tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/australias-farming-future-5839/articlesAustralia's farming future – The Conversation2019-09-03T20:03:53Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1193982019-09-03T20:03:53Z2019-09-03T20:03:53ZVirtual fences and cattle: how new tech could allow effective, sustainable land sharing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290477/original/file-20190902-175710-1793e77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C57%2C5447%2C3579&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Technological tools could unlock a new system of resource sharing in agriculture which is ethical and productive. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change and the global population boom continue to put pressure on the agriculture industry. </p>
<p>However, new technologies could enable a fairer distribution of resources to help cattle farmers adapt to these challenges. Virtual fencing is an example of this and could allow a system of land sharing that delivers sustainability and productivity. </p>
<p>It involves the removal of fences across large tracts of land, creating opportunity for cattle with multiple owners to be run as a single herd. Cattle would follow available grass and land owners would be paid by cattle owners for the amount of time their animals spend grazing on the property.</p>
<p>Garret Hardin’s popular 1968 article in <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243.full">Science</a> titled “The Tragedy of the Commons” explores how economic imperatives inevitably led to the exploitation of shared resources such as land. Hardin provides an important reference point for critical thinking about the fair implementation of shared resource systems. </p>
<p>He uses livestock’s access to land as an example of how common resources can be exploited. This is what technologies such as virtual fencing aim to avoid. </p>
<h2>A common good</h2>
<p>The large scale deployment of sensors in devices now makes it possible to monitor an array of natural resources. <a href="https://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/white-paper-c11-741490.html#_Toc532256794">CISCO estimates</a> by 2022 there will be about 15 billion global <a href="https://m2mconnectivity.com.au/the-future-of-sensors-and-the-internet-of-things/">machine to machine</a> connections driving the uptake of the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jacobmorgan/2014/05/13/simple-explanation-internet-things-that-anyone-can-understand/#10c787b21d09">Internet of Things</a> (IoT). Virtual fencing is an example of a trusted IoT application, one which integrates sensors, digital connectivity, data processing and a user interface.</p>
<p>The “Tragedy of the Commons” was a tragedy based on trust, with the tragedy occurring as a result of individual short-term gain at the expense of shared long-term benefit. The IoT shines a light on individual resource use and could create a new paradigm in resource management. It creates a framework where sensors will facilitate transparent transactions, not only for agricultural systems but any resource where shared access is based on trust. </p>
<h2>New paths to graze</h2>
<p>Virtual fencing could be used to remotely muster and move cattle and direct them towards abundant feed. Collars fitted to cattle would allow us to track and manage herds, removing the need for fences. </p>
<p>Sensors on these collars would be combined with automated algorithms. These could use details of each animal’s behaviour to create alerts, such as warning sounds, and direct them across the landscape. Remote automated collars have the potential for the widespread removal of fences. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-australia-to-africa-fences-are-stopping-earths-great-animal-migrations-114586">From Australia to Africa, fences are stopping Earth's great animal migrations</a>
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<p>In extensive grazing systems typical of savanna environments, balancing grazing pressure occurs against a backdrop of feast, famine, drought and flood. Fences on grazing land currently prevent cattle from doing what wildebeest in the Serengeti do, which is move in large, densely packed herds following available food. </p>
<p>Fences can also indicate ownership and control. However, the emergence of digital maps and GPS tracking means markers of ownership may no longer be required. Instead, the combination of location tracking and electronic identification can trace cattle movement and ownership. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Agersens eShepherd is an example of the application of virtual fencing.</span></figcaption>
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<p>With virtual fencing cattle could also be remotely managed and separated by fenced-off watering points, where they would access drinking troughs along lanes with automated gates. Sensors at watering points would record the identification, weight and growth of individual cattle. This information can be linked to gates which automatically separate specific cattle that are ready for market. </p>
<p>Continuously monitoring and matching cattle numbers to feed resources could also enable farmers to either sell or move their cattle before impending drought. </p>
<p>The dawning of sensor based systems could greatly benefit cattle producers, and removing fences may create a new kind of sustainable resource sharing among them.</p>
<h2>Erecting the first fences</h2>
<p>In his 1968 article, Hardin uses the analogy of livestock farmers who have access to shared common land. The collective group decides how many animals each farmer can graze on the land. The long-term goal is to ensure the grazing resource is protected for all, but the individual farmer is best served by adding more of his own animals.</p>
<p>Similarly, the demise of commons can be seen in the <a href="http://www.thelandmagazine.org.uk/articles/short-history-enclosure-britain">history of agriculture</a>. Centuries ago, landlords in Europe recognised the importance of a good supply of food to keep people happy. Villagers had access to shared land where they could graze livestock and grow crops.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/guardian-dogs-fencing-and-fladry-protect-livestock-from-carnivores-103290">Guardian dogs, fencing, and 'fladry' protect livestock from carnivores</a>
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<p>The emergence of an economic framework saw the control of capital that accessed free labour (freedom to choose where to work), particularly with the growth of textiles. This resulted in landlords taking greater control of parcels of land that were fenced-off. Food increasingly had to be purchased, labour was managed through wages and fenced land resulted in further control of capital.</p>
<p>While the fence has become a symbol for the demise of the commons, a digitally-driven agenda may open opportunities for a commons that is moral and more productive for the cattle industry. </p>
<p>The emergence of technological solutions could sow the seeds for a new age of cattle grazing, leading us to a future with a not so tragic commons</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119398/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dave Swain receives funding from Meat and Livestock Australia. </span></em></p>Since the feudal ages, fences have become a symbol of separation and ownership. Now, sensors and technology allow for a system of pooling resources which is not only sustainable but also productive.Dave Swain, Professor of Agriculture, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/299882014-08-05T20:36:41Z2014-08-05T20:36:41ZTo grow agriculture in Australia, farmers need to think like miners<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55753/original/vvdy277f-1407210451.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C3%2C1004%2C665&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Right idea, wrong execution: the Ord River irrigation scheme needed better surrounding infrastructure.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3APump_station.jpg">isthatdave/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s perhaps fitting that mining magnate Andrew Forrest is in the vanguard of a move to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-01/twiggy-forrest-deal-aims-for-australia-to-be-chinas-food-/5642838">position Australia as a major food supplier to China</a>. Fitting, because if the plan is to work, Australian agriculture needs to take some tips from another successful exporter to Asia: the mining industry.</p>
<p>A substantial increase in food production will require major improvements in the efficiency of existing systems, plus the expansion of farming into new areas. That will mean spending <a href="http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/24/248677/ANZ_insight_3_Greener_Pastures.pdf">an estimated A$600 billion</a> to upgrade and add to the ageing network that currently supports Australian farming, in much the same way that the resources industry paves the way for its activities by building roads, rail, ports and even entire towns and cities.</p>
<p>Industry and federal and state governments want to increase Australia’s food production in order to contribute to the <a href="http://data.daff.gov.au/brs/data/warehouse/Outlook2012/fdi50d9abat001201203/Outlook2012FoodDemand2050.pdf">unprecedented global demand for food</a>, particularly in <a href="http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/9aat/2014/WhatChinaWants/AnalysisChinaFoodDemandTo2050_v.1.0.0.pdf">China</a>.</p>
<p>The renewed interest in agriculture is also partly due to the new free trade agreements with major importers of our food, including China, India, Japan, South Korea and the United States. </p>
<p>Many people, <a href="http://lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com/Policies/NorthernAustralia.pdf">including the federal government</a>, see northern Australia as having <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25870-australias-epic-scheme-to-farm-its-northern-wilds.html#.U9B1wU0U9LN">significant potential for food production</a>. In a <a href="http://northernaustralia.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/papers/green_paper.pdf">Green Paper</a> released earlier this year – and which is open for <a href="https://northernaustralia.dpmc.gov.au/">public comment until Friday 8 August</a> – the government pledged that: </p>
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<p>No longer will northern Australia be seen as the last frontier: it is, in fact, the next frontier.</p>
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<h2>A dose of realism</h2>
<p>Yet this enthusiasm needs to be balanced with careful consideration of the scale of investment in infrastructure needed for agriculture. Indeed, recent agricultural assessments in northern Australia have highlighted the lack of transport and other infrastructure in areas that are being considered for food production, such as the <a href="http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Water-for-a-Healthy-Country-Flagship/Sustainable-Yields-Projects/FGARA-Flinders.aspx">Flinders</a> and <a href="http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Water-for-a-Healthy-Country-Flagship/Sustainable-Yields-Projects/FGARA-Gilbert.aspx">Gilbert</a> catchments.</p>
<p>It could be argued that the lack of supporting infrastructure is probably one of the main reasons why Western Australia’s <a href="http://www.dsd.wa.gov.au/8989.aspx">Ord River Scheme</a> has not been as successful as predicted, and past mistakes should be avoided.</p>
<p>The expansion of agriculture across northern Australia will be influenced by the availability of natural resources (soil, water) and capacity (people, communities). But any significant expansion will also depend on the infrastructure that is necessary for food production, transport, processing and marketing.</p>
<p>The movement of food in Australia relies heavily on road and rail networks, which are mainly concentrated in eastern, southeast, southern and southwest Australia. Transport networks largely radiate from capital cities, because urban areas are a major destination for food and also contain export facilities such as ports and airports. From cities, the transport networks penetrate into regional population centres and areas that have historically been major agricultural regions.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55760/original/65ds4p6m-1407217057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55760/original/65ds4p6m-1407217057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55760/original/65ds4p6m-1407217057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55760/original/65ds4p6m-1407217057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55760/original/65ds4p6m-1407217057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55760/original/65ds4p6m-1407217057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=688&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55760/original/65ds4p6m-1407217057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=688&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55760/original/65ds4p6m-1407217057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=688&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Major road and rail networks in Australia.</span>
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<p>Much of northern Australia lacks decent road and rail networks. Expanding agriculture will therefore require a large-scale investment in this infrastructure. And, crucially, this infrastructure needs to be in place before significant food production begins.</p>
<p>This is where agriculture could learn from the resources sector. Mining firms typically invest billions of dollars in infrastructure before digging anything out of the ground. The large up-front investment is justified by the relatively quick and substantial flow of money once the operation finally begins. Of course, it helps that large mining companies have ready access to money and credit.</p>
<h2>Putting the cart before the horse</h2>
<p>In contrast, it is not uncommon for agricultural production to start before infrastructure is in place, and for that infrastructure to be progressively added as production expands. But this model will not work for the magnitude, and predicted time-frame, of the increased food production envisaged across northern Australia. The government has a very important role in contributing to infrastructure development across northern Australia as part of nation building. </p>
<p>The agricultural industry must itself look at non-traditional sources of capital for infrastructure. Resource companies’ recent major investment in the northern beef industry is an interesting development, which illustrates the capital reserves of resource companies, their large investment potential, and their capacity to drive major transformations in how industries operate. </p>
<p>It’s the kind of thinking that northern Australia needs.</p>
<h2>The road to the north</h2>
<p>At the moment, northern Australia is not ready for large-scale agricultural expansion. Infrastructure is still concentrated around traditional areas of food production in other parts of the country. </p>
<p>Take beef, for example, where facilities for processing and marketing are mainly found in eastern, southeast, southern and southwest Australia. If beef production is to increase substantially in northern Australia, infrastructure will need to be a <a href="http://www.regional.gov.au/regional/ona/files/20121129-strategic-directions-for-northern-australia-beef-industry.pdf">priority consideration</a>. The <a href="http://www.theland.com.au/news/agriculture/cattle/beef/aaco-abattoir-set-for-spring-start/2693436.aspx">new beef abattoir</a> near Darwin is a rare example of new infrastructure driving production, rather than <a href="http://www.aacont.com.au">the reverse</a>.</p>
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<span class="caption">Beef industry infrastructure, including feedlots (red), abattoirs (black) and meat processing facilities (blue).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied</span></span>
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<p>Similarly, grain infrastructure (silos, export facilities) is found mainly near existing rail links. Expanding grain production into northwest Australia, partly in response to climate variability and change, would require major investment in storage and transport infrastructure.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55766/original/64vx3vtm-1407217690.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55766/original/64vx3vtm-1407217690.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55766/original/64vx3vtm-1407217690.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55766/original/64vx3vtm-1407217690.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55766/original/64vx3vtm-1407217690.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55766/original/64vx3vtm-1407217690.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55766/original/64vx3vtm-1407217690.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55766/original/64vx3vtm-1407217690.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=683&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Wheat infrastructure, including grain silos (red) and export facilities (green).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied</span></span>
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<p>Dairy is a slightly different question, as the future could see the current pasture-based system give way to intensive, larger-scale production – a move that would need lots of new transport and processing infrastructure – or a broad retention of the existing system.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55767/original/pgkvvmyy-1407217773.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55767/original/pgkvvmyy-1407217773.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/55767/original/pgkvvmyy-1407217773.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55767/original/pgkvvmyy-1407217773.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55767/original/pgkvvmyy-1407217773.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55767/original/pgkvvmyy-1407217773.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=684&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55767/original/pgkvvmyy-1407217773.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=684&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/55767/original/pgkvvmyy-1407217773.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=684&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Major dairy procesing facilities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied</span></span>
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<h2>Can Australia capitalise?</h2>
<p>If Australia is going to benefit from booming global food demand, perhaps we need to focus more on investment, rather than other issues such as free trade agreements and land sovereignty. Trade deals are important, but we need to make sure we can actually deliver the goods.</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/24/248677/ANZ_insight_3_Greener_Pastures.pdf">an analysis by ANZ</a>, Australia needs to plough A$600 billion into agriculture by 2050 if it is to realise the opportunity from the global increase in demand for food. Much of that investment will need to be in infrastructure, rather than production.</p>
<p>Without this funding, Australia’s ageing road, rail and ports will come under increased pressure, while whole new systems will need to be constructed if the north is to join other parts of the country as a major farming area.</p>
<p>That’s why farming should take its cue from the mining industry, where billions of dollars are routinely invested up-front for projects that typically last for 15-20 years. If managed correctly, agriculture lasts much longer than that, potentially creating opportunities for rural and regional communities that will last for generations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29988/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael D’Occhio receives funding from Meat and Livestock Australia and has confidential funding agreements with three veterinary pharmaceutical companies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beverley Henry, Chris Taylor, Luciano Gonzalez, and Robyn Alders do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s perhaps fitting that mining magnate Andrew Forrest is in the vanguard of a move to position Australia as a major food supplier to China. Fitting, because if the plan is to work, Australian agriculture…Michael D’Occhio, Nancy Roma Paech Chair in Range Science, University of SydneyBeverley Henry, Associate Professor, Livestock and the Environment, University of SydneyChris Taylor, Research Fellow, Global Change Institute, The University of QueenslandLuciano Gonzalez, Associate Professor, Livestock in Future Landscapes, University of SydneyRobyn Alders, Principal Research Fellow and Associate Professor - food security, international agricultural research, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/274502014-06-03T20:27:47Z2014-06-03T20:27:47ZThe latest Murray-Darling plan could leave farmers high and dry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50076/original/bp427dvb-1401770309.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Spending on water-saving infrastructure could expose Murray-Darling farmers to debt and drought. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/maigraith242/3453967236">Michelle Bartsch/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government’s approach for <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/resource/water-recovery-strategy-murray-darling-basin">the Murray-Darling Basin Plan</a> has shifted again, and now favours water-saving infrastructure over purchasing water rights. But is it the right move?</p>
<p>The new scheme proposes to cut the amount of water bought back from farmers by 200 billion litres — from 1,500 billion litres down to 1,300 billion litres. </p>
<p>By pledging instead to invest in infrastructure upgrades for irrigators, the government says it can bring the total amount of water saved to 3,200 billion litres.</p>
<p>But <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377413002710">our analysis</a> suggests this will expose farmers to debt and drought, while leaving the environment no better off. </p>
<h2>Changing tactics</h2>
<p>This type of shift is not new; the emphasis between the two main strategies has see-sawed several times. From 2004 to 2007, infrastructure investment was preferred to buy-backs under the <a href="http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/environmentalwater/tlm.htm">Living Murray</a> project. Then in 2007, at the height of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_Australian_drought">Millennium Drought</a>, buy-backs returned to prominence. With the new decade came the end of the drought, and now this latest rethink has seen buy-backs fall from favour.</p>
<h2>Buy-backs work</h2>
<p>Between 2008 and 2012, the Murray-Darling buy-back scheme (known as <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/topics/water/rural-water/restoring-balance-murray-darling-basin">Restoring the Balance</a>) purchased around 1,700 billion litres of water rights that will probably return around 1,300 billion litres to the river (the difference being due to <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/topics/water/commonwealth-environmental-water-office/about-commonwealth-environmental-water/how-much">variability in water supply</a>). </p>
<p>Buy-backs also had another effect: they gave farmers the chance to sell their water as a way to tackle debt, which <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1759-3441.12038/abstract">many chose to do</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, infrastructure upgrades originally introduced by the Labor government were financed by a system of tax breaks and subsidies called the <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/General/New-legislation/In-detail/Direct-taxes/Income-tax-for-businesses/Sustainable-rural-water-use-and-infrastructure-program">Sustainable rural water use and infrastructure program</a>. It is expected that this process will now continue with the aim of recovering the outstanding 1,900 billion litres to achieve the Basin Plan’s objectives, with a renewed emphasis on tax breaks and subsidies to do the heavy lifting. But our analysis suggests that it won’t be quite so simple. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50091/original/d9vmwtdw-1401779736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50091/original/d9vmwtdw-1401779736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/50091/original/d9vmwtdw-1401779736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50091/original/d9vmwtdw-1401779736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50091/original/d9vmwtdw-1401779736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50091/original/d9vmwtdw-1401779736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50091/original/d9vmwtdw-1401779736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/50091/original/d9vmwtdw-1401779736.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tax breaks may not be the smartest way to keep the Murray and Darling rivers flowing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AWentworth_Murray_darling.jpg">Peterdownunder/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Water efficiency can backfire</h2>
<p>Last year, we published an <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377413002710">analysis</a> which highlighted two possible drawbacks with the idea of giving government funds to farmers to improve irrigation efficiency.</p>
<p>First, capital investments (which are obviously less flexible than water trading) can encourage inflexible farming systems that could be caught out by future water scarcity.</p>
<p>Second, increasing irrigation efficiency could actually reduce the amount of water that flows back into the river, because more of it stays on the farm. </p>
<p>The logic behind this is quite simple. Imagine a farm with old technology using 10 million litres of water for irrigation. Because of inefficiencies, 2 million litres of water might flow back to the river, without being accounted for in official figures. </p>
<p>Imagine the farm then gets a subsidy to invest in upgraded equipment that can grow the same crop with 8 million litres of water, with just 5% runoff instead of 20%.</p>
<p>Under the policy, the government and the farmer will share the savings – a million litres of water each. Our farmer, logically, will reinvest that million litres in the farm and increase production, while the government will release its million litres back into the river. </p>
<p>But the environment loses. Instead of getting 2 million litres, the river now gets just 1.45 million litres: a million from the government and 0.45 million litres in farm runoff (5% of the farmer’s 9 million litre total). </p>
<p>So the more water-efficient we become, the less water goes back to the river. Logically, as the program evolves these two issues will become exposed and subsequent arrangements may alter either the efficiency dividend, the tax breaks, the subsidy level, revise the environmental goals downwards, or necessitate the reviving of strategic water purchases to restore the balance. </p>
<h2>Increasing costs</h2>
<p>Another <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837713001762">study</a>, led by Adam Loch, compared spending on buy-backs and water-saving infrastructure. </p>
<p>The average cost of buy-backs was A$1,527 per million litres during 2004-12, increasing modestly to A$1,600 per million litres during the survey’s later years (2009-12). Meanwhile, the costs of infrastructure increased from A$3,300 per million litres to A$5,109 over the same time-frame.</p>
<p>What’s more, water-saving infrastructure suffers from diminishing returns. Once the most inefficient systems are upgraded, the cost to recover each additional million litres increases as the “cheaper” options are eliminated. The result is that inefficient farmers are publicly rewarded for not innovating and failing to upgrade obsolete equipment. </p>
<p>This same study found that farmers support infrastructure funding, but much less than the proposed changes. Meanwhile, they support a much wider buy-back program than is currently being considered.</p>
<h2>Where does this leave farmers?</h2>
<p>First, the new infrastructure investment may require farmers to go into debt to finance upgrades, increasing their fixed costs. </p>
<p>Second, off-farm infrastructure upgrades will require higher maintenance and refurbishment contributions from farmers, as the reform stipulates that farmers must cover the true and full costs of providing water. </p>
<p>Third, calculating the water savings generated by infrastructure is an inexact science, as discussed. So the reliability of these savings may legitimately be called into question in the future. </p>
<p>If farmers equate infrastructure upgrades with greater reliability, and invest in (arguably less flexible) perennial production, they expose their capital to climate variability. When drought returns to the Basin (and it will), those farmers might have to go into yet more debt to buy water rights. </p>
<p>The next time water allocations aren’t enough for farmers, they will either have to enter the market when everyone else wants the water and prices are going up, or face the prospect of crop loss and increased debt burden. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the environment – the supposed beneficiary of all this – is left to fend for itself once more.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27450/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam James Loch receives funding from the Australian Research Council under DP140103946, and the National Water Commission.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Adamson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The federal government’s approach for the Murray-Darling Basin Plan has shifted again, and now favours water-saving infrastructure over purchasing water rights. But is it the right move? The new scheme…David Adamson, Senior Research Officer in Natural Resources, The University of QueenslandAdam James Loch, Early Career Development Fellow, UniSA Business School, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/149832013-06-06T20:42:25Z2013-06-06T20:42:25ZAustralia’s farming future: doing more with less water<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25119/original/6zs62dg4-1370481820.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Before the 1980s, farmers thought lack of water limited their yield. New crops and sowing methods are breaking yield barriers.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Middleton</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Changing climate, drought and urban expansion <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-farming-future-can-our-wheat-keep-feeding-the-world-14678">threaten the yield</a> of Australia’s wheat. But changes in cropping methods could address reduced water and lead to a jump in yield not seen since the late 1980s.</p>
<h2>A history of innovation</h2>
<p>The average yield of Australia’s dominant grain crop, wheat, changed little during the 1960s and 1970s. Then, from the mid-1980s to the turn of the century, three changes almost doubled the average wheat yield in south-eastern Australia. </p>
<p>The first of these was the idea of “water-limited yield potential”. A benchmark was set: a crop should produce about 20kg of grain per hectare for every millimetre of water that it used. This idea was rapidly embraced by the farming community for it provided an easily understood benchmark against which farmers could compare the performance of their crops. Average yields were less than half of that and there was much enthusiasm for finding out why.</p>
<p>The second change was canola’s introduction into the cropping system. Farmers soon noticed that the yield of wheat was substantially greater if it was grown after canola, rather than after other crops. The presence of canola roots in the soil greatly diminished the vigour of previously unrecognised root diseases. These root diseases had resulted in unreliable responses to nitrogen fertiliser, which farmers had therefore been loath to apply.</p>
<p>The third change was the increasingly rapid uptake of conservation farming techniques. Thanks to new and effective herbicides, tillage was no longer required to kill weeds. Farmers could sow crops without cultivating the soil, and this meant that sowing could be much more timely. It also left the soil much softer.</p>
<p>These three changes gave farmers a deeper practical insight (backed up by agronomic research) into what was limiting the yield of their wheat crops. This gave them the confidence to aim for higher yields by adding more fertiliser.</p>
<h2>Drought a setback, but early sowing stepped in</h2>
<p>This period of rapid growth came to an abrupt end during the millennium drought. Nevertheless, the farmers managed to maintain remarkably good yields during this time, except for two very tough years. How did they do it? By innovative management.</p>
<p>Farmers traditionally relied on autumn rainfall; thanks to the drought, there was much less of this. But there was more summer rainfall. Guided by agronomists, farmers conserved as much summer rain in the subsoil as they could. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25134/original/5mmh5gkb-1370494141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25134/original/5mmh5gkb-1370494141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25134/original/5mmh5gkb-1370494141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25134/original/5mmh5gkb-1370494141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25134/original/5mmh5gkb-1370494141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25134/original/5mmh5gkb-1370494141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25134/original/5mmh5gkb-1370494141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25134/original/5mmh5gkb-1370494141.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plants with longer coleoptiles - the tube that grows from the seed towards the surface - can be sown in deeper, moister soils.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Greg Rebetzke, CSIRO Plant Industry</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They did so by meticulously controlling weeds and by retaining the stubble of the previous year’s crop as surface mulch. Controlling the weeds also made sure nitrates - mineralised from soil organic matter during wet periods - stayed in the soil to benefit future crops.</p>
<p>So, when autumn came around farmers had a guaranteed supply of water in the subsoil. But there was still the problem of getting the wheat to germinate and reach the moist subsoil. Farmers were anxious that the sparse autumn rain would provide few opportunities to sow. </p>
<p>Many sowed into dry soil, which, thanks to abandoning frequent cultivation, was now soft. In this they were largely successful. </p>
<p>Early sowing requires wheat varieties that develop slowly, for they must not flower before about late September, after the risk of frost damage has largely abated. Fortunately such varieties were available.</p>
<h2>Making more use of less water</h2>
<p>The general success of early sowing may benefit farmers as much as the changes of the late 1980s. Farmers might now hope for a much higher water-limited potential yield than in the 1990s, thanks to the capture of summer rainfall (and released nitrate) for use by the following crops, the greater potential yield resulting from the longer period available for developing floral structures that produce grain, and the time available to develop deeper roots for capturing valuable water from deep in the subsoil during grain-filling. </p>
<p>If the crops can use more of the annual rainfall (not just that in the growing season), and get a greater grain yield per millimetre of that extra water, yield could <a href="http://www.grdc.com.au/Media-Centre/Ground-Cover-Supplements/GCS103/">go up by 25%</a>.</p>
<p>This prospect may be reinforced by new cultivars that will let farmers sow seeds much more deeply, deep enough for them to be sown directly into the moist subsoil. The problem with the current cultivars is their short coleoptiles. A coleoptile is the strong tube that emerges from a germinating grass seed and grows towards the soil surface while protecting the soft first leaf within it.</p>
<p>Coleoptiles of current wheat cultivars usually do not grow longer than about 5cm, so the seeds must be sown no deeper than this. New breeding lines have coleoptiles that can grow as long as 15cm.</p>
<p>Other options showing promise are dual purpose cultivars (they can be productively grazed during the winter as well as producing good grain yields); the use of “controlled traffic” so that any soil compaction is restricted to a small area because all machinery uses the same tracks; and precise GPS-guided sowing which lets crop seedlings get better established.</p>
<p>The near doubling of wheat yield during the late 1980s and 1990s was unpredicted, and perhaps unpredictable. But the omens are good for another period of substantial increases in wheat yield despite (and even because of) the recent volatility of weather patterns.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/14983/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Passioura does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Changing climate, drought and urban expansion threaten the yield of Australia’s wheat. But changes in cropping methods could address reduced water and lead to a jump in yield not seen since the late 1980s…John Passioura, Honorary Research Fellow, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/146782013-06-05T20:41:07Z2013-06-05T20:41:07ZAustralia’s farming future: can our wheat keep feeding the world?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25069/original/44ddc4kq-1370407636.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's getting harder to grow a lot of wheat.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephen Mitchell</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s status as a major wheat exporter means we have a special role in helping the rest of the world eat. But with a changing climate, and so much of the world’s wheat being used as animal feeds and for ethanol production, that role is going to become more difficult. </p>
<h2>Changing outlook</h2>
<p>Various projections for temperature, rainfall, drought and storms suggest that maintaining current grain yields will be difficult for Australia. In Western Australia, our biggest wheat growing state, WA Agriculture has predicted a 10% reduction in wheat yield. That reduction will be up to 30% in the most northern wheat growing areas. One of the greatest concerns is air temperatures rising above the optimum wheat growing <a href="http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/objtwr/imported_assets/content/lwe/cli/climatechangeandgrains.pdf">temperature of 23°C</a>. </p>
<p>We have fragile soil resources, and increased yields over the last 60 years have benefited from phosphorus and nitrogen fertilisers. The world’s phosphate fertilisers are produced from largely depleted guano and rock phosphate mines. How will agriculture adapt when readily available supplies may be <a href="https://theconversation.com/time-for-policy-action-on-global-phosphorus-security-5594">largely exhausted</a> over the next 50 to 100 years?</p>
<p>Seasonal conditions in the grain-growing regions are also critical to world supply and prices. The current Australian wheat crop looks bigger than the last, but is <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/big-dry-threatens-wheat-other-crops-20130430-2ir7b.html">well down</a> on the huge 2012 harvest. Luckily, it looks like a bumper harvest is coming from the <a href="http://www.fao.org/giews/english/shortnews/cpp09052013.pdf">Russian Federation</a>. But a poor season in one or two of the countries can have flow-on effects around the globe.</p>
<p>Beef is second to wheat as Australia’s biggest agricultural export commodity, but beef export is often wheat export in a different form, as demand for grain-fed beef grows. Feedlot cattle are now among the biggest users of grain in Australia; this young Australian industry now consumes about 3.7 millions of tonnes of grain. The feedlot industry strongly objects to the biofuel industry <a href="http://www.feedlots.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=frontpage&Itemid=84">receiving government support</a> and forcing up the price of grain. </p>
<h2>Why does the harvest over here matter over there?</h2>
<p>We no longer live where we grow our food. Most of us live in cities, and produce little of our food supply. At a larger scale, many countries do not produce enough of the basic food commodities to feed themselves. The problem is exacerbated by the world-wide exodus from country to city. Half of the world’s population now lives in cities, and in Australia the proportion is even higher. And global growth in urban settlements often consumes productive farmland. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25078/original/fsfzqkd7-1370409156.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25078/original/fsfzqkd7-1370409156.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25078/original/fsfzqkd7-1370409156.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25078/original/fsfzqkd7-1370409156.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25078/original/fsfzqkd7-1370409156.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25078/original/fsfzqkd7-1370409156.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25078/original/fsfzqkd7-1370409156.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Should we be grain-feeding beef?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neeta Lind</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most of the world population now relies on imports of basic food commodities, even if the import is within a country from the farm to the cities. Food supply in the modern urban world is now more dependent on infrastructure and complex transport and distribution networks. It also makes urban communities vulnerable to fluctuations in market supply and prices. </p>
<p>In wealthy communities, where such a small proportion of income is spent on basic food commodities, this may be a trivial concern. But for many desperate families in developing countries the weekly food bill can make the difference between survival and starvation. </p>
<h2>What should Australia do about this?</h2>
<p>In 2011, the Australian Prime Minister established the <a href="http://aciar.gov.au/aifsc/">Australian International Food Security Centre</a>. This group seeks to improve agricultural production and improve food security in vulnerable communities. World Vision Australia, a leading NGO, contributes with emergency food aid programs as well programs to lift food production. The Australian Government’s AusAid highlights “food security” as a <a href="http://www.ausaid.gov.au/aidissues/foodsecurity/Pages/home.aspx">key global issue</a>. It’s currently funding more than $400 million in aid programs. </p>
<p>We urgently need to prepare for the changing ways the world gets its food. Major food exporting countries such as Australia, the US, Canada, Russia and Brazil have a particularly important role in making sure the global poor can get enough to eat.</p>
<p>Research and development is needed to help the most food insecure communities feed themselves, and to help us feed others.</p>
<p>Our agricultural practices need to carefully respect the condition of Australia’s fragile water and soil: these are the natural resources that the fate of humanity rests upon. Food contamination from industrial pollution, poor waste management and misuse of agricultural chemicals will remain a major hazard, particularly as there is <a href="http://www.agric.wa.gov.au/OBJTWR/imported_assets/content/fcp/cer/wh/cp/bull4519.pdf">increasing mainstream demand</a> for chemical free organic wheat. </p>
<p>The rest of the world is relying on Australia. When we think about conserving water, protecting soil from salinity or productive farmland from urban growth, we aren’t just thinking about ourselves. We have a responsibility to preserve our agricultural productivity so the rest of the world can eat.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/14678/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian A. Wright does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s status as a major wheat exporter means we have a special role in helping the rest of the world eat. But with a changing climate, and so much of the world’s wheat being used as animal feeds…Ian A. Wright, Lecturer in Environmental Science, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/146882013-06-04T20:44:41Z2013-06-04T20:44:41ZAustralia’s farming future: Tasmania<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/24524/original/vvxcp54c-1369714539.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rising temperatures may have drastic impacts on the world's wine regions but Tasmania is using climate variability as a driver for innovation.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/santheo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wine grapes are a sensitive bunch. As Australia’s climate changes, the future of Australia’s viticulture will depend on the adaptability of its wine-growers. </p>
<p>Tasmania produces wine with unique, cool-climate characteristics. But Tasmania is also warming: temperatures are predicted to rise by <a href="http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/174850/12._Appendix_1.pdf">between 1.6°C and 2.9°C</a> by 2100. How can Tasmania’s viticulturists adapt?</p>
<h2>Not too cold, not too hot</h2>
<p>Wine-growing, or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viticulture">viticulture</a>, is particularly sensitive to temperature changes. A <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/apr/08/climate-change-wine-production">recent study</a> suggested that many of the world’s famous wine regions will be unsuitable for grapes by 2050. </p>
<p>On the Australian mainland, researchers are <a href="http://www.csiro.au/en/Outcomes/Climate/Adapting/Advancing-Vintages.aspx">already reporting</a> climate change impacts, including earlier <a href="http://winepeeps.com/2012/11/20/wine-word-of-the-week-bud-break-2/">bud burst</a>, ripening and harvesting. </p>
<p>While many of us struggle to envision the future effects of climate change, large commercial winemakers from the mainland are already securing fruit contracts and vineyards in Tasmania as a response to recent higher temperatures. </p>
<p>In Tasmania maximum and minimum temperatures will change. Rainfall patterns may change significantly from season to season and from region to region, with more rain expected on the coasts and less in central Tasmania. Rainfall intensity and associated flooding may increase, and there may be longer periods between rainfall. </p>
<p>All of this matters for grapes. 2100 may seem like the future that never comes, but winegrowers cherish old vines and demand a premium price for their quality. The 85-year-old vines that will produce an exceptional Tasmanian drop in 2100 need to be planted now.</p>
<h2>A wider palate</h2>
<p>Most Tasmanian farmers are approaching these changes with a glass-half-full attitude.</p>
<p>Tasmania’s diverse environment is highly likely to continue to support production of cool climate wines into the future, though the location of these vineyards may change. </p>
<p>More excitingly, Tasmanian producers will be able to offer a more diverse palate of grape varieties. Within decades, full-bodied Tasmanian Cabernet Sauvignons or Merlots are not out of the question, although the island will maintain its distinctiveness and fame for its outstanding Pinots.</p>
<p>While Tasmania might not be able to move viticulture further south to keep pace with the warming, some of the higher-altitude areas in the state do offer untapped areas for wine-growing. Pinot noir varieties, for example, may need to move to cooler areas at higher elevations. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/24525/original/gphb4t5p-1369715083.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/24525/original/gphb4t5p-1369715083.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24525/original/gphb4t5p-1369715083.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24525/original/gphb4t5p-1369715083.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24525/original/gphb4t5p-1369715083.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24525/original/gphb4t5p-1369715083.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/24525/original/gphb4t5p-1369715083.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Increased temperatures mean the state could soon offer grape varieties beyond its famous Pinots.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/stefano lubiana wines</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Let’s drink to that</h2>
<p>Tasmanian farmers credit their flexibility, diversity and resourcefulness for their ability to manage climate variability. Some say they have been adapting to climate change for decades. </p>
<p>Since the 1950s, Tasmanian farmers have experienced mean annual temperature rises of 0.1°C per decade. Daily minimum temperatures have increased more than daily maximum temperatures. Total annual rainfall has decreased, with the greatest reduction in autumn. Farmers’ take on the future depends on likely climate changes in their region and the opportunities or challenges this may bring. </p>
<p>What is a current management strategy for some farmers is seen as a future option for farmers working in different regions. Farmers might call on strategies such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>changing sowing/harvesting times for crops (earlier crops, earlier harvests)</li>
<li>changing stock management (earlier or later lambing) and stock agistment</li>
<li>planting fodder crops</li>
<li>planting new crop and pasture cultivars</li>
<li>introducing new machinery and technology</li>
<li>increasing diversity on the farm and changing crops to use perennial horticulture.</li>
</ul>
<p>While the culture of adaptability is well-established among the island’s farmers, access to cutting-edge research, innovation, education and resources is going to play an ever more critical role in their ability to manage change. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.tia.tas.edu.au/">Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture</a> at UTAS, in collaboration with the <a href="http://www.climatechange.tas.gov.au/">Tasmanian Government</a>, has developed the first seven in a series of <a href="http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/LBUN-8UR7E3?open">information sheets</a> from the data generated from the <a href="http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/174834/Adapting_to_climate_change_in_Tasmania.pdf">Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) project</a> to assist farmers, growers and graziers understand and respond to the projected impacts of climate change on agricultural production.</p>
<p>The climate futures reports provide information on the likely impacts of climate change in Tasmania on general climate, water and catchments, agriculture, and extreme events. They provide information for land managers on how to manage and take advantage of these impacts on a range of local agricultural enterprises.</p>
<p>Tasmania is not only facing up to the challenge of climate variability – but is using it as a driver for innovation. Tasmanian viticulturalists are already thinking about and assessing climate change adaptation options. And, adapting to constant change is certainly not a new concept for the island’s, and Australia’s, broader agricultural industry.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/14688/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peat Leith receives funding from the Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The information sheets mentioned in this article are a joint production of the Tasmanian Government
and the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture. Assoc. Prof. Mohammed received funding from the Tasmanian Climate Change Office to develop the Information Sheets and support from the Agricultural Policy Group Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment. The material in the information sheets was developed from Climate Futures for Tasmania and from the Tasmanian component of a national Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation project funded by the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry as part of Australia’s Farming Future’s Climate Change Research Program. Wine Tasmania provided input from the wine sector. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Barry receives funding from Horticulture Australia Limited.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holger Meinke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Wine grapes are a sensitive bunch. As Australia’s climate changes, the future of Australia’s viticulture will depend on the adaptability of its wine-growers. Tasmania produces wine with unique, cool-climate…Peat Leith, Convenor Science for Society and Policy, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of TasmaniaCaroline Mohammed, Senior Research Fellow & Program Convenor Future Farming, University of TasmaniaHolger Meinke, Director, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of TasmaniaKaren Barry, Lecturer, Plant Pathology, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/142162013-06-03T20:35:24Z2013-06-03T20:35:24ZAustralia’s farming future: Queensland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/24023/original/kjwhfnhn-1368772755.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Climate change is just another variable for Queensland farmers.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lock the Gate Alliance</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland farmers are used to dealing with variable seasons, but the long-term shifts of climate change are expected to create new challenges.</p>
<p>Queensland farmers already do a good job of managing a variable climate, and researchers have developed several <a href="http://www.apsim.info/Wiki/%28S%28j5aks555srp2ui55bhzs5o55%29%29/Other-Products.ashx">popular climate analysis tools</a>. Tools like the <a href="http://www.australianclimate.net.au/">CliMate App</a> - which lets users interrogate climate data and apply them to agriculture - <a href="http://www.climatekelpie.com.au/manage-climate/decision-support-tools-for-managing-climate">are popular</a> with growers, researchers and agribusinesses.</p>
<p>In Queensland our best farmers are already producing crops, fibre and meat operating very close to the maximum of the achievable productivity, under present technology. This means that the impact from expected changes in climate could still be significant in terms of reductions in profits and increases in risks e.g. profit variability from season to season.</p>
<h2>Which farms will do well?</h2>
<p>We recently simulated the impacts of a climate change scenario on the expected profits and risks of different types of farms in <a href="http://www.qaafi.uq.edu.au/content/Documents/2013/CPS/DR-Final%20report.pdf">Queensland</a>. </p>
<p>An irrigated farm business from <a href="https://maps.google.com.au/maps?q=Dalby,+Queensland&hl=en&ll=-27.186242,151.265259&spn=5.549253,6.904907&sll=-37.860283,145.079616&sspn=2.463308,3.452454&oq=dalby+&hnear=Dalby+Queensland&t=m&z=8">Dalby</a> was largely resilient to the impacts of this climate change scenario. Their capacity to irrigate crops gives the farmer from Dalby independence from in-season or season-to-season variation in rainfall. Though still, relatively small irrigated farms in the region are highly vulnerable to reductions in water allocations and increases in energy or labour costs. </p>
<p>A mixed cropping and grazing farm from <a href="https://maps.google.com.au/maps?q=roma,+Queensland&hl=en&ll=-26.608174,150.721436&spn=5.577682,6.904907&sll=-27.186242,151.265259&sspn=5.549253,6.904907&hnear=Roma+Queensland&t=m&z=8">Roma</a> had reduced profits and increased risks. Relatively larger mixed-cropping and grazing farms that grow pastures as well as grain crops are more resilient to changes in rainfall. This is because these farms have diversified their sources of income with activities that have different sensitivity to drought, e.g. grasses are less sensitive than grain crops to temporary water shortages.</p>
<p>Rain-fed cropping farms in <a href="https://maps.google.com.au/maps?q=Goondiwindi,+Queensland&hl=en&ll=-28.139816,151.679993&spn=2.751129,3.452454&sll=-26.608174,150.721436&sspn=5.577682,6.904907&oq=goondi,+Queensland&hnear=Goondiwindi+Queensland&t=m&z=9">Goondiwindi</a> and <a href="https://maps.google.com.au/maps?q=emerald,+Queensland&hl=en&ll=-23.548881,149.512939&spn=2.860032,3.452454&sll=-28.139816,151.679993&sspn=2.751129,3.452454&hnear=Emerald+Queensland&t=m&z=9">Emerald</a> had more significant reduction in farm profits and increases in risks. Medium sized farms that grow more drought-sensitive grain crops like maize, wheat and chickpeas have fewer or no income options during the poorer drier seasons.</p>
<p>Even though there is evidence that climate change is likely to impose important stresses on most natural and managed systems, these changes are likely to still be perceived and managed as another source of climate variability.</p>
<h2>Are we doing the right sort of research and development?</h2>
<p>Farmers, like all of us, make two types of decisions to cope with change: decisions about the more urgent and certain issues in day-to-day activities, and those that are driven by medium to long-term goals and a less certain future. But there is an added complication: in farm businesses, the outcome of any decision will be closely related to changes in climate patterns – the short term climate variability. This is the case now, and it will continue to be the case in 30 years time, regardless of the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, since Land and Water Australia was closed in 2009, funding for research and development to manage climate variability has significantly dwindled. </p>
<p>The Australia’s Farming Futures - a program that ran between 2010 and 2012 - provided funding to support farmers’ adaptation to climate change. But the present Carbon Farming and Carbon Farming Futures initiatives <a href="http://www.daff.gov.au/climatechange/carbonfarmingfutures/ftrg/round-2-project-list">mostly focus on</a> mitigating emissions and sequestering carbon in soils. As a result, the focus and effort of most research and development providers has rapidly tuned to the new music: mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration. </p>
<p>Considering that farmers best respond to “fast” variations (season to season changes in climate and/or market), and not to “slow” climate changes, the value of the information produced by these programs to support on-farm decision making is rather limited. This also shows how the focus of the funding for research and development can dramatically change direction every three years, driven by Federal policy agendas such as carbon pricing rather than by ideas’ merit in science, innovation or practical relevance.</p>
<p>Providing information on the costs and benefits of various options for adapting to possible future climate change is unlikely, by itself, to change how farmers strategically plan their businesses. Alternative strategies may consider supporting programs that better bridge farmers’ responses between “fast” and “slow” drivers of change.</p>
<h2>The information farmers need</h2>
<p>Of course there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/uncertainty-no-excuse-for-procrastinating-on-climate-change-14634">uncertainties</a> about the direction, intensity and timeframe of the expected changes in climate. Nonetheless, we still have to talk about how farming systems react to “fast” and “slow” acting stresses. We find that the best way to do that is through discussions with farmers about the benefits and trade-offs from alternative adaptation pathways.</p>
<p>Governments and researchers should be supporting farmers with relevant and actionable information. They need to know how to make the most of the opportunities of a highly variable climate; they need to know how to cope with reductions in the terms of trade and the increases in input and labour costs; and they need to know how to break through ceiling productivity gains. These issues should provide focus for research, development and extension investments. </p>
<p>Results from such research would leave farmers better prepared to deal with the less certain and more difficult future for agriculture. We think that these will be crucial elements in the design of more resilient and productive farming systems in Queensland and Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/14216/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Rodriguez receives funding from DAFF, GRDC, ACIAR, and CRDC.</span></em></p>Queensland farmers are used to dealing with variable seasons, but the long-term shifts of climate change are expected to create new challenges. Queensland farmers already do a good job of managing a variable…Daniel Rodriguez, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Plant Science, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/141502013-06-02T20:27:29Z2013-06-02T20:27:29ZAustralia’s farming future: Western Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/23695/original/xrcgqc47-1368499540.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New drought policy is designed to manage the risks climate change conditions pose to successful crop production in Western Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/Grevillea</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change, and its associated variability, is posing a challenge for farm businesses in Western Australia. The grainbelt has experienced a 20% decline in rainfall over the last several decades, more than any other <a href="http://climatecommission.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/4259-CC-WA-Key-Messages-4.2-Web.pdf">wheat-growing region in Australia</a>.</p>
<p>The magnitude of drying, especially since the mid-1970s, has been far greater than was projected in the late 1980s by the then best-available global climate models.</p>
<p>Since the 1970s most parts of WA’s south west are yet to experience an extremely wet year. The absence of wet years makes runoff into farm dams problematic and dries soil, making plant growth very dependent on growing season rainfall. Crop yields become more vulnerable to spring conditions.</p>
<p>If such drier, warmer conditions signify southern Australia’s future agricultural environment, then learning about how Western Australian farm businesses are responding to these conditions has relevance for other regions also projected to experience similar climate change.</p>
<h2>Resilience through productivity</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/broadacre-farmers-adapting-changing-climate">Recent research</a> published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) today (May 17) has tracked the financial performance of a diverse set of 249 farm businesses in Western Australia from 2002 to 2011. These 10 years were a challenging period, underpinned by a warming and drying trend in climate, large frosts and volatility in farm commodity prices.</p>
<p>In spite of the climate and price challenges they faced, almost two-thirds (64%) of the farms were classed as financially growing or strong businesses, generating average annual rates of return to farmers’ equity of at least 8%. However, 15% of the sample were classed as having potential financial risk, with their annual returns averaging only 6%.</p>
<p>The profitability of these farms was supported by their productivity growth, rather than rising commodity prices. Productivity gains allowed most farm businesses, especially crop and mixed enterprise farm businesses, to prosper.</p>
<p>The pathway to profits was mostly due to farmers improving their use of existing technologies, including technologies that offered economies from increasing the size of farm operations.</p>
<p>Farmers shifted into greater dependence on cropping, especially wheat production, and this proved to be a sensible and successful adaptation strategy in many parts of the Western Australian grainbelt. Decades of wheat breeding and agronomic research, coupled with modern machinery and herbicide technologies, have allowed wheat to be a widely adapted crop that adds to the resilience of farm businesses.</p>
<h2>Drought policy shifts to risk management</h2>
<p>Droughts imperil crop production and frequent or long-lasting droughts can cripple some farm businesses. If climate change does lead to natural environments less conducive to crop and pasture production, then government policy and action that facilitates adaptation by farmers and communities will be important. </p>
<p>Agriculture Minister Joe Ludwig <a href="http://www.maff.gov.au/media_office/transcripts/transcripts/national-drought-policy-reform">has said</a> there will be “no lines on maps” where only farmers in a drought-declared region would receive assistance while adjoining neighbours across the “drought” line would not qualify for aid.</p>
<p>In early May, federal, state and territory primary industries ministers signed a <a href="http://www.daff.gov.au/agriculture-food/drought/drought-program-reform">joint agreement</a> on drought policy reform. From July 2014 drought programs will focus on lifting farmers’ skills in risk management and business preparedness to respond to challenges like drought. </p>
<p>Elements of the program include:</p>
<ul>
<li>farm household support (payments based on need)</li>
<li>continued access to <a href="http://www.daff.gov.au/agriculture-food/drought/assistance/fmd">Farm Management Deposits</a> and taxation measures</li>
<li>a national approach to farm business training</li>
<li>a coordinated, collaborative approach to the provision of social support services</li>
<li>tools and technologies to help farmers make decisions. </li>
</ul>
<p>Western Australia conducted a <a href="http://www.daff.gov.au/agriculture-food/drought/drought-pilot">successful pilot</a> of these drought reform measures from July 2010 to June 2012.</p>
<p>These changes in drought policy mark a move away from providing subsidies for freight, fodder and finance. The shift in policy is towards a greater or maintained role in education, welfare and business skill enhancement.</p>
<p>Farmers scarred by natural events like drought may want more from their governments as they look enviously to their European and North American counterparts who receive generous government subsidies and support. However, the fiscal mood among state and federal governments in Australia is increasingly austere. This new policy that focuses on targeted spending to help farmers prepare for and better manage business risks is unlikely to dramatically change any time soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/14150/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ross Kingwell receives funding from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility; the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and; the Grains Research & Development Corporation. He is also chief economist in the Department of Agriculture & Food, Western Australia and is the economics leader in the Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre. He is also a past-president of the Australian Agricultural & Resource Economics Society.</span></em></p>Climate change, and its associated variability, is posing a challenge for farm businesses in Western Australia. The grainbelt has experienced a 20% decline in rainfall over the last several decades, more…Ross Kingwell, Professor , The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.