tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/dwight-eisenhower-13356/articlesDwight Eisenhower – The Conversation2023-12-08T15:25:48Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193472023-12-08T15:25:48Z2023-12-08T15:25:48ZEisenhower’s Atoms for Peace speech on nuclear dangers has important lessons even after 70 years<p>Seventy years ago, on December 8 1953, US president Dwight D. Eisenhower delivered a <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">speech</a> to the United Nations general assembly, setting out his concerns about “atomic warfare”. </p>
<p>In the speech, later known as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxGSfOd1Dpc">Atoms for Peace</a>, he outlined a plan for new forms of international cooperation around nuclear technology, calling for “lasting peace for all nations, and happiness and well-being for all men”.</p>
<p>In 2023, nuclear technology has been very much in the headlines, from the potential of nuclear <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9825/">threats</a> during the war in Ukraine to <a href="https://theconversation.com/oppenheimer-the-actor-the-curious-1946-film-atomic-power-featuring-the-scientist-as-himself-210498">cinematically capturing</a> the history behind the first atomic bomb in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/jul/22/oppenheimer-review-christopher-nolan-volatile-biopic-is-a-towering-achievement-cillian-murphy">Oppenheimer</a>. </p>
<p>The speech is largely forgotten but it fundamentally shaped the nuclear world we live in today, and remains highly relevant to how decision-makers engage with such cross-border developments as <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/19/ai-regulation-development-us-china-competition-technology/">generative AI</a>. For all their differences, when they were created both nuclear reactors and AI represented <a href="https://brandoncornett.medium.com/6-unsettling-similarities-between-ai-and-nuclear-weapons-932277f9f59e">newly emerging technologies</a> that “spurred a global race for dominance”, fundamentally challenging existing systems and with potential for both peaceful and military uses. </p>
<h2>Why the speech happened</h2>
<p>In 1953, eight years after the second world war, an armistice concluded the <a href="https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/research/online-documents/korean-war">Korean War</a> (1950-1953) but the wider cold war was characterised by an accelerating nuclear arms race. US nuclear technology was <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">under tight control</a>, restricting any exports, even to wartime allies. </p>
<p>Nuclear reactors mainly created fuel for warheads. The <a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/outline-history-of-nuclear-energy.aspx#:%7E:text=The%20PWR%20used%20enriched%20uranium,Nautilus%2C%20was%20launched%20in%201954.">first power plants</a> and first nuclear submarines were only just being constructed.</p>
<p>Eisenhower’s speech, and the US <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Lavoy">Atoms for Peace</a> programme that followed, completely changed this, proposing a sharing of technology and nuclear material with different countries. There was <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">wide dissemination</a> of Eisenhower’s words beyond the UN. </p>
<p>Hundreds of thousands of pamphlets of the speech were sent out, printed in ten languages. US and foreign media were inundated with <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">information and advertising</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">US president Eisenhower gave a speech about international cooperation around nuclear power in 1953.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Public spread of ideas</h2>
<p>One of the speech’s public legacies was encouraging wider public engagement with the idea of what “nuclear” actually was. This inspired new popular culture and educational materials promoting ideas of atomic-powered futures, such as the iconic Walt Disney 1956 <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11191-021-00284-1">science book</a> and TV programme <a href="https://expo.uoregon.edu/spotlight/tomorrows-scientists/feature/our-friend-the-atom">Our Friend the Atom</a>. </p>
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<p>Eisenhower’s speech called for a UN-based International Atomic Energy Agency (<a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/overview/history#:%7E:text=The%20Agency's%20genesis%20was%20U.S.,the%20International%20Atomic%20Energy%20Agency.">IAEA</a>), eventually founded in 1957, promoting peaceful nuclear use while discouraging weapons proliferation. It remains a crucial international entity in nuclear verification, nuclear safety, and promotion of peaceful uses of <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/11/06/why-does-iaea-do-what-it-does-pub-74689">nuclear technology</a>, most recently through activities such as monitoring the safety of the <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-200-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine">Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant</a> during the Ukraine war. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.neimagazine.com/features/feature60-years-of-atoms-for-peace-4164653/">Paradoxically</a>, however, Atoms for Peace also had opposite effects. The reactors and technical expertise, supplied for civilian energy or research, provided crucial foundations for proliferation. </p>
<p>The tools and knowledge were repurposed by some countries to develop their own nuclear weapons, including, in the first instance, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">India and Pakistan</a>. Israel is <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9075/">widely believed</a> to have benefited, although it continues to deny it has nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>One of the speech’s most visible impacts was in signalling, both to domestic and international audiences, a significant change in US policy towards supplying other nations with nuclear science. </p>
<p>It paved the way for the restrictive <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Lavoy">US Atomic Energy Act to be revised</a> the following year, to allow sharing of technology and building of reactors in different countries. This significantly increased global development of nuclear power and nuclear research in areas from <a href="https://www.neimagazine.com/features/feature60-years-of-atoms-for-peace-4164653/">agriculture to medicine</a>.</p>
<p>However, it’s worth remembering that Atoms for Peace took place in parallel with a wider US cold war strategy of pursuing nuclear superiority. Just over a month before his UN speech, Eisenhower approved a significant expansion in America’s nuclear arsenal. </p>
<p>Warhead numbers increased from around <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0096340213501363">1,100 to more than 18,000</a> during his presidency. He also considered the potential use of nuclear weapons in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1984/06/08/world/us-papers-tell-of-53-policy-to-use-a-bomb-in-korea.html">conventional conflicts</a>. </p>
<h2>Peaceful shared plans</h2>
<p>Eisenhower also tried to set up an international <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">uranium bank</a>, with US and Soviet joint contributions from their stockpiles of “normal uranium and <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">fissionable materials</a>”. These would be contributed to a pool, shared with other countries for peaceful purposes, both to help restrict the arms race and “provide abundant electrical energy in the power-starved <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">areas of the world</a>”.</p>
<p>However, this bank was <a href="https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/neff.pdf">never created</a>, partly because of Soviet concerns that it would continue to allow US leadership of nuclear weapons technology. Instead, bilateral agreements were struck to supply nuclear energy and materials.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, spreading “peaceful” technology, supplying nuclear reactors and material for energy and civil research, became a cold war and commercial “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00076791.2020.1845316">weapon</a>”, aiming to tie uranium and technology exports to fulfilling conditions or continued dependence on the selling countries to supply fuel.</p>
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<p>Ironically, this echoed one US fear which had helped motivate Atoms for Peace: the prospect of the <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Lavoy">Soviet Union sharing nuclear energy</a> as a way of influencing other countries and creating alliances.</p>
<p>These developments are particular relevant today. Russian attacks on Ukraine’s <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/17/what-comes-after-russia-s-attack-on-ukrainian-nuclear-power-station-pub-86667">nuclear power plants</a> during the current war have received much attention, but what is less well known is Russia’s nuclear energy empire, with contracts and construction spanning 54 countries.</p>
<p>This has remained “largely below the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-023-01228-5">sanctions radar</a>”, while remaining a significant source of international influence for Russia. </p>
<h2>Nuclear’s reach today</h2>
<p>As of <a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx">November 2023</a>, approximately 10% of the world’s energy was supplied from more than 400 nuclear reactors, while 40 million nuclear medical procedures are <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/house-documents/parliament-42/session-2/2021-11-02/hansard-1">performed each year</a>, using radioactive materials to diagnose or treat different diseases.</p>
<p>In 2023, policymakers continue grappling with related nuclear issues, whether proposals for new small modular <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-small-nuclear-reactors-the-solution-to-canadas-net-zero-ambitions-217354">nuclear reactors</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/moon-rolls-royce-nuclear-reactor-concept-unveiled">nuclear power in space</a>, debates around <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/role-nuclear-power-energy-mix-reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions/">potential for nuclear power</a> in addressing climate change or fears of <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2023/08/29/a-new-nuclear-arms-race-looms">new nuclear arms races</a>. </p>
<p>Faced with such challenges, <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">Eisenhower’s words</a>: “If a danger exists in the world, it is a danger shared by all; and equally, that if hope exists in the mind of one nation, that hope should be shared by all” seem as relevant today, as they did in 1953.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Noël Peacock is a Lecturer in History and War studies, and Co-Director of the Games and Gaming Lab at the University of Glasgow.</span></em></p>A climate of fear about international war inspired Eisenhower’s Atoms of Peace speech in 1953, his words about global peace seem relevant to global peace today.Timothy Noël Peacock, Lecturer in History, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2118562023-08-22T12:26:51Z2023-08-22T12:26:51ZFirst Republican debate set to kick off without Trump – but with the potential to direct the GOP’s foreign policy stance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544022/original/file-20230822-17-xf9lph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C0%2C8206%2C5487&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">GOP candidates will likely debate whether the US should continue to pour support into Ukraine's effort to defeat Russia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ukrainian-armored-vehicles-maneuver-and-fire-their-30mm-news-photo/1485528240?adppopup=true">Scott Peterson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Republican presidential hopefuls take the stage in Milwaukee on Aug. 23, 2023, for the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_debates,_2024">first debate of the 2024 campaign season</a>, attention will center on how the candidates position themselves <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/08/20/1194905052/republican-presidential-candidates-avoid-speaking-on-trump-at-a-party-conference">vis-à-vis former President Donald Trump</a> and his four criminal indictments. </p>
<p>What candidates say about foreign policy is another critical issue. </p>
<p>Republican leaders are sharply divided over how the United States should position itself in the world. While some <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/what-is-a-maga-republican/">Trump supporters</a> are pressing for the U.S. to pull back from world affairs, more traditional Republicans are calling for robust international engagement.</p>
<p>Ever since the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s, most Republican leaders have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/28/politics/gop-foreign-policy-debate-2024/index.html">supported an active U.S.</a> role in the world. This <a href="https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/30892">internationalist approach</a> was first fueled by Eisenhower’s view that the U.S. needed strong military and diplomatic alliances during the Cold War. </p>
<p>In my own <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=W1MuqgYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">research on U.S. foreign policy</a>, I have found that most Republican politicians continued to support international engagement after the Cold War ended in 1991. </p>
<p>From former Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush to current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, the prevailing <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hard-Line-Republican-Foreign-Policy/dp/0691141827">GOP view</a> has been that membership in military alliances like NATO, a strong U.S. military presence overseas and active American diplomacy make the U.S. safer. </p>
<p>But traditional Republican positions on foreign policy are now in flux. Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-foreign-policy-is-still-america-first-what-does-that-mean-exactly-144841">“America First”</a> vision, which prioritizes American exceptionalism and isolation, challenges traditional Republican internationalism. The Republican primary campaign will help determine the GOP’s foreign policy platform and course. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dwight Eisenhower is one of two men shown in an open-top car in a black and white photo. He waves his hat in the air at a crowd of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Former President Dwight Eisenhower, left, a Republican, championed the idea that the U.S. should remain strongly engaged in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-eisenhower-waves-to-well-wishers-sitting-news-photo/517833370?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Trump’s split from the GOP</h2>
<p>Trump has pursued an <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-foreign-policy-is-still-america-first-what-does-that-mean-exactly-144841">inward-looking</a> approach to the world, questioning the value of alliances and calling on other countries to take care of security problems themselves. </p>
<p>As president, he pulled out of several <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/01/politics/nuclear-treaty-trump/index.html">international treaties</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/19/us/politics/trump-israel-palestinians-human-rights.html">councils that are part of the United Nations</a>. He toyed with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html">exiting NATO</a> and tried to withdraw all U.S. troops <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2022/10/13/trump-ordered-rapid-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-after-election-loss/">from Afghanistan</a>.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Room-Where-It-Happened/John-Bolton/9781982148034">senior advisers</a> and Republican <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trump-s-foreign-policy-faces-growing-dissent-congress-n965641">Congress members</a> pushed back on these plans.</p>
<p>Today, as the U.S. actively supports Ukraine with arms and supplies, Trump advocates for a neutral U.S. stance on the war between Russia and Ukraine. He has <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/politics/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-town-hall/index.html">promised to resolve</a> the conflict within “24 hours” by talking with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.</p>
<p>Although Trump has been the dominant figure among Republicans for seven years, his brand of isolationism has been slow <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/05/27/trump-gop-foreign-policy-polling-490768">to catch on</a> with other Republicans. </p>
<p>Trump, for example, proposed in each year of his presidency to slash the State Department’s budget by about one-third. Republicans in Congress worked with Democrats to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3393170">reject these proposals</a> every time. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923">Trump also called</a> Putin a “genius” following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Congress then passed a series of laws in 2022 – with strong <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3781964-final-funding-bill-includes-45b-for-ukraine/">support from Republicans</a> – that imposed sanctions on Russia and provided Ukraine with large amounts of foreign aid. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Tim Scott is seen, partially obscured by a blue curtain, sitting in a beige chair on a stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Senator Tim Scott qualified to appear at the debate on Aug. 23, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-u-s-sen-tim-scott-speaks-news-photo/1608744302?adppopup=true">Megan Varner/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Republicans distancing themselves from Trump</h2>
<p>Nine <a href="https://www.wisn.com/article/milwaukee-first-republican-presidential-debate/44838820#">Republican candidates have qualified</a> for the Aug. 23 presidential debate, and eight of them – all but Trump – are likely to be on the debate stage. Trump has said that he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-wont-take-part-republican-debates-2023-08-21/">will not participate</a> in the debates.</p>
<p>While the top GOP presidential candidates are largely united in favoring a tough stance toward China, they differ sharply on Ukraine. </p>
<p>Several of the candidates, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.S. Ambassador to the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/07/11/2024-presidential-candidates-on-ukraine/70325435007/">United Nations Nikki Haley</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/07/11/2024-presidential-candidates-on-ukraine/70325435007/">Senator Tim Scott</a> and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/jun/09/where-do-republican-presidential-candidates-stand/">advocate strong U.S. support</a> for Ukraine. </p>
<p>But some other high-profile candidates, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, have called for scaling back U.S. involvement in the war, arguing that America’s involvement is <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/jun/09/where-do-republican-presidential-candidates-stand/">a distraction</a> from more important problems. </p>
<p>There are also signs that overall Republican support for Ukraine is slipping.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html">recent polls suggest</a> that most Republican voters oppose giving Ukraine additional military aid, on top of the more than US$46 billion that the U.S. <a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts?gclid=Cj0KCQjwrfymBhCTARIsADXTabljIE1qo4x7czQDkgXX8KFCPkk4knxAfniFbEaBQaICm9O8mFGYkC0aAqMjEALw_wcB">has already given</a>. </p>
<p>This flagging support for Ukraine aid may reflect the fact that the war continues unabated, without a clear sign of peace talks ahead. Ukraine, meanwhile, has only taken back a small portion of its territory from Russia during its current counteroffensive, leading some Ukraine supporters to <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/huddle/2023/08/17/ukraines-top-freedom-caucus-ally-gets-cold-feet-00111608">question whether U.S. military aid</a> is effective enough to merit its high cost. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley is seen sitting on a stage and speaking, as seen from multiple television screens in a dark roo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Presidential nominee Nikki Haley is one of the Republican politicians who has spoken out in favor of continued U.S. support for Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-u-s-presidential-candidate-and-former-u-s-news-photo/1608484593?adppopup=true">Megan Varner/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The topic is: Ukraine</h2>
<p>When foreign policy comes up in Milwaukee or at future Republican primary debates, it will be telling whether candidates say they still strongly back U.S. efforts to help Ukraine, or not. </p>
<p>If some of them hold firm on their support, it will be a sign that the Republican debate over foreign policy remains alive. </p>
<p>But if they change their position, this may be a sign that Trump’s hold over the Republican Party is spreading to a policy area that he previously did not strongly influence. It would also suggest that the MAGA – Make America Great Again – movement has been effective in propagating Trump’s policy views, even while he is not in office. </p>
<p>Beyond the war in Ukraine, America’s global role is at stake this election season. Although the country has acted on its principles inconsistently and highly imperfectly, the U.S. – through Democratic and Republican administrations – over the past eight decades helped to <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/220215/the-world-america-made-by-robert-kagan/">foster a more peaceful, prosperous</a> and democratic world. </p>
<p>In the meantime, I think that Trump’s Republican rivals have an opportunity to make the case for preserving and strengthening the international alliances and partnerships that <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300271010/a-world-safe-for-democracy/">help keep the U.S.</a> safe. If they make this case effectively, the GOP debate over foreign policy will be primed to continue well beyond 2024.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordan Tama does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While a few Republican politicians have aligned with former President Donald Trump’s isolationist foreign policy position, most candidates continue to push for the traditional stance of engagement.Jordan Tama, Provost Associate Professor of International Relations, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2104442023-08-08T19:07:18Z2023-08-08T19:07:18ZKamala Harris has tied the record for the most tie-breaking votes in Senate history – a brief overview of what vice presidents do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540877/original/file-20230802-6332-61kj04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C21%2C4690%2C3453&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to cast a tiebreaking vote in the U.S. Senate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-kamala-harris-arrives-at-the-senate-chamber-news-photo/1500382345">Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 20, 2021, <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-is-kamala-harris-joe-bidens-pick-for-vice-president-144122">Kamala Harris</a> became the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-represents-an-opportunity-for-coalition-building-between-blacks-and-asian-americans-144547">first African American, the first person of South Asian descent</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/before-kamala-harris-became-bidens-running-mate-shirley-chisholm-and-other-black-women-aimed-for-the-white-house-143655">first</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/call-in-the-women-chrystia-freeland-and-kamala-harriss-new-roles-respond-to-the-times-144896">woman</a> to serve as vice president of the United States.</p>
<p>More recently, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-tiebreaker-vote-db39d642bc423f4984b0ad7b32139ecb">she made history again</a> by casting her 31st tie-breaking vote in the Senate, matching only one other vice president’s record for such votes. <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/07/12/harris-ties-calhouns-191-year-old-record-for-breaking-senate-ties/">John C. Calhoun</a>, who was vice president from 1825 to 1832, needed all eight years of his term to reach that number. In contrast, Harris has only been in office for two and a half years.</p>
<p>If her tie-breaking continues, Harris could end up as one of the most <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3689844-why-kamala-harris-is-already-among-the-most-consequential-vice-presidents-in-history/">consequential</a> vice presidents in history, casting the deciding votes on several laws, <a href="https://theconversation.com/states-pick-judges-very-differently-from-us-supreme-court-appointments-160142">judicial nominations</a> and spending plans. However, this distinction says more about the Senate than the amount of power the vice president actually wields.</p>
<h2>The ‘most insignificant’ office?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="John Adams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Adams, the nation’s first vice president, called the job ‘the most insignificant Office.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gilbert_Stuart,_John_Adams,_c._1800-1815,_NGA_42933.jpg">Gilbert Stuart, National Gallery of Art via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The role of vice president is only mentioned in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> a handful of times.</p>
<p>Article I, Section 3 says that the vice president “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-3-">shall be President of the Senate but shall have no Vote</a>” except in the event of a tie. Historically, ties have been rare. Since 1789, only <a href="https://www.senate.gov/legislative/TieVotes.htm">299 tie-breaking votes</a> have been cast, and 12 vice presidents, including current President Joe Biden, <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/resources/pdf/VPTies.pdf">never cast a single one</a>.</p>
<p>The beginning of Article II, Section 1 explains how vice presidents are elected, which was later revised by the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii">12th Amendment</a>. The end of that section states that presidential power “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-1--2">shall devolve on the Vice President</a>” in the event of the president’s “Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/article-2/section-1/clause-6/succession-clause-for-the-presidency">As written, it is unclear</a> whether this meant that a vice president became the new president or was simply serving in an acting capacity. This was later clarified with the passage of the 25th Amendment, which states that “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv">the Vice President shall become President</a>.” The 25th Amendment also outlines how to fill a vacancy in the vice presidency, and it provides a mechanism for the vice president to serve temporarily as president if a president becomes “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-25th-amendment-says-about-presidents-who-are-unable-to-serve-102825">unable to discharge the powers and duties</a> of his office.”</p>
<p>Finally, Article II, Section 4 states that vice presidents, like presidents, can be “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-4--2">removed from Office</a> on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.” </p>
<p>So, other than <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/1010.html">staying out of trouble</a> to avoid impeachment and waiting around to <a href="https://tbsnews.net/world/what-happens-when-us-president-dies-or-incapacitated-141037">serve as</a> – or replace – the president, vice presidents are really only obligated to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mike-pence-casts-tie-breaking-vote-confirm-betsy-devos-education-n717836">occasionally cast a tiebreaking vote</a> in the Senate. This means that the great majority of the time, vice presidents have no real job to do.</p>
<p>John Adams, the first U.S. vice president, once complained to his wife that the vice presidency was “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Adams/04-09-02-0278">the most insignificant Office</a> that ever the Invention of Man contrived or his Imagination conceived.” </p>
<p>However, not all have been upset about such inactivity. Woodrow Wilson’s vice president, Thomas Marshall, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/wilson-thomas-marshall/">quipped after he retired</a>: “I don’t want to work … [but] I wouldn’t mind being Vice President again.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Will Hays with Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Warren Harding, center, wanted his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, at right, to play an active role in governing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chairman-of-the-republican-national-committee-will-h-hays-news-photo/501167655">FPG/Keystone View Company/Archive Photos via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘last voice in the room’</h2>
<p>Wilson’s successor as president, Warren Harding, had unconventional views about the importance of the role of the vice president. He thought that “the vice president should be <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">more than a mere substitute in waiting</a>,” and he wished for his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, “to be a helpful part” of his administration. Coolidge later became the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/officers-staff/vice-president/VP_Calvin_Coolidge.htm">first vice president</a> in history to attend Cabinet meetings on a regular basis. </p>
<p>In 1923, Harding died, likely of a <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/after-90-years-president-warren-hardings-death-still-unsettled">heart attack</a>, and Coolidge succeeded him as president. “My experience in the Cabinet,” <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">Coolidge later recalled</a>, “was of supreme value to me when I became President.”</p>
<p>After Harding and Coolidge, many later presidents reverted back to the tradition of keeping vice presidents an arm’s length away, even on key matters. Franklin D. Roosevelt, for instance, <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/manhattan-project">kept the atomic bomb a secret</a> from Vice President Harry S. Truman, who <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/profile/harry-truman">didn’t find out</a> about it until Roosevelt’s death.</p>
<p>For the 1960 presidential election, two-term Vice President Richard Nixon faced off against Sen. John F. Kennedy. At one point during the campaign, reporters asked then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower: “Can you think of a major contribution that Nixon has made to your administration?” Eisenhower replied: “<a href="https://www.virginiabusiness.com/article/how-many-u-s-vice-presidents-can-you-name/">Well, if you give me a week I might think of one</a>.” Nixon lost that election.</p>
<p>In 1976, Jimmy Carter picked Sen. Walter Mondale as his running mate. In a memo sent to Carter after winning the election, Mondale argued that “[t]he <a href="http://www2.mnhs.org/library/findaids/00697/pdf/Mondale-CarterMemo.pdf">biggest single problem of our recent administrations</a> has been the failure of the President to be exposed to independent analysis not conditioned by what it is thought he wants to hear or often what others want him to hear.” </p>
<p>Mondale’s vision for the role of vice president was “to offer impartial advice” so that Carter wouldn’t be “shielded from points of view that [he] should hear.” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/20/how-the-vice-president-became-a-powerful-and-influential-white-house-player/">Carter agreed</a> and subsequently made Mondale an integral part of his inner circle.</p>
<p>Biden served 36 years in the Senate before leaving to become Barack Obama’s vice president. When he agreed to be Obama’s running mate, Biden said he wanted to be the “<a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2012-09-06-sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-bidenbre8850xj-20120906-story.html">last man in the room</a>” whenever important decisions were being made so he could give Obama his unfiltered opinion. When Biden picked Harris as his running mate, he said he “asked Kamala to be the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-harris-make-appearance-historic-democratic-ticket/story?id=72327968">last voice in the room</a>,” to “[c]hallenge [his] assumptions if she disagrees,” and to “[a]sk the hard questions.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President Walter Mondale, right, was an active part of President Jimmy Carter’s administration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CarterMondale/160e66151d984d9fb00f4da936a7252f/photo">AP Photo/Harvey Georges</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An ally in an increasingly divided Senate</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm">Under the rules of the U.S. Senate</a>, if just one lawmaker doesn’t want a bill to advance, they can attempt to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HJuaQL3KRI">delay</a> its passage indefinitely via <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-us-states-dont-have-a-filibuster-nor-do-many-democratic-countries-156093">the filibuster</a>. A supermajority of three-fifths of the senators, or 60 of the 100, is required <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-senate-filibuster-explained-and-why-it-should-be-allowed-to-die-123551">to stop the filibuster</a> – or signal that one would not succeed – and proceed to a vote.</p>
<p>Over the years, the Senate has made <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/23/13709518/budget-reconciliation-explained">various procedural</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/nuclear-option-what-it-why-it-matters-n742076">changes</a> to the filibuster, limiting when it can be used.</p>
<p>The end result of <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/filibuster-reform-short-guide">these reforms</a> is that the Senate is now empowered to do more with just a simple majority. In addition, in recent years, the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm">Senate has become increasingly divided</a>. Together, this has created the conditions that have empowered Harris to cast so many tie-breaking votes so quickly, solidifying both her place in history and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-biden-might-drop-his-vice-president-and-reasons-why-he-shouldnt-199655">her place alongside Biden in the 2024 election</a>.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-the-vice-president-do-152467">article</a> initially published Jan. 19, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210444/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Holzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kamala Harris is on track to be one of the most influential vice presidents in history. This says more about the Senate than the amount of power the vice president actually wields.Joshua Holzer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Westminster CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1797432022-04-07T12:26:09Z2022-04-07T12:26:09ZThe forgotten story of Black soldiers and the Red Ball Express during World War II<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455071/original/file-20220329-3198-1iglba1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=332%2C35%2C2663%2C2007&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Shown here in May 1945, these black soldiers were attached to the 666th Quartermaster Truck Company that was part of the Red Ball Express.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://catalog.archives.gov/OpaAPI/media/535533/content/arcmedia/media/images/43/1/43-0066a.gif">National Archives</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower had a problem. In June 1944, Allied forces had <a href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/d-day-allies-invade-europe">landed on Normandy Beach</a> in France and were moving east toward Nazi Germany at a clip of sometimes 75 miles (121 kilometers) per day. </p>
<p>With most of the French rail system in ruins, the Allies had to find a way to <a href="https://www.historynet.com/red-ball-express/">transport supplies</a> to the advancing soldiers.</p>
<p>“Our spearheads … were moving swiftly,” Eisenhower later recalled. “The supply service had to catch these with loaded trucks. Every mile doubled the difficulty because the supply truck had always to make a two-way run to the beaches and back, in order to deliver another load to the marching troops.”</p>
<p>The solution to this logistics problem was the creation of <a href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/red-ball-express">the Red Ball Express</a>, a massive fleet of nearly 6,000 2½-ton General Motors cargo trucks. The term <a href="https://www.dday-overlord.com/en/battle-of-normandy/supply/red-ball-express">Red Ball</a> came from a railway tradition whereby railmen marked priority cars with a red dot. </p>
<p>From August through November 1944, 23,000 American truck drivers and cargo loaders – 70% of whom were Black – moved more than 400,000 tons of ammunition, gasoline, medical supplies and rations to battlefronts in France, Belgium and Germany. </p>
<p>These Red Ball Express trucks and the Black men who drove and loaded them made <a href="http://www.nww2m.com/2014/08/red-ball-express-created/">the U.S. Army</a> the most mobile and mechanized force in the war. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Black soldiers are seen filling up gasoline tanks for dozens of trucks used to transport military supplies." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455085/original/file-20220329-13-5bfjqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455085/original/file-20220329-13-5bfjqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455085/original/file-20220329-13-5bfjqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455085/original/file-20220329-13-5bfjqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455085/original/file-20220329-13-5bfjqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455085/original/file-20220329-13-5bfjqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455085/original/file-20220329-13-5bfjqa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this October 1944 photograph, Black soldiers are filling up gasoline tanks for the Red Ball Express.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/picture-taken-in-france-in-october-1944-showing-a-supply-news-photo/1172719702?adppopup=true">AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They also demonstrated what military planners have long understood – logistics shape what is possible on the fields of battle. </p>
<p>That’s a point well known in today’s war in Ukraine: As the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/27/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-combat.html">Russian invasion</a> stretches into its second year, logistics have been an important factor.</p>
<h2>Supplying the front lines</h2>
<p>The Red Ball Express gave the Allies a strategic advantage over the <a href="https://www.history.com/news/how-did-the-nazis-really-lose-world-war-ii">German infantry divisions</a>, which were overly reliant on rail, wagon trains and horses to move troops and supplies. </p>
<p>A typical German division during the same period had nearly 10 times as many horses as motor vehicles and ran on oats just as much as oil. This limited <a href="https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/the-german-lightning-war-strategy-of-the-second-world-war">the range of the vaunted Blitzkrieg</a>, or lightning attacks, because German tanks and motorized units could not move far ahead of their infantry divisions and supplies.<br>
Driving day and night, the <a href="https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/March-April-2021/Carey-Red-Ball-Express/">Red Ball truckers</a> earned a reputation as tireless and fearless troops. They steered their loud, rough-driving trucks down pitch-black country roads and through narrow lanes in French towns. They drove fast and adopted the French phrase “tout de suite” – immediately, right now – as their motto. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/George-Smith-Patton">Gen. George S. Patton</a> “wanted us to eat, sleep, and drive, but mostly drive,” <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=kI24AwAAQBAJ&pg=PT62&lpg=PT62&dq=%22wanted+us+to+eat,+sleep,+and+drive,+but+mostly+drive%22+patton&source=bl&ots=zseNVzi359&sig=ACfU3U2quUUC7lczGlwgi823l8Fl9t6XLw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjKj_Pejuz2AhXNjIkEHQq4CxkQ6AF6BAgSEAM#v=onepage&q=%22wanted%20us%20to%20eat%2C%20sleep%2C%20and%20drive%2C%20but%20mostly%20drive%22%20patton&f=false">one trucker recalled</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A convoy of trucks carrying military supplies is seen on a narrow road." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455079/original/file-20220329-3198-6a35yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455079/original/file-20220329-3198-6a35yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455079/original/file-20220329-3198-6a35yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455079/original/file-20220329-3198-6a35yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455079/original/file-20220329-3198-6a35yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455079/original/file-20220329-3198-6a35yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455079/original/file-20220329-3198-6a35yh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A convoy of U.S. trucks heads toward the front lines loaded with military supplies from the Belgian port of Antwerp in spring 1945.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/farm-wagon-pulls-to-side-of-the-road-to-make-room-for-a-news-photo/152246065?adppopup=true">Photo12/UIG/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.cleveland.com/metro/2009/09/wwii_driver_recalls_the_red_ba.html">James Rookard</a>, a 19-year-old truck driver from Maple Heights, Ohio, saw trucks get blown up and feared for his life. </p>
<p>“There were dead bodies and dead horses on the highways after bombs dropped,” he said. “I was scared, but I did my job, hoping for the best. Being young and about 4,000 miles away from home, anybody would be scared.” </p>
<p>Patton concluded that “the 2½ truck is our most valuable weapon,” and <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freightwaves-classics-red-ball-express-supplied-american-troops-fighting-the-nazis-part-4">Col. John D. Eisenhower</a>, the supreme commander’s son, argued that without the Red Ball truck drivers, “the advance across France could not have been made.” </p>
<h2>Fighting Nazis and racism</h2>
<p>The Red Ball Express was a microcosm of the larger Black American experience during World War II. Prompted by the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/blackpress/news_bios/courier.html">Pittsburgh Courier</a>, an influential Black newspaper at the time, Black Americans rallied behind the <a href="https://nmaahc.si.edu/explore/exhibitions/double-victory">Double V campaign</a> during the war, which aimed to secure victory over fascism abroad and victory over racism at home. </p>
<p><a href="https://cnx.org/contents/uNYBYcWi@4/%F0%9F%94%8E-Double-V-for-Victory-The-Effort-to-Integrate-the-U-S-Military">Many soldiers</a> saw their service as a way to demonstrate the capabilities of their race.</p>
<p>The Army assigned Black troops almost exclusively to service and supply roles, because <a href="https://armyhistory.org/fighting-for-respect-african-american-soldiers-in-wwi/">military leaders</a> believed they lacked the intelligence, courage and skill needed to fight in combat units. </p>
<p>Despite the racism they encountered during training and deployment, <a href="https://www.army.mil/blackamericans/timeline.html#:%7E:text=Thousands%20of%20Black%20Soldiers%2C%20both,war%2C%20mostly%20in%20integrated%20units.">Black troops</a> served bravely in <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wnet/african-americans-many-rivers-to-cross/history/what-was-black-americas-double-war/">every theater</a> of World War II. Many saw patriotism and a willingness to fight as two characteristics by which manhood and citizenship were defined. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black solider stands near a sign that says Red Ball Highway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455074/original/file-20220329-28-13dric5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455074/original/file-20220329-28-13dric5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455074/original/file-20220329-28-13dric5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455074/original/file-20220329-28-13dric5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455074/original/file-20220329-28-13dric5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455074/original/file-20220329-28-13dric5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455074/original/file-20220329-28-13dric5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this Sept. 5, 1944, photograph, Cpl. Charles H. Johnson of the 783rd Military Police Battalion waves on a Red Ball Express convoy near Alenon, France.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/531220">National Archives</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The boundaries between combat roles and service roles also blurred in war zones. Black truck drivers often had to fight their way through enemy pockets and sometimes required armored escorts to get valuable cargo to the front. </p>
<p>Many of the white American soldiers who relied on supplies delivered by the Red Ball Express recognized the drivers’ valor at the time. </p>
<p>An armored division commander credited the <a href="https://www.fdmuseum.org/collection/online-exhibits/red-ball-express/">Red Ball drivers</a> with allowing tankers to refuel and rearm while fighting. The Black drivers “delivered gas under constant fire,” he said. “Damned if I’d want their job. They have what it takes.” </p>
<p>A 5th Armored Division <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=kI24AwAAQBAJ&pg=PT70&lpg=PT70&dq=%22if+it+wasn%E2%80%99t+for+the+Red+Ball+we+couldn%E2%80%99t+have+moved.%22&source=bl&ots=zseNVzi4c8&sig=ACfU3U0yGpsuJewkJamDARptJQTCnsCdJQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi1_ruvj-z2AhUUj4kEHS-6DXwQ6AF6BAgEEAM#v=onepage&q=%22if%20it%20wasn%E2%80%99t%20for%20the%20Red%20Ball%20we%20couldn%E2%80%99t%20have%20moved.%22&f=false">tank driver</a> said, “If it wasn’t for the Red Ball we couldn’t have moved. They all were Black drivers and they delivered in the heat of combat. We’d be in our tanks praying for them to come up.” </p>
<h2>Logistics in Ukraine</h2>
<p>Days into the war, Ukraine’s armed forces <a href="https://www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/2022/02/26/railway-between-ukraine-and-russia-completely-destroyed/">destroyed all railway links</a> between Ukraine and Russia to thwart the transport of Russian military equipment and tanks. </p>
<p>Relying on trucks and road networks, <a href="https://www.scmglobe.com/russian-logistics-for-the-invasion-of-ukraine/">Russian convoys</a> encountered fuel shortages and counterattacks from Ukrainian military and civilians. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Dozens of trucks with Russian military supplies are seen on a highway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455082/original/file-20220329-27-nwipod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/455082/original/file-20220329-27-nwipod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455082/original/file-20220329-27-nwipod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455082/original/file-20220329-27-nwipod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455082/original/file-20220329-27-nwipod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455082/original/file-20220329-27-nwipod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/455082/original/file-20220329-27-nwipod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A convoy of Russian military vehicles moves toward the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine on Feb. 23, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/convoy-of-russian-military-vehicles-is-seen-as-the-vehicles-news-photo/1238710804?adppopup=true">Stringer/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Russian military’s ability to move supplies across extended distances – as well as Ukraine’s ability to disrupt those supply lines – is still pivotal in determining the future of the war.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Delmont receives funding from National Endowment for the Humanities and the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation.</span></em></p>Comprised mostly of Black soldiers, the Red Ball Express transported supplies day and night and is given credit for providing a strategic advantage over the Nazi military.Matthew Delmont, Sherman Fairchild Distinguished Professor of History, Dartmouth CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1655642021-08-09T12:28:16Z2021-08-09T12:28:16ZWhy refusing the COVID-19 vaccine isn’t just immoral – it’s ‘un-American’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414632/original/file-20210804-19-1r8mn23.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C88%2C7304%2C4704&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many individuals are rejecting the COVID-19 vaccines for personal reasons.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/anti-vaccine-rally-protesters-hold-signs-outside-of-houston-news-photo/1233672891?adppopup=true">Mark Felix / AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Decades ago I helped organize a conference that brought together vaccine skeptics and public health officials. The debate centered on what governments can and cannot demand from citizens, and what behaviors one can rightly expect from others.</p>
<p>It took place many years before the current coronavirus pandemic, but many things that happened at that conference remind me of our circumstances today. Not least, <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/christopher-beem-222877">as a political theorist who also studies social ethics</a>, it reminds me that arguments grounded in self-interest can often be correct – but still deeply inadequate. </p>
<h2>The rationality of vaccine skepticism</h2>
<p>I recall one participant summarizing her objection to vaccines in the following way: She said that the government demanded that she allow a live biological agent to be injected into her child’s body even though it could not guarantee her child’s safety. For these reasons, she claimed, she had every right to decide that her child would not receive the vaccine.</p>
<p>This woman’s objection was driven by her suspicion that the MMR vaccine, for measles, mumps and rubella, caused autism. <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/autism.htm">This claim has been shown, repeatedly and conclusively, to be without merit</a>. Still, she was not entirely wrong. Many vaccines do contain live agents, though they are in a <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/immunization/basics/types/index.html">weakened or attenuated state</a>. And while adverse and even serious reactions have been known to occur, such a risk is <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-covid-19-vaccine-warnings-dont-mean-its-unsafe-they-mean-the-system-to-report-side-effects-is-working-164455">infinitesimally small</a>. Indeed, the preponderance of evidence shows that the risk of harm or death to the unvaccinated child from infections such as MMR is <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/05-12-2019-more-than-140-000-die-from-measles-as-cases-surge-worldwide">far greater than any associated with receiving the vaccine</a>. </p>
<p>But more importantly, this parent’s decision to reject the vaccine affected more than just her child. Because so many parents refuse vaccination for their children, outbreaks of measles have taken place throughout the U.S. In fact, in 2019 the United States reported <a href="https://www.unicef.org/stories/measles-explained-whats-behind-recent-outbreaks">its highest number of cases of measles in 25 years</a>. </p>
<h2>COVID and vaccine hesitancy</h2>
<p>Many individuals are rejecting the COVID-19 vaccine for <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-in-their-own-words-six-months-later/">similar reasons – that is, reasons grounded in self-interest</a>. They say that COVID vaccines are experimental, their long-term effects are unknown and that emergency authorization by the Food and Drug Administration was rushed. </p>
<p>In fact, while the vaccines were <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization">given emergency authorization</a> to expedite their availability to the general public, they are not experimental but rather the result of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-03626-1">years of already existing research</a> on mRNA vaccines and coronaviruses – the family of viruses including SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19. And they received authorization only after <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/safety-of-vaccines.html">conclusive evidence showing they were indeed safe</a>. </p>
<p>Those who reject the COVID vaccine also note that many receiving the vaccine have had an adverse reaction, including <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect/after.html">flu-like symptoms</a> that are short-lived but often quite unpleasant. Cases of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/allergic-reaction.html">anaphylactic shock</a> or blood clots have also happened, but they have <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/safety-of-vaccines.html">been extremely rare</a>, and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/allergic-reaction.html">safeguards on how to provide immediate care are in place</a> for any such eventuality. </p>
<p>Here again the risks associated with the vaccine are extremely small, but for some people, still real. Therefore these individuals apparently decided that they <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-june-2021/">would rather take their chances with the disease itself</a>. Many are young and don’t think the disease will affect them, and many more don’t trust the doctors, scientists and politicians who they say are pushing them to take the vaccine.</p>
<p>One could readily dispute these claims, too. In fact, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/us-covid-vaccine-rates-delta-variant.html">rising vaccination rates</a> over the past few weeks show that many people have reevaluated the risks of remaining unvaccinated. Whether these people have seen evidence of the virulence of the delta variant or have seen for themselves that millions of people have taken the vaccine and are completely fine, <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/press-release/vaccine-monitor-some-who-were-hesitant-to-get-a-vaccine-in-january-say-they-changed-their-mind-because-of-family-friends-and-their-personal-doctors/">their evaluation of their own self-interest has changed</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, many <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-in-their-own-words-six-months-later/">others remain adamant</a> that these risks are unacceptable. Like that parent from many years ago, these individuals are not entirely wrong. There are risks associated with getting the vaccine. And knowing these risks, and knowing that they bear the costs of their decision, many Americans believe that they alone have the right to decide. What the government or anyone else wants is beside the point.</p>
<p>But here again, the costs of refusing the vaccine are not borne by the individual alone. <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-is-split-between-the-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-and-deaths-and-hospitalizations-reflect-this-divide-164460">Rising case numbers and hospitalizations</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/">renewed restrictions</a> regarding public events, even the <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-08-04/delta-variant-accounts-for-nearly-all-of-coronavirus-cases-in-us">emergence of the delta variant</a> itself are happening largely because many millions of Americans chose not to get the vaccine. And for parents of children under 12 who cannot yet receive the vaccine – some of whom are immune compromised – the thought of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-01826-x">returning to school</a> this fall with infection rates again climbing no doubt fills them with dread.</p>
<p>Many would argue that this lack of concern for other people is immoral. The Golden Rule – do unto others as you would have others do unto you — manifests that concern for the well-being of others is at the core of morality. Those who choose not to take the vaccine ignore this concern and therefore act immorally. But, I would argue that their indifference to the welfare of others is not only immoral, it is also un-American.</p>
<h2>Democracy and concern for others</h2>
<p>Americans are a <a href="http://clearlycultural.com/geert-hofstede-cultural-dimensions/individualism/">highly individualistic nation</a>, and the spirit of “rugged individualism,” or the idea of “pulling yourself up by your bootstraps,” runs deep in American culture and history. In fact, from the nation’s very beginning, Americans have accepted the notion that human beings care about themselves and those they love more than they do about other people. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414636/original/file-20210804-23-7cb44w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A portrait of James Madison" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414636/original/file-20210804-23-7cb44w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/414636/original/file-20210804-23-7cb44w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414636/original/file-20210804-23-7cb44w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414636/original/file-20210804-23-7cb44w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=721&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414636/original/file-20210804-23-7cb44w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=907&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414636/original/file-20210804-23-7cb44w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=907&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/414636/original/file-20210804-23-7cb44w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=907&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">James Madison, the fourth president of the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/james-madison-fourth-president-of-the-united-states-of-news-photo/3246309?adppopup=true">Stock Montage/Stock Montage/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>At the time of America’s founding, <a href="http://dictionnaire-montesquieu.ens-lyon.fr/en/article/1376475883/en/">many contemporaries believed</a> that a democracy is possible only if citizens love their country more than themselves. But America’s founders rejected this idea. Human beings are not angels, <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/primary-sources/federalist-no-51">James Madison said</a>. The founders accepted the reality of human selfishness and developed institutions – especially the checks and balances among the three branches of government – whereby people’s natural selfishness could be directed toward socially useful ends. </p>
<p>But neither Madison nor any of the other founders believed that human beings were merely selfish. Nor did they believe that a democracy could be sustained on selfishness alone. The Federalist Papers were written by James Madison, Alexander Hamilton and John Jay in support of the U.S. Constitution drafted in 1787. <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/1404/1404-h/1404-h.htm#link2H_4_0055">In Federalist 55</a>, Madison presents this summation of human nature: </p>
<p>“As there is a degree of depravity in mankind which requires a certain degree of circumspection and distrust, so there are other qualities in human nature which justify a certain portion of esteem and confidence. Republican government presupposes the existence of these qualities in a higher degree than any other form.” </p>
<p>Yes, Madison says, human beings are selfish, and one must not ignore that reality when one is deciding how to run a society. But people are not merely selfish. We are also capable of acting with honesty and integrity and of thinking for the good of the whole rather than merely ourselves. </p>
<p>More, Madison argued that this other side of human nature, this concern for others, had to be operative if democracy were to survive. In fact, he insisted that, more than any other form of government, a democracy depended on virtuous citizens. Speaking at the ratifying convention for the U.S. Constitution in his home state of Virginia, <a href="https://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch13s36.html">Madison said</a>: </p>
<p>“Is there no virtue among us? If there be not, we are in a wretched situation. No theoretical checks – no forms of government can render us secure. To suppose that any form of government will secure liberty or happiness without any virtue in the people, is a chimerical idea.” </p>
<h2>Mere selfishness is ‘un-American’</h2>
<p>Madison lived through the yellow fever epidemic of 1793. <a href="https://digitaldoorway.montpelier.org/2020/03/31/executive-power-in-an-epidemic/">He even advised</a> President George Washington about how he might address this health emergency. But there was no vaccine, nor even an understanding of what caused the epidemic.</p>
<p>While we don’t know what Madison would have said about a vaccine, we do know what <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-the-president-the-polio-vaccine-situation">President Dwight D. Eisenhower said after the development of the polio vaccine</a>. Eisenhower’s words likewise affirm the idea that our democracy requires that we show concern for one another. </p>
<p>“We all hope that the dread disease of poliomyelitis can be eradicated from our society. With the combined efforts of all, the Salk vaccine will be made available for our children in a manner in keeping with our highest traditions of cooperative national action,” he said.</p>
<p>Because of Madison and the other founders, the United States is a free and democratic society. Within very broad limits, Americans all have the right to make their own decisions. In some cases, Americans may even have the right to ignore the impact of their decision on others. </p>
<p>But a free society demands more of its citizens than mere selfishness. Political institutions can help direct and mitigate the effects of this natural human inclination to selfishness. </p>
<p>Throughout history, America’s leaders have recognized that without concern for others, without the highest tradition of cooperative national action, democracy is in peril. People who decide not to get vaccinated must understand that their actions are not just selfish, they are un-American. </p>
<p>[<em>Understand what’s going on in Washington.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Beem does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>America’s founders accepted the reality of human selfishness. But, they also said people were capable of thinking for the good of the whole, which is necessary for a free society.Christopher Beem, Managing Director of the McCourtney Institute of Democracy, Co-host of Democracy Works Podcast, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1581992021-04-19T12:27:57Z2021-04-19T12:27:57ZHas any US president ever served more than eight years?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392657/original/file-20210330-19-1co58pi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C76%2C5662%2C4431&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Franklin Delano Roosevelt, standing at center and facing left just above the eagle, takes the presidential oath of office for the third time in 1941.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flickr.com/photos/54078784@N08/6351043453">FDR Presidential Library and Museum via Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281719/original/file-20190628-76743-26slbc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/curious-kids-us-74795">Curious Kids</a> is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to <a href="mailto:curiouskidsus@theconversation.com">curiouskidsus@theconversation.com</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Has there ever been a president who has served more than eight years? – Joseph, 8, New York, New York</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>The only president in American history to serve more than two four-year terms was <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/fdroosevelt">Franklin Delano Roosevelt</a>. He actually served three full terms as well as the first three months of a fourth term until his death on April 12, 1945.</p>
<p>The current limits on how long a person can be president come from the 22nd Amendment, added to the U.S. Constitution in 1951, which limits presidents to <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-22/">two successful presidential elections</a>. The amendment makes one exception: If a president takes office in the middle of someone else’s term – if the president dies, for example, and a vice president takes over and serves less than two years, that person can still run twice for their own election. But if the replacement president serves for more than two years of their predecessor’s term, they can only be elected to one more presidential term of their own.</p>
<p>FDR wasn’t breaking those rules, because the rules did not exist for the first 162 years of the nation’s history, from 1789 to 1951. Even so, in all that time, he was the only president who served more than two terms.</p>
<p>A total of 13 presidents have served exactly two full terms. Eight of them came before Roosevelt. <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/washington">George Washington</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/jefferson">Thomas Jefferson</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/madison">James Madison</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/monroe">James Monroe</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/jackson">Andrew Jackson</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/grant">Ulysses Grant</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/wilson">Woodrow Wilson</a> served their terms consecutively. <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/cleveland">Grover Cleveland</a> served two terms separated by the four-year term of <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/bharrison">Benjamin Harrison</a>.</p>
<p>Some considered third terms: In 1880, four years after he finished out his second term, <a href="http://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198837404.003.0020">Grant pressed his candidacy once again</a> but failed to secure the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. And as Woodrow Wilson finished out his second term in 1920, <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/david-pietrusza/1920/9780786732135/">he also thought about running for a third term</a>, but ultimately withdrew from consideration.</p>
<p>Five more presidents – <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/eisenhower">Dwight Eisenhower</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/reagan">Ronald Reagan</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/clinton">Bill Clinton</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/gwbush">George W. Bush</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/obama">Barack Obama</a> – came after the 22nd Amendment was passed, so they had to leave and let someone else take over.</p>
<p>Four additional presidents – <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/roosevelt">Theodore Roosevelt</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/coolidge">Calvin Coolidge</a>, <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/truman">Harry Truman</a> and <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/lbjohnson">Lyndon Johnson</a> – completed the remaining terms of another president and were elected to their own full term immediately afterward. Under the rules of their times, each of them could have run for one more term. Several chose not to run for reelection; others ran and lost.</p>
<p>For example, Lyndon Johnson, who took over after John F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1963, initially tried for a second full term in 1968. But during the presidential primaries, he withdrew from consideration, in part because his <a href="https://www.history.com/news/lbj-exit-1968-presidential-race">handling of the war in Vietnam was unpopular</a> and threatened his chances.</p>
<p><iframe id="cRKFU" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/cRKFU/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The precedent of serving just two terms was originally established by Washington, the nation’s first president. By all accounts, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/46099/his-excellency-by-joseph-j-ellis/">Washington would have easily been reelected</a> had he chosen to run a third time.</p>
<p>But he rejected public calls to run for a third term as president in 1796. Washington was concerned that by staying in office longer, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/46099/his-excellency-by-joseph-j-ellis/">he might send a message</a> that presidents should govern until death or illness drove them away, like a king. The American Revolution had just overthrown a monarchy. Washington thus wanted to lead by example in voluntarily leaving office after his second term, retiring to his Mount Vernon estate in Virginia.</p>
<p>After all, if two terms is good enough for George Washington, isn’t it good enough for everyone else?</p>
<hr>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Yalof does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Only one president has done so – Franklin Delano Roosevelt – but others considered it, and even tried.David Yalof, Professor of Political Science, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1538292021-02-04T19:27:48Z2021-02-04T19:27:48ZHow the National Prayer Breakfast became an opportunity for presidents and faith leaders alike to push their political agendas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382543/original/file-20210204-14-91vl43.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5982%2C3673&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden called for faith in these 'dark, dark times' at the National Prayer Breakfast</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenPrayerBreakfast/9b1e92e7149b4110859ec160cc10a5ee/photo?Query=Biden%20AND%20breakfast&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=105&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Addressing his first National Prayer Breakfast as president on Feb. 4, Joe Biden spoke of the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-joe-biden-capitol-siege-politics-christianity-ac782a7f78734012ea880e51be6fec79">need to “turn to faith” in a “dark, dark time</a>.”</p>
<p>In the wake of the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, he called for Americans to “confront and defeat political extremism, white supremacy and domestic terrorism,” and argued that religion can help America unite as “one nation in a common purpose: to respect one another, to care for one another, [and] to leave no one behind.” </p>
<p>The president’s address provided an insight into how Biden plans to navigate the complex relationship between <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-american-evangelicals-after-trump-leaves-office-149668">religion and politics in the post-Trump era</a>. </p>
<p>But it also underlines the importance of the traditional presidential address at the National Prayer Breakfast – an annual high-profile gathering of faith leaders and politicians held in Washington D.C. on the first Thursday in February since 1953.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A crowd of hundreds of mostly older people stand singing and praying" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382281/original/file-20210203-17-ydf4lg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C26%2C4473%2C2964&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382281/original/file-20210203-17-ydf4lg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382281/original/file-20210203-17-ydf4lg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382281/original/file-20210203-17-ydf4lg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382281/original/file-20210203-17-ydf4lg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382281/original/file-20210203-17-ydf4lg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382281/original/file-20210203-17-ydf4lg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People sing ‘Amazing Grace’ during the National Prayer Breakfast in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-sing-amazing-grace-during-the-national-prayer-news-photo/1094936078?adppopup=true">Brendan Smialowski AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>That the annual breakfast draws so much attention marks the fulfillment of a dream by the event’s <a href="http://archiveswest.orbiscascade.org/ark:/80444/xv35217">founder, Abraham Vereide</a>, a Norwegian immigrant and minister born in 1886 who credited the idea to an early morning vision brought about by prayer. As a <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/rlst/deborah-whitehead">scholar of U.S. religion and culture</a>, I believe the story of the National Prayer Breakfast provides insight into the complex relationship between religion and politics in the last century.</p>
<h2>The start in the 1930s</h2>
<p>Vereide <a href="https://www.pp-publishing.com/our-ebooks/humanities/spirituality-beliefs/modern-viking-the-story-of-abraham-vereide-pioneer-in-christian-leadership-grubb/">came to the U.S. in 1905</a> and found work as an itinerant Methodist minister. He served as a director of Goodwill Industries in Seattle and spent the first part of his career doing relief work for the poor and needy during the Great Depression. But according to Christian author <a href="http://normangrubb.com/">Norman Percy Grubb</a>’s biography of Vereide, “<a href="https://www.pp-publishing.com/our-ebooks/humanities/spirituality-beliefs/modern-viking-the-story-of-abraham-vereide-pioneer-in-christian-leadership-grubb/">Modern Viking</a>,” he came to feel it was not the “down and out” but the “up and out” – wealthy and powerful men who were not particularly religious – who really needed his attention. <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=MAOwDwAAQBAJ&lpg=PT92&ots=LIgMTEE9pu&dq=the%20manpower%20of%20the%20churches%20had%20dwindled%20badly%2C%20and%20politics%20seemed%20under%20the%20control%20of%20those%20who%20were%20not%20fit%20to%20take%20leadership&pg=PT92#v=onepage&q=the%20manpower%20of%20the%20churches%20had%20dwindled%20badly,%20and%20politics%20seemed%20under%20the%20control%20of%20those%20who%20were%20not%20fit%20to%20take%20leadership&f=false">Vereide wrote</a> that “the manpower of the churches had dwindled badly, and politics seemed under the control of those who were not fit to take leadership.” Concerned about the decline of organized religion’s political power and the growing role of the organized labor movement, and convinced that both unions and FDR’s New Deal were “subversive” and “un-American” influences in business and politics, he turned to prayer.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382298/original/file-20210203-21-wxww2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Headshot of a middle-aged white man wearing glasses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382298/original/file-20210203-21-wxww2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382298/original/file-20210203-21-wxww2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382298/original/file-20210203-21-wxww2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382298/original/file-20210203-21-wxww2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382298/original/file-20210203-21-wxww2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382298/original/file-20210203-21-wxww2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382298/original/file-20210203-21-wxww2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Abraham Vereide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Abraham_Vereide.jpg">Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One night in April 1935, Vereide’s prayers yielded what he claimed was a 1:30 a.m. vision and a plan. Later that month he gathered 19 local businessmen for the <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2009/06/what-s-with-all-the-prayer-breakfasts.html">first Seattle prayer breakfast</a>. The 7:45 a.m. meeting time was chosen so as not to interfere with family and work responsibilities. </p>
<p>In these initial meetings, the group was primarily concerned with how to combat the local workers’ movement, which they perceived as dangerous and corrupt, and it was restricted to business executives only. But in the process, Vereide realized that these breakfast meetings – nondenominational, held in secular offices rather than church buildings, and focused on prayer, Bible study and building relationships – established powerful new networks among the city’s business, political, and religious leaders. Prayer breakfasts became <a href="https://www.pp-publishing.com/our-ebooks/humanities/spirituality-beliefs/modern-viking-the-story-of-abraham-vereide-pioneer-in-christian-leadership-grubb/">Vereide’s method for reaching powerful elites</a> who could help to advance Christian interests in business and politics.</p>
<p>The prayer breakfast movement quickly spread to other cities, including Washington, D.C., where the first prayer groups were established in the <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1062/national-prayer-breakfast">U.S. House and Senate in 1942 and 1943</a>. In 1943 Vereide founded the National Committee for Christian Leadership, changing its name to International Christian Leadership the following year, to provide coordination for the growing movement. He <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=qWeYDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA70&lpg=PA70&dq=One+world+in+active+cooperation+in+commerce,+science,+labor+and+education+should+be+one+world+in+spiritual+unity+and+moral+convictions&source=bl&ots=hz7sK2fTgE&sig=ACfU3U1gSERYek3ZNAprNK3sWaBbG1VRUg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiym76L1dDuAhUx2FkKHRIkCnwQ6AEwAHoECAUQAg#v=onepage&q=One%20world%20in%20active%20cooperation%20in%20commerce%2C%20science%2C%20labor%20and%20education%20should%20be%20one%20world%20in%20spiritual%20unity%20and%20moral%20convictions&f=false">defined the organization’s purpose</a> as “One world in active cooperation in commerce, science, labor and education should be one world in spiritual unity and moral convictions.” </p>
<p>Vereide attributed the movement’s success to the example of none other than Jesus himself, whose disciples were “men in the fishing business.” </p>
<p>“Jesus founded the first breakfast group,” he said. </p>
<h2>From hesitancy to opportunity</h2>
<p>In 1953, the first Presidential Prayer Breakfast, as it was then called, <a href="https://time.com/4202899/national-prayer-breakfast-history/">was held in the Mayflower Hotel</a> in Washington, D.C., with 400 in attendance. President Dwight Eisenhower <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/national-prayer-breakfast-what-does-its-history-reveal-180962017/">initially declined an invitation to attend</a>, but relented with the persuasion of evangelist Billy Graham, and delivered an address about the importance of prayer.</p>
<p>Eisenhower <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/theoval/2016/02/04/how-presidents-pray-prayer-breakfast-eisenhower-obama/79786384/">remarked that</a> “prayer is just simply a necessity, because by prayer I believe we mean an effort to get in touch with the Infinite.”</p>
<p>Since Eisenhower, every sitting U.S. president has attended the breakfast at least once during his term. The presidential address is only part of the breakfast, a multi-day event. While most presidents have used the address to speak about their personal religious beliefs, at the 2020 breakfast, Donald Trump waved “Trump Acquitted” newspaper headlines and used the opportunity to <a href="https://theconversation.com/national-prayer-breakfast-was-a-moment-for-leaders-to-show-humility-trump-changed-it-131178">launch an attack on the religious commitments of his political opponents</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382292/original/file-20210203-17-avvhb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Donald Trump speaks to a man wearing a yarmulke who is turned away from the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382292/original/file-20210203-17-avvhb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/382292/original/file-20210203-17-avvhb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382292/original/file-20210203-17-avvhb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382292/original/file-20210203-17-avvhb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382292/original/file-20210203-17-avvhb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382292/original/file-20210203-17-avvhb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/382292/original/file-20210203-17-avvhb4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Donald Trump at the National Prayer Breakfast in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-greets-members-of-the-head-table-news-photo/633542802?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Exclusive and elitist?</h2>
<p>The breakfast is still sponsored by the same organization Vereide founded, now known, simply, as <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2010/09/abraham-vereide-doug-coe-the-family/">The Family</a>, and two members of Congress and a bipartisan committee serve as its honorary hosts.</p>
<p>After Vereide’s death in 1969, evangelist and businessman Doug Coe <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/us/obituary-doug-coe-fellowship-foundation.html">succeeded him in leadership of the organization</a>. Under Coe, who died in 2017, the prayer breakfast continued to grow in influence – with Coe himself counting <a href="https://religionnews.com/2017/02/22/doug-coe-behind-the-scenes-leader-of-national-prayer-breakfast-dead-at-88/">high-ranking politicians among his powerful friends</a>.</p>
<p>“The Family,” a <a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/80063867">2019 Netflix series</a>, explored the influence of the organization on American politics. Journalist <a href="https://faculty-directory.dartmouth.edu/jeff-sharlet">Jeff Sharlet</a>, whose 2009 book is the basis of the series, says that “The National Prayer Breakfast is 100% The Family’s event, an event that is meant to be this very public display of power.” </p>
<p>Attendance at the breakfast is by invitation only, and the event has long faced criticism that it is <a href="http://doi.org/10.1093/jaarel/lfj060">exclusive and elitist</a>. And <a href="https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/posts/a-secular-view-of-obama-at-the-national-prayer-breakfast">secularists balk</a> at the way that the event has become a public religious ritual at the center of U.S. government. </p>
<p>Since the Obama era, many non-Christian and secular groups have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/04/us/politics/04prayer.html">called on presidents to boycott the breakfast</a> because of concerns over its connections to anti-LGBTQ and right-wing groups. This year, secular advocacy group Americans United <a href="https://www.au.org/media/press-releases/Biden-National-Prayer-Breakfast">called on Biden</a> to “draw a sharp contrast with his predecessor” by strongly endorsing church-state separation, freedom of religion and religious pluralism.</p>
<p>As the breakfast has expanded to become an interreligious, international event, now including <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/national-prayer-breakfast-what-does-its-history-reveal-180962017/">4,000 attendees from over 140 countries</a>, it has also become a ready opportunity for networking and deal-making.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://web.cvent.com/event/ba14a52c-e246-408c-a7f4-678a8c7196cd/websitePage:2e3794fb-71fe-4142-bdfa-8248f201e80d">event registration website</a>, “the purpose of the National Prayer Breakfast is to gather people from all over the world to pray for our leaders and to walk with them on the path that Jesus sets forth for all of us.” It also claims not to be “a political gathering.” Rather, “many politicians who come are Jesus-centered leaders who talk about how they collaborate and develop friendships across the aisle.”</p>
<p>But a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/27/us/politics/national-prayer-breakfast.html">2018 article in The New York Times</a> – published after the indictment of Maria Butina, a Russian <a href="https://www.ncronline.org/news/people/why-mariia-butina-wasn-t-only-russian-attending-national-prayer-breakfast">agent who attended the National Prayer Breakfast</a> twice in an effort to set up back-channel meetings between Russian and American officials – had a different take, calling the event “an international influence-peddling bazaar, where foreign dignitaries, religious leaders, diplomats and lobbyists jockey for access to the highest reaches of American power.”</p>
<p>Biden’s address <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/04/biden-faith-unity-national-prayer-breakfast-465845">attempted to address those criticisms without breaking tradition</a> and to cast religion as a unifying, rather than divisive, force in U.S. politics. Since Eisenhower, the breakfast has endured as a presidential tradition, he said, but what it celebrates is something fundamentally beyond partisanship, beyond politics, and beyond any one religious tradition: “A nation … always in prayer.”</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah Whitehead does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Joe Biden used the National Prayer Breakfast to call for unity amid ‘dark, dark times.’ The event has been attended by every president since Dwight Eisenhower in 1953.Deborah Whitehead, Associate Professor of Religious Studies, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1524672021-01-19T17:07:18Z2021-01-19T17:07:18ZWhat does the vice president do?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377391/original/file-20210106-17-lpwkss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5991%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's a top government job, but what does being vice president mean?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakHarris/56ef84b8246447418d250b158f225185/photo">AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Jan. 20, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/harris-makes-history-first-female-black-south-asian-american-vp-n1246916">Kamala Harris</a> will become vice president of the United States – the first woman, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-represents-an-opportunity-for-coalition-building-between-blacks-and-asian-americans-144547">first person of South Asian descent, and the first African American</a> to do so. Harris will also become the <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kamala-harris-on-being-a-graduate-from-a-historically-black-college-this-is-what-these-institutions-were-really-built-for-they-were-built-for-this-moment-11597258044">first</a> vice president to have graduated from a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/historically-black-colleges-and-universities">historically black college or university</a>.</p>
<p>Each of these achievements is significant in its own right. However, the vice presidency itself has traditionally been a relatively insignificant position, though the office has become more influential in recent years.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="John Adams" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377394/original/file-20210106-23-4hlt3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Adams, the nation’s first vice president, called the job ‘the most insignificant Office.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gilbert_Stuart,_John_Adams,_c._1800-1815,_NGA_42933.jpg">Gilbert Stuart, National Gallery of Art via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘most insignificant’ office?</h2>
<p>The role of vice president is only mentioned in the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript">U.S. Constitution</a> a handful of times. Article I, Section 3 says that the vice president “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-3-">shall be President of the Senate but shall have no Vote</a>” except in the event of a tie. Normally, ties are rare, but the vice president’s power to break them will likely become relevant to Harris as Democrats, and independents who caucus with Democrats, are expected to control only 50 of the 100 Senate seats.</p>
<p>The beginning of Article II, Section 1 explains how vice presidents are elected, which was later revised by the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii">12th Amendment</a>. The end of that section states that presidential power “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-1--2">shall devolve on the Vice President</a>” in the event of the president’s “Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office.” Finally, Article II, Section 4 states that vice presidents – like presidents – can be “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/constitution-transcript#toc-section-4--2">removed from Office</a> on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”</p>
<p>So, other than <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/1010.html">staying out of trouble</a> to avoid impeachment and waiting around for the president to <a href="https://tbsnews.net/world/what-happens-when-us-president-dies-or-incapacitated-141037">need a replacement</a>, vice presidents are really obligated only to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mike-pence-casts-tie-breaking-vote-confirm-betsy-devos-education-n717836">occasionally cast a tie-breaking vote</a>. This means that the great majority of the time, vice presidents have no real job to do.</p>
<p>John Adams, the first U.S. vice president, once complained to his wife that the vice presidency was “<a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Adams/04-09-02-0278">the most insignificant Office</a> that ever the Invention of Man contrived or his Imagination conceived.” However, not all have been upset about such inactivity. Woodrow Wilson’s vice president, Thomas Marshall, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/wilson-thomas-marshall/">quipped after he retired</a>: “I don’t want to work … [but] I wouldn’t mind being Vice President again.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Will Hays with Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377397/original/file-20210106-17-109o8zz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Warren Harding, center, wanted his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, at right, to play an active role in governing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chairman-of-the-republican-national-committee-will-h-hays-news-photo/501167655">FPG/Keystone View Company/Archive Photos/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>The evolution of the vice presidency</h2>
<p>Wilson’s successor as president, Warren Harding, had unconventional views about the importance of the role of the vice president. He thought that “<a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">the vice president should be more than a mere substitute in waiting</a>,” and he wished for his vice president, Calvin Coolidge, “to be a helpful part” of his administration. Coolidge later became the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/officers-staff/vice-president/VP_Calvin_Coolidge.htm">first vice president</a> in history to attend Cabinet meetings on a regular basis. </p>
<p>In 1923, Harding died of a <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/after-90-years-president-warren-hardings-death-still-unsettled">likely heart attack</a>, and Coolidge succeeded him as president. “My experience in the Cabinet,” <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-104sdoc26/pdf/CDOC-104sdoc26.pdf">Coolidge later recalled</a>, “was of supreme value to me when I became President.”</p>
<p>After Harding and Coolidge, many later presidents reverted back to the tradition of keeping vice presidents an arm’s length away, even on key matters. Franklin D. Roosevelt, for instance, kept <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/manhattan-project">the atomic bomb</a> a secret from Vice President Harry S. Truman, who <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/profile/harry-truman">didn’t find out</a> about it until Roosevelt’s death.</p>
<p>For the 1960 presidential election, two-term Vice President Richard Nixon faced off against John F. Kennedy. At one point during the campaign, reporters asked then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower: “Can you think of a major contribution that Nixon has made to your administration?” Eisenhower replied: “<a href="https://www.virginiabusiness.com/article/how-many-u-s-vice-presidents-can-you-name/">Well, if you give me a week I might think of one</a>.” Nixon lost that election.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377399/original/file-20210106-21-14f67c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President Walter Mondale, right, was an active part of President Jimmy Carter’s administration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CarterMondale/160e66151d984d9fb00f4da936a7252f/photo">AP Photo/Harvey Georges</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1976, Jimmy Carter picked Walter Mondale as his running mate. In a memo sent to Carter after winning the election, Mondale argued that “[t]he <a href="http://www2.mnhs.org/library/findaids/00697/pdf/Mondale-CarterMemo.pdf">biggest single problem of our recent administrations</a> has been the failure of the President to be exposed to independent analysis not conditioned by what it is thought he wants to hear or often what others want him to hear.” Mondale’s vision for the role of vice president was “to offer impartial advice” so that Carter wouldn’t be “shielded from points of view that [he] should hear.” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/20/how-the-vice-president-became-a-powerful-and-influential-white-house-player/">Carter agreed</a> and subsequently made Mondale an integral part of his inner circle.</p>
<p>Many vice presidents since Mondale have often offered points of view that didn’t align with that of the president. Bill Clinton and Al Gore, for instance, <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2007/11/clinton200711">disagreed</a> over the amount of power and influence entrusted to first lady Hillary Clinton; they also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/20/us/once-close-to-clinton-gore-keeps-a-distance.html">disagreed</a> over the handling of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2010/11/03/131035736/bush-considered-dropping-cheney-from-ticket-in-04">disagreed</a>, at times, over Iraq, as well as the use and nonuse of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jan/23/dick-cheney-george-bush-libby-pardon">presidential pardons</a>.</p>
<p>In contrast, Mike Pence has proved to be a <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2020/0826/Last-man-standing-How-Pence-s-loyalty-helped-him-survive">loyal ally</a> to a president who has a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/">track record</a> of being unwilling to listen to dissent.</p>
<p>In the wake of the Jan. 6 <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-it-a-coup-no-but-siege-on-us-capitol-was-the-election-violence-of-a-fragile-democracy-152803">insurrection</a>, Democrats <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/533112-first-gop-lawmaker-calls-for-invoking-25th-amendment-to-remove-trump">and even a few Republicans</a> called on Pence to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-25th-amendment-work-and-can-it-be-used-to-remove-trump-from-office-after-us-capitol-attack-152869">remove Trump from office</a> by invoking the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv">25th Amendment</a>. Pence ultimately <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/us/politics/pence-opposes-invoking-25th-amendment.html">avoided</a> taking <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/politics/trump-pence-25th-amendment/index.html">such action</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Vice President Mike Pence presides over the joint session of Congress reviewing Electoral College votes on Jan. 6, 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377412/original/file-20210106-13-1a5nru2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One key job of the vice president involves presiding over the process of counting Electoral College votes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vice-president-mike-pence-presides-over-a-joint-session-of-news-photo/1230451359">Saul Loeb/Pool/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘last voice in the room’</h2>
<p>Following Mondale’s model, when Joe Biden agreed to be Barack Obama’s running mate, he said that he wanted to be the “<a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2012-09-06-sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-bidenbre8850xj-20120906-story.html">last man in the room</a>” whenever important decisions where being made so he could give Obama his unfiltered opinion. </p>
<p>When Biden picked Harris as his running mate, he said he “asked Kamala to be the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-harris-make-appearance-historic-democratic-ticket/story?id=72327968">last voice in the room</a>,” to “[c]hallenge [his] assumptions if she disagrees,” and to “[a]sk the hard questions.” </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>As Harris begins her trailblazing term as a vice president of many firsts, she has an opportunity to either follow the past as a vice president who is largely ignored, to follow Pence as a deferential foot soldier, or to pick up Mondale’s mantle by making sure that the president isn’t shielded from points of view that he should hear.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152467/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Holzer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The vice president may be second in line for the most powerful job in the nation, but there isn’t necessarily a lot to do besides wait – unless the president wants another adviser.Joshua Holzer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Westminster CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1487622020-10-29T12:32:56Z2020-10-29T12:32:56ZWhy Americans are so enamored with election polls<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366150/original/file-20201028-13-id5l76.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=81%2C37%2C4082%2C2719&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters on election night 2016 at a Hillary Clinton party, when it became clear poll-based forecasts had been off target.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/peple-react-to-results-at-an-election-night-event-at-the-news-photo/624326122?adppopup=true">Toni L. Sandys/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Republican pollster Frank Luntz <a href="https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1319382548229681152">warned on Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pollster-frank-luntz-if-trump-defies-polls-again-in-2020-my-profession-is-done">elsewhere</a> the other day that if preelection polls in this year’s presidential race are embarrassingly <a href="https://mediamythalert.com/2016/11/09/its-like-1948-all-over-again-for-american-media/">wrong again</a>, “then the polling industry is done.”</p>
<p>It was quite the forecast.</p>
<p>While it is possible the polls will misfire, it’s exceedingly unlikely that such failure would cause the opinion research industry to implode or wither away. One reason is that election polls represent a sliver of a well-established, multibillion-dollar industry that conducts innumerable surveys on policy issues, consumer product preferences and other nonelection topics. </p>
<p>If opinion research were so vulnerable to election polling failure, the field likely would have disintegrated long ago, after the successive embarrassments of 1948 and 1952. In 1948, pollsters confidently – but <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-op-1021-poll-mistakes-20181017-story.html">wrongly</a> – predicted Thomas E. Dewey would easily unseat President Harry Truman. In 1952, pollsters turned cautious and anticipated a close race between Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson. Eisenhower won in a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/5/newsid_3783000/3783245.stm">landslide</a> that no pollster foresaw.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1319382548229681152"}"></div></p>
<p>“Predictive failure,” I note in my latest book, “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0520300963/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i7">Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections</a>,” clearly “has not killed off election polling.”</p>
<p>So what, then, accounts for its tenacity and resilience? Why are election polls still with us, despite periodic flubs, fiascoes and miscalls? Why, indeed, are many Americans so intrigued by election polling, especially during presidential campaigns?</p>
<h2>Illusion of precision</h2>
<p>The reasons are several, and not surprisingly tied to deep currents in American life. They embrace – but go well beyond – a simplistic explanation that people want to know what’s going to happen. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/obituaries/patrick-caddell-dead.html">Patrick Caddell</a>, the private pollster for President Jimmy Carter, <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520300965/lost-in-a-gallup">spoke to that tendency years ago, saying</a>, “Everyone follows polls because everything in American life is geared to the question of who’s going to win – whether it’s sports or politics or whatever. There’s a natural curiosity.”</p>
<p>More substantively, election polling projects the sense, or illusion, of precision, which holds considerable appeal in troubled times. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/09/polls-wrong-donald-trump-election">hunger for certainty</a> runs deep, especially in journalism, where reporters frequently encounter ambiguity and evasion. Since the mid-1970s, large news organizations such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/times-insider/2014/06/26/times-polling-a-history/">The New York Times</a> and CBS News have conducted or commissioned their own election polls. And reports of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2749389?seq=1">crude preelection polls</a> have been found in American newspapers published as long ago as 1824.</p>
<p>These days, polls guide, drive and help fix news media narratives about presidential elections. They are critical to shaping conventional wisdom about the competitiveness of those races.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366158/original/file-20201028-21-1liifuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="President Jimmy Carter and his pollster, Patrick Caddell." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366158/original/file-20201028-21-1liifuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366158/original/file-20201028-21-1liifuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366158/original/file-20201028-21-1liifuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366158/original/file-20201028-21-1liifuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366158/original/file-20201028-21-1liifuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366158/original/file-20201028-21-1liifuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366158/original/file-20201028-21-1liifuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Jimmy Carter and his pollster, Patrick Caddell, who once said, ‘Everyone follows polls because everything in American life is geared to the question of who’s going to win.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Jimmy_Carter_with_Pat_Caddell_-_NARA_-_176724.tif">National Archives and Records Administration/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Public ignorant of polling flubs</h2>
<p>But polls have an <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-miscalls-and-landslides-unforeseen-the-exceptional-catalog-of-polling-failure-146959">uneven record</a> in modern presidential elections – which, paradoxically, has contributed to their resilience. </p>
<p>Americans are mostly oblivious to that record. They may be vaguely familiar with the “<a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/chi-chicagodays-deweydefeats-story-story.html">Dewey defeats Truman</a>” debacle of 1948. And they may recall that election polls in 2016 veered off target in key Midwestern states, disrupting expectations that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency. </p>
<p>But other cases, such as the unforeseen landslide of 1952 or the <a href="https://swampland.time.com/2012/10/31/remembering-1980-are-the-polls-missing-something/">close election that wasn’t</a> in 1980, are not often recalled. So polling is at least somewhat shielded from reproach by unfamiliarity with its uneven performance record over time.</p>
<p>Of course, election polls are not always in error. They can redeem themselves, which is another value in American life.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366160/original/file-20201028-17-exoxzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Screenshot from RealClearPolitics.com" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366160/original/file-20201028-17-exoxzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366160/original/file-20201028-17-exoxzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366160/original/file-20201028-17-exoxzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366160/original/file-20201028-17-exoxzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366160/original/file-20201028-17-exoxzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366160/original/file-20201028-17-exoxzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366160/original/file-20201028-17-exoxzc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You want polls? RealClearPolitics has polls.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/">RealClearPolitics.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Horse races to high wires</h2>
<p>Analogies from the sporting world further help to explain polling’s tenacity. </p>
<p>Election polling, and its emphasis on who’s ahead and who’s sinking, long has been likened to a horse race – a metaphor not always agreeable to pollsters. Archibald <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/pioneers-polling/archibald-crossley">Crossley</a>, a pioneer of modern opinion research, revealed as much before the debacle of 1948, in a letter to his friend and rival pollster, George <a href="https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/pioneers-polling/george-gallup">Gallup</a>. </p>
<p>“I have a distinct impression,” Crossley wrote, “that polls are still thought of as horse-race predictions, and it seems to me that we might be able to do something jointly to prevent such a reputation.”</p>
<p>Crossley’s “distinct impression” endures. Polls, and the <a href="https://www.cjr.org/criticism/media_election_trump_fail.php">coverage of polls</a>, still invite comparisons to the horse race. </p>
<p>A better analogy, perhaps, is that polling resembles a high-wire act. A presidential election plays out over many months, typically to growing attention and building anticipation. Whether pollsters will slip up and fail in their estimates inevitably becomes a bit of mild <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/">election drama</a> itself.</p>
<p>When <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_n_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94">forecasts go awry</a>, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN1322J1">they did</a> in 2016, astonishment inevitably follows. For example, Nate Silver, the data journalist who founded the <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/">FiveThirtyEight.com</a> polling-analysis and predictions site, said Donald Trump’s victory was, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/">broadly speaking</a>, “the most shocking political development of my lifetime.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Advertisement that says " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366241/original/file-20201028-17-l4rpry.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 1940, Gallup crowed about the accuracy of its polling in an ad in the newspaper industry publication Editor & Publisher.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Screenshot, Editor & Publisher, 11/9/1940</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many pollsters insist that election polls are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2013/12/10/a-poll-is-a-snapshot-not-a-forecast/">snapshots</a>, not prophesies. But they don’t much mind crowing when their final surveys come <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1996/11/10/election-96-winners-and-weepers/6c864d05-b21c-4d3e-b16a-17e0b5407b9e/">close</a> to estimating the outcome. </p>
<p>An example of pollster braggadocio came a month after the 2016 presidential election, when Rasmussen Reports <a href="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/rasmussen_reports_calls_it_right">declared</a> that it had said all along “it was a much closer race than most other pollsters predicted. We weren’t surprised Election Night … look who came in second out of 11 top pollsters who surveyed the four-way race.”</p>
<p>George Gallup did much the same in the early years of modern survey research, taking out self-congratultory advertisements in the Editor & Publisher trade journal to tout polling successes in presidential races in 1940 and 1944. “The Gallup Poll Sets a New Record for Election Accuracy!” one of those ads proclaimed. </p>
<p>[<em>Get our most insightful politics and election stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/politics-weekly-74/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=politics-most">Sign up for The Conversation’s Politics Weekly</a>.]</p>
<h2>Which polls to follow?</h2>
<p>The proliferation of surveys over the years – Nate Silver’s site provides <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/">ratings</a> of dozens of pollsters – also allows a sort of team-sport approach to election polls: Savvy consumers can identify and follow preferred pollsters and mostly ignore the rest. Not that this is necessarily advisable, but it is an option allowed by the abundance of polls, many of which can be routinely tracked in the runup to elections at <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/">RealClearPolitics.com</a>. </p>
<p>So, for example, supporters of Donald Trump may take heart from Rasmussen surveys, which have been <a href="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct26">far more favorable</a> to the president during the 2020 campaign than, say, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html">polls conducted for CNN</a>. </p>
<p>Polling, fundamentally, is an imperfect attempt at providing insight and explanation. The desire for insight and explanation is, of course, never ending, so polls endure despite their flaws and failures. They surely will remain features of American life, no matter how next week’s election turns out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polling is an imperfect attempt at providing insight and explanation. But the public’s desire for insight and explanation about elections never ends, so polls endure despite their flaws and failures.W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1474002020-10-02T16:42:40Z2020-10-02T16:42:40ZA brief history of presidents disclosing – or trying to hide – health problems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361414/original/file-20201002-13-1t53w8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C40%2C5197%2C3494&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows speaks to reporters about President Trump's positive coronavirus test outside the White House on Oct. 2, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/white-house-chief-of-staff-mark-meadows-speaks-to-reporters-news-photo/1228846131?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump went directly to the public and announced via Twitter early on Oct. 2 that “<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1311892190680014849">Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19</a>. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!”</p>
<p>The president’s straightforward announcement was unlike many presidents in the past. My research has focused on how politicians dodge questions. I have co-authored an entry in the <a href="http://sk.sagepub.com/reference/encyclopedia-of-deception">Encyclopedia of Deception</a> with scholar <a href="http://com.miami.edu/profile/michael-beatty">Michael J. Beatty</a> about how rampant deception is when it comes to presidential health. </p>
<p>It’s one of the most common types of political deception perpetuated against journalists and the public. </p>
<p>And in a presidential campaign, public opinion polls have suggested that <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2016/most_want_to_see_clinton_trump_tax_returns_medical_records">voters want to know details</a> about the candidates’ health. </p>
<p>I will be watching with interest how the White House, the Trump campaign and the news media handle the president’s COVID-19. Here’s a roundup of how other U.S. leaders and their administrations have handled information about presidential health problems.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1311892190680014849"}"></div></p>
<h2>Lie early and often</h2>
<p>At a press briefing in 1893, President Grover Cleveland’s secretary of war told inquiring journalists that their speculations about the president having surgery were wrong. </p>
<p>The nation was in a recession, and <a href="http://www.npr.org/2011/07/06/137621988/a-yacht-a-mustache-how-a-president-hid-his-tumor">Cleveland feared</a> that his economic plan would be doomed if the public knew that his doctor thought he could have cancer. Cleveland had surgery secretly on a yacht, the tumor was removed, but the nation continued spiraling into an economic depression. </p>
<p>During President William McKinley’s second term in office, which began in 1901, his health plummeted. He had eye trouble. He was bedridden with the flu. And he was near death from pneumonia. Yet his spokesman tamped down media speculation, telling journalists that reports of the president being ill were “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mf9p-2K-CX8C&pg=PA17&lpg=PA17&dq=William+McKinley%E2%80%99s+eye+trouble+flu+foolish+stories+pneumonia&source=bl&ots=IhADBZCTkx&sig=nTih1z4yvvRkZbLKRyaGSq2DuQ4&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiry9S02ozPAhWq7YMKHc3kDlgQ6AEIHjAB#v=onepage&q=William%20McKinley%E2%80%99s%20eye%20trouble%20flu%20foolish%20stories%20pneumonia&f=false">foolish stories</a>.”</p>
<p>When Woodrow Wilson became gravely ill from what was <a href="https://www.historynet.com/how-woodrow-wilsons-hidden-illness-left-america-with-no-president-for-over-a-year.htm">rumored to be syphilis</a>, his spokesman issued press statements that the president was recovering <a href="http://ahsl.arizona.edu/about/exhibits/presidents/wilson">from fatigue</a>.</p>
<p>For the entirety of his service to Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Press Secretary Stephen Early tried to hide the president’s paralysis caused by polio by having the press snap photos of the president in ways that hid his wheelchair. Even after FDR died, Early released <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=A_liTKBNOR4C&pg=PA45&lpg=PA45&dq=Franklin+Delano+Roosevelt,+FDR+press+secretary+Stephen+Early+pronounced+organically+sound&source=bl&ots=lAqqswCF5r&sig=aK5HXgni0xqHZk3kRLFjckDan3E&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjpiM-o3YzPAhWB5oMKHXcYBVoQ6AEIODAE#v=onepage&q=Franklin%20Delano%20Roosevelt%2C%20FDR%20press%20secretary%20Stephen%20Early%20pronounced%20organically%20sound&f=false">a statement</a> that “the president was given a thorough examination by seven or eight physicians” and “he was pronounced organically sound in every way.” </p>
<p>Dwight Eisenhower was hospitalized with a heart attack, but his press operation initially told reporters <a href="http://www.ozy.com/flashback/president-eisenhowers-14-billion-heart-attack/65157">he had an upset stomach</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="FDR in a wheelchair" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1011&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1011&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361417/original/file-20201002-20-32j32a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1011&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An unusual photo of FDR in a wheelchair – his press secretary tried to avoid images of the president in his wheelchair.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-president-franklin-d-roosevelt-poses-with-his-dog-news-photo/137822922?adppopup=true">Margaret Suckley/PhotoQuest/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is even precedent for presidential staffers lying about their own health. </p>
<p>William Howard Taft’s press spokesman, Archie Butt, was sickened from stress and fatigue. He flew to Rome to escape and get rested. Rather than admit that he was exhausted – which would seem reasonable for a person working in such a high-stress position – he told the press corps that his trip was to <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mf9p-2K-CX8C&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q=taft%20pope&f=false">meet with the pope</a>.</p>
<p>Sometimes presidents lie about medical conditions to distract from other, non-health issues. When John F. Kennedy was holding secret meetings dealing with the Soviet Union and the <a href="http://jfklibrary.tumblr.com/post/33959482484/october-20-1962-day-5-of-the-cuban-missile">Cuban Missile Crisis</a>, Press Secretary Pierre Salinger told reporters that the president’s schedule changes and lack of public appearances were due to a cold. He even released the president’s symptoms and temperature. </p>
<p>Perhaps proving that he wasn’t talented at deception, Salinger used the same cold excuse to explain Vice President Lyndon Johnson’s <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=mf9p-2K-CX8C&pg=PA139&lpg=PA139&dq=salinger+Vice+President+Lyndon+Johnson+flight+from+Hawaii+to+the+White+House+at+the+same+time.&source=bl&ots=IhADBZDThy&sig=ndBfAN_AVOD69evAXLp-QcJd9os&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj56_aD3ozPAhWky4MKHeicB2EQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=salinger%20Vice%20President%20Lyndon%20Johnson%20flight%20from%20Hawaii%20to%20the%20White%20House%20at%20the%20same%20time.&f=false">impromptu flight</a> from Hawaii to the White House at the same time. The Washington Post’s editor suspected the colds were awfully coincidental, but Salinger refused to comment. </p>
<p>As the political public relations adage goes: <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/09/12/krauthammer_clintons_incapable_of_telling_the_truth_another_case_of_coverup_being_worse_than_the_crime.html">The cover-up is worse</a> than the crime. </p>
<h2>Trump, Nixon and candidate debates</h2>
<p>In 2016, both U.S. presidential candidates <a href="http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnn-panel-devolves-into-shoutfest-over-trumps-taxes-medical-records/">Donald Trump</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/us/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign.html">Hillary Clinton</a> were caught deceiving the public about their health. Each candidate <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-health-doctor-490836">accused the other</a> of lying about medical conditions.</p>
<p>Questions may now arise as to whether Trump gave a subpar performance in the debate because of his health, although presumably he and his wife and staff were tested for COVID-19 prior to the debate.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, it is worth noting that in the most famous televised debate in U.S. history, the <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/first-kennedy-nixon-debate">Sept. 26, 1960, Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon</a> showdown – after which many voters said they decided to vote for Kennedy – Nixon was ill and unrested. Nixon had been in the hospital a couple of weeks earlier and looked a little gaunt from having recently lost five pounds. </p>
<p>Nixon had been campaigning intensely and did not prepare for the debate. He held a campaign event that morning with the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners, and never met with his staff and didn’t even take their calls. Meanwhile, Kennedy had been fiercely preparing with his advisers at the Knickerbocker Hotel in Chicago.</p>
<p>Similarly, Trump had held several public events prior to the debate and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/28/politics/trump-debate-prep/index.html">did not spend time preparing in private</a> for it, as Biden did. </p>
<p>After an initial announcement with remarkable transparency, it remains to be seen whether Trump will continue in that vein or adopt the more traditional practices of presidents who were less than open about their health.</p>
<p><em>This story has been corrected to clarify that it was rumored that President Woodrow Wilson had syphilis.</em></p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-short-history-of-presidents-lying-about-their-health-65393">an article</a> originally published on September 13, 2016.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147400/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David E. Clementson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Trump was direct in announcing he had COVID-19. But presidents in the past have been very good at deceiving the public about the state of their health. Which direction will Trump go now?David E. Clementson, Assistant Professor in the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of GeorgiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1459612020-09-23T12:31:53Z2020-09-23T12:31:53ZWhen noted journalists bashed political polls as nothing more than ‘a fragmentary snapshot’ of a moment in time<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359350/original/file-20200922-22-48n9u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C7%2C5100%2C3428&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Legendary New York City columnist Jimmy Breslin, right, ready to do shoe-leather journalistic research in a bar, said preelection polls were "monstrous frauds."</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-journalist-and-writer-jimmy-breslin-with-a-copy-of-news-photo/149309915?adppopup=true">Michael Brennan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Poll-bashing – the aggressive, even extreme lambasting of pollsters and their work – used to be blood sport among prominent American journalists.</p>
<p>Mike Royko, one of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1997/04/30/famed-chicago-columnist-mike-royko-dies-at-age-64/72e75663-21c3-4ee2-b4af-22fb6ab10cbd/">Chicago’s most famous if cantankerous</a> journalists, was a poll-basher. <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1992-10-28-9204070637-story.html">He advised</a> readers of his Chicago Tribune column in 1992, “If a pollster calls you, lie your head off. No harm will be done, and some good might come of it.”</p>
<p>Arianna Huffington, founder of Huffington Post, also was a poll-basher. From the late 1990s into mid-2000s, she conducted an <a href="http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0010/24/tl.00.html">intermittent and ultimately failed campaign</a> “to get the dominance of polling out of our political life.” The “Partnership for a Poll-Free America,” she called it. </p>
<p>Jimmy Breslin, a blustery and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/19/business/media/jimmy-breslin-dead-ny-columnist-author.html">legendary columnist</a> for New York City newspapers, was a poll-basher, too. </p>
<p>“Anybody who believes these national political polls are giving you facts is a gullible fool,” Breslin stormed in his Newsday column in 2004. <a href="https://www.villagevoice.com/2004/09/14/say-what-24/">He called preelection polls “monstrous frauds</a>” because at the time they did not reach the comparatively few households having only cellphones. They do now, but in 2004, Breslin figured the polls were missing younger, cellphone-using voters whose support, he wrongly predicted, would send Democrat John Kerry to the White House. </p>
<p>Royko, Huffington and Breslin were among the well-known journalists who resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. They did not denounce polls every day, but their resentment ran deep. And they had plenty of company in journalism.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359349/original/file-20200922-24-qrtg30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Mike Royko, having breakfast and a cigarette." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359349/original/file-20200922-24-qrtg30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359349/original/file-20200922-24-qrtg30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359349/original/file-20200922-24-qrtg30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359349/original/file-20200922-24-qrtg30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359349/original/file-20200922-24-qrtg30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359349/original/file-20200922-24-qrtg30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359349/original/file-20200922-24-qrtg30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mike Royko, the grouchy Chicago Tribune columnist, was a noted poll-basher.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/JOURNALISTMIKEROYKO/2c2e901f9ce5da11af9f0014c2589dfb/photo?Query=Mike%20AND%20Royko&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=4&currentItemNo=1">AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Fragmentary snapshot’</h2>
<p>Eric <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/07/10/arts/eric-sevareid-79-is-dead-commentator-and-reporter.html">Sevareid</a>, the longtime CBS News commentator, confessed to “a secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1974/12/15/archives/walter-lippmann-political-analyst-dead-at-85-walter-lippmann.html">Walter Lippmann</a>, one of journalism’s titans, wrote in 1936 at the dawn of modern opinion research, “I should be very happy if all the polls turned out to be wrong.” Election polls, he said, were “a nuisance.”</p>
<p>Poll-bashing, which I consider in my latest book, “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0520300963/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i7">Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections</a>,” arose from several sources, including doubts whether polls really could read the American mind. </p>
<p>Broadcast legend Edward R. Murrow expressed such sentiments in 1952, after polls failed to anticipate Dwight Eisenhower’s <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/5/newsid_3783000/3783245.stm">landslide election</a> to the presidency. The lopsided result, Murrow said on CBS Radio, signaled that voters “are mysterious and their motives are not to be measured by mechanical means.” Those who believe that Americans are predictable, Murrow said, “have been undone again.”</p>
<p>Other journalists resented the challenge polling posed to “<a href="https://pressthink.org/2015/04/good-old-fashioned-shoe-leather-reporting/">shoe-leather</a>” reporting, the celebrated reportorial technique of direct observation. </p>
<p><a href="https://niemanreports.org/articles/a-political-reporters-toolbox/">“Cover voters, not polls,”</a> was advice the now-defunct Committee of Concerned Journalists offered years ago. “It is voters — what they think, how they live, what they are worried about — that are important (and also more interesting).” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/25/business/media/haynes-johnson-journalist-and-author-dies-at-81.html">Haynes Johnson</a> of The Washington Post was an advocate of shoe-leather reporting, and a harsh critic of polls. During presidential election campaigns in the 1970s and ’80s, Johnson turned out long, interview-based articles about the moods of American voters. </p>
<p>After Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter in 1980 in a near-landslide that <a href="https://swampland.time.com/2012/10/31/remembering-1980-are-the-polls-missing-something/">no pollster saw coming</a>, Johnson <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1980/11/16/election-day-had-a-few-lessons-to-teach-the-out-of-touch-set/4de0feae-d9b9-4802-8d15-30e81e13714a/">scoffed</a>, “Polls are no substitute for hard reporting. In many cases, as it turns out, reporters would have been better served by relying on their own legwork, which in turn produces their own political instincts, than on the presumably scientific samples of voters supplied by the pollsters.” </p>
<p>In a C-SPAN interview in 1991, Johnson declared, <a href="http://booknotes.org/Watch/16899-1/Haynes-Johnson">“I hate the polls,”</a> adding that he wished “we would disband all polls” because they offer only “a little fragmentary snapshot of a moment in time.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A reporter taking notes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359373/original/file-20200922-14-z2hb7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/359373/original/file-20200922-14-z2hb7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359373/original/file-20200922-14-z2hb7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359373/original/file-20200922-14-z2hb7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359373/original/file-20200922-14-z2hb7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359373/original/file-20200922-14-z2hb7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/359373/original/file-20200922-14-z2hb7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The journalists who criticized political polling thought real reporting did a better job of reflecting voters’ opinions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/writing-notebook-reporter-royalty-free-image/514688797?adppopup=true">snowflock/Getty</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Poll-bashing eases</h2>
<p>Over the past three or four presidential election cycles, though, virulent poll-bashing has ebbed in American journalism. </p>
<p>It’s not that journalists have become more polite. And it’s not as if preelection polling has become immune from error. Far from it.</p>
<p>A number of factors explain the ebbing of poll-bashing. Outspoken critics like Royko, Breslin and Johnson are dead. Huffington is no longer associated with what is now HuffPost. </p>
<p>Each election cycle serves in effect to reconfirm the importance of poll-taking at major newsgathering organizations such as The New York Times and CBS News, where such operations <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/09/us/pollpage-intro.html">date to the mid-1970s</a>.</p>
<p>The decline of poll-bashing also has coincided with the rise of the data journalist, best personified by Nate Silver, founder of the election forecasting and analysis site <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/">FiveThirtyEight.com</a>.</p>
<p>Silver became a sort of celebrity after his poll-based forecast model <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/media/10silver.html">accurately predicted</a> the outcomes in 49 states in the 2008 presidential election. That status only deepened when his model <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/nate-silver-election-forecasts-right">correctly anticipated</a> how all 50 states would vote in the election in 2012, when content at Silver’s site was licensed by The New York Times. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Silver’s forecast went askew in 2016, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/">projecting Hillary Clinton would win</a> the presidency with 302 electoral votes, a haul that was to include Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Donald Trump won those states by narrow margins and, with them, the White House.</p>
<p>Because few if any prominent journalists figured Trump had any chance of winning the election, the postelection bashing of Silver was <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/155761/fall-nate-silver">mostly subdued</a>. </p>
<p>In 2016, after all, polling failure was also <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/513735-why-polling-failure-is-often-journalistic-failure">journalistic failure</a>, as polls and poll-based forecasts helped cement the media narrative that Clinton was the odds-on favorite to win.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145961/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There was a time when well-known journalists resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. One even said he felt “secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” Why did they feel this way?W. Joseph Campbell, Professor of Communication Studies, American University School of CommunicationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311782020-02-07T13:50:14Z2020-02-07T13:50:14ZNational Prayer Breakfast was a moment for leaders to show humility – Trump changed it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314043/original/file-20200206-43102-1v5ew0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump holds up a newspaper to show a headline that reads, 'Acquitted,' at the 68th annual National Prayer Breakfast, in Washington D.C..</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Trump/f4a417443712429088d83627217f46ff/1/0">AP Photo/ Evan Vucci</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A heaping plate of partisan politics, sprinkled with religious faith, topped the menu at the 68th National Prayer Breakfast. </p>
<p>On the morning of Feb. 6, President Donald Trump surprised listeners by eschewing traditional themes of unity, humility and reconciliation. Instead he called out <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-impeachment-inquiry/trump-holds-newspaper-front-page-headline-acquitted-national-prayer-breakfast-n1131421">“dishonest and corrupt people”</a> who tried to “destroy” him and “hurt” the nation. </p>
<p>And though he did not name Sen. Mitt Romney, who voted for one article of impeachment, and U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi, who steered the impeachment effort through Congress, the president <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/02/06/803445433/trump-blasts-romney-over-impeachment-vote">lashed out</a> at those who he believes use religion to justify hypocritical actions. Romney, a member of the The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, said his religious faith prompted his vote, and Pelosi, a Roman Catholic, said she prays for the president. </p>
<p>An annual Washington, D.C. event, the National Prayer Breakfast is an opportunity for new friends and old associates, from 50 states and 140 countries, to break bread and forge fellowship in Jesus’ name. As a <a href="https://communicationleadership.usc.edu/fellows/faculty/diane-winston/">scholar</a> of American religious history, I follow the annual the get-together because I am intrigued by how political leaders approach religion. </p>
<p>Convened on the first Thursday in February, the gathering, known as the Presidential Prayer Breakfast until 1970, has always included the American head of state. </p>
<p>Trump, putting his personal stamp on the event, has used it to praise his accomplishments, malign his enemies, and thank God for being on his side. </p>
<h2>Faith first</h2>
<p>President Dwight Eisenhower began the tradition with the first breakfast in 1953. While Eisenhower was initially wary of attending a prayer breakfast, evangelist <a href="http://www.basicbooks.com/full-details?isbn=9780465049493">Billy Graham convinced him</a> it was the right move. </p>
<p>Speaking to an audience that included Graham, hotel magnate Conrad Hilton and 400 political, religious and business leaders, Eisenhower <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/theoval/2016/02/04/how-presidents-pray-prayer-breakfast-eisenhower-obama/79786384/">proclaimed</a> that “all free government is firmly founded in a deeply felt religious faith.” </p>
<p>Today, “Ike” – the 34th president’s nickname – is not remembered as being deeply religious.</p>
<p>However, he was raised in a pious household of <a href="http://www.reformedreader.org/riverbrethren.htm">River Brethren</a>, a Mennonite offshoot. His parents named him after <a href="https://www.moody.edu/about/our-bold-legacy/d-l-moody/">Dwight Moody</a>, a famous 19th-century evangelist who likened the state of the world to a sinking ship and stated,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“God has given me a lifeboat and said … ‘Moody save all you can.” </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155239/original/image-20170201-29898-rspah0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155239/original/image-20170201-29898-rspah0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155239/original/image-20170201-29898-rspah0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155239/original/image-20170201-29898-rspah0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155239/original/image-20170201-29898-rspah0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155239/original/image-20170201-29898-rspah0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155239/original/image-20170201-29898-rspah0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Dwight D. Eisenhower in a personal chat with Rev. Dr. Billy Graham in Gettysburg on Sept. 8, 1961.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Ziegler0</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Soon after his election in 1952, Eisenhower told Graham that the <a href="http://www.basicbooks.com/full-details?isbn=9780465049493">country needed a spiritual renewal</a>. For Eisenhower, faith, patriotism and free enterprise were the fundamentals of a strong nation. But of the three, faith came first. </p>
<p>As historian <a href="https://history.princeton.edu/people/kevin-m-kruse">Kevin Kruse</a> describes in <a href="http://www.basicbooks.com/full-details?isbn=9780465049493">“One Nation Under God</a>,” the new president made that clear his very first day in office, when he began the day with a preinaugural worship service at the National Presbyterian Church. </p>
<p>At the swearing in, Eisenhower’s hand rested on two Bibles. When the oath of office concluded, the new president delivered a spontaneous prayer. To the surprise of those around him, Eisenhower called on God to “make full and complete our dedication to the service of the people.”</p>
<p>However, when <a href="http://www.fcarlsonlib.org/AboutUs/FrankCarlson/FrankCarlson.php/">Frank Carlson</a>, a senator from Kansas, and a devout Baptist and Christian leader, asked his friend and fellow Kansan to attend a prayer breakfast, Eisenhower – in a move that seemed out of character – refused. </p>
<p>But Graham interceded, Hilton offered his hotel and the rest is history.</p>
<h2>A strategic move</h2>
<p>It is possible that Graham may have used the breakfast’s theme, “Government under God,” to convince the president to attend. Throughout his tenure, Eisenhower promoted God and religion.</p>
<p>When he <a href="https://spectator.org/38107_eisenhowers-religion/">famously said to the press</a>, “Our government has no sense unless it is founded in a deeply felt religious faith, and I don’t care what it is,” he was not displaying a superficial attitude to faith. Rather, as Ike’s grandson David Eisenhower explained, he was <a href="http://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Going-Home-To-Glory/David-Eisenhower/9781439190913">discussing America’s “Judeo-Christian heritage.”</a> </p>
<p>The truth is, Ike was a Christian, but he also was a realist. Working for a “government under God” was more inclusive than calling for a Christian nation. It also was strategic. Under his watch, the phrase “under God” was added to the Pledge of Allegiance, and <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/president-eisenhower-signs-in-god-we-trust-into-law">“In God We Trust”</a> imprinted on the nation’s currency. But legitimating the National Prayer Breakfast was a signature achievement. </p>
<h2>A guide for the powerful</h2>
<p>The prayer breakfast’s success would have pleased <a href="http://thefellowshipfoundation.org/history.html">Abraham Vereide</a>, the Methodist minister behind the meetings. Vereide immigrated from Norway in 1905 when he was 19. For many years, he ministered to the down and out – society’s cast-offs. </p>
<p>He started Goodwill Industries in Seattle and provided relief work throughout the Depression. But seeing how little progress he’d made, Vereide turned his attention from helping the poor to guiding the powerful.</p>
<p>According to author <a href="http://english.dartmouth.edu/people/jeff-sharlet">Jeff Sharlet</a>, <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/9780060559793/the-family">Vereide’s ultimate goal</a> was a “ruling class of Christ-committed men bound in a fellowship of the anointed.” A fundamentalist and a theocrat, he believed that strong, Christ-centered men should rule and that “militant” unions should be smashed. Between 1935 and his death in 1969, he mentored many politicians and businessmen who agreed.</p>
<p>During the 1940s, <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/9780060559793/the-family">Vereide ran small prayer breakfasts</a> for local leaders and businessmen in Washington, D.C. The groups were popular, but he wanted to spread and enlarge them. Sen. Frank Carlson was Vereide’s close friend and supporter. When Eisenhower, the first Republican president since Herbert Hoover, was elected, Vereide, Graham and Carlson saw an opportunity to extend their shared mission of nurturing Christian leaders. </p>
<h2>Using the breakfast moment</h2>
<p>In the years since, presidents have used the prayer breakfast to burnish their image and promote their agendas. In 1964, President Lyndon Johnson <a href="http://cdsutherland.blogspot.com/2015/02/lyndon-b-johnsons-remarks-at-12th.html">spoke about the harrowing days</a> following John F. Kennedy’s assassination and his desire to build a memorial for God in the nation’s capital.</p>
<p>Richard Nixon, speaking after his election in 1969, said that prayer and faith would help America’s fight for global peace and freedom. In 1998, Bill Clinton, faced with allegations that he had a sexual relationship with a White House intern, asked for prayers to <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?99829-1/national-prayer-breakfast">“take our country to a higher ground</a>.”</p>
<p>But while presidents have been cautious about their prayers, preferring generalities to specifics, keynote speakers – who are not announced until the morning of the event – are forthright. </p>
<p>In 1995, Mother Teresa <a href="http://www.priestsforlife.org/brochures/mtspeech.html">condemned abortion</a> as President Clinton, who supported women’s right to choose, quietly listened. In 2013, pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson castigated the nation’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83IiLN_EaF4">“moral decay and fiscal irresponsibility”</a> while President Barack Obama sat in the audience. </p>
<h2>More changes with time</h2>
<p>In 2017, his maiden appearance, Trump broke precedent with a powerful no-holds-barred <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/02/donald-trump-national-prayer-breakfast/97392348/">speech</a> that put other countries on notice, threatened church-state separation and mocked actor Arnold Schwarzenegger. At the time, his performance stunned listeners who expected the breakfast to be a staid event. </p>
<p>This year, Trump again had his say at the morning meeting. Supporters tuned out his vitriol and focused on his example of strong Christian leadership.</p>
<p>“We know that our nation is stronger, our future is brighter, and our joy is greater when we turn to God and ask him to shed his grace on our lives,” <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/02/06/trump_at_national_prayer_breakfast_corrupt_people_put_me_through_terrible_ordeal.html">Trump said</a>. “On Tuesday, I addressed Congress on the state of the Union and the great American comeback. That’s what it is. Our country has never done better than it is doing right now.”</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article <a href="https://theconversation.com/national-prayer-breakfast-what-does-its-history-reveal-71978">first published</a> on Feb. 1, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diane Winston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The National Prayer Breakfast has been a time to forge friendships. But, as a scholar says, Trump used it to praise his accomplishments, malign his enemies, and thank God for being on his side.Diane Winston, Associate Professor and Knight Center Chair in Media & Religion, USC Annenberg School for Communication and JournalismLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1265752020-02-03T13:53:04Z2020-02-03T13:53:04ZWhat do kids think of the president?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312333/original/file-20200128-81395-pape0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Trump with children at the annual Easter Egg Roll at the White House, April 22, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-hands-out-the-whistle-that-he-blew-news-photo/1144393486?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ask children about politics, and they’ve got something to say.</p>
<p>The president of the United States, said a fifth-grade girl in 1958, “has the right to stop bad things before they start.”</p>
<p>In 2017, a fourth-grade boy said the president “lies, (is) destroying our country.”</p>
<p>And in 2018, a sixth-grade girl said the president “goes to Florida, plays golf, talks with other political leaders, tries to help our country, insults immigrants and people from other countries.”</p>
<p>Political views begin to form in childhood. Children learn who political leaders are and develop attitudes about both leaders and political institutions. </p>
<p>One consequence of rising levels of <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/vox/the-ezra-klein-show/e/54291917">negative partisanship</a> (as compared to joining a party because you feel positively toward them, their politics or their leaders) and <a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/oct/30/volume-of-negative-political-ads-increased-in-2018/">negative campaigning</a> is that today’s children are exposed to more negative messages about politics and political figures than children in the past.</p>
<p>What do kids today think about the presidency and the president? How does this compare to what children thought in the 1950s? </p>
<p><iframe id="sI3B2" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/sI3B2/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Office distinct from occupant</h2>
<p>We are <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/1gdxfvzlobh07kj/Oxley%20et%20al%20%282020%29%20Children%27s%20Views%20of%20the%20Presidency.pdf?dl=0">political scientists who conducted this research</a> because we want to understand what young children think about politics. </p>
<p>We draw our conclusions from surveys and interviews we conducted in schools in fall 2017 and winter 2018. Nearly 500 children ages 6 to 12 across four locations in the United States participated. </p>
<p>The children answered questions about the importance of the office of the president and the president himself. We compare this with data reported in published research on children’s views in the 1950s and early 2000s. </p>
<p>Overall, today’s children continue to view the presidency as an important office and to understand the mechanics of the president’s day-to-day life. At the same time, however, children hold far less favorable views of the president’s personal characteristics than they did in the 1950s. </p>
<p>There was no data on the topics we explore collected between the late 1950s and 2000, so we can’t comment on or compare our findings to the views of children during that period.</p>
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<h2>One of ‘four most important people’</h2>
<p>Do children respect the office of the president? </p>
<p>Children today, just like children over the past 50 years, have positive views of the presidency. In our sample, 72% of students selected “president” as one of the “four most important people” out of a list of 10 adult roles, such as doctor, schoolteacher and judge. </p>
<p>If we look over time, kids’ attitudes are stable. Eight in 10 fourth graders in 2017-2018, as well as in the 1950s and 2000, saw the president as important. </p>
<p>When we asked the children, “What kinds of things do you think the president does?” children largely provided factual descriptions of the president’s daily activities.</p>
<p>The president “Makes Laws, Does papers, Tells the other people what to do,” one fourth grader told us. Like 1950s children, more than three-quarters of children in our study categorize the president’s activities in these factual ways. </p>
<p>Other children today see the president’s activities as positive: 15% of the kids see the president as caring and helping. </p>
<p>A small portion of our sample (7%) listed something negative when describing the president’s activities, such as the child who wrote that the president “starts a war, all about money, make fun of people.” </p>
<p>In short, most children see the presidency in factual and positive ways. </p>
<h2>More negative views now</h2>
<p>But when we ask children about the president (not mentioning President Donald Trump’s name, just the office), kids have far more negative views. Again, we asked the same questions as were used in the 1950s, asking children about the president’s honesty, work ethic and knowledge, as well as a general assessment of the president. </p>
<p>Children in our study evaluated the president much more negatively than did children in the 1950s. </p>
<p>Nearly three-quarters of the 1950s children viewed the president as more honest than other people. Today, only 18% view the president as more honest than others. </p>
<p>In contrast, 1% of 1950s children considered the president “less honest than other people”; 49% of today’s children hold this view. </p>
<p>Children’s assessments of the president’s work ethic and knowledge levels also have become less favorable over time. Additionally, the global assessment of the president turned markedly negative: 3% of 1950s children viewed the president as “not a good person” compared to 51% of children in our sample. </p>
<h2>Where does Trump fit?</h2>
<p>Do today’s children see other political leaders in a negative light, or have we uncovered a Donald Trump-specific effect? </p>
<p>We asked children about the performance of both former President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton (had she been elected to the presidency). </p>
<p>The children view former President Obama very positively (72% said he did a “very good job”), similar to how children viewed President Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s. </p>
<p>On the other hand, only 37% reported that Hillary Clinton would have done a “very good job” and 17% reported that Donald Trump is doing a “very good job” as president. In short, our study hints that today’s children view Trump especially, but not uniquely, negatively. </p>
<p>[<em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126575/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Children think about politics. And based on surveys from 1950 to today, it seems children hold far less favorable views of the president’s personal characteristics now than they did 70 years ago.Mirya Holman, Associate Professor, Tulane UniversityAngela L. Bos, Associate Professor of Political Science and Associate Dean for Experiential Learning, The College of WoosterJ Celeste Lay, Associate Professor of Political Science, Tulane UniversityJill S. Greenlee, Associate Professor of Politics and Women's, Gender & Sexuality Studies, Brandeis UniversityZoe M. Oxley, Professor of Political Science, Union CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1298442020-01-16T18:38:26Z2020-01-16T18:38:26ZUS and Iran have a long, troubled history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310315/original/file-20200115-134764-71x1uk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C233%2C6490%2C2841&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/american-flag-iranian-political-map-shape-1610522878">Benny Marty/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Relations between the United States and Iran have been fraught for decades – at least since the U.S. helped overthrow a democracy-minded prime minister, Mohammed Mossadegh, in August 1953. The U.S. then supported the long, repressive reign of the shah of Iran, whose security services brutalized Iranian citizens for decades.</p>
<p><iframe id="KMqX1" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KMqX1/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The two countries have been particularly hostile to each other since Iranian students took over the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in November 1979, resulting in, among other consequences, <a href="https://www.state.gov/iran-sanctions/">economic sanctions</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-countries-in-conflict-like-iran-and-the-us-still-talk-to-each-other-129591">severing of formal diplomatic relations</a> between the nations. Since 1984, the U.S. State Department has listed Iran as a “<a href="https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism/">state sponsor of terrorism</a>,” alleging the Iranian government provides terrorists with <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2013/224826.htm">training, money and weapons</a>. </p>
<p>Some of the major events in U.S.-Iran relations highlight the differences between the nations’ views, but others arguably presented real opportunities for reconciliation.</p>
<iframe src="https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/timeline3/latest/embed/index.html?source=1lbZCBLjB3WGNLuiO7_pUiMfahVbpzoJTU-Wkqh_DWG0&font=Default&lang=en&initial_zoom=1&height=650" width="100%" height="650" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0"></iframe>
<h2>1953: US overthows Mossadegh</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310082/original/file-20200114-151825-1buge0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310082/original/file-20200114-151825-1buge0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310082/original/file-20200114-151825-1buge0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=825&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310082/original/file-20200114-151825-1buge0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=825&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310082/original/file-20200114-151825-1buge0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=825&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310082/original/file-20200114-151825-1buge0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1037&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310082/original/file-20200114-151825-1buge0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1037&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310082/original/file-20200114-151825-1buge0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1037&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mohammed Mossadegh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mohammed_Mossadegh_in_middle_age.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1951, the Iranian Parliament chose a new prime minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, who then led lawmakers to vote in favor of <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bp-and-iran-the-forgotten-history">taking over the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company</a>, expelling the company’s British owners and saying they wanted to turn oil profits into investments in the Iranian people. The U.S. feared disruption in the global oil supply and worried about Iran falling prey to Soviet influence. The British feared the loss of cheap Iranian oil. </p>
<p>Unable to settle the dispute, President Dwight Eisenhower decided it was best for the U.S. and the U.K. to get rid of Mossadegh. Operation Ajax, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/16/world/secrets-history-cia-iran-special-report-plot-convulsed-iran-53-79.html">a joint CIA-British operation</a>, convinced the shah of Iran, the country’s monarch, to dismiss Mossadegh and drive him from office by force. Mossadegh was replaced by a much more Western-friendly prime minister, <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/world/mideast/041600iran-cia-index.html?_r=0">hand-picked by the CIA</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310071/original/file-20200114-151844-12qrf5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310071/original/file-20200114-151844-12qrf5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310071/original/file-20200114-151844-12qrf5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310071/original/file-20200114-151844-12qrf5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310071/original/file-20200114-151844-12qrf5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310071/original/file-20200114-151844-12qrf5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310071/original/file-20200114-151844-12qrf5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310071/original/file-20200114-151844-12qrf5n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Demonstrators in Tehran demand the establishment of an Islamic Republic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-Associated-Press-International-News-IRAN-/7598c27645984aa982d79f639e2b9986/18/0">AP Photo/Saris</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1979: Revolutionaries oust the shah, take hostages</h2>
<p>After <a href="https://www.theperspective.com/subjective-timeline/politics/us-iran-relations-ww2-hostage-crisis/">more than 25 years</a> of relative stability in U.S.-Iran relations, the <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-politics-revolution/29752729.html">Iranian public had grown unhappy</a> with the social and economic conditions that developed under the dictatorial rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. </p>
<p>Pahlavi enriched himself and used American aid to fund the military while many Iranians lived in poverty. Dissent was often violently quashed by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/05/09/savak-a-feared-and-pervasive-force/ad609959-d47b-4b7f-8c8d-b388116df90c/">SAVAK, the shah’s security service</a>. In January 1979, <a href="https://apnews.com/343d87fdb960424e9ec0f4a90dc64fcb">the shah left Iran</a>, ostensibly to seek cancer treatment. <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/ayatollah-khomeini-returns-to-iran">Two weeks later, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile</a> in Iraq and led a drive to abolish the monarchy and proclaim an Islamic government.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310075/original/file-20200114-151834-l4t7a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310075/original/file-20200114-151834-l4t7a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310075/original/file-20200114-151834-l4t7a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310075/original/file-20200114-151834-l4t7a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310075/original/file-20200114-151834-l4t7a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310075/original/file-20200114-151834-l4t7a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310075/original/file-20200114-151834-l4t7a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310075/original/file-20200114-151834-l4t7a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Iranian students at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran show a blindfolded American hostage to the crowd in November 1979.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Iran-Hostage-Crisis-Timeline/298028f123e3417bad960911275bd097/41/0">AP Photo, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In October 1979, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/05/17/magazine/why-carter-admitted-the-shah.html">President Jimmy Carter agreed to allow the shah</a> to come to the U.S. to seek advanced medical treatment. Outraged Iranian students <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1979/11/05/archives/teheran-students-seize-us-embassy-and-hold-hostages-ask-shahs.html">stormed the U.S. Embassy</a> in Tehran on Nov. 4, taking 52 Americans hostage. That convinced Carter to sever U.S. diplomatic relations with Iran on April 7, 1980. </p>
<p>Two weeks later, the U.S. military launched a mission to rescue the hostages, but <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/05/the-desert-one-debacle/304803/">it failed, with aircraft crashes in the Iranian desert</a> killing eight U.S. servicemembers.</p>
<p>The shah died in Egypt in July 1980, but the hostages weren’t released until Jan. 20, 1981, after 444 days of captivity. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310079/original/file-20200114-151839-1toy017.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310079/original/file-20200114-151839-1toy017.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310079/original/file-20200114-151839-1toy017.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310079/original/file-20200114-151839-1toy017.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310079/original/file-20200114-151839-1toy017.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310079/original/file-20200114-151839-1toy017.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310079/original/file-20200114-151839-1toy017.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310079/original/file-20200114-151839-1toy017.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An Iranian cleric, left, and an Iranian soldier wear gas masks to protect themselves against Iraqi chemical-weapons attacks in May 1988.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-iranian-clergyman-wearing-a-turban-and-gas-mask-stands-news-photo/104045722">Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1980-1988: US tacitly sides with Iraq</h2>
<p>In September 1980, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4260420.stm">Iraq invaded Iran</a>, an escalation of the two countries’ regional rivalry and religious differences: Iraq was governed by Sunni Muslims but had a Shia Muslim majority population; <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/18/the-sunni-shia-divide-where-they-live-what-they-believe-and-how-they-view-each-other/">Iran was led and populated mostly by Shiites</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. was concerned that the conflict would limit the flow of Middle Eastern oil and wanted to ensure the conflict didn’t affect its close ally, Saudi Arabia.</p>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-prove-america-helped-saddam-as-he-gassed-iran/">supported Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein</a> in his fight against the anti-American Iranian regime. As a result, the U.S. mostly turned a blind eye toward Iraq’s <a href="https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB82/iraq24.pdf">“almost daily” use of chemical weapons</a> against Iran. </p>
<p>U.S. officials moderated their usual opposition to those illegal and inhumane weapons because the U.S. State Department did not “<a href="https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB82/iraq25.pdf">wish to play into Iran’s hands</a> by fueling its propaganda against Iraq.” In 1988, <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/middle-east/iran-iraq-war">the war ended in a stalemate</a>, with a combined total of more than 500,000 military deaths and 100,000 civilians dead on both sides.</p>
<h2>1981-1986: US secretly sells weapons to Iran</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310081/original/file-20200114-151834-1nysw20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310081/original/file-20200114-151834-1nysw20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310081/original/file-20200114-151834-1nysw20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=860&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310081/original/file-20200114-151834-1nysw20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=860&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310081/original/file-20200114-151834-1nysw20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=860&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310081/original/file-20200114-151834-1nysw20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1080&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310081/original/file-20200114-151834-1nysw20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1080&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310081/original/file-20200114-151834-1nysw20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1080&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lt. Col. Oliver North is sworn in to testify before Congress about a U.S. deal to sell weapons to Iran, in breach of an embargo, and use the money to support rebels in Nicaragua.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-A-DC-USA-APHS-Iran-Contra-North/6873ba10cf0d45d6ac31f6063ad350d0/90/0">AP Photo/Lana Harris</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/Iran%20Sanctions.pdf">imposed an arms embargo</a> after Iran was designated a state sponsor terrorism in 1984. That left the Iranian military, in the middle of its war with Iraq, desperate for weapons and aircraft and vehicle parts to keep fighting. </p>
<p>The Reagan administration <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/08/world/iran-pipeline-hidden-chapter-special-report-us-said-have-allowed-israel-sell.html">decided that the embargo would likely push Iran</a> to seek support from the Soviet Union, the U.S.’s rival in the Cold War. Rather than formally ending the embargo, U.S. officials agreed to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/08/world/iran-pipeline-hidden-chapter-special-report-us-said-have-allowed-israel-sell.html">secretly sell weapons to Iran</a> starting in 1981. Later, the transactions were justified as incentives to help Iran persuade militants to release <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/11/27/books/arms-for-hostages-plain-and-simple.html">U.S. hostages being held in Lebanon</a>. </p>
<p>The last shipment, of anti-tank missiles, was in October 1986. In November of that year, a Lebanese magazine exposed the deal. That revelation sparked the Iran-Contra scandal in the U.S., in which Reagan’s officials were found to have collected money from Iran for the weapons, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1987/07/10/world/iran-contra-hearings-boland-amendments-what-they-provided.html">illegally sent those funds to anti-socialist rebels</a> – the Contras – in Nicaragua.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310083/original/file-20200114-151867-1rhhgcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310083/original/file-20200114-151867-1rhhgcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310083/original/file-20200114-151867-1rhhgcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310083/original/file-20200114-151867-1rhhgcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310083/original/file-20200114-151867-1rhhgcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310083/original/file-20200114-151867-1rhhgcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310083/original/file-20200114-151867-1rhhgcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310083/original/file-20200114-151867-1rhhgcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">At a mass funeral for 76 of the 290 people killed in the shootdown of Iran Air 655, mourners hold up a sign depicting the incident.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-I-IRN-APHS166203-USS-Vincennes-Iran-A-/cb6c1e3b2e77457b97c5e10a9f225a81/7/0">AP Photo/CP/Mohammad Sayyad</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1988: US Navy shoots down Iran Air flight 655</h2>
<p>On the morning of July 8, 1988, the USS Vincennes, a guided missile cruiser patrolling in the international waters of the Persian Gulf, <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2014/07/the-vincennes-downing-of-iran-air-flight-655-the-united-states-tried-to-cover-up-its-own-destruction-of-a-passenger-plane.html">entered Iranian territorial waters</a> while in a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/10/middleeast/iran-air-flight-655-us-military-intl-hnk/index.html">skirmish with Iranian gunboats</a>. </p>
<p>Either during or just after that exchange of gunfire, the Vincennes crew mistook a passing civilian Airbus passenger jet for an Iranian F-14 fighter. They shot it down, killing all 290 people aboard. </p>
<p>The U.S. called it a “<a href="https://www.jag.navy.mil/library/investigations/VINCENNES%20INV.pdf">tragic and regrettable accident</a>,” but Iran believed the plane’s downing was intentional. In 1996, the U.S. agreed to pay US$131.8 million in compensation to Iran.</p>
<h2>1997-1998: The US seeks contact</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310085/original/file-20200114-151880-s8yzsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310085/original/file-20200114-151880-s8yzsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310085/original/file-20200114-151880-s8yzsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310085/original/file-20200114-151880-s8yzsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310085/original/file-20200114-151880-s8yzsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310085/original/file-20200114-151880-s8yzsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310085/original/file-20200114-151880-s8yzsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310085/original/file-20200114-151880-s8yzsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Iranian President Mohammad Khatami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/istanbul-turkey-november-12-iranian-reformist-276222344">Prometheus72/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In August 1997, a moderate reformer, Mohammad Khatami, won Iran’s presidential election. </p>
<p>U.S. President Bill Clinton sensed an opportunity for improved relations between the two countries. He <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/iran/stories/iran010998.htm">sent a message to Tehran</a> through the Swiss ambassador there, proposing direct government-to-government talks. </p>
<p>Shortly thereafter, in early January 1998, Khatami gave an interview to CNN in which he expressed “<a href="http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9801/07/iran/interview.html">respect for the great American people</a>,” denounced terrorism and recommended an “exchange of professors, writers, scholars, artists, journalists and tourists” between the United States and Iran. </p>
<p>However, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei didn’t agree, so not much came of the mutual overtures as Clinton’s time in office came to an end. In 2000, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright spoke to the U.S.-based American-Iranian Council and <a href="https://1997-2001.state.gov/statements/2000/000317.html">acknowledged the government’s role in the 1953 ouster of Mossadegh</a>, but punctuated her remarks with criticism of Iranian domestic politics. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310088/original/file-20200114-93792-nwnm70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310088/original/file-20200114-93792-nwnm70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310088/original/file-20200114-93792-nwnm70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310088/original/file-20200114-93792-nwnm70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310088/original/file-20200114-93792-nwnm70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310088/original/file-20200114-93792-nwnm70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310088/original/file-20200114-93792-nwnm70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310088/original/file-20200114-93792-nwnm70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President George W. Bush delivers the 2002 State of the Union address.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Bush_at_State_of_the_Union.jpg">Eric Draper/White House/Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/transcripts/sou012902.htm">2002 State of the Union address</a>, President George W. Bush characterized Iran, Iraq and North Korea as constituting an “Axis of Evil” supporting terrorism and pursuing weapons of mass destruction, straining relations even further.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310095/original/file-20200114-151887-11s0sgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310095/original/file-20200114-151887-11s0sgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310095/original/file-20200114-151887-11s0sgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310095/original/file-20200114-151887-11s0sgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310095/original/file-20200114-151887-11s0sgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=227&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310095/original/file-20200114-151887-11s0sgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310095/original/file-20200114-151887-11s0sgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310095/original/file-20200114-151887-11s0sgv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Inside these buildings at the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran, technicians enrich uranium.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-International-News-Iran-IRAN-NUCLEAR/16101ec8c3e4da11af9f0014c2589dfb/139/0">AP Photo/Vahid Salemi</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2002: Iran’s nuclear program raises alarm</h2>
<p>In August 2002, an exiled rebel group announced that <a href="https://www.iranwatch.org/library/international-organization/international-atomic-energy-agency-iaea/other-iaea-document/irans-nuclear-power-profile-iaea">Iran had been secretly working on nuclear weapons</a> at two installations that had not previously been publicly revealed. </p>
<p>That was a violation of the terms of <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nptfact">the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty</a>, which Iran had signed, requiring countries to disclose their nuclear-related facilities to international inspectors. </p>
<p>One of those formerly secret locations, Natanz, housed centrifuges for enriching uranium, which could be used in civilian nuclear reactors or enriched further for weapons. </p>
<p>Starting in roughly 2005, U.S. and Israeli government cyberattackers together reportedly targeted the Natanz centrifuges with a custom-made piece of malicious software that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/world/middleeast/16stuxnet.html">became known as Stuxnet</a>.</p>
<p>That effort, which <a href="https://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Stuxnet-virus-set-back-Irans-nuclear-program-by-2-years">slowed down Iran’s nuclear program</a> was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/obama-ordered-wave-of-cyberattacks-against-iran.html">one of many U.S. and international attempts</a> – mostly unsuccessful in the long term – to curtail Iran’s progress toward building a nuclear bomb.</p>
<h2>2003: Iran writes to Bush administration</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310090/original/file-20200114-151887-y4iwpm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310090/original/file-20200114-151887-y4iwpm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310090/original/file-20200114-151887-y4iwpm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310090/original/file-20200114-151887-y4iwpm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310090/original/file-20200114-151887-y4iwpm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310090/original/file-20200114-151887-y4iwpm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310090/original/file-20200114-151887-y4iwpm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310090/original/file-20200114-151887-y4iwpm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An excerpt of the document sent from Iran, via the Swiss government, to the U.S. State Department in 2003, appears to seek talks between the U.S. and Iran.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.scribd.com/document/170613340/2003-US-Iran-Roadmap-proposal">Washington Post via Scribd</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In May 2003, senior Iranian officials <a href="http://www.mideastweb.org/log/archives/00000467.htm">quietly contacted the State Department</a> through the Swiss embassy in Iran, seeking “a dialogue ‘in mutual respect,’” addressing four big issues: nuclear weapons, terrorism, Palestinian resistance and stability in Iraq.</p>
<p>Hardliners in the Bush administration <a href="https://archive.org/stream/ABCNews19781979/Libya-FT-1990-to-2007-c.txt">weren’t interested in any major reconciliation</a>, though Secretary of State Colin Powell favored dialogue and other officials had met with Iran about al-Qaida.</p>
<p>When Iranian hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president of Iran in 2005, the opportunity died. The following year, <a href="http://mideastweb.org/ahmadinejad_letter_to_bush.htm">Ahmadinejad made his own overture to Washington</a> in an 18-page letter to President Bush. The letter was widely dismissed; a senior State Department official told <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/cf/faculty-and-staff/faculty.cfm?pid=1006509">me</a> in profane terms that it amounted to nothing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310091/original/file-20200114-151829-5e9mj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310091/original/file-20200114-151829-5e9mj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310091/original/file-20200114-151829-5e9mj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310091/original/file-20200114-151829-5e9mj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310091/original/file-20200114-151829-5e9mj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310091/original/file-20200114-151829-5e9mj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310091/original/file-20200114-151829-5e9mj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310091/original/file-20200114-151829-5e9mj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Representatives of several nations met in Vienna in July 2015 to finalize the Iran nuclear deal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/minoritenplatz8/19067069963/">Austrian Federal Ministry for Europe, Integration and Foreign Affairs/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2015: Iran nuclear deal signed</h2>
<p>After a decade of unsuccessful attempts to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Obama administration undertook a direct diplomatic approach beginning in 2013.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/04/world/middleeast/an-iran-nuclear-deal-built-on-coffee-all-nighters-and-compromise.html">Two years of secret, direct negotiations</a> initially bilaterally between the U.S. and Iran and later with other nuclear powers culminated in the <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/JCPOA-at-a-glance">Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action</a>, commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal. </p>
<p>The deal was signed by Iran, the U.S., China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom in 2015. It severely limited Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium and mandated that <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/JCPOA-at-a-glance">international inspectors monitor and enforce Iran’s compliance</a> with the agreement. </p>
<p>In return, Iran was granted relief from international and U.S. economic sanctions. Though the inspectors regularly certified that Iran was abiding by the agreement’s terms, in May 2018 President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement.</p>
<h2>2020: US drones kill Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309158/original/file-20200108-107249-1x27m50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309158/original/file-20200108-107249-1x27m50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309158/original/file-20200108-107249-1x27m50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309158/original/file-20200108-107249-1x27m50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309158/original/file-20200108-107249-1x27m50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309158/original/file-20200108-107249-1x27m50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309158/original/file-20200108-107249-1x27m50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/309158/original/file-20200108-107249-1x27m50.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An official photo from the Iranian government shows Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a Jan. 3 drone strike ordered by President Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/file-photo-dated-september-18-2016-shows-iranian-news-photo/1191356889">Iranian Supreme Leader Press Office/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On Jan. 3, 2020, on the orders of President Trump, an American drone fired a missile that killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, leader of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/who-are-iran-s-secretive-quds-forces-n1110156">Iran’s elite Quds Force</a>, as he prepared to leave the Baghdad airport. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/qassem-soleimani-iran-elite-quds-force-leader-200103033905377.html">Soleimani is described</a> by analysts as the second most powerful man in Iran after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.</p>
<p>At the time, the Trump administration asserted that he was directing an imminent attack against U.S. assets in the region, but <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/12/us/politics/trump-suleimani-explanations.html">officials have not provided clear evidence</a> to support that claim.</p>
<p>Iran <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/world/middleeast/iran-fires-missiles-us.html">responded by launching ballistic missiles</a> that hit two American bases in Iraq. As Iran entered a heightened state of alert, preparing for a possible U.S. retaliation, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/world/middleeast/missile-iran-plane-crash.html">it accidentally shot down</a> a commercial Ukrainian airliner departing Tehran for Kyiv, killing all 176 people aboard.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey Fields receives funding from the MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York.</span></em></p>Some of the major events in US-Iran relations highlight the differences between the nations’ views, but others presented real opportunities for reconciliation.Jeffrey Fields, Associate Professor of the Practice of International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1195712019-07-30T12:37:56Z2019-07-30T12:37:56ZHow did the US presidential campaign get to be so long?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545384/original/file-20230829-9973-huoio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=121%2C363%2C4932%2C3530&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley holds a town hall in South Carolina on Aug. 28, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/following-a-strong-performance-in-the-first-republican-news-photo/1629838244?adppopup=true">Peter Zay/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Four hundred and forty-four days prior to the 2024 presidential election, millions of Americans tuned into the first Republican primary debate. If this seems like a long time to contemplate the candidates, it is. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/10/21/450238156/canadas-11-week-campaign-reminds-us-that-american-elections-are-much-longer">By comparison</a>, Canadian election campaigns average just 50 days. In France, candidates have just two weeks to campaign, while Japanese law restricts campaigns to a meager 12 days. </p>
<p>Those countries all give more power than the United States does to the legislative branch, which might explain the limited attention to the selection of the chief executive. But Mexico – which, like the US, has a <a href="https://www.annenbergclassroom.org/glossary_term/presidential-system/">presidential system</a> – only allows 90 days for its presidential campaigns, with a 60-day “pre-season,” the equivalent of the US nomination campaign. </p>
<p>So by all accounts, the United States has exceptionally long elections – and they just keep getting longer. <a href="https://www.drake.edu/polsci/facultystaff/rachelpainecaufield/">As a political scientist living in Iowa</a>, I’m acutely aware of how long the modern American presidential campaign has become.</p>
<p>It wasn’t always this way. The seemingly interminable presidential campaign is <a href="https://www.stanforddaily.com/2019/01/22/as-length-of-presidential-campaigns-increases-2020-might-follow-suit/">a modern phenomenon</a>. It originated out of widespread frustration with the control that national parties used to wield over the selection of candidates. But changes to election procedures, along with <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2960400?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">media coverage</a> that started to depict the election as a horse race, <a href="https://www.stanforddaily.com/2019/01/22/as-length-of-presidential-campaigns-increases-2020-might-follow-suit/">have also contributed to the trend</a>.</p>
<h2>Wresting power from party elites</h2>
<p>For most of American history, party elites determined who would be best suited to compete in the general election. It was a process that took little time and required virtually no public campaigning by candidates. </p>
<p>But beginning in the early 20th century, populists and progressives <a href="https://conventions.cps.neu.edu/history/the-progressive-era-reforms-and-the-birth-of-the-primaries-1890-1960/">fought for greater public control over the selection of their party’s candidates</a>. They introduced the modern presidential primary and advocated for a more inclusive selection process of convention delegates. As candidates sought support from a wider range of people, they began to employ modern campaign tactics, like advertising. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, becoming the nominee didn’t require a protracted campaign.</p>
<p>Consider 1952, when <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/eisenhower/campaigns-and-elections">Dwight Eisenhower</a> publicly announced that he was a Republican just 10 months before the general election and indicated that he was willing to run for president. Even then, he remained overseas as NATO commander until June, when he resigned to campaign full time. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Harry S. Truman points to Adlai E. Stevenson, as he introduces him at the 1952 Democratic convention in Chicago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-A-CVN-IL-USA-APHS420172-DNC-Stevenson-/7a7a2497ac6648e1a05f9bd8914ba958/11/0">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the Democratic side, despite encouragement from President Harry Truman, <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1996-07-26-9701150606-story.html">Adlai Stevenson</a> repeatedly rejected efforts to draft him for the nomination, until his welcoming address at the national convention in July 1952 – just a few months before the general election. His speech excited the delegates so much that they put his name in the running, and he became the nominee. </p>
<p>And in 1960, even though <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/kennedys-nomination-was-a-big-moment-for-the-primary-system/">John F. Kennedy</a> appeared on the ballot in only 10 of the party’s 16 state primaries, he was still able to use his win in heavily Protestant West Virginia to convince party leaders that he could attract support, despite his Catholicism.</p>
<h2>A shift to primaries</h2>
<p>The contentious <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1960s/1968-democratic-convention">1968 Democratic convention</a> in Chicago, however, led to a series of reforms. </p>
<p>That convention had pitted young anti-war activists supporting Eugene McCarthy against older establishment supporters of Vice President Hubert Humphrey. Thousands of protesters rioted in the streets as Humphrey was nominated. It revealed deep divisions within the party, with many members convinced that party elites had operated against their wishes. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20452374?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">The resulting changes to the nomination process</a> – dubbed the McGovern-Fraser reforms – were explicitly designed to allow rank-and-file party voters to participate in the nomination of a presidential candidate.</p>
<p>States increasingly <a href="http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-modern-history-of-the-democratic-presidential-primary-1972-2008/?upm_export=print">shifted</a> to public primaries rather than party caucuses. In a party <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/caucus-system-us-presidential-nominating-process">caucus system</a> – like that used in Iowa – voters meet at a designated time and place to discuss candidates and issues in person. By design, a caucus tends to attract activists deeply engaged in party politics. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works/?utm_term=.eb8b072ce77c">Primaries</a>, on the other hand, are conducted by the state government and require only that a voter show up for a few moments to cast their ballot. </p>
<p>As political scientist Elaine Kamarck <a href="https://www.npr.org/books/titles/471571510/primary-politics-everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-america-nominates-its-pre">has noted</a>, in 1968, only 15 states held primaries; by 1980, 37 states held primaries. For the 2024 election, only Iowa, Nevada, Idaho, North Dakota, Utah and Hawaii <a href="https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-calendar/">have confirmed that they’ll hold caucuses</a>; the remaining U.S. states and territories will likely hold primaries.</p>
<p>The growing number of primaries meant that candidates were encouraged to use any tool at their disposal to reach as many voters as possible. Candidates became more entrepreneurial, name recognition and media attention became more important, and campaigns became more media savvy – and expensive. </p>
<p>This shift marked the beginning of what political scientists call the “<a href="https://newbooksnetwork.com/brian-arbour-candidate-centered-campaigns-political-messages-winning-personalities-and-personal-appeals-palgrave-macmillan-2014/">candidate-centered campaign</a>.” </p>
<h2>The early bird gets the worm</h2>
<p>In 1974, as he concluded his term as Governor of Georgia, just <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=4XKu7rZVG1AC&pg=PA88&lpg=PA88&dq=jimmy+carter+name+recognition+1974&source=bl&ots=8jlO6tdIuz&sig=ACfU3U3TgTIDwPyhGezopzRq5_uG05YxcQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi1wayNldvjAhWKZ80KHUC1C0w4FBDoATAJegQIChAB#v=onepage&q=jimmy%20carter%20name%20recognition%201974&f=false">2% of voters</a> recognized the name of Democrat Jimmy Carter. He had virtually no money. </p>
<p>But Carter theorized that he could build momentum by proving himself in states that held early primaries and caucuses. So on Dec. 12, 1974 – 691 days before the general election – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1974/12/13/archives/georgias-gov-carter-enters-democratic-race-for-president-governor.html">Carter announced his presidential campaign</a>. Over the course of 1975, he spent much of his time in Iowa, talking to voters and building a campaign operation in the state. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jimmy Carter speaks to a crowd of supporters at a farm in Des Moines, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/Search?query=jimmy+carter+iowa&ss=10&st=kw&entitysearch=&toItem=18&orderBy=Newest&searchMediaType=allmedia">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By October 1975, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1975/10/27/archives/carter-appears-to-hold-a-solid-lead-in-iowa-as-the-campaigns-first.html">The New York Times was heralding Carter’s popularity in Iowa</a>, pointing to his folksy style, agricultural roots and political prowess. Carter came in second in that caucus – “uncommitted” won – but he yielded more votes than any other named candidate. Carter’s campaign was widely accepted as the runaway victor, boosting his prominence, name recognition and fundraising. </p>
<p>Carter would go on to win the nomination and the election.</p>
<p>His successful campaign became <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/jimmy-carter-iowa-caucuses/426729/">the stuff of political legend</a>. Generations of political candidates and organizers have since adopted the early start, hoping that a better-than-expected showing in Iowa or New Hampshire will similarly propel them to the White House. </p>
<h2>Other states crave the spotlight</h2>
<p>As candidates tried to <a href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/jimmy-carter-is-emerging-as-a-role-model-in-2020-primaries.html">repeat Carter’s success</a>, other states tried to steal some of Iowa’s political prominence by pushing their contests earlier and earlier in the nomination process, a trend called “<a href="https://www.uakron.edu/bliss/docs/state-of-the-parties-documents/Wattier.pdf">frontloading</a>.” </p>
<p>In 1976, when Carter ran, <a href="https://ir.uiowa.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1083&context=polisci_pubs">just 10% of national convention delegates were selected by March 2</a>. By 2008, 70% of delegates were selected by March 2.</p>
<p>When state primaries and caucuses were spread out in the calendar, candidates could compete in one state, then move their campaign operation to the next state, raise some money and spend time getting to know the activists, issues and voters before the next primary or caucus. A frontloaded system, in contrast, requires candidates to run a campaign in dozens of states at the same time. </p>
<p>To be competitive in so many states at the same time, campaigns rely on extensive <a href="https://www.thecampaignworkshop.com/paid-media-vs-earned-media-how-do-they-fit-campaign-budget">paid and earned</a> media exposure and a robust campaign staff, all of which require substantial name recognition and campaign cash before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. </p>
<p>The parties exacerbated these trends in 2016 and 2020, using the number of donors and public polls to determine who is eligible for early debates. For example, <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/rnc-debate-rules_n_647a532ae4b091b09c32a9b9">to earn a place on the stage</a> of the first Republican debate in August 2023, candidates had to accumulate at least 40,000 donors and at least 1% support in three national polls.</p>
<p>So that’s how the U.S. got to where it is today.</p>
<p>A century ago, Warren Harding announced his successful candidacy 321 days before the 1920 election. </p>
<p>In the 2020 race, Democratic Congressman John Delaney announced his White House bid a record 1,194 days before election.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on July 30, 2019.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119571/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Paine Caufield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While other countries set strict limits on the length of campaigns, American presidential races have become drawn-out, yearslong affairs. It wasn’t always this way.Rachel Paine Caufield, Professor of Political Science, Drake UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1031092018-09-17T18:39:33Z2018-09-17T18:39:33Z‘Resistance’ to Trump and the 25th Amendment: impeachment by insiders?<p>The anonymous op-ed piece published September 5 in the <em>New York Times</em>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html">“I am part of the resistance inside the Trump administration”</a>, offered the “cold comfort” that there are “adults in the room” restraining President Trump from his worst “inclinations”. Those working in the White House who do not fully support Trump have the option of resigning and publicly signing their denunciation. But they stay, remaining loyal to an agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and a strengthened military that, “despite the president’s leadership style”, they feel they can move forward.</p>
<p>Ordinary US citizens or members of the military can wonder about the strength provided by a White House where the commander in chief is being secretly outmaneuvered by his staff. They can also judge the merit of cutting the taxes of the rich while <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/02/12/trump-budget-seeks-23-percent-cut-at-epa-would-eliminate-dozens-of-programs/">gutting the EPA</a> and other regulatory agencies. The author gives the impression that this situation might be tolerable until 2025, the end of a potential second Trump mandate.</p>
<p>If those who are part of the “resistence” inside the White House won’t resign, there are two Constitutional ways of removing a president. Indeed, these officials swore to uphold the Constitution before they swore to restrain Trump, so why don’t they use <a href="http://theconversation.com/impeaching-donald-trump-will-not-remove-him-from-office-94369">impeachment</a> or the 25th Amendment to do the job in an open, legal way?</p>
<h2>The 25th Amendment: tool of insiders</h2>
<p>The anonymous letter of September 5 specifically mentions the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv">25th Amendment of the US Constitution</a>. Section 4 of the amendment states that members of the Cabinet can turn power over to the vice president with a majority vote. Clearly, this would be the tool for White House insiders who wish to retain power for the Republican party. The authors dismiss this method, stating that there is no precedent for using Section 4 and if used it would certainly end in a “constitutional crisis”. But what does the admission of this White House plot mean for the future of this government?</p>
<p>As early as February 2017, journalists and pundits discussed Trump’s fitness for office in legal and procedural terms. David Brooks of the <em>New York Times</em> thought Trump <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/opinion/what-a-failed-trump-administration-looks-like.html">wouldn’t even last a single term</a> and Steve Benen of MSNBC looked into the <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/why-the-25th-amendment-suddenly-getting-so-much-attention">history of the 25th Amendment</a>. That was in the first month of the Trump administration. Now that people <em>inside</em> the White house are discussing the 25th Amendment, how much we closer are we to Trump’s being removed from office?</p>
<h2>The 25th Amendment in history</h2>
<p>The first purpose of the Amendment, ratified in 1967, was to clear up ambiguities in the Constitution about the transfer of power to the vice president because of the president’s death, inability to serve or resignation (Article II, Section 6). The first three sections deal with procedures and titles. But Section 4 of the amendment adds new ambiguities to a situation that the original framers of the Constitution did not imagine.</p>
<p><strong>Section 1</strong>: Clarifies the title of the vice president as he takes charge. When John Tyler took over from the dead president William Henry Harrison in 1841, he insisted on the title “president”, and so has every promoted vice president since. Section 1 of the 25th Amendment gave this practice Constitutional standing.</p>
<p><strong>Section 2</strong>: Describes how to appoint a new vice president when the vice president has moved up, something not mentioned in the original Constitution and that had left the position vacant a number of times.</p>
<p><strong>Section 3</strong>: Elucidates transferring power when the president is alive and present but incapacitated, a problem introduced by Woodrow Wilson’s stroke in 1919. For many months, Mrs. Wilson shunted in and out of the president’s darkened bedroom interpreting his words for members of the government. She and his doctor obscured how ill Wilson was and Congress failed to addressed the problem after he died. During Dwight Eisenhower’s mandate, his medical conditions required him and Vice President Richard Nixon to sign agreements turning power over to Nixon until Eisenhower returned to his duties. The arrangement reassured the public but wasn’t sanctioned by the Constitution. John Kennedy’s assassination, which gave no time for special agreements, underlined the problem. The 25th Amendment, adopted during the Johnson administration, was the solution to all of these problems.</p>
<p><strong>Section 4</strong>: It provides for the promotion of a vice president to the office of president without the consent of the elected president and without his death or resignation. Because it was imagined for a case such as Kennedy’s assassination, where an unconscious president might recover, it allows a president to reclaim his office when he considers himself fit. Hence the certainty of a power struggle should Section 4 be used to dispose of a president who is conscious, active and unwilling to leave office. Needless to say, it has yet to used.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236710/original/file-20180917-158222-15dzga1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236710/original/file-20180917-158222-15dzga1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236710/original/file-20180917-158222-15dzga1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236710/original/file-20180917-158222-15dzga1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236710/original/file-20180917-158222-15dzga1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236710/original/file-20180917-158222-15dzga1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236710/original/file-20180917-158222-15dzga1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">During President Dwight Eisenhower’s mandate, he and Vice President Richard Nixon signed agreements turning power over to Nixon until Eisenhower returned to his duties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nixon Foundation</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The past uses of the 25th Amendment</h2>
<p>The 25th Amendment has come into play six times since Watergate.</p>
<p>Section 2 allowed Richard Nixon to name Gerald Ford to the post of vice president when Spiro Agnew resigned from the post amid a raft of corruption charges. Ford was confirmed by Congress at the end of 1973. When Richard Nixon was forced to resign the presidency in 1974, Ford became president and not acting president with the blessing of Section 1, though he had been named to the post by the man who had just left under a cloud and still lived. Ford pardoned Nixon and named Nelson Rockefeller to be vice president under Section 2, the third time the 25th Amendment was used.</p>
<p>Section 3 was first evoked in the letter written by Ronald Reagan in 1985 when he made his vice president, George H.W. Bush, acting president while he underwent surgery. In 2002 and again in 2007, George W. Bush more formally used Section 3 to name Dick Cheney as acting president during medical examinations involving anaesthesia. In both those cases, the acting presidency lasted no more than a couple of hours.</p>
<h2>The thorny issue of Section 4</h2>
<p>According to Section 4, the vice president and a “majority of the principle officers of executive departments”, usually called the Cabinet, can vote to send a declaration to the House of Representatives and the Senate saying that the president is not fit to serve. At that moment, the vice president becomes the acting president. However, the president can write his own declaration at any time stating that there is no impediment to his holding office and resume his duties at once. If it were a matter of a president regaining consciousness after an accident or sudden illness, this would make perfect sense, putting the elected president in charge of this transfer.</p>
<p>Section 4, however, allows a determined Cabinet and vice president to question the president’s decision and send another declaration of presidential unfitness to serve within four days of the president’s. At that point, both houses of Congress have 21 days to deliver a two-thirds majority confirming the president’s unfitness and thus the vice president’s ascension. Congress has an extra two days for this if it is not in session.</p>
<h2>The not-so-mysterious anonymous letter</h2>
<p>The possibility of vice presidential, Cabinet and staff disloyalty was probably only conceived of by the framers of the amendment as a political struggle. Hence the sensible, if sly, mention and dismissal of the 25th Amendment in the anonymous <em>New York Times</em> op-ed. They hold up the spectre of the chaos that could result from Section 4 being used to show that they are numerous enough, possibly a majority of the Cabinet, to do so if they wished.</p>
<p>The author backs away from that possibility because it would throw the question into the House and Senate, where two-thirds majorities would have to include Democrats. This would be Impeachment without the trial. It is conceivable that the Democrats might wish to remove Trump by Impeachment, but they certainly would not do so in favour of an unelected Republican cabal of Trump appointees. They would want the trial and exposure of Impeachment discrediting Republicans. Given Trump’s behaviour up to now, he would certainly not be passive in all this.</p>
<h2>Bypassing impeachment to keep the upper hand within a majority under threat</h2>
<p>Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is not a serious possibility in the present case. The person or group in the White House who conceived of the letter to <em>The New York Times</em> is trying out something else, unprecedented. Convinced that the Republican Party has been weakened by Trump and that this weakness will become manifest in the November election, they are asking their base and their financial supporters to maintain them in power.</p>
<p>To be effective, they need continued support by majorities in the House of Representative and the Senate. These Republicans have done their arithmetic and made their calculations. The House of Representatives, which traditionally shifts away from the president’s party at mid-term elections, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/">will almost certainly give a majority to the Democrats in November</a>. In January, when those new Representatives take their seats, the pressure and temptation to vote on the some version of the Articles of Impeachment – including those <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-introduce-articles-impeachment-president-trump/story">filed in late 2017</a> – will be overwhelming.</p>
<p>Those articles will be based on charges of Trump’s receiving emoluments from foreign powers (Article I, Section 9, Clause 8 of the Constitution), which will be persuasive given his extensive international real estate empire. There will be charges about communications between Trump’s campaign and foreign powers to influence public opinion and subvert the election of 2016 based on the growing information from the Mueller investigation. Buy now the Mueller investigation has convinced many that Trump is at least an “unindicted co-conspirator” in connection to some charges. That is what <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1974/06/07/archives/jury-named-nixon-a-coconspirator-but-didnt-indict-st-clair-confirms.html">Richard Nixon was called</a> when Republican senators started to desert him.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236711/original/file-20180917-158234-4o0but.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236711/original/file-20180917-158234-4o0but.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236711/original/file-20180917-158234-4o0but.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236711/original/file-20180917-158234-4o0but.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236711/original/file-20180917-158234-4o0but.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236711/original/file-20180917-158234-4o0but.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/236711/original/file-20180917-158234-4o0but.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thanks to the 25th Amendment, Vice President Gerald Ford became president in 1974 when Richard Nixon resigned. He later pardoned Nixon and named Nelson Rockefeller to be vice president, also under the 25th Amendment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardon_of_Richard_Nixon#/media/File:President_Ford_announces_his_decision_to_pardon_former_President_Richard_Nixon_-_NARA_-_7140608.jpg">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Impeachment: a political tool of outsiders</h2>
<p>What the letter’s anonymous author or authors cannot do is to use impeachment to remove Trump, because it is the tool of the party opposed to the president. It has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-friendly-reminder-impeaching-donald-trump-will-not-remove-him-from-office-94369">used several times</a> and in the case of Richard Nixon, the House Judiciary Committee’s voting for Impeachment Articles led to the president’s resignation. But the Democrats were in control of the House of Representatives and thus leading the charge against Republican Richard Nixon. In the case of Bill Clinton, a Republican House of Representatives with a Republican-dominated Judiciary Committee voted for Impeachment Articles and actually sent them to the Senate for trial.</p>
<p>Why did Nixon resign while Clinton stood trial in the Senate? The legal qualities of the cases against the two presidents were important, but far more important was relative party strength in the two houses. The Impeachment Articles voted against Nixon passed after years of Watergate scandal, lost court cases and other battles – Republicans were abandoning Nixon, and joined Democrats in the committee vote. When he resigned, Nixon knew that the same thing would happen when the House voted. After the <a href="http://watergate.info/1972/06/23/the-smoking-gun-tape.html">“smoking gun tape”</a> – where Nixon and staff discuss the cover-up days after the Watergate burglary – was released on June 23, 1972, just days before his resignation, he could count on only 15 Republican votes for acquittal. He needed 34.</p>
<p>This letter to the <em>New York Times</em> indicates that some in the White House don’t believe that Republican senators, in the majority at present, will necessarily stay loyal to Trump in an Impeachment proceeding. Meanwhile, in the midterm elections, where only one third of Senators are up for election, and where by chance, many Republican seats are among the safe two-thirds and many Democratic seats are being challenged, several upsets are expected: a Democrat may win in West Virginia where Trump won by 40%, and another may win in Texas where Trump won by 9%. This will not be enough to give the Democrats in the Senate, where an impeachment proceeding takes place, a two-thirds majority necessary for conviction unless some Republicans join them.</p>
<p>When the letter’s authors state that “like-minded colleagues [who] have vowed to thwart parts of [Trump’s] agenda and his worst inclinations”, they can’t just be appealing to the Trump base, which still supports him. They can’t just be appealing to the super-rich Trump supporters who benefit most from the tax cuts and deregulation of banking and environmental measures and the rest because at this point, they can’t ensure a majority in the House.</p>
<p>The author or authors write knowing that some shake-up will come, but with the assurance that whether Trump is impeached and convicted, impeached and just embarrassed for a while or sidelined some other way, they will remain in the White House, defending the Republican agenda. Impeachment with an unlikely conviction and Trump’s removal will result in a Mike Pence administration. The unlikely successful application of the 25th Amendment Section 4 will result in the same thing. The letter assures those who understand it, that even now the US government is in the hands of senior White House officials, the most senior of which is, of course, Vice President Mike Pence. It’s an appeal to Republican senators not to do what they did as Impeachment Articles were assembled and voted for against Nixon. They can abandon Trump secretly and preserve the power of the Republican party, the same way that people within the White House have.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103109/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Meigs a reçu des financements de l'Université de Paris Diderot et du LARCA(UMR 8225). </span></em></p>The claim of “resistance” inside the White House offers the possibility of government by Trump appointees who prefer to keep their positions rather than publicly denounce a man they disapprove of.Mark Meigs, Professeur d'Histoire et civilisation US, Université Paris CitéLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1012332018-08-17T10:15:15Z2018-08-17T10:15:15ZDr. Droegemeier goes to Washington? What could happen when a respected scientist joins Trump’s White House<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/231959/original/file-20180814-2912-g07yc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's a political job, not a scientific one.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/slack12/4551210288">slack12</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Leaders of the scientific community – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/493007a">most of whom</a> <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2010/12/lab_politics.html">are also Democrats</a> – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau9602">voiced</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/01/science/trump-droegemeier-science-adviser.html">relief</a> when the Trump administration <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/three-nominations-sent-senate-today-4/">nominated</a> Kelvin Droegemeier to direct the White House Office of Science and Technology last August. Four months later, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00015-1">Droegemeier has been confirmed</a> by the Senate, and he can finally step <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/">into a position</a> that has been <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2018/08/10/ostp-droegemeier-health-research/">leaderless since Trump assumed office</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/231960/original/file-20180814-2921-1x2qdqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/231960/original/file-20180814-2921-1x2qdqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/231960/original/file-20180814-2921-1x2qdqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/231960/original/file-20180814-2921-1x2qdqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/231960/original/file-20180814-2921-1x2qdqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=791&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/231960/original/file-20180814-2921-1x2qdqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=994&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/231960/original/file-20180814-2921-1x2qdqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=994&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/231960/original/file-20180814-2921-1x2qdqp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=994&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kelvin Droegemeier has a fine line to walk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Fallin-Charitable-Kick-Off/18722ad967194ccabce9ed95fede292b/2/0">AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Droegemeier, a <a href="https://www.aip.org/fyi/2018/trump-picks-meteorologist-kelvin-droegemeier-lead-white-house-science-office">well-respected meteorologist</a> specializing in severe weather such as thunderstorms, has also served <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/nsb/members/current_members/droegemeier.jsp">on the advisory board of the U.S. National Science Foundation</a>. He will bring a <a href="https://vpr-norman.ou.edu/users/kelvin-droegemeier">mainstream scientific voice</a> into an administration that is often portrayed as somewhere between apathetic and <a href="http://doi.org/10.1126/science.355.6331.1246">hostile about matters relating to science</a>.</p>
<p>But those who expect Droegemeier to provide any sort of counterweight to administration policies will likely be disappointed. The recent departures of <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/james-mattis-resignation-letter-quoting-lincoln-signs-off-as-secretary-of-defense/">Defense Secretary James Mattis</a> and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-john-kelly-exit-interview-20181230-story.html">White House Chief of Staff John Kelly</a> tell the tale, yet again, of the fate of those who push back against this president, however tough-minded they may be. Perhaps more importantly, a historical perspective on presidential science advising shows that the advisers’ effectiveness is determined not by how much they know, but by how closely they are in step with the political priorities of the administration they serve.</p>
<h2>Science advisers are on the team</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/book/american-science-policy-since-world-war-ii/">role of presidential science adviser was formalized</a> in the shadow of the Sputnik launch, when President Eisenhower named MIT president James R. Killian to the newly created post of “special assistant to the president for science and technology” in November 1957. Killian, who in fact was not a scientist but had a mere bachelor’s degree in management, was expected not only to lend expertise to the White House but, according to a <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1957/11/08/84916858.pdf">New York Times article</a> at the time, to “allay public fears concerning scientific achievements by the Soviet Union.”</p>
<p>Killian helped to oversee a rapid expansion of government investment in science, an agenda that satisfied both his scientific colleagues and the political aims of President Eisenhower. But such alignment of science advice and presidential politics is far from inevitable.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232357/original/file-20180816-2924-19doysf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232357/original/file-20180816-2924-19doysf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232357/original/file-20180816-2924-19doysf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232357/original/file-20180816-2924-19doysf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232357/original/file-20180816-2924-19doysf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232357/original/file-20180816-2924-19doysf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232357/original/file-20180816-2924-19doysf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232357/original/file-20180816-2924-19doysf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jerome Wiesner had a seat at the table (second from left) in the Kennedy White House.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-A-DC-USA-APHS418409-President-John-F-/85e46e605dd540348b5d879e55b414b7/4/0">AP Photo/Byron Rollins</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several years later, President Kennedy’s science adviser, Jerome Wiesner, <a href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19940030132.pdf">advised against</a> sending a man to the moon, counsel that was decisively rejected, with momentous historical consequences. A decade later, President Nixon got so fed up with advice he was getting on missile defense and supersonic transport that in 1973 he <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674666566">eliminated the science adviser post</a>.</p>
<p>With the support of Congress, Nixon’s successor, Gerald Ford, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/book/american-science-policy-since-world-war-ii/">reestablished the position of science adviser</a> in 1976, as head of a newly created Office of Science and Technology Policy. But the age of innocence was over, and only the most naïve observers could continue to believe that presidential science advice could somehow be held separate from national politics.</p>
<p>Under President Reagan, science adviser George Keyworth II, a nuclear physicist, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3898-2_5">aggressively advocated</a> for the president’s highly controversial “star wars” missile defense system and notably <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/23/nyregion/reagan-science-adviser-says-press-seeks-to-demolish-us.html">attacked the news media</a> as “a narrow fringe element on the far left of our society” because of alleged bias against administration policies.</p>
<p>More recently, President Obama’s science adviser, John Holdren, also a physicist, was an <a href="https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/science-adviser-lists-goals-on-climate-energy/">outspoken advocate</a> for the president’s energy and environmental policies. In their times, <a href="http://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Way-Out-There-In-the-Blue/Frances-FitzGerald/9780743200233">Keyworth</a> <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2009/01/obamas-political-science-adviser-jonathan-h-adler/">and</a> <a href="https://tierneylab.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/29/dr-holdrens-ice-age-tidal-wave/">Holdren</a> were both subjected to energetic critique from those in politics and the media who disagreed with the positions that each advanced.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232358/original/file-20180816-2891-r50pd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232358/original/file-20180816-2891-r50pd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232358/original/file-20180816-2891-r50pd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232358/original/file-20180816-2891-r50pd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232358/original/file-20180816-2891-r50pd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232358/original/file-20180816-2891-r50pd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232358/original/file-20180816-2891-r50pd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232358/original/file-20180816-2891-r50pd0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=513&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">John Marburger (left) knew his job was to back up the president.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Bush-/90b5892a92d4452e8e1259c9f6b7a1a7/35/0">AP Photo/White House, Chris Greenberg</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most notable in this regard, however, was John Marburger, also a physicist, and science adviser to Republican President George W. Bush. Marburger in fact was a Democrat, a respected scientist and university administrator, and unlike Keyworth and Holdren was a low-profile player in White House politics. But <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/30/science/at-the-center-of-the-storm-over-bush-and-science.html">he was skewered</a> by Democrats in Congress and their allies in the scientific community for failing to oppose Bush policies on issues <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3898-2_8">such as stem cell research and climate change</a> – even though he would surely have been fired had he done so.</p>
<p>Science advisers are not apolitical nerds, high-level versions of Bill Nye the Science Guy on tap to answer a president’s questions about why the sky is blue or how a bar-code scanner works. Science advisers are political players on a political team, and above all, Trump’s choice of Droegemeier must be understood in that vein.</p>
<h2>A challenge ahead for nominee</h2>
<p>Yet Droegemeier represents a somewhat bizarre choice. Trump could have chosen a science adviser with expertise relevant to administration policy priorities, such as <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/trump-signs-717-billion-defense-bill.html">defense buildup</a>, <a href="https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/trumpometer/promise/1435/bring-back-manufacturing/">restoring the manufacturing base</a> or <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/05/climate/trump-environment-rules-reversed.html">undoing environmental regulations</a>. Given his skepticism about climate change, Trump could even have chosen a science adviser with similar views. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2017.21336">Early rumors suggested</a> he would do just that.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"265895292191248385"}"></div></p>
<p>Instead, in Droegemeier he has selected an expert on weather and climate who seems – although his public statements on the matter are few – to agree with most other climate scientists that human activities are contributing to a changing climate. So Droegemeier comes into his job holding a view that sharply contradicts a conspicuous public position taken by the president. As we have seen, this is not a proven formula for success.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232353/original/file-20180816-2894-n1tqjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232353/original/file-20180816-2894-n1tqjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232353/original/file-20180816-2894-n1tqjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232353/original/file-20180816-2894-n1tqjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232353/original/file-20180816-2894-n1tqjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232353/original/file-20180816-2894-n1tqjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232353/original/file-20180816-2894-n1tqjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232353/original/file-20180816-2894-n1tqjv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perhaps vouching for now NASA Administrator James Bridenstine paid political dividends.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/NASA-New-Orleans/83d16f58bcd94e18b405db1d608b2c54/1/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Why did Trump pick Droegemeier, then? For one thing, within the Trump administration he likely has the support of NASA director and fellow Oklahoman Jim Bridenstine, at least in part because Droegemeier supported Bridenstine’s nomination for the NASA directorship by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap8749">providing public assurances</a> that Bridenstine was not a climate skeptic. For another, Droegemeier has the <a href="https://www.inhofe.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/inhofe-lankford-applaud-presidential-appointment-of-oklahoman">endorsement</a> of Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe, a powerful Trump ally <a href="https://wndbooks.wnd.com/the-greatest-hoax-2/">who is a climate skeptic</a>.</p>
<p>So perhaps Droegemeier’s selection was just a matter of smart political triangulation: A man who has the confidence of political leaders of a state where Trump won with <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/states/oklahoma">more than 65 percent of the vote</a>, and also just happens to have unimpeachable scientific credentials, is a rare political commodity.</p>
<p>Now that he’s confirmed by the Senate, whatever role Droegemeier ends up playing will be one of service to the political agenda of the Trump administration. Given that Democrats have over the past 15 years or more <a href="http://issues.org/25-4/sarewitz-2/">sought to portray themselves</a> as the party of science, Droegemeier will find it difficult to maintain his stellar reputation as a scientist while also advocating policies that Democrats and their allies in the scientific community oppose. He should expect severe political weather for the next few years. Perhaps the most interesting question is whether the fiercest gales will come from the Democrats, now that they are back in charge of the House of Representatives, or from Droegmeier’s unpredictable boss in the White House.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on Aug. 17, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101233/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Sarewitz has received funding from the US National Science Foundation to study the politics of science and technology policy. He is a registered Democrat and has contributed to Democratic candidates at the local, state, and national levels.</span></em></p>Almost two years in, Trump finally has a science adviser in position. History demonstrates that the role is at least as political as it is scientific.Daniel Sarewitz, Professor of Science and Society, Co-Director of the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/921522018-03-05T11:43:29Z2018-03-05T11:43:29ZWill the United States ever get back on a bipartisan ‘Middle Way?’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208299/original/file-20180228-36671-t1sorz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bipartisan laughter: Eisenhower with GOP Sen. William Knowland and Democratic Sen. Lyndon Johnson.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Our nation has been ripped apart by political discord, ad hominem attacks and deep rifts between the dominant political parties.</p>
<p>But history provides a lesson about how the United States can return to bipartisanship and more civil political discourse. </p>
<p>The period I want to focus on covers the years from 1953 to 1961 and the two administrations of Republican President Dwight D. “Ike” Eisenhower, which I wrote about in my book “<a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/content/eisenhower">Eisenhower: Becoming the Leader of the Free World</a>.” That study and my years of editing <a href="http://eisenhower.press.jhu.edu/index.html">Eisenhower’s papers</a> convinced me that our society can learn a great deal from his approach to the conflicts that always exist in American politics. Today’s angry division is not unique. </p>
<h2>Forged unity despite differences</h2>
<p>Throughout World War II, Eisenhower, then supreme commander of the Allied Expeditionary Forces, understood that he had to work every day to preserve the unity of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Allied-Powers-international-alliance">Allied</a> forces. He was successful in this essentially political effort because he kept a firm grip on his priorities. </p>
<p>Following the war, he tried with only partial success to achieve similar unity between the military services. As the post-war North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/su/natohq/declassified_137961.htm">commander</a>, he was a positive and vigorous advocate of unified action to prevent Soviet aggression. </p>
<p>Eisenhower thus came into office in 1953 with a well-established record of decisive action. He entered the presidency with a willingness to continue working with those who disagreed with him. </p>
<p>As president, Eisenhower consistently took unexpected positions for a Republican. He refused to cut taxes on those upper-income groups that had traditionally supported and heavily influenced his own party. Instead, he worked to cut spending and balance the budget, a goal he <a href="http://federal-budget.insidegov.com/d/d/Dwight-Eisenhower">achieved three times</a> during his two terms. </p>
<p>By holding down inflation and promoting steady growth, Eisenhower helped Americans on fixed incomes as well as those promoting new or expanding enterprises. He also supported additions to Social Security, a New Deal program that he considered a <a href="https://www.eisenhower.archives.gov/all_about_ike/speeches/1953_state_of_the_union.pdf">permanent and absolutely essential</a> part of American public policy. That position was more in line with Democratic orthodoxy than Republican.</p>
<p>Where innovations were needed, Eisenhower worked with both Democratic and Republican leaders in the House of Representatives and the Senate to promote progress. Typical of his leadership was the creation of the federally sponsored <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/interstate/history.cfm">national highway system</a>. </p>
<p>The new program provided the kind of <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Federal_Highway_Act.htm">public infrastructure</a> that Democrats had long supported. It also pumped money into the companies that built the roads and was supported by Republicans who saw it as a step forward in national defense. The new national road system would enable American forces to move quickly and efficiently to any part of the country under attack.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208304/original/file-20180228-36706-1okngj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208304/original/file-20180228-36706-1okngj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208304/original/file-20180228-36706-1okngj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208304/original/file-20180228-36706-1okngj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208304/original/file-20180228-36706-1okngj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208304/original/file-20180228-36706-1okngj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208304/original/file-20180228-36706-1okngj8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Eisenhower spearheaded what became a bipartisan effort to construct a federal highway system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Missouri Department of Transportation</span></span>
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<p>Some of these measures were easy to achieve, others were extremely controversial and difficult to promote. That was certainly the case with Eisenhower’s bill <a href="https://eisenhower.archives.gov/research/online_documents/civil_rights_act.html">to advance the civil rights</a> of African-American citizens. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-71/pdf/STATUTE-71-Pg634.pdf">The Civil Rights Act of 1957</a> expanded voting rights protections for blacks, formed a civil rights law enforcement division in the Justice Department and created the U.S. Civil Rights Commission.</p>
<p>Opposition to the proposed law was fierce – especially in the South, including by Southern Democrats. </p>
<p>Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson, a Democrat from Texas, was, however, <a href="http://history.house.gov/Historical-Highlights/1951-2000/The-Civil-Rights-Act-of-1957/">willing to work</a> with Eisenhower to overcome the congressional resistance to the new policy. </p>
<p>It was the country’s first <a href="https://eisenhower.archives.gov/research/online_documents/civil_rights_act.html">civil rights law</a> since Reconstruction. It was too weak a measure to change much. But it ended the pattern of federal acceptance of racial segregation, much of it supported by Southern opposition in Congress to civil rights.</p>
<h2>Divisions then, divisions now</h2>
<p>You may well be thinking that the 1950s were just completely different and have little to teach Americans today. </p>
<p>Don’t today’s identity politics make compromise and bipartisanship impossible? What about the Tea Party conservatives? What about the solid left wing of the Democratic Party? Don’t these factions find it had to talk to one another, let alone compromise to pass new laws? </p>
<p>You are right, of course, about the forces pulling Americans apart today. And, yes, Eisenhower’s America was different. But the truth is Americans were divided in Eisenhower’s time as well.</p>
<p>In the 1940s and 1950s there were deep fissures in the American population over issues such as sending U.S. soldiers to Europe in peacetime to defend our European allies. </p>
<p>Eisenhower – the former commander of NATO troops in Europe – vigorously supported America’s contributions to NATO. He did so even though many of his fellow Republicans backed Sen. Robert A. Taft of Ohio, who initially led <a href="http://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/speech-on-the-north-atlantic-treaty/">the opposition</a> to the new U.S. role in the world. </p>
<p>There were similar divisions about domestic policy. There were millions of Americans – including my father – who were so bitter about the New Deal support for unions that they could not even think about compromising with the Democrats promoting President Harry Truman’s liberal <a href="http://history.house.gov/HistoricalHighlight/Detail/36450">Fair Deal,</a> an initiative that expanded domestic social programs. </p>
<p>The right wing of the Republican Party gave Eisenhower fits. Every step he took toward unity at home and among America’s friends abroad had to be pushed through over the resistance of the Republican right. <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1657239">Foreign aid</a>, for instance, aroused bitter fights. </p>
<p>And the Democrats had similar problems with the split between their Southern supporters and their big-city Northern party members over any issue that seemed to promote change in race relations. Identity politics are not new to America in the 21st century.</p>
<p>What about the Cold War? Didn’t Eisenhower and his colleagues have the advantage of working against a single opponent, the communist forces led by the USSR? </p>
<p>In reality, communism was never a completely unified force, and like today, the United States had to deal with a wide variety of challenges to its national security.</p>
<p>In East Europe, in the Middle East, in Korea and in the South China Sea, American interests are no more secure now than they were in the 1950s. Americans aware of these challenges have just as strong an incentive to work together as they did during the Eisenhower administrations. </p>
<p>But can Americans work together? Can a nation of 323 million people turn back toward bipartisanship? </p>
<p>That, I believe, calls for the kind of outstanding leadership this nation and its allies received in the 1950s. Eisenhower called his form of politics the “Middle Way” between the extremes of the left and right. </p>
<p>He accomplished much by being able to talk to, and work with, both sides on every issue. For a nation now mired in partisan conflict, his model of getting things done by taking the “Middle Way” could provide a welcome alternative. </p>
<p>We need our leaders to help turn us in that direction. Then, of course, all of us, the voters, will have a chance to decide whether indeed we actually want bipartisanship and the compromises it entails. I hope I will have that choice to make in my lifetime.</p>
<p>
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<header>Louis Galambos is the author of:</header>
<p><a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/content/eisenhower">Eisenhower: Becoming the Leader of the Free World</a></p>
<footer>Johns Hopkins University Press provides funding as a member of The Conversation US.</footer>
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</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92152/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lou Galambos received funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities. </span></em></p>The current period of partisan division in the US isn’t unique. We can learn from past President Dwight Eisenhower on how to leave bitterness behind and get back to what he called the “Middle Way.”Louis Galambos, Professor of History, Johns Hopkins UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/922292018-02-21T18:13:10Z2018-02-21T18:13:10ZHow Billy Graham’s legacy lives on in American life<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207354/original/file-20180221-132680-datktu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Evangelist Billy Graham.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Nell Redmond</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On Feb. 21, Billy Graham, the evangelical Christian minister who was widely regarded as “America’s pastor,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/billy-graham-charismatic-evangelist-with-worldwide-following-dies-at-99/2018/02/21/acf3f446-170a-11e8-92c9-376b4fe57ff7_story.html">died</a> at the age of 99.</p>
<p>Graham is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/21/obituaries/billy-graham-dead.html">best known</a> for his global “crusades” – rallies that attracted crowds in the millions – and for the spiritual counsel he provided to American presidents for over a half-century. But, what is less widely known is his contribution to the religious language in American public life. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207359/original/file-20180221-132677-6558bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207359/original/file-20180221-132677-6558bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207359/original/file-20180221-132677-6558bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207359/original/file-20180221-132677-6558bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207359/original/file-20180221-132677-6558bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207359/original/file-20180221-132677-6558bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207359/original/file-20180221-132677-6558bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Billy Graham with former President George H.W. Bush.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Gerry Broome</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Americans before the mid-20th century were often ambivalent about religious language and images in public life. Graham helped change that reality. </p>
<h2>Religion in American public discourse</h2>
<p>Rhetoric linking the United States with a divine power, which Graham would later embrace, emerged on a large scale with the outbreak of the Civil War in 1861. M.R. Watkinson, a Pennsylvania clergyman, <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/about/education/Pages/in-god-we-trust.aspx">encouraged</a> the placement of “In God We Trust” on coins at the war’s outset in order to help the North’s cause. Such language, Watkinson wrote, would “place us openly under the divine protection.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1849 Liberty Head design by James B. Longacre.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/df/NNC-US-1866-G%2420-Liberty_Head_%28motto%29.jpg">National Numismatic Collection, National Museum of American History.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1864, with the Civil War still raging, a group supported by the North’s major Protestant denominations began advocating to change the preamble of the Constitution. The proposed language would have <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=x9kIjlT32OUC&lpg=PA122&ots=y6ELj_i7Ki&dq=civil%20war%20almighty%20god%20constitutional%20amendment&pg=PA122#v=onepage&q&f=false">declared</a> that Americans recognized “Almighty God as the source of all authority and power in civil government.”</p>
<p>If the amendment’s supporters had succeeded in having their way, Christian belief would be deeply embedded in the United States government. </p>
<p>But, such invocations of God in national politics were not to last. Despite lobbying by major Protestant denominations such as the Methodists, this so-called Sovereignty of God amendment was never ratified. </p>
<p>Though “In God We Trust” was added to coins, it was not added to the increasingly common paper money. In fact, when coins were redesigned late in the 19th century, it disappeared from coins as well.</p>
<p>As I demonstrate in my <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100411860">book</a>, these developments were related to the spread of secularism in the post-Civil War U.S. For many people at the time, placing religious language in the Constitution or on symbols of government was not consistent with American ideals. </p>
<h2>Graham’s influence on religious politics</h2>
<p>In the 1950s, however, religious language found its way into government and politics, due in no small part to Billy Graham.</p>
<p>In 1953, at the strong encouragement of Graham, President Dwight Eisenhower held <a href="https://theconversation.com/national-prayer-breakfast-what-does-its-history-reveal-71978">the first National Prayer Breakfast</a>, an event that brings together political, military and corporate leaders in Washington, D.C., usually on the first Thursday of February. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207356/original/file-20180221-132660-natqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207356/original/file-20180221-132660-natqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207356/original/file-20180221-132660-natqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207356/original/file-20180221-132660-natqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207356/original/file-20180221-132660-natqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207356/original/file-20180221-132660-natqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207356/original/file-20180221-132660-natqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Billy Graham, right, talks with U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower in 1957.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the following years, Eisenhower signed a bill placing the phrase “In God We Trust” on all American currency and the phrase <a href="https://origins.osu.edu/history-news/god-we-trust-or-e-pluribus-unum-american-founders-preferred-latter-motto">was adopted</a> as the first official motto of the United States.</p>
<p>Both of these developments reflected the desire to emphasize Americans’ religious commitment in the early years of the Cold War. Historians such as Jonathan Herzog have <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-spiritual-industrial-complex-9780195393460?cc=us&lang=en&">chronicled</a> how leaders such as Eisenhower and Graham stressed the strong faith of the nation in setting the U.S. apart from the godlessness of Soviet communism. But, there were domestic concerns as well.
Princeton University historian <a href="https://history.princeton.edu/people/kevin-m-kruse">Kevin Kruse</a> has <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/kevin-m-kruse/one-nation-under-god/9780465097418/">shown</a> that religious language was not merely rhetoric against communism. </p>
<p>Indeed, this belief in American religiosity had emerged over several decades. Conservative businessmen had allied with ministers and evangelical leaders such as Billy Graham, to combat the social welfare policies and government expansion that began with Franklin Roosevelt’s <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/concise-history-of-the-new-deal/E8FE74B9CB34251943B17474F896DF39">New Deal</a>. These wide-ranging programs, designed to tackle the Great Depression, irked many conservatives. They objected to government intervention in business and Roosevelt’s support for labor unions.</p>
<p>As Kruse <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/kevin-m-kruse/one-nation-under-god/9780465097418">notes</a>, this alliance of conservative business leaders and ministers linked “faith, freedom, and free enterprise.”</p>
<p>To be sure, Billy Graham was not singularly responsible for all of these developments. But as his <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674052185">biographers</a> have noted, he loomed large in the religious politics of the 1950s. </p>
<h2>Graham’s legacy</h2>
<p>The prevalence of religious language in U.S. politics that Graham helped inspire continues to this day. Indeed, the Trump administration has been particularly swift to employ it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Trump at the National Prayer Breakfast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In his address to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/national-prayer-breakfast-what-does-its-history-reveal-71978">National Prayer Breakfast</a> on Feb. 8, President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-66th-annual-national-prayer-breakfast/">emphasized</a> the centrality of faith in American life. After describing the country as a “nation of believers,” Trump declared that “our rights are not given to us by man” but “come from our Creator.”</p>
<p>These remarks came a week after Trump linked religion with American identity in his first <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/30/politics/2018-state-of-the-union-transcript/index.html">State of the Union address</a>. On Jan. 30, he similarly invoked “In God We Trust” while proclaiming an “American way” in which “faith and family, not government and bureaucracy, are the center of the American life.”</p>
<p>Trump’s language captured the linking of faith and public life that Graham encouraged as he rose to fame nearly 70 years ago.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-complex-history-of-in-god-we-trust-91117">originally published</a> on Feb. 2, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92229/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Mislin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the 1950s, religious language found its way into government and politics, due in no small part to Billy Graham.David Mislin, Assistant Professor of Intellectual Heritage, Temple UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/911172018-02-02T22:12:17Z2018-02-02T22:12:17ZThe complex history of ‘In God We Trust’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204654/original/file-20180202-19961-1h3wcx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'In God we Trust' on dollar bills.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/100-us-dollar-bills-banknotes-god-718702042?src=9yS-abD5iZbsfQAyopGoTQ-1-12">Stepan Lytovchenko/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In his address to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/national-prayer-breakfast-what-does-its-history-reveal-71978">National Prayer Breakfast</a> on the morning of Feb. 8, President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-66th-annual-national-prayer-breakfast/">emphasized</a> the centrality of faith in American life. After describing the country as a “nation of believers,” Trump reminded his audience that American currency features the phrase “In God We Trust” as does the Pledge of Allegiance. He also declared that “our rights are not given to us by man” but “come from our Creator.”</p>
<p>These remarks come a week after Trump linked religion with American identity in his first <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/30/politics/2018-state-of-the-union-transcript/index.html">State of the Union address</a>. On Jan. 30, he similarly invoked “In God We Trust” while proclaiming an “American way” in which “faith and family, not government and bureaucracy, are the center of the American life.”</p>
<p>But the history of such language is more complex than Trump’s assertions suggest. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205603/original/file-20180208-180826-1wr10ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Trump at the National Prayer Breakfast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The place of “In God We Trust,” and similar invocations of God in national life, have been a subject of debate. From my perspective as a <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100411860">religious history scholar</a> they reflect a particular view of the United States, not a universally accepted “American way.” </p>
<h2>The Civil War</h2>
<p>Political rhetoric linking the United States with a divine power emerged on a large scale with the outbreak of the Civil War in 1861. M.R. Watkinson, a Pennsylvania clergyman, <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/about/education/Pages/in-god-we-trust.aspx">encouraged</a> the placement of “In God We Trust” on coins at the war’s outset in order to help the North’s cause. Such language, Watkinson wrote, would “place us openly under the divine protection.”</p>
<p>Putting the phrase on coins was just the beginning. </p>
<p>In 1864, with the Civil War still raging, a group supported by the North’s major Protestant denominations began advocating change to the preamble of the Constitution. The proposed language – which anticipated President Trump’s remarks about the origin of Americans’ rights – would have <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=x9kIjlT32OUC&lpg=PA122&ots=y6ELj_i7Ki&dq=civil%20war%20almighty%20god%20constitutional%20amendment&pg=PA122#v=onepage&q&f=false">declared</a> that Americans recognized “Almighty God as the source of all authority and power in civil government.”</p>
<p>If the amendment’s supporters had succeeded in having their way, Christian belief would be deeply embedded in the United States government. </p>
<p>But, such invocations of God in national politics were not to last. Despite lobbying by major Protestant denominations such as the Methodists, this so-called Sovereignty of God amendment was never ratified. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204655/original/file-20180202-19933-1wcwhxp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1849 liberty head design by James B. Longacre.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/df/NNC-US-1866-G%2420-Liberty_Head_%28motto%29.jpg">National Numismatic Collection, National Museum of American History.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though “In God We Trust” was added to coins, it was not added to the increasingly common paper money. In fact, when coins were redesigned late in the 19th century, it disappeared from coins as well.</p>
<p>As I demonstrate in my <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100411860">book</a>, these developments were related to the spread of secularism in the post-Civil War U.S. For many people at the time, placing religious language in the Constitution or on symbols of government was not consistent with American ideals. </p>
<h2>The revival of ‘In God We Trust’</h2>
<p>The 1950s, however, witnessed a dramatic resurgence of religious language in government and politics. It was that decade that brought “In God We Trust” into widespread use.</p>
<p>In 1955, President Dwight Eisenhower signed a bill placing the phrase on all American currency. One sponsor of that legislation, Congressman Charles Bennett, echoed the sentiments that had inspired the Sovereignty of God amendment during the Civil War. Bennett <a href="http://history.house.gov/Historical-Highlights/1951-2000/The-legislation-placing-%E2%80%9CIn-God-We-Trust%E2%80%9D-on-national-currency/">proclaimed</a>, that the U.S. “was founded in a spiritual atmosphere and with a firm trust in God.”</p>
<p>The next year, “In God We Trust” <a href="https://origins.osu.edu/history-news/god-we-trust-or-e-pluribus-unum-american-founders-preferred-latter-motto">was adopted</a> as the first official motto of the United States.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204656/original/file-20180202-19929-jnmm9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/204656/original/file-20180202-19929-jnmm9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204656/original/file-20180202-19929-jnmm9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204656/original/file-20180202-19929-jnmm9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204656/original/file-20180202-19929-jnmm9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204656/original/file-20180202-19929-jnmm9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/204656/original/file-20180202-19929-jnmm9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Capitol’s ‘In God We Trust’ plaque.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flickr_-_USCapitol_-_%22In_God_We_Trust%22_Plaque.jpg">USCapitol (</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Both of these developments reflected the desire to emphasize Americans’ religious commitment in the early years of the Cold War. Historians such as Jonathan Herzog have <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-spiritual-industrial-complex-9780195393460?cc=us&lang=en&">chronicled</a> how leaders ranging from President Eisenhower to the evangelist Billy Graham stressed on the strong faith of the nation in setting the U.S. apart from the godlessness of Soviet communism. </p>
<p>Recently, however, Princeton University historian <a href="https://history.princeton.edu/people/kevin-m-kruse">Kevin Kruse</a> has <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/kevin-m-kruse/one-nation-under-god/9780465097418/">shown</a> that religious language was not merely rhetoric against communism. “In God We Trust” reflected domestic concerns as well.</p>
<p>The belief in American religiosity that put “In God We Trust” on coins and made it the national motto in the 1950s had emerged over several decades. Conservative businessmen had allied with ministers, including Billy Graham, to combat the social welfare policies and government expansion that began with Franklin Roosevelt’s <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/concise-history-of-the-new-deal/E8FE74B9CB34251943B17474F896DF39">New Deal</a>. These wide-ranging programs, designed to tackle the Great Depression, irked many conservatives. They objected to government intervention in business and Roosevelt’s support for labor unions.</p>
<p>As Kruse <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/kevin-m-kruse/one-nation-under-god/9780465097418">notes</a>, this alliance of conservative business leaders and ministers linked “faith, freedom, and free enterprise.”</p>
<p>In this way then, President Trump’s repeated assertions of “In God We Trust” could be said to reflect certain American values. But, as my research shows, for much of U.S. history, the acceptance of such values ebbed and flowed.</p>
<p>“In God We Trust” is a not a motto that reflects universally shared historical values. Rather it represents a particular political, economic and religious perspective – one that is embraced by President Trump and the modern GOP. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on Feb. 2, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91117/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Mislin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>President Trump claims that America is a nation based in faith. A scholar says, it’s more complicated.David Mislin, Assistant Professor, Intellectual Heritage Program, Temple UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/898072018-01-08T15:24:50Z2018-01-08T15:24:50ZFire and Fury aside, what can you read to understand Trump?<p>Few books on American politics have ever <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42597764">dominated the news cycle</a> like Fire and Fury, Michael Wolff’s tell-all book about Donald Trump, his presidential campaign and first year in the White House. In the book itself, as well as in Trump’s response (<a href="https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/949498795074736129">sample tweet</a>): “Michael Wolff is a total loser who made up stories in order to sell this really boring and untruthful book”), historians now have an unexpected bounty of material to pick over for years to come. </p>
<p>With Trump himself weighing in so loudly, it’s easy to miss the signal in the noise. Without wanting to give too much credence to any potential strategy of the Trump administration, it pays to think about what students of the US presidency can and cannot learn from existing theories on the presidency, when applied to the current office holder – if nothing else, to help weigh up how the administration’s actions might affect Trump’s chances of re-election.</p>
<p>For many, the foundational text that tried to theorise the US executive is Richard Neustadt’s book <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Presidential-Power-Modern-Presidents-Leadership/dp/0029227968/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1515352055&sr=1-1&keywords=Presidential+Power+and+the+Modern+President">Presidential Power and the Modern President</a>, originally published in 1960. Neustadt argued that thanks to the structure of the US government, the power of presidents is measured mainly by their ability to “persuade” others. According to 1950s commentator <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=elGozulX_o8C&pg=PA10&lpg=PA10&dq=Robert+Donovan+eisenhower+explode+exasperation&source=bl&ots=XQDMXG8d9N&sig=KnelXkQJoRSq9jZoL81QfY_ioTg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjezfvUxcjYAhXSyaQKHSKRBg4Q6AEIODAC#v=onepage&q=Robert%20Donovan%20eisenhower%20explode%20exasperation&f=false">Robert Donovan</a>, this feature of the office infuriated the 34th president, veteran General Dwight D. Eisenhower: “In the face of the continuing dissonance and disunity, the president sometimes simply exploded with exasperation.”</p>
<p>Given the Trump administration has failed to score any significant legislative victories despite holding majorities in both houses of Congress – aside from a highly controversial and regressive tax bill – Neustadt’s work seems as resonant as ever. And if the Republicans lose control of either or both chambers of Congress in November’s midterm elections, Trump will need more than ever to develop his ability to persuade those he disagrees with rather than simply pummelling them.</p>
<h2>Reign of the mad man</h2>
<p>While the social media broadside is Trump’s preferred way to communicate with the American people, that doesn’t make him unique; Theodore Roosevelt for one made no secret of his belief that the presidency could be used as a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/07/04/535429508/trump-s-weekend-gives-twist-to-meaning-of-bully-pulpit">bully pulpit</a>. But historians usually think of Roosevelt as a president who strived to clearly articulate a moral agenda by using what Neustadt called the “status and authority inherent in his office”. Judging by Fire and Fury and other accounts, it’s not clear that Trump is capable of this, or that he even has a vision beyond the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/the-inaugural-address/">nebulous slogan</a> “America First”.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201166/original/file-20180108-83574-jg70kj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201166/original/file-20180108-83574-jg70kj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201166/original/file-20180108-83574-jg70kj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201166/original/file-20180108-83574-jg70kj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201166/original/file-20180108-83574-jg70kj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201166/original/file-20180108-83574-jg70kj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201166/original/file-20180108-83574-jg70kj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Arthur Schlesinger Jr.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Arthur_Schlesinger,_Jr._NBC-TV_program_1951.JPG">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Thirteen years after Neustadt’s tome was published, Arthur Schlesinger proffered what is still the most famous of all theories on the US executive: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU3ZvXNbcTs">The Imperial Presidency</a>. Influenced by the twin nightmares of Watergate and Vietnam, Schlesinger set out a dystopian vision of an office corrupted by war-making powers assigned to presidents by the US Constitution, and identified just how much the judicious (or otherwise) use of the Imperial Presidency depended on the character of its incumbent.</p>
<p>Richard Nixon, for instance, sought to force concessions on his adversaries abroad by invoking the so-called <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/02/the-madman-theory-of-north-korea">Mad Man Theory</a> – a strategy to convince his adversaries he was so unpredictable and virulently anti-communist that American power under his watch was a force to be both respected and feared. Perhaps this was the thinking behind Trump’s infamous “my button is bigger” tweet railing at Kim Jong-un on January 2 2017.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"948355557022420992"}"></div></p>
<p>During the 1980s, Ronald Reagan pursued a not-too-dissimilar strategy. At the end of that decade, Coral Bell described the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/1990-03-01/reagan-paradox-us-foreign-policy-1980s">Reagan Paradox</a>: a style that blended aggressive ideological rhetoric designed to cow the Soviet Union and the communist world with a more pragmatic, conciliatory “operational policy”. </p>
<p>But again, all the work done to make sense of previous presidencies seems of little use today. From what we currently know about the Trump administration, it is difficult to imagine this president or those around him operating with enough self-reflection to frame a rationale, however reckless or dangerous, that can compare with Nixon’s or Reagan’s.</p>
<h2>Stirring them up</h2>
<p>For many Trump supporters and what remains of the Tea Party movement, a better point of reference is G. Calvin Mackenzie’s 2016 work <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=5PGeCwAAQBAJ&pg=PR4&lpg=PR4&dq=Calvin+Mackenzie%E2%80%99s+%E2%80%98Imperiled+Presidency%E2%80%99&source=bl&ots=ht-DZn4NfQ&sig=WvRGz3GSIoUnafucj0uPNOMyG7w&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj5g-eXzsbYAhWBI8AKHY-yDZ84ChDoAQhKMAY#v=onepage&q&f=false">The Imperiled Presidency</a>. As Mackenzie sees it, the office of the president is by its very nature “imperiled” because it’s too weak and bureaucratically constricted to properly exert influence over a federal government that’s too big and out of control. </p>
<p>This condones the familiar idea that <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/09/meet-the-new-swamp/540540/">Washington is a “swamp”</a> overrun by lobbyists trying to extract money and special treatment from a corrupt system. Many Trump supporters argue that this is where “their” president can offer a fresh approach as a political outsider ostensibly accustomed to “getting things done”.</p>
<p>It may be that Trump can keep mobilising his supporters from the bully pulpit, a Rooseveltian Persuader-in-Chief operating via Twitter. He could also continue to project his rhetoric overseas in ways reminiscent of Nixon or Reagan. But post-Fire and Fury in particular, it seems more likely that future historians will need a new category altogether to make sense of Trump. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/06/jack-shafer-swamp-diary-trump-bannon-216252">Politico’s Jack Shafer</a> noted, Fire and Fury has cemented Trump’s reputation “as a shallow, narcissistic, dim, post-literate, impulsive, temperamental and doddering buffoon who blusters and lurches from crisis to crisis”. Of all Trump’s 44 predecessors, none comes close to fitting that description.</p>
<p>Regardless, the furore over Wolff’s book will also reinforce many Trump supporters’ most distinctive view: that the “elite” is hostile to both the insurgent president and those who voted for him. Perhaps this will make them even more likely to vote for him in 2020 – providing years of baffling material for future thinkers to try and make sense of.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89807/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Historians, commentators and thinkers have written endless books on how the US presidency works. None of them applies to the incumbent, Donald Trump.Peter Finn, Lecturer in Politics, Kingston UniversityRobert Ledger, Visiting Professor, Schiller International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/788962017-06-08T02:36:53Z2017-06-08T02:36:53ZJ Edgar Hoover’s oversteps: Why FBI directors are forbidden from getting cozy with presidents<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172825/original/file-20170607-29563-t1c9ub.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former FBI Director James Comey testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>How are U.S. presidents and FBI directors supposed to communicate?</p>
<p>A new FBI director has recently been nominated, former Assistant Attorney General Christopher Wray. He will certainly be thinking carefully about this question as he awaits confirmation.</p>
<p>Former FBI Director James Comey’s relationship with President Donald Trump was strained at best. Comey was concerned that Trump had approached him on <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/os-jcomey-060817.pdf">nine different occasions</a> in two months. In his testimony to Congress, Comey stated that under President Barack Obama, he had spoken with the president only twice in three years.</p>
<p>Comey expressed concern about this to colleagues, and tried to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/06/us/politics/comey-sessions-trump.html">distance himself</a> from the president. He tried to tell Trump the proper procedures for communicating with the FBI. These policies have been enmeshed in <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/white-house-interference-justice-department-investigations-2009-holder-memo">Justice Department guidelines</a>. And for good reason.</p>
<p>FBI historians <a href="http://greaterallegheny.psu.edu/person/douglas-m-charles-phd">like myself</a> know that, since the 1970s, bureau directors try to maintain a discrete distance from the president. This tradition grew out of reforms that followed the often questionable behavior of former FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover, who served from 1924 to 1972.</p>
<p>Over this long period, Hoover’s relationships with six different presidents often became dangerously close, crossing ethical and legal lines. This history can help us understand Comey’s concerns about Trump and help put his testimony into larger context.</p>
<p>As the nation’s chief law enforcement arm, the FBI today is tasked with three main responsibilities: investigating violations of federal law, pursuing counterterrorism cases and disrupting the work of foreign intelligence operatives. Anything beyond these raises serious ethical questions.</p>
<h2>From FDR to Nixon</h2>
<p>When Franklin Roosevelt became president in 1933, <a href="https://ohiostatepress.org/books/Book%20Pages/Charles%20Edgar.html">Hoover worked hard</a> to develop a close working relationship with the president. Roosevelt helped promote Hoover’s crime control program and expand FBI authority. Hoover grew the FBI from a small, relatively limited agency into a large and influential one. He then provided the president with information on his critics, and even some <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684520500133836">foreign intelligence</a>, all while <a href="http://www.personal.psu.edu/dmc166/Hoover%20FDR.JPG">ingratiating himself</a> with FDR to retain his job.</p>
<p>President Harry Truman <a href="http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,879566-3,00.html">didn’t much like Hoover</a>, and thought his FBI was a potential “<a href="http://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Truman/David-McCullough/9780671869205">citizen spy system</a>.” </p>
<p>Hoover found President Dwight Eisenhower to be an ideological ally with an interest in expanding FBI surveillance. This <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/978-0-7006-1345-8.html">led to increased FBI use</a> of illegal microphones and wiretaps. The president looked the other way as the FBI carried out its sometimes questionable investigations. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172546/original/file-20170606-3677-mtgq0v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172546/original/file-20170606-3677-mtgq0v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172546/original/file-20170606-3677-mtgq0v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172546/original/file-20170606-3677-mtgq0v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172546/original/file-20170606-3677-mtgq0v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172546/original/file-20170606-3677-mtgq0v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172546/original/file-20170606-3677-mtgq0v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172546/original/file-20170606-3677-mtgq0v.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and Director of FBI J. Edgar Hoover.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/81/Visit_of_Attorney_General_and_Director_of_FBI._President_Kennedy%2C_J.Edgar_Hoover%2C_Robert_F._Kennedy._White_House..._-_NARA_-_194173.jpg">Wikimedia Commons/Abbie Rowe</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But when John F. Kennedy became president in 1961, <a href="http://www.temple.edu/tempress/titles/572_reg.html">Hoover’s relationship with the president faced a challenge</a>. JFK’s brother, Robert Kennedy, was made attorney general. Given JFK’s close relationship with his brother, Hoover could no longer bypass his boss and deal directly with the president, as he so often did in the past. Not seeing eye to eye with the Kennedys, Hoover cut back on volunteering political intelligence reports to the White House. Instead, he only responded to requests, while collecting information on JFK’s extramarital affairs.</p>
<p>By contrast, President Lyndon Johnson had a voracious appetite for FBI political intelligence reports. Under his presidency, the FBI became a direct vehicle for servicing the president’s political interests. LBJ issued <a href="http://www.personal.psu.edu/dmc166/IMG_0249.jpg">an executive order</a> exempting Hoover from mandatory retirement at the time, when the FBI director reached age 70. Owing his job to LBJ, Hoover designated a top FBI official, FBI Assistant Director <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4390370/cartha-deloach">Cartha “Deke” DeLoach</a>, as the official FBI liaison to the president.</p>
<p>The FBI monitored the Democratic National Convention at LBJ’s request. When Johnson’s aide, Walter Jenkins, was caught soliciting gay sex in a YMCA, <a href="http://www.personal.psu.edu/dmc166/Oct%2014,%201964%20Deloach%205884.mp3">Deke DeLoach worked directly</a> with the president in dealing with the backlash. </p>
<p>One might think that when Richard Nixon ascended to the presidency in 1968, he would have found an ally in Hoover, given their shared anti-Communism. <a href="https://kansaspress.ku.edu/978-0-7006-1345-8.html">Hoover continued</a> to provide a wealth of political intelligence to Nixon through a formal program called INLET. However, <a href="http://www.temple.edu/tempress/titles/572_reg.html">Hoover also felt vulnerable</a> given intensified public protest due to the Vietnam War and public focus on his actions at the FBI. </p>
<p>Hoover held back in using intrusive surveillance such as wiretaps, microphones and break-ins as he had in the past. He resisted Nixon’s attempts to centralize intelligence coordination in the White House, especially when Nixon asked that the FBI use intrusive surveillance to find White House leaks. Not satisfied, the Nixon administration created its own leak-stopping unit: the White House plumbers – which ended in the Watergate scandal.</p>
<p>Not until after Hoover’s death did Americans learn of his <a href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/94intelligence_activities_VI.pdf">abuses of authority</a>. Reform followed. </p>
<p>In 1976, Congress <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/history/directors">mandated a 10-year term</a> for FBI directors. The Justice Department later issued <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1981/01/17/guidelines-are-civilettis-monument/9034b608-b761-4f8b-9fe0-49dc007dda9e/?utm_term=.1402e4ec7a01">guidelines</a> on how the FBI director was to deal with the White House and the president, and how to conduct investigations. These guidelines have been reaffirmed, revised and reissued by subsequent attorneys general, <a href="https://lawfare.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/staging/2017/2009%20Eric%20Holder%20memo.pdf">most recently in 2009</a>. The guidelines state, for example: “Initial communications between the Department and the White House concerning pending or contemplated criminal investigations or cases will involve only the Attorney General or the Deputy Attorney General.”</p>
<p>These rules were intended to ensure the integrity of criminal investigations, avoid political influence and protect both the Justice Department and president. If Trump attempted to bypass these guidelines and woo Comey, that would represent a potentially dangerous return to the past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78896/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas M. Charles does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hoover abused his power as FBI director to serve presidents’ interests. The reforms that followed were set up to prevent it from happening again.Douglas M. Charles, Associate Professor of History, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/759072017-05-24T17:58:08Z2017-05-24T17:58:08ZWhy it was once unthinkable for the president to be seen with the pope<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170865/original/file-20170524-31352-1je89kv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Trump stands beside Pope Francis at the Vatican on May 24, 2017. An unidentified priest looks on.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-Pope-Francis/6c3d7b21a86b476e860cf461c1245000/7/0">Evan Vucci/AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The much-anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and Pope Francis – the third stop on the first overseas trip of Trump’s presidency – proved successful. Reports from the Vatican note that after “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pope-welcomes-trump-at-the-vatican-despite-past-disagreements/2017/05/24/9b3381c6-4056-11e7-adba-394ee67a7582_story.html">some initial awkwardness”</a> the two men managed to exchange “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/world/europe/pope-trump-vatican-meet.html">smiles and pleasantries</a>,” even amid their well-documented disagreements on issues ranging from immigration to the environment.</p>
<p>That the two men could even manage such pleasantries seemed unthinkable a year ago.</p>
<p>In February 2016, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/18/pope-trump-is-not-christian-if-he-wants-to-build-a-wall-on-the-u-s-mexico-border/?utm_term=.e7b94935b387">the pope criticized</a> Trump’s central campaign pledge of a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. Francis suggested that Trump “is not a Christian if he said things like that.” </p>
<p>The response by Trump and his supporters moved the conversation beyond policy specifics. They raised the broader question of the pope’s involvement in politics. While reminding audiences that he is “proud to be a Christian,” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/02/11/donald-trump-criticizes-pope-francis-as-very-political-for-mexico-trip/">Trump attacked</a> Francis for being a “very political person.” In the campaign’s suggestion that the pope was interfering in U.S. politics, some observers heard echoes of older religious bigotry. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/02/18/in-his-fight-with-pope-francis-donald-trump-is-bringing-anti-catholicism-back">One commentator wondered</a> if Trump was “bringing anti-Catholicism back.”</p>
<p>This was not an unreasonable question to ask.</p>
<p>As the author of <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100411860">“Saving Faith</a>,” a book on the efforts to develop a culture that respected religious pluralism in the United States a century ago, I recognize the issues at stake here: For the better part of a century, the GOP was the political home of anti-Catholicism in the U.S. </p>
<h2>History of anti-Catholicism</h2>
<p>During the late 19th century, <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/when-america-hated-catholics-213177">large numbers of Catholics</a> immigrated to the United States. Republicans frequently espoused open hostility to the newcomers. <a href="https://www.uncpress.org/book/9780807848494/rum-romanism-and-rebellion/">In 1884</a>, a prominent supporter of the GOP’s presidential nominee denounced Democrats as the party of “Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion.” Campaign rhetoric that year suggested that Catholics were a destabilizing force in American society.</p>
<p>More generally, observers proclaimed that Catholics maintained allegiance to the church first and to American values and institutions second. <a href="http://elections.harpweek.com/1876/cartoon-1876-large.asp?UniqueID=7">Anti-Catholic cartoons</a> suggested that Catholics would use political power to dismantle the nation’s institutions. This baseless fear had circulated in the U.S. since the arrival of Irish Catholics several decades earlier. It often <a href="http://books.wwnorton.com/books/Catholicism-and-American-Freedom/">centered on the belief</a> that Catholics, at the pope’s behest, would try to dismantle the nation’s public education systems. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170667/original/file-20170523-5757-rx9zpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170667/original/file-20170523-5757-rx9zpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170667/original/file-20170523-5757-rx9zpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170667/original/file-20170523-5757-rx9zpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170667/original/file-20170523-5757-rx9zpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170667/original/file-20170523-5757-rx9zpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170667/original/file-20170523-5757-rx9zpy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Governor Alfred E. Smith after his nomination by the Democratic National Convention in Houston for the presidency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Anti-Catholic rhetoric became especially heated when Catholics ran for public office. In 1928, Democrats nominated the first Catholic candidate for president, <a href="http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1495.html">Al Smith</a>. A wave of bigotry followed. As in the late 19th century, <a href="https://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/when-a-catholic-terrified-the-heartland/">critics argued</a> that the Catholic Church was too political. The Vatican would use a Catholic president as a way to meddle in U.S. politics.</p>
<p>Following Smith’s defeat, 32 years would pass before Democrats nominated another Roman Catholic candidate: John F. Kennedy. Before Kennedy won the close election, though, <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/JFK-and-Religion.aspx">he also faced questions</a> about whether he was loyal to the U.S. or to the pope.</p>
<h2>Fighting anti-Catholicism</h2>
<p>Of course, it would be wrong to suggest that the GOP’s history is only one of anti-Catholicism. Even at the height of anti-Catholic bigotry during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, prominent voices within the party offered an alternative.</p>
<p>As I discuss in <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100411860">my study of religious pluralism</a> in the early 20th century, some famous Republicans were among those who worked hardest to fight anti-Catholicism.</p>
<p>When he ran for president in 1896, William McKinley made outreach to Catholic voters a central part of his campaign. This was especially noteworthy because earlier in his career, McKinley had urged Republican candidates to target voters who “hate the Catholics.” Though they continued to overwhelmingly support Democrats, <a href="http://books.wwnorton.com/books/Catholicism-and-American-Freedom/">McKinley was the first GOP candidate</a> to make substantial inroads with Catholic voters.</p>
<p>Theodore Roosevelt, who became president when McKinley was assassinated in 1901, did even more to fight anti-Catholicism. Throughout his career, he published articles and speeches denouncing religious bigotry. According to Roosevelt, people who espoused anti-Catholic views were “<a href="http://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/true-americanism-the-forum-magazine/">entirely un-American</a>.” The military hero and popular politician <a href="http://www.theodore-roosevelt.com/images/research/speeches/trta.pdf">rejected</a> “any discrimination against or for a man because of his creed.”</p>
<h2>Bringing Catholics into the party</h2>
<p>Though it took decades after his death, Roosevelt’s perspective ultimately triumphed within the GOP. During the late 20th century, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/we-gather-together-9780199738984?cc=us&lang=en&">Catholic voters increasingly found common ground</a> with Republicans on social issues such as abortion and a commitment to fighting communism abroad. What had once been the party of anti-Catholicism <a href="http://cara.georgetown.edu/presidential%20vote%20only.pdf">regularly won the support</a> of nearly half of U.S. Catholics.</p>
<p>By 2016, the GOP had so expunged its anti-Catholic past that <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/07/23/the-2016-gop-field-has-a-bumper-crop-of-catholic-candidates/">many candidates</a> for the party’s nomination for president – including Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie – were Catholic.</p>
<h2>Presidents and popes</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170668/original/file-20170523-5799-1ibcdod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/170668/original/file-20170523-5799-1ibcdod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170668/original/file-20170523-5799-1ibcdod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170668/original/file-20170523-5799-1ibcdod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170668/original/file-20170523-5799-1ibcdod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170668/original/file-20170523-5799-1ibcdod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/170668/original/file-20170523-5799-1ibcdod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this Dec. 6, 1959 file photo, President Dwight D. Eisenhower walks with Pope John XXIII at the Vatican.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Paul Schutzer, File</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Republican politicians also became willing to do what was once unthinkable: be seen with the pope. In 1959, Dwight Eisenhower became the first U.S. president to visit the Vatican. A representative of the party that had once campaigned on the fear that Catholic leaders would interfere in American politics had gone to Rome to meet the pope. Eisenhower set a lasting precedent. <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/09/23/442589678/the-complicated-history-of-popes-and-u-s-presidents">Every Republican president</a> since has made the same trip. </p>
<p>As the 2016 campaign progressed, Donald Trump avoided igniting additional feuds with Francis. Although analysts believed that the candidate had a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/28/donald-trump-has-a-massive-catholic-problem/?utm_term=.6bb45266f329">Catholic problem</a>,” Trump did quite well with Catholic voters on Election Day. He not only won white Catholics, but <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/how-the-faithful-voted-a-preliminary-2016-analysis/">he increased</a> the GOP’s share of Catholic voters over 2008 and 2012. Despite his sharp rhetoric on immigration, Trump also won a larger share of Hispanic Catholic voters than the GOP did in those years. </p>
<p>The meeting at the Vatican might well allow Trump an opportunity to put any lingering suspicion of anti-Catholicism to rest and cast himself as the heir of McKinley and Roosevelt’s views on Catholicism. As he departed for Belgium, the
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pope-welcomes-trump-at-the-vatican-despite-past-disagreements/2017/05/24/9b3381c6-4056-11e7-adba-394ee67a7582_story.html?utm_term=.a8a5a7a212a2">president tweeted</a>, “Honor of a lifetime to meet His Holiness Pope Francis.” That’s a far cry from <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/world/europe/pope-trump-vatican-meet.html">Trump’s past tweets</a> about the pope.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75907/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Mislin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The GOP was once the political home of anti-Catholicism. And the Vatican, it was believed, would use a Catholic president as a way to meddle in US politics.David Mislin, Assistant Professor, Intellectual Heritage Program, Temple UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/762682017-04-20T00:28:43Z2017-04-20T00:28:43ZTrump and the history of the ‘first 100 days’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165954/original/file-20170419-2401-ae05v2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will history give Trump a thumbs-up for his first 100 days?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government is currently being funded by a continuing resolution that expires on April 28, 2017 – which also happens to be the 99th day of Donald Trump’s presidency. </p>
<p>If Congress fails to approve a new spending deal before then, Trump’s 100th day as president will begin with a <a href="http://www.rollcall.com/news/opinion/trump-spending-bill-shutdown?utm_content=buffer3279d">federal government shutdown</a>. </p>
<p>The last government shutdown took place under President Obama and lasted for more than two weeks in 2013. Hundreds of thousands of federal government <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304373104579107480729687014">employees were furloughed</a>. The Smithsonian museums and National Park Service sites were closed, including the Statue of Liberty, Independence Hall in Philadelphia and the Washington monuments and memorials. </p>
<p>With current fights in Congress over spending on the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/29/politics/john-mccain-cr-continuing-resolution-shutdown/">military</a>, the <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/gop-voters-open-to-government-shutdown-over-border-wall/article/2619410">border wall</a> and <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/sanctuary-cities-crackdown-government-shutdown-237121">sanctuary cities</a>, it’s certainly possible that no new continuing resolution will be passed in time.</p>
<p>That would make Trump’s 100th day in office an unusual anniversary, but the truth is not all recent presidents have much to brag about when it comes to the impact of their first months in office.</p>
<h2>Creating the concept</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165961/original/file-20170419-2423-ah1val.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165961/original/file-20170419-2423-ah1val.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165961/original/file-20170419-2423-ah1val.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165961/original/file-20170419-2423-ah1val.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165961/original/file-20170419-2423-ah1val.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165961/original/file-20170419-2423-ah1val.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165961/original/file-20170419-2423-ah1val.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165961/original/file-20170419-2423-ah1val.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vice President John Nance Garner (left) affectionately pats the head of President Franklin D. Roosevelt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The idea of using a president’s first 100 days in office as a way to evaluate him began in 1933 with Franklin D. Roosevelt – although FDR actually had in mind measuring the New Deal achievements of the first 100 days of a special congressional session that year. In a <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=14488">July 24 Fireside Chat</a>, FDR referred to “the crowding events of the 100 days which had been devoted to the starting of the wheels of the New Deal.” Journalists, historians and political scientists continued the practice of looking for accomplishments in the early months of a presidency.</p>
<p>During those 100 days, FDR got many <a href="http://history.house.gov/HistoricalHighlight/Detail/35195?ret=True">major bills</a> through Congress to battle the economic crisis of the Great Depression. These bills created the Public Works Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corps to provide job opportunities, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to insure bank deposits and the Tennessee Valley Authority to provide rural electricity. This flurry of activity became the standard by which future presidents would be judged – often coming up short.</p>
<p>In a 2001 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/106591290105400409">study</a>, political scientists John Frendreis, Raymond Tatalovich and Jon Schaff determined that the presidents who followed FDR have not come close to his success levels in seeing proposed bills pass into law so early in their administrations. The authors attributed that to changes in Congress that have slowed down the lawmaking process. </p>
<p>Let’s consider how the presidents have done.</p>
<h2>Truman to Clinton</h2>
<p>Following FDR’s death, Harry Truman’s <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/history/articles/2009/02/26/the-first-100-days-harry-truman-showed-decisiveness-and-intelligence">first 100 days</a> were focused on the closing battles of World War II, with Germany’s surrender occurring less than one month after Truman took office. </p>
<p>Dwight Eisenhower’s first 100 days were similarly dominated by foreign policy, including the death of Soviet Union leader Joseph Stalin and negotiations to end the Korean War.</p>
<p>John Kennedy entered office with an ambitious agenda, which included the creation of the Peace Corps, but his first 100 days are probably <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/opinion/26reeves.html">best remembered</a> for the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba. </p>
<p>Lyndon Johnson’s first 100 days were most consumed by coping with the aftermath of Kennedy’s assassination, but LBJ also used the period and <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/history/articles/2009/03/05/the-first-100-days-lyndon-johnson-fulfilled-kennedys-legacy">Kennedy’s legacy</a> to begin the groundwork to pass major civil rights and war on poverty legislation.</p>
<p>While Richard Nixon also promoted an ambitious domestic agenda in the White House, his first 100 days contained no major visible achievements at the time. <a href="http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1969/04/28/page/3/article/nixon-weighs-programs-of-1st-100-days">Nixon told reporters:</a> “I don’t count either the days or the hours, really. I never thought in those terms. I plan for a long term.” Later, it was revealed that he had ordered a <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/u-s-bombs-cambodia-for-the-first-time">secret bombing</a> of Cambodia during the period. </p>
<p>Gerald Ford’s <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/history/articles/2009/03/19/the-first-100-days-clinton-and-ford-got-off-to-a-rocky-start">first 100 days</a> are best remembered for his swearing-in ceremony following Nixon’s resignation, when he announced that “our long national nightmare is over.” He then pardoned Nixon one month later for any crimes the former president had committed in office.</p>
<p>Jimmy Carter also had an inauspicious start. Possibly due to his inexperience in Washington, he asked Congress to pursue several different domestic policy goals, many of which never passed into law. Perhaps best remembered from Carter’s early months is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbNFKgNoWc0">his speech</a> from the White House to declare that energy policy and efforts to end American dependence on oil were the “moral equivalent of war.”</p>
<p>Ronald Reagan’s administration drew the lesson from his immediate predecessor that it was best to focus on one or two domestic issues during the first 100 days. Reagan spent <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/history/articles/2009/03/12/the-first-100-days-reagan-pushed-his-agenda-of-tax-cuts-and-less-government">his first months</a> as president promoting an agenda of tax and spending cuts, though those did not pass into law until August 1981, four months later. Reagan’s first 100 days as president were also notable for the assassination attempt made against him, which limited his political efforts for part of the time period.</p>
<p>George H.W. Bush’s first 100 days as president were largely a continuation of the policies of the Reagan presidency. They were noted at the time for being <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1989/04/23/opinion/president-bush-s-hundred-days-seen-against-ronald-reagan-s-2922-days.html">relatively uneventful</a>, with a congressional battle over a secretary of defense nominee and the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska dominating the political news.</p>
<p>The biggest political news story during Bill Clinton’s first 100 days was probably the failure of his stimulus package of domestic spending increases to get past a Republican filibuster in the Senate, though the eventual budget that resulted helped steer the United States toward budget surpluses later in the decade. Clinton’s <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/history/articles/2009/03/19/the-first-100-days-clinton-and-ford-got-off-to-a-rocky-start">first month</a> also included his signing of the Family and Medical Leave Act into law, the start of a debate about service of gays in the military and the creation of a task force on national health care reform, chaired by Hillary Clinton.</p>
<h2>The 21st century</h2>
<p>George W. Bush took office in January 2001 after a disputed electoral outcome in Florida led to a 5-4 Supreme Court decision that essentially made him president. In a politically divided country, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2001/ALLPOLITICS/04/25/bush.interview.02/">Bush’s strategy</a> seemed to be to avoid controversy and build his political capital, with his major legislative proposals in the time period involving tax cuts and education reform.</p>
<p>Due to the economic crisis that began during Bush’s final months as president, Barack Obama’s first 100 days in office were dominated by the passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, a package of economic stimulus investments that <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/first_quarter_2017/the-recovery-act-of-2009-vs-fdrs-new-deal-which-was-bigger">by some measures</a> was even larger than those passed in FDR’s 100 days in 1933. During a <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-on-economic-crisis-transition/">CBS “60 Minutes” interview</a> in November 2008, Obama even said he was reading about FDR’s 100 days as an example.</p>
<p>Which brings us back to Donald Trump.</p>
<p>Trump’s main political success so far has been the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. His promised repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act failed to get support in Congress. His attempted travel entry bans of citizens of certain Islamic countries into the U.S. and attempted suspension of refugee entry have so far led to massive protests and have been blocked by federal judges.</p>
<p>The Trump administration has also taken military action in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan, approved the construction of oil pipelines through North Dakota and sent out a request for <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/mexico-border-wall-construction-contract-bids-open-march-6/">contract bids</a> to build a border wall with Mexico. It’s not clear yet which of these events will be well-remembered a year – or 10 – from now.</p>
<p>One thing is sure. If the Liberty Bell or the Lincoln Memorial is closed to tourists on Trump’s 100th day as president, it’s likely that government malfunction will be what is remembered about Trump’s first few months in office.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Speel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Franklin D. Roosevelt is famous for really getting a lot done fast. Will history remember Trump so kindly?Robert Speel, Associate Professor of Political Science, Erie campus, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/745852017-04-04T00:44:38Z2017-04-04T00:44:38ZHow World War I ushered in the century of oil<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163681/original/image-20170403-21938-g2xqwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Navy converted to oil from coal a few years before the U.S. entered World War I, helping to solidify petroleum's strategic status.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.history.navy.mil/our-collections/photography/numerical-list-of-images/nhhc-series/nh-series/NH-121000/NH-121653.html">Naval History and Heritage Command</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On July 7, 1919, a group of U.S. military members dedicated Zero Milestone – the point from which all road distances in the country would be measured – just south of the White House lawn in Washington, D.C. The next morning, they helped to define the future of the nation. </p>
<p>Instead of an exploratory rocket or deep-sea submarine, these explorers set out in 42 trucks, five passenger cars and an assortment of motorcycles, ambulances, tank trucks, mobile field kitchens, mobile repair shops and <a href="http://www.goarmy.com/soldier-life/becoming-a-soldier/advanced-individual-training/signal-corps.html">Signal Corps</a> searchlight trucks. During the first three days of driving, they managed just over five miles per hour. This was most troubling because their goal was to explore the condition of American roads by driving across the U.S.</p>
<p>Participating in this <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/zero.cfm">exploratory party</a> was U.S. Army Captain Dwight D. Eisenhower. Although he played a critical role in many portions of 20th-century U.S. history, his passion for roads may have carried the most significant impact on the domestic front. This trek, literally and figuratively, caught the nation and the young soldier at a crossroads. </p>
<p>Returning from World War I, Ike was entertaining the idea of leaving the military and accepting a civilian job. His decision to remain proved pivotal for the nation. By the end of the first half of the century, the roadscape – transformed with an <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/interstate/finalmap.cfm">interstate highway system</a> while he was president – helped remake the nation and the lives of its occupants. </p>
<p>For Ike, though, roadways represented not only domestic development but also national security. By the early 1900s it become clear to many administrators that petroleum was a strategic resource to the nation’s present and future. </p>
<p>At the start of World War I, the world had an oil glut since there were few practical uses for it <a href="https://danielyergin.com/publishing/the-first-war-to-run-on-oil/">beyond kerosene for lighting</a>. When the war was over, the developed world had little doubt that a nation’s future standing in the world was predicated on access to oil. “The Great War” introduced a 19th-century world to modern ideas and technologies, many of which required inexpensive crude. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163669/original/image-20170403-21933-1uwmp8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163669/original/image-20170403-21933-1uwmp8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163669/original/image-20170403-21933-1uwmp8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163669/original/image-20170403-21933-1uwmp8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163669/original/image-20170403-21933-1uwmp8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163669/original/image-20170403-21933-1uwmp8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163669/original/image-20170403-21933-1uwmp8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil drilling in Beaumont, Texas in 1901. The U.S. supplied crude to its allies in World War I and relied on domestic production after its entry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-Associated-Press-Domestic-News-Finance-T-/ae5f2d8c75924b06965ef25e235314f4/2/0">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Prime movers and national security</h2>
<p>During and after World War I, there was a <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=11951#">dramatic change in energy production</a>, shifting heavily away from wood and hydropower and toward fossil fuels – coal and, ultimately, petroleum. And in comparison to coal, when utilized in vehicles and ships, petroleum brought flexibility as it could be transported with ease and used in different types of vehicles. That in itself represented a new type of weapon and a basic strategic advantage. Within a few decades of this energy transition, petroleum’s acquisition took on the spirit of an international arms race. </p>
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<p>Even more significant, the international corporations that harvested oil throughout the world acquired a level of significance unknown to other industries, earning the encompassing name “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Oil">Big Oil</a>.” By the 1920s, Big Oil’s product – useless just decades prior – had become the lifeblood of national security to the U.S. and Great Britain. And from the start of this transition, the massive reserves held in the U.S. marked a strategic advantage with the potential to last generations. </p>
<p>As impressive as the U.S.’ domestic oil production was from <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus1&f=a">1900-1920</a>, however, the real revolution occurred on the international scene, as British, Dutch and French European powers used corporations such as Shell, British Petroleum and others to begin developing oil wherever it occurred. </p>
<p>During this era of colonialism, each nation applied its age-old method of economic development by securing petroleum in less developed portions of the world, including Mexico, the Black Sea area and, ultimately, the Middle East. Redrawing global geography based on resource supply (such as gold, rubber and even human labor or slavery) of course, was not new; doing so <a href="https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/185-general/40479-great-power-conflict-over-iraqi-oil-the-world-war-i-era.html">specifically for sources of energy</a> was a striking change. </p>
<h2>Crude proves itself on the battlefield</h2>
<p>“World War I was a war,” <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=C6pGQvVqNAoC&pg=PT246&dq=And+these+machines+were+powered+by+oil&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjL-637l4bTAhUJxoMKHYs0Bq8Q6AEIIjAB#v=onepage&q=And%20these%20machines%20were%20powered%20by%20oil&f=false">writes historian Daniel Yergin</a>, “that was fought between men and machines. And these machines were powered by oil.” </p>
<p>When the war broke out, military strategy was organized around horses and other animals. With one horse on the field for every three men, such primitive modes dominated the fighting in this “transitional conflict.”</p>
<p>Throughout the war, the energy transition took place from horsepower to gas-powered trucks and tanks and, of course, to oil-burning ships and airplanes. Innovations put these <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-us-entered-world-war-i-american-soldiers-depended-on-foreign-weapons-technology-75034">new technologies</a> into immediate action on the horrific battlefield of World War I. </p>
<p>It was the British, for instance, who set out to overcome the stalemate of trench warfare by devising an armored vehicle that was powered by the internal combustion engine. Under its code name “<a href="http://www.iwm.org.uk/history/how-britain-invented-the-tank-in-the-first-world-war">tank</a>,” the vehicle was first used in 1916 at the Battle of the Somme. In addition, the British Expeditionary Force that went to France in 1914 was supported by a fleet of 827 motor cars and 15 motorcycles; by war’s end, the British army included <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=KM4ODAAAQBAJ&pg=PA15&lpg=PA15&dq=British+army+included+56,000+trucks,+23,000+motorcars,+and+34,000+motorcycles+world+war+i&source=bl&ots=lFl0FgrUPx&sig=tJFI3gkKU7Nq1mOYfpj5dshoXdY&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiul9y5mIbTAhVJ2IMKHWfvBY4Q6AEIHTAB#v=onepage&q=British%20army%20included%2056%2C000%20trucks%2C%2023%2C000%20motorcars%2C%20and%2034%2C000%20motorcycles%20world%20war%20i&f=false">56,000 trucks, 23,000 motorcars and 34,000 motorcycles</a>. These gas-powered vehicles offered superior flexibility on the battlefield.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163734/original/image-20170403-21950-iwpinx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163734/original/image-20170403-21950-iwpinx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163734/original/image-20170403-21950-iwpinx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163734/original/image-20170403-21950-iwpinx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163734/original/image-20170403-21950-iwpinx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163734/original/image-20170403-21950-iwpinx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163734/original/image-20170403-21950-iwpinx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Government airplane manufactured by Dayton-Wright Airplane Company in 1918.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usnationalarchives/5506534874/in/photolist-8UCf3R-6WV5jD-9oAqYs-9kYtjo-9oAp9w-6zurAN-8UCf48">U.S. National Archives</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the air and sea, the strategic change was more obvious. By 1915, Britain had built 250 planes. In this era of the Red Baron and others, primitive airplanes often required that the pilot pack his own sidearm and use it for firing at his opponent. More often, though, the flying devices could be used for delivering explosives in episodes of tactical bombing. German pilots applied this new strategy to severe bombing of England with zeppelins and later with aircraft. Over the course of the war, the use of aircraft <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Prize.html?id=WiUTwBTux2oC">expanded remarkably</a>: Britain, 55,000 planes; France, 68,0000 planes; Italy, 20,000; U.S., 15,000; and Germany, 48,000. </p>
<p>With these new uses, wartime petroleum supplies became a critical strategic military issue. Royal Dutch/Shell provided the war effort with much of its supply of crude. In addition, Britain expanded even more deeply in the Middle East. In particular, Britain had quickly come to depend on the Abadan refinery site in Persia, and when Turkey came into the war in 1915 as a partner with Germany, British soldiers defended it from Turkish invasion. </p>
<p>When the Allies expanded to include the U.S. in 1917, petroleum was a weapon on everyone’s mind. The <a href="http://americanarchivist.org/doi/pdf/10.17723/aarc.7.4.n075h48gx5005q72?code=same-site">Inter-Allied Petroleum Conference</a> was created to pool, coordinate and control all oil supplies and tanker travel. The U.S. entry into the war made this organization necessary because it had been supplying such a large portion of the Allied effort thus far. Indeed, as the producer of nearly <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=9BfqsLQDXnMC&pg=PA131&lpg=PA131&dq=President+Woodrow+Wilson+appointed+the+nation%E2%80%99s+first+energy+czar&source=bl&ots=pJvqoe1CXM&sig=IifxDWNZu-ITZJqBDYSSs_OWlpI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiByq2bmobTAhWc14MKHeQrDtQQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=nation%E2%80%99s%20first%20energy%20czar&f=false">70 percent of the world’s oil supply</a>, the U.S.’ greatest weapon in the fighting of World War I may have been crude. President Woodrow Wilson appointed the nation’s first energy czar, whose responsibility was to work in close quarters with leaders of the American companies. </p>
<h2>Infrastructure as a path to national power</h2>
<p>When the young Eisenhower set out on his trek after the war, he deemed the party’s progress over the first two days “not too good” and as slow “as even the slowest troop train.” The roads they traveled across the U.S., Ike described as “average to nonexistent.” He <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=WiUTwBTux2oC&pg=PA190&lpg=PA190&dq=we+could+do+three+or+four&source=bl&ots=_2EWq69--U&sig=VpYppLpNANQ1PYU98KBYD9BVES8&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjz7a_hmobTAhVO1WMKHXSsDJIQ6AEIGjAA#v=snippet&q=the%20heavy%20trucks%20broke%20through%20the%20surface&f=false">continued</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“In some places, the heavy trucks broke through the surface of the road and we had to tow them out one by one, with the caterpillar tractor. Some days when we had counted on sixty or seventy or a hundred miles, we could do three or four.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Eisenhower’s party completed its frontier trek and arrived in San Francisco, California on Sept. 6, 1919. Of course, the clearest implication that grew from Eisenhower’s trek was the need for roads. Unstated, however, was the symbolic suggestion that matters of transportation and of petroleum now demanded the involvement of the U.S. military, as it did in many industrialized nations. </p>
<p>The emphasis on roads and, later, particularly on Ike’s interstate system was transformative for the U.S.; however, Eisenhower was overlooking the fundamental shift in which he participated. The imperative was clear: Whether through road-building initiatives or through international diplomacy, the use of petroleum by his nation and others was now a reliance that carried with it implications for national stability and security. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163713/original/image-20170403-21972-os4ean.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163713/original/image-20170403-21972-os4ean.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/163713/original/image-20170403-21972-os4ean.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163713/original/image-20170403-21972-os4ean.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163713/original/image-20170403-21972-os4ean.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163713/original/image-20170403-21972-os4ean.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163713/original/image-20170403-21972-os4ean.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/163713/original/image-20170403-21972-os4ean.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eisenhower served in the Tank Corps until 1922.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://prologue.blogs.archives.gov/2013/02/25/eisenhower-and-tank-drivers-ed/">Eisenhower Presidential Library, ARC 876971</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Seen through this lens of history, petroleum’s road to essentialness in human life begins neither in its ability to propel the Model T nor to give form to the burping plastic Tupperware bowl. The imperative to maintain petroleum supplies begins with its necessity for each nation’s defense. Although petroleum use eventually made consumers’ lives simpler in numerous ways, its use by the military fell into a different category entirely. If the supply was insufficient, the nation’s most basic protections would be compromised. </p>
<p>After World War I in 1919, Eisenhower and his team thought they were determining only the need for roadways – “The old convoy,” he explained, “had started me thinking about good, two lane highways.” </p>
<p>At the same time, though, they were declaring a political commitment by the U.S. And thanks to its immense domestic reserves, the U.S. was late coming to this realization. Yet after the “war to end all wars,” it was a commitment already being acted upon by other nations, notably Germany and Britain, each of whom lacked essential supplies of crude.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74585/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian C. Black does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Before World War I, petroleum had few practical uses, but it emerged from the war as a strategic global asset necessary for national stability and security.Brian C. Black, Distinguished Professor of History and Environmental Studies, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.