tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/cop22-32323/articlesCOP22 – The Conversation2016-12-15T07:26:00Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/701852016-12-15T07:26:00Z2016-12-15T07:26:00ZPeople power: how communities and cities can help save the environment<p>A year after <a href="http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/">COP21</a> and the adoption of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris__agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a>, international policymakers are still struggling to convert targets into action. This is clearly indicated by the title of the recent followup COP in Marrakech: <a href="http://cop22.ma/en/">Turn the Promise of Paris into Action</a>.</p>
<p>But as the international community putters along, cities and local communities are already staking out the front lines of the fight against climate change.</p>
<h2>Cities take the lead</h2>
<p>Over the years, sub-national actors, such as cities and regions, have acquired increasing weight in international negotiations. Policymakers and scholars alike acknowledge cities’ vulnerability to, and share of responsibility in, environmental degradation. As the recent <a href="https://mayorssummit2016.c40.org/">C40 Mayors Summit</a> in Mexico City demonstrated, mayors of the world’s metropolises are also interested in creating low-carbon and resilient urban futures. </p>
<p>Because local governments control key sectors of environmental policy, and have high concentrations of people, economic activity and political clout, cities are a necessary well positioned to design <a href="https://www.humphreyfellowship.org/system/files/Cities%20and%20the%20Governing%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf">innovative climate change solutions</a>.</p>
<p>In Tokyo, for example, the metropolitan government set up the first city-level cap-and-trade system for <a href="http://www.kankyo.metro.tokyo.jp/en/climate/cap_and_trade.html">buildings’ energy efficiency</a>. If the biggest energy-using facilities fail to meet specified targets, they must buy credits from compliant buildings that can sell their surplus credits. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/149960/original/image-20161213-1610-1m0ajhz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Citizens enjoy Bogotá’s weekly ‘Ciclovia’ – car-free Sunday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/94/Ciclovia_Bogotana_en_Avenida_Chile.JPG/1280px-Ciclovia_Bogotana_en_Avenida_Chile.JPG">Lombana/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In South Korea, Seoul’s <a href="http://english.seoul.go.kr/policy-information/urban-planning/seoul-station-7017-project/1-seoul-station-7017-project/">Station 7017 Project</a> will convert an old elevated road into a pedestrian path that connects the city centre to other districts and to Seoul train station. This will not only help revitalise certain city districts, it will also add green space to this dense metropolitan area.</p>
<p>Then there’s the German city of Hamburg. It is implementing an ambitious plan to make the city car-free within 20 years by developing a major green network of bike and pedestrian paths that link the city to its periphery, as well as to parks, playgrounds, cemeteries and other public spaces. In addition to making cars unnecessary, the greenways will improve resilience to floods and natural disasters, and <a href="http://www.hamburg.de/gruenes-netz/">absorb more carbon dioxide</a>. </p>
<h2>People power</h2>
<p>People have immense power to tackle climate change. And this is true especially in the vital energy sector. As <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421506004824">scholarly literature has demonstrated</a>, “community power” – fostering citizen participation in renewable energy projects – eases their implementation, reduces energy demand, and may ultimately reduce greenhouse gases. </p>
<p>This idea was the inspiration for the recent <a href="http://www.wcpc2016.jp/en/">World Community Power Conference</a>, held in Fukushima, Japan from November 3 to 4, the same time as the Paris Agreement’s ratification. At the event, which was the first of its kind, participants from academia, local government, civil society, business and even schools explored how communities can be agents for increasing sustainability at the local level. </p>
<p>Organised by the <a href="http://communitypower.jp/">Japan Community Power Association</a>, the <a href="http://www.isep.or.jp/en">Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies</a> and the <a href="http://www.wwindea.org">World Wind Energy Association</a>, the attendees addressed topics from energy democracy and regional cooperation to community power’s value for developing countries. Barriers to cooperation between local governments, citizens and business were also tackled.</p>
<p>Fukushima, where a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/mar/11/earthquake-tsunami-death-japan">2011 earthquake and tsunami</a> caused a nuclear plant meltdown, was a highly symbolic host location. In the aftermath of that disaster, local leaders decided to adopt the target of having <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2014/01/31/fukushima-to-use-100-renewable-energy-by-2040/">100% renewable energy by 2040</a>. To do so, residents, businesses and local governments are working together to make solar and wind their primary energy sources. </p>
<p>This collaboration takes the form of several community projects. In the Fukushima Airport Solar Power Project, citizens were <a href="http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20140616/358981/?ST=msbe&P=2">partial financial investors</a>) in the purchase and installation of solar panels to provide about 1.2 megawatts of electricity to the airport. Another initiative within the prefecture, the Fukushima Ryozen Citizens’ Joint Power Plant, also used citizen funds to help local farmers install a solar farm. It provides about <a href="http://www.japanfs.org/en/news/archives/news_id034604.html">50 kilowatts of power</a>.</p>
<p>Community power, then, is one way to enhance renewable energy use and phase out fossil fuels. Because it also entails stronger energy security, it necessarily emphasises democratic engagement and local autonomy. Community power may also carry such significant socioeconomic benefits as job creation, community well-being, new revenue sources, solutions to fuel scarcity or even <a href="http://www.foeeurope.org/community-Power-benefits-briefing-011213">lower energy tariffs</a>. </p>
<h2>Just what is community power?</h2>
<p>There is no common definition of community power but, at a basic level, it implies citizen participation in the production and use of a sustainable energy system, with some degree of control over the activity. </p>
<p>When citizens have ownership – at least partial – of renewable energy plants, by for instance, holding shares in a cooperative, that’s community power. If citizens participate in the planning, installation and operational decisions of an energy company, by exercising strategic voting rights as board members, for example, that, too, constitutes community power. </p>
<p>And communities that receive the socioeconomic benefits of their energy sector when the benefits of the company are reinvested in the activity, also have such power.</p>
<p>In such scenarios, citizens cease to be mere consumers and become producers as well as consumers. This broad definition expands the range of forms community power could include. And that’s important because local particularities as well as <a href="http://www.clientearth.org/reports/community-power-report-250614.pdf">numerous legal and policy obstacles</a> remain powerful barriers to developing community power. </p>
<p>Sharing local experiences also helps other communities forge paths forward. For instance, in Denmark, a law makes it mandatory for consumers or municipal cooperatives to own <a href="http://www.communitypower.eu/en/denmark.html">district heating</a>. The same provision previously applied to electricity production, and when the European energy market liberalised rules so that private competitors began operating in the renewable energy sector, locals protested. The episode highlights how citizen involvement can facilitate the development and embrace of renewable energy projects.</p>
<p>It also shows how strategically structuring the energy market will be important to growing sustainable systems. The recent <a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-4009_en.htm">Clean Energy for all Europeans</a> package, which supports the idea that “consumers are active and central players in the energy markets of the future”, seems well informed by the market side of community power.</p>
<h2>The Fukushima declaration</h2>
<p>The declaration that emerged from Fukushima meeting – <a href="http://www.wcpc2016.jp/en/about/declaration">For the future of the earth</a> – intends to make community power the “prevailing model of the future renewable energy supply all over the world.” </p>
<p>To meet that goal, participants committed to enhancing communication around best practices, working with local governments on renewable energy-focused master plans and engaging in politics nationally and internationally to facilitate the right development conditions. They will also seek to promote community power in developing countries through knowledge transfer.</p>
<p>This declaration is, of course, a soft instrument; it cannot legally compel action. Still, it sheds light on important intersections between people and politics in the fight against climate change. Community power efforts will not only be key to meeting the Paris Agreement objective of <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/">staying below a 2°C temperature rise</a> over pre-industrial levels, it may also make governance structures more democratic.</p>
<p>The trend towards <a href="http://www.localpower.org/documents/report_worldsurvey06.pdf">energy decentralisation</a> in many countries is a good example of where it can have a big impact. As early as 2010, international development agencies were highlighting the contribution that a decentralised energy system could make to meeting the <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/448161468336071420/pdf/774320WP0ESMAP00PUBLIC00PROCEEDINGS.pdf">UN Millennium Development Goals</a>. </p>
<p>By delegating power governance to the sub-national level, decentralisation brings control of important resources much closer to citizens. That change gives cities a chance to innovate at the grassroots level, rather than leaving it to wealthy communities with the resources to undertake ambitious energy programmes.</p>
<p>If the Fukushima meeting was an instance of the early stage of community power getting organised, the coming years will be key to proving its scalability and universality. Planned to be held in Mali, the next conference will take place on a continent where socioeconomic development and energy security are just as important as tackling the global challenge of climate change.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Created in 2007, the <a href="https://www.axa-research.org">Axa Research Fund</a> supports more than 500 projets around the world conducted by researchers from 51 countries.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Magali Dreyfus is currently a visiting fellow at GRIPS (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies), Tokyo, Japan.</span></em></p>From citizens who sit on the boards of energy companies to neighbourhoods that help fund local wind farms, community action is critical to the environmental movement.Magali Dreyfus, Research Fellow, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/689462016-11-23T10:59:31Z2016-11-23T10:59:31ZWith waning US leadership on climate, nonstate actors to play outsize role<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146805/original/image-20161121-4515-wl26ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Civil society and other groups, such as academics and businesses, stand to play a bigger role in how the countries of the world address climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop22/enb/images/17nov/3K1A2178.jpg">Photo by IISD/ENB | Liz Rubin</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Until recently, the international climate negotiation process revolved strictly around high-level conversations between nation states. However, this is changing in a way that may lead us to rethink the structure of global climate talks. </p>
<p>In particular, nonstate actors, such as businesses and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), are becoming increasingly influential players, transforming the overall conversation – something we witnessed firsthand at the <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/meeting/9567.php">COP22</a> summit on climate change in <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/marrakech-conference-33009">Marrakech, Morocco</a> this month. </p>
<p>This shift has the potential to not only bring new voices into discussions over how the world addresses climate change, but also create more effective forums for taking action. </p>
<h2>Disengaged US president-elect</h2>
<p>COP22 wasn’t the first time climate talks have been held in Marrakech. The city hosted the same forum in 2001 at a time when George W. Bush had recently been elected president. He promptly removed the U.S. from the global climate treaty known as the <a href="http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php">Kyoto Protocol</a>. That decision cast a pall over those earlier talks, but that pales in comparison to the effect of Trump winning the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-view-from-marrakech-climate-talks-are-battling-through-a-trump-tsunami-68597">U.S. election</a>.</p>
<p>With his administration preparing to take power, there is every expectation that the United States will <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/paris-2015-climate-summit-14031">disengage</a>. President-elect Trump has explicitly indicated he will <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36401174">end the U.S. involvement in the Paris Agreement</a> <a href="http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2016/11/14/stories/1060045684">and the climate negotiation process more generally</a>, although <a href="http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2016/11/14/stories/1060045685">some expect the disengagement may not be quite as severe</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146811/original/image-20161121-4515-ujwim4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Delegates at COP22 fully expect diminished U.S. leadership on climate change, which could make action by nonstate actors more prominent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by IISD/ENB | Liz Rubin</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How and whether the U.S. officially pulls out of the Paris Agreement or otherwise removes itself from the formal process is still unclear (there are at least <a href="http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/legal-note-could-future-president-reverse-us-approval-paris-agreement.pdf">three possible scenarios</a>). But one thing is certain: The U.S. can no longer be expected to be as active a player as it was under <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/12/12/us-leadership-and-historic-paris-agreement-combat-climate-change">the Obama administration</a>. </p>
<p>This means a different form of engagement is needed for continued progress in addressing climate change. Fortunately, changes in the negotiation environment are taking place.</p>
<h2>Stepped-up role of nonstate actors at Marrakech</h2>
<p>For over two decades, international climate talks held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="http://unfccc.int/2860.php">UNFCCC</a>) were focused on coming to a long-term, comprehensive global agreement on climate change. </p>
<p>This was achieved in 2015 with the Paris Agreement, which puts forth a comprehensive architecture designed for the long term. It requires all parties to submit voluntary <a href="http://unfccc.int/focus/ndc_registry/items/9433.php">“Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs)</a> to reduce their national greenhouse gas emissions. These pledges are designed to assess how far we have to go toward hitting global climate mitigation and adaptation targets, and how far individual states have gone toward doing their part. Over time, countries are supposed to set more ambitious targets. </p>
<p>The key challenge in Marrakech was to take steps to <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55482#.WCwtzdwsW3E">operationalize</a> the Paris Agreement, and here we saw greater involvement of <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/climate-action/global-climate-action-agenda/">nonstate actors</a>. </p>
<p>As Secretary John Kerry pointed out during <a href="http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/11/264366.htm">his address in Marrakech</a>, market pressures and low-carbon initiatives, more than states, will play an increasingly <a href="http://lowcarbonusa.org">central role</a>. Economic agents remain important, not merely for direct financial aid and engagement with the market, but <a href="http://journals.gmu.edu/PPPQ/article/viewFile/563/417">also</a> <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21550085.2016.1226236">for</a> <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/lpaa/resilience/g7-climate-risk-insurance-initiative-stepping-up-protection-for-the-most-vulnerable/">insurance</a> <a href="http://unfccc.int/focus/climate_finance/items/7001.php">and other mechanisms of support</a>. </p>
<p>Substate actors can be cities, states and provinces as well as economic institutions, such as development banks. Other groups include research bodies, such as academic institutions, and NGOs. </p>
<p>This stepped-up role for <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/california-partnerships-climate-and-energy">nonstate actors</a> was particularly notable at <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/climate-action/non-state-actors-partner-with-governments-to-boost-climate-action/">COP22</a> in <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/paris_agreement/application/pdf/marrakech_partnership_for_global_climate_action.pdf">Marrakech</a>. For example, representatives from <a href="http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/stories/1060045918/">California</a> reaffirmed their commitment to reduce the state’s emissions regardless of federal policies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146814/original/image-20161121-4515-za6nu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">California Governor Jerry Brown is seen as a global leader on climate change and an example of the influence entities other than countries can play. At COP22 in Marrakech, he said California ‘will continue to confront’ climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/airresources/14996527068/in/photolist-oRc82w-oRbEmu-p8pWH6-p8Fpwk-r6UhGu-qcp5za-qRLAgi-r97mBU-oBdYb-oBeoa-kNw4ET-e53P8y-e53Ptq-e53NxQ-e53NRG-e4Xa6n-e4X9Cx-rZLizX-eyZRZB-8Q7vZm-kNy5FA-kNM3hc-kNw4Ap-7Xggbk-kNoQTy-kNP3qJ-kNoQKC-kNoR6h-kNw4px-kNmNfx-kNw4Ua-kNwHka-kNy5W5-kNmN1V-kNntiR-kNoQUL-kNwGTt-kNy5MY-kNP3Vm-kNM3ai-kNP3BW-kNP39G-kNM3mv-kNMHLR-chmUgU-chmUxq-kNy5wh-kNy69Q-kNwHSx-kNnt8v">airresources/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The interaction between states, and between <a href="http://www.climategroundswell.org/">states and nonstate actors</a>, has the potential for being increasingly collaborative and decreasingly confrontational. For example, the development of a <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/climate-action/global-climate-action-agenda">program engaging High Level Champions for Climate Action,</a> begun in Paris, came to fruition in Marrakech. This program gathered an unprecedented network of nonstate actors and put them in <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/climate-action/non-state-actors-partner-with-governments-to-boost-climate-action/">dialogue</a>. These dialogues, with the intent of increasing ambition from all parties, demonstrated a remarkable shift toward collaboration. </p>
<p>We saw these dialogues taking place in Marrakech. One example is the <a href="http://climatefinancelab.org">financial sector’s</a> engagement in the discussion of how rich countries provide money to poor countries to adapt to the effects of climate change. In one striking example, the World Bank voiced its <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/indigenouspeoples">engagement</a> with the distinctive perspectives of indigenous peoples for sustainable development. </p>
<p>Moreover, as part of a concerted effort to bring both public and private sectors to bear on climate change, <a href="http://climateaction.unfccc.int">a platform</a> was developed to showcase collaborative efforts, and motivate new partnerships and opportunities. </p>
<p>As Manuel Pulgar-Vidal noted in a <a href="https://seors.unfccc.int/seors/attachments/get_attachment?code=2WPEVEGKQHO5F3G5ZFDLC1B6GNKS5BIC">side event</a> to the talks in Marrakech, there used to be considerable tension and adversity between state and nonstate actors in previous years, most notably at COP19 in Warsaw. The <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/lpaa">Lima-Paris Action Agenda</a> was launched to overcome this tension and catalyze greater collaboration. In Marrakech, we have seen a much less confrontational atmosphere, and a corresponding change in the political environment. </p>
<h2>Three outcomes</h2>
<p>This evolving landscape has implications for how international collaborations to address climate change move forward, even with waning official U.S. engagement. </p>
<p>First, the addition of <a href="http://www.climategroundswell.org">nonstate actors</a> brings interests not typically reflected into the policy arena. For example, subnational bodies such as the state of California can bring in new perspectives on climate action initiatives that might not otherwise be available. Or, in another example, the inclusion of indigenous voices can bring in a set of interests that have not been sufficiently represented. </p>
<p>A broader array of resources, perspectives and expertise provides a more comprehensive approach to policy. Certainly, this diversity of perspectives brings new challenges in coordinating various groups and their interests, but it also opens new opportunities for cooperation.</p>
<p>Second, by including interests that are at least one step removed from formal political agents, the ongoing landscape will be separated from the four- or five-year time span of typical state-level elections. As one of us (<a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11948-016-9779-9">Boran</a>) has argued previously, multilateral engagement that promotes a diversity of perspectives, expertise and know-how can become a strength of long-term climate policy. This, it may be hoped, provides a better chance of developing and implementing approaches to climate mitigation, adaptation, and financial support on longer time scales.</p>
<p>Third, by bringing in nonstate actors there is greater potential for bilateral and multilateral engagement between drivers of climate action with overlapping interests. More agents in conversation open up new channels for collaboration, which is a better approach for the <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13412-016-0400-y">complex challenges</a> presented by climate change. </p>
<h2>Hope beyond the state</h2>
<p>Clearly, the openness we saw in Marrakech to engage an increasingly wide range of actors in the global climate effort cannot be a substitute for the work nations have to do. But it may well prove at least as consequential in the long run as formal U.S. political engagement. And it may provide a new direction for the future of international collaboration and multilateralism. That should give us hope for progress on climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68946/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kenneth Shockley received funding from Colorado State University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Idil Boran received funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) and from York University. </span></em></p>Recent global climate talks at COP22 saw a growing role for businesses, NGOs and the state of California – a promising sign for action on climate change in the face of U.S. inaction.Kenneth Shockley, Associate Professor and Holmes Rolston III Professor of Environmental Ethics and Philosophy, Colorado State UniversityIdil Boran, Associate Professor of Political Philosophy, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/692112016-11-22T05:23:32Z2016-11-22T05:23:32ZWhy China and Europe should form the world’s most powerful ‘climate bloc’<p>It seems almost certain that US President-elect Donald Trump will walk away from the Paris climate agreement next year. In the absence of US leadership, the question is: who will step up?</p>
<p>Sadly this is not a new question, and history offers some important lessons. In 2001 the world faced a similar dilemma. After former vice-president Al Gore lost the 2000 election to George W. Bush, the newly inaugurated president <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=45811">walked away from the Kyoto Protocol</a>, the previous global pact to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>That sent shockwaves around the world, and left nations facing a choice about what to do in the United States’ absence – something they may face again next year. The choice was made more difficult because the US withdrawal made it less likely that the Kyoto Protocol would ever come into force as a legally binding agreement.</p>
<p>However, Europe quickly picked up the baton. Faced with a US president who had abdicated all responsibility to lead or even participate in the global emissions-reduction effort, the European Union led a remarkable diplomatic bid to save Kyoto.</p>
<p>To the surprise of many people, especially in the United States, this diplomatic push brought enough countries on board to save the Kyoto Protocol, which <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050214/full/news050214-7.html">came into force in 2005 following Russia’s ratification</a>.</p>
<h2>What will happen this time?</h2>
<p>While the withdrawal of the United States slowed international efforts back then, as it doubtless will now, this time around the world is in a better position to respond.</p>
<p>First, the Paris agreement has already <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php">come into force</a> and global ambition is arguably stronger today than it was in 2001. Whereas the Kyoto Protocol took almost a decade to come into force, the Paris Agreement has taken <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-agreement-enters-into-force-international-experts-respond-68124">less than a year</a>. And importantly, whereas countries with emerging economies shied away from any commitment to limit their greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, this is not so today. Under the Paris deal, both developed and developing countries have pledged to rein in their emissions.</p>
<p>Second, should Europe decide to take on a leadership role as it did in 2001, the rise of China offers a new and potentially powerful partner. China is now the world’s number-one <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2010/july/2010-07-20-.html">energy consumer</a> and <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/6-graphs-explain-world%E2%80%99s-top-10-emitters">greenhouse emitter</a>. But it has also been one of the most active proponents of climate action.</p>
<p>Under the Paris agreement China has already <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-emerging-renewables-superpower-chinas-climate-pledge-guns-for-green-growth-44142">agreed to cap its emissions</a> and is actively taking steps to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, especially coal. <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ngeo2777.html">Recent data</a> indicate that China’s coal consumption peaked in 2014 and is now set to decline.</p>
<h2>Filling the void</h2>
<p>If Europe and China together decide to fill the vacuum left by the United States, they could form a powerful bloc to lead global efforts against climate change. Leaders in Europe have already hinted at retaliation should the United States withdraw from the Paris Agreement, with former French presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy suggesting a <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/donald-trump-us-carbon-tax-nicolas-sarkozy-global-warming-paris-climate-deal-a7418301.html">carbon tax on US imports</a>. Should China follow the same path, together they would represent the largest import market in the world, giving them a very large stick to wave at America.</p>
<p>An EU-China bloc could also help to ensure that there is less potential for other nations, including Australia, to follow the United States down the do-nothing path. </p>
<p>That said, while the world’s politicians may be in a better position than in 2001 to deal with the fallout from another recalcitrant American administration, the world’s climate is not. The growth in fossil fuel emissions has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuel-emissions-have-stalled-global-carbon-budget-2016-68568">slowed but not yet reversed</a>, and global temperatures <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-set-for-hottest-year-on-record-world-meteorological-organization-68567">continue to climb</a>. The effects are evident around the world, not least in this year’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/coral-bleaching-taskforce-more-than-1-000-km-of-the-great-barrier-reef-has-bleached-57282">devastating bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef</a>.</p>
<p>We should expect that President-elect Trump will withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Even if he changes his mind (which he has done on plenty of other issues), there are many in the Republican Party who will hold him to his word.</p>
<p>The climate isn’t waiting to see what a President Trump does, and neither should the world. Should China and Europe decide to lead, many nations will follow, and one day soon so too will the United States.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69211/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Downie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If Donald Trump turns away from climate action as George W. Bush did, Europe and China can respond by forming an alliance that will turn the United States from a climate leader into a follower.Christian Downie, Vice Chancellor’s Postdoctoral Research Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/662562016-11-15T02:54:41Z2016-11-15T02:54:41ZTrump’s plan to end climate funding thrusts responsibility to other countries<p>Global climate change politics are at a critical juncture.</p>
<p>On the one hand, there is promising momentum around the climate change pact negotiated last December in Paris, which officially <a href="http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2016/10/paris-climate-agreement-to-enter-into-force-on-4-november/">entered into force on Nov. 4</a>. And representatives from countries around the world are meeting in Marrakech, Morocco, to discuss the <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-climate-talks-move-to-marrakesh-heres-what-they-need-to-achieve-67487">next steps to implement the accord</a>.</p>
<p>On the other hand, one of the key questions under discussion at the Marrakech meeting remains unanswered: Who will pay for the agreement? This critical question has threatened to scuttle negotiations altogether. </p>
<p>Wealthy countries last year pledged US$100 billion per year to help poorer ones reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and contend with the myriad effects of a warming planet. </p>
<p>But the pledge won little enthusiasm. Poor countries demanded firmer commitments with much greater specificity in where the money will come from and how it will be used. The Paris Conference in December 2015, while viewed as a success, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2015/12/22/the-unfinished-agenda-of-the-paris-climate-talks-finance-to-the-global-south/">did little to resolve such debates</a>.</p>
<p>Now that President-elect Trump <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/talks-trump-win-sparks-fears-climate-aid-fizzle-43468801">has proposed cutting off all U.S. funding for such aid</a>, the situation is even more dire. </p>
<p>His administration’s plan to abandon aid to poor countries exposes a core problem in climate governance: The tensions over climate aid are deeply entwined in decades of North-South financing disputes. Any successful climate agreement must not only include greater aid from rich countries to assist poor ones cope with climate change, but also address longstanding political conflicts around aid for environmental protection. </p>
<h2>Indira Gandhi’s speech</h2>
<p>The roots of the climate finance debate go back as far as World War II. After the war, countries around the world pursued rapid economic growth, especially the so-called “developing countries” of the Global South. As many threw off the yoke of colonialism, they hoped to overcome widespread poverty.</p>
<p>At the same time, a few environmental activists began to worry over the ecological consequences of how the rich countries had pursued growth. Pollution, landscape despoliation and resource exhaustion all represented warnings of what unheeded development would do. They worried that developing countries would repeat the same mistakes their wealthier counterparts had made.</p>
<p>Environmentalists, however, struggled to persuade developing countries to protect the environment. Environmental protection, after all, challenged the most basic assumptions of development thought and practice. </p>
<p>Development at the time was understood as removing barriers to rapid industrialization. Environmental protection was about placing limits on what humans could and should do. Developing countries viewed environmental protection as imperialism in a new guise: a tool by wealthy countries to undercut their development and invade their sovereignty. They claimed protecting the environment <a href="https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve01/d306">was a rich man’s game</a>, something to do only after their basic needs had been met. </p>
<p>In the 1972 Stockholm conference, the first major U.N. environmental meeting, this North-South conflict dominated proceedings. When the wealthy countries or environmental activists demanded global environmental protection agreements, the countries of the Global South demanded additional aid to pay for environmental protection and compensation for switching to environmentally friendly development. </p>
<p>“The rich countries may look upon development as the cause of environmental destruction,” <a href="http://lasulawsenvironmental.blogspot.com/2012/07/indira-gandhis-speech-at-stockholm.html">Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi proclaimed</a>, “but to us it is one of the primary means of improving the environment for living, or providing food, water, sanitation and shelter.” </p>
<p>The wealthy countries made tepid promises to increase aid and offer some compensation, but, in the ensuing years, the Global South rarely got either. Subsequent meetings over the 1970s and 1980s rehearsed the same script. </p>
<p>The conflicts surfaced again in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit as countries negotiated the original climate change convention. Negotiators did create new mechanisms to facilitate the flow of money from North to South, such as the World Bank’s Global Environmental Facility, and promised to increase their foreign aid, but their pledges were insufficient to meet the scale of the challenges, and few countries followed through in full.</p>
<p>A few years later, the United States rejected the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, in part because the Senate passed a resolution asserting that the U.S. would refuse to sign any agreement that required the poor countries to do less to cut emissions than their rich counterparts. Most recently, at the 2009 Copenhagen Summit, wealthy countries promised a “<a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/home">green climate fund</a>” of US$100 billion in annual public and private investments in poor countries by 2020. Those commitments, though, <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/11/07/cop22-un-reports-increase-in-climate-aid-flows/">have been slow coming</a>.</p>
<p>In other words, the pattern still holds. The rich countries have yet to meet poorer countries’ demands for climate aid, and a climate agreement has stayed out of reach.</p>
<h2>More specifics at Marrakech</h2>
<p>Fortunately, concerned observers are focusing on the nitty-gritty details of climate financing. Climate negotiators have <a href="http://www.cop22.ma/en/unlocking-climate-finance-address-climate-change">made finance a “main priority”</a> in discussions in Marrakesh. A recent report by the Australian and British governments suggested the wealthy countries <a href="http://dfat.gov.au/international-relations/themes/climate-change/Documents/climate-finance-roadmap-to-us100-billion.pdf">could reach their $100 billion pledge by 2020 if they increase their leverage of private investments</a>. And there is increasing evidence that climate change requires immediate action, as every month so far in 2016 has broken previous marks for being the hottest on record.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145898/original/image-20161114-5091-13nmi5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145898/original/image-20161114-5091-13nmi5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145898/original/image-20161114-5091-13nmi5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145898/original/image-20161114-5091-13nmi5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145898/original/image-20161114-5091-13nmi5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145898/original/image-20161114-5091-13nmi5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145898/original/image-20161114-5091-13nmi5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145898/original/image-20161114-5091-13nmi5q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global climate negotiators in Marrakech are tasked with moving forward with the Paris Agreement to reduce global emissions and provide billions in aid to poor countries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop22/enb/12nov.html">IISD/ENB | Liz Rubin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Still, persistent questions remain. Will the most vulnerable populations in the Global South be compensated for the damage caused by carbon emissions largely generated by the wealthy countries over previous decades? Which institutions will ensure that climate finance from North to South is both adequate and reliably delivered? To what extent will climate finance be “new and additional” – a demand of the Global South – instead of repurposed existing development aid? Most importantly, will Trump’s election promises to cut climate aid altogether undo the progress made in Paris?</p>
<p>These questions require specific answers. Two short-term courses of action could greatly help. </p>
<p>First, climate finance still lacks a clear accounting framework, since last December in Paris all negotiators could agree to do was formally punt these issues until 2018 at the earliest. A mutually agreed upon accounting framework is vital to help countries agree whether the $100 billion pledge is, in fact, being met. </p>
<p>Second, given the fact of President-elect Trump in the White House and the likely arrival of climate skeptics to position of power in the United States, meaningful climate finance requires that voters in other wealthy countries must accept this responsibility, even if that meant sacrificing a greater portion of national wealth. </p>
<p>More specifically, the countries of the EU and perhaps even countries such as Brazil and China will have to take the lead on financing in the next few years. <a href="https://www.neweurope.eu/press-release/eu-demonstrates-commitment-to-developing-countries-by-stepping-up-climate-finance-to-e17-6-billion/">Europe has already pledged to increase its climate aid in the last month</a>, and China has in fact shown a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange-idUSKBN1360DK">willingness to take a leading role in climate talks</a>.</p>
<h2>Question of equity</h2>
<p>Trump’s election will certainly curtail U.S. efforts to fight climate change, but <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-could-the-rest-of-the-world-do-if-trump-pulls-the-us-out-of-the-paris-agreement-on-climate-change-68706">it need not undermine other forms of international cooperation</a>. After all, international cooperation has persisted amid past periods of U.S. withdrawal, such as when <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1248757.stm">President George W. Bush left the Kyoto Protocol</a>. And meaningful cooperation over climate financing always lagged, even when the United States actively supported climate protection initiatives.</p>
<p>With or without U.S. leadership, the wealthy countries should still accelerate and meet their official commitment of $100 billion in annual flows with greater specificity of where, when and how this aid will arrive. Such pledges would strengthen North-South relations and begin to strike an equitable balance between the quest for growth and the reality of environmental limits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66256/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Macekura does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Any progress on global climate aid must overcome the long-standing North-South divide on economic development and environmental protection.Stephen Macekura, Assistant Professor of International Studies, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/684552016-11-14T19:09:50Z2016-11-14T19:09:50ZManaging water is key to adapting African agriculture to climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145752/original/image-20161114-5069-14pp2q0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Water and agriculture is high on the agenda at this year's climate talks.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A unanimous decision on how to take action on climate change is incredibly rare. Yet, <a href="https://ccafs.cgiar.org/agricultures-prominence-indcs-data-and-maps#.WCGZPiOLTx5">African nations</a> have overwhelmingly included climate resilient agriculture in their indicative pledges to the United Nations. And agriculture is seen as a major focus through a <a href="http://www.un.org/en/africa/osaa/pdf/au/cap_draft_auclimatestrategy_2015.pdf">common position</a> of the African Union on climate adaptation. </p>
<p>Agriculture employs more than <a href="http://www.unep.org/dewa/agassessment/reports/subglobal/Agriculture_at_a_Crossroads_Volume%20V_Sub-Saharan%20Africa_Subglobal_Report.pdf">60%</a> of Africa’s working population. But low productivity and high levels of food insecurity persist. So the inclusion of agriculture in strategies should come as no surprise. The question is: how are African nations going to move from pledges to progress?</p>
<p>The Moroccan government, host of this year’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa/topics/cop22-32323">COP22</a> climate talks, is seeking the answer with the launch of the ambitious <a href="http://www.aaainitiative.org/">Adaptation of African Agriculture initiative</a>. The initiative is high on the agenda. The aim is to mobilise <a href="http://www.aaainitiative.org/">$30 billion</a> to make agriculture more resilient to the changing climate.</p>
<h2>Improved water management</h2>
<p>This is one of the <a href="http://www.aaainitiative.org/solutions-projects">three key pillars</a> of the initiative – and for good reason. Globally, agriculture uses around <a href="http://www.oecd.org/agriculture/wateruseinagriculture.htm">70%</a> of freshwater supply. But water sources are increasingly under threat. Thanks to climate change, annual rainfall in some regions of Africa – especially southern and northern Africa – is <a href="http://cdkn.org/resource/highlights-africa-ar5/?loclang=en_gb">expected to decrease</a>. Droughts will be more frequent, more intense and will last longer.</p>
<p>Increasing the amount of water for agriculture through water storage at all levels from field to reservoir will be a part of the solution. But existing water sources also can be managed better. In fact, certain regions in Africa have untapped water. Take west Africa, for example, where Ghana withdraws less than 2% of the available <a href="http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/gha/index.stm">surface and groundwater resources</a>. Yet crops are still perishing when drought hits, and people are still going hungry. </p>
<p>The challenge across the region is to provide an environment that enables countries to draw on the water where needed and use it in the most effective and sustainable way possible. Where water supplies are already under pressure, improving the productivity of water use in agriculture would make more water available for other uses. </p>
<p>The urban, energy and industrial sectors can also encourage productivity gains and more sustainable and climate resilient practices through benefit sharing mechanisms like the <a href="https://wle.cgiar.org/thrive/2015/03/20/africa%E2%80%99s-first-water-fund">Tana Water Fund</a>. </p>
<h2>Investment in water storage</h2>
<p>Farmers will increasingly need to rely on water storage as part of the adaptation agenda. It is important to increase investment in a range of water storage techniques. Such techniques include banking groundwater during the wet season, harvesting rainwater and storing water in the ground by conserving soil moisture. In countries like India and Thailand for example, scientists are making progress on <a href="http://utfi.iwmi.org/">capturing floodwater underground</a>, which can then be used for irrigation. Such measures can be considered alongside more conventional surface storage systems for buffering variability, like small farm ponds and large reservoirs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145753/original/image-20161114-5067-4784vl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145753/original/image-20161114-5067-4784vl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145753/original/image-20161114-5067-4784vl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145753/original/image-20161114-5067-4784vl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145753/original/image-20161114-5067-4784vl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145753/original/image-20161114-5067-4784vl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145753/original/image-20161114-5067-4784vl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145753/original/image-20161114-5067-4784vl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Thailand, scientists are making progress on capturing floodwater underground for irrigation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Improved soil management practices have potential to both improve the utilisation of water and increase production. They are increasingly seen as a natural way to store carbon, turning <a href="http://4p1000.org/understand">soils into a carbon sink</a>. This can open up new funding prospects that will have multiple benefits. </p>
<p>Adopting water management practices to a local context is crucial. This will improve resilience by bridging the dry spells that are increasingly occurring during the rainy season and increasing or opening up the opportunity for additional dry-season agricultural production. It’s also necessary to learn lessons from past projects where outcomes have not been effective.</p>
<h2>More efficient use of water</h2>
<p>Increasing yield per unit of water used will be critical for agricultural adaptation. New efficient irrigation technologies, like drip and sprinkler irrigation, are already showing much promise. For example, experience from Asia has shown that – when used in conjunction with high-yielding crop varieties and good soil management practices – yields and water savings have increased by <a href="http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Success_Stories/PDF/2013/Issue_18-Making_a_difference_drop_by_drop.pdf?galog=no">40%</a> in the Coimbatore District of Tamil Nadu, India.</p>
<p>A training programme helped farmers to improve their knowledge of how to use and maintain subsidised drip irrigation systems. It also showed them fertigation techniques, in which fertiliser is applied to crops through the irrigation system. This is a precise and efficient method that saves both time and money.</p>
<p>One banana farmer was able to reduce the daily duration of irrigation from three hours to as little as an hour and 45 minutes. At the same time, his yields nearly doubled. The initiative is now being scaled up across the neighbouring region and has potential in many parts of Africa.</p>
<h2>Getting advice to farmers</h2>
<p>Farmers, as well as decision-makers and insurance firms, need improved information and early warning systems to better respond to climate variability. In Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, <a href="https://wle.cgiar.org/thrive/2014/03/10/new-sms-service-connects-farmers-weather-and-water-information">a new SMS system</a> is being piloted, which is delivering field-specific information and advice in local languages. </p>
<p>Farmers can track crop growth and water efficiency and receive daily irrigation advice. In addition, online data portals enable local advisers to monitor the status of all individual registered fields. Based on observed differences between farms, or even within a single field, advisers can spot problems and help the farmer in need.</p>
<p>To implement these key strategies, significant funding will be required. Currently, Africa attracts only <a href="http://www.aaainitiative.org/sites/aaainitiative.org/files/AAA_livre%20blanc_ENG.pdf">5%</a> of the world’s climate-related funding, even though <a href="http://www.aaainitiative.org/sites/aaainitiative.org/files/AAA_livre%20blanc_ENG.pdf">65%</a> of the African population is directly exposed to the effects of climate change. </p>
<p>By harnessing climate funding for improved agricultural water management, African nations will reap multiple rewards. These rewards will be in the form of improved resilience to extreme weather events, and a food-secure future. Both of these are central to achieving the <a href="http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/">Sustainable Development Goals</a> related to reducing hunger, improving health and livelihoods, as well as combating climate change.</p>
<p>The Morocco climate talks are a golden opportunity for making strides on the adaptation of African agriculture. African countries have made their commitment to this issue clear. They now need to be empowered with the tools and strategies for taking action. </p>
<p>Improved water management approaches may be just one piece of the puzzle, but will provide benefits for generations to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68455/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremy Bird is staff of the International Water Management Institute that receives funding from development organizations for research work on agricultural water management. The outputs are in the public domain and contribute to the body of international public goods. . </span></em></p>The current climate talks in Morocco are a golden opportunity for making strides on the adaptation of African agriculture. African countries need the tools necessary to do so.Jeremy Bird, Director General, International Water Management Institute, International Water Management InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/687062016-11-13T13:27:42Z2016-11-13T13:27:42ZWhat could the rest of the world do if Trump pulls the US out of the Paris Agreement on climate change?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145623/original/image-20161112-9060-1s0gws0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">News of Trump's election has had a deep impact on global climate talks now going on.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop22/enb/images/7nov/3K1A5997.jpg">IISD/ENB | Liz Rubin</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change negotiators from around the world – now meeting at the <a href="http://cop22.ma/en/">COP22</a> conference in <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-climate-talks-move-to-marrakesh-heres-what-they-need-to-achieve-67487">Marrakech, Morocco</a> – continue steadfastly with the task of putting meaning and action into the <a href="http://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/2015/11/29/adil-najam-paris-cop21-pakistan-delegate/">landmark 2015 Paris Agreement</a> to bring down global greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>Yet, the tone in Marrakech has suddenly become <a href="http://m.france24.com/en/20161107-un-climate-conference-opens-morocco-cop22-talks">more subdued</a>. While many conversations remain <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/11/09/live-un-climate-talks-reaction-as-trump-wins-us-presidency/">staunchly defiant</a>, others have assumed a <a href="https://twitter.com/WuMingi/status/796271996896157696">funeral-like quality</a>, as national delegates and civil society representatives try to <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09112016/marrakech-morocco-climate-change-trump-president">assess the ramifications</a> of the U.S. presidential election. </p>
<p>Elections have consequences for <a href="https://theconversation.com/shocking-and-scary-how-trumps-victory-was-received-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-marrakech-68537">global climate change negotiations</a> and the future of the planet. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"265895292191248385"}"></div></p>
<p>President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly stated he does not believe in human-induced climate change. He has argued that climate change is an expensive hoax that was created by the Chinese to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive. He has also declared his intent to <a href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/energy">roll back federal climate change and renewable energy policy</a>. Most poignantly for Marrakech, he has loudly declared an intention to “<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-energy-idUSKCN0YH2D9">cancel the Paris climate agreement.</a>”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"428414113463955457"}"></div></p>
<p>Some cling to the hope that <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/09/26/president-trumps-first-term">President Trump will forget pronouncements made by Candidate Trump</a> just as <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/31/politics/donald-trump-positions-flip-flops/index.html">Candidate Trump had ignored the pontifications of Citizen Trump</a>. An important indicator of why <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-trump-could-kill-the-paris-agreement-but-climate-action-will-survive-68596">this may not be the case</a> is the appointment of <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/who-is-in-president-trump-cabinet-231071">Myron Ebell</a> as head of the transition team for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Ebell, also a front-runner to be appointed as head of the EPA, is an outspoken climate change denier who flat out rejects the Paris Agreement as <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/297755-top-climate-skeptic-to-lead-trumps-epa-transition">unconstitutional</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WoFkzdKaj_M?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) and likely head of the EPA in the Trump administration talks to Climate Home during COP21 in Paris.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Notwithstanding the mechanics of officially <a href="http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/legal-note-could-future-president-reverse-us-approval-paris-agreement.pdf">“leaving” the Paris Agreement</a> – which stipulate a four-year process – how should the rest of the world respond if the Trump administration were to formally or informally <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-trump-presidency-would-spell-disaster-for-the-paris-climate-agreement-59737">disengage from the Paris Agreement</a>? </p>
<p>We think there are at least four ways in which things can unfold. </p>
<h2>Scenario 1: Walk out with the US</h2>
<p>If the Trump administration decides to <a href="http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-trump-global-warming-paris-agreement-20161110-story.html">withdraw from the Paris Agreement</a> then other major economies which are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (<a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int">UNFCCC</a>) will have justification to do the same. This is de facto what happened with the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1469306203000573">1997 Kyoto Protocol</a> once it became clear that the U.S. would not ratify and was not serious about its implementation.</p>
<p>Not least because the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">Paris Agreement</a> came together as a result of much <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/12/12/us-leadership-and-historic-paris-agreement-combat-climate-change">diplomatic leadership by the Obama administration</a>, other countries would feel a legitimate sense of anger and disappointment towards the United States if it were to walk away from the agreement. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"797047079075975168"}"></div></p>
<p>Whether the walkout is a formal withdrawal from the agreement or an informal abdication from its responsibilities, the Paris Agreement would be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/07/paris-climate-change-deal-summit-guide">effectively doomed</a> as signatories fail to meet pledges to reduce country emissions made in Paris. The implication of such a scenario is that the UNFCCC negotiation process could just wither away and critical agreed-upon temperature goals would slip <a href="https://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/2016/05/18/dean-najam-speaks-in-seychelles-on-small-states/">further out of reach</a>.</p>
<h2>Scenario 2: Kick the US out</h2>
<p>As the <a href="http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/index.html">world’s largest economy</a>, although not by the margins it once was, and the <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/each-countrys-share-of-co2.html#.WCaRvneZPUJ">world’s largest emitter of CO2</a>, the U.S. remains central to the enterprise of curtailing global climate change, but arguably is no longer as indispensable as it once was.</p>
<p>Such a rationale and the <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/11/09/live-un-climate-talks-reaction-as-trump-wins-us-presidency/">anger</a> that would be triggered by a U.S. walk-out of the Paris Agreement, particularly amongst the European Union (EU) and China, could induce the parties that remain serious about the agreement to adopt a retaliatory posture. While it would be unprecedented, countries could decide that a U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement should have real consequences for U.S. involvement and participation in the U.N. climate change process.</p>
<p>If they were to do so, they would be taking a cue straight out of Donald Trump’s book <a href="http://www.inc.com/peter-economy/11-winning-negotiation-tactics-from-trump-s-art-of-the-deal.html">“The Art of the Deal”</a> and its key dictums of “fighting back very hard” and “using every leverage.” As Donald Trump puts it in his book: “The worst thing you can possibly do [is to] seem desperate… That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead.”</p>
<p>There has already been <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/donald-trumps-presidency-could-literally-mean-the-end-of-their-world/">at least one suggestion</a> that a U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement should be met with not just forcing the U.S. out of all global climate arrangements but imposing “economic sanctions in the face of this [Trump’s] treaty-shredding lawlessness.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"796492486122360835"}"></div></p>
<h2>Scenario 3: Wait it out</h2>
<p>Even if a Trump administration is compelled to take early and visible action on the Paris Agreement to appease its political base, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sen-sheldon-whitehouse/an-open-letter-to-preside_b_12902500.html">such action could be temporary</a> – either because <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-campaigns-effect-would-be-different-president-n514996">the reality of governance will eventually trump the necessity of politicking</a>, or because the next election in four years could unseat the Trump administration. </p>
<p>Reasoning along such lines could compel the other countries to simply wait out any tantrums of the Trump administration. Essentially, this would mean ignoring U.S. theatrics in the hope that time will bring either sanity or a different president to the White House who would steer the U.S. back into support of the Paris provisions. </p>
<p>Other major powers, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange-idUSKBN1360DK">especially China</a>, may also view this as an opportunity to assume international political and environmental leadership without fully igniting the wrath of a Trump White House by actively pushing the U.S. aside. Then the result could be a de facto <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/us/politics/donald-trump-climate-change.html">sidelining of the United States</a> as an essential player in global climate change politics, at least for a while.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"797429976211529728"}"></div></p>
<h2>Scenario 4: Engage the US</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/12/donald-trump-climate-change-science-sierra-club">Unseemly</a> as Donald Trump may seem to many countries on many levels, it is not easy – maybe not even possible – to ignore or sideline the world’s largest economy and still the only real superpower on the planet. On all sorts of international issues the world will have to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/us/politics/donald-trump-national-security.html">learn to engage President Trump</a>. This could also be the case for climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145626/original/image-20161112-9093-peby6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145626/original/image-20161112-9093-peby6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145626/original/image-20161112-9093-peby6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145626/original/image-20161112-9093-peby6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145626/original/image-20161112-9093-peby6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145626/original/image-20161112-9093-peby6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145626/original/image-20161112-9093-peby6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145626/original/image-20161112-9093-peby6k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Attendees at COP22 lament the victory of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and call on civil society to take greater action on climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop22/enb/images/9nov/3K1A7713.jpg">Photo by IISD/ENB | Liz Rubin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During the George W. Bush administration, other major actors <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/jul/04/usnews.greenpolitics">kept negotiating with the United States</a> even after its unequivocal <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/03/29/schroeder.bush/index.html">rejection of the Kyoto Protocol</a>. Back then other countries believed that the importance of the United States as both a leading political and economic power and greenhouse gas emitter was so great it was better to keep it inside the UNFCCC process.</p>
<p>Such engagement with the Trump administration can take place both through <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-brief-to-the-paris-un-climate-talks-how-we-got-here-and-what-to-watch-for-45919">multilateral channels and in bilateral talks</a>, mainly with China and the European Union. The question would be whether President Trump would be willing to remain engaged, and on what terms.</p>
<h2>What should Marrakech do?</h2>
<p>At one level the delegates at Marrakech can simply ignore the election results for now, especially when current U.S. Secretary of State <a href="https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2016/11/200705/john-kerry-attend-cop22-marrakech-starting-november-15/">John Kerry visits them Wednesday</a>. After all, Barack Obama is still U.S. president. And no one – truly, no one – knows <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/10/politics/trump-past-positions/index.html">what a President Donald Trump might actually do</a>, or not do, come January 20, 2017. </p>
<p>Perhaps it is wise for <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/climate-change-donald-trump">COP22 to remain mum</a> for now. It would <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1005418228960?LI=true">not be wise</a>, however, for the world to not start preparing for different scenarios. The next COP does not meet until <a href="http://sdg.iisd.org/events/unfccc-cop-23/?rdr=climate-l.iisd.org">November 2017, somewhere in Asia</a>. By then it may well be too late to think about options, probably from a <a href="http://isq.sagepub.com/content/31/4/427.extract">negotiation perspective</a> and certainly from the perspective of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/30/25-years-cop-failures-paris-climate-change-pakistan-binding-agreements">planet’s health</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adil Najam has served as a delegate to multiple climate negotiations, including at Kyoto, Copenhagen and Paris. He also serves on the Board of WWF-International and LEAD-Pakistan and is the Chair of the Board of the South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics (SANDEE). He has also served as a Lead and Convening Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its third and fourth assessments. All views expressed here are his own and do not represent any organizational affiliation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henrik Selin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Memo To Marrakech: If the U.S. drops the mantle of global leadership on climate, here are the rest of the world’s options on how to react.Henrik Selin, Associate Professor in the Frederick S Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston UniversityAdil Najam, Dean, Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/680112016-11-11T14:00:47Z2016-11-11T14:00:47ZIndia wants to become a solar superpower – but its plans don’t add up<p>One of the world’s largest solar power projects has just been completed in southern India. At 648 megawatts (MW), the <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Adani-unveils-worlds-largest-solar-power-plant-in-Tamil-Nadu/articleshow/54444571.cms">Kamuthi solar plant</a> can generate as much electricity as most coal or nuclear power stations.</p>
<p>This is great news. But it must be only the start of an unprecedented Indian solar boom. For the country to achieve its Paris climate pledges it will need hundreds more Kamuthis. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144263/original/image-20161102-27212-1iu8rvh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144263/original/image-20161102-27212-1iu8rvh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144263/original/image-20161102-27212-1iu8rvh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=714&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144263/original/image-20161102-27212-1iu8rvh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=714&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144263/original/image-20161102-27212-1iu8rvh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=714&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144263/original/image-20161102-27212-1iu8rvh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=897&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144263/original/image-20161102-27212-1iu8rvh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=897&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144263/original/image-20161102-27212-1iu8rvh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=897&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s easy to see how India could become a solar superpower.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Solar_Resource_Map_of_India.png">SolarGIS</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>India has become one of the big names in renewable energy in recent years. The country championed the International Solar Alliance, an initiative launched a year ago at COP21 in Paris which is <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/international-solar-alliance-to-be-ratified-at-cop22-in-marrakech-in-november/articleshow/54819284.cms">expected</a> to be ratified at the follow-up COP22 in Morocco. It <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=135794">aims</a> to mobilise US$1 trillion (£790 billion) to develop 1 terawatt of global solar power by 2030 – that’s four times more than the <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Statistics_2016.pdf">current worldwide total</a>. </p>
<p>India has made a good start. Among its many ambitious <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=118088">policies</a> include plans for more resilient grids and the deployment of large-scale <a href="http://www.energy-storage.news/guest-blog/a-jumpstart-for-indias-large-scale-energy-storage-market">energy storage</a> to retain intermittent solar and wind power for when it’s needed. The country also aims to become, by 2030, a <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/auto/news/industry/india-aims-to-become-100-e-vehicle-nation-by-2030-piyush-goyal/articleshow/51551706.cms">100% electric vehicle nation</a>.</p>
<p>Impressive renewable energy projects are springing up across India. Kamuthi’s completion means the state of Tamil Nadu now hosts both the world’s second largest solar plant and one of the world’s <a href="http://www.thewindpower.net/windfarm_en_449_muppandal.php">largest onshore windfarms</a>. Even bigger solar plants are <a href="http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/Categorization-of-Solar-Parks-in-terms-of-Performance.pdf">being built</a> further west, in Kanataka state and in Andra Pradesh along the east coast.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144271/original/image-20161102-27234-irrcd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144271/original/image-20161102-27234-irrcd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144271/original/image-20161102-27234-irrcd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144271/original/image-20161102-27234-irrcd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144271/original/image-20161102-27234-irrcd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144271/original/image-20161102-27234-irrcd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144271/original/image-20161102-27234-irrcd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144271/original/image-20161102-27234-irrcd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The world’s fourth largest onshore wind farm is at Jaisalmer, in Rajasthan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">panoglobe / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is all part of an ambitious <a href="http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/OM-year-wise-cumulative-target-for-100000MW-grid-connected-SP-project.pdf">plan</a> to deploy <a href="http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/grid-solar/100000MW-Grid-Connected-Solar-Power-Projects-by-2021-22.pdf">100GW</a> of solar power by 2022 (for reference, the current the global total is <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Statistics_2016.pdf">around 223GW</a>). The government has pledged tens of billions of dollars to these projects, while a very strong private and foundation <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/indias-unprecedented-plan-to-bring-millions-out-of-poverty-and-power-them-with-clean-energy-885350cf8aff#.31jj4d7xe">grant-based</a> movement is encouraging smaller-scale solar, including micro-grids and off-grid systems.</p>
<h2>But India is still powered by coal</h2>
<p>Huge headline-grabbing solar projects don’t tell the whole story, however. India’s energy generation remains among the <a href="https://www.iea.org/Sankey/index.html#?c=India&s=Balance">least sustainable</a> of the world’s large countries.</p>
<p>Fossil fuels, mostly imported, account for 75% of primary energy. More than 80% of its electricity comes from coal. India couldn’t replace that overnight – even if it wanted to, there aren’t enough wind turbines and solar panels in the world. The transition to renewable energy could take <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/IndiaEnergyOutlook_WEO2015.pdf">decades</a>. </p>
<p>Ahead of the Paris conference last year, India <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/Submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/India/1/INDIA%20INDC%20TO%20UNFCCC.pdf">pledged</a> that, by 2030, coal would generate only 60% of its electricity. However this is not because coal plants would be phased out, but because more solar and wind farms will meet growing demand. This won’t reduce the country’s emissions – it’ll simply <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/indias-indc">decrease the rate at which they are growing</a>.</p>
<p>To further back up the idea that Delhi isn’t about to ditch fossil fuels any time soon, just look at the recent <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/16/business/international/india-russia-ties-are-strengthened-by-military-and-energy-deals.html?_r=0">US$13 billion (£10bn) investment by Russia’s state-owned Rosneft</a> in India’s Essar Oil, or early plans to construct a <a href="http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Russia-Discuss-US25-Billion-Gas-Pipeline.html">gas pipeline from Siberia to India</a> worth US$25 billion (£20bn).</p>
<p>Even the electric car strategy isn’t as good as it first sounds. On the surface, the government’s <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/auto/news/industry/india-aims-to-become-100-e-vehicle-nation-by-2030-piyush-goyal/articleshow/51551706.cms">plan</a> to <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=118088">introduce subsidies</a> and ensure all vehicles on the road are electric by 2030 sounds similar to proposals in <a href="http://www.dn.no/nyheter/politikkSamfunn/2016/06/02/2144/Motor/frp-vil-fjerne-bensinbilene?_l">Norway</a> and <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/news/industry-news/all-cars-in-germany-need-to-be-emissions-free-by-2030-official-says/article30446032/">Germany</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145570/original/image-20161111-15693-6mjtyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145570/original/image-20161111-15693-6mjtyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145570/original/image-20161111-15693-6mjtyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145570/original/image-20161111-15693-6mjtyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145570/original/image-20161111-15693-6mjtyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145570/original/image-20161111-15693-6mjtyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145570/original/image-20161111-15693-6mjtyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145570/original/image-20161111-15693-6mjtyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India may simply trade petrol for coal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">monotoomono / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But there is a missing link in policy coordination somewhere: all those newly-commissioned solar farms won’t be able to power the electric cars by themselves – and existing coal power plants will still be needed. Effectively, India will replace petrol with coal and may even need to expand coal power: thus actually <a href="http://www.anl.gov/energy-systems/publication/well-wheels-analysis-energy-use-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions-plug-hybrid">increasing emissions</a>.</p>
<h2>Can India turn things round?</h2>
<p>To appreciate the scale of the challenge, let us compare a few different future scenarios for the country’s energy system. </p>
<p>In the chart below, A and B represent the predictions of the <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/india-energy-outlook-2015.html">International Energy Agency</a> and the <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/ieo_tables.cfm">US government</a> respectively. Scenario C is <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/India/1/INDIA%20INDC%20TO%20UNFCCC.pdf">India’s own pledges under the Paris agreement</a>, including its solar plan – this is what the government is hoping to achieve. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094009/">engineered</a> a best-case scenario, where India generates enough energy to keep its economy running, but still does its fair share of global efforts to keep warming below 2°C. This is scenario D in the chart. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145576/original/image-20161111-9060-1fw31be.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145576/original/image-20161111-9060-1fw31be.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145576/original/image-20161111-9060-1fw31be.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145576/original/image-20161111-9060-1fw31be.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145576/original/image-20161111-9060-1fw31be.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145576/original/image-20161111-9060-1fw31be.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145576/original/image-20161111-9060-1fw31be.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145576/original/image-20161111-9060-1fw31be.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Squint and you might spot solar and wind in the first three scenarios (charts also include hydro, in light green, and nuclear in purple).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Denes Csala (data IEA, EIA, BP, UNSD)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scientists have calculated there is a certain amount of fossil fuel we can safely extract in future while still staying within the 2°C carbon cap. This is the <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v517/n7533/full/nature14016.html">global carbon budget</a>. In all four scenarios, we assumed that India would be <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687.full.pdf">allocated a very generous 50%</a> of the global budget – yes, half of the world’s safely extractable fossil fuels – despite having just 18% of the population.</p>
<p>Yet even if India is “<a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/abs/nclimate2384.html">allowed</a>” these generous emissions, it will still need around ten times more solar and wind power than under the government’s current trajectory. Just look at the enormous difference in the green and yellow sections of the above charts.</p>
<p>Our scenario calls for 1,500GW of Indian photovoltaic generation capacity by 2030. This will be tough but is certainly not impossible. First India must keep on track with its 100GW by 2022 plan and continue to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-18/modi-said-to-plan-3-1-billion-boost-for-india-s-solar-factories">boost its solar panel manufacturing industry</a> to compete with China. Perhaps then, with a little nudge from the private sector and small community cooperatives, we might well witness a true energy revolution.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dénes Csala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government in Delhi must be more ambitious. Current plans for more renewable energy plants are just a tenth of what is needed.Dénes Csala, Lecturer in Energy Storage Systems Dynamics, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/685972016-11-11T12:42:21Z2016-11-11T12:42:21ZThe view from Marrakech: climate talks are battling through a Trump tsunami<p>Stunned. Shocked. Speechless. Devastated. Political tsunami. These were the key words rising to the surface of the babble of conversations that took place in the corridors of the climate negotiations in Marrakech on Wednesday 9 November – the day Donald Trump won the US presidency.</p>
<p>A climate denier, Trump has vowed to tear up the historic <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a> along with the Obama administration’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/president-obama-climate-action-plan#section-clean-power-plan">Clean Power Plan</a>, which seeks to slash greenhouse emissions from power plants. He has also given the green light to renewed fossil fuel exploitation in the United States. </p>
<p>Oil and gas stocks unsurprisingly <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN134024">rose</a>, and coal stocks <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange-idUSKBN1342E0">soared</a>, on his victory day. If implemented, Trump’s promises would make it impossible for the United States to reach its national pledge under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions by 26-28% relative to 2005 by 2025.</p>
<p>At the moment, Trump’s previous declaration of climate change as a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese to undermine US industry looks particularly poignant.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"265895292191248385"}"></div></p>
<p>His election is a dramatic turnaround from the years of constructive bilateral climate diplomacy by the Obama administration with China, which culminated in the joint <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-china-climate-deal-at-last-a-real-game-changer-on-emissions-34148">US-China statement on climate change</a> in November 2014. This joint announcement of the headline national action plans by the world’s two biggest emitters (together covering 40% of global emissions) injected significant momentum into the negotiations leading to the Paris Agreement in 2015.</p>
<p>But now the US elections have delivered not just a presidential victory against action on climate change, but made it much easier for Trump to deliver on his plans than it was for Obama. The Republican Party is now set to control all four branches of government: the House of Representatives, the Senate, the Presidency and soon the Supreme Court (once Trump nominates a new judge following the death of Justice Scalia, bringing the number of judges back to nine, with a conservative majority). This leaves only the media and civil society to speak up for a safe climate in the face of the national government’s agenda.</p>
<h2>Turning back time</h2>
<p>Seasoned negotiators and observers at Marrakech with long memories recalled the moment in 2001 when former president George W. Bush declared that the United States would withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol, the predecessor to the Paris Agreement. This withdrawal cast a long shadow over the negotiations, which was finally lifted with the Obama administration’s re-engagement with climate change that made the Paris breakthrough possible.</p>
<p>Yet the world today is very different to what it was in 2001. The Paris Agreement is <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-agreement-enters-into-force-international-experts-respond-68124">now in force</a> after a speedy ratification, the US share of global emissions has declined, and renewable energy is now much cheaper. Many US states, cities and businesses will continue to work towards reducing emissions, and many Republican politicians have let go of their aversion to renewable energy in response to public and business pressure. </p>
<p>In short, much of America and the rest of the world will continue to build momentum under the Paris Agreement, despite the changing of the guard in Washington DC.</p>
<p>Given Trump’s record of policy flip-flopping, it also remains an open question as to how far he will actually go to undo the diplomatic climate legacy of the Obama administration. Much will depend on who takes over as Secretary of State, and how the State Department assesses the broader diplomatic consequences of withdrawing from the Paris treaty, particularly in terms of transatlantic relationships. European Council president Donald Tusk has already <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-eu-invitation-idUKKBN1341GW">invited Trump to attend a US-EU summit</a>. We might therefore see some easing of Trump’s hard anti-climate talk, much as his social rhetoric <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/us/politics/trump-speech-transcript.html">softened on election night</a>. Trump the President may not be quite the same as Trump the candidate.</p>
<p>Moreover, under Article 28 of the Paris Agreement it will take a total of four years for any formal withdrawal by the United States to take effect. If the US were to turn its back on these legal niceties and abandon its obligations during this period, it would be widely regarded as a climate pariah state. In contrast, China will enjoy its rising status as a climate leader.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, after the initial pause to digest the shock of Trump’s victory, the negotiators at Marrakech have got back down to their business, which is to fill in the implementation details of the Paris Agreement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robyn Eckersley receives funding from the Australian Research Council to research a project called 'What makes a climate leader?'</span></em></p>The halls of the Marrakech climate summit have been filled with fearful talk about Donald Trump’s presidency. But there is hope that the Paris climate treaty can weather the political storm.Robyn Eckersley, Professor of Political Science, School of Social and Political Sciences, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/685372016-11-10T15:23:01Z2016-11-10T15:23:01Z‘Shocking and scary’: how Trump’s victory was received at the UN climate talks in Marrakech<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145278/original/image-20161109-21893-1sbmqhx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/zmescience/30235658854/">ZME Science</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over breakfast at our riad in old town Marrakech, conversation was dominated by Donald Trump’s election victory and what kind of world we had woken up to.</p>
<p>We’re here in Morocco for COP22, the latest round of UN climate change talks. Climate experts from across the world have gathered here to decide on the actual detail of the Paris Agreement which was signed last year at the previous conference, COP21. Our group from the University of Sheffield is very diverse – delegates come from India and Zimbabwe as well as Britain – yet we were all in agreement: Trump’s election is shocking and scary news for the world.</p>
<p>We arrived at the COP22 “blue zone” for delegates and were quickly approached by a French TV crew, wanting to hear our thoughts on Trump. Unsurprisingly, we said this was a disaster for the climate and a disaster for global equality.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145281/original/image-20161109-25147-nbzgha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145281/original/image-20161109-25147-nbzgha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145281/original/image-20161109-25147-nbzgha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145281/original/image-20161109-25147-nbzgha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145281/original/image-20161109-25147-nbzgha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145281/original/image-20161109-25147-nbzgha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145281/original/image-20161109-25147-nbzgha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/145281/original/image-20161109-25147-nbzgha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Delegates at COP22 hope to turn the promises of Paris into concrete action plans.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/takver/30830768666/">Takver</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It then began to dawn on us that there was something very different about the atmosphere at COP22. When we visited Paris last year, the sense of excitement in the air was palpable. But today, things feel altogether more sombre.</p>
<p>Trump’s assertion that climate change was a hoax “created by the Chinese” was never far from any of our minds. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"265895292191248385"}"></div></p>
<p>Swedish and American delegates discussed with us their <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37928593">concerns</a> that Trump would now seek to renege on the US’s ratification of the Paris climate treaty. The Americans hoped “the system” would not let him. </p>
<p>An American artist we spoke to couldn’t even express her shock. She lived in Marrakech, she told us, and her work asked questions about human nature and our existence. Now, she questioned what had happened to her home country. </p>
<p>A Norwegian delegate and negotiator said the world needed to unite to contain right wing populism. And a member of the Libyan negotiation team, who had lived in the UK for five years, said, pessimistically, that this was just a game of democracy. For us, it feels like the endgame of neoliberal democracy.</p>
<p>We’ve seen big anti-establishment movements before – after the 1929 Wall Street crash in the US, for instance, during the rise of fascism in 1930s Germany, or in response to various more recent recessions.</p>
<p>But, as scientists, we feel that the impact of these historic events on the environment was buffered by the planet’s natural resources, which allowed economic growth to continue. In the UK, for example, the economy was rescued by the exploitation of North Sea oil. Those resources – or at least those resources we could use remotely sustainably – are now <a href="https://theconversation.com/humanity-is-in-the-existential-danger-zone-study-confirms-36307">all but exhausted</a>. </p>
<p>Americans have elected an anti-sustainability president, a man unwilling to face up to environmental degradation. The US people have voted for a dream based on a time past – when America was “great”, oil prices were low, and the white working class felt secure. Whether the planet has the capacity to support a new round of unsustainable consumption is highly in doubt.</p>
<p>However, it was brought starkly home to us that the rest of the world feels that Brexit paved the way for Trump’s victory. As a Moroccan scientist candidly said to us: “Well, you started it.”</p>
<p>To get a broader perspective, we moved from the UN delegate area to the “green zone”, where companies showcase their sustainable technologies and civil society organisations explore their role in climate change mitigation. Our conversations here made it apparent that this diverse community has the appetite to effect change, but will need to demand sustainability and reject economic models dependent on growth.</p>
<p>We, as a planet, now have to choose between the path of self-destruction by overconsumption or a more equitable and sustainable future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68537/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Ryan receives funding from the Grantham Foundation</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Ryan receives funding from the Grantham Foundation.</span></em></p>Americans have elected an anti-sustainability President. Here’s how it has gone down at COP22.Anthony J Ryan, Pro-vice Chancellor for Science and Director of the Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures, University of SheffieldDuncan Cameron, Professor of Plant and Soil Biology, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/678722016-11-10T07:50:01Z2016-11-10T07:50:01ZMy experience as a climate negotiator tells me Marrakesh talks will not be easy<p>In a way, adopting the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris climate agreement</a> was the easy part. </p>
<p>The agreement, which came into force mere days before the latest round of climate talks in Marrakesh, Morocco, is just a roadmap. Marrakesh has to turn this roadmap into reality through adoption of rules and procedures, all before 2018. </p>
<p>So the main focus at the summit will be on the adoption of rules for at least ten tracks of negotiations: adaptation to the effects of climate change, mitigation of further global warming, finance, loss and damage, technology, capacity building, transparency, global stocktake, compliance and cooperative approaches. </p>
<p>This vast array of subjects is most important to the world’s least developed countries: the nano-emitters of greenhouse gases that suffer the most from the impacts of climate change. The least developed countries negotiating bloc include nations as diverse as Bangladesh, home to 155 million people, to the tiny Timor Leste, population 1.1 million.</p>
<p>I have participated in climate negotiations for many years, representing Bangladesh. In Paris, we fought for a universal agreement, clear provisions for ambitious mitigation, adaptation action and adequate finance. Now at Marrakesh, we want to see more action on the ground. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144721/original/image-20161106-27914-et005a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Paris Agreement is officially in place: what next?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jacky Naegelen/Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Show us the money</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement establishes a global goal linking the needs to adapt to the effects of climate change to the level of mitigation – that is, how far we go to prevent it. A global assessment of progress every five years is expected to boost action on adaptation.</p>
<p>Climate finance stands at the core of concerns for the least developed countries, but on finance provision, the Paris Agreement is no better than its parent document, the <a href="http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, adopted back in 1992. </p>
<p>The Paris Agreement does not mention the long-agreed principles of climate finance: that it should be new and additional money, as well as being adequate and predictable. There is now more apprehension that there will be more loans than grants for adaptation. </p>
<p>Still, the Paris Agreement is the first climate law where state obligations to finance have been linked to avoidance of 2°C temperature rise. </p>
<p>The least developed countries have also been accorded preferential treatment in adaptation finance, but the record shows only <a href="http://www.eurocapacity.org/downloads/FSFReview.pdf">one-fifth of adaptation finance</a> goes to them. Negotiators obviously want to see clear improvement on this. </p>
<h2>A question of trust</h2>
<p>There is a serious disagreement between the developed and developing countries over the former’s claims on yearly provision of climate finance. The least developed countries are ready to extend total cooperation to the Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice to help work out a clear and common accounting format on climate finance flow, so that it can be tracked. This is extremely important for trust building.</p>
<p>Finance for adaption will need more funding than currently exists in national budgets. There are ways around this. France, for example, leads an initiative to <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/news/france-strengthens-financial-transaction-tax-to-fund-development/">levy a tax on financial transactions</a>, to be distributed as climate finance. Some other industrial countries, such as the UK, already contribute <a href="http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/press/07.htm">0.7% of their national income</a> as overseas aid. </p>
<p>The hope in Marrakesh is that these countries will be willing to realise the long-agreed principles of climate finance – new, additional, adequate and predictable funding. Least developed countries must build stronger alliances with these progressive groups and countries to guarantee future climate finance. </p>
<h2>Canaries in the coal mine</h2>
<p>Achieving a low-carbon, climate-resilient world means providing poor countries with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/stop-sending-climate-consultants-to-poor-countries-invest-in-universities-instead-65135">capacity</a> to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate impacts themselves. </p>
<p>The Paris Agreement’s capacity-building provisions include the decision to establish a committee on capacity building, a transparency initiative, and the promotion of education, training and public awareness about climate change. The least developed countries regard these issues as fundamental for all other institutions, mechanisms and processes. </p>
<p>Basic human rights and the <a href="http://legalresponseinitiative.org/legaladvice/no-harm-rule-and-climate-change/">no-harm rule</a> have long been regarded as sacrosanct, particularly in Western countries. And holding on to a centuries-old view of sovereignty and national interest cannot deal with emerging global public threats like atmospheric pollution. </p>
<p>American scholar Joseph Nye has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/01/29/politicians-say-american-leadership-is-in-decline-theyre-wrong/">cogently argued</a> that while the US has led in production of global public goods since World War II, now cooperation of other powerful states is needed, because power has become a positive-sum game. </p>
<p>As the canaries in the climate coal mine, the least developed countries must sing louder to grab the attention of major emitters, old and new. Joining together to solve the most diabolically complex global problem really is a positive-sum game.</p>
<h2>Hard negotiations</h2>
<p>My long experience as a negotiator is not very pleasant. The decision process at climate talks is consensus-based, and reaching agreement between 195 countries is an uphill battle. </p>
<p>The process is too slow, and a negotiator needs extra patience to endure. There are some parties that play the role of obstructionist in any decision to be adopted. So one has to endure lots of frequent huddling in the corner of meeting rooms to resolve the impasse. </p>
<p>After the adoption of the universal agreement in Paris last year, we in the least developed countries bloc hope that the traditional acrimony among the negotiating parties will gradually dissipate. Unless, of course, the issue of differing <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-eyes-on-marrakesh-climate-talks-as-the-paris-agreement-kicks-in-65778">responsibilities between rich and poor</a> becomes intractable again. </p>
<p>And as always, in disputes between the big emitters of the developed and developing worlds, it is the least developed countries that have the most to lose. In no way do we want this, because we cannot afford any more hurdles on the road to climate justice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mizan R Khan works for North South University. He is a negotiator with the Bangladesh delegation at the COP22 negotiations in Marrakesh. He receives no funding now from any organization.
</span></em></p>The Paris Agreement is in place, but there’s still much to lose for the least developed countries.Mizan R Khan, Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Management, North South UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/685862016-11-10T05:46:27Z2016-11-10T05:46:27ZAustralia to ratify the Paris climate deal, under a large Trump-shaped shadow<p>Australia’s government has announced that it is to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-10/federal-government-to-ratify-paris-climate-change-agreement/8012696">ratify the Paris climate agreement</a>, which was struck 11 months ago and entered into force last Friday.</p>
<p>The move comes despite the election of Donald Trump, who has <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jun/03/hillary-clinton/yes-donald-trump-did-call-climate-change-chinese-h/">called climate change a Chinese-inspired hoax</a>. Trump has pledged to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/us/politics/donald-trump-global-warming-energy-policy.html?_r=0">turn his back on the Paris treaty</a> after he takes office in January, although this would take at least a year and <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-trump-will-change-the-united-states-and-the-world-but-just-how-remains-to-be-seen-68328">technically leave the Agreement still in force, albeit weakened</a>.</p>
<p>The question for Australia is how Canberra will react to such a seismic shift in US climate policy. The last time a US president pulled the plug on international climate negotiations was in March 2001, when George W. Bush <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2001/mar/29/globalwarming.usnews">withdrew from the Kyoto treaty</a>. Australia’s prime minister John Howard <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/australia-rejects-kyoto-protocol/169527.article">followed suit on Earth Day 2002</a>.</p>
<p>The temptation for Australia’s current government would be to follow in Trump’s slipstream in much the same way. Despite its 2030 climate target being <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">widely seen as unambitious</a>, Australia still <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-climate-targets-still-out-of-reach-after-second-emissions-auction-50519">lacks a credible plan to deliver the necessary emissions cuts</a>, and has no renewable energy target beyond 2020.</p>
<p>While Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may be a vocal supporter of climate action, not everyone on on his side of politics is as keen – such as MPs <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/29/climate-sceptic-mp-appointed-chair-of-environment-and-energy-committee">Craig Kelly</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-09/backbencher-likens-climate-change-to-science-fiction-film-plot/5583734">George Christensen</a>. (It was <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-denial-gained-a-foothold-in-the-liberal-party-and-why-it-still-wont-go-away-56013">not always thus under the Liberals</a>.)</p>
<p>The temptation to defect might be strong, but the countervailing pressure will be much stronger that it was in 2002, and the <a href="http://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/attachments/article/leadership_forum_on_energy_transition_-_member_profiles.pdf">clean energy transition</a> is already underway. Just this week, a high-powered group of business leaders, energy providers, academics and financiers <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/07/quentin-bryce-in-high-powered-group-calling-for-coal-power-to-be-phased-out">called on Turnbull</a> to expand the renewable energy target and create a market mechanism to phase out coal.</p>
<p>Yet the US election has also reinvigorated Australian opponents of climate action, such as One Nation senators Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts, who were <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/one-nation-senator-pauline-hanson-makes-toasts-donald-trump-to-victory/news-story/5f21193fe75fcafb3f90e6877a0bae4b">cracking champagne</a> at the prospect of Trump in the White House, and media commentator Andrew Bolt, who <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/andrew-bolt/andrew-bolt-donald-trump-us-election-win-a-revolt-against-lefts-arrogance/news-story/8e658e13e928a1b935587c3634c5a1de">jubilantly described Trump’s victory</a> as a “revolt against the left’s arrogance”.</p>
<h2>Which bit of history will repeat?</h2>
<p>On balance, then, it is still hard to predict Australia’s next move – and past form is little guide for future performance. </p>
<p>Over the past 26 years, Australia has made two largely symbolic commitments to international climate action, and one very concrete refusal. </p>
<p>In 1990, ahead of the 2nd World Climate Conference which fired the starting gun for the United Nations’ climate negotiations, the Hawke government <a href="https://theconversation.com/25-years-ago-the-australian-government-promised-deep-emissions-cuts-and-yet-here-we-still-are-46805">announced a target of a 20% reduction by 2005</a>. </p>
<p>The pledge, however, was laced with crucial caveats, like this one:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…the Government will not proceed with measures which have net adverse economic impacts nationally or on Australia’s trade competitiveness in the absence of similar action by major greenhouse-gas-producing countries.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This target was sidelined in the final <a href="http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, which Australia signed and ratified in 1992.</p>
<p>In 1997, Australia got a very sweet deal at the Kyoto climate talks, successfully negotiating an 8% <em>increase</em> in greenhouse gases as its emissions “reduction” target, as well as a special loophole that allowed it take account of its large reduction in land clearing since 1990. Australia signed the deal in April 1998, but never ratified it.</p>
<p>Kyoto’s rules hid a multitude of sins, anyway, as Oxford University’s Nicholas Howarth and Andrew Foxall have <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629810000648">pointed out</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>…its accounting rules obscure the real level of carbon emissions and structural trends at the nation-state level… it has shifted focus away from Australia as the world’s largest coal exporter towards China, its primary customer.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Although Kevin Rudd famously ratified Kyoto and received a standing ovation at the Bali Climate summit in 2007, a stronger Australian emissions reduction target was not forthcoming. </p>
<p>The next big moment came at the Paris negotiations of 2015. Australia’s official pledge was a 26-28% reduction on 2005 levels by 2030 – a target unveiled by the former prime minister Tony Abbott, and which <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">met with a lukewarm response</a> from analysts. </p>
<p>Since then, pressure has been building for Australia to explain how it can meet even that target, given the hostility to renewable energy among the federal government, the lack of a post-2020 renewables target, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-these-numbers-australias-emissions-auction-wont-get-the-job-done-40761">inadequacy</a> of the current Direct Action policy.</p>
<p>And now we are looking at the prospect of a Trump presidency, already described as “<a href="https://thinkprogress.org/trump-victory-climate-a0c595572299#.83mw6bf2k">a turning point in the history of climate action</a>” and “<a href="http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/11/9/13575684/trump-2-degrees">the end of any serious hope of limiting climate change to 2 degrees</a>”.</p>
<p>In a chaotic world that has confounded pollsters, it seems foolish to bet on anything. But two predictions seem sure: atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide will rise, and the future will be … interesting.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marc Hudson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has announced plans to ratify the Paris climate agreement, a day after US participation in the treaty was thrown into dought by Donald Trump’s election victory.Marc Hudson, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/680122016-11-09T07:47:45Z2016-11-09T07:47:45ZHarnessing the hidden power of mountains to meet our climate and development goals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144617/original/image-20161104-27925-llg2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Remote mountain regions like the Upper Mustang in Nepal are often neglected by the rest of the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy Karpouzoglou</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Upper Mustang, once an isolated and remote kingdom on the edge of Nepal, is where many people believe the Buddhist monk Guru Rinpoche <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/travel/myths-and-mountains-in-nepal.html">chased a demon</a> deep into the flanks of the mountains. </p>
<p>The demon was cut into pieces, defining the landscape and lush surroundings. In locals prayers and myths, demons and deities often incarnate the environment, making the mountains more lively and precious to locals. </p>
<p>But no matter what they mean to their residents, remote mountain regions like the Upper Mustang are often neglected by the rest of the world. This is surprising because mountain regions, especially in the developing world, play a very important role in the provision of <a href="http://www.worldwildlife.org/habitats/mountains">water supply</a> as well as energy (in the form of hydropower) for growing cities and agriculture. </p>
<p>Global policy attention to mountain development has dwindled since the <a href="http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.Print.asp?DocumentID=52&ArticleID=61&l=en">1992 Rio Summit</a>. At the same time, there has been an overbearing emphasis on the melting of mountain glaciers, which often misses the point about how local communities in mountain environments are adapting to climate change. </p>
<p>As world leaders from 195 countries meet at <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/meeting/9567.php">the Marrakesh climate talks</a> to discuss solutions for climate change, mountain development should be part of the conversation. </p>
<p>In mountain regions, crucial climate information is often locked behind institutional and technological barriers. Lack of climate information can hinder preparedness for devastating natural disasters, such as landslides and floods. More lives and property could have been saved in the aftermath of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2015_Nepal_earthquake">April 2015 earthquake in Nepal</a> if better, and locally tailored information systems had existed when disaster struck. </p>
<p>As part of our work on the <a href="http://paramo.cc.ic.ac.uk/espa/">MOUNTAIN EVO</a> project, we are passionate about research in remote mountain regions of the world that can generate locally relevant knowledge about climate change. </p>
<p>Combining citizen science approaches with technological breakthroughs in <a href="http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2014.00026/full">environmental sensing</a> enables <a href="http://www.espa.ac.uk/news-events/espa-blog/world-water-development-report-2016-reflections-espa-researcher">reducing the costs of information collection and dissemination</a> as compared to expensive weather stations. It helps us get valuable knowledge to the people to whom information matters most.</p>
<h2>Citizen science in the Himalayas</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144413/original/image-20161103-25356-1c8ujqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144413/original/image-20161103-25356-1c8ujqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144413/original/image-20161103-25356-1c8ujqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144413/original/image-20161103-25356-1c8ujqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144413/original/image-20161103-25356-1c8ujqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144413/original/image-20161103-25356-1c8ujqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144413/original/image-20161103-25356-1c8ujqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">View of Kagbeni, Uppper Mustang, Nepal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy Karpouzoglou</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One of our study sites is located in a far remote corner of Nepal. Mustang, also known as the “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43302448">Lost Kingdom</a>” of Tibet, predates the formation of the Nepalese state by three millennia. Some of the highest parts of Nepal are located at an elevation of more than 5,000m. </p>
<p>In Mustang, we have been working with agropastoralists practising a combination of livestock farming and small-scale agriculture to understand how we can make climate information relevant to their livelihoods. We have observed changes in the rainfall pattern with possible risks for balancing water supply for irrigation, and that has an impact on how much food they can produce.</p>
<p>Working together with local communities, we have been able to install monitoring sensors that measure how much water is flowing in the stream. We rely on “citizen observers” – people from different village communities in Mustang who participate as they observe – to record and then spread information to various users. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144408/original/image-20161103-25356-4jdiy6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144408/original/image-20161103-25356-4jdiy6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144408/original/image-20161103-25356-4jdiy6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144408/original/image-20161103-25356-4jdiy6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144408/original/image-20161103-25356-4jdiy6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144408/original/image-20161103-25356-4jdiy6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144408/original/image-20161103-25356-4jdiy6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientists working with citizen observers to install a water sensor in a stream close to Phalyak and Dhakarjung, Mustang, Nepal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Feng Mao</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unlike <a href="http://www.citizensciencealliance.org/">citizen science</a> in developed countries, where volunteering is often hobby, in developing countries citizen observers very often derive a small wage for their engagement. At the moment, we are also exploring the use of low-cost technologies for information visualisation (such as setting up small screens in villages) to create alternative ways for local people to observe changes in their local climate in real-time. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144567/original/image-20161104-27943-24bx5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144567/original/image-20161104-27943-24bx5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144567/original/image-20161104-27943-24bx5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144567/original/image-20161104-27943-24bx5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144567/original/image-20161104-27943-24bx5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144567/original/image-20161104-27943-24bx5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144567/original/image-20161104-27943-24bx5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Concept illustration for an on-site monitoring screen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Feng Mao</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Use of pre-Inca technology in Peru</h2>
<p>Another study site is located in Peru, in the mountain district of Huamantanga. Some of the higher parts of Huamantanga are at an elevation of more than 4,500m, yet Huamantanga is only a three-hour drive from the coastal Peruvian capital, Lima.<br>
In Huamantanga, subsistence agriculture combined with raising cattle is central
to poor people’s livelihoods. People rely on livestock to produce meat and dairy products, such as milk and cheese, for their family revenue.</p>
<p>But heavy animal grazing of mountain pastures in the uplands combined with increasing water scarcity and irregular rainfall has created new uncertainties and vulnerabilities for poor people. Younger people see an increasingly difficult future and aspire to migrate to Lima for better opportunities. As one high school student said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Our option is to go to the city to study or to find a job if we don’t want to stay only taking care of the cattle. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This has also created a strong push for water conservation. Water conservation in the uplands can help restore degraded pastures while generating benefits for water users downstream. Under the new leadership of the recently appointed Peruvian president, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/oct/25/water-access-peru-president-kuczynski-ppk">Pedro Pablo Kuczynski</a>, there is much promise of getting the incentives right for linking water and development. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144423/original/image-20161103-25353-1yntrhj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144423/original/image-20161103-25353-1yntrhj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144423/original/image-20161103-25353-1yntrhj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144423/original/image-20161103-25353-1yntrhj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144423/original/image-20161103-25353-1yntrhj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144423/original/image-20161103-25353-1yntrhj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144423/original/image-20161103-25353-1yntrhj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144423/original/image-20161103-25353-1yntrhj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The mountain district of Huamantanga in the Andean mountains, Peru.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy Karpouzoglou</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/jun/22/peru-harnesses-ancient-canal-system-to-tackle-lima-water-shortage"><em>mamanteo</em></a>, a pre-Inca practice of using water, is central for water conservation efforts in Huamantanga. Based on the construction of small channels that divert water from streams, the <em>mamanteos</em> allow water to infiltrate areas with natural underground storage. </p>
<p>In this way, water is retained during the rainy season, and remains available longer into the dry season at the naturals springs near the village, where it can be used for irrigation. We are helping by recording climate data such as temperature, river flow and precipitation as part of trying to understand better use of <em>mamanteos</em>. </p>
<p>Using demonstration plots in the school and having a small laptop computer that displays climate information at the community centre are two of the ways in which we are channelling valuable knowledge back to local users. </p>
<p>People in Huamantanga are particularly concerned about how much water is stored in natural water reservoirs and the extent to which water availability is likely to change in the context of climate change. By designing <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343515000792">environmental virtual observatories</a>, linking local-level knowledge with <a href="http://imhea.condesan.org/">regional data</a>, we can begin to unravel answers that address these concerns. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144443/original/image-20161103-25362-u2o751.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144443/original/image-20161103-25362-u2o751.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144443/original/image-20161103-25362-u2o751.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144443/original/image-20161103-25362-u2o751.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144443/original/image-20161103-25362-u2o751.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144443/original/image-20161103-25362-u2o751.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144443/original/image-20161103-25362-u2o751.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A water spring that’s part of the mamanteo in Huamantanga, Peru.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy Karpouzoglou</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our experiences suggest that remote mountain regions of the world are closer to the climate problem than we think, particularly in the context of safeguarding essential ecosystem services such as safe and adequate water.</p>
<p>As the world turns its attention to the latest round of climate talks in Marrakesh, and the daunting challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we should not lose sight of mountains and how we can <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2016/oct/31/12-ways-environment-development-sectors-work-together-sdgs">work together</a> on climate change action and local development.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Karpouzoglou receives funding from the UK Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Art Dewulf receives funding from the UK Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wouter Buytaert receives funding from the UK Research Councils and the UK Department for International Development.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anneli Sundin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Remote mountain regions are closer to the climate problem than we think, particularly in the context of safeguarding essential ecosystem services such as safe and adequate water.Timothy Karpouzoglou, Postdoctoral fellow, Wageningen UniversityArt Dewulf, Associate Professor Public Administration and Policy, Wageningen UniversityWouter Buytaert, Senior lecturer, Imperial College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/683582016-11-08T19:05:58Z2016-11-08T19:05:58ZCOP22 sets the stage for Africa to mobilise support for adaptation plans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/145017/original/image-20161108-16685-19bq3t3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Olduvai Gorge, in Tanzania, is a cradle of mankind. Climate change will cause frequent and intense weather events in East Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The 22nd Session of the Conference of Parties <a href="http://cop22.ma/en/">COP22</a> will determine what action needs to be taken to combat climate change once the Paris Agreement comes into effect. The conference, which is under way in Morocco, will be crucial in helping African countries manage the effects of climate change. The Conversation Africa’s Samantha Spooner asked Chris Shisanya to provide some context.</em></p>
<p><strong>Why is COP22 important?</strong></p>
<p>It is the third climate change conference held on African soil. COP7 was held in 2001, also in Morocco, and COP17 in South Africa in 2011. COP22 is very important because it lays the foundation for the new era of implementing the Paris Agreement. This agreement and outcomes set out what should be achieved in the short, medium and long term to meet the global goals of mitigation and adaptation. </p>
<p>The following priorities for COP22 have been <a href="https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/application/pdf/opening_remarks_incoming_cop22-cmp12-presidency_20160525.pdf">identified</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>strengthening action on mitigation and adaptation by all parties before 2020;</p></li>
<li><p>supporting domestic action to give effect to nationally determined contributions;</p></li>
<li><p>pursuing collaboration as part of an intensified action agenda; </p></li>
<li><p>mobilising finance, technology and capacity-building support before and after 2020.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Why does COP22 matter for Africa?</strong></p>
<p>Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its high exposure and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter9.pdf">low adaptive capacity</a>. A disproportionate number of droughts and floods have adversely affected agricultural productivity, escalating water and <a href="http://www.unicef.org/socialpolicy/files/The_Impact_of_Droughts_and_Floods_on_Food_Security.pdf">food insecurity</a>. By 2030 water-related conflicts are expected to be a threat <a href="http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Brief_12.pdf">across the continent</a>.</p>
<p>The hope is that COP22 will spark African countries to ignite the political will, creativity and worldwide economic support for adaptation measures. Alongside renewable energy technologies, this can shape a sustainable future. Research shows that a global temperature increase of 2°C by 2050 could <a href="https://www.google.co.za/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiN36Pu5JbQAhWJw1QKHbhGCXoQFggZMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.uneca.org%2Fstories%2Fafrican-ambassadors-meet-preparation-cop22&usg=AFQjCNF0fW-2xHDbLayTWyWtsZ3G5N5dOg">cause Africa’s GDP to decline by 4.7%</a>. </p>
<p><strong>What are some of the East African region’s climate challenges?</strong></p>
<p>To understand this it’s worth revisiting the projected impact on the <a href="http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_climate_change_e.pdf">region</a>.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Temperatures will be higher than the global average, with an annual increase in rainfall.</p></li>
<li><p>The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will increase.</p></li>
<li><p>Widespread water stress will contribute to deforestation and degradation of grasslands.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The vulnerability of the region to climate change is linked to the fact that some economies are dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources such as water and land. COP22 will try and address these climate-related challenges through five priorities. These are: enhancing climate action, an enhanced transparency framework, climate finance, capacity building and technology transfer. </p>
<p>Implementing practical climate action is key to making the Paris Agreement work. Successfully putting the agreement into effect must involve working out ways in which its signatories can realistically expect to meet their own targets. </p>
<p>This is no easy task, particularly for developing countries. </p>
<p>The East Africa Community <a href="http://www.eac.int/%7Eeacint/environment/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=128&Itemid=106">Climate Change Policy</a> resonates very well with the five key issues to be addressed at COP22. Its main objective is to contribute to sustainable development benefits in the region. </p>
<p>The policy will do this through harmonised and co-ordinated strategies, projects and actions. It will prioritise adaptation and mitigation activities. The overall objective is to provide a framework for investment in mitigation (climate-resilient livelihoods and economics) and adaptation (low-carbon development). </p>
<p>Investment in the region should focus on developing national adaptation strategies and nationally appropriate mitigation actions, and on shifting to a green economy. To put the policy into effect the East Africa Community has developed a <a href="http://www.eac.int/environment/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=181&Itemid=106">Climate Change Strategy</a> and <a href="http://www.eac.int/environment/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=180&Itemid=106">Master Plan</a>.</p>
<p><strong>What key decisions or conversations affecting East Africa are expected to take place?</strong></p>
<p>The conversations and decisions likely to take centre stage for the region are captured in <a href="http://www.aaainitiative.org">a statement</a> by African ministers of agriculture. This</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Supports the principle of higher, more efficient and effective public and private funding. And the monitoring of funds disbursed for adaptation and agriculture.</p></li>
<li><p>Contributes to the action and solutions of the <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/climate-action/global-climate-action-agenda/">Global Climate Action Agenda</a> and other relevant organisations. It does this by emphasising projects and good practices. An example is soil management, including carbon sequestration in soils and agroforestry, agricultural water management, management of climate risks and funding of smallholder farmers.</p></li>
<li><p>Puts agriculture at the heart of climate negotiations. It does this by emphasising sustainable increases in productivity and revenues. </p></li>
<li><p>Works to reinforce capacities in terms of policies and programmes, including the setup and management of climate-resilient sustainable agricultural projects.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The most contentious issue for the East African region will be mobilising the US $100bn a year promised by developed countries to developing economies by 2020. Adaptation is another key element for the region. This is set out by the <a href="http://www.wri.org/indc-definition">Nationally Determined Contributions</a>. The hope is that COP22 will address vulnerability, priorities, plans and actions, implementation and support needs. </p>
<p>On mitigation, the region wants to see realistic time frames set that could allow effective country specific stocktaking of commitments in future. This is the only way the target of 2°C can be met.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68358/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris A. Shisanya does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>East Africa is a region that will be hit hard by climate change. COP22 in Morocco presents an opportunity for the region to take steps to mitigate these possible harsh effects.Chris A. Shisanya, Full Professor of Climatology, Kenyatta UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/683782016-11-08T13:30:31Z2016-11-08T13:30:31ZThe sea isn’t actually ‘level’: why rising oceans will hit some cities more than others<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144911/original/image-20161107-4704-hjmiio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In New York the sea will rise by up to two metres.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Donald R. Swartz / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Sea-level rise” is a loaded statement and instils concern, scepticism and <a href="http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/106026-they-keep-saying-that-sea-levels-are-rising-an-all">humour</a>. From a sceptical stand point one could think about your own experience. I have been going to the beach near my parents’ house on the south coast of England for nearly 30 years. In all that time I can’t ever remember paddling in the water and thinking, “gosh, this is higher than it was last year”. Yet, over a similar period of time <a href="http://sealevel.colorado.edu/">satellite observations</a> show a global average sea-level rise of around 8cm. In fact a trend has been shown to go back further, to the <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112002093">late 19th and early 20th century</a>.</p>
<p>The record of observations over the past 100 years or so begs the question, will this rise continue? A <a href="http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1605312113">new study</a> that colleagues and I have published in PNAS looks at what happens to the sea level at 2°C warming and beyond. Our work, led by Svetlana Jevrejeva of the UK’s National Oceanography Centre, shows two key things. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144910/original/image-20161107-4683-dd9m4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144910/original/image-20161107-4683-dd9m4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144910/original/image-20161107-4683-dd9m4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144910/original/image-20161107-4683-dd9m4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144910/original/image-20161107-4683-dd9m4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144910/original/image-20161107-4683-dd9m4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144910/original/image-20161107-4683-dd9m4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144910/original/image-20161107-4683-dd9m4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Selected estimates for sea level rises under 5°C warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1605312113">Jevrejeva et al</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>First, that for an <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7282/abs/nature08823.html">emissions scenario</a> that causes global temperature to rise by 2°C and 5°C relative to the global temperature around 1870, there are a range of sea levels projected from 53cm to 178cm above the level in 2000. Second, that while the global average is projected to increase with rising temperatures, sea levels will not increase by the same amount everywhere.</p>
<h2>The sea isn’t actually ‘level’</h2>
<p>Let’s start with the second point as it will help answer the first. The sea is not level. In fact, it is anything but level. The reason is gravity. The force that keeps your feet firmly on the ground is also acting upon the ocean. The ocean is continually adjusting itself so that its surface – the sea level – feels the same gravitational pull everywhere (called an equipotential surface). </p>
<p>Large things sitting on land, such as ice sheets, are big enough to pull (via their own gravity) the ocean towards them. If bits of an ice sheet or glacier <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC3VTgIPoGU">fall off</a> then their ability to pull the ocean towards them is less, so the ocean adjusts, and you have just added water to the ocean that wasn’t in it before which alters the sea level as well.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144917/original/image-20161107-4711-u5b5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144917/original/image-20161107-4711-u5b5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144917/original/image-20161107-4711-u5b5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144917/original/image-20161107-4711-u5b5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144917/original/image-20161107-4711-u5b5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144917/original/image-20161107-4711-u5b5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144917/original/image-20161107-4711-u5b5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144917/original/image-20161107-4711-u5b5vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Greenland’s ice sheet is so big its gravity attracts the ocean.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Harvepino/NASA/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This adjustment is happening all the time. Around 20,000 years ago there used to be some enormous ice sheets over North America and <a href="http://www.psmsl.org/train_and_info/geo_signals/gia/palaeoshoreline_webpage/HTML/Europe/Europe0.htm">Scandinavia</a>, which pushed down the land surface in those places. As the ice sheets melted the land surface rebounded and is still doing so today. Further from where these ice sheets used to be, the land subsided and its still doing so today. And there was the small matter of all that melted ice raising global sea level by about <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v342/n6250/abs/342637a0.html">120m</a>, which was adjusting itself to keep gravity equal across its surface.</p>
<p>The ocean itself has currents (which govern the large-scale transport of heat, freshwater, and nutrients) whose strength cause <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1939-x">local increases in the height of sea level</a>. The ocean is also warming up. And a <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7198/abs/nature07080.html">warmer ocean causes the sea level to rise</a> since liquids expand as their temperature increases.</p>
<p>Each of the components that contribute to sea level (glaciers, ocean warming, ice sheets and so on) has a <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n7/abs/ngeo544.html">unique pattern</a> for how much it will add to sea level in a particular place. If we add them up we get the total sea level at that point and also how much each component has contributed. </p>
<h2>Some future sea levels are more likely than others</h2>
<p>This leads us back to the first point, where I said that for each temperature rise there are a range of possible projected sea levels. Scientists have run computer simulations of how different levels of greenhouse gases and aerosols could affect the <a href="http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/">climate</a> (atmosphere and ocean), the size and shape of <a href="http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1295/2012/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf">glaciers</a> and <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7596/full/nature17145.html">ice sheets</a>, the amount of <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051230/full">water on land that humans can dam and extract</a>, and the way the land and ocean <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379108001856">respond to adding and removing ice and water</a>. </p>
<p>The (really really) short result of all this research is that each component shows a range of possible responses to each scenario. By running the computer simulations many times, it appears that certain responses are more likely to happen than others. This allows us to say something about how likely a certain sea-level rise could occur in the future.</p>
<p>This is best shown with an example. Let’s take Jakarta. The Indonesian capital is home to <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n9/full/nclimate1979.html">around 12m people</a>, of whom nearly 1.6m live less than 450cm above sea-level. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144914/original/image-20161107-4673-1y4a9xz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144914/original/image-20161107-4673-1y4a9xz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144914/original/image-20161107-4673-1y4a9xz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144914/original/image-20161107-4673-1y4a9xz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144914/original/image-20161107-4673-1y4a9xz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144914/original/image-20161107-4673-1y4a9xz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144914/original/image-20161107-4673-1y4a9xz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144914/original/image-20161107-4673-1y4a9xz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We’re going to need a lot of sandbags.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nadezda Murmakova/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our most likely projection for a temperature rise of 5°C is 85cm, which is pretty much the same as the global average. However, we can also think about what all those possible responses of each component are for a 5°C warming. In these situations there is a less than 5% chance of sea level being less than 49cm and less than 5% chance of sea level being more than 180cm.</p>
<p>In the two cases, different components contribute a different amount (remember they each have a unique pattern). In the “lower” projection (49cm) it is ocean warming that dominates, while in the “higher” projection (180cm) it is the Antarctic ice sheet that dominates, followed by not insignificant contributions from ocean warming, glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet.</p>
<p>Of course there are other things going on locally other than these components. For Jakarta, the gravest concern is subsidence. <a href="https://www.deltares.nl/app/uploads/2015/09/Sinking-cities.pdf">This mega city is sinking</a>, mainly because of groundwater extraction. Projections of subsidence by 2100 for Jakarta are 230-300cm. Put these together with our higher sea level projection and we get 410-480cm of local sea-level rise. Remember the 1.6m people currently who live below 450cm? That number is likely to rise with a growing population.</p>
<p>We started with the phrase “sea-level rise”. It is really important that we unpack this sort of phrase to fully understand what it means. We must recognise the difference between a global number and a local number. For Jakarta, global sea-level is important, but the local sea-level matters too. The sea level is not level – we should accept this fact and embrace the complexity of what makes up rising seas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68378/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Jackson received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under Grant Agreement No: FP7-ENV-2013-Two-Stage-603396-RISES-AM. He is currently working on the Climate Econometrics project, funded by the Robertson Foundation (Grant No: 9907422).</span></em></p>At 2°C of warming and beyond, many megacities will have to cope with increased flood-risk.Luke Jackson, James Martin Fellow, The Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/682122016-11-07T07:41:04Z2016-11-07T07:41:04ZThis Bangladeshi woman can tell you how real climate change is<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144708/original/image-20161106-27939-15ogac1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bhokul has faced the loss of her family's land, and the loss of their income. Now climate change threatens her livelihood even more. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson/UNU-EHS</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>On March 28 2017 United States president Donald Trump signed an executive order <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/climate/trump-executive-order-climate-change.html?_r=0">nullifying many of the country’s commitments to global-warming mitigation</a>. The decision will have far-reaching consequences. As the world’s second-biggest polluter, the US has just made the ambitious goals set by 192 states in the 2015 <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris climate deal</a> all but impossible to reach.</em> </p>
<p><em>This article, originally published as “This Bangladeshi woman can tell you why the latest round of climate talks matter” (November 7 2016), offers a critical view the human reality of climate change as nations around the globe now reconsider their futures in a rapidly warming world.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>A year after the historic <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris climate agreement</a> was reached, country representatives are back at the negotiating table to work out how to implement it. But the <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-climate-talks-move-to-marrakesh-heres-what-they-need-to-achieve-67487">talks in Marrakesh</a> will seem a world away for those who are already seeing the effects of environmental stress and climate change first-hand.</p>
<p>For almost three years now, as part of my research I have listened to the stories of those who know best what it is like to live on the frontlines of climatic stress and disasters in Bangladesh. </p>
<p>Through the <a href="http://ehs.unu.edu/research/gibika.html">Gibika project</a>, my colleagues and I interviewed people in seven study sites across Bangladesh about the impacts on livelihoods due to the environmental stress they are facing. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144709/original/image-20161106-27939-ozf93n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dalbanga South, Bangladesh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson/UNU-EHS</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Listening to those on the frontline</h2>
<p>When we embarked on this project, we asked ourselves: how can we make sure that the histories of these people are listened to? It was clear that the answer was not by having us repeating their stories over and over again in academic journals.</p>
<p>Therefore, instead of just publishing our interviews in project reports or journal articles, we worked with our interviews to produce photo film documentaries.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CruDSB5_6xA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>And rather than write an academic article about why the Marrakesh climate talks are important, I thought I would focus on the experiences of one woman who I interviewed for my research, Bhokul, from Dalbanga South in the southern coastal region of Bangladesh.</p>
<h2>The day my soul ran away</h2>
<p>According the Paris agreement, early warning systems may include areas of facilitation, cooperation and action to minimise losses and damages associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events. </p>
<p>For Bhokul, well-functioning early warning systems are crucial not only for her livelihood, but also for her survival. The Bangladesh <a href="http://www.bdrcs.org/programs-and-projects/cyclone-preparedness-program">Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP)</a> was set up after the devastating 1970 Bhola cyclone through the national government and the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS). </p>
<p>Currently, the cyclone early warning system is a combination of flags, megaphones, sirens and BDRCS volunteers but <a href="https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/no-need-for-luck-to-survive-why-we-should-care-about-disaster-risk-reduction">people sometimes receive the warning too late</a> or not at all. Other times, people get the warning messages but decide not to evacuate to the cyclone shelter for different reasons, such as unwillingness to leave their <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-016-0379-z">livelihood assets behind</a>.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=19p8bF2Jll_MVx91SHEAJ5_oJb5A" width="100%" height="480"></iframe>
<p>Bhokul’s life underwent a major change in the 1960s, when her family lost a large part of the family land to riverbank erosion. She describes how before the riverbank eroded, her family never had to worry about how to put food on the table, but as a result of riverbank erosion, the family became poor. </p>
<p>Their livelihood security depended on what was produced in the fields so with the loss of land this security was lost too. She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Our family’s financial problems came with the riverbank erosion. If the riverbank erosion wouldn’t have taken place, our fathers and grandfathers would have continued living their lives with enough food and everything else needed, instead our family is facing scarcity.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The loss of the riverbank forced the family into debt. Their livelihood became unsustainable, as the family was not making enough money from the rice harvest to pay land taxes. </p>
<p>Debtors later took away the family’s last piece of land: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>My father couldn’t pay the taxes on our land. There was rain and storms. We couldn’t maintain the crops on our land, our cattle died. We couldn’t pay the taxes for eight years. After that they took our land away and sold it at an auction. Other people bought our land and we became poor. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>As riverbank erosion kept eating up the family land and her father could no longer support the family through the yearly rice crop, he had to shift to fishing and Bhokul had to go out and start working.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144710/original/image-20161106-27908-1fa0grl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Riverbank erosion has destroyed the livelihoods of many Bangladeshi people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson/UNU-EHS</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The risk of cyclones</h2>
<p>Dalbanga South, where Bhokul and her family have lived for generations, is located in the southern coastal area of Bangladesh. Here, <a href="http://www.adrc.asia/nationinformation.php?NationCode=50&Lang=en&Mode=country">floods and cyclones are common events</a>. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf">frequency and intensity of extreme weather events</a> such as floods and tropical cyclones are projected to increase as the future climate changes.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=780&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144475/original/image-20161103-25329-hu4yp1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cyclone Sidr was disastrous for Bangladesh’s coastal villages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sidr_14_nov_2007_0445Z.jpg#/media/File:Sidr_14_nov_2007_0445Z.jpg">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/cyclone-sidr-bangladesh-damage-loss-and-needs-assessment-disaster-recovery-and">Cyclone Sidr</a> hit the village hard in 2007 and left a strong scar on Bhokul’s family. Fishing was the family’s main income source at that time, and they owned a fishing boat that they had struggled to pay for after losing their land.</p>
<p>When the cyclone hit, Bhokul’s brother went out and tried to save the boat that was tied up to a tree on the riverbank. His effort was in vain and fatal in the end. The boat was lost, and a couple of days later the brother fell ill and died. </p>
<p>The fact that he was willing to risk his life for the fishing boat shows how important this asset was to Bhokul’s family. It represented their livelihood security and without it, they had nothing. Bhokul describes what happened in the following way: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The wind was incredibly strong. The trees started breaking and falling on top of the houses. The children started to scream. After that, the water came flowing into the house. When the water came in, my soul ran away from me. It doesn’t matter if there is a heavy storm and it breaks my house. We can take shelter under a tree if we need to but the water? What can we do? Where are we supposed to go?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If global temperature rises are not kept in check, people like Bhokul all over the world will suffer even worse effects from environmental shocks and disasters. This includes loss of livelihood, housing and even loss of life.</p>
<p>As negotiators try to get the best deal for their countries in Marrakesh, human stories like these cannot be forgotten.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68212/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson receives funding from Munich Re Foundation through the Gibika project, a research to action collaboration between Munich Re Foundation, United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security and International Centre for Climate Change and Development. </span></em></p>Meet Bhokal, who has already lost so much due to environmental disasters, and who needs the Paris agreement to be a success.Dr Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Gibika Project Manager, researches livelihood resilience and environmental stress in Bangladesh, United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/657782016-11-04T15:25:27Z2016-11-04T15:25:27ZAll eyes on Marrakesh climate talks as the Paris Agreement kicks in<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144465/original/image-20161103-25353-18fxdau.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Marrakesh awaits an influx of climate negotiators.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Marrakech_2009_Bab_Agnaou_Gate_LL.JPG">Lionel Leo </a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris Agreement</a> has <a href="http://theconversation.com/paris-climate-agreement-enters-into-force-international-experts-respond-68124">taken effect</a> just eleven months after it was adopted. This is almost unprecedented in global diplomatic history, particularly for an agreement involving the most intractable global agenda of modern times – addressing human-induced climate change. </p>
<p>After the frustrating experience with the <a href="http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php">Kyoto Protocol</a> over a period of almost 20 years, this is a refreshing and welcome change for climate diplomacy. </p>
<p>The Paris outcome was crafted in such a way as to allow US President Barack Obama to use his executive power to ratify it, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/13/climate-change-paris-deal-cop21-obama-administration-congress-republicans-environment">bypassing congressional approval</a>. </p>
<p>The big push to bring it into effect came with the US-China initiative to accede to the agreement in <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-climatechange-idUSKCN11901W">early September 2016</a>. The two countries are <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/6-graphs-explain-world%E2%80%99s-top-10-emitters">largest emitters of greenhouse gases</a>, the US historically the largest and China the current number one emitter.</p>
<p>Others followed suit to pass the necessary threshold to bring the agreement into force: ratification by at least <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/hot-topics/ratification-tracker.html">55 parties covering at least 55% of global emissions</a>. </p>
<h2>The next round of talks</h2>
<p>Now a long <a href="http://www.cop22-morocco.com/agenda/">agenda</a> awaits the next round of climate talks in Marrakesh, Morocco, known as COP22. This will also be the first meeting the parties to the Paris Agreement, so the plate is full for the two week-long event beginning on November 7. Marrakesh is hosting the talks for the second time, after <a href="http://unfccc.int/cop7/">COP7 back in 2001</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"791286013368950787"}"></div></p>
<p>The primary goal will be to develop what are known as “<a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/apa/eng/inf03.pdf">modalities, procedures and guidelines</a>” for bringing all the negotiating tracks set in Paris into operation. </p>
<p>There is also a long list of agreed processes and structures to bring into effect. These are: </p>
<ul>
<li>an enhanced transparency framework for climate action and support,<br></li>
<li>global stocktake every five years,<br></li>
<li>a 12-member compliance mechanism,<br></li>
<li>a clearing house for risk transfer and insurance,<br></li>
<li>a taskforce to devise approaches to deal with climate-induced migration,<br></li>
<li>the 12-member Paris committee on capacity building,<br></li>
<li>the capacity building initiative for transparency,<br></li>
<li>accounting of public climate finance,</li>
<li>a new market mechanism, and</li>
<li>a global sustainable development mechanism.<br></li>
</ul>
<p>All this must be completed by 2018. </p>
<p>So, if Paris created the ambition, Marrakesh is charged broadly with developing the rulebook for implementation of the Agreement in the years to come. </p>
<h2>Sticking points</h2>
<p>This will not be all smooth sailing. In Marrakesh, the usual political acrimony that I have seen in my time as a negotiator at many climate negotiations may raise its head again. </p>
<p>This is because Paris Agreement is a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/13/paris-climate-deal-cop-diplomacy-developing-united-nations">mix of both binding and non-binding elements</a>. The procedural issues, such as regular communication of how countries are proceeding towards their climate goals, and the global stocktake every five years, are binding. But the substantive elements, such as the nationally determined contributions to reduce emissions and compliance mechanism, are non-binding. </p>
<p>National mitigation targets will be peer-reviewed, without any top-down punitive compliance mechanism. Already, estimates show that even with full implementation of all the pledged national contributions, the world will witness a <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates">3°C temperature rise</a>. Yet, the Paris Agreement commits the world to a maximum of 2°C, with an aspirational goal of 1.5°C.</p>
<p>Though the submitted goals are viewed as minimum standards, which will be ratcheted up progressively over time, will the goal be achieved just with peer-review, without any naming and shaming? I doubt it. </p>
<h2>Butting heads</h2>
<p>The crux of the problem is the mitigation track – that is, preventing further climate change rather than adapting to its effects. </p>
<p>Under the present dispensation, each and every party will claim its actions are fair compared to others. The developed world, though stipulated to lead in mitigation, will focus more on the top-down review to ensure compliance to submitted goals from countries like China and India. </p>
<p>This self-righteous behaviour may not succeed. For the sake of the adoption of a universal agreement, major emitters from the developing world agreed to a truce that saw differentiation in responsibilities between developed and developing countries somewhat reduced, taking some of the burden off the countries who have historically contributed the most to climate change.</p>
<p>But it is likely that the rancour will return in Marrakesh, once the honeymoon is over. There is no reason to believe we are already in a post-equity world in climate diplomacy. A group of 12 countries, <a href="http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-ratifies-paris-agreement-but-with-caveats-116092801062_1.html">including India</a>, has submitted their ratification instruments with “reservations”, keeping the option to leave the agreement if other countries (that is, big emitters) don’t play fair. </p>
<h2>Standing up for small states</h2>
<p>Sandwiched in the middle of disputes between major emitters from both sides are more vulnerable states. </p>
<p>Both the Least Developed Countries group – a negotiating bloc of the world’s poorest countries – and the Small Island Developing States – a group that includes tiny island countries such as Kiribati, Mauritius and Barbados – have very modest expectations. </p>
<p>These states need enhanced support mainly for adapting to the effects of climate change in the form of pledged <a href="http://unfccc.int/focus/climate_finance/items/7001.php">climate finance</a>, technology assistance and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-should-we-compensate-poor-countries-for-loss-and-damage-from-climate-change-55612">loss and damage mechanisms</a>. They will also benefit from the newly agreed capacity building committee. </p>
<p>In between the big and small emitters, there are goodwill alliances, the <a href="http://www.thecvf.org/">Climate Vulnerable Forum</a>, which try to mediate, bridge and reach consensus. </p>
<p>With all these potential pitfalls, let us hope that climate negotiations under the universally accepted Paris Agreement remain on solid ground. Only good faith negotiations can salvage humans and ecosystems alike from impending and irreversible disaster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mizan R Khan works for North South University. He is a negotiator with the Bangladesh delegation at the COP22 negotiations in Marrakesh. He receives no funding now from any organization.</span></em></p>The Paris agreement may be in force, but that doesn’t mean the world agrees on climate change.Mizan R Khan, Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Management, North South UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/682022016-11-04T11:44:37Z2016-11-04T11:44:37ZWe can’t simply bet on renewable energy to stop global warming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144458/original/image-20161103-25343-cpg2o9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stockr / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris climate agreement</a> has now officially come into force. Although Donald Trump and other climate change deniers have vowed to abandon it, most have hailed the agreement as a huge success and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-paris-climate-deal-52256">significant milestone</a> in our quest to limit the effects of global climate change.</p>
<p>But here’s the problem: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/aug/06/global-warming-target-miss-scientists-warn">many climate experts</a> warn that the commitments made at Paris still fall far short of what is required to halt global warming at the 2°C mark, never mind reversing the growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The simple truth is that the Paris agreement is blind to the fundamental, structural problems that prevent us from decarbonising our economies to the radical extent needed.</p>
<p>Take renewable energy. Among the most progressive leaders in <a href="http://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/blog/enel-group-powering-renewable-energy-transition-because-it-%E2%80%9Ccommon-sense%E2%80%9D">business</a>, <a href="http://sedsh.gov.uk/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/Energy-sources/19185">government</a> and <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/climate/clean-energy">NGOs</a> there is a shared belief that, if only we could switch off the fossil fuel tap and quickly transition towards renewable energy sources, we still have a chance to save the world from runaway climate change. All that’s needed is massive investment in wind, solar, geothermal and other renewables. International agreements such as those reached in Paris are what makes <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/03/paris-climate-deal-where-us-and-china-have-led-others-must-quickly-follow">those investments possible</a>, providing business confidence and policy commitment.</p>
<p>While I feel part of this group of progressives, there are some hard facts that cannot be ignored.</p>
<h2>Fossil fuel still dominates</h2>
<p>First, the renewable schemes to date have largely been at the expense of unpopular nuclear installations, while the global share of <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.COMM.FO.ZS">fossil fuel-generated energy consumption remains at about 80-85%</a>: just where it’s been since the early 1970s. Yes, <a href="http://www.masdar.ae/en/energy/detail/masdar-city-solar-pv-plant">massive solar</a> and wind parks are being built around the world, but they haven’t yet changed the business models of Shell, BP and other fossil fuel giants. On the contrary, they feel more secure than ever to invest in fossil fuel sources, <a href="http://www.shell.com/sustainability/environment/climate-change.html">particularly gas</a>, which they see as a “transition fuel” – here to stay <a href="https://theconversation.com/shell-cant-afford-to-wait-until-2050-to-adapt-its-business-to-climate-change-42001">until at least 2050</a> they say.</p>
<h2>Land shortage</h2>
<p>Second, the massive amounts of land required for installing gigawatts of solar and wind power will destroy natural habitats and take away valuable farmland. This is already evident in the way existing biomass production schemes – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/oct/21/us-forests-under-threat-as-demand-for-wood-based-biofuels-grows-report">forests in the US</a> for instance, <a href="http://archive.corporateeurope.org/ethanolfueladdiction.html">sugar cane in Brazil</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/apr/04/energy.indonesia">palm oil in Malaysia</a> – have had serious environmental and social side-effects to the extent that they have been labelled as “<a href="http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2305634/biofuel_and_biomass_sustainability_standards_are_pure_greenwash.html">greenwash</a>.</p>
<p>There simply isn’t enough accessible land for all the <a href="https://newint.org/features/2015/03/01/desertec-long/">solar</a> or <a href="https://steffenboehm.net/2015/02/01/turbines-of-trouble-a-question-of-scale-and-land/">wind</a> farms that would be needed to transition to a renewable future. Wherever renewables have been developed at the "mega” level, they end up bulldozing, quite literally, people and wildlife. And generally it’s the poorest, usually rural, communities who are disproportionately affected, given that their land values are lowest and existing users have little power or formal land rights. For example, large-scale hydroelectric dam projects, currently the greatest source of renewable energy, have destroyed many <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/human-impacts-of-dams">human communities</a> and flooded irreplaceable <a href="https://www.internationalrivers.org/environmental-impacts-of-dams">natural habitats</a>.</p>
<p>Yes, <a href="http://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/what-are-advantages-and-disadvantages-offshore-wind-farms">offshore wind</a> can fill some of the gaps, but it is more expensive to build and maintain than onshore, and the generated energy has to be transmitted over long distances.</p>
<h2>Heavy on metals</h2>
<p>Third, as French scientist <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n11/abs/ngeo1993.html">Olivier Vidal and his colleagues</a> recently pointed out, the shift to renewable energy will “replace one non-renewable resource (fossil-fuels) with another (metals and minerals).” Vidal estimates that 3,200 million tonnes of steel, 310 million tonnes of aluminium and 40 million tonnes of copper would be needed to build the latest generations of wind and solar facilities. Together with demand from electric vehicle manufacturers, a worldwide renewables boom would rely on a 5% to 18% annual increase in global production of minerals for the next 40 years.</p>
<p>Similarly startling projections are made for other materials oiling the wheels of green capitalism, including silver, lithium, copper, silicon, gallium and the rare earths. In many cases, supplies of these <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n2/full/nclimate2504.html?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201502&spMailingID=47903534&spUserID=MzcwNDE0MDAwODES1&spJobID=603837301&spReportId=NjAzODM3MzAxS0">raw materials</a> are already dwindling. The <a href="https://www.americanelements.com/PDFs/Rare-earths.pdf">Toyota Prius</a>, for example, one of the greenest cars on the market, relies on a range of very dirty rare earth minerals, the excavation and processing of which has devastated large areas of <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1350811/In-China-true-cost-Britains-clean-green-wind-power-experiment-Pollution-disastrous-scale.html">Inner Mongolia in China</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144460/original/image-20161103-25362-g84tje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144460/original/image-20161103-25362-g84tje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144460/original/image-20161103-25362-g84tje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144460/original/image-20161103-25362-g84tje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144460/original/image-20161103-25362-g84tje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144460/original/image-20161103-25362-g84tje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144460/original/image-20161103-25362-g84tje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144460/original/image-20161103-25362-g84tje.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The other side of the green industry: soil containing rare earth metals is loaded onto ships.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">tab62 / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Removing carbon</h2>
<p>Lastly, the climate challenge is so urgent and huge that we actually <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-emissions-cuts-arent-enough-well-have-to-put-carbon-back-in-the-ground-52175">need to remove carbon from the atmosphere</a>, rather than just switching to renewables. That’s the view of prominent climate scientist <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0081648">James Hansen</a>, the former head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who has shown that, even if we switched to zero-carbon energy sources today, we would still be facing a serious climate challenge for centuries to come.</p>
<p>What this all means is that the Paris agreement doesn’t go far enough. In fact, it might give us the impression of moving in the right direction, but actually the pledged actions are so far off what is needed, it spreads false hope.</p>
<p>So, what is needed then?</p>
<ul>
<li><p>A realisation that simply switching to renewables alone will not solve the climate change problem.</p></li>
<li><p>We need to start removing carbon from the atmosphere.</p></li>
<li><p>We need to tackle the demand side. We cannot simply assume that relentless economic growth is compatible with a green future.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These points raise uncomfortable questions that only those who can think and act against the grain dare to ask. I’m not saying that we shouldn’t transition to renewable energy. Not at all. But that alone will not save the climate. The world’s climate experts and leaders in business, government and NGOs, who are about to gather in <a href="http://www.cop22-morocco.com/">Marrakesh</a> for yet another UN conference, would do well in starting to engage with this uncomfortable truth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffen Böhm has received funding from: British Academy, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), East of England Co-operative Society, Swedish Energy Agency, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, and Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), though he writes in a personal capacity.</span></em></p>Wind and solar farms are great. But we need to reduce energy demand and start taking carbon out of the atmosphere.Steffen Böhm, Professor in Organisation & Sustainability, University of ExeterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/679922016-11-03T22:19:58Z2016-11-03T22:19:58ZThe rubber will hit the road for developing countries at COP22 in Marrakech<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144249/original/image-20161102-27218-ypucpi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hard decisions must be made, and commitments must be backed up by concrete action at this year's climate conference in Morocco.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The main objective of the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/index_en.htm">Paris Climate Agreement</a> is to limit the global temperature increase to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5. The recognition of the 1.5 degree target is of central importance. This is because African countries are highly vulnerable to climate change.</p>
<p>Temperatures across Africa, however, are rising. This year marks the moment when carbon dioxide officially passed the symbolic 400 parts per million (ppm) mark. And, according to scientists, it will not return to below this in <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/world-passes-400-ppm-threshold-permanently-20738">our lifetimes</a>. The safe level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is <a href="http://400.350.org">350ppm</a>. Passing the symbolic 400ppm mark permanently is a clear sign that mean annual temperature rise in Africa is likely to exceed 2°C by the end of this century.</p>
<p>The deal <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">struck</a> last December under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris marked a seminal moment in the development of the international climate change regime. The deal is also an important tool in mobilising finance, technological support and capacity building for developing countries to help them cope with and tackle climate change.</p>
<p>But the details still need to be worked out. As Patricia Espinosa, the Executive Secretary of the convention <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/meeting/9567.php">said:</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>while the Paris Agreement gave clear pathways and a final destination in respect to decisive action on climate change, many of the details regarding how to move forward as one global community in that common direction still need to be resolved.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The 22nd Conference of the Parties (COP22) taking place in Morocco holds considerable potential to accelerate and amplify the decisions made a year ago in Paris. </p>
<h2>African concerns</h2>
<p>In Cairo earlier this year African ministers of environment and representatives of more than 45 African countries <a href="http://www.greenafricadirectory.org/african-ministers-pledge-accelerated-action-on-sustainable-development-climate-change-and-illegal-trade-in-wildlife/">welcomed</a> the adoption of the Paris Agreement. They emphasised that the agreement accommodated many African concerns and interests. The meeting also stressed the need for African countries to continue engaging actively in climate change negotiations to provide further guidance on the implementation of the Agreement.</p>
<p>One of the most contentious issues on the table will be the progress towards mobilising the $100bn a year <a href="http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/one-hundred-billion-dollars/">promised</a> by developed countries to developing economies by 2020.</p>
<p>South Africa has played a leading role in helping to secure climate financing for developing countries. Ensuring meaningful progress on reaching this $100bn target will be a key element of South Africa’s proposed position in Marrakech. </p>
<p>But there is considerable concern about the promised $100bn and where it will come from. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/cop22-eu-climate-financing-still-only-theoretical/">Oxfam France recently complained</a> that a recent meeting of European Finance Ministers gave no concrete indication about how they are going to increase the total amount of aid to meet the $100 billion objective. This omission is significant as the EU represents one of the main providers of development funding.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://pibphoto.nic.in/documents/rlink/2015/nov/p2015112901.pdf">paper</a> published by the Indian Ministry of Economic Affairs questioned the findings of an earlier <a href="http://www.oecd.org/env/cc/oecd-cpi-climate-finance-report.htm">Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report</a> that said developed countries had mobilised $57bn of climate aid in 2013-14. Indian officials suggested that the true amount figure mobilised by rich countries may only be $2.2bn. </p>
<p>The discrepancy is <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/cop22-eu-climate-financing-still-only-theoretical/">important</a> because the OECD’s report is accepted by developed countries as the basis of negotiations and evidence that there has been significant progress made towards the $100bn commitment.</p>
<p>In Marrakech <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/events/department_activities/2016stakeholderconsultation_aheadof_cop22morocco">South Africa’s will press for</a> a clear pathway to realising the $100bn of climate finance per year by 2020. </p>
<h2>Mitigation and adaptation</h2>
<p>Another key element of <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/events/department_activities/2016stakeholderconsultation_aheadof_cop22morocco">South Africa’s proposed position</a> for the conference is adaptation. The adaptation component of Nationally Determined Commitments is central to the call by a number of developing countries, particularly in Africa, for a balanced treatment of mitigation and adaptation. South Africa believes the agreement should address vulnerability, priorities, plans and actions, implementation and support needs, as well as adaptation efforts for recognition in the case of developing countries.</p>
<p>On mitigation, South Africa wants to see progress on the features and information contained in the Nationally Determined Contributions at COP22. This includes the consideration of common time frames for contributions to allow for effective global stocktaking and ratcheting up of country commitments in future. This is essential if the target of 2°C is to be met.</p>
<p>South Africa has ratified the agreement along with <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php">17</a> other African countries. These are Algeria, Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Cote D'Ivoire, Ghana, Madagascar, Mali, Morocco, Namibia, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Swaziland and Uganda. Signing the agreement requires countries to adopt it within their own legal systems through ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. </p>
<p>They are among <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php">92 countries</a> to have ratified the terms of the agreement. This breaks all UN records when it comes to how fast an agreement enters into force.</p>
<p>But signatures alone won’t do the trick. Hard decisions must be made, and commitments must be backed up by concrete action. Developing countries like South Africa will be pushing for this to happen in Marrakech.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camilla Adelle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Paris climate conference made key plans to avert global warming. The conference in Morocco will hope to put these plans in action.Camilla Adelle, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/681402016-11-03T19:07:46Z2016-11-03T19:07:46ZThe Paris climate deal has come into force – what next for Australia?<p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris climate agreement</a> comes into legal force today, just 11 months after it was concluded and 30 days after it <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-agreement-comes-into-force-now-time-for-australia-to-step-up-66559">met its ratification threshold</a> of 55 parties accounting for at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>By contrast, the <a href="http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php">Kyoto Protocol</a>, which this treaty now replaces, took more than 8 years to come into force, slowed by the United States’ persistent and erosive opposition.</p>
<p>At the time of writing, the Agreement has been <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">ratified</a> by 94 parties, including the world’s four largest emitters: China, the United States, the European Union and India. As <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/hot-topics/ratification-%20tracker.html">Climate Analytics reports</a>, these nations account for 66% of greenhouse emissions. Even if the United States were to withdraw its support under a Trump presidency, the Paris Agreement will remain in force.</p>
<p>The unprecedented speed with which this has been achieved reflects the acute realisation in the international community – following the debacle of the Copenhagen negotiations in 2009 – that a failure to land this treaty quickly would probably have led to the collapse of the United Nations climate regime.</p>
<p>It also reflects the flexibility of the Agreement itself. Its curious mixture of binding and voluntary elements was designed to be attractive and accommodating, to include both developed and developing states and, specifically, to enable President Barack Obama to sidestep an obstructive US Congress in providing his support.</p>
<p>The result is a legal hybrid that obliges parties to abide by processes, mechanisms and timetables for setting and reviewing their national climate targets, and providing climate finance to developing countries.</p>
<p>But the treaty doesn’t compel those national efforts collectively to meet its <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">core aims</a>: to keep global warming well below 2°C and as close as possible to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels; to peak global emissions as soon as possible; and to reach zero net global emissions in the second half of this century. Worse still, the currently pledged targets would <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-countries-need-to-at-least-double-their-efforts-on-climate-study-49731">deliver some 3°C of overall warming</a> by the end of this century.</p>
<p>Because the treaty relies on “intended” national climate targets rather than binding ones, much hinges on the success of the requirement for nations to review and toughen them every five years. The theory is that these global stocktakes of collective progress (beginning with a facilitative dialogue among parties in 2018) will generate enough pressure for individual nations to be encouraged to ratchet up their efforts as they go.</p>
<p>For these reasons – because of its emphasis on process and its lack of compliance mechanisms – the Agreement has been described as a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644016.2016.1191818?journalCode=fenp20">promissory note</a>, or prematurely <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-emissions-cuts-arent-enough-well-have-to-put-carbon-back-in-the-ground-52175">criticised as inadequate</a>.</p>
<h2>A work in progress</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-paris-what-was-really-achieved-at-the-cop21-climate-summit-and-what-next-52320">Euphoria greeted the successful conclusion</a> of the Paris summit last year, and 175 countries rushed to sign the Agreement when it <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-agreement-signing-ceremony-at-a-glance-58221">opened for signatures in April this year</a> (in all, 192 states have now done so). Nevertheless, given the Kyoto experience, few anticipated that this enthusiasm would carry the treaty across the ratification threshold so soon.</p>
<p>So while there will be more celebrations at <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/meeting/9567.php">this year’s UN climate summit</a>, which begins in Marrakech on Monday, negotiators and UN bureaucrats have been caught out. In some senses, the Paris Agreement is a framework agreement within a Framework Agreement (the <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, of which this is a subsidiary part). It’s a work in progress with lots of details yet to be filled in.</p>
<p>The newly formed <a href="http://unfccc.int/bodies/apa/body/9399.php">Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement</a> will be scrambling to define key elements governing the new treaty’s implementation. Many of these elements are critical to the treaty’s long-term effectiveness. They include measures to ensure transparent and effective accounting of countries’ emissions reductions; to work out exactly how the ambition of “zero net emissions” will be met; and to transfer crucial economic measures used under the Kyoto Protocol over to the new framework.</p>
<p>The Agreement requests that this be done by the first session of the Conference of the Parties to the new treaty. As this now will occur in Marrakech, time is too short and such labour is likely to continue through 2017 and perhaps beyond.</p>
<h2>From Paris to Australia</h2>
<p>Australia is expected to ratify the Agreement <a href="http://foreignminister.gov.au/releases/Pages/2016/jb_mr_160831c.aspx">later this year</a>. When it does so, it will be committing itself to regularly increasing its efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, improve climate adaptation, and provide climate finance.</p>
<p>Like other nations, Australia will have to review and toughen its climate targets every five years, starting no later than 2020, and report back regularly on its efforts.</p>
<p>While Australia’s 2020 and 2030 emissions targets are <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">seen as weak</a> by international standards, doubts have still been expressed about the federal government’s ability to reach them. </p>
<p><a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia.html">Modelling</a> suggests Australia’s emissions are projected to rise to 21% above 2005 levels by 2030 – rather than fall by the 26-28% proclaimed in its <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Australia/1/Australias%20Intended%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution%20to%20a%20new%20Climate%20Change%20Agreement%20-%20August%202015.pdf">official target</a>.</p>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">Emissions Reduction Fund</a> has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-these-numbers-australias-emissions-auction-wont-get-the-job-done-40761">criticised</a> as being underfunded and focused on the wrong projects. <a href="https://www.greeninstitute.org.au/sites/default/files/Mulga_Bill_Web_BM%2B_0.pdf">Recent analysis</a> of the contracts awarded through the scheme’s “reverse auctions” confirms that little real additional abatement has been achieved.</p>
<p>Moreover, likely future changes in land use and forestry (mainly reductions in land clearing) will be insufficient to achieve these goals in isolation or to contribute significantly to future ones. The current policy mix means that tougher – and perhaps even existing - national targets could only be met by buying international carbon credits.</p>
<p>In addition, Australia’s reports to the UN will have to reflect “environmental integrity, transparency, accuracy, completeness, comparability and consistency in accordance to rules to be adopted by parties to the Agreement”. The transparency and accountability of Australia’s emissions reporting was recently <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/trr/aus.pdf">questioned by the United Nations</a> and by other parties to the Climate Convention. This too will have to improve.</p>
<p>Like other parties, by 2020 Australia will also be invited to provide the UN Climate Secretariat with a long-term low-carbon strategy to run until 2050. Designing an effective transition strategy will require extensive consultation with state and territory governments, industries, and other stakeholders. Such attention to detail, although essential for building wide and deep support for a future low-carbon economy, has so far been well beyond the ability of politicians stuck in Canberra’s toxic climate policy culture.</p>
<p>In all, the Paris Agreement, although voluntary, can be thought of as a global climate safety net held by all nations. This inclusiveness means that Australia will no longer be able to point to the absence of other states as an excuse for its recalcitrance. It will increasingly be held to account by other nations, and the need for meaningful action will become ever more irresistible, as the net gradually tightens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Christoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just 11 months after the Paris climate talks, the resulting treaty has come into force. The rapid ratification looks set to heap even more pressure on Australia to come up with a credible climate policy.Peter Christoff, Associate Professor, School of Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/681242016-11-03T19:07:25Z2016-11-03T19:07:25ZParis climate agreement enters into force: international experts respond<p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris climate agreement</a>, first struck in December 2015, enters into force today. The treaty commits countries worldwide to keep carbon emissions “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.</p>
<p>Countries will pursue self-determined emissions targets, agreed upon before the last round of climate talks, from 2020 onwards. The national targets will be reviewed and strengthened every five years.</p>
<p>The agreement also commits richer countries to provide funding to poorer countries, which have done the least to contribute to climate change but will suffer its worst effects.</p>
<p>As the world embarks on its most dedicated effort yet to prevent catastrophic climate change, The Conversation asked a panel of international experts to give their view on the significance of the agreement coming into force.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Bill Hare: ‘A historic turning point’</h2>
<p>For better or worse, the entry into force of the Paris Agreement is a historic turning point, humanity’s most organised response to date to the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/publication/turn-down-the-heat">largest and most far-reaching challenge</a> to the habitability of the planet and viability of its life: human-induced climate change. </p>
<p>To me, this agreement represents our last best chance to come together and <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n6/full/nclimate2572.html">take the essential steps</a> to prevent the worst consequences of climate change.</p>
<p>Over the next five to ten years, if we succeed in bending the present upward curve of emissions and ramping up climate action – meaning that by 2025 emissions are well and truly on a downward trajectory – then we will be able say the agreement is working. </p>
<p>In this timeframe CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from coal would <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/files/1p5_australia_report_ci.pdf">need to drop at least 25% below recent levels</a>. We would also need to see a whole range actions towards a sustainable, fully renewable, zero-carbon future by 2050. Such an outcome is <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-to-be-cheerful-about-limiting-global-warming-to-1-5-degrees-62125">not beyond what can be imagined</a>, as the necessary measures bring many benefits, and the technologies to get there are getting cheaper every month.</p>
<p>Make no mistake – we would still be confronting major climate challenges <a href="http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/7/327/2016/esd-7-327-2016-discussion.html">even if we limit global average warming to 1.5°C</a>. But without that action our challenges would be immeasurably worse.</p>
<p>Should we not succeed, and emissions continue to increase, the Paris Agreement could come to symbolise all that is wrong with the world, and with the present world order. Such an outcome would be associated with other large-scale societal problems, such as rapidly increasing economic inequity, as well as access to political power and decision-making. Unchecked climate change would exacerbate many of these issues, including the increasing likelihood of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-could-affect-african-migration-patterns-60466">climate-induced migration</a>.</p>
<p>Scientists and policy makers are mobilising now to help in the next great stage of implementing the Paris Agreement, which is to increase the level of ambition and action. An <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">IPCC Special Report is being organised for 2018</a> to assess impact, mitigation, and sustainable development issues surrounding the 1.5°C temperature limit. </p>
<p><a href="http://climateanalytics.org/blog/2016/the-ipccs-1-5c-special-report.html">This report will provide vital</a> input to the <a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/files/documents/Paris_Agreement_Review_Discussion_Brief_170516.pdf">2018 facilitative dialogue</a>, organised by the UN’s climate change organisation, which is meant to examine how countries’ global aggregate level of action stacks up against the required emission pathways in 2025 and 2030. The results of this dialogue will provide guidance to countries as they prepare to submit their updated, and hopefully upgraded, nationally determine contributions by 2020.</p>
<h2>Julia Jones: ‘Forest people cannot bear the costs’</h2>
<p>The loss of tropical forests contributes as much as <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/stop-deforestation/deforestation-global-warming-carbon-emissions.html#.WBnyaHrl8YQ">10% to global emissions of greenhouse gases</a>. For this reason (and because protecting rainforests has other potential benefits), a UN-negotiated mechanism on <a href="http://www.un-redd.org/">Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation</a>, known as REDD+, is widely promoted as an important pillar in efforts to tackle climate change. </p>
<p>Since the idea that tropical forest nations should be funded to slow deforestation was initially proposed in 2005, <a href="http://www.cifor.org/redd-case-book/">many initiatives</a> have sprung up to explore how REDD+ can work in practice. These pilot schemes show that while well-designed projects can deliver <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901110001334">emissions reductions</a>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12500/abstract">conserve biodiversity</a> and <a href="http://www.tnrf.org/files/e-REDD%20Realities.pdf">improve local livelihoods</a>, positive outcomes are <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801630005X">far from guaranteed</a>. A number of groups advocating for the rights of people who live in forests <a href="https://www.iucn.org/content/global-alliance-indigenous-peoples-and-local-communities-against-redd">strongly oppose REDD+</a>, as they believe that it will result in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/jul/03/world-bank-un-redd-genocide-land-carbon-grab-sengwer-kenya">evictions</a>.</p>
<p>As of today, efforts to slow climate change by saving rainforests are enshrined in international law via the Paris Agreement. What will this actually mean for tropical forests and its people? Resources available for conservation will increase, which is certainly positive. </p>
<p>However for millions of people, mostly very poor and politically marginalised, these forests are home and the source of their livelihoods. Their needs, views, and knowledge must be taken into account in any conservation actions. It cannot be fair that forest people bear the costs of mitigating climate change.</p>
<h2>Luke Kemp: Watch out for Donald Trump</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement’s entry into force is both impressive and troubling. It could be a sign of renewed international momentum. But its speed is more likely indicative of a lack of substance.</p>
<p>Ratification means few legal obligations for participating countries. Paris entering into force has more symbolic than legal strength. </p>
<p>What does entry into force mean for those nations that have not joined, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-holding-russia-back-from-ratifying-the-paris-climate-agreement-64842">Russia</a>? Not a great deal for now. Arguably, they should be excluded from having a voice and a vote in initial negotiations over the finer details of the agreement’s implementation. </p>
<p>In practice, diplomats are eager to ensure that Paris <a href="http://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/Encouraging-Increased-Climate-Action-by-Non-Party-Stakeholders.pdf">remains a truly global effort</a>, and have created a technical workaround so that even countries that are yet to ratify can participate in discussions. The (perhaps naïve) assumption is that eventually all parties will join.</p>
<p>In the longer term a lack of ratification is likely to lead to exclusion from discussion under the Paris negotiations, as well as an inability to use elements such as market-based mechanisms under the agreement. Non-ratifying countries will probably also become international pariahs.</p>
<p>However aside from social pressure, the Paris Agreement is extremely weak against countries who choose not to join, or <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2016.1176007?journalCode=tcpo20">opt to withdraw</a>. It contains no “non-party” measures to entice participation or punish non-ratifying countries. Such an arrangement looks fine for now, but it could become a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36401174">fatal flaw</a> if Donald Trump takes power in the US on November 8. </p>
<p>Paris was designed to be a universal agreement that appeals to the United States, trading away strong substance in favour of quick approval and universal participation. A rogue superpower could mark the end of the honeymoon.</p>
<h2>Meraz Mostafa: ‘New approach to climate policy’</h2>
<p>With the activation of the Paris Agreement, the issue of loss and damage becomes a central tenet of international climate governance. The UN climate body is now committed to address the impacts of climate change that go beyond adaptation. These include everything from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/gallery/2016/feb/15/pacific-islands-sinking-states-climate-change">islands sinking in the Pacific Ocean</a> to infrastructure damage during cyclones.</p>
<p>This is somewhat surprising given how contentious the issue of loss and damage has been at climate talks. Arguably, the first reference to the concept was <a href="http://www.icccad.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Loss-and-damage.pdf">proposed in 1991</a> by Vanuatu, whose negotiators unsuccessfully argued for an international risk insurance pool to deal with the adverse affects of climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vanuatu has been advocating for loss and damage since 1991.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it took until 2014 for the UN climate body to establish a separate mechanism, called the <a href="http://unfccc.int/adaptation/workstreams/loss_and_damage/items/8134.php">Warsaw International Mechanism</a>. This mechanism consists of nine action areas ranging from how best to finance loss and damage to how to deal with the impacts of climate change not easily valued in the market (the loss of home, tradition, culture and so on).</p>
<p>Even with this in place before the Paris negotiations last year, several developed countries, <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2016/01/loss-damage-fared-paris-agreement/">including the US</a>, were uneasy about including loss and damage in the agreement. This is because they were worried this issue would quickly bring up the question of whether developed countries could be held liable and have to compensate for their share of greenhouse gas emissions. A comprise was reached in negotiations where a separate article in the agreement was dedicated to loss and damage, but the notion of compensation and liability were explicitly ruled out.</p>
<p>The article on loss and damage in the Paris Agreement mainly focuses on supporting the Warsaw mechanism. The next round of climate talks in Marrakesh will be important, because it is when the negotiators are expected to come to a decision on a five-year rolling working plan for the mechanism.</p>
<p>This plan is yet to be determined, based on the last meeting of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/adaptation/groups_committees/loss_and_damage_executive_committee/items/7543.php">executive committee of the Warsaw mechanism</a> (made up of an equal number of representatives from developed and developing countries). In particular, separate task-forces will be created to address issues such as migration and non-economic loss and damage. An information hub for comprehensive risk management (that is, <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/microinsurance-and-new-market-climate-equity">microinsurance</a>) will also be established.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement is significant, because it establishes a new approach to climate policy, whereby climate change-related loss and damage will have to be addressed alongside mitigation and adaptation.</p>
<h2>Stefan Rahmstorf: Governments should be in emergency mode</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement is the best we could have expected at this point in history. It is a beacon of hope. Almost all nations on Earth have decided to move towards net zero emissions.</p>
<p>It was high time, and in some respects too late. Paris came <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/climate-change-action-paris-summit-by-stefan-rahmstorf-2015-11">almost exactly 50 years</a> after the famous <a href="http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/Caldeira%20downloads/PSAC,%201965,%20Restoring%20the%20Quality%20of%20Our%20Environment.pdf">Revelle report</a> from the US president’s scientific advisory panel issued a stark warning of global warming, melting ice caps and rising seas due to our carbon dioxide emissions. </p>
<p>The long delay in confronting this threat is not least a result of a major, still ongoing obfuscation campaign by fossil fuel interests.</p>
<p>The goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C, or better 1.5°C, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n7/full/nclimate3013.html">is necessary</a>. Two degrees of global warming is very likely to spell <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n2/full/nclimate1674.html">the end of most coral reefs</a> on Earth. Two degrees would mean a <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/11/average-us-family-destroys-football-fields-worth-arctic-sea-ice-every-30-years">largely ice-free Arctic ocean</a> in summer, right up to the North Pole. </p>
<p>Two degrees would be very likely to destabilise the West Antarctic ice sheet (evidence is mounting that <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/112/46/14191.abstract">this has already happened</a>). Such an increase might even destabilise the <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1449.html">Greenland ice sheet</a> and parts of the <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n6/full/nclimate2226.html">East Antarctic ice sheet</a>, locking in more than ten metres of sea-level rise and sealing the fate of coastal cities and island nations.</p>
<p>Some major impacts of our fossil fuel burning cannot be prevented now, thanks to the fateful delays already mentioned. But every 0.1°C of warming we avoid helps contain further massive risks to humanity, including major threats to food security.</p>
<p>Because of all the time that was lost, the remaining emissions budget is very tight: at current rate, we are <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-only-five-years-left-before-one-point-five-c-budget-is-blown">eating up the budget</a> to stay below 1.5°C (with a 50:50 chance) in about ten years. The budget for 2°C would allow us to keep emitting for about <a href="http://www.wri.org/ipcc-infographics">30 years</a>. If we ramp down emissions rapidly we can stretch these budgets out to last longer, but the key here is to turn the tide of emissions now or we can give up on staying well below 2°C. </p>
<p>If we take the Paris Agreement seriously (and we should), governments around the world should be in <a href="http://theconversation.com/februarys-global-temperature-spike-is-a-wake-up-call-56341">emergency mode</a>, taking rapid and decisive measures to get their emissions down.</p>
<h2>Pep Canadell: Little time for celebration</h2>
<p>By all accounts, the Paris Agreement is an astonishing achievement. However, we should spend little time in celebrating its coming into effect and move swiftly from the broader well-intended rhetoric to specific actions. The <a href="http://www.cop22-morocco.com/">next round of climate negotiations</a>, beginning in Marrakesh on November 7 will be the first real test to assess how committed countries are to the goals of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Each individual country needs to show how they will specifically implement the very vague <a href="http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php">National Determined Commitments</a>, and equally important, how they are planning to go beyond those initial commitments, now that we know that the collective effort falls well short of what is required to stay below 2°C.</p>
<h2>Harald Winkler: ‘Implementation of adaptation and mitigation needed’</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement has entered into force. The global significance is the political momentum for climate action continues. From a southern African perspective, the implications for adaptation are at least as important as mitigation – and both will need support. The focus must shift to implementation at the local level.</p>
<p>For Africa, the Paris Agreement gives much greater political visibility to adaptation. <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Article 7</a> includes a global goal for adaptation. But also a review to ensure that the adaptation response is adequate. The adaptation goal links the temperature goal – to be held below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels - with adequacy. </p>
<p>The greater the increase, the worse any negative impact will be, particularly for African countries with low adaptive capacity. International practice on adaptation needs enhancement, this can build on existing <a href="http://www.csir.co.za/nre/docs/INDC_Technical_Report.pdf">methodological work</a>, particularly on information for the adaptation component of Nationally Determined Contributions or other forms of communication. </p>
<p>To take effective adaptation action locally, the <a href="http://web.unep.org/adaptationgapreport/sites/unep.org.adaptationgapreport/files/documents/agr2016.pdf">adaptation finance gap</a> must be addressed.</p>
<p>Certainly all countries will have to do more on mitigation. The literature is clear that the sum of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions “<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7609/full/nature18307.html">still imply</a> a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100”. This is often simplified to mean more mitigation, but in many southern African countries, this will mean “avoided emissions”. The challenge is to follow development pathways – to meet basic developmental needs – without going to high emissions in the first place. Avoiding a high-emissions development pathway is a big ask of African countries.</p>
<p>Support is essential to shift to both low carbon and climate-resilient development pathways.</p>
<p>The strength of the Paris Agreement lies in its comprehensive scope that includes finance, technology and capacity building. The success of local action on adaptation and mitigation depends on implementing these provisions. For the first time in global climate governance, developed countries have agreed to communicate indicative support to developing countries every two years ex ante. Access to environmentally sound technology and capacity building will be important to achieve the necessary transitions. Continuous support for the <a href="https://www.thegef.org/topics/capacity-building-initiative-transparency-cbit">Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency</a> is a crucial aspect of transparency; and transparency related capacity.</p>
<p>Finally, local action is needed – and, globally, a multi-lateral rules-based regime, which is what the world set out to achieve in Durban and agreed in Paris. Fully developing the Paris “rule book” is a key task at the international level. But we dare not wait – each country and all its people need to start to prepare for the impacts, avoid emissions and where emissions are high, reduce them very rapidly indeed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare works for and owns shares in Climate Analytics, a non profit science based institute with headquarters in Berlin. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics have received research grants, Foundation and German Government International Climate Initiative funding for research and activities related to this article.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harald Winkler has been a member of the South African delegation to the climate negotiations under the UNFCCC from 2003 to 2015. His UCT research centre has in the past received funding from the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) for analytical support. This article is written in his personal capacity, does not represent the views of ERC, UCT or DEA and no benefit will accrue to any organisation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Jones is principal investigator of the p4ges.org project (Can payments for ecosystem services reduce poverty?) which is funded by the UK government’s Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation programme (<a href="http://www.espa.ac.uk">www.espa.ac.uk</a>).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Kemp has received funding from the Australian and German governments.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian Climate Change Science Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meraz Mostafa and Stefan Rahmstorf do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Experts agree that a new era for climate policy here. But the hard work starts now.Bill Hare, Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchHarald Winkler, Professor and Director of the Energy Research Centre, University of Cape TownJulia P G Jones, Professor of Conservation Science, Bangor UniversityLuke Kemp, Lecturer in International Relations and Environmental Policy, Australian National UniversityMeraz Mostafa, Research officer, International Centre for Climate Change & Development, Independent University, BangladeshPep Canadell, CSIRO Scientist, and Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project, CSIROStefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/681842016-11-03T15:33:57Z2016-11-03T15:33:57ZHow will the Paris climate agreement change your day-to-day life?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144388/original/image-20161103-25353-1x1j9lt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Crystal-K / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It should be a momentous occasion for the environment. In early October 2016, 55 countries with 55% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions ratified the Paris climate change agreement. On November 4, it comes into force. The main long-term goal is to keep the increase in global average temperature to <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/index_en.htm">well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels</a>. But what does meeting the Paris aims look like in the short-term, within our lifetimes?</p>
<p>The most obvious point is that it requires countries to rapidly reduce their emissions. It’s not clear by precisely how much, or precisely when, this needs to happen – we just don’t know enough about the climate sensitivity for that. But it is clear that to have a fighting chance of meeting the Paris target will require <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7609/full/nature18307.html">large and sustained emissions reductions</a>, starting very, very soon. </p>
<p>This is not remotely close to the path we are on at present. The 2016 BP energy outlook, published after the Paris agreement was signed, sees emissions from fossil fuels <a href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-the-bp-energy-outlook-has-changed-after-paris">continuing to grow substantially</a> at least until the end of its time horizon in 2035.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144383/original/image-20161103-25319-tmlgo3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144383/original/image-20161103-25319-tmlgo3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144383/original/image-20161103-25319-tmlgo3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144383/original/image-20161103-25319-tmlgo3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144383/original/image-20161103-25319-tmlgo3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144383/original/image-20161103-25319-tmlgo3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144383/original/image-20161103-25319-tmlgo3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144383/original/image-20161103-25319-tmlgo3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As CarbonBrief notes, Paris did little to shift BP’s view.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-the-bp-energy-outlook-has-changed-after-paris">CarbonBrief</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So the world says warming of 2 degrees is unacceptable. But people <a href="http://tsss.ca/2016/10/no-country-on-earth-is-taking-the-2-degree-climate-target-seriously/">aren’t acting like it is</a>. Something big is missing: a massive effort to cut emissions. If countries truly are going to meet the Paris goals, this has to change. </p>
<p>This effort could come in the form of lots of centralised regulations, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-a-space-race-approach-to-saving-the-planet-50885">subsidies for low-carbon energy sources</a>. But many experts think strong, comprehensive prices on CO<sub>2</sub> and other greenhouse gas emissions will be <a href="http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2474816/world-bank-emissions-trading-could-cut-carbon-mitigation-costs-by-a-third">considerably cheaper</a>.</p>
<p>Given the scale of the effort required, and the problems that typically occur when governments are asked to spend money on social goods, if we don’t do it as cheaply as we can, we probably won’t do it all.</p>
<p>The “polluter pays principle” is a basic tenet of environmental policy. It says simply that anyone who causes harm should have to pay for it. This calls for prices on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the range of US$150 to $250 per tonne, according to <a href="http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/workingpapers/wp1109.pdf">an economic model of the harm caused by climate change</a> which I devised to guide policymakers – recent <a href="http://news.stanford.edu/2015/01/12/emissions-social-costs-011215/">work by scientists at Stanford</a> broadly agrees.</p>
<p>The price should be much higher per tonne for methane released into the atmosphere by <a href="https://theconversation.com/shale-gas-make-polluters-pay-for-the-social-cost-of-fracking-22139">agriculture and fracking</a> as this is a much more potent greenhouse gas.</p>
<p>To get the emission reductions needed, which could be 3% to 5% per year for more than 50 years, we need these prices in the form of strong, comprehensive taxes on greenhouse gases, paid by firms, farms and final consumers. And <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/5/15/8612113/truth-climate-change">we need them now</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144393/original/image-20161103-25319-15nc9kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144393/original/image-20161103-25319-15nc9kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144393/original/image-20161103-25319-15nc9kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144393/original/image-20161103-25319-15nc9kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144393/original/image-20161103-25319-15nc9kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144393/original/image-20161103-25319-15nc9kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144393/original/image-20161103-25319-15nc9kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144393/original/image-20161103-25319-15nc9kx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not so easy in future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/swallowedtail/19687445949/">Rob Mitchell</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s fair to ask what such taxes would do to energy prices. At $150 per tonne of CO<sub>2</sub>, they would add 25% to petrol prices in the UK, 30% to the price of gas-fired electricity, 50% to gas prices, 75% to the price of coal-fired electricity. They would probably add nearly £100 to the price of a return air ticket from London to southern Europe (and just think what that does to the case for a third runway at Heathrow). </p>
<p>But remember that these measures are still the cheapest way of meeting the Paris target, if that is truly what we intend to do. Strict technical regulations and generous subsidies for solar power or electric cars are likely to cost far more.</p>
<p>Climate taxes also have an upside. At $150 per tonne of CO<sub>2</sub>, they would bring in about £75 billion per year in tax revenue in the UK <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/496942/2014_Final_Emissions_Statistics_Release.pdf">from year one</a> – that’s about <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/539194/Jun16_Receipts_NS_Bulletin_Final.pdf">15% of all UK tax revenue</a>. </p>
<p>If the government chooses, it could use this revenue to reduce VAT by two thirds, once out of the EU, making almost all products at least 10% cheaper at a stroke. Or it could reduce the basic rate of income tax from 20% down to 5%. Or, most likely, it could do some sensible combination, reducing income, sales and payroll taxes, while using a small part of the revenue for information campaigns, basic R&D, and measures to avoid hardship, such as the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/winter-fuel-payment/overview">winter fuel allowance</a> for pensioners. There is some evidence that directing about 10% of the climate tax revenue towards the
poorest two deciles <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/14-carbon-tax-fiscal-reform-morris.pdf">would stop it being regressive</a>. Given the Paris targets will require people to live much cleaner lives anyway, these seem like pretty good side-effects.</p>
<p>So how will the Paris agreement change your life? In all the obvious ways, like encouraging more energy efficiency, more windmills, more electric train travel, possibly more nuclear power. But also in the less obvious ones, like the extra pay in your bank account at the end of each month, the lower cost of a meal out at your favourite restaurant, or the new job opportunities created by lower payroll taxes. </p>
<p>The alternative is to say that cutting emissions as far as this is just too much trouble. In which case we need to be prepared for a radically different world with temperatures rising by 4-6°C or more. That would see ice sheets melt, sea levels rise, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/27/climate-change-rate-to-turn-southern-spain-to-desert-by-2100-report-warns">new deserts form</a>, and many tropical locations become essentially uninhabitable. </p>
<p>The world would have to pay a lot to adapt to this new climate reality, and to become resilient to the ever-worsening impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>I know which world I prefer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68184/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Hope has in the past received funding from the US EPA, UK DECC and the EU ClimateCost programme.</span></em></p>More wind farms, electric cars and efficient lightbulbs, of course. But also lower taxes.Chris Hope, Reader in Policy Modelling, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/674872016-11-03T00:17:37Z2016-11-03T00:17:37ZGlobal climate talks move to Marrakesh: Here’s what they need to achieve<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143921/original/image-20161031-15779-sp3pe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Global climate negotiators come to Marrakesh to talk about how to transfer money from rich to poor countries for climate adaptation, among other issues. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/leungchitak/412969837/">leungchitak/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even though <a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/">evidence</a> on an ever-worsening global climate keeps pouring in with alarming frequency, the last 12 months have, in fact, been a relatively <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/23/the-guardian-view-on-climate-change-good-news-but-not-yet-good-enough?CMP=share_btn_tw">good year for global climate policy</a>. Next week, the world’s countries meet in Marrakesh, Morocco, to follow up on the gains made at Paris last year, and to try to reconcile these two facts.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cop22.ma">22nd conference of the parties (COP22)</a> to the U.N. climate change convention in Marrakesh will not result in a grand agreement or the grandiose chest-thumping that characterized its <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">Paris predecessor</a>. Yet, this meeting is a critical test of whether the parties to the Paris Agreement are willing to realize, or capable of realizing, the promise of Paris and creating a momentum for action. </p>
<h2>Post-Paris cheers</h2>
<p>COP22 will begin with good wind behind its sails, but under some very ominous clouds. </p>
<p>The most visible political gain has been the ratification <a href="http://www.undispatch.com/paris-agreement-coming/">in record time</a> of the Paris Agreement, which <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php">enters into force</a> Nov. 4. By joining, countries have shown a willingness to act on reducing national emissions, although they stopped <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">short of taking on legal commitments</a>. Notwithstanding the fact that the agreement is weak in terms of legally binding obligations, this rapid ratification signifies an important global buy-in. </p>
<p>Related signs of hope come from the two largest emitters, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-renewables-investment-idUSKCN0WQ1IU">China</a> and the <a href="http://www.bna.com/us-unveil-path-n57982079137/">United States</a>, that have begun investing in meaningful domestic initiatives. This is assisted by a palpable shift in the market economics of <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37767250">renewables</a>, especially wind and solar, whose costs in some parts of the world is now <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-japan-energy-irena-idUSKCN0XT19H">rivaling or less than coal</a>.</p>
<p>By far the most important potential game changer in real climatic terms was the agreement in October to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37665529">phase out the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)</a>, a strong greenhouse gas. If fully implemented, this could remove the equivalent of <a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2016/10/climate-deal-on-hfcs-2/">70 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide</a> from the atmosphere by 2050, mostly by developing countries.</p>
<p>Less consequential is the decision by the International Civil Aviation Organization to manage carbon dioxide <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37573434">emissions from international aviation</a> through a carbon offset system. But it is still a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, the International Maritime Organization remained reluctant to agree to similar baby steps for the <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/shipping-industry-postpones-climate-plan-until-2023-20831">international shipping industry</a>. </p>
<h2>Post-Paris tears</h2>
<p>On the other hand, the growing set of new scientific evidence confirms climate change is no longer an issue of the future; it is the most pressing challenge of now. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/august-ties-july-as-hottest-month-on-record-20691">Every month</a> this year has been the hottest ever recorded for that month since measurement began. This was yet another year of <a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/09/16/arctic-summer-sea-ice-going-down-down-down/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=arctic&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body">alarming Arctic ice melt</a>. And <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/science/2016-global-warming-record-temperatures-climate-change.html">2016</a> is poised to be the globally <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/climate-trends-continue-to-break-records">hottest</a> year ever in historical record and the <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201513">40th consecutive year</a> that the annual temperature would be above the 20th-century average. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143916/original/image-20161031-15821-1ue1c9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Signs of a hotter world: Measurements show the Arctic and other parts of the world reaching temperatures much higher than historical averages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The urgency of global climate change is evidenced by the discovery that the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have crossed <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/1024/CO2-levels-hit-400-ppm-milestone-A-prompt-to-turn-Paris-deal-into-action">400 parts per million</a> and are unlikely to drop below this level in our lifetime. There should no longer be any doubt that we are quickly running out of time. </p>
<p>As its host Morocco bills Marrakesh as <a href="http://www.cop22.ma/en/cop22-marrakech-cop-action">“The COP of Action,”</a> COP22 should be judged by the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/30/25-years-cop-failures-paris-climate-change-pakistan-binding-agreements">extent and urgency of implementable action</a> that it triggers in three critical areas: mitigation, adaptation and financing. And, within these, by how much attention and investment is directed towards the needs of the most vulnerable countries. </p>
<h2>Mitigation: Raise ambitions</h2>
<p>The goals of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a> are to reach a global peak in GHG emissions as soon as possible with the intent of holding global average temperature increases to well below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>In support of this, countries have formulated their voluntary commitments for the post-2020 period in the form of <a href="http://unfccc.int/focus/ndc_registry/items/9433.php">Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)</a>. There will be an informal dialogue of these NDCs in 2018 and a formal stocktaking to revisit these targets in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/143922/original/image-20161031-15783-6ttnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The greenhouse gas cuts suggested by the world’s countries in their national plans, even if fully implemented, will not achieve the temperature targets they set for themselves in Paris.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/9240.php">UN Framework Convention on Climate Change</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the current suite of NDCs is simply <a href="http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx">not up to the task</a>. Even with full implementation, there will be an estimated global average temperature increase of between <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7609/abs/nature18307.html">2.6°C and 3.1°C by 2100</a>. Waiting for 2018 or 2023 to review national commitments is too long and condemns the planet to a significant level of warming. For some island states, this could mean devastation.</p>
<p>There is a need to quickly raise ambitions. To come anywhere near the goals they have set for themselves for the next 10-15 years, countries need to have already started making significant, visible cuts in emissions. Most have not. Marrakesh needs to push countries to increased ambition and accelerated emission cuts. </p>
<h2>Adaptation: Real resources needed</h2>
<p>Living as we already do in the <a href="https://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/2015/11/12/najam-talks-about-living-in-the-age-of-adaptation/">“Age of Adaptation,”</a> it would be tragedy compounded if adaptation were to become the lost issue of the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>For many countries – especially the most vulnerable developing countries that have had the least to do with causing the problem and are least able to cope with its impacts – adaptation is not insurance for the future; it is an <a href="http://www.un.org/press/en/2010/sgsm12741.doc.htm">urgent need of today</a>. Most often, the biggest challenges relate to <a href="http://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/2015/02/16/najam-climate-change-food-water-security/">water and agriculture</a>. </p>
<p>The issue is one of resources and investment. There are <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/12/what-does-paris-agreement-mean-climate-resilience-and-adaptation">plenty of dedicated funds</a> established to provide money for adaptation measures. Too often, however, industrialized countries have failed to fulfill their pledges, and access to funds is made difficult by complex procedure and criteria. </p>
<p>Marrakesh needs to ensure that real money is available for adaptation, including a greater share of resources from developed countries dedicated to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/oct/17/climate-change-could-drive-122m-more-people-into-extreme-poverty-by-2030-un-united-nations-report">climate change action in developing countries</a>. And funds need to be accessible to the countries most in need and on terms that meet their own national capabilities and priorities.</p>
<h2>Financing: Show me the $100B</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement calls on all countries to ensure that finance flows worldwide are consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.</p>
<p>Developed countries have pledged to mobilize jointly at least <a href="http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/one-hundred-billion-dollars/">US$100 billion a year</a> from public and private sources in support of mitigation and adaptation in developing countries by 2020, to be scaled up over time as part of the implementation of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Finance discussions, however, are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-biggest-sticking-point-in-paris-climate-talks-money-49193">plagued by political disagreements</a> over what should legitimately be counted as climate finance as well as data uncertainties and difficulties in correctly calculating contributions <a href="http://people.bu.edu/selin/publications/SelinClimateFinance2016.pdf">from different sources</a>. </p>
<p>Developing countries, especially <a href="http://www.thecvf.org">small island states</a>, worry that much of this will be “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/07/paris-climate-change-deal-summit-guide">imaginary money</a>” that will never materialize – at least not in ways in which it can be deployed toward addressing their climate vulnerabilities and survival needs. </p>
<p>COP22 needs to directly address the issue and the legitimate concerns of different stakeholders. A reasonable goal for Marrakesh would be to bring more clarity to the finance issue including what dollars count, how and for what, and how they flow, to whom and for what priorities.</p>
<h2>Make Marrakesh the ‘Action COP’</h2>
<p>COP21 at Paris set for itself the goal of <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-brief-to-the-paris-un-climate-talks-how-we-got-here-and-what-to-watch-for-45919">delivering an agreement</a>. It did. COP22 in Marrakesh has a much more difficult, and important, goal. It must deliver action. This is not going to be easy. </p>
<p>If Marrakesh can build on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">policy momentum of Paris</a> and the dire scientific warnings that have become irrefutable to spur countries to real action, then it would achieve <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/30/25-years-cop-failures-paris-climate-change-pakistan-binding-agreements">a historic and heroic feat</a> worthy of a true “Action COP.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67487/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adil Najam has served as a delegate to multiple climate negotiations, including at Kyoto, Copenhagen and Paris. He also serves on the Board of WWF-International and LEAD-Pakistan and is the Chair of the Board of the South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics (SANDEE). He has also served as a Lead and Convening Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its third and fourth assessments. All views expressed here are his own and do not represent any organizational affiliation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henrik Selin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Negotiators face a daunting task at the COP22 climate talks in Marrakesh: Build on the momentum of Paris and resolve difficult questions over money for poor countries.Adil Najam, Dean, Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston UniversityHenrik Selin, Associate Professor in the Frederick S Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/664352016-10-23T18:19:29Z2016-10-23T18:19:29ZPublic, not private, money needed to plug Africa’s water and sanitation gaps<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141996/original/image-20161017-4768-1ov81cj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In Africa, those consuming water from stand posts often pay the highest price</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>African stakeholders have called for <a href="http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/african-stakeholders-call-for-prioritizing-water-at-cop-22/">water supply and sanitation to be a priority</a> at the next meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They want the November meeting of <a href="http://www.cop22-morocco.com/">COP22</a> to integrate issues related to water supply and sanitation with the climate change agenda.</p>
<p>Some progress has been made on water and sanitation in the past 20 years. Under the Millennium Development Goals, <a href="http://www.wssinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/resources/JMP-Update-report-2015_English.pdf">rates of access</a> in sub-Saharan Africa increased by 20% for drinking water and 6% for sanitation between 1990 and 2015. </p>
<p>But far more needs to be done. Population growth means that the number of people without access to drinking water <a href="http://www.wssinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/resources/JMP-Update-report-2015_English.pdf">increased from</a> 265m in 1990 to 316m in 2015 and those without safe sanitation from 388m to 692m. </p>
<p>The sector is in dire need of extensive investment. Estimates vary slightly but, to achieve the Millennium Development Goal targets, Africa would have to spend about $15bn annually while <a href="http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/sectors/water-supply">current</a> spending is around $3.6bn. </p>
<p>To close the gap, there is <a href="http://unsdsn.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/150619-SDSN-Financing-Sustainable-Development-Paper-FINAL-02.pdf">support</a> for greater private investment in water in developing countries. But the reality is that the financing gap in Africa <a href="http://www.publicfinanceforwash.com/">can only</a> be addressed viably and equitably with a major increase in public investment. </p>
<h2>Privatisation, not the answer</h2>
<p>Water privatisation in sub-Saharan Africa goes back <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-modern-african-studies/article/utility-privatisation-in-sub-saharan-africa-a-case-study-of-water/B08F64045835FB93F55FCF11440AA73F">to 1960</a> and became a core policy in the 1990s but it has proven to be extremely challenging. Private firms have contributed next to nothing in terms of financing the sector in the African region. </p>
<p>According to World Bank research, the private sector has contributed <a href="http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/system/files/AIATT_299-322.pdf">just</a> 0.1 % of water supply and sanitation annual financial flows in sub-Saharan Africa. Funding has <a href="http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/system/files/AIATT_299-322.pdf">mostly come</a> from government sources and overseas aid. </p>
<p>The low levels of private investment are predominantly due to high perceived risks. Investing in this sector requires extensive up front investment in pipes and pumps that takes many years to be recovered. Such investment is at higher risk where end users have low incomes and state capacity is weak. Given the essential nature of water, provision can be politically charged which may affect pricing and increase the investment risk still further. </p>
<p>This has resulted in high rates of cancellation of private contracts for water supply in Africa. <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/2276/608040PUB0Afri10Box358332B01PUBLIC1.pdf?sequence=1">About</a> 29% of contracts have been prematurely terminated. This is a huge problem given the time and money taken up with the tendering process which then sometimes <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/321951468018575158/pdf/756060PPIAF0As00Box374359B00PUBLIC0.pdf">fail to result</a> in a contract being awarded or completed. In Nigeria, for example, privatisation has been on the policy agenda since the late 1990s but still <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/jan/30/water-privatisation-worldwide-failure-lagos-world-bank">no contract</a> has been signed. </p>
<p>When contracts do come through, there is <a href="http://www.psiru.org/sites/default/files/2014-07-EWGHT-efficiency.pdf">little</a> compelling evidence that the private sector is more efficient than public providers in water and sanitation. In cases where the private sector appears to be more productive, it is <a href="http://www.plutobooks.com/display.asp?K=9780745331034&">often</a> as a result of cutting employment or because donor funding was conditional on privatisation. </p>
<p>As the limitations of water privatisation have become clear, there have been calls for innovation in private financing mechanisms. One <a href="https://www.wsp.org/sites/wsp.org/files/publications/WSP-Research-Brief-Leveraging-Public-Funds-to-Attract-Commercial-Finance-Improved-Water-Services.pdf">example</a> is the use of public resources to stimulate private sector investment through “blended finance”. This is where the government provides subsidies and/or guarantees to encourage commercial financiers to invest in water. </p>
<p>But a number of <a href="http://www.oefse.at/fileadmin/content/Downloads/Publikationen/Oepol/Artikel2013/2_Kwakkenbos_Romero.pdf">concerns</a> have been raised with this approach. Private capital is not a substitute for public capital and is volatile and expensive. To date there seems to be <a href="http://www.eurodad.org/files/pdf/1544941-global-financial-flows-aid-and-development.pdf">little justification</a> for diverting limited public resources toward trying to attract investors into the sector rather than investing government funds in water directly.</p>
<h2>Financial sustainability</h2>
<p>The focus on addressing the financing gap for water has also drawn attention to the issue of financial sustainability. Throughout the global water sector, there has been a push for full cost recovery pricing in water. This is where the service provider receives sufficient revenue from customers to cover operating and investment costs. It is seen as a prerequisite for privatisation.</p>
<p>In sub-Saharan Africa it is argued that since only the wealthy have connections to the piped network, a subsidised water tariff – implicit in any price that is below full cost recovery pricing - benefits the better off. <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/2276/608040PUB0Afri10Box358332B01PUBLIC1.pdf?sequence=1">Research by the World Bank</a> has advocated an increase in water tariffs in Africa, arguing that this is affordable, particularly if consumption is lowered.</p>
<p>But full cost recovery raises a number of <a href="https://www.soas.ac.uk/economics/research/workingpapers/file86432.pdf">concerns in practice</a>, again making a case for public financing:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>It is not clear what cost should be recovered. How, for example, should historical costs or leakage costs be accounted for? </p></li>
<li><p>When taken to its logical conclusion, those that cost more to serve will be the poorest households. In Senegal, for <a href="http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Poverty%20Reduction/Inclusive%20development/Senegal_RuralWater_web_PG,E&E.pdf?download">example</a>, poor households pay more for water from a standpipe than those that have access to a private connection.</p></li>
<li><p>Water distribution systems are complex. There is not a simple divide between wealthy households that consume utility water via a piped connection and poorer households that use other sources. For example, in <a href="http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Poverty%20Reduction/Inclusive%20development/Tanzania-Water.pdf">Dar es Salaam</a>, water produced by the public utility is re-sold by private tankers across the city. Sometimes this water changes hands several times before reaching end users. These are often individuals in low-income areas, buying by the jerry can.</p></li>
<li><p>Tariff increases may lead to a reduction in consumption and therefore have an adverse impact on overall revenue. </p></li>
<li><p>Water tariffs <a href="https://www.soas.ac.uk/economics/research/workingpapers/file86432.pdf">are already high</a> in many African countries. Relative to incomes, these are often much higher than water prices in organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, even for the income of the richest quintile.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Little attention to public sector solutions</h2>
<p>Public sector solutions are notably absent from current policy debates even though they have been the <a href="http://www.unrisd.org/80256B3C005BCCF9/(httpAuxPages)/2973AE205C000F1BC125738A00432401/%24file/Prasad-paper.pdf">mainstay of infrastructure development</a> across the world. </p>
<p>In developed countries, universal coverage was largely achieved with government spending raised by taxation and government loans. <a href="http://www.psiru.org/sites/default/files/2007-01-W-waaps.pdf">European and US</a> water and sewerage networks were developed with public funding mechanisms. There is also evidence that that public investment <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/6507">crowds in</a> private investment. </p>
<p>An alternative approach to closing the financing gap is needed, focusing on increasing public revenue rather than pushing for private. There are indications that considerable potential exists to increase revenue mobilisation in the region. For example by, <a href="http://www.actionaid.org/sites/files/actionaid/eac_report.pdf">reducing tax breaks</a>. These are provided to attract investment but evidence suggests they are ineffective. The continent can also focus on <a href="http://www.afdb.org/en/blogs/afdb-championing-inclusive-growth-across-africa/post/hemorrhage-of-illicit-financial-flows-in-africa-11859/">curbing</a> capital flight to increase public revenue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66435/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Bayliss does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Africa is facing an annual financing gap for water infrastructure of around $45bn to meet the needs of its citizens. Where is the money going to come from?Kate Bayliss, Research Fellow, Development Economics, SOAS, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.