tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/sona-24682/articlesSona – The Conversation2023-02-17T10:50:34Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998082023-02-17T10:50:34Z2023-02-17T10:50:34ZHome power backup systems – electrical engineers answer your questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510817/original/file-20230217-25-kdw80u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africans are taking their power supply into their own hands with backup systems that don't rely on power utility Eskom.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s electricity utility Eskom has made it clear that “loadshedding” – rolling scheduled power cuts – <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2023/01/06/eskom-says-stage-3-and-4-load-shedding-pattern-to-continue-indefinitely">isn’t going to end any time soon</a>. This reality, and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement during his annual state of the nation speech on 9 February 2023 that <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-02-09-ramaphosas-tax-incentives-a-ray-of-light-for-solar-panel-roll-out-to-ease-sas-energy-crisis/">tax incentives for solar power use</a> are imminent, mean that many people <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">are considering</a> alternative electricity supply systems for their homes.</p>
<p>But deciding on the best system isn’t a simple matter. There’s a bewildering array of jargon to sift through and many elements to consider, from the right kind of inverter to the size of your solar panels. </p>
<p>We are electrical engineers who are working on a standalone charger for small electric vehicles with the <a href="https://sanedi.org.za/">South African National Energy Development Institute</a> as part of the <a href="https://www.leap-re.eu/">Long-Term Joint European Union - African Union Research and Innovation Partnership on Renewable Energy</a>. The way the charger is designed resembles the sort of system needed for domestic power cut solutions. So, we’re able to answer a few questions for those who feel overwhelmed by the options. Our full and detailed instructions for designing a loadshedding system are <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UGY-cR-HHXbmjFXhyJVvWlrpax9CbAqw/view">available here</a>.</p>
<h2>What is an inverter?</h2>
<p>This is a key component of any alternative power system. It’s an electronic device that changes direct current (like energy stored in a battery) into alternating current (power for your home).</p>
<p>There are a few kinds of inverters. Some are grid-tied (synchronous) with Eskom’s power grid. They are typically used with solar systems that augment the Eskom supply. But they are not suitable for loadshedding solutions. </p>
<p>You also get off-grid (grid-forming) inverters, which form their own mini-grid and can operate during power cuts.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A small white box with wires coming out of it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An inverter system will look something like this.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Suranto W/Shutterstock/Editorial use only</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We recommend a hybrid inverter, which can be grid-tied to augment supply and seamlessly continue operation as an off-grid solution during loadshedding. You want a hybrid inverter that can connect to the grid, battery backup, and to solar panels. To extract the maximum power from the solar panels, be sure to get one that has maximum power point tracking (MPPT). </p>
<h2>What size should the system be?</h2>
<p>This purchase should be a long term investment. The inverter must be able to carry the sum of all the loads that are drawing power at any instant in time and the battery must be able to supply the energy required. </p>
<p>To reduce both the upfront capital cost and operational expenditure, you need to decide what is essential. Lights? Your washing machine? The stove and electric kettle? Then you need to make sure they are as energy efficient as possible before you size the backup system. For example, old incandescent lights use ten times more energy than LED lights do.</p>
<p>This table lists a few typical household items and their power consumption. </p>
<iframe title="[ Power and energy consumption of household appliances ]" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-Oc5GY" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Oc5GY/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="896" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<h2>Why do I need batteries for my system?</h2>
<p>It is theoretically possible for an inverter to generate electricity for household use directly from solar panels. But the supply from panels is intermittent and often not powerful enough to reliably supply power to the varying loads in the house. </p>
<p>To overcome this problem, energy is stored in the batteries. This provides a more stable source of power which responds to demand during loadshedding.</p>
<p>Battery capacity is specified as kWh (kilowatt hours) or Ah (ampere hours). This determines the amount of energy it can supply. A battery with a capacity of 5kWh can theoretically supply 5kW for an hour. But if a lithium battery is discharged beyond 20% of its capacity, it loses capacity and ages faster. A 5kWh battery therefore has an effective capacity of only 4kWh. It can supply 4kW for one hour, or 1kW for four hours. </p>
<p>As a practical example, if you want to power only 20 10W LED lights and a medium sized LED TV, drawing a total of 0.5kW, a 3.5kWh battery will suffice for four hours. </p>
<h2>Are solar panels crucial for a backup system?</h2>
<p>No. The batteries store energy to provide a stable supply to the inverter when needed. Technically, you can use the mains power to charge the batteries, rather than rely on solar panels. Solar panels are merely there to augment the supply of electricity and could give you a bit more range during loadshedding if the sun is shining.</p>
<p>But if everyone installs backup systems without solar panels, we are just using batteries to carry us through power cuts. That increases the load on Eskom outside loadshedding periods, as the batteries must be replenished. This will neuter Eskom’s ability to use loadshedding as a grid management tool. It could <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-grid-is-under-pressure-the-how-and-the-why-170897">destabilise the grid and lead to a complete blackout</a>.</p>
<p>And if, <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/tax-breaks-for-rooftop-solar-experts-weigh-in-on-how-it-could-work-20230214">as is expected</a>, the finance minister introduces tax breaks for solar generation expenses in the budget speech on 22 February, solar panels will have to be part of your setup if you want to benefit from these incentives. </p>
<p>No matter what Enoch Godongwana announces, we think this is a good time to make the switch to a solar powered backup system, for your peace of mind and future savings.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-grid-is-under-pressure-the-how-and-the-why-170897">South Africa's power grid is under pressure: the how and the why</a>
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<h2>How much does it all cost?</h2>
<p>Inverter prices are falling as the market grows, and vary across suppliers. Inverters cost about R3,000 (about US$165) per kW for bottom of the range, and closer to R7,000 (about US$380) per kW for top of the range. Most households will get by with a 3kW to 5kW inverter, if its loads are managed well, costing between R9,000 (around $US490) and R35,000 (about US$1,915). </p>
<p>Lithium (LiFePO4) batteries also vary in cost but normally retail for about R5,000 (about US$270) to R7,000 per kWh. Most households will get by with a 5kWh to 10kWh battery if the loads are optimised and managed well. So you’re looking at a cost of between R25,000 (around US$1,370) and R70,000 (US$3,830 or so) for the batteries.</p>
<p>Solar panels tend to range from R8,000 (about US$440) to R10,000 (around US$550) per kWp (a measure of how high the panels’ power output is). Again, they’re not crucial, but are necessary if you want the system to pay for itself over time. </p>
<h2>Can I install this system myself?</h2>
<p>No, unless you’re a certified electrician. The inverter needs to be installed into the distribution board and the cost will depend on how many of your circuit breakers need to be moved to the backup as well as how easy the solution is to install; installation typically ranges from R10,000 to R20,000 (just about US$1100). The inverter must be approved by the municipality if you want to feed back into the grid. Installing the solar panels is separate, and costs vary widely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Deciding on the best system isn’t a simple matter. There’s a bewildering array of jargon to sift through and many elements to consider.MJ (Thinus) Booysen, Professor in Engineering, Chair in the Internet of Things, Stellenbosch UniversityArnold Rix, Senior Lecturer, Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1313992020-02-07T15:33:29Z2020-02-07T15:33:29ZCynical South Africans are unlikely to be moved by Ramaphosa’s next big speech<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314228/original/file-20200207-27564-1lfq3jf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has to inspire confidence amid growing scepticism.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The spotlight will be firmly on South African President Cyril Ramaphosa as he runs the gauntlet of delivering the annual state of the nation address on behalf of the governing party, African National Congress (ANC), and his government on Thursday. </p>
<p>This year’s speech is light-years removed from the promise of a new beginning he offered in his first state of the nation address in <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2018-02-16-a-new-dawn-president-cyril-ramaphosas-maiden-sona/">February 2018</a>. This was delivered soon after he took over from Jacob Zuma. The hope then was that constructive new policy initiatives and definitive repair of damaged state institutions would emerge.</p>
<p>In contrast, all indications are that South Africa’s political and financial landscape is parched. Yet it is Ramaphosa’s job in the state of the nation address to highlight the silver linings. It is, after all, a <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2019/06/27/cabinet-approves-committee-to-oversee-2021-local-government-elections">pre-election year</a>. South Africans go to the polls to elect new local government in 2021. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa will undermine his own prospects as well as those of the ANC if he and the governing party cannot create reasons for voters to keep on believing that the ANC is able to bring change. </p>
<p>This won’t be easy given the odds are stacked against the government having what it takes to fix South Africa’s problems. There is growing cynicism among citizens – and good reason for the despondence. </p>
<p>Many of the country’s problems have become intractable: political and economic conditions in the country remain stark. And the areas of action and hope identified last year have not responded favourably to the promises that were made and plans that were announced. </p>
<p>In fact, there has been regress.</p>
<p>Despite this, the president needs to present new approaches and put a fresh spin on the ANC’s stabs at stubborn problems. He needs to offer assurances that the core problems are being addressed on a scale that will make an actual difference.</p>
<h2>The list</h2>
<p>The set of <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Opinion/ferial-haffajee-three-reports-signal-global-loss-of-trust-in-ramaphosas-reform-drive-eish-20191203-2">interrelated issues</a> that beg to be addressed definitively in this year’s speech, Ramaphosa’s fourth, include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>poor economic growth that is draining jobs instead of creating new opportunities, </p></li>
<li><p>a handful of state-owned enterprises that continue to bleed the fiscus and sabotage the economy,</p></li>
<li><p>Unacceptably high levels of crime, femicide and general lawlessness,</p></li>
<li><p>An expansive civil service that eats up at least <a href="https://citizen.co.za/business/1815729/sas-whale-sized-public-sector-wage-bill-approaches-a-cliff/">35% of the national budget</a>,</p></li>
<li><p>an energy crisis that’s demoralising the citizenry and sapping business confidence, and</p></li>
<li><p>concerns that land reform proceeds haphazardly, torn between possible lapses in constitutionalism and an executive that wants to score political points - while many citizens remain deprived.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>This set of problems, as a minimum, need definitive announcements that will show that the ANC government is capable of extracting South Africa from the quagmire. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa and his government need to reallocate funds to make the necessary interventions work, and ensure improved state efficiency and effectiveness. </p>
<p>It is a tall order.</p>
<h2>But who is in charge?</h2>
<p>The challenge to deliver a persuasive speech comes firstly in the context of intense doubts as to whether Ramaphosa is truly in charge of the ANC. Or who else is, if he’s not.</p>
<p>ANC secretary general Ace Magashule and his faction, acting as the actual political opposition, has only got a fraction of the popular support that <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2019-02-24-voters-like-cyril-ramaphosa-more-than-they-like-the-anc-survey/">Ramaphosa has</a>. Despite agitation against Ramaphosa within the ANC, he remains the pull factor that brings the party more popular support than it would have without him. He helps the ANC retain its dominance.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/public-approval-is-ramaphosas-only-defence-against-his-enemies-in-the-anc-130485">Public approval is Ramaphosa's only defence against his enemies in the ANC</a>
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<p>But this may not last. His acrimonious legal fight with the country’s <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/public-protector-is-not-rogue-mkhwebanes-lawyer-tells-court-20200204">Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane</a> could very well dent this. </p>
<p>The ANC’s factionally indulgent policy wars, whether on land reform, or stake-holding and mandate of the SA Reserve Bank, also advance the perceptions of ANC weakness and leadership indecisiveness.</p>
<p>Major surprises during the state of the nation address have also been minimised by the fact that the ANC has been through a thorough internal process to identify key policy areas, and what it wants to focus on.</p>
<p>This process started on January 8 when Ramaphosa delivered the ANC’s annual anniversary statement. It highlighted the priorities of the ANC-in-government <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2020/01/11/january-8-statement-the-anc-s-priorities-for-2020">for 2020</a>. </p>
<p>This was followed by a meeting of the ANC’s national executive committee, the party’s highest decision-making body in between its five-yearly national conferences. Speaking on the outcome Ramaphosa assured South Africa that the party deliberations <a href="https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/cyril-ramaphosas-remarks-on-anc-nec-lekgotla">had</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>forged a clear and concrete programme to address the challenges the nation faces. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>He admitted that the ANC had “fallen short” in implementing its policies and had “devised realistic measures to address these”.</p>
<p>The next step in the process was the adoption of <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-01-22-in-a-search-for-solutions-anc-nec-lekgotla-finds-itself-at-a-policy-dead-end/">a set of proposals</a> by the ANC’s national executive lekgotla. This annual gathering precedes the cabinet lekgotla and informs the agenda of the government for the year ahead. </p>
<p>The plans that emerged were recognisable from previous plans. These included the proposal to rationalise state-owned enterprises. For example, the unbundling of Eskom, the troubled power utility, seemed to gain momentum from the national executive committee and lekgotla deliberations. </p>
<p>What exactly the outcome will be remains unclear, however, as the labour federation Cosatu, has tabled its own plan. This is against unbundling Eskom. Cosatu is the ANC’s governing alliance partner, along with the South African Communist Party. Its proposal for the power utility appears to be <a href="https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fast-news/ramaphosa-open-to-eskom-debt-proposal/">gaining momentum</a>. </p>
<p>Further signs that the ANC is still not singing from one hymn book came days earlier when Gwede Mantashe, the Minister of Minerals and Energy and in the top leadership of the ANC, floated the idea broadly of establishing a <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2020-02-03-mantashe-drops-electricity-bombshell-at-mining-indaba/">new government-owned electricity company</a> and permitting businesses to generate power. </p>
<p>All this points to the fact that energy can be expected to be one of the state of the nation address pivots.</p>
<h2>Limited options</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address options are limited. Shrinking numbers of South Africans believe the ANC has solutions that would <a href="https://www.biznews.com/wef/2020/01/21/edelman-trust-barometer-capitalism-under-fire">justify trust in the government</a>.</p>
<p>A small way out for the ANC in 2020 going into 2021 will be to ensure that civil servants remain in their jobs. That will go a long way to ensuring that Cosatu remains a loyal governing alliance partner. </p>
<p>Another way out for governing party is to make sure that the social grant system, which benefits <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-social-grants-arent-eradicating-malnutrition-72020">17 millions South Africans</a>, remains lubricated and that Eskom keeps the lights on. </p>
<p>But given the enormity of what needs to be done, and what Ramaphosa can actually achieve, the state of the nation address is unlikely to confound the cynics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131399/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Booysen is affiliated with Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA).</span></em></p>The challenge to deliver a persuasive speech comes firstly in the context of intense doubts as to whether President Ramaphosa is truly in charge of the ANC.Susan Booysen, Research director at Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra), Visiting Professor and Professor Emeritus, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1297622020-01-12T13:57:17Z2020-01-12T13:57:17ZRamaphosa fails to show leadership as difficult and decisive year looms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309547/original/file-20200112-103974-14erqv4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Cyril Ramaphosa's speech failed to inspire confidence.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/ANC handout</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the eve of the statement marking the 108th birthday of the governing African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s finance minister Tito Mboweni <a href="https://twitter.com/tito_mboweni/status/1215441642892746752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1215441642892746752&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iol.co.za%2Fbusiness-report%2Feconomy%2Ffinance-minister-tweets-warnings-about-sas-structural-economic-reforms-40357595">tweeted</a>: </p>
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<p>If you cannot effect deep structural economic reforms, then game over! Stay as you are and you are downgraded to Junk Status! The consequences are dire. Your choice… </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Similar sentiments have been voiced by many well respected commentators concerned about the state of South Africa’s economy as well as its politics – and the ability of the ANC to provide effective leadership to <a href="https://www.news24.com/Analysis/the-anc-at-108-the-sick-man-of-south-african-politics-20200109">address the major challenges it faces</a>. </p>
<p>South Africa faces perhaps many more challenges than it did in the build up to the new constitution of 1994. These include a <a href="https://theconversation.com/tough-times-and-bad-advice-are-holding-back-south-africas-economy-125990">moribund economy</a> and a governing party that is faction-ridden and ideologically disorientated. This is blamed for enabling much of the massive corruption and nepotism in the country best described as <a href="https://beta.mg.co.za/article/2018-09-14-00-definition-of-state-capture/">“state capture”</a>.</p>
<p>What South Africa needs is a reformer who can redirect its politics to address issues related to economic growth and development, political stability, social cohesion, service delivery and several issues related to governance, management and administration. </p>
<p>It should all start with President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC, which he leads.
He had the opportunity to set the tone this weekend when he <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NqtWFqmOH0">delivered</a> the ANC national executive committee’s January 8 statement to mark the party’s birthday. Such <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/anc-january-8th-statements">statements</a> are viewed as being important because they provide direction for cabinet discussions ahead of the new legislative sitting of parliament as well as the <a href="https://www.gov.za/state-nation-address">state of the nation address</a> delivered in February every year by the President. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa was expected to lay out the political direction for South Africa during 2020. Unfortunately, his speech failed to hit the mark. It didn’t offer any radical new ideas on the structural reforms hinted at by Mboweni. Ramaphosa showed a complete lack of party as well as political leadership. His inability to be bold and decisive about what needs to be done suggests that he is increasingly becoming a victim of his own party’s inability to deal with the difficult circumstances of the current negative state of affairs in the country.</p>
<h2>What was missing</h2>
<p>There was nothing new in the speech outside of the existing policy and strategy of the ANC. The core of his presentation were the usual talking points about rebuilding the state, reinforcing the state-owned enterprises, the battle against corruption and state capture, social cohesion, and economic growth and development. </p>
<p>Despite an emphasis on making state companies, specifically the power utility Eskom work, and making progress with land reform, no fresh proposals were made. More rhetoric, a lack of strategic vision and political survival at all costs seems to be the name of the game. </p>
<p>This is a far cry from what’s needed.</p>
<p>Even more difficult times lie ahead for Ramaphosa. His <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2020/01/11/january-8-statement-the-anc-s-priorities-for-2020">promise</a> that this year will see decisive action against those implicated in widespread corruption – among them influential party leaders – will no doubt add to his precarious position in the party. </p>
<p>The ANC’s 108th birthday bash provided fresh evidence that Ramaphosa faces a very difficult political environment in the party. There were expectations that about 35 000 people would turn up. In the event only 11 500 arrived to hear him deliver his speech. Some party leaders bemoaned the <a href="https://twitter.com/niehaus_carl/status/1215963887935291394">poor attendance</a>. </p>
<p>This shows that, beyond any doubt, 2020 is going to be dominated by the battle for control of the ANC. That battle will gain a lot of momentum towards the party’s <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/no-ngc-can-remove-ramaphosa-mantashe-20190510">national general council</a> which is due to be held in the <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/no-ngc-can-remove-ramaphosa-mantashe-20190510">middle of this year</a>. The national general conference is held midway between party conferences, to debate the <a href="http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/understanding-the-ancs-national-general-council-ngc/">“strategic organisational and political issues facing the movement”</a>. </p>
<p>There are already those who are already beginning to shows signs of mounting a challenge against him. These include those implicated in <a href="https://www.sastatecapture.org.za/">state capture</a>, among them <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2019-08-28-state-capture-inquiry-hears-about-ace-magashule-and-the-asbestos-heist/">ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule</a>, as well as other disgruntled members of the ANC presenting themselves as a “coalition of the wounded”. </p>
<p>The outcome of this battle will have far reaching implications for the future for South Africa, and its ability to deal with its numerous challenges.</p>
<h2>Decisive year ahead</h2>
<p>The year ahead promises to be a very difficult but also a very decisive year for South Africa. Is Ramaphosa the man to take the country into a new dawn, or is he going to be the victim of a well-organised campaign to disrupt his intended initiatives? </p>
<p>This year will provide the perspective on the way forward. If strong forces within the ANC get their way, someone other than Ramaphosa will present the January 8 statement in 2021. </p>
<p>For ordinary South Africans, this presents a very difficult scenario, with the strong possibility that the economy will slide into recession.</p>
<p>This, plus amending article 25 of the constitution to enable the expropriation of land without compensation, will result in even lower investment levels, higher levels of political instability and bigger challenges in terms of food security. </p>
<p>This does does not augur well for the future of the country and the well-being of its citizens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andre Duvenhage does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The year ahead promises to be a very difficult but also a very decisive year for South Africa. Is President Ramaphosa equal to the challenge?Andre Duvenhage, Research Director, North-West UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1296442020-01-09T17:09:27Z2020-01-09T17:09:27ZANC’s anniversary statement – damp squib or new benchmark for South Africa?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309281/original/file-20200109-80148-8j3rgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa and the governing African National Congress. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Nic Bothma</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The statement issued by the African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s governing party, each January to mark the anniversary of its launch in 1912, is many things to many people. It is a multipurpose vehicle to celebrate the party’s milestones as well as to mobilise and lure followers. It is both a sermon and a show to keep the faithful close. It also provides a rare window into the state of the organisation. </p>
<p>The statement meshes into ANC election campaigns. The messages and slogans reflect what the organisation believes is necessary and useful to say. It plasters over cracks and is the stage for birthday praise songs and public relations exercises, rather than a frank assessment of the party’s performance and its government.</p>
<p>Yet, year after year the statement also reveals the soul of a former liberation movement that has been <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.18772/12015108844">enduring in government</a>. </p>
<p>Come Saturday 11 January 2020, when the party celebrates its 108th birthday, the statement will be big on popular mobilisation and keeping the poor and the young close. It will reflect on 108 years of the party’s existence and 25 years in power, and prepare for going into a fourth set of <a href="https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/south-africa/2019-06-27-cabinet-sets-up-committee-to-prepare-for-2021-municipal-election/">local government elections in 2021</a>.</p>
<h2>Expectations</h2>
<p>This time around the prevailing political, <a href="https://theconversation.com/tough-times-and-bad-advice-are-holding-back-south-africas-economy-125990">economic</a> and government crises add layers of expectations to the January 8 anniversary statement. It will be interpreted as a test for the presidency of Cyril Ramaphosa and his command of the fractious governing party.</p>
<p>It will also be watched for signs of the president’s and his party’s ability to remain faithful to their 2019 election promises of ethical and effective governance, rooting out corruption, and for iterations on already agreed policy directions for the party and its government.</p>
<p>Given that the January 8 statement is not a state-of-the-nation address or a national budget statement, the most that may be hoped for is for it to provide evidence of a president who is confident, clear and courageous. That means a leader who can lead the governing party and the state to give effect to the 2019 statement, which confirms government policy and cleanup priorities for the year. Ramaphosa has allowed himself to be held back, so far, by the tenuous scale of his victory as party leader at the ANC’s national conference <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-anc-has-a-new-leader-but-south-africa-remains-on-a-political-precipice-89248">in 2017</a>, and the internal threats to his authority. His leadership came to be seen as weak and wavering.</p>
<p>Even if the January 8 statement is a collective document by the ANC’s national executive committee, its highest decision-making body in between its five-yearly elective conferences, Ramaphosa’s tone and choice of words in his delivery will give clues as to the state of the organisation. This at a time of debilitating disunity and internal proxy-policy contests for position and influence <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-01-07-anc-anniversary-during-a-time-of-crisis/">over the state and its patronage networks</a>.</p>
<p>The ANC’s policy directions to government are by now agreed and confirmed. They have already been announced in the January 8 statements he delivered in 2018 and 2019, even if they are continuously used as weapons in factional party warfare against him. </p>
<p>For example, he is accused of failing to implement agreed party resolutions regarding the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2018-12-04-parliament-gives-go-ahead-for-land-expropriation-without-compensation/">expropriation of land without compensation</a>, and to <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2019-06-06-no-nationalisation-of-reserve-bank-anc-top-six">nationalise the country’s Reserve Bank</a>. The processes to change land policy are unfolding in conformity with the policy resolutions, even if incrementally. The Reserve Bank resolution is tame enough to follow.</p>
<p>These policy directions have been transferred into government processes, and have been aligned with dire socio-economic needs and requirements for stable government. The questions that remain are the speed and determination of implementation. Ramaphosa’s delivery of the address could go a long way to confirming his ownership of “contested” policies, and his command of the ANC.</p>
<p>Other watermarks that will define the 2020 statement will be improved public service and administration, as promised in January 2019. And so will the trapeze act to restructure and rescue state-owned enterprises. Such a restructuring has to be done without alienating labour, in particular the ANC’s governing alliance partners – the <a href="http://www.cosatu.org.za/">Congress of South African Trade Unions</a> and the <a href="https://www.sacp.org.za/">South African Communist Party</a>.</p>
<h2>Tough task</h2>
<p>The ANC’s task of positioning the 2020 statement will be complicated. There is hardly an angle, spin or tactic that has not yet been offered in the January 8 statements to date, especially in the 25 years since it assumed power. The increasingly cynical citizens have <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/anc-january-8th-statements">heard it all before</a>.</p>
<p>With only minor exceptions, each statement has had an overarching theme, pertinent to the times, to help mobilise for organisational unity and people’s support of the ANC. These two frequent <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/anc-january-8th-statements">past themes</a> also reflect problems in today’s ANC. </p>
<h2>Electioneering</h2>
<p>The 2020 January 8 statement will also be a typical pre-election-year statement. Expect emphasis on mobilisation and unity, and reassurances that the ANC remains on the side of the poor. All this despite lacklustre government performance, corruption and squandering of state resources.</p>
<p>A foretaste of the 2021 local elections could already be seen in ANC top officials saying that the statement will aim at <a href="http://www.702.co.za/podcasts/176/the-best-of-breakfast-with-bongani-bingwa/278075/the-anc-wants-to-revive-hope-ahead-of-8-jan-statement">instilling and reviving hope</a>. </p>
<p>The core ANC anniversary theme will be to bring the people back into its fold, <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2019-05-16-the-2019-elections-partial-endorsements/">even if this task is progressively difficult</a>. </p>
<p>It will find the statistics to persuade South Africans that progress has been definitive, that the state can still turn the corner – just needing the ongoing endorsement of a former liberation movement that is valiantly challenging the monster of past injustices.</p>
<p>The electorate has become increasingly cynical and distrusting of the ANC government’s ability to <a href="https://www.bbrief.co.za/2018/03/06/2018-edelman-trust-barometer-reveals-a-further-drop-in-trust-in-south-africa/">give substance to its aspirational statements</a>. But when it comes to elections and voter choices, the party remains largely unchallenged. This confidence is likely to be tangible in the January 8 statement.</p>
<h2>Towards a real “New Dawn”?</h2>
<p>The task for the ANC is to show that the arrogance of wielding such enormous power, despite its <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2019-05-16-the-2019-elections-partial-endorsements/">fractiousness and fragility as an organisation</a>, does not further contaminate government. That every ounce of time and resources is expended working for the people of South Africa. Only if and when that happens can the now clichéd <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2019-03-20-from-new-dawn-to-dust-the-implosion-of-ramaphoria/">New Dawn</a> promised by President Ramaphosa become reality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Booysen is affiliated with Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA).</span></em></p>The most that may be hoped for from the party’s annual statement is evidence of a president who is confident, clear and courageous.Susan Booysen, Research director at Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra), Visiting Professor and Professor Emeritus, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/920482018-02-20T09:55:25Z2018-02-20T09:55:25ZRamaphosa is a breath of fresh air. But South Africans can’t relax<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206943/original/file-20180219-75990-tvx9rd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of parliament applaud South Africa's new president Cyril Ramaphosa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2018/02/16/must-read-president-ramaphosa-s-state-of-the-nation-address">State of the Nation Address</a> by South Africa’s new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, heralds a new dawn for the country. After a decade of maladministration, venal politics, corruption and the wrecking of a number of important state institutions, any alternative would have filled South Africans with optimism. </p>
<p>There is little doubt that, even if they are dealing with the same party, the leadership, determination and discipline that Ramaphosa will bring to their politics will be very different to the last decade under Jacob Zuma. </p>
<p>Although South Africans should be thankful for the persistence and courage of opposition parties, civil society, courts and <a href="http://amabhungane.co.za/">media</a>, an obvious fact shouldn’t be forgotten. Ultimately it was the ANC itself that was the agent of change. The ANC, not the Constitutional Court, nor the vocal opposition Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), nor the media, nor South Africa’s citizens, brought Zuma’s calamitous and corrupt <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2018-02-14-president-jacob-zuma-resigns/">reign to an end</a>.</p>
<p>Laying aside the ecstatic optimism that’s marked the end of the Zuma era, and looking at the detail of Ramaphosa’s speech in parliament, the question that comes to minds is: what does it promise? </p>
<h2>No ordinary speech</h2>
<p>First, this was not any old ordinary state of the nation address. It was the speech of an incoming president laying out his vision, not really a programme of what government hopes to achieve over the coming year. The hope, sense of renewal and determination was evident throughout: to root out corruption; rebuild state capacity; enable jobs; support education; re-industrialise the economy. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa said he would personally drive and ensure throughput. What a breath of fresh air on a number of levels: responsible leadership; concrete ideas; and, finally, a speech actually written by a leader.</p>
<p>Second, this state of the nation address promises serious action to stabilise the state as well as to spur South Africa’s depressed economy. But growth, development, reducing inequality and turning the tide on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-lesser-known-and-scarier-facts-about-unemployment-in-south-africa-83055">rampant unemployment</a> requires a capable state. Ramaphosa clearly understands this. He has a mammoth task ahead of him. Fortunately, he’s not short of ideas. He:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>focused at length on making 2018 the year of turning the tide on corruption;</p></li>
<li><p>had specific points on how to intervene decisively to sort out the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2015-08-06-state-owned-enterprises-chaos-inside-a-mess-wrapped-in-politics/#.WT_1gOuGPIU">parlous state of state owned enterprises</a>. In particular, he accepts that many of the problems at the state owned enterprises are structural. For example, he said that it was vital to remove directors from having any role in procurement. </p></li>
<li><p>insisted on reviewing the size of the state bureaucracy;</p></li>
<li><p>hinted that nonperforming ministers will lose their jobs; and</p></li>
<li><p>stressed the need for government to lead in creating an environment of stability and certainty. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Third, the speech was carefully balanced to keep the markets happy, but also with an eye on rectifying South Africa’s past injustices. For example, he talked about the need to expropriate land without compensation. But he was careful in his wording, adding that it had to be done in a way that “increases agricultural production and ensures food security”. </p>
<p>South Africans produced a collective sigh of relief. A tumultuous era has ended and there’s a silver lining to the cloud that has been hanging over the country.</p>
<h2>Need for vigilance</h2>
<p>South Africans shouldn’t relax. Politicians must be held accountable. But for this to truly work, the country needs to change its electoral system. The current balance of power means that citizens aren’t able to hold their political representatives accountable, including their president. It is no accident that the executive, and Zuma in particular, were able to use parliament to make a mockery of citizens’ concerns and the constitution.</p>
<p>The party-list <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-needs-electoral-reform-but-presidents-powers-need-watching-88820">proportional representation system</a> means that South Africans elect representatives who don’t have any real link to their needs and interests in the areas in which they live and work. Instead, candidates are nominated and elected on party lists. This has rendered parliament a lame-duck. Decisions in parliament aren’t made by the people’s representatives – they’re made by <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2012-04-20-sas-electoral-system-fails-the-people">the party in power</a>. </p>
<p>This also means that parliament, not the people, elects the president. This <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-needs-electoral-reform-but-presidents-powers-need-watching-88820">needs to be rectified</a>. </p>
<p>The events of the last two months only prove a depressing reality: the only way citizens can really get rid of a <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/president-zuma-has-gone-rogue-says-barbara-hogan-8440986">‘rogue president’</a> and a <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/eff-looking-forward-to-date-with-constitutional-delinquent-zuma-20171229">‘constitutional delinquent’</a> is via the strange process of the liberation party undertaking a ‘recall’ of one of its <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09718923.2014.11893352?journalCode=rjss20">‘deployees’</a>. </p>
<p>South Africans have come a long way since 1994, but the country’s constitutional and political institutions are products of their time – a time of real, and understandable fear about ensuring that the country never returned to the horrors of apartheid. The ironic result is that ordinary citizens – especially as represented in parliament – don’t have the means to affect change.</p>
<p>The democratic miracle is stillborn. The country cannot mature into a full-blown democracy until major reforms are undertaken. If Ramaphosa really wants to seize this new dawn, if he really wants to change the course of South Africa’s democratic history, he needs to think even more boldly.</p>
<p>The reconstruction of South Africa’s shattered state is vital. But as he does so he could also reconfigure it. It needs deep, structural change to properly empower the people to hold political representatives accountable. Acting in this way would trigger two further developments: the ANC would, finally, have to transform itself from being a liberation movement into a political party; and citizens could start to realise that the party is not equivalent to the state.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92048/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lawrence Hamilton receives funding from the National Research Foundation and the British Academy. He is the author of Are South Africans Free? </span></em></p>A tumultuous era has ended and there’s a silver lining to the cloud that has been hanging over South Africa.Lawrence Hamilton, SARChI/Newton Research Professor in Political Theory, Wits and Cambridge, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/909552018-02-07T14:41:32Z2018-02-07T14:41:32ZSouth Africa’s future hinges on Ramaphosa’s strategic skills<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205323/original/file-20180207-74509-d1kson.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Deputy President of South Africa and leader of the country's governing party, the ANC.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCIS</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s 2018 State of the Nation address by the president of South Africa has been <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2018/02/07/curiosity-confusion-and-comedy-after-sona-postponed">postponed</a>. This unprecedented step makes it clear that the country is seeing the final days of Jacob Zuma as president although it may take a day or a week or two before things are finalised.</p>
<p>What’s important is that Zuma isn’t allowed to detract from the momentum that newly elected ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa has started to build. This has included a successful trip to Davos where he unequivocally pulled the carpet from under the <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/we-have-excess-power-and-no-money-ramaphosa-on-nuclear-plan-12934073">nuclear power programme</a> favoured by Zuma.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa has been working diligently to corral Zuma’s remaining freedom of action. Zuma was finally persuaded to establish a <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/state-capture-commission-must-investigate-all-state-corruption-focus-on-guptas-20180125">commission of enquiry into state capture</a> and Ramaphosa started restoring credibility to the management of <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/1789190/new-eskom-ceo-and-board-chair-appointed-koko-and-singh-others-to-be-removed-says-presidency/">state owned enterprises</a>. </p>
<p>The momentum built by Ramaphosa seems sufficient to avoid the most pressing concern, the spectre of a <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/moodys-now-places-sa-inc-on-downgrade-review-20171129">downgrade</a> of South Africa’s long term local currency debt rating by the rating agency Moody’s. Such a step would trigger South Africa being excluded from <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/sa-faces-many-economic-headwinds-12486144">Citi’s World Governance Bond Index</a>. RMB Morgan Stanley projects a potential <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/sa-faces-many-economic-headwinds-12486144">outflow of US $5 billion</a> if this happened.</p>
<p>But his freedom of action is severely constrained by his narrow victory during the ANC’s leadership elections and the divisions within the party’s top leadership. The party has no choice but to design an early exit strategy for Zuma, or suffer significant political damage during the 2019 elections.</p>
<p>A downgrade would constrain growth and severely affect the ANC’s 2019 election prospects. Ramaphosa needs his own mandate, which only the 2019 national elections can deliver. </p>
<h2>Economic growth</h2>
<p>In November last year Ramaphosa outlined an economic plan aimed at <a href="https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2017/11/14/ramaphosa-new-deal-for-sa/">generating jobs and economic growth and tackling inequality</a>. The plan set a growth target of 3% for 2018, rising to 5% by 2023. </p>
<p>For its part the Reserve Bank has forecast the economy will grow by a measly 1.4% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. The International Monetary Fund is even more pessimistic, forecasting growth of 1.1% for this year. </p>
<p>Nothing is more important for South Africa – and Ramaphosa as the country’s incoming president – than growth and translating that growth into employment creation. That, in turn, requires foreign and domestic investment, which is only possible with policy certainty and rapid movement to a new leadership. It also requires a positive partnership with the private sector.</p>
<p>Assuming Zuma’s exit is imminent, serious consideration needs to be given to the team that Ramaphosa must put in place to help him achieve the economic turnaround he envisages. This brings us to the need for a cabinet reshuffle, including the appointment of a credible minister of finance. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>South Africa has a cabinet which is double the size required. A few ministers, such as Rob Davies at trade and industry and Naledi Pandor in science and technology, have established their credibility. But a large number of the current cabinet shouldn’t be considered for inclusion under a Ramaphosa administration. </p>
<p>The most important post is the minister of finance. Given the fact that former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene seems to have moved on, it is likely that either Pravin Gordhan or his then deputy Mcebesi Jonas will be invited back.</p>
<p>Ramaphosa needs to turns his narrow victory into a positive outcome. And he must convince non-voting ANC supporters who abandoned the ANC under Zuma to return to the fold of the governing party in 2019. </p>
<p>It will also depend on legal processes – such as the various probes into corruption and state capture – to strip out the internal contradictions within the top leadership of the ANC.</p>
<p>Long term voting trends indicate declining support for the ANC and as things stand, a divided ANC remains a plump target for opposition parties. It could see support decline from its current 62% nationally by around 10 percentage points in 2019 if that trend is not reversed. The impact of these developments were set out in a recent book <a href="http://www.jonathanball.co.za/component/virtuemart/fate-of-the-nation-detail?Itemid=6">Fate of the Nation</a> that included political and economic scenarios to 2034.</p>
<p>A more positive party future requires the ANC to rapidly rediscover its unity although this seems unlikely in the short term. And here is the nub – as much as the traditionalist faction is associated with corruption and state capture, it also represents a strong ideological current that could still derail the party and even lead to it splintering. </p>
<p>Ramaphosa has been dealt a weak hand but he has proven to be a consummate strategist. The next few days and weeks will be crucial and are likely to determine South Africa’s future for several years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90955/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jakkie Cilliers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Jacob Zuma shouldn’t be allowed to detract from the momentum that Cyril Ramaphosa, the new president of the ruling ANC, has started to build.Jakkie Cilliers, Chair of the Board of Trustees and Head of African Futures & Innovation at the Institute for Security Studies. Extraordinary Professor in the Centre of Human Rights, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728322017-02-10T16:21:40Z2017-02-10T16:21:40ZZuma’s speech: the story of a country that’s fallen for the ‘politics of the belly’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156387/original/image-20170210-23347-1ld08dm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Jacob Zuma during his 2017 state of the nation address to a joint sitting of the National Assembly and the National Council of Provinces.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Sumaya Hisham</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africans have yet again been treated to a grotesque bastardisation of the idea of a <a href="http://www.gov.za/SONA2017">state of the nation address</a>.</p>
<p>In its proper sense, a state of the nation address ought to be a signpost down the road of history. By history we mean the serious business of moulding society.</p>
<p>Leaders who are in the business of shaping society begin by articulating a clear vision of the future into which they wish to take their societies.</p>
<p>In this sense, a state of the nation address offers the opportunity to assess the distance travelled from the starting point to a visualised destination.</p>
<p>Such a down-the-road assessment must do two things: gauge the national mood honestly as an expression of the people’s commitment to the direction their country is taking, and lay out a practical programme of action to inspire the nation towards a better future.</p>
<p>It is not <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-zuma-idUSKBN15O2FQ">the spectacle</a> of white shirts – parliamentary security – wrestling with red overalls – worn by the Economic Freedom Fighters – that rendered Jacob Zuma’s 2017 state of the nation address grotesque. Nor is it the surrealism of Zuma’s female ministers hurling insults in parliament that were being broadcast on national television. It is its historical meaninglessness, its dishonesty, and its deceptive big-bangism.</p>
<h2>Zuma’s empty speeches</h2>
<p>His <a href="http://www.gov.za/SONA2017">speeches</a> are historically meaningless in that none have been a milestone of any professed historical mission. Unlike other presidential hopefuls in the civilised world, Zuma did not climb to the highest office on the back of a grand promise – to make South Africa great again, for example.</p>
<p>Zuma rode to South Africa’s seat of power, the Union Buildings, on a bandwagon of<a href="http://ewn.co.za/2015/10/19/Zuma-I-am-a-victim-of-unregulated-media"> victimhood</a>, dancing and singing songs that glorify the machine gun. </p>
<figure>
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</figure>
<p>What he would do when he reached the seat of power remained a vague idea whose fragments were scattered in the politically sozzled heads of all manner of his fellow joyriders.</p>
<p>It is for this reason that, for the past eight years of Zuma’s reign, it is hard to tell what exactly have his successive state of the nation addresses have been about. We have forgotten them so quickly because they are not part of any identifiable historical mission. They all fell into an ahistorical vacuum.</p>
<p>When Zuma goes, future generations will struggle to find a <em>telos</em> (purpose or goal) associated with his tenure as president of South Africa. The best they will probably find are traces of <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/329757088/State-of-Capture-Public-Protector-Report#from_embed">kleptocratic proclivities</a>.</p>
<p>The dishonesty of this year’s state of the nation address is conspicuous by its nakedness. Towards the end of last year Statistics South Africa reported that unemployment in South Africa had <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-can-expect-zero-growth-its-problems-are-largely-homemade-62943">risen to 27%</a> based on the narrow definition which excludes discouraged work seekers. This significant piece of negative information was deliberately omitted from Zuma’s address.</p>
<p>The idea was to paint a rosy picture that fits into the propaganda of <a href="http://www.sanews.gov.za/features/national-development-plan-moving-south-africa-forward">“moving South Africa forward”</a>. It is this mentality that made Zuma make the projected lacklustre <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/02/09/zuma-upbeat-on-economic-growth">economic growth of 1.3%</a> sound like progress – even though last year he told us his government aimed to register an annual <a href="http://www.gov.za/speeches/sona-numbers-%E2%80%93-february-2016-11-feb-2016-0000">growth rate of 5% by 2019</a>. A pipe dream indeed!</p>
<h2>An honest account of the state of the nation</h2>
<p>For a state of the nation address, honesty ought to be expressed through a truthful representation of the actual conditions and feelings of the people. The true picture of South Africa right now, which Zuma used his speech to conceal, is that of a depressed society under a <a href="https://theconversation.com/ministers-call-for-zuma-to-resign-signals-internal-rebellion-in-south-africas-cabinet-69663">directionless government</a> that is mired in <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-patronage-and-state-capture-spell-trouble-for-south-africa-64704">endless scandals</a>, in a context of rising unemployment and hopelessness among the young and old.</p>
<p>South Africans are living through a period of profound social confusion. The rich and the poor are united by their fear of the future under a menacing and out-of-touch leadership. Only those who benefit from <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-state-capture-is-a-regressive-step-for-any-society-56837">Zuma’s patronage network</a> feign optimism. These are the scoundrels who have been trying very hard to divert the nation’s attention from government corruption to the bogyman called <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/2017/01/23/Disinformation-scandal-the-truth-behind-the-white-monopoly-capital-propaganda-assault">“white monopoly capital.”</a></p>
<p>Zuma’s latest <a href="http://www.gov.za/SONA2017">state of the nation address</a> cannot inspire South Africans due to its essentially deceptive big-bang logic. Its crux is that what could not be done in eight years can be done in <a href="https://www.facebook.com/MailGuardian/posts/1244919475550895">Zuma’s remaining two years</a>. </p>
<p>While South Africans are not hearing the phrase <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2017-02-10-reaction-to-government-radical-stance-on-transformation-outlined-in-sona">“radical socio-economic transformation”</a> for the first time, the suddenness of its promises gives them a window into the head of a president who harbours a fundamental disrespect for the intelligence of the people he leads. He seems to take South Africans for a bunch of gullible ignoramuses who swallow every lie that drops from above.</p>
<p>Platitudes about the need to redistribute land to black people, or for blacks to have a fair share of the economy, have peppered almost every state of the nation address since Zuma took over. But for some weird reason he, although left with only two years in office, expects South Africans to believe that his rosy promises will fall on black people like a big-bang bolt from the blue sky.</p>
<p>While the few already empowered elites of the <a href="http://blackbusinesscouncil.org/">Black Business Council</a> seem set to get a good cut from the announced 30% subcontracting of government’s mega infrastructure projects, there is no pretence in Zuma’s speech that the ANC’s so-called “masses of our people” will get a dignified share – beyond temporary, body-destroying hard labour.</p>
<p>When the gloss of radicalism that covers Zuma’s 2017 state of the nation address has been scratched, South Africans find themselves confronted with the roughness of a president who has lost the plot, a morally hollow man who lies at the centre of the country’s parliamentary chaos. </p>
<p>It is the sad story of an African country whose promising start has been shuttered by what political scientists <a href="http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0745644376.html">call</a> “the politics of the belly.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Prince Mashele does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Zuma’s speech is historically meaningless in that it is not a milestone of any professed historical mission.Prince Mashele, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/544432016-02-10T15:20:29Z2016-02-10T15:20:29ZDoes President Zuma have the courage to do the right thing?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110971/original/image-20160210-12137-1xlt9u5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's Jacob Zuma is president of the country as well as the African National Congress. He is under pressure on all fronts.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Jacob Zuma will have to address two audiences in his 2016 <a href="http://www.gov.za/speeches/state-nation-address-2016-2-feb-2016-1233">State of the Nation Address</a>: the international community and markets on the one hand, and the domestic public on the other.</p>
<p>The fiasco over the firing of Finance Minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-zumas-actions-point-to-shambolic-management-of-south-africas-economy-52174">Nhanhla Nene</a> has increased the risks to the South African economy. As a developing economy it is already feeling the impact of declining demand from China, a turbulent Europe and volatile emerging markets. </p>
<p>As things stand, South African fiscal managers suffer from a credibility malaise. The state of the nation address presents an opportunity for confidence building.</p>
<h2>Fiscal discipline</h2>
<p>The international community possibly has a bouquet of expectations in mind. But these cannot be fully satisfied because they are counterbalanced by domestic expectations. </p>
<p>Top of international expectations is a clear commitment to fiscal discipline - specifically a significant reduction of South Africa’s foreign debt which stands at <a href="http://www.saiia.org.za/opinion-analysis/2015-budget-too-little-too-late-for-south-africas-public-debt">44% </a>of GDP. At the same time, reaffirming the <a href="http://www.gov.za/issues/national-development-plan-2030">National Development Plan</a> would be vital to underscoring policy continuity and predictability. This is the governing African National Congress’s plan to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality.</p>
<p>The domestic audience’s endurance has been tested by a plethora of political intrigues. These include waves of <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa/topics/university-fees">student protests</a>, parliamentary party <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Pay-back-the-money-adjourns-Parliament-again-20150618">wrestling</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-on-a-cliff-edge-just-as-it-was-in-1985-53094">economic shocks</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-poor-face-rising-food-prices-as-drought-intensifies-52950">drought</a> and serious deficits in <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-zumas-actions-point-to-shambolic-management-of-south-africas-economy-52174">governance</a>. But no economic recovery plan appears to be in the pipeline. On top of this, the 9-point plan outlined in <a href="http://www.gov.za/president-jacob-zuma-state-nation-address-2015">last year’s speech</a> had no discernible impact on the economy.</p>
<p>The state power utility Eskom’s successful management of electricity supply is one of the few tales of success.</p>
<h2>Education</h2>
<p>A paradigm shift is needed to address the problems besetting education. There is a disconnect between the emerging new trends in the South African economy and an educational system based on the old economy. Mining and agriculture used to be the major employers. Today services, the financial sector, manufacturing and transport are bigger players.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, it is unlikely that Zuma will announce a package of structural changes even though education urgently needs a fundamental overhaul. </p>
<p>Tertiary education is over-centralised in universities. But they have insufficient capacity to provide the education and training needed to drive the economy. Diversification is imperative. The country needs additional technical and training colleges for teachers, nurses, agricultural students and artisans.</p>
<p>These should be complemented by advanced institutes for engineering, information communications and technology as well as tourism and hospitality. These institutions need to be established or reinstated where they have been closed down.</p>
<p>The private sector can also make a valuable contribution with its own specialised training. The sectors in which it could play a role include private health care, the automotive sector, aviation and the hotel sector. </p>
<p>Even with the same budget, tertiary education could become more cost-effective and produce more and better graduates with tailor-made skills. </p>
<p>The current Skills Training Education Authorities <a href="http://www.vocational.co.za/">(Setas)</a> system will have to be reconsidered. <a href="https://www.westerncape.gov.za/general-publication/fet-college-information">Further education and training</a> as well as technical, vocational and training colleges must be redesigned into specialised colleges with a much better professional reputation. </p>
<h2>Labour relations</h2>
<p>A third priority change should be in labour relations. Though exceptionally unpopular with the trade unions and the left in general, a fundamental reconsideration of the labour market is needed. </p>
<p>The dilemma is that while the economy continues to grow, albeit <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=735&id=1">very slowly</a>, it does not produce jobs in low-income categories. Strikes in the public and mining sectors and over-politicisation of trade unions have created a stalemate in employment.</p>
<p>South Africa’s stage of development requires maximum employment as an absolute priority. A trade-off between employment and advanced service conditions is also unavoidable.</p>
<h2>The presidential conundrum</h2>
<p>A number of factors will impede Zuma’s opportunity to have a <a href="http://www.calldon.co.za/lula-moment/">‘Lula moment’</a> - that is, to radically reduce inequality like former Brazilian president Inácio Lula da Silva did.</p>
<p>Zuma has the political persona of a survivor with strong political insticts. But he has had to make three major concessions in just two months. These were:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>agreeing to at least one of the demands of protesting students,</p></li>
<li><p>back-tracking on his appointment of a new <a href="https://theconversation.com/zumas-about-turn-shows-power-of-the-south-african-media-and-the-markets-52315">finance minister</a>,</p></li>
<li><p>and being forced to repay state funds spent on his private residence in <a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/pebble.asp?relid=21539">Nkandla</a>. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>There is a growing perception that his political capital in the ANC is <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2015/12/14/Study-Zuma-losing-popularity-among-South-Africans">diminishing</a>. His leadership authority is in decline: he presides over a party <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2014-05-11-the-partys-over-anc-sees-decline-in-support">losing support</a>. ANC membership has been in <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2015-10-09-zuma-blames-anc-kingmakers-for-membership-decline">decline </a> since 2012 and the party is paralysed by factionalism, particularly in provinces such as Kwa-Zulu Natal. The governing party’s relationship with its <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/kids/main.php?id=14">alliance partners</a> has reached a <a href="http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/financial/2016/01/14/cosatu-threatens-anc-on-elections">very low point</a>.</p>
<p>The forthcoming <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/2016-Municipal-Elections/Home/">municipal elections</a> will have a dampening effect on political decision-making. Any party prefers a relatively conservative and predictable strategy during election periods.</p>
<p>The need to keep the Congress of South African Trade Unions as an election partner will also put paid to the possibility of radical changes in the labour dispensation. The ANC is already embroiled in a bitter standoff with the union federation over <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2016/02/04/Cosatu-planning-big-strike-over-new-pension-laws">changes to pension laws</a>.</p>
<p>The final complicating factor is that international pressure has to be balanced against expectations of a domestic economic stimulus. Sentiments in the ANC are critical of international pressure and will insist on self-reliance. Zuma will therefore have to find a compromise between these.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dirk Kotze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is unlikely President Zuma will announce a structural changes in his State of the Nation Address. This, despite education being in dire need of fundamental restructuring and an economy in decline.Dirk Kotze, Professor in Political Science, University of South AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/544382016-02-10T15:20:26Z2016-02-10T15:20:26ZIf Zuma cast himself as a climate emergency president and statesman, this is what he would say<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110982/original/image-20160210-12170-1z0jt95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Environmental activists demand a fair climate change deal outside the United Nations Climate Change conference in South Africa recently. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Post the Cold War and in the age of high finance, the performance of narrow representative democratic politics has spawned three types of presidential politics</p>
<p>There are the populist presidents. These include Italy’s <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-11981754">Sylvio Berlusconi</a> the US’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/1600/presidents/georgewbush">George Bush</a> and South Africa’s <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/list_by.php?by=Jacob%20Zuma">Jacob Zuma</a>. Policy is made on the hoof, is erratic, and there is no moral and intellectual leadership except to allow markets to rule.</p>
<p>Then there is the technocratic ruler guided by the numbers, markets and keen to ensure policy-making is about certainty and the right signals. This is about being a manager of deep globalisation. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/1600/presidents/williamjclinton">Bill Clinton</a>, Germany’s <a href="http://www.biography.com/people/angela-merkel-9406424">Angela Merkel</a> and South Africa’s <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/thabo-mvuyelwa-mbeki">Thabo Mbeki</a> epitomised this.</p>
<p>Finally there is the statesman who is a visionary trying to ensure a home grown master narrative and a strategic class project. They carry a cross section of social forces and invent innovative engagements to shape a globalised political economy. Bolivia’s <a href="http://www.biography.com/people/evo-morales-37952">Evo Morales</a> and <a href="http://mandela.gov.za/biography/index.html">Nelson Mandela</a> stand out.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.sabc2.co.za/sabc/home/sabc2/news/details?id=6b28e6f0-b411-47e2-b252-a678843074c2&title=Preparations%20for%20SONA%202016%20underway">2016 State of the Nation Address</a> provides President Zuma with the opportunity to make a clean break with his populist leadership style and take the sort of actions that are likely to make him unpopular. But, that might be a very tall order for Zuma.</p>
<h2>What it will take for Zuma the statesman to emerge</h2>
<p>Zuma can be a statesman if he embraces and articulates the following three priorities.</p>
<p>Firstly he needs to call for a new mode of governance to tackle the ecological crises facing the world, South Africa and Africa. As the starkest expression of this crisis he actively champions climate emergency governance to ensure systemic adaptation and mitigation. </p>
<p>This means the drought narrative is shifted away from being a national disaster to being part of the “new normal” of climate shocks that requires a new paradigm of state practice, governance and citizenship. He stakes this out as a response to the crises of capitalist civilisation and the need for a just transition to sustain life. Central to this is reaffirming a non-racial approach to these challenges to unify South Africa.</p>
<p>Secondly he affirms a policy shift to climate emergency governance. This means moving policy in the direction of a new metric of sustaining life and a low carbon society. He actively calls for transitional policies that deepen mass initiative. These could include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>climate jobs,</p></li>
<li><p>a universal basic income grant set at a high level to enable choice,</p></li>
<li><p>integrated public transport,</p></li>
<li><p>food sovereignty pathways,</p></li>
<li><p>solidarity economies,</p></li>
<li><p>participatory budgeting at municipal level,</p></li>
<li><p>zero waste,</p></li>
<li><p>socially owned renewables,</p></li>
<li><p>the lifting on the ceiling of renewables in the national energy mix and calls for the establishment for a socially owned renewables parastatal,</p></li>
<li><p>rights of nature legislation,</p></li>
<li><p>scaling up cooperative banking in every locale,</p></li>
<li><p>a new sustainable water management framework,</p></li>
<li><p>a suite of new progressive carbon taxes and the retrofitting of households, government buildings and private corporations with locally manufactured renewable energy technology.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>At the same time, he announces an end to fracking and all nuclear deals and sets a deadline to stop producing coal. In addition, he calls on unions to work with government to ensure workers use the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/sites/default/files/legislations/national_climatechange_response_whitepaper.pdf">climate jobs policy</a> and <a href="http://www.basicincome.org/bien/pdf/2002Bhorat.pdf">universal basic income grant</a> to leave behind dirty industries.</p>
<p>He streamlines government by introducing a new democratic planning ministry to work with local governments. It absorbs trade and industry, minerals, energy, environment, water, public transport, local government, agriculture, local development, housing and the finance ministries. And he commits to dismantling provinces through a constitutional amendment to be replaced with three inter-provincial administrations.</p>
<p>He calls for a new policy on politicians’ salaries and perks so they are not so excessive. To professionalise the public sector, he calls on the <a href="http://www.psc.gov.za/">public services commission</a> to improve working conditions for health professionals, teachers, municipal workers and government administrators.</p>
<p>Finally, he announces a revamp of foreign policy which entails re-priorisiting Africa, instead of the <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/03/economist-explains-why-south-africa-brics">BRICS</a>. Africa has and will be hit hardest by climate warming. Yet it does not have the necessary finance, technology and institutional capacity to deal with this. Commitments made by Western countries to Africa at <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Cop 21</a> are dismal. Africa is meant to be a zone of climate chaos.</p>
<p>Zuma needs to challenge this by calling for the development of a just transition and climate emergency plan for Africa through the <a href="http://www.au.int/">African Union</a>. All foreign engagements would be realigned with this imperative.</p>
<h2>Why none of this will happen</h2>
<p>All of this will not happen because Jacob Zuma is not a statesmen. It also won’t happen because the <a href="http://www.cosatu.org.za/show.php?ID=2051">ANC-led alliance</a> is married to a fossil fuel and extractivist accumulation path and fixated on a growth-centred version of deep globalisation. This despite the fact that it has not worked and is the opposite of remaking society to fit into ecological constraints to survive. </p>
<p>Finally it will take more climate shocks to wake up the world’s ruling elites and citizenry to understand we have entered unchartered territory in human history.</p>
<p>We are now officially at a 1°C increase in planetary temperatures since the industrial revolution. And we are rapidly heading towards a 2°C increase this century. We need to think, act and govern differently if we are to survive and ensure future generations have hope.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54438/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vishwas Satgar has received funding from the National Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences. He also chairs the board of the Cooperative and Policy Alternative Centre. He supports #ZumaMustFall and #FeesMustFall.</span></em></p>The 2016 State of the Nation Address provides President Zuma with the ideal opportunity to be statesman-like. That would require bold action of his part, something that he is unlikely to do.Vishwas Satgar, Senior Lecturer, Department of International Relations, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.