tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/dams-1727/articlesDams – The Conversation2024-02-13T15:04:44Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221072024-02-13T15:04:44Z2024-02-13T15:04:44Z17 million South Africans live on communal land – new study of a rural valley offers insights on how to manage it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572398/original/file-20240131-19-f7h2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tyhume Valley in Eastern Cape, South Africa.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wonga Masiza</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Tyhume River, flowing from the forested Amathole Mountains in South Africa’s Eastern Cape province, gives its name to a valley of 20 villages on communal land. Much of the land is being used to keep livestock, as crop production has declined over the years. This land is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837712001998?via%3Dihub">under the custodianship of traditional leaders</a>.</p>
<p>The valley is typical of South Africa’s communal land: affected by <a href="https://doi.org/10.2989/10220119.2022.2138973">soil erosion</a>, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00207233.2021.1886557">bush encroachment</a> and <a href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0301-603X2022000200005">water scarcity</a>. </p>
<p>About one third (over 17 million) of <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/Pages/2017/october/High_Level_Panel/Commissioned_Report_land/Commisioned_Report_on_Tenure_Reform_LARC.pdf">South Africa’s population lives on communal land</a>, which makes up around <a href="https://sarpn.org/documents/d0002695/index.php">13%</a> of all land in the country. The <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201707/40965gen510.pdf">Communal Land Tenure Bill, 2017</a> defines communal land as “owned, occupied or used by members of a community subject to shared rules or norms and customs”. It can also be owned by the state.</p>
<p>This land can benefit rural communities by providing ecosystem goods and services, such as shelter, water, fuelwood, food and cultural amenities. But natural processes and human activity can transform the land. </p>
<p>Unmonitored and poorly managed land changes can trigger soil erosion, overgrazing, loss of biodiversity and water scarcity. In South Africa, communal land is considered to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10260">more degraded than privately owned land</a>. This can negatively affect the livelihoods of people who derive ecosystem services from it.</p>
<p>Common indicators and causes of land degradation are generally understood. But less is known about how people living in communal lands interpret land changes and their impact. It’s unclear what they perceive as land degradation or which kinds of land changes matter most to them. This helps explain the lack of sound policies and practical strategies to rehabilitate land.</p>
<p>Our team of geoinformation scientists at South Africa’s Agricultural Research Council and the University of the Free State carried out <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2023.1205750/full">a study</a> which mapped land use and land cover change in the Tyhume Valley over 30 years. </p>
<p>To understand the extent, causes and impact of communal land change, we analysed a series of historical satellite images from 1989 to 2019 and conducted interviews with locals. Instead of interviewing experts and leaders, the study measured the most common perceptions among community members.</p>
<p>As far as we know, this study is one of the first in South Africa to combine satellite data and local perceptions. This offered a more complete view of communal land change, and valuable insights on its impacts. </p>
<p>We suggested some ways in which this land could be managed better to provide ecosystem services and livelihoods. </p>
<h2>Satellite imagery and community perceptions</h2>
<p>Our study set out to discover whether satellite-measured trends of land use and land cover corresponded with those perceived by the community. We also explored the causes, rate and impact of these trends.</p>
<p>Satellite imagery from 1989 to 2019 revealed increases of the sweet thorn tree (<em>Vachellia karroo</em>) by 25% and the residential area (2.5%). It showed declines of grazing land (18%), cropland (9.6%) and dams (1.1%). </p>
<p>Assisted by 102 long-standing residents, most above 50 years of age, we asked about the causes and impacts of the observed changes. </p>
<p>Most respondents (over 80%) noted the encroachment of the sweet thorn tree on grazing land and abandoned cropland. They said contributing factors were a decrease in fuelwood harvesting due to increased reliance on electricity, the abandonment of cropland (providing habitat for the sweet thorn) and seed dispersal caused by unrestricted movement of animals. Many saw the tree as beneficial because goats like to eat it and it makes good fuel. Others were concerned that this tree was invading productive agricultural land and causing a loss of biodiversity. They mentioned increased scarcity and disappearance of medicinal and culturally significant plants.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/smallholder-crop-farming-is-on-the-decline-in-south-africa-why-it-matters-119333">Smallholder crop farming is on the decline in South Africa. Why it matters</a>
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<p>Most respondents noted a decrease in grazing land, cropland and surface water. As reasons, they cited lack of access control (poor management, allowing bush encroachment), lack of farmer support and equipment, and poor rainfall.</p>
<p>New houses had been erected on grazing land. This was seen as a result of population increase and inward migration. Livestock farmers saw this as a problem because they had to buy fodder or trek their cattle long distances to graze. The population increase also put strain on water resources.</p>
<p>Every village in the area had at least one communal dam that had dried up. Despite 14 years of below-average rainfall and a negative rainfall trend between 1989 and 2019, the trend was not statistically significant. The community perceived that water resources had declined because of overuse and poor maintenance of dams. They said the government no longer desilted community dams, and that the community had abandoned traditional practices such as the maintenance of surface water channels and homestead ponds. </p>
<p>They gave water scarcity as one of the main reasons that croplands had been abandoned.</p>
<p>Most said the communal lands were healthier and offered more resources when areas were fenced off and people had to get permits to use land. Local residents had <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10745-006-9062-9">cut fences</a> to give their animals unlimited access to grazing and water.</p>
<p>Overall, the changes to the Tyhume Valley environment were not positive. The respondents said the decline in agricultural activity had resulted in increased unemployment and consumption of unhealthy food.</p>
<p>Similar changes have been reported on <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03057070.2014.943525">many other communal lands</a>.</p>
<h2>Better land management</h2>
<p>The land can be better managed through interventions by village committees, tribal authorities and extension services, and by following spatial planning and land use guidelines.</p>
<p>The sweet thorn can be controlled by stocking more browsing animals. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2989/10220119.2016.1178172">Studies</a> have demonstrated that this plant has a high nutritive value.</p>
<p>The community, with help from the government, needs to reinstate water harvesting practices and the regular desilting of dams. Other communal <a href="https://www.drdar.gov.za/restoreddamsreducelivestockmortality/">dam restoration projects</a> in the Eastern Cape have succeeded by dredging and augmentation of stock dams.</p>
<p>This study shows that the combination of <a href="https://theconversation.com/technique-developed-in-kenya-offers-a-refined-way-to-map-tree-cover-76709">satellite imagery</a> and local perceptions provides valuable insights about the extent, causes and impacts of land change in communal areas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wonga Masiza receives funding from Agricultural Research Council.</span></em></p>Satellite images and community perceptions combine to give a fuller picture of land use changes.Wonga Masiza, Researcher, Agricultural Research CouncilLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2205192024-01-08T21:40:21Z2024-01-08T21:40:21ZCanada’s Impact Assessment Act must be both Constitutional and ensure a sustainable future<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canadas-impact-assessment-act-must-be-both-constitutional-and-ensure-a-sustainable-future" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Behind closed doors in Ottawa, Canadian government officials are drafting amendments to their advanced but controversial 2019 <a href="https://laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/i-2.75/index.html">Impact Assessment Act</a>, the country’s main tool for assessing major projects that can include big dams, pipelines and mines.</p>
<p>It’s a difficult assignment. For practical and political reasons, they need to work quickly. But they face a longstanding dilemma — how to respect Canada’s venerable Constitution while also applying new knowledge and acting on new imperatives.</p>
<p>The law needs to be amended because, in an <a href="https://decisions.scc-csc.ca/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/20102/index.do">October 2023 ruling</a>, the Supreme Court of Canada found key components to be unconstitutional. </p>
<p>Proposed projects being reviewed under the Impact Assessment Act — <a href="https://iaac-aeic.gc.ca/050/evaluations/exploration?active=true&showMap=false&document_type=project">ranging from gold mines to an airport</a> — have often been <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/supreme-court-simpact-assessment-act-unconstitutional">lightning rods for controversy</a>. How they are assessed and what gets considered in decision-making — especially on whether projects are approved (usually with conditions) or rejected (rarely) — can have major consequences for generations to come.</p>
<p>But most of the projects identified for assessment under the federal law are undertaken in one or more provinces and can involve at least as much provincial as federal jurisdiction.</p>
<h2>Big concerns overlooked</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/const/">Constitution of Canada</a> was adopted in 1867 and updated modestly in 1982 with subsequent clarifications in high court rulings. </p>
<p>It divides powers and responsibilities, assigning some — like fisheries and navigation — to the federal government and others, including most natural resources, to the provinces. Areas of concern that overlap or weren’t recognized in either 1867 or 1982 — like the environment and sustainability, respectively — are problematic.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.scc-csc.ca/case-dossier/cb/2023/40195-eng.aspx">reference case decided in October 2023</a>, a majority of the Supreme Court justices concluded that important Impact Assessment Act provisions, including those on what matters are addressed in federal assessment decision-making, reach too far into provincial jurisdiction.</p>
<p>The amendments now being drafted are aimed at pulling back the overreach for cases involving major matters of provincial jurisdiction. </p>
<p>Unfortunately for the amendment drafters, the constitutionally focused approach outlined in the Supreme Court’s ruling is at odds with the core understandings and objectives of the current act. It also relies on a conception of assessment law that is no longer tenable. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-supreme-court-case-could-decide-the-future-of-canadian-climate-policy-202233">How a Supreme Court case could decide the future of Canadian climate policy</a>
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<h2>Favouring the old way</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court’s suggested approach has two core steps. </p>
<p>First, narrow the agenda of impact assessment to focus on mitigating the adverse environmental effects of proposed projects. </p>
<p>Second, assign responsibility for addressing particular effects according to whether they are within established federal jurisdiction or provincial jurisdiction. </p>
<p>The result would preserve what is, at least according to the court majority, the balanced division of federal and provincial powers and responsibilities set in the Constitution. But whatever the merits may be from a constitutional law perspective, the approach recommended by the Supreme Court would return assessment law and practice to a world that no longer really exists.</p>
<p>When assessment requirements were introduced in the 1970s, a focus on mitigating significant adverse environmental effects was defensible. In today’s world of worsening climate change and deepening unsustainability, mitigation is far from enough. </p>
<p>Canada and the rest of the world are wrestling with how to reverse the trajectories of global warming, biodiversity loss and conflict-inducing inequities. The core challenges are not merely to reduce additional damage, but to achieve long-term transformations to <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era">non-fossil energy</a>, <a href="https://www.decadeonrestoration.org/">restorative ecology</a>, <a href="https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/circular_economy_14_march.pdf">a circular economy</a> and <a href="https://www.undp.org/sustainable-development-goals/reduced-inequalities">equitable distribution</a>. </p>
<p>We also now know that unsustainable trajectories interact, as do all other assessment concerns and opportunities. All are <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1258832">linked in complex social-ecological systems</a> that influence each other continuously at multiple scales. </p>
<h2>The strengths of the existing law</h2>
<p>Splitting assessment components into constitutional silos is not viable in a world of these interactions. On the contrary, such an approach would return us to the pre-assessment world of piecemeal regulatory licensing.</p>
<p>In contrast to earlier federal assessment law, the Impact Assessment Act includes mitigation of adverse effects within a bigger, more demanding and realistic agenda. </p>
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<p>It moves the core objective of assessment from merely reducing additional damage to seeking positive contributions to sustainability. </p>
<p>It establishes a largely open process for integrated decision-making in the public interest, covering social, economic health and environmental impacts and their interactions. And it requires attention to Indigenous rights, environmental obligations and climate commitments. </p>
<p>All these overlap with provincial powers and responsibilities. They should be top priorities for all levels of government hoping to leave a viable world for our grandchildren. </p>
<p>They also come as a package. They are deeply entwined matters of concern and opportunity best understood and addressed together. </p>
<h2>What the amendments must prioritize</h2>
<p>For the drafters of amendments to the Impact Assessment Act, then, the challenge is not only to bring the law into constitutional compliance. It is to craft a constitutionally compliant law that also meets 21st-century needs for assessments and decision-making in the lasting public interest. </p>
<p>Accomplishing that may require some creativity. Certainly, it will entail reinforcing the law’s integrated sustainability agenda. </p>
<p>That requires allowing specified compromises only for decision-making on projects primarily in provincial jurisdiction, expanding collaborative assessments among federal, provincial and Indigenous authorities and increasing the emphasis on broader assessments that address regional and strategic issues and options. </p>
<p>Beyond any immediate changes, the lessons of this case should spur exploration of more positive ways to respect federal, provincial and Indigenous authority by favouring co-operation and empowering, rather than dividing and restricting, responsible decision-making.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220519/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert B. Gibson has funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada for work on next generation assessment. He is also a member of the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada's Technical Advisory Committee on Science and Knowledge.</span></em></p>The Supreme Court of Canada has ruled that the federal Impact Assessment Act needs amendments for Constitutional compliance, but the court’s recommended approach is no longer viable.Robert B. Gibson, Professor of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193332023-12-13T23:53:27Z2023-12-13T23:53:27ZWhen the heat hits, inland waters look inviting. Here’s how we can help people swim safely at natural swimming spots<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564158/original/file-20231207-21-tzvzwq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1532%2C1022&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/visiting-and-exploring-nsw/penrith-beach">Penrith Beach/NSW government</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People love to hang out around water, especially on hot summer days. And, for those who aren’t near the ocean, Australia is blessed with beautiful inland waterways. In New South Wales, the government wants to increase access to these “blue” natural environments, especially for people living far from the coast. </p>
<p>One of these swimming sites is <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/visiting-and-exploring-nsw/penrith-beach">Penrith Beach</a>, which has just opened to the public for the summer. This new site in the heart of Western Sydney is part of the state government’s <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/policy-and-legislation/open-space/open-spaces-program/places-to-swim">Places to Swim</a> program. It’s likely to be an important refuge for locals to seek relief from <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/top-urban-planners-grim-warning-western-sydney-will-be-hottest-place-on-earth-within-months/news-story/8b4e1a6b9bb4564bda2d704330bc6f92">intense summer heat</a>.</p>
<p>Our recently published <a href="https://researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au/islandora/object/uws:73705">research</a> informed the government’s new <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-11/places-to-swim-guideline-draft-public.pdf">Places to Swim guide</a>. Now out for public consultation, the draft guide aims to help anyone involved in establishing or managing a swim site.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A new public beach has been opened at Penrith in Western Sydney.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/olympic-swimming-in-the-seine-highlights-efforts-to-clean-up-city-rivers-worldwide-210714">Olympic swimming in the Seine highlights efforts to clean up city rivers worldwide</a>
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<h2>People want natural swimming spots, but are they safe?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/policy-and-legislation/open-space/open-spaces-program/places-to-swim">Places to Swim</a> program responds to two government surveys, covering <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/policy-and-legislation/open-space-and-parklands/the-greater-sydney-outdoors-study">Greater Sydney</a> and <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/policy-and-legislation/open-space-and-parklands/nsw-regional-outdoor-survey">regional NSW</a>. These showed:</p>
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<li><p>people see access to water as very important – about half enjoy outdoor water recreation activities at least once a week</p></li>
<li><p>swimming in natural areas is growing in popularity </p></li>
<li><p>demand for access points and storage facilities for activities such as kayaking and paddle-boarding is increasing.</p></li>
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<p>But are natural waterways safe to use? Recreation involving waterways inherently entails risks like <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-hot-and-your-local-river-looks-enticing-but-is-too-germy-for-swimming-198506">exposure to waterborne contaminants</a> and potential for injury and drowning. As new swim sites are opened, the risks need to be identified, monitored and managed.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-hot-and-your-local-river-looks-enticing-but-is-too-germy-for-swimming-198506">It’s hot, and your local river looks enticing. But is too germy for swimming?</a>
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<h2>Time spent in ‘blue’ nature has many benefits</h2>
<p>Our report, prepared by the <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/urban-transformations">Urban Transformations Research Centre</a>, outlined the benefits of opening swim sites across the state. </p>
<p>Spending time in “blue” nature has many <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-microbes-to-forest-bathing-here-are-4-ways-healing-nature-is-vital-to-our-recovery-from-covid-19-188458">physical</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/blue-space-access-to-water-features-can-boost-city-dwellers-mental-health-122995">mental</a> benefits. Other social, cultural, economic and ecological spin-offs are equally valuable. </p>
<p>These natural sites are freely available to all (and pleasingly chemical-free). People come together at these places, which strengthens sense of community and belonging.</p>
<p>Economic multipliers arise from the increase in visitors to an area.</p>
<p>An increased public focus on ensuring the water is clean also benefits the wider ecosystems that depend on it.</p>
<p>We also provided a checklist of things to consider when setting up or managing a swim site. These include:</p>
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<li><p>the need to assess upfront, and then continually monitor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-hot-and-your-local-river-looks-enticing-but-is-too-germy-for-swimming-198506">water quality</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/parks-and-green-spaces-are-important-for-our-mental-health-but-we-need-to-make-sure-that-everyone-can-benefit-142322">equitable physical access</a> and transport points</p></li>
<li><p>risks and hazards in what can be physically tricky sites</p></li>
<li><p>environmental considerations, including any critical habitats, in what might otherwise be an undisturbed natural environment</p></li>
<li><p>any required planning processes and formal approvals </p></li>
<li><p>ongoing governance arrangements, which might involve more than one body.</p></li>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-we-love-the-great-outdoors-new-research-shows-part-of-the-answer-is-in-our-genes-175995">Why do we love the great outdoors? New research shows part of the answer is in our genes</a>
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<h2>Learning from the best</h2>
<p><a href="https://researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au/islandora/object/uws:73705">Our report</a> also offered six case studies of projects in Australia and New Zealand, Canada and Europe. These provide good examples of how to proceed. </p>
<p>The case study from New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.lawa.org.nz/explore-data/swimming/">Can I swim here?</a> program has an <a href="https://www.lawa.org.nz/explore-data/swimming/">interactive map</a> to help people find the best places to swim across the country. This public advice, provided by the <a href="https://www.lawa.org.nz/about">Land, Air, Water Aotearoa</a> partnership, includes weekly water quality test results.</p>
<p>In Canada, <a href="https://greatlakes.guide/ideas/citizen-science-in-the-great-lakes-toronto">Toronto on Lake Ontario</a> showcases innovative water-quality monitoring that directly involves the community. It’s done by volunteer “citizen scientists” co-ordinated by a government-funded charity, Swim Drink Fish.</p>
<p>As confirmed by research on <a href="https://theconversation.com/building-a-second-nature-into-our-cities-wildness-art-and-biophilic-design-88642">biophilia</a> – our innate affinity with nature – bringing people closer to nature is not just about direct benefits to individuals. It also encourages us to look after the natural ecosystems on which we ultimately depend. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/many-urban-waterways-were-once-waste-dumps-restoration-efforts-have-made-great-strides-but-theres-more-to-do-to-bring-nature-back-206407">Many urban waterways were once waste dumps. Restoration efforts have made great strides – but there's more to do to bring nature back</a>
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<p>Recognition of the benefits of spending time in “blue” nature will continue to grow. We therefore need to put more effort into designing water-based activities as part of life in our cities and towns. It’s especially important for those without ready access to coastal beaches. </p>
<p>It’s time to get more active in promoting and improving these great water resources. These facilities will also need to be closely monitored and managed. The investment is worth it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219333/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicky Morrison received funding from the NSW government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian A. Wright received funding from the NSW government.</span></em></p>People love natural swimming spots, but it’s important to manage them well to protect both swimmers and the environment.Nicky Morrison, Professor of Planning and Director of Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney UniversityIan A. Wright, Associate Professor in Environmental Science, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2136672023-09-15T14:47:42Z2023-09-15T14:47:42ZLibya flood disaster: scale of the catastrophe must bring the two warring factions together<p>A century ago, the coastal city of Derna was well known for picture-perfect beaches, palm trees and whitewashed villas mainly inhabited by Libya’s Italian colonial occupiers. Today, in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66799518">aftermath of Storm Daniel</a>, which brought 400mm of rain to the region, overwhelming two dams and sweeping millions of tons of water across the city, much of Derna has been flooded. Entire suburbs are reported to have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/12/libya-floods-death-toll-dams-burst">washed into the sea</a> by the tsunami-like wave that barrelled down the normally dry river Wadi Dern through the heart of the city.</p>
<p>The death toll from the catastrophe <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/libya-flooding-death-toll-storm-daniel/story?id=103214362#:%7E:text=The%20Libyan%20Red%20Crescent%20said,another%2010%2C100%20were%20reported%20missing.">is estimated at more than 11,000</a> with another 10,000 missing and feared dead. Countless more people – perhaps one-third of Derna’s inhabitants, have been left homeless.</p>
<p>Derna has been a <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/libya-floods-derna-revolutionary-city-ruined-once-more">centre of resistance</a> to successive Libyan regimes. The former Libyan dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, regarded the city with distrust and deprived it of basic resources and infrastructure. On the eve of Gaddafi’s overthrow by Nato-backed forces in 2011, the Libyan government described Derna as a “hotbed of Islamic fundamentalism”.</p>
<p>In the vacuum left by Gaddafi’s overthrow and the civil war that followed, Derna became a centre for jihadis who pledged their allegiance to Islamic State in 2014. From 2015 to 2018 the <a href="https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/56084/PolicyBrief_2018_09(EN).pdf?sequence=1">city was besieged</a> by Libya’s eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA).</p>
<p>As a result, the city has suffered from decades of neglect and much of its infrastructure dates back to Italian occupation of the country in the early 20th century. The city has <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66797307">no proper hospital and no schools</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1702322193760477557"}"></div></p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230913-libya-s-deadly-dam-collapse-was-decades-in-the-making">Wadi Derna dams</a> that collapsed with such fatal consequences were built in the mid 1970s by a Yugoslav company as part of a project to provide irrigation for the region and drinking water for Derna and other local communities. There are two dams: the biggest, Derna, is 75 metres in height and has a capacity of 18 million cubic meters of water. Mansour is 45 metres and holds 1.5 million cubic metres.</p>
<p>A research paper <a href="https://sebhau.edu.ly/journal/jopas/article/view/2137">published in November 2022</a> said the two were at risk of collapse. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, Derna’s deputy mayor admitted the dams <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/infrastructure-in-libyas-derna-not-built-to-withstand-storm-deputy-mayor">had not been maintained</a> since 2002. </p>
<h2>Divided country</h2>
<p>The situation in Libya is exacerbated by the fact that in the civil war that followed the fall of Gaddafi, the country has essentially become split in half. The western region is governed from Tripoli by prime minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/02/libyas-interim-pm-elected-through-bribery-un-inquiry-says">Abdul Hamid Dbeibah</a> and his UN-approved <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whos-who-libyas-war">Government of National Accord</a>, which took power in 2015 with the promise of holding national elections which have yet to be called.</p>
<p>The east is <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whos-who-libyas-war">administered from Tobruk by a National Assembly</a>, established in 2014 and headed by prime minister Osama Hamad. But the real power lies with Haftar, the commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA). Despite not being internationally recognised, the east (which is in reality the majority of Libyan territory, including vast desert areas in the south) has the lion’s share of Libya’s oil wealth. </p>
<p>In 2020, Haftar overplayed his hand in an <a href="https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2019/whats-happening-in-libya-explainer/index.html">unsuccessful attempt to seize Tripoli</a>. This led to a <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076012">UN-brokered ceasefire</a> and the current uneasy de facto division of power between east and west in Libya.</p>
<p>Even before the devastation of Storm Daniel, Libya was in the throes of a humanitarian crisis. In 2021, the UN estimated that more than <a href="https://libyaupdate.com/un-over-800000-people-need-of-humanitarian-aid-in-libya/">800,000 Libyans</a> were in need of aid after two decades of fighting and unrest and little in the way of reconstruction. </p>
<p>International efforts have hitherto largely depended on Tripoli’s approval to allow aid to reach the east. And even once that is given, the task is made more difficult by the fact that bridges and roads connecting the two parts of the country have been badly damaged in the civil war. </p>
<h2>An opportunity to work together?</h2>
<p>One can only hope that the scale of this tragedy becomes a catalyst for a more functional working relationship between the two regions and the international community. There have been tentative signs that this might be the case. The two governments have demonstrated a willingness to cooperate in recent days and the Dbeibah government in Tripoli has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/libya-storm-aid-idAFS8N3A5025">sent a flight</a> with medical supplies and personnel to the disaster zone.</p>
<p>Despite the historic level of animosity between east and west, there have been precedents where the rival have been forced to cooperate on shared interests. Earlier this year, the rival administrations agreed to form a committee to manage the <a href="https://thearabweekly.com/libyan-rivals-agree-work-together-sharing-oil-revenues">distribution of oil revenues</a> which form the backbone of Libya’s economy. </p>
<p>International aid is beginning to reach the disaster zone. Though the international community does not officially recognise Haftar-led regime, it will inevitably be the primary player in managing and mitigating the effects of this crisis. </p>
<p>Countries that want to help the Libyan citizens most affected will have to work with the Haftar-backed leadership. It is hoped this international engagement could thereby play an important role in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/libyans-come-together-flood-aid-effort-despite-conflict-2023-09-14/">facilitating a rapprochement</a> between the two parts of the country.</p>
<p>Both Libya’s governments have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/14/libya-call-for-inquiry-fury-death-toll-catastrophic-floods">called for an inquiry</a> into the disaster. The chairman of the Presidential Council, <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2167301/world">Mohamed al-Menfi</a>, based in Tobruk, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/14/libya-call-for-inquiry-fury-death-toll-catastrophic-floods#:%7E:text=Menfi%20said%20he%20wanted%20the,collapse%20of%20the%20city's%20dams%E2%80%9D.">said the inquiry</a> should “hold accountable everyone who made a mistake or neglected by abstaining or taking actions that resulted in the collapse of the city’s dams”. </p>
<p>Libya’s attorney general, <a href="https://africanarguments.org/2023/03/libyas-captured-prosecutor/">Al-Siddiq Al-Sour</a>, who is based in Tripoli but officially has jurisdiction over the whole country, called for an investigation into allegations local officials imposed a curfew on the night Storm Daniel struck.</p>
<p>But before any blame is apportioned, the rescue operation must be given priority by both governments, who will need to take a proactive, pragmatic and principled attitude towards working together in the interests of the whole country. Far-fetched as this may seem, it could be a valuable learning experience for both sides.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213667/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dina Rezk receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council and the Leverhulme Trust.</span></em></p>There are signs that the two rival governments are trying to work together in the disaster relief effort.Dina Rezk, Lecturer in Middle Eastern History, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2130722023-09-13T20:05:56Z2023-09-13T20:05:56ZOur unsung farm dams provide vital habitat to threatened species of frogs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547437/original/file-20230911-28-b3mmo6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C3259%2C2433&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Frogs are in trouble. While many of the world’s animal species are now at risk from habitat loss, climate change and other human pressures, frogs are particularly at risk. </p>
<p>That’s because they rely on fresh water – and rivers, creeks and lakes are especially vulnerable to threats and habitat loss. Freshwater creatures are going extinct faster than land or sea-based lifeforms. Frogs are at even higher risk because their life stages require pristine terrestrial and aquatic habitats – and because the lethal <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-worst-animal-disease-is-killing-frogs-worldwide-a-testing-breakthrough-could-help-save-them-205872">amphibian chytrid fungus</a> is after them.</p>
<p>Frogs could use some good news. Here it is: the farm dam. These ubiquitous human-made ponds are scattered across Australia’s rural regions. Our new research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110270">has found</a> they have become home to over two-fifths of Australia’s 240-plus surviving frog species. Better still, as we compiled more than 100,000 audio recordings made by citizen scientists, we could hear the unmistakable calls of species threatened with extinction, such as the green and golden bell frog.</p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="53" data-image="" data-title="Vocalisation of the growling grass frog recorded by a citizen scientist using FrogID" data-size="433238" data-source="Matt Clancy" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-NC" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">
<source src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/2873/litoria-raniformis-frogid-163262-matt-clancy.m4a" type="audio/mp4">
</audio>
<div class="audio-player-caption">
Vocalisation of the growling grass frog recorded by a citizen scientist using FrogID.
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Clancy</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a><span class="download"><span>423 KB</span> <a target="_blank" href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/2873/litoria-raniformis-frogid-163262-matt-clancy.m4a">(download)</a></span></span>
</div></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547374/original/file-20230911-17-andzop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="growling grass frog" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547374/original/file-20230911-17-andzop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547374/original/file-20230911-17-andzop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547374/original/file-20230911-17-andzop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547374/original/file-20230911-17-andzop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547374/original/file-20230911-17-andzop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547374/original/file-20230911-17-andzop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547374/original/file-20230911-17-andzop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=568&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the recordings, we heard the welcome calls of the growling grass frog thousands of times near farm dams.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Which dams are important for frogs?</h2>
<p>Australia has <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/2/319">almost 1.8 million</a> farm dams, storing 20 times the volume of Sydney Harbour. Tens of thousands more are excavated each year. </p>
<p>But which of these small, widely distributed ponds offer the best habitat for frogs? And which of our native frogs are able to use them?</p>
<p>To find out, we drew heavily on the power of citizen science. Thousands of people used the Australian Museum’s <a href="https://www.frogid.net.au/">FrogID app</a> or Melbourne Water’s <a href="https://www.melbournewater.com.au/education/citizen-science/frog-census">Frog Census app</a> to record calling frogs and upload the audio. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/farmers-are-famously-self-reliant-why-not-use-farm-dams-as-mini-hydro-plants-212374">Farmers are famously self-reliant. Why not use farm dams as mini-hydro plants?</a>
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<p>We compiled more than 100,000 recordings near 8,800 farm dam sites. When experts listened to these recordings, they identified 107 different species. </p>
<p>What we were most excited by was discovering species at very real risk of extinction, croaking happily in unnamed dams. These included growling grass frogs (<em>Litoria raniformis</em>), green and golden bell frogs (<em>Litoria aurea</em>), Sloane’s froglet (<em>Crinia sloanei</em>) and northern heath frogs (<em>Litoria littlejohni</em>). </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="21" data-image="" data-title="Recording of Sloane’s Froglet (Crinia sloanei) by a citizen scientist using FrogID" data-size="171771" data-source="Matt Lincoln" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY-NC" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">
<source src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/2874/crinia-sloanei-frogid-277959-matt-lincoln.m4a" type="audio/mp4">
</audio>
<div class="audio-player-caption">
Recording of Sloane’s Froglet (Crinia sloanei) by a citizen scientist using FrogID.
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matt Lincoln</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a><span class="download"><span>168 KB</span> <a target="_blank" href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/2874/crinia-sloanei-frogid-277959-matt-lincoln.m4a">(download)</a></span></span>
</div></p>
<p>This tells us that farm dams can provide breeding habitat for frogs that are vulnerable to extinction – not just for common species.</p>
<p>In the recordings, we heard the growling grass frog over 3,200 times near 315 farm dams dotted around southeast Australia. That’s an important find, given it’s one of six priority frog species in the government’s threatened species <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/action-plan/priority-frogs">action plan</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547373/original/file-20230911-15-xd0q9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="green golden bell frog" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547373/original/file-20230911-15-xd0q9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547373/original/file-20230911-15-xd0q9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547373/original/file-20230911-15-xd0q9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547373/original/file-20230911-15-xd0q9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547373/original/file-20230911-15-xd0q9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547373/original/file-20230911-15-xd0q9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547373/original/file-20230911-15-xd0q9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We heard the vulnerable green and golden bell frog seven times near farm dams.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jodi Rowley/Australian Museum and UNSW</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Frogs love mid-sized old dams</h2>
<p>When we crunched the numbers, we found distinct trends in frog abundance. The dams richest in frog species were those older than 20 years, with a medium surface area around 0.1 hectares (dams get a lot bigger than this), and located in areas with high rainfall and intermediate temperatures.</p>
<p>That makes sense. The older the dam, the more natural it becomes. Aquatic plants have time to grow, while shrubs and plants around the dam provide shelter and calling sites for frogs.</p>
<p>Medium size dams provide frogs with the ideal balance between protection from drying out and reduced danger from fish and reptile predators.</p>
<p>We also detected more frog species in dams close to rivers, lakes or conservation sites. Leapfrogging between nearby wetlands is likely to be an important way frogs colonise farm dams.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547372/original/file-20230911-23-dz1oto.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="figure showing richer and less rich farm dam frog biodiversity" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547372/original/file-20230911-23-dz1oto.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547372/original/file-20230911-23-dz1oto.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=653&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547372/original/file-20230911-23-dz1oto.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=653&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547372/original/file-20230911-23-dz1oto.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=653&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547372/original/file-20230911-23-dz1oto.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547372/original/file-20230911-23-dz1oto.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547372/original/file-20230911-23-dz1oto.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The most frog species were found in farm dams older than 20 years, with a medium surface area (1000m² on average), and in rainfall catchments under 10 hectares. There’s even greater frog diversity near other freshwater systems or conservation areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Farms and frogs can happily coexist</h2>
<p>Is there a clash between what farmers want from their dams and what frogs need? Not necessarily. </p>
<p>It’s certainly true that the banks of dams can, if not looked after, be trampled by livestock into mud. But when farmers fence off parts of the dam banks to protect plants, it benefits <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0256089">livestock health</a>, increases <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.8636">water quality</a>, cuts <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.16237">greenhouse gas emissions</a>, and safeguards breeding habitats for <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.8636">crustaceans</a>, <a href="https://avianres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40657-016-0058-x">birds</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167880918303979">amphibians</a>, which, in Australia, means frogs.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547376/original/file-20230911-19-ritc0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="northern heath frog" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547376/original/file-20230911-19-ritc0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547376/original/file-20230911-19-ritc0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547376/original/file-20230911-19-ritc0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547376/original/file-20230911-19-ritc0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547376/original/file-20230911-19-ritc0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547376/original/file-20230911-19-ritc0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547376/original/file-20230911-19-ritc0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We heard the endangered northern heath frog 22 times near farm dams.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jodi Rowley/Australian Museum and UNSW</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Researchers from <a href="https://www.sustainablefarms.org.au/on-the-farm/farm-dams/">Sustainable Farms</a> have released guides on how to make farm dams even better oases for native wildlife by <a href="https://www.sustainablefarms.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Farm-dams-brochure-v3_online.pdf">managing</a> and <a href="https://www.sustainablefarms.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Farm-Dam-Planting-Guide-brochure-8.2.pdf">revegetating</a> farm dams to boost water quality and biodiversity. </p>
<p>As the federal government advances its plans for a nature repair market, it’s possible we could see a surge of interest in farm dams. </p>
<p>In this scenario, making farm dams more wildlife-friendly could net farmers and landholders biodiversity credits. Given the wealth of frog species in dams, this could present a cost-effective strategy. </p>
<p>Does this mean we should encourage more farm dams? Not necessarily. Farm dams can compete for water with natural freshwater systems and reduce habitat for species relying on ephemeral ponds or streams to breed. Any future financial incentives to re-wild farm dams must not reward the mass creation of farm dams. </p>
<p>As we grapple with the ongoing biodiversity crisis, it makes sense to make the most of what we have. Farm dams are everywhere. Let’s make them a haven for our frogs. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hecs-for-farmers-nature-repair-loans-could-help-biodiversity-recover-and-boost-farm-productivity-204040">HECS for farmers? Nature repair loans could help biodiversity recover – and boost farm productivity</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213072/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martino Malerba receives funding from the Australian Research Council through the DECRA program (DE220100752). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Driscoll receives funding from Australian Pacific Science Foundation and Glenelg Catchment Management Authority to study frog conservation and management. He is affiliated with the Ecological Society of Australia and Society for Conservation Biology.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jodi Rowley is the Lead Scientist of the Australian Museum's citizen science project, FrogID. She has received funding from state, federal and philanthropic agencies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Macreadie receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Wright does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia has almost 1.8 million farm dams – and some are home to threatened frog speciesMartino Malerba, ARC DECRA Fellow, Deakin UniversityDon Driscoll, Professor in Terrestrial Ecology, Deakin UniversityJodi Rowley, Curator, Amphibian & Reptile Conservation Biology, Australian Museum, UNSW SydneyNick Wright, Research scientist, Department of Primary Industries & Regional Development, The University of Western AustraliaPeter Macreadie, Professor of Marine Science & Founder/Director of Blue Carbon Lab, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2072842023-08-28T12:03:27Z2023-08-28T12:03:27ZWhat social change movements can learn from fly fishing: The value of a care-focused message<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544486/original/file-20230824-17-xz9a9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2811%2C1863&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fly-fishing in Alaska's Tongass National Forest.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/fB1dRF">Joseph/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Summer and fall are prime times for getting outdoors across the U.S. According to an annual survey produced by the outdoor industry, 55% of Americans age 6 and up participated in <a href="https://outdoorindustry.org/resource/2023-outdoor-participation-trends-report/">some kind of outdoor recreation</a> in 2022, and that number is on the rise. </p>
<p>However, the activities they choose are shifting. Over the past century, participation has declined in some activities, <a href="https://theconversation.com/fewer-americans-are-hunting-and-that-raises-hard-questions-about-funding-conservation-through-gun-sales-176220">such as hunting</a>, and increased in others, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/could-a-boom-in-us-birding-help-fund-conservation">like bird-watching</a>. </p>
<p>These shifts reflect many factors, including demographic trends and urbanization. But outdoor activities also have their own cultures, which can powerfully affect how participants think about nature. </p>
<p>As scholars who think about <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=u6FOkIQAAAAJ&hl=en">organizational theory</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=F1RxMTcAAAAJ&hl=en">management</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hkKa8JcAAAAJ&hl=en">entrepreneurship</a>, we are interested in understanding effective ways to promote social change. In a recent study, we analyzed the work of the nonprofit group <a href="https://www.tu.org/">Trout Unlimited</a>, which centers on protecting rivers and streams across the U.S. that harbor wild and native trout and salmon. </p>
<p>We found that since its founding in 1959, Trout Unlimited has pursued a unique type of social change. Historically, people fished to obtain food – but Trout Unlimited has reframed the sport as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/01708406231159490">a vehicle for environmental conservation</a>. It did this by gradually shifting members from catch and keep practices to catch and release, with fish carefully returned to the water. In our view, this strategy offers a powerful example of energizing social change through care, rather than disruptive strategies that emphasize power, anger and fearmongering.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">John McMillan, science director for Trout Unlimited’s Wild Steelhead Initiative, walks through the proper technique to catch and release a type of coastal rainbow trout called steelhead.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>A sport that inspires devotion</h2>
<p>Fishing is very popular in the U.S.: As of 2016, <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2018/demo/fhw16-nat.pdf">more then 35 million Americans fished</a>, mainly in fresh water. Trout Unlimited was <a href="https://www.tu.org/about/#:%7E:text=Founded%20in%20Michigan%20in%201959,coldwater%20fisheries%20and%20their%20watersheds.">founded in 1959</a> on the banks of Michigan’s Au Sable River with the aim of building a strong conservation ethic among anglers. Today, the group has more than 300,000 members spanning hundreds of local chapters across the U.S. </p>
<p>Many Trout Unlimited members prefer fly fishing, a technique that uses a rod, reel, specialized weighted fishing line and artificial flies designed to mimic trout’s natural food sources. Trout generally thrive in beautiful, fast-flowing, cold-water streams and rivers; to catch them, fly fishers repeatedly cast a line so that their lure moves like a flying insect landing and floating on the water. It’s a sport that combines deep knowledge of a specific location with time-honored techniques.</p>
<p>In the 1653 classic “<a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/683">The Compleat Angler</a>,” English writer Izaak Walton called fly fishing “an art worthy the knowledge and practice of a wise man.” Norman Maclean’s 1976 book “<a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/R/bo3643831.html">A River Runs Through It</a>,” which recounts the author’s childhood experiences fishing Montana’s Big Blackfoot River, declares, “In our family, there was no clear line between religion and fly fishing.” Changing the practices of devoted anglers is no small feat. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CwRq_pAt9je/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Fly-fishing and stewardship</h2>
<p>The first stage of change that Trout Unlimited pursued in its interactions with members was what we call mending – fixing aspects of a practice that are seen as problematic or damaging. For Trout Unlimited, that meant subtly removing harvesting practice from images of fly fishing, while simultaneously reinforcing anglers’ deep connections to rivers. </p>
<p>This reframing began in the late 1960s and continues today, as we learned by analyzing cover images and editorials from “Trout,” the organization’s member magazine, and interviewing staffers at Trout Unlimited and others throughout the fly fishing industry. Editors of “Trout” scrubbed away images of harvesting gear, such as <a href="https://www.montanaoutdoor.com/2020/03/creels/">creels</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrp-r1iavHY">stringers</a> and spears. Instead, they featured photos of trout being safely released and of caught fish remaining underwater in their environment. </p>
<p>These changes did not directly speak to or challenge anglers’ practices. Instead, they worked more subtly. “Trout” editors also began to describe old harvesting artifacts like creels as “something of a curio” and “relics of the past.” </p>
<p>In another editorial shift, the magazine increasingly featured images of vast river landscapes rather than close-up photos of people fishing. This approach elevated the experience of being in nature above that of catching fish. </p>
<p>Editors included poetry and sermonettes in the magazine that modeled normative values of conservation and catch and release practices. Here’s one example: </p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>Carefully I reach out, and lift him in my net,</em></p>
<p><em>But I make sure not to touch him, until my hands are wet.</em></p>
<p><em>For not doing so would damage him, and that would not be right,</em></p>
<p><em>For this indeed I owe him, for such a noble fight.</em></p>
<p><em>As gently as I can, I remove the hook and set him free …</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Using words and images, the magazine sought to trigger positive emotions and a sense of deep connection and love for trout. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CSouKfBB_IY/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Caring for fishing grounds</h2>
<p>As Trout Unlimited built momentum in the 1960s and ’70s, the organization made river and stream restoration a major priority. This period marked the birth of the modern environmental movement. Americans were recognizing that industrial development was harming precious natural resources, including fishing grounds. </p>
<p>Logging had <a href="https://www.nwcouncil.org/reports/columbia-river-history/logging/">ravaged wetlands and stream banks</a> along river corridors. Dam construction, particularly in Western states, was <a href="https://theconversation.com/removing-dams-from-the-klamath-river-is-a-step-toward-justice-for-native-americans-in-northern-california-196472">blocking fish passage</a>, preventing trout and salmon from swimming upstream to their spawning grounds. Acid drainage from mining operations was <a href="https://www.tu.org/conservation/conservation-areas/watershed-restoration/abandoned-mine-reclamation/">contaminating waterways</a>. And recreational and commercial fishers were over-harvesting many important species.</p>
<p>Trout Unlimited chapters organized events that ranged from local river cleanups to advocating for federal Wild and Scenic designation for free-flowing rivers and streams. This status <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/wild-scenic-rivers#">protects them from overuse and in-stream development</a>, such as dams and irrigation diversions.</p>
<p>Members also campaigned for dam removal to open up fish spawning habitat and for creating “<a href="https://riverreporter.com/stories/special-trout-fishing-regulations,43375">no-kill” zones</a> along stretches of rivers, where catch and release was required. Trout Unlimited framed these efforts as supporting fly fishing through positive change. </p>
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<h2>An inclusive message</h2>
<p>Today, Trout Unlimited <a href="https://www.tu.org/conservation/">centers conservation in its mission</a> of protecting, reconnecting, restoring and sustaining coldwater fisheries. We see the organization as an important model in a world driven by social media algorithms that <a href="https://theconversation.com/hate-cancel-culture-blame-algorithms-129402">amplify negative emotions</a>. In our view, driving change through actions that represent love and care, rather than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2143315">anger and shame</a>, could engage more people in tackling major social challenges.</p>
<p>This approach does have limitations. It is useful when a practice can be altered to be more sustainable, as was the case with catch and release. However, as recent research shows, <a href="https://therevelator.org/recreational-fishing-environmental-impact/">recreational fishing still has major environmental impacts</a>, especially on marine species. And sometimes social change requires ending widespread practices altogether. Nonetheless, the key takeaway for us from Trout Unlimited’s work is that social change doesn’t have to vilify in order to succeed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207284/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Founded in 1959, the membership group Trout Unlimited has changed the culture of fly-fishing and mobilized members to support conservation. Could its approach work for other social problems?Brett Crawford, Associate Professor of Management, Grand Valley State University Erica Coslor, Senior Lecturer in Management, The University of MelbourneMadeline Toubiana, Associate Professor of Entrepreneurship and Organization, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2115652023-08-21T09:29:41Z2023-08-21T09:29:41ZWhy beaver-like dams can protect communities from flooding – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543416/original/file-20230818-25-h4mqsp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1379%2C1032&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A beaver-like dam at Wilde Brook on the Corve catchment in Shropshire.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Jones</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Low cost, human-made river barriers, similar to those built by beavers, can protect communities at risk of flooding. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169423006868?via%3Dihub">new research</a> has found that such natural barriers intentionally increase water levels upstream to slow down river flow. These flood barriers are made of materials like logs, branches, mud and leaves. They reduce downstream water levels by deliberately blocking the river and storing the water. They then slow down the river flow during a storm. </p>
<p>Using natural processes to temporarily store water above and below ground is called natural flood management. It essentially involves using nature as a sponge to soak up rainwater. </p>
<p>Not only does this protect communities further down the river from flooding, but it has other benefits too. It helps to <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abj0988">enhance</a> habitat diversity for river insects and animals, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/esp.5483">trap</a> pollutants, and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169555X11006088?via%3Dihub">enhance</a> the supply of sediment to the floodplain. </p>
<p>It also adds resilience to the river during spells of dry and hot weather by preventing it from drying up entirely. That was a big issue during the summer of 2022, which was the UK’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jul/27/2022-warmest-year-record-uk-met-office-extreme-heat#:%7E:text=2022%20was%20the%20warmest%20year,19%20July%20at%20Coningsby%2C%20Lincolnshire.">warmest on record</a>.</p>
<p>Until our recent research, very little data existed on how effective such river barriers are, or how such approaches might best be used. We also did not understand how these beaver-like dams operate during big storms.</p>
<h2>Slowing the flow</h2>
<p>The presence of a tree trunk or similar obstacle in a river will disrupt its flow. But the exact extent to which the water flow was slowed down by one natural barrier, let alone 50 to 100 barriers, was unknown. We also did not understand how the flow changed for different types of storms and different river settings. </p>
<p>The theoretical idea of a natural barrier is that they have a big hole at the bottom for everyday river flows, as well as holes in between the logs and branches in the upper part of the barrier where the water slowly flows through after a small storm. </p>
<p>During heavy rainfall, the water level gets higher and flows over the top of the barrier. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A brown beaver sits in brown water with a leafy branch in its mouth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543418/original/file-20230818-29-vmwq35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543418/original/file-20230818-29-vmwq35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543418/original/file-20230818-29-vmwq35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543418/original/file-20230818-29-vmwq35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543418/original/file-20230818-29-vmwq35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543418/original/file-20230818-29-vmwq35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543418/original/file-20230818-29-vmwq35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Beavers are natural engineers and make dams by using their teeth to cut trees and branches.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/european-beaver-scotland-uk-113509768">Mark A. Rice/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found that the barrier’s holes can become bigger due to the changing flow of the river. In addition, during a storm, the twigs, leaves and sediment transported by the river flow can accumulate behind the barrier, causing it to grow in size. So, we needed to understand how these natural barriers evolve over time to understand the range of their effectiveness.</p>
<p>Engineers use computer models called “<a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wat2.1568">flood models</a>” which use mathematical equations to predict how different storm sizes impact on river water levels. These help us predict when a river will burst its banks, and then the location and extent of a flooded area. </p>
<p>This is important as it helps governments decide on what type of flood defence is needed to protect people from existing and future flooding. It also helps to determine where new buildings can be constructed that will be safe from flooding, and that such new builds will not make existing houses more vulnerable to floods. </p>
<h2>The Corve catchment in Shropshire</h2>
<p>We gathered data from 105 natural flood barriers on a small Shropshire river to measure their effectiveness in holding back flood waters and to understand how natural flood barriers operate during a storm. We collected water levels, velocity and flow data every 15 minutes for a two year period. </p>
<p>We also used a technique called “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/photogrammetry">photogrammetry</a>”. This is where data from drone photographs are used to obtain accurate measurements of the topography in areas of river covered by trees and other vegetation. </p>
<p>Our results showed that the natural flood barriers at the site could store enough water to fill at least four Olympic-sized swimming pools during significant storms such as <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/storm-dennis">Storm Dennis</a>, which hit the UK in February 2020. </p>
<p>This shows that natural barriers are effective in slowing down the flow of the river during periods of rainfall, storing up vast quantities of water which would otherwise rush through, causing damage to areas downstream. Instead, this force is slowly released over a period of one to two weeks. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beavers-offer-lessons-about-managing-water-in-a-changing-climate-whether-the-challenge-is-drought-or-floods-168545">Beavers offer lessons about managing water in a changing climate, whether the challenge is drought or floods</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our research shows that natural flood management works. It is also cheaper than traditional engineering works and complements rather than replaces existing flood defences.</p>
<p>The information from our study will help natural barriers be more accurately represented in flood models, using our new observations on barrier changes over time and effectiveness during storms. </p>
<p>Society can get better value from our flood defence spending by supporting landowners to install natural solutions. This is increasingly an issue as more and more houses are <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/homes-flooding-building-council-lvgi-b1962122.html">being built</a> on land at risk of flooding. </p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Wilson receives funding from the EPSRC, the Environment Agency, Shropshire Council, and Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council. She received funding from Shropshire Council and Environment Agency to conduct this work. She is a member of the Welsh Government's Flood Coastal Erosion Committee. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Follett receives funding from the Royal Academy of Engineering. She received funding from the European Regional Development Fund through the Welsh Government Sêr Cymru program 80762-CU-241 with a contribution from Jacobs, and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłowdowska‐Curie grant agreement WoodJam No. 745348 to conduct this work. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Valentine Muhawenimana does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new study shows that river barriers, similar to those built by beavers, can protect areas at risk of flooding by storing water upstream.Catherine Wilson, Reader in Environmental Hydraulics, Cardiff UniversityElizabeth Follett, Royal Academy of Engineering Research Fellow, University of LiverpoolValentine Muhawenimana, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Environmental Engineering, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2100522023-07-25T12:24:54Z2023-07-25T12:24:54ZHow well-managed dams and smart forecasting can limit flooding as extreme storms become more common in a warming world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539106/original/file-20230724-23-mmz6zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1917%2C1434&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dams and reservoirs often serve several purposes, including flood control.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/departmentofenergy/40799968363">Karl Specht/U.S. Department of Energy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As rising global temperatures <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/world-meteorological-day/world-meteorological-day-2022-early-warning-early-action/climate-change-and-extreme-weather">make extreme storms more common</a>, the nation’s dams and reservoirs – crucial to keeping communities dry – <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-increasing-stress-on-thousands-of-aging-dams-across-the-us-209568">are being tested</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/intense-storms-the-northeast-cause-catastrophic-flooding">Storms in the U.S. Northeast</a> stretched the region’s flood control systems nearly to the breaking point in July 2023. <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">California</a> and states <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/04/27/mississippi-river-flooding-minnesota-wisconsin-iowa/">along the Mississippi River</a> faced similar flood control challenges in 2023. </p>
<p>Managing these flood control systems is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000432">a careful balancing act</a>. Do managers release water to make room for the storm’s runoff, increasing the risk of flooding downstream, or hold as much as possible to protect downstream farms and communities, which could increase the chance of larger floods if another storm comes through?</p>
<p>The earlier decisions can be made, the better the chance of avoiding downstream damage. But forecasts aren’t always reliable, and waiting for the rain to fall may mean acting too late.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/z-3JR5-afjE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Satellite water vapor imagery from July 9-11, 2023, shows the storms over the Northeast. Moisture-rich clouds are green, while drier air is orange.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I managed flood control reservoirs in Iowa and locks and dams along the Mississippi and Illinois rivers for a decade, and I now research the operation of large systems of reservoirs for flood control at the University of Iowa’s <a href="https://iowafloodcenter.org">Iowa Flood Center</a>. Here’s what reservoir managers think about during storms, and how efforts to improve forecasting may soon be able to reduce flood damage:</p>
<h2>The many roles of dams</h2>
<p>The United States is home to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01134-7">over 50,000 operable reservoirs</a> that are overseen by dozens of state and federal agencies. Cumulatively, these dams store more water than Lakes Erie and Tahoe combined. Thousands of square miles of rainfall may run off the landscape into rivers and streams and ultimately drain into a single reservoir.</p>
<p>Using a gated outlet, reservoirs smooth streamflow throughout the year by storing water during heavy rains and releasing it to offset the effects of drought. This helps ensure a reliable water supply for agriculture, power generation and residential use.</p>
<p>Importantly, the reservoirs also provide flood protection for downstream communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large dam with every gate open, including a spill way." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Stevenson Dam on the Housatonic River in Connecticut can help prevent downstream flooding, but during extreme storms, like the remnants of Hurricane Irene in 2011, its managers have to release more water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Irene/711a93b3fa034b5ab6753fe3c213da7d/photo">AP Photo/Jessica Hill</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Extreme storms can mean difficult trade-offs</h2>
<p>Reservoir management can be drastically complicated when rainfall occurs in concentrated bursts.</p>
<p>Reservoir operators are ready around the clock to respond to heavy rain. By adjusting gates within a reservoir’s outlet, water can be stored behind the dam, just like a bathtub with the drain partially blocked. That allows operators to release water slowly, in a controlled manner, to avoid flooding downstream communities.</p>
<p>Operators can also help downstream communities at risk of flash flooding by limiting the amount of water they release from the reservoir. That decision <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029160">has to be made quickly</a>, though – water takes time to move downstream. If the flow is cut too late, the manager may squander the opportunity to help.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three huge, closed metal gates reflected off wet pavement below." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These 45-foot-high gates on a new auxiliary spillway were designed to allow dam operators to release water from California’s Folsom Reservoir earlier to reduce flood risk in the Sacramento area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sacramentodistrict/31445802114">U.S. Army Corps of Engineers</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s when the entire region is getting heavy rain – both upstream and downstream from the reservoir – that reservoir operators face the greatest stress.</p>
<p>When rainfall is heavy or multiple storms occur in a short period, there often is not enough time to release the accumulated water from one event to make room for the next storm. If a reservoir is full, an overflow spillway will likely be activated, routing additional water around the dam to avoid damaging the dam itself. Though this maintains the structural integrity of the dam, it can drastically worsen downstream flooding.</p>
<h2>What the manuals say</h2>
<p>To help managers make these tough decisions, most flood control reservoirs have a regulation manual that outlines the process for operating the gates during floods.</p>
<p>Every flood control reservoir is unique, and these documents account for the specific priorities associated with each location. A flood control manual may stipulate maximum allowable outflows as reservoir levels rise. It also may constrain flows based on downstream river gauges to reduce flood impacts.</p>
<p>Managers still have to make choices, though. While the manual may give specific storage or downstream flow targets, no two floods are the same. It is up to reservoir operators to determine how to meet those targets. Releasing too little water can increase the risk of even larger floods in the future if more storms are on the way.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Water pours out of seven large flood gates of a dam." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The T. Howard Duckett Dam on the Patuxent River releases water from all seven floodgates in Laurel, Md., in 2014 to manage rainfall from a storm. Parts of the city ended up flooding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SevereWeatherDamEvacuations/e71f483e077f4f45bf5ea2140f30d990/photo">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This trade-off between current and future flood risk is known as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000432">hedging</a>.”</p>
<p>Years of research with complex computer models and simulation have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029160">helped optimize this decision-making process</a>. Unfortunately, what looks good on paper isn’t always easy to put into practice, particularly when many of the nation’s aging dams require manually opening or closing the gates. Further, these decisions are often made during heavy rainfall, when conditions change quickly, and the operators do not have the gift of hindsight.</p>
<h2>Accurate forecasts are essential</h2>
<p>To make the best possible decisions about water releases, accurate forecasts are essential. This is an area ripe for improvement.</p>
<p>The value of a rainfall forecast for reservoir operation can be thought of as a three-legged stool built on where, when and how much rain falls. A rainfall forecast that only gets two of these three variables correct may do more harm than good. For example, a manager could preemptively release water for a storm that is expected upstream of a reservoir – only to see the storm hit downstream instead, potentially causing flood damage when combined with those preemptive releases.</p>
<p>To mitigate this risk, many flood control reservoirs are operated using a “water on the ground” approach. Rather than using a forecast, this approach waits to see where the rain falls and then reacts. Though this often results in a delayed reservoir response, it also reduces the risk of operational mistakes.</p>
<p>Recent projects using “<a href="https://water.ca.gov/News/Blog/2023/Jan-23/Californias-Forecast-Informed-Reservoir-Operations-Are-Key-to-Managing-Floods-and-Water-Supplies">forecast-informed reservoir operation</a>” have shown how advancements in hydrologic forecasting may lead to better reservoir management. Though many of these projects are in early phases, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026604">studies show</a> that there may be potential to use forecast-informed reservoir operation to help manage floods, while also maximizing water supply within regions that are prone to droughts. This trade-off has historically been particularly hard to navigate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Four maps show how risk of extreme precipitation increased in some regions, particularly the Northeast, and projections of increasing rainfall in the East in the coming decades." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The numbers in black dots show the percentage change in extreme rainfall for each region over the years listed. The lower maps show projections. Even in a future with low greenhouse gas emissions, extreme precipitation events will be more likely in some regions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">National Climate Assessment 2018</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As climate change <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">makes extreme rainfall more common</a>, it will further test the nation’s flood-fighting capabilities and reservoir networks’ finite storage.</p>
<p>Expanding the number and size of reservoirs could help, but the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1032/1/012020">social and ecological impacts</a> make reservoir construction a tough political sell. Optimizing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6005">existing storage</a> is the next-best strategy. Regardless, reservoir managers and forecasters are positioned at the front line of a battle that will become more challenging in a warming future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210052/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Riley Post receives funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program (NSF-GRFP, Grant #: 1945994) and the University of Iowa Post-Comprehensive Fellowship.</span></em></p>An engineer who managed dams for years explains the tradeoffs operators make as they decide when to release water and how much to stay safe.Riley Post, PhD Candidate in Water Resources Engineering, University of IowaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2095682023-07-13T12:37:12Z2023-07-13T12:37:12ZClimate change is increasing stress on thousands of aging dams across the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536900/original/file-20230711-19-5at0w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3604&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flood damage in Edenville, Mich., after a dam failed on May 19, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MidwestFlooding/29e7a5cbb920467d9c1b84db02553cd0/photo">AP Photo/Carlos Osorio</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Heavy rainfall in the Northeast on June 9-11, 2023, <a href="https://www.boston.com/news/weather/2023/07/11/montpelier-vermont-floods-possible-dam-breach/">generated widespread flooding</a>, particularly in New York’s Hudson Valley and in Vermont. One major concern was the <a href="https://dec.vermont.gov/water-investment/dam-safety/dec-owned-dams#Wrightsville%20Dam">Wrightsville Dam</a>, built in 1935 on the Winooski River north of Vermont’s capital city, Montpelier. The reservoir behind the dam rose to within 1 foot of the dam’s maximum storage capacity, prompting warnings that water could <a href="https://www.boston.com/news/weather/2023/07/11/montpelier-vermont-floods-possible-dam-breach/">overtop the dam</a> and worsen already-dangerous conditions downstream, or damage the dam.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1IjEUscAAAAJ&hl=en">Hiba Baroud</a>, associate professor and associate chair in the department of civil and environmental engineering at Vanderbilt University, explains how flooding stresses dams in a changing climate.</em></p>
<h2>How serious is the risk when flooding overtops a dam?</h2>
<p>Dam overtopping can result in erosion, which subsequently could lead to a dam breach or failure and a sudden, uncontrolled release of impounded water.</p>
<p>The risk of dam overtopping results from the combined effect of a hazardous event, such as heavy rainfall, and the vulnerability of the dam. A vulnerable dam could be old, poorly maintained or not have enough <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/spillway-engineering">spillway capacity</a> to safely release water from the dam.</p>
<p>A dam’s design can affect its ability to withstand overtopping and resist failure. For example, concrete dams can typically better withstand certain levels of overtopping compared to soil embankment dams. </p>
<p>Overtopping is the leading cause of dam failures in the U.S. It accounts for <a href="https://damsafety.org/dam-failures#The%20Causes%20of%20Dam%20Failures">34% of all dam failures</a>. How long water flows over a dam and the volume of water that flows over it are important factors in determining the likelihood that a dam will fail. </p>
<p>The consequences of a dam overtopping, and possibly failing, depend on several factors, such as the purpose of the dam, its size and its location. If a dam is designed for flood protection and is surrounded by homes, businesses or critical infrastructure, a large uncontrolled release of water could be catastrophic. Dams that are small and located in rural areas may cause less damage if they are overtopped or fail. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1678798286939881472"}"></div></p>
<h2>How old are most US dams?</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://nid.sec.usace.army.mil/#/">more than 91,000 dams</a> across the U.S., in all 50 states, with diverse designs and purposes. The average dam age is 60 years, and more than 8,000 dams <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/problem-america-neglected-too-long-deteriorating-dams">are over 90 years old</a>. </p>
<p>Every four years, the <a href="https://www.asce.org/">American Society of Civil Engineers</a> produces a report card for the nation’s infrastructure that assigns grades based on the condition of structures like roads, bridges and dams, and the investments that they need. The most recent report card estimates that 70% of U.S. dams <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/dams-infrastructure/">will be more than 50 years old by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Overall, the report gave U.S. dams a “D” grade and estimated that more than 2,300 <a href="https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/risk-management/dam-safety/rehabilitation-high-hazard-potential-dams">high hazard potential dams</a> – those that could cause loss of life or serious property damage if they fail, based on the level of development around them – lacked emergency action plans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WrTp3JDG9Fs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This video captures the failure of the 90-year-old central spillway of the Lake Dunlap Dam in Seguin, Texas, on May 14, 2019. The collapse led to lawsuits and the creation of a water control district to replace the dam and others like it nearby.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Are there ways to strengthen older dams against flooding without completely replacing them?</h2>
<p>Decommissioning or replacing dams can be complicated and cost-prohibitive. It also can have cascading effects on the surrounding community, and possibly on other infrastructure. Regularly maintaining and upgrading older dams can be a cost-effective way to strengthen them and make them resilient to natural hazards. </p>
<p>When dams no longer serve the purposes for which they were built, they may be partially breached or <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-dams-cause-more-problems-than-they-solve-removing-them-can-pay-off-for-people-and-nature-137346">entirely removed</a> to restore the river’s natural flow. </p>
<p>The Association of State Dam Safety Officials estimates that it would cost <a href="https://damsafety-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/files/2023%20ASDSO%20Costs%20of%20Dam%20Rehab%20Report.pdf">US$157.7 billion</a> to rehabilitate all nonfederal dams in the U.S. Of this amount, about one-fifth ($34.1 billion) is for rehabilitating high hazard potential dams. The 2021 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> includes <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text">approximately $3 billion</a> for dam safety projects, focusing on rehabilitation, retrofitting and removal.</p>
<h2>Is climate change increasing stress on older dams?</h2>
<p>Climate change is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">increasing the frequency and intensity</a> of natural hazards like storms that threaten dams. And these shifts don’t follow historical trends. Conditions that once were considered extreme will likely be more common in the future. </p>
<p>For example, one recent study on predicting coastal flooding found that in New England, a 100-year flood – that’s an event of a magnitude that now has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z">could become an annual occurrence</a> by the late 2100s. </p>
<p>The fact that the climate is changing also means that extreme events are becoming more extreme. In 2015, a 1,000-year rainfall event in South Carolina resulted in <a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/9780784480458.024">breaches of 47 dams</a>. </p>
<p>Designing new dams and upgrading existing infrastructure will need to be based on updated design procedures that take into account future climate projections, not just historical hazardous events. While older dams aren’t necessarily unsafe, they were constructed following outdated design standards and construction procedures and for different environmental conditions. That influences the likelihood and consequences of their failure during disasters. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jxNM4DGBRMU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The near-failure of California’s Oroville Dam in February 2017 led to the evacuation of nearly 190,000 people living downstream. A review cited multiple causes, including design and construction flaws, the bedrock upon which the dam was built and lapses in ongoing inspections.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Do you see this event in Vermont as a warning for other communities?</h2>
<p>The disasters that have hit the U.S. in recent years should spur government agencies and communities to prepare and plan for disasters through proactive steps such as developing emergency action plans. </p>
<p>While the number of high hazard potential dams in the U.S. has <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Dams-2021.pdf">more than doubled in the last 20 years</a> as development has moved farther into rural areas, the proportion of these dams with an emergency action plan has also increased. <a href="https://nid.sec.usace.army.mil/#/">It is now at 76%</a>, which is much higher than just a few years ago.</p>
<p>Vulnerable dams and the risk of dam failure cascade through our economy and affect many sectors. Dams serve many purposes: They provide water for drinking and irrigation, generate energy and protect communities from flooding. They are also part of a large navigation network that transports <a href="https://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/Missions/Value-to-the-Nation/Fast-Facts/Inland-Navigation-Fast-Facts/">more than 500 million tons of commodities</a> across the U.S. each year. </p>
<p>As my colleagues and I have shown, it’s important to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12223">understand the direct and indirect costs</a> when critical infrastructure systems like dams fail. This information is crucial for developing strategies that can help the U.S. prepare for future disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209568/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hiba Baroud receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Transportation. </span></em></p>More extreme rainfall and frequent storms are raising the risk that floodwaters could spill over dams, or that dams could fail.Hiba Baroud, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1964722023-07-12T12:40:09Z2023-07-12T12:40:09ZRemoving dams from the Klamath River is a step toward justice for Native Americans in Northern California<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535134/original/file-20230701-19-wvds62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C0%2C3000%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Water spills over the Copco 1 Dam on the Klamath River near Hornbrook, Calif.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DemolishingtheDams/2bf34b6d43764403a7f7dff2d117b3bd/photo">AP Photo/Gillian Flaccus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Klamath River runs over 250 miles (400 kilometers) from southern Oregon to the Pacific Ocean in Northern California. It flows through the steep, rugged Klamath Mountains, past slopes of redwood, fir, tanoak and madrone, and along pebbled beaches where willows shade the river’s edge. Closer to its mouth at Requa, the trees rising above the river are often blanketed in fog. </p>
<p>The Klamath is central to the worldviews, history and identity of several Native nations. From headwaters in <a href="https://klamathtribes.org/history/">Klamath, Modoc and Yahooskin-Paiute lands</a>, it flows through <a href="https://www.shastaindiannation.org/">Shasta</a>, <a href="https://www.karuk.us/index.php/departments/land-management">Karuk</a>, <a href="http://www.hoopatepa.org/">Hupa</a> and <a href="https://www.yuroktribe.org/our-history">Yurok</a> homelands. The Yurok Tribe has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/29/765480451/tribe-gives-personhood-to-klamath-river">legally recognized the personhood of the river</a>. </p>
<p>Historically, the Klamath was the third-largest Pacific salmon-producing river on the West Coast. The river supported <a href="https://doi.org/10.1577/1548-8446(2005)30%5B10:DOAFIT%5D2.0.CO;2">abundant and diverse runs of native fish</a>, including Chinook and coho salmon, steelhead trout, Pacific lamprey, green sturgeon, eulachon smelt and coastal cutthroat trout. Most of the Klamath in California has been designated since 1981 as “<a href="https://www.rivers.gov/rivers/klamath-ca.php">wild and scenic</a>” – the strongest level of protection for free-flowing rivers.</p>
<p>People and fish of the Klamath River have been interconnected for millennia. But dams and irrigation systems built before the 1960s – along with other pressures, such as logging, mining and overharvesting – have separated fish from their spawning habitats and Indigenous cultures from sacred fish. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535132/original/file-20230701-43706-zd4b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows locations of the four dams on the Klamath." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535132/original/file-20230701-43706-zd4b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535132/original/file-20230701-43706-zd4b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535132/original/file-20230701-43706-zd4b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535132/original/file-20230701-43706-zd4b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535132/original/file-20230701-43706-zd4b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535132/original/file-20230701-43706-zd4b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535132/original/file-20230701-43706-zd4b8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Four hydropower dams on the Klamath River are being removed to restore habitat for endangered salmon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/study-reach-klamath-river-dam-removal-sediment-study">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recognizing this harm, state, federal and tribal agencies now are <a href="https://wildrivers.lostcoastoutpost.com/2023/jun/23/klamath-river-dam-removal-project-commences-krrc-s/">removing four of the Klamath’s six dams</a> to let fish migrate farther upstream to historical habitats. The target completion date is 2024. This <a href="https://www.asce.org/publications-and-news/civil-engineering-source/civil-engineering-magazine/article/2023/05/construction-begins-on-removal-of-4-klamath-river-dams#:%7E:text=Involving%20the%20simultaneous%20removal%20of,in%202016%20to%20oversee%20the">US$450 million project</a> is the <a href="https://www.americanrivers.org/2022/11/five-key-lessons-as-worlds-biggest-dam-removal-project-will-soon-begin-on-the-klamath-river/">largest dam removal in the world</a>. </p>
<p>Dam removals have catalyzed ecological rebound in other rivers, including the <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/west-coast/dam-removals-elwha-river">Elwha in Washington state</a> and the <a href="https://www.mainepublic.org/environment-and-outdoors/2019-07-02/20-years-later-conservationists-celebrate-edwards-dam-removal">Kennebec and Penobscot in Maine</a>. As scholars working in <a href="https://nas.ucdavis.edu/people/beth-middleton">Native American studies</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ulp58GcAAAAJ&hl=en">freshwater ecology</a>, we see the Klamath dam removal as an opportunity to right historical wrongs, improve depleted native fish populations and strengthen an understanding of the relationships between fish and Indigenous peoples.</p>
<h2>People, fish and infrastructure</h2>
<p>Resident fishes of the upper Klamath are <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/endemic-species">highly endemic</a>, meaning that they do not occur anywhere else in the world. They represent a unique collection of species from an ancient river that historically flowed into the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Great-Basin">Great Basin</a> – a swath of arid lands across present-day Nevada and western Utah – before connecting to the lower Klamath River <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/10838/chapter/1">about 1.8 million years ago</a>. Many fishes, particularly Chinook salmon, steelhead and coho salmon, annually migrated to or near the headwaters of the Klamath River to spawn. </p>
<p>As early as 1895, hydroelectric operations began to change the Klamath’s hydrology. In the early 1900s, multiple small regional hydroelectric companies consolidated to form California Oregon Power Co., or Copco, and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation began developing <a href="https://www.usbr.gov/history/">water storage and diversion projects</a>. </p>
<p>White settlers in California had already been <a href="https://www.history.com/news/californias-little-known-genocide">violently attempting to eradicate Native Americans</a> since the mid-1800s. Dam building ushered in a <a href="https://books.google.com.et/books?id=kdHmDShCUZgC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false">new phase of attempted removal</a> for tribes whose lives and cultures were centered along the rivers. Farming communities and lumber companies invaded the ancestral homelands of the Yurok and Karuk peoples. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535140/original/file-20230701-93898-1gg2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A river flows past evergreen trees with mountains in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535140/original/file-20230701-93898-1gg2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535140/original/file-20230701-93898-1gg2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535140/original/file-20230701-93898-1gg2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535140/original/file-20230701-93898-1gg2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535140/original/file-20230701-93898-1gg2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535140/original/file-20230701-93898-1gg2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535140/original/file-20230701-93898-1gg2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Klamath River runs from Oregon’s high desert interior through the Cascades and the Klamath Mountains, entering the Pacific Ocean in Northern California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/WBCmEX">Bob Wick, BLM/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Declining fisheries</h2>
<p>Permitting processes in the heyday of Western dam construction did not consider impacts on Indigenous nations or fisheries. Construction of Copco 1 blocked all fish migration to the Klamath’s upper reaches starting in 1912. Subsequently, Copco 2, J.C. Boyle and Iron Gate dams further shortened fish migrations, cutting off access to approximately 400 miles (650 kilometers) of productive spawning and rearing habitat. None of these dams included <a href="https://www.pnnl.gov/explainer-articles/fish-passage">passage systems</a> to help fish access upstream habitats.</p>
<p>Today, wild spring-run Chinook are largely absent from the basin, except for a small population associated with the Salmon River and another population released from a hatchery on the Trinity River. Wild spring-run Chinook have <a href="https://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/CRP/docs/klamath_reintroduction_plan/ODFW%20and%20The%20Klamath%20Tribes_Upper%20Klamath%20Basin%20anadromous%20reintroduction%20implementation%20plan_Final%202021.pdf">declined by 98% from historical baselines</a>. </p>
<p>Fall-run Chinook still return to the basin in moderate to small numbers, partly because two hatcheries on the Klamath produce and release <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/10838/chapter/1">up to 12 million juveniles annually</a>. According to a <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520227545/inland-fishes-of-california">2002 estimate</a>, between 20,000 and 40,000 wild fall-run Chinook salmon now return from the ocean annually, down from approximately 500,000 historically.</p>
<p>Other native fishes in the Klamath Basin are also in severe decline. The Coho salmon, shortnose sucker, Lost River sucker, bull trout and euchalon all are <a href="https://www.fws.gov/program/endangered-species">federally listed</a> as threatened or endangered. Conservationists have petitioned regulators to list other species, including spring-run Chinook, steelhead and lamprey. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535141/original/file-20230701-38139-emghe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man examines a felled redwood roughly seven feet in diameter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535141/original/file-20230701-38139-emghe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535141/original/file-20230701-38139-emghe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535141/original/file-20230701-38139-emghe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535141/original/file-20230701-38139-emghe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535141/original/file-20230701-38139-emghe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535141/original/file-20230701-38139-emghe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535141/original/file-20230701-38139-emghe2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dave Severns, a member of the Yurok Tribe, uses traditional methods to craft canoes from hollowed redwood trunks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/klamath-ca-thursday-june-10-2021-the-yurok-tribe-offers-news-photo/1233879225">Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Impacts on tribal nations</h2>
<p>Development in the Klamath Basin has pitted agricultural interests against tribal nations and fish, particularly during dry years. Lack of fish passage systems and lower river flow have contributed to fish declines and disease. </p>
<p>Losing salmon along the Klamath is traumatic for Native nations, which see the fish as <a href="https://www.hcn.org/issues/53.9/indigenous-affairs-klamath-basin-the-familial-bond-between-the-klamath-river-and-the-yurok-people">a cultural and spiritual keystone</a>. For them, working to remove the dams and protect the salmon is a commitment and a responsibility. </p>
<p>As Yurok tribal member Brook Thompson, a restoration engineer, stated in a recent article:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“My people have lived on the Klamath for thousands of years, and I know that the salmon today are the descendants of those my ancestors managed. These salmon are a direct tie to my ancestors – the physical representation of their love for me. <a href="https://www.hcn.org/issues/53.9/indigenous-affairs-klamath-basin-the-familial-bond-between-the-klamath-river-and-the-yurok-people">The salmon are my relatives</a>.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Tribes have legal rights to protect their fisheries and, ultimately, their cultural survival. In Western water law, rights often follow a first-in-time logic, meaning that the first party to claim or appropriate water <a href="https://www.watereducation.org/aquapedia/water-rights-california">holds the right to it</a>. According to the Winters doctrine, established in a <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/207/564/">1908 Supreme Court ruling</a>, tribal water rights extend back to the dates when reservations were created. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/skokfZFMwI0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Native American communities in the Pacific Northwest have fought for decades to remove hydroelectric dams that harm salmon migration.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Klamath River Reservation was established primarily for Yurok <a href="https://media.fisheries.noaa.gov/dam-migration/yurok_klamath_doi_2011.pdf">on the lower Klamath in 1855</a>, long before water development upstream. Upriver, lands were <a href="https://treaties.okstate.edu/treaties/treaty-with-the-klamath-etc-1864-0865">recognized for the Klamath tribes in 1864</a>. </p>
<p>In 1954 Congress <a href="https://klamathtribes.org/history/">terminated federal recognition</a> for the Klamath Tribe. Three decades later, however, in the 1983 case <a href="https://casetext.com/case/united-states-v-adair-3">U.S. v. Adair</a>, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit recognized that the tribe retained enough water rights to protect its treaty-guaranteed hunting and fishing rights on former reservation land. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/owrd/programs/waterrights/adjudications/klamathriverbasinadj/pages/default.aspx">state quantification process</a> affirmed in 2012 and reaffirmed in 2021 that tribes had the <a href="https://narf.org/cases/klamath-tribes-water-rights/">most senior water rights in the upper Klamath Basin</a>. The federal government is responsible for ensuring in-stream flows that will sustain the Klamath tribes’ fishing rights, as well as agricultural deliveries to upstream farmers – whose rights generally date to the establishment of the <a href="https://www.usbr.gov/projects/index.php?id=470">federal Klamath Project in 1906</a>. </p>
<p>Downstream, a series of court cases and a 1993 legal opinion from the Department of the Interior <a href="https://www.doi.gov/sites/doi.opengov.ibmcloud.com/files/uploads/M-36979.compressed.pdf">affirmed Yurok and Hoopa fishing rights</a>. Tribes have legal priority, both upriver and downriver. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CsZn-cSOjOQ/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Welcoming salmon home</h2>
<p>Removing the dams will begin to address the terms of the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/116/meeting/house/110110/witnesses/HMTG-116-CN00-Wstate-MyersF-20191022.pdf">Yurok Tribe’s 2019 Resolution 19-40</a>, which recognizes the rights of the Klamath River itself “to exist, flourish, and naturally evolve; to have a clean and healthy environment free from pollutants; to have a stable climate free from human-caused climate change impacts …” and the tribe’s right to “protect the Klamath River, its ecosystem, and species for the continuation of the Yurok people and the Tribe for future generations.”</p>
<p>Dam removal will encourage native and endemic fishes to return to the upper basin and access important spawning and rearing habitats. Fish population responses will probably vary, particularly during the first several years after removal. </p>
<p>However, salmon and trout have evolved to migrate upstream and access important headwater spawning and rearing habitats. Making this possible will support long-term recovery of these ecologically and culturally important species. </p>
<p>It also will promote the recovery of Indigenous peoples’ homelands and lifeways. In Yurok restoration engineer Brook Thompson’s words, “We’re all focused on finding solutions to bringing our salmon back home and creating a healthy life for them. Creating a healthy life for salmon means creating <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skokfZFMwI0">a healthy life for us as people</a>.”</p>
<p><em>The authors thank Barry McCovey Jr., Director of the Yurok Tribal Fisheries Department, for reviewing this article and providing comments.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196472/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beth Rose Middleton Manning receives funding from the Resources Legacy Fund (Open Rivers Fund) to study tribal participation in and leadership in dam removal projects.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Lusardi receives funding from Resource Legacy Fund (Open Rivers Fund) to study the effects of dam removal on river ecology. </span></em></p>The largest dam removal project is moving forward on the Klamath River in California and Oregon. Tribal nations there have fought for decades to protect native fish runs and the ecology of the river.Beth Rose Middleton Manning, Professor of Native American Studies, University of California, DavisRobert Lusardi, Assistant Professor of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology and California Trout-UC Davis Coldwater Fish Scientist, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073612023-06-08T15:19:44Z2023-06-08T15:19:44ZWhat Ukraine dam breach means for the country’s counteroffensive and aid deployment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530928/original/file-20230608-23-mrpuo8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The destruction of the dam has caused massive flooding of nearby villages and in Kherson.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicolas Cleuet/Le Pictorium/Alamy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The humanitarian and ecological challenges caused by the breaching of the Nova Kakhovka dam present massive challenges for Ukraine, as it launches its long-awaited offensive. Mounting operations to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/nova-kakhovka-dam-collapse-flood-first-flooding-deaths-reported-ukraine">assist and evacuate civilians</a> from affected areas will deplete manpower and resources when the conflict is at a critical juncture. </p>
<p>This is to Russia’s advantage. While Ukraine has already <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/07/russia-accused-of-floundering-in-lies-at-un-security-council-after-claiming-ukraine-behind-dam-destruction">deployed an emergency response</a>, there is little indication that Russia has either the capacity or inclination to assist in the humanitarian effort.</p>
<p>Thousands are expected to have to leave their homes as waters flood dozens of villages. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has already called on the international community to offer <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/nova-kakhovka-dam-collapse-flood-first-flooding-deaths-reported-ukraine">immediate aid</a>. </p>
<p>Kyiv and Moscow have both accused each other of bombing <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65839574">people being evacuated</a>.</p>
<p>The circumstances surrounding the destruction of the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65818705">dam on the Dnipro River</a> remain difficult to determine. But the incident is being discussed as a possible <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/western-leaders-russia-war-crime-nova-kakhovka-ukraine-dam/">war crime and an act of terror</a>, with Russia indicated as the likely perpetrator. </p>
<p>While it will be some time before all the details are clear, the event is certainly going to influence events on the battlefield.</p>
<p>An attack of this nature can form part of a military strategy. After all, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/11/ukraine-hero-irpin-river-helped-save-kyiv-but-what-now-for-its-newly-restored-wetlands-aoe">destruction of Irpin dam</a> in February 2022 played an important role in checking Russian advances earlier in the conflict. </p>
<p>In this case, however, the relatively modest military benefit in no way justifies the massive and far-reaching destruction unleashed by the floodwaters.</p>
<p>The rising water levels caused by the damage will, of course, have some implications for the campaign. Downstream any <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3921ff58-9d38-42a4-9ad9-5540ba5b5450">crossing of the river</a> will become difficult for the foreseeable future, with the surging waters damaging any remaining infrastructure. </p>
<p>The flooded ground may struggle to bear the weight of tanks and artillery as well, limiting the potential routes south for an attacking force. The scale of the disaster introduces many human factors to the battlefield, with <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15310.doc.htm">displaced civilians</a> further complicating any operations in the region. </p>
<p>The result is that a significant portion of the frontline is now difficult to access, leaving Russia with less space to actively defend.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DSH7yTe8SgA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Massive flooding caused by the dam bursting.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While these are significant considerations and will complicate the nature of the battlefield from the Ukrainian perspective, the fundamental balance of power in the region remains unchanged. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their adaptability <a href="https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf#page=66">from the outset in this conflict</a>, and this will serve them well in the next phases. </p>
<p>Having taken the time to integrate the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-war-ukraines-hidden-advantage">training and equipment</a> received from western partners, the forces compromising the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be able to effectively adapt to events of this nature.</p>
<p>Current operations show that Ukrainian land forces are effectively <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/06/at-the-bleeding-edge-of-ukraines-counteroffensive-the-ukrainian-marine-corps-has-worked-out-new-infantry-tactics/?ss=aerospace-defense&sh=7f44009d316e">probing for Russian weaknesses </a> in the south and east. These smaller advances – so called <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/battleground-ukraine/id1617276298">shaping operations</a> – which provide intelligence and fix Russian forces in place, are taking place across a wide front. </p>
<p>Ukrainian leadership remain quiet on specifics, but when its more <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjJj-Visjok">heavily equipped brigades</a> do move forward, they will benefit from these earlier efforts to shape the battlefield in their favour.</p>
<h2>Russian troops overstretched</h2>
<p>The Nova Kakhovka dam’s breach will do nothing to improve the status of Russian forces. While in the short term, there is now perhaps less frontline to defend, their troops <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/17/british-missiles-destroy-vladimir-putins-supply-lines/">are still overstretched</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/moscow-sees-growing-split-power-amid-putins-war-ex-russian-commander-1772060">fractured Russian leadership</a> will struggle to effectively respond to any setbacks, and the equipment and human resources they currently have available remain of poor quality. If Nova Kakhovka was an attempt to replicate earlier events, in which Ukraine <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-moshchun-irpin-kyiv-war-battle/32286263.html">submerged the Irpin floodplain</a> to interfere with the Russian advance to Kyiv, then it has not been successful.</p>
<p>If it was the eve of a Russian offensive, an event of this nature might have been disastrous for them, with their rigid command structures and traumatised land forces incapable of adapting on the fly. This is not Russia’s moment, however. </p>
<p>For the Ukrainian side, this is a setback that can be overcome. As well as growing disparities in training and equipment, the incident highlights the profound difference in the mindset and ability to adapt between the respective sides.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, we may see more attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure as the offensive presses on. The Russian state clearly prefers to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/russias-systematic-attacks-on-ukrainian-civilian-infrastructure-are-unacceptable-and-must-end">break what it cannot control</a>. </p>
<p>While attacks on civilian infrastructure may have little impact on how the conflict plays out, the Russian strategy is now about inflicting pain on the Ukrainian side by any available means. This could indicate that Moscow no longer views these areas as future Russian assets that can be assimilated relatively intact, but instead as areas it can devastate to harm the interests of the rightful owner.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Morris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ground flooded by the Nova Kakhovka dam’s destruction may struggle to bear the weight of tanks and artillery.Christopher Morris, Teaching Fellow, School of Strategy, Marketing and Innovation, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071822023-06-06T19:30:30Z2023-06-06T19:30:30ZKakhovka dam breach: 3 essential reads on what it means for Ukraine’s infrastructure, beleaguered nuclear plant and future war plans<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530429/original/file-20230606-18-ylhg3b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C21%2C2834%2C1517&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The breach of the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine could have lasting ecological and health impacts.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RussiaUkraineWar/e19fad339d4a403e863ca5ffd2ebe420/photo?Query=Kakhovka%20dam&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=49&currentItemNo=27">Ukrainian Presidential Office via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A dam that supplies drinking water to thousands of Ukrainians as well as cooling water for reactors at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station <a href="https://apnews.com/article/kakhovka-dam-ukraine-russia-war-whats-at-stake-a417dafefa79462bef5e4e63c0a94c8c">was ruptured on June 6, 2023</a>.</p>
<p>Kyiv blamed the destruction on Moscow, with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/06/world/russia-ukraine-news">President Volodymyr Zelenskyy slamming “Russian terrorists</a>” for destroying the Kakhovka dam and the adjacent hydroelectric power station on the Dnieper River. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/6/ukraine-says-russian-forces-blew-up-nova-kakhovka-dam-in-kherson">Kremlin accused Ukraine of “deliberate sabotage</a>,” noting that the reservoir is a crucial resource for the people of Crimea, a Ukrainian region <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/crimea-six-years-after-illegal-annexation/">illegally annexed by Russia</a> in 2014.</p>
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<p>Either way, the destruction of the dam is a worrying development. It has the potential for lasting ecological damage and harm to human health in a country already ravaged by more than a year of warfare. It also evokes concerns flagged by The Conversation’s authors in past articles looking at how the conflict has put infrastructure and nuclear power on the front lines. </p>
<h2>1) Risk of nuclear accidents</h2>
<p>This isn’t the first time during the Ukraine war that concerns have been raised over the fate of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station. The plant is the largest nuclear facility in Europe. But ongoing fighting has put it in a uniquely vulnerable position.</p>
<p>In an interview back in August 2022 after the plant was damaged by shelling, <a href="https://viterbi.usc.edu/directory/faculty/Meshkati/Najmedin">Najmedin Meshkati</a>, a nuclear safety expert at the University of Southern California, <a href="https://theconversation.com/un-nuclear-agency-calls-for-protection-zone-around-imperiled-ukrainian-power-plant-a-safety-expert-explains-why-that-could-be-crucial-189429">laid out the concerns</a>, including a worst-case scenario in which a missile damages the nuclear reactor, releasing radiation into the atmosphere. “It could be another Chernobyl,” he said.</p>
<p>More pertinent to the destruction of the dam is the potential disruption to the flow of cooling water. </p>
<p>As Meshkati pointed out in August 2022: “Even if you shut down the reactors, the plant will need off-site power to run the huge cooling system to remove the residual heat in the reactor and bring it to what is called a cold shutdown. Water circulation is always needed to make sure the spent fuel doesn’t overheat. Spent fuel pools also need constant water circulation to keep them cool, and they need cooling for several years before they can be put in dry casks.”</p>
<p>The International Atomic Energy Agency has said in the aftermath of the dam rupture that there are <a href="https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/IAEA-No-immediate-risk-to-Zaporizhzhia-from-dam-da?feed=feed">no immediate risks</a> to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station. It noted that five of the six reactors there have already been put in cold shutdown, which require relatively little water. The sixth reactor is cooled with water from a nearby pond. The danger would be if the pond became depleted.</p>
<p>These concerns may prompt renewed calls for a demilitarized zone to be set up around the nuclear plant. </p>
<p>“War,” Meshkati noted, “is the worst enemy of nuclear safety.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/un-nuclear-agency-calls-for-protection-zone-around-imperiled-ukrainian-power-plant-a-safety-expert-explains-why-that-could-be-crucial-189429">UN nuclear agency calls for protection zone around imperiled Ukrainian power plant – a safety expert explains why that could be crucial</a>
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<h2>2. Risk to civilian infrastructure</h2>
<p>Russia has denied causing the damage to the dam. But in October 2022, <a href="https://www.american.edu/sis/faculty/jensen.cfm">Benjamin Jensen</a>, a defense strategist at American University’s School of International Service, was <a href="https://theconversation.com/crippling-civilian-infrastructure-has-long-been-part-of-russian-generals-playbook-putin-is-merely-expanding-that-approach-192226">warning of the danger of increased targeting of civilian infrastructure</a> as the war progressed.</p>
<p>In response to setbacks on the battlefield, “Russia has increased its attacks in Ukraine on everything from power plants and dams to railways, pipelines and ports,” he noted, adding, “These attacks against civilian infrastructure are not random. Rather, they reflect an insidious calculus integral to modern Russian military theory. For more than 20 years, Russian military journals have emphasized the need to conduct noncontact warfare and target critical infrastructure.”</p>
<p>It forms part of a “coercive strategy” by which Russia attempts to manipulate the enemy through a mix of political, economic and military pressure.</p>
<p>After it became apparent that Russia’s initial war plan was sufficiently countered by Western-backed Ukrainian resistance, Moscow upped its attacks on infrastructure in line with this coercive strategy.</p>
<p>“While military campaigns historically target transportation infrastructure, Russia went further. In response to the ongoing counteroffensive – which has seen Ukrainian forces retake formerly Russian occupied land in the east and south of the country – coercive measures by Russia have escalated to include targeting major dams. In mid-September 2022, Russia tried to destroy the dam outside of Kryvyi Rih, a city of half a million people,” wrote Jensen.</p>
<p>If the Ukrainian interpretation of what happened at the Kakhovka dam is accepted, this time, Russia succeeded.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/crippling-civilian-infrastructure-has-long-been-part-of-russian-generals-playbook-putin-is-merely-expanding-that-approach-192226">Crippling civilian infrastructure has long been part of Russian generals' playbook – Putin is merely expanding that approach</a>
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<h2>3. Risk to Ukraine’s war plans</h2>
<p>Regardless of who is to blame over the dam’s rupture, the incident will affect the war. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/staff/profiles/gov/wolff-stefan.aspx">Stefan Wolff</a> and <a href="https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/staff/profiles/gov/dunn-david.aspx#staffdetails">David Hastings Dunn</a>, from the University of Birmingham in the U.K., <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-we-know-about-the-nova-kakhovka-dam-and-who-gains-from-its-destruction-207130">noted the timing of the destruction</a>: just as Ukraine seemed poised to launch a major counteroffensive.</p>
<p>“The enormous flood that it has triggered is likely to devastate vast areas on both banks of the Dnieper south toward Crimea. This will make offensive operations by Ukrainian ground forces in this area difficult, probably for months to come, and without similarly weakening Russian defensive lines,” they wrote, adding: “Moreover, it will also make it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to advance further toward Crimea, the peninsula that Russia has illegally occupied since 2014.” </p>
<p>If this was the intended purpose then it would mark “a new phase in this war,” Wolff and Hastings Dunn wrote. “It demonstrates Moscow’s effort to control the narrative as to who is responsible for the most heinous acts in the conflict after many months of negative coverage of the Russian conduct of the war.” And in sacrificing hydroelectric power and drinking water to Crimea, the move would suggest “a callous disregard for the inhabitants [of Crimea], many of them ethnic Russians.”</p>
<p>“Despite the Kremlin’s rhetoric, what this episode suggests is that Russia is less interested in liberating Ukraine from its present leadership than it is in destroying its ability to function as a sovereign nation,” Wolff and Hastings Dunn wrote.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-we-know-about-the-nova-kakhovka-dam-and-who-gains-from-its-destruction-207130">Ukraine war: what we know about the Nova Kakhovka dam and who gains from its destruction</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207182/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for the attack on crucial civilian infrastructure. Experts explain what the incident means for future war plans, and for the safety of the affected region.Matt Williams, Senior International EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2044932023-05-08T14:29:00Z2023-05-08T14:29:00ZFlooding in Nigeria is on the rise – good forecasts, drains and risk maps are urgently needed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524186/original/file-20230503-20-dq7shi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C0%2C4905%2C3268&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Forecasting, risk plans and effective drainage systems can mitigate the impact of severe floods.
Photo by Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/tanker-truck-falls-across-the-east-west-highway-severed-by-news-photo/1244127776?adppopup=true">Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigeria is one of the most flood-prone countries in west Africa. Many areas experience annual flooding. This happens during heavy rainfall and one of the reasons is poor drainage systems. </p>
<p>The country therefore needs to make improvements. As researchers who have specialised in meteorology for about two decades we believe there are several ways it can do this. The key interventions needed are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>understanding the impact of climate change on rainfall extremes and water resources</p></li>
<li><p>investing in a functional weather forecast system </p></li>
<li><p>addressing the problem of poor drainage.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These actions are necessary to build resilience to floods. </p>
<p>The Nigeria Meteorological Agency and the <a href="https://nihsa.gov.ng/">Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency</a> have predicted severe flooding this year. And recent devastating flooding incidents are still fresh in the minds of Nigerians.</p>
<h2>Flooding in Nigeria</h2>
<p>Flash floods are considered the <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/world-meteorological-day/previous-world-meteorological-days/climate-and-water/floods#:%7E:text=Flash%20floods%20account%20for%20approximately,than%205%2C000%20lives%20lost%20annually">deadliest hazards related to extreme weather</a>. Nigeria is increasingly prone to them. </p>
<p>There are many predictors of floods, chief of which is increasingly heavy rains over the west African Sahel. </p>
<p>In recent decades parts of Nigeria have experienced <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/10/1084">summer rainfall extremes</a> that are more intense than before. Even dry regions like the Lake Chad River basin have begun to have record rainfalls. Downpours have submerged land areas, overrun watersheds and threatened the carrying capacity of water reservoirs. </p>
<p>This is expected to get worse as a result of global warming, according to <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-exacerbated-heavy-rainfall-leading-to-large-scale-flooding-in-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-west-africa/#:%7E:text=Several%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of,as%20causes%20for%20the%20devastation">a recent scientific study</a> by the World Weather Attribution scientific team.</p>
<p>The atmospheric rivers linked to the recent heavy rainfall over the region are associated with a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14966">warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean</a>. The warming is connected with sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean, described as Trans-Atlantic-Pacific Ocean Dipole. </p>
<p>Studies have also shown that <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/oceans/el-nino">La Niña events</a>, periodically cool ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. The cooling is coupled with changes in winds and pressure that cause increased rainfall over the west African Sahel. More disturbing is the rare “<a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/triple-dip-la-ni%C3%B1a-persists-prolonging-drought-and-flooding#:%7E:text=The%20first%20%E2%80%9Ctriple%2Ddip%E2%80%9D,World%20Meteorological%20Organization%20(WMO)">triple-dip</a>” La Niña climate event. Three consecutive years of these events will trigger more rainfall than normal in some regions.</p>
<p>The second set of drivers is geographical. For example low-land and coastal areas are flood risk areas because of <a href="https://www.eumetsat.int/severe-flooding-nigeria">rising river levels</a>. Previous flood disasters have shown that these areas are disaster prone.</p>
<p>Thirdly, flooding in Nigeria is made worse by the poor management of drainage systems. The combination of heavy rains and nonexistent or poor <a href="https://guardian.ng/sunday-magazine/poor-drainage-worsening-condition-of-lagos-roads/">drainage system</a> increases the likelihood of flash floods in cities. </p>
<p>Adding to the problem are poor waste disposal, poor urban planning, tarmacking of urban roads and construction of drainage systems without climate adaptation in mind. </p>
<h2>Building resilience against floods</h2>
<p>There’s no way to influence rainfall variability, especially in the short term. But <a href="https://www.epa.gov/green-engineering/about-green-engineering">green engineering</a> can help protect humans and the environment. </p>
<p>There are two strategies that Nigeria can easily use. They are <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-in-nigeria-building-dams-and-planting-trees-among-steps-that-should-be-taken-to-curb-the-damage-192750#:%7E:text=Examples%20include%20the%20construction%20of,the%20major%20rivers%20in%20Nigeria">proper dam management and tree planting</a>. These initiatives will reduce the speed of water flow and reduce the impact of floods. </p>
<p>Another easy intervention is the process of risk mapping, assessment and planning for floods. This informs how resources should be distributed and how to reduce risk. It has been successful in countries such as <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/water/flood-hazard-and-risk-maps-key-instrument-flood-risk-management">Romania and Bulgaria</a>. </p>
<p>Then there is forecasting. It is a complex process that is continually being improved as artificial intelligence and machine learning are incorporated into the prediction technologies. Capacity building is required to improve the reliability of forecasting in the country.</p>
<p>Both the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency and the Nigerian Meteorology Agency provide timely precipitation forecasts for water-related disaster management. The <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en">World Meteorological Organisation</a> has supported forecasting services in west Africa through its <a href="https://community.wmo.int/en/swfp-west-africa">Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project</a>. The project would be more beneficial if it operated in all meteorological centres across the country.</p>
<p>For weather forecasting to deliver quality data, there is a need to continuously invest in equipment and review performance. For instance, the <a href="https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/nigeriasat-2#eop-quick-facts-section">NigeriaSat-2</a> was built to provide high-resolution imagery of the Earth’s surface but it’s past its design life.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/one-of-nigerias-satellites-is-on-its-last-legs-why-this-is-worrying-165068">One of Nigeria's satellites is on its last legs: why this is worrying</a>
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<p>Drainage systems can be developed and improved by channels or ditches, and piping that directs excess rainwater and sewage to a point of disposal. <a href="https://www.local.gov.uk/topics/severe-weather/flooding/sustainable-drainage-systems">Sustainable urban drainage systems</a> are becoming common given their multiple benefits such as reducing the effects of pollution. </p>
<p>Lastly, financing has stood out as a challenge. Nigeria’s government needs to make good use of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/establishing-a-dedicated-fund-for-loss-and-damage">climate change loss and damage fund</a> that was established at the <a href="https://unfccc.int/event/cop-27">COP27</a> meeting. Access to the funding depends on having systems for <a href="https://www.undp.org/blog/what-new-loss-and-damage-fund-needs-success">data collection, recording and reporting</a> of loss and damage finance needs.</p>
<h2>Avoiding a repeat of disaster</h2>
<p>Past floods are still fresh in people’s minds. In 2012, the destructive <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigeria-floods-4-ways-they-affect-food-security-193354">effect</a> of the excess water released from the Lagdo Reservoir in northern Cameroon and torrential summer rainfall killed 400 people, displaced millions of others, and destroyed over 152,575 hectares of farmland in Nigeria. The <a href="https://nema.gov.ng/">Nigerian Emergency Management Agency)</a> estimated a total economic loss to be about <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/november-2021/dogged-massive-floods-nigeria-ramps-actions-tackle-climate-crisis">US$16.9 billion</a>. </p>
<p>In 2022, the flooding <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/nigeria-floods-response-flash-update-2-last-updated-1-november-2022">caused over 600 deaths and affecting an estimated 3.2 million people</a> across 34 of the country’s 36 states. The floods destroyed over 569,251 hectares of farmland.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-floods-are-the-worst-in-a-decade-heres-how-people-try-to-cope-with-the-devastation-192781">Nigeria's floods are the worst in a decade. Here's how people try to cope with the devastation</a>
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<p>As the 2023 flooding approaches, it is important for federal government and state agencies to work in coordination, following the seasonal climate forecast updates issued by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. As a matter of urgency, states should set up local disaster management committees to assist in creating awareness and relocating communities living in flood-prone areas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204493/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nigeria is expected to experience severe flooding this year. With proper planning and management its impact may not be so devastating.Victor Ongoma, Assistant Professor, Université Mohammed VI PolytechniqueVictor Nnamdi Dike, Associate professor, Chinese Academy of SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2036512023-04-13T12:26:51Z2023-04-13T12:26:51ZThe Colorado River drought crisis: 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520603/original/file-20230412-18-qqa033.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3484%2C2001&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sprinklers water a lettuce field in Holtville, California with Colorado River water. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-aerial-view-shows-sprinklers-watering-a-lettuce-field-news-photo/1248577888">Sandy Huffaker/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A 23-year western drought has drastically shrunk the Colorado River, which provides <a href="https://www.usbr.gov/climate/secure/docs/2016secure/factsheet/ColoradoRiverBasinFactSheet.pdf">water for drinking and irrigation</a> for Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, California and two states in Mexico. Under a <a href="https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/pao/pdfiles/crcompct.pdf">1922 compact</a>, these jurisdictions receive fixed allocations of water from the river – but now there’s not enough water to provide them.</p>
<p>As states try to negotiate ways to share the decreasing flow, the U.S. Department of the Interior is considering <a href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/interior-department-announces-next-steps-protect-stability-and-sustainability-colorado">cuts of up to 25%</a> in allotments for California, Nevada and Arizona. The federal government can regulate these states’ water shares because they come mainly from <a href="https://www.nps.gov/lake/learn/nature/overview-of-lake-mead.htm">Lake Mead</a>, the largest U.S. reservoir, which was created when the Hoover Dam was built on the Colorado River near Las Vegas. </p>
<p>These five articles from The Conversation’s archive explain what’s happening and what’s at stake in the Colorado River basin’s drought crisis. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people and some of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S., but its flow is dwindling.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>1. A faulty river compact</h2>
<p>The idea of negotiating a legally binding agreement to share river water among states was innovative in the 1920s. But the Colorado River Compact made some critical assumptions that have proved to be fatal flaws. </p>
<p>The lawyers who wrote the compact knew that the Colorado’s flow could vary and that they didn’t have enough data for long-term planning. But they still allocated fixed quantities of water to each participating state. “We know now that they <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-river-compacts-were-innovative-in-the-1920s-but-couldnt-foresee-todays-water-challenges-175121">used optimistic flow numbers</a> measured during a particularly wet period,” wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=LQcyNSwAAAAJ&hl=en">Patricia J. Rettig</a>, head archivist of Colorado State University’s <a href="https://lib.colostate.edu/find/archives-special-collections/collections/water-resources-archive/">Water Resources Archive</a>.</p>
<p>Nor did the compact encourage conservation as the West’s population grew. “When settlers developed the West, their prevailing attitude was that water reaching the sea was wasted, so people aimed to use it all,” Rettig observed. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-river-compacts-were-innovative-in-the-1920s-but-couldnt-foresee-todays-water-challenges-175121">Western river compacts were innovative in the 1920s but couldn't foresee today's water challenges</a>
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<h2>2. Temporary cuts aren’t big enough</h2>
<p>Western states have known for years that they were taking more water from the Colorado than nature was putting in. But reducing water use is politically charged, since it means imposing limits on such powerful constituencies as farmers and developers. </p>
<p>In 2019, officials from the U.S. government and the seven Colorado Basin states signed a seven-year drought contingency plan that temporarily reduced states’ water allocations. But the plan did not propose long-term strategies for addressing climate change or overuse of water in the region. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1645868976881164289"}"></div></p>
<p>“Since 2000, Colorado River flows have been 16% below the 20th-century average,” wrote water policy experts <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Brad-Udall">Brad Udall</a>, <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/program/hydrosciences/douglas-kenney#">Douglas Kenney</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hVCNqZUAAAAJ&hl=en">John Fleck</a>. “Temperatures across the Colorado River Basin are now over 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 20th-century average, and are certain to continue rising. Scientists have begun using the term ‘aridification’ to describe <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-states-buy-time-with-a-7-year-colorado-river-drought-plan-but-face-a-hotter-drier-future-119448">the hotter, drier climate in the basin</a>, rather than ‘drought,’ which implies a temporary condition.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/western-states-buy-time-with-a-7-year-colorado-river-drought-plan-but-face-a-hotter-drier-future-119448">Western states buy time with a 7-year Colorado River drought plan, but face a hotter, drier future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>3. The looming threat of dead pool</h2>
<p>Lake Mead and <a href="https://www.usbr.gov/projects/index.php?id=144">Lake Powell</a>, the other major reservoir on the lower Colorado River, were created to provide water for irrigation and to generate hydropower, which is produced by the force of water flowing through large turbines in the lakes’ dams. If water in either lake drops below the intakes for the turbines, the lake will fall below “minimum power pool” and stop producing electricity. </p>
<p>If water in the lakes dropped even further, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-dead-pool-a-water-expert-explains-182495">they could reach “dead pool</a>,” the point at which water is too low to flow through the dam. This is an extreme scenario, but it can’t be ruled out, University of Arizona water expert <a href="https://robertglennon.net/">Robert Glennon</a> warned. In addition to drought and climate change, he noted, both lakes lie in canyons that “are V-shaped, like martini glasses – wide at the rim and narrow at the bottom. As levels in the lakes decline, each foot of elevation holds less water.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-dead-pool-a-water-expert-explains-182495">What is dead pool? A water expert explains</a>
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</em>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520605/original/file-20230412-16-e0mhui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Infographic of Hoover Dam and water levels where power general and then water flow would stop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520605/original/file-20230412-16-e0mhui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520605/original/file-20230412-16-e0mhui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520605/original/file-20230412-16-e0mhui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520605/original/file-20230412-16-e0mhui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520605/original/file-20230412-16-e0mhui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520605/original/file-20230412-16-e0mhui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520605/original/file-20230412-16-e0mhui.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This graphic shows the water level in Lake Powell as of November 2022 and the levels that represent minimum power pool and dead pool.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://new.azwater.gov/news/articles/2022-03-11">Arizona Department of Water Resources</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Why hydropower matters</h2>
<p>Climate change and drought are <a href="https://theconversation.com/hydropowers-future-is-clouded-by-droughts-floods-and-climate-change-its-also-essential-to-the-us-electric-grid-182314">stressing hydropower generation</a> throughout the U.S. West by reducing snowpack and precipitation and drying up rivers. This could create serious stress for regional electric grid operators, according to Penn State civil engineers <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HoSryoQAAAAJ&hl=en">Caitlin Grady</a> and <a href="https://blogs.gwu.edu/caitlin-grady/team/">Lauren Dennis</a>. </p>
<p>“Because it can quickly be turned on and off, hydroelectric power can help control minute-to-minute supply and demand changes,” they wrote. “It can also help power grids quickly bounce back when blackouts occur. Hydropower makes up about 40% of U.S. electric grid facilities that can be started without an additional power supply during a blackout, in part because the fuel needed to generate power is simply the water held in the reservoir behind the turbine.”</p>
<p>While most hydropower dams are likely here to stay, in Grady’s and Dennis’ view, “climate change will change how these plants are used and managed.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hydropowers-future-is-clouded-by-droughts-floods-and-climate-change-its-also-essential-to-the-us-electric-grid-182314">Hydropower's future is clouded by droughts, floods and climate change – it's also essential to the US electric grid</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<h2>5. The resurrection of Glen Canyon</h2>
<p>Lake Powell was created by flooding Glen Canyon, a spectacular swath of canyons on the Utah-Arizona border. As the lake’s water level drops, many side canyons have reemerged. Effectively, climate change is draining the lake.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ftYToS4Gk_s?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A boat trip into zones of Glen Canyon that have been uncovered as water levels drop.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to recover a unique landscape, wrote University of Utah political scientist <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel-Mccool">Dan McCool</a>. “But <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-climate-change-and-overuse-shrink-lake-powell-the-emergent-landscape-is-coming-back-to-life-and-posing-new-challenges-197340">managing this emergent landscape</a> also presents serious political and environmental challenges.” </p>
<p>In McCool’s view, a key priority should be to give Native American tribes a meaningful role in managing those lands – including cultural sites and artifacts that were flooded when the river was dammed. The river has also deposited massive quantities of sediments in the canyon behind the dam, some of which are contaminated. And as visitors flock to newly accessible side canyons, the area will need staff to manage visitors and protect fragile resources.</p>
<p>“Other landscapes are likely to emerge across the West as climate change reshapes the region and numerous reservoirs decline. With proper planning, Glen Canyon can provide a lesson in how to manage them,” McCool observed.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-climate-change-and-overuse-shrink-lake-powell-the-emergent-landscape-is-coming-back-to-life-and-posing-new-challenges-197340">As climate change and overuse shrink Lake Powell, the emergent landscape is coming back to life – and posing new challenges</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203651/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Two decades of drought have reduced the river’s flow by one-third compared to historical averages. The Biden administration is considering mandatory cuts to some states’ water allocations.Jennifer Weeks, Senior Environment + Cities Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002142023-04-04T12:16:46Z2023-04-04T12:16:46ZHow much is the world’s most productive river worth? Here’s how experts estimate the value of nature<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519125/original/file-20230403-22-i7bnbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5520%2C3668&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Establishing the financial worth of a river's fish is complicated when many people don't sell the fish they catch.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-photo-taken-on-january-5-2018-shows-women-removing-news-photo/902376180">Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Southeast Asia’s Mekong may be the most important river in the world. Known as the “mother of waters,” it is home to the world’s largest inland fishery, and the huge amounts of sediments it transports feed some of the planet’s most fertile farmlands. Tens of millions of people depend on it for their livelihoods.</p>
<p>But how valuable is it in monetary terms? Is it possible to put a dollar value on the multitude of ecosystem services it provides, to help keep those services healthy into the future?</p>
<p>That’s what my research colleagues and I are <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/cambodia/fact-sheets/wonders-mekong">trying to figure out</a>, <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/cambodia/fact-sheets/wonders-mekong">focusing on</a> two countries that hold <a href="https://wwfasia.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/key_findings_mekong_river_in_the_economy.pdf">the river’s most productive areas</a> for fishing and farming: Cambodia and Vietnam.</p>
<p>Understanding the value of a river is essential for good management and decision-making, such as where to develop infrastructure and where to protect nature. This is particularly <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/mekong-river-cambodia-recovery">true of the Mekong</a>, which has <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/trouble-mekong">come under enormous pressure</a> in recent years from overfishing, dam building and climate change, and where decisions about development projects often do not take environmental costs into account.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A brown river winds through a steep cliffs with a road and some buildings along the banks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519126/original/file-20230403-28-5xowi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Mekong River winds through six countries, across 2,700 miles (about 4,350 kilometers) from the mountains to the sea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/downstream-from-the-controversial-gongguoqiao-dam-on-the-news-photo/479183194">Leisa Tyler/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Rivers such as the Mekong function as life-support systems for entire regions,” said Rafael Schmitt, lead scientist at the Natural Capital Project at Stanford University, who has studied the Mekong system for many years. “Understanding their values, in monetary terms, can be critical to fairly judge the impacts that infrastructure development will have on these functions.”</p>
<p>Calculating that value isn’t simple, though. Most of the natural benefits that a river brings are, naturally, under water, and thus hidden from direct observation. Ecosystem services may be hard to track because rivers often flow over large distances and sometimes across national borders.</p>
<h2>Enter natural capital accounting</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbd.int/business/projects/natcap.shtml">theory of natural capital</a> suggests that ecosystem services provided by nature – such as water filtration, flood control and raw materials – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5478.395">have economic value</a> that should be taken into account when making decisions that affect these systems.</p>
<p>Some people <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/15/price-natural-world-destruction-natural-capital">argue that it’s morally wrong</a> to put a financial price on nature, and that doing so undermines people’s intrinsic motivation to value and protect nature. Critics say valuations <a href="https://neweconomics.org/2020/01/can-a-natural-capital-approach-restore-nature-in-the-uk">often do not capture</a> the <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/6569122-Pelenc-Weak%20Sustainability%20versus%20Strong%20Sustainability.pdf">whole worth of a natural service</a>.</p>
<p>Proponents maintain that natural capital accounting puts a spotlight on <a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-nature-will-give-governments-and-businesses-more-reasons-to-protect-it-153968">natural systems’ value</a> when weighed against commercial pressures. They say it brings visibility to natural benefits that are <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/case-natural-capital-accounting">otherwise hidden</a>, using language that policymakers can better understand and utilize. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people in a motor boat move through a section of lake with trees and small islands of vegetation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519127/original/file-20230403-18-8kpwds.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More than a million people live on or around Tonle Sap lake, the world’s largest inland fishery. Climate change and dams can affect its water level and fish stocks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-photo-taken-on-october-13-2020-shows-a-boat-driving-news-photo/1230240288">Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several countries have incorporated natural capital accounting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.09.008">in recent years</a>, including <a href="https://www.wavespartnership.org/en/knowledge-center/natural-capital-accounting-and-policy-costa-rica">Costa Rica</a>, <a href="https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=5114">Canada</a> and Botswana. Often, that has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/interactive/2021/gretchen-daily-natural-capital-environment/">led to better protection</a> of natural resources, such as mangrove forests that protect fragile coastlines. The U.S. government also <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2023/01/19/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-releases-national-strategy-to-put-nature-on-the-nations-balance-sheet/">announced a strategy</a> in 2023 to start developing metrics to account for the value of underlying natural assets, such as critical minerals, forests and rivers.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://seea.un.org/news/new-business-and-natural-capital-accounting-case-studies-released">natural capital studies</a> have largely focused on terrestrial ecosystems, where the trade-offs between human interventions and conservation are easier to see. </p>
<p>When valuing rivers, the challenges run much deeper. “If you cut down a forest, the impact is directly visible,” Schmitt points out. “A river might look pristine, but its functioning may be profoundly altered by a faraway dam.”</p>
<h2>Accounting for hydropower</h2>
<p>Hydropower provides one example of the challenges in making decisions about a river without understanding its full value. It’s often much easier to <a href="https://www.omnicalculator.com/ecology/hydroelectric-power">calculate the value of a hydropower dam</a> than the value of the river’s fish, or sediment that eventually becomes fertile farmland.</p>
<p>The rivers of the Mekong Basin have been widely exploited for power production in recent decades, with a proliferation of dams in China, Laos and elsewhere. The <a href="https://monitor.mekongwater.org/virtual-gauges/?v=1642195188734">Mekong Dam Monitor</a>, run by the nonprofit <a href="https://www.stimson.org/project/mekong-dam-monitor/">Stimson Center</a>, monitors dams and their environmental impacts in the Mekong Basin in near-real time.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Map showing the river through Vietnam and Cambodia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=718&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518678/original/file-20230331-26-r2tgxq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The lower Mekong River.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/lower-mekong-river-basin-0">USGS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While hydropower is <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/water/benefits-hydropower">clearly an economic benefit</a> – powering homes and businesses, and contributing to a country’s GDP – dams also <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/is-building-more-dams-the-way-to-save-rivers">alter river flows</a> and block both fish migration and sediment delivery.</p>
<p>Droughts in the Mekong in recent years, <a href="https://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/">linked to El Niño</a> and exacerbated by climate change, were made worse by dam operators holding back water. That caused water levels to drop to historical low levels, with devastating consequences for fisheries. In the Tonlé Sap Lake, Southeast Asia’s largest lake and the heart of the Mekong fishery, thousands of fishers were <a href="https://www.voacambodia.com/a/fishers-leave-crisis-hit-tonle-sap-lake-in-search-of-livelihoods-ashore/6695988.html">forced to abandon their occupation</a>, and many <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/mekong-river-fish-migrations">commercial fisheries</a> had to close.</p>
<figure>
<iframe frameborder="0" class="juxtapose" width="100%" height="400" src="https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=7b7e5f2e-cf6e-11ed-b5bd-6595d9b17862"></iframe>
</figure><figure><figcaption>Hydropower dams like the one in the photos above in Cambodia can disrupt a river’s natural services. The Sesan River (Tonlé San) and Srepok River are tributaries of the Mekong. Move the slider to see how the dam changed the water flow. <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/91761/a-new-reservoir-in-cambodia">NASA Earth Observatory</a></figcaption></figure>
<p>One project under scrutiny now in the Mekong Basin is a small dam being constructed on the Sekong River, a tributary, in Laos near the Cambodian border. While the dam is expected to generate a very small amount of electricity, <a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/viet-nam/202205/sekong-a-dam-lao-pdr-and-mekong-delta-a-moment-decision-viet-nam">preliminary studies show</a> it will have a dramatically negative impact on many migratory fish populations in the Sekong, which remains the last major free-flowing tributary in the Mekong River Basin.</p>
<h2>Valuing the ‘lifeblood of the region’</h2>
<p>The Mekong River originates in the Tibetan highlands and runs for 2,700 miles (about 4,350 kilometers) through six countries before emptying into the South China Sea.</p>
<p>Its <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/cambodia/fact-sheets/wonders-mekong">ecological and biological riches</a> are clearly considerable. The river system is home to over 1,000 species of fish, and the annual fish catch in just the lower basin, below China, is estimated at more than <a href="https://www.mrcmekong.org/our-work/topics/fisheries/">2 million metric tons</a>. </p>
<p>“The river has been the lifeblood of the region for centuries,” says Zeb Hogan, a biologist at the University of Nevada, Reno, who leads the USAID-funded <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/cambodia/fact-sheets/wonders-mekong">Wonders of the Mekong</a> research project, which I work on. “It is the ultimate renewable resource – if it is allowed to function properly.”</p>
<p>Establishing the financial worth of fish is more complicated than it appears, though. Many people in the Mekong region are <a href="https://www.theforgottenintl.org/in-the-world-today/subsistence-fishing/">subsistence fishers</a> for whom fish have little to no market value but are crucial to their survival.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two women row a small boat in through a narrow channel in the Mekong Delta. Another boat is passing them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519129/original/file-20230403-14-qk2mdy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is essential to transportation, food and culture.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-on-a-rowing-boat-on-mekong-river-near-my-tho-village-news-photo/849862626">Sergi Reboredo/VW PICS/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The river is also home to some of the largest freshwater fish in the world, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adb2956">giant stingray and catfish</a> and critically endangered species. “How do you value a species’ right to exist?” asks Hogan.</p>
<p>Sediment, which fertilizes floodplains and builds up the Mekong Delta, has been relatively easy to quantify, says Schmitt, the Stanford scientist. According to his analysis, the Mekong, in its natural state, delivers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2175">160 million tons of sediment each year</a>.</p>
<p>However, dams let through only <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2175">about 50 million tons</a>, while <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-world-is-facing-a-global-sand-crisis-83557">sand mining</a> in Cambodia and Vietnam extracts 90 million, meaning more sediment is blocked or removed from the river than is delivered to its natural destination. As a result, the Mekong Delta, which naturally would receive much of the sediment, has suffered <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/livelihoods/in-vietnam-mekong-delta-sand-mining-means-lost-homes-and-fortunes/">tremendous river erosion</a>, with thousands of homes being swept away.</p>
<h2>A potential ‘World Heritage Site’ designation</h2>
<p>A river’s natural services may also include <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071279">cultural and social benefits</a> that can be difficult to place monetary values on.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/cambodia-seeks-unesco-world-heritage-status-to-protect-a-mekong-biodiversity-hotspot/">new proposal</a> seeks to designate a bio-rich stretch of the Mekong River in northern Cambodia as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. If successful, such a designation may bring with it a certain amount of prestige that is hard to put in numbers.</p>
<p>The complexities of the Mekong River make our project a challenging undertaking. At the same time, it is the rich diversity of natural benefits that the Mekong provides that make this work important, so that future decisions can be made based on true costs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200214/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Lovgren works as a research scientist on the Wonders of the Mekong project, which is funded by USAID, at the University of Nevada, Reno.</span></em></p>Putting a dollar value on nature has staunch opponents who say it’s morally wrong, but without it, building dams and other infrastructure can run roughshod over vital ecosystems.Stefan Lovgren, Research scientist College of Science, University of Nevada, RenoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2006912023-03-22T12:38:29Z2023-03-22T12:38:29ZThe Amazon is not safe under Brazil’s new president – a roads plan could push it past its breaking point<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516477/original/file-20230320-2823-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=78%2C365%2C3071%2C1950&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fires are often set to clear land near roads in the Amazon.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/in-this-aerial-view-the-red-dust-of-the-br230-highway-known-news-photo/1166452675">Johannes Myburgh / AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Conservationists <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-cheered-new-climate-policies-after-brazil-election-2022-10-31/">breathed a sigh of relief</a> when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential election in the fall of 2022. His predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03038-3">opened large parts of the Amazon region to business</a> by crippling enforcement of environmental laws and turning <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">a blind eye to land grabbing</a>. It should come as no surprise that deforestation showed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03038-3">a sharp uptick</a>.</p>
<p>However, while Lula oversaw a more than <a href="http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/dashboard/deforestation/biomes/legal_amazon/rates">70% drop in deforestation</a> during his first run as president in the early 2000s, the rainforest’s future remains deeply uncertain. </p>
<p>That’s in part because Brazilian administrations, whether of the right or left, have all promoted an ambitious project to boost exports and the economy called the Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure of South America, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12610">or IIRSA</a>.</p>
<p>The initiative focuses on new roads, dams and industry that can threaten the region’s fragile rainforest ecosystem – and harm the world’s climate in the process.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trucks are lined up on a road bending between a burned area and trees, with a smaller road winding off to the side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516475/original/file-20230320-2896-c7n9r5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Trucks along the BR163 highway, a major transport route that has contributed to deforestation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-view-of-trucks-queueing-along-the-br163-highway-in-news-photo/1174358903">Nelson Almeida / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The problem with infrastructure in the forest</h2>
<p>At first glance, IIRSA might sound like progress. Its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.009">goal is to improve</a> Amazonia’s economy by developing its resources and establishing better access to global markets. To accomplish this, the initiative plans to rehabilitate and extend the existing highway system and build dams, ports, industrial waterways and railroads.</p>
<p>However, evidence from my research in the Amazon over the past 30 years and by other scientists shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00502.x">new roads lead to more deforestation</a>, putting extreme pressure on the rainforest. Outside of protected areas, nearly 95% of all deforestation occurs within <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.07.004">3.4 miles (5.5 kilometers) of a road</a> or less than two-thirds of a mile (1 km) from a river. </p>
<p>Deforestation <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1182108">rates fell</a> during Lula’s first presidency, primarily because Brazil <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024010">expanded its protected areas program</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.06.026">enforced environmental laws</a>. However, deforestation began to rise again during the administration of his protégé, President Dilma Rousseff. </p>
<p><iframe id="KG9l7" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KG9l7/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Both Lula and Rousseff furthered the IIRSA agenda by building dams on the Madeira River and <a href="https://theconversation.com/satellites-over-the-amazon-capture-the-choking-of-the-house-of-god-by-the-belo-monte-dam-they-can-help-find-solutions-too-182012">on the Xingu River</a>, where the Belo Monte dam diverted streamflow <a href="https://theconversation.com/satellites-over-the-amazon-capture-the-choking-of-the-house-of-god-by-the-belo-monte-dam-they-can-help-find-solutions-too-182012">vital to the survival of Indigenous communities</a>. </p>
<p>They also downsized protected areas to make way for their projects. Rousseff even <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/43964662.pdf">downsized Amazon National Park</a>, the first such park in Amazonia. In all, 181 square miles (469 square kilometers) were removed, close to 5% of the total area. The most scenic park landscape along the Tapajos River shoreline was taken to make way for dam construction. </p>
<p>Now back in office, Lula has signaled his approval of a key IIRSA project: the <a href="https://amazonasreporter.com.br/2023/02/com-articulacao-do-governador-wilson-lima-demandas-do-amazonas-sao-prioridade-no-plano-de-100-dias-do-governo-federal/">revitalization of BR-319</a>, a federal highway between Porto Velho and Manaus.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An animation shows primarily the highway in 2000 but deforestation quickly expanding off of it over the following years." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516159/original/file-20230318-6597-vvwfn5.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite images from 2000 to 2019 show how deforestation spread out from Highway BR-163 over 10 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145888/making-sense-of-amazon-deforestation-patterns">Lauren Dauphin/NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If this project is completed, it will open the central Amazon basin <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01718-y">to even more deforestation</a>.</p>
<p>I believe this should cause alarm. Research shows too much deforestation could push the forest <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2373566X.2022.2132978">over a tipping point</a> from which it can’t recover. No one knows exactly where the line is, but the vast Amazon that people picture today with its extraordinary biodiversity and dense forests would be no more. Such a catastrophe once seemed the bad dream of doomsayers, but there is mounting evidence that the forest is in trouble.</p>
<h2>The Amazonian tipping point</h2>
<p>The tropical rainforest sustains itself by <a href="https://leaf.leeds.ac.uk/news/recycle-rain-models/">recycling rain</a> to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration, which makes more moisture available. Rainfall recycling <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2340">accounts for about 50%</a> of the basin’s precipitation today.</p>
<p>Too much deforestation could leave too little rainfall recycling to sustain the forest.</p>
<p>Scientists initially estimated the tipping point would occur <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.003">once about 40%</a> of the Amazon was deforested. That estimate has slipped downward over time given the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-brazils-rainforests-the-worst-fires-are-likely-still-to-come-122840">intensification of fires</a> and the onset of <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00228">observable climate change in the basin itself</a>. Moreover, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01287-8">the forest shows diminishing resilience</a>, meaning it is less able to recover from climate extremes. Scientists have already observed widespread <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14413">shifts to more drought-tolerant tree species</a>.</p>
<p>Given the evidence, scientists have revised the tipping point to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2340">deforestation as low as 20% to 25%</a>. Even if only a fifth of the forest is lost, the remainder could quickly degrade into an ecosystem of fire-adapted grasses and shrubby trees that look nothing like the massive ones native to the rainforest. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/c4-KpR1HrNs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NASA satellite images show the expansion of deforestation as roads are built in the Amazon.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Deforestation across all the Amazonian nations now stands <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.009">at a little over 16%</a>. In my view, this is far too close for comfort, especially with the momentum of the IIRSA program.</p>
<h2>More than one tipping point?</h2>
<p>The deforestation problem isn’t the only pressure on the forest – the Amazon is also dealing with the heat and drought of global warming. </p>
<p>Evidence suggests that global climate change may be enough to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105">push large parts of the rainforest to the brink</a>. One concern is that the dry season is getting longer, a shift that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302584110">appears to be driven by global warming</a>. This affects annual precipitation by reducing the number of rainy days and makes fire more damaging by extending the season when trees can easily burn.</p>
<p>Currently, dry season lengthening is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302584110">most pronounced in the Southern Basin</a>. However, changes in the southern rainfall pattern can reduce precipitation in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41489">wettest parts of the basin to the west</a>. One estimate suggests dry season lengthening <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2021.1842711">could cause a tipping point transition by 2064</a>.</p>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>Averting Amazonia’s looming tipping point catastrophe will require effort by the global community. In the past, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1248525">Brazil has controlled deforestation</a> through its forest code and by designating protected areas. </p>
<p>To step back from the brink, Lula would have to begin enforcing the forest code again, which limits deforestation on private property. He would also have to persuade the Brazilian Congress to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">stop creating incentives for land grabs</a> – the taking of public land for private uses. </p>
<p>Although Lula would have a difficult time reclaiming already grabbed land, expanding protected areas could reduce deforestation. Obviously, downsizing Amazonia’s existing protected areas would have to stop. </p>
<p>Finally, Lula would need to revisit the IIRSA program and pursue only those projects that bring economic development without excessive deforestation. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A road with soybean fields on both sides and the edge of the dense Amazon rainforest in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516485/original/file-20230320-3119-r24sy7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The edge of a soy plantation shows the Amazon before and after deforestation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/soy-plantation-in-amazon-rainforest-near-santarem-news-photo/462376826">Ricardo Beliel/Brazil Photos/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Research I am currently working on with colleagues in the Ecuadorian Amazon focuses on a particular type of protected area, <a href="http://www.indigenousterritories.com/">the Indigenous Territory</a>. We argue that safeguarding Indigenous territorial rights provides Amazonia’s national governments with effective conservation allies. This is because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2018.1418994">Indigenous peoples want to defend their homelands</a>. Unfortunately, <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2022/08/fighting-extractive-industries-in-ecuador-qa-with-indigenous-activist-maria-espinosa/">national governments are not always supportive of Indigenous rights</a>, especially when their territories contain mineral wealth.</p>
<p>Slowing global climate change, however, will require international collaboration on an unprecedented scale. Luckily, a forum for this already exists with the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing the states and how hot spots show up along highways" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516567/original/file-20230321-20-sx6yvp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Areas with intense deforestation in 2021 largely aligned with major roadways.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://maaproject.org/2021/amazon-hotspots-2021/">Finer M, Mamani N, Spore J (2020) Amazon Deforestation Hotspots 2021. MAAP: 147</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><iframe id="p7Iuw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/p7Iuw/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The people of the Amazon</h2>
<p>The Amazon Basin is home to 35 million people, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.009">many of whom live in poverty</a>. They have every right to desire a better life, and that’s one reason that IIRSA has a great deal of local support. </p>
<p>However, while the initiative might bring short-term benefits, it also risks destroying the very resources it was intended to develop. And that could leave the region in a state of poverty that cannot be alleviated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert T. Walker receives funding from The U.S. National Science Foundation. He is affiliated with The University of Florida, Center for Latin American Studies. </span></em></p>Nearly 95% of deforestation in the Amazon occurs within 3.5 miles of a road or near a river. Brazil’s plans to ramp up exports may be on a collision course with the forest.Robert T. Walker, Professor of Latin American Studies and Geography, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1973402023-02-06T13:27:56Z2023-02-06T13:27:56ZAs climate change and overuse shrink Lake Powell, the emergent landscape is coming back to life – and posing new challenges<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507729/original/file-20230201-11157-wkkhhg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5939%2C3341&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The white 'bathtub ring' around Lake Powell, which is roughly 110 feet high, shows the former high water mark.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DroughtLakePowell/5288ffa6ba2c44f38526491d1fde4b77/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Western states haggle over <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/31/california-colorado-river-water-use-proposal">reducing water use</a> because of declining flows in the Colorado River Basin, a more hopeful drama is playing out in Glen Canyon. </p>
<p>Lake Powell, the second-largest U.S. reservoir, extends from northern Arizona into southern Utah. A critical water source for seven Colorado River Basin states, it has shrunk dramatically over the past 40 years. </p>
<p>An ongoing <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/14/1080302434/study-finds-western-megadrought-is-the-worst-in-1-200-years">22-year megadrought</a> has lowered the water level to just <a href="https://lakepowell.water-data.com/index2.php">22.6% of “full pool</a>,” and that trend is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01290-z">expected to continue</a>. Federal officials assert that there are <a href="https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/8/1/23186668/lake-powell-debate-drain-western-drought-hydropower-utah-arizona-colorado-river-lake-mead">no plans to drain Lake Powell</a>, but overuse and climate change are draining it anyway. </p>
<p>As the water drops, Glen Canyon – one of the most scenic areas in the U.S. West – is reappearing. </p>
<p>This landscape, which includes the Colorado River’s main channel and about 100 side canyons, was flooded starting in the mid-1960s with the completion of <a href="https://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/crsp/gc/">Glen Canyon Dam</a> in northern Arizona. The area’s stunning beauty and unique features have led observers to call it “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/07/1067716380/western-megadrought-climate-lake-powell-glen-canyon-reservoir">America’s lost national park</a>.” </p>
<p>Lake Powell’s decline offers an unprecedented opportunity to recover the unique landscape at Glen Canyon. But managing this emergent landscape also presents serious political and environmental challenges. In my view, government agencies should start planning for them now. </p>
<p><iframe id="2SoM3" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2SoM3/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>A tarnished jewel</h2>
<p>Glen Canyon Dam, which towers 710 feet high, was designed to create a water “bank account” for the Colorado River Basin. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation touted Lake Powell as the “<a href="https://energyhistory.yale.edu/library-item/bureau-reclamation-lake-powell-jewel-colorado-1965">Jewel of the Colorado</a>” and promised that it would be a motorboater’s paradise and an endless source of water and hydropower. </p>
<p>Lake Powell was so big that it took 17 years to fill to capacity. At full pool, it contained <a href="https://www.arizona-leisure.com/lake-powell-facts.html">27 million acre-feet of water</a> – enough to cover 27 million acres of land to a depth of one foot – and Glen Canyon Dam’s turbines could generate 1,300 megawatts of power when the reservoir was high. </p>
<p>Soon the reservoir was drawing <a href="https://irma.nps.gov/STATS/SSRSReports/Park%20Specific%20Reports/Recreation%20Visitors%20By%20Month%20(1979%20-%20Last%20Calendar%20Year)?Park=GLCA">millions of boaters and water skiers</a> every year. But starting in the late 1980s, its volume declined sharply as states drew more water from the Colorado River while climate change-induced drought reduced the river’s flow. Today the reservoir’s average volume is <a href="https://lakepowell.water-data.com/index2.php">less than 6 million acre-feet</a>.</p>
<p>Nearly every boat ramp is closed, and many of them sit far from the retreating reservoir. Hydropower production may cease as early as 2024 if the lake falls to “<a href="https://new.azwater.gov/news/articles/2022-03-11">minimum power pool</a>,” the lowest point at which the turbines can draw water. And water supplies to 40 million people are gravely endangered under current management scenarios. </p>
<p>These water supply issues have created a serious crisis in the basin, but there is also an opportunity to recover an amazing landscape. Over 100,000 acres of formerly flooded land have emerged, including world-class scenery that rivals some of the crown jewels of the U.S. national park system. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/y7jm08U38c0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">As Lake Powell recedes, it is uncovering formerly flooded land and things that past visitors left behind.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bargained away</h2>
<p>Glen Canyon made a deep impression on explorer <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Wesley-Powell">John Wesley Powell</a> when he surveyed the Colorado River starting in 1867. When Powell’s expedition <a href="https://geology.utah.gov/map-pub/survey-notes/powell-1869-river-journey/">floated through Glen Canyon in 1869</a>, he wrote: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“On the walls, and back many miles into the country, numbers of monument-shaped buttes are observed. So we have a curious ensemble of wonderful features – carved walls, royal arches, glens, alcove gulches, mounds, and monuments … past these towering monuments, past these oak-set glens, past these fern-decked alcoves, past these mural curves, we glide hour after hour.” </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507725/original/file-20230201-17231-cillry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A red rock cliff towers above trees and a small pool of water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507725/original/file-20230201-17231-cillry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507725/original/file-20230201-17231-cillry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507725/original/file-20230201-17231-cillry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507725/original/file-20230201-17231-cillry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507725/original/file-20230201-17231-cillry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507725/original/file-20230201-17231-cillry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507725/original/file-20230201-17231-cillry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This side canyon emerged in recent years as Lake Powell shrank. The white ‘bathtub ring’ on the rock wall shows past water levels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Craig McCool</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Glen Canyon remained relatively unknown until the late 1940s, when the Bureau of Reclamation <a href="https://coloradoencyclopedia.org/article/echo-park-dam-controversy">proposed several large dams</a> on the upper Colorado River for irrigation and hydropower. Environmentalists fiercely objected to one at Echo Park in <a href="https://www.nps.gov/dino/index.htm">Dinosaur National Monument</a> on the Colorado-Utah border, alarmed by the prospect of building a dam in a national monument. Their <a href="https://coloradoencyclopedia.org/article/echo-park-dam-controversy">campaign to block it</a> succeeded – but in return they accepted a dam in Glen Canyon, a decision that former Sierra Club President David Brower later called <a href="https://www.deseret.com/2000/3/15/19496225/glen-canyon-outrage-br-2-sides-air-views-on-2-sides-of-the-still-controversial-dam">his greatest regret</a>.</p>
<h2>New challenges</h2>
<p>The first goal of managing the emergent landscape in Glen Canyon should be the inclusion of tribes in a co-management role. The Colorado River and its tributaries are managed through a complex maze of laws, court cases and regulations known as the “<a href="https://www.crwua.org/law-of-the-river.html">Law of the River</a>.” In an act of stupendous injustice, the Law of the River ignored the water rights of Native Americans until <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-climate-change-parches-the-southwest-heres-a-better-way-to-share-water-from-the-shrinking-colorado-river-168723">courts stepped in</a> and required western water users to consider their rights. </p>
<p>Tribes received no water allocation in the 1922 <a href="https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/pao/pdfiles/crcompct.pdf">Colorado River Compact</a> and were ignored or trivialized in subsequent legislation. Even though modern concepts of water management emphasize including all major stakeholders, tribes were excluded from the policymaking process. </p>
<p>There are 30 tribes in the Colorado River Basin, at least 19 of which have an association with Glen Canyon. They have rights to a substantial portion of the river’s flow, and there are thousands of <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/2022/10/24/cultural-sites-are-being/">Indigenous cultural sites in the canyon</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CdBMZPjrEhq/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Another management challenge is the massive amounts of sediment that have accumulated in the canyon. “Colorado” means “colored red” in Spanish, a recognition of the silt-laden water. This silt used to build beaches in the Grand Canyon, just downstream, and created the Colorado River delta in Mexico. </p>
<p>But for the past 63 years, it has been accumulating in Lake Powell, where it now clogs some sections of the main channel and will eventually accumulate below the dam. Some of it is <a href="https://www.hcn.org/articles/pollution-a-26-000-ton-pile-of-radioactive-waste-lies-under-the-waters-and-silt-of-lake-powell">laced with toxic materials</a> from mining decades ago. As more of the canyon is exposed, it may become necessary to create an active sediment management plan, including possible mechanical removal of some materials to protect public health. </p>
<p>The creation of Lake Powell also resulted in biological invasives, including <a href="https://www.ksl.com/article/50477865/feds-fighting-back-against-invasive-fish-species-near-lake-powell">nonnative fish and quagga mussels</a>. Some of these problems will abate as the reservoir declines and a free-flowing river replaces stagnant still water. </p>
<p>On a more positive note, native plants are <a href="https://www.12news.com/article/news/local/water-wars/lake-powell-water-dry-up-causing-glen-canyon-ecosystems-wildlife-flourish/75-06cac37f-d109-4188-a6b8-d1594d205a60">recolonizing side canyons</a> as they become exposed, creating verdant canyon bottoms. Restoring natural ecosystems in the canyon will require innovative biological management strategies as the habitat changes back to a more natural landscape. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1608523484249858050"}"></div></p>
<p>Finally, as the emergent landscape expands and side canyons recover their natural scenery, Glen Canyon will become a unique tourist magnet. As the main channel reverts to a flowing river, users will no longer need an expensive boat; anyone with a kayak, canoe or raft will be able to enjoy the beauty of the canyons.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nps.gov/glca/index.htm">Glen Canyon National Recreation Area</a>, which includes over 1.25 million acres around Lake Powell, was created to cater to people in motorized boats on a flat-water surface. Its staff will need to develop new capabilities and an active visitor management plan to protect the canyon and prevent the kind of crowding that is <a href="https://theconversation.com/overcrowded-us-national-parks-need-a-reservation-system-158864">overrunning other popular national parks</a>.</p>
<p>Other landscapes are likely to emerge across the West as climate change reshapes the region and numerous reservoirs decline. With proper planning, Glen Canyon can provide a lesson in how to manage them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197340/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I know many of the people involved in the controversy regarding the future of Lake Powell and Glen Canyon.</span></em></p>Lake Powell’s existential crisis is a unique opportunity to save a treasured landscape.Daniel Craig McCool, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of UtahLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1971682023-01-06T13:32:37Z2023-01-06T13:32:37ZHow California could save up its rain to ease future droughts — instead of watching epic atmospheric river rainfall drain into the Pacific<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503361/original/file-20230105-24-8a0umi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C5472%2C3620&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Heavy rain from a series of atmospheric rivers flooded large parts of California from late December 2022 into early January 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-highway-101-flooding-in-south-san-francisco-as-news-photo/1245913492">Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>California has seen <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/01/01/san-francisco-flooding-rainfall-record/">so much rain</a> over the past few weeks that farm fields are inundated and normally dry creeks and drainage ditches have become torrents of water racing toward the ocean. Yet, most of the state <a href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230103/20230103_west_text.png">remains in drought</a>.</p>
<p>All that runoff in the middle of a drought begs the question — why can’t more rainwater be collected and stored for the long, dry spring and summer when it’s needed?</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://eps.ucsc.edu/faculty/Profiles/fac-only.php?uid=afisher">hydrogeologist</a> at the University of California at Santa Cruz, I’m interested in what can be done to collect runoff from storms like this on a large scale. There are two primary sources of large-scale water storage that could help make a dent in the drought: holding that water behind dams and putting it in the ground.</p>
<h2>Why isn’t California capturing more runoff now?</h2>
<p>When California gets storms like the <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150804/atmospheric-river-lashes-california">atmospheric rivers</a> that hit in December 2022 and January 2023, water managers around the state probably shake their heads and ask why they can’t hold on to more of that water. The reality is, it’s a complicated issue.</p>
<p>California has <a href="https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain">big dams and reservoirs</a> that can store large volumes of water, but they tend to be in the mountains. And once they’re near capacity, water has to be released to be ready for the next storm. Unless there’s another reservoir downstream, a lot of that water is going out to the ocean.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sKx-wSICxQQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A video captures flooding from record rainfall on the last weekend of 2022.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In more populated areas, one of the reasons storm water runoff isn’t automatically collected for use on a large scale is because the first runoff from roads is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00244-021-00906-3">often contaminated</a>. Flooding can also cause <a href="https://www.bio-sol.ca/blog/en/septic-system-during-heavy-rain/">septic system overflows</a>. So, that water would have to be treated.</p>
<p>You might say, well, the captured water doesn’t have to be drinking water, we could just use it on golf courses. But then you would need a place to store the water, and you would need a way to distribute it, with separate pipes and pumps, because you can’t put it in the same pipes as drinking water.</p>
<h2>Putting water in the ground</h2>
<p>There’s another option, and that’s to put it in the ground, where it could help to replenish groundwater supplies.</p>
<p>Managed recharge has been used for decades in <a href="http://www.fresnofloodcontrol.org/groundwater-recharge/">many areas</a> to actively replenish groundwater supplies. But the techniques have been gaining more attention lately as wells run dry amid the long-running drought. Local agencies have proposed more than <a href="https://resources.ca.gov/-/media/CNRA-Website/Files/Initiatives/Water-Resilience/CA-Water-Supply-Strategy.pdf">340 recharge projects</a> in California, and the state estimates those could recharge an additional 500,000 <a href="https://www.watereducation.org/general-information/whats-acre-foot">acre-feet</a> of water a year on average if all were built.</p>
<p>One method being discussed by the state Department of Water Resources and others is <a href="https://water.ca.gov/programs/all-programs/flood-mar">Flood-MAR, or flood-managed aquifer recharge</a>. During big flows in rivers, water managers could potentially divert some of that flow onto large parts of the landscape and inundate thousands of acres to recharge the aquifers below. The concept is to flood the land in winter and then farm in summer.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502983/original/file-20230103-64877-pfntf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Illustration showing different techniques with fields flooded in different ways" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502983/original/file-20230103-64877-pfntf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/502983/original/file-20230103-64877-pfntf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502983/original/file-20230103-64877-pfntf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502983/original/file-20230103-64877-pfntf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=737&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502983/original/file-20230103-64877-pfntf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502983/original/file-20230103-64877-pfntf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/502983/original/file-20230103-64877-pfntf2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=926&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood-managed aquifer recharge methods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://water.ca.gov/programs/all-programs/flood-mar">California Department of Water Resources</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Flood-MAR is promising, provided we can find people who are willing to inundate their land and can secure water rights. In addition, not every part of the landscape is prepared to take that water.</p>
<p>You could inundate 1,000 acres on a ranch, and a lot of it might stay flooded for days or weeks. Depending on how quickly that water soaks in, some crops will be OK, but other crops could be harmed. There are also concerns about creating habitat that encourages pests or risks food safety.</p>
<p>Another challenge is that most of the big river flows are in the northern part of the state, and many of the areas experiencing the <a href="https://www.ppic.org/publication/groundwater-recharge/">worst groundwater deficits</a> are in central and southern California. To get that excess water to the places that need it requires transport and distribution, which can be complex and expensive.</p>
<h2>Encouraging landowners to get involved</h2>
<p>In the Pajaro Valley, an important agricultural region at the edge of Monterey Bay, regional colleagues and I are trying <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_BtWaM3SC4">a different type of groundwater recharge project</a> where there is a lot of runoff from hill slopes during big storms.</p>
<p>The idea is to siphon off some of that runoff and divert it to infiltration basins, occupying a few acres, where the water can pool and percolate into the ground. That might be on agricultural land or open space with the right soil conditions. We look for coarse soils that make it easier for water to percolate through gaps between grains. But much of the landscape is covered or underlain by finer soils that don’t allow rapid infiltration, so careful site selection is important.</p>
<p>One program in the Pajaro Valley encourages landowners to participate in recharge projects by giving them a rebate on the fee they pay for water use through a “<a href="https://www.uctv.tv/shows/Recharge-Net-Metering-ReNeM-36130">recharge net metering</a>” mechanism.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7ZPKqqa6cas?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How recharge net metering works.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We did a cost-benefit analysis of this approach and found that even when you add in all the capital costs for construction and hauling away some soil, the costs are competitive with finding alternative supplies of water, and it is cheaper than desalination or water recycling.</p>
<h2>Is the rain enough to end the drought?</h2>
<p>It’s going to take many methods and several wet years to make up for the region’s long period of low rainfall. One storm certainly doesn’t do it, and even one wet year doesn’t do it.</p>
<p>For basins that are dependent on groundwater, the recharge process takes years. If this is the last rainstorm of this season, a month from now we could be in trouble again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197168/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Funding: U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Santa Clara Valley Water District, U.S. Geologic Survey
Affiliation: Research Network with the Public Policy Institute of California</span></em></p>Urban infrastructure was designed to take stormwater out to the ocean quickly. Now, California needs that precious water.Andrew Fisher, Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa CruzLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1926152022-12-02T01:44:42Z2022-12-02T01:44:42ZA China-backed dam in Indonesia threatens a rare great ape – and that’s just the tip of the iceberg<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498412/original/file-20221201-18-oka9d4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4272%2C2845&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> James Askew/SOCP handout</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2017, scientists <a href="https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(17)31245-9">described</a> a new species of great apes – the Tapanuli orangutan. The species, found in the Batang Toru ecosystem of North Sumatara, Indonesia was listed as <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2017/12/the-worlds-newest-great-ape-revealed-a-month-ago-is-already-nearly-extinct-iucn/">critically endangered</a> soon after.</p>
<p>The population of the species has declined by <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2017/12/the-worlds-newest-great-ape-revealed-a-month-ago-is-already-nearly-extinct-iucn/">83% over the past 75 years</a>, largely due to hunting and habitat loss. Just 800 Tapanuli orangutans remain – and their last known habitat is <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2019/02/new-species-of-orangutan-threatened-from-moment-of-its-discovery/">threatened</a> by a slew of infrastructure projects. </p>
<p>Chief among them is the Chinese-funded Batang Toru hydropower dam, which threatens to fragment and submerge a large chunk of the orangutan’s habitat. The project is just one of a staggering 49 hydropower dams China is funding: mostly across Southeast Asia, but also in Africa and Latin America.</p>
<p>In new <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2590332222004328">research</a>, my colleagues and I show the substantial risk to biodiversity posed by the sheer number of Chinese-funded dams. And yet, environmental regulation of these projects has serious flaws. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A river in mountain landscape" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498416/original/file-20221201-20-2c0qx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498416/original/file-20221201-20-2c0qx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498416/original/file-20221201-20-2c0qx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498416/original/file-20221201-20-2c0qx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498416/original/file-20221201-20-2c0qx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498416/original/file-20221201-20-2c0qx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498416/original/file-20221201-20-2c0qx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China is funding 49 overseas hydropower dams, including on Pakistan’s Indus River, pictured.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.diamerbhasha.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Big dams, big risks</h2>
<p>Hydropower is expected to be an important part of the global renewable energy transition. But the technology brings environmental risks. Dams disrupt the flow of rivers, altering species’ habitat. And dam reservoirs inundate and fragment habitats on land.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/GF.2020009">Traditionally</a>, financing of hydropower projects in low-income countries was the preserve of Western-backed multilateral development banks. China has now emerged as the biggest international financier of hydropower under its overseas infrastructure investment program, the Belt and Road Initiative. </p>
<p>Yet little is known about the scale of China’s hydropower financing or the biodiversity risks it brings. Whether adequate safeguards are applied to the projects by Chinese and host country regulators is also poorly understood. Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2590332222004328">research</a> attempted to remedy this. </p>
<p>We found China is funding 49 hydropower dams in 18 countries including Myanmar, Laos and Pakistan.</p>
<p>The dams are likely to impede the flow of 14 free-flowing rivers, imperilling the species they harbour. The first dam on a free-flowing river is akin to the proverbial “first cut” of a road into an intact forest ecosystem, causing disproportionate harms to biodiversity. </p>
<p>We also found Chinese-funded dams overlap with the geographic ranges of 12 critically endangered freshwater fish species, including the iconic Mekong Giant Catfish and the world’s largest carp species, the Giant Barb. The dams exacerbate the threats to these species and may push them closer to extinction. </p>
<p>Almost 135 square kilometres of critical habitat on land is also likely to be inundated and fragmented by the dams and their reservoirs. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-hydropower-industry-is-talking-the-talk-but-fine-words-wont-save-our-last-wild-rivers-168252">The hydropower industry is talking the talk. But fine words won't save our last wild rivers</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man looks at giant catfish" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498418/original/file-20221201-16-nwhp8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498418/original/file-20221201-16-nwhp8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498418/original/file-20221201-16-nwhp8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498418/original/file-20221201-16-nwhp8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498418/original/file-20221201-16-nwhp8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498418/original/file-20221201-16-nwhp8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498418/original/file-20221201-16-nwhp8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chinese-funded dams overlap with the geographic ranges of the critically endangered Mekong Giant Catfish.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zeb Hogan/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lax environmental rules</h2>
<p>Despite the biodiversity risks, we found serious gaps in the environmental rules applied to Chinese-funded dams.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0528-3">previous analysis</a> found six Chinese state-owned banks – which together contribute most financing for Belt and Road projects – had no safeguard standards to limit biodiversity damage. </p>
<p>Complementing this analysis, our investigation found Chinese regulators also did not require hydropower projects to mitigate environmental damage. Some regulator policies, however, contained non-binding guidelines.</p>
<p>A number of Chinese government policies defer to host country laws on environmental protection. But our investigation found in most countries where the dams are being built, regulation to limit environmental harms was absent or still developing. </p>
<p>This poor governance leaves species and ecosystems in these countries vulnerable to environmental damage from dams.</p>
<h2>A spotlight on Sumatra</h2>
<p>The Batang Toru dam aims to bolster North Sumatra’s energy supplies. Its proponents say the dam uses environmentally-friendly technology that requires only a small area to be flooded.</p>
<p>Two multilateral development banks, however, <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/07/batang-toru-hydropower-dam-tapanuli-orangutan-delay-nshe/">distanced themselves</a> from the project after concerns were raised about potential impact on the Tapanuli orangutan. The Chinese state-owned Bank of China also <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/dam-threatening-world-s-rarest-great-ape-faces-delays">withdrew</a> its finance offer after international protests. Chinese financier SDIC Power Holdings then <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b15d75ea-cced-4204-8540-912f9e693a5e">stepped in</a> to fund it.</p>
<p>Habitat destruction has confined the few remaining Tapanuli orangutans to a fragmented 1,400 square kilometre tract of rainforest in North Sumatra. Scientists say the Batang Toru dam further threatens this habitat.</p>
<p>Constructing the dam <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/new-great-ape-species-found-sparking-fears-its-survival?adobe_mc=MCORGID%3D242B6472541199F70A4C98A6%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1669850712&_ga=2.265727115.508268207.1669850712-1483009232.1669850712">requires digging</a> a tunnel in an area where most Tapanuli orangutans live. Experts also <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/dam-threatening-world-s-rarest-great-ape-faces-delays">say</a> the project will permanently isolate sub-populations of the species, increasing the risk of extinction. </p>
<p>The case illustrates the potential destruction hydropower projects can cause in the absence of appropriate planning and safeguards.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/orangutans-could-half-earth-conservation-save-the-red-ape-192529">Orangutans: could 'half-Earth' conservation save the red ape?</a>
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<img alt="small house on riverbank at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498421/original/file-20221201-18-7vak8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498421/original/file-20221201-18-7vak8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498421/original/file-20221201-18-7vak8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498421/original/file-20221201-18-7vak8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498421/original/file-20221201-18-7vak8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498421/original/file-20221201-18-7vak8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/498421/original/file-20221201-18-7vak8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Batang Toru dam aims to bolster North Sumatra’s energy supplies. Pictured: a house on a riverbank near the project.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/DEDI SINUHAJI</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Need for holistic planning</h2>
<p>The sheer number of Chinese-funded dams presents significant biodiversity risks. It also presents an opportunity. </p>
<p>China is funding several hydropower projects in single river basins. This puts it in an advantageous position to carry out “basin-scale planning”. </p>
<p>This involves making decisions about dams not based solely on an individual project, but by considering it in the context of other projects within the basin, as well as in the broader context of communities and the environment.</p>
<p>This type of planning also means dams can be configured to have the least impact on critically endangered species, and other irreplaceable and vulnerable biodiversity elements.</p>
<p>Such “system scale” planning is a key recommendation of international initiatives such as the World Commission on Dams and the European Union’s Water Framework Directive. </p>
<p>It also involves determining whether a proposed dam is the best way to meet energy needs, or if alternatives – such as wind or solar – could do so with lower environmental risks. </p>
<p>In the case of the Batang Toru dam, a 2020 <a href="https://www.mightyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/Batang_Toru_Analysis_English-final.pdf">report</a> by a leading international consulting firm found the dam would not “materially improve access to nor the regularity of power supply” in North Sumatra, which in fact had a power surplus. </p>
<p>Given the huge damage dams can cause to biodiversity, it is crucial that only those dams that are really needed get built – and any associated damage is minimised.</p>
<p>The many Chinese-funded dams on the horizon must undergo rigorous vetting if serious biodiversity damage is to be averted. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-conservation-areas-are-not-living-up-to-their-potential-in-indonesia-130463">Why conservation areas are not living up to their potential in Indonesia</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192615/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Divya Narain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The sheer number of Chinese-funded dams pose a substantial risk to biodiversity. And yet, environmental regulation of these projects has serious flaws.Divya Narain, PhD Candidate, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1937072022-11-03T19:00:47Z2022-11-03T19:00:47ZA platypus can glow green and hunt prey with electricity – but it can’t climb dams to find a mate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493180/original/file-20221103-20-i7d5kk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C559%2C5342%2C2902&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The platypus is one of Earth’s most unique creatures. It sports a duck-like bill and flippers. It locates prey in murky water by emitting an electric charge. Males have venomous spurs on their legs, and the females lay eggs. And a platypus’ fur glows blue-green under UV light!</p>
<p>Sadly, however, this fascinating and irreplaceable animal is at risk of extinction. Among the human-caused threats are habitat loss, climate change, pollution and becoming prey for invasive species such as foxes and dogs. To that list, we can now add another threat: dams.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-022-04038-9">New research</a> by myself and colleagues, published today, found large river dams restrict platypus movements and separate communities. </p>
<p>This increases the risk of inbreeding and restricts the exchange of genes essential to maintaining healthy platypus populations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="platypus swims through brown water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493181/original/file-20221103-14-el8js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493181/original/file-20221103-14-el8js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493181/original/file-20221103-14-el8js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493181/original/file-20221103-14-el8js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493181/original/file-20221103-14-el8js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493181/original/file-20221103-14-el8js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493181/original/file-20221103-14-el8js4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Research shows dams restrict platypus movements and separate communities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A spotlight on platypus genetics</h2>
<p>Dams pose a major threat to global freshwater biodiversity. In Australia, as many as 77% (383 out of 495) of major dams – those with walls higher than 10 metres – are in regions where platypuses are found.</p>
<p>Platypuses spend most of their time in the water. They can also move over land, however until now it was not certain if dams restrict platypus’ movement.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I set out to answer this question. We did this by examining the genetic makeup of platypuses in nine rivers in New South Wales and Victoria: five dammed and four free-flowing. They spanned the Upper Murray, Snowy Mountains, Central NSW and Border Rivers regions. </p>
<p>We captured platypuses across 81 sites. We weighed, measured, sexed and aged them, collected a blood sample then returned the animal to the water. DNA was later extracted from the blood. </p>
<p>So what did we find? Genetic differentiation between platypuses below and above dams was four to 20 times higher than along similar stretches of adjacent undammed rivers. This suggest hardly any platypuses have passed around the dams since they were built.</p>
<p>In fact, one platypus below the dam, and one platypus above the dam, were as genetically different as two platypuses living in different rivers. </p>
<p>Genetic differentiation is not necessarily good or bad. It just describes how genetically different two populations are. But the results mean we’re now far more confident that dams pose insurmountable barriers to platypuses.</p>
<p>Importantly, the genetic differentiation increased the longer the dam had been in place. This reflects the long-term impacts on platypus genetics.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-next-government-must-tackle-our-collapsing-ecosystems-and-extinction-crisis-182048">Australia's next government must tackle our collapsing ecosystems and extinction crisis</a>
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<img alt="a dam wall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493163/original/file-20221102-12-xwz79h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493163/original/file-20221102-12-xwz79h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493163/original/file-20221102-12-xwz79h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493163/original/file-20221102-12-xwz79h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493163/original/file-20221102-12-xwz79h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493163/original/file-20221102-12-xwz79h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493163/original/file-20221102-12-xwz79h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The results mean we’re now far more confident that dams pose insurmountable barriers to platypuses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does all this mean?</h2>
<p>There a several downsides for a species when populations are unable to connect. </p>
<p>First, it restricts the ability for animals to move to new habitat if needed, and find individuals to reproduce with.</p>
<p>Second, it reduces population size and gene flow. This is likely to lead to increased inbreeding and a reduction in the genetic variation necessary for the species to adapt to threats. </p>
<p>Third, it can lead to “inbreeding depression” – the reduced survival and fertility of offspring of related individuals.</p>
<p>The platypus is currently listed as near threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. It’s also listed as endangered in South Australia and vulnerable in Victoria.</p>
<p>Continued declines are predicted under climate change as a result of drought and hotter conditions, which could mean <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02472.x">more than 30%</a> of suitable platypus habitat is lost by 2070.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-ensure-the-worlds-largest-pumped-hydro-dam-isnt-a-disaster-for-queenslands-environment-191758">How to ensure the world's largest pumped-hydro dam isn't a disaster for Queensland's environment</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="platypus swims through tropical river" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493162/original/file-20221102-20-pgaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493162/original/file-20221102-20-pgaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493162/original/file-20221102-20-pgaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493162/original/file-20221102-20-pgaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493162/original/file-20221102-20-pgaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493162/original/file-20221102-20-pgaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493162/original/file-20221102-20-pgaf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change could mean more than 30% of platypus habitat is lost by 2070.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So how can we protect the platypus? There are many steps we could take, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>rehabilitating riverbanks by replanting trees and restricting livestock access</p></li>
<li><p>improving water quality and natural flow regimes in rivers</p></li>
<li><p>limiting dams, roads, weirs and other structures </p></li>
<li><p>building bypasses so platypuses can move across barriers</p></li>
<li><p>protecting platypuses from invasive predators when they move over land</p></li>
<li><p>reducing river pollution</p></li>
<li><p>establishing insurance populations to ensure genetic diversity</p></li>
<li><p>relocating individuals</p></li>
<li><p>more research to understand breeding requirements.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="platypus clambers over rocks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493170/original/file-20221102-12-vzhx54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493170/original/file-20221102-12-vzhx54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493170/original/file-20221102-12-vzhx54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493170/original/file-20221102-12-vzhx54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493170/original/file-20221102-12-vzhx54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493170/original/file-20221102-12-vzhx54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493170/original/file-20221102-12-vzhx54.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Limiting dams and other barriers would help protect platypuses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Platypus, be dammed</h2>
<p>Our results reinforce growing evidence that major dams contribute to a decline in platypus populations. </p>
<p>The problem extends beyond that identified in our study. Below major dams, altered natural flow regimes in rivers have been found to significantly impact the abundance of platypuses. And research has found conditions below and above major dams are poor for platypuses to forage and live.</p>
<p>We hope our research will inform conservation decision-making, and will help ensure the long-term survival of this Australian icon.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/money-for-dams-dries-up-as-good-water-management-finally-makes-it-into-a-federal-budget-193380">Money for dams dries up as good water management finally makes it into a federal budget</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193707/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Mijangos receives funding from UNSW Canberra, Australian Research Council, Taronga Conservation Society, and the Australian Government’s Environmental Water Holder.</span></em></p>Dams prevent platypus movements, which restricts the exchange of genes essential to maintaining healthy populations.Luis Mijangos, Researcher, Centre for Conservation Ecology and Genomics, Institute for Applied Ecology, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1933802022-10-27T19:05:43Z2022-10-27T19:05:43ZMoney for dams dries up as good water management finally makes it into a federal budget<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492016/original/file-20221027-23859-8g7fsa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C25%2C5551%2C3675&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wyangala Dam</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A story from the early days of the Abbott government still circulates in the halls of Parliament House.</p>
<p>The government’s Expenditure Review Committee apparently supported then Minister for Agriculture Barnaby Joyce’s first A$500 million budget funding for the National Party’s dam-building plans, over then Treasurer Joe Hockey’s objections. Hockey reputedly said to Joyce “good luck with that, I don’t think you’ll build one of them”. If true then Joe, take a cigar.</p>
<p>In our land of drought and flooding rains, better water management should feature in every federal budget. Thankfully, the budget handed down by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Tuesday delivers it.</p>
<p>It slashes spending on big dams and elevates the role of science in water decision-making. It also positions Labor to undertake further reform in the Murray-Darling Basin by buying back more water from farmers to improve the health of the rivers, and manage the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>These measures promise to deliver more sustainable use of water in Australia’s most economically important and exploited river system. But they also buy a fight with some quarters of the farming community, and the New South Wales and Victorian governments.</p>
<h2>Nationals set about building dams</h2>
<p>Dams are a talisman for Australians <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0725513618821970">who believe</a> development and the conquest of nature is essential to nation-building. </p>
<p>The National Party arguably exemplifies this ideology. It gained control of the water portfolios in the former federal government and current NSW government and set about trying to <a href="https://barnabyjoyce.com.au/opinion-piece">build dams</a>, especially in the Murray-Darling Basin.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party has conceded to National Party demands on water even though the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/policy/nwi">National Water Initiative</a>, established by the Coalition in 2004, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/sitecollectiondocuments/water/Intergovernmental-Agreement-on-a-national-water-initiative.pdf">stipulates</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>proposals for investment in new or refurbished water infrastructure […] be assessed as economically viable and ecologically sustainable prior to the investment occurring.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This week’s budget wields a long overdue axe to dam proposals from Coalition governments, saving <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp1/download/bp1_2022-23.pdf">$1.7 billion over four years</a>. Two of the most controversial dam proposals in the Murray-Darling Basin are among those axed or indefinitely postponed. </p>
<p>First is the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/17/dungowan-dam-likely-dead-in-the-water-after-infrastructure-australia-deems-proposal-low-priority">$1.27 billion</a> Dungowan proposal near Tamworth in NSW. <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/water-reform-2020/report">It was slammed</a> by the Productivity Commission as excessively expensive and the leading example of poor water infrastructure decision making. </p>
<p>Second is the hugely expensive - up to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-18/wyangala-dam-wall-raising-missing-from-election-campaign-/101072664">$2.1 billion at last estimate</a> - raising of Wyangala Dam, near Cowra. In 2021 a NSW <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-details.aspx?pk=2614#tab-reportsandgovernmentresponses">parliamentary inquiry</a> found the proposal was “yet to demonstrate the cost effectiveness and water yield benefits of the project”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-sensible-budget-leaves-australians-short-changed-on-climate-action-heres-where-it-went-wrong-193215">Labor's 'sensible' budget leaves Australians short-changed on climate action. Here's where it went wrong</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Further, $153.8 million of unallocated funding in former “water efficiency” projects in the basin has been (somewhat ambiguously) “re-profiled”. These efficiency projects have been <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2019.1579965">criticised as</a> double-counting water at the expense of the environment, being very expensive and subsidising irrigators. </p>
<p>Importantly, Labor has quietly sought to lock a commitment to better governance with transparent environmental and socio-economic assessment standards in a new <a href="https://www.nationalwatergrid.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/investment-framework-october-2022.pdf">National Water Grid Investment Framework</a>.</p>
<h2>Science and the Murray-Darling Basin</h2>
<p>Labor has allocated $51.9 million over five years to strengthen the Murray-Darling Basin Plan “by updating the science to account for the impacts of climate change and restore trust and transparency in water management”.</p>
<p>This spending is timely. The past decade and more has seen risk-averse government agencies commission water research through narrow briefs to the government-owned CSIRO and other contractors. In one instance, the South Australian Royal Commission into the <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2019-01/apo-nid217606.pdf">Murray-Darling Basin</a> described this research as “improperly pressured” and representing “maladministration”.</p>
<p>The situation worsened when the research program into better water management commissioned by the independent National Water Commission was <a href="https://www.water-alternatives.org/index.php/alldoc/articles/volume-13/issue-1/561-a13-1-1">axed under Abbott</a> in 2014.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/excessive-water-extractions-not-climate-change-are-most-to-blame-for-the-darling-river-drying-192621">Excessive water extractions, not climate change, are most to blame for the Darling River drying</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This has resulted in science that may not be independently peer-reviewed and often doesn’t address the big questions.</p>
<p>For instance, after allocating around <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/programs/water-reform">$13 billion</a> for water management reforms in the basin since 2008, governments still can’t tell the public:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>why water inflows into South Australia are about <a href="https://wentworthgroup.org/2020/09/mdb-flows-2020/">22% lower</a> than basin modelling projected (excluding climatic variability)</p></li>
<li><p>the area and types of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF20172">wetlands watered</a> each year </p></li>
<li><p>if <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF21057">threatened species populations</a> are recovering. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Further, water institutions in the basin do not currently adequately <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S146290112030215X">address the threat</a> of climate change.</p>
<h2>Returning water to the rivers</h2>
<p>Measures to implement the basin plan are meant to be complete in mid-2024. Consequently, allocated funding for all Basin water reforms was due to decline markedly after this point. Yet, major and expensive elements of the plan have still <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-03/reckoning-coming-for-murray-darling-basin-plan/101020756">not been implemented</a>.</p>
<p>In just one example, the Victorian and NSW governments were supposed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2020.1832723">to reach agreements</a> and pay over 3,300 riverside land owners to fill river channels and allow water to spill safely onto the lower-most floodplains. This would conserve nearly 375,000 hectares of wetlands, and maximise conservation of flora and fauna with the limited volume of available environmental water. </p>
<p>However, since 2013 the state governments have failed to make a single agreement with land owners.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A river on a sunny day, behind two big trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Murrumbidgee river at Yanga Woolshed, a major tributary of the Murray-Darling Basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jamie Pittock</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hundreds of billions of litres of water that were supposed to have been reallocated to the environment are still missing. The latest federal budget describes the lack of water recovery for the environment as an unquantified “fiscal risk”. </p>
<p>Waving a big stick, Labor has allocated initial funding for meeting the environmental water targets in the plan. The amount of the funding has not been disclosed. It could involve purchasing water entitlements from farmers who volunteer to sell them – a move deeply <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/27/farmers-gear-up-to-fight-water-buybacks-as-federal-budget-allocates-funding-to-meet-murray-darling-targets">opposed by</a> the state governments and the irrigation industry.</p>
<p>The budget also funds repairs to other broken elements of the basin’s water governance. After a decade of cuts, the now Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp2/index.htm">will have funding</a> restored to, among other goals, improve “the health of our rivers and freshwater ecosystems”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-an-ugly-legacy-of-denying-water-rights-to-aboriginal-people-not-much-has-changed-141743">Australia has an ugly legacy of denying water rights to Aboriginal people. Not much has changed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There is also money to start work on re-establishing a National Water Commission, and <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp1/index.htm">to reform</a> the much criticised water trading markets to make them more transparent and robust. </p>
<p>Finally, the budget allocates $40 million to begin addressing the appalling dispossession of water from Indigenous peoples, who now hold <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2021.1970094?src=recsys">just 0.17%</a> of surface water entitlements in the basin. It’s a small but important first step for water justice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193380/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pittock is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, and is a member of and advises a number of other environmental non-government organizations. Many moons ago he received funding from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (RIP) for research on on climate change adaptation in the Murray-Darling Basin.</span></em></p>In our land of drought and flooding rains, better water management should feature in every federal budget. The new budget delivers it – but not everyone is happy.Jamie Pittock, Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1927772022-10-23T08:34:40Z2022-10-23T08:34:40ZNigeria floods: government’s mismanagement of dams is a major cause<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490862/original/file-20221020-26-7i5z1i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C24%2C5455%2C3612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The flooding wiped out farms in Kogi and other affected states. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/farmer-walks-by-his-flooded-cornfield-following-heavy-rain-news-photo/1033290226?phrase=flooding%20in%20kogi&adppopup=true">Sodiq Adelakun/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Parts of Nigeria face severe flooding every year, particularly <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/09/we-didnt-deny-anyone-the-opportunity-to-get-permanent-voter-card-inec/">states located</a> along the courses of the Niger and Benue rivers. The release of excess water from a dam in neighbouring Cameroon contributes to the flooding. Olayinka Ogunkoya unpacks Nigeria’s mismanagement of its dams.</em></p>
<hr>
<h2>What impact does poor dam management have on flooding in Nigeria?</h2>
<p>The operations management of dams and reservoirs depends on what purpose the dam was built for. If a dam was built for water supply, irrigation or hydro-electric power, the aim would be to keep the dam as close to full pool capacity as possible so as to maximise resource availability.</p>
<p>If the dam was constructed for flood control, then the aim would be to de-water the reservoir before the flood season. This is why flood control reservoirs and dams have temporary reservoir storage space for storing spate flow to alleviate downstream flood damage. </p>
<p>The water is subsequently released downstream at rates that will not create flood conditions.</p>
<p>Most dams serve multiple purposes. For example, the dams on the River Niger, Kainji and Jebba, and its tributaries, Shiroro and Zungeru on the River Kaduna; and those on the tributaries of the River Benue – Dadin Kowa and Kiri on the River Gongola, and Kashimbila on the River Katsina Ala – were built for hydro-electric power generation, fisheries and flood control.</p>
<iframe title="" aria-label="Locator maps" id="datawrapper-chart-iDrTZ" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iDrTZ/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="700" width="100%"></iframe>
<p>Managing reservoirs for flood control requires keeping the maximum possible empty space before the flood season. <a href="https://www.engr.colostate.edu/ce/facultystaff/salas/us-italy/papers/43valdes.pdf">Water storage</a> is required for the remaining objectives of water supply, irrigation and hydropower. </p>
<p>In the Nigerian situation, hydropower generation dominates the functions of many large dams. This means that the management of reservoirs would focus on keeping the level at full pool. </p>
<p>This runs against the grain of what’s needed for flood control. If there’s no storage space then incoming flood waters won’t be contained. </p>
<h2>What measures should be in place to avert flooding?</h2>
<p>Nigeria needs to create structures along the River Benue and its tributaries that will serve primarily for flood control, and secondarily for hydro-electric power.</p>
<p>Given the lack of resources, it would be difficult to build dams for only flood control. Efforts should therefore be made towards the realisation of 1970s plans for the construction of large hydropower dams at Makurdi,
Lokoja and Onitsha. These dams, apart from supplying electricity (3300 MW), would have significant flood control and mitigation capability.</p>
<p>A few more dams could be constructed upstream of Makurdi on River Benue. One is the Dasin Hausa Dam. This has been designed to detain excess spillage from the Lagdo Dam, and also generate 300 MW, irrigate 150,000 hectares, and make it possible to navigate the River Benue all year.</p>
<p>Many flood control dams and reservoirs should be built along the tributaries of River Benue since these are also high-discharge rivers and contribute to the flooding potential of their principal.</p>
<p>Flood control structures provide for temporary storage of flood waters upstream so that downstream areas are protected against inundation. The flood waters are gradually released when the threat of flooding has declined.</p>
<p>Secondly, urban and settlement growth involving building on lower lying areas that receive runoff should be zoned off unless the areas are reclaimed and significantly elevated.</p>
<h2>How can affected communities be better protected?</h2>
<p>Abatement measures. These involve enforcing policies and the construction of structures that inhibit flooding – or at the least significantly reduce its impact. Such measures include zoning regulation, catchment afforestation, desilting of channels, and construction of flood control reservoirs.</p>
<p>Protection measures should also be taken. These include strengthening the natural levees or construction of artificial levees (flood embankments). A levee is a “dike” along the banks of a river formed by sediments deposited during flood events. The crest of the levee is higher than the floodplain, and thus protects the floodplain from inundation or flooding where the levee is sturdy.</p>
<p>Flood embankments or artificial levees are usually built of alluvial material dug out of pits on site. Other types of embankments are flood walls made of reinforced concrete, sheet pile and masonry.</p>
<p>During exceptionally severe flood events, embankments may be gradually increased in height, for instance by sand-bagging, to prevent them from being overtopped and damaged. However, flood embankments can have a number of negative effects. They can:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>reduce storage capacity of the river channel and flood plains by restricting flow from the channel to the flood plain</p></li>
<li><p>protect only against moderate floods, since extreme floods could
readily over-top the walls </p></li>
<li><p>inhibit the continuing build-up and nutrient enhancement of the
floodplain, which would have occurred naturally as a result of inundation and
siltation.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What can Nigeria do to make better use of its dams?</h2>
<p>Large dams in Nigeria are fully owned by the government. The states and federal governments can make better use of their dams by ensuring that the dam structure, reservoir and related equipment and canals are maintained properly. </p>
<p>Currently, most plants and equipment have broken down or are functioning well below installed capacity. This is because dam management doesn’t adhere to operation manuals. </p>
<p>Many dams in south-western Nigeria have been so neglected that mature trees are growing on their faces.</p>
<p>All dam projects under construction must be urgently completed. There are dams uncompleted since the 1980s. </p>
<p>A main challenge in Nigeria is policy discontinuity by successive governments. The result is the accumulation of abandoned projects in all spheres of national development: dam, power, water supply and irrigation, steel industry and roads.</p>
<p>It appears it is yet to be appreciated that government is a continuity, whether it is the green or red party that is in control, and all projects initiated by the previous administration have to be completed by succeeding administrations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192777/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olayinka Olatokunbo Ogunkoya does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Proper dam management can help check flooding in Nigeria.Olayinka Olatokunbo Ogunkoya, Professor of Geomorphology, Obafemi Awolowo UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1900272022-09-20T20:14:02Z2022-09-20T20:14:02ZPakistan’s floods are a disaster – but they didn’t have to be<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483775/original/file-20220909-22-d38a7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Over 33 million people have been immediately affected by the flooding currently affecting Pakistan.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pakistan-flood-stock-image-2022-city-2188233819">Graphic_Plus/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-floods-2022-humanity-first-situation-update-02-09-september-2022">devastating flooding</a> affecting Pakistan has killed over 1,300 people, damaged over 1.7 million homes, and is disrupting food production. Over 33 million people have been affected so far.</p>
<p>The destruction caused by these so-called “natural disasters” is often accepted as largely unavoidable and unpredictable. Climate change is also blamed for the alleged increased frequency of disasters.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/260566a0">decades of research</a> explain that disasters are instead caused by <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Interpretations-of-Calamity-From-the-Viewpoint-of-Human-Ecology/Hewitt/p/book/9780367350796">sources of vulnerability</a> rather than by the climate or other environmental influences. Sources of vulnerability stem from a lack of power and resources to prepare for hazards. This includes poorly designed infrastructure along with social marginalisation and inequity, which restrict access to education and other key services.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/disaster-by-choice-9780198841357">disaster</a> is where the ability of people to cope with a hazard or its impacts by using their own resources is exceeded. Where resources are scarce or inadequate, a hazard often adversely affects people.</p>
<p>Consequently, framing a flood as a “natural disaster” deflects from the <a href="https://practicalactionpublishing.com/book/527/development-in-disaster-prone-places">reality</a> that vulnerability must exist before a crisis can emerge. The failure of governments to suitably prepare people for these hazards is a root cause of disaster. No matter the severity of the flooding event, <a href="https://www.routledge.com/At-Risk-Natural-Hazards-Peoples-Vulnerability-and-Disasters/Blaikie-Cannon-Davis-Wisner/p/book/9780415252164">a disaster can be avoided</a>.</p>
<h2>Vulnerability to floods remains high</h2>
<p>Pakistan has been subject <a href="https://doi.org/10.1525/aa.1967.69.1.02a00040">to regular flooding</a> throughout history. This year’s flood is the country’s sixth since 1950 to kill <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12084">over 1,000 people</a>. These disasters have encouraged numerous attempts at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.014">flood risk management</a>.</p>
<p>However, vulnerability towards flooding <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04336-7">remains high</a>. Many of the existing management measures may even have unintentionally worsened the effects of flooding. Poorly implemented <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07900620048590">urban development</a> throughout Pakistan has further contributed by exacerbating surface runoff.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02508069708686712">Structural measures</a> have dominated flood risk management in Pakistan. This is despite <a href="https://doi.org/10.3763/ehaz.1999.0109">research</a> suggesting that a reliance on them can worsen the impact of flooding.</p>
<p>People tend to view engineered structures as being <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/abs/10.3316/ielapa.399490310988973">safe and protective</a>. Presuming the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb04025.x">infallibility</a> of these structures, they adjust their livelihoods and lifestyles accordingly. When a large flood occurs and these structures are breached, the impacts of flooding are amplified.</p>
<p>In 2005, the Shadi Kaur dam in the southern province of Balochistan broke during heavy rains, claiming the lives of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.014">over 135 people</a>. The current floods have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txHqL-71oQ0">damaged eight dams</a> in the same region.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dam preserving a reservoir in an arid, mountainous region." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pakistan’s flood management strategy has focused on structural measures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tarbela-dam-haripur-pakistan-1638076603">AhsanAli2020/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pakistan’s focus on large scale infrastructure and response measures has led to a neglect for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02508069708686712">nonstructural risk reduction measures</a>. Many people therefore have few options to address their vulnerability.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.03.009">2016 study</a> concluded that people in Pakistan’s Khyber Pukhthunkhwa province had little awareness of flood risks and how to prepare. Education and employment rates in the region <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3293-0">remain low</a>. A literacy rate of <a href="https://kpbos.gov.pk/search/indicator-detail?id=1155">57%</a> greatly restricts access to information enabling risk reduction.</p>
<p>Many people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/0033-0124.00318">continue to live on floodplains for agriculture</a> and as a result remain highly vulnerable. Despite investment in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2015.1075859">warning systems</a>, these serve little purpose if people are unaware of how to act or do not have the resources to do so.</p>
<p>Gender inequity remains <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2016.08.001">prevalent across rural Pakistan</a>. This makes women <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2015.1075859">particularly vulnerable to flooding</a> because they are more likely to face the issues related to employment and education highlighted above.</p>
<p>The extensive damage during this year’s flooding is therefore unsurprising. Khyber Pukthunkhwa has been <a href="http://cms.ndma.gov.pk/storage/app/public/situation-reports/September2022/Puu9czsHcyHSF8izTFNZ.pdf">badly inundated</a>, forcing almost 70,000 people into temporary camps.</p>
<h2>Addressing Pakistan’s vulnerability</h2>
<p>Pakistan’s current <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.014">flood management strategies</a> do not adequately address vulnerability. While flood management is gradually <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-7600-0_3">shifting away from centralised and post-disaster measures</a>, progress has been slow.</p>
<p>Pakistan needs to adopt a proactive approach to swiftly address the underlying causes of vulnerability. People need better access to information about flood risks as well as the resources to help them prepare. In the future, disasters will persist unless profound changes are made. This must include steps to ensure effective governance, to encourage safe land use and to guarantee full access to education.</p>
<p>Human activities are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">changing the climate</a> with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2020.1">clear consequences on the weather</a>. An extended period of <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/Scientific-report-Pakistan-floods.pdf">high rainfall</a> contributed to severe floods in Pakistan this year. However, the consequent catastrophe has been created by <a href="https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/defining-disaster-9781839100291.html">human actions</a>.</p>
<p>The resources and techniques exist to avoid flood disasters in Pakistan. However, these resources have not been distributed effectively. While climate change influences the frequency of flooding, it does not create flood disasters. Where vulnerable people are placed at risk, a catastrophe follows.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190027/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilan Kelman receives funding from research councils in the UK and Norway, as well as from the Wellcome Trust and internal UCL funding. He is also Professor II at the University of Agder in Norway and co-directs the non-profit organisation Risk RED (Risk Reduction Education for Disasters).</span></em></p>Framing floods as ‘natural disasters’ deflects from the reality that vulnerability must exist before a crisis can emerge.Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1898152022-09-08T17:32:09Z2022-09-08T17:32:09ZPakistan needs a national development program to combat future floods and droughts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483376/original/file-20220908-9663-lpex5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3603%2C2270&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pakistani women wade through floodwaters as they take refuge on Sep. 2, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Fareed Khan)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/pakistan-needs-a-national-development-program-to-combat-future-floods-and-droughts" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Pakistan is suffering from the aftermath of yet another massive flood covering about <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/pakistan-floods-key-points-third-of-country-under-water-right-now/articleshow/93858586.cms">one-third of its landmass</a>. This time it has affected more than 33 million people in the Indus River valley, with extensive damage to life, property, crops and livestock. </p>
<p>The Indus River valley contains a rich and multicultural history with enormous human potential, all of which is centred around an agricultural economy. With this flood, the economic backbone of the nation is shattered — rehabilitation of agriculture around the Indus River will take years, if not decades.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wUllSWVpynI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Al Jazeera English reports on the economic implications of the floods in Pakistan.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is at least the fourth major flood within a generation; previous floods occurred in <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-floods-sep-1992-un-dha-situation-reports-1-8">1992</a>, <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-floods-jul-1993-un-dha-information-reports-1-2">1993</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Pakistan-Floods-of-2010">2010</a>. An increased frequency of such events in the country must be attributed to global temperature rise, particularly since the 1970s. Although Pakistan is responsible for only one per cent of global carbon emissions, it is the <a href="https://www.germanwatch.org/sites/germanwatch.org/files/2021-01/cri-2021_table_10_countries_most_affected_from_2000_to_2019.jpg">eighth most climate change-affected nation on earth</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-floods-what-role-did-climate-change-play-189833">Pakistan floods: what role did climate change play?</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<h2>Climate change impacts</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/pakistan/climate-data-historical">climate in most of Pakistan</a> is arid, with the exception of the mountainous region (north and northwest) that is classified as cold. This region serves as the main water storage for the country, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/pakistan-has-more-glaciers-than-almost-anywhere-on-earth-but-they-are-at-risk/2016/08/11/7a6b4cd4-4882-11e6-8dac-0c6e4accc5b1_story.html">with at least 7,253 glaciers</a> containing more ice than anywhere else on earth outside of the polar areas. </p>
<p>The northern areas also receive snow in winter that melts by early spring. Rising global temperatures are accelerating glacial meltdown, depleting a water source and placing the glaciers at a risk of being permanently wiped out. </p>
<p><a href="https://d-nb.info/1201881048/34">Monsoon rains</a> across most of the country are even more critical because these can result in larger amounts of overland flow in a very short time. With increased evaporation from the Indian Ocean due to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-02813-6">intense heatwaves</a>, such as the one that happened this year, the number of rainy days and the total amount of rain are expected to increase in the future. </p>
<p>Most of the precipitation (glacial meltdown, snow thawing or rainfall) will continue to end up as surface runoff. This is because of the steep and rocky terrain in the mountainous areas and the mostly dry open fields and urban ground cover in the plains.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483377/original/file-20220908-9639-659s2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="an ice-covered mountain range." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483377/original/file-20220908-9639-659s2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483377/original/file-20220908-9639-659s2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483377/original/file-20220908-9639-659s2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483377/original/file-20220908-9639-659s2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483377/original/file-20220908-9639-659s2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483377/original/file-20220908-9639-659s2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483377/original/file-20220908-9639-659s2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pakistan is home to the largest number of glaciers — like the Minapin glacier shown here — outside of the polar regions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Water management in Pakistan</h2>
<p>The Indus River runs through the length of Pakistan. It originates in the Himalayas and meanders to the west through high altitudes. When it reaches the plains, it mainly flows southward and is successively joined by its western tributaries (Kabul, Kurram and Gomal) followed by its eastern tributaries (Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej). Thereafter, it eventually drains into the Arabian Sea. </p>
<p>Along the Indus River’s flow path, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Indus-River/Irrigation">dams, barrages and a canal system are used to manage water flow</a>. Likewise, several dams and barrages have been constructed along the various tributaries with some of these joined by major canals. </p>
<p>This irrigation infrastructure is not adequate to manage flash floods or long periods of droughts. Existing dams are not very many and do not have enough depth to store water in case of excessive floods. Flowing water carries along with it suspended particles from the mountains and deposits it in the plains. This reduces the storage capacity of the reservoirs and clogs the waterways, resulting in overflows. </p>
<p>It is estimated that the canal system is running at <a href="https://pecongress.org.pk/images/upload/books/107-114-302%20Managing%20flod%20Asad%20Sarwar%20Qureshi.pdf">30 per cent lower efficiency</a>. The overflow water usually drains into the ocean, which means that not enough water is available during droughts while there is a lot of it during floods.</p>
<h2>Awareness and responsibility</h2>
<p>There is a general lack of social awareness and responsibility within the society for reasons ranging from education to poverty and from governance to politics. The result is that people in Pakistan are not prepared to face the force of water, let alone prepare for it. </p>
<p>Encroachment of construction within rivers is quite common across the country. In the town of Bahrain, for example, hotels and shops constructed within the riverbed were <a href="https://www.samaaenglish.tv/news/40015678">washed away during the current floods</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3808/jeil.201900002">The effects of land features</a> such as ground cover, river slope and soil type on floods and droughts are not widely understood by the public. Additionally, a flood warning system does not exist in the country. </p>
<p>Similarly, awareness at the scale of individual farms is limited when it comes to adopting nature-based solutions such as protecting wetlands, re-grading of ground to alter water flow or creating dugouts to store water.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483379/original/file-20220908-18-xe2kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A damaged mosque is surrounded by floodwaters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483379/original/file-20220908-18-xe2kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483379/original/file-20220908-18-xe2kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483379/original/file-20220908-18-xe2kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483379/original/file-20220908-18-xe2kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483379/original/file-20220908-18-xe2kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483379/original/file-20220908-18-xe2kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483379/original/file-20220908-18-xe2kj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A damaged mosque is surrounded by floodwaters in Bahrain, Pakistan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Sherin Zada)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Committed leadership is required</h2>
<p>Pakistan needs a proactive approach to enhancing the country’s infrastructure, as opposed to exclusively focusing on disaster risk reduction activities. A national strategy is required to develop and implement programs such as effective <a href="https://www.oecd.org/cfe/regionaldevelopment/governance-of-land-use-policy-highlights.pdf">land-use zoning</a>, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/12/1920">soil-climate modelling</a>, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/policy-perspectives-climate-resilient-infrastructure.pdf">resilient infrastructure development</a> and <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2412-3811/5/12/109">adaptive asset management</a>. Although expensive and time-consuming, the construction of large dams is inevitable.</p>
<p>A national development program requires committed leadership at various levels of governments and the society. Such a strategy should focus on building local capacity over a long period, and must include public education and incentive schemes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189815/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shahid Azam receives research funding from NSERC and TransGas Limited. He has also consulted with Clifton Associates Limited.</span></em></p>Climate change will increase the frequency of both floods and droughts in Pakistan. To address these challenges, enhancing infrastructure, building dams and educating the public are necessary.Shahid Azam, Professor, Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, University of ReginaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1841152022-08-02T17:07:43Z2022-08-02T17:07:43ZFish passes can reconnect species with habitats blocked by dams – here’s how they work<p>Over one million dams and <a href="https://theconversation.com/culverts-the-major-threat-to-fish-youve-probably-never-heard-of-143629">culverts</a> (tunnels that encircle rivers passing under roads) block the movements of fish and other wildlife in Europe. Scientists <a href="https://amber.international/stream-fragmentation-in-great-britain/">estimate</a> that less than 1% of catchments in the UK are free of obstruction. A <a href="https://worldfishmigrationfoundation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/LPI_report_2020.pdf">report</a> released in 2020 showed the effect this trend is having worldwide: a more than 75% decline in the abundance of 247 migratory fish species globally since 1970. </p>
<p><a href="https://youtu.be/RuxBMBEAnJk">Brown trout</a>, for example, must swim upriver into streams to spawn. Adult <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/fish/facts/european-eel">European eels</a> meanwhile need to make their way downriver and out to <a href="https://theconversation.com/satellite-tagged-eels-are-leading-us-towards-their-mysterious-birthplace-66594">sea</a> to do the same. Even small dams like weirs that are a metre tall can prevent fish from swimming upstream because they are higher than most fish can jump. </p>
<p>Suitable spawning areas aren’t found everywhere in a river: every fish species <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2019.00286/full">has its own needs</a>. If a dam prohibits fish from reaching those habitats, the shortfall in offspring can cause populations to decline. Species <a href="https://theconversation.com/habitat-loss-doesnt-just-affect-species-it-impacts-networks-of-ecological-relationships-117687">living on the edge</a> of suitable habitats are more vulnerable to droughts and pollution and are therefore at greater risk of extinction.</p>
<p>One solution is to <a href="https://twitter.com/SCRiversTrust/status/1545052431620313094?cxt=HHwWjMCooYTAkPEqAAAA">remove dams</a>. The EU <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_3746">plans</a> to reconnect at least 25,000km of river across the continent by 2030, restoring the pathways migratory fish take to reproduce or feed. Completely removing a dam isn’t always possible, though, particularly where they are still used to help boats navigate. Instead, fish passes – also called fishways or ladders – can be built alongside dams to help fish <a href="https://worcesterobserver.co.uk/news/first-major-fish-pass-unlocked-by-river-severn-conservation-project/">swim up and around</a>. So how do fish passes work – and what can they do to help river ecosystems recover? </p>
<h2>Go, fish!</h2>
<p>The River Severn is the UK’s longest. Like the Mississippi in the US, the Severn has a <a href="https://www.teachengineering.org/lessons/view/cub_dams_lesson03">lock and dam</a> system on its main stem. This was built in the mid-19th century to help barges move from one section of the river to another, and is still used today. Dams raise the water level behind them and locks (giant gates) open and close to raise boats up and over.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KglFyCnp65Y?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Damming caused populations of <a href="https://canalrivertrust.org.uk/enjoy-the-waterways/fishing/caring-for-our-fish/freshwater-fish-species/rare-and-protected-fish/twaite-shad">Twaite shad</a> – a silvery, herring-like fish which must move up and down the Severn to feed, grow and reproduce – to crash almost overnight. Today, it remains one of the country’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX9Pc197z44">rarest species</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.unlockingthesevern.co.uk/about-this-project/">The Severn Rivers Trust</a> and partners set out to help the Twaite shad reach its historical spawning habitat upriver. Scientists <a href="https://www.unlockingthesevern.co.uk/2021/03/08/unlocking-the-secrets-of-how-fish-move-within-the-uks-longest-river/">tracked</a> the fish returning to the Severn from the sea to spawn and found that the Diglis weir near Worcester was blocking their passage. Just months after the <a href="https://youtu.be/YX9Pc197z44">largest fish pass</a> in England opened in May 2021, Twaite shad were <a href="https://youtu.be/yq06qWnH90M">recorded</a> making their way upstream and beyond the locks and dams for the first time in over a century.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475855/original/file-20220725-19-unq819.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial view of a river with a weir and a stone passage bypassing it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475855/original/file-20220725-19-unq819.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475855/original/file-20220725-19-unq819.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475855/original/file-20220725-19-unq819.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475855/original/file-20220725-19-unq819.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475855/original/file-20220725-19-unq819.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475855/original/file-20220725-19-unq819.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475855/original/file-20220725-19-unq819.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Diglis Weir with the fish pass visible to its left.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Skynique/Severn Rivers Trust</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fish passes come in <a href="https://theconstructor.org/water-resources/types-fish-ladders-fishways/33911/">different designs and sizes</a>, but all are supposed to allow fish to ascend rivers through lower gradient channels or smaller steps around the side of a dam they cannot swim or jump over. Fish swimming upriver must find a narrow entrance to the pass, and the water flowing out of it is often the clue they need. Just like the river, water flows from upstream to downstream in a fish pass. If the flow is too gentle for most fish to notice or it’s too fast or turbulent for them to swim up it, the pass will either be used by some species or none at all. </p>
<p>Fish passes tend to have small, subdivided sections that act as areas for fish to rest during their journey too. The incline, the number of resting places and the flow of water both inside and at the entrance are all important for determining whether fish use the pass and if they can make it upriver.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/08PTY0o23Js?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>The fish pass at Diglis weir was designed for Twaite shad, which are not strong swimmers or leapers. A fish pass that this species can traverse will probably allow fish of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_FO0R48d3Y&list=PL5tw6FzDfCrmQ4fk3ATD0-JFq_k8h5Z9a">various sizes and swimming abilities</a> to make their way upriver too. Not all fish passes are designed to accommodate weaker swimmers, however. Globally, fish passes have largely been built to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/faf.12258">benefit</a> a single species or group, particularly those that are economically important, like salmon.</p>
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<p>To begin to reverse the plunge in migratory fish populations, countries should build fish passes and remove dams in ways which benefit the greatest number of species. This will require governments establishing appropriate design standards and making it a national priority to reconnect their many disjointed rivers.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184115/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Januchowski-Hartley receives funding from the Welsh government and the European Regional Development Fund. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Virgilio Hermoso receives funding from the Junta de Andalucia through an Emergia contract. </span></em></p>Migratory fish populations have collapsed worldwide in the last 50 years.Stephanie Januchowski-Hartley, Sêr Cymru Research Fellow in Environmental Sciences, Swansea UniversityVirgilio Hermoso, Investigador distinguido, Universidad de SevillaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.