Gun control could help the fight against homegrown terrorism

The gun control debate in the United States has been reawakened for the new year, with Vice President Joe Biden providing President Barack Obama with 19 recommendations for action on guns. As The Economist noted last year, when it comes to gun control, “this time may – just – prove different". But we…

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Vice President Joe Biden is spear-heading the Obama administration’s efforts to tackle gun control. EPA/Michael Reynolds

The gun control debate in the United States has been reawakened for the new year, with Vice President Joe Biden providing President Barack Obama with 19 recommendations for action on guns. As The Economist noted last year, when it comes to gun control, “this time may – just – prove different".

But we should not fool ourselves. Introducing measures such as closing the “gun-show loophole”, requiring background checks, tracking the movement and sale of weapons and banning assault weapons and high capacity magazines will not eradicate the potential for mass casualty attacks. Rather, these actions are designed to prevent the frequency and extent of such incidents.

Following the 1996 massacre in Port Arthur, Tasmania, which killed 35 people, strict gun control measures were brought in across Australia. As a result, more than 650,000 automatic and semi-automatic rifles were handed in and destroyed. Research published in the American Law and Economics Review noted the benefits. It found that firearm homicides dropped 59% in Australia between 1995 and 2006.

In 2011, Harvard University researchers revealed that in the 18 years prior to 1996 there were 13 mass casualty attacks involving guns in Australia (mass casualty attacks being defined as those with four or more fatalities). Since the introduction of gun control laws there have been none.

A military-style Bushmaster .223-calibre rifle was used in the Sandy Hook School massacre. EPA/Dave Ellis

Historical and cultural differences between Australians and Americans in their attitudes towards gun ownership mean that the scale of the issue in the United States is far greater than that faced by Australia. There are as many as 300 million guns throughout the United States and organisations such as the National Rifle Association wield enormous power and influence. There is also an ingrained scepticism throughout American society towards any move perceived as the federal government restricting the rights of the individual. These factors help explain to outside observers why reinstating the bans on the sale of assault weapons has not managed to gain widespread support, even after a series of tragic mass shootings.

The gun control debate is not just important in the context of school shootings but is also relevant to all forms of mass casualty attacks, including those that are religiously or ideologically inspired. In June 2011, al Qaeda’s media production arm released a video urging sympathisers to attack targets in the United States with firearms. It noted that “America is absolutely awash with easily obtainable firearms” and that the faithful should take advantage of the country’s gun stores and gun shows. Inspire magazine has also repeatedly urged such undertakings.

Since 9/11, there have been around 50 foiled attempts to carry out a mass casualty attack on American soil in the name of jihadist ideology. An additional four attempts have been successful and resulted in fatalities – at Fort Hood, Little Rock, the Seattle Jewish Federation and Los Angeles Airport. Each successful attack has involved firearms.

In August last year, six people were killed when a gunman with ties to the white supremacy movement opened fire at a Sikh temple in Wisconsin. The 69 Norwegians killed by Anders Breivik in July 2011 remind us of the potential damage assault weapons and high capacity magazines can cause in a civilian environment (eight were also killed in an associated bombing).

There has also been a significant increase in attempted jihadist plots in Western countries over the past five years. However, many of the perpetrators often have little or no training or expertise and these plots have tended to be less sophisticated than previous efforts more directly connected to international terrorist organisations. Importantly, there is a strong relationship between recent plots and a desire to use conventional weaponry (rather than explosives which require the acquisition of a number of materials and are difficult to assemble). In the same way that restricting the sale of certain chemicals may have gone some way to preventing a bombing inspired by jihadist ideology in America post 9/11, restricting access to assault rifles and high capacity magazines may also help prevent a large scale attack.

Wissam Mahmoud Fattal was sentenced to 13 years in prison for a plan to shoot as many soldiers as possible at Sydney’s Holsworthy Army Base in 2009. AAP/Julian Smith

The introduction of restrictions on the sale of firearms in Australia has helped prevent such a mass casualty attack. In 2005 and 2009, cells were intercepted in Victoria which planned to conduct mass casualty attacks in the name of jihadist ideology. Both unsuccessfully attempted to procure guns from the black market.

The 2005 cell used money raised through criminal activity in an attempt to purchase firearms for the group. Three men were also convicted of planning a suicide mission on Holsworthy Army Barracks in 2009 using guns that carried “up to 60 bullets”. These men were recorded commenting that with this type of weaponry, “20 minutes would be enough” to inflict mass casualties.

Fortunately, both groups had difficulty acquiring such weapons and authorities were able to intercept both cells before an attack could take place. These examples highlight the fact that for those wanting to inflict mass casualties, automatic weapons with high magazine capacities are the best weapon choice. Though the extent of the preparation and skill of a shooter is important, it is the equipment used that may ultimately determine the extent of the damage, particularly if a shooter lacks expertise.

Protecting citizens from mass casualty attacks must be the first security priority of any nation. Whether an attacker is motivated by distorted religious teaching, mental illness or revenge, governments must find ways to restrict the extent of the damage such individuals can potentially cause.

By introducing significant gun control measures President Obama has an opportunity to leave a legacy of helping to secure the safety of the American people.

Join the conversation

102 Comments sorted by

  1. Joe Gartner

    Tilter

    I don't think that gun control, as laudable as it is, does anything to stop the supply of firearms to criminal or terrorist elements. They are quite capable of purchasing, stealing or trading for firearms irrespective of the legislative environment or their nation of residence.
    What gun control achieves is the reduction of the casual slaughter of innocents by suicide, familial homicide and mass slayings by nutters like the columbine pair. This is a good thing but don't think that it will ever prevent serious, professional ne'er-do-wells from gaining access to high powered firearms and explosives.

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    1. Ellen Rowatt

      Primary Care Nurse

      In reply to Joe Gartner

      In relation to Joe's comments: The article does not claim that it will completely avoid mass casualties, but is a step to reducing. The response highlights people's tendencies to only ' hear' what supports their preconceived judgements- the article clearly explains that at least 2 terrorist attacks were averted on Australian soil when the groups tried to obtain weapons illegally.
      If there are less assault weapons in the community there are less to be stolen.

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    2. Joe Gartner

      Tilter

      In reply to Ellen Rowatt

      You missed my point, Ellen. The 'terrorist' attacks stopped in Australia were by little 't' terrorists, despite the potential horror that may have ensued. Big 'T' organised terrorists, organised crime etc have no difficulty stealing from military armouries, smuggling from overseas etc. What ASIO don't reveal is the number of big T terrorist attacks averted...
      I don't have a problem with gun control, but there are very few assault weons in the community, those that do possess them (licensed collectors…

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    3. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Joe Gartner

      The critical factor in stopping home grown jihadism is to build a tolerant, open and welcoming society. The yanks have a long long way to go there.

      Found myself yesterday listening to the NRA's take on Howard's gun laws here...an ad...." 69% increases in armed robbery, murder and mayhem has been unleashed... people afraid to leave their homes... " Must be some other Australia.

      One of the more disturbing aspects of the US "gun culture" (for want of a better word is the growing use of the "deefense…

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  2. David Clerke

    Teacher

    It is a distortion of the facts to say that murders dropped after Port Arthur. In fact gun related deaths continued to drop at the same rate afterwards as they did before and it is alarming to see a highly paid academic make this assertion. Seventy to eighty per cent of gun related deaths in Australia are suicides and only a handful of deaths involved guns that were banned in 1996. If the author's supposition were correct then the number of terrorist acts in Australia should have increased because there are now more firearms in the civilian community than before Port Arthur. At least one terrorist act was averted by courageous action on the part of a gun dealer who received abnormally large requests for firearms and ammunition, that had nothing to do with legislation new or old. Do not believe me, do not believe the author of the article, do you own checking and you will find everything I have said is true!

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    1. Joe Gartner

      Tilter

      In reply to David Clerke

      Not all firearms are the same. A semi automatic firearm (banned since port Arthur) is considerably more lethal than a lever/bolt action. Despite the fact that there are now more firearms in the community the ratio of semiautomatic to manual loading is much less, hence the authors contention of the reduction in potential for lethality.
      It's hard to mount a terrorist attack with a bolt action 5 round mag.

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    2. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Joe Gartner

      Well actually the AFP a few years ago tried to infiltrate a branch of the local gun club because they were considered to be potential snipers and that class of rifle is normally single shot. They were soon recognised and the shooters laughingly gave them advice on how to improve their marksmanship. However this article perpetuates the myth put about by people like Andrew Leigh (a Labor Member for Canberra) and Professor Simon Chapman that the Buyback of 96 has caused a gradual decline in gun related deaths. Think about it, only a handful have been seized since and a gun destroyed in 96 does not kill for a few subsequent years and then stop! Once it ceases to exist it does not kill anyone in any subsequent year.

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    3. Joe Gartner

      Tilter

      In reply to David Clerke

      Most homicides/ terrorist or criminal shootings are less than 100 m... Hardly the province of snipers. A strawman argument if ever I've heard one.
      Why would the AFP give a rats about a gun club when all licenced roo shooters in Australia could kill a man at 200 m? Sounds like hearsay or B.S.

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    4. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to David Clerke

      Keystone coppers... what a great short story ... infiltrating the shooters equivalent of the CWA... pure Lawson.

      Don't know about a "myth" of gradual and incremental reductions in deaths, David.

      It makes sense to me that a gun eliminated in 1996 is no longer available in each and every subsequent year. It is no longer within arm's reach when the missus leaves the damn cap off the toothpaste one time too many. There is a reduction over time... a cumulative effect.

      It's not like each gun kills each year David. It is that they are available - out in the shed - covered in an oily rag or dust. And I for one, am very glad we don't have too many of them about.

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    5. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Joe Gartner

      Are you saying that a .223 in a semi auto - good for about 400 yards, is less lethal than a say a 30-06 manual repeating rifle which is good for 800-1000 yards and fires a projectile over 3 times heavier? Dead is dead. You are just as dead if you are fatally shot with a .223 semi auto, or a 30-06 bolt gun, so lethality has little to do with the mechanics of the action, and everything to do with the ammunition type, and the skill of the shooter.

      Bolt actions can have any size mag you can fit to it. hell the .303 has a factory 10 shot mag, and an optional (but admittedly rare) 20 shot factory mag.

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    6. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      I meant 'Are you saying that the .223 in semi auto - good for about 400 yards is MORE lethal than say a 30-06'.

      Curse these distractions and the lack of an edit function.

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    7. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      As I said earlier and is easily checked, firearms have increased, deaths decreased. If there had been a sudden decrease in firearm related deaths the year after the buyback then Leigh and Chapman might have a case but it did not happen. To credit for example, a decline in gun related deaths between 1998 and 1999 to the absence of something which was destroyed years earlier obviously defies logic. Any terrorist thinking of hosing an area with automatic fire would either have to have an escape plan (?) or not. If not he might as well become a suicide bomber, Even in Afghanistan Pakistan and Iraq the weapon of choice is an improvised explosive device the availability of which has nothing to do with firearms laws. And the story of the AFP trying to infiltrate the Bench Resters is highly improbable but actually true. I was not told until years later and had to check it before I could believe it.

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    8. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to David Clerke

      The point of te piece David is that American terrorists - be they political fringedwellers or insane adolescents who just wanna kill - choose guns.

      As for the notion of weapons of choice... when one wanders through the market in Peshawar one is not seeing fellas out parading themselves and their IEDs. It's the AK 47. It's the new black.

      Now if your just wanting to kill a lot of folks and it doesn't matter who - then yep IEDs every time. Particularly of you're enemy is well armed and protected and might snap back. It's the tool and strategy of choice - but that doesn't make it the iconic weapon.

      And in these places having a Kalashnikov over your shoulder is as obligatatory as the latest smartphone. The compulsory fashion accessory.

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    9. Joe Gartner

      Tilter

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      You are confusing lethality to an individual with lethality to a group. Why is it, do you think, that the military no longer use large calibre, bolt action rifles( with the exception of snipers)?
      The point is that an armed villain can kill the occupants of a room, a mall, a tourist site quickly and efficiently with a self loading, high capacity assault rifle. This cannot be achieved with a low capacity, bolt action rifle- irrespective of the kinetic energy, penetrative power or dimensions of the round.

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    10. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Joe Gartner

      They dont lose large calibres because pound for pound, a soldier can carry far more rounds of, say 5.56mm than it can 7.62mm. Of course this is trending back the other way now, because groups like the Taliban use harassing fire from their over 50 year old 303s at ranges a 5.56mm M4 could only ever dream of coming at you from. Then of course there's the penetrating power problem. They're re-equipping US units with 7.62mm M14s (Korean war vintage) to try and penetrate through the thick walls and doors that they encounter.

      Exactly how fast would you need to shoot, to kill a room full of 6 year olds? How big a mag would you need, if you can carry as many as you can fit on your person? To say it CANNOT be achieved, in the 20 minutes it took police to respond, is just ignorant.

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  3. Ian Donald Lowe

    Seeker of Truth

    Problem - reaction - solution. It's the same old story.

    The real terrorists are the US army and it's allies. How about the US government practice what it preaches and take some steps down the path of gun control of it's military, before breaking the second ammendment? The heavy-handedness of police and federal agents in the USA is frightening to watch, even from a great distance. The road blocks, body searches, full-body scanners and arrests without cause all smack of a fascist state. That is what the second ammendment is supposed to guard against, or at least be a last desperate protection for free citizens against a tyrannical government.

    But here in Oz, we are already well ensconced in the Nanny State and we have learned to love Big Brother. We always were prisoners of the Crown and we remain so today. I say it once again, the real terrorists are the governments and they are the greatest threat to our freedom and well-being.

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  4. Leigh Nunn

    logged in via Facebook

    Obviously the author of this article completely ignores the 'mass casualty event' at Monash University in 2002 (just 6 years after the Port Arthur Massacre) - a school shooting in which 2 students were shot dead, and 5 were wounded.

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    1. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      It said mass casualty. A wounding is a casualty. I'm just pointing out the flaws in the article. I'm still trying to work out the correlation between laws that restrict the law abiding, and how they stopped crims from getting guns on the black market - which doesnt care about laws at all.

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    2. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter seems to be having his usual problems with logic. So I will explain things as simply as I can. In 1996 some 650,000 rifles and shotguns were seized and destroyed. Since then a million have been imported.The gun related deaths have fallen since 96 at the same rate as they were before. More guns, more gun owners, more people but less deaths. Very few killings involved the type of firearm which was banned, certainly not the 200 claimed by Andrew Leigh. Very few terrorist acts actually involve even semi automatic firearms, the weapon of choice in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan is the IED which can easily be fabricated using information gained on the web. There are now more firearms available in Australia than before Port Arthur but less deaths,

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    3. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      Not statistically it's not Leigh .. doesn't make it into the count at all. That Sally-Anne Gifford woman - shot in the head by a madman - would not even be a statistic were she not an elected celebrity. Not at a national level in the US.

      Not the article's fault - it's ours I guess - in what we choose to measure and count.

      I did a lot of digging about in US data and stats following the Connecticut massacres. Woundings - life-long mutilation and disability - not a jot. But stuff on "race…

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    4. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      I dont particularly care what is 'statistically correct'. This isnt a dissertation on statistics... its a presentation of facts in support of a statement or opinion. The dictionary definition of casualty is an injury or death. Fact. Its poorly worded by the author, and if he opens the door by usage of poor language, I am going to go through it.

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    5. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to David Clerke

      "ery few killings involved the type of firearm which was banned, certainly not the 200 claimed by Andrew Leigh."

      Got some data there for us?

      "Very few terrorist acts actually involve even semi automatic firearms"

      No, most of them involve automatic weapons (when firearms are used in preference to IEDs or other weapons) - and why not, since they are so freely available.

      "There are now more firearms available in Australia than before Port Arthur but less deaths"

      Sure - I'll grant there are more weapons, but we also have rigourous license checks, strict rules on storage of firarms, ammunition and safety training and none of those new guns are assault weapons with high capacity magazines.

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    6. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      Automatic weapons have been banned everywhere (except Tasmania) since the late 1920s/early 1930s. I dont remember so many being freely available, even prior to 1996. Even in the US - where the probability of obtaining a fully automatic weapon is arguably higher (since some select few can obtain them on collectors permits - all tracked by the federal govt)... there havent been any.

      There are plenty of new 'assault weapons' - an incorrect term, since a knife could be an assault weapon if used to…

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    7. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, I never thought I would agree with you! But you have more courage than I have to make the point that you have. It is a tragedy and a disgrace what happened recently in the US but if ten time that number had died in backyard swimming pools it would unlikely to be mentioned.

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    8. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to David Clerke

      Thanks David, I appreciate the simplicity.

      It appears not only is my logic failing but my comprehension- even of the most simple statements.

      Could you please explain what this means: "The gun related deaths have fallen since 96 at the same rate as they were before.".

      The actual weapon of choice in all these places is the Kalashnikov AK 47. The Afghans got mountains of 'em and endless ammunition during their tummy tickling session with the old USSR. They also make them. So do the Pakistanis…

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    9. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      " Its better to restrict the people who want to do such things from getting ANY guns at all, than say those that wont do it, have to be treated like they will."

      No they are treated like they CAN Leigh which is a simple statement of fact.

      Now that's a good idea stopping potential mass murderers from getting access to crowd killer firepower. How? How do we spot them? One eyebrow? Too many black clothes?

      I reckon the new rules - and the outcomes - have been excellent. The local and Federal coppers need to do more about illegal imports and sales - and illegal mods. But it is difficult to stop professional crims tooling up. As it is impossible to collect all the AK47s from serious pig shooters.

      But serious pig shooters never use toothpaste and don't care if the dog leaves the cap off.

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    10. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Regarding rate of gun related deaths I was obviously referring to Australia and would refer you to the AIC web page. Obviously there are swings from year to year but the overall decline started decades before Port Arthur. But put yourself in the shoes of a terrorist, as would any anti terrorist force, how would you use an assault rifle v an IED. I would lay an IED with a view to not being caught so I could lay another one. If I wanted to shoot a dignitary I would use an accurate rifle, you may remember Johny Howard and his bullet proof jacket. But once again there is no way that the Buyback of 96 can claim credit for any gradual decline in deaths involving a firearm.

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    11. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to David Clerke

      So - it being hot and me being lazy I went off and had a wander through the Institute of Criminology website - and I found this: http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/tandi/261-280/tandi269/view%20paper.html

      Noiw this looks at gun deaths between 1991 and 2001. And the giblets show that following 1996 the rates of death from shotguns hunting rifles and military rifles (don't know where the 303 would fit) dropped substantially and have stayed down.

      Table 4 : Number of firearm related…

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    12. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to John Phillip

      Oh heck these laws won't get the Missus to remember that toothpaste cap! People will still kill each other - although with guns here, mostly they only kill themselves (near 80%).

      They will use lumps of wood, or kitchen knives or even spoons or egg beaters or maybe they'll push you downstairs while you're drunk, or throw a toaster in while you're having a soak in the bath, enjoying a banana dacquiri. Then say it was an accident.

      But at least they won't be using high capacity rapid shot crowd killers.

      Now we just have to ban stairs. And perhaps banana dacquiris. Onward ever onward!

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    13. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Actually you are going off topic but you may wish to look at allied casualty lists and see how many are due to rifle fire and how many to bombs. Most of the stuff made in the Tribal Territories is little more than a facismile and might last five rounds, simply status symbols.

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    14. Joe Gartner

      Tilter

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      I think you are confusing the various types of weapon.
      Fully automatic weons have not been legal, except under special licence (collectors) in my lifetime. These weapons will keep firing at a rate determined by their design until their magazine is empty or the trigger is released. Most military rifles have a selective fire whereby they may fire semi-automatically.
      Semi-automatic weapons fire one round with every depression of the trigger. They have been banned in australia(except for collectors…

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    15. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      And how much of an effect do you honestly think having no "assault weapons" had, as opposed to licensing, storage, safety training. There's only been one 'massacre' with what would be defined (incorrectly) as "assault weapons", in Australia's history, and that was the last one.

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    16. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      A woman CAN be a prostitute, but we dont presume as much, do we?

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  5. Grendelus Malleolus

    Senior Nerd

    A significant issue not being addressed in the comments below is that while Port Arthur was the catalyst for the National Firearms Agreement, there had been significant tightening of access to certain types of weapons in some states and territories prior to this in an effort to curb gun deaths. This lead to the decline in gun deaths that we see earlier than 1996.

    These included NSW through the Prohibited Weapons Act (1989) and the Firearms Legislation (Amendment) Act 1992; the Control of Weapons…

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    1. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      This is a nonsense comment unless you can show that prior to the date of change of legislation the newly banned firearms had been involved in the number of deaths which were now not occurring, this is the "Andrew Leigh assertion, 200 saved per year by banning firearms which had never killed 200 in any one year". Should you look at longer term data the trend is the same, downwards and once again just under eighty per cent of firearm deaths are suicide, for that task you do not need a twenty round magazine.

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    2. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to David Clerke

      You haven't seen some of the fellas around here when they've had a skinful... a clip of 20 wouldn't be enough. Especially with those little peashooters like in Connecticut. And now we've turn ed them loose in the National Parks!!!!!

      There is some suggestion of a switching effect between rifles and military weapons over to handguns but don't forget we are looking at rising background rate of suicide. Viewed against a rising rate of suicide (that is, incorporating other means of suicide than guns) would further highlight the decline in this means of dispatch.

      Either way its a damn sad number.

      The yanks kill each other - we do ourselves in.

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    3. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to David Clerke

      Why is that a nonsense comment David - have a look at the data.

      I indicated that yes, there was a decline in the rate of gun related deaths across the entire period of 1979 to 2010 - a compound rate of -4.7 across that period. If you look three chunks within that whole period however it gets very interesting - that first section 1979-1988 is like a slight downhill gradient which steepens slightly from 1989-1996 and after 1996 it gets steeper again.

      Ignoring Andrew Leigh (I did not use his…

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    4. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      You obviously do not realize that the rest of the legislation was cosmetic and few of those who handed in semi autos did not have other firearms which they did not hand in so their capacity to kill had hardly changed once again your position has no credibility given the fact that firearms, owners, and population have increased since Port Arthur but deaths have continued to decline, Given it is bloody obvious that the Buyback of 96 did not cause a sudden drop and could not have caused a long term decline (unless you take the Leigh/Chapman position that you can be killed with a gun which does not exist) what NEW legislative changes brought in 1996 were responsible and how? If they were in prior to 96 then they cannot be responsible for post 96 changes. It is a bit like crediting penicillin for a decline in death rates post 96 when it was already available and in use before then,

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    5. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to David Clerke

      David - lets take a different tack.

      To what factors do you attribute the decline in the rate per 100,000 of gun deaths over time?

      What is changing in society that gun deaths should decline?

      The rate of decline over time is not constant - it fluctuates, a trend that becomes clear when you look at large blocks of time - What causes those fluctuations, and why are we seeing a steeper downward trend?

      I'm not telling you why I am asking you what you think is causing the change.

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    6. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to David Clerke

      David, in addessing this point "You obviously do not realize that the rest of the legislation was cosmetic" you may wish to consider that some states and territories had minimal gun controls until 1996 - the legislation in this case is hardly cosmetic - it is entirely novel.

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    7. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      Very simple, increased training largely or exclusively by gun clubs, increased security which was about the only useful thing that came of 96 and lowering of suicide rates especially those involving firearms, traditionally rural areas. On the other hand pushing in the other direction is the increased killing of crims by other crims which is a characteristic of US figures.

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    8. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to David Clerke

      David - you are fudging your words now ... shifting ground like a crab scuttling about...

      What do you mean when you half-say this: "Given it is bloody obvious that the Buyback of 96 did not cause a sudden drop ..." in what? In the overall death rate from guns? Yes it did. From hunting rifles, shotguns and military weapons in particular? Yes it did.

      Total firearms deaths 1991 - 629... 1996 - 521 ... 1997- 433 down to 333 in 2001 and apparently staying there.

      The number of deaths…

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    9. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      The only problem I have with associating the gun buy back with a drop in gun deaths is that there was already a decline in gun deaths occurring, so it is hard to show exactly how effective the gun buy back was.

      I disagree with David about the suicides figure. Suicides overall have not really changed. Firearm suicides may have dropped but that is meaningless when the method of suicide has changed. Specific age ranges (15-24) did have a response, but this was about access to more efficient methods of suicide.

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    10. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Thanks for proving my point, firearms deaths according to your own figures dropped by over a hundred a year 91 to 96 but by less than that the following year, Once again you cannot credit the Buyback with further reductions unless once again you believe in the Leigh/Chapman thesis that the danger from a gun is inversely proportional to the time since it was destroyed. I assume that you are not crediting the Buyback with reducing deaths before it occurred? Some form of time travel which has actually been asserted by some commentators.

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    11. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      It is true that there were some state differences prior to Port Arthur but we have already had asserted that some states had tightened up prior to that date so post 96 cannot be credited to 96 changes when they had only occurred. But let people do some homework and take figures for the NT and ACT which had strict controls and virtually identical. What happened there compared with States which had been "soft" and were now hard. If the legislation made a difference it should have had a bigger effect in previously soft states and brought them into line with the previously hard states.

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    12. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Tim Scanlon

      Tim - On the face of it yes, there was indeed a decline - they key is to look at the change of rate in decline. This idea was sparked by David's earlier claim that "gun related deaths have fallen since 96 at the same rate as they were before". This seemed to be a claim that if valid, would support David's assertion that the 1996 changed nothing. However is is relatively easy to compare the period prior to 1996 and the period after and demonstrate that the rate of decline nearly doubles from 1996. Something caused that change in rate - while I acknowledge that correllation does not imply causation Occams razor suggests that in the absence of a better explanation...

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    13. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      Grendelous, I agree, I'm just saying that it is hard to ascertain how much we can attribute. I disagree with David that the gun buy back did nothing, but I don't agree that the entire change in annual deaths was as a result of the buy back either.

      The rate changes are hard to assess with annual data, especially with such a radical change in the system. I think it is fair to say that the gun buy back resulted in a lowering of deaths, I just don't like putting a whole figure on it, especially not the entire drop in gun deaths.

      I really hate it when the anti-gun crowd include the suicide figures with the gun deaths to obfuscate the actual change as well.

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    14. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Tim Scanlon

      Tim has made one of the few intelligent comments in this discussion. When looking at suicides, nearly eighty per cent of firearms deaths in Australia, we have to disagregate figures sensibly and look at both immediate substitution over time. Frequently when a method of suicide is removed, for example coal gas in the UK, suicides will fall but be made up is subsequent years to "make up the back log.Likewise there are numerous examples of people with access to firearms who choose other methods, for example the fairly recent tragic death of an ACT Police Commissioner.

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    15. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to Tim Scanlon

      Tim - I concur, I am not sure that even Andrew Leigh is claiming that the entire change resulted from the buyback - at least in his media article yesterday he acknowledges the existing decline.

      "The rate changes are hard to assess with annual data, especially with such a radical change in the system. I think it is fair to say that the gun buy back resulted in a lowering of deaths, I just don't like putting a whole figure on it, especially not the entire drop in gun deaths."

      I agree - I used a compound growth rate calculation over decadal blocks for my analysis - annual data taken as single points with small numbers is subject to high uncertainty. I am intrigued by what was driving the change prior to 1989 and the magnitude of impact from NSW and Victorian legislation prior to 1996.

      I agree - suicides should not be considered when examining change to violent gun deaths.

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    16. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to David Clerke

      I would have been amused (and possibly supportive) if you had claimed that Tim had made the ONLY intelligent comment in this discussion...

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    17. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      Did you factor proportion of hand-back that had occurred?

      Because that would be a great indicator of the drop as a result. I know the licensing changes resulted in hand-backs for a few years before levelling off, but have never seen the figures.

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    18. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to David Clerke

      Now David this is going to be very difficult if you won't read the IAC piece. I cannot post the graphs and tables that demonstrate the facts most eloquently.

      I agree that there was a declining trend but that trend gathered pace significantly after the buy back was introduced.

      You directed me to this outfit yourself remember. And I did. And now you don't really wanna talk about it ... come on.... be a sport.

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    19. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      So you believe that the chances of being killed by a gun is related to how long ago it was destroyed? Incidentally Andrew Leigh seems to have changed his tune on this I would refer you to his publication Weak Tests and Strong Conclusions which attempted poorly, to answer issues raised in a peer reviewed paper by Dr Samantha McPhedran, forget about decade blocks, simply use a moving average.

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    20. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Grendelus Malleolus

      The only case he may have and I emphasize may, is that there have been no mass shootings since but even with Port Arthur these were minor in the overall scheme of things. There have been none in NZ either which is about as culturally similar to Australia as you can get. The last I looked two areas in Australia had had identical legislation for as long as anyone can remember, the ACT and the NT because the Federal Government had ruled both and brought in identical legislation. ACT had the lowest murder rate and firearms related deaths and the NT the highest. Different populations with the ACT having high employment and education, the NT very high young male, very high alcohol consumption and high family and group violence among a sector of the population which I am not allowed to name but which were referred to in the recent Reith Lectures where an aboriginal mine worker said a big advantage of working on the mines was the absence of violence.

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    21. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to David Clerke

      Oooh dear ... not a history teacher are you David?

      Here's what was going on:

      1984 Milperra "massacre"
      1987, Hoddle Street massacre
      1987 Queen Street massacre
      1991 Strathfield massacre.

      Shooting massacres in Australia and other English-speaking countries often occurred close together in time. Forensic psychiatrists attribute this to copycat behaviour which is in many cases triggered by sensational media treatment. Mass murderers study media reports and imitate the actions and equipment that are sensationalised in them.

      This set of laws pretty much stopped that in its tracks David.
      1984 - Milperra "massacre"

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    22. David Clerke

      Teacher

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Yep said that might be a case but when did such shootings account for two hundred a year? Prior to Port Arthur the biggest mass murder was the Whiskey a Go Go which was done with a can of petrol

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    23. Grendelus Malleolus

      Senior Nerd

      In reply to John Phillip

      No John - but that seems like a valid line of enquiry so I shall try and see if I can find data broken down by state and territory.

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    24. Joe Gartner

      Tilter

      In reply to David Clerke

      If you disregard the number of massacres in colonial Australia... Which I acknowledge we're not committed with semi-auto rifles, presumably because they were yet to be invented.

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  6. Tim Scanlon

    Debunker

    I'm a little sick of the fraudulent statistics both sides of this gun debate use.

    First of all, it is not currently legal in the US to own an assault rifle. An assault rifle is a military grade weapon, capable of full auto and burst fire.
    300 million guns is not actually that many guns, as it equates to just over 3 guns per gun owner. That is to say that each gun owner would have a rifle, a shotgun and a pistol, which is hardly extreme.
    There isn't a gun show loophole. Private sales of firearms…

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    1. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Tim Scanlon

      Agree with pretty much all of that Tim.

      Must admit I'm still trying to work out what one hunts with one of these Bushmaster things - large flocks of racoons? Piddly little slugs and lots of 'em. Let alone an Uzi.

      It's truly amazing what one can buy on-line. And cheap too given the level of celebrity achieved with a decent slaughter. Quite a small outlay really.

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    2. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Bushmaster isn't much good for anything other than shooting at a range, unless you want to shoot people. Uzi is apparently used by close protection details quite a bit, so that tells you what they are used for.

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    3. Suzann Horton

      Legal Secretary

      In reply to Tim Scanlon

      Tim Scanlon your comment "The second amendment does not allow for personal gun ownership. It allows for people to join a militia." is not correct but sadly something I do hear as an ‘interpretation’ from a few Australians.

      US 2nd Amendment states:- A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

      There was no standing army in the 13 Colonies. The Continental Army was formed AFTER the outbreak…

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    4. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Suzann Horton

      I'm intrigued by this notion that the idea behind the US constitution was to allow a revolt against an elected government via the second amendment.

      So who decides that the time is right for violent revolution, fighting in the streets? Who decides that a Black, Islamic, Foreign-born, socialist like Obama is a step too far? Give us an inkling into your thinking here Suzann - what would have you reaching for the trigger?

      When is democracy a risk to American freedom?

      As for me I'm starting a fund raiser to purchase decent god fearing weaponry like Uzis and Bushmasters for the Blacks and Latinos who it appears don't get quite so much of a licence for packing heat. Who do these gun-toting freedom loving democrats thing they will be fighting - more toddlers?

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    5. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Maybe when the government decides you are to be interned because you are jewish, homosexual, disabled, spoke out against the government, and so on. Yeah didnt happen in the 18th century, did it? Didnt happen in some backwards 3rd world African nation, did it?

      Bushmasters are very effective at eradicating feral pigs, kangaroos, and the like, in number, and in particular when on the move. I partake in this, but not with a bushmaster because I am not allowed - despite the farmer on the land in which…

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    6. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      Leigh,

      Have you ever used a Bushmaster or the like on pigs? Know anyone who has? I'd very much doubt it.

      How many 223 slugs to the head do you reckon it would take to drop a charging boar - in numbers even.... at a safe distance.

      More likely you'll be spraying wildly into moving bushes mate... pigs long gone...shredding the vegetation and the odd Swedish backpacker.

      The reason I ask is that the pig shooters around here - and isn't that everyone - all reckon a 308 is the optimum. Some…

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    7. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      You can get Bushmasters in .308 calibre, based on the AR10/XM15 that are regularly used on pigs. Been around since mid 2000s.

      http://www.bushmaster.com/electronic-documents/2005Catalogv1/Page%206-7%20308%20Rifles.pdf

      We have a number of contract shooters in my club with them, who often shoot from helicopters as well as land based vehicles. .223's are used for roos, mostly, as I am sure you are aware. They have them, too.

      If I had my choice, I'd have an M1A/M14. Its fine for the job, with…

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    8. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      I still have trouble what anyone would want with one of their piddly things - massacring cockatoos maybe. Tempted myself often. Especially when they cut my nets.

      From what I'm told about it by those who do this for "fun" - shooting a charging boar or even a maddened sow - is s not unlike shooting at a D-9 Bulldozer once they've got up a head of steam... they just keep coming... surprising quickly.

      I'd be wanting a Howitzer myself.

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    9. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      I shot a 100+kg boar on the run with a .308 with 168 grain ballistic tip hollow points.... and it just kept running like nothing was happening. 2nd shot turned its brain box to a pile of goo and bone fragments and that was that. Autopsy showed the first bullet performed as it was supposed to, just wasnt enough for a boar pumped up on adrenaline. I dont do it for fun, I just do it because I am a good shot, and these farmers need a hand. There's no trophies on my wall, I dont booze up and shoot, and I dont get paid to do it. In fact I usually pay for the privilege of staying in their shearer's quarters and using their facilities. I'd just rather do it with the most effective equipment - and on my list, it'd be an M14/M1A variant.

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    10. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to Suzann Horton

      Suzann: Not to get nit-picky here, but what part of "a well regulated militia" did you miss in the 2nd Amendment? Because that sounds pretty conditional on firearms ownership, which in turn makes personal ownership contingent upon being part of a group that is recognised, well trained and lead (the regulated bit) militia.

      So what we are actually seeing is a derivation of that original amendment to allow marketing of firearms to people. The individual ownership is nothing to do with the original intention of the amendment.

      But let's go further, are you honestly wanting to tell me that everyone has the right to own firearms? Because there are plenty of people who I'd hope are never allowed to own firearms. Hence there are restrictions on the types of firearms, how many, in some instances licensing and safety measures are required. So it isn't a right to own a firearm, but a privilege. Please don't pretend otherwise.

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    11. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      Leigh, I was talking about the intermediate calibre firearms, or "assault rifles". The 5.56mm NATO and 7.62x39 are overpowered for small game, designed more to wound medium sized targets (humans included), and aren't tough enough - especially the 5.56 - for larger game.

      The .308 or 7.62 NATO I'd call possibly the best rifle cartridge ever made.

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    12. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Tim Scanlon

      The English Bill of Rights 1689 says we (Australians, since we also follow English Common Law) have the right to arms, it makes no mention of a militia or otherwise, however it varies with 'unless restricted by law', whereas the US 2nd Amendment, which was based on the English Bill, says that it shall not be infringed (by law).

      Perhaps the restriction on the types of people (rather than the types of firearm) is what is meant by 'well regulated' - since a person fit for duty (usually not a criminal…

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    13. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      I don't think the American founding fathers were that silly or knowledgable about the human condition Leigh. Don't think they anticipated folks who were so unhinged that they would be considered mentally unfit for military service because they were too violent.

      The essential difference is the notion of being an organised paramilitary force... not some rat-tag mob of folks with bazookas under the bed.

      The central question is - and was - how is this power to be used and deployed? Who decides…

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    14. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      I'd like to see background checks and proper licensing in the US. I think we go too far here, with the police often overturning license applications just for fun (one shooter was knocked back from buying a legal rifle because the Lapua had "armour piercing" bullets available for sale online).

      But they also need to change their attitude to violence and guns. They have try-hard weekend warriors going around shooting like they are in the army, yet they are too afraid to actually serve. They have…

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    15. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Tim Scanlon

      Aha - I suspected as much... I have only been allowed to see expurgated Constitutions where these clauses sanctioning insurrection are stashed.

      The Constitution allows us to own guns, subject to the laws that are applied to them. But not once ever have they - whoever they are - let me see any suggestion in the Sacred Text that the self and me paddy mates would be OK constitutionally to go throwing cowpats at our local betters or worse.

      Point me towards these refreshingly liberating clauses in our starch-collared Constitution, Mr Scanlon.

      A fienian figleaf of legal probity. Excellent. As if one were necessary.

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    16. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Whilst plenty of 'carry' firearms owners talk tough (and there's nothing wrong with that, free speech and all), at the end of the day in almost every state, to pull a gun on someone that is not threatening you (with grave violence or the clear threat of it) is guilty of assault... which can get their guns taken off them forever. OF course its also grounds for the other person or people to pull theirs and shoot you - justifiably. So, frequently, whilst they might say that, in reality its not the case…

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    17. Leigh Nunn

      logged in via Facebook

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      I'd like to see where the constitution allows us to own guns - specifically? Unless you mean we have the right to property. The right to guns and the right to regulate it by law, is in the British Bill of Rights, which is common law here.

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    18. Tim Scanlon

      Debunker

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Pete, I can't access it here at work to make sure this is the right link (heaven forbid we read the constitution) but the phrase to look for is overturning of government.

      More modern versions have additions to this about petitions and the like.

      The most interesting thing about the constitution (aside from the party system not being allowed, no support for cabinet officers either) is that Western Australia was disadvantaged financially by joining the nation and was to receive compensation. Seems nothing has changed except for WA getting that compensation.

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    19. Suzann Horton

      Legal Secretary

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Sorry but I am confused Peter, in your first paragraph you seem to wish to debate the fact that the 2nd Amendment was written to limit the power of the federal government in the USA, yet in your second paragraph you seem to be making a broader statement about why and when does anyone decide they have a right to start a violent revolution?

      I have no idea when or who will stand up and say enough is enough Peter but I do know there comes a point when citizens tend to question how much government…

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    20. Suzann Horton

      Legal Secretary

      In reply to Tim Scanlon

      Fact is fact whether you support it or not Tim:-

      YES - EVERY PERSON that is a US Citizen on US soil has a RIGHT to bear arms and this decision is upheld by the Supreme Court.

      That being said, only truly irresponsible people would ever advocate to have NO control whatsoever over ANY issue that creates such inherent risks to people/citizens.

      No matter how much everyone wants to muddy the water, the underlying REAL argument in the USA is how much government control is too much control…

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    21. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Suzann Horton

      No Suzann I have no doubt that the 2nd Amendment of your Constitution was designed to establish a counterveiling force against the elected government. But this was - in the words of the good Tom Jefferson himself - "a well-regulated militia" - not some rag-tag mob of individual NRA enthusiasts answerable to no one, part of nothing.

      Now I'd have a hunch that Tom was actually just redcognising the reality of the colonies at the time... bristling with rebels who didn't trust government in any shape…

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    22. Suzann Horton

      Legal Secretary

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      Well said Leigh!

      The difference lies in understanding. It lies between the difference in natural and legal right...you must make the distinction to even address the rest of it intelligently.

      The English and US Bill of Rights models aren't the same...for a reason! (possibly when the term hindsight was coined) I think the fact that the US Constitution written so long ago still stands so strong truly reflects the remarkable vision on the authors at such an early time...it is an amazing collaboration.

      $60 question is.....How much legal right is to be allowed by the government before it infringes on an individual's natural right.

      Nobody that I have ever talked to said make everything legal and do away with the control of the law...only stance I see is differing points of where the 'limit' of government law which is exactly what the Constitution was written to do.

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    23. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Suzann Horton

      I know that's the national mythology Suzann - that, unlike every set of political leaders in the known history of the business - your lot got together and tried to restrict what they could do.

      I'm not sure that would be a particularly realistic assessment of the situation your founding fathers were looking at. Have a think about the historical context.

      Declaration of Independence ... Rights of Man... the place was boiling with incendiary ideas ... but not necessarily amongst the politicians…

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    24. Suzann Horton

      Legal Secretary

      In reply to Leigh Nunn

      Leigh the 'well organized militia' referred to has since become the US NATIONAL GUARD (reserve military force).

      The US also has STATE militia (23) (these are NOT Federal but STATE maintained) and they aren't as 'rag tag' as you'd think.

      They contribute a lot more than you think and deserve a great deal of respect. They address State disasters and some have extensive medical brigades.

      The Texas Medical Rangers and Operation Lone Star is one of the largest public health humanitarian effort in the US.

      http://www.txsg.state.tx.us/

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_defense_force

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    25. Suzann Horton

      Legal Secretary

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Y'all are amusing me...how is it that you think the US is without militia in modern times?

      States in the United States can secede from the union. You'll find this is more the case than in 'individual' uprising.

      In Texas v. White, the United States Supreme Court ruled unilateral secession unconstitutional, while commenting that revolution or consent of the states could lead to a successful secession.

      Did you get that 'revolution' part?

      That means that unlike you are thinking (ie…

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    26. Suzann Horton

      Legal Secretary

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter, unfortunately when foreign people invade a country they aren’t received well by the natives especially after the new wears off. The colonists tried to befriend the natives albeit they wanted them to change and emulate the British. Naturally the natives resented the suggestion and hostilities took over.

      Declaration of Independence was written as an explanation to foreign governments as to WHY the colonies were separating from Britain...hence the emotion.

      The Declaration speaks of…

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    27. Suzann Horton

      Legal Secretary

      In reply to Peter Ormonde

      Peter it isn't a 'notion' it is a right yet the 2nd Amendment doesn't say you can 'make war' on Washington...it says 'being necessary to the security of a free State'.

      The US government is 'created' by the constitutional...not elected by it.

      Some States have already stood up against the Federal goverment on some recent issues, against having to create a State Exchange under obamacare, in relation to guns etc.

      The problem is the circumstances will be when unconstitutional things are coming down from the Federal government...you see some this week...who knows what the future will hold.

      He might just get impeached long before it gets to that point.

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    28. Peter Ormonde

      Peter Ormonde is a Friend of The Conversation.

      Farmer

      In reply to Suzann Horton

      Ah but Ms Suzann, the folks chanting their "second amendment rights" are not collecting Bushmasters to save themselves from the Canadians... it is to "protect themselves" from their own Federal government that they are stockpiling their weapons.

      I'm not surprised by the first amendment at all ... I love it. Given what they had seen the previous century with Cromwell when god got entangled in England's internal politics, the wonderfully enlightened secularism of the original Jeffersonian words…

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