tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/g20-hangzhou-30753/articlesG20 Hangzhou – The Conversation2016-09-09T02:15:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/648742016-09-09T02:15:21Z2016-09-09T02:15:21ZA US$24b summit about a staircase: lessons for Germany and the 2017 G20 leaders<p>Despite China’s efforts, the 2016 G20 summit will probably be remembered for poor communications and a lack of action. Of the numerous attempts to summarise the sentiments from Hangzhou, it is pretty tough to top <a href="https://twitter.com/chinadailyshow/status/773104211521265664">this beauty</a> from Twitter user China Daily Show: </p>
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<p>The sense of disappointment was not just expressed via Twitter. At her post-summit press conference, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde was asked what its highlight was. She said it was the ballet.</p>
<p>It may not have been coordinated fiscal stimulus, or the forceful, comprehensive and well-communicated actions that both <a href="https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2016/09/01/we-need-forceful-policies-to-avoid-the-low-growth-trap/">Lagarde personally</a> and <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/090116.htm">the IMF</a> argued for, but it was cool. In the words of Kevin Carmichael from the Centre for International Governance Innovation, <a href="https://www.cigionline.org/blogs/kevin-carmichaels-observer/highlight-of-hangzhou-summit-swan-lake">this reflects</a> how Hangzhou was a missed opportunity to do something meaningful for the economy in the short term.</p>
<p>My <a href="http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/09/06/Hangzhou-G20-summit-Big-on-spectacle-low-on-substance.aspx">own immediate take</a> was that the summit was a big show – but not a smooth one – and that unfortunately it will further cement the G20’s reputation as a “talk shop”. The narrative about the G20 as “good during the crisis” but less relevant over time will persist. </p>
<p>Tom Bernes, also from the Centre for International Governance Innovation, rightly questions how many leaders would have actually read the impenetrable nine-page, 48-paragraph and 7,000-word communique, let alone any of the hundred documents listed in the annexe.</p>
<p>Long-time G20 optimist Colin Bradford <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2016/09/06/2016-the-year-for-leadership-that-wasnt-for-the-china-g-20/">was bewildered</a> by the outcomes on development. This was supposed to be one of China’s key priorities, in terms of inviting developing countries to the table and making real advances on the UN Sustainable Development Goals and “inclusive” growth. But China will be remembered for the symbolism of inviting the greatest number of developing countries in the forum’s short history, rather than for substantive efforts to support the many striving to get out of poverty or achieve middle-income status.</p>
<p>Even the University of Toronto’s John Kirton, another G20 optimist, <a href="http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/analysis/160907-kirton-performance.html">cautioned that</a> leaders had stopped short of making Hangzhou a summit of strong success, let along the historic one the global community needs at this time.</p>
<p>The G20’s lack of leadership will continue to contribute to the current global economic problems of low growth, high unemployment, a corporate sector unwilling to invest, persistent and unresolved inequalities and mounting risks. We should expect further downgrades in economic forecasts.</p>
<p>In the weeks, months and years ahead, there are sure to be many more interpretations and dissections of what happened in Hangzhou. But three issues already seem to be critical. </p>
<p>First, leaders have lost track of the G20 architecture and political messaging. Second, geopolitical challenges and domestic politics are overwhelming the bigger picture. Third, government analysts are misreading the sense of urgency required to manage the current economic situation and risks. Brexit should have been a wake-up call for the G20.</p>
<h2>Lessons for Germany</h2>
<p>What does this all mean for Germany, the 2017 host? The G20 plays an important role in several key cross-border economic spaces, and positive outcomes from the G20 in recent years should be the foundation for the G20 in 2017. In particular, the financial system has proven robust during recent bouts of financial instability, while governments continue to make important progress on tax, financial regulation, anti-corruption measures and the international financial architecture.</p>
<p>The next round of IMF reform quota and governance negotiations is also due to conclude by the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in October 2017. Emerging market economies remain underrepresented at the IMF and other institutions of global economic governance, and discussions that progress a longer-term IMF reform process cannot be ignored.</p>
<p>Noe Van Hulst, ambassador to the Netherlands at the OECD, <a href="http://oecdinsights.org/2016/09/06/assess-chinas-g20-presidency/">highlights</a> a subtle shift in emphasis towards medium and long-term structural economic policies and away from the austerity doctrine. How this debate evolves in Germany, which has been among the strongest in opposing more active fiscal policy, will be worth watching.</p>
<p>Aside from economic fundamentals, one discrete, concrete policy space already stands out. Germany has nominated migration as a G20 priority. Hugh Jorgenson and I <a href="http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/g20-monitor-towards-hangzhou-and-hamburg">have argued</a> recently that the G20 needs to be very strategic if it is to add value in this complex and politically charged space.</p>
<p>But the key challenge for 2017 will be to restore a sense of efficiency and effectiveness to G20 discussions. The G20 needs to be far clearer and more robust in its communications than it was in Hangzhou. Germany will need to define its priorities and downplay less productive areas for G20 discussion, even if this is unpopular with some countries. Leaders will also need to stamp a direct footprint in Hamburg.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tristram Sainsbury is Research Fellow and Project Director, G20 Studies Centre, Lowy Institute for International Policy. Funding for the G20 Studies Centre is provided by the Australian government. He is a visiting fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, and a visiting fellow at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. </span></em></p>The G20’s lack of leadership will continue to contribute to the current global economic malaise.Tristram Sainsbury, Visiting Fellow, Kiel Institute for the World EconomyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/651472016-09-09T01:24:17Z2016-09-09T01:24:17ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Malcolm Turnbull’s first year in office<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Education) Professor Nicholas Klomp and Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics, including Sam Dastyari’s resignation from the Labor frontbench, how Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is doing at this year’s international summit season, and Turnbull’s legacy from his first year in office.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65147/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Education) Professor Nicholas Klomp and Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraNicholas Klomp, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Education, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/650062016-09-07T19:49:14Z2016-09-07T19:49:14ZHow the G20 can ensure the marvelous gains from globalization aren’t lost<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/g20-750">G20 summit of world leaders</a> just finished two days of meetings, during which they focused primarily on the many ongoing fires threatening the global economy. These include the alleged “dumping” of Chinese steel on other nations, worsening climate change, cybersecurity and the fear of competitive devaluations. </p>
<p>But perhaps the biggest threat facing the current international economic order over the long term – as well as the enormous prosperity it has created, lifting billions out of poverty – is the backlash against globalization. As it stands, however, the G20 is focusing on the firefighting and less on the long term. </p>
<p>That’s a big mistake because the global economy is more fragile than many think, and there’s a real risk that protectionism and anti-trade sentiment could derail what has been built. Instead of remaining a fire brigade or an annual talking shop, the G20 <a href="http://www.business.rutgers.edu/business-insights/business-insight-what-g20-leaders-need-do">should use its clout</a> and resources to serve as counterweight to the backlash and articulate a global vision. </p>
<p>As a professor of international business over the past three decades, I have seen how the <a href="http://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/fc5e8da1-a5bc-43b6-8ebe-ebbbfdf6e3fd/may-14-2015-republican-staff-analysis-consumer-trade-benefits.pdf">benefits of globalization</a> have lifted billions out of poverty in emerging countries and conferred on American consumers over US$2 trillion in savings since 1980 in the form of lower prices. While these gains have been somewhat offset by the loss of low-end manufacturing jobs in the U.S., the net benefit has been enormous.</p>
<h2>What is the G20</h2>
<p>The world is a very uneven and unequal place, made up of 193 nations, each with its own language, culture, laws, institutions and average income, <a href="https://knoema.com/sijweyg/gdp-per-capita-ranking-2016-data-and-charts">ranging from a paltry</a> $221 per person per year in South Sudan to $101,994 in Luxembourg. </p>
<p>While there are regional or global bodies like the United Nations and the European Union and trade agreements between countries, there is no world government or judiciary that can enforce its will on a sovereign nation. National sovereignty is still very much the norm.</p>
<p>That’s where the G20 comes in. </p>
<p>The G20 is a mixed bag of leaders representing 19 countries plus the EU, ranging from rich democracies like the U.S. and Germany to monarchies like Saudi Arabia and autocracies like Russia. Their economies cover <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/G20-countries-account-for-85-of-global-GDP-75-of-world-trade/articleshow/47670497.cms">85 percent of the world’s economic output</a>, almost two-thirds of its population and <a href="http://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-emissions">about three-quarters of its carbon footprint</a>. But it is a small enough group that these countries can have a real impact when they put their minds to something.</p>
<p>What can the G20 leaders accomplish when they get together, other than develop personal relationships? Actually, quite a lot, because the group not only represents over three-quarters of the world economy but, being small, can hope to reach consensus, compared with absurdly unwieldy bodies such as the United Nations with its 193 members. For the past century or longer, humankind has been building a global civilization and an interconnected economy. This cannot continue without closer coordination and cooperation among its leading nations, especially with emerging threats and concerns. </p>
<p>The G20 provides a forum to address them.</p>
<h2>Threats and concerns</h2>
<p>President Xi Jinping summarized many of those threats in his <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-president-xi-jinpings-opening-address-of-g20-summit-a-new-blueprint-for-global-economic-growth/5543895">47-minute inaugural G20 speech</a>.</p>
<p>Most are economic, such as sluggish global growth and falling trade. Protectionist sentiment and xenophobia are on the rise, as seen in the U.K.’s Brexit referendum and the candidacy of Donald Trump. This so-called globalization backlash <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21695855-americas-economy-benefits-hugely-trade-its-costs-have-been-amplified-policy">threatens to take us backward</a> to a more fragmented, “raise the drawbridge” world with a <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21697023-historians-find-yet-another-way-protectionism-harms-development-toll-tariffs">lower standard of living</a> for all. </p>
<p>One of the biggest fears on this score is that countries will engage in competitive devaluations of their currencies to make their exports cheaper for other nations to buy and, as a consequence, reducing imports from its trading partners. As the world’s biggest exporter, China led the way at the summit in declaring that it would manage the value of the yuan responsibly, although it did not articulate any specific guidelines or parameters.</p>
<p>Other concerns included discrimination against foreign direct investors, the growing challenge of cybersecurity, the global oil glut and climate change. On this last problem, some progress was made as Presidents Obama and Xi <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-and-china-formally-commit-to-paris-climate-accord">reaffirmed their commitment</a> to the <a href="http://time.com/4478197/g20-climate-change-obama-xi/">Paris climate agreements</a>.</p>
<p>Except for climate change, most of the other issues tackled by the G20 are short-term in nature. This is necessary, but misses a great opportunity to build an institution that addresses the long term collective destiny of humankind.</p>
<p>The G20 should build an institution devoted to long-term issues.</p>
<p>With so many pressing problems festering across the globe, it may be difficult to focus on the long term. But that is exactly what the G20 needs to do, and is the only institution uniquely positioned to do so because of the relatively small size of member states.</p>
<p>We are, arguably, building and nurturing a global civilization, yet there is no efficient and ongoing organizational “architecture” for intergovernmental coordination and consensus. The United Nations, with 193 member states, is too large, too amorphous and too unstructured to do the job effectively. A smaller group of 20 nations – which as I noted represent about half the globe’s people and most of its output – can achieve better coordination and accomplish much more. An annual meeting is insufficient.</p>
<p>The G20 should take on this important role. It could become an articulator and formulator of strategy for long-term progress in the world economy and act as a counterweight to those who feel threatened by globalization and the rapid spread of ideas and values that are challenging traditional ones. </p>
<p>The global convergence of ideas and lifestyles distresses those whose traditional identities and <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3109/09540261.2014.955084?journalCode=iirp20&">self-image are threatened</a>. <a href="http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/globalization%E2%80%99s-angst-and-%22brexit%22-vote">Britain’s exit from the EU</a>, Trump’s rise, the spread of extreme conservatism in Islam, ultraorthodoxy in Judaism and the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jora.12002/full">unnecessarily defensive attitudes</a> of the Hindu right in India are <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296315003744">all manifestations of the reaction</a> to globalization and the psychological and sometimes real threat it poses to traditionalists around the world. </p>
<p>Globalization is also seen as a threat by workers whose skills can be replicated by others in foreign countries, doing the same work for lower wages. This was one of the main concerns of Bernie Sanders supporters. </p>
<p>To an employee in Peoria, Illinois, or Canton, Ohio, laid off because his job was transferred to Vietnam, it is small comfort to be told that his pain is more than offset for the U.S. as a whole because America’s <a href="http://www.epi.org/blog/naftas-impact-workers/">participation in trade treaties</a> has created more export or international business jobs in California and Texas. Or that the typical American household benefits because it hypothetically saves at least $800 a year because of cheaper imports.</p>
<p>What the G20 could do is not only to articulate the overall benefits of globalization to their citizens but take practical steps such as creating a joint fund and colleges or vocational schools for retraining workers displaced by globalization – and encouraging its 20 member states to do the same in their own nations.</p>
<p>That’s why the G20 is the best bet to lead a coordinated defense of globalization and its benefits. </p>
<p>Over the last 15 years, <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/10/04/world-bank-forecasts-global-poverty-to-fall-below-10-for-first-time-major-hurdles-remain-in-goal-to-end-poverty-by-2030">globalization has lifted</a> about 1.25 billion people out of extreme poverty and propelled another 1 to 2 billion into the middle class. Another telling stat: In 1981, when the world population was 4.5 billion, 1.98 billion lived in abject poverty. That’s 44 percent. In 2015, even though the world population reached 7.4 billion, the abject poverty rate had plunged to 9.6 percent. Only 710 million today live in extreme poverty.</p>
<p>This is primarily because of the <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=NR50AwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=kissinger+world+order&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjP-IfG4PvOAhXM1IMKHa-oBWsQ6AEIHjAA#v=onepage&q=kissinger%20world%20order&f=false">spread</a> of foreign direct investment, trade, domestic and international deregulation and the (tentative and shaky) emergence of a <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2016.1170477">rules-based world economic order</a>.</p>
<p>It is a stunning but fragile accomplishment, unprecedented in human history – which has been full of sudden blockages and U-turns.</p>
<p>The glories of Rome, Chang-An (capital of the Han dynasty, today’s Xian) and Pataliputra (capital of the Mauryan Empire in India) <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=9RBsCQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=silk+road&hl=en&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwizoezK4fvOAhWF0YMKHQrRDqQQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&q=silk%20road&f=false">interconnected by the “Silk Road,”</a> were followed by centuries of “dark ages” in Europe and fragmentation in China and India. The forces of protectionism, recidivism, excessive nationalism and tribalism lap at the shores of our fragile global economy. Who will defend it and help us build a global civilization while minimizing the pain of those hurt by globalization? </p>
<p>Even the largest countries, acting alone, are inadequate to play such a role. The G20 nations, while accounting for more four-fifths of the global economy, are nevertheless a small enough group to achieve consensus.</p>
<p>The coming decades of the 21st century call for an even greater degree of coordination, communication and joint action in pursuing fiscal policies and monetary systems, fostering innovation, balancing growth with ecological needs, tackling global warming and continuing poverty reduction. Although I’m not a big fan of big government, the G20 could be the leading espouser of global values, norms and rules and as a proponent of international business.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65006/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Farok J. Contractor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With foes of globalization seeing their voices trumpeted by Brexit and Donald Trump’s candidacy, the G20 needs to act as a counterweight that sounds a clear vision for a connected future.Farok J. Contractor, Distinguished Professor of Management & Global Business, Rutgers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/648662016-09-06T00:25:52Z2016-09-06T00:25:52ZChina’s G20 summit was big on show, but short on substance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136650/original/image-20160905-4760-jdve9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Performers at the evening gala of the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/China Stringer Network</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s a wrap. China’s G20 leadership has come to a close in Hangzhou after G20 leaders were treated to a spectacular show on the West Lake. The final G20 communiqué confirms the necessary consensus for G20’s long-term vision and commits leaders to a blueprint for innovative growth, but falls decidedly short on substance. </p>
<h2>The show</h2>
<p>As Chinese President Xi Jinping closed the summit, state-run media outlet Peoples Daily Online announced to the twittersphere: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The 11th #G20 summit has just concluded with great success.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But was there really ever any other option? This is China after all. </p>
<p>In fact, from China’s perspective, the summit was a success well before the formalities of the event even began. </p>
<p>From the outset, China’s hosting of the G20 signalled a new phase in the nation’s global economic confidence and leadership. It offered the platform for promoting the Beijing economic model, including the <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/ChinasRoad">“One Belt, One Road”</a> initiative and Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB) on the world stage. </p>
<p>Making the most of its status as a developing nation, China brought the dual themes of development and inclusiveness more firmly into focus. By extending official consultations well beyond the circle of G20 members, and inviting a record number of guests from the developing world, China secured its claim to being the most inclusive G20 host. </p>
<p>The claim underscored China’s proposal for a G20 action plan for implementing the <a href="http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/development-agenda/">2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development</a>. US-Chinese joint <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-agree-on-implementing-paris-climate-change-pact-1472896645">ratification of the Paris agreement on climate change</a> just hours ahead of the summit delivered a striking headline and offered the promise of a new model for G20 shared leadership. </p>
<p>In China’s eyes, each of these is a marker of success. For domestic audiences, China’s success was accentuated by intense state media coverage of key summit events. Xi’s keynote speeches provided a focal point, while the high-tech lakeside gala performance of Swan Lake proved a highlight. Unsurprisingly, contesting themes found limited airtime or print space.</p>
<h2>The Hangzhou Consensus</h2>
<p>Against this background, the leaders’ summit itself proved to be little more than a side event. </p>
<p>In part this reflected a distinct absence of information and communication. Inside the media centre, blank video screens gave little away. Press briefings were limited. Patchy internet and social media connections limited the potential for commentary and analysis, especially by foreign journalists. </p>
<p>The silence on matters of G20 substance, including the <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3774780/TEXT-G20-Communique-following-Hangzhou-Summit.html">details of the final communiqué</a> – made available only after Xi’s final press briefing – was deafening. When it did arrive, the nine-page, 7,000-word communiqué offered few insights. It was arranged around five themes:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>policy co-ordination;</p></li>
<li><p>innovative economic growth;</p></li>
<li><p>financial and economic governance;</p></li>
<li><p>trade and investment; and</p></li>
<li><p>development.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The communiqué reflected the increasingly complex and technical language of G20 officials. Combined with its lack of concrete and measurable actions, the communiqué provides a clear signal that G20 leaders gained little collective ground during the summit. </p>
<p>Recognising that economic growth has been too slow for too long and for too few, the communiqué does set out an agreed longer-term vision for the G20. This so-called “Hangzhou Consensus” calls on the G20 to deliver more inclusive economic growth through co-ordinated macroeconomic policy, open trade and innovation. In short, it reaffirms the group’s core mandate: to make globalisation work for the benefit of all. </p>
<p>The consensus is followed by a raft of vague commitments for action. Ranging from innovation and the “new industrial revolution”, to issues of business financing, international tax avoidance, anti-corruption measures, open trade and implementation of the sustainable development goals, the commitments fall short of expectations. </p>
<p>Little real progress was made on key issues of climate change and energy. Other challenges that consumed the attention and energy of leaders on the sidelines, including co-ordinated responses to the Syrian crisis, refugees, terrorism and migration, remain unresolved.</p>
<h2>Australia’s interests</h2>
<p>For Australia an underwhelming G20 outcome is not a bad outcome. </p>
<p>Australia’s low-key objectives to strengthen moves against international tax avoidance, to boost confidence in global trade and open markets, and to highlight innovation as a driver of economic growth were largely met. </p>
<p>Sideline meetings with India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, and the United Kingdom’s prime minister, Theresa May, point to positive bilateral prospects. On balance, the summit was probably worthwhile.</p>
<p>It is hard not to feel underwhelmed by the 2016 G20 and the Hangzhou Consensus it has delivered. But diplomacy is at its core an incremental business. In today’s complex and complicated world the opportunity for leaders to sit together at the G20 table is not to be underestimated.</p>
<p>Ultimately, though, G20 success is a matter of perspective. For many, the Hangzhou G20 has fallen decidedly short on substance. For others, it continued the incremental business of global economic governance. For China, there is only one outcome: the G20 was a great success.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caitlin Byrne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While there was plenty of razzmatazz at the Hangzhou summit, little progress was made on key policy issues.Caitlin Byrne, Assistant Professor, International Relations, Bond UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/647852016-09-05T14:30:49Z2016-09-05T14:30:49ZFrozen like a rabbit in G20 headlights: Britain struggles to deal with Brexit<p>So “Brexit means Brexit” according to the UK’s new prime minister, who has repeated this rhetoric for the benefit of world leaders <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37270060">at the G20</a>. But Theresa May’s government seems frozen like a rabbit in headlights, desperately seeking ways out of the mess created by a result that not even campaigners to leave the EU expected. </p>
<p>The “taking back control” that Leave voters <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/681706/Boris-Johnson-vote-Brexit-take-back-control">were promised</a> is far from simple and the government appears clueless about how the details of extrication from the EU will work. Meanwhile, it is strategically focused on adjusting economic policy to mitigate risks linked to the referendum result, while cushioning its voter base from the ill effects of economic uncertainty. </p>
<p>That the UK is in uncharted waters is <a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/comments/2016C35_lpt_orz.pdf">widely</a> <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-vote-pushes-britain-into-uncharted-waters-1466797248">recognised</a>. No member state has ever left the European Union and the UK, a member for more than 40 years, has been deprived of trade negotiation skills through trade policy that has more recently been determined and negotiated <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3c76e90a-270e-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89">mostly at EU level</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/52e562fe-4cff-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc">constitutional unknowns</a> also now present lawyers and academics with a bone to chew over for months, if not years. Arguments over how and when to trigger <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-article-50-the-law-that-governs-exiting-the-eu-and-how-does-it-work-60262">Article 50</a>, the law that governs leaving the EU, are not resolved. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37219143">latest cabinet meeting on Brexit</a> suggests the government is inclined towards a speedy exit and backs the notion of prime ministerial privilege, meaning May can trigger the exit process <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/26/theresa-may-will-trigger-brexit-negotiations-without-commons-vot/">without a vote in the House of Commons</a>. Others argue a debate and vote in parliament <a href="https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-barber-tom-hickman-and-jeff-king-pulling-the-article-50-trigger-parliaments-indispensable-role/">is needed</a>. The House of Lords and the Supreme Court may settle the argument, but surely our apparently sovereign parliament must be involved if a referendum that was merely “<a href="http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2015-16/europeanunionreferendum.html">advisory</a>” is to be interpreted as a decision. </p>
<h2>Bargaining positions</h2>
<p>Government nervousness is understandable. EU treaties, which govern the legal relationship between states, <a href="https://theconversation.com/britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu-cameron-quits-heres-what-happens-next-61420">make clear</a> that there can be no formal negotiations until after a departing member state has triggered Article 50. The European Commission and several member states have reiterated this view, undermining the prospects for even informal discussions, which Downing Street <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/europe-leaders-crunch-talks-brexit-fallout">had hoped for</a>. So the government must first decide what its bargaining position will be and what relationship it wants with the EU. </p>
<p>Leave campaigners argue that the UK will forge a bespoke deal that reflects the UK’s unique position as a major global economy and a destination <a href="https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/">for 17% of EU exports</a>, as if this alone gives the UK ultimate bargaining power. But the commission and member states are strongly opposed to compromise on freedom of movement, including labour. </p>
<p>This is a <a href="http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/swiss-told-to-vote-again-on-free-movement-except-this-time-the-stakes-are-higher/"><em>sine qua non</em> for single market access</a>, as both Norway and Switzerland will attest. Both have a far higher number of EU immigrants per capita <a href="http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/immigration-and-justice/norway-and-switzerland/">than the UK</a>.</p>
<p>Access to the single market also requires full acceptance of EU law, so there is no way Britain will be able to “take back control” in the way implied by the Leave campaign, unless of course it chooses to abandon the single market, by far the largest destination for UK exports <a href="https://fullfact.org/europe/ask-full-fact-uks-trade-eu/">in both goods and services</a>. The US and Japan have warned that such a step risks serious consequences for UK trade, for their investment in Britain, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/04/g20-theresa-may-warns-of-tough-times-for-uk-economy-after-brexit">and for the world economy</a>.</p>
<p>These challenges, coupled with ministerial and civil service lack of expertise in negotiating trade agreements, make a rapid triggering of Article 50 high risk. Within two years of doing so, the EU can simply expel the UK from the union, leaving it to sort out the mess, no matter <a href="http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/the-mechanics-of-leaving-the-eu-explaining-article-50/">whether any trade agreements have been agreed</a>. </p>
<h2>Signs of strategy</h2>
<p>The uncertainty for UK businesses, both in manufacturing and services, for the higher education sector, and for prospective inward foreign investment, will surely <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/68c61094-3870-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f">wreak havoc</a> on domestic markets, on sterling, and on the cost of imported goods and services to UK consumers. </p>
<p>The government’s strategic response is to mitigate the worst economic consequences of the referendum vote. Austerity has been abandoned and <a href="https://iea.org.uk/blog/hammond-should-ignore-siren-calls-for-more-fiscal-stimulus-and-develop-a-real-strategy-for-grow">a fiscal stimulus</a> is on the cards, which should encourage a feel good factor in the economy. Indeed May’s predecessors were already moving in this direction pre-referendum, conscious that austerity <a href="http://www.theweek.co.uk/70828/has-george-osborne-abandoned-austerity">was not working</a>. </p>
<p>Egged on by the <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-how-does-article-50-work-2016-7">popular</a> <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3680058/Britain-s-booming-Manufacturing-China-eyes-trade-deal-Recovery-far-better-shape-thought-industry-clocks-fastest-growth-rate-six-years.html">press</a>, the government is talking up the economy and giving a boost to public expenditure, while the Bank of England engages in more <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/04/bank-of-england-cuts-uk-interest-rates">quantitative easing</a>, just as the Federal Reserve did in the United States in response to the 2008-09 financial crisis. </p>
<p>By forging ahead with big infrastructural projects such as <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/high-speed-two-limited">HS2</a> and <a href="https://www.networkrail.co.uk/improvements/crossrail-2/">Crossrail 2</a> railway projects, expanding <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-uk-government-approves-expansion-to-london-city-airport-2016-7?IR=T">London City Airport</a>, committing to road improvements and energy generation projects, the government can stoke domestic optimism that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/05/seven-ways-government-could-lift-the-economys-post-brexit-vote-blues">will drive up</a> personal borrowing, consumption and property prices. This may bring some better news on employment and economic growth before a general election. The prime minister could expect a credibility boost to help see off a weak opposition. </p>
<p>So the strategy is damage limitation, benign economic data, and offending as few people as possible up to the next general election. The home front could be secure, but favourable international relations with Europe and beyond are much less certain.</p>
<p>The response from the remaining 27 EU states will shape future relationships. Germany is prepared for a long game while others may be more impatient. The UK chose to abandon an EU struggling with multiple critical challenges for which its full engagement would have been welcome. It can expect few favours.</p>
<p>Other EU crises may intervene but the impasse on Brexit is likely to continue for a while yet. The three ministers tasked with negotiating the terms of Brexit, dubbed the three Brexiteers, Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Liam Fox, will struggle to deliver on promises made during a spectacularly mendacious campaign. They might reflect on <a href="http://shakespeare.mit.edu/3henryvi/3henryvi.2.2.html">Shakespeare’s</a> “didst thou never hear that things ill got had ever bad success?”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64785/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Sweeney is a member of the Liberal Democrats. </span></em></p>Britain’s prime minister keeps saying ‘Brexit means Brexit’ but exactly what this looks like is far from clear.Simon Sweeney, Senior Lecturer in International Political Economy and Business, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/648632016-09-05T00:59:12Z2016-09-05T00:59:12ZDecision from G20 leaders could prove the tipping point for free trade<p>It’s essential that the G20 leaders push for adoption of the World Trade Organization’s <a href="https://wto.org/tradefacilitation">Trade Facilitation Agreement</a> (TFA) at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/g20-750">summit meeting</a> in Hangzhou, China, in the face of growing anti-globalization forces. This agreement could be the tipping point to highlight the importance of global free trade and prevent a revival of true protectionism in the form of increased tariffs and other barriers to trade.</p>
<p>A year ago it looked like the constituency in favor of globalization was continuing to dominate the policy sphere, in spite of the failure of the Doha Round of multilateral trade talks, as new and larger free trade agreements were being negotiated. These have included the 12-country <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/tpp-7972">Trans-Pacific Partnership</a> (TPP), the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the U.S. and the EU and the 16-country Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) centered on Asia, particularly China.</p>
<p>Since then, although the TPP negotiations were successfully concluded, the prospects for the U.S. ratifying it <a href="https://theconversation.com/does-tpps-slow-death-mean-the-world-is-now-unsafe-for-trade-deals-64577">are increasingly dire</a> as both members of Congress and presidential candidates oppose it. For various reasons, some similar and some not, the prospects for concluding the TTIP are also receding. This is in part because of the absence of the U.K. from the EU negotiations due to Brexit, which itself has been yet another symptom of globalization discontent.</p>
<p>The TFA agreement is already well on its way toward acceptance by the required two-thirds of WTO members, but a strong statement in support of it by the G20 leaders would endorse the liberal trade regime that has contributed so much to prosperity over the last 70 years. </p>
<p>There is growing discontent with various aspects of globalization, including not just trade but also international investment and the reach of multinational corporations. Many perceive these forces, increasingly permitted by trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the expanded membership of the WTO, to have destroyed jobs in the developed world, thus increasing unemployment and lowering wages. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/is-trump-right-that-the-tpp-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-cede-us-sovereignty-62085">Economic analysis</a> suggests that much of this concern is misguided, but not all. The effects of NAFTA, widely condemned by some political candidates and others, were in fact on balance positive, and any disruptions due to NAFTA were small compared with other changes affecting the labor market. But greatly expanded trade with China, the host of this year’s G20 meeting, has been much larger and more disruptive than trade due to NAFTA or any other trade agreement. </p>
<p>Critics point to <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/s7lu_e.pdf">China’s accession</a> as member of the WTO in 2001 as causing this, even though that event did not in fact reduce, for example, U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports.</p>
<p>The TFA was the first successful multilateral agreement ever achieved by the WTO, with negotiations concluded at the WTO Ministerial Meeting in Bali, Indonesia, in December 2013. Against the backdrop of the more ambitious <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/dda_e.htm">Doha Round</a> of negotiations that had been ongoing since 2001 and that came to an unsuccessful conclusion two years later, the TFA demonstrated that the WTO could be a viable forum for multilateral negotiations. </p>
<p>This promise was fulfilled again at the Nairobi Ministerial in December 2015 with another agreement to abolish export subsidies for farm exports, among other commitments. This agreement, like the TFA, is of particular importance for removing obstacles to the success through trade of developing countries.</p>
<p>The TFA, as its name suggests, is about permitting trade to take place more easily, cheaply and quickly. It provides for cooperation among customs authorities to coordinate and speed up customs clearance. </p>
<p>It promises to reduce the paperwork and bureaucratic delays that hinder and sometimes completely block trade, especially in time-sensitive products. And perhaps most important, it includes commitments by wealthier countries and institutions to provide technical assistance and capacity building in this area, something that many are already now doing in response to the TFA even prior to its formal adoption.</p>
<p>Trade facilitation was one of the many objectives that were on the agenda of the Doha Round. It was arguably the least controversial of these objectives, since it was hard for anyone to argue, unless their incomes derived directly from impeding trade, that it was not both needed and beneficial to the world economy in general and to developing countries in particular. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, reaching agreement on the TFA was not a trivial accomplishment, in part because it was used by some parties as leverage for pushing other agendas. These other issues may well have been equally desirable but were more controversial, and as a result the actual adoption of the TFA was delayed almost a year until November 2014. That triggered the process in which members of the WTO need to complete their individual domestic ratification processes. Once two-thirds of the WTO membership have done that, the TFA will enter into force.</p>
<p>As of now, 92 WTO members have done so, just 18 short of the 110 needed. Most G20 members are included in that 92, but four are not. No doubt these four will complete the process without the prodding of their G20 colleagues, but an explicit push by the G20 would nonetheless give a strong signal of support for trade and the WTO to the world at large.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Deardorff does not currently get funding from any government or international organization. Over his career he has done projects for, and been paid by, many US government agencies and international organizations.
</span></em></p>The G20 leaders should throw their weight behind the WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement to help prevent a revival of protectionism.Alan Deardorff, Professor of International Economics Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/647522016-09-01T11:40:27Z2016-09-01T11:40:27ZChina hosts the G20: prepare to be underwhelmed?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136254/original/image-20160901-1027-17q2k8j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Aly Song</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>China’s leaders like to put on a good show. Whether it’s the Olympics or the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation meeting, not losing face is paramount. </p>
<p>Every country likes to put its best diplomatic foot forward on such occasions, no doubt, but for China the stakes in hosting events like the forthcoming G20 Summit are very high. This is especially the case given that expectations about actual “deliverables”, as they like to call them at such events, are uniformly low.</p>
<p>Even the G20’s most-ardent admirers, of whom there are many in Australia, would have to concede that it really hasn’t done much. Yes, there was the Gordon-Brown-led “rescue of the global economy” in 2008 following America’s subprime crisis, but since then things have been rather quiet in G20 circles. </p>
<p>In the absence of a compelling existential crisis like the misnamed global financial crisis – China wasn’t really affected, nor was much of the rest of the world outside Europe and the US – it has proved disappointingly difficult for the G20 leaders to pull in the same direction.</p>
<p>Australia’s moment in the spotlight was no different, and Joe Hockey’s big idea – economic growth – was as underwhelming as it was underachieved. Which country isn’t looking to boost economic growth? The coming meeting is equally unlikely to address anything of substance.</p>
<p>That’s not to say that there isn’t much that could – and arguably should – be done.</p>
<p>The world’s financial institutions remain largely unreformed and as capable of plunging us all into another crisis as they were in 2008. But given China’s banking sector is now an additional source of concern in this regard, the prospects for co-ordinated international action remain as remote as ever.</p>
<p>Taxation is another area that the G20 – essentially an organisation for co-ordinating collective responses to common economic problems, let’s not forget – could do useful work. But it won’t, as nations cannot agree on what should be done or who is at fault.</p>
<p>The US, for example, has been expressing outrage at the idea that the EU might want Apple to actually pay tax on some of the massive profits it makes in tax havens like Ireland. Bizarrely, the Irish government also supports this idea, and looks likely to reject €13 billion in back taxes.</p>
<p>With governments bending over backwards to accommodate tax-dodging multinationals is it surprising there is no agreement on what should be done? Is it any wonder economic inequality – and the cynicism it generates about national, nevermind international, politics – is rampant?</p>
<p>There is even less likelihood of the sort of open-ended, free-ranging debate about policy problems occurring in China than there is just about anywhere else, with the possible exception of Saudi Arabia. This is perhaps the biggest disappointment about the G20, as the frank exchange of policy ideas and possibilities was supposed to be one of its innovative hallmarks.</p>
<p>In reality, there is likely to be rather a lot of set-piece posturing, protection of vital “national interests”, and the obligatory bland statement about future co-operation. Unless Barack Obama decides to throw a few metaphorical bombs on his farewell tour of a region that has been largely disappointed by his presidency.</p>
<p>Given a number of human rights advocates and NGOs are pressing the US government to denounce China’s recent domestic crackdown on freedom of speech, ethnic minorities, academics, lawyers and other troublesome members of civil society, he just might.</p>
<p>No doubt this would “hurt the feelings of the Chinese people”, as China’s rather supine press is wont to put it. But that might not be any bad thing either. If these high-level diplomatic shindigs are actually amount to anything, then a frank and fearless exchange of views might actually be productive in the long-run. This is not a latter-day incarnation of the tribute system, after all.</p>
<p>On the contrary, many outsiders have been disappointed by China’s recent policies at both the domestic and international levels. The forthcoming meeting is a good chance to politely but unambiguously let China’s leaders know this.</p>
<p>When China first began to play a more prominent role in what passes for the institutions of global governance as recently as the 1990s there were great hopes that its policymakers would be transformed by the experience. To some extent they undoubtedly have been. But there are also clear limits to this process, too.</p>
<p>True, China is no longer a source of destabilising revolutionary ideology, but nor is it a force for regional stability either. Getting China – and every other member of the G20, for that matter – to rise above narrow nationalist perspectives and develop a common sense of purpose is the big challenge. The G20 could be part of this process, but history suggests it probably won’t be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64752/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
China’s leaders like to put on a good show. Whether it’s the Olympics or the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation meeting, not losing face is paramount. Every country likes to put its best diplomatic foot…Mark Beeson, Professor of International Politics, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/647102016-09-01T11:25:02Z2016-09-01T11:25:02ZHow China has re-engineered host city Hangzhou for the G20 summit<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136270/original/image-20160901-1015-7p5a4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>China is hosting <a href="http://www.g20.org/English/index.html">G20 summit</a> in its eastern city of Hangzhou. It’s a fitting location for the leaders of the world’s 20 leading economies (19 countries and the EU) to meet. Famed for its beauty, Hangzhou is also a key part of one of China’s most entrepreneurial areas, Zhejiang province, and a vital contributor to the country’s exports and GDP. Suffice to say, Hangzhou and Zhejiang count for a lot in China. </p>
<p>What’s more important to the Chinese government is that it shows itself in the best light at the upcoming summit. Hangzhou was an ancient capital of China and is now one of its most innovative cities, so it perfectly embodies China’s ideal combination of tradition and technology. Intent on establishing further its emergence as a global power, China wants to showcase this to the world at the G20. And, as a Hangzhou resident, I’ve witnessed some interesting changes in the city over the last couple of months.</p>
<p>Security is <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/997797.shtml">at a maximum around the city</a> – to a level never seen before. Since July, several weeks before the summit, access to the whole city has been only via a few check-points that have been set up at all entry points. Some Muslim minorities from China’s western province of Xinjiang have even been <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/31/world/asia/china-g20-summit-hangzhou.html?_r=0">banned from their workplaces</a>. </p>
<p>Many foreigners have been repeatedly questioned by the police, who have made frequent and unannounced visits to their homes to ensure they pose no risk to the success of the event. In China, there is often a bit of suspicion towards foreigners who, semi-jokingly, are sometimes <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/11/04/is-china-swarming-with-foreign-spies/">thought of as spies of Western governments</a>. More pragmatically, China wants to avoid the protests that often occur at big international summits, and which are often associated with Western students.</p>
<h2>City in shutdown</h2>
<p>Businesses have been widely affected by the summit, too. A number of commercial outlets have been closed for a month; larger shop owners and shopping malls have received some compensation, but smaller independents were “invited” to close and were given, in some cases, nominal compensation (€100 at most) as a sign of gratitude. Large factories, a major cause of pollution in the city, have been shut down for two months. </p>
<p>Everyone in the city <a href="http://www.hangzhou.gov.cn/art/2016/6/30/art_933506_1157716.html">will have a week off</a> and will likely stay at home or go away on a trip, as there is nowhere and no way to go anywhere within the city. I have some friends working for a state-owned company who have been practising singing for a planned performance in front of the G20 attendees. In other words, the whole city – of 9m people – has been reorganised in the manner of the video game SimCity. The outcome: a blue-sky, accident- and protest-free weekend in Hangzhou for Obama & Co.</p>
<p>I have heard numerous complaints by ordinary people whose daily lives have been disrupted and many businesses have lost money. But there is a positive side. The city has been entirely renovated, the construction of the city’s subway has been accelerated, motorways have been built, all the tourist areas – already very beautiful – have been given a makeover. Trees and flowers have been planted, old buildings have been restored, sewage and other hygiene systems improved. </p>
<p>Even though Hangzhou is one of the richest cities in China, there is still a large portion of the population, around 25%, that recently has arrived from rural areas and whose living conditions lag far behind the gentrified parts of the city. Yes, the focus of renovation has been in the areas where world leaders and the media are likely to go. But positive spillover effects are all across the city and even in cities nearby.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136268/original/image-20160901-1039-jmg2rw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136268/original/image-20160901-1039-jmg2rw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136268/original/image-20160901-1039-jmg2rw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136268/original/image-20160901-1039-jmg2rw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136268/original/image-20160901-1039-jmg2rw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136268/original/image-20160901-1039-jmg2rw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136268/original/image-20160901-1039-jmg2rw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hangzhou’s scenic West Lake is a tourist hotspot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/damien_thorne/27307710981/in/photolist-HB6a68-eeJF3K-hmBYr4-zNpDps-zLx4Us-9j5WLZ-eeJEaM-eeJHNR-A7t9ES-eeQmzd-zSCwLM-7q5ah6-zS9Him-6MwJR-eXqQkE-fyLVd-74pP97-6CEpAY-zPPtRE-eeQoV3-7zpduJ-9e1nxQ-6ehJBc-pSTWZ1-A9rv4Z-AiaMqQ-jBY7Vv-e2qy6d-DhqbP-AgCsjQ-AuNcML-p6wja5-zq72jg-ihPCTE-9rLeAW-cT5HKh-9GuqbZ-T8C5-eeQri1-4SNrZo-ec2Npg-A2KyCb-7oWEo-6NaaWJ-Dhqbn-AjGCw3-wnqYxU-bzStgi-A9ruUa-eeJJtH#undefined">Damien Thorne</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An international showcase</h2>
<p>On balance, Chinese citizens have accepted the restrictions. They will endure short-term difficulties in exchange for long-term gains. The <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1004028.shtml">narrative in the Chinese media</a> is that the G20 is a major event for China, a showcase that will further portray a positive image of China to the world – along the same lines as the Beijing Olympics of 2008, Shanghai Expo of 2010 and the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics of 2022. </p>
<p>For China, this is also another attempt to enhance its soft power, to be perceived as a responsible player in the international community and to take centre stage when it comes to the global economy. Indeed, China’s goals for the G20 are a greater international focus on sustainable and inclusive development for all sections of the world’s population. It has <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1003182.shtml">put Africa</a>, often neglected by the West, at the top of the agenda.</p>
<p>For the first time, perhaps, China wants the world to remember where the G20 was held.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64710/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michele Geraci does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China is eagerly anticipating the arrival of global leaders from the world’s top 20 economies.Michele Geraci, Head of China Economic Policy Programme, Assistant Professor in Finance, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/643642016-08-31T02:24:40Z2016-08-31T02:24:40ZDo moves against Hangzhou G20 ‘rumours’ help show China at its best or worst?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135884/original/image-20160830-28230-7rx77e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chinese are starting to question government control of the terms of public debate, as conveyed by this propoganda banner in Hangzhou in 2010.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/philiproeland/4770190119/in/album-72157624441284070/">Philip Roeland</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While Hangzhou has begun counting down to the arrival of G20 delegates from around the world, #g20blue – a hashtag locals use to post about the smog-free sky – is trending on social media. The beautiful sky that is exciting residents is the result of <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-06/22/content_25797965.htm">the Chinese government’s year-long efforts</a> to clean up air pollution in the vicinity of the city. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135676/original/image-20160827-17851-5tqoxd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135676/original/image-20160827-17851-5tqoxd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135676/original/image-20160827-17851-5tqoxd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135676/original/image-20160827-17851-5tqoxd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135676/original/image-20160827-17851-5tqoxd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135676/original/image-20160827-17851-5tqoxd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135676/original/image-20160827-17851-5tqoxd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135676/original/image-20160827-17851-5tqoxd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pictures on Instagram with the #g20blue hashtag.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Instagram</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>China’s “cleaning agenda” for the coming <a href="http://www.g20.org/English/">G20 summit</a> is not restricted to environmental problems, but has recently been expanded to the country’s online space. A search for “G20” on <a href="http://weiboscope.jmsc.hku.hk/">WeiboScope</a>, a censorship monitoring website, reveals a large number of posts criticising the event have been removed from Weibo, China’s Twitter-like microblogging site. </p>
<p>While some Chinese netizens who complain about the G20 have had their posts removed from the system, others may have paid a heavier price for their criticism. On July 15, blogger “Pingzi”, who was later identified as Guo Enping, was <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/996263.shtml">arrested for “spreading rumours”</a> about G20 preparations. </p>
<p>It was Guo’s viral blog post, “Hangzhou, shame on you”, that brought trouble upon this public servant. In his post, Guo criticised local authorities in Hangzhou for over-spending in preparation for the G20 summit and for causing unnecessary inconvenience to residents and businesses. </p>
<p>China has strict laws to <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/949407.shtml">regulate online rumours</a>. Under these laws, Guo was fired and detained for “groundless” claims he made in the post, which included Hangzhou’s budget for the city’s G20 preparations. It isn’t feasible to assess the validity of actual figures in this post, because there is little official information or documentation that can be used to verify or discredit Guo’s claims. </p>
<p>As one online forum user <a href="http://lt.cjdby.net/thread-2268118-1-1.html">argues</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>How do we know what Guo said in the post is wrong? Does the government dare to release its record of spending on this event?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This comment points out an important factor that leads to rumour-mongering: lack of trustworthy information. Little information is available on the local government’s budget for hosting this event. When officials <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1956377/hangzhous-g20-facelift-part-citys-long-term-planning">refuse to reveal</a> information about issues of public concern, rumour emerges to fill the gap. </p>
<p>In the absence of transparency, and to discredit undesirable comments, authorities rely on the assumption that they are the arbiters of “truth”. </p>
<h2>Hangzhou ‘trying too hard’?</h2>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135683/original/image-20160828-17887-1qjfucp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135683/original/image-20160828-17887-1qjfucp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135683/original/image-20160828-17887-1qjfucp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135683/original/image-20160828-17887-1qjfucp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135683/original/image-20160828-17887-1qjfucp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135683/original/image-20160828-17887-1qjfucp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135683/original/image-20160828-17887-1qjfucp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police patrol Hangzhou in preparation for the G20 summit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ding_jia_ming/28717449182/">HDBNorth/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most of Guo’s criticism about Hangzhou “trying too hard” to impress foreign guests is not groundless. Based on information from the Hangzhou government’s <a href="http://english.gov.cn/news/video/2016/08/07/content_281475411230703.htm">official website</a>, the city has conducted more than 700 renovation projects and declared a week-long holiday for its residents. Also, <a href="http://english.gov.cn/news/video/2016/08/07/content_281475411230703.htm">$US1.5 billion</a> has been spent on travel vouchers to encourage citizens to leave the town. </p>
<p>However, not all residents are happy about the bonus holidays. According to a recent report, local business owners <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/2009392/hangzhou-residents-prepare-holiday-exodus-courtesy-g20">complained</a>. It is also reported that more than <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-industry-pollution-idUSKCN0Z3145">250 industrial facilities</a> in the region were temporarily shut down and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/22/china-shut-churches-g20-summit-city-hangzhou-hangzhou">religious gatherings</a> may be banned in Hangzhou during the G20 week. </p>
<h2>Response to Guo’s arrest</h2>
<p>In response to official media reporting of Guo’s case on Weibo, a large number of Weibo users expressed sympathy for Guo. </p>
<p>The official report offers no systematic explanation of the “falsity” of Guo’s claims. In order to deny Guo’s criticism, officials simply use another “official” figure: 96.8% of local residents are happy about hosting the G20. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135679/original/image-20160827-17884-5mlitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135679/original/image-20160827-17884-5mlitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135679/original/image-20160827-17884-5mlitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135679/original/image-20160827-17884-5mlitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135679/original/image-20160827-17884-5mlitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135679/original/image-20160827-17884-5mlitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135679/original/image-20160827-17884-5mlitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135679/original/image-20160827-17884-5mlitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Zhenjiang Communist Youth League‘s official Weibo post about Guo’s case – the same message issued by mainstream media.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">weibo.com screen capture</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, this official message has backfired. As shown in the following screen capture, most comments challenge the official survey result. Also, as some of the comments suggest, certain posts criticising the government have already been removed from the system. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135872/original/image-20160830-28233-5ehauc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135872/original/image-20160830-28233-5ehauc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135872/original/image-20160830-28233-5ehauc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=109&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135872/original/image-20160830-28233-5ehauc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=109&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135872/original/image-20160830-28233-5ehauc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=109&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135872/original/image-20160830-28233-5ehauc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=137&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135872/original/image-20160830-28233-5ehauc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=137&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135872/original/image-20160830-28233-5ehauc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=137&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Screen capture of Weibo users’ comments on Guo’s case, with author’s translation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Weibo.com, author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Controlling rumour or suppressing free speech?</h2>
<p>In a post-Snowden era, it is no secret that governments in both democratic and authoritarian states conduct online surveillance. However, as discussed by various scholars, the sociopolitical circumstances of China determine that internet control is driven by a <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11127-007-9199-0">different motivation</a> and can have detrimental impacts on <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&lr=&id=KdiaCwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=info:GcKULJadKbMJ:scholar.google.com&ots=qvsfSXVjRf&sig=PAmWuasYPonYoWC6A2V-QjaVvV8&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">China’s civil society</a>. </p>
<p>From paid <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/blog/china%E2%80%99s-growing-army-paid-internet-commentators">pro-government commentators</a> on online forums to vigorous content-censoring strategies on social media, the government’s approach to regulating public opinion online is evolving with China’s media dynamics. </p>
<p>Recently, crackdowns on social media “rumour-spreading” have become increasingly frequent. As China has very limited alternative information channels, such anti-rumour policies on social media have raised concern among both <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324807704579082940411106988">commentators</a> and <a href="http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=10006515&fileId=S2057019815000048">scholars</a> about Chinese people’s freedom of speech.</p>
<p>China is now the world’s second-biggest economy. However, the country’s reputation for suppressing its citizens’ freedom of speech is an obstacle to becoming a real leader on the world stage. Rather than <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/06/china-human-rights-activist-convictions-us-criticism">constantly rejecting</a> the widespread condemnation of its approach, perhaps it is time to show the world a more mature China that can take and respond to criticism. </p>
<p>The upcoming G20 summit shines a spotlight on China again. With its rich history and natural beauty, there is no better way for Hangzhou to showcase “beautiful China” than by presenting a <a href="http://en.people.cn/90002/92169/92211/6274603.html">genuinely harmonious</a> relationship between the government and civil society. </p>
<p>Without this foundation, the blue sky, newly painted houses or seemingly harmonious internet may all be perceived as nothing but an unconvincing facade. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135889/original/image-20160830-28233-1y9w73o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135889/original/image-20160830-28233-1y9w73o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135889/original/image-20160830-28233-1y9w73o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=123&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135889/original/image-20160830-28233-1y9w73o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=123&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135889/original/image-20160830-28233-1y9w73o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=123&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135889/original/image-20160830-28233-1y9w73o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=155&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135889/original/image-20160830-28233-1y9w73o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=155&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135889/original/image-20160830-28233-1y9w73o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=155&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">West Lake, Hangzhou.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/norsez/8688058327/in/album-72157633354866537/">norsez Oh/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jing Zeng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hangzhou is hosting the G20 summit and China is anxious to present a positive picture of the country to the world, but the official attitude to non-compliant citizens isn’t helping.Jing Zeng, PhD Candidate, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.