tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/ellen-johnson-sirleaf-30409/articlesEllen Johnson Sirleaf – The Conversation2019-06-14T12:41:34Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1168772019-06-14T12:41:34Z2019-06-14T12:41:34ZHow an aid gusher helped and hurt Liberia<p>Two violent <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13729504">civil wars in Liberia killed a quarter million</a> people between 1989 and 2003 and destroyed the West African country’s economy. A massive influx of foreign aid followed that turmoil, ushering in a period of relative peace and stability. Yet Liberia remains among the <a href="https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/the-poorest-countries-in-the-world">world’s poorest countries</a>. </p>
<p>In 2017, one <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/world/africa/george-weah-liberia-election.html">democratically elected president</a> stepped down and another took office for the first time in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13732188">over 70 years</a>. At the same time, Liberian foreign aid subsided. According to the World Bank’s database, total aid fell from an all-time high in <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.ODA.ODAT.PC.ZS?end=2017&locations=LR&most_recent_value_desc=false&start=1960&view=chart">2010 of US$359 per capita</a> to about $130 in 2013, although aid flows did rebound briefly to <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.ODA.ODAT.PC.ZS?end=2017&locations=LR&most_recent_value_desc=false&start=1960&view=chart">$243</a> per capita during the country’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006580">2014-2015 Ebola crisis</a>.</p>
<p>Having lost so much foreign support, Liberia’s economy is struggling. Reportedly accompanying these economic woes are <a href="https://frontpageafricaonline.com/news/liberian-diaspora-leaders-concerned-about-state-of-civility-in-liberia/">an uptick in violence</a> and <a href="https://www.kget.com/news/world-news/thousands-descend-on-liberias-capital-to-protest-president/">political unrest</a> that’s now hard to ignore. Thousands of demonstrators joined together to protest how the government is handling the economy in June 2019.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cla.purdue.edu/ppp/about/team.html">We belong to a team of researchers</a> that includes one Liberian, several Americans and people from India, Nigeria and other countries. Our team has been working to reduce political violence <a href="https://cla.purdue.edu/ppp/projects/liberia.html">in Liberian communities</a> by partnering with local leaders, concerned citizens and police forces for more than five years. </p>
<p>Because we know economic and political tensions often rise as foreign aid agencies withdraw, we are deeply concerned about the long-term prospects for Liberia’s new-found stability. We also believe the situation in Liberia may serve as an example of how foreign aid that can seem to be healing a war-torn country’s wounds may do little to strengthen those nations in the long term.</p>
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<h2>A short-lived patch</h2>
<p>Overseas development assistance, the most common kind of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/foreign-aid">non-military foreign aid</a>, is a mix of money, food and other supplies, plus services that goes to countries that are low-income, enduring a crisis or both. In Liberia’s case, it has included everything from <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/unmil">UN peacekeepers</a> to nurses caring <a href="https://www.mcsprogram.org/">for pregnant women and newborns</a>. This assistance was intended to end armed conflicts and human rights violations while reducing poverty rates and fighting illnesses like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-018-2506-z">malaria</a> and <a href="https://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/ebola-6-months/liberia/en/">Ebola</a>. </p>
<p>The civil wars slashed the size of <a href="http://www.lr.undp.org/content/liberia/en/home/countryinfo.html">Liberia’s economy by 90%</a>, causing its gross domestic product, or GDP, to decline to only $54.50 per capita by 1995. In large part due to the foreign aid influx, its gross domestic product ballooned from $748 million in 2003 to <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/liberia">$3.3 billion in 2017</a>, with <a href="http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=SNAAMA&f=grID%3A101%3BcurrID%3AUSD%3BpcFlag%3A1">per-capita GDP of about $600</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/liberia/liberia-needs-both-african-and-international-partners-build-lasting-peace">Relying heavily on foreign cash</a> established a false sense of stability and growth in the economy, as infusions of foreign cash were temporary. The lasting impacts of Liberia’s aid flows are coming into focus now that much of the world has moved on.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-liberia-peacekeepers/u-n-closes-up-liberia-peacekeeping-mission-after-15-years-idUSKBN1GY2FX">United Nations Mission to Liberia</a> has pulled out altogether. Other major organizations and countries have reduced their funding too, including <a href="https://openaid.se/aid/sweden/liberia/2018/">Sweden</a>, a leading donor to Africa.</p>
<p><a href="https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/LBR?measure=Obligations&fiscal_year=2019%22%22">Aid from the U.S.</a>, whose leaders helped <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1830-1860/liberia">found Liberia in the 19th century</a> as a destination for <a href="https://nyupress.org/9781479823178/">freed African Americans</a> who either moved there by force or free will, fell sharply as well. It dropped from $228 million in 2011, when assistance began to dry up, to $86 million in 2018.</p>
<p>There were two apparent aftershocks: inflation surged and growth faltered. </p>
<p>After hovering <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?locations=LR">around 8%</a> in recent years, Liberian inflation reached an all-time high of <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/liberia/overview">28.5% in 2018</a>. Following years of <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=LR&name_desc=false">growth rates</a> ranging between 5% and 10% per year, the economy contracted in 2016 and growth remained low for the next two years.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/06/11/pr-19208-imf-executive-board-concludes-2019-article-iv-consultation-with-liberia">International Monetary Fund</a> projects a meager 0.4% uptick in 2019 that will not keep up with population growth. Many Liberian civil servants have told us that their pay is being cut or their paychecks delayed, prompting struggles to pay rent and school fees for their children.</p>
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<h2>Too much aid?</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2008.00568.x">International economists</a> have tried and failed to prove that getting <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/10/does-foreign-aid-boost-growth/">more aid makes economies healthier</a>, even when a boost in aid coincides with faster growth. In this case, rather than strengthen the economy in the long term and make Liberia more able to fend for itself, international assistance may have merely <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/30/liberia-un-mission-helped-restore-confidence-rule-law/">propped it up</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dac/financing-sustainable-development/development-finance-data/Africa-Development-Aid-at-a-Glance-2019.pdf">$776 million in aid per year</a> Liberia obtained between 2010 and 2017 accounted for anywhere from <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=LR">40% to 25%</a> of its GDP during that same period. </p>
<p>Given how the economy has shrunk since aid declined, international assistance would likely be better equipped to succeed in the long run if it emphasized building the skills of local people to make them better at running their own country and <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/liberia/liberia-needs-both-african-and-international-partners-build-lasting-peace">building their own economy</a> how they deem best rather than depending on outsiders to get things done. As the Chinese proverb says, “Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.”</p>
<h2>Real gains</h2>
<p>Even so, it is hard to see a country in crisis and do nothing.</p>
<p>According to the United Nations’ <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/data">Human Development Index</a>, Liberia ranks No. 181, among the world’s lowest. In 2007, for instance, foreign aid paid for more than three-quarters of the cost of Liberia’s health care. Without it, many more people, especially children, would have suffered malnutrition and died, according to an <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/news/embracing-challenge-good-data-collection-post-conflict-liberia">interagency international health report</a>.</p>
<p>Spending also brought about many other significant benefits. For example, the share of <a href="http://www.aho.afro.who.int/profiles_information/index.php/Liberia:Analytical_summary_-_Health_Status_and_Trends">children dying before their fifth birthday</a> fell by half, from 220 per 1,000 live births in 1986, to 110 in 2007. Liberian <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=LR">life expectancy gained a decade</a> after the war ended in 2003, rising from about 53 to 63 years and is much closer to the global average than it used to be.</p>
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<p>It’s easy to see how when foreign aid <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-un-had-to-go-but-is-liberia-really-prepared-for-peace-62453">provides most of a country’s health care</a>, withdrawing it can leave that health system in tatters.</p>
<p>And it is still too soon to tell what the future holds for Liberia – a return to war or just a long, rocky path toward economic and political stability. While we hope for the latter, the economic woes following a steep decline in foreign aid make us fear for the worst.</p>
<p><em>This article has been corrected to say that Swedish aid to Liberia has declined.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116877/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stacey L. Connaughton previously received funding from philanthropist Milt Lauenstein to build and direct the Purdue Peace Project, a political violence prevention initiative based at Purdue University. She serves as an independent consultant for Social Impact, a global management consulting firm, on a USAID-funded leadership development program serving young professionals in Liberia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Eise does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Depending on foreign aid to pay the bills makes moving on when it’s gone harder.Jessica Eise, Ross Fellow in the Brian Lamb School of Communication Doctoral Program, Purdue UniversityStacey L. Connaughton, Associate Professor, Director of the Purdue Peace Project, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/916002018-02-21T07:05:47Z2018-02-21T07:05:47ZAfrica waves some leaders goodbye: but is the democratic deficit any narrower?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205965/original/file-20180212-58312-1numn6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Jose Eduardo dos Santos has stepped down as president of Angola but the country's political system hasn't been overhauled.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Manuel de Almeida</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At a time when Africa has seen a few long-standing leaders exit, the issue of change in power is occupying minds of citizens as well as those in leadership positions. </p>
<p>In spite of their varied repertoire of tactics to remain in power, no one is immune to the wave of change in leadership that has led many African presidents to lose their coveted top job. </p>
<p>Whether through elections, succession battles, coups or end of terms in office it has become a question of when and how they will exit. That’s if one is not too concerned with what comes afterwards. Though it is too early to tell whether meaningful changes can be expected, cases such as Zimbabwe suggest that its citizens can envisage more of the same.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, a review of developments in 2017 shows that it was a fruitful year for those advocating change. Examples include the Gambia where Adama Barrow came in as a promising new leader. Angola’s Joao Manuel Lourenço rose to power and immediately replaced some top public servants, raising hopes that he might champion good governance, although there hasn’t been an overhaul of the system. </p>
<p>In any case, the arrival of a ‘new’ leader in power always brings optimism for change and constitutes an opportunity for new beginnings.</p>
<h2>The big changes of 2017</h2>
<p>In the Gambia Yahya Abdul-Aziz Jammeh decided to hang onto power <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38289219">following his electoral defeat to Adama Barrow</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205991/original/file-20180212-58335-5lsuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205991/original/file-20180212-58335-5lsuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205991/original/file-20180212-58335-5lsuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205991/original/file-20180212-58335-5lsuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205991/original/file-20180212-58335-5lsuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205991/original/file-20180212-58335-5lsuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205991/original/file-20180212-58335-5lsuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Gambian President Adama Barrow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Benoit Tessier</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>A nuisance to his Senegalese neighbour and an embarrassment to his peers in the subregional body, he was eventually pushed out by the Economic Community of West African States, <a href="http://dailypost.ng/2018/01/19/gambia-ecowas-used-force-yahya-jammeh-buhari/">ending his 22-year rule</a>. He has since been in exile in Equatorial Guinea. </p>
<p>After nearly four decades in power Angola’s Jose Eduardo Dos Santos did not seek reelection. But his ruling Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) retained power after winning the August presidential election. <a href="https://theconversation.com/mugabe-and-dos-santos-africas-old-men-seem-finally-to-be-fading-away-87689">Dos Santos was succeeded by Joao Manuel Goncalves Lourenço, his former Minister of Defense</a>.</p>
<p>Zimbabwe provided the finale to an eventful year when, in a battle for succession, Robert Mugabe was forced out by a faction of his ZANU-PF with the help the Zimbabwean Defense Forces. Emmerson Mnangagwa, his long-time ally, and vice-president, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-crisis-in-zimbabwe-shows-the-inconsistency-of-african-intergovernmental-organisations-87891">took over the country</a>. Mnangagwa has <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/24/zimbabwe-hold-free-fair-elections-july-mnangagwa-announces-davos/">announced that elections this year will be ‘free and fair’</a>. He is expected to retain power and his ZANU-PF to keep control of the national assembly.</p>
<h2>Different fortunes</h2>
<p>Rwanda, Kenya and Liberia all presented tales of different presidential fortunes. </p>
<p>After the December 2015 constitutional amendment allowing Paul Kagame to run for a third term and potentially <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/01/rwanda-paul-kagame-third-term-office-constitutional-changes">remain in power until 2034</a>, he was, without a surprise, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/05/paul-kagame-secures-third-term-in-rwanda-presidential-election">reelected in august 2017 with almost 99 % of the votes</a>. Kagame, touted by many as the providential leader who has stabilised and redressed a country emerging from genocide, is also criticised for muzzling <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2015/rwanda">all forms of opposition and restricting civil liberties</a>. </p>
<p>In Kenya, Chris Msando, head of information, communication and technology for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/kenya-election-official-torture-murdered-chris-msando-nairobi-general-election-vote-a7871146.html">was tortured and murdered a week before the presidential election</a>. Following the august 8th polls, the opposition coalition known as NASA and led by Raila Ondinga, <a href="https://qz.com/1051226/elections-in-kenya-2017-raila-odinga-and-nasa-say-he-should-be-president-not-uhuru-kenyatta/">contested the reelection of incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta</a>. Despite international observers (including the African Union) finding no major issues with the polls, the Kenyan Supreme Court annulled the results and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/20/kenyan-election-rerun-not-transparent-supreme-court">called for a new election in October</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205994/original/file-20180212-58344-othrrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205994/original/file-20180212-58344-othrrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205994/original/file-20180212-58344-othrrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205994/original/file-20180212-58344-othrrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205994/original/file-20180212-58344-othrrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205994/original/file-20180212-58344-othrrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205994/original/file-20180212-58344-othrrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Tiksa Negeri</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Uhuru Kenyatta was eventually <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41807317">reelected president in October</a>, after NASA’s refusal to take part in the election without addressing the <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2017/10/14/odinga-refuses-to-sign-kenya-election-withdrawal-form-insists-he-wont-re-run/">key issues raised about the electoral commission</a>. </p>
<p>Kenya has since sunk into a political and institutional crisis, aggravated by the <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/kenya-tv-networks-gagged-odinga-inauguration-180130081747894.html">recent inauguration of Odinga as the ‘peoples president’</a>.</p>
<p>Africa’s presidential electoral year ended in Liberia, on 28 December, with the passing of the baton between <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/world/africa/george-weah-liberia-election.html">the ruling-party’s candidate Joseph Nyumah Bokai and Georges Oppong Weah</a>. The former soccer star turned politician and senator, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42507405">won in the second round with more than 60% of the votes</a> taking over from Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s 12 year rule. He will have to redress the resource-rich but yet poor nation, in the wake of a debilitating Ebola outbreak. </p>
<h2>Lessons to take into 2018</h2>
<p>In the three emblematic cases of ‘handover’ – Angola, Zimbabwe and The Gambia – it’s difficult to say whether the democratic deficit is less serious today. But if ZANU-PF and the MPLA don’t renew themselves, systems that don’t have a stellar record in the rule of law and good governance departments could easily be perpetuated. </p>
<p>Gambians, for their part, can hope that the coming to power of a novice in politics will bring them a better life.</p>
<p>Ensuring democratic and good governance, free and fair elections, and peaceful transitions to power are no longer optional. </p>
<p>Stability in several countries will indubitably be jeopardised in 2018 if some governments do not deliver free and fair elections. Similarly, undertaking constitutional changes that contradict the rule of law, the separation of powers and don’t uphold political agreements, will further entrench instability. From this point of view, Africa’s regional organisations will have to manage the post-electoral crises from previous years – including Kenya – and try and prevent those on the horizon this year.</p>
<p>The African Union must, more than ever, have all its member states sing to the tune of democracy. This can be facilitated by a reform of the organisation. But this, in turn, hinges on the political will of those who will have to endorse the necessary changes. Unfortunately, they remain, for the moment, the guardians of the old order.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91600/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohamed M Diatta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>No one is immune to change in leadership that has led many African presidents to lose their coveted top job.Mohamed M Diatta, Ph.D. Candidate & Lecturer in Political Science-International Relations, Sciences Po Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/904672018-01-22T14:18:17Z2018-01-22T14:18:17ZThe goals that must guide ex-soccer player Weah in leading Liberia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202793/original/file-20180122-110084-o6vql9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">George Weah has his work cut out for him in Liberia. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Luc Gnago</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Liberia’s 25th president, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/boakai-concedes-defeat-george-weah-liberia-vote-171229122812783.html">George Weah</a>, has a tough task ahead of him. The former footballer turned politician must try to revive a resilient yet deeply divided, poorly managed country that’s still feeling the aftermath of a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13729504">protracted armed conflict</a>.</p>
<p>Weah is stepping into the office most recently occupied by Africa’s <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/08/liberia-sirleaf-standing-women-170827092802275.html">first elected woman head of state</a>, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. He will inherit a number of challenges from her administration. These include high levels <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/liberia/unemployment-rate">of unemployment</a>, <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dsa/pdf/2017/dsacr17348.pdf">domestic debt</a> and a <a href="https://www.liberianobserver.com/opinion/editorials/how-realistic-are-governments-excuses-for-the-decline-of-the-liberian-dollar/">depreciated</a> currency. Donor aid fatigue is high. Growth projections <a href="http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/country-notes/liberia">are low</a>. <a href="http://www.frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/news/6430-global-witness-liberian-gov-t-secretly-tax-waiver-threatens-forestry-sector">Corruption reigns</a> in the West African nation, and <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/LBR">human development</a> is waning.</p>
<p>Weah <a href="http://dailypost.ng/2017/12/31/liberia-full-text-president-elect-george-weahs-acceptance-speech/">has promised</a> to make “transforming the lives of all Liberians” his “singular mission”. His <a href="http://dailypost.ng/2017/12/31/liberia-full-text-president-elect-george-weahs-acceptance-speech/">vow</a>, in his December acceptance speech, to weed out the “menace of corruption” appears noble. </p>
<p>The problem is that these political platitudes stand in stark contrast to some of his other promises, such as “relax[ing] constraints to private investment” and “protect[ing] business profits”.</p>
<p>Maximising corporate earnings and improving quality of life don’t have to be mutually exclusive. But in Liberia, profit appears to have always trumped people. Many Liberians remain worried that Weah’s administration may not reverse this long historical trend.</p>
<p>However, there are concrete steps he can take to steer the country of 4.5 million people in a different direction. The most important include inclusive growth, job creation and curbing corruption. </p>
<h2>A new economic approach</h2>
<p>Weah will have a laundry list of priorities to tackle, among them judicial and electoral reform. But he must focus on a handful of tangible goals and work on achieving them in six years if he’s to secure a two-term mandate of 12 years. He should proceed as if he is only seeking one term in office, forget about political niceties and institute reforms like the trained striker he once was.</p>
<p>For starters, he must ensure that 25% of government contracts go to successful Liberian-owned enterprises through competitive bidding, in keeping with a local policy that’s intended to empower small and medium-sized enterprises. </p>
<p>The country <a href="https://www.export.gov/article?id=Liberia-Agricultural-Sectors">imports</a> more than 80% of its food – including rice, a staple – so preference should be given to Liberian agribusinesses operating at scale to ensure food security and decrease Liberia’s high import bill. </p>
<p>Weah must also turn his sights on foreign multinationals. Contracts with poor performers must be cancelled. Agreements that may be violating Liberian national laws and international human rights standards in the oil and gas, oil palm, rubber and iron ore industries must be renegotiated.</p>
<p>The revised agreements should generate improvements in tax collection, value-addition, employment and companies’ corporate social responsibility obligations. For instance, renewing the <a href="http://www.leiti.org.lr/uploads/2/1/5/6/21569928/act.pdf">Liberia Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative</a> would recommit the government to auditing contracting and resource allocation processes and implementing environmental safeguards.</p>
<p>Weah will have to build an industrial base in Liberia. He can do this by insisting that foreign companies work with his government to establish wood, rubber, palm oil, and steel rod processing plants in regional hubs throughout the country. Extra revenue generated from these activities should be invested in road reconstruction, electricity expansion, water and sanitation services.</p>
<h2>No fear, no favour</h2>
<p>The new president must also look to his own government to make wholesale changes that will benefit the country more broadly.</p>
<p>There is excessive waste in government spending. Weah can slash recurring expenditure such as exorbitant salaries for political appointees, large travel budgets for government ministries and agencies and fuel and phone card allotments. These savings can be used to pay doctors, nurses, teachers and police officers a living wage.</p>
<p>All government ministries must be audited. Appointees to the executive branch should declare their assets for public scrutiny. </p>
<p>Several high profile politicians have been accused of theft in recent years. One of them is Weah’s own political ally and former speaker of the House of Representatives <a href="http://mgafrica.com/article/2016-05-26-liberia-charges-top-politicians-british-mining-firm-in-massive-corruption-case">J Alex Tyler</a>. Weah must not play favourites. He needs to appoint a special prosecutor to arraign the accused, investigate them and, where necessary, freeze their assets until all funds are remitted to government. The convicted must be barred from serving in his administration. </p>
<p>This will send a clear message that the president is truly committed to protecting Liberians from those who egregiously evade the public trust.</p>
<p>Crucially, Weah must also wage peace. The United Nations Mission in Liberia is set to end its security mandate in <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2016/sc12654.doc.htm">March</a>. Weah should select astute ministers of defence and justice to expand the remit of the Armed Forces of Liberia and the Liberia National Police. This will mean sourcing funding to train security personnel regularly and compensate them adequately to avoid defection.</p>
<h2>Far tougher than football</h2>
<p>The task of running Liberia is far removed from the heady glory of football fame. But if Weah can bring his work ethic from the field, and assemble a formidable team comprising both women and men with surplus intelligence and integrity, he may well succeed.</p>
<p>Anything short of this would mean the president risks losing favour quickly with those who elected him to score the most important goal of his life: transforming Liberia.</p>
<p><em>This article was co-authored with Silas Kpanan'Ayoung Siakor, a Liberian environmental and human rights activist.</em></p>
<p><em>This is an edited version of <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/liberian-president-elect-george-weah-180119104352291.html">commentary</a> the authors originally published on Al Jazeera English.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90467/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robtel Neajai Pailey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>He’s used to ruling on the soccer field, but how will George Weah tackle the job of Liberian president?Robtel Neajai Pailey, Research associate, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/866702017-11-12T23:05:27Z2017-11-12T23:05:27ZHow women bring about peace and change in Liberia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194051/original/file-20171109-13337-1f07fr1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Women wearing their WIPNET T-shirts plan a peace jamboree the day before the Liberian election in October 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Carter Center)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was the first woman to lead an African country. Her two terms in office ended <a href="https://www.frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/op-ed/5987-liberia-pres-sirleaf-legacy-and-new-president-s-challenge">with elections last month</a> since, like the United States, presidents in Liberia are barred from serving more than two terms.</p>
<p>Affectionately known as “Ma Ellen,” Sirleaf took office at the end of a 14-year civil war in which an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/aug/04/westafrica.qanda">estimated 200,000 Liberians were killed.</a> </p>
<p>Sickened and fatigued by war, thousands of Liberian women, <a href="https://tavaana.org/en/content/how-women-liberia-fought-peace-and-won">through mass action,</a> brought about an end to the conflict in 2003. </p>
<p>These same women took great risks to elect Sirleaf on her promise to sustain peace and make gender equality central to her administration’s agenda. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/05/world/africa/liberia-president-ellen-johnson-sirleaf-women-voters.html">Some women</a> hid their sons’ voter ID cards to prevent them from voting for Sirleaf’s opponent; others tricked the young men into exchanging their cards for beer; still others managed market stalls while their female owners went to register to vote and watched babies so that mothers could vote on Election Day.</p>
<p>These women, many of whom belong to the Women in Peace Building Network (WIPNET), are identifiable by their white T-shirts with blue WIPNET insignia. They are a powerful, widely respected group for what they have accomplished and continue to fight for.</p>
<p>When Sirleaf came to power in 2005, the world was electrified. On Inauguration Day in January 2006, proud Liberians, world leaders and dignitaries watched as <a href="https://www.democracynow.org/2006/1/17/ellen_johnson_sirleaf_sworn_in_as">she took the oath of office.</a> </p>
<p>Sirleaf singled out the women in the peace movement, thanking them for their courage, and committed to supporting their agenda. The Sirleaf administration kept some of its promises but with notable challenges. Liberia has tough rape laws, <a href="http://www.friendsofunfpa.org/netcommunity/page.aspx?pid=288">but weak enforcement mechanisms,</a> and in 2016, Parliament signed into a law a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-liberia-fgm/lack-of-fgm-ban-in-domestic-violence-law-fails-liberias-girls-activists-say-idUSKCN10728F?il=0">new domestic violence bill</a> but removed a ban on female genital mutilation.</p>
<p>At the end of Sirleaf’s two terms in office, peace has held, but the results of progress on gender equality are mixed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193853/original/file-20171108-14209-1l4l28p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193853/original/file-20171108-14209-1l4l28p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193853/original/file-20171108-14209-1l4l28p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193853/original/file-20171108-14209-1l4l28p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193853/original/file-20171108-14209-1l4l28p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193853/original/file-20171108-14209-1l4l28p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/193853/original/file-20171108-14209-1l4l28p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shares a laugh with Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf in Liberia in November 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Women and peace huts</h2>
<p>Today, some of the powerful grassroots women who brought Sirleaf to power are at the forefront of running <a href="http://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2016/3/peace-huts-help-liberian-women-rise-post-ebola">what are known as peace huts.</a> Spread across the country, the purposes of these huts are to put women in charge of mediating domestic abuse and other disputes before they escalate, to empower women through entrepreneurial opportunities and to educate them about their rights. </p>
<p>By and large, Liberian women and girls are well aware of their rights, and especially those enshrined in the <a href="http://www.peacewomen.org/SCR-1325">UN Security Council Resolution 1325.</a></p>
<p>Adopted in 2000, the resolution recognizes that women bear the brunt and horrors of war, and calls for women’s full participation in conflict prevention, resolution and peace-building. Peace huts in Liberia are instrumental in teaching women — including those not formally educated — about these rights.</p>
<p>Peace huts work for gender equality, peace and human rights. But they do much more. <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28755033">The Ebola crisis of 2014</a> led to the deaths of an estimated 11,315 people and strained already fragile health-care systems. Women who ran peace huts in some of the communities stepped in to help the sick and dying, and <a href="http://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2016/3/peace-huts-help-liberian-women-rise-post-ebola">some of them died in the process.</a></p>
<h2>Gains and losses</h2>
<p>There is general agreement among most Liberians that the Sirleaf administration stabilized the country and attracted investment. But there are those who also feel that, notwithstanding a staunch patriarchal culture, women have actually lost ground, especially in politics. </p>
<p>Of the 1,026 approved candidates in the election cycle, only 163 were women, and, in a field of 20 candidates, only one woman, Macdella Cooper, ran for president, <a href="https://www.msafropolitan.com/2017/09/how-ellen-johnson-sirleaffailed-the-african-feminist-agenda.html">and she lost badly.</a></p>
<p>Tackling corruption, infrastructure, youth unemployment and reconciliation by promoting national unity and advancing a peace agenda <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/liberia-elections-key-issues-171007095516742.html">topped ballot issues</a> in the elections. </p>
<p>Noticeably absent was a targeted focus on addressing violence against women and girls. </p>
<p>Yet the UN Women’s Global Database on Violence Against Women report that <a href="http://evaw-global-database.unwomen.org/en/countries/africa/liberia">39 per cent of Liberian women</a> between 15-49 years old experience physical and/or sexual violence at the hands of intimate partners at least once in their lifetime. </p>
<p>Women who run peace huts spend much of their time supporting victims of gender-based violence. Where they are available, women work with the police to arrest the alleged perpetrators. But justice for victims is often hampered by a weak legal system.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, Liberian women <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/09/world/africa/liberia-women-election.html">rightly view themselves</a> as the guardians of a hard-won peace connected to the fight for gender justice. They view peace as foundational to prosperity that can take root only if there is an end to gender-based violence and respect for rights.</p>
<h2>An uncertain but hopeful future</h2>
<p>The elections on Oct. 10 did not yield clear results. The frontrunners, Sen. George Weah and Vice-President Joseph Boaki, were scheduled for a run-off election on Nov. 7. However, the Liberian Supreme Court recently suspended the second round of voting pending an investigation into allegations of <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41885629">“fraud and irregularities.”</a></p>
<p>It is, therefore, too early to tell if gender equality will top the new administration’s agenda, but there’s room for guarded optimism. </p>
<p>Large groups of activist women in Liberia are prepared to continue to fight for equality and are unafraid to do so. Wearing their WIPNET T-shirts, women have come out in force in recent years to press the government to change or implement laws, usually with the support of an engaged public. </p>
<p>The new administration would do well to work with women in the peace huts and in civil society to achieve success. Without a strong voice for gender equality, it’s unlikely that the new Liberian government will realize its political goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86670/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erica Lawson receives funding from Social Science and Humanities Research Council; Social Science and Humanities Review Board, as well as a Graham and Gail Wright Distinguished Scholar Award. </span></em></p>Thousands of Liberian women have banded together to bring about peace and to fight for women’s rights. They’ve changed the face of the African nation.Erica Lawson, Associate Professor of Women's Studies and Feminist Research, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/838922017-09-13T17:00:32Z2017-09-13T17:00:32ZWhy Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf is no feminist icon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185638/original/file-20170912-19504-o2j90o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ellen Johnson Sirleaf's record on women's rights has been mixed.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Liberians go to <a href="http://www.necliberia.org/">the polls</a> in October 2017, there will be a disproportionate number of men on the ballot papers. Only 163 of 1026 approved candidates – just 16% – in these presidential and legislative elections <a href="http://necliberia.org/pg_img/Final%20Candidates%20listing.pdf">are women</a>. This represents only a marginal increase since 2005 and 2011, when women accounted for 14% and 11% of candidates, respectively. </p>
<p>Ellen Johnson Sirleaf – who, 12 years ago, became the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/03/vote-for-woman-how-africa-got-its-first-female-president/518874/">first woman</a> to be elected head of state in any African country – has often <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/05/world/africa/liberia-president-ellen-johnson-sirleaf-women-voters.html?mcubz=0">been hailed</a> as a feminist icon. But the poor representation of women in elections is as much her fault as it is a reflection of Liberia’s acutely <a href="https://www.academia.edu/12656646/Patriarchy_Power_Distance_and_Female_Presidency_in_Liberia">patriarchal political system</a>.</p>
<p>Her presidency has actually served the interests of a small, elite group of women and men in politics. It has upheld the country’s long-standing patriarchal norms. She has publicly distanced herself from the very movement that first got her elected, decrying feminism as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jul/23/can-president-ellen-johnson-sirleaf-save-liberia">extremism</a>”.</p>
<p>Sirleaf’s brand of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43657968">femocracy</a> – a term coined by Nigerian feminist scholar Amina Mama – has severely stifled women’s political participation.</p>
<p>Mama, whose research focused on African first ladies as femocrats, makes an important distinction between feminism and femocracy. She argues that while feminism attempts to shatter the political glass ceiling, femocracy deliberately keeps it intact. This remains true even though, some decades on from her original writing, the continent can now boast of women presidents like Sirleaf and former Malawian head of state <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/04/201247163726657558.html">Joyce Banda</a>.</p>
<h2>Women in Liberian politics</h2>
<p>Sirleaf has been conspicuously silent about bolstering women’s roles in politics, apart from a recent public statement in which she <a href="http://www.emansion.gov.lr/2press.php?news_id=4128&related=7&pg=sp">vowed</a> to campaign actively for female candidates in these elections. </p>
<p>There have been some legislative efforts to involve more women in Liberia’s political leadership, with minimal to no input from Sirleaf. </p>
<p>A 2014 elections law <a href="http://necliberia.org/doc_download/New%20Elections%20law%20Amendments.pdf">amendment</a> encouraged political parties to increase their representation of women in leadership roles. Yet Sirleaf’s own Unity Party– with only 10 women out of 58 candidates on its roster – ranks below smaller, less prominent parties in fronting female candidates this year. The United People’s Party, <a href="http://necliberia.org/pg_img/Final%20Candidates%20listing.pdf">for instance</a>, has 17 women candidates out of a total 64.</p>
<p>Elsewhere on the continent Rwanda, Senegal and South Africa have implemented gender equity bills specifically to propel women to <a href="http://www.ipu.org/wmn-e/classif.htm">high public office</a>. In 2010 the Liberian women’s legislative caucus sponsored an <a href="http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/liberia-proposal-to-increase-womens-participation-in-politics/">act</a> which mandated that women should occupy at least 30% of political party leadership. The act would also have set up a trust fund to finance women’s electoral campaigns.</p>
<p>Sirleaf did not actively support the proposed law and it was never ratified. </p>
<p>She has also failed women when it comes to her own high-level political appointments. Only four of her current 21 cabinet officials are women – and none of them occupy strategic ministries like defence, finance, education or public works.</p>
<p>Nepotism has been a problem on her watch, too: Sirleaf has appointed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2012/nov/01/liberia-johnson-sirleaf-nepotism-corruption">three of her sons</a> to top government positions. </p>
<h2>A few successes, but…</h2>
<p>This is not to say that Sirleaf’s two terms in office have left women completely high and dry. </p>
<p>Her administration has built or renovated hundreds of markets across the country for thousands of female informal traders called “<a href="http://womensenews.org/2009/03/presidents-fund-repays-liberias-market-women/">market women</a>”. </p>
<p>She has also instituted policies to protect women and girls from male aggression. Under her rule, Liberia has implemented the most comprehensive <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/topics/regions/africa.html">anti-rape law in Africa</a>. A fast-track special court has been established to deal specifically with gender based violence.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, a decade after it was opened, the court remains only in the capital city, Monrovia. This makes it inaccessible to most Liberian women.</p>
<p>And the person who heads the court, Serena Garlawolu, has gone on record endorsing <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2016/06/female-genital-mutilation-fgm-160601125718596.html">female genital mutilation</a>. Garlawolu says the practice “is not a violation of anyone’s rights culturally”. Liberian women’s rights activists <a href="http://frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/news/3315-women-group-wants-female-genital-mutilation-act-put-into-law">petitioned</a> to criminalise the harmful procedure. But the proposed ban was omitted from a recently passed Domestic Violence Act.</p>
<h2>Gender equity</h2>
<p>Sirleaf’s record over the past 12 years demonstrates that gender equity is not magically achieved when a woman occupies a country’s highest political office. This is borne out by countless other examples, including Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May in England, Indira Gandhi in India, Dilma Rousseff in Brazil and Julia Gillard in Australia. </p>
<p>The international media and Sirleaf’s supporters continue to hoist her up as the matron of women’s rights in Africa. However, she does not deserve this title. The evidence of this will be glaringly obvious in the October election results. </p>
<p><em>This article was co-authored with Korto Reeves Williams, a Liberian feminist and a strategic civil society leader in Liberia and the sub-region. It is based on <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/08/liberia-sirleaf-standing-women-170827092802275.html">a piece</a> that was originally published by Al Jazeera English.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robtel Neajai Pailey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The international media and her supporters continue to hoist Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf up as the matron of African women’s rights. But she does not deserve this title.Robtel Neajai Pailey, Research associate, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/711732017-01-15T07:25:26Z2017-01-15T07:25:26ZHow The Gambia is testing West Africa’s resolve to protect democracy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152654/original/image-20170113-11207-1f01t1m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Gambia's Yahya Jammeh is under pressure from regional leaders to cede power.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Thierry Gouegnon</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Gambia is an opportunity to reinforce election quality norms for the <a href="http://www.ecowas.int/about-ecowas/basic-information/">Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)</a>. The 15-member regional group was initially set up as a trading bloc. But it has increasingly pursued an agenda of trying to ensure that countries apply principles of democracy, the rule of law and good governance. This motivation has its roots in protecting civilian governments from military coups and preventing civil conflict in West Africa.</p>
<p>In contrast to other African regional organisations, such as the Southern African Development Community <a href="http://www.sadc.int/">(SADC)</a> and the East African Community <a href="http://www.au.int/en/recs/eac">(EAC)</a>, ECOWAS has pioneered norms around election conditions and observation. This has <a href="http://www.internationaldemocracywatch.org/attachments/350_ECOWAS%20Protocol%20on%20Democracy%20and%20Good%20Governance.pdf">included</a> “zero tolerance for power obtained or maintained by unconstitutional means”.</p>
<p>For ECOWAS, constitutionalism has increasingly began to trump national sovereignty.</p>
<p>The events unfolding in The Gambia present a crucial test for the regional body’s commitment to this principle.</p>
<p>On 2 December <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38183906">President Yahya Jammeh conceded defeat</a> shortly before the Independent Electoral Commission announced that opposition leader Adama Barrow had won the election. A week later he <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gambia-election-idUSKBN13Y2QO">withdrew his concession</a>. Even before the elections it had been widely expected that Jammeh would try and rig the outcome. This would not have been out of character for a regime that has consistently suppressed <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2016/country-chapters/gambia#899ef4">political dissent and critical media</a>.</p>
<p>Prior to the December election, ECOWAS challenged Jammeh’s behaviour in power. Based on a pre-election assessment it concluded that the minimal conditions for <a href="http://citizen.co.za/news/news-africa/1361893/ecowas-to-boycott-gambias-presidential-elections/">free and fair elections were not being met</a>. It said it would not be sending <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-15851706">observers</a>, a decision it had also taken ahead of The Gambia’s 2011 presidential election.</p>
<h2>Not the first time</h2>
<p>The Gambian election dispute is not the first that ECOWAS has confronted. Côte d’Ivoire’s 2010 presidential election is a case in point. The country’s electoral commission declared that Alassane Ouattara had <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE6B13FN20101202">won the second round</a>. But, with the power to review the election, the Constitutional Court headed by an ally of the incumbent Laurent Gbagbo cancelled the results in several Ouattara strongholds and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-11913832">handed Gbagbo the election</a>. </p>
<p>ECOWAS, cooperating with the United Nations in Côte d’Ivoire, rejected what it viewed as an obvious manipulation of the result by the court. </p>
<p>It went on to reject any power-sharing arrangements being negotiated. This was despite the fact that the African Union (AU), in particular Gbagbo’s ally Angola, had floated the idea. </p>
<p>ECOWAS’s stance was driven by a number of factors. These included:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The failure of power-sharing agreements in Kenya (2008) and Zimbabwe (2008). ECOWAS feared that a power-sharing arrangement would open the door to similar agreements spreading like a cancer in the region. This would mean that losing candidates and parties would always expect power-sharing agreements. </p></li>
<li><p>Its view that power-sharing puts a country outside normal constitutional procedures, contravening the norms of constitutionalism.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Another factor influencing its decision was Gbagbo’s poor relations with neighbouring countries, including Burkina Faso, Togo, and Nigeria. </p>
<p>As a result ECOWAS sided with Ouattara and, with backing from the UN and France, organised military intervention.</p>
<h2>Gambia presents another test</h2>
<p>There are certainly differences between The Gambia and Côte d’Ivoire. But a similar dynamic appears to be at work. In The Gambia the election commission also declared the opposition the winner. Despite its critical stance before the elections ECOWAS accepted the result because the poll had taken place in line with The Gambia’s constitutional framework.</p>
<p>But, just as Gbagbo had done, Jammeh looked for ways to stall the process. He did this by <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38582180">pursuing an elections dispute</a> resolution at the Supreme Court. The problem was that the Supreme Court did not have the requisite judges to hear a case. In addition, as as in Côte d’Ivoire’s Constitutional Court case, the independence of the court is questionable.</p>
<p>ECOWAS is unlikely to be fooled by Jammeh’s legal acrobatics, just as it wasn’t in Côte d’Ivoire. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152630/original/image-20170113-11175-oykkud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152630/original/image-20170113-11175-oykkud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152630/original/image-20170113-11175-oykkud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152630/original/image-20170113-11175-oykkud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152630/original/image-20170113-11175-oykkud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152630/original/image-20170113-11175-oykkud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152630/original/image-20170113-11175-oykkud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Jammeh welcomes the presidents of Sierra Leone, Nigeria and Ghana for crisis talks in December.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This stands in contrast to comparable tactics working in other regions. One example was Robert Mugabe’s move in Zimbabwe to suppress Morgan Tsvangirai and his supporters before the second round of the 2008 presidential election. Even though SADC observers and states <a href="https://www.eisa.org.za/pdf/zim2008sadc2.pdf">condemned the violence</a>, the regional body did not facilitate a fair solution to prevent wholesale manipulation. </p>
<p>Likewise, the EAC attempted to mediate the political dispute around Burundi’s flawed 2015 election. Yet the selection of Uganda’s <a href="http://mgafrica.com/article/2015-12-16-as-body-count-mounts-mediator-museveni-takes-his-eyes-off-burundi-and-country-inches-closer-to-civil-war">Yoweri Museveni to lead mediation efforts</a> – a man who doesn’t support term limits – showed that the EAC was not serious about political dialogue.</p>
<h2>A different approach</h2>
<p>ECOWAS is likely to behave differently when it comes to The Gambia. It has shown that it believes constitutionalism and the transfer of power is a priority. </p>
<p>Article 9 of the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance states that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The party and/or candidate who loses the election shall concede defeat to the political party and/or candidate finally declared the winner, following the guidelines and within the deadline stipulated by the law.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The seriousness of this commitment was seen in Côte d’Ivoire.</p>
<p>It is further buttressed by a burgeoning coalition of heads of state who were formerly opposition leaders. Nana Akufo-Addo (Ghana), Muhammadu Buhari (Nigeria), Macky Sall (Senegal), Ellen Johnson Sirleaf (Liberia), and Ouattara in Côte d’Ivoire all have significant experience in the political opposition before being elected. The fact that they are the product of a transfer of power makes them more willing to push for a transfer of power in The Gambia to reinforce the regional norm.</p>
<p>This is not the case in the EAC or SADC where countries are still largely beholden to the old guard of ruling political parties and elites. </p>
<p>There are another three crucial factors.</p>
<p>Regional isolation allows ECOWAS to be tough on Jammeh. There is little evidence that he has friends in West Africa. He made himself unpopular by announcing that The Gambia was <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37771592">leaving the ICC</a>. He also alienated neighbours by vetoing the ECOWAS norm of <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-32808685">establishing presidential term limits</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152644/original/image-20170113-11166-orxg02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152644/original/image-20170113-11166-orxg02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152644/original/image-20170113-11166-orxg02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152644/original/image-20170113-11166-orxg02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=913&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152644/original/image-20170113-11166-orxg02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1147&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152644/original/image-20170113-11166-orxg02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1147&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152644/original/image-20170113-11166-orxg02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1147&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Robert Mugabe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Aaron Ufumeli / Pool</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>ECOWAS has also shown it has the ability to gather and assimilate information about political processes, including elections. Although it didn’t deploy an election observation mission in The Gambia, the secretariat is likely to be receiving useful information from an advanced early warning unit. This was designed to monitor conflicts and provide political analysis. </p>
<p>ECOWAS also consistently collaborates with the UN in mediation and intervention efforts. Other regional bodies largely prefer to act independently. ECOWAS regularly consults with the UN Security Council. It did so after the 2010 Côte d’Ivoire election and has done so again over the Gambian election. These consultations are likely to provide additional international support for intervention, which includes mobilising UN assets if necessary. The AU also seems supportive of ECOWAS’ efforts by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/african-union-to-cease-recognizing-jammeh-as-gambias-leader/2017/01/13/375c9198-d9a3-11e6-a0e6-d502d6751bc8_story.html?utm_term=.d3dd6a01a003">refusing to recognise Jammeh</a> as president past 18 January.</p>
<p>Finally, ECOWAS has been willing to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38302533">set time tables with consequences</a>. This was made clear in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/23/forces-on-standby-to-oust-gambian-president-yahya-jammeh">statements from ECOWAS heads of state</a> that Jammeh must step down on 18 January to allow a transfer of power or face possible military intervention. The one major consideration for ECOWAS is how to handle a potential show down with The Gambia’s military if intervention becomes necessary.</p>
<p>Failure to secure a full transfer of power in The Gambia could affect the ECOWAS’s efforts to manage other disputes in the future. And, supporting a power-sharing agreement could bring about a series of destabilising post-election outcomes. This means that Jammeh is likely to leave power – or feel the collective weight of the region.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71173/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Penar is affiliated with Afrobarometer.</span></em></p>The Gambian election dispute is not the first that ECOWAS has confronted. Côte d’Ivoire’s 2010 presidential election is a case in point. There it resorted to military action to enforce the outcome.Peter Penar, Researcher and PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/640652016-08-18T20:42:44Z2016-08-18T20:42:44ZApathy among young people stands in the way of Africa’s demographic dividend<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134620/original/image-20160818-12312-1amfwk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kenyan youth chant in celebration before the arrival of Pope Francis at the Kasarani stadium in Kenya's capital Nairobi.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Thomas Mukoya</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two in three Africans are younger than 35. <a href="http://www.africa-youth.org/">Youth</a> - people between the ages of 15 and 35 - make up more than 35% of Africa’s total population. They have been identified as central to efforts to drive the vast continent’s economic development.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.africa-youth.org/base/wp-content/uploads/resources/African-Youth-Charter_en.pdf">African Youth Charter</a> identifies young people as “partners, assets and a prerequisite for sustainable development and for the peace and prosperity of Africa”. It also outlines their rights and responsibilities, including active citizenship.</p>
<p>Accordingly, the <a href="http://www.au.int/en/newsevents/30351/commemoration-10th-anniversary-african-youth-charter">African Union (AU) has themed 2017</a> the “year of investment in youth to harness the African demographic dividend”. Regional and national <a href="http://www.africa-youth.org/frameworks/decade-plan-of-action/">youth empowerment policies</a> have also been introduced.</p>
<p>Yet a <a href="http://www.afrobarometer.org/press/youth-day-does-less-engaged-mean-less-empowered-political-engagement-lags-among-africas-youth">new survey</a> by Afrobarometer, a non-partisan research network, shows a wide gap between these aspirations and the reality of youth political engagement.</p>
<p>The levels of political engagement and participation in public life are on the decline among young Africans. This trend is worrying. Engagement in the political process is an important avenue for citizen empowerment in democracies worldwide.</p>
<p>Having a voice in economic policies is particularly important for African youth because of the <a href="http://www.ilo.org/addisababa/media-centre/pr/WCMS_413566/lang--en/index.htm">“unemployment crisis”</a> affecting this age group. At 30.5%, North Africa has the highest youth unemployment rate in the world, while 11.6% of young people in <a href="http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_412015.pdf">sub-Saharan Africa</a> are unemployed.</p>
<p>Interest in public affairs has declined substantially, from 81% in 2002/2003 to 58% in 2014/2015, in the 16 African countries tracked during this period. Participation rates also decreased on measures of civic engagement, which provide important avenues for representation between electoral cycles.</p>
<p>
<strong>Figure 1: Trends in civic engagement | 18- to 35-year-olds | 16 countries |2002-2015</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134411/original/image-20160817-3571-bf5qao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134411/original/image-20160817-3571-bf5qao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134411/original/image-20160817-3571-bf5qao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134411/original/image-20160817-3571-bf5qao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134411/original/image-20160817-3571-bf5qao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134411/original/image-20160817-3571-bf5qao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134411/original/image-20160817-3571-bf5qao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Afrobarometer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Respondents were asked:
1. Now I am going to read out a list of groups that people join or attend. For each one, could you tell me whether you are an official leader, an active member, an inactive member, or not a member?
2. Here is a list of actions that people sometimes take as citizens. For each of these, please tell me whether you, personally, have done any of these things during the past year. (% “yes”)</em></p>
<p>The report, which was released on <a href="http://www.un.org/en/events/youthday/">International Youth Day</a>, is based on almost 54,000 interviews in 36 countries in 2014 and 2015. Included in the surveys were Algeria, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Zimbabwe. </p>
<h2>Trends in youth political and civic engagement</h2>
<p>Only slightly more than half (53%) of African youth polled say they are “somewhat” interested in public affairs. Two-thirds (67%) say they discuss these issues “occasionally” or “frequently” with family and friends.</p>
<p>But young citizens report lower rates of political engagement than their elders across a variety of indicators, including voting. These findings are consistent with research on <a href="http://www.idea.int/publications/youth_participation/index.cfm">age differences</a> in political participation in advanced democracies.</p>
<p>As shown in the following infographic, two-thirds (65%) of 18- to 35-year-old respondents who were old enough to vote in their respective countries’ last national election say they did so. That’s compared to 79% of citizens older than 35.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134409/original/image-20160817-3571-e08cma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134409/original/image-20160817-3571-e08cma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134409/original/image-20160817-3571-e08cma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134409/original/image-20160817-3571-e08cma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134409/original/image-20160817-3571-e08cma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134409/original/image-20160817-3571-e08cma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134409/original/image-20160817-3571-e08cma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Afrobarometer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Less than 10% of young people polled said they participated in pre-electoral activities like campaign rallies. The same goes for civic activities such as attending community meetings, joining others to raise an issue, and contacting political or community leaders. A slightly higher number (11%) of those surveyed said they had participated in a demonstration or protest in the preceding year.</p>
<p>Africa is experiencing unprecedented population growth in terms of both scale and speed. The continent’s population is expected to double to <a href="http://www.unicef.org/publications/files/Generation_2030_Africa.pdf">2.4 billion</a> by 2050. This is partly because of significant declines in <a href="http://www.unfpa.org/demographic-dividend">child mortality</a> rates. About 10 million young people enter the labour market each year. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w6268.pdf">East Asian countries</a> were able to capitalise on a large youth cohort – the so-called “demographic dividend” – to fuel an “economic miracle” during the 1990s. </p>
<p>The AU aims to replicate this success by 2063 via supportive policies, including the promotion of youth development and <a href="http://agenda2063.au.int/en/sites/default/files/Final%20Draft%20Agenda%202063%20Framework%20-Formatted%20TOC-1.pdf">empowerment</a>. In May 2016 the organisation held a series of events to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the <a href="http://www.au.int/en/newsevents/30351/commemoration-10th-anniversary-african-youth-charter">African Youth Charter</a> and to draft activities for its 2017 theme. </p>
<h2>Gender differences</h2>
<p>The youth charter requires its signatories to eliminate laws and practices that are discriminatory toward girls and women. The objective here is to ensure equal access to all spheres of society. But, young women consistently report lower levels of political engagement than their male peers. This is particularly so in West African and East African countries. </p>
<p>This finding indicates that there are persisting social barriers to their participation in the political sphere. On average, disparities between young men and women’s engagement levels are largest for measures of “cognitive engagement” (interest and discussion levels) and smallest for voting (Table 1).</p>
<p>Six in 10 male youth say they are “somewhat” or “very” interested in public affairs, compared to less than half (48%) of young women. Similarly, young men are significantly more likely to discuss politics at least “occasionally” than young women (74% vs. 61%). In contrast, the difference between male and female voting rates (66% vs. 64%) is not statistically significant.
These results suggest that many citizens, including many young women, continue to see politics as primarily a space for men. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134635/original/image-20160818-12274-1vver48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134635/original/image-20160818-12274-1vver48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134635/original/image-20160818-12274-1vver48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134635/original/image-20160818-12274-1vver48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=275&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134635/original/image-20160818-12274-1vver48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134635/original/image-20160818-12274-1vver48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/134635/original/image-20160818-12274-1vver48.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=345&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Afrobarometer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Given these trends, greater civic education for all youth – and particularly for young women – may be one strategy for moving toward the AU aspiration of an empowered young citizenry that acts as an agent for prosperity, peace, and development on the continent.</p>
<p>Women’s empowerment is particularly crucial to economic development because Africa’s youth bulge will lead to accelerated economic growth only in countries in which fertility rates are low enough to reduce the proportion of young dependent citizens (children).</p>
<p><a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/22036">Better-educated, healthier and empowered women</a> are more likely to have fewer children and to enter the labour market. Greater female political representation is also likely to lead to more supportive policies for gender equality. </p>
<p>Although there are some notable female political leaders, among them Liberian President <a href="https://global.britannica.com/biography/Ellen-Johnson-Sirleaf">Ellen Johnson Sirleaf</a> and AU Commission chairperson <a href="http://www.au.int/en/cpauc/profile">Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma</a>, women only make up a <a href="http://www.ipu.org/wmn-e/world.htm">minority of parliamentary representatives</a> in sub-Saharan Africa (23%) and in Arab states (18%).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rorisang Lekalake does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The African Union has identified youth as critical for development. But, a new survey reveals a wide gap between these aspirations and the reality of youth public engagement on the continent.Rorisang Lekalake, Research Fellow at the Centre for Social Sciences Research (CSSR)/Afrobarometer Assistant Project Manager for Southern Africa, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.