When two sides bargain, their interaction reflects a potential mutual benefit but also a measure of conflict. For instance, when a firm and its supplier reach a deal, there is often more than one price where both will benefit. The high end of the range favours the supplier while the lower advantages the firm. So, when bargaining leads them to an agreement on the final price, they unlock a mutual benefit and resolve a potential conflict.
Now, bargaining only makes sense if both sides enjoy a modicum of bargaining power. And what determines that?
The simple answer is: a readiness to draw a “line in the sand” and credibly resolve to walk away from the negotiations if that line is crossed. Thus, a buyer determines a maximum price, and the seller a minimum price, and commits to scuttle the deal if the opposite side refuses to grant at least this minimalist demand. If one of the two bargainers cannot envision circumstances under which she will prefer to reject the other’s offer, and this is transparent, negotiations are pointless. The party that cannot imagine saying “no” should desist from bargaining and simply plead with the other side, appealing to its kindness, generosity and, in desperate cases like Greece’s, sense of mercy.
Today, Greek voters are going to the polling stations torn by the momentous choice that they must make. Should they vote for a party (Syriza) promising to bargain with Europe for better terms and conditions, or for parties (primarily conservative New Democracy and/or the socialist PASOK) that are, effectively, proposing to plead with Europe for better terms and conditions?
Ostensibly, both sides of the argument are promising to negotiate with the troika (the European Central Bank, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund). However, in truth, the so-called pro-bailout parties (ND and PASOK) are running on a platform that any deal with Greece’s official creditors is better than no deal. So, in view of the preceding definition of genuine bargaining, they are ruling genuine negotiations out, courtesy of their determination not to draw a “line in the sand”.
The voters’ dilemma gets worse because of the risks involved either way. Pro-bailout parties argue against the “line in the sand” strategy because they believe that such a “line”, if it must be adhered to (e.g. following a tough negotiating line by the troika), will lead Greece out of the euro, thus costing Greece more than toeing the troika’s ‘line’ (i.e. Greece is doing as it is told). In sharp contrast, Syriza is arguing (drawing upon the sorry experience of kowtowing to the troika’s every whim during the past two years) that the greatest risk facing Greece is sticking to the present course of precipitous degeneration which inexorably, and speedily, leads Greece … out of the euro.
In the background of this dilemma, lies another fundamental difference of Greek opinion regarding Europe’s handling of the Crisis in countries other than Greece.
On the one hand, the pro-bailout parties maintain a touching faith in Europe’s powerful nations to ride the present storm. While they concede that the past two years have been replete with a sequence of errors on the part of Berlin, Paris, Brussels and Frankfurt, pro-bailout parties are clinging on to the theory that “this is how Europe makes progress”; to the optimistic view that Europe will, in the final analysis, manage to do what is necessary in order to save the euro and, with it, snatch the European Ideal from the jaws of the unfolding disintegration.
Based on this muted optimism, they argue that Greece’s optimal strategy today is to do what it is told (even if what it is told makes little rational sense) so as to maximise its chances of staying within the European fold until Europe’s long-awaited “final solution” to the Crisis arrives. Their nightmare scenario would see Greece fall out of the Eurozone just before the Eurozone is “fixed” through a combination of fiscal transfers, federal moves, debt mutualisation etc.
On the other side of the argument (which has, incidentally, been my own viewpoint for a long while now), a completely different view of what Europe is up to dominates.
It is the view of European elites engulfed in a spectacular coordination failure that cannot resolve itself endogenously. They resemble American Pentagon generals of the early 1970s, who could see that the Vietnam War could not be won and was a train wreck in slow motion, but who had no means of combining this realisation into a coordinated attempt to change course.
Similarly in the corridors of power in Northern Europe today, everyone can see that the Eurozone is heading for a major defeat, in the hands of this vicious Crisis, but no one dares speak the words that might lead to a collective, a European, re-set that will avert the inevitable disaster. In this view of developments in the European Metropoles, we need a circuit-breaker. Something must give. Some discontinuity is necessary, to interrupt the unfolding train wreck of the Eurozone. A Greek vote for a party, like Syriza, that is prepared to bargain (i.e. a party that is prepared to draw a “line in the sand”) may provide this circuit-breaker. Through this prism, a Greek “no” to the troika is not in the slightest anti-European. Indeed, it is the only good service Greek voters can perform on behalf of the European Project.
If the essence of tragedy is essentially good people being caught up in a vicious dilemma that make it impossible for them clearly to distinguish the virtuous from the disastrous choice, Greek voters are, today, experiencing a very real, very personal tragedy.
For my part, I have little doubt what the virtuous choice is: bargaining is infinitely more sensible than pleading, particularly when the troika is terribly bad at knowing where its own interests lie. Greek voters today have a unique opportunity to jolt Europe out of a complacency that is leading our Continent to a despicable peripeteia.
This article will appear on the Huffington Post later today.
Stiofán Mac Suibhne
Contrarian / Epistemologist
Taking responsibility. The Irish voted to accept their lot. For better for worse. The Greeks are in a mess of their own making. Your analogy of a business transaction is clearly inappropriate. Systemic tax evasion and welfare culture has undone Greece. Property bloat did the Irish in. I hope the Greek people don't buy into the seductive magical thinking of the Leftist position. The great leap backwards! Take the money don't repay it and some more will arrive! Great. As for the corridors of power in Northern Europe, it's the tax payers of such societies that don't want their elected leaders to throw more of their tax at a Greek basket case. Talk of troika, nice try. But the institutions of which you speak are ultimately tax payer funded.
Comment removed by moderator.
Stiofán Mac Suibhne
Contrarian / Epistemologist
Setting aside the graphic allegory of Ireland's history. I accept the English were not always the best of neighbours, but I think it is irrelevant to this story. I simply do not accept that the Irish for all time are destined to be subaltern and trapped in blessed victimhood. The Irish economy blew itself up. Don't think the English were much involved on this. And blaming the dead generations of a former enemy is not helpful.
You obvioulsy missed the 'systemic tax evasion' statement. As for the welfare culture, here in Australia several of my retired Greek-Australian neighbors tell me they have fulsome Greek pensions having not contributed to the Greek tax base.
As ever the truth of a thing is multi-layered and complex. It's not helpful to fall back on essential qualities of a people to explain the history of the present. The Irish or Greeks can't off load all responsibility to the past or their neighbors.
Peter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
Allegory?
Seems The Conversation has handed its Sunday moderator duties over to a flock of nuns. Grow up.
Anthony Nolan
Ruminant
The people who ran the Irish economy blew it up while the Euro banks supplied the explosives. The same in Greece. You say "as ever the truth of a thing is multi-layered and complex." Quite right too. A basic class analysis of the Greek economy shows that the austerity measures so far proposed and enacted fall disproportionately on the poor and the unpropertied. Let me be clear, any expectation that the poor and unpropertied should shoulder any responsibility for this situation is unreasonable. This, I suggest, cleaves right through all such talk about "the Irish" or "the Greeks" as if the responsibility lies in some peculiar way with Irishness or Greekness rather than the usual culprits - those rapacious Irish and Greek classes who are always operating on the basis of self interest.
Anthony Nolan
Ruminant
A pithy manner of speech, Peter, but not offensive I would have thought.
Peter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
PS. Put that comment back - unless you have some evidence that your readers - rather than just yourself - found it contravened your community standards.
How silly do you want the Conversation to look?
Stiofán Mac Suibhne
Contrarian / Epistemologist
I would hope that you could do a little better than characterizing Irish behaviours only in terms of drunken adventures, dry humping over car bonnets or ascribing essential qualities to an entire ethnicity.
Whilst the European project can be described as ever greate union I am not sure you had it framed correctly. I think It's time for fiscal union and pooling more sovereignty. German / Skandanavian style fiscal responsibility may benefit the Greeks / Irish more than pub talk.
Talk of class warfare is safer ground. I can agree that it is the most vulnerable that suffer.
Mike Hansen
Mr
The idea that the Greeks were a pack of welfare bludgers who deserve their fate is a story neo-liberals like to tell. Pity it is not true.
"... the Greeks have one of the lowest per capita incomes in Europe (€21,100), much lower than the Eurozone 12 (€27,600) or the German level (€29,400)
" On average, for 1998-2007 Greece spent only €3530.47 per capita on social protection benefits–slightly less than Spain’s spending and about €700 more than Portugal’s, which has one of the lowest levels in…
Read morePeter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
Now then Mr Mac... you'd be knowing full well the place of drunken adventures with nicely dressed foreign bankers I'd be thinking? What closer way to characterise the Irish Government and them property developer lads who just couldn't believe their luck. Couldn't and shouldn't, Mr Mac.
Beware of bankers carrying gifts - especially in the form of endlessly increasing loans to finance property speculation and asset values.
But to wake up the next morning and say yep we've been taken advantage of - again - and enter into arrangements to load yourself up with the full tab down at the Mrs Murphy's Shamrock and Tassel seems a peculiarly Irish thing to do. So much guilt - so little time.
I'm hoping our Greeks no more about the motives of shark-smile folks in cool suits bearing gifts and aren't quite so willing to take all the "responsibility" off their backs.
Mike Hansen
Mr
"several of my retired Greek-Australian neighbors tell me they have fulsome Greek pensions having not contributed to the Greek tax base.
Why bother with facts when you have an anecdote.
Peter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
Spot on Mike. Posted something along the same lines earlier on but whoever does the moderating on Sundays seems particularly censorious.
The one thing that foreign governments - this one in particular actually - could do for Greece is to provide technical support in establishing a working taxation system that is both cost-effective and unavoidable. It is all very well to be talking about raising tax rates, but without serious investment in a workable system it just becomes another piece of Pyrrhic political posturing. What's 75% of nothing?
Stiofán Mac Suibhne
Contrarian / Epistemologist
Not sure that referencing a pundity-blog as 'evidence' counts. If France / Germany spend more on welfare it may be because they have their tax take sorted. The idea is tax AND spend. Not don't tax AND spend. That's how you get it all 'back asswards'. As one of the giant intellects of the new-con tendency once coined a phrase.
I am all for the social contract but it needs to be funded appropriately. It's like fun nights out. Use your own money. Bet a certain cross bench MP wished he had followed that line now.
Stiofán Mac Suibhne
Contrarian / Epistemologist
Of course. Never let the truth get in the way of a good story
Mike Hansen
Mr
Pundity blog? As compared to anecdotes from some "retired Greek-Australians"?
The article was by Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist and hedge fund manager, and Rob Parenteau, CFA, sole proprietor of MacroStrategy Edge and a research associate of The Levy Economics Institute.
Yes Stiofán - taxation is important as my post made clear.
So let us be clear - the Greek wealthy dodge taxes and the Greek poor have to pay. Sounds like neo-liberalism to me. So that's what they mean by the "trickle down" effect!
Stiofán Mac Suibhne
Contrarian / Epistemologist
Love the Hiberno-English typing thing. The economic cycle is as it is. But you may find that the bankers were not foreigners with mal intent. Ireland has electricity, banks, even some sealed lane ways these days. You seem to know a lot about merchant banking, as it were and have a peculiar interest in nights out with suits. I have obvioulsy been missing out on all the fun.
Peter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
Local bankers? Mr Cooley down at the Irish? Nah he was taken in with their charming city talk and huge pockets like they all were ... Mr Cooley barely laid a hand on them ... and now they are all feeling so cheap and used.
Even the best of cycles have at least one wheel Mr Mac and, if you adopt a balanced view and a degree of prudent caution, will end up getting you somewhere else over time. But it seems this economical cycle you're about just takes you back to where you got on - only worse. Could be in the gearing.
And yes - I've had many a good night out on the town with suited gentlemen - but I've always been home by 10 and never took anything on a promise. Respect me in the morning? Let's see where that gets you then money man - a cold peck on the cheek at 9.57. If you're lucky.
Anthony Nolan
Ruminant
Gee I don't know Mac. As an Irish-Australian whose ancestry and cultural authenticity stands second to none I reckon that I've experienced sufficient crudeness of expression and coarseness of behaviour to know it when I see it. I'm sure that the Ireland of my recall, blurred though it is by a fog of whisky, beer and North African herb, is these days the very model of chaste decency that you and Sister Misconception always desired. It is, certainly as you say, a land of people who take responsibility for the debts of their betters, for sure. Who could ask for anything more than that?
Stiofán Mac Suibhne
Contrarian / Epistemologist
Not sure we are in disagreement. But sloganeering is more fun
Stiofán Mac Suibhne
Contrarian / Epistemologist
May the road rise to meet you and the wind be always on your back.....
Mike Hansen
Mr
The truth. Now that would be a novel idea.
The Australian and Greek governments have an agreement to share prorata the payment of pensions because of the huge number of Greeks who migrated to Australia after the second world war.
Greek Australians who return to Greece to retire get their pensions paid by the Australian government.
http://www.fahcsia.gov.au/sa/international/ssa/currentagreements/Pages/agreements-english_greece_qa.aspx#1
Lu de Prís
artist
'The Irish voted to accept their lot'.
Untrue - the debt we have been saddled with is certainly not all 'ours' but belongs to French and German banks. We certainly did not get a vote on the bail out, and the recent referdum contained a blackmail clause.
But nevermind. The euro is soon finished, You cannot create ficacl union by blackmail and austerity.
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R. Ambrose Raven
none
Most commentators on the Greek tragedy appear to become a little lost in the detail. Even worse, groups such as the KKE, to which one would look for a seriously different approach, appear to be equally lost. For a start, it isn't all about Greece. Overall, the media commentary is harmful rather than helpful. Class conflict - between the wealthy stratum that wishes to keep the cut of the take to which they've become accustomed and the less affluent rediscovering the meaning of "proletariat…
Read moreLu de Prís
artist
Good luck to the Greek people this time round - I hope they stand their ground by strengthening their pro bargaining vote.
Which is where the Irish referndum recently went wrong - it was NOT guilt, (as many outsiders report,) but straightforward blackmail clause in the treaty = vote No means you can no longer access ESMF funds.
Which is a barefaced lie.
With the majority of our youth emigrated, the bulk of is an elderly electorate; more easily bullied into believing this rubbish.
Also - only 60.3% voted Yes out of the 50.6% turnout. In other words only a third of the electorate voted Yes to further austerity.
If he Greek people demand a bargain (as is their democratic right, not Merkal's to take away) then the onus is on the EU to work with the will of the people, as there is no mechanism to forcably remove any state from the union.
Peter Ormonde
Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.
Farmer
True Lu,
The Irish people probably had little choice in the matter after their government effectively shouldered the full weight of private debt and bailed out the banks... one of the most absurd and self-destructive responses to the crisis imaginable.
In essence this decision put the entire costs of the speculators' big night out with the foreign banks onto the Irish taxpayer. Shameful.
Daryl Deal
retired
Let us look at the reality.
Corporate mass media, which controls and totally dominates approximately 90% of the worlds media, is owned and operated by just six US based corporations.
The major problem in Greece is that, this corporate owned and dominated media, with a hidden agenda, glosses over the real problems. That is, we are being only fed less than 5%, of the information needed to assess the big picture of what is really happening in the country.
Until, we are given the remaining 95% of the missing information, the US owned and dominated Corporate Mass Media, refuses to supply. Formulating any solution based on only 5% of the facts, is highly improbable, at the best of times.
cui bono.