tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/clean-energy-future-3344/articlesClean Energy Future – The Conversation2023-09-06T19:11:25Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2114742023-09-06T19:11:25Z2023-09-06T19:11:25ZHow recycling could solve the shortage of minerals essential to clean energy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544662/original/file-20230824-21082-9pxfgr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=530%2C0%2C4895%2C2651&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An ambitious clean energy transition requires more of the metals and minerals used to build clean energy technologies.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What do silver, silicon and gallium have in common? These expensive raw materials are essential components of our various solar energy technologies. What about neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium? These rare earth metals are used to <a href="https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/2ea6ecb2-40e2-11eb-b27b-01aa75ed71a1/language-en">build the powerful magnets in wind turbines</a>. </p>
<p>Keeping our planet liveable requires <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">accelerated clean energy transitions</a> by governments — <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">global carbon emissions must</a> halve by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2050. </p>
<p>But a more ambitious clean energy transition requires more of the metals and minerals used to build clean energy technologies. As the global energy sector <a href="https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review">shifts from fossil fuels to clean energy</a>, the demand of <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/critical-minerals">precious metals</a> — known as critical minerals — is increasing.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/critical-minerals-are-vital-for-renewable-energy-we-must-learn-to-mine-them-responsibly-131547">Critical minerals are vital for renewable energy. We must learn to mine them responsibly</a>
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<p>A striking example is lithium, a metal used in electric vehicle batteries. Between 2018 and 2022, <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/australias-potential-in-the-lithium-market">the demand for lithium increased by 25 per cent per year</a>. Under a net-zero scenario, lithium demand by 2040 could be <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary">over 40 times what it was in 2020</a>.</p>
<h2>Supply and demand</h2>
<p>The current challenge lies in a supply and demand mismatch. The projected demand for critical minerals exceeds the available supply. Basic principles of economics dictate higher prices for these minerals. </p>
<p>In addition, critical minerals have a geographically concentrated supply. These metals are only extracted from <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/42881">a handful of countries and are overwhelmingly processed in China</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph showing the demand for important metals is outpacing supply" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544654/original/file-20230824-21-w1aau4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The current production rates of critical metals are likely to be inadequate to satisfy future demand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(International Monetary Fund)</span></span>
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<p>China, for example, <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2023/clean-energy-supply-chains-vulnerabilities">extracts 60 per cent and processes 90 per cent</a> of all rare earth elements. In comparison, the top oil-producing country — the United States — accounts for only <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ffd2a83b-8c30-4e9d-980a-52b6d9a86fdc/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf">18 per cent of the extraction and 20 per cent of the processing of the whole industry</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A bar graph that illustrates a select few countries are responsible for the extraction of selected minerals and fossil fuels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544829/original/file-20230825-15-3y1uy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Share of top producing countries in the extraction of selected minerals and fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(IEA)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The geographical concentration may result in additional supply constraints. Indonesia, the world’s first nickel producer, has progressively <a href="https://www.iea.org/policies/16084-prohibition-of-the-export-of-nickel-ore">banned the export of nickel ore overseas</a> in an attempt to strengthen domestic processing.</p>
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<img alt="A bar graph that illustrates a select few countries are responsible for the processing of selected minerals and fossil fuels" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544830/original/file-20230825-28-735aa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Share of top producing countries in total processing of selected minerals and fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(IEA)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The lack of geographical diversity in supply can increase price volatility. Lithium prices <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lithium-slump-puts-chinas-spot-price-under-spotlight-andy-home-2023-05-19/">rose more than 400 per cent in 2022, before dropping again by 65 per cent in 2023</a>. Copper prices soared in Peru following <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/disruptions-raise-chance-copper-supply-tightness-2023-02-03/">social unrest and mine blockades</a>.</p>
<p>China, which controls 98 per cent of the gallium supply, created a 40 per cent spike in 2023 on gallium prices by setting <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-controls-take-effect-wait-gallium-germanium-export-permits-begins-2023-08-01/">severe restriction on exports</a> due to “national security reasons.”</p>
<p>If supply constraints continue, the prices of critical minerals could become too high. Installing clean energy could become too expensive, and governments may find it hard to reach their clean energy targets. </p>
<p>The demand and supply balance must be restored by one of two ways: either by decreasing the demand for critical materials or increasing their supply.</p>
<h2>Restoring balance</h2>
<p>The most obvious way to restore the balance between supply and demand — more mining — is tricky. Mining is environmentally destructive and <a href="https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/will-mining-resources-needed-clean-energy-cause-problems-environment">damages ecosystems and communities</a>. Plans for opening new mines in <a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/energie/mines-de-lithium-en-france-des-projets-mais-encore-beaucoup-d-interrogations_5546643.html">France</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/serbian-pm-sees-no-chance-reviving-rio-tinto-lithium-project-2022-12-13/">Serbia</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102912">Portugal</a> have seen massive social opposition, leaving their future uncertain. </p>
<p>Opening a new mine can take <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/discovery-to-production-averages-15-7-years-for-127-mines">more than 15 years on average</a>, so projects started today might arrive too late. While some capacity can be built quicker by reopening old mines, and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-is-embarking-on-a-mining-renaissance-winning-over-locals-is-proving-a-challenge-b7d14f5f">some projects are already underway</a>, supply imbalances are expected to be <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/afc35261-41b2-47d4-86d6-d5d77fc259be/CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023.pdf">inevitable by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Beyond mining, two alternative practical approaches exist. The first is to reduce the demand for critical minerals by clean energy technologies. With innovation and research and development, clean energy products can be redesigned to use less material in each generation. </p>
<p>The silver content in solar cells <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/solar-driven-silver-demand-set-to-dim-as-sector-innovates-60533352">dropped by 80 per cent in one decade</a>. Likewise, the cathodes in new electric vehicle batteries <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/battery-makers-slash-cobalt-intensity-in-the-face-of-accelerating-demand-71813202">contain up to six times less cobalt</a> than older models.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A block of a silvery mineral is held in gloved hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544661/original/file-20230824-27-8645j8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Refined tellurium, a rare mineral used in solar panels, is shown at the Rio Tinto Kennecott refinery in May 2022 in Magna, Utah.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The second alternative is to increase the supply of critical minerals by recovering them from older and used clean technology products via advanced recycling. Decommissioned solar panels might no longer produce energy but can be a valuable source of silver or silicon. </p>
<p>Our past research has shown that <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/06/the-dark-side-of-solar-power">discarded solar panels could outweigh new installations by the next decade</a> as installers <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2019/short-lived-solar-panels-economic-0919">seek to replace older panels with newer, more efficient ones</a>.</p>
<p>By recovering critical minerals from this waste <a href="https://hillnotes.ca/2023/04/21/electrical-and-electronic-equipment-waste-an-urban-mine-with-great-potential/">in a process known as urban mining</a>, we could cover the demand for the materials needed for future energy installations.</p>
<h2>Recycling is the way forward</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4424516">recent research with our colleague Luk Van Wassenhove</a> compares the economic consequences of these two alternative approaches. If the scarcity of critical minerals is not extreme, reducing the critical material content of clean energy products would be the way to go. </p>
<p>However, unintended consequences can be expected akin to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2018.00026">rebound effect or Jevon’s paradox</a>: by improving the efficiency of usage of critical minerals, producers can end up consuming more of it. </p>
<p>As clean energy products use less critical material, their improved profitability could increase production even more. As a result, decreasing the material usage per product won’t necessarily lead to a decrease in critical material demand overall.</p>
<p>In contrast, our research suggests that recycling decommissioned products is not subject to such a rebound effect. A steady stream of recycled materials from end-of-life products protects producers from volatile commodity prices and better facilitates the critical energy transition.</p>
<p>Setting up a recycling ecosystem requires greater effort than marginally changing a product’s design. Firms need a cost-efficient reverse logistics system, recycling plants and infrastructure to get enough end-of-use products back and to process them. Sizeable initial capital investments will take time to recover and require firms and policymakers to adopt a long-term mindset.</p>
<p>But there’s room for optimism. The start-up ROSI Solar opened its first recycling plant in 2023, making France a pioneer in <a href="https://recyclinginternational.com/business/mega-solar-recycling-plant-not-a-dream-of-the-future/53692/">recovering high-purity silicon, silver and copper from end-of-use solar panels</a>. </p>
<p>Likewise, the U.S.-based <a href="https://www.solarcycle.us/">SOLARCYCLE can recycle 95 per cent of valuable materials in solar panels</a>. Many electric vehicle makers, like <a href="https://www.autoblog.com/2023/07/04/nissan-takes-the-long-complex-approach-to-recycling-old-ev-batteries/">Tesla, Renault and Nissan</a>, have started projects to recycle batteries and ensure a riskless cobalt, nickel and lithium supply. Recycling may indeed be the path to affordable clean energy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211474/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The demand for the minerals needed to build clean energy technology currently exceeds the available supply. If this issue continues, governments may find it hard to reach their clean energy targets.Serasu Duran, Assistant Professor, Operations and Supply Chain Management at Haskayne School of Business, University of CalgaryAtalay Atasu, Professor of Technology and Operations Management, INSEADClara Carrera, PhD Candidate in Technology and Operations Management, INSEADLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1886402022-08-16T15:00:24Z2022-08-16T15:00:24ZInfluential oil company scenarios for combating climate change don’t actually meet the Paris Agreement goals, our new analysis shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479255/original/file-20220816-20495-lz4b8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C116%2C2928%2C1877&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">BP, Shell and Equinor all produce widely used scenarios of energy's future.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/s-huge-oil-refinery-complex-continues-its-24-hour-news-photo/52204994">Christopher Furlong/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Several major oil companies, including BP and Shell, periodically publish scenarios forecasting the future of the energy sector. In recent years, they have added visions for how climate change might be addressed, including scenarios that they claim are consistent with the international Paris climate agreement.</p>
<p>These scenarios are hugely influential. They are used by companies making investment decisions and, importantly, by policymakers as a basis for their decisions.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-shell-says-new-brazil-sized-forest-would-be-needed-to-meet-1-5c-climate-goal/">are they really compatible</a> with the Paris Agreement?</p>
<p>Many of the future scenarios show continued reliance on fossil fuels. But data gaps and a lack of transparency can make it difficult to compare them with independent scientific assessments, such as the global reviews <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31734-1">study</a> published Aug. 16, 2022, in Nature Communications, our international team analyzed four of these scenarios and two others by the International Energy Agency using a new method we developed for comparing such energy scenarios head-to-head. We determined that five of them – including frequently cited scenarios from <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/overview.html">BP</a>, <a href="https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html">Shell</a> and <a href="https://www.equinor.com/sustainability/energy-perspectives">Equinor</a> – were not consistent with the Paris goals.</p>
<h2>What the Paris Agreement expects</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">2015 Paris Agreement</a>, signed by nearly all countries, sets out <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-1-5c-and-well-below-2c-are-part-and-parcel-of-one-temperature-goal/">a few criteria</a> to meet its objectives.</p>
<p>One is to ensure the global average temperature increase stays well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) compared to pre-industrial era levels, and to pursue efforts to keep warming under 1.5°C (2.7 F). The agreement also states that global emissions should peak as soon as possible and reach at least <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">net zero</a> greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century. Pathways that meet these objectives show that carbon dioxide emissions should fall even faster, reaching net zero by about 2050. </p>
<p>Scientific evidence shows that overshooting 1.5°C of warming, even temporarily, would have harmful <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2021/the-science-of-temperature-overshoots-impacts-uncertainties-and-implications-for-near-term-emissions-reductions/">consequences for the global climate</a>. Those consequences are not necessarily reversible, and it’s unclear how well people, ecosystems and economies would <a href="https://theconversation.com/transformational-change-is-coming-to-how-people-live-on-earth-un-climate-adaptation-report-warns-which-path-will-humanity-choose-177604">be able to adapt</a>.</p>
<h2>How the scenarios perform</h2>
<p>We have been working with the nonprofit science and policy research institute <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/">Climate Analytics</a> to better understand the implications of the Paris Agreement for <a href="http://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/">global and national</a> decarbonization pathways – the paths countries can take to cut their greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, we have explored the roles that <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/coal-phase-out/">coal</a> and <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/latest/report-why-gas-is-the-new-coal/">natural gas</a> can play as the world transitions away from fossil fuels.</p>
<p>When we analyzed the energy companies’ decarbonization scenarios, we found that <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/overview.html">BP</a>’s, <a href="https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html">Shell</a>’s and <a href="https://www.equinor.com/sustainability/energy-perspectives">Equinor</a>’s scenarios overshoot the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement by a significant margin, with only <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/overview.html">BP</a>’s having a greater than 50% chance of subsequently drawing temperatures down to 1.5°C by 2100. </p>
<p>These scenarios also showed higher near-term use of coal and long-term use of gas for electricity production than Paris-compatible scenarios, such as those assessed by the IPCC. Overall, the energy company scenarios also feature higher levels of carbon dioxide emissions than Paris-compatible scenarios. </p>
<p>Of the six scenarios, we determined that only the International Energy Agency’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">Net Zero by 2050</a> scenario sketches out an energy future that is compatible with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal.</p>
<p>We found this scenario has a greater than 33% chance of keeping warming from ever exceeding 1.5°C, a 50% chance of having temperatures 1.5°C warmer or less in 2100, and a nearly 90% chance of keeping warming always below 2°C. This is in line with the criteria we use to assess <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-1-5c-and-well-below-2c-are-part-and-parcel-of-one-temperature-goal/">Paris Agreement consistency</a>, and also in line with the approach taken in the IPCC’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/">Special Report on 1.5°C</a>, which highlights pathways with no or limited overshoot to be 1.5°C compatible.</p>
<p><iframe id="YRlxE" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/YRlxE/9/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Getting the right picture of decarbonization</h2>
<p>When any group publishes future energy scenarios, it’s useful to have a transparent way to make an apples-to-apples comparison and evaluate the temperature implications. Most of the corporate scenarios, with the exception of Shell’s Sky 1.5 scenario, don’t extend beyond midcentury and focus on carbon dioxide without assessing other greenhouse gases. </p>
<p>Our method uses a transparent procedure to extend each pathway to 2100 and estimate emissions of other gases, which allows us to calculate the temperature outcomes of these scenarios using <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-role-emulator-models-play-in-climate-change-projections/">simple climate models</a>.</p>
<p>Without a consistent basis for comparison, there is a risk that policymakers and businesses will have an inaccurate picture about the pathways available for decarbonizing economies.</p>
<p>Meeting the 1.5°C goal will be challenging. The planet has already warmed about <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures">1.1°C since pre-industrial times</a>, and people are suffering through deadly heat waves, droughts, wildfires and extreme storms linked to climate change. There is little room for false starts and dead-ends as countries transform their energy, agricultural and industrial systems on the way to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188640/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Brecha is affiliated with Climate Analytics in Berlin, Germany. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gaurav Ganti is affiliated with Climate Analytics in Berlin, Germany.</span></em></p>Most claiming to be compatible with the climate agreement show a strong continuing reliance on natural gas and coal.Robert Brecha, Professor of Sustainability, University of DaytonGaurav Ganti, Ph.D. Student in Geography, Humboldt University of BerlinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1852632022-06-21T11:49:35Z2022-06-21T11:49:35ZHere’s how to meet Biden’s 2030 climate goals and dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions – with today’s technology<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469358/original/file-20220616-12-7eyqlg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C948%2C630&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Clean energy and electric vehicles are key to a successful energy transition.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/electrification-futures.html">NREL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Unprecedented forest fires in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/grim-2022-drought-outlook-for-western-us-offers-warnings-for-the-future-as-climate-change-brings-a-hotter-thirstier-atmosphere-182640">drought-stricken western United States</a>. Tropical storms and rising seas threatening the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Sizzling heat across large swaths of the country. As climate change unfolds before our eyes, what can the U.S. do to sharply and rapidly reduce <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-country">its share</a> of the greenhouse gas emissions that are causing it?</p>
<p>The Biden administration <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">has committed</a> to reduce those emissions 50% by 2030 below 2005 levels. That’s a critical first step of a global energy transition that <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/net-zero-ghg-emissions-questions-answered">must achieve net-zero</a> emissions by midcentury to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 F) and thereby avert the worst impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>Twenty years ago, I would have regarded the U.S. 2030 pledge as crazy talk. But a new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn0661">study in the journal Science</a> that I co-authored, which compares results from six independent analyses conducted by academic, industry and nongovernmental organization researchers, lays out a road map to the 50% target that’s both doable and affordable.</p>
<p>So, what’s changed since the early 2000s?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two EVs being charged in a driveway" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469366/original/file-20220616-16-nnk0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469366/original/file-20220616-16-nnk0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469366/original/file-20220616-16-nnk0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469366/original/file-20220616-16-nnk0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469366/original/file-20220616-16-nnk0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469366/original/file-20220616-16-nnk0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469366/original/file-20220616-16-nnk0e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ramping up renewable energy production is crucial for the shift to electric vehicles to pay off.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-electric-car-and-a-plug-in-hybrid-car-charge-at-a-public-news-photo/1180954684">Sean Gallup/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Back then it seemed that without major policy measures, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would continue to rise indefinitely. However, inexpensive natural gas and falling costs of solar and wind power, combined with some modest state and federal renewable energy programs, resulted in a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks-1990-2020">more than 20% reduction</a> in annual emissions between 2005 and 2020. </p>
<p>With that reduction under our belts, reaching the 2030 target will require a further reduction of about 37% from current levels. That puts the target closer, but it’s still a bigger drop in 10 years than the U.S. achieved over the past 15 years.</p>
<p>Our study shows that by exploiting declining costs of zero- and low-carbon energy sources in a more aggressive and focused way, the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn0661">can meet its target within eight years</a> – all while substantially reducing its dependence on fossil fuels, including <a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/">high-priced gasoline</a>, and cutting back the air pollution, climate and health impacts resulting from their combustion.</p>
<h2>A new road map for the US energy transition</h2>
<p>While there are differences among the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn0661">six analyses in our study</a>, all find that most of the needed emissions reductions – about 70% to 90% – can come from the electric power and transportation sectors. These can be achieved through a further transition to solar and wind power as costs for those technologies continue to drop.</p>
<p>Solar and wind can’t do it all; we found that natural gas – some of it accompanied by technology that captures the carbon emissions released during its combustion – and nuclear power and hydropower can play supporting roles.</p>
<p>Much of the needed emissions reductions – about 10% to 25% – can be achieved through a rapid transition to electric light-duty vehicles along with additional reductions from freight transportation. Our study shows that electric vehicles, which accounted for <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a39998609/ev-sales-turning-point/">about 4% of new car sales</a> in the U.S. in 2021, would need to rise to between 34% and 100% of sales by 2030 to meet that target. That’s a huge jump. But it now appears that <a href="https://www.qad.com/blog/2021/05/why-the-ev-is-now-cheaper-than-an-ice-vehicle">battery costs</a> have fallen enough to allow production of EVs at a cost equivalent to that of conventional vehicles. Moreover, EVs are typically cheaper to operate and maintain, further reducing total ownership costs.</p>
<p><iframe id="jMCwC" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jMCwC/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>While our study finds that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn0661">most of the needed emission reductions</a> can come from electric power and transportation, other sectors of the economy – including industry, agriculture and buildings – must also shift to low- and zero-carbon energy sources to meet the 2030 goal. The key challenges for these sectors include developing technology to eliminate emissions from energy-intensive processes, such as chemical, iron and steel production, and retrofitting existing homes and businesses with <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-just-declared-heat-pumps-and-solar-panels-essential-to-national-defense-heres-why-and-the-challenges-ahead-184632">electric heat pumps</a> in a timely manner.</p>
<p>That’s a lot to accomplish in just eight years. It will require an unprecedented buildout of electric power production and transmission capacity, a rapid ramp-up of electric vehicle production and sales, and a nationwide deployment of EV recharging stations.</p>
<h2>Climate and health benefits</h2>
<p>At the same time, by helping to avoid the worst effects of climate change, implementing this road map would reduce the national cost of damage from climate change while encouraging innovation. And significantly reducing air pollution resulting from fossil fuel combustion would also reduce related health costs.</p>
<p>For example, the smog produced by fossil fuel combustion exacerbates asthma and related respiratory diseases, leading to premature deaths. Some of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn0661">six analyses</a> we reviewed found that the reduction in premature deaths – which equate to lost productivity and additional health costs – from reduced fine particulates in the air was by itself enough to offset the cost of implementing the U.S. energy transition road map described in the study.</p>
<h2>Policy options</h2>
<p>Given the scale and pace of the transformations needed to reach the U.S. 2030 climate target, action must be taken immediately and sustained throughout the decade to succeed. Many states have already made strong commitments and implemented policies to achieve them, but a coordinated national strategy is needed.</p>
<p>The six analyses we reviewed assume different combinations of strategies, including tax incentives, subsidies, regulations and carbon pricing. Each approach has its <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/metcalf_web.pdf">pluses and minuses</a>, but any successful policy must focus on affordable and equitable solutions and recognize that one size does not fit all. For example, transportation solutions in rural areas will likely differ from those appropriate in dense urban areas, and new construction may sometimes be more cost-effective than retrofitting older buildings.</p>
<p>The Biden administration’s proposed way forward, the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/01/democrats-urge-biden-to-pass-climate-change-part-of-build-back-better.html">Build Back Better plan</a> targeting funding to help communities build resilience to the impacts of climate change and expand clean energy, is stalled in Congress. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Reilly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The road map for a more sustainable future starts with clean energy and fossil-fuel-free transportation.John Reilly, Co-Director Emeritus of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Senior Lecturer Emeritus at the MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1676052021-09-10T12:27:25Z2021-09-10T12:27:25ZBiden’s proposed tenfold increase in solar power would remake the US electricity system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420320/original/file-20210909-17-1eu6g4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1997%2C1314&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Solar panels on the roof of the Casa Dominguez low-income housing development in East Rancho Dominguez, Calif.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-solar-panels-on-the-roof-of-the-complex-in-casa-news-photo/566068839">Lawrence K. Ho/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>President Joe Biden has called for <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">major clean energy investments</a> as a way to curb climate change and generate jobs. On Sept. 8, 2021, the White House <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-futures-study">released a report</a> produced by the U.S. Department of Energy that found that solar power could generate up to 45% of the U.S. electricity supply by 2050, compared to <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-energy-united-states">less than 4% today</a>. We asked Joshua D. Rhodes, an energy technology and policy researcher at the University of Texas at Austin, what it would take to meet this target.</em></p>
<h2>Why such a heavy focus on solar power? Doesn’t a low-carbon future require many types of clean energy?</h2>
<p>The Energy Department’s <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-releases-solar-futures-study-providing-blueprint-zero-carbon-grid">Solar Futures Study</a> lays out three future pathways for the U.S. grid: business as usual; decarbonization, meaning a massive shift to low-carbon and carbon-free energy sources; and decarbonization with economy-wide electrification of activities that are powered now by fossil fuels.</p>
<p>It concludes that the latter two scenarios would require approximately 1,050-1,570 gigawatts of solar power, which would meet about 44%-45% of expected electricity demand in 2050. For perspective, one gigawatt of generating capacity is equivalent to about <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/how-much-power-1-gigawatt">3.1 million solar panels or 364 large-scale wind turbines</a>.</p>
<p>The rest would come mostly from a mix of other low- or zero-carbon sources, including wind, nuclear, hydropower, biopower, geothermal and combustion turbines run on zero-carbon synthetic fuels such as hydrogen. Energy storage capacity – systems such as large installations of high-capacity batteries – would also expand at roughly the same rate as solar. </p>
<p>One advantage solar power has over many other low-carbon technologies is that <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar-resource-maps.html">most of the U.S. has lots of sunshine</a>. Wind, hydropower and geothermal resources aren’t so evenly distributed: There are large zones where these resources are poor or nonexistent. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420296/original/file-20210909-23-lu2ajp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of yearly U.S. solar resources." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420296/original/file-20210909-23-lu2ajp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420296/original/file-20210909-23-lu2ajp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420296/original/file-20210909-23-lu2ajp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420296/original/file-20210909-23-lu2ajp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420296/original/file-20210909-23-lu2ajp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420296/original/file-20210909-23-lu2ajp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420296/original/file-20210909-23-lu2ajp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most areas of the U.S. can generate at least some solar power year-round. This map shows annual global horizontal irradiance – the amount of sunlight that strikes a horizontal surface on the ground.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nrel.gov/gis/assets/images/solar-annual-ghi-2018-usa-scale-01.jpg">NREL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Relying more heavily on region-specific technologies would mean developing them extremely densely where they are most abundant. It also would require building more high-voltage transmission lines to move that energy over long distances, which could increase costs and draw opposition from landowners.</p>
<h2>Is generating 45% of U.S. electricity from solar power by 2050 feasible?</h2>
<p>I think it would be technically possible but not easy. It would require an accelerated and sustained deployment far larger than what the U.S. has achieved so far, even as <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48736#">the cost of solar panels has fallen dramatically</a>. Some regions have <a href="https://twitter.com/tylerhnorris/status/1435635206321541125?s=20">attained this rate of growth</a>, albeit from low starting points and usually not for long periods.</p>
<p>The Solar Futures Study estimates that producing 45% of the nation’s electricity from solar power by 2050 would require deploying about 1,600 gigawatts of solar generation. That’s a 1,450% increase from the 103 gigawatts that are <a href="https://www.seia.org/us-solar-market-insight">installed in the U.S. today</a>. For perspective, there are currently about <a href="https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860/">1,200 gigawatts of electricity generation capacity</a> of all types on the U.S. power grid.</p>
<p>The report assumes that 10%-20% of this new solar capacity would be deployed on homes and businesses. The rest would be large utility-scale deployments, mostly solar panels, plus some large-scale solar thermal systems that use mirrors to reflect the sun to a central tower.</p>
<p>Assuming that utility-scale solar power requires roughly <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56290.pdf">8 acres per megawatt</a>, this expansion would require approximately 10.2 million to 11.5 million acres. That’s an area <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fsm8_037652.htm">roughly as big as Massachusetts and New Jersey combined</a>, although it’s less than 0.5% of total U.S. land mass. </p>
<p>I think goals like these are worth setting, but are good to reevaluate over time to make sure they represent the most prudent path.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1435651189245415428"}"></div></p>
<h2>What are the biggest obstacles?</h2>
<p>In my view, the biggest challenge is that driving change on this scale requires sustained political will. Other issues could also slow progress, including <a href="https://www.pv-tech.org/solar-industry-nears-crisis-amidst-material-shortages/">shortages of critical solar panel materials like polysilicon</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solar-company-files-request-extend-trump-era-solar-tariffs-2021-08-02/">trade disputes</a> and <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/can-rooftop-solar-thrive-in-an-economic-downturn">economic recessions</a>. But the engineering challenges are understood and rather straightforward. </p>
<p>Natural gas, coal and oil provided almost <a href="https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/charts/Energy/Energy_2020_United-States.png">80% of primary energy input</a> to the U.S. economy in 2020, including electric power generation. Replacing much of it with low-carbon sources would also require retooling most major U.S. energy companies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420313/original/file-20210909-13-1hxcglw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram showing U.S. energy consumption by fuel type and sector." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420313/original/file-20210909-13-1hxcglw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420313/original/file-20210909-13-1hxcglw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420313/original/file-20210909-13-1hxcglw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420313/original/file-20210909-13-1hxcglw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420313/original/file-20210909-13-1hxcglw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420313/original/file-20210909-13-1hxcglw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420313/original/file-20210909-13-1hxcglw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shifting to a low-carbon economy would require generating much more energy from low- and zero-carbon sources and electrifying many activities now powered by fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/charts/Energy/Energy_2020_United-States.png">LLNL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Such a shift is likely to meet resistance, although some energy companies are starting to <a href="https://www.powermag.com/oil-and-gas-majors-focus-on-renewable-energy-hydrogen-and-carbon-capture/">expand that way</a>. The Biden administration plans to use the <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/08/23/1032393/the-3-5-trillion-budget-bill-could-transform-the-us-power-sector-and-slash-climate-pollution/">Clean Electricity Payment Program</a>, a provision in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/24/us/politics/house-budget-social-safety-net.html">$3.5 trillion budget plan</a> pending in Congress, to create incentives for electric utilities to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/08/business/energy-environment/biden-solar-energy-climate-change.html">generate more power from carbon-free sources</a>. </p>
<p>Studies like this solar report also assume that a lot of supporting infrastructure that’s essential to fulfill their scenarios will be available. According to the Solar Futures Study, the U.S. would have to expand its electric transmission capacity by 60%-90% to support the levels of solar deployment that it envisions. </p>
<p>Building long-distance transmission lines is very hard in the U.S., especially when they cross state lines, which is <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/12/15/big-affordable-effort-needed-america-reach-net-zero-emissions-2050-princeton-study">what a massive solar deployment would require</a>. Unless some agency, such as the <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/">Federal Energy Regulatory Commission</a>, is empowered to approve new transmission lines, this kind of expansion might be almost impossible.</p>
<p>One potential solution is gaining traction: building transmission lines along existing rights of way next to <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/531793-a-transportation-infrastructure-and-climate-priority">highways and railroad lines</a>, which avoids the need to secure agreement from numerous private landowners.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420318/original/file-20210909-13-4ldxtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three glowing solar towers in the desert." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420318/original/file-20210909-13-4ldxtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420318/original/file-20210909-13-4ldxtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420318/original/file-20210909-13-4ldxtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420318/original/file-20210909-13-4ldxtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420318/original/file-20210909-13-4ldxtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420318/original/file-20210909-13-4ldxtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420318/original/file-20210909-13-4ldxtv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Ivanpah solar thermal plant in California’s Mojave Desert uses mirrors to concentrate the sun’s energy onto three solar collectors, which heat water to run steam turbines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-ivanpah-solar-power-facility-a-concentrated-solar-news-photo/1296519809">Jon G. Fuller, VWPics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How would the current system have to change to support so much solar power?</h2>
<p>Our power system currently gets about 59% of its electricity from <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php">coal and natural gas</a>. These resources are generally, <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/blogs/electric-power/041521-texas-electricity-market-february-freeze-power-outages">although not always</a>, available on demand. This means that when utility customers demand more power for their lights or air conditioners, the companies can call on these types of plants to increase their output. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Moving to a grid dominated by renewables will require utilities and energy regulators to rethink the old way of matching supply and demand. I think the grid of the future will need much higher levels of transmission, energy storage and programs that encourage customers to shift the times when they use power to periods when it’s most abundant and affordable. It also will require much greater coordination between North America’s regional power grids, which aren’t well configured now for <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-needs-a-macrogrid-to-move-electricity-from-areas-that-make-it-to-areas-that-need-it-155938">moving electricity seamlessly over long distances</a>.</p>
<p>All of this is feasible and will be necessary if the U.S. opts to rely on a solar-heavy, decarbonized electricity grid to cost-effectively meet future demand.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167605/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua D. Rhodes is a consultant at IdeaSmiths LLC which does energy systems analysis and studies for utilities and environmental groups. At UT-Austin, he has received multiple grants from non-profits, for-profit companies and local, state, and federal governments. He sits on the board of the non-profit Texas Solar Energy Society. He is friends and acquaintances with multiple contributors to the report discussed in this article.</span></em></p>A decade ago, solar power was a tiny sliver of the US energy supply. Today it’s expanding rapidly – and the Biden administration wants to make it much, much bigger.Joshua D. Rhodes, Research Associate, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1398332020-08-17T12:23:50Z2020-08-17T12:23:50ZA rush is on to mine the deep seabed, with effects on ocean life that aren’t well understood<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350675/original/file-20200731-23-xc0axb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C14%2C1908%2C1054&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Manganese nodules on the Atlantic Ocean floor off the southeastern United States, discovered in 2019 during the Deep Sea Ventures pilot test. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/okeanos/explorations/ex1907/logs/nov7/nov7.html">National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mining the ocean floor for submerged minerals is a little-known, experimental industry. But soon it will take place on the deep seabed, which <a href="https://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part11-2.htm">belongs to everyone</a>, according to international law. </p>
<p>Seabed mining for valuable materials like copper, zinc and lithium already takes place <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pcmsc/science/global-ocean-mineral-resources?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects">within countries’ marine territories</a>. <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/seabed-mining-foes-press-u-n-to-weigh-climate-impacts/">As soon as 2025</a>, larger projects could start in international waters – areas more than 200 nautical miles from shore, beyond national jurisdictions. </p>
<p>We study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=wB-EYosAAAAJ">ocean policy</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=cURq4KsAAAAJ&hl=en">marine resource management</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=y_yqq1oAAAAJ&hl=en">international ocean governance</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iZkMOjYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">environmental regimes</a>, and are researching <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.103957">political processes that govern deep seabed mining</a>. Our main interests are the environmental impacts of seabed mining, ways of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.110809">sharing marine resources equitably</a> and the use of tools like <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/OBO/9780199363445-0123">marine protected areas</a> to protect rare, vulnerable and fragile species and ecosystems. </p>
<p>Today countries are working together on rules for seabed mining. In our opinion, there is still time to develop a framework that will enable nations to share resources and prevent permanent damage to the deep sea. But that will happen only if countries are willing to cooperate and make sacrifices for the greater good.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Lwq1j3nOODA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">To mine the seafloor, ships will lower collector vehicles into the depths to vacuum up nodules containing valuable minerals.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An old treaty with a new purpose</h2>
<p>Countries regulate seabed mining within their marine territories. Farther out, in areas beyond national jurisdiction, they cooperate through the <a href="https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.htm">Law of the Sea Convention</a>, which has been ratified by 167 countries and the European Union, but not the U.S.</p>
<p>The treaty created the <a href="https://www.isa.org.jm/">International Seabed Authority</a>, headquartered in Jamaica, to manage seabed mining in international waters. This organization’s workload is about to balloon.</p>
<p>Under the treaty, activities conducted in areas beyond national jurisdiction must be for “<a href="https://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part11-2.htm">the benefit of mankind as a whole</a>.” These benefits could include economic profit, scientific research findings, specialized technology and recovery of historical objects. The convention calls on governments to share them fairly, with special attention to developing countries’ interests and needs. </p>
<p>The United States was involved in negotiating the convention and signed it but <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/lawofthesea/chapter-eleven/">has not ratified it</a>, due to concerns that it puts too many limits on exploitation of deep sea resources. As a result, the U.S. is not bound by the treaty, although it follows most of its rules independently. Recent administrations, including those of Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, sought to ratify the treaty, but <a href="https://www.voanews.com/usa/why-hasnt-us-signed-law-sea-treaty">failed to muster a two-thirds majority</a> in the Senate to support it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352816/original/file-20200813-20-1bbfg26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of world oceans showing where major metal deposits lie." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352816/original/file-20200813-20-1bbfg26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352816/original/file-20200813-20-1bbfg26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352816/original/file-20200813-20-1bbfg26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352816/original/file-20200813-20-1bbfg26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=324&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352816/original/file-20200813-20-1bbfg26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352816/original/file-20200813-20-1bbfg26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352816/original/file-20200813-20-1bbfg26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Locations of three main types of marine mineral deposits: polymetallic nodules (blue); polymetallic or seafloor massive sulfides (orange); and cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts (yellow).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/312755/fmars-04-00418-HTML-r2/image_m/fmars-04-00418-g001.jpg">Miller et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00418</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Powering digital devices</h2>
<p>Scientists and industry leaders have known that there are valuable minerals on the seafloor for over a century, but it hasn’t been technologically or economically feasible to go after them until the past decade. Widespread growth of battery-driven technologies such as smartphones, computers, wind turbines and solar panels is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-these-six-metals-are-key-to-a-low-carbon-future">changing this calculation</a> as the world runs low on land-based deposits of copper, nickel, aluminum, manganese, zinc, lithium and cobalt.</p>
<p>These minerals are found in potato-shaped “nodules” on the seafloor, as well as in and around <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/vents.html">hydrothermal vents</a>, seamounts and midocean ridges. Energy companies and their governments are also interested in extracting <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/the-world-eyes-yet-another-unconventional-source-of-fossil-fuels-methane-hydrates%3Cu">methane hydrates</a> – frozen deposits of natural gas on the seafloor.</p>
<p>Scientists still have a lot to learn about these habitats and the species that live there. Research expeditions are continually <a href="https://newatlas.com/science/expedition-30-new-species-longest-known-animal/">discovering new species in deep-sea habitats</a>. </p>
<h2>Korea and China seek the most contracts</h2>
<p>Mining the deep ocean requires permission from the International Seabed Authority. Exploration contracts provide the right to explore a specific part of the seabed for 15 years. As of mid-2020, <a href="https://www.isa.org.jm/deep-seabed-minerals-contractors">30 mining groups have signed exploration contracts</a>, including governments, public-private partnerships, international consortiums and private multinational companies.</p>
<p>Two entities hold the most exploration contracts (three each): the government of Korea and the <a href="http://www.comra.org/en/index.htm">China Ocean Mineral Resources R&D Association</a>, a state-owned company. Since the U.S. is not a member of the Law of the Sea treaty, it cannot apply for contracts. But U.S. companies are investing in others’ projects. For example, the American defense company Lockheed Martin owns <a href="https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-gb/products/uk-seabed-resources.html">UK Seabed Resources</a>, which holds two exploration contracts. </p>
<p>Once an exploration contract expires, as several have since 2015, mining companies must broker an exploitation contract with the International Seabed Authority to allow for commercial-scale extraction. The agency is working on <a href="https://www.isa.org.jm/mining-code">rules for mining</a>, which will shape individual contracts. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1259892031935123462"}"></div></p>
<h2>Unknown ecological impacts</h2>
<p>Deep-sea mining technology is still in development but will probably include vacuuming nodules from the seafloor. Scraping and vacuuming the seafloor can destroy habitats and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2019.02.014">release plumes of sediment</a> that blanket or choke filter-feeding species on the seafloor and fish swimming in the water column. </p>
<p>Mining also introduces <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00418">noise, vibration and light pollution</a> in a zone that normally is silent, still and dark. And depending on the type of mining taking place, it could lead to chemical leaks and spills.</p>
<p>Many deep-sea species are <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-2851-2010">unique and found nowhere else</a>. We agree with the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz5922">scientific community</a> and <a href="http://www.deepseaminingoutofourdepth.org/">environmental advocates</a> that it is critically important to analyze the potential effects of seabed mining thoroughly. Studies also should inform decision-makers about how to manage the process. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>This is a key moment for the International Seabed Authority. It is currently writing the rules for environmental protection but doesn’t have enough information about the deep ocean and the impacts of mining. Today the agency relies on seabed mining companies to report on and monitor themselves, and on academic researchers to provide baseline ecosystem data. </p>
<p>We believe that national governments acting through the International Seabed Authority should <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.103823">require more scientific research and monitoring</a>, and better support the agency’s efforts to analyze and act on that information. Such action would make it possible to slow the process down and make better decisions about when, where and how to mine the deep seabed.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jnJE37twrzk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Footage from an expedition to the Ningaloo Canyons off Western Australia in spring 2020 that discovered up to 30 new species.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Balancing risks and benefits</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/03/19/race-to-the-bottom">race for deep-sea minerals is imminent</a>. There are compelling arguments for mining the seabed, such as <a href="https://www.mining-technology.com/features/deepsea-mining-the-environmental-debate/">supporting the transition to renewable energy</a>, which some companies assert will be a <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/deep-sea-mining-an-environmental-solution-or-impending-catastrophe/">net gain for the environment</a>. But balancing benefits and impacts will require proactive and thorough study before the industry takes off.</p>
<p>We also believe that the U.S. should ratify the Law of the Sea treaty so that it can help to lead on this issue. The oceans <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/why-care-about-ocean.html">provide humans with food and oxygen and regulate Earth’s climate</a>. Choices being made now could affect them far into the future in ways that aren’t yet understood. </p>
<p><em>Dr. Rachel Tiller, Senior Research Scientist with SINTEF Ocean, Norway, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139833/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Companies are eager to mine the deep ocean for valuable mineral deposits. But scientists are concerned about impacts on sea life, including creatures that haven’t even been discovered yet.Elizabeth M. De Santo, Associate Professor of Environmental Studies, Franklin & Marshall CollegeElizabeth Mendenhall, Assistant Professor of Marine Affairs and Political Science, University of Rhode IslandElizabeth Nyman, Assistant Professor of Maritime Policy, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/851762017-10-04T19:13:30Z2017-10-04T19:13:30ZThe oil and gas sector needs to diversify if it wants to prosper<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188725/original/file-20171004-6753-1sycgxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Business as usual is not an option.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One does not have to look far to see signs that the oil and gas industry has a bumpy road ahead. Demand might stay high for decades, but given the dizzying pace of technological change, who would bet on that?</p>
<p>Take the recent pledges by India, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40518293">France</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/25/britain-to-ban-sale-of-all-diesel-and-petrol-cars-and-vans-from-2040">Britain</a>, and China to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles. Or the plummeting costs of grid-scale solar power, rapidly becoming <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Low-Emissions-Technology-Roadmap">cheaper than fossil-fuelled electricity</a>.</p>
<p>These developments should cause oil and gas companies to think very carefully about their next move. Big investments in natural gas globally, made on the assumption that gas is a bridge to a clean energy future, may fall flat because renewables are developing so swiftly.</p>
<p>The fact of the matter is that oil and gas companies need to start planning for a low-carbon future and embrace the opportunities it presents. One approach is to diversify their products and embrace renewable energy, one of four strategies that CSIRO has identified in its industry-led <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/Futures/Reports/Oil-and-Gas">Oil and Gas Roadmap</a> that outlines some of the future directions the industry might take. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/big-oils-offshore-scramble-is-risky-business-all-round-42479">Big oil's offshore scramble is risky business all round</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>With 40% of companies involved in the exploration and production of petroleum <a href="https://www.dnvgl.com/oilgas/industry-outlook-report/short-term-agility-long-term-resilience.html">likely to move away from oil and gas in 2017</a>, solar photovoltaics and energy storage offer alternative avenues in which oil and gas companies can invest.</p>
<p>Renewables can be integrated into operations to reduce both the cost and the carbon intensity of operations. In the longer term, these technologies could help energy companies to develop more sophisticated offerings. For instance, hybrid solar and gas <a href="https://arena.gov.au/news/moveable-solar-power-shifts-closer-to-commercial-reality/">microgrids</a> could be sold to developing nations, allowing them to <a href="https://theconversation.com/developing-countries-can-prosper-without-increasing-emissions-84044">leapfrog</a> from energy poverty into clean, cheap distributed energy for all, effectively skipping expensive, centralised electricity grid infrastructure.</p>
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<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/236668505" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Oil and Gas roadmap.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Gas-powered ships</h2>
<p>Two more strategic opportunities focus on expanding the potential of the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel: natural gas. </p>
<p>For example, global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) for transport is expected to grow fourfold to 100 million tonnes a year by 2030, a prime target being <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/gas/shipping-to-become-major-new-sector-for-lng-shell-20161101-gsfw74">maritime shipping</a>. Meeting this LNG demand could open up a valuable market for Australia.</p>
<p>Another opportunity lies in the creation of higher-value products. Natural gas can be converted to many refined products that can fetch higher margins in the market, including diesel and other chemicals such as methanol and dimethyl ether.</p>
<p>More investment is needed to make conversion technology economically competitive, but it would be a wise investment, especially in light of Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/running-on-empty-australias-risky-approach-to-oil-supplies-23619">lack of domestic strategic fuel reserves</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/running-on-empty-australias-risky-approach-to-oil-supplies-23619">Running on empty: Australia's risky approach to oil supplies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Hydrogen fuel is another possibility for Australian resource companies. It can be produced from gas, but in the future hydrogen fuel could also be manufactured by solar-powered electrolysis of water. Both would be good options, given Australia’s abundance of gas and sunlight. </p>
<p>Investments will be needed to improve the production and transport economics of hydrogen, including the development of efficient technologies that can <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-11/hydrogen-breakthrough-could-fuel-%20renewable-energy-%20export-boom/8518916">convert hydrogen carriers (like ammonia) to hydrogen at the point of use</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188719/original/file-20171004-6708-zyu9qf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188719/original/file-20171004-6708-zyu9qf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/188719/original/file-20171004-6708-zyu9qf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188719/original/file-20171004-6708-zyu9qf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188719/original/file-20171004-6708-zyu9qf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188719/original/file-20171004-6708-zyu9qf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188719/original/file-20171004-6708-zyu9qf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/188719/original/file-20171004-6708-zyu9qf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smarter fuel options.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our roadmap also suggests other ways for companies to get involved in the energy transition, by becoming more efficient, less wasteful, and more productive.</p>
<p>Advanced environmental solutions point to ways to improve water quality and reuse, reduce or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions (including sequestering carbon dioxide, controlling fugitive emissions, and finding alternatives to flaring), and finding the best ways to decommission assets like wells and offshore platforms after their useful life is over.</p>
<p>The industry needs to be much more efficient in exploring and producing oil and gas so that the life of existing assets can be lengthened, often using less environmentally damaging approaches such as waterless fracturing and <a href="http://research.csiro.au/oilandgas/wp-content/uploads/sites/49/2015/10/Enhanced-oil-recovery-2015.pdf">reservoir rejuvenation using microbes</a>. Robots and artificial intelligence could also help to improve efficiency and safety.</p>
<p>The oil and gas sector has an important role to play in the future of the energy sector, but that role is changing. Companies need to be proactive to remain relevant. If they pursue some of the opportunities outlined here, they will help ensure they stay viable into the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85176/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jerad A. Ford has previously received research funding and scholarships from the UQ Centre for Coal Seam Gas while a student and post-doc researcher at the University of Queensland Business School. </span></em></p>A new CSIRO roadmap outlines the options for oil and gas companies to keep pace with the clean energy transition, including solar-powered hydrogen fuel production.Jerad A. Ford, Manager - Strategic Advisory, CSIRO Futures, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/305572014-08-25T05:19:44Z2014-08-25T05:19:44ZMulti-discipline courses will help solve emerging global problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57167/original/v65cpscy-1408700414.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Studying one subject won't help save the world. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-210697081/stock-photo-world-map-on-green-leaves.html?src=dt_last_search-6">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Across the globe, we are experiencing rapid changes to our environment and social structures. Climate change, population growth, and social unrest are causing ever increasing problems. The rate of change poses serious challenges for education and how we prepare graduates for an unpredictable future.</p>
<p>Courses addressing environmental change and social adaptability are slowly appearing in university prospectuses around the world. For the most part, these topics come in the form of new post-graduate courses. </p>
<p>For example, Harvard University has a graduate program in <a href="http://www.extension.harvard.edu/degrees-programs/sustainability-environmental-management">sustainability and environmental management</a>. The prospectus states students will be “primed to create solutions to the crises affecting our global community”. Many other universities also now run similar masters-level courses on environmental sustainability.</p>
<h2>Combining different subjects</h2>
<p>But sustainability as a subject can only be taught by drawing from several academic disciples. The answers to the big global questions cannot be found within single traditional disciplines such as biology or politics on their own. </p>
<p>The new courses tend to combine elements of environmental science, economics and politics. They often include modules covering new topics such as global environmental politics or the sustainability of food production. Enabling students to learn from multiple disciplines is a crucial step towards helping them address the big problems facing society. This is particularly important since we cannot predict what the future problems might be.</p>
<p>Undergraduate courses have lagged behind, but there are some truly interdisciplinary degree courses beginning to appear. Several universities now provide a diverse education via new BASc degrees in arts and sciences. The most successful examples are from <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/basc">University College London</a> in the UK and <a href="http://artsci.os.mcmaster.ca/about-the-program">McMaster University</a> in Canada. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57082/original/rtgbz8b4-1408631489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57082/original/rtgbz8b4-1408631489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57082/original/rtgbz8b4-1408631489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57082/original/rtgbz8b4-1408631489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57082/original/rtgbz8b4-1408631489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57082/original/rtgbz8b4-1408631489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57082/original/rtgbz8b4-1408631489.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Helping to solve tomorrow’s problems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-211373263/stock-photo-businessman-hand-shows-light-bulb-with-planet-earth-as-concept.html?src=i2AcOVxB4bsObelzE58F5w-2-5">Lightbulb image via Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The BASc degrees typically include new modules on multi-disciplinary working and communicating knowledge. These enable students to then pick and mix from pre-existing modules across many different departments. Additional features of these degrees include interdisciplinary research projects and substantial work placements, which are likely to improve employability.</p>
<h2>Flexibility and online learning</h2>
<p>Broad interdisciplinary degrees are unfortunately not yet widely available. However, more international universities are now offering flexible combined honours degrees. This approach is similar to the US major/minor model of higher education. </p>
<p>Many university students also now routinely use <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/oct/22/study-mooc-top-universities">Massive Open Online Courses</a> to extend their learning beyond their degrees. Supplementing learning with online courses provides broader training than is available through standard degrees. </p>
<p>Such approaches are well placed to provide the diversity of knowledge students need to address the global environmental and social problems that don’t stay within the realms of a single subject. But diversifying education is only part of the change needed. The methods we use to teach and assess students also play critical roles in making them adaptable. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.heacademy.ac.uk/resources/detail/subjects/medev/Problem-based_learning-_a_practical_guide_%2815%29">Problem-based learning</a> is already at the heart of many <a href="http://www.bmj.com/content/326/7384/328">medical</a> and <a href="http://www.ukcle.ac.uk/resources/teaching-and-learning-practices/pbl/">law</a> degrees. It provides the opportunity to practice broad thinking under real-world situations. Problem based learning also encourages self-directed and explorative learning. This approach could be used more broadly to encourage the ability to adapt that students need in the current climate. </p>
<p>For example, students could be faced with a local farmer who is experiencing crop failures, or a small business which is struggling due to the increasing cost of raw materials. The students then research the underlying problems and potential solutions. Both scenarios are broadly related to climate change, but the first might require pulling together subjects such as ecology, soil science, engineering, and economics. The second scenario might require research on climate forecasting, ecosystem services, and business. </p>
<p>Some universities now offer cross-disciplinary problem-based <a href="http://www.exeter.ac.uk/grandchallenges/">learning events</a> focused around global challenges such as food security or even educational reform itself. Assessment can be directly built into these new forms of teaching, reducing the reliance on traditional exams, which have been widely <a href="http://edukologija.vdu.lt/en/system/files/ConstrutivismAligment_Biggs_96.pdf">criticised</a> for being a poor test of understanding. </p>
<h2>Skills for unpredictable situations</h2>
<p>Rolling out modern teaching and learning approaches more broadly could help students to integrate the many disciplines needed to address global change, and to apply their knowledge to unpredictable situations.</p>
<p>Our education system was designed for a bygone time, and is not equipping students with the skills to thrive in our changing world. It is clear that <a href="http://www.socialtalent.co/blog/graduate-hiring">employers</a> increasingly need staff who are capable of working in unstructured situations. Broader society also needs the same flexibility in this time of great change. Reluctance to change is common, but universities will need to embrace new approaches educate tomorrow’s society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/30557/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amber Griffiths is scientific adviser for cultural laboratory, FoAM Kernow. She currently receives funding from the EU, the Royal Society, the Natural Environment Research Council, and the Fishmongers' Company. Her ORCID ID is 0000-0002-7455-6795.</span></em></p>Across the globe, we are experiencing rapid changes to our environment and social structures. Climate change, population growth, and social unrest are causing ever increasing problems. The rate of change…Amber Griffiths, Lecturer in Natural Environment, University of ExeterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/79402012-07-04T20:39:10Z2012-07-04T20:39:10ZThe case for shutting down Hazelwood power station - some facts and figures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/12566/original/hbpmhy9z-1341296723.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C26%2C1943%2C1197&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With Australia's highest carbon intensity, Victoria's Hazelwood coal-fired power station is a prime candidate to close down part of its generating capacity.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Under its <a href="http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/clean-energy-future/">Clean Energy Future</a>, the Federal government will negotiate to close 2000 MW of the dirtiest fossil fuel power generating capacity in Australia by 2020. </p>
<p>With the price on carbon now in operation, there will be pressure on some highly carbon intensive station to remain viable – this policy pre-empts the failure of the most vulnerable businesses and provides some certainty as to which stations will close, as well as compensating the companies affected, including the workers who will lose their jobs.</p>
<p>As reported in April in the <a href="http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/closing-time-australias-dirtiest-power">Climate Spectator</a> the plants under consideration are Hazelwood, Yallourn and Energy Brix in Victoria, Playford B in South Australia and Collinsville in Queensland.</p>
<p>The most likely combination of these stations is Hazelwood and the much smaller Energy Brix which both rely on the same open cut coal mine in the La Trobe Valley. So assuming these are the stations that close, what will be the impact on Victoria and Australia’s carbon emissions and electrical energy system?</p>
<p>Hazelwood power station is a 1600 MW brown coal generator made up of eight 200 MW units which were constructed between 1964 and 1971. It is the oldest coal-fired generator currently operating in Victoria, and not surprisingly has the highest carbon intensity of any power station in Australia at 1.52 tonnes of CO2 for each mega-watt hour* (MWh) of electricity produced (as reported by the <a href="http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Settlements/Carbon-Dioxide-Equivalent-Intensity-Index">Australian Energy Market Operator</a>.</p>
<p>It is just ahead of Playford B in South Australia, but Playford only has a capacity of 240 MW. Loy Yang B produces more carbon (20 mega tonnes versus 18 for Hazelwood), but also produces almost 40% more electricity. Hazelwood is a clearly a prime candidate for the Clean Energy Future program to purchase and shut down 2 GW of the most carbon intensive generating capacity.</p>
<p>In 2011, homes, business and industry connected to the National Energy Market (the NEM, made up of Tas, SA, Vic, NSW and Qld) consumed 200 TWh of electricity. The power stations combined produced 186 Mt CO2. Hazelwood supplied 6% of the NEM’s power and 10% of the emissions.</p>
<figure><table><thead><tr><th>Station</th><th>Capacity (MW)</th><th>Power (TWh /year)</th><th>Carbon Intensity (tCO2 /MWh)</th><th>Carbon (Mt CO2)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Loy Yang A</td><td>2210</td><td>16.7</td><td>1.21</td><td>20.2</td></tr><tr><td>Hazelwood</td><td>1600</td><td>12.1</td><td>1.53</td><td>18.4</td></tr><tr><td>Bayswater</td><td>2640</td><td>17.2</td><td>0.99</td><td>17.6</td></tr><tr><td>Yallourn</td><td>1480</td><td>11.7</td><td>1.42</td><td>16.6</td></tr><tr><td>Eraring</td><td>2680</td><td>13.6</td><td>0.99</td><td>13.7</td></tr><tr><td>Loy Yang B</td><td>1000</td><td>8.6</td><td>1.24</td><td>10.6</td></tr><tr><td>Mt Piper</td><td>1400</td><td>10.3</td><td>0.94</td><td>9.5</td></tr><tr><td>Liddell</td><td>2000</td><td>8.3</td><td>1.08</td><td>9.0</td></tr><tr><td>Wallerawang</td><td>1000</td><td>6.4</td><td>1.05</td><td>6.7</td></tr><tr><td>Gladstone</td><td>1680</td><td>6.8</td><td>0.96</td><td>6.6</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption>Australia’s 10 biggest carbon emitters.<span class="source">AEMO ([http://www.aemo.com.au/](http://www.aemo.com.au/ “”))</span></figcaption></figure>
<p>So what happens if 6% of the generation is removed? Will we have rolling blackouts? Who will take up the slack?</p>
<p>A few years ago when demand was continuing to increase, this might have been a serious question. But, since 2008 <a href="http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/spotlight-australias-great-electricity-story">total demand in Australia has been decreasing</a> at between 1% and 2% per year, a decrease of almost a gigawatt. </p>
<p>The effect has been that generators are operating at lower capacity factors - with wholesale electricity prices not seen in a decade - and claims that no new fossil generating capacity will be required in Australia for a decade. That means no new state-of-the-art generators that would have much lower emissions than Hazelwood.</p>
<p>Hazelwood runs at an average of around 85% capacity, or 1.4 GW. So the 1 GW decrease in demand is close to the total contribution of Hazelwood. Turning it off would more or less take us back to the supply and demand balance of 2008. </p>
<p>This would have the effect of increasing wholesale electricity prices by around 2 c/kWh – returning prices to the levels seen before 2008, and restoring some investor confidence to build new and cleaner capacity.</p>
<p>Even without new capacity, the effect of shutting down Hazelwood and the slack being taken up by existing generators that have on average 30% lower emissions, would reduce CO2 emissions by 5 Mt per year, or 3% of Australia’s electricity sector emissions.</p>
<p>In the national energy market, there is around 50 GW of capacity listed. On average we use 22 GW – so there is plenty of capacity sitting idle much of the time, waiting for the extreme demand days when the temperature reaches into the 40s. </p>
<p>With 2 GW removed from the system, there is a concern that the system may struggle to meet peak demand. But those hot days tend to be sunny, when rooftop photovoltaic (PV) will be producing at its maximum. In the last two years almost 2 GW of solar PV capacity has been installed nationally. Just as long as we use our air-conditioners when the sun is shining.</p>
<p><em>*A mega-watt hour is the amount of electricity generating by a 1 mega-watt generator operating for one hour.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/7940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Dargaville receives funding from the Federal Government Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism</span></em></p>Under its Clean Energy Future, the Federal government will negotiate to close 2000 MW of the dirtiest fossil fuel power generating capacity in Australia by 2020. With the price on carbon now in operation…Roger Dargaville, Research Fellow, Energy Research Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.