tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/future-of-transport-12983/articlesFuture of transport – The Conversation2019-11-05T14:45:10Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1259002019-11-05T14:45:10Z2019-11-05T14:45:10ZElectric planes are here – but they won’t solve flying’s CO₂ problem<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300272/original/file-20191105-88372-17iwrfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Eviation's Alice prototype.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ian Langsdon/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK government plans to ban the sale of new conventional petrol and diesel cars <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40726868">by 2040</a>. Clearly the plan is for all citizens to be driving electric or hybrid-electric cars, or – better still – riding bicycles. But can electrification help cut emissions from that other carbon-intensive form of passenger transport, flying? </p>
<p>This is a complex question and one where size matters. It is possible for small aircraft to be powered by electricity. In fact several companies are already developing small electric aircraft and they could come on the market within <a href="https://theconversation.com/get-set-for-take-off-in-electric-aircraft-the-next-transport-disruption-114178">the next few years</a>.</p>
<p>But for the large aircraft we all use more frequently it is unlikely to happen anytime soon. The problem isn’t the propulsion technology but the energy storage. Jet fuel contains around 30 times more energy per kilogram than the most advanced lithium-ion battery currently available.</p>
<p>The world’s largest passenger plane, the Airbus A380, can fly 600 passengers 15,000 kilometres in a single flight. But, according to my calculations, with batteries it could only fly a little over 1,000 kilometres. Even if all the passengers and cargo were replaced with batteries, the range would still be less then 2,000 kilometres. To keep its current range, the plane would need batteries weighing 30 times more than its current fuel intake, meaning it would never get off the ground.</p>
<p>This trade-off is particularly bad for long-haul flights because the fuel makes up half of the aircraft’s weight at take-off. What’s more, a conventional plane gets lighter as the fuel is consumed, but an electric aircraft would have to carry the same battery weight for the entire flight. As I said, size matters. </p>
<p>For a five- to ten-seat light aircraft, fuel is likely to make up 10% to 20% of the aircraft’s weight. Simply swapping the fuel for batteries might still reduce the distance the plane can fly by an impractical amount. But replacing two or three passengers with additional batteries would give a range of 500 kilometres to 750 kilometres, compared to a fuel-powered range of over 1,000km.</p>
<h2>First commercial model</h2>
<p>However, there could be another option. Israeli firm <a href="https://www.eviation.co/alice/">Eviation</a> recently revealed a prototype version of what it claims will be the world’s first commercial all-electric passenger aircraft. The aircraft, named Alice, doesn’t just swap jet fuel for batteries but is a whole new design concept that improves the way the propulsion system is integrated into the airframe. Carrying nine passengers with a range of 1,000km, Alice is expected to enter service in 2022. </p>
<p>Alice may be a practical alternative for small, regional journeys but not for most scheduled passenger flights, even short-haul ones. So how can electrification help here? Improving battery technology is one option. A new technology known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/lithium-air-a-battery-breakthrough-explained-50027">lithium-air batteries</a> can theoretically reach the same energy density as jet fuel. However, they are still at the laboratory stage. Given the extremely safety conscious nature of the aviation industry, it is unlikely to plan future aircraft on unproven technology. </p>
<p>What we are more likely to see for short-haul flights in the next 20 to 30 years is hybrid aircraft that combine current turbofan engines with new electric propulsor systems. This more flexible hybrid system could be optimised to provide the high thrust required for take-off and the energy density needed for a long cruise.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300276/original/file-20191105-88409-1pdtrul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300276/original/file-20191105-88409-1pdtrul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300276/original/file-20191105-88409-1pdtrul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300276/original/file-20191105-88409-1pdtrul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300276/original/file-20191105-88409-1pdtrul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300276/original/file-20191105-88409-1pdtrul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300276/original/file-20191105-88409-1pdtrul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The hybrid E-Fan X.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Airbus</span></span>
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<p>This is an area being actively pursued in the <a href="https://www.airbus.com/innovation/future-technology/electric-flight/e-fan-x.html">E-FanX</a> project, which involves Airbus, Rolls-Royce and Siemens teaming up to develop a hybrid-electric propulsion flight demonstrator. Using a BAe 146 aircraft, which usually carries around 100 passengers, they plan to replace one of the aircraft’s four Honeywell turbofan engines with a propulsor fan driven by a two-megawatt electric motor. </p>
<p>In the project’s initial phases, the electricity will actually be supplied by a Rolls-Royce AE2100 gas turbine housed in the aircraft’s fuselage (main body). But the E-FanX will still be an important step in the evolution of hybrid electric technology. <a href="https://www.airbus.com/innovation/future-technology/electric-flight.html">Airbus says</a> it wants to make this technology available for 100-seat aircraft by the 2030s. </p>
<p>It’s also possible to equip a plane with multiple small electric propulsors in a so-called distributed propulsion system that is more efficient than traditional designs that use two large turbofans. This idea can be taken further by combining the separate fuselage and wings into a single “<a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/factsheets/FS-2003-11-81-LaRC.html">blended-wing-body</a>”, more efficiently integrating the propulsors with the airframe in a more aerodynamic design. This could reduce the amount of energy the aircraft would need by 20%. </p>
<p>But neither of the world’s two main aircraft manufactures, Boeing and Airbus, are actively pursuing blended wing technology. Such a major design shift has too many technical challenges <a href="https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/03/dont-look-for-commercial-bwb-airplane-any-time-soon-says-boeings-future-airplanes-head/">to make it commercially viable</a> right now. For example, most airports wouldn’t be able to accommodate a blended-wing aircraft.</p>
<h2>No alternative</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, for the type of flights most of us make there is currently no practical alternative to jet-fuelled turbofans. For this reason, the main aircraft engine manufacturers are investing heavily in improving their current engine technology. The International Air Transport Association <a href="http://www.iata.org/policy/environment">estimates that</a> each new generation of aircraft is on average 20% more fuel-efficient than the model it replaces, and that airlines will invest US$1.3 trillion in new planes over the next decade. </p>
<p>For example, Rolls-Royce’s most recent engine, the <a href="https://www.rolls-royce.com/products-and-services/civil-aerospace/airlines/trent-xwb.aspx#section-overview">Trent XWB</a> that powers the new <a href="https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/passenger-aircraft/a350xwb-family.html">Airbus A350</a>, is marketed as “the world’s most efficient large aero-engine”. Airbus claims the engine will help the A350 to achieve “25% lower operating costs, fuel burn and CO₂ emissions when compared with previous-generation aircraft”.</p>
<p>The next generation of Rolls-Royce engine, the <a href="https://www.rolls-royce.com/products-and-services/civil-aerospace/future-products.aspx#/">UltraFanTM</a>, will offer a further 20% to 25% reduction in fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions and is due to enter into service in 2025.</p>
<p>But it’s worth remembering that aviation currently contributes only 2% to 3% of global CO₂ emissions. This compares to about 30% to 35% for the whole transport sector, and another 30% to 35% for electricity generation.</p>
<p>The number of air passengers is <a href="https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2018-10-24-02.aspx">expected to double</a> over the next two decades but so are total emissions so this is unlikely to make aviation a bigger part of the problem. Reducing aviation emissions by 20% per generation of aircraft probably might not a sustainable improvement. But if hybrid aircraft are made a reality then flying really could become even less of a contributor to total emissions than it is today.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1125900">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125900/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr A D Walker BEng, PhD, CEng, MRAeS, FHEA receives funding from Aerospace Technology Institute, Innovate UK, EPSRC, EU Clean Sky 2, Rolls-Royce plc </span></em></p>Small regional flights will soon start going electric but batteries are unlikely to ever fully power large airliners.Duncan Walker, Senior Lecturer in Applied Aerodynamics, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1251732019-10-16T11:48:28Z2019-10-16T11:48:28ZDyson car: electrifying transport needs a lot more than another high-end vehicle<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297317/original/file-20191016-98661-r9rdqw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bangkok-thailand-2018-january-2-tuk-786785059?src=0bjKOAIPb5BhJbyvWVof3w-1-2">Phantomm/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>James Dyson’s decision to cancel <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50004184">his electric car project</a> in Singapore can’t have been easy. His engineering company had devoted four years and millions of pounds to the vehicle’s development but has now decided it isn’t commercially viable. Perhaps there isn’t room for another would-be Tesla to challenge the established automotive industry with a novel electric car and leapfrog the challenges of manufacturing.</p>
<p>We feel personal sympathy, as one of us (Harry) was involved in the development of a “from scratch” <a href="https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/electric-taxi-prototype-launched-motor-show">electric taxi, EVA,</a> in Singapore from 2011 to 2014. Like Dyson’s car, the design also got shelved. The lesson was that new players typically lack the capital and manufacturing expertise needed to start a car production line and compete with existing manufacturers.</p>
<p>But there’s another important conclusion to be drawn from looking at the potential market for electric vehicles, specifically focusing on Southeast Asia. It goes to the heart of why successfully developing high-end cars isn’t going to be enough to electrify personal transport when the market gives so many reasons for the incumbent fossil fuel-based system to resist.</p>
<p>The vehicle market in Singapore has a big share of rather expensive cars, but its absolute volume is dwarfed by that of almost all larger neighbouring cities. Not only do cities like Jakarta, Manila and Bangkok have many more cars registered than Singapore. They also suffer more serious air pollution from their vehicle fleet. But that wouldn’t improve much even if all cars were electrified. </p>
<p>For example, in Bangkok, only 40% of roadside primary organic aerosol (POA) pollution stems from cars. The other <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms4749#Sec7">60% comes from two-stroke engine scooters</a>, even though they use only around 10% of fuel sold. Each two-stroke engine in a scooter or three-wheeled tuk-tuk is <a href="http://discovermagazine.com/2008/may/21-two-strokes-and-youre-out">as harmful as 30 to 50 modern</a> petrol cars. This is because two-stroke engines mix lubrication oil <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/transport/engines-equipment/two-stroke6.htm">into the fuel</a>. It is the price paid for their simple construction and affordability. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296978/original/file-20191014-135495-cq8vit.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296978/original/file-20191014-135495-cq8vit.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296978/original/file-20191014-135495-cq8vit.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296978/original/file-20191014-135495-cq8vit.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296978/original/file-20191014-135495-cq8vit.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296978/original/file-20191014-135495-cq8vit.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296978/original/file-20191014-135495-cq8vit.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296978/original/file-20191014-135495-cq8vit.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">One two-stroke engine pollutes more than 30 petrol-based passenger cars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Energy Lancaster</span></span>
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<p>This means that electrifying scooters and tuk-tuks would produce much higher improvements in air quality per vehicle than doing the same for comparatively clean cars. And given that these vehicles can easily run on today’s batteries, it should technically be an easy job to convert the fleet. <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/why-electric-motor-scooters-are-leading-electric-vehicle-revolution-in-asia">China has achieved quite a lot in this sphere.</a></p>
<p>But other countries in Southeast Asia, where scooters have been around for generations and are part of the economy and culture, may require a systemic market change.</p>
<p>Owners of scooters, motorbikes and tuk-tuks rely on an important support network of businesses to provide fuel, maintenance and spare parts. Without such a support network in place, no shiny new vehicle can conquer a relevant market share. And if those who benefit from the current petrol-based transport system are left out, they have no incentives to support electrifying transport. </p>
<p>Anecdotally, a similar problem has already been seen in the power generation sector. Much effort has recently been made in communities not connected to a power grid to replace diesel generators with <a href="https://www.ekoenergy.org/solar-vs-diesel-why-solar-generators-should-power-rural-communities/">solar panels and batteries</a>. What sounds like a technical no-brainer can be hindered by unexpected circumstances: this technology does not come with many jobs for the local community after installation. The people who currently sell diesel, maintain the generators and sell the electricity would need another source of income. It seems likely those people understandably do little to support such a transition. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://rsa.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2157930X.2012.664036#.XaYXH5NKhp9">systemic market change</a> that could drive electrification must learn from local entrepreneurs. It would have to address the challenge of higher capital costs for buying batteries and electric motors compared to two-stroke engines. And it would have to replace declining income from selling fuel and lubricant oil with other services such as battery charging or swapping. In China, the <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/why-electric-motor-scooters-are-leading-electric-vehicle-revolution-in-asia">transition towards electric two-wheelers</a> was achieved by regulation in combination with local mass-manufacturing.</p>
<p>There are lessons here for manufacturers as well. Vehicles in the scooter class don’t need the latest generation of expensive <a href="https://theconversation.com/nobel-prize-in-chemistry-how-lithium-ion-battery-inventors-changed-the-world-125009">lithium ion batteries</a>. How much energy they can store is less important than the ability to easily exchange or even repair the batteries. Where possible, vehicle spare parts such as wheels or brakes should be identical to what is available in the respective local markets. </p>
<h2>Promising changes</h2>
<p>Some promising products such as an electric <a href="https://magnet.me/en-GB/company/tuk-tuk-factory">tuk-tuk</a> already exist. In Indonesia, <a href="https://theinsiderstories.com/indonesias-govt-prepares-electric-motorbike-regulations/">locally designed and built e-scooters</a> have started entering the market. Indonesia’s government has taken important regulatory measures, <a href="https://theconversation.com/indonesias-fuel-subsidy-cuts-prevented-even-worse-traffic-jams-82855">cutting fuel subsidies</a> while <a href="https://jakartaglobe.id/context/indonesias-first-locally-produced-electric-bike-turns-heads-at-iims-2019">creating incentives for domestic production of electric vehicles</a>.</p>
<p>In the Philippines, the large-scale roll-out of “<a href="https://www.doe.gov.ph/press-releases/scaled-down-e-trike-project-push-through-doe">e-trikes</a>” saw some delays, but it taught important lessons: don’t start too big, and make sure that an ecosystem is in place to support the new vehicle beyond the point of sale. </p>
<p>The challenge of electrifying the transport sector requires these kind of economic and sociological insights as much as technical ones. It needs industry to work with governments and banks in a concerted effort to replace billions of noisy and dirty engines. Local product design in combination with local manufacturing means a paradigm shift: the transformation of sheer markets for predominantly Japanese motorcycles into players in clean transport technology.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125173/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harry Hoster receives funding from The Faraday Institution and Innovate UK. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry. He supported two Lancaster students who won the James Dyson award 2018 for their O-Wind turbine.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katy Mason receives funding from the Department of Culture Media and Sport to investigate the making of markets in relation to emergent 5G technologies in rural settings, and from the Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy, to explore the potential for developing hydrogen markets in the Heysham and the North West.</span></em></p>Electrifying transport needs bigger changes than another high-end electric car.Harry Hoster, Director of Energy Lancaster and Professor of Physical Chemistry, Lancaster UniversityKaty Mason, Reader in Marketing, Markets and Management, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1135852019-05-14T16:12:48Z2019-05-14T16:12:48ZCars will change more in the next decade than they have in the past century<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274334/original/file-20190514-60570-gfti2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/frankfurtseptember-20-mercedesbenz-f015-luxury-motion-719917177?src=OmsG68JHzirH26Sf6RESWw-1-3">eans/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While the look and feel of our cars has changed in the past <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/automobile/History-of-the-automobile">100 years</a>, the way we drive them hasn’t. But fundamental change is coming. In the next decade, not only will the way they’re powered and wired have shifted dramatically, but we won’t be the ones driving them anymore.</p>
<p>Some cars already have basic automation features, but the automotive experiments currently being undertaken by the likes of Uber and Google make up a minuscule proportion of the vehicles on our roads. By 2030, the standard car will evolve from merely <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-to-consider-before-speed-limiters-are-added-to-cars-114457">assisting the driver</a> to taking full control of <a href="https://www.ertrac.org/uploads/documentsearch/id57/ERTRAC-CAD-Roadmap-2019.pdf">all aspects of driving</a> in most driving conditions. </p>
<p>This widespread automation, together with the electrification and increased connectivity of both the car and society, are set to shake up the car industry in a big way, affecting everything from the way cars look and feel, to how we spend our time inside them, and how they get us from A to B.</p>
<h2>A very different driving experience</h2>
<p>The first major difference we might notice between today’s cars and those of 2030 are their names. Just as Apple and Samsung have taken over a mobile phone market that Nokia and Blackberry once dominated, Tesla, Apple, Dyson, and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/29/alphabet-has-more-than-doubled-its-money-on-lyft.html">Google</a> could become the most recognised automotive brands of the future.</p>
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<p>They’ll likely look a lot different too. From <a href="https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/nissan-ims-concept-previews-electric-elevated-sports-saloon">the outside</a>, the large air intakes and front grills that cool our combustion engines will no longer be needed, while wing mirrors will be replaced with cameras and sensors. Windows could be larger to allow liberated passengers to enjoy the view, or near non-existent to provide privacy. The <a href="https://www.designboom.com/technology/mercedes-benz-vision-urbanetic-autonomous-09-10-2018/">Mercedes-Benz Vision URBANETIC</a> demonstrates these radical new looks with a modular vehicle that can switch bodies to either move cargo or people.</p>
<p>Cars’ interiors will be much more flexible, some allowing customisation of colour, light, privacy, and layout at the touch of a button. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mlh-_hoNLaI">Volvo’s recent 360c concept car</a> envisages a multi-functional space that can transform into a lounge, an office and even a bedroom. </p>
<p>Sun visors will become a thing of the past, with smart glass allowing us to control the amount of entering daylight at the touch of a button. The <a href="https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/concept-cars/mercedes-benz-f015-autonomous-concept-first-ride">Mercedes F015</a> concept car’s doors even have extra screens that can function as windows or entertainment systems. </p>
<p>Many cars will be fitted with <a href="https://news.harman.com/blog/harman-and-daimler-bring-the-first-ar-capable-infotainment-system-to-market-with-the-mercedes-benz-a-class">augmented-reality systems</a>, which will superimpose computer-generated visualisations onto the windscreen or other suitable display areas, to ease the passenger’s nerves from relinquishing the wheel by showing what the car is about to do.</p>
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<p>Drivers will be able to communicate with their cars through speech or gesture commands. In high-end models, we may even see some early versions of <a href="https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-tesla-ceo-elon-musk-major-neuralink-update-soon/">brain-computer interfaces</a>, which would associate patterns of brain activity with commands to control the car or entertain occupants. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42894312">Similar technology</a> has already been used to control prosthetic limbs and wheelchairs.</p>
<h2>Connective technology</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://interestingengineering.com/iot-revolution-5-ways-the-internet-of-things-will-change-transportation">ever-growing</a> internet of things will become central to how our integrated cars move us around and communicate with the outside world. Sensors designed to <a href="https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/insight/publications/2019/01/department-of-transportation-v2x-communications">recognise and communicate</a> with upgraded road signs, markings, networks of cameras, pedestrians, and other vehicles will allow cars to synchronise their movement, minimising fuel consumption and <a href="https://www.its.dot.gov/infographs/predicting_future.htm">improving traffic flow</a>. Cars will also be able to help authorities maintain road infrastructure, for example with tyre sensors that notify them of deteriorating road conditions.</p>
<p>When humans choose to take the wheel, technology will warn drivers about impending collisions with other road users, and attempt to avoid them. Improvements in <a href="https://www.thermal.com/automotive.html#">thermal sensor</a> technology are likely to enable cars to see far beyond the illumination range of car headlights. If sufficiently standardised and legislated for, these technologies should substantially reduce the number of road accidents – albeit probably after an <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-autonomous-cars-really-safer-than-human-drivers-90202">initial spike</a>.</p>
<p>While rural drivers will probably still own their cars, cities may move away from car ownership to the use of on-demand vehicles that take the Uber model to the next level. In Moscow, 9m of these journeys are already made <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2018/12/10/moscow-residents-turn-to-car-sharing-after-parking-crackdown-a63769">daily</a>, more than 30 times higher than at the start of 2018.</p>
<h2>Fuels of the future</h2>
<p>Multiple countries and cities have announced upcoming bans on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles">many by 2030</a>. <a href="https://www.theweek.co.uk/93443/petrol-and-diesel-ban-uk-which-cars-will-be-affected">Older vehicles</a> will still be on the road, so petrol stations are unlikely to disappear by this date. However, car makers are already focusing more and more on vehicles that will support the fuels of the future.</p>
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<p>Precisely what that future will look like is unclear. <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/hybrid-cars-ban-carbon-emissions-uk-environment-a8338611.html">Uncertainty</a> over whether currently popular <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/advice/difference-hybrid-plug-in-hybrid-electric-ev-car/">hybrid cars</a> will be included in vehicle bans may discourage businesses and consumers from investing too much in this path. <a href="https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/future-motoring-what-will-cars-be-25-years">Fully electric</a> vehicles only make up <a href="http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/01/global-top-20-december-2018.html">2%</a> of the global market right now, but as their price drops below that of petrol cars by the <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/">mid 2020s</a>, their market share will surely balloon.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-battery-powered-vehicles-stack-up-better-than-hydrogen-106844">Why battery-powered vehicles stack up better than hydrogen</a>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-accidentally-created-a-new-wonder-material-that-could-revolutionise-batteries-and-electronics-115347">We accidentally created a new wonder material that could revolutionise batteries and electronics</a>
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<p>By how much depends on to what degree their as yet limited <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/3/1/18241489/electric-batteries-aircraft-climate-change">range</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-accidentally-created-a-new-wonder-material-that-could-revolutionise-batteries-and-electronics-115347">charging time</a> can be improved, and how much governments invest in currently patchy <a href="https://www.zap-map.com/live/">electric charging networks</a>. We expect fully electric vehicles to at least be a viable choice for a wide range of drivers by 2030 – but unforeseen groundbreaking technological developments could easily change the future of vehicle fuel. For example, scientists are working hard to solve the <a href="https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/electric-cars/93180/hydrogen-fuel-cell-do-hydrogen-cars-have-a-future">production and storage</a> difficulties that currently <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/advice/does-fuel-cell-work-should-buy-hydrogen-car/">limit</a> the potential of clean, fast-fuelling and long-range <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/advice/does-fuel-cell-work-should-buy-hydrogen-car/">hydrogen-powered vehicles</a>.</p>
<p>The year 2030 might not seem too far away, but a decade is a long time for technology to change. In 2008, the first iPhone had only just been <a href="https://www.t3.com/features/a-brief-history-of-the-iphone">released</a>, and climate change was a background issue for governments and media. Now, <a href="https://singularityhub.com/2016/03/22/technology-feels-like-its-accelerating-because-it-actually-is/">technology</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48097150">environmental discourse</a> are changing at an unprecedented rate. So don’t be surprised if you look back at the cars of today in a decade’s time and wonder how we ever got by.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1116704">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113585/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claude Chibelushi receives funding from BMW AG. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dan Lewis and Debi Roberts do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The year 2030 may not seem far away, but a decade is a long time in technological terms. Widespread automation, electrification, and connectivity are set to revolutionise the car of the future.Dan Lewis, Course Leader, Industrial Design; Product & Transport, Staffordshire UniversityClaude C. Chibelushi, Professor of Cognitive Digital Media Computing, Staffordshire UniversityDebi Roberts, Senior lecturer, Staffordshire UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1104502019-01-30T11:35:29Z2019-01-30T11:35:29ZHydrogen trains are coming – can they get rid of diesel for good?<p>When the UK government <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40669869">cancelled its plans</a> to electrify train lines across Wales, the Midlands and the north of England, and cut back on the Great Western rail network electrification, it brought a premature end to a rail investment programme <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/jul/13/rail-network-investment-cameron-clegg">once touted</a> as the biggest the country had seen since the Victorian era. But now <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/full-steam-ahead-for-hydrogen-trains-spzchrf8s">reports suggest</a> that the government and train manufacturers are hoping there may be an alternative way to turn British railways electric: hydrogen.</p>
<p>Hydrogen trains have already replaced more polluting diesel engines on a line <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/17/germany-launches-worlds-first-hydrogen-powered-train">in Germany</a>, and some train companies think the vehicles could be running in Britain as <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/news/hydrogen-fuel-cell-trains-run-british-railways-2022/">early as 2022</a>. Introducing them would still require substantial investment and wouldn’t be without challenges. But they could be an important step towards reducing the carbon footprint of railways.</p>
<p>Only <a href="http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/26108/rail-statistics-compendium-2016-17.pdf">around a third</a> of the UK rail network has been electrified, with little extra track converted in the last few years. Without continuing to electrify the network, the government is faced with the dilemma of how to eliminate diesel trains that produce carbon dioxide and other harmful pollutants.</p>
<p>The current strategy is to purchase <a href="https://www.railengineer.uk/2017/10/24/bi-mode-trains-unlocking-opportunity/">bimodal trains</a> that can switch to using diesel when they reach parts of the track without electricity. But this is fudging the issue of dealing with climate change and air pollution and still leaves the UK <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/451522/share-of-the-rail-network-which-is-electrified-in-europe/">well behind</a> most other European networks. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256345/original/file-20190130-108351-w6gxir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/256345/original/file-20190130-108351-w6gxir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256345/original/file-20190130-108351-w6gxir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256345/original/file-20190130-108351-w6gxir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=673&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256345/original/file-20190130-108351-w6gxir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256345/original/file-20190130-108351-w6gxir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/256345/original/file-20190130-108351-w6gxir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Hydrogen fuel cell.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Solid_oxide_fuel_cell_protonic.svg">R.Dervisoglu/Wikipedia</a></span>
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<p>If electrifying the rest of the network is deemed too expensive, one potential alternative is to generate electricity on board the train. One way to do this is to use fuel cells that combine hydrogen gas with oxygen from the air to produce electricity and water. Hydrogen can carry more energy than the same weight of batteries, meaning fuel cell systems could be lighter. They also take less time to refuel than batteries take to recharge and don’t have the same <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact">high environmental costs</a> from manufacturing.</p>
<p>The hydrogen gas would need to be compressed into tanks that would usually be stored on the train’s roof. But adding a regenerative braking system to charge an additional small battery would reduce the amount of hydrogen needed to power the train.</p>
<p>The high cost of installing overhead wires means that hydrogen trains would likely be a more economic way to electrify railway lines with relatively low volumes of traffic. And it makes sense to experiment with hydrogen trains to uncover any unexpected issues. But widespread use would require substantial investment in the generation and storage of hydrogen. Because very few hydrogen-based railways have ever been built, it’s not clear if they would actually save governments any money over electrifying larger lines that would provide economy of scale.</p>
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<span class="caption">Costly solution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/train-tracks-rural-environment-717427429?src=yZgDkKBWJhYGxk8F1rhkyw-1-1">Lukas Juocas/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>A better solution might be to develop bimodal trains that can switch between electricity from overhead wires and fuel cells. This would be especially suitable for the UK rail network, which has many bridges and tunnels that are too low to run overhead cables beneath and very expensive to replace. If electric trains could switch to hydrogen power for sections of track with bridges or tunnels rather than requiring cables, it could considerably reduce the cost of electrification.</p>
<p>The other problem with hydrogen fuel cells is that the fuel is currently manufactured from methane (natural gas) using a process called <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-natural-gas-reforming">steam methane reforming</a> that also produces a large output of highly toxic carbon monoxide. This can be converted to carbon dioxide but that means using hydrogen fuel cells still contributes to greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<h2>Cleaner hydrogen</h2>
<p>A pollution-free way of producing hydrogen is through <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-electrolysis">electrolysis</a>, by passing an electric current through water. In theory, you could use excess wind power (and perhaps solar) to generate this electricity and make the hydrogen a renewable energy source. The issue is that electrolysis plants are unlikely to be economic unless they run for a high proportion of the day. This would mean that when there wasn’t excess wind to power them, they would need regular electricity from the grid that would make the process highly expensive (and not necessarily renewable).</p>
<p>A second alternative is to use a “thermochemical” production method that involves reacting water with sulphur and iodine in the presence of heat. The good news is that this method is set to become economical within the next ten years thanks to the development of generation IV nuclear power plants. These high-temperature, <a href="https://theconversation.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-mini-nuclear-reactors-56647">small modular reactors</a> are being developed in China, the US, Canada and Japan but not in the UK or Europe.</p>
<p>Despite the current limits of hydrogen as a transport fuel, as more and more countries (in particular Japan) undertake further research on the hydrogen economy, its costs will fall substantially, just as they have for solar and wind power. Hydrogen could even eventually come to replace natural gas in mains gas pipes, which would help bring down the costs of using it for transport.</p>
<p>The difficulty often seen in trying to introduce a new kind of transport fuel is that vehicle owners won’t use it without the infrastructure to support it but infrastructure builders won’t install it unless there is demand from vehicle owners. A government-funded experiment with hydrogen trains could help overcome this problem and bring the renewable hydrogen economy one step closer to reality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110450/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Scott-Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fuel cells are being touted as an alternative to costly electrification – but no one knows if they’ll really be cheaper.Brian Scott-Quinn, Emeritus Professor of Finance, ICMA Centre, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1033512018-11-26T19:02:24Z2018-11-26T19:02:24ZThe battle to be the Amazon (or Netflix) of transport<p>High-tech companies and venture capitalists have been striving to break into the transport and mobility market. Between 2016 and 2018, venture capital <a href="https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/07/the-rise-of-urban-tech/564653/">investment in urban technology surpassed that of many other areas</a>, including pharmaceuticals and artificial intelligence. Almost 70% of this investment was in mobility. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/smart-mobility-alone-is-no-substitute-for-strong-policy-leadership-105959">Smart mobility alone is no substitute for strong policy leadership</a>
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<p>There are many players in this space, but the three largest are Alphabet, Uber and Didi Chuxing.</p>
<h2>So what do these companies do?</h2>
<p>Alphabet, Google’s parent company, was recently <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/03/alphabet-transportation-investments-projects-overview.html?__source=twitter%7Ctech">dubbed a superpower of transportation by business research firm Gartner</a>. Its market capitalisation, estimated at <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GOOGL/alphabet/market-cap">more than US$700 billion in November 2018</a>, makes it one of the world’s most valuable companies.</p>
<p>Alphabet has many different investment arms, including GV, CapitalG and Gradient. All have invested heavily in transport companies such as Uber, Lyft, Gojek, SpaceX and Scotty Labs. </p>
<p>Google got started in transport by creating digital maps with navigation functions. Later it added features such as traffic conditions and street views. It’s estimated that <a href="https://themanifest.com/app-development/popularity-google-maps-trends-navigation-apps-2018">nearly 70% of smartphone users use the Google Map app</a>. </p>
<p>Alphabet also owns Waze, <a href="https://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/waze-vs-google-maps/">another navigation app</a> that enables users to crowdsource information on highway construction and traffic congestion.</p>
<p>Google is acknowledged as a leader in autonomous vehicle research through Waymo, its self-driving car unit. To date, <a href="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/10/waymo-wont-have-to-prove-its-driverless-taxis-are-safe-before-2018-launch/">Waymo vehicles</a> have logged more than 16 million kilometres in tests. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">In October, Waymo marked a milestone of more than 16 million kilometres self-driven on public roads.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Waymo is also working with cities to improve public transport. One of these initiatives is a partnership with Phoenix Valley Public Transit in Arizona to provide <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-e-scooters-solve-the-last-mile-problem-theyll-need-to-avoid-the-fate-of-dockless-bikes-102633">services to solve</a> the “<a href="https://transportist.org/2016/10/06/what-do-we-know-about-the-first-milelast-mile-problem-for-transit/">first and last mile</a>” problem. </p>
<p>Another initiative related to autonomous vehicles involves developing <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-19/fastest-driverless-vehicle-unveiled-in-adelaide/9887458">self-driving buses</a>. These will reduce costs of providing public transport by eliminating human drivers. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-driverless-future-what-happens-to-todays-drivers-51973">In a driverless future, what happens to today's drivers?</a>
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<p>Alphabet created Sidewalk Labs in 2015 to focus on <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/02/googles-guinea-pig-city/552932/">building better and “smarter” cities</a>. Sidewalk Labs’ first experimental site in Toronto will feature <a href="https://www.dezeen.com/2018/08/15/quayside-sidewalk-toronto-sidewalk-labs-waterfront-canada-smart-city-development/">flexible, modular streets and heated sidewalks</a>. </p>
<p>Within Sidewalk Labs are three portfolio companies. Among these, Coord is involved with improving mobility in cities. Cityblock focuses on health. And Intersection is interested in urban innovation and technology.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Personal mobility is a key focus of the Sidewalk Toronto project.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-a-tech-company-build-a-city-ask-google-86402">Can a tech company build a city? Ask Google</a>
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<p>Finally, the Google founders are personally interested in developing <a href="https://thenextweb.com/insider/2017/04/26/forget-flying-cars-googles-sergey-brin-is-reportedly-building-a-blimp-of-some-sort/">flying cars and high-tech blimps</a>.</p>
<p>Uber was founded in 2009 as a peer-to-peer ride-sharing company. It has been one of the most successful startups. As of August 2018, it was <a href="https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies">valued at US$72 billion</a>. In a recent <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2018/09/06/dara-khosrowshahis-first-year-at-uber">interview with The Economist</a>, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said his goal is for Uber to become the Amazon of transport. </p>
<p>As the previous CEO of Expedia, he has experience in aggregating services from a range of companies. This is what Expedia did by combining fare information for hotels, flights and car rentals into a single site. </p>
<p>Uber is involved in a range of transport-related offerings, including ride sharing, pooled ride sharing, share bikes and scooters, autonomous vehicles, food delivery and freight. </p>
<p>The company is looking to expand into public transit. Earlier this year, it created the <a href="http://www.thetransitwire.com/2018/02/01/uber-launches-cincinnati-mobility-lab-with-regional-partners/">Cincinnati Mobility Lab</a> to conduct research and engage with employers to help Cincinnati, Ohio, develop a transport plan to increase public transport use. </p>
<p>The third major player is Didi Chuxing. Established in 2012, the Beijing-based company has attracted venture capital funding and was <a href="https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies">valued at US$56 billion</a> as of August 2018. Didi was a major competitor to Uber in China until in 2016 it <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/didi-chuxing-china-startups-uber">purchased Uber’s Chinese operations</a> for <a href="http://time.com/4432662/uber/">US$35 billion</a>. Until recently it operated in China only, but is now branching out in Mexico, Brazil and Australia, with plans for further expansion into a number of other countries. </p>
<p>Like Uber, Didi provides transport services across taxis, minibuses, ride pooling and ride, car, bicycle and e-scooter sharing. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-e-scooters-solve-the-last-mile-problem-theyll-need-to-avoid-the-fate-of-dockless-bikes-102633">Can e-scooters solve the 'last mile' problem? They'll need to avoid the fate of dockless bikes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Recently Didi has expanded into three other transport-related areas: big data management to service its growing transport empire; artificial intelligence focusing on autonomous vehicles; and smart transport applications such as smart traffic signals, reversible traffic lane management and the like. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/city-streets-become-a-living-lab-that-could-transform-your-daily-travel-71272">City streets become a living lab that could transform your daily travel</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Mass transportation versus MaaS</h2>
<p>While not specifically mentioning <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">Mobility as a Service</a> (MaaS), all of the tech companies are headed in the same direction. They all want to be the dominant provider of a transport services platform. </p>
<p>A company that has played a major role in promoting MaaS is <a href="https://maas.global/what-is-mobility-as-a-service-maas/">MaaS Global</a>. It’s much smaller than Alphabet, Uber and Didi Chuxing, but its CEO has aspirations for the company to become the <a href="https://www.helsinkismart.fi/portfolio-items/whim/">Netflix of transport</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">For Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s behind all this interest?</h2>
<p>Tech companies and venture capitalist may be interested in transport only because there is money to be made. Or, perhaps, they are also interested in solving a growing global problem. </p>
<p>Either way, with urbanisation increasing worldwide, traffic congestion will continue to worsen. Building more infrastructure is not only costly, but <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/book/stuck-in-traffic/">provides only a temporary fix</a>. Perhaps improving mobility by making better use of existing infrastructure, as tech companies are proposing, is the way forward for cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Myer Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorina Pojani receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Investment is pouring into urban technology, much of it into innovative ventures that aim to transform how we get around our cities.Neil G Sipe, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, The University of QueenslandDorina Pojani, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1059592018-11-11T18:58:31Z2018-11-11T18:58:31ZSmart mobility alone is no substitute for strong policy leadership<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/244503/original/file-20181108-74763-ytxxcp.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most transport resources are being used inefficiently. The Canberra Transport Photo shows the road space required to move 69 people using public transport, bicycles and private motor vehicles.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cyclingpromotion.org/canberra-transport-photo">Cycling Promotion Fund</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Transport, mobility and congestion continue to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">hotly debated topics</a> in politics, the media, academia and soon at the <a href="http://www.urbanmotion.com.au">Urban Motion</a> conference in Brisbane. And rightly so.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics counted <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9309.0">19.2 million registered motor vehicles</a> in Australia as at January 31 2018. While the human population grew by 27% since the turn of the century, vehicle numbers <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/if-car-ownership-keeps-growing-australians-will-be-outnumbered/news-story/92f65fe440421d9ede7155e895db723c">increased by 43%</a> and continue to grow in all states and territories.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">Our new PM wants to 'bust congestion' – here are four ways he could do that</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Australian House of Representatives Standing Committee on Infrastructure, Transport and Cities recently released a comprehensive report, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/ITC/DevelopmentofCities/Report">Building Up & Moving Out</a>, on its inquiry into the Australian government’s role in the development of cities. The committee recommends:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the Australian Government, in conjunction with State and Territory Governments, undertake the development of transport networks which allow for fast transit between cities and regions, and within cities and regions, with a view to developing a more sustainable pattern of settlement based on the principle of accessibility at a local, regional and national level. The Committee further recommends that the development of a fast rail or high speed rail network connecting the principal urban centres along the east coast of Australia be given priority, with a view to opening up the surrounding regions to urban development.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The committee further recommends the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-30-minute-city-how-do-we-put-the-political-rhetoric-into-practice-56136">30-minute city</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">active transport</a> and a more sustainable urban form (Recommendation 11).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ciJEHGMtpWc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Global Mobility Index by the World Economic Forum and MIT Senseable City Lab, showing how people move in 100 cities around the world. Congestion levels calculated using real-time traffic-monitoring data, commuting time and the estimated percentage of trips that could be shared if citizens were willing to wait five minutes to share a trip.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Leading up to the report’s launch, many of the inquiry’s submissions and expert witness accounts stressed the need to arrest urban sprawl and heed well-established research advice. All levels of government often ignore this advice to appease voters, but more roads and more lanes make matters worse. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/transport-lies-opinion-piece-graham-currie-ftse/">Transport research</a> provides clear evidence that increasing road capacity is a shortsighted band-aid that increases car travel. It also promotes driving dependency and ultimately makes congestion worse.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stuck-in-traffic-we-need-a-smarter-approach-to-congestion-than-building-more-roads-84774">Stuck in traffic: we need a smarter approach to congestion than building more roads</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many of the report’s transport-related aspirations point in the right direction. Yet many of them are not new and come with their own set of challenges. </p>
<p>Proposals to solve Australia’s mobility crisis appear to be dominated by technocentric optimism – a strong belief that new technology and disruptive innovation will somehow make it all better. Contenders for the transport panacea include car-sharing and ride-sharing platforms, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trackless-trams-are-ready-to-replace-light-rail-103690">trackless trams</a> and more efficient traffic flow systems enabled by smart city investments in IoT (Internet of Things) sensors, big data analytics and urban science. Let’s debunk some of this.</p>
<h2>More disruption?</h2>
<p>The notion of disruptive innovation is often believed to bring about change for the better. One of the most commonly mentioned examples is Uber and similar commercial ride-sharing platforms. They certainly disrupted the established taxi industry. But cabs are no longer their main competitor. </p>
<p>Uber launched the “<a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/will-melburnians-dive-into-real-ride-sharing-with-uberpool-20180607-p4zk08.html">Pool</a>” feature, which optimises routes so more than one rider can share the same car. As a result, the cost per ride now <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jan/13/uber-lyft-cars-public-transport-cities-commuting">competes with public transport</a> rather than just cabs. And this risks making inner-city traffic <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dr-gridlock/wp/2018/07/25/a-new-study-says-services-like-uberpool-are-making-traffic-worse/">worse</a>.</p>
<h2>More driverless cars?</h2>
<p>Another often-cited disruptive innovation involves autonomous vehicles and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-winners-and-losers-in-the-race-for-driverless-cars-63874">driverless cars</a>. While they may come with <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-could-create-new-jobs-in-a-welcome-boost-to-australias-motor-industry-89972">economic</a> and <a href="https://www.theiet.org/resources/books/transport/lowcarbmob.cfm">environmental</a> benefits, there are as yet <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-vehicles-could-bring-out-the-best-or-worst-in-our-cities-by-transforming-land-use-84127">unresolved issues</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-vehicles-could-bring-out-the-best-or-worst-in-our-cities-by-transforming-land-use-84127">Driverless vehicles could bring out the best – or worst – in our cities by transforming land use</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/of-cats-and-cliffs-the-ethical-dilemmas-of-the-driverless-car-49778">ethics in AI can cost people’s lives</a>, road usage funding and taxation are unclear, and the average car occupancy can drop below one. As a result, without regulatory intervention, self-driving cars will <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/27/technology/driverless-cars-congestion.html">not reduce congestion</a> but <a href="https://www.ptua.org.au/myths/robotcar/">add traffic</a> to the roads.</p>
<h2>More efficiency?</h2>
<p>Transport offers vast room for improvement, so it is not surprising that optimisation is a low-hanging fruit. The <a href="https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/publications/growth-within-a-circular-economy-vision-for-a-competitive-europe">Ellen MacArthur Foundation</a> identified significant structural waste not only in fuel tank-to-wheel energy flow but also in road utilisation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242864/original/file-20181030-76413-arqq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242864/original/file-20181030-76413-arqq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242864/original/file-20181030-76413-arqq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242864/original/file-20181030-76413-arqq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242864/original/file-20181030-76413-arqq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242864/original/file-20181030-76413-arqq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242864/original/file-20181030-76413-arqq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242864/original/file-20181030-76413-arqq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/publications/growth-within-a-circular-economy-vision-for-a-competitive-europe">Ellen MacArthur Foundation, Growth Within: a circular economy vision for a competitive Europe</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Researchers at MIT and ETHZ propose a <a href="https://dusp.mit.edu/transportation/news/death-traffic-light">slot-based intersection</a> that would double the usual capacity and herald the “death of the traffic light”. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4CZc3erc_l4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">MIT Senseable City Lab has developed slot-based intersections that could replace traditional traffic lights, greatly reducing queues and delays. Sensor-laden vehicles pass through intersections by communicating and remaining at a safe distance from each other, rather than grinding to a halt at the lights.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These efficiency gains are welcome. Yet, considering the ever-increasing demand for mobility, these measures on their own will not solve our mobility crisis.</p>
<h2>Wanted: leadership!</h2>
<p>What is seldom questioned is the need to travel in the first place. The right to mobility and freedom to move locally and globally are undoubted. But it is worth asking what regulatory instruments and economic shifts can produce sustainable mobility.</p>
<p>Some examples that have started making their way into the mobility debate include the impact of <a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/96279/">nomadic work</a> practices on transport demand and distributed <a href="https://eprints.qut.edu.au/116358/">co-working spaces</a> to reduce the need for CBD commutes.</p>
<p>Progressive policy interventions, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/traffic-congestion-is-there-a-miracle-cure-hint-its-not-roads-42753">road congestion charges</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/14/german-cities-to-trial-free-public-transport-to-cut-pollution">free public transport</a>, lack the backing of political leadership in Australia.</p>
<p>Longer term, there is an urgent need to seriously consider even bolder policy innovation. We can learn from overseas examples, such as the six-hour work day, the four-day work week and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-should-create-cities-for-slowing-down-75689">slow city</a> movement, which is more about slowing down the “hamster wheel” of life than traffic. We should also evaluate <a href="https://greenagenda.org.au/2018/06/ecological-human-settlement-theory/">new approaches to human settlement</a> as well as what impact <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-support-universal-health-care-so-why-not-a-universal-basic-income-91572">universal basic income</a> or <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/igp/news/2017/oct/igps-social-prosperity-network-publishes-uks-first-report-universal-basic-services">universal basic services</a> can have on reducing traffic congestion.</p>
<p>There are opportunities to join this debate at the <a href="http://www.urbanmotion.com.au">Urban Motion</a> conference in Brisbane on November 19-20 2018. We also invite participants to support the <a href="http://lowcarbonlivingcrc.com.au/FutureCities">Future Cities CRC</a> bid recently <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/karenandrews/media-releases/applicants-shortlisted-deliver-new-industry-focused-research">shortlisted</a> by the Australian government.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is based on the presentation “Smart Cities are Slow Cities” at the <a href="http://www.real-world-futures.qut.edu.au/future-living/">QUT Real World Conversation</a> forum on August 2 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcus Foth receives research funding from the Australian Research Council, the Food Agility CRC and the CRC for Spatial Information. He is a member of the Queensland Greens.</span></em></p>Blind belief that new technology and disruptive innovation will fix congestion in our cities overlooks the need for strong leadership that supports progressive policy innovation.Marcus Foth, Professor of Urban Informatics, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1027242018-09-12T20:12:47Z2018-09-12T20:12:47ZWhy driverless vehicles should not be given unchecked access to our cities<p>Autonomous, or driverless, vehicles can support and promote <a href="https://atap.gov.au/mode-specific-guidance/active-travel/2-key-characteristics-of-active-travel.aspx">active travel</a>, such as walking and cycling, when two basic conditions are met:</p>
<ol>
<li>their access to cities is restricted</li>
<li>their use is pooled.</li>
</ol>
<p>In the absence of these two conditions, autonomous vehicles could lead to a decline in active travel in cities and an increase in economic, social and environmental costs. Potential costs are rarely mentioned in the rhetoric about autonomous vehicles, much of which is highly optimistic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/going-down-the-same-old-road-driverless-cars-arent-a-fix-for-our-transport-woes-50912">Going down the same old road: driverless cars aren't a fix for our transport woes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, universal or widespread access to the city by autonomous vehicles could result in detrimental outcomes. Not least of these impacts are on <a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-health-at-the-heart-of-sustainability-policy-7914">active travel</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/fat-of-the-land-how-urban-design-can-help-curb-obesity-6445">public health</a>. Depending on the conditions under which autonomous vehicles are allowed to operate in the city, we can expect a range of impacts with direct or indirect implications for walking and cycling.</p>
<h2>How could these vehicles have harmful impacts?</h2>
<p>Currently, access to or from public transport stops usually involves a short walk or cycle ride for many people. In the future, some people might choose to use autonomous vehicles to reach the bus, train or tram stop instead of walking or cycling. Or they might choose to move away from public transport and switch to autonomous vehicles completely. Clearly, both situations would reduce active travel.</p>
<p>At present, most people get in or out of their cars in car parks. In the future, autonomous vehicles can deliver passengers to their destinations without needing to park there. After drop-off, autonomous vehicles will take themselves to another part of the city where parking is cheap or free. Or they may go on to pick up someone else. </p>
<p>One possible consequence is that existing road infrastructure – carriageway or parking space – will be reallocated for passenger drop-off and pick-up. This would leave little or no extra space for pedestrians and cyclists.</p>
<p>Although autonomous vehicles could <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-autonomous-cars-really-safer-than-human-drivers-90202">increase road safety</a>, they might be segregated from other road users to reduce disruptions (deliberate or otherwise) and increase the predictability of autonomous vehicle flow. </p>
<p>Segregation of transport modes would mean pedestrians or cyclists are only allowed to cross autonomous vehicle lanes at specific points, either via signalled crossings or bridges and tunnels. This will reduce accessibility for pedestrians or cyclists. An urban structure will be created that is less “permeable” for active transport, with routes that are less direct than they could be. </p>
<p>Ultimately, by offering opportunities for recreation, work or even sleep during car journeys (instead of driving), autonomous vehicles might <a href="https://theconversation.com/utopia-or-nightmare-the-answer-lies-in-how-we-embrace-self-driving-electric-and-shared-vehicles-90920">increase the travel time and distance</a> that people consider acceptable. The frequency of car trips might increase too. And, as vehicles spend longer on the road, requirements for road infrastructure capacity might also increase. </p>
<p>In the longer term, if people are willing to travel further, homes and jobs might be relocated. This would fuel urban sprawl and reduce the viability of public transport services. Lower public transport use will be detrimental for active travel and public health.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235715/original/file-20180911-123101-p7zoq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Impacts of different levels of vehicle access and ownership.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Diagram by Dominic Stead</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/fat-of-the-land-how-urban-design-can-help-curb-obesity-6445">Fat of the land: how urban design can help curb obesity</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/putting-health-at-the-heart-of-sustainability-policy-7914">Putting health at the heart of sustainability policy</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Limit access for urban well-being</h2>
<p>Overcoming the negative consequences of autonomous vehicles requires first and foremost strong restrictions on their access within the city. This should be much more limited than it is for conventional cars. Access should be restricted to specific nodes and axes in the city. </p>
<p>Exceptions would apply to certain users and situations. Examples include <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-could-change-lives-for-disabled-people-if-we-let-them-30286">passengers with disabilities</a>, emergency services, construction and maintenance, and deliveries of heavy goods. </p>
<p>The underlying logic should be to channel autonomous vehicle traffic along a limited number of corridors in the city, and to locate pick-up and drop-off points at key nodes along these corridors. These nodes should be well served by high-frequency public transport services. They should also be well connected to a dense network of attractive pedestrian and cycle infrastructure. </p>
<p>The aim is to promote fast and efficient node-to-node journeys, as in the image below, rather than door-to-door journeys. Nodes should be distributed around the city according to a hierarchy. </p>
<p>Locating minor nodes around one kilometre apart would mean the maximum distance to reach the nearest node is 500 metres. This is generally considered to be an acceptable walking distance in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit-oriented_development">transit oriented development</a>. </p>
<p>Major nodes can be located several kilometres apart. These serve as multi-modal transit centres that provide connections to train and/or bus services. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235174/original/file-20180906-190668-1ej5uoo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Schematic representation showing restricted access of vehicles to designated urban corridors and nodes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Restricting traffic access to certain streets in the city will provide space that can be used almost exclusively for active transport. </p>
<p>A future where autonomous vehicle ownership is pooled will have more economic, social and environmental benefits for cities. Pooling vehicles will clearly reduce the number of vehicles needed to serve the city. This in turn will mean less infrastructure is needed to accommodate them. </p>
<p>However, even if autonomous vehicles are individually owned, controlling access to selected nodes and axes in the city can still have benefits for the city and its citizens. </p>
<p>Australian cities need to be prepared for widespread autonomous vehicle use before it happens. This includes being prepared for more active transport. At the moment <a href="https://home.kpmg.com/au/en/home/insights/2018/01/2018-autonomous-vehicles-readiness-index.html">Australia is not as ready</a> as many countries in Europe and North America. Readiness requires more research, planning and preparation soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominic Stead advises on a project funded by the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Kimpton receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iderlina Mateo-Babiano receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Myer Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorina Pojani receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Corcoran receives funding from the Australian Research Council.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Sipe receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Myer Foundation. </span></em></p>To maximise the benefits and limit the costs, the use of autonomous vehicles should be pooled and their access to the city restricted.Dominic Stead, Delft University of TechnologyAnthony Kimpton, Casual Lecturer in Urban Sociology and Geography, The University of QueenslandDerlie Mateo-Babiano, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneDorina Pojani, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of QueenslandJonathan Corcoran, Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of QueenslandNeil G Sipe, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/712722017-02-22T03:20:30Z2017-02-22T03:20:30ZCity streets become a living lab that could transform your daily travel<p>Integrated transport has long been the holy grail of transport engineering. Now, a project set up north of Melbourne’s CBD aims to make it a reality. </p>
<p>Led by the School of Engineering at the University of Melbourne, the project will create a living laboratory for developing a highly integrated, smart, multimodal transport system. The goals are to make travel more efficient, safer, cleaner and more sustainable. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.citytransport.info/Integ.htm">Integrated transport</a> aims to combine various modes of travel to provide seamless door-to-door services. Reduced delays, increased safety and better health can all be achieved by sharing information between users, operators and network managers. This will optimise mobility and minimise costs for travellers.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/world-first-hi-tech-transport-research-for-melbourne/">National Connected Multimodal Transport Test Bed</a> includes arterial roads and local streets in an area of 4.5 square kilometres in Carlton, Fitzroy and Collingwood.</p>
<p>Bounded by Alexandra Parade and Victoria, Hoddle and Lygon streets, this busy inner-suburban area is a perfect location to test a new generation of connected transport systems. Our growing cities will need these systems to manage their increasing traffic. </p>
<h2>How will the test bed work?</h2>
<p>The test bed covers all modes of transport. From April, it is due to collect data on vehicles, cyclists, public transport, pedestrians and traffic infrastructure, such as signals and parking. The area will be equipped with advanced sensors (for measuring emissions and noise levels) and communications infrastructure (such as wireless devices on vehicles and signals). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/155097/original/image-20170201-12664-1j5sitz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The test bed will collect data on all aspects of transport in the inner-suburban area covered by the project.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The aim is to use all this data to allow the transport system to be more responsive to disruption and more user-focused. </p>
<p>This is a unique opportunity for key stakeholders to work together to build a range of core technologies for collecting, integrating and processing data. This data will be used to develop advanced information-based transport services.</p>
<p>The project has attracted <a href="http://newsroom.melbourne.edu/news/coming-commute-near-you-melbourne-launches-world-first-connected-living-transport-lab">strong support</a> from government, industry and operators. </p>
<p>Government will benefit by having access to information on how an integrated transport system works. This can be used to develop policies and create business models, systems and technologies for integrated mobility options. </p>
<p>The test bed allows industry to create and test globally relevant solutions and products. Academics and research students at the University of Melbourne are working on cutting-edge experimental studies in collaboration with leading multinationals.</p>
<p>This will accelerate the deployment of this technology in the real world. It also creates enormous opportunities for participation in industry up-skilling, training and education. </p>
<h2>What are the likely benefits?</h2>
<p>Urban transport systems need to become more adaptable and better integrated to enhance mobility. Current systems have long suffered from being disjointed and mode-centric. They are also highly vulnerable to disruption. Public transport terminals can fail to provide seamless transfers and co-ordination between modes. </p>
<p>This project can help transport to break out of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/disruption-ahead-personal-mobility-is-breaking-down-old-transport-divides-70338">traditional barriers between services</a>. The knowledge gained can be used to provide users with an integrated and intelligent transport system.</p>
<p>It has been difficult, however, to trial new technologies in urban transport without strong involvement from key stakeholders. An environment and platform where travellers can experience the benefits in a real-world setting is needed. The test bed enables technologies to be adapted so vehicles and infrastructure can be more responsive to real-time demand and operational conditions. </p>
<p>Rapid advancements in sensing and communication technologies allow for a new generation of solutions to be developed. However, artificial environments and computer simulation models lack the realism to ensure new transport technologies can be properly designed and evaluated. The living lab provides this. </p>
<p>The test bed will allow governments and transport operators to share data using a common information platform. People and vehicles will be able to communicate with each other and the transport infrastructure to allow the whole system to operate more intelligently. The new active transport systems will lead to safety and health benefits.</p>
<p>The test bed allows impacts on <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-future-world-full-of-driverless-cars-seriously-64606">safety in a connected environment</a> to be investigated. Interactions between active transport modes such as walking and cycling with connected or autonomous vehicles can be examined to ensure safety is enhanced in complex urban environments. Researchers will study the effects of warning systems such as red light violation, pedestrian movements near crossings, and bus stops. </p>
<p>Low-carbon mobility solutions will also be evaluated to improve sustainability and cut transport emissions. </p>
<p>Environmental sensors combined with traffic-measurement devices will help researchers understand the effects of various types of vehicles and congestion levels. This includes the impacts of emerging <a href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/63638/edit">disruptive technologies</a> such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-winners-and-losers-in-the-race-for-driverless-cars-63874">autonomous</a>, on-demand, <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-000-cars-and-no-garage-why-car-sharing-works-31179">shared</a> mobility systems. </p>
<p>A range of indoor and outdoor sensor networks, such as Wi-Fi, will be used to trial integrated public transport services at stations and terminals. The goal is to ensure seamless transfers between modes and optimised transit operations.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The main image caption was corrected on February 23.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71272/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Majid Sarvi works for the University of Melbourne as the Professor in Transport for Smart Cities.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary Liddle and Russell G. Thompson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A project set up north of Melbourne’s CBD aims to create a living laboratory for developing a highly integrated, smart, multimodal transport system.Majid Sarvi, Chair in Transport Engineering and the Professor in Transport for Smart Cities, The University of MelbourneGary Liddle, Enterprise Professor, Transport, The University of MelbourneRussell G. Thompson, Associate Professor in Transport Engineering, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/711002017-01-11T12:39:50Z2017-01-11T12:39:50ZHow we can make super-fast hyperloop travel a reality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152283/original/image-20170110-29045-15uxm3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Across Europe and parts of Asia, travellers can enjoy some of the fastest rail services in the world. From Málaga to Madrid, Tokyo to Osaka, high-speed electric trains condense the travel times between major hubs by racing along at some 300kph. The fastest commercial service in the world is the Shanghai maglev – short for magnetic levitation, the method of propulsion it uses to glide along its tracks <a href="http://www.railway-technology.com/features/feature-top-ten-fastest-trains-in-the-world">as rapidly as 430kph</a>. </p>
<p>Of course, air travel is still much faster: an Airbus A380 aircraft has a cruising speed of <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4990780.stm">over 1,000kph</a>. But at a time when reducing emissions is a top priority across the globe, there’s an urgent demand for cleaner, more energy-efficient alternatives – especially in the US, which is by far <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.PSGR?year_high_desc=true">the world’s biggest user of air travel</a>, with almost 800m passengers each year. Enter, the Hyperloop – a train-like technology which has the potential to match air travel for speed. </p>
<p>Hyperloop is the brainchild of US business magnate Elon Musk. First <a href="http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf">proposed in 2013</a>, the Hyperloop system consists of “pods”, which are suspended inside a tube by magnetic levitation and propelled using a linear electric motor. The environment inside the tube is almost a complete vacuum, allowing the pods to travel at great speeds without being slowed by air resistance. The tubes themselves can be placed underground, or run above ground, elevated by columns. </p>
<h2>The race begins</h2>
<p>Musk originally intended the Hyperloop to cover the 600km route from Los Angeles to San Francisco at an average speed of about 960kph, reducing what’s currently a 12-hour train journey to just 35 minutes. Although funding has since been channelled into a bullet train service for this route, the idea of the hyperloop has <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/cities-vie-hop-super-speedy-hyperloop-rail-171056964.html">attracted interest elsewhere</a>. </p>
<p>The wealthy city-state of Dubai <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/11/10/500mph-hyperloop-train-will-travel-from-dubai-to-abu-dhabi-in-12/">has agreed</a> to conduct a feasibility study for a 150km link with Abu Dhabi. There’s also <a href="https://www.dezeen.com/2016/03/11/hyperloop-to-connect-european-cities-bratislava-vienna-budapest/">a proposal</a> to connect Vienna with Budapest and Bratislava. And US start-up Hyperloop One recently <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/cities-vie-hop-super-speedy-hyperloop-rail-171056964.html">announced a shortlist</a> of 35 potential hyperloop test projects, which included proposals for routes linking Sydney with Melbourne, London with Edinburgh and Mumbai with Delhi. </p>
<p>While these developments have sparked much excitement, some <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-rail-travel-and-why-it-doesnt-look-like-hyperloop-45354">remain sceptical</a> about whether they can work in the real world. </p>
<h2>Too fast to function?</h2>
<p>Hyperloop pods are designed to reach their top speed of 1,220kph (slightly less than the speed of sound) in about 70 seconds, when accelerating at 0.5G (the “G” refers to <a href="http://www.gforces.net/what-is-g-force-meaning.html">“G-force”</a>, which is how we measure acceleration). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feel the force.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">From www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To put this in context, at 1G we are pushed into the back of our seat with a force equal to our body weight – it would be uncomfortable. But the acceleration of an aircraft during takeoff is typically around 0.4G, and most people are happy with that. </p>
<p>We also experience G-forces when we go around a curve. This “centrifugal force” is what flings you from side to side on fairground rides. Again, about 0.5G is the limit for comfort. Travelling at speeds of 1,220kph sets the minimum curve radius to about 23km, which means that the track has to be pretty straight. It must be very level, too, because vertical hills and bumps also give rise to G-forces.</p>
<p>With the right site, these constraints could be manageable. The real challenge for hyperloop will be dealing with earth movements. In all large-scale engineering, allowances are made for thermal expansion, ground water and seismic activity – things that make the ground shift around. Normally, these aren’t too much of a problem. There are expansion joints in bridges and pavements, and even when subsidence causes cracks to appear in a wall, we shrug our shoulders and say “so what?”. </p>
<p>But movement in the hyperloop track could cause real problems, when the pods are travelling at such high speeds. That’s why Musk favours a track on columns, so that it can be adjusted and realigned in the event of ground movement. Indeed, we already do this kind of realignment with conventional railway tracks: the rails on sleepers are loosely supported on ballast and regular “tamping” ensures that the track is kept straight.</p>
<p>With such demanding specifications, actually constructing a hyperloop will not be cheap. But the days of aircraft and ships are numbered, unless we can find a way to power them with electricity or hydrogen fuel. Perhaps we could even learn to live with <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/non-power-nuclear-applications/transport/nuclear-powered-ships.aspx">nuclear-powered ships</a>. Hyperloop offers a novel vision of the future of long-distance travel – one that might just catch on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Hunt is a Fellow of Trinity College Cambridge</span></em></p>With 35 new inter-city routes shortlisted for testing, it’s time to start taking hyperloop seriously.Hugh Hunt, Reader in Engineering Dynamics and Vibration, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/703382016-12-21T02:56:02Z2016-12-21T02:56:02ZDisruption ahead: personal mobility is breaking down old transport divides<p>Strong divisions between various transport modes – roads, rail, buses, ferries and so on – have dominated their planning and management for decades, in Australia and overseas. Budgets are often devised and allocated with these transport modes in mind. Whole organisational structures have been created to manage each mode’s infrastructure separately.</p>
<p>But how people move around – to and from work, home, or for recreation – involves personal journeys. These are driven by the need to travel, by mobility, and not governed by the mode of travel.</p>
<p>As a result, major Australian cities generally suffer from disjointed connections between modes of travel. They lack an overall emphasis on how the whole transport system functions to aid personal journeys.</p>
<p>Thankfully, transport planners have been thinking a lot more about mobility, as emerging and established technologies offer huge potential for change. The wealth of new data sources – mobile phone tracking, on-board GPS and ticketing, to name a few – provides a better understanding of travel behaviour.</p>
<p>Increasingly, cities are realising that individual travellers care less about the operational details of one mode or another, and more about a safe and reliable journey to their destination. Rapidly changing infrastructure technology and the availability of large passenger datasets are changing the way transport professionals plan and manage networks. </p>
<h2>All change</h2>
<p>In New South Wales, <a href="http://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/about">Transport for NSW</a> was created to better integrate the various transport agencies and modes. While that has been a big step in the right direction, technology is changing the landscape much faster than anyone expected.</p>
<p>Technological advance, new transport infrastructure, a quest for greater productivity and continual population growth in major cities have created a dynamic environment for traffic engineers and transport planners. They must cater for the evolving demands of transport users while exploring and understanding emerging technologies.</p>
<p>Passenger expectations of what a transport network should provide have also changed and grown. Improvements in vehicle technology, road, rail and port infrastructure mean we can travel further and more efficiently than ever before. Commuters now expect this efficiency while taking safety and reliability as given.</p>
<p>Access through smartphones and navigation technology to mobility information about traffic conditions and scheduling has bridged the knowledge gap between transport authorities and users.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150019/original/image-20161214-18902-hrxxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150019/original/image-20161214-18902-hrxxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150019/original/image-20161214-18902-hrxxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150019/original/image-20161214-18902-hrxxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150019/original/image-20161214-18902-hrxxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=640&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150019/original/image-20161214-18902-hrxxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150019/original/image-20161214-18902-hrxxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150019/original/image-20161214-18902-hrxxw9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The advent of car-sharing services in Australia could transform parking and road space calculations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GoGet/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On top of all this, disruptive travel options – for instance, car-sharing services such as GoGet and Hertz 24/7 – have emerged. Almost 31,000 Sydney residents have joined the two services. These use 700 dedicated parking spaces throughout the city (although heavily concentrated within 12 kilometres of the centre). </p>
<p>In Sydney, it’s estimated a single car-share vehicle can replace up to 12 private vehicles that would otherwise compete for parking. Then there are car-riding options such as Uber, which are creating entirely new modes of mobility.</p>
<p>Individually, each of us can now pick and choose between competing travel options. We can also shift our choices dynamically for each section of a trip. This simple change is radically altering the behavioural characteristics of making each trip.</p>
<p>That has huge implications for infrastructure planning. It also fundamentally alters the capability of transport agencies managing the system in real-time.</p>
<p>The shift in landscape may even disrupt one of the strongest historical divides: the competition between roads and public transport. With strong feelings on both sides, divisions have tended to impede more integrated approaches – which should be the aim of a transport system driven by the need for mobility. </p>
<h2>Technology blurs the lines</h2>
<p>Much of the public transport versus roads argument has been unnecessary because when more travellers choose public transport over private vehicles, the remaining drivers benefit as well. Despite this logic, the divisions remain and battles still rage.</p>
<p>However, the evolution of technology to accommodate (and help track) passenger behaviour, coupled with disruptive new travel options, is intensifying and will have to be taken into account. Companies are aggressively pursuing solutions for real-time on-demand ride-pooling, such as UberPOOL. This allows you to share your ride and split the cost with another Uber rider headed in the same direction.</p>
<p>It is not unthinkable that just as the taxi industry is being disrupted by new technology, public transport could be as well. In a world where the lines between private and public transport are blurred, traditional modal divisions move from being outdated to thoroughly unworkable.</p>
<p>If we rethink transport as a consumer-centred experience, targeting mobility rather than mode of travel, then a truly integrated approach to transport planning would deliver the benefits of using public transport and other high-occupancy vehicle options. Revenues from public transport would increase, while road congestion would reduce with fewer motorists. This would lead to greater productivity and economic growth. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150016/original/image-20161213-18879-16cczur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150016/original/image-20161213-18879-16cczur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150016/original/image-20161213-18879-16cczur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150016/original/image-20161213-18879-16cczur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150016/original/image-20161213-18879-16cczur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150016/original/image-20161213-18879-16cczur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150016/original/image-20161213-18879-16cczur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150016/original/image-20161213-18879-16cczur.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Self-driving cars available to anyone with a smartphone have been launched in Singapore.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Nutonomy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The technological changes under way will only accelerate this potential. Transport agencies need to plan for it, to ensure they take advantage of these changes and maximise the benefits.</p>
<p>Autonomous cars – an emerging technology that is nevertheless rapidly moving toward deployment – will accelerate this trend. If a self-driving car service offers transport solutions to anyone via smartphone, then the differences between a taxi, Uber, UberPOOL and public transport begin to blur.</p>
<h2>A world of mobility choice</h2>
<p>The transport sector is poised to realise a true – and revolutionary – convergence between data science, communication and autonomous technology. As large-scale data collection and sharing become the norm, our mobility options could explode. </p>
<p>Travellers will be able to make real-time multimodal journey decisions. They will base these decisions on the attributes that matter most to them: safety, reliability, door-to-door travel time and cost. </p>
<p>This will help transport planners too. The data generated will allow optimised operation of the road network such as variable speed limits, dynamic lane reversal, variable message signs and ramp metering.</p>
<p>Clearly, the emerging data science of transport technology innovation will have a deep impact on both the user experience and the behind-the-scenes management of the network.</p>
<p>Ideally, to deliver this “universal personalised mobility”, cities need to integrate pricing and information delivery. Every traveller makes their transport decisions for their own circumstances given the information available to them. This might include online journey information or roadside information about travel times, speed limits or tolls.</p>
<p>The complete cycle of information from the network to the operating agencies and back to the traveller is a keystone of the future transport system for Australian cities, and for cities around the world. The challenge for today is to close the information gap by building on emerging technologies and shifting our focus to providing personalised mobility travel.</p>
<p>That’s going to take some effort and a lot of co-ordination, but the benefits of mobility versus mode of travel will become obvious very quickly. We just need to commit to it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70338/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor S. Travis Waller has managed more than 40 research projects over the past 15 years that have been funded from more than two dozen transport agencies and companies worldwide including Transport for NSW, U.S. FHWA, U.S. National Science Foundation, and the Australian Research Council.
</span></em></p>Roads versus public transport: for decades, these have been the battle lines in debates over transport in our cities. But a revolution in mobility is under way that will transform our thinking.S. Travis Waller, Professor and Director of the Research Centre for Integrated Transport Innovation, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/631412016-07-27T13:15:34Z2016-07-27T13:15:34ZSolar Impulse’s biggest legacy will be in your home – not in the skies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132173/original/image-20160727-5645-129noat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/solarimpulse/28277947665/">Solar Impulse</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After 12 years of planning and testing, Solar Impulse has finally completed its <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36890563">epic voyage around the world</a>. The solar-powered plane first set off from Abu Dhabi 16 months ago, and it has since travelled some 25,000 miles (40,000km) over 17 gruelling legs – all without using a single drop of fuel.</p>
<p>Solar Impulse is no ordinary aircraft – it has the span of a Boeing 747 but weighs little more than a family car. Covering these huge carbon-fibre composite wings are more than 17,000 solar cells, which provide energy for its four propellers during the day, while also charging four lithium batteries which provide power during the night.</p>
<p>To save weight, the unpressurised cabin has just enough room for one pilot, no bigger than the front of a typical car. For up to five days and nights the pilots, Andre Borschberg and Bertrand Piccard have to do everything in this confined space. Fly, eat, sleep (just 20 minutes at a time) and wash. In theory, Solar Impulse could fly continuously for many months, but the tiny cockpit means it must land to swap pilots after each leg. As part of their trip they have broken several world records including the longest continuous flight of any solo fixed wing aircraft – <a href="http://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/06/solar-impulse-sets-world-record-117-hours-52-minutes-longest-solo-flight-ever-video/">almost 118 hours</a>.</p>
<p>But after this epic voyage, the real question is what will be the legacy of Solar Impulse? Are we likely to see 747s with solar cells anytime soon? The short answer is unfortunately no. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132178/original/image-20160727-21569-1v9lxxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132178/original/image-20160727-21569-1v9lxxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132178/original/image-20160727-21569-1v9lxxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=142&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132178/original/image-20160727-21569-1v9lxxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=142&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132178/original/image-20160727-21569-1v9lxxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=142&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132178/original/image-20160727-21569-1v9lxxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=179&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132178/original/image-20160727-21569-1v9lxxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=179&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132178/original/image-20160727-21569-1v9lxxm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=179&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Big wing, tiny cockpit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/solarimpulse/27744060756/">Solar Impulse</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Solar Impulse required all those solar cells and four batteries (weighing a quarter of the whole aircraft) just to power propellers that generate around 70 horsepower, similar to a family car. To put this in perspective, the engines on a Boeing 747 have the equivalent power of more than 1,000 cars. The number of solar cells and more importantly the number of batteries to generate and store this energy makes such a plane unfeasible with current technology.</p>
<p>However, while a large-scale solar plane is unlikely to be seen, electric or hybrid electric planes have taken a step forward with the recent announcement of the NASA X-57 all-electric plane. Announced by NASA head Charles Bolden as the <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-electric-research-plane-gets-x-number-new-name">first of a new series</a> of X-planes, this plane is powered by an array of 14 small propellers on the leading edge of the wing, promising a five-fold reduction in the energy required for a small plane to cruise at 175mph. Such a design would also mean significant reductions in the aircraft noise and pollution. </p>
<p>While the X-57 isn’t a large-scale commercial aircraft, the technology developed in the project could well make it into hybrid electric planes in the not too distant future, especially with the current rate of <a href="https://theconversation.com/tomorrows-battery-technologies-that-could-power-your-home-41614">battery technology development</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132184/original/image-20160727-21556-ir4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132184/original/image-20160727-21556-ir4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132184/original/image-20160727-21556-ir4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132184/original/image-20160727-21556-ir4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132184/original/image-20160727-21556-ir4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132184/original/image-20160727-21556-ir4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132184/original/image-20160727-21556-ir4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132184/original/image-20160727-21556-ir4mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Concept image of the X-57. The plane is expected to make its maiden flight in the coming years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/nasas-x-57-electric-research-plane">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Solar Impulse’s most visible legacy is likely to be in the domestic power market, as any electric car or plane is only as clean as the power source that generates that electricity in the first place. Solar Impulse has helped to raise the profile of solar power and this is likely to make people consider how they can do their bit to use cleaner energy. This took a major step forward with the news that Tesla is soon to fully release its <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/tesla-powerwalls-for-home-energy-storage-are-hitting-u-s-market">Powerwall rechargeable battery unit</a> – a battery unit that charges using electricity generated from solar panels, which can then be used in the evening or when there has been too little sun. It has the potential to revolutionise both commercial and personal energy use. While there are other competitors the appeal of the Tesla brand is likely to take solar power to a level not seen before.</p>
<p>The pioneering spirit of Borschberg and Piccard may see their legacy in electric planes or domestic solar energy, but perhaps its biggest influence will be on the minds of young people still unsure of their future. The world is crying out for more engineers and scientists, and projects such as Solar Impulse show how exciting science and engineering can be. In the same way that Apple’s iPad and Siri are a throw-back to the legacy of Star Trek, the planes we fly in 40 or 50 years may have their origin in projects like Solar Impulse.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63141/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Ashton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Don’t expect a solar-powered 747 anytime soon.Neil Ashton, Senior Researcher, Oxford eResearch Centre, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/590672016-07-05T01:02:02Z2016-07-05T01:02:02ZHow Uber opens cities only to close them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121651/original/image-20160509-23374-1cdlleg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Uber may open cities from taxi oligopolies, but ultimately it closes them off to the possibility of more meaningful alternatives.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/41802269@N03/16562371385/in/photolist-reytZk-8bjpqw-3Jaze-pRn3sS-e8dar4-fZwzGt-dLk348-9EeChH-7sZ7Pw-7LUxsM-FC8g7n-hmt4uE-7sZ7YQ-8KmALu-qKUoKw-9z4Kzr-bK99dM-fEVHjz-dQPMVf-8KmATo-8K4MfZ-9z7LLf-9K277T-8KmAQ1-ejRHZH-6ABpgr-qvKug6-qgQJ8v-aFnNv6-6L7p5R-8K55KH-avqz66-qvC9eA-qvKw6P-qN39Tv-9RTW34-qvLGFn-qN32Dv-pRchu7-8KmzHy-qKUraS-qN38nV-qN35An-qN7X3Y-qvKqYz-qvD6hU-qN33Mc-nmYi8e-qvLxoe-qKUfw7">Scott L/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most of us know the story of what <a href="http://www.salon.com/2016/01/06/uber_fail_why_the_start_up_giant_stumbled_in_europe_and_how_it_could_happen_in_the_u_s/">Salon’s Elias Isquith</a> calls “Wall Street’s favourite disrupter”. Uber, the ride-hailing service run primarily through smartphones, is a global economic success story. </p>
<p>In 2008, it was but an idea held by <a href="https://www.uber.com/our-story/">Travis Kalanick and Garrett Camp</a>. Today it is a profit-making “<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uber-airbnb-and-other-unicorns-have-valuations-cut-at-t-rowe-price-2016-04-15">unicorn</a>”. It was <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/business/dealbook/uber-nears-investment-at-a-62-5-billion-valuation.html">recently valued</a> at US$62.5 billion.</p>
<p>How Uber came to be worth such significant sums is a question <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/b/48bcbc81-c457-4c71-809c-823da150b5a3">often posed</a>. Integral to its success was its speedy efforts at connecting riders with drivers through smartphones. This saw Uber become an <a href="http://fortune.com/2014/06/25/uber-the-great-disruptor-of-pizza-delivery/">on-demand</a> <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/tech/netflix-uber-spotify-disruptor-businesses-7354782">disruptor business</a>. In the process, it has <a href="https://www.uber.com/">alluringly branded itself</a> as a service “for the good of all” that puts “people first”.</p>
<p>Uber seemingly takes from over-priced taxis, facilitates livelihoods for its drivers, gives to the needy rider and sticks it to urban regulators – or so the story goes.</p>
<p>Much closer to the truth may be that when Uber isn’t wrapping itself in cloaks of communal good, it is busy trying to institute a monopoly on ride-hailing. It actively encloses what could be a more open city in which riders and drivers work to benefit city residents.</p>
<h2>Now you’re open, now you’re closed</h2>
<p>Uber “opens” cities to “close” them. We think this way because Uber is just another intermediary capitalist (like eBay, Airbnb and PayPal) that profits from the needs of typically urban people connected to the internet. </p>
<p>Uber is therefore <a href="https://ricochet.media/en/852/uber-is-capitalism-at-its-worst">an extension of capitalism</a> and, because of that, can be understood as a business trying to maximise its market share.</p>
<p>Uber “opens to close” a city in three steps:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>to disrupt the existing taxi monopoly (a closed system) through marketing and <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/uber-fined-17-million-by-queensland-20150624-ghwugz.html">paying fines incurred by its drivers</a>;</p></li>
<li><p>to entice riders to download its app, drivers to “share” their car, and urban regulators to acquiesce to the popularity of the Uber service; and</p></li>
<li><p>to exclude ride-hailing alternatives through its maximised market share.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123733/original/image-20160524-20557-1g5cqex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123733/original/image-20160524-20557-1g5cqex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123733/original/image-20160524-20557-1g5cqex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123733/original/image-20160524-20557-1g5cqex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123733/original/image-20160524-20557-1g5cqex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123733/original/image-20160524-20557-1g5cqex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123733/original/image-20160524-20557-1g5cqex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/123733/original/image-20160524-20557-1g5cqex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=619&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Uber ‘opens to close’ a city in three steps.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/29233640@N07/2856362888">Robert Couse-Baker/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The marketing Uber uses to disrupt the grip one or more taxi companies have on a city is to present a rich rhetoric of being the “alternative”, somehow “grassroots” and, most importantly, a “communal” choice for drivers and riders. It casts itself as a Robin Hood in the struggle against unjust, or simply outdated, urban regulators.</p>
<p>This branding, Uber’s cheaper price and its convenient app make it an alluring option for ride-hailers. So long, cabbie dynasty, this city’s now open.</p>
<p>But because Uber grows within the shell of the taxi industry all it really does is open a city to enclose it for its own benefit. It does this through consistent marketing to riders, but also by enticing drivers to partner with Uber with <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/travel/a-new-report-explores-the-benefits-of-uber/news-story/5e41687c9bc2614f07015f85eb784f7f">promises of higher pay</a> and a <a href="https://partners.uber.com/join/">be-your-own-boss mentality</a>. </p>
<p>Uber also crows about creating <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/business-spectator/uber-sharpens-job-creation-pitch-/news-story/eafd7dc21fcd669d93e4a5a2ba7900a2">tens of thousands of jobs</a> and getting <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-women-drivers-idUSKBN0M60RH20150310">one million women into work</a>. This helps to get regulators onside.</p>
<p>A city is “closed” when Uber’s enclosure is complete: when it has successfully disrupted taxis, changed ride-hailing regulation and has a city’s residents on board (so to speak).</p>
<p>We say closed because an “Uber city” is a city captured by intermediary (middleman) capitalism. Defeated taxis are creating their own apps, and <a href="https://www.lyft.com/">alternatives</a> <a href="http://shareyourride.net/">abound</a>. But Uber’s market dominance makes it very difficult for more meaningful alternatives to emerge.</p>
<p>Market dominance means the exclusion of competitors and the control of the means of production so that profits keep rolling in. “Capture your market” is a mantra for a reason. And that reason is because it works – it’s Capitalism 101.</p>
<h2>An open-city alternative</h2>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121654/original/image-20160509-23374-18olmbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121654/original/image-20160509-23374-18olmbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121654/original/image-20160509-23374-18olmbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121654/original/image-20160509-23374-18olmbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121654/original/image-20160509-23374-18olmbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121654/original/image-20160509-23374-18olmbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121654/original/image-20160509-23374-18olmbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The need to get around a city safely and conveniently shouldn’t be viewed as an opportunity for businesses like Uber to cash in.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">STML/flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A truly open city would be one where residents are invited, supported and backed by their city government to create their own ride-hailing apps. Riders still get picked up for a fair price, drivers still get paid more, but profit goes into a public trust to ensure the apps provide good service but also to fund resident-specific projects, like <a href="http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/01/germany-launches-its-national-bike-autobahn-cycle-network/422451/">bike roads</a> fully separated from cars. </p>
<p>Not only will this keep jobs and money inside the city, but it also puts a vital transportation resource into the hands of city residents and not a foreign business.</p>
<p>The need to get around a city safely, conveniently and with as little carbon emissions as possible shouldn’t be viewed as an opportunity for businesses like Uber to cash in. It should rather be treated as a common pool resource. </p>
<p>Since the majority of people in cities still depend on cars and roads to get around, chasing the wrong incentives can lead to chronic traffic jams and a host of other problems.</p>
<p>City residents don’t want traffic jams; moving around is a vital part of their daily lives. Uber doesn’t necessarily mind traffic jams because of surge pricing and a rolling meter – it still makes money. Ironically, despite this conflict of interests, Uber is the US$62 billion Wall Street poster child and the open-city alternative is excluded.</p>
<p>Uber may open cities from taxi rackets, but it closes them off to the possibility of more radical and meaningful alternatives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Uber actively encloses what could be a more open city in which riders and drivers work to benefit city residents.Jean-Paul Gagnon, Assistant Professor in Politics, University of CanberraDavid Carter, Associate Dean of Research and Associate Professor of Law, University of CanberraFanny Thornton, Assistant Professor of Law, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/576632016-05-16T00:44:57Z2016-05-16T00:44:57ZHow ‘gamification’ can make transport systems and choices work better for us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120933/original/image-20160503-19538-1ve7dwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Using incentives drawn from game play, the peak-hour crush can be reduced, or avoided altogether.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/stilgherrian/4820063055/in/photolist-8kW5Pr-mVmgND-dpp4GX-e1A5u7-5BYsA-fyf8S-dpp4PB-dppeVo-83zxqq-qGDAjH-c7d3Km-9NGcbW-p4Uk49-e1uoKP-q7wLgf-5TPgH8-d47m7-8XgbJm-PmdjF-r1RcgE-bCyNPJ-dpp67R-5J4X4n-dppe1b-e3ofZL-e3hvt8-dxWxBf-dxWzZQ-9p2JvP-e3ofZ7-e3hvqH-e3hvsB-e3ofYE-aaoVEp-e1A57N-dxWybm-e1uou8-e1A4TQ-e3og13-e3hvrx-dxWCQb-e1unZi-e3hvsa-dxWxuC-e3ofZj-awexJ7-dxWA7N-dxWAGy-bZBAuL-bZByej">Stilgherrian/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Individual users and their behaviours are critical to how transport systems work. How can we better incentivise their behaviour to achieve policy goals such as shifting transport modes and reducing road trauma and traffic congestion? </p>
<p>Peak-hour congestion and peak loading, for example, are the twin most pressing issues for public transport agencies around the world. The search for low-cost “solutions” to such problems is a continuing challenge. By 2031, public transport patronage in many cities is expected have <a href="http://www.cabinet.qld.gov.au/documents/2010/jul/connecting%20seq%202031/Attachments/Draft%20Connecting%20SEQ%202031.pdf">doubled or even tripled in 25 years</a>. </p>
<p>Australian governments at all levels recognise this increasing demand, but infrastructure investments are facing long delays due to funding shortfalls. Instead of building costly new infrastructure – for example, the <a href="http://www.choosebrisbane.com.au/invest/why-brisbane/brisbanes-changing-landscape/bus-and-train-tunnel?sc_lang=en-au">A$5 billion Brisbane bus and train tunnel</a> – can we use transport capacity more efficiently to defer this investment? That is, how can we shift demand from peak to off-peak times? </p>
<h2>How about playing a game?</h2>
<p>A game is viewed as “an activity that is voluntary and enjoyable, and governed by rules”. Gamification incorporates elements of game play into an interactive system without having a fully fledged game as the end product. </p>
<p>Gamification can be defined as the “<a href="http://gamification-research.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/02-Deterding-Khaled-Nacke-Dixon.pdf">use of game design elements in non-game contexts</a>”. It introduces competition and social activity into behavioural interventions. The participants, such as public transport passengers, become “players” who can win individual or group rewards if they adjust their behaviour.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120922/original/image-20160503-19535-wg3teo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120922/original/image-20160503-19535-wg3teo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/120922/original/image-20160503-19535-wg3teo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120922/original/image-20160503-19535-wg3teo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120922/original/image-20160503-19535-wg3teo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=158&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120922/original/image-20160503-19535-wg3teo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120922/original/image-20160503-19535-wg3teo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/120922/original/image-20160503-19535-wg3teo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=198&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Conceptual gamification procedure applied to transport use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recent evidence underlines the significance of a gamified approach to behaviour change. Currently, there are few case studies in the transport field. These may not be branded directly as gamification, but the concepts of these cases are borrowed from it. </p>
<h2>Active travel</h2>
<p>Gamified design has been used in the health field and can dramatically transform people’s health and physical activity levels. One example from the UK is the <a href="http://www.beatthestreet.me/">Beat the Street</a> initiative. In Reading, it has <a href="http://www.intelligenthealth.co.uk/best-foot-forward-for-reading-as-beat-the-street-returns/">encouraged thousands of residents to walk and cycle</a> for health benefits. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"726795827226677248"}"></div></p>
<p>Another example of such <a href="http://www.activehealthykidsaustralia.com.au/siteassets/documents/ahka_reportcard_2015_web.pdf">programs in Australia</a> is Healthy Active School Travel. This is a free, tailored program proven to help primary school students, parents and teachers to leave the car at home and use sustainable travel modes to get to school. Examples include walking, cycling, riding a scooter, or taking public transport. </p>
<p>In participating schools in Brisbane, the program has helped to convert 35% of single-family car trips to school to an <a href="http://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-transport/public-transport/school-transport/active-school-travel-program">active and healthy transport mode</a>.</p>
<p>For these games, leaderboards are compiled and reported at all competition levels. Peer encouragement is strong. Low-cost rewards like stickers encourage students to make positive changes in their travel behaviour or participate in events such as scooter safety skills sessions. </p>
<p>Engagement remains strong throughout the year as each month has a new focus and a new prize. Examples include prizes for the “most children walking to school” in March, the “most children bike riding” in April, and the “most children scootering” in May.</p>
<h2>Public transport</h2>
<p>Gamification schemes have just been introduced in a public transport context for the first time via <a href="https://www.travelsmartrewards.sg/">Singapore’s INSINC program</a>. This aims to shift demand from peak to off-peak shoulder times in Singapore’s public transport system.</p>
<p>The scheme manages peak-hour congestion by offering incentives for commuters to travel in off-peak periods. These incentives include random (raffle-like) rewards, social influence and personalised offers. </p>
<p>A six-month research pilot, launched in January 2012, achieved a <a href="http://web.stanford.edu/%7Ebalaji/papers/13INSINC.pdf">7.49% shift from peak to off-peak hours</a> for all commuter trips. </p>
<h2>Road safety</h2>
<p>There are many gamified schemes and interventions to improve road safety, especially when it comes to young drivers. It is well established that they are over-represented in numbers of road accidents in any driver demographics.</p>
<p>In Australia, people in the 17-25 age group made up 12.4% of the population, but <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/Road_trauma_Australia_2014_statistical_summary_N_ISSN.pdf">20.5% of driver deaths and 20.2% of all deaths</a> in 2014.</p>
<p>To motivate young people to drive more safely, many interventions have been developed. Car insurance companies have designed some interventions. Examples include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="http://gametuned.com/about/">GAMETUNED</a> in the UK; </p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9TlxdyYNUY">S-Drive</a> in Australia; </p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://www.actuarios.org/espa/web-nueva/publicaciones/anales/2013/135-154.pdf">paying accident insurance by the kilometres driven</a> in the Netherlands; </p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.tower.co.nz/car-insurance/smartdriver">SmartDrive</a> in New Zealand; </p></li>
<li><p>a <a href="http://sciencenordic.com/rewarding-safe-drivers-could-make-roads-safer">return insurance premium scheme</a> in Norway; and </p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/11/the-swedish-approach-to-road-safety-the-accident-is-not-the-major-problem/382995/">starting bonuses</a> in Sweden. </p></li>
</ul>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/A8dAUA4wKBU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">S-Drive offers rewards for safe driving in Australia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These gamified programs are designed to promote safe driving. Such programs fall into two categories: monetary rewards and a reward point scheme. </p>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>Gamification is based on sound psychological and social theory and has had success in the transport field. </p>
<p>The important questions confronting transport agencies are not if and how gamification works, but where it may be useful and how to design a successful intervention. We know most about the approach’s efficacy in schools, but less about its efficacy with adults and in the transport context.</p>
<p>There is ample scope to harness a gamification approach in Australia to achieve transport-system-oriented goals. <a href="http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/technology-article.asp">Radio Frequency Identification card</a> or app technology could be used to encourage better use of new bicycle/pedestrian path infrastructure, or local area walking and cycling. </p>
<p>The potential to combine games and rewards with public transport travel is significant. It could provide additional behaviour change rewards for off-peak travel, encourage walking instead of vehicle access to public transport, or reward use of alternative public transport stops to avoid congested stations. </p>
<p>The outcomes could be tied to business-based travel plans where businesses can show improvements in their bottom lines from encouraging mode shift from car to public transport or active travel. Some of the incentives may then be underwritten through their savings.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57663/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara T.H. Yen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Using elements of game play, we can create incentives for people to change how and when they make various transport choices in ways that enable the whole system to work better.Barbara T.H. Yen, Research Fellow at Urban Research Program, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/549542016-02-19T03:23:08Z2016-02-19T03:23:08ZAustralian Infrastructure Plan has some way to go to give our cities what they need<p><a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/">Infrastructure Australia’s</a> latest report, <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/files/Australian_Infrastructure_Plan.pdf">Australian Infrastructure Plan</a>, is a substantial contribution to better infrastructure planning.</p>
<p>For our cities, it cogently argues for more compact settlement patterns and transport pricing reform. However, it has some substantial weaknesses.</p>
<h2>Integrating land use and transport priorities</h2>
<p>The report’s discussion about the need for more compact cities is impressive but falls into the same trap as the state governments it criticises for failing to adequately integrate land use development directions and transport priorities. </p>
<p>The Infrastructure Priority List is rather light on initiatives that will support development of Australia’s four largest cities as more compact cities, rather than just cities with a compact core.</p>
<p>For example, while many public transport projects are included, these are mainly rail projects focused on feeding central business districts. These are worthy projects that will improve services and promote <a href="http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/agglomeration-economies/">agglomeration economies</a>. However, they deal with only part of the overall public transport needs for development of more compact cities. </p>
<p>The report clearly recognises that higher-frequency public transport services will be needed more broadly across our cities. It includes some rail projects for growth areas and bus rapid transport in some locations. It does not focus sufficiently, however, on public transport, walking and cycling projects that will help the middle suburbs achieve their potential. </p>
<p>These are the areas where much more employment and residential development needs to take place if our cities are to become more compact. Supportive infrastructure, particularly public transport and active transport, is central to this goal.</p>
<p>Another illustration of the failure to adequately integrate land use and transport thinking is the discussion of servicing the outskirts of our cities. </p>
<p>A major reason these areas have infrastructure and service delivery problems is that their development densities are too low. Yet I found no reference to the need to increase densities in outer urban areas. This would help with issues such as the need to improve public transport services and associated cost-recovery rates. </p>
<h2>Urban governance</h2>
<p>There is useful discussion in the plan on governance matters but also a significant hole. </p>
<p>International conversations about cities currently emphasise the importance of someone being able to “speak for the city” and of cities having more financial autonomy. These matters are important for cities to have the resources to perform their roles more effectively and be more accountable for their performance. </p>
<p>The plan looks at the need to reform local government, as well as project planning and delivery arrangements, but does not consider the central governance question: “who speaks for our cities?”. This is a challenge that is fundamental to our cities’ common difficulties of sustaining long-term land use transport plans. </p>
<p>The apparent answer is “state governments” at present, but the recent Sydney introduction of a Greater Sydney Commission is a very innovative step to strengthen partnerships between the state and local governments at city-wide level. This move is recognition that the right answer needs to be wider than simply the state government. New governance arrangements should have figured more prominently in the report.</p>
<p>On funding, the report cites London on a number of occasions. There is no better city to use as a model, given that its population is about what Sydney and Melbourne can expect in 40 years – and that nobody does it better. London has already resolved the problem of “who speaks for the city”. </p>
<p>Under the mayor’s leadership, London is pursuing greater financial autonomy. The city is using measures such as <a href="http://www.afr.com/opinion/value-capture-is-infrastructure-magic-bullet-20151021-gkeqj9">value capture</a> quite aggressively to increase its financial autonomy. The plan discusses value capture to an extent, but it needs a stronger focus on this as a great funding opportunity for more autonomous and accountable cities.</p>
<h2>Externalities and pricing reform</h2>
<p>From a public transport perspective, the weak treatment of externalities is the biggest problem in the plan.</p>
<p>There is much discussion of congestion and recognition of potential issues of social disadvantage, but not much systematic recognition of other externalities of cities, particularly transport externalities. The assumption seems to be, for example, that:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>agglomeration economies (or wider economic benefits more broadly) will be recognised somehow and dealt with at an appropriate time in some way;</p></li>
<li><p>greenhouse gas emissions will be dealt with by whatever Australia decides to do to meet its international obligations;</p></li>
<li><p>air pollution externalities will be met by vehicle emission standards; and</p></li>
<li><p>accident and health externalities do not exist or are not important.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>This provides scant comfort for the pricing reform the plan proposes. Road pricing reform is about more than recovering infrastructure costs and making motorists aware of congestion costs. </p>
<p>It is about improving the efficient allocation of scarce resources by making road users (and public transport users) more accountable for all the net external costs attributable to their travel choices. This includes (for example) the air pollution costs that remain after emission standards are applied, the accident costs not covered by insurance, rising health costs from a lack of exercise linked to motor vehicle dependence, and the costs of greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>The report should have been much stronger on all the externalities involved in all modes of transport being internalised within reformed transport pricing arrangements. </p>
<p>The plan cites evidence that Australia’s urban public transport cost-recovery rates are low by comparison with similar cities elsewhere. If road pricing reform is implemented and includes a wide range of external costs, the case for increasing these cost-recovery rates is defensible, on two conditions:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>measures are in place to support particular disadvantaged groups (which could be through government funding of targeted fare concessions); and</p></li>
<li><p>external benefits of public transport (for example, agglomeration economies) are recognised as warranting cost-recovery rates that are less than 100%. </p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Road funding model</h2>
<p>The discussion about reforming the road funding model is hard to evaluate because the treatment of external costs of vehicle use is too vague. </p>
<p>If those costs were all internalised, as they should be for more efficient asset use, then it would be a mistake to hypothecate all the revenue in the road funding model to roads. The payments for air pollution damage, health and accident costs, for example, would need to be separated and be available for other uses that help lower such external costs. </p>
<p>More broadly, the process of determining road infrastructure priorities should not be ultimately devolved to the board of a road funding entity. It should be subject to an integrated process of planning land use and transport, to which that board contributes. Elected politicians ought to remain the ultimate decision-makers on major works.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure planning vs integrated planning</h2>
<p>The plan’s discussion about long-term infrastructure planning being “an opportunity to improve the value of community engagement” needs to provide more clarity about just what this means. </p>
<p>If long-term integrated land use transport planning had been undertaken more effectively in Australian cities, we would not need separate infrastructure agencies at federal and state levels. </p>
<p>If the report is suggesting community consultation on strategic infrastructure planning that is separate to what should be happening around long-term land use transport plans, which are becoming increasingly broad in international best-practice cities, then we will have <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-uneasy-marriage-planners-public-and-the-market-struggle-to-work-well-together-54405">very confused communities</a>.</p>
<p>The long-term process of planning integrated land use transport should be where strategic consultation takes place. Infrastructure would be <em>one</em> of the matters subject to consultation and infrastructure priorities <em>one</em> output from the planning process. </p>
<p>The fundamental discussion point needs to be what we want our cities to be like in 30 to 40 years’ time. Transport and other infrastructure discussions and priorities should be placed in the context of creating those cities. </p>
<h2>The market’s role in public transport</h2>
<p>The plan argues for more competition in the delivery of public transport services. </p>
<p>The cost savings it cites are essentially from settings where a private operator replaces a public operator (the greater the savings, the more bloated the initial public operator). International experience is that subsequent rounds of market testing, once a private provider is in place, deliver few savings.</p>
<p>Furthermore, recent research by David Hensher, from the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies at University of Sydney, suggests that if you have an efficient private operator operating under a negotiated performance-based contract, this will be <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/lse/jtep/2015/00000049/00000001/art00008">as efficient as a tendered outcome</a>. The report does not seem to be aware of these important nuances.</p>
<h2>Improving the policy debate</h2>
<p>Infrastructure Australia has done much to raise the quality of debate about infrastructure planning and delivery. Its Australian Infrastructure Plan continues this contribution.</p>
<p>However, so far as our cities are concerned, the effectiveness of the plan will be compromised unless Infrastructure Australia walks the walk in terms of land use transport integration. It needs to align its priorities much more comprehensively with its well-framed land use development directions, and take a broader perspective on pricing reform and associated funding and governance matters. </p>
<p>This is about better integration and delivery in the broadest sense.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stanley receives funding from Australia's peak industry body for the bus industry, the Bus Industry Confederation. </span></em></p>Infrastructure Australia’s latest report is substantial but, critically, it fails to incorporate the transport thinking needed to develop more compact cities that work better for everyone.John Stanley, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, The Business School, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/458172015-08-21T05:34:29Z2015-08-21T05:34:29ZElectric aircraft – the future of aviation or just wishful thinking?<p>Since the dawn of aviation, planes have primarily been powered by carbon-based fuels such as gasoline or kerosene. These contain a lot of energy for their weight, providing the vast power required to lift large commercial airliners on journeys across the globe. But with oil resources declining and penalties on greenhouse gas <a href="http://www.cleansky.eu/">emissions</a> increasing, the future of aviation is dependent on finding an alternative power source. Is electricity the answer?</p>
<p>A first step is to develop “<a href="http://www.moreelectricaircraft.com/">more electric aircraft</a>” – jet-powered planes that maximise the use of electricity for all the other aircraft systems. The idea is to significantly reduce fuel consumption by <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/research/transport/projects/items/moet_en.htm">improving overall energy efficiency</a>. In practice, this means reducing the weight of the aircraft, reducing drag with improved aerodynamics and optimising the <a href="http://virtualskies.arc.nasa.gov/atm/2.html">flight profile</a> to use less fuel. </p>
<p>But though these improvements can save on fuel, that alone isn’t enough. The shift to more sustainable aircraft requires major, longer-term solutions.</p>
<p>Such significant innovations have often been driven by military requirements. The jet turbine engine was developed <a href="http://lordkingsnorton.cranfield.ac.uk/ww2/page28819.html">during World War II</a> and the US Air Force’s Chuck Yaeger first broke the sound barrier in the <a href="http://airandspace.si.edu/collections/artifact.cfm?object=nasm_A19510007000">Bell X-1</a> as part of the Cold War race to achieve supersonic speeds. The drive for new technologies led to massive improvements in performance and reliability, which has since filtered through to commercial aviation and made mass intercontinental air travel a reality.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91292/original/image-20150810-11077-5m3n97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91292/original/image-20150810-11077-5m3n97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91292/original/image-20150810-11077-5m3n97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91292/original/image-20150810-11077-5m3n97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91292/original/image-20150810-11077-5m3n97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91292/original/image-20150810-11077-5m3n97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91292/original/image-20150810-11077-5m3n97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Left: the Bell X-1, the first supersonic aircraft. Right: a British Airways Concorde jet, the only commercial supersonic plane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bell_X-1_in_flight.jpg%20%20https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:235ac_-_British_Airways_Concorde;_G-BOAD@LHR;15.05.2003_%288056002570%29.jpg">Left: US Air Force. Right: Aero Icarus via Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Concorde was the ultimate expression of this transformation from military to high-performance commercial aircraft, but despite its phenomenal performance it was plagued by complaints of excessive noise and pollution. Modern jet air travel still consistently raises such environmental concerns and, while the military has an obvious incentive to design the fastest aircraft, its motivation to go green is less obvious. We may need to look elsewhere for the next big innovation.</p>
<h2>Cleaning up the skies?</h2>
<p>Solar-powered endurance aircraft have received a lot of attention recently, with the <a href="http://www.solarimpulse.com/">Solar Impulse</a> team attempting to make the first round-the-world flight. But solar power, while an interesting technical challenge, is not a particularly realistic option for mass transit of passengers. As can be seen from the Solar Impulse aircraft, the power output from the Solar Panels on a very wide wingspan is able to transport only the aircraft and the pilot for any significant distance.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91303/original/image-20150810-11101-9l5n6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91303/original/image-20150810-11101-9l5n6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91303/original/image-20150810-11101-9l5n6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91303/original/image-20150810-11101-9l5n6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91303/original/image-20150810-11101-9l5n6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91303/original/image-20150810-11101-9l5n6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91303/original/image-20150810-11101-9l5n6f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar Impulse landing at Brussels Airport.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SolarImpulse_HB-SIA_landing_Brussels_Airport_3-crop.jpg">Brussels Airport</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Battery storage is the key limiting factor for electric aircraft. If electric aircraft are held back by either weight or fuel restrictions, it’s probably down to the battery. Aircraft typically have a longer fuelling time than a car, so rapid recharging is possible and effective, as current jet aircraft take about the same time to refuel (and also for passenger and cargo turnaround) so electric charging of about 1hr is reasonable, however the critical problem is energy density – how much energy does the battery provide for its weight? </p>
<p>Typical lithium-ion batteries in use today have a maximum energy density of around 1,000,000 joules of energy per kilogram, and while <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21651928-lithium-ion-battery-steadily-improving-new-research-aims-turbocharge">newer research</a> promises the possibility of higher densities, these are not available commercially. A million joules sounds like a lot. However, compare this with <a href="http://www.statoilaviation.com/en_EN/pg1332347009500/ar1334072083204/SFRAviation/fuel_jeta1.html">43 million joules per kilogram</a> for aviation fuel. Swapping the fuel tanks for a battery weighing 43 times as much isn’t a viable option – clearly there’s a significant storage problem to be solved before electricity can power large aircraft over long distances.</p>
<h2>The future for electric air travel</h2>
<p>So where does electric power fit in the long-term vision for consumer air travel? Despite the obvious technical challenges, The Airbus prototype <a href="http://www.airbusgroup.com/int/en/innovation-citizenship/airbus-e-fan-the-future-of-electric-aircraft.html">E-Fan aircraft</a> is due to be put into production by 2017. The E-fan is a very light two-seater plane powered by two electric motors, with a relative speed and carrying capacity far lower than those required by commercial carriers. However, </p>
<p>Within the next decade, this technology may extend to short-range commuter and business aircraft – especially targeting routes that still use conventional <a href="https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/airplane/aturbp.html">propeller propulsion</a>. Airbus has <a href="http://www.airbusgroup.com/int/en/innovation-citizenship/airbus-e-fan-the-future-of-electric-aircraft/e-aircraft-roadmap.html">medium-term plans</a> for such an aircraft, with a target capacity of perhaps 60 passengers – making it a suitable platform for short-haul commuter flights.</p>
<p>Safety and reliability must be addressed before electric aircraft are adopted by commercial airlines. Much as the electric car still has to achieve a critical level of public confidence, perceived reliability will have a significant impact on consumer trust in new aircraft. </p>
<p>If prototypes such as the E-Fan can build public confidence, this may mark a “tipping point” in overcoming the technical challenges inherent in any new form of transportation, especially in aviation which has a track record of rapid innovation. Advances – particularly in new materials, storage and power electronics technology – may offer the prospect of purely electric commercial aircraft within the next two decades.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45817/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Wilson receives funding from Clean Sky (EU). He is affiliated with the IEEE Power Electronics Society.</span></em></p>With emissions targets to hit and oil running out, it’s time to take electric planes seriously.Peter Wilson, Professor of Electronics & Systems Engineering, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/460942015-08-14T05:35:38Z2015-08-14T05:35:38ZTransport’s innovation problem: why haven’t flying cars taken off?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91785/original/image-20150813-21425-13l9ct6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/x-ray_delta_one/4149520882/">James Vaughan (artist: Jim Powers)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flying cars in The Jetsons and Back to the Future, or Star Trek’s spaceships and teleportation, may have captured the imagination decades ago, but most current methods of transport have been around a long time. Railways were being rolled out rapidly from the 1830s, while the commercial breakthroughs in petrol and diesel engines date to 1876 and 1892 respectively. Even the jet engine that made mass aviation possible can be traced back to Frank Whittle’s first patent in 1932.</p>
<p>Despite decades of futuristic predictions, modern transport wouldn’t look all that different to someone from the 1950s – certainly not compared to communications or entertainment. So why has there been so little recent innovation in transport? And will the latest batch of proposed <a href="https://theconversation.com/robocabs-how-long-before-you-ditch-your-car-for-a-driverless-electric-taxi-44329">driverless cars</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-rail-travel-and-why-it-doesnt-look-like-hyperloop-45354">levitating trains</a> and electric aircraft actually make a serious breakthrough?</p>
<p>In part, there hasn’t been a revolution because existing technologies have been able to evolve. Engines have become more efficient, fuel is higher quality, we have lighter materials, more aerodynamic designs and better brakes that mean vehicles can operate safely closer together. However, eventually there will be a limit to these evolutions.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91793/original/image-20150813-21409-169irxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91793/original/image-20150813-21409-169irxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91793/original/image-20150813-21409-169irxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91793/original/image-20150813-21409-169irxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91793/original/image-20150813-21409-169irxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91793/original/image-20150813-21409-169irxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1258&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91793/original/image-20150813-21409-169irxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91793/original/image-20150813-21409-169irxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1258&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We’re still waiting for the future of the 50s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/x-ray_delta_one/4186930452/">James Vaughan</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In any event, transport is not just about technology. It is also about people – and people don’t always like change. We may be locked in to current technology, partly due to habit but also due to economics. </p>
<p>We have an extensive transport refuelling system based on petrol and diesel. To convert to electricity or, more fancifully, to <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33005362">hydrogen</a>, will involve substantial re-tooling that will be difficult to finance. In the UK, drivers are used to manual transmissions and may be reluctant to <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-are-a-catch-22-we-do-none-of-the-driving-but-take-all-of-the-responsibility-43285">learn how to use more automated systems</a>, just as we would be reluctant to retrain to use a different keyboard even if it were more efficient. We are stuck with what we have – <a href="http://discovermagazine.com/1997/apr/thecurseofqwerty1099">the economics of QWERTY</a>. </p>
<p>Human factors may lead to unintended consequences – one of the ironies of automation is that it can lead to less attention to related tasks. For example adaptive cruise control can make car drivers <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16253946">less aware of hazards</a>.</p>
<p>Even with full automation, when we still have trouble <a href="http://motherboard.vice.com/read/why-dont-we-have-driverless-trains-yet">making all trains driverless</a>, one might suggest driverless cars are a flight of fancy. Innovative aeroplane designs, such as the blended wing, are stymied by the human requirements for a window seat (NASA has suggested windows could be replaced with <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/factsheets/FS-2003-11-81-LaRC.html">real-time video</a>).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91788/original/image-20150813-21416-1sh3e7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91788/original/image-20150813-21416-1sh3e7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91788/original/image-20150813-21416-1sh3e7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91788/original/image-20150813-21416-1sh3e7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91788/original/image-20150813-21416-1sh3e7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91788/original/image-20150813-21416-1sh3e7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91788/original/image-20150813-21416-1sh3e7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91788/original/image-20150813-21416-1sh3e7q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The wing blends into the main body of the aircraft – but where are the windows?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Boeing_advanced_blended_wing_body_concept_2011.jpg">NASA / Boeing</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fancy new inventions have to be accompanied by a business model and the right infrastructure, or else they’ll just languish as prototypes like the <a href="http://gizmodo.com/how-one-inventor-secretly-built-a-pneumatic-subway-unde-1123695775">pneumatic transit system</a> demonstrated in New York City in the early 1870s and a forerunner to Elon Musk’s proposed <a href="https://theconversation.com/hyperloop-and-the-future-of-ground-transport-17020">Hyperloop</a>. Take flying cars. Even supposing the technology works, where would they land? </p>
<p>Such a system would only succeed if infrastructure – air traffic control, landing space and so on – was set aside. While flying cars could technically operate from airport to airport, what’s the point? Until there are sufficient numbers to set aside pieces of land or roads for takeoff we won’t achieve any of the benefits. And there won’t be sufficient demand until this land is set aside. Catch 22.</p>
<h2>Trapped in the niche</h2>
<p>When looking at how technology interacts with wider society it’s helpful to think in terms of <a href="https://orca-mwe.cf.ac.uk/31214/1/Multi-level%20perspective%2010.1016j.jtrangeo.2012.01.022.pdf">three different levels</a>: niches, regimes and landscapes. </p>
<p>In transport, there are plenty of niche innovations – battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells, car clubs – but few become mainstream. An exception might be hybrid electric vehicles such the Toyota Prius, but even here the underlying technology may be traced back to a patent registered in 1898 (by <a href="http://www.popsci.com/article/cars/gallery-electric-porsche-1898">Ferdinand Porsche</a>, no less). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91794/original/image-20150813-21393-mc0gkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/91794/original/image-20150813-21393-mc0gkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91794/original/image-20150813-21393-mc0gkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91794/original/image-20150813-21393-mc0gkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91794/original/image-20150813-21393-mc0gkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91794/original/image-20150813-21393-mc0gkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/91794/original/image-20150813-21393-mc0gkg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first Porsche – and the first hybrid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lohner_Porsche.jpg">wiki</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The problem isn’t coming up with new ideas – it’s changing the bigger picture. At regime level, new transport technologies have faced resistance from vested interests such as oil producers and car makers. And the wider landscape has not always favoured major innovations – especially low oil prices. </p>
<p>With lots of different individual suppliers, transport is also vulnerable to <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243.full">tragedy of the commons</a>-type outcomes and clashes between rival designs and brands. Navigation technologies can only be sold commercially if they benefit the individual consumer. However, if we all have access to such technologies, we can be collectively worse off due to congestion – for the greater good, it would be beneficial if sometimes our SatNav sends us on a longer route, but who is knowingly going to buy something like that? </p>
<p>Electric battery technology might have more rapid adoption if the technology was standardised, permitting automated battery swaps. But standardised to whose technology? Magnetic levitation train adoption is limited by the fact they can’t run on traditional rail lines and have only <a href="http://www.witpress.com/elibrary/wit-transactions-on-the-built-environment/114/21445">limited overlap</a> with other maglevs.</p>
<p>In short, despite the fuss over disruptive technologies such as Uber, it is unlikely that transport will have a technology paradigm shift until there is a major landscape change. Of course, with <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33022390">volatile oil prices</a>, limited reserves and sensitive geopolitics, such a change could be just round the corner. But for the moment the technology push does not seem to be complemented by a societal pull – people might like to watch sci-fi, but they aren’t yet ready to live it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46094/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Preston has worked on research projects on infrastructure transitions and sustainable transport infrastructure for the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Waterson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite futuristic predictions, planes, cars and trains haven’t changed much for decades.John Preston, Head of the Transportation Research Group , University of SouthamptonBen Waterson, Lecturer in Transportation, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/453532015-08-07T05:29:20Z2015-08-07T05:29:20ZCity transport needs saving from itself – here’s how to do it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90481/original/image-20150731-17135-14vf3ph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Clemens v. Vogelsang/flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cities are growing rapidly. According to UN estimates, the <a href="http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/swm_cities_zaragoza_2010/pdf/facts_and_figures_long_final_eng.pdf">world’s urban population grows by two people</a> every second, 7,200 every hour. This means that within two decades, nearly 60% of the world’s population – five billion people – will be city dwellers. In Europe, this figure is already higher – <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Statistics_on_European_cities">four out of five people</a> (80%) live in cities.</p>
<p>Rapid urbanisation comes with a series of challenges and opportunities for cities. For example, urban areas are responsible for 70% of greenhouse gas emissions and <a href="http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/swm_cities_zaragoza_2010/pdf/facts_and_figures_long_final_eng.pdf">consume three-quarters of the world’s resources</a>. But there are ways cities can address these and other challenges in an integrated way providing safety, security, good quality of life and environmental sustainability.</p>
<p>To do this we must make cities “smart”, by using computer systems and the internet to better balance demand for things like energy, transport and waste management with secure and reliable supply. This will increase the resilience of our infrastructure to both man-made and natural disasters, and reduces cities’ ecological footprint.</p>
<h2>Cars as batteries</h2>
<p>Already cities are electrifying their mobility services, with electric cars gaining popularity alongside the electrification of rail networks, trams and bus routes. This reduces transport emissions – a major cause of air pollution in cities, but which also has an impact on the grid. The challenge is to integrate them.</p>
<p>Some <a href="http://w3.usa.siemens.com/powerdistribution/us/en/product-portfolio/electricvehicle/versicharge/Pages/ResidentialSG.aspx">smart phone apps</a> already do this in a way, allowing drivers to schedule the charging of their electric vehicles (EVs) at night when electricity is cheaper. But through smart grid technologies, cities are moving towards dynamic demand responsive charging, where EVs are automatically charged at times when electricity demand is lowest or when <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/239317/ultra-low-emission-vehicle-strategy.pdf">excess renewable energy is available</a>. Smart grids can match charging patterns to the intermittency of renewables such as wind and solar.</p>
<p>Ultimately, EVs could be used as a back-up power supply for our homes during peak times or in emergencies. What’s more, old EV batteries could be reused as back-up to meet short-term peak demand in other systems – for example anaerobic digesters (which break down organic waste to produce biogas) or other energy technologies that otherwise would <a href="http://www.ncl.ac.uk/sustainability/funding/secondlifebatteries.htm">require costly upgrades to connect to the grid</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90482/original/image-20150731-17172-1r5utid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90482/original/image-20150731-17172-1r5utid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90482/original/image-20150731-17172-1r5utid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90482/original/image-20150731-17172-1r5utid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90482/original/image-20150731-17172-1r5utid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90482/original/image-20150731-17172-1r5utid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90482/original/image-20150731-17172-1r5utid.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Complex intelligence needed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gaellery/2280539366/in/photolist-4twmUf-p2EA2N-4xKD3c-qixk9G-ux23uj-64RF79-638r5y-zdtLV-pkP9Rq-purhv2-7U6DTe-o1cAuj-3HYuJr-7XAyWd-4eywz9-bf26Mn-f3uhBW-evEVxG-jwBjrb-o5XGrU-h7ZnxK-aFkUV5-e1CVma-6fThcC-rKwVn9-m6TcQp-hQWjZy-bejzdX-6kdRMF-j7aLoX-azc2Xr-dXW1zi-7JLWV-dadwuc-nQhXJA-pxZ97M-jQPfea-3KzUGb-4pnmSC-8P9D6K-9dGC5B-9jyCF7-amQ9fh-dhdxan-eZD2f3-dhPaxU-dYV4XH-cbHBBj-vo5TaU-ier9H3">Gaellery/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many <a href="http://time.com/3769773/traffic-congestion-tomtom-survey/">cities are grid-locked</a> and are struggling to address congestion on their roads and rail networks. To increase capacity, we have a choice between expanding our existing infrastructure, or to use it more intelligently. Instead of infrastructure upgrades that take decades to plan, smart cities use high-speed internet access and sensors to inform, manage, and nudge individuals and freight operators to optimise their journeys.</p>
<p>A trial from the EU-funded <a href="http://www.compass4d.eu/">Compass4D project</a> equipped key routes in seven EU cities with intelligent traffic lights that provide speed advice to drivers that cross them. This allows the drivers to receive information on a sat nav on how fast to drive in order to get through a series of green traffic lights. It reduces fuel consumption and helps the driver adopt an eco-driving style, reducing emissions in congested urban areas. Early results from the trial show that the use of Compass4D yielded improvements in average journey times, speeds, time spent stationary and power consumption.</p>
<h2>Smarter traffic control</h2>
<p>The same technology can be used to give priority at intersections for certain vehicle types, such as emergency vehicles to allow them to reach an incident more quickly. Similarly, delayed buses could be given priority at smart intersections, making public transport more reliable and attractive to commuters. Estimates have shown that implementing this technology along all bus priority routes in the northeast of England (approximately 65km of road) would cost the same as laying 200 metres of new asphalt.</p>
<p>Ultimately, this technology could be used to better manage the movement of freight vehicles within urban areas. Trucks could be platooned together and drive autonomously in a convoy or they could be given priority on roads designated as freight corridors, making logistics operations both more energy efficient and reliable.</p>
<p>There are a wide variety of benefits to smart cities but to take full advantage of them they need to be tested at scale and within different contexts as not all cities are the same. They require thinking differently about how we live in cities and improving our understanding of the interaction between cities’ energy, water, transport, waste and digital control systems.</p>
<p>Smart cities are not without risks. The scale and complexity of these urban networks coupled with their ever growing interdependencies could also potentially increase vulnerabilities to climate change and terrorist threats. But the opportunities for managing cities in a more efficient and cost-effective manner are simply too great to not be taken up.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45353/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yvonne Huebner receives funding from the European Commission, EPSRC, UK Government and Innovate UK.</span></em></p>Worldwide, everyone’s moving to the city - we need to work smart to stay moving and avoid global gridlock.Yvonne Huebner, Science central inward investment manager, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/442042015-08-06T05:33:14Z2015-08-06T05:33:14ZResearchers are looking to a surprisingly old idea for the next generation of ships: wind power<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90449/original/image-20150731-17158-r5iv1d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">University of Tokyo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In many ways, it’s an obvious solution. For many centuries, world trade over the oceans was propelled by wind power alone. Now that we’re seeking an alternative to the fossil fuel-burning vehicles that enable our modern standard of living, some people are turning again to renewable solutions such as wind to power our tankers, bulk carriers and container ships. Globalisation and economic growth might mean a direct reversion to the wooden sailing boats of yore makes no sense, but there are several 21st-century ideas that could make wind-powered shipping commonplace again.</p>
<p>Ship design certainly has a way to go to return to its heritage and take advantage of the wind’s free, renewable resource in the same way we have reinvented the windmill to produce electricity. However, it’s worth remembering <a href="http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/3-540-29284-5">wind turbines</a> took a long time to evolve into the structures optimised and deployed at scale we have today. In fact, they’re still developing. Scientists and engineers have debated for years about the relative merits of two, three or more blades, of horizontal versus vertical configurations, and of onshore versus offshore generation.</p>
<p>For ships, the design process for wind technologies is potentially even more complicated and multi-dimensional. There are soft sails, rigid “wing” sails, flettner rotors (a spinning cylindrical vertical column that creates lift using the <a href="http://www.britannica.com/science/Magnus-effect">Magnus effect</a>, originally <a href="http://www.compositesworld.com/articles/sailing-the-sea-with-composite-wings">conceived by Flettner</a> in the 1920s) and kites all vying for a share of this market. Soft sails are fabric sails, most reminiscent of existing sailing ship designs, examples include the Dynarig and <a href="http://www.smartgreenshippingalliance.com/fastrigs/">Fastrig</a>. Rigid wing sails replace the fabric with a rigid lifting surface like a vertically mounted aircraft wing - for example the <a href="http://oceanfoil.com">oceanfoil design</a>. </p>
<p>A flettner rotor is a vertical cylinder rotated by a motor. The rotation modifies the air flowing around the cylinder to generate lift much like the lift generated by an aircraft wing (it’s referred to as the Magnus effect). While there are many examples of all four, so far it’s the kites and the flettners that have seen the most significant implementation on large merchant ship designs. </p>
<p>Notable examples include the work that <a href="http://www.cargill.com/news/releases/2011/NA3040908.jsp">Cargill</a> and <a href="http://www.wessels.de/index.php?ID=78&action=article&articles_ID=143">Wessels </a>have done trialing kite systems , and the experience of two separate operators, <a href="http://www.enercon.de/en-en/2224.htm">Enercon</a> and <a href="http://www.norsepower.com/SiteAssets/news/Norsepower%20Press%20Release%202015-06-01%20EN%20FI%20SE.pdf">Norsepower</a> with installations of different flettner designs on different ships. These trials have produced important full-scale experience, lessons about costs, performance data, and evidence for investment cases. All of which are undoubtedly taking us closer to the tipping point when wind once again becomes a ‘no brainer’.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90451/original/image-20150731-17143-n1lzcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90451/original/image-20150731-17143-n1lzcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90451/original/image-20150731-17143-n1lzcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90451/original/image-20150731-17143-n1lzcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90451/original/image-20150731-17143-n1lzcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90451/original/image-20150731-17143-n1lzcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90451/original/image-20150731-17143-n1lzcn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Enercon’s E-Ship 1 with flettners.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cargo_E-Ship_1,_Emder_Hafen,_CN-02.jpg">Carschen/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trials of these new technologies, in combination with the history of wind turbines, can help us understand why any transition to modern wind-powered ships won’t happen overnight. For one thing, no one yet knows which of the many candidate designs will be the most successful.</p>
<p>Modern wind-powered shipping technology also carries a significant engineering challenge that wind turbines don’t: it needs to be mobile. It’s not as simple as bolting a rig to the deck. The highest safety standards have to be maintained and the rig must pose no constraints to loading and unloading cargoes in an uncertain and wide range of different ports (many of which might be obstructed by bridges). </p>
<p>Resolving these issues will take time, money and investors with the appetite for risk and stamina to see an emerging technology from a prototype to a fully developed new product. But I believe the change will happen because of the price of fossil fuels and environmental regulation. Wind power is free so the technology will become a worthwhile investment once it can be clearly evidenced that the saving from moving away from fossil fuels outweighs the costs of installing and operating a wind-powered ship. </p>
<p>Many think that threshold oil price has already been achieved and exceeded, as evidenced by the large and <a href="http://wind-ship.org/wasp/">growing number of projects</a> proposing wind propulsion solutions, even allowing for the recent fall in oil prices. </p>
<p>While there is currently only weak regulation on shipping’s greenhouse gas emissons, the sector – like all those producing carbon dioxide – is likely to face more stringent controls as its <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/Greenhouse-Gas-Studies-2014.aspx">emissions continue to grow</a>. Exactly what form such controls will take remains the subject of further ongoing work. But any meaningful regulation would reinforce the case for wind-powered shipping as a favourable investment.</p>
<p>Shipping is a vital, if somewhat hidden, part of modern economies. Decarbonising those economies is the only way to avoid destroying them (and the environment). Wind power presents an astoundingly obvious and elegant solution to these combined challenges. But it will languish in the sidelines until we see rapid change from investors, politicians, or ideally both.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44204/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tristan Smith consults to a number of organisations on the subject of wind assistance technologies. He receives funding from both the UK government, and a number of industry and NGO parties, to undertake work to understand the mix of technologies (including wind assistance) and policy solutions which might enable shipping to transition to lower carbon emissions.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nishatabbas Rehmatulla works for UCL Energy Institute and receives funding from the UK government (EPSRC) and a number of industry parties and NGO's to undertake research on barriers to implementation of technologies that enable shipping to reduce its CO2 emissions.</span></em></p>Innovative ideas about how to decarbonise shipping are helping to harness the original renewable power source once more.Tristan Smith, Lecturer in energy and transport, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/444492015-08-05T05:33:23Z2015-08-05T05:33:23ZForget the Silicon Valley revolution: the future of transport looks remarkably familiar<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90475/original/image-20150731-17164-1x17g1m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lokan/14503213895/in/photolist-o6ALcZ-bJKZV8-e6YZpf-punnw2-eaKSGk-6tnhM8-4dF2sk-6bvdEM-m3q93g-nysWzS-cQuUr7-qmy9rk-5sPyJW-5JnPJx-4TWFsm-4TTi5m-pc4kDh-kWWk1M-6jB1hV-achKKL-5rJV6J-4Z6sAg-51RNbc-6e5tfs-4TSskP-8c1FDT-dYzppH-cN4dyu-6vMvEg-79po9V-5WsEdW-6jB1wB-9yeZRx-dC6ReK-m8v1Wc-oBiFXb-6bzn7G-7TR3js-kTwfH2-fkTmT1-dSr7iR-4XARu6-5RDG63-ecnD1g-mirHWs-gv3Jwu-97AxF3-3ZTP4K-7Vm6Nq-6zpBTQ">Lokan Sadari/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>From autonomous vehicles and the <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewbender/2015/04/10/ubers-astounding-rise-overtaking-taxis-in-key-markets/">rapid rise of Uber</a> to the global diffusion of <a href="http://bikes.oobrien.com/global.php#zoom=3&lon=-60.0000&lat=25.0000">bike-sharing schemes</a>, transport is changing. Developments in information technology, transport policy and behaviour by urban populations may well be causing a wholesale shift away from conventional cars to collective, automated and low-carbon transport. </p>
<p>Yet there are still many uncertainties in technology development, finance and trends in user practices and expectations about the scale of these changes may well be inflated.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most significant development is “<a href="http://theconversation.com/peak-car-means-we-might-get-much-closer-to-our-carbon-targets-than-we-realised-44398">peak car</a>” use – the stalled growth or modest decline in car ownership and use since around 1990 across the developed world. As well as economic reasons and the returning popularity of city living, this seems to be driven in part by a move away from pro-car planning. Metropolitan governments in particular are increasingly <a href="https://books.google.nl/books?hl=nl&lr=&id=-ZYkCgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PR2&dq=kenworthy+newman&ots=DympifxHYw&sig=SY2wKYCT2pmR9SF2XqOOIgd-Sec#v=onepage&q=kenworthy%20newman&f=false">reallocating road space away from private cars</a> and concentrating office and housing developments around public transport stations. </p>
<p>They are even supporting <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/6/7086">a wide range of innovations</a> in local transport, including <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10432237/Driverless-cars-to-run-in-Milton-Keynes.html">self-driving pod cars</a> called up by a smartphone app. All these initiatives aim to <a href="https://www.openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/12233">reinvent “old” transport systems</a> – metro, tram and cycling – as efficient, fashionable and healthy, enabling both economic growth and a better quality of life. </p>
<h2>Public transport problems</h2>
<p>However, public transport still faces significant challenges. Research consistently shows that <a href="https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/4107770">satisfaction with tripmaking</a> is lower on bus and rail than on other forms of transport. The industrial-era logic of only offering services at particular stops or stations at specific times sits uncomfortably with the changing rhythms of work, shopping, care-giving and leisure in post-industrial societies.</p>
<p>These service provision problems are particularly acute in suburbs (and of course rural areas) where the flexibility afforded by private cars continues to be the norm. Yet, even in the densest parts of cities, public transport only meets everyone’s needs when there are more flexible options as well. This is why greater public transport use is linked to, and to some extent triggers, increased use of cycling and, more recently, smartphone-enabled taxi services.</p>
<p>These forms of transport are available (almost) everywhere at all times – and therefore better compatible with the individualised lifestyles of people accustomed to the convenience that private car use epitomises. But even bike and car-sharing schemes with fixed docking stations and parking bays suffer from some of the same limitations as public transport does. The future may well be brighter for smartphone-dependent “free-floating” schemes, whereby cars can be picked up and left at any location within a designated zone that stretches across a city or parts thereof.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90474/original/image-20150731-17151-xbmkwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90474/original/image-20150731-17151-xbmkwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90474/original/image-20150731-17151-xbmkwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90474/original/image-20150731-17151-xbmkwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90474/original/image-20150731-17151-xbmkwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90474/original/image-20150731-17151-xbmkwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90474/original/image-20150731-17151-xbmkwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pod to the future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department for Transport/flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are also big obstacles to a public transport revolution in the form of entrenched government patterns and vested interests. Past planning decisions, in particular, constrain current and future changes in transport systems. This is because the construction of road infrastructure, sprawling suburbs, car-dependent retail/leisure complexes and mono-functional business areas since the 1950s is largely irreversible, at least for the coming decades.</p>
<h2>Industry fightback</h2>
<p>The car industry remains powerful and does not sit still. In many countries, car manufacturing continues to be important to the national economy and can therefore count on considerable support from local, national and supranational (EU) governments. This is exemplified by the UK government’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/office-for-low-emission-vehicles">Office for Low Emission Vehicles</a> which was set up to stimulate the uptake of electric and other low-carbon vehicles.</p>
<p>Car manufacturers may now be experiencing competition from powerful technology companies such as <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/raymond-james-apple-google-enemies-auto-industry-carplay-android-2015-6">Google and Apple</a>, but this is catalysing their own development of innovations. The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-27587558">Google driverless car</a> may be the most famous but the first such vehicles from conventional manufacturers are <a href="http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=384">expected to hit the market</a> by 2017-2018.</p>
<p>Many hurdles still need to be overcome. The technology needs substantial refining, major issues around insurance and liability need to be resolved, it is not clear how adaptations to road infrastructure will be financed, and public opinion is divided. Based on experiences with <a href="http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Samarthia_Thankappan/publication/236960205_Socio-technical_inertia_understanding_the_barriers_to_electric_vehicles/links/0c96051d27e50a0e3e000000.pdf">electric</a> and <a href="http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Geels/publication/257425557_A_socio-technical_analysis_of_low-carbon_transitions_introducing_the_multi-level_perspective_into_transport_studies/links/0046353c64557c999a000000.pdf">fuel cell</a> cars in recent decades, current expectations about commercialisation and consumer uptake are (vastly) over-optimistic. </p>
<p>Unexpected and unforeseeable events may radically reshape current development trajectories, but there are good reasons to expect that transport systems in 30 years will not be drastically different from today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44449/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Schwanen receives funding from EPSRC and ESRC which finances his involvement in the Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand (<a href="http://www.cied.ac.uk">www.cied.ac.uk</a>)</span></em></p>Despite disruptive innovation and significant investment in public transport, our old ways of travelling look here to stay.Tim Schwanen, Associate Professor in Transport Studies and Director of the Transport Studies Unit (from September 2015), University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/453542015-08-04T14:06:49Z2015-08-04T14:06:49ZThe future of rail travel, and why it doesn’t look like Hyperloop<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90479/original/image-20150731-17139-1ipj0tg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mdgovpics/18277037338/in/photolist-d7G455-d7G3JU-d7G2Zw-d7G2FA-d7G2tW-d7G2fs-d7G1Bu-d7G1no-d7G1d9-d7G12L-d7FZxE-dvxjzy-tbQxkr-u8QUmH-u8FH9p-u8FFs8-tbEjEC-u6m8eb-tRedoR-u8QFjv-tbEc3U-tR5Rub-tbE8tE-tbQaJF-u6kUd1-tbQ6Ug-u6kPRA-tR68MJ-tbQ12K-tR5Arq-tR62Gh-u8F8Ax-u8F6rc-tRdJ1D-u8F2xF-u6kwrW-tR5PMW-tR5N7w-u8EUX6-u8hUMN-u6knN3-tR5FeU-u8PXig-u8PUyD-tbPuG2-tRdnkv-tbDo1C-tbDmfy-tR4ZgW-u8hAWC">Maryland GovPics/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the world’s population becomes <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/publications/2014-revision-world-urbanization-prospects.html">increasingly urbanised</a>, it is estimated that the number of journeys measured in passenger-kilometres <a href="http://www.uitp.org/sites/default/files/members/140124%20Arthur%20D.%20Little%20%26%20UITP_Future%20of%20Urban%20Mobility%202%200_Full%20study.pdf">will triple</a> by 2050. Roads simply can’t absorb this increase.</p>
<p>Railways, with their greater capacity for carrying more people, quickly and with greater energy efficiency, are the best bet to become our mobility backbone. Of course, engineers’ imaginations have created many alternatives to the original steel-on-steel approach to the railway. Maglev and the much-publicised but so far theoretical Hyperloop are often regarded as the ones to watch – but do they really represent the future of rail travel?</p>
<h2>Maglev</h2>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Wv4a89bGCxU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Magnetic levitation (maglev) uses powerful magnets to propel the train along dedicated lines that are as straight as possible. The attractive forces between electronically controlled electromagnets in the vehicle and the ferromagnetic guide rails pull the vehicle up, while additional guidance magnets keep it laterally on track. This version of the technology was <a href="http://www.thyssenkrupp.com/documents/transrapid/TRI_Flug_Hoehe_e_5_021.pdf">developed in Germany</a> and is currently used to link Shanghai airport with the city centre at <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/jan/01/china.johngittings">speeds of 430kph (267mph)</a>. </p>
<p>However it’s perhaps Japan that is most associated with maglev. The nation that established the modern era of high-speed trains is also attempting to define the next chapter. Superconducting magnetic levitation (SCMaglev) has been in development for decades but was <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/10/19/fifty-years-after-the-bullet-train-japan-approves-plan-to-build-super-speed-maglev-train-line/">recently approved</a> to run from Tokyo to Osaka from 2027, when it will complete the 500km (311 mile) journey in just over an hour. Unlike the Transrapid system in Shanghai, the <a href="http://www.seas.upenn.edu/%7Evuchic/maglev.pdf">Japanese maglev principle</a> uses more powerful “superconducting” magnets and a guideway design based on repulsive rather than attractive forces.</p>
<p>But while maglev is technically possible, its commercial viability is questionable. There is an extremely high initial infrastructure cost – Japan’s SCMaglev line is expected to <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e587e10c-5047-11e3-9f0d-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3hNoY7A81">cost ¥9 trillion (US$72 billion</a>. It also cannot be integrated with existing rail networks and has a phenomenal energy demand, during both construction and operation. This casts serious doubts about maglev’s true potential <a href="http://www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/whitepapers/whitepapercm7176/railwhitepapersupportingdocs/railwhitepapermaglevreport.pdf">as an alternative</a> to conventional high-speed technology.</p>
<h2>Hyperloop</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90480/original/image-20150731-17158-4x1z86.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90480/original/image-20150731-17158-4x1z86.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90480/original/image-20150731-17158-4x1z86.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90480/original/image-20150731-17158-4x1z86.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90480/original/image-20150731-17158-4x1z86.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90480/original/image-20150731-17158-4x1z86.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90480/original/image-20150731-17158-4x1z86.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fifth mode of transport?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hyperloop Transportation Technologies</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hyperloop is an <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/07/us-austria-usa-hyperloop-idUKKCN0PH1GQ20150707">elegant idea</a>: travelling seamlessly at 1,220kph (that’s right, 760mph – just under the speed of sound) in gracefully designed pods that arrive as often as every 30 seconds is very appealing. The concept is based around very straight tubes with a partial vacuum applied under the pods. These pods have an electric compressor fan on their nose which actively transfers high-pressure air from the front to the rear, creating an air cushion once a linear electric motor has launched the pod. All this would be battery and solar powered. </p>
<p>Technically it’s a challenging design, although if someone can make it happen it’s the man who proposed the idea, <a href="https://theconversation.com/elon-musk-biography-portrays-a-brutal-character-driven-by-lofty-dreams-41995">Elon Musk</a>, the man behind SpaceX and Tesla. However, Hyperloop is not rail travel. It is, as Musk puts it, a fifth mode of transport (after trains, cars, boats and planes). It’s designed to link Los Angeles to San Francisco; cities hundreds of miles apart that can be connected in an almost straight line over a relative flat landscape. This simply isn’t an option in much of the world.</p>
<p>Ultimately, if Hyperloop happens at all it will be a stand-alone system. It’s no substitute for rail.</p>
<h2>What else?</h2>
<p>In practice, the vast majority of us will continue to travel on trains that are not dissimilar to those that are around today. The UK is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31831603">about to take delivery</a> of 122 trains that will be the workhorses of most intercity travel for decades to come. They could still be in service come 2050, albeit following several refurbishments. </p>
<p>Greater automation are expected to dominate not just rail but all types of travel. Automatic train operation is already used in some urban railways which allows for shorter distances between trains on the same line. It is anticipated that in the future all mainline trains will be able to communicate with each other, meaning significantly more trains on the track, increasing capacity and service levels. This in turn will make physical line-side signalling equipment redundant, leading to more simple layouts for new lines. Better use of energy on electrically powered intercity rail travel will likely play a significant role. For instance, energy storage systems and advanced substations will allow a shift to smarter rail systems.</p>
<p>Future predictions are to be treated with caution. But state-of-the-art railway investment around the globe is still largely based on the steel-on-steel principle of trains on tracks. And there’s no reason to doubt that this will be the define future of rail travel in coming decades – just as it has done since the birth of rail nearly 200 years ago.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roberto Palacin receives funding from European Commission, RSSB and FutureRailway</span></em></p>There are cutting edge technologies on the cards, but can anything displace railways?Roberto Palacin, Senior research associate, Railway Systems Research Group, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/443982015-08-03T11:19:22Z2015-08-03T11:19:22Z‘Peak car’ means we might get much closer to our carbon targets than we realised<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90436/original/image-20150731-17143-1fulha9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cars are one of the biggest threats to the planet. The transport sector accounts for more than <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2014.pdf">60% of global oil consumption</a> and about a quarter of energy-related carbon emissions, and it’s seen as harder to decarbonise than other parts of the economy. Typical forecasts of future world vehicle ownership point to substantial increases, particularly in the developing economies.</p>
<p>But the problem of transport-related greenhouse gases may be less than generally thought. There is <a href="http://www.oecdbookshop.org/browse.asp?pid=title-detail&lang=en&ds=&ISB=9789282105924">emerging evidence</a> that individual car use, as measured by the average annual distance travelled, has ceased to grow in most of the developed economies, starting well before the recent recession. In some countries, it may already be declining, a phenomenon known as “<a href="http://peakcar.org/">peak car</a>”. </p>
<p>A number of factors could could contribute to this trend. <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01441647.2013.800615">Suggestions</a> have included a decline in younger people holding driver’s licences, changes to company car taxation and technological constraints that stop us travelling faster on roads. And it may be we have simply sufficient daily travel to meet our needs.</p>
<p>There has also been a shift away from car use in urban areas. This could be particularly important in a world where future population growth will be mainly urban and densely populated cities are seen as a driver for economic growth.</p>
<h2>City living</h2>
<p>For example, over the past 20 years the population of London has been growing and incomes have been rising, but <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/travel-in-london-report-7.pdf">car use</a> has held steady at about 10m trips a day. This is mainly because the city has not increased road capacity but instead has invested in public transport. Most importantly, rail offers speedy and reliable travel for work journeys compared with the car on congested roads. This gets business and professional people out of their cars, which makes the city a less congested and more agreeable place to be.</p>
<p>With a growing population but static car use, London has seen a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/science/article/pii/S2213624X15300018">marked decline</a> in the share of journeys by car, from 50% of all trips in 1990 to 37% currently. With continued population growth projected and more investment in rail planned, the share of trips by car could fall to 27% by mid-century. There is every reason to suppose that London will continue to thrive as car use declines – and perhaps because car use declines.</p>
<p>This decrease in car use from 1990 was preceded by a 40-year period of growth from 1950, the result of rising incomes leading to increased car ownership – and, at the same time, a falling population as people left an overcrowded damaged city for new towns, garden cities and greener surroundings. So we see a marked peak in car use at around 1990, the time when the population of London was at a minimum, which was when attitudes to city living began to change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89922/original/image-20150728-13725-cecaas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/89922/original/image-20150728-13725-cecaas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89922/original/image-20150728-13725-cecaas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89922/original/image-20150728-13725-cecaas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89922/original/image-20150728-13725-cecaas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89922/original/image-20150728-13725-cecaas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/89922/original/image-20150728-13725-cecaas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screenshot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Metz, D. 'Peak Car in the Big City: Reducing London's transport greenhouse gas emissions', Case Studies on Transport Policy, 2015 (available online)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Wider phenomenon</h2>
<p>This phenomenon of peak car in big cities is not unique to London, although this is the city for which we have the best data. There is evidence for something similar happening in Birmingham, Manchester and other British cities as well as those in other developed countries. The shift in economies from manufacturing to services is an important driver, as is the growth of higher education located in city centres, attracting young people for whom the car is not part of their lifestyle.</p>
<p>If car use has really peaked, both in the sense of national per capita figures and the share of trips in cities, it should help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from transport. I have <a href="http://peakcar.org/peak-car-in-the-big-city-is-reducing-transport-greenhouse-gas-emissions/">estimated</a> that these changes in behaviour, taken together with expected developments of low-emission vehicles, could by 2050 reduce UK surface transport greenhouse gas emissions by 60% compared with 1990. This falls short of the overall target of an <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/the-legal-landscape/global-action-on-climate-change/">80% reduction</a>, but is a good deal better than conventional projections.</p>
<p>Peak car is not just an emerging phenomenon to be investigated. It is a helpful trend to be encouraged, to achieve both successful, sustainable cities and national reduction of transport greenhouse gas emissions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44398/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Metz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The resurgence of cities is set to help us make our dependence on gas-guzzling personal transport a thing of the past.David Metz, Visitng professor, transport studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/443992015-08-03T05:28:10Z2015-08-03T05:28:10ZHere’s how we can save the car – and the planet at the same time<p>Passenger cars are still the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/264679/tsgb-2013.pdf">most popular transportation</a> mode. In 2014 nearly <a href="http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/">68m</a> were produced globally. They’re not only a vital part of our economy and our personal lives but also an important social and cultural tool, used to present a certain image and status – real or imagined. </p>
<p>Our entrenched reliance on – and attachment to – this method of travel means that, even if we shift away from such widespread car ownership, we need to change our perception of what cars are if we want to mitigate their high environmental costs.</p>
<p>This doesn’t just mean moving to electric vehicles. Just at the resource extraction level, roughly <a href="http://www.volkswagenag.com/content/vwcorp/info_center/en/publications/2007/01/Golf_A4__Life_Cycle_Inventory.bin.html/binarystorageitem/file/golfa4_english.pdf">five tons of materials</a> are needed to produce a 1.2 ton car, creating ten tons of effluents and 2.5 tons of emissions. Processing these materials into components, assembling and distributing the cars around the world – and then using, servicing and disposing of them generates even more emissions. In total, a typical mid-size car is responsible for around <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car">17 tons of CO₂</a>.</p>
<p>The total embodied emissions for alternatively fuelled vehicles such as hybrids, electric and fuel-cell vehicles may even be higher than normal internal combustion engines – even when they produce no tail-pipe emissions (based on the as-yet unpublished <a href="https://greet.es.anl.gov/greet/index.htm">Greet2 study</a>). This is perhaps because such technologies are more energy intensive to produce due to the materials that compose them.</p>
<h2>New ideas needed</h2>
<p>So what is the alternative to the current system? If car travel is going to remain common, perhaps we need to be smarter about how we build and use them. Our cars currently spend <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=47Ps28Y4CaUC&pg=PA114&dq=cars+spend+most+of+their+time+parked&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CCEQ6AEwAGoVChMIhJ2_uaX-xgIVI4zbCh2G6w-s#v=onepage&q=cars%20spend%20most%20of%20their%20time%20parked&f=false">92% of their time</a> parked – and, when driving, most of their weight is used only to carry one person most of the time.</p>
<p>Cars could be produced in fewer numbers, to be smaller, <a href="https://www.academia.edu/14527049/Driving_In_The_Wrong_Lane_towards_a_longer_lifespan_for_cars">longer-lasting</a> and shared by more people. And instead of focusing on turning out as many new cars with relatively short lifespans as possible, manufacturers could provide more services to keep vehicles on the road for longer and deal with their disposal.</p>
<p>The role of car designers could also change. First by designing simpler basic cars, without “gimmicks” such as mood lights or massaging seats. Timeless lines rather than subject to the fads of the day. Instead of working on one project after another, the designer could be involved in an upgrading process that would see each model evolve through re-manufacturing in a more direct interaction with consumers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90435/original/image-20150731-17151-v5vy27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90435/original/image-20150731-17151-v5vy27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90435/original/image-20150731-17151-v5vy27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90435/original/image-20150731-17151-v5vy27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90435/original/image-20150731-17151-v5vy27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90435/original/image-20150731-17151-v5vy27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90435/original/image-20150731-17151-v5vy27.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gimmick-free design?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gordon_Murray_Design_T.27_RAC_Future_Car_Challenge_1.jpg">Dominic Alves</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other changes in the features of the cars themselves could also produce more sustainable models. For example, safety standards today are driven by electronic systems such as collision-avoidance and pedestrian-detection systems. These could be upgraded during service life more easily than physical features. Based on my own (as yet unpublished) research, I believe that if these systems prove to be highly reliable, there will be no need for low-speed impact structures, reducing the use of materials.</p>
<p>This model might be easier to move to than it first sounds. So-called millennials are less interested in cars than previous generations, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X1200008X">applying for driver’s licences</a> later in life and <a href="http://www.centreforcities.org/press/young-people-leading-21st-century-resurgence-in-city-centre-living/">more likely to live</a> in highly congested cities where access to public transport is easier. They are also used to sharing or renting services, for example with taxi-hailing or liftsharing apps such as Uber. Owning a car, on the other hand, is seen as an <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2014/sep/16/cost-driving-young-people-off-road">expensive liability</a>.</p>
<h2>Industry turning point</h2>
<p>The car manufacturing industry is also at a cross-roads. Powertrain options are multiplying, driverless technology is poised to make big changes and non-automotive companies <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-google-car-is-a-huge-threat-to-the-auto-industry-2015-1">including Google</a> want a share of the market. As materials <a href="http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es902909k">become more expensive</a>, relying on cars with relatively shorter lifespans to flood the market is not in anyone’s interest. Not even the car makers, who at best can only make 5% annual profit.</p>
<p>The current business model may not survive in the longer term. It may naturally make more sense for manufacturers to build and service cars as long-lasting rental products. Some electric vehicle manufacturers have already introduced rental schemes for their batteries, which are likely to need replacing far quicker than the rest of the car.</p>
<p>Extending the lifespan and the product life cycle will impact on production. Fewer cars means that the return on investment <a href="http://gala.gre.ac.uk/11886/">may take longer</a>. But it could also mean less need to update costly manufacturing tools – and factories could be made more modular and flexible to produce different types of cars in one assembly line. Plants could be more localised to meet the different needs of the different megacities of the future. And redundant assembly workers <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=c-khWRnJcmsC&oi=fnd&pg=PR1&dq=Wells+The+automotive+in+an+era&ots=D0TDiFp7WV&sig=wqhKrLLDfjTwRrFiua6AyeJxC_Y#v=onepage&q=Wells%20The%20automotive%20in%20an%20era&f=false">could be retrained</a> into servicing and maintenance or other car-related services.</p>
<p>This model would require us to think differently about cars, redefining terms such as “old” and “used” and educating consumers, especially those from older generations who are unfamiliar with sharing systems. Not all cars will survive into the future, but if we are better stewards of what we have now and learn to cherish products in a more subjective way than the market does, cars can definitely last for longer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44399/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexandre Rodrigues does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Changing habits and pollution concerns are calling time on our love affair with cars. But this doesn’t have to be the end.Alexandre Rodrigues, PhD candidate, , Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/355742014-12-18T12:04:41Z2014-12-18T12:04:41ZHow does Uber’s surge pricing work – and how ethical is it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/67502/original/image-20141217-31046-15kjo25.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Uber is as good old reliable taxis - and can be only four times the price.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-144052039/stock-photo-taxis-wait-at-a-taxi-rank-symbol-photo-for-passenger-transport-and-services.html?src=8eGs_PzwB3rvXDdWwgLrKg-1-76">Lisa S/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Popular cab-hailing service Uber seems as accident-prone as ever, attracting criticism for quadrupling its rate to a minimum of $100 during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbott-says-the-business-of-government-wont-be-disrupted-by-hostage-crisis-35491">Sydney siege</a> hostage situation. Having been criticised in several countries for its unregulated operation and irresponsible business practices, now people are questioning the firm’s ethics too.</p>
<p>This rate hike is the norm under its surge pricing model, where prices increase in line with demand. In a <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2874062/Uber-forced-dramatically-lifting-prices-middle-Sydney-hostage-crisis-encourage-drivers-come-online.html">tweet</a> posted during the siege, the company initially defended itself, saying the higher fare was necessary to encourage more drivers to pick up passengers and meet the demand.</p>
<p>The social media frenzy that followed suggests the public remains unconvinced by the firm’s explanation. Uber was accused of <a href="http://time.com/3633469/uber-surge-pricing/">price-gouging</a> and “siege pricing”. There may be reason to question Uber’s intentions if we take into consideration that this is not the first time the company has faced this sort of situation: prices also <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/opinion/taming-the-digital-wild-west.html?_r=2">doubled during Hurricane Sandy</a> in 2012. </p>
<p>After criticism of hiking prices during a natural disaster, Uber announced it would cap prices during emergencies – but that policy wasn’t applied to the recent events in Sydney. </p>
<p>Within an hour of its initial message, Uber <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/12/15/uber-backtracks-after-jacking-up-prices-during-syndey-hostage-crisis/">backed down</a>, apologised to its customers, and offered refunds, discounts and free rides. But in the long run, this kind of action after the fact isn’t going to work for Uber.</p>
<h2>From surge pricing to siege pricing</h2>
<p>Uber’s surge pricing has been a bone of contention for some time. During New Year’s Eve 2012, rates in New York City went as high as <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-surge-pricing-7-to-8-times-higher-than-usual-2013-12?IR=T">eight times the standard rate</a>. Although the rates are displayed within the app before the ride is requested, which allows commuters to cancel their taxi request if they consider the price is too high, Uber’s customers still blamed the firm for price gouging.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://support.uber.com/hc/en-us/articles/201836656-What-is-surge-pricing-and-how-does-it-work-">Uber</a> the aim of this pricing strategy is to increase the number of drivers working with them, which in turn reduces rates and ensures reliability during peak times. The surge pricing approach is a version of <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1638134">dynamic pricing</a>, a strategy which allows prices to vary depending on the time, number of customers and other circumstances. </p>
<p>While the concept is not new, it has recently re-emerged due to <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/508435">advancing technology</a> and <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=2510111">share economy</a> models such as Airbnb. The idea is that, since customers pay higher prices due to high demand for Uber’s services, more drivers join Uber – resulting in lower prices and less waiting time for customers overall. This then leads to more customers, which in turn leads to reduced waiting time between fares for drivers.</p>
<p>Dynamic pricing has been used for many years in sectors such as airlines and hotels – and its importance for increasing network effects has been <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019850108001557">acknowledged</a> in the scientific literature. Up till now, use of dynamic pricing in public transportation has been controversial, with public transport dominated by fixed-price buses, subways and trains. The business model is also a new arrival in a taxi service and so different from what customers <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296309001994">consider the norm</a>. While Uber’s high peak-time prices may be seen as price gouging leading to customers losing loyalty, some <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/346244">research</a> suggests that consumer scepticism and perceptions of unfair pricing may stem from a lack of understanding of the marketplace.</p>
<h2>Time to shape up, Uber</h2>
<p>The retrospective apologies – rather than pre-emptive plans to prevent ethical issues that could be easily avoided – is a common theme with Uber. But the strategy is not sustainable. Backlash from the Sydney siege and Sandy incidents show that Uber’s pricing strategy is seen as exploitative.</p>
<p>This can make customers <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10551-012-1340-4">feel they are being treated unfairly</a>, something that can have long-term effects on their willingness to use the service. People will gather information to reach an impression of how fairly they feel they are being treated, form a judgement and act accordingly in the future. So despite Uber arguing that extremely high prices occur only rarely, the resulting fallout on its customers and would-be customers are likely to be more substantial. </p>
<p>In an increasingly competitive market, isn’t it better if innovative technology is used to encourage responsible and fair business practices? Better that than to risk going under as regulators tighten their grip and customers turn their backs on you.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chrysostomos Apostolidis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Popular cab-hailing service Uber seems as accident-prone as ever, attracting criticism for quadrupling its rate to a minimum of $100 during the Sydney siege hostage situation. Having been criticised in…Chrysostomos Apostolidis, Graduate Tutor, Newcastle Business School, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/334042014-10-27T22:39:01Z2014-10-27T22:39:01ZWhen Tesla takes hold in Australia, your car dealer won’t like it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62842/original/ws8yyprz-1414383637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tesla's direct-to-consumer showroom model has been the subject of legal challenge in the US.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Swansen/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electric vehicle maker <a href="http://www.teslamotors.com/">Tesla</a> will soon deliver its cars to Australian roads. This promises to change both the type of cars we drive and potentially the way we buy them.</p>
<p>Tesla remains a relative oddity in the US auto market. It is on target to sell around 35,000 cars in 2014, in comparison to GM’s 10 million. But Tesla’s market capitalisation (which is a shade below US$30 billion) is around two-thirds of GM’s – so the pundits see plenty of upside for its EV technology. </p>
<p>Interestingly, it is not just Tesla’s cars and its pioneering technology that have captured the interest of many industry observers, but also its challenge to traditional industry selling practices.</p>
<h2>Tesla’s new generation cars</h2>
<p>Tesla was founded in 2003, and has been led by Elon Musk since 2004. The South-African born Musk is in the mould of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Hughes">Howard Hughes</a>. He made more than US$100 million as a major shareholder in PayPal (which eBay later acquired), parlaying this into a cornerstone investment in Tesla and another company involved in space exploration, <a href="http://www.spacex.com/">SpaceX</a>.</p>
<p>While the word “eccentric” may be too strong for Musk, he is certainly unbound by convention. For Tesla, Musk has chosen to bypass the traditional automotive retail model in the US. His distribution business model markets its cars directly to consumers. This is generally done through gleaming showrooms in upmarket retail malls – somewhat akin to Apple’s stores with their (ahem) “<a href="http://www.apple.com/au/retail/geniusbar/">Genius Bars</a>”.</p>
<p>Surprisingly for some, Tesla’s retail distribution model has been <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2014/03/18/teslas-elon-musk-learns-an-old-lesson-fighting-protectionist-dealer-laws/">subject to legal challenge</a> in the US. Legislation in many American states tightly regulates the manner in which cars are sold. This legislation was instituted to protect auto retailers from the market power of the auto makers, but has provided the basis of numerous legal appeals aimed at requiring Tesla to adopt a franchise dealer network much like its competitors. </p>
<p>In essence, a move by Tesla to sell cars directly to consumers sets a worrying precedent for many US auto retailers. They can see the possibility of other new entrant car makers (or worse, legacy car makers like GM and Ford) completely bypassing them, eroding their margins and destroying their industry’s viability. </p>
<h2>Direct to customers – a better way of selling?</h2>
<p>The rise of the internet has caused the role of retail franchisees in many industries to decline in importance. Once an important conduit for information, most customers can now access extensive comparative information online. </p>
<p>In Australia we’ve seen a number of similar approaches, including by furniture firms <a href="http://www.mattblatt.com.au/">Matt Blatt</a> and <a href="http://www.natuzzi.com.au/">Natuzzi</a>. Here, customers visit company-owned showrooms, but order and have their products delivered direct from the factory. </p>
<p>This approach has reduced inventory and wastage. It also cuts out the retail intermediary level, with its markups and margins. It’s an attractive model for companies like Tesla with strong brand awareness and loyal customers.</p>
<p>Recently, large US-based clothing retailers like Macys have slashed their shipping fees for products sent from their US-based warehouses to Australia. Firms like Kogan have established business models that link Asian factories to Australian consumers, entirely bypassing brands, wholesalers and retailers. Similarly, in grocery retailing, branded manufacturers’ margins are being targeted by retailers like Aldi and Coles who are going directly to generic producers for their own-branded products.</p>
<h2>Creative destruction of business models</h2>
<p>What we are seeing, from Tesla and elsewhere, is the terminal decline of many of the business models we’ve become accustomed to. Like any major change, this will have both positive and negative impacts – depending on where you stand.</p>
<p>For Australian car buyers, the entrance and potential success of Tesla’s retail distribution model should put downward pressure on Australian car prices. Australians pay among the highest prices in the world for new cars (after controlling for tax variations). In many Australian capitals, car dealers have been outdoing themselves to create ostentatious showrooms, passing on these costs by adding among the highest dealer margins in developed economies. The key problem is no-one asked the customer if they wanted all of the fripperies, or would prefer a lower price.</p>
<p>With a new Model S costing around A$90,000, Tesla is not operating in the discount car market, but a likely trajectory for the Australian automotive retail industry will be the growth of business model innovations that bypass expensive wholesale and retail arrangements. New (and small) entrants like Tesla may be pioneers in this respect, but it’s likely a large player will follow suit once the economics and consumer acceptance of this way of buying cars becomes established.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Rice is a member of the Australian Labor Party and the NTEU.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nigel Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Electric vehicle maker Tesla will soon deliver its cars to Australian roads. This promises to change both the type of cars we drive and potentially the way we buy them. Tesla remains a relative oddity…Nigel Martin, Lecturer, College of Business and Economics, Australian National UniversityJohn Rice, Associate Professor in Strategic Management, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/317472014-10-23T01:12:18Z2014-10-23T01:12:18ZSelf-driving cars will not help the drinking driver<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/60565/original/c7b23qvn-1412204985.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is our car culture soon to come to an end?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jes/Flickr</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is an unexpected revolution underway in road safety. True, the highly visible community-wide programs continue, but behind the scenes there are major changes underway in how <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/personal/archive/2014/02/-i-the-atlantic-cities-i-launches-the-future-of-transportation/283594/">safety will be managed within road transport systems</a>. </p>
<p>The self-driving car (or “autonomous vehicle”) has emerged with a practical suite of technologies for more <a href="http://www.carrsq.qut.edu.au/research/ITS/201401.jsp">efficient, safer, and eco-friendly road travel</a>. This emergence has been rapid: for example, the <a href="http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/roads/safety/national_road_safety_strategy/">Australian National Road Safety Strategy 2011-2020</a> did not canvas the possibility of such technologies.</p>
<h2>The technology is already here</h2>
<p>Self-driving cars are now approved for use on roads in <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/U.S.+Department+of+Transportation+Releases+Policy+on+Automated+Vehicle+Development">several US states</a> and may soon be on <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/self-driving-cars-uk-sees-driverless-vehicles-british-streets-january-2015-1643368">British roads</a>. Self-driving cars are able to <a href="http://transportation.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2013-11-19-strickland.pdf">perform driving functions automatically</a>. These vehicles use integrated systems of cameras, lidar, radar, and other sensors, as well as <a href="http://www.cohdawireless.com/technology/problem.html">vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications</a> and <a href="http://acrs.org.au/files/papers/21_Faulks-N-PR.pdf">GPS navigation</a>. These systems monitor the road environment and respond to changing traffic situations, roadway and weather conditions, and navigate to a destination without intervention from the vehicle occupant.</p>
<p>From what was once regarded as a futurist concept, autonomous vehicles are emerging as commercially viable. While <a>fully self-driving cars</a> may well be a decade or more away, the components that are necessary for the development of such vehicles are <a href="http://arsrpe.acrs.org.au/index.cfm?action=main.paper&id=732">already in the marketplace</a>. These include electronic stability control, advanced braking systems, active lane keeping, as well as a <a href="http://arsrpe.acrs.org.au/index.cfm?action=main.paper&id=1160">range of other in-vehicle safety technologies</a>. Trials are underway to better understand the integration of crash avoidance technologies with “<a href="http://safetypilot.umtri.umich.edu/">connected vehicles</a>” utilising V2V and V2I technologies.</p>
<p>So what can the automated car do to address the “<a href="http://www.police.qld.gov.au/EventsandAlerts/campaigns/fatalfive.htm">fatal five</a>” causes of road trauma: speeding, alcohol-impaired and drug-impaired driving, failure to wear a seatbelt, driving while fatigued, and driving while distracted?</p>
<p>The autonomous vehicle revolution will likely have its major effects on controlling transitory behaviours such as speeding and unsafe manoeuvres associated with driver lapses and errors, rather than impacting on driver impairment or intentional risky behaviour. A <a href="http://acrs.org.au/files/arsrpe/Paper%2060%20-%20Searson%20-%20Technology%20in%20Road%20Safety.pdf">seat belt interlock</a> will prevent vehicle occupants from travelling unrestrained. As well as addressing safety issues, aspects such as route planning to reduce or avoid congestion and <a href="http://www.carrsq.qut.edu.au/research/ITS/201401.jsp">ecodriving</a> are likely to be addressed through autonomous technologies.</p>
<h2>Drink driving</h2>
<p>We all know that drink driving is a crime: random breath testing and years of public education campaigns have taught us that. But still tens of thousands of people across Australia get in their cars and drive after drinking. That behaviour is the cause of significant injury and harm. The <a href="http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/roads/safety/national_road_safety_strategy/">Australian National Road Safety Strategy 2011-2020</a> noted:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“… while drink driving behaviour has been contained to a small proportion of the driver (and rider) population, it continues to be a major cause of serious road trauma.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Importantly, once intoxicated a person cannot decide to become un-drunk: the metabolism of alcohol takes time. Alcohol reduces inhibitory control, so even after one drink, decision-making as to the riskiness of driving after drinking may be altered in favour of driving. So decisions really need to be made whilst the blood alcohol level (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_alcohol_content">BAC</a>) is close to zero.</p>
<p>The current focus of drink driving countermeasures is to legislate for the use of <a href="http://www.nabca.org/News/Files/Ignition%20Interlocks-%20lit%20review%20Elder.pdf">alcohol ignition interlocks by convicted drink driver offenders</a>. Additional measures include promotion of the use of personal breathalysers, education regarding standard drinks and the effects of alcohol, promotion of alternative transport options after drinking (e.g., designated drivers, or use of public transport), and requirements for drink drivers to attend traffic offender intervention programs.</p>
<p>Interlocks are a countermeasure typically used after a person has been convicted of drink driving. An interlock prevents subsequent re-offending, but doesn’t stop the first instance of drink driving (which has to be detected by police).</p>
<h2>Can self- driving cars help the drink driver?</h2>
<p>Will self-driving vehicles address drink driving, and in particular, the first offence problem? On the face of it, perhaps yes, but only if the fitment of an alcohol ignition interlock is mandatory for all vehicles. </p>
<p>However, there is a major legal hurdle. Even if it is an autonomous vehicle, the alcohol-impaired person is still the driver. After all, actions need to be taken to start the vehicle, enter instructions regarding destination and route, and engage the self-driving function. These actions constitute driving, and if you’re drunk, that’s drink driving.</p>
<p>Moreover, there are serious issues concerning the possible situations where a driver in an autonomous vehicle needs to intervene due to an emergency or system malfunction. Any such intervention constitutes driving, and again, if you’re drunk, that’s drink driving.</p>
<p>It comes back to the central safety questions regarding self-driving cars. First, what are the risks when automation takes a driver’s attention away from the continuous monitoring of what is happening on the road? And second, if there is a need to intervene, how do you get a driver’s attention so that a risky situation can be avoided?</p>
<p>If you’re alcohol-impaired and the controller of a self-driving car, these questions cannot be safely addressed.</p>
<h2>Interlock devices are likely to stay</h2>
<p>The best advice regarding alcohol use is simply “do not drive” whilst under the influence, and plan ahead to avoid doing so. </p>
<p>With new and integrated technologies such as self-driving cars, in future decades it may well be that <a href="http://reviews.media-culture.org.au/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=2748">car culture</a> will fade away. A car will become a utilitarian device, simply necessary to support personal travel and the transport of goods, and no more than that.</p>
<p>But for drink driving, even in a world of autonomous cars, the solutions will remain with interlock devices to deter an alcohol-impaired person from driving, traffic enforcement to catch the drunken driver, and encouragement for the erstwhile drink driver to instead choose to become a passenger … in a cab, bus, or by travelling with a sober driver.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31747/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian J. Faulks MAP is a NRMA-ACT Road Safety Trust Research Scholar. He is affiliated with the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety (CARRS-Q) at Queensland University of Technology and is an Honorary Associate with the Department of Psychology at Macquarie University. He is a member of the International Council on Alcohol, Drugs and Traffic Safety (ICADTS) and the Australasian College of Road Safety. He has previously received funding from the Transport Accident Commission in Victoria and the NSW Centre for Road Safety to investigate and review in-vehicle safety technologies.
The assistance of Professor Andry Rakotonirainy, CARRS-Q, and Nicholas Clarke, ANCAP Australasia Ltd in the preparation of this article is gratefully acknowledged.</span></em></p>There is an unexpected revolution underway in road safety. True, the highly visible community-wide programs continue, but behind the scenes there are major changes underway in how safety will be managed…Ian J. Faulks, NRMA-ACT Road Safety Trust Research Scholar, Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety (CARRS-Q), Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.