tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/surveys-1078/articlesSurveys – The Conversation2024-03-04T17:30:56Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2248072024-03-04T17:30:56Z2024-03-04T17:30:56ZHoney bees are suprisingly abundant, research shows – but most are wild, not managed in hives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579554/original/file-20240304-28-3k1q2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3240%2C2158&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flying-honey-bee-collecting-pollen-tree-1949855746">Minko Peev/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There are roughly 100 million managed western honey bee (<em>Apis mellifera</em>) colonies in hives <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10609">worldwide</a>, with about half in Europe, Africa and western Asia, where the species is native, and the rest in the Americas, Oceania and eastern Asia, where it is introduced. </p>
<p>Collectively, these hives produce <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/755215/natural-honey-production-volume-worldwide/#:%7E:text=This%2520statistic%2520shows%2520the%2520production,million%2520metric%2520tons%2520in%25202022.">1.8 billion kg of honey each year</a>. More importantly, the honey bee does as much crop pollination as all other bees (around 20,000 species) <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8414">combined</a>.</p>
<p>Bee hives are familiar. But who has seen a wild-living colony? Honey bee swarms select large nest cavities, <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=tc6MDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP9&ots=jpkok1aRtd&sig=vSylo7cfoBVesz5Haf58ScDyE3s&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">usually in hollow trees</a> or buildings, but are often hard to spot. The average entrance height of 36 wild colonies we found surveying trees in southeast England was nearly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-023-00530-7">seven metres</a> above the ground.</p>
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<img alt="A tree cavity with bees inside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579553/original/file-20240304-51515-d7lp8y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579553/original/file-20240304-51515-d7lp8y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579553/original/file-20240304-51515-d7lp8y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579553/original/file-20240304-51515-d7lp8y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579553/original/file-20240304-51515-d7lp8y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579553/original/file-20240304-51515-d7lp8y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579553/original/file-20240304-51515-d7lp8y.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A wild honey bee colony in a Eucalyptus tree, Israel. The cavity may be as large as 80 litres.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Francis Ratnieks</span></span>
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<p>Based on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10609">a review</a> of surveys of wild colonies published in scientific journals, we found that wild honey bee colonies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10609">are surprisingly abundant</a>. We estimated that that there are between 200 and 300 million wild honey bee colonies worldwide – two to three times as many as managed hives.</p>
<p>Wild colony density is lowest in Europe, the only continent with more managed colonies than wild ones. Africa, meanwhile, has nearly seven times as many wild colonies as managed hives.</p>
<p>From time to time there is a news story about a person or organisation “helping the endangered honey bee” by placing hives on city roofs, for example. Our review provides further evidence that the honey bee is in fact exceedingly abundant. </p>
<p>Living on all continents except Antarctica are approximately 350 million honey bee colonies, the majority wild. This equates to one colony for every 23 people. At approximately 10,000 bees per colony, there are approximately 3.5 trillion individual honey bees on the planet – or 440 per person.</p>
<h2>How to find wild colonies</h2>
<p>Across the studies we analysed, researchers found wild honey bee colonies by searching for them, asking locals and <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691191409/following-the-wild-bees">bee-lining</a>, in which foraging worker bees are given syrup. The direction they fly off is noted and the syrup bait is moved in that direction over multiple visits until the colony is located. </p>
<p>In the Bwindi Impenetrable National Park in Uganda, researchers were aided by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7429.2006.00126.x">local honey hunters</a>, the Batwa pygmies. Unfortunately, such expert assistance is unavailable in England, where we are based. </p>
<p>The number of wild colonies can also be estimated indirectly from DNA samples of drone bees caught using a lure containing queen pheromone, as the drones reared in each colony are genetically distinguishable. </p>
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<p>Our study showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10609">a clear relationship</a> between the density of wild colonies and average annual temperature. The density of colonies increased up to 18°C, after which it levelled off and appeared to decline above 23°C. </p>
<p>Many colonies starve in winter, and longer winters increase the challenges to survival. Before spring flowers arrive, the bees in overwintering colonies (up to about 10,000 a colony) must live off stored honey alone.</p>
<p>We managed to gather information from wild colony surveys in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10609">41 locations</a> globally. More information would be valuable. One information gap is Asia, where we could find no surveys. </p>
<p>Some scientists suggest that wild western honey bee colonies cannot survive in eastern and southern Asia because they are more vulnerable to the pests and diseases that afflict the eastern honey bee (<em>A. cerana</em>), a species native to these areas and which is also managed in hives.</p>
<h2>Wild or domesticated?</h2>
<p>In French, the honey bee is called “<em>l’abeille domestique</em>”, the domestic bee. Given that wild honey bee colonies outnumber managed ones, and that mating and foraging are largely unmanaged, this name is misleading. The honey bee, even when managed in hives, is still very much a wild animal – unlike dogs or cattle whose movements, food supply and mating tend to be controlled by people. </p>
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<img alt="A beekeper in overalls inspecting a frame from a hive." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579550/original/file-20240304-22-tcy7jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579550/original/file-20240304-22-tcy7jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579550/original/file-20240304-22-tcy7jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579550/original/file-20240304-22-tcy7jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579550/original/file-20240304-22-tcy7jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579550/original/file-20240304-22-tcy7jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579550/original/file-20240304-22-tcy7jd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Not so domestic after all…</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beekeeper-working-collect-honey-beekeeping-concept-1054817495">Santypan/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Studies on wild honey bee colonies have revealed the varroa mites, a parasite of the eastern honey bee, have spread from Asia and now blight western honey bee colonies worldwide. Surveys carried out in the Arnot Forest in western New York State in the USA located wild colonies by bee-lining <a href="https://doi.org/10.1051/apido:2006055">before and after the arrival</a> of varroa parasites in about 1990, but fieldwork in 2002 and 2005 showed that the density of wild colonies in the forest hadn’t changed, despite all being infested with varroa. </p>
<p>Nesting sites in hollow trees would not be in short supply and so some other factor must be placing an upper limit on the number of colonies, probably the food supply (nectar and pollen).</p>
<p>Wild honey bee colonies do not benefit from the pest and disease control efforts of beekeepers – they are subject to the full force of nature’s challenges. As a result, their evolution will also be subject to stronger natural selection pressures for disease and parasite resistance <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=tc6MDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP9&ots=jpkok1aRtd&sig=vSylo7cfoBVesz5Haf58ScDyE3s&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">than managed colonies</a>. </p>
<p>Given that wild colonies outnumber managed ones, natural selection for improved disease resistance will be significant in most areas even if beekeepers use various techniques and chemicals to control pests and diseases in managed colonies.</p>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Wild honey bee colonies outnumber those managed in commercial hives.Francis Ratnieks, Professor of Apiculture, University of SussexOliver Visick, PhD Student in Ecology and Evolution, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2206322024-01-12T13:28:57Z2024-01-12T13:28:57ZGen Z and millennials have an unlikely love affair with their local libraries<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568487/original/file-20240109-27-hil6q2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Libraries can be an oasis from doomscrolling and information overload.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7f/NYC_Public_Library_Research_Room_Jan_2006-1-_3.jpg">Diliff/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568935/original/file-20240111-27-544ldb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568935/original/file-20240111-27-544ldb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568935/original/file-20240111-27-544ldb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568935/original/file-20240111-27-544ldb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568935/original/file-20240111-27-544ldb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568935/original/file-20240111-27-544ldb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568935/original/file-20240111-27-544ldb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>A phone fixation may seem at odds with an attraction to books. But the latter may offer a much-needed reprieve from the former.</p>
<p><a href="https://shorturl.at/FQS26">In our recent study of American Gen Z and millennials</a>, we discovered that 92% of them check social media daily; 25% of them check multiple times per hour.</p>
<p>Yet in that same nationally representative study, we also found that Gen Z and millennials are still visiting libraries at a healthy clip, with 54% of Gen Zers and millennials trekking to their local library in 2022. </p>
<p>Our findings reinforce 2017 data from the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/06/21/millennials-are-the-most-likely-generation-of-americans-to-use-public-libraries/">Pew Research Center</a>, which showed that 53% of millennials had gone to their local library over the previous 12 months. By comparison, that same study found that 45% of Gen Xers and 43% of baby boomers visited public libraries.</p>
<p>So why might Gen Z and millennials – sometimes characterized as <a href="https://www.insiderintelligence.com/content/gen-z-has-1-second-attention-span-work-marketers-advantage">attention-addled</a> <a href="https://qz.com/quartzy/1748191/how-millennials-became-a-generation-of-homebodies">homebodies</a> – still see value in trips to the public library?</p>
<h2>A preference for print</h2>
<p>We found that Gen Zers and millennials prefer books in print over e-books and audiobooks, even though their other favorite reading formats are decidedly digital, such as video game chats and <a href="https://medium.com/fiction-friends/whats-a-web-novel-and-why-should-you-be-excited-about-them-1181ae02be3b">web novels</a>. American Gen Zers and millennials read an average of two print books per month – nearly double the average for e-books or audiobooks, according to our data.</p>
<p>The preference for print also manifests itself in the types of books Gen Z and millennials are borrowing and buying: 59% said they prefer the same story in graphical or manga format than in text only. </p>
<p>And while some graphic novels, comics and manga can be read on a screen, print is where these intricately illustrated books truly shine. </p>
<h2>Beyond reading</h2>
<p>We were most surprised by our finding that 23% of Gen Zers and millennials who don’t identify as readers nonetheless visited a physical library in the past 12 months. </p>
<p>It’s a reminder that libraries <a href="https://ischool.syr.edu/12-things-you-can-get-at-libraries-other-than-books/">don’t just serve as a repository for books</a>. Patrons can record podcasts, make music, craft with friends or play video games. There are also quiet spaces with free Wi-Fi, perfect for students or people who work remotely. </p>
<p>Younger generations tend to be more <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/insights/topics/talent/recruiting-gen-z-and-millennials.html">values driven</a> than older ones, and libraries’ ethos of sharing seems to resonate with Gen Zers and millennials – as does a space that’s free from the insipid creep of commercialism. At the library, there are no ads and no fees – well, provided you return your books on time – and no cookies tracking and selling your behavior.</p>
<p>U.S. census data also shows that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-2020-census-data-shows-an-aging-america-and-wide-racial-gaps-between-generations">younger generations are more racially diverse</a> than older generations. </p>
<p>Our survey found that 64% of Black Gen Zers and millennials visited physical libraries in 2022, a rate that’s 10 percentage points higher than the general population. Meanwhile, Asian and Latino Gen Zers and millennials were more likely than the general population to say that browsing library shelves was a preferred way to discover new books.</p>
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<img alt="Two young Black women work from a desk at a library." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568490/original/file-20240109-27-ra0uc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568490/original/file-20240109-27-ra0uc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568490/original/file-20240109-27-ra0uc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568490/original/file-20240109-27-ra0uc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568490/original/file-20240109-27-ra0uc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568490/original/file-20240109-27-ra0uc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568490/original/file-20240109-27-ra0uc1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Libraries are chock-full of resources – including free Wi-Fi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/woman-wearing-turban-using-laptop-while-sitting-royalty-free-image/1439945442?phrase=young+people+at+library&searchscope=image%2Cfilm&adppopup=true">Maskot/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A crucial moment for libraries</h2>
<p>Though libraries have been forced to <a href="https://www.ala.org/news/press-releases/2023/09/american-library-association-releases-preliminary-data-2023-book-challenges">reckon with book bans</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/tennessees-drag-ban-rehashes-old-culture-war-narratives-201623">politicization of public spaces</a>, Gen Zers and millennials still see libraries as a kind of oasis – a place where doomscrolling and information overload can be quieted, if temporarily. </p>
<p>Perhaps Gen Zers’ and millennials’ library visits, like their <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/29/dumb-phones-are-on-the-rise-in-the-us-as-gen-z-limits-screen-time.html">embrace of flip phones</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-so-many-gen-z-ers-drawn-to-old-digital-cameras-198854">board games</a>, are another life hack for slowing down.</p>
<p>Printed books won’t ping you or ghost you. And when young people eventually log back on to their devices, books <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/BookTok">make excellent props for #BookTok</a>, the community on TikTok where readers review their favorite books.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220632/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathi Inman Berens receives funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities, the Delmas Foundation, the Panorama Project and the American Library Association. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Noorda receives funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities, the Delmas Foundation, the Panorama Project and the American Library Association.</span></em></p>Though they’re sometimes characterized as attention-addled homebodies, younger people see a real value in libraries − one that goes beyond books.Kathi Inman Berens, Associate Professor of Book Publishing and Digital Humanities, Portland State UniversityRachel Noorda, Associate Professor of Publishing, Portland State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168722023-11-29T13:39:23Z2023-11-29T13:39:23ZUS food insecurity surveys aren’t getting accurate data regarding Latino families<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560038/original/file-20231116-28-l00ddr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C38%2C5052%2C2997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's hard to divulge an inability to put food on the table.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/hispanic-woman-cooking-for-granddaughter-in-kitchen-royalty-free-image/579979911?adppopup=true">Shestock/Tetra images via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government has conducted the <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/food-security-in-the-u-s/history-background/">U.S. Household Food Security Survey Module</a> for more than 25 years. <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/food-security-in-the-u-s/measurement/">The data collected annually</a> from <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-security-in-the-united-states/documentation/">about 50,000 U.S. households</a> helps form estimates of the scale of food insecurity – not having <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/food-security-in-the-u-s/definitions-of-food-security/">access to enough food</a> for a healthy life – at the national and state levels. </p>
<p>But the way Latino parents respond to some of the questions in the annual <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/food-security-in-the-u-s/survey-tools/">U.S. Department of Agriculture survey used to measure food insecurity</a> doesn’t always reflect their true experiences. We published this finding in a special October 2023 issue of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jand.2023.07.007">Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics</a>.</p>
<p>Our team, which included development sociologist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=PXjyYOAAAAAJ">Christian DiRado-Owens</a>, conducted a study in California, New York and Texas, using surveys and interviews to <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/food-assistance-data-collaborative-research-programs/twenty-five-years-of-food-security-measurement-extramural-research-grants/">help the USDA assess the accuracy and acceptability</a> of these questions among Latino families.</p>
<p>Many of the responses to the survey questions didn’t align with more detailed descriptions of the personal situations of the people we interviewed. When asked to explain their answers, many of them found it easier to talk about how they managed or coped with food insecurity than to respond to questions about how often they worried about or were not able to feed their families as they wished. </p>
<h2>Room for improvement</h2>
<p>Student researchers asked 62 Latino parents and caregivers the questions from the <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/food-security-in-the-u-s/survey-tools/">U.S. Household Food Security Survey Module</a>, letting them select either the English or Spanish version. For half of the 18 questions, people need to answer “often,” “sometimes” or “never.”</p>
<p>For example, the first statement is:</p>
<p><em>(I/We) worried whether (my/our) food would run out before (I/we) got money to buy more. Was that often true, sometimes true, or never true for (you/your household) in the last 12 months?</em></p>
<p>The rest are “yes” or “no” questions, such as:</p>
<p><em>In the last 12 months, since last (name of current month), did (you/you or other adults in your household) ever cut the size of your meals or skip meals because there wasn’t enough money for food?</em></p>
<p>After people completed the survey, interviewers prompted them with open-ended questions to elaborate further. This approach allowed participants to give feedback about the survey and share their thought processes about their responses. </p>
<p>We found that comprehension of the English words or the Spanish translation of these questions wasn’t the main issue. Rather, the way the questions were written could be improved.</p>
<p>For instance, when asked how often they skipped meals or reduced the size of meals, some of the people we interviewed answered “never.” But they went on to describe how they often prepared significantly smaller meals. In some cases, they recounted having eaten a small snack instead of a meal.</p>
<p>In addition, some of the people who responded that they could always afford enough food for their families later shared how they regularly relied on food pantries and similar programs designed for intermittent or emergency use. While their answers showed a commitment to feeding their families, they did not align with the intention of the questions – indicating that the survey may be underestimating true levels of food insecurity.</p>
<p>Overall, the sensitive nature of the questions and the limited number of possible response options made it hard for some people to answer them accurately – especially on the subject of their children not having enough food. Many people also said they felt that the phrasing of the questions about being able to afford food didn’t reflect their personal situations or experiences. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559453/original/file-20231114-21-5davd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People bundled up for cold weather receive donated food." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559453/original/file-20231114-21-5davd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/559453/original/file-20231114-21-5davd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559453/original/file-20231114-21-5davd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559453/original/file-20231114-21-5davd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559453/original/file-20231114-21-5davd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559453/original/file-20231114-21-5davd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/559453/original/file-20231114-21-5davd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Food is distributed at a food and toy holiday pantry run by La Colaborativa and the Salvation Army in Chelsea, Mass.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/food-is-given-to-those-in-line-at-a-food-and-toy-holiday-news-photo/1245786431?adppopup=true">Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Higher levels of food insecurity</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=107702">U.S. food insecurity</a> increased from 10.2% in 2021 to 12.8% in 2022, according to official estimates.</p>
<p>Government agencies, nonprofits and researchers like us <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jand.2023.01.007">use the survey’s findings</a> to address food insecurity and make decisions about food assistance and nutrition policies and programs, including the <a href="https://theconversation.com/extra-snap-benefits-are-ending-as-us-lawmakers-resume-battle-over-program-that-helps-low-income-americans-buy-food-199929">Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program</a>.</p>
<p>The Latino population is <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2022/06/14/a-brief-statistical-portrait-of-u-s-hispanics/">growing quickly</a> and has become the nation’s largest racial or ethnic group. About <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/RHI725222">19% of the U.S. population, as of 2022</a>, identified as Hispanic or Latino. Without accurate data regarding this large community, the picture of food insecurity is incomplete. And until now, there has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jand.2023.01.007">too little research done to assess</a> whether the survey questions are eliciting valid data for Latinos.</p>
<p>Food insecurity among Latino families with children is already high, according to the most recent official data, which was collected in 2022: <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/107703/err-325.pdf?v=4909">13.2% compared with 5.5% for white households</a> with children. But based on our findings, it’s likely that the real picture is even worse.</p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>Our team is now analyzing data from the interviews we conducted to take a closer look at the strategies these Latino families used to cope with food insecurity at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>We’re also seeing whether Latino parents and caregivers living in very large urban communities answered questions differently compared with those residing in smaller cities and towns.</p>
<p>In addition, we want to assess any differences among Latinos of different heritages – such as Mexican Americans and Puerto Ricans – to find ways to get more accurate data regarding food security for Latino families with children.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cassandra M. Johnson received funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for the research in this article. In addition, she receives external funding through research grants from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and a contract with the Sustainable Food Center. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda C. McClain received funding for this, and other community-based, research from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. She also receives research support from the National Institutes of Health. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katherine Dickin received funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the research in this article. She has also received previous funding from the USDA, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and UK-AID.</span></em></p>Questions about food insecurity can be less straightforward than they appear.Cassandra M. Johnson, Assistant Professor of Nutrition, Texas State UniversityAmanda C. McClain, Assistant Professor of Nutrition, San Diego State UniversityKatherine Dickin, Associate Professor of Public & Ecosystem Health, Cornell UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184262023-11-29T00:03:08Z2023-11-29T00:03:08ZWhat are young Australians most worried about? Finding affordable housing, they told us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561724/original/file-20231127-29-kf67ur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5619%2C3743&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-man-looking-sunrise-321921797">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many of us were anxious and fearful during the COVID pandemic, but we’ve probably started to feel a lot better since lockdowns have stopped and life looks more like it did previously.</p>
<p>But new data shows that hasn’t been the case for Australia’s young people.</p>
<p>Our wide-ranging survey of youth across the country reveals many young people fear they’ll never be able to own a home and will end up worse-off than their parents.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/listening-to-youth-voices-was-missing-in-the-covid-19-pandemic-response-214106">Listening to youth voices was missing in the COVID-19 pandemic response</a>
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<h2>Affordable housing is their top concern</h2>
<p>Data from the 2023 <a href="https://doi.org/10.26180/24087186.v2">Australian Youth Barometer</a>, which surveyed 571 young Australians aged 18-24 and interviewed 30 more, highlight young people’s interconnected and confronting attitudes about their futures.</p>
<p>In this third iteration of the annual survey, we expected improvements in young people’s attitudes following the worst of the pandemic.</p>
<p>But the pressures have intensified following increases to costs of living and multiple disruptions to young lives, leading to anxieties about their future.</p>
<p>The clear majority of young people (70%) said affordable housing was their top concern (15% increase since last year), while 51% nominated employment opportunities (up 9%) as the second. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1724947893780406553"}"></div></p>
<p>Concern about affordable housing is unsurprising. The fear is real. </p>
<p>Aside from skyrocketing rents and house prices, many young people face the prospect of having nowhere to live. According to 2021 Census data, almost <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/analysis/brief/what-are-real-costs-housing-crisis-australias-young-people">one in four</a> of all people experiencing homelessness (23%) are 12 to 24 years of age. </p>
<p>A 23-year-old woman from the ACT, who’s living in a caravan she doesn’t own, told us housing was her biggest concern:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m very lucky to have it [the caravan]. And if it gets taken away from me, I’m back out on the streets again […] I need to be able to shower, have a place to get ready, eat, all that. That’s really the only concern in life. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Seeing a pathway to affordable accommodation is all the more challenging given young people’s current circumstances. </p>
<p>Some 90% of those surveyed experienced financial difficulties in the past year, a continuation of last year’s trend. Around one in five (21%) experienced food insecurity.</p>
<p>Surviving <em>now</em> is a concern, let alone affording a roof tomorrow. Just 35% of young people feel confident that they’ll be able to afford a place to live in the next year.</p>
<h2>Feeling unprepared for the future</h2>
<p>Only 52% of young people we surveyed feel their education has prepared them for the future</p>
<p>Three issues arise here. First, some young people are critical of education in their schools and post school institutions. </p>
<p>One 23-year-old woman from South Australia said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The learning system in Australia is absolutely appalling is what I have to say about it. It is so behind, it is so backdated, it has not kept up with the times, their learning ways are just inaccurate, and a waste of everyone’s time […] It wasn’t catered to what would be best for learning in the classroom, it was just, ‘This is what the system is, that’s what we’re doing’.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Second, there is a growing awareness that in a competitive labour market, greater qualifications might not lead to desirable, secure jobs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A teenage girl studies in class" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561741/original/file-20231127-28-hfexsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Only around half of the young people surveyed believed education had prepared them for the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/high-school-student-taking-notes-book-1958383675">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The third is understanding what is required to get that desirable work. Upheavals to the workforce, including technological developments such as automation, have led to questioning what skills, knowledge and experience are required for job futures that are decreasingly knowable. </p>
<p>Other factors such as climate change (the third top issue requiring immediate action) and geopolitical insecurity amplify uncertainty about the future. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-young-people-are-concerned-about-climate-change-but-it-can-drive-them-to-take-action-171300">Yes, young people are concerned about climate change. But it can drive them to take action</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Challenges to youth mental health</h2>
<p>The challenges outlined above intersect. One 20-year-old woman from Queensland told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’m just worried that it’ll be harder for me to get a job from my course or whatever, or that if stuff like cost of living and everything keeps going up, no matter if I get a job, I wouldn’t be able to, like, stay on top of that, as well. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Only 52% of young Australians think that it is likely or extremely likely that they will achieve financial security in the future.</p>
<p>More young Australians think they will be financially worse off than their parents (from 53% in 2022 to 61% in 2023). Most (97%) felt worried, anxious or pessimistic in the past year (an increase of 14% on last year’s data). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-teach-children-about-climate-change-inspire-hope-and-take-action-to-change-the-future-174036">How to teach children about climate change, inspire hope and take action to change the future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Just over a quarter (26%) characterised their mental health as poor or very poor (up 8% on last year). Nearly one in four (24%) received mental health care in the past year.</p>
<p>Young people see their health and wellbeing as interconnected to other factors, such as affordable accommodation, jobs and food security. A 24-year-old man from New South Wales said that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Financial independence is kind of a healthy thing. I think that knowing that you could afford your rent, knowing that you can afford food […] knowing that you have a roof over your head is something that I measure for healthiness.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Attitudes that are here to stay?</h2>
<p>Conditions for young people typically deteriorate during economic downturns. The question is whether the trends above reflect a tremor or a quake. </p>
<p>We saw during previous recessions how young people were disproportionately and negatively affected compared to older age groups. That tremor is already visible, despite relatively <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release">good</a> employment figures in recent years (which insufficiently capture the quality, security and desirability of current employment). Even so, youth unemployment rate has increased to 8.7%.</p>
<p>So are these attitudes likely to remain? </p>
<p>A youthquake is typically defined as a marked <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/youthquake">shift</a> in cultural norms brought about by changing values, tastes and attitudes of young people. Such shifts are associated with wider social, economic and political seismic upheavals. </p>
<p>Our findings suggest that conditions for the next youthquake might have begun.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218426/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We thought after the worst of a global pandemic, young people’s outlook for the future might have improved. Our survey shows they’ve actually gotten worse.Lucas Walsh, Professor and Director of the Centre for Youth Policy and Education Practice, Monash UniversityBlake Cutler, Researcher and PhD Candidate in Education, Monash UniversityThuc Bao Huynh, Research Assistant, Monash UniversityZihong Deng, Research Fellow, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2097712023-08-17T12:35:12Z2023-08-17T12:35:12ZPotentially faulty data spotted in surveys of drug use and other behaviors among LGBQ youth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541296/original/file-20230804-26-63jilc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=202%2C166%2C7737%2C5130&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A new study found that youth were providing extreme or untruthful responses to CDC surveys on LGBQ student health. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/female-hands-of-a-student-taking-a-test-royalty-free-image/1305362771?phrase=students+taking+a+survey&adppopup=true">FG Trade/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal data on LGBQ student health <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.13957">contain a significant amount of potentially exaggerated or untruthful responses</a>, raising questions about how they might skew people’s understanding of risky behavior among teens. These inaccuracies affect some responses more than others. That’s according to an analysis my colleagues and I did of high school surveys administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, better known as the CDC.</p>
<p>Without accounting for this invalid data, the CDC results suggest that for every heterosexual boy who uses steroids, three LGBQ boys use steroids. After accounting for the invalid data, neither group is shown to use steroids more. In contrast, disparities for being bullied or considering suicide were not affected by potentially invalid data.</p>
<p>Over 12,800 high school students during the 2018-2019 school year reported whether they identified as LGBQ – that is, lesbian, gay, bisexual or questioning – or heterosexual on the national <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthyyouth/data/yrbs/data.htm">Youth Risk Behavior Survey</a>. They also responded to items related to their health and well-being. </p>
<p>We first estimated what the risk disparities between LGBQ and heterosexual youth were before accounting for potentially invalid data. We then used a machine-learning algorithm to detect response patterns that suggested when youth were providing extreme or untruthful responses.</p>
<p>For example, we treated their responses with suspicion if they reported eating carrots four or more times every day and said they were impossibly tall. That means we gave less weight to their responses when we re-estimated all of the disparities. We then saw how the disparities changed after the potentially invalid responses were taken into account.</p>
<p>After accounting for invalid data, disparities in drug use – including steroids – injected drugs, cocaine, ecstasy and pain medication without a prescription were not as pronounced. LGBQ boys appeared to use injected drugs four times as often as heterosexual boys. But after accounting for the likely invalid data, neither group was more likely to use injected drugs. </p>
<p>Yet, while some outcomes were susceptible to invalid data, others were not. For example, LGBQ boys and girls were about twice as likely to be bullied at school and two to three times as likely to consider suicide. This shows that not all outcomes are equally affected by invalid data. </p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>The Youth Risk Behavior Survey provides vital information on the health and behaviors of high school students. It informs research regarding <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthyyouth/data/yrbs/yrbs_data_summary_and_trends.htm">teen sexual behaviors, drug use and suicide risk</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.13957">Our study</a> and others using different methods to account for invalid data <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X11422112">consistently</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304407">find</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2332858419888892">that</a> LGBQ students are at a much higher risk for being bullied and for suicide, consistent with <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthyyouth/data/yrbs/yrbs_data_summary_and_trends.htm">CDC reports</a> on these outcomes. </p>
<p>It is critical to address the <a href="https://www.aclu.org/legislative-attacks-on-lgbtq-rights">ongoing stigmatization that LGBTQ+ people face</a> to reduce these mental health disparities. Yet, when researchers don’t check for invalid data, they might conclude that other differences are larger and more deserving of attention and resources than they are.</p>
<p>Policymakers and researchers must ensure that large-scale data collection efforts have safeguards for data quality.</p>
<p>We asked the CDC for a comment on our study’s findings. In response, they directed our attention to an <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthyyouth/data/yrbs/faq.htm">FAQ page</a> that discussed validity and reliability in a general sense. The CDC’s response did not specifically address the issue of how invalid data can have a disproportionate effect on minorities, which is a significant concern raised by our research.</p>
<h2>What other research is being done</h2>
<p>Other studies have found that invalid data can disproportionately influence <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.13957">low-incidence outcomes like heroin use</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/abn0000479">minority populations</a>, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1300/J145v06n02_02">adoptees</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/152822X06289161">disabled</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X14534297">individuals</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024824">racial or ethnic minorities</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/152822X06289161">immigrants</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X14534297">transgender individuals</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, the issue of invalid data is not confined to youth surveys. Studies examining <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287837">public health behaviors</a> during the COVID-19 pandemic and surveys on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550617698203">sexual orientation among adults</a> have also encountered invalid responses, raising further questions about their accuracy.</p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209771/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Cimpian receives funding from the U.S. Department of Education Institute of Education Sciences and the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Potential inaccuracies in CDC high school surveys may have created an exaggerated perception that LGBQ youth engage in risky behaviors, new research shows.Joseph Cimpian, Professor of Economics and Education Policy, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102182023-08-03T12:24:52Z2023-08-03T12:24:52ZMost Americans support NASA – but don’t think it should prioritize sending people to space<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539322/original/file-20230725-21-7pchup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=58%2C0%2C7802%2C3971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Artemis I Launch in November 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasahqphoto/52503151166/">NASA/Bill Ingalls</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most Americans (69%) believe it is essential that the United States continue to be a world leader in space. But only a subsection of that group believes NASA should prioritize sending people to the Moon, according to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/07/20/americans-views-of-space-u-s-role-nasa-priorities-and-impact-of-private-companies/">a new report</a> released by the Pew Research Center. The study surveyed over 10,000 U.S. adults on their attitudes toward NASA and their expectations for the space industry over the next few decades.</p>
<p>As scholars who study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aESo-coAAAAJ&hl=en">international relations in space</a> and the <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/people/staff/teasel-muir-harmony">history of the space program</a>, we are interested in understanding how Americans view space activities, and how their perspectives might affect the future of both U.S. and global space developments.</p>
<h2>US dominance in space</h2>
<p>The United States’ most visible effort to maintain world leadership in space is arguably its <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/">Artemis Program</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/returning-to-the-moon-can-benefit-commercial-military-and-political-sectors-a-space-policy-expert-explains-209300">land humans on the Moon</a> by late 2024. The U.S. has emphasized international cooperation, bringing in Europe, Japan and Canada as partners in the program.</p>
<p>With China and Russia <a href="https://www.space.com/china-russia-moon-base-ilrs">undertaking a parallel effort</a> to land people on the Moon, many see a competitive element to these plans as well.</p>
<p>One of the most striking features of the recent poll is how similar it looks to earlier public opinion polling, especially <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2018/06/06/majority-of-americans-believe-it-is-essential-that-the-u-s-remain-a-global-leader-in-space">one conducted in 2018</a>. The popularity of NASA has remained consistently high for decades, frequently with a favorability rating between 60% and 70%, far higher than many other federal agencies. But the specific priorities of the U.S. space program have often been at odds with public opinion. </p>
<p>While 65% of Americans said <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/07/20/americans-views-of-space-u-s-role-nasa-priorities-and-impact-of-private-companies/">in the new Pew survey</a> it was essential that NASA continue to be involved in space exploration, only 12% said that sending human astronauts to the Moon should be NASA’s top priority. Although somewhat at odds with the national space agenda, this valuation is not new. Even during the 1960s, when NASA undertook Project Apollo, Americans ranked solving problems on Earth – such as pollution, poverty and national beautification – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12473">above landing humans on the Moon</a>.</p>
<p>Most Americans for the majority of the 1960s responded in public opinion polls that the Apollo program <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0265-9646(03)00039-0">was not worth its high budget</a>. Over time, however, the <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/18801/chapter/3#29">Apollo program has grown in popularity</a>. </p>
<p>Between 1989 and 1995, polling revealed that the public thought the U.S. space program should <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0265-9646(03)00039-0">focus on robotic spacecraft</a> as opposed to crewed missions. This position began to change in the mid-1990s with docking of the space shuttle with the Russian space station and several blockbuster space-themed films. </p>
<p>Despite <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12473">moderate public support</a>, human spaceflight consistently receives the majority share of <a href="https://www.planetary.org/space-policy/nasa-budget">U.S. civilian space funding</a>, suggesting that public opinion and the national space agenda stand apart. The most recent poll results underscore how <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/18801/chapter/2#2">a combination of rationales</a> – including advancing science, national stature, geopolitics, economic interests and national security – rather than public opinion alone have shaped national space priorities throughout time.</p>
<h2>Planetary defense</h2>
<p>Additionally, the recent poll explored people’s expectations for the space industry. It found 60% of people believed NASA’s top priority should be monitoring asteroids that could hit the Earth. NASA does have national responsibility for this job – referred to as planetary defense – but the office receives <a href="https://ww2.aip.org/fyi/2023/fy23-budget-outcomes-nasa">less than 1% of NASA’s budget</a>, or US$138 million out of $25.4 billion in 2023.</p>
<p>Even with its relatively modest budget, the office has made significant progress. This included the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/dart/dart-news">Double Asteroid Redirect Test</a> – the world’s <a href="https://dart.jhuapl.edu/Mission/index.php">first planetary defense experiment</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/nasa-successfully-shifted-an-asteroids-orbit-dart-spacecraft-crashed-into-and-moved-dimorphos-192317">DART intentionally</a> <a href="https://apnews.com/article/nasa-dart-asteroid-updates-b6cfccd90a0450c3cce6048af61a1c01">crashed into an asteroid</a> in September 2022 to understand how the impact would change the asteroid’s orbit. The results of the test could help scientists understand how to deflect asteroids that threaten the Earth.</p>
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<h2>Private enterprise in space</h2>
<p>Private activity in space goes back to the 1960s, with the creation of commercial <a href="https://history.nasa.gov/satcomhistory.html">communication satellite companies</a> and growth of large <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/11/20981714/spacex-commercial-spaceflight-space-industry-decade-nasa-business">defense contractors</a>. However, many experts view the wave of companies that started in the 2000s as marking an important change.</p>
<p>While earlier companies often relied heavily on the government to set requirements and fund projects, these “<a href="https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2022/03/new-space-ecosystem-should-be-leveraged-to-provide-transformative-science-advancements-says-new-report">new space</a>” companies set their own priorities and often see the government as only one of many customers.</p>
<p>These companies are bringing new capabilities to the market. For example, <a href="https://www.planet.com/">Planet</a> collects daily images of the Earth, <a href="https://www.umbra.com/">Umbra</a> uses radar to take pictures at night and through clouds, <a href="https://astroscale.com/">Astroscale</a> is demonstrating the ability to remove debris from space, and <a href="https://www.astrobotic.com/">Astrobotic</a> is developing a commercial Moon lander.</p>
<p>Many Americans view private activity in space positively, but a large portion have not yet formed an opinion. While 48% of Americans surveyed said private companies are doing a good job building rockets and spacecraft that are safe and reliable, another 39% were unsure. Similarly, 47% of Americans said private companies are making important contributions to space exploration, but another 40% were unsure. </p>
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<p>Companies like <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-commercial-flight-space-station-launch-private-citizens-saudis-axiom/">SpaceX</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/blue-origin-ns-21-space-tourist-mission">Blue Origin</a> and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/virgin-galactic-rocketplane-first-commercial-sub-orbital-flight-to-space/">Virgin Galactic</a> are <a href="https://theconversation.com/spacex-inspiration4-mission-sent-4-people-with-minimal-training-into-orbit-and-brought-space-tourism-closer-to-reality-167611">beginning to take tourists into space</a>. Doing so in a safe and sustainable way will be essential to the future perception of this industry. Priorities include carefully designing safety systems and procedures and carrying out careful analysis of any <a href="https://spacenews.com/blue-origin-continues-investigation-into-new-shepard-anomaly/">anomolies</a> that occur during flight.</p>
<p>Overall, Americans are optimistic about the future of space activity. The poll found 55% of Americans expect people will routinely travel to space as tourists within the next 50 years.</p>
<h2>Militarization of space</h2>
<p>A significant portion of Americans (44%) see a more militaristic future for space. They believe the U.S. will definitely or probably fight against other nations in space sometime in the next 50 years. Warfare could include the destruction or disabling of U.S. or other nations’ strategic satellites. </p>
<p>By some definitions, conflict in space has <a href="https://theconversation.com/war-in-ukraine-highlights-the-growing-strategic-importance-of-private-satellite-companies-especially-in-times-of-conflict-188425">already occurred</a>. At the outset of the Ukraine War, Russia carried out a <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/05/10/1051973/russia-hack-viasat-satellite-ukraine-invasion/">cyberattack against the ViaSat satellite network</a> used by the Ukrainian military. Russia also regularly <a href="https://www.space.com/russia-jamming-gps-signals-ukraine">jams GPS signals</a> in Ukraine. However, no nation has ever physically attacked another nation’s satellite in space.</p>
<p>There is <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-12/focus/small-step-toward-asat-ban">no ban on anti-satellite weapons</a>, but in December 2022, 155 nations <a href="https://spacenews.com/united-nations-general-assembly-approves-asat-test-ban-resolution/">passed a United Nations General Assembly resolution</a> calling for a halt to one type of anti-satellite testing. In addition, the United Nations’ <a href="https://meetings.unoda.org/open-ended-working-group-on-reducing-space-threats-2022">open-ended working group on reducing space threats</a> has been meeting since 2022 to help avoid conflict in space.</p>
<h2>Space debris</h2>
<p>Americans are also concerned about space debris – 69% think there will definitely or probably be a major problem with debris in space by 2073. Space debris can include defunct satellites, discarded rocket bodies, or pieces of satellites resulting from accidental collisions or anti-satellite tests.</p>
<p>There is reason for concern. The number of objects in space has grown rapidly, from just over 1,000 in 2013 to <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database">6,718 satellites today</a>. Many countries have <a href="https://spacenews.com/satellite-operators-criticize-extreme-megaconstellation-filings/">announced plans for new large constellations</a> of satellites, with some experts predicting there could be <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-105166">60,000 satellites in orbit by 2030</a>.</p>
<p>Right now the United States maintains the most advanced <a href="https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/intelligence/2023-03-13/whats-there-where-it-and-whats-it-doing-us-space-surveillance">system for monitoring space objects</a>. It shares <a href="https://www.space-track.org/">information and collision warnings</a> with satellite operators all over the world, but there are no rules that require those operators to take action. As space traffic increases, this ad hoc system will need to change.</p>
<p>The United States is developing a new <a href="https://spacenews.com/commerce-department-outlines-plans-for-basic-space-traffic-management-service/">Traffic Coordination System for Space</a> that will improve data sharing and coordination with commercial and international partners. Countries have been working within the United Nations to develop and implement guidelines for the <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/topics/long-term-sustainability-of-outer-space-activities.html">long-term sustainability</a> of outer space activities. </p>
<p>Still, the U.S. will need to coordinate with countries around the world to ensure satellite technology doesn’t outpace safety and give organizations like NASA the ability to continue leading activities in space.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210218/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mariel Borowitz receives funding from the National Air and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of Defense (DoD), and the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Teasel Muir-Harmony does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new survey catalogs Americans’ expectations about the future of space, from NASA to SpaceX. Two space policy experts describe how these results stack up against the current state of space affairs.Mariel Borowitz, Associate Professor of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of TechnologyTeasel Muir-Harmony, Curator of the Apollo Collection, Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum and Affiliate Adjunct, Georgetown UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1995812023-03-06T13:35:55Z2023-03-06T13:35:55ZAmericans remain hopeful about democracy despite fears of its demise – and are acting on that hope<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513208/original/file-20230302-83-yerkvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C109%2C4311%2C2760&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Black voters are punishing anti-democratic candidates at the ballot box.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BlackVotersWisconsin/650e7d8af49a4535b74a3851d47c8f99/photo?Query=black%20voters%20&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=797&currentItemNo=11">AP Photo/Morry Gash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden will <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/29/joint-statement-between-costa-rica-the-netherlands-the-republic-of-korea-the-republic-of-zambia-and-the-united-states-on-the-announcement-of-the-second-summit-for-democracy/">convene world leaders beginning on March 29, 2023</a>, to discuss the state of democracies around the world.</p>
<p>The Summit for Democracy, a virtual event being co-hosted by the White House, is being <a href="https://www.state.gov/summit-for-democracy/">touted as an opportunity</a> to “reflect, listen and learn” with the aim of encouraging “democratic renewal.”</p>
<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8LCrZXcAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientists</a>, <a href="https://andrenewright.com/">we have been</a> <a href="https://polisci.la.psu.edu/people/map6814/">doing something</a> very similar. In the fall of 2022 we listened to thousands of U.S. residents about their views on the state of American democracy. What we found was that, despite widespread fears over the future of democracy, many people are also hopeful, and that hope translated into “voting for democracy” by <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2022-12-30/how-democracy-fought-back-in-2022">shunning election result deniers at the polls</a>.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://2022electionpoll.us/">study</a> – and indeed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/06/us/politics/biden-democracy-threat.html">Biden’s stated push for democracy</a> – comes at a unique point in American political history.</p>
<p>As a group, we have decades of experience studying politics and believe that not since the American Civil War has there been so much concern that American democracy, while always a <a href="https://www.loc.gov/loc/lcib/0704/franklin.html">work in progress</a>, is under threat. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/06/06/public-trust-in-government-1958-2022/">Survey trends</a> point to eroding trust in democratic institutions. And in addition to serving as a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/03/1069764164/american-democracy-poll-jan-6">direct reminder</a> of our political system’s fragility, the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol provoked concern of the potential of <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/11/where-are-we-going-america/">democratic backsliding</a> in the U.S.</p>
<h2>Fears of a failing democracy</h2>
<p>The 2022 midterms were the first nationwide ballot to take place after the Jan. 6 attack. The vote provided a good opportunity to check in with potential U.S. voters over how they viewed the risks to democracy.</p>
<p>As such, in the fall of 2022, the <a href="https://africanamericanresearch.us/">African American Research Collaborative</a> – of which one of us is a member – worked with a team of <a href="https://2022electionpoll.us/partners/">partners</a> to create the <a href="https://2022electionpoll.us/">Midterm Election Voter Poll</a>. In an online and phone survey, we asked more than 12,000 U.S. voters from a variety of backgrounds a series of questions about voting intention and trust in national politics. Respondents were also quizzed over their concern about the state of American democracy.</p>
<p>On a five-point scale ranging from “very” to “not at all,” the survey asked how worried respondents were that: “The political system in the United States is failing and there is a decent chance that we will no longer have a functioning democracy within the next 10 years.”</p>
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<p>Roughly 6 in 10 Americans expressed fear that democracy is in peril, with 35% saying they were “very worried.”</p>
<p>Broken down by race and ethnicity, white Americans were the most concerned, with 64% expressing some worry that democracy is in peril. Black and Latino Americans were slightly less concerned. Asian Americans appeared the least worried, with 55% expressing concern. </p>
<p>Of the 63% of respondents who registered concern, more than half said they were “very worried” that democracy is in trouble and that it may soon come to an end.</p>
<p>Such fragility-of-democracy concerns can have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/my987">self-perpetuating effect</a>; voters’ increasing lack of faith in their system can hasten the collapse in government they fear. </p>
<p>For example, negative attitudes about democracy can also destabilize voting habits – prompting some to skip elections altogether while motivating others to swing back and forth between candidates and political parties from one election to another. This pattern of voting can, in turn, lead to gridlock in government or worse: the election of cynical politicians who are less able – or even willing – to govern. It is a process that former Democratic Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts described in 2015 as the “self-fulfilling prophesy of ‘<a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/the-self-fulfilling-prophecy-of-government-doesnt-work-213375/">government doesn’t work</a>.’” </p>
<h2>Turning hope into action</h2>
<p>But the story that emerged from our survey isn’t all doom and gloom. </p>
<p>In addition to confirming how endangered Americans believe their democracy is, citizens appear hopeful that their political system can recover. When given the prompt: “Overall, as you vote in November 2022, are you mostly feeling …,” more than 40% of the respondents – regardless of race or ethnicity – said they felt “hopeful.” </p>
<p>Indeed, “hope” was by far the most common feeling out of the four emotions that respondents were able to choose from. “Worry” was the second most typical emotion, with 31% of the total sample selecting it, followed by “pride” and “anger.”</p>
<p>Rather than resigning themselves to a lost democracy, the results indicate that voters from a broad array of demographic and political backgrounds feel hopeful that American democracy can overcome the challenges facing the nation.</p>
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<p>Black Americans were among the most hopeful (49%), second only to Asian Americans (55%), while white Americans were the most worried (33%). These racial and ethnic differences are consistent with <a href="https://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.v8i2.847">recent research</a> on how emotions can shape politics.</p>
<p>The results also make sense in the context of the trajectory of race relations in the U.S. Black people have borne the brunt of what happens when authoritarian forces in this country have prevailed. They have suffered firsthand from anti-democratic actions being used against them, depriving them of the right to vote, for example. Throughout U.S. history, stories of racial progress often reveal a <a href="https://www.matteroffact.tv/what-factors-determine-a-sense-of-belonging-in-america-this-college-professor-crafted-a-study-to-find-out/">struggle to reconcile</a> feelings of hope and worry – particularly when thinking about what America is versus what the nation ought to be.</p>
<p>Such hope in democracy has turned into action. Efforts to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/13/voting-rights-georgia-activism-us-elections">counter</a> GOP-led attempts to <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-republican-push-to-restrict-voting-could-affect-our-elections/">suppress votes</a> are encouraging signs of citizens combating anti-democratic measures, while punishing parties deemed to be pushing them.</p>
<p>Take the example of Georgia, which has “<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-georgia-turned-blue/">flipped from Republican to Democrat</a>” in large part because of voting rights activist and Democratic politician Stacey Abrams’ <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html">tireless mobilization efforts</a>. In the midterm election, GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker underperformed among Black voters, winning less of the Black vote than GOP candidates in other states.</p>
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<p>The breaking of the Republican stronghold in Georgia fits with a broader theme of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2021/01/06/last-night-in-georgia-black-americans-saved-democracy/">Black voters casting ballots to “save democracy</a>,” as scholars writing for the Brookings Institution think tank put it. In rejecting anti-democratic measures – and representatives of the party held responsible – in Georgia, “Black people were the solution for an authentic democracy.”</p>
<p>Black women <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26855823">deserve the most credit</a> here, consistently voting for pro-democracy candidates. Not surprisingly, when broken down by race and gender, our survey shows that Black women are most hopeful (56%), some way ahead of white men (43%), with Black men and white women both at 42%.</p>
<h2>A democracy, to keep for good.</h2>
<p>Democracy has long been a cherished ideal in the U.S. – but one that from the country’s founding was perceived to be fragile. </p>
<p>When asked what sort of political system the Founding Fathers had agreed upon during the <a href="https://www.constitutionfacts.com/us-constitution-amendments/the-constitutional-convention/">Constitutional Convention of 1787</a>, Benjamin Franklin famously replied: “<a href="https://tinyurl.com/2s3dcedy">A republic, if you can keep it</a>.”</p>
<p>While acknowledging that the success of our government isn’t promised, Franklin’s words serve as a reminder that <a href="https://youtu.be/nDg3EsMcsBs">citizens must work relentlessly</a> to maintain and protect what the Constitution provides. What we’ve discovered, both from our survey and from how people voted, is that Americans are sending a clear message that they support democracy, and will fight anti-democratic measures – something that politicians of all parties might benefit from listening to if we want to keep our republic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ray Block Jr works for the African American Research Collaborative. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrene Wright and Mia Angelica Powell do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A survey of more than 12,000 US voters found that Black Americans are among the most hopeful about the direction of politics – and they are turning that emotion into action at the polls.Ray Block Jr, Brown-McCourtney Career Development Professor in the McCourtney Institute and associate professor of political science and African American studies, Penn StateAndrene Wright, Presidential Postdoctoral Fellow, Penn StateMia Angelica Powell, PhD Student in Department of Political Science, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1972702023-01-12T13:22:17Z2023-01-12T13:22:17ZUS birth rates are at record lows – even though the number of kids most Americans say they want has held steady<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504125/original/file-20230111-17-rb1th.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=605%2C401%2C4607%2C3396&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More one-and-done families influence the overall birth rate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/close-up-of-multi-ethnic-parents-kissing-son-royalty-free-image/764783339">Maskot via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Birth rates are falling in the U.S. After the highs of the Baby Boom in the mid-20th century and the lows of the Baby Bust in the 1970s, birth rates were relatively stable for nearly 50 years. But during the Great Recession, from 2007-2009, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr70/nvsr70-17.pdf">birth rates declined sharply</a> – and they’ve kept falling. In 2007, average birth rates were right around 2 children per woman. By 2021, levels had dropped more than 20%, close to the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/birth-rates-science-coronavirus-pandemic-health-d51571bda4aa02eafdd42265912f1202">lowest level in a century</a>. Why? </p>
<p>Is this decline because, as some suggest, young people <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/adoption-highest-forms-love-pope-francis-says-rcna11065">aren’t interested in having children</a>? Or are people facing increasing barriers to becoming parents?</p>
<p><iframe id="kHhvl" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kHhvl/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yEWD08QAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">We are demographers</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=2c_rF_IAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">who study</a> how people make plans for having kids and whether they are able to carry out those intentions.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12535">In a recent study</a>, we analyzed how changes in childbearing goals may have contributed to recent declines in birth rates in the United States. Our analysis found that most young people still plan to become parents but are delaying childbearing.</p>
<h2>Digging into the demographic data</h2>
<p>We were interested in whether people have changed their plans for childbearing over the past few decades. And we knew from other research that the way people think about having children changes as they get older and their circumstances change. Some people initially think they’ll have children, then gradually <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-018-0739-7">change their views over time</a>, perhaps because they don’t meet the right partner or because they work in demanding fields. Others don’t expect to have children at one point but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12402">later find themselves desiring to have children</a> or, sometimes, unexpectedly pregnant. </p>
<p>So we needed to analyze both changes over time – comparing young people now to those in the past – and changes across the life course – comparing a group of people at different ages. No single data set contains enough information to make both of those comparisons, so we combined information from multiple surveys. </p>
<p>Since the 1970s, the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg/index.htm">National Surveys of Family Growth</a>, a federal survey run by the National Centers for Health Statistics, have been asking people about their childbearing goals and behaviors. The survey doesn’t collect data from the same people over time, but it provides a snapshot of the U.S. population about every five years.</p>
<p>Using multiple rounds of the survey, we are able to track what’s happening, on average, among people born around the same time – what demographers call a “cohort” – as they pass through their childbearing years.</p>
<p>For this study, we looked at 13 cohorts of women and 10 cohorts of men born between the 1960s and the 2000s. We followed these cohorts to track whether members intended to have any children and the average number of children they intended, starting at age 15 and going up to the most recent data collected through 2019.</p>
<p><iframe id="ZJ7Hk" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZJ7Hk/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We found remarkable consistency in childbearing goals across cohorts. For example, if we look at teenage girls in the 1980s – the cohort born in 1965-69 – they planned to have 2.2 children on average. Among the same age group in the early 21st century – the cohort born in 1995-1999 – girls intended to have 2.1 children on average. Slightly more young people plan to have no children now than 30 years ago, but still, the vast majority of U.S. young adults plan to have kids: about 88% of teenage girls and 89% of teenage boys.</p>
<p>We also found that as they themselves get older, people plan to have fewer children – but not by much. This pattern was also pretty consistent across cohorts. Among those born in 1975-79, for instance, men and women when they were age 20-24 planned to have an average of 2.3 and 2.5 children, respectively. These averages fell slightly, to 2.1 children for men and 2.2 children for women, by the time respondents were 35-39. Still, overwhelmingly, most Americans plan to have children, and the average intended number of children is right around 2. </p>
<p>So, if childbearing goals haven’t changed much, why are birth rates declining?</p>
<h2>What keeps people from their target family size?</h2>
<p>Our study can’t directly address why birth rates are going down, but we can propose some explanations based on other research. </p>
<p>In part, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2016.06.024">this decline is good news</a>. There are fewer unintended births than there were 30 years ago, a decrease linked to increasing use of effective contraceptive methods like IUDs and implants and improved insurance coverage from the Affordable Care Act.</p>
<p>Compared with earlier eras, people today start having their children later. These delays also contribute to declining birth rates: Because people start later, they have less time to meet their childbearing goals before they reach biological or social age limits for having kids. As people wait longer to start having children, they are also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0073">more likely to change their minds about parenting</a>.</p>
<p>But why are people getting a later start on having kids? We hypothesize that Americans see parenthood as harder to manage than they might have in the past. </p>
<p>Although the U.S. economy overall <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2018/article/great-recession-great-recovery.htm">recovered after the Great Recession</a>, many young people, in particular, feel <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10834-017-9548-1">uncertain about their ability to achieve</a> some of the things they see as necessary for having children – including a good job, a stable relationship and safe, affordable housing. </p>
<p>At the same time, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0146-4">costs of raising children</a> – from child care and housing to <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d21/tables/dt21_330.10.asp">college education</a> – are rising. And parents may feel more pressure to live up to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soy107">high-intensive parenting standards</a> and prepare their children for an <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520278103/motherload">uncertain world</a>. </p>
<p>And while our data doesn’t cover the last three years, the COVID-19 pandemic may have increased feelings of instability by exposing the lack of support for American parents.</p>
<p>For many parents and would-be parents, the “right time” to have a child, or have another child, may feel increasingly out of reach – no matter their ideal family size.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197270/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Hayford receives funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institutes of Child Health and Human Development and the National Institute on Aging. She is affiliated with the American Sociological Association and the Population Association of America. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Benjamin Guzzo receives funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver Institute of Child Health and Human Development. She is affiliated with the Population Association of America, the American Sociological Association, the National Council on Family Relations, and the Council on Contemporary Families. </span></em></p>Childbearing goals have remained remarkably consistent over the decades. What has changed is when people start their families and how many kids they end up having.Sarah Hayford, Professor of Sociology; Director, Institute for Population Research, The Ohio State UniversityKaren Benjamin Guzzo, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1967172022-12-21T19:59:27Z2022-12-21T19:59:27ZLGBTQ Americans are 9 times more likely to be victimized by a hate crime<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501790/original/file-20221219-22510-6k8ql8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C13%2C3035%2C2046&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Only about 1 in 3 LGBTQ victims of violent hate crimes seek professional help for mental health issues that emerge after an attack.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participant-seen-holding-a-rainbow-umbrella-at-the-protest-news-photo/1241559504?phrase=transgender protest USA&adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0279363">our recent analysis</a> of the <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/programs/ncvs">National Crime Victimization Survey</a>, we found that the odds of being a violent hate crime victim for LGBTQ people was nine times greater than it was for cisgender and straight people from 2017 to 2019. </p>
<p>There were an average annual 6.6 violent hate crime victimizations per 1,000 LGBTQ people during this three year period.</p>
<p>In contrast, there were 0.6 violent hate crime victimizations per 1,000 cisgender and straight people. </p>
<p><a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/hate-crime-victimization-2005-2019">A hate crime</a> is an attack or threat of an attack that’s motivated by the victim’s perceived race, ethnicity, sexuality, gender or religion. Or it could include someone’s association with any of the previous categories, such as an anti-Muslim hate crime committed against <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/this-is-in-our-dna-how-sikh-americans-advocate-for-solidarity-while-campaigning-against-hate-crimes-prejudices">someone who is Sikh</a>.</p>
<p>The National Crime Victimization Survey is a nationally representative survey that asks over 200,000 people about non-fatal crimes that happened to them in the past year. Since 1999, it has asked victims if they suspected their victimization was motivated by certain biases, and if so, the reason for the bias. We use the National Crime Victimization Survey classification of hate crimes, which is consistent with <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/hate-crime-victimization-2005-2019">the Bureau of Justice Statistics classification</a>: victimizations that involve hate language, hate symbols, or were confirmed by police to be a hate crime.</p>
<p>Since 2017, the National Crime Victimization Survey has been documenting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba6910">sexual orientation and gender identity of respondents</a>. This has allowed us to estimate the rate of hate crimes against LGBTQ people for the first time.</p>
<h2>Physical and psychological repercussions</h2>
<p>Another notable finding from our study suggested that violent hate crimes involving LGBTQ victims have unique characteristics .</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764202046001003">Prior research has</a> suggested that LGBTQ victims of hate crime frequently did <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-4560.00263">not know the offender</a>. In our analyses, 49% of violent hate crimes with LGBTQ victims involved an attacker who was a close friend, family member, partner or former partner.</p>
<p>We also found that LGBTQ victims of violent hate crimes were more likely to have physical and psychological symptoms as a result of the attack when compared with LGBTQ victims of violent crimes that were not hate crimes. </p>
<p>For example, LGBTQ victims of violent hate crimes were four times more likely to feel worried or anxious as a result of the incident than LGBTQ victims of non-hate violence. Despite this, we found that only about 1 in 3 LGBTQ victims of violent hate crimes sought professional help for their symptoms. </p>
<h2>Hate crimes don’t just affect the victims</h2>
<p>Our findings complement a series of studies relying on the National Crime Victimization Survey that showed that LGBTQ people are generally victims of crimes <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba6910">at higher rates than cisgender and straight people</a>, with bisexual women having <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.306017">markedly higher victimization rates than lesbians</a>, and transgender people having <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.306099">higher victimization rates than cisgender people</a>.</p>
<p>Hate crimes do not just affect an individual – <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/legislation/hearings/the-rise-of-anti-lgbtqi-extremism-and-violence-in-the-united-states">whole communities can be affected by hate</a>. In what’s known as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12119-020-09710-y">collective trauma</a>,” LGBTQ people often internalize the violence inflicted on other members of the community.</p>
<p>LGTBQ people are still recovering from the November 2022 <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/watch/club-q-mass-shooting-survivors-testify-on-capitol-hill-in-hearing-on-anti-lgbtq-violence-157661253825">mass shooting at Club Q</a>, an LGBTQ bar in Colorado Springs. The accused shooter has been charged with <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/club-q-shooting-colorado-springs-anderson-lee-aldrich-charged/">48 counts of hate-motivated violence</a>. </p>
<p>Our findings allow us to more fully characterize the stories of LGBT victims – and the heightened danger they face across the country.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.rti.org/expert/lynn-langton">Lynn Langton</a> contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196717/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Ryan Flores receives funding from the Williams Institute at the UCLA School of Law as a Visiting Scholar and the Public Religion Research Institute as a Public Fellow. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilan Meyer and Rebecca Stotzer do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time, researchers have been able to produce estimates of the rate of hate crimes against LGBTQ people.Andrew Ryan Flores, Visiting Scholar at the Williams Institute and Assistant Professor of Government, American UniversityIlan Meyer, Distinguished Senior Scholar of Public Policy, University of California, Los AngelesRebecca Stotzer, Professor of Social Work, University of HawaiiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1954022022-11-28T16:56:11Z2022-11-28T16:56:11ZMussels are disappearing from the Thames and growing smaller – and it’s partly because the river is cleaner<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497604/original/file-20221128-533-pch8v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C0%2C997%2C657&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The population of River Thames freshwater mussels has declined by almost 95% since 1964.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/two-large-river-mussels-on-pier-2021878166">BadPixma/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Freshwater ecosystems, including rivers, are home to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1017/S1464793105006950">10% of all known animal species</a>. Yet at the same time, they are losing their <a href="https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-GB/">species diversity</a> faster than any other ecosystem type globally. Because species of animals respond to different threats in various ways, it makes it difficult to assess the health of these river systems.</p>
<p>But the population status of species such as freshwater mussels can reveal wider trends in the ecosystem. Freshwater mussels live in riverbeds and feed by filtering algae and other organic particles from the water. As they burrow into the riverbed and remain largely stationary, they are exposed to many of the stressors threatening rivers and are therefore a useful indicator the health of the river in which they live.</p>
<p>Mussels also serve as ecosystem engineers. They maintain clear water and prevent the development of harmful algal blooms. They also promote freshwater biodiversity by providing habitat and nutrients for <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/aqc.815">riverbed invertebrates</a>. Freshwater mussels are among the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10750-017-3486-7">most threatened animal groups</a> in the world. Yet in Britain we have little information on the health of these species.</p>
<p>I participated in a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13835">recent survey</a> which evaluated the population status of freshwater mussels in the River Thames. We found an alarming deterioration in the number and size of the mussels, which could harm the health of the river ecosystem. But some of the changes we observed may be the outcome of efforts to return the River Thames to a more “natural state”. </p>
<h2>The river’s mussels under threat</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2489">One influential survey</a>, carried out in 1964, underpins much of our understanding about freshwater mussels in the River Thames. The survey was one of the first to quantitatively evaluate freshwater mussel populations. It was conducted at a site near Reading by Christina Negus, then a postgraduate researcher from the University of Reading.</p>
<p>Her research found that freshwater mussels represent 90% of living organisms by weight on the Thames’ riverbed. The survey’s findings emphasised the role of freshwater mussels as some of the river’s key species. </p>
<p>Our survey reassessed the population of freshwater mussels along the same stretch of the river and used methods identical to those used by Negus. We found that the population of freshwater mussels has declined by almost 95% since 1964. One species, the <a href="https://freshwaterhabitats.org.uk/pond-clinic/identifying-creatures-pond/depressed-river-mussel/">depressed river mussel</a>, may have disappeared entirely from the river. </p>
<p>The results of our survey also suggest that River Thames mussels are smaller than they were at the time of the original survey. Their total size and rates of growth have fallen by 10%-35% compared to 1964.</p>
<p>We also identified the presence of an invasive species of mussel, the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-zebra-mussels-and-why-should-we-care-about-them">zebra mussel</a>. Zebra mussels are found across Europe and North America and threaten native mussel species by settling directly on their shells, competing for food, and sometimes preventing a mussel from opening. The presence of the highly invasive Zebra mussel, which was not observed in the 1964 survey, could have contributed to the decline in the overall number of freshwater mussels recorded by our survey.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A closed zebra mussel with an orange shell marked with a zebra-like pattern." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497643/original/file-20221128-22-n9yes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497643/original/file-20221128-22-n9yes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497643/original/file-20221128-22-n9yes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497643/original/file-20221128-22-n9yes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497643/original/file-20221128-22-n9yes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497643/original/file-20221128-22-n9yes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497643/original/file-20221128-22-n9yes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The survey recorded the invasive zebra mussel in the River Thames.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/zebra-mussels-invasive-species-that-has-1225419361">RLS Photo/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>A cleaner river</h2>
<p>Lower levels of nutrients, such as phosphate, in the river may be part of the reason why mussels are smaller and slower to grow than observed in 1964. Nutrients stimulate the growth of algae, a key source of food for mussels. Reduced nutrient content could therefore lead to lower food availability for mussels and slower growth rates as a result.</p>
<p>The Thames was heavily polluted at the time of the original survey. We spoke to Negus, who recalled having a sore throat for the entire two years she conducted her survey, a symptom she attributes to the polluted river. This implies that the size and growth rates of the freshwater mussels recorded in 1964 may have increased artificially due to nutrient pollution from human sources.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497606/original/file-20221128-20-n56lpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A slick of green algae covering a pond." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497606/original/file-20221128-20-n56lpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497606/original/file-20221128-20-n56lpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497606/original/file-20221128-20-n56lpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497606/original/file-20221128-20-n56lpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497606/original/file-20221128-20-n56lpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497606/original/file-20221128-20-n56lpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497606/original/file-20221128-20-n56lpd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Algae is a food source for mussels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/algal-blooms-due-over-phosphate-materials-1824637664">Manishankar Patra/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But since being declared “biologically dead” in 1957 due to its level of pollution, the Thames has <a href="https://www.zsl.org/natureatheart/the-state-of-the-thames-2021">recovered</a> and is now ranked among the <a href="https://www.mylondon.news/news/zone-1-news/thames-cleanest-river-world-dirty-20601885">cleanest urban rivers</a> globally. </p>
<p><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-framework/info/intro_en.htm">Tighter rules</a> around the release of sewage have resulted in concentrations of phosphate in the River Thames falling considerably since the 1960s. Viewed this way, today’s smaller mussels may be indicative of the river’s return to a more “natural” state.</p>
<h2>Changing ecosystem</h2>
<p>However, the picture is more complicated than this implies. Invasive species and broader threats to habitat, such as <a href="https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/tideway-river-bed-dredging-begins-at-deptford-creek-19-03-2020/">dredging</a> and intensive land use along the riverbank, may also have driven the decline in what were once some of the river’s most abundant animals. So these declines sound a warning about the health of the river’s ecosystems. </p>
<p>Among the mussels experiencing the greatest declines are the <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/155667/4818080">duck mussel</a> and the <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/155543/4796089">painter’s mussel</a>, the populations of which have declined by 98.9% and 96.8% respectively. Both of these species are generally considered common and are not listed as threatened. There are no monitoring programmes or protections currently in place for these species as a result. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Several of the species of mussel that are found in the Thames positioned on grass." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497639/original/file-20221128-14-cny4cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497639/original/file-20221128-14-cny4cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497639/original/file-20221128-14-cny4cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497639/original/file-20221128-14-cny4cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497639/original/file-20221128-14-cny4cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497639/original/file-20221128-14-cny4cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497639/original/file-20221128-14-cny4cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Several of the freshwater mussel species found in the Thames – the painter’s mussel, the swollen river mussel, and the duck mussel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If our findings reflect a wider decline in the status of freshwater mussels in rivers across the UK, then we could be approaching a critical and unexpected population collapse. Such a collapse is likely to have a negative impact on freshwater ecosystems because of mussels’ role in promoting invertebrate biodiversity.</p>
<p>So while a cleaner river is positive for river biodiversity, such severe declines in these once abundant species suggest we should increase our efforts to protect these valuable yet fragile ecosystems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195402/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Isobel Ollard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new survey has revealed an alarming deterioration in the health of the River Thames ecosystem – but some of the recorded changes may be the result of a cleaner river.Isobel Ollard, PhD Researcher, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1941312022-11-16T17:22:59Z2022-11-16T17:22:59ZWhat psychology tells us about the failure of the emergency services at the Manchester Arena bombing<p>The second stage of the <a href="https://files.manchesterarenainquiry.org.uk/live/uploads/2022/11/03141804/MAI-Volume-2-Part-i.pdf">official inquiry</a> into the Manchester Arena bombing in 2017 has produced a harrowing account of what went wrong in the emergency response.</p>
<p>The terrorist attack resulted in the deaths of 22 innocent victims. Sir John Saunders, chair of the inquiry, concluded that Jesip, the joint emergency services interoperability programme, had failed – and that this was not the first time it had happened.</p>
<p>Jesip provides national strategic leadership with the aim of making it easier for different emergency services to work together – which is obviously very challenging but vital in cases such as the Manchester attack. Fire services and ambulance workers will all be on the scene trying to help people in distress while the police try to keep others safe from further harm. </p>
<p>The idea of interoperability is that people from the different emergency organisations, each with their own cultures, values and goals, can find a common set of principles to make sure that they work together smoothly in a crisis.</p>
<p>Jesip, which was established a decade ago, made several organisational changes to how the emergency services operate. A <a href="https://www.jesip.org.uk/joint-doctrine/introduction-to-the-joint-doctrine/">shared national doctrine</a> was adopted, outlining “joint principles” including that commanders should quickly co-locate at the scene. The emergency services also now share a joint decision-making model, so that each is involved in making decisions during major emergencies.</p>
<h2>Why did Jesip fail in Manchester?</h2>
<p>A fatal early failure in the response to the Manchester attack was a lack of communication between emergency services. Jesip’s goal to make emergency groups work together coherently had not been met.</p>
<p>There was conflicting communication about the location of the shared rendezvous point for emergency services. There was also no clarity over whether the attack had been declared a “major incident”. This created chaos and confusion during the first few minutes of the attack, when getting a shared grip of the situation was vital.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2011-21802-021">psychology of groups</a> tells us that individuals are motivated to make biased and positive evaluations about their “in-group” in comparison with other “outgroups”. This occurs in social groups but also <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234021306_Identification_in_Organizations_An_Examination_of_Four_Fundamental_Questions">in the workplace</a> when individuals identify strongly with their organisation. </p>
<p>When organisations seek to change how their teams are structured, there is a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/job.2164">risk</a> that those feeling strongly connected to their pre-existing group (the police service, for example) might feel threatened by the establishment of a new collective group (such as Jesip).</p>
<p>Saunders reflected that Jesip had failed to find its way into the “muscle memory” of the emergency services. He said emergency groups continued to operate in silos, abandoning Jesip principles and falling back on existing ways of working. This suggests that buy-in to Jesip by the emergency services at Manchester was low. The group psychology in operation that day may have been focused on in-groups rather than the collective.</p>
<h2>The psychology of team decision-making</h2>
<p>The Manchester inquiry also criticised the emergency services’ failure to make joint decisions. Most notable was the lack of emergency responders operating in the City Room (the location of the explosion), where they were needed to treat and evacuate critically injured casualties. </p>
<p>There was no joint decision made to assess the risk level for emergency workers operating in this area and, crucially, whether they required personal protective equipment. This meant that some emergency responders decided to deploy whereas others did not.</p>
<p>Prior to the Manchester attack, my colleagues and I collected data from a <a href="https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/joop.12159">fictitious counter-terrorism</a> simulation that closely mirrored what happened in Manchester. We presented a multi-agency team of commanders with a choice about whether to commit non-specialist responders into the high-risk zone to help with casualty treatment.</p>
<p>Out of the 13 multi-agency teams involved, only four decided to commit responders. This failure of the blue light services to commit responders was exactly what happened after the Arena bombing. We also found that many teams spent a long time deliberating over this choice, when decisive action was required.</p>
<p>A possible explanation for these decision difficulties was ambiguity in Jesip’s joint decision model. Commanders in our study perceived each other to be working towards a common goal “to save lives”. But the translation of that goal into action meant different things to different services, leading to contradictory decisions.</p>
<p>The police wanted to neutralise the threat, paramedics wanted to treat casualties, and the fire service sought to ensure safe procedures were in place before taking high-risk action. These aims could not all be achieved at the same time.</p>
<p>We argued that despite being good in theory, the joint decision model might reinforce existing psychological divisions between different services in practice. This is especially problematic when coupled with the assumption that all team members are working towards the same “save life” goal.</p>
<p>The decision not to deploy staff into Manchester Arena’s City Room might have been intended to help protect the lives of emergency workers – but it also limited the saving of lives of members of the public.</p>
<h2>Avoiding a repeat of Manchester</h2>
<p>Saunders has outlined several recommendations in his report to “ensure that Jesip works in practice and not just in theory”. One of these is to ensure “regular ‘high fidelity’ training” to expose responders to the stress and pressure of a terrorist attack.</p>
<p>One way to achieve this is through <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2041386620926037">regular simulation-based training</a>, which closely replicates the psychological stress of a real-life event while allowing for close monitoring and evaluation.</p>
<p>Saunders has also recommended that the emergency services’ joint doctrine be reviewed and updated where necessary. Our <a href="https://crestresearch.ac.uk/projects/building-better-multi-agency-counter-terrorism-training/">current research</a> suggests the psychology of interoperability needs to be at the forefront of this review. Specifically, identifying ways to increase buy-in to Jesip by studying the psychology of groups.</p>
<p>To ensure an effective response to future terrorist attacks of this nature, the psychology of collective responding must be central to the muscle memory of the emergency services.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicola Power receives funding from the Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats – an independent Centre commissioned by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and which is funded in part by the UK’s Home Office and security and intelligence agencies.
Thanks go to my collaborators on this research: Mrs Jennifer Alcock, Dr Richard Philpot and Prof Mark Levine.</span></em></p>Group psychology can explain why emergency services failed to cooperate effectively in the aftermath of the Manchester Arena bombing.Nicola Power, Lecturer in Psychology, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930072022-10-31T12:35:35Z2022-10-31T12:35:35ZWho sees what you flush? Wastewater surveillance for public health is on the rise, but a new survey reveals many US adults are still unaware<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492137/original/file-20221027-41745-jsbvpb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=582%2C97%2C4809%2C3492&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Whether a wastewater sample is taken at the street level or a treatment plant affects the size of the group of people it represents.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Louisville</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flush and forget? Not if you have a toilet that flushes to one of <a href="https://arcg.is/1aummW">over 3,000 sites around the world</a> where researchers are using wastewater to track SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acsestwater.1c00405">what do members of the public actually know</a> about wastewater surveillance? And what do they think about researchers tracking what they send down the drain at their home?</p>
<p>While not new, this form of public health surveillance has gained attention since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Tracking the rise and fall of the level of coronavirus in wastewater provides officials with a snapshot of how much SARS-CoV-2 is circulating in a community. Together with data on case counts, health officials can use this information to guide their local actions – for example, choosing to increase testing or vaccination campaigns. Where available, immunocompromised individuals may also find it useful to access data for their local area <a href="https://arcg.is/1aummW">via online dashboards</a> as they try to manage their overall exposure risk.</p>
<p>In our recent study, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=FZnnXt0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AXvaPbMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">colleagues</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9XQ1LJoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">and</a> I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0275075">explored public perceptions</a> of using sewer samples for monitoring community health in the United States. Using an online survey of more than 3,000 adults in the U.S., we were able to gauge respondents’ general boundaries in this expanding field of community monitoring. We didn’t find much consensus, suggesting the need for more public outreach and education.</p>
<h2>What happens after you flush</h2>
<p>Households connected to sewer lines pay utilities to remove their waste. In the absence of a sewer problem, most people are able to flush and forget.</p>
<p>Sewage typically travels through publicly owned infrastructure to a treatment plant operated by a utility. Researchers and officials currently sample wastewater not just for the coronavirus but also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.o2211">for polio</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-20076-z">and flu monitoring</a>. Samples are usually collected with permission of the utility, but no one asks the households being sampled if they are willing to participate. <a href="https://www.epa.gov/npdes/municipal-wastewater">Treatment plants conduct</a> other kinds of Environmental Protection Agency-mandated testing, such as looking for pollutants in wastewater.</p>
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<p>In our survey, we found that a large portion of the public was unaware that sewage surveillance takes place for public health purposes in many areas. Respondents were more aware of other forms of public health monitoring, such as restaurant inspections and water quality testing.</p>
<p>That about half of respondents didn’t even know sewage monitoring is happening underscores the fact that no one asks individual residents for permission to test an area’s wastewater.</p>
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<p>We found more support for monitoring external threats in wastewater, such as diseases, environmental toxins and terrorist threats like anthrax. Fewer people expressed support for tracking lifestyle behaviors, such as smoking or use of birth control, diet, and indicators of mental health, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155961">including stress hormones</a>, which are emerging areas of monitoring not yet tracked in many local areas.</p>
<p>Our results suggest that the public may not want unchecked monitoring of their toilet flushes.</p>
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<p>When we asked people to consider the various scales at which wastewater surveillance can happen, we found a general theme of “the bigger, the better.” Sampling from a larger area is a way to protect privacy, since one person’s information is mixed in with many others’.</p>
<p>More respondents said they were OK with monitoring an entire city compared with monitoring at the level of individual residences. Notably, more respondents who self-reported living in urban areas endorsed monitoring the entire city than those who self-reported living in suburban areas.</p>
<h2>Looking at flushes is not going away</h2>
<p>My colleagues and I did not find significant nationwide fear about sewage surveillance among our survey respondents. But those surveyed certainly had opinions that officials may want to consider more deeply when it comes to wastewater tracking. </p>
<p>While wastewater surveillance in urban or suburban areas provides good coverage for an overall picture of COVID-19 in the community, coverage is still not fully inclusive of the entire public. It would not capture data from the approximately 15% of the United States population whose homes <a href="https://www.unwater.org/publications/who/unicef-joint-monitoring-program-water-supply-sanitation-and-hygiene-jmp-progress-0">do not have a sewer connection</a>. That group includes people who have septic tanks in more rural areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man in protective gear pouring wastewater sample into a clear jar" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491106/original/file-20221021-7706-kry1du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sampling wastewater can be done at a range of scale from a single building to a whole neighborhood or city.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Louisville</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How protected is individual privacy? Confirming that SARS-CoV-2 is present in a city is different than confirming it’s present in a neighborhood, and that’s different from confirming it’s present in a dormitory or prison building. Looking at a wider area ensures the sample stays anonymous. At the moment, there are no health privacy protection laws or regulations about sewage surveillance in the U.S. Officials rely on goodwill from utilities to gain access to wastewater and the health information it holds, and often partner with commercial laboratories, <a href="https://biobot.io">such as Biobot</a>.</p>
<p>Wastewater data is immensely valuable. However this public health surveillance tool is used in the future, our survey suggests that there’s room for more education and conversation with the public. After all, they’re the one’s being monitored.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193007/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rochelle H. Holm receives funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, as well as grants from the James Graham Brown Foundation and the Owsley Brown II Family Foundation. </span></em></p>Public health officials monitor sewage in local communities to track COVID, polio, flu and more. But no one asks the people being monitored for their permission – raising some questions and concerns.Rochelle H. Holm, Associate Professor of Medicine, University of LouisvilleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1920352022-10-26T14:41:35Z2022-10-26T14:41:35ZEating lots of meat is bad for the environment – but we don’t know enough about how consumption is changing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491310/original/file-20221024-1583-zazmtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Contrary to official estimates, Britons may still be consuming too much meat.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/butcher-shop-654313183">ALPA PROD/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Responsible for roughly <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34813623/">a third</a> of the UK’s diet-related carbon emissions, the consumption and production of meat is a substantial contributor to climate change. A <a href="https://www.nationalfoodstrategy.org/">report</a> commissioned by the government last year reflects this, finding that people must eat 30% less meat by the end of the decade to reduce the environmental impact of food production.</p>
<p>Research indicates that meat consumption habits have changed. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00228-X/fulltext">One study</a> reports that the amount of meat eaten each day per person fell by 17.4 g on average in the UK between 2008 and 2019. </p>
<p>This result has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/food/2021/oct/08/cuts-uk-meat-consumption-doubled-health-researchers-food">widely reported</a> and was obtained by analysing the meat consumption data published in the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-diet-and-nutrition-survey">National Diet and Nutrition Survey</a>. By asking participants to record how much of a certain food they have eaten over a given time period, the survey captures nationally representative data on the food people are eating in the UK.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-350/v2">research</a> compared this trend to other datasets and instead suggests that the reduction in meat consumption could be far smaller. Britons may still be consuming too much meat, with profound environmental consequences.</p>
<h2>Recording meat consumption</h2>
<p>Trends in food consumption are estimated using three types of dataset: dietary recall surveys (which include the National Diet and Nutrition Survey), household budget surveys and food balance sheets. Each dataset is constructed using a different type of information and the accuracy of each is unclear.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491315/original/file-20221024-25-9gb235.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman selecting a packet of meat from the meat section of a supermarket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491315/original/file-20221024-25-9gb235.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491315/original/file-20221024-25-9gb235.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491315/original/file-20221024-25-9gb235.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491315/original/file-20221024-25-9gb235.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491315/original/file-20221024-25-9gb235.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491315/original/file-20221024-25-9gb235.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491315/original/file-20221024-25-9gb235.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Household budget surveys can be used as an indirect measure of food consumption.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woman-purchasing-packet-meat-supermarket-1109534852">LADO/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Household budget surveys ask participants to record how much of a particular food item they have purchased. Fewer meat purchases tends to mean less household meat consumption. <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/family-food-statistics">Household budget surveys</a> show just a 3% decline (-4.6 g) in meat purchases in the UK from 2008 to 2019.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBS">Food balance sheets</a> instead measure how much food is available to buy and are constructed using industry data. In practise, a rise in meat supply suggests that an increasing amount of meat is being consumed. Meat supply increased by 5% (10.9 g) in the UK over the same period.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph showing the reduction in meat consumption between the three datasets between 2008 and 2018." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510836/original/file-20230217-18-wwl3re.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510836/original/file-20230217-18-wwl3re.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510836/original/file-20230217-18-wwl3re.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510836/original/file-20230217-18-wwl3re.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510836/original/file-20230217-18-wwl3re.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510836/original/file-20230217-18-wwl3re.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510836/original/file-20230217-18-wwl3re.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The levels of of meat reduction vary between the three datasets. PHD = Planetary Health Diet recommendations of 43g of meat per.
day.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although neither household budget surveys or food balance sheets directly measure consumption, they are often used to approximate changes in consumption patterns. Compared to the trends captured by the National Diet and Nutrition Survey, household budget surveys imply a smaller decline in UK meat consumption while food balance sheets imply an increase in meat consumption. </p>
<p>This variation means that we cannot be certain about which dataset provides the closest approximation of actual meat consumption. Two factors are responsible for the wide range in consumption estimates.</p>
<h2>1. Underreporting</h2>
<p>Surveys often depend on inaccurate data. As they rely on <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jn/article/130/8/2049/4686379">individual reporting</a>, both household budget surveys and dietary recall surveys are subject to <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/nutrition-research-reviews/article/assessing-dietary-intake-who-what-and-why-of-underreporting/BE3AD33BD7839172C1C7E8D9FE5EC98B">underreporting</a>. This can occur when respondents accidentally forget to record the food that they have eaten or do not wish to declare it. </p>
<p>Underreporting seems to be <a href="https://www.bi.team/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/16-07-12-Counting-Calories-Final.pdf">increasing over time</a>. This could be the result of many factors, but <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17433123/">some studies</a> have found that underreporting is significantly higher in overweight and obese individuals.</p>
<p><a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn03336/">Rising obesity rates</a>, increased snacking outside the home, and falling survey response rates have all interfered with the accuracy of dietary data. According to the Office for National Statistics, the National Diet and Nutrition Survey may have underestimated calorie intake <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/methodologies/agovernmentstatisticalserviceperspectiveonofficialestimatesofcalorieconsumption2019update">by as much as 34%</a> in 2019. </p>
<p>Even if there has been no change to actual consumption, the large fall in meat consumption estimated by the National Diet & Nutrition Survey could be due to increased under-reporting.</p>
<h2>2. Waste</h2>
<p>As food balance sheets rely on industry data, they are less subject to underreporting. But the amount of food that is wasted can also interfere with the accuracy of dietary data.</p>
<p>As indirect measures of consumption, food balance sheets and household budget surveys incorporate food wastage. Food on the supermarket shelf can either be bought or wasted, just as food that has been purchased can be consumed or thrown away. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491318/original/file-20221024-25-yfnpwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A pile of plastic bags on the pavement with a blue car parked on the road in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491318/original/file-20221024-25-yfnpwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491318/original/file-20221024-25-yfnpwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491318/original/file-20221024-25-yfnpwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491318/original/file-20221024-25-yfnpwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491318/original/file-20221024-25-yfnpwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491318/original/file-20221024-25-yfnpwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491318/original/file-20221024-25-yfnpwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Waste can also interfere with the accuracy of dietary data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pile-black-plastic-bags-that-contains-2130194213">tawanroong/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Changes in waste can therefore result in apparent (but not actual) changes in consumption. A reported increase in consumption could actually be masking an increase in food waste.</p>
<p>Change in the quantity of food wasted will affect the difference between true consumption and apparent consumption, measured using household budget surveys or food balance sheets. If meat waste increased and actual meat consumption decreased by the same amount: apparent meat consumption would not change.</p>
<p>This could conceal trends in declining consumption. An increase in the quantity of meat wasted could potentially be responsible for the differences in trends between the three types of dataset.</p>
<p>As a direct measure of consumption, dietary recall surveys do not include waste. Unlike household budget surveys and food balance sheets, their accuracy will not be affected by changes in the quantity of waste.</p>
<p>Some datasets suggest that UK meat consumption is declining, while other datasets suggest that uk meat consumption is on the rise. </p>
<p>Our research suggests that the decline in UK meat consumption could be much less than officially estimated. Further steps must be taken to ensure we meet the targets for a healthy and sustainable food system.</p>
<p>Better data collection on food waste and underreporting is needed. Data on the extent of underreporting in dietary datasets and the proportion of food wasted at each stage of the production chain would be a start, providing consistency in long-term dietary trends. This would allow the use of multiple different dietary datasets to more accurately approximate consumption. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated on January 20th 2023 to incorporate updated data from the FAO and to adjust for methodological changes.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192035/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Garnett is a member of the Green Party of England Wales.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerry Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Official estimates indicate that meat consumption is falling in the UK – but not all of the data agrees.Kerry Smith, PhD candidate in Biological Sciences, University of ReadingEmma Garnett, Researcher in the Health Behaviours Team, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1903972022-09-15T19:00:19Z2022-09-15T19:00:19ZWe asked Ukrainians living on the front lines what was an acceptable peace – here’s what they told us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484722/original/file-20220914-8999-q5p409.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C32%2C5455%2C3604&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Residents in Poltava, Ukraine, survey the damage from a Russian attack.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ukrainians-clear-debris-and-search-for-usable-material-news-photo/1240419188?adppopup=true">Dogukan Keskinkilic/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ukraine’s recent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/13/ukraine-reclaim-control-of-kharkiv-and-towns-seized-at-onset-of-russian-invasion">counteroffensive success</a> against Russian troops in the Kharkiv region has raised hopes that a <a href="https://theconversation.com/kharkiv-offensive-has-shown-the-west-that-ukraine-can-win-190501">larger rollback of occupying troops</a> is at hand. But this remains a daunting task: Russia continues to <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/24/ukraine-six-months-invasion">occupy roughly one-fifth</a> of the territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, which it unilaterally incorporated into the Russian Federation in 2014.</p>
<p>Victory, not peace, is the priority for Ukraine’s leadership, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declaring Ukraine will <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/07/politics/volodymyr-zelensky-interview-cnntv/index.html">not give up any of its territories to end the war</a>. But a time will come when peace will have to be made. And any agreement will need to be accepted not only by the leaders but by the Ukrainian people if it is to hold. As such, it is important to know what terms of settlement are acceptable – and perhaps more importantly, unacceptable – to ordinary Ukrainians, especially those living in front-line areas or displaced by Russia’s invasion.</p>
<p>To understand what an acceptable peace looks like to significantly war-affected Ukrainians, we <a href="https://criticalgeopolitics.com/the-costs-of-peace/">organized a face-to-face survey</a> of over 1,800 Ukrainians. The <a href="https://kiis.com.ua/">Kyiv International Institute of Sociology</a> administered the survey for us in July 2022. Around half of respondents were local residents in three Ukrainian-controlled towns close to active front-line fighting: Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Poltava. The other half comprised people internally displaced by the war who were sheltering in these towns.</p>
<p>Here are three key takeaways from the survey:</p>
<h2>1. Having a strong state that can defend territory is a top priority</h2>
<p>Our survey asked respondents an open question about what their goals were for Ukraine after the war, with the responses organized by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology into categories unseen by respondents.</p>
<p>More than half indicated that creating a peaceful and prosperous state was a top priority. Many saw the means to achieve this through military strength, with a third stating that having Ukraine emerge as a strong state with a large military that could defend its territory was their postwar aspiration for their country.</p>
<p>Slightly fewer mentioned Ukraine being a sovereign state able to make its own independent decisions as important, while 28.3% included Ukraine having full control over all its territories among their responses. More than a quarter mentioned having a state free of corruption as an important goal.</p>
<p><iframe id="WFcO8" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WFcO8/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Existing government policy aspirations attracted some support. Around 1 in 5 mentioned Ukraine becoming a member of the European Union, though only 13.1% mentioned NATO membership.</p>
<p>Even Ukraine being a democratic state fell lower down as a priority, with just 14.1% mentioning it as a top goal.</p>
<p>Our survey suggests that peace, state strength and territorial integrity rather than geopolitical status or democracy are on the minds of front-line Ukrainians today.</p>
<h2>2. Ukrainians reject concessions on self-determination, territory</h2>
<p>We also presented a series of potential war outcomes to respondents and asked them whether they found these acceptable if it meant peace. Most of these scenarios generated strong feelings, with the category “absolutely not acceptable” the most frequently used.</p>
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<p>The scenario most vehemently rejected by respondents is one in which Ukraine loses its right to determine its future in return for an end of hostilities. Yet opinion is less emphatic when it comes to the hypothetical ending of Ukraine’s aspirations of joining Western organizations. An outcome where Ukraine ends its quest for NATO membership in return for peace is absolutely unacceptable to 46% of respondents. The figure for giving up on European Union membership is 55.9%. These figures are still high, of course.</p>
<p>And while we found solid majorities rejecting territorial concessions in return for peace, the front-line Ukrainians we surveyed were less vehement when it came to concessions over Crimea than the Donbas, with 58.4% and 67% of respondents finding it “absolutely unacceptable” to concede the regions, respectively.</p>
<p>When presented with hypothetical deals in which Russia offers financial compensation or a formal apology but keeps seized Ukrainian lands, more than 80% of respondents said that such an outcome was “absolutely unacceptable.”</p>
<p>In a different question, respondents overwhelmingly agreed that most Ukrainians see their national territory as sacred.</p>
<h2>3. When it comes to negotiations, the messenger matters</h2>
<p>As well as asking front-line Ukrainians what is acceptable or not acceptable in any peace settlement, we also wanted to see if their support for negotiations would be affected by who was advocating it.</p>
<p>So we ran an experiment to test the power of different potential endorsers of negotiations toward a complete ceasefire in the war.</p>
<p>The survey participants were randomly assigned to three groups. The first group was simply asked, “How much do you support negotiations with Russia on a complete ceasefire in this war?”</p>
<p>The second group was asked the same, but also exposed to a made-up statement in which Zelenskyy stressed the importance of negotiations to prevent further soldier and civilian deaths. A third group was shown a similar endorsement, but this time it came from the leaders of the EU and the U.S.</p>
<p>The group not shown any endorsement backed negotiations by 46%. This jumped to 54% support among respondents who were shown the fictional endorsement by Zelenskyy. Interestingly, there was a small decrease in the support of ceasefire negotiations – down to 42% – when the messengers were leaders of the EU and the U.S. </p>
<p>The results suggest that the support of the Ukrainian leadership for a ceasefire negotiation is much more important than international pressure. Indeed, our survey indicates that Western leaders publicly pushing negotiations might induce a backfire effect. </p>
<h2>Taking on the voice of front-line Ukrainians</h2>
<p>Although not nationally representative – our survey focused on those displaced by war and close to active front lines – the views presented by respondents provide insight into what is important and currently unacceptable to war-afflicted Ukrainians. Those <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-most-people-refuse-to-compromise-on-territory-but-willingness-to-make-peace-depends-on-their-war-experiences-new-survey-185147">more distant from the front lines</a> and without direct experience of displacement may have even more emphatic views.</p>
<p>Ukraine’s leadership is in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-no-point-in-ceasefire-until-russia-smashed-in-face-2022-7">no mood to talk peace</a> with Russia at the moment. But negotiations will be needed at some point. Paying close attention to the views of ordinary Ukrainians is vital, for any proposed peace settlement requires their general consent to have a chance of taking hold and enduring.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190397/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gerard Toal receives research funding from the USA National Science Foundation, the Norwegian Research Council and ZOiS (Centre for East European and International Studies, Berlin). He is affiliated with the University Consortium, an inter-regional training program for outstanding students from the US, Europe, and Russia, which is funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karina V. Korostelina receives funding from USA National Science Foundation, US Department of State, US Department of Education, USAID, Open internet society, Spencer foundation, Rockefeller Foundation, MacArthur foundation, Fulbright, IREX, INTAS, and Council of Europe. </span></em></p>An overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are not willing to negotiate over the territorial integrity of the country, even if it means peace.Gerard Toal, Professor of Government and International Affairs, Virginia TechKarina Korostelina, Professor and Director of the Program on Prevention of Mass Violence, George Mason UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1872362022-08-03T12:10:26Z2022-08-03T12:10:26ZMore than 1 in 5 US adults don’t want children<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477029/original/file-20220801-26-l30rib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C7%2C5276%2C3514&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Americans are deciding to be childfree at a far younger age than previously thought.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/young-couple-viewed-from-behind-walks-down-a-street-with-news-photo/614380516?adppopup=true">Photo via Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Fears about declining fertility rates have come from sources as diverse as <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/pope-francis-claims-pets-replacing-children-many-families-selfish-s-ncna1287140">Pope Francis</a> and Tesla CEO <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1545046146548019201">Elon Musk</a>. The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson could <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/06/24/dobbs-roe-forced-pregnancy/">force women to give birth against their wishes</a>, while a recent <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/should-we-tax-the-childless-j7h9c297r">British editorial</a> even proposed a tax on people without children.</p>
<p>Media outlets regularly point out that more Americans <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/birth-rate-financial-hesitancy.html">are having fewer children</a> or <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-birth-fertility-rate-decline-having-baby-millennials-kids-cost-2021-6">forgoing parenthood altogether</a>.</p>
<p>But how many Americans want to have kids and can’t? Or are still planning to be parents down the road? How many are consciously making the choice to never have kids?</p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.census.gov/topics/health/fertility/data.html">official statistics in the United States</a> and elsewhere track fertility, they don’t provide insight into the people who have not had children. There are many different types of nonparents: “Childfree” people do not want children; “childless” people want children but can’t have them; “not-yet parents” plan to have children in the future; “undecided” people aren’t sure they will have children; and “ambivalent” people aren’t sure they would have wanted children.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-15728-z">In a 2022 study</a> of 1,500 adults in Michigan, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HVJX9_gAAAAJ&hl=en">we</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kcD2PeYAAAAJ&hl=en">found</a> that 21.64% of adults do not want to have children and therefore are choosing to be childfree. While our survey wasn’t nationally representative, the <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US,MI/PST045221">2021 Census</a> showed that Michigan is demographically similar to the United States in terms of age, race, education and income. If the pattern we have observed in Michigan reflects national trends, it would mean 50 million to 60 million American adults are childfree.</p>
<h2>Identifying childfree people</h2>
<p>To identify childfree people, we asked each participant a series of up to three questions:</p>
<ul>
<li>Do you have, or have you ever had, any biological, step-, or adopted children? </li>
<li>Do you plan to have any biological or adopted children in the future?</li>
<li>Do you wish you had or could have biological or adopted children?</li>
</ul>
<p>Respondents could answer “yes,” “no,” or “I don’t know” to each question. We classified as childfree those who answered “no” to all three.</p>
<p>Our estimate of the number of childfree people is much higher than <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4122892">past national studies</a>, which placed the percentage between 2% and 9%. This likely happened because our measurement focuses on a person’s desire to have children, not their ability. This is important because a person can be childfree whether they are biologically capable of having children or not.</p>
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<p>Our estimate is also slightly lower than an initial estimate – 27% – from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252528">a 2021 study</a> that we <a href="https://theconversation.com/far-more-adults-dont-want-children-than-previously-thought-163142">wrote about a year ago</a>. The original study did not allow respondents to answer “I don’t know” to these questions and therefore could not separate the undecided or ambivalent from the childfree. We were surprised that after refining our measurement to distinguish these unique groups, we still observed so many childfree adults.</p>
<p>Roughly half the adults in our study were parents, but childfree adults were the largest nonparent group. </p>
<h2>They’re deciding early in life</h2>
<p>People, especially women, who say they don’t want children are often told they’ll change their mind. But we found that’s likely not the case. </p>
<p>In our study, people reported making the decision to be childfree early in life, most often in their teens and 20s. Moreover, it isn’t just young people who are claiming they don’t want children. Many women who decided in their teens to be childfree are much older now, and are still childfree. </p>
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<p>Our findings depart from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1300/J002v02n02_01">research conducted in the 1970s</a>, which found that childfree adults tended to arrive at their decision later in life after postponing parenthood for many years. Earlier decisions may reflect changing norms toward parenthood and an increasing recognition and acceptance of a <a href="https://time.com/241/having-it-all-without-having-children/">childfree lifestyle</a>.</p>
<h2>Underpopulation isn’t the problem</h2>
<p>Despite Musk’s insistence that there is an underpopulation crisis, the <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/07/11/elon-musk-underpopulation-crisis-un-population-report/">global population will continue to grow</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1545046146548019201"}"></div></p>
<p>This growth will likely have a negative impact on climate change – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-long-fuse-the-population-bomb-is-still-ticking-50-years-after-its-publication-96090">some researchers contend</a> that one of the best ways to <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/best-way-reduce-your-carbon-footprint-one-government-isn-t-telling-you-about">reduce carbon emissions</a> is to have fewer children. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Dobbs decision has chilling implications for the millions of Americans who are childfree: A significant swath of them are now at risk of being forced to have children despite not wanting them.</p>
<p>Issues affecting childfree Americans go beyond reproductive freedom. For example, <a href="https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/people-managers/pages/childless-workers.aspx">workplace policies on work-life balance often favor parents</a>. Because so many people are childfree, we believe the needs of this group warrant more attention from policymakers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187236/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zachary Neal receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Watling Neal receives funding from the National Institute of Mental Health and the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research.</span></em></p>People who say they don’t want children are often told they’ll change their mind. The authors of a new study found otherwise.Zachary P. Neal, Associate Professor of Psychology, Michigan State UniversityJennifer Watling Neal, Professor of Psychology, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1853612022-07-05T12:12:32Z2022-07-05T12:12:32ZA window into the number of trans teens living in America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471761/original/file-20220630-12-b0l6yj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C17%2C3872%2C2537&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Though intolerance is still commonplace, young Americans are finding it less stigmatizing to openly identify as trans.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TransgenderTeenJourneyPart3/659bb88d7d074e9aa82e575a68bc1915/photo?Query=transgender%20teenagers&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=91&currentItemNo=36">AP Photo/Lynne Sladky</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471418/original/file-20220628-14614-ex91d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471418/original/file-20220628-14614-ex91d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471418/original/file-20220628-14614-ex91d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471418/original/file-20220628-14614-ex91d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471418/original/file-20220628-14614-ex91d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471418/original/file-20220628-14614-ex91d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471418/original/file-20220628-14614-ex91d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>In <a href="https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/publications/trans-adults-united-states/">our recent analysis</a> of the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthyyouth/data/yrbs/index.htm">Youth Risk Behavior Survey</a>, a representative health survey of high school-age Americans at the school district, state and national levels, we found that about 1.4% of youths ages 13 to 17 identify as transgender in the U.S. That proportion amounts to approximately 300,000 transgender young people.</p>
<p>The results update those from <a href="https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/Age-Trans-Individuals-Jan-2017.pdf">our 2017 study</a>, which, at the time, suggested that 0.7% of teens ages 13 to 17 openly identified as transgender. </p>
<p>While some people might assume that this means the number of trans teens has doubled in just five years, our results shouldn’t be read that way. There are a few possible reasons for the larger estimate this time around.</p>
<h2>Not necessarily a trend</h2>
<p>When compiling the 2017 report, we didn’t have relevant survey data from American teens. The Youth Risk Behavior Survey did not include a transgender status question until 2017, and the results of that survey were still being compiled when we published our report. So we relied on patterns among young adults who openly identified as transgender to arrive at a credible estimate of 0.7% for the younger cohort. </p>
<p>In its 2017 and 2019 studies, however, the Youth Risk Behavior Survey did include a question about transgender status on the questionnaires administered in 15 states. </p>
<p>We used the survey responses from youths in these 15 states to create a statistical model that takes into account both individual- and state-level characteristics, and combined the results with census data to arrive at credible estimates for all states and the District of Columbia, along with a national estimate. </p>
<p>This process is called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaa053">multilevel regression and poststratification</a>, and it’s an increasingly popular modeling strategy in the social, political and health sciences.</p>
<p>This method is an improvement upon the methods we relied upon in our 2017 report. Therefore, it’s possible that the higher proportion in 2022 is less an indication of change over time and more a reflection of better measures. </p>
<h2>Open minds</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, both studies found that young people are more likely than older people to identify as transgender. We found only 0.5% of adults 18 and older identified as transgender, which amounts to about 1.3 million adults.</p>
<p>Why the discrepancy?</p>
<p>There is no single reason that explains it, but studies have shown that younger people tend to have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfac014">warmer attitudes</a> toward transgender people than older individuals. At the same time, adults in the U.S. are <a href="https://medium.com/3streams/what-do-americans-think-about-transgender-rights-655ab5ca51fa">becoming more open to transgender rights</a>. </p>
<p>Together, these two trends suggest that transgender young people are in an environment where it is safer and less stigmatizing to openly identify.</p>
<p>Furthermore, <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-in-a-word-the-challenges-of-transgender-38633">the language around trans identities has evolved over time</a>, creating new identity categories – such as nonbinary, gender nonconforming or genderqueer – that fit under the umbrella term “transgender.” This may influence how people respond to surveys. For example, the <a href="https://transequality.org/sites/default/files/docs/usts/USTS-Full-Report-Dec17.pdf">2015 United States Transgender Survey</a> found that among those who identified as nonbinary, 61% were 18 to 24 years old, while only 5% were older than 44.</p>
<h2>A snapshot of affected teens</h2>
<p>Numerous state legislatures have proposed – while others have passed – policies restricting the ability of transgender young people to participate in <a href="https://freedomforallamericans.org/legislative-tracker/anti-transgender-legislation/">sports or receive gender-affirming health care</a>. Stigmatizing policies can adversely affect transgender people and have even been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08964289.2015.1028322">linked to suicide attempts</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="04XdL" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/04XdL/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>It’s worth noting that our estimates are only of those transgender young people who said “yes” to the question of whether they were trans in the Youth Risk Behavior Survey. It’s possible that some of the respondants would not want to disclose these aspects of themselves in a survey setting. There may also be some people who have a current gender identity or expression that is different from their assigned sex at birth who do not currently identify as transgender.</p>
<p>Our estimates, then, provide a snapshot of what could be be an even larger population that may be affected by legislation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew R. Flores receives funding from the Williams Institute in his role as a Visiting Scholar. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jody L. Herman and Kathryn K. O’Neill do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new study that breaks down the number of trans teens by state could give policymakers a better idea of how many kids will be affected by anti-trans legislation.Jody L. Herman, Senior Scholar of Public Policy at the Williams Institute, University of California, Los AngelesAndrew Ryan Flores, Visiting Scholar at the Williams Institute and Assistant Professor of Government, American UniversityKathryn K. O’Neill, Policy Analyst at the Williams Institute, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1821242022-05-01T20:06:26Z2022-05-01T20:06:26ZAre Australians socially inclusive? 5 things we learned after surveying 11,000 people for half a decade<p>As Australians across the country prepare to vote, many will be reflecting on what can help build a prosperous and inclusive society.</p>
<p>Over the last five years, we have been measuring social inclusion by surveying more than 11,000 Australians on prejudice, experiences of discrimination, sense of belonging and well-being, contact with diverse groups of people, and willingness to volunteer and advocate for social inclusion.</p>
<p>Our findings, released today in the <a href="https://www.inclusiveaustralia.com.au/resources/the-inclusive-australia-social-inclusion-index-2021-22-report">Inclusive Australia Social Inclusion Index 2021-22</a>, show discrimination remains common for some groups. Australians are identifying less with their country than before and there are signs prejudice towards some groups is dropping.</p>
<p>Social inclusion matters. <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/media-and-resources/media-releases/counting-the-billion-dollar-cost-of-racism-in-australia">Research in 2016</a> found racism alone had an economic cost of A$44.9 billion per year. In 2020, The Brotherhood of St Laurence estimated <a href="https://www.bsl.org.au/research/our-research-and-policy-work/social-exclusion-monitor/">1.2 million Australians</a> suffer “deep social exclusion”.</p>
<p>Our report provides a snapshot of a changing Australia and highlights areas to improve our sense of belonging, well-being, and opportunity to have a “fair go”. Here is what we learned:</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-research-shows-prejudice-still-high-in-australia-but-many-people-seeking-to-promote-social-inclusion-127792">New research shows prejudice still high in Australia, but many people seeking to promote social inclusion</a>
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<h2>1. Experiences of discrimination remain common, especially for some groups</h2>
<p>Half of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples surveyed experienced major discrimination in the past two years, such as being unfairly fired from a job. And nearly half experienced “everyday” discrimination at least weekly, such as being called names or receiving poor service.</p>
<p>Over time, we have also seen changes in discrimination alongside significant societal events. We are all too aware of the impact that debate around legislation such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-section-18c-and-why-do-some-politicians-want-it-changed-64660">Racial Discrimination Act</a> can have on members of the communities they are designed to support.</p>
<p>In our own data, during the time of the federal government’s same sex marriage survey in 2017, the percentage of LGBTIQ+ people who experienced “everyday” discrimination jumped from 33% to 46%. Since then, experiences of discrimination have returned to levels seen before the same sex marriage survey.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460447/original/file-20220429-9919-e3b7c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460447/original/file-20220429-9919-e3b7c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460447/original/file-20220429-9919-e3b7c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460447/original/file-20220429-9919-e3b7c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460447/original/file-20220429-9919-e3b7c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460447/original/file-20220429-9919-e3b7c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460447/original/file-20220429-9919-e3b7c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460447/original/file-20220429-9919-e3b7c9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Experiences of discrimination remain common, especially for some groups.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided.</span></span>
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<h2>2. Australians are identifying less with their country and local communities</h2>
<p>One emerging trend is the steady decline in Australians’ identification and feelings of belonging with their country and local community.</p>
<p>We measured this by asking respondents how close they felt to or identified with their local community, other Australians, and people all over the world.</p>
<p>While it is tempting to point to the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in influencing this, these changes go back to the start of the index in 2017.</p>
<p>Having a strong social identity with a group is important for taking action to benefit that group – as well as for <a href="https://iaap-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1464-0597.2008.00379.x">our own well-being</a>.</p>
<p>Despite identity declining with local community and Australia, it is reassuring that Australians’ identification with people all over the world has remained mostly unchanged, as this has been <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0963721412471346">linked</a> to reduced prejudice, greater empathy, and deeper humanitarian concerns.</p>
<h2>3. People who identify with multiple minority groups are more vulnerable</h2>
<p>By examining multiple dimensions of diversity simultaneously, our data helps shed light on intersectionality – the fact that different aspects of a person’s identity exposes them to overlapping and reinforcing forms of inequality.</p>
<p>We found people who identified with two or more minority or disadvantaged groups experienced greater levels of discrimination and lower well-being than those identifying with one group alone.</p>
<p>For example, two-thirds of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples who were also LGBTIQ+ in our survey experienced major discrimination (such as being discouraged from continuing education) in the last two years.</p>
<h2>4. We don’t regularly mix with some groups</h2>
<p>A great deal of <a href="https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/bjso.12509">research in social psychology</a> has pointed to contact with different groups of people as a remedy for prejudice.</p>
<p>Our data also showed the more contact people had with a minority group, the more they perceived that contact as pleasant.</p>
<p>In reality, however, many Australians had limited contact with people from minority groups.</p>
<p>Almost one in five (17%) of respondents reported “never” having any contact with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.</p>
<p>One in five also said they “never” had any contact with religious minorities.</p>
<h2>5. Positive signs of change are afoot</h2>
<p>In addition to discrimination, we also measured people’s agreement with statements tapping into <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ejsp.2420250106">blatant or subtle prejudice</a>, such as “If young people would only try harder they could be as well off as other Australian people”.</p>
<p>While religious and racial minorities remained the target of high levels of prejudice, this has dropped since the start of the index. In December 2021, 17% of people were highly prejudiced (meaning on average they “moderately” or “strongly” agreed with prejudiced statements) against racial minorities, down from 24% five years earlier.</p>
<p>Another promising finding in our data was the number of people willing to volunteer and take action to ensure that all people are treated equally.</p>
<p>At least half of respondents were “moderately” or “very willing” to speak up when they saw discrimination or validate the experiences of those who had been discriminated against.</p>
<p>This is important because it creates norms that prejudice is not acceptable, and amplifies the voices of minority groups.</p>
<p>As Australians head to the polling booth, hopefully it also means voters will be looking for policies that unite us and support those from minority and disadvantaged groups.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/racism-is-still-an-everyday-experience-for-non-white-australians-where-is-the-plan-to-stop-this-179769">Racism is still an everyday experience for non-white Australians. Where is the plan to stop this?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kun Zhao receives funding from Inclusive Australia, a not-for-profit organisation seeking to improve inclusion in Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam Smith, through BehaviourWorks, consults to Inclusive Australia and receives funding from them.</span></em></p>Our report provides a snapshot of a changing Australia and highlight areas that undermine our unity, well-being, and opportunity to have a ‘fair go’.Kun Zhao, Research fellow, BehaviourWorks Australia, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash UniversityLiam Smith, Director, BehaviourWorks, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1819332022-04-28T20:12:07Z2022-04-28T20:12:07ZClimate change, the environment and the cost of living top the #SetTheAgenda poll<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460422/original/file-20220428-12-rzbmg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">MICK TSIKAS/AAP Image/AAP</span> </figcaption></figure><p>When the 2022 federal election was called three weeks ago, we at The Conversation made a decision to let our readers, not politicians, decide the most important issues facing our nation. </p>
<p>We reached out on social media, in our newsletter and on The Conversation website, asking you to tell us what would influence your vote in the lead-up to the election. And now we have the results. </p>
<p>A staggering 10,000 people took part in our #SetTheAgenda poll. If you were one of those readers, thank you for sharing your views with us. </p>
<h2>Number one on the agenda</h2>
<p>Climate change was overwhelmingly the number-one issue on our readers’ agenda. In fact, more than 60% of you picked it as one of the issues with the greatest impact on your life right now.</p>
<p>Climate change, renewable energy and emissions reduction also featured highly in responses to the question “What do you want the candidates to be talking about as they compete for votes?”.</p>
<h2>Results</h2>
<p>Respondents could choose up to three topics close to their hearts. The next most common answers after climate change (62.3%) were: the environment (28.4%), cost of living (19.9%), misinformation (19.3%) and housing (14%).</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459996/original/file-20220427-17-76aa7z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459996/original/file-20220427-17-76aa7z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459996/original/file-20220427-17-76aa7z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459996/original/file-20220427-17-76aa7z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459996/original/file-20220427-17-76aa7z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459996/original/file-20220427-17-76aa7z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459996/original/file-20220427-17-76aa7z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Top 10 answers to Question 1 of the Set The Agenda poll: What issue is having the greatest impact on your life right now?</span>
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<p>Rounding out the top ten concerns were aged care, health, mental health, education and COVID-19. The topics of gender equity (7.6%) and First Nations representation (7.3%) also featured highly, just outside the top ten.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460231/original/file-20220428-20-qyi7d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460231/original/file-20220428-20-qyi7d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460231/original/file-20220428-20-qyi7d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460231/original/file-20220428-20-qyi7d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460231/original/file-20220428-20-qyi7d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=672&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460231/original/file-20220428-20-qyi7d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460231/original/file-20220428-20-qyi7d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460231/original/file-20220428-20-qyi7d0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=844&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>It was also interesting that more than 10% of responses to the question about what candidates should be talking about mentioned ICAC, integrity or corruption. Nearly 10% of respondents didn’t know who they were going to vote for. The majority of respondents (59.6%) were women.</p>
<h2>Thank you for having your say</h2>
<p>We were overwhelmed by the thoughtfulness and passion demonstrated in the responses when we asked “What do you want the candidates to be talking about as they compete for votes?‘.</p>
<p>Here are just some of the things you had to say:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Restoring integrity to federal government – designing and implementing a federal ICAC with teeth. Reducing political donations hence restoring democracy. Moving towards a renewable economy – with clear policy and commitment to ensure long term investment and behavioural change from every Australian. The importance of equality in a healthy and kind society.</p>
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<p>A discussion of how they will approach the issues above, but with a focus on First Nations voices and representation in these policies.</p>
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<p>Meaningful climate action, with adjustment policies for workers most affected by the necessary transition. Uluru Statement from the Heart, First Nations Voice in the constitution. Working for peace, not spending for war.</p>
</blockquote>
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<blockquote>
<p>How are they going to help voters, not big business?</p>
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<p>How to lower housing prices and increase housing quality, how to ensure wage growth and prosperity so millennials and Gen Z aren’t left behind.</p>
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<p>POLICY! POLICY! POLICY!! Stop with the personality red herrings – address the dearth of funds in higher education; address poverty issues, social housing, inequities in education funding, climate change – with definite positive policies… shall I go on?</p>
</blockquote>
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<p>Policies for aged care and help for small business.</p>
</blockquote>
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<h2>Now what?</h2>
<p>We will be looking to the 10,000 responses we had to the #SetTheAgenda poll to continue to shape and inform our election coverage over the coming weeks.</p>
<p>For example, one reader said they would like candidates to talk about "what they are going to do to commit to climate change, how they are going to do it and within what time frame”.</p>
<p>In response to this reader, and the many others who wrote about their interest in our major parties’ climate policies, we published <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-policy-in-2022-is-no-longer-a-political-bin-fire-but-it-remains-a-smouldering-issue-for-voters-181058">this piece</a>.</p>
<p>Another way will provide readers with the opportunity for questions, discussion, and analysis in the lead-up to the 2022 election is through in-person events with The Conversation’s Chief Political Correspondent, Michelle Grattan. Our <a href="https://www.readings.com.au/event/michelle-grattan-and-sean-kelly-on-ausvotes2022#">Melbourne</a> event will also feature journalist and author, Sean Kelly, and will be hosted by The Conversation’s Politics and Society Editor, Amanda Dunn. I will be joining Michelle on stage at our <a href="https://events.humanitix.com/the-conversation-with-michelle-grattan?_ga=2.33477053.2058278559.1651118883-1071106269.1649832155">Sydney</a> event.</p>
<p>So far, the 2022 election campaign has been notable for the paucity of policy ideas and genuine debate. But irrespective of whether the candidates turn their minds to these important questions, we will. </p>
<p>And we will continue to bring you evidence-based coverage and expert analysis this election in a way that is connected to your agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181933/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A staggering 10,000 people took part in our #SetTheAgenda poll. The number one issue was climate change.Misha Ketchell, Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1768892022-03-28T19:15:08Z2022-03-28T19:15:08ZOur population is expected to double in 80 years. We asked Australians where they want all these people to live<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453504/original/file-20220322-19-1iyrgp4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C3994%2C2976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s population is projected to grow to <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3222.0main+features52012%20(base)%20to%202101">over 50 million people by 2101</a>. This will have enormous implications for the country’s long-term infrastructure planning and prized livability, particularly in the capital cities where most growth is occurring. </p>
<p>Our recently published <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/3CVAYXHNZ9U6EFCXUJIT/full?target=10.1080/08111146.2021.2006175">research</a> examined ways we can start planning for this doubling of our population now, while we still have time to address it. Our survey asked more than 1,000 people where they think these new Australians should live, to gauge their support for different settlement patterns. </p>
<p>We presumed a net-increase of 28 million people over the next 80 years, with half of those people dispersing across existing Australian cities and towns. We then asked our respondents where would they support the other 14 million people living. </p>
<p>The study is the first of its kind to gauge community opinion on these questions at a national scale. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447152/original/file-20220217-13070-meg4ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Plan My Australia survey.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not surprisingly, our survey found strong opposition to continued growth of the state capital cities. Instead, our participants showed a strong preference for encouraging people to move to new and expanded satellite cities and rail hubs in regional areas. This finding aligns with the general <a href="https://aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tandfonline.com%2Ftoc%2Fcppr20%2Fcurrent&data=04%7C01%7Cjulian.bolleter%40uwa.edu.au%7Cfb98bea8d7ba4f8fd14b08d9e89388eb%7C05894af0cb2846d8871674cdb46e2226%7C0%7C0%7C637796542647241448%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=2nwdnySacGaj%2BwdK53YHX5AHKXLC4qYdB8wtkhbnFxA%3D&reserved=0">urban-to-regional migration that was kindled by the pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>Our aim was to understand people’s preferences for managing population growth at the national scale, with the hope it will inform a national urban policy to prepare for the coming population surge.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-cities-its-an-idea-worth-thinking-about-for-australia-92990">New cities? It's an idea worth thinking about for Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Where do we want to live?</h2>
<p>We devised our settlement pattern scenarios based on possibilities that have been proposed by <a href="https://uwap.uwa.edu.au/products/made-in-australia-the-future-of-australian-cities">academics</a> and <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/plan-australias-future-population">policy-makers</a>. Here’s how they ranked in order of popularity with our respondents:</p>
<p><strong>1. Satellite Cities:</strong> Due to the affordability and livability issues confronting the state capitals, this scenario siphons long-term population growth to 14 satellite cities like Gold Coast, Geelong and Wollongong. Respondents considered this scenario to be the most sustainable and feasible, while also ensuring livability. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447154/original/file-20220217-2552-1ahh56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>2. Rail Cities:</strong> Inspired by rail hubs in other countries, this second placed scenario funnels population growth to 18 regional cities connected to the state and federal capitals by major high-speed rail links (yet to be built). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447155/original/file-20220217-17-1gecfma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rail Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>3. Inland Cities:</strong> This scenario distributes population growth to 29 key inland centres, many with at least hypothetical capacity to take on more people.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447156/original/file-20220217-9608-bbrfyj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Inland Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>4. Western Cities:</strong> Western Australia comprises one-third of the continent but houses just over one-tenth of the population. Accordingly, this scenario boosts the populations of nine cities and towns along the west coast. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447157/original/file-20220217-13-jkihfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Western Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>5. Northern Cities:</strong> Given northern Australia’s considerable economic output and proximity to Asia, this scenario envisions an increase of the population of the nine largest northern cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447158/original/file-20220217-3064-xewcsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Northern Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>6. Sea Change Cities:</strong> Given the ever-escalating costs of coastal real estate in the capitals, this scenario channels population growth to 25 alternative sea-change cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447159/original/file-20220217-23-uttq7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sea Change Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>7. Secondary Capital Cities:</strong> Given the livability and affordability issues in Sydney and Melbourne, this scenario sees more people moving to the smaller state and territory capital cities. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447160/original/file-20220217-25-oltu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Secondary Capital Cities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>8. Megacities:</strong> Melbourne and Sydney generate the bulk of Australia’s GDP and historically have attracted the most migrants. This lowest-ranked scenario would see this trend continue with concentrated population growth in two future Australian megacities. Respondents universally loathed this scenario.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447161/original/file-20220217-19-1e6df84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Megacities.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why satellite and rail hubs are so appealing</h2>
<p>As the rankings show, Australians generally support population decentralisation away from state capitals (in particular Melbourne and Sydney) with the expansion of satellite and rail cities.</p>
<p>Such sentiments could stem from a case of national-scale NIMBY-ism (“not in my backyard”). However, over a third of our respondents were from regional and remote areas, and most of these people supported population growth in their home towns.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-australias-population-the-highest-growing-in-the-world-96523">FactCheck: is Australia's population the 'highest-growing in the world'?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We argue that expanding satellite and rail cities is a smart plan for the future because it can achieve equitable distribution of population growth and protect urban livability. Moreover, these schemes allow for better adaptation to climate change by generally avoiding coastal areas that are vulnerable to sea-level rise. </p>
<p>However, expanding regional centres into major cities comes with <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340772460_Bolleter_J_2018_The_ghost_cities_of_Australia_Springer_London">considerable challenges</a>, such as attracting industries and jobs away from the capital cities, delivering the crucial enabling infrastructure of ports, airports, rail lines, schools, housing and medical centres, and overcoming environmental challenges like water security. </p>
<h2>Why we need a national urban policy</h2>
<p>This type of ambitious planning requires a national urban policy, which is currently lacking in Australia. Our current population planning is too fragmented and uncoordinated, with states, territories and local governments all having divergent views about our common future. It resembles a <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/9431">patchwork quilt</a>.</p>
<p>As we emerge from the disruptive restrictions caused by the pandemic, which led many to embrace tree- and sea-change moves away from the capitals, there’s no better time to pursue such a coordinated national plan. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1369162287060226048"}"></div></p>
<p>There’s already some semblance of political will. The Coalition has spruiked policies for “<a href="https://cdn.liberal.org.au/pdf/policy/2016%20Coalition%20Election%20Policy%20-%20Smart%20Cities.pdf">smart cities</a>” and negotiating “<a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/territories-regions-cities/cities/city-deals">city deals</a>”, which unite local, state and federal governments on key projects. Labor, meanwhile, is fixated on building <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/our-policies/sydney-to-hunter-fast-rail">high-speed east coast rail</a>. </p>
<p>With an election looming, will either party take a harder look at the bigger question here and announce plans for a national urban policy? We can’t pretend this population boom isn’t happening – and our cities need to be ready.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julian Bolleter receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Freestone receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Our survey found strong opposition to Australian megacities, with most people preferring population growth to be in satellite cities and rail hubs outside the capitals.Julian Bolleter, Deputy Director, Australian Urban Design Research Centre, The University of Western AustraliaRobert Freestone, Professor of Planning, School of Built Environment, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1754182022-01-31T13:01:04Z2022-01-31T13:01:04ZCan delta-8 THC provide some of the benefits of pot – with less paranoia and anxiety?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443022/original/file-20220127-14-1h59kho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2119%2C1408&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hemp plants growing on a farm in Colorado.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/rows-of-green-medicinal-hemp-plants-growing-on-farm-royalty-free-image/1190284841?adppopup=true">krblokhin/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past year, you may have seen something called <a href="https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/addiction/what-is-delta-8">delta-8 THC</a> or “delta 8” appear in convenience stores and pharmacies alongside CBD gummies, oils and lotions.</p>
<p>Delta-8 THC is a hemp-derived compound that’s closely related to <a href="https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-thc-in-marijuana-4080556">delta-9 THC</a> – what’s commonly called THC and is the psychoactive component of cannabis that’s responsible for the high that users feel. </p>
<p>Like garden variety marijuana, delta-8 THC can be vaped or eaten. However, it’s rarely smoked. <a href="https://www.leafly.com/news/strains-products/i-tried-delta-8-thc-heres-what-it-feels-like">Anecdotally</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/health/marijuana-hemp-delta-8-thc.html">its fans swear by its benefits</a> – that it helps with relaxation and pain relief without intense highs that can veer into <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/gy8pa9/weed-causes-anxiety-for-some-people">anxiety</a> or <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health/marijuana-paranoia">paranoia</a>.</p>
<p>Yet there’s been a dearth of research on this compound. As public health scholars, we decided to conduct <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/can.2021.0124">the first survey of delta-8 THC users</a> to find out who was using it, why they were using it and what sort of effects it had.</p>
<h2>The latest cannabinoid to storm the market</h2>
<p>The 2018 Agriculture Improvement Act – also known as the farm bill – <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/12/14/the-farm-bill-hemp-and-cbd-explainer/">legalized the sale of hemp-derived compounds</a>. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/cbd-sales-are-soaring-but-evidence-is-still-slim-that-the-cannabis-derivative-makes-a-difference-for-anxiety-or-pain-149612">widely available CBD</a> is a hemp-derived compound. </p>
<p>Delta-8 THC is another. It’s an isomer, or chemical analog, of THC. The difference is in the position of a double bond in the carbon ring, which makes delta-8 THC <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3018800/">have a lower affinity</a> for the CB1 receptor of the endocannabinoid system in our brains. For this reason, it may be less potent than THC and cause a less-intense high.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443010/original/file-20220127-26-1lkg7sb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two charts depicting the chemical structures of delta-8 THC and delta-9 THC." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443010/original/file-20220127-26-1lkg7sb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443010/original/file-20220127-26-1lkg7sb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=201&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443010/original/file-20220127-26-1lkg7sb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=201&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443010/original/file-20220127-26-1lkg7sb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=201&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443010/original/file-20220127-26-1lkg7sb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443010/original/file-20220127-26-1lkg7sb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443010/original/file-20220127-26-1lkg7sb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The chemical structures of delta-9 THC – what’s commonly called THC – and delta-8 THC are strikingly similar. The only difference is the position of a double bond in the carbon ring.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/vs-8-thc-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol-vs-royalty-free-illustration/1357070948?adppopup=true">About time/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Natural concentrations of delta-8 THC in cannabis are too low for it to be effectively smoked in raw bud or flower. It needs to be extracted from large amounts of plant material, transformed from another cannabinoid like CBD, or synthesized chemically. The Drug Enforcement Administration <a href="https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/marijuana/m_extract_7350.html">considers artificially synthesized delta-8 THC illegal</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, delta-8 THC products <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/health/marijuana-hemp-delta-8-thc.html">have become one of the fastest-growing sectors of the hemp industry</a>. They seem to be especially popular in areas where THC products <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction">remain illegal or medical access is very difficult</a>. </p>
<p>There is little research on this component of cannabis. One study from 1973 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/cpt1973143353">found that</a> the effects of delta-8 THC mimicked those of THC, but weren’t as intense. Another, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-3205(95)00194-B">published in 1995</a>, suggested that delta-8 THC could be used as a therapeutic treatment for the adverse effects of chemotherapy.</p>
<p>These studies, however, enrolled only a dozen individuals, and few policymakers seem to even be aware of their existence. While delta-8 THC can be bought in convenience stores and hemp shops in many states, over a dozen U.S. states have <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/delta-8-thc-legal-many-states-some-want-ban-it-n1272270">blocked the sale of delta-8 THC products</a> due to a lack of research on its psychoactive effects and concerns over contamination with heavy metals and other toxic substances.</p>
<h2>Clearing the smoke with science</h2>
<p>In our study, we collected data via <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s42238-021-00115-8">an online survey</a> that was completed by more than 500 participants across 38 states.</p>
<p>Most of our participants consumed delta-8 THC through concentrates that were either eaten as edibles and tinctures or smoked by vaping – methods of ingestion that <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2017.303818">may be safer than smoking</a>. About half said they used delta-8 THC to treat a health or medical condition, and almost one-third of participants said they exclusively used delta-8 THC to treat a health condition – they didn’t use it just for fun. Common conditions treated were anxiety or panic attacks, chronic pain, depression or bipolar disorder, and stress – afflictions that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02791072.2018.1563314">people also treat with delta-9 THC</a>.</p>
<p>As we expected, participants thought that delta-8 THC had effects that were somewhat less intense compared with THC. </p>
<p>What’s remarkable, though, is how the profiles of their experiences differ. </p>
<p>Compared with THC, delta-8 THC appears to provide similar levels of relaxation and pain relief. While it seems to cause slightly lower levels of euphoria, it also seems to produce fewer cognitive distortions such as an altered sense of time, short-term memory issues and difficulty concentrating. Participants were also much less likely to experience distressing mental states such as anxiety and paranoia. Many participants remarked how they could use delta-8 THC and still be productive, whereas they tended to use THC products recreationally, given its more potent, mind-altering effects.</p>
<p>Most participants reduced or stopped using pharmaceutical drugs, as well as THC products, because they were using delta-8 THC to treat their conditions. They considered delta-8 THC better than pharmaceutical drugs in terms of adverse side effects, addictiveness, withdrawal symptoms, effectiveness, safety, availability and cost.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=weekly&source=inline-weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>However, participants weren’t confident that their primary care doctor could integrate medical cannabis into their course of treatment. For this reason, many hadn’t disclosed their use of delta-8 THC as a substitute for pharmaceutical drugs to their doctors.</p>
<p>These patterns demonstrate the need for more research and better education for health care providers on cannabis and its derivatives; <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s42238-021-00058-0">there continues to be a disconnect</a> between those who use cannabis to self-medicate and the mainstream health care system.</p>
<h2>More to be done</h2>
<p>Our findings are just the start. We hope that they’ll spur more sophisticated research, such as double-blind randomized controlled trials that explore its treatment potential for specific conditions. And we still don’t know if some of the effects reported by our participants, both beneficial and harmful, were due to contaminants or expectations – <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/mental-health/the-power-of-the-placebo-effect">a placebo effect</a>.</p>
<p>Yet even though delta-8 THC products may provide much of the experiential and therapeutic benefits, with lower risks and fewer adverse effects, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/delta-8-thc-legal-many-states-some-want-ban-it-n1272270">some states have outright banned delta-8 THC sales</a>. Since many of those same states permit the recreational sale of cannabis and other hemp products, this seems a bit paradoxical.</p>
<p>Criminalizing substances with high consumer demand like delta-8 THC can create a black market and produce even more concerns for consumer safety, as <a href="https://cen.acs.org/biological-chemistry/natural-products/Delta-8-THC-craze-concerns/99/i31">there’s no mechanism for the regulation and protection of consumers</a>. </p>
<p>Cannabis laws remain a patchwork of policies and regulations. With more and more Americans having access to cannabis for medicinal and recreational purposes, we believe it behooves policymakers to advocate for further study of this promising alternative.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the first published survey of users of the hemp-derived compound, respondents highlight some important therapeutic effects.Daniel J. Kruger, Research Assistant Professor, University of MichiganJessica S. Kruger, Clinical Assistant Professor of Community Health and Health Behavior, University at BuffaloLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1755032022-01-24T19:11:42Z2022-01-24T19:11:42Z60% of Australians want to keep Australia Day on January 26, but those under 35 disagree<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442079/original/file-20220123-21-1ursq5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The issue of when or whether to celebrate Australia Day seems to have become stuck in a loop of <a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/should-we-change-the-date-of-australia-day-have-your-say/news-story/865d5bfd16663cfcf7c136c5097058db">fierce debate</a> without resolution. </p>
<p>There are those who want to mark January 26 as the start of modern Australia, while others view it as the start of systematic dispossession of Indigenous Australians. </p>
<p>What does the broader public think? A new national survey shows at the moment, the majority of Australians want the day left as it is. But it also suggests a groundswell for change is in the works. </p>
<h2>Our study</h2>
<p>During November 2021, we polled a representative, random sample of more than 5,000 Australians as part of the Deakin Contemporary History Survey.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fireworks go off over the Opera House, illuminated with the Aboriginal Flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442080/original/file-20220123-25-1akujgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The debate about the date has become a part of Australia Day each year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast to previous surveys, which have focused on <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8621-roy-morgan-survey-australia-day-january-25-2021-202101250620">what to call</a> Australia Day, we asked a more general question – is January 26 the right date for something called Australia Day?</p>
<p>We also asked other questions about respondents’ knowledge of and interest in Australian history. Our collective understanding of history can explain why some stories seem more important than others. For example, consider how frequently, and in how many different forms, we learn of Australian military history due to ANZAC Day. </p>
<h2>Our findings</h2>
<p>Overall, 60% of our respondents want to continue celebrating “Australia Day” on January 26.</p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/8503557/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:500px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/8503557/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/8503557" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"> </a></div>
<p>But the generational differences are significant. More than half (53%) of millennials (those born between 1986 and 2002) think we should not celebrate Australia Day on January 26.</p>
<p>By contrast, 74% of those over 75 said “disagree” or “strongly disagree” to any change with 70% of baby boomers (born 1946–65) also against change. The generation X cohort (born 1966–1985) was also decisively against change (64%), revealing a gulf between millennials and the rest of those surveyed.</p>
<p>One possible explanation for this is older people being <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-47910">more resistant</a> to change. Their familiarity with Australia Day as an established end-of-summer day for social gathering is possibly stronger than their interpretation of the day’s historical significance or a political stance on the debate. </p>
<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>These results also mirror other polls (with smaller sample sizes of about 1,200), including one by <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8621-roy-morgan-survey-australia-day-january-25-2021-202101250620">Roy Morgan</a> in January 2021 and another by <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2022/01/22/australia-day-divides-nation/">CoreData</a> released over the weekend. </p>
<p>Younger Australians are more readily accepting of marriage equality, gender diversity and other kinds of progressive social change. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tZ9qeX4gUeo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Recognising and responding to past injustices or complicated histories is familiar terrain for them. Rap group A.B. Original’s call-out of Australia Day, “January 26th,” came 16th place in Triple J’s Hottest 100 songs of 2016.</p>
<p>In 2018, the Hottest 100 <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/news/musicnews/triple-j-hottest-100-is-moving-to-a-new-date-and-heres-why/9197254">was moved</a> from the traditional January 26, after listeners expressed discomfort with holding the celebration on this date.</p>
<h2>Other differences</h2>
<p>Beyond generational differences, we also found gender and geography matter when it comes to attitudes about Australia Day. </p>
<p>Women were significantly more likely than men to want to change the date of Australia Day (43% compared to 33% men).</p>
<p>This is in keeping with <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-women-are-more-left-wing-than-men-study-reveals-95624">studies</a> showing women are <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-the-morrison-governments-response-to-sexual-assault-claims-cost-it-the-next-election-156939">more progressive</a> than men.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, about 66% of those living outside capitals cities were opposed to changing Australia Day. This reduces to 60% opposed to change in capitals. This is driven by boomers in regional areas, who are significantly more opposed than boomers in cities. </p>
<h2>More history, please</h2>
<p>Importantly for the Australia Day question, we also asked about Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history. More than 80% of those polled agreed more of this history should be taught in schools. Here there is less of a generation gap: almost 90% of millennials want more of this education, for boomers, it is nearly 80%.</p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/8503916/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:500px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width:100%!;margin-top:4px!important;text-align:right!important;"><a class="flourish-credit" href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/8503916/?utm_source=embed&utm_campaign=visualisation/8503916" target="_top"><img alt="Made with Flourish" src="https://public.flourish.studio/resources/made_with_flourish.svg"> </a></div>
<p>Women and non-binary interviewees were still more likely to agree than men, by eight percentage points, and those in cities were six points ahead of those in regions. </p>
<p>But Australians are relatively united in their enthusiasm for greater teaching of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history.</p>
<h2>Change is coming</h2>
<p>We suggest our findings indicate a slow burn to change the date, based on strong foundations. While there remain differences among Australians, the combination of younger generational desire for change to Australia Day and strong enthusiasm among the broader population for more Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history may suggest that change is not so far off.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-day-survives-despite-revealing-a-nations-rifts-and-wounds-89768">Why Australia Day survives, despite revealing a nation's rifts and wounds</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This slow pace for change probably suits the major political parties (but not so much the Greens).</p>
<p>A growing appetite for change may also indicate a discomfort with celebrating “Australia Day” at all. Luke Pearson, Gamilaroi man and founder of media organisation IndigenousX opposes simply changing the date. As he <a href="https://indigenousx.com.au/why-i-no-longer-support-changethedate/">explained</a> in 2019, there is still too little recognition of the harmful impact of colonisation and too little justice for Indigenous peoples for there to be any day to celebrate. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>So, change the country first and then we can talk about a date.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lowe receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Singleton receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Gandel Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joanna Cruickshank receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
</span></em></p>A new national survey shows the majority of Australians want the day left as it is. But it also suggests a groundswell for change is in the works.David Lowe, Chair in Contemporary History, Deakin UniversityAndrew Singleton, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Research, Deakin UniversityJoanna Cruickshank, Senior Lecturer in History, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1733212021-12-16T13:28:19Z2021-12-16T13:28:19ZSurveys of scientists show women and young academics suffered most during pandemic and may face long-term career consequences<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437659/original/file-20211214-27402-1j8amls.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C201%2C6448%2C4245&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Working from home comes with many distractions.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/mother-working-from-home-with-children-in-royalty-free-image/1273890998?adppopup=true">MoMoProductions/Digital Vision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On March 6, 2020, universities across the U.S. announced systematic <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/us/coronavirus-college-campus-closings.html">laboratory closures, social distancing policies and travel bans</a> to cope with the growing coronavirus epidemic. These actions, while prudent and necessary, had immediate negative impacts on the academic enterprise of science in the U.S. and around the world.</p>
<p>We are a team of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DGHsTEgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">researchers</a> who <a href="https://spa.asu.edu/content/lesley-michalegko">study</a> the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=CG9lGUgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">role of science</a> and technology <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=AXfiRyYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">in society</a>. We are also part of a collaborative, multi-university project, called SciOPS, that seeks to improve <a href="https://news.asu.edu/20210128-global-engagement-sciops-gives-us-look-scientists-minds">how scientists communicate with the public</a>. As the pandemic wore on, researchers began telling us about the work stoppages, data losses and other hardships they were experiencing. We felt this was important information, so we conducted two surveys to understand how the pandemic was affecting researchers.</p>
<p>The pandemic’s hardships in academia have been widespread and lasting, but our analyses revealed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00823-9">female and early career scientists faced more negative impacts</a> than other groups. These differences are likely aggravating already existing disparities and potentially altering career trajectories. The negative outcomes may last well beyond the end of the pandemic. </p>
<h2>A survey of researchers</h2>
<p>The SciOPS team conducted its first COVID-19 survey in May 2020, with a follow-up exactly a year later in May 2021. For each, we invited faculty from a random sample of 21 U.S. research universities who work in biology, engineering and biochemistry to participate in the study, and about 300 scientists responded each time. Through a series of multiple choice and open-ended questions, the surveys asked how researchers had been affected both professionally and personally by the pandemic. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437661/original/file-20211214-17-1mdremf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign in a door saying that a university building is closed indefinitely." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437661/original/file-20211214-17-1mdremf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437661/original/file-20211214-17-1mdremf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437661/original/file-20211214-17-1mdremf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437661/original/file-20211214-17-1mdremf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437661/original/file-20211214-17-1mdremf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437661/original/file-20211214-17-1mdremf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437661/original/file-20211214-17-1mdremf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Closures of schools and labs forced many scientists to work from home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakColorado/a2a120dd5a6d45048f24e863314e6e33/photo?Query=university%20closed%20virus%20sign&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=8&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>How the coronavirus disrupted science</h2>
<p>Our first survey found that disruptions at work and home negatively affected research activities for a vast majority of the scientists who responded. </p>
<p>On the <a href="https://www.sci-ops.org/surveys/covid-19-survey-ii-2021-impacts-on-scientific-research">research side</a>, 93% of respondents experienced university shutdowns and 88% faced lab work disruptions. Over 80% dealt with conference cancellations and travel restrictions. Some researchers also had to quickly adapt to financial issues, and this, along with other hurdles, saw many scientists delaying data collection, applying for timeline extensions or ending data collection early.</p>
<p>Challenges at <a href="https://www.sci-ops.org/surveys/covid-19-personal-impacts">home also affected scientists’ work</a>. Roughly 80% of respondents said they were unable to concentrate on research activities, 72% had anxiety about contracting COVID-19 and 36% had to manage unexpected child care responsibilities. </p>
<p>The May 2021 survey showed that a year later, not much had changed. Responses were nearly identical: 92% of scientists reported difficulties from university closures, 89% experienced lab work disruptions and 84% had collaboration disruptions that had interrupted their research over the past year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sci-ops.org/surveys/covid-19-survey-ii-2021-personal-impacts">Issues at home were nearly the same</a> as the year prior, too. The only major difference was that 11% percent of respondents reported coping with a family member’s illness, compared to only 3% in 2020.</p>
<p>Inevitably, these stressors all took a toll on researchers’ well-being. Nearly 60% indicated that their overall mental health and happiness had decreased because of the pandemic. This is higher than a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study that found <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6932a1">40% of the U.S. general public were facing mental health issues</a> in June 2021. As one researcher stated, reiterating the sentiments of many others in our study: “The mental impact of lockdown affected every researcher in my lab, including me. It was far more damaging than anything else we experienced and caused huge drop-offs in productivity.” </p>
<h2>Younger researchers and female researchers faced more difficulties</h2>
<p>Some scientists felt the added stress from a lack of boundaries between home and work much more acutely than others. The unexpected rises in parental child care and virtual schooling fell most heavily on female and early career faculty. </p>
<p>In our 2020 survey, 34% percent of female scientists reported disruptions due to unexpected child care responsibilities, compared to 21% of males. Early career faculty struggled more too. Roughly 43% of assistant professors indicated unexpected child care duties caused major disruptions to their research, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00823-9">30% more than their most senior colleagues</a>. In total, nearly 50% of both female respondents and assistant professors reported an inability to concentrate on research activities, while only 29% of male colleagues and 36% of senior colleagues reported the same.</p>
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<p>These unequal burdens barely changed between 2020 and 2021. If anything, issues got worse for female scientists. Many reported other unanticipated complications such as management of other family members’ mental health, divorce and limited space at home. </p>
<p>Given the extra burdens young researchers and female researchers are facing, it’s no surprise their work suffered. Other research has shown that during the pandemic, female scientists had <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0921-y">significantly less time to work on research</a>. Many were not able to meet deadlines, and so they <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.663252">submitted fewer manuscripts</a> compared to pre-pandemic levels. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, these impacts on productivity were <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.663252">even worse for women with children</a>. Research has shown that home disruptions can cascade over time and result in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0921-y">delayed promotions and tenure</a>. Even pre-COVID-19, working mothers in academia left their respective fields at much higher rates than their male colleagues, and this trend was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1513/AnnalsATS.202006-589IP">further amplified by the pandemic</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437662/original/file-20211214-27-11jx78v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A screen with many faces on it participating in a video conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437662/original/file-20211214-27-11jx78v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437662/original/file-20211214-27-11jx78v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437662/original/file-20211214-27-11jx78v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437662/original/file-20211214-27-11jx78v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437662/original/file-20211214-27-11jx78v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437662/original/file-20211214-27-11jx78v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437662/original/file-20211214-27-11jx78v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers figured out ways to work around challenges posed by the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/social-teleconference-during-covid-19-royalty-free-image/1217489268?adppopup=true">GabrielPevide/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Adapting to the new world</h2>
<p>Undoubtedly, the pandemic has had devastating effects on academic research and those who do it. But hidden among the gloom of our surveys were a few bright spots that highlight the resilience of the scientific community.</p>
<p>In our 2020 survey, 37% of scientists said that they developed new research topics to pursue, and 22% developed new collaborations. Virtual meetings proved to be a valuable transition for some. As one researcher noted, “Through regular videoconference discussions, new and long-distance collaborations have been initiated and maintained between four labs in the U.S. This would have been never envisaged prior to the Zoom era.”</p>
<p>The pandemic highlighted existing problems within science but also offered lessons to be learned. Many in academia want to avoid <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2021/02/10/without-intentional-interventions-pandemic-will-make-higher-education-less-diverse">deepening existing inequities in the scientific workforce</a>, and studies have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001100">outlined ways to do this</a>. By implementing programs such as tenure clock extensions, advocating for affordable child care and allocating funds to support early career women researchers, the scientific community could enable broader participation, capacity and production for all scientists. </p>
<p>Looking forward, we believe it is critically important for universities and research funders to proactively address the continuing challenges posed by the pandemic, particularly for female and early career faculty. With so much in flux, there is an opportunity to change and improve a system that wasn’t working for a lot of people prior to the pandemic.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=weekly&source=inline-weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173321/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many scientists stuck at home during university closures dealt with increased domestic responsibilities. But some groups had it worse than others.Lesley Michalegko, Research Project Manager of Public Policy, Arizona State UniversityEric Welch, Professor & Director, Center for Science, Technology & Environmental Policy Studies, Arizona State UniversityMary K. Feeney, Professor and Lincoln Professor of Ethics in Public Affairs, Arizona State UniversityTimothy P. Johnson, Professor Emeritus of Public Administration, University of Illinois ChicagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1727692021-11-29T13:00:33Z2021-11-29T13:00:33ZScanlon survey shows community fears about COVID can spike quickly, as governments face Omicron<p>Australians’ concern about the pandemic ebbs and flows dramatically as waves come and go, according to research that also shows that COVID has not shaken the nation’s social cohesion.</p>
<p>The Scanlon Foundation Research Institute’s 2021 Mapping Social Cohesion Report found that in July last year, 63% of respondents believed the pandemic the “most important problem facing Australia today”, while only 15% nominated the economy.</p>
<p>Monash University’s Andrew Markus, who wrote the report, said the spike reflected “an unprecedented level of concern obtained in response to an open-ended question that typically obtains a broad range of responses”. </p>
<p>But by November 2020 only 32% rated the pandemic as the most important problem, with 24% saying the economy.</p>
<p>Then in the July 2021 survey, with adverse publicity about the vaccine rollout and the third wave starting, the rating had jumped to 59%, and the economy was down to 9%. </p>
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<p>This rollercoaster of public concern is especially relevant given the emergence of the new Omicron strain, about which information remains sparse. It shows how quickly developments in the pandemic can change people’s priorities. </p>
<p>With an election looming in the first half of next year, the Scanlon numbers highlight that what will be to the forefront of the public’s mind is unpredictable months out – partly dependent on the course of the pandemic abroad, and hence in Australia.</p>
<p>The Scanlon survey, which has been running since 2007, covered 3572 people in 2021 and asked more than 110 questions. It also included qualitative research.</p>
<p>As has been reflected in other research, the survey found that trust in government, which had been low, jumped after the pandemic hit but has started to fall. Trust in the federal government to do the right thing for Australians all or most of the time was 44% in 2021. This was 10 points down on July 2020, but remained well above the long term average.</p>
<p>Approval of the federal government’s response was 52% this year, down from 85% last year.</p>
<p>Despite the Morrison government’s periodic condemnations of prolonged harsh interstate border closures, the public were supportive.</p>
<p>“The state governments that were able to halt virus transmission and avoid lengthy lockdowns continued to be rated very highly with approval of the Western Australian and South Australian government close to 90%, while New South Wales, which also had enjoyed a very high level of approval in 2020, saw approval fall to 59%,” the report says.</p>
<p>“While there were protests against government lockdowns which gained much media attention, the survey finds that approval of lockdowns won close to 90% endorsement.”</p>
<p>In July this year 87% across the nation viewed lockdown restrictions as definitely or probably required. In the states most affected, the numbers were 91% in NSW and 85% in Victoria.</p>
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<p>Despite the difficult times, Australians were remarkably optimistic about the future: 71% were optimistic in 2021, actually up from the pre-COVID 2019 figure of 63%.</p>
<p>Reflecting the impact of the high level of government financial help during the crisis, “the surprising finding is that in 2020 and 2021 more positive responses were obtained for a number of financial questions when compared with the previous two years”.</p>
<p>For example, 71% were satisfied with their present financial situation in July this year.</p>
<p>One dramatic change in the survey was a major increase in people’s perception of how big a problem racism is.</p>
<p>Since November last year there has been a 20 point rise in the proportion saying racism was a very big or big problem, to 60%.</p>
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<p>The report says such a rise in response to a general question was almost unprecedented in the Scanlon surveys, and its timing was difficult to explain. There was no indication of an increase in the proportion of respondents with xenophobic and racist views, it says.</p>
<p>But in the latest survey, as in past Scanlon surveys over the years, the highest level of discrimination was reported by Australians of non-English speaking backgrounds.</p>
<p>Asked whether they had experienced discrimination in the last year because of their colour, ethnic origin or religion, 11% of the Australian born said they had, as did 12% of those born overseas in an English speaking country.</p>
<p>This compared to 34% of those born overseas in a non-English speaking country, including 38% of those born in China, Hong Kong or Taiwan, and 40% of all respondents born in Asia.</p>
<p>The qualitative research, undertaken by Trish Prentice, senior researcher at the Scanlon Foundation Research Institute, involved 66 interviews across all mainland states, with a focus on areas with relatively high cultural and religious diversity.</p>
<p>“The interviews indicate social cohesion has not been broken by the pandemic. There was no evidence of widespread tensions in communities, of conflict or the ongoing targeting of members of certain cultural communities,” the report says.</p>
<p>But the interviews brought out differences in the experiences and ability to cope between different cohorts in the community.</p>
<p>Women felt particular impacts (for example in general they had greater responsibility for home schooling) and children were affected by reduced social contact, which had implications for their development.</p>
<p>Parents with poor English had barriers helping their children, and those with poor literacy felt helpless in dealing with home schooling. Refugees and asylum seekers experienced a greater psychological impact.</p>
<p>The report constructs a “cohesion index” which combines subjective and objective indicators to build a monitor of cohesion. The indicators used were income, employment, health, education and community participation. Indicators were tracked over the decade 2008-18. Using 2007-8 as a benchmark of 100, there had been a small decline of six points in the decade.</p>
<p>Despite the strong social cohesion, the report points to potential threats to it, including the substantial number of young people who do not make a successful transition from school to further education, training or employment.</p>
<p>The research for the report was funded by the Scanlon Foundation, supplemented by the federal government. The Scanlon Foundation was established in 2001, aiming to enhance and foster social cohesion in Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172769/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Scanlon Foundation Research Institute’s 2021 Mapping Social Cohesion Report found that while concern about the pandemic ebbs and flows, COVID has not shaken the nation’s social cohesion.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1696002021-10-28T12:35:20Z2021-10-28T12:35:20ZNew research suggests cat and dog ‘moms’ and ‘dads’ really are parenting their pets – here’s the evolutionary explanation why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428894/original/file-20211027-25-175dg5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1036%2C201%2C5341%2C4174&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pet parenting can provide love and companionship to both human and animal.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/senior-black-woman-patting-the-family-dog-royalty-free-image/1190823862">Willie B. Thomas/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428877/original/file-20211027-19-iseyr8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="old pug dog in a stroller and harness" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428877/original/file-20211027-19-iseyr8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428877/original/file-20211027-19-iseyr8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=887&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428877/original/file-20211027-19-iseyr8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=887&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428877/original/file-20211027-19-iseyr8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=887&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428877/original/file-20211027-19-iseyr8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1114&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428877/original/file-20211027-19-iseyr8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1114&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428877/original/file-20211027-19-iseyr8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1114&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A pup out for a stroll, without paws touching the ground.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shelly Volsche</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Have you noticed more cats riding in strollers lately? Or bumper stickers that read, “I love my granddogs”? You’re not imagining it. More people are investing serious <a href="https://www.americanpetproducts.org/press_industrytrends.asp">time, money and attention in their pets</a>.</p>
<p>It looks an awful lot like parenting, but of pets, not people.</p>
<p>Can this kind of caregiving toward animals really be considered parenting? Or is something else going on here?</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8JxdDd8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I’m an anthropologist</a> who studies human-animal interactions, a field known as anthrozoology. I want to better understand the behavior of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/14747049211038297">pet parenting by people from the perspective of evolutionary science</a>. After all, cultural norms and evolutionary biology both suggest people should focus on raising their own children, not animals of a completely different species.</p>
<h2>More child-free people, more pet parents</h2>
<p>The current moment is unique in human history. Many societies, including the U.S., are experiencing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1420441111">major changes in how people live, work and socialize</a>. Fertility rates are low, and people have more flexibility in how they choose to live their lives. These factors can lead people to further their education and value <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0163-2396(08)30011-8">defining oneself as an individual</a> over family obligations. With basics taken care of, people can focus on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/h0054346">higher order psychological needs</a> like feelings of achievement and a sense of purpose.</p>
<p>The scene is set for people to actively choose to focus on pets instead of children.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08927936.2018.1455470">earlier research</a>, I interviewed 28 self-identified <a href="https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/child-free">child-free</a> pet owners to better understand how they relate to their animals. These individuals pointedly shared that they had actively chosen cats and dogs instead of children. In many cases, their use of parent-child relational terms – calling themselves a pet’s “mom” for instance – was simply shorthand.</p>
<p>They emphasized fulfilling the species-specific needs of their dogs and cats. For example, they might fulfill the animal’s need to forage by feeding meals using a <a href="https://nymag.com/strategist/article/best-food-puzzles-for-cats-and-dogs-according-to-vets.html">food puzzle</a>, while most children are fed at the table. These pet owners acknowledged differences in the nutrition, socialization and learning needs of animals versus children. They were not unthinkingly replacing human children with “fur babies” by treating them like small, furry humans.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428895/original/file-20211027-25-gc1jv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="woman with party hat with dog" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428895/original/file-20211027-25-gc1jv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428895/original/file-20211027-25-gc1jv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428895/original/file-20211027-25-gc1jv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428895/original/file-20211027-25-gc1jv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428895/original/file-20211027-25-gc1jv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428895/original/file-20211027-25-gc1jv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428895/original/file-20211027-25-gc1jv5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pet parents might celebrate their dog’s big day – but with a doggy treat and not chocolate cake.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/girl-and-her-dog-celebrating-dogs-first-birthday-royalty-free-image/1138504716">fotostorm/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Other researchers find similar connections, showing that child-free pet owners <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/socf.12351">perceive their companions as emotional, thinking individuals</a>. This way of understanding the mind of the animal helps lead to the development of a parent identity toward companion animals. In other cases, uncertain individuals find their need to nurture sufficiently fulfilled by caring for pets, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/soin.12163">cementing their fertility decisions to remain child-free</a>.</p>
<h2>Nurturing others is part of being human</h2>
<p>Yet, these findings still do not answer this question: Are people who choose pets over children truly parenting their pets? To answer, I turned to the evolution of parenting and caregiving.</p>
<p>Evolutionary anthropologist Sarah Hrdy wrote in 2009 that <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674060326&content=reviews">humans are cooperative breeders</a>. This means it is literally in our DNA and our ancestral history to help care for offspring who are not our own. Anthropologists and biologists call this trait <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/alloparent">alloparenting</a>. It is an evolutionary adaptation that helped human beings who cooperatively raised children survive. For early humans, this ancient environment was likely made up of small, foraging societies in which some people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12110-008-9043-3">exchanged child care for food and other resources</a>.</p>
<p>I propose that it is this evolutionary history that explains pet parenting. If people evolved to alloparent, and our environment is now making caring for children more difficult or less appealing to some, it makes sense for people to alloparent other species entering their homes. Alloparenting companion animals can offer a way to fulfill the evolved need to nurture while reducing the investment of time, money and emotional energy compared to raising children.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428898/original/file-20211027-25073-17nbg9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="two kids and dog bathing in tub" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428898/original/file-20211027-25073-17nbg9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428898/original/file-20211027-25073-17nbg9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428898/original/file-20211027-25073-17nbg9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428898/original/file-20211027-25073-17nbg9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428898/original/file-20211027-25073-17nbg9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428898/original/file-20211027-25073-17nbg9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428898/original/file-20211027-25073-17nbg9g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Do people relate to animals differently in families with children?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/two-brothers-take-a-bath-with-the-dog-royalty-free-image/1124427115">Mayte Torres/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Untangling differences in caring for pets</h2>
<p>To further understand this phenomenon of child-free adults parenting pets, I launched an online survey via social media, seeking responses from U.S.-based dog and cat owners over the age of 18. The survey included questions about attachment and caregiving behaviors using the <a href="https://doi.org/10.2752/089279392787011395">Lexington Attachment to Pets Scale</a>. It also asked a series of questions I developed to probe specific human caretaking behaviors oriented toward pets – things like feeding, bathing and training – as well as how much autonomy companion animals had in the home.</p>
<p>The final sample of 917 respondents included 620 parents, 254 nonparents and 43 people who were undecided or did not answer. Most of the respondents were also married or in a domestic partnership for over one year (57%), between the ages of 25 and 60 (72%) and had at least a bachelor’s degree (77%). They were also mostly women (85%) and heterosexual (85%), a <a href="https://doi.org/10.2752/089279307780216687">common situation in human-animal interactions research</a>.</p>
<p>Both parents and nonparents reported high amounts of training and play with their pets. This finding makes sense given that all pet owners need to help their dogs and cats learn how to navigate a human world. Survey respondents reported socializing, training and enrichment, including play, for their animals.</p>
<p>Nonparents were more likely to be the one providing general care for the animal. This finding also makes sense since parents often adopt or purchase companion animals as a way to <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/R/bo19416930.html">help their children</a> learn responsibility and to care for others. Child-free animal owners invest time, money and emotional energy directly in their pets.</p>
<p>Nonparents reported higher rates of general attachment to their animals. They more frequently viewed their pets as individuals. Nonparents were also more likely to use family terms such as “parent,” “child,” “kids” and “guardians” when referring to their relationships with their pet.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428899/original/file-20211027-19-bxtxen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="woman on couch petting cat" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428899/original/file-20211027-19-bxtxen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/428899/original/file-20211027-19-bxtxen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428899/original/file-20211027-19-bxtxen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428899/original/file-20211027-19-bxtxen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428899/original/file-20211027-19-bxtxen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428899/original/file-20211027-19-bxtxen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/428899/original/file-20211027-19-bxtxen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Caring for another being can be fulfilling and rewarding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/its-just-me-and-you-today-kitty-royalty-free-image/1187591570">Delmaine Donson/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is this difference, combined with the evidence from my earlier research that these individuals address the species-specific needs of the dogs and cats in their care, that suggests pet parenting is, truly, parenting pets. Though the details may look quite different – attending training classes instead of school functions, or providing smell walks for dogs instead of coloring books for children – both practices fulfill the same evolved function. Whether child or pet, people are meeting the same evolved need to care for, teach and love a sentient other.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I continue to collect data from all over the world about how people live with animals. For now, this study provides evidence that, perhaps rather than being evolved to parent, humans are evolved to nurture. And as a result, who and when we parent is much more flexible than you might initially believe.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shelly Volsche does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Human beings evolved to nurture – and that drive can extend to children who aren’t your own and even to members of other species.Shelly Volsche, Clinical Assistant Professor of Anthropology, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1678472021-09-14T14:00:46Z2021-09-14T14:00:46ZPew’s new global survey of climate change attitudes finds promising trends but deep divides<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420941/original/file-20210913-20-6h80p0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C222%2C1986%2C1329&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Global views on climate change are shifting, but there is still a strong progressive-conservative divide.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/exxR_KbIuPQ">Stephen Leonardi/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People’s views about climate change, from how worried they are about it affecting them to how willing they are to do something about it, have shifted in developed countries around the world in recent years, a new survey by the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/">Pew Research Center</a> finds.</p>
<p>The study <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/09/14/in-response-to-climate-change-citizens-in-advanced-economies-are-willing-to-alter-how-they-live-and-work/">polled more than 16,000 adults</a> in 17 countries considered to be advanced economies. Many of these countries have been large contributors to climate change and will be expected to lead the way in fixing it.</p>
<p>In general, the survey found that a majority of people are concerned about global climate change and are willing to make lifestyle changes to reduce its effects. </p>
<p>However, underneath this broad pattern lie more complicated trends, such as doubt that the international community can effectively reduce climate change and deep ideological divides that can hinder the transition to cleaner energy and a climate-friendly world. The survey also reveals an important disconnect between people’s attitudes and the enormity of the challenge climate change poses.</p>
<p>Here’s what stood out to us as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=K-JoBzUAAAAJ&hl=en">professionals</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eb0BEfkAAAAJ&hl=en">who study the public’s response</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=IcM8VEQAAAAJ&hl=en">to climate change</a>.</p>
<h2>Strong concern and willingness to take action</h2>
<p>In all the countries surveyed in early 2021 except Sweden, between 60% and 90% of the citizens reported feeling somewhat or very concerned about the harm they would personally face from climate change. While there was a clear increase in concern in several countries between 2015, when Pew conducted the same survey, and 2021, this number did not change significantly in the U.S.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421000/original/file-20210914-21-1cdkdyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart of responses to question on concern about climate change harming the people surveyed personally" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421000/original/file-20210914-21-1cdkdyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421000/original/file-20210914-21-1cdkdyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421000/original/file-20210914-21-1cdkdyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421000/original/file-20210914-21-1cdkdyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421000/original/file-20210914-21-1cdkdyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421000/original/file-20210914-21-1cdkdyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421000/original/file-20210914-21-1cdkdyc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>Similarly, in all countries except Japan, at least 7 out of 10 people said they are willing to make some or a lot of changes in how they live and work to help address global climate change.</p>
<p>Across most countries, young people were much more likely than older generations to report higher levels of both concern about climate change and willingness to change their behaviors. </p>
<h2>Perceptions about government responses</h2>
<p>Clearly, on a global level, people are highly concerned about this existential threat and are willing to change their everyday behaviors to mitigate its impacts. However, focusing on changing individual behaviors alone will not stop global warming.</p>
<p>In the U.S., for example, about <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/where-greenhouse-gases-come-from.php">74% of greenhouse gas emissions are from fossil fuel combustion</a>. People can switch to driving electric vehicles or taking electric buses and trains, but those still need power. To pressure utilities to shift to renewable energy requires <a href="https://environment.yale.edu/news/article/building-public-and-political-will-for-climate-change-action">policy-level changes, both domestically and internationally</a>.</p>
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<p>When we look at people’s attitudes regarding how their own country is handling climate change and how effective international actions would be, the results painted a more complex picture. </p>
<p>On average, most people evaluated their own government’s handling of climate change as “somewhat good,” with the highest approval numbers in Sweden, the United Kingdom, Singapore and New Zealand. However, data shows that such positive evaluations are not actually warranted. The <a href="https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020">2020 U.N. Emissions Gap Report</a> found that greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise. Many countries, including the U.S., are projected to miss their target commitments to reduce emissions by 2030; and even if all countries achieve their targets, annual emissions need to be reduced much further to reach the goals set by the Paris climate agreement.</p>
<p>When it comes to confidence in international actions to address climate change, the survey respondents were more skeptical overall. Although the majority of people in Germany, the Netherlands, South Korea and Singapore felt confident that the international community can significantly reduce climate change, most respondents in the rest of the countries surveyed did not. France and Sweden had the lowest levels of confidence with more than 6 in 10 people being unconvinced.</p>
<p>Together, these results suggest that people generally believe climate change to be a problem that can be solved by individual people and governments. Most people say they are willing to change their lifestyles, but they may not have an accurate perception of the scale of actions needed to effectively address global climate change. Overall, people may be overly optimistic about their own country’s capability and commitment to reduce emissions and fight climate change, and at the same time, underestimate the value and effectiveness of international actions.</p>
<p>These perceptions may reflect the fact that <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-focusing-on-how-individuals-can-help-is-very-convenient-for-corporations-108546">the conversation surrounding climate change</a> so far has been dominated by calls to change individual behaviors instead of emphasizing the necessity of collective and policy-level actions. Addressing these gaps is an important goal for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1075547008328969">people who are working in climate communication</a> and trying to increase public support for stronger domestic policies and international collaborations.</p>
<h2>Deep ideological divide in climate attitudes</h2>
<p>As with most surveys about climate change attitudes, the new Pew report reveals a deep ideological divide in several countries.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Perhaps not surprisingly, the U.S. leads in ideological differences for all but one question. In the U.S., 87% of liberals are somewhat or very concerned about the personal harms from climate change, compared to only 28% of conservatives – a stark 59-point difference. This difference persists for willingness to change one’s lifestyle (49-point difference), evaluation of government’s handling of climate change (41-point difference), and perceived economic impacts of international actions (41-point difference).</p>
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<p>And the U.S. is not alone; large ideological differences were also found in Canada, Australia and the Netherlands. In fact, only Australians were more divided than Americans on how their government is handling the climate crisis.</p>
<p>This ideological divide is not new, but the size of the gap between people on the two ends of the ideological spectrum is astounding. The differences lie not only in how to handle the issue or who should be responsible but also in the scope and severity of climate change in the first place. Such massive, entrenched differences in public understanding and acceptance of the scientific facts regarding climate change will present significant challenges in enacting much-needed policy changes.</p>
<p>Better understanding of the cultural, political and media dynamics that shape those differences might reveal helpful insights that could ease the path toward progress in slowing climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ed Maibach receives funding from the National Science Foundation, NASA and Energy Foundation. He is affiliated with the Global Climate and Health Alliance. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Kotcher has received funding from the World Health Organization. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate T. Luong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pew asked people in 17 countries how they felt about climate change. The survey found some optimism but also deep ideological divides, particularly in the United States.Kate T. Luong, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, George Mason UniversityEd Maibach, Director of Center for Climate Communication, George Mason UniversityJohn Kotcher, Assistant Professor of Communications, George Mason UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.