tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/tsunami-152/articlesTsunami – The Conversation2023-10-17T15:29:28Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123082023-10-17T15:29:28Z2023-10-17T15:29:28ZHow animal traits have shaped the journey of species across the globe<p>The devastating <a href="https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazel/view/hazards/tsunami/event-more-info/5413">tsunami</a> that hit Japan in March 2011 set off a series of events which have long fascinated scientists like me. It was so powerful that it caused 5 million tonnes of debris to <a href="https://marinedebris.noaa.gov/japan-tsunami-marine-debris/monitoring-tsunami-debris-north-american-shorelines">wash</a> into the Pacific – 1.5 million tonnes remained afloat and started drifting with the currents. </p>
<p>One year later, and half a world away, debris began washing ashore on the west coast of North America. More than 280 Japanese coastal species such as mussels, barnacles and even some species of fish, had <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.aao1498?casa_token=YwHfCNElf14AAAAA:zJj4eY3uUm2_m4ZH5YzIO6ecvSWdVa_53yZk0ycnxm1Ga3bPLTl5Z6hCbUhvsmA4d0KSPHFPKz84nQ">hitched a ride</a> on the debris and made an incredible journey across the ocean. These species were still alive and had the potential to establish new populations. </p>
<p>How animals cross major barriers, such as oceans and mountain ranges, to shape Earth’s biodiversity is an intriguing topic. And a new <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-023-02150-5">study</a> by my collaborators and I has shed light on this process, revealing how animal characteristics such as body size and life history can influence their spread across the globe.</p>
<p>We know that such dispersal events occur in terrestrial species as well. For instance, at least 15 green iguanas <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/26886">journeyed</a> more than 200km (124 miles) from Guadeloupe to Anguilla in the Caribbean in 1995. They arrived on a mat of logs and trees (likely uprooted through a hurricane), some of which were more than 9 metres (20 feet) long. </p>
<h2>The role of animal characteristics in dispersal</h2>
<p>When animals move across major barriers it can have a big impact on both the new and old locations. For example, an invasive species can arrive in a new area and compete with native species for resources. However, those consequences can be even greater over longer periods of time.</p>
<p>The movement of monkeys from Africa to South America around 35 million years ago led to the evolution of more than 90 species of <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-anthro-102116-041510?casa_token=CZtEoQ5Z9bMAAAAA%3AX9JrgVyGxxegDXgVTUPNHZboMldBec1egagn5S4pLwx4yudreF4L6Q6zG4jUeB9tMxJEIy4q67iX&journalCode=anthro">New World monkeys</a>, including tamarins, capuchins and spider monkeys. And a few chameleons rafting on vegetation from Africa to Madagascar is why we find half of all living <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2013.0184">chameleon</a> species there today.</p>
<p>These events were long thought to be determined by chance – the coincidence of some chameleons sitting on the right tree at the right time. However, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/24529638.pdf?casa_token=NyxiUsFXod0AAAAA:9aBvrCPO0om98AjWOfs482QWf5eQxRUwKt95p4S3trPy1CQ2CM4K0AJeMBtsNKwKST8ILswcwdjQBRq8ZpdR5-3KL3gOn9uYZHOjzDdPyTm4R3Dom1o">some scientists</a> have suggested there might be more to it. They hypothesised there could be more general patterns in the animals that reach their destination successfully, related to certain characteristics.</p>
<p>Could body size affect how far a species can travel? Animals with more fat reserves may be able to travel longer distances. Or could it be how a species reproduces and survives? For example, animals that lay many eggs or mature early may be more likely to establish a new population in a new place.</p>
<p>But despite a vigorous theoretical debate, the options to test these hypotheses were limited because such dispersal events are rare. Also, the right statistical tools were not available until recently.</p>
<p>Thanks to the recent development of new <a href="https://academic.oup.com/sysbio/article/69/1/61/5490843">biogeographical models</a> and the great availability of data, we can now try to answer questions about how tetrapod species (amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals) have moved around the globe over the past 300 million years and whether successful species share any common characteristics.</p>
<p>These models allow us to estimate the movements of species’ ancestors while also considering their characteristics. We used these models to study 7,009 species belonging to 56 groups of tetrapods.</p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>For 91% of the animal groups we studied, models that included species characteristics were better supported than models that didn’t. This means that body size and life history are closely linked to how successful a species is at moving to and establishing itself in a new location.</p>
<p>Animals with large bodies and fast life histories (breeding early and often, like water voles) generally dispersed more successfully, as expected. However, there were some exceptions to this rule. In some groups, smaller animals or animals with average traits had higher dispersal rates.</p>
<p>For example, small hummingbirds dispersed better than larger ones, and poison dart frogs with intermediate life histories dispersed better than those with very fast or very slow life histories.</p>
<p>We investigated this variation further and found that the relationship between body size and movement depended on the average size and life history of the group. Our results show that the links between characteristics and dispersal success depend on both body size and life history, and that these cannot be considered separately. </p>
<p>Groups in which small size was an advantage were often already made up of small species (making the dispersal-prone species even smaller), and these species also had fast life histories. We found this to be true for the rodent families <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/Muridae"><em>Muridae</em></a> and <a href="https://nhpbs.org/wild/cricetidae.asp"><em>Cricetidae</em></a>. </p>
<p>But groups in which dispersers had intermediate body sizes generally had slow life histories (meaning they had low reproductive output but long lifespans). This means the combination of small body size and slow life history is very unlikely to be an advantage for dispersal across major barriers such as oceans.</p>
<h2>It’s not just chance</h2>
<p>It is amazing to think that rare dispersal events, which can lead to the rise of many new species, are not completely random. Instead, the intrinsic characteristics of species can shape the histories of entire groups of animals, even though chance still may play an important role.</p>
<p>At the same time, two of the most important <a href="https://zenodo.org/record/3553579">environmental challenges</a> of our time are related to movement across major barriers: biological invasions and species’ responses to climate change. On a planet facing rapid changes, understanding how animals move across barriers is therefore crucial.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212308/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>While working on this study, Sarah-Sophie Weil was affiliated with Université Grenoble Alpes (France) and Swansea University (Wales, UK) who supported her through Initiative d’excellence (IDEX) International Strategic Partnership and Swansea University Strategic Partner Research (SUSPR) scholarships.</span></em></p>New research looks at how different species have managed to cross geographic barriers throughout history and whether their individual traits played a crucial role in these journeys.Sarah-Sophie Weil, PhD candidate, Swansea UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2121582023-08-25T12:21:39Z2023-08-25T12:21:39ZWhy Japan has started pumping water from Fukushima into the Pacific – and should we be concerned?<p>Japan’s decision to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/24/japan-begins-releasing-fukushima-wastewater-into-pacific-ocean">release water</a> from the Fukushima nuclear power plant has been greeted with horror by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/24/they-wont-buy-it-fish-traders-anxious-after-fukushima-wastewater-release">local fishing industry</a> as well as China and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/04/we-depend-on-our-beautiful-reefs-fukushima-water-release-plan-sparks-concern-across-pacific">several Pacific Island states</a>. China – which together with Hong Kong imports more than <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66613158">US$1.1bn (£866m) of seafood</a> from Japan every year – has <a href="http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/2480148/5274475/index.html">slapped a ban</a> on all seafood imports from Japan, citing health concerns.</p>
<p>Tokyo has asked for the ban to be lifted immediately. The Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/08/a92c9689bb62-japan-pm-asks-china-to-lift-seafood-import-ban-after-water-release.html?phrase=Park&words=">told reporters</a> on Thursday: “We strongly encourage discussion among experts based on scientific grounds.” Japan has <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/japan-releases-fukushima-water-into-the-ocean-prompting-criticism-seafood-bans/">previously criticised China</a> for spreading “scientifically unfounded claims”.</p>
<p>Japan remains steadfast in its assurance that the water is safe. The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02057-y">discharge process</a>, which will take 30 years, was approved by the International Atomic Energy Agency – the intergovernmental organisation that develops safety standards for managing radioactive waste. And seawater samples taken following the water’s release showed radioactivity levels <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/25/fukushima-daiichi-nuclear-power-plant-china-wastewater-release">more than seven times lower</a> than the drinking water limit set by the World Health Organization.</p>
<p>Since the world’s highest authority on radioactive waste backs Japan’s plan, should we also dismiss the concerns raised by Pacific nations and local fishermen as merely irrational fear of radioactive materials?</p>
<h2>Contaminated water</h2>
<p>In 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the north-eastern coast of Japan’s main island, Honshu, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-of-2011">triggered a tsunami</a> that devastated many coastal areas of the country. Tsunami waves knocked out the Fukushima nuclear power plant’s backup electricity supply and caused meltdowns in three of its reactors. The event is regarded as one of the worst nuclear accidents in history.</p>
<p>Since the accident, water has been used to cool the damaged reactors. But, as the reactor core contains numerous radioactive elements, including ruthenium, uranium, plutonium, strontium, caesium and tritium, the cooling water has become contaminated.</p>
<p>The tainted water is stored in more than 1,000 steel tanks at the power plant. It has been treated to remove most of the radioactive contaminants – but traces of the radioactive isotope tritium remain.</p>
<p>Removing tritium from the water is challenging. Tritium is a radioactive form of hydrogen that forms water molecules with properties similar to regular water. </p>
<p>It does decay over time to form helium (which is less harmful). But tritium has a half-life of slightly over 12 years. </p>
<p>This is relatively quick in comparison to other radioactive contaminants. But it will still take around 100 years for the radioactivity of the tritium within the tanks at Fukushima to drop below 1%. </p>
<p>To safely store the water that will continue to be contaminated over that time (some <a href="https://apnews.com/article/japan-fukushima-nuclear-radioactive-wastewater-release-fdaed86a7366f68c70eca0397b71b221">100 tonnes of water</a> each day), the plant’s operators will need to construct an additional 2,700 storage tanks. This may be impractical – storage space at Fukushima is fast running out.</p>
<h2>Should we be concerned?</h2>
<p>Studies have, in the past, explored the health effects of tritium exposure. However, much of this research has focused on organisms such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/zebra-fish">zebrafish</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/mussel">marine mussels</a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.4650">Research</a> from France, for example, found that tritium – in the form of titrated water – led to DNA damage, altered muscle tissue and changed movement patterns in zebrafish larvae. </p>
<p>Interestingly, the zebrafish were exposed to tritium concentrations similar to those estimated to be in the storage tanks at Fukushima. But the tritium at Fukushima will be significantly diluted before its release, reaching levels almost a million times lower than those that caused health issues in zebrafish larvae.</p>
<p>Marine organisms within the discharge zone will experience consistent exposure to this low concentration over the next 30 years. We cannot definitively rule out potential repercussions from this on marine life. And, importantly, the findings from these studies cannot be universally applied to all animals. </p>
<p>It’s worth noting, however, that organisms can eliminate half of the tritium in their bodies through biological processes in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jrr/article/62/4/557/6256015">less than two weeks</a> (known as the biological half-life).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A zebrafish." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544582/original/file-20230824-15-pugylp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544582/original/file-20230824-15-pugylp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544582/original/file-20230824-15-pugylp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544582/original/file-20230824-15-pugylp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544582/original/file-20230824-15-pugylp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544582/original/file-20230824-15-pugylp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544582/original/file-20230824-15-pugylp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Evidence that tritium can cause negative health effects in marine organisms is restricted to laboratory experiments on animals like zebrafish.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/zebrafish-danio-rerio-planted-aquarium-718879114">NERYXCOM/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>But that’s not everything</h2>
<p>In theory, it’s also possible that the potential health issues linked to tritium could worsen due to the presence of other chemical contaminants. In China, researchers discovered that exposing zebrafish larvae to both tritium and genistein – a naturally occurring compound produced by some plants that is commonly found in water – led to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1001504">reduced survival and hatching rates</a>.</p>
<p>The amount of tritium used in this study was over 3,000 times less than that used in the French study. But it still exceeded the levels being discharged into the Pacific Ocean from Fukushima by almost 250 times.</p>
<p>Yet it’s possible that other chemical contaminants present in the ocean near Japan or within the storage tanks could interact with tritium in a similar way, potentially offsetting the benefits of dilution.</p>
<p>Given that we lack precise knowledge of the exact chemical pollutants present in Fukushima’s water storage tanks and their potential combined effects with tritium, it could be unwise to casually brush aside the very real concerns raised by Pacific nations and fishermen.</p>
<hr>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edmond Sanganyado receives funding from the Analytical Chemistry Trust Fund (ACSS 23/0012) and the Royal Society of Chemistry (R21-0850929337).</span></em></p>Japan’s much-criticised plan to release wastewater from Fukushima into the Pacific is underway – and many are concerned.Edmond Sanganyado, Assistant Professor in Environmental Forensics, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2007232023-03-19T11:51:46Z2023-03-19T11:51:46ZHow images of the 2011 tsunami in Japan led me to examine connections with water in photography, sound and sculpture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515314/original/file-20230314-1506-csxvs5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C134%2C2901%2C1738&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An earthquake-triggered tsunami sweeps shores along Iwanuma, Miyagi prefecture, northern Japan, March 11, 2011. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Kyodo News via AP, File)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In everyday language when we describe something as “salient” we mean what’s most central. </p>
<p>In geography, a “salient” is a prominent feature in a landscape, like an iceberg breaking the surface of the sea. The word “salient” also has affinity with “saline”: both come from <a href="https://www.etymonline.com/search?q=saline&ref=searchbar_searchhint">the Latin word for salt</a>. </p>
<p><em>Salients</em> is also the title of an exhibit which is a <a href="https://museum.mcmaster.ca/exhibition/chris-myhr-salients/">retrospective of my artwork</a>. The exhibit brings together photography, sound and found objects from projects, developed over a decade, that revolve around our complex interrelationships with water. </p>
<p>The catalyst for this trajectory in my studio practice was the Tōhoku earthquake and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-of-2011/Aftermath-of-the-disaster">tsunami that struck the east coast of Japan in 2011</a>. </p>
<p>I lived and worked in Tokyo from 1998 to 2006, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2021/03/photos-10-years-great-east-japan-earthquake/618243">and witnessing the images of</a> what’s sometimes known as <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/01/30/national/science-health/japan-researchers-disaster-lessons/">the 3/11 disaster</a>, as well as the resulting global reverberations, led to a fundamental shift in my world view.</p>
<p>It also catalyzed a dedicated move in my research and art production toward issues surrounding water, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-01969-y">complex interconnectivity</a> and the ways in which the ocean and its tributaries shape culture, industry and the collective imagination. </p>
<h2>Source of life, destruction</h2>
<p>Much of my work since Tōhoku has explored the contradiction or tension whereby
water acts not only as a constructive and generative influence — the source of all life on our planet, but also an agent of immense and unfathomable destructive power.</p>
<p>What struck me initially about images of the 3/11 tsunami was that it did not look as I had expected. Its form looked nothing <a href="https://www.katsushikahokusai.org/biography.html">like Katsushika Hokusai’s</a> iconic painting <a href="https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/45434"><em>Under the Wave off Kanagawa</em></a>, also known as <em>The Great Wave</em>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of a great wave moving toward the shore." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515310/original/file-20230314-21-bpxk7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515310/original/file-20230314-21-bpxk7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515310/original/file-20230314-21-bpxk7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515310/original/file-20230314-21-bpxk7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515310/original/file-20230314-21-bpxk7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515310/original/file-20230314-21-bpxk7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515310/original/file-20230314-21-bpxk7u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Images of the tsunami looked nothing like Hokusai’s ‘The Great Wave.’</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nor did it look anything like depictions I had <a href="https://thecinemaholic.com/tsunami-movies/">seen in disaster films</a>. </p>
<p>There was no blue triangular shape, no white froth at the peak. Instead, the force of the earthquake manifested in a <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/tohoku-earthquake-and-tsunami">dark swell of water mixed with earth</a>
that advanced inland without acceleration or deceleration. </p>
<p>The wave swept across the landscape effortlessly, pulling with it crushed cars, uprooted trees and buildings, as well as unimaginable things dragged along beneath the surface.</p>
<h2>The sublime: awe, wonder, fear</h2>
<p>There was something in the affect and aesthetics of these images that positioned them for me within <a href="https://www.theartstory.org/definition/the-sublime-in-art/">the tradition of the sublime</a> — a term from Euro-western philosophical and artistic discourse that has <a href="https://www.tate.org.uk/art/research-publications/the-sublime">been evolving and morphing</a> since at <a href="https://www.bl.uk/collection-items/burkes-a-philosophical-enquiry-into-the-origin-of-our-ideas-of-the-sublime-and-beautiful">least the 17th century</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.etymonline.com/search?q=sublime">etymological roots</a> of “sublime” come from the Latin <em>sublimis</em> meaning “high up” or lofty. In the western history of visual art, the sublime is most frequently associated with the work of Romantic-era painters <a href="https://www.thecollector.com/sublime-landscape-paintings/">like Joseph Turner and Caspar Friedrich</a>. Western curators sometimes also <a href="http://www.laurencemillergallery.com/exhibitions/pursuing-the-sublime">include Hokusai when exploring the sublime</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Boats surrounded by water and sky." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515308/original/file-20230314-21-tg7btu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515308/original/file-20230314-21-tg7btu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515308/original/file-20230314-21-tg7btu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515308/original/file-20230314-21-tg7btu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515308/original/file-20230314-21-tg7btu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515308/original/file-20230314-21-tg7btu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515308/original/file-20230314-21-tg7btu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Watercolour by Joseph Mallord William Turner, c. 1840.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Trustees of the British Museum)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These artists attempted to articulate the visceral sense of awe and wonder — slightly tinged with fear — that one experiences when gazing upon the vastness of a starry sky, or a body of water stretching from horizon to horizon. </p>
<p>The sublime points toward certain modes of aesthetic, sensory and existential experience <a href="https://www.artforum.com/print/198204/presenting-the-unpresentable-the-sublime-35606">that exceed human thought and understanding</a>.</p>
<h2>Boundless networks of co-existence</h2>
<p><a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262513913/the-sublime">Contemporary theory</a> around the sublime extends the term to include machines and technology, vast networks of global communications and the internet. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gods-in-the-machine-the-rise-of-artificial-intelligence-may-result-in-new-religions-201068">Gods in the machine? The rise of artificial intelligence may result in new religions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In this sense, there is also something sublime about the ways in which the medium of water interconnects all things: it flows across borders and blurs delineations between local/global, micro/macro and human/non-human. </p>
<p>I am particularly invested in the work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/OBO/9780190221911-0016">of contemporary philosophers</a> such as <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/vibrant-matter">Jane Bennett</a> and <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674064225">Timothy Morton</a> whose work challenges us to rethink the place of humans within these boundless networks of coexistence. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515293/original/file-20230314-3238-9ls37o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two images seen hanging on a white wall of rusty and calcified-looking pipes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515293/original/file-20230314-3238-9ls37o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515293/original/file-20230314-3238-9ls37o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515293/original/file-20230314-3238-9ls37o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515293/original/file-20230314-3238-9ls37o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515293/original/file-20230314-3238-9ls37o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515293/original/file-20230314-3238-9ls37o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515293/original/file-20230314-3238-9ls37o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pipes dating back to the 17th century recovered from the sea floor by historian and master diver Bob Chaulk off the coast of Nova Scotia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Chris Myhr)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Pipes, glass vessels, algae, contaminants</h2>
<p>The projects in <em>Salients</em> feature subject matter collected from four major Canadian water systems: </p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://www.chrismyhr.com/work#/vessels-between-teeth-20162018/">mariners’ pipes</a> and <a href="https://www.chrismyhr.com/work#/vessels-undertone-20162018/">glass vessels</a> dating back to the 17th century recovered <a href="https://haligonia.ca/treasure-hunter-4266/">from the sea floor</a> off the coast of Nova Scotia; </p></li>
<li><p>evaporated samples of <a href="https://www.chrismyhr.com/work#/suspensions-2018/">toxic blue-green algae</a> taken <a href="https://environment.geog.ubc.ca/algal-blooms-in-the-great-lakes-consequences-governance-and-solutions/">from blooms</a> in Lake Ontario;</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.chrismyhr.com/work#/absolutes-athabasca-river-2020-2021/">hydrocarbon sediment</a> from filtered samples of snow <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/corporate/transparency/priorities-management/evaluations/evaluation-water-quality-aquatic-ecosystems-health-program/background.html">collected by scientists</a> along the banks <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Fort-McMurray">of the Athabasca River</a> as it flows through <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/oil-sands-facts-and-statistics.aspx">the oil sands region</a> of northern Alberta;</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.chrismyhr.com/work#/absolutes-lake-erie-2020-2021/">similar contaminants</a> washing up <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Point-Pelee-National-Park">on the western shoreline of Point Pelee</a> peninsula in Lake Erie, Ont.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516045/original/file-20230317-24-5ztntp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Seen on the wall, photographic images of circles, and a platform with a mound of lump-like black matter, and on the floor a black disc is seen sitting on a pedestal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516045/original/file-20230317-24-5ztntp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516045/original/file-20230317-24-5ztntp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516045/original/file-20230317-24-5ztntp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516045/original/file-20230317-24-5ztntp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516045/original/file-20230317-24-5ztntp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516045/original/file-20230317-24-5ztntp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516045/original/file-20230317-24-5ztntp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On the right, ‘Ab-Solutes: Athabasca River’ images. From a speaker on a pedestal, on the floor, can be heard underwater soundscape from beneath Lake Ontario at Hamilton Harbour, Ont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Chris Myhr)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516046/original/file-20230317-3709-yrmo5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nine pictures hang on a wall, some of faint blob-like images, some of dark circles; a glob-like black object seen on a platform on the wall and a black circular object is seen on a pedestal." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516046/original/file-20230317-3709-yrmo5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516046/original/file-20230317-3709-yrmo5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516046/original/file-20230317-3709-yrmo5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516046/original/file-20230317-3709-yrmo5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516046/original/file-20230317-3709-yrmo5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516046/original/file-20230317-3709-yrmo5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516046/original/file-20230317-3709-yrmo5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Photographs of evaporated samples of toxic algae taken from blooms in Lake Ontario, on the left, and found object sculpture consisting of ‘tar glob’ hydrocarbon sediment collected along the shoreline of Point Pelee peninsula, Ont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Chris Myhr)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Irreducibility of matter</h2>
<p>There are no direct representations of water in the <em>Salients</em> exhibition.
Returning to the idea of “saline,” what is seen in the exhibition is not so much the “solution” but the “salt” — stubborn matter that has refused to dissolve within the water system from which it was recovered.</p>
<p>Euro-western thinking tends to delineate between matter and energy. Yet — like energy — matter cannot be created nor destroyed. Instead, it moves and shifts from one form to another; from one location to another; <a href="https://iupress.org/9780253222404/bodily-natures/">from one body to another</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515825/original/file-20230316-22-zldz2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515825/original/file-20230316-22-zldz2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515825/original/file-20230316-22-zldz2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515825/original/file-20230316-22-zldz2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515825/original/file-20230316-22-zldz2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515825/original/file-20230316-22-zldz2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515825/original/file-20230316-22-zldz2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515825/original/file-20230316-22-zldz2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zeroing in on visual traces of evaporated toxic algae poses deeper questions about our relationship to the chains of events intertwining humans, nonhumans and our shared environments.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Chris Myhr)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although <em>Salients</em> images have been rendered through advanced digital imaging technologies, they ruminate not on ephemeral things like data or pixels but rather <a href="https://philosophyofmovementblog.com/2020/08/20/what-is-object-oriented-ontology-what-is-actor-network-theory-what-is-the-philosophy-of-movement">the sheer irreducibility of matter</a>. </p>
<p>Our material legacies <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/hyperobjects">will certainly outlive</a> our digital footprints. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515316/original/file-20230314-2882-73vaqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Images hang on a wall on the left of shiny, bubble-like colour swirls, on the right, very dark images." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515316/original/file-20230314-2882-73vaqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515316/original/file-20230314-2882-73vaqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515316/original/file-20230314-2882-73vaqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515316/original/file-20230314-2882-73vaqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515316/original/file-20230314-2882-73vaqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515316/original/file-20230314-2882-73vaqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515316/original/file-20230314-2882-73vaqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Photographs of the surfaces of glass vessels recovered from the Atlantic seafloor marked and coloured over long passages of time, and images of tar-like hydrocarbon sediment collected along the shoreline of Lake Erie.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Chris Myhr)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sublime environmental challenges</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515337/original/file-20230314-2882-icqgqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An assymetrical black form seen surrounded by murky water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515337/original/file-20230314-2882-icqgqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515337/original/file-20230314-2882-icqgqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515337/original/file-20230314-2882-icqgqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515337/original/file-20230314-2882-icqgqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515337/original/file-20230314-2882-icqgqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515337/original/file-20230314-2882-icqgqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515337/original/file-20230314-2882-icqgqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Digital photograph, ‘Ab-Solutes: Lake Erie’ (Untitled C2b).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Chris Myhr)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bitumen falling from the sky in Fort McMurray, tar globs embedded in the sand along Lake Erie and microbial <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-01/algae-blooms-visible-from-space-increased-as-climate-warmed#">algae blooms visible from space</a> gesture toward complicated and messy environmental challenges <a href="https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-09-19/humanity-and-nature-are-not-separate-we-must-see-them-as-one-to-fix-the-climate-crisis/">that will not dissolve smoothly within conventional frameworks of Euro-Western thinking</a>. </p>
<p>There is no singular cause to these effects, and there will be no silver bullet solution to these problems. </p>
<p>It will take <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520276116/how-forests-think">different frameworks</a> of thinking: <a href="http://www.openhumanitiespress.org/books/titles/art-in-the-anthropocene/">creative</a>, <a href="https://milkweed.org/book/braiding-sweetgrass">inclusive</a> and <a href="https://www.allwecansave.earth/">interdisciplinary</a> thinking to deal with these issues which — in their vertiginous complexity and sheer magnitude — most certainly border on the sublime.</p>
<p><em>‘Salients’ runs until March 24 at the McMaster Museum of Art in Hamilton, Ont.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200723/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The artworks in “Salients” were produced with support from the Canada Council for the Arts and the Ontario Arts Council.</span></em></p>Images of the 2011 tsunami did not look as I had expected, and pointed to the sublime, when experience exceeds our frameworks of understanding. My exhibit ‘Salients’ treats this theme.Chris Myhr, Associate Professor, Communication Studies & Media Arts, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1757342023-01-12T23:53:04Z2023-01-12T23:53:04ZA year on, we know why the Tongan eruption was so violent. It’s a wake-up call to watch other submarine volcanoes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503988/original/file-20230111-16-rr5zat.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C34%2C1024%2C587&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sung-Hyun Park/Korea Polar Research Institute</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Kingdom of Tonga exploded into global news on January 15 last year with one of the most spectacular and violent volcanic eruptions ever seen. </p>
<p>Remarkably, it was caused by a volcano that lies under hundreds of metres of seawater. The event shocked the public and volcano scientists alike. </p>
<p>Was this a new type of eruption we’ve never seen before? Was it a wake-up call to pay more attention to threats from submarine volcanoes around the world? </p>
<p>The answer is yes to both questions.</p>
<p>The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano was a little-known seamount along a chain of 20 similar volcanoes that make up the Tongan part of the Pacific “<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-are-earthquakes-common-in-the-pacific-ring-of-fire/a-36676363">Ring of Fire</a>”. </p>
<p>We know a lot about surface volcanoes along this ring, including Mount St Helens in the US, Mount Fuji in Japan and Gunung Merapi of Indonesia. But we know very little about the hundreds of submarine volcanoes around it. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map of the Pacific Ring of Fire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504118/original/file-20230111-11-byabvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504118/original/file-20230111-11-byabvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504118/original/file-20230111-11-byabvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504118/original/file-20230111-11-byabvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504118/original/file-20230111-11-byabvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504118/original/file-20230111-11-byabvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/504118/original/file-20230111-11-byabvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientists have good understanding of land-based volcanoes along the Pacific Ring of Fire, but far less so about seamounts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is difficult, expensive and time-consuming to study submarine volcanoes, but out of sight is no longer out of mind. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-volcanic-eruption-in-tonga-was-so-violent-and-what-to-expect-next-175035">Why the volcanic eruption in Tonga was so violent, and what to expect next</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Tongan eruption breaks records</h2>
<p>The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption has firmly established itself in the record books with the highest ash plume ever measured and a <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100091">58km aerosol cloud</a> “overshoot” that touched space beyond the mesosphere. It also triggered the <a href="https://www.xweather.com/annual-lightning-report">largest number of lightning bolts</a> recorded for any type of natural event. </p>
<p>The injection of large amounts of <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100248">water vapour into the outer atmosphere</a>, along with “<a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.abo7063">sonic booms</a>” (atmospheric pressure waves) and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00024-022-03215-5">tsunami</a> that travelled the entire world, set new benchmarks for volcanic phenomena.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2499/2022-12_Hunga_Tonga_hunga-Loop_with_logo%281%29.gif?1673469814" width="100%"> </p>
<p>COVID hampered access to Tonga during the eruption and its aftermath, but local scientists and an international scientific collaborative effort helped us discover what drove its extreme violence.</p>
<h2>Eruption creates a giant hole</h2>
<p>A team from the Tongan Geological Services and the University of Auckland used a multi-beam sonar mapping system to precisely measure the shape of the volcano, just three months after the January blast. </p>
<p>We were astonished to find the rim of the vast submarine volcano was intact, but the formerly 6km diameter flat top of the submarine cone was rent by a hole 4km wide and almost 1km deep. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503985/original/file-20230111-26-pf4c3w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503985/original/file-20230111-26-pf4c3w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503985/original/file-20230111-26-pf4c3w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503985/original/file-20230111-26-pf4c3w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503985/original/file-20230111-26-pf4c3w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503985/original/file-20230111-26-pf4c3w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503985/original/file-20230111-26-pf4c3w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai crater and caldera before and after the eruption.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sung-Hyun Park/Korea Polar Research Institute</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is known as a “caldera” and happens when the central part of the volcano collapses in on itself after magma is rapidly “pumped out”. We calculate over 7.1 cubic kilometres of magma was ejected. It is almost impossible to envisage, but if we wanted to refill the caldera, it would take one billion truck loads.</p>
<p>It is hard to explain the physics of the Hunga eruption, even with the large magma volume and its interaction with seawater. We need other driving forces to explain especially the climactic first hour of the eruption. </p>
<h2>Mixed magmas lead to chain reaction</h2>
<p>Only when we examined the texture and chemistry of the erupted particles (volcanic ash) did we see clues about the event’s violence. Different magmas were intimately mixed and mingled before the eruption, with contrasts visible at a micron to centimetre scale. </p>
<p>Isotopic “fingerprinting” using lead, neodymium, uranium and strontium shows at least three different magma sources were involved. Radium isotope analysis shows two magma bodies were older and resident in the middle of the Earth’s crust, before being joined by a new, younger one shortly before the eruption.</p>
<p>The mingling of magmas caused a strong reaction, driving water and other so-called “volatile elements” out of solution and into gas. This creates bubbles and an expanding magma foam, pushing the magma out vigorously at the onset of eruption. </p>
<p>This intermediate or “andesite” composition has low viscosity. It means magma can be rapidly forced out through narrow cracks in the rock. Hence, there was an extremely rapid tapping of magma from 5-10km below the volcano, leading to sudden step-wise collapses of the caldera. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tonga-eruption-was-so-intense-it-caused-the-atmosphere-to-ring-like-a-bell-175311">Tonga eruption was so intense, it caused the atmosphere to ring like a bell</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The caldera collapse led to a chain reaction because seawater suddenly drained through cracks and faults and encountered magma rising from depth in the volcano. The resulting high-pressure direct contact of water with magma at more than 1150°C caused two high-intensity explosions around 30 and 45 minutes into the eruption. Each explosion further decompressed the magma below, continuing the chain reaction by amplifying bubble growth and magma rise.</p>
<p>After about an hour, the central eruption plume lost energy and the eruption moved to a lower-elevation ejection of particles in a concentric curtain-like pattern around the volcano. </p>
<p>This less focused phase of eruption led to widespread pyroclastic flows – hot and fast-flowing clouds of gas, ash and fragments of rock – that collapsed into the ocean and caused submarine density currents. These damaged vast lengths of the international and domestic data cables, cutting Tonga off from the rest of the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="This map shows the sites of ongoing venting after the eruption." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503990/original/file-20230111-24-b3kaju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503990/original/file-20230111-24-b3kaju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503990/original/file-20230111-24-b3kaju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503990/original/file-20230111-24-b3kaju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=709&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503990/original/file-20230111-24-b3kaju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503990/original/file-20230111-24-b3kaju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503990/original/file-20230111-24-b3kaju.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=891&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This map shows the sites of ongoing venting after the eruption.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marta Ribo/AUT</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Unanswered questions and challenges</h2>
<p>Even after long analysis of a growing body of eyewitness accounts, there are still major unanswered questions about this eruption. </p>
<p>The most important is what led to the largest local tsunami – an 18-20m-high wave that struck most of the central Tongan islands around an hour into the eruption. Earlier tsunami are well linked to the two large explosions at around 30 and 45 minutes into the eruption. Currently, the best candidate for the largest tsunami is the collapse of the caldera itself, which caused seawater to rush back into the new cavity.</p>
<p>This event has parallels only to the great 1883 eruption of Krakatoa in Indonesia and has changed our perspective of the potential hazards from shallow submarine volcanoes. Work has begun on improving volcanic monitoring in Tonga using onshore and offshore seismic sensors along with infrasound sensors and a range of satellite observation tools. </p>
<p>All of these monitoring methods are expensive and difficult compared to land-based volcanoes. Despite the enormous expense of submarine research vessels, intensive efforts are underway to identify other volcanoes around the world that pose Hunga-like threats.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175734/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shane Cronin receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, through the Endeavour Fund (UOAX1913 and UOAX2213).
Results described in this work includes work in progress in collaboration with Dr Marta Ribo (Auckland University of Technology, NZ), Prof James Garvin (NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre, USA), Prof Frank Ramos (New Mexico State University, USA), Dr Sung-Hyun Park (Korean Polar Research Centre, Republic of Korea) Drs Joali Paredes, Jie Wu, Ingrid Ukstins and David Adams (The University of Auckland, NZ) and Taaniela Kula (Tongan Geoscience Services).</span></em></p>The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano set new benchmarks for volcanic phenomena and efforts are under way to identify other submarine volcanoes around the world that could pose similar threats.Shane Cronin, Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1829032022-08-03T17:13:05Z2022-08-03T17:13:05ZCanada’s international disaster responders have skills and experience that could be deployed in emergencies here at home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476623/original/file-20220729-19-uyyv4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C59%2C1928%2C1191&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A medical worker looks through the debris of a medical lab in Port-au-Prince, Haiti following an earthquake in January 2010. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Responding to international emergencies following natural disasters gives health-care workers knowledge and skills that are crucial in a crisis. They are uniquely prepared for the unpredictable conditions that follow disasters.</p>
<p>In Haiti after the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/2010-Haiti-earthquake">disastrous 2010 earthquake</a>, I was working as a physician with a medical team from the International Federation of the Red Cross. When a young woman joined us for hospital rounds one day, I noticed her Canadian accent.</p>
<p>Afterwards, I asked her who she was. She was a medical student from Saskatchewan who had decided simply to show up and help. She’d flown to the Dominican Republic and hitchhiked to Haiti. It was very unsafe for her to have done this alone, and without previous experience or training there was little for her to do but go back home.</p>
<p>It was clear she’d come out of a sincere desire to help, but had no idea what was really required, nor how disaster relief is organized.</p>
<h2>Unique skills and experience</h2>
<p>In 2004, I was working with an International Red Cross team in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Indian-Ocean-tsunami-of-2004">Aceh, Indonesia, after the catastrophic tsunami</a>. I recall realizing how little I could have done without the many skills and deep experience of my colleagues, who quickly set up an independently functioning field hospital on a soccer field, complete with its own clean water supply. Without them, I’d have been as helpless as that medical student I’d meet later in Haiti.</p>
<p>Such skills and attributes can be learned on the job, and many Canadians have already learned them though international experience. We need to do much more to prepare ourselves for increasingly frequent <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/health-promotion/environmental-public-health-climate-change/climate-change-public-health-factsheets-floods.html">domestic disasters</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3488-4">emergencies</a> by identifying, organizing, improving and utilizing the resources we already have.</p>
<p>I have had the opportunity to serve in many international humanitarian crises, and I learn from each one. I learn from other people who do this work and the attributes that make them successful, whether through the <a href="https://www.redcross.ca/">Red Cross</a>, <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.ca/">Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders</a> or other NGOs that respond to the world’s disasters.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476644/original/file-20220729-5168-uyyv4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A street scene with billowing smoke in the background and a firefighter in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476644/original/file-20220729-5168-uyyv4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476644/original/file-20220729-5168-uyyv4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476644/original/file-20220729-5168-uyyv4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476644/original/file-20220729-5168-uyyv4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476644/original/file-20220729-5168-uyyv4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476644/original/file-20220729-5168-uyyv4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476644/original/file-20220729-5168-uyyv4z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smoke rises from railway cars that were carrying crude oil after derailing in downtown Lac-Mégantic, Que. in July 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They have learned to be relentlessly practical, endlessly adaptive and resilient, and to see themselves as individual parts of highly integrated, efficient and well-organized teams, ready to work as soon as they land.</p>
<p>Once a response transitions from emergency to recovery, we all return to our “day” jobs across Canada and around the world. In my case, that’s serving as a family physician in Hamilton and teaching at McMaster University’s Department of Family Medicine and Michael G. DeGroote School of Medicine. Since the next call could come at any time, I think about what we’ve learned and how we can use these lessons.</p>
<h2>Disasters at home</h2>
<p>We are very fortunate to live where we do, in relative prosperity, peace and safety, but recent history has proven disasters do happen here.</p>
<p>Think of the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/lac-megantic-rail-disaster">train derailment and fire in Lac-Mégantic</a>, prolonged wildfires in <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-2021-timeline-1.6197751">western and northern Canada</a>, or <a href="https://www.aptnnews.ca/national-news/extreme-flooding-causes-evacuation-orders-for-first-nations-in-b-c/">flooding around Hudson Bay</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/calgary/2018/04/23/many-millions-of-dollars-southern-alberta-begins-to-tally-flood-damage.html">elsewhere</a>. </p>
<p>Consider the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and the <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-canadas-hospital-capacity-was-so-easily-overwhelmed-by-the-covid-pandemic">strain on Canadian hospitals</a>, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1503%2Fcmaj.1095856">shortages of equipment</a> and personnel and the <a href="https://search.bvsalud.org/global-literature-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov/resource/en/covidwho-1232817">logistical challenges</a> of moving tests, personal protective equipment and vaccines to where they were needed.</p>
<p>Our various levels of government did their best to respond to the pandemic, but their responses may have been faster and better if they’d made use of people who had worked through similar crises abroad.</p>
<p>Our experts go out into the world and gain incredible experience, then go back to their regular jobs, as doctors, nurses, logistics planners, engineers, security experts or water engineers. As a country, we don’t do enough to catalogue their skills and experiences so we can be ready when the time comes here — as it has, and as it surely will again.</p>
<h2>Abundant expertise and experience</h2>
<p>Some colleagues and I recently <a href="https://doi.org/10.9778/cmajo.20210127">published a paper in the <em>Canadian Medical Association Journal Open</em></a> describing how lessons from the field can help in Canada. Our paper was based on interviews with people who had been deployed on multiple international crisis missions — some of them dozens of times.</p>
<p>The results showed how international deployment had acted as a real-life training setting by helping clinicians and team members acquire or refine specific skills, including agile decision-making, communication and collaboration during high-stress situations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A gymnasium filled with cots and folding chairs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476645/original/file-20220729-5473-5dvq9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476645/original/file-20220729-5473-5dvq9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476645/original/file-20220729-5473-5dvq9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476645/original/file-20220729-5473-5dvq9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476645/original/file-20220729-5473-5dvq9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476645/original/file-20220729-5473-5dvq9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476645/original/file-20220729-5473-5dvq9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cots litter the gym floor at a reception centre set up for evacuees from Fort McMurray, Alta when the city was evacuated during a wildfire in 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Greg Halinda</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The research participants noted that being part of a disaster response team puts an individual in a very challenging environment where it is crucial to learn attributes like assessing complex situations quickly and reaching well-considered decisions. Experiencing broken infrastructure, limited resources and chaotic environments in disaster settings taught the participants to be “able to think outside the box.”</p>
<p>The participants said that understanding the aims and context of the local community is important for dealing with the challenges of the work and addressing problems effectively. They emphasized the importance of cultural sensitivity during international deployments, including learning about and accepting other cultures, countries and languages. They noted that when responding to a disaster or emergency, engaging and truly partnering with the local community ensures an effective, culturally appropriate and sustainable response.</p>
<p>That kind of learning is highly valuable, and we should be feeding this spark.</p>
<p>The main lesson is this: Canada has abundant expertise and experience here at home, but we don’t use it well — perhaps because we simply don’t know what we have.</p>
<p>Before the next domestic disaster, it would be ideal for governments to create, maintain and use a central bank of expertise and contacts related to humanitarian and disaster response, featuring people who have learned to work quickly, pragmatically and, above all, in teams.</p>
<p>Canadians are good in disasters. I have seen it.</p>
<p>We need to realize, especially after this pandemic, that disasters don’t only happen “over there.” Let’s put this on the front burner and improve disaster preparedness at home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr. Lynda Redwood-Campbell is affiliated with the Canadian Red Cross. She is a delegate on the Canadian Red Cross Emergency Response Unit team and deploys intermittently with the team.</span></em></p>The unique skills of Canadian health-care workers with international disaster experience could be a valuable resource during domestic emergencies.Lynda Redwood-Campbell, Professor of Family Medicine, Global health Lead, Humanitarian and disaster response expertise, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1790442022-03-22T13:26:23Z2022-03-22T13:26:23ZConcrete fuels climate change – but there’s a nature-friendly way to defend coasts from rising seas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453590/original/file-20220322-28-vmqrzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3427%2C2692&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/concrete-breakwaters-seascape-tetrapodes-protect-coastal-1042670491">Maksym Medvinskyi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Tōhoku earthquake of 2011 remains the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/thisday/mar11/tohoku-earthquake-and-tsunami/">strongest</a> in recorded Japanese history. It created a tsunami that towered <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zg9h2nb/revision/6#:%7E:text=On%2011%20March%202011%2C%20a,heights%20of%20over%2040%20metres">over 40 metres</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-013-0567-4">dismantled coastal flood defences</a> in north-eastern Japan with ease, taking the lives of around 16,000 people.</p>
<p>Japanese authorities, wanting to better protect communities in future, chose to build bigger defences. Concrete walls that span 400km and reach nearly <a href="https://www.theb1m.com/video/japans-400-kilometre-tsunami-shield">15 metres high</a> in places now line the coast to resist incoming waves and allow enough time for residents to evacuate in the event of another tsunami. </p>
<p>They were recently tested by a 7.4 magnitude earthquake, which struck off the coast of the Fukushima prefecture on March 16 2022, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/16/asia/japan-earthquake-fukushima-intl/index.html">killing at least four people</a> and injuring many more. Mercifully, the resulting tsunami was negligible compared with that of 11 years prior.</p>
<p>These sea walls will also serve as a defensive frontline against the effects of climate change. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">A recent report</a> by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that even in the best case, where the world halts warming at 1.5°C, sea levels could rise by <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/ipcc-report-2022-climate-impacts-adaptation-vulnerability">0.55 metres</a> on average globally by 2100. This could lead to crippling storm surges in many places.</p>
<p>Paradoxically, these walls which are designed to protect people from the consequences of global heating also contribute to it. We estimated the emissions involved in creating north-eastern Japan’s concrete breakwaters at around six million tonnes of CO₂ by taking into account their size and length and using <a href="https://www.istructe.org/IStructE/media/Public/TSE-Archive/2020/A-brief-guide-to-calculating-embodied-carbon.pdf">industry-standard tools</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A coastal concrete wall covered in metal railings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451378/original/file-20220310-25-sr3eox.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451378/original/file-20220310-25-sr3eox.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451378/original/file-20220310-25-sr3eox.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451378/original/file-20220310-25-sr3eox.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451378/original/file-20220310-25-sr3eox.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451378/original/file-20220310-25-sr3eox.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451378/original/file-20220310-25-sr3eox.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A reinforced coastal dike in north-eastern Japan, built following the 2011 tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ravindra Jayaratne</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So how can countries build stronger sea walls without making climate change worse? Following post-tsunami surveys of damaged breakwaters in southern Sri Lanka (2004) and north-eastern Japan (2011) with colleagues at Waseda University, and drawing from the University of East London’s low-carbon concrete research, we may have found an answer.</p>
<h2>Low-carbon concrete</h2>
<p>Concrete is the most common material for making breakwaters. Cement, the main binder in a concrete mix, is primarily made of clinker – a residue produced by firing limestone and clay in a furnace heated to 1,450°C. Creating that much heat is typically done by burning fossil fuels, emitting greenhouse gases in the process.</p>
<p>Cement making is responsible for about <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/221654/best-ways-carbon-emissions-from-cement/">7% of annual CO₂ emissions</a>. But without concrete, many of the world’s most impressive buildings and structures – such as Australia’s Sydney Opera House and the Hoover Dam in Las Vegas – wouldn’t exist. One of the biggest challenges facing the construction sector is reducing concrete’s carbon footprint while keeping the <a href="https://sustainableconcrete.org.uk/Sustainable-Concrete/What-is-Concrete/Benefits-of-concrete.aspx">benefits</a> of a cheap and durable building material.</p>
<p>One way to achieve this is by replacing cement with recycled industrial waste, such as granulated slag from steelworks and pulverised ash from coal power plants (essentially, the residue that can be scraped out of the bottom of furnaces).</p>
<p>Our newly designed <a href="https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/10.1680/jensu.21.00021">low-carbon concrete mixes</a> use both of these recycled materials. In fact, it was possible to use up to 60% steel furnace waste in the mixes without the concrete losing its compressive strength, which is crucial for ensuring the structure holds up. The resulting mixes had a 40% smaller carbon footprint than traditional concrete.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0045794916303066?via=ihub">Our designs</a> also use steel fibres akin to hairpins that can be added to the concrete mix, eliminating the need to assemble vast steel mesh grids. The costs and emissions of construction are lower as a result, and the final product is just as strong as a traditional breakwater.</p>
<h2>Working with nature</h2>
<p>Concrete breakwaters can even <a href="https://biomimicry.org/examples/#construction">stimulate biodiversity</a>. Some are textured in such a way that they <a href="https://www.sensicon.co.uk/sensicrete-nature-based-solutions/">mimic reef habitats</a>, encouraging the settlement and growth of marine plants and animals in their grooves and protruding surfaces. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451381/original/file-20220310-25-soq26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A concrete block covered in the shapes of shells and corals." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451381/original/file-20220310-25-soq26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451381/original/file-20220310-25-soq26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451381/original/file-20220310-25-soq26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451381/original/file-20220310-25-soq26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451381/original/file-20220310-25-soq26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451381/original/file-20220310-25-soq26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451381/original/file-20220310-25-soq26s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This concrete recreates the shape and texture of coral and other reef species.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sensicon</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over time, even the best-designed breakwaters will crack. Miraculously, engineers have developed self-healing concrete that uses <a href="https://www.basiliskconcrete.com/en/">microorganisms capable of producing limestone</a> to autonomously repair these structures. The idea of living organisms weaving through and repairing concrete, a material usually considered cold and lifeless, is very exciting to us. </p>
<p>There are likely to be even more sustainable concrete designs in the future, as 3D printing allows us to create more efficient patterns that use less material and produce less waste.</p>
<p>Using less to build more may worry <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-things-tsunami-vulnerable-countries-must-do-to-prepare-for-the-next-disaster-175721">coastal communities</a> which live in fear of tsunamis, as sustainable breakwaters are likely to be thinner, smaller and curved instead of straight. Yet these structures are just as strong and show that the world can adapt to the effects of climate change without making it worse.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ravindra Jayaratne receives funding from the Great Britain Sasakawa Foundation (GBSF) and Waseda University, Japan. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ali Abbas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New breakwater designs and more sustainable materials can cut the carbon cost of coastal defences by 40%.Ravindra Jayaratne, Reader in Coastal Engineering, University of East LondonAli Abbas, Associate Professor of Structural Engineering, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1755062022-02-07T16:14:00Z2022-02-07T16:14:00ZCanadian reconstruction aid to Tonga 40 years ago points the way today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444665/original/file-20220206-999-4ieinm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=452%2C9%2C2078%2C1297&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Workers for the Tonga Geological Services look at the smoke poring from the eruption site.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Tonga Geological Services/Government of Tonga)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tonga is still assessing the devastation of January’s volcanic explosion that was <a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-01-tonga-eruption-equivalent-hundreds-hiroshimas.html">hundreds of times more powerful than the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima</a>. </p>
<p>The eruption caused a tsunami that hit Tonga and outlying islands, and spurred tsunami warnings in North America. It was a reminder that the South Pacific is not as distant from us as we might think.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-tonga-volcano-cued-tsunami-warnings-for-the-north-american-pacific-coast-175407">Why the Tonga volcano cued tsunami warnings for the North American Pacific coast</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Emergency relief aid is <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/international-aid-reaches-tonga-with-clean-water-supplies-1.5751276">reaching Tonga</a>, though it’s been complicated by <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/27/earthquake-strikes-off-coast-of-tonga-days-after-volcano-eruption">a nearby earthquake</a> a few days later as well as restrictions that seek to keep the country free of COVID-19. </p>
<p>The larger challenge will be reconstruction once the attention of the world has moved on. <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/460032/tongan-eruption-85-percent-of-the-population-impacted-government">As the speaker of the national parliament said</a>: “It’s going to be a long road to recovery.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map of Tonga and outlying islands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442882/original/file-20220127-18-1dws5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442882/original/file-20220127-18-1dws5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442882/original/file-20220127-18-1dws5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442882/original/file-20220127-18-1dws5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442882/original/file-20220127-18-1dws5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442882/original/file-20220127-18-1dws5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442882/original/file-20220127-18-1dws5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of Tonga and outlying islands and where the Tonga Kitchens project did work, compiled from Google Maps.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(David Webster)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During Canada’s ongoing <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/issues_development-enjeux_developpement/idw-sdi.aspx?lang=eng">International Development Week</a>, it’s important to remember there are lessons from a similar natural disaster 40 years ago in the South Pacific. That’s when Canadians helped rebuild after cyclone Isaac, the <a href="https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/handle/10125/675">worst storm in the region in the 20th century</a>. Emergency relief arrived throughout 1982, but people in hard-hit outlying islands were still suffering a year later.</p>
<h2>Development and kitchens</h2>
<p>One desperate need was for cooking houses. Traditional societies in outlying islands use three types of structures — dwelling houses, cooking houses and bathing houses. While international agencies helped to rebuild homes, there was poor understanding of the need for cooking houses, known as <em>peito</em> (<a href="https://tradukka.com/translate/to/en/peito">kitchen in English</a>).</p>
<p>Enter a new Canadian organization: the <a href="https://pacificpeoplespartnership.org/">Pacific Peoples’ Partnership</a> (known at the time by its previous name, the South Pacific People’s Foundation). Its director, <a href="https://pacificpeoplespartnership.org/ppp-featured-partner-victoria-foundation/">Phil Esmonde</a>, an American-born veteran turned Canadian peace activist, communicated with village women’s groups in the more remote islands of Tonga and shared the need for cooking houses.</p>
<p>A year after the cyclone, Esmonde wrote in an internal document contained in the organization’s unpublished archives: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Many peitos now consist of nothing more than a fire pit under a tree or a few pieces of leftover roofing iron.” </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A woman in a colourful dress stands in front of a kitchen house with tropical trees around it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442883/original/file-20220127-14-urplgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442883/original/file-20220127-14-urplgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442883/original/file-20220127-14-urplgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442883/original/file-20220127-14-urplgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442883/original/file-20220127-14-urplgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442883/original/file-20220127-14-urplgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442883/original/file-20220127-14-urplgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A kitchen or pieto on the island of Nomuka in the South Pacific in 1983.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pacific People's Partnership archives)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Village women emphasized the need for cooking houses to store and prepare food, to eat and to allow women to gather and carry out traditional functions and work, such as weaving.</p>
<p>In other words, peitos were not just about reconstructing villages. They were about reconstructing village life and about women’s needs — aspects not normally prioritized by international
humanitarian agencies.</p>
<h2>Focus on gender, Indigenous needs</h2>
<p>In response, the <a href="http://pacificpeoplespartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/54-3-Tok-Blong-Pasifik-v54-3-2000.pdf">Pacific Peoples’ Partnership</a> launched the Tonga Kitchens project as its first full-scale development effort. It focused on issues of gender and Indigenous needs, not imported models.</p>
<p>Equally important, it paid close attention to the more remote northern islands — including many of the same islands <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/21/world/asia/tonga-tsunami-volcano.html">hit hardest</a> by January’s tsunami, <a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/UNOSAT_A3_Natural_Landscape_VO20220115TON_DamageAssessment_NomukaVillage_HaapaiDivision_18Jan2022.pdf">including Nomuka</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/19/fears-for-tongas-tiny-mango-island-as-every-house-destroyed">and Mango</a>, where every house was destroyed following the eruption.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of an island with white sand atolls and turquoise waters around it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444657/original/file-20220206-19-ga2zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/444657/original/file-20220206-19-ga2zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444657/original/file-20220206-19-ga2zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444657/original/file-20220206-19-ga2zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444657/original/file-20220206-19-ga2zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444657/original/file-20220206-19-ga2zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/444657/original/file-20220206-19-ga2zd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Tongan island of Mango is seen in this 2013 photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Scott Mills)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Delving into the <a href="https://pacificpeoplespartnership.org/45-moments-over-45-years-celebrating-the-45th-anniversary-of-pacific-peoples-partnership/">Pacific Peoples’ Partnership’s archives</a> unearths stories about close ties between Canada and the Pacific islands. The organization was founded in 1975 as an offshoot of the United States-based Foundation for the South Pacific, the brainchild of Australian actor <a href="https://www.ilctr.org/entrepreneur-hof/elizabeth-silverstein/">Elizabeth (Betty) Silverstein</a> and her husband, American studio executive Maurice (Red) Silverstein.</p>
<p>The Canadian organization increased its impact through grants from the British Columbia government. Under NDP Premier Dave Barrett, B.C. created an innovative fund to match aid money raised by B.C.-based non-governmental organizations.</p>
<h2>Matching fundraising dollars</h2>
<p>The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) was at the time also willing to match fundraising as part of its emphasis on <a href="https://press.ucalgary.ca/books/9781773850405/">working closely with civil society</a> both in Canada and overseas.</p>
<p>CIDA funding for development education within Canada allowed the Pacific People’s Partnership to <a href="https://pacificpeoplespartnership.org/45-moments-over-45-years-celebrating-the-45th-anniversary-of-pacific-peoples-partnership/">host Tongan artist Sinisia Taumoepeau</a>, who strengthened the organization’s existing ties with local women’s development groups in Tonga in the early 1980s. </p>
<p>She was part of the Tonga Kitchens project, in which the Pacific People’s Partnership sent $40,000 (more than $100,000 in today’s money) to help rebuild hundreds of peitos. Islanders did all the work, contributing 80 per cent of the project’s value. As the organization’s archives say: “The project was truly theirs.”</p>
<p>CIDA’s emphasis at the time on integrating women in development made the Pacific People’s Partnership’s work with Tongan women attractive in Ottawa. The partnership has retained that emphasis, with Tonga’s <a href="https://pacificpeoplespartnership.org/international/women-and-children-crisis-centre-tonga/">Women and Children Crisis Centre</a> now a major partner. </p>
<p>The crisis centre stresses the Indigenous Tongan method of <em>talanoa</em> (talking informally) to provide mental health and other services. Its founder is feminist researcher <a href="https://www.spc.int/ofa-guttenbeil-likiliki">ʻOfa Guttenbeil-Likiliki</a>, a leading thinker in building <a href="https://iwda.org.au/resource/creating-equitable-south-north-partnerships/">equitable north-south partnerships</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1489321153214693385"}"></div></p>
<h2>Aid now less effective</h2>
<p>The Canadian government, however, later abandoned its earlier emphasis on civil society, women in development, development education and on the highly effective matching grants collaboration with Canadian civil society organizations.</p>
<p>It substituted corporate-driven and bureaucratic strategies such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12454">pairing non-governmental organizations with Canadian mining companies</a> or <a href="https://www.foreignpolicy.ca/new-page-5">promoting structural adjustments</a> — shifts that have often made Canadian aid <a href="https://www.mqup.ca/struggling-for-effectiveness-products-9780773540576.php">less effective</a>. </p>
<p>Only in recent years has Ottawa rediscovered ideas like “<a href="https://cooperation.ca/global-affairs-canada-cso-partnership-policy/">civil society partnerships</a>” and a “<a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/issues_development-enjeux_developpement/priorities-priorites/policy-politique.aspx?lang=eng">feminist international assistance policy</a>.”</p>
<p>That’s a positive development, but we also need to <a href="https://devhistory.wordpress.com/">recover the historical memory of Canadian development assistance</a> and craft effective strategies on civil society and feminist aid as the <a href="https://aidhistory.ca/">Canadian Network on Humanitarian History</a> does. The Tonga Kitchens project shows the needs have remained constant over the decades, including after the latest eruption.</p>
<p>We should also learn from the sustained engagement of groups like the Pacific Peoples’ Partnership rather than rely on short-term contracts and project-based approaches. Canada’s government seems to create a new aid strategy every few years, then celebrates it. Instead, it should reckon honestly with its past and current aid record.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/neither-hero-nor-villain-canada-stuck-in-the-middle-of-the-pack-on-international-aid-124452">Neither hero nor villain: Canada stuck in the middle of the pack on international aid</a>
</strong>
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<hr>
<p>A further lesson is that initiatives should be informed by the affected community. Tongans know their needs better than foreign visitors. Aid needs to be reframed as solidarity, not as benevolence. In other words, Canada needs to <a href="https://ecosociete.org/livres/perdre-le-sud">decolonize its aid</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, when disasters strike, Canadians need to remember that reconstruction takes years. To be effective, it should focus on the expressed needs of local people, especially voices that can become marginalized — those of remote Indigenous peoples and village-based women. </p>
<p>Work such as the Tonga Kitchens project not only delivers concrete help, it also “strengthens and solidifies the efforts of grass roots women’s groups, and affirms their organization,” as one archival Pacific People’s Partnership report noted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Webster receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is a fellow of the Canadian Foreign Policy Institute and a member of the Canadian Network on Humanitarian History.</span></em></p>In 1983, a Canadian group helped rebuild traditional cooking houses in Tonga in the aftermath of a devastating cyclone. The Tonga Kitchens project offers lessons for Canadian aid today.David Webster, Professor, History & Global Studies, Bishop's UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1757212022-01-27T13:09:07Z2022-01-27T13:09:07ZFour things tsunami-vulnerable countries must do to prepare for the next disaster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442736/original/file-20220126-21-v9wr7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5863%2C3902&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Vi / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The eruption of an underwater volcano and subsequent tsunami that hit Tonga on January 16, was one of the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-60106981">most violent natural disasters</a> in decades. While this event had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tonga-struggles-with-ash-psychological-trauma-after-eruption-tsunami-2022-01-23/">catastrophic consequences</a>, such incidents are relatively common as volcanoes are naturally unstable, unpredictable and exist throughout the world.</p>
<p>I have spent most of my career conducting post-disaster field research, improving coastal defences and supporting people to become more resilient to tsunamis and less anxious about the risk. The challenge facing countries in these naturally vulnerable parts of the world is to adapt and educate their citizens to take their own safety actions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing areas of the world at risk from tsunamis." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Sketch of global tsunami hazard (as of May 2009).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://reliefweb.int/map/world/world-sketch-global-tsunami-hazard-may-2009">UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction</a></span>
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<p>Here I have outlined four things that vulnerable countries must urgently do to mitigate the consequences of tsunamis:</p>
<h2>1. Educate people to be more resilient</h2>
<p>Education is one of the most effective defences. Regardless of the size of the wave or strength of seawalls, people are much more likely to survive a tsunami if they know exactly how to react once an alert is triggered. Vulnerable countries must therefore urgently create an educated, close-knit community that is aware that they are exposed to the risk and accept it as an aspect of their life and culture.</p>
<p>I conducted focus group meetings with people, businesses and communities in Indonesia <a href="https://theconversation.com/krakatoa-is-still-active-and-we-are-not-ready-for-the-tsunamis-another-eruption-would-generate-147250">after the Anak Krakatoa tsunami in 2018</a>. In these groups, we established designated high ground areas and clear signage directing people to these safe zones. Evacuation events, such as mock tsunami drills, must be practised regularly so that people are familiar with safe areas and know where to go in the instance of a real tsunami.</p>
<p>In Tonga specifically, where a third of the population is under the age of 15, tsunami safety must be taught at both primary and secondary school levels. Familiarising their young population with tsunamis, as well as other natural hazards such as <a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/disasterfacts.pdf">cyclones and earthquakes</a>, will create a more resilient and less anxious adult population.</p>
<h2>2. Create effective early warning systems</h2>
<p>A decrease in ocean water surface levels is a clear sign that a tsunami is about to hit. Vulnerable countries must create early warning systems using satellites, drones and tide gauges to measure the vertical rise or fall of water to identify tsunamis before they happen. </p>
<p>In light of the tsunami in Tonga, it would also help to place equipment such as <a href="https://www.whoi.edu/what-we-do/explore/instruments/instruments-sensors-samplers/conductivity-temperature-depth-ctd-sensors/">conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD)</a> instruments, seismometers and thermal cameras near underwater volcanoes, while also observing the waters above with satellites. Buoys that measure the height and direction of waves can also be placed out at sea. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A yellow buoy in the ocean" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A tsunami detection buoy off the coast of Thailand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Mariner 4291 / shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>When water levels are triggered, tsunami alert messages are sent out, giving people enough time to escape the impact zones. I experienced this myself while conducting fieldwork in a small town on the southern coast of Japan in 2018. There was <a href="https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20181102/p2a/00m/0na/018000c">an earthquake</a> during my stay and before the ground had even stopped shaking my colleague received a text alert from the regional government with instructions. I grabbed my passport and prepared to go towards a nearby hill if he received a follow up “red alert” text – fortunately, that particular earthquake did not cause a tsunami, and we were able to stay where we were.</p>
<h2>3. Establish a strong coastal defence scheme</h2>
<p>Tsunami-vulnerable countries must urgently create strong coastal defence schemes of offshore breakwaters, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2018/mar/09/after-the-tsunami-japan-sea-walls-in-pictures">tsunami walls</a> and flood levees. Tsunami waves hit hard, so ideally these foundations will be made of reinforced concrete to avoid erosion. Natural protections like <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/news/2006/12/15/living-coral-reefs-provide-better-protection-tsunami-waves">coral reefs</a> could be strengthened with nature-based solutions such as rock armour or heavy sandbags, which will lower the cost for developing countries.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man walks along concrete wall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A new coastal dyke in the city of Sendai, Japan, built after the 2011 tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ravindra Jayaratne</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Critical infrastructure like power plants, densely populated communities and tourist hotspots must be built on higher ground, where possible. A good example of this comes from Miyagi and Iwate prefectures, Japan, which were badly hit by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami (the one which caused a nuclear disaster in neighbouring Fukushima). Some towns were <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japan-tsunami-2011-fukushima-rebuilt-city-rikuzen-takata-residents-still-scared/">rebuilt on elevated ground</a> that had been filled in with compacted soil. </p>
<p>If space is available, coastal forests with tall trees could be planted between communities and the beach to <a href="https://www.naturebasedsolutionsinitiative.org/publications/vegetation-bioshields-for-tsunami-mitigation-review-of-effectiveness-limitations-construction-and-sustainable-management/">act as a buffer zone</a>, limiting the impact of waves and reducing flooding, while also improving the local ecosystem. </p>
<p>These defences may damage the tourist-friendly aesthetic of white sandy beaches, but they could save lives.</p>
<h2>4. Form a regional approach to tsunamis</h2>
<p>The effects of the underwater volcano eruption and tsunami in Tonga were felt around the Pacific in Australia, New Zealand, Japan and America. These vulnerable countries must implement a regional approach to defending and responding to tsunamis.</p>
<p>Aid must be given before tsunamis hit, not just after. This can be done through sharing data, expertise, research facilities and equipment. It is vitally important that this information is specifically given to developing countries to help strengthen their own defences.</p>
<p>The underwater volcano near Tonga is active. And even if the recent eruption was a one in 1,000 year event, there is still a strong chance that it will erupt again since geological deposits show that major eruptions like this one tend to involve a <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-the-tonga-eruption-was-so-violent-and-what-to-expect-next/">series of many individual explosive events</a>. </p>
<p>Countries that are threatened by tsunamis can’t prevent these natural disasters from happening, but they can adapt to be better prepared for when they do. Foreign aid will be vital for Tonga to recover from this horrific incident. However, education and collaboration will be its most important defence in the longer term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175721/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ravindra Jayaratne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We can’t prevent natural disasters from happening, but we can be better prepared for when they do.Ravindra Jayaratne, Reader in Coastal Engineering, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1754072022-01-23T13:45:22Z2022-01-23T13:45:22ZWhy the Tonga volcano cued tsunami warnings for the North American Pacific coast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442034/original/file-20220121-17-1okcqhy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C4000%2C2646&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Beachgoers watch waters rise during a tsunami advisory on a beach in Santa Cruz, Calif.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Nic Coury) </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 15, a tsunami warning went out to residents of British Columbia and the west coast of the United States. The warning was issued <a href="https://www.emergencyinfobc.gov.bc.ca/tsunami-advisory-bc-jan15/">after the eruption of the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcano in Tonga</a> in the Southwest Pacific.</p>
<p>Tsunami literally means “<a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1162">harbour wave</a>” in Japanese — a tsunami comprises a series of waves separated by 10 to 60 minutes. While wind waves reach a maximum height and later crash, a tsunami wave is a massive water mass moving with great height and speed, bringing debris and boulders from the bottom of the ocean with it. The force of this water wall can have enough force to knock down an adult, move cars and destroy buildings that aren’t tsunami-proof.</p>
<p>Tsunamis are generated when great masses of water move suddenly and with great force, such as the seafloor elevating quickly, as in an earthquake, landslide or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0822-8">volcanic eruption</a>. Ten years ago, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0775-1">an earthquake in Haida Gwaii, B.C.</a>, resulted in <a href="https://www.earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/recent/2012/20121028.0304/index-en.php">the evacuation of areas as far away as Hawaii due to the threat of a tsunami</a>.</p>
<h2>Tonga eruption</h2>
<p>The massive underwater eruption of the <a href="https://apogeospatial.com/the-story-of-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai-island-in-the-kingdom-of-tonga/">volcanic island Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai</a> contained a level of force only seen once every 1,000 years, creating the conditions for a tsunami that could travel across the Pacific Ocean.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-volcanic-eruption-in-tonga-was-so-violent-and-what-to-expect-next-175035">Why the volcanic eruption in Tonga was so violent, and what to expect next</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/mid-atlantic-ridge-volcanic-processes/">There are many underwater volcanoes, that constantly erupt, such as those in the mid-Atlantic ridge</a>. Most volcanic eruptions near or underwater generate waves only noticeable to measuring instruments. </p>
<p>What made the eruption in Tonga different? Usually, magma is released from these volcanoes slowly, which allows the water to provide insulation and cool the outer surface of the magma. And although the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai has had other eruptions in the past decades, these haven’t reached the level of explosivity and energy this one presented. <a href="https://eos.org/science-updates/new-volcanic-island-unveils-explosive-past">Past eruptions in 2014 and 2009 were related to the sides of the volcano</a>, while this 2022 eruption most likely was the the “centre” of the volcano — the caldera — collapsing.</p>
<h2>Travelling waves</h2>
<p>Tsunami alerts may be issued even if the eruption or earthquake occurs on the other side of the world. The waves produced by an earthquake or eruption in this case may <a href="http://www.tulane.edu/%7Esanelson/Natural_Disasters/tsunami.htm">travel through the ocean with a speed of roughly 890 km/hr</a> (assuming an average ocean depth of six kilometres). For comparison, that is <a href="https://modernairliners.com/boeing-787-dreamliner/boeing-787-dreamliner-specs/">the same speed of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner on a transcontinental flight</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1482449815019659269"}"></div></p>
<p>On the open sea, the waves are fast but their height is hardly distinguishable. When approaching shallower waters near the coasts, the speed of the wave decreases, but its height increases. Changing depths of the ocean floor allow the crests of the waves to increase in energy and height as they get closer to the coast. This is why tsunamis are so hazardous at the coasts — a wall of water moving towards the coast can quickly reach heights from tens of centimetres to tens of metres. One of the highest heights recorded was in 2011, <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/day-2011-japan-earthquake-and-tsunami">when a tsunami wave reached 40 metres high in Japan</a>.</p>
<p>In the case of the waves generated by the eruption in Tonga, some coasts were hit with waves that were <a href="http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/station.php?code=hilo">one metre high in Hilo, Hawaii</a>, and <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/01/16/national/japan-tsunami-tonga-volcano/">up to two metres in Japan</a>, where conditions allow for waves to reflect. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CYxAbpsvS80/?utm_source=ig_embed\u0026ig_rid=af50925c-7984-4a1c-a3f2-d62d6947531f","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>For people 9,000 kilometres away from an eruption — like the west coast of continental North America — there is plenty of time to send alerts and prepare. On Vancouver Island and Haida Gwaii, authorities requested that people stay in place and not head to the shores. Tsunami waves may not always occur with great force, but shallow coastlines may flood.</p>
<p>With the threat of tsunamis on the B.C. coast produced by the Tonga explosion, authorities had time to prepare and notify residents. But unlike volcanic explosions, earthquakes are far more difficult to forecast, and often do not provide advance notice.</p>
<h2>Tsunami preparation</h2>
<p>Tsunami alerts activate an emergency response, and when the threat is not realized, it produces an opportunity to assess how people respond in advance of potentially more devastating events, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/haida-gwaii-earthquake-tsunami-evacuation-1.5745739">like a closer eruption or a significant earthquake</a>.</p>
<p>While B.C.’s tsunami advisory was lifted, tsunamogenic earthquakes — those that may result in tsunamis — are a threat in locations <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/article/plate-tectonics-ring-fire/">situated on the Ring of Fire, around the coasts of the Pacific Ocean</a>.</p>
<p>For people living on coastal areas at risk of tsunamis, the B.C. government recommends that they <a href="https://www.emergencyinfobc.gov.bc.ca/resources/">stay away from the shoreline during advisories and follow any emergency instructions</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175407/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cindy Mora-Stock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tsunamis can be generated by underwater volcanic explosions thousands of miles away. The Jan. 15 explosion in Tonga resulted in tsunami advisories for British Columbia and all along the U.S. west coast.Cindy Mora-Stock, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Earth Science Department and Statistics and Actuarial Sciences Department, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1752132022-01-19T13:45:12Z2022-01-19T13:45:12ZWhat causes a tsunami? An ocean scientist explains the physics of these destructive waves<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441419/original/file-20220118-13-7mtrbf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=132%2C101%2C5052%2C3357&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">On Jan. 15, 2022, coastal areas across California were placed under a tsunami warning. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sign-reading-tsunami-hazard-zone-and-with-a-graphic-of-a-news-photo/1341481367?adppopup=true">Gado via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano in Tonga erupted, sending a tsunami racing across the Pacific Ocean in all directions.</p>
<p>As word of the eruption spread, government agencies on surrounding islands and in places as far away as New Zealand, Japan and even the U.S. West Coast issued tsunami warnings. Only about 12 hours after the initial eruption, tsunami waves a few feet tall <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/15/asia/tsunami-warning-tonga-volcano-intl-hnk/index.html">hit California shorelines</a> – more than 5,000 miles away from the eruption.</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kAGkuGgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">physical oceanographer</a> who studies waves and turbulent mixing in the ocean. Tsunamis are one of my favorite topics to teach my students because the physics of how they move through oceans is so simple and elegant.</p>
<p>Waves that are a few feet tall hitting a beach in California might not sound like the destructive waves the term calls to mind, nor what you see in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhdSbCUn-oE">footage of tragic tsunamis from the past</a>. But tsunamis are not normal waves, no matter the size. So how are tsunamis different from other ocean waves? What generates them? How do they travel so fast? And why are they so destructive?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441389/original/file-20220118-17-1wdrep5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A satellite view a large ash cloud and shockwave." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441389/original/file-20220118-17-1wdrep5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441389/original/file-20220118-17-1wdrep5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441389/original/file-20220118-17-1wdrep5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441389/original/file-20220118-17-1wdrep5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441389/original/file-20220118-17-1wdrep5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441389/original/file-20220118-17-1wdrep5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441389/original/file-20220118-17-1wdrep5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano erupted, it launched ash into the atmosphere, created a powerful shock wave and displaced a huge amount of water, generating a tsunami that raced across the ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tonga_Volcano_Eruption_2022-01-15_0410Z_to_0550Z.gif#/media/File:Tonga_Volcano_Eruption_2022-01-15_0410Z_to_0550Z.gif">Japan Meteorological Agency via WikimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Deep displacement</h2>
<p>Most waves are <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-makes-the-worlds-biggest-surfable-waves-150600">generated by wind</a> as it blows over the ocean’s surface, transferring energy to and displacing the water. This process creates the waves you see at the beach every day. </p>
<p>Tsunamis are created by an entirely different mechanism. When an underwater earthquake, volcanic eruption or landslide displaces a large amount of water, that energy has to go somewhere – so it generates a series of waves. Unlike wind-driven waves where the energy is confined to the upper layer of the ocean, the energy in a series of tsunami waves extends throughout the entire depth of the ocean. Additionally, a lot more water is displaced than in a wind-driven wave. </p>
<p>Imagine the difference in the waves that are created if you were to blow on the surface of a swimming pool compared to the waves that are created when someone jumps in with a big cannonball dive. The cannonball dive displaces a lot more water than blowing on the surface, so it creates a much bigger set of waves.</p>
<p>Earthquakes can easily move huge amounts of water and cause dangerous tsunamis. Same with large undersea landslides. In the case of the Tonga tsunami, the massive explosion of the volcano displaced the water. Some scientists are speculating that the eruption <a href="https://youtu.be/B54HbfqDbK4">also caused an undersea landslide</a> that contributed to the large amount of displaced water. Future research will help confirm whether this is true or not. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/etVdMBjAVm0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This simulation from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows how tsunami waves propagated away from an earthquake that occurred about 600 miles from Tonga in 2021.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Tsunami waves travel fast</h2>
<p>No matter the cause of a tsunami, after the water is displaced, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL3BDBAAAA7D4EB2DA">waves propagate outward</a> in all directions – similarly to when a stone is thrown into a serene pond. </p>
<p>Because the energy in tsunami waves reaches all the way to the bottom of the ocean, the depth of the sea floor is the primary factor that determines how fast they move. Calculating the speed of a tsunami is actually quite simple. You just multiply the depth of the ocean – 13,000 feet (4,000 meters) on average – by gravity and take the square root. Doing this, you get an average speed of about 440 miles per hour (700 kilometers per hour). This is much faster than the speed of typical waves, which can <a href="https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/fast-swell-travel/87799">range from about 10 to 30 mph</a> (15 to 50 kph).</p>
<p>This equation is what oceanographers use to estimate when a tsunami will reach faraway shores. The tsunami on Jan. 15 hit Santa Cruz, California, 12 hours and 12 minutes after the initial eruption in Tonga. Santa Cruz is 5,280 miles (8,528 kilometers) from Tonga, which means that the tsunami traveled at 433 mph (697 kph) – nearly identical to the speed estimate calculated using the ocean’s average depth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441392/original/file-20220118-17-oocmnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A flooded airport runway covered in debris." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441392/original/file-20220118-17-oocmnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441392/original/file-20220118-17-oocmnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441392/original/file-20220118-17-oocmnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441392/original/file-20220118-17-oocmnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441392/original/file-20220118-17-oocmnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441392/original/file-20220118-17-oocmnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441392/original/file-20220118-17-oocmnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many tsunamis, including the 2011 Tsunami in Japan, move inland and can flood areas far from the coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SendaiAirportMarch16.jpg#/media/File:SendaiAirportMarch16.jpg">U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Samuel Morse via WikimediaCommons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Destruction on land</h2>
<p>Tsunamis are rare compared to ubiquitous wind-driven waves, but they are often much more destructive. The <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Indian-Ocean-tsunami-of-2004">2004 Indian Ocean tsunami</a> killed 225,000 people. <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2188%2Fjea.JE20120114">More than 20,000 lost their lives</a> in the 2011 Japan tsunami.</p>
<p>What makes tsunamis so much more destructive than normal waves?</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441394/original/file-20220118-19-v4uwmj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An animation showing waves approaching a shoreline." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441394/original/file-20220118-19-v4uwmj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441394/original/file-20220118-19-v4uwmj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441394/original/file-20220118-19-v4uwmj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441394/original/file-20220118-19-v4uwmj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441394/original/file-20220118-19-v4uwmj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441394/original/file-20220118-19-v4uwmj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441394/original/file-20220118-19-v4uwmj.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As waves approach shore, they get pushed upward by the rising seafloor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Propagation_du_tsunami_en_profondeur_variable.gif#/media/File:Propagation_du_tsunami_en_profondeur_variable.gif">Régis Lachaume via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the open ocean, tsunami waves can be small and may even be undetectable by a boat at the surface. But as the tsunami approaches land, the ocean gets progressively shallower and all the wave energy that extended thousands of feet to the bottom of the deep ocean gets compressed. The displaced water needs to go somewhere. The only place to go is up, so the waves get taller and taller as they approach shore.</p>
<p>When tsunamis get to shore, they often do not crest and break like a typical ocean wave. Instead, they are more like a large wall of water that can inundate land near the coast. It is as if sea level were to suddenly rise by a few feet or more. This can cause <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/science/tsunamis-and-tsunami-hazards">flooding and very strong currents</a> that can easily sweep people, cars and buildings away.</p>
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<p>Luckily, tsunamis are rare and not nearly as much of a surprise as they once were. There is now an extensive array of bottom pressure sensors, called <a href="https://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/Dart/">DART buoys</a>, that can sense a tsunami wave and allow government agencies to <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/us-tsunami-warning-system">send warnings</a> prior to the arrival of the tsunami.</p>
<p>If you live near a coast – especially on the Pacific Ocean where the vast majority of tsunamis occur – be sure to <a href="https://www.ready.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/tsunami-information-sheet.pdf">know your tsunami escape route</a> for getting to higher ground, and listen to tsunami warnings if you receive one. </p>
<p>The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano severed the main communication cable that connects the people of Tonga to the rest of the world. While the science of tsunamis can be fascinating, these are serious natural disasters. Only a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60039617">few deaths have been reported</a> so far from Tonga, but many people are missing and the true extent of the damage from the tsunami is still unknown.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175213/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sally Warner has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research.</span></em></p>Tsunamis aren’t just bigger-than-average waves. Triggered by undersea earthquakes or volcanic eruptions like the one in Tonga, they are fast, massive and potentially destructive. Here’s why.Sally Warner, Assistant Professor of Climate Science, Brandeis UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1750562022-01-17T06:26:16Z2022-01-17T06:26:16ZWaves from the Tonga tsunami are still being felt in Australia – and even a 50cm surge could knock you off your feet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441010/original/file-20220117-23-13p0q4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5420%2C3605&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca De Marchi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The eruption of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-volcanic-eruption-in-tonga-was-so-violent-and-what-to-expect-next-175035">underwater volcano</a> Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai created a tsunami felt across the Pacific Ocean. This includes Australia, where small but measurable tsunami waves were still being recorded as late as Monday afternoon. These may even persist into Tuesday morning.</p>
<p>The sea level gauge at Nuku’alofa, Tonga, recorded a tsunami wave of 1.19 metres before it stopped reporting. The waves that subsequently arrived at the Australian coast were comparable to some of the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/history/index.shtml">biggest tsunami waves</a> recorded here, including those generated by the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Chile-earthquake-of-1960">southern Chile earthquake</a> in 1960 – one of the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/20-largest-earthquakes-world">largest</a> on record. </p>
<p>The Tongan volcanic eruption generated waves of 82cm at the Gold Coast. In southern coastal New South Wales, the tsunami waves reached 65cm at Port Kembla and 77cm at Eden’s Twofold Bay.</p>
<p>Australians tend to be fairly relaxed about tsunami risk. But this latest event demonstrates Australia is vulnerable to tsunamis, and that warnings from authorities to stay away from foreshore areas should not be ignored.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1482455240104640512"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why are tsunami waves different?</h2>
<p>Where everyday ocean waves are caused by wind, tsunamis are <a href="https://youtu.be/AXHN14IHtLY*">caused by</a> the large-scale vertical displacement of the water column. </p>
<p>The biggest cause of tsunamis is <a href="https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml">underwater earthquakes</a>. Underwater volcanoes are a far less common cause, as the graph below shows.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/163Kg/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="500"></iframe>
<p>A tsunami wave of, say, 50cm might not sound that big. But it’s entirely different to the normal waves arriving at our coastline everyday. Those normal waves might take 5-15 seconds to come onshore and flow back out. A single tsunami wave can last minutes or more than an hour.</p>
<p>Let’s look at data from tide levels in Sydney on Saturday night. The tsunami off Tonga <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-16/how-the-volcanic-eruption-near-tonga-unfolded/100759528">occurred</a> at 3.10pm AEDT, and waves first arrived in Sydney just after 6pm.</p>
<p>Between 8.17pm and 9.08pm, two peaks in the tsunami waves <a href="https://twitter.com/DrHannahPower/status/1482959364713750530">were recorded</a>. Each wave lasted almost 30 minutes – 15 minutes while the water went onshore, and 15 minutes while it went offshore. </p>
<p>And as late as Monday afternoon, <a href="https://twitter.com/DrHannahPower/status/1482939279928344578">hour-long tsunami waves</a> were being recorded at Batemans Bay in NSW. </p>
<p>At some places along the Australian coast, these waves were 50cm high and the water was pushing onshore for 15 to 30 minutes. That is really different to a normal 50cm wave. </p>
<p>If you were standing on the beach in Australia observing the tsunami, it would look like the tide was coming in really fast. Half a metre of tidal change would normally take 90 minutes or more – here we’re talking about that happening six times faster.</p>
<p>The below controlled experiment conducted in Japan shows how a human can struggle to stand in a strong, rapid flow of knee high water, similar to that which would occur during a tsunami:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1482371553392160773"}"></div></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-waves-the-tsunami-risk-in-australia-60623">Making waves: the tsunami risk in Australia</a>
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<h2>Tsunami waves are unpredictable</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.msq.qld.gov.au/Tides/Sea-level-measurement-in-Queensland">Tide gauges</a> up and down the coast, which usually measure everyday water levels, can also be used to determine the size of tsunami waves. These days, tide gauges usually operate using acoustic or pressure sensors. </p>
<p>To measure a tsunami wave, we take out the tide level and the short oscillations which represent normal waves so we’re only left with the waves from the tsunami. </p>
<p>Tsunami waves typically arrive in a series which lasts for 12 to 24 hours, and the first wave is not always the biggest. </p>
<p>I’m on holidays at the beach at the moment. I spoke to a few people on Sunday who had been for a morning swim because they thought the tsunami had passed – but it hadn’t. In some places in Australia, the biggest tsunami waves were observed <a href="https://twitter.com/DrHannahPower/status/1482593959100968961">after 10am</a> on Sunday – more than 12 hours after the first recorded impacts.</p>
<p>A tsunami wave does not behave in a linear fashion. It radiates out across the ocean and interacts with the continents and coastlines, as well as the features of the seabed such as sea mounts and underwater ridges. Tsunami waves also travel faster in deep water than shallow water. All these factors interact to cause the waves to bounce around in complex ways.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="broken dock with man and boats" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441006/original/file-20220117-19-159sk9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441006/original/file-20220117-19-159sk9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441006/original/file-20220117-19-159sk9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441006/original/file-20220117-19-159sk9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441006/original/file-20220117-19-159sk9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441006/original/file-20220117-19-159sk9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441006/original/file-20220117-19-159sk9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Tonga tsunami was felt in New Zealand where it tore apart a dock at a marina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tanya White AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before communications to Tonga were lost, video reports showed significant tsunami wave flooding and inundation which damaged roads, buildings, and infrastructure such as seawalls.</p>
<p>As well as affecting Australia, tsunami waves also travelled across the whole Pacific Ocean to Fiji, the Cook Islands, New Caledonia, New Zealand, along both the North and South American coastlines and to Japan. Some of these places reported flooding and localised inundation.</p>
<p>Fortunately, Australia didn’t experience significant inundation due to this tsunami. The effect was most visible in estuaries, which don’t feature swell or wind waves that to bystanders can mask the signal of the tsunami.</p>
<p>Tsunamis can cause cause significant erosion, especially in estuaries when water is flowing in and out very quickly. Following the 1960 Chile earthquake, for example, the Sydney suburb of Clontarf experienced significant erosion.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-a-tsunami-could-hit-sydney-causing-flooding-and-dangerous-currents-103348">Yes, a tsunami could hit Sydney – causing flooding and dangerous currents</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clontarf beach erosion: (Left) 2014 in usual sediment conditions and (right) 1960 post tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Northern Beaches Council holdings</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Don’t ignore the risks</h2>
<p>Australians tend to be fairly complacent about tsunamis because we don’t have a large localised <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-waves-the-tsunami-risk-in-australia-60623">risk</a>. In contrast, places like New Zealand are more highly attuned to the dangers because the country is close to plate tectonic boundaries – part of the outer rocky crust of the Earth that could generate the large earthquakes that cause most tsunamnis.</p>
<p>But given the potential for <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-volcanic-eruption-in-tonga-was-so-violent-and-what-to-expect-next-175035">further volcanic activity</a> off Tonga, further tsunamis could be generated, and they may again reach Australia. </p>
<p>Australia is better prepared for tsunamis following the devastating 2004 Boxing Day tsunami. This includes the joint <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/about/atws.shtml">Australian Tsunami Warning System</a> run by the Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia. </p>
<p>In the event of a tsunami warning, keep a close eye on emergency alert services and follow guidance from emergency services. Certainly, during a tsunami warning is no time to go swimming or surfing.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-tonga-volcanic-eruption-has-revealed-the-vulnerabilities-in-our-global-telecommunication-system-175048">The Tonga volcanic eruption has revealed the vulnerabilities in our global telecommunication system</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175056/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Power receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the NSW State Government State Emergency Management Program, the Queensland Resilience and Risk Reduction Fund, the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment Endeavour Fund, and ship time from Australia's Marine National Facility. She is a member of the NSW Coastal Council.</span></em></p>Australians tend to be fairly relaxed about the tsunami risk. But warnings from authorities to stay away from foreshore areas should not be ignored.Hannah Power, Associate Professor in Coastal and Marine Science, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1620712021-08-06T12:40:43Z2021-08-06T12:40:43ZDinosaur bones became griffins, volcanic eruptions were gods fighting – geomythology looks to ancient stories for hints of scientific truth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414601/original/file-20210804-17-1waxsgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=350%2C161%2C5218%2C3826&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A mythical creature born of a misinterpreted fossil?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/statue-of-griffin-or-griffon-a-legendary-creature-royalty-free-image/1148411968">Akkharat Jarusilawong/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Everyone loves a good story, especially if it’s based on something true.</p>
<p>Consider the Greek legend of the Titanomachy, in which the Olympian gods, led by Zeus, vanquish the previous generation of immortals, the Titans. As <a href="https://www.sacred-texts.com/cla/hesiod/theogony.htm">recounted by the Greek poet Hesiod</a>, this conflict makes for a thrilling tale – and it may preserve kernels of truth.</p>
<p>The eruption <a href="https://www.historymuseum.ca/cmc/exhibitions/civil/greece/gr1040e.html">around 1650 B.C. of the Thera volcano</a> could have inspired Hesiod’s narrative. More powerful than Krakatoa, this ancient cataclysm in the southern Aegean Sea would have been witnessed by anyone living within hundreds of miles of the blast.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414381/original/file-20210803-15-1kd1r6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="aerial view of Santorini Caldera" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414381/original/file-20210803-15-1kd1r6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414381/original/file-20210803-15-1kd1r6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414381/original/file-20210803-15-1kd1r6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414381/original/file-20210803-15-1kd1r6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414381/original/file-20210803-15-1kd1r6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414381/original/file-20210803-15-1kd1r6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414381/original/file-20210803-15-1kd1r6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The massive eruption of the Thera volcano more than 3,500 years ago left behind a hollowed out island, today known as Santorini.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/7449551878/">Steve Jurvetson</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/natural-knowledge-preclassical-antiquity">Historian of science Mott Greene argues</a> that key moments from the Titanomachy map on to the eruption’s “signature.” For example, Hesiod notes that loud rumbles emanated from the ground as the armies clashed; seismologists now know that harmonic tremors – small earthquakes that sometimes precede eruptions – often produce similar sounds. And the impression of the sky – “wide Heaven” – shaking during the battle could have been inspired by <a href="https://www.universetoday.com/33431/volcanic-shockwave-captured-by-iss-imagery/">shock waves in the air</a> caused by the volcanic explosion. Hence, the Titanomachy may represent the creative misreading of a natural event.</p>
<p>Greene’s conjecture is an example of geomythology, a field of study that gleans scientific truths from legends and myths. Created by geologist Dorothy Vitaliano nearly 50 years ago, geomythology focuses on tales that may record, however dimly, occurrences like volcanic eruptions, tsunamis and earthquakes, as well as their aftereffects, such as the exposures of strange-looking bones. These events appear to have been, in some cases, so traumatic or wonder-inducing that they may have inspired preliterate peoples to “explain” them through fables.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mqZSQ1QAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">In 2021 I published</a> the first textbook in the field, “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/Geomythology-How-Common-Stories-Reflect-Earth-Events/Burbery/p/book/9780367711061">Geomythology: How Common Stories Reflect Earth Events</a>.” As the book demonstrates, researchers in both the sciences and the humanities practice geomythology. In fact, geomythology’s hybrid nature may help to bridge the gap between the two cultures. And despite its orientation toward the past, geomythology might also provide powerful resources for meeting environmental challenges in the future.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414610/original/file-20210804-21-o5ba5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Moken children play on the beach, with small boats tied up in the shallows" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414610/original/file-20210804-21-o5ba5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414610/original/file-20210804-21-o5ba5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414610/original/file-20210804-21-o5ba5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414610/original/file-20210804-21-o5ba5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414610/original/file-20210804-21-o5ba5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414610/original/file-20210804-21-o5ba5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414610/original/file-20210804-21-o5ba5m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The legend of a monster wave told by the Moken people gave them a leg up during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-photo-taken-on-september-30-2020-shows-moken-children-news-photo/1229742933">Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Passed-down tales that explain the world</h2>
<p>Some geomyths are relatively well known. One comes from the Moken people in Thailand, who survived the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean, a catastrophe that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30034501">killed some 228,000 people</a>. On that terrible day, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/dec/10/indian-ocean-tsunami-moken-sea-nomads-thailand">Moken heeded an old tale about the “laboon”</a>, or “monster wave,” a legend passed down to them over countless campfires.</p>
<p>According to the fable, from time to time a people-devouring wave would surge and move far inland. However, those who fled to high ground in time, or, counterintuitively, put out into deeper waters, would survive. Following the legend’s advice, the Moken preserved their lives. </p>
<p>Other geomyths might have started as explanations for prehistoric remains that didn’t readily map onto any known creature.</p>
<p>The Cyclopes, the tribe of one-eyed ogres that terrorized Odysseus and his crew, might have sprung from the findings of prehistoric elephant skulls in Greece and Italy. In 1914, <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/animali-del-passato/oclc/878781319?referer=br&ht=edition">paleontologist Othenio Abel pointed out</a> that these fossils feature large facial cavities in front, from which the trunk would have protruded. The eye sockets, by contrast, are easily overlooked on the sides of the cranium. To the ancient Greeks who dug them up, these skulls might have seemed like the remains of monocular, humanoid giants.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/mythic-creatures/land/griffin-bones">seemingly fanciful griffin</a> – the eagle-headed, lion-bodied hybrid – might have a similar origin story and could be based on the creative misrecognition of <em>Protoceratops</em> dinosaur remains in the Gobi Desert.</p>
<p>Still other geomyths may point to natural events. Indigenous tales tell of “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-32701311">fire devils</a>” that flew down from the Sun and plunged to Earth, killing everything in the vicinity when they landed. These “devils” were probably meteors witnessed by Aboriginal Australians. In some cases, the <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1408.6368">tales anticipate findings of Western science</a> by decades, even centuries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414646/original/file-20210804-23-xydpg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="people on small boat and raft setting up scientific equipment" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414646/original/file-20210804-23-xydpg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414646/original/file-20210804-23-xydpg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414646/original/file-20210804-23-xydpg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414646/original/file-20210804-23-xydpg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414646/original/file-20210804-23-xydpg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414646/original/file-20210804-23-xydpg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414646/original/file-20210804-23-xydpg0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Researchers set up monitoring equipment at Africa’s Lake Nyos that will sound an alarm if carbon dioxide levels become dangerous again.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/multinational-group-of-researchers-set-up-carbon-dioxide-news-photo/585863268">Louise Gubb/Corbis Historical via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Numerous African folktales ascribe mischief to certain lakes, including the lakes’ apparent ability to change color, shift locations and even turn deadly. <a href="https://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/273/1/NP">Such legends have been corroborated by actual events</a>. The most notorious example is the “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.236.4798.169">explosion” of Cameroon’s Lake Nyos in 1986</a> when carbon dioxide, long trapped on the bottom, abruptly surfaced. Within a day, 1,746 people, along with thousands of birds, insects and livestock, were <a href="https://youtu.be/o8AonDeS8HY">suffocated by the CO2 cloud the lake burped up</a>. Lakes are sometimes associated with death and the underworld in Mediterranean stories as well: Lake Avernus, near Naples, is mythologized <a href="http://classics.mit.edu/Virgil/aeneid.6.vi.html">as such in Virgil’s “Aeneid</a>.”</p>
<p>Animal encounters may inform other geomyths. <a href="https://theconversation.com/guide-to-the-classics-the-histories-by-herodotus-53748">Herodotus’ “Histories”</a>, written about 430 B.C., claims that dog-sized ants guard certain gold deposits in regions of East Asia. In his 1984 book “<a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/ants-gold/oclc/251832995&referer=brief_results">The Ants’s Gold: The Discovery of the Greek El Dorado in the Himalayas</a>,” ethnologist <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/16/world/europe/michel-peissel-tibet-scholar-and-adventurer-dies-at-74.html">Michel Peissel</a> uncovered Herodotus’ possible inspiration: mountain-dwelling marmots, who to this day “mine” gold by layering their nests with gold dust.</p>
<h2>Fanciful stories that feed into science</h2>
<p>Geomythology is not a science. The old stories are often garbled or contradictory, and it’s always possible that they preceded the real events that today’s researchers link them with. Imaginative pre-scientific peoples might well have dreamed up various tales out of whole cloth and only later found “confirmation” in Earth events or discoveries. </p>
<p>Yet as noted, geomyths like the griffin and Cyclopes arose from specific geographical regions that feature remains not found elsewhere. The likelihood of preliterate peoples first inventing tales that then somehow corresponded closely to later fossil finds seems like a stunning coincidence. More likely, at least with some geotales, the discoveries preceded the narratives. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414650/original/file-20210804-13508-l8czzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Etruscan pottery with black figures blinding the cyclops with a spear" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414650/original/file-20210804-13508-l8czzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414650/original/file-20210804-13508-l8czzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414650/original/file-20210804-13508-l8czzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414650/original/file-20210804-13508-l8czzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414650/original/file-20210804-13508-l8czzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414650/original/file-20210804-13508-l8czzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414650/original/file-20210804-13508-l8czzn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=602&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pottery from the fifth century B.C. depicting the blinding of a Cyclops.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/etruscan-civilization-5th-century-b-c-black-figure-pottery-news-photo/122214433">DEA/G. Nimatallah/De Agostini Editorial via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Either way, geomythology can serve as a valuable ally to science. Most often, it can help to corroborate scientific findings.</p>
<p>Yet geomyths can sometimes go further and correct scientific results or raise alternative hypotheses. For example, geologist <a href="https://www.geosociety.org/awards/16speeches/mgpv.htm">Donald Swanson</a> argues that the Pele legends of Hawaii suggest that the Kilauea volcanic caldera was formed considerably earlier than previous studies had indicated. He alleges that “volcanologists were led astray” in their research on the caldera’s age “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.01.033">by not paying close attention to the Hawaiian oral traditions</a>.”</p>
<p>Though focused on the past, geomythology may also help to set future scientific agendas. Today’s researchers might become familiar with myths that feature weird creatures or extreme weather, and then examine the stories’ places of origins for geological and paleontological clues. Such tales might provide invaluable links with real occurrences that took place long before there was a scientist around to record them. Indeed, such stories could have endured precisely because they memorialized a traumatic or wrenching incident and were thus passed down from one generation to the next as a literal cautionary tale. </p>
<h2>Creating geomyths today for future generations</h2>
<p>Another exciting area for geomythical study is not just the researching of old myths but the creation of new ones that could alert future generations of potential dangers, whether these peoples might live in tsunami-prone regions, near nuclear waste sites like Yucca Mountain, or in some equally risky area. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414374/original/file-20210803-25-1fhv9fb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="warning sign for radioactive waste" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414374/original/file-20210803-25-1fhv9fb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414374/original/file-20210803-25-1fhv9fb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414374/original/file-20210803-25-1fhv9fb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414374/original/file-20210803-25-1fhv9fb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414374/original/file-20210803-25-1fhv9fb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414374/original/file-20210803-25-1fhv9fb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414374/original/file-20210803-25-1fhv9fb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What if, millennia from now, no one can read or understand a sign like this?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:WIPP_-_Small_Subsurface_Markers.svg">Department of Energy – Carlsbad Field Office</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nuclear waste can remain radioactive for mind-boggling amounts of time, in some cases <a href="https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/radwaste.html#waste">up to many tens of thousands of years</a>. While placing warning labels on deposits of radioactive materials seems sensible, languages morph constantly and there’s no guarantee that present-day ones will even be spoken, let alone be understandable, in the distant future. Indeed, even stranger to contemplate is the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/were-underestimating-the-risk-of-human-extinction/253821/">extinction of the human race</a>, an event that some philosophers see as potentially closer than we might think. How, if at all, might we warn our distant progeny or, beyond them, our eventual post-human successors? </p>
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<p>Creating notification systems that persist throughout time is an area in which myths could be useful. Famous tales often last for many generations, sometimes proving more durable than the languages in which they were first told or spoken. Indeed, C.S. Lewis wrote that one hallmark of myth is that it “would <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/george-macdonald-c-s-lewis?variant=32117835202594">equally delight and nourish</a> if it had reached [us] by some medium which involved no words at all – say by a mime, or a film.”</p>
<p>Because they are less tied to language than literature is, myths may be easier to transmit across cultures and time. The oldest one currently on record is an <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/aboriginal-tale-ancient-volcano-oldest-story-ever-told">Aboriginal tale concerning a volcano</a>; it may be 35,000 years old.</p>
<p>Geomythology could thus contribute to a linguistic field known as nuclear semiotics, which <a href="https://mosaicscience.com/story/how-do-you-leave-warning-lasts-long-nuclear-waste/">grapples with the problem of</a> <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200731-how-to-build-a-nuclear-warning-for-10000-years-time">warning distant generations about hazardous waste</a>. An intentionally created geomyth might preserve and transmit crucial information from the nuclear age to our descendants, with considerable effectiveness.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162071/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy John Burbery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People tell tales to explain what they see – centuries later, scientists try to map handed-down myths onto real geological events.Timothy John Burbery, Professor of English, Marshall UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1631002021-06-25T16:00:56Z2021-06-25T16:00:56ZWe’ve been following victims of the Boxing Day tsunami for 16 years – this is what we’ve learned about recovering from disaster<p>On December 26 2004, waves triggered by a massive earthquake slammed into the coastlines of countries ringing the Indian Ocean. The death toll was enormous. Worldwide, it is estimated that about <a href="https://apnews.com/article/4bf54ae8134a47718e8314e883b8074c">230,000 people</a> died that day. Aceh province, on the northern end of the Indonesian island of Sumatra, was hit hardest. There, more than <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-24/boxing-day-tsunami-how-the-disaster-unfolded/5977568">160,000 people</a> – nearly 5% of the local population – were killed. In the worst hit areas, survivors lost their homes and livelihoods and saw their communities reduced to rubble.</p>
<p>Over the months that followed, governments, religious organisations, NGOs and individual people delivered substantial support for humanitarian assistance and rebuilding. Multi-year reconstruction projects began and Indonesia committed to building back better. Much of what has been learned from that disaster is relevant when considering how the world will recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of an event like the 2004 tsunami, the path forward is not clear. So how have those from affected regions fared since the day the waves crashed ashore? Over the last 16 years, we have followed people and their families who were living along the coasts of Aceh and Northern Sumatra, the two most northerly provinces in Sumatra, as part of the <a href="http://stardata.org">Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery</a> (STAR).</p>
<p>Experiences of the disaster and its aftermath, and the meaning people take from them, have varied. </p>
<p>One young man we spoke to lost his wife, child, and 27 other family members in the disaster, but has since remarried. He says that the time since the tsunami has taught him that life sometimes brings happiness and sometimes not, but that affection is critically important. </p>
<p>Another young man who lost a wife and child has also remarried. But he told us that the time since the tsunami has not brought any positive changes in his life, though he is deeply committed to earning the money to support the education of the two young children he now has.</p>
<p>Our data covers the population before the disaster and measures exposure to the disaster in terms of impacts on both places and people. We have been able to measure the disaster’s various impacts on wellbeing and shed light on some of the key drivers for recovery.</p>
<h2>Mortality and health</h2>
<p>Death is the most extreme consequence of exposure to a disaster. Some deaths are immediate, but others may occur over the years as sustained exposure to stress takes its toll. Teasing out how disasters affect mortality risks is complicated, but can provide clues about what will happen when disasters strike in the future. </p>
<p>We have found that the groups least likely to survive the tsunami were older adults and young children. Among adults, women were less likely to survive than men. </p>
<p>Tracking mortality among survivors in the years after the tsunami provides direct evidence on people’s resilience. We see resilience as the ability to minimise the negative impacts of difficult situations and move forward effectively afterwards. The devastation caused by the tsunami has the potential to “scar” people, resulting in their premature death. But equally, the survivors may have protective traits that are associated with better health and longevity. </p>
<p>We examined mortality for survivors at five years and ten years after the tsunami. We found that among adults, both these factors are in play and that they operate differently for men and women. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407927/original/file-20210623-21-qd1vyr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph showing mortality levels for men on the left and women on the right. Blue bars show levels for people affected by the disaster, and orange those who were unaffected." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407927/original/file-20210623-21-qd1vyr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407927/original/file-20210623-21-qd1vyr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407927/original/file-20210623-21-qd1vyr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407927/original/file-20210623-21-qd1vyr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407927/original/file-20210623-21-qd1vyr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407927/original/file-20210623-21-qd1vyr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407927/original/file-20210623-21-qd1vyr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mortality levels in Aceh after the 2004 tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Elizabeth Frankenberg</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Five years after the tsunami, there is <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29731526/">clear evidence</a> that for male survivors who were aged 50 and above when the disaster took place, those from heavily affected areas were more likely to still be alive than those from relatively unaffected areas. This shows that over this period, certain protective traits of survivors (perhaps general fitness) appear to exert a stronger effect on longevity than any “scarring” elements of the event. </p>
<p>But for women over 50, the reverse was true: we found that survivors from heavily damaged areas were at higher risk of dying over the next five years than women from unaffected areas. </p>
<p>These basic patterns were still apparent ten years after the disaster. But by this point, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33681474/">the evidence</a> shows that in particular, post-traumatic stress for older men or the loss of a spouse for older women decreased the likelihood them still being alive. Although the two events are of course extremely different, these results should encourage us to reflect on what the long-term health effects of the COVID pandemic might be.</p>
<p>We’ve also been looking at the evidence for how the extraordinary stresses of the tsunami affected survivors’ health and wellbeing. A large fraction of the people in our study reported high levels of post traumatic stress symptoms; for some, these resolved quickly but for others, they persisted for several years. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(18)30093-7/fulltext">Our evidence</a> shows that 13 years after the tsunami, adults who directly experienced the tsunami had thicker waists, were more likely to have elevated inflammation levels (indicating infection or illness), and more likely to have difficulties regulating glucose levels. </p>
<p>These patterns point to a long-term scarring that gets under the skin and will likely affect disease progression and mortality in the years to come. Specifically, several established biological markers indicate that some survivors who directly experienced the tsunami are at higher risk of chronic illnesses such as heart disease and diabetes. Again, this raises questions as to how the stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic will affect long-term health.</p>
<p>For very young children, <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)31133-9/fulltext">we found</a> that exposure to the tsunami could leave its mark on growth. Child height is a powerful predictor of health, mortality and socio-economic status in adulthood. It is largely determined in the first few years of life. We document that children who were <em>in utero</em> at the time of the tsunami were small at birth and significantly shorter at age three. </p>
<p>For many of the children, these deficits were made up in subsequent years and they eventually attained the same height (given age and gender) as peers not yet conceived when the tsunami took place. This suggests that, at least in this dimension of wellbeing, resilience is high, although we cannot rule out longer term consequences of rapid catch-up growth that may be linked to elevated risks of poor health in adulthood.</p>
<h2>Other outcomes</h2>
<p>We have focused here on differences in the evolution of health by level of exposure to the tsunami and the stress it caused. But efforts to help affected populations meet basic needs and recover after the disaster changed the environment, possibly in ways that positively affected people. Indeed, the results for children’s nutritional status are likely attributable, at least in part, to improvements brought about by humanitarian assistance and reconstruction. </p>
<p>In addition to providing immediate help for things like water, food, clothing and shelter, over time assistance programmes provided work opportunities as well as funds and materials to rebuild houses, schools, health facilities, community centres, mosques, roads and other infrastructure. These efforts were extremely successful.</p>
<p>We found that among those who owned homes that were destroyed, 80% had a replacement house within five years of the disaster. Those who were economically worse off before the tsunami were more likely to receive an assistance house. Both quantitative data and in-depth interviews suggest that the housing programme was the most important type of assistance people received.</p>
<p>Opportunities for paid work are also fundamentally important for people’s economic recovery. Early programmes offering food in return for clean-up work and the massive reconstruction programme undertaken to “build back better” provided such opportunities. </p>
<p>The end result was a rise over time in the proportion of adults who reported working — an impact that was strongest for prime-age men but made less of a difference for older men, for whom the strength requirements of the work may have been too much. And we found an uptick in work for pay (rather than unpaid work or family care) among women from heavily damaged areas in the aftermath of the disaster.</p>
<p>Not all of those who wanted jobs were able to find them nearby. Migration towards heavily damaged areas picked up quickly, both because those who had left shortly after the tsunami returned home and because people from undamaged areas moved towards the work opportunities that arose from reconstruction. This offset some of the population losses from people dying in the tsunami or moving away from the damage shortly afterwards.</p>
<p>Understanding how people and populations are affected by events outside their control and evaluating the effectiveness of policies and programmes is critical in responses to disasters, pandemics and other threats to population health and wellbeing. The implications of these events are complex and continuously evolving, and patterns vary with age, sex and other socio-economic and demographic characteristics. It is difficult to overstate the diversity of experiences and outcomes in the years following the tsunami and it is critically important that we understand the factors that drive this diversity.</p>
<p>Our research highlights the importance of policies that mitigate post-traumatic stress, help people get back into stable housing, and provide opportunities for paid work. They have important benefits for physical and for psychosocial health, as well as for economic wellbeing. As the world continues to struggle with COVID and attempts to restart economic progress, safety nets that address health, stable housing and economic opportunity are likely to pay off.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is part of a series on recovering from the pandemic in a way that makes societies more resilient and able to deal with future challenges. It is supported by <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/resilience-in-recovery-106634">PreventionWeb</a>, a platform from the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Read more coverage <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/resilient-recovery-series-106366">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Frankenberg receives funding from the National Institute on Aging, the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Development,the National Science Foundation, the World Bank, the Hewlett Foundation,
the MacArthur Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cecep Sumantri receives funding from the National Institute on Aging, the
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Development,
the National Science Foundation, the World Bank, the Hewlett Foundation,
the MacArthur Foundation and the Wellcome Trust</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duncan Thomas receives funding from the National Institute on Aging, the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Development, the National Science Foundation, the World Bank, the Hewlett Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation and the Wellcome Trust. </span></em></p>In the immediate aftermath of an event like the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the path forward is not always clear. Looking backward, what have we learned?Elizabeth Frankenberg, Cary C. Boshamer Distinguished Professor of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillCecep Sumantri, Director of Capacity Building, SurveyMETERDuncan Thomas, Norb F. Schaefer Professor of International Studies, Duke UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1621022021-06-24T11:38:22Z2021-06-24T11:38:22ZTsunamis, earthquakes, nuclear meltdowns and COVID-19 – what Japan has and hasn’t learned from centuries of disaster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406772/original/file-20210616-3759-yvi4ak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4199%2C2506&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Three weeks after the 9.0 magnitude quakre and subsequent tsunami struck Japan.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://webgate.epa.eu/webgate">EPA/Stephen Morrison</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A decade on from <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/3-11/">3/11</a> – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/fukushima-why-we-need-to-look-back-thousands-of-years-to-get-better-at-predicting-earthquakes-156882">devastating earthquake</a>, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe that hit Japan – the country is again amid a crisis caused by COVID-19.</p>
<p>Japan’s already <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_disasters_in_Japan_by_death_toll">long experience</a> with hazards and disasters was expanded when it faced the catastrophic triple disaster of 3/11. Yet it does not seem like the potential lessons from how to respond to unforseen disasters of unprecedented size and scale have been applied when it comes to COVID.</p>
<p>When flexibility and fast decision making was needed, Japan’s government has been <a href="https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/04/25/probing-japans-slow-response-to-the-covid-19-crisis/">slow to act</a> against the pandemic. The response <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/COVID-reveals-Japan-s-long-history-of-poor-crisis-management">lacked urgency</a> and was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/26/asia/japan-covid-vaccination-program-intl-hnk-dst/index.html">extremely cautious</a>. With vaccinations getting underway in June 2021, Japan is finally coming closer to getting the pandemic under control, but it lags far behind other G7 countries.</p>
<p>The slow response – similar to a paralysed <a href="https://www.spf.org/en/global-data/book_fukushima.pdf">lack of action</a> during the nuclear disaster in 2011 – shows that even extensive experience and expertise in hazard mitigation and disaster management do not automatically translate into good pandemic management. It is clear that there are serious weaknesses in Japan’s bureaucratic disaster governance. </p>
<h2>‘Unprecedented’ disaster #1</h2>
<p>On March 11, 2011, the largest earthquake ever <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/17/world/asia/japan-earthquake---tsunami-fast-facts/index.html">recorded in Japan</a> (and <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/earthquake-hazards/science/20-largest-earthquakes-world?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects">fourth in the world</a>) struck off the coast of the country. It caused a tsunami that killed more than <a href="https://www.reconstruction.go.jp/english/topics/GEJE/">20,000 people</a>, devastated communities along 500km of coastline and led to a nuclear <a href="https://theconversation.com/fukushima-seven-years-later-case-closed-93448">meltdown</a> at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. </p>
<p>Japan has an extensive history and experience facing and responding to earthquakes and tsunamis and because of this it is one of the most earthquake-prepared countries in the world. Few buildings constructed after Japan’s 1981 seismic building code were damaged, <a href="https://www.kenken.go.jp/english/contents/topics/pdf/report_ujnr2011.pdf">even by this mega-quake</a>. But, <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/17107">exceeding all predictions</a>, the tsunami destroyed places believed to be safe, causing tragic loss of life even among people who had escaped to <a href="https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/tjem/229/4/229_287/_html/-char/en">evacuation centres</a>, and overwhelmed disaster response <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/207516/9789290615682_eng.pdf">capacity</a>.</p>
<p>At 2:46pm on Friday, March 11, the shaking started. In Japan, earthquakes are measured and reported by not only their magnitude, but also on a scale that measures their shaking intensity from 1 to 7. This is called the <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/japan-disaster-information/shindo-seismic-intensity/"><em>shindo</em></a> scale. For example, at shindo 6, people are thrown to the ground. On March 11, the earthquake hit <a href="https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/311data1201/">shindo 7</a> in some areas.</p>
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<p><em>Listen to Elizabeth Maly on <a href="https://podfollow.com/the-conversation-weekly/view">The Conversation Weekly</a> podcast episode: <a href="https://theconversation.com/fire-tsunami-pandemic-how-to-ensure-societies-learn-lessons-from-disaster-podcast-163194">Fire, tsunami, pandemic: how to ensure societies learn lessons from disaster</a>.</em></p>
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<h2>‘A black wave’</h2>
<p>The shaking itself was scary, lasting six minutes that seemed like an eternity, but that was nothing compared to what was coming. In some places, the first tsunami wave arrived within 30 minutes. A tsunami is more like a moving wall of water than a wave in the ocean. Once the tsunami overtops levees or sea walls, water rises quickly in the streets and travels faster than a car. As it moves, it picks up oil, debris – all the parts of the cities it is destroying. </p>
<p>People described the tsunami as a black wave, a wall of water, a cloud of dust, a terrifying sound. On YouTube, you can see many <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cys8581RSXE">videos</a> from that day, filmed by survivors who managed to reach higher places. They show the sea level rising in harbours and then waters rushing into towns. </p>
<p>Tsunamis are not one, but multiple waves that come in and recede again and again; breaking and pulling houses, buildings, cars – everything – out to sea. In many of these videos, you can hear people yelling “tsunami” or “this is the end”, or yelling to people below to run away. In much of this region, which has experienced multiple tsunamis in the past, many people evacuated to the designated places on higher ground. </p>
<p>But some made decisions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/24/the-school-beneath-the-wave-the-unimaginable-tragedy-of-japans-tsunami">which turned out to be fatal</a>: to go back to get supplies or blankets to keep warm, or to go to check on family first before evacuating. Some people tried to evacuate by car and were overcome by the tsunami. Others were washed out to sea. Around <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/mar/21/japan-earthquake-death-toll-18000">18,000</a> people lost their lives in the tsunami directly – a figure that jumps to more than <a href="https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx">20,000</a> when including related deaths that took place later.</p>
<p>It was still cold in March, and it snowed that night. People who spent it outside stranded on rooftops, speak of the clear sky, of being cold and wet. With blackouts, there was no electricity and as phone systems were also not working, there was no way to share or get information about the safety of people in other places. </p>
<p>Some areas remained cut off for days, as people stayed in evacuation centres, sleeping on the floor of school gymnasiums, or with extended family and neighbours in houses above the devastation. More than <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2015/03/10/editorials/tohoku-slowly-on-the-mend/">400,000 houses</a> were damaged, some with only the concrete foundations remaining. Homes and other buildings were reduced to huge piles of debris strewn across the landscape.</p>
<p>But even as rescue workers and relief supplies were arriving for tsunami evacuees, inside the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, things were going from bad to worse. The plant had lost power and it was losing the ability to cool its reactors. At that time, it was not clear what was happening – but it was later confirmed that nuclear meltdowns happened in three reactors.</p>
<p>After several explosions, evacuation orders were issued and then upgraded for the surrounding communities. Without clear coordination or an organised plan (<a href="http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14262688">then or even now</a>), initial evacuation orders were issued for areas depending on their distance from the nuclear power plant. It turned out that this did not match the heavier areas of contamination caused by the wind patterns on that day. </p>
<p>Evacuation from the nuclear disaster area was chaotic. Some people evacuated on their own, some towns tried to evacuate together. Evacuation was especially difficult for residents of nursing or care facilities, many of whom <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0137906">lost their lives</a>. It was hard to find available areas, especially since many evacuation centres were already at capacity with tsunami evacuees. Nuclear evacuees often moved multiple times in their evacuation.</p>
<p>Even ten years later, there are still some areas where people are <a href="https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00954/">not allowed</a> to return because of radioactive contamination. Many other people do not want to return even with assurances of safety, especially those with young families. </p>
<h2>Building back</h2>
<p>Although 3/11 was unprecedented, the Japanese government drew from past disasters and existing legal frameworks to develop a standardised menu of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-020-00268-9">funded programmes</a> to rebuild destroyed communities. In the name of building back safer, massive <a href="https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00684/">infrastructure</a> has drastically altered the landscape. Sea walls have been built, land raised and mountains cut into to relocate houses and communities out of reach of future tsunamis. </p>
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<p>But questions remain over the long-term effects of these recovery projects and the changes inflicted on tsunami-stricken communities. For those affected by the nuclear disaster, programmes that focus on “hometown recovery” (rebuilding housing and community infrastructure within former municipalities) struggle to address issues of radioactive contamination, indefinite displacement and <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/fukushima-tragic-legacy-radioactive-soil">un-inhabitability</a> in towns where residents cannot, or choose not to, return. </p>
<p>One strength of Japan’s disaster response and reconstruction is standardisation – emphasising “equal” support to all. Decisions made at the top are implemented through an efficient, if slow, bureaucratic process. Japan has detailed legal frameworks and <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/681491468038643305/pdf/793630BRI0drm000Box377374B00Public0.pdf">standardised disaster management policies</a>, and <a href="https://gakkai.chiku-bousai.jp/english.html">community disaster management plans</a> are promoted across the country. For housing recovery after 3/11, policies were based on standardised compensation for damaged homes and support for new housing across the region. </p>
<p>During COVID-19, the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/from-abenomics-to-abenomask-japan-mask-plan-meets-with-derision">highly-ridiculed</a> policy to send two (very small) masks to each household in the county (regardless of the household size or local pandemic conditions) is a perfect example of a policy that was fair and the same for all, yet <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/05/ede4deecf584-abenomasks-wont-reach-all-households-this-month-govt.html">slow</a> and not responsive to actual needs. </p>
<p>The flip side of this precision and standardisation is a lack of flexibility or incentive for developing creative solutions. This system is incapable of moving quickly, decisive action, or course corrections. Detailed manuals with rote responses that can be practised could be effective for a reoccurring event such as heavy rains, typhoons, blackouts, or even small earthquakes – but they are useless in an unpredicted crisis. </p>
<p>It is difficult for this system to address massive and complex problems such as those created by the nuclear disaster. The slow moving governmental bureaucracy has proved itself even less capable of responding decisively to control the spread of an unknown pandemic virus, which does not fall under Japan’s well established laws and policies governing disaster management. </p>
<h2>‘Unknowable’ hazards</h2>
<p>Both the nuclear accident and the pandemic were unpredicted and “unknowable” disasters, especially in the early days of each crisis. We grew to understand more over time.</p>
<p>In the days after the tsunami, the world wondered what was happening inside the Fukushima nuclear power plant – efforts to cover up the fact it was actually a nuclear <a href="https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20160617/p2a/00m/0na/013000c">meltdown</a> were only officially admitted <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35650625">five years later</a>. While the path of radioactive particles was known, this data was <a href="https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/gaiko/oda/files/000415120.pdf">not shared</a> with the public, or used to direct evacuation – in some cases people unknowingly remained in, or were evacuated to areas, with higher contamination.</p>
<p>Like radiation, COVID-19 is an invisible risk. While both radiation and virus exposure can be silently carried in our bodies without our knowledge, the window when potential health impacts become known is much shorter with COVID-19. In both cases, though, unsure about what risks they were exposed to and lacking proactive government actions, people made their own judgements about risk and safety. </p>
<p>With an official COVID-19 death toll of just over <a href="https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/jp">14,000</a>, and daily deaths rarely much over 100, in Japan the pandemic has not reached the tragic levels seen elsewhere. The health care system has been stretched in some places, but never collapsed. This means that people in Japan are fortunate compared to those in many other countries, yet many of those lives may have been saved with more effective pandemic management.</p>
<p>In the face of uncertain risks and unknowable hazards, the Japanese government’s approach to COVID-19 and the nuclear disaster show some similarities, with official narratives shaped through the use of selective information. </p>
<p>For example, COVID-19 case numbers and data have been released daily – but they <a href="https://safecast.org/2020/04/uncertainties-about-japans-covid-19-data/">don’t include all tests</a>. Policies that focus on <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03518-4">contact tracing</a> while <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html">avoiding widespread testing</a> were intended to reduce the number of people going to hospitals. So – as explained by global health expert <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ywc2vt1RVIM">Kenji Shibuya</a> – rather than a public health approach, Japan was focused on preserving the functions of the health care system. While this may have been a valid goal, it could not effectively control the virus after widespread community infection. </p>
<p>The Japanese government has continuously <a href="https://www.teach311.org/2020/07/09/maly/">downplayed the risk of COVID-19</a> (as it did with the nuclear disaster) prioritising economic activity while promoting an image of “<a href="https://www.teach311.org/2020/07/09/maly/">COVID-safe</a>” Japan, both inside and outside of the country. Without real lockdowns or stay-at-home orders, Japan’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/yoshihide-suga-tokyo-osaka-coronavirus-pandemic-japan-754dc02e08a19728429c55c381fd84b3">COVID-19 states of emergency</a> limit business hours for bars and restaurants and large gatherings. People are asked to practice “self-restraint” and avoid crowded and congested places.</p>
<p>Existing cultural factors such as widespread mask-wearing, keeping physically distanced, high levels of sanitation and rule-following may have contributed to slowing the spread of COVID-19 in Japan. Some experts and officials fell back on <a href="https://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/diplomacy/pt20200605162619.html">culturalist</a> and even <a href="https://www.asianstudies.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Pandemic-Perspectives-on-Asia.pdf">racial superiority</a> reasons for this perceived Japanese exceptionalism. However, by the end of 2020 it was clear that Japan’s strategies <a href="https://time.com/5922918/japan-covid-19-cases-fatigue/">were not working</a>. </p>
<p>With the number of seriously ill COVID patients <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/05/02/national/japan-coronavirus-may2/">peaking in May 2021</a> and vaccinations for the elderly only just getting started in June, <a href="https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html">cases</a> continuing to rise and the <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1660/">state of emergency extended</a> for much of the country, it is becoming harder to see Japan’s pandemic management as something to emulate. </p>
<p>Despite this, the national government has been vowing to get <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-s-Suga-vows-to-bring-COVID-19-under-control">COVID under control</a> and promising the world that Tokyo will still hold the Olympics from July 2021.</p>
<h2>Olympic redemption?</h2>
<p>The shadow of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics was already present after the nuclear accident, when in 2013 the prime minister assured the world that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-presentation-tokyo/tokyo-reassures-ioc-over-fukushima-fears-idUSBRE9860CO20130907">Japan was safe</a> while securing Tokyo’s bid to host the games. Only days later it was revealed that massive amounts of radioactive groundwater had been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/after-snatching-olympics-japan-suddenly-admits-fukushima-not-under-control-begs-for-international-help-2013-10">leaking into the sea</a>. </p>
<p>Downplaying risks to create an image of safety both in Japan and globally was a core government strategy. This message became inextricably linked to hosting the Tokyo Olympics (an economic opportunity as well as an ultimate chance to present Japan in a positive way to the world). Initially, the “<a href="https://www.reconstruction.go.jp/2020portal/eng/reconst-olympic/">Recovery Olympics</a>” were framed to show successful recovery after 3/11 (an idea that many found to be <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/03/10/national/recovery-olympics-moniker-2020-games-rubs-3-11-evacuees-wrong-way/">offensive</a> to disaster survivors still facing many challenges). </p>
<p>Then in 2020, with the Olympics finally around the corner, the pandemic struck. Japan made every effort to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/b696bb41fe5e807ba2a99b09c910f16e">avoid the eventual postponement</a> of the Tokyo Games to 2021. Now, they have been reframed as a way to show the world Japan’s triumph over the pandemic.</p>
<p>With Tokyo under an extended state of emergency into June, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57240044">questions</a> lingered as to whether the postponed games would go on as scheduled from July 2021 and if teams will come. There has even been speculation that the Olympics could result in a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/japan-reassures-olympics-can-be-safe-extended-state-emergency-eyed-2021-05-27/">new virus mutation</a> </p>
<p>With a few notable exceptions, the places that were able to act quickly to effectively control the spread of COVID-19 were those with experience handling the SARS pandemic, such as <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/hong-kong-sars-china-coronavirus-covid19/608131/">Hong Kong</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-00908-2">Taiwan</a>.</p>
<p>While Japan has expert knowledge and a national infectious disease research centre, without a national government agency such as the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/">CDC</a> in the United States, the COVID-19 response was ad-hoc. Several expert committees were set up to advise the government; the national response was led by the minister of economics. This is a telling factor of Japan’s response, although Japan is no way unique among countries of the world that struggled to balance the control of disease with impact on their economy.</p>
<p>In Japan, natural hazards are precisely predicted and calculated, with hazard maps of local areas mailed to residents. From a young age, children learn what to do in the case of an earthquake, and there is high awareness of disasters in the general public as well as private and public sectors. The <em>shinkansen</em> (bullet train) automatically stops seconds after an earthquake is detected, and cell phones automatically issue a warning for anyone in the area. With standardised policies in place, risk events are confirmed and conveyed, warnings are disseminated, and pre-existing plans are activated to set up evacuation facilities and give out relief supplies.</p>
<p>Yet, Japan shows us that disaster management experience does not automatically translate to effective pandemic management, at least not on a national level. Japanese disaster management and response is technologically proficient, with expertise and precise calculations and efficient systems to calculate and issue warnings and implement safety measures.</p>
<p>But disaster management that is based on planning for specific expected events is not flexible. Effective response to natural or technical hazards – or pandemic diseases – requires competent national leadership as well as suitable localised responses. Most importantly, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-disasters-un-idUSKBN26X18O">natural hazards continue to grow</a> and become even more unpredictable with climate change, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210111-what-could-the-next-pandemic-be">next global pandemic</a> or disaster may be here soon. The ability to respond quickly and with flexibility may be the most important factor to avoid repeating the failures of COVID-19 and a potentially even greater loss of life.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is part of a series on recovering from the pandemic in a way that makes societies more resilient and able to deal with future challenges. Read more of our coverage <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/resilient-recovery-series-106366">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162102/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Maly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Japan has a long experience of hazards and disasters. Yet it does not seem like all lessons have been applied when it comes to COVID.Elizabeth Maly, Associate Professor, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1472502020-10-09T15:09:24Z2020-10-09T15:09:24ZKrakatoa is still active, and we are not ready for the tsunamis another eruption would generate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362457/original/file-20201008-22-5bqu3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C344%2C5463%2C3293&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Deni_Sugandi / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The August 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was one of the deadliest volcanic explosions in modern history. The volcano, found in the middle of the Sunda Strait in between two of Indonesia’s largest islands, was on a small island which disappeared almost overnight. The eruption was so loud it could be heard in Reunion, some 3,000 miles away. </p>
<p>As the volcano collapsed into the sea, it generated a tsunami 37m high – tall enough to submerge a six-storey building. And as the wave raced along the shoreline of the Sunda Strait, it destroyed 300 towns and villages, and killed more than 36,000 people.</p>
<p>Nearly 45 years later, in 1927, a series of sporadic underwater eruptions meant part of the original volcano once again emerged above the sea, forming a new island named Anak Krakatoa, which means “Child of Krakatoa”. In December 2018, during another small eruption, one of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46669280">Anak Krakatoa’s flanks collapsed</a> into the ocean and the region’s shorelines were once again hit by a major tsunami. This time, 437 were left dead, nearly 32,000 were injured and more than 16,000 people were displaced. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362681/original/file-20201009-21-14u7df4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of Krakatoa." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362681/original/file-20201009-21-14u7df4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362681/original/file-20201009-21-14u7df4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362681/original/file-20201009-21-14u7df4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362681/original/file-20201009-21-14u7df4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362681/original/file-20201009-21-14u7df4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=925&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362681/original/file-20201009-21-14u7df4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=925&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362681/original/file-20201009-21-14u7df4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=925&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Krakatoa is in the middle of a narrow strait between Java and Sumatra. Indonesia’s capital Jakarta is about 100 miles to the east.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sunda_strait_map_v3.png">ChrisO wiki / CIA World Factbook / Demis</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even though Anak Krakatoa had been active since June that year, local residents received no warning that a huge wave was about to hit. This is because Indonesia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesia-tsunami-why-wasnt-there-an-earlier-warning-104265">early warning system</a> is based on ocean buoys that detect tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes, such as those that struck on Boxing Day in 2004, in one of the most deadly natural disasters of all time. </p>
<p>But tsunamis caused by volcanic eruptions are rather different and, as they aren’t very common, scientists still don’t fully understand them. And Indonesia has <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/62789">no advanced early warning system</a> in place for volcano-generated tsunamis.</p>
<p>At some point in the future, Anak Krakatoa will erupt again, generating more tsunamis. Since it is difficult to predict exactly which areas of the Sunda Strait will be affected, it is of paramount importance that residents in coastal villages are well aware of the danger. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362703/original/file-20201009-15-15ig778.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Damaged buildings on a seafront, tropical forest background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362703/original/file-20201009-15-15ig778.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362703/original/file-20201009-15-15ig778.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362703/original/file-20201009-15-15ig778.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362703/original/file-20201009-15-15ig778.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362703/original/file-20201009-15-15ig778.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362703/original/file-20201009-15-15ig778.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362703/original/file-20201009-15-15ig778.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The tsunami badly damaged buildings on Legundi island, 20 miles from Krakatoa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ravindra Jayaratne</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An advanced early warning system could be installed. It would involve tide gauges to detect an increase in water levels, satellite imagery and drone mapping, and a tsunami numerical model run in real time. When this system triggered a warning, it would be fed direct to residents who live in the coastal belt. Until such a system is in place, it will be vital to get the local community involved in disaster risk management and education.</p>
<h2>We need to tell people about the risks</h2>
<p>But preparing for future disasters isn’t just about building breakwaters or seawalls, though these defensive structures are clearly vital for preserving beaches for tourism and local businesses like fishing. It is also about educating people so that they feel psychologically healthier, more resilient and less anxious about facing the mega tsunamis of the future. </p>
<p>I have previously highlighted two examples of proactive community participation in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-protect-communities-from-natural-disasters-what-research-tells-us-144829">disaster-prone villages in the UK and Japan</a>. In both cases, residents know how to act in case of a natural disaster without depending on the authorities. It is certain that the decimation of the land and deaths could be reduced if the local communities are well prepared for natural disasters like tsunamis. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362707/original/file-20201009-13-1j48xsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three men hold up a tsunami evacuation route sign." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362707/original/file-20201009-13-1j48xsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362707/original/file-20201009-13-1j48xsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362707/original/file-20201009-13-1j48xsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362707/original/file-20201009-13-1j48xsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362707/original/file-20201009-13-1j48xsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362707/original/file-20201009-13-1j48xsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362707/original/file-20201009-13-1j48xsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Head to the hills.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ravindra Jayaratne</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Following the December 2018 Anak Krakatoa tsunami, local researchers and I conducted a <a href="http://coastal.usc.edu/ICCE/abstracts/Jayaratne%20.pdf">detailed field survey</a> of the coastline of Lampung province, on the north side of the strait, and some of the smaller nearby islands. We found a lack of proper tsunami defence structures or any early warning system, and houses and businesses built very close to the coast with no buffer zone. We identified high ground where residents could run to in case of a tsunami and put up signs with evacuation routes. </p>
<p>During this survey, I conducted a series of focus group meetings with local residents and businesses in order to make the communities more resilient and reduce their anxiety about future mega tsunamis in the area. I developed a tsunami wave propagation model to replicate the 2018 tsunami and most plausible future tsunami events, and to identify the most vulnerable coastal stretches, such as the village of Kunjir on the Lampung mainland. </p>
<p>I also combined field survey results, numerical model outputs and published information to make some recommendations for local communities. I suggested active collaboration between government departments and local institutions on the issue, and the formation of disaster preparedness teams for every village in Southern Lampung. The planning criteria for development of infrastructure along the coasts should also be put under review, and there should be a trauma healing programme for the victims of the 2018 Krakatoa tsunami.</p>
<p>We don’t know exactly when Krakatoa will next erupt, or if any future eruptions will match those of 1883 or even 2018. That’s a question for volcanologists. But we should do what we can to prepare for the worst.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147250/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ravindra Jayaratne receives funding from Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF), UK. </span></em></p>Indonesia has a warning system for tsunamis generated by earthquakes – but not volcanoes.Ravindra Jayaratne, Reader in Coastal Engineering, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1158822020-08-17T20:09:46Z2020-08-17T20:09:46ZThe world’s biggest waves: How climate change could trigger large landslides and ‘mega-tsunamis’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352587/original/file-20200812-18-1fd5181.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=71%2C40%2C2842%2C1917&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People inspect the damage following a tsunami at a village in Sumur, Indonesia, on Dec. 24, 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Fauzy Chaniago)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just over 60 years ago, a giant wave washed over the narrow inlet of <a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article/50/2/253/101271/the-alaska-earthquake-of-july-10-1958-giant-wave">Lituya Bay, Alaska</a>, knocking down the forest, sinking two fishing boats and claiming two lives. </p>
<p>A nearby earthquake had triggered a rockslide into the bay, suddenly displacing massive volumes of water. The large landslide tsunami reached a height of more than 160 metres and caused a run-up (the vertical height that a wave reaches up a slope) of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-008-0435-4">524 metres above sea level</a>. For perspective, imagine run-up to about the height of the CN Tower in Toronto (553 metres) or One World Trade Center in New York City (541 metres). </p>
<p>Large landslides, like the one that hit Lituya Bay in 1958, are mixtures of rock, soil and water that can move very quickly. When a landslide hits a body of water, it can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.04.001">generate waves</a>, especially in mountainous coastal areas, where steep slopes meet a fiord, lake or reservoir. Although mega-tsunamis are often <a href="https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2016/09/20/canary-islands-megatsunami/">sensationalized in the news</a>, real and scientifically documented events motivate new research. </p>
<p>In late July, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2020/jul/22/tsunami-warning-sirens-ring-out-after-78-magnitude-earthquake-in-alaska-video">7.8 magnitude earthquake near Perryville, Alaska</a>, triggered a tsunami warning for south Alaska, the Aleutian Islands and the Alaskan Peninsula. And scientists recently warned that a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/climate/alaska-landslide-tsunami.html">retreating glacier in a fiord in Prince William Sound, Alaska, had elevated the risk of a landslide and tsunami</a> in a popular fishing and tourism area not far from the town of Whittier. </p>
<p>International research efforts are urgently underway to better understand these major natural hazards. This is critically important, since climate change could contribute to increasing the number and size of these events.</p>
<h2>Recent giant wave events</h2>
<p>Triggered by either an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30475-w">earthquake or higher than normal rainfall</a>, another massive landslide occurred in Alaska in 2015. This one was in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004608">Taan Fiord</a>, 500 kilometres east of Anchorage. This event was so powerful, it released an enormous amount of energy and registered as a magnitude 4.9 earthquake, approximately equal to the explosive force of <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1998/ofr-98-0767/">340 tons of TNT</a>.</p>
<p>The landslide impact into the water was so strong that it generated <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggy086">seismic signals</a> that were detected at monitoring stations in the United States and around the world. The impact generated a wave with a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30475-w">run-up of 193 metres</a>. Thankfully, the area is remote and no one was killed. </p>
<p>However, the 2017 landslide into <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0926-4">Karrat Fiord, Greenland</a>, was deadly. It generated a 90 metre high tsunami at the impact site. This wave propagated 30 kilometres to the community of Nuugaatsiaq, wiping it out and killing four people. Other major landslide wave events have recently occurred in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0758-7">Norway</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31319-6_19">British Columbia</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1cANWrixLsc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A deadly landslide hit Karrat Fiord on Greenland’s west coast on June 17, 2017.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tsunamis are also generated by other mechanisms including earthquakes, volcanic collapse and submarine landslides. Earthquakes can trigger massive submarine landslides, which have been shown to be major contributors to the maximum tsunami run-up. This occurred when earthquakes struck <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2014.09.043">Japan in 2011</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.02.024">New Zealand in 2016</a>, resulting in run-up of 40 metres and seven metres in each case.</p>
<h2>Predicting the wave size</h2>
<p>Large landslide tsunamis are difficult or impossible to measure in the field. They typically occur in mountainous regions with very steep slopes, and therefore are usually far from big cities. Geologists have documented many of the cases by mapping the run-up elevations or deposits of trees and rocks washed off slopes after these events, like in Taan Fiord. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352586/original/file-20200812-18-1nf0rob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A landscape stripped of trees next to a fiord" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352586/original/file-20200812-18-1nf0rob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352586/original/file-20200812-18-1nf0rob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352586/original/file-20200812-18-1nf0rob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352586/original/file-20200812-18-1nf0rob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352586/original/file-20200812-18-1nf0rob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352586/original/file-20200812-18-1nf0rob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352586/original/file-20200812-18-1nf0rob.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In October 2015, a massive landslide fell into Taan Fiord and created a tsunami that stripped the land more than 10 kilometres from the slide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Ground Truth Trekking)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But these natural hazards pose a major threat to society. What if a landslide into a reservoir creates a wave that overtops a dam? This happened in 1963 in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-015-0769-z">Vajont, Italy</a>, killing more than 2,000 people who lived downstream. </p>
<p>A better understanding of how landslides generate waves is crucial. Experimental studies are a way to gain insight into these waves. Laboratory tests have led to empirical <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000037">equations to predict the size</a> of landslide tsunamis.</p>
<p>Recent research with detailed measurements using high-speed digital cameras is helping to determine the controls of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012177">landslide properties on the generation</a> of waves. This has led to new research at Queen’s University that has improved the theoretical understanding of how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.04.001">landslides transfer momentum to water</a> and generate waves. </p>
<p>The wave size depends on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.103538">thickness and speed of the slide</a> at impact. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014167">shape of these waves</a> can now be predicted and along with the wave amplitude (the distance from rest to crest), and be used as input to computer models for <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7080266">wave propagation</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015873">full simulation of landslide wave generation</a>. These models can help understand and predict the behaviour of waves at the laboratory scale and at the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0682-x">field scale in coastal environments</a>. </p>
<h2>Past and future events</h2>
<p>Since 1900, <a href="https://data.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iso?id=gov.noaa.ngdc.mgg.hazards:G02151">there have been eight confirmed massive wave events</a> where large landslides have generated waves greater than 30 metres high. Two of these led to over 100 deaths in Norway in the 1930s. Of these eight major events, four have occurred since 2000. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352584/original/file-20200812-22-17fqsch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A girl is passed from a boat into the arms of a rescuer" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352584/original/file-20200812-22-17fqsch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352584/original/file-20200812-22-17fqsch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352584/original/file-20200812-22-17fqsch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352584/original/file-20200812-22-17fqsch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352584/original/file-20200812-22-17fqsch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352584/original/file-20200812-22-17fqsch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352584/original/file-20200812-22-17fqsch.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rescuers help a young girl and her family during an evacuation of homes on Sebuku Island, Indonesia. On Dec. 22, 2018, the flank of the Anak Krakatau volcano failed, generating a tsunami that killed more than 400 people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Fauzy Chaniago)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, other events with smaller waves have devastated more populated coasts. For example, the collapse of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1130/G46517.1">Anak Krakatau volcano in 2018</a> generated a tsunami on the coast of Indonesia that caused over <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-48327-6">400 casualties and major infrastructure damage</a>.</p>
<p>Will more of these events occur in the future? Climate change could influence the frequency and magnitude of these natural hazards. </p>
<p>A warming climate certainly changes northern and alpine environments in many ways. This can include <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-permafrost/scientists-amazed-as-canadian-permafrost-thaws-70-years-early-idUSKCN1TJ1XN">permafrost thawing</a>, <a href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/looming-landslide-in-alaska-could-trigger-enormous-tsun-1843479019">retreating glaciers</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103745">iceberg calving</a>, more frequent freeze-thaw cycles and increased rainfall or other <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.01.006">hydraulic triggers</a>. All of these can contribute to <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000547">destabilizing rock slopes</a> and increase the risk of a major landslide into water. </p>
<p>These natural hazards can’t be prevented, but damage to infrastructure and populations can be minimized. This can be achieved through scientific understanding of the physical processes, site-specific engineering risk analysis and coastal management of hazard-prone regions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115882/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan P. Mulligan receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Take receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the
Canada Research Chairs program.</span></em></p>Massive landslides can trigger destructive and deadly tsunamis, and climate change could make them worse.Ryan P. Mulligan, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, OntarioAndy Take, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1394372020-07-09T10:23:36Z2020-07-09T10:23:36ZFive must-read novels on the environment and climate crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345536/original/file-20200703-33939-cwkazf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=79%2C49%2C4014%2C2669&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pexels</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the start of <a href="https://theconversation.com/volunteering-mutual-aid-and-lockdown-has-shifted-our-sense-of-happiness-141352">lockdown</a>, more of us have taken to our bicycles, grown our own vegetables and baked our own bread. So it’s not surprising it has been suggested we should use this experience to rethink our approach to the climate crisis.</p>
<p>Reading some environmental literature – sometimes called “eco-literature” – can also give us the opportunity to think about the world around us in different ways. </p>
<p>Eco-literature, has a long literary tradition that dates back to the writings of 19th-century <a href="https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199827251/obo-9780199827251-0206.xml">English romantic poets and US authors</a>. And the growing awareness of climate change has accelerated the development of environmental writings.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341321/original/file-20200611-80762-1uoc74z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341321/original/file-20200611-80762-1uoc74z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341321/original/file-20200611-80762-1uoc74z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341321/original/file-20200611-80762-1uoc74z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341321/original/file-20200611-80762-1uoc74z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=922&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341321/original/file-20200611-80762-1uoc74z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1159&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341321/original/file-20200611-80762-1uoc74z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1159&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341321/original/file-20200611-80762-1uoc74z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1159&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2><a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Animals-People/Indra-Sinha/9781416578796">Animal’s People </a></h2>
<p><strong>by Indra Sinha</strong></p>
<p>Indra Sinha’s Animal’s People, looks at the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/dec/08/bhopals-tragedy-has-not-stopped-the-urban-disaster-still-claiming-lives-35-years-on">Bhopal gas explosion</a> in India – one of the most horrific environmental disasters of the 20th-century. A poisonous gas leak from a US-owned pesticide plant killed several thousand people and injured more than half a million.</p>
<p>The main character in the novel, Animal, is a 19-year-old orphaned boy who survives the explosion with a deformed body. This means he must “crawl like a dog on all fours”. Animal does not hate his body, but embraces his animistic identity – offering an unconventional <a href="https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:osobl/9780195394429.001.0001/acprof-9780195394429-chapter-11">non-human perspective</a>.</p>
<p>With this wounded “human-animal” figure, Sinha puts forward his critique of India’s postcolonial conditions and demonstrates how Western capitalist domination continues to damage people and the environment in contemporary postcolonial society.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345530/original/file-20200703-33926-1qo3qfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345530/original/file-20200703-33926-1qo3qfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/345530/original/file-20200703-33926-1qo3qfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345530/original/file-20200703-33926-1qo3qfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345530/original/file-20200703-33926-1qo3qfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345530/original/file-20200703-33926-1qo3qfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345530/original/file-20200703-33926-1qo3qfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/345530/original/file-20200703-33926-1qo3qfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2><a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/330739/my-year-of-meats-by-ruth-ozeki/9780140280463/readers-guide/">My Year of Meats</a></h2>
<p><strong>by Ruth Ozeki</strong> </p>
<p>Ruth Ozeki’s novel intermingles themes such as motherhood, environmental justice and <a href="http://dspace.unive.it/handle/10579/15557">ecological practice</a> to explore the appalling use of growth hormones in the US meat industry from a feminist ecocritical perspective.</p>
<p>The novel employs <a href="https://academic.oup.com/isle/article/24/3/457/4036100">a “documentary” narrative mode</a> and begins with a TV cooking show – sponsored by a meat company. While filming the show, Jane Takagi-Little, the director, encounters a vegetarian lesbian couple who reveal the ugly truth about the use of growth hormones within the livestock industry. The encounter motivates Jane to undertake a documentary project to uncover how growth hormones poison women’s bodies.</p>
<hr>
<p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-swine-flu-going-to-be-the-next-pandemic-141825">Is swine flu going to be the next pandemic?</a>
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<p>Through a deliberate choice to make all her main characters female, Ozeki draws her readers’ attention to nonconforming, atypical female figures who rebel against social or cultural norms inherent in patriarchal capitalist society.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341330/original/file-20200611-80766-1d9sypv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341330/original/file-20200611-80766-1d9sypv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341330/original/file-20200611-80766-1d9sypv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341330/original/file-20200611-80766-1d9sypv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341330/original/file-20200611-80766-1d9sypv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341330/original/file-20200611-80766-1d9sypv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341330/original/file-20200611-80766-1d9sypv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341330/original/file-20200611-80766-1d9sypv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1158&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2><a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/103/1031506/disgrace/9780099540984.html">Disgrace </a></h2>
<p><strong>by J.M. Coetzee</strong> </p>
<p>In Disgrace, J.M. Coetzee, a celebrated Noble Prize laureate, who is also <a href="https://www.peta.org/blog/nobel-laureate-jm-coetzee-animal-death-camps/">known for his outspoken defence of animal rights</a>, interweaves a brutal dog-killing scene with the gang-rape of a white South African woman by three black men. </p>
<p>Praised as one of the South African postcolonial canons, the novel explores complex issues of white supremacy and anticolonial resistance as well as racial and gender violence. It ties these issues with humans’ domination and exploitation of the animals and further challenges our ethical position. </p>
<p>The combination of these two acts – the killing of dogs and the rape of a woman – can be read as Coetzee’s ecocritique of the colonial violence against nonhuman beings and the natural environment.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341332/original/file-20200611-80742-8s5peb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341332/original/file-20200611-80742-8s5peb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341332/original/file-20200611-80742-8s5peb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341332/original/file-20200611-80742-8s5peb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341332/original/file-20200611-80742-8s5peb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1137&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341332/original/file-20200611-80742-8s5peb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1137&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341332/original/file-20200611-80742-8s5peb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1137&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<h2><a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/221242/the-man-with-the-compound-eyes-by-wu-ming-yi/">The Man with the Compound Eyes </a></h2>
<p><strong>by Wu Ming-yi</strong> </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-novels-allow-us-to-imagine-possible-futures-read-these-crucial-seven-124216">Climate fiction</a> or the so-called “<a href="https://theconversation.com/cli-fi-novels-humanise-the-science-of-climate-change-and-leading-authors-are-getting-in-on-the-act-51270">cli-fi</a>” takes on genuine scientific discovery or phenomenon and combines this with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/cli-fi-literary-genre-rises-to-prominence-in-the-shadow-of-climate-change-25686">dystopian or over the top twist</a>. This approach underlines the agency of non-human beings, environments or even phenomena – such as trees, the ocean, or a tsunami.</p>
<hr>
<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/imagining-both-utopian-and-dystopian-climate-futures-is-crucial-which-is-why-cli-fi-is-so-important-123029">Imagining both utopian and dystopian climate futures is crucial – which is why cli-fi is so important</a>
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<p>Wu Ming-yi’s novel is composed of four different narratives: a Taiwanese university professor, a boy from the mythical Wayo Wayo island and two other city-dwelling indigenous characters. Their stories are viewed in fragments from the multiple perspectives of the “compound eyes”. At the backdrop is a tsunami which causes <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/great-pacific-garbage-patch/">the Great Pacific garbage patch</a> to crash on to the eastern coast of Taiwan and the fictionalised Pacific island of Wayo Wayo that brings together all their stories.</p>
<p>Wu blends this unrealistic event with the real-life trash vortex to draw our attention to the severe environmental problems of waste dumping and our unsustainable lifestyles.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341324/original/file-20200611-80774-gegzcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341324/original/file-20200611-80774-gegzcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341324/original/file-20200611-80774-gegzcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341324/original/file-20200611-80774-gegzcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341324/original/file-20200611-80774-gegzcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341324/original/file-20200611-80774-gegzcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341324/original/file-20200611-80774-gegzcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341324/original/file-20200611-80774-gegzcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2><a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/111/1115230/the-overstory/9781784708245.html">The Overstory </a></h2>
<p><strong>by Richard Powers</strong> </p>
<p>The Overstory is praised by critics for its ambition to bring awareness to the life of trees and its advocacy to an <a href="https://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/DSLCC/documenti/DEP/numeri/n41-42/13_Masiero.pdf">ecocentric way of life</a>. Powers’ novel sets out with nine distinctive characters - which represent the “roots” of trees. Gradually their stories and lives intertwine to form the “trunk”, the “crown” and the “seeds”.</p>
<p>One of the characters, Dr Patricia Westerford, publishes a paper showing trees are social beings because they can communicate and warn each other when a foreign intrusion occurs. Her idea, though presented as controversial in the novel, is actually <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/12/peter-wohlleben-man-who-believes-trees-talk-to-each-other">well supported by today’s scientific studies</a>.</p>
<p>Despite her groundbreaking work, Dr Westerford ends up taking her own life by drinking poisonous tree extracts at a conference - to make it clear humans can only save trees and the planet by ceasing to exist.</p>
<p>These are just a few books with a specific focus on environmental issues – perfect for your <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-things-historical-literature-can-teach-us-about-the-climate-crisis-127762">current reading list</a>. To everyone’s surprise, this global lockdown has given us some eco-benefits, such as a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/19/lockdowns-trigger-dramatic-fall-global-carbon-emissions">sudden dip in carbon emissions</a> and the huge decline in our reliance on <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/renewable-power-surges-pandemic-scrambles-global-energy-outlook">traditional fossil fuel energy</a>. Maybe then if we can learn from this experience we can move towards a greener future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139437/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ti-han Chang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Eco-fiction to help you rethink your role in the climate crisis.Ti-han Chang, Lecturer in Asia-Pacific Studies, University of Central LancashireLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1362822020-04-24T08:05:46Z2020-04-24T08:05:46ZWhy political will is important to reduce risks of disaster<p><em>This article is part of a series to commemorate Indonesian National Disaster Preparedness Day on April 26.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Political commitments are often cited as essential for governments and people to reduce potential human suffering in <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/files/55465_globalplatform2017proceedings.pdf">disasters</a> ranging from <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/17-01-2020-from-political-commitment-to-concrete-reality-moving-ahead-on-uhc-in-2020">disease</a>, <a href="http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2005/1000147/index.html">hunger and poverty</a> to <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/new-un-report-says-climate-crisis-driving-increase-in-number-of-people-suffering-from-hunger">climate vulnerability</a>.</p>
<p>The United Nations’ <a href="https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030">Sendai Framework</a> for disaster risk reduction (DRR) underlines the need for political will to apply <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-015-0057-2">proactive measures, including prevention and mitigation, rather than reactive responses</a>. </p>
<p>Political will can be defined as an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.11.006">aggregate of commitments</a> made by leaders and decision-makers. They include those in the executive agencies (presidents, governors) and in the legislative arm (lawmakers, politicians). </p>
<p>They have the authority to allocate resources such as funds for poverty reduction, disaster mitigation, or prevention of epidemics. They are often known as policymakers within the government sectors.</p>
<p>A leader who fails to prioritise an agenda of public concern, such as disaster risk reduction (DRR) or public health, can be considered to have low political will. </p>
<p>As a signatory of the Sendai Framework, Indonesia has failed to demonstrate political will to allocate funding for mitigation and disaster risk reduction. DRR funding accounts for only 7% of its total program budget <a href="http://hss.ulb.uni-bonn.de/2011/2451/2451.pdf">from 2007 to 2012</a> and in <a href="https://bnpb.go.id/dipa">recent fiscal years</a>. </p>
<p>DRR agendas including mitigation measures should receive at least 25%, and more is better. </p>
<p>For Indonesia, a country situated in the Ring of Fire and prone to natural hazards and disasters, providing an adequate budget is important. And that requires political commitment from leaders and politicians. </p>
<h2>Why is political will important for disaster reduction?</h2>
<p>Political will is often seen as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918307751?via%3Dihub">a key factor in resilience</a>.</p>
<p>The problem is most political commitments for societal development and progress largely focus on short-term and must-do-now agendas. Examples include national economic development and fulfilling popular promises to the voters.</p>
<p>In “normal times”, <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3.pdf">disasters are seen as future events that can be delayed</a>. </p>
<p>But in the middle of a large crisis – like the COVID-19 pandemic – political leaders often adopt policies like committing extremely large emergency management funds that are impossible to use in anticipation during pre-disaster stages. </p>
<p>This is entirely logical: first things first; desperate time call for desperate measures. </p>
<p>However, after the crisis ends, most political leaders shift their commitments and allocate resources to other sectors. </p>
<p>Their political mood will go back to business as usual. They will again focus on short-term goals in areas like the economy, rather than on anticipatory policies on issues like climate change, disaster mitigation and pandemic prevention. </p>
<p>For example, there was a spike in the budget allocation for BNPB to deal with catastrophic forest fires in 2015. Data suggest the <a href="https://berkas.dpr.go.id/puskajianggaran/buletin-apbn/public-file/buletin-apbn-public-67.pdf">allocation then declined significantly from 2016 until 2018</a> before Indonesia was hit again by series of disaster events in late 2018. </p>
<h2>How does Indonesia fare?</h2>
<p>Despite its low DRR budget allocation, Indonesia has a relatively high level of DRR knowledge compared with other countries in Southeast Asia. Indonesia is among countries that rank high on the bureaucratic preparedness index, but still behind Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329643/original/file-20200422-13243-qwciex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Political will for disaster risk reduction in ASEAN countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Lassa et. al. Measuring political will: An index of commitment to disaster risk reduction, Elsevier</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indonesia scores relatively low in terms of public and private investment in disaster resilience. This is measured by general and catastrophe insurance penetration, integration of DRR with environment and climate policy, commitment to building codes, and disaster impact assessment in development project. </p>
<p>Interestingly, some of these data are based on formal information provided by the Indonesian government to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/progress/reports/index.php?o=pol_year&o2=DESC&ps=50&hid=0&cid=80&x=14&y=4">from 2009 to 2015</a>. These include building codes and disaster impact assessment in development projects.</p>
<p>Despite having considerable disaster legislation, Indonesia’s overall DRR governability is still lower than Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines and ASEAN’s average. </p>
<p>Having good political will does not always translate into real policy reform on the ground. But no sustainable change can happen without political willingness.</p>
<h2>How to measure political will?</h2>
<p>How do we measure political will for DRR, including for climate change and global health risks?</p>
<p>I worked with collaborators in Australia, Indonesia and Singapore to develop our own framework. This is possible due to the unique set-up <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/progress/">used by UNDRR</a> to develop a global reporting system. Countries provide self-assessment of their progress in disaster risk reduction. </p>
<p>These assessments use “scorecard” analysis that can be <a href="http://hss.ulb.uni-bonn.de/2011/2451/2451.htm">easily translated</a> into a global database.</p>
<p>Five variables we used in measuring political will for DRR are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>countries’ commitment to understanding their disaster risk</p></li>
<li><p>governability of disaster risk</p></li>
<li><p>willingness to invest in risk reduction</p></li>
<li><p>bureaucratic promptness and preparedness</p></li>
<li><p>political will to develop early warning systems. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>These variables all contribute to the total “political will”, or the aggregation of commitments to reduce disaster risks that arise from natural hazards and climatic risk. </p>
<p>In other words, the aggregation of political will – as shown by both policy (including laws, regulations, planning) and implementation – will serve as predictors of countries’ disaster risks.</p>
<p>Getting detailed specific data on political will relating to DRR is often difficult. However, by using general governance data – such as <a href="https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/worldwide-bureaucracy-indicators">bureaucracy index</a> and <a href="http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/#home">rule of law and regulatory quality data</a> – we can predict countries’ disaster governability.</p>
<p>The research result is not surprising. Political will is generally low in Africa and Asia-Pacific. It is highest in <a href="https://www.oecd.org/about/">OECD</a> countries and Europe, followed by Southeast Asia, Latin America and Caribbean nations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328634/original/file-20200417-152614-ppthc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Political will for DRR knowledge in selected countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lassa et. al. 2019. Measuring political will: An index of commitment to disaster risk reduction. International journal of disaster risk reduction. 34:64-74</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136282/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonatan A Lassa tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>What is political will or political commitment to disaster risk reduction? Why is it important to measure political commitment? And how to measure it?Jonatan A Lassa, Senior Lecturer, Humanitarian Emergency and Disaster Management, College of Indigenous Futures, Arts and Society, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1234282020-01-06T12:06:32Z2020-01-06T12:06:32ZA new way to identify a rare type of earthquake in time to issue lifesaving tsunami warnings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308024/original/file-20191219-11946-1t4d9ok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=350%2C0%2C5065%2C3700&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This unusual earthquake type generates an outsized tsunami. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/1fEYDfuGli0">camila castillo/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just a few times in a century, somewhere on the globe, a rare “tsunami earthquake” occurs. These are mysterious because, while they’re just medium-sized as earthquakes go, they cause disproportionately large and devastating tsunamis. This type of midsized earthquake is very different than an event like the <a href="http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/outreach/highlights/sumatra/what.html">2004 earthquake in Sumatra</a> – a very big magnitude 9.2 event which unsurprisingly produced a huge tsunami.</p>
<p>The most recent tsunami earthquake happened in 2010. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046552">A magnitude 7.8 earthquake</a> <a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1673:301&catid=1444&Itemid=1444">off the Mentawai Islands in Indonesia</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046498">set off a tsunami</a> that was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009159">over 50 feet in height</a> in some places – much greater than seismologists would predict based just on the earthquake’s size. <a href="https://earthobservatory.sg/outreach/natural-hazard-outreach/west-sumatra-tectonics-and-tsunami-hazard">509 people were killed</a>, and 15,000 more were displaced or left homeless. </p>
<p>Tsunami earthquakes are particularly destructive and dangerous because the massive tsunami waves can hit local coastal communities within just five to 15 minutes – before officials can issue a warning. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083989">based on our analysis</a> of previously unavailable closeup observations of the 2010 Mentawai event, my colleagues <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8YD_3R8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">and I</a> think there is a way to determine that an event is a tsunami earthquake in time to warn people that an unexpectedly large wave is on the way.</p>
<h2>Earthquakes under the ocean</h2>
<p>The Earth’s surface is made up of <a href="https://theconversation.com/plate-tectonics-new-findings-fill-out-the-50-year-old-theory-that-explains-earths-landmasses-55424">floating tectonic plates</a> that fit together like a slightly imperfect jigsaw puzzle. These plates are moving next to, under or away from each other.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308389/original/file-20200102-11904-tusj3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308389/original/file-20200102-11904-tusj3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308389/original/file-20200102-11904-tusj3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308389/original/file-20200102-11904-tusj3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308389/original/file-20200102-11904-tusj3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308389/original/file-20200102-11904-tusj3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308389/original/file-20200102-11904-tusj3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308389/original/file-20200102-11904-tusj3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An earthquake along a subduction zone happens when the leading edge of the overriding plate breaks free and springs seaward, raising the seafloor and the water above it. This uplift starts a tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/earthquake-starts-tsunami">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="https://www.livescience.com/43220-subduction-zone-definition.html">a subduction zone</a>, one tectonic plate is sinking beneath another. This builds up stresses over time and will eventually create an earthquake. Most typical subduction-zone earthquakes occur roughly 10 to 30 miles down, in an area where the rocks are rigid and strong on the fault between the two tectonic plates.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the shallowest area of a subduction zone, closest to the seafloor, is made up of soft sediments that are not very strong. Earthquakes rarely occur only here, because stresses mostly don’t build up in these soft, weak rocks.</p>
<p>Geoscientists define an earthquake’s overall size with its magnitude. Earthquake magnitude describes how much “work” is accomplished by the earthquake moving the fault – more work for either more movement, or for moving more rigid rock.</p>
<p>Very large earthquakes, like the magnitude 9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan in 2011, are so big that they break the deeper part of the subduction zone, but also continue upwards to break the shallow part of a subduction zone. This rapid earthquake motion moves the seafloor and <a href="https://www.iris.edu/hq/inclass/animation/subduction_zone_tsunamis_generated_by_megathrust_earthquakes">creates a tsunami</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293875/original/file-20190924-51434-1ytyrz6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293875/original/file-20190924-51434-1ytyrz6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293875/original/file-20190924-51434-1ytyrz6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293875/original/file-20190924-51434-1ytyrz6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293875/original/file-20190924-51434-1ytyrz6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293875/original/file-20190924-51434-1ytyrz6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293875/original/file-20190924-51434-1ytyrz6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293875/original/file-20190924-51434-1ytyrz6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cartoon depicting the amount of movement in five earthquakes. The 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake moved the fault much more – over 65 feet compared to about 15 feet for the others – and the movement occurred much closer to the seafloor than in any of the other earthquakes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sahakian et al. (2019), GRL</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What sets tsunami quakes apart</h2>
<p>“Tsunami earthquakes” are strange in that they happen almost entirely in the soft, weak section of the fault.</p>
<p>Because tsunami earthquakes break such soft rock, they happen slower, and create much more movement on or near the seafloor in comparison to a normal subduction-zone earthquake of the same size that happens in rigid rock. This in turn creates a much larger tsunami than expected. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306913/original/file-20191214-85412-1b87exs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306913/original/file-20191214-85412-1b87exs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306913/original/file-20191214-85412-1b87exs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306913/original/file-20191214-85412-1b87exs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306913/original/file-20191214-85412-1b87exs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306913/original/file-20191214-85412-1b87exs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306913/original/file-20191214-85412-1b87exs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306913/original/file-20191214-85412-1b87exs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Seismograms showing how much the ground shook from six similarly sized earthquakes, at seismometers all about the same distance from their earthquake. You’d expect the shaking to be comparable. The 2010 Mentawai earthquake seismogram is at the bottom in orange, and shows significantly less shaking than any of the others.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Modified from Sahakian et al. (2019), GRL.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A tsunami earthquake might have the same magnitude as an earthquake that occurs in rigid rock but produces much less of what seismologists call high-frequency energy. </p>
<p>Think of breaking a thick slab of concrete – which is strong and would produce an audible bang with both low and high-pitched noise – versus breaking a loaf of bread, which makes almost no sound at all. In the Earth, “sound” is the shaking you feel under your feet. The soft bread break is like a tsunami earthquake that doesn’t release a lot of high-frequency energy, and thus doesn’t create as much shaking as we would expect for its magnitude.</p>
<h2>Sensing quakes in time to warn</h2>
<p>Currently, officials rely on knowing an earthquake’s magnitude and location to issue tsunami warnings within tens of minutes. But this doesn’t work in the case of tsunami earthquakes, because the earthquake’s magnitude doesn’t match up with the size of the tsunami it produces.</p>
<p>Instead, to figure out whether an earthquake is in fact a tsunami earthquake, scientists compare its seismic magnitude measured from afar with the amount of high frequency radiated energy it produced, as recorded by far away stations.</p>
<p>If the ratio of energy to magnitude is very low, it’s a tsunami earthquake – basically, its shaking was far too weak for its magnitude because it was breaking soft rock. Instead, its energy is of the low-frequency type: Rather than strong shaking, its energy goes into large slow movement of the seafloor and the ensuing tsunami.</p>
<p>The problem is that in the past, scientists had never recorded one of these elusive earthquakes closeup in what we call the near-field – within about 180 miles (300 kilometers) or so. Instead, scientists have had to find an earthquake’s energy-to-magnitude ratio using seismic waves that have traveled all the way from the epicenter of the earthquake across the world to where researchers can measure them. This process is relatively slow, so we haven’t been able to identify tsunami earthquakes quickly enough to warn people in time, before the wave hits the coast.</p>
<p>Now my colleagues and I have for the first time analyzed data recorded by seismic stations that happened to be near the epicenter of the 2010 Mentawai earthquake. We think we have figured out a new way to identify the danger of a future tsunami earthquake, faster.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308439/original/file-20200103-11951-8wlrvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308439/original/file-20200103-11951-8wlrvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308439/original/file-20200103-11951-8wlrvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308439/original/file-20200103-11951-8wlrvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308439/original/file-20200103-11951-8wlrvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308439/original/file-20200103-11951-8wlrvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308439/original/file-20200103-11951-8wlrvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308439/original/file-20200103-11951-8wlrvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tsunamis can take a terrible toll, as for this Indonesian family that lost their father and their home in the Mentawai disaster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Indonesia-Disasters/77a6343c59ee46199456933fc238e848/4/0">AP Photo/Tundra Laksamana</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Closer and quicker proxies</h2>
<p>Our new study used the same concept of comparing the energy released by an earthquake to its seismic magnitude – but based on data from geographically close to the event. Instead of looking at energy measurements recorded at a distance, we used two proxies.</p>
<p>To look directly at how much the ground shook, we used seismic stations onshore near the epicenters of 16 earthquakes, including the Mentawai one in 2010. Because the amount the ground accelerates when seismic waves pass through illustrates how much high frequency energy is in the earthquake, this information was a stand-in for the data we would traditionally get from the far-flung teleseismic stations. Low accelerations mean little high frequency energy.</p>
<p>For the normal earthquakes we looked at, the accelerations from near-field seismometers were close to what we’d expect for each earthquake’s magnitude. In comparison, the 2010 Mentawai earthquake’s accelerations were closer to what we would expect for a magnitude 6.3 earthquake – whereas the earthquake was actually a magnitude 7.8, and produced a tsunami we’d expect for an event of greater than magnitude 8.</p>
<p>We also looked at GPS stations close to the earthquakes. They can show us how much the ground actually moved or was displaced, and measure the earthquake magnitude itself.</p>
<p>Using these measurements together allowed us to compare the amount of energy in the earthquake with respect to its magnitude – without waiting for the seismic waves to travel across the globe. Instead, we would have been able to identify a tsunami earthquake immediately by looking at how low the accelerations were on local seismometers in comparison to the magnitude of the earthquake based on GPS readings.</p>
<p>We think our finding is really promising because these near-field measurements are available immediately – even while an earthquake is happening. Seismologists could use this approach in the future, to identify a tsunami earthquake right after it happens, and provide warning to the nearby coast before the tsunami wave arrives.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123428/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Valerie Sahakian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A tricky kind of earthquake that happens in the soft rock of the ocean floor causes much larger tsunamis than their magnitude would predict. New research pinpoints a way to identify the danger fast.Valerie Sahakian, Assistant Professor of Geophysics, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1242752019-09-27T02:08:01Z2019-09-27T02:08:01ZLessons for a destabilising planet: insights from the 2009 South Pacific earthquake-tsunami disaster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294470/original/file-20190926-51401-1onj5kr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The South Pacific was rocked by two nearly simultaneous earthquakes and a devastating tsunami.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Tamara McLean</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just before 7am on September 29, 2009, a <a href="https://www-nature-com.ezproxy1.library.usyd.edu.au/articles/nature09214">magnitude 8</a> earthquake struck the sea floor in the central South Pacific, about 190kms south of Samoa. It was exactly the sort of earthquake – in fact, it was two <a href="https://www-nature-com.ezproxy1.library.usyd.edu.au/articles/nature09292">almost simultaneous quakes</a> – that create devastating tsunami.</p>
<p>The Earth’s crust tore apart, triggering a region-wide tsunami. Within minutes it inundated Samoa’s coastline, before rolling on to American Samoa and Tonga. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-after-an-earthquake-how-does-a-tsunami-happen-83732">Explainer: after an earthquake, how does a tsunami happen?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While a tsunami warning was issued by the <a href="https://ptwc.weather.gov/">Pacific Tsunami Warning Center</a> and relayed by Samoan officials, it was not rebroadcast everywhere. Regardless, the tsunami arrived too quickly for many to escape. In Samoa, 189 people died when the tsunami reached up to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Samoa_earthquake_and_tsunami">14 metres above normal sea level</a> and many more were injured across the region. Hundreds of millions of dollars of damage was done.</p>
<p>Ten years on from this tragedy, it’s time to look back at the lessons we learned – and how they can help us adapt to a rapidly changing climate, which is making similar natural disasters more and more likely.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294478/original/file-20190927-51401-1xxca83.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Location of earthquake shown by yellow star in South Pacific south of Samoa (Source: USGS)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A new approach to post-disaster research</h2>
<p>As is common after a major disaster, Samoa’s government and emergency services quickly began <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2010.01185.x">assessing the damage and the needs of affected communities</a>, to direct relief and recovery efforts. The government did an excellent job given the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-006-9001-5">logistical challenges</a> that face small island developing states after such events.</p>
<p>It is also common for researchers from a wide range of disciplines, from earth sciences to engineering to health studies, to visit impacted areas to study the causes and effects of such disasters, and make suggestions to improve future disaster management planning and practice.</p>
<p>Such researcher-led field reconnaissance surveys are usually small, comprising just a few individual researchers and usually from the same discipline. These expeditions are quickly organised, and the researchers get in and out fast – too often focused on their own interests, and not working with the government or scientists of the affected country. This means serious ethical issues can arise. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-waves-the-tsunami-risk-in-australia-60623">Making waves: the tsunami risk in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>After this earthquake and tsunami, I thought we could do better. </p>
<p>I proposed bringing incoming researchers from multiple disciplines, to collaborate with local communities and Samoan researchers and officials. This proposal was accepted, and I was quickly appointed to head up what became the largest ever <a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=2055&Itemid=2376&lang=en">international post-tsunami survey team</a>.</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=2070&Itemid=2388">team</a> ended up comprising nearly 200 local and international participants working in multidisciplinary teams for up to a month between October and November 2009. </p>
<p>Critically, for the first time, the team negotiated between incoming scientists with specific questions, and local scientists and the government to ensure their research really did benefit Samoan communities.</p>
<p>As team leader, I reported daily to the prime minister and King of Samoa updating them on research findings, gave local TV and radio interviews on how things were going and worked with researchers to nudge field activity in directions that benefited everyone. </p>
<p>At the end of the survey the team provided a report to the prime minister and government on our findings. This set a new global benchmark for how post-disaster surveys could be done.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294492/original/file-20190927-65812-18f3iag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A boy looks through the wreckage of a Samoan village after the 2009 tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Miller/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The lessons we learned</h2>
<p>As a consequence of this approach, I was appointed by the United Nations to co-lead a global working group that rewrote the handbook on how <a href="http://itic.ioc-unesco.org/images/stories/itst_tsunami_survey/survey_documents/field_survey_guide/ITST_FieldSurveyGuide_229456E.pdf">post-disaster surveys should be organised and operated</a>.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/earth-science-reviews/vol/107/issue/1">learned so much</a> from the Samoan survey team, and from continuing research efforts over the last ten years following other major disasters such as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami">2011 Japan earthquake-tsunami</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan">2013 Philippines Typhoon Haiyan</a> disasters. Key lessons include that:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>geological studies show us these large hazard events occur much more frequently than we realised before</p></li>
<li><p>natural ecosystems on which humans depend exhibit both great vulnerability and resilience to the forces of nature, but human management of those ecosystems really affects resilience</p></li>
<li><p>different types of buildings experience damage and destruction in different ways. This knowledge can be used in land use zoning and improving building codes and design standards</p></li>
<li><p>despite continuing public education campaigns about natural hazards and disasters, individuals, families and communities still don’t always do what emergency management agencies want them to do (for example, evacuate to high ground if you feel a strong earthquake at the coast)</p></li>
<li><p>human beings are the most remarkable of species – capable of incredible resilience and generosity in the aftermath of disasters</p></li>
<li><p>there is still so much we do not understand about natural hazards and disasters</p></li>
<li><p>as a global community, we must work hard to reduce inequality which makes too many people vulnerable to disasters, and rise to the challenge presented by human-induced climate change.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Future disasters on a rapidly changing planet</h2>
<p><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters">Disasters are on the rise</a> and climate change will only make things much worse. Earth is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a">destabilising rapidly</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Climate change</a> (coupled with <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/annualreport/2018/index.php#cover">environmental degradation</a> and an <a href="https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/population/index.html">increasing population</a> which increases exposure to hazard events) are driving more frequent and intense disasters. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-are-natural-disasters-on-the-rise-39232">Explainer: are natural disasters on the rise?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In fact, according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, weather and climate related disasters have more than <a href="https://www.unisdr.org/">doubled over the last 40 years</a>. They have <a href="https://www.unisdr.org/we/advocate/climate-change">said</a>, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>90% of recorded major disasters caused by natural hazards from 1995 to 2015 were linked to climate and weather including floods, storms, heatwaves and drought.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294481/original/file-20190927-51401-19lxhmu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of people affected by disasters of different types between 1998 and 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.unisdr.org/">UNISDR</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A heart wrenching factor is the poorest people around the world always bear the greatest burden of loss to natural disasters due to <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/61119">inequality and poverty</a>. Layered on top of the particular vulnerability of poorer people to disasters, global statistics show the Asian region experiences the most disasters of all types.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/294480/original/file-20190927-51457-jwcac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Occurrence of different types of disasters by regions. Cylinders show the percentage of each particular disaster in a given region in relation to the whole world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0169555X02000831?token=519E6E8A21B04AEF9004BA6F70F7E4251F378B079CA64DB465737FB037E0B5E9C9FD781C04F8814EA96C9234DCD3F6AB">Alcantara-Ayala, 2002</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Earth is unique, dynamic, fragile and dangerous. Human activity is driving changes that, if not addressed soon, will result in disasters in the near future that are outside our experience and capacity to cope with.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124275/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dale Dominey-Howes receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Disaster Mitigation Program and the Global Resilience Partnership. </span></em></p>A devastating quake and tsunami in the Pacific Ocean prompted a new kind of post-disaster research. Ten years on, we need these lessons to prepare for a precarious future.Dale Dominey-Howes, Professor of Hazards and Disaster Risk Sciences, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1164532019-07-24T08:33:55Z2019-07-24T08:33:55ZStorm surge: this misunderstood threat can be every bit as deadly as a tsunami<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285345/original/file-20190723-110187-e1yswv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/14-november-2013-tacloban-philippines-typhoon-615584804?studio=1">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the most powerful tropical storms ever recorded, <a href="https://phys.org/news/2018-11-super-typhoon-haiyan-deadly.html">Typhoon Haiyan</a> rampaged across the central Philippines in 2013, causing the deaths of more than 7,000 people. The devastating consequences were not simply the result of a 7.5 metre “<a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/stormsurge-stormtide.html">storm surge</a>” but also down to the fact that few people actually <a href="https://phys.org/news/2018-11-super-typhoon-haiyan-deadly.html">knew what it meant</a> when there were warnings of the phenomenon, and the threat it posed to the population.</p>
<p>Storm surge does not occur as inland flooding caused by heavy rainfall, or as coastal flooding that occurs any time low-lying land is inundated by seawater. Storm surge is an abnormal rise in water levels over the estimated high tide. Simply put, it is ocean water forced by powerful hurricane winds towards the coast. Such hurricane-force winds are always hazardous to coastal communities and infrastructure, but often the most devastating consequences for local populations are due to storm surge. </p>
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<h2>What is unique about storm surge?</h2>
<p>Storm surges are unique in their characteristics, because of their high sensitivity to the slightest change in storm parameters such as speed, pressure, intensity, direction of approach, position of the coast or the depth of the ocean.</p>
<p>Storm parameters tend to change rapidly during the lifecycle of a hurricane, increasing uncertainty around storm surge water levels. Despite being regarded as a secondary hazard, storm surge often poses more of a threat than strong hurricane winds, usually regarded as the primary hazard.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285135/original/file-20190722-11339-5mzyp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285135/original/file-20190722-11339-5mzyp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285135/original/file-20190722-11339-5mzyp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285135/original/file-20190722-11339-5mzyp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=280&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285135/original/file-20190722-11339-5mzyp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285135/original/file-20190722-11339-5mzyp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285135/original/file-20190722-11339-5mzyp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Storm surge is an abnormal rise in water level over the estimated high tide, forced by hurricane winds on to the land.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">National Hurricane Center/NOAA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Coastal areas are largely altered by various other factors such as erosion and depletion of storm buffers such as reefs, wetlands and salt marshes through day-to-day interaction with the dynamics of the sea. So the coastline is constantly changing, making it more vulnerable and paving the way for new inundation levels from the next storm surge.</p>
<p>Sometimes storm surge is confused with <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/tsunami.html">tsunamis</a> (as both involve a wall of water rushing towards the coastline), or <a href="https://ocean.weather.gov/defining_storm_surge.pdf">storm tides</a>, which are a combination of storm surge and tide over and above the normal water level. Both phenomena result in coastal inundations and can cause substantial loss of life and economic damage.</p>
<p>Tsunamis can be seismic, meaning they can result from the vibrations of the Earth such as earthquakes, or non-seismic – caused by phenomena such as meteorites or asteroids. But storm surge is only associated with tropical or <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/extratropical-cyclone">extra-tropical cyclones</a> where heavy winds trigger the abnormal rise in water levels.</p>
<p>A typical effect of a tsunami is the receding of the sea – identified during the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-24/boxing-day-tsunami-how-the-disaster-unfolded/5977568">Boxing Day tsunami of 2004</a> – before it banks up to create a huge wall of water. This was also witnessed during <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/specials/hurricane-irma">Hurricane Irma</a> in 2017, when the storm exhibited a “negative storm surge effect”. This happens when seawater is sucked away from the shore uncovering the seabed or leaving it in a dry state.</p>
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<h2>Is storm surge decreasing?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98a3/pdf">study</a> from 2018 claimed that the death rate from storm surges is decreasing thanks to improved forecasting technologies, early warning systems, coastal protections and speedy evacuations. However, recent storms like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/18/cyclone-idai-death-toll-climbs-over-120-in-mozambique-and-zimbabwe">Cyclone Idai</a> remind us that storm surge has not gone away. Counting deaths attributed to storm surge over a period of time seems to give a misleading picture of reduced impact, plus signs of a decreasing trend may not indicate the actual risks associated with storm surge. </p>
<p>In 2018, Edward Rappaport, acting director of the US’s <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutintro.shtml">National Hurricane Center</a>, carried out an analysis on direct deaths from Atlantic tropical cyclones over three decades from 1970-1999. His <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00074.1">study</a> recorded that most of cyclone-related fatalities were associated with rainfall and not attributable to storm surges. The 1,800 deaths from <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/23/us/hurricane-katrina-statistics-fast-facts/index.html">Hurricane Katrina</a> in 2005, and significant economic damage that occurred during <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/reference/hurricane-sandy/">Hurricane Sandy</a> in 2012, majorly altered his claim, and he later <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00074.1">reported</a> that 49% of deaths from Atlantic hurricanes are directly associated with storm surge.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285348/original/file-20190723-110154-124jwlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285348/original/file-20190723-110154-124jwlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285348/original/file-20190723-110154-124jwlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285348/original/file-20190723-110154-124jwlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285348/original/file-20190723-110154-124jwlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285348/original/file-20190723-110154-124jwlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285348/original/file-20190723-110154-124jwlp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00074.1">NHC</a></span>
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<p>The increase in tropical cyclone-generated storm surges that occurred around the world between 2015 and 2018 and the human and economic cost that resulted, clearly contradicts any claim that death rates from storm surges are decreasing.</p>
<p>During the course of Cyclone Idai, which struck Zimbabwe and the coast of Mozambique on March 14, 2019, mud houses were washed away and sea defences were damaged. Towns were cut off from rescue operations, and the death toll exceeded 800 people with hundreds reported missing. Winds of up to 177kmph (106mph) resulted in 90% of the city of Beira in Mozambique being <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2019/03/18/90-percent-of-mozambican-city-of-beira-destroyed-by-cyclone-idai-red-cross//">destroyed</a>.</p>
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<p>With airports closed, rescuers could only reach survivors by land, which not only protracted the rescue process but also complicated the deployment of food, water and emergency medical services. This is what typically happens when a storm surge hits.</p>
<p>Cyclone Idai is a deadly example of the power of a storm surge, and the cities in its path are still recovering from the impact, with the death toll expected to exceed 1,000. This would certainly indicate that storm surge is not a declining trend. Which is all the more reason to help people in vulnerable parts of the world to understand what storm surge is and just how much a threat to life it can be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116453/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anitha Karthik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Half the deaths from Atlantic hurricanes are down to storm surge. People in vulnerable regions need to be aware of what it is and how it threatens their safety.Anitha Karthik, Doctoral Researcher, Edinburgh Napier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1193062019-06-24T20:11:37Z2019-06-24T20:11:37Z‘Like tearing a piece of cheese’: here’s why Darwin was rocked so hard by a distant quake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280881/original/file-20190624-97766-1h3f5ct.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The quake prompted several buildings to be evacuated in central Darwin.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock.com/sljones</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us600044zz/executive">magnitude 7.3 earthquake</a> that struck at a depth of about 200km beneath the Banda Sea on Monday prompted <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-24/darwin-earthquake-forces-evacuation-of-buildings/11241044">office buildings to be evacuated in Darwin</a>, some 700km away. </p>
<p>This is a <a href="http://www.faultrock.nz/uploads/4/4/8/3/44833089/banda_seismicity.pdf">complex and seismically active region</a>, where the Australian tectonic plate collides with microplates on the edge of Asia in the <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us1000hzjp/executive">Indonesian region</a>. </p>
<p>The location of this earthquake is no surprise. Three earthquakes greater than magnitude 6 occurred within a few kilometres of each other and within the same general area in 2016 and 2018. Nor is the size of the quake particularly out of the ordinary. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck here in 1962, and a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0031920184900104">magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1983</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280883/original/file-20190624-97789-1on6085.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280883/original/file-20190624-97789-1on6085.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280883/original/file-20190624-97789-1on6085.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280883/original/file-20190624-97789-1on6085.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280883/original/file-20190624-97789-1on6085.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280883/original/file-20190624-97789-1on6085.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280883/original/file-20190624-97789-1on6085.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280883/original/file-20190624-97789-1on6085.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The quake’s epicentre was in the Banda Sea about 700km north of Darwin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us600044zz/executive">US Geological Survey</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Why is this zone so active?</h2>
<p>Even though this seismic zone is at the boundary between two tectonic plates, these earthquakes occur within the Australian tectonic plate, and owe their character to variations in the type of crust that makes up the northern part of the plate.</p>
<p>Where the Australian Plate collides with Asia, some of it has slid (subducted) under the volcanoes of Eastern Indonesia, and is descending into the mantle. This process is driven by buoyancy (the tendency of material to sink or float). Continental crust is more buoyant, and thus resists sinking into the mantle. Ocean crust, meanwhile, is denser and has more of a tendency to sink. As the Australian Plate travels northward, the front edge is high-density ocean crust, and the part following behind it is lower-density continental crust.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-a-crack-up-hefty-continents-got-tectonic-plates-moving-31686">What a crack up: hefty continents got tectonic plates moving</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<hr>
<p>Where one part of a plate subducts easily and starts to sink and the other wants to float and refuses to subduct, a tear can develop, and this is what we believe is happening north of Darwin. The northern edge of the Australian Plate used to be made up of ocean crust that is now completely subducted. The buoyant Australian continent is refusing to subduct, and as a result the ocean crust is tearing off as it sinks into the mantle. </p>
<p>In the region of Timor this tearing seems to have happened already, so there is virtually no seismicity at similar depths for several hundred kilometres west of this earthquake in the vicinity of Timor. Earthquakes cannot occur where there is a hole in the plate, and instead they mainly happen at the spot where the tear is growing. </p>
<p>A useful analogy to visualise this is tearing a piece of cheese – the kind of pre-sliced, soft cheese that you put on your sandwiches. The picture below shows a piece of cheese that is bent around a cylinder (representing the descent of the plate into the mantle), and is torn along one edge. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280900/original/file-20190624-97772-1eysh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280900/original/file-20190624-97772-1eysh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280900/original/file-20190624-97772-1eysh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280900/original/file-20190624-97772-1eysh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280900/original/file-20190624-97772-1eysh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280900/original/file-20190624-97772-1eysh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280900/original/file-20190624-97772-1eysh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280900/original/file-20190624-97772-1eysh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A cheese analogy for the Banda Sea earthquake. The cheese represents the Australian plate, which is bending down as it slides (subducts) under Indonesia and Timor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.faultrock.nz/uploads/4/4/8/3/44833089/cheese-analogy_orig.jpg">Brendan Duffy/Mark Quigley</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the tear in the cheese (plate) gets longer, earthquake activity stops where there is no longer any cheese (plate) present, and gets more intense at the point where the tear is happening. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us600044zz/executive">official earthquake record from the US Geological Survey</a> indicates that this earthquake consisted of a combination of lateral displacement and vertical extension (lengthening), which is consistent with our cheese analogy. </p>
<p>The vertical extension is caused by the stretching of the crust while lateral displacement, known as strike slip, probably accommodates the eastward movement required by the continuing attachment of the slab east of the earthquake.</p>
<h2>Why did it rock Darwin so hard?</h2>
<p>Earthquakes such as this occur <em>within</em> the Australian plate, and the seismic waves travel through the cold, strong Australian plate quite efficiently. This means that it did not lose much of its energy before reaching Darwin. </p>
<p>This is particularly true for long-period (low frequency) waves, which disproportionately affect tall buildings, causing them to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFlIbujTuIY">move quite violently</a>. This is consistent with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-24/darwin-earthquake-forces-evacuation-of-buildings/11241044">news reports</a> that offices in Darwin’s central business district were evacuated and are now being assessed for damage. </p>
<p>In contrast, the city of Dili, which is closer to the earthquake, experienced only minor wobbling for less than 10 seconds, according to Federation University geology lecturer Nicole Cox, who is visiting Dili. Seismic waves emanating from the lower plate have already weakened considerably by the time they pass through the upper plate to reach Dili.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-some-earthquakes-are-so-deadly-104880">Why some earthquakes are so deadly</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Local earthquakes are relatively infrequent around Darwin, because like the rest of Australia it sits on strong continental crust, relatively far from a plate boundary. However, earthquakes like today’s are quite common. Queensland seismologist Kevin McCue has compiled a <a href="http://aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/22-McCue-Kevin-Darwin.pdf">long list of earthquakes that affected Darwin</a>, including many from the region of the Banda Sea that produced today’s earthquake. Even in 1900, local people recognised the relative normality of severe Banda Sea earthquakes. </p>
<p>Aftershock sequences from these types of events commonly include a few earthquakes greater than magnitude 6, and ten or more above magnitude 5. The key to managing this hazard is preparedness and carefully considered action in the aftermath of the earthquake. </p>
<p>Now is probably as good a time as any for Territorians and other Australians to re-read the <a href="https://www.pfes.nt.gov.au/Emergency-Service/Public-safety-advice/Earthquakes.aspx">advice of state emergency services</a> on how to be safe when an earthquake strikes, and the best places to take cover.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Duffy has received Early Career funding from The University of Melbourne for his work in this area. He works closely with Timor-Leste governement geohazard specialists on understanding the earthquake hazard of the Banda area.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Quigley is the director of Dr Quigs geoconsulting, and of the Geohazards Analysis for Critical Infrastructure group at The University of Melbourne. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council for his work on earthquakes</span></em></p>Because it happened within the Australian Plate rather than at a plate boundary, shockwaves from the quake travelled more efficiently to Darwin than to cities closer to the epicentre.Brendan Duffy, Lecturer in Applied Geoscience, The University of MelbourneMark Quigley, Associate professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1147532019-04-04T00:23:19Z2019-04-04T00:23:19ZA ‘seiche’ wave can outpace a tsunami, and both can be triggered by meteorites and earthquakes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267244/original/file-20190403-177184-r6mkdz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Waves can be generated in lakes and other bodies of water when seismic energy travels through land. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/_asfY_cHGNk">Leo Roomets / Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A catastrophic event occurred on Earth 66 million years ago. A huge meteorite struck our planet in what is now Mexico, triggering mass extinctions of the dinosaurs and most other living creatures. </p>
<p>A new paper shows the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/03/27/1817407116">first recorded victims</a> of this impact were fish and other marine animals, stranded by a wave that left them high and dry in an ancient river in North Dakota, at a site called Tanis. </p>
<p>For scientists unpacking the evidence around the event, a full picture of the cataclysm has involved looking into the details of planetary surface physics during giant impacts. </p>
<p>But beyond the first layer of fascinating results – <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-02/research-into-the-day-the-dinosaurs-died/10960446">little glass impact beads stuck in the gills of fish</a>, for example – one really interesting aspect of this work is around how water behaves when it’s exposed to extreme forces.</p>
<p>If you’ve never heard of a form of wave called a seiche, this is your chance to catch up. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Z7kNr354PJs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This is a seiche – a standing wave – in a swimming pool, during a large earthquake in Nepal.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Waves of damage</h2>
<p>The Chicxulub meteorite crater in coastal Mexico is strongly associated with the mass extinction of the dinosaurs (<a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/23/5820">and 75% of all species</a>), 66 million years ago. </p>
<p>The first victims were right at the site. Any marine creatures close to the point of impact would have been instantly <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2095">vaporised</a> (sadly leaving no fossil record), along with much of the surrounding rock. </p>
<p>Around the periphery, the energy of the impact melted and ejected tonnes of molten rock, which together with condensing rock vapour, formed little glass beads (“<a href="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/science/kring/Chicxulub/discovery/">impact spherules</a>”) that can be found in a layer around the world at this time. </p>
<p>The shock wave itself pulverised the adjacent rock enough to metamorphise it, forming features like “shocked quartz” – fractured quartz indicative of enormous pressures. It carried the energy equivalent of a magnitude 11 earthquake – 1,000 times more energy than the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-24/boxing-day-tsunami-how-the-disaster-unfolded/5977568">2004 Boxing Day quake</a> which killed almost 230,000 people. </p>
<h2>Vast inland sea now gone</h2>
<p>North Dakota is more than 3,000km away from the Chicxulub crater, and was a similar distance at the time of the meteorite impact event. </p>
<p>Separating them back then, however, was a vast inland sea that covered much of midwest USA, from Texas up to the Dakotas. Feeding into that inland sea was a river system upon which the Tanis site in North Dakota was formed. This site has preserved the earliest recorded deaths of the Chicxulub impact. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267254/original/file-20190403-177167-a3fgiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267254/original/file-20190403-177167-a3fgiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267254/original/file-20190403-177167-a3fgiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267254/original/file-20190403-177167-a3fgiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267254/original/file-20190403-177167-a3fgiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267254/original/file-20190403-177167-a3fgiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267254/original/file-20190403-177167-a3fgiw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=697&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Different views of the Tanis site. A: Tanis (starred) within a regional context (large map) and on a national map (inset). B: Photo and interpretive overlay of an oblique cross-section through Tanis. C: Simplified schematic depicting the general deposits at the site (not to scale). Most fish carcasses were found at point 3.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/03/27/1817407116">Robert A DePalma and colleagues</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The site itself is unusual. The deposition of sediments can tell us about the flow of water in the river. </p>
<p>Most ripples (or <a href="https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/ts/2016/10/17/soft-sediment-structures-slumps-and-flames/">flame structures</a>) indicate a southerly flow of the river before and after the Tanis deposit. However, these flow indicators point the wrong way during the time the Tanis unit formed. Water was flowing upstream, fast. </p>
<p>At the site are also found the fossilised remains of species, like sharks and rays, that occupied brackish water, rather than the freshwater of the stream. These had to be brought inland from the sea by something, and left to die, smothered in sediment, on a riverbank. </p>
<h2>Stranded in Dakota</h2>
<p>The obvious candidate is an impact tsunami. Perhaps the impact of the meteorite hitting the ocean generated a huge wave that carried fish from the inland sea, and against the flow of fresh water, to leave the creatures stranded in Dakota? </p>
<p>But there are problems with this hypothesis. The tiny impact spherules that formed in Chicxulub can be found throughout the deposit (many clogging the gills of fish), and pockmarks in the sedimentary layers means rocks were still raining down. This means the surge of water occurred within around 15 minutes to two hours of the impact itself.</p>
<p>For a tsunami to travel the 3,000km from the point of impact, to the Tanis site across the inland sea, would have taken almost 18 hours. Something else killed these creatures.</p>
<p>The seismic waves from the impact would have travelled through the Earth much faster than a tsunami travelled across water – and arrived near Tanis between 6-13 minutes later. The <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/03/27/1817407116">authors of the Tanis study</a> suggest these seismic waves may have triggered an unusual type of wave in the inland sea, called a seiche. </p>
<h2>Standing waves</h2>
<p>Seiches are <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Standing_wave_2.gif">standing waves</a> in bodies of water, and are often found in large lake systems <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwLGX21Jflo">during strong winds</a>. The winds themselves cause waves and water displacement, which can have a harmonic effect, causing the water to slosh side to side like an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYI1zIjJr4g">overfull bathtub</a>. </p>
<p>However, earthquakes are also known to cause seiches. Particularly dramatic seiches are often seen in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7kNr354PJs">swimming pools during large quakes</a>. The interaction of the seismic wave’s period (the time between two waves) with the timescale of waves sloshing in a pool can amplify their effect. </p>
<p>But seiches can affect larger bodies of water too. </p>
<p>During the 2011 Tohuku earthquake in Japan, seiches <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYJjMqYdmmo">over 1m high</a> were observed in Norwegian fjords more than 8,000km away. With an energy more than 1,000 times greater, the Chicxulub event could quite conceivably have generated bigger than 10 metre swells in the North American inland sea – the scale implied by the deposition of the Tanis site. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uYJjMqYdmmo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">These waves in Norwegian fjords were created by seismic waves from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Given a seiche can be driven by seismic waves, it’s conceivable that one drove the surge that stranded marine creatures at Tanis, resulting in the short time between the impact debris and the surge deposit. </p>
<h2>Still lots of questions</h2>
<p>But a lot remains unclear regarding exactly what did happen 66 million years ago. </p>
<p>Could the fish stranding have been driven by the first seismic activity to appear at Tanis (the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264370716301089">P and S waves</a> in science parlance, which travel through the interior of the Earth, arriving at Tanis 6 and 10 minutes after impact, respectively), or the more destructive but slower surface waves at the top of the Earth’s crust, which arrived 13 minutes after impact? </p>
<p>How might seiche waves have interacted with <a href="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2005/pdf/1544.pdf">global hurricane-strength wind storms</a> caused by the impact? </p>
<p>Would the period of sloshing of a seiche be consistent with the scale of the inland sea? (The inland sea was much larger than most lakes seiches are traditionally observed in – and may or may not have been open to the ocean). Given so little is really known about the dimensions of the inland sea, this is hard to constrain. </p>
<p>The Tanis site has given us an incredible window into the first few hours of a mass-extinction. But it has also highlighted how little we have probed into the fatal surface physics of these extreme events.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114753/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig O'Neill has received past funding from the ARC. </span></em></p>If you’ve never heard of a form of wave called a ‘seiche’ – which can occur in swimming pools during earthquakes – this is your chance to catch up.Craig O'Neill, Director of the Macquarie Planetary Research Centre/Associate Professor in Geodynamics, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1092752019-01-02T11:27:02Z2019-01-02T11:27:02ZWhy the ‘Child of Krakatau’ volcano is still dangerous – a volcanologist explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252202/original/file-20190101-32136-1vhp7s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An eruption of Anak Krakatau caused an underwater landslide and tsunami that struck Java and Sumatra.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Pictures-Of-The-Week-Photo-Gallery/9f79d72a31af4f47bcaf1731f9585436/2/0">Nurul Hidayat/Bisnis Indonesia via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Dec. 22 at 9:03 p.m. local time, a 64-hectare (158-acre) chunk of Anak Krakatau volcano, in Indonesia, slid into the ocean following an eruption. This landslide created a tsunami that struck coastal regions in Java and Sumatra, <a href="https://ahacentre.org/flash-update/flash-update-no-05-sunda-strait-tsunami-29-december-2018/">killing at least 426 people and injuring 7,202</a>. </p>
<p>Satellite data and helicopter footage taken on Dec. 23 confirmed that part of the southwest sector of the volcano had collapsed into the sea. In a <a href="http://vsi.esdm.go.id/index.php/gunungapi/aktivitas-gunungapi/2572-pers-rilis-aktivitas-gunung-anak-krakatau-28-desember-2018">report on Dec. 29</a>, Indonesia’s Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation said that the height of Anak Krakatau went from 338 meters (1,108 feet) above sea level to 110 meters (360 feet).</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252192/original/file-20181231-47307-x3qm1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252192/original/file-20181231-47307-x3qm1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252192/original/file-20181231-47307-x3qm1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252192/original/file-20181231-47307-x3qm1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252192/original/file-20181231-47307-x3qm1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=723&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252192/original/file-20181231-47307-x3qm1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=909&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252192/original/file-20181231-47307-x3qm1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=909&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252192/original/file-20181231-47307-x3qm1k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=909&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A simulation of a volcanic event showed the potential for waves of 15 meters or more locally (in red) emanating from the site of Anak Krakatau.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1144/SP361.7">Giachetti et al. (2012)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My colleagues and I published a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1144/SP361.7">study</a> in 2012 looking at the hazards this site posed and found that, although it was very difficult to forecast if and when Anak Krakatau would partially collapse, the characteristics of the waves produced by such event were not totally unpredictable.</p>
<h2>Landslide-triggered</h2>
<p>Although most tsunamis have a seismic origin (for example, the Sumatra, Indonesia one in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami">2004</a> and at Tohoku, Japan in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami">2011</a>), they may also be triggered by phenomena related to large volcanic eruptions. </p>
<p>Tsunamis caused by volcanoes can be triggered by submarine explosions or by large pyroclastic flows – a hot mix of volcanic gases, ash and blocks travelling at tens of miles per hour – if they enter in a body of water. Another cause is when a large crater forms due to the collapse of the roof of a magma chamber – a large reservoir of partially molten rock beneath the surface of the Earth – following an eruption. </p>
<p>At Anak Krakatau, a large, rapidly sliding mass that struck the water led to the tsunami. These types of events are usually difficult to predict as most of the sliding mass is below water level.</p>
<p>These volcanic landslides can lead to major tsunamis. Landslide-triggered tsunamis similar to what happened at Anak Krakatau occurred in December 2002 when 17 millions cubic meters (600 millions cubic feet) of volcanic material from <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JB005172">Stromboli</a> volcano, in Italy, triggered a 8-meter-high wave. More recently in June 2017, a 100-meter-high wave was triggered by a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321539366_Karrat_Fjord_Greenland_tsunamigenic_landslide_of_17_June_2017_initial_3D_observations">45-million-cubic-meter</a> (1.6-billion cubic-feet) landslide in <a href="https://www.nature.com/news/huge-landslide-triggered-rare-greenland-mega-tsunami-1.22374">Karrat Fjord</a>, in Greenland, causing a sudden surge of seawater that wreaked havoc and killed four people in the fishing village of Nuugaatsiaq located about 20 km (12.5 miles) away from the collapse. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252190/original/file-20181231-47295-1jnu3jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252190/original/file-20181231-47295-1jnu3jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252190/original/file-20181231-47295-1jnu3jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252190/original/file-20181231-47295-1jnu3jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252190/original/file-20181231-47295-1jnu3jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252190/original/file-20181231-47295-1jnu3jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252190/original/file-20181231-47295-1jnu3jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252190/original/file-20181231-47295-1jnu3jv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=320&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite pictures taken on Aug. 20 (left) and Dec. 24 (right) showing the change of Anak Krakatau topography (in red circle) before and after the eruption.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.gsi.go.jp/cais/topic181225-index-e.html">Geospatial Information Authority of Japan</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These two tsunamis had few fatalities as they occurred either in relatively isolated locations (Karrat Fjord) or during a period of no tourist activity (Stromboli). This was obviously not the case at Anak Krakatau on Dec. 22.</p>
<h2>Child of Krakatau</h2>
<p>This part of the world is well-experienced with destructive volcanoes. In August 26-28, <a href="https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/se02000x.html">1883, Krakatau</a> volcano experienced one of the largest volcanic eruptions ever recorded in human history, generating 15 meter (50 feet) tsunami waves and causing more than 35,000 casualties along the coasts of the Sunda Strait in Indonesia. </p>
<p>Nearly 45 years after this 1883 cataclysmal eruption, Anak Krakatau (“Child of Krakatau” in Indonesian) emerged from the sea in the same location as the former Krakatau, and grew to reach about 338 meters (1,108 feet), its maximum height on Dec. 22, 2018.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252191/original/file-20181231-47298-1tsklfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252191/original/file-20181231-47298-1tsklfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252191/original/file-20181231-47298-1tsklfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252191/original/file-20181231-47298-1tsklfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252191/original/file-20181231-47298-1tsklfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252191/original/file-20181231-47298-1tsklfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252191/original/file-20181231-47298-1tsklfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252191/original/file-20181231-47298-1tsklfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">(a) Cross-section of Anak Krakatau and the 1883 eruption caldera. The landslide scar used for the model is drawn in black. It is orientated southwestwards, delimiting a collapsing volume of about 0.28 cubic kilometers. (b) Topography before the simulated landslide. The caldera resulting from the 1883 Krakatau eruption is clearly visible, as well as Anak Krakatau, which is built on the northeast flank of this caldera. (c) Topography after the simulated landslide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1144/SP361.7">Giachetti et al. (2012).</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many tsunamis were produced during the 1883 eruption. How they were generated is still debated by volcanologists, as several volcanic processes may have acted successively or together. </p>
<p>I worked on this very problem in 2011 with my colleagues <a href="http://lmv.uca.fr/paris-raphael/">Raphaël Paris</a> and <a href="http://lmv.uca.fr/kelfoun-karim-2/">Karim Kelfoun</a> from the Université Clermont Auvergne in France, and <a href="http://tau.ac.id/staff-member/dr-ir-budianto-ontowirjo-msc/">Budianto Ontowirjo</a> from the Tanri Abeng University in Indonesia. However, the short time left in my postdoctoral fellowship had me shift direction away from the 19th-century explosion to focus on Anak Krakatau. In 2012, we published a paper entitled <a href="http://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/361/1/79">“Tsunami Hazard Related to a Flank Collapse of Anak Krakatau Volcano, Sunda Strait, Indonesia.”</a></p>
<p>This study started with the observation that Anak Krakatau was partly built on a steep wall of the crater resulting from the 1883 eruption of Krakatau. We thus asked ourselves “what if part of this volcano collapses into the sea?” To tackle this question, we numerically simulated a sudden southwestwards destabilization of a large part of the Anak Krakatau volcano, and the subsequent tsunami formation and propagation. We showed results projecting the time of arrival and the amplitude of the waves produced, both in the Sunda Strait and on the coasts of Java and Sumatra.</p>
<p>When modeling landslide-triggered tsunamis, several assumptions need to be made concerning the volume and shape of the landslide, the way it collapses (in one go versus in several failures), or the way it propagates. In that study, we envisioned a somewhat “worst-case scenario” with a volume of 0.28 cubic kilometers of collapsed volcanic material – the equivalent of about 270 Empire State buildings.</p>
<p>We predicted that all the coasts around the Sunda Strait could potentially be affected by waves of more than 1 meter less than 1 hour after the event. Unfortunately, it seems that our findings were not that far to what happened on Dec. 22: The observed time of arrival and amplitude of the waves were in the range of our simulation, and <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/ky5rb4kmi7bgmfd/Anak_Krakatau_v1.pdf?dl=0">oceanographer Stephan Grilli and colleagues</a> estimated that 0.2 cubic kilometers of land actually collapsed.</p>
<p>Since the landslide occurred, there have been continuous <a href="http://www.geologyin.com/2014/05/a-surtseyan-eruption.html">Surtseyan eruptions</a>. These involve explosive interactions between the magma of the volcano and the surrounding water, which is reshaping Anak Krakatau as it continues to slowly slide to the southwest. </p>
<p>Indonesia remains on high alert as <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/indonesia-high-alert-new-tsunami-volcano-rumbles-n952221">officials warn</a> of potentially more tsunamis. As people wait, it’s worth returning to studies that have looked at the potential hazards caused by volcanoes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109275/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Giachetti receives funding from the US Nation Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Research into volcanic activity in the waters off Indonesia shows how active this region is and how destructive landslide-caused tsunamis can be.Thomas Giachetti, Assistant Professor of Earth Sciences, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1058092018-12-20T09:56:05Z2018-12-20T09:56:05ZWhy, 14 years after the Aceh tsunami, ‘smong’ should be part of the Indonesian vocabulary<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251476/original/file-20181219-27779-eakwzl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Banda Aceh on December 26 2004.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdownload.shutterstock.com%2Fgatekeeper%2FW3siZSI6MTU0NTI0MjY0MCwiYyI6Il9waG90b19zZXNzaW9uX2lkIiwiZGMiOiJpZGxfMTAxNTU0MDg3MyIsImsiOiJwaG90by8xMDE1NTQwODczL21lZGl1bS5qcGciLCJtIjoxLCJkIjoic2h1dHRlcnN0b2NrLW1lZGlhIn0sImxleWNIdEQvYVVubDkyWmNxT2NvdldIMXUyVSJd%2Fshutterstock_1015540873.jpg&pi=41133566&m=1015540873&src=wzYZGwnbkWwvxgTPgQ9zvw-1-13">Frans Delian/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It seems that we still stutter and come back to what happened in Lombok, <a href="https://theconversation.com/reviewing-indonesias-tsunami-early-warning-strategy-reflections-from-sulawesi-island-104257">Palu and Donggala</a>, Indonesia. In 2018, it remains as urgent as in 2004 to make changes that transform our understanding of natural disasters and eventually save lives. </p>
<p>One important way to do this is to privilege <a href="https://theconversation.com/sulawesi-tsunami-how-social-media-and-a-lullaby-can-save-lives-in-future-disasters-104703">traditional local knowledge</a> and memories of previous events. Next week will be the 14th commemoration of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami">the Aceh tsunami</a>.</p>
<p>The International Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) or the <a href="https://www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/sendai-framework">Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015-2030</a> has emphasised the importance of using local knowledge. To reduce disaster risk, we need to create a social dynamic that strengthens local knowledge in individuals and society as a whole. </p>
<h2>Power of local wisdom</h2>
<p>One important example of local knowledge that saved lives is from Simeulue island in Aceh regency; it is the story of <em>smong</em>: On December 26 2004, a student named Almahdi was smoking on the high bridge over the river in Banda Aceh. Born in Simeulue, when the earthquake happened and the sea receded he knew what was next. He started yelling “<em>Smong! Smong!</em> Run! Run!” </p>
<p>But all those near him looked at him as if he were a madman. They did not know the meaning of <em>smong</em> and did not run. Within the hour many of them were dead. Almahdi saw their bodies floating in the river. </p>
<p>Almahdi survived, but he did not know that all his compatriots at home on Simeulue island also survived. Official reports said that “Simeulue was drowned” and he feared for the worst for over a week.</p>
<p>Almahdi’s knowledge of <em>smong</em> stems from an incident on January 4 1907. A 7.6 magnitude earthquake shook the Simeulue islands and a few moments later a massive tsunami devastated Simeulue’s coast. From that day, the few survivors determined to honour the family who had died and to save their descendants by telling the story of <em>smong</em> to their children and grandchildren. </p>
<p>Nearly 100 years later, on December 26 2004, all <a href="https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2016/05/12/jumlah-penduduk-di-kabupaten-simeulue-aceh-2001-2013">70,000 </a> people on Simeulue were reminded of the <em>smong</em> by the 9.2 magnitude earthquake. They ran to the hills and watched as the giant wave destroyed their houses. The wisdom of <em>smong</em>, retained for 97 years, saved their lives.</p>
<p>In recent years the word <em>smong</em> has attracted international researchers seeking to deepen understanding of the phenomenon. <em>Smong</em> is the local knowledge of the Simeulue community, and before 2004 was unknown by outsiders. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) awarded the Simeuluean people the UN <a href="https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/8569"><em>Sasakawa</em></a> Award on October 12 2005. The award was given in Bangkok, Thailand, in appreciation of, and to encourage, their efforts to contribute to a global culture of disaster prevention, thereby furthering the goals of the international strategy for disaster reduction.</p>
<p>Now their pride in the word <em>smong</em> has spread to Aceh and is being adopted in efforts to adapt to earthquake and tsunami disasters. Simeuluean people, grateful to their nation for the reconstruction after 2004, want to grow the pride in <em>smong</em> to a national level. They want to make a gift of <em>smong</em> to be owned by the Indonesian people as a whole. They feel that the word <em>smong</em> should be part of the Indonesian vocabulary, providing the basis for a new understanding of the tsunami disaster.</p>
<p><em>Smong</em> is ready for this challenge. It was tested in the December 26 2004 earthquake and tsunami disaster with impressive results. The existence of the word in the language provides a definition (know what) that is linked to understanding (know how). This knowledge moved the Simeulue community to take fast and appropriate action when reading natural signs of an earthquake and tsunami.</p>
<p>There are other terms for tsunami throughout the Indonesian archipelago. On the mainland there is the term <em>Ie-beuna</em> in Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar, while in Singkil people call the tsunami the <em>Gloro</em>. Over time, however, the knowledge linked to these words has faded. Many lives have been lost as a result. </p>
<p><em>Smong</em> comes from the Devayan language of Simeulue and refers to the complex of earthquake/sea receding/giant wave that is typical of tsunami events in Indonesia. It is shared in the traditional songs of Simeulue, the <em>nandong</em>: </p>
<p><em>Enggel mon sao curito</em> (Hear this story) / <em>Inang maso semonan</em> (One day in the past) / <em>Manoknop sao fano</em> (Our village sinks) / <em>Unen ne alek linon</em> (Starting with the earthquake) / <em>Fesang bakat nemali</em> (Then followed by rising waves) / <em>Manoknop sao hampong</em> (Sinking the whole village) <em>Tibo-tibo mawi</em> (Immediately) / <em>Anga linon ne mali</em> (If a strong earthquake occurs) / <em>Uwek suruik sahuli</em> (Followed by the receding sea water) / <em>Maheya mihawali</em> (Hurry) / <em>Fano me senga tenggi</em> (Run to the higher place).</p>
<p>The Simeulue community cleverly closes all the stories by placing the following sentence: <em>Eda Smong kahanne</em> (That’s what we call <em>smong</em>). </p>
<p>This very emotional song form is sung at social gatherings and weddings. Combined with regular telling of the same story, it constitutes a very simple system, but one that has the power to move people and save lives. </p>
<h2>Why does <em>smong</em> need to be included in Indonesian vocabulary?</h2>
<p><a href="https://kbbi.kemdikbud.go.id/entri/tsunami">The Big Indonesian Dictionary (<em>Kamus Besar Bahasa Indonesia</em>, KBBI)</a> provides the Japanese term tsunami for what the Simeuluean people call <em>smong</em>. </p>
<p>In fact, in Japan, there are variations in the terms used to describe natural phenomena that we know as tsunamis such as <a href="http://rsnr.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/62/2/151"><em>onami</em></a> (big waves), <em>shakainamisu</em> (rising waves reaching the land) etc. The specific word tsunami in the Japanese language comes from two terms: “tsu”, which means port, and “nami”. which means wave. That is, a harbour or port wave. </p>
<p>If viewed from the root of the word, one has an incomplete understanding of the natural hazard. Does this wave affect only harbours? Am I safe on the beach? It is not clear. </p>
<p>Despite this, “tsunami” is now used internationally, replacing the word “tidal wave” in most languages by the 1980s. Of course, “tidal wave” was an even worse description of the giant wave phenomenon, which has nothing to do with the tide.</p>
<p>There are several strong reasons, then, to make <em>smong</em> part of the Indonesian vocabulary.</p>
<p><em>Smong</em> describes the natural hazard complex seen regularly in Indonesia, and most recently in Palu and Donggala. With 46% of the Indonesian coast subject to giant waves, it is geographically relevant.</p>
<p><em>Smong</em> is a symbol of international recognition of the roles of local knowledge in reducing risk as declared in SFDRR 2015-2030.</p>
<p><em>Smong</em> is a word that is known to have saved many lives.</p>
<p><em>Smong</em> already has global recognition and is a source of pride for Simeulue, Aceh and Indonesia.</p>
<p><em>Smong</em> reminds us of the importance and strength of local knowledge. </p>
<p><em>Smong</em> sounds like an Indonesian word, matching and making local pronunciation easy.</p>
<p><em>Smong</em> was born from the womb of the Indonesian people themselves, so it should be accepted as a national treasure.</p>
<p>Most importantly, <em>smong</em> provides the basis of a new national discussion of a devastating natural hazard. </p>
<p>It is the “hook” upon which all Indonesian people can hang a new understanding of how to save themselves, their children and grandchildren. Knowledge of <em>smong</em> has the potential to substantially reduce, and perhaps even eliminate, casualties from giant sea waves. </p>
<p>Initiating the word <em>smong</em> in the Indonesian vocabulary does not mean removing the word tsunami, which is now an international word. But our acceptance of <em>smong</em> should be a source of pride in the protection of our greatest wealth – our people. </p>
<p>The people of Simeulue have offered a gift to Indonesia, the word <em>smong</em>; Almahdi still wishes the people in Banda Aceh had understood him yelling <em>smong</em> on that terrible day in 2004. He and all Simeuluean people now wish all Indonesians have the knowledge, identity and pride of <em>smong</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen A Sutton received an Australian post-graduate research award and a scholarship from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alfi Rahman tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham, atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi selain yang telah disebut di atas.</span></em></p>Making the word smong part of the Indonesian vocabulary does not mean removing the word tsunami. Smong should be a source of pride in how local knowledge protects us from disaster.Alfi Rahman, Researcher at Tsunami and Disaster Mitigation Research Center (TDMRC), Universitas Syiah KualaStephen A Sutton, PhD Student, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.