tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/francois-fillon-33468/articlesFrançois Fillon – The Conversation2022-04-21T18:00:08Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1816492022-04-21T18:00:08Z2022-04-21T18:00:08ZMarine Le Pen, the Rassemblement National and Russia: history of a strategic alliance<p>Days before the second round of the French presidential elections, far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National, RN) spelled out some of her <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX59QEqsVDk">foreign policy priorities</a>: limit military support to Ukraine and steer clear from voting new sanctions against Russia; leave NATO’s integrated command; and relaunch a “strategic rapprochement between NATO and Russia” as soon as peace between Moscow and Kiev can be secured.</p>
<p>Amid the war in Ukraine, Le Pen has had to soften her pro-Russian rhetoric to stay closer to the French public opinion. However, she continues to advance a foreign policy at odds with most French – and European – politics.</p>
<h2>A relationship dating back to Jean-Marie Le Pen</h2>
<p>The reasons for this pro-Russian stance are manifold.</p>
<p>The links of the Rassemblement National (known until 2018 as the Front National, FN) with Russia are long-standing. As early as 1968, Le Pen’s father and president of the party, Jean-Marie Le Pen, welcomed the Soviet Russian nationalist and antisemitic painter Ilya Glazunov, who had come to Paris as part of a Soviet delegation in the hope of painting a portrait of General Charles de Gaulle. After the French president declined the offer, Glazunov ended up <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=1rA0DwAAQBAJ&pg=PT77&lpg=PT77&dq=jean+marie+le+pen+glazounov+1968">drawing a portrait of Le Pen himself</a>. The episode would herald the party’s attempts to present itself as Charles de Gaulle’s natural heir in a bid to connect with Russia.</p>
<p>At an ideological level, the French Catholic, monarchist and collaborationist right has always held the image of the eternal, tsarist and Orthodox Russia close to heart. Personal ties between the Russian emigre community and French far right abound: among the most notable is the marriage of Jean-François Chiappe (1931-2001), who sat at the FN’s central committee and contributed to the far-right magazine <em>Rivarol</em>, to <a href="https://www.whoswho.fr/decede/biographie-marina-grey_2920">Maria Denikina</a>, daughter of the white, anti-Bolshevik figurehead of the civil war, <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2005/10/06/la-depouille-mortelle-du-general-tsariste-anton-denikine-a-ete-inhumee-en-grande-pompe-a-moscou_696343_3214.html">General Anton Denikin</a>.</p>
<p>In the 1980s, the Russian writer and future National-Bolshevik <a href="https://www.lepoint.fr/livres/limonov-l-homme-qui-ne-voulait-pas-mourir-dans-son-lit-25-03-2020-2368764_37.php">Eduard Limonov</a> introduced the eccentric Russian imperialist politician <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/06/vladimir-zhirinovsky-far-right-court-jester-of-russian-politics-dies-at-75-a77240">Vladimir Zhirinovsky</a> to Jean-Marie Le Pen. The two leaders attempted to launch a kind of “international of nationalists,” but their irritable characters and ideological differences would eventually scupper the project.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Jean-Marie Le Pen visits Vladimir Zhirinovsky (AP Archive).</span></figcaption>
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<p>The then unknown but already well-connected fascist philosopher <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2006/06/01/the-philosophy-behind-the-nationalism-a204701">Alexander Dugin</a> interviewed Jean-Marie Le Pen for the leading Russian national-conservative newspaper <em>Den’</em>. Former diplomat and KGB chief Vladimir Kryuchkov (1924-2007), who played a leading role in the <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2016/08/19/the-forgotten-coup-a55030">August 1991 conservative putsch</a> that attempted to overthrow Mikhail Gorbachev, was also mentioned by Jean-Marie Le Pen as one of the <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=1rA0DwAAQBAJ&pg=PT77&lpg=PT77&dq=jean+marie+le+pen+glazounov+1968">instigators</a> of these first post-Soviet contacts with the French far right.</p>
<p>Jean-Marie Le Pen (along with his then right-hand man <a href="https://rassemblementnational.fr/author/bruno-gollnisch/">Bruno Gollnisch</a>) visited Russia several times, at least once in 1996 and again in 2003, while figures of the Russian nationalist right such as Sergey Baburin have <a href="https://www.nouvelobs.com/rue89/rue89-idees-land/20120103.RUE6821/pourquoi-le-front-national-est-fascine-par-la-russie.html">attended FN meetings</a>.</p>
<h2>Marine Le Pen’s Russian coming-out</h2>
<p>Once Marine Le Pen took over the reins of the FN in 2011, her family’s private ties to Russia became official party policy, in particular serving as a guiding principle in the area of foreign policy.</p>
<p>A good number of the people then surrounding her such as <a href="http://www.slate.fr/story/162369/fn-extreme-droite-francaise-guerre-ukraine-russie-lobby">Emmanuel Leroy</a>, <a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/presidentielle/jeunesse-au-gud-accusations-d-antisemitisme-combines-financieres-frederic-chatillon-un-fidele-toujours-dans-l-ombre-de-marine-le-pen_2109402.html">Frédéric Châtillon</a>, <a href="https://www.streetpress.com/sujet/1478533707-schaffhauser-agent-russe-de-marine-le-pen">Jean-Luc Schaffhauser</a>, or even her former international adviser, <a href="https://www.ouest-france.fr/europe/russie/vladimir-poutine/la-fille-du-porte-parole-de-poutine-stagiaire-de-l-eurodepute-francais-aymeric-chauprade-6237778">Aymeric Chauprade</a>, boasted close links with Russia.</p>
<p>The attraction between the FN/RN and Russia is mutual and based on shared values. Key to understanding them is the concept of sovereignty, which includes several aspects:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>political and geopolitical sovereignty: the nation state must be above international legislation and supranational organisations.</p></li>
<li><p>economic sovereignty: economic protectionism is a legitimate tool against the destabilising, corporate-led phenomenon of globalisation.</p></li>
<li><p>cultural sovereignty: the nation is perceived as a homogeneous, ethnocultural entity where minorities or immigrants are accepted only if they agree to assimilate.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Opportunistic motives</h2>
<p>The alliance isn’t just driven by shared ideology. When Marine Le Pen became head of the FN, she sought international recognition in a bid to strengthen her presidential credentials. This included working to secure a meeting with Vladimir Putin, which took place in <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/24/marine-le-pen-recue-par-vladimir-poutine-a-moscou_5100247_4854003.html">March 2017</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Marine Le Pen: “One can’t treat Vladimir Putin with contempt” (INA Politique).</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>She largely owes her rise to Russia’s highest circles to her family’s ties with the Orthodox and monarchist oligarch <a href="https://www.rtbf.be/article/konstantin-malofeev-l-oligarque-de-dieu-proche-de-vladimir-poutine-et-de-la-famille-le-pen-10971433">Konstantin Malofeev</a>, introduced to the Le Pens by Glazunov. Malofeev’s TV channel Tsargrad regularly portrays Marine Le Pen in a glowing light.</p>
<p>The FN was also in need of financial support, and here again, Russia played a central role. For her 2017 presidential bid, Marine Le Pen obtained a loan of <a href="https://www.france24.com/fr/20170502-neuf-millions-euros-prix-fn-soutenir-diplomatie-poutine-ukraine-mediapart-schaffhauser-russ">9 million euros</a> from a bank with close ties to Vladimir Putin. An investigation by the French investigative-news website Mediapart also revealed that in 2014 Jean-Marie Le Pen <a href="https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/france/291114/la-russie-au-secours-du-fn-deux-millions-d-euros-aussi-pour-jean-marie-le-pen">received 2 million euros</a> from a Cyprus-based company controlled by a former KGB agent. While Marine Le Pen claimed that it was a loan, it remains unpaid, and at the time it was perceived as a reward for the FN’s support of Russia’s annexation of Crimea.</p>
<h2>Common interests</h2>
<p>The Kremlin has long had an interest in gaining allies with the potential to act as an echo chamber for its worldview. France is of particular interest because of the country’s relative independence from Washington and its status as a nuclear power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Major French companies are doing business in Russia and therefore inclined to lobby in Moscow’s favour, while France enjoys a rich Russian cultural scene due to the history of Russian emigration.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Is the French far-right candidate too close to Moscow? (France 24).</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When foreign policy under President François Hollande (2012-2017) failed to play out in Russia’s favour, the Kremlin pivoted toward Marine Le Pen. But Moscow is typically more fair-weather friend than loyal ally. It partly deserted her in the 2017 presidential campaign when François Fillon (Les Républicains, LR) emerged as the leading right-wing candidate. For a while, Russian state TV presented him as a figure capable of rallying conservative religious and economic circles before <a href="https://www.letemps.ch/monde/entre-pen-fillon-kremlin-balance">swinging back in the direction of the RN</a>.</p>
<p>Since then, Marine Le Pen has become one of the darlings of <a href="https://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/presidentielle-marine-le-pen-cauchemar-de-la-presse-occidentale-et-espoir-des-medias-russes_2171628.html">Russian television</a>. She is painted as a leading European politician, an authentic patriot, Gaullism’s natural heir, and the standard-bearer of the idea of a Europe of nations and of “traditional” values.</p>
<p>A victory by Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s presidential election would obviously be welcome news for Russia. As the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-how-russian-denial-of-civilian-casualties-follows-tactics-used-in-syria-179583">brutal war in Ukraine drags on</a>, the country’s support in Europe has dwindled to illiberal democracies such as Hungary and Serbia.</p>
<p>Based on <a href="https://graphics.reuters.com/FRANCE-ELECTION/POLLS/zjvqkomzlvx/">polling for the final round of the election</a>, a victory by the Rassemblement National seems unlikely. But even if Le Pen again fails in her bid to win the French presidency, her presence and that of several other political actors sympathetic to Russia on the right and far right – and with some nuance, on the far left – will help ensure that Moscow’s views continue to be reflected in the French political arena.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181649/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marlene Laruelle ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>A victory of the far-right presidential candidate would be good news for Moscow, which has a long-standing history with Le Pen and her party.Marlene Laruelle, Research Professor and Director at the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES), The George Washington University, George Washington UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1750932022-01-18T18:26:05Z2022-01-18T18:26:05ZWill a surprise candidate shake up the French election?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441147/original/file-20220117-17-65np2k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C0%2C4467%2C2993&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/fr/image-photo/mulhouse-france-19-december-2021-torned-2093250544">NeydtStock/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the history of French presidential elections under the Fifth Republic, no candidate has ever managed to gather <a href="https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00238459/">more than 50% of the votes in the first round</a> of voting and accede to power without having to get through a second round.</p>
<p>Until recently, the vote for a new president was perceived as an expected duel between the two favourites usually representing the right and the left (De Gaulle/Mitterrand in 1965, Giscard d’Estaing/Mitterrand in 1974 and 1981, Chirac/Mitterrand in 1988, Chirac/Jospin in 1995, Sarkozy/Royal in 2007, Sarkozy/Hollande in 2012).</p>
<p>After departures from this norm in 1969 and 2002, the consensus was again upturned in 2017 with the victory of centrist Emmanuel Macron over far-right Marine Le Pen, neither of whom represented the two major parties who have held the presidency since 1958.</p>
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À lire aussi :
<a href="https://theconversation.com/macrons-2017-victory-was-supposed-to-usher-in-a-new-politics-instead-france-remains-gripped-by-political-crisis-174089">Macron’s 2017 victory was supposed to usher in a new politics – instead, France remains gripped by political crisis</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/sondages/sondage-presidentielle-2022-lanalyse-de-la-semaine-1379320">According to the current opinion polls</a>, 2022 will be different again: alongside Macron, two frontrunner candidates representing nationalist and extreme right ideas (<a href="https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/le-pen-zemmour-l-avenir-du-camp-nationaliste-en-jeu-20220102">Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour</a>) could potentially receive 30% of the votes; a traditional right-wing candidate (<a href="https://www.franceculture.fr/emissions/journal-de-18h/journal-de-18h00-par-laura-dulieu-du-samedi-04-decembre-2021">Valérie Pécresse</a>) is in a position to reach the second round again; meanwhile, <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2022/article/2022/01/12/election-presidentielle-2022-la-gauche-face-au-mur-de-la-division-pecresse-attaque-le-quasi-candidat-macron-le-recap-politique-du-jour_6109223_6059010.html">the left has never been so divided</a>.</p>
<p>As always in France, there is the possibility of a surprise additional candidate shaking things up at the last minute. Could that happen in 2022? A look back at history can help us understand how things might pan out this year.</p>
<h2>De Gaulle’s new republic</h2>
<p>In 1958, thirteen years after France’s liberation at the end of the Second World War, <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?hl=fr&lr=&id=93hNBQAAQBAJ">Charles de Gaulle returned to the French political stage and to power</a>. He had been a fierce critic of the Fourth Republic, created in 1945, a regime characterised by the dominance of political parties over individual candidates. The conflict in Algeria handed De Gaulle the role of saviour of France once again.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441149/original/file-20220117-13-19sccim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Black and white photograph of Charles de Gaulle delivering a speech" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441149/original/file-20220117-13-19sccim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441149/original/file-20220117-13-19sccim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441149/original/file-20220117-13-19sccim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441149/original/file-20220117-13-19sccim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441149/original/file-20220117-13-19sccim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1206&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441149/original/file-20220117-13-19sccim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1206&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441149/original/file-20220117-13-19sccim.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1206&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Charles de Gaulle delivers his famous speech on constitutional reform in Bayeux, 1946.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The constitution of the Fifth Republic was inspired by his famous <a href="https://www.elysee.fr/la-presidence/le-discours-de-bayeux-194">1946 speech</a> in Bayeux, and was largely written by Michel Debré, one of De Gaulle’s closest aides who would become his first prime minister. Under this new constitution, the president was elected by indirect universal suffrage – that is, via an electoral college, as in the US today.</p>
<p>In 1962, convinced that the president’s legitimacy had to be further strengthened, De Gaulle initiated a successful referendum to introduce a system of <a href="https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/les-revisions-constitutionnelles/loi-n-62-1292-du-6-novembre-1962">direct universal suffrage</a>, where citizens vote for individual candidates.</p>
<p>This act thoroughly changed the political logic of France and its balance of power. Instead of voting for a party, people had to vote directly for a person. Instead of voting for a program, they had to vote for a leader. The French presidential election thus <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/07/la-rencontre-d-un-homme-et-d-un-peuple-histoire-d-un-mythe_5090440_4854003.html">became hailed</a> as an “encounter between a man and the people”.</p>
<h2>The potential of a third candidate</h2>
<p>In 1965, De Gaulle became the first president of the Fifth Republic to be elected by direct universal suffrage. He had to face a second round against <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?hl=fr&lr=&id=9FzCCgAAQBAJ">the left-wing candidate François Mitterrand</a>. De Gaulle won with 55.2% of the votes to Mitterand’s 44.8%.</p>
<p>De Gaulle’s new system also created a space for the emergence of a potential third candidate like <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?hl=fr&lr=&id=coxUEAAAQBAJ">Jean Lecanuet</a> in 1965 or <a href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-commentaire-2007-3-page-721.htm">François Bayrou</a> in 2007. These are usually symbolic, <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/histoirepolitique/1047">“small” candidates</a> who have little chance of becoming president.</p>
<p>But the multiplication of these candidacies can still upset the battle between the two main frontrunners. In 1969, despite having five candidates out of seven in total, the left did not make it to the second round of voting. Instead, <a href="https://www.persee.fr/doc/rfsp_0035-2950_1970_num_20_2_393223">Georges Pompidou</a>, De Gaulle’s former prime minister, won against the centre-right candidate Alain Poher, the leader of the senate who was serving as temporary president following De Gaulle’s resignation.</p>
<p>In 2002, the whole country expected a second round between the right-wing incumbent, Jacques Chirac, and the left-wing Lionel Jospin, Chirac’s prime minister, whom the president was forced to appoint after losing his majority at the Assemblée Nationale in legislative elections.</p>
<p>Early opinion polls introduced a “third man”, <a href="https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/fpcs/22/1/fpcs220105.xml">Jean-Pierre Chevènement</a> a left-wing candidate who had served as a minister under Mitterrand and Jospin. He eventually received 5.33% of the votes in the first round with a modest sixth position.</p>
<p>Despite late opinion polls showing narrow difference between Jospin and Jean-Marie Le Pen, the far-right candidate, many potential left-wing voters decided to cast ballots for minor left-wing candidates or to wait for the second round to take part in the election, assuming the second round would be a run-off between Jospin and Chirac.</p>
<p>But Jospin came in third with 16.18% of the vote while <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/68/4/602/1884181">Le Pen scored 16.86%</a>. Chirac eventually won the second round with <a href="https://www.vie-publique.fr/eclairage/21968-election-presidentielle-2002-resultats-des-deux-tours">82% of the vote</a>.</p>
<h2>Fragile legitimacy</h2>
<p>In 2007 and 2012, presidential elections seemed to be back to normal with second rounds coming down to a contest between Nicolas Sarkozy, the right-wing candidate, and left-wing candidates <a href="https://journals.openedition.org/mots/18763">Ségolène Royal in 2007</a> and <a href="https://books.google.fr/books?hl=fr&lr=&id=_NlNktQGlMQC">François Hollande in 2012</a>.</p>
<p>But the 2017 presidential election marked a turning point. As in 2002, the extreme right candidate, Jean-Marie’s daughter Marine Le Pen, managed to <a href="https://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=SCPO_PERRI_2017_02_0251&download=1">reach the second round</a>. But Le Pen’s presence at this stage of the final presidential race did not produce the national crisis witnessed by her father’s success in 2002, showing how the far-right had become normalised in the intervening years. None of the traditional French political parties reached the second round and <a href="https://www.manchesterhive.com/view/9781526153463/9781526153463.xml">Emmanuel Macron was able to win without their support</a>.</p>
<p>With four candidates (Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, François Fillon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon) receiving between 20% and 24% of the votes in the first round of the 2017 election, the legitimacy that De Gaulle wanted to give to the direct universal suffrage process <a href="https://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=ARCO_FRINA_2021_01_0111&download=1">appeared fragile</a> and has been highly contested since by Macron’s opponents.</p>
<h2>The limits of direct universal suffrage</h2>
<p>What will happen this year? It seems that 2022 might reinforce the trend set up in the last presidential election. With none of the left-wing candidates in a position to compete for the two top spots and the spread of extreme-right ideas among the voters, the traditional right v left opposition seems a distant memory. A candidate defending nationalist far-right ideas could reach the second round for the second time in a row.</p>
<p>On one hand, the 2017 and 2022 elections call into question the system inspired by De Gaulle and the legitimacy of the president in a system where the splintering of traditional parties has led the concept of a “third man” or “third woman” to become obsolete.</p>
<p>On the other, a candidate positioned outside of the main French political parties can be carried to a presidential victory and a majority at the Assemblée Nationale just as Macron did in 2017, which could be seen as the ultimate vindication of the third candidate theory.</p>
<p>If calls for a change of the system of <a href="https://laviedesidees.fr/IMG/pdf/20111004_presidentielle.pdf">direct universal suffrage</a> and for <a href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-pouvoirs-2018-3-page-139.htm">a Sixth Republic</a> regularly bubble up, French people’s aspiration to a more participatory democracy seems to show their limits when it comes to electing their president.</p>
<p>Ultimately, while French people may want to have their say about everything, they also want a leader who decides, takes responsibility and makes decisions. Despite the fluctuations within the political system of recent years, the tradition instigated by De Gaulle back in 1962 remains strong to this day, even if the main players are different.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175093/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olivier Guyottot ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Charles de Gaulle created a system where a surprise candidate can upend the presidential elections in France. Will it happen in 2022?Olivier Guyottot, Enseignant-chercheur en stratégie et en sciences politiques, INSEEC Grande ÉcoleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1084072018-12-08T13:31:04Z2018-12-08T13:31:04ZWhat French populists from the ‘50s can teach us about the 'yellow vests’ roiling Paris today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249513/original/file-20181208-128214-1wwgf0z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Demonstrators march down Paris' Champs-Elysees Dec. 8.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/France-Protests/5ac333a6752c49bdb5790955d8b7f4d6/67/0">AP Photo/Michel Euler</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The populist protests roiling France remind me of a similar anti-tax revolt that occurred in Paris nearly 65 years ago. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/news-photo/demonstration-at-the-porte-de-versailles-directed-by-pierre-news-photo/107409483">January 1955</a>, tens of thousands of French men and women gathered at the Porte de Versailles in Paris to express their disgust for the elites who had burdened their lives with crushing taxes. They had come to hear the populist icon <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38370962">Pierre Poujade</a>, a bookstore owner from the rural Lot valley and the leader of a movement that <a href="https://electionsfrance.wordpress.com/2011/12/15/the-poujadist-movement-in-1956/">tried to topple</a> the government of Pierre Mendès-France. </p>
<p>Today, the French government is <a href="https://theconversation.com/gilets-jaunes-why-the-french-working-poor-are-demanding-emmanuel-macrons-resignation-107742">again facing</a> an <a href="http://time.com/5472304/france-yellow-vests-macron-fragile/">existential threat</a> over an unpopular tax, but this time by the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/fr/topics/gilets-jaunes-62467">gilets jaunes</a>,” or <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/gilets-jaunes-63133">yellow vests</a>. And even though President Emmanuel Macron has since nixed his government’s plan, the demonstrations show no sign of abating.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Y58-EhUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I believe</a> that the Poujadist protests, which I am studying as part of a book project on the political economy of France, can shed light on today’s unrest – as well as on the many other <a href="https://medium.com/@lseideas/understanding-the-global-rise-of-populism-27305a1c5355">populist movements</a> agitating governments across the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249486/original/file-20181207-128220-ec7x0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249486/original/file-20181207-128220-ec7x0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249486/original/file-20181207-128220-ec7x0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249486/original/file-20181207-128220-ec7x0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249486/original/file-20181207-128220-ec7x0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249486/original/file-20181207-128220-ec7x0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249486/original/file-20181207-128220-ec7x0j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some of the protests have turned violent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-France-Gas-Price-Protests/2e4ec01db6e64ff1aab2fb858c95908a/65/0">AP Photo/Kamil Zihnioglu</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘gilets jaunes’</h2>
<p>The “gilets jaunes” movement <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/yellow-vests-protesting-france-181206083636240.html">started in November</a> as a response to a fuel tax hike meant as an environmental measure. </p>
<p>Cars, trucks and tractors play a critical role in the lives of rural and suburban French people, and the insensitivity of the government to this reality sparked the anger of these “non-metropolitan” citizens. They have long felt <a href="https://etd.ohiolink.edu/!etd.send_file?accession=osu1340637898&disposition=inline">marginalized</a> by city-dwelling French elites, who would <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/french-minister-says-fuel-tax-protests-smaller-more-violent">barely be affected</a> by the rising fuel prices.</p>
<p>The yellow vest itself perfectly embodies the resulting sense of grievance. </p>
<p>All French drivers are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-30/why-people-in-yellow-vests-are-blocking-french-roads-quicktake">required to keep</a> a yellow vest in their car for emergencies. Practically speaking, therefore, it is a cheap and readily available garment for supporters of the movement. </p>
<p>More than that, the yellow vest is a <a href="https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/12/french-protests-gilets-jaunes-yellow-vests-paris-gas-tax/577300/">potent symbol</a> because motorists don it to attract attention in an emergency. For many protesters, that is exactly what they are trying to do by marching through the streets.</p>
<h2>Revolt or revolution?</h2>
<p>But the protests have evolved from a pure tax revolt into something broader, combining a <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2018/12/emmanuel-macron-has-succeeded-uniting-france-s-different-groups-against-him">wide range</a> of political views. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/20181128_elabe_bfmtv_les-francais-et-les-gilets-jaunes.pdf">recent poll</a> shows that about 42 percent of the protesters supported the far right candidate <a href="https://theconversation.com/macron-and-lepen-are-battling-for-frances-heart-and-soul-in-election-runoff-76966">Marine Le Pen</a> in the last elections. The survey also shows that 20 percent of them backed the far leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, while many others voted a blank ballot or even supported the conservative François Fillon.</p>
<p>And perhaps because the movement lacks a leader, its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/world/europe/yellow-vests-france.html">demands</a> have included everything from reinstating a wealth tax to increasing welfare protections. <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20181206-french-student-protests-intensify-alongside-yellow-vest-revolt">Students</a> are demanding that the government backtrack on proposed education reforms, while more radical elements want a fundamental transformation in government.</p>
<p>To top it all off, extremists known as “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/01/world/europe/france-yellow-vests-protests-macron.html">les casseurs</a>” – literally “people who break things” – and anarchists have added violence to what were primarily peaceful protests. As a result, <a href="https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/8xpm3a/paris-riots-yellow-vests-macron-fuel-tax">there have been</a> hundreds of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-08/police-arrest-317-in-paris-ahead-of-new-yellow-vests-protests?srnd=premium">arrests</a> and injuries.</p>
<p>Under tremendous pressure, Macron, on Dec. 5, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46460445">backed away</a> from the fuel taxes. But protests continued on Dec. 8, with more <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-08/police-arrest-317-in-paris-ahead-of-new-yellow-vests-protests?srnd=premium">violence reported</a>, and signs that they will continue. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2018/12/06/01016-20181206ARTFIG00352-eric-drouet-ce-leader-des-gilets-jaunes-qui-appelle-au-putsch.php">Loose talk</a> among some extremists of violently overthrowing the government, along with a small but growing current of <a href="https://www.7sur7.be/7s7/fr/1505/Monde/article/detail/3502399/2018/12/07/La-grogne-des-gilets-jaunes-tout-profit-pour-l-extreme-droite.dhtml">anti-Semitism</a>, has done little to calm the situation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249487/original/file-20181207-128190-wjzyz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249487/original/file-20181207-128190-wjzyz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249487/original/file-20181207-128190-wjzyz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249487/original/file-20181207-128190-wjzyz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249487/original/file-20181207-128190-wjzyz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249487/original/file-20181207-128190-wjzyz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249487/original/file-20181207-128190-wjzyz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A demonstrator holds a french flag at the toll gates on a motorway.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/France-Protests/d38913b95d494ee0bf037a343bd4bf4f/15/0">AP Photo/Bob Edme</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The past and the present</h2>
<p>The perception of burdensome taxes as a symptom of unjust elite rule was <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1406514">something shared</a> by Pierre Poujade and his followers in their day. </p>
<p>His protests – like today’s – represented a populist <a href="https://theconversation.com/gilets-jaunes-why-the-french-working-poor-are-demanding-emmanuel-macrons-resignation-107742">rejection</a> of “the system,” which the lower middle classes saw as serving only the elite and leaving them behind. </p>
<p>In the 1950s, <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/387/Transformative_Relationships_-_Journal_Article_-_Hankla.pdf?1544198980">France was just a few years past the suffering</a> caused by the Second World War, the German occupation and the quasi-fascist Vichy regime. In order to rebuild the country, the leaders of the new Fourth Republic adopted a system of economic planning to channel huge amounts of central investment to selected industries. </p>
<p>Many <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/capitalism-and-the-state-in-modern-france-renovation-and-economic-management-in-the-twentieth-century-by-kuisel-richard-f-new-york-cambridge-university-press-1981-pp-xv-344-3750-cloth/3C8BB4F8E60A914484F3617BC1338730">historians believe</a> this helped drive the incredible growth that France experienced through the early 1970s. But it had a downside for millions of small business owners, especially those outside the big cities, who believed that their high taxes were being used to help privileged big businesses <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/42843321">take over</a> the economy.</p>
<h2>Populism today</h2>
<p>The “gilets jaunes” are very much following in the tradition of the anti-elite movements before them, especially the Poujadists.</p>
<p>Today, as then, the French economy is <a href="http://www.oecd.org/economy/france-economic-forecast-summary.htm">doing reasonably
well</a>, with its annual growth rate <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=FR">improving since 2012</a> and currently <a href="http://www.oecd.org/economy/france-economic-forecast-summary.htm">close to 2 percent</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249488/original/file-20181207-128196-10o16a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249488/original/file-20181207-128196-10o16a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249488/original/file-20181207-128196-10o16a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249488/original/file-20181207-128196-10o16a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249488/original/file-20181207-128196-10o16a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=855&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249488/original/file-20181207-128196-10o16a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1074&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249488/original/file-20181207-128196-10o16a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1074&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249488/original/file-20181207-128196-10o16a7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1074&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pierre Poujade led a movement that bears similarities to today’s ‘gilets jaunes.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-International-News-France-File-/2e8b5ca008f2da11af9f0014c2589dfb/1/0">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But, as in the 1950s, the times are not good for everyone. The unemployment rate remains stubbornly <a href="https://data.oecd.org/unemp/unemployment-rates-by-education-level.htm">above 9 percent</a> and is much higher at 15 percent among those without a high school diploma. <a href="http://piketty.blog.lemonde.fr/2017/04/18/inequality-in-france/">Data</a> from the French economist Thomas Piketty shows that income inequality has widened since the 1980s.</p>
<p>More importantly, the rising cost of living makes it difficult for members of the lower middle class to make ends meet. And all the while they see the privileged enjoying a lifestyle that they cannot imagine. </p>
<p>All of this echoes the Poujadists, but the “gilets jaunes” of today are responding to economic challenges that are very different from the ones of the past.</p>
<p>Today, what matters most are the <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300233766/twilight-elites">uneven gains</a> of globalization. Although deeply integrated world markets have benefited many in France, they have left behind workers and small-business owners who lack the skills to profit from them. </p>
<p>And Macron’s policies are seen as <a href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/yellow-vest-protests-macrons-failure-to-address-inequality.html">exacerbating</a> these inequalities and favoring the elites over the lower classes. Besides the fuel tax, his decision to abolish the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/france-could-keep-wealth-tax-in-bid-to-placate-yellow-vests-1544025588">wealth tax</a> and plan to make <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-reforms-education/no-kid-left-behind-macron-tries-to-fix-frances-education-system-idUSKBN1JV0MM">university admissions more selective</a> have added to Macron’s pro-elite image. </p>
<p>So how might it all end? Poujade’s movement, for its part, was able, at its height to win <a href="https://www.economist.com/obituary/2003/09/04/pierre-poujade">52 seats</a> in the French National Assembly. Poujadism did eventually disintegrate, but its longevity shows how it had tapped into something much deeper than a simple aversion to taxes. </p>
<p>This “something deeper,” a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/02/france-is-deeply-fractured-gilets-jeunes-just-a-symptom">suspicion of the system</a>, is shared by the yellow vests and explains why we should not be surprised that Macron’s backtracking on the fuel tax has done little to quiet the protests. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248873/original/file-20181204-34131-500r02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248873/original/file-20181204-34131-500r02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248873/original/file-20181204-34131-500r02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248873/original/file-20181204-34131-500r02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248873/original/file-20181204-34131-500r02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248873/original/file-20181204-34131-500r02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248873/original/file-20181204-34131-500r02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Riot police use a water cannon and tear gas against demonstrators.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/paris-france-1st-december-2018-riot-1246495381?src=j1OCKrFnYEq3RY7foMcsfA-1-7">Alexandros Michailidis/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Populism around the world</h2>
<p>Their rage against out-of-touch elites also links the “gilets jaunes” protests with other recent populist movements in Britain, the United States and elsewhere.</p>
<p>In all these places, populism has emerged as a result of the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/chart-of-the-week-distribution-of-globalization-s-gains">uneven distribution of economic gains</a> that have accrued from globalization. </p>
<p>For example, while most elites <a href="http://fortune.com/2013/09/11/the-rich-got-a-lot-richer-since-the-financial-crisis/">have fully recovered</a> their losses from last decade’s global financial crisis, nearly everyone else has seen their income and wealth little changed. This situation is especially galling for the <a href="http://www.ethicalmarkets.com/global-crisis-rooted-in-systemic-failure-of-the-financial-and-political-elite/">many who blame</a> those very elites for causing the crisis in the first place. </p>
<p>When Macron upended the French political system to become president in 2017, many hoped that he could channel the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/anti-establishment-anger-drives-france-elections/3815593.html">anti-elite anger</a> brewing in France into his new, youthful party. But Macron’s paradoxical “centrist populism” has not delivered the change that many citizens sought, one reason the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20181205-french-back-yellow-vest-protests-despite-govt-u-turn-poll">vast majority</a> of the public supports the protests.</p>
<p>The “gilets jaunes” represent a reckoning. It is a reckoning that will take more than tax policy to avert, and one whose future impact will be difficult to predict. </p>
<p>After all, among the young legislators first elected on Poujade’s ticket was Jean-Marie Le Pen, a man who would go on to create the modern French far-right.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108407/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Hankla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A populist movement that threatened to topple a French government more than 60 years ago has important lessons for today’s protests and why they represent a reckoning.Charles Hankla, Associate Professor of Political Science, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793652017-06-13T16:17:33Z2017-06-13T16:17:33ZAs France’s electoral marathon nears its denouement there could still be surprises<p>When Emmanuel Macron launched his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/16/emmanuel-macron-outsider-bid-french-presidential-race-election">outsider campaign for France’s presidency</a> in November 2016, most observers thought he had little chance of winning – he was “too young” and had support from neither of the major parties. Then he squeaked out a win in the first round and went on to crush the extreme right-winger Marine Le Pen <a href="https://theconversation.com/macron-crushes-le-pen-66-34-in-french-presidential-runoff-76941">nearly two-to-one</a> in the May 7 finale. </p>
<p>Now the candidates put forward by Macron and his party, La République en Marche (LREM) have dominated the first round of the legislative elections, with potential wins in more than <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-macron-marches-to-parliamentary-majority-in-france-79245">400 seats out of a total of 577</a>. </p>
<p>The legislative elections have served to amplify the restructuring that was already taking place during the presidential elections. This featured a collapse of the Socialist Party, a weakening of Les Républicains (LR), and a significant drop for both Le Pen’s Front National (FN) and the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise (France Unbowed). </p>
<h2>A record abstention</h2>
<p>The overall abstention rate in the first round of the legislatives on June 11 was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/12/french-parliamentary-elections-emmanuel-macron-low-turnout">51.3%</a>, a jump of 8.5 points over 2012’s 42.8% – the previous record low. The abstention rate has steadily risen since the 2002 reform that moved the legislative elections to <a href="https://theconversation.com/presidentielle-pourquoi-les-tirs-au-but-devraient-etre-tires-avant-la-prolongation-76299">immediately after the presidential election</a>. The feeling for many voters seems to be that the president should be able to move forward with his proposals – tacit approval without an explicit vote.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/sondage_ipsos_sopra_steria_11_juin_20h_comprendre_le_vote_des_francais.pdf">According to an Ipsos poll</a> on the eve of the first round, 24% of respondees agreed with Macron and wanted him to have a majority in the assembly; another 28%, while they didn’t agree with the new president, also felt that it was preferable for him to have a majority.</p>
<p>This in part explains the high abstention rate in the legislative elections – one that was <a href="http://www.ipsos.fr/decrypter-societe/2017-06-11-1er-tour-legislatives-2017-sociologie-electorats-et-profil-abstentionnistes">most pronounced</a> among far-right and far-left voters. Of those who voted for the FN in the first round of the presidential election, 57% skipped the legislative elections. On the far left, 52% of Mélenchon’s supporters stayed home. The abstention rates were lower for the centre-left and centre-right: 43% of those who had backed Benoît Hamon, the Socialist Party’s candidate, and 38% of supporters of François Fillon, candidate for Les Républicains, stayed home. By comparison, the abstention rate for Macron supporters was only 37%.</p>
<p>Polls also show continuing disapproval of the political class. The emergence of new political forces – mainly LREM and France Insoumise – have not been enough to convince disappointed citizens to come back to the voting booth. The sociological characteristics of non-voters <a href="http://www.ouest-france.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-les-raisons-d-une-abstention-record-5055547">remain the same</a>: 64% of the 18-to-34-year-olds didn’t vote, compared to 35% of those over 60-years-old. Working-class voters remained on the sidelines, with 66% not participating, and abstention rates were high for low-income and less-educated residents as well.</p>
<h2>The president’s side, on the rise</h2>
<p>Candidates aligned with Macron received 32.3% of the votes cast (28.2% for LREM and 4.1% for François Bayrou’s centrist MoDem party), a jump of 8.3 points over the first round of the presidential election. While many LREM candidates are new to politics, the <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/06/12/le-premier-tour-des-legislatives-en-cartes-les-partis-qui-gagnent-les-partis-qui-perdent_5142951_4355770.html">district-level results have been excellent</a>. Not only did Macron’s backers remain mobilised at a higher rate, they picked up 21% of those who had voted for Fillon, 17% of Hamon’s supporters, and 14% of Mélenchon’s. Macron won many more voters than he lost.</p>
<p>Macron’s strategic choices since his election have paid off. He appointed a prime minister from the political right, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/15/emmanuel-macron-names-edouard-philippe-as-french-prime-minister">Edouard Philippe</a> and ministers on the left and right according to their “Macron-compatible” profile. He has already begun announcing his first reforms, and been a confident presence on the international scene. According to the Ipsos poll, <a href="http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/sondage_ipsos_sopra_steria_11_juin_20h_comprendre_le_vote_des_francais.pdf">58% of those surveyed</a> said they were satisfied with Macron’s first actions in office, no small accomplishment.</p>
<h2>Tradition in meltdown</h2>
<p>Things are less rosy for two traditional parties, the centre-left Socialists and centre-right Les Républicains. In the 2012 legislative elections, the Socialists and their allies won 34.4% of the votes – in 2017 they collected only 9.5%. Victims in the first round of the legislative elections included Hamon and Jean‑Christophe Cambadélis, the head of the party itself, both of whom lost seats they had long held. The poor showing is a verdict on François Hollande’s presidency as well as the result of internal divisions between the party’s left wing and centrist right wing.</p>
<p>By comparison, Les Républicains held on better. They and other centre-right parties won 21.6% of the vote, versus 32% in 2012. This is barely better than Fillon’s 20% score in the first round of presidential election. Their high abstention rate in the legislative election is explained by the party’s divisions – between those favouring a hard-right ideological line and a more moderate approach, as well as the split between those who urged “constructive” support of Macron versus those who wanted to be a part of the opposition.</p>
<h2>The decline of the FN and France Insoumise</h2>
<p>While Le Pen obtained 21.3% in the first round of the presidential election, support for the FN’s legislative candidates dropped from 13.6% in 2012 to 13.2% in 2017. This calls into question the party’s longstanding efforts to remake itself and leave behind its sulphurous past. Following the double loss, internal divisions have risen again as well as questions on the party’s platform. In particular, its positions against the euro and the EU probably led many FN supporters to abstain.</p>
<p>Mélenchon won 19.6% of the votes in the first presidential round, but has been on the decline since. The party’s candidates got only 11% of the vote in the legislative elections, which can be explained by its strategy of isolation and rejection of an alliance with the once-powerful Communist Party. Overall, however, compared to the 2012 legislative election, the far-left is on the rise and hopes to dominate the moderate left in the coming years.</p>
<h2>Two possible scenarios</h2>
<p>At the end of this first legislative round, France faces a new political landscape. Instead of four almost equal political forces with between <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2017/apr/23/french-presidential-election-results-2017-latest">24% and 20% of the vote</a>, France now has a single dominant force in the centre, a weakened family on the right, an extreme right that’s stumbling, and a deeply divided left. And half of potential voters are still sitting on the sidelines, seeing how the political situation evolves.</p>
<p>Two scenarios can be anticipated for June 18 – when the second and final round of the legislative elections take place. Because the winner of each constituency will be the candidate with the majority of votes, it’s likely to confirm the results of the first round and give a large majority to Macron. But one can also imagine a decrease in the momentum for the president, with opposition parties gaining more seats than anticipated.</p>
<p>And there could still be some surprises at the end of a very long series of elections that have completely transformed the French political landscape.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Leighton Walter Kille.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pierre Bréchon ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Many French voters seems willing to give the new president and his party, La République en Marche, a broad mandate, even if they didn’t initially support him.Pierre Bréchon, Professeur émérite de science politique, Sciences Po Grenoble, Auteurs historiques The Conversation FranceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/766152017-04-24T14:34:53Z2017-04-24T14:34:53ZFrench election: how the vote came to be so split<p>Four numbers illustrate just how divided France now is: 24, 21, 20, 20. They’re the percentage of votes obtained by the four top finishers (Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon respectively), in the <a href="http://graphics.france24.com/results-first-round-french-presidential-election-2017/">first round of the 2017 French presidential election</a>, held on April 23. Eliminated were the two major political parties that have alternated running the country since the foundation of the Fifth Republic in 1958 – together, the left-wing Socialist Party and right-wing Les Republicains gathered just 26% of the votes cast.</p>
<p>Three of the four top candidates that stand out in this unprecedented contest have never been in power, and the political party of top vote-getter Emmanuel Macron didn’t even exist a year ago. </p>
<p>This new, puzzle-like dispersion of voter support isn’t good news for the governability of the country, as the emergence of a legislative majority in June is anything but certain. In a situation where the balance of power is so close, the future president won’t necessarily find a sufficient number of districts where his or her candidates can prevail.</p>
<h2>Four key criteria</h2>
<p>The first round of the presidential election shows a split of the electorate, and thus France itself, around several key issues. Research at Sciences Po Paris enables us to identify the attitudes and values through which the French have restructured their political identity and via which we see the emergence of new political movements.</p>
<p>In the run-up to the vote, it was often said that the endless cycle of scandals – from François Fillon’s alleged <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/14/francois-fillon-placed-under-formal-investigation-over-fake-jobs">misuse of public funds</a> to Marine Le Pen’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/14/marine-le-pen-french-prosecutors-seek-to-lift-immunity-over-expenses-inquiry">EU “assistants”</a> – masked substantive debate. While the judicial affairs took up a lot of space in the media, voters understood what was at stake and what was important to them.</p>
<p>Here are four key criteria voters were using to judge the candidates. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Economic liberalism. Supporters of the free market (with or without state regulation) against those who advocate an egalitarian interventionism by the government.</p></li>
<li><p>Cultural liberalism. The defence of individual emancipation with mutual respect and tolerance against those who demand the respect of rules and values that are collectively defined and imposed on individuals.</p></li>
<li><p>Euroscepticism (which can go as far as europhobia). It welcomes all those with a nationalist discourse and who criticise the European Union to the point of considering leaving it.</p></li>
<li><p>Ethnocentrism. Those who accept the diverse reality of a globalised world and a multicultural and open society face off against defenders of a national identity and its historical roots – with the implicit willingness to exclude those who are not of the nation – all the while denouncing the supposed misdeeds of cultural globalisation.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The combinations of these four criteria explain the contemporary electoral landscape in France. The following table indicates with a plus sign when a candidate holds a divisive position and with a minus sign when they’re against it. Some candidates are ambiguous about certain positions, or are obliged to deal with a split electorate, as is the case of the FN in the north and the south.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166521/original/file-20170424-12645-6jhfxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/166521/original/file-20170424-12645-6jhfxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166521/original/file-20170424-12645-6jhfxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166521/original/file-20170424-12645-6jhfxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166521/original/file-20170424-12645-6jhfxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166521/original/file-20170424-12645-6jhfxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/166521/original/file-20170424-12645-6jhfxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Where the four main candidates stand</h2>
<p><strong>Emmanuel Macron</strong> is clearly on the side of a certain economic liberalism. Still, he sees the state as being able to intervene when required and also to help victims of international economic competition. He is also on the side of cultural liberalism, and has defended women’s rights, reproductive rights and gay marriage. Moreover, the individual emancipation of everyone is one of his recurring themes, including removing the limitations to entrepreneurial spirit.</p>
<p>He is not a eurosceptic. On the contrary, his defence of anchoring France within the European Union was one of the markers of his campaign. He was one of the few candidates who made EU flags available to his supporters at campaign meetings. Compare this to Marine Le Pen, who demanded that the TV station TF1 remove a blue EU banner from the studio before her appearance. Emmanuel Macron also supports an open society, so much so that Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon accused him of being a supporter of globalism.</p>
<p><strong>Marine Le Pen</strong> and the Front National are directly identified with a rejection of the European Union as it was conceived and currently functions, and Le Pen goes so far as to advocate an exit from the EU and the euro. This position guarantees her a solid electoral base, but also limits her because it displeases many conservative and elderly voters. The defence of ethnocentrism has long been the backbone of the FN’s appeal, and the candidate even returned to these fundamentals when she started to slip in the polls. The work of <a href="http://www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etudes-europeennes/fr/chercheur/nonna-mayer">Nonna Mayer</a> clearly shows that hostility to immigrants and Islam are the leading characteristics of FN support among voters who feel that French identity and culture are in danger.</p>
<p>In terms of cultural or economic liberalism, the FN’s position is ambivalent, as its supporters and those it targets have divergent viewpoints. Blue- and white-collar workers are in favour of strong social protection, while farmers, small business owners, craftsmen and retirees are generally against the growth of the state, trade unions, and “fiscalism”, to use the expression of Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father. As for “moral” questions, the party’s supporters include those rooted in traditional Catholicism as well as many who are not religious. But overall, Le Pen’s emphasis on more order (this is indeed the central message of her first-round election poster) and authority place her on the side of rejecting cultural liberalism.</p>
<p><strong>François Fillon</strong> was the strongest advocate of pure economic liberalism. He proposed radical measures to “free the economy”, and cited Margaret Thatcher as his model. These promises might well have impeded him from winning the working-class, right-wing vote that Nicolas Sarkozy captured in 2007. The display of his personal Christian convictions and the support of the movement Common Sense (which organises street protests against same-sex marriage) clearly moved the candidate of Les Républicains toward a cultural conservatism. This stance certainly allowed Fillon – on the brink of being evicted completely after <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillon-scandal-is-the-once-favourite-presidential-candidate-toast-72430">“Penelopegate”</a> and other scandals – to keep himself in the race, but it limited support by conservative voters who are culturally liberal.</p>
<p>As for Europe, Fillon adopted a middle position. He chastised his opponents who claimed that leaving the EU or dropping the euro would be beneficial, but also was highly critical on some constraints related to the EU. The same can be said of ethnocentrism: Fillon gradually adopted positions held by former president Nicolas Sarkozy on national identity, French citizenship, and the struggle against fundamentalism (especially Muslim), while posing as a defender of order and security.</p>
<p><strong>Jean-Luc Mélenchon</strong> has chosen a unique combination of positions across the four divisions. While, like Emmanuel Macron, he has historical links to the Socialist Party, he nevertheless shares with Macron only two out of the four boxes: for cultural liberalism and against national ethnocentrism.</p>
<p>On the other hand, he’s a resolute opponent of economic liberalism and a robust supporter of government intervention to improve the living conditions of those who are less well off. And, of course, his positions on Europe put him squarely with the eurosceptics, even europhobes, since his “Plan B” provides room for a possible break from the EU.</p>
<h2>Across the divide?</h2>
<p>When we visualise France’s new four-way political split, it’s easier to understand when activists, elected representatives or citizens say they hesitate for this or that reason, why they find that candidates can say things they support, yet hold other positions they reject. And in this way, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Socialist Party standard-bearer Benoît Hamon deny Emmanuel Macron the right to say he’s from the left, even if a good part of Macron’s electorate is the same as Hollande’s in 2012. And this rejection of economic liberalism is a marker of the left-wing identity Mélenchon and Hamon used to build their electoral bases.</p>
<p>In a sense, Hamon didn’t hesitate to call on his supporters to support Macron in the second round because he shares three boxes with him, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon only two. François Fillon shares just one square with Macron, while Marine Le Pen takes opposite positions from him on three-and-a-half issues out of four.</p>
<p>Because of such cleavages, is France condemned to fall into a kind of enduring political paralysis? Emmanuel Macron has adopted a position of conciliator, but many see their positions as non-negotiable. The question that will become acute in the coming political years – starting with the June legislative campaign and the resulting coalitions – is the ability of both sides to recognise rivals as possible partners, seeing more what is shared than what separates.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Translated from the French by Leighton Walter Kille.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76615/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arnaud Mercier ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>The first round of the presidential election has left French citizens and politicians divided – and the top candidates’ four-way split doesn’t favour governance of the country.Arnaud Mercier, Professeur en Information-Communication à l’Institut Français de presse, Université Paris-Panthéon-AssasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/765652017-04-23T21:30:58Z2017-04-23T21:30:58ZMacron and Le Pen to face off for French presidency – but she won’t be pleased with first round result<p>In the end, the polls were right. Emmanuel Macron will go into the second round of the French presidential election against Marine Le Pen. For a while it seemed as though a dead heat were on the cards but, in the end, Macron <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39686993">took first place</a>, with nearly 24%, ahead of Le Pen at just under 22%.</p>
<p>Republican candidate François Fillon and far-left contender <a href="https://theconversation.com/profile-jean-luc-melenchon-the-far-left-candidate-shaking-up-the-french-election-76384">Jean-Luc Mélenchon</a> followed close behind, with Socialist Benoît Hamon trailing badly. </p>
<p>Despite coming second, for Le Pen and her supporters, the score is a disappointment. For so long, she was touted for first place and predicted a score as high as 27%. Even on the eve of the vote, some pundits were predicting the possibility of a score of 30%. Her score is well behind the 28% the Front National scored in the regional elections in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/dec/13/french-regional-elections-2015-live">December 2015</a>. Above all, it reflects Le Pen’s failure to make the key aspects of her programme count in the campaign. She was strangely muted in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/le-pen-fails-to-land-her-punches-in-first-tv-debate-of-french-presidential-campaign-74950">TV debates</a> and now it shows.</p>
<p>The disappointment was clear on Le Pen’s face when she made her first TV appearance at a little after 9pm on the night of the vote. At her campaign HQ, by 10pm they’d turned off the TV screens and half her supporters had gone home while others were enjoying the disco.</p>
<p>All the polls that have run a Le Pen/Macron scenario for the second round have suggested a 60/40 split in favour of Macron. Le Pen will hope for better, of course, but while she has to believe she can win on May 7, it’s a very long shot. </p>
<p>The final result will have an impact on Le Pen and the future direction of the Front National. She is not in danger of being replaced if she loses; there is no alternative leader for the time being. But the strategy and the programme, largely devised by her acolyte Florian Philippot, will be put under the spotlight. </p>
<p>Her voters are loyal, and Le Pen will hope to secure a proportion of Fillon’s voters as well as those Mélenchon followers who cannot countenance supporting Macron. But with so many other candidates urging their followers to now back Macron, she has a lot of ground to cover in a very short space of time. </p>
<h2>Fillon gracious in defeat</h2>
<p>Despite Mélenchon’s late rally, it seems that Fillon is the third man in this race. At 8.45pm, he appeared at his campaign headquarters to deliver a remarkably dignified speech in which he accepted his defeat and called, without hesitation, for his supporters to vote for Macron in the second round.</p>
<p>Not all of them will. Le Pen will hope that the right wing Catholic vote will swing to her rather than Macron, for example. Nevertheless, with Fillon’s defeat, most of the Republican heavyweights came out in favour of Macron. It may even be that, in due course, once the allegations against him are out of the way and show him to be innocent, Fillon might even foresee a situation where he and other figures from the right might have a role to play between now and 2022.</p>
<p>While Fillon demonstrated both restraint and dignity, throughout the evening Mélenchon and his camp showed the opposite. They refused to accept the projections based on exit polls, even as they appeared to confirm the gap between Macron and Le Pen, and again Fillon and Mélenchon. This is the downside of Mélenchonite. After the fever reaches its high point, it inevitably leads to disappointment, not to say depression. In 2012, having thought he might come third, Mélenchon slipped to fourth, and by a distance. In the last fortnight of this campaign, Mélenchon and his supporters convinced themselves that they would be in the second round. Fly high, fall far.</p>
<p>But Mélenchon succeeded in one of his missions: to reduce Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon to fifth place and a crushing 6.5%. Hamon was out of the blocks first, by 8.15pm, to call for his supporters to vote Macron. By nine, his HQ was empty, with only a handful of journalists hanging around.</p>
<p>Now, with the second round approaching on May 7, Le Pen will be hoping that Macron blunders. But until this point, he has avoided the obstacles thrown across his path, while Le Pen has failed to make her key points count. Perhaps, just perhaps, now that Fillon and Mélenchon are out of the way, Le Pen will find a second wind, and more easily be able to define her programme. She may take back the initiative that has eluded her so far in this campaign. To win she would have to win over a huge slice of the electorate that so far continues to regard a Le Pen presidency as an anathema.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76565/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a historic battle, we now know that one of two people will be the next president of France.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/765322017-04-21T16:04:13Z2017-04-21T16:04:13ZQ&A: What role has the fight against terror played in the French election?<p><em>As the 11 candidates vying for the French presidency were making their last televised bids to the electorate on the evening of April 20, news broke that a policeman <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662315">had been killed</a> in an attack on the Champs-Élysées in Paris. Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility, though this has not yet been confirmed, and an investigation was launched by French anti-terror police. Leading right-wing candidates <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-fillon-shooting-idUKKBN17M2RY">François Fillon</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/21/counryside-marine-le-pen-forgotten-france-presidential-election-2017">Marine Le Pen</a> cancelled their last public campaign rallies ahead of the first round of voting on April 23.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked Eglantine Staunton, research fellow at the University of Leeds, to explain the role terrorism has played in the election campaign.</em> </p>
<p><strong>Has the fight against terrorism played a big part in the campaign?</strong></p>
<p>The fight against terrorism – and security issues more generally – has been one of the most debated issues of the presidential campaign (along with economic measures). It is a real concern for the French population as France has recently had to face several terrorist attacks and threats on its soil. The presidential campaign has not put these concerns to ease, with the <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/18/35003-20170418ARTFIG00300-securite-une-campagne-sous-tres-haute-tension.php">Le Figaro</a> newspaper arguing that there have never been so many terrorist threats during a presidential campaign. On April 18, two men were arrested in Marseille for planning a “<a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/police-justice/article/2017/04/18/arrestation-de-deux-hommes-soupconnes-de-preparer-des-attentats-avant-les-elections_5113042_1653578.html">violent and imminent attack</a>”, which was suspected of targeting some of the leading presidential candidates.</p>
<p>Beyond the concerns of the French population, journalists have also played a role by focusing on the fight against terrorism. This issue sells papers because it leads to heated debates between the candidates. </p>
<p><strong>How important is terrorism to French voters as they consider who to vote for?</strong> </p>
<p>In light of the importance of the fight against terrorism for the French population, this issue will likely play a central role in people’s decision, especially in light of recent events since so many voters remain undecided. A <a href="http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/elections/presidentielle-les-electeurs-plus-indecis-que-jamais_1881116.html">poll published on April 16</a> reported that with a week to go, less than 50% of the population intending to vote in the first round of the election knew who they would vote for. </p>
<p>Even though it is hard to predict how much of an impact the attack on the Champs-Élysées may have on the vote, it is likely to benefit Le Pen and her Front National in the short run. By proposing the expulsion of foreigners who are suspected of having ties with terrorists, and the departure of France from the Schengen free movement zone, she appears to many as the candidate who has the strongest programme against terrorism. Le Pen has <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/19/35003-20170419ARTFIG00155-avec-moi-il-n-y-aurait-pas-eu-d-attentat-marine-le-pen-persiste.php?pagination=30">also claimed</a> that if she were president, there would not have been terrorist attacks. The morning after the Champs-Élysées attack, she called for <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-shooting-le-pen-idUKKBN17N0UQ?il=0il=0">French borders to be reinstated</a>. </p>
<p>Fillon <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/19/35003-20170419ARTFIG00335-fillon-sur-la-lutte-contre-l-islamisme-comme-sur-tout-le-reste-macron-est-flou.php?redirect_premium">warned</a> right-wing voters who are concerned by security matters that voting for Le Pen, rather than for him, would actually benefit Macron in the long run and increase the centrist candidate’s chance of making it to the second round on May 7. </p>
<p><strong>How have the left-wing and centrist candidates proposed that they will tackle the terrorism threat?</strong></p>
<p>As expected, proposals to fight terrorism and increase security have been extensively developed by right and extreme-right candidates Fillon and Le Pen. However, considering how important these issues are for the French population, this is no longer an issue left to the right wing.</p>
<p>In terms of what can be done internationally, the centrist Emmanuel Macron <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/06/35003-20170406ARTFIG00132-comment-les-pretendants-a-l-elysee-comptent-ils-gerer-le-dossier-syrien.php">has suggested</a> that he would be willing to cooperate – at least temporarily – with leaders like Syria’s Bashar al-Assad since IS constitutes a common enemy and his priority is to eradicate terrorism. </p>
<p>From a domestic point of view, Macron’s positions are not as clear. In particular, he seems undecided about whether terrorists holding a double nationality should be stripped of their French one and this has led candidates like Fillon <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/19/35003-20170419ARTFIG00335-fillon-sur-la-lutte-contre-l-islamisme-comme-sur-tout-le-reste-macron-est-flou.php?redirect_premium">to criticise him</a> for not having clear objectives. Even though Macron has promoted a reinforcement of FRONTEX (the European Border and Coast Guard Agency), his pro-Europe – and pro-Schengen – position has not helped reassure the voters who believe the lack of French frontiers is to blame for the attacks. </p>
<p>The far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s position has created even more controversy among voters who are concerned with terrorism. By promoting the end of the state of emergency and arguing that stripping terrorists of the French nationality was “<a href="http://melenchon.fr/2016/01/21/contributions-contre-la-decheance-de-nationalite/">shameful</a>”, he has been the object of fierce criticism and his position is deemed to be particularly weak when it comes to fighting terrorism. </p>
<p><strong>What are the main ways French anti-terrorism policy has changed since the 2012 election? How has this – and the ongoing state of emergency – influenced the campaign?</strong></p>
<p>In addition to several counter-terrorism laws which have been passed by the French parliament since 2012, key anti-terror measures have also been put in place. These include the state of emergency, a <a href="http://www.stop-djihadisme.gouv.fr/">“stop jihadism” website</a>, training for judicial services to identify those who might be under the influence of terrorist networks, reinforced security controls such as a <em>plan vigipirate</em> (similar to the UK threat level) and increased recruitment to the secret services, police and army. </p>
<p>Some of these measures have generated heated debates during the campaign. The maintenance of the state of emergency is one of them. Fillon wants to reinforce it, while Mélenchon wants to put an end to it.</p>
<p>But the issue that has been at the centre of many of the debates on terrorism remains the proposal to strip terrorists who hold more than one nationality of their French one. Even though the proposal was originally put forward by the existing government before <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/30/francois-hollande-drops-plan-to-revoke-citizenship-of-dual-national-terrorists">eventually being put</a> to rest by outgoing president, François Hollande, in light of the controversy it created, it has remained at the centre of the 2017 presidential campaign.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76532/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Eglantine Staunton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The killing of a policeman in a terror attack has heightened tensions as France chooses its next president.Dr Eglantine Staunton, Research fellow, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/753722017-04-19T01:11:10Z2017-04-19T01:11:10ZWhy the French presidential candidates are arguing about their colonial history<p>When the French presidential elections begin on April 23, the world will be watching closely. </p>
<p>Polls are tightening up, but Marine Le Pen, of the far-right National Front (FN) Party, seems likely to get through to the second, runoff ballot on May 10. Will the xenophobic populism that brought Brexit to the U.K. and Donald Trump to the White House claim the Elysée Palace, too?</p>
<p>Le Pen’s expected advance has been one of the few constants in a campaign marked by surprising, dispiriting twists. To a historian of French colonialism like me, one of the most revealing is the renewed debate over the memory and teaching of the colonial past. The candidates’ positions on this issue can be seen as a revealing barometer of French attitudes toward immigration, race and multiculturalism today. </p>
<h2>Sixty million subjects</h2>
<p>At its height in the 1930s, the French empire encompassed some 60 million colonial subjects, from <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Greater_France.html?id=UFD_d-d7FhgC">the Caribbean to Southeast Asia</a>. But after decolonization in the 1950s and 1960s, the French relegated imperial racism, slavery and colonialism to the “<a href="http://www.beacon.org/Silencing-the-Past-P329.aspx">historical back burner</a>.” The eruption of the <a href="https://www.cairn.info/les-guerres-de-memoires--9782707154637.htm">history wars</a> finally broke this public silence in the mid-1990s. </p>
<p>There were two main triggers for the decade-long fight about how to remember France’s colonial history. </p>
<p>The first was the 150th anniversary of the French abolition of colonial slavery in 1998. Angered by the self-congratulatory celebration of French abolitionists, black and Afro-Caribbean activists demanded greater attention to <a href="http://www.temple.edu/tempress/titles/2424_reg.html">enslaved Africans’ suffering</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165662/original/image-20170418-32723-dyb9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165662/original/image-20170418-32723-dyb9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165662/original/image-20170418-32723-dyb9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165662/original/image-20170418-32723-dyb9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165662/original/image-20170418-32723-dyb9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165662/original/image-20170418-32723-dyb9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165662/original/image-20170418-32723-dyb9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165662/original/image-20170418-32723-dyb9k5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Christiane Taubira.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christiane_Taubira#/media/File:Christiane_Taubira_par_Claude_Truong-Ngoc_juin_2013.jpg">Wikicommons/Claude Truong Ngoc</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Their efforts culminated in a 2001 law sponsored by Guyanese deputy Christiane Taubira. The “<a href="https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/affichTexte.do?cidTexte=LEGITEXT000005630984&dateTexte=vig">Taubira Law</a>” “recognizes the slave trade and slavery as crimes against humanity.” </p>
<p>The second came in 2000, with revelations about the French army’s systematic use of torture during the Algerian War of Independence (1954-1962). Memoirs published by an Algerian nationalist and a French military officer and studies by <a href="http://www.editionsladecouverte.fr/catalogue/index-Une__dr__le_de_justice-9782707142580.html">two young French historians</a> <a href="http://www.gallimard.fr/Catalogue/GALLIMARD/Folio/Folio-histoire/La-torture-et-l-armee-pendant-la-guerre-d-Algerie">unleashed harsh condemnation</a> of abuses committed in Algeria, <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100455090">the jewel of the French empire</a>.</p>
<h2>A notorious law</h2>
<p>The supposed injustice of such criticisms of French empire is <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/004724419802810906?journalCode=jesa">a favored theme</a> of the National Front and its founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s father and a veteran of the Algerian War. Nostalgia for the colonies jibes neatly with the FN’s nationalistic, anti-immigrant, Islamophobic ideology. Strategically, “positive” accounts of the colonial past appeal to former settlers from French North Africa, known as <a href="http://www.cairn.info/revue-pole-sud-2006-1-page-75.html">pieds-noirs</a>, and to nationalist defenders of the French military. </p>
<p>This made colonial revisionism tempting to mainstream conservatives, too, as FN began to gain electoral ground beginning in the mid-1980s. Jean-Marie Le Pen’s shocking advance to the second round of the 2002 presidential elections spurred new conservative efforts to win back FN voters, especially <a href="http:/www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9780719087233/">the pieds-noirs</a>. </p>
<p>Prime among them was the infamous <a href="https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/affichTexte.do?cidTexte=JORFTEXT000000444898&dateTexte=&categorieLien=id">law of Feb. 23, 2005</a>, whose Article 4 specified that French school programs should “recognize the positive role of the French presence overseas, especially in North Africa.”</p>
<p>Historians responded with loud, public <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/apr/15/highereducation.artsandhumanities">outrage</a>. They objected to the imposition of an “official history,” the sidelining of slavery, racism and colonial violence, and the apparent endorsement of <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2005/03/24/colonisation-non-a-l-enseignement-d-une-histoire-officielle_630960_3224.html">nationalist ethnocentrism</a>. The ensuing outcry convinced President Jacques Chirac to <a href="http://www.iupress.indiana.edu/product_info.php?products_id=137787">repeal the offending Article 4</a> a year later.</p>
<p>But since then, rising protests against inequality from immigrant and minority groups and growing fears of Islamist terrorism have fueled the revival of colonial revisionism on the French Right. </p>
<h2>History and political positioning</h2>
<p>Among the current presidential candidates, not only the current FN leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s daughter Marine, but also the (now scandal-ridden) conservative candidate François Fillon have publicly endorsed revisionist colonial histories. </p>
<p>Marine Le Pen has long favored <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2013/02/26/marine-le-pen-contre-enseignement-seconde-guerre-mondiale-colonisation_n_2766337.html">“rebalancing”</a> secondary school curricula. She objects to what she calls the “masochism” of critical histories and calls for counting empire as one of the “glorious elements” of the French past. Students should be taught colonization’s “positive aspects” alongside its negatives.</p>
<p>Fillon, for his part, carries on the conservative attempt to peel off FN support by co-opting its rosy view of colonialism. In <a href="http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/pour-francois-fillon-la-colonisation-visait-a-partager-sa-culture_1825773.html">a speech</a> last August, he denounced school programs that teach students “to be ashamed” of their country’s treatment of colonized peoples. Instead, textbooks and lesson plans should be revised to give a more favorable image of colonization as a “sharing of culture.”</p>
<p>“France is not blameworthy for wanting to share its culture with the peoples of Africa, Asia and North America,” Fillon <a href="http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/pour-francois-fillon-la-colonisation-visait-a-partager-sa-culture_1825773.html">declared</a>, nor should it be held particularly responsible for the evils of slavery. </p>
<p>Also excised from Marine Le Pen’s “most positive, most flattering” version of national history is French collaboration with the Nazis during World War II. Too painful and “complex” for children, such events should be revisited only in high school, “<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2013/02/26/marine-le-pen-contre-enseignement-seconde-guerre-mondiale-colonisation_n_2766337.html">if it’s necessary</a>.”</p>
<p>Fillon agrees that primary school is no place for difficult, uncomplimentary historical topics. “Calling our history into question: this is a shameful teaching!” he protested in <a href="http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/pour-francois-fillon-la-colonisation-visait-a-partager-sa-culture_1825773.html">his August 2016 speech</a>. Like Le Pen, Fillon sees a glorious national “narrative” (récit) as essential to national unity. Teachers should focus on figures, sites and events whose meaning lies “in the progressive construction of France’s singular civilization.”</p>
<p>This view of history education has been a staple of French nationalism since the Third Republic made primary public schooling <a href="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=3200">free and compulsory in the 1880s</a>. In the 19th century, lessons about the development of French civilization aimed to cultivate patriotism and civic virtue among future (male) voters and soldiers. Today, Le Pen and Fillon both seek to revive this colonial-era tradition and, by extension, the hierarchies of race and civilization that defined it.</p>
<p>Only one candidate has openly challenged this new revisionism: the current favorite to face Le Pen in the second round, centrist former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron. Macron made waves in February by telling an Algerian television station that French colonization in North Africa was a <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/elections-presidentielle-legislatives-2017/2017/02/15/en-algerie-emmanuel-macron-qualifie-la-colonisation-francaise-de-crime-contre-l-humanite_1548723">“crime against humanity.”</a> </p>
<p>“Colonization is part of French history,” he said. “It is a true barbarity and a part of that past we must confront head-on, while also apologizing to the women and men against whom we committed these acts.” He went on to specifically denounce any effort to glorify colonization, as Article 4 had tried to do in 2005.</p>
<p>These are forceful words that might have signaled a shift in official discourse on colonial history, had the speaker been willing to stand by them. </p>
<p>He wasn’t. </p>
<p>When the Right and pied-noir groups accused him of indulging in unpatriotic, leftist “repentance,” Macron folded. Only four days later, he apologized not to the victims of colonization but to <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/02/18/nouvelle-manifestation-de-pieds-noirs-devant-le-meeting-de-macron-a-toulon_5081891_4854003.html">the pieds-noirs</a>. </p>
<p>Equally damning, Macron’s Algiers statement was a flagrant about-face from an interview he did last November with the French magazine <a href="http://www.jeuneafrique.com/376888/societe/france-emmanuel-macron/">Le Point</a>. Then, he had earned condemnations from the left for <a href="https://twitter.com/LarrereMathilde/status/801425252173672449">saying</a> that “the reality of colonization” included “elements of civilization and elements of barbarity.”</p>
<p>Macron’s shifting position on French colonization is clearly opportunistic, making it hard to tell what he really thinks about it. But perhaps what matters most is that he saw taking a position on the colonial past as a political opportunity in the first place. In the current election, as in the history wars of 20 years ago, colonial history has once again become political.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75372/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nothing to disclose.
</span></em></p>Should French children be taught about the ‘positive aspects’ of colonialism? What the presidential candidates say.Jennifer Sessions, Associate Professor of History, University of IowaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/762492017-04-18T14:35:15Z2017-04-18T14:35:15ZFrench election: where the candidates stand on foreign policy<p>The first round of the French presidential elections will take place on April 23. Foreign policy has traditionally played a central role during presidential campaigns, but this has not been the case this time around. This can partly be explained by the unusually high number of candidates (11 in total), the fact that what matters to the French today seems limited to what is happening within France, and the focus of the journalists on domestic issues. </p>
<p>So, what can be expected in terms of foreign policy from the four leading candidates from the extreme left to extreme right: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon, and Marine Le Pen?</p>
<h2>The European Union</h2>
<p>Europe has been one of the most debated foreign policy issues during this election campaign. A win for Macron, the centrist independent representing his En Marche! movement, would please europhiles, since he is by far the most pro-European candidate. As well as expressing his support for the survival of the EU, he even wants to expand its capacity. For instance, he proposes to further develop Europe’s defence capability by creating a European security council. It would be composed of “<a href="https://en-marche.fr/emmanuel-macron/le-programme/defense">military, diplomats, and intelligence experts</a>” and would advise the key European decision makers on defence related issues. </p>
<p>Mélenchon from the far-left France Insoumise party, and Le Pen of the Front National are both highly eurosceptic. Mélenchon wants to dramatically renegotiate the terms of the union and to leave if that process fails. Le Pen wants to take France out of the eurozone and to propose a referendum on a full “Frexit”.</p>
<p>Fillon, from the right wing Les Républicains is not as pro-Europe as Macron but remains committed to the regional organisation. However, he wants reforms to take place in order to address some of the perceived weaknesses of the EU, in particular in terms of security and the governance of the eurozone.</p>
<h2>Syria (and Russia)</h2>
<p>Apart from Le Pen, who does not explicitly mention Syria in her manifesto, the other three candidates have argued that France needs to be actively involved in resolving the conflict. But they take different views of what should happen to Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president.</p>
<p>Mélenchon’s position is not clear while Fillon’s has shifted: he used to tolerate Assad because the priority was to eradicate terrorism and the Syrian leader was seen as a tool to achieve this goal. In <a href="https://www.fillon2017.fr/projet/politique-etrangere/">his programme</a>, Fillon suggested that anyone fighting so-called Islamic State (IS), including – if necessary – the current regime, would be an ally of France in Syria. However, Fillon’s reaction to the regime’s recent chemical attack against civilians appears to suggest that this is no longer the case. In an <a href="https://www.franceinter.fr/emissions/geopolitique/geopolitique-06-avril-2017">interview after the attack</a>, he declared that he wanted to talk with the Russians and others in order to begin organising a political transition to put an end to the massacres. </p>
<p>Since the beginning of the conflict, Le Pen has supported the idea that Assad is <a href="http://fr.reuters.com/article/topNews/idFRKBN15Z1AF">“the only viable solution”</a> to the situation in Syria. She condemned the chemical attack, but <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/07/35003-20170407ARTFIG00069-le-fn-decu-par-donald-trump-apres-les-frappes-sur-la-syrie.php">refused to blame</a> Assad until a full international investigation could take place. She also criticised US president, Donald Trump, for authorising airstrikes before such an investigation could occur. </p>
<p>Macron adopts the middle ground. He doesn’t see Assad as being part of the future of Syria but is willing to work with him temporarily. This can be explained by the fact that his priority is to fight IS, but also because in his view, the “Assad must go” approach has put the UN Security Council in a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un-vote-idUSKBN17E2LK">state of stalemate</a> for too long. Even though he has consistently criticised the Syrian leader and has expressed his will to see him referred to the International Criminal Court, <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/06/35003-20170406ARTFIG00132-comment-les-pretendants-a-l-elysee-comptent-ils-gerer-le-dossier-syrien.php">he also explained after the chemical attack</a> that not all objectives could be achieved at once, therefore suggesting that Assad was here to stay in the immediate future.</p>
<p>The candidates also disagree on what Russia’s role should be in Syria. Mélenchon, Fillon and Le Pen all promote a central role for Russia and have even suggested that the EU sanctions established after the conflict in Ukraine should be lifted. Le Pen also undertook a very controversial visit to Russia to meet with Putin in March 2017, showing her ties with the Russian leader. </p>
<p>Macron deplores what he refers to as his adversaries’ fascination with Putin. He believes the Russian president is key to the conflict resolution, but also wants <a href="http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/ce-que-dit-melenchon-sur-la-syrie-n-est-pas-serieux-selon-macron-1139178.html">Russia to face its responsibilities</a>, in particular when it comes to pressuring the Syrian regime to put an end to the massacres. </p>
<h2>Security and migration</h2>
<p>The fight against terrorism remains a priority for all the candidates. In light of the recent attacks on French soil and neighbouring countries, this is a major concern for the French population. The main candidates have expressed their willingness to cooperate with any regime that is willing to take part in this fight (even, in some cases, controversial ones like Assad’s).</p>
<p>However, terrorism has mainly been discussed in terms of its domestic implications. Le Pen and Fillon want to strip people who hold dual nationality and are convicted of terrorism of their French nationality – an idea first mooted by the current government. They would also expel any nationals who have gone abroad to fight for terrorist organisations.</p>
<p>Mélenchon sees such an approach as <a href="http://melenchon.fr/2016/01/21/contributions-contre-la-decheance-de-nationalite/">“shameful”</a>. He suggests alternative options, such as the withdrawal of some civil rights (such as voting). Macron seems more indecisive and appears to suggest that it could be an option for people holding double nationality, but only in extreme cases.</p>
<p>Tied to this issue is the question of what to do about French national borders. As part of the Schengen area, there are no checks at the borders with European countries – a practice called into question every time a terrorist attack occurs on French soil.</p>
<p>Le Pen and Mélenchon both want to leave Schengen – although their reasons are not strictly limited to security concerns but are also linked to their vision of an independent and free France.</p>
<p>Macron though wants France to remain within Schengen, but suggests a reinforcement of <a href="http://frontex.europa.eu/">FRONTEX</a> (the European Border and Coast Guard Agency). Fillon goes a step further by arguing that although France needs to remain part of the shared space, the Schengen agreements need to be reformed in order to allow additional measures – such as targeted controls in areas which refugees and immigrants are known to use.</p>
<p>Even though foreign policy has been forgotten during this campaign, its implications will be major, not only for France, but for the rest of Europe and the international community. As such, it should hopefully – although, unlikely – play a more predominant role in the last few days of campaigning and during the two-week wait for the second round of voting for the two leading candidates on May 7.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Eglantine Staunton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Their policies on Syria, Russia, terrorism and the European Union.Dr Eglantine Staunton, Research fellow, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/761412017-04-14T00:49:58Z2017-04-14T00:49:58ZSix questions about the French elections<p><em>Editor’s note: As France goes to the polls to elect a new president, observers are wondering if the vote will follow a populist trend that led to <a href="https://theconversation.com/britain-exits-the-eu-how-brexit-will-hit-america-61412">Brexit</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-that-explain-donald-trumps-stunning-presidential-election-victory-66891">the election of Donald Trump</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Here are a few important things to know about the upcoming vote, as explained by Joshua Cole, an American scholar of <a href="http://books.wwnorton.com/books/webad.aspx?id=17165">European history</a>.</em></p>
<h2>1. How does the French presidential electoral process work?</h2>
<p>Prospective candidates must gather 500 signatures of support from French elected officials and have their candidacy approved by the Constitutional Court. A presidential term is five years, and all citizens 18 years and older can vote. This year the first round of voting is on April 23. If no candidate gets more than 50 percent, there will be a second-round runoff between the top two candidates on May 7.</p>
<h2>2. Is president an important job in France?</h2>
<p>The prime minister is the head of the French government, but the president outranks the prime minister and has important powers in national defense and foreign relations. </p>
<p>The president also chooses the prime minister from the majority party in parliament. Occasionally, the president is forced to choose a prime minister from a different party than his or her own. This is called “cohabitation.” This year, the legislative elections will be in two rounds on June 11 and 18.</p>
<h2>3. Who are the most popular candidates for president?</h2>
<p>Eleven <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38220690">candidates</a> are running, with five seen as the main contenders. Two candidates are leading the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-french-election/">polls:</a> Marine Le Pen of the extreme right-wing National Front and Emmanuel Macron, a centrist and former economics minister, who is not associated with a traditional party. </p>
<p>Surprisingly, the candidates from the <a href="http://about-france.com/political-parties.htm">parties</a> who have dominated presidential politics for almost 40 years – the Republicans and the Socialists – are seen as unlikely to make the second round. Republican François Fillon has been hobbled by <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/14/europe/francois-fillon-investigation/">scandal.</a> Socialist Bénoit Hamon has found little traction among voters tired of the current socialist president, François Hollande. </p>
<p>A candidate from the far left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has seen his <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21720667-worst-case-scenario-run-between-marine-le-pen-and-communist-backed-firebrand-frances">chances</a> of making the second round improve in recent days.</p>
<h2>4. France has been under a nationwide state of emergency since November of 2015. Is security a big issue?</h2>
<p>Multiple terrorist attacks in 2015-2016 have made security more important than ever. <a href="https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/France_2008">Article 16 of the French Constitution</a> gives the president the power to declare a state of emergency and then exercise executive and legislative powers simultaneously, ruling directly by decree. Given the likelihood of more terrorist attacks, this possibility has received a great deal of attention of late. A group of lawyers and jurists recently published a <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2017/04/11/la-constitution-donne-trop-de-pouvoir-au-president-pour-le-confier-au-fn_5109367_3232.html?xtmc=article_16&xtcr=5">letter</a> arguing that the Constitution gives too much power to the presidency and that electing Le Pen was a danger to French democracy.</p>
<h2>5. During the 2012 election, some said then-President Nicolas Sarkozy was afraid to visit immigrant neighborhoods. How are these so-called “banlieues” playing into the election this time?</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/08/31/the-other-france">banlieues</a> are zones of economic and cultural exclusion, where problems of chronic unemployment are concentrated. Not all French Muslims (about 8 percent of the <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/07/19/5-facts-about-the-muslim-population-in-europe/">population</a>) live in the banlieues, but some banlieues have large Muslim populations. Le Pen’s campaign painted the banlieues as zones of failed assimilation and a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/18/world/europe/marine-le-pens-anti-islam-message-gains-influence-in-france.html?_r=0">danger</a> to France, blaming the residents for their own isolation.</p>
<h2>6. What are the chances Le Pen will win?</h2>
<p>Le Pen is popular among many <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/01/522177444/frances-national-front-party-draws-young-voters-to-the-far-right">young people</a>, who seem not to be bothered by the National Front’s <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38321401">long association</a> with racism and anti-Semitism. She is also supported by those who are opposed to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/05/marine-le-pen-promises-liberation-from-the-eu-with-france-first-policies">European integration</a>. Most <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-presidential-election-marine-le-pen-lose-emmanuel-macron-win-poll-voters-certain-choice-a7665706.html">polls</a> say a second-round runoff between Le Pen and Macron is likely, and that Macron will win this match-up. With more than a third of the <a href="https://qz.com/950677/france-presidential-election-2017-the-voter-apathy-that-helped-donald-trump-win-could-help-elect-frances-marine-le-pen/">electorate</a> saying they’re undecided on whom to vote for in the second round, the result may end up being much closer than predicted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76141/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Cole has previously received funding from the Mellon Foundation, the National Endowment for the Humanities, the Bourse Chateaubriand (France), the Centre National des Oeuvres Universitaires et Scolaires (France), the Social Science Research Council, and the Council for European Studies. He has also received research support from the University of Georgia and the University of Michigan (including from the Frankel Institute for Advanced Judaic Studies, the Institute for the Humanities, and the Eisenberg Institute for Historical Studies).</span></em></p>Get up to speed before the first round of voting on April 23.Joshua Cole, Professor of History, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/758602017-04-07T01:56:40Z2017-04-07T01:56:40ZFrance’s presidential campaign pits a strategy of fear against one of opportunity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164371/original/image-20170407-16685-1o8vkp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It is still difficult to predict who will be the next French president.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With two weeks to go until the first round of the French presidential election, many people in France are stunned by the low quality of the campaign, which has been largely dominated by François Fillon’s <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/fillon-corruption-scandal_us_58c83a00e4b015d064bfa9eb">legal saga</a>. There has, to date, been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/08/france-right-wing-scandals-socialists-struggling-heard-hamon-melenchon">very little in-depth discussion</a> about actual policy.</p>
<p>Behind the judicial turmoils of some of the candidates, it is becoming increasingly clear that the campaign is about two significantly opposed visions of the future. One is declinist, supported by strategies of fear. The second is optimistic, promoting a strategy of opportunity.</p>
<h2>Optimism versus anxiety</h2>
<p>Three candidates claim they represent a majority of the French people, are haunted by a fear of French decline, and are deeply anxious about France’s role in an increasingly globalised world. </p>
<p>This approach of anxiety and threat perception is represented by Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidate for the far-left movement Unsubmissive France, and François Fillon, for the conservative Republicans.</p>
<p>But, there is also a very different strategy, developed by Benoît Hamon, the Socialist Party candidate, and Emmanuel Macron, leader of En Marche! What’s remarkable is that both candidates promote a far more optimistic vision of opportunities for a better life and a better France.</p>
<p>Far-left Mélenchon and far-right Le Pen are diametrically opposed in many respects. However, Le Pen and Mélenchon share four similar diagnoses of the economic, identity and societal insecurities France is facing.</p>
<p>First, both Mélenchon and Le Pen base their strategies on anti-EU policies. They claim France’s economic independence requires a withdrawal from the eurozone, from the European Union’s treaties, and even – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/24/european-far-right-hails-britains-brexit-vote-marine-le-pen">in Le Pen’s case</a> – an exit from the EU as a whole.</p>
<p>Second, both leaders adhere to significant anti-globalisation policies. Le Pen and Mélenchon claim France’s economic difficulties come from its openness to the global market. Their remedy is protectionist policies.</p>
<p>A third common approach in narrative is that both play on the rejection of traditional elites and present themselves as anti-system. </p>
<p>This has been successful as a populist strategy, even though both belong to the system they loudly condemn – a trait observers of Donald Trump will recognise. Le Pen’s family is extremely wealthy and deeply connected to France’s aristocracy. Mélenchon was a minister in a former Socialist government. </p>
<p>A final similarity is that both claim to genuinely defend the working class and advance similar social policies – notably, to <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/economie/le-scan-eco/decryptage/2017/01/06/29002-20170106ARTFIG00177-retraite-a-60-ans-secu-integrale-le-programme-economique-de-jean-luc-melenchon.php">lower the pension age to 60</a>.</p>
<p>These similarities partly attract the <a href="https://www.franceculture.fr/politique/comment-le-front-national-capte-t-il-lelectorat-de-gauche">same electorate</a>: the working class and the less-educated sections of society that have not benefited from globalisation.</p>
<p>However, the far-left has been associated with policy failure because Mélenchon has been in government in the past. Thus the strategy of fear mainly reinforces Le Pen’s popularity, rather than Mélenchon’s. </p>
<p>The current graphic representation of the far-right electorate in France tends to be an overlay of the traditional map of the communist and far-left electorate until the 1990s, when the Communist Party lost its appeal. According to a poll carried out in early March, 48% of the French working class now <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/07/un-tiers-des-francais-se-disent-en-accord-avec-les-idees-du-front-national_5090202_4854003.html">supports Le Pen’s program</a>.</p>
<p>More broadly, both Le Pen and Mélenchon call for a return to an idealised – and historically inaccurate – past. </p>
<p>According to Le Pen, France’s salvation will come from going back to a traditional society that does not value any diversity, by <a href="http://www.leparisien.fr/elections/presidentielle/candidats-et-programmes/le-programme-de-marine-le-pen-pour-la-presidentielle-2017-13-02-2017-6677067.php">implementing strict assimilation policies</a>. For Mélenchon, the solution is a return to a protectionist economy that supports a strong working class.</p>
<h2>The less-extreme candidates</h2>
<p>Fillon is not as pessimistic as these extremes, although he does call for <a href="https://www.fillon2017.fr/projet/dette/">tough austerity measures</a> – such as reducing the numbers of public servants by 500,000. He argues the French must tighten their belts for the next five years to avoid a situation like Greece.</p>
<p>What then of the two youngest candidates in the presidential election, who have developed their strategies with a distinctly optimistic tone? </p>
<p>Macron and Hamon, whose programs are significantly different, share a discourse around the politics of opportunity. Both candidates promote a strategy of welcome and acceptance when it comes to immigration and refugees.</p>
<p>At a time of continued crisis in the EU, both promote a significant deepening of EU integration. Hamon is in favour of <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/09/benoit-hamon-veut-renforcer-la-zone-euro-pour-sauver-l-union-europeenne_5091770_4854003.html">strengthening the eurozone</a>. And Macron has made the development of a genuine <a href="https://en-marche.fr/emmanuel-macron/le-programme/europe">European army and diplomacy</a> a priority.</p>
<p>Macron seems to have found a successful strategy – at least for now. His centrist approach has become very popular; he’s <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/03/09/macron-devant-le-pen-qui-fait-peur-aux-francais_5091659_4854003.html">leading in the polls</a>. What’s more, many politicians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/22/french-elections-centrist-bayrou-offers-alliance-with-macron">from the left and the centre</a> have publicly supported Macron, as they calculate that En Marche! constitutes the most effective opposition to Le Pen. </p>
<p>However, Macron, like Hamon, struggles to convince many workers that a globalised economy offers benefits for them. Macron’s base is currently limited to the most-educated part of the population, which has been the main beneficiary of globalisation.</p>
<p>It is still difficult to predict who will be the next French president. The campaign has an increasingly populist dimension. All candidates have had to deal with a disaffection with established parties and political elites. </p>
<p>What’s clear is that the campaign has revealed narratives of two very distinctive Frances – one that perceives an ever-more globalised economy as a direct threat, and another that perceives challenges as opportunities. </p>
<p>After Brexit and Trump, will French voters put a halt to the declinist and populist wave sweeping other Western nations?</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was co-published with <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/">Pursuit</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75860/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Soyez is a non-active member of En Marche! </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philomena Murray does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Behind the judicial turmoils of some of the candidates, it is becoming increasingly clear that the French presidential campaign is about two significantly opposed visions of the future.Paul Soyez, PhD Candidate in International Relations, The University of MelbournePhilomena Murray, Professor, School of Social and Political Sciences and EU Centre on Shared Complex Challenges, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/738772017-03-01T15:34:48Z2017-03-01T15:34:48ZFrançois Fillon’s coup de théâtre shocks and dismays<p>For much of the morning of March 1, the French media was buzzing with the news that François Fillon might be about to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/01/francois-fillon-sparks-speculation-with-last-minute-farm-fair-pullout">drop out</a> of the 2017 presidential race. The rumours started flying the moment it was revealed, a little before 8am, that Fillon was postponing his trip to the Salon de l’Agriculture event in Paris, and would instead be holding a press conference at his campaign HQ. The announcement could not have been more last minute. Members of Fillon’s own team, <a href="http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/francois-fillon/video-quand-l-equipe-de-fillon-decouvre-en-direct-le-report-de-sa-visite-au-salon-de-l-agriculture_2076207.html#xtatc=INT-5">waiting outside the exhibition centre</a>, only found out by phone.</p>
<p>While a photo opportunity with a cow might not be everyone’s idea of the dream selfie, in France, where farming is such a central part of cultural identity, it is unthinkable that a candidate with serious presidential aspirations would stand up the Salon de l’Agriculture. Marine Le Pen attended the day before and Emmanuel Macron was due to arrive just a little after Fillon.</p>
<p>The buzz was further fuelled by the sight of various party heavyweights coming and going from Fillon’s HQ. At one point, it was said that Fillon had spoken at length with former rivals Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy. This prompted speculation that one of them – probably Juppé – would be stepping in to replace him.</p>
<p>Then, as the nation looked on, holding its collective breath, Fillon stepped up to the podium to announce that no, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/01/francois-fillon-faces-formal-investigation-over-fake-jobs-allegations">he would not be standing down</a>. He would battle on, despite the allegations of <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillon-scandal-is-the-once-favourite-presidential-candidate-toast-72430">corruption</a> that continue to dog his candidacy. It had all been a coup de théâtre.</p>
<h2>Sticking it out</h2>
<p>Despite Fillon’s previous tough talk and the continued outward support of the party leadership, the Republican grassroots have remained uneasy. At the weekends, when members of the French parliament have been out in their constituencies, they’ve been getting it in the neck. Why were they allowing this candidate to continue, when the stakes are so high? This is an election the right’s supporters cannot bear to lose … and are about to. </p>
<p>Some local party dignitaries have suddenly been finding that they haven’t space in their diaries to host a campaign meeting – as happened in Limoges, for example, where the right won in the 2014 municipal elections, after more than a century of left-wing administration.</p>
<p>One way or another, it has been very difficult for Fillon’s campaign to get out of first gear in this race. He hasn’t been helped by left-wing agitators turning up at his meetings and <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/02/14/35003-20170214ARTFIG00160-fillon-prive-de-meeting-a-limoges-celui-de-clermont-ferrand-repousse.php">banging saucepans</a> – a reference to the French expression “traîner des casseroles”, meaning to have dirty linen.</p>
<p>Authorities continue to investigate whether Fillon’s wife Penelope actually did the job she was being paid to do by her husband over a number of years. The Fillons have now been summoned to attend preliminary hearings on March 15 and 18, which could then lead to them being indicted. This is embarrassing enough in its own right, but the date is critical, because the March 17 marks the closing date for the Constitutional Council to receive the <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-party-and-not-much-policy-but-emmanuel-macron-is-still-on-a-roll-73775">500 signatures</a> candidates require to be ratified.</p>
<p>Rumour of the dates had made it to the mainstream press by mid-morning, but were only confirmed by Fillon himself when he finally appeared before the press at a little after 12.30. Fillon has maintained, since the story broke in Le Canard enchaîné in late January, that, while employing his wife (and children) as assistants may have been an error of judgement on his part, he has done nothing illegal and that the work was done.</p>
<h2>I’ve been stitched up!</h2>
<p>For Fillon, the whole process has been orchestrated by the Socialist government. He claims it is manipulating the judiciary to undermine his candidature. If the opinion polls are anything to go by (and we may have our doubts about them), Fillon will be eliminated in the first round, with Le Pen and Macron going into the run off.</p>
<p>Herein lay the core of Fillon’s message. The decision to proceed with the case, as he put it during the press conference, is to set up a contest between the far right and “a continuation of Hollandisme”. This he refuses to countenance. Only the electorate can decide an election and he intends to fight on, with “the support of my family, the support of my political family and in the name of four million right-wing voters” who participated in the primary.</p>
<p>Looked at one way, then, the decision to postpone his visit to the Salon might have been a simple expedient to avoid news of the dates of the hearing breaking while he was in no position to respond to them. But looked at from another angle, given the feverish activity at his HQ, it could well have been yet another poorly managed attempt to shake out any doubters, a ridiculous game of stare out. </p>
<p>As it is, the press conference has led to Fillon losing Bruno Le Maire, his foreign affairs spokesman, on the grounds that despite promises that if he were indicted he would step down, Fillon has gone back on his word. According to some sources, Le Maire was the only voice calling for Fillon to stand down in favour of Juppé. And later today, the Union des Démocrates et Indépendants, Les Républicains’ centre-right allies, will decide if they will continue to support Fillon. </p>
<p>If it was nothing more than an attempt to put himself back in the spotlight, then it worked, for a few hours at least. And at least it meant Fillon didn’t have to bump into Macron across a cow’s rear quarters. (Fillon later announced he would go to the show in the afternoon.)</p>
<p>Fillon has made it clear that his candidature is not negotiable and that he intends to fight on till the end. It could well be a bitter one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73877/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When the presidential candidate pulled out of an important photo opportunity, everyone thought he was quitting the race.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/725242017-02-23T04:03:40Z2017-02-23T04:03:40Z2017 could be a turning point for European integration – but not in the way you think<p>There can be little doubt that this year’s elections in Germany and France may determine the future of the European Union. </p>
<p>For nearly a decade now, the EU has been facing unprecedented challenges, from the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/22/seven-changes-needed-to-save-the-euro-and-the-eu">euro crisis</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/syrian-refugees-in-turkey-jordan-and-lebanon-face-an-uncertain-2017-70747">influx of migrants</a> to Brexit and the rise of nationalism. On their own, any one of these crises could threaten the cohesion of the union; together they represent an existential threat. </p>
<p>But the tide could yet turn. Depending on the outcomes of the French and German elections, 2017 could actually be the start a more integrated and unified Europe.</p>
<h2>The rise of Emmanuel Macron</h2>
<p>France is facing one of its most fascinating election in recent history. Former prime minister François Fillon, a traditional conservative, looked likely to win power. But an embarrassing <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/fillons-troubles-deepen-as-penelopegate-probe-continues/">corruption scandal</a> involving the employment of his wife Penelope has significantly dented his chances. </p>
<p>The Socialist candidate, Benoît Hamon, is highly unlikely to make it far. Having won the socialist primary on a very left-wing platform, it will be difficult for him to reach beyond his core group of supporters. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-advances-in-poll-as-riots-heighten-security-fears-national-front/">Leading the polls</a> is Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right Front National, who is running on a populist, eurosceptic, anti-immigrant platform. Le Pen is projected to win the first round of voting on April 23, but she is most likely to be knocked out in the second round, where 50% of voters are required to win.</p>
<p>The man who defeats Le Pen in the May 7 second round may not come from either of France’s main parties. Emmanuel Macron is now one of the favourites to win the elections.</p>
<p>Macron’s political success has come incredibly fast. An unknown three years ago, he is now on track of possibly becoming the youngest president of the Fifth Republic, at age 39. </p>
<p>As a minister, Macron was vocally pro-business, in conflict with the classical tenets of the French left: he <a href="http://www.economiematin.fr/news-emmanuel-macron-uber-pas-interdit-paris-delville">defended Uber</a>, the <a href="https://www.service-public.fr/professionnels-entreprises/actualites/A10025">opening of shops on Sunday</a> and the reduction of the costs to terminate labour contracts. He became very popular with the French public while finding himself at loggerheads with many figures of the ruling Socialist party. </p>
<p>In August 2016 he <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2016/08/30/en-direct-emmanuel-macron-va-quitter-le-gouvernement_4989938_823448.html">quit the government</a> and launched a presidential bid as an independent. Half a year later, he has transformed his initial political start-up into a political movement, <em>En Marche</em> (Forward), with <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2017/02/04/french-presidential-rock-star-emmanuel-macron-wows-crowds">political rallies</a> that attract thousands. </p>
<p>His strength comes from the match between his discourse and French voters’ desire for change. His left-liberal political position would not be unusual in many Northern European countries, but in France it is a novelty. Nearly 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the French left has not adapted to economic modernity. Facing the competition of a strong Communist Party in postwar France, the Socialist Party maintained a traditionally anti-capitalist position. This ideological position has often been disconnected from social-liberal policies adopted once in government. </p>
<p>By seizing on these contradictions and crossing the left-right divide, Macron has thrived. His novel political platform is <a href="http://vision-macron.fr/">characterised</a> by an economic liberalism blended with concern for social justice and political and cultural liberalism. </p>
<p>Young, charismatic and intellectual, Macron has attracted people from both the left and the right, and drawn a lot of newcomers to politics. At the same time, political space has opened for him. Both Fillon and Hamon are hard-line candidates, leaving an spot in the centre for Macron. </p>
<p>A Macron victory would have important consequences for the EU. Unlike most French politicians, who are either shy integrationists or vocal eurosceptics, he is <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/in-london-macron-vows-to-stand-up-for-eu/">strongly pro-EU</a>; his supporters <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2017/02/04/france-emmanuel-macron-ramps-up-his-presidential-bid-in-lyon">cheer for Europe</a> in political meetings. </p>
<p>In January, he wrote in the Financial Times that it was time for <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3d0cc856-e187-11e6-9645-c9357a75844a">Europeans to become sovereign</a>. This stance could end French opposition to deeper political integration.</p>
<p>The election of Marine Le Pen would lead to the unravelling of the EU, but if France chooses Macron, the union will get a significant boost from one of its core members.</p>
<h2>Germany: a new hope for the SPD</h2>
<p>The other key country in holding the EU together is of course Germany, which goes to the polls on September 24. Angela Merkel, of the Christian Democratic Union, is running for her fourth term as chancellor.</p>
<p>Hoping to dislodge Merkel from the Bundestag is Martin Schulz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD). In January, the none-too-popular Sigmar Gabriel <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/sigmar-gabriel-wont-challenge-angela-merkel-for-chancellorship-media/">made way for Schulz</a> to become the part’s lead candidate. </p>
<p>Schulz is a rarity in European politics, having made his career in the EU before vying for a top national position. A member of the European Parliament since 1994, Schulz was its president from 2012 to January 2017.</p>
<p>There, he helped stage a political coup that dramatically shifted the balance of EU institutions, transferring power from the Head of States (Council) to the Parliament, and through it to European voters. </p>
<p>In 2010, the Party of European Socialists decided to <a href="https://euobserver.com/political/122004">name a leading candidate</a> to become the president of the European Commission in case of victory at the 2014 European elections, and chose Schulz. But the European elections in May 2014 <a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/elections2014-results/en/election-results-2014.html">did not deliver a clear majority</a>. </p>
<p>Schulz could have tried to form a majority on the left, but he instead <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/eu-rival-schulz-issues-support-for-juncker-presidency/a-17680689">supported a cross-bench motion</a> from the European Parliament stating that conservative candidate Jean-Claude Juncker was the winner of the election and that he had to be nominated. </p>
<p>Schulz understood the political game he was facing. The Council wanted to keep nominating the president, and the lack of a clear majority gave it the opportunity to propose another candidate. Schulz’s decision to withdraw gave the Parliament the upper hand instead. </p>
<p>At the time, Merkel <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/power-struggle-europts-between-european-parliament-and-eu-leaders-a-972870.html">seemed to indicate</a> that she would not support Juncker. She faced a storm of criticism in the German media and was accused of betraying the democratic promise of the election. Soon after, she caved and <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2014/06/battle-european-commission">endorsed Juncker</a>. </p>
<p>Martin Schulz’s key role in this manoeuvre indicates that as chancellor he would probably leverage Germany’s power to further EU integration. It would mark a substantial change compared to Merkel, whose approach has been <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21579144-germanys-vision-europe-all-about-making-continent-more-competitive-merkel">to take as few steps as necessary</a> and to protect German finances before all. </p>
<h2>Deeper integration</h2>
<p>Could Macron or Schulz have an impact on European integration? Most likely.</p>
<p>Many factors in the current context are pushing in that direction. Politically, the lack of accountability and transparency of decisions at the European level is feeding a rise of nationalism; that threatens many European governments. </p>
<p>Geopolitically, we are witnessing both a <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21709028-how-contain-vladimir-putins-deadly-dysfunctional-empire-threat-russia">resurgence of Russian military threat</a> and a withdrawal and unpredictability of the <a href="http://time.com/4676329/donald-trump-munich-security-conference-nato-europe/">US ally under Trump</a>. Economically, crises are clearly calling for better coordination.</p>
<p>But the hurdles to further integration are lower than we think. Brexit will remove from the EU the country <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/04/28/britians-departure-from-ever-closer-union-is-of-great-significance/">most opposed to closer political union</a>. Among the remaining countries, Europeans are often said to be against further integration. But this statement confuses a criticism of current institutions with a criticism of integration. </p>
<p>Eurobameter studies show year after year that <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/europe-union-brexit-eurobarometer/">EU citizens support more integration</a> in matters where nations cannot be the solution, such as defence. They also support more democracy at the European level, such as the election of the president of the European Commission.</p>
<p>A deeper political union may actually be closer than it seems. Without any treaty change required, the European Commission presidential nomination process has the potential to radically change the nature of European politics by creating a pan-European debate about European policies. </p>
<p>The only thing needed for a leap towards further political integration is for the French and German heads of state to support it. This year may just deliver that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lionel Page does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The only thing needed for Europe to leap towards further political integration is for French and German heads of state to support it.Lionel Page, Professor in Economics, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/733012017-02-20T14:49:02Z2017-02-20T14:49:02ZWhy winning the French presidential election could be a poisoned chalice<p>The 2017 presidential election won’t be the first time the French have looked out across the political landscape and seen a fractured field. In 2002, there were no fewer than 16 candidates standing in the first round of the presidential election. Back then, the field was so fractured that the Socialist prime minister <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1970421.stm">Lionel Jospin</a> was eliminated from the contest. Voters were then left with a choice between the sitting, right-wing president, Jacques Chirac, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the far right Front National (FN).</p>
<p>Of course, Chirac proceeded to <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1969902.stm">crush Le Pen</a>, 82% to 18%, in the run-off. In the process, he forced the three competing parties of the right and centre right into an electoral alliance, then a single party, the UMP, which later became the Republicans.</p>
<p>The 2002 election is regarded as a turning point in the political history of the <a href="http://www.popularsocialscience.com/2013/10/08/the-french-fifth-republic-against-all-odds/">Fifth Republic</a> (the regime created by Charles de Gaulle in 1958). Not only was the outcome unexpected, but it was the first in which the president was elected for a new five-year term (reduced from seven) shortly before elections to the lower house, the National Assembly.</p>
<p>Initially, this was a simple coincidence of the electoral calendar but it now means the French are summoned, barely a month after electing a new president, to provide him or her with a majority in the assembly. One entirely predictable consequence of this has been the relegation of national assembly elections to almost secondary status and high rates of abstention among those who didn’t vote for the new head of state.</p>
<p>It’s worth knowing this detail, because while the main focus currently is on the 2017 presidential candidates and their programmes, rallies and public utterances, and the who was paying whom and for what, behind the scenes there are also feverish negotiations going on over who will stand in the 577 constituencies in June’s assembly election. In a system where political parties are weak and prone to fragmentation, the value of the support of a potentially victorious presidential candidate is a powerful lever.</p>
<p>By the same token, experience suggests that defeated presidential candidates do not make good rallying points for their parties when the parliamentary vote rolls around. Even <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/marine-le-pen-2938">Marine Le Pen</a> could only turn her 17% of the vote in the 2012 presidential election into two seats in the assembly – neither of them for her. Le Pen’s success between then and now has come through the intervening local and European elections – and these have been as much about rejecting Hollandisme as they are an endorsement of her.</p>
<p>So far, there are five main presidential candidates in the 2017 race. They are, from left to right, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-hologram-a-family-scandal-and-a-man-on-the-march-the-french-election-just-got-really-exciting-72605">Jean-Luc Mélenchon</a> (heading a movement called La France insoumise), Benoît Hamon (for the Socialists), <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/emmanuel-macron-33770">Emmanuel Macron</a> (who has established his own movement called En Marche!), François Fillon (for the Republicans), and Le Pen (for the Front National/Rassemblement Bleu Marine).</p>
<h2>The left</h2>
<p>The ecologist Yannick Jadot may or may not run. Last week, his electors authorised him to negotiate a joint platform with Hamon and Mélenchon, which would, in due course, also cover the matter of an alliance for the general election. Hamon is receptive, but Mélenchon is not and, to be honest, never has been. Mélenchon left the Socialists in 2008, objecting to its drift towards social democracy. His singular goal, ever since, has been to destroy the party and recreate a new left under his leadership.</p>
<p>The Socialist party is straining to hold itself together. Party secretary Jean-Christophe Cambadélis has warned that anyone defecting to support Macron in the election will be expelled, and thus forfeit support if they plan to stand in the general election. Those with a strong local power base will see that as a risk they can take in the interests of backing a candidate more likely to win – but not all will.</p>
<p>The Socialist position might change, of course, if Macron is elected to the Elysée and Hamon does not get a creditable score (at least 16%) in the first round. Even though he is the party candidate, he is not its leader and if Macron made the right noises, a broad centre and left electoral alliance is not out of the question.</p>
<p>Another possibility would be a simple form of what is known as “désistement républicain”, whereby the parties of the left (though not Mélenchon) and Macronistes agree to stand down for whichever of them is better placed in a particular constituency. The circle that Macron has to square is that while he might get elected by himself, he cannot govern alone and no-one can predict how his pop-up party will fare amid the rough and tumble of a general election campaign.</p>
<h2>The right</h2>
<p>To Macron’s right, the Republican party has flipped around completely. One of the explanations for Fillon’s unexpected victory in the primary was that he paid attention to the party’s grassroots. While Nicolas Sarkozy controlled the hierarchy, his former PM focused on getting out into the provinces and holding small-scale meetings with the the rank and file. But it is precisely here that unease is strongest now.</p>
<p>While Fillon has announced his determination to fight on, even if the <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillon-scandal-is-the-once-favourite-presidential-candidate-toast-72430">formal investigation into his financial conduct</a> continues, and the party’s heavyweights have voiced solidarity, there is real concern in the constituencies that Fillon will not deliver the “alternance” (a change of majority) they expect and demand. For the Gaullist core of a movement that sees itself as the natural party of government, the prospect of five more years out of power is almost unbearable. If Fillon is eliminated, who will pick up the pieces? The failure to answer that question adequately after Sarkozy’s defeat in 2012 is just one of the reasons for Le Pen’s rise and rise.</p>
<p>And yet, while the Front National can make a pretty strong claim to be “le premier parti de France”, its position is not as strong as it might be. Despite winning 25% of the national vote in the European elections of 2014, the same in departmental elections, and 28% in the regionals in late 2015, the FN remains a leadership without much structure, few candidates and desperately short of funds. The party has more local councillors than ever before, but membership remains low. The FN is being very coy about just how many candidates it thinks it can field.</p>
<p>It is almost impossible to imagine a president elected without a majority in the assembly. It’s just as hard to imagine any other party being willing to join the FN in a coalition.</p>
<p>While a Le Pen victory in May might fit the Brexit/Trump zeitgeist, Le Pen might actually be better off losing the 2017 election. She could spend five years building a parliamentary base, which also comes with state funding on a per seat basis, and mount a challenge in 2022. If she makes the run-off and then fails to take 40% of the votes, on the other hand, it’s perfectly possible that she’ll be booted out as leader of her party.</p>
<p>However it turns out, the election to the fourth five-year presidential term risks pushing France ever deeper into an institutional turmoil than its instigators could never have imagined when they stood on the cusp of the Fifth-and-a-half Republic back in 2002. It was all supposed to be so simple.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Just a month after moving into the Élysée Palace, the new president will face the country’s parliamentary elections.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/726052017-02-07T16:13:36Z2017-02-07T16:13:36ZA hologram, a family scandal and a man on the march: the French election just got really exciting<p>Embattled presidential candidate <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillon-scandal-is-the-once-favourite-presidential-candidate-toast-72430">François Fillon</a> probably looked at the political calendar in the first week of February and thanked his lucky stars that the spotlight shifted, for a weekend at least, to other candidates in the French election race.</p>
<p>Lyon became the focus of the campaign. Nicknamed “the capital of the three Gauls”, it became the city of three candidates, as independent candidate Emmanuel Macron, far-left proposition Jean-Luc Mélenchon and far-right upsetter Marine Le Pen all rolled into town. Meanwhile, back in Paris, Benoît Hamon was being formally adopted as the socialist candidate. </p>
<h2>Macron in the middle</h2>
<p>Some have accused Macron of <a href="http://www.latribune.fr/economie/presidentielle-2017/emmanuel-macron-ou-le-populisme-d-extreme-centre-617015.html">populism</a>, pointing to his claim that he is of “neither right nor left”. He also claims to stand against “le système” – but that’s ground he shares with Mélenchon, Le Pen and, curiously, Fillon.</p>
<p>Of course they all mean different things by this. For Macron, who is standing at the head of his own movement, it means that he is not tied to any party. For Mélenchon it is shorthand for being profoundly anti-globalisation and eurosceptic. When Le Pen rails against the system, she means the other parties and the Fifth Republic itself – all “designed” to exclude her. And for Fillon, it means state bureaucracy, to which he intends to take a large axe. </p>
<p>Macron is yet to produce a manifesto but 8,000 cheering supporters gathered in the hall to hear him speak in Lyon, with perhaps as many as 5,000 more watching on jumbo screens elsewhere in the complex. However, he is no more a populist than Fillon. On the day, he reiterated his commitment to a reformist, social democratic approach to the market. </p>
<p>What really sets him apart is a very clear and distinctive plea for the EU and for multiculturalism. “There is no such thing as a single French culture. There is culture in France and it is diverse,” he said during his speech. Set against the “one and indivisible secular Republic” of the left and the “roman de la nation” – a single, national history that both Fillon and Le Pen have promised to bring back into French schools – it’s a significant difference. And while populism generally offers simple fixes for complex problems, one thing that might mire Macron’s programme is precisely the detail in his proposals to reform welfare, the minimum wage and taxes.</p>
<h2>Hamon then</h2>
<p>Back in Paris, on Sunday morning, the Socialists prepared to formally endorse Hamon following his victory in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/benoit-hamon-wins-french-socialist-nomination-as-party-sees-a-reassuring-bump-in-the-polls-72139">party primary</a>. There had been some scepticism about him but, in the end, the ceremony passed off without a hitch (although some high profile names were absent, including former presidential candidate Ségolène Royal).</p>
<p>Hamon has his party’s favour now largely as a result of his showing in opinion polls since winning the primary. The party is by no means out of the woods, but he is polling at 16-17%, which of course doesn’t mean victory by any stretch of the imagination, but is considerably less embarrassing than previous results.</p>
<h2>Monsieur Hologramme</h2>
<p>Hamon’s success has been a setback for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. A former member of the Socialist party, he opposed the party’s decision to support the European constitution in 2005 and left in 2009 to set up his own Parti de Gauche.</p>
<p>A candidate in 2012, with the support of the Communists (PCF), Mélenchon was something of a surprise package. Anti-globalisation and profoundly eurosceptic, he promised to spend that campaign making life unbearable for Le Pen. He made a strong showing at the start of the campaign before losing out in the first round of the election. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Mélenchon’s magic trick.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mélenchon’s fortunes have fluctuated since, but the rejection of Hollandisme within the left gave him enough encouragement to announce that he would be a 2017 candidate as early as February 2016. The PCF hesitated and, in the autumn of 2016, even rejected supporting Mélenchon and his <a href="http://www.jlm2017.fr/">La France Insoumise</a> movement, before figuring that it had no alternative. Hamon’s rise in the polls, has given them some sense of satisfaction and belief that they may not have to support Mélenchon after all.</p>
<p>Mélenchon’s task on February 5, then, was to take back the initiative, which he did it in striking fashion by appearing in two places at the same time – in Lyon in person and in Paris in hologram form.</p>
<p>His two-hour speech was high on the rhetoric of resistance and saw him attack, by turns, Macron for his social democracy, Fillon for promising reforms that will do little for low earners, and Le Pen for being Le Pen. Hamon, by contrast, was spared, since that relationship remains a work in progress.</p>
<p>One question that remains regarding Mélenchon’s policies of raising the basic wage and other welfare increases and improvements is how he plans to pay for it all. On Sunday, Mélenchon answered the question by <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/elections-presidentielle-legislatives-2017/2017/02/05/melenchon-a-lyon-et-a-paris-et-la-mort-et-la-betise-combien-ca-coute_1546484">rejecting it</a>: “No one puts a price on stupidity, or death”. Quite so, Jean-Luc …</p>
<h2>Le Pen’s top 144 suggestions</h2>
<p>For her part, Le Pen’s speech rounded off a weekend of events that had started on Saturday with her presenting her 144 propositions for France. Of course, no one has read them all and very few people will, but they are summed up under seven promises of a France that will be “free, safe, prosperous, fair, proud, powerful and enduring”.</p>
<p>What this means in concrete terms is jettisoning the Schengen agreement, rejecting multiculturalism, reinforcing secularism in public spaces (shorthand for bans on Muslim dress), protectionism, the introduction of school uniforms and revising the history curriculum in schools (both policies she shares with Fillon), and making overtime tax-free (an idea that the Sarkozy-Fillon government introduced between 2007 and 2012). At the bottom of it all, however, lies a fundamental commitment to Frexit: to leave the eurozone and the EU.</p>
<p>Two posters from the weekend sum up Le Pen’s campaign. One promises to “put France back in order in five years”. Another tells the story of a mother, living in a car with her five-year-old son, or a retired farmer living off a pittance: “Alas for Sandra/Pierre, they are not migrants.”</p>
<p>Most of the main candidates for 2017 are now in place. François Bayrou, the veteran centrist, has still to announce whether he will stand. And despite a press conference on the evening of Monday February 6 at which Fillon presented his mea culpa but promised to fight on, there are still doubts that he can see the contest out. It is not clear what effect, if any, the announcement that Nicolas Sarkozy will face charges over the funding of his 2012 campaign (the so-called Bygmalion Affair) will have on Fillon or any of the others.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72605/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After a big weekend of campaign launches, most candidates are now in place for the 2017 presidential race.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/724302017-02-03T13:33:51Z2017-02-03T13:33:51ZFrançois Fillon scandal: is the once-favourite presidential candidate toast?<p>French presidential candidate François Fillon has landed himself in a spot of bother, just months ahead of the election he is due to contest for the Republican party. After his surprising but impressive victory in the right-wing primary in November, Fillon seemed a shoo-in for the Elysée Palace, but then came revelations about him employing members of his family. He’s now a candidate in crisis. </p>
<p>The trouble all started on Wednesday January 25, when, with perfect and deliberate timing, the satirical weekly magazine Le Canard enchainé <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/elections-presidentielle-legislatives-2017/2017/01/31/marc-joulaud-trop-fidele-lieutenant_1545434">published an article</a> claiming that Fillon’s wife Penelope had worked for her husband as his parliamentary assistant between 1998 and 2002. It said she had earned somewhere between €3,000 and €4,000 a month before going on to work for Fillon’s replacement, Marc Joulaud, from 2002 to 2007 (when Fillon became a government minister) at an increased rate of more than €7,000.</p>
<p>There is nothing in the law to prohibit deputies or senators employing members of their families as parliamentary assistants. Indeed many do. They have a fixed allowance to employ whatever assistants they need and they, not parliament, are regarded as the employer. But the job must be real.</p>
<p>Therein lay the problem. During his party’s primary campaign, Fillon had made capital of the fact that, unlike certain candidates (meaning his main rival Nicolas Sarkozy but also president François Hollande), he had always kept his private life private. His wife stayed out of the spotlight and played no part in his political career. The Welsh-born Penelope showed little enthusiasm to appear in public with her husband even when he won the primary. Something did not quite add up.</p>
<p>Le Canard enchaîné went on to claim that no-one at the National Assembly could remember her working there. Worse, <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/elections-presidentielle-legislatives-2017/2017/01/26/fillon-touche-dans-son-integrite_1544341">Christine Kelly</a>, author of the only authorised biography of Fillon, said she had never come across any evidence that Mme Fillon played any role as a parliamentary assistant.</p>
<p>Fillon was quick to respond. Live on French TV news on the evening of January 26 he said his wife’s work was largely carried out in his parliamentary constituency in the Sarthe, central France. In what he may have thought looked like an act of good faith, he added that when he left government and became a senator (2005-2007), he had employed his two eldest children to work for him. He <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/01/27/affaire-penelope-francois-fillon-contre-attaque_5069881_4854003.html">defended that choice</a> on the grounds that they were lawyers and therefore qualified to do the specialised work he required of them.</p>
<p>Except the Canard <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/elections-presidentielle-legislatives-2017/2017/01/31/les-fillon-une-famille-en-or_1545437">went on to report</a> that neither of them had, at that point, qualified as lawyers. And the sums they were said to be earning were certainly impressive for students in their early twenties, at €3,800 and €4,800 per month (before tax). Again, there is nothing illegal in this. Many doctoral students specialising in politics and history work as parliamentary assistants – but probably not at those rates. </p>
<h2>Losing ground</h2>
<p>Fillon supporters wanted some sort of explanation. The affair was already having an impact in the <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/01/29/35003-20170129ARTFIG00205-francois-fillon-fait-front-et-remobilise-son-camp.php">opinion polls</a>, with Fillon dropping behind far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and worryingly close to leftist upstart Emmanuel Macron.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the parquet national financier, the branch of the French judiciary responsible for investigating misuse of public funds, had swung into action the day the allegations were published. On Monday 30 – with the permission of the speaker – police raided the National Assembly. The same afternoon, they interviewed the Fillons, separately.</p>
<p>Despite support for Fillon from party heavyweights, the affair was beginning to have an impact on public opinion. Various polls showed that many voters thought Fillon would not, or should not, continue to stand in the presidential election. It was not just that Fillon may or may not have done something wrong, but also that he had played the “honest man” card while surreptitiously stretching the rules.</p>
<p>And even if what he had done was legal, it hardly played well against his manifesto promises of more austerity, welfare reductions and cutting 500,000 jobs in public services. Suddenly, the emphasis Fillon had placed on family values took on a very different meaning.</p>
<h2>Switching up?</h2>
<p>In the background, <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/elections-presidentielle-legislatives-2017/2017/02/01/fillon-le-parti-lr-proche-de-la-rupture_1545705">individual Republican parliamentarians</a> were becoming increasingly uneasy with the candidate. Fillon <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/elections-presidentielle-legislatives-2017/2017/02/01/francois-fillon-a-ses-troupes-on-a-quinze-jours-a-tenir_1545539">met the party rank and file</a> on the morning of Wednesday February 1 and promised them that the whole matter would be cleared up within a fortnight. He was perhaps confident that he had been able to provide investigators with convincing evidence to have the matter dropped. However, on the same morning, Le Canard enchaîné publicly stated that it was sticking by its original story and publishing further allegations that Penelope Fillon had in fact been her husband’s parliamentary assistant since 1988.</p>
<p>If Fillon had thought he could see out the storm, matters took a turn for the worse the next day when France 2 announced that it had found a copy of a video of a <a href="http://tvmag.lefigaro.fr/programme-tv/comment-envoye-special-a-decroche-les-nouvelles-revelations-de-l-affaire-fillon_c7365100-e880-11e6-949d-97e4c61b01f7/">2007 interview</a> with Penelope in which she said she had never been her husband’s assistant. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Penelope Fillon says she has never been her husband’s assistant.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The same evening, speaking to an enthusiastic crowd of a thousand supporters at Charleville-Mezières in the north-east of France, Fillon slammed his left-wing opponents and the Paris-based media “microcosme” for obsessing over the story.</p>
<p>But party leaders have begun to look at a plan B. Gérard Larcher, the Filloniste speaker of the Senate, has been charged with finding an alternative candidate for the Republicans. Asked very soon after the story broke if he would be willing stand, <a href="https://theconversation.com/french-election-2017-meet-the-candidates-69436">Alain Juppé</a>, who crashed out of the primary at an earlier stage than expected, was categorical in his refusal. But if Fillon does withdraw, that might change.</p>
<p>Other names have been mooted. Perhaps François Baroin, a former minister and senator-mayor of Troyes, a longstanding Filloniste touted as a candidate for 2022, or Laurent Wauquiez or Xavier Bertrand – again, men who have mostly been on the shortlist for the next campaign. And what price Nicolas Sarkozy? With only a few weeks until the first round of voting in the election, the Republicans need to <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/02/02/35003-20170202ARTFIG00309-les-reflexions-s-accelerent-autour-du-plan-b.php">move quickly</a> if they are going to replace Fillon.</p>
<p>The other candidates have remained relatively circumspect regarding Fillon’s problems. Le Pen has her own troubles, concerning some <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2017/02/01/marine-le-pen-refuse-de-rembourser-300-000-euros-reclames-par-le-parlement-europeen_5072484_823448.html">€300,000</a> she has been ordered to (and is refusing to) repay the European parliament following an accusation that she misspent the funds by using European money to pay party staff working on French matters. </p>
<p>The various characters on the left are too busy trying to work out their own relationship – and Macron sees no capital to be made in attacking Fillon. In any case, they really do not need to get involved. The French right, once described by Fillon’s late political mentor Philippe Séguin as “<a href="http://www.liberation.fr/france/1998/04/29/la-grosse-gaffe-de-la-droite-la-plus-bete-du-monde-le-rpr-a-repris-un-dessin-d-asterix-sans-demander_234244">the stupidest right in the world</a>” might be on the point of <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/02/02/35003-20170202ARTFIG00229-au-fn-on-attend-l-implosion-des-republicains-avec-impatience.php">implosion</a>, all by itself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72430/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The former PM stands accused of employing his wife for years without bothering to mention it to voters.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/707972017-01-05T07:30:27Z2017-01-05T07:30:27ZTerrorism, the far-right and Russian meddling: the biggest threats to Europe in 2017<p>The European Union endured a series of political shocks and strains in 2016 that threatened to tear the bloc apart: an ongoing <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38420779">migration crisis</a>; the United Kingdom’s vote in June to <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/topics/brexit-9976">exit the union</a>; lacklustre growth and <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Unemployed_persons,_in_millions,_seasonally_adjusted,_EU-28_and_EA-19,_January_2000_-_October_2016_.png">stubbornly high unemployment</a> in the eurozone; terrorist attacks that killed and injured scores; and surging support for populist and anti-EU political parties.</p>
<p>Against this recent history, there can be no doubt that 2017 will be one of the most important and fateful years in the EU’s six-decade history.</p>
<p>There are five acute dangers facing the EU in 2017. These are not isolated challenges. Instead, they are intertwined and mutually reinforcing. Addressing one of them would be a formidable test. That all five are happening simultaneously presents an unparalleled trial for European leaders.</p>
<h2>The rise of the far-right</h2>
<p>Voters in France, the Netherlands, Germany, and possibly Italy will vote in national elections in 2017. Populist, anti-EU parties are expected to perform strongly in all four contests.</p>
<p>France’s presidential election is likely to pit former prime minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/french-election-2017-everything-you-need-to-know-about-francois-fillon-69576">François Fillon</a> and nominee of the centre-right Republicans against <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-marine-le-pen-could-become-the-next-french-president-68765">Marine Le Pen</a>, leader of the far-right National Front, in the second round of voting in May.</p>
<p>Support for the National Front has surged in recent years. In the 2012 presidential election, Le Pen received <a href="http://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/conseil-constitutionnel/francais/les-decisions/acces-par-date/decisions-depuis-1959/2012/2012-152-pdr/communique-de-presse.108522.html">less than 18% of the vote</a>, failing to make it to the second round runoff. But recent polls show her receiving as much as <a href="http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/rapport_cevipof_-_eef2017_vague_9_decembre_2016_ipsos_le_monde.pdf">24% of the vote</a> in the first round this year.</p>
<p>While <a href="http://www.ifop.fr/media/poll/3576-1-study_file.pdf">polls</a> suggest that a Le Pen victory is unlikely (current forecasts show Fillon getting 65% of the votes to Le Pen’s 35% in the second round), following a year of electoral surprises — from Brexit to Donald Trump’s triumph in the US presidential election – it would be foolish to write Le Pen off completely.</p>
<p>In the Netherlands, polls show the anti-immigration, anti-EU Party for Freedom <a href="http://www.ioresearch.nl/home/nieuws/artmid/445/articleid/820/pvv-stijgt-door-groenlinks-grootste-op-links#.WG1Z7rSppFJ">in the lead</a> ahead of parliamentary elections in March. Party leader Geert Wilders proposes the <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/far-right-dutch-politician-backs-mosques-koran-ban-islamic-schools/">closure of mosques</a> in the Netherlands, as well as a Dutch exit from the EU.</p>
<p>In Germany, for the first time since the end of World War II, the far-right could make substantial electoral gains in parliamentary elections, likely to be held in September. The Alternative for Germany party is currently <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/support-for-2017-merkel-chancellorship-surges-survey/a-36700305">polling around 13%</a>, virtually ensuring that it will clear the 5% threshold and attain representation in Germany’s federal parliament.</p>
<p>German Chancellor Angela Merkel remains popular, and her Christian Democratic Union party <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/support-for-2017-merkel-chancellorship-surges-survey/a-36700305">leads comfortably</a> in the polls. But her decision to allow more than a million migrants into Germany last year has been attacked from all sides of the political spectrum, and her position could be weakened further if there are additional terror attacks in Germany, following <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/04/berlin-christmas-market-attack-tunisian-man-aged-26-detained">the truck attack</a> on a Berlin Christmas market in December 2016, which killed 12 people.</p>
<h2>Terrorism</h2>
<p>The Christmas market attack in Berlin showed that Europe remains vulnerable to terrorist violence. </p>
<p>According to Europol, the EU’s law enforcement agency, <a href="https://www.europol.europa.eu/activities-services/main-reports/european-union-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-te-sat-2016">151 people died</a> from terrorist attacks in the EU in 2015, and a further 360 were injured. The same year, there were more than 200 failed, foiled, or completed terrorist attacks in EU member states, and more than 1,000 people were arrested on terrorism-related charges. </p>
<p>These trends continued in 2016. Scores have been killed and hundreds more injured in attacks in <a href="https://theconversation.com/brussels-terror-attacks-a-continent-wide-crisis-that-threatens-core-european-ideals-56723">Belgium</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36800730">France</a>, and Germany. French police <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/world/europe/france-terrorist-attack-arrests.html">arrested five Islamic State operatives</a> in Strasbourg and Marseilles suspected of planning an “imminent” attack.</p>
<p>Europol estimates that as many as <a href="https://www.europol.europa.eu/activities-services/main-reports/european-union-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-te-sat-2016">5,000 Europeans</a> have gone to fight in Syria or Iraq, and hundreds have returned home. Many others across Europe have become radicalised online or by local recruiters. They have formed <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-local-terrorist-cells-make-a-mockery-of-european-security-56698">terrorist cells</a> across the continent, lying dormant but capable of planning, financing, and executing deadly attacks.</p>
<p>As a result, many Europeans <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/immigration-and-terrorism-are-europeans-biggest-fears/">fear that terrorist violence</a> in their homelands has become the new normal. </p>
<h2>Watch out for Russia</h2>
<p>Tensions between the West and Russia are at their highest level since the end of the Cold War. Over the past several years, Russia has emerged as a much more aggressive and unpredictable power, invading and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26686949">annexing Crimea</a> in 2014 and supporting <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-separatists-idUSKCN1251UQ">separatist rebels</a> in eastern Ukraine.</p>
<p>Since 2012, Russia has been <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/24/world/asia/russia-arming.html">rapidly modernising its military</a>, making it a much more formidable threat to European and NATO defence planners. Russia is building and expanding bases in the Arctic, has made big increases to its military budget, conducted several large-scale military exercises that simulate war with NATO, deployed its military in foreign conflicts such as Syria, stationed nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad region bordering Poland and Lithuania, and upgraded its military equipment. Russian fighter planes also regularly enter or skirt the airspace of NATO countries.</p>
<p>European and NATO military planners worry that Russia might seek to expand its power and influence in the Baltic states. A recent <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RR1253/RAND_RR1253.pdf">war-gaming exercise</a> from the Rand Corporation showed that Russia could seize one of the Baltic capitals within 60 hours.</p>
<p>Following revelations that Russia had <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/12/politics/russian-hack-donald-trump-2016-election/">interfered</a> in this year’s US presidential election, signs indicate that it may try to do the same in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/19/opinion/russian-meddling-and-europes-elections.html">European elections this year</a>. In an attempt to destabilise or disorient Europe, Russia is pursuing a <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/italys-most-popular-political-party-is-leading-europe-in-fak?utm_term=.xfW2e540xd#.vnRDxE3pBY">disinformation and propaganda campaign</a> intended to bolster politicians and political parties sympathetic to Russia and its interests in Eastern Europe.</p>
<p>Russia has also <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/24/world/europe/intent-on-unsettling-eu-russia-taps-foot-soldiers-from-the-fringe.html?ref=europe&_r=0">cultivated</a> a number of fringe or extremist political groups across Europe, such as the far-right Jobbik party in Hungary and the National Front in France.</p>
<h2>A new migration crisis</h2>
<p>Following a controversial agreement reached between the EU and Turkey last March, the number of migrants reaching Europe dropped dramatically in 2016. According to the <a href="http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php#_ga=1.115021379.515151528.1483001885">UN refugee agency</a>, 359,000 migrants and refugees reached Europe in 2016 — down from more than a million in 2015 – with Italy now the top destination.</p>
<p>But the EU deal with Turkey appears on the verge of collapse. EU-Turkish relations have become increasingly strained following <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36816045">July’s failed coup attempt</a> in Turkey, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s subsequent <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-end-of-democracy-in-turkey">crackdown on dissent</a>. Following a non-binding vote by the European Parliament in November to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/24/world/europe/european-parliament-turkey-eu-membership.html">suspend EU membership negotiations</a> with Turkey, Erdoğan <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38103375">threatened</a> to cancel the agreement and let the flow of migrants into Europe resume.</p>
<p>The United Nations estimates that <a href="http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php">2.8 million refugees</a> are currently in Turkey. An return of migration on the scale of 2015 would put significant stress on Europe’s system of open internal borders, threatening to permanently undo one of the EU’s signature achievements.</p>
<h2>A teetering eurozone</h2>
<p>For almost a decade now, the eurozone has been in a near-permanent state of crisis. Far from ushering in a period of greater political unity and economic integration in Europe, the euro has introduced new grievances and inequalities among the countries that use it.</p>
<p>Fed up with austerity, tepid economic growth, and an unemployment rate of <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/section/social-europe-jobs/news/eurozone-unemployment-falls-below-10/">just below 10%</a> in the eurozone, which is much higher for young workers, many Europeans have become disenchanted with the single currency. Across the 19 countries that use the euro, only 56% of respondents in a <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/articles/pdf/fl_446_en.pdf">recent poll</a> said it was “a good thing” for their country, down five points from last year. Only 41% of Italians polled thought the euro was good for Italy.</p>
<p>The European Commission’s <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/eeip/pdf/ip038_en.pdf">Autumn 2016 economic forecast</a> warned that “uncertainties and vulnerabilities” in the European economy remain “large and widespread”. Greece is in a veritable economic depression. Its economy has <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-greece-bailout-20161205-story.html">shrunk by more than a quarter</a> since 2010 and 23% of its available workforce is <a href="https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z8o7pt6rd5uqa6_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:el:es:it&hl=en&dl=en">unemployed</a>. Italy’s economy is smaller than it was a decade ago, and its national debt stands at <a href="https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=italian%20debt%20130%25%20gdp">more than 130% of GDP</a>.</p>
<p>Italian banks — hobbled by <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a24a20e2-b711-11e6-961e-a1acd97f622d">€360 billion of bad loans</a> and a weak national economy — are in desperate need of recapitalisation. <em>Monte dei Paschi di Siena</em>, Italy’s third biggest bank, <a href="http://tools.eba.europa.eu/interactive-tools/2016/maptool/atlas.html">flunked the European stress test</a> on financial institutions in July, ranking last of the 51 banks tested. </p>
<p>The failed referendum on constitutional reforms in December 2016 presented a further dose of economic and political uncertainty for the eurozone’s third-biggest economy. Italy’s anti-establishment, anti-euro Five Star Movement is currently polling <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election">neck-and-neck</a> with the Democratic Party, still led by Matteo Renzi, who resigned as prime minister after the referendum. </p>
<p>Parliamentary elections <a href="http://europe.newsweek.com/italian-president-calls-electoral-rules-elections-537582?rm=eu">could be held</a> as early this year. The Five Star Movement advocates a <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-5-star-movement-calls-for-euro-referendum-1466596802">non-binding national referendum</a> to determine whether Italy should abandon the euro.</p>
<p>One country’s exit from the eurozone could set in motion an unravelling of the entire currency area. The political fallout from the economic pain and uncertainty that would result would be immense.</p>
<h2>End of an era?</h2>
<p>The European project of political and economic integration has been one the greatest achievements in modern history. For decades, it has brought peace and prosperity to a continent shattered by cycles of war, economic turmoil, and political extremism.</p>
<p>But European integration has never proceeded in a linear manner. For much of its history, the EU has stumbled through one crisis after another. As Jean Monnet, one of the founding fathers of European integration, <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/24/the-failure-of-the-euro">said</a>, “I have always believed that Europe would be built through crises, and that it would be the sum of their solutions.”</p>
<p>But Monnet also said that solutions had to be intelligently proposed and skillfully applied. That is the challenge that confronts European leaders today: can they apply the right solutions to Europe’s present troubles? They must show citizens that the EU can help address the current difficulties, rather than making them worse. Otherwise, the very future of the union may be at risk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70797/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Maher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The future of Europe hangs in the balance. Will its leaders step up?Richard Maher, Research Fellow, Global Governance Programme, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/694362016-12-02T14:48:19Z2016-12-02T14:48:19ZFrench election 2017: meet the candidates<p>To the surprise of many, <a href="https://theconversation.com/french-election-2017-everything-you-need-to-know-about-francois-fillon-69576">François Fillon</a> has won a landslide victory to become the right-wing candidate for France’s 2017 presidential election. He won the first round of the republican primary with more than 44% of the vote. He then went on to beat former front runner Alain Juppé in the second round by a resounding margin.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147970/original/image-20161129-10957-1fircet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147970/original/image-20161129-10957-1fircet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147970/original/image-20161129-10957-1fircet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147970/original/image-20161129-10957-1fircet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=871&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147970/original/image-20161129-10957-1fircet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1095&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147970/original/image-20161129-10957-1fircet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1095&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147970/original/image-20161129-10957-1fircet.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1095&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fillon has been confirmed as the Republican candidate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The polls failed to see it coming, which only adds to the growing list of mistakes made in the past few months by the diviners of electoral results. It seems that polls are no longer able to predict, even within a reasonable margin of error, how much voters are ready to back their candidates.</p>
<p>Fillon represents the interests of the Catholic middle classes, concerned about advances in gay rights and the interests of big business, as an adamant defender of the free market and an advocate for a minimal state. A former minister under Jacques Chirac and prime minister under Sarkozy, Fillon is firmly enshrined in the establishment.</p>
<p>The socialists are in dire situation. The outgoing president, François Hollande, has decided not to run for re-election. Surely his abysmal popularity ratings, descending to an all time low of <a href="http://www.france24.com/en/mediawatch/20161025-record-low-hollande-with-4-approval-rating">4% approval</a>, had a part to play in his withdrawal. Had he ran, he would have been the only potential candidate predicted to lose if he were to face the far right’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/marine-le-pen-2938">Marine Le Pen</a> in the second round of the election.</p>
<p>The current prime minister, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/28/french-left-facing-collective-suicide-presidential-elections/">Manuel Valls</a>, fares little better. If Valls wins the nomination of the left-wing primary in January, he is predicted to come dangerously close to losing the second round against Le Pen.</p>
<p>That could become irrelevant if the socialists fail to even make it to the second round of the election – as happened in 2002. If the contest was then one of right versus extreme right, Fillon would be more likely to emerge victorious as left-wing voters would opt for him over Le Pen. But if Le Pen faces a candidate from the left, it is doubtful that a majority of right-wing voters would return the favour and vote for the left.</p>
<p>If the independent socialist <a href="http://www.lepoint.fr/politique/jean-luc-melenchon-sera-le-candidat-du-pcf-26-11-2016-2085982_20.php">Jean-Luc Mélenchon</a>, another anti-establishment candidate, does slightly better in the first round of the election than the 11% of the vote he is credited with, he could overtake Fillon and face Le Pen in the second round. France would then have to choose between a former Trotskyist and the leader of the extreme right. A Marxist president, however unlikely, would be the truly unthinkable result of a surreal election.</p>
<h2>Macron on the march</h2>
<p>But the challenge could equally come from the centre left. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c8d7825a-a72f-11e6-8b69-02899e8bd9d1">Emmanuel Macron</a> has been polling extremely well – some even put him in second place behind Le Pen. Macron was, until recently, Hollande’s finance minister but resigned to strike out alone as an independent presidential candidate at the head of his own political movement. He is both a member of the establishment and an upstart. </p>
<p>Macron could gather votes from the socially-progressive centrists for whom Fillon is too conservative, and from disappointed socialist voters who would not vote (again) for Hollande. Both would compete for the economically liberal right, as their economic programmes are difficult to distinguish at this stage.</p>
<p>But against Le Pen, Macron will be perceived as a candidate of the establishment, and recent anti-establishment votes around the world cast a long shadow over this possibility. A Macron-Le Pen second round would resemble the recent US election, where a centre-left candidate with strong finance ties struggled to compete against the rhetoric of a populist leader. </p>
<p>If the second round of the presidential election in May 2017 is a contest between left and right, there is a real possibility that the next president of France will be the head of a party that was once openly in admiration of Hitler. Many argue that Le Pen has since purged the Front National of its most undesirable elements, but the nationalist, protectionist, and mythico-religious roots of the party are largely intact. The ideals are clear, if contradictory. The plan is to make France great again, a militarily powerful, white, Catholic nation that uses French francs and tolerates no challenge to its secularist republic, either from European bureaucrats or from Muslim women wearing veils.</p>
<p>The polls failed to see Fillon coming and it is at least conceivable that Le Pen will do much better in the election than they predict. We’ve seen that the rules of the game can change. Recent events in Britain and the US are proof that it is perfectly possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69436/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Devellennes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s a large field of hopefuls for the first round, but they all need to be able to take on Marine Le Pen.Charles Devellennes, Lecturer in Political and Social Thought, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/695762016-11-29T16:27:51Z2016-11-29T16:27:51ZFrench election 2017: everything you need to know about François Fillon<p>The arrival of <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillon-is-the-man-to-take-on-le-pen-in-frances-2017-presidential-race-69506">François Fillon</a> as the right-wing Republican candidate in France’s 2017 election (let’s not pretend it was between centre and right – there were no centre candidates for the nomination), may have come as a surprise to some, but his campaign has been a long time coming.</p>
<p>He has been greeted as Mr Nobody but he has had a long career in politics – and a long history with his rivals for the Republican nomination. </p>
<p>Fillon was born in 1954 in Le Mans, in the Sarthe department of France, the gateway to “le grand ouest”. His often underlined provincial conservatism is a reflection of the region’s solid values and relatively strong rates of church-going.</p>
<p>He first entered politics in the mid-1970s. As many do in France, he began as a parliamentary assistant to his local MP, the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/15/opinion/15iht-edwaller.1.5718191.html">Gaullist</a> Joël Le Theule. Le Theule had a promising ministerial career ahead of him when he died suddenly in December 1980. The following June, in the general election that followed the victory of <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/2013/11/great-deceiver-0">François Mitterrand</a> and while the rest of the country was submerged under a socialist tidal wave, Fillon was elected to his old mentor’s seat. He was the youngest member of that parliament. </p>
<p>He had joined the RPR, the Gaullist party relaunched by Jacques Chirac in 1976, but was never close to Chirac. Indeed, after the latter’s failure to defeat Mitterrand in the 1988 presidential election, Fillon was among a loose group of Young Turks known as the Rénovateurs, determined to oust the twice-beaten Chirac as party leader, though without success. </p>
<p>Despite this tension, Fillon was clearly marked out as a ministerial material. When the <a href="http://www.france-politique.fr/rassemblement-pour-la-republique.htm">RPR party’s</a> Edouard Balladur was appointed prime minister in 1993 following a right-wing general election landslide, he took on the higher education portfolio.</p>
<p>But Chirac, not Balladur, was elected president two years later. While many of Balladur’s most prominent supporters (including Nicolas Sarkozy) were shown the door by new prime minister Alain Juppé, Fillon was spared.</p>
<p>By 2002, Fillon was being mentioned as an outsider for prime minister, following Chirac’s re-election, for what was by then the <a href="http://www.france-politique.fr/union-pour-un-mouvement-populaire.htm">UMP</a>. He didn’t get the job in the end, but Chirac did give him a ministerial role, with the crucial social affairs portfolio – a post he held until 2004, when he was reshuffled to education.</p>
<p>These years in government had a fundamental impact on Fillon. He was charged with undertaking a wholesale reform of the French pensions system and of secondary education – the latter not quite coming to fruition. It was during this period that he adopted a more clearly socially conservative/neo-liberal approach.</p>
<h2>The Sarkozy years</h2>
<p>At the same time, Fillon had begun to move closer to the increasingly restless Sarkozy. When Juppé <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/dec/02/france.ameliagentleman">was banned</a> from holding elected office in 2004, the post of party president became vacant. Despite Chirac’s opposition, Sarkozy, who had never made his presidential aspirations a secret, leapt at the opportunity and Fillon supported him. In September of the same year, the two men collaborated successfully in supporting sarkozyste candidates against Chirac candidates in elections to the senate.</p>
<p>Fillon’s disaffection with Chirac was complete when he was left out of the new government led by Dominique de Villepin, in the wake of the “no” vote over the European constitution in 2005. The Sarkozy-Fillon axis was firmly cemented. </p>
<p>And yet, the relationship between the two men during Sarkozy’s presidency was not an easy one. Fillon was often exasperated by the head of state’s interventions in the day-to-day business of government (known as “hyperpresidentialism”) and by that Sarkozy’s focus on <a href="https://theconversation.com/france-loves-a-hero-but-sarkozy-must-lay-off-the-bling-this-time-31930">style over substance</a>. Sarkozy’s insistence, in his first three years in office, in having ministers from the left also grated with Fillon. Openness was one thing, but politics is politics. </p>
<p>Had he been able to afford the luxury, Sarkozy would probably have replaced Fillon in 2010, but the alternatives were unreliable and, for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, the prime minister was turning out to be more popular than the president in public opinion polls. Being prime minister was once described as “the worst job in France”, because when things went well the president took the glory, while if they went badly, the PM carried the can. Suddenly the roles had been reversed. </p>
<p>Sarkozy’s defeat in 2012 and his promise to quit politics for ever opened the door for Fillon to take over the UMP. But his way was blocked by Jean-François Copé, the general secretary of the party, in a contest that turned out to have nothing to do with policies and everything to do with personalities. The baron of the old guard (Fillon) was pitted against the energetic, rough-diamond representative of the party grassroots. </p>
<p>The result of the election will never really be known, because ballot papers went missing and the <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/11/19/ump-cope-et-fillon-revendiquent-tous-deux-la-victoire-dans-la-confusion_1792475_823448.html">whole process descended into farce</a> and bitter recriminations between the two camps. In the end, neither was appointed party president. Instead, the UMP limped on until the apparently irresistible return of Sarkozy, who in due course rebranded the UMP as <a href="http://www.republicains.fr/">Les Républicains</a>. </p>
<h2>The ultimate payback</h2>
<p>The debacle surrounding the 2012 leadership contest left Fillon and others with a deep sense that someone (Sarkozy) had been moving behind the scenes to block him. But it also filled Fillon with a deep resolve. Speaking at a rally of his supporters at the Palais de la Mutualité at the end of February 2013, he promised them that he would do everything to ensure that he was the right’s candidate at the 2017 presidential election.</p>
<p>To that end, Fillon embarked upon a painstaking process of studying reforms in other countries and going out and meeting party activists in the provinces – all the things that Sarkozy, despite taking back the leadership of the party did not do. Of all the seven candidates in the primary, <a href="http://www.liberation.fr/video/2016/11/27/la-campagne-de-francois-fillon-en-cinq-moments-cles_1531271">Fillon</a> racked up the largest number of local small-scale meetings. He spent the time talking to right-wing voters about their concerns rather than focusing, as Sarkozy did, on big rallies in areas where the Front National has done well.</p>
<p>Fillon’s strategy and tactics proved fruitful. Now Fillon has won over his own party, he needs to convince the rest of the electorate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69576/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>He’s only Mr Nobody to people who haven’t being paying attention.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/695062016-11-28T14:10:31Z2016-11-28T14:10:31ZFrançois Fillon is the man to take on Le Pen in France’s 2017 presidential race<p>And so it is decided. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38126222">François Fillon</a>, France’s mild-mannered, reflective former prime minister, will stand as the candidate for the centre-right in the 2017 French presidential elections.</p>
<p>Fillon’s meteoric rise from near obscurity to the probable future president of the republic is a timely reminder that predictions rarely ring true in politics – at least not in 2016. This is no anti-establishment figure, however. He has five years of leadership under his belt from serving as Nicolas Sarkozy’s lieutenant. But his candidacy has nevertheless stunned both supporters of Sarkozy and of Alain Juppé – the man many tipped as the favourite for the republican candidacy.</p>
<p>First, he took out Sarkozy in the first round of the primary with a shock 44% of the vote. Then he saw off Juppé in the second round, taking 66.5% of the vote to his rival’s 33.5%.</p>
<p>But Fillon now faces an uphill battle. He has won over his own party in the primary but must now convince the wider French electorate that he is the man to beat the Marine Le Pen in the presidential elections in April and May.</p>
<p>In many ways, Fillon’s policies appeal to those French people minded to support the far-right Le Pen and her Front National (FN) party. A devout Catholic and arch-conservative, Fillon believes that homosexual couples should be stripped of the right to adopt and of any access to fertility treatments. He has also praised <a href="http://www.thelocal.fr/20161127/francois-fillon-margaret-thatcher-all-you-need-to-know-about-frances-thatcher-lover-fillon">Margaret Thatcher’s</a> economic ideals. Fillon is also an outspoken critic of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/23/francois-fillon-french-right-favourite-election">the place of Islam in French society</a>, arguing that it poses a threat to French social stability.</p>
<p>Fillon will therefore seek to take on Le Pen over issues where her party has traditionally been weakest: on the economy and on foreign affairs. The Front National has no real track record of political power, apart from a handful of local councils won in the 1980s and 1990s, and the party has just two députés in the National Assembly. This means the party lacks any previous experience of managing budgets and balancing the books.</p>
<p>While this is, on the one hand, a real boost to the FN’s reputation as anti-establishment, it allows Fillon to present himself as a safe pair of hands. He wants to strip the French state down to the bare minimum to put money back in the pockets of voters. This includes attacking the sacred 35-hour working week for public servants.</p>
<h2>Eyes on the prize</h2>
<p>Like Le Pen, Fillon is a fan of Vladamir Putin and will almost certainly mirror Donald Trump’s rapprochement with the Russian leader. Yet Fillon will position himself as someone who appeals to leaders across the world, including the UK, building on his already staunch anglophile views. He is also able to lay claim to the sort of Catholic heritage that appeals to a large tranche of the centre-right electorate who might be swayed by Le Pen’s politics but who nevertheless would prefer the Gaullist model of the strong, incorruptible (male) president to be preserved. Never before has a woman been elected as president of the current fifth republic and it may well be the base issue of Fillon’s gender, as opposed to his policies, that sees him over the line in 2017.</p>
<p>Fillon will not, though, rest on his laurels. It would be deeply surprising if his campaign reflects the errors of Sarkozy’s efforts in 2012, when the incumbent president tried and failed to take on the Front National head-on over immigration and law and order. He ultimately failed to convince the electorate that he deserved a second term in office, losing to François Hollande in the second round. </p>
<p>Instead, expect Fillon to largely ignore law and order and focus instead on family morals, the economy and his experience of working with France’s European and international collaborators.</p>
<p>It would be foolish to write off Le Pen entirely in this period of deep mistrust of established parties and of economic and social fragility. But with deep divisions over the role of Islam in French society, Fillon has, and will, make the case for a softer, though nevertheless still deeply conservative, model of the right in France.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lees does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>He’s the surprise winner of the republican nomination, but Fillon is in a strong position to attack the weaknesses of the far right.David Lees, Teaching Fellow in French Studies, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/691612016-11-21T13:04:36Z2016-11-21T13:04:36ZShock loss for Sarkozy puts outsider François Fillon ahead of the pack for 2017<p>In a surprise twist, Nicolas Sarkozy has been kicked out of the race to stand in France’s 2017 presidential elections, failing even to make it to the second round of his party’s primary. </p>
<p>No-one saw this embarrassment coming, but at least the pollsters got one thing right – they predicted that a high turnout would do Sarkozy no favours. And indeed, he crashed out, a distant third, with just 20% of the vote.</p>
<p>More surprising still, and perhaps a little shocking, was the victory of Sarkozy’s sometime prime minister François Fillon, who now becomes the firm favourite ahead of a second round of voting to decide the eventual Republican candidate. </p>
<p>Fillon took 44% of the vote – a significant lead over the pre-race favourite, Alain Juppé, mayor of Bordeaux and another former prime minister.</p>
<p>The two will now go head-to-head in a vote on November 28, but it’s very difficult to see Juppé bridging the gap, especially as Sarkozy has given Fillon his support.</p>
<h2>A popular vote</h2>
<p>This is the first time that the French right has used a primary to select its candidate for the presidential election, although they were the first ones to toy with the idea, back in the 1990s. Officially billed as the primary of the right and centre, the centre parties all politely declined the invitation, on the grounds that the terms and conditions bound all the participants to supporting the eventual winner. No-one in the centre of French politics wanted to support Sarkozy if he did win. It’s not yet clear how they feel about Fillon’s runaway lead.</p>
<p>The primary runs, like many French elections, over two rounds on consecutive Sundays. As a process, it has been a more-or-less unqualified success. More than 4m people turned out to pay their two euros (to cover the costs of the elections), sign a vague pledge, and vote. For comparison, only 2.66m voted in the first round of the Socialist primary in October 2011.</p>
<p>Admittedly, there were problems handling the queues at some polling stations, especially in western Paris, just after morning mass. And running out of envelopes for voting slips in some stations suggests that the organising committee were caught short by the popularity of the process. (In French elections, voters are given individual slips of paper with each candidate’s name on them. They take these into the booth and then put the slip with their preferred candidate’s name on it into the envelope, which is then placed in the ballot box.)</p>
<h2>A popular candidate?</h2>
<p>Fillon’s extraordinary success was built around his performance across a series of three television debates between the seven candidates over the past month.</p>
<p>At the end of October, a <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2016/10/25/primaire-a-droite-alain-juppe-consolidesa-position-de-favoridans-l-enquete-electorale-du-cevipof-realisee-par-ipsos-sopra-steria-en-collaboration-avec-le-monde-nicolas-sarko_5019865_823448.html">Le Monde poll</a> put Juppé at 41%, Sarkozy at 30% and Fillon on just 12%. By the Thursday before voting, on the eve of the third debate, the gap had narrowed, though Juppé was still ahead and Fillon was gaining.</p>
<p>Even in the most extreme scenario, Juppé was projected to secure 29% to Fillon’s 28%, with <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2016/11/17/juppe-sarkozy-fillon-une-finale-a-trois-pour-la-primaire-de-la-droite_5032776_4854003.html">Sarkozy on 25%</a>.</p>
<p>By the end of the third debate, however, Fillon was looking stronger. According to an <a href="http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/elections/primaire-de-droite-fillon-juge-le-plus-convaincant-loin-devant-sarkozy__1851656.html">Elabe poll</a>, he had been the most convincing of the candidates on the night. Perhaps this is where the polls came into their own: right-wing voters may or may not have watched the debate, but they certainly picked up on the pro-Fillon vibe that was gathering momentum</p>
<p>So, why did right-wing voters plump for Fillon? He was prime minister throughout the Sarkozy presidency so if he appeals, why wouldn’t voters just plump for his boss? </p>
<p>Therein, however, lies some of Fillon’s attraction. Throughout his tenure, he remained more popular than Sarkozy and, the myth runs, reined in the worst excesses of Sarkozysme. He has experience. He also has the benefit of considerable goodwill among right-wing Catholic voters.</p>
<p>Juppé’s biggest problem has always been appearing too close to the centre ground and many electors will have been put off as a result. They will have been looking for the candidate of the right first, before sending that person out to seek support from the centre and left in a run-off against the Front National’s Marine Le Pen, if it were to come to that.</p>
<p>But Fillon is not just a marginally sterner version of Juppé. His programme includes swingeing cuts to France’s public sector. He wants to cut 500,000 state jobs (unrealistic according to Juppé) and use referendums for key reforms (populism, did you say?). He also wants a “government” for the eurozone, though what he means by this is not very clear.</p>
<p>Of course, it’s not an absolute certainty that Fillon will be confirmed as the right-wing candidate in the second round, but it is difficult to see any other outcome. It will be interesting to see how many people turn out to vote then. In 2011, the numbers for the second round of the left-wing primary actually rose. A good performance by Juppé might smoothe the more austere edges of Fillon’s programme, but there are no guarantees. It’s not a great result for Marine Le Pen, but it’s not the worst result either.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69161/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The former president has lost out to his own prime minister in the first round of the Republican primary.Paul Smith, Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.