tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/the-view-from-32703/articlesThe view from ... – The Conversation2016-11-07T07:40:58Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/678682016-11-07T07:40:58Z2016-11-07T07:40:58ZUncertainty on security and trade worry allies in Asia as US election approaches<p><em>This article is part of The Conversation Global’s ‘The View From …’ series, explaining how governments and citizens in key countries and regions worldwide view the US presidential election. Today, we look at how nations in East Asia see the election and what they expect from the results</em>. </p>
<p>The impending US presidential election is causing some consternation among nations in East Asia that have been traditional allies of the country. Both security and economic interests, in the guise of the 12-member <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32498715">Trans-Pacific Partnership</a> (TPP) – seven of which hail from the Asia-Pacific – are causing anxiety, particularly because of the kinds of statements made by Republican candidate Donald Trump on the campaign trail.</p>
<p>Some middle and small powers, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/thailands-crackdown-on-chinese-dissidents-reinforces-the-coalition-of-authoritarians-66634">Thailand</a> and <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/lessons-from-obamas-southeast-asia-trip/">Malaysia</a>, had already shifted their focus – if not their political support – to China. It remains to be seen if the incoming president will trigger a diplomatic shift for the whole region.</p>
<h2>Facing uncertainty</h2>
<p>The US has cultivated friendships in Asia since the end of the second world war. As a major international power, it has offered the region public goods, such as <a href="http://fpc.state.gov/212107.htm">security</a> and the shelter of its <a href="http://nwp.ilpi.org/?p=1221">nuclear umbrella</a>, as well as facilitating <a href="http://www.cfr.org/trade/future-us-trade-policy/p36422">market economy and free trade</a>. </p>
<p>Many American allies such as Australia, Japan, South Korea and Singapore, would be happy to see Hillary Clinton become the next American president, in part because she was responsible for the Barack Obama administration’s “<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/04/what-exactly-does-it-mean-that-the-us-is-pivoting-to-asia/274936/">pivot to Asia</a>” strategy when she was the secretary of state. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/obama-administrations-pivot-asia">policy saw the US aiming to shift</a> its strategic focus and necessary military capability back to Asia, and strengthen American alliances in the region. American <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/as-us-marines-arrive-in-darwin-australia-must-consider-its-strategic-position-20160422-goco5s.html">deployment of marine forces in Darwin</a> in northern Australia is one the best examples of the policy in action. </p>
<p>Since China has established an <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1960954/beijing-ready-impose-air-defence-identification-zone-south-china-sea">air defence identification zone</a> in the East China Sea (also <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/13/china-declares-right-to-set-up-air-defence-zone-in-south-china-s/">possible in the South China Sea</a> at some stage), and the reclaimed the reefs in the South China Sea, it’s likely Clinton will stick to the policy.</p>
<p>Donald Trump’s proposed policy towards Asia, on the other hand, is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/31/clinton-plans-to-slam-trump-as-a-dangerous-isolationist-in-american-legion-speech/">isolationist</a> in that he does not seem to want the United States to provide security for other countries any more, or to enter further free trade agreements. </p>
<p>Perhaps Trump’s calculation reflects the rational businessman he claims to be, focusing on how to minimise costs and maximise profits. He has criticised Japan and South Korea as <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-japan-idUSKCN0WM017">free riders</a> when it comes to regional security, and has even suggested these two countries obtain <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald-trump-foreign-policy.html?_r=0">nuclear weapons</a> themselves. </p>
<p>Any withdrawal of the US security guarantee would be a nightmare for these and other American allies in the region, just as it would be <a href="https://theconversation.com/european-leaders-would-see-a-donald-trump-victory-as-total-calamity-67619">for the nation’s European allies</a>. </p>
<h2>Worried allies</h2>
<p>Japan has been doing what it can to ensure its alliance with the US continues. In April, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared: “no matter who will be the next president, the Japan-US alliance is <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/japan-pm-shinzo-abe-defends-military-alliance-with-the-us-in-rebuff-to-donald-trump">the cornerstone of Japan’s diplomacy</a>”.</p>
<p>Abe met with Clinton in September to lobby for <a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/09/20/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-clinton-meet-ny-restate-split-tpp-stances-weigh-pyongyang-threat/#.WBoQ3S197IV">continuing US military presence</a> in the region, and implementing the TPP. Hitoshi Tanaka, a former Japanese deputy minister for foreign affairs has <a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/10/08/national/politics-diplomacy/unknown-quantity-outcome-presidential-election-november-affect-japan-u-s-relations/#.WBoRCC197IV">criticised Trump’s statements</a>, which Tanaka says can undermine the American role in the region, shake the confidence of its allies and weaken the credibility of its economic leadership.</p>
<p>The uncertainty created by the presidential election <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/what-it-would-mean-for-australia-if-donald-trump-became-president-of-the-united-states-2016-3">also provides cause for concern in Australia</a>. In terms of values and preferences in foreign policy, Australia and the United States have human rights, democracy and free trade in common. But China has become an important trading partner for Australia because of its hunger for natural resources, such as <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2016/us-election-impact-australia/alliances/">coal, iron ore and natural gas</a>.</p>
<p>If Trump becomes the US president, Australia will face an immediate dilemma – should Canberra strengthen its military capability in case of a possible American retreat or bandwagon with China?</p>
<p>Similar concerns also assail South Korea. Seoul has just <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-korea-thaad-north-korea-china/">finalised a site</a> for implementing the Terminal High Attitude Area Defence (THAAD), which is part of a defence system offered by the United States to intercept missile and nuclear attacks from <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-usa-thaad-idUSKCN0ZO084">North Korea</a>. Would it be rolled back if Trump enters the White House? </p>
<p>South Korea is itself now considering whether it is, in fact, better to develop <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-koreas-march-toward-a-strike-first-nuclear-policy-1477414963">nuclear weapons</a>, in case American foreign policy can no longer be expected to remain stable and predictable. </p>
<p>Taiwan, meanwhile, is in a rather embarrassing situation in relation to the diplomatic competition between China and the United States in that it’s neither a member of <a href="http://www.scmp.com/topics/asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-aiib">Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank</a> (AIIB), which is dominated and administered by China, nor in the TPP. </p>
<p><a href="http://udn.com/news/story/1/1986777%20and%20http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20161030000056-260203">Its mass media</a> has expressed concerns that if Trump wins, he may disrupt the supportive US policy towards Taiwan.</p>
<h2>And then there’s trade</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-tpp-idUSKCN0VD08S">signed but not yet ratified</a> free trade agreement known as the TPP involves the US, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru. For the deal to take effect, it has to be ratified by February 2018.</p>
<p>Clinton has said, “<a href="http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Hillary_Clinton_Free_Trade.htm">I am not in favor of what I have learned</a>” about the TPP and is likely to <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/27/politics/tpp-what-you-need-to-know/">re-examine its provisions if elected</a>. But <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jun/28/donald-trump-vows-to-cancel-trans-pacific-partners/">Trump has decisively spoken against it</a> for threatening American jobs.</p>
<p>Singapore has been outspoken about the need to get the deal through. In speech at <a href="http://www.pmo.gov.sg/mediacentre/pm-lee-hsien-loong-us-chamber-commerceus-asean-business-council">the American Chamber of Commerce and US-ASEAN Business Council in August</a>, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said ratifying the agreement “will be a clear statement of your commitment to and your confidence in our region.”</p>
<p>Lee reiterated the message again in an interview with Time in late October, saying the United States would lose its “<a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/pm-lee-warns-of-harm-to-us-standing-if-tpp-isnt-ratified">credibility as an ally and as a deterrent</a>” if the next president just lets the TPP go.</p>
<h2>Waning influence</h2>
<p>American influence in Asia has been weakened with the rise of Chinese economic capabilities. The best evidence for this is <a href="http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2041077/four-reasons-duterte-will-have-change-tune-china-and-us">the ostensible change in Philippine foreign policy</a>. </p>
<p>President Rodrigo Duterte may have set aside territorial claims in the South China Sea (at least temporarily), in return for a Chinese investment and economic package, but at least Filippino fishers are now back in the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/29/world/asia/south-china-sea-scarborough-shoal.html?_r=0">Scarborough Shoal</a>.</p>
<p>Duterte’s diplomatic shift from the United States to China can be regarded as a pragmatic calculation. But statements, such as “<a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/25/asia/duterte-us-comments/">I am no American puppet…do not make us your dogs</a>” go far beyond concerns about who the next US president will be. Duterte’s emphasis is on nationalism and a sense of <a href="https://theconversation.com/he-may-have-insulted-obama-but-duterte-held-up-a-long-hidden-looking-glass-to-the-us-65085">rebellion against American colonial rule</a> in the Philippines.</p>
<p>Other middle and small powers within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have adopted a <a href="http://www.theasanforum.org/southeast-asian-strategies-toward-the-great-powers-still-hedging-after-all-these-years/">hedging policy</a> for a while. They buffer themselves by being on the side of the United States for security protection, while tending to the side of China for economic benefits.</p>
<p>Most of them – Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-pleads-with-vietnam-malaysia-and-brunei-to-resolve-south-china-sea-issues-bilaterally/articleshow/54312000.cms">Vietnam</a> and <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-china-keep-low-profile-on-1403622597">Malaysia</a> – kept a low profile during the dispute in the South China Sea, even though the latter two have claims there. </p>
<p>Just two weeks ago, the <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/10/3-chinese-navy-ships-visit-vietnams-cam-ranh-bay/">Chinese navy arrived and stayed</a> in Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay. This was formerly a military port for the United States during the Vietnam War. And for the Soviet Union then Russia from 1979 to 2002. In late 2013, <a href="https://sputniknews.com/military/201605191039907645-russia-return-vietnam-military-base-analysis/">Russia and Vietnam signed an agreement</a> for repair and maintenance of submarines there. </p>
<p>Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak also went to Beijing recently to discuss various business deals, including a <a href="http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/10/184147/malaysia-buy-navy-vessels-china-blow-us">military bid on patrol ships</a> that can fire missiles. </p>
<p>More than any other ASEAN country, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/domino-theory-or-hedging-after-the-philippines-now-malaysia-embraces-china/2016/10/31/d30984ea-9f63-11e6-b74c-603fd6bbc17f_story.html">Vietnam and Malaysia</a> seem to have made their choice between China and the United States. No matter who is the next American president, given their geographical proximity and increasing economic interdependence with China, they seem to be edging closer to their large neighbour.</p>
<p>Trump has <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-charges-china-with-yuan-manipulationagain-1474943701">expressed considerable hostility to China</a>, but Clinton isn’t likely to become a great friend to Beijing either. In international relations, great power competition rarely has room for trust or promises, and the American president must try to contain or prevent the rise of China. </p>
<p>While the nature of great power relations between China and the United States seem quite stable, what’s caught attention in China is the <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-vs-clinton-battle-turning-heads-china-n677901">“chaotic” nature of US democratic system</a> itself. <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/china-donald-trump-gop-candidate-s-rise-big-news-n567726">Trump’s overblown statements</a> about the Chinese currency and terms of trade have also made headlines, although he has turned down the attacks in recent months.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-or-clinton-what-india-really-wants-from-the-us-election-67340">India is a natural ally to the United States</a> because the countries have converging values, norms and interests, such as democracy and regional stability. </p>
<p>Last but not least, we should not skip North Korea. An editorial in DPRK Today regards Trump as a <a href="https://www.nknews.org/2016/05/north-korean-editorial-supports-donald-trump/">“wise politician” and “far-sighted presidential candidate”</a>. Perhaps Kim Jong-Un is looking for a diplomatic breakthrough, but it is more likely that he doesn’t understand the American presidential election – rhetorical statements from a presidential candidate will not, after all, automatically translate into future policy.</p>
<p>The US presidential election matters most to American allies in Asia in terms of continuous commitment and credibility. But it won’t have much of an impact on the middle and small powers who have increasingly hedged on the side of China for economic gain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67868/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hak-yin Li does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Security and economic interests, in the guise of the 12-member Trans-Pacific Partnership (seven of which hail from the Asia-Pacific), are causing anxiety among US friends and allies.Hak-yin Li, Lecturer in International Relations, Chinese University of Hong KongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/679662016-11-03T07:35:35Z2016-11-03T07:35:35ZTo Venezuelans deep in crisis, the US election seems irrelevant (except for the echoes of Chavez)<p><em>This piece is part of The Conversation Global’s ‘The View From …’ series, explaining how governments and citizens in key countries worldwide view the US election. Today, Miguel Angel Latouche explains why Venezuela – immersed in its own political battles – isn’t paying much attention to Clinton v Trump</em>.</p>
<p>As they do on so many things in Venezuela today, citizens have conflicting opinions on the United States. For some, the US is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/07/02/i-escaped-veneuzela-for-the-u-s-heres-my-story/?utm_term=.f429db1cc872">melting pot of freedom</a>, a representation of everything good to which one could aspire. For others, it’s a militaristic nation that for centuries has imposed an <a href="http://www.aporrea.org/internacionales/a236351.htm">imperial vision</a> on Latin America, aka “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Americas-Backyard-United-America-Doctrine/dp/184813214X">America’s backyard</a>”. </p>
<p>Both perspectives are, of course, exaggerated. In the end, we get closest to the truth when we examine our northern neighbour with a critical but non-ideological perspective, without our own Venezuelan dreams and fears getting tied up in it. </p>
<h2>Living between love and hate</h2>
<p>This mix of love and hate has become the default stance in this <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/opinion/chavismo-full-circle.html?ref=americas&_r=0">extremely polarised</a>, ideological country. Venezuela is confronting a roiling <a href="http://efectococuyo.com/opinion/un-pais-imaginario">social, political and economic conflict</a> that touches every aspect of our lives, and the truth is many Venezuelans today are just <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/venezuela-crisis-rampant-shortages-leave-country-shambles/story?id=40261315">fighting to survive</a>.</p>
<p>In seeking to protect ourselves, to save our own lives, we have embraced <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/corporatism">corporatism</a> – that is, the logic of constituting a political corpus that functions around private interests and reduced social good. We live between distrust and fear. </p>
<p>It’s basically inevitable at this point that we view everything – from how we live our lives to what we hope for the future and how we assess political leadership – through a partisan lens. </p>
<h2>International politics take a back seat</h2>
<p>In a context of domestic crisis, international news fades away. When you’re worried there’s no medicine at the pharmacy, it’s harder to care about a hole in the ozone layer. When you must resort to the black market to buy canned corn, toothpaste, or soap, you can’t worry about North Korea’s nuclear testing or the fate of Tierra del Fuego’s penguins. The same goes for the US presidential elections.</p>
<p>It’s not that we’re not talking about politics in Venezuela, because we are – a lot. It’s just that the dire national situation monopolises the conversation. How are we doing as a country? What’s the latest on the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/10/31/world/americas/ap-lt-venezuela-political-crisis.html?ref=americas">conflict</a> between the National Assembly and the Executive? Is this an <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-17/brazil-pressures-authoritarian-venezuela-to-hold-referendum">authoritarian</a> regime? </p>
<p>Media coverage in the country is <a href="http://elpitazo.com/ultimas-noticias/la-censura-bajo-y-la-autocensura-subio-segun-estudio-de-ipys-venezuela/">quite limited and subject to self-censorship</a>. Restricted access to newsprint is <a href="https://www.ifex.org/venezuela/2016/03/21/el_carabobeno/es/">killing off dailies</a>, and air rights concessions are inequitably distributed. What news there is, then, centres on national issues, often presenting dichotomous views. </p>
<p>When the media does cover international affairs, it focuses on those that hold the most interest for Venezuela’s government. So we see a lot of coverage of <a href="https://theconversation.com/colombias-peace-plebiscite-the-case-for-yes-and-the-case-for-no-66325">Colombia’s peace process</a>, for example, because Venezuela is acting as mediator. But we read much less about the US, from which we’ve politically <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/10/world/americas/10prexy.html">distanced ourselves</a>. </p>
<p>Without meaningful media coverage of the US election, we don’t really know what Venezuelans think of the candidates. But based on conversation, my impression is that Hillary is perceived as a boring person, lacking character and the capacity to lead, while Trump is seen as a lout who isn’t afraid to say what he thinks. People think he’s a strongman type, capable of launching the postmodern rendition of Teddy Roosevelt’s <em>politica del garrote</em> – Big Stick politics. </p>
<h2>A world power, weakened</h2>
<p>These are <a href="http://www.biografiasyvidas.com/biografia/b/bauman.htm">liquid times</a>, as the Polish sociologist Zygmunt Bauman tells us, and one can understand how true that statement is when a world power like the US has shifted from world domination to debates on the <a href="https://www.ucm.es/data/cont/docs/835-2014-05-17-vol8_2006_n3.pdf">global governance</a> on issues related to climate change, drug trafficking, and poverty. </p>
<p>Even from here, it’s clear that the US has changed. The presidential debate in the United States seems to be swinging between two extremes, from the excesses of Hillary Clinton to those of Donald Trump. There’s the mudslinging over the candidates’ personal affairs, and how they’re struggling to convey a message of hope in this complex moment for the world. </p>
<p>If anything about it is getting Venezuelan attention right now, it’s just how <a href="http://globovision.com/article/triste-final-de-campana-electoral-en-los-estados-unidos">sad</a> the US electoral season has been. </p>
<p>We can tell this year is far removed from traditional campaign dynamics. For example, for the first time in the US, there is a candidate who’s truly anti-party (though he is running under the banner of a party), who doesn’t respond to the establishment. <a href="http://www.letraslibres.com/mexico/politica/trump-y-el-colapso-cultural">That’s noteworthy</a>, because Venezuelans are accustomed to American politicians who show commitment to the Washington way. </p>
<p>We’re also interested by the lack of ideas in this presidential race. Clinton and Trump are playing with emotions. This frivolisation of politics in one of the world’s great powers indicates an important and symbolic weakening of democracy, both in the US and worldwide.</p>
<h2>Echoes of a Latin American strongman</h2>
<p>But the worst thing about this election, far more so than Clinton’s email scandals, is – and I say this with a shudder – Trump’s similarity to Hugo Chavez. </p>
<p>Trump’s brazen, loudmouth way of arguing, and the garrulousness with which he attacks his opponents and criticises everyone else, is uncomfortably similar to the openly rabble-rousing <a href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/5423">populism</a> of Hugo Chavez. It’s the approach Chavez used <a href="http://lasa.international.pitt.edu/Lasa2001/EllnerSteve.pdf">to win election</a> in the late 1990s. </p>
<p>The plethora of <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-05-12/american-caudillo">Trump-Chavez comparisons</a> this season has elicited some <a href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/12738">backlash</a>. To be clear, I am not saying that the two represent the same political perspective – but there’s no doubt on the question of style. </p>
<p>Both Trump and Chavez have appealed to the aspirations and fears of their electorates, playing with ambitions, hopes and demands of vindication. Neither cared at all what other people say.</p>
<p>Both also represent a manifestation of <a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-and-democracy-dr-jekyll-and-mr-hyde-67421">populism</a> that emerges when a weakened political system has ceased to satisfy the reasonable demands of a country’s poorest, most excluded citizens. When politics fails to adapt to accommodate them, old symbols lose meaning. </p>
<p>Chavez sought to change politics in order to break the existing political order, and now, in the post-Chavez world, Venezuela is living through a kind of horrible magical realism of political rupture and scarcity. The US is experiencing its own magical reality now, too – but in Trump’s hands, it’s one borne of excesses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67966/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Miguel Angel Latouche does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Facing shortages in food and medicines, extreme political polarisation, and a spiraling economic crisis, Venezuelans find it hard to care about the adventures of Clinton v. Trump.Miguel Angel Latouche, Associate professor, Universidad Central de VenezuelaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/676192016-11-01T07:52:16Z2016-11-01T07:52:16ZEuropean leaders would see a Donald Trump victory as total calamity<p><em>This piece is part of The Conversation Global’s ‘The View From …’ series, explaining how governments and citizens in key countries worldwide view the US election. Today, Richard Maher explains why Europe is so afraid of Donald Trump, and how it all comes down to Russia, NATO and trade.</em></p>
<p>As the US presidential election enters its final week, most poll-based models show Democratic nominee and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/polls.html">in front</a> of Republican challenger, Donald Trump. </p>
<p>There are questions about how Clinton’s ratings will bounce back from the announcement that the FBI is <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37811529">reviewing a newly discovered trove of emails</a> that relate to her use of a personal server for government business when she was secretary of state. But her significant lead in the polls will be hard to beat. </p>
<p>While Clinton has not garnered the same level of enthusiasm across Europe as current US President Barack Obama received in <a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2008/07/16/obamamania-abroad/">2008</a> or <a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/23/1-americas-global-image/">2012</a>, European leaders are no doubt breathing easier now that a Clinton victory seems more likely. </p>
<p>In mid-summer, polls showed a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37450661">real possibility</a> that Trump could win the election and become the 45th President of the United States, an outcome that was seen as catastrophic across Europe.</p>
<p>European leaders watched Trump’s ascent first with dismay and then with growing alarm. Some offered uncharacteristically blunt assessments of his fitness to be a party nominee, and their preferred electoral outcome. </p>
<p>French President François Hollande <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/03/francois-hollande-says-donald-trump-makes-you-want-to-retch">said</a> that Trump “makes you want to retch”. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-clinton-italy-idUSKCN0XL0V8">criticised</a> what he called Trump’s “policy of fear”, and made clear his “very strong” support for Hillary Clinton. </p>
<p>German foreign secretary Frank-Walter Steinmeier called Trump’s portrait of the United States as being beset by internal and external enemies “grotesque”, and <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/steinmeier-trump-transatlantic-news-doubt-president-us-germany-steinmeier/">warned</a> that a Trump presidency would lead to “many uncertainties for the trans-Atlantic relationship”.</p>
<p>For European leaders thinking about the election, three major issues occupy attention: the future of the NATO alliance; the West’s relations with Russia; and whether the moribund Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) can or should be revived.</p>
<h2>NATO</h2>
<p>The candidates’ views of NATO mark one of their most striking foreign policy differences. </p>
<p>While Clinton has <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/23/politics/hillary-clinton-brussels-terrorism-trump-cruz/">called the alliance</a> “one of the best investments America has ever made”, Trump has <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0f397616-f9b8-11e5-8e04-8600cef2ca75">said</a> the alliance is “obsolete”. Trump has also been coy over whether he would respond automatically to a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/donald-trump-issues.html?mtrref=www.nytimes.com&gwh=1755B1DAB4C50303BED2E98450557777&gwt=pay">hypothetical Russian incursion</a> into one of the Baltic republics, which have been NATO members for more than a decade.</p>
<p>Every US president since Truman has interpreted <a href="http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm">Article 5 of the NATO Treaty</a> – the mutual defence clause – as establishing a legal and moral obligation on the United States to aid another alliance member facing external attack. Instead of automatically upholding this commitment, Trump has said that he would condition a US response on whether the NATO ally had previously “fulfilled their obligations to us”. </p>
<p>Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former Danish prime minister and former NATO secretary general, <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/qa-anders-fogh-rasmussen-nato-on-donald-trump/">condemned this statement</a>, saying it undermined US credibility and risked allowing Russia to increase its influence in Europe. </p>
<h2>Russia</h2>
<p>No Democratic or Republican presidential nominee in history has spoken with such admiration of Russia as Donald Trump. Russia is, at the very least, a country most US and European security experts continue to view as a rival if not an actual adversary. </p>
<p>Trump has <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37303057">praised</a> Putin’s intelligence and leadership style, invited Russia to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-clinton-emails.html">commit cyberespionage</a> against Clinton, and suggested that, as president, he might <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2016/07/trump-crimea/493280/">formally recognise Crimea</a> as part of Russia. This is despite the fact that, in the most blatant and serious challenge to post-Cold War Europe’s political and security order, Russian military forces <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/18/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/">forcibly seized</a> the peninsula from Ukraine in a show of force reminiscent of Europe’s darker periods.</p>
<p>If elected, Clinton would enter office with the most strained and contentious relationship with Russia of any president since the end of the Cold War. As David Sanger of the New York Times has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/21/us/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-putin-russia.html">reported</a>, some of Clinton’s longtime advisers are already thinking of ways to put pressure on the Russian government and on Putin himself. These include the imposition of additional sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and international condemnation. </p>
<p>While European leaders would hardly welcome an escalation of US-Russia tensions – especially since the question of how to respond to Russian actions in Ukraine, Syria, and elsewhere is already <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-consider-new-sanctions-against-russia-theresa-may-donald-tusk-european-council/">dividing European governments</a> – Trump’s apparent infatuation with the Kremlin creates even more unease.</p>
<h2>Trade deals</h2>
<p>A key battleground for the US election has been the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which aims to widen market access, enhance regulatory cooperation, and set common rules to promote transatlantic trade and investment. The <a href="http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2016/october/tradoc_155027.pdf">15th and latest round of talks</a> took place in New York in October 2016. </p>
<p>For the United States, TTIP is a corollary to the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was signed in February 2016 but has not yet been ratified.</p>
<p>Regardless of who wins the election, the odds of concluding the TTIP agreement seem unlikely. Trump (along with Democratic Senator and former presidential candidate <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-bernie-sanders/the-tpp-must-be-defeated_b_7352166.html">Bernie Sanders</a>) has stoked opposition in the United States to free trade agreements generally. </p>
<p>Trump has made opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement and the TPP a <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/trade/">core element</a> of his candidacy. While bemoaning the loss of domestic manufacturing jobs to globalisation and free trade, he has proposed a <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-tariff-party-1467240379">range of tariffs</a> and other protectionist measures unseen in the United States since the 1930s. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"651136309029834752"}"></div></p>
<p>Clinton supports the expansion of free trade agreements less enthusiastically than Obama, who pushed hard during his presidency for both the <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/06/politics/obama-tpp-politics-congress/">TPP and TTIP</a>. As president, Clinton is unlikely to make TTIP a priority. </p>
<p>Despite once <a href="http://www.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2012/11/200565.htm">supporting the TPP</a>, she has now come out in <a href="https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/an-economy-that-works-for-everyone/">opposition to it</a> (and has even <a href="http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-07-28/hillary-clinton-s-stand-nafta-and-tpp-it-s-complicated-and-evolving">criticised NAFTA</a>). </p>
<p>Even if Clinton decides to push for the conclusion of TTIP negotiations, however, diminishing popular appeal in both parties for new free trade agreements will make it hard for her to get it ratified by Congress, even though <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/26/upshot/economists-actually-agree-on-this-point-the-wisdom-of-free-trade.html">many economists</a> on both sides of the Atlantic have said that the agreement would <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21571890-good-idea-state-union-address-business-should-rush-support-come-ttip">create jobs</a> and give an important boost to sluggish economic growth in the EU.</p>
<p>If the talks fail, Europe may lose more than just greater access to transatlantic trade and investment. Its ability to promote its values and set global standards – in areas such as workers’ rights, environmental protection, and sustainable development – through trade would take a hit.</p>
<h2>Cheering for Clinton</h2>
<p>A Trump victory on November 8 would be viewed across European capitals as calamitous. While Clinton is well known to European leaders, they view Trump as erratic, unpredictable, and even unstable. </p>
<p>Trump’s views regarding NATO, his overtures to a revanchist and increasingly authoritarian Russia, and his opposition to the expansion of free trade deviate in profound ways from America’s approach to Europe since the end of the second world war – an era that has spanned twelve presidential administrations, six Democratic and six Republican. </p>
<p>European leaders are also worried that a Trump victory might embolden their own national populist movements. </p>
<p>Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Front, has said that <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-le-pen-trump-idUSKCN0ZM05W">she would vote for Trump</a>. Nigel Farage, a major figure in the successful campaign for the UK to leave the EU, has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/24/nigel-farage-donald-trump-rally-hillary-clinton">appeared on the campaign trail</a> with Trump. Anti-Islam Dutch politician <a href="http://europe.newsweek.com/donald-trump-anti-islam-geert-wilders-freedom-party-far-right-republican-482208?rm=eu">Geert Wilders</a> appeared at a fringe event of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July, praising Trump’s proposed ban on Muslim immigration into the United States.</p>
<p>For all these reasons and more, leaders across Europe are rooting for a Clinton victory on November 8, some quietly and some more openly.</p>
<p><em>UPDATE: This article originally stated that Nigel Farage led the Leave campaign in the UK. This has been amended to state that he was a major figure.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67619/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Maher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Europe has a lot riding on this election: NATO, relations with Russia and free trade all hang in the balance.Richard Maher, Research Fellow, European University InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/673402016-10-31T07:46:18Z2016-10-31T07:46:18ZTrump or Clinton? What India really wants from the US election<p><em>This piece is part of The Conversation Global’s ‘The View From …’ series, explaining how governments and citizens in key countries worldwide view the US election. Today, Sumit Kumar Jha explains how both Trump and Clinton have particular ties with India, and what this means for the relationship between the two countries.</em></p>
<p>With a few days left before the US presidential election, the world is waiting to see whether American voters will elect their first female president in Hillary Clinton, or opt for the controversial billionaire Donald Trump. But one thing is sure – the election of either candidate will have a profound impact on US foreign policy. </p>
<p>India, which has transformed its ties with the United States <a href="http://www.tandfebooks.com/isbn/9780203946749">over the past two decades</a>, has its own reasons – especially economic ones – to monitor the election closely. </p>
<h2>What India wants</h2>
<p>Only two years ago, outgoing US President Barack Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi set the goal of <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Modi-Obama-target-500-billion-India-US-trade/articleshow/43974713.cms">increasing bilateral</a> trade to US$500 billion by 2020. The Indian government expects the new US administration to launch initiatives to achieve this goal.</p>
<p>The government in New Delhi also hopes that its counterpart in Washington will remain committed to helping India realise its “<a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/india-us-to-set-up-task-for-developing-3-smart-cities/">Smart City</a>” programme for the cities of Ajmer, Vishakhapatnam and Allahabad.</p>
<p>The Modi government has addressed <a href="http://www.oann.com/u-s-official-says-india-has-addressed-nuclear-concerns/">America’s concerns</a> regarding <a href="http://www.prsindia.org/billtrack/the-civil-liability-for-nuclear-damage-bill-2010-1042/">India’s Civil Liability Nuclear Damage Act 2010</a> by establishing the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-12/nuclear-power-sector-stirs-in-india-as-fears-over-liability-ease">Indian Nuclear Insurance Pool</a>, covering financial liability to nuclear operators for accidents, which has removed a stumbling block to deepening civil-nuclear cooperation. The onus is now on the US to facilitate the operation of the agreement as soon as possible.</p>
<p>While the United States has become India’s largest defence supplier (defence trade between the two countries surpassed <a href="https://www.state.gov/p/sca/rls/rmks/2016/257665.htm">US$14 billion in 2015</a>), India also <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a3ec901a-4571-11e4-ab86-00144feabdc0">needs close cooperation</a> from the United States to ensure the success of the Modi government’s “Make in India” initiative.</p>
<p>In terms of security, India is concerned by China’s position on <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/india-deploys-t-72-tanks-in-ladakh-to-counter-chinas-military-build-up/">disputed territories</a> (such as Arunachal Pradesh in the country’s north-east and Ladakh in the north-west) and by the <a href="http://cme.sagepub.com/content/3/2/147.abstract">growing cooperation</a> between Beijing and Islamabad. China now provides <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/china-behind-pak-s-growing-confidence-supplies-63-of-islamabad-s-arms-need/story-fnqRQYRHRRU73kDxmlILdL.html">63% of Pakistan’s armament</a>.</p>
<p>New Delhi feels the presence of the United States in South Asia will help maintain the balance of power in its favour. The Indian government also knows it cannot pursue military modernisation without access to advanced US weaponry and technology. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.firstpost.com/world/china-russia-pakistan-axis-looks-real-what-course-will-delhi-chart-vis-a-vis-islamabad-3066546.html">Isolating Pakistan</a> for failing to adequately address terrorism also requires the Indian government to sustain security talks and military exercises with the US. </p>
<p>This has assumed additional significance in light of the <a href="http://southasiamonitor.org/news/india-s-changing-geopolitical-environment-a-lecture-by-shiv-shankar-menon/pers/15321">fast-changing security environment</a> in South Asia. The situation intensified following the September <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Uri-terror-attack-Indian-Army-camp-attacked-in-Jammu-and-Kashmir-17-killed-19-injured/articleshow/54389451.cms">terrorist attack</a> on an Indian army camp, near the town of Uri, in Jammu and Kashmir. </p>
<h2>Trump: India’s new best friend?</h2>
<p>With an eye on garnering votes from the Indian-American community, Donald Trump has <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-donald-trump-is-winning-over-many-american-hindus-67518">made many comments</a> about India and its people during the last leg of his election campaign.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143729/original/image-20161028-15783-sg3eq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143729/original/image-20161028-15783-sg3eq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143729/original/image-20161028-15783-sg3eq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143729/original/image-20161028-15783-sg3eq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143729/original/image-20161028-15783-sg3eq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143729/original/image-20161028-15783-sg3eq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143729/original/image-20161028-15783-sg3eq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Empty seats waiting for Republican Hindu coalition members at a rally in New Jersey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jonathan Ernst</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-trump-praises-modi-says-india-us-would-be-best-friends-if-elected-as-president-2264568">Trump has described</a> Modi as a “great man”, at the same time stating that he is a “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/16/us/politics/trump-modi-indian-americans.html?_r=0">great fan of the Hindus</a>”. </p>
<p>Trump wants to attract the attention of the Indian-American community with <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-donald-trump-is-winning-over-many-american-hindus-67518">Hindu nationalist rhetoric</a>. By strongly condemning the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-escalating-kashmir-attacks-tell-us-about-modis-changing-foreign-policy-66363">Uri terrorist attack</a>, he has sent a message that under his administration, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/donald-trump-india-pakistan-mediate/">the US would talk tough with Pakistan</a> on the issue of cross-border terrorism. </p>
<p>As a businessman, Trump also has significant economic interests in India, with a luxury <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-3620454/The-Donald-s-Trump-Tower-Mumbai-offer-wealthy-residents-private-PLANE-service.html">business tower</a> being built in premium location in Mumbai. </p>
<p>But what continues to haunt Indians are <a href="http://scroll.in/article/805343/why-we-shouldnt-celebrate-donald-trumps-support-for-h1b-visas-for-indians">Trump’s views</a> on immigration. According to <a href="http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/indian-immigrants-united-states">official US data</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Indian citizens are the top recipients of temporary high-skilled worker H-1B visas, accounting for 70% of the 316,000 H-1B petitions (for fiscal year 2014).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Trump has already announced that his administration would initiate a <a href="http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-donald-trump-proposes-raise-in-minimum-wage-criteria-for-h1b-visas-to-give-american-workers-priority-2115751">tough immigration policy and hike the minimum wage</a> paid to H1B visa holders, if elected president. This could reduce the prospect of job opportunities for Indian professionals and others. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/indian-immigrants-united-states#Educational%20and%20Professional%20Attainment">US migration census</a>, 103,000 Indian-born students enrolled in US educational institutions in 2013-14. This makes India the second largest source of international students to the United States after China. </p>
<p>Another statement of concern is Trump’s call for Muslims to be banned from entering the US; India has the <a href="http://censusindia.gov.in/Census_And_You/religion.aspx">second-largest Muslim population in the world</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, Donald Trump’s soft approach towards Russia may propel him to revisit US policy towards China. If that happens, it would have serious security ramifications for India.</p>
<h2>Clinton’s eastern act</h2>
<p>Hillary Clinton enjoys personal bonhomie with India as a result of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1995/03/30/world/hillary-clinton-finding-a-new-voice.html">her 1995 visit to the country</a>.</p>
<p>It’s believed she played a crucial role in encouraging her husband Bill Clinton to revive the India-US relationship during his presidency, <a href="http://fpa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/05/04/fpa.orw043.explore">which had hit its lowest point</a> following India’s 1998 <a href="http://jas.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/10/14/0021909615609940.abstract">nuclear tests</a>. </p>
<p>Clinton co-chaired the Senate India Caucus and supported the India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement. During her tenure as US Secretary of State (2009-2013), she further consolidated the deepening engagement between the two countries. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143452/original/image-20161027-11239-1hf1z8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143452/original/image-20161027-11239-1hf1z8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143452/original/image-20161027-11239-1hf1z8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143452/original/image-20161027-11239-1hf1z8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143452/original/image-20161027-11239-1hf1z8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143452/original/image-20161027-11239-1hf1z8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143452/original/image-20161027-11239-1hf1z8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143452/original/image-20161027-11239-1hf1z8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hillary Clinton and her daughter Chelsea in front of the Taj Mahal in 1995.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usembassynewdelhi/5949524472/in/photostream/">US Embassy/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Her contribution is recognised by <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/on-policy-terror-and-trade-india-can-gain-from-a-second-clinton-era/story-LQPgXCbGskI5DZ6FmAFxLI.html">Indian strategic thinkers</a> for facilitating cooperation between the two countries in the field of high technology and defence, and for establishing a <a href="http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2009/july/126230.htm">strategic dialogue between the two countries</a> in July 2009. </p>
<p>She played an important role in strengthening ties with New Delhi under President Obama’s pivot to Asia. And her 2011 speech in Chennai was viewed as an historic moment for bilateral ties between the two countries. She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The time has come for India to lead … Much of the history of the 21st century will be written in Asia which, in turn, will be influenced by the partnership between the US and India and its relationship with neighbours.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>She also said that India should “not just look east, but engage east and act east” — to emerge as and consolidate its status as an Asian power. Her strong stand <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/28/world/asia/28diplo.html">against Pakistan</a> for its dismal performance in eliminating terrorist havens continues to have an impact on the minds of Indian people.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zmqzJtYXVvQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Clinton’s speech in Chennai in 2011, US embassy.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Clinton’s campaign chief <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/hillary-will-take-relations-with-india-to-a-new-level/article8518934.ece">John Podesta has said</a> she will take relations between the two countries to a new level. And that better economic ties with India will anchor the US in the region. </p>
<p>But her rival Donald Trump <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/us-elections-2016/Donald-Trump-alleges-Hillary-Clinton-received-money-from-Indian-politicians-for-nuclear-deal-support/articleshow/52914403.cms">has alleged</a> that Clinton has received funds from Indian leaders for her support of the nuclear deal. </p>
<h2>Consensus in New Delhi</h2>
<p>Clinton enjoys a good reputation among the sections of Indian-American community, especially the younger generation. </p>
<p>Undoubtedly, she enjoys the advantage of knowing India far better than her Republican rival. But it is also true that Trump’s recent efforts to attract the Indian-American community have paid off. </p>
<p>The Indian government and strategists appear less concerned about who wins than they have been in the past. So far, neither India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor Prime Minister Modi has taken any stand on the US election. </p>
<p>There’s a general consensus among experts and strategists in India that irrespective of which candidate wins the election, New Delhi and Washington must continue to work together on making their ties even closer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67340/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sumit Kumar Jha receives funding from ICSSR and UGC, New Delhi. </span></em></p>Regardless of US presidential results, India needs to keep the United States close to maintain the balance of power in South Asia.Sumit Kumar, Senior Researcher, University of PondicherryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.