tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/colorado-638/articlesColorado – The Conversation2024-03-22T12:31:27Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249032024-03-22T12:31:27Z2024-03-22T12:31:27ZLab tests show THC potency inflated on retail marijuana in Colorado<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582213/original/file-20240315-18-4mmw21.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An analysis of 23 cannabis samples from 10 dispensaries found a majority had at least 30% less THC than they were reported to have.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/selection-of-cannabis-and-legal-medical-royalty-free-image/1210433696">Zenkyphoto/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cannabis flower sold in Colorado claims to contain much more tetrahydrocannabinol, or THC, than it actually does, according to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0282396">my findings</a> published in the peer-reviewed journal Plos One. </p>
<p>THC is the psychoactive compound that is derived when cannabis flower – commonly referred to as “bud” – is heated through smoking or cooking.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Accurate THC reporting is a linchpin for medical patients, recreational consumers and the overall integrity of the cannabis industry. Medical and recreational flower is generally the same – the difference is in testing requirements, price, taxes and purchase limits. Misleading potency information can disrupt medical dosages, misguide recreational users and erode trust in an industry <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/08/cannabis-companies-us-financial-system-banking-safer-act">striving for legitimacy</a>. </p>
<p>Consumers often associate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s42238-022-00117-0">higher THC levels in cannabis flower with superior quality</a>, potentially leading to overpayment for products that may not meet their expectations. This misconception can also create incentives for <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.893009">cultivators, testing labs and dispensaries</a> to generate higher THC numbers – whether through cultivation techniques or through testing fraud.</p>
<p>Additionally, testing for <a href="https://www.cannabisbusinesstimes.com/news/state-testing-maine-medical-cannabis-samples-contain-contaminants/">toxins, pesticides and total yeast and mold</a> can also fall victim to falsification. Recent reports reveal instances where labs in <a href="https://www.syracuse.com/marijuana/2023/09/nys-testing-failures-expose-legal-weed-consumers-to-unsafe-cannabis-a-serious-health-threat.html">New York</a> and <a href="https://mjbizdaily.com/marijuana-lab-testing-analysis-finds-routine-thc-inflation-data-manipulation/">other states</a> have passed products that should have failed. This casts doubt on the credibility of the broader testing processes in place. </p>
<h2>How I did my work</h2>
<p>I gathered a total of 23 cannabis flower samples from 10 dispensaries across the northern Colorado Front Range, which includes Denver, Fort Collins and Garden City. The samples encompassed 12 strains, including indica, sativa and hybrid types, and varied in reported THC values. Some had ranges, such as 12.8%-19.3% on the lower end and 28.07%-31.28% on the higher end, while others had single values, such as 16.4% or 17.4%.</p>
<p>I sent the samples to a third-party testing lab that does <a href="https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Analytical_Chemistry/Supplemental_Modules_(Analytical_Chemistry)/Instrumentation_and_Analysis/Chromatography/High_Performance_Liquid_Chromatography">high-performance liquid chromatography</a>, or HPLC. HPLC is a method to separate, identify and quantify components in mixtures based on their chemical properties. It is the most commonly used method in cannabis testing to analyze <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/cannabinoid">cannabinoids</a> and detect contaminants. This can ensure product potency, safety and quality.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0282396">Approximately 70% of the labels</a> reported THC percentages more than 15% higher than what was quantified through the lab. </p>
<p>Among the 23 flower samples analyzed, 18 displayed lower THC levels than reported – with 16 falling below 15% of the stated value, 13 falling below 30% of the reported THC and three samples falling below half of the reported THC. Notably, only one sample had slightly higher THC than reported. Four were within the reported range.</p>
<p>The observed disparity was not due to aging. When THC ages and degrades, it turns into cannabinol, or CBN. CBN was not found in measurable amounts in any of the samples, however, and further testing indicated stable THC levels over time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582298/original/file-20240315-20-14twiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Cannabis buds in a miniature toy shopping cart" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582298/original/file-20240315-20-14twiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582298/original/file-20240315-20-14twiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582298/original/file-20240315-20-14twiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582298/original/file-20240315-20-14twiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582298/original/file-20240315-20-14twiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582298/original/file-20240315-20-14twiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582298/original/file-20240315-20-14twiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cannabis shoppers often conflate high THC with superior quality.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.istockphoto.com/photo/purple-cannabis-buds-gm1297291078-390472048">Yarphoto/iStock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>A fundamental query looms large: With advancements in cultivation techniques, including lighting, nutrients and selective breeding, has the potency of cannabis flower genuinely surged over the past 15 years? </p>
<p>THC levels <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpsc.2020.12.016">averaged 9.75% back in 2009</a>, based on testing of DEA-seized cannabis flower. Today, levels reportedly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s42238-024-00220-4">surpass 35%</a>, though they’re not as common as consumers have been led to believe. DEA-seized cannabis flower <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpsc.2020.12.016">averaged 13.88% in 2019</a>, which is closer to my observed mean of 14.98% than the reported mean of my samples, which was 20.27%-24.10%.</p>
<p>We also do not know who is responsible for the misinformation regarding inflated THC potency for cannabis flower. It could be cultivators or dispensaries selecting the best flowers to test. Sampling guidelines differ by state, but all require a random sample from the entire batch. But there is little to no oversight when it comes to enforcing these guidelines. It could also be lab fraud. Facilities might manipulate the testing process or doctor numbers on the certificate of analysis to ensure repeat business from producers and distributors who set prices based on THC content, or to generate new customers.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>I believe a critical next step is for the cannabis industry to educate consumers on how to make more informed choices by looking beyond mere THC percentages. People generally do not shop for wine or beer based on alcohol content. Instead of focusing on THC content, a novice cannabis consumer might consider brands that are reputable or strains that have an aroma or flavor profile they enjoy. Eventually, they may move on to find a favorite breeder or grower, or a trusted dispensary that employs a knowledgeable budtender. A budtender is akin to a bartender in a dispensary setting, serving as a customer representative.</p>
<p>Cannabis consumers, industry players and the public must also continue to <a href="https://talkingjointsmemo.com/proving-the-biggest-mass-cannabis-story-of-2023/">advocate for better oversight</a> in sampling and testing to ensure <a href="https://commonwealthbeacon.org/marijuana/marijuana-content-labels-cant-be-trusted/">safety, transparency and accountability</a> and to foster trust from the cannabis community.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Schwabe is a board member for the Agricultural Genomics Foundation, not-for-profit group.
She also worked for Mile High Labs following post graduation, but was not involved in lab testing for this study.</span></em></p>Misleading potency labels can disrupt medical dosages, misguide recreational users and erode trust in the industry.Anna Schwabe, Associate Lecture Professor of Modern Cannabis Science, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2234262024-03-04T15:38:32Z2024-03-04T15:38:32ZSupreme Court says only Congress can bar a candidate, like Trump, from the presidency for insurrection − 3 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579609/original/file-20240304-20-77h9ij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C49%2C8130%2C5408&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Journalists set up in front of the U.S. Supreme Court building on Feb. 8, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-press-stake-out-outside-the-supreme-court-in-news-photo/1991622087">Aaron Schwartz/Xinhua via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled, in a unanimous decision, that the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf">state of Colorado cannot bar former President Donald Trump</a> from appearing on Colorado’s presidential ballot under the provisions of <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-14/#amendment-14-section-3">Section 3 of the 14th Amendment</a> to the U.S. Constitution.</p>
<p>The text of <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-14/">Section 3 of the 14th Amendment states</a>, in full:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The ruling said states may decide who is eligible to hold state offices, but <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf">only Congress may decide</a> who is eligible to hold federal offices.</p>
<p>Writing for The Conversation U.S. as far back as 2021, several scholars have explained aspects of this part of the Constitution, how it was intended, and the legal and political considerations surrounding its function. They give context to the court’s ruling and what it means for the country now.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380248/original/file-20210122-17-ad7bzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pelosi signs a document with four people standing behind her, and American flags" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380248/original/file-20210122-17-ad7bzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380248/original/file-20210122-17-ad7bzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380248/original/file-20210122-17-ad7bzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380248/original/file-20210122-17-ad7bzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380248/original/file-20210122-17-ad7bzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380248/original/file-20210122-17-ad7bzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380248/original/file-20210122-17-ad7bzu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi signs an article of impeachment against then-President Donald Trump on Jan. 13, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/speaker-of-the-house-nancy-pelosi-signs-an-article-of-impeachment-picture-id1230572656?k=6&m=1230572656&s=612x612&w=0&h=V-BDhqZJ7pEUiqqfWq25M5pz4SND4vIJiq3wpFu6O7Q=">Stefani Reynolds/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. A relatively recent development</h2>
<p>In early 2021, <a href="https://mckinneylaw.iu.edu/faculty-staff/profile-WCMS.cfm?Id=40">Gerard Magliocca</a>, a law professor at Indiana University, pointed out that up until that time, “<a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-could-use-an-arcane-section-of-the-14th-amendment-to-hold-trump-accountable-for-capitol-attack-153344">Section 3 of the 14th Amendment</a> was an obscure part of the U.S. Constitution.”</p>
<p>But this provision had an important purpose, he wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“It prohibits current or former military officers, along with many current and former federal and state public officials, <a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-could-use-an-arcane-section-of-the-14th-amendment-to-hold-trump-accountable-for-capitol-attack-153344">from serving in a variety of government offices</a> if they ‘shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion’ against the United States Constitution.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Supreme Court’s ruling did not decide whether Trump had or had not engaged in insurrection.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/congress-could-use-an-arcane-section-of-the-14th-amendment-to-hold-trump-accountable-for-capitol-attack-153344">Congress could use an arcane section of the 14th Amendment to hold Trump accountable for Capitol attack</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. Justices focused on potential for national disarray</h2>
<p>During oral arguments on Feb. 8, 2024, several members of the Supreme Court focused on the fact that this case was about a Colorado decision to bar Trump from the ballot, which suggested that other states might come to their own conclusions if the court didn’t deliver a clear message that would apply nationwide.</p>
<p>As Notre Dame election law scholar <a href="https://law.nd.edu/directory/derek-muller/">Derek Muller</a> observed: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-skeptical-that-colorado-or-any-state-should-decide-for-whole-nation-whether-trump-is-eligible-for-presidency-223063">States are the ones who have the primary responsibility</a> of running presidential elections. And Colorado was leaning very heavily into this authority they have over which candidates to list on the ballot and how that can vary from state to state. The pushback from the Supreme Court in this case was to say, in essence, you’re not dealing with local or state interests, you’re not dealing with these state-specific procedures for how you list candidates on the ballot. You are interpreting a provision of the U.S. Constitution, and then you are applying it in your own state in a way that could affect what happens in other states.”</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-skeptical-that-colorado-or-any-state-should-decide-for-whole-nation-whether-trump-is-eligible-for-presidency-223063">Supreme Court skeptical that Colorado − or any state − should decide for whole nation whether Trump is eligible for presidency</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574469/original/file-20240208-20-2e10qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=86%2C0%2C5131%2C3472&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A police officer standing behind a barricade and in front of a large, white columned building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574469/original/file-20240208-20-2e10qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=86%2C0%2C5131%2C3472&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574469/original/file-20240208-20-2e10qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574469/original/file-20240208-20-2e10qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574469/original/file-20240208-20-2e10qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574469/original/file-20240208-20-2e10qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574469/original/file-20240208-20-2e10qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574469/original/file-20240208-20-2e10qo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police place a fence at the U.S. Supreme Court on Feb. 8, 2024, before justices heard arguments over whether Donald Trump is ineligible for the 2024 ballot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024TrumpInsurrectionAmendment/05e2c7bc3615410b8088714a425193c9/photo?Query=trump%20supreme%20court&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=5319&currentItemNo=15">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. The importance of consensus</h2>
<p>The court appears to have taken pains to get to a unanimous decision. Muller anticipated such a move. He said it was likely because of the potential effect on elections:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-supreme-court-decision-on-trump-colorado-ballot-case-monumental-for-democracy-itself-not-just-2024-presidential-election-220643">This is a binary choice</a> that either empowers the Republican candidate or prevents voters from choosing him. So when you have a choice in such stark, political and partisan terms, whatever the Supreme Court is doing is often going to be viewed through that lens by many voters. … (T)here will be as much effort as possible internally on the court to reach a consensus view to avoid that appearance of partisanship on the court, that appearance of division on the court. If there’s consensus, it’s harder for the public to … point the finger at one side or another.”</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-supreme-court-decision-on-trump-colorado-ballot-case-monumental-for-democracy-itself-not-just-2024-presidential-election-220643">US Supreme Court decision on Trump-Colorado ballot case 'monumental' for democracy itself, not just 2024 presidential election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223426/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Experts explain the context behind the Supreme Court’s ruling on Donald Trump’s eligibility to appear on presidential ballots.Jeff Inglis, Politics + Society Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2220572024-03-01T13:33:37Z2024-03-01T13:33:37ZAltitude sickness is typically mild but can sometimes turn very serious − a high-altitude medicine physician explains how to safely prepare<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577770/original/file-20240225-28-vk2tcl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=77%2C33%2C7271%2C4869&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Altitude sickness is rare at elevations of less than 8,200 feet but becomes much more common at higher altitudes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/girls-having-fun-royalty-free-image/854544188?phrase=mountain+adventure+travel&adppopup=true">Maya Karkalicheva/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Equipped with the latest gear and a thirst for adventure, mountaineers embrace the perils that come with conquering the world’s highest peaks. Yet, even those who tread more cautiously at high altitude are not immune from the health hazards waiting in the thin air above.</p>
<p>Altitude sickness, which most commonly refers to <a href="https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/000133.htm">acute mountain sickness</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pcad.2010.02.003">presents a significant challenge</a> to those traveling to and adventuring in high-altitude destinations. Its symptoms can range from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2017.0164">mildly annoying to incapacitating</a> and, in some cases, may progress to more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1183/16000617.0096-2016">life-threatening illnesses</a>. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://doi.org/10.18111/9789284424023">interest in high-altitude tourism is rapidly growing</a>, general awareness and understanding about the hazards of visiting these locations <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2022.0083">remains low</a>. The more travelers know, the better they can prepare for and enjoy their journey.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://som.cuanschutz.edu/Profiles/Faculty/Profile/36740">emergency physician specializing in high-altitude illnesses</a>, I work to improve health care in remote and mountainous locations around the world. I’m invested in finding ways to allow people from all backgrounds to experience the magic of the mountains in an enjoyable and meaningful way.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578372/original/file-20240227-24-3c22h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Researcher wearing cold-weather gear stands in front of a health clinic in the Himalayas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578372/original/file-20240227-24-3c22h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578372/original/file-20240227-24-3c22h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578372/original/file-20240227-24-3c22h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578372/original/file-20240227-24-3c22h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578372/original/file-20240227-24-3c22h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578372/original/file-20240227-24-3c22h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578372/original/file-20240227-24-3c22h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author in front of the Himalayan Rescue Association clinic in Nepal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brian Strickland</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The science behind altitude sickness</h2>
<p>Altitude sickness is rare in locations lower than 8,200 feet (2,500 meters); however, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK430716/">it becomes very common</a> when ascending above this elevation. In fact, it affects about <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2024/environmental-hazards-risks/high-elevation-travel-and-altitude-illness">25% of visitors to the mountains of Colorado</a>, where I conduct most of my research. </p>
<p>The risk rapidly increases with higher ascents. Above 9,800 feet (3,000 meters), up to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK430716/">75% of travelers</a> may develop symptoms. Symptoms of altitude sickness are usually mild and consist of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2017.0164">headache, dizziness, nausea, fatigue and insomnia</a>. They usually <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rceng.2019.12.009">resolve after one to two days</a>, as long as travelers stop their ascent, and the symptoms quickly resolve with descent. </p>
<p>When travelers do not properly acclimatize, they can be susceptible to life-threatening altitude illnesses, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resp.2007.05.002">high-altitude pulmonary edema</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/1527029041352054">high-altitude cerebral edema</a>. These conditions are characterized by fluid accumulation within the tissues of the lungs and brain, respectively, and are the <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2024/environmental-hazards-risks/high-elevation-travel-and-altitude-illness#">most severe forms of altitude sickness</a>.</p>
<p>Altitude sickness symptoms are thought to be caused by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Fbjaceaccp%2Fmks047">increased pressure surrounding the brain</a>, which results from the failure of the body to acclimatize to higher elevations. </p>
<p>As people enter into an environment with lower air pressure and, therefore, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.18036">lower oxygen content</a>, their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Fbjaceaccp%2Fmks047">breathing rate increases</a> in order to compensate. This causes an increase in the amount of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s1357-2725(03)00050-5">oxygen in the blood as well as decreased CO₂ levels</a>, which then increases blood pH. As a result, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Fbjaceaccp%2Fmks047">kidneys compensate</a> by removing a chemical called bicarbonate from the blood into the urine. This process makes people urinate more and helps correct the acid and alkaline content of the blood to a more normal level.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iv1vQPIdX_k?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tips for preventing or reducing the risk of altitude sickness.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The importance of gradual ascent</h2>
<p>High-altitude medicine experts and other physicians <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(76)91677-9">have known for decades</a> that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2010.1006">taking time to slowly ascend is the best way</a> to prevent the development of altitude sickness. </p>
<p>This strategy gives the body time to complete its natural physiologic responses to the changes in air pressure and oxygen content. In fact, spending just <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2010.1006">one night at a moderate elevation</a>, such as Denver, Colorado, which is at 5,280 feet (1,600 meters), has been shown to <a href="https://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-118-8-199304150-00003">significantly reduce the likelihood of developing symptoms</a>. </p>
<p>People who skip this step and travel directly to high elevations are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taad011">up to four times more likely</a> to develop altitude sickness symptoms. When going to elevations greater than 11,000 feet, multiple days of acclimatization are necessary. Experts generally recommend ascending <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2010.1006">no more than 1,500 feet per day</a> once the threshold of 8,200 feet of elevation has been crossed. </p>
<p>Workers at high altitude, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2020.0004">porters in the Nepali Himalaya</a>, are at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2018.06.002">particular risk of altitude-related illness</a>. These workers often do not adhere to acclimatization recommendations in order to maximize earnings during tourist seasons; as a result, they are more likely to experience <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2024/environmental-hazards-risks/high-elevation-travel-and-altitude-illness#">severe forms of altitude sickness</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577771/original/file-20240225-24-nb9e6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Five tents glow against the night sky with a tall mountain in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577771/original/file-20240225-24-nb9e6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577771/original/file-20240225-24-nb9e6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577771/original/file-20240225-24-nb9e6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577771/original/file-20240225-24-nb9e6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577771/original/file-20240225-24-nb9e6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577771/original/file-20240225-24-nb9e6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577771/original/file-20240225-24-nb9e6p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adventure tourism is growing rapidly, but general awareness and education around altitude sickness and ways to prevent it remains low.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/milky-way-over-mitre-peak-view-from-concordia-camp-royalty-free-image/1936855402?phrase=mountain+adventure+travel&adppopup=true">Punnawit Suwuttananun/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Effective medications</h2>
<p>For more than 40 years, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1056/nejm196810172791601">a medicine called acetazolamide</a> has been used to <a href="https://medlineplus.gov/druginfo/meds/a682756.html">prevent the development of altitude sickness</a> and to treat its symptoms. Acetazolamide is <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK557838/">commonly used as a diuretic</a> and for the <a href="https://www.nei.nih.gov/learn-about-eye-health/eye-conditions-and-diseases/glaucoma#">treatment of glaucoma</a>, a condition that causes increased pressure within the eye.</p>
<p>If started <a href="https://doi.org/10.1378/chest.09-2445">two days prior</a> to going up to a high elevation, acetazolamide can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1378/chest.09-2445">prevent symptoms of acute illness</a> by speeding up the acclimatization process. Nonetheless, it does not negate the recommendations to ascend slowly, and it is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2019.04.006">routinely recommended only</a> when people cannot slowly ascend or for people who have a history of severe altitude sickness symptoms even with slow ascent.</p>
<p>Other medications, including ibuprofen, have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2012.08.001">shown some effectiveness</a> in treating acute mountain sickness, although <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amjmed.2018.10.021">not as well as acetazolamide</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2028586/">steroid medication called dexamethasone</a> is effective in both treating and preventing symptoms, but it does not improve acclimatization. It is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2019.04.006">recommended only when acetazolamide is not effective</a> or cannot be taken. </p>
<p>Additionally, it is important to <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/travel-to-high-altitudes#">avoid alcohol during the first few days at higher altitudes</a>, as it impairs the body’s ability to acclimatize.</p>
<h2>Unproven therapies and remedies are common</h2>
<p>As high-altitude tourism becomes increasingly popular, multiple commercial products and remedies have emerged. Most of them are not effective or provide no evidence to suggest they work as advertised. Other options have mixed evidence, making them difficult to recommend.</p>
<p>Medications such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2007.1037">aspirin</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1183/13993003.01355-2017">inhaled steroids</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2011.0007">sildenafil</a> have been proposed as possible preventive agents for altitude sickness, but on the whole they have not been found to be effective.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qjmed/hcp026">Supplements and antioxidants have no proven benefit</a> in preventing or treating altitude sickness symptoms. Both normal and high-altitude exercise are popular ways to prepare for high elevations, especially among athletes. However, beyond <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/jes.0b013e31825eaa33">certain pre-acclimatization strategies</a>, such as brief sojourns to high altitude, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2013.12.002">physical fitness and training is of little benefit</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://missouripoisoncenter.org/canned-oxygen-is-it-good-for-you">Canned oxygen</a> has also exploded in popularity with travelers. While <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-6736(90)93240-p">continuously administered medical oxygen</a> in a health care setting can alleviate altitude sickness symptoms, portable oxygen cans <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2019.04.006">contain very little oxygen gas</a>, casting doubt on their effectiveness.</p>
<p>Some high-altitude adventure travelers sleep in <a href="https://doi.org/10.2165/00007256-200131040-00002">specialized tents</a> that simulate increased elevation by lowering the quantity of available oxygen in ambient air. The lower oxygen levels within the tent are thought to accelerate the acclimatization process, but the tents aren’t able to decrease barometric pressure. This is an important part of the high-altitude environment that induces acclimatization. Without modifying ambient air pressure, these <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2014.04.004">tents may take multiple weeks</a> to be effective. </p>
<p>Natural medicines, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1580/08-weme-br-247.1">gingko</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40794-019-0095-7">coca leaves</a>, are touted as natural altitude sickness treatments, but few studies have been done on them. The modest benefits and significant side effects of these options makes their use <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2019.04.006">difficult to recommend</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8469948/">Staying hydrated</a> is very important at high altitudes due to fluid losses from increased urination, dry air and increased physical exertion. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186%2Fs12889-018-6252-5">Dehydration symptoms</a> can also mimic those of altitude sickness. But there is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1580/1080-6032(2006)17%5B215:AMSIOF%5D2.0.CO;2">little evidence that consuming excessive amounts of water</a> can prevent or treat altitude sickness.</p>
<p>The mountains have something for visitors of all interests and expertise and can offer truly life-changing experiences. While there are health risks associated with travel at higher elevations, these can be lessened by making basic preparations and taking time to slowly ascend.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222057/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Strickland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whether you’re ascending to high altitudes for casual travel or for adventure tourism, there are specific strategies to help you acclimate and reduce the likelihood of altitude sickness.Brian Strickland, Senior Instructor in Emergency Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical CampusLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236472024-02-16T13:19:35Z2024-02-16T13:19:35ZForest Service warns of budget cuts ahead of a risky wildfire season – what that means for safety<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575790/original/file-20240215-20-28tft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=79%2C144%2C1867%2C1217&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the Snake River Hotshot crew monitor a prescribed fire near Roberts, Idaho.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nifc/52530463314/">Austin Catlin/BLM</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A wet winter and spring followed by a hot, dry summer can be a dangerous combination in the Western U.S. The rain fuels bountiful vegetation growth, and when summer heat dries out that vegetation, it can <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/wf12064">leave grasses and shrubs ready to burn</a>. Drier than normal conditions, like many regions are experiencing in 2024, also raises the fire risk.</p>
<p>In years like this, controlled burns and prescribed fire treatments are crucial to help protect communities against wildfires. Well-staffed fire crews ready to respond to blazes are essential, too.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A forecast map shows above average temperatures likely across the US in July- August-September period for 2024, but particularly in the Western US." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center’s long-range seasonal forecast for summer 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=6">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, on Feb. 8, U.S. Forest Service Chief Randy Moore told agency employees to <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/inside-fs/leadership/fy2024-budget-overview">expect budget cuts</a> from Congress in 2024. His letter was thin on details. However, taken at face value, budget cuts could be interpreted as a reduction in the firefighting workforce, compounding recruitment and retention challenges that the Forest Service is already facing.</p>
<p>So what does this mean for the coming fire season? We <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=XgAzk2EAAAAJ">study wildfire policy</a> and fire ecology, and one of us, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=g2KEhV4AAAAJ&hl=en">Camille Stevens-Rumann</a>, has worked as a wildland firefighter. Here are a few important things to know.</p>
<h2>The fire funding fix</h2>
<p>While Moore’s letter raises concerns, the financial reality for fighting fires this year is likely less dire than it might otherwise be for one key reason.</p>
<p>The 2018 Consolidated Appropriations Act included what is known as the “<a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-115publ141/pdf/PLAW-115publ141.pdf">fire funding fix</a>.” It introduced a new budget structure, creating a separate disaster fund accessible during costly wildfire seasons. The fire funding fix allows federal firefighting agencies to access up to US$2.25 billion in additional disaster funding a year starting in 2020 and increasing to $2.95 billion in 2027.</p>
<p>Prior to the fire funding fix, fighting fires – suppression expenditures – consumed <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/defining-success-wildfire-funding-fix/">nearly 50% of the U.S. Forest Service budget</a>. As bad fire years worsened, that left less funding for the agency’s other services, including conducting fuel treatments, such as prescribed burns, to reduce the risk of wildfires spreading.</p>
<p><iframe id="DyoBq" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DyoBq/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The fix protects agency budgets, ensuring that a high-cost fire season will not completely consume the budget, and that allows more funding for preventive efforts and all the other programs of the Forest Service.</p>
<h2>Prevention is a rising priority</h2>
<p>The Forest Service has also made fire prevention a <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/Wildfire-Crisis-Implementation-Plan.pdf">higher priority in recent years</a>.</p>
<p>In 2022, it released a <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/Wildfire-Crisis-Implementation-Plan.pdf">Wildfire Crisis Strategy and Implementation Plan</a> that included ramping up fuel treatments to reduce the potential for large uncontrollable fires, as the West had seen in previous years. It called for treating up to an additional 50 million acres over 10 years.</p>
<p>That work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvac042">won’t be completed before the 2024 fire season</a>, but fuel treatments will be underway. They include prescribed burning to remove dry grasses, twigs, logs and other fuels in a controlled way and the use of heavy equipment to thin dense forest areas and create fire breaks by removing trees and vegetation. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wildland firefighter conducts a controlled burnout to help stop a fire near Spokane, Wash., in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nifc/52530781658/">Sienna Falzetta/BLM</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Prescribed burning must be done when conditions are safe to limit the potential for the fire to get out of control, usually in the spring and early summer. However, climate change is expected to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00993-1">shorten the prescribed burning window</a> in the western U.S.</p>
<h2>Staffing is still a concern</h2>
<p>Doing this work requires staff, and the Forest Service’s challenges in recruiting and retaining qualified firefighters may hinder its ability to accomplish all of its objectives. </p>
<p>In 2023, over 18,000 people were employed as federal wildland firefighters. While the Forest Service and Department of the Interior have not specified precise staffing targets, Moore has mentioned that “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/14/us-forest-service-wildfire-fighters-low-pay">some crews have roughly half the staff they need</a>.”</p>
<p>A recent Government Accountability Office report found that low wages and poor work-life balance, among other challenges, were <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105517">barriers commonly cited</a> by federal firefighting employees. The government boosted firefighters’ pay in 2021, but that increase is set to expire <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/inside-fs/delivering-mission/excel/firefighter-pay">unless Congress votes</a> to make it permanent. So far, firefighters have kept the same level of pay each time Congress pushed back acting on the 2024 budget, but it’s a precarious position.</p>
<p>The agency has started many initiatives to recruit and retain permanent employees, but it is too early to assess the results. A recent study involving one of us, Jude Bayham, found that highly qualified firefighters were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103115">more likely to remain</a> with the agency after active seasons, during which they earn more money.</p>
<h2>Everyone has a role in fire protection</h2>
<p>Even with optimal funding and staffing, the firefighting agencies cannot protect every area from wildfire. Some of the defensive work will have to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/living-with-wildfire-how-to-protect-more-homes-as-fire-risk-rises-in-a-warming-climate-208652">done by residents</a> in high-risk areas.</p>
<p>Homeowners can reduce the fire risk to their own properties by <a href="https://csfs.colostate.edu/wildfire-mitigation/protect-your-home-property-from-wildfire/">following defensible space recommendations</a>. </p>
<p>These include keeping flammable vegetation away from buildings and reducing other fire hazards such as wood shingles, flammable debris in yards and pine needles in gutters. People should also pay attention to burn bans and avoid risky activities, such as leaving campfires unattended, setting off fireworks and using equipment that can spark fires on hot, dry, windy days.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VusWu3Y4cgY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Clearing away dead trees and brush within 100 feet of homes can help reduce fire risk.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The federal government and states have increased funds to help people reduce wildfire hazards on their property. The <a href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/secretary-haaland-announces-nearly-50-million-wildfire-mitigation-and-resilience">Bipartisan Infrastructure Law</a> of 2021 included millions of dollars to support fire prevention on <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/news/releases/usda-announces-new-round-of-investments-in-wildfire-protection-cwdg">state, tribal and private lands</a>. Several <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/what-we-do/grants/wildfire-prevention-grants">states also have programs</a>, such as Colorado’s Forest Restoration and Wildfire Risk Mitigation Grant Program to support <a href="https://csfs.colostate.edu/grants/forest-restoration-wildfire-risk-mitigation/">community investment in wildfire mitigation</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-year-the-west-was-burning-how-the-2020-wildfire-season-got-so-extreme-148804">Recent disastrous wildfire seasons</a> have shown how important it is to manage the fire risk. Consistent funding is crucial, and homeowners can help by taking defensive action to reduce wildfire risk on their property.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223647/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camille Stevens-Rumann receives funding from US Forest Service, the Bureau of Land Management, and the US department of Agriculture. She used to work for the US Forest Service and works closely with Federal, State, and non-profit organizations that help manage forests across the western US</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jude Bayham receives funding from the United States Forest Service. He is on the Protect Our Winters Science Alliance. </span></em></p>A hot, dry summer on the heels of a wet winter raises the risk of wildfires.Camille Stevens-Rumann, Associate Professor of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State UniversityJude Bayham, Associate Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230582024-02-08T20:48:00Z2024-02-08T20:48:00Z‘Look for a reversal in a fairly short period of time’ − former federal judge expects Supreme Court will keep Trump on Colorado ballot<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574481/original/file-20240208-22-to0w8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C5714%2C3806&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Even a day before the oral arguments, a line had formed outside the Supreme Court to sit in on the court's session.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024TrumpInsurrectionAmendment/2e5e06595e7441d3a9bb5c465301f565/photo">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>To get the rare perspective of a former federal judge on the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcript/2023">oral arguments at the Supreme Court</a>, The Conversation U.S. spoke with John E. Jones III. He is the president of Dickinson College and a <a href="https://www.dickinson.edu/homepage/1494/dickinson_college_president">retired federal judge</a> appointed by President George W. Bush and confirmed unanimously by the U.S. Senate in 2002. The case is about former President Donald Trump’s claim that he should be allowed on the presidential ballot in Colorado – and other states – because the language of the 14th Amendment does not apply to him.</em></p>
<p><em>During his time on the bench, Jones issued landmark decisions in high-profile cases, including a 2005 ruling that <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20051221144316/http:/www.pamd.uscourts.gov/kitzmiller/kitzmiller_342.pdf">teaching intelligent design in science classes is unconstitutional</a>. Jones also issued a 2014 ruling <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/225260457/1-13-cv-01861-Pennsylvania-Decision">legalizing same-sex marriage in Pennsylvania</a>, which preceded the U.S. Supreme Court decision reaching the same conclusion for the nation as a whole one year later.</em></p>
<p><strong>What’s your overall view of how things went this morning?</strong></p>
<p>I think it’s clear they’re going to reverse the <a href="https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/Supreme_Court/Opinions/2023/23SA300.pdf">Colorado Supreme Court</a>. There’s no question in my mind. I would look for a reversal in a fairly short period of time. The surprise may be that some of the more liberal justices could join the majority. I would look for an overwhelming majority to reverse. I think you could potentially see some concurring opinions, although I think Chief Justice John Roberts will try to wrap it into one opinion.</p>
<p>There are a lot of parts to the arguments. You could have a justice who concurs in the result but for different reasons. But I think they will recognize that the more uniform they are on this, the better they’ll be. </p>
<p>There could be dissents, but in the end I just didn’t think that they were buying Colorado lawyer Jason Murray’s arguments that each state has the power to judge for itself whether Trump’s conduct before, on and after Jan. 6, 2021, constituted insurrection, and that if it did, they can independently evaluate whether Trump is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-14th-amendment-bars-trump-from-office-a-constitutional-law-scholar-explains-principle-behind-colorado-supreme-court-ruling-219763">ineligible to hold office</a> because of the 14th Amendment. I think there is the possibility of a unanimous opinion. I’m not going to be that bold, but Murray had a tough day.</p>
<p>Murray clerked for Justice Neil Gorsuch when he was on the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals and also clerked for Justice Elena Kagan on the Supreme Court. Former clerks are part of judges’ extended family. But sometimes judges and justices will bend over backwards to really nail their clerks, just to show that they’re not getting any kind of special treatment. I thought they were pretty rough on Murray today. <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2023/23-719_feah.pdf#page=80">Gorsuch really pounded him</a> – and he and Gorsuch probably have a very abiding relationship.</p>
<p><strong>What can we learn about how the justices are thinking about the case?</strong></p>
<p>There’s an old adage that you shouldn’t necessarily predict a result based on questions at oral argument. But it depends. Sometimes, judges and justices are intentionally provocative with their questions – they don’t necessarily signal their mindset or where they’re going. Other times they’re more transparent. </p>
<p>I thought today <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2023/23-719_feah.pdf">the questions</a> were really indicative of the perspectives of the questioners.</p>
<p>There’s a real problem to the position of the voters in Colorado seeking to get Trump off the ballot: If the decision is affirmed, you have the potential to have 50 different states all conducting some type of proceeding for which there is no template whatsoever and coming up with disparate results. </p>
<p>That creates different records in different places, which comes down to a due process argument – about the due process afforded to Trump and what mechanism he may have when his ability to get on the ballot is challenged.</p>
<p>The justices are afraid of future cases, where somebody tries to bump somebody off the ballot – even for political reasons or for no reason at all. There’s no standard for adjudicating this. That’s a problem. The prospect of retaliatory actions was talked about, and in this partisan political climate you could see somebody try to knock Joe Biden off the ballot. Then you’d have a court struggling without a standard, trying to figure out what, if anything, Biden did that disqualifies him.</p>
<p>On the side of Colorado, the argument is intertwining Section 3 of the 14th Amendment and the <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/article-2/#article-2-section-1-clause-2">electors clause of the U.S. Constitution</a>, which says that states have the ability to set certain rules and regulations for the conduct of elections underneath Congress’ power to regulate national elections.</p>
<p>They’re saying that the states have the power to decide whether to disqualify someone under their powers in the electors clause. I think that’s a very tough argument to make because of the lack of uniformity. The justices appear concerned about the sheer chaos that would stem from 50 different states adjudicating this question. </p>
<p><strong>The Colorado solicitor general, Shannon Stevenson, said 50 states operating separately is a positive feature of the Constitution’s structure.</strong></p>
<p>During oral arguments they talked about the 1994 case <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1994/93-1456">U.S. Term Limits v. Thornton</a>. It was a case that involved 20-plus states that had enacted term limits for members of Congress. Of course, it got challenged up to the Supreme Court, and in the Constitution there’s no amendment that imposes term limits. What that ruling said was that states can’t add conditions for holding public office that are not within the text of the Constitution. It’s a very technical argument but not a bad argument. </p>
<p><strong>What are your observations about the 14th Amendment as it applies to this case?</strong></p>
<p>This was a poorly written section. It was a reactionary section that was essentially enacted, as stated by the justices, as a compromise that made no one particularly happy. It’s vague.</p>
<p>It doesn’t enumerate the president in the list of people it covers – you can see that. So does it cover the president when it talks about people who are an “<a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-14/">officer of the United States</a>” or who holds an “office … under the United States”? Then we play this semantical game. I don’t find that particularly availing, though I think you could fit the president into the rubric.</p>
<p>I think it is a very easy argument to make that Trump was an insurrectionist. But there are no standards. Where’s the due process? </p>
<p>There’s an element of trying to torture a very poorly written section down into something that fits the situation in 2024. That creates enormous headaches for lawyers and judges and justices. It’s just not clear what the amendment means. And when there’s unclarity like that, that makes for a tough go for a justice.</p>
<p>The way Kagan, for example, may write an opinion is to really lean on the fact that it was an insurrection, but it’s a bad section of the Constitution here. She might say our eyes don’t deceive and we know what we saw on Jan. 6, 2021, but there has to be a process to this.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John E. Jones III does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A retired federal judge examines the oral arguments the Supreme Court heard on a case in which Colorado has blocked former President Donald Trump from the ballot.John E. Jones III, President, Dickinson CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223542024-02-06T13:31:04Z2024-02-06T13:31:04ZSupreme Court heads into uncharted, dangerous territory as it considers Trump insurrection case<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573195/original/file-20240203-27-tu4bta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C12%2C8449%2C4758&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. Supreme Court.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/supreme-court-royalty-free-image/1500767786?phrase=U.S.+Supreme+court&adppopup=true">Larry Crain/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Can Colorado disqualify former President Trump <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2023/23-719">from the state’s primary ballot</a>? That’s the momentous question the U.S. Supreme Court will consider in <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/01/supreme-court-agrees-to-hear-trump-plea-to-remain-on-colorado-ballot/">Trump v. Anderson</a>, a case being argued before the justices on Feb. 8, 2024.</p>
<p>The case involves the justices wading into the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2023/12/20/insurrection-14th-amendment-history-trump/">unfamiliar waters</a> of the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause. Legal experts on <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/29/politics/luttig-conway-supreme-court-trump-insurrection/index.html">both sides</a> of the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-719/298014/20240118120731316_23-719%20Amicus%20Brief%20of%20U.S.%20Senator%20Ted%20Cruz.pdf">political aisle</a> filed amicus briefs to plead with the justices to either allow Trump to stay on the ballot or keep him off it. </p>
<p>As scholars who <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/709913">study</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0098261X.2022.2124897">how the federal judiciary</a> is changing, we believe that Trump’s unprecedented relationship with the judiciary makes this case important in ways that go beyond the legality of his ballot removal. One dark shadow hanging over this case is that the justices’ decision could affect the court’s legitimacy, too.</p>
<p>Public support for the court and its overall legitimacy are already at <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/07/21/favorable-views-of-supreme-court-fall-to-historic-low/">all-time lows</a>. Part of this results from the current polarization of the electorate. That polarization has led people to shift their support for the court <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912920950482">based on their perceptions of the court’s partisan leanings</a>. Trump’s efforts to politicize the court may also contribute to these negative feelings.</p>
<p>The justices have done many things to hurt the court’s legitimacy, too, from <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4206986">upending the legal status quo</a> on issues such as abortion to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2023/10/31/senate-democrats-plan-to-supoena-gop-megadonors-over-reported-undisclosed-gifts-to-supreme-court-justices/?sh=1655532712b5">accepting money and luxury vacations from people whose interests have appeared in cases before the court</a>. </p>
<p>No matter how hard the justices <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-america-donald-trump-us-news-ap-top-news-immigration-c4b34f9639e141069c08cf1e3deb6b84">work to head off</a> negative perceptions of the court, they have been unsuccessful at restoring their institution’s legitimacy.</p>
<p>And now, against this backdrop of vitriol and low support, the court must answer a question that has never been asked: Does Section 3 of the 14th Amendment mean Colorado can keep Trump off the ballot? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a blue blazer, blue striped tie and white shirt in front of an American flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump’s eligibility to be on state ballots as a presidential candidate is being considered by the U.S. Supreme Court.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-and-former-u-s-president-news-photo/1965961432?adppopup=true">David Becker/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘My judges’</h2>
<p>Trump’s relationship with the federal judiciary – both the judges who serve in the federal judiciary and the broader legal institution itself – differs from that of his predecessors. He talks about the court system not as an independent branch of government but as a political institution whose positions <a href="https://time.com/4266700/donald-trump-supreme-court-nominations/">should align</a> with his own. </p>
<p>In his Jan. 6, 2021, speech before the attack on the U.S. Capitol, Trump sounded miffed at the three justices he had nominated to the Supreme Court. They were ruling against him now, he said, perhaps to counter the perception that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/21/us/politics/trump-supreme-court.html">“they’re my puppets.”</a> </p>
<p>Modern presidents have always sought to mold the judiciary by selecting <a href="https://www.upress.virginia.edu/title/3596/">justices whose records</a> align with the nominating president’s <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300080735/picking-federal-judges/">political preferences</a>. But historically, presidents were careful to discuss the courts in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/curbing-the-court/97B607067A2E7392C2223EF7E642FC7A">legalistic terms</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2508.00207">avoid politicizing the judiciary</a>.</p>
<p>Trump flouted those norms. In an unusual move, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/19/us/politics/donald-trump-supreme-court-nominees.html">he released a list</a> of potential Supreme Court nominees while campaigning for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination, touting the <a href="https://time.com/4266700/donald-trump-supreme-court-nominations/">conservative credentials</a> of the names on his list. </p>
<p>Once elected, he asked <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221109534">members of the Federalist Society</a>, a group dedicated to putting conservative judges on the bench, to help him select nominees, including the three justices he eventually put on the Supreme Court.</p>
<p>Once the Senate confirmed his nominees to the Supreme Court, Trump referred to Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett as <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/nine-black-robes-joan-biskupic?variant=40723951517730">“my” judges</a>. </p>
<p>And as his legal cases have made their way through the courts, he suggested that judges he nominated at any level – district, circuit or for the Supreme Court – owed him favorable rulings because he gave them their seats. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/05/2-key-points-trumps-lawyer-suggesting-justice-kavanaugh-owes-trump/">One of Trump’s lawyers in the Colorado ballot case</a> now before the Supreme Court suggested in January 2023 that “people like Kavanaugh who the president fought for, who the president went through hell to get into place, he’ll step up.”</p>
<p>And Trump has questioned the credentials of most judges who have ruled against him, whether it’s in response to cases <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-america-donald-trump-us-news-ap-top-news-immigration-c4b34f9639e141069c08cf1e3deb6b84">involving his presidential policies</a> or those involving his <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111848593080388710">personal conduct</a>, especially when Democrats nominated those judges. When judges have refused to bend to his will, Trump has pushed back, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/his-own-words-presidents-attacks-courts">lambasting the judges</a> as biased and saying they were <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1065581119242940416">“out of control”</a> and the court system was <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/951094078661414912">“broken and unfair.”</a> He used social media to call the federal judge presiding over his Jan. 6 prosecution a <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/judge-reinstates-trump-gag-order-jan-6-case/story?id=104466343">“TRUE TRUMP HATER.”</a> </p>
<h2>Increased criticism, decreased legitimacy</h2>
<p>Framing the Supreme Court as a political institution beholden to the president diminishes the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X211064299">court’s legitimacy in the eyes of the public</a>. Research shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912917750278">people’s support for the court decreases</a> when a politician they like criticizes it. </p>
<p>Some people also struggle to believe that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12599">judges who do not look or think like them</a> are neutral arbiters of the law, so Trump’s comments potentially inflame those beliefs and increase people’s wariness of the judiciary. </p>
<p>Beyond that, Trump constantly tries to make the point that the entire judicial nominating process is political, from identifying judges by which president nominated them – for example, an <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/21/supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts-calls-out-trump-for-his-attack-on-a-judge-1011203%22%22">“Obama judge”</a> or a <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-judges-lawsuits_n_5db1d70ee4b03285e87ba2fd%22%22">“Trump judge”</a> – to his leaning on the justices he put on the court. This has the broader effect of framing the Supreme Court as a political rather than legal institution. And that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00616.x">dramatically decreases its legitimacy</a>. </p>
<p>Put simply, people support the court less when politicians attack it, and Trump frequently attacks the judiciary. </p>
<h2>Maintaining authority</h2>
<p>Why care about legitimacy? </p>
<p>Because <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed78.asp">unlike the president or members of Congress</a>, who can enforce their own laws and policies – as long as they abide by the Constitution – the Supreme Court depends on other institutions for enforcement of its opinions. The court lacks the literal force or money to enforce its decisions.</p>
<p>Consider the Supreme Court’s famous 1954 ruling in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1940-1955/347us483">Brown v. Board of Education</a>, which ordered the end of school segregation. That ruling did not get enforced in most of the South <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12069">until the president and Congress passed laws</a> that punished schools that refused to integrate.</p>
<p>Those institutions enforce Supreme Court decisions only because the public believes the court is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5907.00025">legitimate legal institution</a> with the authority to make decisions about the law and get them enforced. </p>
<p>This belief in judicial authority stems from several different sources, including <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781400830602/html">elementary education</a> on democratic values, the justices’ <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/T/The-Limits-of-Legitimacy2">concerted efforts</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912918801563">to avoid</a> all but the most favorable media attention, their focus on showing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00616.x">the principled nature</a> of their decision-making process, their aim to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/jlc.2023.15">mitigate negative public sentiment</a> and even their decision to separate themselves by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/lasr.12104">wearing robes to political events</a>. </p>
<p>To be sure, people are not naive about the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-214229">political nature of Supreme Court decision-making</a>. But as long as the justices’ decision-making appears principled, research has found that the court <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5893.2011.00432.x">remains legitimate</a> to the public, even if the court issues a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-110413-030546">decision the public dislikes</a>.</p>
<p>Typically, the justices <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691136332/the-politics-of-precedent-on-the-us-supreme-court">lean on precedent</a> to defend their rulings, but the justices cannot do so in the Trump Colorado ballot case. <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/4435677-the-supreme-court-cant-punt-on-trumps-disqualification-without-threatening-the-constitution/">No precedent exists</a>. </p>
<p>Combined with the court’s low popular support, moving into uncharted legal territory means the justices face, for the first time in a while, the possibility that people <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/26/1200906844/supreme-court-alabama-voting-case">might defy</a> or <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/border-standoff-between-texas-feds-intensifies-as-governor-defies-supreme-court-ruling">ignore their rulings</a>. In fact, Sen. J.D. Vance, a Republican from Ohio, suggested in a recent interview that the <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6346242779112">president could defy the Supreme Court</a>. </p>
<p>Consequently, while the justices’ decision will be important for constitutional and democratic reasons, the public’s response to the ruling will be just as important for democracy and the rule of law in the U.S.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With their upcoming decision concerning whether Donald Trump can appear on the Colorado ballot, Supreme Court justices face the possibility that the ruling could be ignored or defied by the public.Jessica A. Schoenherr, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of South CarolinaJonathan M. King, Assistant Professor of Political Science, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212092024-02-04T19:09:03Z2024-02-04T19:09:03ZShould Donald Trump be disqualified from state ballots in presidential election? Here’s how the US Supreme Court might rule<p>The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments this week in former President
Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-719.html">appeal</a> against the decision to exclude him from the ballot in the Colorado Republican primary for this year’s presidential election.</p>
<p>The Colorado Supreme Court <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-insurrection-14th-amendment-2024-colorado-d16dd8f354eeaf450558378c65fd79a2">ruled</a> in December that Trump was disqualified from holding the office of president under <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/amendment-14/section-3/">Section 3 of the 14th Amendment</a> to the Constitution because he engaged in an insurrection on January 6, 2021.</p>
<p>Because the Republican primaries have already begun (Coloradoans vote on March 5) and the US Supreme Court’s current term ends on June 30, the nine justices have very little time to consider such a momentous dispute with so many constitutional issues to be clarified.</p>
<p>So, what will happen this week and how might the court rule?</p>
<h2>How does the Supreme Court operate?</h2>
<p>Each side is usually allotted 30 minutes to present their case in oral arguments, but the lawyers are almost always interrupted by questions from the justices. The questioning can provide clues as to how the justices might be leaning. </p>
<p>The justices then meet in private to discuss the case and form a preliminary opinion. The chief justice, John Roberts, has the power to determine which of the justices will draft the written opinion, but only if he is in the majority. If not, that power transfers to the next most senior justice in the majority. </p>
<p>The draft opinion will be circulated to the other justices and is subject to their suggestions and possible alterations. This is almost a political exercise because the justice writing the opinion needs to get four other justices to sign the draft, or, at least, support the decision. </p>
<p>He or she would also want to minimise the number of dissenting or concurring opinions that would, inevitably, undermine the force of the court’s majority opinion. It is an exercise in coalition-building to forge that majority, which is never certain until this final stage of the process.</p>
<h2>What are the constitutional issues?</h2>
<p>The justices face a seemingly intractable choice between two fundamental values: defending the rule of law and protecting democracy.</p>
<p>For most of its life, the <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/amendment-14/section-3/">insurrection clause</a> has been regarded by constitutional scholars as of historical interest only and consequently ignored. </p>
<p>Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-defends-himself-to-the-supreme-court-saying-he-called-for-peace-patriotism-respect-for-law-and-order-on-jan-6-and-is-not-an-insurrectionist-221396">appeal</a> raised three major constitutional questions the Supreme Court will have to decide: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>whether Section 3 applies to Trump as a sitting president</p></li>
<li><p>what it takes to determine if someone is guilty of insurrection </p></li>
<li><p>and whether the states have the power to enforce Section 3 without prior approval from Congress.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-defends-himself-to-the-supreme-court-saying-he-called-for-peace-patriotism-respect-for-law-and-order-on-jan-6-and-is-not-an-insurrectionist-221396">Trump defends himself to the Supreme Court, saying he called ‘for peace, patriotism, respect for law and order’ on Jan. 6 and is not an insurrectionist</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>On the first issue, Trump believes Section 3 doesn’t apply to him because it doesn’t specifically refer to the president or the presidential oath. He also claims the president is not an “officer of the United States”, as <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/amendment-14/section-3/">the clause reads</a>. </p>
<p>In his petition, Trump offers several unconvincing reasons why this is so and it will probably be a difficult argument for his lawyers to sustain. As the Colorado Supreme Court said pointedly in its judgement, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Constitution refers to the presidency as an “office” 25 times.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The second issue is whether the Colorado court erred in grounding its judgement on the fact Trump had been guilty of insurrection (based on the House Select Committee <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-the-final-report-from-the-jan-6-committee">report</a>). One of the dissenting justices argued that Trump was entitled to the “due process of law” before being disqualified from the ballot.</p>
<p>So far, Trump has not been found guilty of insurrection, nor is he facing any specific charges of insurrection in the court cases under way. </p>
<p>The respondents seeking to remove Trump from the ballot point to the findings of the trial court in Colorado detailing his actions on January 6 as the central issue in the case. They claim Trump has failed to show why the trial court was wrong. </p>
<p>In effect, then, they are asking the Supreme Court to validate the charge that Trump engaged in an insurrection.</p>
<p>The third major issue is whether Section 3 is self-executing, as the Colorado Supreme Court decided. This means the Constitution does not require legislation by Congress in order to disqualify a candidate for office under Section 3.</p>
<p>The US Supreme Court will have to decide whether Congress <em>must legitimise</em> any action under Section 3, or whether Congress merely has the power to invoke the insurrection ban should no other body do so.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1752874596733206683"}"></div></p>
<h2>How will the court likely respond?</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court has a solid six-to-three conservative majority, with three of the conservative justices nominated by Trump. But there isn’t a clear “liberal” or “conservative” position on the Colorado court’s opinion. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/donald-trump-constitutionally-prohibited-presidency/675048/">Liberal and conservative</a> lawyers alike have provided legal rationales for excluding Trump’s candidacy based on the 14th Amendment. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1692908002473291878"}"></div></p>
<p>The last time the Supreme Court entangled itself in a presidential election – the <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/531/98/">Bush v. Gore decision</a> in 2001 – it was a judicial dog’s breakfast. The ruling was <a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Supreme-Injustice-Court-Hijacked-Election/dp/0195158075">widely seen</a> as a political decision reflecting the partisan preferences of the five conservative justices in the majority.</p>
<p>In a blistering dissenting opinion, Justice John Paul Stevens <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2019/12/29/john-paul-stevens-the-pessimist-of-the-supreme-court-089590">wrote</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Although we may never know with complete certainty the identity of the winner of this year’s presidential election, the identity of the loser is perfectly clear. It is the nation’s confidence in the judge as an impartial guardian of the rule of law.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The court should be mindful of the public and legal backlash to that decision and its current <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/22/supreme-court-conservatives-alito-roberts/">low level of public approval</a>. The court’s embarrassing <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-code-of-conduct-rcna124951">ethical problems</a> and unpopular decisions, such as the overturning of Roe v. Wade, have already clouded its legitimacy and reputation.</p>
<p>Whatever its decision, the court risks once again being seen as politically partisan. If it overturns the Colorado decision, it saves Trump’s political ambitions. If it upholds the decision and bars Trump from the ballot, it could trigger protests from Trump supporters, as Trump <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/10/donald-trump-bedlam-criminal-cases">has already intimated</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-supreme-court-decision-on-trump-colorado-ballot-case-monumental-for-democracy-itself-not-just-2024-presidential-election-220643">US Supreme Court decision on Trump-Colorado ballot case 'monumental' for democracy itself, not just 2024 presidential election</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The general view among constitutional commentators is the Supreme Court would probably not want to give 50 different states and the District of Columbia the freedom to decide who is qualified or disqualified to be president. This could lead to Trump appearing on the ballot in some states, but not others.</p>
<p>If so, it would need to make the Colorado decision apply to all states, or craft an opinion that overturns the Colorado decision without being seen as overtly pro-Trump. It would have to seek some mid-point between upholding the rule of law (some would argue the Colorado decision does that very effectively) and permitting people to be able to vote for the candidate of their choice.</p>
<p>There’s not much legal precedent to guide the court in resolving the appeal. And the liberal-conservative divide on the court is probably not going to be a reliable predictor of the outcome. How the court settles this dispute is anyone’s guess.</p>
<p>Given the current fragile state of American democracy, the country can ill-afford a repeat of Bush v. Gore.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221209/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Hart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whatever its decision, the court risks once again being seen as politically partisan.John Hart, Emeritus Faculty, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223272024-02-01T13:31:50Z2024-02-01T13:31:50ZSupreme Court word-count limits for lawyers, explained in 1,026 words<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572440/original/file-20240131-23-oym8mi.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C10%2C7030%2C4976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lawyers write too much. That's why the Supreme Court and other U.S. courts impose word limits on them.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/busy-businessman-working-on-computer-with-royalty-free-illustration/1177158970?phrase=pile+of+paper&adppopup=true">siraanamwong/ iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dispute over former President Donald Trump’s eligibility to appear on the Colorado ballot will come to a head on Feb. 8, 2024, when the U.S. Supreme Court holds oral arguments in the case. <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-719.html">Dozens of individuals and organizations have weighed in</a> by filing what are called “amicus curiae” – friend of the court – briefs. <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/amicus_curiae">These briefs</a> can give judges different perspectives on a case than the litigants’ briefs do. </p>
<p>When each amicus brief – or any other kind of brief – is filed, the court requires that a separate document be filed along with it: a “certificate of word count,” in which the filer promises that the brief does not exceed the word count <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/supct/rule_33">allowed by Supreme Court rule</a>. Depending on the circumstances, the Supreme Court’s limits range from 6,000 to 13,000 words, or about <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frap/rule_32">20 to 50 pages</a>.</p>
<p>Why is compliance with this word-count requirement so important to the Supreme Court and to many other U.S. courts that it must be attested to in a separate, signed certificate?</p>
<p>Maybe because many lawyers, when given the chance, will write as much as they can. </p>
<p>They forget, as Justice Clarence Thomas put it <a href="https://youtu.be/FpR3wfHTMR0?si=ZA4RmJcoI7noYq3y">in a 2007 interview with author Bryan Garner</a>, that judges are “really busy,” and what that particular lawyer wrote is “not the most important thing” their judge will read that day.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FpR3wfHTMR0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Justice Clarence Thomas gives writing advice to lawyers about what a judge wants to read.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a law professor who, for almost two decades, <a href="https://lawweb.colorado.edu/profiles/profile.jsp?id=274">has studied what judges find persuasive</a>, I know that Thomas’ view is widely shared. And I also know that lawyers spend a lot of energy – and words – trying to evade limits. These efforts have even extended to arguing in court, with citations to renowned typographical experts, about the precise definition and measure of what constitutes “double-spaced.”</p>
<h2>‘Too long, too long, too long’</h2>
<p>From the judge’s perspective, the purpose of word limits is to invite lawyers to make their arguments leaner and more focused in order to conserve judges’ attention. </p>
<p>Pennsylvania-based Chief Judge Ruggero J. Aldisert <a href="https://law.olemiss.edu/assets/Aldisert75-3.pdf">summarized the views of dozens of other chief judges</a> by noting that the first problem with briefs is that they’re “too long, too long, too long.” </p>
<p>And in 2012, when a lawyer in a Florida case asked Judge Steven Merryday for permission to submit a brief that would have exceeded his court’s limits, the judge not only rejected the request but <a href="https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/8274281/24/belli-v-hedden-enterprises-inc/">line-edited the first paragraph</a> of the proposed filing − paring it down from 176 words to just 46.</p>
<p>But some attorneys instead read word-limit certifications as an effort to constrain the perceived persuasive power of extra-long briefs rather than signaling the outer edge of what judges will read. The number becomes a goal rather than a maximum. </p>
<p>And so, when one side appears to write past that limit, the other side calls foul and files an objection in court.</p>
<p>In these objections, a lawyer usually asks the court two questions: First, to determine that the filing whose length was questioned really did exceed the word or page limit. Despite modern technology and electronic filing, some courts still impose page limits. Second, the court is asked to do something about that violation, such as require the party to refile a shorter version or, sometimes, to instead allow the complaining party extra space as well. Some even ask the court to sanction the first party for their misconduct. </p>
<p>Of course, the other lawyer writes back with arguments and requests of their own.</p>
<p>So, our already busy judge now has even more to read and more decisions to make. California-based Judge Jesus Bernal was so put off by the “sheer audacity” of an attorney complaining about “minor formatting issues” in the other party’s brief that he <a href="https://abovethelaw.com/uploads/2023/11/Sanctions.pdf">sanctioned the complaining attorney</a>, requiring that attorney to pay the other side’s fees and costs.</p>
<h2>Arguing over spaces</h2>
<p>One subset of these conflicts are fights over the meaning of “double-spaced.” The most recent example, from November 2023, arose in Tennessee before U.S. District Judge Sheryl Lipman.</p>
<p>One side noticed that the other side had filed a brief that seemed to have more lines of text per page than their own briefs contained. It turned out that those lawyers had spaced their lines of text 24 points apart – <a href="https://practicaltypography.com/point-size.html">a “point” is 1/72 of an inch</a> – rather than closer to 28 points, <a href="https://abovethelaw.com/uploads/2023/11/Motion.pdf">which the complaining lawyers asserted</a> was the measure in “all widely-used word processing programs” using the “double-space” setting. </p>
<p>Thus, to “ensure a level playing field,” they asked Judge Lipman to require the other side to put more space between lines of text in future filings.</p>
<p>The 24-point lawyers responded, marshaling <a href="https://abovethelaw.com/uploads/2023/11/response.pdf">58 pages of argument and exhibits</a> in support of their spacing. </p>
<p>They began by explaining that, in typography, double-spacing “has an objective meaning,” which is “double the size of the typeface font.” To prove that their writing met this standard, they measured it with a <a href="https://www.schaedlerprecision.com/products.htm">specialized typographic ruler</a> called a pica pole.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572240/original/file-20240130-25-ta6jy6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A text excerpt with a measuring pole laid on it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572240/original/file-20240130-25-ta6jy6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572240/original/file-20240130-25-ta6jy6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572240/original/file-20240130-25-ta6jy6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572240/original/file-20240130-25-ta6jy6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572240/original/file-20240130-25-ta6jy6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572240/original/file-20240130-25-ta6jy6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/572240/original/file-20240130-25-ta6jy6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An exhibit in a legal filing using a pica pole to make a point about proper double-spacing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://abovethelaw.com/uploads/2023/11/response.pdf">Jessica Jones, et al., Plaintiffs, v. Varsity Brands, LLC, et al</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As for the propriety of using that definition in legal briefs, they cited the <a href="https://typographyforlawyers.com/foreword.html">leading authority in the field</a>: Matthew Butterick, whose book “Typography for Lawyers” <a href="https://typographyforlawyers.com/line-spacing.html">has a whole section on line spacing</a>. </p>
<p>Not yet content, they went further, attaching – after their six exhibits – a written declaration from Butterick himself. In it, he agreed that the complained-about brief was “definitely double-spaced,” while conceding that line spacing is “often a source of confusion for lawyers.”</p>
<p>The source of this confusion? Software defaults. </p>
<p>Counterintuitively, when typing in 12-point font in a program such as Microsoft Word, choosing the “double-spaced” option doesn’t set the lines 24 points apart. Instead, the program chooses to space lines a bit more than that, in an amount that varies both by which version of Word one is using and by which font.</p>
<p>Thus, the typographic definition is not only more accurate but also more reliable. And it doesn’t require a litigant to license a particular word processing program to ensure compliance.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abajournal.com/files/LipmanDouble-spaceopinion.pdf">Judge Lipman basically agreed</a> and rejected the complaining attorneys’ invitation to forbid 24-point spacing. </p>
<p>But she reminded the lawyers that “the last thing any party needs is more words on a page. The length of an argument is no guarantee of its success, and indeed could result in more confusion, not clarity.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222327/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I know Matthew Butterick, the expert mentioned in the article. I've collaborated with him, served with him on a panel at an academic conference, and nominated him for an award he received in 2012.</span></em></p>Lawyers submitting briefs to the Supreme Court in the Trump Colorado ballot case must file a ‘certificate of word count.’ Why? As one judge put it, lawyers’ briefs are ‘too long, too long, too long.’Derek H. Kiernan-Johnson, Teaching Professor of Law, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2198972024-01-29T13:36:54Z2024-01-29T13:36:54ZNonprofit hospitals have an obligation to help their communities, but the people who live nearby may see little benefit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571244/original/file-20240124-27-pprmzs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4708%2C3016&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scholars interviewed people living near the University of Colorado Hospital to assess whether it's a good neighbor.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/university-of-colorado-hospital-news-photo/586104222?adppopup=true">John Greim/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Does living near a hospital make you more likely to get the health care you need?</p>
<p>Even though the <a href="https://www.irs.gov/charities-non-profits/community-health-needs-assessment-for-charitable-hospital-organizations-section-501r3">federal government requires nonprofit hospitals</a> to regularly assess the health needs of their surrounding communities and publicly post a plan to address those concerns, many people living nearby struggle to get basic health care.</p>
<p>We are a <a href="https://www.ohio.edu/experts/expert/daniel-skinner">political scientist</a> and an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vAgVzVAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">urban sociologist</a> who study how hospitals interact with and shape the communities in which they are located. As we explain in our book, “<a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo206056945.html">The City and the Hospital</a>,” most top-ranked hospitals in the U.S. <a href="https://lowninstitute.org/us-news-best-hospitals-still-falling-short-on-equity/">aren’t doing enough in this regard</a>.</p>
<h2>A paradox for local communities</h2>
<p>Despite living in the shadow of world-class medical facilities, people residing in these communities often have poor health.</p>
<p>We call this the paradox of medically overserved communities.</p>
<p>Many nonprofit hospitals amass <a href="https://www.definitivehc.com/resources/healthcare-insights/top-non-profit-hospitals-net-patient-revenue">revenues in the millions and even billions</a>. This <a href="https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/most-nonprofit-hospitals-and-health-systems-analyzed-had-adequate-or-strong-days-of-cash-on-hand-in-2022-though-about-one-in-ten-did-not/">economic power</a>, coupled with their stated missions to take care of their local community, positions most of them well to benefit the neighborhoods surrounding their campuses.</p>
<p>Urban hospitals tend to be centrally located; residents of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/three-charts-showing-you-poverty-in-u-s-cities-and-metro-areas">these city centers tend to be low income</a>, and many of them are disproportionately Black and Latino. Using census data, we found that the neighborhoods around our case sites were, overall, less white, had lower household incomes, lower property values and greater vacancy rates than the rest of their cities. They also had worse health. </p>
<h2>Worse off in terms of health</h2>
<p>To better understand how hospitals serve local populations, we and our colleague, medical sociologist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gZG5HAQAAAAJ&hl=en">Berkeley Franz</a>, conducted over 200 interviews.</p>
<p>We spoke with local residents, hospital administrators, business owners and health care advocates. Our conversations focused on three American hospitals: the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio, Hartford Hospital in Connecticut and the University of Colorado Hospital in Aurora. Like these three, about <a href="https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals">half of U.S. hospitals are nonprofits</a>.</p>
<p>In all three cities, these neighborhoods had lower rates of health insurance compared with citywide and national averages. And so, when looking at a map, these neighborhoods might appear to have greater access to health care than, for example, those living in rural communities. This is not the case. </p>
<p>We found that Americans residing in a <a href="https://www.census.gov/geographies/reference-maps/2020/geo/2020pl-maps/2020-census-tract.html">census tract</a> next to those three hospitals were actually more likely to be in poorer health than their fellow city dwellers.</p>
<p>We examined 12 key health conditions, including heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol and mental illness. Local residents were faring worse than city averages 64% of the time and worse than national averages 80% of the time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571300/original/file-20240124-21-3mm8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A multiracial group of people fill out their paperwork in the doctor's waiting room." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571300/original/file-20240124-21-3mm8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571300/original/file-20240124-21-3mm8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571300/original/file-20240124-21-3mm8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571300/original/file-20240124-21-3mm8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571300/original/file-20240124-21-3mm8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571300/original/file-20240124-21-3mm8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571300/original/file-20240124-21-3mm8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sometimes low-income people living near prominent hospitals fear getting care at them because of billing concerns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/diverse-people-fill-out-forms-in-doctors-waiting-royalty-free-image/1745157924?phrase=nonprofit+hospitals&adppopup=true">SDI Productions/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vague mandate</h2>
<p>Nonprofit hospitals get <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-106777.pdf">tax exemptions</a> because the Internal Revenue Service recognizes that the promotion of health is a <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106777">charitable mission that serves the public good</a>. Because for-profit hospitals pay all applicable taxes, they are <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2022.01542">not subject to these IRS requirements</a>.</p>
<p>Nonprofit hospitals <a href="https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/the-estimated-value-of-tax-exemption-for-nonprofit-hospitals-was-about-28-billion-in-2020/">save billions every year</a> in federal, state and local taxes. But they are required to spend some of their money to provide what the government calls “<a href="https://nchh.org/tools-and-data/financing-and-funding/healthcare-financing/hospital-community-benefits/">community benefit</a>.”</p>
<p>How much should these hospitals spend?</p>
<p>Until now, the authorities have not specified an amount or percentage of a hospital’s revenues or profits. The <a href="https://www.irs.gov/charities-non-profits/charitable-hospitals-general-requirements-for-tax-exemption-under-section-501c3">IRS test for community benefit</a> is vague. It requires that hospitals make “investments” that are “broad enough to benefit the community” and must “serve a public rather than a private interest.”</p>
<p>Although <a href="https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/hospital-charity-care-how-it-works-and-why-it-matters/">providing charity care</a> isn’t the only contribution hospitals make to their communities, it’s an important one. And in 2020, when the question was last looked at closely, nonprofit hospitals’ charity care totaled US$16 billion – during a year <a href="https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/the-estimated-value-of-tax-exemption-for-nonprofit-hospitals-was-about-28-billion-in-2020/">when they got $28.1 billion in tax breaks</a>.</p>
<p>Some hospitals do little to nothing to meet this goal. The U.S. Government Accountability Office, a government watchdog, found 30 nonprofit hospitals that got tax breaks in 2016 <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106777">despite reporting no spending on community benefits</a> at all.</p>
<p>And although hospitals are required to report their community benefit activities to the IRS every three years, the government agency “was unable to provide evidence that it did so because it did not have a well-documented process to ensure those activities were being reviewed,” the GAO said in 2023.</p>
<h2>Community benefit</h2>
<p>People living near hospitals complained, as you might expect, about blaring sirens, helicopters and traffic. We also heard confusion over hospitals’ responsibilities toward their local community. </p>
<p>Local residents often told us they expected more from hospitals than other neighborhood institutions. As Mansfield Frazier, a Cleveland community advocate, put it, the Cleveland Clinic is “not in the business of making widgets. They’re in the business of promoting health.”</p>
<p>On the other hand, hospital administrators at the three hospitals we studied insist that they spend generously to improve their local communities. One Cleveland Clinic administrator, for example, lamented, “There are some people who think it is our job to repair potholes on their streets.” </p>
<p>In terms of “how well hospitals invest in community health,” a health-focused think tank, <a href="https://lownhospitalsindex.org">the Lown Institute</a>,
graded our three hospitals as <a href="https://lownhospitalsindex.org/rankings/compare/?hospitals=070025,060024,360180">average</a>: Hartford Hospital earned a B grade, and the University of Colorado Hospital and the vaunted Cleveland Clinic both earned a C.</p>
<p>The American Hospital Association has responded to these assessments by <a href="https://www.aha.org/news/blog/2023-04-11-lown-institute-once-again-cherry-picks-data-fit-their-preconceived-notions-about-hospitals">criticizing Lown’s methods and data</a>. Most notably, it accuses Lown of “cherry-picking,” insisting that delivering “life-saving treatments” and educating newly graduated physicians should be considered part of “community benefit.” Such activities are generally not considered part of hospitals’ broader nonprofit obligations because they are paid for the medical care they deliver and the <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10960">physicians they train</a>.</p>
<h2>‘Appetite for land’</h2>
<p>Residents of the three neighborhoods where we conducted our research often noted their local hospital’s prominence. But they also said they felt unwelcome there, using words like “behemoth,” “intimidating” and “imposing” when describing them.</p>
<p>They also told us they were upset when the hospitals purchased neighborhood homes and other buildings and razed them for new facilities. In Hartford, residents pointed to an example of how the hospital bought a family-run funeral home that had catered to the local Latino community and then turned it into a parking lot. </p>
<p>The local community expressed similar concerns about the Cleveland Clinic’s “<a href="https://www.cleveland.com/business/2012/01/historic_churches_near_clevela.html">appetite for land</a>,” which threatened the future of the neighborhood’s historic churches.</p>
<p>We also heard concerns over unfair billing practices that echoed what The New York Times has found – that overcharging patients entitled to free care is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/business/providence-hospital-poor-patients.html">perhaps more common than previously believed</a>.</p>
<p>In all three communities, people told us they avoided their local, prominent hospitals because of fears of the financial burden a visit would yield. Many local residents said they saw less celebrated hospitals that were farther from home as safer options in terms of what they expected to pay.</p>
<h2>An unfulfilled promise</h2>
<p>When Congress passed the <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hpb20160225.954803/">Affordable Care Act in 2010, it reasserted</a> the idea that nonprofit hospitals should provide substantial benefits to communities in exchange for their tax exemptions. That hasn’t happened.</p>
<p>Scholars widely agree there’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.08.17.22278878">no evidence</a> that nonprofit hospitals have generally <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK241401/">done more to benefit their local communities</a> with the ACA than they did without it.</p>
<p>Yet a lack of oversight has meant that hospitals have rarely faced penalties for noncompliance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Standards are vague, and the IRS, which is tasked with enforcement, hasn’t provided much oversight.Jonathan Wynn, Department Chair and Professor of Sociology, UMass AmherstDaniel Skinner, Associate Professor of Health Policy, Ohio UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213962024-01-19T01:58:08Z2024-01-19T01:58:08ZTrump defends himself to the Supreme Court, saying he called ‘for peace, patriotism, respect for law and order’ on Jan. 6 and is not an insurrectionist<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570080/original/file-20240118-23-m47epr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C0%2C5553%2C3718&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S Supreme Court will decide whether former President Donald Trump can be kept off the 2024 presidential ballot. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024TrumpColoradoInsurrectionAmendment/4df6455230514c2b8f930927d90862af/photo?Query=Trump%20colorado%20ballot&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=268&currentItemNo=4">AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Filing late in the day to meet the Jan. 18, 2024, deadline, former President Donald <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-719/298125/20240118171750343_Trump%20v%20Anderson%20Petitioner%20Brief%20on%20the%20Merits.pdf">Trump submitted a brief to the U.S. Supreme Court</a> that asked the justices to overturn the <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24233440-co-supreme-court-ruling-anderson-v-griswold">Colorado Supreme Court’s decision</a> to remove him from that state’s primary ballot. </p>
<p>Norma Anderson, a Republican and former Colorado state lawmaker, and several other plaintiffs had <a href="https://www.citizensforethics.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Anderson-v-Griswold_Verified-Petition_2023.09.06_01.pdf">filed suit in September 2023</a> to keep Trump off the 2024 Colorado ballots. The plaintiffs argued that Trump was disqualified from public office because his “efforts to overturn the 2020 election and interfere with the peaceful transfer of power were part of an insurrection against the Constitution of the United States.” Their arguments were based on <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/amendment-14/section-3/">Section 3 of the 14th Amendment</a> of the Constitution, which bans insurrectionists from holding public office.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24233440-co-supreme-court-ruling-anderson-v-griswold">Colorado Supreme Court issued its ruling</a> in the case, originally known as Anderson v. Griswold, on Dec. 19. The Colorado justices concluded that Trump was disqualified from holding the office of the president because of his actions on Jan. 6, 2021, and they affirmed the trial court’s conclusion that Trump engaged in an insurrection. </p>
<p>“These actions constituted overt, voluntary, and direct participation in the insurrection,” <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24233440-co-supreme-court-ruling-anderson-v-griswold">the court majority wrote</a>. </p>
<p>Trump faces more than a dozen similar <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/01/07/trump-ballot-remove-14th-amendment-map">legal challenges to his candidacy in other states as well</a>, based on Section 3. Many complainants, jurists and constitutional law scholars argue that Trump is disqualified to hold office because he “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the U.S. based on his actions before, during and after the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.</p>
<p>Trump appealed the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, and the justices agreed to consider the case. In his Jan. 18 brief, Trump presented a range of arguments for why the Colorado decision was wrong. Chief among them: He claimed that Section 3 of the 14th Amendment does not apply to the presidency and that he did not engage in an insurrection against the United States. </p>
<p>Describing his actions on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump’s brief says “Calling for peace, patriotism, respect for law and order, and directing the Secretary of Defense to do what needs to be done to protect the American people is in no way inciting or participating in an ‘insurrection.’” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570084/original/file-20240118-27-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a dark winter coat standing on a stage outside in front of a lot of people, with many American flags behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570084/original/file-20240118-27-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570084/original/file-20240118-27-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570084/original/file-20240118-27-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570084/original/file-20240118-27-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570084/original/file-20240118-27-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570084/original/file-20240118-27-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570084/original/file-20240118-27-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump speaks at the ‘Stop The Steal’ Rally on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-speaks-at-the-stop-the-steal-rally-news-photo/1294908917?adppopup=true">Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Officers and insurrections</h2>
<p>Trump’s brief attacks the Colorado Supreme Court’s “dubious interpretation of (S)ection 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment.” He argues that Section 3 does not apply to the presidency because the “President is not an ‘officer of the United States.’” Trump points to <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">other parts of the Constitution</a> that use the term “Officer,” and he argues that an “Officer of the United States” only includes political appointees, such as the Secretary of State, and not anyone who is elected to an office. </p>
<p>There is merit to this argument, but Trump confuses the original intent of the Framers, when the Constitution was initially ratified, with the intent of the <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/drafting-table-mobile/item/amendment-xiv">39th Congress that drafted the 14th Amendment</a> decades after the nation’s founding. Several constitutional law scholars argue that the 39th Congress did intend for Section 3 <a href="https://conservancy.umn.edu/bitstream/handle/11299/221946/02%20Magliocca.pdf">to apply to the presidency</a> because congressional records highlight senators’ and representatives’ specific comments that it should.</p>
<p>Whether Section 3 applies to the presidency is likely the first question that the Supreme Court will have to answer. While Trump also claims that he did not engage in an insurrection, the justices likely will not consider whether he did or not because the court generally does not disturb the factual conclusions of trial courts. </p>
<p>But the justices may have to consider the other legal questions that Trump raises. Trump argues that even if Section 3 applies to the presidency, it cannot be enforced because Congress has not passed a law to enforce it. But <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=3946576">as a constitutional law scholar</a>, I believe that perhaps his strongest argument and the justices’ easiest legal question to answer turns to the plain text of Section 3, which states that it bars insurrectionists and rebels from holding office. It does not say anything about running for office.</p>
<h2>Bullets, not ballots</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Fourteenth-Amendment">The 14th Amendment, ratified in 1868</a>, is considered a “<a href="https://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-resources/essays/reconstruction-amendments-official-documents-social-history">Reconstruction Amendment</a>,” along with the 13th and 15th amendments. Congress and state legislatures ratified the Reconstruction Amendments in the years immediately following the end of the Civil War. Within that context, the drafters of the Reconstruction Amendments sought, among many things, to prevent Confederates from <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-14th-amendment-bars-trump-from-office-a-constitutional-law-scholar-explains-principle-behind-colorado-supreme-court-ruling-219763">serving in public office following their unsuccessful rebellion</a> against the Union. </p>
<p>Section 3 of the 14th Amendment says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>With 15 commas, the meaning and application of Section 3 may confuse many readers. Constitutional law scholar Mark Graber provided a thorough discussion of each sentence fragment and clause in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-14th-amendment-bars-trump-from-office-a-constitutional-law-scholar-explains-principle-behind-colorado-supreme-court-ruling-219763">recent article for The Conversation</a>. In his summary of this section of the 14th Amendment, he says “These words in the amendment declare that those who turn to bullets when ballots fail to provide their desired result cannot be trusted as democratic officials.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570081/original/file-20240118-21-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A page from a legal document filed 'In the Supreme Court of the United States'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570081/original/file-20240118-21-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570081/original/file-20240118-21-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570081/original/file-20240118-21-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570081/original/file-20240118-21-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570081/original/file-20240118-21-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570081/original/file-20240118-21-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570081/original/file-20240118-21-uh5p2k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A page from the appeal by former President Donald Trump asking the U.S. Supreme Court to review the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024TrumpColoradoInsurrectionAmendment/f1e2b09db9de4b658048c40c6627b9cf/photo?Query=Trump%20colorado%20ballot&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=268&currentItemNo=5">AP Photo/Jon Elswick</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Settling the unsettled</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court agreed to consider Trump’s appeal in early January 2024 because whether Trump is constitutionally qualified to serve as the president of the United States again is a critical question in an area of law that is not settled. While the Supreme Court <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10569">considered some general cases of insurrection and rebellion</a> following the Civil War, the Supreme Court has never faced this specific question regarding Section 3.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court will consider whether the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering the former president excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot.</p>
<p>But this specific question also presents a number of related legal questions that the Supreme Court could also decide, ranging from whether Section 3 applies to the presidency to whether Section 3 only prohibits a candidate from serving in office as opposed to appearing on any ballot. Then, of course, there is the factual issue as to whether the former president “engaged in an insurrection or rebellion” against the United States.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-719.html">Trump v. Anderson on Feb. 8, 2024</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221396/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>No conflicts.</span></em></p>The first shoe has dropped in the Supreme Court’s process of considering whether Donald Trump is eligible to be president.Wayne Unger, Assistant Professor of Law, Quinnipiac UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2202732023-12-21T02:07:03Z2023-12-21T02:07:03ZTrump barred from Colorado ballot – now what?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566998/original/file-20231220-17-avsgja.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C23%2C3958%2C2634&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump at a campaign event in Waterloo, Iowa, on Dec. 19, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-us-president-and-2024-presidential-hopeful-donald-news-photo/1860797047?adppopup=true">Kamil Krzaczysnki/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In the wake of the Colorado Supreme Court ruling that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/politics/trump-colorado-supreme-court-14th-amendment">bars Donald Trump from the ballot</a> in the state’s primary and general elections, The Conversation U.S. asked <a href="https://www.law.umaryland.edu/faculty--research/directory/profile/index.php?id=055">Mark A. Graber</a>, regents professor of law at the University of Maryland Carey Law School, what this all means – for Trump, for regular Americans and for the 2024 election.</em></p>
<p><em>The key questions are about <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-14/#amendment-14-section-3">Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution</a>. That provision bars people from holding federal and state offices if they have taken an oath to uphold the Constitution and then violated that oath by participating in an insurrection.</em></p>
<p><em>Graber filed an <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/x4tl8vbdcy6bmqfr6p3jv/002-2023-11-20-Amicus-Brief-Professor-Graber-CSC-Date-Stamped.pdf?rlkey=m1pbl5qtycw1hzue9kt2n75d5&dl=0">amicus brief</a> that was technically in support of the voters seeking to block Trump from the ballot, but focused specifically on the history of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Some of Graber’s scholarly works, including a <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4591133">journal article</a> and a <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700635030/">book</a>, were cited in the court’s decision.</em></p>
<p><em>The court’s ruling has sparked a <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/20/nation/republicans-angry-trump-disqualified-colorado-ballot/">nationwide outcry</a> – both in support of its conclusions and in opposition to them. And many other states may have to make similar decisions.</em></p>
<p><em>Supporters of the court’s decision say it correctly determined that Trump swore an oath to uphold the Constitution at his inauguration, then participated in an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, and therefore is <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4368931-democratic-lawmakers-voice-support-for-colorado-courts-ruling-on-trump/">not qualified to serve</a> as president. Critics of the decision say <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/20/trump-republican-rivals-colorado-ballot/">judges are trying to usurp voters’ right</a> to choose the president they want.</em></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man wearing a blue shirt and a hat drops off a ballot in an official box." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566999/original/file-20231220-23-i9pxr6.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Colorado Supreme Court said Donald Trump could not appear on the state’s 2024 primary or general election ballot. Here, a voter drops off his ballot in Denver during the 2022 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/voter-places-his-ballot-in-a-drop-off-box-outside-the-la-news-photo/1244617819?adppopup=true">Photo by Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are people so interested in this ruling?</h2>
<p>Somebody had to go in the water. I think the last thing anyone wanted was for the first successful disqualification of Trump to be a month before the election. Now, the issue is on the table. It wouldn’t surprise me if other states discover the water isn’t all that bad and disqualify Trump. Then we can get answers before people start voting in the primaries and in the general election. </p>
<h2>From here, what happens procedurally?</h2>
<p>One answer – and I doubt this would happen, but it actually might make sense – is that Trump doesn’t bother appealing. He doesn’t need Colorado delegates to get the Republican nomination. He doesn’t need Colorado electoral votes to win the presidency. And appealing is time-consuming and expensive.</p>
<p>Dating back as far as the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/judiciary_act_of_1789">Judiciary Act of 1789</a>, federal laws have allowed certain types of rulings from states’ highest courts to be appealed directly to the U.S. Supreme Court.</p>
<p>Everybody expects the Supreme Court to get involved. But nobody thinks it is required to. If it were appealed, the court could decline to hear the case, or accept it.</p>
<p>So Trump could appeal. If he didn’t appeal, or if the Supreme Court declined to take the case, then he’s disqualified in Colorado. Perhaps other lawsuits would take place, and he would be on the ballot in some states and not on the ballot in others. The Supreme Court could also say it would consider taking up a future case if a conflict between state court rulings arose.</p>
<h2>What if the Supreme Court does take the case?</h2>
<p>Most people think there are two options for the outcome, but I think there are three.</p>
<p>The simple option is that the Supreme Court could rule that yes, Trump is disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Then he can’t be on the ballot anywhere.</p>
<p>The second option is the Supreme Court says he’s not disqualified. But the court could hand down two different kinds of rulings saying that.</p>
<p>It could reverse the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision on substance, finding that Trump did not engage in insurrection as insurrection is understood by the 14th Amendment. That would mean no further proceedings are permissible – no state can challenge it, and Congress can’t challenge it.</p>
<p>Or the Supreme Court could reverse it on a technicality – maybe Trump is disqualified, but the 14th Amendment’s Section 3 doesn’t apply to a primary election, or Congress should weigh in, or one or another detail that could mean another lawsuit down the line might be successful.</p>
<h2>That’s two options. What’s the third?</h2>
<p>There’s a third major option if you look at the way the framers understood how the 14th Amendment would operate. The <a href="https://memory.loc.gov/ammem/amlaw/lwcg.html">record of their debates</a> shows that they believed it would first be implemented in the states. </p>
<p>Part of the history is people in the 19th century thought differently than we do. Not simply that they came to different conclusions, but they understood the structure of the government quite differently.</p>
<p>Today, we hear people say many laws and standards can’t be established at the state level, that they need to be uniform across the country. But back then, people were less fearful of diversity. So they were willing to let states vary more. If uniformity was needed, or if Congress did not approve of what the states were doing, Congress could pass more general legislation. </p>
<p>So the court could say, “Colorado has disqualified Trump. That’s OK for Colorado. Other states, you get to do what you think best. And Congress, if you don’t like the mish-mosh, pass a law standardizing it.” I think that’s the least likely outcome, but it may be the one most consistent with the history.</p>
<h2>The Colorado Supreme Court says that there doesn’t need to be a criminal conviction of any kind, or a conviction from impeachment, for this provision of the 14th Amendment to apply. Does it matter that Trump has not yet been convicted of any crimes?</h2>
<p>The court is absolutely correct. </p>
<p>There are a number of different ways of understanding this point.</p>
<p>The first is that Section 3 states a qualification to be president, just like <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/article-2/#article-2-section-1-clause-5">being born a United States citizen</a>. So the Colorado Secretary of State would make the same decision if there was evidence that Trump was born Latvian. Being born in Latvia is not a crime. But it’s a disqualification.</p>
<p>The second aspect is that prosecutors charge people with crimes for various reasons. They may have decided to seek prosecution of Trump for other actions. Absence of a conviction doesn’t mean an action didn’t happen.</p>
<p>Or imagine that Trump was still president and the attorney general didn’t want to prosecute because the attorney general is in cahoots with Trump. A private person could still bring the lawsuit.</p>
<p>Right after the Civil War, numerous people were disqualified under this provision, none of whom were convicted of anything.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large, impressive building with columns atop wide granite stairs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567000/original/file-20231220-21-freci9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Colorado case may well be headed for the U.S. Supreme Court.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/steps-to-the-united-states-supreme-court-washington-royalty-free-image/1364488146?phrase=US+Supreme+Court&adppopup=true">joe daniel price/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why is a state court ruling on a federal constitutional provision or requirement?</h2>
<p>Is capital punishment constitutional? The death penalty trial starts in the state court. It bubbles up until it gets to the state supreme court, then it goes to the federal courts. Same with abortion.</p>
<p>States decide constitutional issues all the time. Indeed, almost all constitutional issues are first decided by state courts.</p>
<h2>What does this mean on a broader scale for the 2024 election?</h2>
<p>We’re not at the end. We just got out of the opening. So the meaning could be almost nothing. The U.S. Supreme Court could reverse the Colorado ruling and say all these lawsuits are wrong. And so we have an interesting academic discussion, but nothing changes.</p>
<p>Or we could have a very long debate about this. And at some point, for example, a number of prominent Republicans could conclude that Trump really is an insurrectionist, and this starts to have serious play in Republican primaries.</p>
<p>We’re still too early to know whether this is a blip or an earthquake, or something in between.</p>
<p>People are scrambling to figure out what they’re going to do. The Colorado Republican Party has just announced they’re <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/colorado-gop-caucus-primary-trump-supreme-court-rcna130591">considering a caucus rather than the primary</a> to avoid needing Trump’s name on a state ballot – at least for the primaries. People are maneuvering.</p>
<h2>How does it feel to be cited in a Colorado Supreme Court decision like this?</h2>
<p>I’m an academic. Favorable citations are 100 on a scale of 100 points. Unfavorable citations are 99. No citations is zero.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark A. Graber filed an amicus brief in the Colorado case that was technically in support of the voters seeking to block Trump from the ballot, but focused specifically on the history of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.</span></em></p>A historian and legal scholar of a key part of the US Constitution explains what happens now that the Colorado Supreme Court has ruled Trump cannot be on the state’s presidential ballots.Mark A. Graber, University System of Maryland Regents Professor of Law, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2052442023-11-14T13:26:11Z2023-11-14T13:26:11Z1 in 4 Colorado 11th-graders skipped their state’s standardized test − geography and income help explain why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539579/original/file-20230726-19-nsluta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=76%2C53%2C5035%2C3349&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">High school students in Colorado have protested the use of standardized tests. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/elevated-view-of-students-writing-their-gcse-exam-royalty-free-image/525409577?phrase=students+taking+an+exam&adppopup=true">Caiaimage/Chris Ryan via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em> </p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>About one in four 11th-graders in Colorado <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584231169735">exercised their right</a> to skip the <a href="https://www.cde.state.co.us/assessment/cmas">state’s official science test</a> each year between 2016 and 2019. More specifically, between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584231169735">23% and 27% of 11th-graders</a> did not participate in the science exam during those years. That’s what we found in a study published in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584231169735">AERA Open</a>. Our study was based on a geographical analysis of state data that revealed how many students decided to skip the test during the years in question.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Opting out of tests is part of a recent national educational movement across the United States. The opt-out movement garnered national attention in <a href="https://www.tc.columbia.edu/articles/2017/august/how-americans-view-the-opt-out-movement/">2015 and 2016</a> after growing <a href="https://www.tc.columbia.edu/media/news/docs/Opt_Out_National-Survey----FINAL-FULL-REPORT.pdf">dissatisfaction with high-stakes testing</a>, both as a tool to evaluate teacher performance and assess student learning. Many students and parents do not believe in the importance of standardized tests as a measure of academic achievement.</p>
<p>Much of the opt-out movement was led by parents who chose to keep their children home from school on the test day. They often acted in coordination with national groups such as <a href="https://unitedoptout.com/about/">United Opt Out</a>.
Colorado is a unique case, though, because high school students were actively involved <a href="https://co.chalkbeat.org/2015/7/27/21092318/after-widespread-test-protests-last-fall-opting-out-spread-during-spring-exams">in the opt-out movement</a> and were protesting the use of standardized tests. </p>
<p>Opting-out behavior varied dramatically among certain subgroups in Colorado. Generally, schools with higher proportions of white students and more students on free and reduced lunch plans had <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584231169735">lower opt-out rates</a>. Students at charter schools were also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584231169735">less likely to opt out</a> of the 11th grade science exam. Schools with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584231169735">larger class sizes had higher opt-out rates</a>. </p>
<p>But the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584231169735">state’s geography plays a critical role</a> – not all trends are the same across the state. The opt-out movement was more prominent in certain parts of the state and among certain groups. For instance, we found that poor students in more rural and politically conservative communities were more likely to opt out than poor students in other areas of the state, such as Denver, which is politically more liberal. </p>
<p>Rural schools in eastern Colorado tended to have higher test participation rates. At the same time, some of the rural schools along the I-70 corridor and on the Western Slope had substantially lower test participation rates. Charter schools tended to have lower opt-out rates than regular public schools. However, charter schools in Denver and northern Colorado tended to have much higher opt-out rates than charter schools across the rest of the state. </p>
<p>The findings from our study tell a complicated story of standardized test participation in Colorado. The findings show how demographics, school governance and geography all affect whether students participate in standardized tests in Colorado. </p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>Based on our analysis, we cannot determine the exact reasons students opted out of tests. We also could not determine to what extent youth led the movement to opt out of 11th grade science exams. We plan to find out how and why students decided to opt out of tests in Colorado through survey and qualitative research studies beginning in fall 2023. We also plan to look at opting-out trends in other states.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205244/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sherman Dorn is affiliated with the National Education Policy Center. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carlos Casanova, Kathryn Chapman, and Lydia Ross do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The opt-out movement caught on heavily in Colorado in the late 2010s. A group of education scholars is exploring the reasons why.Lydia Ross, Assistant Professor of Educational Leadership and Innovation, Arizona State UniversityCarlos Casanova, Assistant Professor of Education, Arizona State UniversityKathryn Chapman, Clinical Assistant Professor of Early Childhood Studies, University of FloridaSherman Dorn, Professor of Education, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140602023-10-13T18:01:21Z2023-10-13T18:01:21ZWildfire smoke leaves harmful gases in floors and walls − air purifiers aren’t enough, new study shows, but you can clean it up<p>When wildfire smoke turns the air brown and hazy, you might think about heading indoors with the windows closed, running an air purifier or even wearing a mask. These are all good strategies to reduce exposure to the particles in wildfire smoke, but smoky air is also filled with potentially harmful gases. Those gases can get into buildings and remain in the walls and floors for weeks.</p>
<p>Getting rid of these gases isn’t as simple as turning on an air purifier or opening a window on a clear day.</p>
<p>In a new study published in the journal Science Advances, colleagues and I tracked <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh8263">the life of these gases</a> in a home exposed to wildfire smoke. We also found that the best way to get rid of the risk is among the simplest: start cleaning.</p>
<h2>The challenge of smoke particles and gases</h2>
<p>In December 2021, several of my friends and colleagues were affected by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/homes-that-survived-the-marshall-fire-1-year-ago-harbored-another-disaster-inside-heres-what-weve-learned-about-this-insidious-urban-wildfire-risk-196926">Marshall Fire</a> that burned about 1,000 homes in Boulder County, Colorado. The “lucky” ones, whose homes were still standing, asked me what they should do to clean their houses. I am <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=XpzGDEUAAAAJ&hl=en">an atmospheric and indoor chemist</a>, so I started looking into the published research, but I found very few studies on what happens after a building is exposed to smoke.</p>
<p>What scientists did know was that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D1EM00087J">smoke particles end up on indoor surfaces</a> – floors, walls, ceilings. We knew that air <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02786826.2022.2054674">filters</a> could remove particles from the air. And colleagues and I were just beginning to understand that volatile organic compounds, which are traditionally thought to stay in the air, could actually <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay8973">stick to surfaces inside a home and build up reservoirs</a> – invisible pools of organic molecules that can contribute to the air chemistry inside the house.</p>
<p>Volatile organic compounds, or VOCs, are compounds that easily become gases at room temperature. They include everything from limonene in lemons to benzene in gasoline. VOCs aren’t always hazardous to human health, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c04497">many VOCs in smoke are</a>. I started to wonder whether the VOCs in wildfire smoke could also stick to the surfaces of a house.</p>
<h2>Tracking lingering risks in a test house</h2>
<p>I worked with researchers from across the U.S. and Canada to explore this problem during the <a href="https://indoorchem.org/projects/casa/">Chemical Assessment of Surfaces and Air</a>, or CASA, study in 2022. We built on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/C9EM00228F">HOMEChem</a>, a previous study in which we looked at how cooking, cleaning and occupancy could change indoor air.</p>
<p>In CASA, we studied what happens when pollutants and chemicals get inside our homes – pesticides, smog and even wood smoke.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VptLTyx0ptk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tracking VOCs from smoke and other sources.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using a cocktail smoker and wood chips, we created a surprisingly chemically accurate proxy for wildfire smoke and released small doses into a <a href="https://www.nist.gov/el/net-zero-energy-residential-test-facility">test house</a> built by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. NIST’s house allowed us to conduct controlled chemistry experiments in a real-world setting.</p>
<p>We even aged the smoke in a large bag with ozone to simulate what happens when smoke travels long distances, like the smoke from Canadian wildfires that <a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfire-smoke-and-dirty-air-are-also-climate-change-problems-solutions-for-a-world-on-fire-207676">moved into the U.S.</a> in the summer of 2023. Smoke chemistry changes as it travels: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acsearthspacechem.9b00125">Particles become more oxidized</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012218117">brown</a>, while VOCs <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c05684">break down</a> and the smoke loses its distinctive smell.</p>
<h2>How VOCs behave in your home</h2>
<p>What we found in CASA was intriguing. While smoke particles quickly settled on indoor surfaces, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh8263">VOCs were more insidious</a>.</p>
<p>At first, the house took up these smoke VOCs – on floors, walls and building surfaces. But once the initial smoke cleared, the house would slowly release those VOCs back out over the next hours, days or even months, depending on the type of VOC.</p>
<p>This release is what we call a partitioning process: During the smoke event, individual VOC molecules in the air attach to indoor surfaces with weak chemical bonds. The <a href="https://www.int-ads-soc.org/what-is-adsorption/">process is called adsorption</a>. As smoke clears and the air cleans out, the bonds can break, and molecules “desorb” back out into the air.</p>
<p><iframe id="v93H7" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v93H7/10/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>We could watch this partitioning happen in the air by measuring smoke VOC concentrations. On surfaces, we could measure the weight of smoke VOCs that deposited on very sensitive balances and then were slowly released.</p>
<p>Overall, we concluded that this surface reservoir <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh8263">allows smoke VOCs to linger indoors</a>, meaning that people are exposed to them not just during the major smoke event but also long after.</p>
<h2>Why worry about VOCs?</h2>
<p>Smoke VOCs include well-known <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GH000546">carcinogens</a>, and high levels of exposure can induce <a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfire-smoke-can-harm-human-health-even-when-the-fire-is-burning-hundreds-of-miles-away-a-toxicologist-explains-why-206057">respiratory and health problems</a>.</p>
<p>While smoke VOC concentrations in our test house decreased with time, they remained persistently elevated above normal levels.</p>
<p>Given that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c01381">VOC concentrations from other sources</a>, such as cooking and cleaning, can already be high enough in homes to harm health, this additional long-term exposure source from smoke could be important. Further toxicology studies will be needed to determine the significance of its health effects.</p>
<h2>How to clean up when smoke gets in</h2>
<p>So, what can you do to remove these lingering smoke gases?</p>
<p>We found that air purifiers can remove only some of the VOCs that are in the air – they can’t clean the VOCs on your floors or in your walls. They also work only when they’re running, and even then, air purifiers don’t work particularly well to reduce VOCs.</p>
<p>Opening windows to ventilate will clean the air, if it isn’t smoggy or smoky outside. But as soon as we closed windows and doors, smoke VOCs started to bleed off the surface reservoirs and into the air again, resulting in an elevated, near-constant concentration.</p>
<p>We realized that to permanently remove those smoke VOCs, we had to physically remove them from surfaces.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young scientist, wearing a face mask, and a large air purifier." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550124/original/file-20230925-19-s23qd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550124/original/file-20230925-19-s23qd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550124/original/file-20230925-19-s23qd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550124/original/file-20230925-19-s23qd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550124/original/file-20230925-19-s23qd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550124/original/file-20230925-19-s23qd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550124/original/file-20230925-19-s23qd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A scientist takes samples while running an air purifier in the test house. The results show the air purifier helps while it’s running, but only for gases in the air.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Eisele/Colorado State University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The good news is that cleaning surfaces by vacuuming, dusting and mopping with a commercial, nonbleach solution did the trick. While some remediation companies may do this surface cleaning for you after extreme exposures, surface cleaning after any smoke event – like <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-americas-summer-of-wildfire-smoke-2023-was-only-the-beginning-210246">Canadian wildfire smoke</a> drifting into homes in 2023 – should effectively and permanently reduced smoke VOC levels indoors.</p>
<p>Of course, we could reach only a certain number of surfaces – it’s hard to vacuum the ceiling! That meant that surface cleaning improved but didn’t eliminate smoke VOC levels in the house. But our study at least provides a path forward for cleaning indoor spaces affected by air pollutants, whether from wildfires, chemical spills or other events. </p>
<p>With wildfires <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/air-pollution-wildfires-expected-surge-world-warms">becoming more frequent</a>, surface cleaning can be an easy, cheap and effective way to improve indoor air quality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214060/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Delphine Farmer receives funding from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, W.M. Keck Foundation, National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.</span></em></p>Wildfire smoke, even from fires far away, carries potentially harmful gases that, once inside, tend to stick around. An air quality specialist offers an easy, cheap, effective way to deal with it.Delphine Farmer, Professor of Chemistry, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060572023-05-22T12:26:52Z2023-05-22T12:26:52ZWildfire smoke can harm human health, even when the fire is burning hundreds of miles away – a toxicologist explains why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534623/original/file-20230628-27-qecwmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C66%2C4001%2C2728&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wildfire smoke filled the air at Chicago's Wrigley Field on June 27, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CanadaWildfiresAirQualityGreatLakesBaseball/e86f2c376cb040da87a614b0abdb8861/photo">AP Photo/Kim Johnson</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Smoke from <a href="https://www.ciffc.ca/">more than 100 wildfires</a> burning across Canada has been rolling into North American cities far from the flames. New York City, Denver, Chicago, Minneapolis and Detroit each made the list of the <a href="https://www.iqair.com/us/world-air-quality-ranking">most polluted cities in the world</a> at times in May and June 2023 because of the fires. The smoke has triggered air quality alerts in several states.</em></p>
<p><em>We asked <a href="https://www.umt.edu/biomedical-pharmaceutical-sciences/people/faculty.php?ID=1345">Chris Migliaccio</a>, a toxicologist at the University of Montana who studies the impact of wildfire smoke on human health, about the health risks people can face when smoke blows in from distant wildfires.</em></p>
<h2>What’s in wildfire smoke that’s a problem?</h2>
<p>When we talk about air quality, we often talk about PM2.5. That’s particulate matter 2.5 microns or smaller – small enough that it can travel deep into the lungs.</p>
<p>Exposure to PM2.5 from smoke or other air pollution, such as vehicle emissions, can exacerbate health conditions like asthma and reduce lung function in ways that can worsen existing respiratory problems and even heart disease.</p>
<p>But the term PM2.5 only tells you about size, not composition – what is burning can make a significant difference in the chemistry.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of North America shows wildfire smoke from fires in Alberta and Ontario, Canada, detected strongly with poor air quality in the Great Lakes region, Northeast and Midwestern U.S." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smoke from wildfires in Canada was detected across a large part of the U.S. on June 28, 2023. Dark purple dots indicate hazardous air quality. Light purple indicates very unhealthy air; red is unhealthy; orange is unhealthy for sensitive groups; and yellow indicates moderate risk. AirNow.gov.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://fire.airnow.gov/">AirNow.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the northern Rockies, where I live, most fires are fueled by vegetation, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3450">not all vegetation is the same</a>. If the fire is in the wildland urban interface, manufactured fuels from homes and vehicles may also be burning, and that’s going to <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26460/the-chemistry-of-fires-at-the-wildland-urban-interface">create its own toxic chemistry</a>, as well. Chemists often talk about <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/effects/wildfires.htm">volatile organic compounds</a>, (VOCs), carbon monoxide and PAHs, or <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PAHs_FactSheet.html">polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons</a> produced when biomass and other matter burns having the potential to harm human health.</p>
<h2>How does inhaling wildfire smoke harm human health?</h2>
<p>If you have ever been around a campfire and got a blast of smoke in your face, you probably had some irritation. With exposure to wildfire smoke, you might get some irritation in the nose and throat and maybe <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GH000578">some inflammation</a>. If you’re healthy, your body for the most part will be able to handle it. </p>
<p>As with a lot of things, the dose makes the poison – almost anything can be harmful at a certain dose.</p>
<p>Generally, cells in the lungs called <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK513313/">alveolar macrophages</a> will pick up the particulates and clear them out – at reasonable doses. It’s when the system gets overwhelmed that you can have a problem.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Illustration of a small section of lungs showing the alveoli and, within the alveoli, a close up of a microphage" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1148&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1148&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1148&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where macrophages are found in alveoli, the tiny air sacs in the lungs.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One concern is that smoke can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31459-6">suppress macrophage function</a>, altering it enough that you become more susceptible to respiratory infection. A colleague who looked at lag time in the effect of wildfire smoke exposure found an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105668">increase in influenza cases after a bad fire season</a>. Studies in developing countries have also found increases in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119055">respiratory infections</a> with people who are <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/thx.2010.147884">cooking on open fires</a> in homes.</p>
<p>The stress of an inflammatory response can also exacerbate existing health problems. Being exposed to wood smoke won’t independently cause someone to have a heart attack, but if they have underlying risk factors, such as significant plaque buildup, the added stress can increase the risk.</p>
<p>Researchers are also studying potential <a href="https://theconversation.com/breathing-wildfire-smoke-can-affect-the-brain-and-sperm-as-well-as-the-lungs-166548">effects on the brain</a> and <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/full/10.1289/EHP10498">nervous system</a> from <a href="https://www.epa.gov/isa/integrated-science-assessment-isa-particulate-matter">inhaled particulate matter</a>.</p>
<h2>When smoke blows over long distances, does its toxicity change?</h2>
<p>We know that the chemistry of wildfire smoke changes. The longer it’s in the atmosphere, the more the <a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfire-smoke-changes-dramatically-as-it-ages-and-that-matters-for-downwind-air-quality-heres-what-we-learned-flying-through-smoke-plumes-151671">chemistry will be altered</a> by ultraviolet light, but we still have <a href="http://doi.org/10.1016/j.etap.2017.08.022">a lot to learn</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman walks past the New York Stock Exchange building in the Wall Street district of New York. The sky is yellow-orange with wildfire smoke, a sky color common in apocalyptic films." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wildfire smoke from Canada turned the skies in New York City an apocalyptic shade of orange on June 7, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CanadaWIldfiresPhotoGallery/1601ea44e9bb4515ba755b4f6a7d5fa9/photo">AP Photo/J. David Ake</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Researchers have found that there seems to be a higher level of oxidation, so oxidants and free radicals are being generated the longer smoke is in the air. The specific health effects aren’t yet clear, but there’s some indication that more exposure leads to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/8416763">greater health effects</a>.</p>
<p>The supposition is that more <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/four-times-more-toxic-how-wildfire-smoke-ages-over-time">free radicals are generated</a> the longer smoke is exposed to UV light, so there’s a greater potential for health harm. A lot of that, again, comes down to dose.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The city skyline disappears as the viewer looks farther into the haze, which is coming from wildfire smoke." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Haze from wildfire smoke envelopes the Minneapolis skyline on June 14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CanadianWildfiresAirQuality/4dedf9a42ab04009a3f199e415fb66b1/photo">AP Photo/Abbie Parr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Chances are, if you’re a healthy individual, going for a bike ride or a hike in light haze won’t be a big deal, and your body will be able to recover. </p>
<p>If you’re doing that every day for a month in wildfire smoke, however, that raises more concerns. I’ve worked on studies with residents at Seeley Lake in Montana who were exposed to hazardous levels of PM2.5 from wildfire smoke for 49 days in 2017. We found a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/toxics8030053">decrease in lung function a year later</a>. No one was on oxygen, but there was a significant drop.</p>
<p>This is a relatively new area of research, and there’s still a lot we’re learning, especially with the increase in wildfire activity as the planet warms.</p>
<h2>What precautions can people take to reduce their risk from wildfire smoke?</h2>
<p>If there is smoke in the air, you want to decrease your exposure. </p>
<p>Can you completely avoid the smoke? Not unless you’re in a hermetically sealed home. The PM levels aren’t much different indoors and out unless you have a really good HVAC system, such as those with <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/what-merv-rating">MERV 15 or better filters</a>. But going inside decreases your activity, so your breathing rate is slower and the amount of smoke you’re inhaling is likely lower.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A satellite animation shows smoke moving from fires in Alberta across Canada and into New England." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A satellite captures wildfire smoke on May 16, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/worldview/worldview-image-archive/canada-fires-16-may-2023">NASA EarthData</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also tend to advise people that if you’re in a susceptible group, such as those with asthma, create a safe space at home and in the office with a high-level stand-alone air filtration system to create a space with cleaner air.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-020-00267-4">masks can help</a>. It doesn’t hurt to have a high-quality N95 mask. Just wearing a cloth mask won’t do much, though.</p>
<p>Most <a href="https://www.airnow.gov/">states have air quality monitors</a> that can give you a sense of how bad the air quality is, so check those sites and act accordingly.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated June 28, 2023, with smoke in Chicago, Minneapolis and Detroit and the latest map of smoke conditions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206057/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher T. Migliaccio has received funding from the NIH and HRSA for his work in wood smoke health effects.
. </span></em></p>Fires in Canada have sent smoke across several US states, leaving cities including New York, Chicago and Denver with some of the worst air quality in the world – even far from the flames.Christopher T. Migliaccio, Research Associate Professor in Toxicology, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034722023-04-19T12:44:18Z2023-04-19T12:44:18ZFire danger in the high mountains is intensifying: That’s bad news for humans, treacherous for the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521666/original/file-20230418-22-zv27xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1731%2C1065&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fires are increasing in high mountain areas that rarely burned in the past.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Deerfire_high_res.jpg">John McColgan, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Fire Service</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As wildfire risk rises in the West, wildland firefighters and officials are keeping a closer eye on the high mountains – regions once considered too wet to burn.</p>
<p>The growing fire risk in these areas became startling clear in 2020, when Colorado’s <a href="https://www.cpr.org/2021/01/25/colorados-east-troublesome-wildfire-may-signal-a-new-era-of-big-fire-blow-ups/">East Troublesome Fire</a> burned up and over the Continental Divide to become the state’s second-largest fire on record. The following year, California’s <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-14/californias-wildfires-burning-at-greater-elevations">Dixie Fire</a> became the first on record to burn across the Sierra Nevada’s crest and start down the other side.</p>
<p>We study wildfire behavior as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZaW8ZbsAAAAJ&hl=en">climate scientists</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tGGNDyUAAAAJ&hl=en">engineers</a>. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37311-4">new study</a>, we show that fire risk has intensified in every region across the West over the past four decades, but the sharpest upward trends are in the high elevations. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fire burns in the mountains above a building and ranch fence." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C17%2C5670%2C3236&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2020, Colorado’s East Troublesome fire jumped the Continental Divide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Exchange-ColoradoWildfires-Blow-ups/8e10c8213c3847f3a7ef14e7ff81eddf/photo">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>High mountain fires can create a cascade of risks for local ecosystems and for millions of people living farther down the mountains.</p>
<p>Since cooler, wetter high mountain landscapes rarely burn, vegetation and dead wood can build up, so <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009717118">highland fires tend to be intense and uncontrollable</a>. They can affect everything from water quality and the timing of meltwater that communities and farmers rely on, to erosion that can bring debris and mud flows. Ultimately, they can change the hydrology, ecology and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/geomorphology">geomorphology</a> of the highlands, with complex feedback loops that can transform mountain landscapes and endanger human safety.</p>
<h2>Four decades of rising fire risk</h2>
<p>Historically, higher moisture levels and cooler temperatures created a flammability barrier in the highlands. This enabled fire managers to leave fires that move away from human settlements and up mountains to run their course without interference. Fire would hit the flammability barrier and burn out.</p>
<p>However, our findings show that’s no longer reliable as the climate warms.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37311-4">analyzed fire danger trends</a> in different elevation bands of the Western U.S. mountains from 1979 to 2020. Fire danger describes conditions that reflect the <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/inyo/home/?cid=stelprdb5173311">potential for a fire to ignite and spread</a>.</p>
<p>Over that 42-year period, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz4571">rising temperatures and drying trends</a> increased the number of critical fire danger days in every region in the U.S. West. But in the highlands, certain environmental processes, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563">earlier snowmelt</a> that allowed the earth to heat up and become drier, intensified the fire danger faster than anywhere else. It was particularly stark in high-elevation forests from about 8,200 to 9,800 feet (2,500-3,000 meters) in elevation, just above the elevation of Aspen, Colorado.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing changing wildfire risks in the high mountains" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mohammad Reza Alizadeh</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found that the high-elevation band had gained on average 63 critical fire danger days a year by 2020 compared with 1979. That included 22 days outside the traditional warm season of May to September. In previous research, we found that high-elevation fires had been advancing upslope in the West at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009717118">about 25 feet (7.6 meters) per year</a>.</p>
<h2>Cascading risks for humans downstream</h2>
<p>Mountains are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005653">water towers</a> of the world, providing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073551">70% of the runoff that cities across the West</a> rely on. They support millions of people who live downstream.</p>
<p>High-elevation fires can have a significant impact on snow accumulation and meltwater, even long after they have burned out. </p>
<p>For example, fires remove vegetation cover and tree canopies, which can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09935-y">shorten the amount of time</a> the snowpack stays frozen before melting. Soot from fires also darkens the snow surface, increasing its ability to absorb the Sun’s energy, which facilitates melting. Similarly, darkened land surface increases the absorption of solar radiation and heightens soil temperature after fires.</p>
<p>The result of these changes can be spring flooding, and less water later in the summer when communities downstream are counting on it.</p>
<p>Fire-driven tree loss also removes anchor points for the snowpack, increasing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.01.050">the frequency and severity of avalanches</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A burned area on a mountain ridge with a large reservoir far below." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wildfire burn scars can have many effects on the water quality and quantity reaching communities below.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/iron-mountain-and-whiskeytown-lake-site-of-the-destructive-news-photo/1334892056">George Rose/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Frequent fires in high-elevation areas can also have a significant impact on the sediment dynamics of mountain streams. The loss of tree canopy means rainfall hits the ground at a higher velocity, increasing the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814627116">potential for erosion</a>. This can trigger mudslides and increase the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09864-w">amount of sediment</a> sent downstream, which in turn can affect water quality and aquatic habitats.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814627116">Erosion linked to runoff after fire damage</a> can also deepen streams to the point that excess water from storms can’t spread in high-elevation meadows and recharge the groundwater; instead, they route the water quickly downstream and cause flooding.</p>
<h2>Hazards for climate-stressed species and ecosystems</h2>
<p>The highlands generally have long fire return intervals, burning once every several decades if not centuries. Since they don’t burn often, their ecosystems aren’t as fire-adapted as lower-elevation forests, so they may not recover as efficiently or survive repeated fires. </p>
<p>Studies show that more frequent fires could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12889">change the type of trees that grow</a> in the highlands or even convert them to shrubs or grasses. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A team of pack mules carries supplies up a high mountain in Glacier National Park. Some of the trees have burned, even at this high elevation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High-elevation tree species like whitebark pines face an increasing risk of blister rust infections and mountain pine beetle infestations that can kill trees, creating more fuel for fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/park-service-animal-packers-jill-michalak-and-jacob-ellis-news-photo/1175612536">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wet mountain areas, with their cooler temperatures and higher precipitation, are often peppered with hot spots of biodiversity and provide refuges to various species from the warming climate. If these areas lose their tree canopies, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103097108">species with small ranges</a> that depend on cold-water mountain streams can face existential risks as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0822.1">more energy from the Sun</a> heats up stream water in the absence of tree shading. </p>
<p>While the risk is rising fastest in the high mountains, most of the West is now at increasing risk of fires. With continuing greenhouse gas emissions fueling global warming, this trend of worsening fire danger is expected to intensify further, straining firefighting resources as crews battle more blazes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203472/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mojtaba Sadegh receives funding from the Joint Fire Science Program and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammad Reza Alizadeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fires here can affect meltwater timing and water quality, worsen erosion that triggers mudslides, and much more, as two scientists explain.Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Postdoctoral Researcher in Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Mojtaba Sadegh, Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2011562023-03-16T12:50:59Z2023-03-16T12:50:59ZIs the Western drought finally ending? That depends on where you look<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514982/original/file-20230313-16-kn6nns.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C6000%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">California's snowpack was more than twice the average in much of the state in early March 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vehicles-pass-along-a-highway-snowplowed-through-deep-snow-news-photo/1458394332">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After three years of extreme drought, the Western U.S. is finally getting a break. Mountain ranges are <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd1045012.html">covered in deep snow</a>, and water reservoirs in many areas <a href="https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain">are filling up</a> following a series of <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/stories/what-are-atmospheric-rivers">atmospheric rivers</a> that brought record rain and snowfall to large parts of the region.</p>
<p>Many people are looking at the snow and water levels and asking: Is the drought finally over?</p>
<p>There is a lot of nuance to the answer. Where you are in the West and how you define “drought” make a difference. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dloXR6MAAAAJ&hl=en">drought and water researcher</a> at the <a href="https://www.dri.edu/directory/dan-mcevoy/">Desert Research Institute’s</a> Western Regional Climate Center, here’s what I’m seeing.</p>
<h2>How fast each region recovers will vary</h2>
<p>The winter of 2023 has made a big dent in improving the drought and potentially eliminating the water shortage problems of the last few summers. </p>
<p>I say “potentially” because in many areas, a lot of the impacts of drought tend to <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca8bd/meta">show up in summer</a>, once the winter rain and snow stop and the West starts relying on reservoirs and streams for water. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca8bd">Spring heat waves</a> like the ones we saw in 2021 or <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0093&yr=2023">rain in the mountains</a> could melt the snowpack faster than normal.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A US map shows heavy rain across much of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska and Arizona" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515502/original/file-20230315-28-wlk89n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515502/original/file-20230315-28-wlk89n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515502/original/file-20230315-28-wlk89n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515502/original/file-20230315-28-wlk89n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515502/original/file-20230315-28-wlk89n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515502/original/file-20230315-28-wlk89n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515502/original/file-20230315-28-wlk89n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Atmospheric rivers in January brought heavy rain across large parts of the West. Another powerful storm system hit in March.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atmospheric-rivers-take-chunk-out-california-drought">Climate.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>California and the Great Basin</h2>
<p>In California, the state’s three-year precipitation deficit was <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atmospheric-rivers-take-chunk-out-california-drought">just about erased by the atmospheric rivers</a> that caused so much flooding in December and January. By March, the snowpack across the Sierra Nevada was <a href="https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=PLOT_SWC">well above the historical averages</a> – and <a href="https://www.drought.gov/topics/snow-drought">more than 200%</a> of average in some areas. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California announced it was <a href="https://www.mwdh2o.com/press-releases/metropolitan-board-rescinds-emergency-conservation-mandate-imposed-on-dozens-of-communities">ending emergency water restrictions</a> for nearly 7 million people on March 15.</p>
<p>It seems as though most of the surface water drought – drought involving streams and reservoirs – could be eliminated by summer in California and the Great Basin, across Nevada and western Utah. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two images of Lake Oroville, from November 2022 to late January 2023 show a sharp decline in water levels and a wide ring around the edge." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515503/original/file-20230315-352-zcwyhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515503/original/file-20230315-352-zcwyhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515503/original/file-20230315-352-zcwyhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515503/original/file-20230315-352-zcwyhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515503/original/file-20230315-352-zcwyhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515503/original/file-20230315-352-zcwyhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515503/original/file-20230315-352-zcwyhd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The early 2023 storms likely could have filled Lake Oroville, one of California’s largest reservoirs. But reservoirs are also essential for flood management, so managers balance how much water to retain and how much to release.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150953/reservoirs-rise-but-groundwater-woes-remain">NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But that’s only surface water. Drought also affects groundwater, and those effects will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126917">take longer to alleviate</a>.</p>
<p>Studies in California have shown that, even after wet years like 2017 and 2019, the groundwater systems <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030352">did not fully recover</a> from the previous drought, in part because of years of overpumping groundwater for agriculture, and the aquifers were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35582-x">not fully recharging</a>.</p>
<p>In that sense, the drought is not over. But at the broader scale for the region, a lot of the drought impacts that people experience will be lessened or almost gone by this summer. </p>
<h2>The Colorado River Basin</h2>
<p>Similar to the Sierra Nevada, the Upper Colorado River Basin – Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and northwestern New Mexico – has a healthy snowpack this year, and it’s looking like a very good water year there. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516972/original/file-20230322-24-pk37ff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing highest snow water equivalent in California, the Great Basin and Arizona" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516972/original/file-20230322-24-pk37ff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516972/original/file-20230322-24-pk37ff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516972/original/file-20230322-24-pk37ff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516972/original/file-20230322-24-pk37ff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516972/original/file-20230322-24-pk37ff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516972/original/file-20230322-24-pk37ff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516972/original/file-20230322-24-pk37ff.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=973&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The snow water equivalent, a measure of snowpack, was over 200% of average in several areas on March 21, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.drought.gov/topics/snow-drought">Drought.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But one single good water year is not going to fill <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150111/lake-mead-keeps-dropping">Lake Mead</a> and <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150249/lake-powell-still-shrinking">Lake Powell</a>. Most of the region relies on those two reservoirs, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-dead-pool-a-water-expert-explains-182495">have declined to worrying levels</a> over the past two decades.</p>
<p>Two good water years won’t do it either. Over the next decade, most years will have to be above average to begin to fill those giant reservoirs. <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/colorado-river-is-in-danger-of-a-parched-future/">Rising temperatures and drying</a> will make that even harder. </p>
<p>So, that system is still going to be dealing with a lot of the same long-term drought impacts that it has been seeing. The reservoirs will likely rise some, but nowhere close to capacity.</p>
<h2>The Pacific Northwest</h2>
<p>The Pacific Northwest isn’t having as much rain and snow, and it’s a little drier there. But it’s <a href="https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/wa_swepctnormal_update.pdf">close to average</a>, so there’s not a huge concern there, at least not right now.</p>
<p><iframe id="de2oY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/de2oY/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Forests, range land and the fire risk</h2>
<p>Drought can also have longer-term impacts on ecosystems, particularly forest health.</p>
<p>The Sierra Nevada range has seen <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0388-5">large-scale tree die-offs</a> with the drought in recent years, <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd1088611.pdf">including in northern areas</a> around Lake Tahoe and Reno that weren’t as affected by the previous drought. Whether the recent die-offs there are due to the severity of the current drought or lingering effects from the past droughts is an open question. </p>
<p>Even with a wet winter, it’s not clear how soon the forests will recover.</p>
<p>Rangelands, since they are mostly grasses, can recover in a few months. The <a href="https://gbdash.dri.edu/forecasts.php">soil moisture is really high</a> in a lot of these areas, so range conditions should be good across the West – at least going into summer. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Dead and dying trees with yellow needles on a forest ridge." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514984/original/file-20230313-23-va5wq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514984/original/file-20230313-23-va5wq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514984/original/file-20230313-23-va5wq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514984/original/file-20230313-23-va5wq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514984/original/file-20230313-23-va5wq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514984/original/file-20230313-23-va5wq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514984/original/file-20230313-23-va5wq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Drought and bark beetles have killed millions of trees across California in recent years, contributing to wildfire risk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dead-and-dying-trees-are-seen-in-a-forest-stressed-by-news-photo/472531110">David McNew/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the West has another really hot, dry summer, however, the drought could ramp up again, particularly in the Northwest and California. And then communities will have to <a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2021AGUFM.H53G..06H/abstract">think about fire risk</a>.</p>
<p>Right now, there’s a <a href="https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm">below-normal likelihood of big fires</a> in the Southwest for early spring due to lots of soil moisture and snowpack.</p>
<p>In the higher-elevation mountains and forests, the above-average snowpack is likely to last longer than it has in recent years, so those regions will likely have a later start to the fire season. But lower elevations, like the Great Basin’s shrub- and grassland-dominated ecosystem, could see fire danger starting earlier in the year if the land dries out.</p>
<h2>Long-term outlooks aren’t necessarily reliable</h2>
<p>By a lot of atmospheric measures, California appears to be coming <a href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230314/20230314_usdm.png">out of drought</a>, and the drought feels like it’s ending elsewhere. But it’s hard to say when exactly the drought is over. Studies suggest the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7513">West’s hydroclimate is becoming more variable</a> in its swings from drought to deluge.</p>
<p>Drought is also hard to forecast, particularly <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_discussion.php">long term</a>. Researchers can get a pretty good sense of conditions one month out, but the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and weather make longer-range outlooks less reliable.</p>
<p>We saw that this year. The <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina">initial forecast</a> was for a dry winter 2023 in much of the West. But in California, Arizona and New Mexico, the opposite happened.</p>
<p>Seasonal forecasts tend to rely heavily on whether it’s <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html">an El Niño or La Niña year</a>, involving sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific that can affect the jet stream and atmospheric conditions around the world. During La Niña – the pattern we saw from 2020 until <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">March 2023</a> – the Southwest tends to be drier and the Pacific Northwest wetter.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">NOAA explains El Niño and La Niña.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But that pattern <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/did-la-ni%C3%B1a-drench-southwest-united-states-early-winter-202223">doesn’t always set up</a> in exactly the same way and in the same place, as we saw this year. </p>
<p>There is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7513">a lot more going on in the atmosphere</a> and the oceans on a short-term scale that can dominate the La Niña pattern. This year’s <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/atmospheric-rivers-hit-west-coast">series of atmospheric rivers</a> has been one example. </p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article was updated on March 22, 2023, with the latest snowpack map.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dan McEvoy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Reservoirs and streams are in good shape in California and the Great Basin, but groundwater and ecosystems are another story. And then there’s the Colorado River Basin.Dan McEvoy, Associate Research Professor in Climatology, Desert Research InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1976692023-02-28T13:25:15Z2023-02-28T13:25:15ZWolf restoration in Colorado shows how humans are rethinking their relationships with wild animals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512301/original/file-20230226-1807-nfapm8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=58%2C9%2C6416%2C4465&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A gray wolf in Yellowstone National Park.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nps.gov/media/photo/gallery-item.htm?pg=0&id=ceaf48b2-2bbd-465e-8371-c9d722b2c7a4&gid=25c97bd8-155d-451f-675e208be082fe26">NPS/Jim Peaco</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2057065-the-15-biggest-comebacks-in-sports">sports</a> to <a href="https://www.insider.com/celebrity-career-comebacks-2018-5#eminem-released-a-comeback-album-in-2017-16">pop culture</a>, there are few themes more appealing than a good comeback. They happen in nature, too. Even with the Earth <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/">losing species at a historic rate</a>, some animals have defied the trend toward extinction and started refilling their old ecological niches.</p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jn11FLMAAAAJ&hl=vi">philosopher based in Montana</a> and specialize in environmental ethics. For my new book, “<a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262047562/">Tenacious Beasts: Wildlife Recoveries That Change How We Think About Animals</a>,” I spent three years looking at wildlife comebacks across North America and Europe and considering the lessons they offer. In every case, whether the returnee is a bison, humpback whale, beaver, salmon, sea otter or wolf, the recovery has created an opportunity for humans to profoundly rethink how we live with these animals. </p>
<p>One place to see the rethink in action is Colorado, where voters <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_Proposition_114,_Gray_Wolf_Reintroduction_Initiative_(2020)">approved a ballot measure in 2020</a> mandating the reintroduction of gray wolves west of the Continental Divide. Colorado’s Parks and Wildlife Agency has released a <a href="https://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Wolves/DRAFT-CO-Wolf-Plan.pdf">draft plan</a> that calls for moving 30 to 50 gray wolves from other Rocky Mountain states into northwest Colorado over five years, starting in 2024.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aldoleopold.org/about/aldo-leopold/">Aldo Leopold</a>, the famed conservationist and professor of game management at the University of Wisconsin, believed that moral beliefs <a href="https://www.aldoleopold.org/post/understanding-land-ethic/">evolve over time</a> to become more inclusive of the natural world. And what’s happening in Colorado suggests Leopold was right. Human attitudes toward wolves have clearly evolved since the mid-1940s, when <a href="https://extension.colostate.edu/topic-areas/people-predators/wolves-in-colorado-history-and-status-8-007/">bounties, mass poisoning and trapping</a> eradicated wolves from the state.</p>
<p>Recovering animals encounter a world that is markedly different from the one in which they declined, especially in terms of how people think about wildlife. Here are several reasons I see why societal attitudes toward wolves have changed. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Wolves released in northwest Colorado will wear GPS collars that enable wildlife managers to track them.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The importance of keystone species</h2>
<p>The idea that certain influential species, which ecologists call <a href="https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/keystone-species-15786127/">keystone species</a>, can significantly alter the ecosystems around them first <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4156.1058">appeared in scientific literature in 1974</a>. Bison, sea otters, beavers, elephants and wolves all exert this power. One way in which wolves wield influence is by preying on coyotes, which produces <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/Z08-136">ripple effects across the system</a>. Fewer coyotes means more rodents, which in turn means better hunting success for birds of prey.</p>
<p>Wolves also cause nervous behaviors among their prey. Some scientists believe that newly returned predators create a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2019.01.004">landscape of fear</a>” among prey species – a term that isn’t positive or negative, just descriptive. This idea has shifted thinking about predators. For example, elk avoid some areas when wolves are around, resulting in ecological changes that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3515-z">cascade down from the top</a>. Vegetation can recover, which in turn <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/the-big-scientific-debate-trophic-cascades.htm">may benefit other species</a>. </p>
<h2>Insights into pack dynamics</h2>
<p>Animal behavioral science research has provided pointers for better wolf management. Studies show that wolf packs are less likely to prey on livestock <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113505">if their social structure remains intact</a>. This means that ranchers and wildlife managers should take care not to remove the pack’s breeding pair when problems occur. Doing so can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2597">fragment the pack</a> and send dispersing wolves into new territories. </p>
<p>Wildlife agencies also have access to years of data from close observation of wolf behavior in places like <a href="https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/wolves.htm">Yellowstone National Park</a>, where wolves were reintroduced starting in 1995. This research offers insights into the wolf’s <a href="https://greystonebooks.com/collections/rick-mcintyre">intelligence and social complexity</a>. All of this information helps to show how people can live successfully alongside them. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1626973564565098496"}"></div></p>
<h2>Predators provide economic value</h2>
<p>Research has also demonstrated that wolves provide economic benefits to states and communities. Wisconsin researchers discovered that changes in deer behavior due to the presence of wolves have saved millions of dollars in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2023251118">avoided deer collisions with cars</a>. These savings far exceed what it costs the state to manage wolves. </p>
<p>Wolf recovery has been shown to be <a href="https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3577&context=icwdm_usdanwrc">a net economic benefit</a> in areas of the U.S. West where they have returned. The dollars they attract from wolf-watchers, photographers and foreign visitors have provided a valuable new income stream in many communities. </p>
<p>Predators do kill livestock, but improved tracking has helped to put these losses in perspective. Montana Board of Livestock numbers show that wolves, grizzly bears and mountain lions caused the loss of <a href="https://liv.mt.gov/Attached-Agency-Boards/Livestock-Loss-Board/Livestock-Loss-Statistics-2022">131 cattle and 137 sheep</a> in the state in 2022. This is from a total of 2,200,000 cattle and 190,000 sheep. Of the 131 cattle, 36 were confirmed to be taken by wolves – 0.0016% of the statewide herd. </p>
<p>According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, dogs, foxes and coyotes in Montana <a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Montana/Publications/News_Releases/2021/MT-Sheep-Predator-Loss-02102021.pdf">all killed more sheep and lambs than wolves did</a> in 2020. Even eagles were three times more deadly to sheep and lambs than wolves were. </p>
<p>Actual costs to ranchers are certainly higher than these numbers suggest. The presence of wolves <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aat100">causes livestock to lose weight</a> because the animals feed more nervously when wolves are around. Ranchers also lose sleep as they worry about wolves attacking their livestock and guard dogs. And clearly, low statewide kills are small comfort to a rancher who loses a dozen or more animals in one year. Margins are always tight in the livestock business.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A northern Colorado rancher discusses options for protecting his cattle from wolves, which already are naturally present in the state.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What’s more, predators’ economic impacts don’t end with ranching. In Colorado, for example, elk numbers are likely to decline after wolves are reintroduced. This may affect state wildlife agency budgets that rely on license fees from elk hunters. It may also affect hunting outfitters’ incomes. </p>
<p>In my view, voters who supported bringing wolves back to Colorado should remain deeply aware of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106656">the full distribution of costs</a> and support proactive compensation schemes for losses. They should be mindful that support for wolf reintroduction <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-colorado-bring-back-wolves-its-up-to-voters-147244">varies drastically between urban and rural communities</a> and should insist that effective mechanisms are in place ahead of time to ensure fair sharing of the economic burdens that wolves generate.</p>
<h2>A new ethical playing field</h2>
<p>Despite these complexities, the idea of the “big bad wolf” clearly no longer dominates Americans’ thinking. And the wolf is not alone. Social acceptance of many other wildlife species <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13493">is also increasing</a>. For example, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.12885">2023 study</a> found that between <a href="https://www.umt.edu/news/2023/02/020623bear.php">80% and 90% of Montanans</a> believed grizzly bears – which are recovering and expanding their presence there – have a right to exist. </p>
<p>Aldo Leopold famously claimed to have experienced an epiphany when he shot a wolf in New Mexico in the 1920s and saw “<a href="https://mountainscholar.org/bitstream/handle/10217/178142/FACF_Rolston_Rediscovering-RethinkingGreenFire.pdf">a fierce green fire</a>” dying in her eyes. In reality, his attitude took several more decades to change. Humans may have <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Man-the-Hunted-Primates-Predators-and-Human-Evolution-Expanded-Edition/Hart-Sussman/p/book/9780813344034">an ingrained evolutionary disposition</a> to fear carnivorous predators like wolves, but the change ended up being real for Leopold, and it lasted.</p>
<p>Leopold, who died in 1948, did not live to see many wildlife species recover, but I believe he would have regarded what’s happening now as an opportunity for Americans’ moral growth. Because Leopold knew that ethics, like animals, are always evolving.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher J. Preston has received funding from the National Science Foundation, Humanities Montana, and the Kone Foundation. </span></em></p>Less than a century ago, Colorado hunted, trapped and poisoned all the wolves within its borders. Today it’s restoring them – a change that reflects a profound shift in human thinking.Christopher J. Preston, Professor of Philosophy, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1973842023-02-01T16:00:30Z2023-02-01T16:00:30ZWestern wildfires destroyed 246% more homes and buildings over the past decade – fire scientists explain what’s changing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507476/original/file-20230201-25-abby5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4456%2C2972&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The fire risk goes beyond rising temperatures and dry conditions.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-shady-fire-can-be-seen-on-the-hillside-behind-homes-in-news-photo/1228763017">Samuel Corum / AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It can be tempting to think that the recent wildfire disasters in communities across the West were unlucky, one-off events, but evidence is accumulating that points to a trend.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">new study</a>, we found a 246% increase in the number of homes and structures destroyed by wildfires in the contiguous Western U.S. between the past two decades, 1999-2009 and 2010-2020.</p>
<p>This trend is strongly influenced by major fires in <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2017/">2017</a>, <a href="https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/92344/2018-fire-season-in-the-western-united-states">2018</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-year-the-west-was-burning-how-the-2020-wildfire-season-got-so-extreme-148804">2020</a>, including destructive fires in Paradise and Santa Rosa, California, and in Colorado, Oregon and Washington. In fact, in nearly every Western state, more homes and buildings were destroyed by wildfire over the past decade than the decade before, revealing increasing vulnerability to wildfire disasters.</p>
<p>What explains the increasing home and structure loss? </p>
<p>Surprisingly, it’s not just the trend of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc0020">burning more area</a>, or simply <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001795">more homes being built where fires historically burned</a>. While those trends play a role, increasing home and structure loss is outpacing both. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Streets with burned cars and nothing left of homes but ash." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Entire neighborhoods were reduced to ash when a wildfire spread into Santa Rosa, California, in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-aerial-view-of-homes-that-were-destroyed-by-the-tubbs-news-photo/860298164">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As fire scientists, we have spent decades studying the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6HxI4VAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">causes</a> and <a href="https://earthlab.colorado.edu/our-team/max-cook">impacts of wildfires</a>, in both <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=LyjuxcEAAAAJ&hl=en">the recent</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Tmjced4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao%22%22">more distant past</a>. It’s clear that the current <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/wildfire-crisis">wildfire crisis</a> in the Western U.S. has human fingerprints all over it. In our view, now more than ever, humanity needs to understand its role.</p>
<h2>Wildfires are becoming more destructive</h2>
<p>From 1999 to 2009, an average of 1.3 structures were destroyed for every 4 square miles burned (1,000 hectares, or 10 square kilometers). This average more than doubled to 3.4 during the following decade, 2010-2020.</p>
<p>Nearly every Western state lost more structures for every square mile burned, with the exception of New Mexico and Arizona. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Charts showing rising trend of loses from fires." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">Adapted from Higuera, et al., PNAS Nexus 2023</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Humans increasingly cause destructive wildfires</h2>
<p>Given the damage from the wildfires you hear about on the news, you may be surprised to learn that <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">88% of wildfires in the West over the past two decades destroyed zero structures</a>. This is, in part, because the majority of area burned (65%) is still due to lightning-ignited wildfires, often in remote areas. </p>
<p>But among wildfires that do burn homes or other structures, humans play a disproportionate role – 76% over the past two decades were started by unplanned human-related ignitions, including backyard burning, downed power lines and campfires. The area burned from human-related ignitions rose 51% between 1999-2009 and 2010-2020.</p>
<p>This is important because wildfires started by human activities or infrastructure have <a href="https://theconversation.com/humans-ignite-almost-every-wildfire-that-threatens-homes-145997">vastly different impacts</a> and characteristics that can make them more destructive. </p>
<p>Unplanned human ignitions typically <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3030050">occur near buildings</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30030-2">tend to burn in grasses</a> that dry out easily and burn quickly. And people have built more homes and buildings in areas surrounded by flammable vegetation, with the number of structures <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">up by 40% over the past two decades across the West</a>, with every state contributing to the trend.</p>
<p>Human-caused wildfires also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114">expand the fire season</a> beyond the summer months when lightning is most common, and they are particularly destructive during late summer and fall when they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092520">overlap with periods of high winds</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, of all the wildfires that destroy structures in the West, human-caused events typically <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">destroy over 10 times more</a> structures for every square mile burned, compared to lighting-caused events.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing where fires burned in 1999-2009 and 2010-2020, comparing lightning-sparked to human-ignition and the amount of structures burned from each. More structures were burned in human-started fires." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">Adapted from Higuera, et al., PNAS Nexus 2023</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The December 2021 Marshall Fire that destroyed more than 1,000 homes and buildings in the suburbs near Boulder, Colorado, <a href="https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/wildfire/marshall-fire/marshall-fire-cause-investigation-ignition-points/73-18bfe8fa-b034-4879-98ab-32af0008a1ec">fit this pattern to a T</a>. Powerful winds <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-colorado-fires-cap-a-year-of-climate-disasters-in-2021-with-one-side-of-the-country-too-wet-the-other-dangerously-dry-173402">sent the fire</a> racing through neighborhoods and vegetation that was unusually dry for late December. </p>
<p>As human-caused <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113">climate change</a> leaves vegetation more flammable later into each year, the consequences of accidental ignitions are magnified.</p>
<h2>Putting out all fires isn’t the answer</h2>
<p>This might make it easy to think that if we just put out all fires, we would be safer. Yet a focus on <a href="https://wildfiretoday.com/2022/03/03/bill-introduced-to-require-suppression-of-all-us-forest-service-fires/">stopping wildfires at all costs</a> is, in part, what <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-smokey-bear-to-climate-change-the-future-of-wildland-fire-management-45082">got the West into its current predicament</a>. Fire risks just accumulate for the future.</p>
<p>The amount of flammable vegetation has increased in many regions because of an absence of burning due to emphasizing fire suppression, preventing <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/58212">Indigenous fire stewardship</a> and a fear of fire in any context, well exemplified by <a href="https://theconversation.com/smokey-the-bear-is-still-keeping-his-watchful-eye-on-americas-forests-after-75-years-on-the-job-120207">Smokey Bear</a>. Putting out every fire quickly removes the positive, <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/ecological-benefits-fire">beneficial effects of fires</a> in Western ecosystems, including clearing away hazardous fuels so future fires burn less intensely.</p>
<h2>How to reduce risk of destructive wildfires</h2>
<p>The good news is that people have the ability to affect change, now. Preventing wildfire disasters necessarily means minimizing unplanned human-related ignitions. And it requires more than <a href="https://smokeybear.com/">Smokey Bear’s</a> message that “only you can prevent forest fires.” Infrastructure, like downed power lines, <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/5121/campfire_cause.pdf">has caused</a> some of the deadliest wildfires in recent years. </p>
<p>Reducing wildfire risks across communities, states and regions <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/58436">requires transformative changes</a> beyond individual actions. We need <a href="https://deloitte.wsj.com/articles/fighting-wildfires-with-innovation-01669832378?mod=Deloitte_sus_wsjsf_h1&tesla=y">innovative approaches</a> and <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5c0c">perspectives</a> for <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-wildfire-resistant-communities-in-a-warming-world-174582">how we build</a>, provide power and <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/64f55848f690452da6c58e5a888ff283">manage lands</a>, as well as mechanisms that ensure changes work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205825">across socioeconomic levels</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dot chart showing how each state's area and buildings burned changed. Calfiornia, Oregon and the West overall had above average loss and above average burning. Colorado had above average loss and below average burning." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=877&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=877&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=877&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">Adapted from Higuera, et al., PNAS Nexus 2023</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Actions to reduce risk will vary, since how people live and how wildfires burn vary widely across the West. </p>
<p>States with large tracts of land with little development, like Idaho and Nevada, can accommodate widespread burning, largely from lighting ignition, with little structure loss. </p>
<p>California and Colorado, for example, require different approaches and priorities. Growing communities can <a href="https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/building-costs-codes/%22%22">carefully plan if and how they build</a> in flammable landscapes, support <a href="https://fireadapted.org/resource/potential-operational-delineations/">wildfire management for risks and benefits</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/bringing-tech-innovation-to-wildfires-4-recommendations-for-smarter-firefighting-as-megafires-menace-the-us-162178">improve firefighting efforts</a> when wildfires do threaten communities.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959">Climate change</a> remains the elephant in the room. Left unaddressed, warmer, drier conditions will exacerbate challenges of living with wildfires. And yet we can’t wait. Addressing climate change can be paired with <a href="https://theconversation.com/well-see-more-fire-seasons-like-2020-heres-a-strategy-for-managing-our-nations-flammable-landscapes-149323">reducing risks immediately to live more safely</a> in an increasingly flammable West.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197384/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Higuera receives funding from the federally funded Joint Fire Sciences Program, United States Geological Survey, and National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Balch receives funding from NSF, Deloitte, JFSP, OPP, and USGS.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maxwell Cook receives funding from the federally funded Joint Fire Sciences Program and the Earth Lab at University of Colorado Boulder, and is a student member of the Ecological Society of America and the American Geophysical Union.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natasha Stavros receives funding from NSF, NASA, Southern California Edison, Deloitte, and AXA XL. She is affiliated with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado Boulder, owns a company called WKID Solutions LLC and serves as a member on the Hazard Mitigation Enterprise Board for the Colorado State Emergency Response Program.</span></em></p>More homes are burning in wildfires in nearly every Western state. The reason? Humans.Philip Higuera, Professor of Fire Ecology, University of MontanaJennifer Balch, Associate Professor of Geography and Director, Earth Lab, University of Colorado BoulderMaxwell Cook, Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Geography, University of Colorado BoulderNatasha Stavros, Director of the Earth Lab Analytics Hub, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1969262022-12-26T16:28:12Z2022-12-26T16:28:12ZHomes that survived the Marshall Fire 1 year ago harbored another disaster inside – here’s what we’ve learned about this insidious urban wildfire risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502431/original/file-20221221-26-1amzrk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C47%2C4576%2C2918&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Homes that survived the Marshall Fire didn't come through unscathed.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/thornton-firefighter-checks-a-hot-spot-in-the-remains-of-a-news-photo/1370768947">Matthew Jonas/MediaNews Group/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of a collaboration with <a href="https://boulderreportinglab.org/">Boulder Reporting Lab</a>, The <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/cej/">Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder</a>, <a href="https://www.kunc.org/">KUNC</a> public radio and <a href="https://theconversation.com/us">The Conversation U.S.</a> to explore the impacts of the devastating Marshall Fire one year after the blaze. The series can be found at the <a href="https://boulderreportinglab.org/category/no-return-marshall-fire">Boulder Reporting Lab</a>.</em></p>
<p>On Dec. 30, 2021, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/01/1069610995/fires-outside-of-denver-were-the-most-destructive-in-colorado-history">one of the most destructive wildfires</a> on record in Colorado swept through neighborhoods just a few miles from our offices at the University of Colorado Boulder. The flames <a href="https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/wildfire/1084-homes-destroyed-marshall-fire/73-5fc58914-54ae-4eb2-a368-4a88e6535c5f">destroyed over 1,000 buildings</a>, yet when we drove through the affected neighborhoods, some houses were still completely intact right next to homes where nothing was left to burn.</p>
<p>Although the people who lived in these still-standing homes were spared the loss of everything they owned, when they returned after the fire, <a href="https://boulderreportinglab.org/2022/12/06/no-return-the-unseen-toll-of-the-marshall-fires-standing-home-survivors/">they found another disaster</a>.</p>
<p>Noxious smells and ash on their windowsills and doorways initially made their homes unlivable – and potentially hazardous to human health. Some of these residents were still reporting health problems from being in their homes months later, even after the homes had been cleaned.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man uses a garden hose to try to put out flames in the yard of a home. Smoke rises from the ground about 10 feet from the house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502432/original/file-20221221-22-jnpcn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People tried to save houses as the wildfire hopscotched through neighborhoods in Superior and Louisville, Colorado.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/good-samaritan-tries-to-put-out-fire-around-a-house-near-news-photo/1362040437">Helen H. Richardson/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We study wildfires and their <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4Y8BuqsAAAAJ&hl=en">health effects</a>, and we knew people who lost their homes in the Marshall Fire. We also knew we had to act fast to study the fire’s impact so lessons from the Marshall Fire could help homeowners elsewhere avoid similar hazards in the future.</p>
<h2>Dangerous chemicals absorbed into homes</h2>
<p>Early on, because of our expertise on air quality and health, members of our community reached out to us to ask how they could remediate their homes from the smells and hidden ash, and what health risks they should be concerned about.</p>
<p>But this fire was nothing like the wildfires that our research groups at the University of Colorado had previously studied. Most of what burned on that day was human-made rather than vegetation. When human-made materials like electronics, vehicles and home furnishings burn, they <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26460/the-chemistry-of-fires-at-the-wildland-urban-interface">release different types of air pollutants</a> and may affect health differently compared to when vegetation burns.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="All that remains of a house is its satellite dish and air conditioner on an ashy lot. Other homes are still standing in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502433/original/file-20221221-25-zfvrp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In many of the homes, everything burned – wallboard, siding, asphalt shingles, electronics and even vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/satellite-dish-stands-nears-the-remains-of-the-wildflower-news-photo/1237485825">Marc Piscotty/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The outdoor air pollution was less of an issue because the wildfire was short-lived – the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/bou/HighWinds12_30_2021">powerful winds that fueled the fire</a> quieted down and changed direction about 11 hours after the fire started, and the <a href="https://kdvr.com/news/local/photos-marshall-fire/">first snow of the season</a> finally fell. This snowfall ended the fire and cleaned the outside air of pollution.</p>
<p>The key concern was what chemicals lingered inside the undestroyed homes – soaked up into the fabrics of carpets, sofas, drywall, air vents and more – that would slowly release into the home for some time after the fire.</p>
<p>We hypothesized that there were lots of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) – toxic gases, which were emitted during the fire that had seeped into homes and become embedded in the fabrics and building materials. Of particular concern were aromatic compounds like <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S147020451730832X?via%3Dihub">benzene, a known carcinogen</a>, and <a href="https://www.who.int/europe/publications/i/item/9789289056533">polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons</a> (PAHs), which are emitted from wildfires and have known health effects. In addition, we were worried about metals in the ash and soot deposited in homes, and the potential for it to become suspended in the air again when people returned and heating systems came on.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial view of several streets with a lake in the background. Several homes are still standing among many others that were reduced to ashes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502435/original/file-20221221-19-947u5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In several neighborhoods, the fire left homes standing next door to burned structures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-aerial-view-burned-homes-sit-in-a-neighborhood-news-photo/1237535531">Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite knowing that some of these gases were toxic, we did not know the levels inside the homes, or what remediation efforts to suggest to residents, because little scientific research had been published on <a href="https://www.usfa.fema.gov/wui/what-is-the-wui.html">wildland-urban interface</a> <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c07015">fires like this one</a>. We realized that we needed to do some of that research to help our own community – and the next community affected by a wildland-urban interface fire.</p>
<h2>Collecting evidence inside</h2>
<p>Many community members volunteered their homes for study sites. When we toured these still-standing homes 10 days after the fire, we saw what a rapid evacuation looks like, with lunch in the process of being made, laundry being folded, toys in the middle of pretend play … and dust, lots and lots of dust resulting from the fire.</p>
<p>We collected dust samples in about a dozen homes and then analyzed the samples in our labs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502236/original/file-20221220-12-80jtiy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wildfire ash and dust entered homes under doors and around windows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of Joost de Gouw</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We looked for molecules that could help us think about the origin of the dust. Not surprisingly, the dust was a combination of windblown soil, ash from the fire and typical household dust. That ash was high in typical combustion byproducts that are known to be toxic, and there was lots of ash, so cleaning up all the dust was important to remediation.</p>
<p>The homes that had been exposed to heavy smoke also still smelled like a chemical fire. A colleague likened it to the smell of gunpowder.</p>
<p>As quickly as we could, we moved a state-of-the-art mass spectrometer into one of the most heavily affected homes in Superior and made measurements of airborne pollutants for five weeks.</p>
<p>Shortly after the Marshall Fire, we found that many pollutants, including PAHs, were indeed at higher levels inside smoke-affected homes than we would expect, but in early February these pollutants had decreased to more normal levels.</p>
<p>We researched ways in which people could protect themselves and found through experiments that air filters with activated carbon could provide excellent temporary relief from the indoor pollutants. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502242/original/file-20221220-11-tj934a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A chart shows benzene levels in a smoke-infiltrated home decreased when an air cleaner with a carbon-activated filter was running, but then rose again when the air cleaner was turned off.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Joost de Gouw</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also observed the results of professional remediation efforts. We are still poring over the air pollution data to understand which materials that burned, such as plastics, car tires, furniture, carpet and roofing material, contributed the most to the air pollutants we observed in the homes.</p>
<h2>Continuing health effects</h2>
<p>In addition to the air pollution and ash concerns, people living in the neighborhoods that burned are concerned about their health.</p>
<p>In an initial survey, residents reported a variety of symptoms that they think may be due to the smoke or air quality concerns of the fire, with the most common being itchy or watery eyes, headaches, dry cough and sore throat. More than half of respondents also reported disrupted sleep due to the stress of the fire, and almost a quarter attributed headaches at least in part to the stress of the event. </p>
<p>The physical symptoms could be due to the exposure during the fire. However, of those who have moved back into smoke-damaged homes, they report the symptoms most often inside their homes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman holds a young girl on her hip as she talks with firefighters who are sitting in a truck with " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502436/original/file-20221221-20-mt36xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Firefighters and residents who returned to still-standing homes were exposed to smoke and gases from the fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kennedy-reynolds-of-erie-colorado-holds-her-daughter-belle-news-photo/1237485835">Marc Piscotty/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This fall, more than nine months after the fire, some residents reported rashes and burning sensations despite having cleaned their homes of ash and the smell of VOCs having dissipated. Another round of surveys is now helping gather more information about lingering symptoms. In addition to physical health symptoms, we are also asking questions about mental health, which is a growing concern from so-called natural disasters. </p>
<p>While we know that the VOC concentrations inside the homes that we worked in have returned to normal levels, some individuals may be more sensitive than others. And while there has been research into the health effects of some VOCs, <a href="https://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/128169/e94535.pdf">not all have been studied extensively</a>, nor have studies looked at the health impacts of combinations of VOCs. </p>
<p>As global temperatures rise and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1718850115">more people move into</a> once-wild landscapes at the edges of cities, the <a href="https://sciencebrief.org/uploads/reviews/ScienceBrief_Review_WILDFIRES_Sep2020.pdf">risk of wildfires spreading into urban areas rises</a>. We hope that our work can help people deal with the air pollution aftermath of future blazes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196926/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colleen E. Reid received funding for this work from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, the National Science Foundation, and the Harvard JPB Environmental Health Fellowship. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joost de Gouw used funding from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, the National Science Foundation and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation for this work.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Hannigan receives funding for this work from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science and the National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Noxious smells and blowing ash initially made the homes unlivable. But even after their homes were cleaned, some residents still reported health effects months later.Colleen E. Reid, Assistant Professor of Geography, University of Colorado BoulderJoost de Gouw, Professor of Chemistry, University of Colorado BoulderMichael Hannigan, Professor, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1967922022-12-23T16:42:06Z2022-12-23T16:42:06ZCalling Deion Sanders a sellout ignores the growing role of clout-chasing in college sports<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501978/original/file-20221219-14-jjx1kn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=140%2C39%2C5055%2C3383&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jackson State Tigers coach Deion Sanders greets right tackle Deontae Graham during the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 17, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jackson-state-tigers-coach-deion-sanders-greets-right-news-photo/1245687709?phrase=deion sanders&adppopup=true"> Austin McAfee/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For most college football coaches, the move from a mid-major conference to a Power Five conference would be met with widespread praise.</p>
<p>Not so for Deion Sanders.</p>
<p>When the Pro Football Hall of Famer <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/sports/ncaafootball/deion-sanders-colorado-jackson-state.html">announced he would be leaving Jackson State University</a>, where he has coached the football team since 2020, to become head coach at the University of Colorado Boulder, many ardent fans and supporters reacted with dismay and disbelief – particularly his fans and supporters from the Black community.</p>
<p>Jackson State is one of <a href="http://www.thehundred-seven.org/hbculist.html">107 historically Black colleges and universities</a>, or HBCUs. Some HBCU alumni and supporters <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6X9YNUMECA">saw Sanders as betraying the cause of rejuvenating HBCU sports</a> and returning them to a time when football greats such as <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RiceJe00.htm">Jerry Rice</a>, <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PaytWa00.htm">Walter Payton</a> and <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McNaSt00.htm">Steve McNair</a> attended HBCUs as a stepping stone to professional stardom. </p>
<p>Debates about whether he was a “<a href="https://eurweb.com/2022/deion-sanders-labelled-a-sellout/">sellout</a>,” a “traitor” and a “hypocrite” quickly surfaced on social media and in <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/deion-sanders-sell-experts-say-s-complicated-rcna60552">major media outlets</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1599059649889640448"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4gfj6hYAAAAJ&hl=en">As a scholar who specializes in Black culture</a>, I was struck by the ways in which this Sanders story was tied to a concept I write about called <a href="https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/18433">clout-chasing</a>. It’s a process in which cultural capital is harnessed on social media to attract media attention, likes, followers and fame. You’ll often see young people looking to launch careers as content creators described as <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/12/clout-definition-meme-influencers-social-capital-youtube/603895/">clout chasers</a>.</p>
<p>Institutions, however, can also chase clout. And I saw Jackson State doing just that when it hired Deion Sanders.</p>
<h2>Black Schools Matter</h2>
<p>Over the past decade – after the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement, the spread of national anthem protests and the murders of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor – HBCUs have received more attention and investment as places for the revitalization and advancement of the Black community.</p>
<p>In 2019, Black billionaire Robert Smith promised to pay the student loan debt of that year’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/22/morehouse-grads-thrive-after-student-debt-wiped-out.html#:%7E:text=It's%20something%20400%20Morehouse%20graduates,at%20their%20commencement%20in%202019">entire graduating class at Morehouse College</a>. In the summer of 2021, the Department of Education awarded <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/17/fact-sheet-the-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administrations-historic-investments-and-support-for-historically-black-colleges-and-universities/">more than US$500 million</a> in grants to HBCUs. Finally, President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan and other forms of pandemic relief have provided <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/17/fact-sheet-the-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administrations-historic-investments-and-support-for-historically-black-colleges-and-universities/">nearly $3.7 billion in relief funding to HBCUs</a>.</p>
<p>HBCU athletic departments have also received increased visibility. Though HBCU programs have always been overshadowed by schools in conferences like the Big Ten and SEC – what are known as <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10053822-ranking-the-college-football-power-5-conferences">Power Five conferences</a> – HBCU sports have started to receive more national television coverage. Top recruits <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/hbcus-appealing-high-profile-athletes/story?id=76210979">have started taking official visits to HBCUs</a> as they weigh which school to commit to. </p>
<p>In the summer of 2020, after star basketball recruit Makur Maker spurned offers from the University of Kentucky and UCLA to attend Howard University, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/sports/ncaabasketball/black-lives-matter-hbcus-college-athletes.html">The New York Times proclaimed</a> that a movement of top Black athletes attending HBCUs was underway.</p>
<h2>A star with staying power</h2>
<p>Like many, I grew up watching Deion Sanders play professional football and baseball. I idolized him. He wore gold chains, danced his way to the end zone, wore expensive suits and – most importantly – he was a celebrity who fully embraced Black popular culture. He was also one of the first athletes to understand that he was a brand off the field. </p>
<p>His appeal transcended race, gender and class, putting him in a rarefied group that includes Michael Jordan, Serena Williams and LeBron James.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two football players anticipate a pass." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502572/original/file-20221222-24-m5ztgk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Over the course of 14 seasons, defensive back Deion Sanders was elected to eight Pro Bowls.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dion-sanders-of-the-dallas-cowboys-guards-j-j-birden-of-the-news-photo/466184829?phrase=deion%20sanders&adppopup=true">Focus on Sport/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even after his <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SandDe00.htm">playing career</a> ended in 2005, Sanders’ star never dimmed. He had <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/07/deion-sanders-oprah-winfrey-reality-show">his own reality show</a> produced by Oprah, has served as a regular analyst on the NFL Network, and has acted as a pitchman for companies like Nike, Under Armour, American Airlines and Aflac.</p>
<p>Sanders has also seamlessly adapted to the social media era, regularly posting videos on Instagram to <a href="https://www.instagram.com/deionsanders/?hl=en">an audience of 3 million followers</a>. </p>
<p>Simply put, he is still one of the most famous people in the world. Like his younger counterparts with huge online followings – digital natives like <a href="https://www.instagram.com/obj/?hl=en">Odell Beckham Jr.</a> and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/melo/?hl=en">LaMelo Ball</a> – Sanders possesses an immense amount of <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/intellect/ghhs/2020/00000001/00000002/art00003?crawler=true&mimetype=application/pdf&casa_token=G0nsPOIRXqcAAAAA:6Ze57p_2E_kNntxCNSQc-b2DzuWpJ_KtqTy2MG3po7wCLDq0n28IhvClUFvj-Afz1xhgwuKNKa0">digital clout</a>. </p>
<h2>Coach Prime joins the HBCU ranks</h2>
<p>I was hardly surprised when Sanders made a quick splash in Jackson. </p>
<p>Fueled by the talents of his son, quarterback <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4432762/shedeur-sanders">Shedeur Sanders</a>, and former top high school recruit <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10059142-5-star-cb-travis-hunter-to-transfer-from-jsu-comments-on-deion-sanders-colorado">Travis Hunter</a>, Jackson State quickly attracted national attention as a HBCU powerhouse.</p>
<p>After a COVID-shortened 2020 season, Sanders, whose players affectionately call him <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10058741-coach-prime-trailer-drops-for-deion-sanders-jsu-football-docuseries-by-prime-video">Coach Prime</a>, led the school to two consecutive appearances at the Celebration Bowl, an annual game in which the champions of the two prominent HBCU conferences face off.</p>
<p>While boosting Jackson State’s profile, Sanders also presented himself as someone scholars like Brandon J. Manning have termed a “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZxJClMVBYU">race man</a>,” or a loyal member of the Black race who dedicates their life to directly contributing to the betterment of Black people. </p>
<p>Under the pretense of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxI848ELSEE">looking out for the future of HBCU athletics</a>, <a href="https://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=34896671">Sanders said</a> he would be better positioned than anybody to protect the legacy of HBCUs. Black student athletes, he argued, should choose to go to Jackson State because their association with him would not only give them clout, but also the kind of attention and encouragement that they could expect to receive from a Power Five program. </p>
<p>Yet it was always going to be close to impossible to keep Sanders at Jackson State if he consistently won. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/paul_finebaum_says_nick_saban_would_lose_sleep_over_deion_sanders_as_auburns_next_coach/s1_13132_37910995">Many suspected</a> that Sanders eventually wanted to compete against top-tier programs like the University of Alabama and the University of Georgia. In fact, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jz1YfvAw5Ow">during an October 2022 interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes</a>,” Sanders talked openly about listening to offers from bigger schools. </p>
<p>Despite these realities, many Black folk wanted to believe Sanders would be in it for the long haul. Now they’re dismayed, believing the momentum Sanders gave to HBCU athletics could come to a screeching halt.</p>
<h2>God changes his mind</h2>
<p>But unlike some prominent <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkqKkW2SxeE">Black cultural critics who derided Sanders’ decision</a>, I don’t think he’s a sellout. </p>
<p>Jackson State was arguably chasing some clout of its own when it hired Deion in the first place. At the time, Sanders was a coach with no experience beyond the high school level. He did, however, have plenty of experience performing – and winning – in the brightest of spotlights. Jackson State probably knew that taking a flier on an untested celebrity coach would be worth it: It would attract attention and, with it, money.</p>
<p>On the flip side, I also believe Sanders knew that he could build his coaching clout further at Jackson State by appealing to what sociologist Saida Grundy calls <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520340398/respectable">the Black respectability politics</a> and Christian values of HBCU campuses. You could see this <a href="https://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/jackson-state/2020/09/22/deion-sanders-says-why-he-took-jackson-state-job-good-morning-america/5863325002/">when he said</a> that God told him “to even the playing field” for those who attend Black schools.</p>
<p>It was a symbiotic arrangement all along: Sanders leveraged his clout to grow the program that embraced him, but he was also hoping to attract the attention of an even bigger program. </p>
<p>I believe Sanders ultimately did more good than harm in terms of raising the profile of HBCU athletics. Furthermore, one person was never going to catapult HBCUs to the prominence of Power Five programs. </p>
<p>Sanders is part of a bigger group of former professional players and coaches leading HBCU programs. Former NFL head coach Hue Jackson <a href="https://www.thenewsstar.com/story/sports/college/gsu/2022/02/15/hue-jackson-contract-grambling-state-football/6800931001/">now heads the football program</a> at Grambling State University; NFL Pro Bowler Eddie George <a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/college/2021/04/11/eddie-george-coach-tennessee-state-university-football-tsu-derrick-mason/7183662002/">currently mans the sidelines</a> at Tennessee State University; and Pro Football Hall of Famer <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35330809/hall-famer-ed-reed-head-coach-bethune-cookman">Ed Reed</a> was recently named the head coach at Bethune-Cookman. </p>
<p>If Sanders was a sellout, it was only in one sense: Jackson State football games routinely sold out during his tenure, <a href="https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/10/jackson-state-keeps-producing-jaw-dropping-attendance-under-coach-prime/">shattering attendance records for the program</a>.</p>
<p><em>This article has been edited to remove the mention of Cynthia Cooper-Dyke, who no longer serves as the head women’s basketball coach at Texas Southern University.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196792/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jabari M. Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Sanders deftly played the game of Black respectability politics during his short tenure, Jackson State had motives of its own when it hired the former NFL star.Jabari M. Evans, Assistant Professor of Race and Media, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1967172022-12-21T19:59:27Z2022-12-21T19:59:27ZLGBTQ Americans are 9 times more likely to be victimized by a hate crime<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/501790/original/file-20221219-22510-6k8ql8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=60%2C13%2C3035%2C2046&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Only about 1 in 3 LGBTQ victims of violent hate crimes seek professional help for mental health issues that emerge after an attack.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participant-seen-holding-a-rainbow-umbrella-at-the-protest-news-photo/1241559504?phrase=transgender protest USA&adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502464/original/file-20221221-24-nxjio5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0279363">our recent analysis</a> of the <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/programs/ncvs">National Crime Victimization Survey</a>, we found that the odds of being a violent hate crime victim for LGBTQ people was nine times greater than it was for cisgender and straight people from 2017 to 2019. </p>
<p>There were an average annual 6.6 violent hate crime victimizations per 1,000 LGBTQ people during this three year period.</p>
<p>In contrast, there were 0.6 violent hate crime victimizations per 1,000 cisgender and straight people. </p>
<p><a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/hate-crime-victimization-2005-2019">A hate crime</a> is an attack or threat of an attack that’s motivated by the victim’s perceived race, ethnicity, sexuality, gender or religion. Or it could include someone’s association with any of the previous categories, such as an anti-Muslim hate crime committed against <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/this-is-in-our-dna-how-sikh-americans-advocate-for-solidarity-while-campaigning-against-hate-crimes-prejudices">someone who is Sikh</a>.</p>
<p>The National Crime Victimization Survey is a nationally representative survey that asks over 200,000 people about non-fatal crimes that happened to them in the past year. Since 1999, it has asked victims if they suspected their victimization was motivated by certain biases, and if so, the reason for the bias. We use the National Crime Victimization Survey classification of hate crimes, which is consistent with <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/hate-crime-victimization-2005-2019">the Bureau of Justice Statistics classification</a>: victimizations that involve hate language, hate symbols, or were confirmed by police to be a hate crime.</p>
<p>Since 2017, the National Crime Victimization Survey has been documenting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba6910">sexual orientation and gender identity of respondents</a>. This has allowed us to estimate the rate of hate crimes against LGBTQ people for the first time.</p>
<h2>Physical and psychological repercussions</h2>
<p>Another notable finding from our study suggested that violent hate crimes involving LGBTQ victims have unique characteristics .</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764202046001003">Prior research has</a> suggested that LGBTQ victims of hate crime frequently did <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-4560.00263">not know the offender</a>. In our analyses, 49% of violent hate crimes with LGBTQ victims involved an attacker who was a close friend, family member, partner or former partner.</p>
<p>We also found that LGBTQ victims of violent hate crimes were more likely to have physical and psychological symptoms as a result of the attack when compared with LGBTQ victims of violent crimes that were not hate crimes. </p>
<p>For example, LGBTQ victims of violent hate crimes were four times more likely to feel worried or anxious as a result of the incident than LGBTQ victims of non-hate violence. Despite this, we found that only about 1 in 3 LGBTQ victims of violent hate crimes sought professional help for their symptoms. </p>
<h2>Hate crimes don’t just affect the victims</h2>
<p>Our findings complement a series of studies relying on the National Crime Victimization Survey that showed that LGBTQ people are generally victims of crimes <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba6910">at higher rates than cisgender and straight people</a>, with bisexual women having <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.306017">markedly higher victimization rates than lesbians</a>, and transgender people having <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.306099">higher victimization rates than cisgender people</a>.</p>
<p>Hate crimes do not just affect an individual – <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/legislation/hearings/the-rise-of-anti-lgbtqi-extremism-and-violence-in-the-united-states">whole communities can be affected by hate</a>. In what’s known as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12119-020-09710-y">collective trauma</a>,” LGBTQ people often internalize the violence inflicted on other members of the community.</p>
<p>LGTBQ people are still recovering from the November 2022 <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/watch/club-q-mass-shooting-survivors-testify-on-capitol-hill-in-hearing-on-anti-lgbtq-violence-157661253825">mass shooting at Club Q</a>, an LGBTQ bar in Colorado Springs. The accused shooter has been charged with <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/club-q-shooting-colorado-springs-anderson-lee-aldrich-charged/">48 counts of hate-motivated violence</a>. </p>
<p>Our findings allow us to more fully characterize the stories of LGBT victims – and the heightened danger they face across the country.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.rti.org/expert/lynn-langton">Lynn Langton</a> contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196717/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Ryan Flores receives funding from the Williams Institute at the UCLA School of Law as a Visiting Scholar and the Public Religion Research Institute as a Public Fellow. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilan Meyer and Rebecca Stotzer do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time, researchers have been able to produce estimates of the rate of hate crimes against LGBTQ people.Andrew Ryan Flores, Visiting Scholar at the Williams Institute and Assistant Professor of Government, American UniversityIlan Meyer, Distinguished Senior Scholar of Public Policy, University of California, Los AngelesRebecca Stotzer, Professor of Social Work, University of HawaiiLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1948042022-12-06T02:40:04Z2022-12-06T02:40:04ZSupreme Court signals sympathy with web designer opposed to same-sex marriage in free speech case<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499106/original/file-20221205-12-x28pde.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C8601%2C5755&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supreme Court case pits LGBTQ rights against right to discriminate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXSupremeCourtGayRights/d2cb8bc21a6842cfbeabb597936b55e2/photo?Query=(headline:APTOPIX%20OR%20slug:APTOPIX)%20AND%20supreme%20court&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=760&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In front of the Supreme Court justices on Dec. 5, 2022 was <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/303-creative-llc-v-elenis/">303 Creative LLC v. Elenis</a> – a major case regarding LGBTQ rights and free speech.</p>
<p>The petitioner, Colorado-based web designer Lorie Smith, is looking to expand her business, 303 Creative, by making wedding websites for couples that consist of one man and one woman. She wants to refuse wedding website services to same-sex couples planning to marry. Smith also wants to write on the 303 Creative website that she has been called by God to make wedding websites only for mixed-sex couples in order to promote “God’s true story of marriage.” </p>
<p>This would appear to violate the <a href="https://ccrd.colorado.gov/ccrd-home/regulatory-information">Colorado Anti-Discrimination Act</a>, a state law that protects against sexual-orientation discrimination in places that offer goods and services to the public. </p>
<p>Smith claims the law violates her First Amendment free speech rights. The state of Colorado disagrees. The U.S. 10th Circuit Court of Appeals also <a href="https://www.ca10.uscourts.gov/sites/ca10/files/opinions/010110553596.pdf">sided with Colorado</a> in July 2021. </p>
<p>During Dec. 5’s hearing, Supreme Court justices posed questions that provide some insight into what they think is legally relevant. The court’s conservative justices – who hold a majority on the bench – appeared sympathetic to Smith’s arguments. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://clasprofiles.wayne.edu/profile/hf1190">scholar who pays close attention</a> to the Supreme Court’s free speech and LGBTQ civil rights cases, I believe the case could have a significant impact on how federal courts handle cases where free speech rights appear to clash with anti-discrimination laws in the future.</p>
<p>Here are three key recurring themes that played out during the case’s day before the court:</p>
<h2>1. Is this case premature?</h2>
<p>The opening question <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcript/2022">in oral arguments</a> came from Justice Clarence Thomas, who asked Smith’s lawyer, Kristen Waggoner, to explain whether or not this case is ripe. In the law, a case is “ripe” when it is ready for litigation. </p>
<p>This question is particularly relevant because Smith does not yet offer wedding websites services and no charges have been brought against her under Colorado’s anti-discrimination law. </p>
<p>Rather, Smith is seeking a pre-enforcement judgment from the court declaring that it would be a violation of the First Amendment for Colorado to compel her to provide wedding websites to same-sex couples were she to provide wedding websites to mixed-sex couples. </p>
<p>This feature of the case creates some complications for the justices because courts often rely on the specific factual details in a dispute to reach a decision. But in this case, there are no actual wedding websites designed by Smith for the court to review.</p>
<p>Instead, Smith provided a mock-up of a sample wedding website. At least some of the justices suggested this didn’t provide enough information. </p>
<p>Justice Elana Kagan, for example, asked several hypothetical questions dealing with specific content that might be provided on a wedding website, and she suggested that how she would rule in a case like Smith’s might change depending on the details.</p>
<p>If the justices conclude that they do not yet have enough information about Smith’s web design services, they may not rule in her favor, while leaving open the possibility that they might side with her in a future case.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499079/original/file-20221205-16-a3e1ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two young men run in front of the Supreme Court building, with guards in white shirts looking on." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499079/original/file-20221205-16-a3e1ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499079/original/file-20221205-16-a3e1ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499079/original/file-20221205-16-a3e1ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499079/original/file-20221205-16-a3e1ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499079/original/file-20221205-16-a3e1ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499079/original/file-20221205-16-a3e1ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499079/original/file-20221205-16-a3e1ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Two interns run with a newly released Supreme Court ruling in June 2016 in Washington.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/541738758/photo/supreme-court-prepares-to-hand-down-opinions-on-landmark-cases.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=y7RLNmF201ZkZfZfZuOEMS4Oxp5m7YEzifu6XkVjKdM=">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>2. The status vs. the message</h2>
<p>Many of the justices’ comments suggest that a key question facing the court is whether refusing to make custom wedding websites for same-sex couples is discrimination based on the content of the message or based on someone’s protected status. In this case, that protected status is sexual orientation.</p>
<p>Imagine someone is selling custom-designed welcome mats, for example. If that seller decides that they will only sell welcome mats with messages like “Welcome,” and not others, like “Get off my lawn,” then they are discriminating on the basis of message. This is a constitutionally permissible kind of discrimination.</p>
<p>On the other hand, if that seller decides that they will only sell welcome mats to certain people – for example white people, or heterosexual people – then this is discrimination on the basis of a protected status. Colorado’s discrimination law doesn’t permit this kind of status discrimination. </p>
<p>The question for the justices is, what kind of case is Smith’s?</p>
<p>Justice Neil Gorsuch, one of the conservative majority, suggested that both the defendant and plaintiff agreed that discrimination based on protected status would not be covered by the First Amendment’s free speech provision, but that discrimination based on the content of the message would be constitutional. </p>
<p>Gorsuch’s questions and comments suggest that he views Smith’s refusal to provide wedding websites to same-sex couples as about the message, not the status.</p>
<p>Brian Fletcher, the U.S. deputy solicitor general who argued during the oral arguments in support of Colorado, rejected Gorsuch’s position. Fletcher claimed that discrimination based on sexual orientation is “inextricably intertwined” with a refusal to provide services for same-sex weddings. This would mean refusing to provide a service for same-sex couples is discrimination based primarily on status, not message. </p>
<h2>3. How other groups might be impacted</h2>
<p>Several of the justices raised concerns about how finding for Smith would affect other contexts.</p>
<p>Liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor, for example, asked Waggoner whether ruling for Smith would permit wedding website designers to turn down requests to make wedding websites for interracial couples or for people with disabilities.</p>
<p>Similarly, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson asked whether ruling for Smith would then require the court to permit a photographer to take photos only of white children as part of a 1940s-inspired mall Santa photo exhibit, even if that photographer otherwise was willing to take photos of children of color. </p>
<p>Conversely, some justices raised questions about what bad consequences might follow were the court to deny Smith’s request. For example, Justice Amy Coney Barrett questioned whether a gay magazine would be able to accept only paid wedding announcements for same-sex couples during Pride Month if Smith was not given the discretion to decide who to make wedding websites for.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499088/original/file-20221205-22-itbvcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person is blocked by a large fake holy bible which is black, and holds a sign that says 'use me not for your bigotry' in front of the Supreme Court" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499088/original/file-20221205-22-itbvcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499088/original/file-20221205-22-itbvcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499088/original/file-20221205-22-itbvcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499088/original/file-20221205-22-itbvcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499088/original/file-20221205-22-itbvcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499088/original/file-20221205-22-itbvcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499088/original/file-20221205-22-itbvcc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A protester dressed in a Bible costume stands outside the Supreme Court Building during the 303 Creative v. Elenis hearing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1245382361/photo/suprme-court-303-creative-v-elenis.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=F7IIKhMPlGdWCLigmUqtOS2SzItgrWaFyrAeMRPsi9w=">Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>What comes next?</h2>
<p>The court’s ruling in this case will likely be announced toward the end of the Supreme Court’s current term, which ends in June 2023. Based on comments and questions from the six conservatives on the nine-seat court, it <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/05/colorado-creative-supreme-court-lgbtq/">seems likely</a> that the court will side with Smith. But the Supreme Court does not always behave predictably, and some of the more moderate conservative justices, like Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, didn’t provide any clear signs during oral arguments about who they intend to side with.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194804/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Satta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Supreme Court’s initial questions during the 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis opening arguments focused on whether the case might be premature, and what kind of discrimination is at playMark Satta, Assistant Professor of Philosophy, Wayne State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1950622022-11-21T21:28:17Z2022-11-21T21:28:17ZRed flag laws and the Colorado LGBTQ club shooting – questions over whether state’s protection order could have prevented tragedy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/496558/original/file-20221121-14-tvq6qg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C175%2C7340%2C5165&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flowers at a memorial near Club Q </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-leaves-flowers-and-other-items-at-a-memorial-near-news-photo/1443134730?phrase=colorado%20shooting&adppopup=true">RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The killing of five patrons <a href="https://apnews.com/article/shootings-colorado-springs-e098d88261db6bcfc0774434abbb7a8f">in a Colorado LGBTQ bar on Nov. 19, 2022</a>, is the latest mass shooting to garner headlines in the U.S.</em></p>
<p><em>Police have said they have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/colorado-springs-police-probe-motive-lgbtq-nightclub-shooting-2022-11-21/">yet to determine a motive</a>. But one thing that has emerged is that the suspect had a history of violent plans, having <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/21/1138197437/colorado-springs-shooting-suspect-red-flag-gun-law">allegedly threatened to attack his mother with a homemade bomb</a> more than a year before the attack at Club Q.</em></p>
<p><em>It has led to questions over why that earlier alleged incident did not trigger <a href="https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/hb19-1177">Colorado’s “red flag” law</a> – something that may have prevented him from acquiring the AR-15-style semi-automatic weapon that police say was used in the Club Q attack. The Conversation asked Alex McCourt, an <a href="https://publichealth.jhu.edu/faculty/3794/alexander-mccourt">expert on gun laws at Johns Hopkins University</a>, to explain how red flag laws are supposed to work – and why they weren’t triggered in this case.</em></p>
<h2>What are red flag laws?</h2>
<p>Red flag laws – also know as <a href="https://www.jhsph.edu/research/centers-and-institutes/johns-hopkins-center-for-gun-violence-prevention-and-policy/research/extreme-risk-protection-orders/">extreme risk protection orders</a> – allow for judges to make a ruling that results in firearms being taken away temporarily from a person who is deemed to be at high risk of harming themselves or others. They also prevent that person from purchasing guns for a set period of time.</p>
<p>They are aimed at protecting against the actions of individuals who have made violent threats or may be going through some sort of crisis.</p>
<p>The way they work is that specific people can petition a court to issue an order when someone is deemed to be behaving dangerously or making violent threats.</p>
<p>The categories of individuals who can petition in this way vary from state to state. But all the states that have enacted such laws – <a href="https://theconversation.com/red-flag-laws-saved-7-300-americans-from-gun-deaths-in-2020-alone-and-could-have-saved-11-400-more-185009">19 plus the District of Columbia</a> – include law enforcement officers among those who can petition the court to have a red flag order imposed.</p>
<p>Household and family members are also commonly listed. And in <a href="https://health.maryland.gov/bha/suicideprevention/Documents/ERPO_Brochure%20PRINT%20Version.pdf">Maryland</a>, <a href="https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2022/06/17/hawaiis-red-flag-law-how-file-gun-violence-protective-order/">Hawaii</a> and the <a href="https://oag.dc.gov/public-safety/dcs-red-flag-law-removing-guns-potentially">District of Columbia</a>, health care officials can petition the court should they be concerned over the behavior of a patient. In California, Hawaii and New York, <a href="https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/let-school-officials-seek-gun-limits-for-potentially-violent-students-feds-suggest/2021/06">teachers or school administrators are included</a> in the list of people who can petition the court.</p>
<p>Typically, if the court finds there is sufficient evidence of risk of violence, a judge will issues an ex parte – or temporary – order. These cover a very short period until a hearing can take place. At that subsequent hearing the potential subject of the order can provide an argument that they aren’t dangerous.</p>
<p>If the court decides there is indeed a risk, it will deliver a longer-term order. In most cases it covers a period of up to a year. The subject of the gun ban may be able to petition for the order to be ended early, should they be able to prove, for example, that their moment of mental crisis is over or that they have sought sufficient treatment. The petitioner can also ask for the order to be renewed at the end of the year.</p>
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<h2>Does research show that red flag laws work?</h2>
<p>The first thing to note is that the laws are relatively new – most have come in over the past decade. So researchers are still evaluating the data. But studies have shown that they can be effective in preventing mass shooting events and possibly suicides.</p>
<p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31426088/">Research from 2019</a> found that, among a group of cases in which guns were removed from individuals who made threats of mass shootings in California, none of the individuals went on to carry out mass shootings. A <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36265579/">2022 study</a> evaluated extreme risk protection orders in six states. It found that all the states being observed were issuing orders on the basis of mass shooting threats – 20% of these cases involved threats toward schools and 15% toward intimate partners or family members.</p>
<p>Though these laws are relatively new, <a href="https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=4830&context=lcp">research</a> <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30988021/">analyzing</a> the legislation suggests that they may help prevent suicide.</p>
<p>So there is enough evidence to say they can be used to prevent deaths. But these measures are so new, we need to know more about how well they are being implemented by states. So far, research suggests that public awareness of <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35977171/">extreme risk protection orders is low</a> and that efforts to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36099263/">educate the public and facilitate filing of petitions might</a> help.</p>
<h2>How well are red flag laws implemented across states?</h2>
<p>Connecticut and Indiana both had early versions of red flags laws, in place in 1999 and 2006 respectively, but the policy was really developed after the <a href="https://apnews.com/hub/sandy-hook-elementary-school-shooting">Sandy Hook shooting of 2012</a>. Since that incident – in which 20 children and six adults were killed by a gunman – a further 17 states and Washington, D.C., have added extreme risk protection orders to their statutes. Most have come in since the Parkland school shooting of 2018.</p>
<p>One of the areas in which more research is needed is on implementation of red flag laws. There appears to be wide variation – both state by state, but also within states that have laws in place. </p>
<p>Spotty implementation might be the result of a combination of factors. As they are quite new, there is a knowledge gap – that is, would-be petitioners might not know that a red flag order is an option, or how to go about filing for an order.</p>
<p>But it is also true that there has been a fair amount of <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/red-flag-laws-get-little-use-even-as-mass-shootings-gun-deaths-soar">pushback</a> from certain counties and sheriffs who have said that they won’t enforce these laws out of Second Amendment concerns. This appears to be the case more in rural areas. But that has not been systemically studied to date.</p>
<h2>Any chance of a federal red state law?</h2>
<p>There has been some discussion among advocates about trying to <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/jun/10/ask-politifact-what-are-red-flag-gun-laws-and-do-t/">pass federal legislation</a>. But to date, the main actions taken at the federal level are to make it easier for individual states to adopt red flag laws. The Biden administration has pushed for their adoption, and the Justice Department has issued model legislation that states can use.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Bipartisan-Safer-Communities-Act-SAP-1.pdf">Bipartisan Safer Communities Act</a> passed in June 2022 allows for the distribution of funds to states for crisis intervention programs, including the rollout of extreme risk protection orders.</p>
<h2>What was in place in Colorado?</h2>
<p>Colorado’s <a href="https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/hb19-1177">red flag law</a> was enacted 2019. It allows for law enforcement and family or household members to file a petition to a court. If it is approved, a court can order that an individual’s guns be removed for up to one year.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://injepijournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40621-021-00353-7">2021 study</a> of the first year of implementation of Colorado’s law found that in 85% of cases it was law enforcement that initiated proceedings, and in 15% of cases it was household or family members that petitioned.</p>
<p>There has been slower uptake in Colorado than in some other states. But there have been some questions over whether that is over the timing of the law – it was implemented just before COVID-19 pandemic began, so for a large chunk of the first year it has been in operation, people were under stay-at-home orders.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the study found there were a significant number of sheriffs and counties that said they would not enforce the law. There is no real legal basis for them to do this; it is more of a symbolic or political stance. But it does have implications for red flag laws, as law enforcement officers may not have the training or inclination to pursue red flag orders.</p>
<h2>Why was it not triggered in this case?</h2>
<p>There hasn’t been an awful lot of detail released on why a red flag order was not imposed on the Colorado shooter. Early reporting suggests that this appears to be a classic example of someone who made a threat, in this case threatening his mother with a homemade bomb – and as such would qualify for an order. But there is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/21/1138197437/colorado-springs-shooting-suspect-red-flag-gun-law">reportedly no public record</a> indicating that law enforcement or any family member acted on that threat and petitioned the court.</p>
<p>Experts can only speculate about why this might be the case. But one point of note is that it occurred in a county where the sheriff has <a href="https://www.koaa.com/news/covering-colorado/2019/03/07/sheriff-elder-explains-opposition-to-the-red-flag-bill/">expressed</a> opposition to Colorado’s law and has previously said that his officers <a href="https://www.epcsheriffsoffice.com/red-flag-bill">will not petition</a> for an order except under “exigent circumstances.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195062/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex McCourt receives funding from The Joyce Foundation, The David and Lucille Packard Foundation, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Missouri Foundation for Health, and the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research.</span></em></p>Colorado is one of 19 states that have laws in place to prevent individuals believed to pose a threat from obtaining guns. But a preventive order needs to be petitioned before it can be issued.Alex McCourt, Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1882082022-08-19T12:41:18Z2022-08-19T12:41:18ZSandcastle engineering – a geotechnical engineer explains how water, air and sand create solid structures<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479726/original/file-20220817-11-akqy8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C16%2C2685%2C1923&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There's a lot of science behind the natural forces that let this guy work his magic at the beach.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/vpickering/3780119874/">Victoria Pickering/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you want to understand why some sandcastles are tall and have intricate structures while others are nearly shapeless lumps of sand, it helps to have a background in geotechnical engineering.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=UXVFmqIAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">geotechnical engineering educator</a> myself, I use sandcastles in the classroom to explain how interactions of soil, water and air make it possible to <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.14288/1.0374933">rebuild landscapes after mining</a> metals critical to the energy transition.</p>
<p>Building a sandcastle comes down to the right mix of those three ingredients. Sand provides the structure, but it’s water between the sand grains that provides the force – in this case, suction – that holds the sand together. And without the right amount of air the water would just push the sand grains apart.</p>
<h2>Not just any sand</h2>
<p>Sand grains, according to the standards body ASTM International’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1520/D2487-17">Unified Soil Classification System</a>, are soil particles having a diameter of 0.003 inches (0.075 mm) to 0.187 inches (4.75 mm). Sands, by definition, have at least half their particles in that range. Silt or clay is soil with particles smaller than sand size. And soil with particles larger than sand size is gravel.</p>
<p>The size of particles, or grains, also determines the way sand looks and feels. The smallest sand grains have a texture almost like powdered sugar. The largest grains are more like the size of small dry lentils.</p>
<p>Most sand will work for building a sandcastle, but the best sand has two characteristics: grains of sand in several different sizes and grains with angular or rough edges. Variation in grain size allows smaller sand grains to fill the pockets, or pores, between the larger sand grains. The result is increased sand strength.</p>
<p>Sand grains that are more angular, with sharp corners on them, lock together better, making the sandcastle stronger. It’s the same reason a pile of angular wooden blocks will stay in a pile, but a pile of marbles will go everywhere.</p>
<p>This is also why, surprisingly, the best sand for sandcastles is not typically found on an island or a coastal beach. More angular grains of sand are usually found closer to mountains, their geologic source. These sand grains have not yet had their edges rounded off by wind and water. Professional sandcastle builders will go so far as to <a href="https://physicsworld.com/a/top-tips-for-super-sandcastles-explore-the-weird-world-of-sand/">import river sand for their creations</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, the closer together the sand grains are, the stronger the sand will be. Pressing wet sand together tightly, by compaction or tamping, squeezes sand grains together, decreasing the size of pores and increasing the effect water can have. Compaction also increases grain interlocking and, consequently, sand strength. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477696/original/file-20220804-15-ea3gvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="On a sandy beach, with a plastic green bucket and yellow shovel in the foreground, a blue sky and bluer water in the background, a colorfully swimsuited girl stands with one hand on her hip and the other on a sand castle as tall as she is." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477696/original/file-20220804-15-ea3gvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477696/original/file-20220804-15-ea3gvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477696/original/file-20220804-15-ea3gvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477696/original/file-20220804-15-ea3gvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477696/original/file-20220804-15-ea3gvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477696/original/file-20220804-15-ea3gvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477696/original/file-20220804-15-ea3gvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Building a sandcastle calls for finding the right mix of air, water and sand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/kids-beach-royalty-free-image/91886579">Tony Garcia/Stone via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Water is key</h2>
<p>Without water, sand just forms a pile. Too much water and sand flows like liquid. But between dry sand and saturated sand lies a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nmat2117">wide range of moisture levels</a> that enable sandcastle construction.</p>
<p>Water is cohesive, meaning that water likes to stick to water. But water also sticks to or climbs up certain surfaces. Look at a half-full glass of water and you will see the water going up the insides of the glass a little. Gravity still holds the water in the glass, but the water is trying to climb up and wet the surface. This tiny power struggle is what makes sandcastles possible.</p>
<p>Right where the air and water meet, there’s surface tension. The air-water interface pulls downward, trying to hold the water together against the competing forces of surface wetting, cohesion and gravity. Surface tension pulls the water together like the taut skin of a balloon. And surface tension also pulls sand grains together.</p>
<p>If the glass were much skinnier, like a straw, the water would rise higher and have more surface tension. The narrower the straw, the higher the water would rise. This phenomenon is called <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/capillarity">capillarity</a>.</p>
<p>Water behaves the same way in wet sand. The pores, or spaces, between the sand grains are like a bunch of very tiny straws. Water forms tiny bridges between the grains. The water in these bridges is under tension, pulling the grains together by a force we geotechnical engineers call <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2006)132:2(131)">suction stress</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479731/original/file-20220817-9126-myzq1x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Greco-Roman style sand sculpture of three bearded men wearing robes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479731/original/file-20220817-9126-myzq1x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479731/original/file-20220817-9126-myzq1x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479731/original/file-20220817-9126-myzq1x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479731/original/file-20220817-9126-myzq1x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479731/original/file-20220817-9126-myzq1x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479731/original/file-20220817-9126-myzq1x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479731/original/file-20220817-9126-myzq1x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Did you know that suction is one of the forces holding this sand sculpture together?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/azuaje/13829838454/">El Coleccionista de Instantes Fotografía & Video/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Just enough water</h2>
<p>The quantity of water in the sand controls the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EM.1943-7889.0000054">size and strength of the water bridges</a>. Too little water equals little bridges between the sand grains. More water, and the size and number of bridges grows, increasing the suction holding the sand grains together. The result is perfect sandcastle sand.</p>
<p>Too much water, though, and the suction is too weak to hold the sand together. </p>
<p>A general rule of thumb for building great sandcastles is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nphys106">one part water for every eight parts dry sand</a>. Under ideal conditions in a laboratory, though, with dense sand and zero evaporation, one part water for every <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00549">one hundred parts dry sand</a> can produce wonders. At a beach, sand with the right moisture level is near the high tide line when the tide is low.</p>
<p>Incidentally, salt from seawater can also be a boon for sandcastle stability. Capillary forces hold sand grains together initially, but capillary water will eventually evaporate, particularly on a windy day. When sea water dries up, salt is left behind. Since the seawater was forming bridges between the grains, the salt crystallizes at these points of contact. In this way, salt can keep a sandcastle standing long after the sand has dried. But be careful not to disturb the salt-bonded sand; it’s brittle and collapsible.</p>
<p>To build a strong sandcastle, compact sand and a little water as tightly as you can. I prefer to create a dense mound and then scoop and carve away to reveal the art within. You can also compact the sand into buckets, cups or other molds, and build from the ground up. Just be sure to get the sand dense, and place the mold on a compacted foundation. Hands make for both a great compaction and carving tool, but a shovel or a seashell will allow for more precision. Have fun, and don’t be afraid to get sandy!</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478599/original/file-20220810-667-8spnjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Light brown sand with windblown ripples in a panoramic view of desert landscape in Great Sand Dunes National Park, Colorado, USA" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478599/original/file-20220810-667-8spnjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478599/original/file-20220810-667-8spnjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478599/original/file-20220810-667-8spnjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478599/original/file-20220810-667-8spnjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478599/original/file-20220810-667-8spnjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478599/original/file-20220810-667-8spnjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478599/original/file-20220810-667-8spnjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The best sand for sandcastles is closer to mountain areas like Colorado than the beach. Wind and water haven’t yet rounded the ends and edges of the sand grains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/great-sand-dunes-national-park-colorado-usa-royalty-free-image">Patrick Lienin/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Scalia does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From capillary forces to sand grain shape, the simple mix of sand and water hides the complexity within.Joseph Scalia, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1823952022-05-05T12:43:31Z2022-05-05T12:43:31ZIf Roe v. Wade is overturned, there’s no guarantee that people can get abortions in liberal states, either<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461376/original/file-20220504-21-93m88u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C161%2C5976%2C3802&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Anti-abortion protesters use bullhorns to counter abortion rights advocates outside the Supreme Court on May 3, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/antiabortion-protesters-use-bull-horns-to-counter-a-gathering-of-picture-id1240434492?s=2048x2048">Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Liberal policymakers are quickly positioning their states as abortion havens after <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473">a leaked draft</a> of a U.S. Supreme Court opinion indicating that the court could overturn Roe v. Wade was made public on the evening of May 2, 2022. </p>
<p>Less than an hour after the leak was made public, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a new state amendment that would legally protect the right to abortion.</p>
<p>“We can’t trust SCOTUS,” Newsom <a href="https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1521358301794947072?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521358301794947072%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2F2022%2Fmay%2F03%2Fcalifornia-abortion-rights-roe-v-wade-scotus">wrote on Twitter</a>, using shorthand for the Supreme Court, “to protect the right to abortion, so we’ll do it ourselves. Women will remain protected here.”</p>
<p>New York, Connecticut, Oregon and five other states have also proposed or passed new measures <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/abortion-rights-protections.html">over the last few months</a> that protect the right to an abortion.</p>
<p>If the landmark 1973 court ruling Roe v. Wade is overturned, abortion would no longer be a protected federal right, and states could individually ban or permit abortion. </p>
<p>However, as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YTK30lUAAAAJ&hl=en">social scientists</a> who <a href="https://nursing.cuanschutz.edu/about/faculty-directory/Coleman-Minahan-Kate-UCD5944">study how abortion</a> and <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abf6732">contraception</a> policies affect people’s lives, we think it is important to understand that
people from states that could ban abortion may not be able to easily get an abortion in more liberal places. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461360/original/file-20220504-19-35ois7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A brown haired woman wearing a gray patterned shirt and a mask looks at a whiteboard full of information in an office." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461360/original/file-20220504-19-35ois7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461360/original/file-20220504-19-35ois7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461360/original/file-20220504-19-35ois7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461360/original/file-20220504-19-35ois7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461360/original/file-20220504-19-35ois7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461360/original/file-20220504-19-35ois7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461360/original/file-20220504-19-35ois7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After Texas enacted one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the nation in September 2021, Texas women began seeking abortions at the Hope Medical Group for Women in Shreveport, Louisiana, where a staffer looks at a schedule board on April 19, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kathaleen-pittman-administrator-of-the-hope-medical-group-news-photo/1240239717?adppopup=true">François Picard / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Abortion laws in liberal states</h2>
<p>Thirteen states <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/us/abortion-bans-restrictons-roe-v-wade.html">would quickly ban</a> abortion if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade. </p>
<p>But in some of the 25 states that aren’t expected to ban abortion in this scenario, <a href="https://reproductiverights.org/maps/">there are laws</a> that mandate minors involve their parents before they can get an abortion. </p>
<p>There are also laws that limit <a href="https://reproductiverights.org/maps/">which medical providers may offer abortion</a> and create bans on abortion after a certain point in pregnancy, as well as health <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/u-s-health-insurance-system-excludes-abortion/">insurance policies</a> that won’t pay for one. </p>
<p>Colorado, for example, <a href="https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/hb22-1279">passed a law in March 2022 affirming the right to abortion</a>. But Colorado still has a <a href="https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/next/colorado-abortion-parental-notification/73-21f780be-bb7d-47be-a677-d4441432904a">parental notification law</a>, a ban on <a href="https://coloradosun.com/2021/02/10/colorado-restricts-medicaid-abortions/">Medicaid paying </a>for an abortion, and does not require private insurers to cover abortion. </p>
<p>In March, California <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/03/22/governor-newsom-signs-legislation-to-eliminate-out-of-pocket-costs-for-abortion-services/">also passed legislation</a> that eliminates out-of-pocket abortion costs for anyone with health insurance. But California still <a href="https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/state-indicator/gestational-limit-abortions/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D">does not allow abortions</a> after fetal viability.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24950">Decades of research </a> shows that abortion restrictions like these policies can harm people who need abortions <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-can-already-take-weeks-to-get-an-abortion/">by delaying</a> and sometimes even <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4151926/">preventing</a> them from getting one.</p>
<h2>Parental involvement</h2>
<p>In 11 of the states that are unlikely to ban abortion, teenagers under the age of 18 are <a href="https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/state-indicator/parental-consentnotification/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D">subject to laws</a> that require them to notify or obtain consent from one or both parents before getting an abortion. </p>
<p>Most teenagers talk to their parents about <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24332398/">their pregnancy decisions</a>, but those who don’t often feel they cannot for important reasons. They often <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1363/psrh.12132">correctly predict their parents’ negative reaction </a> to their pregnancy and abortion, and can face physical or emotional abuse. </p>
<p>Some proponents believe parental involvement laws could lead to better care for a pregnant teen. But research shows that forcing young people to involve a parent generally <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29248391/">does not increase parental support</a>, but instead puts teenagers at risk of harm. </p>
<p>States with parental involvement laws, including Colorado, Delaware and Maryland, allow young people who cannot involve a parent to go to court to request a judicial bypass from a judge. </p>
<p>Yet these judicial bypasses <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6485490/">cause delays in getting an abortion</a>. Judges also sometimes <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31944836/">deny these</a> exemptions. In Texas, for example, judges denied <a href="https://www.txcourts.gov/statistics/judicial-bypass-cases/">7% of bypass requests in 2021</a>. </p>
<p>It can also be <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7274206/">burdensome and traumatic</a> for young people who are pregnant to go before a judge to field personal questions about sex, contraception and their family lives.</p>
<h2>Limits on abortion timing</h2>
<p>Eighteen of the 25 states that are not expected to ban abortion now <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/state-policies-later-abortions">prohibit abortion after some point in pregnancy</a>, typically in the second or third trimester. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/overview-abortion-laws">some exceptions</a> to these regulations if the life or health of the pregnant person is endangered. </p>
<p>Bans like these can <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/ajph.2013.301378">force people to remain pregnant</a> even if they do not want to, or if there is a medical concern that arises late in pregnancy, such as diagnosed fetal abnormalities. </p>
<p>Women who are denied abortion <a href="https://www.ansirh.org/research/ongoing/turnaway-study">are more likely</a> than women who received desired abortions to suffer economically, stay with abusive partners and experience health problems during and after their pregnancies. </p>
<p>Some liberal states with policies like these in place, including California, Washington, Illinois and New York, are likely to experience an influx of people seeking an abortion if they no longer can get one in their home state. </p>
<p>These people will have had to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1049386720300669">save money</a>, travel and wait for appointments because of increased demand. These factors can lead to needing an abortion <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306284">later into pregnancy</a>, and ultimately becoming ineligible to get an abortion.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461305/original/file-20220504-15-vcdhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A teenage girl sits in a bedroom with posters on the wall, with her arms crossed. Two young children lie on the bed around her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461305/original/file-20220504-15-vcdhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461305/original/file-20220504-15-vcdhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461305/original/file-20220504-15-vcdhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461305/original/file-20220504-15-vcdhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461305/original/file-20220504-15-vcdhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461305/original/file-20220504-15-vcdhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461305/original/file-20220504-15-vcdhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maranda Corely, 19, sits in her bedroom with her three children in Ellisville, Mississipi, in June 2012. Mississippi has one of the highest rates of teen pregnancy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/maranda-corely-sits-in-her-bedroom-with-her-three-childrenin-their-picture-id672410402?s=2048x2048">Lynsey Addario/Getty Images Reportage</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Insurance limits</h2>
<p>Paying out of pocket for an abortion, without health insurance coverage, can <a href="https://www.plannedparenthood.org/learn/ask-experts/how-much-does-it-cost-to-get-an-abortion">cost up to $750</a> in the first trimester, with costs rising as a pregnancy advances. A 2021 survey found that most people in the U.S. <a href="https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2021/what-a-400-dollar-emergency-expense-tells-us-about-the-economy">cannot afford an unexpected $400 emergency expense</a>. </p>
<p>But 18 of the 25 states that are not expected to ban abortion if Roe v. Wade is overturned require people who need abortions to pay out of pocket for the procedure. </p>
<p>These states either allow private health insurance providers to exclude abortion from their covered services, or the states do not pay for abortion through Medicaid. </p>
<p>Paying out of pocket for an abortion can also lead people <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25418228/">to delay</a> getting one. These costs <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/news-release/2009/restricting-medicaid-funding-abortion-forces-one-four-poor-women-carry-unwanted">can be prohibitive</a> and sometimes <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31215464/">prevent</a> people from getting abortions.</p>
<h2>Workforce limitations</h2>
<p>Abortion providers in states surrounding Texas haven’t been able to keep up with demand as <a href="http://sites.utexas.edu/txpep/files/2022/03/TxPEP-out-of-state-SB8.pdf">thousands of Texans</a> seek abortion services out of state. </p>
<p>This offers a preview of what is likely to occur in states where abortion remains legal once residents of the 25 states expected to ban abortion are forced to travel for care. In short, demand will outstrip supply.</p>
<p>There are eight states that are not expected to ban abortion but only allow physicians to provide all or some types of abortion. They may have difficulty meeting this expected increased demand if they do not allow nurse practitioners or midwives, for example, to also provide care. </p>
<p>Research has shown that these health providers are also trained to provide abortions and <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24950">it is safe for them to do so</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7282803/">Adding these other health practitioners </a> to the pool of providers trained to provide abortions could be key in ensuring that there are enough health providers to meet the potential rising demand for abortions.</p>
<p>States that want to be havens for people who need abortions should critically consider their existing policies in light of their real-life impacts.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Jean Stevenson receives funding from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the National Institutes of Heath, neither of which is responsible for this content.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Coleman-Minahan receives funding from the University of Colorado College of Nursing, National Institutes of Health, and the Society of Family Planning, neither of which is responsible for this content. She has volunteered with the Colorado Organization of Latina Opportunity and Reproductive Rights. The views expressed here are her own and not those of the University of Colorado.</span></em></p>25 states aren’t expected to ban abortion if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade. But limits on abortion in these places, too, make it an uncertain refuge for people seeking abortions elsewhere.Amanda Jean Stevenson, Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of Colorado BoulderKate Coleman-Minahan, Assistant Professor of Nursing, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical CampusLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.