tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/australian-conservatives-35602/articlesAustralian Conservatives – The Conversation2019-06-21T07:41:30Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1192442019-06-21T07:41:30Z2019-06-21T07:41:30ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the winding up of Australian Conservatives - and the government’s income tax cuts<figure>
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<p>Michelle Grattan talks with University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor for Research and Innovation, Professor Leigh Sullivan, about the week in politics.</p>
<p>The discussion includes Cory Bernardi announcing that he will be winding up his party, the Australian Conservatives; how the government’s income tax cuts may play out; the reignition of the debate on the medevac bill; and whether there is a resolution in sight following last week’s allegations against Victorian construction union boss John Setka.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119244/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Leigh Sullivan speaks with Michelle Grattan about the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1191862019-06-20T10:42:27Z2019-06-20T10:42:27ZCory Bernardi to disband Australian Conservatives<p>Senator Cory Bernardi will wind up his Australian Conservatives party, after its abysmal showing at the election.</p>
<p>Bernardi, who defected from the Liberals and formed the party in 2017, said on Thursday: “The inescapable conclusion from our lack of political success, our financial position and the re-election of a Morrison-led government is that the rationale for the creation of the Australian Conservatives is no longer valid.</p>
<p>"Accordingly, I will shortly begin the process of formally deregistering the Australian Conservatives as a political party.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-south-australia-heads-to-the-polls-the-state-is-at-a-crossroads-93265">As South Australia heads to the polls, the state is at a crossroads</a>
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<p>There has been speculation that the South Australian senator - who is making it clear he wants to do all he can to help the Morrison government - may seek to rejoin the Liberals.</p>
<p>He told The Conversation: “I have not thought about it. My focus has been on the future of the [Australian Conservatives] party and will now consider what role I may or may not play in the next parliament”.</p>
<p>In his statement he said, “the Morrison government victory and policy agenda suggests we are well on the way to restoring common sense in the Australian parliament. That is all we, as Australian Conservatives, have ever sought to do.”</p>
<p>The Australian Conservatives attracted some disillusioned Liberal supporters while Malcolm Turnbull was prime minister.</p>
<p>The party swallowed the small conservative party Family First, which briefly gave it two South Australian state parliamentarians. It also briefly had representation in the Victorian parliament, with the defection to it of a Democratic Labour Party upper house member.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/bernardi-split-is-symptomatic-of-a-fractured-political-system-here-and-abroad-72721">Bernardi split is symptomatic of a fractured political system, here and abroad</a>
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<p>Bernardi said times were “very different” when he launched his party in early 2017.</p>
<p>“Malcolm Turnbull was leading a Labor-lite Coalition into political oblivion. As they abandoned their supporter base in pursuit of green-left policies, major party politics became an echo chamber rather than a battle of ideas.</p>
<p>"The fact that over 22,000 people formally joined the Australian Conservatives in our first year demonstrated just how badly the Coalition were haemorrhaging supporters who wanted their enduring values and traditional principles upheld.</p>
<p>"However, the decision to make Scott Morrison prime minister truly changed the political climate and our political fortunes.</p>
<p>"Rather than punish the Coalition for another new leader, many Conservatives breathed a sigh of relief that a man of faith and values was leading the Liberals back to their traditional policy platform.”</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/bernardi-should-have-resigned-his-senate-seat-heres-why-72581">Bernardi should have resigned his Senate seat: here's why</a>
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<p>Bernardi said that at the election the party polled “a tiny fraction of the votes” required for success. </p>
<p>“We can make all the excuses in the world for the result but it is clear that many of our potential voters returned to supporting the Coalition when Malcolm Turnbull was replaced by Scott Morrison.</p>
<p>"Although we made it clear in the lead-up to the campaign that we were only running in the Senate so as not to be the catalyst for a change of government, our message didn’t get through.”</p>
<p>He said that while he had been urged to “deliberately court controversy” during the election to win attention, this “would have undermined the very premise of what we offered to the Australian people – a credible and principled alternative to the political fringe.</p>
<p>"Unfortunately steady and sensible didn’t work and it was frustrating that some single interest parties gained more votes than we did.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119186/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Bernardi said that at the election his Australian Conservative party polled “a tiny fraction of the votes” required. He said potential voters returned to supporting the Coalition under Morrison.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/935532018-03-18T02:31:26Z2018-03-18T02:31:26ZAfter 16 years, electoral dynamics finally caught up with Labor in South Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210895/original/file-20180318-104699-1uhroka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Labor leader Jay Weatherill concedes defeat as South Australians opt to toss the party out after 16 years.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Mariuz</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>History, finally, caught up with Labor in South Australia. After 16 years in office, and seeking a record fifth term, Jay Weatherill’s Labor has conceded to the Liberals. </p>
<p>While the results have not been finalised, the current state of play has Steven Marshall’s Liberals securing a majority. In the projected seat tally, the Liberals have won 24, Labor 18, independents three, and two seats remain undecided. This is a remarkable and unexpected result for a range of reasons.</p>
<p>Elections, as <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/xenophon-falls-short-in-major-election-disappointment-20180317-p4z4wf.html">Nick Xenophon is discovering</a>, have a cold, hard way of clarifying the minds of the voters. </p>
<p>Only two days before the election, most of the major betting agencies had far more favourable odds for a Labor win. <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/are-the-punters-better-than-the-pollsters-at-predicting-elections-20160528-gp64e9.html">Betting odds</a> are sometimes seen as better predictors of election results than polls.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-win-south-australian-election-as-xenophon-crushed-while-labor-stuns-the-greens-in-batman-93355">Liberals win South Australian election as Xenophon crushed, while Labor stuns the Greens in Batman</a>
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<p>So, as we still pick over the results, what seemed to go right for the Liberals and so wrong for Nick Xenophon’s SA-Best team? </p>
<p>For the Liberals, while this was a win, it was not as resounding as, say, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2006/news/stories/1595270.htm?elections/sa/2006/">Mike Rann’s 2006</a> “Rann-slide”. Yet, it has been a result a long time coming, having won the popular vote in three of the past four state elections. Marshall’s campaign centred on him being a “safe” change-agent. </p>
<p>Marshall’s success lies in a range of incremental factors. First, he put to bed the historic divisions in the party. <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/sa-liberal-leader-ready-for-life-under-marshall-law/news-story/c64c7046b37201dff574cefa8f588e61">In a striking insight</a>, he followed John Howard’s advice not to have votes at shadow cabinet meetings, but decide by consensus. New leadership, coupled with the misery of the long years in the wilderness, helped cement party unity.</p>
<p>Second, Marshall’s policy agenda has remained consistent and undramatic. When he launched his first 100 days in office, this was a smart relaunch of policies already well-known. It might have lacked a “wow” factor, but this has proven to be an asset. South Australians will now see cuts to household bills, a roll-out of a home battery scheme, and a push to deregulate working hours. </p>
<p>Third, the Liberals finally managed to make the most of the ammunition of Labor’s 16 years in office, especially the release of the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-28/icac-report-on-oakden-aged-care-home-released/9492008">Oakden report</a> into abuse at the state-run mental health facility. The Liberals capitalised on this with a <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/sa-oakden/video/378f935c807cd9b3877879b7093dd524">powerful campaign ad</a> by the son of one of the victims, saying he “had enough” of Labor. </p>
<p>Yet, the story of the night was the deflation of the Xenophon SA-Best threat to the major parties. SA-Best looks set to secure just 13.7% of the vote, much lower than even lowered expectations. </p>
<p>The Xenophon vote fail to carry through – arguably for the following reasons. </p>
<p>First, there was overreach by Xenophon, perhaps mistakenly buoyed by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nick-xenophon-could-be-south-australias-next-premier-while-turnbull-loses-his-25th-successive-newspoll-89290">December Newspoll</a> that not only suggested his party could hoover up a third of the vote, but also dangling the prospect of Xenophon as future premier.</p>
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<span class="caption">Nick Xenophon and SA-Best may have been too ambitious at this election, with a disappointing result.</span>
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<p>Running 36 SA-Best candidates proved a stretch too far for South Australian voters. </p>
<p>Second, the SA-Best machine seemed ill-equipped and under-prepared for the campaign. Policy announcements came late in the campaign, giving the veneer of “policy on the run”.</p>
<p>In other key seats, some untested SA-Best candidates met difficult challenges. In Colton, Matt Cowdrey, the Liberal candidate and former Paralympian, easily saw off the SA-Best candidate. In Mawson – a key SA-Best target – Leon Bignell the Labor (now former) minister ran a strong campaign to damage Xenophon hopes.</p>
<p>The thinness of the SA-Best “machine” might prove a factor, as candidates were recruited late in the piece, and some did not seem quite ready for the media scrutiny, nor have enough time to embed themselves as the SA-Best candidate in their seats. </p>
<p>Voters also seem to have pulled back from the unclear positioning of SA-Best. After the initial honeymoon, SA-Best shifted from its traditional “watchdog” role – previously held by the Democrats – to presenting as a “kingmaker”. This brought additional scrutiny and expectation, pushing Xenophon onto the back foot.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-south-australia-heads-to-the-polls-the-state-is-at-a-crossroads-93265">As South Australia heads to the polls, the state is at a crossroads</a>
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<p>In the final weeks of the campaign, Xenophon was playing to his familiar strength – gambling reform – but voters expected a more embracing policy agenda. </p>
<p>Finally, the Australian political system is undergoing change, but the institutional factors continue to suppress minor party challengers. The lower house, with its majoritarian electoral system, requires a strong performance by the next best-placed challenger. Three-into-two does not easily go. </p>
<p>It is notable too, that the election did not go as planned for other parties. The Australian Conservatives clearly failed to capitalise on their merger with Family First, with a drop in their vote share to 3.1%.</p>
<p>For Labor, the result is far from a disaster, and offers them the chance to rebuild, perhaps with a new leader in Peter Malinauskas.</p>
<p>Critically, Australian democracy seems more accelerated, with Liberal governments in Victoria and Queensland ejected after just one term. Marshall will need to move quickly to ensure his new government does not follow this new trend.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93553/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Manwaring is affiliated with The Fabians.</span></em></p>While Labor lost in South Australia it was far from a disaster, and new Liberal premier Steven Marshall will need to move quickly to ensure he does not test voters’ patience.Rob Manwaring, Senior Lecturer, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/932652018-03-15T19:09:23Z2018-03-15T19:09:23ZAs South Australia heads to the polls, the state is at a crossroads<p>Uncertainty is nothing new to South Australia. Over the past decade, the state has faced a range of economic and political unknowns. </p>
<p>In 2014, BHP’s decision not to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/bhp-changes-its-tune-on-olympic-dam-project-20140802-zzp9d.html">expand its Olympic Dam site</a> triggered a period of economic uncertainty. A year later, South Australia had the highest unemployment in the nation. Further, the state was hit with the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-08/holden-closure-australia-history-car-manufacturing/9015562">closure of the Holden plant</a>, the uncertainty over the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-22/billion-dollar-whyalla-plan-unveiled/9282706">steelworks in Whyalla</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout-66268">the blackouts of 2016</a>. </p>
<p>The incumbent Labor government, seeking a record fifth term in office, has been active. Premier Jay Weatherill, and his indefatigable treasurer, Tom Koutsantonis, are keen to birth a “new economy” in South Australia. In effect, the government is trying to diversify and strengthen the state since the decline of the resources boom. </p>
<p>As South Australians head to the polls on Saturday, it remains unclear which vision of the state’s future will most likely attract their vote.</p>
<p>Labor is gambling big by spending big. Following classic Keynesian economics, its stimulus agenda includes a A$2 billion infrastructure spend, high-speed internet, extending the tram network, and a bold target of 75% renewables by 2025. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-would-pokies-reform-in-south-australia-wipe-out-many-of-26-000-jobs-93189">FactCheck: would pokies reform in South Australia wipe out 'many' of 26,000 jobs?</a>
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<p>In contrast, Steven Marshall’s Liberals favour cuts to payroll tax, cuts to electricity bills, and less ambitious infrastructure spending (40,000 homes with solar and batteries, compared with Labor’s 50,000).</p>
<p>In addition, the Liberals have focused on improving electricity inflow from interstate, and new agencies to improve productivity and infrastructure development. They were also pointing to Labor’s policy problems in TAFE, health and – most notably – <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-28/icac-report-on-oakden-aged-care-home-released/9492008">child protection and mental health</a>.</p>
<p>Marshall has been more sure-footed in his second tilt at outwitting Labor’s formidable electoral machine. He has seemingly put to bed internal party divisions that haunted previous campaigns.</p>
<p>The Liberals are also hoping they can capitalise on a favourable <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2017/sa/index.htm">electoral boundary redistribution</a>. The Liberal vote has long been concentrated in rural seats, and Marshall is seeking broader appeal with his vision for a “Strong Plan for Real Change”. </p>
<p>What was looking like a relatively classic Labor versus Liberal fight was thrown into confusion with Nick Xenophon’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/xenophons-shock-resignation-from-senate-to-run-for-state-seat-85322">return to South Australian politics</a>. An initial honeymoon saw a surge of support for his SA-Best party, now running 36 candidates across the 47 seats in the lower house.</p>
<p>In December, <a href="https://theconversation.com/nick-xenophon-could-be-south-australias-next-premier-while-turnbull-loses-his-25th-successive-newspoll-89290">a shock Newspoll</a> result had SA-Best’s primary vote at a huge 32%. Subsequent polls seem to suggest this might have deflated.</p>
<p>Xenophon is seeking to capitalise on what he perceives to the “broken politics” of the old two-party axis, with a tired Labor government and the Liberals with a leader whose personal popularity has rarely exceeded the premier’s. </p>
<p>Xenophon has managed something that Australian politics has not seen since the late 1990s, with a centrist challenger posing an electoral threat to the major parties. The vote for the two major parties has been in decline for some time in Australia. The 2016 federal election produced the largest-ever vote for the minors. </p>
<p>South Australian politics, likes its economy, is also in transition. </p>
<p>Ironically, the surge in support for the SA-Best candidates seems to have had a negative impact on the other minor parties. Polling suggests the vote share for the Greens is down from about 10% to 6%. In the Legislative Council, Kelly Vincent, the Dignity candidate, looks set to lose her seat. Limited media space means the other minors are struggling to get heard.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-australian-soft-voters-inclined-to-change-their-government-but-not-impressed-with-the-alternative-93198">South Australian 'soft' voters inclined to change their government but not impressed with the alternative</a>
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<p>The other striking development is that this is the first election to test the electoral strength of Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives since their merger with Family First (another party with South Australian origins). The Australian Conservatives have taken up one of Labor’s abandoned causes: to establish a nuclear waste facility in South Australia.</p>
<p>With an electoral race this uncertain and with no clear front-runner, many close seats will come down to preferences and pre-polls. </p>
<p>Remarkably for a leader, Marshall has already cast his vote. Indeed, the Liberals are wagering that like-minded voters will also vote early, and they hope to capitalise on the release of the <a href="https://icac.sa.gov.au/content/oakden">ICAC report</a> into the abuse at the Oakden mental health facility. The report damaged Labor’s campaign a fortnight out from the polls.</p>
<p>Labor, ever-savvy, is playing a clever game with preferences, splitting the ticket across the state between SA-Best and the Liberals. </p>
<p>Intriguingly, Labor has done a deal with the Australian Conservatives to secure their preferences in three marginal Labor seats (Light, Lee and Newland), in return putting the Conservatives third on their Legislative Council ticket. </p>
<p>On Saturday night, the focus will be on the seat of Hartley – a microcosm of the election. Nick Xenophon will be seeking to beat Liberal incumbent Vincent Tarzia and fend off former ALP minister Grace Portolesi. The outcome of this three-horse race is still uncertain, much like the state’s wider economic and political future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93265/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Manwaring is a member of The Fabians. </span></em></p>Much is in play for South Australia in this weekend’s state election – politically and economically.Rob Manwaring, Senior Lecturer, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/905242018-01-23T03:58:42Z2018-01-23T03:58:42ZMoral rights, artistic integrity and Cory Bernardi’s Australia Day playlist<p>Amid the debate over changing the date of Australia Day and Triple J’s announcement of moving the Hottest 100 countdown, Senator Cory Bernardi, leader of the Australian Conservative political party, has sparked criticism for arranging his own <a href="https://www.conservatives.org.au/celebrating_australia_day_listening_to_the_ac_100">Australia Day playlist on Spotify</a>.</p>
<p>The “AC100” includes such classic choices as Men At Work’s Down Under and John Farnham’s You’re the Voice, as well as iterations of Waltzing Matilda and the national anthem. Odder inclusions are perhaps Kylie Minogue’s I Should Be So Lucky and Iggy Azalea’s Trouble. </p>
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<p><a href="http://themusic.com.au/news/all/2018/01/18/darren-hayes-leads-backlash-against-cory-bernardis-hottest-100-protest-playlist/">Artists such as Darren Hayes</a>, Spiderbait and the Hilltop Hoods have objected to being included in the playlist. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-18/cory-bernardi-launches-alternative-hottest-100-playlist/9338566">Bernardi responded on ABC radio</a> that these objections amounted to “intolerant censorship”. </p>
<p>A lawyer acting for You Am I frontman <a href="http://themusic.com.au/news/all/2018/01/20/tim-rogers-threatens-cory-bernardi-with-legal-action;-another-aussie-act-defends-protest-playlist/">Tim Rogers has said</a> that he may seek legal action to have the band’s song, Berlin Chair, removed from the playlist. Michael Bradley, managing partner of Marque Lawyers, told The Herald Sun: </p>
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<p>It is not about adding his song to a playlist, big deal. The critical point is that it is being used for a political purpose … it is being co-opted for a cause which is the opposite of what he believes in.</p>
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<p>Rogers’s argument rests on relatively obscure legal provisions known as moral rights to protect his integrity as an artist. </p>
<p>There has been little attention paid to moral rights in Australia, mainly due to the fact that successful cases are normally tacked on to copyright claims and the damages awarded are normally quite small. </p>
<p>Rogers may have a case, however, if he can prove that being on the list was damaging to his honour or reputation - that people are likely to falsely associate his music with the Australian Conservative Party.</p>
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<h2>What are moral rights?</h2>
<p>Moral rights were introduced into Australia’s Copyright act in 2000, but they are very different to the traditional rights authors have over their work. They are retained by an author or artist even when copyright is signed over to someone else.</p>
<p>The moral right provisions in the Copyright Act give musicians such as Rogers the right not to have their work subjected to derogatory treatment. Derogatory treatment, in relation to a musical work, is defined in the act as: </p>
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<p>the doing, in relation to the work, of anything that results in a material distortion of, the mutilation of, or a material alteration to, the work that is prejudicial to the author’s honour or reputation </p>
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<p>or, </p>
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<p>the doing of anything else in relation to the work that is prejudicial to the author’s honour or reputation.</p>
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<p>The question then is: can the “doing of anything else” be as simple as including the title and artist on a list? The explanatory memorandum to the bill explains that this part of the definition refers to where work “is used in an inappropriate context”, which could be argued here.</p>
<p>Rogers would then have to prove that including his song on the playlist is prejudicial. There is an argument for capacity for harm in that people would then associate the musician with that particular “brand” of politics. Even if a musician’s reputation is heightened by being included on a playlist - with perhaps more people listening - it could still be prejudicial if the association is personally offensive. </p>
<p>In the past, the very few Australian cases involving moral rights have awarded no damages or only minimal damages to artists. Often, cases involving moral rights have been part of a wider copyright breach.</p>
<p>For instance, in 2006 a <a href="https://www.communicationscouncil.org.au/public/content/viewCategory.aspx?id=748">photographer, Vladas Meskenas</a>, won a case against the magazine Woman’s Day after it mis-attributed a photo to another artist. The court found Meskenas’s moral rights had been infringed because he wasn’t properly attributed, even though he didn’t hold copyright to the portrait. Meskenas was awarded just under $10,000 in damages. </p>
<p>More recently, in 2012 the US musician <a href="http://www.davies.com.au/ip-news/sample-leaves-dj-in-red-for-damages-for-infringement-of-rappers-moral-right">Pitbull won a case against an Australian DJ</a> after he added an introduction to one of Pitbull’s songs. Pitbull was also awarded damages of $10,000. </p>
<p>An untested question in Australia is whether being included on a political party’s playlist without permission could be derogatory treatment under the moral rights provisions in the Copyright Act. </p>
<p>If Rogers were to seek legal action, and he was successful, the court could order an injunction to have the song removed from the playlist, damages for any loss, removal of the playlist and a declaration that moral rights have been infringed. It could also order Bernardi to make a public apology for the infringement.</p>
<p>But with very few cases litigated in this area the prospects of success are uncertain. It will be interesting if the case does go ahead to see the limits of moral rights and the limit of artists’ control over their creations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Sarah Hook is not affiliated with nor receives any funding from any political association, industry association or other relevant bodies in connection with this article.</span></em></p>Tim Rogers has threatened to take legal action after one of his songs was included in Cory Bernardi’s conservative Australia Day playlist. Rogers’s case rests on obscure legal provisions known as moral rights.Sarah Hook, Lecturer in Law, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/859902017-10-19T05:27:58Z2017-10-19T05:27:58ZPolitics podcast: Tiernan Brady and Cory Bernardi reflect on the marriage postal ballot<p>There are still a few weeks left to run in the same-sex marriage postal ballot campaign, and millions of votes are yet to be returned – or not returned.</p>
<p>With 67.5% of ballots now in, Equality Campaign executive director Tiernan Brady says the high turnout shows the importance of a “yes” vote to people’s lives and dignity. </p>
<p>He says tyranny of distance in Australia has made campaigning difficult, compared to his experience during Ireland’s marriage referendum.</p>
<p>Despite criticism of what some saw as invasive tactics, Brady describes the efforts made by the “yes” campaign as largely positive and respectful. However, he admits there have been unfortunate incidents and “clowns” on both sides, but that they were largely “on the fringe”.</p>
<p>On the “no” side, Australian Conservatives senator Cory Bernardi is unwilling to concede defeat. He praises the “grassroots movement” and “rockstar” mums and dads. </p>
<p>On the Abbott factor, he says high-profile “no” voters have been “very effective”.</p>
<p>If the “yes” vote wins, Bernardi foresees a few contentious debates over protections for religious freedoms and freedom of speech. “If the government is serious … they won’t embrace the [Liberal senator Dean] Smith bill.”</p>
<p>Bernardi’s party has benefited somewhat from the same-sex marriage debate: he estimates his party now has the third-largest membership in Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Equality Campaign executive director Tiernan Brady and Australian Conservatives senator Cory Bernardi reflect on the marriage postal ballot campaign.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/844372017-10-01T18:37:38Z2017-10-01T18:37:38ZFactCheck: will Safe Schools be ‘mandatory’ if same-sex marriage is legalised?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/187339/original/file-20170925-17375-15ckx9p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This pamphlet, authorised by the Australian Conservatives, was received in a letter box in a Victorian suburb in September.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>If same-sex marriage is legalised, Safe Schools and others like it will be mandatory in schools. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>– Australian Conservatives <a href="https://www.conservatives.org.au/voteno_material">“Vote No” campaign material</a>, September, 2017.</strong> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186962/original/file-20170921-8185-44xcm9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186962/original/file-20170921-8185-44xcm9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186962/original/file-20170921-8185-44xcm9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186962/original/file-20170921-8185-44xcm9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186962/original/file-20170921-8185-44xcm9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186962/original/file-20170921-8185-44xcm9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186962/original/file-20170921-8185-44xcm9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186962/original/file-20170921-8185-44xcm9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Vote No’ campaign material authorised by the Australian Conservatives party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.conservatives.org.au/stop_the_safe_schools_agenda#safeschools">Australian Conservatives</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Campaigning for and against same-sex marriage continues as Australians respond to a <a href="https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/">national voluntary postal survey</a> asking whether same-sex couples should be able to marry under Australian law.</p>
<p>“Vote No” campaign material distributed by the Australian Conservatives, a political party founded by Senator Cory Bernardi, claims that “if same-sex marriage is legalised, Safe Schools and others like it will be mandatory in schools”.</p>
<p>Let’s look at the facts. </p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>The Conversation contacted the Australian Conservatives requesting sources to support the claims made in the party’s “Vote No” campaign material, but did not receive a response. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>The information published in the Australian Conservatives “Vote No” campaign material is incorrect and misleading.</p>
<p>There is no link between the federal Marriage Act and the Australian Curriculum.</p>
<p>The Safe Schools program is a resource for schools and teachers to use at their own discretion. It is not a “mandatory” part of any national, state or territory curriculum – and never was. Making such programs mandatory in the classroom would be inconsistent with curriculum policy and practice in Australia. </p>
<h2>There is no link between same-sex marriage and Safe Schools</h2>
<p>Let’s cover the basic points first:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ma196185/">federal Marriage Act</a> and the <a href="http://www.australia.gov.au/information-and-services/education-and-training/curriculum">Australian Curriculum</a> are not related to each other. Any change to one does not have any effect on the other</p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/">postal survey</a> currently being conducted asking whether the law should be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry has no relation to teacher professional development and learning resources made available to schools, and </p></li>
<li><p>whether or not same-sex marriage is legalised in Australia also has no relation to teacher professional development and learning resources made available to schools. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>However, because such claims are being made, let’s take a closer look.</p>
<h2>What is the Safe Schools program?</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/">Safe Schools Coalition Australia</a> was <a href="http://www.education.vic.gov.au/about/programs/health/Pages/safe-schools-coalition.aspx?Redirect=1#link93">first established by the Victorian Government in 2010</a>. It’s now a <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/our-supporters/organisations">national network</a> convened by the <a href="https://www.fya.org.au/our-programs/">Foundation for Young Australians</a>, and delivered by <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/contact-us">partner organisations</a> in several Australian states and territories. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/resources">published aim</a> of the Safe Schools Coalition is “to help school staff create safer and more inclusive environments for same sex attracted, intersex and gender diverse students, school staff and families”.</p>
<p>The Safe Schools program provides <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/resources">optional resources</a> for secondary schools, including professional development for teachers and one <a href="https://www.studentwellbeinghub.edu.au/resources/detail?id=72144922-d5c5-6d32-997d-ff0000a69c30#/">classroom-level teaching resource</a> designed for Year 7 and 8 students.</p>
<p>All of the Safe Schools resources are optional, and not a mandatory component of any national, state or territory curriculum.</p>
<p>Schools that choose to participate in the Safe Schools program are <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/resources">expected</a> to make their own judgements about which policies and practices they adopt and which resources they use. </p>
<h2>State and territory support for Safe Schools</h2>
<p>The Safe Schools program is supported in some form by several state and territory governments. But it is not a compulsory part of the curriculum in any Australian jurisdiction. </p>
<p>The Safe Schools program received <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/news/safe-schools-coalition-australia-launched">federal funding</a> for four years, <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/from-a-safe-schools-coalition-australia-ssca-spokesperson-4">but this ended in June 2017</a>. Some state and territory governments have committed to continue funding the program to make it available for government schools. Independent (non-government) schools set their own policies about which programs they will fund and/or implement. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.education.vic.gov.au/about/programs/health/Pages/safe-schools-coalition.aspx?Redirect=1">Victoria</a>, the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-26/safe-schools-act-government-funding-federal-changes/7790254">Australian Capital Territory</a> and <a href="https://www.markmcgowan.com.au/news/wa-labor-to-fundsafeschools-in-western-australia-1141">Western Australia</a> will continue to fund the program. <a href="https://www.decd.sa.gov.au/department/media-centre/news/new-safe-schools-anti-bullying-program">South Australia</a> is funding a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-17/sa-to-push-ahead-with-revised-safe-schools-program/8534682">revised</a> <a href="https://www.shinesa.org.au/community-information/sexual-gender-diversity/shine-sa-safe-schools/">version</a> of the Safe Schools program. </p>
<p>Safe Schools will continue to provide professional development for teachers in Queensland, although the government is <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/kate-jones-denies-qld-safe-schools-cuts/news-story/70245fcbdbaa72fe9d8c1f2d7e750e14">yet to confirm</a> whether it will fund the program when its federal allocation runs out in October.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/4603979/safe-schools-funding-cuts/">Tasmania</a> and New South Wales <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/nsw-education-minister-rob-stokes-to-dump-safe-schools-program-20170416-gvlp47.html">will not be funding the program</a>, with both states <a href="http://www.dec.nsw.gov.au/about-us/news-at-det/media-releases/minister-stokes/launch-of-new-school-anti-bullying-strategy">replacing it</a> with <a href="https://antibullying.nsw.gov.au/">other anti-bullying resources</a>.</p>
<p>In March 2017 the Victorian Department of Education and Training <a href="http://www.jamesmerlino.com.au/news/safe-schools-program/">took responsibility for the delivery</a> of Safe Schools in that state. The Victorian government has <a href="http://www.education.vic.gov.au/about/programs/health/Pages/safe-schools-coalition.aspx?Redirect=1">said</a> that it will expand the program “to all government secondary schools by the end of 2018”. But as the government <a href="http://www.education.vic.gov.au/about/programs/health/Pages/safe-schools-coalition.aspx?Redirect=1#link56">has outlined</a>, schools will have discretion about using the program:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Safe Schools program helps schools foster a safe environment that is supportive and inclusive of LGBTI students. How this commitment is realised is determined by each school, based on its local context and the needs of its school community. </p>
<p>Safe Schools is not a subject in the curriculum, nor is it prescriptive in any way. Schools have the discretion to use as many or as few of the resources, training materials, and other support that the program offers to help them deliver their commitment.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Safe Schools is not a ‘mandatory’ part of any Australian curriculum</h2>
<p>In each Australian state and territory there is a compulsory <a href="http://www.australia.gov.au/information-and-services/education-and-training/school-education">Foundation to Year 10 curriculum</a>. The curriculums vary from one state or territory to another, but all resemble the <a href="https://australiancurriculum.edu.au/">Australian Curriculum</a>. All government and independent (private) schools are required to teach according to the relevant state or territory curriculum.</p>
<p>The curriculum outlines the subjects that must be taught (maths and English, for example) and the content descriptions for those subjects. As an example, here’s <a href="https://www.australiancurriculum.edu.au/Search/?q=ACPPS074">one of the Australian Curriculum content descriptions</a> for <a href="https://australiancurriculum.edu.au/f-10-curriculum/health-and-physical-education/?strand=Personal,+Social+and+Community+Health&strand=Movement+and+Physical+Activity&capability=ignore&priority=ignore&elaborations=true">health and physical education</a> for Year 7 and 8 students:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Investigate the benefits of relationships and examine their impact on their own and others’ health and well being.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Teachers following the Australian Curriculum are expected to teach this content, but there are no compulsory lesson plans, activities or textbooks. </p>
<p>The Safe Schools program is one of many <a href="https://www.scootle.edu.au/ec/p/about">sets</a> of <a href="http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/edresources/teacherskits.htm">optional</a> <a href="https://www.moneysmart.gov.au/teaching/teaching-resources">resources</a> available for teachers. </p>
<p>Making any of these lesson plans or resources compulsory would be inconsistent with curriculum policy and practice in Australia, which regulates the subjects and content students are taught, not any resources used at a classroom level.</p>
<h2>Blind review #1</h2>
<p>The verdict is valid. The explanation provided is accurate and balanced, and the source material is correct and appropriate.</p>
<p>The resources that teachers use in implementing their lessons is a matter of professional judgement in the context of the particular needs of their students.</p>
<p>There are no outcomes or content descriptions in either the Australian Curriculum or various state/territory curriculum documents that would require teachers to use the Safe Schools resources. <strong>– Philip Roberts</strong></p>
<h2>Blind review #2</h2>
<p>The FactCheck is correct. Whether or not same-sex marriage is legalised has no bearing on whether states or schools would engage with any particular teacher professional development or learning resource. </p>
<p>There is one clarification regarding the term “curriculum”. Many people argue that the school curriculum is the list of school subjects that are taught to students. Safe Schools is not required as a school subject, or within a school subject.</p>
<p>Others claim “curriculum” consists of all the planned learning offered to students. Using this definition, if an individual school or state required Safe Schools to be part of the student learning experience, then it would become a mandatory part of a school curriculum. Even in such cases, the engagement with any program would be the responsibility of individual schools. Again, this has no relation to the outcome of the postal survey, or any subsequent legislation.</p>
<p>In conclusion, the FactCheck verdict is correct. Safe Schools will not be made mandatory in schools as a result of same-sex marriage being legal in Australia. <strong>– Murray Print</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit is the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84437/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Louden has received funding in the past from state and federal governments. He was previously on the board of the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA). In 2016, Bill Louden was commissioned by Education Minister Simon Birmingham to conduct an independent review into the appropriateness and efficacy of the Safe Schools Coalition Australia program resources.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Print has received government research grants.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Roberts has received funding from the Australian government.</span></em></p>‘Vote No’ campaign material distributed by the Australian Conservatives claims that if same-sex marriage is legalised, the Safe Schools program will be ‘mandatory in schools’. We looked at the facts.Bill Louden, Emeritus Professor of Education, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/813552017-07-20T12:42:40Z2017-07-20T12:42:40ZGrattan on Friday: Abbott shapes up in Liberals’ fight over their ‘internals’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/179024/original/file-20170720-24021-bekdqn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tony Abbott is showing no sign of backing off his continual challenges to the government in his public commentary.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Esposito/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cory Bernardi, the senator who defected from the Liberals to found the Australian Conservatives, sits like a crow on a fence as those in his former party fight bitterly over its directions and organisation.</p>
<p>Whatever the future holds for the Australian Conservatives – and it will inevitably be an uphill battle – Bernardi could not ask for more auspicious circumstances in which to recruit.</p>
<p>Bernardi’s party has nearly 13,000 members nationally – the youngest 15 and the oldest almost 102 – with around 4,000 in New South Wales. The NSW figure compares with a Liberal Party membership in that state said to be about 11,000, although some internal critics claim the number is much smaller.</p>
<p>The Australian Conservatives have three state MPs: two South Australian upper house members as a result of its absorption of Family First, and a former DLP member of the Victorian parliament.</p>
<p>Bernardi says about 40% of Australian Conservative members were formerly members or active supporters of the Coalition parties. Some former Liberals probably see the Australian Conservatives as “the party they joined originally”, he says.</p>
<p>Bernardi might have an eye on potential pickings following this weekend’s NSW Liberal convention.</p>
<p>The issue at the special meeting is the rules – for which read the distribution of power – in the party’s NSW division, which is controlled by a tight factional combination of moderates and soft right.</p>
<p>Tony Abbott and other disgruntled conservatives are trying to win support for reform in how candidates are preselected and party officials are chosen. A motion from Abbott’s Warringah federal electorate conference (FEC) proposes plebiscites for all candidates and direct election for the party positions. Although other states have plebiscites, in its sweep the Warringah blueprint is radical change on steroids.</p>
<p>Some predict a loss of members to the Australian Conservatives if there is not significant change. Bernardi already has a following within the NSW Liberals – he has been invited to appear at its Roseville branch next month.</p>
<p>While the possible implications for Bernardi’s party are an intriguing aspect of the weekend’s debate, the immediate focus will be on its consequences for the Abbott-Turnbull conflict, in which – despite disclaimers – it is being seen as another episode.</p>
<p>The party’s open wound has been on full display again this week. On Sunday new Liberal federal president Nick Greiner warned of the damage being done and called for the two men to resolve things “face to face”.</p>
<p>“If we are not able to present a compelling unified face to the Australian public we won’t win the election in two years time – I think it is as simple and as stark as that,” Greiner said.</p>
<p>He’s right, of course. But highlighting the problem is only useful if it helps get a solution – otherwise it just draws more attention to it, putting Turnbull in an awkward position.</p>
<p>On Thursday he was asked by 3AW’s Neil Mitchell: “what’s wrong with picking up the phone and saying, ‘Tony, green tea, my office, let’s talk about it’?” Turnbull replied: “I look forward to catching up with him again soon when parliament gets back if not before”, adding that he’d been going to say he’d known Abbott “for a million years – it may feel like a million years – it’s about 40 years”.</p>
<p>Indeed. Even right back in those early days, these two were on different pages, as recalled in a <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/yung-tone?utm_term=.enAJlZMAk#.asDBrw1Xg">BuzzFeed article</a> this month. Turnbull, writing for The Bulletin in 1978, disparaged student politician Abbott’s “rather boisterous and immature rhetoric” and argued that his “conservative moral views” were too much for the general student constituency.</p>
<p>Turnbull can’t fix his Abbott problem. Even if he brought him into cabinet, which he won’t, it would likely eventually end in tears.</p>
<p>Abbott, for his part, is showing no sign of backing off his continual challenge to the government in his public commentary. His latest criticism was of this week’s decision for a home affairs department; he said the advice to his government was that such a “massive bureaucratic change” wasn’t needed.</p>
<p>Abbott has invested a great deal in his push for party reform, and so has a lot of credibility at stake in the convention’s result. No-one is sure how it will unfold. Open to all party members, and subject to “stacks”, about 1,400 have signed up to attend. Its outcome won’t be the end of the matter – decisions rest with the state council.</p>
<p>Turnbull, squeezed between factional allies who want to limit reform and militant rank-and-filers, addresses the convention on Saturday morning. He has previously indicated he is in favour of plebiscites, but looks for measured changes rather than Warringah’s full monty.</p>
<p>Compromise positions are being pressed by backbencher Julian Leeser and assistant minister Alex Hawke.</p>
<p>Among the restrictions proposed for plebiscites are a longer qualification period (three or four years membership rather than two) and an “activity test” before party members could vote, as well as “grandfathering” electorates with sitting members to the current preselection system.</p>
<p>In an email this week to party members Walter Villatora, president of the Warringah FEC, and Jim Molan, the retired major-general who helped devise the Coalition’s border security policy, denounced the compromise positions as “window dressing”.</p>
<p>“The Hawke/Leeser reforms will cement in factional domination for another generation,” they said.</p>
<p>The Warringah supporters are arguing an all-or-nothing line. That leaves Abbott in a corner if there is a compromise, making it harder for him to claim any ownership of more limited change. Not that he worries too much about the odd contradiction, as we’ve often seen.</p>
<p>If he fails to get what he wants and seriously kicks up the dust, that is likely to encourage some disgruntled members to pay their A$25 to Bernardi – who incidentally is holding a meeting for his party’s NSW members next Friday.</p>
<p>On the other hand, if the Warringhites have a victory, Turnbull will suffer yet another bout of bad publicity, with more trouble to come from a much-emboldened Abbott.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/81355/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even if Malcolm Turnbull brought Tony Abbott into cabinet, which he won’t, it would likely eventually end in tears.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/766932017-04-27T20:06:06Z2017-04-27T20:06:06ZMerged minor parties chase votes on the right as identity crisis grips Coalition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166919/original/file-20170427-1843-1ujl1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cory Bernardi's Australian Conservatives party has amalgamated with Family First, which shares similar social conservative values.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cory Bernardi entered a new phase of his political career by <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/family-first-takeover-cory-bernardi-looks-for-more-mergers-after-great-day-for-conservatives-20170426-gvstv2.html">announcing this week</a> that his nascent Australian Conservatives party was to merge with Family First.</p>
<p>The merger makes sense. Both parties advance a socially conservative agenda; both have origins in South Australia. And the merger is a savvy response to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/senate-voting-changes-pass-so-how-do-we-elect-the-upper-house-now-55641">changes to the Senate voting system</a> that were introduced in 2016.</p>
<h2>Benefits of minor parties merging</h2>
<p>The changes to the Senate voting system abolished the group voting ticket. So, parties can no longer <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/09/the-preference-deals-behind-the-strange-election-of-ricky-muir-and-wayne-dropulich-.html">make the same preference deals</a> they had in the past. </p>
<p>Merging, however, will provide like-minded minor parties with benefits.</p>
<p>First, they will be able to consolidate their human and financial resources for election campaigns and the party’s day-to-day operations.</p>
<p>Second, by merging into a “super” minor party, they maximise their chances of winning Senate representation: they pool their electoral support.</p>
<p>This sense of electoral fragmentation has been a greater problem for minor parties on the right of the political spectrum. The Greens, after decades of evolution, appear to have consolidated their role as the lightning rod for voters from the left who are unhappy with the choices provided by the major parties.</p>
<p>No such party, however, exists on the right, where myriad minor parties with competing agendas are clamouring for attention.</p>
<h2>Social conservatism</h2>
<p>The Australian Conservatives and Family First shared similar policies on a range of issues. In particular, they opposed same-sex marriage and abortion, and expressed deep suspicion about the role humans have played in climate change.</p>
<p>Both parties also sought to advance “traditional” family values and have been sceptical of the socially progressive policies promoted by the likes of the Greens.</p>
<p>But their opposition to same-sex marriage contrasts with others on the right of political spectrum – such as <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/new-senator-david-leyonhjelm-says-samesex-marriage-is-a-liberty-issue/news-story/3153dbcbb7b2fbd61958ca72e8a35c9f">Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm</a>, who supports it.</p>
<p>In 2016, Family First <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/senate/#snational">won a national primary vote</a> in the Senate of 1.38%. Its best performance was in South Australia, where Bob Day – who is to be <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-05/lucy-gichuhi-to-relace-bob-day-in-senate/8417598">replaced in the Senate by Lucy Gichuhi</a> – won a seat after polling 2.87% of the statewide primary vote. Gichuhi, however, will <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-26/cory-bernardi-unwilling-to-wait-for-gicuchi-for-amalgamation/8472754">sit as an independent</a> – not as an Australian Conservatives senator.</p>
<h2>Race and immigration</h2>
<p>Pauline Hanson’s One Nation <a href="https://theconversation.com/defiant-hanson-will-test-a-coalition-government-61985">made a remarkable return</a> to the Senate in 2016, almost 20 years after it first emerged. Reflecting an approach common to right-populist parties in other liberal democracies, One Nation was deeply concerned about race, migration and religion.</p>
<p>Led by the charismatic Hanson, the party sought to advance the interests of “ordinary” Australians in a political system that it believed was over-run by professional politicians and political elites.</p>
<p>At the 2016 election, One Nation won a national primary vote in the Senate of 4.29%. Its best performance was in Queensland, where 9.2% of the statewide vote garnered it two Senate seats. It holds four seats in the Senate.</p>
<h2>Libertarian</h2>
<p>In 2013, Leyonhjelm led the Liberal Democrats to an unexpected triumph when he won the party’s first seat in the Senate. Since then, he has built a high public profile by advancing his party’s agenda, which focuses on individual liberties and freedoms.</p>
<p>The Liberal Democrats advance free trade, freedom of choice, and winding back the welfare state. The party supports euthanasia, the use of cannabis, and same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>It is also <a href="https://ldp.org.au/policy/">in favour</a> of citizens having the right to own firearms as well as ending prosecutions for victimless crimes, which it describes as illegal but not threatening the rights of anyone else. These <a href="https://ldp.org.au/policy/victimless-crimes/">include “crimes”</a> such as abortion, public nudity and the consumption of pornography.</p>
<p>However, Leyonhjelm differs from One Nation’s positions on some economic issues. For example, he supports cuts to <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/industrial-relations/pauline-hanson-backflips-on-weekend-penalty-rates/news-story/b9ed205701fb26d7ef8db01cc1ea8e12">weekend penalty rates</a> and the <a href="http://davidleyonhjelm.com.au/is-pauline-hanson-a-communist/">privatisation of state assets</a> – in contrast to One Nation’s opposition to both of these measures.</p>
<p>In 2016, the Liberal Democrats won 2.17% of the national vote in the Senate. Leyonhjelm held onto his seat after winning 3.1% of the statewide vote in New South Wales.</p>
<h2>Liberal-National Coalition</h2>
<p>While the minor parties mentioned above are advancing specific policy agendas, the major right-of-centre force appears to be grappling with internal divisions about the direction of its policies.</p>
<p>The belief that One Nation, Family First and the Liberal Democrats are chipping support off the Coalition has prompted some MPs to agitate for the party to promote more <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/good-weekend/leader-of-the-oppositionwhy-its-time-to-take-george-christensen-seriously-20161130-gt1cu0.html">socially conservative policies</a>. Former prime minister <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-fivepoint-plan-for-the-winnable-next-election-will-infuriate-malcolm-turnbull-20170223-gujkft.html">Tony Abbott</a> has continued to advocate for the Liberal Party to shift to the right.</p>
<p>As a major right-of-centre force, however, the Liberal Party risks alienating socially progressive voters who have supported the party in the past. And the sense of a growing threat from minor parties on the right may be overstated. </p>
<p>As the electoral performances demonstrate, these minor parties were successful in 2016 thanks primarily to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/so-how-did-the-new-senate-voting-rules-work-in-practice-63307">double-dissolution election</a> making it easier to win seats in the Senate. These parties would struggle to have as much success under the new electoral system at an ordinary half-Senate election.</p>
<p>Notwithstanding these elements, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s recent announcements of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-20/migrants-to-face-tougher-tests-for-australian-citizenship/8456392">changes to citizenship laws</a> suggest the Coalition leadership is responding to demands of the right from within the partyroom. Whether these will be enough to placate those seeking greater shifts to the right remains to be seen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76693/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While minor right-wing parties are advancing specific policy agendas, Australia’s major right-of-centre force appears to be grappling with internal divisions about its policy direction.Zareh Ghazarian, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/726502017-02-08T02:07:21Z2017-02-08T02:07:21ZPolitics podcast: Cory Bernardi on why he spurned the Liberals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155982/original/image-20170208-11433-1exlj4h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pat Hutchens/TC</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A day after moving to the crossbench, Cory Bernardi is feeling the heat. The media, former Liberal colleagues and South Australian voters all have a view on his defection, especially coming only months after he was re-elected under his then party’s banner. </p>
<p>“People will say what they’re going to say. And I’ve tried to be consistent. I’ve been accused of many things in my time in politics but I’ve looked to be consistent and principled in my approach to policy areas. </p>
<p>"Strangely, many of the people calling me an opportunist are the ones that exploit, you know, a momentary weakness to grasp power or influence, or promotion for themselves,” Bernardi says.</p>
<p>A lot of the people who look favourably on his decision: “are disillusioned Liberal Party sympathisers that said ‘I couldn’t bring myself to vote for the Liberal Party at the last election’ or ‘I wasn’t intending to vote for them but at least now I can give you my vote knowing that our values will be upheld’.”</p>
<p>As interest focuses on whether billionaire businesswoman Gina Rinehart will donate to the Australian Conservatives, Bernardi leaves the door open.</p>
<p>“Gina’s a pal and I never ask my pals for money directly. If people want to offer support or resources to what I’m doing then I wait for them to raise it. And there’s a reason for that. It’s because, you know, friendship is valuable and I’m not prepared to put people in an uncomfortable position if that’s not what they want to do.”</p>
<p>“It’s an enduring friendship. I have great admiration for her [Rinehart]. You know, she’s a very private person and I like my private life to remain private too and we’re friends,” he says. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Music credit: “Albiero A”, by Dlay on the Free Music Archive</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A day after moving to the crossbench, Cory Bernardi is feeling the heat. The media, former Liberal colleagues and South Australian voters all have a view on his defection.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/725812017-02-07T23:21:59Z2017-02-07T23:21:59ZBernardi should have resigned his Senate seat: here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155979/original/image-20170207-14532-suj32v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cory Bernardi speaks to the media after announcing he had quit the Liberal Party.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Senator Cory Bernardi’s decision to <a href="https://theconversation.com/bernardi-says-his-new-party-will-offer-a-principled-alternative-for-disillusioned-conservative-voters-72582">quit the Liberal Party</a> comes as no surprise to most political observers. For quite some time, and certainly since Malcolm Turnbull’s elevation to the Liberal leadership, Bernardi’s resignation from the party was always a distinct possibility.</p>
<p>However, his decision to quit the party without resigning from the Senate has sparked (the inevitable) condemnation from his former party colleagues. While he might well be feeling “reluctant and relieved”, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-barnaby-joyce-slam-cory-bernardi-betrayal-20170206-gu6we5.html">many Coalition MPs are savage about this decision</a>. </p>
<h2>The perils of ratting out the party</h2>
<p>Parties have little mercy for those in their ranks who quit the party but continue to occupy their seat in parliament. Such persons are often decried as “deserters” or “rats”. </p>
<p>In this case, the displeasure with Bernardi runs even deeper. From the Liberal Party’s perspective, it believed it had gone to some lengths to accommodate some of the senator’s policy concerns. Yet the efforts to appease Bernardi ultimately proved insufficient to prevent him from tendering his resignation only seven months after the federal election that granted him a six-year Senate term. </p>
<p>On a more practical level, Bernardi’s resignation makes an already complex Senate even more so for the Turnbull government. Once the vacancies triggered by <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/high-court-rules-disqualified-senator-rod-culleton-was-ineligible-for-election/news-story/d1900ac338ab7335381e3449309e164d">Rod Culleton</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-17/family-first-senator-bob-day-leaving-australian-senate/7938776">Bob Day</a> are filled, Bernardi will be among a 21-strong cross bench. The Turnbull government’s numbers have been reduced to 29 senators, 10 votes short of the 39 it needs to transact most business in the chamber.</p>
<p>High-profile, senior Liberal Party ministers, such as <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-barnaby-joyce-slam-cory-bernardi-betrayal-20170206-gu6we5.html">George Brandis and Christopher Pyne</a>, have argued that Bernardi should resign as senator to give rise to a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casual_vacancies_in_the_Australian_Parliament#Senate">casual vacancy</a>. This would enable the party to select a replacement senator.</p>
<p>The problem for the Liberals is that Bernardi does not believe he is under any particular obligation to do this. For Bernardi, the decision to resign from the Liberal Party is <a href="http://www.corybernardi.com/australian_conservatives_launched">a matter of principle</a>, and therefore justified and imperative.</p>
<p>In constitutional terms, Bernardi is not obliged to quit the Senate just because he has resigned from the Liberal Party. The party can do little to force his hand, except to hope that he might eventually fall foul of the Constitution’s various <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/Constitution">eligibility requirements</a> to serve in the federal parliament. This would be unlikely.</p>
<h2>Should Bernardi resign on ethical grounds?</h2>
<p>While there is no constitutional basis for Bernardi to resign from the chamber, there is a compelling ethical case for him to do so. </p>
<p>Before I outline my reasons, I must clarify the scope of my claim. First, the argument is not directed exclusively at Bernardi. This is an argument that should apply to any senator who quits his or her party, short of reasons of their party imploding, or being fired by the party. </p>
<p>Secondly, this argument is not one that I would extend to members of the House of Representatives who resign from their party. It is particular only to party defections when the member was elected in a seat through proportional representation.</p>
<p>My argument is essentially tied to two particular features of the Senate electoral system: the statewide basis of that system and group ticket voting. In combination, these elements greatly heighten the importance of the party label to the electoral success of major party candidates.</p>
<p>The statewide basis of the electoral system creates a geographical obstacle for all but a rarefied group of candidates to build a sufficiently strong personal mandate to secure a Senate quota. For this reason most independent candidates choose to contest lower house electorates rather than nominate for the Senate, where campaigning is conducted over a much wider, often more diverse electoral terrain.</p>
<p>Group ticket voting has further elevated the importance of the party label to the election of Senate candidates. Known colloquially as “above the line” voting, it allows parties to predetermine their preferred order of election of their candidates. While voters are permitted to vote for any candidate in any order that they wish, most do not. Only a very small proportion of voters cast their vote within the party list. </p>
<p>The combination of these features of the Senate electoral system means that most major party senators would struggle to make a convincing case that they were elected on the basis of personal appeal and support. </p>
<p>If we use Bernardi as the case in point, of the 345,767 votes cast for the South Australian Liberals at the 2016 election, he attracted just 2,043 of the first preference vote. Bernardi’s re-election had almost nothing to do with his personal vote and almost everything to do with the Liberal Party label and the favourable number two Senate spot that South Australian party officials awarded him on the party’s ticket.</p>
<p>Established parties can legitimately claim, therefore, that the single most decisive factor that accounts for the election of their senators is the power of the party label. For this reason, senators who quit their party under the current rules should feel compelled on ethical grounds to resign their vacancy, so that the democratic will of the party’s supporters is fulfilled.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While there is no constitutional basis for the former Liberal senator to resign from the chamber, there is a compelling ethical case for him to do so.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/724892017-02-07T03:09:10Z2017-02-07T03:09:10ZBernardi exits stage right: mayhem now, obscurity later<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155801/original/image-20170207-27214-mugpv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cory Bernardi leaves the Senate after quitting the Liberal Party.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Whether it be due to hubris, courage or vanity, South Australian senator Cory Bernardi has decided to forsake the Liberal Party under whose auspices his political career had been nourished. </p>
<p>He will instead seek to create his own political party, <a href="http://www.conservatives.org.au/">Australian Conservatives</a>. According to the conventions of Australian political science, Bernardi’s new party will be categorised as a “minor” party. This means it will be expected to win a minute share of the vote at the next election, that its only prospect for representational success will be in the Senate, and that it will be expected to last no longer than one turn of the Senate electoral cycle.</p>
<p>The current excitement surrounding Bernardi’s defection from the Liberal Party arises because of the deleterious impact it has on Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. It also adds to the complex situation in the Senate that is already under the influence of a diverse and often erratic crossbench.</p>
<p>This is a situation that could last for some time. Bernardi, who was the second-placed candidate on the South Australian Liberal ticket in the 2016 double-dissolution election, is what the Constitution defines as a “first-class” senator, and thus entitled to a six-year term. </p>
<p>Even though he was elected as a Liberal candidate, Bernardi is under no constitutional obligation to relinquish his seat, so he will now doubtlessly start work on forming his new party. Somewhat ironically, he will be doing that under <a href="https://theconversation.com/so-how-did-the-new-senate-voting-rules-work-in-practice-63307">elections laws recently changed</a> by the Turnbull government designed to make it harder for new parties to be formed, and restricting their ability to trade preferences with each other in future Senate contests. </p>
<p>If Bernardi does succeed in finding the requisite number of at least 500 bona-fide financial members in each state, and is able to put a national party organisation together, he will find himself in a crowded field.</p>
<p>Much has been made of the extent to which voters have been aligning their support away from the major political parties as a sign of drift to the right in Australian politics. This is true. But right-of-centre politics in Australia is a lot more complicated than the opinion polls indicate. </p>
<p>Most significantly, the rise in the total vote for right-of-centre candidates in the 2013 and 2016 Senate contests occurred alongside an exponential increase in the number of political parties being created.</p>
<p>In 2010, there were 13 parties advocating socially conservative and/or economic nationalist and/or anti-climate change sentiments, and who cross-preferenced each other in the half-Senate election held that year. This collection of parties won a national Senate vote of 3.8%. </p>
<p>In 2013, the number of right-of-centre minor parties had grown to 34, and the vote had increased to 15.7%. In 2016 the number of parties fell to 33, but the total national Senate vote rose to 16.9%.</p>
<p>This national figure includes some major state variations. It does not, though, include the impact of Nick Xenophon in South Australia which, by the 2016 election, had become very significant. In both the 2013 and 2016 elections, only a handful of the many right-of-centre parties won a primary vote above 4% – at which a political party becomes entitled to receive public election funding.</p>
<p>These parties included the Palmer United Party in 2013 (which imploded soon after the election), the Liberal Democratic Party in New South Wales again in 2013 but not 2016. In the 2016 election, there was Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, the Jacqui Lambie Network, and the Derryn Hinch Justice Party. Everyone else polled 3.9% or less.</p>
<p>In other words, the right-of-centre minor party vote is very thinly spread across a large number of competitors. Bernardi’s party would just be another one of these minor players.</p>
<p>Presumably, South Australia would be the organisational focal point for any party Bernardi would seek to create. The problem with that, however, is that Bernardi’s fellow South Australian, Nick Xenophon, has something of a monopoly over voters disillusioned with the major parties in that state. </p>
<p>South Australia is also the home base for the Family First Party. Its vote might not be great, but it seems to do well out of preference flows and usually manages to secure a Senate position. It might be six years before it happens, but Bernardi himself will struggle to hold on to his Senate seat.</p>
<p>The 2013 and 2016 election data do sustain the claim that there has been a swing to the right in the Australian electorate. But they also show that this has caused by a proliferation of right-wing parties, the vast bulk of whom secure a very small share of the primary vote (somewhere around 1%, on average). </p>
<p>The dominant players in the phalanx of right-wing minor parties have been those with high profile leaders or candidates (such as Clive Palmer, Jacquie Lambie, Derryn Hinch and Pauline Hanson). Bernardi may hope that his infamy could match the profile of these leading lights of populist anti-establishment politics.</p>
<p>But the reality is that a new conservative minor party headed by Bernardi would simply be adding to a political arena already saturated with conservative, populist, nationalist, anti-immigration and anti-environmental parties. </p>
<p>Bernardi’s actions do have some short- to medium-term implications, especially for the operation of the parliament, and the standing of the Liberal Party and its current leader. But the prospect of him being an influence beyond his current Senate term is very remote indeed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72489/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Economou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives joins a crowded field battling for the relatively small right-of-centre vote.Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/725152017-02-06T09:03:47Z2017-02-06T09:03:47ZCory Bernardi leaving Liberal fold without parliamentary followers<p>When maverick Liberal National Party backbencher George Christensen opens his mouth it’s usually bad news for the government. But on Monday, his comments were a relief to it.</p>
<p>Christensen said he would not be following Liberal senator Cory Bernardi out of the government ranks. This is despite his “sympathy” for Bernardi.</p>
<p>“I’m loyal to Barnaby Joyce, I’m loyal to the National Party and the LNP, I have been a member of that party now for over two decades, and I’m loyal to the rank-and-file members who preselected me to be the candidate that got elected to come down here to Canberra.</p>
<p>"So … I’m here in the government, as long as the government holds true to the values of the people that put us there,” said the man who combines the position of Nationals’ whip with chief troublemaker. He urged that “we need to re-engage with our conservative base”.</p>
<p>Apart from anything else, the loss of Christensen would wipe out the government’s one-seat majority and make its management of the House of Representatives more difficult.</p>
<p>Conservative senator Eric Abetz was also quick to rule out jumping ship. “Whilst there is some speculation about the possibility of the formation of another conservative party I remain committed to the Liberal Party and its founding principles,” the former minister said in a statement.</p>
<p>Bernardi, who has kept a low profile for weeks and went into virtual hiding on Monday – although he put up stories on his website about his coming defection – will make the announcement on Tuesday.</p>
<p>His departure to the crossbench is not a surprise. He has been working up to it for a long time, ever since he set up his own conservative movement last year, although he often said he wanted to stay within the Liberal Party.</p>
<p>Colleagues on Monday noted pointedly that it was only last July that he was re-elected as a Liberal, for a six-year term. Treasurer Scott Morrison said: “At the last election he was elected as a Liberal senator by Liberal voters to support the Liberal Party in this parliament and be part of our team.”</p>
<p>Some will be glad to see the back of him. “It’s like having a baby – the sooner he’s out the better,” as one put it rather graphically.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Victorian Liberal Tim Wilson – whose views on same-sex marriage are totally at odds with those of Bernardi – tweeted:</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"828471524017332224"}"></div></p>
<p>Bernardi is not expected to take any parliamentarians with him – and probably has not expected to do so.</p>
<p>While obviously this reduces his potential power as a crossbencher, it is also in character with his lone-wolf personality, and the nature of what he is doing.</p>
<p>Bernardi is about setting himself up as an intellectual leader of conservatism in Australia. His is very much an ideological quest.</p>
<p>His exit is part of the fragmentation of the right, of which the re-rise of Pauline Hanson is the most spectacular manifestation. But while Bernardi has policy positions in common with Hanson, there are big differences between them in ideas and as political phenomena.</p>
<p>One Nation is populist and Hanson is pragmatic, with her hodge-podge party. She is protectionist and happy with big government when it suits her cause.</p>
<p>Bernardi is the economic rationalist and the policy purist, with stances that would be in line with those of the conservative think-tank the Institute of Public Affairs.</p>
<p>Hanson is on an electoral surge, that seems set to get a further boost in the Western Australian election in March.</p>
<p>The appeal of Bernardi’s new party, Australian Conservatives, to the electorate is likely to be quite limited. He is not a big name outside his home state of South Australia, where the “disgruntlement” vote is already tied up in the hands of Nick Xenophon, a populist and more centrist brand.</p>
<p>He’ll have appeal to some in the Coalition conservative base, but only a narrow band is likely to be attracted. One important (to say nothing of super wealthy) fan, incidentally, is Gina Rinehart.</p>
<p>ABC electoral analyst Antony Green predicts that Bernardi “is not going to have a significant electoral impact on the Coalition. The electoral problem for the Coalition is the re-emergence of the populist right in Pauline Hanson.”</p>
<p>But the big danger for the Turnbull government, apart from the appearance of disorder, is that Bernardi will turn up the volume of the hard ideological line coming from the right, including its commentators in the media, who will ensure he receives plenty of publicity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72515/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
When maverick Liberal National Party backbencher George Christensen opens his mouth it’s usually bad news for the government. But on Monday, his comments were a relief to it. Christensen said he would…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.