tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/alp-599/articlesALP – The Conversation2023-08-18T08:25:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2118272023-08-18T08:25:00Z2023-08-18T08:25:00ZView from The Hill: Labor conference gives Albanese a firm ‘yes’ on AUKUS<p>Predictably, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese got his way on AUKUS at Labor’s national conference on Friday.</p>
<p>But, ironically, he and his colleagues had to do a good deal more wrangling with the party than Albanese had done when Labor embraced the agreement in opposition and then followed through in government.</p>
<p>After Scott Morrison, US President Joe Biden and then-british Prime minister Boris Johnson announced AUKUS, Albanese had the then opposition quickly fall in behind it, in line with his small target election strategy. </p>
<p>When implementation fell to the Labor government, again there was no hesitation. But extensive unease about AUKUS has been rippling around the Labor rank and file. <a href="https://theconversation.com/paul-keating-lashes-albanese-government-over-aukus-calling-it-labors-biggest-failure-since-ww1-201866">Paul Keating articulated the sentiment strongly a long time ago</a>.</p>
<p>In the run up to the national conference, Defence Minister Richard Marles and other Labor heavyweights have been taking soundings and smoothing the waters where possible. Marles briefed unions and rank and file party members as the conference loomed. </p>
<p>Intense negotiations among factional movers and shakers continued right up until the last minute. </p>
<p>On the conference floor, the vote was clear. It was taken on the voices. </p>
<p>They didn’t even bother with a formal count (although anyone could have asked for one). That was the way the power brokers wanted things - it left no record of precise numbers. </p>
<p>Like almost everything at this conference, the AUKUS debate was carefully orchestrated. </p>
<p>Albanese came in at the end to make the final pitch. He told delegates that AUKUS “is an act of clear-eyed pragmatism that works in the context of our national interest and in the context of the greater good.”
AUKUS involved “the choices of a mature nation.” </p>
<p>“We have to analyse the world as it is, rather than as we would want it to be. We have to bring our defence capabilities up to speed and AUKUS is central to that.” He said.</p>
<p>“I have come to the position, based upon advice and analysis, that nuclear-powered submarines are what Australia needs in the future”.</p>
<p>Government advocates put AUKUS in the context of Labor’s track record on defence. </p>
<p>The name of Labor icon and second world war prime minister John Curtin was invoked for some heavy-lifting for AUKUS. Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy said Curtin had argued in the 1930s for increases in the Australian air force and navy, and contrasted this with the stand of Robert Menzies. </p>
<p>“Do you want to be on the side of John Curtin, or do you want to be on the side of ‘Pig Iron Bob’,” Conroy asked. </p>
<p>In a debate where everyone was trying to be polite to everyone else - apart from some heckling from the floor - the link between appeasement and anti-AUKUS sentiment triggered some blowback. Michael Wright, from the Electrical Trades Union (ETU) who led the opposition against AUKUS, condemned any suggestion that this was akin to appeasement.</p>
<p>Behind the scenes and on the floor of conference, the ability of AUKUS and its submarine program to create jobs was used as a powerful argument. Albanese said it was expected to generate 20,000 well-paid, secure, unionised jobs. </p>
<p>In the pro-AUKUS statement the conference agreed to, jobs featured heavily. </p>
<p>“Labor will ensure that the nuclear-powered submarine program will deliver secure, well-paid unionised jobs and establish a skills and training centre of excellence, with Australian workers trained in the latest technologies that add to Australia’s sovereign capability,” the statement says.</p>
<p>“Labor commits that Australia’s SSN-AUKUS submarines will be built by Australian workers in South Australia, with a peak of 4,000 workers employed to design and build the infrastructure at Osborne and a further 4,000 to 5,500 jobs created to build the submarines.”</p>
<p>One speaker on the opposing side noted that the conversation before the debate was “union-led - both for and against”.</p>
<p>The opponents put forward a range of objections. Wright raised the prospect of a future Coalition government using the nuclear-powered submarines as “the wedge to drive the opening of a nuclear industry in Australia”. </p>
<p>Co-convenor of the Labor Environment Action Network, Felicity Wade, said: “Our people hate nukes”. </p>
<p>Federal Labor backbencher, Josh Wilson, the member for Fremantle, raised the challenge of nuclear waste, and said the decision involved “too many risks”. He rejected the appeasement argument as “ridiculous”. Wilson earlier this year spoke out strongly against the submarines deal.</p>
<p>The statement the conference endorsed says that Labor will “ensure that all Australian warships, including submarines, are Australian sovereign assets, commanded by Australian officers and under the sovereign control of the Australian Government”. It also provides assurances on the disposal of nuclear waste associated with the sumbarines and declares Labor “will maintain the prohibition on the establishment of nuclear power plants”. </p>
<p>Labor conferences are not what they once were in terms of power, but the government’s intense pre-conference efforts to get support for AUKUS showed it recognised it was important to formally sign up the party to this historic agreement. </p>
<p>By maximising the consultation, it minimised the fracture within Labor over this issue. </p>
<p>This sends a significant message to Australia’s US ally, where there is some (minority) questioning of the submarine deal.</p>
<p>Albanese can be well satisfied with this Labor conference, which wraps up on Saturday. It’s been smooth sailing. His authority has been highlighted.</p>
<p>The next few weeks, however, will be much rougher for the PM.</p>
<p>He must soon name the date for the Voice referendum vote. With the polls looking poor, that issue is shaping up as an extremely difficult battle for Albanese and other “yes” campaigners. </p>
<p>If the numbers are turned around, Albanese will end the year on a high. If, however, the double majority needed for success is not reached, it will be a significant blow for him. </p>
<p>That might not translate into the popular vote, especially given most people have their attention on other issues, notably cost of living. But it could diminish Albanese’s authority among his senior colleagues, who might start to question his judgement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211827/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After last-minute deliberations between Labor powerbrokers and unions, the AUKUS pact was endorsed by the ALP at its national conference this FridayMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099722023-07-18T12:35:19Z2023-07-18T12:35:19ZAndrew Leigh calls out how Labor’s factional ‘duopoly’ is undermining the party<p>Andrew Leigh, an assistant minister in the Albanese government, has launched a swingeing attack on the stranglehold the factional “duopoly” has on the Labor Party. </p>
<p>Leigh says the factions’ power is at an all-time high, which suppresses ideological debate, distorts preselections, and discourages people joining the party. </p>
<p>As one of two non-factional members of caucus, it is generally recognised that the promotion of Leigh, who has strong economic qualifications, has been handicapped by not being in the Left or Right. </p>
<p>In a speech to the Per Capita think tank’s John Cain Lunch, released before its Wednesday delivery, Leigh says he’s not arguing factions should be banned but that “not being in a faction should be as valid a choice as joining a faction”. </p>
<p>He says the silence about the factions and their operations “should be a clue. If a group’s practices and deals start to sound like they’ve been plucked from a John le Carre novel, these people should ask themselves whether their shenanigans befit Australia’s most important political party.” </p>
<p>In an excoriating critique of the way factionalism is operating at federal and state level, Leigh says today’s factions “are less likely to broker ideological debates than to try and find a way of avoiding the debate altogether”. He contrasts this with the 1990s feisty debates at NSW ALP conferences, and at national conferences, which showed Labor “was a sufficiently large tent to contain a spectrum of ideological perspectives”. </p>
<p>“If we stifle internal debate, we miss the chance to test our policies among ourselves,” Leigh says. </p>
<p>“As Assistant Minister for Competition, I can’t help but wonder if part of the problem is what we would call an increase in market concentration.” Leigh points to the collapse of the Centre Left faction, which was strong in the 1980s, and the decline of non-factional parliamentarians, producing a duopoly of Right and Left.</p>
<p>“And just as duopolies in the product market hurt consumers through price gouging and profiteering, so too duopoly factions may engage in behaviour that is not in the long-term interests of the party and its membership. </p>
<p>"When factional competition is less intense, dealmaking can replace debate. If factionalism becomes effectively compulsory, the party may become less dynamic.”</p>
<p>Factions can be profoundly undemocratic, Leigh says. </p>
<p>“In some jurisdictions, factions require their members to use a ‘show and tell’ approach to internal Labor Party elections. In the room where ballot papers are handed out, the faction sets up a second table. </p>
<p>"When members are given their ballot paper, they must walk over to the factional table, and hand their ballot paper to a factional official. </p>
<p>"That factional official then fills in their ballot paper, and gives it back to the party member to be deposited into the ballot box. This rule applies to all members of the faction, from new members to ministers. Failure to comply can mean expulsion from the faction.” </p>
<p>In contrast, “no Labor government would tolerate an organisation that set up a table in the corner of the polling station, asking people to volunteer to have their ballot papers filled in for them. We would see it as utterly undemocratic. Yet we tolerate it in our own internal elections.”</p>
<p>Criticising the way the factions carve up seats, Leigh says they are “at their worst when they serve only as competing executive recruitment agencies”. </p>
<p>“In most states, preselection is virtually impossible for people outside the factional system. It’s a case of Left, Right, or Out.”</p>
<p>He highlights the Victorian “Stability Pact” – “an agreement between the factions in which every winnable seat, every party leadership position, and every spot on every committee is divided between the Left and the Right, with a no-contest rule on the other’s possessions. </p>
<p>"Like the nineteenth century colonial powers meeting in Berlin to divide up Africa, the Stability Pact effectively takes away the ability of local members to have their say. Nominally, the party rules say that preselections depend equally on local member votes and the central committee. But if the factions vote together, then even a 90% local member vote can be overridden by a 95% central committee vote.” </p>
<p>Allocating seats to factions is “electorally reckless” because it can lead to failing to field the best person for a particular electorate, Leigh says. </p>
<p>He says factional dominance causes unnecessary division, with the risk of forcing new recruits to the party into an “uncomfortable choice”. Factionalism also has bad consequences in Young Labor and in university Labor clubs, with many campuses having two clubs, one for the Left and one for the Right. </p>
<p>“Factional dominance risks eliminating a tradition with deep roots in the Labor Party: people who simply choose to be part of the party,” Leigh says. </p>
<p>“Most Labor members will never seek a career in parliament or as a party official. They simply want their party to recognise that a non-factional member of the Labor Party is no less worthy than a factional member.</p>
<p>"On election day, these members will staff booths from dawn to dusk. They are motivated not by power, but by altruism. They joined Labor to shape a better nation. They should not be treated as second-class citizens within our party.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209972/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>He says factional dominance causes unnecessary division, with the risk of forcing new recruits to the party into an “uncomfortable choice”Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2055812023-06-04T20:05:17Z2023-06-04T20:05:17ZLabor and the Greens don’t get along. Here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529691/original/file-20230602-27-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Relations between a centrist Labor government feeling its way and an ascendant Greens party have become surprisingly strained of late.</p>
<p>The rancorous tone of public exchanges reveals deep-seated enmities born of an increasingly direct electoral contest in the inner cities, legitimate policy differences, and a hyper-sensitivity to criticisms made of each other.</p>
<p>A current flashpoint is Labor’s housing policy, or, as the Greens would describe it, Labor’s failure to square up to a full-blown rental affordability crisis.</p>
<p>Among its suite of policies, Labor proposes a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/22/what-is-labors-10bn-social-housing-fund-and-will-it-be-torn-down-by-parliament">Housing Australia Future Fund</a> (HAFF), which would use the earnings only on $10 billion in capital (up to a cap of $500 million a year) to build 30,000 social and affordable homes over three years.</p>
<p>Labor’s bill to create the HAFF is currently before the parliament. But it faces a difficult future with the Greens flagging they will join with the Coalition in the Senate to vote it down, insisting it lacks ambition. This is essentially the same rationale the Greens relied on to justify defeating the Rudd government’s 2009 Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Bill, which they said at the time, “locks in failure”.</p>
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<p>Labor is apoplectic. It accuses the smaller party of hypocrisy in claiming to speak for society’s most vulnerable while lining up with the conservatives to deliver no new social and affordable housing.</p>
<p>In parliament, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has described the Greens’ calls for a nationwide rent freeze - incentivised by a $1 billion federal fund - and a five-fold increase in social housing expenditure as “absolute pixie dust”.</p>
<p>Foreign Minister Penny Wong, who is also government leader in the Senate, rounded on the minor party’s housing spokesperson, Max Chandler-Mather, claiming he was engaging in stunts to boost his profile.</p>
<p>Responding to Greens senator Nick McKim in the Senate on May 11, a furious Wong <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/may/11/australia-politics-live-dutton-prepares-budget-response-trade-minister-flies-to-china-welfare-space-brittany-higgins?page=with:block-645c23398f08e5a61abaf559">said</a>: “Your spokesman on housing (Chandler-Mather sits in the lower house) is now prioritising media attention (before) housing for women and kids fleeing domestic violence. That’s shameful you know, this man’s ego.”</p>
<p>McKim hit back, saying Wong’s anger showed “that Mr Chandler-Mather is getting right under the skin of this government”.</p>
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<p>Such bitterness might seem curious given both Albanese and Wong hail from Labor’s left, the faction closest in values to the Greens party. But perhaps that closeness on the political spectrum is actually the problem.</p>
<p>Just as it is drily observed that the arguments in academia are so bitter because the stakes are so low, there is a sense that the deepest vitriol in parliamentary politics is actually reserved for parties of a similar philosophical hue: that is, parties competing for the same voters’ affections.</p>
<p>This tendency is not confined to the left. Even within the Coalition, subterranean antipathies between Liberal MPs holding rural-regional seats and Nationals occasionally bubble to the surface.</p>
<p>Liberals have also gone to extreme lengths to see off smaller right–wing parties. One notable case involved Tony Abbott in the late 1990s, when he urged One Nation members to take legal action against their fledgling party’s founder, Pauline Hanson. Abbott <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/abbotts-role-in-helping-ruin-hanson-20030826-gdw8q9.html">said</a> in 2003:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I met with numerous One Nation dissidents back in 1998 because I was very keen to bring about an end to what I thought was the counterproductive and destabilising influence of One Nation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While Labor MPs would be unlikely to say so publicly, it is likely many regard the Greens as a similarly “destabilising influence” on their end of the spectrum, if only because Greens MPs can propose spending, uninhibited by the likelihood of having to balance an entire budget themselves.</p>
<p>Current hostilities go back a long way. Labor resents being sniped at from its left flank for not moving fast enough on matters of climate, social policy and economic redistribution.</p>
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<p>For its part, the Greens bristle at being labelled “ideologically pure” – a tag clearly intended in the pejorative sense. </p>
<p>Bad blood lingers from the legislative <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-10-year-anniversary-of-our-climate-policy-abyss-but-dont-blame-the-greens-128239">failure of Rudd’s CPRS</a>. The country ended up with no economy-wide mechanism for emissions reduction. That situation continues to this day.</p>
<p>Indeed, it was probably memories of this that led to a compromise on the Albanese government’s toughened safeguards mechanism on industrial polluters earlier this year. This succeeded despite the Greens grumbling that the mechanism amounted to trying to put the climate fire out while pouring petrol on it.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-safeguard-mechanism-deal-is-only-a-half-win-for-the-greens-and-for-the-climate-202612">Australia's safeguard mechanism deal is only a half-win for the Greens, and for the climate</a>
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<p>However, on housing, the smaller party is taking a harder line.</p>
<p>How much of this is principle and how much is political positioning depends on perspective.</p>
<p>As the major parties’ share of first preference votes erodes, the minor party believes it can take a greater slice of the more progressive, younger vote by styling the Greens as the natural party of renters.</p>
<p>With Labor and the Coalition reluctant to curb generous tax breaks for property investors – negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions – the Greens believe they can specifically speak for those locked out of home ownership.</p>
<p>Speaking to the ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday, Chandler-Mather <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-04/greens-housing-spokesperson-max-chandler-mather/102438374">made that ambition manifest</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Last year, they recalled parliament around the country to put caps on energy prices, you see the treasurer get up and say, ‘we’ve put caps on energy prices. But all of a sudden, rents don’t matter. Why is it that a third of the country don’t get the sort of representation - renters - that a lot of other people in this country do?’.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>At just 30, Chandler-Mather scored one the last election’s most surprising upsets when he seized the Labor-held Brisbane seat of Griffith for the minor party. It was one of three lower house seats the Greens won in Queensland, which along with Melbourne, held by party leader Adam Bandt, took their total to four.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529696/original/file-20230602-23-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529696/original/file-20230602-23-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529696/original/file-20230602-23-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529696/original/file-20230602-23-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529696/original/file-20230602-23-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529696/original/file-20230602-23-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529696/original/file-20230602-23-jsaz8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">At just 30, the Greens’ Max Chandler-Mather won the Queensland seat of Griffith from Labor at the 2022 federal election. He is now the party’s spokesperson on housing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>A savvier political operator than any of his predecessors, Bandt has proved to be a shrewd negotiator. He is also a clear communicator, capable of delivering sharp attack lines against the government even as he reaches compromises.</p>
<p>His brand of assertive, values-based politics, tempered with a higher degree of political realism, has proved effective with his party room now 16–strong.</p>
<p>But, in politics, growth brings its own challenges.</p>
<p>Presenting as a party of immovable principle, rather than one of practical government, means that backing down in order to achieve some level of progress can become difficult. Party members may view compromise as retreat, failure or, even worse, as the politics of orthodoxy, major-party style.</p>
<p>This probably explains why, when Bandt’s party eventually supported Labor’s safeguard mechanism legislation in March, its votes came wrapped in scathing rhetoric more consistent with having opposed the bill. Bandt <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/government-still-captured-by-the-coal-and-gas-corporations-greens-leader/video/29227e5a10d4380cdc48ebc08e4e766c">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s become readily apparent that we are dealing here in this parliament with a government that is still captured by the coal and gas corporations.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A further difficulty for parties built on unwavering fidelity to principles, above all else, arises when strongly professed standards are not lived up to internally.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/greens-senator-says-shes-faced-racism-within-party-as-leader-acknowledges-problem/g8b2kraf1">Claims of racism</a> within the party – first made by a Victorian First Nations senator, Lidia Thorpe, who has become an independent senator, and then <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/30/mehreen-faruqi-reveals-she-has-experienced-racism-in-the-greens">by a current Greens frontbencher</a>, Pakistan-born NSW senator Mehreen Faruqi, present Bandt with a conundrum.</p>
<p>The Greens leader must be seen to be doing all he can to establish the facts behind the allegations while his instincts – just like his major party competitors – will be to reject the suggestions to protect the party’s reputation as uniquely enlightened.</p>
<p>“The Greens are an anti-racist party, the Greens are an anti-hate party,” he told Radio National Breakfast following the allegations.</p>
<p>There’s no doubt that this is his party’s policy, but is it also its practice in every interaction? It’s a big call, and another example of the interface between good intentions and competitive politics on the ground.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As they fight for the affections of the same voters, the two parties have engaged in a particularly nasty debate over housing.Mark Kenny, Professor, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2065812023-05-28T12:38:39Z2023-05-28T12:38:39ZAlbanese says nearly 90% of Indigenous people support the Voice, which embodies the ‘spirit of the fair go’<p>The Voice to Parliament is supported by nearly 90% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and provides an opportunity for an intergenerational solution to Indigenous problems, Anthony Albanese will say in a Monday address. </p>
<p>Delivering the Lowitja O'Donoghue Oration in Adelaide the Prime Minister will say the coming referendum, to be held later this year, “can be a moment of Australian unity”. </p>
<p>It will be “an extraordinary opportunity for every Australian to be counted and heard – to own this change and be proud of it, and truly live the spirit of the fair go,” Albanese says in his speech, issued ahead of delivery.</p>
<p>“After the tumult of colonisation, we have lived through a silence, a long tide of denial gnawing away at the shores of our spirit,” he says.</p>
<p>“And an entire people have been kept so long in the margins, surviving against the odds, surviving even against misguided good intentions.”</p>
<p>The Prime Minister’s speech comes ahead of a vote in the House of Representatives this week on the legislation to enable the referendum. The Liberal party, while advocating a no vote in the referendum, will not oppose the bill to hold that referendum. Some Liberals have broken ranks and are advocating for a yes vote in the referendum. </p>
<p>The debate about the Voice is becoming increasingly divisive – including among some high profile Indigenous leaders. But Albanese says it is supported by nearly 90% of Indigenous people.</p>
<p>In his address he ridicules the fearmongers saying, “It’s only a matter of time before they tell us that the Voice will fade the curtains”. </p>
<p>Albanese says Australia has “to come to grips with the past because a country that does not acknowledge the full truth of its history is burdened by its unspoken weight.</p>
<p>"But we learn. We acknowledge. And bit by bit, as we each admit each truth into our midst like a shaft of light, we are easing that burden. Moments of truth that include the Freedom Rides, the 1967 referendum, Mabo, Wik, the Redfern Speech, the Apology to the Stolen Generations and the red sand that was captured in a photograph on that brightest of days, forever flowing from Gough Whitlam’s hand into Vincent Lingiari’s.</p>
<p>"None stands as an answer in itself, but each step forward sees us narrowing the distance between reality and our perception of ourselves – and the people we aspire to be.</p>
<p>"We’ve always been at our best when we’ve looked to the future with excitement and hope – that’s when we make progress. </p>
<p>"And we are saying not just to each other but to the world that we are a mature nation coming to terms with our history, assured of our values, and shaping our own destiny.”</p>
<p>Albanese repeats his often-used line that the Voice referendum is not about politics or politicians but “about people”. </p>
<p>“People striving to make themselves heard across our great nation. In the regions and beyond in the remotest corners of our vast continent.</p>
<p>"All those voices rising across Australia like the headwaters of a thousand creeks and rivers joining into a mighty and wonderful current that will converge around each one of us as we step into the booth on referendum day.”</p>
<p>The referendum is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for change, he says. </p>
<p>“We are fortunate to be here in this moment in history, where we have within our hands the chance to make a positive change that will last for generations.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile Indigenous crossbencher Lidia Thorpe, who defected from the Greens, indicated she may abstain when a vote is taken on the referendum bill in the Senate.</p>
<p>She told the ABC she is definitely not in the no camp and never had been. </p>
<p>But the yes vote was to allow “for a powerless Voice to go into the Constitution. We don’t know what this looks like. It could be one person. It’s up to the
parliament to decide what the Voice looks like. So I can’t support
something that gives us no power. </p>
<p>"And I certainly cannot support a no campaign that is looking more like a white-supremacy campaign that is causing a lot of harm.”</p>
<p>She said Indigenous people wanted a treaty, and they wanted the recommendations from the Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody implemented. </p>
<p>“The government have an opportunity to show good faith and
implement those recommendations. They might get my vote if they do.”</p>
<p>Thorpe also flagged she planned to lodge a complaint with the Human Rights Commission about alleged racism she had experienced in the Greens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Delivering the Lowitja O'Donoghue Oration in Adelaide the Prime Minister will say the coming referendum, to be held later this year, “can be a moment of Australian unity”.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064132023-05-25T10:29:47Z2023-05-25T10:29:47ZGrattan on Friday: Labor’s national conference looms but the party’s rank and file has lost its bite<p>Stuart Robert, one of the ministers involved in the notorious Robodebt scheme, can anticipate some sharp criticism when the royal commission’s findings come. Robert won’t be able to avoid the flak, but he has made sure he is out of parliament before it lands. </p>
<p>The commission’s report is due early July; on July 15 voters in Robert’s Gold Coast seat of Fadden go to the polls in the byelection to choose his replacement. </p>
<p>Labor has yet to say whether it will contest the seat Robert held on a comfortable 10.6% margin, after a 3.5% swing against him on the two-party vote. </p>
<p>There are arguments both ways. After seizing the Victorian seat of Aston from the Liberals in April, there’s the smell of blood. Even in these volatile times the government doesn’t think it could “do an Aston” in Fadden, but a swing to Labor could further wound Peter Dutton.</p>
<p>But Queensland – Dutton’s home state – is hard going for Labor. A swing against the ALP would be a (minor) setback for the government and a morale boost for the Liberals. </p>
<p>It might also be seen as sending a message against the Queensland Labor government, which has lost its pandemic shine and faces an election next year. </p>
<p>A month after the byelection, the Labor Party will hold its national conference in Brisbane on August 17-19. Coincidentally, the venue is in the electorate of Griffith, which Labor lost to the Greens in 2022. </p>
<p>This will be the first face-to-face national conference in five years (a virtual conference, which didn’t amount to much, was held in 2021). </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-labors-julian-hill-on-employment-ai-julian-assange-and-tiktok-206399">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Labor's Julian Hill on employment, AI, Julian Assange and TikTok</a>
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<p>While some state delegations are still being chosen and so the numbers remain uncertain, the conference might possibly be the first in recent times where the left has the numbers. </p>
<p>But the notions of “left” and “right” don’t mean a lot in today’s Labor, except as groupings to dole out preselections, frontbench representation and other spoils. </p>
<p>Journalist Michael Pascoe, writing in the New Daily this week and focusing on the parliamentary party, declared: “Mr Albanese, the former leader of the left, has effectively abolished it.” </p>
<p>Most notably, a prime minister from the left has delivered the former Coalition government’s AUKUS deal, with hardly a murmur from that faction. </p>
<p>In a twist on how the story might have gone in earlier times, the most vocal criticisms of AUKUS and the implications of the submarine deal have come from two major figures from the right, former PM Paul Keating and former foreign minister Bob Carr. </p>
<p>Attacking AUKUS, Keating said he expected the issue would mobilise ALP branch members. Certainly one would anticipate that AUKUS and the submarines will trigger one of the more spirited debates at the Brisbane conference, including about the storage of the nuclear waste. </p>
<p>In the end, of course, AUKUS and whatever other contentious issues arise at the conference will be squared away. The government’s boat won’t be rocked. The leadership will not be embarrassed. </p>
<p>The conference might see an undercurrent of tensions between the pragmatists and those who would like the government to move faster on a progressive agenda, but the pragmatists will carry the day. The Albanese narrative of caution in the first term to win a second and hopefully a third is baked in. </p>
<p>Once, Labor national conferences set prescriptive platforms, although the timing of implementation was a matter for the caucus, which meant a Labor cabinet. </p>
<p>Victories came after struggles. In the early days of the Hawke government, then treasurer Paul Keating had to fight at the 1984 national conference to get approval for the entry of foreign banks into Australia. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-on-the-voice-the-quad-and-indian-pm-modis-visit-206305">Word from The Hill: On the Voice, the Quad, and Indian PM Modi's visit</a>
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<p>Before that conference a senior journalist, David Solomon, had written: “The party conference is the only real threat facing Prime Minister Robert Hawke and his government. The government has a huge lead in public opinion polls [..] Mr Hawke has an unprecedented 70 percent personal popularity in the polls. But the Labor Party requires its politicians to be responsive to the policies of its rank and file.”</p>
<p>The Hawke government had already defied the platform, in particular on floating the dollar, but by and large acknowledged the conference’s authority and the need to win its approval.</p>
<p>For instance, that government took plans for airline privatisation to a special national conference in 1990. Such a course would be unthinkable now. </p>
<p>These days the national conference, which is a mass affair of some 400 delegates, is more or less a toothless tiger. Even tigers without teeth have to be managed, however, and there’ll be a good deal of work behind the scenes to keep things as smooth as practicable in Brisbane. </p>
<p>The government’s aim will be to control issues at the conference as meticulously as it does in the caucus (despite the recent stirring on a couple of specific matters) and in Labor’s presentations in the public arena. </p>
<p>There is one issue, however, where the government is at risk of losing control. Not at the national conference, where there will be furious agreement, but in the electorate, which is far more serious. </p>
<p>That issue is the Voice to Parliament. While it is too early for the government to panic about the decline in support for the “yes” vote in some polling, it should be worried about the turn the debate is taking. </p>
<p>For Indigenous leaders to engage in personal attacks, as Noel Pearson did against Mick Gooda (both on the “yes” side), is neither respectful nor tactically wise. </p>
<p>For assistant minister Malarndirri McCarthy to be drawn into a shouting match at Senate estimates with maverick crossbencher Lidia Thorpe was to fall into a trap. </p>
<p>The further descent into claims about racism could be harmful for the “yes” case. Peter Dutton, in his speech to this week’s House of Representatives debate on the referendum legislation, used as one of his arguments against the Voice that it would “re-racialise” the nation. Anthony Albanese, in his contribution on Thursday, denounced Dutton’s speech as “simply unworthy of the alternative prime minister of this nation”.</p>
<p>There’s been a lot of talk about Albanese trying to get the Voice passed on “the vibe”, something he has been criticised for by those who say the detail is what should matter.</p>
<p>But “the vibe” is actually important in the effort to secure the referendum’s passage. That “vibe” encompasses fairness, doing the right thing by First Australians, the prospect of progress on closing the gap, a body that’s seen as unthreatening. </p>
<p>“The vibe” leaves voters feeling comfortable with the “yes” case.</p>
<p>Once the Liberals (preceded by the Nationals) decided to fight the Voice, the vibe was delivered a major blow. Now it is being undermined further as the debate gets rougher. </p>
<p>The referendum is far from doomed, but it is in a dangerous place.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Labor Party will hold its national conference in Brisbane. Coincidentally, the venue is in the electorate of Griffith, which Labor lost to the Greens in 2022Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2063992023-05-25T04:49:50Z2023-05-25T04:49:50ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Labor’s Julian Hill on employment, AI, Julian Assange and TikTok<p>The federal budget gave a much-needed, but very modest, increase to those on JobSeeker and associated payments. However, it didn’t address that other important issue of the unemployed: how to help as many JobSeekers as possible to get into work, whether full- or part-time.</p>
<p>This will be canvassed in the government’s coming white paper on employment. It’s already, however, before a parliamentary inquiry into employment services. </p>
<p>In this podcast, Julian Hill, the Labor member for Bruce, who chairs that inquiry, joins us to discuss the job market and getting people into work. Hill has also been actively working for Julian Assange’s release from London’s maximum-security Belmarsh Prison. </p>
<p>And he boasts a huge following on TikTok, the Chinese-owned social media platform, which is banned on official government devices.</p>
<p>In April, there were 528,000 unemployed people in Australia and 830,000 people on JobSeeker. Hill reiterates that “in simple terms, not all JobSeekers are unemployed and not all unemployed people are JobSeekers.”</p>
<p>“There’s a significant percentage of people receiving JobSeeker who may have their participation requirements paused. For example, there’s around 10% of people on JobSeeker at any point in time who are actually just sick. They’re there because they’re doing chemo, or recovering from a traumatic accident.”</p>
<p>“And there’s a very large percentage of people receiving JobSeeker, about 28% of people, who are engaged in part-time paid employment. So they’re not counted as unemployed, it’s just their income is low enough that they’re receiving a partial payment.” </p>
<p>Hill says the sentiment towards unemployed people and those on JobSeeker needs to change. “For too long this national debate about long-term unemployment has been driven by the stereotype of the ‘dole bludger’. If we’re going to actually try and resolve these questions in a better way and make an impact, we’ve got to drill down into the characteristics of people who are unemployed.”</p>
<p>The parliamentary inquiry “is a first principles review, not a Band-aid and sticky tape patch up. There is a "red hot labour market” with employers crying out for workers, but many people are having trouble getting jobs. </p>
<p>“A lot of that is due to a fundamental mismatch between people who are unemployed and the skilled jobs that employers are looking for. 53% of people who are unemployed have no post-school qualification. Around 40% haven’t even finished year 12. So there’s at least two, probably three, entry level JobSeekers applying for every job that is actually available.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/word-from-the-hill-on-the-voice-the-quad-and-indian-pm-modis-visit-206305">Word from The Hill: On the Voice, the Quad, and Indian PM Modi's visit</a>
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<p>In February, Hill delivered a speech to the chamber co-written by himself and ChatGPT. Hill spoke about both the negative and positive impacts we face with artifical intelligence, and what kind of potential it has.</p>
<p>“I did use the gag back in February to frankly draw attention to a serious policy point […] AI is set to transform developed human societies and impact swathes of developed economies and as well as government service delivery.”</p>
<p>“It’ll be non-traditional jobs [that go], in many cases knowledge jobs, graphic designers, journalists, artists and others, but it’s also an enormously positive thing and we should be expecting governments to deploy the best technology to free up resources for other things, make better decisions, better targeted services.</p>
<p>"It has the potential to unleash a wave of productivity across the economy.”</p>
<p>“There are negatives that we need to focus on. Loss of jobs in some areas, discrimination, bias. We need to be worried about the use of AI for things like hiring and lending and even renting. I’m worried for people trying to apply for a house. They’ll never get their application on the desk of the real estate agent.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-day-after-the-night-before-chalmers-and-taylor-on-the-budget-205431">The day after the night before - Chalmers and Taylor on the budget</a>
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<p>Earlier this week, Assange’s wife, Stella, addressed the National Press Club and called on the prime minister and the government to do more to bring him home. She stated: “This is closest we’ve ever been to securing Julian’s release”. Hill, a part of the Bring Julian Assange Home Parliamentary Group, believes there will be more progress in the near future. </p>
<p>“There are more positive signs, as Stella’s reflected. I’ve been outspoken on this for years, and my view has always been that this was a political decision to bring this prosecution, and it needs a political resolution led by the US government.”</p>
<p>“I organised and facilitated a meeting with US ambassador to Australia, Caroline Kennedy, and I thank her for that meeting. It was a good discussion, an honest, robust discussion and we got a good hearing.”</p>
<p>“There’s a lot of ongoing dialogue at the moment, and it can’t happen soon enough. Whether it’s an end to the prosecution, as I would call for by the US government, or whether it’s a negotiated resolution. There is, I think, a willingness to try and resolve the matter, and that’s incredibly welcome.”</p>
<p>“I’m actually planning to visit London near the end of June, and I’ve spoken to Jen Robinson, his legal counsel, about seeking to visit Julian in Belmarsh.”</p>
<p>“I hope that he’s not there then and then I can’t make and don’t have to make that visit.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206399/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In this podcast, Labor MP Julian Hill joins Michelle Grattan to discuss the job market and getting people into work, artificial intelligence, Julian Assange, and TikTok.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2047412023-04-30T20:02:37Z2023-04-30T20:02:37ZSome projects in $120 billion federal infrastructure pipeline set to be scrapped<p>Some projects in the $120 billion federal infrastructure investment pipeline that the Albanese government inherited from the Coalition will soon be on the chopping block.</p>
<p>This follows the announcement of a 90-day review of the pipeline, and sharp criticism by Infrastructure Minister Catherine King of the Coalition program. </p>
<p>There have been large cost escalations in many projects. Apart from inadequate costing to start with, supply chain pressures have drastically increased the costs of major projects. </p>
<p>The infrastructure pipeline includes rail and road projects in the capitals as well as rail and road construction and upgrades in regional and outback areas.</p>
<p>The government is keeping the size of the pipeline the same, but with its content changing. The review’s outcome is expected to be announced in the mid-year budget update released in December. There will not be new infrastructure projects announced in the May 9 budget. </p>
<p>King said the government was committed to delivering on its election promises and following through on projects now under construction.</p>
<p>The ambitious Brisbane to Melbourne inland railway has already been reviewed and guaranteed. The review, by Kerry Schott, recommended a number of ways to improve its delivery. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-chalmers-grapples-with-a-budget-where-economics-and-politics-pull-in-different-directions-203759">Grattan on Friday: Chalmers grapples with a budget where economics and politics pull in different directions</a>
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<p>King said that under the Coalition, the number of projects had blown out from from nearly 150 to 800. </p>
<p>“Projects were left without adequate funding or resources, projects without real benefits to the public were approved, and the clogged pipeline has caused delays and overruns in important, nation building projects,” she said. </p>
<p>Many projects never started, and some 160 had a commitment of $5 million or under.</p>
<p>The government needed to fix the situation. “Australia should have a pipeline of land transport infrastructure projects that are genuinely nation-building, economically sustainable and resilient to our changing climate,” King said.</p>
<p>The review will be done by Reece Waldock, a former director-general of the Western Australian transport department, Clare Gardiner-Barnes, a member of the Infrastructure Australia board, and Mike Mrdak, who once headed the federal infrastructure department.</p>
<p>States, territories and local government will be consulted in the review. It is seen as an opportunity for states to name any projects they are no longer committed to.</p>
<p>“A properly functioning infrastructure investment pipeline means projects can be delivered with more confidence about timeframes and budgets,” King said.</p>
<p>“Easing the pressure on the construction sector will help drive inflation lower and deliver more predictable investment and delivery outcomes from governments.”</p>
<p>Labor accuses the Coalition of using the infrastructure program for massive pork barrelling. It says when it took office only 19% of the infrastructure investment program projects with a federal government contribution under $50 million were in seats the ALP held before the election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The infrastructure pipeline includes rail and road projects in the capitals as well as rail and road construction and upgrades in regional and outback areasMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040382023-04-18T09:01:09Z2023-04-18T09:01:09ZView from The Hill: Albanese should not try to make the Voice the only game in town in Indigenous affairs<p>There are two huge issues in Indigenous affairs at the moment: the Voice and the problems in Northern Territory Indigenous communities, especially but not only in Alice Springs. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s attention is laser-like on the Voice, and trying to get up a yes vote. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, for a mix of motives, is focusing on the NT situation, as he campaigns against the Voice. </p>
<p>The issues are intertwined, not least because the government argues the Voice would help solve problems on the ground. But they are also separate, and in the near term they should be treated as such. </p>
<p>Dutton’s Tuesday appointment of NT Indigenous Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, as tough an opponent of the Voice as you could get, will probably assist the opposition leader’s no campaign. (That is not to say the no side will prevail – it’s far too early for predictions.) </p>
<p>Price, who will attract a lot of media, will put doubts into the minds of some voters, who may think that if this prominent Aboriginal figure sees no merits in the Voice, perhaps they should vote against it. On the other hand, Price is inexperienced and so a risk, if she lets her emotions get the better of her when provoked. And she will be countered by many Indigenous advocates for the yes case.</p>
<p>As matters stand, of the two leaders, Dutton and the prime minister, it is Dutton who is losing more skin in the referendum fight. </p>
<p>The most recent attacks on him, by Labor and other critics, are over his latest claims, after his trip to Alice Springs last week, of widespread child sexual abuse of Indigenous children – allegations critics see as a ploy in the battle over the Voice.</p>
<p>That said, the government’s wish to downplay the NT’s array of horrendous problems is both wrong in principle and perhaps ultimately a mistake tactically. </p>
<p>Albanese and other Labor figures have invoked a common line: if Dutton knows of cases of child sexual abuse, he should report them to the police. </p>
<p>This really doesn’t pass muster. It’s clear Dutton was not dealing forensically with particular cases (how could any visiting politician?), but with general information (accurate or not) he gathered during his latest visit to Alice Springs. He has said his information was “anecdotal” and that he’d spoken with police and social workers.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/your-questions-answered-on-the-voice-to-parliament-200818">Your questions answered on the Voice to Parliament</a>
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<p>Dutton says that, earlier, he passed on information directly to Albanese, something the PM denies. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/26233/&sid=0303">On November 30, Dutton canvassed the issue in a question to Albanese in parliament</a>. He referenced a recent meeting with the PM “to discuss the unprecedented and tragic levels of sexual abuse of children in Alice Springs and elsewhere in the Northern Territory.” He asked Albanese to support a royal commission into the “sexual abuse of Indigenous Australians”. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-17/albanese-dismisses-dutton-claim-child-sexual-assault-warnings/102233520">when Albanese was asked this week on the ABC’s 7:30</a> whether any information had been brought to him by Dutton “about children abused, children being returned to their abusers” he said “No. Not that I’m aware of. That is the first I’ve heard of it.”</p>
<p>Albanese went on to say he had no idea what Dutton’s recent assertions were based on. “I don’t know what the basis of it is. But certainly he has not raised any specific issue about any claim, about any individual circumstance with me. If he did, I would say to him that he should report that to the police.”</p>
<p>This does seem a deliberate avoidance of the issue. </p>
<p>Albanese’s own backbencher, Marion Scrymgour, formerly NT deputy chief minister, this week highlighted two issues – child protection and youth crime. </p>
<p>While very critical of Dutton for “irresponsible publicity-seeking claims” which cast suspicion on everyone, she said child neglect threw up “really high-risk issues”. </p>
<p>“If a child is being neglected, then they are more likely to be at risk of sexual abuse. So we need to unpack all of that and have a look at what is happening with those children that are falling into that category of neglect, because those numbers are increasing and not just in Alice Springs, but right throughout the Northern Territory,” she told Sky.</p>
<p>This, surely, is what Albanese and his government should be acknowledging.</p>
<p>The Voice is important. But there are serious problems here and now, and the government is negligent, or worse, if it doesn’t admit and confront that reality. The situation is obviously beyond the NT (Labor) government.</p>
<p>The extent of the problems needs to be assessed (and that would reveal, incidentally, whether Dutton is exaggerating). Then a strategy needs to be determined. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-in-the-kimberley-have-spent-decades-asking-for-basics-like-water-and-homes-will-the-voice-make-their-calls-more-compelling-202606">People in the Kimberley have spent decades asking for basics like water and homes. Will the Voice make their calls more compelling?</a>
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<p>Dutton wants a royal commission; Price has suggested a Commonwealth takeover of child protection responsibility. More modestly, Scrymgour has urged a Family Responsibility Commission, along the lines of the <a href="https://www.frcq.org.au/">Queensland body</a>, headed by a judicial figure, and with Indigenous leaders on it, to manage dysfunctional family situations, including 100% of their welfare income. </p>
<p>There is resistance to all these ideas, including from some Indigenous figures. The debate has a long way to go. </p>
<p>But it is already clear the Voice issue has taken the scrutiny of Indigenous affairs into areas that make governments uncomfortable. And that’s a good thing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anthony Albanese’s attention is laser-like on the Voice, and trying to get up a yes vote. Peter Dutton, for a mix of motives, is focusing on the NT situation, as he campaigns against the Voice.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2031162023-04-01T12:23:25Z2023-04-01T12:23:25ZLabor’s unexpected Aston win is body blow for Dutton<p>The rout of the Liberals in Aston is a disaster for Peter Dutton. </p>
<p>The party has defied history - in the worst possible way. This is the first time in more than a century that a government has taken a seat off an opposition at a byelection. </p>
<p>Both government and opposition expected a Liberal win, although they predicted a tight result. In the event Labor had a comfortable victory.</p>
<p>The centrepiece of Labor’s campaign was targeting the opposition leader, and Aston voters responded with a resounding ‘no’ when asked for a judgement on Dutton. </p>
<p>In 2001, a byelection in Aston put then prime minister John Howard back into the electoral game. In 2023, this byelection has undermined what authority the opposition leader has had.</p>
<p>There are no obvious alternatives to Dutton (although deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley and shadow treasurer Angus Taylor have aspirations). </p>
<p>But over coming months it’s likely there will be muttering and undermining of Dutton. </p>
<p>Dutton prides himself on having held together a party that is divided over whether to go to the right or the left. This defeat can be expected to intensify that internal argument.</p>
<p>It will also reduce Dutton’s ability to reform the party’s debilitated state organisations, including and especially in Victoria.</p>
<p>On Saturday night Dutton made the point that “it’s a tough market for us in Victoria”. Aston will feed into what has been a strong narrative - that Dutton, from Queensland and the right, is unelectable in this progressive southern state. </p>
<p>The timing of Alan Tudge’s departure from parliament was, certainly in retrospect, the worst possible. As if Tudge had not previously done enough damage to the Liberal party. Aston voters had already punished it over his behaviour with a big swing at the general election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-aston-byelection-nsw-election-and-trump-polling-updates-202716">Labor wins Aston byelection; NSW election and Trump polling updates</a>
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<p>In the byelection, many voters were frustrated they were at the ballot box for the third time in less than a year.</p>
<p>While the cost of living is at the front of people’s minds, Aston showed they are not blaming the Albanese government. They accept that the interest rate hikes and price rises are being driven by factors almost all outside the government’s control. </p>
<p>The Liberals had a strong candidate in Roshena Campbell, but she was parachuted into this outer-eastern suburban seat from Brunswick, seen as a long way away when localism is increasingly the electoral flavour. One is reminded of the fate of Labor’s Kristina Keneally when she was parachuted into a seat that wanted a local in last year’s election. </p>
<p>Labor’s Mary Doyle does not live in Aston but has resided in the region for some 35 years. </p>
<p>The Aston outcome reinforces the point that the Labor government’s honeymoon continues to flourish. The news of the past fortnight’s parliamentary sitting showed a government that was busy and chalking up wins, most notably this week’s deal to get its safeguard machinery legislation in place, which is key to implementing its climate policy. </p>
<p>One achievement of the Labor government that would have resonated with some Aston voters is the improvement in Australia’s relations with China. This electorate has a high proportion of residents of Chinese heritage. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-dutton-saddles-up-for-aston-race-amid-victorian-liberal-infighting-202600">View from The Hill: Dutton saddles up for Aston race amid Victorian Liberal infighting</a>
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<p>Dutton has promised to listen to the messages from the byelection, and to rebuild the party. It’s one thing to recognise there are lessons, but another to decipher precisely what they are, and yet another to put solutions in place.</p>
<p>It does, however, seem likely that voters are unimpressed with the Opposition’s constant negativity - which just deepens Dutton’s problem as he comes closer to having to formally declare his position on the Voice to Parliament.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This is the first time in more than a century that a government has won a byelection from an OppositionMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1970152022-12-22T06:39:20Z2022-12-22T06:39:20ZGrattan on Friday: Liberal post-mortem urges party to address flight of female vote – but not by quotas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502524/original/file-20221222-26-tcvxw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=86%2C61%2C8157%2C5425&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Liberal Party’s review of its election rout has highlighted the party’s broad and deep problem with the female vote, but shied away from recommending quotas to elect more women. </p>
<p>Like Labor’s recent post-mortem, the Liberal analysis also points to the key importance of voters’ negative perceptions of Scott Morrison in his government’s election loss. </p>
<p>Prepared by former party director Brian Loughnane and senator Jane Hume, the Liberal report, released today, presents a stark picture of extensive political and organisational failure. </p>
<p>“Put simply, by the time of the election the Coalition had lost control of its brand,” the report says. “We were not in control of the politics, and we were unable to frame the electoral contest.” </p>
<p>Morrison’s “standing with voters deteriorated significantly through 2021 to become a significant negative. The Prime Minister and the Party were seen as ‘out of touch’. </p>
<p>"The leadership choice between Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese became the most influential driver of voting intention during the campaign period.”</p>
<p>In the year before the election, “there was a loss of political capital and an accumulation of negative issues” for the government. </p>
<p>These included lost political focus due to the demands of the pandemic; allegations of the poor treatment of, and attitude toward, women; scandal, disunity and instability in the government; the government’s longevity and its lack of a clear forward agenda; and faults of state divisions of the party. </p>
<p>To rebuild, the report says, the Liberals must establish a “strong, grassroots presence”, state executives must act in the party’s electoral interests, the parliamentary team must be united and disciplined, and campaigning must be significantly improved.</p>
<p>In an important message as the party struggles against not just Labor but the new “teal” wave, the review declares the Liberals mustn’t give up on any of the seats lost to the teals in May. It also warns teal candidates could threaten other seats in future. </p>
<p>Surveying the Liberals’ current parlous electoral position, the review says: “The Party has lost nearly all of its inner metropolitan seats: 13 seats lost, 6 to Labor, 5 to Teal, 1 to Green, and 1 to redistribution. The Coalition now holds 4 [of the 44 inner metropolitan seats]. </p>
<p>"The Party has not held or provided any gains in outer metropolitan seats: 5 seats lost; 3 to Labor, 1 to Teal, 1 to Green. The Coalition now holds 16. </p>
<p>"Of particular concern in the results is that in seats with high numbers of female professional voters, the Liberal Party only holds three of the top 30 seats where previously it held 15. In the top 50 seats by female professionals, the Liberal Party only holds 10 seats where previously it held 25.”</p>
<p>Overall, the party “performed particularly poorly with female voters, continuing a trend that has been present since the election of 1996”.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-morrison-endures-the-witness-box-while-albanese-enjoys-being-in-the-box-seat-with-the-senate-196662">Grattan on Friday: Morrison endures the witness box, while Albanese enjoys being in the box seat with the Senate</a>
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<p>A majority of women preferred Labor across all age segments, the report says. </p>
<p>The Liberals’ two-party preferred vote was the weakest among women aged 18-34. Women aged 35-54 were the most likely segment to move from the Liberals, and women in this age group were the most likely segment to vote independent.</p>
<p>“Liberal defectors in Teal seats were highly likely to agree with the statement that ‘the treatment or attitude toward women within the Liberal Party had a strong influence on my vote’.”</p>
<p>The review says that if the Liberal party “is to fully reflect the Australian community the objective must be to improve the level of female members, particularly younger women, and to increase the level of representation of women as successful members of parliament, not just as candidates.</p>
<p>"The Party must therefore ensure that all Divisions are working to increase female membership, particularly of women under 50. The Party must also ensure there is a much larger number of high-quality female candidates contesting key, winnable seats at the next election. </p>
<p>"It is expected that by broadening the membership base with young women, and retaining them, that this will assist in identifying strong pre-selection candidates.”</p>
<p>The review recommends a target of 50% female representation in the party’s parliamentary ranks within ten years or three terms. </p>
<p>But it does not suggest imposing quotas for female candidates or MPs, as Labor has. There have been calls from some Liberals for quotas, but also strong resistance within the party to having them.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-spent-a-record-amount-on-taxpayer-funded-advertising-new-data-reveal-196870">The Morrison government spent a record amount on taxpayer-funded advertising, new data reveal</a>
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<p>Urging a robust fightback against the teals, the report says: “The Party must concede no seat and must vigorously contest the Teal seats at the next election. </p>
<p>"This will require the strongest possible candidate in each seat and a rebuilding of the Party infrastructure in each seat. It will also require specific strategies for each seat,” it says.</p>
<p>“The Liberal Party must monitor Teal statements and commitments as they will be the basis for future candidates campaigning against Teal incumbents. </p>
<p>"In addition, public comments by Teal campaign leaders are foreshadowing the possibility of Teal campaigns in additional seats currently held by the Coalition at the next election. </p>
<p>"The Party should be conscious of candidates as they are announced and work with Liberal incumbents to develop plans to counter these future candidates’ campaigns.”</p>
<p>The review recommends that for teal seats, the party begins searching early for possible candidates with strong community credentials.</p>
<p>The review urges action to win back the support of Chinese-Australians, who swung against the Morrison government. It recommends the parliamentary party should “develop an outreach programme for Party MPs and Senators to [culturally and linguistically diverse] communities, in particular the Chinese Australian community” as well as reviewing “the need for the appointment of additional staff with bilingual language skills”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197015/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Like Labor’s recent post-mortem, the Liberal analysis also points to the key importance of voters’ negative perceptions of Scott Morrison in his government’s election loss.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1895262022-08-28T12:30:48Z2022-08-28T12:30:48ZView from The Hill: Albanese seeks ‘new culture of co-operation’ out of summit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481406/original/file-20220828-43252-bpgec1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=582%2C265%2C1928%2C1047&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says the biggest outcome he wants from this week’s jobs and skills summit “is the beginning of a new culture of co-operation”. </p>
<p>In a Monday speech to mark his first 100 days in office, Albanese will say he is looking for progress on skills and training, wages and apprenticeships, and hopes there will be “some immediate actions” out of the summit. </p>
<p>But the basic aim is “a renewed understanding – between unions and industry and small business and government and community groups – that building a stronger, fairer and more productive economy is our shared responsibility, and our common interest. </p>
<p>"This is how we get employers and employees and small business negotiating for genuine win-win outcomes,” Albanese says in his speech, excerpts of which were released ahead of delivery. </p>
<p>“It’s how we make the federation work better, lifting efficiency, improving services and boosting productivity. </p>
<p>"This is how we sweep aside the persistent, structural barriers that prevent women from securing decent jobs and careers and enjoying financial security over their lives.” </p>
<p>The sharpest issue in the lead up to the Thursday-Friday summit, to be attended by about 140 participants, is the ACTU’s bid for the wages system to allow multi-employer bargaining – that is, bargaining across sectors. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-can-albanese-government-wring-consensus-from-union-business-impasse-over-industrial-relations-189392">Grattan on Friday: Can Albanese government wring consensus from union-business impasse over industrial relations?</a>
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<p>This sectoral bargaining, which could be accompanied by industrial action, would strengthen the hands of unions and employers in winning pay rises. </p>
<p>The government has said it is very interested in the proposal but there has been push back from employers. </p>
<p>Albanese in his speech stresses the end of the summit is not the end of the story. Summit ideas would feed into an Employment White Paper expected to take about a year to complete. </p>
<p>Participants will hope some more immediate initiatives that the government accepts could be included in the October budget.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.aigroup.com.au/news/policies/2022/statement-of-common-interests-between-the-actu-ai-group-acci-and-bca-on-skills--training/">joint statement on skills and training</a>, the ACTU and business groups at the weekend called for the budget to include more funding to reinvigorate the apprenticeship system. </p>
<p>“Investment must increase apprentice wage subsidies, provide incentive completion payments for both employers and apprentices, and payments for mentoring programs for apprentices.” </p>
<p>The groups also called for the Albanese government to work with unions and employers and state and territory governments to “guarantee foundational skills, including digital literacy, for all Australians”, and “support lifelong learning”. </p>
<p>The business groups that signed the joint statement were the Australian Industry Group, the Business Council of Australia and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. </p>
<p>Asked about the union push for multi-employer bargaining. Treasurer Jim Chalmers told Sky: “We don’t kid ourselves that everybody’s got an identical view about it. But if there’s a view about fixing enterprise bargaining, then it should be heard and it should be teased out on the floor at the summit for sure.” </p>
<p>Chalmers said: </p>
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<p>We’re not looking for unanimity. We’re just looking for those areas of broad common ground so that we can move forward together, whether it be on getting wages growing again after a decade of stagnation, whether it’s boosting productivity by investing in our people and their skills, whether it’s dealing with these skills and labour shortages. </p>
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<p>“We’ve been really energised and really enthused by the genuine spirit of collaboration and cooperation that has emerged in the lead up to the Summit.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-inquiry-robodebt-royal-commission-and-the-jobs-summit-189458">The Morrison inquiry, Robodebt royal commission, and the jobs summit</a>
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<p>NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet expressed concern that “it seems to be that the jobs summit to many degrees has been overtaken by the unions”.</p>
<p>On the pandemic, Albanese in his speech spells out the phases the government sees. “We’ve been through the pandemic response. We are in the middle of the recovery. </p>
<p>"And reform will be the key to renewal. From response and recovery, to reform and renewal.” This would be “the guiding focus of government action for the coming years”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189526/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says the biggest outcome he wants from this week’s jobs and skills summit “is the beginning of a new culture of co-operation”Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1894582022-08-26T03:04:17Z2022-08-26T03:04:17ZThe Morrison inquiry, Robodebt royal commission, and the jobs summit<p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and Associate Professor of journalism Dr. Caroline Fisher talk about this week in politics.</p>
<p>They discuss the government’s announcement of a royal commission into Robodebt, and the inquiry into former prime minister Scott Morrison’s power grab, when he was secretly appointed to multiple ministries. </p>
<p>They also canvass the coming jobs and skills summit, where a “broken” industrial relations system and the push by employers for more migrants will be central and contentious issues.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and Associate Professor of journalism Dr. Caroline Fisher talk about this week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1852132022-07-18T03:50:33Z2022-07-18T03:50:33ZThe major political parties have a membership problem. Footy club marketing might offer some solutions<p>A huge story emerging from the 2022 federal election result was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-teal-steal-independent-candidates-rock-the-liberal-vote-183024">grassroots strength of independents</a>, who dislodged both Liberal and Labor in historically “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/tu-le-says-labor-learned-the-hard-way-after-kristina-keneally-loses-safe-seat">safe seats</a>”.</p>
<p>But the woes of the major parties extend beyond election day; they’re also reflected in the terminal trajectory of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/13/party-hardly-why-australias-big-political-parties-are-struggling-to-compete-with-grassroots-campaigns">party membership</a>.</p>
<p>In 2020, the Guardian reported the Australian Labor Party has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/13/party-hardly-why-australias-big-political-parties-are-struggling-to-compete-with-grassroots-campaigns">around 60,000</a> members. The Liberal Party is currently estimated to have around <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-politics-has-changed-forever-it-s-time-for-the-liberal-party-to-do-the-same-20220525-p5aoko.html">40,000 members</a>, down from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/13/party-hardly-why-australias-big-political-parties-are-struggling-to-compete-with-grassroots-campaigns">197,000</a> during the halcyon days of the 1950s.</p>
<p>By comparison, there were eight AFL clubs in 2021 with more members than each of the two major parties. Two have more members than both parties combined.</p>
<p>When factoring in population growth, the rate of Liberal Party membership has plummeted since the 1950s, while AFL club membership has grown roughly eightfold since the 1980s.</p>
<p>So, what can the major parties learn from footy clubs about how to grow community support?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/afl-and-nrl-grand-final-tv-ratings-show-codes-still-rely-on-their-traditional-heartlands-66485">AFL and NRL grand final TV ratings show codes still rely on their traditional heartlands</a>
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<h2>Mixing sport and politics</h2>
<p>Political parties and sport teams are in fact quite conceptually similar.</p>
<p>Both represent a tribe of people who share a common identity, competing against other such tribes in contests bound by formal rules – whether they are elections or matches. </p>
<p>Political parties and sport teams aren’t just about winning (or at least, they shouldn’t be). At their best, they nurture a wide and passionate base of supporters through <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/16184742.2017.1306872?journalCode=resm20">collective identity</a>.</p>
<p>Despite a common purpose, they diverge fundamentally in their approaches to attracting support.</p>
<p>Major political parties engage in what marketers call “<a href="https://www.jois.eu/files/JIS_Vol8_No1_Sonkova_Grabowska.pdf">transactional marketing</a>”; they largely concentrate on obtaining a sale (a vote) at a single moment in time (an election). </p>
<p>Such transactional approaches foster weak attachment to the major political parties outside election times, leaving them vulnerable to shifts in voter preferences.</p>
<p>Sport teams strive for what’s known as “<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jagdish-Sheth/publication/222505265_The_Evolution_of_Relationship_Marketing/links/5a5a5967aca2727d60860ea6/The-Evolution-of-Relationship-Marketing.pdf">relational marketing</a>”; they concentrate on building relationships with fans that nurture attachment and longer-term loyalty. </p>
<p>Fostering such loyalty is vital for sport teams to ride out the bumps that come with <a href="https://www.elgaronline.com/view/edcoll/9781849800051/9781849800051.00040.xml">fluctuating on-field performance</a>.</p>
<p>The value of a relational approach is particularly evident in periods of crisis.</p>
<p>Despite the Essendon Bombers’ drug scandal being dubbed the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/asada-vs-essendon-through-the-haze-and-fog-now-what-39586">blackest day in Australian sport</a>”, the club’s membership tally actually <a href="https://www.afl.com.au/news/81439/record-afl-club-membership-in-2014">increased</a> in the immediate aftermath, as supporters galvanised behind the club.</p>
<p>Of course, treating political parties like sports teams – which fans tend to support through thick and thin – risks encouraging bad policy; a rusted-on Liberal or Labor supporter may find themselves supporting the party even when it releases terrible policies.</p>
<p>There is a similar problem in sport; footy clubs accused of systematic cheating or even institutional racism, tend to retain supporters.</p>
<p>I’m not arguing blind support is ideal – but rather that the success footy clubs have found in growing membership and connecting with communities could offer some lessons for the major political parties.</p>
<h2>3 tenets of sports marketing</h2>
<p>Here are three key lessons the major parties could take from footy clubs.</p>
<p><strong>1. Authentically connect with target communities</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00913367.2019.1588809">Brand authenticity</a> means developing a genuine, natural, honest and real relationship with your constituencies. </p>
<p>The NRL’s South Sydney Rabbitohs launched <a href="https://www.rabbitohs.com.au/community/">Souths Cares in 2006</a> as a community arm with a charter to support disadvantaged and marginalised youth and families, particularly Aboriginal people in the local area. </p>
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<p>The AFL’s North Melbourne similarly launched <a href="https://resources.nmfc.com.au/aflc-nmfc/document/2022/02/04/20af78a9-f99d-444a-b8c2-01eef1ccb706/NM_5602_2022-2024_TheHuddle_Strategy-1-.pdf">The Huddle in 2010</a>, recognising how the region’s particular cultural diversity underpinned its goal of driving social inclusion.</p>
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<p>Such initiatives are authentic because they are grounded in real communities, genuinely address local issues, and extend from a natural alignment between club and community.</p>
<p>This allows football clubs, which have evolved from kitchen table organisations to <a href="http://www.footyindustry.com/?page_id=142500">A$50 million-plus</a> commercial operations, to remain authentically embedded within community.</p>
<p><strong>2. Engage current and prospective supporters 365 days a year</strong></p>
<p>Sport marketers retain a necessary focus on game day. But this is nestled in broader communication and community strategies that aim to achieve year-round engagement.</p>
<p>Non-game days typically represent 95% of the calendar year, so sport clubs employ communications specialists to produce media content beyond the match itself. </p>
<p>This includes player-focused interviews and biographies, match previews and debriefs, coach insights and community visits. </p>
<p>Such content helps fill the vacuum between individual matches or during the off-season, keeping supporters connected to their club.</p>
<p>And while sport clubs retain a focus upon their home games as major commercial events, professional sport clubs also have a broader calendar of less overt community events.</p>
<p>While a typical AFL or NRL club hosts about 12 home games a season, they run at least triple as many community-orientated events – such as school visits or fan days – to foster community engagement. </p>
<p><strong>3. Defining and living an organisational identity</strong></p>
<p>Sport teams are best known by their mascots and colours, but they’re also defined by the values they seek to associate the brand with – for example, family-orientated, pioneering, working-class.</p>
<p>All these elements combine to form a club’s identity.</p>
<p>Well-defined identities can inform decision-making, such as the Sydney Swans’ fabled <a href="https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/769842/the-swan-way">“no dickhead” team recruitment policy</a>.</p>
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<p>Melbourne Football Club’s core values of “<a href="https://resources.melbournefc.com.au/aflc-melb/document/2020/02/17/65c9f292-f5c3-4810-885e-ea8c53a3e2f4/MFC_Strategic-Plan.pdf">trust, respect, unity and excellence</a>” informs their off-field staff recruitment. Club identity also helps fans make sense of why they support a particular team over another.</p>
<p>Where football clubs protect and cultivate their identity, major parties battle a perception they’re all “just as bad as each other” – there’s a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp9899/99RP10">perceived interchangeability</a>.</p>
<p>By better defining their desired <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/our-beliefs">identities</a> with communities outside of elections, major parties would become less reliant on election campaign <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-15/election-2022-facebook-ads-labor-liberal/101067750">advertising spending wars</a> to educate voters. </p>
<p>They’d also be less vulnerable to <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/labor-outspends-liberals-as-it-dials-up-fear-campaign-20220427-p5agih">smear campaigns</a>.</p>
<h2>Rewriting the gameplan</h2>
<p>While Australia’s professional sports teams continue to illustrate their success in engaging communities, our major political parties are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/13/party-hardly-why-australias-big-political-parties-are-struggling-to-compete-with-grassroots-campaigns">struggling</a> to build and retain memberships.</p>
<p>Given the underwhelming performance of major political parties last match day, it is perhaps time they rewrite their game plans with the help of sport marketers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/regardless-of-the-rules-sport-is-fleeing-free-tv-for-pay-and-it-might-be-an-avalanche-154640">Regardless of the rules, sport is fleeing free TV for pay, and it might be an avalanche</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hunter Fujak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While membership of the major political parties has plummeted, footy club membership has soared. So what can the major parties learn from footy clubs about how to grow community support?Hunter Fujak, Lecturer in Sport Management, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837242022-05-25T06:18:03Z2022-05-25T06:18:03ZEden-Monaro and Gippsland are next-door neighbours: why is one seat safe and the other marginal?<p>The recent federal election saw some close calls but few surprises in the regions, where wild electoral swings are rare. </p>
<p>But we should look closer at two regional seats that straddle the NSW/Victorian border: Eden-Monaro and Gippsland. Despite their geographic proximity, these two seats repeatedly return very different results.</p>
<p>Gippsland shows the risk for Labor of never seriously contesting a “safe” Nationals seat, while the example of Eden-Monaro shows it’s possible for Labor to win regional seats if enough resources and time are put in over the long term.</p>
<h2>A bellwether seat and a ‘quiet’ regional</h2>
<p>The New South Wales seat of Eden-Monaro takes in the far south coast, the Monaro region, and the town of Queanbeyan bordering the ACT.</p>
<p>It’s widely regarded as <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajph.12273">a bellwether seat</a> because it is usually held by whichever party wins government. This election, sitting Labor member <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-117.htm">Kristy McBain was returned</a>, with her primary vote up 4.4% and her two-party-preferred vote up by 7.8% to 58.7%.</p>
<p>The neighbouring seat of Gippsland, by contrast, is the typical"quiet" regional, being held by Nationals and their predecessors for more than 100 years. </p>
<p>Gippsland is next to Eden-Monaro on the southern side of the border from Mallacoota and Cann River in the east, through to the Latrobe Valley towns of Traralgon, Morwell and Churchill in the west. At the 2022 election, <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-213.htm">long-standing Nationals MP</a> Darren Chester increased his primary vote by 1.3% and two-party-preferred vote by 4.4% to 71.1%.</p>
<p>How can we explain such differences across these neighbouring regional electorates? </p>
<h2>Gippsland: home to a long-standing incumbent</h2>
<p>Chester has been the member for Gippsland since 2008. This level of incumbency gives him a great advantage.</p>
<p>Major parties have increasingly run targeted seat campaigns funnelling resources and volunteers into metropolitan marginals. In other words, marginal city seats get all the love.</p>
<p>This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Safe seats are not contested and the incumbent is easily returned, often with an increased majority. This makes future efforts even less likely.</p>
<p>The last major campaign that saw a federal Labor leader visit the seat of Gippsland was Kevin Rudd’s visit before the Gippsland by-election in June 2008. At that time the seat was still within striking distance for Labor with only a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/gipp.htm">5.9% swing needed</a>.</p>
<h2>Eden-Monaro: a short drive from parliament</h2>
<p>Eden-Monaro by contrast has a high profile and national standing. Parties want to win it, <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/210134/1/b11189010_Rawson_and_Holtzinger.pdf">academics have often studied it</a> and senior politicians are regular visitors.</p>
<p>Proximity to Canberra is a key factor: Eden-Monaro is just a short drive from parliament house.</p>
<p>In the early stages of Anthony Albanese’s leadership, he staked his reputation as a new opposition leader on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/05/labors-kristy-mcbain-claims-victory-in-eden-monaro-byelection">a “captain’s pick” in Eden-Monaro</a> – former Bega Valley Shire Mayor Kristy McBain.</p>
<p>The strategy paid off. McBain won a narrow victory at the July 2020 by-election.</p>
<p>Drilling down into specific booth votes in Eden-Monaro reveals further important differences.</p>
<p>Both Queanbeyan and the Latrobe Valley towns have a bloc of Labor voters. But while Labor wins <em>decisively</em> in most Queanbeyan booths, it <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-213.htm">barely outpolls the Nationals</a> in the Valley, and in some cases comes in second. This is likely due to the privatisation and de-industrialisation in the energy sector, which affects jobs in that area.</p>
<p>Both electorates have a small though committed band of Greens who secure 6% to 10% of the vote, and another 10% goes to minor parties such as the United Australia Party and One Nation. But Labor’s capacity to remain competitive in the small rural towns of Eden-Monaro stands out.</p>
<p>Labor polled 43% of the primary vote at <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-117.htm">Bombala</a> in the southern portion of Eden-Monaro, beating the main Liberal rival at 38%.</p>
<p>Just two hour’s drive south in Orbost, in the Gippsland electorate, Labor polled less than 16% of the primary vote. The incumbent <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-213.htm">Nationals won 58%</a>.</p>
<p>This strong Labor vote in the small towns of Eden-Monaro hint at the continuation of a deeper tradition, which equated rural working people with the Labor interest. </p>
<p>This tradition is alive and well in Eden-Monaro, as former Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/02/scott-morrison-abused-by-bushfire-victims-in-nsw-town-of-cobargo">poor 2020 reception</a> in fire-ravaged Cobargo showed. (Incidentally, Cobargo returned a Labor vote of 38%, beating the main Liberal <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-117.htm">challenger at 29%</a>.) </p>
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<h2>A tale of two electorates</h2>
<p>So small town Eden-Monaro votes Labor while small town Gippsland votes National – even though they’re so geographically close. Why?</p>
<p>Incumbency in Gippsland has enabled the Nationals to oust Labor as the main party of small business owners and small town working class families. </p>
<p>Fewer resources and fewer high profile visits have shaped a long tradition of Labor underperformance, while the Nationals are buoyed and replenished by regular electoral success. </p>
<p>Chester’s performance in the lower house undoubtedly assists the state-wide Senate vote helping the Coalition secure at least two Senate quotas. </p>
<p>By not seriously contesting the safe regionals, Labor worsens its declining primary vote. </p>
<p>But the example of Eden-Monaro however shows this is not necessarily the case, and that a well resourced campaign over many elections could turn an otherwise safe Nationals seat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik Eklund's partner was the Labor candidate for Gippsland at the 2019 federal election, and he worked as a volunteer on her campaign.</span></em></p>Two regional seats that straddle the NSW/Victorian border, Eden-Monaro and Gippsland, are geographically close. But these seats repeatedly return very different election results.Erik Eklund, Professor of History, Federation University AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1827702022-05-18T21:00:52Z2022-05-18T21:00:52Z‘A new climate politics’: the 47th parliament must be a contest of ideas for a hotter, low-carbon Australia<p>Climate change and reducing emissions has figured little in the 2022 federal election campaign. But after many years of inadequate national climate policy, the need for sensible, long-term measures is now dire. </p>
<p>The first task of the government in Australia’s 47th parliament must be to increase the national emissions target for 2030. But this is just the first step. Australia urgently needs a proper policy framework to get the nation on a lower emissions path – systematically and for the long term. </p>
<p>A long to-do list on climate policy awaits the new government and those that follow. The issues before us are too difficult, too important and too pressing to abandon them to political point-scoring or ideological zealotry.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="figure in front of burning house" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463538/original/file-20220517-18-flr31u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The climate change issues before us are too great for political point-scoring.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>The to-do list</h2>
<p>Years of climate policy inaction has left plenty of <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-09/78_2021_jotzo_mckibbin_0.pdf">low-hanging fruit</a> ready for the next government to harvest. </p>
<p>On Australia’s emissions reduction out to 2030, the Coalition already expects to do better than the existing 26-28% target. If returned to government, the Coalition could formally raise the target – but presumably there would be no appetite to raise it by much.</p>
<p>Labor has pledged 43% emissions reduction by 2030 – a target, like the Coalition, based on 2005 emissions levels. But that still falls short of the <a href="https://www.bca.com.au/achieving_net_zero_with_more_jobs_and_stronger_regions">46-50%</a> cut urged by the Business Council of Australia, and is far less that the pledges of many other developed countries. </p>
<p>A meaningful target is needed to bolster confidence to low-carbon investors and signal to our international peers that we’re playing our part. </p>
<p>The next government needs to ensure continued private investment for new renewable energy generation, and help bring power infrastructure online quickly and affordably. That means meaningful reform in the national electricity market and working constructively with the states.</p>
<p>And however much it may go against political instinct, the next government must face up to the coal industry’s coming decline. It will need to manage coal plant closures without delaying the renewables transition, and plan for the inevitable fall in export demand for coal and later, gas. </p>
<p>Economies in regions such as central Queensland and the Hunter Valley in New South Wales will change. The federal government has a role in helping prepare for this, again in collaboration with the states.</p>
<p>Importantly, the next federal government must push Australia’s industrial sector to get more energy efficient and shift to renewables. That will keep energy-intensive industries globally competitive in the long term. </p>
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<img alt="two workers walk past furnace" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463540/original/file-20220517-20-f3d0sc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia’s industry must cut its emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Munoz/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Making the existing “safeguards mechanism” effective is the obvious way to start. It should become a “<a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/CCARRP/CCA_CFIStudyPublicReportChapter2.pdf">baseline and credit</a>” scheme covering all medium and large industrial polluters, with financial penalties for being above an emissions threshold and financial incentives for being below. </p>
<p>This would create a quasi-carbon price that can later be the stepping stone to a comprehensive carbon pricing scheme. Carbon taxes and emissions trading are widespread elsewhere in the world and a natural part of a comprehensive climate policy package.</p>
<p>The next government must help ensure the transition to electric cars, trucks and trains is smooth, speedy and fair – including through <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/uploads/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-12/burke_and_jotzo_-_car_tax_reform_-_afr_2dec2020.pdf">road tax reform</a>. And it should adjust policy and regulation to further decentralise our energy system, including having electric cars providing power to the grid when and where needed. </p>
<p>In the building sector, we need meaningful national energy efficiency standards, low-carbon construction requirements and a push away from gas for heating.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-mr-morrison-minority-government-need-not-create-chaos-it-might-finally-drag-australia-to-a-responsible-climate-policy-181706">No, Mr Morrison. Minority government need not create 'chaos' – it might finally drag Australia to a responsible climate policy</a>
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<p>But what about the cost? Many politicians have created fear by claiming strong climate action means economic doom. In reality, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-says-the-tools-to-stop-catastrophic-climate-change-are-in-our-hands-heres-how-to-use-them-179654">many carbon-saving investments pay for themselves</a> over time in the form of lower energy costs. Others cost extra but bring benefits such as cleaner air and more secure energy supplies. </p>
<p>The decline of fossil fuel exports will hurt Australia economically, but this is out of our hands. The task here is to foster economic diversification, which should be central in national industry policy. </p>
<p>Beyond the question of lower emissions, it’s high time the federal government got serious about adapting to climate damage that’s already happening and will worsen.</p>
<p>The task for the next government, then, is to help make happen the large investments that will safeguards Australia’s future. This message should be attractive to politicians who want to be seen as leaders.</p>
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<img alt="girl in crowd at carbon tax protest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463541/original/file-20220517-18-tfc6v5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Politicians have claimed climate action will bring economic doom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Making it happen</h2>
<p>There is also more work to do to deeply understand the pathways to a cleaner economy in Australia, the problems we face and the opportunities that can be ours. </p>
<p>As just one example, properly funded science will help Australian agriculture progress towards the net-zero emissions goal. It would also help the sector better understand how to respond to challenges such as changed growing conditions and more frequent or severe floods and bushfires.</p>
<p>As a nation, we must also get serious about identifying where and how Australia could become a major player in the energy and commodity industries of a low-carbon world. Australia could be a major international supplier of <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-really-address-climate-change-australia-could-make-27-times-as-much-electricity-and-make-it-renewable-179311">clean energy and zero-carbon commodities</a>. </p>
<p>To get there requires building trust and bringing everyone along.</p>
<h2>Net-zero as a rallying point</h2>
<p>So where to begin for the next government? A good start would be convening an inclusive process towards a proper, <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-03/ccep2102_-_lts_best_practice_0.pdf">long-term strategy</a> for Australia to reduce its emissions.</p>
<p>The goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 is a rare point of general agreement on climate policy – both across the political spectrum and among the main lobby groups. </p>
<p>But how might we get there? What will it mean for different industries and regions? Where do the economic upsides lie? What are the social pressure points? Finding answers to these questions should be the basis for a real national conversation – one that includes businesses, unions, communities, non-government organisations, the research sector and the media. </p>
<p>Such a process would be very different from that behind the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-long-term-emissions-reduction-plan">document</a> accompanying the Coalition government’s net-zero announcement late last year. Whoever is in government next has the chance to run an inclusive process that fully maps out the options and implications of net-zero. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-attends-pivotal-global-climate-talks-today-bringing-a-weak-plan-that-leaves-australia-exposed-170842">Scott Morrison attends pivotal global climate talks today, bringing a weak plan that leaves Australia exposed</a>
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<img alt="wind farm on green hills" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463543/original/file-20220517-24-12sy09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia needs a proper net-zero strategy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
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<h2>A new politics</h2>
<p>Whether the next government likes it or not, it will have to deal with climate policy. Obviously, the election outcome will be the key determinant for how far the next government is willing to go.</p>
<p>A Labor government would clearly plan to do more than a returned Coalition government. Either is likely to do more if governing in a parliamentary minority and supported by pro-climate independents. </p>
<p>Yet to get strong, wholehearted action at federal level would require a sea change in politics that presently is not on the cards. The climate wars of yesteryear are the root problem. </p>
<p>At some point this decade, however, Australia needs a complete political reset on climate policy. In a world that needs to act <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-finds-the-world-has-its-best-chance-yet-to-slash-emissions-if-it-seizes-the-opportunity-179653">urgently and deeply</a> on climate change, the political contest should be over how best to do much more. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-hits-low-income-earners-harder-and-poor-housing-in-hotter-cities-is-a-disastrous-combination-180960">Climate change hits low-income earners harder – and poor housing in hotter cities is a disastrous combination</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo does not have affiliations or funding sources that are relevant, or likely to be perceived to be relevant, to the subject of this article.</span></em></p>The issues before us are too difficult, too important and too pressing to abandon them to political point-scoring or ideological zealotry.Frank Jotzo, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy and Head of Energy, Institute for Climate Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1822922022-05-10T20:01:34Z2022-05-10T20:01:34ZElection humour 2022: can the major parties win votes with a funny marmot or a joke about Star Wars?<p>The 2022 election campaign seems longer than Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow. And there is still ten days to go. But that does not mean the whole thing is without lighter moments.</p>
<p>Humour is an important and inescapable tool of persuasion used by politicians, parties and their allies during election campaigns. </p>
<p>What are we seeing in 2022?</p>
<p>Neither Prime Minister Scott Morrison or Labor leader Anthony Albanese are renowned as great wits, in contrast to Gough Whitlam and other former prime ministers who thrived in more freewheeling times. </p>
<p>Instead, humour is now a campaign function that can be supplied by party or non-party specialists – not necessarily comedy specialists – as part of heavily managed campaigns. </p>
<h2>The power of a joke</h2>
<p>Humour is a funny thing because of its many ways, receptions and uses. It is not always light-hearted and inoffensive, as fans of <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/general-news/transcript-ricky-gervais-golden-globes-2020-opening-monologue-1266516/">Ricky Gervais</a> or <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/gusalexiou/2022/03/30/chris-rocks-oscars-alopecia-jibe--when-do-jokes-about-body-difference-stop-being-funny/?sh=26e2d1cc4f95">Chris Rock</a> know. </p>
<p>Many of us think celebrities deserve such ridicule, just as we think politicians deserve mockery laced with malice or <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233441585_The_pleasures_of_political_humour_in_Australian_demOuocracy">schadenfreude</a>. Our tradition of stereotyping politicians as corrupt began 300 years ago with satirists such as Jonathan Swift, the writer of Gulliver’s Travels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/funny-that-why-humour-is-a-hit-and-miss-affair-on-the-election-campaign-trail-116513">Funny, that: why humour is a hit-and-miss affair on the election campaign trail</a>
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<p>Humour is not always subversive in politics, although comedians like Australia’s Charlie Pickering think their work <a href="https://www.broadsheet.com.au/sydney/entertainment/article/charlie-pickering-shelf-stacking-tv-studios#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CThere's%20an%20architecture%20behind%20power,holds%20them%20there%20is%20useful.%E2%80%9D">speaks</a> “truth to power”. After all, it can be used to reinforce community values or <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Laughter_and_Ridicule/OUJ3k2jPSbUC?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=michael+billig+humour+bergson+laughter+is+the+mechanism+of+social+discipline&pg=PA128&printsec=frontcover">discipline</a> those who step outside social conventions, for instance in the struggle against <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/topics/voices/culture/article/2017/02/21/why-you-should-laugh-racism">racism</a>.</p>
<h2>Humour as a campaign tool</h2>
<p>Humour can also be a positive campaign tool, enhancing the credibility of politicians, even if by association. </p>
<p>Independent candidate Zoe Daniel <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/grace-tame-and-zoe-daniel-bring-the-laughs-20220411-p5acmx.html">appeared</a> in a session of the recent Melbourne Comedy Festival with advocate Grace Tame and comedian and <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/03/23/dan-ilic-its-not-a-race-election/">anti-fossil fuel campaigner</a> Dan Ilic. Apart from looking like a good sport she also <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/grace-tame-mocks-scomo-in-first-gig-at-melbourne-comedy-festival/news-story/dedb047becbc952fc5267137f6eec499">benefited</a> from their mockery of her Liberal opponent in Goldstein, Tim Wilson, and Morrison. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Early voting station in Queensland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462159/original/file-20220510-23-hhke5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">With the start of early voting, the scramble for votes has intensified.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Clearly, humour can be used by a party as a negative tool when getting an audience to laugh at an opponent and diminish their reputation. </p>
<p>To these ends, memes have been important tools since the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/how-the-parties-are-using-memes-to-get-your-vote-this-election/7487426">2016</a> federal election, repurposing culture with ironic humour in order to reach disengaged voters. </p>
<p>This continued in 2019 with the Liberals aiming to dominate the digital conflict with lots of posts. However, this means quantity can come at the expense of humorous quality. </p>
<h2>The 2022 campaign</h2>
<p>This time, the Liberals seem to replaying their success of three years ago with humour, focusing their efforts on Facebook (aimed at all ages) and, to a lesser extent, Instagram but not Twitter.</p>
<p>Since the start of the election campaign on April 10, the Liberals have had a clear lead in Facebook numbers. The federal Liberals have 1.1 million followers and had 1.69 million interactions and 1.96 million video views compared to Labor with 509,000, 1.21 million and 1.21 million. </p>
<p>But the Liberals have declined from a big start and Labor has caught up on average number of daily posts and getting better interaction rates. </p>
<p>Liberal humour hasn’t always garnered great success because of the strategy of quantity over quality. This includes a mock poster for “a new series by Flip-flop-flix”.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FLiberalPartyAustralia%2Fposts%2F545269506957380&show_text=true&width=500" width="100%" height="590" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
<p>According to the Crowdtangle research tool, it only got 1.3 times less interactions than the average comparable Liberal post. Similar under-performing videos include the “Chronicles of Marles” at -1.7 times and a Star Wars <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=959885104700792">themed post</a> at -3.2 times with only 1,800 views. </p>
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?height=476&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FLiberalPartyAustralia%2Fvideos%2F554703826274046%2F&show_text=false&width=476&t=0" width="100%" height="500px" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
<p>The Liberal’s <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044230069311/posts/544704410347223">007 meme</a> - “flip-flopped, not stirred” - fared modestly well according to Crowdtangle, with 6.3 times the average (5,300 reactions, 1,000 comments and 1,000 shares), according to the Facebook ad library. A <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044230069311/posts/531406828343648">Gump meme</a>, received a score of 5.7 times and more than 7,000 interactions.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FLiberalPartyAustralia%2Fposts%2F531406828343648&show_text=true&width=500" width="100%" height="590" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
<p>Some Liberal videos have also done modestly well. One that <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044230069311/posts/544125917071739">edited Albanese</a> into an appearance before Judge Judy received about 23,500 views. This falls short of their standard “serious” posts criticising Albanese, such as two focusing on his failure to remember the unemployment rate which got <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044230069311/posts/536574714493526">160,000</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044230069311/posts/536769327807398">80,000</a> views, according to Crowdtangle. </p>
<h2>Labor jokes</h2>
<p>Labor has been focusing its efforts more on Instagram and on TikTok, where we know younger voters spend most of their time. Only 23% of under <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf">35s</a> voted for the Coalition in 2019, so this is an important demographic for the ALP. </p>
<p>On TikTok, Labor has a huge lead, with 76,400 followers, 1.6 million likes and 3.4 million views since April 10. This is compared to the Greens with 15,000, 206,800 and 1.47 million respectively and the Liberal Party with 1,900, 22,700 and 499,000. </p>
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Falpspicymemes%2Fposts%2F360044482824297&show_text=true&width=500" width="100%" height="396" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
<p>Labor has been using its channel to poke fun at Morrison’s “raw” <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@australianlabor/video/7094863348524731649?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1&lang=en">chicken curry</a> and has made use of <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@australianlabor/video/7094500613265820929?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1&lang=en">well-known marmot footage</a> to joke about the absence of disgraced education minister Alan Tudge during the campaign. </p>
<p>One Labor post with about 157,000 views depicts Morrison as a brute from the video game <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@australianlabor/video/7091467953706700034?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1&lang=en">Halo</a> bashing young people and making housing unaffordable, playing on their <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/young-voters-believe-homeownership-out-of-reach-name-cost-of-living-top-priority-20220419-p5aeih.html">fears</a> about the issue. </p>
<p>Another Labor <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@australianlabor/video/7093682627147746561?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1">TikTok</a> with about 23,000 views splices a blinking Morrison replying, “It’s not my job” to Princess Leia from Star Wars begging for help. </p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-691" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/691/d9eb5fd0f3051ec5d68d6b69966d36fe88823d06/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Other players</h2>
<p>Non-party players are also helping to fight the election with humour. </p>
<p>Controversial political commentator and comedian Jordan Shanks (also known as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/22/john-barilaro-tells-court-he-felt-broken-after-friendlyjordies-videos-appeared-on-youtube">Friendlyjordies</a>) is not an ALP contractor but is effectively a Labor party satirist in the same fashion that Swift was for the Tories in the 18th century. Shanks openly advocates for <a href="https://www.facebook.com/100044249598356/posts/525632918921690">Labor</a> and has the advantage of being more risque than the party can be. He regularly gets between 150,000 and 500,000 views on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/friendlyjordies/videos">Youtube</a> and on <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@friendlyjordies">Tiktok</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, satirical website Juice Media usually excoriates the “shit-fuckery” of the Coalition in “honest government ads”. The latest instalment has so far earned more than 500,000 views and supports the “not-shit” independents. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Gz4IkzM217U?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>Labor’s internal <a href="https://alp.org.au/media/2043/alp-campaign-review-2019.pdf">review</a> of the 2019 election found the party had dropped behind the Coalition when it came to digital strategy. </p>
<p>But this time, the record seems more mixed when it comes to humour. Of course, we await post-election analysis, but it is clear both parties view humour as a serious way of undermining their opponents. </p>
<p>Yet, there is no assurance that a catchy meme or a clever pop culture reference will convert voters to either party’s policies or leaders. It is possible they can be preaching to the converted, which is fine for bolstering political identity but not for boosting votes among the uncommitted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182292/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Rolfe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Humour is now part of the modern election campaign. Facebook and TikTok have become joke battlegrounds.Mark Rolfe, Honorary lecturer, School of Social Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825132022-05-05T19:59:50Z2022-05-05T19:59:50ZScorched dystopia or liveable planet? Here’s where the climate policies of our political hopefuls will take us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461493/original/file-20220505-1494-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5551%2C3692&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Mariuz/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal election campaign takes place against a background of flooding on Australia’s east coast, where some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/01/nsw-flood-victims-kicked-out-of-caravan-parks-to-make-way-for-tourists">residents</a> remain in temporary accommodation a month after the disaster. It’s just the latest reminder Australia is set to become a poster child for climate change harms.</p>
<p>Australia has warmed about <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Australasia.pdf">1.4°C since 1910</a>. With it <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_Australasia.pdf">has come</a> extreme heat, bushfires, floods, drought and now, a sixth <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/25/we-need-action-immediately-great-barrier-reef-authority-confirms-sixth-mass-coral-bleaching-event">huge bleaching event</a> on the Great Barrier Reef. </p>
<p>Yet meaningful climate policy debate has largely been absent from this election campaign. So Climate Analytics, a research organisation I lead, has weighed up the policies of the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and the “teal” independents. </p>
<p>We <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2022/australian-election-2022-political-party-and-independent-climate-goals-analysis/">analysed</a> the global warming implications of each party’s or candidate’s target for 2030. </p>
<p>As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/resources/press/press-release">warns</a>, this timeframe is crucial if the world is to stay below the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Dramatic action by 2030 is also vital to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 or earlier.</p>
<p>Alarmingly, the Coalition’s climate policy is consistent with a very dangerous 3°C of global warming. Labor’s policy is slightly better, but only policies by the Greens and the “teals” are consistent with keeping global warming at or below 1.5°C.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-687" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/687/a89f5238821e47b288052a287fbfaa98d2581d3d/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The Coalition</h2>
<p>The Morrison government is pursing 26-28% emissions reduction by 2030, based on 2005 levels. If all other national governments took a similar level of action, Earth would reach at least 3°C of warming, bordering on 4°C, our analysis shows. </p>
<p>That would mean the total destruction of all tropical reefs including Ningaloo and the Great Barrier Reef. And intense heatwaves over land that currently occur about once a decade could happen almost every other year.</p>
<p>At the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow last year, the Morrison government famously refused to increase its 2030 commitments. But the final pact from the meeting, which Australia signed, requires that by November this year, governments will strengthen their 2030 targets to align with the 1.5°C goal.</p>
<p>Australia is under strong international pressure to meet this obligation, or face further <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/stupid-investment-un-chief-slams-coal-and-australia-in-extraordinary-climate-speech/">global condemnation</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man in suit shakes hands with person in crowd" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461491/original/file-20220505-15-yssztk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Morrison government’s climate policies are consistent with global warming that would destroy the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Labor</h2>
<p>Labor’s target of a 43% emissions cut by 2030, from 2005 levels, is in line with 2°C of global warming. That means it’s not consistent with the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Under 2°C of warming, extreme heat events that currently happen once a decade could occur about every three to four years. And they would reach maximum temperatures <a href="https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch">about 1.7°C hotter</a> than heatwaves in recent decades. </p>
<p>Should Earth overshoot 1.5°C warming and perhaps reach 2°C, some suggest this may be temporary and temperatures could be brought back down. This would require technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But such technologies are <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/media/temperature-overshoots_ar6.pdf">uncertain</a> and come with risks. </p>
<p>And the IPCC’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">recent report</a> warned even if 1.5°C warming is exceeded temporarily, severe and potentially irreversible damage would result. The total loss of the Great Barrier Reef is just one example.</p>
<p>Under 2°C of warming the most extreme heat events that occurred once in a decade in recent times could occur about every three to four years. The heatwaves would also reach a maximum temperature 1.7°C hotter than those in recent decades.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two men stand in front of signs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461492/original/file-20220505-15-nbfd4t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor’s climate policy is not consistent with the Paris Agreement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Teal’ independents</h2>
<p>The “teals” are a group of pro-climate independent candidates.</p>
<p>Most prominent is Warringah MP Zali Steggall, whose climate change <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6617">bill</a> proposes a 2030 target of 60% below 2005 levels. Most climate policies of the “teals” are generally in line with the Steggall bill.</p>
<p>The target is also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/26/business-council-of-australia-backs-zali-steggalls-climate-change-bill-for-2050-net-zero-target">supported by industry</a>. </p>
<p>We find this target consistent with 1.5°C of warming, and so compatible with the Paris Agreement. However, it’s at the upper end of the emission levels consistent with the 1.5°C pathway. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-teal-independents-are-seeking-liberal-voters-and-spooking-liberal-mps-182133">Why teal independents are seeking Liberal voters and spooking Liberal MPs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="smartly-dressed woman with red background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461494/original/file-20220505-26-ypyak1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zali Steggall’s climate policy is consistent with 1.5°C of warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca Di Marchi/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Greens</h2>
<p>Of all the climate policies on the table this election, the Greens target of a 74% cut by 2030, based on 2005 levels, is most comfortably consistent with keeping warming below 1.5°C.</p>
<p>That level of warming would still cause damage to Earth’s natural systems and our way of life. But it would avert significant devastation – for example, allowing parts of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-25/ningaloo-reef-high-risk-of-coral-bleaching-from-climate-change/100935764">Ningaloo</a> and <a href="https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004">Great Barrier</a> reefs to survive. </p>
<p>Under 1.5°C global warming, the most <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf">extreme heat events</a> that presently occur once a decade could be limited to about every five to six years. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-show-a-jump-in-the-greens-vote-but-its-real-path-to-power-lies-in-reconciling-with-labor-181705">Polls show a jump in the Greens vote – but its real path to power lies in reconciling with Labor</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The land sector problem</h2>
<p>Our calculations above do not paint a rosy picture. But they are, in fact, optimistic.</p>
<p>That’s because they include emission reductions from the land and forestry sector through such activities as tree planting and maintaining native vegetation. These so-called carbon sinks were recently described by a key insider as a “<a href="https://law.anu.edu.au/sites/all/files/what_the_beare_and_chambers_report_really_found_and_a_critique_of_its_method_16_march_2022.pdf">fraud</a>”.</p>
<p>If the land and forest sector is excluded from the analysis, the various emissions reduction targets fall considerably: to between 11% and 13% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor, 50% for the teals and 67% for the Greens. </p>
<p>What’s more, even warming limited to 1.5°C will <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_Chapter11.pdf">reduce</a> the capacity of the land sector to remove and store carbon.</p>
<h2>Over to you</h2>
<p>The scientific consensus is <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">clear</a>. Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest and plummet thereafter, to limit global warming to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>Unless policies are substantially strengthened, Earth is set to hit 1.5°C warming in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/warming">2030s</a>, and a future of at least 3°C warming awaits.</p>
<p>The onus is on the next parliament to protect Australians from climate catastrophe. On May 21, Australian voters have a chance to send a clear message about the kind of world we want to leave for future generations.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/seriously-ugly-heres-how-australia-will-look-if-the-world-heats-by-3-c-this-century-157875">Seriously ugly: here's how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare receives funding from the European Climate Foundation, Climate Works Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropy, and Solutions for Climate, a project of Climate Action Network Australia.</span></em></p>The Coalition’s climate policy is consistent with a very dangerous 3°C of global warming. But one party is comfortably consistent with keeping warming at safe levels.Bill Hare, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1816012022-05-03T18:58:09Z2022-05-03T18:58:09ZCentre-left parties worldwide have struggled to reinvent themselves – what kind of ALP is fighting this election?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460889/original/file-20220503-14-o2b2fh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3964%2C1856&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Keir Starmer, Anthony Albanese and Jacinda Ardern.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images Europe, Lukas Coch/ AAP Image, and Robert Kitchin/Pool Photo via AP </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With due caution about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-to-read-political-polls-and-why-we-can-expect-a-lot-of-drama-on-election-night-181477">(in)accuracy of opinion polls</a>, Australian voters may bring in a Labor government on May 21. If so, what kind of government would they get?</p>
<p>One obstacle to answering this is that the Australian Labor Party (ALP) has been out of office for so long, having lost three elections since 2013. And it’s difficult to find comparable case studies, as the <a href="https://policy.bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/why-the-left-loses">social-democratic left</a> has generally not performed well in various elections over the past decade or more. </p>
<p>British Labour, for example, has lost four elections since 2010, although it’s showing signs of revival with Keir Starmer at the helm.</p>
<p>And the tide may be turning in the left’s favour. New Zealand Labour formed a coalition government after the 2017 election and then, following an election dominated by COVID-19 in 2020, hit a record high of 50% and won a single-party majority (virtually unheard of under the proportional MMP system).</p>
<p>And in Germany, social democrat Olaf Scholz now leads a coalition as federal chancellor following last year’s election.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460668/original/file-20220501-17-pm0014.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">ALP Leader Anthony Albanese and Liberal prime minister Scott Morrison at the first leaders’ debate of the 2022 federal election in April.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
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<h2>Three brands of labour</h2>
<p>The three labour parties (British, Australian and New Zealand) have converged around some key values and ideas, indicating how the ALP might govern. There’s always likely to be a gap between rhetoric and actual policy implementation, but examination of leaders’ speeches gives some evidence about where they’re heading. </p>
<p>Our comparative analysis of speeches by the three party leaders indicates a “thin” labourism in relation to the parties’ social-democratic traditions.</p>
<p>ALP leader Anthony Albanese’s key speeches since becoming leader in 2019 show he’s big on economic growth, with an emphasis on social mobility (“aspiration”), fairness and security. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/could-the-2022-election-result-in-a-hung-parliament-history-shows-australians-have-nothing-to-fear-from-it-181484">Could the 2022 election result in a hung parliament? History shows Australians have nothing to fear from it</a>
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<p>Along with talk of jobs and wages – essential themes for any politician wishing to appeal to working people – there’s reference to nation-building and infrastructure. These themes are reflected in the approach being taken by <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-labor-wins-the-election-he-is-set-to-become-the-next-federal-treasurer-so-who-is-jim-chalmers-180138">shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers</a>.</p>
<p>Albanese, Starmer and New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern are alike in that their speeches use the words “economy”, “growth” and “jobs” more than any others – although Ardern refers to the environment noticeably more frequently than the other two. </p>
<p>Like Starmer and Ardern, Albanese downplays traditional social-democratic vocabulary like “progressive”, “dignity”, “solidarity” and “equality”. These leaders also lack the enthusiasm of the third-way “soft neoliberals” who governed during an era of deregulation and downsizing and yet claimed they could “modernise” social democracy, as popularised by the UK’s former prime minister Tony Blair. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1520146437434134529"}"></div></p>
<h2>Safe centrism</h2>
<p>Today’s labour leaders do, however, steer a “safe” centrist path between being pro-growth (or at least not anti-business) and seeking gains for low- and middle-income earners. </p>
<p>They normally avoid explicit talk of class, redistribution and trade unions. None of them critiques the market economy – they just want it to be fairer. Once in office, the gains for workers from a labour government will be incremental, not transformational.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-do-mainstream-media-matter-in-an-election-campaign-spoiler-more-than-you-might-think-180780">How much do mainstream media matter in an election campaign? (Spoiler: more than you might think)</a>
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<p>One can see this in New Zealand. The pandemic has meant a major detour, but Ardern hasn’t made great progress towards her avowed social goals: getting everyone into <a href="https://www.massey.ac.nz/massey/fms/Colleges/College%20of%20Business/School%20of%20Economics%20&%20Finance/research-outputs/mureau/home-affordability/Home%20Affordability%20Report%20Q4%202021.pdf?FA6552978ED20FEB5522D94A5D1A7864">an affordable home</a> and reducing <a href="https://www.cpag.org.nz/what-the-annual-child-poverty-stats-tell/">child poverty</a>. The gains she can cite are incremental at best. </p>
<p>Under Albanese, the ALP removed some politically troublesome tax policies which had originally been intended to deliver greater fairness. Labor reversed its 2019 policy positions on negative gearing, capital gains tax and franking credits. Further, Albanese announced <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-has-dropped-labors-pledge-to-boost-jobseeker-with-unemployment-low-is-that-actually-fair-enough-181256">no lift in the unemployment benefit</a> under Labor, and also signed up to the Coalition’s stage three tax cuts – in effect removing an entire income tax bracket.</p>
<p>In the campaign he presents himself as professional, “<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-labor-can-win-the-2022-election-179750">reasonable</a>” and a safe pair of hands – but above all, not radical. There have been some “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-22/albanese-covid-19-diagnosis-upends-labor-campaign/101007156">gaffes and stumbles</a>” and then a positive COVID test, but the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-leads-polling-at-the-campaign-s-halfway-mark-20220501-p5ahiv.html">latest polls</a> will be reassuring.</p>
<h2>A thin ideological platform</h2>
<p>One impact of the pandemic has been a return of strong governmental action backed by borrowing. At the state level, premiers (notably Labor premiers) have gained credit for taking more decisive (or less indecisive) actions to prevent spread of the disease, reduce pressures on hospitals and save lives. </p>
<p>New Zealand Labour’s exemplary performance in disease control showed how a government can be rewarded electorally for this – although recent <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election">opinion polls</a> show Ardern’s government could be beaten by a centre-right coalition next year.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-labor-wins-he-is-set-to-become-treasurer-so-who-is-jim-chalmers-180138">If Labor wins, he is set to become treasurer. So who is Jim Chalmers?</a>
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<p>Ardern’s commitment to lift the minimum wage, and Starmer’s and Albanese’s focus on job security exemplify the incremental approach that’s focused on workers but doesn’t want to “frighten the horses” of capitalism.</p>
<p>Labour leaders have to work harder than their centre-right opponents to convince voters they’re not anti-business, that they understand macroeconomic policy and that they won’t get too tax-hungry – and yet also appeal to those for whom “economy” might mean how the next paycheck will cover rent and groceries. </p>
<p>Labour parties now find themselves on a thin ideological platform, anxious not to be an easy target for their pro-business opponents, especially during an election campaign. </p>
<p>An attenuated social-democratic value base is all that’s left now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181601/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anxious not to be easy targets for their pro-business opponents, labour parties everywhere now run on a ‘thin ideological platform’. Anthony Albanese’s ALP is no exception.Rob Manwaring, Associate Professor, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders UniversityCharles Lees, Professor of Government, Flinders UniversityGrant Duncan, Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1809702022-04-22T01:17:49Z2022-04-22T01:17:49ZWill a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458996/original/file-20220421-20-lv6p3h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In May, I wrote that white voters without a university education were increasingly voting for right-wing parties in Australia, the US and the UK. </p>
<p>However, in Australia, this trend is most apparent in regional electorates such as Capricornia in Queensland.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/non-university-educated-white-people-are-deserting-left-leaning-parties-how-can-they-get-them-back-160617">Non-university educated white people are deserting left-leaning parties. How can they get them back?</a>
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<p>At the 2019 federal election, Labor had no trouble retaining traditional urban heartland seats, such as Scullin in Melbourne, Blaxland in Sydney and Spence in Adelaide – as ABC election analyst <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-federal-electoral-pendulum/">Antony Green’s pendulum</a> shows.</p>
<p>It’s possible non-uni whites in big cities such as Melbourne and Sydney have not swung right like those in regional areas owing to more cultural assimilation in cities. Associating with other ethnic groups may mean non-uni whites in cities are less persuaded by anti-immigrant rhetoric than those in regional areas.</p>
<p>Currently, non-uni whites, especially in regional areas, are trending to right-wing parties, while university-educated people are trending to the left. A key question is whether these trends will continue. It’s possible high inflation could reverse this trend among non-uni whites in countries that currently have right-wing governments.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458997/original/file-20220421-15-f5mgn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458997/original/file-20220421-15-f5mgn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458997/original/file-20220421-15-f5mgn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458997/original/file-20220421-15-f5mgn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458997/original/file-20220421-15-f5mgn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458997/original/file-20220421-15-f5mgn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458997/original/file-20220421-15-f5mgn5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Non-uni educated white people in big cities have not swung to the right the way they have in the regions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the trends to the right with regional non-uni whites continue, but urban non-uni whites are not moved, and university-educated voters trend left, then the percentage of the population living in cities becomes important.</p>
<p>I have calculated an urbanisation percentage for four countries based on lists of cities by population. I have used 100,000 people as the minimum required for a city.</p>
<p>In the US, a total of over 97 million people <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population">lived in cities</a> with over 100,000 population at the 2020 Census, but the total <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/08/united-states-adult-population-grew-faster-than-nations-total-population-from-2010-to-2020.html">US population</a> was over 331 million. That’s an urban percentage of just 29% for the US.</p>
<p>In the UK in 2021, 29.8 million people <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/cities/united-kingdom">lived in cities</a> with over 100,000 population, while the UK’s <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/">total population</a> was 68.4 million people. That’s an urban percentage of 44%.</p>
<p>In Canada, 20.9 million people lived in <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table.cfm?Lang=Eng&T=801&SR=1&S=3&O=D&RPP=25&PR=0&CMA=0#tPopDwell">cities with over</a> 100,000 population at the 2016 Census, with a total <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=PR&Code1=01&Geo2=&Code2=&SearchText=Canada&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All&TABID=1&type=0">Canadian population</a> of 35.2 million people. That’s an urban percentage of 60%.</p>
<p>In Australia, 16.0 million people <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Australia_by_population">lived in cities</a> with over 100,000 population at the 2016 Census. I have omitted Central Coast and Sunshine Coast from the population centres as they are not single cities. Australia’s population at the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2071.0main+features22016">2016 Census</a> was 23.4 million, so 68% of Australians lived in urban areas.</p>
<p>You can see the large numbers of urban electorates in Australia compared to regional seats on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-are-the-most-marginal-seats-and-who-might-win-them-179845">electoral maps article</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/where-are-the-most-marginal-seats-and-who-might-win-them-179845">Where are the most marginal seats, and who might win them?</a>
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<h2>Australian implications from the 2021 Canadian election</h2>
<p>At the September 2021 <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2021/results/">Canadian federal</a> election that used first past the post, the centre-left Liberals won 160 of the 338 seats, the Conservatives 119, the left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc 32, the left-wing New Democrats (NDP) 25 and the Greens two. </p>
<p>The Liberals won 41 more seats than the Conservatives despite losing the national popular vote by 1.1% (Conservatives 33.7%, Liberals 32.6%, NDP 17.8%, Bloc 7.6%). The Bloc ran only in Quebec.</p>
<p>The Liberals easily won the most seats by completely dominating major Canadian cities such as Toronto and Montreal, and also by winning seats in Edmonton and Calgary in the Conservative province of Alberta. You can see this in the CBC results map at the above link.</p>
<p>As Australia is more urbanised than Canada, Labor would win elections easily if they dominated our five mainland capital cities to the extent the Liberals do in Toronto and Montreal in Canada.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458993/original/file-20220421-34130-5yb3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458993/original/file-20220421-34130-5yb3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458993/original/file-20220421-34130-5yb3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458993/original/file-20220421-34130-5yb3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458993/original/file-20220421-34130-5yb3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458993/original/file-20220421-34130-5yb3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458993/original/file-20220421-34130-5yb3c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Labor Party would win elections easily if it dominated urban areas the way the Liberals do in Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/AP/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>To become dominant in cities in the way Canada’s Liberals are, Labor would need to gain the high income seats in Melbourne’s inner east and Sydney’s north shore, which have long been seen as Liberal heartland. If polarisation along education lines becomes greater, this will eventually occur - but not necessarily at the upcoming election. </p>
<p>However, some of those seats are facing a genuine challenge from “teal” independents. Is it in Labor’s best interests for independents to win these seats? Once independents are established as sitting members, they are difficult to dislodge. </p>
<p>If Labor can defeat the Liberals in these seats in the future, it would be frustrating for Labor to have independents occupying them; Labor would prefer its own candidates be elected.</p>
<p>There is evidence Labor has indeed gained with high income voters. In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-and-greens-gain-in-post-budget-newspoll-as-an-ipsos-poll-gives-labor-a-large-lead-180316">March quarter Newspoll</a> breakdowns, Labor held a 55-45 lead among those on $150,000 or more income per year, up from a 53-47 deficit in the December quarter.</p>
<p>But maybe inflation will reverse the Coalition’s gains among non-uni whites, and the current level of education polarisation could stabilise or reduce.</p>
<p>While this exercise could lead to left dominance in Australia, the same logic implies that the right will dominate future elections in the US, where just 29% live in cities of over 100,000 population. </p>
<p>But in the US, many high income people live in “suburbs” outside cities, and swings to Democrats in the suburbs were responsible for Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/12/11/us-2020-election-final-results-bidens-electoral-college-win/">narrow victory in 2020</a>, and the Democrats’ decisive <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections">midterm victory in 2018</a>. </p>
<p>UK Labour already has difficulties owing to the first-past-the-post system, which will probably be increased by the UK’s population demographics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Labor could harness the uni-educated urban vote in Australia the way the Liberals have in Canada, they would more easily win federal elections.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795802022-03-18T09:35:48Z2022-03-18T09:35:48ZView from The Hill: Labor’s treatment of Kimberley Kitching – ‘tough politics’ or ‘bullying’?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453008/original/file-20220318-10615-9969lk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sam Mooy/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The so-called “mean girls” story following the death of Victorian Labor senator Kimberley Kitching, has opened up issues of alleged bad behaviour by very senior figures within the Labor party. </p>
<p>The allegations are serious, and Anthony Albanese and his colleagues were never going to get away with denying them oxygen by pushing them aside, as they hoped. </p>
<p>But the fact the claims and denials are being played out even before Kitching’s funeral takes them into an extraordinary realm. </p>
<p>Although only junior in the parliamentary pecking order, Kitching – who was a close friend and ally of former Labor leader Bill Shorten – made herself a substantial presence in the senate, and a strong voice on issues including China and national security. </p>
<p>Some of her views were more akin to those of the Liberals than to her own side, and she had good friends in the government. </p>
<p>For these and other reasons, she became a square peg in the round Labor hole. She was accused of leaking by Labor’s Senate leadership and frozen out, including being removed from the tactics committee. </p>
<p>From what we know now, she was highly upset by her treatment, but she also fought back, reportedly late last year complaining of bullying by her colleagues to a consultant brought in as part of the effort to clean up Parliament House’s toxic culture. </p>
<p>Earlier, she had complained to deputy Labor leader Richard Marles about how she was being treated. Marles refuses to be drawn, repeatedly saying in a Friday TV interview, “I’m just not going to walk down that path”.</p>
<p>Apart from the pressure she felt under in the parliamentary party, recently Kitching had been stressed by her preselection being up in the air. </p>
<p>Kitching’s friends allege Labor’s Senate leader Penny Wong, her deputy Kristina Keneally and Katy Gallagher, manager of opposition business in the Senate, bullied her. The Australian reported Kitching and her supporters had dubbed these senators “the mean girls”. </p>
<p>Like Albanese, at first the senators refused to engage with the allegations. By Friday, with more information dribbling out, this had become unsustainable. </p>
<p>Wong, Keneally and Gallagher issued a statement saying: “The allegations of bullying are untrue. Other assertions which have been made are similarly inaccurate.” </p>
<p>The statement went on: “Politics is a challenging profession. Contests can be robust and interactions difficult. All of its participants at times act or speak in ways that can impact on others negatively. We have and do reflect on this, as individuals and as leaders.</p>
<p>"It is for this reason Senator Wong wishes to place on record a response to specific claims regarding an exchange in a meeting with Senator Kitching.” </p>
<p>This related to a 2019 discussion in Labor about school children participating in civil disobedience at climate protests. </p>
<p>Kitching’s opposition to this brought the response from Wong who said “if you had children, you might understand why there is a climate emergency.”</p>
<p>In Friday’s statement, Wong said when the incident was publicly reported more than two years ago she had apologised to Kitching. </p>
<p>“Senator Wong understood that apology was accepted. The comments that have been reported do not reflect Senator Wong’s views, as those who know her would understand, and she deeply regrets pain these reports have caused,” the statement said.</p>
<p>While it will seem shocking to many people that all this is playing out even before Kitching’s funeral on Monday, it is also relevant that most of the information and claims being put forward are from Kitching’s friends. </p>
<p>Albanese has denounced the way the Kitching issue has been “politicised”. He defended his senior Senate women, saying “politics is a really tough business”. </p>
<p>The latter observation is something Kitching would have understood extremely well. In the Victorian Labor party over the years she was one of the very tough players herself. </p>
<p>In the context of the battle between government and opposition, the internal Labor claims about how one of its women was treated reduce the scope for Labor to point fingers at the Liberals, who’ve had much trouble themselves on this front.</p>
<p>There have been calls for Albanese to launch an inquiry into the allegations. With the alleged victim dead, it is hard to see what this could achieve. And that’s leaving aside the political considerations, when Labor is weeks from the election. </p>
<p>There’s no doubt Kitching was subjected to harsh treatment by her party. Whether this is judged as “tough politics” or “bullying” is more complex, depending on who is doing the judging. It can be a fine, albeit very important, line between the two.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179580/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whether the late senator’s treatment was unfairly harsh or part of the tough business of politics depends on who you ask – and in public life, the line between the two can be very fine indeed.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1787802022-03-08T11:36:50Z2022-03-08T11:36:50ZElect me and I’ll govern like Bob Hawke: Albanese<p>Anthony Albanese will declare he would govern on the Hawke model of consensus, in a Wednesday economic speech that also directs a strong pitch to business. </p>
<p>“If Labor is successful in the coming federal election, I will take my lead from Bob Hawke and his successor Paul Keating,” Albanese will tell the Australian Financial Review’s business summit. </p>
<p>“I want to bring Australians together to build a better future.” </p>
<p>“After nearly a decade of division and policy inertia under the Liberals and Nationals, collaboration lights our way forward,” the opposition leader says in his speech, released ahead of delivery. </p>
<p>“We must rediscover the spirit of consensus […] Bob Hawke used to bring together governments, trade unions, businesses and civil society around their shared aims of growth and job creation.</p>
<p>"He brokered reforms that yielded benefits for all parties – not just better wages for workers, but stronger profits for businesses, along with the introduction of landmark reforms adding to the social dividend, such as Medicare and universal superannuation.” </p>
<p>Albanese says he and his Labor team have worked over the past three years with business “to hear your concerns, consider your suggestions and establish relationships based on trust and respect. </p>
<p>"Following Bob Hawke’s example, I’ve ensured that all of our economic policies target issues that for government, business and trade unions, are shared interests. Productivity. Growth. Jobs.</p>
<p>"I want to lead a government that works across the community,” Albanese says. “Business needs a government that facilitates private sector investment and activity.” </p>
<p>Without spelling it out directly, Albanese is again highlighting a contrast between his approach and Bill Shorten’s assault on the “top end of town” before the last election. </p>
<p>Albanese says the pandemic “has reminded us there is a role for government intervention in the economy to advance the national interest”. </p>
<p>But Scott Morrison, speaking at the summit on Tuesday, rejected the argument COVID had made a case for a greater government role.</p>
<p>Morrison said Australia’s nearly three decades of uninterrupted growth before the pandemic was unmatched by other advanced economies, in duration and growth rate. </p>
<p>“And that’s why, frankly, I’ve never really been in the, and caught up in the hoopla of the, ‘Build Back Better’ camp, that opportunistically sees the post-COVID recovery as some opportunity to replace our market-based, business-led growth economic system, with a government-centred re-imagination of global capitalism.</p>
<p>"Our model of economic management and business-led economic growth has been world class. </p>
<p>"Capitalism didn’t break. The world got hit by a global pandemic. </p>
<p>"And that is why we have championed in every international forum, especially the G20, for business-led growth strategies,” Morrison said. </p>
<p>The government was now was “normalising” fiscal settings and had “handed the reins of our economy back to the private sector, back for business-led growth,” he said. </p>
<p>Morrison said a Labor government, with the Greens, “would seek to snatch the reins back”. </p>
<p>The PM said the world had become “a more uncertain, less stable and more dangerous place. </p>
<p>"The economic agendas are just not re-heats from the 1990s. We need to address the challenge that exists in this day, in this age.</p>
<p>"And it’s important to stress that strong national security and genuine economic security, they go hand-in-hand. They are two sides of the same coin. And this drives our outlook.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile the Essential poll, released Tuesday, found only 32% thought the federal government deserved to be reelected while 48% said it was time to give someone else a go.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178780/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Anthony Albanese will declare he would govern on the Hawke model of consensus, in a Wednesday economic speech that also directs a strong pitch to business.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1776222022-02-22T05:40:38Z2022-02-22T05:40:38ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Australian politics in an uncertain world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447731/original/file-20220222-23-1fvbko1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C23%2C3952%2C1970&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan now includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.</p>
<p>This week Michelle speaks with politics + society editor Amanda Dunn about the escalating crisis in Ukraine as Russia sends in troops to rebel regions and Australia and other countries are set to announce sanctions. </p>
<p>They also discuss Australia’s relationship with China and what role that will play in the election, after a Chinese warship last week targeted a RAAF plane with a laser. An Essential poll, out this week, gives Labor a clear edge (37-28%) when people were asked, “which party would you trust to build a relationship with China in Australia’s best interests?”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses politics with politics + society editor, Amanda DunnMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1761572022-02-02T04:42:17Z2022-02-02T04:42:17ZLabor’s plan to green the Kurri Kurri gas power plant makes no sense<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443936/original/file-20220202-23-1nehxsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C4800%2C3183&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Is it possible to have your cake and eat it too? Federal Labor is certainly giving it a go by supporting government plans for a fossil gas/diesel peaking plant in the Hunter Valley currently under construction – as long as the plant switches to green hydrogen by 2030. </p>
<p>This is disappointing for three reasons. </p>
<p>One, we don’t actually need the Kurri Kurri power station. It will be a government-built white elephant. </p>
<p>Two, retrofitting it to burn hydrogen would be so expensive as to be unrealistic. </p>
<p>And three, burning hydrogen for power is about the least useful thing you can do with it. </p>
<p>The gas/diesel plant under construction and Labor’s hydrogen proposal came from the realm of politics. It should have stayed there. </p>
<h2>Why did Labor switch its position?</h2>
<p>Labor has long been split on the Kurri Kurri power station, which has been touted as a way to augment dispatchable generation. At first, Labor denounced the Morrison government’s plans, with climate change spokesman Chris Bowen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/19/labor-demands-government-release-business-case-for-600m-hunter-valley-gas-plant">describing it</a> as a “cynical attempt to pick a fight on gas and continue the climate wars, or to reward the major Liberal donor who owns the Kurri Kurri site”.</p>
<p>Now <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-makes-green-hydrogen-pitch-for-government-s-kurri-kurri-gas-plant-20220131-p59spg.html">they say</a> it will create jobs and help provide reliable and affordable electricity. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/government-owned-firms-like-snowy-hydro-can-do-better-than-building-600-million-gas-plants-161180">Government-owned firms like Snowy Hydro can do better than building $600 million gas plants</a>
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<p>As a nod to climate change action, Labor leader Anthony Albanese and climate spokesman Chris Bowen announced the switch with the caveat that Kurri Kurri will use green hydrogen to power 30% of its production when the plant enters service in 2023 and 100% by 2030. Labor says it is prepared to spend up to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/01/labor-pledges-extra-funding-for-snowy-hydro-power-plant-to-make-it-run-on-green-hydrogen">another $700 million</a> on the plant. </p>
<p>It has been <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/alp-s-about-face-on-kurri-kurri-gas-plant-is-pure-politics-20220201-p59syj.html">widely suggested</a> the proposed plant is the government’s way to take advantage of Labor’s internal divide. </p>
<p>When the plant was first proposed for the small town 35 km inland from Newcastle, Energy Security Board chair Kerry Schott <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/30/australian-energy-board-chair-says-gas-fired-power-plant-in-hunter-valley-doesnt-stack-up">questioned its viability</a>. “Nobody is going to build it from the private sector because it doesn’t stack up,” she said. </p>
<p>She’s right. It didn’t stack up then and doesn’t stack up now, regardless of how it’s powered. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="coal power station seen from above" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443938/original/file-20220202-23-1t4urdt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Hunter Valley has long been a site for fossil fuel power stations, such as the Bayswater coal station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>The power plant no one needs</h2>
<p>When my colleagues and I took a <a href="https://www.vepc.org.au/_files/ugd/92a2aa_fba5b6e82d644293ad959586211572f1.pdf">deep dive</a> into this proposed power station, we found there was no need for it until at least 2030. That’s the best case. But as time goes by it is increasingly unlikely it will ever be needed as much cheaper and more efficient alternatives including batteries come to meet the increasing demand for stored energy. </p>
<p>That’s to say nothing of the fact the initial proposal would only have had enough gas stored to run for six hours and then take a day to recharge. Snowy Hydro has since upped these plans to 10 hours of storage. </p>
<p>And Snowy Hydro’s price tag of $600 million? Fiddlesticks. It will cost vastly more. We estimate well over $1bn when costs of the pipelines, storage and other infrastructure are included, even without hydrogen. As a result, there is no way Kurri Kurri would attract enough income to recover its costs. It’s hardly surprising private investors are steering clear. Why bankroll a dud? </p>
<h2>But isn’t it good to make gas plants greener?</h2>
<p>You can add up to 10% of hydrogen to conventional gas fired turbines without trouble. And you can use hydrogen as the primary fuel in turbine-based power plants, as South Korea <a href="https://www.modernpowersystems.com/features/featuredaesan-unit-burns-95-per-cent-hydrogen-fuel">has done</a> using hydrogen produced as a by-product in the process of refining oil. </p>
<p>The problem is the two Kurri Kurri turbines ordered by the government can run on a maximum of 15% hydrogen. Snowy Hydro suggests the turbines could be extended to a maximum 30% hydrogen mix, with changes to the internal equipment and piping. But the gas lateral pipeline/storage system is only being constructed to accommodate a 10% mix, and would need to be completely rebuilt to transmit a higher blend. </p>
<p>In short, converting Kurri Kurri to hydrogen means completely rebuilding the plant and its pipeline and storage infrastructure. These are not minor changes. </p>
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<img alt="gas fired plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/443948/original/file-20220202-17-mu228o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Kurri Kurri plant as depicted in Snowy Hydro planning documents.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Environmental Impact Statement, Snowy Hydro Hunter Power Project</span></span>
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<p>Let’s imagine Labor is elected and proves determined to press ahead with these plans. Where, exactly, will they get the green hydrogen from and how will it be stored to run the plant? At present, the world has no large scale source of climate-safe hydrogen produced from water. While there is a great deal of interest in large scale electrolysis – the process where we split water to get hydrogen and oxygen – there is a long road ahead. </p>
<h2>Let’s not waste time on distractions</h2>
<p>Is that the end of the issues plaguing this plant? Nope. Even if we get to the point where green hydrogen is plentiful, burning it in a combustion turbine is one of the most wasteful ways to use it. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/international-energy-agency-warns-against-new-fossil-fuel-projects-guess-what-australia-did-next-161178">International Energy Agency warns against new fossil fuel projects. Guess what Australia did next?</a>
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<p>That’s because combustion turbines are very inefficient ways to produce electricity. They waste half the energy they consume in the form of heat vented to the atmosphere. That alone makes the use of hydrogen in turbines uneconomic. In fact, we doubt hydrogen will ever be used in combustion turbines to produce electricity. There is absolutely no need to bother doing so, given much better alternatives already exist. Batteries already dominate the market for new storage in Australia and elsewhere and this will surely continue. </p>
<p>We’d be much better off using green hydrogen to decarbonise more difficult industries, such as the production of fertiliser, in industrial processes and chemical manufacturing, and for long-distance land or sea heavy freight where hydrogen still has a weight advantage over batteries. </p>
<p>There are enormous challenges to be met in the transition towards renewable energy and away from fossil fuels. These kinds of obviously economically and technically infeasible proposals serve only to set us back. We should give these plans short shrift. </p>
<p><em>Independent engineer Ted Woodley contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176157/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Mountain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor wants to run the Kurri Kurri gas power station on green hydrogen. But the figures don’t stack up.Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1677722021-09-12T11:01:58Z2021-09-12T11:01:58ZView from The Hill: Kristina Keneally’s house switch stops one row, starts another<p>When Tanya Plibersek – who many believe would give Labor its best chance if she were leader now – was asked about the party parachuting Kristina Keneally into the safe seat of Fowler, she slid all around the place to avoid giving a direct answer to an awkward question.</p>
<p>What might be called the Keneally “Fowler solution” is the outcome of Labor’s dilemma over its Senate ticket. Its two NSW senators from the right faction, Keneally and Deb O'Neill, were battling over who would get the ticket’s number one spot. With the left in the second spot, the loser would be relegated to the third place, considered unwinnable.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese claims Keneally, as Labor’s deputy leader in the Senate, would have been on the top of the ticket if she’d nominated. But O'Neill had strong union support.</p>
<p>Regardless, Keneally’s endorsement by the right faction for Fowler – being vacated at the election by the retirement of the popular Labor whip Chris Hayes – stopped a row. But it started another one.</p>
<p>When he announced he was retiring Hayes strongly promoted a young lawyer, Tu Le, daughter of Vietnamese refugees, to succeed him. She ticked boxes on gender, diversity and local grounds.</p>
<p>Keneally’s pushing her aside has caused outrage in some Labor circles.</p>
<p>Labor MP and Muslim Anne Aly told the ABC: “Diversity and equality and multiculturalism can’t just be a trope that Labor pulls out and parades while wearing a sari and eating some kung pao chicken to make ourselves look good”. She added, “I’m one of the few people of culturally, linguistically diverse backgrounds in the parliament – this matters to me”.</p>
<p>Appearing on the ABC on Sunday Plibersek was pressed about where she stood on the matter.</p>
<p>She tried a bluff: “I’m a glass half-full person. Aren’t we lucky in the Labor Party to have three fantastic women, all who want to be in parliament representing the Labor Party”.</p>
<p>Several follow ups, and several dodges, later, Plibersek was where she started: “I think Kristina is a fantastic candidate who’s made a great contribution. I also think Deb O'Neill has made a wonderful contribution in the Senate, and Tu Le has got a big future.”</p>
<p>While Keneally’s installation may be a snub to some locals, it should be noted it doesn’t deprive ALP branch members of a rank and file ballot they would otherwise have had.</p>
<p>Through a peculiar arrangement that goes back decades and has its origins in branch stacking, the preselection process for Fowler, a seat designated for the right, is very top down. The right faction selects its candidate, who is then rubber stamped by the party.</p>
<p>Keneally’s facilitated passage into Fowler is the latest break for the one-time NSW premier who lost the 2011 state election. She was a favourite of Bill Shorten and the candidate chosen to contest the 2017 Bennelong byelection. Then after Sam Dastyari quit the Senate as a result of revelations he’d promoted Chinese interests, Keneally took the casual vacancy.</p>
<p>After the 2019 election Keneally became the opposition’s deputy Senate leader, elbowing out right numbers man Don Farrell. This put her number four in Labor’s hierarchy. As home affairs spokeswoman she aggressively took the fight up to then home affairs minister Peter Dutton. They were well matched.</p>
<p>At Friday’s right faction meeting which endorsed her, Keneally described herself as the “accidental senator” and thought her “brawler” style better suited to the lower house.</p>
<p>Given her quick rise and her take-no-prisoners political approach, the question inevitably is: how high can Keneally hope to fly?</p>
<p>Those close to her say her move isn’t driven by leadership ambitions. Maybe not, but if her career up to now is any guide, it would be strange if she didn’t harbour them.</p>
<p>However she is not universally popular in the party and if Labor loses, it would be too early for her. The favourite to become opposition leader would probably be Plibersek who, while on the left, would overwhelmingly win a ballot among the rank and file, which gets a 50% say, with caucus having the other 50%. </p>
<p><strong>UPDATE: JOEL FITZGIBBON TO QUIT PARLIAMENT AT THE ELECTION</strong></p>
<p>Labor maverick Joel Fitzgibbon has announced he will not run at the next election.</p>
<p>Fitzgibbon, who holds the NSW coal seat of Hunter where there was a big swing against the ALP in 2019, quit the shadow cabinet last November, declaring himself on a mission to push Labor towards the centre on issue such as climate and coal, and put “the labour” back into the Labor party. </p>
<p>He said on Monday: “I feel I can now leave the parliament knowing Labor can win the next election under the leadership of Anthony Albanese”. </p>
<p>He said Labor would win “if it sells itself as a party of strong economic management and one with strong national security credentials. A party which encourages economic aspiration.</p>
<p>"A party committed to improving job security and lifting real wages. A party prepared to back our major export industries. A party committed to equality of opportunity for all, particularly our children”. </p>
<p>Fitzgibbon said climate change was an important issue for most Australians too but “should not be the subject of constant and shrill political debate”. </p>
<p>“Australia’s major political parties have a responsibility to build a community consensus on climate change policy,” he said, urging an end to the “climate wars”. </p>
<p>The Fitzgibbon announcement is not a surprise – Albanese had not expected him to stand again. </p>
<p>The Nationals have aspirations in Hunter, although polling done by the Australian Institute in June suggested Labor was in a reasonable position to hold the seat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167772/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Keneally’s pushing aside of young lawyer, Tu Le, in the elecorate for Fowler has caused outrage in some Labor circles.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1667522021-09-01T20:11:40Z2021-09-01T20:11:40ZAlbanese’s small-target strategy may give Labor a remarkable victory — or yet more heartbreak<p>The history of the Australian Labor Party is both proud and miserable. At the federal level, it has spent considerably more time in opposition than in office, holding government for just 26 of the 66 years since the end of the second world war.</p>
<p>It has been a party of debilitating, long-running splits. One was over conscription during the first world war. Another was over how to respond to the Great Depression. The worst split, over the influence of communists within the ALP and the Catholic groups that fought against it, extended from the 1950s to the 1970s. </p>
<p>It was so deep, so enduring, that it came to be known simply as <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-labor-party-split-74149">The Split</a> and kept Labor in opposition for 23 years straight.</p>
<p>That’s the miserable part. What about the pride? The ALP has, through the decades, survived the disruptions and eventually found its way back to office, even if only for brief periods as was the case under the leadership of Jim Scullin (1929-32), Gough Whitlam (1972-75), Kevin Rudd (2007-10; June-September 2013) and Julia Gillard (2010-13).</p>
<p>Since Federation, the ALP has enjoyed just two decent runs in office, under arguably the party’s four best leaders. John Curtin and then Ben Chifley headed a Labor government from 1941 to 1949. And the Labor government led first by Bob Hawke and later by Paul Keating governed for five terms in 1983-96.</p>
<p>In keeping with its remit as a standard-bearer of social democracy, Labor has habitually been the party of ideas, change and legislative ambition. This internal dynamism, drawing from the party’s members and its affiliated unions, which themselves have millions of members, has been what has helped Labor overcome its disappointments and blunders.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-the-government-on-the-ropes-anthony-albanese-has-a-fighting-chance-158129">With the government on the ropes, Anthony Albanese has a fighting chance</a>
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<p>On the three occasions in the past 50 years that voters have decided to elect Labor to government from opposition, the party has gone to them with an established, well-articulated, wide-ranging set of policy proposals. It has never just fallen into office.</p>
<p>Whitlam came to power with an extensive reform agenda dubbed <a href="https://www.naa.gov.au/explore-collection/australias-prime-ministers/gough-whitlam/during-office">The Program</a> – another Labor product that attracted capitalisation. He sought to implement it with an unyielding determination so fierce that it ultimately weakened his tenure. </p>
<p>Hawke offered a wide-ranging economic and social policy accord with the union movement as well as a formal consensus approach that included the corporate sector. </p>
<p>Rudd’s program in 2007 was less coherent and far-ranging but it did encompass a new workplace relations regime, a carbon emissions trading scheme and ambitious policies on education, broadband and manufacturing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418598/original/file-20210831-27-w3lzrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418598/original/file-20210831-27-w3lzrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418598/original/file-20210831-27-w3lzrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418598/original/file-20210831-27-w3lzrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418598/original/file-20210831-27-w3lzrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418598/original/file-20210831-27-w3lzrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418598/original/file-20210831-27-w3lzrk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">On the few occasions since the second world war when Labor has won office from opposition, it has done so with a bold reform agenda. This included Bob Hawke’s win in 1983.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">solidarity.net.au</span></span>
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<p>Each time, Labor took office after voters bought its message that there were substantial problems in Australian society that needed fixing.</p>
<p>The personalities and capabilities of the party’s leaders have counted for a great deal. But, above all, policy and ideology have been decisive factors in Labor’s triumphs and troubles throughout its long history.</p>
<p>How times have changed. More than two years into Anthony Albanese’s leadership, and with an election likely to be called less than six months from now, the Labor Party has offered few real signs of its plans for the nation.</p>
<p>Albanese’s approach so far has been to emphasise what he won’t do. He has overseen the stripping back of the party’s platform and junked proposals deemed to have hurt Labor at the last election, covering franking credits, capital gains tax and negative gearing.</p>
<p>On climate change, voters have been told to wait until closer to the election to be told how Labor would reach zero net carbon emissions by 2050. Policy pronouncements in most key areas are being pushed off into that nebulous “closer to the election” timeframe.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-is-set-to-have-itself-a-nervy-little-christmas-its-not-too-late-to-make-2021-sing-150186">Labor is set to have itself a nervy little Christmas. It's not too late to make 2021 sing</a>
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<p>Essentially, Albanese has asked himself “what would Bill Shorten do?” and then done the opposite. As leader, Shorten saw off two Liberal prime ministers in Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. He did this by going in hard against them – a strategy he continued against the third Liberal leader he faced, Scott Morrison – while also releasing a torrent of challenging policy ideas. </p>
<p>At the 2016 election, this approach almost got Shorten across the line. In 2019, he failed again even though the opinion polls had suggested he would win.</p>
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<span class="caption">Anthony Albanese’s strategy so far has been to ask himself ‘what would Bill Shorten do?’ and then do the opposite.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Shorten’s approach of setting the political agenda did not produce electoral success, so Albanese has dedicated himself to not reproducing it. Judging that in 2019 Labor had too many policies, a confusing set of messages and a deeply unpopular chief salesman, he has backed himself in as a considerably better salesman who cannot be tripped up because he is in no danger of offering too much, too soon.</p>
<p>Nowhere was this better demonstrated than in Albanese’s <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/media-centre/budget-reply-speech-2021">budget reply speech</a> in May. The government had thrown out its entire budget strategy, the nation was roiled by the pandemic, and the vaccine rollout was a shambles. Albanese used this nationally televised prime time appearance to talk about social housing – a worthy policy area, for sure, but an exceedingly strange choice for that moment.</p>
<p>The Labor leader’s risk-averse strategy seems to rest on an assumption that there is a natural equilibrium in national electoral politics – that an open-minded public approaches each election as a contest between evenly matched contenders. History suggests, however, that when it comes to electing Labor to power that is not true.</p>
<p>Clearly, Shorten was not popular enough among voters to get Labor over the line. There appears to be less antagonism and disdain towards Albanese in the community, but is he sufficiently more popular to make a difference? Here, we are left to rely on opinion polls, a fraught enterprise after their failures at the 2019 election.</p>
<p>On personal measures such as satisfaction and preferred prime minister, Albanese rates higher than Shorten but still scores a negative approval rating and lags behind Morrison in Newspoll and the Nine papers’ Resolve Political Monitor. To put it crudely, while Albanese is not as unpopular as Shorten, he could not be said to be popular; he is certainly not more popular personally than Morrison, his direct opponent. </p>
<p>Albanese’s supporters, mindful that the prime minister is expected to call an election less than five months from now, point to the latest Newspoll, which shows Labor ahead of the government 54-46 on a two-party preferred basis, as a sign that his strategy is working.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-slumps-but-morrison-gains-in-newspoll-electoral-changes-to-curb-micro-parties-166886">Coalition slumps but Morrison gains in Newspoll; electoral changes to curb micro parties</a>
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<p>Shorten’s backers did the same thing at the end of 2018. In November and December of that year, just five months before the election, Newspoll had Labor with an even bigger lead, 55-45. Come the election, Labor’s two-party preferred vote was 48.5%.</p>
<p>It’s true political leaders live to create history rather than follow it, but it’s also the case that a Labor leader who pursues a strategy of keeping out of trouble in the hope that his opponent will fall over is taking a bold and unprecedented course. The result will be either the ALP’s most remarkable victory, or yet more heartbreak.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166752/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Carney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On the relatively rare occasions Labor has won victory from opposition, it has done so with a strong reform agenda. So far, Albanese is taking a big – and risky – departure from that.Shaun Carney, Vice-Chancellor's professorial fellow, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.