tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/america-first-34020/articlesAmerica First – The Conversation2023-09-17T12:07:44Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2131122023-09-17T12:07:44Z2023-09-17T12:07:44ZWhy AUKUS is here to stay, despite looming roadblocks<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-aukus-is-here-to-stay-despite-looming-roadblocks" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/00207020231198134">AUKUS</a> is a defence agreement among Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States designed to deter Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific region.</p>
<p>The agreement both reflects and reinforces larger strategic shifts in <a href="https://scindeks-clanci.ceon.rs/data/ipdf/2217-995X/2022/2217-995X2202155V.pdf">the region</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-prospects-for-chinese-leadership-in-an-age-of-upheaval-99960">and beyond</a>. It’s a long game, something the world should keep in mind as the two-year-old pact faces multiple political complications in U.S. Congress.</p>
<p>Dubbed “<a href="https://twitter.com/RepJoeCourtney/status/1612943552824188928">the most important security alliance America has forged in decades</a>” by a Democratic congressman, AUKUS actually arose from an Australian idea to bring the three countries’ defence industries closer together. </p>
<h2>Two pillars</h2>
<p>The partnership is set up into <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231198134">two pillars</a>. </p>
<p>Pillar 1 deals with the transfer of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231195269">nuclear submarine technology</a> among the partners, with an eye on developing and producing a fleet of nuclear-powered “AUKUS submarines” for use by both the British Royal Navy and the Royal Australian Navy.</p>
<p>Details are still to come about AUKUS Pillar 2 and its focus areas: other advanced (but non-nuclear) defence technologies such as hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence and quantum computing.</p>
<p>The pact is promising a <a href="https://www.pmi.org/-/media/pmi/documents/public/pdf/research/research-summaries/flyvbjerg_megaprojects.pdf">series of megaprojects</a> in a technical sense — massive, complex ventures that could take decades to complete and cost billions of dollars. It’s also pledging sustained joint involvement of diverse ministries and public agencies — a whole-of-government approach — among all three nations.</p>
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<p>For the partnership to begin to work as advertised, U.S. lawmakers in Congress must first pass three key authorizations. One is an <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2023/09/05/aukus-standoff-australia-uk-wait-on-congress-to-approve-pact/">exemption for Australia and the U.K. from Washington’s export control regime</a> so that sensitive defence technologies can be shared more swiftly. </p>
<p>The other two authorizations involve <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/13/fact-sheet-trilateral-australia-uk-us-partnership-on-nuclear-powered-submarines/">the sale of Virginia-class submarines to Australia and Australian participation in the American submarine industrial base</a>. </p>
<p>On this front, the key roadblock is a group of Senate Republicans who want Congress to put “America first,” meaning investing more money in U.S. submarine producers so they can more easily absorb the AUKUS deal.</p>
<h2>The spectre of Trump</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/aukus-is-supposed-to-allow-for-robust-technology-sharing-the-us-will-need-to-change-its-onerous-laws-first-206607">Given they were so predictable</a>, these legislative snarls aren’t fatal to the pact and will likely be resolved sooner than some observers think.</p>
<p>But what about a Donald Trump — or Trumpist — comeback in 2024?</p>
<p>The stakes of the 2024 presidential election are high. The possibility of civil disorder is real, as is a sharp turn towards authoritarianism. In foreign policy, more Trumpism would mean more quasi-isolationism and a great deal more unilateralism, possibly including <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65573756">withdrawing support</a> to <a href="https://www.cips-cepi.ca/event/beyond-the-headlines-the-war-in-ukraine-a-roundtable/">Ukraine and NATO</a> against Vladimir Putin’s Russia.</p>
<p>Yet even in this extreme scenario, AUKUS would likely survive. Few causes today unite the U.S. political class — from traditional Republicans to MAGA-style populists to many Democrats — as effectively as opposition to the rise of China.</p>
<p>Add to this a long-standing bipartisan desire for the strongest possible military, and there’s good reason to expect continued investment in the trilateral partnership as a means of countering Beijing’s <a href="https://scindeks-clanci.ceon.rs/data/ipdf/2217-995X/2022/2217-995X2202155V.pdf">bid to expand its sphere of influence</a>.</p>
<p>The U.K. and Australia will stay the course too. </p>
<p>The main Australian political parties are <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-labor-conference-gives-albanese-a-firm-yes-on-aukus-211827">united</a> in boosting the pact’s benefits while minimizing its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231195631">risks and costs</a>. </p>
<p>In the U.K., where the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-labours-deputy-leader-appointed-levelling-up-policy-chief-2023-09-04/">Labour party is likely</a> to win the next election, AUKUS is solid because it fulfils the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231195629">country’s long-standing</a> foreign policy goals: a <a href="https://www.manchesterhive.com/display/9781526151438/9781526151438.xml">“special relationship”</a> with the U.S. and meaningful contribution to <a href="https://www.mqup.ca/greatness-and-decline-products-9780228005872.php">global security</a>.</p>
<h2>Wider support</h2>
<p>Importantly, support for AUKUS is not confined to the three member states. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231201575">Japan</a>, Singapore, South Korea, the Philippines and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231197761">Taiwan</a> have all welcomed the pact as a counterweight to China. The same goes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231195109">for Canada</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-defence-dilemma-facing-nzs-next-government-stay-independent-or-join-pillar-2-of-aukus-212090">New Zealand</a>, both of which are already in the intelligence-pooling <a href="https://www.dni.gov/index.php/ncsc-how-we-work/217-about/organization/icig-pages/2660-icig-fiorc">Five Eyes partnership</a> with AUKUS nations. </p>
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<p>In fact, now that American officials are touting Pillar 2’s <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-new-zealand-nanaia-mahuta-at-a-joint-press-availability/">“open door”</a> policy, some of these countries — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231197208">including France</a> — could soon be lining up to join the trilateral policy process in one way or another.</p>
<p>Wind in the sails of the trilateral partnership is also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231197785">blowing in from India</a>. </p>
<p>Rather than voicing loud concerns about nuclear non-proliferation and regional arms races, India tacitly supports the partnership. This is crucial for the pact because the <a href="https://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/AeroIndia_svucetic_110213">strategically non-aligned</a> India has considerable power to make or break any U.S.-led strategy to deter China. </p>
<p>An aspect of this influence is on display in Ukraine: <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2023/0207/Why-is-democratic-India-helping-Russia-avoid-Western-sanctions">India’s unwillingness to join western sanctions against Russia</a> is one of the reasons why Putin continues to wage his war.</p>
<p>The region’s other major players, including key <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231197767">Association of Southeast Asian Nations</a> states like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, are much more wary about the pact. Yet the accelerating U.S.-China rivalry may push them to make a choice.</p>
<p>Just a few days ago, we saw this process at work in Hanoi, where U.S. President Joe Biden and his Vietnamese hosts held a news conference to remind the world that former foes can become strategic partners of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/10/biden-g20-summit-india-vietnam/">“highest tier.”</a></p>
<p>AUKUS certainly faces political challenges right now, and the next year may bring even deeper problems. And since it deals with so many megaprojects, its implementation will always be difficult.</p>
<p>However, big-picture geopolitical realities suggest AUKUS is here to stay.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article follows from a special issue Srdjan Vucetic guest-edited in International Journal, which in turn is based on a conference held in 2022 at the University of Ottawa's Center for International Policy Studies for which the author received a grant from the MINDS program of Canada's Department of National Defence. </span></em></p>AUKUS faces political challenges right now, and the next year may bring even deeper problems. Big-picture geopolitical realities suggest AUKUS will survive.Srdjan Vucetic, Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099532023-07-27T21:19:55Z2023-07-27T21:19:55ZChallenges to free trade reveal a big change in conservative ideology<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539657/original/file-20230726-23-1wern1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4992%2C3196&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cargo containers are seen on the Maersk Stockholm ship while docked at port in Vancouver in April 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/challenges-to-free-trade-reveal-a-big-change-in-conservative-ideology" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The pursuit of greater economic integration through expanded free trade has long been central to the economic policy of most western democracies, including Canada. </p>
<p>Since the implementation of the <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/united-states-canada-free-trade-agreement">Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement in 1988</a>, both Liberal and Conservative governments have pursued and continue to pursue <a href="https://pfcollins.com/canadas-free-trade-agreements/">more free-trade zones with additional partners in Europe, the Americas and the Pacific Rim</a>. </p>
<p>Recently, however, this general international consensus appears to be unravelling. Trade liberalization is being attacked for <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2022/international-trade-income-inequality-0607">promoting income inequality</a>, <a href="https://hbr.org/1988/09/manufacturing-offshore-is-bad-business">hollowing out the manufacturing sector</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937802200005X">perpetuating underdevelopment in the Global South</a> and increasing the influence of morally dubious states and <a href="https://sites.manchester.ac.uk/global-social-challenges/2022/07/16/free-trade-has-made-corporations-too-powerful/">international corporations</a>. </p>
<p>Economic and social criticisms of free trade, particularly from more left-wing positions, are well-established and longstanding. However, more recent and growing criticisms are now <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/03/31/republicans-especially-trump-supporters-see-free-trade-deals-as-bad-for-u-s/">emerging from the right</a> in Europe and the United States. </p>
<h2>Conservative shift</h2>
<p>These condemnations are effectively disrupting the longstanding ideological orthodoxy that conservatives have maintained when it comes to free trade.</p>
<p>They also reflect not so much an economic critique as they do a preoccupation with social and cultural policy. In fact, these criticisms are tied to many of the broader transformations that are beginning to characterize contemporary conservative politics. </p>
<p>Modern-day conservative enthusiasm for free trade consolidated in the 1980s as a component of <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/705/chapter-abstract/135378613?redirectedFrom=fulltext">a broader shift to neoliberalism</a> that, while felt across the political spectrum, was particularly pronounced for the right. </p>
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<p>It drew upon the influence of <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2020/05/14/friedrich-hayek-long-shadow-austrian-school/">Friedrich August von Hayek, an Austrian-British economist, and the “Austrian school” of economics</a> to argue that the state should operate like a free market and social and cultural issues should be a matter of individual discretion. </p>
<p>Free trade, therefore, was advocated as part of a greater project aiming for greater economic deregulation and state rollback that proponents argued would be more conducive to individual freedoms.</p>
<p>This consensus, however, was challenged by insurgent radical right-wing parties. Donald Trump was elected president of the United States in 2016 partly on his allegations that America’s <a href="https://time.com/4386335/donald-trump-trade-speech-transcript/">free-trade deals were “rigged” by inept domestic negotiators</a> and malicious international entities.</p>
<p>His administration <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2019-08-12/trumps-assault-global-trading-system">sought to shake up the status quo</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/#:%7E:text=On%20his%20first%20day%20in,era%20of%20multinational%20trade%20agreements.">pulling out of Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/business/economy/trump-steel-tariffs.html#:%7E:text=Trump%20said.,it%20came%20as%20a%20relief.">imposing protectionism on steel and aluminum</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/phillevy/2020/08/09/the-verdict-on-trump-trade-policy-part-1-fixing-nafta/?sh=5c6449ac5a2f">renegotiating NAFTA</a> <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/">and starting a trade war with China.</a></p>
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<img alt="A blond rotund man grimaces with his hands in fists in the cab of an 18-wheeler truck." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539640/original/file-20230726-15-29psj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">In this March 2017 photo, Donald Trump gestures while sitting in an 18-wheeler truck while meeting with truckers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)</span></span>
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<h2>Class divisions</h2>
<p>Since then, a number of American conservatives — such as Republican senators J.D. Vance and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/29/opinion/hawley-supply-chain-trade-policy.html">Josh Hawley</a> — have developed a more comprehensive form of opposition. </p>
<p>Vance has criticized free trade for empowering a cosmopolitan, socially progressive urban class <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/towards-a-pro-worker-pro-family-conservatism/">at the expense of the average American worker</a>. Shut out of wage and labour mobility, he says these working-class Americans are unable to establish a base of financial independence necessary for thriving communities. </p>
<p>These conservatives advocate for protectionism as part of broader state-directed industrial policy to pursue more desirable social ends; a shift to a more robust and interventionist state. </p>
<p>They also want a government that is more morally partial. This means that unlike the prior emphasis on individual freedom or discretion, they challenge the idea that the state can be neutral when it comes to moral, cultural and spiritual values.</p>
<p>Their goals include the revival of domestic manufacturing capacity, <a href="https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/americas-epicurean-liberalism">individual economic self-determination</a> and strong families, even though these aims might counteract free-market incentives. </p>
<p><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3670801-republicans-are-the-new-isolationists-will-us-retreat-from-world-stage/">Changes in conservative thinking on foreign policy</a> are also relevant. Conservatives are moving away from the prior emphasis on international intervention and interdependence to more of an “America First” idea that the U.S. ought to prioritize the needs of its own citizens than those abroad.</p>
<p>Free trade is also attacked for providing avenues for potentially malicious entities — including rival states like China, international organizations, or powerful corporate interests — to undermine national well-being. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-two-key-issues-on-the-table-to-bring-canada-back-into-nafta-102545">The two key issues on the table to bring Canada back into NAFTA</a>
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<h2>Canada’s conservative history</h2>
<p>So far, this shift has had only minimal impact on conservatives in Canada. But recent federal Conservative leaders, while generally supportive of further trade liberalization, have alluded to changing their thinking on trade and foreign policy. </p>
<p>Former Conservative Party of Canada leader Erin O’Toole, for example, broadly referred to a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-o-toole-pnp-interview-1.5716115">“Canada First” approach</a> that emphasized greater industrial self-sufficiency along with skepticism towards China. Current leader Pierre Poilievre has <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/poilievre-promises-to-ban-all-overseas-oil-imports-within-five-years-of-being-elected-remove-government-red-tape-blocking-west-to-east-pipelines">promised a ban on all overseas oil imports</a>. </p>
<p>Canadian conservatives were once against free trade. Prior to 1988 — when the Canada-U.S. free-trade deal was signed — they had a very different approach to economic policy and many believed encouraging continental integration would fundamentally weaken Canadian sovereignty and national distinctiveness. </p>
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<img alt="A man with grey hair and a moustache smiles among a crowd in a black-and-white photo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=774&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539654/original/file-20230726-18363-fw7bkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Canadian Prime Minister Robert Borden is greeted in London, England in 1912.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(National Archives of Canada)</span></span>
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<p>In the 1911 election, for example, Robert Borden’s Conservatives <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-economics-and-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-economiques-et-science-politique/article/abs/robert-borden-and-the-election-of-1911/719CED587379B5745B882CE73B70A467">campaigned against Liberal Wilfrid Laurier government’s free-trade policy</a> on the claim it would “Americanize” Canada. </p>
<p>John A. Macdonald’s <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/poilievre-promises-to-ban-all-overseas-oil-imports-within-five-years-of-being-elected-remove-government-red-tape-blocking-west-to-east-pipelines">national policy</a>, as pursued by Conservative governments throughout the early 20th century, levied high tariffs on foreign imported goods to help Canadian manufacturing withstand American competition.</p>
<p>In contrast to today’s conservatism, these early Canadian conservatives demonstrated support for a large, interventionist state — and not the free market — to support the expansion of national banking, transportation and infrastructure. </p>
<p>As free trade continues to come under attack by modern-day conservatives, this history may provide signposts to follow international trends — which could have important consequences for Canadian partisan politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209953/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Routley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Contemporary conservatives have largely been pro-free trade. That’s no longer the case. What’s fuelling the change?Sam Routley, PhD Candidate, Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081702023-06-28T12:59:46Z2023-06-28T12:59:46ZWhat is the difference between nationalism and patriotism?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533816/original/file-20230623-4805-h1p42y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=41%2C6%2C4530%2C2755&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump, left, and Harry Truman: Two former presidents who had different ideas about nationalism and patriotism.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Donald_Trump_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg">The Conversation, with images from Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During his presidency, Donald Trump said, “We’re putting America first … we’re taking care of ourselves for a change,” and then declared, “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lLQ8IEm8PE">I’m a nationalist</a>.” In another <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/25/trump-un-speech-2018-full-text-transcript-840043">speech</a>, he stated that under his watch, the U.S. had “<a href="https://youtu.be/KfVdIKaQzW8?t=1182">embrace[d] the doctrine of patriotism</a>.”</p>
<p>Trump is now running for president again. When he announced his candidacy, he <a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/former-president-trump-announces-2024-presidential-bid-transcript">stated</a> that he “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hugb9fDXTd8">need[s] every patriot on board</a> because this is not just a campaign, this is a quest to save our country.” </p>
<p>One week later he dined in Mar-a-Lago with <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/25/trump-nick-fuentes-ye-kanye">Nick Fuentes</a>, a self-described <a href="https://www.tribstar.com/news/local_news/fuentes-i-am-an-american-nationalist/article_57dfaf0e-2751-5039-97e2-2ce832bbf870.html">nationalist</a> who’s been banned from Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, YouTube and other platforms <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/nick-fuentes-live-streamer-white-nationalist-suspended-twitter-1608438">for using racist and antisemitic language</a>. </p>
<p>Afterward, Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/109405826070401204">confirmed that meeting</a> but did not denounce Fuentes, despite <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kejjJyABP0o">calls for him to do so</a>. </p>
<p>The words <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1193192673429131264">nationalism</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/1044633849572077568">patriotism</a> are sometimes used as synonyms, such as when Trump and his supporters describe his <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1347555316863553542">America First</a> agenda. But many <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/12461">political scientists</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vXXZBEkAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">including me</a>, don’t typically see those two terms as equivalent – or even compatible. </p>
<p>There is a difference, and it’s important, not just to scholars but to regular citizens as well.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533517/original/file-20230622-23-ovgndv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A comic depicting Superman talking to people about treating others with respect and dignity." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533517/original/file-20230622-23-ovgndv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533517/original/file-20230622-23-ovgndv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=828&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533517/original/file-20230622-23-ovgndv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=828&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533517/original/file-20230622-23-ovgndv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=828&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533517/original/file-20230622-23-ovgndv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1041&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533517/original/file-20230622-23-ovgndv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1041&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533517/original/file-20230622-23-ovgndv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1041&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An image from 1950, colorized in 2017, shows Superman – a refugee from another planet and a character created by two Jewish immigrants to the U.S. – teaching that patriotism should drive out nationalism.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.dc.com/blog/2017/08/25/superman-a-classic-message-restored">DC Comics</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Devotion to a people</h2>
<p>To understand what nationalism is, it’s useful to understand what a nation is – and isn’t. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780199599868.001.0001/acref-9780199599868-e-1237">nation</a> is a group of people who share a history, culture, language, religion or some combination thereof.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/country">country</a>, which is sometimes called a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/state-sovereign-political-entity">state</a> in political science terminology, is an <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2010/04/08/in-quite-a-state">area</a> of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-many-states-and-provinces-are-in-the-world-157847">land</a> that has its own government. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/nation-state">nation-state is a homogeneous political entity</a> mostly comprising a single nation. Nation-states <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/theneweurope/wk18.htm">are rare</a>, because nearly every country is home to more than one national group. One example of a nation-state would be <a href="https://www.mhpbooks.com/books/the-cleanest-race/">North Korea</a>, where almost all residents are ethnic Koreans.</p>
<p>The United States is neither a nation nor a nation-state. Rather, it is a country of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2013/11/11/244527860/forget-the-50-states-u-s-is-really-11-nations-says-author">many different groups of people</a> who have a variety of shared histories, cultures, languages and religions.</p>
<p>Some of those groups are <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/01/28/2022-01789/indian-entities-recognized-by-and-eligible-to-receive-services-from-the-united-states-bureau-of">formally recognized</a> by the federal government, such as the <a href="https://www.navajo-nsn.gov">Navajo Nation</a> and the <a href="https://www.cherokee.org">Cherokee Nation</a>. Similarly, in Canada, the French-speaking <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Quebecois">Québécois</a> <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/house-passes-motion-recognizing-quebecois-as-nation-1.574359">are recognized</a> as being a distinct “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGuLE7zmcqM">nation within a united Canada</a>.” </p>
<p>Nationalism is, per one dictionary definition, “<a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/nationalism">loyalty and devotion to a nation</a>.” It is a person’s strong affinity for those who share the same history, culture, language or religion. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/527">Scholars</a> understand <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610.1990.9968234">nationalism as exclusive</a>, boosting one identity group over – and at times in direct opposition to – others.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/oath-keepers-founder-sentenced-to-18-years-for-seditious-conspiracy-in-lead-up-to-jan-6-insurrection-4-essential-reads-206482">Oath Keepers</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/proud-boys-members-convicted-of-seditious-conspiracy-3-essential-reads-on-the-group-and-right-wing-extremist-white-nationalism-205094">Proud Boys</a> – <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/23/oath-keepers-guilty-seditious-conspiracy-jan-6-00079083">10 of whom</a> were convicted of seditious conspiracy for their role in <a href="https://theconversation.com/jan-6-committee-tackled-unprecedented-attack-with-time-tested-inquiry-195999">the Jan. 6 attack</a> on the U.S. Capitol – are both examples of <a href="https://theconversation.com/white-nationalism-is-a-political-ideology-that-mainstreams-racist-conspiracy-theories-184375">white nationalist</a> groups, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/white-nationalism-born-in-the-usa-is-now-a-global-terror-threat-113825">believe</a> that immigrants and people of color are a threat to their ideals of civilization. </p>
<p>Trump has described the events that took place on Jan. 6, 2021, as having occurred “<a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/109401452224192463">Peacefully & Patrioticly</a>”. He has described those who have been imprisoned as “<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-praises-jan-6-rioters-great-patriots-1773808">great patriots</a>” and has said that he would <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-pardoning-extremists-undermines-the-rule-of-law-207272">pardon</a> “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/transcript-cnn-town-hall-trump/index.html">a large portion of them</a>” if elected in 2024.</p>
<p>There are many other nationalisms beyond white nationalism. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nation-of-islam-a-brief-history-198227">The Nation of Islam</a>, for instance, is an example of a <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/black%20nationalist">Black nationalist</a> group. The <a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/profile/nation-islam">Anti-Defamation League</a> and the <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/group/nation-islam">Southern Poverty Law Center</a> have both characterized it as a Black supremacist hate group for its anti-white prejudices.</p>
<p>In addition to white and Black <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02589340500101741">racial nationalisms</a>, there are also <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20032578">ethnic</a> and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26222195">lingustic</a> nationalisms, which typically seek greater autonomy for – and the eventual independence of – certain national groups. Examples include the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/world/canada/Bloc-Quebecois-Nationalism.html">Bloc Québécois</a>, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/24/snp-leader-general-election-win-mandate-independence-push-humza-yousaf">Scottish Nationalist Party</a> and <a href="https://www.partyof.wales/annibyniaeth_i_gymru_welsh_independence">Plaid Cymru – the Party of Wales</a>, which are nationalist political parties that respectively advocate for the Québécois of Québéc, the Scots of Scotland and the Welsh of Wales.</p>
<h2>Devotion to a place</h2>
<p>In contrast to nationalism’s loyalty for or devotion to one’s nation, patriotism is, per the same dictionary, “<a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/patriotism">love for or devotion to one’s country</a>.” It comes from the word <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/patriot">patriot</a>, which itself can be traced back to the Greek word <a href="https://logeion.uchicago.edu/%CF%80%CE%AC%CF%84%CF%81%CE%B9%CE%BF%CF%82">patrios</a>, which means “of one’s father.” </p>
<p>In other words, patriotism has historically meant a love for and devotion to one’s <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fatherland">fatherland</a>, or country of origin.</p>
<p>Patriotism encompasses devotion to the country as a whole – including all the people who live within it. Nationalism refers to devotion to only one group of people over all others.</p>
<p>An example of <a href="https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/articles/martin-luther-king-jr-model-american-patriot/">patriotism</a> would be Martin Luther King Jr.’s “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2010/01/18/122701268/i-have-a-dream-speech-in-its-entirety#">I Have a Dream</a>” speech, in which <a href="https://theconversation.com/mlks-vision-of-love-as-a-moral-imperative-still-matters-89946">he</a> recites <a href="https://www.classical-music.com/features/works/my-country-tis-of-thee-lyrics/">the first verse</a> of the patriotic song “<a href="https://bensguide.gpo.gov/j-america-my-country">America (My Country ‘Tis of Thee)</a>.” In his “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2013/04/16/177355381/50-years-later-kings-birmingham-letter-still-resonates">Letter from Birmingham Jail</a>,” King describes “nationalist groups” as being “<a href="https://www.csuchico.edu/iege/_assets/documents/susi-letter-from-birmingham-jail.pdf">made up of people who have lost faith in America</a>.”</p>
<p>George Orwell, the author of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/orwells-ideas-remain-relevant-75-years-after-animal-farm-was-published-165431">Animal Farm</a>” and “<a href="https://theconversation.com/guide-to-the-classics-orwells-1984-and-how-it-helps-us-understand-tyrannical-power-today-112066">Nineteen Eighty-Four</a>,” describes patriotism as “<a href="https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/notes-on-nationalism/">devotion to a particular place</a> and a particular way of life.” </p>
<p>He contrasted that with nationalism, which he describes as “the habit of identifying oneself with a single nation or other unit, placing it beyond good and evil and recognizing no other duty than that of advancing its interests.”</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/smEqnnklfYs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In his ‘I Have a Dream’ speech and other works, Martin Luther King Jr. decried nationalism and encouraged patriotism.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Nationalism vs. patriotism</h2>
<p>Adolf Hitler’s rise in Germany was accomplished by perverting patriotism and embracing nationalism. According to <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-understood-you-may-1958-the-return-of-de-gaulle-and-the-fall-of-frances-fourth-republic-93510">Charles de Gaulle</a>, who led <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Free-French">Free France</a> against Nazi Germany during World War II and later became president of France, “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/quotes/Charles-de-Gaulle-president-of-France">Patriotism is when love of your own people comes first; nationalism, when hate for people other than your own comes first</a>.” </p>
<p>The tragedy of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-websites-to-help-educate-about-the-horrors-of-the-holocaust-152702">Holocaust</a> was rooted in the nationalistic belief that certain groups of people were inferior. While Hitler is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/quantifying-the-holocaust-measuring-murder-rates-during-the-nazi-genocide-108984">particularly extreme example</a>, in my own research as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vXXZBEkAAAAJ&hl=en">human rights scholar</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219409">I have found</a> that even in contemporary times, countries with nationalist leaders are more likely to have bad human rights records.</p>
<p>After World War II, President Harry Truman signed the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/marshall-plan">Marshall Plan</a>, which would provide postwar aid to Europe. The intent of the program was to help European countries “<a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/special-message-the-congress-the-marshall-plan">break away from the self-defeating actions of narrow nationalism</a>.”</p>
<p>For Truman, putting <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/110537721192978858">America first</a> did not mean <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-foreign-policy-is-still-america-first-what-does-that-mean-exactly-144841">exiting the global stage</a> and sowing division at home with nationalist actions and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-field-guide-to-trumps-dangerous-rhetoric-139531">rhetoric</a>. Rather, he viewed the “principal concern of the people of the United States” to be “the creation of conditions of enduring peace throughout the world.” For him, patriotically <a href="https://theconversation.com/america-cant-be-first-without-europe-75109">putting the interests of his country first</a> meant fighting against nationalism.</p>
<p>This view is in line with that of French President <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-macron-marches-to-parliamentary-majority-in-france-79245">Emmanuel Macron</a>, who has stated that “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-t-QIqsCTr8">patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism</a>.” </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.axios.com/2018/11/11/emmanuel-macron-nationalism-patriotism-donald-trump">Nationalism,” he says, “is a betrayal of patriotism</a>.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Holzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nationalism and patriotism are sometimes treated as synonyms, but they have very different meanings.Joshua Holzer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Westminster CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2014422023-03-13T12:27:51Z2023-03-13T12:27:51ZI went to CPAC to take MAGA supporters’ pulse – China and transgender people are among the top ‘demons’ they say are ruining the country<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514548/original/file-20230309-24-o5p4kc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters listen to former President Donald Trump at the CPAC meeting in Maryland in March 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1471785336/photo/conservatives-attend-the-annual-cpac-event.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=1CcS6iWonBndweUgASis85ByHA9zDABHpwwizHwuFkY=">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In early March 2023, I mixed with the <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/sep/21/what-maga-republican/">Make America Great Again faithful</a> at the annual <a href="https://www.conservative.org/">Conservative Political Action Conference</a> – a popular meeting, often known as CPAC, for conservative activists and political figures. </p>
<p>I walked, ate and sat with the attendees at the National Harbor in Maryland over the course of four days. Many of them <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/05/cpac-photos-2023-maga-00085521">were dressed in MAGA</a> and pro-Trump gear such as sequined hats and shirts that said things like “Trump won” the 2020 election. A few had tattoos of Trump’s face.</p>
<p>Media reports show that CPAC, which did not publicize the number of attendees, had <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/cpac-2023-conservative-conference-suffers-from-low-attendance-and-lack-of-sponsors">lower-than-normal attendance</a> and <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/03/cpac-was-a-janky-half-empty-trump-convention.html">fewer high-profile sponsors</a>. </p>
<p>Approximately 62% of CPAC attendees participating in a straw poll said they <a href="https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2023/03/06/trump-cpac-straw-poll-desantis-2024-republican-nomination">support Donald Trump for president</a> in 2024. </p>
<h2>Understanding CPAC</h2>
<p>Many commentators and others <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/cpac-starts-today-trump-kari-lake-desantis-missing-rcna72895">have labeled CPAC extremist</a>. The program was loaded with sometimes incendiary figures reviled by the left, including Republican Reps. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/28/marjorie-taylor-greene-kevin-mccarthy-republicans-house-committee">Marjorie Taylor Greene</a> and Matt Gaetz, as well as former Trump political advisers Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller.</p>
<p><a href="https://sasn.rutgers.edu/about-us/faculty-staff/alex-hinton">I am a scholar of extremism</a> in the United States and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/right-wing-cpac-forum-trump-shows-why-hell-be-tough-topple-2023-03-05/">went to CPAC</a> for two reasons. First, I wanted to hear firsthand what conservatives, and especially Trump followers, said. At a time of high political polarization, it is important to understand different positions. </p>
<p>Second, almost half of people in the U.S. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/29/us-civil-war-fears-poll">fear political violence</a> and civil war. I wanted to take the pulse of the conservative right and assess points of division ahead of the 2024 presidential election. </p>
<p>The conference’s theme was “Protecting America Now.” Who and what were the perceived threats? And, amid the polarization, was there any common ground shared by conservatives and liberals?</p>
<p>I discovered five frequent demons at the conference: there were China’s Communist Party and border criminals – including Mexican drug cartels and undocumented immigrants. “Radical left Marxists” and the ideologies of “wokism” and “transgenderism” were also frequent targets. </p>
<p>While I also found a few glimmers of hope for political common ground between the left and right, it was apparent that Trumpism – and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/02/trump-playbook-us-midterms-republicans-election-denial">election denial</a>, misinformation and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/current/trumps-dangerous-scapegoating-of-immigrants-at-the-state-of-the-union">scapegoating that come</a> with it – is stronger than some think and, I believe, remains a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/02/trumps-loosening-grip-gop-early-2024-campaign-00085092">threat to U.S. democracy.</a> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a wheelchair goes past a booth in a convention room that says 'Believe in America, not the media.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514553/original/file-20230309-24-wp96ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">CPAC attendees visit booths promoting political groups and products for sale.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1470814843/photo/conservatives-attend-the-annual-cpac-event.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=ouPMEVq4i00TxkUlufKELh78GpYLg9noO6KbWaAfV8I=">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>China</h2>
<p>China was one of the biggest common enemies identified at the conference. Just days after senior U.S. intelligence officials said that China is the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-worldwide-threats-hearing">United States’ biggest national security threat</a>, speaker after speaker at CPAC harped on this theme. </p>
<p>The first day included panels titled “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVF__aUNlr8">Caging the Red Dragon</a>” and “No Chinese Balloons Above Tennessee.” </p>
<p>Such language plays to the growing number of Americans who view China as <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/471494/americans-continue-view-china-greatest-enemy.aspx%20/">the country’s biggest enemy</a>. </p>
<h2>Border criminals</h2>
<p>The focus on China connected to another target at the conference – Mexican cartels that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/us/migrant-smuggling-evolution.html">engage in human and drug trafficking</a>. This includes groups that bring <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/china-and-synthetic-drugs-control-fentanyl-methamphetamines-and-precursors/">fentanyl – a drug</a> that is Chinese-manufactured or made from Chinese-produced chemicals – into the U.S.</p>
<p>Many speakers accurately noted the staggering number of <a href="https://nida.nih.gov/research-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates">fentanyl deaths</a> in the U.S., including over <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/202205.htm">100,000 overdose deaths</a> in 2021. But they did so in often apocalyptic terms. </p>
<p>They were <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/fentanyl-and-geopolitics-controlling-opioid-supply-from-china/">quick to blame the Biden administration</a>, ignoring that these issues have a long history and also existed under former President Donald Trump. </p>
<p>The crisis, CPAC speakers said, includes large numbers of undocumented migrants crossing the border – who they sometimes derogatorily referred to as “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/11/02/an-invasion-illegal-aliens-oldest-immigration-fear-mongering-metaphor-america/">illegal aliens</a>.” Oddly, those crossing the border were depicted both as victims of the violent cartels and as criminal and economic threats to Americans. </p>
<h2>American Marxism</h2>
<p>CPAC speakers and attendees spotlighted what they saw as equally dire demons lurking within the country. </p>
<p>“Radical leftist Marxists” – a stand-in for all Democrats – stood at the top of the list. These leftist radicals, CPAC speakers suggested, were intent on turning the U.S. into a socialist country like China in which the state controlled bodies and minds and quashed individual rights and freedoms.</p>
<p>The Democratic Party “<a href="https://rumble.com/v2bue8k-mark-and-julie-levins-full-appearance-at-cpac.html?mref=9yob">hates this country</a>,” Fox TV personality Mark Levin claimed on the CPAC stage. </p>
<p>“This American Marxist movement,” he continued, his voice raising, “took off big time during COVID” and then “rode the wave of Black Lives Matter, Antifa and the cop-hating, to advance this racist, Marxist, bigoted, socialist, anti-American agenda – which is everything today the Democrat Party today stands for!” </p>
<p>The crowd responded with loud applause and cheers – ignoring that these often repeated claims have <a href="https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/07/15/how-the-right-wing-convinces-itself-that-liberals-are-evil/">little basis in reality</a>. </p>
<h2>Wokism</h2>
<p>This anti-American agenda, Levin and other CPAC speakers argued, was <a href="https://www.nationalworld.com/whats-on/arts-and-entertainment/what-does-woke-mean-definition-woke-culture-2023-3215758">illustrated by “wokism</a>.”</p>
<p>Being woke generally means <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/woke">understanding societal issues like racial</a> and social justice. But CPAC speakers, who didn’t define the term, suggested that these efforts were really part of a “radical leftist” plot to control what people think and say – an idea that the right has derided as “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/18/woke-cancel-desantis-academics/">political correctness</a>” in the past.</p>
<h2>‘Transgenderism’</h2>
<p>There was also an emphasis on gender and the perceived threat of transgender people. Some of the anti-transgender sentiment was casual, <a href="https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1631769245498441729">such as when Rep. Gaetz quipped</a>, “We had to spend four, five days asking the Chinese spy balloon what its pronouns were before we were willing to shoot it down.” </p>
<p>Perhaps the most strident remarks were made by conservative political commentator Michael Knowles, who stated, “for the good of society … <a href="https://twitter.com/Esqueer_/status/1632088542837981185">transgenderism must be eradicated</a> from public life entirely.” </p>
<p>Despite his inflammatory language and use of “transgenderism,” a <a href="https://www.glaad.org/reference/trans-terms">derogatory term</a> suggesting that transgender people have “a condition,” Knowles received loud applause.</p>
<p>So, too, did other speakers who disparaged transgender identity – an issue that has become a culture wars flashpoint. </p>
<p>The Anti-Defamation League, among other human rights groups, has shown that the <a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/blog/what-grooming-truth-behind-dangerous-bigoted-lie-targeting-lgbtq-community">idea transgender people</a> are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/11/1096623939/accusations-grooming-political-attack-homophobic-origins">predatory “groomers</a>” or pedophiles is false and is being circulated by some Republicans only for political gain. </p>
<p>In March 2023, Tennessee became the first state to pass a law that restricts drag performances in the presence of children – a move that likely violates the First Amendment’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-tennessees-law-limiting-drag-performances-likely-violates-the-first-amendment-201126">free speech protection</a> and, in my view, is based on <a href="https://apnews.com/article/government-and-politics-a26e7eee15df0bbc2bb98071b683b1f4">fear, not facts</a>. Other Republican-led states are considering anti-drag legislation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large crowd of people look toward a screen that shows a white man in a dark suit. Next to the screen is a large American flag" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514552/original/file-20230309-18-zhkvr6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Guests listen to former President Donald Trump address the Conservative Political Action Conference as the headline speaker.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1471305270/photo/conservatives-attend-the-annual-cpac-event.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=zWagq1ThWllJ7ms-NvFBPVyIE6AzjqBrGbbX1osO7b4=">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The warrior</h2>
<p>By the time Trump took the stage, the CPAC crowd was primed. People danced and waved “TRUMP WAS RIGHT!” placards.</p>
<p>Trump offered an apocalyptic vision of the country’s future. </p>
<p>“Sinister forces” are seeking to turn the U.S. into a “lawless open-borders, <a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/trump-speaks-at-cpac-2023-transcript">crime-ridden, filthy, communist nightmare</a>,” Trump said.</p>
<p>Trump promised to fight back against these forces. “I am your warrior,” he told the adoring crowd. “I am your justice.” </p>
<h2>The rocky ride ahead</h2>
<p>I went to CPAC to find areas where the left and right might find common ground. Both sides worry about issues like inflation, fentanyl and crime. And, even as they may disagree on the path to get there, both want a better future for the country.</p>
<p>But politics is another demon lurking in the room. Most of the speakers at CPAC seemed to be there to rile up the crowd, which included many activists. </p>
<p>This was especially true of Trump, whose divisiveness was on clear display at CPAC. </p>
<p>All of this suggests the U.S. faces a rocky ride to the upcoming 2024 election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Hinton receives funding from The Center for Politics and Race in America at Rutgers University-Newark.</span></em></p>A scholar of extremism attended the CPAC meeting in March, in part to try to understand political polarization, and only saw signs of a worsening divide.Alexander Hinton, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology; Director, Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights, Rutgers University - NewarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1892462022-10-30T19:01:50Z2022-10-30T19:01:50ZThe rich, white powerbrokers in A.M. Homes’ new novel plot to be kingmakers – in the name of ‘democracy’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491279/original/file-20221024-23-v3onil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4385%2C2925&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julio Cortez/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The website of the <a href="https://americafirstsos.com/">America First Secretary of State Coalition</a> (“America First SOS”) doesn’t include the word “democracy” anywhere. It goes hard on “integrity”, mentioning “voter” and “election” integrity four times in about 800 words. But the Coalition isn’t interested in democracy. </p>
<p>America First SOS aims to get “America First” (that is, Trumpian Make America Great Again) Republicans elected as secretaries of state across key battleground states like Arizona and Nevada, precisely so they can <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/behind-the-campaign-to-put-election-deniers-in-charge-of-elections">influence or even change</a> election processes and outcomes in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential elections.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-republicans-split-from-trump-and-gop-elders-on-us-foreign-policy-3-charts-154234">America First</a> candidates will, if elected, “counter and reverse electoral fraud”. Their openly stated objective, in other words, is for state-level election officials to both reverse-engineer Trump’s election loss in 2020 (never mind that this is impossible) and ensure that he (or his favoured candidate) takes out the next one.</p>
<p>Across the United States, at every level of politics, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/04/us-democracy-attack-midterms-election-constitutional-crisis-2024">democracy is under attack</a>. America First SOS is just one example. While the November midterm elections are being treated by political analysts largely as a standard horse race, they are nothing of the sort. What happens in November will be a critical indicator of the strength of the United States’ political institutions. And the signs are not good.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Review: The Unfolding – A.M. Homes (Granta)</em></p>
<hr>
<p>“Democracy,” as one of the characters in A.M. Homes’ brilliant new novel puts it, “is fragile, more fragile than any of us are comfortable admitting”. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491267/original/file-20221024-1609-qlcwmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491267/original/file-20221024-1609-qlcwmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491267/original/file-20221024-1609-qlcwmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491267/original/file-20221024-1609-qlcwmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491267/original/file-20221024-1609-qlcwmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491267/original/file-20221024-1609-qlcwmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491267/original/file-20221024-1609-qlcwmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491267/original/file-20221024-1609-qlcwmm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/A.M.-Homes-Unfolding-9781783789146">The Unfolding</a> is fiction: a made-up story of American politics. But just like in the real United States, the lines between truth and fantasy are perilously thin. </p>
<p>Homes’ main character, the “Big Guy”, is a businessman and lifelong Republican – not unlike <a href="https://youtu.be/UjuDb8a3FCE">Jim Marchant</a>, the Republican candidate for secretary of state in Nevada and cofounder of America First SOS. </p>
<p>Both Marchant and Homes’ Big Guy came of age in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-reagans-notions-of-a-good-society-resonate-with-trump-supporters-today-149584">Ronald Reagan’s</a> America. They lived through the triumph of the end of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/during-the-cold-war-us-and-europe-were-just-as-divided-over-russia-sanctions-heres-how-it-played-out-179437">Cold War</a>, the blip of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-it-celebrates-its-25th-birthday-how-does-the-clinton-administration-look-today-89718">Clinton years</a>, then the Republican glory of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/james-bakers-masterful-legal-strategies-won-george-w-bush-a-contested-election-unlike-rudy-giulianis-string-of-losses-151087">2000 election</a> and the George W. Bush years. So they are accustomed to wielding power, and they do not take well to having that power threatened. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/american-exceptionalism-the-poison-that-cannot-protect-its-children-from-violent-death-184045">American exceptionalism: the poison that cannot protect its children from violent death</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Rich Republicans, ‘saving democracy’</h2>
<p>The Unfolding begins on election night, 2008. The Big Guy is in Phoenix, Arizona, attending <a href="https://theconversation.com/john-mccain-dead-at-81-helped-build-a-country-that-no-longer-reflects-his-values-97054">John McCain’s</a> election night party. In the book, it’s always “Phoenix” – not the election, not the fact that </p>
<blockquote>
<p>a Black man just got elected president of the United States. Oh my fucking god. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>It’s “Phoenix” that was “the tipping point”. Because in the book – as in so much of real politics – the experiences of rich, old white men are almost always centred. </p>
<p>The book follows the Big Guy from the night of November 4 2008, until January 20, 2009 – President Obama’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/obama-defends-progressive-vision-in-inauguration-address-11728">inauguration</a> day – as he and his network of other rich Republican men construct intricate and secretive plans to, as they see it, save American democracy. </p>
<p>The Big Guy and his network never really explain how it is that “democracy” is under threat, because they know that it isn’t, not really (not in 2008, anyway). What is under threat is power – specifically, the power of rich men to control American politics. As one of the Big Guy’s interlocutors puts it to him: “That’s the part that makes you really anxious, the idea that old white men will be obsolete.” The Big Guy replies, “You’re not wrong.”</p>
<p>Outside the context of the novel, this dialogue might seem a little ham-fisted, and it is. But therein lies its genius. Homes’ ability to tap into the language of American politics, history and culture – its simultaneous complexity and embarrassing simplicity – is astounding in its brilliance. </p>
<p>Homes’ capture, through fiction, of the backlash to the election of Barack Obama and its continuing reverberations, is the greatest strength of this book. That backlash (or, more accurately, “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/10/the-first-white-president-ta-nehisi-coates/537909/">whitelash</a>”) is responsible for Trump and so many white Americans’ embrace of, in President Biden’s real-life words, “<a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/08/biden-condemns-gop-semi-fascism">semi-fascism</a>”. </p>
<p>To Homes’ characters, living in the period between Bush’s election loss and the inauguration of the first Black president, “It’s not just that Obama won, it’s as though the founding fathers were assassinated.” They felt (and perhaps still feel) they’d watched </p>
<blockquote>
<p>a generation of hard work flushed down the toilet. That’s what it is – it’s not four years, it’s not nothing, it’s an entire generation of men who worked to build this country and now it’s flushed, that’s what happened.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Big Guy can hardly bear it; he’s watching his worlds, political and personal, collapse around him. To his like-minded friends, he insists that “each of us has worked too hard to leave this earth without having made a lasting impression”. </p>
<p>The Big Guy and his network are distraught, too, because “there is no succession plan – there is nothing in place to say who will run the world after they are gone”. They don’t have any sons. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jared-kushners-memoir-is-a-self-serving-account-of-a-heros-triumphs-but-contains-a-great-deal-of-fascinating-detail-189981">Jared Kushner's memoir is a self-serving account of a hero's triumphs but contains a great deal of fascinating detail</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Personal and political crises</h2>
<p>This mingling of the personal and the political finds life in one of the book’s best characters, the Big Guy’s teenage daughter, Meghan. She, too, is shaken by the events of November 2008, as everything she thought she knew – about her country, and her own life – begins to fall down around her. </p>
<p>Meghan’s navigation of these dual crises, and her own changing identity, often finds its own expression in historical thinking. Both she and the Big Guy love American history; they’re obsessed by it. </p>
<p>One of their favourite games is exchanging obscure facts about the Big Guy’s favourite president, George Washington. They have made a family tradition of visiting historical landmarks. But it’s in these places where Meghan’s uncertainty grows. Driving past the site of <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-politics-explainer-the-assassination-of-john-f-kennedy-100449">President John F. Kennedy’s assassination</a>, Meghan wonders if </p>
<blockquote>
<p>the grassy knoll is less of a hill or a mound, and more of a bump, or at this point in time – a blip? Is that true or has the scale of things changed? Does a place compact and get smaller over time? Does history shrink?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Meghan’s complex musings on the nature of history, her “fear that truth is an elusive thing, that history is not fixed in time and space but subject to fluctuation and interpretation and to the possibility that there are other stories”, stands in stark contrast to her father’s more insistent, one-dimensional view of the past and the present. While Meghan wants “to make history, to live in history, and to be the history of the future”, her father is more interested in controlling it. </p>
<p>Musing on the very first president, and his decision to step down after two terms, the Big Guy waxes lyrical on Washington’s selflessness, his patriotism, and his refusal to be “a king”. “What did America not want to be?” asks the Big Guy. “A kingdom.”</p>
<p>The Big Guy, consciously or not, exposes the contradiction at the heart of American power. The Big Guy and his friends don’t want a king, but they do want to be kingmakers. They don’t want democracy, not really. Or perhaps they do, but they want the version <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-george-washington-made-america-great-again-71194">George Washington</a> lived – a democracy reserved for rich, white men. The way, as they see it, American democracy was originally conceived. </p>
<p>If this sounds familiar, that’s because it is. The Unfolding cuts to the heart of a broken American politics. It’s billed as a “black comedy”, but I never once found the book funny. It was far too real, and too brilliant in its fictional diagnosis of American malaise. Homes captures the horror and the stupidity of American power.</p>
<p>Throughout the book, we’re never really sure if the Big Guy and his network can be taken seriously. When they say meaningless things like, “Our plan will be organized around the concept of rings of power and authority with an inner circle”, are we to believe that this is a brilliant organisational strategy? Are these men executing a supremely complex game of <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/evaaym/is-trump-really-playing-3d-chess-we-asked-the-masters">three-dimensional chess</a>? Or are they just rich, mediocre-but-entitled white men exploiting a system that was always rigged in their favour? Maybe it’s both. </p>
<p>Will the Big Guy’s network succeed in their plans? Will America First SOS succeed? Will Trump come back? Will American democracy collapse? Has it already? </p>
<p>The Unfolding opens with the oft-repeated line, “It can’t happen here.” (“It”, in this case, being the fall of the United States to fascism, riffing off another work of fiction, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/getting-close-to-fascism-with-sinclair-lewiss-it-cant-happen-here">Sinclair Lewis’s titular 1935 novel</a>.) As the lines between fantasy and reality increasingly blur, A.M. Homes offers us a brilliant, frightening reminder that “it” just might happen. Or that either way, “there’s shit on the horizon.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Shortis is an associate member of the Independent and Peaceful Australia Network (IPAN). </span></em></p>The Unfolding is fiction: a made-up story of American politics. But just like in the real United States, the lines between truth and fantasy in this novel are perilously thin.Emma Shortis, Lecturer, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1542342021-02-12T13:19:06Z2021-02-12T13:19:06ZYoung Republicans split from Trump and GOP elders on US foreign policy: 3 charts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383860/original/file-20210211-15-1uckzlw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C168%2C4709%2C3403&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In a post-Trump era, the GOP must decide which of the former president's policies to keep – and which to scrap.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-photo-illustration-donald-trump-supporters-election-news-photo/1256649175?adppopup=true">Leonard Ortiz/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>No matter the outcome of Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, the Republican Party must now decide whether to maintain or abandon Trump-era policies during the Biden administration. Among them is Trump’s “<a href="https://prod-cdn-static.gop.com/docs/Resolution_Platform_2020.pdf">America First</a>” foreign policy agenda. </p>
<p>Trump portrayed the United States as a dominant, self-sufficient <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2074985/trump-touts-military-rebuilding-space-force-strikes-against-terror/">world leader</a> that needs little but subservience from other countries. He was <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/06047bc5-81dd-4475-8678-4b3181d53877">skeptical of trade and hostile to China</a>, and he eschewed global diplomacy in favor of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/08/trump-vows-north-korea-will-be-met-with-fire-and-fury-if-threats-continue/">military saber-rattling</a>.</p>
<p>That may not be the future of GOP foreign policy, according to <a href="https://jonathansschulman.com">my political science research</a>. I analyzed four surveys taken during the Trump administration asking Americans about foreign policy issues. Breaking down responses by both party and age, I found that younger Republicans diverge from Trump’s “<a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-foreign-policy-is-still-america-first-what-does-that-mean-exactly-144841">America First</a>” agenda.</p>
<p>In fact, on some foreign policy issues, from China to trade, young Republicans are closer on the ideological spectrum to the Democratic mainstream than to their Republican elders.</p>
<h2>1. Globalization</h2>
<p>Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/12/trump-is-a-new-kind-of-protectionist-he-operates-in-stealth-mode/">espoused economic protectionism</a> and demonstrated a general <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/10/28/how-globalism-became-the-boogeyman-of-2016/">aversion to trade and other aspects of economic globalization</a>. But young Republicans don’t necessarily feel the same way, according to a <a href="https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/public-opinion-survey/2017-chicago-council-survey">2017 survey from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs</a>.</p>
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<p>Despite Trump’s description of the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, as “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-us-mexico-canada-remarks-oct-18/h_2c0a8c6bad4dc7a2f98acda7c57ea454">perhaps the worst trade deal ever made</a>,” half of Republicans under 35 view it as good for the U.S. economy. </p>
<p>Republicans 35 and older were more inclined toward Trump’s position: Only one-third thought it was good for the economy.</p>
<p>Among Democrats surveyed by the Chicago Council, approval of NAFTA was above 70% for all age groups.</p>
<h2>2. China</h2>
<p>The surveys showed general bipartisan agreement across all age groups that the United States is militarily superior to China. </p>
<p>But younger Republicans were nearly twice as likely as older ones to believe that China has a stronger economy than the United States – 43% for Republicans under 35 versus 23% for those 35 and older, according to the Chicago Council survey.</p>
<p>Recognition of China’s economic power, however, does not lead younger GOP members to demonstrate a Trump-style hostility toward China. In <a href="https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/05/7ab2e761-Fox_May-17-20-2020_Complete_National_Topline_May-21-Release.pdf">Fox News’ May 2020 poll</a>, 42% of Republicans under 35 identified China as the “worst enemy of the United States.” Among Republicans 35 and older, 60% did.</p>
<p>Age-based differences of opinion on China translate into age-based policy preferences among Republicans. The vast majority of older Republicans – 81% – supported Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-guide-to-how-the-china-us-trade-war-will-affect-your-holiday-shopping-128586">punishing tariffs on Chinese imports</a>, a <a href="https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/public-opinion-survey/2019-chicago-council-survey">2019 Chicago Council survey</a> found. Just 60% of Republicans under 35 agreed. </p>
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<p>Democrats were mostly consistent on attitudes toward China. Around 1 in 5 view China as the worst enemy of the United States regardless of age; around 1 in 4 support raising tariffs on Chinese imports. </p>
<h2>3. Defense spending</h2>
<p>When it comes to funding for the U.S. military and national defense, both parties show a generational divide. </p>
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<p>In the Chicago Council’s 2017 survey, 64% of Republicans 35 and older said national defense spending should be expanded. Just 40% of Republicans under 35 agreed.</p>
<p>Few Democrats of any age think defense spending should be expanded, and some young Democrats diverge from party elders in thinking the defense budget should be cut. Half of Democrats under 35 would cut defense spending, and one-third of older Democrats would.</p>
<h2>A more bipartisan future?</h2>
<p>I study the political views of young people to shine a light on where American foreign policy may be headed in the coming years and decades. </p>
<p>Young Americans are voting and running for national office at historic rates. The <a href="https://www.millennialaction.org/millennials-on-the-rise-in-congress">number of millennial congressional candidates</a> nearly tripled between 2018 and 2020, according to the <a href="https://www.millennialaction.org/">Millennial Action Project</a>. In last year’s election, 251 candidates for Congress were age 45 or younger; 97 of those young candidates were Republicans. </p>
<p>As more young candidates start to win and occupy office, their views will influence the policy agendas of their party in the post-Trump era. </p>
<p>The surveys I studied show that younger Republicans hold more centrist attitudes on economic globalization, China and defense spending than party elders. In a political climate defined by intense polarization, this data may hint at a slow trend toward more bipartisan agreement on <a href="https://theconversation.com/bidens-long-foreign-policy-record-signals-how-hell-reverse-trump-rebuild-old-alliances-and-lead-the-pandemic-response-143671">certain foreign policy issues</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Schulman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>‘America First’ may not be long for this world. Surveys show many GOP members under 35 are closer to Democrats on China, trade and defense spending.Jonathan Schulman, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1511172021-01-17T08:51:01Z2021-01-17T08:51:01ZTrump is out, but US evangelicalism remains alive and well in Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372246/original/file-20201201-13-56tvbx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An evangelical outreach in Uganda led by the prominent and wealthy pastor Robert Kayanja.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">WALTER ASTRADA/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the day before the 2020 US presidential election, Reverend Kenneth Meshoe, the leader of the <a href="https://www.acdp.org.za">African Christian Democratic Party</a> in South Africa, <a href="https://twitter.com/RevMeshoe/status/1323260838468345856">tweeted</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Please pray… for President Donald Trump to be re-elected…. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>It seems bizarre that a black African Christian would support an overt <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/7/25/12270880/donald-trump-racist-racism-history">racist</a> who disdains people who come from “<a href="https://theintercept.com/2018/06/28/trump-tps-shithole-countries-lawsuit/">shithole countries</a>”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1323260838468345856"}"></div></p>
<p>Meshoe exemplifies a type of political and theological reasoning among African evangelical Christians. He was <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/opinion/2020-11-09-rob-rose-how-kenneth-meshoe-was-duped-by-the-trump-myth/">praying</a> for Trump’s victory because he echoes the views of many African evangelicals in relation to human sexuality, reproductive rights (anti-abortion), nationalism and capitalism. For example, Bishop Mark Kariuki of the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/EAKenya/">Evangelical Alliance of Kenya</a> claimed that a Trump victory would be a vote in favour of “good morals”. </p>
<p>According to Harvard researcher Damaris Parsitau, such views <a href="https://www.theelephant.info/long-reads/2020/11/20/african-evangelicals-and-president-trump/">are shared</a> by evangelical leaders in Nigeria, Ghana, Liberia and Uganda. </p>
<p>How could this be?</p>
<p>The support of African evangelicals points to a bizarre cocktail of politics, economics and religion on the continent, which could have long-lasting negative consequences.</p>
<h2>The dangers of Trumpism</h2>
<p>Trump may be leaving, but the thinking that brought him to power, “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/23/trump-will-go-trumpism-will-remain/">Trumpism</a>”, is alive and well among the world’s fastest-growing Christian community – African evangelicals. “Trumpism” loosely denotes views on identity politics, nationalisms of various kinds and a series of reason-defying beliefs. Fuelled by secretive global organisations such as <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/qanon-trump-timeline-conspiracy-theorists-1076279/">QAnon</a>, there is also a strong dose of science denialism about <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/trump-put-climate-denier-charge-key-us-report">climate change</a> and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/trump-covid-denial/616946/">COVID-19</a>.</p>
<p>Sadly, it is the world’s poorest citizens, among them Africans, who suffer most from the effects of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-50726701">climate change</a>, US trade policies that <a href="https://kingcenter.stanford.edu/system/files/The%20Impact%20of%20Trade%20on%20Inequality%20in%20Developing%20Countries.pdf">increase global inequalities</a>, racism and sexism. </p>
<p>Christians from historical traditions around the world have been <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0040571X19843746">deeply critical</a> of the ways in which evangelical Christians have supported Trump. Yet Trumpism has established deep roots among <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0040571X19843746">African evangelical Christianities</a>.</p>
<p>This is <a href="https://www.counterpointknowledge.org/understanding-the-influence-of-contemporary-evangelical-christianities/">very concerning</a>. We have seen black evangelicals <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/political-parties-divided-over-blacklivesmatter/">undermining</a> racial justice campaigns like <a href="https://www.adl.org/education/educator-resources/lesson-plans/black-lives-matter-from-hashtag-to-movement">#BlackLivesMatter</a>. They have <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2012-06-29-sas-very-own-made-in-israel-war-of-words/">pressured</a> their governments to support the state of Israel, despite its atrocious human rights record in Palestine. And many fall in step with <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0040571X19843746">American evangelical theology</a> on the denial of <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/vg/lgbti-faq.html#:%7E:text=Lesbian%2C%20Gay%2C%20Bisexual%2C%20Transgender%20and%20Intersex%20(LGBTI)%20FAQ">LGBTI</a> rights and the curtailing of women’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/americas-right-is-lobbying-against-south-africas-sex-education-syllabus-126356">reproductive rights</a>. </p>
<p>Many African evangelicals uncritically adopt <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-white-victimhood-and-the-south-african-far-right-73400">rightwing nationalist</a> views and buy into dangerous <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2020/10/09/from-the-us-to-sa-qanon-sows-panic-with-child-trafficking-misinformation">conspiracy theories</a>.</p>
<h2>The spread of American evangelicalism</h2>
<p>How did African evangelicals adopt this brand of politically infused American Christianity so uncritically? As theologian Tony Balcomb <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0256-95072016000200002">explains</a>, American evangelicalism:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>resonates both with the spirituality of Africa and the materialism and individualism of modernity.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Experiential religion – characterised by healing, miracles and visions – <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=uO29DwAAQBAJ&pg=PR17&dq=mndende+freedom+of+religion+forster+gerle&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiwqomVr6XtAhUVuHEKHYUpDqsQ6AEwAHoECAMQAg#v=onepage&q=mndende&f=false">is part of</a> the African religious experience. It predates the arrival of Christian missionaries.</p>
<p><a href="https://africa.thegospelcoalition.org/article/history-christianity-africa/">“Third wave”</a> evangelical Christianity arrived in Africa from the US in the early 1900s. At the time it was more appealing than the dry and reasoned “second wave” faith brought earlier by Catholic and Reformed missionaries.</p>
<p>In addition, the arrival of US evangelicalism coincided with the historical emergence of materialism and individualism, which characterise modernity. This led many African Christians to adopt the <a href="https://wiser.wits.ac.za/system/files/seminar/Bafford2019.pdf">economically abusive practices</a> of <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/9/1/15951874/prosperity-gospel-explained-why-joel-osteen-believes-prayer-can-make-you-rich-trump">prosperity doctrine</a> preachers.</p>
<p>They claim that wealth is the will of God and frequently <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africans-are-prone-to-falling-for-charlatans-in-the-church-112879">scam and impoverish</a> some of the poorest African communities. They were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/opinions/outlook/worst-ideas/prosperity-gospel.html">taught this</a> by <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/kenneth-copeland-biden-trump-election-b1719273.html">American Christians</a>.</p>
<p>Lastly, African evangelical ministries are <a href="https://www.theelephant.info/long-reads/2020/11/20/african-evangelicals-and-president-trump/">funded</a> from the US. In addition, many were trained in the US or by US organisations. Meshoe, for example, <a href="https://elections.thesouthafrican.com/political-leaders/political-leader-kenneth-meshoe-african-christian-democratic-party-acdp/">studied</a> at an evangelical school in Tennessee. Moreover, funding for Africa is often threatened if the moral and political standards of high ranking American evangelical <a href="https://www.netflix.com/za/title/80063867">politicians and lobbyists</a> are not adhered to.</p>
<h2>The American Dream is a global nightmare</h2>
<p>American evangelicalism has always been <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24460416">allied</a> to the notion of “The American Dream” and the myth of the founding of America. This political theology claims that God established the US as an “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21598282.2020.1779527">exceptional</a>” nation that overcame tyranny with God’s help through the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/American-Revolution">American Revolution</a>.</p>
<p>Since then, it has been spreading its <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24460416?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents">ideology</a> globally – often using evangelicalism to do so. “God bless America” is a well-known phrase. In the minds of many Americans, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24460416">God is on their side</a> and wants America to succeed over all other nations. </p>
<p>Trump’s “America first” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2017/01/20/donald-trumps-inaugural-speech-may-be-his-most-religious-yet/">inaugural speech</a> exemplified this exceptionalism. Paul White’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2017/01/20/donald-trumps-inaugural-speech-may-be-his-most-religious-yet/">prayer</a> at the inauguration summed up this religiously infused political exceptionalism:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Let these United States of America be that beacon of hope to all people and nations under your dominion, a true hope for humankind …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Trump’s God is an <a href="https://religionandpolitics.org/2020/09/29/white-evangelicals-and-the-new-american-exceptionalism-of-donald-trump/">American God</a>, seeking to spread American values, politics and economic ideals across the world. But the God of historical Christianity does not prefer Americans over other nations.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theelephant.info/long-reads/2020/11/20/african-evangelicals-and-president-trump/">Religion, politics and money</a> are deeply intertwined among Trump-supporting African evangelicals – and dangerously so. American evangelicalism is part of the “software” that allows the “hardware” of American exceptionalism to spread throughout the world.</p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pentecostals-and-the-spiritual-war-against-coronavirus-in-africa-137424">Pentecostals and the spiritual war against coronavirus in Africa</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many African evangelical leaders receive funding from US bodies. Many fall in line with the Trump government’s views on abortion, homosexuality, science and Christian Zionism. Like their American evangelical counterparts, they are also learning to <a href="https://www.theelephant.info/long-reads/2020/11/20/african-evangelicals-and-president-trump/">put pressure</a> on their governments. But the values of white, middle class US evangelicals are at odds with the freedoms sought by Africans.</p>
<p>To free Africa from Trumpism, African scholars and thinkers must critically examine the influence of American evangelicalism on the growing number of African evangelicals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151117/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dion Forster receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation. </span></em></p>African evangelism is born from – and often funded by – American evangelism, and with it comes a damaging cocktail of rightwing ideologies, especially during the Donald Trump years.Dion Forster, Professor of Public Theology in the Department of Beliefs and Practices, Faculty of Theology, at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (Free University of Amsterdam), Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1515342020-12-11T05:42:18Z2020-12-11T05:42:18ZBiden’s chance to revive US tradition of inserting ethics in foreign policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374266/original/file-20201210-18-1mfkggs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4486%2C2991&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Biden's is entrusting Secretary of State nominee Antony Blinken to set U.S. foreign policy on a different course.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/secretary-of-state-nominee-antony-blinken-speaks-after-news-photo/1229769415?adppopup=true">Mark Makela/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump’s foreign policy has, in the judgment of many analysts, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/760b6144-a740-11ea-92e2-cbd9b7e28ee6">damaged U.S. moral standing</a> around the world. During four years of “America First,” the Trump administration has gotten cozy with governments that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14754835.2020.1809362">disdain human rights norms and laws</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-muslim-travel-ban-immigration-6ce8554f-05bd-467b-b3c2-ea4876f7773a.html">restricted immigration on the basis of religion</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117820965656">withdrawn from treaties</a> aimed to bolster international well-being.</p>
<p>Joe Biden has <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/17/trump-biden-battle-for-blue-collar-voters-will-revive-trade-debate-192270">promised to set a different course</a>, to “reclaim” America’s “position as the moral and economic leader of the world.” Doing so might be vital as the U.S. competes for international influence against rival powers China and Russia.</p>
<p>What strikes me, <a href="https://www.bu.edu/polisci/people/faculty/mayers/">a scholar of history and foreign policy</a>, is that this Biden orientation aligns with one of the vivid strands in U.S. tradition: to apply American versions of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness in the conception and implementation of foreign policy. This <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-needs-american-idealism-again-11605882637">American “idealism”</a> has not only fortified U.S. security, but has also helped smooth the jagged edges of international politics. </p>
<h2>Society of nations</h2>
<p>Washington has periodically tried over the decades to improve the quality and tone of the “international society” – defined by <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/bull-hedley-norman-175">scholar Hedley Bull</a> as the common set of rules, both informal and codified, <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-349-24028-9">by which states are bound</a>.</p>
<p>Less coherent or robust than domestic structures of laws and norms, “international society” has been, and remains, a fragile and somewhat amorphous concept. Yet, as theorized by scholars like Bull, “international society” has always had a tangible aspect. It draws states into occasional cooperation, mediated by treaties, laws, diplomatic traditions, customs and transnational institutions. </p>
<p>In contrast, the current administration has used foreign policy as a tool for a narrowly defined transactional national interest, in accordance with Trump’s “America First” agenda.</p>
<p>But a more elevated approach appears throughout U.S. history.</p>
<p>Francis Lieber numbered among the <a href="http://doi.org/10.1093/law/9780199599752.003.0058">earlier proponents of practices</a> to mitigate wartime suffering. A German-American political-legal thinker, Lieber advanced ideas in the 1860s regarding the humane treatment of enemy prisoners and wounded soldiers.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=661&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374250/original/file-20201210-15-18srhum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=831&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Blowing bubbles – a cartoonist’s verdict on Woodrow Wilson’s attempt at international cooperation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/blowing-bubbles-woodrow-wilson-and-the-league-of-nations-news-photo/1175739672?adppopup=true">Fine Art Images/Heritage Images via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>In the 20th century, attempts to bring ethics into foreign policy were made by successive U.S. presidents. President Woodrow Wilson in 1919 <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1914-1920/league">promoted the League of Nations</a>, which he conceived as an institutional guarantor of world order and peace. And American diplomats played a prominent role in the 1928 outlawing of war through the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/kellogg">quixotic Kellogg-Briand Pact</a>.</p>
<p>President Franklin Roosevelt in January 1941 asserted that people everywhere were entitled to four fundamental freedoms – freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom from want and freedom from fear. He later proved an <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9780230609389">insistent and effective advocate for creating the United Nations</a>.</p>
<p>This desire to improve the tone and quality of “international society” persisted into the post-World War II era. <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/nuremberg-judges/">American jurists were involved</a> in the Nuremberg inquests into Nazi atrocities. The trials were in large part convened to salvage and reassert the meaningfulness of civilized standards of conduct in world affairs.</p>
<p>Former first lady Eleanor Roosevelt played a leading role in the formulation of the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/">1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights</a>. And <a href="https://news.un.org/en/tags/raphael-lemkin">Raphael Lemkin</a>, a Polish-born Jewish lawyer who found permanent refuge in the United States, became the main architect of the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide-convention.shtml">1948 Genocide Convention</a>.</p>
<h2>Kissinger to Carter</h2>
<p>In recent decades, the most lucid expression by a president on ethics and foreign policy came from Jimmy Carter. To help expunge the stain of the Vietnam War and counter the influence of <a href="https://www.henryakissinger.com/">former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s</a> stark <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2016/03/16/book-review-realpolitik-a-history-by-john-bew/">realpolitik</a>, Carter <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7709.2004.00400.x">promoted human rights as a U.S. foreign policy goal</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger (left) and President Jimmy Carter talk in the White House's Oval Office, Washington DC, August 15, 1977" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374247/original/file-20201210-20-qa4iqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Two very different approaches to foreign policy: Kissinger and Carter.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-us-secretary-of-state-henry-kissinger-and-president-news-photo/1287669399?adppopup=true">Benjamin E. 'Gene' Forte/CNP/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>According to Carter, and echoing the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7709.2004.00400.x">human rights included both political and material rights</a>. On the political side, this meant the right to be free from abuse and torture, arbitrary arrest, random imprisonment or denial of a fair public trial. In the Carter definition, human rights also encompassed religious freedom, freedom of speech, freedom of press and access to education. On the material side, human rights entailed fulfillment of basics, notably food, shelter, decent employment and health care.</p>
<p>To Carter, U.S. policy needed to be “rooted in our moral values” and “<a href="https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/short-history/carter">designed to serve mankind</a>.” In practical terms this meant an end to ignoring human rights transgressions by allies, as in the case of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09592290903577775">South Africa’s apartheid regime</a>, and terminating U.S. military support of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1979/02/09/us-retaliates-against-somoza-cuts-back-aidus-cuts-back-aid-to-nicaragua/0dedf7f9-6dbc-401c-9101-e5c4479d19e1/">Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza</a>.</p>
<p>Albeit <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137598738_1">ridiculed by “realist” skeptics at the time</a> and later for amounting to empty piety, or dismissed by others as merely cloaking the structures of power, these proclamations and actions – from Lieber to Carter – nonetheless <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/3791726">helped create the modern international order</a>. Collectively, they constitute the intermittent triumph of hopefulness against despair and infamy. </p>
<h2>Retreat from the world</h2>
<p>The disorientation and anxiety caused by the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks led to a U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316493939">retreat from building a world order</a> that, however partial and imperfectly realized, had stimulated the moral imagination of many Americans. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/iraq-and-afghanistan-the-us-6-trillion-bill-for-americas-longest-war-is-unpaid-78241">wars in Iraq and Afghanistan</a> – and by extension, drone attacks in Pakistan – inflicted devastation and disruption incompatible with America’s alleged mission, namely promoting the welfare of people in those afflicted countries and safeguarding U.S. safety. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2004/05/10/torture-at-abu-ghraib">horrors of Abu Ghraib</a> and the <a href="https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/handle/2152/28112">rendition of prisoners to secret sites</a> where they endured water boarding and other torture caused the United States to forfeit much of the good will it had accumulated over decades.</p>
<p>This diminished U.S. stature was compounded under Trump by the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/21/us/migrant-children-separated.html">spectacle of children being separated from parents</a> along the Southern border and by moves to disengage from the international community – such as <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31527-0/fulltext">withdrawing from the World Health Organization</a> and the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-exits-paris-climate-accord-after-trump-stalls-global-warming-action-for-four-years/">Paris climate agreement</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Biden’s administration faces the daunting task of rehabilitating U.S. standing. In the ongoing competitions for influence and power between America, China and Russia, the retrieval of U.S. ethical traditions may prove vital.</p>
<p>Incoming <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/22/us/politics/biden-antony-blinken-secretary-of-state.html">Secretary of State Antony Blinken</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/27/jake-sullivan-biden-national-security-440814">National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan</a> and <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/529402-gumbo-diplomacy-and-the-rise-of-linda-thomas-greenfield">Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield</a> appear determined to rebuild America’s reputation. Their success or failure could affect not only U.S. well-being but also the character of “international society” for coming decades. Moderation, restraint and ethical clarity have been in short supply since 2001, but they might be replenished if the Biden team dips back into America’s tradition of inserting an ethical component in foreign policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151534/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Mayers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Four years of ‘America First’ has seen the US retreat from the world. But as a scholar of international relations explains, Biden could return Washington to the role of a more moral global leader.David Mayers, Professor of History and Political Science, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1493402020-12-04T13:30:10Z2020-12-04T13:30:10ZWhy Biden will find it hard to undo Trump’s costly ‘America first’ trade policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372857/original/file-20201203-21-7nl64t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=182%2C239%2C6208%2C4167&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Biden says his Cabinet picks will help him restore American leadership in the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-elect-joe-biden-speaks-during-a-cabinet-news-photo/1229768384">Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since becoming president-elect, Joe Biden has signaled that <a href="https://joebiden.com/americanleadership/">restoring America’s leadership</a> on the world stage is among his highest priorities – an intention <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-politics-susan-rice-national-security-06a33397de673043360ba6b5fd78af8a">aptly demonstrated</a> by his Cabinet picks.</p>
<p>Biden’s nominees are “ready to lead the world, not retreat from it,” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/24/us/joe-biden-trump">he said on Nov. 24</a>. “America is back.”</p>
<p>Perhaps nowhere is this return more urgent than in trade policy, a topic I follow closely as a <a href="https://cas.gsu.edu/profile/charles-hankla/">scholar of international political economy</a>. Over the past four years, President Donald Trump has <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-tpp-and-can-the-us-get-back-in-95028">ripped up trade deals</a>, launched <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/us-china-trade-war-implications-effects-impact-trump-us-election-13382878">damaging trade wars</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-go-it-alone-approach-to-china-trade-ignores-wtos-better-way-to-win-93918">gunked up</a> the workings of international trade organizations. </p>
<p>All of this <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html">has ceded global economic leadership</a> to China, as we can see from the trade negotiations Beijing recently oversaw with 14 other Asian nations. In November, the countries met in China’s capital and formally signed what is now the world’s largest regional free trade pact, covering nearly a third of humanity.</p>
<p>Biden <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again">no doubt longs to return</a> to some semblance of the “golden era” of U.S. leadership, the half-century following World War II when <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2200/RR2226/RAND_RR2226.pdf">America helped create</a> and sustain the rules and institutions that fueled globalization. </p>
<p>But after four years of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/world/trump-us-global-leadership-election-analysis-intl/index.html">Trump’s “retreat,”</a> it may be harder to return to leading than Biden thinks – thanks to the growing number of Americans on both the right and the left who are skeptical of free trade. </p>
<h2>The costs of ‘America first’</h2>
<p>While Trump advocated a trade policy he labeled “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-america-first-mean-for-american-economic-interests-71931">America first</a>,” it’s probably not the best description. </p>
<p>The policy has involved applying <a href="https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/the-total-cost-of-trumps-new-tariffs/">punitive tariffs</a> on specific products such as steel and aluminum and on whole countries – most notably China – at a scale not seen in decades. But the price to the U.S. has been high.</p>
<p>Trump’s tariffs have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-economy/trumps-tariffs-cost-u-s-companies-46-billion-to-date-data-shows-idUSKBN1Z8222">cost American businesses</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2019/09/09/trump-tariffs-will-soon-cost-us-families-thousands-of-dollars-a-year/?sh=3cb94cca5b4b">consumers</a> tens of billions of dollars. And they have seriously hurt <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/business/economy/trump-china-trade-war-farmers.html">U.S. farmers</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-tariffs/trumps-tariffs-add-to-pandemic-induced-turmoil-of-u-s-manufacturers-idUSKBN22C1MY">manufacturers</a> by closing off export markets for American products in China and elsewhere. Moreover, the administration <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-us-farmers-remain-loyal-to-trump-despite-pain-from-trade-wars-and-covid-19-146535">has spent tens of billions more</a> trying to aid farmers harmed by the tariffs. </p>
<p>Putting Americans first was also the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-regarding-withdrawal-united-states-trans-pacific-partnership-negotiations-agreement/">stated reason</a> behind the president’s decision to withdraw from trade deals like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-tpp-and-can-the-us-get-back-in-95028">Trans-Pacific Partnership</a> and focus on bilateral rather than multilateral agreements. Aside from denying American companies the benefits free trade pacts provide, this also has meant the U.S. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-business/trump-pulls-u-s-out-of-pacific-trade-deal-loosening-asia-ties-idUSKBN1571FD">increasingly sits on the sidelines</a> when global trade rules are being written.</p>
<p>That’s bad news for America because even when rules apply only to the trade agreement in question, they generally serve as a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jiel/article-abstract/20/2/365/3865559">foundation for future deals</a> – including negotiations exclusively with the U.S. So if the U.S. government isn’t at the table, it could have long-term ramifications. </p>
<p>In America’s stead, other powerhouses will seek to dictate the terms of trade with U.S. allies, as Beijing did with the trade accord it signed in November. And Chinese interests – on the environment, labor standards and especially intellectual property protection – are not the same as those of the U.S. </p>
<h2>Biden and the populist right</h2>
<p>So there are very strong reasons to reengage with the world. Global trade may even be key to <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/trade-policy-can-lead-covid-19-economic-recovery">helping the U.S. recover</a> from the coronavirus pandemic. But to do so, Biden will have to navigate two groups that could be a thorn in his side. </p>
<p>The first is the <a href="https://items.ssrc.org/democracy-papers/return-with-a-vengeance-working-class-anger-and-the-rise-of-populism/">populist right</a> – conservative, mostly working-class voters who warmed to Trump’s anti-trade platform in 2016. </p>
<p>Like Trump, they tend to see trade through a nationalist lens in which the “winner takes all.” That is, they understand trade <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-trump-hates-imports-and-why-thats-bananas-2019-09-06">not as beneficial</a> for all parties but rather as a competition that can be won or lost based on who’s <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/24/trump-trade-war-china-europe-deficit/">running a trade surplus</a> or who’s gaining or losing market share. </p>
<p>Furthermore, as the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2018/11/education-gap-explains-american-politics/575113/">base of the Republican Party</a> increasingly <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/in-changing-u-s-electorate-race-and-education-remain-stark-dividing-lines/">shifts to encompass</a> less educated white voters, this has critical implications for the GOP. <a href="https://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2008/06/stolper-samuelson-for-the-real-world.html">Basic trade theory</a> suggests that, in a rich country such as the United States, lower-skilled workers are hurt by free trade, while skilled workers and capitalists get most of the benefits. This is because lower-income countries will have a comparative advantage in lower-skilled labor.</p>
<p>Many <a href="https://www.prri.org/spotlight/tpp-free-trade-agreements/">working-class voters</a> are understandably feeling left behind by this new economy and ignored by the government. Free trade has become a target of their ire, helping drive the Republican Party’s shift toward nationalism – and protectionism – and shoving aside the traditional pro-business conservatives. </p>
<p>If <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/georgia-senate-runoff-2021-latest-race-updates-and-polls">Republicans manage to hold onto</a> the Senate in January, it’s very likely that the growing power of the populist right will continue to influence trade skepticism in the party. This would tie Biden’s hands when it comes to negotiating new trade deals or taking other steps that will require Senate approval. </p>
<p>But even if Democrats manage to take the Senate, Biden will likely still need to court these working-class, mostly white voters when he seeks to maintain his congressional majorities in the midterms. Either way, they will remain a potent force well after Trump is gone. </p>
<h2>The protectionist left</h2>
<p>But the populist right is not the only important part of the U.S. political spectrum that is skeptical of trade. </p>
<p>The populist left – <a href="https://berniesanders.com/issues/fair-trade/">led especially by Sen. Bernie Sanders</a> – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321717723505">has long favored</a> limiting foreign trade. Its motivations are somewhat different, focused more on a skepticism of corporate power and trade’s impact on labor rights and the environment. But they are also similar when it comes to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/us/politics/bernie-sanders-voters.html">many working-class Americans</a> and <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3655">young people</a> who form the left wing of the Democratic Party. </p>
<p>In the primaries, Biden beat Sanders and others who offered a more skeptical view of trade. But still, he will have to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/business/economy/democrats-biden-trade.html">accommodate the new energy</a> coursing through the left in America, including when it comes to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/biden-vs-sanders-trade-fight-is-war-for-future-of-democratic-party.html">its views on trade</a>. And the populist left will have a lot more power than the right in Biden’s Washington, from members of Congress to key Democratic interest groups like <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/05/protectionism-trump-biden-buy-american-tariffs">labor unions</a>. </p>
<h2>Potent populists</h2>
<p>A pro-trade optimist might point out that polls, like <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/286730/americans-vanishing-fear-foreign-trade.aspx">this one conducted in late 2019</a>, suggest overwhelming support for free trade among voters in both parties. Polls, however, don’t always measure how strongly and consistently these views are held. </p>
<p>What’s more, because the <a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/cupcbooks/9780521362474.htm">harms of free trade are more concentrated</a> than its benefits, the minority of voters who push for protectionist policies are often more powerful than their numbers might suggest. Ultimately, although populists on the right and the left represent a minority position on trade, they will remain potent political forces for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>For these reasons, I believe it is unlikely that Biden will be able to return to business as usual on trade. While Trump’s aggressive protectionism will likely go away, Biden will probably keep up the pressure on China and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/opinion/biden-interview-mcconnell-china-iran.html">has already adopted</a> some of his predecessor’s “America first” rhetoric to appeal to the working class. And for his more progressive supporters, you’ll likely see him push for stronger labor and environmental protections in future trade agreements. </p>
<p>Biden might not be able to throw the door to global trade wide open, but he should be able to keep it from shutting any further.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149340/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Hankla has donated to and volunteered with the Democratic Party of Georgia.</span></em></p>President-elect Biden hopes to restore America’s global leadership on issues like trade, but populists in both parties may make his job a lot harder.Charles Hankla, Associate Professor of Political Science, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1484952020-11-01T06:53:43Z2020-11-01T06:53:43ZAs the world watches US election, the appeal of America is diminished<p>A US presidential election always draws intense worldwide interest, in part due to the spectacle, but also because the leadership of the most powerful country in the world has a significant bearing on international affairs. It is also a moment of immense cultural power which magnifies America’s global significance. </p>
<p>While political leaders and policy experts will watch the election through the prism of their strategic interests, most of the world will watch with a more nebulous sense that the fate of the world is somehow at stake. For better or worse, around the globe people tend to view the US through the figure of its president. This is certainly the case with Donald Trump, whose global celebrity has amplified feelings about the US.</p>
<p>The 2020 election symbolically aligns with a paradigm shift in the world order, a disassembling of western and more particularly American dominance. What is at stake here is the idea of the US as the world’s leading nation, an idea that forcefully shaped “the American Century” and is now fast dissolving.</p>
<p>Global perceptions of the US are regularly monitored by major polling organisations such as the Pew Research Center and Gallup. There are also myriad regional and national polls seeking information on the US’s reputation and influence. By almost all quantitative measures the US’s global standing has plummeted since the election of Trump and this downward spiral is more often than not associated with his leadership.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/09/15/us-image-plummets-internationally-as-most-say-country-has-handled-coronavirus-badly/">Pew study</a> in September 2020 noted that the number of countries with a favourable view of the US is “as low as it has been at any point since the Center began polling on this topic nearly two decades ago.” The survey showed ratings of “confidence in the US president” ranging from a low of 9% in Belgium to a high of 25% in Japan. </p>
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<img alt="Graph showing global approval ratings for the US." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366950/original/file-20201102-21-imzw1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366950/original/file-20201102-21-imzw1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366950/original/file-20201102-21-imzw1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366950/original/file-20201102-21-imzw1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366950/original/file-20201102-21-imzw1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366950/original/file-20201102-21-imzw1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366950/original/file-20201102-21-imzw1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/09/15/us-image-plummets-internationally-as-most-say-country-has-handled-coronavirus-badly/pg_2020-09-15_u-s-image_0-01/">Pew Research Center</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several international polls link the decline in confidence in American leadership to Trump’s mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, both nationally and internationally. Measuring such perceptions quantitatively has much room for error, but it’s hard to deny that the scale and consistency of these polls are indicators of the US’s maligned and depleted image and influence in the world today. </p>
<p>That sense of diminishing American appeal is evident not only in the polling but also in global media coverage of the US. This is hardly surprising given the images of domestic turmoil that travel swiftly in real time: scenes of overworked <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/15/us-nurses-doctors-mental-health-coronavirus">healthcare workers</a>, of mass demonstrations over the police killings of African-Americans, of armed vigilantes challenging pandemic orders, and of <a href="https://theconversation.com/california-wildfires-why-a-gender-reveal-party-got-the-blame-but-shouldnt-have-146033">wildfires raging in California</a>.</p>
<p>The first presidential debate provoked <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54354405">shock and dismay in international news media</a>. It was described as a <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/elecciones-usa/2020-09-30/el-caos-y-los-ataques-personales-marcan-el-primer-debate-entre-trump-y-biden.html">“chaotic and virulent spectacle”</a> (El Pais in Spain), as <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/messy-debate-ends-with-dire-warning-from-trump-this-is-not-going-to-end-well/articleshow/78397485.cms">“mudwrestling”</a> (The Times of India), as <a href="https://twitter.com/MFeldenkirchen/status/1311136035284320257">“a joke, a low point, a shame for the country”</a> (Der Spiegel in Germany), as a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/30/trump-debate-national-humiliation-analysis">“national humiliation for America”</a> (The Guardian in the UK), and as evidence of the <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202523.shtml">“recession of US influence, national power”</a> (Global Times in China).</p>
<p>Since 2016, the European media has reported on a widespread and increasing sense of European disillusionment with the US, centred on Trump but also pointing to an acceleration of American decline. Writing in the Irish Times in April, <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-donald-trump-has-destroyed-the-country-he-promised-to-make-great-again-1.4235928?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fopinion%2Ffintan-o-toole-donald-trump-has-destroyed-the-country-he-promised-to-make-great-again-1.4235928">Fintan O’Toole observed</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is hard not to feel sorry for Americans … The country Trump promised to make great again has never in its history seemed so pitiful. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Simon Kuper in the Financial Times made a similar observation in October, writing that <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8ed8fca1-ce5f-4d41-bd0d-6c4622bdc987?fbclid=IwAR0MqooIw7SK39w8yaQmpg9isXOzGZMxo66yYZpmTxGNhUxAd7peh-vS_00">“European attitudes to Americans are shifting from envy to compassion.”</a></p>
<h2>The end of the American century</h2>
<p>Underlying this shift in global, and especially western, perceptions of the US is a deep but barely coherent disinvestment in the fantasy of “America” as a liberal and redemptive power, one that acts on behalf of a global common good. This has endured for many national political and popular cultures since the end of the second world war and until recently has been stoked by American soft power and popular culture. It is a fantasy that dramatises and idealises American narratives – the stock example being “the American Dream” – and makes “America” a screen for global desires and discontents.</p>
<p>The US has long functioned as a global mirror with many nations viewing it as the epitome of modernity and measuring their “progress” against that imagery. Fascination and contempt are bound together in this fantasy. It is dependent on what is known but cannot be acknowledged: a fear of and desire for American power. It provides other nations with the balm of calling out US hypocrisy in the misuse of its powers, hypocrisy which is often measured in the distance between American soft power rhetoric and hard power actions. </p>
<p>The US once fed the fantasy with confidence. When the magazine publisher Henry Luce published his famous essay <a href="http://www-personal.umich.edu/%7Emlassite/discussions261/luce.pdf">The American Century</a> in 1941, on the eve of the US entry into the second world war, he provided a mission statement of American exceptionalism. The essay expressed a vision of US political, economic and cultural power, of a pre-eminent US that would lead the postwar world by its example in advancing democratic ideals, free enterprise and “the American way of life”. It was a compelling vision of American hegemony that joined nationalism and internationalism in the interests of global leadership.</p>
<p>The fantasy is now fast unravelling as the American Century comes to an end. This has tallied not with the 20th century but more pointedly with the period between the start of the Cold War and the current implosion of the liberal world order. In recent years the relative decline of the US has been much remarked upon as a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/06/30/137522219/what-does-a-post-american-world-look-like?t=1603800152364">“post-American world”</a> emerges, and nationalism, particularly an <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-donald-trumps-america-first-agenda-has-damaged-global-human-rights-148030">“America First” agenda</a>, has displaced internationalism in American foreign policy.</p>
<h2>Cultural power</h2>
<p>Much international polling and commentary in recent years suggests that the US is losing its power to communicate, and is no longer seen as a cultural or political beacon. The common measurement of this is the claim that American soft power, understood as the power to attract rather than coerce, has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/opinion/trump-soft-power.html">been greatly reduced</a>, not least because Trump and his administration eschew it as irrelevant to the promotion of “America First”.</p>
<p>While American liberals fret at the loss of America’s global cultural appeal in terms of soft power, they cling to a crude conception of the way cultural processes work and the impact they have. Cultural power takes many forms and the US continues to provide cultural and political influence across the world, though not necessarily shaped by the office of the president or the diplomacy of the State Department. A recent example is the global impact of the protests for racial justice and the international spread of the Black Lives Matter movement.</p>
<p>Throughout June 2020, people took the streets across the world in response to the protests in the US sparked by the death of a Black man, George Floyd, while in police custody. Expressions of solidarity were the most common feature of the protests, but they also invariably connected with and expressed <a href="https://theconversation.com/black-lives-matter-in-jamaica-debates-about-colourism-follow-anger-at-police-brutality-140754">local matters of racial division and injustice</a>. As they mutated across borders, the protests triggered activism and debates on police violence, racial profiling, the detention of asylum seekers and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/public-sculpture-expert-why-i-welcome-the-decision-to-throw-bristols-edward-colston-statue-in-the-river-140285">removal of monuments</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/george-floyd-protests-show-how-the-us-has-retreated-from-its-position-as-a-world-leader-139912">George Floyd protests show how the US has retreated from its position as a world leader</a>
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<p>These protests and conversations indicate the symbolic resonance of the American civil rights struggle across the world. A national reckoning with race in the US may go some way to restoring the country’s self-image and standing in the world.</p>
<h2>Tipping point</h2>
<p>The world should not underestimate America’s capacity for renewal, but nor should it underestimate its capacity for self-delusion and for packaging this belief in American exceptionalism as something to sell to the rest of the world. In short, the death of the fantasy of America as a liberal and redemptive power is not necessarily a bad thing – and the election of Joe Biden as president would be unlikely to renew it.</p>
<p>A reality check on American power, including its cultural power, is overdue. This entails taking stock of the ways in which the US has fomented a <a href="https://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/3/27/15037232/trump-populist-appeal-culture-economy">cultural backlash</a> both against liberal democracy at home and the liberal world order abroad. That backlash – put crudely, the people against the elites – resonates with ethno-nationalist and populist politics across the world.</p>
<p>With the waning of liberal democracy we are at a cultural tipping point in the west where opponents do not neatly line up as left versus right and where politics is increasingly <a href="https://www.pippanorris.com/cultural-backlash-1">defined by cultural values</a>. Part of the significance of the 2020 US election as a global cultural moment is its dramatisation of this tipping point, posed between the insurgent forces of nationalism and the residual forces of liberalism.</p>
<p>The world will be watching, less in fascination than in bemusement and commiseration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam Kennedy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The fantasy of America as a liberal and redempetive global power is fast unravelling.Liam Kennedy, Professor of American Studies, University College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1485162020-10-26T18:51:25Z2020-10-26T18:51:25ZWhat would a Biden presidency mean for Australia?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365378/original/file-20201025-17-1jq9c42.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Harnik/AP/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>American presidential elections do not, as a rule, change the calculus much for Australian foreign policy. Elections come and go, American presidents complete their terms and business continues more or less as normal.</p>
<p>Even Richard Nixon’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/watergate/articles/080974-3.htm">resignation in 1974</a> due to Watergate caused not much more than a ripple in what had been a difficult relationship between Washington and Canberra during the Whitlam era.</p>
<p>Gough Whitlam and his ministers had criticised US <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/gough-whitlams-incendiary-letter-to-richard-nixon-on-vietnam/news-story/b59ad3a4e87d8c758c7cd708ca4656f3">bombing campaigns</a> in Hanoi and the North Vietnamese port city of Haiphong.</p>
<p>Importantly from Australia’s perspective, Gerald Ford continued Nixon’s engagement with China. This led to the <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/features/p/china/president-carter-on-normalizing-relations-with-china.html">normalisation of relations</a> under Jimmy Carter in 1978.</p>
<p>While it would be foolish to predict the outcome of presidential elections whose results have <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/">confounded pollsters in the recent past</a>, odds favour a change of an administration.</p>
<p>President Donald Trump’s blunders in the management of a pandemic are <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/">weighing heavily</a> on both his electoral prospects and those of the Republican Party.</p>
<p>So, with all the caveats attached, it is reasonable to speculate about implications for Australia of a change of administration.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-cant-delay-the-election-but-he-can-try-to-delegitimise-it-143747">Trump can't delay the election, but he can try to delegitimise it</a>
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<p>An end to Trump’s “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-foreign-policy-puts-america-first/">America First</a>” era and its replacement by a traditionalist American foreign policy under Joe Biden, which emphasises friendships and alliances, will create new opportunities.</p>
<p>Importantly, a less abrasive international environment, in which America seeks to rebuild confidence in its global leadership, should be to Australia’s advantage.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365379/original/file-20201025-19-13316bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/365379/original/file-20201025-19-13316bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365379/original/file-20201025-19-13316bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365379/original/file-20201025-19-13316bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365379/original/file-20201025-19-13316bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365379/original/file-20201025-19-13316bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/365379/original/file-20201025-19-13316bt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An end to the abrasive, ‘America first’ foreign policy of the Trump administration would benefit Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not least of the benefits would be an opportunity for Canberra to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/beijing-changes-tactics-on-australia-looks-to-reset-diplomacy-20201005-p5624f.html">reset its relations with Beijing</a>. This is a long-overdue project whose fulfilment has been complicated by Australia’s identification with Washington’s erratic policies coupled with Sinophobic attitudes in Canberra.</p>
<p>None of this is to suggest Australia should drop its legitimate criticisms of China: its human rights abuses; its <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-1-3-billion-for-more-cyber-spies-is-an-incremental-response-to-a-radical-problem-141692">cyber intrusions</a>; its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-26/china-is-after-intellectual-property-not-always-illegally/10302424">intellectual property theft</a>; its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-17/australia-needs-foreign-interference-commissioner-china-tensions/12670516">attempts to interfere</a> in Australian domestic politics; its flagrant disregard for <a href="https://theconversation.com/naval-exercises-in-south-china-sea-add-to-growing-fractiousness-between-us-and-china-142168">criticisms of its activities</a> in the South China Sea; its unprincipled reneging on its “<a href="https://theconversation.com/china-is-taking-a-risk-by-getting-tough-on-hong-kong-now-the-us-must-decide-how-to-respond-139294">one country two systems</a>” agreements on Hong Kong, and a host of other issues.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hopes-of-an-improvement-in-australia-china-relations-dashed-as-beijing-ups-the-ante-147989">Hopes of an improvement in Australia-China relations dashed as Beijing ups the ante</a>
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<p>Indeed, you could argue Canberra needs to be more forthright in its dealings with China in pursuit of a more distinctive foreign policy.</p>
<p>Early in his tenure, Prime Minister Scott Morrison showed glimmers of promise in this regard. But this proved short-lived.</p>
<p>In an <a href="https://asialink.unimelb.edu.au/stories/australia-and-the-indo-pacific-an-address-by-prime-minister-scott-morrison">Asialink speech</a> in the lead-up to the 2019 Osaka G20 summit, Morrison sketched out a role for Australia in seeking to defuse tensions in the region and provide some space for itself in its foreign policy. He said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We should not just sit back and passively await our fate in the wake of a major power contest.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The speech was regarded at the time as promising a nuanced Morrison foreign policy. But since then the Australia has not ventured far from America’s coattails.</p>
<p>Indeed, it might be said to have cleaved even more closely to the US alliance as China’s rise has unsettled the region.</p>
<p>This returns us to implications of a potential <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/18/us/politics/joe-biden-foreign-policy.html">Biden administration</a> for Australia.</p>
<p>It would be naive to assume tensions between Washington and Beijing will dissipate under a Biden presidency. Such is the range of issues bedevilling Sino-US relations that some rancour will persist.</p>
<p>Much has changed in the four years since Biden served as vice president under Barack Obama. China is richer, bigger, stronger, more assertive and seemingly more ideological. It is certainly more nationalistic.</p>
<p>In Xi Jinping, it has a leader who is more conspicuously and ruthlessly committed to restoring China’s greatness than his predecessors.</p>
<p>Gone are the days when discussion about China revolved around hopes it would become a <a href="https://www.ncuscr.org/content/robert-zoellicks-responsible-stakeholder-speech">responsible international stakeholder</a> willing to accommodate itself to an America-dominated global order. Now the issue is whether China’s assertiveness can be hedged to avoid open conflict.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beware-the-cauldron-of-paranoia-as-china-and-the-us-slide-towards-a-new-kind-of-cold-war-139023">Beware the 'cauldron of paranoia' as China and the US slide towards a new kind of cold war</a>
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<p>If elected, Biden will need to settle on a new formula for dealing with China that provides certainty for an anxious global community. Whether this proves possible remains to be seen.</p>
<p>It should also be noted that Biden’s <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/just-how-good-joe-biden%E2%80%99s-foreign-policy-team-170216">foreign policy advisory team</a> includes hawkish elements that will resist yielding ground to China. Biden himself has referred to China’s leader Xi as a “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/23/debate-transcript-trump-biden-final-presidential-debate-nashville/3740152001/">thug</a>”, along with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Biden’s foreign policy realists are not burdened by an “America First” mindset. His team can be expected to take an expansive view of American foreign policy on issues like climate change, arms control and rebuilding a global trading system battered by years of neglect.</p>
<p>A Democrat administration would <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-trump-could-kill-the-paris-agreement-but-climate-action-will-survive-68596">re-enter the Paris Agreement</a> on climate change. It could also be expected to review Trump’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-24/trump-withdraws-from-tpp/8206356">decision to disengage</a> from the Trans Pacific Partnership trading bloc and it might seek to renegotiate a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-another-october-surprise-may-yet-take-place-this-time-in-the-persian-gulf-147354">nuclear deal with Iran</a>.</p>
<p>These would be positive developments from an Australian standpoint.</p>
<p>Unquestionably, re-ordering China policy will be at the top of Biden’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/politics/joe-biden-foreign-policy.html">foreign policy priorities</a>, and separate from the absolute domestic imperative of bringing a COVID-19 pandemic under control.</p>
<p>Australia should take advantage of the opportunity to explore possibilities of a less counterproductive relationship with its principal trading partner.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148516/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Joe Biden becomes the next US president, there are many potential benefits for Australia, particularly in a less combative Sino-US relationship.Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1480302020-10-22T13:50:13Z2020-10-22T13:50:13ZHow Donald Trump’s ‘America first’ agenda has damaged global human rights<p>Even before Donald Trump was elected US president in 2016, researchers who study <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/searching-for-bright-lines-in-the-trump-presidency/CB5F40CBC27EDA75F4D7FC7F171E6880">democratic backsliding</a>, the rise of <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=VZKADwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=trump+democracy+levitsky&ots=X9Rld_swQa&sig=-9mdlk5_LeN9XVPnEXazUgen-r0#v=onepage&q=trump%20democracy%20levitsky&f=false">authoritarian regimes</a> and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/70544/trumps-moves-are-right-out-of-the-authoritarian-playbook/">their policies</a>, feared his “America first” agenda would pose a serious threat to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/donald-trump-democratic-norms/508469/">democratic norms</a> and <a href="https://www.ruleoflawrepublicans.com/oversight/">the rule of law</a>. </p>
<p>In office, the president repeatedly <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/24/politics/trump-election-warnings-leaving-office/index.html">refused to commit</a> to accept the results of the election. He has called for criminal prosecution of <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/521436-trump-says-he-agrees-100-percent-with-lock-her-up-chants-about">his political enemies</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1065346909362143232">criticised judges</a> for ruling against his administration and rewarded his political allies <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/07/trump-roger-stone-pardon-commutation/">with pardons</a> when they broke the law.</p>
<p>In a recent <a href="https://bit.ly/TrumpHumanRights">article in the Journal of Human Rights,</a> we reviewed a wide array of evidence about the Trump administration’s apparent threats to various international commitments as well as democratic rule. We show how Trump’s America first policies have directly undermined the international human rights regime. </p>
<p>While critics of US foreign policy have <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/27641613.pdf?casa_token=jolIRjJayJYAAAAA:iVSt0cWoURoNmRucSaymksTGB_FyghuLn1_Ro8O9kUjSTZsE0y0ADxVdJbmvGKkBfnGgdTVonfp9_v5u6XIlIcYDoxD91YQH55lHzA05dOrLrVFOlm0">argued before that the US often falls short</a> in upholding human rights, the current moment is particularly fraught.</p>
<h2>America first</h2>
<p>Trump’s America first agenda, and especially his administration’s <a href="https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-abstract/61/4/786/4781729">overt transgressions</a> against many longstanding international norms, has <a href="https://www.gallup.com/analytics/315803/rating-world-leaders-2020.aspx">damaged America’s global reputation</a>. The Trump administration barely pretends to care about human rights in comparison with other priorities. This both directly undermines human rights protection in the US and emboldens other world leaders to violate human rights. </p>
<p>Consider Trump’s reaction to the conclusion by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/cia-concludes-saudi-crown-prince-ordered-jamal-khashoggis-assassination/2018/11/16/98c89fe6-e9b2-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html">US intelligence agencies</a> that Saudi Arabia’s leadership had ordered the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. Trump <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-marine-one-departure-25/">explained</a> why he continued to back Saudi Arabia: “It’s all about ‘America First’. We’re not going to give up hundreds of billions of dollars in (arms) orders.” </p>
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<p>Even before his election, Trump was advocating policies in contravention of long-established international norms. During his 2016 campaign, he infamously called for the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/03/22/warning-of-u-s-attacks-donald-trump-advocates-allowing-torture/">use of torture against terror suspects</a>, which is unconditionally prohibited by international law. </p>
<p>As president, Trump has followed up by pardoning various war criminals, including soldiers convicted of brutal acts, which <a href="https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/9296-pardoning-servicemembers-under-article-ii-powers/news/cerl-news">military legal scholars argue</a> “can encourage criminal behaviour with anticipated impunity on the battlefield”.</p>
<h2>Conventions out the window</h2>
<p>Perhaps even more problematically, the US now acts in a manner that directly and openly transgresses major human rights accords. It is also very much an outsider to the main international human rights institutions. </p>
<p>The 1951 <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/3b66c2aa10">Refugee Convention</a> explicitly bans discrimination based on “race, religion or country of origin”. However, the administration notoriously implemented a travel ban, which <a href="https://www.aclu-wa.org/pages/timeline-muslim-ban">also affected refugees</a>, based on <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/24/travel-ban-donald-trump-campaign-promises-president-tweets/542504002/">Trump’s repeated call for a Muslim ban</a>. </p>
<p>Broader hostility to immigrants and refugees were also cruelly reflected in a widely condemned <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/news/2020/06/18/family-separation-policy-continues-two-years-after-trump-administration-claims-it-ended">policy to separate family members from one another</a> – effectively locking children in cages. In June 2018, the day after the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/trump-haley-un-human-rights-israel-venezuela-withdrawal/563246/">dubbed the US family separation practice</a> “government-sanctioned child abuse”, the Trump administration withdrew from the organisation, decrying its politics. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Woman holding poster protesting against Trump administration's family separation policy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364523/original/file-20201020-13-6ehdta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/364523/original/file-20201020-13-6ehdta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364523/original/file-20201020-13-6ehdta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364523/original/file-20201020-13-6ehdta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364523/original/file-20201020-13-6ehdta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364523/original/file-20201020-13-6ehdta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/364523/original/file-20201020-13-6ehdta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Thousands protested against the Trump administration’s family separation policy in June 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/chicago-illinois-usa-june-30-2018-1126939079">Marie Kanger Born/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The Trump government ratcheted up US hostility to another major institution, the International Criminal Court (ICC), apparently for having the audacity to consider possible violations of human rights by the US. In March 2020, an ICC prosecutor <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/world/europe/afghanistan-war-crimes-icc.html">was given the go-ahead to launch</a> a formal investigation of war crimes in Afghanistan, potentially including acts committed by US personnel. When the Trump administration <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/11/trump-icc-us-war-crimes-investigation-sanctions">retaliated in June by imposing vindictive economic sanctions</a> and visa restrictions on court personnel, it explicitly referenced America first. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-punishes-international-criminal-court-for-investigating-potential-war-crimes-in-afghanistan-143886">US punishes International Criminal Court for investigating potential war crimes in Afghanistan</a>
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<h2>Authoritarian playbook</h2>
<p>Some of Trump’s most troublesome practices concern his uncomfortable veneration for an array of autocrats and tyrannical regimes. Over the years, Trump has openly admired North Korea’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/dictator-envy-trumps-praise-of-kim-jong-un-marks-embrace-of-totalitarian-leaders/2018/06/15/b9a8bbc8-70af-11e8-afd5-778aca903bbe_story.html">Kim Jong-un</a>, Russia’s <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/03/trump-xi-jinping-dictators/554810/">Vladimir Putin</a> and China’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-china/trump-praises-chinese-president-extending-tenure-for-life-idUSKCN1GG015">Xi Jinping</a> for their authoritarian policies. </p>
<p>Trump’s words and deeds often seem to emulate their behaviour. He uses authoritarian rhetoric to refer to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/business/media/trump-media-enemy-of-the-people.html">media as “the enemy of the people”</a>, and has called <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-42954829">Democrats un-American and treasonous</a> for opposing some of his policies. </p>
<p>During Black Lives Matter protests in early June 2020, federal law enforcement officials dispersed a peaceful protest near the White House with chemical gas and rubber bullets. Trump <a href="https://time.com/5846978/trump-military-protests/">urged US governors</a> to “dominate the streets” and cheered the use of “<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267808120136511489">overwhelming force</a>” on Twitter. He also repeatedly promised to send in the military to quell domestic “<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276205906338824192">insurrection</a>.” </p>
<p>As one of us, Kurt Mills, has argued <a href="https://bit.ly/2CsyZTm">elsewhere</a>, we are also unsettled by overt US efforts to redefine and strictly limit the global human rights agenda. The <a href="https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Draft-Report-of-the-Commission-on-Unalienable-Rights.pdf">Commission on Unalienable Rights</a>, created by US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has argued for a narrow understanding of human rights, prioritising what it called “natural rights” such as religious rights. This is at odds with the international consensus on rights, and could greatly reduce protections for many groups of vulnerable people, including LGBTQ people.</p>
<p>In contrast to some past American human rights transgressions, these Trump administration’s violations are public and performative. They send worrying signals about US identity. </p>
<p>If Americans re-elect Trump in November, it will send a strong message to the world that the US does not prioritise human rights, the rule of law and democracy. This could have devastating consequences both at home and abroad. Domestically, rights will continue to be undermined and constrained, while human rights abuses around the world will be implicitly sanctioned, making it harder for human rights advocates to challenge these abuses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148030/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Trump administration’s overt transgressions of international norms embolden other world leaders to violate human rights.Rodger A. Payne, Professor of Political Science, University of LouisvilleKurt Mills, Professor of International Relations and Human Rights, University of DundeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1462592020-09-15T18:28:10Z2020-09-15T18:28:10ZHow Erin O’Toole’s strategy to win over union voters could work<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358172/original/file-20200915-20-pazjbr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C600%2C5568%2C3100&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole holds a news conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Sept. 2, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Labour Day, the Conservative Party’s new leader, Erin O’Toole, <a href="https://twitter.com/erinotoole/status/1302991683072798721">released a video</a> touting his new “Canada First” economic strategy.</p>
<p>In it, he blames big government, corporate elites and bad trade deals for Canada’s ailing manufacturing and forestry sectors, and offers his Canada First economic strategy as the path towards higher wages and prosperity. </p>
<p>O’Toole singles out China, in particular, as a threat to Canadian jobs. He also touts the importance of ramping up domestic production of key consumer goods.</p>
<p>O’Toole’s messaging sounds eerily similar to U.S. President Donald Trump’s controversial <a href="https://english.bdi.eu/article/news/america-first-u-s-trade-policy-under-president-donald-trump/">America First policy</a> of isolation and protectionism. </p>
<h2>A page from Trump’s playbook?</h2>
<p>Trump’s economic nationalist message in the 2016 presidential election clearly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/upshot/why-trump-won-working-class-whites.html">resonated with white, working-class communities in the American Rust Belt states</a> hit hard by de-industrialization and free trade. </p>
<p>Drawing from Trump’s xenophobic election playbook, O’Toole’s Canada First strategy is designed to whip up nationalist sentiment in an effort to attract working-class votes from union strongholds in manufacturing and forestry.</p>
<p>Canadian workers in the private sector are roughly three times as likely to be unionized than their American counterparts, making them an important constituency to be courted for votes. However, voters in union households are <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/tight-race-between-conservatives-and-liberals-continues-as-voter-fluidity-remains-high/">far less likely to vote Conservative than their non-union counterparts</a>, and their unions have spent millions <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/who-s-behind-the-anti-andrew-scheer-ad-airing-during-raptors-game-1.4460332">to help defeat Conservatives</a> in recent federal <a href="http://www.lltjournal.ca/index.php/llt/article/view/5874">and provincial elections</a>.</p>
<p>In adopting economic nationalist rhetoric, O’Toole is trying to bypass union leadership entirely and appeal to private sector union members directly by stoking resentment and tapping into their sense of economic insecurity.</p>
<h2>Successful for Trump, so why not O'Toole?</h2>
<p>That strategy largely worked in U.S. Rust Belt states stretching from Pennsylvania to the Midwest. That’s because Trump’s America First message seemingly dovetailed perfectly with private sector unions’ own longstanding “Buy American” campaigns which, to some degree, demonized Asian countries and Mexico as a threat to jobs and economic security. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A tattered American flag is flown from a mailbox." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358191/original/file-20200915-24-5wd477.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358191/original/file-20200915-24-5wd477.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358191/original/file-20200915-24-5wd477.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358191/original/file-20200915-24-5wd477.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358191/original/file-20200915-24-5wd477.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358191/original/file-20200915-24-5wd477.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358191/original/file-20200915-24-5wd477.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A tattered American flag is flown in 2018 from a mailbox in Warren, Ohio, a Rust Belt state hit hard by de-industrialization.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Minchillo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After being mobilized by their own unions over the course of several decades by <a href="https://labornotes.org/2017/05/interview-pitfalls-buy-american">nationalist arguments</a>, is it really surprising that Trump’s America First policy found a sympathetic ear among private sector union members? Trump’s message wasn’t all that new, after all; many union members had heard it first at their union halls. </p>
<p>While the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-o-toole-pnp-interview-1.5716115">dynamics are a little different in Canada</a>, O’Toole and the Conservatives are betting that there are enough similarities to successfully tap into new private sector union voters negatively impacted by trade deals.</p>
<p>Unifor, Canada’s largest private sector union, has been employing Canada First rhetoric for some time in an effort to protect the jobs of its members.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Jerry Dias embraces a colleague. Both are wearing masks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358176/original/file-20200915-22-ko7yp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/358176/original/file-20200915-22-ko7yp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358176/original/file-20200915-22-ko7yp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358176/original/file-20200915-22-ko7yp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358176/original/file-20200915-22-ko7yp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358176/original/file-20200915-22-ko7yp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/358176/original/file-20200915-22-ko7yp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Unifor president Jerry Dias embraces a colleague as he talks to union delegates at the start of formal contract talks with the Detroit Three automakers, Fiat Chrysler, Ford and General Motors, in Toronto in August 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
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<p>As recently as 2019, in response to General Motors’ decision to close its Oshawa assembly plant, Unifor spent millions on a nationalist ad campaign attacking the company and <a href="https://www.unifor.org/en/whats-new/press-room/unifor-promote-gm-mexico-boycott-new-super-bowl-ad">calling for a boycott</a> of GM vehicles made in Mexico. </p>
<p>“GM continues to expand in Mexico, leaving workers out in the cold, a move that’s as un-Canadian as the vehicles they now want to sell us,” <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEAAz3fr2EU&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=UniforCanada">the ad</a> said. </p>
<p>While Unifor’s leadership insisted the boycott was not designed to demonize Mexican autoworkers, <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/03/gm-oshawa-autoworkers-mexico-caw-unifor-unions-boycott">some on the left</a> criticized the campaign for playing into the hands of “the racism and xenophobia of the right.” </p>
<h2>O'Toole attempts to bypass union leadership</h2>
<p>There is certainly no guarantee O’Toole’s sudden embrace of economic nationalism will pay off at the ballot box. In fact, it <a href="https://lawliberty.org/understanding-the-conservative-split-over-globalization/">may alienate elements</a> of the Conservative’s free trade-loving big business base. </p>
<p>And Unifor and other private sector unions are unlikely to cede the terrain of economic nationalism to O’Toole and the Conservatives. The union leadership will undoubtedly work to defeat O’Toole and the anti-union elements of the Conservative Party in the next federal election, just as they did with Stephen Harper <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/unions-set-to-launch-major-anti-harper-offensive/article26240095/">in 2015</a> and Andrew Scheer <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/jerry-dias-wants-to-make-an-enemy-out-of-andrew-scheer/">in 2019</a>. </p>
<p>But paradoxically, while union leaders set out to defeat O’Toole, his Conservative Party will be trying to undermine that effort by playing to the very economic nationalist fears, angers and resentments that some union leaders have been stirring for decades. </p>
<p>Whether that strategy will pay off remains to be seen. But it may force private sector unions to confront the uncomfortable realization that campaigns to defend jobs and working-class communities don’t have to vilify working-class communities in Mexico, China or anywhere else in the world. </p>
<p>Instead, by mounting proactive campaigns that combat racism and xenophobia and foster solidarity among workers in Canada and around the world, unions can begin to weaken, rather than strengthen, the populist conservative political forces that organized labour aims to defeat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146259/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Erin O’Toole’s Conservative Party will try to undermine union leaders by playing to the economic nationalist fears some have been stoking for years.Larry Savage, Professor, Labour Studies, Brock UniversitySimon Black, Assistant Professor of Labour Studies, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1448412020-08-27T12:21:41Z2020-08-27T12:21:41ZTrump’s foreign policy is still ‘America First’ – what does that mean, exactly?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354897/original/file-20200826-16-zx7wlb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C254%2C4722%2C2375&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As president, Trump has cultivated close relations with autocratic leaders while distancing the U.S. from its traditional allies in Europe and Asia. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/june-2019-japan-osaka-donald-trump-president-of-the-united-news-photo/1152488988?adppopup=true">Bernd von Jutrczenka/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the Republican National Convention, supporters of President Trump’s reelection bid have celebrated his attempts to build a Mexico border wall, his <a href="https://www.voanews.com/2020-usa-votes/trumps-america-first-agenda-shapes-gop-foreign-policy">promise to “bring our troops home” and his pledge to end U.S. “reliance on China.”</a> </p>
<p>All are components of the “America First” agenda Trump ran on in 2016. Back then, he promised to “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36152947">shake the rust off America’s foreign policy</a>.” </p>
<p>Four years later, it’s clearer what this looks like in practice. As a <a href="http://www.klauslarres.org/profile.html">foreign policy analyst</a>, I find Trump’s “America First” vision has had three primary strands: disengaging the U.S. from global politics, disdaining allies and befriending autocratic leaders.</p>
<h2>1. Exiting the global stage</h2>
<p>Early in Trump’s administration, the U.S. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-regarding-withdrawal-united-states-trans-pacific-partnership-negotiations-agreement/">exited the Trans-Pacific Partnership</a>, a trade alliance of mostly Asian countries, and the 2015 Paris climate accord. In May 2020, with the United States <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53780196">leading the world in COVID-19 infections</a>, Trump <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-trump-who/trump-cutting-u-s-ties-with-world-health-organization-over-virus-idUSKBN2352YJ">cut funding</a> for the World Health Organization, which is spearheading the global pandemic response. </p>
<p>Trump prefers bilateral deals, in which the U.S. usually is the stronger partner, to multilateral agreements in which its power is offset by many other nations. </p>
<p>His administration’s new <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement">U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement</a> has <a href="https://theconversation.com/usmca-the-3-most-important-changes-in-the-new-nafta-and-why-they-matter-128735">moderate improvements over the original North American Free Trade Agreement</a>, including stricter <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/2/17925424/trump-mexico-trade-deal-nafta-workers-labor">labor standards in Mexico</a>. But other pledges to replace scrapped deals with better ones remain unfulfilled. </p>
<p>Trump has not yet come up with a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-11/new-iran-nuclear-deal-would-trump-s-be-tougher-than-obama-s">“tougher” agreement</a> to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, nor followed up on his pledge to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-trump-paris-climate-accord/">“negotiate a far better” international climate deal</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, the U.S. has sat on the sidelines of major world crises and international collaborations for the past three years. </p>
<p>New U.S. immigration policies like the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-protecting-nation-foreign-terrorist-entry-united-states/">Muslim immigration ban</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/us/trump-asylum-ban-ninth-circuit.html">refusal to grant admission to most asylum seekers</a>, both very popular with his base and abhorred by Democrats, further isolate the country from the world.</p>
<p>In June, the administration even stopped issuing to immigrants most <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/20/881245867/trump-expected-to-suspend-h-1b-other-visas-until-end-of-year">work visas and new green cards</a>, claiming they were hurting American citizens on the job market during the pandemic. That angered <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-apple-google-trump-visa-freeze-amicus-brief-2020-8">major American companies like Microsoft and Apple</a>, which depend on those international skilled workers. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354910/original/file-20200826-7069-3rwcfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Protesters at the San Francisco airport hold signs reading 'refugees are welcome here' and 'build bridges not walls.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354910/original/file-20200826-7069-3rwcfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354910/original/file-20200826-7069-3rwcfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354910/original/file-20200826-7069-3rwcfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354910/original/file-20200826-7069-3rwcfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354910/original/file-20200826-7069-3rwcfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354910/original/file-20200826-7069-3rwcfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354910/original/file-20200826-7069-3rwcfh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators at the San Francisco airport’s international terminal during a rally against Trump’s ban on Muslim immigration in January 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/police-officer-walks-past-demonstrators-at-the-news-photo/632947226?adppopup=true">Stephen Lam/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Broken partnerships</h2>
<p>“America First” has led to tense relations with the European Union, which Trump referred to as a trading “foe” during the 2016 election campaign. He further alienated America’s European allies when he repeatedly <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36219612">came out in support of Brexit</a> – the disruptive British exit from the EU – and encouraged other EU countries to follow Britain’s lead.</p>
<p>In 2018 he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html">told advisers on several occasions</a> that he was considering withdrawing the U.S. from NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization founded in 1949 to militarily protect European and U.S. interests. </p>
<p>These are huge divergences from the past. All Republican and Democratic presidents since World War II have expressed strong – and crucial – support for a united Europe and for NATO.</p>
<p>In Asia, relations with longstanding allies are likewise frayed. Trump asked South Korea and Japan to <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/15/trump-asks-tokyo-quadruple-payments-us-troops-japan/">double or even quadruple</a> their financial contributions to keep U.S. military bases on their soil, apparently failing to realize that these bases give the U.S. a strategic presence in a region dominated by China and North Korea. </p>
<p>America’s military presence in Asia helps the U.S. gather intelligence and respond quickly to, for instance, a North Korean nuclear attack. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354947/original/file-20200826-7049-58htye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other leaders stare down at a seated Trump, who has his arms crossed" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354947/original/file-20200826-7049-58htye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354947/original/file-20200826-7049-58htye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354947/original/file-20200826-7049-58htye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354947/original/file-20200826-7049-58htye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354947/original/file-20200826-7049-58htye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354947/original/file-20200826-7049-58htye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354947/original/file-20200826-7049-58htye.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">At G7 summits like this one in 2018, it’s often Trump against the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-photo-provided-by-the-german-government-press-news-photo/971491304?adppopup=true">Jesco Denzel /Bundesregierung via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<h2>3. Embracing dictators and autocrats</h2>
<p>Trump believes his three meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2018 and 2019 – a landmark initiative of his administration – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-trump/trump-says-north-korea-no-longer-a-nuclear-threat-idUSKBN1J915T">fixed the North Korea threat</a>. But most analysts find <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-08-24/north-korea-trump-foreign-policy">North Korea was actually emboldened</a> by American diplomatic engagement. It is now <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-may-have-built-nuclear-weapons-trump-kim-summit-7-2019">speeding up its nuclear program</a>.</p>
<p>Conciliatory behavior toward Kim is part of a trend: Trump has embraced some of the world’s most <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-praises-turkish-president-erdogan-in-rnc-panel-with-pastor-andrew-brunson-hostage-held-by-turkey">notorious dictators and autocrats</a>. </p>
<p>In Europe, Trump is on good terms only with the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/13/trump-latest-viktor-orban-hungary-prime-minister-white-house">proudly undemocratic leaders of Hungary</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-election-trump/trump-congratulates-polish-president-dudas-historic-re-election-idUSKCN24E32E">Poland</a>. He called Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah el Sisi “<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-called-egyptian-president-sisi-my-favorite-dictator-g7-2019-9">my favorite dictator</a>” and refused to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nuclear-saudi/u-s-shared-nuclear-power-info-with-saudi-arabia-after-khashoggi-killed-idUSKCN1T52ER">punish Saudi Arabia</a> after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/06/19/734157980/u-n-report-implicates-saudi-crown-prince-in-killing-of-jamal-khashoggi">implicated in the brutal murder of the Saudi Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi</a> in October 2018. Instead, the White House permitted <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nuclear-saudi/u-s-shared-nuclear-power-info-with-saudi-arabia-after-khashoggi-killed-idUSKCN1T52ER">two U.S. companies to share sensitive nuclear power information</a> with the Saudis. </p>
<p>The administration’s relations with Russia, which <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/08/18/903512647/senate-report-former-trump-aide-paul-manafort-shared-campaign-info-with-russia">surreptitiously aided Trump’s 2016 campaign</a>, are unusual.</p>
<p>On the whole, his government has pursued a tough policy toward Russia, including imposing harsher sanctions and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-poland/russia-will-respond-to-new-u-s-deployment-in-poland-lawmakers-idUSKCN1TE0XK">deploying new NATO forces to the Polish border</a> to protect Eastern Europe.</p>
<p>But Trump has <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/446392-trumps-evolving-remarks-on-russian-election-interference">denied</a> Russian interfered in the U.S. election, and he talks to Putin <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644008.2018.1428309">more frequently than he does to allies like German Chancellor Angela Merkel</a> or British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In June he pressed those leaders <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52885178">to invite Putin to a G-7 meeting in Washington</a>. They rejected the idea; Russia was expelled from the club of elite nations after Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, part of Ukraine. </p>
<p>Soon after, news broke that Moscow promised to pay Taliban fighters to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/politics/russia-afghanistan-bounties.html">kill American soldiers in Afghanistan</a>. Trump dismissed U.S. intelligence on the matter as “fake news.” Several former national security officials say that Trump <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-russia-bounties-taliban-putin-call-4a0f6110-ab58-41c0-96fc-57b507462af1.html">wishes to avoid antagonizing Putin</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354908/original/file-20200826-16-zq8lcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Russia's President Vladimir Putin offers a 2018 football World Cup ball to US President Donald Trump." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354908/original/file-20200826-16-zq8lcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354908/original/file-20200826-16-zq8lcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354908/original/file-20200826-16-zq8lcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354908/original/file-20200826-16-zq8lcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354908/original/file-20200826-16-zq8lcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354908/original/file-20200826-16-zq8lcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354908/original/file-20200826-16-zq8lcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Putin and Trump have maintained warm personal relations, even as the U.S. pursues a rather tough Russia policy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/russias-president-vladimir-putin-offers-a-ball-of-the-2018-news-photo/1000198828?adppopup=true">Yuri Kadobnov/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Election 2020</h2>
<p>Trump has no such qualms with China, a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-china-exclusive/exclusive-trump-says-china-wants-him-to-lose-his-bid-for-re-election-idUSKBN22C01F">clear bogeyman of his reelection campaign</a>. Trump has been consistently critical of China, even retaliating against what he calls <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-china-trade-pact-president-trump-just-signed-fails-to-resolve-3-fundamental-issues-130017">unfair trade practices</a> with his own trade war. </p>
<p>Though tough on the U.S. economy, this stance has some bipartisan approval in Washington and among U.S. allies. China’s refusal to stop <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2184707/why-chinas-subsidised-state-owned-enterprises-anger-us-europe">subsidizing many state-owned enterprises</a>, grant greater market access to foreign firms and protect intellectual property rights are issues of great global concern, as is its <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ad0bda86-2be9-11e8-9b4b-bc4b9f08f381">increasingly assertive foreign policy</a>. Still, many U.S. China experts believe Trump’s crude rhetorical attacks are <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/why-trump-will-never-win-his-new-cold-war-with-china">unhelpful for finding a constructive way forward</a>. </p>
<p>Even the administration’s most initially promising diplomatic initiatives – engaging North Korea, <a href="https://theconversation.com/afghanistans-peace-process-is-stalled-can-the-taliban-be-trusted-to-hold-up-their-end-of-the-deal-144335">ending the war in Afghanistan</a> and seeking to <a href="https://theconversation.com/historic-israel-deal-wont-likely-bring-peace-to-the-middle-east-144480">normalize Israel’s relationships with some of its Arab neighbors</a> – have not resolved these chronic international crises.</p>
<p>Back in 2016, “America First” <a href="https://apnews.com/6d69cbd89335498aaaff03dd0ae60a31/Analysis:-Trump-tilts-%27America-First%27-toward-%27America-Alone%27">seemed to promise a clear defense of U.S. primacy</a> in a changing world order. That appealed to many voters. </p>
<p>Today, the U.S. has all but <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/opinion/trump-soft-power.html">abdicated its position as the world’s most globally engaged power</a>. China and Russia are busily working to fill the vacuum.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144841/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Klaus W. Larres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In 2016 Trump promised to ‘shake the rust off America’s foreign policy.’ Four years later, it’s clearer what that looks like: a US that sits on the sidelines of world crises and collaborations alike.Klaus W. Larres, Richard M. Krasno Distinguished Professor; Adjunct Professor of the Curriculum in Peace, War and Defense, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1419252020-07-14T14:49:47Z2020-07-14T14:49:47ZCanada must navigate U.S.-China tensions by staying true to its values<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346647/original/file-20200709-22-ayp2ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C112%2C2910%2C1814&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In this June 2019 photo, U.S. President Donald Trump poses for a photo with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, western Japan</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Canadian government’s inability to navigate the ongoing rivalry between the United States and China has exposed a striking dysfunction in Canada’s foreign policy.</p>
<p>It speaks to a serious vulnerability in a nascent superpower conflict driven by <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/the-rise-of-techno-nationalism-and-the-paradox-at-its-core/">techno-nationalism</a> and populist politics. What’s clear is that both Beijing and Washington are willing to manipulate Canada’s rule of law system for their own political ends. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346356/original/file-20200708-19-1789pqc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meng Wanzhou is seen leaving her home to attend a court hearing in Vancouver in October 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Trump administration’s request to arrest and extradite Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wenzhou, followed by China’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/22/trudeau-canadians-arrest-huawei-333773">retaliatory detention</a> of Canadians <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/who-are-michael-kovrig-and-michael-spavor">Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor</a>, illustrate Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s helplessness and confusion on how to handle such a difficult situation. </p>
<p>In fact, near policy paralysis coupled with a “wait and see” approach appears to have guided the government throughout the crisis. </p>
<h2>Middle power interests</h2>
<p>The tragedy of Kovrig and Spavor’s imprisonment provides guidance on how <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/middle-power">middle power states</a> should navigate rivalries between more powerful nations. On the one hand, the Trump administration’s <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/01/04/america-first-is-only-making-the-world-worse-heres-a-better-approach/">America First policy</a> has shown its traditional allies are expendable, while Xi Jinping’s emboldened authoritarianism advocates the detention of foreigners for political leverage. Middle power states, meantime, must protect their values and interests. </p>
<p>But what is Canada’s national interest and what are Canadian values? Finding an agreed-upon set of non-partisan ethics is an emotional and a complex endeavour. Despite the difficulty, times of crisis require leaps of political faith in finding unity to build meaningful policy. </p>
<p>Now is one of those times. </p>
<p>As Canada becomes a playground in a great power rivalry, Canadians must prepare themselves for an era marked by fierce competition between the U.S. and China. A conflict with both global and regional implications, Canada is notably vulnerable given its geographic proximity to the United States and its economic <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/180606/t001a-eng.htm">interdependency</a> with both nations. </p>
<h2>Canada in a no-win situation</h2>
<p>There is a strong lesson for Canada and other middle power states. It’s clear now that Huawei is a <a href="https://www.fintrac-canafe.gc.ca/publications/general/faq-pep-eng">politically exposed</a> firm, and the American request to extradite Meng Wenzhou poses a significant risk for Canadians. As <a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3091333/canadas-duty-lies-freeing-kovrig-and-spavor-china-means-letting">David Zweig</a>, a professor emeritus at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, rightly points out, if Meng is deported, hundreds of thousands of Canadians in China will be in peril. Canada has been forced into a no-win situation. </p>
<p>Michael Kovrig’s wife, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/kovrig-spavor-nadjibulla-interview-1.5621981">Vina Nadjibulla</a>, has noted: “We cannot win a race to the bottom with China; we cannot become aggressive and confrontational because confrontation is not a strategy.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346650/original/file-20200709-26-1fd482a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at a news conference in Washington on July 1, 2020, in front of a video monitor showing Spavor, left, a Canadian businessman, and Kovrig, right, a former Canadian diplomat, detained in China since December 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Both Zweig and Nadjibulla, along with a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7105280/michael-kovrig-spavor-meng-wanzhou-letter/">powerful collective</a> of Canada’s political elite, are advocating for Meng’s release in exchange for the two Michaels. There is of course <a href="https://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/canada-must-reject-calls-release-meng-wanzhou-open-letter-prime-minister-trudeau/">fierce objection</a> to a prisoner swap, along with calls for tougher action while diplomatic efforts continue <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/06/25/trudeau-refuses-demands-to-release-meng-wanzhou-saying-it-would-put-millions-of-canadians-in-danger.html">behind the scenes</a>. </p>
<p>A prisoner swap would in fact undermine Canada’s credibility and signal to the world and our allies that Ottawa accepts hostage diplomacy. It would in many ways jeopardize Canada’s future relationship with Asia. </p>
<h2>Embracing human security</h2>
<p>While there is speculation that China and the United States are headed towards what’s known as a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/">Thucydides Trap</a> — which holds that war is inevitable when a rising power challenges a dominant state — Canada must prepare itself for the worst and find creative ways of navigate this superpower rivalry. </p>
<p>In doing so, Canadian policy-makers must understand that they’re in no position to change the behaviour of nuclear-armed, authoritarian China. To think otherwise is pure fantasy. </p>
<p>But Canada has options. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346651/original/file-20200709-18-3solli.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trudeau and Xi Jinping listen to opening remarks at a plenary session at the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, in June 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>First, the government should return to its post-Cold War roots and advocate clear principles of <a href="https://www.un.org/humansecurity/what-is-human-security/">human security</a>. Unlike traditional security, human security is a people-to-people, centred approach for understanding how communities can build capacity and resilience. As <a href="https://utorontopress.com/ca/freedom-from-fear-freedom-from-want-4">Kenneth Christie at Royal Roads University and I have written</a>, human security is fundamentally concerned with supporting good governance, human well-being and sustainable development.</p>
<p>Second, Canada should draw on its Cold War experience as a middle power state navigating great power rivalries through multilateral organizations. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/09/multilateralism-nearly-dead-s-terrible-news/598615/">The Trump administration’s retreat</a> from global institutions is an opportunity for Western allies to implement progressive policies with a clear focus on human security. While Canada has friends, it must do better in reminding them what we stand for. </p>
<p>Third, Canada should aggressively market its human security campaign within China’s vital <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative">Belt and Road Initiative</a> countries and the hallways of NATO, advocating human rights and the rule of law. Billboards should be placed on the sides of highways reminding allies how far their economic partners will go to meddle in a nation’s legal sovereignty should they not comply with their wishes. </p>
<p>China does not have to agree with Canada’s liberal democratic principles, nor should we force our values on China. </p>
<p>But the world needs to know how Canada’s sovereign rule of law has been steamrolled by two self-interested superpowers. And Canadians must stay true to our values and help other vulnerable and marginalized victims of great power rivalry.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141925/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert J. Hanlon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government seems helpless and confused on how to manage the tensions between the United States and China after being caught in the conflict’s crosshairs.Robert J. Hanlon, Associate Professor of International Relations and Asian Politics, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1022022018-08-27T10:16:21Z2018-08-27T10:16:21ZKenyatta has his work cut out for him as he navigates Trump’s world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233662/original/file-20180827-75975-7m7ib3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Epa-EFE/Daniel Irungu</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-visit-president-uhuru-kenyatta-kenya/">meeting</a> with his US counterpart Donald Trump at the White House carries symbolic as well as real value. </p>
<p>The two leaders have <a href="https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/05/26/uhuru-meets-trump-at-g7-summit-in-italy_c1568948">met once before</a> – on the sidelines of the 2017 G7 meeting in Italy. But this is the first official visit to the White House since Trump’s election and since Kenyatta’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41807317">highly controversial 2017 re-election</a>.</p>
<h2>So why the visit, and why now?</h2>
<p>The White House has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-visit-president-uhuru-kenyatta-kenya/">cast it</a> as an opportunity to deepen the strategic relationship between the two countries, and to advance mutual interests in trade, security and regional leadership by way of reaffirming</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Kenya’s position as a corner stone of peace and stability in Africa. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>For Kenyatta, it’s an opportunity to reset Kenya’s position as a leading regional actor and <a href="http://www.president.go.ke/2017/05/27/president-kenyatta-to-g7-work-with-africa-to-address-global-challenges/">Africa’s “ambassador”</a>.</p>
<p>From a strategic perspective, Kenya has been a crucial player in the war on terror given its frontier status with Somalia. It has been a <a href="http://amisom-au.org/kenya-kdf/">central player</a> in the UN African Union Mission to Somalia force that’s seeking defeat the Al-Shabaab terror group. </p>
<p>Kenya has suffered retaliatory action as a result of its role. Twenty years ago it was one of the first countries in Africa to bear the brunt of Al-Qaeda with a <a href="https://www.nation.co.ke/news/August-7-US-embassy-bombing-memorial-Nairobi-Kenya/1056-4701482-dp3r46/index.html">lethal terror attack in Nairobi</a>. This placed Kenya firmly in the position of a strategic player, ensuring the success of the war on terror in East and Central Africa for which the US has strategic interests.</p>
<p>So Kenyatta’s visit will seek to consolidate continuing US military support. This will be through various channels, among them the counter terrorism partnership fund and the combating terrorism fellowship programme. He will also want a commitment to the US’s continued military at Manda Bay and Camp Simba, a Kenya naval base for anti-terrorism operations.</p>
<p>Kenyatta has recently played a lead role as regional broker by hosting a number of peace initiatives in the South Sudan peace process. Despite <a href="https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/watch-south-sudan-claims-civil-war-is-over-but-scepticism-abounds-20180820">US reservations</a>, the most recent peace accord appears to be holding, with Kenya taking some credit for the tentative success. </p>
<p>The US will seek to ensure that Kenya continues to play a constructive leadership role and a guarantor of the peace process in South Sudan given its tremendous leverage on that country’s leadership.</p>
<p>Other pressing issues will include trade and foreign direct investment. Here Kenyatta will have to tread carefully given Kenya’s <a href="https://www.nation.co.ke/news/What-China-s-Xi-is-putting-on-the-table-for-Africa-meeting/1056-4728044-wxgqjp/index.html">increasingly close ties</a> with China.</p>
<p>And Kenyatta will have his work cut out trying to navigate Trump’s world. How he manages to gain meaningful compromise from an unpredictable and beleaguered host will be keenly watched both at home and far beyond.</p>
<h2>Banking on trade</h2>
<p>In many ways US-Kenya relations is in uncharted territory. And given Trump’s penchant for bilateralism, Kenyatta will hope to master the art of the deal by minimising the negative impact of “America first” agenda on Kenya-US trade relations.</p>
<p>During Barack Obama’s presidency, imports from Kenya <a href="https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/US-exports-to-Kenya-more-than-double-to-Sh137bn/539552-2605530-101lgb8/index.html">more than doubled </a>. In 2015, 12.3% of US AFRICA FDI went to Kenya. But Trump’s “America first” stance has led to a review of Africa partnerships as well as a renegotiation of bilateral trade agreements. </p>
<p>Amid this policy uncertainty, Kenyatta will want to discuss how to boost trade relations to augment Kenya’s domestic economy given the very broad economic agenda he has set himself to transform the country. Kenya’s economy had suffered from electoral volatility and a <a href="https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/FDI-inflows-to-Kenya-in-6-year-low/539546-4205288-12fl10w/index.html">slowdown in foreign direct investment</a>, particularly from the US. Kenyatta will be keen to explore how to jump start this with his US counterpart in addition to ensuring the continued robustness of the <a href="https://www.gtreview.com/news/africa/kenyas-agoa-eligibility-no-longer-under-us-review/">African Growth and Opportunity Act</a> (AGOA) from which Kenya has greatly benefited. </p>
<p>The Kenyan president can point to the fact that it remains a destination of choice for many <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001241150/kenya-s-role-in-region-africa-in-focus-as-uhuru-addresses-g7">US corporations</a> that have established themselves in the domestic economy. These include Coca-Cola, General Electric, Google and IBM.</p>
<h2>Kenya-China relations</h2>
<p>Kenya’s relationship with China has been <a href="https://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2015/january/china-agrees-to-boost-infrastructure-investment-in-kenya/">growing</a> in leaps and bounds. This is clear from the <a href="https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/China-tops-list-of-lenders-to-Kenya/1064-4306532-eab78nz/index.html">rise in foreign direct investment flows</a> from China over the past 10 years. </p>
<p>In addition, China has firmly developed a substantial economic and trade strategic relationship with Kenya – from manufacturing to infrastructure development. This hasn’t gone unnoticed by the US. The <a href="https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Kenya-to-sign-Sh380bn-SGR-deal-next-month/1056-4724506-k60h5lz/index.html">wide gauge railway project</a>, among many others, has established Beijing as an indispensable developmental partner. </p>
<p>To reflect this importance, one of Kenyatta’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/gdpr-consent/?destination=%2fworld%2fin-snub-to-washington-kenyan-president-visits-china-russia-in-first-official-visit-outside-africa%2f2013%2f08%2f17%2fbaaed162-06a4-11e3-bfc5-406b928603b2_story.html%3f&utm_term=.ba6927723736">first foreign trips</a> was to Beijing. </p>
<p>This growing closeness has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/09/us-tillerson-warns-against-china-loans-to-africa.html">caused concern in Washington</a>. The US is keen to retain its traditional sphere of influence and is often wary of other players, particularly China, chipping away at it. </p>
<p>With the increasing trade war with China, the US will seek reassurance that its interests in the region will not be compromised by Beijing’s increasing aggressive overtures in Kenya as well as in the region more broadly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E Kiwuwa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In many ways US-Kenya relations is in uncharted territory.David E Kiwuwa, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/897252018-01-08T12:45:18Z2018-01-08T12:45:18ZWoodrow Wilson’s famous US speech makes a mockery of Donald Trump<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201129/original/file-20180108-83563-ej88x6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Thomas Woodrow Wilson (1856-1934)</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson#/media/File:President_Wilson_1919.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We have reached the centenary of US President Woodrow Wilson’s speech to Congress on January 8, 1918, outlining his <a href="http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/wilson14.asp">Fourteen Points</a> for brokering a lasting peace in Europe after World War I. It was the famous roar of idealism from across the Atlantic that would be <a href="https://www.historyonthenet.com/world-war-one-the-treaty-of-versailles/">whittled back</a> in the name of self-interest by the victorious allies at Versailles the following year. </p>
<p>The speech would go on to shape many features of American foreign policy, however, particularly the broader points like open diplomacy, removal of economic and trade barriers, freedom of the seas and a general association of nations working together. Wilson <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/woodrow-wilson-suffers-a-stroke">would suffer</a> a stroke that would partially paralyse him in the fallout from Versailles, but his Congress speech would ensure his legacy as one of America’s most influential presidents. </p>
<p>The centenary takes place just days before the anniversary of the inauguration of Donald Trump. With the media currently full of the astonishing claims about the administration contained in <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/05/michael-wolff-claims-spent-three-hours-talking-donald-trump/">Michael Wolff’s new book</a>, one wonders what the 45th president’s legacy will be. Certainly foreign policy looks more uncertain than for many years. What, then, do the Fourteen Points tell us about Donald Trump?</p>
<h2>America front and centre</h2>
<p>Wilson’s speech that day in 1918 reflected his conviction that the United States should take a central place on the world stage – securing global peace and stability while furthering American interests at the same time. His approach would be largely rejected by his countrymen during the isolationist 1920s and 1930s, before ultimately coming to define many Americans’ view of their country’s role in the world. </p>
<p>Since Trump came to power last January, it looks as if America has entered a new era. Many conservatives and rural middle Americans – the bedrock of President Trump’s support – have long been suspicious of America’s global role and complained about the ways in which the country’s foreign policy has been viewed by the rest of the world. </p>
<p>They feel that when America intervenes – as in the first Gulf War or in Afghanistan – it is accused of putting self-interest before the good of the international community. But when it doesn’t intervene – as in Bosnia or Syria – the accusations are little different. Why, they argue, should the United States be the world’s policeman? </p>
<p>This is clearly reflected in Trump’s <a href="http://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2017/">National Security Strategy</a>. Released in mid-December, it rejects many of the principles of previous American foreign policy, stating quite clearly that it must be “guided by outcomes, not ideology”. It is pure realpolitik. </p>
<p>The document promises explicitly to “put the safety, interests and well-being of our citizens first”. This includes building <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-mexico-has-nothing-to-fear-from-donald-trump-55362">the infamous wall</a> along America’s border with Mexico, withdrawing from many trade agreements which it sees as unfair, and beginning a substantial conventional and nuclear arms build up. It is America first from top to bottom – almost point by point a rejection of the ideas contained in Wilson’s Fourteen Points. </p>
<h2>The great game</h2>
<p>If this Trump strategy rejects the 20th-century concept of internationalism, it has surprising echoes of much earlier mid-19th century diplomacy. It says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>After being dismissed as a phenomenon of an earlier century, great power competition has returned.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Trump developed this point while outlining his policy to journalists, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/donald-trump-new-era-global-competition-america-going-to-win/4169607.html">explaining</a>: “America is in the game, and America is going to win.” The idea that foreign policy is a great game that can be won has echoes of Victorian men’s clubs, and is one of the most worrying changes initiated by Trump’s administration. It suggests a binary explanation of the world where there are only winners and losers, where those not participating in the game can be ignored. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201136/original/file-20180108-83556-wy6yex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bird brain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/america-first-presidential-inauguration-pledge-isolated-560804350?src=EV8H1eezXw3XBcsYfMYJ6A-1-58">Barry Barnes</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But perhaps the most concerning shift of all, which probably echoes Trump’s personality more than his policy advisers, is the determination to conduct foreign policy “without apology”. Not only will the US put its own interests first, in other words, it will not deeply consider the interests of its allies. </p>
<p>Two recent policy changes reflect this. Following America’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-climate-usa-paris-idUSKBN1AK2FM">withdrawal</a> from the Paris Climate Agreement, the security strategy makes no mention of climate change as one of the issues facing the world, although it repeatedly discusses “the business climate”. </p>
<p>An even clearer rejection of internationalism was the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-trumps-declaration-on-jerusalem-mean-to-palestinians-88841">December 6 decision</a> to move the American Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This was apparently against the specific advice of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, both of whom feared the impact on American diplomatic influence in the Middle East. </p>
<h2>Big button diplomacy</h2>
<p>This brings us to Twitter. Rather like 19th-century diplomats, where telegrams could spark wars, Trump seems often to have resorted to “Twitter diplomacy” to shape, or more often seemingly frustrate, American foreign policy. </p>
<p>President Teddy Roosevelt famously counselled that American foreign policy should “speak softly, and carry a big stick”. Perhaps nothing sums up Trump’s contrast to his predecessors than his tweeting – most recently the <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/02/politics/donald-trump-north-korea-nuclear/index.html">New Year’s Day reminder</a> to North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un, in language more reminiscent of a primary school playground than international diplomats, that “I too have a nuclear button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his”. </p>
<p>None of this is to lionise Wilson, it should be said. America’s 28th president was no progressive <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/11/wilson-legacy-racism/417549/">on race</a>, for example, and he <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/wilson/foreign-affairs">invaded</a> Haiti and the Dominican Republic. </p>
<p>But his Fourteen Points speech remains one of the great pieces of statesmanship of the modern era. Where it fought hard for stability, President Trump’s foreign policy seems more likely to produce instability. Where it fought for openness, the Trump administration turns inwards. It is a moment to reflect on what American leadership offered the world 100 years ago, and what it might learn to offer again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89725/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Ward does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>America finds itself in uncharted territory under Donald Trump – not least when it comes to climate change and Israel policy.Matthew Ward, Senior Lecturer in History, University of DundeeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/892792017-12-19T01:39:48Z2017-12-19T01:39:48ZWhy Trump’s plan to forbid spouses of H-1B visa holders to work is a bad idea<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199824/original/file-20171219-27595-v5b083.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. immigration law has a complicated history with keeping families together. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Brian Snyder</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Dec. 14, the Trump administration announced a <a href="https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201710&RIN=1615-AC15.">regulatory change</a> that would strip spouses of high-skilled foreign workers of the right to work in the United States. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2017/12/15/White-House-exploring-an-end-to-H-4-visa-program-for-spouses-of-H-1B-visa-holders/4811513351165/">apparent aim</a> is to promote Trump’s “Buy American, Hire American” <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-executive-order-buy-american-hire-american/">executive order</a> issued in April. It’s also part of efforts to <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/archive/uscis-will-temporarily-suspend-premium-processing-all-h-1b-petitions">scale back</a> the H-1B visa program, which allows workers to bring spouses and children under H-4 visas. </p>
<p>Besides likely having a negative impact on industries that use H-1B visas, such as information technology, software development and finance, my own research shows that it will also, intentionally or not, disproportionately harm women. </p>
<h2>Immigration policy and families</h2>
<p>There is no shortage of opinions about the merits and drawbacks of the H-1B program. </p>
<p>Critics argue that the program has been abused by companies that seek to <a href="https://theconversation.com/candidates-plans-to-change-controversial-h-1b-guestworker-program-highlight-need-for-an-overhaul-55482">replace</a> American workers or pay them <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w23153">lower wages</a>. Advocates, meanwhile, point out that foreign workers increase <a href="http://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/%7Eanno/Papers/EDQ_on_immigrants_2002.pdf">innovation</a> and bring in <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/h-1b-visas-and-the-stem-shortage/">much-needed</a> high-skilled labor. </p>
<p>But there is another consideration left out of this debate: how the program directly affects the lives of the workers and their families. </p>
<p>Historically, family reunification has played a contentious role in U.S. immigration policy. Starting with the <a href="http://library.uwb.edu/Static/USimmigration/1875_page_law.html">Page Law of 1875</a> and the <a href="http://library.uwb.edu/Static/USimmigration/1882_chinese_exclusion_act.html">Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882</a>, women (predominately from Asia) were barred from migrating either as spouses or on their own. These laws were responsible for creating “bachelor societies” of immigrant men and <a href="http://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2174&context=facpubs">limited</a> the establishment of permanent Asian communities in the United States. </p>
<p>Changes to immigration <a href="http://library.uwb.edu/Static/USimmigration/1943_magnuson_act.html">law</a> in the mid-20th century began to recognize the need for family migration. The <a href="http://library.uwb.edu/Static/USimmigration/1965_immigration_and_nationality_act.html">Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965</a> further reversed earlier policy by giving naturalized citizens and legal permanent residents the power to sponsor family members and made reunification a weighted factor for immigration consideration. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/101st-congress/senate-bill/358">1990 law</a> opened new avenues for family-based migration, creating the H-1B as a “temporary nonimmigrant visa” that prioritized highly skilled workers whose labor was needed for “<a href="https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations-dod-cooperative-research-and-development-project-workers-and-fashion-models">specialized and complex</a>” jobs. </p>
<p>The visa is typically issued for three to six years to employers to hire a foreign worker. If employers choose to sponsor them, visa holders can then apply for permanent residency. </p>
<p>It also created the H-4 family reunification visa. Even though the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services <a href="https://www.computerworld.com/article/3050365/it-careers/how-many-h-1b-workers-are-male-us-wont-say.html">doesn’t</a> release gender data, some <a href="https://www.computerworld.com/article/3050365/it-careers/how-many-h-1b-workers-are-male-us-wont-say.html">estimate</a> that 85 percent of H-1Bs go to men. It is safe to presume that women make up the majority of H-4 spousal visas. </p>
<p>They are among the 22 “<a href="https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-states/temporary-nonimmigrant-workers">nonimmigrant</a>” visa categories that have family reunification provisions, but, like most of them, come with work restrictions. </p>
<h2>The impact of work restrictions</h2>
<p>Work authorization for the spouses of H-1B visa holders came into the spotlight in 2015. </p>
<p>The Obama administration issued an <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/news/dhs-extends-eligibility-employment-authorization-certain-h-4-dependent-spouses-h-1b-nonimmigrants-seeking-employment-based-lawful-permanent-residence">executive order</a> that year that allowed H-4 visa holders who were already in the process of applying for lawful permanent residency to also apply for employment authorization. Prior to the order, H-4 holders were unable to work or obtain a social security number.</p>
<p>The work authorization document is conditional, however. If the possessor’s spouse loses his H-1B visa, then the H-4 visa holder would also lose her authorization to work in the U.S. </p>
<p>I conducted a multi-year <a href="http://www.washington.edu/uwpress/search/books/BHAATH.html">study</a> of H-1B and H-4 visa holders that ended just after President Barack Obama’s 2015 order. My findings clearly showed the long-lasting negative effects of these work restrictions and how important work authorization is for immigrant families.</p>
<p>Even though spouses of H-1B workers tend to be <a href="https://qz.com/797831/the-h4-visa-and-the-desperation-of-indian-housewives-in-america/">highly educated</a>, often in STEM fields, after coming to the U.S. they effectively became housewives. Women are unable to contribute to the household financially and become dependent on their husbands. They cannot apply for changes in their immigration status without going through the primary visa holder. </p>
<p>This means that if an H-4 visa holder were to experience domestic violence, for example, she would be unable to leave without putting her visa status in <a href="https://law.ubalt.edu/centers/caf/pdf/Sabrina%20Balgamwalla.pdf">jeopardy</a>. </p>
<p>While Citizenship and Immigration Services did issue a <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/2016/2016-0308_PM-602-0130_Eligibility_for_Employment_Authorization_for_Battered_Spouses_of_Certain_Nonimmigrants.pdf">memorandum</a> in 2016 granting work authorization to abused spouses of nonimmigrants under the Violence Against Women Act, victims must have <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/forms/employment-authorization-certain-abused-nonimmigrant-spouses">proof</a> of abuse, such as police reports, court records or reports from social service agencies. As advocates have <a href="https://vawnet.org/sites/default/files/materials/files/2016-09/AR_Immigrant.pdf">shown</a>, this can be difficult for immigrant women to obtain, and many would rather <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/03/21/520841332/fear-of-deportation-spurs-4-women-to-drop-domestic-abuse-cases-in-denver">drop domestic violence</a> cases than risk deportation.</p>
<p>In cases where an H-1B worker loses his job or experiences something worse, the rest of the family could be deported. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199819/original/file-20171219-27538-1nfr2i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199819/original/file-20171219-27538-1nfr2i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199819/original/file-20171219-27538-1nfr2i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199819/original/file-20171219-27538-1nfr2i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199819/original/file-20171219-27538-1nfr2i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199819/original/file-20171219-27538-1nfr2i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199819/original/file-20171219-27538-1nfr2i5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sunayana Dumala was denied entry into the U.S. after attending the funeral in India of her husband, an H-1B worker who was murdered.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Orlin Wagner</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This point was driven home dramatically in the case of Sunayana Dumala, the widow of H-1B worker Srinivas Kuchibhotla, who was <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/adam-purinton-shooting-olathe-kansas/">murdered</a> in Kansas by a white supremacist in February. After she returned to India for Kuchibhotla’s funeral, she was barred from reentering the U.S. since her deceased husband’s visa was no longer valid. Dumala’s state congressman intervened personally to help obtain her temporary work authorization and to apply for her own H-1B visa or a “U” visa, usually reserved for immigrant victims of crime. </p>
<p>Her case, which had the rare aid of a member of Congress, brings home the precariousness that dependents of temporary immigrant workers face.</p>
<p>Even in less horrific cases, the forced hiatus from the workplace that women face on the H-4 hurts their long-term career prospects. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/11/magazine/the-opt-out-generation-wants-back-in.html?pagewanted=all">Research</a> has shown women who leave or are pushed out of the workforce wherever they are in the world have a much harder time reentering the job market.</p>
<p>This issue is compounded by the fact that H-4 holders must find an employer to sponsor them on an H-1B, which are already in short supply, or <a href="http://www.timesnownews.com/international/article/indian-it-professionals-us-green-cards-backlogs-h-1b-visas-techies-immigration/111499">wait</a> potentially seven to 10 years until they become permanent residents to restart their careers. </p>
<p>H-4 women face a triple burden if they are able to start working again, particularly in technology: race, gender and long gaps in their resumes. </p>
<h2>Welcome relief</h2>
<p>Considering the negative impacts of H-4 work restrictions, the Obama-era rule change granting work authorization was <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/eastside/high-tech-workers-spouses-welcome-new-immigration-rules/">welcome relief</a> for tens of thousands of dependent spouses. </p>
<p>For women who have been stymied at home, the chance to join the workforce is important both financially and <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/10/technology/h4-work-permits-trump/index.html">psychologically</a>, particularly in areas where H-1B workers are concentrated such as Silicon Valley, Seattle and New York. </p>
<p>For example, having two incomes offsets the high cost of living in regions where H-1B workers <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2015/04/02/the-h-1b-visa-race-continues-which-regions-received-the-most/">are concentrated</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2013/sdn1310.pdf">women’s participation</a> in the workforce <a href="http://reports.weforum.org/global-gender-gap-report-2015/the-case-for-gender-equality/">can translate</a> into greater gender equity at home.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, there has already been backlash to this expansion of the temporary workforce, including via a <a href="http://www.immigration.com/sites/default/files/SaveJobs-Lawsuit.pdf">lawsuit</a> to halt H-4 work authorization. Although that suit was initially rejected, now the Trump administration’s planned rule change revives the issue. </p>
<h2>What now</h2>
<p>As my research has shown, when women are given opportunities to grow their careers and become economically productive, they are more likely to stay in the U.S.</p>
<p>Losing talented workers who have already invested significant time and money (workers pay social security and other taxes regardless of immigration status) in the U.S. will deal a blow to our standing as the locus of technological innovation. There has already been a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-17/h-1b-applications-drop-as-u-s-employers-anticipate-reforms">drop</a> in the numbers of H-1B applications received in 2017 as foreign workers grow wary of the current political climate in the U.S. This latest restriction will only create more hesitation.</p>
<p>The H-1B program is undoubtedly in need of reform. Obama’s 2015 executive actions on immigration were far from perfect and left many problems unresolved, such as what will happen to children of H-1B workers who “age out” of their dependent visas after they turn 21 years old. Many have spent the majority of their childhoods in the U.S. but still are not permanent residents. They are left in limbo and, like the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-dreamers-and-green-card-lottery-winners-strengthen-the-us-economy-82571">Dreamers</a>,” potentially face the prospect of <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/returning-to-india/why-children-of-h-1b-workers-may-now-have-to-leave-america/articleshow/61166125.cms">returning</a> to countries that they have never known. </p>
<p>Withdrawing work authorization for spouses who have been living in the U.S. for more than half a decade is a step in the wrong direction. Immigration reform needs more compassion, not less.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89279/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Bhatt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scholar explains why the president’s plan to overturn his predecessor’s rule would be a big mistake and disproportionately harm women.Amy Bhatt, Associate Professor of Gender and Women's Studies, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/845502017-09-22T22:43:34Z2017-09-22T22:43:34ZShould America be the world’s cop? What the experts say<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187222/original/file-20170922-28496-16znswd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When is might right?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glynnis Jones / Shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: As part of our collaboration with “<a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/third-rail/home/">Third Rail with OZY</a>,” we asked scholars from a variety of disciplines to answer the question: “Should America be the world’s cop?”</em></p>
<h2>A rationale for intervention</h2>
<p><strong>Abram Van Engen, Washington University in St. Louis</strong></p>
<p>Many American presidents have claimed that the United States has a distinct responsibility to fight for freedom across the world. </p>
<p>In 2005, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/jan/20/uselections2004.usa">President George W. Bush declared</a>, “It is the policy of the United States to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.” </p>
<p>In 2014, after affirming his belief in American exceptionalism, <a href="http://time.com/4341783/obamas-commencement-transcript-speech-west-point-2014/">President Barack Obama claimed</a> that America stands “for the more lasting peace that can only come through opportunity and freedom for people everywhere.” For him, “American leadership” entails “our willingness to act on behalf of human dignity.” </p>
<p>Rising out of the Cold War era and continuing through the Obama presidency, there came to be some consensus on the rhetoric for interventions abroad.</p>
<p>These days, the rhetoric has changed. </p>
<p>President Donald Trump has replaced American exceptionalism with “America First.” Now, the United States is not distinct from other countries. We are a nation like any other, <a href="http://time.com/4640707/donald-trump-inauguration-speech-transcript/">says Trump</a>, and “it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first.” In <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/28/us/politics/transcript-trump-foreign-policy.html?mcubz=0&_r=0">his 2016 foreign policy address</a>, Trump called it “a dangerous idea” to believe “that we could make Western democracies out of countries that had no experience or interests in becoming a Western democracy.” </p>
<p>Last week, for the first time, Trump attempted to blend America First with American exceptionalism. In <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/09/19/remarks-president-trump-72nd-session-united-nations-general-assembly">his speech to the United Nations</a>, he claimed, “In America, we do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example for everyone to watch.” America should model its way, but not intervene in the ways of others.</p>
<p>Yet the rest of the speech went on to call for interventions. It did so on the basis of sovereignty. All nations, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/09/19/remarks-president-trump-72nd-session-united-nations-general-assembly">Trump declared</a>, must uphold “these two core sovereign duties: to respect the interests of their own people and the rights of every other sovereign nation.”</p>
<p>Then he launched into North Korea, Venezuela and Iran, asserting these countries did not respect their own people or the sovereignty of others. In those cases, he claimed, America would intervene.</p>
<p>Though contradictions abound in the speech, Trump’s position became abundantly clear: The world will be better off, he believes, if every nation becomes more self-interested.</p>
<p>This is a vision of the world defined not by the rhetoric of freedom, opportunity, immigration, asylum or any traditional language of American exceptionalism. Instead, Trump’s vision is defined by sovereignty and self-interest. He is more than willing to use the might of the military, but under very different terms.</p>
<h2>Know when to fight</h2>
<p><strong>Dennis Jett, Pennsylvania State University</strong></p>
<p>America cannot be the world’s cop, but it must not walk away from its broader responsibilities, as the administration in power in Washington is attempting to do. No country, not even the world’s only superpower, can be the policeman of the entire planet. The challenge for the United States is to decide where to engage and how. </p>
<p>You don’t have to have been a career diplomat, as I was, to understand that President Trump, in his <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/09/19/remarks-president-trump-72nd-session-united-nations-general-assembly">debut speech this week at the U.N. General Assembly</a>, demonstrated he does not know how to make those decisions. He certainly respects sovereignty, since he mentioned it 21 times in explaining his “<a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-america-first-echoes-from-1940s-59579">America First</a>” foreign policy. He did reserve the right to take action against his axis of evil – Venezuela, Iran, Syria and North Korea – but otherwise made clear the United States was not much interested in the rest of the world. Autocrats outside the four countries he called out were no doubt applauding the green light he gave them to continue repressing and stealing from their people. </p>
<p>Being a good cop includes encouraging respect for the law and not just shooting suspects. And nation building by supporting democracy can be far more effective than using force – assuming the citizens of that nation are willing to build it rather than just fight over the spoils. </p>
<p>Trump – who has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/world/europe/trump-press-united-nations.html?mcubz=1">assaulted the media</a>, convened a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-voter-fraud-crusades-undermine-voting-rights-71966">highly controversial voter fraud commission</a> and <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2017/01/trumps-bogus-voter-fraud-claims-revisited/">dishonestly asserted</a> he lost the popular vote because three million illegal immigrants cast ballots – has demonstrated he has little respect for democracy at home. So, it is not surprising that he shows no concern for it abroad. That is short-sighted; American leadership matters. He can build all the walls he wants, but they won’t keep out the problems presented by globalization.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84550/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abram Van Engen has received funding for his work from the National Endowment for the Humanities. Any views, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the National Endowment for the Humanities.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis Jett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most Americans don’t want the United States to be the world’s policeman. Do the experts agree?Dennis Jett, Professor of International Affairs, Penn StateAbram Van Engen, Associate Professor of English, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/814632017-08-11T00:59:50Z2017-08-11T00:59:50ZRise in globalism doesn’t mean the end for nationalists<p>Are you more of a nationalist or a cosmopolitan? Or both?</p>
<p>Recent events suggest that a nationalist backlash to globalization is <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21710249-his-call-put-america-first-donald-trump-latest-recruit-dangerous">on the rise</a>. The United Kingdom’s decision to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887">leave</a> the European Union, Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election and the growing popularity of right-wing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/world/europe/europe-far-right-political-parties-listy.html?_r=0">parties</a> in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/18/nation-state-marine-le-pen-global-mood-france-brexit-trump-front-national">France</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/01/opinion/the-freedom-partys-second-chance-in-austria.html">Austria</a> and <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/germanys-far-right-rises-again-214543">Germany</a> attest to this. </p>
<p>Liberals in particular are puzzled by the <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2017-03-15/a-look-at-global-neo-nationalism-after-brexit-and-donald-trumps-election">spike in nationalism</a> on a global scale. Some may wonder, where have all the global citizens gone? The answer, I argue, is nowhere. The confusion comes in because the ideal of a selfless global citizen, someone who puts global issues above national interests, does not really exist. </p>
<p>It’s true. Data from the World Values Survey shows that since the early 1990s, the integration of markets, communities and cultures has bred a new generation of people who consider themselves “cosmopolitan,” or global citizens. The World Values Survey was started by social scientists in 1981, and is often conducted face-to-face with representative samples of adults from each country. Researchers such as Pippa Norris and Roland Inglehart, among others, have also used the World Values Survey data to identify trends in <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Cosmopolitan-Communications-Diversity-Globalized-Communication/dp/0521738385">cosmopolitanism</a>.</p>
<p>Three-fourths of nearly 85,000 adult respondents from 60 countries surveyed by the <a href="http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jsp">World Values Survey</a> between 2010 and 2014 identified as global citizens.</p>
<p>However, my <a href="http://burcubayram.net/Research_files/Bayram_Draft_Nationalist%20Cosmopolitanism.pdf">research</a> shows that global citizenship and nationalism are not mutually exclusive.</p>
<h2>Global citizens love their country</h2>
<p>Of those who strongly identified as global citizens in the latest round of the World Values Survey, 82 percent also strongly identified with their nation, and 74 percent are highly proud of their nation.</p>
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<p>About 68 percent of the 2,176 respondents from the U.S. expressed either a strong or a moderate degree of global citizenship. Of these global citizens, more than 46 percent also strongly identify with the United States, and 61 percent are very proud to be American. Similar patterns exist in Europe, the Middle East and Asia.</p>
<p>This data suggests that most global citizens do not shed their national identity. Global citizens are still protective of national interests.</p>
<p>Consider this. The <a href="http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSDocumentationWV5.jsp">2005-2009 World Values Survey</a> included a question (not repeated in the latest round) that asked respondents whether their nation’s leaders should give top priority to help reduce poverty in the world, or solve their own country’s problems. About 62 percent of those who identified as global citizens said they would put their country’s problems first. The policy implication of this is that global citizens are not necessarily interested in increasing foreign development aid to poor countries.</p>
<p>Many global citizens also take a hard-line stance on immigration. Of those who strongly identified as global citizens, more than 36 percent supported making immigration conditional on the availability of jobs. Some 35 percent preferred placing strict limits on immigration, and about 12 percent supported a total ban. Only about 16 percent of global citizens favored unrestricted movement of people.</p>
<p>When it comes to requirements for citizenship, many global citizens supported models of citizenship that require ancestral bonds. About 70 percent of those who strongly identified as global citizens said ancestry is important in qualifying for citizenship.</p>
<h2>What is global citizenship then?</h2>
<p>What this data suggest is that while many see global citizenship and nationalism as <a href="https://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/07/10/when-and-why-nationalism-beats-globalism/">polar opposites</a>, they are not. The growth of the number of people who identify as global citizens does not mean nationalist concerns, hawkish foreign policies and isolationism are concepts of the past. For many, being a global citizen and a nationalist go hand in hand.</p>
<p>Global citizenship is an acquired social identity that is shaped by how individuals prioritize <a href="http://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/orpc/vol2/iss1/11/">values</a> such as universalism and self-enhancement. As I show in my <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1354066114541879">article</a> published in the <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/home/ejt">European Journal of International Relations</a>, global citizenship is compatible with both selfish and altruistic values. While some global citizens are motivated by universal moral concerns such as protecting the environment and the welfare of human beings, others are simply driven by egoistic motives. And these egoistic motives can be used to protect the nation. </p>
<p>The million-dollar question is, how do people really understand global citizenship? Right now, we have a better idea of what global citizenship is not than of what it is. Global citizens do not seem to like conformity, status quo and convention, but they like the nation and even put it first.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Throughout her career, A. Burcu Bayram received funding from The Ohio State University, Mershon Center for International Security Studies, American Political Science Association, Fritz Thyssen Foundation. </span></em></p>Data show that many people who consider themselves ‘global citizens’ also harbor strong national sentiments. The two aren’t mutually exclusive.A. Burcu Bayram, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of ArkansasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/800292017-06-27T14:57:54Z2017-06-27T14:57:54ZAfrica is high on the G20 summit agenda. But will Trump thwart progress?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175817/original/file-20170627-24817-l8pllb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">German Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses G20 health ministers in Berlin in May. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Fabrizio Bensch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When G20 leaders meet in <a href="http://www.hamburg.com/g20-2017/">Hamburg in early July</a> they face a problem not on their formal agenda: how to work around Donald Trump. The US president disdains multilateral financial cooperation, is opposed to US participation in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-for-china-and-europe-to-lead-as-trump-dumps-the-paris-climate-deal-78709">Paris Agreement on climate change</a> , has shown little interest in, knowledge of, or desire to partner with African countries.</p>
<p>These core issues frame the 2017 <a href="http://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/EN/Standardartikel/Topics/Featured/G20/2017-03-30-g20-compact-with-africa.html">G20 agenda</a> with a proposed <a href="http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/2017/161130-agenda.html">“Compact with Africa”</a> slated as the summit’s big initiative. It’s aims will be to encourage private sector investment, support infrastructure development, and greater economic participation and employment in Africa.</p>
<p>In addition to South Africa, the G20’s only African member, the leaders of Guinea, Kenya and Senegal have been invited as guests. </p>
<p>The US convened the first <a href="http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/summits/2008washington.html">2008 G20 Summit</a> in Washington in response to the global financial crisis and has played a leading and constructive role ever since. Such experiments in informal global governance are an anathema to Trump, although he lacks <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/opinion/donald-trump-poisons-the-world.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-%E2%80%A6">any experience</a> in such matters. </p>
<p>If Africa is to gain the attention in Hamburg the agenda promises, this will have to be without the support and cooperation of the US, at least while Trump is president. But can anything be achieved while this is the case? </p>
<p>If the G20 is to remain relevant in the quest for more inclusive and fair global governance, Africa offers an historic opportunity for collective action, despite US absence. Most urgent is alleviating <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/no-one-is-paying-attention-to-the-worst-humanitarian-crisis-since-world-war-ii/2017/06/25/70d055f8-5767-11e7-ba90-f5875b7d1876_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-e%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.44e26a3031b">the famine in East Africa</a> while China, India, and others among the G20 are showing fresh interest in Africa’s long-term peace and development. </p>
<h2>The Trump factor</h2>
<p>Trump’s first and <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/24/politics/trump-nato-brussels/index.html">only exposure to multilateral summit diplomacy</a> was at NATO’s Brussels headquarters on 25 May. Then immediately to a two-day <a href="http://www.g7italy.it/en/the-taormina-g7-summit">G-7 summit</a> in Sicily. Neither went well. More significant than all the negative media coverage of Trump’s performance, was German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/28/world/europe/angela-merkel-trump-alliances-g7-leaders.html?_r=0">veiled warning</a> that after 70 years, the US under Trump was no longer a credible ally and Europe</p>
<blockquote>
<p>must be ready to take our fate into our own hands.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Merkel’s comments were probably intended for a global and American domestic audience as well. The US foreign policy elite and public continue to support close ties to Europe. Cooperation with Africa also has been generally popular in America. It is one area of foreign assistance that has enjoyed enduring bi-partisan support <a href="https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/01/25/u-s-africa-policy-recommendations-for-president-trump/">since the early 1990s</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175823/original/file-20170627-24746-1k3m8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175823/original/file-20170627-24746-1k3m8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175823/original/file-20170627-24746-1k3m8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175823/original/file-20170627-24746-1k3m8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=659&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175823/original/file-20170627-24746-1k3m8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=828&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175823/original/file-20170627-24746-1k3m8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=828&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175823/original/file-20170627-24746-1k3m8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=828&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">shutterstock.</span>
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</figure>
<p>Trump’s antics in Hamburg could detract from the summit and his recalcitrance may complicate setting and slow implementation of the G20 agenda. But, progress on the <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2017/03/13/view-germany-the-g20-protectionism-and-the-compact-with-africa">Africa Compact</a> is still possible with support from the US private and non-governmental sectors. The same goes for climate change and economic cooperation. </p>
<p>How G20 leaders interact with Trump, and comment publicly on the progress or lack of progress in Hamburg will resonate domestically in the US. In deciding what to say publicly, G20 leaders may want to consider recent and escalating US domestic constraints impinging Trump’s presidency.</p>
<h2>Trump’s domestic constraints</h2>
<p>Trump meets all the definitional criteria of a demagogue. His appeal to popular passions and prejudices rather than reason and facts, secured him a base of support that remains loyal. </p>
<p>He has not broadened his popular appeal, polling favourability ratings around 36%, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/06/20/the-other-number-that-might-inspire-some-panic-among-congressional-republicans/?utm_term=.6d7e2861fbe9&wpisrc=nl_finance202&wpmm%20=1">lowest ever recorded</a> this early in a first term.</p>
<p>Trump has shown <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-leadership-traits-are-bad-news-for-democrats-in-Aafrica-69745%20Among%20G-20">authoritarian traits</a>. And the leaders he appears he will get along with best are those G20 leaders heading authoritarian regimes in China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The US still has the world’s biggest military and economy, but Trump has yet to earn the respect and deference of his G20 peers.</p>
<p>Politicians sometimes lie, but not all to the same degree. The Washington Post’s nonpartisan Fact Checkers <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claims-database/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.c1081f9b2c96">recently documented</a> 623 false and misleading claims by Trump in just his first 137 days in office.</p>
<p>Many Americans may be inured to Trump’s off-hand lies, or view it as a cleaver strategy to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/of-course-trump-called-comey-a-liar-thats-his-strategy/2017/06/12/6ff4b4a8-4fa6-11e7-91eb-9611861a988f_story.html?utm_term=.026ff1a843bf">keep opponents off balance</a>. </p>
<p>Allegations that Trump may now be under investigation by an independent special counsel for obstructing justice in the FBI’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, possibly in collusion with the Trump campaign, have put his presidency <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-a-real-gop-break-from-trump-look-like/?ex_cid=newsletter-top-stories">in even greater peril</a>. </p>
<p>If his own head of intelligence, and other senior officials of his administration, cannot trust him to keep his word, how can foreign leaders? Whatever Trump says at the G20, has to be discounted in light of this, including concurrence with a final joint statement.</p>
<h2>Referees Matter</h2>
<p>Trump’s mendacity points to a much bigger problem. In an era of big data and contested statistical evidence <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/19/crisis-of-statistics-big-data-democracy">how can opinion be informed</a> by agreed facts to achieve consensus at any political level? </p>
<p>He has ridden rough-shod over decades of research findings regarding the human causes of climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175827/original/file-20170627-24817-6fstl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175827/original/file-20170627-24817-6fstl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=895&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175827/original/file-20170627-24817-6fstl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=895&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175827/original/file-20170627-24817-6fstl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=895&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175827/original/file-20170627-24817-6fstl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1125&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175827/original/file-20170627-24817-6fstl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1125&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175827/original/file-20170627-24817-6fstl4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1125&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Kevin Lamarque</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>To inform and help frame democratic debate, about such scientifically complicated contested topics as climate, public health, national security, and a raft of other vital policy issues, the public used at least rely on professional journalists to arrive at the <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21706498-dishonesty-politics-nothing-new-manner-which-some-politicians-nw-lie-and">best obtainable version of the truth</a>. </p>
<p>This is no longer sufficient. Trump has advanced politically by questioning scientific evidence, those who produce it and dismisses as “fake news” any journalistic reporting he disagrees with. G20 leaders should not be diplomatic in calling attention to this.</p>
<p>And a positive counter-note to Trump’s cavalier claims would be for the G20 leaders to make clear that they believe in evidence based policymaking, as well as the monitoring and evaluation of recommendations. </p>
<h2>Cooperation without America</h2>
<p>The leaders, individually and together, need to show their commitment to unbiased, honest, and rigorously informed judgements on such issues as the design, priorities, and implementation of their new “Compact with Africa.” </p>
<p>Doing so without US backing adds to the challenge, but is also an opportunity for demonstrating cooperation <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-leadership-successor-to-america-by-richard-n--haass-2017-06">without America playing a central role</a>. So long as Trump is US president, this is likely to also be popular in most G20 countries. </p>
<p>A just released Pew global survey of public attitudes in 37 countries (including six in Africa - Senegal, South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Nigeria, and Ghana) toward the US under Trump shows a 15% drop in positive views of the US (64%-49%) <a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/26/u-s-image-suffers-as-publics-around-world-question-trumps-leadership/">since Barack Obama left office</a>. Confidence in the US presidency under Trump, however, fell a stunning 41%. Only in Russia, and Israel is Trump regarded more favourably than Obama.</p>
<p>Far more important that thwarting Trump, however, will be gaining public support for the “Compact with Africa” and the rest of the Hamburg agenda. Justifying these costly and complex commitments in positive ways will be a tougher political challenge; but one perhaps rendered easier without Trump or his representative claiming a seat at the head of the table.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80029/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John J Stremlau receives funding from SAIIA 2017 Bradlow Fellowship.</span></em></p>If the G20 is to remain relevant in the quest for more inclusive and fair global governance, Africa offers an historic opportunity for collective action, despite the absence of the US under Trump.John J Stremlau, 2017 Bradlow Fellow at SA Institute of International Affairs,Visiting Professor of International Relations, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/760772017-04-24T16:29:29Z2017-04-24T16:29:29ZTrump’s brand of economic populism gets a makeover in first 100 days<p>How can we make sense of the economic policy roller-coaster ride of Donald Trump’s first 100 days as president? </p>
<p>Trump’s statements soon after taking office made many <a href="http://theweek.com/articles/673976/what-hope-age-trump">hope</a> (or <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/donald-trump-the-impulsive-demagogue-in-the-white-house">fear</a>) that a new form of populism had become the guiding ideology of the White House. But a dizzying series of reversals in recent weeks has led others <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-takes-a-centrist-tack-on-economic-policy-abandoning-campaign-pledges/2017/04/12/95376192-1fc3-11e7-be2a-3a1fb24d4671_story.html?utm_term=.3e12407c8c12">to conclude</a> that the new administration’s economic approach will be Republican “business as usual.”</p>
<p>Has Donald Trump really changed his tune on the economy since the inauguration? Have his policies served the interests of his working-class base, or are they friendlier to his friends in the corporate world? And what does his behavior tell us about the remaining three years and 265 days of his presidency?</p>
<p>To answer these questions, let’s examine the president’s campaign promises and his actual record (or lack thereof) over the past three months. </p>
<h2>Trump on trade</h2>
<p>As most of us remember from the campaign, Trump was full-throated in defending a populist, “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-america-first-mean-for-american-economic-interests-71931">America First</a>” vision for trade. He would use his deal-making skills to protect U.S. workers and to ensure that America wouldn’t be taken for a ride by its trading partners, above all China. </p>
<p>One of Trump’s first actions upon taking office, in fact, was to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/23/us/politics/tpp-trump-trade-nafta.html">pull the U.S. out</a> of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a comprehensive deal that would have created a free trade zone with 11 other Pacific trading powers, including Japan and Australia. </p>
<p>However, since this initial populist move, Trump seems to have <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/trump-economic-policy-reversals/522849/">moderated</a> his trade policy considerably. For example, Trump’s nominee for chief trade negotiator has signaled <a href="https://insidetrade.com/daily-news/lighthizer-does-not-rule-out-resuming-ttip-talks-non-committal-tisa">an openness</a> to continuing talks on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/ttip-12692">massive trade agreement with Europe</a>, making it less likely to meet the same fate as the TPP. And Trump has <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/finance/328547-trump-throws-support-behind-ex-im-bank">abandoned efforts to eliminate</a> the trade-promoting Export-Import Bank. </p>
<p>Perhaps most consequentially, at the president’s recent Mar-a-Lago summit with China’s Xi Jinping, the two leaders came to an <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/07/trump-xi-agree-to-100-day-plan-to-discuss-trade-issues.html">agreement</a> to avoid a trade war, and Trump soon after decided <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/16/politics/donald-trump-china-currency-manipulators/">not to label</a> China formally as a currency manipulator. </p>
<p>Still, Trump <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/business/trade-canada-trump-steel.html?ref=business&_r=0">recently ordered</a> a massive review of steel imports, with an eye toward possible protectionist measures, and also openly criticized Canada on its dairy rules. These actions serve as a useful reminder that, despite his recent moderation, Trump is still not a “normal” Republican president. </p>
<h2>Trump and taxes</h2>
<p>Taxes were another key campaign issue for Trump. </p>
<p>During the campaign, he <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/trumpometer/subjects/taxes/">promised</a> to make deep cuts “for everyone” while simplifying deductions and imposing “<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/27/news/economy/border-adjustment-tax-trump-trump-congress/">border adjustment” taxes</a> on corporations. </p>
<p>With the recent focus on health care, little progress had been made on taxes, but in the last few days Trump <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-23/mulvaney-says-trump-tax-plan-details-won-t-be-ready-until-june">has said he’s readying</a> a “big tax reform and tax reduction plan.” It’s not expected to include the border adjustment or to be revenue neutral, and the administration has claimed it’ll pay for itself by boosting the economy – a point of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/04/22/trumps-tax-reform-plans-to-depend-upon-an-untruth-that-tax-cuts-pay-for-themselves/#51093d6e48db">contention</a> among economists. </p>
<p>It’s also not likely to happen anytime soon as details aren’t expected until June. And Democrats have vowed to oppose any Trump tax proposals <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/us/politics/tax-code-overhaul-trump.html">until he releases</a> his income tax returns.</p>
<p>In the meantime, Trump has <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/21/trump-executive-orders-target-tax-rules-too-big-fail-financial-institutions/100738548/">used</a> his executive powers to make as many changes in the tax code as he can unilaterally.</p>
<p>Taken together, Trump’s tax policy seems to conform quite closely to traditional Republican support for tax cuts, particularly those that benefit disproportionately the rich – hardly populist.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure, deregulation and the dollar</h2>
<p>Three other economic policy areas – infrastructure, deregulation and the dollar – have received less attention but were also important Trump campaign promises. </p>
<p>Trump’s proposal to invest in infrastructure was one of his few ideas to generate support beyond his populist base, yet the plan <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/trump-promises-infrastructure-package-schumer-shrugs-article-1.3070794">remains far from becoming a reality</a>. </p>
<p>Apart from withdrawing from the TPP, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-deregulation-project-1492470927">deregulation</a> may be the only economic policy area where Trump has taken visible and consequential action. This fact is likely the result of his ability to alter many regulations by executive fiat, an approach that seems dear to Trump’s heart. To take an example, since January Trump has signed executive orders <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-executive-orders-memorandum-proclamations-presidential-action-guide-2017-1/#executive-order-march-28-dismantling-obamas-climate-change-protections-12">eliminating</a> environmental and worker protections implemented during the Obama years. </p>
<p>Finally, while presidents rarely inject themselves into debates on monetary policy, Trump has taken the unusual step of advocating a <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/04/12/trump-says-yellen-is-not-toast-as-says-dollar-is-getting-too-strong.html">weak dollar</a>. This view is, of course, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-trump-favors-a-weak-dollar-2017-1">at odds</a> with the traditional Republican preference for a strong dollar and low inflation, but it is in keeping with Trump’s emphasis on improving the trade balance and putting people back to work. </p>
<p>So, what do these three policy areas tell us about Trump’s economic ideology? His support for a weak dollar is, at least in some sense, populist: It prioritizes high employment over low inflation. But the infrastructure plan (aside from the Mexican wall) is quite centrist, and deregulation fits very comfortably into past Republican efforts to make business more profitable. </p>
<h2>Which Trump?</h2>
<p>It does seem, then, that Trump has shifted his economic policy preferences from the populism of the campaign trail to a more familiar pro-business conservatism – though this is truer in some policy areas than others.</p>
<p>So why this change in tune? Is it just that Trump is an <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/04/13/robinson-trump-may-be-most-erratic-president-in-u-s-history/">erratic president</a>, whose behavior is inherently irrational and unpredictable? Or, in a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/us/politics/export-import-bank-janet-yellen-china-currency.html">battle of advisers</a>, have moderate voices such as son-in-law Jared Kushner and economic consigliere Gary Cohn prevailed over populists like Steve Bannon? </p>
<p>I tend to think Trump’s changes are more a result of either <a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/analysis-trump-values-winning-over-ideology/">strategy</a> – he’s following whatever economic line suits his political interests at the moment – or <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/02/trump-constraints-opposition/516825/">feeling constrained</a> – he would prefer a more reactionary agenda but institutions like Congress, the courts and the media are hemming him in. </p>
<p>As a result, I suspect that Trump’s economic policies will continue to vacillate during his term. But, at the same time, they will remain constrained within certain limits, in action if not in rhetoric. </p>
<h2>How does Trump stack up?</h2>
<p>Whatever the case, perhaps the most striking feature of Trump’s economic record over the last 100 days is not its constant vacillation but its thinness. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/23/100-days-how-trump-compares-to-last-five-presidents">comparison</a> with <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/apr/24/donald-trump/how-do-donald-trumps-first-100-days-rate-historica/">other presidents</a> in their first 100 days, Trump has little to show, at least in terms of legislative accomplishments on the economy. </p>
<p>For example, within a month of taking office Barack Obama signed the <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/policy/gen/leg/recovery/factsheet/overview.html">American Recovery and Reinvestment Act</a>, which combined a massive stimulus with unemployment assistance, infrastructure payments, investment in research and other provisions. </p>
<p>Similarly, George W. Bush <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/1768/after-100-days-publics-perceptions-bush-remarkably-unchanged.aspx">was well on his way</a> to passing tax cuts and education reform, and Bill Clinton saw through the adoption of the <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=46777">Family and Medical Leave Act</a>.</p>
<p>That said, the first 100 days is an arbitrary standard for evaluating a president, and Trump is not the first to have experienced setbacks during this period. For example, the first Bush was unable to win approval for John Tower, his defense secretary nominee, and Clinton presided over the tragedy at the Branch Davidian compound in Waco.</p>
<p>On balance, however, for a president who has vowed great economic change, Trump has yet to deliver.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Hankla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A flurry of policy reversals in recent weeks suggests Trump has changed his tune from his populist campaign promises. Has he?Charles Hankla, Associate Professor of Political Science, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/741462017-04-03T00:59:35Z2017-04-03T00:59:35ZWhat history reveals about surges in anti-Semitism and anti-immigrant sentiments<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163332/original/image-20170330-4565-19bkst.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More than 100 headstones were vandalized at the Jewish cemetery in Philadelphia in Feb. 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Jacqueline Larma</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This February, more than 100 gravestones were vandalized at the Chesed Shel Emeth Society <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/21/us/jewish-cemetery-vandalized/">Cemetery outside of St. Louis</a>, Missouri and at the Jewish <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/26/us/jewish-cemetery-vandalism-philadelphia/">Mount Carmel Cemetery</a> in Philadelphia.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.adl.org/">Anti-Defamation League (ADL)</a> has called anti-Semitism in the U.S. a “very serious concern.” An ADL task force confirmed that 800 journalists in the U.S. have been targeted with more than <a href="https://www.adl.org/news/press-releases/adl-task-force-issues-report-detailing-widespread-anti-semitic-harassment-of">19,000 anti-Semitic tweets</a>. The organization also reported an upsurge in <a href="https://www.adl.org/news/press-releases/adl-lists-top-10-manifestations-of-anti-semitism-in-2016">anti-Semitism on U.S. college campuses</a>.</p>
<p>Most disconcerting, however, is the ADL’s admission that, although this increase in anti-Semitism is troubling, “it is essential to recognize that, for both positive and negative reasons – <a href="https://www.adl.org/news/op-ed/anti-semitism-is-real-but-we-are-no-longer-alone">we are not alone.”</a> In the 10 days following the presidential election in 2016, nearly 900 hate-motivated incidents were reported, <a href="http://www.chronicle.com/blogs/ticker/heres-a-rundown-of-the-latest-campus-climate-incidents-since-trumps-election/115553">and many on college campuses</a>. Many of these incidents targeted Muslims, people of color and immigrants as well as Jews.</p>
<p>White supremacist groups like Identity Evropa, American Vanguard and American Renaissance have <a href="https://www.adl.org/news/press-releases/adl-white-supremacists-making-unprecedented-effort-on-us-college-campuses-to">also been more active on college campuses.</a></p>
<p>I am a Jewish studies scholar. Research shows that this outpouring of anti-immigrant and anti-Semitic sentiment is reminiscent in many ways of the political climate during the years between the first and second world wars in the U.S. – known as the interwar period. </p>
<h2>America as the ‘melting pot’</h2>
<p>In its early years the United States maintained an “open door policy” that drew millions of immigrants from all religions to enter the country, including Jews. Between 1820 and 1880, <a href="http://www.iupress.indiana.edu/product_info.php?products_id=20118">over nine million immigrants entered America.</a> By the early 1880s, American nativists – people who believed that the “genetic stock” of Northern Europe was superior to that of Southern and Eastern Europe – began pushing for the exclusion of “foreigners,” whom they “viewed with deep suspicion.” </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163334/original/image-20170330-4555-m3sfc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163334/original/image-20170330-4555-m3sfc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163334/original/image-20170330-4555-m3sfc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163334/original/image-20170330-4555-m3sfc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163334/original/image-20170330-4555-m3sfc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=950&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163334/original/image-20170330-4555-m3sfc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=950&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163334/original/image-20170330-4555-m3sfc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=950&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fifty German-Jewish refugee children, ranging in age from 5 to 13, salute the American flag, June 5, 1939.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In fact, according to scholar <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Barbara_Bailin">Barbara Bailin</a>, most of the immigrants, who were from Southern, Central and Eastern Europe, “were considered so different in composition, religion, and culture from earlier immigrants as to trigger a xenophobic reaction that served to generate <a href="http://academicworks.cuny.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1261&context=cc_etds_theses">more restrictive immigration laws.”</a> </p>
<p>In August 1882, Congress responded to increasing concerns about America’s “open door” policy and passed the <a href="http://academicworks.cuny.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1261&context=cc_etds_theses">Immigration Act of 1882</a>, which included a provision denying entry to “any convict, lunatic, idiot or any person unable to take care of himself without becoming a public charge.” </p>
<p>However, enforcement was not strict, in part because immigration officers working at the points of entry were expected to implement these restrictions as they saw fit. In fact, it was during the late 19th century that the American “melting pot” was born: nearly 22 million immigrants from all over the world entered the U.S. between 1881 and 1914. They included approximately 1,500,000 million European Jews hoping to escape the longstanding legally enforced <a href="http://academicworks.cuny.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1261&context=cc_etds_theses">anti-Semitism of many parts of the European continent,</a> which limited where Jews could live, what kinds of universities they could attend and what kinds of professions they could hold. </p>
<h2>Fear of Jews/immigrants</h2>
<p>Nativists continued to rail against the demographic shifts created by the United States’ lax immigration policy, and in particular took issue with the high numbers of Jews and Southern Italians entering the country, groups many nativists believed were racially inferior to Northern and Western Europeans. Nativists also voiced concerns about the <a href="http://cmsny.org/publications/kraut-nativism/">effects of cheaper labor</a> on the struggle for higher wages.</p>
<p>These fears were eventually reflected in <a href="http://academicworks.cuny.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1261&context=cc_etds_theses">the makeup of Congress</a>, since the electorate voted increasing numbers of nativist congresspeople into office who vowed to change immigration laws with their constituent’s anti-immigrant sentiments in mind.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163336/original/image-20170330-4555-11a10if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163336/original/image-20170330-4555-11a10if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163336/original/image-20170330-4555-11a10if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163336/original/image-20170330-4555-11a10if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163336/original/image-20170330-4555-11a10if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163336/original/image-20170330-4555-11a10if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163336/original/image-20170330-4555-11a10if.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Immigrants, Ellis Island.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2001704437/">Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division Washington, D.C. 20540 USA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nativist and isolationist sentiment in America only increased, as Europe fell headlong into World War I, “the war to end all wars.” On Feb. 4, 1917 Congress passed the Immigration Act of 1917, which reversed America’s open door policy and denied entry to the majority of immigrants seeking entry. As a result, between <a href="http://academicworks.cuny.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1261&context=cc_etds_theses">1918 and 1921, only 20,019</a> Jews were admitted into the U.S.</p>
<p>The 1924 Immigration Act tightened the borders further. It transferred the decision to admit or deny immigrants from the immigration officers at the port of entry to the Foreign Services Office, which issued visas after the completion of a lengthy <a href="http://academicworks.cuny.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1261&context=cc_etds_theses">application with supporting documentation.</a></p>
<p>The quotas established by the act also set strict limits on the number of new immigrants allowed after 1924. The number of Central and Eastern Europeans allowed to enter the U.S. was dramatically reduced: The 1924 quotas provided visas to a mere 2 percent of each nationality already in the U.S by 1890, and excluded immigrants from Asia completely (except for immigrants from Japan and the Phillipines). The stated fundamental purpose of this immigration act was to <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/immigration-act">preserve the ideal of U.S. “homogeneity.”</a> Congress did not revise the act until 1952.</p>
<h2>Why does this history matter?</h2>
<p>The political climate of the interwar period has many similarities with the anti-immigrant and anti-Semitic environment today. </p>
<p>President Trump’s platform is comprised in large part of strongly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/02/21/trumps-first-100-days-on-illegal-immigrants-anti-semitism-and-transgender-students/?utm_term=.1d2c3c189db4">anti-immigrant rhetoric</a>. <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/08/25/5-facts-about-trump-supporters-views-of-immigration/">A Pew Charitable Trust survey</a> shows that as many as 66 percent of registered voters who supported Trump consider immigration a “very big problem,” while only 17 percent of Hillary Clinton’s supporters said the same. Seventy-nine percent of Trump supporters embrace the proposal to build a wall “along the entire U.S. border with Mexico.” Moreover, <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/">59 percent of Trump supporters actively associate</a> “unauthorized immigrants with serious criminal behavior.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163338/original/image-20170330-4588-1cn5ou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163338/original/image-20170330-4588-1cn5ou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163338/original/image-20170330-4588-1cn5ou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163338/original/image-20170330-4588-1cn5ou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163338/original/image-20170330-4588-1cn5ou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163338/original/image-20170330-4588-1cn5ou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163338/original/image-20170330-4588-1cn5ou.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters of President Trump during a campaign rally.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/25218962886/in/photolist-EqvM3W-EqvH81-EziHuG-wQY9em-Dv5ErA-F2v8bb-K3nj9y-RsG4rg-jtNHFb-J9pP3u-C6xeV7-P5jt7G-StkK5Z-Jic1MB-Hnaxxk-QetVux-R837XU-HndmbC-Rm587m-QRgTcG-SsLm3g-NDDxSu-JfhLE5-QgR9Yy-Qd7Lwv-NGFgUz-MJEHo6-S9nL2h-Jikh2i-MrVHLj-BFs7WJ-Pj5unk-KJpDj3-KJpFuA-FxrwhF-RZiHJt-Dv6Szm-Nsw3BS-EqvDRw-Dv6ReA-CdHiFA-EzSAXr-CdP4D5-CdNqkh-RpCA2w-EquzPW-EquycN-EsPoqT-Q8bQws-C6u1As">Gage Skidmore</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I argue that much like the claims of interwar period nativists that Southern and Eastern European people were racially inferior, the assertions of President Trump and his supporters about immigrants and the dangers they pose are nothing more than demagoguery. The allegations about the high crime rate among immigrants are not borne out by statistical evidence: <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/08/25/5-facts-about-trump-supporters-views-of-immigration/">Immigrants are far less likely to commit crimes</a> than people born in the U.S. </p>
<p>President Trump’s claims about the dangers posed by immigrants may not be supported by facts; but they do indicate the U.S.’ increased isolationism, nativism and right-wing nationalism. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/06/us/politics/travel-ban-muslim-trump.html?_r=0">His most recent travel ban blocks</a> immigrants from six predominantly Muslim nations, and includes a 120-day freeze on Syrian refugees specifically. And yet like the Jews of Europe from the interwar period, many of these refugees seek entry into the U.S. because their very lives are at stake.</p>
<p>For many scholars like myself, Trump’s “America First” approach is a reminder of the interwar period; all over again, we see anti-immigrant sentiment and anti-Semitism, going hand in hand. In the current climate, <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/27/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world/">Muslims are also easy targets</a> for a new generation of nativists, whose <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/157082/islamophobia-understanding-anti-muslim-sentiment-west.aspx">fears</a> are used to justify turning away refugees and immigrants.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74146/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ingrid Anderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The U.S. saw an increase in anti-Semitic and anti-immigrant sentiments in the period between World War I and World War II. Here’s why it matters to know that history today.Ingrid Anderson, Lecturer, Arts & Sciences Writing Program, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/734002017-02-23T21:07:51Z2017-02-23T21:07:51ZDonald Trump, white victimhood and the South African far-right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157882/original/image-20170222-1364-1h7l7ck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Afrikaans singer Steve Hofmeyr (with the yellow t-shirt) in front of a statue of Paul Kruger at Church Square in Pretoria.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alon Skuy/The Times</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the age of smartphones and social media, the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11565661/Viral-memes-are-ruining-our-politics.-Share-if-you-agree.html">spread of ideas as digital memes</a> is global and unpredictable. This includes, for example, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29052144">Islamic State</a> (IS) recruiting followers from across the globe, to the nationalist and xenophobic <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-vote-has-led-to-noticeable-rise-in-uk-xenophobia-watchdog-warns-a7343646.html">ideas</a> that were espoused respectively in the campaigns by <a href="https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/brexiteer">Brexiteers</a> to get the UK to <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-in-memes-uk-decision-light-hearted-view/">leave the European Union</a> and Donald Trump to <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/7/7/12116242/trump-frozen-antisemitic-meme-clinton">get elected</a> as US president. </p>
<p>Around the world, <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/12/31/13869676/social-media-influence-alt-right">the right</a> especially has shown how effective a tool social media can be.</p>
<p>A good example is popular South African singer <a href="http://synapses.co.za/muppet-takes-puppet-steve-hofmeyr-chestermissing/">Steve Hofmeyr</a>, who is a foremost crusader for <a href="http://www.enca.com/south-africa/red-october-plight-whites-new-south-africa">white right-wing causes</a>, –especially on social media. With 222,000 followers, his Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/steve_hofmeyr">timeline</a> not only features local issues of so-called white victimhood, but also retweets of prominent European extremists’ campaigns. As to be expected, he is a strong Trump supporter.</p>
<p>Recently, there was a fundraising campaign to <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-02-06-in-trump-he-trusts-meet-the-man-who-could-be-the-next-us-ambassador-to-south-africa/#.WKIHg9J96Hs">send Hofmeyr to the US</a> to meet with Trump. The extremist campaigner behind the proposed “talks” said it was aimed at stopping the “genocide” of white Afrikaners. He even sent tweets to Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, and his wife, Melania, to help facilitate the talks. </p>
<p>But South Africa’s right-wing is a fractious bunch, and the fundraising campaign stuttered to a halt when it appeared that it was a scam and Hofmeyr <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/hofmeyr-withdraws-from-trump-fundraising-20170214">distanced</a> himself from the efforts.</p>
<h2>Victimhood crossing borders</h2>
<p>White victimhood has crossed international borders. The idea of white people falling victim to an “onslaught” of refugees and immigrants has become a <a href="http://time.com/time-person-of-the-year-populism/">major factor</a> in elections across Europe. The meaning of “PC” is changing, with political correctness making way for patriotic correctness. That’s what Trump’s “America First” is all about.</p>
<p>Trump’s campaign slogan “Make America Great Again” <a href="http://www.herald.co.zw/trump-and-fascism-democracy-fatigue/">appealed to</a> white victimhood. He focused on a white electorate who feels disillusioned by demographic and sociopolitical change in the US. They <a href="http://www.salon.com/2017/02/12/trumps-supporters-believe-a-false-narrative-of-white-victimhood-and-the-data-proves-it/">feel</a> that American values are in danger, and hence there is the need to “take back America”.</p>
<p>White victimhood is a <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2017/01/25/altered-right-how-white-nationalists-exploit-tragedy-build-narrative-white-victimhood">right-wing tactic</a> that inverts the left’s narratives of minority discrimination and neocolonialism. This tactic denies that there is such a thing as white privilege, and attempts to camouflage white domination.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157867/original/image-20170222-1340-5jmgfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157867/original/image-20170222-1340-5jmgfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=924&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157867/original/image-20170222-1340-5jmgfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=924&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157867/original/image-20170222-1340-5jmgfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=924&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157867/original/image-20170222-1340-5jmgfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1161&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157867/original/image-20170222-1340-5jmgfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1161&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157867/original/image-20170222-1340-5jmgfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1161&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Milo Yiannopoulos has resigned from the righ-twing Breitbart News.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jason Szenes/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whites can surely be victims of crime or discrimination as individuals, but white victimhood goes much further. It implies that whites as a demographic group are victims of discrimination, oppression or even persecution. In short, whites are endangered by all sorts of dangers out there in the world.</p>
<p>This recent right-wing tactic has morphed into the <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/alternative-right">“alt-right”</a> movement in America with various faces. The extreme is the new Nazism dressed in designer suits and championed by <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/richard-spencer-speech-npi/508379/">American white supremacist</a> <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/richard-spencer-alt-right-punched-donald-trump-inauguration-a7538746.html">Richard Spencer</a>, who is president of the <a href="http://www.npiamerica.org/">National Policy Institute</a>. </p>
<p>There is the more “gentrified” culture of anti-left trolling with the Brit <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39026870">Milo Yiannopoulos</a> as its <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/an-interview-with-the-most-hated-man-on-the-internet/">flamboyant poster boy</a>. This right-wing provocateur was forced this week <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/21/milo-yiannopoulos-resigns-breitbart-pedophilia-comments">to fall on his sword</a> over remarks in which he appeared to endorse sex between “younger boys” and older men.</p>
<p>And there is <a href="https://qz.com/898134/what-steve-bannon-really-wants/">Trump’s powerful chief strategist</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37971742">Stephen Bannon</a>, with his <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/this-is-how-steve-bannon-sees-the-entire-world?utm_term=.pnqZjAZKb#.bho5Ek5oB">siege mentality</a> against “Islamic fascism”. </p>
<h2>Alt-right’s South African ties</h2>
<p>The “alt-right” news website <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2017/02/21/breitbart-under-bannon-breitbarts-comment-section-reflects-alt-right-anti-semitic-language">Breitbart</a> has an editor-at-large (after Bannon’s departure) with strong South African ties. <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2017-02-08-a-south-african-link-to-trumps-inner-circle">Joel Pollak</a>, born in South Africa, was a speechwriter for the opposition Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon from 2002 to 2006 whilst studying in the country.</p>
<p>Pollak is now being floated as Trump’s <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2017-02-06-in-trump-he-trusts-meet-the-man-who-could-be-the-next-us-ambassador-to-south-africa/#.WKIHg9J96Hs">possible US ambassador in Pretoria</a>. </p>
<p>This South African connection goes deeper. The persecution of whites is an influential idea for the South African far-right. The fear of black violence, the so-called “Swart Gevaar” (Afrikaans for black danger) propagated by the apartheid state, still persists. The most extreme version of this victimhood is “white genocide”. </p>
<p>This idea has been popularised by the Afrikaans pop singers Hofmeyr and <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Law-expert-Sunette-Bridges-order-could-set-precedent-20150401">Sunette Bridges</a> through their <a href="http://www.enca.com/south-africa/red-october-plight-whites-new-south-africa">Red October campaign</a>. They advocate that farm murders in South Africa come down to “white genocide” – farm murders most certainly are <a href="https://issafrica.org/amp/iss-today/farm-attacks-and-farm-murders-remain-a-concern">problematic</a>, even without it being hijacked for political mileage. But they <a href="http://www.farmersweekly.co.za/agri-business/bottomline/the-truth-about-farm-murders/">don’t amount</a> to “white genocide” and affects more than white people.</p>
<p>The right-wing political party Freedom Front Plus has <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2014/11/26/FF-call-on-UN-to-investigate-SA-for-genocide1">called on</a> the UN to investigate white genocide. The <a href="http://www.farmersweekly.co.za/agri-news/south-africa/farm-murder-figures-tau-sa/">numbers</a> show that this idea is sheer hyperbole. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://www.change.org/p/european-commission-allow-all-white-south-africans-the-right-to-return-to-europe">online petition</a> has also <a href="http://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/on-whites-right-of-return-to-europe--front-nasiona">requested</a> the Council of the EU to <a href="https://www.change.org/p/european-commission-allow-all-white-south-africans-the-right-to-return-to-europe/u/18505106">“allow all white South Africans the right to return to Europe”</a>. The petition says that whites face persecution and ethnic cleansing at home.</p>
<p>The petition has been reinvigorated by Trump’s election as US president and calls him “a new hope for white South Africans”. It now addresses Trump to accept whites from South Africa as refugees to the US.</p>
<p>The idea of white genocide (or annihilation) has spread to the rest of the globe. Views from the South African far-right found its way into two well-known acts of terrorism committed by radicalised white men. </p>
<p>The first was the 2011 mass murder of 77 people (mostly minors) by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/world/europe/anders-breivik-nazi-prison-lawsuit.html?_r=0">Anders Breivik</a> on an island near Oslo in Norway. Breivik’s <a href="https://publicintelligence.net/anders-behring-breiviks-complete-manifesto-2083-a-european-declaration-of-independence/">manifesto</a> “2083 – A European Declaration of Independence” is a reference to his predicted date when Europe becomes a Muslim continent. It includes various references to the persecution of whites in South Africa and a whole section on Afrikaner genocide. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157869/original/image-20170222-1310-1ozjlkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157869/original/image-20170222-1310-1ozjlkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157869/original/image-20170222-1310-1ozjlkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157869/original/image-20170222-1310-1ozjlkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157869/original/image-20170222-1310-1ozjlkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157869/original/image-20170222-1310-1ozjlkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157869/original/image-20170222-1310-1ozjlkr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Norwegian right-wing mass murderer Anders Breivik during a court appearance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lise Aaserud/Scanpix</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The second was the 2015 mass shooting of nine black people by <a href="http://time.com/4603863/dylann-roof-verdict-guilty/">Dylann Roof</a> in a church in Charleston, South Carolina. Roof’s manifesto <a href="http://lastrhodesian.net/data/documents/rtf88.txt">“The Last Rhodesian”</a> included a reference to discrimination against whites in South Africa. He also lauds the “success” of apartheid as proof that a black majority can be controlled by a white minority. </p>
<p>Breivik and Roof both raised the fear of persecution of whites as motivation for their actions. They invoked the South African situation as “proof” that whites are in danger due to an onslaught by Muslims (in Europe) and black people (in the US).</p>
<p>Trump’s <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/20/politics/trump-inaugural-address/">mention</a> of “American carnage” in his inaugural address is a continuation of the narrative of white victimhood. It forms the imaginary basis for something similar to the apartheid state’s “Swart Gevaar” – except with Mexicans and Muslims being the “peril”. </p>
<p>Trump’s way to deal with these hyperbolic dangers is the proposed <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/a-border-wall-by-2020-doubt-it/517341/">wall</a> between the US and Mexico, and the Muslim <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/20/politics/trump-new-executive-order-immigration/">travel ban</a> targeting majority-Muslim countries.</p>
<p>The idea of white victimhood played an <a href="http://www.salon.com/2016/06/06/the_politics_of_bigotry_donald_trump_and_the_rise_of_white_racial_victimhood/">important part</a> in Trump’s rise. The South African brand of white supremacy has made a tangible contribution to this narrative of victimhood. It is part of a growing “<a href="https://philcsc.wordpress.com/2008/08/07/interrogating-transnationalism-white-supremacist-cosmopolitanism/">white supremacist cosmopolitanism</a>” and a <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/trump-inauguration-signals-new-world-order-a-1130916.html">Trump New World Order</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73400/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Villet does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The idea of white victimhood played an important part in Donald Trump’s rise. The South African brand of white supremacy has made a tangible contribution to this narrative of victimhood.Charles Villet, Lecturer in Philosophy, School of Social Science, Monash South Africa, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/719312017-02-01T03:42:05Z2017-02-01T03:42:05ZWhat does ‘America first’ mean for American economic interests?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155064/original/image-20170131-3285-1bqo5o3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">America first, but at what cost?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Trump paper via www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/20/donald-trumps-full-inauguration-speech-transcript-annotated/?utm_term=.8efe9dc46192">inauguration speech</a>, Donald Trump used the phrase “America first” to describe his approach to governance. </p>
<p>Trump’s speech, of course, was <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/27/opinions/trump-america-first-ugly-echoes-dunn/">not the first time</a> that we have heard this phrase. Historically, <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-america-first-echoes-from-1940s-59579">politicians and activists</a> have used the idea of putting America first to advocate for policies ranging from strict immigration to foreign policy isolationism. </p>
<p>But what did the new president intend to say by borrowing this well-worn but vague phrase? What does it really mean, in economic terms, to put America first?</p>
<h2>The history of ‘America first’</h2>
<p>Today, what unites “America first” populists is a rejection of the idea that the country’s self-interest is inextricably bound to the prosperity and liberty of the broader world. </p>
<p>According to this way of thinking, the world outside is full of more threats than opportunities, and America would do well to guard itself against pernicious influences from abroad. Worse, America’s generosity is <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/28/politics/donald-trump-speech-pennsylvania-economy/">constantly being abused</a> by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-14/how-donald-trump-could-wipe-420-billion-off-china-s-exports">Asian exporters</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-28/trump-s-visa-ban-order-the-view-from-a-worried-middle-east">Middle Eastern miscreants</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/04/25/enough-with-the-complaints-of-european-free-riding-already/">European free-riders</a>. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, we’ve seen before where such a foreign policy approach can lead.</p>
<p>During the Great Depression, the United States and the countries of Europe found themselves caught in a spiral of increasing trade protection and currency devaluation. This period of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Adjusts-Domestic-Sources-Economic-Interwar/dp/0691017107/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1485552534&sr=8-1&keywords=who+adjusts">“beggar-thy-neighbor” policies</a>, in which one country’s protectionist moves trigger tightened borders from trade partners, was to no one’s economic benefit. More to the point, the deepening economic crisis that ensued, combined with the declining economic interdependence of the great powers, <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/022516/economic-conditions-helped-cause-world-war-ii.asp">likely contributed</a> to the outbreak of war in 1939.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, inside the United States, the year 1940 saw the creation of the “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/trump-america-first/514037/">America First Committee</a>,” which opposed entry into the Second World War. This movement attracted supporters of all political stripes and motivations, but some of its leaders were uncomfortably sympathetic with the fascist parties of Europe. It is with this movement that the phase “America first” is most associated today.</p>
<p>Of course, it is no longer the 1930s, and we shouldn’t press the analogy too far. In all likelihood, despite the <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21709028-how-contain-vladimir-putins-deadly-dysfunctional-empire-threat-russia">ominous behavior of Russia</a>, world war is not on the horizon. But this doesn’t mean that adopting a narrow understanding of American self-interest will be any less dangerous for the nation’s (and the world’s) economic future.</p>
<h2>The rise of ‘enlightened self-interest’</h2>
<p>At the end of World War II, when the “America first” rhetoric had been discredited, U.S. leaders set about creating a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Forgotten-Foundations-Bretton-Woods-International/dp/1501704370/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1485551734&sr=8-4&keywords=bretton+woods">new international system</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/neoliberalisms-failure-means-we-need-a-new-narrative-to-guide-global-economy-69096">They envisioned</a> the U.S. as leading a world order that embodied democracy, open trade and growing prosperity. This vision was founded on generous programs such as the Marshall Plan and on institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which morphed into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995. </p>
<p>Of course, the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Cold-War-New-History/dp/0143038273/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1485552290&sr=8-1&keywords=cold+war">exigencies of the Cold War</a> led to many abuses and mistakes in the years that followed. But the basic idea that “enlightened self-interest” required an internationalist and benevolent United States ensuring an open, prosperous and democratic world <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2017/02/09/what-trump-is-throwing-out-the-window/">was largely accepted</a>, at least in principle, by both parties. </p>
<p>This consensus found particular resonance in trade as the world shifted in the postwar period from unilateral to multilateral commercial policies. Under the aegis of the GATT/WTO, trade policy came to be set by the give-and-take of international negotiation rather than the individual decisions of national governments. </p>
<p>These international negotiations required that each country <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm">open its domestic markets</a> in return for improved market access abroad. The growing trade openness that resulted from this system <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Global-Capitalism-Fall-Twentieth-Century/dp/039332981X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1485552358&sr=8-1&keywords=global+capitalism+its+fall+and+rise+in+the+twentieth+century">helped undergird</a> America’s postwar prosperity as well as the economic miracles in Europe and East Asia.</p>
<h2>Trump’s new protectionism</h2>
<p>The administration’s resurrected “America first” rhetoric implies that the internationalism and “enlightened self-interest” that built the postwar order, and that was still recognizable in Obama’s foreign policy, was a gigantic mistake. </p>
<p>Several of Trump’s campaign aides <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-advisers-start-america-policies-nonprofit-45148833">have even used the phrase</a> to christen a new group, “America First Policies,” to advocate on behalf of their new populist vision.</p>
<p>It is a vision that rejects the give-and-take of take of international agreements, the generosity of foreign aid and the conviction that what is good for our friends is good for America. It replaces these ideas with a narrow understanding of self-interest, one that risks exchanging long-run benefits for short-term satisfaction. </p>
<p>Take, for example, the Trump administration’s trade policy. During his first 10 days in office, the president took three extraordinary steps in a protectionist direction. </p>
<p>First, and most significantly, he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/23/us/politics/tpp-trump-trade-nafta.html?_r=0">withdrew</a> the United States from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/tpp-7972">Trans-Pacific Partnership</a> (TPP) agreement, formally ending years of U.S. negotiations for expanded markets in Asia. The TPP would have created a free trade zone between the United States and 11 Pacific nations. </p>
<p>It is true that the administration is considering a new <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/japans-abe-to-meet-trump-on-february-10-with-agenda-spanning-security-trade/">bilateral agreement with Japan</a>, the most important of the prospective TPP member states apart from Canada and Mexico, both of which are already in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). </p>
<p>Even so, the strategic fallout from America’s rejection of TPP is likely to be significant. It sends a signal to countries in the region that the U.S. is unwilling to act as a buffer against the economic power of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-will-be-the-winner-if-us-backs-out-of-the-tpp-63328">rising China</a>, quite an ironic message from a president so enamored with <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/story/13953199/1/cramer-trump-s-anti-china-rhetoric-puts-qualcomm-nxpi-deal-at-risk.html">anti-Beijing rhetoric</a>. It also needlessly sacrifices a potentially useful bargaining chip in future negotiations with China. </p>
<p>Second, President Trump threatened to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/26/trump-calls-for-20-tax-on-mexican-imports-to-pay-for-border-wall">slap a 20 percent tariff</a> on Mexico, and possibly on other countries that run a large trade surplus with the United States. This threat, along with others made by Trump’s closest advisers, calls into the question the future of NAFTA, which has ensured open borders in North America for more than 20 years. Trump, for his part, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/22/politics/trump-renegotiate-nafta/">has promised to renegotiate the trade deal</a> or even pull the U.S. out of it. </p>
<p>While President Trump cannot permanently raise tariffs without congressional approval, he may be able to <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/23/news/economy/trump-tariff-power/">do so temporarily</a>. In the event that he does, Mexico and other countries will certainly retaliate. The resulting trade war could deny America access to foreign markets in a way that we haven’t seen since the end of World War II.</p>
<p>Third, the new administration backed a Republican proposal in Congress that would incorporate “<a href="http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/trump-declares-partnership-with-hill-gop-embraces-tax-proposal">border adjustment</a>” into a broader reform of corporate income taxes. This proposal, while less troubling than the two actions above, could have even longer-term consequences. </p>
<p>To improve the trade balance, the tax reform would allow U.S. companies to write off the value of their exports but would also require them to pay taxes on the inputs that they import. The problem is that this tax reform would likely violate America’s <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/republican-tax-reform-trade-war-232251">WTO commitments</a>, inviting in the process legal action and retaliation.</p>
<p>Moreover, the president’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/28/us/politics/annotating-trump-immigration-refugee-order.html">new executive order</a> on immigration can also be seen as a symptom of “America first” thinking. It exchanges the talents of foreign workers, the goodwill of the Muslim world and the American tradition of nondiscrimination for the elusive promise of increased security. The gains, if any, will be small and temporary, while the <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/30/trump-immigration-ban-could-have-catastrophic-impact-on-us-commentary.html">costs will be much larger</a> and more enduring.</p>
<h2>America first puts America last</h2>
<p>To see what is wrong with Trump’s “America first” economic policy, we need to return to the basics. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://modeledbehavior.com/2010/08/24/consensu-among-economists/">overwhelming majority of economists</a> agree that prosperity requires countries to specialize in what they are good at producing, rather than trying to make and consume everything domestically. And the only way that specialization can work is if countries <a href="https://www.amazon.com/International-Economics-Theory-Policy-Pearson/dp/0133423646/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1485552719&sr=8-1&keywords=krugman+and+obstfeld">trade with one another</a> and also allow a degree of capital and even labor mobility. </p>
<p>Since an open international system requires mutual consent, it also demands that the world’s most powerful country think beyond the moment and make temporary sacrifices to preserve the structure of economic relations that has benefited it so much in the past. And it demands that that country encourage others to remain open, use its foreign aid and internal market to promote development abroad and lead with its ideas. </p>
<p>In this sense, the old internationalism of “enlightened self-interest” is the only real way to put America first. </p>
<p>If the United States reverts to protectionism and isolationism, Trump may find satisfaction in punishing China for its exchange rate policy or in preventing some factories from moving to Mexico. </p>
<p>But the loss of American commitment to economic internationalism will probably signal the demise of the postwar system, a system that may be imperfect but that has brought prosperity and peace to millions. And if that happens, the first victim will be the United States itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71931/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Hankla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump’s ‘America first’ rhetoric implies that the internationalism and ‘enlightened self-interest’ that built the postwar order was a big mistake. The evidence and basic economics disagree.Charles Hankla, Associate Professor of Political Science, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.