tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/baseball-13585/articlesBaseball – The Conversation2024-03-28T12:51:38Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263792024-03-28T12:51:38Z2024-03-28T12:51:38ZFor over a century, baseball’s scouts have been the backbone of America’s pastime – do they have a future?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584862/original/file-20240327-28-o25sx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=952%2C15%2C4129%2C2834&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Texas Rangers scout Brian Williams takes notes at Roberto Clemente Stadium in Carolina, Puerto Rico.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">H. James Gilmore and Tracy Halcomb</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former MLB executive <a href="https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/gillick-pat">Pat Gillick</a> won three World Series titles and served as general manager of four baseball teams from the 1970s to 2000s. </p>
<p>But when we interviewed him for our documentary “<a href="https://filmfreeway.com/FieldingDreamsACelebrationofBaseballScouts183">Fielding Dreams: A Celebration of Baseball Scouts</a>,” he deflected praise.</p>
<p>“I wouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame if it wasn’t for the people in scouting,” he said. “Those are the people that deserve all the credit, not me.”</p>
<p>Even though they scour the world for talent, often working on year-to-year contracts and spending weeks away from their families, there are no scouts in the <a href="https://baseballhall.org/">National Baseball Hall of Fame</a>.</p>
<p>Their recent run of tough luck has also gone largely unnoticed. The profession has been under siege on a number of fronts, whether it’s facing competition and dismissal from analytics advocates, or experiencing <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/09/04/red-sox-lay-off-nine-employees-from-scouting-player-development-staffs/">mass</a> <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/scouting-industry-endures-most-brutal-offseason-in-recent-memory/">layoffs</a> during the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<h2>A draft demands an army of evaluators</h2>
<p>In the first half of the 20th century, scouting was a free-for-all. </p>
<p>Team owners willing to spend the money could send scouts to go out and sign whomever they wanted, with contracts often written out by hand and players signing on the spot. When Iowa teen phenom Bob Feller was signed by Cleveland Indians scout <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/cy-slapnicka/">Cy Slapnicka</a> in 1935, Slapnicka simply took out a pen, wrote out a contract and had Feller and his father sign it, because Feller was underage.</p>
<p>The terms of the contract? <a href="https://case.edu/ech/articles/f/feller-robert">One dollar and an autographed ball</a>.</p>
<p>Major League Baseball <a href="https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-history-and-future-of-the-amateur-draft/">held its first draft in 1965</a>, in part to help level the playing field between wealthier teams, like the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals, and everybody else.</p>
<p>The advent of the draft made scouts all the more important: Each team now had <a href="https://www.baseball-almanac.com/draft/baseball-draft.php?yr=1965">a massive pool of players</a> to interview, evaluate and rank.</p>
<p>The draft only includes U.S. amateur players. International players are not subject to the draft, so some teams have built training facilities in countries like <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-promise-and-peril-of-the-dominican-baseball-pipeline-113242">the Dominican Republic</a> and <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-opens-new-academy-in-mexico-c215291168">Mexico</a>, where their international scouts find and sign promising young players. </p>
<h2>Strength in crunching the numbers?</h2>
<p>But since the turn of the century, some journalists and executives have questioned the value of scouts.</p>
<p>In 2003, author Michael Lewis published “<a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393324815">Moneyball</a>,” in which he documented the success of the 2002 Oakland Athletics and the team’s <a href="https://sabr.org/sabermetrics">embrace of sabermetrics</a>, the statistical analysis of baseball data.</p>
<p>The Athletics were consistently winning with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, and other team owners took notice. </p>
<p>Could data analytics exploit inefficiencies and produce better results than scouts? Could teams save money by trimming the ranks of old-school professionals and all of the human bias that they brought to evaluating talent?</p>
<p>The embrace of sabermetrics changed who got drafted. With raw data becoming increasingly important, college players – with a longer track record of statistics – became more attractive than high school athletes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Middle-aged man sitting on a metal bench with his legs crossed as he tugs on the brim of his baseball cap." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584559/original/file-20240326-16-7haf2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane ushered in an era that emphasized the use of analytics to evaluate talent and construct rosters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ATHLETICSSPRINGTRAINING/0fab9501d4e4da11af9f0014c2589dfb/photo?Query=billy%20beane&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=116&currentItemNo=5">AP Photo/Eric Risberg</a></span>
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<p>The shift to data-informed decision-making has had some unintended consequences. </p>
<p>In order for high school players to get recognized in today’s environment, <a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2022/05/19/catholic-youth-sports-little-league-club-baseball-243016">they turn to travel teams</a>, an expensive option that allows a player to participate in more games and accumulate more experience, more footage of their play and more exposure. </p>
<p>Players from lower-income families often can’t afford to participate – and that includes young Black athletes, <a href="https://www.povertycenter.columbia.edu/news-internal/2022/black-white-child-poverty-gap">who are disproportionately more likely to grow up in poverty</a>. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baseball-diversity-study-black-players-5d0d1766536f1385ee673c68be55d89a">A recent study</a> found that Black athletes represented just 6.2% of MLB players on 2023 opening day rosters, down from 18% in 1991. </p>
<p>As retired Black utility player <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collilo01.shtml">Lou Collier</a> told us: “A kid like me, today, never would have had an opportunity. … If I wasn’t able to afford any of these events, you never would have heard of Lou Collier. But back when I was coming up, the scouts found the Lou Colliers.” </p>
<h2>‘Moneyball’ or makeup?</h2>
<p>Scouts will also tell you that analytics is nothing new.</p>
<p>“We evaluated the player,” says former Atlanta Braves scouting director <a href="https://www.mlb.com/royals/team/front-office/roy-clark">Roy Clark</a>. “And when our scouts said, ‘We think this guy can play in the big leagues,’ the next thing we did is we gathered all the information we could – analytics. But then we emphasized makeup.”</p>
<p>It is a grasp of this concept – “makeup,” or a player’s character, drive and grit – that scouts say differentiates their work from data-driven evaluations.</p>
<p>“It comes down to the people who have a really good head on their shoulders,” says Matt O’Brien, a scout for the Toronto Blue Jays. </p>
<p>And the scouts will tell you that there is both on-field and off-field makeup. </p>
<p>“You’ve got to talk to his school counselor, you’ve got to talk to his coach, you’ve got to talk to his teammates, you’ve got to try and talk to other students,” explains Gillick. “Is he a good baseball player, and is he a good human being?” </p>
<p>This personalized approach, one that focuses on a player’s heart and mind, has kept scouting relevant. Even with the rise of analytics, the number of MLB scouts had stayed remarkably consistent into the 21st century. It seemed as if the fear generated by “Moneyball” was unfounded. </p>
<p>That all changed in 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Black and white photo of smiling man seated at a table. Behind him is another man standing next to a board with sheets of paper affixed to it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584514/original/file-20240326-18-7daslm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hall of Fame executive Pat Gillick during the 1983 MLB draft, when he served as vice president of baseball operations for the Toronto Blue Jays. Behind him is scout Bob Prentice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pat-gillick-right-blue-jays-vice-president-of-baseball-news-photo/502315001?adppopup=true">Jeff Goode/Toronto Star via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>The costs of COVID-19</h2>
<p>COVID-19 didn’t just shorten the 2020 baseball season, winnowing it down from 162 games to 60. It also shrank baseball’s scouting ranks. </p>
<p>USA Today reported that <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2021/03/11/baseball-scouts-return-covid-pandemic/4645174001/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycomsports-topstories">about 20% of scouts were laid off in 2020</a>. Many of them weren’t hired back. </p>
<p>“It was just the most uneasy feeling,” recalled MLB Scouting Bureau’s Christie Wood, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/29/sports/baseball/a-harder-look-at-female-scouts-shows-more-in-the-job-than-thought.html">one of the few female scouts in the game</a>.</p>
<p>According to the magazine Baseball America, by 2021 <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/scouting-industry-endures-most-brutal-offseason-in-recent-memory/">seven teams had reduced their scouting staff by double digits</a>. </p>
<p>The Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers cut 10 scouts apiece. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants had 13 fewer on their payrolls. The Chicago Cubs were down 20, while the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners each reduced their scouting ranks by 23. </p>
<p>At the beginning of the 2019 season, teams employed 1,909 scouts across their amateur, professional and international departments. By 2021, that number was down to 1,756. And most of the scouts that were laid off were older, more experienced scouts making higher salaries.</p>
<p>In June 2023, 17 former scouts <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/37893641/ex-scouts-file-age-discrimination-lawsuit-major-league-baseball">sued MLB for age discrimination</a>. They claimed that the league and its teams acted intentionally to prevent the employment of older scouts after the pandemic.</p>
<h2>A big win for the scouts</h2>
<p>The state of scouting today is a mixed bag.</p>
<p>Some teams seem to be prioritizing analytics. But other organizations – the Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers – have actually added scouts to their payrolls since 2019.</p>
<p>The Rangers organization opened their doors to our documentary crew over the past four years, allowing us into the inner sanctum. We were able to see, firsthand, the organization’s emphasis on scouting, and witness the relationships the team’s scouts built with prospects and their families.</p>
<p>When the Rangers won the World Series in 2023, baseball scouts around the league rejoiced: The team’s success confirmed that an emphasis on personal touch and people could still pay off. </p>
<p>“I’m just proud of all the scouts that are here and who have worked so hard,” Texas Rangers scout Demond Smith told us during one playoff game. “At the end of the day, it’s baseball. It’s Little League from the beginning, and then you are dreaming. And here we are.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Even with teams’ embrace of analytics, the number of scouts employed by MLB teams had stayed remarkably consistent. That all changed with the COVID-19 pandemic.H. James Gilmore, Visiting Filmmaker, Flagler CollegeTracy Halcomb, Professor of Communication, Flagler CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263762024-03-27T12:37:18Z2024-03-27T12:37:18Z‘The Amazon of Sports’ has already cornered baseball’s apparel market – and is now on the verge of subsuming baseball cards, too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584187/original/file-20240325-24-8sv22l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C7%2C5073%2C3638&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. sports card industry is an estimated $12 billion market.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/group-of-young-fans-hold-up-their-topps-baseball-cards-news-photo/830913124?adppopup=true">Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>During spring training, Major League Baseball’s official uniform supplier, Fanatics, became a focal point for all the wrong reasons. </p>
<p>After arriving in Florida and Arizona, players began to complain about the quality of their new, Fanatics-manufactured uniforms. </p>
<p>One player for the Baltimore Orioles <a href="https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-players-slam-new-mlb-jerseys-like-a-knockoff-jersey-from-tj-maxx-DEXUP34CLNFNNEW3AMES56G6U4/">groused that the new uniforms looked</a> “like a knockoff jersey from T.J. Maxx.” Others were dismayed to learn that the white pants were transparent, with seams from tucked-in jerseys – <a href="https://twitter.com/JRoc23/status/1760930264828563621">and sometimes more than just seams</a> – visible to all.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1760194062131281992"}"></div></p>
<p>The spring training uniform fiasco has led to more scrutiny for Fanatics, a company that had, until recently, been widely considered an American success story. CEO Michael Rubin, a college dropout, grew Fanatics from a ski and snowboard business into what some now call “<a href="https://theathletic.com/3998333/2022/12/14/michael-rubin-business-sportsperson/">the Amazon of Sports</a>.” </p>
<p>Thanks to its connections with the leading U.S. sports leagues, Fanatics has quickly become the dominant player in nearly every aspect of the sports licensing industry. It manufactures and sells everything from team hats and T-shirts to logo-adorned <a href="https://www.fanatics.com/nhl/new-york-rangers/auto-accessories/new-york-rangers-wincraft-chrome-colored-license-plate-frame/o-4628+t-47598504+d-64881168+f-9585632+z-9-3053713359?">license plate frames</a> and <a href="https://www.fanatics.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/lawn-and-garden/boston-red-sox-bird-house/o-3432+t-92334186+d-75002380+f-539183674+z-9-1600955566?">birdhouses</a>.</p>
<p>But uniforms are not the only aspect of Fanatics’ licensing strategy that has elicited controversy. Over the past few years, <a href="https://sportscollectorsdigest.com/news/fanatics-sports-card-rights-reaction-mlb-nba-nfl-hobby">Fanatics has undertaken an aggressive campaign</a> to acquire the exclusive rights to produce the officially licensed sports trading cards for not only MLB but also the NFL and NBA. In some cases, these deals are set to run for as long as 20 years.</p>
<p>As we explain <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4739580">in a forthcoming article</a> in the University of Illinois Law Review, Fanatics’ consolidation of the sports card industry threatens to reduce the company’s incentive to innovate or invest in trading cards, risking a stagnant future for the hobby.</p>
<h2>Pro sports get exclusive</h2>
<p>In order to produce apparel or memorabilia featuring official team logos, manufacturers must secure the legal right to use the teams’ trademarks, the intellectual property that legally protects teams’ names and emblems. </p>
<p>The companies will typically acquire these legal rights by entering into contracts, called <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/licensing-agreement.asp">licensing agreements</a>, with a particular sports league, giving the manufacturer the right to use all league and team logos on its products.</p>
<p>Historically, U.S. sports leagues have granted multiple companies these rights.</p>
<p>In recent years, however, leagues and manufacturers have tended to favor <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/exclusive_license">exclusive licenses</a> – agreements that ensure that only a single company will have the right to use the league’s trademarks on a particular type of product. EA Sports, for instance, has held the exclusive rights to produce NFL video games – via its Madden franchise – <a href="https://kotaku.com/remember-its-not-just-the-nfls-exclusive-license-with-5988357">for nearly 20 years</a>, giving it an effective monopoly over this product line.</p>
<p>After deciding to move into the sports trading card market, Fanatics used exclusive trademark licenses <a href="https://sportscollectorsdigest.com/news/fanatics-sports-card-rights-reaction-mlb-nba-nfl-hobby">to secure the sole rights to produce MLB, NFL and NBA cards</a> in 2021.</p>
<p>While some people may see baseball cards as mere child’s play, the U.S. sports card industry <a href="https://www.verifiedmarketresearch.com/product/sports-trading-card-market/">is estimated to be a US$12 billion market</a>. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, <a href="https://theathletic.com/3447519/2022/07/26/sports-card-baseball-market/">there’s been a surge in interest</a>. </p>
<p>Moving forward, Fanatics will have near monopoly control over a large chunk of that market.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young woman wearing sunglasses, an older man wearing sunglasses, and a middle-aged man." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584197/original/file-20240325-28-qao0hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584197/original/file-20240325-28-qao0hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584197/original/file-20240325-28-qao0hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584197/original/file-20240325-28-qao0hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584197/original/file-20240325-28-qao0hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584197/original/file-20240325-28-qao0hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584197/original/file-20240325-28-qao0hy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fanatics CEO Michael Rubin, right, embraces New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft at the 2019 Fanatics Super Bowl party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/2019FanaticsSuperBowlParty-Arrivals/5f67df95733e4014af8a9b8d5d97a2ce/photo?Query=michael%20rubin&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=62&currentItemNo=34">Paul R. Giunta/Invision/AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Trading card competition spurs innovation</h2>
<p>This won’t be the first time that the U.S. sports card hobby has fallen under the control of a single manufacturer. </p>
<p>Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, one of the companies recently displaced by Fanatics – the Topps Chewing Gum company – possessed largely unchallenged power over the industry.</p>
<p>Topps had acquired its monopoly in the mid-1950s after <a href="https://fanarch.com/blogs/sports-cards/is-bowman-owned-by-topps">buying out its former competitor</a>, Bowman, following a protracted legal battle. It then maintained the monopoly for decades by signing exclusive contracts with nearly every MLB player. These contracts gave Topps the sole rights to use images of the players on trading cards.</p>
<p>This lack of competition resulted in an era that featured little innovation – and, in the eyes of many collectors, uninspired offerings. Indeed, during this period, Topps would not only often rely on relatively unattractive card designs, but the company would also occasionally <a href="https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com/woulda-coulda-shoulda-vintage-baseball-team-photos-topps-left-out/">reuse the same player photos multiple years in a row</a>.</p>
<p>The Topps monopoly was ultimately broken up by a federal court <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2019/01/baseball-card-litigation-fleer-v-topps/">in a suit filed by would-be competitor Fleer</a> under the Sherman Antitrust Act, and this decision led to a variety of new brands entering the market. </p>
<p>In addition to Fleer, the 1980s would witness the launch of a flood of new card companies, including <a href="https://www.cardboardconnection.com/donruss-baseball-card-designs-years">Donruss</a>, <a href="https://www.baseball-almanac.com/baseball_cards/baseball_card_sets.php?m=Score">Score</a> and Upper Deck. The resulting competition pushed these companies, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Card_Sharks.html?id=J-_vAQAACAAJ">with Upper Deck leading the way</a>, to dramatically improve their product offerings, not only upgrading their card designs and photos, but also their printing technology and card stock.</p>
<p>Eventually, however, many card collectors became overwhelmed by the vast number of product offerings in the 1990s and early 2000s. Realizing that overproduction was dampening consumer interest, sports leagues began to grant exclusive licenses to individual card manufacturers to restrict the number of cards on the market. Topps, for instance, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/06/sports/baseball/06cards.html">regained its status</a> as the exclusive card manufacturer for MLB in 2009.</p>
<p>Until recently, however, different companies had held the exclusive rights to produce trading cards for the leading U.S. sports leagues, providing some degree of continued competition in the industry.</p>
<h2>Is Fanatics running afoul of antitrust law?</h2>
<p>Fanatics’ consolidation of the industry raises the specter that the hobby could once again witness the ills of monopolization in the coming years.</p>
<p>Perhaps unsurprisingly, Fanatics’ takeover of the sports card hobby <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/07/fanatics-panini-launch-legal-battle-with-a-pair-of-lawsuits.html">is currently being challenged in court by Panini</a>, another of the companies that Fanatics supplanted.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Yellow and sign reading 'PANINI' in front of manufacturing facilities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584186/original/file-20240325-18-1cecuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584186/original/file-20240325-18-1cecuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584186/original/file-20240325-18-1cecuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584186/original/file-20240325-18-1cecuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584186/original/file-20240325-18-1cecuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584186/original/file-20240325-18-1cecuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584186/original/file-20240325-18-1cecuh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Italian collectibles company Panini filed an antitrust lawsuit against Fanatics in 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-photo-taken-on-april-20-2018-shows-the-panini-group-news-photo/950673158?adppopup=true">Marco Bertorello/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The lawsuit alleges that Fanatics has violated the Sherman Antitrust Act by engaging in anti-competitive practices that have ousted Panini and other competitors from the industry. </p>
<p>In this sense, Fanatics’ re-monopolization of the U.S. sports trading card business exhibits additional parallels to the earlier Topps monopoly of the 1960s and 1970s.</p>
<p>Ultimately, Panini’s case merely underlies what may actually be bigger questions about Fanatics’ business practices in general. </p>
<p>Fanatics has used exclusive license agreements – similar to those that it has executed for sports cards – to help build its dominant position in the broader sports licensing marketplace. </p>
<p>Whether these exclusive licensing agreements are legal or not remains unresolved; the permissibility of similar exclusive trademark licenses under federal antitrust law was last raised in a 2010 case before the Supreme Court in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2009/08-661">American Needle, Inc. v. National Football League</a>. </p>
<p>In that case, a former manufacturer of NFL hats sued the NFL after the league decided to grant Reebok the exclusive rights to make its team-logoed hats beginning in 2002. American Needle alleged that the decision by 32 individually owned and operated NFL franchises to collectively license their trademarks to a single manufacturer ran afoul of <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/sherman_antitrust_act">the Sherman Antitrust Act</a>.</p>
<p>While the Supreme Court held that the NFL-Reebok deal was subject to scrutiny under antitrust law, the parties ultimately settled the case before the courts issued a final resolution regarding the legality of the NFL’s exclusive license.</p>
<p>While sports trading cards comprise a multibillion-dollar industry, they represent just a share of the larger, <a href="https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/licensed-sports-merchandise-market-report">$33 billion U.S. sports licensing market</a>. </p>
<p>See-through, cheap-looking baseball pants may or may not be a consequence of a lack of competition in this market.</p>
<p>But we think it’s only a matter of time before the depletion of competition for licensed sports apparel results in higher prices and less choice for fans. The same holds true for trading cards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226376/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fanatics’ consolidation of the sports card industry risks a stagnant future for the hobby.Nathaniel Grow, Associate Professor of Business Law and Ethics, Indiana UniversityJohn Holden, Associate Professor of Management, Oklahoma State UniversityMarc Edelman, Professor of Law, Baruch College, CUNYLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2262082024-03-19T23:53:14Z2024-03-19T23:53:14ZJoey Votto’s handwritten apology to baseball fans shows the pen is mightier than the bat<p>The importance of cursive handwriting is <a href="https://www.nea.org/nea-today/all-news-articles/great-cursive-writing-debate">a hot topic of debate</a> within the world of educators. Now, a popular athlete has inadvertently become a champion of those who believe in the power of handwritten letters.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml">Joey Votto is one of the best baseball players</a> to ever come from Canada. He has had an all-star career with the Cincinnati Reds for the last 17 years, but was <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/joey-votto-cincinatti-reds-declined-option-nov-4-1.7018860">without a job</a> heading into spring training this year.</p>
<p>Canadian baseball fans were overjoyed with the announcement earlier this month that Votto, a native of Toronto, had <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/joey-votto-officially-signed-by-blue-jays/">signed a minor-league contract</a> with the Toronto Blue Jays. </p>
<p>But the signing also caused some Canadian fans to <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/joey-votto-dont-care-almost-canadian-baseball/">remember remarks he made in 2018</a> when he said: “I don’t care almost at all about Canadian baseball.” </p>
<h2>Three-page letter</h2>
<p>Votto chose to address those six-year-old remarks in an unusual way: <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/blue-jays/blue-jays-joey-votto-posts-heartfelt-handwritten-apology-for-criticizing-canadian-baseball/article_4463f3c0-e591-11ee-ad18-d7512a7f7574.html#tncms-source=login">he posted a three-page handwritten letter</a> on X (formerly Twitter) to ask for forgiveness. </p>
<p>Fans’ comments about the letter focused on two things: most people appreciated the apology, but just as many were struck by the fact that Votto chose to make the apology in cursive handwriting. One commenter even said the letter was nice, but “no one under 30” will be able to read it — a reference to the fact that many students are no longer taught cursive writing.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1769878548502679973"}"></div></p>
<p>Within just 24 hours, the note received widespread attention from Canadian media as well as Votto’s enormous following on X/Twitter, garnering some 1.8 million views. </p>
<p>Votto’s reflections afford opportunities for personal understanding, growth and healing — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1192/apt.11.5.338">especially because they were handwritten</a>.</p>
<p>In retrospect, Votto acknowledged, his ill-thought comments were an embarrassment and a shame for him personally, and a disappointment to his mother. In the letter, Votto seeks to assuage the emotional burden by taking responsibility for his comments and asks forgiveness from those he thoughtlessly hurt.</p>
<p>“Oof, wow, I cringe and am ashamed as I re-write my words,” Votto wrote in the letter, referring to the original comments that got him into hot water.</p>
<h2>Handwriting makes it authentic</h2>
<p>The fact that Votto chose to write the letter in cursive makes the apology that much more authentic: had he typed it out, readers could have assumed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/12/style/notes-app-celebrity-statements.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share">that someone else or a computer program chose the words</a>.</p>
<p>But the handwritten note clearly shows Votto’s emotional commitment to the apology — including some grammatical errors that a computer would have corrected. (There’s been some speculation that Votto wrote the letter on a “<a href="https://remarkable.com/store/remarkable-2">paper tablet</a>,” but there’s no doubt it’s his writing.) </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-cursive-handwriting-needs-to-make-a-school-comeback-121645">Why cursive handwriting needs to make a school
comeback</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For those who take an interest in handwriting and its connection to making meaning on the page, it is noteworthy that Votto’s handwriting is fully cursive.</p>
<p>It shows many connections between letters and, secondly, it’s characterized by many twists, loops, backward turns — the type of script that was likely favoured in 40-year-old Votto’s young years in grade school in Toronto.</p>
<p>Though more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/19411243.2012.744651">cumbersome for many young learners</a>, such features of handwriting help to determine the authenticity of the writing: every hand has its unique musculature and grip, as well as style in making the ligatures or joins between letters, the loops and tails.</p>
<p>When compared to another sample of an author’s handwriting, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/forensic-experts-are-surprisingly-good-at-telling-whether-two-writing-samples-match/">the authenticity of cursive writing can be determined</a> — an important dimension for writing of historical importance.</p>
<h2>A personal connection to the words</h2>
<p>In Votto’s case, his handwritten letter shows sincerity of expression and a personal connection to the words. </p>
<p>The ability to show his true feelings is possible by developing a script that is fluent and automatic, thus making precious cognitive resources available for generating the intended message.</p>
<p>This means that handwriting must be over-learned and <a href="https://www.edubloxsa.co.za/automaticity-important-reading-learning">brought under unconscious control</a>. In establishing neuronal connections, fluid movement is possible that, in turn, permits access to <em>le mot juste</em>: the right word at the right time for the right purpose. </p>
<p>As a researcher who has advocated for the return of cursive handwriting to classroom teaching, I believe it’s important to note that handwriting creates the neurocircuitry to the brain for making meaning, storing, retrieving and remembering. This is known as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.156">embodied cognition</a>. </p>
<p>Our hands have a profound effect on how our <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/thinking-about-kids/201407/step-away-the-keyboard-how-our-hands-affect-our-brains">brain makes sense of the world and how we think</a>. Readings of student brains suggest writing by hand <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/writing-by-hand-may-increase-brain-connectivity-rcna135880">may increase brain connectivity more than typing</a>.</p>
<p>Handwriting affords a sense of agency and empowerment, as witnessed by the cursive writing of Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai’s note about how “one pen, one child, one teacher can change the world.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A letter in cursive writing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582963/original/file-20240319-16-7u7pgp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A handwritten note by Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Votto is on a Cinderella-like quest to finish his career with his hometown baseball team. Whether he makes it or not won’t likely be known for a few weeks.</p>
<p>But regardless of whether he ever plays for the Blue Jays, Canadian baseball fans have clearly appreciated that Votto took the time to write a three-page letter in his own hand to right a past wrong.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hetty Roessingh receives funding from SSHRC; Werklund School of Education, University of Calgary </span></em></p>The power of a handwritten letter became clear when baseball player Joey Votto penned an apology to Canadian fans. Votto also reopened the debate about whether kids should learn cursive writing.Hetty Roessingh, Professor, Werklund School of Education, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2195642023-12-11T22:48:10Z2023-12-11T22:48:10ZWhat the Blue Jays can learn from missing out on the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/what-the-blue-jays-can-learn-from-missing-out-on-the-shohei-ohtani-sweepstakes" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>This past weekend, Toronto Blue Jays fans experienced a roller coaster of emotions when it seemed like Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani was going to sign with Toronto, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10161849/blue-jays-fans-heartbroken-ohtani-signs-dodgers/">only to be heartbroken</a> after he signed a US$700 million, 10-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays wanted Ohtani for a number of reasons. Ohtani is a rare breed in baseball — not only is he one of the best pitchers in MLB, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/player/shohei-ohtani-660271">with an ERA of 3.14 in 2023</a>, but he’s also a prolific hitter. His unique skill set has <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/shohei-ohtani-babe-ruth-1.6921241">drawn comparisons with baseball legend Babe Ruth</a>.</p>
<p>His global fan base also translates into economic benefits for any team he plays for. According to a study by a Japanese economist, Ohtani’s broad economic impact in 2022 when he played for the Los Angeles Angels <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/how-much-revenue-does-shohei-ohtani-actually-generate.html">was around US$337 million</a>.</p>
<p>Now that the dust has settled, Blue Jays fans and analysts alike must reflect on the lessons learned from this situation. </p>
<h2>Don’t let price bulldoze other interests</h2>
<p>Blue Jays fans could be forgiven for thinking that when Blue Jays’ owner Rogers entered into meaningful negotiations with Ohtani it was just a matter of time. <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/as-ohtani-fallout-continues-clarity-on-blue-jays-final-offer-emerges/">According to a number of sources close to the negotiation</a>, the Blue Jays’ best offer was similar to the one offered by the Dodgers.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://hbr.org/2001/04/six-habits-of-merely-effective-negotiators">as Harvard Business School professor, James K. Sebenius argues</a>, a common error in negotiations is thinking that price is the most important, or only, issue to be resolved. </p>
<p>In the case of Ohtani, the US$700 million price tag was clearly a factor in his decision. But now it seems obvious that other interests, including club location and the competitiveness of the team were also important considerations.</p>
<h2>The best alternative to a negotiated agreement</h2>
<p>This may not be much consolation, but the Blue Jays were merely one of 29 losers in the Ohtani sweepstakes. Arguably, <a href="https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2023/12/11/los-angeles-angels-future-without-shohei-ohtani.aspx">the L.A. Angels organization and their fans</a>, having just lost Ohtani to the rival L.A. Dodgers are as — or, perhaps more — <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/angels/news/angels-fans-react-to-shohei-ohtani-signing-with-dodgers-ml0802">heartbroken this week</a> than the Jays are.</p>
<p>The lesson for the Angels fans is to understand <a href="https://www.pon.harvard.edu/shop/getting-to-yes-negotiating-agreement-without-giving-in/">the best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA) concept</a>. In short, the BATNA is whatever course of action either side of a negotiation will take in the event that no deal is reached between them.</p>
<p>For example, if you were to enter into a salary negotiation with your current employer with a job offer from a rival company in hand, your BATNA — in the event your salary negotiation is unsuccessful — is to take the rival company’s offer.</p>
<p>In the Ohtani sweepstakes, the <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/mlb/news/shohei-ohtani-trade-rumors-angels-two-way-star-playoffs/og9dbsoqbrgv5i5lj3ipcyud">L.A. Angels appear to have underestimated Ohtani’s BATNA</a>, perhaps believing their positive relationship, West Coast location and willingness to spend whatever it took to make the playoffs in 2023 would be enough.</p>
<h2>Interests versus positions</h2>
<p>The Toronto Blue Jays’ and L.A. Angels’ willingness to spend whatever it took didn’t matter. Not because the Dodgers were willing to spend more, but because whatever the compensation figure ultimately was, it would only be acceptable to Ohtani if it satisfied his interests.</p>
<p>It can be challenging to distinguish between interests and positions when so much money is involved in a signing such as this. In short, interests are the underlying motivations that inform positions, while positions are specific demands.</p>
<p>For example, you might ask for $100,000 at your next salary negotiation — that is a position (or, in other words, a specific demand). An example of an interest might be the flexibility the position affords, which may be more enticing than a job that doesn’t meet those interests.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays and L.A. Angels seem to have misinterpreted Ohtani’s interests and proceeded as if compensation would be enough. </p>
<p>In reality, it appears Ohtani’s interests (based on the contract and its deferred payment structure) were mostly based on sustained excellence and anticipated success over these next 10 years. Ohtani immediately bolsters an already competitive team and has offered the Dodgers an opportunity to become even more competitive by virtue of his deferred compensation. </p>
<h2>Failing to correct skewed vision</h2>
<p>The Toronto Blue Jays and L.A. Angels seem to have fallen into the common trap of believing their own narrative while negotiating.</p>
<p>The L.A. Angels believed Ohtani would re-sign with them because he valued familiarity, the relationship with the team and the West Coast location.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/armstrong-shohei-ohtani-baseball-blue-jays-1.7052383">Blue Jays believed he would sign with them</a> because of the unique marketing potential being with Canada’s team and the compensation only Rogers could offer, in part because Rogers’ NHL rights were coming to an end.</p>
<p>It’s possible some of those factors did come into play, and that the Blue Jays and Angels executives and fans were not completely wrong to think they had a chance. But clearly, they thought what they had to offer would be enough. It wasn’t.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>There will be ramifications from the Blue Jays’ pursuit of Ohtani. Fans’ expectations will be raised if and when future free agents become available on the open market — notably, <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-vladimir-guerrero-jr-discussed-long-term-deal-but-didnt-find-common-ground/">Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette</a> who will become free agents in 2025.</p>
<p>As we get closer to their pending free agency and negotiations, the Blue Jays would be well served to understand those players’ interests and make sure they can meet them in full — or, risk losing out again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Blue Jays would be well served to heed the lessons learned from losing out on signing Shohei Ohtani to make sure they don’t risk losing out on any more top players.Ryan Clutterbuck, Assistant Professor in Sport Management, Brock UniversityMichael Van Bussel, Assistant Professor in Sport Management, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2125822023-10-17T14:29:15Z2023-10-17T14:29:15ZBabe Ruth, patron saint of the home run, turned the ball field into a church – and lived his own Catholic faith in the spotlight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548632/original/file-20230916-36057-gwy97g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C1022%2C858&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Sultan of Swat turned every stadium into a cathedral, and home runs into a sacrament.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/babes-fungo-bat-sets-record-highlight-of-the-charity-news-photo/515291512?adppopup=true">Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“I’ve tried ‘em all, I really have,” Susan Sarandon’s character Annie Savoy says in the movie “<a href="https://www.tcm.com/tcmdb/title/69864/bull-durham/#overview">Bull Durham</a>.” But “the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball.”</p>
<p>If your beliefs look anything like Annie’s, then you surely know that October is the equivalent of the <a href="https://www.myjewishlearning.com/article/the-high-holidays/">Jewish High Holy Days</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/story/holy-week">Christianity’s Holy Week</a> and the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/story/holy-week">Muslim month of Ramadan</a> rolled into one, because you are eating and breathing the MLB playoffs and World Series.</p>
<p>If you are like the majority of Americans, though, the game is just not on your radar, unless you live in a city with a team that’s <a href="https://www.mlb.com/postseason">still in the running</a>. And, as even lovers of the game must admit, baseball is certainly no longer the “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691058856/creating-the-national-pastime">national pastime</a>.”</p>
<p>But there is one part of the game that still makes home-page news: the home run.</p>
<p>If you were aware last year that New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34727723/new-york-yankees-star-aaron-judge-launches-62nd-home-run-sets-al-single-season-record">hit 62 of them</a>, or know about the prodigious feats of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/19/sports/baseball/shohei-ohtani-babe-ruth.html">Shohei Ohtani</a>, or you tune in to see the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Home_Run_Derby">Home Run Derby</a>, it’s because you know watching a baseball fly majestically in the air 400 or 500 feet and land among worshipping fans is indeed a religious experience of awe and wonder. One of those fans, in fact, will be thrilled to bring that ball home as a “relic.”</p>
<p>Baseball historians agree that Babe Ruth made the home run baseball’s revelatory moment. The connections between the Sultan of Swat and religion go further, though. The prodigious slugger is not just baseball’s patron saint, but its savior, returning a holy aura to the scandal-plagued game. As <a href="https://sites.temple.edu/rebeccatalpert/">a scholar of religion and sports</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/rel10050337">I have argued</a> that Ruth played another important role by making Americans more comfortable with Catholicism.</p>
<h2>Saving a troubled sport</h2>
<p>Before Ruth, the record for home runs belonged to Ned Williamson, <a href="https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/september-24-1919-babe-ruth-passes-ned-williamsons-homer-mark/.">who hit 27</a> in 1884. But the Bambino slugged 29 in 1919, 54 in 1920 and <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruthba01.shtml">reached the Holy Grail</a> of 60 in 1927. He finished his career with 714, breaking <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/roger-connor/">Roger Connor’s</a> record of 138.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548634/original/file-20230916-21-qc7w4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a white baseball uniform, with a baseball glove on one hand, shakes hands with a man in a dark coat and fedora." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548634/original/file-20230916-21-qc7w4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548634/original/file-20230916-21-qc7w4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548634/original/file-20230916-21-qc7w4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548634/original/file-20230916-21-qc7w4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=477&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548634/original/file-20230916-21-qc7w4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548634/original/file-20230916-21-qc7w4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548634/original/file-20230916-21-qc7w4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=599&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Babe Ruth shakes hands with U.S. President Warren Harding during a game while playing for the New York Yankees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/great-all-round-baseball-player-babe-ruth-shakes-hands-with-news-photo/2665068?adppopup=true">Keystone/Hulton Archive via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>His headline-grabbing feats had an outsized impact. In 1919, baseball was reeling from the “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780805065374/eightmenout">Black Sox scandal</a>” that destroyed “the faith of fifty million,” as <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Great-Gatsby/F-Scott-Fitzgerald/9781982146702">F. Scott Fitzgerald</a> put it. Several players on the Chicago White Sox were discovered to have taken money from gamblers <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-gambling-built-baseball-and-then-almost-destroyed-it-123254">to throw the World Series</a>, and baseball’s reputation and popularity were in jeopardy.</p>
<p>Ruth – with his larger-than-life presence, rags-to-riches life story and capacity for hitting home runs galore – was baseball’s salvation. His impact on American culture can be summarized by <a href="https://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/bison-books/9780803292185/">his answer</a> to a newspaper reporter in 1930 who questioned why Ruth thought he deserved to make more money than President Herbert Hoover. “Why not?” he said. “I had a better year than he did.” </p>
<p>Yet Ruth’s iconic status made life hard on those players who eventually broke his records. <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/roger-maris/">Roger Maris</a> was reviled when he hit 61 home runs in 1961. Worse, when African American star <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/01/22/hank-aaron-atlanta-braves-baseball-hall-of-fame">Henry Aaron reached 715 career home runs</a> in 1974, he received racially motivated death threats.</p>
<h2>Carouser and Catholic</h2>
<p>During Ruth’s heyday, his fame didn’t only help baseball, but religion, too. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199329175.013.316">Anti-Catholic sentiment was prevalent</a> in the United States during Ruth’s era, and his proud demonstrations of his Catholic faith helped ameliorate that prejudice.</p>
<p>George Herman “Babe” Ruth, Jr. was raised not by his parents, who could not handle his wild ways, but at St. Mary’s Industrial School in Baltimore, run by the lay Catholic order of St. Xavier. He was <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Babe/Robert-Creamer/9780671760700">particularly influenced by Brother Matthias</a>, who taught him to play baseball, nurtured his abilities and encouraged him to play professionally. Ruth left St. Mary’s to do so, but he retained his allegiance to the school and Catholicism throughout his life.</p>
<p>Everything Ruth did was reported in the newspapers, including in his own <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/ford-frick/">ghost-written columns</a>. It was public knowledge that he attended mass frequently and gave generously to <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-big-fella-jane-leavy?variant=32207595438114">Catholic charities</a>. He married in the church twice – the second time after his first, estranged wife died, reflecting <a href="https://www.dioceseofspokane.org/documents/2016/4/tribunal_2016.pdf?preview">Catholic teachings on divorce and remarriage</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548635/original/file-20230916-21-8u04z6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Half a dozen people pose in a row, wearing formal clothing. One of them is a priest wearing a stole." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548635/original/file-20230916-21-8u04z6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548635/original/file-20230916-21-8u04z6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548635/original/file-20230916-21-8u04z6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548635/original/file-20230916-21-8u04z6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548635/original/file-20230916-21-8u04z6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548635/original/file-20230916-21-8u04z6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548635/original/file-20230916-21-8u04z6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Babe Ruth and his second wife, Claire Hodgson, pose with the priest who performed their marriage ceremony in New York.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ruth-and-bride-babe-ruth-wedding-at-st-gregorys-l-to-r-news-photo/515170948?adppopup=true">Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ruth demonstrated Catholic values in other ways. He was viewed as a <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/116439/the-big-bam-by-leigh-montville/">patron saint of children</a>: delighted to be surrounded by them, never refusing them autographs, and visiting them in hospitals and orphanages wherever he went. One, Johnny Sylvester, made a surprising recovery after Ruth <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-big-fella-jane-leavy?variant=32207595438114">promised him a home run</a> and subsequently hit three in the World Series. Newspapers credited Ruth with a miracle. </p>
<p>Often characterized as a sinner, given his penchant for flaunting club rules and carousing off the clock, Ruth <a href="https://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/bison-books/9780803292185/">frequently and publicly repented</a> and consulted with priests, often from St. Mary’s, who helped him acknowledge his failures and work to change his ways. He lived out the Catholic cycle of sin and repentance regularly throughout his life, expanding American society’s awareness of the Catholic value of forgiveness. </p>
<p>Finally, Ruth consistently <a href="https://upress.missouri.edu/9780826221605/breaking-babe-ruth/">stood up to team owners</a> in support of his own and all players’ rights to fair pay, demonstrating the Catholic value of social and economic justice.</p>
<p>Ruth’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/rel10050337">presence as a public Catholic</a> <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-big-fella-jane-leavy?variant=32207595438114">continued in death</a>. Hundreds of thousands filed past his coffin as he <a href="https://www.life.com/history/bye-bye-bambino-the-funeral-of-babe-ruth/">lay in state in Yankee Stadium</a>, rosary beads in hand, a huge crucifix and vigil candle beside his coffin. His funeral was conducted at St. Patrick’s Cathedral by 44 priests, including New York’s Cardinal Francis Spellman. One hundred thousand people lined the route as his coffin was transported to Gate of Heaven Catholic Cemetery in Valhalla, New York.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548636/original/file-20230916-25-g6296f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three preteen boys in t-shirts and pants walk solemnly past an open casket surrounded by plants." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548636/original/file-20230916-25-g6296f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548636/original/file-20230916-25-g6296f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548636/original/file-20230916-25-g6296f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548636/original/file-20230916-25-g6296f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548636/original/file-20230916-25-g6296f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548636/original/file-20230916-25-g6296f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548636/original/file-20230916-25-g6296f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Babe Ruth’s body lay in an open casket in Yankee Stadium, where tens of thousands of fans paid their respects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-body-of-babe-ruth-lies-in-an-open-casket-in-yankee-news-photo/73333902?adppopup=true">Mark Rucker/Transcendental Graphics, Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When I was teaching a sport and society course in 2018, I came across a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/05/nyregion/babe-ruth-grave-yankees-red-sox.html">New York Times</a> article about Ruth’s grave still being a pilgrimage site for Yankees fans, including an occasional nun, who hoped to help the Yankees win the World Series. Others who came to pay respects over the years were, ironically, fans of the Boston Red Sox – the Yankees’ archrival, who traded Ruth away in January 1920 – and thought his powers could reverse “<a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Legend-of-the-Curse-of-the-Bambino/Dan-Shaughnessy/9780689872358">the Curse of the Bambino</a>.” And who knows, maybe they did. </p>
<p>His large gravestone depicts Jesus blessing a young ballplayer. For many Americans who feel something holy is happening on the ball field, Ruth was both: the miraculous ballplayer, and the godlike figure who could perform miracles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212582/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca T. Alpert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ruth’s headline-grabbing home runs helped his sport recover from scandal, while his own story helped combat anti-Catholic prejudice.Rebecca T. Alpert, Professor of Religion Emerita, Temple UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2069692023-06-06T14:29:01Z2023-06-06T14:29:01ZUK PM Sunak visits Washington to strengthen ties, watch baseball – having already struck out on trade deal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530357/original/file-20230606-21-psgkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3820%2C1784&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'I don't drink coffee, I take tea' -- the quintessential Englishman in, well, D.C.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-meets-with-britains-prime-minister-news-photo/1251744533?adppopup=true">Paul Faith/WPA Pool/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Alongside <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-sunak-says-he-wants-build-biden-ties-washington-trip-2023-06-03/">meetings with President Joe Biden</a>, U.S. business leaders and members of Congress, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bac3258e-6051-4658-bdc4-8acfc9410242">take in a baseball game</a> during a Washington trip that starts June 7, 2023. He may be given the honor of <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunaks-us-visit-baseball-biden-and-billions-in-investment-lcl8lcjzm">throwing out the first pitch</a>; many at home will be hoping he doesn’t drop the ball.</p>
<p>It is a high-stakes visit for Sunak, his first to Washington since becoming prime minister in October 2022. The British leader will be keen to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-business-baseball-uk-pms-213136143.html">showcase his close relationship with Biden</a>. And he will want to underscore <a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/sanity-returns-to-british-foreign-policy/">his more stable and pragmatic foreign policy</a>, in contrast to his predecessors, <a href="https://theconversation.com/boris-johnsons-messy-political-legacy-of-lies-scandals-and-delivering-brexit-to-his-base-186601">Boris Johnson</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-prime-minister-forced-from-office-amid-economic-turmoil-chaos-in-parliament-and-a-party-in-disarray-192795">Liz Truss</a>.</p>
<p>Yet Sunak, despite being prime minister for less than a year, is under great pressure. His party remains far <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls">behind in the polls</a>, less than 18 months before the next general election is held in the U.K. </p>
<p>He has little time to burnish his credentials as a leader, and Washington may not be the most fertile ground to do so. Bilateral relations between London and Washington have been <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bac3258e-6051-4658-bdc4-8acfc9410242">thorny in recent years</a>, and three topics illustrate the challenges – and possible opportunities – ahead for Sunak: trade, Northern Ireland and security.</p>
<h2>The forgotten trade deal</h2>
<p>Sunak and Biden will have a busy agenda during talks due to take place in the Oval Office on June 8, but one topic will be conspicuously absent. As a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-30/uk-s-sunak-won-t-push-biden-for-trade-deal-on-us-visit-next-week#xj4y7vzkg">Downing Street spokesperson confirmed</a> prior to the trip: “We are not seeking to push a free trade agreement with the U.S. currently.” </p>
<p>This is in stark contrast to what Sunak’s Conservative Party manifesto had touted in the 2019 general election – the second to take place since a 2016 referendum upset the U.K.’s trading setup by triggering the country’s exit from the European Union.</p>
<p>The document promised that in a post-Brexit U.K., 80% of trade would be covered by <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-conservative-manifesto-explained/">free trade agreements within three years</a>.</p>
<p>Negotiations for a trade deal with the U.S. began in 2020 under the Trump administration, but made limited progress. The pandemic, and the question of access of U.S. agricultural goods to the U.K. market, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1fd173a6-8718-4798-b692-685801ec1604">further disrupted talks</a>. In particular, U.K. concerns about <a href="https://www.mercatus.org/research/policy-briefs/removing-barriers-us-uk-agricultural-trade">differing food standard practices in the U.S.</a>, such as chlorine-washed chicken or hormone-treated beef, complicated discussions.</p>
<p>Yet the broad <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/a-new-horizon-in-u-s-trade-policy/">ideological shift in American attitudes toward trade</a> proved the main obstacle. Since taking office, the Biden administration has consistently expressed its skepticism of emulating past free-trade agreements. According to the administration, these deals have too often ended up <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/03/us/politics/biden-free-trade.html">impoverishing American workers</a>, while enriching multinational firms. </p>
<p>That shift on trade policy is not limited to members of the administration. Both Democrats and Republicans, even if for different reasons, have become <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/25/joe-bidens-economy-trade-china-00096781">more critical of unfettered globalization</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a lifejacket stands on a boat in front of white cliffs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530355/original/file-20230606-23-psgkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C147%2C3912%2C2468&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530355/original/file-20230606-23-psgkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530355/original/file-20230606-23-psgkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530355/original/file-20230606-23-psgkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530355/original/file-20230606-23-psgkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530355/original/file-20230606-23-psgkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530355/original/file-20230606-23-psgkb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Don’t expect the U.S. to throw a lifeline on trade any time soon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BritainPolitics/52fef49e7bc546f4bcc3cbcd3a645ae6/photo?Query=Rishi%20sunak&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=3488&currentItemNo=6">Yui Mok/Pool Photo via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In lieu of any breakthrough on a trade deal between the two countries, the U.K. has been focusing efforts on <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/trade-minister-in-us-to-sign-fourth-trade-pact-with-a-us-state">striking deals with individual U.S. states</a>. In particular, the U.K. government hopes Rishi’s visit can pave the way for closer partnerships with California and Texas.</p>
<p>But these will have only a modest impact at best, when the U.K. economy is forecast to <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-recession-economy-inflation-international-monetary-fund-growth-forecast/">grow by only 0.4% in 2023</a>.</p>
<h2>The shadow of Northern Ireland</h2>
<p>With trade unlikely to further cement U.S.-U.K. ties, Sunak will also have to navigate the divisive question of Northern Ireland. There is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/10/why-joe-biden-is-so-invested-in-defending-good-friday-agreement">still strong bipartisan support in the U.S. for the 1998 Good Friday Agreement</a>, which ended 30 years of conflict in Northern Ireland. This reflects the historic role played by Democratic and Republican administrations <a href="https://theconversation.com/good-friday-agreement-how-the-us-came-to-be-a-key-broker-in-northern-irelands-peace-deal-202584">in helping to mediate and implement the accord</a>.</p>
<p>In that context, the U.K.’s exit from the EU served only to fuel tension between London and Washington. Brexit negotiations lingered for many years because of the sheer difficulty of reconciling conflicting pressures over the status of Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K. but borders the Republic of Ireland, which remains an EU member state. </p>
<p>Throughout the prolonged Brexit process, American politicians across the aisle repeatedly expressed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/20/pelosi-warns-changes-to-northern-ireland-protocol-could-affect-us-trade-deal-with-britain">their concerns to the U.K. government</a>. They emphasized the need to avoid measures that could restore a hard border on the island of Ireland. Among those airing such views was Joe Biden, who <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1306334039557586944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1306334039557586944%7Ctwgr%5E707718523194ac7991194adfce8016bce541f538%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconversation.com%2Fgood-friday-agreement-how-the-us-came-to-be-a-key-broker-in-northern-irelands-peace-deal-202584">warned in 2020,</a> “We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit.”</p>
<p>Biden’s deeply rooted <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/10/why-joe-biden-is-so-invested-in-defending-good-friday-agreement">emotional attachment to Ireland</a> has hardly abated since he has been in office. His recent visit in April, for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, was <a href="https://theconversation.com/good-friday-agreement-joe-bidens-historic-visit-to-ireland-comes-during-turbulent-times-203258">rich in personal significance and symbolism</a>. </p>
<p>Most of the trip was viewed as a homecoming, with Biden visiting his ancestral roots in Ireland. His time in Northern Ireland was brief in comparison, with only a <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11964121/Joe-Biden-meet-Rishi-Sunak-visit-Belfast-today-no-trade-talks.html">terse meeting with Sunak</a>. And if the message was not sufficiently clear, later remarks by Biden at a fundraiser <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/joe-biden-northern-ireland-brits-screw-around/">left little doubt</a> as to the president’s feelings. He went to the island of Ireland “to make sure the Brits didn’t screw around” with the region’s peace process, he said.</p>
<p>Sunak did <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bac3258e-6051-4658-bdc4-8acfc9410242">win some praise for the recent Windsor Framework</a>, which addressed some of the tension over Northern Ireland. But he has yet to solve the prolonged <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1488bce3-7da9-4d16-b3f1-d4c465e218a5">boycott of power-sharing institutions</a> by the pro-U.K. Democratic Unionist Party.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, Sunak will have his work cut out for him to convince Biden that the U.K. can play a constructive role in further stabilizing Northern Ireland. </p>
<h2>Better off sticking to security and China</h2>
<p>Trade and Northern Ireland will likely bring little joy for Sunak. He will, however, be on far more fertile ground when the discussion shifts to the realm of security.</p>
<p>The prime minister has signaled on many occasions his <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-17/sunak-says-uk-aligned-with-us-on-china-mulls-investment-curbs#xj4y7vzkg">very close alignment with the U.S.</a> insofar as tackling China. At the recent G7 summit in Japan, Sunak <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-prime-minister-rishi-sunak-ranks-china-top-threat-global-security-g7-summit/">defined Beijing</a> as “the biggest challenge of our age to global security and prosperity.” And the March 2023 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/13/fact-sheet-trilateral-australia-uk-us-partnership-on-nuclear-powered-submarines/">signing of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal</a> in San Diego further confirmed the U.K.’s tilt to the Indo-Pacific.</p>
<p>Regarding Ukraine, the U.K. has frequently been at the vanguard of providing support and new weapons to Kyiv. In May 2023, Sunak announced a plan, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/16/uk-and-netherlands-agree-international-coalition-to-help-ukraine-with-f-16-jets">build an “international coalition</a>” to help Ukraine acquire F-16 fighter jets. </p>
<p>Britain also led the way in being the first Western country <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/05/15/britain-to-train-ukrainian-pilots-supply-more-missiles-and-drones/">to supply long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine</a>. This was after being the first country to agree to deliver battle tanks to support the Ukrainian army. And that bullishness <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/how-the-uk-helped-convince-the-us-and-its-allies-to-spend-big-to-help-ukraine-in-its-war-with-russia-193918302.html">reportedly played a key part</a> in convincing Washington to lift its objection to sending F-16s to Ukraine.</p>
<p>The alignment in the field of global security will undoubtedly help Sunak’s attempt to ingratiate himself with Biden. But the harder test will be whether this convergence between Washington and London can extend to NATO. </p>
<p>The alliance will hold a crucial summit in Lithuania in July, where it will discuss longer-term plans to support Ukraine. That will include the thorny question of offering NATO membership to Kiev, which does not yet <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/ukraine-nato-membership-vilnius-summit/">have unanimous support among members</a>.</p>
<p>Even without talk of a trade deal, in terms of agenda items on Sunak’s visit, the bases are loaded. It is questionable whether he can hit a home run though.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206969/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Garret Martin receives funding from the European Union for the research center he co-directs at American University, the Transatlantic Policy Center.</span></em></p>The UK leader’s visit to the US comes amid trouble at home, with low ratings for his Conservative Party. But don’t expect much joy for Sunak on trade or Northern Ireland.Garret Martin, Senior Professorial Lecturer, Co-Director Transatlantic Policy Center, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2042512023-04-26T12:28:10Z2023-04-26T12:28:10ZA tweak to the University of Nebraska’s logo shows how the once benign ‘OK’ sign has entered a ‘purgatory of meaning’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522694/original/file-20230424-24-f223jw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C54%2C5160%2C3391&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nebraska Cornhuskers mascot Herbie Husker pumps up the crowd during a 2015 football game.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/nebraska-cornhuskers-mascot-herbie-husker-is-seen-during-news-photo/493666358?adppopup=true">Michael Hickey/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On April 17, 2023, the Nebraska Cornhuskers unveiled the latest version of their beloved mascot, <a href="https://myhusker.com/herbie-husker-nebraska/">Herbie Husker</a>.</p>
<p>Herbie’s left hand no longer forms the “OK” symbol. Instead, an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/19/nebraska-herbie-husker-mascot-change/">index finger is raised</a> to indicate that the team is No. 1.</p>
<p>The change was made, University of Nebraska officials explained, because the universal <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-we-say-ok-122528">symbol of approbation</a> – curling the index finger to touch the thumb, forming an “O” – had become associated with white supremacy and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/764728163/the-ok-hand-gesture-is-now-listed-as-a-symbol-of-hate">hate speech</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two cartoon logos of farmers in overalls wearing red cowboy hats." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522812/original/file-20230425-14-dy9dxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522812/original/file-20230425-14-dy9dxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522812/original/file-20230425-14-dy9dxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522812/original/file-20230425-14-dy9dxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522812/original/file-20230425-14-dy9dxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522812/original/file-20230425-14-dy9dxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522812/original/file-20230425-14-dy9dxg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The University of Nebraska determined that the ‘OK’ gesture was too prone to misinterpretation, prompting a change to one of its logos.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.si.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700/MTk3MzE2MzY5MjI0NTc0MjI5/herbiehuskeroldnew.webp">University of Nebraska Athletics</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How did something as benign and commonplace as the “OK” hand gesture come to assume such sinister undertones? And what does the University of Nebraska’s willingness to change its mascot say about the ways in which ambiguous signs and symbols can take on a life of their own?</p>
<h2>A new way to hate?</h2>
<p>In 2015, Milo Yiannopoulos, Richard Spencer and other figures of the “<a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/alt-right">alt-right</a>,” a white nationalist movement, started using the hand gesture in <a href="https://twitter.com/RichardBSpencer/status/796132542739083264">posed photos of themselves</a>. But it took off in February 2017, when a prank message was posted on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2014/09/25/absolutely-everything-you-need-to-know-to-understand-4chan-the-internets-own-bogeyman/">4-chan</a>, the anonymous messaging site that has been a breeding ground for racism and conspiracy theories.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/249/757/858.jpg_large">Operation O-KKK</a>” encouraged the flooding of social media sites like Twitter with posts proclaiming the familiar gesture to be a symbol of the alt-right. But what began as an effort to “<a href="https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2018/09/18/ok-sign-white-power-symbol-or-just-right-wing-troll">troll the libs</a>” quickly took on a life of its own.</p>
<p>In May 2019, an attendee at a Chicago Cubs baseball game made the gesture on camera behind a Black reporter, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/cubs-fan-banned-wrigley-field-after-flashing-white-power-symbol-n1003681">prompting the team to ban him</a> from Wrigley Field.</p>
<p>Shortly thereafter, school officials recalled yearbooks in <a href="https://abc7chicago.com/white-power-sign-yearbook-photo-symbol-gesture/5323243/">Petaluma, California</a>, and <a href="https://www.insider.com/oak-park-river-forest-high-school-reprinting-yearbooks-white-power-symbols-2019-5">Chicago</a> after discovering pictures of students making the gesture. The Anti-Defamation League went on to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/09/26/okay-hand-sign-has-moved-trolling-campaign-real-hate-symbol-civil-rights-group-says/">add the gesture</a> to its database of hate symbols.</p>
<p>There have also been cases of mistaken identity, however.</p>
<p>During the 2019 Army-Navy football game, midshipmen and cadets flashed what seemed to be the white power gesture on-camera behind the ESPN commentator – a game that was politically charged because then-President Donald Trump was in attendance.</p>
<p>The academies, however, determined that the students had been playing the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/20/us/army-navy-circle-game.html">Circle Game</a> instead – a practical joke in which participants try to trick each other into looking at a circle gesture, which prompts a punch.</p>
<p>The Army-Navy incident was a high-profile example of misperception. But there have been several similar episodes involving the same gesture.</p>
<h2>Symbolic overreaction</h2>
<p>In June 2020, for example, a utility employee in San Diego supposedly made a white power sign while dangling his arm from a company truck. Another motorist took a picture and reported the worker to his company. The employee was fired, even though he claimed to be merely <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/502975-california-man-fired-over-alleged-white-power-sign-says-he-was/">cracking his knuckles</a>.</p>
<p>And in April 2021, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/16/business/media/jeopardy-hand-gesture-maga-conspiracy.html">a contestant on “Jeopardy!”</a> held up three fingers when he was introduced in celebration of having won the three previous games. Yet the belief that it was a white power gesture prompted nearly 600 former contestants to <a href="https://medium.com/@j.contestants.letter/letter-from-former-jeopardy-2eda854efdf1">sign a statement</a> denouncing what they perceived as a gesture of hate.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9ET15AOp-6Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A ‘Jeopardy!’ contestant came under fire for flashing a symbol meant to indicate his three wins in 2021.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As I describe in my recently published book on the <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781633888906/Failure-to-Communicate-Why-We-Misunderstand-What-We-Hear-Read-and-See">causes of miscommunication</a>, these types of incidents are not new and not unusual. </p>
<p>They can be characterized as symptoms of <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100208829;jsessionid=C4EB93703624B46E08D17572D94A202C">moral panic</a>, in which the media, politicians and activists fan the flames of uncertainty and worry.</p>
<p>In the case of the “OK” symbol, <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-far-right-extremist-violence-really-spike-in-2017-89067">concerns about white supremacy snowballed</a> in the wake of events like <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-ryan-kellys-pulitzer-prize-winning-photograph-an-american-guernica-82567">the 2017 Unite the Right rally</a>, when white nationalists and far-right militias converged on Charlottesville, Virginia.</p>
<p>The ensuing clashes with counterprotesters resulted in more than 30 injuries and one death. Afterward, many Americans were particularly sensitive to racist symbols – and perhaps more prone to interpret ambiguous gestures as white power signs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Marchers holding Nazi and Confederate flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522839/original/file-20230425-14-3mecq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522839/original/file-20230425-14-3mecq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522839/original/file-20230425-14-3mecq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522839/original/file-20230425-14-3mecq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522839/original/file-20230425-14-3mecq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522839/original/file-20230425-14-3mecq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522839/original/file-20230425-14-3mecq7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators carry Confederate and Nazi flags during the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Va., on Aug. 12, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/demonstrators-carry-confederate-and-nazi-flags-during-the-news-photo/830922288?adppopup=true">Emily Molli/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Gang signs and moral panic</h2>
<p>A very similar dynamic involving gang signs has played out over the past couple of decades. </p>
<p>In 2007, the Virginia Tourism Agency created an <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2007-08-19-0708180225-story.html">ad campaign</a> that included actors making the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/fashion/hand-heart-gesture-grows-in-popularity-noticed.html">heart sign</a>: curled fingers joined with thumbs pointing downward. The campaign was changed when state officials discovered that the street and prison gang the Gangster Disciples <a href="https://www.c-ville.com/Thug_life">also used the symbol</a>.</p>
<p>In 2013, a group of California <a href="https://www.wtvr.com/2013/11/06/police-students-could-be-mistaken-as-gang-members-with-new-school-sweatshirt">high school seniors</a> ordered sweatshirts with “XIV” – their year of graduation – emblazoned on them. However, the number is also a symbol of the northern California <a href="https://unitedgangs.com/nortenos-norte-14/">Norteños gangs</a>, as “N” is the 14th letter of the alphabet. To avoid any association with the gangs, school officials advised students to avoid wearing the clothing.</p>
<p>And in March 2014, a Mississippi high school placed a student on indefinite suspension after he had been photographed standing next to his biology project. He was accused of flashing a gang sign because his thumb and two other fingers were outstretched. These form a “V” and an “L” – a symbol of the Vice Lords gang. But the student <a href="https://reason.com/2014/03/10/mississippi-high-school-suspended-studen/">protested that he was merely indicating</a> “3,” the number of his football jersey, which he was also wearing in the photo.</p>
<p>Tragically, there have also been episodes in which sign language was <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/deaf-woman-asl-sign-language-shot-gang-signs-1639018">misinterpreted</a> as gang symbols, leading to <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/deaf-man-stabbed-sign-language-mistaken-gang-signs/story?id=18213488">acts of violence</a> against those simply trying to communicate.</p>
<h2>Kids, cats and devils?</h2>
<p>As these examples make clear, moral panics often reflect society’s anxieties. </p>
<p>They run the gamut, from uneasiness about young children <a href="https://theconversation.com/banning-smartphones-for-kids-is-just-another-technology-fearing-moral-panic-74485">using smartphones</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-cats-for-destroying-wildlife-shaky-logic-is-leading-to-moral-panic-138710">house cats killing wildlife</a> and even to role-playing games fostering <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/18/us/when-dungeons-dragons-set-off-a-moral-panic.html?">demon worship</a>.</p>
<p>Fears of gangs and hate groups are just the latest manifestation of this phenomenon.</p>
<p>At the time of the Army-Navy game, The Washington Post wrote that the “OK” gesture “now lives in a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/12/16/how-okay-hand-sign-keeps-tricking-us-into-looking/">purgatory of meaning</a>.” </p>
<p>It’s hardly surprising, then, that universities are distancing themselves from ambiguous and controversial symbols. </p>
<p>Moral panics may not be grounded in reality, but the concerns they give life to can still be bad for one’s image – or one’s team.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204251/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger J. Kreuz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hand gestures are notoriously prone to misinterpretation.Roger J. Kreuz, Associate Dean and Professor of Psychology, University of MemphisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034782023-04-13T20:47:26Z2023-04-13T20:47:26ZNew MLB rules are consistent with baseball’s past — not an assault on tradition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520885/original/file-20230413-26-ikpth7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3896%2C2599&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For the first time ever, baseball players will be governed by a clock this season. It's one of several new rule changes aimed at making the game more appealing.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/new-mlb-rules-are-consistent-with-baseball-s-past-—-not-an-assault-on-tradition" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The final line of the beloved baseball anthem <em>Take Me Out to the Ball Game</em> proclaims “For it’s one, two, three strikes you’re out at the old ball game.” While it’s still three strikes and you’re out, the old ball game has some <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts">new rules for the 2023 Major League Baseball (MLB) season</a>.</p>
<p>Following a pilot run in the minor leagues, several rule changes have been introduced to accelerate the pace of MLB games. These changes have been spear-headed by MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2017/apr/18/rob-manfred-baseball-commissioner-mlb">who has been a modernizing agent</a> for a game steeped in tradition. </p>
<p>Manfred is determined to improve baseball’s watchability and to create more offensive dynamism to appeal to a younger generation of fans.</p>
<p>MLB’s product has stagnated under an analytical revolution that has resulted in smart statistical approaches to baseball, but has dulled the spontaneity and creativity that enchanted fans for decades.</p>
<h2>What’s new?</h2>
<p>The biggest change is the introduction of a pitch timer. The absence of a timing device used to be a point of distinction for baseball compared to other major league sports, but that distinction is no more.</p>
<p>Similar to a shot clock in basketball or a play clock in football, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/pitch-timer">MLB now has a timer governing the maximum time intervals between pitches</a> ranging from 15 to 30 seconds, depending on the situation. </p>
<p>Batters are also beholden to the clock, and can’t remove themselves from the batter’s box (although they do get one timeout per at-bat). Failure to comply will result in an automatic strike or ball call, depending on if the pitcher or batter is found in violation. </p>
<p>Pitchers are now limited by how often they can check on baserunners. They are now only allowed two disengagements — either a pickoff attempt or a step-off — per plate appearance. This will allow baserunners to <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlbs-year-of-the-stolen-base-why-players-think-new-rules-should-result-in-more-steals-in-2023/">attempt more steals</a>, a practice the MLB wants to encourage since <a href="https://batflipsandnerds.com/2018/11/03/analytics-and-its-effects-on-the-mlb-the-stolen-base/">stolen base attempts are exciting for viewers</a>.</p>
<p>To further incentivize base stealing, base sizes have been increased to 18 inches square from 15. This will allow runners to arrive at their destination a split second quicker. While this might not seem like a huge deal, <a href="https://projects.seattletimes.com/2017/mariners-preview/science/">every extra millisecond counts</a> in baseball.</p>
<p>Lastly, the infield shift — a defensive move that shifts all the infielders to the side of the diamond a hitter usually hits to — has also been banned as a result of the new rules.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three baseball players stand half-crouched between first and third base, presumably as they wait for the hitter to hit the ball." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520614/original/file-20230412-24-mspikd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Minnesota Twins infielders stand in a defensive infield shift during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles in May 2022 in Baltimore.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Tommy Gilligan)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/ted-williams-faced-defensive-shifts-in-1940s-c191605204">Managers have used the infield shift for decades</a> as a defensive strategy. The shift is consistent with traditional baseball logic that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/berniepleskoff/2019/11/19/baseball-by-the-numbers/">uses percentages and statistics to a team’s advantage</a>.</p>
<p>The infield shift was employed sparingly for the most part, but the practice has seen a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mlb-rules-changes-infield-shift-a66b8e9de1ef6b30a0b19fe4fb0dcb94">dramatic uptake in recent years</a>. Its overuse was deemed an impediment to offensive play and now, with the new rules in place, there must be two infielders on either side of second base.</p>
<h2>Reactions to the changes</h2>
<p>Baseball fans <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/04/07/baseball-trump-georgia-voters/">tend to err on the side of conservatism</a> and usually don’t embrace change. The new rules seem to interfere with baseball’s laissez-faire past. </p>
<p>Players and managers criticized Manfred’s agenda as they prepared for the 2023 season, with some calling it “<a href="https://theathletic.com/4194101/2023/02/14/mlb-rule-changes-spring-training/">the shit show</a>” in spring training. </p>
<p>But others see the rule changes as <a href="https://frontofficesports.com/how-rule-changes-could-save-major-league-baseballs-tv-future/">much-needed medicine for a sport that has lost its way</a>. Game times have <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml">ballooned in the 21st century</a> and <a href="https://www.nj.com/yankees/2021/05/mlb-strikes-out-don-mattingly-reggie-jackson-nolan-ryan-turned-off-by-unwatchable-games.html">former players have been critical</a> of trends that have diminished baseball’s entertainment value.</p>
<p>Whatever the stance, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mlb-pitch-clock-time-of-game-5a7ed3d0a51d7dfea7ba3d1c28f2dbb6">the new rules have already resulted in</a> significant changes: the average game time has decreased by 30 minutes and the number of stolen bases have doubled. More time is needed to see if these changes will connect with a younger audience.</p>
<h2>Change is the only constant</h2>
<p>There’s an almost mythical belief that baseball doesn’t change over time. In the nostalgia-dripping film, <em>Field of Dreams</em>, Terence Mann (James Earl Jones) says to Ray Kinsella (Kevin Costner): “The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball…This field, this game, it’s a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good, and it could be again.”</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A 15-inch-square base used in 2022 is on the left, while an 18-inch-square base being used in 2023 is on the right" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520886/original/file-20230413-24-jen41o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Another new rule change concerns the size of bases. The new, larger base is seen with the older, smaller base — which officials hope will result in more base stealing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Morry Gash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Baseball is the same now as it has always been, as the saying goes. <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/3/29/18286389/best-players-ever-woba-adam-ottavino-babe-ruth">Baseball stars from yesteryear</a> would fare well in the modern iteration of the game because of this. When this assumption is challenged, accusations of blasphemy result. </p>
<p>No one knows this better than relief pitcher Adam Ottavino, who speculated that <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25506993/free-agent-pitcher-adam-ottavino-says-whiff-babe-ruth">he’d have terrific success against the legendary Babe Ruth</a> if the latter played today instead of the 1920s. </p>
<p>Criticism of Ottavino was rooted in an underlying assumption that the game hasn’t changed. But baseball has changed, and so have the rules. <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/designated-hitter-rule">The designated hitter rule,</a> which allows another player to bat in place of the pitcher, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/02/07/after-s-year-pitcher-mlb-lowered-mound-now-league-could-do-it-again/">lowered pitching mounds</a> and <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-to-alter-baseballs-for-2021">changes to the ball itself</a> serve as reminders of that.</p>
<p>It’s even more striking if we consider the norms of 19th century play. It was a very different game back then. Could you imagine New York Mets pitcher Justin Verlander, for example, purposely drilling a baserunner with a baseball to tag him out? Once upon a time, that’s how outs were made. It was called “soaking.” </p>
<p>Or what about a scenario where a slugger like Aaron Judge lets countless balls pass without penalty until he receives a pitch to his liking? Since there used to be no strike zone, batters only swung at pitches they found appealing. It sounds outlandish, but baseball used to be played this way. </p>
<h2>What’s next for baseball?</h2>
<p>The future provides little comfort to the change-adverse; baseball purists are already wringing their hands with what’s to come. Notably, <a href="https://theconversation.com/robo-umps-are-coming-to-major-league-baseball-and-the-game-will-never-be-the-same-132640">robot umpires are being tested at the minor league level</a> in hopes of making umpiring more accurate. It’s not a question of <em>if</em>, but <em>when</em> that technology will be introduced at the major league level — <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/30/23189572/robot-umpires-major-league-baseball-2024">perhaps as soon as next season</a>.</p>
<p>It’s true that the baseball of today bears little resemblance to its original, sacrosanct version. By looking back at the history of the sport, and all the rule changes that have taken place over the years, we can be reminded of baseball’s constant evolution.</p>
<p>MLB’s willingness to adapt could be what the league needs to maintain its relevance. Interest in baseball has been <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/07/sport/mlb-opening-day-baseball-popularity-spt-intl/index.html">declining over the years</a> and as a major sports league, the MLB is responsible for keeping the game exciting for viewers. Only time will tell if the new changes will succeed in bringing baseball back to the masses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203478/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Greenham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Following a pilot run in the minor leagues, several rule changes have been introduced to the MLB 2023 season to accelerate the pace of the games.Craig Greenham, Associate professor, Department of Kinesiology, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032262023-04-07T12:13:16Z2023-04-07T12:13:16ZMLB home run counts are rising – and global warming is playing a role<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519633/original/file-20230405-20-qoakrv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C3000%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Another homer off the bat of Aaron Judge.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/1afab4defa934a1db3455fc35f5fe688">AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Home runs are exhilarating – those lofting moments when everyone looks skyward, baseball players and fans alike, anxiously awaiting the outcome: run or out, win or loss, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KIAT6saGZA">elation or despair</a>.</p>
<p>Over the past several Major League Baseball seasons, home run numbers have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkeNJqqKX5I">climbed dramatically</a>, including Aaron Judge’s <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/aaron-judge-breaks-roger-maris-home-run-record-with-62">record-breaking 62 homers</a> for the New York Yankees in 2022.</p>
<p>Baseball analysts have pointed to many different factors for this surge, from changes in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/sports/baseball/mlb-change-baseball-rawlings.html">baseball construction</a> to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/mlb-launch-angles-story/">advances in game analytics</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0235.1">Our study</a>, published April 7, 2023, offers solid evidence for another cause – rising global temperatures.</p>
<h2>What we learned from 100,000 baseball games</h2>
<p>The physics tell a simple and compelling story: Warm air is less dense than cool air. As air heats up and molecules move faster, the air expands, leaving more space between molecules. As a result, a batted ball should fly farther on a warmer day than it would on a cooler day owing to less air resistance.</p>
<p>This simple physical link has prompted <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-more-baseball-home-runs/">speculation</a> from the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/tim-mccarver-may-not-be-crazy-the-home-run-and-global-warming-connection/2012/04/30/gIQA1hI1rT_blog.html">media</a> about the connection between climate change and home runs. </p>
<p>But while scientists like <a href="http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/nathan-papers.html">Alan Nathan</a> have shown that balls <a href="http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/Effect%20of%20Temperature%20on%20Home%20Run%20Production.pdf">go farther in higher temperatures</a>, no formal scientific investigation had been performed to prove that global warming is helping fuel baseball’s home run spree – until now.</p>
<p><iframe id="T7XOY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/T7XOY/9/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jpm35hwAAAAJ&hl=en">In</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=QrmlrE0AAAAJ&hl=en">our</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0235.1">study</a>, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in collaboration with anthropologists (and baseball fans) <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZGD7vx8AAAAJ&hl=en">Nathaniel J. Dominy</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jkr2M6kAAAAJ&hl=en">Jeremy M. DeSilva</a>, we used data from over 100,000 Major League Baseball games and 200,000 individual batted balls, alongside observed game day temperatures, to show that warming temperatures have, in fact, increased the number of home runs.</p>
<p>Based on data between 1962 – when <a href="https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/mantle-mickey">Mickey Mantle was American League MVP</a> and <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/history/season/_/year/1962">Willie Mays topped the home run chart</a> – and 2019, we found that a game that is 10 degrees Celsius (18 degree Fahrenheit) warmer than the average game would have nearly 20% more home runs than average. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A ball player raises one finger in the air as he runs the bases, with bright stadium lights behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519637/original/file-20230405-26-6emh2v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The San Diego Padres’ Ha-Seong Kim celebrates a game-ending home run on April 3, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/1afab4defa934a1db3455fc35f5fe688">AP Photo/Gregory Bull</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So, what about everything else that drives home runs? </p>
<p>We can’t run a controlled experiment where we replay each pitch cast since the 1960s and vary only the temperature to assess its effect on home runs. But we can use the trove of data on home runs and temperature to statistically estimate its effect. Whether a game is hotter or cooler than average is not likely to be related to other factors driving home runs, like <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/">ball construction</a>, <a href="https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/rjmorgan/mba211/Steroids%20and%20Major%20League%20Baseball.pdf">steroid abuse</a>, game analytics or <a href="https://sabr.org/journal/article/high-altitude-offense-an-empirical-examination-of-the-relationship-between-runs-scored-and-stadium-elevation/">elevation differences among ballparks</a>. This fact allows us to statistically isolate the <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures">role of temperature</a>. </p>
<p>To verify our game-level model, we use data from <a href="https://technology.mlblogs.com/introducing-statcast-2023-high-frame-rate-bat-and-biomechanics-tracking-3844890264a6">high-speed cameras</a> that ballparks have had since 2015. The cameras provide the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68V-MTm7nUk">launch angle</a> and launch velocity of each hit – 200,000 of them were included in our study. This means we can compare a ball coming off a bat at the same angle and velocity on a warm day and a cool day – near-perfect experimental conditions. </p>
<p>The high-speed camera model nearly exactly replicated the effect of temperature on home runs that we estimated with the game-level data. With this observed relationship between game day temperatures and home runs in hand, we were able to use experiments from climate models to estimate how many home runs have occurred because of climate change so far. </p>
<p>We found that more than 500 home runs since 2010 could be directly linked to reduced air densities driven by human-caused global warming.</p>
<h2>More homers in a warming future</h2>
<p>We can use the same approach to make estimates about home runs in the future. </p>
<p>For example, if the world continues to pump out greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario/">at a high rate</a>, the temperature will continue to climb, and that could soon yield several hundred additional home runs per year. It could add up to several thousand home runs cumulatively over the 21st century.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519147/original/file-20230403-14-5kqu35.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Increase in average number of home runs per year for each U.S. major league ballpark with every 1-degree Celsius (1.8 F) increase in global average temperature. Domed parks control the temperature on the field, so warming is less of a factor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/980110">Christopher W. Callahan</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Teams have ways to counter the heat. They can shift day games to be played at night, for example, or build domes over ballparks. In Denver, where the air is less dense because of its higher elevation, the Rockies <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/13057/baseball-proguestus-home-runs-and-humidors-is-there-a-connection/">started storing game balls in a humidor</a> in 2002 to make them “<a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/13057/baseball-proguestus-home-runs-and-humidors-is-there-a-connection/a">mushier</a>,” increasing their weight and giving pitchers more of a sporting chance. </p>
<h2>It’s not all high-fives</h2>
<p>More home runs might sound exciting, but that boost in homers is also a visible sign of the much larger problems facing sports and people worldwide as the planet warms.</p>
<p><iframe id="A7Tnn" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A7Tnn/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Rising temperatures will <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">threaten the health and safety</a> of baseball players, fans in ballparks and people around the world. <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-climate-solutions-exist-but-humanity-has-to-break-from-the-status-quo-and-embrace-innovation-202134">Without serious efforts</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, rising temperatures will transform <a href="https://theconversation.com/transformational-change-is-coming-to-how-people-live-on-earth-un-climate-adaptation-report-warns-which-path-will-humanity-choose-177604">nearly all aspects of society</a>, from cultural touchstones like baseball to basic human well-being.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203226/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Scientists analyzed 100,000 baseball games, from the days of Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays to Aaron Judge. Here’s what they learned about the climate’s growing role.Christopher W. Callahan, Ph.D. Student in Climate Science, Dartmouth CollegeJustin S. Mankin, Assistant Professor of Geography, Dartmouth CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2021002023-03-29T13:04:24Z2023-03-29T13:04:24ZAgainst baseball’s new pitch clock<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517720/original/file-20230327-16-jmspb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=32%2C21%2C7206%2C4811&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">During the 2023 season, pitchers and hitters will be on the clock for the first time.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aaron-hicks-of-the-new-york-yankees-stands-in-the-batters-news-photo/1471892048?adppopup=true">Julio Aguilar/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Baseball moves very fast. That’s how it seems to me, anyway. </p>
<p>Just try coaching a Little League game; decisions pile up like branches on a tree, as tactical and strategic considerations multiply. </p>
<p>And as a player, when it’s time to act, you need to do so before you even get to the “t” in “think,” as a coach I know used to say.</p>
<p>That’s why it’s hard for me to shake the worry that the executives who restlessly tinker with the rules in an effort to speed up the game are doing so less as its reliable custodians and more as marketers. </p>
<p>Why else would they have adopted the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/27/sports/baseball/rob-manfred-mlb-new-rules.html">new pitch clock rule</a>? </p>
<p>Beginning this season in Major League Baseball, pitchers will have 15 seconds to throw when the bases are empty and 20 seconds when there’s a runner on base. Hitters need to be in the box, looking at the pitcher, with eight seconds left on the clock. Violators will be punished by automatic balls or strikes. There are <a href="https://theathletic.com/4348574/2023/03/27/mlb-replay-rules-2023/">new time limits on managers’ deliberations</a> on whether to challenge calls on the field, too.</p>
<p>But to me, the idea that you need to get things to move faster because it might seem to you – or to potential customers – as if nothing is going on is either a brazen sellout or a remarkable piece of ignorance. </p>
<p>During these purported empty spaces of inaction, the game’s drama is actually unfurling right there in front of you. As I explain in my book “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Infinite-Baseball-Notes-Philosopher-Ballpark/dp/0190928182/">Infinite Baseball</a>,” you just have to know what to look for. </p>
<h2>Seeing the game better</h2>
<p>Every plate appearance – that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1941/09/pitchers-and-catchers/589858/">willful and wily exchange between batter and pitcher</a> – unfolds at the center of attention of every player and spectator. </p>
<p>Hitters develop ways of excelling – or, I should say, coping – and to some extent their strategy consists in scratching out seconds and milliseconds to collect their thoughts, to read the signals, to settle themselves in the box by breathing in, breathing out. </p>
<p>Pitchers, meanwhile, <a href="https://baseballthinktank.com/games-are-won-or-lost-between-pitches/">work to control the rhythm</a> and keep the hitters off guard by concealing what’s coming next. </p>
<p>The scrutiny can be vicious. Twelve-year-old baseball players routinely burst into tears when they have struck out or grounded out yet again.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pitcher screams into glove." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518009/original/file-20230328-763-mp33pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518009/original/file-20230328-763-mp33pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518009/original/file-20230328-763-mp33pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518009/original/file-20230328-763-mp33pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518009/original/file-20230328-763-mp33pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518009/original/file-20230328-763-mp33pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518009/original/file-20230328-763-mp33pb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former pitcher Felix Hernandez screams into his glove after losing his battle with a hitter and surrendering a home run during a game in 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/seattle-mariners-starting-pitcher-felix-hernandez-yells-news-photo/455402578?adppopup=true">Stephen Brashear/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Professional baseball players, no less than their younger counterparts, need tactical guidance and emotional support. The manager is cool in the dugout, surrounded by consiglieri, and in constant contact with coaches on the first and third baselines, who, for their part, are talking to the players.</p>
<p>It’s not rocket science, to be sure; but there is a lot to think about – whether to take a pitch, or fake bunt, or run on contact, or hold, or steal, or sacrifice, and on and on, with answers depending on the situation that itself varies pitch to pitch. Players need all the help they can get.</p>
<p>Clock time is not the only time. Pitches and plate appearances and outs and innings are another way to mark time, the way time in tennis is counted in service games, sets and match points. </p>
<p>In my view, baseball’s problem is not that it is too slow. It’s that it’s too fast. There’s a lot of action; it’s just that novice fans may not have the eyes to see it. </p>
<p>That’s what baseball should be helping viewers do: Slow the game down so they can see it better; or rather, teach them to see it better. </p>
<p>Baseball is an opportunity to learn to see, to notice the detail, to pay attention and uncover the decisions that inform everything that happens on the field. Fielders shift their positions, batters adjust their stances, catchers vary the target they provide, runners shorten or extend their leads. </p>
<p>It all carries information.</p>
<h2>The game only shows up if you do</h2>
<p>But baseball executives who sell the game, and are willing to sell it out, do so by making the game itself expendable. Your typical MLB game is drowned out in distracting bright lights, ear-splitting music, sideline games and giveaways. Roving cameras encourage fans to dance for the public or make out with the person next to them. </p>
<p>Fun is good, and I enjoy the carnival atmosphere, too. (Although if it’s a circus you want, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/arts/dance/savannah-bananas-tik-tok-baseball.html%20to%20real%20baseball">you might prefer the Savannah Bananas</a>, a wildly popular minor league team whose players wear kilts and who have adopted a rule calling a home run an out if a fan catches the ball.) And I don’t begrudge baseball’s entrepreneurs their payday. But no wonder the game seems boring beside all that. The game shows up only if you do. </p>
<p>The problem is not change. Imagine if baseball had never evolved from its past incarnations – <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Deadball_Era">the dead ball era</a> when home runs were a rarity, <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-the-100th-anniversary-of-the-negro-leagues-a-look-back-at-what-was-lost-129678">segregated leagues</a> and <a href="https://www.loc.gov/exhibitions/baseball-americana/about-this-exhibition/the-promise-of-baseball/the-business-of-baseball/a-well-paid-slave/">no free agency</a>. And baseball responded to the remarkable 1968 season, known as “<a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=6534824">the year of the pitcher</a>,” by actually lowering the pitcher’s mound to shift advantage back to batters.</p>
<p>Baseball, like the law – and like society itself – evolves.</p>
<p>Actually, there is another respect in which baseball is like the law. In baseball, the events on the field of play matter less than the assignments of responsibility and the judgments of praise – and blameworthiness. </p>
<p>Real baseball is in the scorebook, for it is there that hits are sorted from physically indiscernible patterns of action that count as fielder’s choices, or errors, or sacrifices. It is there that mere runs separate themselves from earned runs, and that stolen bases assert themselves as achievements that don’t come down to mere <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Defensive_Indifference">defensive indifference</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Baseball fan writes in a scorebook." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518010/original/file-20230328-28-vmkxqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518010/original/file-20230328-28-vmkxqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518010/original/file-20230328-28-vmkxqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518010/original/file-20230328-28-vmkxqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518010/original/file-20230328-28-vmkxqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518010/original/file-20230328-28-vmkxqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518010/original/file-20230328-28-vmkxqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Each game tells a story.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/minnesota-twins-keeps-the-book-with-a-pen-on-his-scorecard-news-photo/473154708?adppopup=true">Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is why keeping score in baseball is never just marking down what happens, like hatch marks on a prison wall marking the passage of time; it is always, rather, a thoughtful reflection on the meaning of events, and so is more like a daily journal. </p>
<p>And it is baseball’s problems – pertaining not only to the question of who’s winning, but rather who deserves credit or blame for this rapid-fire thing that just happened on the field – that define the game and preoccupy players, coaches and fans. </p>
<p>It is this space, one that is not limited to the physical field of play, that finally defines the national pastime and joins players and fans alike in its preservation and celebration.</p>
<p>I certainly appreciate that shorter games, like shorter books, have a certain attraction. They are less demanding and more user-friendly. And there is no doubt that games in MLB have gotten much longer than they used to be.</p>
<p>But baseball’s executives should avoid ruining the game in order to save it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alva Noë does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In between pitches, it might seem as if nothing is going on. But the game’s drama is still unfurling – you just need to know what to look for.Alva Noë, Professor of Philosophy, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930062022-10-27T12:27:53Z2022-10-27T12:27:53ZThe first televised World Series spurred America’s television boom, 75 years ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491965/original/file-20221026-21-k03uax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C59%2C3898%2C2780&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An estimated 3.5 million Americans viewed the first televised World Series at bars, restaurants and storefronts.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/crowd-watching-world-series-game-on-tv-set-in-window-of-news-photo/515248870?phrase=crowd gazing in window at television new york&adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Boston Red Sox catcher Carlton Fisk <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WRi6iZAl-I">desperately waving at his home run to stay in play</a>. Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Kirk Gibson <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZzGkoXlaTM">pumping his arms</a> as he hobbles around second base after muscling a home run off Dennis Eckersley, the Oakland A’s dominant closer. The ground ball hit by New York Mets outfielder Mookie Wilson <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpyJjecJnuI">skipping through the legs</a> of Red Sox first baseman Bill Buckner. </p>
<p>Some of the most dramatic images in World Series history are ingrained in the minds of baseball fans thanks to television coverage. This year’s World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros will surely bring another timeless highlight to the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/2021-world-series-ratings-braves-astros-game-6-draws-14point3-million.html">12 million or so viewers</a> expected to watch. </p>
<p>Yet the first 43 World Series weren’t televised at all. It wasn’t until the 1947 series between the New York Yankees and Brooklyn Dodgers – 75 years ago – that fans could watch their favorite players duke it out on screen. </p>
<p>As I detail in my book “<a href="https://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/bison-original/9780803248250/">Center Field Shot: A History of Baseball on Television</a>,” which I co-authored with Robert Bellamy, the telecasts became a sensation. They drew millions of Americans to a new medium at a time when there were no national networks, only a handful of stations and somewhere between 50,000 and 60,000 TVs in the entire country.</p>
<h2>Negotiations go down to the wire</h2>
<p>In August 1947, the television industry anticipated a possible all-New York World Series: The Yankees had a huge lead in the American League, while the Dodgers also held a substantial one in the National League. </p>
<p>If the two teams met in October, New York’s three television stations – run by NBC ABC, and the now-extinct <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/DuMont-Television-Network">DuMont</a> – decided they wanted to cover the games.</p>
<p>But the rights to televise the games were held by the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Mutual-Broadcasting-System">Mutual Broadcasting System</a>, a radio network that had no television division. Thus, Mutual would need to farm out the coverage to one or more New York stations. </p>
<p>Although no national television network existed at the time, NBC, DuMont and CBS did have the means to link stations on the Eastern Seaboard through a combination of coaxial cable, microwave and over-the-air broadcast transmissions, expanding the potential audience for the World Series. The Series would air on eight stations in four markets: New York City, Philadelphia, Washington and Schenectady, New York.</p>
<p>While the Yankees-Dodgers series materialized, the televising of the Series almost didn’t. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Boy hawking souvenir programs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491966/original/file-20221026-21-dnupqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491966/original/file-20221026-21-dnupqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491966/original/file-20221026-21-dnupqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491966/original/file-20221026-21-dnupqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491966/original/file-20221026-21-dnupqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491966/original/file-20221026-21-dnupqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491966/original/file-20221026-21-dnupqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Broadcasters got their wish when the New York Yankees faced the Brooklyn Dodgers in the 1947 World Series.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/new-york-ny-yankee-and-dodger-fans-are-jamming-the-yankee-news-photo/515585048?phrase=boy%20selling%20souvenir%20programs&adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The predictable stumbling block was money. Baseball commissioner <a href="https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/chandler-happy">Albert B. “Happy” Chandler</a> wanted $100,000 for the television rights to the Series. Gillette, the sponsor of the radio coverage on the Mutual Broadcasting System, balked at the steep price given television’s limited penetration – only 50,000 to 60,000 U.S. households owned TVs at the time. The radio rights to reach the nation’s 29 million homes with radios had cost Mutual only $175,000. </p>
<p>Initial negotiations produced an offer of $60,000 from two sponsors: Gillette and the Ford Motor Company. New York’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Liebmann">Liebmann Breweries</a> offered to meet Chandler’s $100,000 demand, but the commissioner refused because he did not want beer ads when youngsters would be prominent members of the audience.</p>
<p>Even before a coverage deal had been finalized, bars, restaurants, television dealers, department stores, automobile dealerships and movie theaters started advertising the event, urging customers to come by to watch the World Series on television. And in the days and weeks leading up to the Fall Classic, the demand for television sets spiked. </p>
<p>The excitement pressured Chandler and the sponsors to reach a compromise. </p>
<p>Finally, on Sept. 26, just four days before Game 1 at Yankee Stadium, Chandler, Gillette and Ford <a href="https://worldradiohistory.com/Archive-BC/BC-1947/1947-10-06-BC.pdf">agreed to $65,000 for the rights to televise the World Series</a>. Production costs added another $35,000 to the sponsors’ bill. Mutual, Gillette and Ford also agreed to allow all three New York TV stations and those connected to them to broadcast the game, providing the widest possible exposure.</p>
<h2>An unexpectedly strong response</h2>
<p>Initial industry estimates had the Series reaching between 600,000 and 700,000 viewers, many of them located in the bars and restaurants where a substantial number of the nation’s first television receivers were located. </p>
<p>But that forecast ended up being conservative. Although home viewing for the seven games was substantial – 450,000 in a <a href="https://worldradiohistory.com/Archive-All-Music/Billboard/40s/1947/BB-1947-10-18.pdf">Hooper rating survey commissioned by Billboard</a> – the out-of-home viewing numbers were extraordinary: Another 3.5 million were estimated to have viewed the World Series in public locales. </p>
<p>Hooper’s survey found that an average of 82 customers showed up at each of these public locations to watch at least some of the World Series. Variety reported that bar owners saw a 500% increase in patrons during the Series, with some offering reservations to their regulars for a choice location near the TV set.</p>
<p>What viewers from those choice seats saw was primitive by today’s standards. The screen was usually small – 12 diagonal inches or less. The low-definition images were black and white and came from just a few cameras. No extreme close-ups were possible. There was no instant replay, so fans had to pay attention or the moment was lost. </p>
<p>But for the first time, they were seeing the World Series live, and for free.</p>
<h2>The TV industry’s World Series bump</h2>
<p>The audience liked what they saw. <a href="https://worldradiohistory.com/Archive-All-Music/Billboard/40s/1947/BB-1947-10-11.pdf">Billboard</a>, quoting The Newark Evening News, reported that TV “audiences hung on every turn of the video cameras and the ‘oohs and aahs’ at a slide or strikeout were something radio broadcasters would give their eye teeth to hear.” </p>
<p>It didn’t hurt that <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1947_WS.shtml">the 1947 World Series</a> ended up being so dramatic. The Yankees prevailed in seven games, but Brooklyn owned the two greatest moments.</p>
<p>In the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 4, Dodgers pitch hitter <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWjpOAy5zCM">Cookie Lavagetto ended Yankee starter Bill Biven’s no-hit bid</a> with a two-out hit, driving in two runs and sending the Dodgers to a 3-2 win. Then, in Game 6, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SrtxVs8uMI">Al Gionfriddo’s stunning catch of Joe DiMaggio’s deep drive to left field</a> helped preserve an 8-6 Dodgers victory, leading legendary Dodgers broadcaster <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Red_Barber.html?id=lWhgEAAAQBAJ">Red Barber</a> to exclaim, “Oh, Doctor!”</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/oWjpOAy5zCM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Cookie Lavagetto’s double won the game for the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 4.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Washington broadcasts even reached the White House, where President Harry S. Truman, his staff and the D.C. press corps watched some of the contests. The <a href="https://worldradiohistory.com/Archive-Televiser/Televiser-1947-09-10.pdf">industry magazine Televiser</a> reported an enthusiastic response from the White House viewers: “If TV can do as good a job as that on perhaps the most difficult of all subjects to televise, then it really has arrived.” </p>
<p>The public’s embrace of the World Series on television, along with the generous coverage of the telecasts by the press, provided an important boost to the nascent television industry. The Sporting News reported that the first televised World Series increased sales for new receivers in New York to levels not seen since the early days of radio. Similar reports came from dealers in Washington and Philadelphia.</p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Sarnoff">David Sarnoff</a>, chairman of RCA – which owed NBC and was a leading manufacturer of receivers – regarded television’s coverage of baseball and its crowning event, the World Series, as one of the most important factors in triggering the growth of the new medium. </p>
<p>Television makers, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Center_Field_Shot.html?id=6kPQhpS-X8YC">he concluded</a>, “had to have baseball games and if [baseball owners] had demanded millions for the rights, we would have had to give it to them.” </p>
<p>The television industry eventually did pay millions and then billions for those rights. <a href="https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2018/11/15/Media/MLB-Fox.aspx">Fox’s latest seven-year contract</a>, including rights to the World Series, pays Major League Baseball $5.1 billion. </p>
<p>Happy Chandler’s 1947 demand for a $100,000 seems like quite a bargain today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193006/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just five days before the first pitch of the 1947 World Series, a deal was struck to air the Series on television.James Walker, Emeritus Professor of Communication, Saint Xavier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1889682022-09-27T12:28:13Z2022-09-27T12:28:13ZTwo wrongs trying to make a right – makeup calls are common for MLB umpires, financial analysts and probably you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486637/original/file-20220926-15-iabcgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=144%2C0%2C5449%2C3783&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">After a mistake, people may try to correct the error with an intentional wrong judgment, this time in favor of the previously wronged party. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/nicky-lopez-of-the-kansas-city-royals-slides-into-second-news-photo/1392435258">Ed Zurga/Getty Images Sport via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Major League Baseball has been trying something new in recent seasons: <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/replay-review">instant replay for umpire calls</a>. After replay review, some erroneous calls on the field can be overturned. Baseball in its own fashion is acknowledging what sports fans have always known – officials make mistakes.</p>
<p>The most notable manifestation of this tendency is the all-too-common bad call and its companion, the makeup call. When an umpire makes a bad call, the only way they could presumably restore balance to the game is to make an additional bad call, but this time in favor of the wronged team. For example, an umpire may incorrectly call a “strike” on a pitch that was clearly outside the strike zone, only to make up for the error later by calling a “ball” on a pitch that clearly caught the edge of the strike zone.</p>
<p>Instant replay isn’t perfect and isn’t used in every situation, which leaves room for umpires to make bad calls and subsequent makeup calls. Beyond sports, there are lots of other ambiguous situations in everyday life where people try to make up for errors in judgment with makeup calls meant to restore the balance.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UP9FYAUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">We are organizational</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iv8X37AAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scientists</a> who are interested in how makeup calls operate. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=-TnT6tYAAAAJ">With</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ATbRISoAAAAJ&hl=en">our</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=M8oboDQAAAAJ">colleagues</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=orWHs5EAAAAJ">we</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=zh-TW&user=qRDqxYkAAAAJ">explored</a> this question in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0001026">research we published in 2022</a> in the Journal of Applied Psychology.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Umpire gesturing while calling a strike" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486653/original/file-20220926-16-o1ik9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What happens after an ump makes a bad call?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/umpire-calling-strike-royalty-free-image/79248503">Score by Aflo/Getty Images Plus via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Setting things right once mistakes are made</h2>
<p>Examining MLB playoff data from 2008-2014, we found that bad calls increased the likelihood of makeup calls. That is, when an umpire made an objectively erroneous call, it increased the chances of subsequent calls in favor of the team that was harmed.</p>
<p>For instance, when bad calls were made against pitchers, umpires were then more likely to call strikes. We also found that umpires became less likely to call strikes on a batter if they’d made bad calls against the batter’s teammates.</p>
<p>But as the stakes increased – meaning the call had greater importance to the overall outcome of the game – makeup calls became less likely. Makeup calls seemed to be aimed at righting prior wrongs and correcting for some level of unfairness, but not so much that they would have an impact on which team actually won or lost. </p>
<h2>Makeup calls in the psychology lab</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0001026">To investigate whether this tendency</a> toward the makeup call extends beyond Major League Baseball, we invited undergraduate volunteers into our lab. We paired them off and gave them a set of jars each containing random objects like bolts, screws and so on.</p>
<p>One student was the decision-maker and guessed if the number of objects in the jar was greater or less than 300. The second student was the judge and evaluated the other student’s decision based on their own estimation. The decision-maker received raffle tickets each time the judge sided with them, and judges received raffle tickets when they were correct in their evaluation of the decision-maker.</p>
<p>When judges received feedback that they had erred in their evaluation, they were more likely to make subsequent calls in favor of the decision-makers. Just as we saw in the big leagues, as the stakes increased – in this case, the odds of winning the raffle got better with each ticket awarded – makeup calls decreased. However, as the number of people affected by the bad call rose, so did the likelihood of makeup calls.</p>
<p>We also identified the critical role that guilt plays in makeup calls. Those who made a bad call reported feeling more guilty in a survey and then sought to rectify their mistake by issuing a makeup call. Hence those who experience more guilt were more likely to issue make-up calls.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Person with head in hand looking at laptop with downward trending graph" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486655/original/file-20220926-16-4w6fqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Financial analysts influence the decisions people make about buying and selling stocks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/pensive-and-sad-man-watching-the-graph-crash-royalty-free-image/1389538724">Ricardo Mendoza Garbayo/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bad calls with bigger stakes</h2>
<p>As when we focused on MLB umpires, our lab study relied on a game-ified context. To determine if what we saw translated to the real world, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0001026">examined the judgments of financial analysts</a>. We looked at their recommendations about which companies’ stocks, in their judgment, should be bought or sold. And we looked at their earnings forecasts that predict how they think individual stocks will perform.</p>
<p>When a firm performs worse than the analysts expected, or missed their earning expectation, the firm’s stock declines. In this way, analysts who are overly optimistic about a firm and provide an inflated earnings forecast may unintentionally harm a firm.</p>
<p>In response to an extreme earnings miss – meaning the firm performance was 50% or more worse than the analyst’s expectation – analysts can either devalue the company, resulting in a downgrade, or double down on their optimism and provide an upgrade. Given the firm’s extreme underperformance, providing an upgrade is likely an illogical choice – but it may make up for the damage done to the stock. Thus analyst forecasts and recommendations provide an optimal way for our research to capture makeup calls. </p>
<p>We found that when an analyst’s forecast significantly overestimated a company’s earnings, analysts were 73% more likely to then upgrade their recommendation. In other words, when a firm performed much worse than the analyst expected, they were more likely to recommend buying the stock rather than selling it, even though a downgrade makes more sense in this scenario. Analysts were more likely to issue a makeup call by upgrading the stock, issuing a buy recommendation that was too optimistic for a stock that underperformed expectations by at least 50%.</p>
<h2>Not something people want to talk about</h2>
<p>Finally, we wanted to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0001026">assess people’s everyday experiences of makeup calls</a> on the job. How aware are people of making bad calls and makeup calls, and how do they feel about these decisions when they happen at work?</p>
<p>We asked managers to recall a time when they made a decision or a bad call. Far fewer people were willing to admit they’d ever made a bad call, even when explicitly asked, compared to those who were willing to say they’d made a decision. We weren’t surprised, since people generally prefer to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/22/smarter-living/why-its-so-hard-to-admit-youre-wrong.html">avoid admitting or discussing their mistakes</a>.</p>
<p>This aversion seems to have extended to makeup calls as well. Those who did admit to making a bad call were not more or less likely to admit that they’d ever made a makeup call, even if they acknowledged feeling guilty for their mistake.</p>
<p>Most of our studies suggest that people do often fall back on makeup calls after an error in judgment. However, people get a little squirrelly when asked about those experiences and tend not to own up to this kind of make-it-right action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188968/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Erroneous calls increase the chances of subsequent calls in favor of the person who was harmed. What drives this behavior, and do people even recognize they’re doing it?Steven J. Hyde, Assistant Professor of Management, Boise State UniversityMeghan Thornton-Lugo, Assistant Professor of Industrial/Organizational Psychology, University of AkronLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1897602022-09-05T12:23:11Z2022-09-05T12:23:11ZAmerica’s next big labor battle could be Minor League Baseball<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482605/original/file-20220903-20-euu876.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=186%2C7%2C2172%2C1342&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Minor league players often endure lengthy bus trips.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/players-for-long-beachs-new-minor-league-baseball-team-the-news-photo/569176245?adppopup=true">Bob Chamberlin/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the Major League Baseball Players Association <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/sports/baseball/mlbpa-minor-league-union.html">sent union authorization cards</a> to approximately 5,000 minor league players in an attempt to unionize them, I was both surprised and not surprised at all. </p>
<p>If any industry is crying out for unionization, it’s this one. Minor league baseball players <a href="https://www.insidehook.com/article/sports/frontlines-battle-better-working-conditions-minor-league-baseball">are subject to some</a> of the poorest wages and most dreadful working conditions in America. Most of them toil for years before being washed out of the game <a href="https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-chances-of-a-drafted-baseball-player-making-the-major-leagues-a-quantitative-study/">without ever having reached</a> the promised land of the big leagues. </p>
<p>On the other hand, as someone <a href="https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p080975">who has written about baseball’s labor history</a>, I’ve noticed how nobody seemed to care all that much about minor leaguers until relatively recently. </p>
<p>Which begs the question: Why now? </p>
<p>Unionization, once a powerful weapon in the arsenal of the nation’s workforce, <a href="https://theconversation.com/america-is-in-the-middle-of-a-labor-mobilization-moment-with-self-organizers-at-starbucks-amazon-trader-joes-and-chipotle-behind-the-union-drive-189826">looks to be making a comeback</a> – at least marginally, after decades of declining membership and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/04/24/amazon-apple-google-union-busting/">strong-arm tactics</a> by management to defang it.</p>
<p>If unions can work their way into the strip mall coffee shop, why not Minor League Baseball? </p>
<h2>Big leaguers get their due</h2>
<p>It was hard enough to get major league players to work collectively on behalf of one another. </p>
<p><a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/marvin-miller/">Marvin Miller</a>, a former labor negotiator for the United Steel Workers of America, became the executive director of the <a href="https://www.mlbplayers.com/">Major League Baseball Players Association</a> in 1966. He soon realized that he faced a monumental task in encouraging big league, brand-name players to stand up for themselves against management. </p>
<p>By 1968 he was able to negotiate the first collective bargaining agreement for MLB players. <a href="https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/miller-marvin">Two years later</a>, he succeeded in not only raising the minimum major league salary 25% to US$10,000, but also securing for his players arbitration rights. <a href="https://baseballhall.org/discover/short-stops/free-agency-still-fuels-baseball">By 1976</a>, players with more than six years of service had won the right to become free agents and negotiate with any team of their choice. <a href="https://scholarworks.uni.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1120&context=mtie">Salaries skyrocketed</a>.</p>
<p>As the MLBPA scored victory after victory on the labor front, life for the minor leaguers remained as it had been, and the chasm between being a big leaguer and a minor leaguer grew more pronounced as the decades passed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man with mustache speaks in front of microphones." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482604/original/file-20220903-34667-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482604/original/file-20220903-34667-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482604/original/file-20220903-34667-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482604/original/file-20220903-34667-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482604/original/file-20220903-34667-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482604/original/file-20220903-34667-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482604/original/file-20220903-34667-pnlr93.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former MLBPA executive director Marvin Miller was able to score huge victories for big league ballplayers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/executive-director-marvin-miller-of-the-major-league-news-photo/90346172?adppopup=true">Focus on Sport/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over time, the grueling life of a minor leaguer became the stuff of legend, <a href="https://www.milb.com/news/beyond-bull-durham-10-movies-about-the-minors-313223890">explored in films</a> like “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0094812/">Bull Durham</a>” and “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0990413/">Sugar</a>.” Travel often remained as it always had been: by bus. Trips could last for days; it wasn’t considered cruel and unusual punishment to include clubs residing in <a href="https://www.milb.com/news/get-to-know-the-minor-league-teams-in-the-double-a-northeast">Maine, Virginia and Ohio</a> in the same league.</p>
<p>Players are only paid during the roughly five-and-a-half month season. According to <a href="https://www.advocatesforminorleaguers.com/">Advocates for Minor Leaguers</a> – which was subsumed by the MLBPA as part of the union organization push – until 2021, the minimum minor league salary came out to around $4,800, which amounted to about one-third of <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/topics/poverty-economic-mobility/poverty-guidelines/prior-hhs-poverty-guidelines-federal-register-references/2021-poverty-guidelines">the national poverty level of $12,880</a> for a single-person household. Meanwhile, the median minor league salary hovered around the national poverty level. On top of all this, players were responsible for securing and paying for their own housing.</p>
<h2>A weak attempt to appease</h2>
<p>In 2021, <a href="https://news.sportslogos.net/2021/02/15/a-breakdown-of-minor-league-baseballs-total-realignment-for-2021/baseball/">MLB began restructuring the minor leagues</a>, realigning and contracting them such that 43 out of 163 minor league clubs <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2020/12/09/mlb-announces-minor-league-affiliate-invites-some-teams-miss-cut/3805929001/">were eliminated</a>.</p>
<p>After this reorganization, MLB <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28702734/mlb-raising-minimum-salary-minor-leaguers-2021">finally upgraded minor league pay, at least somewhat</a>, <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2022/03/30/baseball-players-press-lawmakers-for-minor-league-labor-standards">increasing</a> the Single-A minimum salary from $290 to $500 per week and the Triple-A minimum salary from $502 to $700 per week over the course of the season. MLB also assumed responsibility for most player housing.</p>
<p>This improved things, but only incrementally. Most minor leaguers still toil for substandard wages under conditions that seem unfathomable given <a href="https://dodgerblue.com/average-mlb-team-payrolls-declined-despite-increasing-revenue/2021/12/29/">the gravy train</a> that is pretty much everything else Major League Baseball touches.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Baseball player slides into home plate to avoid a tag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482607/original/file-20220903-30403-3ahajh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482607/original/file-20220903-30403-3ahajh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482607/original/file-20220903-30403-3ahajh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482607/original/file-20220903-30403-3ahajh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482607/original/file-20220903-30403-3ahajh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482607/original/file-20220903-30403-3ahajh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482607/original/file-20220903-30403-3ahajh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some players in Single-A earn only $500 per week.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/catcher-alex-lavisky-of-the-lake-county-captains-prepares-news-photo/143087859?adppopup=true">David Dermer/Diamond Images via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To be sure, not all minor leaguers suffer under these circumstances. Early-round draft picks have the luxury of dipping into their <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/nationals/mlb-draft-2022-explaining-signing-bonuses-slot-value-and-more">substantial signing bonus money</a> to supplement their minor league incomes. But all minor league players remain subject to a litany of further indignities at the hands of their employers: Clubhouses – where players can spend up to 12 hours a day – <a href="https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/ben-verlander-minor-league-baseball-player-not-so-glamorous-life-behind-the-scenes">can be dingy shacks with dirt floors</a>. Off days are few and far between – <a href="https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2018/10/10/17919590/talking-about-the-grind-of-life-as-a-minor-league-baseball-player-with-minorleaguegrinders">sometimes as few as a single day per month</a> – and players are often made to feel disposable. </p>
<p>“Minor-league players need to be looked at as investments, not pawns,” one minor leaguer confided to a reporter for <a href="https://theathletic.com/2750280/2021/08/05/cockroaches-car-camping-poverty-wages-why-are-minor-leaguers-living-in-squalor/">The Athletic</a> in 2021. </p>
<p>“They act like we aren’t a part of the organization,” added another.</p>
<h2>The winds of change</h2>
<p>Suddenly, however, there’s been movement on the minor league front. </p>
<p>If nobody else saw this coming, MLB likely did. Why else did the league finally make incremental changes in 2021? </p>
<p>I doubt the MLB did this out of the goodness of their hearts. I believe they did it because, like Bob Dylan, they didn’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind was blowing. </p>
<p>In July, MLB settled <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/sports/baseball/mlb-lawsuit-pay.html">a $185 million class-action lawsuit</a> over minor league pay, <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/07/20/rob-manfred-minor-league-wages-all-star-game">agreeing to permit clubs</a> to compensate these players for their work during spring training.</p>
<p>Formerly, clubs were prohibited from doing so. Now they’re free to compensate their players for this time – if they so choose. </p>
<p>The MLBPA could sense the shifting winds as well. </p>
<p>After decades of silence, people with influence were at last beginning to take note of what was going on down on the farm. Reporters started digging, and former players started speaking up, <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2062307-an-inside-look-into-the-harsh-conditions-of-minor-league-baseball">publishing thoughtful and incisive pieces</a> detailing not only <a href="https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/ben-verlander-minor-league-baseball-player-not-so-glamorous-life-behind-the-scenes">MLB’s back-of-the-hand treatment</a> of minor league players, but also how the MLBPA <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/6/5/17251534/mlb-draft-minor-league-baseball-union-phpa">often ignored</a> or sold out their minor league counterparts in labor negotiations.</p>
<p>And then, of course, there have been the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/27/us-union-boom-starbucks-amazon">high-profile unionization efforts</a> at places such as Starbucks, Amazon, Apple, Chipotle and Trader Joe’s, which signaled that something was clearly afoot beyond the bushes.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/398303/approval-labor-unions-highest-point-1965.aspx">a recent Gallup poll</a>, Americans’ support for unions is not merely ticking upwards – it’s at a 57-year high. </p>
<h2>The real work begins</h2>
<p>The unionization effort is far from a done deal; the MLBPA merely distributed union authorization cards. Now it’s up to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mlb-sports-minor-league-baseball-spencer-jones-6c02bdb34e1f221fc21b3e230eeddf78">a critical mass of minor league players</a> to vote in favor of unionization. </p>
<p>How many of these highly vulnerable minor leaguers are going to be willing to risk angering the people who hold their precarious futures in their hands? How many of them are going to be willing to put their lifelong dreams on the line for a union card? How many are confident enough that their skills are such that they won’t be released in retaliation for organizing?</p>
<p>All I know for sure is that minor league baseball today finds itself in a place it has never been before: on the precipice of real, profound change. </p>
<p>Depending on how things turn out, perhaps one day the reality of being a professional ballplayer might actually resemble the fantasy so many young ballplayers have clung to for generations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189760/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mitchell Nathanson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If any industry is crying out for unionization, it’s this one.Mitchell Nathanson, Professor of Law, Villanova School of LawLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882642022-08-06T12:21:38Z2022-08-06T12:21:38ZHow Vin Scully scored his Dodgers gig at 22 years old<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477903/original/file-20220805-20-qfxk61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C2968%2C2317&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Barber called Scully, pictured in a broadcast booth prior to a Brooklyn Dodgers game, 'the son I never had.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/announcer-vin-scully-of-the-los-angeles-dodgers-poses-for-a-news-photo/482028781?adppopup=true">Sporting News via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Vin Scully, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/02/sports/baseball/vin-scully-dead.html">who died on Aug. 2, 2022</a>, is widely viewed as the greatest baseball announcer of all time. But for an earlier generation, his mentor, Red Barber, held that distinction.</p>
<p>In our recent biography “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Red_Barber/lWhgEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0">Red Barber: The Life and Legacy of a Broadcasting Legend</a>,” we uncovered moving private letters and public references documenting the rich personal bonds between these two great voices of the game. </p>
<p>In 1939, Barber brought daily radio broadcasts of Dodgers baseball to Brooklyn’s fans for the first time. By the time Scully arrived in 1950, Barber – known as “<a href="https://archive.seattletimes.com/archive/?date=19921022&slug=1520043">the Old Redhead</a>” – was the toast of Flatbush. </p>
<p>For a combined century – 33 years for Barber and 67 for Scully – the two blessed baseball fans with some of the sharpest word pictures ever painted of the grand old game. Together in the Brooklyn booth for four crucial years, from 1950 to 1953, they forged a relationship that proved to be both demanding and gratifying.</p>
<h2>The chance of a lifetime</h2>
<p>After Scully graduated with a degree in English from Fordham University in 1949, he papered East Coast radio stations with applications. <a href="https://vault.si.com/vault/1964/05/04/the-transistor-kid">He eventually scored an interview with CBS Radio</a>, where Barber was director of sports. Barber came away impressed, but there were no openings at the time.</p>
<p>Barber later phoned Vin Scully when, at the last minute, he needed a reporter to cover a college football contest at Fenway Park in Boston for CBS College Football Roundup. Scully’s mother answered the phone and took the message for Vin that <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Voices_of_the_Game/oNBwQgAACAAJ?hl=en">“Red Skelton” wanted to talk to him about a job</a> – confusing Barber with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Skelton">the popular entertainer</a>.</p>
<p>Fortunately, Scully figured out who was calling. He hustled to the park, only to learn there was no room for him in the press box. With only a light topcoat to defend himself against the cruel New England elements, he had to call the entire game from the roof, braving the winds on a chilly fall day with only a 60-watt light bulb to warm his hands. Barber, initially unaware of Scully’s plight, later wrote that when he learned his announcer had called the game from the roof, he was impressed by the young broadcaster’s stamina and even more impressed that Scully had never complained about the brutal conditions.</p>
<p>When <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ2EG3t3fEI">Ernie Harwell</a>, who would become the legendary voice of the Detroit Tigers, left the Brooklyn Dodgers’ broadcast booth for the New York Giants, Red Barber needed to find a replacement. He decided to go with the young broadcaster <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00067187/00001/downloads">who had so impressed him</a> – later describing Scully as “a pretty appealing young green pea … a boy who had something on the ball.”</p>
<p>So Vin Scully, just 22 years old, <a href="https://dodgers.mlblogs.com/on-this-date-70-years-ago-today-vin-scully-joins-the-booth-a66648e399e8">was given the chance of a lifetime</a>, to broadcast the games of the Brooklyn Dodgers, the National League’s most successful team. </p>
<p>But this golden opportunity was challenging in ways Scully did not foresee.</p>
<h2>Barber takes Scully under his wing</h2>
<p>Red Barber, who early in life planned to be a college professor, was a tough grader. He demanded a lot of himself, and he held those who worked with him to just as high a standard. </p>
<p>When Vin first entered the Dodgers broadcast booth, Barber told the young man that his job was to do whatever Red and his colleague Connie Desmond didn’t want to do. He also made it clear that any Scully errors would be corrected on air for all to hear. When Barber saw Scully drinking a beer with his pregame sandwich – a common practice at the time – <a href="https://ufdc.ufl.edu/AA00067191/00001/downloads">he told Vin he never wanted to see him do it again</a>.</p>
<p>Barber was no teetotaler – far from it; leisure hours drinks were something he treasured. But he believed a broadcaster should never have a drink, even a beer, on the job. Barber reasoned if Scully made an error, something inevitable for a broadcaster ad-libbing for hours at a time, anyone who saw him sipping the press room brew would conclude that alcohol had clouded his performance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man holding microphone interviews baseball player." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477902/original/file-20220805-7920-unk7jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477902/original/file-20220805-7920-unk7jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477902/original/file-20220805-7920-unk7jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477902/original/file-20220805-7920-unk7jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477902/original/file-20220805-7920-unk7jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477902/original/file-20220805-7920-unk7jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477902/original/file-20220805-7920-unk7jl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Barber could be a hard-driving boss.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-sports-journalist-red-barber-interviews-american-news-photo/57394862?adppopup=true">Robert Riger/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of Red’s broadcasting mantras was <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Broadcasters/bpFZAAAAMAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0">pregame preparation</a>. So before one game, when Scully told his mentor that a Dodgers’ regular would be out of the lineup, Barber demanded to know why. Scully told him he had no idea. To Barber, that was unacceptable.</p>
<p>Scully quickly realized that he needed to know the “whys”; he had to get to the stadium early and spend time talking with managers and players, absorbing compelling facts and stories to keep listeners engaged during slow stretches of each contest.</p>
<p>The delicate bonds that develop between any mentor and mentee, though often fruitful, almost always involve some degree of resentment and frustration, likely because each member of the pair has so much vested in winning the respect and affection of the other. Some of Barber’s barbs must have stung. But throughout his career Scully always credited Red for instilling in him the discipline and values of a professional baseball announcer. <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Red_Barber/lWhgEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0">He claimed</a> that the greatest virtue of Red as a mentor “was the fact that he cared. I wasn’t just another kid in the booth, just another announcer. … He made sure that my work habits were good, and he rode me if I drifted away from his ideal of the right way to work.”</p>
<h2>Scully in the spotlight</h2>
<p>In 1953, Barber left the Brooklyn booth after a dispute over his pay. </p>
<p>Ahead of that season’s World Series between the Dodgers and the New York Yankees, the Series’ sponsor, Gillette, offered Barber only $200 per game, take it or leave it. Barber left it, and when he did not get the support he wanted from Dodgers owner Walter O’Malley, he decided to sit out the Series and sign with the Yankees for the following season.</p>
<p>Gillette then turned to Scully, asking him if he’d announce the Series. Scully called Red seeking his permission. Barber was genuinely moved by Scully’s request, given that his permission clearly was not needed. </p>
<p>All of a sudden, Scully, at the age of 25, was thrust onto the national stage. He remains the youngest person to ever call a World Series. Two years later, he announced the Brooklyn Dodgers’ only World Series win, and in 1958 he moved with the club to Los Angeles, where he would call games for the next 59 seasons.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xCS8jmV0WiE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Vin Scully recaps the 1953 World Series in one of the earliest recordings of the legendary broadcaster.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Barber and Scully maintained an affectionate dialogue for the remainder of Red’s life.</p>
<p>When Barber and Mel Allen were honored by the National Baseball Hall of Fame as the first recipients of the <a href="https://baseballhall.org/discover-more/awards/887">Ford C. Frick Award</a>, presented yearly to a broadcaster for “major contributions to baseball,” <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Red_Barber/lWhgEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0">Scully wrote his old teacher</a>, “I know as well as anyone alive what a true artist you were behind the mike. There is a great deal of you in anything I do well in play-by-play, and it will live in me as long as I am working.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/10/23/obituaries/red-barber-baseball-voice-of-summer-is-dead-at-84.html">When Barber died in 1992</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=lWhgEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA421&lpg=PA421&dq=%22radio%27s+first+poet%22+vin+scully+reader%27s+digest&source=bl&ots=eKTwjzRZ9i&sig=ACfU3U20PiKT9ghjq_j_phD7Wi3yq3zg8g&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwipi_j9srD5AhXvGFkFHaZ5AIQQ6AF6BAgCEAM#v=onepage&q=%22radio's%20first%20poet%22%20vin%20scully%20reader's%20digest&f=false">Scully penned a tribute</a> in Reader’s Digest, calling him “radio’s first poet … and the most honorable man I ever met.” </p>
<p>At Barber’s funeral, Scully <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=lWhgEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA416&lpg=PA416&dq=%22Now+don%E2%80%99t+you+talk+about+me+during+the+game.+These+people+aren%E2%80%99t+tuning+in+to+hear+about+me.+Talk+about+the+game.%22&source=bl&ots=eKTwjyO0aa&sig=ACfU3U0RPFLsb-840mAH9SYnTQ8e10yLOQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjBsqDXg7D5AhWthIkEHSHWAt0Q6AF6BAgCEAM#v=onepage&q=%22Now%20don%E2%80%99t%20you%20talk%20about%20me%20during%20the%20game.%20These%20people%20aren%E2%80%99t%20tuning%20in%20to%20hear%20about%20me.%20Talk%20about%20the%20game.%22&f=false">told a reporter</a> that he was preparing to announce the fourth game of the World Series when he first learned of Red’s death. After absorbing the sad news, he began hearing his old mentor chiding him: “Now don’t you talk about me during the game. These people aren’t tuning in to hear about me. Talk about the game.”</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to correct the year Scully graduated from Fordham.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188264/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Legendary broadcaster Red Barber took a chance on Scully when he asked him to be an announcer for the Brooklyn Dodgers. Three years later, Scully was the voice of the World Series.James Walker, Past Executive Director, International Association for Communication and Sport, Emeritus Professor of Communication, Saint Xavier UniversityJudith R. Hiltner, Emeritus Professor of English, Saint Xavier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1864482022-07-12T13:44:03Z2022-07-12T13:44:03ZHotter temperatures increase violent behaviour in Major League Baseball<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472874/original/file-20220706-5011-8a7psa.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C10%2C3529%2C2479&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Atlanta Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte argues with home plate umpire Doug Eddings during a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ralph Freso)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We normally associate the arrival of warmer weather with positive experiences, such as vacations, walks on the beach and evenings eating on outdoor patios with friends. However, exposure to heat can also generate negative feelings that lead to socially inappropriate behaviour, such as excessive violence in sports.</p>
<p>When it is too hot, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2601(00)80004-0">people become irritable and are more likely to believe that others are being hostile toward them</a>. In response to these negative feelings, some people engage in violent and inappropriate behaviours.</p>
<p>This is especially true in the world of sports, where <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8716387/">emotions already run high due to the competitive nature of the activity</a>. An increase in temperature can become the straw that breaks the camel’s back and leads to violent behaviour in situations where it is neither desirable nor tolerated.</p>
<p>As researchers interested in how sports generate socially unacceptable behaviours, such as violence, we have been studying the influence of temperature on violent behaviour in Major League Baseball (MLB).</p>
<h2>Violence in baseball</h2>
<p>Violence is an appropriate behaviour in some sports. For example, in ice hockey and football, hitting an opponent to stop his or her progress may be the right thing to do to help your team win. However, the same act is wrong in other sports, such as baseball, where the rules prohibit violence.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7DEN26sRIkk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Some sports tolerate violent acts, but they are prohibited in baseball.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In baseball, violence automatically results in the offending person being thrown out of the game. This is true for both physical violence, such as intentionally throwing the ball at an opponent, and verbal violence, such as insulting an umpire.</p>
<p>There are several factors that can lead baseball players and coaches to engage in violent behaviours. The desire to avenge a teammate who has been assaulted, <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-analysis-of-nearly-4-million-pitches-shows-just-how-many-mistakes-umpires-make-114874">the perception that the umpire has made an unfair decision</a> and anger over an impending loss are just a few examples.</p>
<p>But in addition to these contextual factors, there is the question of how hot it is outside.</p>
<h2>The influence of temperature on violent behaviour</h2>
<p>The hypothesis that heat increases the level of violence in baseball has been explored by researchers in studies in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0146167291175013">1991</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0956797611399292">2011</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ab.21726">2017</a>. The results of all three of these research projects suggest that as temperatures increase, so does the likelihood of observing a specific violent behaviour — throwing the ball at an opponent.</p>
<p>However, it was not clear whether this is the case for other observable violent behaviours in baseball.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Sportsmen warm up in a stadium" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470097/original/file-20220621-23-jyzjfd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470097/original/file-20220621-23-jyzjfd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470097/original/file-20220621-23-jyzjfd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470097/original/file-20220621-23-jyzjfd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470097/original/file-20220621-23-jyzjfd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470097/original/file-20220621-23-jyzjfd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470097/original/file-20220621-23-jyzjfd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A major scuffle during a game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(YouTube)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To determine if high temperatures have the same effect on all violent behaviours in Major League Baseball, we collected data from over 29,000 games where <a href="https://www.retrosheet.org/Ejecdata.txt">2,322 people (players and coaches) were ejected as a result of various physical and verbal violent behaviours, between the 2008 and 2019 seasons</a>.</p>
<p>From this data, we were able to observe that as the temperature increases, so does the likelihood of a player or coach being thrown out of a game. As an example, the probability of being ejected from the game in Major League Baseball is less than five per cent when it is 0 C, but six per cent for a temperature of 20 C and greater than seven per cent when the thermometer reads 40 C.</p>
<p>The results are similar for physical and verbal abuse, allowing us to conclude that heat has a similar effect on different types of abuse.</p>
<h2>Preventing violence</h2>
<p>It is impossible to control the temperature outside in the hopes of reducing violent behaviour during baseball games, so the knowledge gained through our research project should be used to educate players and coaches on the potential effects of extreme heat.</p>
<p>Since excessive heat makes people more irritable and causes them to believe that others are more hostile, baseball players should learn that their aggressive impulses may be due to the temperature. By being better informed about the source of their discomfort, they may avoid reacting violently toward others.</p>
<p>Considering that global warming is expected to increase temperature extremes in the coming years, it is essential to consider the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00121-2">impacts of heat on socially unacceptable behaviours</a>, such as excessive violence in sports. Although heat is not solely responsible for the adoption of aggressive behaviours, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111%2F1467-8721.00109">it is still an important factor to include in the equation</a>. Our results add to those of many scientists who have already observed the role of heat in increasing violent behaviours, <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/1989-36724-001.html">such as road rage, domestic violence and major crimes</a>.</p>
<p>By improving the ability to control negative emotions when the mercury rises excessively, people will be able to enjoy the benefits that come with good weather, such as the incomparable atmosphere of a baseball stadium on a beautiful summer day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186448/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joël Guérette has received funding from the Fonds de recherche du Québec - Société et culture.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caroline Blais has received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and Canada Research Chairs.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Fiset has received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>High temperatures make baseball players and coaches more irritable, and are associated with an increase in violence.Joël Guérette, Candidat au Ph. D. en psychologie cheminement recherche - profil psychologie sociale, Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO)Caroline Blais, Professor in Psychology, Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO)Daniel Fiset, Professor in Psychology, Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1816622022-04-25T12:12:24Z2022-04-25T12:12:24ZThe Cleveland Indians changed their team name – what’s holding back the Atlanta Braves?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459145/original/file-20220421-24-ondbdm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C2977%2C1854&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Atlanta Braves fans perform the 'tomahawk chop' during a playoff game in 2004.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fans-of-the-atlanta-braves-do-the-tomahawk-chop-during-news-photo/51433584?adppopup=true"> Streeter Lecka/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In October 1995, as the Cleveland Indians and Atlanta Braves prepared to <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1995_WS.shtml">face off in the World Series</a>, a group of Native Americans rallied outside Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium to protest what they called both teams’ racist names and mascots. Some protesters carried signs, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1995/10/22/protesters-single-out-nicknames/5ca89d46-0ecb-46b3-a979-fbe6fa497af6/">including one that said</a>, “Human beings as mascots is not politically incorrect. It is morally wrong.”</p>
<p>They marched outside the ballpark, where some vendors were selling the foam tomahawks that Braves fans wave during the “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGuChxSvuh8">tomahawk chop</a>” – a cheer in which they mimic a Native American war chant while making a hammering motion with their arms. </p>
<p>It wasn’t until 2018 that the Indians <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22255143/cleveland-indians-removing-chief-wahoo-logo-uniforms">officially removed their logo</a>, a cartoonish Native American named Chief Wahoo, from their merchandise, banners and ballpark. In 2020 the owners agreed to change the Indians name itself. For the 2022 season, <a href="https://www.nbc15.com/2021/07/23/meet-guardians-cleveland-indians-announce-new-nickname/">they would begin using the new name</a>, the Guardians.</p>
<p>The Atlanta Braves’ owners, however, have dug in their heels, refusing to replace a name that many Americans – including Native Americans – find offensive and derogatory.</p>
<p>In July 2020 – in the midst of the nationwide protests around racism, sparked by the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police – <a href="https://wamu.org/story/20/07/11/the-racial-justice-reckoning-over-sports-team-names-is-spreading/">some Atlanta fans again urged the team to change its name</a>. In response, the Braves’ brass <a href="https://twitter.com/uniwatch/status/1282360397195075585?lang=en">sent a letter</a> to season ticket holders, insisting, “We will always be the Atlanta Braves.”</p>
<p>The insistence on preserving the team name – along with fan traditions like the tomahawk chop – is even more glaring given the city’s links to the civil rights movement.</p>
<h2>The road to Atlanta</h2>
<p>For many years, NFL football team owner Dan Snyder refused to change the name of his Washington Redskins – perhaps one of the more egregiously racist team names in any sport. But in 2020 <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/timeline-washington-football-teams-name-change-saga">he finally relented</a>, yielding to pressure from investors and corporate sponsors. The team played as the Washington Football Team for two seasons <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/06/1078571919/washington-commanders-name-change-native-americans">before becoming the Commanders</a> this year.</p>
<p>However, when professional sports teams do change their names, <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/pro-sports-teams-changed-their-name-without-changing-cities">it’s usually done for marketing reasons</a> rather than social ones. </p>
<p>The NFL’s Tennessee Oilers rebranded themselves the Tennessee Titans in 1999, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays became the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008 and the New Orleans Hornets turned into the Pelicans in 2013.</p>
<p>The Braves have had their own merry-go-round with team names.</p>
<p>The story begins in 1876, when Boston’s professional baseball team was known as the Red Stockings. In 1883, they became the Beaneaters and kept that name until 1907, when new owner <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1909/06/20/archives/baseball-president-dead-george-dovey-of-boston-passes-away-on-a.html">George Dovey</a> changed it to the Doves, a tribute to himself. In 1911, William Russell bought the team and renamed it <a href="https://www.baseball-almanac.com/mgrtmab7.shtml">the Rustlers</a>, also after himself. But a year later, James Gaffney, a New York City alderman, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/06/26/opinion/l-what-atlanta-braves-share-with-boss-tweed-980393.html">purchased the team</a>. </p>
<p>Gaffney was part of Tammany Hall, a New York City political club named after <a href="https://www.ustwp.org/government/boards-commissions/historical-advisory-board/chief-tamanend/">Tamanend</a>, a Delaware Indian chief. Tammany Hall used a Native American wearing a headdress <a href="https://bkskarch.com/2020/11/17/go-inside-the-new-glass-dome-atop-union-squares-tammany-hall/">as its emblem</a> and <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/atlanta-braves-team-name-origin">referred to its members</a> as “braves.” So Gaffney gave his team a new moniker. From thenceforth they would be known as the Boston Braves. </p>
<p>In 1935, <a href="https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/bob-quinn/">Bob Quinn</a> purchased the Braves after a season in which they sported the worst record in baseball: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BSN/1935.shtml">38 wins and 115 losses</a>. Hoping to give the team a fresh start, he renamed it the <a href="https://massachusettsbaseballhistory.com/2021/04/08/bostons-original-blue-and-yellow-team/">Boston Bees</a>, but the team continued to perform poorly. In 1940, construction magnate <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1972/04/17/archives/lou-perini-owner-who-took-braves-to-milwaukee-is-dead.html">Lou Perini</a> bought the team and changed the name back to the Braves. </p>
<p>In 1953, Perini moved the Braves to Milwaukee – the first team relocation since 1903. Nine years later, he sold the Braves to some Chicago investors led by <a href="https://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/former-braves-owner-bill-bartholomay-who-moved-team-atlanta-dies/B43tnVnOAgQbjNhi3ptEGN/">William Bartholomay</a>, who quickly began looking to move the team to a larger television market. </p>
<h2>A commitment to improving race relations</h2>
<p>Atlanta Mayor <a href="https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/government-politics/ivan-allen-jr-1911-2003/">Ivan Allen Jr.</a> courted Bartholomay. To lure the team, he persuaded Fulton County to build Atlanta–Fulton County Stadium <a href="https://www.todayingeorgiahistory.org/tih-georgia-day/atlanta-fulton-county-stadium">for US$18 million</a> – equal to $161 million today.</p>
<p>But Hank Aaron, the Braves’ biggest star, was reluctant to move to Atlanta. </p>
<p>Although it promoted itself as an enlightened place – the city had recently rebranded itself as “<a href="https://www.nps.gov/features/malu/feat0002/wof/ivan_allen.htm">The City Too Busy to Hate</a>” – Atlanta <a href="https://www.facingsouth.org/2015/05/the-most-racially-segregated-cities-in-the-south.html">was still highly segregated</a>. It was the capital of a state represented by segregationist politicians such as long-serving Sens. <a href="https://faculty1.coloradocollege.edu/%7Ebloevy/toEndAllSegregation/ToEndAllSegregation-008.pdf">Richard Russell</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/22/us/herman-talmadge-georgia-senator-and-governor-dies-at-88.html">Herman Talmadge</a>. Aaron, a native of Mobile, Alabama, had no interest in returning to the Deep South racism of his birthplace. </p>
<p>The NAACP and Urban League asked Aaron to give the South a second chance. <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/commentary/news/story?id=6015125">Aaron met with Martin Luther King Jr.</a>, who convinced him that bringing the Braves to Atlanta would help the civil rights cause.</p>
<p>Before he would agree to join the Braves in Atlanta, however, Aaron insisted that Fulton County Stadium seating and facilities be desegregated. Mayor Allen shared that view. <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/commentary/news/story?id=6015125">The city and the Braves complied</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man wearing blue baseball jersey sits in a dugout bench." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459137/original/file-20220421-12-x61miq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459137/original/file-20220421-12-x61miq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459137/original/file-20220421-12-x61miq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459137/original/file-20220421-12-x61miq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459137/original/file-20220421-12-x61miq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459137/original/file-20220421-12-x61miq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459137/original/file-20220421-12-x61miq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Slugger Hank Aaron went along with the team to Atlanta only after some lobbying from Martin Luther King Jr.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/outfielder-hank-aaron-of-the-atlanta-braves-relaxes-in-the-news-photo/51455615?adppopup=true">Focus on Sport via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jimmy Carter, who served as Georgia’s governor from 1971 to 1975 before being elected president, <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/commentary/news/story?id=6015125">recalled that</a> having a major league team in Atlanta “gave us the opportunity to be known for something that wasn’t going to be a national embarrassment.” Carter said that Aaron “was the first Black man that white fans in the South cheered for.” </p>
<h2>The chief and the chop</h2>
<p>As the Braves worked to mend relations with the city’s Black community, they didn’t seem to consider how their marketing efforts might offend Native Americans. </p>
<p>In 1966, the year the Braves moved to Atlanta, the team adopted a mascot, <a href="https://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/whatever-happened-chief-noc-homa-levi-walker/ZoBlkrVjEyQbfa85BZbs8H/">Chief Noc-A-Homa</a>, who danced around a teepee behind the left field fence dressed in Native American garb and occasionally performed on the field.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man in Native American garb spreads his arms." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459134/original/file-20220421-25-phqaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459134/original/file-20220421-25-phqaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459134/original/file-20220421-25-phqaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459134/original/file-20220421-25-phqaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459134/original/file-20220421-25-phqaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459134/original/file-20220421-25-phqaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/459134/original/file-20220421-25-phqaml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Atlanta Braves retired mascot Chief Noc-a-Homa in 1985.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-1983-file-photo-of-chief-noc-a-homa-the-atlanta-braves-news-photo/838580900?adppopup=true">Denver Post via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Under public pressure, <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1986/01/19/571286.html?pageNumber=352">the team abandoned</a> Chief Noc-A-Homa in 1985. But a few years later, Braves organist Carolyn King started playing the “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQOs0m3wTBY">tomahawk song</a>”
before Braves batters stepped up to the plate. By 1991, the fans had fully adopted the chop.</p>
<p>Today, many fans – not to mention many Native Americans – cringe at the music and the chop. To them, it reflects a stereotypical image of Native Americans as violent and uncivilized, <a href="https://deadline.com/2020/10/native-american-writers-urge-industry-to-make-amends-for-stereotypical-portrayals-inadequate-representation-1234595944/">similar to those</a> that appeared <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442229624/Native-Americans-on-Network-TV-Stereotypes-Myths-and-the-">on TV</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/481668">in movies</a> for many years. </p>
<p>In 2019, Ryan Helsley, a pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals and a member of the Cherokee Nation, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/10/05/cardinals-pitcher-calls-braves-tomahawk-chop-disappointing-disrespectful/">took issue with the tomahawk chop</a> after pitching against the Braves.</p>
<p>“I think it’s a misrepresentation of the Cherokee people or Native Americans in general. Just depicts them in this kind of caveman-type people way who aren’t intellectual,” Helsley told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.</p>
<p>“They are a lot more than that,” he said. “It devalues us and how we’re perceived in that way, or used as mascots.” </p>
<h2>A name that honors the region’s history</h2>
<p>The Braves are now owned by Liberty Media Corp., a $17 billion conglomerate controlled by Chair John C. Malone, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/profile/john-malone/?sh=529309001505">who is personally worth $7.5 billion</a>. Only pressure from the Braves’ corporate sponsors, fans, other teams, and even some players will likely push Malone to make a change. </p>
<p>After Aaron died last year, <a href="https://www.11alive.com/article/sports/mlb/atlanta-braves/atlanta-braves-name-change-hammers-hank-aaron/85-bc8ad39e-0199-4729-a024-0ea180929896">some Braves fans urged the owners</a> to change the name to the “Hammers” to honor the slugger who was nicknamed “Hammerin’ Hank” or just “The Hammer.” His boosters pointed out that it would be simple to put a hammer in place of the tomahawk, which now adorns all Braves uniforms and the team logo. Some version of the cheer could even remain, but with hammers, not tomahawks. </p>
<p>But I’d like to suggest a team name that would make an even bigger statement: the Atlanta Kings, in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. King grew up in Atlanta, attended Morehouse College, and spent most of his adult life there. His childhood home, the church he served as minister and the King Center, an educational nonprofit, are all located in Atlanta.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 150,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-150ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>King understood the importance of baseball in American culture. He befriended and <a href="https://theconversation.com/jackie-robinson-was-a-radical-dont-listen-to-the-sanitized-version-of-history-179732">worked closely with Jackie Robinson during the civil rights movement</a>. And he helped bring the team to Atlanta.</p>
<p>I think it would be fitting for the Braves to become the Kings and replace the tomahawk with a crown. Or, in the spirit of inclusion, the team could be rechristened as the Atlanta Hammer Kings. And the team could adopt Pete Seeger’s easy-to-sing “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO39e5Uznu4">If I Had a Hammer</a>” as its theme song.</p>
<p>All it would take is some political courage.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181662/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Dreier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The insistence on preserving the team name – along with fan traditions like the ‘tomahawk chop’ – is even more glaring given the city’s links to the civil rights movement.Peter Dreier, E.P. Clapp Distinguished Professor of Politics, Occidental CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1797322022-04-14T12:15:48Z2022-04-14T12:15:48ZJackie Robinson was a radical – don’t listen to the sanitized version of history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457776/original/file-20220412-17-7a6boo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=74%2C31%2C1838%2C1500&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jackie Robinson addresses civil rights supporters protesting outside the 1964 GOP National Convention.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/baseball-star-jackie-robinson-addresses-civil-rights-news-photo/576842774?adppopup=true">Ted Streshinsky/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In our new book, “<a href="https://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/nebraska/9781496217776/">Baseball Rebels: The Players, People, and Social Movements That Shook Up the Game and Changed America</a>,” Rob Elias and I profile the many iconoclasts, dissenters and mavericks who defied baseball’s and society’s establishment. </p>
<p>But none took as many risks – and had as big an impact – as Jackie Robinson. Though Robinson was a fierce competitor, an outstanding athlete and a deeply <a href="https://sabr.org/journal/article/jackie-robinsons-faith-sustained-him-during-unrelenting-turmoil/">religious man</a>, the aspect of his legacy that often gets glossed over is that he was also a radical.</p>
<p>The sanitized version of the Jackie Robinson story goes something like this: He was a remarkable athlete who, <a href="https://sourcesofinsight.com/jackie-robinson-story-of-self-control/">with his unusual level of self-control</a>, was the perfect person to break baseball’s color line. In the face of jeers and taunts, he was able to put his head down and let his play do the talking, becoming a symbol of the promise of a racially integrated society.</p>
<p>On April 15 in 2022, marking the 75th anniversary of Jackie Robinson’s breaking baseball’s color line, Major League Baseball celebrated the occasion with great fanfare – with <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=723832598808868">tributes</a>, movies, <a href="https://www.espnfrontrow.com/2022/03/jackie-to-me-go-inside-espns-10-part-video-series-honoring-jackie-robinsons-legacy/">TV specials</a>, <a href="https://nmaahc.si.edu/events/75th-anniversary-and-celebration-jackie-robinson-day">museum exhibits</a> and <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/jackie-robinson-75th-anniversary-symposium">symposia</a>. </p>
<p>I wonder, however, about the extent to which these celebrations will downplay his activism during and after his playing career. Will they delve into the forces arrayed against Robinson – the players, fans, reporters, politicians and baseball executives who scorned his outspoken views on race? Will any Jackie Robinson Day events mention that, toward the end of his life, he wrote that he had become so disillusioned with the country’s racial progress that he couldn’t stand for the flag and sing the national anthem?</p>
<h2>Laying the groundwork</h2>
<p>Robinson was a rebel before he broke baseball’s color line. </p>
<p>When he was a soldier during World War II, his superiors sought to keep him out of officer candidate school. He persevered and became a second lieutenant. But in 1944, while assigned to a training camp at Fort Hood in Texas, <a href="https://www.americanheritage.com/court-martial-jackie-robinson">he refused to move to the back of an army bus</a> when the white driver ordered him to do so. </p>
<p>Robinson faced trumped-up charges of insubordination, disturbing the peace, drunkenness, conduct unbecoming an officer and refusing to obey the orders of a superior officer. Voting by secret ballot, the nine military judges – only one of them Black – found Robinson not guilty. In November, he was honorably discharged from the Army.</p>
<p>Describing the ordeal, Robinson later wrote, “It was a small victory, for I had learned that I was in two wars, one against the foreign enemy, the other against prejudice at home.”</p>
<p>Three years later, Robinson would suit up for the Dodgers. </p>
<p>His arrival didn’t occur in a vacuum. It marked the culmination of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-politics-played-a-major-role-in-the-signing-of-jackie-robinson-56890">more than a decade of protests</a> to desegregate the national pastime. It was a political victory brought about by a persistent and progressive movement that confronted powerful business interests that were reluctant – even opposed – to bring about change. </p>
<p>Beginning in the 1930s, the movement mobilized a broad coalition of organizations – the Black press, civil rights groups, the Communist Party, progressive white activists, left-wing unions and radical politicians – that waged a <a href="https://sabr.org/journal/article/before-jackie-robinson-baseballs-civil-rights-movement/">sustained campaign</a> to integrate baseball. </p>
<h2>Biting his tongue, biding his time</h2>
<p>This protest movement set the stage for Brooklyn Dodgers executive Branch Rickey to sign Robinson to a contract in 1945. Robinson spent the 1946 season with the Montreal Royals, the Dodgers’ top farm club, where he led the team to the minor league championship. The following season, he was brought up to the big leagues.</p>
<p>Robinson <a href="https://sabr.org/journal/article/jackie-robinsons-faith-sustained-him-during-unrelenting-turmoil/">promised Rickey</a> that – at least during his rookie year – he wouldn’t respond to the verbal barbs from fans, managers and other players he would face on a daily basis. </p>
<p>His first test took place a week after he joined the Dodgers, during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies. Phillies manager <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/15/sports/baseball/philadelphia-apologizes-to-jackie-robinson.html">Ben Chapman</a> called Robinson the n-word and shouted, “Go back to the cotton field where you belong.” </p>
<p>Though Robinson seethed with anger, he kept his promise to Rickey, enduring the abuse without retaliating. </p>
<p>But after that first year, he increasingly spoke out against racial injustice in speeches, interviews and his regular newspaper columns for The Pittsburgh Courier, New York Post and the New York Amsterdam News.</p>
<p>Many sportswriters and most other players – including some of his fellow Black players – balked at the way Robinson talked about race. They thought he was too angry, too vocal.</p>
<p>Syndicated sports columnist Dick Young of the New York Daily News griped that when he talked to Robinson’s Black teammate Roy Campanella, they stuck to baseball. But when he spoke with Robinson, “sooner or later we get around to social issues.” </p>
<p>A 1953 article in Sport magazine titled “Why They Boo Jackie Robinson” described the second baseman as “combative,” “emotional” and “calculating,” as well as a “pop-off,” a “whiner,” a “showboat” and a “troublemaker.” A Cleveland paper called Robinson a “rabble rouser” who was on a “soap box.” The Sporting News headlined one story “Robinson Should Be a Player, Not a Crusader.” Other writers and players called him a “loudmouth,” a “sorehead” and worse.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, Robinson’s relentless advocacy got the attention of the country’s civil rights leaders.</p>
<p>In 1956, the NAACP gave him its highest honor, <a href="https://www.blackpast.org/african-american-history/naacp-spingarn-medal-1914/">the Spingarn Medal</a>. He was the first athlete to receive that award. In his acceptance speech, he explained that although many people had warned him “not to speak up every time I thought there was an injustice,” he would continue to do so.</p>
<h2>‘A freedom rider before the Freedom Rides’</h2>
<p>After Robinson hung up his cleats in 1957, he stayed true to his word, becoming a constant presence on picket lines and at civil rights rallies.</p>
<p>That same year, he publicly urged President Dwight Eisenhower to send troops to Little Rock, Arkansas, to protect Black students seeking to desegregate its public schools. In 1960, impressed with the resilience and courage of the college students engaging in sit-ins at Southern lunch counters, <a href="https://andscape.com/features/how-jackie-robinsons-love-of-jazz-helped-civil-rights-movement/">he agreed to raise bail money</a> for the students stuck in jail cells.</p>
<p>Robinson initially supported the 1960 presidential campaign of Sen. Hubert Humphrey, a Minnesota Democrat and staunch ally of the civil rights movement. But when John F. Kennedy won the party’s nomination, Robinson – worried that JFK would be beholden to <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/generic/CivilRightsAct1964.htm">Southern Democrats who opposed integration</a> – endorsed Republican Richard Nixon. He quickly regretted that decision after Nixon refused to campaign in Harlem or speak out against the arrest of Martin Luther King Jr. in rural Georgia. Three weeks before Election Day, <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781538110201/Jackie-Robinson-An-Integrated-Life">Robinson said that</a> “Nixon doesn’t deserve to win.” </p>
<p>In February 1962, Robinson traveled to Jackson, Mississippi, to speak at a rally organized by NAACP leader Medgar Evers. Later that year, at King’s request, Robinson traveled to Albany, Georgia, to draw media attention to three Black churches that had been burned to the ground by segregationists. He then led a fundraising campaign <a href="https://georgiahistoryfestival.org/a-legacy-of-leadership-jackie-robinsons-leadership-on-and-off-the-field/">that collected $50,000</a> to rebuild the churches.</p>
<p>In 1963 he devoted considerable time and travel to support King’s voter registration efforts in the South. He also traveled to Birmingham, Alabama, as part of King’s campaign to dismantle segregation in that city. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Group of men in suits gathered around a lectern." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457701/original/file-20220412-37987-ydxqjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457701/original/file-20220412-37987-ydxqjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457701/original/file-20220412-37987-ydxqjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457701/original/file-20220412-37987-ydxqjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457701/original/file-20220412-37987-ydxqjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457701/original/file-20220412-37987-ydxqjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457701/original/file-20220412-37987-ydxqjq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Jackie Robinson, to the right of Martin Luther King Jr., appeared at a rally in Birmingham, Alabama, in May 1963.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/two-of-the-sporting-worlds-greats-visited-birmingham-to-news-photo/517384458?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>“His presence in the South was very important to us,” <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/137494/jackie-robinson-by-arnold-rampersad/">recalled Wyatt Tee Walker</a>, chief of staff of King’s Southern Christian Leadership Conference. <a href="https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/encyclopedia/robinson-jackie">King called Robinson</a> “a sit-inner before the sit-ins, a freedom rider before the Freedom Rides.” </p>
<p>Robinson also consistently criticized police brutality. In August 1968, three Black Panthers in New York City were arrested and charged with assaulting a white police officer. At their hearing two weeks later, about 150 white men, including off-duty police officers, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1968/09/05/archives/offduty-police-here-join-in-beating-black-panthers-among-150.html">stormed the courthouse and attacked</a> 10 Panthers and two white supporters. When he learned that the police had made no arrests of the white rioters, Robinson was outraged.</p>
<p>“The Black Panthers seek self-determination, protection of the Black community, decent housing and employment and express opposition to police abuse,” <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Jackie_Robinson_in_Quotes.html?id=Ob2pCgAAQBAJ">Robinson said</a> during a press conference at the Black Panthers’ headquarters.</p>
<p>He challenged banks for discriminating against Black neighborhoods and condemned slumlords who preyed on Black families.</p>
<p>And Robinson wasn’t done holding Major League Baseball to account, either. He refused to participate in a 1969 Old Timers game because he didn’t see “genuine interest in breaking the barriers that deny access to managerial and front office positions.” At his final public appearance, throwing the ceremonial first pitch before Game 2 of the 1972 World Series, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/24/sports/baseball/24vecsey.html">Robinson observed</a>, “I’m going to be tremendously more pleased and more proud when I look at that third base coaching line one day and see a black face managing in baseball.”</p>
<p>No major league team had a Black manager until Frank Robinson <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25946566/frank-robinson-mvp-first-black-manager-dies-83">was hired by the Cleveland Indians in 1975</a>, three years after Jackie Robinson’s death. The absence of Black managers and front-office executives is an issue that <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/video/dusty-baker-lack-of-african-american-mlb-managers-is-very-dangerous-trend-184238335.html">MLB still grapples with today</a>.</p>
<h2>Athlete activism, then and now</h2>
<p>Athletes still face backlash for speaking out. When NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick protested racism by refusing to stand during the national anthem, then-President <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/made-by-history/wp/2018/05/25/donald-trump-said-protesting-nfl-players-shouldnt-be-in-this-country-we-should-take-him-seriously/">Donald Trump said</a> that athletes who followed Kaepernick’s example “shouldn’t be in the country.” </p>
<p>In 2018, after NBA star LeBron James spoke about a racial slur that had been graffitied on his home and criticized Trump, Fox News’ Laura Ingraham suggested that he “<a href="https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/sports/lebron-james-responds-to-laura-ingrahams-shut-up-and-dribble-with-powerful-post-about-police-brutality/2375333/">shut up and dribble</a>.”</p>
<p>Even so, in the past decade, athletes have become more outspoken on issues of racism, homophobia, sexism, American militarism, immigrant rights and other issues. They all stand on Robinson’s shoulders.</p>
<p>It was Robinson’s strong patriotism that led him to challenge America to live up to its ideals. He felt an obligation to use his fame to challenge the society’s racial injustice. However, during his last few years – before he died of a heart attack in 1972 at age 53 – he grew increasingly disillusioned with the pace of racial progress. </p>
<p>In his 1972 memoir, “I Never Had It Made,” he wrote: “I cannot stand and sing the anthem. I cannot salute the flag; I know that I am a Black man in a white world.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179732/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Dreier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Years before Colin Kaepernick was born, Robinson wrote, ‘I cannot stand and sing the anthem. I cannot salute the flag; I know that I am a Black man in a white world.’Peter Dreier, E.P. Clapp Distinguished Professor of Politics, Occidental CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795052022-03-18T10:12:46Z2022-03-18T10:12:46ZLasso-ing Chelsea FC? Why super-rich US sports owners are looking to buy a London soccer team<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452894/original/file-20220317-23-1ulw0kg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C208%2C2102%2C1168&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Putting the Blues in the red, white and blue.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chelsea-fan-in-a-stars-and-stripes-hat-cheers-on-his-team-news-photo/681569006?adppopup=true">Bradley C Bower/EMPICS via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ted Lasso, the story of an American football coach bringing his unique management skills to a fictional soccer club in West London, has <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10986410/">entertained TV viewers since 2020</a>. It now appears that some investors stateside are looking to experience this close up by buying a real English Premier League club in West London: Chelsea FC.</p>
<p>For the fictional Lasso, swap in the very real Ricketts family. The Chicago Cubs owners have joined up with hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin to bid for the club and have <a href="https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11668/12572802/chelsea-sale-ricketts-family-fly-to-london-as-race-to-buy-the-blues-hots-up">flown to London</a> to meet with Chelsea stakeholders.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Woody Johnson, owner of the New York Jets and a former Ambassador to the U.K., also <a href="https://www.si.com/soccer/chelsea/news/report-woody-johnson-makes-big-solo-offer-for-chelsea-as-raine-review-takeover-offers">reportedly threw his hat into the ring</a>.</p>
<p>The fire sale of the club is part of the fallout from the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine. The current owner is the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/world/europe/roman-abramovich-russian-oligarch-sanctions.html">Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich</a>. Facing pressure over his links to Vladimir Putin, he promised <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/annakaplan/2022/03/02/russian-billionaire-roman-abramovich-to-sell-chelsea-fcdonate-proceeds-to-help-victims-in-ukraine/?sh=7a7129ca44a0">to sell the club and donate the proceeds for Ukraine relief</a>. Then the U.K. government froze his assets and imposed conditions on the sale process to <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10029291-roman-abramovichs-assets-frozen-needs-uk-governments-permission-to-sell-chelsea">make sure there was no impropriety</a>. The expected price tag for the club is <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-ricketts-family-ken-griffin-make-joint-bid-chelsea-fc">in excess of US$3 billion</a>.</p>
<p>But why are Americans so interested in the fire sale of this club? </p>
<p>Chelsea is one of the best known soccer clubs in the world and current holder of Europe’s prestigious <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/may/29/manchester-city-chelsea-champions-league-final-match-report-kai-havertz">Champions League trophy</a>, which the team also won in 2012. Chelsea is a five-time champion of the English Premier League (EPL). </p>
<p>But the interest is driven not so much by what Chelsea has been, as what it might become. The EPL is already the <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1948434-why-the-premier-league-is-the-most-powerful-league-in-the-world">dominant soccer league on the planet</a>, and it might plausibly go on to become the dominant league across all sports – a kind of NFL Global if you will. And that makes Chelsea, one of the league’s biggest clubs, a very attractive prospect. Its location in one of London’s most fashionable districts also helps, even if the <a href="https://www.football.london/chelsea-fc/news/chelsea-new-stadium-stamford-bridge-19601375">stadium itself could do with an upgrade</a>.</p>
<h2>An open goal …</h2>
<p>This interest of American investors in English professional soccer is not new. In fact, it can be dated to 1998 when, temporarily, Manchester United became <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sport/football/543805.stm#:%7E:text=Nine%20British%20clubs%20in%20total,did%20not%20win%20any%20trophies.">the world’s most valuable sports team</a>.</p>
<p>The flood of TV money that started to <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/385002/premier-league-tv-rights-revenue/">swell the coffers of England’s top teams from the early 1990s</a> piqued interest in the U.S. and led to a series of acquisitions.</p>
<p>By 2005, the Glazer family, owners of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, had <a href="https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/who-owns-manchester-united-who-are-the-glazer-family/18j8f1yu1tliv1hrp93zeffh7n">acquired Manchester United</a>. A couple of years later, St. Louis Rams owner Stan Kroenke <a href="https://www.football.london/arsenal-fc/news/how-much-money-stan-kroenke-17273593">started buying shares in</a> London club Arsenal, eventually taking overall control. In 2010, Boston Red Sox owner John Henry <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/483802-liverpool-sold-after-years-of-uncertainty-to-boston-red-sox-owner-john-henry">purchased Liverpool</a>. </p>
<p>For those already super-rich individuals, the move into soccer has paid off. Between 2004 and 2021, the value of these three clubs plus Chelsea increased from <a href="https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2004/0412/126tab.html?sh=761f8fa23425">$2.5 billion</a> to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2021/04/12/the-worlds-most-valuable-soccer-teams-barcelona-on-top-at-48-billion/?sh=7618731916ac">$14.3 billion</a>, a healthy 11% compound average growth rate.</p>
<p>While Europe’s Champions League gives these clubs international exposure – the final of that competition in 2020 <a href="https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/super-bowl-vs-world-cup-champions-league-viewing-figures/blte47db8809dbd0a6d">pulled in 328 million viewers worldwide</a> – it’s the global reach of the English Premier League that makes its clubs attractive in the long term. The EPL now generates over 50% of its broadcast revenues from <a href="https://www.premierleague.com/news/970151">overseas contracts</a>. It recently signed a <a href="https://theathletic.com/news/premier-league-agrees-new-six-year-us-tv-deal-worth-more-than-two-billion/GJhr8eHhi3ke/">$2.7 billion contract</a> for the U.S., even though most games air on weekend mornings, meaning people living on the West Coast having to wake up at 4 a.m. to catch some games.</p>
<p>There is almost no country in the world where you cannot get access to EPL games. While Spain’s La Liga and Germany’s Bundesliga are popular, they lag far behind in <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/sports-business-group/articles/annual-review-of-football-finance.html">revenues and reach</a>, and no other league generates even half the revenues of the EPL. </p>
<h2>… or an own goal?</h2>
<p>But acquiring an English soccer club is not without risk. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-ups-and-downs-of-european-soccer-are-part-of-its-culture-moving-to-a-us-style-closed-super-league-would-destroy-that-159316">promotion and relegation system</a>, in which the bottom three teams in the EPL annually go down a division to the less glamorous second-tier Championship, means that teams that fail to win on the pitch are threatened with commercial as well as sporting failure, as several American owners learned the hard way.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A supporter holds aloft a corner flag while another holds a sign saying 'Glazer out.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452899/original/file-20220317-12943-1bgknar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452899/original/file-20220317-12943-1bgknar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452899/original/file-20220317-12943-1bgknar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452899/original/file-20220317-12943-1bgknar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452899/original/file-20220317-12943-1bgknar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452899/original/file-20220317-12943-1bgknar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452899/original/file-20220317-12943-1bgknar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters protest against Manchester United’s owners, the Glazer family.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-protest-against-manchester-uniteds-owners-inside-news-photo/1232648557?adppopup=true">Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before John Henry and the Fenway Sports Group bought Liverpool, the club was <a href="https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/liverpool-george-gillett-tom-hicks-19947788">briefly owned by two other Americans</a>, Tom Hicks and George Gillett, who nearly drove the club into ruin before selling it.</p>
<p>Randy Lerner, the billionaire who once owned the Cleveland Browns, bought Aston Villa FC in 2006 with hopes of bringing success back to a storied team situated in the U.K’s second-largest city, Birmingham. But he decided to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2016/05/18/randy-lerner-suffers-400-million-loss-with-sale-of-aston-villa/">sell a decade later</a> after the club was relegated from the EPL, losing a large chunk of TV revenue in the process.</p>
<p>Similarly, American businessman Ellis Short bought Sunderland AFC in 2008 and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/apr/29/chris-coleman-sackedd-manager-sunderland">sold it in 2018</a> following relegation in that year.</p>
<p>Chelsea’s neighbor Fulham FC – the two teams’ stadiums are only a mile apart – was purchased by Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shahid Khan in 2013, but the club <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jacksonville-jaguars-premier-league-europe-soccer-nfl-a00ffa7a55925ff226842a9dfb75f222">was immediately relegated</a>. And in 2017, former Disney CEO Michael Eisner <a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/40789323">bought Portsmouth FC</a> – a famous team languishing in the third tier of English football, where it remains today.</p>
<h2>Moving the goal posts?</h2>
<p>Because of the financial and sporting risks of relegation from the English Premier League, successful clubs must continually invest in talent, making it hard to generate profit.</p>
<p>In the past five years, based on the club’s <a href="https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/04784127/filing-history">audited financial statements</a>, Chelsea has reported a cumulative net loss of £227 million ($299 million) on revenues of £2.166 billion ($2.85 billion). The accounts also show that this can be attributed to player wage costs, which have averaged 65% of revenues over the past five seasons, and reached 77% of revenues in the 2020/21 season, when COVID-19 kept fans out of the stadium.</p>
<p>The obvious solution for big clubs like Chelsea is to limit risk by abolishing the promotion and relegation system and then instituting salary caps and other restrictive measures employed in U.S. leagues. </p>
<p>However, when the big clubs proposed something along these lines in 2021 – the ill-fated European Super League – the <a href="https://www.espn.com/soccer/blog-espn-fc-united/story/4366927/super-league-collapses-how-fan-reactionrevolt-helped-end-english-clubs-breakaway">opposition from fans was so intense</a> that the clubs were forced to back down.</p>
<p>American owners frequently mention a steep learning curve when describing the acquisition of an English soccer club. The attractions are easy to see, the pitfalls are perhaps a little less obvious to the untrained eye.</p>
<p>[<em>More than 150,000 readers get one of The Conversation’s informative newsletters.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140K">Join the list today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Szymanski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The deadline for formal bids to buy Chelsea FC is March 18. Expect some very rich US businessmen to be in the running.Stefan Szymanski, Professor of Sport Management, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1785832022-03-11T15:45:55Z2022-03-11T15:45:55ZMLB’s new collective bargaining agreement fails to address players’ biggest grievances<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451456/original/file-20220310-13-1jrrk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=122%2C0%2C4665%2C2497&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Players voted to accept Major League Baseball's offer on a new labor deal, paving the way to end the 99-day lockout and salvage the season.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BaseballLockout/3890b2cc098c476686aff97e9ce9996c/photo?Query=baseball%20lockout&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=147&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Gregory Bull</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball,” second baseman Rogers Hornsby <a href="https://twitter.com/mlb/status/1074319018415267841?lang=en">once said</a>. “I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.”</p>
<p>For a while, it was looking like the start of spring would come and go without any baseball on the horizon. </p>
<p>But just when <a href="https://thecomeback.com/mlb/fans-react-mlb-lockout-rob-manfred.html">fan morale was at its nadir</a>, Major League Baseball announced <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2022/03/10/with-mlb-lockout-over-here-are-all-the-details-of-new-2022-26-labor-deal/?sh=3439736f23e2">a five-year agreement with its players</a>, ending the second-longest labor interruption in MLB history. Now, April 7, 2022, will serve as most teams’ opening day.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jR65pQoAAAAJ&hl=en">Sports economists like me</a> have long studied labor disruptions in sports. In this dispute – the first major one in baseball <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/indians/opinion/reliving-the-1994-mlb-strike-as-2022-labor-negotiations-continue">since the mid-1990s</a> – player grievances largely centered on two issues: the length of time it takes them to reach free agency and the lack of a payroll floor. Both policies suppressed their salaries despite the fact that <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/193466/total-league-revenue-of-the-mlb-since-2005/">league revenues have grown in recent years</a>.</p>
<p>The new collective bargaining agreement takes some important steps toward correcting these problems. But it mostly just pushes the big issues another five years down the track. The deal also leaves baseball players with a fundamentally different – and very likely worse – arrangement than their counterparts in the other major American sports leagues have.</p>
<h2>The indentured servants of pro sports</h2>
<p>MLB requires players to be on a big league roster for six years before they’re allowed to hit <a href="https://franchisesports.co.uk/mlb-free-agency-explained/">free agency</a> and negotiate a salary with any team of their choosing. In the <a href="https://www.nba.com/news/free-agency-explained">NBA</a> and <a href="https://operations.nfl.com/updates/football-ops/2021-nfl-free-agency-questions-answers/">NFL</a>, players need to play for only four years before they become free agents. And unlike football and basketball – sports in which players usually go straight from college to the pros – baseball players often spend several years in the minor leagues before getting called up to the Show. Those seasons don’t count toward the required service time for free agency.</p>
<p>Therefore, many players don’t get the right to freely negotiate for their services until they are in their late 20s or early 30s – ages at which many players are already past their prime.</p>
<p>In the period before free agency, players are bound to teams in ways that allow the teams to underpay them relative to their contributions to team success both on the field and for the team’s bottom line. For example, because he was in only his second season in the league, the Cleveland Guardians’ <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/biebesh01.shtml">Shane Bieber</a> earned just US$231,000 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/shane-bieber-wins-2020-al-cy-young">despite winning the American League’s Cy Young Award</a> as the league’s best pitcher. In a market in which he could freely negotiate for his services, Bieber would have likely earned in excess of $20 million. But he won’t actually get the right to earn market value for his talents until 2025, at which point he will be nearly 30 years old.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Baseball pitcher throws ball." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451123/original/file-20220309-20-1vufgck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451123/original/file-20220309-20-1vufgck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451123/original/file-20220309-20-1vufgck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451123/original/file-20220309-20-1vufgck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451123/original/file-20220309-20-1vufgck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451123/original/file-20220309-20-1vufgck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451123/original/file-20220309-20-1vufgck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Cleveland Guardians are able to pay star pitcher Shane Bieber at a bargain rate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cleveland-indians-starting-pitcher-shane-bieber-delivers-a-news-photo/1235481084?adppopup=true">Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since most players’ <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070709131254.htm">MLB careers</a> are shorter than six years, the majority of players never make it through “lean” years to that big free-agency payoff.</p>
<p>These free-agency rules remain unchanged in the new agreement, although the league’s minimum salary has been increased from <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33470321/sources-mlb-union-reach-tentative-agreement-new-cba-salvage-162-game-season">$570,500 to $700,000</a> and will grow to $780,000 by the end of the deal. Another $50 million will be distributed each season to players who have yet to reach salary <a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/what-is-arbitration-mlb-what-does-it-mean-baseball-eligibility-process/1atg6pycmf69o1x5yy2v31o03w">arbitration</a>, a system that grants pre-free-agency players at least some level of bargaining power with their existing team. In addition, the agreement includes incentives to encourage teams to bring up players from the minor leagues somewhat earlier, which should result in some players achieving free agency at a younger age.</p>
<p>While these are welcome additions that will increase wages for MLB’s lowest-paid players by about 40%, the new amounts allocated to players still total less than 1% of MLB’s annual revenue.</p>
<h2>A soft cap – and no floor</h2>
<p>The MLB is also unique in that players are not entitled to specified percentages of league revenues, and teams are not required to spend a minimum amount on payroll. The new agreement does little to change this structure.</p>
<p>In the NFL, for example, organizations must spend at least <a href="https://nflpa.com/posts/nfl-economics-101">48% of league revenue</a> on player compensation, and individual teams have a salary cap of <a href="https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-sets-salary-cap-at-208-2-million-per-team-for-2022-season">$208.2 million in 2022</a>. They’re also obligated to spend at least 89% of the cap on salaries over the course of several seasons, which effectively creates a salary floor of roughly $185 million.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/193466/total-league-revenue-of-the-mlb-since-2005/">MLB revenues</a> rose 15%, from $9.03 billion in 2016 to $10.37 billion in 2019, while the <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/236213/mean-salaray-of-players-in-majpr-league-baseball/">average salary</a> remained flat at $4.38 million, indicating that players were taking home a smaller piece of the economic pie.</p>
<p>Though revenue took a huge hit in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, <a href="https://www.libertymedia.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/461/liberty-media-corporation-reports-fourth-quarter-and-year">some data suggests</a> that revenues in 2021 largely recovered to their pre-pandemic levels while average salaries fell nearly 5%. On top of that, the average figures are distorted by record-breaking contracts from just a handful of superstars. The <a href="https://twitter.com/spotrac/status/1498823166650638336">median salary</a> of an MLB player fell from $1.65 million in 2015 to $1.15 million in 2021 – a decline of over 30%. Over half of all players earn at or near the league’s minimum salary, since they are ineligible for either free agency or arbitration. </p>
<p>While MLB doesn’t have a salary cap that limits what teams can spend on players, <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-mlb-cbt-explained-luxury-tax-20220304-rtmzefdymbcghll7vhsn42zqni-story.html">it does have a luxury tax</a> that penalizes teams that spend more than a certain amount on payroll. The luxury tax, which effectively serves as a soft salary cap, is set to increase from <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mlbpa-agree-to-cba">$210 to $230 million</a> in the new agreement, and will rise to $244 million by 2026. </p>
<p>However, since only eight teams exceeded the threshold even once between 2003 and 2019 – and only the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers have paid the luxury tax on a regular basis – this increase is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the wages paid to the typical player.</p>
<p>Most importantly, MLB teams – unlike their counterparts in other sports – have no salary floor. Such teams as the Orioles, Pirates and Marlins <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/">spend less on their entire active rosters</a> than some other teams spend on a single starting pitcher. These teams cycle through underpaid young players and then let them sign elsewhere when they’re eligible for free agency. Although these teams tend to be wildly unsuccessful on the field and at the ticket office, generous revenue sharing arrangements with the league <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/04/09/despite-lockdown-mlb-teams-gain-value-in-2020/?sh=5ec8e3002010">still allow them to make money</a>. </p>
<p>Nothing in the new agreement changes the incentives for these teams or provides relief for their long-suffering fans. </p>
<h2>Owners had time on their side</h2>
<p>To me, the owners’ strategy was transparent. They knew the players had legitimate grievances that might result in a strike later in the season, so they wanted to force concessions as soon as possible, knowing that the players’ bargaining power would rise as the season progressed. A players strike right before playoffs in the fall would have inflicted the maximum pain on the owners.</p>
<p>Time was always on the owners’ side: Their careers as owners tend to be much longer than those of players, whose bodies are always aging.</p>
<p>Baseball junkies will notice <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/mlb-rules-changes-baseball-cba-deal-dh-pitch-clock-bases-postseason">several cosmetic changes</a> to the game right away: an expanded postseason, sponsor advertisements on jerseys and a designated hitter in the National League. The agreement also <a href="https://fansided.com/2022/03/10/mlb-lockout-new-rules-cba/">opens the door for rule changes in 2023</a> that include larger bases, limits on defensive shifts and a pitch clock. Other than some real improvements to the salaries for the league’s lowest-paid players, however, the economics of baseball’s underlying labor model remains as flawed as ever. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, for this summer – and for the next five years, at least – fans will be able to grab their peanuts and Cracker Jack and head out to the old ballgame. </p>
<p>[<em>More than 150,000 readers get one of The Conversation’s informative newsletters.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140K">Join the list today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178583/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victor Matheson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A sports economist explains how the deal leaves players with a fundamentally different – and in many ways, worse – arrangement than their counterparts in the other major US sports leagues.Victor Matheson, Professor of Economics and Accounting, College of the Holy CrossLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1707642021-10-29T12:36:39Z2021-10-29T12:36:39ZHow much longer will Major League Baseball stay in the closet?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429168/original/file-20211028-23-1s0j8ki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C9%2C6211%2C4138&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While the league has taken steps to make baseball more welcoming for LGBTQ employees and fans, no active player has come out.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vanessa-williams-proposes-to-her-girlfriend-megan-coombs-in-news-photo/1310310612?adppopup=true">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In his 1990 autobiography, “<a href="https://www.publishersweekly.com/978-0-451-17029-3">Behind the Mask: My Double Life in Baseball</a>,” Dave Pallone, a gay major league umpire who was quietly fired in 1988 after rumors about his sexual orientation circulated in the baseball world, contended that there were enough gay major league players to create an All-Star team.</p>
<p>Since then, attitudes and laws about homosexuality have changed. High-profile figures in business, politics, show business, education, the media, the military and sports have come out of the closet. </p>
<p>Athletes in three of the five major U.S. male team sports – the NBA, NFL and MLS – have come out while still playing, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-its-such-a-big-deal-that-the-nfls-carl-nassib-came-out-as-gay-163228">NFL player Carl Nassib</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/19/us/luke-prokop-comes-out-nhl-trnd/index.html">NHL prospect Luke Prokop</a> coming out in summer 2021. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.outsports.com/olympics/2021/7/12/22565574/tokyo-summer-olympics-lgbtq-gay-athletes-list">according to OutSports magazine</a>, at least 185 publicly out LGBTQ athletes – 90% of them women – participated in the Tokyo Olympic Games, more than in all previous Summer Olympics combined.</p>
<p>But among the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/">more than 20,000 men</a> who have played major league baseball, not one has publicly come out of the closet while still in uniform.</p>
<p>What’s taken so long? And is baseball ready for its gay Jackie Robinson? </p>
<h2>Two ex-players pave the way</h2>
<p>“I think we’re getting close,” <a href="http://billybean.com/">Billy Bean</a>, the only openly gay former major league player alive today, recently told me. “We’re making incredible strides.” </p>
<p>Bean played for the Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres for parts of six seasons, hiding his homosexuality from his friends, fans and teammates at great emotional cost. He quit baseball in 1995 and four years later publicly came out. In 2003 he published a book, “<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Going_the_Other_Way.html?id=ngidGSutPvUC">Going the Other Way: Lessons from a Life In and Out of Major League Baseball</a>,” in which he describes the anguish of being a closeted ballplayer. In 2014, then-Commissioner Bud Selig hired Bean as Major League Baseball’s first Ambassador for Inclusion.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429161/original/file-20211028-26-1ovgbwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man gazes out window." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429161/original/file-20211028-26-1ovgbwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429161/original/file-20211028-26-1ovgbwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429161/original/file-20211028-26-1ovgbwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429161/original/file-20211028-26-1ovgbwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429161/original/file-20211028-26-1ovgbwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429161/original/file-20211028-26-1ovgbwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429161/original/file-20211028-26-1ovgbwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After retiring from baseball, Glenn Burke talked about the difficulties of coming out as a professional athlete.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/AIDSBurke/ad2a4d54728241889454cc61fb5b5e4e/photo?Query=glenn%20burke&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=33&currentItemNo=9">AP Photo/Mark Hundley</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Bean was the second major league baseball player to come out of the closet after hanging up his spikes. The first, Glenn Burke, played for the Dodgers and Oakland Athletics between 1976 and 1979. He came out publicly in 1982 in an Inside Sports article, “<a href="https://deadspin.com/the-double-life-of-a-gay-dodger-493697377">The Double Life of a Gay Dodger</a>.”</p>
<p>“It’s harder to be gay in sports than anywhere else, except maybe president,” said Burke. “Baseball is probably the hardest sport of all.”</p>
<p>In his autobiography, “<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/318320/out-at-home-by-glenn-burke-erik-sherman/9780698196612">Out at Home</a>,” published shortly after he died of AIDS in 1995, Burke recalled: “I got used to the ‘fag’ jokes. You heard them everywhere then.”</p>
<p>No other ex-major league baseball player – much less one still in uniform – has yet followed in Bean’s and Burke’s footsteps.</p>
<h2>A lingering stain of homophobia</h2>
<p>What’s stopping LGBTQ baseball players from coming out publicly?</p>
<p>Perhaps they calculate that the personal or financial costs still outweigh the benefits.</p>
<p>There is a strong current of fundamentalist Christianity within baseball, which could make life uncomfortable for openly gay players. <a href="https://religioninpublic.blog/2018/02/12/i-want-thank-god-for-allowing-my-team-to-win-an-analysis-of-sports-and-christianity/">One study of Bible verses in pro athlete’s Twitter bios concluded</a> that major league baseball players were “far and away the most overtly religious group of athletes of the four major sporting leagues.”</p>
<p>There are also lingering strands of explicit homophobia.</p>
<p>In 2012, Detroit Tigers outfielder Torii Hunter <a href="https://www.latimes.com/sports/la-xpm-2012-dec-31-la-sp-sn-torii-hunter-gay-athletes-20121231-story.html">told the Los Angeles Times</a> that he’d be uncomfortable with a gay teammate, because “biblically, it’s not right.”</p>
<p>In 2015, Houston Astros slugger Lance Berkman, an evangelical Christian, campaigned against the city’s Equal Rights Ordinance, designed to protect LGBTQ rights. “To me,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2015/11/05/retired-mlb-star-lance-berkman-declares-tolerance-is-killing-our-country/">Berkman said at the time</a>, “tolerance is the virtue that’s killing this country.” The ordinance was defeated.</p>
<p>Other MLB players have made homophobic comments over the years, including <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/news/1999/1222/247659.html">John Rocker</a>, <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/news/2001/0502/1190420.html">Julian Tavarez</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/sports/baseball/yunel-escobar-suspended-3-games-for-slur-on-eye-black.html">Yunel Escobar</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/cubs/2018/08/26/cubs-laura-ricketts-co-owner-daniel-murphy-anti-gay-comments-trade/1104636002/">Daniel Murphy</a> and <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/2003/0429/1546815.html">Todd Jones</a>, along with manager <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=2496753">Ozzie Guillen</a>.</p>
<h2>Changes start at the top</h2>
<p>Even as players on big-league rosters stay in the closet, MLB and individual teams have taken steps to make baseball more inclusive for LGBTQ employees and fans.</p>
<p>In 2009, when the Ricketts family purchased the Chicago Cubs, <a href="https://www.chicagomag.com/chicago-magazine/may-2020/women-power-50/laura-ricketts/">Laura Ricketts</a> became the first openly LGBTQ person to own a professional sports team. <a href="https://www.tennismajors.com/our-features/on-this-day/may-1st-1981-the-day-billie-jean-king-was-outed-138210.html">Billie Jean King</a>, the former tennis star who, in 1981, became the first openly gay high-profile sports figure, is now part-owner of the Dodgers. </p>
<p>At least four teams – the Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks – now have openly gay top-tier executives. Bean has started a program to recruit and mentor more LGBTQ people to work for teams’ front offices at the major and minor league levels.</p>
<p>In 2000, a lesbian couple <a href="https://www.outsports.com/2011/7/18/4051562/moment-84-lesbian-couple-ejected-from-dodgers-stadium-for-kissing">was ejected from Dodger Stadium for kissing</a>. Today, out of 30 MLB teams, <a href="https://www.outsports.com/2021/6/14/22532482/houston-astros-texas-rangers-lgbtq-pride">only the Texas Rangers have never hosted an LGBTQ Pride event of some kind</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fans walk past a Boston Red Sox logo with a Progress Pride flag superimposed over it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429165/original/file-20211028-25-18n3xci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429165/original/file-20211028-25-18n3xci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429165/original/file-20211028-25-18n3xci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429165/original/file-20211028-25-18n3xci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429165/original/file-20211028-25-18n3xci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429165/original/file-20211028-25-18n3xci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429165/original/file-20211028-25-18n3xci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All major league baseball teams, save for one, have held a Pride Night.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pride-night-banner-hangs-in-the-concourse-as-walk-by-before-news-photo/1322950569?adppopup=true">Adam Glanzman/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several teams have fined or suspended players, managers, and at least one broadcaster – the Cincinnati Reds’ <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/09/25/thom-brennaman-reds-broadcast-resign">Thom Brennaman</a> – for uttering anti-gay slurs. And despite the occasional homophobic epithet that continues to emerge from their ranks, more and more straight baseball players have expressed support for the LGBTQ community over the past couple of decades. </p>
<p>In 2003, Colorado Rockies star Mark Grace <a href="https://www.outsports.com/2013/2/26/4033832/pitcher-todd-jones-doesnt-like-gay-people">told the Denver Post</a> that most ballplayers wouldn’t be threatened by the idea of a gay teammate. “I’ve played for 16 years, and I’m sure I’ve had homosexual teammates that I didn’t know about.”</p>
<p>Added Grace: “I think if you’re intelligent at all, you’d understand that homosexuals are just like us.”</p>
<p>In 2005, Reds outfielder Ken Griffey Jr. <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/news/story?id=2035653">said that having a gay teammate</a> “wouldn’t bother me at all. If you can play, you can play.” And in 2018, after <a href="https://www.outsports.com/2018/8/3/17647030/ranking-the-apologies-of-major-league-baseball-players-for-their-anti-gay-tweets">the media highlighted a rash of anti-gay slurs</a> tweeted by several major league ballplayers, pitcher Sean Doolittle <a href="https://twitter.com/whatwoulddoodo/status/1024054958092627968?lang=en">tweeted a full-throated defense</a>: “Some of the strongest people I know are from the LGBTQ community. It takes courage to be your true self when your identity has been used as an insult or a pejorative.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1024054958092627968"}"></div></p>
<h2>No perfect time</h2>
<p>The first gay major league baseball player to come out will not be a matter of if, but when.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.outsports.com/2015/1/27/7904811/poll-large-majority-americans-favor-openly-gay-athletes">A 2015 poll</a> found that 73% of Americans – including a majority of white evangelical Christians – said they would support a pro sports team signing an openly gay or lesbian athlete. </p>
<p>Some hope that the first pro ballplayer to come out will be a star. In 2014, Pallone, the gay former umpire, <a href="https://www.foxsports.com/stories/other/a-chat-with-dave-pallone-first-mlb-umpire-to-come-out-as-gay">told Fox Sports</a> that he wanted it to be “a player whose name rolls off somebody’s tongue. That’s what will do the most good.”</p>
<p>Or the first gay big-leaguer could simply emerge from the prospect pipeline. In the past decade, two openly gay ballplayers – David Denson and Sean Conroy – played in the minor leagues. A third minor leaguer, Bryan Ruby, played as an infielder for the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes, part of an independent professional league in Oregon, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2021/09/02/bryan-ruby-only-active-professional-baseball-player-out-gay/8244571002/">came out in September 2021</a>. There are <a href="https://www.outsports.com/2020/4/1/21199294/gay-college-baseball-brett-lysohir-coming-out">growing</a> <a href="https://www.outsports.com/2018/4/23/17238344/michael-holland-felician-baseball-gay-coming-out">numbers</a> of openly gay college players, and the best of them could ascend the professional ranks into the majors.</p>
<p>“When I was playing, homosexuality was a taboo topic. We never talked openly about it,” Bean said. “Gay athletes in high school, college and the minors now have role models.”</p>
<p>There will always be some who argue that the time isn’t ripe for a major breakthrough. But as Jon Buzinski, the founder of OutSports, told me: “Everybody will say, ‘We aren’t ready.’ Society was not ready for Jackie Robinson. If you are going to wait for everybody to be ready, nobody will do it.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170764/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Dreier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Among the more than 20,000 men who have played major league baseball, not one has publicly come out of the closet while still in uniform.Peter Dreier, E.P. Clapp Distinguished Professor of Politics, Occidental CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1636142021-07-25T14:11:33Z2021-07-25T14:11:33ZRevealing the long but hidden history of queer women in sport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412212/original/file-20210720-27-zokzh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1080&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Queer women in sports is often hidden from history. 'A Secret Love' helps illuminate missing pieces. Here, Terry Donahue, fifth from the left in the front row, in the Peoria Redwings team photo in 1947, the same year she met her long-time lover, Pat Henschel. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Netflix)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As a white queer athlete, sports enthusiast and sociologist, I have forever searched for stories about queer women who earned their livelihood playing sports. </p>
<p>Stories shared in <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17903075-girls-of-summer">Lois Browne’s non-fiction book, <em>The Girls of Summer</em> (1992)</a> and the Hollywood film, <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0104694/"><em>A League of Their Own</em> (1992)</a>, make scant mention of lesbian ballplayers. </p>
<p>There are some tales of brave souls who scaled cis-sexist and heteronormative barriers to come out in sporting worlds: Billie Jean King, Martina Navratilova and Amélie Mauresmo in tennis; Patty Sheehan, Rosie Jones and Alena Sharp in golf; Sheryl Swoopes, Sue Bird and Brittney Griner in basketball; and Abby Wambach, Erin McLeod, and Megan Rapinoe in soccer. Some of these women, like Swoopes and Griner, also dealt with <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10894160902876705?scroll=top&needAccess=true">racist barriers.</a></p>
<p>So, when Netflix released the documentary <em>A Secret Love</em> last year, I was thrilled that some of the little known history of gay women and sports was revealed. The film is a poignant portrait of a 71-year lesbian relationship between Terry Donahue, an infielder-turned-catcher with the Peoria Redwings of the AAGPBL, and her lover, Pat Henschel. </p>
<p>Terry and Pat were two courageous women from the Canadian Prairies who fell in love and stayed together in Chicago, after Terry’s last season of pro-baseball. The film also opens up conversations about long-hidden histories of queer women, sport and pernicious legacies of racism.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XrXvN2FWqvE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Clip from A League of Their Own (Sony Pictures)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The documentary: secret loves</h2>
<p>Terry <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40204711?refreqid=excelsior%3A1cd2bfdb2225ec5d8ad1c29503e10c26&seq=2#metadata_info_tab_contents">started playing for the Redwings</a> in Peoria, Ill., in 1946. During her off-season in 1947, Terry met Pat in a small town in Saskatchewan when the two were teammates on the Wildcats, a women’s ice hockey team in the Western Canada Girls Hockey League. </p>
<p>Chris Bolan, Terry’s great-nephew, started filming Terry and Pat when they were in their mid-80s and <a href="https://longreads.com/2018/05/31/how-american-womens-pro-baseball-kept-lesbians-in-the-closet/">only recently “out” to family members.</a> Using interviews, photographs, baseball cards, home movies, poetry and letters, Bolan captures the women’s shared passion for athletic pursuits, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S155541552030101X">their enduring relationship</a> and their marriage in 2015, <a href="https://people.com/movies/netflixs-a-secret-love-follows-6-decade-romance-between-two-women-who-finally-decide-to-come-out/">a few years prior to Terry’s death at 93.</a> </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ghv3-lpFOcc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Clip from A Secret Love (Netflix)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A history of multiple exclusions</h2>
<p>The decades immediately after the Second World War in the United States and Canada were fraught with homophobic violence, including <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/the-canadian-war-on-queers">state-led purges of queer people from the military and public service.</a> Medical experts pathologized homosexuals as <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00224499009551563">“sexually maladjusted.”</a> Mass-marketed lesbian-themed pulp novels told <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/184029">titillating tales</a> of gay women’s torment and heartbreak.</p>
<p>Targeted for being “deviants,” “sinners,” and “national security risks” in the 1940s and 1950s, some lesbians found solace, belonging and life-long love through involvement in sports. </p>
<p>At the same time, sporting access for gay women was structured by racism, class hierarchies and homophobia.</p>
<p>Terry Donahue’s <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/2201473X.2014.993056">professional league banned African American women.</a>
Also, baseball had a role in <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/2201473X.2014.993056">consolidating settler colonialism and Indigenous displacement</a> across the U.S. and Canada. </p>
<p>White racial identities, middle-class comfort, financial investments and calculated secrecy protected Terry and Pat. After Terry’s retirement from the AAGPBL, she and Pat worked at an interior design firm and lived in Chicago’s predominantly white urban and suburban districts. Neither Terry nor Pat was roughed up, extorted or arrested during police raids on working-class gay and lesbian bars or drag balls in downtown <a href="https://uwpress.wisc.edu/books/4955.htm">Chicago’s “black pansy” scene.</a> Terry and Pat said they never frequented “those places.” </p>
<p>Meanwhile, residents of the predominantly African American district of <a href="http://www.siupress.com/books/978-0-8093-3426-1">Bronzeville on Chicago’s South Side</a>, including working-class and poor queers of colour, routinely endured anti-Black brutality, over-policing, housing insecurity and precarious employment. </p>
<h2>Feminine beauty ideals and ticket sales</h2>
<p>In the 1940s, the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/3178373.pdf?refreqid=excelsior:514d26d3a7ac9556b789a97c282d96c2">age-old negative stereotype</a> that competitive sport manufactures “dykes” out of girls and women must have made things difficult.</p>
<p>White female professional baseball players like Terry Donahue of the Redwings and members of the rival Rockford Peaches, Racine Belles and Rapid City Chicks were <a href="https://narratively.com/the-hidden-queer-history-behind-a-league-of-their-own/">subjected to mandatory beauty and charm school lessons</a> designed to ratchet up their cis feminine allure and to de-masculinize their physical appearance. I marvelled at a photograph of Terry and Pat in uber-feminine couture at a time when <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.15767/feministstudies.42.3.0604">gender-transgressive butch lesbians were the most visible beacons of post-war lesbian life.</a></p>
<p>Along with evening curfews and “no dating” policies, the league’s brass sought to reassure male spectators that white female players were, or appeared to be, heterosexually available — and thus worth watching. </p>
<p>Even in 2021, <a href="https://theconversation.com/sports-remain-hostile-territory-for-lgbtq-americans-157948">many LGBTQ and Two Spirit elite athletes stay hidden</a> for fear of violence, on top of fearing the loss of fans, product endorsements and salaries.</p>
<h2>Community softball</h2>
<p>A decade ago, U.S. Supreme Court Judge Elena Kagan was rumoured to be a lesbian after <a href="https://nypost.com/2010/05/13/does-a-picture-of-elena-kagan-playing-softball-suggest-shes-a-lesbian/">a photo surfaced</a> of her playing softball in the 1990s in Chicago. The vigorous disavowal of Kagan’s queerness is a reminder of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00948705.2013.785420">lesbian stigma used to police women</a> and hinder their athletic endeavours.</p>
<p>Besides professional baseball, <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/making-a-scene">community-based softball leagues have nourished lesbian subcultures in the west for decades.</a>. Softball leagues like The Haveners in Toronto’s Ladies Softball League (1960s) and Big Apple Softball in New York (1977-present) have been <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3704161">oases for queer members</a> in search of camaraderie and romance. </p>
<p>While these sporting spaces have not been inclusive and transformative for all queer, trans and non-binary folks, they have <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0193723512455926">long symbolized</a> the promise of precious refuge for participants. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two smiling women sitting on a couch" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412016/original/file-20210719-17-1lv7uqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=281%2C71%2C1319%2C934&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/412016/original/file-20210719-17-1lv7uqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412016/original/file-20210719-17-1lv7uqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412016/original/file-20210719-17-1lv7uqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412016/original/file-20210719-17-1lv7uqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412016/original/file-20210719-17-1lv7uqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/412016/original/file-20210719-17-1lv7uqy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pat Henschel, left, and Terry Donahue in a scene from the Netflix documentary</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Netflix)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Terry and Pat hid their lesbian selves for more than half a century because they felt they had to and because they could. They left behind rich memorabilia, as if they knew their archive would matter someday. And it does: the film foregrounds the sustaining love and respect between two women who survived repressive, anti-queer attitudes for decades. </p>
<p>Even today, women athletes are featured in <a href="https://theconversation.com/coverage-of-womens-sport-is-pathetic-at-the-best-of-times-the-lockdown-has-made-it-even-worse-140593">only four per cent</a> of mainstream sports media coverage, outside of mass festivals like the Olympics. This invisibility denies viewers access to the awe-inspiring achievements of queer women, whose sporting prowess has always deserved more glory.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Becki L. Ross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Netflix documentary A Secret Love tells the remarkable story of a decades-long relationship between two gay athletes and opens up a conversation about racism, classism and homophobia in the 50s.Becki L. Ross, Professor, Sociology and Social Justice Institute, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1624152021-06-15T12:25:22Z2021-06-15T12:25:22ZSticky baseballs: Explaining the physics of the latest scandal in Major League Baseball<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406219/original/file-20210614-126247-1yxj5ll.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C39%2C2907%2C1916&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It used to be spit balls, but now sticky baseballs are giving pitchers an advantage.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Baseball.jpg#/media/File:Baseball.jpg">Tage Olsin</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cheating in baseball is as old as the game itself, and pitchers’ modifying the ball’s surface is part of that <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Neyer-James-Guide-to-Pitchers/Bill-James/9780743261586">long history</a>. Adding to the lore of cheating is a <a href="https://nypost.com/2021/06/09/questions-and-answers-surrounding-mlbs-sticky-stuff-problem/">new scandal</a> involving pitchers who may be applying sticky substances – what players refer to as “sticky stuff” – to baseballs.</p>
<p>Major League hitters are striking out this season <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-take-another-stab-at-unpacking-the-rising-strikeout-rate/">nearly one in every four times they step to the plate</a>, compared with one in six times in 2005. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eHzYy_EAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">As a sports physicist</a> and longtime baseball fan, I’ve been intrigued by <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2180019">news reports</a> that applying sticky substances to balls can make pitches spin faster. And if pitchers can throw their fastballs, curveballs and sliders with more spin than in previous years, their pitches will be tougher to hit. How does science explain all this?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman struggling to open a jar full of preserves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406220/original/file-20210614-125373-10ppylh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When you can’t get a jar open, increasing friction between your hand and the lid can help.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/the-lid-is-really-tight-royalty-free-image/175213030?adppopup=true">Steex/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sticky stuff increases friction and torque</h2>
<p>If you want to understand what all the sticky fuss is about, you need to know some friction basics.</p>
<p>You’ve surely tried to unscrew a lid from a stubborn jar. If there isn’t enough friction between your fingers and the lid, you may not be able to exert enough torque – the rotational analog of force – to get the lid to turn. One way to get more torque on the lid is to increase the frictional force. In my home, we keep a circular piece of rubber to increase friction and help open tough jars. </p>
<p>Pitchers want more friction between their fingers and the baseball, and they are supposedly using some interesting substances to accomplish this. According to a <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/04/sticky-stuff-is-the-new-steroids-daily-cover">recent Sports Illustrated article</a>, “pitchers have begun experimenting with drumstick resin and surfboard wax.” “They use Tyrus Sticky Grip, Firm Grip spray, Pelican Grip Dip stick and Spider Tack, a glue intended for use in World’s Strongest Man competitions and whose advertisements show someone using it to lift a cinder block with his palm.” That article noted one instance of a ball so sticky players could see fingerprints on it, and another story in which a ball could be stuck to a person’s open hand with his palm facing the ground. All of these sticky substances would increase friction and thus give pitchers a better grip on the ball.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A spinning cylinder with smoke helping to visualize the uneven air currents." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406222/original/file-20210614-131717-1e75bef.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Topspin creates a wake of air that pushes a ball down, as seen in the image above where air is flowing right to left past the metal cylinder in the center that is spinning clockwise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Magnus-anim-canette.gif#/media/File:Magnus-anim-canette.gif">MatSouffNC858s/WkimediaCommons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>More spin makes pitches harder to hit</h2>
<p>Today’s sticky fingers are the latest attempts by players to gain an <a href="https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/MajorLeagueRules.pdf">unfair</a> <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/the-unwritten-rules-of-baseball">advantage</a>. But how does sticky stuff make a pitch harder to hit? It helps increase spin rate. </p>
<p>Unless a pitcher throws a knuckleball, which has very little spin, all baseballs are spinning at well over 1,000 revolutions per minute when they leave pitchers’ hands. That spin creates a force – let’s call it the spin force – that causes baseballs to move and curve in ways that can throw off hitters.</p>
<p>As air smashes into a moving baseball, it doesn’t wrap completely around the ball – it separates off the surface before reaching the back of the ball. Think of water flowing along the sides of a moving boat. The water doesn’t smoothly wrap around the back of the boat – there is a wake of turbulent water behind it. But when a rudder turns the boat, the wake moves off to one side. Newton’s third law says that if the boat pushes water in one direction, water has to push the boat in the opposite direction, causing the boat to turn.</p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-corona-important">The Conversation’s most important coronavirus headlines, weekly in a science newsletter</a></em>]</p>
<p>The same idea applies to a spinning baseball. If the baseball is spinning, the wake of air behind the ball will be asymmetric. So the spin force pushes the ball in the opposite direction from which the wake of air is pushed.</p>
<p>Consider an overhand curveball. In this pitch, a Major League Baseball pitcher pulls down on the front of the ball when he releases it, generating topspin. A top-spinning curveball pushes air upward off the back of the ball, just like a wake coming off one side of a boat. Because the ball pushes the wake of air upward, the air’s force on a curveball is downward. Curveballs thus experience a push downward on their way to the plate, all thanks to the spin force.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A baseball player swinging and missing a pitch." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406224/original/file-20210614-126665-1iiqqfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The extra spin from sticky stuff could make a baseball move 2 inches more compared with pitches in previous years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/taylor-walls-of-the-tampa-bay-rays-swings-at-a-pitch-during-news-photo/1323047032?adppopup=true">Douglas P. DeFelice/Contributor via Getty Images Sport</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How effective is sticky stuff?</h2>
<p>Here is where the alleged cheating comes in. </p>
<p>As with pitchers in the past, a Major League pitcher today could put sticky stuff on his fingers in the locker room, stick some to his uniform or even get some from a teammate. The substances starring in the current scandal would help create more spin. A good pitcher can throw a curveball at 85 mph with a spin rate of 2,400 rpm with about 20 pounds of friction force between the pitcher’s fingers and the ball. <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/">Freely available pitch data</a> shows that some pitchers have increased their spin rate by about 400 rpm on curveballs compared with previous seasons. That’s a 17% increase in spin rate and requires a 17% increase – or an additional 3 pounds – of friction force coming from sticky substances.</p>
<p>For an overhand curveball, an extra 400 rpm of topspin can lead to more than 2 inches of additional vertical drop – which just happens to be the thickness of the sweet spot of a baseball bat. In other words, a Major League Baseball batter familiar with a pitcher’s curveball might swing where he thinks he’ll make great contact, except because the sticky stuff and extra spin the ball will cross the plate 2 inches lower than the batter expects. He’ll either miss the pitch or hit a weak grounder.</p>
<p>Strikeouts are happening at an <a href="https://calltothepen.com/2021/04/17/mlb-strikeouts-killing-game/">all-time high rate</a> and sticky stuff may be one of the culprits. Major League Baseball is already <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31596907/spider-tack-goo-cops-open-secret-answering-20-questions-mlb-foreign-substance-mess">contemplating</a> what to do about all the reports of sticky fingers. Umpires may soon periodically check pitchers during games. </p>
<p>But whatever the league decides, the cat-and-mouse game between players seeking enhanced performance and the league trying to catch them will continue, adding to the rich lore of cheating in baseball.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Eric Goff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pitchers in Major League Baseball have been striking out more batters than ever, and some people say it’s because they’re adding sticky stuff to the balls.John Eric Goff, Professor of Physics, University of LynchburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1572032021-04-25T14:09:07Z2021-04-25T14:09:07ZPandemic Moneyball: How COVID-19 has affected baseball odds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395141/original/file-20210414-15-clxu08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=56%2C7%2C4644%2C3122&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 2020 World Series featured two teams at opposite ends of the salary spectrum: the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays. The richer Dodgers were the winners.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 250px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/ad-auris/pandemic-moneyball--how-covid-19-has-affected-baseball-odds" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The ground-breaking 2004 book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/403233/moneyball-by-michael-lewis/9780393324815"><em>Moneyball</em> by Michael Lewis</a> exposed the use of advanced baseball statistics by the Oakland A’s and the team’s general manager, Billy Beane, to excel in the competitive Major League Baseball marketplace. The book resulted in the resurgence of the use of data analytics tools in MLB and then other sports.</p>
<p>I’m a baseball fan, but in my day job I research game theory as it’s applied to financial situations and data analytics. So I was curious to understand the lasting impact of the “Moneyball effect” on baseball. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2018.11.010">My research examined the “arms race” among MLB teams</a> and how they tried to gain a strategic advantage by using proprietary data tools.</p>
<p>The successful implementation of data analytics by the Oakland Athletics to find undervalued players explained why the team made it to the playoffs each year between 2000 and 2003, despite having one of the lowest payrolls in MLB.</p>
<p>Ironically, the loss of this strategic advantage by the A’s is related to the publication of <em>Moneyball</em> — which became a larger cultural phenomenon when <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/">a movie by the same name</a> (starring Brad Pitt as Billy Beane) was released in 2011.</p>
<h2>A tool used by all teams now</h2>
<p>Before the book was published in 2004, only five MLB teams had established an analytics department within their organizations. By 2017, all 30 teams were using advanced analytics to assess player performance.</p>
<p><a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/961412-mlb-power-rankings-all-30-mlb-teams-by-market-size">Small-market teams</a> like Oakland lost their competitive advantage as richer teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs added advanced analytics to their toolkits. </p>
<p>It’s one thing to be a Moneyball team; it’s another to be a Moneyball team with money. Not only can the richer large-market teams <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/trevor-bauers-102-million-deal-with-the-dodgers-is-unique-heres-why.html">go after the best players</a>, but they can also <a href="https://grantland.com/the-triangle/andrew-friedman-leaves-tampa-bay-rays-for-los-angeles-dodgers-impact/">poach key front office people</a> from the poorer teams.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Billy Beane talks to one of the Oakland Athletics baseball players" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395382/original/file-20210415-17-xu3wbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oakland Athletics minority owner and executive vice-president Billy Beane, right, talks with players before a playoff baseball game in 2018. When Beane was general manager of the A’s in the late 1990s, he was the first baseball executive to embrace the use of advanced analytics to assess the value of baseball players.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Consequently, it’s not an accident the Dodgers have appeared in three of the last five World Series — including their win in 2020. The fact that their opponents last year, the small-market Tampa Bay Rays, even made it to the World Series is nothing short of a miracle.</p>
<h2>The ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’</h2>
<p>One of the problems with baseball’s asymmetric payrolls means teams can be divided into “haves” and “have nots” (with a few franchises falling into a middle group). And those “have nots” now have another issue to deal with: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on baseball revenue.</p>
<p>No spectators were allowed at MLB regular-season games last year and each team has taken <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/baseball-fans-return-for-2021-mlb-season-every-teams-opening-day-plan-for-in-person-attendance/">a different approach to fans in the stands</a> this season. But in most cases, teams will limit attendance to allow social distancing among the fans.</p>
<p>While all teams will see a loss of gate revenue because of the pandemic, poorer teams will suffer more. Richer MLB teams have <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/">other sources of income</a> and substantially larger financial resources, enabling them to weather the storm better than the “have nots.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Pitcher Trevor Bauer is shown pitching in a game" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395886/original/file-20210419-23-2d4v04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2020 World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers improved their pitching this year by signing one of the top free agents: Trevor Bauer’s three-year, $102-million deal makes him one of the the highest-paid players per-year in sports.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>MLB teams <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/12/22/mlb-teams-lost-1-billion-in-2020/?sh=4e038bf017d7">lost US$1 billion in 2020</a>, compared to a profit of $1.5 billion in 2019. <em>Forbes</em> magazine has estimated MLB’s total revenues dropped to $4 billion last year from $10.5 billion in 2019.</p>
<p>And the pandemic has also had an impact on a revenue-sharing program that was first established by MLB in 1996 to lessen the economic inequalities between “have” and “have not” teams. The program was suspended last year and is <a href="https://theathletic.com/2430585/2021/03/08/mlb-is-loaning-teams-money-to-fund-2021-revenue-sharing-but-repayment-is-debated/">only happening in a limited capacity this year</a>. </p>
<h2>Dodgers top total payroll</h2>
<p>To better understand the gap between the “haves” and the “have nots,” let’s look at the <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/">2021 MLB payrolls</a>. The Dodgers are at the top with a total payroll of almost US$250 million while Cleveland is at the bottom with at $49.7 million.</p>
<p>The teams that won the World Series in the past five years (the Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Nationals and Dodgers) are all in the top third of total payroll in 2021. And eight out of the 10 teams that participated in the past five World Series are from the top third of total payroll in 2021 — the only two exceptions are Cleveland in 2016 and the Rays in 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph that shows the salary levels of all 30 Major League Baseball teams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395140/original/file-20210414-15-to1prh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This chart shows the World Series champion L.A. Dodgers have a payroll almost twice the league average of US$130 million.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We already know small-market teams like Oakland no longer have a competitive advantage when it comes to using Moneyball analytics. So do they have any hope of winning it all during another season of pandemic baseball?</p>
<h2>What is the key to winning?</h2>
<p>To under the relationship between team salaries and the odds of winning the World Series, I did an analysis with <a href="https://www.infoworld.com/article/3394399/machine-learning-algorithms-explained.html">machine learning algorithms</a>. These type of algorithms create models that train themselves and learn from their mistakes in an iterative manner and can predict outcomes based on available data.</p>
<p>The analysis showed that a key metric is the payroll of a team’s <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/26-man-roster">26-man active roster</a> — which is different than total payroll because it excludes salaries of injured, suspended or those no longer playing for the team but still being paid.</p>
<p>My model suggests that teams with an active-roster payroll of less than $50 million — specifically Cleveland ($49 million), Pittsburgh ($40.7 million), Baltimore ($24 million), Tampa Bay ($40 million), Texas ($47 million) and Detroit ($48 million) — have almost no statistical chance of winning the World Series.</p>
<p>Those with a payroll between $50 million and $150 million (teams like Miami, Arizona, Seattle, Oakland, Milwaukee, Colorado, Toronto, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Boston, White Sox, St. Louis, and Atlanta) have about a five per cent probability of winning it all.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graphic that shows the plot of an algorithm that predicts the impact of team salaries and the odds of winning the World Series" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395545/original/file-20210417-13-1dp2w6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author used machine learning algorithms to analyze how team salaries impact a team’s odds of winning the World Series. The conclusion: Richer teams have better probability of winning, but there’s not much difference between teams with a roster salary of US$150 million and those that are over $200 million.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Teams that are around the $150-million level are still at the same probability of five per cent. This includes San Francisco ($145 million), the Cubs ($145 million), Washington ($146 million) and Houston ($149 million).</p>
<h2>Money only goes so far</h2>
<p>But the model also suggests that once a team hits $150 million, the probability goes to 10 per cent and doesn’t go up even if salaries increase beyond that point.</p>
<p>This means the Dodgers, with a 26-man payroll of $211 million, are statistically no more likely to win the Series again this year than a team like the Mets with $152 million, San Diego with $155 million, Philadelphia with $160 million, the Yankees with $164 million and the Angels with $177 million.</p>
<p>It’s a tough time to be a small-market team in baseball. The Moneyball advantage is gone. COVID-19 has reduced revenue. And without a big payroll, it’s almost impossible to succeed. </p>
<p>What’s happening in baseball, it seems, is no different than what other business sectors are experiencing during the pandemic — the rich get richer and those less fortunate struggle to compete.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ramy Elitzur does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Twenty years ago, a few small-market Major League Baseball teams used advanced analytics as a secret weapon to compete with large-market teams. But the Moneyball effect is gone now.Ramy Elitzur, Associate Professor, Financial Analysis, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1593162021-04-20T12:35:52Z2021-04-20T12:35:52ZThe ups and downs of European soccer are part of its culture – moving to a US-style ‘closed’ Super League would destroy that<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395883/original/file-20210419-15-7mlgt9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=185%2C0%2C1911%2C1072&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Super League plans have fans screaming into the void, like soccer star Lionel Messi here.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/barcelonas-argentinian-forward-lionel-messi-reacts-during-news-photo/125614181?adppopup=true">Josep Lago/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A dozen of the world’s biggest soccer clubs – including Barcelona, Manchester United and Liverpool FC – announced on April 18, 2021, that they are forming a new European super league, underwritten by a reported <a href="https://apnews.com/article/uefa-could-ban-super-league-players-euro-2020-world-cup-749ce4257b0f9a17b3fc34d60cccd00c">US$5.5 billion in funding from banking giant</a> J.P. Morgan Chase. The competition – membership in which is expected to expand to 20 teams – would supersede the <a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/">UEFA Champions League</a>, which is the competition in which these top-tier teams usually compete.</p>
<p>The clubs have two motives for creating this breakaway league. First, the proposal would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/19/explainer-how-will-the-new-european-super-league-work">significantly increase the number of games played among big clubs</a> from different countries. This would likely attract huge global audiences and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56800611">significantly increase revenues</a> – to be split among the member clubs. Second, the intention is that the founder clubs would be guaranteed a place in the league regardless of how they performed in the previous season. In contrast, clubs have to earn their place in the Champions League and all European national leagues. </p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.kines.umich.edu/directory/stefan-szymanski">expert on sports management</a>, co-author of the book “<a href="https://www.boldtypebooks.com/titles/simon-kuper/soccernomics/9781568588865/">Soccernomics</a>,” and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy/article-abstract/14/28/204/2366354">someone who predicted the super league some 22 years ago</a>, I can appreciate the benefit of more games. UEFA, the governing body for European soccer, was itself about to <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2940389-report-uefa-to-expand-champions-league-to-36-teams-after-super-league-formation">announce a revamped version</a> of the Champions League with more games for the big clubs. It is, I believe, a reasonable response to the level of demand.</p>
<p>But the desire of the elites to insulate themselves from competition and enhance profitability is much more questionable. And it is here that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/soccer-uefa-holds-crisis-meeting-after-breakaway-super-league-launched-2021-04-19/">much of the backlash</a> has been directed.</p>
<h2>A sporting world leagues apart</h2>
<p>To an <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marcedelman/2021/04/19/european-super-league-brings-lucrative-us-sports-model-overseas/">American audience</a>, the move might seem uncontroversial, but to Europeans it represents a fundamental breach with tradition and has raised enormous passions.</p>
<p>All major <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marcedelman/2021/04/19/european-super-league-brings-lucrative-us-sports-model-overseas/">professional leagues in North America are “closed”</a> leagues; obtaining entry to a league is secured by payment of a franchise fee, which for the major leagues would amount to billions of dollars nowadays. </p>
<p>But soccer leagues in Europe have always been “open” leagues. Divisions are ranked according to a recognized hierarchy – the best teams play in the top league, the next-best group in the second, and so on.</p>
<p>Every season the best-performing teams in lower divisions obtain promotion to the next league up, while the worst-performing teams are relegated to the next tier down. This promotion-and-relegation system characterizes the organization of soccer in almost every country in the world, with the U.S. being a notable exception.</p>
<p>The European Commission has <a href="https://www.sportaustria.at/fileadmin/Inhalte/Dokumente/Internationales/EU_European_Model_Sport.pdf">long described the system</a> as “one of the key features of the European model of sport.”</p>
<p>Americans are often puzzled by the commitment of Europeans to this promotion-and-relegation system. After all, promoted teams can be uncompetitive, ensuring relegation 12 months later. And a team currently playing in the fourth tier of its national league system is very unlikely to play in the Champions League – not soon, and probably not ever.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, fans of these <a href="https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/soccer-super-league-could-hurt-smaller-clubs-sports-finance-expert">small clubs</a> responded to news of the Super League with outrage. The belief that one’s team, no matter how small, can make it to the top tier, playing against the best clubs – regardless of the fact that the odds are stacked against this – is a dream many smaller clubs cling to. It is the soccer equivalent of the American dream.</p>
<p>And versions of this dream have happened. The English club Leicester City <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2002/oct/22/newsstory.sport5">went into bankruptcy in 2002</a> and was relegated to the third tier in 2008 – but won the <a href="https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/15447878/putting-leicester-city-5000-1-odds-perspective-other-long-shots-espn-chalk">Premier League at odds of 5,000-1</a> in 2016, guaranteeing it a place among the European elite in the Champions League the following year.</p>
<h2>An own goal?</h2>
<p>Without the opportunity to rise up the system, the European soccer system will end up much like baseball in America – a sport dominated by one major league, controlling a collection of minor league teams, with no lower-level competition to speak of.</p>
<p>But baseball in the U.S. needn’t have taken that direction. A century ago, <a href="https://www.hpb.com/products/baseball-the-golden-age-9780195059137">American baseball was more like European soccer</a> – every town of any size had a team playing in a league that commanded significant local interest. History books tell us that these teams and leagues were <a href="http://doi.org/10.1353/nin.2004.0059">killed off by radio and TV</a>, giving fans access to a higher level of competition that was deemed to be more attractive to watch.</p>
<p>But that’s not quite the whole story. Europe got radio and TV too, but every small town has its own team competing in a league at some level in the hierarchy. These teams did not die when people were able to watch higher-quality soccer on TV – because these teams embodied the one quality that lies at the core of both sport and human survival: hope. Ask any fans of a small club about whether their team could one day rise to the top, and they will likely tell you that they believe.</p>
<p>What Europeans fear, and loathe, about the proposed Super League is that it will be a first step toward ending the promotion-and-relegation system, which to supporters across the continent amounts to saying that it is the first step toward extinguishing hope.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Manchester United fans unfurl a banner against the Glazer ownership of the club." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395887/original/file-20210419-19-14oxm90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395887/original/file-20210419-19-14oxm90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395887/original/file-20210419-19-14oxm90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395887/original/file-20210419-19-14oxm90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395887/original/file-20210419-19-14oxm90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395887/original/file-20210419-19-14oxm90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395887/original/file-20210419-19-14oxm90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Opposition to Manchester United’s American owner was evident even before the Super League announcement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/manchester-united-fans-unfurl-a-banner-against-the-glazer-news-photo/463776989?adppopup=true">Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is also not lost on European fans that three of the prime movers of the Super League are American owners of major franchises – the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/european-super-league-neville-manchester-united-b1834029.html">Glazer family</a>, which owns both Manchester United and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/483802-liverpool-sold-after-years-of-uncertainty-to-boston-red-sox-owner-john-henry">John Henry</a>, Liverpool and Boston Red Sox owner; and Arsenal and Colorado Avalanche owner <a href="https://www.football.london/arsenal-fc/news/stan-kroenke-arsenal-mikel-arteta-20418137">Stan Kroenke</a>.</p>
<p>The proposed Super League would in all likelihood increase both their profits and their power within the game. Already, the <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9488185/UEFA-official-fans-slam-snake-American-billionaire-team-owners-European-Super-League.html">backlash has featured an element of anti-Americanism</a>. And given the high feelings across Europe to this proposal, that could become very ugly.</p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159316/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Szymanski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>More competitive games between top soccer clubs is desirable but creating a ‘closed’ system would harm a soccer culture built on dreams, says the man who predicted the Super League two decades ago.Stefan Szymanski, Professor of Sport Management, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1575342021-04-02T17:05:14Z2021-04-02T17:05:14ZBaseball stadiums are filling up – but an analysis of the NFL’s 2020 season holds a warning about COVID-19 case spikes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393432/original/file-20210405-21-1hfklub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C26%2C5952%2C3935&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Texas Rangers packed the stands for their home opener on April 5, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BlueJaysRangersBaseball/df6bc834db1c4aa183ef4761f03fb2f9/photo">AP Photo/Jeffrey McWhorter</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Baseball season is here, and thousands of cheering fans are back in the ballparks after a year of empty seats. Most teams, still cautious of the COVID-19 risk, are keeping their stadiums to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/sports/baseball/mlb-stadium-capacity-2021.html">less than 30% capacity</a> for now. Only the Texas Rangers packed the ballpark for the team’s home opener on April 5, 2021. </p>
<p>Many of these attendance decisions are being made with minimal data about the heightened risk that players and fans face of getting COVID-19 at stadiums or arenas and spreading it the community. </p>
<p>There is one large-scale experiment that can offer some insight: the National Football League’s 2020 season. </p>
<p>The NFL played 269 games in 30 cities, some with thousands of fans on hand, others with none. To help everyone understand the risks, we and other colleagues who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RTZUNAgAAAAJ&amp;hl=en">study large-scale risks</a> <a href="https://www.usm.edu/advanced-analytics-security/justin-kurland.php">to professional sports</a> crunched the numbers. What we found can help teams and fans decide how best to enjoy their favorite games.</p>
<h2>How many fans is too many fans?</h2>
<p>Twenty of the 32 NFL franchises allowed fans in their stadiums during games. A few of those games had upwards of 20,000 people.</p>
<p>The NFL’s decision to allow fans at games enabled us to examine the potential influence that large sports events can have on local viral transmission. Although we could not definitively assess cause and effect, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3805754">the results</a> were striking.</p>
<p>We found that in counties where teams had 20,000 fans or more at games, there were more than twice as many COVID-19 cases in the three weeks after games compared to counties with other teams. The case rate per 100,000 residents was also twice as high. Neighboring counties also experienced higher case counts and rates in the three weeks following games with lots of fans in the seats.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fans arrive at Tampa's Raymond James Stadium for the Super Bowl on Feb. 7, 2021" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390952/original/file-20210322-15-bt0olm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/390952/original/file-20210322-15-bt0olm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390952/original/file-20210322-15-bt0olm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390952/original/file-20210322-15-bt0olm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390952/original/file-20210322-15-bt0olm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390952/original/file-20210322-15-bt0olm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/390952/original/file-20210322-15-bt0olm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When football stadiums had more than 20,000 fans on hand, the surrounding communities saw a spike in COVID-19 cases within three weeks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChiefsBuccaneersSuperBowlFootball/6e6f7b463331492d917e010b6a9d0c84/photo">AP Photo/Lynne Sladky</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By comparing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-county-data-us.html">COVID-19 case data</a> and <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/attendance">game attendance data</a> reported by ESPN, we found patterns that carried across the 30 football communities. <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3805754">The study</a> has been submitted to the medical journal The Lancet for peer review and was released April 2, 2021, in preprint format.</p>
<p>We found very little evidence of COVID-19 spikes associated with fan-attended games in the first seven days after games, which wasn’t surprising given the incubation period of the virus. However, the two-week and three-week windows after games were markedly different, with a significantly greater rate of spikes in COVID-19 cases being identified in communities that had fans at games compared to those that did not.</p>
<p>When stadiums had fewer than 5,000 fans in the stands, we didn’t see elevated case numbers like we did in those that permitted more than 20,000 fans. </p>
<p>The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, host of the Super Bowl, was one of the teams that permitted the maximum number of fans. The spikes observed in Hillsborough County, Florida, after home games were quite pronounced. Roughly 18 to 21 days after nearly every home Bucs game with fans in attendance, there was a spike in cases. This repeated pattern of spikes in COVID-19 case rates reflects the time between exposure and the illness developing, being tested and reported. A <a href="https://bookdown.org/justin_b_kurland/miami-dolphins/">similar pattern</a> appeared across nearly every team that allowed over 5,000 fans in the stadium this past NFL season.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Scatter chart showing case numbers by day in relation to game days" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393206/original/file-20210401-21-1kqym5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/393206/original/file-20210401-21-1kqym5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393206/original/file-20210401-21-1kqym5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393206/original/file-20210401-21-1kqym5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393206/original/file-20210401-21-1kqym5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393206/original/file-20210401-21-1kqym5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/393206/original/file-20210401-21-1kqym5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">COVID-19 case number rose consistently after NFL games in Tampa, Florida, when thousands of fans were in attendance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Kurland/University of Southern Mississippi</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Yes, there’s still a risk</h2>
<p>While COVID-19 vaccinations are <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations">ramping up</a> nationwide, much of the public is still vulnerable to this lethal disease. As of April 5, 2021, only <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations">about 19%</a> of the U.S. population had been fully vaccinated. How many people may have natural immunity from having gotten the virus and how long immunity will last isn’t known.</p>
<p>Being outdoors does lower the risk compared to being in a room, but when infected people are <a href="https://theconversation.com/being-outdoors-doesnt-mean-youre-safe-from-covid-19-a-white-house-event-showed-what-not-to-do-147756">shouting or cheering</a>, they can spread the virus farther. </p>
<p>Major League Baseball is encouraging precautions this season, including <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-fans-return-in-2021-tracking-every-baseball-teams-attendance-plan-for-upcoming-season/">recommending fans and players wear masks</a> while they aren’t on the field and practice social distancing. But it will be up to each team to decide how tightly packed their fans can be.</p>
<h2>The takeaway for games and large gatherings</h2>
<p>The 2020 NFL season carries important lessons about mass gatherings during infectious disease outbreaks.</p>
<p>The research suggests using a phased approach, with the number of fans attending sports and entertainment events slowly increasing only after officials have evaluated the COVID-19 case spread in the local and surrounding communities. Such an approach may be necessary until enough people are vaccinated to stop the spread of the virus. Even then, sports teams and event planners should still monitor public health data for future risks.</p>
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<p>The number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. has dropped significantly since its peak after the Thanksgiving and winter holidays, but the risk isn’t gone. The daily case count is <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases">still higher than last September</a>, and the U.S. is also seeing a rise in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uk-variant-is-likely-deadlier-more-infectious-and-becoming-dominant-but-the-vaccines-still-work-well-against-it-156951">coronavirus variants</a> that spread more easily than the initial virus. </p>
<p>Fans and sports and other event planners will need to take all of that into account as they make decisions about upcoming seasons, concerts and the Summer Olympics. That includes a boxing match expected to be attended by more than 60,000 spectators in <a href="https://www.espn.com/boxing/story/_/id/31093424/canelo-alvarez-billy-joe-saunders-fight-lands-att-stadium-dallas-60000+-fans-expected">Dallas over Cinco De Mayo weekend</a>. </p>
<p>NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has already said <a href="https://www.nfl.com/news/commissioner-roger-goodell-nfl-expects-to-have-full-stadiums-for-2021-season">he expects full stadiums</a> when football season starts again in the fall. </p>
<p><em>Wanda Leal of Texas A&M San Antonio, Erin Sorrell of Georgetown University and Nicole Leeper Piquero of the University of Miami contributed to this article.</em></p>
<p><em>This article was updated with the Texas Rangers game before a packed stadium on April 5 and photo</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157534/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Crowd size matters. When football games had thousands of fans in attendance, COVID-19 case numbers tended to spike within three weeks.Alex R. Piquero, Chair of the Department of Sociology and Arts & Sciences Distinguished Scholar, University of MiamiJustin Kurland, Director of Research, National Center for Spectator Sports Safety and Security, The University of Southern MississippiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.