tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/clive-palmer-2226/articlesClive Palmer – The Conversation2023-06-22T10:22:46Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2082852023-06-22T10:22:46Z2023-06-22T10:22:46ZGrattan on Friday: Labor’s ‘Godfather’ seeks deal on electoral reform – but some fear changes could disadvantage community candidates<p>Special Minister of State Don Farrell, who’s also minister for trade and tourism and the government’s deputy leader in the Senate, is a numbers man from way back. </p>
<p>A powerbroker of the right, in 2012 Farrell (only a parliamentary secretary at the time) had the numbers to be placed top of the South Australian Senate ticket, relegating the left’s Penny Wong, who was a senior minister, to the second spot for the 2013 election.</p>
<p>Sometimes, however, the numbers don’t prevail. Amid the ensuing controversy, Farrell stepped down to second place. </p>
<p>As a result he lost his seat at the 2013 election. He turned his hand to establishing a vineyard, before being returned at the 2016 election and becoming deputy opposition leader in the Senate. Then he had to cede that position to Kristina Keneally after the 2019 election. </p>
<p>Farrell and Anthony Albanese were long-time factional opponents. But under Albanese’s government, Farrell is prospering. With the thaw in China-Australia relations, it’s a very good time to be trade minister. </p>
<p>Now Farrell is set to wrangle sweeping changes to the donation and spending rules for federal elections. Those changes have the potential to affect parliamentary numbers in future elections. </p>
<p>This week the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) recommended broad reforms: a drastic lowering of the threshold for disclosing donations, and “real time” disclosure; caps on donations and spending, including for “third parties” (such as Climate 200, founded by Simon Holmes à Court) and associated entities (primarily bodies raising money for parties); and increased public funding for elections. The committee also said there should be legislation for truth in advertising. </p>
<p>The recommendations were made in the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/2022federalelection/Interim_Report">committee’s majority report</a>, with the Coalition members dissenting on key issues. JSCEM didn’t spell out fine detail, and its final report won’t come until late in the year. </p>
<p>Farrell is not waiting for JSCEM’s last word. Unsurprisingly, the recommendations from the Labor-dominated committee are in line with Labor’s policy, and Farrell is already off and running. He’ll have negotiations with the players over the next few months, although legislation would wait until after the final report. He says he wants to get consensus if possible – a challenge, given the opposition’s position, but not necessarily out of the question. </p>
<p>A central aim of the proposals is to reduce the power of “big money” to influence elections. </p>
<p>“Big money” donations from business and unions have long been a concern. Clive Palmer elevated this to a new level with his spending in the 2019 and 2022 elections. Palmer spent $83.6 million in the 2019 campaign. In 2022, he spent an extraordinary $117 million (albeit to minimal effect – only one senator from his United Australia Party was elected, and he had little influence on the overall result). </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/sweeping-election-donation-and-spending-reforms-recommended-by-parliamentary-committee-208030">Sweeping election donation and spending reforms recommended by parliamentary committee</a>
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<p>Few would defend the Palmer cash splash as being appropriate in a good electoral system. </p>
<p>But dig deeper and the spending argument becomes a lot more complicated, with the pros and cons of caps nuanced, and decisions requiring fine judgments. </p>
<p>Teals elected in 2022 had expensive campaigns. Allegra Spender (Wentworth) spent more than $2 million, as did Monique Ryan in Kooyong. Without large amounts of money, some of the teal candidates could have struggled to get the name recognition that helped them win. Without Climate 200, a number of candidates would have had substantially less resources.</p>
<p>The teals might be dubbed the high end of the wider “community candidate” movement, which has gained increasing public support and given voters more choice and thus, arguably, more agency in our democracy. </p>
<p>Electoral reform is all about having a “level playing field”. But many factors influence that playing field, including whether the person is already on the field as a sitting member (or has advantaged access, as a candidate backed by an established political party). </p>
<p>Kate Chaney, a teal who holds the Western Australian seat of Curtin, was a member of JSCEM. In her “additional comments” in the report she says, while agreeing with the principle of curbing “big money”, it’s important the system is open to new entrants.</p>
<p>“Caps” need to be “structured to recognise the additional barriers to entry faced by independents or new entrants”, Chaney argues. “Donation caps must not be set too low […] new entrants are dependent on ‘seed capital’ to reach critical mass in campaign viability.” </p>
<p>Chaney is also hesitant about extra public funding, saying it’s “unhelpful” to replace private “big money” with “state dependency/taxpayer funding”. “State dependency is the opposite of community funding and engagement which should be promoted by changes to our system.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-feelings-towards-china-are-thawing-but-suspicion-remains-high-lowy-2023-poll-208103">Australians' feelings towards China are thawing but suspicion remains high: Lowy 2023 poll</a>
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<p>Holmes à Court claims “poorly implemented” caps would actually weaken democracy rather than enhance it. He says the changes that have been made in Victoria and NSW “give the majors a free ride and effectively handicap outside competition”.</p>
<p>While superficially the odds might seem against an agreement between government and opposition, they both stand to gain from pushing towards it (there would be less chance on truth-in-advertising legislation). The two main parties share the serious problem of a falling primary vote, which they want to protect from further erosion. </p>
<p>Certainly, Holmes à Court has fears. “We wholeheartedly support reform if it’s fair, but we should all be suspicious because major parties have a track record of changing election laws to rig the game for their own benefit,” he tells The Conversation.</p>
<p>“Let’s be frank, Labor would like to see the back of Palmer, and the Coalition would like to kill the independents movement.</p>
<p>"While the Libs are saying they oppose Labor’s changes, ultimately they have only two ways to get back into government: change their culture, or change the rules, the latter being much easier.</p>
<p>"The devil is very much in the details. If we’re not careful it’ll be a big step backwards for Australia’s recently reinvigorated democracy.”</p>
<p>One person’s “consensus” can be another’s dirty deal, it seems. Different players have distinct interests. </p>
<p>Before the last election Graham Richardson, himself a former Labor right-wing powerbroker, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/labors-godfather-a-guardian-of-common-sense/news-story/70ae72981abfe30d99f6528a721658c3">wrote</a> of Farrell, “the Godfather brings traditional common sense to Labor’s decision-making processes”. </p>
<p>Principle, pragmatism and common sense will all be needed to find the combination of reforms most attuned to reflecting the country’s democratic will and giving voters maximum agency. <a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-special-minister-of-state-don-farrell-wants-donation-and-spending-caps-for-next-election-208107">Farrell says</a> it’s a matter of finding the right balance, between restricting the ability to “buy” elections and finding ways to improve access to democracy. “My job in the next six months […] will be to try and find that balance.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208285/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Farrell and Albanese were long-time factional opponents. But under Albanese’s government, Farrell is prospering. With the thaw in China-Australia relations, it’s a very good time to be trade minister.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2031112023-04-03T20:10:12Z2023-04-03T20:10:12ZHow Clive Palmer is suing Australia for $300 billion with the help of an obscure legal clause (and Christian Porter)<p>Australian business figure Clive Palmer is suing the Australian government for almost <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-30/clive-palmer-to-sue-australia-for-300b-over-iron-ore-project/102166246">A$300 billion</a> in an international tribunal, having lost a case against the Western Australian government he took <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-did-the-high-court-rule-against-clive-palmer-and-what-does-the-judgment-mean-169633">all the way to the High Court</a>.</p>
<p>The High Court is meant to be the ultimate arbiter of Australian legal disputes. But in 2019 while in conflict with the WA government Palmer moved ownership of his two main Australian firms <a href="https://www.donnarossdisputeresolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Up-in-smoke-will-Clive-Palmers-S-ingapore-company-be-denied-standin-g-in-its-ISDS-arbitration-against-Australia-2021-64-ADR-54.pdf">offshore</a>, ultimately to a company he set up in Singapore, <a href="https://opencorporates.com/companies/au/632245599">Zeph Investments Pte Ltd</a>.</p>
<p>As a Singapore-based company, Zeph believes it is able to take action against the Australian government that Australian-based companies cannot, using an obscure provision of the <a href="https://aanzfta.asean.org/index.php?page=chapter-11-investment/">ASEAN-Australia New Zealand Free Trade Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>What makes him think it would work?</p>
<h2>Palmer lost in the High Court</h2>
<p>First, a quick look at what’s at stake. </p>
<p>In 2002, Palmer’s two companies entered into an agreement with the WA government to explore, mine and process iron ore in the Pilbara region, known as the <a href="https://mineralogy.com.au/projects/balmoral-south/">Balmoral South Iron Ore Project</a>.</p>
<p>The two sides fell out, and in 2020 Palmer sued the state for <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-are-the-disputes-involving-clive-palmer-and-the-wa-government-about-20200819-p55ndk.html">$27.8 billion</a>. In 2022 the WA government hurriedly passed <a href="https://www.legislation.wa.gov.au/legislation/prod/filestore.nsf/FileURL/mrdoc_43095.pdf/$FILE/Iron%20Ore%20Processing%20(Mineralogy%20Pty%20Ltd)%20Agreement%20Amendment%20Act%202020%20-%20%5B00-00-00%5D.pdf?OpenElement">legislation</a> that indemnified the state against any money it might be found to owe Palmer, meaning he would get nothing.</p>
<p>Palmer appealed to the High Court, and <a href="https://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/downloadPdf/2021/HCA/31">lost</a> in a unanimous judgement.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/clive-palmer-versus-western-australia-he-could-survive-a-high-court-loss-if-his-company-is-found-to-be-foreign-145334">Clive Palmer versus (Western) Australia. He could survive a High Court loss if his company is found to be “foreign”</a>
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<p>In his new guise as director of a Singapore-based company, Palmer has upped the ante to <a href="https://globalarbitrationreview.com/article/mining-magnate-launches-us200-billion-treaty-claim-against-australia">US$200 billion</a> (about A$300 billion) – an amount WA Premier Mark McGowan says is “A$11,500 for every person in Australia”. The demand includes US$10 billion for “moral damages”.</p>
<p>By way of comparison, A$300 billion is in the ballpark of the A$268 billion to $368 billion Australia is set to pay for nuclear submarines over three decades. </p>
<p>Palmer has hired former Australian Attorney-General <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/30/clive-palmer-christian-porter-300bn-lawsuit-against-australian-government">Christian Porter</a> as part of his legal team. The clause Porter and the rest of the team will attempt to use is known as the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (<a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/investment/investor-state-dispute-settlement">ISDS</a>) clause. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518950/original/file-20230403-24-jik04h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518950/original/file-20230403-24-jik04h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518950/original/file-20230403-24-jik04h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518950/original/file-20230403-24-jik04h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518950/original/file-20230403-24-jik04h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518950/original/file-20230403-24-jik04h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518950/original/file-20230403-24-jik04h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Christian Porter, part of Clive Palmer’s legal team.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Investor-State Dispute Settlement clauses allow foreign (but not local) investors to claim damages from governments if they can argue that a change in law or a government decision has reduced their future profits.</p>
<h2>Trying again, as a Singaporean</h2>
<p>ISDS clauses were originally designed in the <a href="https://www.cato.org/commentary/isds-controversy-how-we-got-here-where-next">postcolonial period</a> to compensate foreign investors from countries which claimed to have the rule of law against having their assets appropriated by developing countries countries which were viewed as having less developed legal systems.</p>
<p>But its use has expanded to include concepts such as “indirect expropriation,” “minimum standard of treatment” and “<a href="https://www.iisd.org/toolkits/sustainability-toolkit-for-trade-negotiators/5-investment-provisions/5-4-safeguarding-policy-space/5-4-5-fair-and-equitable-treatment-fet-or-minimum-standard-of-treatment-mst/">legitimate expectations</a>” which enable foreign investors to sue on the grounds that government action reduced the value of their investments or did not meet their expectations at the time they invested.</p>
<p>US tobacco company <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-even-winning-is-losing-the-surprising-cost-of-defeating-philip-morris-over-plain-packaging-114279">Philip Morris</a> tried a similar ploy when it sued the Australian government over Australia’s plain packaging law. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-even-winning-is-losing-the-surprising-cost-of-defeating-philip-morris-over-plain-packaging-114279">When even winning is losing. The surprising cost of defeating Philip Morris over plain packaging</a>
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<p>Although Philip Morris couldn’t sue using the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement (which lacks an ISDS provision), it moved ownership of its Australian arm to Hong Kong and sued using a Hong Kong treaty, ultimately <a href="https://nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/ded9c356/philip-morris-asia-v-australia">failing</a>. However, Australia was left with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-even-winning-is-losing-the-surprising-cost-of-defeating-philip-morris-over-plain-packaging-114279">A$24 million</a> legal bill, only half of which it recovered.</p>
<h2>The tool used by big tobacco</h2>
<p>Overseas, ISDS clauses have been used to enable corporations to take action against measures to reduce carbon emissions, as well as against public health measures. Denmark and New Zealand appear to have designed their fossil fuel phaseout plans specifically to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-treaties-protecting-fossil-fuel-investors-could-jeopardize-global-efforts-to-save-the-climate-and-cost-countries-billions-182135">minimise their exposure to ISDS clauses</a>. </p>
<p>Unlike normal legal proceedings, ISDS adjudications lack safeguards including an independent judiciary (ISDS arbitrators can continue to act for clients in other ISDS cases) or the need to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/isds-the-devil-in-the-trade-deal/6634538">consider precedents or allow appeals</a>. This means decisions lack consistency and the outcome of Palmer’s case is unpredictable.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/corporations-prepare-to-sue-as-pandemic-reveals-trade-flaws-136604">Corporations prepare to sue as pandemic reveals trade flaws</a>
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<p>Mounting criticism of the clauses led to their exclusion from recent Australian trade agreements, including those with the <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/not-yet-in-force/aukfta/official-text">United Kingdom</a>, the <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/negotiations/aeufta/australia-european-union-fta-fact-sheet">European Union</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/suddenly-the-worlds-biggest-trade-agreement-wont-allow-corporations-to-sue-governments-123582">nations bordering the Pacific</a>.</p>
<p>Labor recently reaffirmed its<a href="https://www.trademinister.gov.au/minister/don-farrell/speech/trading-our-way-greater-prosperity-and-security"> policy</a> to exclude ISDS clauses from all new trade agreements and to review their inclusion in existing agreements. </p>
<p>Palmer’s case, and the millions of dollars and years of effort it could cost Australia even if he ultimately fails, makes removing these clauses more urgent.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203111/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Patricia Ranald is an honorary research associate at the University of Sydney and the honorary convener of the Australian Fair Trade and Investment Network, a network of community organisations which advocates for fair trade based on human rights, labour rights and environmental sustainability.</span></em></p>Palmer sued Western Australia’s government in the High Court and lost. But an obscure clause in a little-known trade agreement is giving him a second chancePatricia Ranald, Honorary research associate, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1995122023-02-09T01:26:50Z2023-02-09T01:26:50ZTanya Plibersek killed off Clive Palmer’s coal mine. It’s an Australian first – but it may never happen again<p>Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek has <a href="https://epbcpublicportal.awe.gov.au/all-notices/project-decision-no-comment/?id=f81a6532-08b2-eb11-80c4-00505684c137">formally rejected</a> mining magnate Clive Palmer’s proposed Central Queensland Coal Project. Her decision was based on the risk of damage to the Great Barrier Reef, freshwater creeks and groundwater.</p>
<p>The 20-year open-cut mine project would have extracted up to 10 million tonnes of metallurgical coal – used to make steel – each year.</p>
<p>Plibersek’s decision is significant. It’s the first time a coal mine has been refused in the two decades our federal environment law has been in place. But those hoping the decision sets a precedent for other mine proposals are likely to be disappointed.</p>
<p>Palmer’s mine was not refused on climate change grounds. Objectors to coal mines will still need to persuade the federal government of the link between future coal mine developments and global warming.</p>
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmers coal mine has been rejected.</span>
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<h2>A rare decision indeed</h2>
<p>Australia’s federal environment law is known as the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (<a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021C00182">EPBC</a>) Act. It came into force in 2000 to provide federal oversight of large projects. </p>
<p>Under the law, proponents must refer a proposal to federal environment authorities if it’s likely to significantly impact so-called “matters of national environmental significance”. These matters include the Great Barrier Reef.</p>
<p>But it’s extremely rare that any development is refused under the EPBC Act. As of July last year, more than 7,000 projects had been referred to the federal government under the law, for assessment of the proposal’s impacts. <a href="https://www.transparency.gov.au/annual-reports/department-agriculture-water-and-environment/reporting-year/2021-22-38">Just 13</a> were ultimately refused.</p>
<p>So why did Palmer’s proposed mine cross this exceptional hurdle for refusal? Largely because of its location. The proposed site was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-08/tanya-plibersek-blocks-clive-palmer-central-qld-coal-mine/101945208">just ten kilometres</a> from the Great Barrier Reef world heritage area. </p>
<p>Explaining the decision on Wednesday, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-08/tanya-plibersek-blocks-clive-palmer-central-qld-coal-mine/101945208">Plibersek said</a>: </p>
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<p>[…] risks to the Great Barrier Reef, freshwater creeks and groundwater are too great. Freshwater creeks run into the Great Barrier Reef and onto seagrass meadows that feed dugongs and provide breeding grounds for fish.</p>
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<img alt="Coral reef with boards moored" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509066/original/file-20230209-19-kjht87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509066/original/file-20230209-19-kjht87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509066/original/file-20230209-19-kjht87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509066/original/file-20230209-19-kjht87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509066/original/file-20230209-19-kjht87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509066/original/file-20230209-19-kjht87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509066/original/file-20230209-19-kjht87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Plibersek said the mine posed unacceptable risks to the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>The thin end of the wedge?</h2>
<p>Plibersek’s decision has triggered calls for the federal government to reject other fossil fuel projects.</p>
<p>For example, Greens environment spokeswoman Sarah Hanson-Young on Wednesday described Plibersek’s decision as “the thin edge of the wedge”. She went on:</p>
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<p>There [were] 118 new coal and gas projects in the pipeline. One down, 117 to go.</p>
<p>From Narrabri’s double-whammy new coal and gas projects, Woodside’s North West Shelf offshore gas extension, billionaire miner Gina Rinehart’s proposed CSG expansion in the Surat Basin, or the Mount Pleasant coal project extension in the Hunter, the Minister has many projects left to rule out.</p>
<p>Approving more coal and gas in the midst of a climate crisis is reckless and dangerous.</p>
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<p>However, persuading the federal minister to reject these mines will not be easy.
That’s because the law contains no explicit requirement for the minister to consider the climate change impacts of a proposal. </p>
<p>This certainly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/29/greg-hunts-approval-of-adanis-queensland-mine-upheld-by-federal-court">hasn’t stopped</a> litigants from <a href="https://theconversation.com/todays-disappointing-federal-court-decision-undoes-20-years-of-climate-litigation-progress-in-australia-179291">challenging</a> projects on climate grounds. But to date, none have succeeded.</p>
<p>Other legal objections – <a href="https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/full/2017/2017fcafc0134">such as</a> one brought by the Australian Conservation Foundation against the Adani mine – have taken a different tack. They’ve sought to show the carbon emissions resulting from burning coal from a mine would harm a matter of national environmental significance. </p>
<p>The ACF argued the Adani mine was inconsistent with Australia’s international obligations to protect the Great Barrier Reef. But the challenge was unsuccessful. </p>
<p>Such arguments are difficult to run. That’s partly because they string together a number of causal links. In other words, they rest on the assumption that one action is definitively responsible for another, and so on down the chain.</p>
<p>Such links may be possible to show in cases such as the Palmer mine, when a development is close to the coast and its direct operation might pollute waterways. But it’s harder to show that coal from a single mine, burnt by a third party, will damage the Great Barrier Reef. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-case-has-made-legal-history-young-australians-just-won-a-human-rights-case-against-an-enormous-coal-mine-195350">'This case has made legal history’: young Australians just won a human rights case against an enormous coal mine</a>
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<h2>Room for hope</h2>
<p>Plibersek’s decision is unlikely to set a precedent for federal mine approvals.</p>
<p>The EPBC Act could, in theory, be strengthened to give the minister more power to reject a proposal on climate grounds. But unfortunately, the Albanese government’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/nature-positive-plan.pdf">promised reforms</a> of the law fail to do so.</p>
<p>First, the reforms failed to include a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-has-introduced-its-controversial-climate-bill-to-parliament-heres-how-to-give-it-real-teeth-187762">climate trigger</a>” – a mechanism by which development proposals are not approved unless their climate impact has been considered.</p>
<p>Second, the reforms fail to make so-called “scope 3 emissions” a mandatory consideration in environmental approvals. These types of emissions are produced indirectly – such as when a company’s coal is burned for energy.</p>
<p>There is room for hope, however. The federal government’s <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/albanese-government-passes-climate-change-bill-house-representatives">Climate Change Act</a> enshrines in law Australia’s goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Under this policy position, the approval of large coal mines will become increasingly difficult to reconcile.</p>
<p>And in recent years, <a href="https://theconversation.com/landmark-rocky-hill-ruling-could-pave-the-way-for-more-courts-to-choose-climate-over-coal-111533">some state courts</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-case-has-made-legal-history-young-australians-just-won-a-human-rights-case-against-an-enormous-coal-mine-195350">have been convinced</a> by causal arguments linking mines to climate change. So future federal decisions are unlikely to be immune from further challenge. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-has-introduced-its-controversial-climate-bill-to-parliament-heres-how-to-give-it-real-teeth-187762">Labor has introduced its controversial climate bill to parliament. Here's how to give it real teeth</a>
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<h2>What’s next for Clive Palmer?</h2>
<p>Plibersek’s decision comes during a bad few months for Palmer. In November last year, Queensland’s Land Court recommended Palmer’s proposed Waratah coal project in Queensland also be rejected <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-case-has-made-legal-history-young-australians-just-won-a-human-rights-case-against-an-enormous-coal-mine-195350">due to</a> its likely contribution to climate change, and subsequent erosion of human rights.</p>
<p>Palmer can seek a judicial review of the latest decision. But success would rest on whether it could be shown Plibersek’s decision involved a legal error. These types of challenges are notoriously difficult – so there’s a good chance this proposed mine has reached the end of the road. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/todays-disappointing-federal-court-decision-undoes-20-years-of-climate-litigation-progress-in-australia-179291">Today's disappointing federal court decision undoes 20 years of climate litigation progress in Australia</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justine Bell-James receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program.</span></em></p>The mine was not refused on climate change grounds. So without legal reform, other fossil fuel projects may still go ahead.Justine Bell-James, Associate Professor, TC Beirne School of Law, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1987802023-02-01T02:04:29Z2023-02-01T02:04:29ZBig money was spent on the 2022 election – but the party with the deepest pockets didn’t win<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507497/original/file-20230201-13-hyfh82.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nine months after the 2022 federal election, voters finally get a look at how much the parties spent and who funded their campaigns.</p>
<p>Data <a href="https://transparency.aec.gov.au/download">released today</a> reveal Australia’s political parties collectively spent a whopping $418 million in the year leading up to the federal election. </p>
<p>Money matters in Australian elections because it helps spread political messages far and wide. But political parties remain highly dependent on a small number of powerful individuals, businesses, and unions, to fund their campaigns. In the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/whos-in-the-room/">shadowy world</a> of donations and lobbying, this dependence creates enormous risks of private influence over public decision-making.</p>
<h2>The Coalition was the biggest spender, followed by Clive Palmer</h2>
<p>The Coalition outspent Labor in the year leading up to the 2022 federal election, declaring $132 million in expenditure compared to Labor’s $116 million. The Coalition has been the biggest spender at every federal election since 2007.</p>
<p>Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party came in second in 2022 (on $123 million), outspending Labor. Palmer was a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">big presence</a> in the 2019 federal election campaign too, but this is the first time he has edged out a major party in the spending stakes.</p>
<p>The 2022 election is the first federal election since 2010 where the party with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">biggest wallet</a> didn’t win.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507498/original/file-20230201-14-nadod4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507498/original/file-20230201-14-nadod4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507498/original/file-20230201-14-nadod4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507498/original/file-20230201-14-nadod4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507498/original/file-20230201-14-nadod4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507498/original/file-20230201-14-nadod4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507498/original/file-20230201-14-nadod4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmer broke his own previous record by donating $117 million to his United Australia Party.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/James Ross</span></span>
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<h2>Who funded the 2022 election?</h2>
<p>Clive Palmer broke records again, with his mining company Mineralogy donating $117 million to his United Australia Party. This breaks his own previous record of $84 million in the lead up to 2019 election, and dwarfs all other donations on record. </p>
<p>Anthony Pratt’s paper and packaging company Pratt Holdings was the next largest donor in 2022, at $3.7 million, with the funds more or less evenly split between the Coalition and Labor.</p>
<p>Most of the major donors to Labor were unions (Figure 1), who collectively contributed more than half of all Labor’s declared donations. Labour Holdings, an investment arm of the party, was also a major contributor, and Pratt Holdings was the largest individual donor for Labor. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">How big money influenced the 2019 federal election – and what we can do to fix the system</a>
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<p>By contrast, most of the major donors to the Coalition were wealthy individuals and corporate donations funnelled through fundraising entities associated with the Liberal or National parties. The Coalition’s top five donors accounted for more than a third of their declared donations and included $3.9 million from the Cormack Foundation (an investment arm for the Liberal Party). Other big donors to the Coalition included Sugolena Holdings, owned by businessman and investor Isaac Wakil, and Jefferson Investments (Figure 1).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507488/original/file-20230201-12-qg0cdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Figure 1: Top Labor donors were mostly unions, while top Coalition donors were mostly wealthy individuals" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507488/original/file-20230201-12-qg0cdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507488/original/file-20230201-12-qg0cdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507488/original/file-20230201-12-qg0cdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507488/original/file-20230201-12-qg0cdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507488/original/file-20230201-12-qg0cdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507488/original/file-20230201-12-qg0cdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507488/original/file-20230201-12-qg0cdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Figure 1: Top Labor donors were mostly unions, while top Coalition donors were mostly wealthy individuals.</span>
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<h2>What about the Teal independents?</h2>
<p>Independents and other individual candidates collectively spent about $21 million at the 2022 federal election. While this was a lot more than the $7 million they spent in the 2019 federal election, it was only 5% of party expenditure in the 2022 election.</p>
<p>A big chunk of independent candidate funds came from pro-climate action donors – largely under the banner of Climate 200, an organisation set up to fund political action on climate change, with wealthy backers including Mike Cannon-Brookes, Scott Farquhar, and Simon Holmes à Court. Climate 200 donated $6 million across 19 candidates. Most other large donors were also Climate 200 donors.</p>
<p>But many of the Teal candidates ran strong grassroots campaigns too. For example, Monique Ryan raised $1.8 million from 3,762 donors for her successful campaign to unseat former treasurer Josh Frydenberg in the Melbourne seat of Kooyong.</p>
<h2>How to prevent donors ‘buying’ influence</h2>
<p>As a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/whos-in-the-room/">2018 Grattan Institute report</a> showed, political donations buy access and sometimes influence over public policy. While explicit quid pro quo is probably rare in Australia, the risk is in more subtle influences – that donors get more access to policymakers and their views are given more weight. These risks are exacerbated by a <a href="https://theconversation.com/influence-in-australian-politics-needs-an-urgent-overhaul-heres-how-to-do-it-103535">lack of transparency</a> in dealings between policymakers and special interests.</p>
<p>Political donations and lobbying activity should be much more transparent. This would in turn give politicians, journalists, and the broader public the information to call out those “in the room” – and speak out for those who are not.</p>
<p>There is a lot of private money we know nothing about in federal elections (Figure 2). To improve transparency, we believe the donations disclosure threshold should be lowered from the current threshold of $15,200. Labor has a policy to lower it to $1,000, which would mean all donations big enough to matter are on the public record. Political parties should be required to aggregate multiple donations from the same donor, so big donors can’t hide. And it is frankly ridiculous that donations data is released long after the election is over. Real-time disclosure already happens in some states, and it should happen federally as well. Voters should know who’s funding political campaigns when they go to the polls.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507485/original/file-20230201-20-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Figure 2: There’s a lot of private money funding elections" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507485/original/file-20230201-20-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507485/original/file-20230201-20-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507485/original/file-20230201-20-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507485/original/file-20230201-20-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507485/original/file-20230201-20-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507485/original/file-20230201-20-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507485/original/file-20230201-20-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Figure 2: There’s a lot of private money funding elections.</span>
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<p>Transparency is important, but it is not enough on its own. Ultimately, to reduce the influence of money in politics, parliament should introduce an expenditure cap during election campaigns. Limiting expenditure by political parties – and third parties – would reduce parties’ dependency on major donors and limit the “arms race” to raise more and more funds. </p>
<p>Politicians could still spread their messages far and wide – but they’d have to rely more on people power and less on private money.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198780/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iris Chan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Among the more arresting figures are that Clive Palmer spent more than the Labor Party on the 2022 election, and for the first time since 2010, the party that had the biggest wallet didn’t win.Kate Griffiths, Deputy Program Director, Grattan InstituteIris Chan, Fellow, Budgets and Government Program, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1953502022-11-25T05:55:46Z2022-11-25T05:55:46Z‘This case has made legal history’: young Australians just won a human rights case against an enormous coal mine<p>In a <a href="https://www.sclqld.org.au/caselaw/QLC/2022/21">historic ruling</a> today, a Queensland court has said the massive Clive Palmer-owned Galilee Basin coal project should not go ahead because of its contribution to climate change, its environmental impacts, and because it would erode human rights.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/these-young-queenslanders-are-taking-on-clive-palmers-coal-company-and-making-history-for-human-rights-138732">The case</a> was mounted in 2020 by a First Nations-led group of young people aged 13 to 30 called Youth Verdict. It was the first time human rights arguments were used in a climate change case in Australia.</p>
<p>The link between human rights and climate change is being increasingly recognised overseas. In September this year, for example, a United Nations <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-violated-the-rights-of-torres-strait-islanders-by-failing-to-act-on-climate-change-the-un-says-heres-what-that-means-191329">committee decided</a> that by failing to adequately address the climate crisis, Australia’s Coalition government violated the human rights of Torres Strait Islanders. </p>
<p>Youth Verdict’s success today builds on this momentum. It heralds a new era for climate change cases in Australia by youth activists, who have been frustrated with the absence of meaningful federal government policy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-violated-the-rights-of-torres-strait-islanders-by-failing-to-act-on-climate-change-the-un-says-heres-what-that-means-191329">Australia violated the rights of Torres Strait Islanders by failing to act on climate change, the UN says. Here's what that means</a>
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<h2>1.58 billion tonnes of emissions</h2>
<p>The Waratah Coal mine operation <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/the-first-nations-group-fighting-clive-palmers-mining-project/6xbg2e81w">proposes to</a> extract up to 40 million tonnes of coal from the Galilee Basin each year, over the next 25 years. This would <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/25/court-finds-clive-palmers-queensland-coalmine-will-harm-future-generations-in-landmark-climate-ruling?CMP=share_btn_tw">produce</a> 1.58 billion tonnes of carbon emissions, and is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/galilee-basin-farmers-object-to-palmer-mine/11764540">four times more</a> coal extraction than Adani’s operation.</p>
<p>While the project has already received approval at the federal government level, it also needs a state government mining lease and environmental authority to go ahead. Today, Queensland land court President Fleur Kingham has recommended to the state government that both entitlements be refused.</p>
<p>In making this recommendation, Kingham reflected on how the global landscape has changed since the Paris Agreement in 2015, <a href="https://theconversation.com/carmichael-mine-jumps-another-legal-hurdle-but-litigants-are-making-headway-69423">and since the last major challenge</a> to a mine in Queensland in 2016: Adani’s Carmichael mine. </p>
<p>She drew a clear link between the mining of this coal, its ultimate burning by a third party overseas, and the project’s material contribution to global emissions. She concluded that the project poses “unacceptable” climate change risks to people and property in Queensland. </p>
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<p>The Queensland <a href="https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/view/html/asmade/act-2019-005#">Human Rights Act</a> requires a decision-maker to weigh up whether there is any justifiable reason for limiting a human right, which could incorporate a consideration of new jobs. Kingham decided the importance of preserving the human rights outweighed the potential A$2.5 billion of economic benefits of the proposed mine.</p>
<p>From a legal perspective, I believe there are four reasons in particular this case is so significant.</p>
<h2>1. Rejecting an entrenched assumption</h2>
<p>A major barrier to climate change litigation in Queensland has been the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/landmark-rocky-hill-ruling-could-pave-the-way-for-more-courts-to-choose-climate-over-coal-111533">market substitution assumption</a>”, also known as the “perfect substitution argument”. This is the assertion that a particular mine’s contribution to climate change is net zero, because if that mine doesn’t supply coal, then another will. </p>
<p>Kingham rejected this argument. She noted that the economic benefits of the proposed project are uncertain with long-term <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/world-energy-outlook-2022-shows-the-global-energy-crisis-can-be-a-historic-turning-point-towards-a-cleaner-and-more-secure-future">global demand</a> for thermal coal set to decline. She observed that there’s a real prospect the mine might not be viable for its projected life, rebutting the market substitution assumption. </p>
<p>This is an enormous victory for environmental litigants as this was a previously entrenched argument in Australia’s legal system and policy debate.</p>
<h2>2. Evidence from First Nations people</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/on-country-evidence-in-landmark-case-against-clive-palmers-coal-project/6eiueghuy">It was also the first time</a> the court took on-Country evidence from First Nations people in accordance with their traditional protocols. Kingham and legal counsel travelled to Gimuy (around Cairns) and Traditional Owners showed how climate change has directly harmed their Country.</p>
<p>As Youth Verdict co-director and First Nations lead Murrawah Johnson <a href="https://www.edo.org.au/2022/04/20/landmark-hearing-into-clive-palmers-galilee-coal-project-legal-challenge-begins/">put it</a>:</p>
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<p>We are taking this case against Clive Palmer’s Waratah Coal mine because climate change threatens all of our futures. For First Nations peoples, climate change is taking away our connection to Country and robbing us of our cultures which are grounded in our relationship to our homelands.</p>
<p>Climate change will prevent us from educating our young people in their responsibilities to protect Country and deny them their birth rights to their cultures, law, lands and waters.</p>
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<p>This decision reflects the court’s deep engagement with First Nations’ arguments, in considering the impacts of climate change on First Nations people.</p>
<h2>3. The human rights implications</h2>
<p>In yet another Australian first, the court heard submissions on the human rights implications of the mine. </p>
<p>The Land Court of Queensland has a unique jurisdiction in these matters, because it makes a recommendation, rather than a final judgment. This recommendation must be taken into account by the final decision-makers – in this case, the Queensland resources minister, and the state Department of Environment and Science. </p>
<p><a href="https://archive.sclqld.org.au/qjudgment/2020/QLC20-033.pdf">In an earlier proceeding</a>, Kingham found the land court itself is subject to obligations under Queensland’s Human Rights Act. This means she must properly consider whether a decision to approve the mine would limit human rights and if so, whether limits to those human rights can be demonstrably justified. </p>
<p>Kingham found approving the mine would contribute to climate change impacts, which would limit: </p>
<ul>
<li>the right to life </li>
<li>the cultural rights of First Nations peoples </li>
<li>the rights of children</li>
<li>the right to property and to privacy and home<br></li>
<li>the right to enjoy human rights equally.</li>
</ul>
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<p>Internationally, there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/mass-starvation-extinctions-disasters-the-new-ipcc-reports-grim-predictions-and-why-adaptation-efforts-are-falling-behind-176693">clear links</a> made between climate change and human rights. For example, climate change is worsening heatwaves, risking a greater number of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hot-is-too-hot-for-the-human-body-our-lab-found-heat-humidity-gets-dangerous-faster-than-many-people-realize-185593">deaths</a>, thereby affecting the right to life. </p>
<h2>4. A victory for a nature refuge</h2>
<p>Kingham also considered the environmental impacts of the proposed mine on the <a href="https://bimblebox.org/about/">Bimblebox Nature Refuge</a> – 8,000 hectares semi-arid woodland, home to a recorded 176 bird species, in the Galilee Basin. </p>
<p>She deemed these impacts unacceptable, as “the ecological values of Bimblebox [could be] seriously and possibly irreversibly damaged”. </p>
<p>She also observed that the costs of climate change to people in Queensland have not been fully accounted for, nor have the costs of mining on the Bimblebox Nature Refuge. Further, she found the mine would violate Bimblebox Alliance’s right to family and home.</p>
<h2>Making history</h2>
<p>This case has made legal history. It is the first time a Queensland court has recommended refusal of a coal mine on climate change grounds, and the first case linking human rights and climate change in Australia. As Kingham concluded:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Approving the application would risk disproportionate burdens for future generations, which does not give effect to the goal of intergenerational equity. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The future of the project remains unclear. But in a year marked by climate-related disasters, the land court’s decision offers a ray of hope that Queensland may start to leave coal in the ground.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mass-starvation-extinctions-disasters-the-new-ipcc-reports-grim-predictions-and-why-adaptation-efforts-are-falling-behind-176693">Mass starvation, extinctions, disasters: the new IPCC report’s grim predictions, and why adaptation efforts are falling behind</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justine Bell-James receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She has previously been affiliated with the Environmental Defender's Office who were counsel for Youth Verdict and the Bimblebox Alliance.</span></em></p>Here are four reasons their victory is so significant.Justine Bell-James, Associate Professor, TC Beirne School of Law, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837222022-05-25T05:49:23Z2022-05-25T05:49:23ZClive Palmer and One Nation flopped at the election. What happened?<p>Many commentators tipped Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation to perform well this election by scooping up the “freedom” and anti-vax vote from voters angry about how the pandemic was handled.</p>
<p>But this wasn’t the case. </p>
<p>The parties did see a modest rise in their vote, but not enough to translate into significant electoral success. Neither party won any seats in the lower house. </p>
<p>UAP candidate Ralph Babet is likely to <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/24/meet-ralph-babet-clive-palmer-acolyte-and-maybe-victorias-newest-senator/">pick up Victoria’s sixth Senate seat</a> – in part thanks to preferences from the Coalition, who put UAP second on their how to vote cards in the state. But this may be all Palmer gets for his obscene campaign spending.</p>
<p>UAP leader and former Liberal MP Craig Kelly lost his seat of Hughes, and Palmer failed in his bid for a Queensland Senate spot.</p>
<p>One Nation also failed to pick up any extra Senate seats. Pauline Hanson is projected to hold onto her Senate seat, only just, while Malcolm Roberts continues as a Senator having earned a six year term in the 2019 federal election.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-and-the-federal-election-what-can-we-expect-from-hanson-palmer-lambie-and-katter-179567">populism researcher</a>, I’ve taken a keen interest in these minor parties. Here’s why I think they did so badly.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-populism-and-why-does-it-have-a-bad-reputation-109874">What actually is populism? And why does it have a bad reputation?</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<h2>United Australia Party</h2>
<p>UAP garnered about an extra 0.7% of the national primary lower house vote compared to 2019 (for a total of 4.1%), after spending an estimated A<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-07/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-election-spending-influence/100973064">$70</a>-<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/clive-palmers-massive-advertising-spend-fails-to-translate-into-electoral-success">$100 million</a>. In Queensland the party has thus far secured just 4.3% <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/palmer-and-hanson-fight-it-out-for-last-qld-senate-seat-20220522-p5angz">of the Senate vote</a> – and this is where Palmer himself was the lead Senate candidate.</p>
<p>While in 2019, the party didn’t have much of a platform outside of being anti-Bill Shorten, this wasn’t the case in 2022. They had visible policies on cost-of-living, such as housing affordability and investing Australian superannuation funds in Australian companies.</p>
<p>The party also tried to position itself as the voice of the “freedom” movement, opposing COVID lockdowns and vaccine mandates.</p>
<p>The fact that none of this seemed to resonate – particularly their interest rate policies – surprises me.</p>
<p>I expected the party’s populist, anti-major party, “freedom” agenda to resonate in some parts of the country. For example, many predicted UAP would <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/palmer-s-people-why-the-united-australia-party-will-do-particularly-well-in-victoria-20220427-p5aghd.html">poll well in the outer suburbs of Melbourne</a> where there’s high levels of anti-lockdown and anti-Dan Andrews sentiment.</p>
<p>While it did poll better than it has before in some of these areas, it didn’t translate into electoral success, nor make much of a dint in preferences as it did last election.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1519924322067832832"}"></div></p>
<h2>One Nation</h2>
<p>One Nation struggled despite fielding candidates in <a href="https://theconversation.com/race-for-the-senate-could-labor-and-the-greens-gain-control-181350">149</a> of 151 House of Representatives seats.</p>
<p>The party’s national primary lower house vote increased a bit – up about 1.8% to 4.9% – but this was mostly because it ran in many more seats than last election.</p>
<p>Early in the Senate vote count it looked like Hanson might lose her Senate seat, but now she’s <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/hanson-tipped-to-triumph-over-cannabis-candidate/news-story/1a17b8e14bb942c19b07c671b75b7d68">projected to just hold on</a>.</p>
<p>She faced fierce competition from Palmer, former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman, and a relatively unknown minor party called <a href="https://theconversation.com/legalise-cannabis-australia-did-well-at-the-ballot-box-but-reform-is-most-likely-to-come-from-a-cautious-approach-183612">Legalise Cannabis Australia</a>. Hanson is very well known – particularly in Queensland – so it was also surprising to see her fighting for her political life against a little known party.</p>
<h2>6 reasons why UAP and One Nation flopped</h2>
<p>So why did both parties fail to perform as well as some thought they might? Here are some of the key reasons:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>They were competing for the same small segment of the electorate. Both are populist right parties, they tried to brand themselves as the parties of the “freedom” movement, and likely took votes off each other in the process.</p></li>
<li><p>They were also competing for votes against the right wing of the Coalition, some of whose candidates share very similar views in terms of sentiments regarding immigration and vaccination mandates. </p></li>
<li><p>The wind has been taken out of the sails of the “freedom” movement. Since lockdowns finished and almost all COVID restrictions have been phased out, the cause is not as urgent. This freedom banner brought together disparate groups – spanning from the far-right to “wellness” and alternative health groups – but the links between the groups were always tenuous. Now the shared enemy of lockdowns has disappeared, there doesn’t seem to be social, class or political linkages holding them together. If this election was held last year – or even a few months ago – both parties might’ve had more success.</p></li>
<li><p>Populists often campaign against the “corruption” of the ruling classes. However, it was hard for UAP or One Nation to get much traction on this as almost every non-Coalition party or candidate – from Labor, to the Greens to the teal independents – was also campaigning on the same issue.</p></li>
<li><p>One Nation’s anti-immigration stance is one of its key policies. The fact that Australia had barely any immigration since the beginning of the pandemic made campaigning on the party’s bread-and-butter issue very difficult.</p></li>
<li><p>There’s been a lot of talk about parties using “<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-tracked-election-ad-spending-for-4-000-facebook-pages-heres-what-theyre-posting-about-and-why-cybersecurity-is-the-bigger-concern-182286">microtargeting</a>” in this election, but UAP’s strategy was the opposite. Their mass advertising and huge billboards were the modern equivalent to throwing a bunch of leaflets out of a moving plane. This election suggests this doesn’t work – you can’t just bombard people.</p></li>
</ol>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-end-of-the-two-party-system-in-australia-the-greens-teals-and-others-shock-the-major-parties-182672">Is this the end of the two-party system in Australia? The Greens, teals and others shock the major parties</a>
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</em>
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<p>None of this means we should write UAP or One Nation off for good. Hanson has proven herself a mainstay of Australian politics, and returned from the political wilderness before. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, Palmer has now contested three separate federal elections – each time, seemingly with a completely different platform. With his deep pockets, who knows whether or what he will run on in 2025.</p>
<p>This federal election, however, was not a “populist moment” for these parties. The real story in 2022 is not on the right, but on the other side of politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Moffitt receives funding from the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Early Career Researcher Award funding scheme and from the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation.</span></em></p>An expert on populism gives 6 reasons why these minor parties failed to gain electoral success.Benjamin Moffitt, Associate Professor, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1821232022-05-02T20:43:43Z2022-05-02T20:43:43ZClive Palmer, his money and his billboards are back. What does this mean for the 2022 federal election?<p>Clive Palmer has had a tough run leading up to the 2022 election campaign.
He faced COVID-19 without the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/clive-palmer-covid-battle-i-dont-regret-it/news-story/12c2b634f2e42176dd73dbca94f30aca">protection of vaccination</a> in March, tripped at his National Press Club speech and <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-election-2022-clive-palmer-fall-uap-campaign-launch-off-to-rocky-start-as-billionaire-knocked-unconscious/9972bd27-7c86-4b77-afc5-942d410540f2">reported being knocked unconscious</a> for about 20 seconds when he fell during a rehearsal for his United Australia Party (UAP) campaign launch in April. </p>
<p>Palmer, a dedicated litigant, has also suffered some recent <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/clive-palmer-a-no-show-in-court-as-lawyers-confirm-he-has-covid-19-20220309-p5a34e.html">set-backs</a> in the court room.</p>
<p>As it contests the 2022 federal election, is the UAP also on a downward trajectory or will it tap into populist sentiment reacting against vaccine mandates and climate change? </p>
<h2>UAP’s influence since 2013</h2>
<p>In the first federal election in 2013, Palmer’s share of the primary vote (as the Palmer United Party) was 5.49% nationally and about 11% in Queensland. This was enough to win a single seat in the lower house and three in the Senate. </p>
<p>There was no UAP federal campaign in 2016 due to Palmer stepping back to address the collapse of his Queensland Nickel company. But in 2019, he ran candidates in all lower house seats, winning a total of 3.4% of the national vote. The UAP was well short of the quota to land a Senate spot, even in Queensland.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the 2019 House of Representatives election saw a record vote of about 25% for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/20/votes-for-minor-parties-hurt-labor-but-palmer-overstates-his-influence">minor parties</a> overall, so preferences decided a record number of seats. This means minor parties deserve our serious attention in the 2022 election.</p>
<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/preference-flows-at-the-2019-federal-election/">has noted</a> while UAP’s preference flows didn’t significantly affect any results in 2019, its “anti-Labor message and broadcast weight of Clive Palmer’s political advertising” did have an impact. </p>
<h2>2022 challenges</h2>
<p>The UAP is fielding 22 Senate candidates, including Palmer, and running <a href="https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/candidates/">candidates</a> in every lower house seat. Palmer’s best chance of electoral success is in Queensland, where he is challenging Pauline Hanson, Campbell Newman and the Coalition’s Amanda Stoker for the final Queensland Senate spot. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/populism-and-the-federal-election-what-can-we-expect-from-hanson-palmer-lambie-and-katter-179567">Populism and the federal election: what can we expect from Hanson, Palmer, Lambie and Katter?</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>Palmer is certainly throwing plenty of money at the campaign, with <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-07/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-election-spending-influence/100973064">expectations</a> he will spend A$60-70 million in the lead up to election day. This compares with the unprecedented <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">$84 million</a> he spent in 2019.</p>
<p>This includes huge yellow billboards around the country, <a href="https://theconversation.com/clive-palmers-promise-to-cap-mortgage-rates-at-3-would-make-it-much-harder-to-get-a-home-loan-182058">(problematically) promising</a> to cap mortgage rates. </p>
<p>But so far, this spend has not delivered a bounce in the polls, and in 2019 it failed to translate into seats. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/clive-palmers-promise-to-cap-mortgage-rates-at-3-would-make-it-much-harder-to-get-a-home-loan-182058">Clive Palmer's promise to cap mortgage rates at 3% would make it much harder to get a home loan</a>
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<p>The UAP share of the primary vote has only slightly increased despite the massive spend at the start of the campaign and the impact of the pandemic. The most recent <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-labor-holds-big-lead-as-scott-morrison-rises/news-story/cd5b41ea2689f7fc5b2662a1218aec1a">Newspoll</a>, conducted April 27-30, showed the UAP vote steady at 4%. This is after spending millions on advertising. </p>
<h2>Key differences in 2022</h2>
<p>The familiar UAP yellow and the big budget is back, but there are some key differences in 2022. </p>
<p>The first is policy. In 2019, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/22/clive-palmer-says-he-decided-to-polarise-electorate-with-anti-labor-ads-to-ensure-coalition-win">focus of UAP advertising</a> was anti-Bill Shorten and anti-ALP sentiment. </p>
<p>But Palmer launched his 2022 campaign in Coolum, with the unexpected announcement the party would push for the enactment of a bill of rights to “save Australia”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Clive Palmer is driven in a buggy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460742/original/file-20220502-23-fxrd08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460742/original/file-20220502-23-fxrd08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460742/original/file-20220502-23-fxrd08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460742/original/file-20220502-23-fxrd08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460742/original/file-20220502-23-fxrd08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460742/original/file-20220502-23-fxrd08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460742/original/file-20220502-23-fxrd08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palmer is tipped to spend as much as $70 million on the 2022 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Other key UAP <a href="https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/national_policy/">policies</a> include <a href="https://theconversation.com/clive-palmers-promise-to-cap-mortgage-rates-at-3-would-make-it-much-harder-to-get-a-home-loan-182058">maximum 3% </a>interest on home loans, abolishing federal cabinet and bringing Australian super investments back from overseas. There is also a focus on opposing COVID measures, tapping into <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/05/kellys-heroes-can-the-uaps-politics-of-anger-derail-the-australian-election">anger</a> over restrictions and mandates. The focus on “freedom” may entice to voters after a difficult pandemic period for so many.</p>
<p>UAP damaged the ALP vote in 2019, but don’t expect the same thing this time. Palmer has pledged to put the Liberals, Labor and Greens <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/07/clive-palmer-says-uap-will-preference-major-parties-last-in-election">last</a> on how-to-vote cards, diffusing the impact on preferences. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-freedom-is-not-the-only-thing-worth-fighting-for-179103">Why 'freedom' is not the only thing worth fighting for</a>
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<h2>A new leader</h2>
<p>A second key difference in 2022 is new leader Craig Kelly (Palmer is now “chairman”). Former Liberal MP Kelly joined as UAP leader in August 2021, bringing his controversial positions on COVID, coal and climate change with him, as well as a significant following. </p>
<p>But will this help the UAP vote? Kelly has been rated as one of Australia’s “least likeable” politicians. In December 2021, a Resolve Political Monitor <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/palmer-hanson-joyce-lead-the-list-of-least-liked-politicians-20211208-p59fzk.html">survey</a> found only 9% of surveyed Australians had a positive view of Kelly. This was only slightly higher than Palmer, on 8%. Kelly faces a tough road to win his seat of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/hugh">Hughes</a> in 2022 without Liberal Party endorsement against a wide field.</p>
<p>Kelly has also been <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/craig-kelly-permanently-booted-from-facebook-for-covid-19-misinformation-20210426-p57mg6.html">permanently banned</a> from Facebook for disinformation, limiting his ability to reach supporters.</p>
<h2>Legal problems</h2>
<p>Beyond the campaign, Palmer (who has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-are-the-disputes-involving-clive-palmer-and-the-wa-government-about-20200819-p55ndk.html">listed</a> “litigation” as a hobby) is pursuing and facing distracting court action. </p>
<p>He recently <a href="https://www.uwa.edu.au/news/Article/2021/October/Why-did-the-High-Court-rule-against-Clive-Palmer-and-what-does-it-mean">lost</a> a case in the High Court against Western Australia on border closures and has been engulfed in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-13/clive-palmer-defamation-proceedings-evidence-hurts-mark-mcgowan/100901946">defamation proceedings</a> against WA Premier Mark McGowan.</p>
<p>Palmer is also facing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/28/clive-palmer-spends-hundreds-of-thousands-of-dollars-on-ads-condemning-asic">two sets of criminal charges</a> brought by ASIC. The first involves alleged breaches of <a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2018-releases/18-095mr-clive-palmer-and-his-company-palmer-leisure-coolum-charged-over-breaches-of-takeover-law/">takeover provisions</a> in the acquisition of his Coolum resort and the second relates to <a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2020-releases/20-163mr-clive-palmer-charged-over-breaches-of-directors-duties-and-fraud/">allegations</a> he improperly funded his successful 2013 election campaign. </p>
<p>The ASIC action is due to return to the Brisbane Supreme Court for a two-day hearing on May 31 and June 1. Apart from distracting from his election campaign, it could <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/clive-palmer-a-no-show-in-court-as-lawyers-confirm-he-has-covid-19-20220309-p5a34e.html">potentially</a> land Palmer in jail - making the Senate result irrelevant.</p>
<h2>What does Palmer actually want?</h2>
<p>As political scientist John Wanna <a href="https://medium.com/the-machinery-of-government/just-what-is-clive-palmer-up-to-d58f7e8c89fd">has noted</a>, we still don’t really know why Palmer is spending all this time, energy and money on elections: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Is it for political influence or policy influence? To achieve a higher profile? Buying his way to power? To let the ‘established’ political elite know he remains a key player perhaps? Or more genuinely attempting to represent ordinary Australian values, and shift policy contours?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Palmer has displayed a long interest in politics but perhaps he enjoys the game of it all. </p>
<p>And amid ongoing disquiet over his huge election spending, perhaps his
ultimate legacy will be to prompt overdue <a href="https://theconversation.com/few-restrictions-no-spending-limit-and-almost-no-oversight-welcome-to-political-advertising-in-australia-181248">reform</a> of political advertising regulation.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-politicians-and-political-parties-get-my-mobile-number-and-how-is-that-legal-168750">How did politicians and political parties get my mobile number? And how is that legal?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182123/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Harris Rimmer receives funding from the Australian Research Council and ONI. </span></em></p>Clive Palmer is running candidates all around the country and spending big. But so far, the United Australia Party vote is only around 4%.Susan Harris Rimmer, Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1820582022-04-29T02:26:45Z2022-04-29T02:26:45ZClive Palmer’s promise to cap mortgage rates at 3% would make it much harder to get a home loan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460476/original/file-20220429-25458-nh3jb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4031%2C3024&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party continues to make waves in the federal election campaign, most recently with advertisements on massive billboards pledging a “maximum 3% interest rate on all home loans for five years”. But does this promise stack up? </p>
<p>Keeping mortgage rates at their record lows for five years is a bold promise. Especially because – as Clive Palmer well knows – the government doesn’t set interest rates. </p>
<p>The key driver is the Reserve Bank of Australia, which sets the cash rate to keep inflation at a low and stable level of 2-3%. But once the cash rate is set, every other bank is entitled to lend money out at whatever competitive rate they want. They frequently diverge from the cash rate based on their cost of obtaining funding from Australian savers and from overseas.</p>
<p>On its <a href="https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/united-australia-party-outlines-economic-plan-for-freedom-and-prosperity/">website</a>, the United Australia Party (UAP) says it would “use the power of the Constitution to put a cap on the bank home lending rate at a maximum of 3% for the next five years.” (It also promises to introduce a 15% export licence for all iron ore exports from Australia, and “pledge the proceeds from such licences to be used for the retirement of the one trillion-dollar debt mountain that Australia faces”.)</p>
<p>For a moment, let’s run with this 3% idea from the UAP. Imagine for a minute it held the balance of power or even had a majority in both houses of parliament.</p>
<p>If UAP really did intend to try and deliver on an election promise to cap interest rates at 3% for five years, what would the flow-on effects be?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-interview-questions-for-the-next-rba-deputy-governor-179369">5 interview questions for the next RBA deputy governor</a>
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<h2>Mortgages just for the wealthiest</h2>
<p>The government did control interest rates for many years, until deregulation in the Hawke years. Government control of interest rates and the banking sector made home loans very hard to get, forcing Australians to set up inefficient building societies and credit unions to skirt around the regulations.</p>
<p>But, say the UAP passed a law saying you can’t lift interest rates above 3% – no matter what. You will soon run into problems.</p>
<p>The first is that if banks can’t make a profit on mortgages – if, for example, it costs 4% to borrow and they can only charge 3% – then lending doesn’t make financial sense for them. The banks will just stop writing mortgages entirely.</p>
<p>Even if they can squeak a small profit margin they may only write mortgages for the wealthiest and safest Australians to lend to. Wealthy households are less likely to default and thus are cheaper for banks to lend to.</p>
<p>In other words, a 3% cap on interest rates would lead to a situation where either banks stop mortgages entirely or greatly restrict them. A lot of would-be home owners will not be able to get a mortgage at all. </p>
<p>And if you can’t get a mortgage at all, then for most of us it doesn’t matter what the rate is because you can’t buy a house in the first place. If lending dried up, the number of house buyers would plummet, which would devalue homes. </p>
<p>The only thing worse than a banking system that is expensive is one that is in crisis and potentially getting bailed out or going bankrupt, which might very well imperil the financial stability of the banking sector and derail the economy.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1515224118177968130"}"></div></p>
<h2>OK, how else could they ensure a 3% interest rate for people?</h2>
<p>Apart from changing the law, another way to deliver on this commitment is by hugely increasing government spending. </p>
<p>Perhaps the government could pay home owners the difference between whatever their interest rate is and the promised 3%. So, say your interest rate was 4%. That’s 1% more than the promised 3%, so the government could pay that 1% difference for you, using taxpayer money.</p>
<p>Of course, that would be incredibly costly. Australia’s household debt is almost twice its income. Paying even a small share of the interest payments would be an enormous burden on the budget.</p>
<p>It would be, in effect, a subsidy for all mortgage owners; a hugely expensive giveaway to the richest people in Australia.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/few-restrictions-no-spending-limit-and-almost-no-oversight-welcome-to-political-advertising-in-australia-181248">Few restrictions, no spending limit, and almost no oversight: welcome to political advertising in Australia</a>
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<h2>Alright then, what if we just changed the RBA’s job description?</h2>
<p>There is a third way you could cap interest rates at 3% and that is to rewrite the RBA’s mandate and ban them from lifting the cash rate for five years.</p>
<p>But the reason the RBA pushes up interest rates is to help control inflation and the cost of living. That’s why there’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-hits-an-extraordinary-5-1-how-long-until-mortgage-rates-climb-181832">talk of an interest rate rise</a> after inflation hit a whopping 5.1% this week.</p>
<p>Banning the RBA from pushing up rates comes with real inflationary risks. That would overheat the economy and drive up inflation. You’d see hugely higher prices at the supermarket and the fuel pump.</p>
<p>Perhaps you think homeowners are more deserving than renters or pensioners or anyone in the economy who doesn’t have a mortgage. But I don’t.</p>
<h2>No free lunch</h2>
<p>In a recent podcast <a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-andrew-wilkie-invites-independent-candidates-to-call-him-for-a-chat-about-approaching-a-hung-parliament-181604">interview</a> with Michelle Grattan, independent MP Andrew Wilkie mentioned this UAP ad, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In my opinion, this is the worst campaign I’ve observed, as far as the mud slinging and the dishonesty. There used to be some limits on the dishonesty of the political parties and the candidates but there seem to be no limits this election. There’s a billboard down the road from Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, promising a 3% maximum mortgage rate. I mean, they know that’s just nonsense.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Whatever your view, it’s worth remembering there is no such thing as a free lunch in the economy. If you want to make something cheaper, you have to pay for it some other way.</p>
<p>You either have to pay for it from taxpayers’ money or you make the banks pay, which comes with a real risk of financial crisis.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/game-of-loans-australias-reserve-bank-loses-its-heir-apparent-178994">Game of Loans: Australia's Reserve Bank loses its heir apparent</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>From 2011 to 2013 Isaac Gross worked as an economist for the Reserve Bank of Australia.
</span></em></p>The government used to set interest rates but it doesn’t anymore. If UAP really did try to deliver on an election promise to cap interest rates at 3% for five years, what would the consequences be?Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1795672022-04-11T19:57:26Z2022-04-11T19:57:26ZPopulism and the federal election: what can we expect from Hanson, Palmer, Lambie and Katter?<p>Populist politicians have been household names in Australian politics over the past decade, from Pauline Hanson to Clive Palmer, Bob Katter and Jacqui Lambie. </p>
<p>They tend to only get a small amount of the popular vote – between them, at the last election, they attracted 7% of first preferences in the House of Representatives and 8.32% of the Senate vote. Yet they can play a big role on the Senate crossbench and can get significant concessions regarding their pet issues.</p>
<p>They can also change the tenor of politics in Australia, and the way their preferences fall - or how they spend their advertising dollars - can make or break close electoral races.</p>
<p>But where do these populist parties – who all <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-actually-is-populism-and-why-does-it-have-a-bad-reputation-109874">claim to speak for “the people” against “the elite”</a> – sit as we begin the 2022 federal election? </p>
<h2>Who are the main players to watch out for?</h2>
<p>Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, Palmer’s United Australia Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Jacqui Lambie Network are all fielding candidates in the upper and lower house elections. </p>
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<img alt="Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie in the senate." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456784/original/file-20220407-24494-j81bjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Pauline Hanson and Jacqui Lambie say on senate crossbench together during the last parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>In the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, two of these parties have sought to capitalise on anti-vaccination and anti-COVID vaccine mandate sentiments. </p>
<p>The United Australia Party has made this its core - maybe even single - issue. As you have surely seen on those yellow billboards, the party is promising “freedom” from the COVID restrictions and mandates of the past years. Meanwhile, party leader (and former Liberal MP) <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-craig-kellys-defection-leaves-government-with-razor-thin-majority-155897">Craig Kelly</a> spruiks <a href="https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013587.pub2/full">hydroxychloroquine</a>) and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ivermectin-is-a-nobel-prize-winning-wonder-drug-but-not-for-covid-19-168449">ivermectin</a> as COVID treatments, despite evidence showing they’re not effective.</p>
<p>He is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-07/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-election-spending-influence/100973064">tipped to spend</a> A$70 million on the campaign. In 2019, Palmer spent a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">record $84 million</a> without winning a seat, but claimed his <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-2019-clive-palmer-says-uap-ads-gave-coalition-win/11128160">anti-Shorten ads</a> “shifted” voters away from Labor. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-spot-if-someone-is-trying-to-mislead-you-when-it-comes-to-science-138814">5 ways to spot if someone is trying to mislead you when it comes to science</a>
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<p>One Nation has also tried to capitalise on the anti-vaccination movement’s prominence. While it is pushing its usual anti-immigration talking points, it has supplemented these with anti-mandate messaging, with Hanson and senator Malcolm Roberts appearing at anti-vaccine rallies in Canberra.</p>
<p>The other two populist parties are relying on their regional appeal.</p>
<p>The Jacqui Lambie Network is hoping to extend the former independent’s appeal more widely across Tasmania. The party’s message is all about making life better for the “underdog” – combining an anti-corruption message with campaigns for better healthcare, education and opportunities for young people and workers in Tasmania.</p>
<p>Katter’s Australian Party, meanwhile, portrays on a division between “the people” of rural Australia (particularly Far North Queensland) and the distant “elite” of Canberra and the big cities. As usual, it will be focusing on regional development, agricultural subsidies and ensuring FNQ gets fair treatment.</p>
<h2>What has changed since 2019?</h2>
<p>Coronavirus has markedly shifted the political, social and economic landscape since the last federal election.</p>
<p>Australia’s closed borders for much of 2020 and 2021 has made the anti-immigration position of One Nation less salient and effective, so it is no wonder they have pivoted to an anti-COVID mandate position to try and extend their appeal.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-curtains-for-clive-what-covid-means-for-populism-in-australia-153101">Is it curtains for Clive? What COVID means for populism in Australia </a>
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<p>Meanwhile, the United Australia Party has completely rebuilt itself around the issue, moving from its almost singularly “Stop Bill Shorten” message in 2019.</p>
<p>Beyond this, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sports-rorts-affair-shows-the-government-misunderstands-the-role-of-the-public-service-130796">repeated rorts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-morrison-government-faces-battle-over-integrity-commission-it-doesnt-really-want-169473">integrity scandals</a> during the Morrison government have given fuel to populists (as well as numerous independent candidates) to push for more transparency in politics.</p>
<h2>What are the key races to watch?</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Clive Palmer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457270/original/file-20220411-15-am14x3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmer is vying to re-enter federal parliament as a Queensland senator.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Other than Katter, who has held the seat of Kennedy since 1993, it is highly unlikely populist parties are going to have any success in the House of Representatives (despite the United Australia Party’s <a href="https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/fastest-growing-political-party-in-australian-history/">claim</a> Kelly will be the next prime minister). </p>
<p>The Senate is where things will be interesting. The Queensland senate race is the big one for populists, with the two most prominent populist politicians in the country - Hanson and Palmer - running for what will likely be the sixth seat in the state. They also face competition from former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman (running for the Liberal Democrats this time around).</p>
<p>The final seat in some other states will also be worth watching. In Tasmania, the Jacqui Lambie Network is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/mar/26/from-lambies-loud-girl-to-ericmentum-tasmanias-fierce-senate-race-is-a-taste-of-whats-to-come">throwing its resources</a> behind the campaign of Tammy Tyrell, their lead Senate candidate. Tyrell is a long-time office manager and advisor to Lambie (who is not up for re-election this time). </p>
<p>The Tasmanian Senate contest could see either see Liberal Eric Abetz, Tyrell, the United Australia Party or newcomers the Local Party take the seat. There’s also a very slim (but possible) chance One Nation or United Australia Party could win the sixth seat in New South Wales and Western Australia.</p>
<h2>What are the key unknowns?</h2>
<p>There are two big questions about populism in 2022. </p>
<p>First, has the political potency of the anti-vaccination/anti-lockdown message passed? As we enter the so-called era of “COVID-normal”, where restrictions are wound back and lockdowns are supposedly a thing of the past, it is unclear whether the United Australia Party and One Nation have backed the right horse at the right time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bob Katter and Pauline Hanson." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/457268/original/file-20220411-15-z8jc37.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Bob Katter (pictured here with Pauline Hanson) has stepped down as leader of his party, but is re-contesting the seat he has held for almost 30 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Second, are voters sick of the mainstream parties, or sick of the Morrison government? Populists prosper when there is a widespread sense of political malaise, but time will tell if they want to punish the political class in general, thus leading to a populist upswing, or the Morrison government specifically – in which we can expect much of that frustration to filter to a vote for Labor and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wentworth-project-polling-shows-voters-prefer-albanese-for-pm-and-put-climate-issue-first-in-teal-battle-179839">“teal” independents</a>.</p>
<p>Whether this is going to be a good election for populist parties in Australia remains to be seen: stay tuned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Moffitt receives funding from the Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Early Career Researcher Award funding scheme and from the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation.</span></em></p>Clive Palmer is back trying to win a Senate seat, while Jacqui Lambie is aiming to get a second senator elected.Benjamin Moffitt, Associate Professor, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1791032022-03-17T02:30:36Z2022-03-17T02:30:36ZWhy ‘freedom’ is not the only thing worth fighting for<p>With just two months to go before a federal election is due, we are being bombarded by broadcast ads and yellow billboards around Australia. Funded by Clive Palmer and endorsing his United Australia Party (UAP), they carry a simple message: FREEDOM FREEDOM FREEDOM.</p>
<p>Commentators have talked about the potential <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/disaffected-and-mad-as-hell-palmer-wooing-a-changing-demographic-20211229-p59kn9.html">demographic</a> these ads are designed to attract, and the relationship of the messaging and Palmer to the anti-vax movement, “freedom rallies” and convoys. </p>
<p>Then there is the extraordinary amount of money spent on the ads: Palmer has spent more than $31 million since August 2021 on political attack advertising for the UAP. His spending <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/clive-palmer-spends-100-times-more-than-major-parties-on-advertising-20220218-p59xq4.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1645353236-1">dwarfs the outlay of the major parties by a hundred-fold</a>. He has promised to run <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/clive-palmer-spends-100-times-more-than-major-parties-on-advertising-20220218-p59xq4.html">the most expensive election campaign</a> in the nation’s history, based on “freedom”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-curtains-for-clive-what-covid-means-for-populism-in-australia-153101">Is it curtains for Clive? What COVID means for populism in Australia </a>
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<p>We should not underestimate the power of <a href="https://www.fdrlibrary.org/four-freedoms">freedom</a> messaging. As a society, we have experienced unprecedented constraints on normal freedoms over the past two years. Regardless of any justification for relevant restrictions, a visceral backlash from a significant number of people should not be surprising.</p>
<p>In late July 2021, we conducted a human rights survey of 1,000 people in Queensland. The following question, which was not mandatory, garnered about 800 valid responses: What are the human rights that are most important to you?</p>
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<p>While issues relating to equality and discrimination attracted the most responses, the combined total for “freedom of speech” and “freedom” generally was 28.7%. If we add “freedom from vaccines”, that goes up to 29.9%. </p>
<p>While many have dismissed the “freedom protests” across Australia as <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/conservative-and-fringe-links-behind-qld-anti-mandate-groups-20211208-p59g7k.html">fringe movements</a>, this survey indicates that nearly 30% of those who responded to this question felt “freedom” of some sort to be the most important human right. And this was in Queensland, which did not have the same experience of lockdowns as Victoria and New South Wales.</p>
<p>“Freedom” tends to denote a preference for government non-interference. But the responses regarding vulnerability and safety (which a combined 12.3% listed as their top priority human rights issues, and, arguably, economic social and cultural rights and equality/discrimination, for a combined 31.97%), tend to favour greater government intervention and action.</p>
<p>There were divergent views on this question among different demographics. For example, men were significantly more concerned than women about freedom of speech (19.6% compared to 13.7%) and civil and political rights (20% compared to 12.2%). </p>
<p>The oldest respondents were those most likely to choose “freedom”, and especially “freedom of speech”. First Nations respondents were much more likely to choose economic social and cultural rights (19% compared to 12.6%), and less than one-third as likely to choose civil and political rights (4.8% compared to 15.6%).</p>
<p>We found the higher the respondents’ level of education, the less concerned they were with equality and discrimination, while concern with civil and political rights increased. As a final example, concerns about “freedom of speech” and “freedom” were much higher among lower-to-middle-income groups compared to wealthier respondents.</p>
<p>The demographic differences are not easy to interpret. The results might indicate the groups that are traditionally more vulnerable to rights abuses (for example, women, First Nations people, the less educated) are more likely to prioritise rights that seem to require proactive government. </p>
<p>However, the results are not entirely in keeping with this observation. Concerns over freedom were more apparent among lower-income groups compared to higher-income groups, and among older Queenslanders.</p>
<p>What it clearly tells us, though, is that it is vitally important to reclaim the word “freedom” as a human rights concept. The political conversation this year needs to remind people that “freedom” is important, but other concepts also inform human rights. These are, notably, equality, fraternity and dignity: freedom is not absolute. </p>
<p>“Freedom to” and “freedom from” are rights that must be balanced against one another: for example, the right to make religious statements and the rights of trans children to an education. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-debate-about-religious-discrimination-is-back-so-why-do-we-keep-hearing-about-religious-freedom-169643">The debate about religious discrimination is back, so why do we keep hearing about religious 'freedom'?</a>
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<p>Government non-interference might, for example, seem desirable to many when it comes to personal choices. But it is certainly undesirable when, for example, people need help recovering from floods or in gaining access to medical treatment. </p>
<p>Opponents of the UAP should avoid anti-freedom messaging. They should focus instead on reclaiming the word <a href="https://time.com/5882978/freedom-definition-history/">freedom</a> as an emancipatory ideal that is a core component of human rights, but not the only one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Harris Rimmer receives funding from the Australian Research Council and ONI.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Joseph does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows a large percentage of Australians value “freedom” as the most important human right – but politicians need to offer a more sophisticated version of that ideal.Susan Harris Rimmer, Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversitySarah Joseph, Professor of Human Rights Law, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1724112021-11-26T03:59:33Z2021-11-26T03:59:33ZCOVID death data can be shared to make it look like vaccines don’t work, or worse – but that’s not the whole picture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434067/original/file-20211126-21-10wvpiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C91%2C5496%2C3283&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos-cdn.aap.com.au/Image/20211125001600044798?path=/aap_dev14/device/imagearc/2021/11-25/86/7a/75/aapimage-7ik9b1vqytg1ddce78ql_layout.jpg">Julian Stratenschulte/dpa via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Social media posts commenting on data from <a href="https://twitter.com/CraigKellyMP/status/1410774446114172929">the UK</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/mydocfrank/posts/2584678751677451">Israel</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/mydocfrank/posts/2599181006893892">South Africa</a>, among others, claim deaths from COVID (<a href="https://twitter.com/HettingClaus/status/1462387732739670018">or all deaths</a>) are now higher in vaccinated than unvaccinated citizens. Others make the more moderate claim <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/25/factcheck-clive-palmer-uses-12-minute-radio-interview-to-make-false-covid-claims">vaccines do nothing</a> to prevent death from COVID. </p>
<p>These reports appear intimidating, because they usually utilise real data or statistics. <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201">Many of the raw numbers presented</a> are indeed correct, though not complete. </p>
<p>But people – including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/25/factcheck-clive-palmer-uses-12-minute-radio-interview-to-make-false-covid-claims">Clive Palmer</a> who said this week vaccines don’t work and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/health-regulator-moves-to-take-on-craig-kelly-over-misleading-vaccine-texts-20210910-p58qnl.html">Craig Kelly</a> who spread vaccine misinformation via text message – should ask whether they have understood the context, analysed the data properly and interpreted the results accurately.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-vaccinated-people-are-not-just-as-infectious-as-unvaccinated-people-if-they-get-covid-171302">No, vaccinated people are not 'just as infectious' as unvaccinated people if they get COVID</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>What counts as ‘vaccinated’?</h2>
<p>When comparing studies or statistics, a lot hinges on how data providers define “vaccinated”. </p>
<p>Some vaccines are single-dose, others are double-dose regimens. Most jurisdictions define “fully vaccinated” as two weeks after the last required dose, but some social media posts like <a href="https://archive.md/FzsHg%22%22">this one</a> lump together anyone who has had any dose. </p>
<p>Some jurisdictions track patients in the interim period, others more crudely lump them with the partially vaccinated. We also have to compare patients who have received different vaccines, or mixed vaccine doses. Soon we will have to track those who have received booster shots. </p>
<p>To complicate things further, not all jurisdictions publish the necessary level of detail. Thankfully, we do have some good data at our fingertips: NSW <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx">is on track</a> to become one of the most <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">highly vaccinated jurisdictions</a> in the world, and has <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/weekly-reports.aspx">published</a> very detailed data with <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20211108_01.aspx">comparisons between vaccinated and unvaccinated cases</a> that show vaccination is highly effective.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/now-everyones-a-statistician-heres-what-armchair-covid-experts-are-getting-wrong-144494">Now everyone's a statistician. Here's what armchair COVID experts are getting wrong</a>
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<h2>Not all numbers are equal</h2>
<p>Focusing on an <a href="https://www.mathsisfun.com/definitions/absolute-value.html">absolute number</a> – how far it is from zero, regardless of its relative value in the real world – can be very misleading. </p>
<p>Let’s say 95% of <a href="https://stat.data.abs.gov.au/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ERP_QUARTERLY">NSW’s entire population</a> of approximately 8,000,000 was fully vaccinated. That’s 7.6 million people. Imagine 0.05% of fully vaccinated people needed to be hospitalised with COVID. That’s just shy of 4,000 people.</p>
<p>Let’s also say 1% of the remaining 400,000 unvaccinated people were hospitalised with COVID. That’s 4,000 people.</p>
<p>So the absolute number of hospitalised vaccinated people would be similar to the hospitalised unvaccinated people.</p>
<p>But, less than 0.05% of fully vaccinated people are in hospital, compared to 1% of unvaccinated people – that’s 20 times higher!</p>
<p>The same scenario could be applied to absolute numbers of COVID deaths.</p>
<p>Another way to explain this relates to what’s known as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/08/31/covid-israel-hospitalization-rates-simpsons-paradox/">Simpon’s paradox</a>: when a very <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-06/coronacheck-israel-higher-numbers-vaccinated-people-infected/100353540">large proportion of the population is vaccinated</a>, it is quite likely that a larger absolute number of cases will be vaccinated rather than unvaccinated. To compare effects, one must instead <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination">focus on the rates of cases and death</a> from COVID. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1457456574566440961"}"></div></p>
<h2>COVID doesn’t affect everyone in the same way</h2>
<p>COVID hospitalisation and death rates are skewed sharply by <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19741-6">sex</a>, pre-existing health conditions like <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0243600">metabolic syndrome</a>, and <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259">age</a>. So, men are more likely to die than women and the same is true for older people and those with other health problems.</p>
<p>And almost all countries vaccinated the most at-risk populations first. Some, like the elderly, already displayed higher death rates. Given the most likely to die are the first vaccinated, then we may see more deaths in the group vaccinated first. The vaccine will have lessened the deaths, but at-risk people were always more likely to die. </p>
<p>To truly discern the effect of the vaccine, then, one has to compare rates across matched levels of risk, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated">especially age</a>. A very good <a href="https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated">analysis matches different levels of age risk on the Israeli data</a> and shows that even though the absolute number of vaccinated hospitalised cases was more than the unvaccinated hospitalisations, the Pfizer vaccine still showed good effectiveness against severe disease.</p>
<p>The two charts below, prepared from figures via <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus">Our World in Data</a>, show the cases, deaths, and vaccinations for <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel">Israel</a> and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom">the UK</a> across the entire pandemic. Both experienced three waves, with the third being after the start of vaccinations. Both showed dramatically fewer deaths in the third wave, even though case numbers were high (for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2021-09-09/covid-19-israel-vaccination-high-case-rates-lessons-australia/100442304">Israel, the highest of the three waves</a>).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434064/original/file-20211126-17-1iylx2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="graph showing covid vaccinations and death" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434064/original/file-20211126-17-1iylx2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434064/original/file-20211126-17-1iylx2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434064/original/file-20211126-17-1iylx2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434064/original/file-20211126-17-1iylx2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434064/original/file-20211126-17-1iylx2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434064/original/file-20211126-17-1iylx2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434064/original/file-20211126-17-1iylx2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Israel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/">Author compiled from ourworldindata.org</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434063/original/file-20211126-25-18ybfnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="graph showing covid vaccinations and death" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434063/original/file-20211126-25-18ybfnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434063/original/file-20211126-25-18ybfnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434063/original/file-20211126-25-18ybfnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434063/original/file-20211126-25-18ybfnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434063/original/file-20211126-25-18ybfnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434063/original/file-20211126-25-18ybfnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434063/original/file-20211126-25-18ybfnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/">Author compiled from ourworldindata.org</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Some posts <a href="https://twitter.com/HettingClaus/status/1462387732739670018">like this one</a> claim to show “vaccine-caused mortality” but ignore <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland">uneven risk across the population</a>. The rates are higher for unvaccinated people in all other age groups (conveniently omitted from the chart) and, more importantly, the data report states: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>For the 10–59 age group, the vaccinated population will on average be older than the unvaccinated population … As mortality rates are higher for older people, this will increase the mortality rates for the vaccinated population compared to the unvaccinated population.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Making sense of all the numbers</h2>
<p>We know there are “<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/51291.How_to_Lie_with_Statistics">lies, damned lies, and statistics</a>”. And yet, some spurious social media claims rely on real numbers. </p>
<p>So the question isn’t: should you believe the statistics? Rather: which statistics should you believe? The best advice is to step back and look at the bigger picture. </p>
<p>When this pandemic winds down, there could be a day when there is only one hospitalised COVID patient. If that patient were to be vaccinated, would we say that 100% of hospitalised patients are vaccinated, and therefore the vaccines don’t work? </p>
<p>We need to look at the numbers over the whole course of the pandemic, or even over a single wave of infection, to see things more clearly. A single set of numbers does not show the whole picture.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-covid-cases-in-india-decreasing-despite-the-low-double-vaccination-rate-171736">Why are COVID cases in India decreasing, despite the low double vaccination rate?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172411/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacques Raubenheimer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Clive Palmer says vaccines don’t work and Craig Kelly is among those misinterpreting statistics to suggest COVID vaccines are causing more deaths overseas.Jacques Raubenheimer, Senior Research Fellow, Biostatistics, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1696332021-10-13T05:58:47Z2021-10-13T05:58:47ZExplainer: why did the High Court rule against Clive Palmer and what does the judgment mean?<p>The High Court has unanimously <a href="https://cdn.hcourt.gov.au/assets/publications/judgment-summaries/2021/hca-30-2021-10-13.pdf">rejected</a> claims by mining magnate Clive Palmer and his company Mineralogy that legislation passed by the Western Australian parliament intended to prevent him from claiming billions in damages was unconstitutional.</p>
<p>The High Court’s decisions are a resounding victory for the Western Australian government. In the short term, the state has been spared a damages claim that may have amounted to nearly $30 billion – almost equivalent to its annual budget. </p>
<p>WA Premier Mark McGowan called the judgment a “monumental victory” for West Australians, saying it confirmed the parliament did “the right thing” by standing up to Palmer.</p>
<p>So, what did the court find and what will it mean for the state moving forward?</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1448076503380545545"}"></div></p>
<h2>What the dispute is about</h2>
<p>The dispute between Palmer and the WA government began in 2012 over an iron ore project in the Pilbara. Palmer argued his development proposals for the Balmoral South iron ore project were unlawfully refused by the previous state government. </p>
<p>These claims were pursued through arbitration – a dispute resolution process that happens outside the courts. </p>
<p>In an extraordinary step last year, the WA parliament <a href="https://7news.com.au/news/wa/palmer-v-wa-saga-to-drag-on-as-laws-pass-c-1238792">passed</a> the so-called Mineralogy Act, which sought to protect the state from having to pay any damages to Palmer.</p>
<p>Palmer challenged the Mineralogy Act on a host of grounds, all of which were rejected by the High Court.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-clive-palmer-could-challenge-the-act-designed-to-stop-him-getting-30-billion-145098">How Clive Palmer could challenge the act designed to stop him getting $30 billion</a>
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<h2>The state can amend agreements with mining companies</h2>
<p>As is common in the mining industry, Mineralogy holds its mining project rights under a “state agreement” with WA. This is an agreement that sets out a framework for mining approvals and payments and is incorporated in an <a href="https://www.legislation.wa.gov.au/legislation/prod/filestore.nsf/FileURL/mrdoc_43096.htm/$FILE/Iron%20Ore%20Processing%20(Mineralogy%20Pty%20Ltd)%20Agreement%20Act%202002%20-%20%5B00-c0-01%5D.html?OpenElement">act of parliament</a>. </p>
<p>Palmer claimed the WA parliament did not follow the proper amendment process outlined in the state agreement when it unilaterally passed the Mineralogy Act. </p>
<p>However, the High Court said the process in the agreement did not apply to parliament. As such, parliament could unilaterally amend the state agreement. </p>
<p>This could have implications for other state agreements with mining companies, as the state could likely change the terms whenever it wants to.</p>
<h2>Denying arbitration awards not unconstitutional</h2>
<p>Palmer and Mineralogy were granted <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-clive-palmer-could-challenge-the-act-designed-to-stop-him-getting-30-billion-145098">two favourable arbitration decisions</a> that were key to their damages claims. He had registered the two awards in the Queensland Supreme Court.</p>
<p>However, the Mineralogy Act deems these arbitration awards to be of no effect. </p>
<p>Palmer argued this meant the Mineralogy Act breached section 118 of the Australian Constitution, which requires full recognition of the laws of other states (in this case, Queensland). </p>
<p>The High Court rejected this argument because all states’ commercial arbitration laws permit a court to refuse to recognise an award if it is invalid in the state where it was made, in this case Western Australia.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1448105495634579464"}"></div></p>
<h2>Not a breach separation of powers</h2>
<p>The separation of powers is a key constitutional principle that says powers should be separated between the three branches of government – the legislature, executive and the judiciary.</p>
<p>Palmer argued the Mineralogy Act interfered with the integrity of the state courts and was an exercise of judicial power by the Western Australian parliament.</p>
<p>The High Court found the effect of the Mineralogy Act might be to change existing legal rights, but this did not amount to a breach of the separation of powers. </p>
<p>The law may have been extreme, but the court ruled it did not interfere with the integrity of the courts, nor was it an exercise of judicial power by the parliament.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-mark-mcgowan-the-wa-leader-with-a-staggering-88-personal-approval-rating-156293">Meet Mark McGowan: the WA leader with a staggering 88% personal approval rating</a>
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<h2>…or a breach of rule of law</h2>
<p>Palmer also argued the Mineralogy Act breached the rule of law by preventing him and his company from pursuing their damages claim.</p>
<p>Although the Australian Constitution does not expressly mention the rule of law, the High Court has said on more than one occasion that it is an “assumption” of the Constitution. </p>
<p>However, the High Court has also said the courts should be wary of giving content to the rule of law that cannot be found in the Constitution itself. In other words, Palmer needed to point to specific provisions of the Constitution that supported his claim the rule of law had been breached. This he was unable to do.</p>
<p>The Mineralogy Act may have changed legal rights, but the court said it did not amount to a breach of the rule of law under the Constitution.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-clive-palmers-60-million-campaign-limits-on-political-advertising-are-more-important-than-ever-117099">After Clive Palmer's $60 million campaign, limits on political advertising are more important than ever</a>
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<h2>What are the potential implications of the ruling?</h2>
<p>Mineralogy and Palmer have a number of other related court cases on foot, including a <a href="https://www.comcourts.gov.au/file/Federal/P/QUD257/2020/actions">consumer law claim</a> against Western Australia. </p>
<p>While the High Court did not consider the validity of provisions under the new law directly related to these claims, its ruling may still have an impact. By finding in favour of the state for some of the Mineralogy Act provisions, it may undermine the basis for Palmer’s other claims.</p>
<p>From a political standpoint, the outcome is also likely to bolster the popularity of the McGowan government. </p>
<p>Palmer has also claimed the Mineralogy Act would deter companies from investing in WA, but whether the new law – or the High Court judgement – undermines investor confidence in the state remains to be seen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169633/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Wesson has previously received funding from the International Mining for Development Centre (IM4DC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Murray has previously received funding from Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and the Minerals Council of Australia for research relating to Indigenous benefits management structures.</span></em></p>The court said WA’s new law to prevent Palmer from collecting damages against the state was not unconstitutional. Here’s why.Murray Wesson, Senior Lecturer in Law, The University of Western AustraliaIan Murray, Associate Professor, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1687502021-09-30T03:55:20Z2021-09-30T03:55:20ZHow did politicians and political parties get my mobile number? And how is that legal?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423276/original/file-20210927-45889-10mjfd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C33%2C5607%2C3690&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Former Liberal backbencher Craig Kelly recently spammed large numbers of Australian voters by sending bulk text messages to their mobile phone numbers. </p>
<p>The spam texts, one of which promoted Kelly’s anti-vax views, struck many recipients as an invasion of privacy and triggered thousands of complaints to the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA). </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1436087541925507087"}"></div></p>
<p>Kelly said the messages were “100% legal.” He is right.</p>
<p>Indeed, Australia’s <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2016C00614">anti-spam law</a> applies only to “commercial” messaging and specifically exempts political communication (Section 44) — including text messages like Kelly’s. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-therapeutic-goods-administration-has-the-power-to-stop-misleading-advertising-so-why-cant-it-stop-craig-kellys-texts-168083">The Therapeutic Goods Administration has the power to stop misleading advertising. So why can't it stop Craig Kelly's texts?</a>
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<p>Some have <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/sms-spam-shakeup-new-laws-could-let-aussies-unsubscribe-from-unwanted-political-text-messages/news-story/6ec6668e6e343a913277ac8487e5a556">proposed</a> changes that would allow people to unsubscribe from unwanted political text messages. </p>
<p>But it is likely in future we will see more, not less, unsolicited text messaging — and not just in politics. </p>
<h2>How did they get my number?</h2>
<p>Kelly, who joined Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party earlier this year, has said he used software to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/united-australia-party-leader-craig-kelly-defends-spam-messages-20210829-p58mv7.html">generate random mobile numbers</a>.</p>
<p>That’s plausible: there are plenty of <a href="https://www.coolgenerator.com/phone-number-generator">sites</a> that will perform this relatively simple task. </p>
<p>But it is not cheap to upload the random numbers onto a server that can send text messages. It’s also not efficient, as many of the randomly generated numbers will not be real numbers. </p>
<p>Then again, Palmer’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/clive-palmer-spent-83-million-on-failed-election-bid-20200203-p53x4j">track record</a> of lavish electoral expenditure in the 2019 federal election suggests he can afford such an approach. </p>
<p>Kelly did not reveal the actual number of text messages he sent, though it is likely to be in the thousands.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-political-parties-legally-harvest-your-data-and-use-it-to-bombard-you-with-election-spam-148803">How political parties legally harvest your data and use it to bombard you with election spam</a>
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<p>There are plenty of other ways in which your mobile phone number might end up being fodder for marketing campaigns. </p>
<p>Think how many times you provide your private contact details for retail and financial transactions, social media accounts, ID checks, entertainment subscriptions. </p>
<p>Now ask yourself: how often do you read the privacy policy of the company or organisation collecting your data? </p>
<p>The reality is your private details have a commercial value. In the murky world of data harvesting, they can be transferred and bundled up into <a href="https://australiantelemarketingleads.net/shop/consumer-leads/consumer-mobile-numbers-database">large data bases</a> and rented out to <a href="https://www.directmarketinglistsaustralia.com.au/about-us">telemarketers</a> — or they can be <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_data_breaches">leaked</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/apr/05/facebook-data-leak-2021-breach-check-australia-users">hacked</a>.</p>
<p>These can include your mobile phone numbers.</p>
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<h2>How is that legal?</h2>
<p>By and large Australian phone numbers, including both landline and mobile services, are well secured. Access to the Integrated Public Number Database (IPND), managed by Telstra, is <a href="https://www.acma.gov.au/accessing-ipnd#access-to-unlisted-numbers-ipnd-regulations">overseen by the Australian Communications and Media Authority</a>. </p>
<p>Phone subscribers can choose to have a “silent” (unlisted) number, and can opt out of telemarketing calls via the <a href="https://www.donotcall.gov.au/about/about-the-do-not-call-register/">do not call register</a>.</p>
<p>But even here, there are political exemptions. Researchers can be given permission to call numbers from the IPND to conduct interview-based research – including market research into “federal state and local government electoral matters.”</p>
<p>ACMA can <a href="https://www.acma.gov.au/articles/2021-06/crackdown-financial-services-marketing-kalkine-companies-pay-350000-penalty">punish</a> companies that misuse numbers for “spam” marketing purposes.</p>
<p>But both Telstra and ACMA are clear <a href="https://exchange.telstra.com.au/blocking-political-text-messages/">they can’t block political parties</a>, along with charities and some government agencies, from sending unsolicited marketing numbers.</p>
<h2>What about the electoral roll?</h2>
<p>When you enrol to vote, you provide your full name, date of birth, current residential address, phone number or numbers, email address and citizenship. You also need proof of identity such as a driver’s licence or passport. </p>
<p>These details are <a href="https://twitter.com/AusElectoralCom/status/1437181665282043905">well protected</a> and support Australia’s system of compulsory voting. Again, however, under the Electoral Act, your name and address can be provided to members of parliament, registered political parties and candidates for the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>For both major parties, ALP and Liberal, that information forms the basis of the large data bases they have assembled for targeted campaigning: making phone calls, knocking on doors, sending automated “robocalls” and texting.</p>
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<h2>Why are political parties exempt?</h2>
<p>When Kelly joined Palmer’s party, he not only accessed Palmer’s campaign war chest. Registered political parties enjoy special treatment under Australian electoral law – including entitlement to public funding for their campaign costs, and exemptions from privacy rules governing access to personal data.</p>
<p>The rationale for the exemption is that no regulator should impede the free flow of information about electoral choice. </p>
<p>The argument is that claims and counterclaims by different politicians and parties — even false claims about vaccinations — constitute the lifeblood of democracy and should be resolved, ultimately, at the ballot box, not in the courts. </p>
<p>All this is underpinned by the High Court’s finding that the constitution “implies” the <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/rights-and-freedoms/freedom-information-opinion-and-expression">freedom of political communications</a> to the extent necessary to allow the operation of democratic government.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/83-of-australians-want-tougher-privacy-laws-nows-your-chance-to-tell-the-government-what-you-want-149535">83% of Australians want tougher privacy laws. Now’s your chance to tell the government what you want</a>
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<p>For all these reasons, political advertising in Australia is largely unregulated. It doesn’t have to be truthful or factual. Courts and regulators would be reluctant in the midst of an election campaign to adjudicate on truth; voters are expected to have the wisdom to work it all out at the ballot box.</p>
<p>Of course, political parties are not just the beneficiaries of this lack of regulation; they are in a real sense its authors. The capacity of rival parties to collaborate in shaping laws to suit themselves forms a key pillar of the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/40407077">cartel theory of parties</a>. </p>
<p>The main, virtually the sole, regulatory requirement for political ads is they are “authorised” – that is, they include the name of a person responsible for them. Authorisation provides accountability for political statements. </p>
<h2>Remember ‘Mediscare’?</h2>
<p>Back in 2016, however, SMS messages were not covered by this requirement. At the end of the 2016 federal election campaign, the Queensland Labor Party sent a bulk text message promoting its <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-we-should-have-seen-labors-medicare-sms-coming-62177">scare campaign about Liberal plans to “privatise Medicare”</a>. </p>
<p>The text messages were not authorised and, moreover, purported to come from “Medicare.” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"755906429681274881"}"></div></p>
<p>The law was <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshButler/status/847218189821853696">tightened</a> in 2019. Kelly’s text messages were <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/April/Authorising_online_political_communication">authorised</a>, by himself. </p>
<h2>Is this likely to happen more often in the future?</h2>
<p>During the Black Summer bushfires, blazes ripped through Cobargo on the far south coast of New South Wales. As part of the nation’s emergency warning system, thousands of landlines and mobile phones — my own included — were <a href="https://www.emergencyalert.gov.au/frequently-asked-questions/how-will-it-work-on-my-landline.html">alerted</a> with urgent warnings to evacuate. </p>
<p>Alerts were sent to mobiles according to their registered service address and also to the “last known location of the handset at the time of the emergency.” </p>
<p>It is a far cry from Kelly, and no one envisages political parties being able to target voters by this kind of electronic geo-location. </p>
<p>But it suggests the ability to send brief, urgent and unsolicited text messages, to large numbers of people, is too valuable to ignore. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-we-should-have-seen-labors-medicare-sms-coming-62177">Three reasons why we should have seen Labor's 'Medicare SMS' coming</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168750/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Mills does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is likely in future we will see more, not less, unsolicited text messaging — and not just in politics.Stephen Mills, Hon Senior Lecturer, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1666792021-08-24T08:57:58Z2021-08-24T08:57:58ZPodcast with Michelle Grattan: The battle to exit COVID<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/417562/original/file-20210824-27-l3tz7k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3994%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan now includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team.</p>
<p>In this episode, politics + society editor Amanda Dunn and Michelle discuss the frictions as vaccination rates rise and the debate turns to lifting lockdowns and border restrictions. They also canvass the Morrison government’s modest promise on Afghan refugees, and crossbencher Craig Kelly’s announcement he’ll lead Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party at the election.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/politics-with-michelle-grattan/id703425900?mt=2"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3BvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbWljaGVsbGUtZ3JhdHRhbi5yc3M"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation-4/politics-with-michelle-grattan"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Politics-with-Michelle-Grattan-p227852/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-WRElBZ"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5NkaSQoUERalaLBQAqUOcC"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p><a href="https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Blue_Dot_Sessions/Azalai/Gaena">Gaena</a>, Blue Dot Sessions, from Free Music Archive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166679/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses politics with politics + society editor, Amanda DunnMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1660992021-08-16T04:56:25Z2021-08-16T04:56:25ZWhy Clive Palmer’s lockdown ads can be rejected by newspapers on ethical grounds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416205/original/file-20210815-27-1gqr50e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Jono Searle</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party advertisements inferentially objecting to COVID-19 lockdowns demonstrate one more way in which the freedoms essential to a democracy can be abused to the detriment of the public interest.</p>
<p>Democracies protect freedom of speech, especially political speech, because without it democracy cannot work. When speech is harmful, however, laws and ethical conventions exist to curb it.</p>
<p>The laws regulating political advertising are minimal.</p>
<p><a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s329.html">Section 329 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act</a> is confined to the issue of whether a publication is likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote. It has nothing to say about truth in political advertising for the good reason that defining truth in that context would be highly subjective and therefore oppressive.</p>
<p>Sections 52 and 53 of the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2010C00426">Trade Practices Act</a> make it an offence for corporations to engage in misleading or deceptive conduct, or to make false or misleading representations. The act has nothing to say about political advertising.</p>
<p>Ad Standards, the industry self-regulator, has a code of ethics that enjoins advertisers not to engage in misleading or deceptive conduct. It is a general rule that applies to all advertising, political or not.</p>
<p>The Palmer ads do not violate any of these provisions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/news-corp-walks-a-delicate-line-on-covid-politics-165385">News Corp walks a delicate line on COVID politics</a>
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<p>So where does that leave media organisations that receive an approach from the likes of Palmer to publish advertisements the terms of which are not false, misleading or deceptive, but which are clearly designed to undermine public support for public health measures such as lockdowns?</p>
<p>It leaves them having to decide whether to exercise an ethical prerogative.</p>
<p>Short of a legal requirement to do so – say, in settlement of a law suit – no media organisation is obliged to publish an advertisement. It is in almost all cases an ethical decision.</p>
<p>Naturally, freedom of speech imposes a heavy ethical burden to publish, but it is not the only consideration. John Stuart Mill’s <a href="https://ethics.org.au/ethics-explainer-the-harm-principle/">harm principle</a> becomes relevant. That principle says the prevention of harm to others is a legitimate constraint on individual freedom.</p>
<p>Undermining public support for public health measures is obviously harmful and against the public interest. Media organisations are entitled to make decisions on ethical bases like this. An example from relatively ancient history will illustrate the point.</p>
<p>In the late 1970s, 4 Corners ran a program alleging that the Utah Development Corporation’s mining activities in Queensland were causing environmental damage. A few days after the program was broadcast, The Sydney Morning Herald received a full-page advertisement from Utah not only repudiating what 4 Corners had said but attacking the professional integrity of the journalists who made the program.</p>
<p>I was chief of staff of the Herald that day and the advertisement was referred to me, partly because it contained the seeds of what might have been a news story and partly because there were concerns it might be defamatory.</p>
<p>I referred it to the executive assistant to the editor, David Bowman, who refused to publish it.</p>
<p>He objected to it not only on legal grounds but on ethical grounds, because it impugned the integrity of the journalists in circumstances where they would have no opportunity to respond. In his view, this was unfair.</p>
<p>A short while later, the advertising people came back saying Utah had offered to indemnify the Herald against any legal damages or costs arising from publication of the advertisement.</p>
<p>Bowman held to his ethical objection and was supported by the general manager, R. P. Falkingham, who said: “You don’t publish something just because a man with a lot of money stands behind you.”</p>
<p>The advertisement did not run, not because of the legal risks but because it would have breached the ethical value of fairness.</p>
<p>Palmer’s ads – which say lockdowns are bad for mental health, bad for jobs and bad for the economy – contain truisms. There is nothing false or misleading about them. But they clearly seek to exploit public resentment about lockdowns for political gain.</p>
<p>The clear intention is to stir up opposition and make the public health orders harder to enforce.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/alarmist-reporting-on-covid-19-will-only-heighten-peoples-anxieties-and-drive-vaccine-hesitancy-161170">Alarmist reporting on COVID-19 will only heighten people's anxieties and drive vaccine hesitancy</a>
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<p>We live in an age where there are not only high levels of public anxiety, but also a great deal of confusion about who to believe on matters such as climate change and the pandemic. It is against the public interest to add gratuitously to that confusion, and harmful to the public welfare to undermine health orders.</p>
<p>These are grounds for rejecting his advertisements.</p>
<p>Nine Entertainment, which publishes The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Australian Financial Review, has rejected Palmer ads that contain misinformation about the pandemic, including about vaccines. Clearly such ads violate the rules against misleading and deceptive content.</p>
<p>But the ads opposing lockdowns on economic or health grounds were initially accepted by Nine, and are still running in News Corporation. </p>
<p>The question now is whether media organisations are willing to make decisions based on ethical considerations that are wider than the narrow standard of deception.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166099/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Palmer’s anti-lockdown ads were not breaching any laws, so the decision about whether to run them become a purely ethical one. In the end, Nine has made the right decision.Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1660882021-08-16T02:19:08Z2021-08-16T02:19:08ZWho’s Liberal? What’s Labor? New bill to give established parties control of their names is full of holes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416219/original/file-20210816-15-4re4zm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikicommons/Shutterstock/The Conversation</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Are the Liberals liberal? Does the Labor Party stand chiefly for those who labour? Electoral politics is nothing if not about wrapping ideas - about values and power - in words.</p>
<p>On Friday, the Morrison government introduced a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6755">Party Registration Integrity Bill</a> to the Commonwealth parliament. The bill would let established parties veto the use of words like “Liberal”, “Labor” or “Democrats” in the names of newer, rival parties. It will also make it harder to register - or keep registered - parties, by tripling the number of members required to 1,500, unless the party has an MP. </p>
<p>What is going on? Is this about democratic values, or is it a power play? </p>
<p>People may differ about the bill’s justification. But one thing is clear to a lawyer: as drafted, the bill is cooked. It overreaches and is not well drafted.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-robo-calls-to-spam-texts-annoying-campaign-tricks-that-are-legal-109943">From robo calls to spam texts: annoying campaign tricks that are legal</a>
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<p>To take an obvious example, the bill will let the Liberal Party control the word “Liberal”, if “contained” in the name of any other registered party. That includes the <a href="https://www.ldp.org.au/">Liberal Democratic Party</a> of ex-senator David Leyonhjelm and potential-senator Campbell Newman fame.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party is also upset by the emergence of the <a href="https://www.thenewliberals.net.au/">New Liberals</a>. But “Liberals” is not the same as “Liberal”. Indeed it’s a noun, not an adjective. So perhaps the bill won’t cure that upset.</p>
<p>Mere “function words”, like “the” or “of” don’t count. Nor is any “collective noun for people” protected. Think “party” or “Australians”. Linguists will be left to argue whether collective nouns like “Liberals” or “Greens” are off-limits. Can “<a href="https://aec.gov.au/Parties_and_Representatives/Party_Registration/applications/files/2021/registration-indigenous-aboriginal-party-of-australia-advertisement.pdf">Indigenous</a>” be bagsed? Your guess is as good as mine.</p>
<p>“Frivolous and vexatious” names will also be struck out. So no Australian version of the UK’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_Monster_Raving_Loony_Party">Monster Raving Loony Party</a>. Oh, the shame; if Brits can take a joke, why can’t we?</p>
<p>Australia’s most colourful political figure is currently seeking to <a href="https://aec.gov.au/Parties_and_Representatives/Party_Registration/applications/files/2021/clive-palmers-united-australia-party-advertisement.pdf">remove his own name</a> from his Clive Palmer United Australia Party. But if he doesn’t, he could forever veto anyone else called “Clive” or “Palmer” naming a party after themselves. Real names are not “function words”.</p>
<p>More seriously, handing one party squatter’s rights over everyday words is troublesome. It creates a virtual intellectual property right. That is fine for trademarking commercial goods; it’s another thing altogether in politics, where language is dynamic and fundamental. Worryingly, it gives leverage to established parties. They could ask a newer party for its support (with legislation or electorally) in return for permission to use the overlapping word in their name.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416240/original/file-20210816-17-123w332.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416240/original/file-20210816-17-123w332.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416240/original/file-20210816-17-123w332.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416240/original/file-20210816-17-123w332.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416240/original/file-20210816-17-123w332.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416240/original/file-20210816-17-123w332.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416240/original/file-20210816-17-123w332.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The government argues the bill is needed to minimise voter confusion. But there’s still plenty of confusion within the bill’s language.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span>
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<p>The government <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2Ff83fb22e-3b2c-4cf2-9b21-0fe97d5f77a7%2F0013%22">argues</a> the bill is needed to minimise confusion among electors. After all, compulsory and preferential voting means identifiable names on ballot papers are crucial, as most electors vote for parties, and some only decide their full preferences when mulling the ballot itself.</p>
<p>Why does party registration, and names, matter? Anyone can form a political group. But to have your group’s name on the ballot paper, and control public funding for garnering 4% of the vote, you need to <a href="https://aec.gov.au/Parties_and_Representatives/Party_Registration/">register as a “party”</a>. </p>
<p>Before registration systems arose in the 1980s, Australian politics was largely a battle between Labor and the Liberal-Country Party Coalition. Other forces came and went, often via splits in the major groupings. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Movement_(Australia)">Liberal Movement</a> was a progressive liberalist party in the 1970s, while the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2011-2012/DPLOverview">Democratic Labor Party</a> (DLP) had success as a socially conservative, but union-oriented, party in the 1950s-70s. Their names were natural enough.</p>
<p>Australian parties today are electoral machines more than social movements. Each, understandably, wants to guard its “brand”. Infamously, the Liberal Democratic Party won a Senate seat in 2013 when it <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-1m-mistake-senators-poll-windfall-20131001-2uqs6.html">lucked the first place</a> on a huge ballot paper while the Liberal Party was hidden in the middle.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-court-challenge-in-kooyong-and-chisholm-unlikely-to-win-but-may-still-land-a-blow-121300">High Court challenge in Kooyong and Chisholm unlikely to win, but may still land a blow</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>In response, laws were passed to allow visual cues on ballot papers, via <a href="https://www.tallyroom.com.au/27793">party logos</a>. And the independent Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) and courts can already rule whether a name can be confused with another party, or implies a false association.</p>
<p>In recent decades, registered parties have proliferated, partly due to opportunists wanting a ticket in the lottery of the final Senate seat up for grabs. That gambit has been significantly nullified by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-28/how-should-you-vote-in-the-senate/9388786">making voters choose</a> where their preferences go (if anywhere) in the Senate.</p>
<p>That leaves the long-term decline in voter base of both major parties as the chief driver of the creation of new parties. For national elections, there are <a href="https://aec.gov.au/Parties_and_Representatives/Party_Registration/Registered_parties/">46 registered parties</a>. In Queensland, without a state Senate, there are barely a dozen. Is too much potential choice a bad thing?</p>
<p>Forty-six is a lot, but some will die naturally. Others will be wiped away by the increased, 1,500-member rule. Which is fair enough, unless you are a regional party focused only on the Senate in a small state or territory. The 1,500-member rule also won’t deter parties formed by wealthy interests, if the party can afford a <a href="https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/join-united-australia-party/">zero-dollar membership “fee”</a>.</p>
<p>Ultimately, this bill is dubious not because of mathematics, but linguistics. It gives established parties control over language. Not even the Académie Française, much <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/06/france">lampooned</a> for its elite rulings over how French should be used, has that kind of power.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166088/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graeme Orr has received grant money from the Electoral Council of Australia and done pro bono and consultancy work with various political parties and movements. He is currently a paid consultant on the NSW Electoral Commission's statutory iVote Expert Panel.</span></em></p>The bill to give parties the right to veto newer parties using the same names is full of problems - and they are not mathematical, but linguistic.Graeme Orr, Professor of Law, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1658152021-08-10T20:13:09Z2021-08-10T20:13:09ZCasino operator Crown plays an old business trick: using workers as human shields<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415373/original/file-20210810-21-11f7sx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=387%2C91%2C1342%2C771&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Hunt/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Casino operator Crown Resorts must be desperate or think we’re dumb.</p>
<p>Last week, before the <a href="https://www.rccol.vic.gov.au/hearing-transcripts">royal commission</a> into its right to hold a casino licence in Victoria, Crown resorted to one of the oldest, most discredited, tricks in the book. It used its workers as shields.</p>
<p>“More than 20,000 people work across Crown’s resorts. Over 11,600 of those work in Melbourne. The vast majority of them were of course not complicit in the misconduct,” its lawyer Michael Borsky told the commission.</p>
<p>Revoking Crown’s licence would sentence Crown’s employees to “enormous disruption and possibly financial hardship” at a time when many were already “living through great uncertainty and hardship”.</p>
<p>And not only Crown’s employees. Among Crown’s shareholders were “tens of thousands of small shareholders and, indeed, superannuation funds”. </p>
<p>Removing Crown’s licence would not only endanger Crown’s workers, it would have “a significant impact on the Victorian tourism industry”.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415357/original/file-20210810-13-1st4svk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415357/original/file-20210810-13-1st4svk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415357/original/file-20210810-13-1st4svk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415357/original/file-20210810-13-1st4svk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415357/original/file-20210810-13-1st4svk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415357/original/file-20210810-13-1st4svk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415357/original/file-20210810-13-1st4svk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415357/original/file-20210810-13-1st4svk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Businessman Alan Bond used the same defence as Crown back in the 1980s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tony McDonough/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Crown provided 10% of Melbourne’s hotel rooms. Before COVID-19 hit, it contributed A$1.2 billion per year to Victoria’s economy.</p>
<p>It’s a logically flawed defence of the kind I first heard from Alan Bond’s Bond Corporation in the late 1980s, several years before he was imprisoned for fraud.</p>
<p>Trying to fend off an attempt to have his breweries placed in receivership, the company said Bond had 20,000 employees. They might not “have a job to go to on Tuesday”.</p>
<p>The logical flaw was the suggestion that if Bond didn’t own the breweries, the breweries wouldn’t exist.</p>
<p>The beers made by those breweries — Tooheys, Swan and XXXX — are still being made today. </p>
<p>Similarly, if Crown loses its casino licence, its 10% of Melbourne hotel rooms will still be there, most likely run by someone else. Its casino (or one like it) will also still be there, also run by someone else.</p>
<h2>Clive Palmer tried it as well</h2>
<p>The use of this flawed argument reached its peak early last decade during the battle over Labor’s proposed <a href="http://docshare04.docshare.tips/files/15261/152611398.pdf">resource super profits tax</a>. </p>
<p>Despite its name, the tax was designed as a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/has-the-government-blown-its-chance-to-explain-the-tax-20100524-w82u.html">profit-sharing arrangement</a>. The government would be on the hook for 40% of the cost of each project and would take 40% of the profit. </p>
<p>If a project was profitable for a mining company, then 60% of the project would also be profitable, meaning the tax ought to make no difference to its willingness to invest.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mineral-wealth-clive-palmer-and-the-corruption-of-australian-politics-117248">Mineral wealth, Clive Palmer, and the corruption of Australian politics</a>
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<p>Yet mining magnates such as Clive Palmer and Andrew Forrest threatened to abandon Australia and take their money elsewhere, to Africa or to China. </p>
<p>Their threats were no more a threat to Australian mining than Alan Bond’s was to Australian brewing. </p>
<p>If Forrest and Palmer had walked away (or even BHP and Rio Tinto, which talked along similar lines), someone else would have walked in.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415360/original/file-20210810-13-13xotla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415360/original/file-20210810-13-13xotla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415360/original/file-20210810-13-13xotla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415360/original/file-20210810-13-13xotla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415360/original/file-20210810-13-13xotla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=969&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415360/original/file-20210810-13-13xotla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415360/original/file-20210810-13-13xotla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415360/original/file-20210810-13-13xotla.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1218&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmer, who also threatened to take his business elsewhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The arrangement might not be to their liking, but it would be to the liking of someone else prepared to take the profit in their place.</p>
<p>Crown, as Royal Commissioner Ray Finkelstein pointed out on August 3, is profitable. Its casino operation is <a href="https://www.rccol.vic.gov.au/hearing-transcripts">very profitable</a>: “maybe on the decline a little bit, but very profitable”. </p>
<p>“The way industry works is somebody will always step in, so I don’t treat 12,000 employees [as] at risk. ” Finkelstein said. </p>
<p>“They might change their employer, but they are not at risk of losing their jobs. </p>
<p>Nor were suppliers or tourists at risk. </p>
<p>"When we have a profitable operating business, there will be an operator there out in the world, a suitable one.”</p>
<h2>A line that used to work — on television</h2>
<p>That Crown thought it could spin this line might have something to do with the experience of its largest shareholder, from whom Crown is now distancing itself. </p>
<p>James Packer used to own Channel Nine (as in an earlier era did Alan Bond).</p>
<p>For most of its life, Australia’s television owners have played chicken with the bodies meant to be policing them — the Australian Broadcasting Tribunal and then the Australian Communications and Media Authority. </p>
<p>Each body was given enormous power: the power to suspend or cancel a licence, but with a catch. It lacked lesser powers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-tv-networks-holding-back-the-future-155220">The TV networks holding back the future</a>
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<p>If it suspended or cancelled an operator’s licence, the station would go off the air (at least for a while). The authority would be deluged with complaints.</p>
<p>Packer, Bond and the other owners could use their viewers as human shields.</p>
<p>Time after time (11 times in five years) the authority found Nine had breached the industry code of practice. Time after time it failed to invoke the ultimate sanction. </p>
<p>In a 2005 report for the authority, <a href="https://law.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1709915/93-Reform_of_the_broadcasting_regulator_s_enforcement_powers11.pdf">Professor Ian Ramsay</a> said this meant that in effect it had “less enforcement powers” than other authorities.</p>
<h2>Crown’s workers don’t place it beyond the law</h2>
<p>Blessedly, in 2006 (as Packer was selling out of Nine) the government acted on Ramsay’s report. The authority can now issue <a href="https://www.unswlawjournal.unsw.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/30-1-8.pdf">fines</a> and seek enforceable undertakings, without fear of blow-back.</p>
<p>For Finkelstein to accept that if Crown’s licence was revoked its workers or the tourist industry would suffer would be to accept that, like the television industry was for many decades, Crown is beyond the practical reach of the law.</p>
<p>He is giving every indication he thinks no such thing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165815/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Threatening that if you lose your business your workers won’t have jobs has been tried in the past by figures such as Alan Bond and Clive Palmer.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1543642021-02-01T03:07:45Z2021-02-01T03:07:45ZMore than half of funding for the major parties remains secret — and this is how they want it<p>Political parties in Australia collectively received $168 million in donations for the financial year 2019-20. Today, Australians finally get to see where some of the money came from with the release of data from the <a href="https://transparency.aec.gov.au/Download">Australian Electoral Commission</a>. </p>
<p>While the big donors will make the headlines, they are only the tip of the iceberg. More than half of the funding for political parties remains hidden from public view. And that is exactly how the major parties want it. </p>
<h2>What does the data tell us?</h2>
<p>The Coalition and Labor received more in donations than all other parties combined. The Coalition received 41% of all funds (or A$69 million), while Labor received 33% ($55 million). The Greens came a distant third at 11% ($19 million), bumping Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party out of the position it held during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">2019 election</a>. </p>
<p>The largest 5% of donors accounted for half of declared donations. For the second year in a row, the largest individual declared donation was made by Palmer’s company Mineralogy, which gave $5.9 million to his own party. </p>
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<p>The Coalition’s largest donor, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/major-party-finances-dive-millions-during-covid/news-story/65afa0900e745066340a34a482135082">Richard Pratt’s Pratt Holdings</a>, donated $1.5 million. Other major donations to the Coalition included the <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/02/04/political-donors-unknown/">Greenfields Foundation</a> ($450,000), an investment company linked to the Liberal Party; and <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/sa-business-journal/enigmatic-chinese-businesswoman-sally-zou-has-registered-an-ethereal-new-company/news-story/62b376be3f531634e4e520db8435b528">Transcendent Australia</a> ($203,000), a company owned by Chinese businesswoman <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-12/businesswoman-sally-zou-places-ausgold-into-administration/11405672">Sally Zou</a>.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, many of Labor’s largest donors are unions, led by the <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/02/01/shoppies-united-voice-labors-reliable-funders/">“Shoppies” union</a> (the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association, or SDA), which donated almost $500,000. Labor also received large donations from fundraising vehicles associated with the party, including <a href="https://transparency.aec.gov.au/AnnualClientEntity/EntityDetail?clientFileId=1156">Labor Holdings Pty Ltd</a>, which donated $910,000.</p>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/eight-ways-to-clean-up-money-in-australian-politics-59453">Eight ways to clean up money in Australian politics</a>
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<p>Other large donors are bipartisan givers. The <a href="https://aha.org.au/">Australian Hotels Association</a> gave $154,000 to the Coalition and $271,000 to Labor. <a href="https://www.woodside.com.au/">Woodside Energy</a> gave $198,000 to the Coalition and $138,000 to Labor. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.macquarie.com/au/en/about.html">Macquarie Group</a> gave $139,000 to the Coalition and $113,000 to Labor, while <a href="https://macquarietelecomgroup.com/">Macquarie Telecom</a> gave $115,000 to the Coalition and $71,000 to Labor. And <a href="https://www.anz.com.au/about-us/esg/our-approach/public-policy-advocacy/">ANZ</a> continued its regular donations to both sides with $100,000 each.</p>
<p>Total donations were smaller than the previous year (an election year). But those who donate “off-cycle” can still have substantial influence, whether they are political devotees, or playing the “long game” of using donations to <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/whos-in-the-room/">open doors and wield political influence</a>.</p>
<h2>But a lot of the money remains hidden from public view</h2>
<p>Declared donations are only a fraction of the total money flowing to our political parties. </p>
<p>Out of $168 million in party funding, only $15 million of donations were declared (or just 9%). Another $59 million — around one-third — is public funding provided by electoral commissions. </p>
<p>The rest? A murky combination of undeclared donations and a messy bucket of funds called “other receipts”, which includes everything from investment income to money raised at political fundraising dinners. This chart shows the breakdown for the two major parties. </p>
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<p>More than half of the Coalition’s private funding is undisclosed, and 40% of Labor’s funds. This rises to about 90% across both parties when other receipts are included. </p>
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<h2>The major parties want it this way</h2>
<p>The Commonwealth donations disclosure regime is incredibly weak compared to almost all Australian states and most other advanced nations. Let’s be clear: this is a political choice backed in by the major parties. </p>
<p>In December, both major parties rejected a <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=s1244">bill</a> introduced by crossbench Senator Jacqui Lambie to improve transparency of political donations. It wasn’t revolutionary — the bill didn’t ban donors, or limit donations, or restrict what parties could do with donations. It simply proposed giving the public more and better information on the major donors, including: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>requiring donations over $5,000 to be declared by the parties (the current threshold is $14,300) </p></li>
<li><p>stopping “donations splitting”, in which a major donor can hide by splitting a big donation into a series of small ones</p></li>
<li><p>making income from political fundraising events declarable</p></li>
<li><p>publishing data about donations within weeks (rather than the current eight to 19 months). </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Yet, the bill was whitewashed. The committee <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Finance_and_Public_Administration/ElectrolDonation2020/Report">rejected it</a> on the basis that “there is already an effective regime in place”. </p>
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<h2>Our current system doesn’t have the balance right</h2>
<p>The Commonwealth donations disclosure regime is supposed to <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/parties_and_representatives/financial_disclosure/">provide transparency</a> and to “inform the public about the financial dealings of political parties, candidates and others involved in the electoral process”. But it clearly does not deliver on this in its current form.</p>
<p>There is a balance to be drawn between the interests of donors in protecting their privacy and the interests of the public in knowing who funds and influences political parties. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-full-ban-on-political-donations-would-level-the-playing-field-but-is-it-the-best-approach-81821">A full ban on political donations would level the playing field – but is it the best approach?</a>
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<p>But it is very hard to see how the current system – which keeps the majority of private money out of public view and unnecessarily delays the release of all donation data – has got the balance right. </p>
<p>A good disclosure system would close the loopholes that allow major donors to hide, while protecting the privacy of small donors.</p>
<p>Australians consistently say that they are suspicious that politicians are corrupt and that governments serve themselves and their mates rather than the public interest. Perhaps they’re right. Today’s donations release reminds us of the shortfalls of a system designed for donor and party interests over the public interest. </p>
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<p><em>Update: This article has been amended since publication to provide separate donation totals for Macquarie Group and Macquarie Telecom.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Danielle Wood and Tom Crowley do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A good political donation disclosure system would close the loopholes that allow major donors to hide, while protecting the privacy of small donors.Kate Griffiths, Fellow, Grattan InstituteDanielle Wood, Chief executive officer, Grattan InstituteTom Crowley, Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1531012021-01-14T19:11:09Z2021-01-14T19:11:09ZIs it curtains for Clive? What COVID means for populism in Australia <figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378695/original/file-20210113-13-jrpbjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>What can we make of Clive Palmer? </p>
<p>This week, he announced his United Australia Party (UAP) <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-10/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-not-contesting-wa-election/13046336">would not</a> contest the upcoming West Australian state election on March 13. </p>
<p>After a <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-peat-palaszczuk-why-queenslanders-swung-behind-labor-in-historic-election-149076">dismal showing</a> in the October 2019 Queensland poll, where does this leave his political prospects?</p>
<h2>Palmer is no mini-Trump</h2>
<p>Given Palmer’s love of <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-for-the-55-million-question-what-does-clive-palmer-actually-want-116350">publicity stunts and populist policies</a>, one might be tempted to see him as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/clive-palmer-has-a-trump-style-slogan-but-is-no-sure-bet-to-return-to-parliament-98544">miniature, Antipodean Donald Trump</a> — but that would be misleading. </p>
<p>Trump was able to garner <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/dec/08/us-election-results-2020-joe-biden-defeats-donald-trump-to-win-presidency">massive support</a> in segments of the American population, whereas Palmer’s UAP only managed 3.43% of <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm">first preference votes</a> in the lower house at the 2019 federal election. </p>
<p>American-style populism does not resonate with large numbers of Australians. Australian political traditions are quite different to those of America especially in terms of welfare and health provision. Those who seek to take the populist route find it a hard road. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trump supporters at Washington DC rally." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378699/original/file-20210113-19-190wse1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump won more than 70 million votes at the recent US presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Minchillo/AP/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In the 2019 election One Nation and United Australia combined only managed to win <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm">7.76% of the Senate vote</a>.</p>
<p>Given the small base on which the likes of Palmer and One Nation’s Pauline Hanson have to work, one wonders what they now hope to achieve. </p>
<h2>Australia’s populism culture</h2>
<p>The current situation with COVID-19 might provide a clue as to why they have failed to spark a populist surge in Australia. </p>
<p>Palmer’s major contribution to the COVID world was his <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-court-finds-border-closures-safest-way-to-protect-public-health-in-clive-palmer-case-145038">unsuccessful High Court challenge</a> to force Western Australia to open its borders.</p>
<p>The last 12 months has demonstrated the significance of “quarantine culture” in Australia, a term first coined by cultural historian <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/722661">John Williams</a> in the 1990s. </p>
<p>The natural instinct of Australians is to close borders against outside threats, be they national or state. The only partial exception to this rule at the moment is <a href="https://theconversation.com/vic-qld-and-nsw-are-managing-covid-outbreaks-in-their-own-ways-but-all-are-world-standard-152974">New South Wales</a> — the one part of Australia that had a vigorous free trade (or internationalist) political culture in the 19th century.</p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-border-challenge-why-states-not-courts-need-to-make-the-hard-calls-during-health-emergencies-143541">WA border challenge: why states, not courts, need to make the hard calls during health emergencies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In late 19th century and early 20th century Australia, writers such as WG Spence and magazines like The Bulletin talked about a desire to “protect” Australia against a harsh outside world and, if possible, limit the operation of international finance. The ideal was an Australia not dependent on the rest of the world.</p>
<p>In this regard, it is also worth recalling that one of the arguments often given for restricting Chinese immigration at the time was they were seen as <a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/49261/39/09chapter7.pdf">carrying diseases</a> into Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-clive-palmer-must-now-ask-himself-would-chinas-bastards-buy-a-mine-from-him-152966">What Clive Palmer must now ask himself: would China's 'bastards' buy a mine from him?</a>
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</em>
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<p>This was a form of populism — but one quite different to the American version. It sought to protect Australia and Australians from the outside world, not to assert their right to liberty.</p>
<p>The COVID pandemic seems to have reignited this desire to protect Australians from an outside threat. The most remarkable aspect of this development has been the way in which this desire for protection has devolved to the state level.</p>
<p>Moves to close borders and institute quite draconian measures to halt the spread of the virus have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-someone-say-election-how-politics-met-pandemic-to-create-fortress-queensland-144067">generally popular</a>. Australians, it would seem, are more interested in being protected than they are in asserting their rights to do as they please.</p>
<h2>What does this mean for Palmer?</h2>
<p>This makes life quite difficult for someone such as Palmer, who has pushed for freedoms and border openings. </p>
<p>No wonder he has decided not to contest the WA state election. He is not in tune with the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-21/wa-election-campaign-alp-focus-on-mark-mcgowan-popularity/12903860">popular mood</a>, which has strongly backed Labor Premier Mark McGowan’s hard border approach. It is not the time for libertarian populism.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Clive Palmer speaks to a near-empty press conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378700/original/file-20210114-20219-kxj3yq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Palmer has said Premier Mark McGowan can ‘breathe easy’ as UAP will not contest the March election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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<p>It is difficult to know how long this protectionist attitude will last. One suspects the <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-enters-2021-a-stronger-more-influential-power-and-australia-may-feel-the-squeeze-even-more-150943">current situation with China</a> has also fed into it. The mood is one of a threatening world.</p>
<h2>… and for Morrison?</h2>
<p>From here, two comments are worth making.</p>
<p>The first is political. Prime Minister Scott Morrison will need to cultivate this threatening mood if he is to succeed at the next federal election, which could be held as early as August. He will need to convince Australians he is the leader who will protect them most effectively. This means going slowly, slowly on things such as opening the international border.</p>
<p>The second is economic. Even in the 1890s, the Australian economy depended on international trade through the sale of wool. The idea Australia could operate independently of other countries was a fantasy. </p>
<p>The same is true today. The borders will need to re-open and <a href="https://theconversation.com/2021-is-the-year-australias-international-student-crisis-really-bites-153180">students</a> and tourists let in.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Prime Minister Scott Morrison" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/378704/original/file-20210114-24-1cvz092.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Scott Morrison could call a federal election as early as August.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Morrison will have to perform a juggling act. He must appear to be providing protection even as he appreciates protection can only go so far.</p>
<p>In the meantime, the prospects look grim for populists such as Palmer and Hanson. </p>
<p>The prime minister and his coalition have the opportunity to steal many of their supporters. The pandemic shows that to be successful in Australian politics, leaders needs to pose as the protector of the people, not promise more freedom and more openness. </p>
<p>I suspect Morrison understands this very well.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2021-is-the-year-australias-international-student-crisis-really-bites-153180">2021 is the year Australia's international student crisis really bites</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153101/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Melleuish receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the academic advisory board of the Menzies Research Centre.</span></em></p>Australia has its own populist tradition. Unlike the US, it is about protecting Australians from the outside world, not asserting their liberties.Gregory Melleuish, Professor, School of Humanities and Social Inquiry, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1529662021-01-11T19:08:51Z2021-01-11T19:08:51ZWhat Clive Palmer must now ask himself: would China’s ‘bastards’ buy a mine from him?<p>Colourful mining magnate Clive Palmer’s political ambitions appear to be in tatters. But what of his multibillion-dollar legal ambitions?</p>
<p>On Sunday he announced his United Australia Party will not contest Western Australia’s state election in March – a logical decision given his party attracted just <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results/party-totals">0.6% of the vote</a> in the November election in his home state of Queensland. </p>
<p>But he has not withdrawn his defamation case in the Federal Court of Australia against Western Australian premier Mark McGowan, over statements including comments about Palmer’s claim for up to A$30 billion in damages from the WA government over a stalled iron ore project.</p>
<p>The damages claim has to do with the WA government imposing conditions in 2012 on a proposal by Palmer’s company Minerology Pty Ltd to develop the <a href="https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/proposals/balmoral-south-iron-ore-project-cape-preston-wa">Balmoral South Iron Ore mine</a> in the Pilbara. Those conditions, Palmer’s lawyers have argued, meant Minerology was unable to develop the mine, and thus suffered financial loss due to then being unable to sell the project to Chinese interests.</p>
<p>In arbitration proceedings Palmer’s lawyers have won several points in their bid to have these conditions declared invalid. The WA government was sufficiently worried about its exposure to hastily pass, in August 2020, unprecedented “<a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Parliament/Bills.nsf/BillProgressPopup?openForm&ParentUNID=2F1CFD31ACD372EE482585C100337061">emergency legislation</a>” to prevent Palmer pursuing damages. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wa-government-legislated-itself-a-win-in-its-dispute-with-clive-palmer-and-put-itself-above-the-law-144360">The WA government legislated itself a win in its dispute with Clive Palmer — and put itself above the law</a>
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<p>Palmer has since applied to Australia’s High Court to have the WA legislation declared invalid. </p>
<p>But whether the High Court action goes ahead is not the bottom-line question. Even if it does hear his case, and declares the WA legislation invalid, it’s still far from certain Minerology could then go on to win damages.</p>
<h2>The ‘first tier’ hurdle: who would buy from him</h2>
<p>The legal precedent governing Palmer’s claim for damages are contained in a 1994 High Court decision in <a href="http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1994/4.html"><em>Sellars v Adelaide Petroleum</em></a>. This involved an appeal by Mark Sellars, a director of mining company Poseidon Ltd, and Poseidon itself, against a Federal Court decision that awarded damages to minerals exploration company Adelaide Petroleum due to losses suffered as a result of misleading statements by Poseidon and Sellars.</p>
<p>The High Court ruled against Sellars and Poseidon. The significant point in the decision was the principle the judges explained in making their ruling. A court must, with the advantage of hindsight, look at everything that took place and ask if it was more likely than not (in other words, if there was a 51% chance or more) that, even if wrongdoing occurred, it led to a lost commercial opportunity. </p>
<p>This is the “first tier” to be overcome to recover damages.</p>
<p>Applying the <em>Sellars v Adelaide Petroleum</em> principle to Palmer’s claim, the issue becomes whether, because of the WA governent’s conditions, Minerology more likely than not lost the opportunity to sell the mine to Chinese interests. More pointedly, was it more likely than not Chinese interests would have bought the mine from Palmer?</p>
<h2>Sour dealings with Chinese partners</h2>
<p>With the benefit of “hindsight”, any court would need to consider Palmer’s history with Chinese business partners.</p>
<p>One of those is his long and bitter legal feud with CITIC Pacific Mining, the powerful state-owned enterprise that operates the <a href="https://citicpacificmining.com/our-operation">Sino Iron project</a>, Australia’s largest magnetite iron ore mine, on Minerology-controlled tenements. </p>
<p>In 2014, Palmer accused CITIC of dudding him on royalty payments. CITIC, in turn, accused Palmer <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/business-spectator/news-story/clive-palmers-dangerous-chinese-misstep/223a955b7b00d8b26756e0262f9d70f8">of siphoning off funds</a> to pay for his election campaigns. (Palmer won the Queensland seat of Fairfax at the 2013 federal election, and two UAP candidates, Glenn Lazarus and Jacqui Lambie, won Senate seats.) </p>
<p>China’s leading business publication, <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/">Caixin</a>, quoted an unnamed CITIC executive as saying Palmer’s attempt “to swindle money from us” would “have grave consequences for foreign investors and in particular Chinese investors”. </p>
<p>The dispute led to several cases in WA’s Supreme Court. A 2017 ruling awarded Minerology A$200 million in back payments, as well as ongoing royalties then worth about A$400 million a year. (CITIC’s appeal <a href="https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/1m-pay-days-continue-for-clive-palmers-mineralogy-after-citic-fails-in-appeals-bid-against-sino-iron-royalty-payments-ng-b881206150z?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&tid=1558505403040">was rejected in 2019</a>). But in 2020 the court threw out Minerology’s case for about A$300 million more from CITIC as an “<a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/palmer-loses-us200m-court-case-wins-on-us400m-a-year-in-royalties-20200214-p540ux">abuse of process</a>”. </p>
<p>But just as damaging to Palmer’s dealings with the Chinese were his statements on national television in August 2014, in which he said the Chinese government wanted to “take over our ports and get our resources for free”, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/government-extending-olive-branch-to-china-after-palmer-tirade/5681118?nw=0">called Chinese officials</a> “bastards” and “mongrels”.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SUdeFXmtMIs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Clive Palmer calls the Chinese government bastards on ABC’s Q&A program.</span></figcaption>
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<p>So even if the High Court clears the way for Minerology to pursue its damages claim against the Western Australian government, there’s an argument to be made that Chinese interests would have been more likely than not to decline to do business with Palmer.</p>
<p>If so, Palmer would recover no damages.</p>
<h2>The ‘second tier’ hurdle: quantifying the loss</h2>
<p>There is also a second-tier hurdle to overcome if a court decides, for all the bad blood, that Chinese interests would have let bygones be bygones and be prepared to deal with Palmer.</p>
<p>In assessing the plaintiff’s actual loss, the court will need to consider every contingency that might affect that loss. It was held in <em>Sellars v Adelaide Petroleum</em> that to calculate the actual damage, what is called the “degree of possibilities” approach must be applied. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-clive-palmer-could-challenge-the-act-designed-to-stop-him-getting-30-billion-145098">How Clive Palmer could challenge the act designed to stop him getting $30 billion</a>
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<p>This approach means the court must look at the price of iron ore at the time the mine would have been ready for sale, what a potential buyer would be prepared to pay for the mine, and thus what loss has been incurred. This cannot be a precise exercise; the court just does its best.</p>
<p>But it’s the first hurdle that Palmer needs to get over first.</p>
<p>So even if he chances his arm in the High Court, and wins, he and his lawyers still have a legal mountain to climb. Establishing his actual entitlement to damages is likely to prove troublesome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152966/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kenneth Yin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Clive Palmer pursues his claim against the Western Australian government in the High Court, and wins, he’s still got a big legal hurdle to overcome.Kenneth Yin, Lecturer in law, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1496272020-11-06T05:44:52Z2020-11-06T05:44:52ZClive Palmer just lost his WA border challenge — but the legality of state closures is still uncertain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367893/original/file-20201106-21-a9fwdb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">original</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Mining magnate Clive Palmer has lost his <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-06/clive-palmer-loses-high-court-challenge-against-wa-border-close/12855286">challenge</a> to the closure of the Western Australian border in response to COVID-19. Palmer has also been ordered to pay costs. </p>
<p>While it is clear from the High Court’s order in Palmer v Western Australia that Palmer <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/06/clive-palmers-challenge-against-western-australias-border-ban-rejected-by-high-court">lost</a>, it remains unclear whether the border closure was and remains valid. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-border-challenge-why-states-not-courts-need-to-make-the-hard-calls-during-health-emergencies-143541">WA border challenge: why states, not courts, need to make the hard calls during health emergencies</a>
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<p>The reason for the lack of clarity is because the High Court has not yet handed down its reasons, which may take weeks or months. In the meantime, all we have is its <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCATrans//2020/180.html">orders</a> – and they are phrased in a rather peculiar and limited way. </p>
<h2>What did the court decide?</h2>
<p>The High Court was asked whether WA’s <a href="https://www.legislation.wa.gov.au/legislation/statutes.nsf/main_mrtitle_294_homepage.html">Emergency Management Act</a> or its <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/quarantine-closing-the-border-directions">Quarantine (Closing the Border) Directions</a> were invalid because they breached the Constitution by stopping people from crossing the state’s border. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s92.html">Section 92</a> of the Constitution says the movement of people among the states shall be “absolutely free”. But the High Court has previously accepted it can be limited if it is reasonably necessary to achieve another legitimate end, such as the protection of public health. </p>
<p>In the Palmer case, the High Court gave a very limited answer to the questions it was asked. In relation to the Emergency Management Act it said that “on their proper construction”, sections 56 and 67, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>in their application to an emergency constituted by the occurrence of a hazard in the nature of a plague or epidemic comply with the constitutional limitation of section 92 of the Constitution. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Both these sections are quite general in nature. <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/wa/consol_act/ema2005190/s56.html">Section 56</a> says the minister can declare a state of emergency in the whole of the state or a part of it. There is nothing on obvious that would appear to offend section 92 of the Constitution in each of its limbs. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/wa/consol_act/ema2005190/s67.html">Section 67</a> says during a state of emergency, certain officers may issue directions that prohibit the movement of persons within, into or out of an emergency area. On the face of it, it is not directed at the movement of people across state borders. However, if a state of emergency were issued for the entire state under section 56, then section 67 would potentially allow a direction to be made that would prevent people from entering or leaving WA. </p>
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<img alt="High Court of Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367892/original/file-20201106-23-yfj9tt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367892/original/file-20201106-23-yfj9tt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367892/original/file-20201106-23-yfj9tt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367892/original/file-20201106-23-yfj9tt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367892/original/file-20201106-23-yfj9tt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367892/original/file-20201106-23-yfj9tt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367892/original/file-20201106-23-yfj9tt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmer launched his challenge after WA closed its border in April.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
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<p>The High Court’s qualification in the phrase “on their proper construction” is therefore important. This raises the question of how the High Court has interpreted section 67 and whether it has restricted its interpretation in a manner that accommodates section 92 of the Constitution. We will have to wait for the High Court’s reasons to learn this. </p>
<p>The court’s order in relation to the Quarantine Directions is more unusual. It says the exercise of this power under clauses 4 and 5 of the directions “does not raise a constitutional question”. This refers to an issue raised during the hearing. The argument, initially raised by Victoria, was that the validity of a direction made under a power conferred by an act will depend on whether the direction falls within the scope of that power in the act. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/states-are-shutting-their-borders-to-stop-coronavirus-is-that-actually-allowed-134354">States are shutting their borders to stop coronavirus. Is that actually allowed?</a>
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<p>If the section in the act that confers the power (in this case, section 67 of the Emergency Management Act) is constitutionally valid, then any direction that falls within that power will be valid too. </p>
<p>The real question, then, is whether the direction falls within the scope of the legislative power. This is not a constitutional question, but a question of administrative law. The High Court then said in its order that it had not been asked this question, so it did not need to answer it. </p>
<p>On the basis of this technicality, the High Court (or at least a majority of the Justices) concluded it was not necessary to address whether the actual directions that stop people going in or out of Western Australia were valid.</p>
<h2>Does this mean more litigation?</h2>
<p>As this case does not seem to have resolved whether or not the directions are valid, will there be more litigation? It is possible someone could challenge the directions, arguing this time that they do not fall within the scope of the authorising section in the legislation. </p>
<p>But such litigation would have to start from square one and so would take some time to determine. As it would not be a constitutional matter, it might have to be decided by a lower court first. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="WA Premier Mark McGowan" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367894/original/file-20201106-23-578v3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367894/original/file-20201106-23-578v3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367894/original/file-20201106-23-578v3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367894/original/file-20201106-23-578v3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367894/original/file-20201106-23-578v3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367894/original/file-20201106-23-578v3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367894/original/file-20201106-23-578v3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">WA Premier Mark McGowan celebrated the High Court result on Friday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Further, before initiating any such litigation, it would be important to read the High Court’s reasons, which may not be produced for some time. Those reasons will tell us about the scope of the legislative provision, which will be essential to know before any challenge to the directions made under it could proceed.</p>
<p>Hopefully, by the time we get to that point, there will be no need for such litigation because no such directions will exist, if the pandemic continues to ease in Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-clive-palmer-could-challenge-the-act-designed-to-stop-him-getting-30-billion-145098">How Clive Palmer could challenge the act designed to stop him getting $30 billion</a>
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<p>But it does mean we may be left with inadequate guidance about such matters for the future, which would be unfortunate given the cost and time taken with this litigation. Perhaps the court’s reasoning about the interpretation of section 67 of the Emergency Management Act will give us sufficient understanding about the operation of section 92 of the Constitution and the tests applicable to border closures in a pandemic. But that remains to be seen.</p>
<h2>Victorian lockdown challenge also rejected</h2>
<p>In a busy day for the High Court on Friday, it also threw out hotelier Julian Gerner’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-06/high-court-challenge-to-victorias-covid-19-lockdown-dismissed/12856416">challenge</a> to Melbourne’s lockdown laws.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-a-high-court-challenge-of-melbournes-lockdown-succeed-heres-what-the-constitution-says-147904">Can a High Court challenge of Melbourne's lockdown succeed? Here's what the Constitution says</a>
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<p>Gerner’s challenge, to be successful, would have required the High Court to find an implied freedom of movement in the Constitution. </p>
<p>This would have opened up all sorts of other laws to challenge and been condemned by conservatives as judicial activism. The court was so unimpressed by the argument that it unanimously rejected it on the spot, without even needing to hear Victoria’s response. </p>
<p>The end of the case was swift and brutal. It is unlikely this point will be raised again before the court.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149627/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Twomey has received funding from the Australian Research Council and sometimes does consultancy work for governments and inter-governmental bodies.</span></em></p>Palmer has lost his challenge to the closure of the Western Australian border in response to COVID-19. But it still remains unclear whether the border closure was and remains valid.Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1488032020-10-30T03:53:39Z2020-10-30T03:53:39ZHow political parties legally harvest your data and use it to bombard you with election spam<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366608/original/file-20201030-22-1btz8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C0%2C5184%2C3329&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Robin Worrall/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Monday October 26, five days ahead of Queensland’s election, many voters received an unsolicited text message from Clive Palmer’s mining company Mineralogy, accusing Labor of planning to introduce a “death tax” and providing a link to an online how-to-vote card for Palmer’s United Australia Party. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366000/original/file-20201028-13-1a7cwpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Screenshot of campaign text message" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366000/original/file-20201028-13-1a7cwpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366000/original/file-20201028-13-1a7cwpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366000/original/file-20201028-13-1a7cwpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366000/original/file-20201028-13-1a7cwpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366000/original/file-20201028-13-1a7cwpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366000/original/file-20201028-13-1a7cwpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366000/original/file-20201028-13-1a7cwpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screenshot of a text message sent by Clive Palmer’s Mineralogy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Many recipients angrily wondered <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/politics/clive-palmer-texts-infuriating-aussies-ahead-of-queensland-election/news-story/53bd8de20c2e50cfed2cfaf028fd89a5">how Palmer’s firm had got hold of their contact details</a>, and why they were receiving information that had already been thoroughly debunked.</p>
<p>It’s not clear how many voters received the message, although Deputy Premier Steven Miles accused Palmer of sending it to “hundreds of thousands of Queenslanders”. The message was also sent to many permanent and interstate residents not eligible to vote in the election. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366602/original/file-20201030-15-1yd0j59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Screenshot of election text message." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366602/original/file-20201030-15-1yd0j59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366602/original/file-20201030-15-1yd0j59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1233&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366602/original/file-20201030-15-1yd0j59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366602/original/file-20201030-15-1yd0j59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1233&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366602/original/file-20201030-15-1yd0j59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366602/original/file-20201030-15-1yd0j59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366602/original/file-20201030-15-1yd0j59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not all of the recipients of this message were in the relevant electorate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>But the issue goes deeper than Palmer’s dubious tactics, although his message was a particularly egregious example. This and similar messages have been sent to voters outside the relevant electorate. For example, one message from an independent candidate for the electorate of Macalister was received by a resident of Stafford.</p>
<p>In fact, there’s no law to prevent registered political parties — and the contractors and volunteers who work on their behalf — collecting your contact details and bombarding you with messages, regardless of whether you consented or not.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-robo-calls-to-spam-texts-annoying-campaign-tricks-that-are-legal-109943">problem of spam text messages was also prevalent</a> during the 2019 federal election, when the tactics of Palmer’s United Australia Party in particular were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-17/clive-palmers-party-uses-unsolicited-political-text-mesage/10720948">called into question</a>, prompting the party to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-11/clive-palmer-united-australia-party-unsolicited-text-messages/10709106">pledge to stop the practice</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-robo-calls-to-spam-texts-annoying-campaign-tricks-that-are-legal-109943">From robo calls to spam texts: annoying campaign tricks that are legal</a>
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<hr>
<p>Political candidates, including independents and members of registered political parties, can request access to the Australian Electoral Commission’s database of voters’ contact details, to use in their campaign messaging. And it doesn’t stop there: they can also buy access to voters’ data from “information aggregator” companies such as <a href="https://www.sensisdata.com.au/swing">Sensis</a>, including voters’ names, home addresses, phone numbers and e-mail addresses. </p>
<p>Information aggregators also collect and analyse your publicly available data. Your Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Tiktok or Instagram posts can easily be <a href="https://www.techopedia.com/definition/5212/web-scraping">scraped</a>. If your phone number or email address appears publicly, such as on an advert for a community event or public comment on a town planning submission, it can be collected. Few people realise how large their digital footprint really is.</p>
<p>This can reveal not only your contact details but also your political views. Publicly share a post about environmental concerns or social justice issues and you may have just pigeonholed yourself as a left-leaning voter, potentially putting you in line for targeted campaign messages.</p>
<p>Australia has laws against unsolicited spam, so how do political parties get away with this? Because they are entirely exempt from anti-spam legislation.</p>
<h2>How politicians dodge spam laws</h2>
<p>Private businesses have to abide by strict federal laws about data privacy and spam. The <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Series/C2004A03712">Privacy Act 1998</a> and the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2016C00614">Spam Act 2003</a> were enacted to protect the public from unwanted and harmful information sharing.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/your-privacy-rights/">Privacy act</a> regulates who may have access to your personal information, how it must be stored and what must happen should that data be compromised. For example, if your data is hacked you must be notified.</p>
<p>As summarised by the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), <a href="https://www.acma.gov.au/what-spam">Spam</a> is unwanted marketing messages sent via email, text or instant messaging containing offers, advertisements or promotions. Permission to contact you by these means can be part of the terms and conditions of sale or use of a product, through a specific check box or if you make your e-mail or phone number public. Specific exemptions are made in the Spam Act for registered charities, government organisations, educational institutions and registered political parties. </p>
<p>Of course, in an open democracy it makes sense to allow elected officials to communicate directly with the voting public, particularly at election time. But aside from the nuisance and (legal) invasion of privacy, there are two main problems with the current free-for-all. </p>
<h2>Problem 1: data security</h2>
<p>If a data breach occurs for a non-exempt organisation, such as a <a href="https://www.afr.com/technology/banks-told-to-tighten-security-after-payments-data-breach-20190825-p52kio">bank</a> or <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/data-of-186-000-customers-leaked-in-service-nsw-cyber-attack-20200907-p55t7g.html">government organisation</a>, any person who could be harmed from having information shared must be <a href="https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/data-breaches/what-is-a-notifiable-data-breach/">notified</a>. The types of harm include the potential for identity theft and fraud.</p>
<p>But political parties, being exempt from privacy laws, are also <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-parties-should-be-stripped-of-privacy-act-exemptions-after-hack-experts-20190218-p50ymh.html">exempt from this responsibility</a>. This means if a <a href="https://www.itnews.com.au/news/political-party-networks-caught-up-in-parliaments-it-breach-519467">political party has a data breach</a> and shares your contact details, it doesn’t have to tell you.</p>
<p>Political parties <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-17/what-political-parties-know-about-voters-through-data-collection/7510438">reportedly maintain detailed databases</a> of their constituents. These databases contain not just personal information held by the electoral commission, but any interactions with elected members, including complaints and contacts with electorate offices. </p>
<h2>Problem 2: misinformation</h2>
<p>Palmer’s text messages were a blanket salvo rather than tailored to particular voters. Hundreds of voters, and many non-voters, received the same message, despite repeated explicit denials from Labor it’s considering introducing a “death tax”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1320533760123703296"}"></div></p>
<p>In Australia, with an arguably free press and available <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld-election-2020/">fact-checking</a>, the public can seek balanced, factual information if they are motivated to do so. But in the internet age, many people are vulnerable to “<a href="https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/fake-news">fake news</a>”, whether through naivete or because of “confirmation bias” — the increased likelihood of believing information that fits with their pre-existing worldview. </p>
<h2>What can you do about it?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366604/original/file-20201030-24-j8u1bv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Screenshot of election campaign message" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366604/original/file-20201030-24-j8u1bv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366604/original/file-20201030-24-j8u1bv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1233&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366604/original/file-20201030-24-j8u1bv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366604/original/file-20201030-24-j8u1bv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1233&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366604/original/file-20201030-24-j8u1bv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366604/original/file-20201030-24-j8u1bv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366604/original/file-20201030-24-j8u1bv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clive Palmer’s follow-up message sent on October 29.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Until the law changes, there are limited ways to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-11/federal-election-2019-unsolicited-political-texts/11100398">combat political text and email intrusion</a>. The first is judicious use of the block and delete buttons and e-mail spam filters. While not foolproof, this does reduce the potential for receiving messages again from that same number or email. However, this tactic would not have helped avoid a second round of messages sent by Palmer on October 29 from a different number.</p>
<p>The second way to combat these messages is to prevent your data and opinions from reaching political databases. In Australia, there is currently no reliable service to help remove your data from the public view, so the best option is to keep it from getting out in the first place. </p>
<p>To do this, you must always read the terms and conditions before giving away personal data. If you have time, audit your entire public online presence to find all the places on the internet that store your personal data, including on all social media platforms and on personal, professional or community web pages. You must always remain vigilant about protecting your information, which is no simple task.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148803/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erica Mealy has previously received funding from the Sunshine Coast Council and Advance Queensland though SCRIPT (Sunshine Coast Regional Innovation Program). Erica is a member of the Australian Computer Society and Women in Technology industry associations.</span></em></p>As Queensland heads to to the polls, hundreds of voters have received unsolicited text messages from Clive Palmer urging them to vote against Labor. And that’s just the tip of the electioneering iceberg.Erica Mealy, Lecturer in Computer Science, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469262020-10-08T19:08:19Z2020-10-08T19:08:19ZRemember Quexit? 5 reasons you should not take your eyes off the Queensland election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362104/original/file-20201007-22-1uk52ux.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=395%2C0%2C3425%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland is stereotyped for its sunshine, beaches, lack of daylight saving, Bundy rum, <a href="https://theconversation.com/meter-maids-promotional-models-and-our-disturbingly-hypersexual-cities-56438">meter maids</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-29/meet-pauline-hansons-queensland-supporters/8220198">One Nation supporters</a>.</p>
<p>Many Australians have an ambivalent relationship with the state and don’t take <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-48306122">its politics</a> that seriously. </p>
<p>But after Queensland “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/18/australian-election-queensland-labor-hopes">lost</a>” the federal election for Labor last year, there are good reasons to care about the state election on October 31. </p>
<p>With the campaign <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-06/queensland-election-campaign-palaszczuk-quoting-newman/12735628">now officially underway</a>, this isn’t just another state poll, either. We outline five reasons why voters — and those beyond Queensland — should be paying close attention.</p>
<h2>1. Quexit was misguided</h2>
<p>Despite widespread predictions the Labor Party would win the May 2019 federal election, the Coalition had a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-18/federal-election-result-2019-antony-green-calls-shock-victory/11126536">miracle</a>” victory, thanks – in part – to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-how-labor-lost-queensland/11122998">Queensland</a>. </p>
<p>“How good’s Queensland?” Prime Minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/quexit-some-australians-want-to-ditch-queensland-after-election-result">exclaimed on election night</a>, with Liberal supporters chanting, “Queensland, Queensland” in reply. </p>
<p>But on social media, those disappointed with the election result wanted to <a href="https://junkee.com/blaming-queensland-election-australia/206236">cut Queensland loose</a> from the rest of the country. A “Quexit” hashtag started to trend. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1129932497528037377"}"></div></p>
<p>The whole episode proved we need <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">a better understanding</a> of the needs and interests of all Australians. </p>
<p>Without checking Queensland’s temperature, we miss vital information that has a bearing on the whole country. For those watching along at home: you need to win Queensland to win federally. </p>
<h2>2. There is more than one Queensland</h2>
<p>To understand Queensland, we need to understand its diversity. This is the only state to have the majority of residents in rural or regional areas. So, it is not just about what happens in Brisbane. </p>
<p>As one example, Queensland’s largest electorate, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/greg/">Gregory</a>, covers about 460,000 square kilometres. So even within regional areas, the interests and issues are different. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YAuHseoiclI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Griffith University experts on the seats to watch in the 2020 Queensland election.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Queensland is also a state that experiences frequent <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-floods-are-so-huge-the-only-way-to-track-them-is-from-space-111083">natural disasters</a>. This, coupled with economic reliance on beef, gold, sugar, coal and gas industries, can place disparate Queensland communities <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/wide-bay-unemployment-rises-as-coronavirus-takes-effect/12180646">on the edge</a>. </p>
<p>In the 2020 election, the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAuHseoiclI&feature=youtu.be">top seats to watch</a> are around <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-04/qld-state-election-2020-townsville-seats-to-play-key-role/12721600">Townsville</a>, <a href="https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/regional/rockhampton-candidates-lock-horns-in-online-debate-tonight/news-story/a4985fac951b9f97a7e24901bd1bd341">Rockhampton</a> and the coast, with an eye on some inner-city Brisbane electorates and wild card seats, given the recent resignation of <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/three-ministers-quit-on-the-eve-of-the-state-election-what-does-it-mean-20200910-p55udk.html">three Labor ministers</a>. </p>
<h2>3. Pandemic politics</h2>
<p>While the Northern Territory went to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-election-is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-the-answer-to-a-struggling-economy-144274">polls in late August</a> and the ACT will vote on October 17, Queensland’s will be the most significant election in Australia since the start of COVID-19. </p>
<p>This will give us several clues about the impact coronavirus will have on campaigns and voting, which could affect future elections in Australia. </p>
<p>We are expecting postal votes will be significant in the October 31 decision, with an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-29/queensland-state-election-ecq-postal-vote-surge-explainer/12707198">estimated 600,000</a> Queenslanders predicted to vote this way. Many people are also expected to pre-poll to avoid the crowds. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hand holding a sausage, sauce and bread." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362074/original/file-20201007-20-9jebzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">COVID-19 has led to concerns about election day sausage sizzles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Julian Smith/AAP</span></span>
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<p>This has significant ramifications on the campaign itself. When will political parties release their major policies, if huge chunks of the population have already voted well before polling day? With so many postal votes, will we have a result on election night? </p>
<p>We are also set to see a drop in door-knock campaigning, less reliance on paper how-to-vote cards and question marks over the election day <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/whether-queensland-democracy-sausages-sizzle-or-fizzle-depends-on-top-doc-20200715-p55ccy.html">democracy sausage</a>. What will this do to people’s engagement with the voting process? </p>
<p>The COVID crisis also means attention is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-15/coronavirus-queensland-annastacia-palaszczuk-election/12661670">essentially focused</a> on Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and her challenger, LNP leader Deb Frecklington. This will increase the “presidential” nature of the contest, exacerbating an <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-s-presidential-politics">increasing trend</a> in Australian elections. </p>
<p>It is also worth noting, this is the first contest between two female leaders at a state or federal election in Australian history.</p>
<h2>4. What are the minor parties up to?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://medium.com/the-machinery-of-government/interesting-inconsistent-and-unpredictable-ca8dddfd91f0">preferences</a> of three minor parties — Katter’s Australian Party, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and <a href="https://www.northqueenslandregister.com.au/story/6369299/politicians-jostling-for-nq-first/">North Queensland First</a> — are set to play an important role in battleground North Queensland seats.</p>
<p>With predictions of a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSCQ/videos/is-queensland-heading-for-a-hung-parliament/543503812985764/">hung parliament</a> and the importance of <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/preference-flows-out-the-window-as-minor-party-posturing-begins-20200924-p55yu6.html">preference flows</a>, we should be keeping a close eye on their campaigns. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-unpredictable-election-begins-expect-a-close-campaign-focused-on-3-questions-146927">Queensland's unpredictable election begins. Expect a close campaign focused on 3 questions</a>
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<p>The role of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party looks less certain. </p>
<p>Palmer’s Mineralogy company <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">donated almost $84 million</a> to the United Australia Party campaign in the last federal election. This was the biggest individual spending spree in Australian political history, resulting in a very visible campaign, without winning any seats. </p>
<p>However, Palmer still had an impact, with his <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/02/08/inside-palmers-campaign-thwart-labor/15810804009361">anti-Labor campaigning</a> perhaps partly responsible for swinging votes away from the ALP. </p>
<p>In this year’s state election, Palmer will be restricted by new <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-18/political-donations-capped-queensland-lnp-labor-laws-elections/12368128">electoral spending caps</a>. But it’s the pattern of spending that is really interesting. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="United Australia Party leader Clive Palmer." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362075/original/file-20201007-20-y97w8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmer’s election spending will be capped this time around.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/ AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout the Queensland middle — the dry belts of land west of the Great Dividing range out to the fringes of the Channel Country — populist campaign messages dominate via bright <a href="https://9now.nine.com.au/today/qld-olympics-why-pauline-hanson-has-branded-bid-irresponsible/0f749cff-516c-45a1-9ad8-e863b7248ba0">billboards</a>. </p>
<p>Their message may be simple — like the “Simon says” equivalent “<a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/queensland-election-clive-palmer-effects-a-1m-boost-to-war-chest/news-story/65e10bc831cf9f19c20a62533bcb03a4">Clive says… give Labor THE BOOT</a>” — but they are also targeted. In many cases, they are the only messaging (and real political attention) these regions receive. </p>
<h2>5. Tough questions that go beyond Queensland</h2>
<p>Queensland is dealing with its fair share of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-08/queensland-analysis-lnp-pledges-youth-crime-crackdown/12429720">local issues</a>. But it is also grappling with policy questions that resonate around the country. </p>
<p>These include how to recover from the <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/queensland-debt-expected-to-soar-as-state-spends-its-way-out-of-recession-20200904-p55sfu.html">COVID recession</a> and how to capture young voters who have been <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-young-australians-hit-hard-during-covid-19">hit hard</a> by the economic downturn. </p>
<p>Queensland also needs to transform its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/qld-coronavirus-tourism-boom-holiday-destinations-long-weekend/12558046">tourism industry</a> in the face of both public health and environmental challenges. </p>
<p>And it needs to tackle climate change and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-19/qld-could-generate-more-renewable-energy-than-coal-and-gas/12570598">transform</a> “fossil” industries into new opportunities for employees and businesses.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/matt-canavan-says-australia-doesnt-subsidise-the-fossil-fuel-industry-an-expert-says-it-does-131200">Matt Canavan says Australia doesn't subsidise the fossil fuel industry, an expert says it does</a>
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<p>Meanwhile, Southeast Queensland has its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-22/australia-olympics-boss-says-gold-coast-key-to-queensland-bid/12169718">2032 Olympic bid</a> bubbling away in the background. </p>
<p>Queensland issues are Australian issues — and a harbinger of what’s to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146926/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Harris Rimmer receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with IWDA as a National Board member and is a Research Associate at Chatham House UK. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elise Stephenson is affiliated with the Queensland State Government LGBTI Roundtable.</span></em></p>There’s a lot more to Queensland than jokes about Meter Maids and faded curtains. The October 31 election will have a bearing on the whole country.Susan Harris Rimmer, Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityElise Stephenson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469272020-10-04T18:55:31Z2020-10-04T18:55:31ZQueensland’s unpredictable election begins. Expect a close campaign focused on 3 questions<p>The Queensland election campaign officially begins this week, with the government entering <a href="https://www.forgov.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/procurement/pan-22-caretaker-conventions.pdf?v=1599437891">caretaker mode</a> on Tuesday, and the election set for <a href="https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/election-events/2020-state-general-election">October 31</a>. </p>
<p>But the crystal ball for this election, which will see a number of significant firsts, is frustratingly cloudy. </p>
<h2>Palaszczuk vs Frecklington</h2>
<p>This is the state’s first election for a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-05/four-year-fixed-parliamentary-term-referendum-declared-yes-ecq/7299386">four-year fixed term</a> of parliament since 1893. It’s also the first occasion at which the leaders of the two major parties — Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk and the Liberal-National Party’s (LNP) Deb Frecklington — are women.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People voting at polling booths in school hall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queenslanders will be voting in a government for four years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Albert Perez/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, apart from August’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-election-is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-the-answer-to-a-struggling-economy-144274">Northern Territory election</a>, Queensland’s poll will be the first major electoral test of any Australian jurisdiction since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>All of this makes the election extremely difficult to forecast, especially given the <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/yougov-poll-queensland-labor-governments-vote-shrivels/news-story/04e693d3de28af07ec51dad6d4b58728">marked difference</a> in how voters rate the parties, as opposed to their leaders. </p>
<p>That’s before you throw in the pull of four significant minor parties and their unpredictable preference flows.</p>
<h2>A change of government is possible</h2>
<p>Even so, we might say Labor is Queensland’s “natural” party of government, given it has held office for 26 of the past 31 years, and for 70 of the past 105 years (since the birth of the modern party system).</p>
<p>This stands in sharp contrast to Queenslanders’ predilection to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-how-labor-lost-queensland/11122998">back conservative parties </a> at federal elections. In 2019, for example, the state <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-QLD.htm">swung toward</a> the Morrison-led Coalition at a rate about four times the Australian average.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">Queensland to all those #Quexiteers: don't judge, try to understand us</a>
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<p>Heading into the election, Labor holds a razor-thin buffer, with just 48 seats in the 93-seat parliament. A tiny after-preference <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/pendulum#Labor">swing of 0.7%</a> would see Labor lose two seats and its majority. </p>
<p>The LNP, currently on 38 seats, must win nine additional seats, via a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/pendulum#Liberal%20National">3.4% swing</a> to form majority government. </p>
<p>Ironically, that’s virtually identical to the <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/northern-territory-election-analysis-of-results/">3.5% swing</a> against the NT Labor government last month.</p>
<p>In June, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-latest-labor-trails-federally-and-in-queensland-biden-increases-lead-over-trump-140247">YouGov</a> poll had the LNP in front of Labor, 52% to 48%, two-party preferred. In July, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">Newspoll</a> had the LNP ahead, 51% to 49%. </p>
<p>The implications are clear: victory for the LNP is eminently possible. </p>
<h2>A hung parliament is also on the cards</h2>
<p>With polls putting Labor’s primary vote <a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-latest-labor-trails-federally-and-in-queensland-biden-increases-lead-over-trump-140247">as low as 32%</a>, preferences will be crucial and minor parties will once again play a significant role. </p>
<p>Because of recently introduced <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-18/political-donations-capped-queensland-lnp-labor-laws-elections/12368128">election spending caps</a>, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is expected to walk away empty-handed. This comes after Palmer donated <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">almost $84 million</a> to his own campaign during the 2019 federal election. </p>
<p>But with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation likely to maintain its lone seat, Katter’s Australian Party its three, and the Greens almost certain to double their representation to two, a hung parliament – a repeat of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-for-queensland-expect-more-nuance-than-chaos-37038">2015-17 term</a> – is also a real possibility.</p>
<h2>Referendum on three questions</h2>
<p>For these reasons and more, the political eyes of Australia will be on Queensland on October 31. And it will invariably be a referendum on three questions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annastacia Palaszczuk has been premier since 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The first is whom Queenslanders trust more as their premier for the next four years. </p>
<p>In late July, <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-maintains-newspoll-lead-federally-and-in-queensland-bidens-lead-over-trump-narrows-144193">Newspoll found</a> 81% of those surveyed approved of Palaszczuk’s handling of the pandemic, with 57% preferring her as premier. Just 26% preferred Frecklington. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland opposition leader Deb Frecklington." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deb Frecklington took over as opposition leader in December 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But a late September, Newspoll saw a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/twothirds-of-queenslanders-back-annastacia-palaszczuk-as-state-election-looms/news-story/46b9fb24eb42bf41a50719db7f132094">marked dip</a> in Palaszczuk’s ratings, with 69% of respondents saying the premier was performing well over coronavirus. </p>
<h2>Health vs economy</h2>
<p>A second question is which public policy frame — public health or economic buoyancy — do Queenslanders rate more highly? This comes down to simple arithmetic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-someone-say-election-how-politics-met-pandemic-to-create-fortress-queensland-144067">Did someone say 'election'?: how politics met pandemic to create 'fortress Queensland'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If those angry at <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/05/queensland-to-enforce-hard-border-closure-with-nsw-and-act-from-saturday">hard border closures</a> and damaged hospitality, <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/tourism-industry-warns-second-queensland-lockdown-would-break-our-spirit-20200727-p55fsu.html">tourism</a> and other small businesses outweigh those grateful for a government that has overseen just <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/statistics">1,160 coronavirus cases</a> and six deaths, then Palaszczuk has a problem. </p>
<p>But with border and pub relaxations <a href="https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/qld-announces-immediate-easing-of-restrictions-as-road-map-to-normal-is-released/news-story/34a2f6de1243a54cfc3b7d1abaf7db98">introduced last week</a>, even that anger might be quelled by election day. </p>
<h2>COVID recovery</h2>
<p>If not, these concerns would be compounded by a third question: which party do Queenslanders trust more to navigate the state out of the COVID-19 economic quagmire? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hand sanitisers on a table at a polling booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queensland will be voting in the middle of a pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Albert Perez/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Labor has reason to feel secure here, despite state debt <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-07/queensland-treasurer-delivers-fiscal-budget-outlook-coronavirus/12628358">nearing $100 billion</a> and an <a href="https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP%2FLFR_SAFOUR%2FLFR_UnemploymentRate">unemployment rate</a> above the national average. In June, a YouGov poll found Labor enjoyed an <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/06/06/yougov-galaxy-52-48-lnp-queensland/">11 point lead</a> on the question of preferred economic managers. That figure alone has panicked LNP strategists. </p>
<p>But since then, the LNP has come out with economic guns blazing. It has re-embraced the <a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/new-bradfield-scheme-will-supercharge-the-north/">1930s Bradfield Scheme</a> — a largely debunked populist dream to divert northern rivers westward. More pragmatically, the LNP also launched a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-27/lnp-promises-33-billion-spend-on-15-year-bruce-highway-plan/12708342">$33 billion plan</a> to upgrade the entire Bruce Highway from Gympie to Cairns. </p>
<p>Given more than half the state’s seats are outside Greater Brisbane, this policy pays the sort of regional homage that wins elections in Queensland. </p>
<h2>The Prime Minister will be watching</h2>
<p>Beyond Queensland, who will be watching the Queensland poll most closely? </p>
<p>Morrison found his <a href="https://news.griffith.edu.au/2020/07/07/how-qld-delivered-scott-morrisons-miracle-election/">way back to government</a> last year via regional Queensland, which is now torn between border closures and economic survival. He will certainly be keeping a close eye on the contest, even if it is <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/queensland-government-finally-sets-date-for-opening-of-nsw-border--but-theres-a-catch-c-1359240">impossible</a> to visit in person.</p>
<p>There are just four weeks to go.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146927/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Williams is a Research Associate with the T.J. Ryan Foundation</span></em></p>As Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk and the LNP’s Deb Frecklington vie for Queenslanders’ votes, leadership, COVID and economic recovery are set to dominate debate.Paul Williams, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1450982020-09-02T05:01:27Z2020-09-02T05:01:27ZHow Clive Palmer could challenge the act designed to stop him getting $30 billion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355982/original/file-20200902-18-2k7n52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C25%2C2842%2C1850&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The West Australian government recently took the extraordinary step of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wa-government-legislated-itself-a-win-in-its-dispute-with-clive-palmer-and-put-itself-above-the-law-144360">passing legislation</a> to try to stop mining magnate Clive Palmer from collecting about $30 billion in damages from the state. </p>
<p>As Premier Mark McGowan argues, such a hefty bill <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/liberals-line-up-to-blast-mcgowan-s-claim-palmer-lawsuit-would-close-hospitals-schools-20200814-p55lqv.html">risks bankrupting WA</a>. </p>
<p>While the so-called “<a href="https://www.legislation.wa.gov.au/legislation/prod/filestore.nsf/FileURL/mrdoc_43095.htm/$FILE/Iron%20Ore%20Processing%20(Mineralogy%20Pty%20Ltd)%20Agreement%20Amendment%20Act%202020%20-%20%5B00-00-00%5D.html?OpenElement">Mineralogy Act</a>” passed state parliament in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/clive-palmer-wa-row-not-over-despite-laws-to-block-damages-claim/12556616">just two days</a>, it is far from straightforward. </p>
<p>It raises a host of questions that are likely to be tested in courts in the months - and possibly years - ahead. </p>
<h2>What is this dispute about?</h2>
<p>Palmer is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-are-the-disputes-involving-clive-palmer-and-the-wa-government-about-20200819-p55ndk.html">no stranger to litigation</a>. Recently, he has also been fighting the WA government over <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-court-finds-border-closures-safest-way-to-protect-public-health-in-clive-palmer-case-145038">COVID border closures</a>. </p>
<p>But this particular dispute dates back to 2012 and concerns an iron ore project in the Pilbara. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-court-finds-border-closures-safest-way-to-protect-public-health-in-clive-palmer-case-145038">Federal Court finds border closures safest way to protect public health in Clive Palmer case</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Palmer has argued his development proposals for the Balmoral South iron ore project were unlawfully refused by the previous state government, under former premier Colin Barnett. He is reportedly seeking about <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-18/clive-palmer-seeking-tens-of-billions-documents-reveal/12570338">$30 billion</a> in damages.</p>
<h2>The Mineralogy Act</h2>
<p>In mid-August, the state government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/clive-palmer-wa-row-not-over-despite-laws-to-block-damages-claim/12556616">passed the Mineralogy Act</a> to terminate the damages claims against it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="WA Premier Mark McGowan" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355943/original/file-20200902-18-wgjv5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The McGowan government says the legislation is needed to protect the ‘interests’ of WA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwright/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before this, Palmer and his companies, including Mineralogy, had been pursuing these claims through arbitration - a dispute resolution process that happens outside the courts. This arbitration was about whether the WA government properly dealt with proposals Palmer’s companies made under a <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/wa/consol_act/iopplaa2002502/sch1.html">2002 agreement</a>. </p>
<p>Last week, after the act passed, Palmer declared he would sue McGowan and Attorney-General John Quigley for “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-26/clive-palmer-suing-mark-mcgowan-john-quigley-in-new-legal-action/12596538">contempt of the High Court of Australia</a>”.</p>
<p>This is likely to be one of many salvos in a protracted legal battle.</p>
<h2>Does Palmer have a claim for contempt of court?</h2>
<p>Contempt of court means acts that interfere with or undermine the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/1995/3.html?context=1;query=witham%20v%20holloway;mask_path=">authority, performance or dignity</a> of the courts.</p>
<p>The Mineralogy Act seeks to terminate the arbitration for the reported $30 billion claims. </p>
<p>It also invalidates existing arbitral awards, which are decisions determining parties’ rights and liabilities. Given that arbitrations are not court proceedings, these aspects of the act do not establish contempt of court.</p>
<p>However, where a party does not comply with an arbitration award, the award can be registered with the courts and then enforced as if it were a court judgment. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Dumper truck in the Pilbara." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355945/original/file-20200902-14-hmw42n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This dispute is over an iron ore project in the Pilbara.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kim Christian/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before the act was passed, Palmer had registered <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/13/clive-palmer-says-queensland-court-action-makes-wa-move-to-avoid-damages-unconstitutional">two arbitration awards</a> in the Queensland Supreme Court. The act seeks to remove the basis for these claims. There is <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/vic/VicSC/1995/510.html?context=1;query=Dagi;mask_path=">precedent</a> that this may constitute contempt of the Queensland court (although contrary to Palmer’s assertions, not the High Court). </p>
<p>However, even if Palmer establishes contempt of the Queensland court, that would not invalidate the Mineralogy Act. Any penalty imposed by the court would also be modest in comparison to the $30 billion damages claim.</p>
<h2>Can the WA parliament pass a law that takes away rights without compensation?</h2>
<p>Apart from the contempt issue, Palmer may argue the WA parliament cannot pass a law that takes away individual rights without compensation. </p>
<p>In this regard, state laws that take away rights are unusual, <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2001/7.html?context=1;query=durham%20holdings;mask_path=">but not new</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wa-government-legislated-itself-a-win-in-its-dispute-with-clive-palmer-and-put-itself-above-the-law-144360">The WA government legislated itself a win in its dispute with Clive Palmer — and put itself above the law</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The <a href="https://cdn.hcourt.gov.au/assets/publications/judgment-summaries/2015/hca-13-2015-04-15.pdf">High Court</a> and <a href="https://www.queenslandjudgments.com.au/case/id/501587">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/the-ghost-of-lang-hancock/">WA supreme courts</a> have previously treated state laws that remove rights of particular persons without just compensation as valid. </p>
<p>While the WA parliament has not previously amended a state agreement with a mining company without consent, this was found to be valid in <a href="https://www.queenslandjudgments.com.au/case/id/501587">Queensland</a>. This approach is consistent with the principle that the present parliament can generally amend existing laws.</p>
<p>As a political, rather than legal matter, politicians have found that laws targeting mining rights <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/14/wa-nationals-leader-brendon-grylls-loses-seat-to-labor-after-attack-from-mining-lobby">can be hazardous</a>. </p>
<p>Whether public opinion will ultimately support the Mineralogy Act remains to be seen. But the <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/mark-mcgowan-for-pm-wa-punters-might-want-it-but-does-labor-20200805-p55ix6.html">current popularity</a> of the WA government over its handling of COVID-19 and the <a href="https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/wa-premier-s-populism-makes-palmer-a-legal-pariah-but-why-20200812-p55l51.html">potential popularity</a> of “saving” the state’s finances will undoubtedly influence perspectives. </p>
<h2>Are parts of the Mineralogy Act unconstitutional?</h2>
<p>Palmer may also argue parts of the Mineralogy Act are unconstitutional.</p>
<p>Parliaments can pass laws about matters involved in ongoing legal disputes. They can even target particular cases or parties. But based on Chapter III of the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/%7E/link.aspx?_id=1A4B10F0E0C645D68D16DC6953E7CE52&_z=z">Constitution</a>, they can’t compromise the court’s integrity by telling a court how to decide. This constitutional line is often tricky to draw. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Clive Palmer at a press conference on the Gold Coast." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355921/original/file-20200902-14-1l88z79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clive Palmer says he will sue the WA government over the Mineralogy Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Paled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The act does not entirely remove the court’s power to examine the legality of government actions. But it does try to stop courts from giving remedies that are unfavourable to WA.</p>
<p>So, it doesn’t quite tell courts how to decide, but it does restrict what they can do, which is getting into uncertain constitutional territory. </p>
<p>The WA government <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/FDACB99A1DDAB100482585D100069AC5/$FILE/A40%20S1%2020200811%20p4594b-4599a.pdf">has described</a> the Mineralogy Act as “unprecedented,” containing a number of measures that are “not usual”. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>but Mineralogy and Mr Palmer are not normal and these measures are needed to best protect the interests of the state and the community.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, even necessary laws must be constitutional.</p>
<h2>Does Palmer really stand to gain $30 billion in damages anyway?</h2>
<p>Palmer has said the widely reported $30 billion price tag is “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/clive-palmer-wa-row-not-over-despite-laws-to-block-damages-claim/12556616">bullshit</a>”. But Quigley <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-18/clive-palmer-seeking-tens-of-billions-documents-reveal/12570338">tabled details </a>in parliament last month showing the total damages sought by Palmer and his companies in relation to the iron ore project was at least $27.75 billion.</p>
<p>Palmer’s <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/FDACB99A1DDAB100482585D100069AC5/$FILE/A40%20S1%2020200811%20p4594b-4599a.pdf">damages claims</a> focus on the loss of opportunities to develop and sell the project to Chinese state-owned enterprises. </p>
<p>But core principles for assessing damages for breach of contract - which in this case is a <a href="https://www.legislation.wa.gov.au/legislation/prod/filestore.nsf/FileURL/mrdoc_43096.htm/$FILE/Iron%20Ore%20Processing%20(Mineralogy%20Pty%20Ltd)%20Agreement%20Act%202002%20-%20%5B00-c0-01%5D.html?OpenElement">2002 agreement</a> between Mineralogy and the state government - may stand in the way.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/these-young-queenslanders-are-taking-on-clive-palmers-coal-company-and-making-history-for-human-rights-138732">These young Queenslanders are taking on Clive Palmer's coal company and making history for human rights</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The state’s improper delay in approving the project must have caused the loss - but it is <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/FDACB99A1DDAB100482585D100069AC5/$FILE/A40%20S1%2020200811%20p4594b-4599a.pdf">not clear</a> this is the case. There may have been other reasons for the losses, including the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b33b2fc8-cd8d-11e4-9144-00144feab7de">post-GFC mining slump</a>.</p>
<p>Also, the value of what Palmer has lost needs to reflect the likelihood the project would have occurred without the delay, and so is likely to be much lower than $30 billion. </p>
<p>Palmer must also have taken reasonable steps to minimise his loss. This might mean following the standard industry practice of <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Hansard/hansard.nsf/0/FDACB99A1DDAB100482585D100069AC5/$FILE/A40%20S1%2020200811%20p4594b-4599a.pdf">amending the development</a> proposals to meet state government conditions, noting the Mineralogy Act still leaves this possibility open.</p>
<h2>What happens now?</h2>
<p>Palmer has a potential claim that the passage of the Mineralogy Act constitutes contempt of the Queensland Supreme Court. It is also possible parts of the act, such as those that restrict the remedies available to courts, are unconstitutional. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mineral-wealth-clive-palmer-and-the-corruption-of-australian-politics-117248">Mineral wealth, Clive Palmer, and the corruption of Australian politics</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>However, even if Palmer succeeds in these claims, it is not clear how much he will actually gain financially, or if his claim is really worth $30 billion.</p>
<p>The Mineralogy Act is so unusual, it would be foolish to predict outcomes to these complex legal questions. Over the coming months, we will start seeing answers to these questions as Palmer brings lawsuits and proceedings work their way through the courts. </p>
<p>The answers will provide profound insights into the decision-making powers of states.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145098/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Wesson has previously received funding from the International Mining for Development Centre (IM4DC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Murray has previously received funding from Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and the Minerals Council of Australia for research relating to Indigenous benefits management structures.
Ian is also on a working group with the Minerals Council of Australia and the National Native Title Council focussed on Indigenous economic development. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Southalan has previously worked with a land council, assisting clients in proceedings against Mineralogy companies. Nothing from that work has informed, nor is relied on, in this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Natalie Brown has received funding from National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, Centre for Mining Energy and Natural Resources Law (UWA) for PhD research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Murray has received funding from the Australian Institute of Criminology and the WA Public Purposes Trust.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie Falck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The legislation designed to stop Palmer claiming huge damages against WA raises a host of questions.Murray Wesson, Senior Lecturer in Law, The University of Western AustraliaIan Murray, Associate Professor, The University of Western AustraliaJohn Southalan, Global Faculty (Centre of Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law & Policy), University of DundeeJulie Falck, Lecturer, The University of Western AustraliaNatalie Brown, Lecturer in Administrative and Property Law; PhD in WA iron ore State agreements, The University of Western AustraliaSarah Murray, Professor specialising in public law and less-adversarial justice, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.