tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/deep-decarbonisation-pathways-project-11460/articlesDeep Decarbonisation Pathways Project – The Conversation2017-07-12T05:13:25Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/808832017-07-12T05:13:25Z2017-07-12T05:13:25ZThe electricity sector needs to cut carbon by 45% by 2030 to keep Australia on track<p>Our <a href="https://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/publications/cwa_power_up_report_final_12_jul.pdf">new ClimateWorks Australia report</a>, released today, shows that the electricity sector needs to deliver a much greater cut than the 28% emissions reduction modelled in the Finkel Review if Australia is to meet its overall climate target for 2030.</p>
<p>When Australia’s energy ministers <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/fears-finkel-review-reliability-obligations-will-slowdown-renewable-projects-20170609-gwo7se.html">meet this Friday</a> to discuss (among other things) the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/finkel-review-38844">Finkel Review</a> released last month, they will hopefully consider its recommendations for the electricity sector in the broader context of developing a long-term national climate policy.</p>
<p>According to our analysis, the electricity sector should cut emissions by at least 45% by 2030, as part of a move towards net zero emissions by 2050. This is well beyond current government policies, but is crucial if Australia is to meet its climate obligations in an economically responsible way.</p>
<h2>Climate commitments</h2>
<p>The federal government has <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931">agreed to cut emissions by 26-28% on 2005 levels by 2030</a>. As a signatory to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris climate agreement</a>, Australia has also committed to global action to limit global warming to well below 2°C – and as a developed nation, that means reaching net zero emissions across the whole economy by about 2050.</p>
<p>Our analysis suggests that the electricity sector will need do a larger share than other sectors of the economy, because it has more technical potential to do so and can support emissions reductions in other sectors. In practice, reaching net zero emissions means shifting from coal and other fossil fuels to zero- or near-zero-carbon energy sources such as renewable electricity and bioenergy. Coal or gas will only be feasible if fitted with <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/carbon-capture-and-storage-1526">carbon capture and storage</a>. Achieving near zero-emissions electricity is a key step in the transition to a net zero-emissions economy, not least because of the future importance of electrically powered transport.</p>
<p>The good news is that our <a href="https://climateworks.com.au/project/national-projects/pathways-deep-decarbonisation-2050-how-australia-can-prosper-low-carbon">previous research</a> has shown that this is achievable with existing technologies, thanks to Australia’s rich renewable resources. </p>
<p>CSIRO and Energy Networks Australia have also shown that the electricity sector can reach zero emissions by 2050 while still maintaining security and reliability, and that this will actually <a href="http://www.energynetworks.com.au/sites/default/files/entr_final_report_web.pdf">save households an estimated A$414 a year compared with business as usual</a>.</p>
<h2>The 2030 target matters</h2>
<p>Cutting emissions faster now will make it easier and less economically disruptive to reach net zero by 2050. Yet the latest government emissions projections forecast that Australia’s emissions will grow by 9% by the end of the next decade, from <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/c2af8dab-b4cf-40a4-85bc-3a09657d9284/files/nggi-quarterly-update-december-2016.pdf">543 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) in 2016</a> to <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/9437fe27-64f4-4d16-b3f1-4e03c2f7b0d7/files/aust-emissions-projections-2016.pdf">592Mt CO2e in 2030</a>. </p>
<p>If the impact of existing policies (such as the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-energy-productivity-plan">National Energy Productivity Plan</a>, the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/protection/ozone/legislation/opsggm-review/hfc-%20phase-down-faqs">phase-down of hydroflurocarbon emissions</a>, and state renewable energy targets) are taken into account in the projections, emissions could drop to 531Mt CO2e in 2030. This still leaves an 82-megatonne gap to reach even the minimum emissions reduction target of 26% percent below 2005 levels.</p>
<h2>Time to do more</h2>
<p>Our report, <a href="https://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/publications/cwa_power_up_report_final_12_jul.pdf">Power Up: Australia’s electricity sector can and should do more to deliver on our climate commitments</a> shows that Australia’s electricity sector can cut emissions by up to 60% below 2005 levels by 2030. This is nearly six times more carbon reduction than is expected to be delivered by current policies, and could by itself fill the whole emissions reduction gap.</p>
<p>However, should the electricity sector only make a 28% reduction in its emissions, in line with the Finkel analysis, then it would only reduce emissions by 6Mt CO2e beyond current policies, leaving most of the effort of reducing emissions to other sectors such as buildings, transport, industry, waste and land management, where cutting carbon is likely to be significantly more expensive. </p>
<p>To reach this level of emissions reductions in the land sector, for instance, we would need to increase forest planting by more than three times the amount estimated to be delivered by the federal government’s <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">Emission Reduction Fund</a> in 2018, its peak year.</p>
<p>In its defence, the Finkel Review focused exclusively on the electricity sector and its analysis did not look at the impact that limited change in this sector would have on the required effort from other parts of the economy.</p>
<p>We therefore modelled various other scenarios, including one in which the share of renewables increases from 40% to 50% by 2030. This could enable the electricity sector to achieve double the carbon reductions delivered by efforts in line with the Finkel review. </p>
<p>Our third and fourth scenarios are aimed at meeting the <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/targets-and-progress-review-3">more ambitious emissions target range recommended by the Climate Change Authority</a>, corresponding to a more progressive and therefore economically responsible trajectory towards net zero emissions. This requires Australia achieving a 45-60% reduction in emissions from the electricity sector by 2030.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177813/original/file-20170712-15626-bsmx79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Expected emissions reductions by 2030 (in megatonnes CO₂ equivalent) in four different policy areas under four different electricity scenarios.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ClimateWorks Australia</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The long view</h2>
<p>Like the Finkel Review, our report recommends that the federal government defines a specific emissions-reduction policy for the electricity sector, which in Finkel’s case was the Clean Energy Target. This will help to ensure a smooth shift to reliable, affordable, low-carbon energy.</p>
<p>Our report outlines the key principles that Australian governments need to consider in order to make effective decisions on climate change policy, with a view to achieving net zero emissions by mid-century.</p>
<p>These include providing clear long-term direction to support the industry’s investment decisions, and ensuring that decision-making to 2030 is compatible with reaching net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Climate policy should also be flexible so that it can be scaled up to meet future targets and allow a range of solutions, including the uptake of emerging technologies to make the transition faster and cheaper.</p>
<p>Given that net zero emissions is the ultimate goal, we need to move faster and achieve greater emissions reductions by 2030 to help deliver a fully decarbonised electricity system, on time and on budget.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amandine Denis-Ryan receives funding from federal and state government, as well as businesses, for specific analysis conducted for them. ClimateWorks Australia is an independent organisation, funded in majority through philanthropy.</span></em></p>A new analysis by ClimateWorks Australia says that the electricity sector needs to do far more to cut its carbon emissions than will be delivered by current policies.Amandine Denis-Ryan, Head of Research, ClimateWorks Australia, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/693342016-11-24T19:24:56Z2016-11-24T19:24:56Z2050 climate targets: nations are playing the long game in fighting global warming<p>While much of the media focus at <a href="https://theconversation.com/marrakech-climate-talks-produced-defiance-towards-trump-but-little-else-69056">this month’s climate meeting in Marrakech</a> (COP22) was on US President-elect Donald Trump, there were signs that several countries have begun the long-term planning needed to avoid dangerous climate change.</p>
<p>During the conference, four countries – Germany, Canada, Mexico and the United States – presented their 2050 climate plans. Under Article 4 of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Climate Change Agreement</a>, all countries are asked to prepare mid-century, long-term strategies to bring greenhouse gas emissions down to low levels.</p>
<p>A common theme from COP22 was the emphasis on long-term strategies to help guide short-term actions. When launching the <a href="http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/high-level-climate-champions-launch-2050-pathways-platform/">2050 Pathways Platform</a>, Laurence Tubiana, the outgoing French high-level climate champion, stated that if you don’t have a plan for the long term, you can’t know what a good decision is today.</p>
<h2>Climate change in 2050</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/focus/long-term_strategies/application/pdf/161114_climate_action_plan_2050_en_bf.pdf">German Climate Action Plan 2050</a>, approved by the German cabinet this month, foreshadows a reduction in greenhouse gases of up to 95% below 1990 levels by 2050. It covers energy, buildings, transport, industry, agriculture and land use, and sets specific milestones and targets for each sector.</p>
<p>As part of its plan, the German government will set up a commission to work with industry and trade unions on the energy transition to 2050. The commission will consider economic development, structural change and social compatibility to accompany climate action. Australia could also consider such an approach to achieve a just transition to a net zero carbon economy.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/files/focus/long-term_strategies/application/pdf/mid_century_strategy_report-final_red.pdf">United States Mid-Century Strategy</a> sets out several different pathways by which the United States can cut emissions by at least 80% below 2005 levels by 2050 while maintaining a thriving economy. The pathways portray a transformation to a low-carbon energy system using solar, wind, nuclear, hydro and carbon capture. </p>
<p>Under the plan, nearly all fossil fuel plants without carbon capture are to be phased out by 2050. The plan also shows that the land sector in the United States could sequester 23-45% of economy-wide emissions in 2050 by expanding forests and increasing the carbon stored in croplands and grasslands.</p>
<p>Canada’s long-term plan aims to reduce emissions by 80% or more below 2005 levels by 2050. Mexico will reduce its emissions by 50% from 2000 levels. Both plans outline detailed pathways for achieving these emissions reductions.</p>
<p>To support countries, states, cities and businesses to prepare long-term low-emission plans, the 2050 pathways platform initiative was launched at Marrakech. Already 22 countries have started to formulate 2050 plans, including China and India, as have many states, cities and businesses.</p>
<h2>New policies and technology</h2>
<p>Developing a long-term plan helps identify the policy measures and technological advancements that are needed now. To this end, Marrakech also hosted the first <a href="http://unsdsn.org/news/2016/05/05/cop22-low-emissions-solutions-conference-will-bring-together-cities-government-and-business-to-scale-up-climate-solutions/">Low-Emission Solutions Conference</a> associated with a climate congress. The conference brought together technical experts, scientists, academics, business and politicians to brainstorm and exchange information about the technological and policy pathways needed to reach net zero carbon emissions.</p>
<p>The Sustainable Development Solutions Network director, Professor Jeff Sachs, told the conference that we need more than political will to make this transition. </p>
<p>We need to mobilise scientists, engineers and experts to identify what the new energy and economic system will look like and to devise pathways to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-can-stop-greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-2050-heres-how-44175">net zero carbon economy</a>. This will help businesses to identify risks and opportunities and help governments not to waste money on technologies that are not compatible with the long-term goal.</p>
<h2>The four pillars of decarbonisation</h2>
<p>The conference highlighted the four basic elements of deep decarbonisation. These also underpin the <a href="http://climateworksaustralia.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/climateworks_pdd2050_initialreport_20140923.pdf">Australian Deep Decarbonisation Pathway Plan</a> developed by ClimateWorks and ANU.</p>
<p>First, there needs to be ambitious energy efficiency across the economy. This includes “smart grid” technologies, green buildings and greater fuel economy in vehicles.</p>
<p>Second, we need zero-carbon electricity supplied by renewables or a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage. The contributions of each of these to the energy mix will depend on country circumstances and on whether carbon capture can be made commercial.</p>
<p>Third, we need a shift to electrification using zero-carbon electricity. This means using electricity to power vehicles and switching from gas to electricity in homes.</p>
<p>Finally, non-energy emissions are reduced by storing more carbon in forests and land as well as reducing methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases from agriculture, waste and industry.</p>
<p>The Australian government has committed to review its climate policies next year and to consider a long-term emissions reduction target. This is an opportunity for Australia to use these four elements of deep decarbonisation and join other countries in preparing a 2050 deep decarbonisation plan.</p>
<p>Already, South Australia, Victoria, NSW and the ACT have pledged a target of zero net emissions by 2050, with South Australia and the ACT signing the UN’s <a href="http://under2mou.org/">Under 2MOU</a> (a memorandum between states and regions to keep global warming below 2°C). A number of states, including Queensland, have also set ambitious renewable energy targets.</p>
<p>2050 may seem a long way off in the short time frame that dominates so much of modern politics. By 2050 Donald Trump will be 104 and presumably will exert limited influence over global politics. </p>
<p>However, it is worth noting that the children entering our schools next February will still be in their thirties in 2050. They will have a real interest in ensuring that we start planning for their future and taking action now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69334/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Thwaites is Chair of Monash Sustainable Development Institute and ClimateWorks Australia. These organisations receive funding from governments, business and from philanthropic foundations including the Myer Foundation, the Ian Potter Foundation and the Harold Mitchell Foundation. John Thwaites is a global Co-Chair of the Leadership Council of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>ClimateWorks is funded by philanthropy through The Myer Foundation with Monash University. ClimateWorks Australia also periodically conducts research with funding from Federal, State and local governments and from private companies; all our work is focused on supporting strong emissions reductions in Australia. The author has no other relevant affiliations</span></em></p>Countries have started announcing strategies to cut greenhouse gases over the next 35 years.John Thwaites, Chair, Monash Sustainability Institute & ClimateWorks Australia, Monash UniversityScott Ferraro, Head of Implementation, ClimateWorks Australia, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/405332015-04-21T20:12:38Z2015-04-21T20:12:38ZReport calls for emissions cuts, but plays down the opportunities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78742/original/image-20150421-9051-1mmyqez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C2%2C1780%2C1157&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Scaling back coalmining is one way Australia could make big progress towards its emissions targets.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ACSIRO_ScienceImage_174_A_Coal_Dredge.jpg">CSIRO/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia should cut greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 2000 levels by 2025, according to a <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/prod.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/files/reviews/ret/2015draft/Australia%27s%20future%20emissions%20reduction%20targets%281%29.pdf">draft recommendation</a> released by the Climate Change Authority today. </p>
<p>Australia will need to put a solid emissions target for 2025 on the table for international credibility on climate change. The Authority’s recommendation is justified on principle but will likely be unacceptable to the government. </p>
<p>Meanwhile the Authority gives surprisingly little heed to the opportunities for Australia of a low-emissions economy, instead highlighting international emissions trading. </p>
<h1>The post-2020 target game</h1>
<p>Under the United Nations climate negotiations, all countries are called on to submit an emissions commitment for the period after 2020 in the coming months. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-2015-climate-summit-countries-targets-beyond-2020-38427">United States, European Union and some other countries have already announced their targets</a> and China has announced the outlines of its contribution. </p>
<p>What would it mean for Australia to pull its weight? The Climate Change Authority, the independent statutory body to advise on emissions targets and policies, factored three aspects into its recommendation today: Australia’s relative capacity to afford action to reduce emissions, the nation’s responsibility to do so, and the effort required to meet the target. </p>
<p>Australia is right up at the top end of per person income, indicating strong capacity to act. </p>
<p>It is similar for responsibility: Australia emits the highest amount of greenhouse gases per person among the major developed countries. And add self-interest: as a country that is highly vulnerable to climate change, Australia has much to gain from global action.</p>
<h1>How hard is it to cut emissions in Australia?</h1>
<p>That leaves the question of effort. As Australia’s Ambassador for the Environment, Peter Woolcott, pointed out at a recent <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/events/5318/australias-post-2020-emissions-target">public forum at ANU Crawford School</a>, views will diverge about “what Australia can realistically achieve given its unique national circumstances and characteristics, including its resource endowment, and economic and population growth”. </p>
<p>It is a fair guess that the government will point to Australia’s ample <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/13/tony-abbott-says-coal-is-good-for-humanity-while-opening-mine">endowment with fossil fuels</a>, relatively high population growth and the expectation of continued economic growth as justifications for going for a lower target than other countries. </p>
<p>The recommended 30% target translates into large reductions in per capita emissions and in the emissions intensity of Australia’s GDP. But as the Authority’s report shows (in Figure 3 of its report, see below), Australia’s per capita emissions and emissions intensity at 2025 would still be much higher than those of the United States and more than twice Europe’s, under their respective targets. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78734/original/image-20150421-9038-1cjh127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78734/original/image-20150421-9038-1cjh127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78734/original/image-20150421-9038-1cjh127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78734/original/image-20150421-9038-1cjh127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78734/original/image-20150421-9038-1cjh127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78734/original/image-20150421-9038-1cjh127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78734/original/image-20150421-9038-1cjh127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78734/original/image-20150421-9038-1cjh127.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Change Authority</span></span>
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<p>As the world gradually turns away from emissions-intensive development, the national-interest case for such reductions strengthens.</p>
<h2>The coal question</h2>
<p>What about resource endowment, specifically the abundance of coal in Australia? </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/carbon-reduction-in-asia-will-punch/6408204">resources boom</a> is coming to a halt, and growth in mining and energy extraction will be slower than expected.</p>
<p>Energy use and emissions in resource industries will grow more slowly or tail off. The government’s most recent <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-projections">projections</a> of slower underlying emissions growth bear this out. </p>
<p>And most importantly, as a country with high coal use and relatively low energy efficiency, Australia has much more room to manoeuvre than other countries that do not rely so much on coal or where energy productivity is already much higher. Phase out coal and stop wasting energy, and we get big reductions in emissions. </p>
<p>A solid international commitment underpinned by clever policy could create many new opportunities for economic growth.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, it is difficult to conceive that the government will decide on a target that is stronger in nominal terms than that of the United States. </p>
<h1>Australia can cut emissions deeply, cheaply, with benefits</h1>
<p>That is not to say that stronger cuts are out of reach, either technically or economically. </p>
<p>Our recent study with ClimateWorks Australia on <a href="http://www.climateworksaustralia.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/climateworks_pdd2050_initialreport_20140923.pdf">Deep Decarbonisation Pathways</a>, which built on modelling by CSIRO and Victoria University, showed that Australia can cut emissions deeply and do so while maintaining strong economic growth. </p>
<p>The scenario gets Australia’s net national emissions to zero by 2050. That is on the basis of zero-carbon electricity supply drawing on Australia’s ample endowment and technical potential for renewables, shift from direct fuel use to electricity, and economically valuable improvements in energy efficiency and industrial processes.</p>
<p>Remaining emissions – many of them from agriculture and mining for export – are fully offset by carbon plantations. </p>
<p>For 2025, the modelling shows a one-third cut below year 2000 levels, and a halving to 2030. The estimated economic costs are modest and major changes in Australia’s economic structure would be unlikely as a result. </p>
<p>Reviewing the major reports produced over the last eight years in a <a href="http://www.wwf.org.au/?13220/Media-release-for-Emissions-report">report</a> for WWF Australia released yesterday, we found that the estimated costs of future emissions reductions in Australia fell in every successive modelling exercise. </p>
<p>A major reason is that the outlook for many zero-carbon technologies keeps improving and costs are falling. For example, the cost of solar cell power stations is now already only about half what the Australian Treasury projected it to be in the year 2030 in modelling done in 2008.</p>
<p>Add to that co-benefits from going to low-carbon technologies including less local pollution, <a href="http://www.vivideconomics.com/publications/energy-efficiency-and-economic-growth">economy-wide productivity benefits from energy efficiency</a>, and the possibility for Australia to gain a new comparative advantage in low-carbon industries of the future.</p>
<h1>Trading makes life easy – and might miss part of the point</h1>
<p>But the Climate Change Authority does not even call for most of the actual emissions reductions to be made in Australia. It sees international trading in emissions units as a legitimate and possibly large part of the overall contribution. </p>
<p>Modelling for its earlier <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/targets-and-progress-review-3">report</a> has purchases of international units playing a decisive part in meeting future reduction targets. </p>
<p>As long as it is assured that such trading amounts to actual investment in emissions reductions in other countries where cuts can be achieved at lower cost, this is sensible. </p>
<p>But if international trade is used to avoid domestic transition towards a cleaner economy, this would mean missing out on broader benefits. </p>
<h1>Pie in the sky, yet really not so bold</h1>
<p>And so the Climate Change Authority’s recommendations are simultaneously more ambitious than the government will be prepared to accept, and not so ambitious by way of assuming that international emissions trading may mean no deep emissions cuts domestically. </p>
<p>At the end of the day, the central issue is not what number government picks, but what steps will be taken towards a lower-emissions economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo is chief investigator of current projects at ANU funded by the Australian government and WWF Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Howard Bamsey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Climate Change Authority has recommended Australia cut greenhouse gas emissions 30% below 2000 levels by 2025. While sensible, the government is unlikely to accept, and the target misses bigger opportunities to cut emissions.Frank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Australian National UniversityHoward Bamsey, Adjunct Professor, Regulatory institutions Network, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/290782014-07-11T04:09:57Z2014-07-11T04:09:57ZKeeping our eyes on the ball is the only way to hit our climate target<p>Kicking goals is a whole lot easier when you’re running hard, with a clear line of vision. But amid so much <a href="https://theconversation.com/everyone-says-they-want-economic-reforms-but-the-senate-is-about-to-kill-a-big-one-28983">backpassing and confusion on climate policy in Australia</a>, it could be easy to lose sight of what we’re really shooting for. For those looking for some perspective on <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-abbott-government-feels-the-pain-from-pups-with-teeth-29040">this week’s events in Parliament</a>, a new report for the United Nations shows the first steps and possible stumbling blocks ahead for Australia and 14 other major climate players to achieve the crucial goal of deep emissions cuts by mid-century.</p>
<p>For Australia to play our part, it would mean that by 2050 we had a power sector producing almost entirely emissions-free electricity; a transport system running on electricity and biogas; and buildings and industry with hugely improved energy efficiency. Our remaining emissions – including from mining and agriculture for export – would be offset by carbon farming.</p>
<p>Those are just some of the options we have; in fact, as <a href="http://unsdsn.org/what-we-do/deep-decarbonization-pathways/">our research shows</a>, Australia is spoilt for choice with low-carbon options.</p>
<h2>The global challenge ahead</h2>
<p>Through the <a href="http://unsdsn.org/what-we-do/deep-decarbonization-pathways/">Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project</a>, 15 countries are setting out how their economies can shed the carbon and keep growing their economies. The <a href="http://unsdsn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/DDPP_interim_2014_report.pdf">interim report</a> was by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and internationally renowned economist Jeff Sachs <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=48225#.U78tovmSx8H">in New York this week</a>. In September, this report will be presented to world leaders at the <a href="http://summit.sites.unicnetwork.org/">UN Climate Summit</a> in New York, where more detailed national reports – including one for Australia – will also be released.</p>
<p>It is a global first that national teams of local experts have prepared detailed analyses of how each country could make deep cuts to carbon in its energy and industrial systems. For most of the 15 countries, the scenarios are more ambitious than what has been modelled in detail by national teams before. It includes not just the United States, Europe, Australia and other rich countries, but also China, India, Brazil and other rapidly growing countries.</p>
<p>Our aim is to show how the world can still limit global warming to a maximum temperature rise of 2°C above pre-industrial levels – and ideally lower – as almost 200 countries including Australia committed to do <a href="https://unfccc.int/meetings/cancun_nov_2010/meeting/6266.php">at the 2010 Cancun climate summit</a>, so that we could avoid the worst of climate change risks and impacts. </p>
<p>That means reducing emissions by around half by 2050, even while tripling the size of the global economic cake. And this new analysis of technology options, energy systems and economies shows that can be done.</p>
<h2>How the US, China and Australia can lead from the front</h2>
<p>All 15 national teams have found that they could achieve a near-zero carbon economy while sustaining economic growth. The interim results show that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow three and a half fold by 2050 across the 15 countries, while at the same time achieving a 45% decrease in total CO<sub>2</sub>-energy emissions, and a 56% decrease in emissions per capita. </p>
<p>The solutions differ according to countries’ characteristics, but all show common pillars of great increases in energy efficiency across the economy, a nearly carbon free power system, and switching to low carbon energy sources in transport, buildings and industry.
For example, the US report shows energy emissions reduce by 85% while GDP nearly doubles. Its power system in 2050 is 40% renewables, 30% nuclear and 30% <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/carbon-capture-and-storage">carbon capture and storage</a> (CCS) with coal and gas power stations, while oil use is reduced by 88% between 2010 and 2050. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53572/original/zsb56xrn-1405039843.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53572/original/zsb56xrn-1405039843.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53572/original/zsb56xrn-1405039843.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53572/original/zsb56xrn-1405039843.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53572/original/zsb56xrn-1405039843.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53572/original/zsb56xrn-1405039843.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53572/original/zsb56xrn-1405039843.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53572/original/zsb56xrn-1405039843.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=455&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How greenhouse emissions from energy would need to change in the 15 countries between now and 2050.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://unsdsn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/DDPP_interim_2014_report.pdf">Pathways to Deep Decarbonization: interim report, p.28</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>China’s report shows a decarbonised electricity system, even while electricity demand more than doubles, through use of solar, wind, hydro, nuclear and CCS on coal and gas. China’s report sets out a future where coal is only 20% of China’s total primary energy consumption in 2050, compared to about 70% in 2010, and 90% of coal plants have CCS. </p>
<p>In addition, the output of cement and crude steel are anticipated to peak by 2020. China’s team estimates a ten-fold increase in travel but shows this can be met with only 10% of regular vehicles using petrol or diesel; the rest are electric cars and hybrids, or use fuel cell or biofuels.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53574/original/5h56jvm2-1405040217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53574/original/5h56jvm2-1405040217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53574/original/5h56jvm2-1405040217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53574/original/5h56jvm2-1405040217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53574/original/5h56jvm2-1405040217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53574/original/5h56jvm2-1405040217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53574/original/5h56jvm2-1405040217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53574/original/5h56jvm2-1405040217.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Powering on differently: the proposed electricity mix in 2050.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://unsdsn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/DDPP_interim_2014_report.pdf">Pathways to Deep Decarbonization: interim report, p.33</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australia has more renewable energy options than most countries, and can achieve near-zero carbon electricity through renewables alone, or alternatively could introduce some CCS or nuclear in the mix. As electricity is decarbonised, electricity can replace petrol and gas in vehicles and buildings and some industry processes. Remaining fossil fuel use can be shifted to bioenergy. </p>
<p>Australia’s <a href="http://unsdsn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/DDPP_interim_2014_report.pdf">chapter in the report (read from p.42)</a> sets out a 2050 pathway with a 71% reduction in CO2 emissions from energy, while the economy grows by almost 150%. Through additional land-based carbon sequestration, it would keep Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions within the 2°C budget identified by Australia’s <a href="http://climatechangeauthority.gov.au/">Climate Change Authority</a>.</p>
<p>Decarbonisation would mean that the energy system and some aspects of land management look quite different from what they would under a high-carbon scenario. But for every declining technology there are new opportunities arising, and most of the economy would simply motor on. Cleaning up the world’s energy system does not stand in the way of economic prosperity, including for the developing countries.</p>
<h2>What’s standing in our way?</h2>
<p>However, some key technologies that are critical for deep decarbonisation in all countries’ pathways are not yet technically mature or economically competitive. These include: </p>
<ul>
<li>Advanced energy storage, flexible load management, and integrated portfolio design for balancing power systems with high penetrations of variable renewable energy (such as wind and solar)</li>
<li>Technically reliable and economically affordable carbon capture and storage technology, along with further development of advanced renewable energy technologies</li>
<li>Very high performance appliances, controls, and materials for buildings</li>
<li>Zero-emissions vehicles with adequate range, notably battery electric or fuel cell light-duty vehicles</li>
<li>Sustainable biofuels or synthesised fuels for air and marine transport.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53571/original/b4hqj2km-1405039669.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53571/original/b4hqj2km-1405039669.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53571/original/b4hqj2km-1405039669.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53571/original/b4hqj2km-1405039669.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53571/original/b4hqj2km-1405039669.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53571/original/b4hqj2km-1405039669.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53571/original/b4hqj2km-1405039669.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53571/original/b4hqj2km-1405039669.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Key technologies that still need to be widely deployed to achieve the deep emission cuts outlined in the report.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://unsdsn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/DDPP_interim_2014_report.pdf">Pathways to Deep Decarbonization: interim report, p.24</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To accelerate these, there needs to be a reliable policy framework that gives economic incentives for investment in lower-emission options, and systematic support for research and development where the private sector won’t provide it. </p>
<p>In Australia we have been going forward on that count in recent years. But now – with so much policy uncertainty clouding the future of <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/green-energy-warns-against-ret-flipflop/story-e6frg6n6-1226982269655">billions of dollars in investment in renewable energy</a> and other emissions-saving projects – we run the risk of scoring an own goal.</p>
<h2>Get in the game</h2>
<p>Meanwhile around the rest of the world, progress marches on. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53582/original/bf24yzqn-1405041359.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53582/original/bf24yzqn-1405041359.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53582/original/bf24yzqn-1405041359.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53582/original/bf24yzqn-1405041359.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53582/original/bf24yzqn-1405041359.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53582/original/bf24yzqn-1405041359.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53582/original/bf24yzqn-1405041359.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The BMW i3.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>BMW plans to start selling its <a href="http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/29/bmw-unveils-i3-electric-car/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0">i3 electric car</a> in China in September. Volkswagen will unveil more than 15 electrified models in China by 2018. And Hyundai, Toyota and Honda will be marketing hydrogen vehicles next year to drivers in California, Japan, Korea and Europe.</p>
<p>Statoil and Statkraft are building a <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFWEB00P3120140701">$US2.6 billion offshore wind farm</a> off the UK coast. Drax, Alstom and BOC have been awarded 300 million Euros to build a 426 megawatt carbon capture and storage power plant in North Yorkshire, UK, to power over 630,000 homes and capture 90% of its CO<sub>2</sub> with CCS from the outset. </p>
<p>There’s a lot that we can do right now. But we don’t have time to waste. </p>
<p>Just as you do when aiming for sporting success, you start with a goal, you create a long-term plan for how to achieve it, and then you break that down into smaller, achievable steps towards success. That’s what this <a href="http://unsdsn.org/what-we-do/deep-decarbonization-pathways/">Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project</a> is all about.</p>
<p>Keeping below 2°C of global warming is essential to protect human well-being. Let’s keep our eye on the ball and work as a team to get it done.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/29078/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>ClimateWorks Australia and ANU lead the Australian component of the United Nations' initiative, ‘Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project’. ClimateWorks and ANU have not received any UN funding, but are seeking independent sponsorship for the research. ClimateWorks is funded by philanthropy through the Myer Foundation with Monash University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo is in charge of grant funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian government. ClimateWorks Australia and ANU lead the Australian component of the UN ‘Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project’.</span></em></p>Kicking goals is a whole lot easier when you’re running hard, with a clear line of vision. But amid so much backpassing and confusion on climate policy in Australia, it could be easy to lose sight of what…Anna Skarbek, Executive Director at ClimateWorks Australia, Monash UniversityFrank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.