tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/gas-1317/articlesGas – The Conversation2024-03-19T06:21:50Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260202024-03-19T06:21:50Z2024-03-19T06:21:50ZFinally, good news for power bills: energy regulator promises small savings for most customers on the ‘default market offer’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582732/original/file-20240319-16-nu9kfi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C8%2C5540%2C3724&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/queensland-australia-common-public-substations-1062133949">chinasong, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Electricity customers in four Australian states can breathe a sigh of relief. After two years in a row of 20% <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-electricity-prices-going-up-again-and-will-it-ever-end-201869">price increases</a>, power prices have finally stabilised. In many places they’re going down. </p>
<p>The good news is contained in two separate draft decisions today by the <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/news/articles/news-releases/default-market-offer-dmo-2024-25-draft-determination">Australian Energy Regulator</a> and Victoria’s <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/prices-tariffs-and-benchmarks/victorian-default-offer/victorian-default-offer-price-review-2024-25">Essential Services Commission</a>, on the maximum price energy retailers can charge electricity consumers under a specific plan that must be offered to all consumers.</p>
<p>The price is officially known as the “<a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/programs/price-safety-net">default market offer</a>”. It’s the price you’re charged on a “default” plan with an electricity retailer – in other words, the plan customers are on if they haven’t shopped around to find a better deal from competing retailers. The bottom line is, most of these residential electricity customers should receive price reductions of between 0.4% (A$13) and 7.1% ($211) next financial year. In most cases that’s less than the rate of inflation. </p>
<p>The relief is largely the result of a drop in <a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">wholesale prices</a> – that’s the price paid to the generators producing electricity. Unfortunately, however, at the same time transmission and distribution prices – or network costs – have gone up. So the savings won’t be as great as they might have been. </p>
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<h2>A big improvement on previous years</h2>
<p>This is the sixth year in which regulators have set default market offers for retail electricity customers. They do it where there is competition in the sector: so in southeast Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and, separately, Victoria. </p>
<p>It does not include Tasmania, the ACT, Western Australia or the Northern Territory, where the relevant regulator sets the prices and there’s no or very little competition.</p>
<p>About 5-10% of consumers across the states involved are on default plans. The rest have a contract arrangement with a retailer. But the draft decision, if enacted, still directly affects hundreds of thousands of people. And as commentators <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-19/aer-flags-price-cuts-for-some-rises-for-others/103602946">have observed</a>, it sends an important market signal about the general direction of electricity prices.</p>
<p>The Australian Energy Regulator says most residential customers on the default market offer can expect to save on their electricity bills in 2024-25. But the offers vary depending where you live. </p>
<p>Have a look at the table above to see what residential customers without “controlled load” can expect. That covers most households. (Controlled load is when you also have an off-peak tariff for hot water heating.)</p>
<p>Some customers will be paying more for electricity. In Southeast Queensland, residential customers will pay 2.7% more, which is an extra $53 on average. </p>
<p>Using an inflation forecast of 3.3%, the Australian Energy Regulator also calculates what they call the “real” year-to-year variation in prices. So even if there’s a small increase in the price for a particular area, it’s less than the rate of inflation. For that example in southeast Queensland, it equates to a decrease of 0.6% and a saving of $12 in real terms. </p>
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<p>Residential customers on the <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/prices-tariffs-and-benchmarks/victorian-default-offer">Victorian default market offer</a> can expect to save 6.4%. The retail power prices in Victoria are <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bill-relief-could-be-coming-as-wholesale-electricity-prices-fall-20240130-p5f14e">slightly better than in the other states</a> largely because there are lower wholesale power prices.</p>
<p>All in all it’s a big improvement on the price hikes of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-electricity-prices-going-up-again-and-will-it-ever-end-201869">last year</a> and the year before that. </p>
<p>The final default market offer prices will be released in May, but we can expect little change. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea-218427">The government will underwrite risky investments in renewables – here's why that's a good idea</a>
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<h2>Network prices are up</h2>
<p>Regulators set the default market offer by itemising all costs retailers are likely to incur in the course of running their business. From that, they calculate the fair price retailers should offer customers on default plans. </p>
<p>Wholesale electricity costs, incurred when retailers buy electricity from generators on the wholesale market, make up <a href="https://www.energyfactsaustralia.org.au/key-issues/energy-costs/">maybe 30–40% of your bill</a>. </p>
<p>The other major cost retailers face is for the electricity transmission and distribution network – that is, the “poles and wires”. These also comprise around 40% of your bill.</p>
<p>The network price is driven by inflation and interest rate rises, and also includes the costs of maintenance, and building new transmission infrastructure to connect renewable energy generators to the grid.</p>
<p>The easing of wholesale prices since their 2022 peak has been offset by increases in these network prices. In fact, network prices have increased by almost as much as wholesale prices have come down. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wholesale-power-prices-are-falling-fast-but-consumers-will-have-to-wait-for-relief-heres-why-222495">Wholesale power prices are falling fast – but consumers will have to wait for relief. Here's why</a>
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<h2>A difficult ask</h2>
<p>Responding to the draft decision on Tuesday, Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/albanese-government-energy-plan-stabilising-energy-prices-after-global-crisis">said</a> it showed the Albanese government was stabilising energy prices.</p>
<p>But Bowen came to office promising to <a href="https://www.chrisbowen.net/media/media-releases-and-op-eds/powering-australia-labor-s-plan-to-create-jobs-cut-power-bills-and-reduce-emissions-by-boosting-renewable-energy/">cut power bills by $275 by 2025</a>. That deadline is not very far away.</p>
<p>Bowen made that commitment in December 2021. Very soon after, <a href="https://theconversation.com/electricity-prices-are-spiking-ten-times-as-much-as-normal-here-are-some-educated-guesses-as-to-why-182849">electricity prices</a> shot through the roof. It’s becoming very difficult to see how the $275 cost reduction will be achieved by next year. </p>
<p>The bottom line is prices have stabilised after a couple of bad years and hopefully the worst is behind us. But, it would be a brave person who attempts to predict where they go from here. There are too many moving parts. Governments should stay the course on policies, and consumers, worried about electricity prices, should go online, compare offers, and to find the best possible deal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unsexy-but-vital-why-warnings-over-grid-reliability-are-really-about-building-more-transmission-lines-212603">Unsexy but vital: why warnings over grid reliability are really about building more transmission lines</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Wood may have interests in companies impacted by the energy transition through his superannuation fund.</span></em></p>In states with competition between retailers, the energy regulator is promising savings for most customers on the default plan. But it’s small change compared to price hikes. Here’s what to expect.Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2252842024-03-08T04:05:42Z2024-03-08T04:05:42ZThe Gomeroi win puts native title holders in a stronger position to fight fossil fuel projects on their land<p>In a significant <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/case.php?CaseID=898&browseChron=1">win for the Gomeroi People</a>, the Federal Court has ruled climate change impacts must be properly considered when determining whether a fossil fuel project can go ahead on native title land. </p>
<p>This is the latest in a series of disputes involving First Nations people fighting to prevent coal, oil and gas projects on their land. It’s part of the growing trend of First Nations people spearheading climate litigation. For example, cases involving <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/case.php?CaseID=976&keyWord=first%20nations">Raelene Cooper</a>, <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/case.php?CaseID=884&keyWord=first%20nations">Dennis Tipakalippa</a>, and <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/case.php?CaseID=693&keyWord=first%20nations">Pabai Pabai</a>. </p>
<p>This week’s legal decision is the first of its kind because the Court ruled climate change must be part of the public interest test before the National Native Title Tribunal can allow a project to proceed on native title land.</p>
<p>The decision puts native title holders in a stronger position when fighting to prevent future fossil fuel projects. There’s no guarantee of success, but it’s clear climate impacts can no longer be dismissed.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Gomeroi Traditional Owners speak about their fears for the Pilliga in “Walk With Us”</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-should-use-australias-environment-laws-to-protect-our-living-wonders-from-new-coal-and-gas-projects-214211">We should use Australia's environment laws to protect our 'living wonders' from new coal and gas projects</a>
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<h2>An uphill battle for Traditional Owners</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/case.php?CaseID=898&browseChron=1">win for the Gomeroi People</a> was about a dispute relating to native title approvals made by the National Native Title Tribunal in 2022. This gave the Australian oil and gas company <a href="https://www.santos.com/">Santos</a> permission to proceed with <a href="https://narrabrigasproject.com.au/about/narrabri-gas-project/">plans to extract gas</a> from forest and farmland around Narrabri, in northern New South Wales. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/projects/narrabri-gas">Up to 850 gas wells</a> would be drilled over 20 years to extract coal seam gas. The wells and infrastructure, including gas processing and water treatment facilities, would be located within <a href="https://narrabrigasproject.com.au/about/narrabri-gas-project/">1,000 hectares of the 95,000ha project area</a>. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/cth/consol_act/nta1993147/">Native Title Act</a> companies like Santos are required to negotiate with the land’s Traditional Owners for at least six months with a view to reaching an agreement. </p>
<p>But an obligation to negotiate does not mean there is an obligation to reach an agreement. Traditional Owners cannot veto the project. And even without an agreement the company can apply to the tribunal to grant native title approvals. </p>
<p>Companies know they are likely to win once they get to the tribunal. The tribunal has only ever sided with native title holders trying to prevent resource extraction project on their Country <a href="http://www.nntt.gov.au/searchRegApps/FutureActs/Pages/default.aspx">three times</a>, most recently back in 2011. In comparison, it has sided with the developer <a href="http://www.nntt.gov.au/searchRegApps/FutureActs/Pages/default.aspx">149 times</a>.</p>
<p>The tribunal must look at a range of factors when reaching its decision. This includes the public interest. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://gomeroingaarr.org/">Gomeroi People</a> argued greenhouse gas emissions from the Santos project would cause unacceptable damage to their Country, and also contribute to global climate change, and therefore the project was not in the public interest. </p>
<p>They enlisted an expert witness, the late and highly respected <a href="https://theconversation.com/weve-lost-a-giant-vale-professor-will-steffen-climate-science-pioneer-198873">climate scientist Professor Will Steffen</a>, who told the tribunal in 2021 that the project was expected to result in between 109.75 million and 120.55 million tonnes of extra carbon dioxide (or equivalent) into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>The continued expansion of the fossil fuel industry, <a href="https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/full/2024/2024fcafc0026">Steffen said</a>, would result in the Narrabri region experiencing “more extreme heat, further and more intense droughts, harsher fire danger weather, and heavier rainfall when it occurs, all of which will continue to increase in frequency and intensity”.</p>
<p>The tribunal’s then president, John Dowsett, concluded that while he accepted greenhouse gas emissions were warming the planet, it was not in his remit to consider climate change when looking at the public interest. Rather, he said, he had to consider factors such as whether the project was of “economic significance to Australia, the State and the region, as well as Aboriginal people”.</p>
<p>He ruled that it was, and also opined that Steffen should have been more deferential to the NSW Independent Planning Commission’s views that the project would have an acceptable impact on climate. Steffen was just “one scientist”, Dowsett said, and it was “disturbing” that he should dismiss the authority’s view. </p>
<p>Dowsett even referenced the classic climate fallacy about there being two sides to the argument: “there are conflicting views concerning climate change and knowledge is rapidly expanding”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/groundwater-the-natural-wonder-that-needs-protecting-from-coal-seam-gas-41978">Groundwater: the natural wonder that needs protecting from coal seam gas</a>
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<h2>A groundbreaking win</h2>
<p>The Federal Court was clearly not impressed, this week delivering the tribunal a judicial slap. The court said the definition of what was in the public interest was wide, and in this case, consideration of climate change impacts clearly fell within that definition. </p>
<p>In her <a href="https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/full/2024/2024fcafc0026">judgement</a>, Federal Court Chief Justice Debra Mortimer pointed out that Steffen was not just one scientist, but rather was on a panel of experts of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, representing the world’s leading climate scientists. </p>
<p>Gomeroi Traditional Owners <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2024-03-07/traditional-owners-appeal-santos-narrabri-gas-project-upheld/103557892">reacted to the decision</a> with <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/gomeroi-celebrate-win-against-gas-giant-santos-in-federal-court-appeal/x6r74u1gw">happiness, pride</a> and celebration. </p>
<p>Gomeroi Elder Maria (Polly) Cutmore released a statement saying: </p>
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<p>Santos now have to decide what they are going to do, we strongly encourage them to withdraw their operations from the Pilliga forest and our floodplains for good. That would respect our culture and law and Santos would be better off for it. </p>
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<p>Santos <a href="https://www.santos.com/news/federal-court-allows-appeal-against-native-title-future-act-decision-for-narrabri-gas-project/">responded to the case</a> by saying it has “at all times negotiated with the Gomeroi people in good faith”. </p>
<p>This is not the first time First Nations people have led the way in holding decision makers accountable for the climate consequences of their actions. Indeed, Australia has been a particularly active jurisdiction for climate litigation, the jurisdiction with the second-highest number of cases worldwide. The <a href="https://law.app.unimelb.edu.au/climate-change/index.php">Australian and Pacific Climate Litigation database</a> we run at the University of Melbourne records these cases. </p>
<p>We expect more of these disputes to arise in the future.</p>
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<h2>What comes next?</h2>
<p>For the Gomeroi People, the matter will likely be sent back to the tribunal with instructions to revisit the decision. This time, we hope, climate change will be forefront in the decision-making process. </p>
<p>The broader implications of this latest ruling are still unclear. It is conceivable the tribunal will reconsider the climate impacts and yet still arrive at the same conclusion. </p>
<p>Alternatively, this case could be the start of more significant engagement with climate issues in Australian courts, led by First Nations people.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebekkah Markey-Towler receives funding for a PhD at the Melbourne Law School from Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship and the British Institute of International and Comparative Law on corporate climate litigation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lily O'Neill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A first-of-its-kind legal decision puts native title holders in a stronger position when fighting fossil fuel projects. The Gomeroi people won their appeal against the Native Title Tribunal.Lily O'Neill, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneRebekkah Markey-Towler, PhD Candidate, Melbourne Law School, and Research fellow, Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199122023-12-18T19:10:06Z2023-12-18T19:10:06ZFrom laggard to leader? Why Australia must phase out fossil fuel exports, starting now<p>For years <a href="https://priceofoil.org/2021/11/12/fossil-fuelled-five-report/">large fossil fuel producers</a> — <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-know-if-a-country-is-serious-about-net-zero-look-at-its-plans-for-extracting-fossil-fuels-170508">including Australia</a> — have <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/production-gap-report-2023">expanded</a> fossil fuel production while maintaining rhetorically that the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But global emissions are overwhelmingly caused by the extraction, transport and burning of fossil fuels. Unless fossil fuels are phased out, emissions will grow and the climate crisis will worsen.</p>
<p>At COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai, which wrapped up last week, this fact finally became the centre of attention. And fossil fuel producers were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/opec-chief-urges-members-reject-any-cop28-deal-that-targets-fossil-fuels-2023-12-08/">feeling the pressure</a> — forced to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/opec-members-push-against-including-fossil-fuels-phase-out-cop28-deal-2023-12-09/">defend their expansion of fossil fuels</a> or change their tune.</p>
<p>Interestingly, Australia seems to be doing the latter, at least rhetorically. While successive governments have <a href="https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game">worked assiduously</a> to keep fossil fuel production out of the spotlight at the UN talks, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop28-dubai-0">said</a> Australia supports the global phasing out of fossil fuels in energy systems by 2050. Clearly eager to avoid being seen as the villain at the talks, Bowen named Saudi Arabia as the main blocker to an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.</p>
<p>But the text of COP decisions matters much less than the actions states and companies take. Australia — one of the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/P667-High-Carbon-from-a-Land-Down-Under-WEB_0_0.pdf">world’s largest producers and exporters</a> of fossil fuel-based carbon dioxide — is fuelling the problem, not solving it. Currently, Australian companies are moving to expand fossil fuel production: <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-major-projects-2022">more than 100 major coal, oil and gas projects</a> are in planning, at a cost of around A$200 billion. Some of these are “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2022/may/11/fossil-fuel-carbon-bombs-climate-breakdown-oil-gas">carbon bombs</a>,” likely to add huge quantities of emissions.</p>
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<h2>Why Australia faces charges of hypocrisy</h2>
<p>The Albanese government has already <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/ten-and-rising-albanese-government-new-fossil-fuel-approvals-unveiled/">approved</a> a number of new fossil fuel projects, <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/how-labor-out-loved-the-coalition-in-its-embrace-of-big-oil-and-gas/">embracing</a> the fossil fuel expansionism of its conservative predecessors. But now that Australia has declared support for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, it must curtail its own exports or face continued <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/19/missing-half-the-equation-scientists-criticise-australia-over-approach-to-fossil-fuels">charges of hypocrisy</a>.</p>
<p>How could Australia do that while managing the fallout? Interestingly, Bowen’s <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-cop28-dubai-0">rhetoric at COP</a> contained the seeds of an answer: a “phase out of fossil fuels is Australia’s economic opportunity as [a] renewable energy superpower”. In line with this sentiment, Australia should adopt the mission of leading the Asia-Pacific region to a prosperous future by simultaneously phasing out its fossil fuel exports while phasing up its clean energy exports; by becoming a <a href="https://www.bze.org.au/research/report/renewable-energy-superpower">clean energy superpower</a> instead of a dirty energy one.</p>
<p>Doing so would require a dramatic shift in Australia’s international climate posture: from a defensive, parochial, technocratic stance aimed at protecting fossil fuel expansion to proactive, outward-looking and pragmatic leadership; from merely focusing on its own territorial emissions to using all powers at its disposal in its <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/climate-policy-and-our-sphere-of-influence/">sphere of influence</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">Hard-fought COP28 agreement suggests the days of fossil fuels are numbered – but climate catastrophe is not yet averted</a>
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<h2>First a new project ban, then a net zero plan</h2>
<p>Our coal and gas exports are entirely within our sovereign control, and give us enormous leverage over our regional trading partners. No one is suggesting stopping fossil fuel exports overnight. But we could start by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/21/the-latest-ipcc-report-makes-it-clear-no-new-fossil-fuel-projects-can-be-opened-that-includes-us-australia">banning new projects</a>, and then convening our regional partners to work out a plan to phase out existing production and consumption. Australian leadership would involve supporting our neighbours —through investment, trade and aid —to ensure their populations can access energy from zero-carbon sources, just as we’re aspiring to do at home.</p>
<p>Phasing out fossil fuel exports is thus best conceptualised as part of a shift in our foreign and trade policy aimed at securing our and our region’s prosperity against the existential threat of climate change — and amid a global pivot to clean energy. Call it “<a href="https://www.bze.org.au/research/report/laggard-to-leader#:%7E:text=Laggard%20to%20Leader%20is%20a,and%20accelerated%20through%20international%20cooperation.">cooperative decarbonisation</a>”. Viewed in this light, the typical objections to a fossil fuel phase-out in Australia look pathetic.</p>
<h2>The weak objections to a phase-out</h2>
<p>The first objection claims we are not responsible for the overseas emissions produced from burning our exported coal and gas. This falsely conflates Australia’s national interest in reducing emissions globally with its international legal responsibility for <a href="https://legalresponse.org/legaladvice/reporting-requirements-under-article-13-paris-agreement/">reporting emissions</a> locally.</p>
<p>Nothing in the Paris Agreement prevents a country from taking actions that would reduce or avoid emissions in another country. It is reckless and self-defeating to concern ourselves only with emissions produced on our territory when our power to influence global emissions is so much greater. Let’s hope that Bowen’s rhetorical shift at COP28 signals acceptance of this fact.</p>
<p>The second objection is that leaving our fossil fuels in the ground will not affect global emissions, because if we don’t sell our coal and gas, someone else will. Aside from its immorality (the “drug dealer’s defence”), the objection defies Economics 101: if you reduce supply of a product, its price goes up, causing demand to contract. Other countries might supply <em>some</em> of the shortfall, but Australia is such a big producer that it is implausible to think we could exit the coal and gas markets without dramatically reducing global emissions.</p>
<p>Moreover, it’s shortsighted to think of fossil fuel export policy in isolation from the wider foreign policy choices we face. Australia’s current foreign policy is to <a href="https://www.australianforeignaffairs.com/articles/extract/2021/07/double-game">promote our coal and gas exports</a>: we literally pay public servants to help multinational companies sell more coal and gas. But if we gave our diplomats the nobler mission of leading our region’s decarbonisation, our leadership would help to make trade in fossil fuels redundant.</p>
<p>The last oft-heard objection is that phasing out fossil fuel production would cost too much. The foreign-owned corporations that produce most of our coal and gas <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-wins-plaudits-for-move-on-multinational-tax-dodgers-but-much-more-is-needed-on-fossil-front/">pay little tax</a> and <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/employment-aspects-of-the-transition-from-fossil-fuels-in-australia/">employ relatively few people</a>, while capturing <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/P1378-Fossil-fuel-subsidies-2023-Web.pdf">billions of dollars in state and federal government subsidies</a>. Scaling up as a clean energy superpower could bring more economic growth, jobs and tax revenue than would be lost from fossil fuels — especially if we <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/a-real-plan-to-tackle-energy-prices-climate-and-the-budget/">taxed the fossil fuel industry properly</a> on its way out.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hyped-and-expensive-hydrogen-has-a-place-in-australias-energy-transition-but-only-with-urgent-government-support-219004">Hyped and expensive, hydrogen has a place in Australia’s energy transition, but only with urgent government support</a>
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<h2>Phase-outs can be done: lessons from overseas</h2>
<p>Denmark, France, Ireland and Costa Rica are <a href="https://beyondoilandgasalliance.org/">among a number</a> of countries that have foregone new fossil fuel exploration and production opportunities; others are <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/just-transition-examples">working to phase out existing</a> operations. Doing so is undoubtedly challenging: firms, workers and the communities in which fossil fuel operations are located understandably tend to resist policies that would close their industry.</p>
<p>But government support can smooth the transition. The Spanish government, for instance, negotiated a “just transition agreement” with unions and businesses to phase out coal mining, support affected workers and invest in their communities. My coauthors and I <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/how-to-get-coal-country-to-vote-for-climate-policy-the-effect-of-a-just-transition-agreement-on-spanish-election-results/25FE7B96445E74387D598087649FDCC3">found</a> this strategy actually increased the government’s vote share at a subsequent election in the coal regions.</p>
<p>A phase-out of fossil fuel production is <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/employment-aspects-of-the-transition-from-fossil-fuels-in-australia/">entirely feasible</a> for a country with our resources, skills and diverse economy. The standard objections provide fossil fuel companies, and the politicians they’ve captured, with convenient excuses for cashing in while the planet — and Australia — burns. It’s time, instead, for bold actions that lead us and our region to a prosperous, fossil-free future.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-deal-confirms-what-australia-already-knows-coal-is-out-of-vogue-and-out-of-time-219906">COP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fergus Green is affiliated with the Powering Past Coal Alliance - is a coalition of national and subnational governments, businesses and organisations working to advance the transition from unabated coal power generation to clean energy. He is a member of the Alliance's Just Transition Expert Group.</span></em></p>Australia supported a phase-out of fossil fuels at the recent UN climate summit but is still expanding coal and gas production. It’s a contradiction that threatens the planet. There is a better way.Fergus Green, Lecturer in Political Theory and Public Policy, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199062023-12-15T02:16:58Z2023-12-15T02:16:58ZCOP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time<p>At the COP28 climate summit in Dubai this week, nations <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-fought-cop28-agreement-suggests-the-days-of-fossil-fuels-are-numbered-but-climate-catastrophe-is-not-yet-averted-219597">agreed</a> to “transition away” from coal, oil and gas . After 30 years of COP meetings, the world has finally committed to weaning itself from these carbon-based drivers of climate change.</p>
<p>As Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/13/the-age-of-fossil-fuels-will-end-australias-chris-bowen-hails-cop28-agreement">told the media</a>, the deal “sends a signal to the world’s markets, investors and businesses that this is the direction of travel for countries right around the world.”</p>
<p>This COP statement is the first to name and shame <em>all</em> carbon-based fuels driving the climate crisis – not just coal, which has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-flinched-on-phasing-out-all-fossil-fuels-whats-next-for-the-fight-to-keep-them-in-the-ground-194941">mentioned</a> in previous COP agreements, but also oil and gas. </p>
<p>The deal is a collective global aspiration rather than a legally binding agreement. Even so, it should put an end to the idea that burning carbon – both in Australia and elsewhere – can continue on a significant scale beyond 2050. </p>
<h2>Renewables on the rise</h2>
<p>The statement on carbon-based fuels is significant, but largely symbolic. In Australia, coal as a fuel has long been on the way out. Improved domestic energy efficiency has <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics/energy-consumption#:%7E:text=Australia%27s%20energy%20consumption%20fell%200.1,2021%2D22%20was%207%20PJ.">reduced energy consumption</a>, even as the economy has grown. Most of this has come at the expense of coal – a trend likely to continue as electricity generation moves further towards renewables. </p>
<p>As the below table shows, starting from a base of almost zero, solar and wind energy generation has risen at startling annual rates over the last decade: 30% for solar and 15% for wind. Although shares of total energy consumption are still fairly small, these growth rates imply solar and wind will generate more energy than coal by the end of the decade.</p>
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<p>Australia’s consumption of oil, mostly in the form of imported petrol and diesel fuel, has remained largely steady over the past decade. Successive federal governments have dithered on the transition to electric vehicles. But if Australia is to get anywhere near the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, it must now tackle the transport sector <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/transport#:%7E:text=Driving%20The%20Nation-,National%20collaboration%20on%20EVs,10%25%20of%20Australia%27s%20total%20emissions.">which in 2022</a> produced 19% of Australia’s emissions – more than half from passenger and light commercial vehicles.</p>
<p>Given the absence of a domestic motor vehicle industry in Australia, the current government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-charts-in-australias-2023-climate-statement-show-we-are-way-off-track-for-net-zero-by-2050-218930">inaction on electric vehicles</a> is surprising. It appears driven in part by a fear of populist campaigns by the Coalition and others about the effects on motorists. Who could forget claims in 2019 by then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison that electric vehicles would “end the weekend […] It’s not going to tow your trailer. It’s not going to tow your boat. It’s not going to get you out to your favourite camping spot” – claims since proven to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600">incorrect</a>.</p>
<p>Also in play is the political lobbying power of the retail motor industry, backed by foreign car manufacturers keen to maintain a market for their remaining supply of petrol-driven vehicles.</p>
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<h2>The myth of carbon capture and storage</h2>
<p>The final text also called for the acceleration of “zero and low emission technologies”. Controversially, this includes removal technologies such as carbon capture and storage, which involves trapping, transporting and storing greenhouse gas emissions from facilities such as coal-fired power stations and gas plants.</p>
<p>The inclusion of this technology was criticised by many observers as a loophole which would allow polluting, inefficient industries to continue. But it is better understood as a symbolic sop to the coal, oil and gas industries, which have long pinned their hopes of staying in business on the idea of burying the carbon they emit. </p>
<p>In reality, carbon capture and storage is a <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/carbon-capture-and-storage-fuels-more-net-zero-fraud/">proven failure</a>. The Gorgon gas project on the Barrow Island nature reserve, off Western Australia’s Pilbara coast, has stored <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/world-s-biggest-carbon-storage-project-off-wa-coast-burying-only-a-third-of-what-it-promised-to-20231113-p5ejm4.html">barely a third</a> of the targeted amount of carbon, forcing the proponents to <a href="https://australia.chevron.com/news/2022/acquisition-and-surrender-of-offsets-complete#:%7E:text=PERTH%2C%20Western%20Australia%2C%2015%20July,facility%20over%20the%20five%2Dyear">buy carbon offsets</a> instead (themselves a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/24/carbon-offsets-are-a-licence-to-pollute">dubious option</a>). Similarly, the only operating project capturing emissions from a coal-fired power plant, at <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/carbon-capture-remains-risky-investment-achieving-decarbonisation">Boundary Dam in Canada</a>, has under-performed on carbon capture capacity by a huge margin.</p>
<p>So while carbon-capture is theoretically available as an option for new projects, in most cases it will prove either technically impossible or <a href="https://www.atse.org.au/news-and-events/article/does-ccs-make-economic-sense/">economically infeasible</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600">Electric utes can now power the weekend – and the work week</a>
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<h2>Australia faces a choice on energy exports</h2>
<p>The COP28 statement’s call for an “urgent and equitable transition to renewable energy” presents opportunities for Australia. As Bowen <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/the-age-of-fossil-fuels-will-end-bowen-says-after-cop28-win-20231213-p5ercz">acknowledged</a>:</p>
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<p>Australia wants to be a renewable energy powerhouse, we want to create the energy for ourselves, and for our region and for the world […] The COP decision today gives us a very good ecosystem in which to develop that plan.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But of course, “that plan” is totally inconsistent with the plans of the coal and gas industries, which are announcing <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-116-new-coal-oil-and-gas-projects-equate-to-215-new-coal-power-stations-202135">new projects</a> intended to operate well into the second half of this century. By <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/case-for-gas-as-transition-fuel-falling-apart-on-both-economic-and-environmental-costs/">backing</a> these projects, the federal government is essentially betting that the aspirations of the COP28 statement will turn out to be just wishful thinking, and that Australia can profit from a world of catastrophic global heating.</p>
<p>Australia must now decide what kind of energy superpower it wants to be: the home of a sustainable future, or the last refuge of coal and gas extraction.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219906/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p>The deal is a global aspiration, not a legally binding agreement. But it should end the idea that burning carbon – in Australia and elsewhere – can continue on a significant scale beyond 2050.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060152023-11-06T07:55:06Z2023-11-06T07:55:06ZEnergy prices: shipping hold-ups made the 2022 spike worse – and could do so again<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557443/original/file-20231103-17-p6vlng.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Ukraine war has made the EU much more dependent on liquefied gas. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gas-carrier-port-ship-harbor-dawn-1024510150">Wojcieck Wrzesien</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Germany and some other EU countries are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-builds-up-lng-import-terminals-2023-10-18/">hastily setting up</a> new floating gas terminals at their ports to help cope with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-winter-energy-crunch-in-europe-looks-a-distinct-possibility-212269">severe reduction</a> in natural gas exports from Russian pipelines since the Ukraine war started nearly two years ago. To make up the shortfall, they have been buying more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from other countries, including the <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/31017/eu-lng-and-pipeline-natural-gas-imports-by-country/">US and Qatar</a>.</p>
<p>Adding extra floating terminals is the fastest way to increase capacity. They are required to convert the liquid gas into gaseous form so that it can be transmitted through the pipeline network to wherever it’s required. The <a href="https://giignl.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GIIGNL-2023-Annual-Report-July20.pdf">EU’s import capacity</a> for LNG has already been increased by nearly a quarter to just over 200 billion cubic metres per annum (bcma) since the start of 2022, and is due to go up by about another 20bcma over the winter, most of it added in Germany. </p>
<p>The aim is to avoid a repeat of last winter, when a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/how-to-avoid-gas-shortages-in-the-european-union-in-2023/baseline-european-union-gas-demand-and-supply-in-2023">60% surge</a> in EU demand for LNG led to a spike in energy prices that peaked at <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas#:%7E:text=TTF%20Gas%20decreased%2029.94%20EUR,345%20in%20March%20of%202022.">over ten times</a> their usual levels. This was accompanied by port congestion problems from the increased number of LNG carriers, some of which were delayed in unloading as a result. </p>
<h2>Quantifying the cost</h2>
<p>In our <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4464776">recent research</a>, we’ve been looking at how much these congestion problems affected energy prices. It’s well known that port delays of any kind are expensive: between May and November 2021 in the US alone, a combination of port congestion and a shortage of shipping containers reduced exports to the tune of <a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeecolet/v_3a213_3ay_3a2022_3ai_3ac_3as0165176522000659.htm">US$15.7 billion (£13 billion)</a> (it’s not known how much was caused by one or the other). When this happens, it forces companies to charge more on their products to protect their earnings, meaning prices go up. </p>
<p>With LNG carriers, there’s an additional problem. They can’t just sit in a port waiting to deposit their cargoes because the instability of LNG makes it dangerous for them to be stationary for more than <a href="https://unece.org/DAM/trans/doc/2011/wp29grpe/LNG_TF-02-06e.pdf">five days</a>. At that point, they have to either start releasing gas into the atmosphere or burn fuel by moving around in the sea while they wait for a berth, both of which cost more money. </p>
<p>Our port congestion index below gives an indication of how LNG carriers were affected in the EU in 2022. Our data looks at the past five years, and you can actually see that there was a larger spike in general port congestion in 2020 caused by anti-COVID measures. It then eased after the first pandemic wave, only to increase again at the beginning of 2022 when the EU started increasing LNG imports.</p>
<p><strong>EU port congestion index for LNG vessels</strong></p>
<p>To calculate how the 2022 congestion affected energy prices, we used mathematical modelling known as econometrics. It revealed that 10% of the energy inflation in the EU was the result of port congestion. In other words, with the <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas">average cost of gas</a> in Europe rising from circa €20 (£17.50) per megawatt hour (MWhr) before the pandemic to more like €100/MWhr in 2022, it means that about €8 can be attributed to congestion. </p>
<p><strong>EU gas prices (€/MWhr)</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing the EU gas price" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556313/original/file-20231027-21-ob0x7g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Based on the benchmark Dutch TTF futures price.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas">Trading Economics</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This demonstrates how being at the mercy of the world LNG market was made worse by congestion caused by the lack of import capacity. Overall, we found that a 10% increase in the time that LNG vessels delay to berth at EU ports increased gas prices by 1%.</p>
<p>Notably, one consequence was that the EU had to import a lot more gas from the UK, which has the second highest LNG capacity in the region besides Spain. The UK <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1182228/DUKES_2023_Chapter_4_Gas.pdf">near-doubled</a> its imports of the fuel to pipe it to the European mainland. </p>
<h2>The coming months</h2>
<p>This winter, EU demand for LNG is expected to be <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/key-takeaways-europe-gas-power-markets-short-term-outlook-2023/#form">slightly higher</a> than last year, even assuming <a href="https://bnn.network/breaking-news/climate-environment/el-ninos-impact-winter-2023-2024-predicted-to-witness-lower-snowfall-in-europe/">that projections</a> of another mild winter prove accurate. On the plus side, EU gas storage capacity is <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/100323-eu-gas-storage-fullness-surpasses-202223-winter-peak-gie#:%7E:text=The%20EU's%20gas%20storage%20facilities,the%20latest%20data%20published%20Oct.">virtually full</a> and the extra LNG import capacity will help significantly. </p>
<p>If the weather is much worse than anticipated, however, gas demand will be much higher, both in Europe and in northern Asia, which is the other main region that depends on large volumes of LNG. If so, port delays could again become an issue and potentially make a similar contribution to price spikes as we have seen in the past. </p>
<p>The EU’s current aim is to double its import capacity to 400bcma by 2030. There are <a href="https://www.lngindustry.com/special-reports/01112023/ieefa-europes-lng-capacity-buildout-outpaces-demand/#:%7E:text=LNG%20import%20capacity%20is%20set,with%20gas%20demand%20reduction%20policies.">some observers saying</a> this level of capacity is excessive when the goal is to reduce dependency on fossil fuels, but it certainly shows how far short current capacity is from where the EU wants it to be. No wonder when it makes such a difference to energy prices. </p>
<p>It sheds a light on the scale of the urgency around increasing capacity, as well as the need to build out alternative energy sources as far as possible to avoid similar problems in future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206015/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>LNG carriers were delayed in unloading in EU ports because there weren’t enough terminals to process the fuel.Stavros Karamperidis, Lecturer in Maritime Economics, University of PlymouthKonstantinos D. Melas, Postdoctoral Researcher in Supply Chain Finance, University of Western MacedoniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2163732023-10-29T19:12:04Z2023-10-29T19:12:04ZAustralia’s new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions<p>Australia has three ways it can help reduce world greenhouse emissions, the only reduction that matters in tackling climate change.</p>
<p>First, we can remove emissions from our economy. This will reduce global emissions <a href="https://www.aofm.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-11-28/Aust%20Govt%20CC%20Actions%20Update%20November%202022_1.pdf">by just 1.3%</a>, but it must be done so we share the transition burden with other countries. </p>
<p>Second, we can stop approving new coal and gas projects, which will raise the cost of these products and so reduce world demand for them to some extent. This would have an important demonstration effect, although the reduction in world emissions may be less than some advocates think.</p>
<p>Third, we can quickly pursue industries in which Australia has a clear comparative advantage in a net-zero world. Of any country, Australia is probably best placed to produce <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6BLjjTW694&ab_channel=ABCNews%28Australia%29">green iron</a> and other minerals that require energy-intensive processing, as well as <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/september/sustainable-aviation-fuel">green transport fuels</a>, <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/7985444/good-to-go-green-with-green-urea/">urea</a> for fertiliser, and <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/australia-s-green-energy-future-can-maximise-global-decarbonisation-20230906-p5e2c1">polysilicon</a> for solar panels.</p>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-973" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/973/534c98def812dd41ac56cc750916e2922539729b/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Australia’s huge green industry opportunity</h2>
<p>Of these three ways, by far the least public discussion is on the third: producing energy-intensive green exports. Yet these industries could reduce world emissions by as much as 6–9%, easily Australia’s largest contribution to the global effort. And it would transform our economy, turning Australia into a green energy superpower.</p>
<p>Australia produces <a href="https://www.mining-technology.com/data-insights/iron-ore-in-australia-2/#:%7E:text=Australia%20accounts%20for%2038%25%20of,share%20being%20exported%20to%20China.">almost 40%</a> of the world’s iron ore. Turning iron ore into metallic iron accounts <a href="https://research.csiro.au/tnz/low-emissions-steel/#:%7E:text=Australia%20produces%20almost%20half%20of,global%20green%20house%20gas%20emissions.">for 7% of global emissions</a>. Our iron ore is largely processed overseas, often using Australian coal, which can be exported cheaply. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-beat-rollout-rage-the-environment-versus-climate-battle-dividing-regional-australia-213863">How to beat 'rollout rage': the environment-versus-climate battle dividing regional Australia</a>
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<p>In the net-zero world, iron ore can be reduced to iron metal <a href="https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/News/Hydrogen-sparks-change-for-the-future-of-green-steel-production.htm#:%7E:text=The%20magic%20of%20hydrogen%20is,natural%20gas%20instead%20of%20hydrogen.">using green hydrogen</a> rather than coal. Considerable renewable energy will be needed, yet renewable energy and hydrogen are very expensive to export. </p>
<p>Therefore, rather than export ore, renewable energy and hydrogen, it makes economic sense to process our iron in Australia, before shipping it overseas. Doing so would reduce global emissions by around 3%.</p>
<p>Likewise, turning Australia’s bauxite <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/green-steel-and-aluminium-production-within-reach/">into green aluminium</a> using low-cost renewable energy could reduce world emissions by around 1%. Making polysilicon is also energy-intensive, so again Australia is a natural home for its production. And Australian low-cost green hydrogen plus sustainable carbon from <a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/bioenergy/">biomass</a> are needed for making green urea and transport fuels. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-juukan-gorge-how-first-nations-people-are-taking-charge-of-clean-energy-projects-on-their-land-213864">Beyond Juukan Gorge: how First Nations people are taking charge of clean energy projects on their land</a>
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<h2>From gas and coal power to clean power</h2>
<p>Australia is the <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/new-analysis-australia-ranks-third-for-fossil-fuel-export/">world’s largest exporter of gas and coal taken together</a>. Some analysts focus on the costs of losing this large comparative advantage as the world responds to climate change. They overlook two key points. </p>
<p>First, Australia has the world’s best combination of <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/wind-energy">wind</a> and <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/resources/other-renewable-energy-resources/solar-energy">solar</a> energy resources, and enormous sources of biomass for a zero-emissions chemical industry. </p>
<p>Second, we have abundant and much-needed minerals that require huge amounts of energy to process. The high cost of <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/can-we-export-renewable-energy/">exporting renewable energy</a> and <a href="https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/opinion-does-it-make-financial-sense-to-export-green-hydrogen-derived-ammonia-around-the-world-/2-1-1325336">hydrogen</a> makes it economically logical for these industries to be located near the energy source. </p>
<p>In other words, more of Australia’s minerals and other energy-intensive products should now be processed in Australia. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>If Australia seizes this opportunity it can repeat the experience of the <a href="https://aus.thechinastory.org/archive/economics-and-the-china-resources-boom/#:%7E:text=For%20China%2C%20resources%20remain%20the,of%20trade%20surplus%20with%20China.">China resources boom</a> of around ten years ago, but this time the opportunity can be sustained, not boom and bust, with benefits spread over more regions and people.</p>
<p>Some of the actions governments must take to achieve the 6–9% reduction in world emissions will also help to decarbonise our economy. We must develop the skills we need, support well-staffed government bodies to provide efficient approvals for new mines and processes, build infrastructure that will often be far from the east coast electricity grid, and maintain open trade for imports and exports. </p>
<h2>What government must do</h2>
<p>But we also need policy changes to give private investors assistance to bridge the current <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/why-it-will-cost-320b-to-ditch-coal-in-three-maps-and-a-chart-20220608-p5as3t">cost gap between green and black products</a> (meaning ones made by clean or by fossil fuel energy) in these new industries, and to help early movers. </p>
<p>If we help companies to produce these products at scale, costs will fall as processes are streamlined and technology improves. Capital grants for early movers are an option, but more work is needed to determine the best forms of support.</p>
<p>Let’s make a distinction between energy-intensive green products and mining. While Australia should mine the energy transition minerals the world needs – such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths – mining does not need the financial incentives just cited. Critical minerals are used in black as well as green products and Australia already has significant expertise in mining. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
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<p>Some will argue Australia can wait until other countries have proven the technology and scaled up production so that the green-black price gap disappears; these new green industries will end up in Australia anyway because of our strong comparative advantage. This complacent argument has many flaws.</p>
<p>Australia is making decisions on its climate and economic direction now. If we do not focus on industries in which we have sustainable advantages we will end up damaging our prosperity. For example, we might pursue labour intensive industries that will be low margin and pay low wages, when other countries are better locations for them.</p>
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<p>Second, while technology breakthroughs will be shared internationally, innovation is often about streamlining processes to suit local conditions. If we learn these lessons in Australia, we can achieve lowest-cost world production. If not, these industries could permanently locate elsewhere.</p>
<h2>The need for speed</h2>
<p>Most importantly, Australia needs to move now to put in place the incentives set out above. No other nation that has the capacity to make these energy intensive green products at scale seems focused on the task. If Australia does not do it, the reduction in world emissions could be seriously delayed. </p>
<p>Of all countries, Australia is best placed to show the world what is possible. Companies and countries using conventionally made steel today can say they want to use green iron but none is available. Let’s deny them that excuse.</p>
<p>Once the large investment, productivity and prosperity benefits of this agenda are properly explained, all Australians will applaud it. </p>
<p>What’s more, the level of renewable energy required by the transition will see our power prices fall to some of the lowest in the world.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-economists-call-for-a-carbon-price-a-tax-on-coal-exports-and-green-tariffs-to-get-australia-on-the-path-to-net-zero-216428">Worried economists call for a carbon price, a tax on coal exports, and 'green tariffs' to get Australia on the path to net zero</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rod Sims is also Chair of the Superpower Institute.</span></em></p>Australia has a massive opportunity to reduce global emissions by as much as 9%, all while renewing its heavy industries and economy. But to seize the opportunity, government needs to move fast.Rod Sims, Professor in the practice of public policy and antitrust, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2143202023-10-12T12:29:48Z2023-10-12T12:29:48ZAstronomers have learned lots about the universe − but how do they study astronomical objects too distant to visit?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551236/original/file-20230929-19-43qoyt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C8%2C1905%2C663&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Telescopes at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory near La Serena, Chile.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://noirlab.edu/public/images/iotw2107a/">Guillaume Doyen/CTIO/NOIRLab/NSF/AURA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>NASA’s <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/mission/osiris-rex">OSIRIS-REx spacecraft</a> flew by Earth on Sept. 24, 2023, dropping off its sample of dust and pebbles <a href="https://theconversation.com/7-years-billions-of-kilometres-a-handful-of-dust-nasa-just-brought-back-the-largest-ever-asteroid-sample-214151">gathered from the surface</a> of near-Earth asteroid Bennu.</p>
<p>Analysis of this sample will help scientists understand how the solar system formed and from what sorts of materials. Scientists will begin their analysis in the <a href="https://ares.jsc.nasa.gov">same facility</a> that analyzed rocks and dust from the Apollo lunar landings.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=BUAUD4YAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">As an astronomer</a> studying how planets form around distant stars, I felt excited watching the broadcast of that Bennu sample descending to the Utah desert – and a little envious. Those of us who study distant young solar systems can’t send robotic spacecraft to get a closer look at them, let alone grab a sample for laboratory analysis. Instead, we rely on remote observations. </p>
<p>But what astronomers can measure using telescopes is not what we really want to know – instead, we calculate the properties we’re interested in studying by observing and interpreting apparent properties from afar.</p>
<h2>Astronomers’ tools</h2>
<p>Asteroids are like fossils – they’re composed of rocky material from the formation and early evolution of a solar system and they are preserved nearly unchanged. That’s how the pristine Bennu samples will help astronomers learn about our solar system’s formation.</p>
<p>Over the past several decades, astronomers have learned that <a href="https://www.planetary.org/articles/0416-the-birth-of-the-wanderers">disks of gas and dust</a> called protoplanetary disks orbit young stars. Observing these disks – located many light years outside our solar system – can help astronomers understand the early planet formation process, but they’re too distant to send a sample-return mission like OSIRIS-REx to directly measure what the <a href="https://public.nrao.edu/blogs/what-is-a-debris-disk/">dust and asteroids in these systems</a> are made of.</p>
<p>All that astronomers like me can do is observe those distant regions of the universe remotely, using telescopes here on Earth or in orbit near Earth. But even with limited tools and techniques, we’ve still managed to learn quite a bit about them.</p>
<h2>Distance and luminosity</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.eso.org/public/news/eso1611/">closest protoplanetary systems</a> are a few hundred light years from the Sun, but we can’t directly measure distances that large. Instead, we have to determine distance indirectly using precise <a href="https://www.space.com/30417-parallax.html">measurements of parallax</a> – small changes in the apparent position of the star caused by our changing perspective as Earth orbits the Sun.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Video illustration of determining distances to stars using measurements of parallax. Las Cumbres Observatory.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Once we know their distances from Earth, we can determine another essential physical property of protoplanetary disks: their luminosities and the luminosities of their stars.</p>
<p><a href="https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/stellar-luminosity-the-true-brightness-of-stars/">Luminosity</a> is an object’s power output measured in watts. The luminosity of a star like our Sun is in <a href="https://www.space.com/57-stars-formation-classification-and-constellations.html">the hundreds of trillions of trillions of watts</a>. Just as sunlight influences weather and the chemistry of planetary atmospheres in our solar system, the luminosity of a young star directly affects the material in its protoplanetary disk. Luminosity can alter the size and composition of dust particles that will later form asteroids and planetary cores.</p>
<p>But brightness does not directly indicate luminosity. The measured brightness of a star or any luminous object decreases with the square of its distance from us. We measure the apparent brightness of a star, or how bright it looks in a digital image, and then <a href="https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/stellar-luminosity-the-true-brightness-of-stars/">calculate its luminosity</a> from this observed brightness and the star’s distance.</p>
<h2>Color and temperature</h2>
<p>Luminosity also depends on temperature – warmer objects are usually more luminous – but we can’t directly measure the temperatures of distant systems. Astronomers <a href="https://www.atnf.csiro.au/outreach/education/senior/astrophysics/photometry_colour.html">determine temperature</a> using precise measurements of the apparent color of a star and of the gas and dust orbiting in its planet-forming disk. </p>
<p>The color images of celestial objects that you see from observatories like the Hubble or James Webb space telescopes are <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-the-james-webb-space-telescopes-pictures-real/">composites of multiple images</a> taken through a series of colored filters.</p>
<p>For astronomers, colors are numbers describing the brightness of an object at a particular wavelength compared with its brightness at another wavelength. Warmer objects emit more blue light relative to red light, so their color looks more blue and the corresponding number is smaller. Astronomers measure color in even more detail by passing starlight through a small prism installed in the telescope’s camera. This prism disperses the light into a spectrum.</p>
<p>The spectrum of light from a star and its surrounding material isn’t a smooth rainbow of color. Sharp bright and dark features in the spectra indicate the presence and relative abundances of atoms, molecules and even minerals. These chemical elements emit or absorb light in unique and recognizable <a href="https://www.astronomy.com/science/how-do-scientists-determine-the-chemical-compositions-of-the-planets-and-stars/">combinations of colors</a>.</p>
<h2>Measurement and interpretation</h2>
<p>Can you see a theme emerging? Astronomers can measure only a handful of apparent properties: brightness, color, position in the sky, shape, angular size and how each of these changes with time. These are the same properties each of us measures with our senses to navigate our surroundings in everyday life. They’re nothing exotic or special.</p>
<p>And yet everything astronomers know about distant solar systems and their formation we have derived from measurements of these familiar and unremarkable apparent properties. The rich and detailed descriptions that we’ve come to expect in astronomy and astrophysics come from applying our understanding of chemistry and physics to these measurements.</p>
<p>The arrival of the Bennu sample is exciting because it is “real.” In the coming months and years, scientists will examine this dust to inform our studies not only of asteroids and interplanetary dust, but also of interstellar dust in solar systems farther afield. I am eager to see what these new details will teach us about cosmic dust, some of the primary building blocks of planets everywhere.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214320/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Keller has received funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. </span></em></p>Controlled experiments are impossible in astronomy, as are direct measurements of physical properties of objects outside our solar system. So how do astronomers know so much about them?Luke Keller, Professor of Physics and Astronomy, Ithaca CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144632023-09-28T05:38:38Z2023-09-28T05:38:38ZThe green energy surge still isn’t enough for 1.5 degrees. We’ll have to overshoot, adapt and soak up carbon dioxide<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550517/original/file-20230927-29-1bck3x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5519%2C3660&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It was a rare bit of good news on climate. The International Energy Agency this week released its latest <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach">net zero roadmap</a>, showing it was still just possible to hold global heating to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>In the last two years, we’ve seen <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-power-on-course-to-shatter-more-records-as-countries-around-the-world-speed-up-deployment">major global investment</a> in clean energy, spurred on by energy independence concerns raised by the war in Ukraine, as well as intensifying extreme weather. </p>
<p>Even so, it’s unlikely to actually keep us under 1.5°C, the globally agreed target to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. </p>
<p>Why? Because emissions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">still rising</a> – even as many countries make their energy grids greener. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1706576930235973807"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why is it so hard?</h2>
<p>In part, because we’ve left our run very late. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its first assessment in 1990. Since then, the world has emitted one trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide, which is two-thirds of the carbon budget. That is, the amount of permissible emissions that would feasibly allow us to limit global warming to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial temperature.</p>
<p>At the beginning of this year, the world had <a href="https://nesp2climate.com.au/unmasking-our-carbon-and-climate-futures/">just 380 billion tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide left in the carbon budget. Global emissions have been about 40 billion tonnes a year over the past few years with no sign of decline. At that rate, we’ll hit 1.5°C in about nine years, and 2°C in 30 years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-are-cheaper-than-ever-yet-fossil-fuel-use-is-still-growing-heres-why-213428">Renewables are cheaper than ever yet fossil fuel use is still growing – here’s why</a>
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<p>We are not moving fast enough, on enough fronts, to wean ourselves off fossil fuels.</p>
<p>For instance, even though the use of electric vehicles is growing fast, it’s off a low base. The world still has <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/used-car-exports-threaten-climate-goals/">an estimated</a> 1.4 billion internal combustion engine cars, which run on petrol, diesel or gas. </p>
<p>Emissions from all forms of transport are increasing. Fossil gas use is surging. Coal use was thought to have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-21/international-energy-agency-says-coal-demand-peaked-in-2013/13001140">peaked in 2013</a>. But it’s back at even higher levels over the past two years, as nations scramble to shore up energy supplies due to the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>Clean alternatives haven’t yet replaced fossil fuels at sufficient scale. It doesn’t matter how many solar panels are installed unless they also substitute the power that fossil fuels provide. And on a global scale, that’s not happening quickly enough to prevent us hitting 1.5°C. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="solar farm Yunnan province china" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550518/original/file-20230927-23-8ya7k9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">China’s renewable build is accelerating.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>But the good news is we’re finally seeing something that seemed all but impossible just 10 years ago – nation after nation finally getting serious on climate change.</p>
<p>Renewables are so cheap they’re getting built because they make money – at the expense of old fossil fuel plants. Electric vehicles are here, and will make life better, from cutting running costs to radically improving air quality in our cities. Many nations will achieve energy independence.</p>
<p>We are making rapid progress in greening the electric grid, with China building <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-solar-power-global-renewable-energy-leader">even more renewables</a> than its government targets. On the streets of Shanghai and Oslo, electric vehicles are a common sight. </p>
<p>These trends need to spread worldwide, and fast. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364">We just blew past 1.5 degrees. Game over on climate? Not yet</a>
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<p>Economic sectors that produce large volumes of emissions, such as concrete and steel making, are difficult to decarbonise and will take longer. Likewise for the <a href="https://carbonmonitor.org/">aviation</a> and <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cc2672en/cc2672en.pdf">food system</a> sectors, where emissions keep rising.</p>
<p>Renewables, after all, are a means to an end. The goal is to rapidly reduce the use of fossil fuels, with any unavoidable emissions captured and permanently sequestered.</p>
<p>Until now, the very best we’ve done is to meet the growth in global demand for energy with non-fossil fuel sources – not to actually cut emissions. To actually slash emissions means transformational change. </p>
<h2>Why the positive forecast?</h2>
<p>Our best climate projections, the rate we’re using our remaining carbon budget, and current climate policies in place all consistently lead us to <a href="https://nesp2climate.com.au/unmasking-our-carbon-and-climate-futures/">temperatures well past 1.5°C</a> by the end of the century. </p>
<p>So why is the International Energy Agency still floating the possibility of stabilising the climate at 1.5°C? </p>
<p>If you <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/4d93d947-c78a-47a9-b223-603e6c3fc7d8/NetZeroRoadmap_AGlobalPathwaytoKeepthe1.5CGoalinReach-2023Update.pdf">read the report</a>, it becomes clear. Achieving net zero at this late stage will mean overshooting 1.5°C – and then using trees and negative emissions technologies at a very large scale to bring us back to that level. </p>
<p>This will take the creation of a whole new industry of atmospheric greenhouse gas removal and decades of effort.</p>
<p>So even as the world accelerates climate action, the claim that we can avoid climate change from reaching and passing 1.5°C is out of reach. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">Global carbon emissions at record levels with no signs of shrinking, new data shows. Humanity has a monumental task ahead</a>
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<h2>What does this mean?</h2>
<p>If humanity blows past the target of 1.5°C and keeps warming the planet, it doesn’t mean we just give up. Every decimal of a degree avoided matters a lot. </p>
<p>We’re only at 1.2°C now, and extreme weather, fire activity and other damage from climate change is coming thick and fast. </p>
<p>But there are clear risks in relying too much on the potential of removing large quantities of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere while also bringing down emissions as close to zero as possible. </p>
<p>Overshooting 1.5°C has another important implication. For years, climate action – cutting emissions – has been at the forefront of global efforts. But we have been too slow. Now we have to adapt to the rapidly evolving climate, with new policies, investment and preparedness.</p>
<p>This is not a story of unavoidable catastrophe. Climate scientists, on the whole, are optimists. All the work being done means we’re finally seeing positive change. But the numbers don’t lie. We must get those emissions down. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ev-sales-growth-points-to-oil-demand-peaking-by-2030-so-why-is-the-oil-industry-doubling-down-on-production-213637">EV sales growth points to oil demand peaking by 2030 − so why is the oil industry doubling down on production?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214463/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Climate Systems Hub.</span></em></p>Holding climate change to 1.5 might be possible – but in the best case, we’ll blow past the limit first and then backpedal.Pep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141252023-09-26T15:00:50Z2023-09-26T15:00:50ZFossil fuel workers have the skills to succeed in green jobs, but location is a major barrier to a just transition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549816/original/file-20230922-28-33hz0i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=67%2C16%2C5599%2C3687&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Renewable energy jobs often aren't close to fossil fuel workers' homes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/portrait-of-a-wind-turbine-engineer-royalty-free-image/1433295579">Prapass Pulsub/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the U.S. shifts away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources, thousands of coal, oil and gas workers will be looking for new jobs. </p>
<p>Many will have the skills to step into new jobs in the emerging clean energy industries, but the transition may not be <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/15/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-advances-cleaner-industrial-sector-to-reduce-emissions-and-reinvigorate-american-manufacturing/">as simple as it seems</a>. New research published in the journal Nature Communications <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">identifies a major barrier</a> that is often overlooked in discussions of how to create a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/15/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-advances-cleaner-industrial-sector-to-reduce-emissions-and-reinvigorate-american-manufacturing/">just transition</a> for these workers: location.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HZcCKu8AAAAJ&hl=en">We</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pia9kOsAAAAJ&hl=en">analyzed</a> 14 years of fossil fuel employment and skills data and found that, while many fossil fuel workers <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">could transfer their skills to green jobs</a>, they historically have not relocated far when they changed jobs.</p>
<p>That suggests that it’s not enough to create green industry jobs. The jobs will have to be where the workers are, and most fossil fuel extraction workers are not in regions where green jobs are expected to grow. </p>
<p>Without careful planning and targeted policies, we estimate that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">only about 2%</a> of fossil fuel workers involved in extraction are likely to transition to green jobs this decade. Fortunately, there are ways to help smooth the transition.</p>
<h2>Many fossil fuel and green skills overlap</h2>
<p>As of 2019, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2021.02.22_BrookingsMetro_FossilFuel-MethodologyAppendix.pdf">about 1.7 million people</a> worked in jobs across the fossil fuels industry in the U.S., many of them in the regions from Texas and New Mexico to Montana and from Kentucky to Pennsylvania. As the country transitions from fossil fuel use to clean energy to protect the climate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-coal-industry-shrinks-miners-deserve-a-just-transition-heres-what-it-should-include-116340">many of those jobs will disappear</a>.</p>
<p>Policymakers tend to focus on skills training when they talk about the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20-climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf">importance of a just transition</a> for these workers and their communities.</p>
<p>To see how fossil fuel workers’ skills might transfer to green jobs, we used <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/onet">occupation and skills data</a> from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compare them. These profiles provide information about the required workplace skills for over 750 occupations, including earth drillers, underground mining machine operators and other extraction occupations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Workers in hard hats reach for pipes in a tall stand of pipes at a finishing well in Oklahoma." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549818/original/file-20230922-27-2sqfti.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fossil fuel extraction jobs and renewable energy jobs are often hands-on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-oil-well-worker-pumps-pipes-from-a-finishing-well-news-photo/509077802">J Pat Carter/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Overall, we found that many fossil fuel workers involved in extraction already have similar skills to those required in green occupations, <a href="https://institute.smartprosperity.ca/sites/default/files/transitionforfossilfuelworkers.pdf">as previous studies also found</a>. In fact, their skills tend to be more closely matched to green industries than most other industries.</p>
<p><a href="https://j2jexplorer.ces.census.gov/">Job-to-job flow data</a> from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that these workers historically tend to transition to other sectors with similar skills requirements. Thus, fossil fuel workers should be able to fill emerging green jobs with only minimal reskilling. </p>
<p>However, the data also shows that these fossil fuel workers <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">typically do not travel far</a> to fill employment opportunities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A worker stands in the nacelle of a wind turbine far above the ground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549723/original/file-20230922-19-rocz7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A technician makes adjustments to a wind turbine in Colorado.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/iip-photo-archive/23095737515">Dennis Schroeder/NREL</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The location problem</h2>
<p>When we mapped the <a href="https://sites.pitt.edu/%7Emrfrank/justTransitionDemo/">current locations</a> of wind, solar, hydro and geothermal power plants using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, we found that these sites had little overlap with fossil fuel workers.</p>
<p>The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ projections for where green jobs are <a href="https://www.bls.gov/emp/">likely to emerge by 2029</a> also showed little overlap with the locations of today’s fossil fuel workers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The map shows pockets across the U.S., such as California, the Upper Midwest and the Northeast" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=319&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550422/original/file-20230926-27-tzz4j9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where green jobs linked to solar, wind, geothermal and hydropower production can be found.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://sites.pitt.edu/~mrfrank/justTransitionDemo/">Morgan Frank/University of Pittsburgh</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These results were consistent across several green employment projections and different definitions of “fossil fuel” occupations. That’s alarming for the prospects of a just transition. </p>
<h2>How policymakers can intervene</h2>
<p>Broadly, our findings point to two potential strategies for policymakers.</p>
<p>First, policymakers can explore incentives and programs that help fossil fuel workers relocate. However, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41133-9">as our analysis</a> reveals, these populations have not historically exhibited geographic mobility.</p>
<p>Alternatively, policymakers could design incentives for green industry employers to build in fossil fuel communities. This might not be so simple. Green energy production often depends on where the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/wind/where-wind-power-is-harnessed.php">wind blows strongest</a>, <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar-resource-maps.html">solar power production is most effective</a> and <a href="https://www.nrel.gov/gis/geothermal.html">geothermal</a> power or hydropower is available.</p>
<p>We simulated the creation of new green industry employment in two different ways, one targeting fossil fuel communities and the other spread uniformly across the U.S. according to population. The targeted efforts led to significantly more transitions from fossil fuel to green jobs. For example, we found that creating 1 million location-targeted jobs produced more transitions than the creation of 5 million jobs that don’t take workers’ locations into account.</p>
<p>Another solution doesn’t involve green jobs at all. A similar analysis in our study of other existing U.S. sectors revealed that construction and manufacturing employment are already co-located with fossil fuel workers and would require only limited reskilling. Supporting manufacturing expansion in these areas could be a simpler solution that could limit the number of new employers needed to support a just transition.</p>
<p>There are other questions <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/07/21/biden-green-jobs-unions-labor/">that worry fossil fuel workers</a>, such as whether new jobs will pay as well and last beyond construction. More research is needed to assess effective policy interventions, but overall our study highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to a just transition that takes into account the unique challenges faced by fossil fuel workers in different regions. </p>
<p>By responding to these barriers, the U.S. can help ensure that the transition to a green economy is not only environmentally sustainable but also socially just.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morgan R. Frank receives funding from Russell Sage Foundation and the Heinz Endowment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Junghyun Lim received funding from Russell Sage Foundation and the Heinz Endowment.</span></em></p>In a greener future, what becomes of current fossil fuel workers? Despite possessing skills applicable to green industries, their geographical locations will limit their opportunities.Morgan R. Frank, Assistant Professor of Informatics, University of PittsburghJunghyun Lim, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112612023-08-20T20:04:13Z2023-08-20T20:04:13Z5 tips for getting off gas at home – for a cleaner, cheaper, healthier all-electric future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543177/original/file-20230817-23-84peqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=124%2C7%2C5052%2C3437&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/induction-cooking-home-on-black-portable-1477848773">Elena M. Tarasova, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Burning gas in our homes to cook food or heat air and water has become a contentious issue. Gas is an expensive, polluting fossil fuel, and there’s mounting evidence to suggest it’s also <a href="https://www1.racgp.org.au/ajgp/2022/december/health-risks-from-indoor-gas-appliances">bad for our health</a>. </p>
<p>Five million existing Australian households will need to <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/getting-off-gas/">get off gas</a> within the next 30 years. But for homeowners, the upfront cost can be a major barrier to action. Renters rarely get a say over the appliances installed in their homes. And apartment owners can struggle to make individual changes too. </p>
<p>In most cases it’s worth making the switch, for the energy bill savings alone. For example, analysis suggests a household in Melbourne switching from gas to electricity can save <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-electric-homes-are-better-for-your-hip-pocket-and-the-planet-heres-how-governments-can-help-us-get-off-gas-207409">up to A$13,900</a> over a decade.</p>
<p>If you’re contemplating upgrading gas appliances in your home, or even disconnecting from the gas network altogether, here are a few handy tips and resources to cut through the confusion. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2JuZgXz6zNo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Homes must switch away from gas by 2050, says policy think tank (ABC News)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/keen-to-get-off-gas-in-your-home-but-struggling-to-make-the-switch-research-shows-youre-not-alone-209589">Keen to get off gas in your home, but struggling to make the switch? Research shows you're not alone</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Tip 1 – Find trusted, independent information</h2>
<p>There is no shortage of information on how to make the switch from gas to all-electric appliances. The challenge is finding <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-a-lemon-law-to-make-all-the-homes-we-buy-and-rent-more-energy-efficient-204369">trusted and independent information</a>. </p>
<p>Not-for-profit organisation <a href="https://renew.org.au/">Renew</a> has compiled a range of <a href="https://renew.org.au/resources/how-we-can-help/efficient-electric-homes/how-we-can-help-going-off-gas/">presentations, guides, case studies and research</a>. <a href="https://www.choice.com.au/">Choice</a> provides independent reviews of household appliances, including operating costs. The Australian government’s <a href="https://www.energyrating.gov.au/">Energy Rating website</a> provides information on appliances to help consumers compare performance. Some <a href="https://www.yarracity.vic.gov.au/services/take-climate-action">local councils</a> and <a href="https://totallyrenewableyack.org.au/">community groups</a> also provide information, support and bulk-buying schemes.</p>
<p>You could also visit some of the all-electric homes open to the public for <a href="https://sustainablehouseday.com/">Sustainable House Day</a>. This can help you learn what works from people who have already made the change. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/MyEfficientElectricHome">My Efficient Electric Home</a> group on Facebook is another active and helpful forum. </p>
<p>If you are going all-electric as part of a wider retrofit, consider an independent <a href="https://www.homescorecard.gov.au/">Residential Efficiency Scorecard assessment</a>. This will help you understand what to else you can do to maximise <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-other-99-retrofitting-is-the-key-to-putting-more-australians-into-eco-homes-91231">thermal comfort, environmental benefits and financial outcomes</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1683654943033692160"}"></div></p>
<h2>Tip 2 – Plan your approach</h2>
<p>Once you understand what to do, the next step is planning how to go about it. Think about what is most important to your household. What is driving the change? If it’s your health, you might like to start by eliminating indoor air pollution from the gas stove. Or if you want to save money, start using reverse-cycle air conditioning to heat your home, rather than gas.</p>
<p>There are three main ways to go all-electric: </p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Replace all your gas appliances at once</strong>. Making the change quickly minimises disruption to your home. You may save money on installation costs by doing everything in one go. You will avoid ongoing fixed gas supply charges once you disconnect from the gas network, but you may be required to pay an “<a href="https://energy.act.gov.au/switching-off-your-gas-connection/">abolishment fee</a>” for permanent disconnection. That fee can vary significantly, depending on your location and gas provider. Costs <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/would-you-pay-1000-to-get-off-gas-consumer-dismay-over-disconnection-cost-20230223-p5cmw9.html">could be up to $1000 (or more)</a> but some states like Victoria have capped the price a <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/fossil-gas-death-spiral-regulator-sets-exit-fee-to-socialise-cost-of-mass-disconnection/">household can be charged at $220</a>. Renters wouldn’t be able to permanently disconnect without permission from the landlord, so they would still be open to paying the daily connection fee even if they found alternative electric options for everything else. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Replace your gas appliances one at a time</strong>, as finances allow. However, there will come a point where <a href="http://www.ata.org.au/wp-content/projects/CAP_Gas_Research_Final_Report_251114_v2.0.pdf">financially you will be better off</a> replacing all the remaining gas appliances. This is largely because it will not be affordable to keep paying the daily connection cost for gas if you just have one gas appliance remaining. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Just stop using gas appliances</strong> in favour of existing electric appliances that do the same job, such as a <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-traps-laid-by-the-fossil-gas-industry-for-uninformed-households/">reverse cycle air conditioner for space heating</a>. You may have – or can buy – plug-in electric alternatives, such as a microwave ovens, portable induction cooktops, air fryers and heaters. These can be a good option for renters when landlords won’t make changes.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cooking-and-heating-without-gas-what-are-the-impacts-of-shifting-to-all-electric-homes-210649">Cooking (and heating) without gas: what are the impacts of shifting to all-electric homes?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>You could even borrow portable appliances to see how they work before committing to buying your own. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tLjWZicC4mE?wmode=transparent&start=2" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Households share their electrification journey (Renew)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Tip 3 – Access available rebates and resources</h2>
<p>Most states offer various rebates for households to reduce the upfront cost of replacing gas appliances. These could reduce costs by thousands of dollars. Some rebates also target rental housing. Here is a list of key rebates available in different states:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.epw.qld.gov.au/about/initiatives/household-energy-savings-program">Queensland</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/households/rebates-grants-and-schemes">New South Wales</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.climatechoices.act.gov.au/policy-programs/home-energy-support-rebates-for-homeowners">ACT</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/for-households/victorian-energy-upgrades-for-households">Victoria</a></li>
<li><a href="https://recfit.tas.gov.au/household_energy/energy_saver_loan_scheme">Tasmania</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.sa.gov.au/topics/energy-and-environment/using-saving-energy/retailer-energy-productivity-scheme">South Australia</a></li>
</ul>
<p>Some not-for-profit organisations (such as the <a href="https://www.bsl.org.au/services/energy-assistance/">Brotherhood of St Laurence</a>) offer financial and other support for lower-income households struggling to pay their energy bills.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-an-easy-400-a-year-ditch-the-gas-heater-in-your-home-for-an-electric-split-system-201941">Want an easy $400 a year? Ditch the gas heater in your home for an electric split system</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Tip 4 – Wait for a sale or negotiate a better deal</h2>
<p>It might sound simple but you can always save money by waiting until these electric appliances are on sale. If you are buying multiple appliances you can try to negotiate a better price. Factory seconds outlets offer lower prices as well.</p>
<h2>Tip 5 – Know the issues</h2>
<p>While the shift to all-electric will likely provide many benefits there are some things you need to consider:</p>
<ul>
<li>The carbon emissions from electricity are falling fast, and many homes have rooftop solar. Combining <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/getting-off-gas/">all-electric with solar panels</a> will maximise returns. </li>
<li>You may have to adjust to how new technologies operate and perform. For example, you may need <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/goodfood/tips-and-advice/do-you-really-have-to-buy-new-cookware-all-your-burning-questions-about-induction-cooking-answered-20230810-p5dvd0.html">new, metallic cookware for an induction cooktop</a> and become familiar with their fast response. Additionally, some people find heat from reverse cycle air conditioners to be drier and/or draughtier than gas heating. Floor-mounted units heat more effectively. </li>
<li>It is not just the energy performance of appliances that matters. For example, noise from heat pump hot water services can vary across different brands. They can also require more space for installation.</li>
<li>Undertaking a wider energy retrofit (for example, increasing insulation in walls, ceiling and underfloor, upgrading windows to double glazing) may mean you can buy a smaller, cheaper reverse cycle air conditioner when replacing gas heating.</li>
<li>Electric appliances also need maintenance to make sure they perform optimally. For example, reverse cycle air conditioners have filters that must be regularly cleaned. While this can be done by households, it can be hard for people with mobility issues.</li>
<li>Depending on the capacity of your electricity switchboard or wiring, extra electric appliances may require upgrades.</li>
<li>For renters, while you could use portable appliances, you may not be able to disconnect from gas completely, meaning you would still have to pay a daily connection fee.</li>
<li>Gas and electricity prices can change over time, for many reasons. For example, if fixed gas distribution costs are spread over fewer customers.</li>
</ul>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1689422889182003201"}"></div></p>
<h2>A worthwhile investment</h2>
<p>Australian states and territories have started banning gas in new builds. Victoria and the ACT will soon require <a href="https://theconversation.com/cooking-and-heating-without-gas-what-are-the-impacts-of-shifting-to-all-electric-homes-210649">new housing and major renovations to be all-electric</a>. Others are likely to follow. </p>
<p>For people in existing housing around Australia, it can be daunting to make the switch. Many of us have grown up with gas in our homes and when one appliance breaks, the easiest thing to do is replace like-for-like. But the weight of evidence shows it’s worth taking the time to look at the alteratives and invest in upgrading to all-electric appliances. The benefits far outweigh the costs. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/all-electric-homes-are-better-for-your-hip-pocket-and-the-planet-heres-how-governments-can-help-us-get-off-gas-207409">All-electric homes are better for your hip pocket and the planet. Here's how governments can help us get off gas</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211261/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Trivess Moore has received funding from various organisations including the Australian Research Council, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Victorian Government and various industry partners. He is a trustee of the Fuel Poverty Research Network.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Pears consults to and advises a number of not-for-profit organisations involved in transition from gas issues such as the Australian Alliance for Energy Productivity, Energy Efficiency Council, Renew. He has received funding from A2EP, EEC and Energy Consumers Australia for work in this area. He writes a regular column for Renew magazine, and for other websites such as Reneweconomy and thefifthestate. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicola Willand receives or has received funding for research from various organisations, including the Australian Research Council, the Victorian State Government, the Lord Mayor’s Charitable Foundation, the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, the Future Fuels Collaborative Research Centre, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Centre and the British Academy. She is affiliated with the Australian Institute of Architects.</span></em></p>Thinking about getting your home off gas, but don’t know where to begin? Here’s a few handy tips to get you on your way.Trivess Moore, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT UniversityAlan Pears, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT UniversityNicola Willand, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060002023-08-08T20:04:13Z2023-08-08T20:04:13ZDarwin’s ‘sustainable’ Middle Arm project reveals Australia’s huge climate policy gamble<p>Protesters <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/aug/08/australia-politics-live-doctors-rally-gas-northern-territory-beetaloo-middle-arm-teals-greens-fracking-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-indigenous-voice-question-time?page=with:block-64d16ac58f082f4d589154d7#block-64d16ac58f082f4d589154d7">rallied</a> at Parliament House in Canberra on Tuesday, railing against Darwin’s controversial <a href="https://middlearmprecinct.nt.gov.au/about-the-precinct">Middle Arm venture</a> which critics say would benefit the gas industry.</p>
<p>The project has been thrust into the headlines of late. Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/01/natasha-fyles-national-press-club-northern-territory-nt-middle-arm-development">drew the ire</a> of critics last week in a speech to the National Press Club where she insisted her government was “not for turning” on the project.</p>
<p>Fyles describes Middle Arm as a “sustainable development precinct”. But that claim is highly questionable. The site is already home to two gas facilities, and more are planned. Meanwhile, the NT is pursuing a goal of net zero emissions by 2050 and has committed to “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/04/nt-government-accused-of-failing-to-address-climate-risks-before-approving-beetaloo-basin-gas-project">no net increase</a>” in emissions from fracking. So what’s going on?</p>
<p>It comes down to a new buzz-term in policymaking: “circular economy”. We’ve heard it applied to realms such as plastics and food waste. It’s increasingly being <a href="https://www.cceguide.org/guide/">applied to carbon emissions</a>, to describe an imagined scenario where carbon released from one source is used or stored by others to create a “closed loop” system.</p>
<p>But as our <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/area.12893">new research</a> finds, this path is a massive gamble. Such offsetting relies on projects and technologies that do not yet exist, or are not yet feasible at scale. In effect, the Middle Arm project, and others like it, are grand experiments with our climate.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1688766163537248256"}"></div></p>
<h2>The ‘circular’ economy</h2>
<p>Over the past two decades, international climate policy has increasingly shifted towards a circular model of managing carbon emissions. We’ve seen this happening not just in Australia, but places such as Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union and Saudi Arabia.</p>
<p>The strategy doesn’t seek to reach net-zero simply by pumping less carbon into the atmosphere – for example, by deploying renewable energy. It also involves activities that remove, capture, store or use carbon, therefore “offsetting” or cancelling out emissions from other sources.</p>
<p>Proponents of the strategy characterise it as a simple matter of inputs (emissions) and outputs (offsets) cancelling each other out. But implementing the model is actually very messy, as our <a href="https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/area.12893">new paper</a> shows. </p>
<p>We analysed how the federal and NT governments have sought to implement circular carbon policies, including through the Middle Arm development. </p>
<p>Due to its existing gas infrastructure and proximity to Darwin, this peninsula has long been the target of grand development plans. In July 2020, the NT government announced it would create an <a href="https://ntrebound.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/908314/terc-first-report.pdf">industrial petrochemical precinct</a> there to use gas from the Beetaloo and offshore fields. </p>
<p>The following year, the hub was rebranded as a “sustainable development precinct”. References to “petrochemicals” were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-26/nt-petrochemicals-deleted-middle-arm-website-greenwashing/101700374">abandoned</a>. The NT government now frequently talks up the site’s potential for hydrogen and carbon-capture facilities, and <a href="https://middlearmprecinct.nt.gov.au">says</a> the precinct will be:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>largely powered by renewables, master-planned to achieve a circular economy approach of sustainable and responsible production and will use technology to achieve low-to-zero emissions.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The federal government has <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/25-billion-infrastructure-boost-northern-territory">committed</a> more than A$1.5 billion to the development.</p>
<h2>‘Sustainable’ claims called into question</h2>
<p>There are serious doubts over Middle Arm’s environmental credentials.</p>
<p>For example, internal government documents <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/darwins-sustainable-middle-arm-development-is-key-to-huge-fossil-fuel-projects-documents-show">make clear</a> the precinct is “seen as a key enabler” of the gas industry.</p>
<p>One confirmed future tenant will be Tamboran Resources, which plans to frack and drill for gas in the Beetaloo Basin. Tamboran intends to build a gas plant in the precinct. Federal crossbenchers, including Warringah MP Zali Steggall, have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/18/darwins-sustainable-middle-arm-development-is-key-to-huge-fossil-fuel-projects-documents-show">questioned why</a> public money is being spent on infrastructure “for a private gas company to make record profits from exports”.</p>
<p>What’s more, low-emissions projects planned for the precinct rely on highly speculative technologies.</p>
<p>A carbon-capture and storage facility has been mooted at the site. Announcing the project in 2021, the NT government <a href="https://innovation.nt.gov.au/news/2021/world-class-low-emissions-hub">called it</a> a “a game-changer”. But it neglected to mention that the project relies on unproven technology and has no timeline or guarantee of delivery. </p>
<p>For examples of this, we need only look to Chevron’s Gorgon gas project in Western Australia. The project was supposed to capture at least 80% of CO₂ from the gas it produces. After a three-year delay, carbon capture and storage began in 2019 but has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/16/gas-giant-chevron-falls-further-behind-on-carbon-capture-targets-for-gorgon-gasfield">consistently</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/21/emissions-wa-gas-project-chevron-carbon-capture-system-pilbara-coast">failed</a> to reach its targets.</p>
<p>Claims that Middle Arm would substantially be powered by renewable energy are also in doubt. The Sun Cable solar project – once billed as the largest solar energy development in the southern hemisphere – was <a href="https://industry.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/935382/sun-cable-ess-ip-submission.pdf">planning</a> a battery at the site. But in 2023 the company went into <a href="https://suncable.energy/sun-cable-enters-voluntary-administration-strong-development-progress-and-portfolio-provides-opportunity-for-refreshed-alignment-between-company-and-investor-objectives/">administration</a> and its future is unclear. </p>
<p>Questions also surround Middle Arm’s two proposed green hydrogen projects. Neither company involved has ever built a green hydrogen facility. One of the companies, Total Eren, intends to use <a href="https://energyclubnt.com.au/news/12883669">solar energy</a> from a facility that has not yet been assessed let alone approved for construction.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/opening-10-new-oil-and-gas-sites-is-a-win-for-fossil-fuel-companies-but-a-staggering-loss-for-the-rest-of-australia-189374">Opening 10 new oil and gas sites is a win for fossil fuel companies – but a staggering loss for the rest of Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map of the proposed Middle Arm precinct on Darwin Harbour." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541625/original/file-20230808-15-axllu7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of the proposed Middle Arm precinct on Darwin Harbour.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Land Development Corporation</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Offsets won’t save us, either</h2>
<p>As part of its “decarbonisation” plan, the NT is <a href="https://ntrebound.nt.gov.au/publications/final-report">set to grow</a> its carbon offset industries.</p>
<p>And in 2021, the then Coalition government released a <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-long-term-emissions-reduction-plan">climate plan</a> in which more than half the carbon savings would be achieved via carbon offsets, as well as unspecified “technology breakthroughs”.</p>
<p>Carbon offsets are used by polluters to compensate for their emissions. It involves buying “carbon credits” from organisations that have undertaken activities to reduce emissions.</p>
<p>Carbon offsets are contentious because they allow companies to keep pumping out carbon. And ensuring carbon credits represent genuine emissions reduction can be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01592-2">difficult</a>.</p>
<p>We’ve seen this in Australia, where the integrity of certain carbon methods has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-blew-the-whistle-on-australias-central-climate-policy-heres-what-a-new-federal-government-probe-must-fix-185894">questioned</a>. An independent review of the overall scheme concluded it was essentially sound, but critics <a href="https://theconversation.com/chubb-review-of-australias-carbon-credit-scheme-falls-short-and-problems-will-continue-to-fester-197401">say</a> key questions remain. Further, there are <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/03/19/angus-taylors-35-billion-carbon-blunder/164760840013513">signs</a> we do not have enough credits to meet market demand.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>The goal of Australian governments to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 increasingly relies on gambits such as the Middle Arm precinct and speculative methods for offsetting and burying emissions. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the world has just experienced its hottest month on record. And in temperate Australia, a hot, dry El Nino summer is approaching. </p>
<p>At a time like this, we must focus on achieving genuine emissions reductions, rather than playing risky games with our climate. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/limitless-energy-how-floating-solar-panels-near-the-equator-could-power-future-population-hotspots-210557">'Limitless' energy: how floating solar panels near the equator could power future population hotspots</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206000/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Neale receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Natural Hazards Research Australia, and the Country Fire Authority.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kari Dahlgren receives research funding from CitiPower, Powercor, and United Energy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Kearnes receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with the NSW Geographical Society. </span></em></p>The project’s environmental credentials rely on highly speculative technologies, making Middle Arm a grand experiment with our climate.Timothy Neale, Senior Research Fellow, Deakin UniversityKari Dahlgren, Research Fellow Emerging Technologies Research Lab, Monash UniversityMatthew Kearnes, Professor, Environment & Society, School of Humanities and Languages, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2108462023-08-02T16:53:32Z2023-08-02T16:53:32ZScience shows the severe climate consequences of new fossil fuel extraction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540723/original/file-20230802-29-p10zec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1086%2C0%2C4904%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An offshore drilling platform.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sea-drilling-platform-650001655">Mike Mareen/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world has just suffered through its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jul/27/scientists-july-world-hottest-month-record-climate-temperatures">warmest month ever recorded</a>. Heatwaves have swept across <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/heatwaves-wildfires-mark-summer-of-extremes">southern Europe, the US and China</a>, breaking many temperature records in the process. </p>
<p>Climate scientists have been sounding the alarm <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/wg1/">for decades</a> that this type of event will become more frequent as the world continues to warm. The major culprit behind this is the burning of fossil fuels. So it’s extremely concerning that the UK government <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hundreds-of-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-licences-to-boost-british-energy-independence-and-grow-the-economy-31-july-2023">has announced</a> its intention to grant hundreds of licences for new North Sea oil and gas extraction.</p>
<p>Although burning fossil fuels to generate power and heat has enabled society to develop and flourish, we are now experiencing the unintended side effects. The carbon dioxide that has been added to the atmosphere is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">leading to a rise</a> in global temperatures, causing heatwaves to become hotter and downpours more intense. The resulting large-scale disruption and suffering is becoming ever more visible. </p>
<p>This warming will continue, with worsening climatic consequences, until we reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to “net zero”. After that, we will still have to live and suffer in a warmer climate for generations. The collective choices we make now will matter in the future.</p>
<p>The small-scale, but high-profile, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/05/just-stop-oil-activists-convicted-obstructing-highway-london">disruptions caused by Just Stop Oil protesters</a> in the UK are extremely frustrating for many. But their single demand – for no licenses for new UK coal, oil and gas projects – is consistent with the science underpinning the international agreements that the UK has signed. </p>
<h2>Temperatures are rising</h2>
<p>Since the 1860s, the scientific community <a href="https://www.rigb.org/explore-science/explore/blog/who-discovered-greenhouse-effect">has understood</a> that adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would warm the climate. And as long ago as 1938, the burning of fossil fuels was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2013/apr/22/guy-callendar-climate-fossil-fuels">linked</a> to the observed rise in both carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures. Fast forward to now and global temperatures are warmer, and increasing faster, than at any point in human civilisation.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1686479519438254080"}"></div></p>
<p>In response to the overwhelming scientific evidence, the UK and 193 other nations came together in 2015 to ratify the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement">Paris agreement on climate change</a>. One of the agreed goals is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and even aim for 1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial era. </p>
<p>However, the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf">synthesis report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which all governments explicitly endorsed, paints a stark reality. If we burn all of the fossil fuels that we currently have access to, then global warming will exceed 1.5°C and may reach 2°C. </p>
<p>To avoid breaching the limits set out by the Paris agreement, some of the coal, oil and gas that we can already extract must remain unburnt. New fossil fuel extraction projects will make it even harder to stop further global warming. </p>
<h2>Build up renewable infrastructure</h2>
<p>There are other options. The UK government’s official advisers, the Climate Change Committee, have put forward a vision for UK power generation consistent with a net zero future. They <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/delivering-a-reliable-decarbonised-power-system/">say that</a> the UK could provide all of its energy needs by 2050 through a combination of renewables, bioenergy, nuclear, hydrogen, storage and demand management, with some carbon capture and storage for fossil gas-based generation in the meantime.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A family walking dogs on a beach in front of an offshore wind farm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The UK can achieve energy security without causing additional global warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wind-farm-off-coast-yarmouth-family-1216647160">Nigel Jarvis/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the UK followed the example of China and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-widens-renewable-energy-supply-lead-with-wind-power-push-2023-03-01/">rapidly increased</a> its investments in renewable energy, then it could achieve energy security without causing additional global warming. China emits the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions">most carbon dioxide</a> of any country in the world. But it is installing more <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrvetter/2022/01/26/china-built-more-offshore-wind-in-2021-than-every-other-country-built-in-5-years/">renewable energy generation</a> than the rest of the world combined.</p>
<p>Rapidly reducing our reliance on fossil fuels, and not issuing new licenses to extract oil and gas, is the most effective way of minimising future climate-related disruptions. The sooner those with the power to shape our future recognise this, the better.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ed Hawkins receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council.</span></em></p>More than a century of research shows that burning fossil fuels warms the climate – that’s exactly why granting new North Sea oil and gas licenses is a bad idea.Ed Hawkins, Professor of Climate Science, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2106492023-07-31T20:01:05Z2023-07-31T20:01:05ZCooking (and heating) without gas: what are the impacts of shifting to all-electric homes?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540063/original/file-20230731-238580-434fnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=446%2C0%2C4289%2C2868&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Gas connections for all new housing and sub-divisions will be <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-victorian-homes-go-all-electric-2024">banned in Victoria</a> from January 1 next year. The long-term result of the state government’s significant change to planning approvals will be all-electric housing. The ACT made <a href="https://www.climatechoices.act.gov.au/policy-programs/preventing-new-gas-network-connections">similar changes</a> early this year, in line with a shift away from gas across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47559920">Europe</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/19/gas-stove-culture-war-united-states">other locations</a>, although the NSW Premier Chris Minns has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/31/nsw-wont-ban-gas-in-new-homes-as-premier-declares-i-dont-need-another-complication">baulked</a> at doing the same. </p>
<p>Around <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy/victorias-gas-substitution-roadmap">80% of homes</a> in Victoria are connected to gas. This high uptake was driven by gas being seen as more affordable and sustainable than electricity over past decades. The situation has <a href="https://www.iea.org/events/net-zero-by-2050-a-roadmap-for-the-global-energy-system">changed dramatically</a> as renewable electricity generation increases and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-27/aemo-wholesale-electricity-prices-fall-impact-power-bills/102654498">costs fall</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/all-electric-homes-are-better-for-your-hip-pocket-and-the-planet-heres-how-governments-can-help-us-get-off-gas-207409">Research</a> has suggested for more than a decade that the benefits of all-electric homes <a href="https://bze.org.au/research_release/energy-efficient-buildings-plan/">stack up in many locations</a>. New homes built under mandatory building energy performance standards (increasing from <a href="https://thefifthestate.com.au/innovation/building-construction/victoria-kicks-the-can-down-the-road-again-on-the-national-construction-code/">6 to 7 stars</a> in Victoria in May 2024) need smaller, cheaper heating and cooling systems. Installing reverse-cycle air conditioning for cooling provides a cost-effective heater as a bonus. </p>
<p>Savings from not requiring gas pipes, appliances and gas supply infrastructure help to offset the costs of highly efficient electric appliances. Mandating fully electric homes means economies of scale will further reduce costs. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/all-electric-homes-are-better-for-your-hip-pocket-and-the-planet-heres-how-governments-can-help-us-get-off-gas-207409">All-electric homes are better for your hip pocket and the planet. Here's how governments can help us get off gas</a>
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<h2>How does this ban help?</h2>
<p>To achieve environmentally sustainable development, reforms of planning policy and regulation <a href="https://theconversation.com/sustainable-cities-australias-building-and-planning-rules-stand-in-the-way-of-getting-there-84263">are essential</a> to convert innovation and best practice to mainstream practice. Planning policy is particularly important for apartment buildings and other housing that may be rented or have an owners’ corporation. Retrofits to improve energy efficiency can be difficult in these situations. </p>
<p>Banning gas in new and renovated housing will <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/getting-off-gas/">cut greenhouse gas emissions</a>. It’s also <a href="https://theconversation.com/gas-cooking-is-associated-with-worsening-asthma-in-kids-but-proper-ventilation-helps-151591">healthier for households</a> and <a href="https://www.sustainability.vic.gov.au/research-data-and-insights/research/research-reports/the-victorian-healthy-homes-program-research-findings">reduces healthcare costs</a> as well as <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/getting-off-gas/">energy bills and infrastructure costs</a>. The Victorian government suggests the change will save all-electric households <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-victorian-homes-go-all-electric-2024">about $1,000 a year</a>. Houses with solar will be even better off.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-pumps-can-cut-your-energy-costs-by-up-to-90-its-not-magic-just-a-smart-use-of-the-laws-of-physics-185711">Heat pumps can cut your energy costs by up to 90%. It’s not magic, just a smart use of the laws of physics</a>
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<p>The government appears to be offering wide support to ensure these changes happen, but this will need to be monitored closely.</p>
<p>Some households will face extra costs for electric appliances and solar panels. The government’s announcement of <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-victorian-homes-go-all-electric-2024">$10 million</a> for Residential Electrification Grants should help with some of these costs while the industry adjusts.</p>
<p>There will be impacts and benefits for the local economy. Some jobs may be lost, particularly in the gas appliance and plumbing industry. The government has announced financial support to retrain people and they will still have essential roles in the existing housing sector. </p>
<p>Many gas appliances are imported, including ovens, cooktops and instantaneous gas water heaters. Some components of efficient electric products, such as hot water storage tanks, are made locally. Local activities, including distribution, sales, design, installation and maintenance, comprise much of the overall cost. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An electric heat pump installed next to a gas meter outside a home" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540062/original/file-20230731-3718-wtpcdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540062/original/file-20230731-3718-wtpcdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540062/original/file-20230731-3718-wtpcdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540062/original/file-20230731-3718-wtpcdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540062/original/file-20230731-3718-wtpcdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540062/original/file-20230731-3718-wtpcdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540062/original/file-20230731-3718-wtpcdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Households will ultimately benefit from avoiding the costs of having both electricity and gas services.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/keen-to-get-off-gas-in-your-home-but-struggling-to-make-the-switch-research-shows-youre-not-alone-209589">Keen to get off gas in your home, but struggling to make the switch? Research shows you're not alone</a>
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<h2>Challenges of change must be managed</h2>
<p>Sustainability benefits will depend on what <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/getting-off-gas/">happens with the energy network</a>. We need more renewable energy, energy storage and smarter management of electricity demand.</p>
<p>The shift to all-electric homes may mean winter peak demand for heating increases. Energy market operators and governments will have to monitor demand changes carefully to avoid the reliability issues we already see in summer. However, improving energy efficiency, energy storage and demand management will help reduce this load (and household costs).</p>
<p>While the benefits are clear for new homes, the changes may <a href="https://www.bsl.org.au/research/publications/enabling-electrification/">increase gas costs and energy poverty</a> for residents of existing housing who don’t shift to efficient electric solutions. The government has reconfirmed financial rebates to help households switch from gas. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-power-can-cut-living-costs-but-its-not-an-option-for-many-people-they-need-better-support-201090">Solar power can cut living costs, but it's not an option for many people – they need better support</a>
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<p>In addition, existing housing may face building quality and performance issues. Some may require electrical wiring upgrades as part of the transition. </p>
<p>Social acceptance of some electric appliances may also be an issue. For example, <a href="https://www.rmit.edu.au/about/schools-colleges/property-construction-and-project-management/research/research-centres-and-groups/sustainable-building-innovation-laboratory/projects/heet-housing-energy-efficiency-transitions">our research</a> has found some households dislike the way heating from reverse cycle air conditioners feels. Others do not like cooking on induction cooktops. </p>
<p>Consumer education and modifications to appliances and buildings may be needed to increase acceptance and avoid backlash.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="pot on the boil on a gas stove with a woman preparing food in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540064/original/file-20230731-105442-1c4ax5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540064/original/file-20230731-105442-1c4ax5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540064/original/file-20230731-105442-1c4ax5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540064/original/file-20230731-105442-1c4ax5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540064/original/file-20230731-105442-1c4ax5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540064/original/file-20230731-105442-1c4ax5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540064/original/file-20230731-105442-1c4ax5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Some people prefer gas cooktops despite their impacts on health and emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Some electric appliances are available overseas but not in Australia. Higher demand may increase the range of imports. For example, floor-mounted heat pumps can make heating feel similar to gas heating while still providing effective cooling.</p>
<p>We should not assume electric appliances are all equal. To improve consumer protection, action is needed on weak standards and limited and inconsistent public information. For example, information on noise levels and efficiency under a range of weather conditions must be standardised.</p>
<p>Moving housing away from gas is an <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-2760-9">important step</a> in the transition to a zero-carbon economy and energy system. Careful management is needed to ensure this transition is effective, accepted and fair. </p>
<p>Continued planning reforms are also essential to ensure environmentally sustainable development of housing and communities. Other urgent priorities include urban cooling and greening, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/turning-the-housing-crisis-around-how-a-circular-economy-can-give-us-affordable-sustainable-homes-208745">circular economy approaches</a> to reduce the material and waste impacts of housing and thus the carbon that goes into building and running homes.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/turning-the-housing-crisis-around-how-a-circular-economy-can-give-us-affordable-sustainable-homes-208745">Turning the housing crisis around: how a circular economy can give us affordable, sustainable homes</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210649/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Trivess Moore has received funding from various organisations including the Australian Research Council, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Victorian Government and various industry partners and is currently working on a project funded by the Future Fuels CRC exploring the use of gas and electricity in Victorian homes. He is a trustee of the Fuel Poverty Research Network.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Pears consults to and advises a number of industry organisations, government agencies and community groups. He has received funding from and has affiliations with government agencies, community groups and industry groups with interests in housing, climate and energy policy. He has received funding from various organisations including ARENA, RMIT University, University of Melbourne, RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre, Victorian and Australian Governments and various industry partners. He is currently working with the Australian Alliance for Energy Productivity.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joe Hurley has received funding from various organisations including the Federal Government, the Victorian Government and various industry partners and is currently working on a project funded by the Australian Research Council on measuring cumulative heat in Australian cities. He is a on the technical advisory committee for the Council Alliance for Sustainable Built Environment.</span></em></p>The ban on gas connections to new homes in Victoria reflects global trends and will ultimately save households money and cut their emissions.Trivess Moore, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT UniversityAlan Pears, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT UniversityJoe Hurley, Associate Professor, Sustainability and Urban Planning, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2095892023-07-24T02:39:07Z2023-07-24T02:39:07ZKeen to get off gas in your home, but struggling to make the switch? Research shows you’re not alone<p>More than five million households in Australia are connected to the gas network. Tackling climate change requires homes and businesses to move away from gas, and instead embrace electric appliances as the power grid shifts to renewable energy.</p>
<p>People can <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Getting-off-gas-why-how-and-who-should-pay.pdf">save</a> considerable money by switching away from gas – even more so if they have solar panels installed. But still, millions of Australians haven’t yet made the move. Why?</p>
<p>Our new research, <a href="https://www.bsl.org.au/research/publications/enabling-electrification/">released today</a>, seeks to shed light on this question. We focused on lower-income households in Victoria and found while most participants supported the transition from gas, few owned electric appliances for heating, cooking and hot water. </p>
<p>There were two main barriers: people couldn’t afford the upfront cost of buying new electric appliances, or were renting and so had little or no say over what appliances were installed. Overcoming these and other challenges is crucial to ensure no-one gets left behind in Australia’s energy transition. </p>
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<img alt="baby floating in bath beside rubber ducks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538551/original/file-20230720-15-10gmso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538551/original/file-20230720-15-10gmso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538551/original/file-20230720-15-10gmso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538551/original/file-20230720-15-10gmso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538551/original/file-20230720-15-10gmso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538551/original/file-20230720-15-10gmso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538551/original/file-20230720-15-10gmso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Few study participants owned electric appliances for heating, cooking and hot water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Making it fair for all</h2>
<p>Victoria has <a href="https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/climate-action-targets">committed</a> to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. To help achieve this, the state government is developing a <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/renewable-energy/victorias-gas-substitution-roadmap">plan</a> for the state to electrify. Other states and <a href="https://www.climatechoices.act.gov.au/energy/switching-from-gas#:%7E:text=The%20ACT%20will%20transition%20away%20from%20fossil%20fuel,ACT%20during%203%20March%20%E2%80%93%2020%20April%202023.">territories</a> are also moving in this direction. </p>
<p>But to date, not enough research and policy attention has been paid to making this transition fair and equitable for everyone.</p>
<p>Low-income households <a href="https://www.bsl.org.au/research/publications/energy-stressed-in-australia/">spend</a> a larger proportion of their income on energy bills compared to higher-income households. This is despite those households using less energy.</p>
<p>The affordability of gas will become worse as more households electrify. That’s because part of a gas bill includes the fixed cost of running gas infrastructure – so as progressively fewer people use gas, the remaining users pay more. </p>
<p>And those who don’t make the move away from gas miss out on the long-term economic benefits. <a href="https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0039/579882/Victorias-Gas-Substitution-Roadmap-Embracing-electricity-to-cut-your-bills-at-home.pdf">Analysis</a> last year suggested a typical Victorian household could reduce its annual energy costs by A$1,020 by replacing gas heating, cooking and hot water systems with electric ones. The figure rises to $1,250 for those with solar power. These savings will be amplified if the price of gas continues to rise relative to electricity.</p>
<p>That’s why it’s important to help as many lower-income people as possible to make the switch to electric appliances. Our research set out to understand what might prevent or enable that shift. </p>
<p>We studied households in Victoria: the state with the highest prevalence of residential gas use in Australia and where plans for an economy-wide transition away from fossil gas are underway.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/all-electric-homes-are-better-for-your-hip-pocket-and-the-planet-heres-how-governments-can-help-us-get-off-gas-207409">All-electric homes are better for your hip pocket and the planet. Here's how governments can help us get off gas</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="hands reach towards gas heater" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538553/original/file-20230720-21-zgmt4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538553/original/file-20230720-21-zgmt4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538553/original/file-20230720-21-zgmt4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538553/original/file-20230720-21-zgmt4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538553/original/file-20230720-21-zgmt4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538553/original/file-20230720-21-zgmt4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538553/original/file-20230720-21-zgmt4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Gas will become less affordable as more people move to electric appliances.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>We conducted an online survey, which received 220 eligible responses. We also undertook focus groups with 34 people. All participants were from lower-income households.</p>
<p>Most participants – 88% – used gas in the home, reflecting its prevalence in Victoria.</p>
<p>More than two-thirds indicated some level of support for a transition away from household gas to cleaner energy sources. Support was greater with higher levels of education. There was no significant difference based on financial stress, housing tenure, location or age. </p>
<p>But this support had not translated into action. Just one in ten surveyed households had replaced gas appliances with electric ones within the past five years. Among those who had switched or planned to switch, the main reasons were lower running costs and environmental benefits. </p>
<p>Respondents considered electric appliances to be safer and better for the environment. Gas appliances were considered better for heating and cooking. Many respondents were unsure about the relative benefits of electric versus gas appliances when it came to cost, reliability, safety and the environment. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538548/original/file-20230720-15-61nj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538548/original/file-20230720-15-61nj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538548/original/file-20230720-15-61nj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538548/original/file-20230720-15-61nj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=175&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538548/original/file-20230720-15-61nj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=221&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538548/original/file-20230720-15-61nj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=221&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538548/original/file-20230720-15-61nj78.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=221&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graph showing the benefits of gas versus electric appliances, as perceived by participants in the study.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Preferences were strongly linked to what people were currently using. Most people preferred gas cooktops over electric ones, because of the perceived speed, ease and flexibility. However, few participants had used electric induction stoves, which can also offer these benefits.</p>
<p>People who spoke a language other than English were significantly more likely to prefer gas for heating and hot water.</p>
<p>For those who had not replaced gas appliances, being a renter was one of the biggest barriers to electrification. Some renters said they lived in poor housing, but were unwilling to request improvements in case the landlord increased the rent or evicted them. </p>
<p>Respondents also said they would struggle to afford the upfront costs of electrification, such as buying new appliances and, in some cases, wiring upgrades and other building modifications. </p>
<p>Many participants were aware of and had received state government assistance to help with energy bills. But far fewer people knew about or had used <a href="https://www.solar.vic.gov.au/home-heating-cooling-upgrades?redirectSrc=heatingupgrades.vic.gov.au">programs</a> that could support them to adopt electric appliances.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gas-cooking-is-associated-with-worsening-asthma-in-kids-but-proper-ventilation-helps-151591">Gas cooking is associated with worsening asthma in kids. But proper ventilation helps</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Embracing the switch</h2>
<p>An overall strategy is needed to help all households make the shift to electric appliances and technology. Our research suggests this must include specific measures for lower-income households, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>targeted and well-promoted electrification programs</p></li>
<li><p>more evidence-based information on the benefits of electric appliances</p></li>
<li><p>incentives for landlords and standards requiring efficient electric appliances in rental homes</p></li>
<li><p>means-tested rebates for electric appliances such as reverse cycle air-conditioners and heat pump hot water, and where appropriate, no- or low-interest loans. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>These measures should, where possible, be linked to measures to improve household energy efficiency. And lower-income households, as well as others facing barriers to getting off gas, must be included when planning the transition. </p>
<p><em>Researchers David Bryant and Damian Sullivan from the Brotherhood of St Laurence contributed to this article and co-authored the research upon which it is based.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-pumps-can-cut-your-energy-costs-by-up-to-90-its-not-magic-just-a-smart-use-of-the-laws-of-physics-185711">Heat pumps can cut your energy costs by up to 90%. It’s not magic, just a smart use of the laws of physics</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209589/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sangeetha Chandrashekeran receives funding from the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course (Project ID CE200100025). This project was also funded by Energy Consumers Australia (<a href="http://www.energyconsumersaustralia.com.au">www.energyconsumersaustralia.com.au</a>) as part of its grants process for consumer advocacy projects and research projects. The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of Energy Consumers Australia.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia de Bruyn worked for the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course (Project ID CE200100025) at the time of conducting this research. This project was also funded by Energy Consumers Australia (<a href="http://www.energyconsumersaustralia.com.au">www.energyconsumersaustralia.com.au</a>) as part of its grants process for consumer advocacy projects and research projects. The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of Energy Consumers Australia.</span></em></p>Victoria has a plan for the state to electrify, but how do we make the transition fair and equitable for everyone? New research suggests a way forward.Sangeetha Chandrashekeran, Senior Research Fellow, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, The University of MelbourneJulia de Bruyn, Associate Investigator, ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2074092023-06-18T20:08:19Z2023-06-18T20:08:19ZAll-electric homes are better for your hip pocket and the planet. Here’s how governments can help us get off gas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532119/original/file-20230615-24-89xqx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C40%2C6689%2C4426&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woman-cooking-tasty-rice-vegetables-on-2034240113">Pixel-Shot, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If every Australian household that uses gas went all-electric today, we would “save” more than 30 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions over the next ten years. That’s because there are more than <a href="https://www.energynetworks.com.au/resources/fact-sheets/reliable-and-clean-gas-for-australian-homes-2/">5 million households</a> on the gas network, and the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/getting-off-gas">avoided emissions per home</a> ranges from 5-25 tonnes over the coming decade, depending on the location.</p>
<p>Most people would spend less money on energy too. Electric appliances use less energy than gas appliances to do the same job, making them cheaper to run.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/getting-off-gas">new report</a> shows how much most households can save by switching from gas to electricity for heating, hot water and cooking. The extra cash couldn’t come at a better time: about <a href="https://www.rmit.edu.au/news/all-news/2023/may/hidden-energy-poverty">a quarter of Australian households</a> say they found it difficult to pay their energy bills this year. </p>
<p>But many households face hurdles that stop them, or make it hard for them, to go all-electric. Governments could make it easier for people and bring emissions-reduction targets closer to reality. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-an-easy-400-a-year-ditch-the-gas-heater-in-your-home-for-an-electric-split-system-201941">Want an easy $400 a year? Ditch the gas heater in your home for an electric split system</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Most households save by upgrading to electric</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532139/original/file-20230615-29-h20bv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart showing estimated savings for each household switching from gas to electricity, over 10 years, in each capital city" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532139/original/file-20230615-29-h20bv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532139/original/file-20230615-29-h20bv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532139/original/file-20230615-29-h20bv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532139/original/file-20230615-29-h20bv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532139/original/file-20230615-29-h20bv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532139/original/file-20230615-29-h20bv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532139/original/file-20230615-29-h20bv5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Over 10 years, the estimated savings for each household switching from gas to electricity range up to $13,900 in Melbourne. It’s a flat $3,890 figure for Brisbane, rather than a range, because there’s no gas heating.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Households in Melbourne tend to use more gas than those in other mainland capitals, mainly because the winter is so cold. Our report found Melburnians who replace broken gas appliances with electric ones, or move into an all-electric home, could save up to A$13,900 over ten years. Households with rooftop solar will save even more. </p>
<p>It’s a similar story in most parts of Australia except the west, where gas is relatively cheap. This mainly reflects differences in the historical development of the gas markets between the west and east coasts.</p>
<p>Getting off gas could also be <a href="https://www1.racgp.org.au/ajgp/2022/december/health-risks-from-indoor-gas-appliances">good for your health</a>. Several studies link cooking with gas to <a href="https://www.nationalasthma.org.au/living-with-asthma/resources/patients-carers/factsheets/gas-stoves-and-asthma-in-children">childhood asthma</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/gas-cooking-is-associated-with-worsening-asthma-in-kids-but-proper-ventilation-helps-151591">Gas cooking is associated with worsening asthma in kids. But proper ventilation helps</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1660422437237043200"}"></div></p>
<h2>Households face a series of hurdles</h2>
<p>Renters make up nearly a third of all households, and they have little or no control over the appliances that are installed. As most electric appliances cost more to buy than gas ones – and the subsequent bill savings flow to tenants – landlords have little incentive to upgrade their properties from gas to all-electric. </p>
<p>Apartment living can increase the level of complexity. Multi-unit dwellings often bundle gas bills into body-corporate fees, limiting the occupants’ incentive to go all-electric. There can also be space constraints in these buildings. Centralised electric heat pumps, for example, take up more space than centralised gas water heaters.</p>
<p>Then there are households that simply can’t afford the upgrade. Induction stoves and heat pumps are more expensive than their gas equivalents, by up to a combined $2,000. This initial outlay will soon be recovered by cheaper energy bills, but that doesn’t help households that don’t have the cash up front. The <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/data/taking-the-pulse-of-the-nation-2022/2023/energy-poverty">12% of households that skipped meals</a> to pay their energy bills in the past year are the most likely to remain locked into high gas bills. </p>
<p>Some people also simply prefer cooking with gas. Some think induction cooktops will be no better than the poor-performing electric cooktops they may have used in the distant past. Others haven’t ever heard of a heat pump for hot water.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-pumps-can-cut-your-energy-costs-by-up-to-90-its-not-magic-just-a-smart-use-of-the-laws-of-physics-185711">Heat pumps can cut your energy costs by up to 90%. It’s not magic, just a smart use of the laws of physics</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Here’s how governments can help</h2>
<p>Governments, both state and federal, should lower the hurdles on the path to all-electric homes – to reduce people’s cost of living and to cut carbon emissions.</p>
<p>As a first step, state governments should ban new gas connections to homes. In 2021, more than 70,000 households joined the gas network. Trying to shift households off gas while allowing new connections is like pouring water into a bucket with a hole. </p>
<p>Then, governments should provide landlords with tax write-offs on new induction stoves and heat pumps for hot water, for a limited time. After that, they should require every rental property to be all-electric. Governments should pay to upgrade public housing to all-electric, where they are the landlords. And they should pay not-for-profits managing community housing to do the same.</p>
<p>The federal government should help all households to spread the cost of electric appliances over time. It should subsidise banks to offer low-interest loans for home electrification, via the Clean Energy Finance Corporation. </p>
<p>And governments should set out to change people’s preferences, from gas to electric. They should embark on a multi-decade communication campaign, not unlike the campaign to upgrade from analogue to digital television in the early 2000s. </p>
<p>A key challenge will be shifting people’s ideas about the best way to cook. There are precedents. In Gininderry, a new all-electric suburb of Canberra, one developer recruited chefs to run demonstrations on induction cooktops at the display village. The proportion of potential homebuyers <a href="https://ginninderry.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Ginninderry-2017-Householder-Attitudes-to-Residential-Renewable-Energy-Futures.pdf">willing to consider buying an all-electric home</a> rose from 67% to 88%. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/K9ytSh5TM9M?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Induction cooking with Chef David Wei at Ginninderry.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Green gas’ is no panacea: electricity is cheaper</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532117/original/file-20230615-23-n0wdqe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart comparing the cost of hydrogen to electricity over time, showing hydrogen is more expensive and will remain so for decades" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532117/original/file-20230615-23-n0wdqe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532117/original/file-20230615-23-n0wdqe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532117/original/file-20230615-23-n0wdqe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532117/original/file-20230615-23-n0wdqe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=572&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532117/original/file-20230615-23-n0wdqe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532117/original/file-20230615-23-n0wdqe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532117/original/file-20230615-23-n0wdqe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=719&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hydrogen is more expensive than electricity and will remain so for decades.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Grattan Institute</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The gas industry has another solution in mind: instead of switching from gas to electricity, it suggests using “green gas” – biomethane or “green” hydrogen. Biomethane is chemically identical to natural gas, but is derived from biological materials such as food waste, sewage or agricultural waste. Green hydrogen is made by using electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen.</p>
<p>But both options are <a href="https://theconversation.com/hydrogen-where-is-low-carbon-fuel-most-useful-for-decarbonisation-147696">too expensive and too far away</a>. Under the most generous of assumptions, green hydrogen will only become cost-competitive with electricity after 2045. And there is not enough biomethane commercially available to replace gas in households. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, more than three million Australian homes already run on electricity alone. </p>
<p>Getting the five million homes that use gas to the same point won’t be easy. But with good policy, it is doable. For households, and the climate, there is much to be gained.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kicking-the-gas-can-down-the-road-why-a-gas-price-cap-is-the-worst-way-to-protect-energy-consumers-204752">Kicking the gas can down the road: why a gas price cap is the worst way to protect energy consumers.</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207409/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Esther Suckling does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new report from the Grattan Institute shows most households can save thousands of dollars by getting off gas and switching to electric appliances.Esther Suckling, Research Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2059512023-06-07T12:25:18Z2023-06-07T12:25:18ZEnergy generators’ soaring revenues highlight deep problems in the way Britain prices its electricity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529316/original/file-20230531-23-28jc5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3840%2C2160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">All electricity generators in Britain saw their revenues increase last year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/british-pound-symbol-running-down-electricity-2210647521">sp3n/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Twenty-nine billion pounds is a lot of money. It’s how much we estimate the <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sustainable/sites/bartlett_sustainable/files/necc_working_paper_2_final_pdf_with_cover40.pdf">total annual revenue to British electricity generating stations</a> increased as a result of last year’s energy crisis – from £20.5 billion before COVID (in 2018 and 2019) to £49.5 billion in 2022. The indications are that these revenues increased by about twice as much as overall generation costs.</p>
<p>Getting at the numbers is not easy. Britain has a competitive market for “wholesale” electricity, the bulk electricity sold by major generating companies from fossil fuel (overwhelmingly gas), nuclear and renewable energy power stations.</p>
<p>The price is set in an auction between the electricity consumers (large industries or electricity suppliers that purchase electricity for their clients) and its generators. Consumers submit the demand they are expecting during the next day, and generators offer a block of electricity to meet this demand for a certain price. The price in this “day-ahead” market reflects the cost of the highest-priced block needed to match demand.</p>
<p>Renewables and nuclear plants are relatively cheap to operate. But fossil fuels, although more expensive, are still required to meet demand nearly all the time. This means that gas largely sets the day-ahead price, with a margin. In 2021, the electricity price followed gas prices <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sustainable/sites/bartlett_sustainable/files/the_role_of_natural_gas_in_electricity_prices_in_europe_updated_may_2023.pdf">98% of the time in Britain</a>, despite gas generating only 40% of the country’s electricity. </p>
<p>But this is just the beginning of the pricing complexities. In practice, much gas and electricity is traded through forward contracts. Your electricity suppliers need to know they can buy the electricity their customers will demand, so they “buy forward” from generators on contracts ranging from months to more than a year ahead – usually at prices reflecting conditions at the time of contracting. </p>
<p>On purely day-ahead prices, the total revenue in 2022 would have soared by almost £40 billion. Our best estimate of forward-contract structures brings this down to the £29 billion indicated for last year.</p>
<p>However, this likely means some of the huge day-ahead prices in 2022 have been shifted forward into this year, whatever happens to gas generation costs (in reality, gas prices fell slightly during the first half of 2023). </p>
<p>Furthermore, gas-powered electricity generators buy their gas in advance, to be sure they have the fuel to generate – so a lot of their generation this year could reflect last year’s gas prices.</p>
<p>Our first conclusion: whatever happens to gas prices, don’t expect electricity prices to drop fast.</p>
<h2>Soaring revenues</h2>
<p>A key finding from our research is how revenue changed for different generators, with the growth for renewables of particular note. We estimate their revenue doubled from £7.7 billion pre-COVID to £15.5 billion in 2022 – yet there is no reason to think their costs increased. </p>
<p>Nuclear benefited too – but proportionately less than renewables. Nuclear generators sell more electricity on a year-ahead basis, given its predictable cost and output levels.</p>
<p><strong>How revenues changed for different electricity generators (£ billion/year):</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530333/original/file-20230606-25-nycs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A table showing how revenues changed for different electricity generators." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530333/original/file-20230606-25-nycs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530333/original/file-20230606-25-nycs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530333/original/file-20230606-25-nycs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530333/original/file-20230606-25-nycs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530333/original/file-20230606-25-nycs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530333/original/file-20230606-25-nycs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530333/original/file-20230606-25-nycs2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sustainable/sites/bartlett_sustainable/files/necc_working_paper_2_final_pdf_with_cover40.pdf">Maximov et al. (2023)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Perhaps the biggest surprise regards gas generation. Since these companies’ costs shot up following the start of the Ukraine war, it seems no surprise that their prices did too. We estimate their total annual revenue rose by about £13 billion, roughly trebling from the pre-COVID average of £6.3 billion. But the evidence suggests that this increase was, in fact, much bigger than the increase in their costs.</p>
<p>An industry metric called the “spark spread” historically gave gas generators an <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/search?keyword=spark%20spread">operating margin of about £5</a> for each megawatt hour (MWh) of electricity generated. That quadrupled in 2021 and doubled again in 2022, to an average of over £40 per MWh. This correlates with our best estimate that, while gas generators paid more for gas, their bill rose by a lot less than the £13 billion increase in their total revenue. </p>
<h2>So what happened?</h2>
<p>Electricity is supposed to be a competitive market, with competition holding down prices. But in reality, there is little competition between gas and other generating sources in Britain, since these other sources can’t increase their output or rapidly build more capacity when gas generators put their prices up. </p>
<p>Until at least 2020, a major factor constraining higher prices in the wholesale market was imports through interconnectors from mainland Europe. Yet, factors including post-Brexit trade frictions and <a href="https://timera-energy.com/europes-power-crisis-overtaking-gas-crisis/">low hydro (Norway) and nuclear (France) generation</a> have impeded the <a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sustainable/sites/bartlett_sustainable/files/the_role_of_natural_gas_in_electricity_prices_in_europe_updated_may_2023.pdf">inflows of competitive electricity</a> from continental Europe over the past few years. </p>
<p>Exacerbated further by the gas crisis in Europe, this meant electricity generators in Britain were able to raise prices further above costs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial shot of the Solbergfoss hydroelectric power station." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529312/original/file-20230531-27-6vo0tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529312/original/file-20230531-27-6vo0tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529312/original/file-20230531-27-6vo0tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529312/original/file-20230531-27-6vo0tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529312/original/file-20230531-27-6vo0tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529312/original/file-20230531-27-6vo0tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/529312/original/file-20230531-27-6vo0tc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solbergfoss hydroelectric power station, Norway.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/askim-indre-kommune-norway-may-23-2307235955">Benjamin Olsen/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the final quarter of 2022, the generators also knew that raising their prices even higher would not ultimately matter to customers – because in October last year, the UK government committed to subsidising energy bills down to £2,500 per household through its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-bills-support/energy-bills-support-factsheet-8-september-2022">Energy Price Guarantee</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, gas generators are exempt from paying the new <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electricity-generator-levy/electricity-generator-levy-on-exceptional-electricity-generation-receipts">Electricity Generation Levy</a> – which imposes a tax of 45% on the revenues of electricity generators for the fraction of electricity they sell at above £75 per MWh each year. This levy is applied only to those generators who were assumed to be benefiting from the exceptional wholesale prices while their costs hadn’t increased.</p>
<h2>Implications for the future</h2>
<p>The real paradox is that all this happened just as non-fossil sources, with stable costs, started to account for <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1147249/Energy_Trends_March_2023.pdf">more than half</a> of Britain’s electricity (56% if we include nuclear). </p>
<p>As renewables expand further, we will start to see more periods when renewables and nuclear can meet electricity demand, so that gas no longer sets the day-ahead price and the wholesale price collapses. By 2030, non-fossil generation is expected to account for more than 75% of total electricity generation in both the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-and-emissions-projections-net-zero-strategy-baseline-partial-interim-update-december-2021">UK</a> and the <a href="https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/96c2ca82-e85e-11eb-93a8-01aa75ed71a1/language-en/format-PDF/source-219903975">EU</a>. However, most of the time, the day-ahead price will still be set by the sliver of fossil fuels that are still required. </p>
<p>Given the experience of the past year, and what we will see this year in terms of high wholesale electricity prices, this doesn’t really make sense. For how long can the declining fossil fuel tail continue to wag the dog of Britain’s renewables-based electricity system?</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205951/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Grubb has received funding from the Aldersgate Group for work on electricity markets, and BEIS/DESNZ for work on the economics of energy transition </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Serguey Maximov Gajardo receives funding from the Aldersgate Group for work on electricity markets.</span></em></p>British electricity generators saw their revenues increase by £29 billion in 2022 – here’s why that happened.Michael Grubb, Professor of Energy and Climate Change, UCLSerguey Maximov Gajardo, Research Fellow at the Institute for Sustainable Resources, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2045952023-05-19T14:52:53Z2023-05-19T14:52:53ZHow Russia might rethink its alliance with China after Putin<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527217/original/file-20230519-25-wgefkd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Kremlin.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For more than three decades, Moscow and Beijing have been incrementally strengthening their partnership. The growing number of potentially conflicting interests, for instance over investment and exploration <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/could-the-arctic-be-a-wedge-between-russia-and-china/">in the Arctic</a>, have not slowed down cooperation. </p>
<p>Despite Russia becoming China’s “<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/china-new-vassal-vladimir-putin/">junior partner</a>” over the last decade as Beijing’s economic and global strength has grown, their relationship remains strong. Pushing back against US power is a continual driver for both nations.</p>
<p>But if Russian president Vladimir Putin was no longer in a leadership role would the relationship unravel? A change of leadership in Moscow is likely to complicate Russian-Chinese cooperation, but not due to ideological shifts in Russian politics or geopolitical realignments on the global scene. </p>
<p>The prospects for Russia’s democratisation or improvement in relations with the west are the bleakest in the last two decades. It is Russian domestic politics that is most likely to play a significant role in affecting the direction of the future relationship of the two countries.</p>
<p>Any change in the Kremlin is likely to upset a delicate balance in Russia’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/04/putin-security-elite-siloviki-russia">political and economic ecosystem</a> and would lead to a new round of internal struggles for influence and resources. </p>
<p>While deepening cooperation with Beijing, Moscow has signed a number of agreements, which were sub-optimal from the perspective of the Russian state but which strengthened the positions of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/21/business/global/rosneft-to-send-60-billion-worth-of-oil-to-china.html">Putin’s allies and associates</a>. </p>
<p>In return, they created a powerful pro-Chinese lobby in the corridors of the Kremlin. Without Putin’s patronage, these business empires could be targeted by those surrounding a new leader, if they wanted to move into having more diverse business partners abroad.</p>
<p>What’s more, those Russians who have supported ever closer cooperation with China cannot be taken for granted. If China decided to employ <a href="https://www.nbr.org/publication/understanding-chinese-wolf-warrior-diplomacy/">wolf-warrior diplomacy</a> (a confrontational technique that pushes back against criticism of the Beijing government) in Russia it could alienate those who were previously allies. </p>
<p><a href="https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/pik-minoval/">Some Russian scholars</a> warned of this even before the war in Ukraine. An escalation of Chinese cyber, industrial and traditional espionage practices – a temptation that may be irresistible for a stronger partner – would push Russian intelligence services to crack down on Chinese technology with possible surveillance capabilities. </p>
<p>A new leader would have an opportunity to reassess the degree of Russia’s dependence on China and the broader context of Russian policy in Asia. It is worth remembering that already in the mid-2000s, Russia was trying to make a “<a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-69790-1">turn to the east</a>”, not a turn to China. </p>
<p>Russia’s Asian policy was to be balanced and diversified, focused on cooperation with China, Japan, Korean states and south-east Asian countries. Oil and gas pipelines were meant to serve Asian customers, not just China.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/putin-under-pressure-the-military-melodrama-between-the-wagner-group-and-russias-armed-forces-205475">Putin under pressure: the military melodrama between the Wagner group and Russia’s armed forces</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Meanwhile, China <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1818919-viewpoint-china-to-maintain-grip-on-espo-blend-crude">has been buying</a> the lion’s share of the oil sent to Russia’s Asian terminal in Kozmino. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/does-china-need-more-russian-gas-via-power-of-siberia-2-pipeline-2023-03-22/#:%7E:text=WHAT%20IS%20THE%20POWER%2DOF,and%20a%20growing%20gas%20consumer.">Power of Siberia gas pipeline</a> and its potential second branch go only to China and thus make it impossible for Russia to start exporting gas directly to other customers such as South Korea. </p>
<p>The participation of Russian aircraft and ships in <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/china-russia-drill-12012022033014.html">joint patrols around Japan</a> is beneficial to Beijing, but it limits Moscow’s room for manoeuvre to forge other Asian allies and makes it dependent on Chinese policy.</p>
<h2>Domestic opinion</h2>
<p>Domestic politics in Russia has created <a href="https://theasanforum.org/russias-policy-towards-china-key-players-and-the-decision-making-process/">favourable conditions</a> for close cooperation with China. But regime survival considerations affect the Kremlin’s assessment of <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/how-a-rising-china-has-remade-global-politics/">China’s growing power</a> and lead it to neglect the growing asymmetry in relations with Beijing. </p>
<p>The Russian elite does not see China as a threat to the security and survival of the regime. Therefore, it is easier for Moscow to interpret China’s rise to a superpower as friendly and to accept its growing global role, even if it makes Russia a less significant partner.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527223/original/file-20230519-19-dkrcqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graphic showing exports from Russia to China" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527223/original/file-20230519-19-dkrcqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527223/original/file-20230519-19-dkrcqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527223/original/file-20230519-19-dkrcqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527223/original/file-20230519-19-dkrcqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527223/original/file-20230519-19-dkrcqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527223/original/file-20230519-19-dkrcqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527223/original/file-20230519-19-dkrcqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=703&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/rus/partner/chn">OEC</a></span>
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<p>The financial and political benefits gained from the partnership by individual members of the Russian elite have been another <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-97012-3_4">driver</a> for the relationship with Beijing. Not everyone is as enthusiastic about cooperation as <a href="https://www.rosneft.com/press/news/item/212763/">Igor Sechin</a>, head of state-owned oil firm Rosneft, for whom China is the most important partner. </p>
<p>However, even those companies who compete with their Chinese counterparts, such as Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom, still benefit from having a presence on the Chinese market.</p>
<p>Without a doubt, a new Russian leader’s hands would be tied to a large extent. Oil and gas pipelines leading to China connect Russian companies with this market and cannot be replaced easily. The selective support offered by China has consolidated the pro-Beijing orientation of the key players in Russia. </p>
<p>Even before the war in Ukraine, Beijing helped some companies <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-china-yamal-idUKL2N17V2MI">circumvent the barriers</a> from western sanctions by offering prepayments for oil deliveries or providing loans. A large part of the Russian elite sees China as the only partner against the west. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, any new leader will have an opportunity to re-evaluate the costs and benefits of close ties with Beijing, and it will be in their interest to do so, if it can strengthen its hand.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204595/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcin Kaczmarski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s partnership with Russia has been unbalanced in recent years, as Beijing grew more powerful.Marcin Kaczmarski, Lecturer in Security Studies, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2033962023-05-08T20:10:41Z2023-05-08T20:10:41ZThe end of offshore oil and gas exploration in NZ was hard won – but it remains politically fragile<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524237/original/file-20230503-14-ebr7r6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C0%2C5716%2C3819&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recent news that the New Zealand government has <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/486886/greymouth-gas-granted-offshore-oil-and-gas-exploration-permit">granted an offshore oil and gas exploration permit</a> it had earlier declined demonstrates how fragile the current ban on such activity still is.</p>
<p>The permit was eventually granted because the application was lodged just before the government’s 2018 offshore exploration ban was in place. The High Court ruled it should therefore have been considered under the previous system.</p>
<p>It’s simply the latest twist in a long contest of ideas and ideologies. Between 2008 and 2017, Aotearoa New Zealand’s offshore environment was opened up for further oil and gas exploration on the promise of economic growth and energy independence. </p>
<p>The dominant narrative from the government and from industry was, at its core, that economic growth is essential, that oil was an untapped resource, and it would be irresponsible not to make use of it to generate capital and contribute to Aotearoa New Zealand’s economic development. During these nine years, the government sought to “secure” this resource.</p>
<p>The government took action to provide certainty and therefore security for overseas investors by cultivating ties with the fossil fuel industry. For example, when protest sought to disrupt oil and gas exploration activities, the government introduced legislation to curtail at-sea protest and offered only limited Māori and community engagement about commercial extraction activities in ocean spaces. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524225/original/file-20230503-15-ti0zsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524225/original/file-20230503-15-ti0zsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524225/original/file-20230503-15-ti0zsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524225/original/file-20230503-15-ti0zsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524225/original/file-20230503-15-ti0zsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=911&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524225/original/file-20230503-15-ti0zsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524225/original/file-20230503-15-ti0zsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524225/original/file-20230503-15-ti0zsu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1145&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The story of the anti-deep sea oil campaign begins with increased efforts to entice transnational petroleum corporations to explore the country’s extensive Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Aotearoa New Zealand was among the first countries to embrace wholesale neoliberal reforms in the 1980s, and this approach to governance, economic, social and environmental policy and practice has become embedded over subsequent decades. </p>
<p>In 2008, John Key’s National-led government established what was described as a “Business Growth Agenda”, which included the sale of state assets, and the development of extractive industries. The orientation toward extractive industries was demonstrated through media that referred to an increasing need to catch up with Australia, and government ministers commenting on the need to make the “most use of the wealth hidden in our hills, under the ground and in our oceans”.</p>
<h2>Deep Water Horizon and the Rena</h2>
<p>The government’s agenda for the oil and gas sector described in its Business Growth Agenda didn’t go unnoticed by climate justice and environmental activists, nor iwi (tribal) groups, many of whom were already active against coal mining.</p>
<p>In Aotearoa New Zealand, as the government sought to deliver on its Business Growth Agenda, two further events sensitised the public to the risks of engaging in extractive industry in ocean environments and the power of corporates to elude their responsibilities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-bay-of-plenty-oil-spill-loading-the-dice-against-disaster-3860">The Bay of Plenty oil spill: loading the dice against disaster</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>First, the <a href="https://nzhistory.govt.nz/culture/shipping-containers/rena-disaster">Rena disaster</a> occurred in Tauranga, off the east coast of the North Island. The Rena was a container ship that ran aground on the Ōtāiti/Astrolabe reef in October 2011 while on its way into Tauranga Harbour. The ship broke up over a period of months, leaving fuel and debris from containers littered across the ocean and local beaches. </p>
<p>The second event, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, sensitised the public to the risks of offshore oil extraction. This disaster was a direct precursor to the emergence of the Oil Free campaign across Aotearoa New Zealand. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524229/original/file-20230503-1294-cfubnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524229/original/file-20230503-1294-cfubnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524229/original/file-20230503-1294-cfubnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524229/original/file-20230503-1294-cfubnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524229/original/file-20230503-1294-cfubnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524229/original/file-20230503-1294-cfubnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524229/original/file-20230503-1294-cfubnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Waiho Papa Moana hikoi protesting against deep sea drilling at the New Zealand Petroleum Summit in 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phil Walter/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Petrobras and the Raukūmara Basin</h2>
<p>On the east coast of the North Island of Aotearoa New Zealand, the iwi of Te Whānau-ā-Apanui, with support from Greenpeace New Zealand, disrupted a large Brazilian petroleum company, Petrobras, from seismic surveying of the Raukūmara Basin in the EEZ. </p>
<p>The EEZ is an area over which a nation-state has partial sovereignty, including to extract resources, demarcated under the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea. It extends to approximately 200 nautical miles from the coastline. Petrobras had secured a five-year permit to explore for oil and gas under block offers released in 2010.</p>
<p>Te Whānau-ā-Apanui had requested that no exploration for oil and gas be undertaken in their area. Nevertheless, Petrobras informed Te Whānau-ā-Apanui that they would begin their seismic survey work in early 2011 and began work in April using the large survey vessel, the Orient Explorer. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-new-zealand-should-not-explore-for-more-natural-gas-reserves-91544">Why New Zealand should not explore for more natural gas reserves</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Opposition to Petrobras began quickly both onshore and offshore, demanding “no drill, no spill”. A flotilla of five vessels sailed out to the seismic survey vessel to attempt to halt its work over a period of seven weeks, where actions included sailing in front of the survey vessel. </p>
<p>Following these events, a number of meetings were reportedly held between government agencies and industry representatives concerned by the lack of a regulatory regime in the EEZ and the risk of protesters disrupting lawful permitted activities. Petrobras warned the government that they would withdraw if community action continued.</p>
<p>Subsequently, a major piece of legislation was enacted as an amendment to the Crown Minerals Act 1991. This amendment criminalised protest at sea near a vessel engaged in oil and gas exploration or drilling. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1481774413515313158"}"></div></p>
<h2>The ‘Andarko amendment’</h2>
<p>The amendment to the Crown Minerals Act was dubbed the “Anadarko amendment” after the Texan oil corporation that was active in Aotearoa New Zealand at the time. It was also a silent partner to the Deep Water Horizon rig responsible for the massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico.</p>
<p>The amendment contravened international human rights law, and went against a long tradition of protest at sea in Aotearoa New Zealand, by banning activists from coming within 500 metres of an oil and gas vessel. The Minister for Energy and Resources at the time said the protesters shouldn’t be trying to stop other people going about their lawful business.</p>
<p>While the Anadarko Amendment sought to provide assurances and security to fossil fuel companies, activists changed the financial equation by disrupting exploration, blockading banks who refused to divest from oil and gas, and protesting annual fossil fuel conferences. </p>
<p>Activists sought to secure a future that was not dependent on fossil fuels, and that both demanded and demonstrated a sense of responsibility and care for the impacts of continuing business as usual. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524246/original/file-20230504-14-cyqb7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524246/original/file-20230504-14-cyqb7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524246/original/file-20230504-14-cyqb7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524246/original/file-20230504-14-cyqb7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524246/original/file-20230504-14-cyqb7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524246/original/file-20230504-14-cyqb7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524246/original/file-20230504-14-cyqb7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">National Party leader Christopher Luxon has said his party will repeal the offshore oil and gas exploration ban if elected in 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kerry Marshall/Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Change and uncertainty</h2>
<p>In 2018, a newly elected government enacted legislation that banned all new oil and gas exploration permits in Aotearoa’s EEZ, with the exception of an area of active production off the west coast of the North Island in Taranaki. </p>
<p>At the time, media debate was polemical, either decrying the lost revenue and the impact it would have on the economy, or arguing it didn’t go far enough because it did not apply to existing permits.</p>
<p>At the beginning of 2021, the last existing exploration permit outside Taranaki was surrendered, with companies claiming a combination of the pandemic and pricing uncertainties as the primary reasons for withdrawal. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-fight-the-climate-crisis-we-need-to-stop-expanding-offshore-drilling-for-oil-and-gas-194325">To fight the climate crisis, we need to stop expanding offshore drilling for oil and gas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>While we don’t suggest that these actions, or those of the current government in relation to climate change, are anywhere near enough, the Oil Free campaign successfully disrupted efforts to explore and extract from the “blue frontier” of Aotearoa New Zealand’s EEZ. </p>
<p>The campaign made it challenging for fossil fuel companies to do business here, and contested the government’s narratives about the need for exploration and production. Campaigners also narrated what a hopeful, climate-just world might look like. </p>
<p>But such a “win” could be precarious, with the opposition National Party claiming it will repeal the ban on new oil and gas exploration if elected in 2023. Indeed, the court case from earlier this year that revived an exploration permit demonstrates how messy and precarious stopping oil will be. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>This is an edited extract from</em> <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/stopping-oil-paperback-softback">Stopping Oil: Climate Justice and Hope</a> <em>by Sophie Bond, Amanda Thomas and Gradon Diprose (Melbourne University Press).</em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203396/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Thomas has recevied funding from Deep South National Science challenge in the past to research community responses to climate change. She has also been involved with climate justice community groups. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gradon Diprose has received funding from Deep South National Science Challenge to research adaptation to climate change in Aotearoa New Zealand. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Bond has received funding from the Deep South National Science Challenge for research on climate change adaptation, community engagement and local governance. She has also been involved with climate justice groups and research on community responses to climate change</span></em></p>Over a decade of protest led to the banning of fuel exploration in New Zealand waters. As this extract from a new book explains, that ‘win’ is still precarious and may depend on the election result.Amanda Thomas, Lecturer in Environmental Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonGradon Diprose, Senior Researcher, Environmental Social Science, Manaaki Whenua - Landcare ResearchSophie Bond, Associate Professor in Geography, University of OtagoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2051972023-05-08T09:38:42Z2023-05-08T09:38:42ZWhat Australia’s new gas tax will mean for new projects, the economy and the climate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524822/original/file-20230508-52143-wp8y5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C18%2C3042%2C2018&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos.aap.com.au/search/Australian%20LNG%20Tanker%20Northwest%20Sandpiper">AP/Koji Sasahara</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Treasurer Jim Chalmers has <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/changes-petroleum-resource-rent-tax">announced</a> higher taxes on gas industry profits, which he says will give Australians a “fairer return” on their natural resources. </p>
<p>On Sunday Chalmers flagged changes to the petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) – a tax on the profits from oil and gas exports – that he says will mean the offshore LNG industry “pays more tax, sooner”.</p>
<p>Many profitable LNG projects are not paying tax under the current regime. Indeed, it has been predicted that most LNG projects will <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/gas-tax-leaks-billions-as-energy-prices-soar-20220607-p5aro5">never pay tax</a>. </p>
<p>Changes to the tax are long overdue. As an economic “rent tax”, the mechanism seeks to capture revenue from resource extraction minus the costs of supply. Good resource tax design is a social investment that allows profits to be subject to taxes without those taxes operating as a disincentive on investment. Bad resource tax design works against this because it means those resource profits are immune from tax.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-already-has-a-uk-style-windfall-profits-tax-on-gas-but-well-give-away-tens-of-billions-of-dollars-unless-we-fix-it-soon-184938">Australia already has a UK-style windfall profits tax on gas – but we'll give away tens of billions of dollars unless we fix it soon</a>
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<h2>Dusting off review recommendations</h2>
<p>The changes come in response to recommendations from two reviews: the Callaghan <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/review-of-the-petroleum-resource-rent-tax/final-report">Petroleum Resource Rent Tax review</a> released in 2017 by then-treasurer Scott Morrison; and a subsequent <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/review-gas-transfer-pricing-arrangements">Treasury review</a> released on Sunday. </p>
<p><a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/R2016-001_PRRT_final_report.pdf">The Callaghan report</a> recommended changes to the tax only be applied to new projects, to maintain the stability of the sector. </p>
<p>It said the tax was more effective for oil rather than gas projects because, under the existing scheme, profits are taxed after deducting earlier losses. </p>
<p>Currently, an entity’s liability is levied at 40% of the taxable profit made from its interest in the project. This 40% is levied on offshore oil and gas projects once they start making profits. </p>
<p>The level of deductions that oil and gas projects can carry forward is known as the uplift rate. Australia applies two uplift rates: the long-term bond rate plus 5% (for general losses), and the long-term bond rate plus 15% (for exploration losses). </p>
<p>The long-term bond rate can grow over time, so it effectively doubles every four years. This has meant relatively moderate exploration deductions can accumulate into significant amounts over time. This is not as much of an issue for oil projects because they start making profits relatively quickly. Gas projects accumulate deductions because they take much longer to make a return. </p>
<p>The Callaghan report found if a direct “netback” method was implemented (that is, profit minus extraction/liquefaction costs), an additional A$89 billion could be raised between 2023 and 2050 including an extra $68 billion between 2027 and 2039 at the higher prices. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The LNG (liquefied natural gas) ship, Attalos, arrives at the Isle of Grain terminal, east of London, after travelling from Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524869/original/file-20230508-55339-1poa47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524869/original/file-20230508-55339-1poa47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524869/original/file-20230508-55339-1poa47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524869/original/file-20230508-55339-1poa47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524869/original/file-20230508-55339-1poa47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524869/original/file-20230508-55339-1poa47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524869/original/file-20230508-55339-1poa47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Australia is a major exporter of LNG (liquefied natural gas)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos.aap.com.au/search/">Gareth Fuller/AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Changes to the petroleum resource rent tax began in April 2019 when the uplift rate was reduced. Subsequently, onshore gas projects were removed from the scope of the tax, meaning offshore companies could no longer use them as deductions. No further amendments were implemented until now.</p>
<p>On Sunday, Chalmers finally released a <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/p2023-388153">final Treasury report</a> of the tax scheme. </p>
<p>His government accepted eight of the 11 recommendations from that review and eight recommendations from the Callaghan Review (recommendations accepted but not implemented by the previous government).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-gas-trigger-wont-be-enough-to-stop-our-energy-crisis-escalating-we-need-a-domestic-reservation-policy-188057">The 'gas trigger' won't be enough to stop our energy crisis escalating. We need a domestic reservation policy</a>
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<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1655404020276826115"}"></div></p>
<h2>Modest, balanced or weak reform?</h2>
<p>Labor’s proposed changes are too modest and are only expected to net the government about $2.4 billion over the next four years. The proposed tax scheme will cap deductions to limit the proportion of PRRT assessable income that can be offset by deductions to 90%. It will also mean that producers will start paying petroleum resource rent tax immediately rather than in 2030 as is the current expectation. </p>
<h2>How have the reforms been received?</h2>
<p>Samantha McCulloch, chief executive of industry peak body the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, said the announcement provided greater investment certainty for industry. She <a href="https://www.appea.com.au/all_news/media-release-appea-statement-on-changes-to-the-petroleum-resource-rent-tax-prrt/">went on</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The changes aim to get the balance right between the undeniable need for a strong gas sector to support reliable electricity and domestic manufacturing for decades to come and the need for a more sustainable budget.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>She called on the government “to work constructively and cooperatively with the opposition”. </p>
<p>The alternative is negotiating with The Greens and the teals. The Greens want the government to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/07/federal-budget-labor-petroleum-resource-rent-tax-prrt-wage-community-services-jim-chalmers-katy-gallagher">eliminate the $284bn of accumulated credits</a> that allow gas companies to reduce their tax liability. </p>
<p>The teals want to further strengthen the tax. Independent Member for Goldstein Zoe Daniel says that while increasing the revenue take from the PRRT is a good start, “lowballing it is a wasted opportunity”. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>LNG exports are worth more than $90 billion per year, yet this step will yield only $600 million annually. These are Australian resources, and this is a weak step towards a fair return.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1655316538470330368"}"></div></p>
<p>There have been claims the tax hike may <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/politicsnow-labors-petroleum-tax-hike-threatens-new-gas-projects/live-coverage/ccf6fa2a0729383aa7e5444d737a2b80">threaten new gas projects</a>. </p>
<p>West Australian energy giant Woodside Energy is expected to be <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/tax-and-super/2-4b-gas-tax-hit-on-energy-giants-20230506-p5d695">hit the hardest</a>. Local liquified natural gas producer Santos and multinationals including Shell, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips may also be affected, media reports suggest.</p>
<h2>Real change is desperately needed</h2>
<p>Significant change to the petroleum resource rent tax is desperately needed to address budget repair and blowouts. </p>
<p>In the decade before the Gladstone LNG port opened, when Australia’s gas exports soared, company taxes and the resource tax paid by the industry were approximately 15% of revenue. Since then, it has averaged 6%, and in 2019-20 was just 3.3%. </p>
<p>In 2022, Australia exported a record 81.4 million metric tonnes of LNG, earning the industry $92.8 billion (when expected revenue was $44 billion). If all of these windfall benefits were taxed, the revenue could be used to completely rewire the nation and accelerate the shift to a clean energy future.</p>
<p>This has not happened and the weak reform proposals by Labor do little more than scratch the surface.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205197/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Changes to the petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) are long overdue, but Labor’s modest attempt at reform represents a missed opportunity.Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2047522023-05-02T03:51:46Z2023-05-02T03:51:46ZKicking the gas can down the road: why a gas price cap is the worst way to protect energy consumers.<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523697/original/file-20230502-20-frh9r0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C298%2C3489%2C1676&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos.aap.com.au/search/ATTALOS">Gareth Fuller/PA via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal government’s plan to extend the gas price cap is not surprising, given fundamental market issues remain.</p>
<p>For as long as the war in Ukraine continues, Australian gas will attract premium prices overseas. So the <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/gas-price-cap-take-effect">“temporary” $12 per gigajoule cap</a> on wholesale domestic prices – intended to protect local energy users – will no longer be lifted in December, but will stay for a <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/new-code-conduct-secure-more-gas-reasonable-prices-australians">further 18 months</a> at least. </p>
<p>This is just kicking the can down the road, rather than developing a coherent energy policy.</p>
<p>A price cap is the worst of all credible options to establish market or price stability. It creates perverse incentives to continue with inefficient industry and residential energy use practices. It also delays progress towards emissions reduction and transition to renewable energy.</p>
<p>The optimal regulation of natural gas markets has been well studied and applied internationally, and state and commonwealth governments would be well advised to learn from such expertise. The government should, at the very least, consult a range of experts and develop a variety of policy options.</p>
<p>These options should include a <a href="https://consult.industry.gov.au/options-for-a-prospective-national-gas-reservation-scheme-issues-paper">gas reservation policy</a> and a new tax on excess gas industry profits that would be shared among consumers. </p>
<p>In tandem, the government should also institute a first principles review of all energy market frameworks, as this issue (among others) shows the fundamental assumptions underpinning current energy market frameworks no longer hold. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/surging-energy-prices-are-really-going-to-hurt-what-can-the-government-actually-do-196206">Surging energy prices are really going to hurt. What can the government actually do?</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<h2>Introducing a code of conduct</h2>
<p>The extension of the gas price cap is just one part of the Albanese government’s proposed mandatory <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/gas-mandatory-code-of-conduct">code of conduct</a> (gas code).</p>
<p>It’s worth noting the <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/files-au-climate/climate-au/p/prj262e5460819aa61435e09/public_assets/Consultation%20Paper%20-%20Mandatory%20Code%20of%20Conduct%20for%20the%20East%20Coast%20Gas%20Market.pdf">consultation paper</a>, released on April 26 states the gas code “will ensure domestic prices are reasonable by establishing a price anchor through: </p>
<ul>
<li>a price cap, initially set at $12/GJ</li>
<li>conditional exemptions from the price cap for producers on the basis of satisfactory voluntary enforceable supply commitments or being a small producer who exclusively supplies the domestic market.</li>
</ul>
<p>So large gas producers can apply to exceed the price cap. That might explain the term "price anchor”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-the-governments-price-cap-is-overly-generous-to-gas-producers-but-it-was-necessary-196597">Yes, the government's price cap is overly generous to gas producers. But it was necessary</a>
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<hr>
<p>The draft code has already been subject to consultation with gas producers and big industrial users over recent months. Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen told the ABC this was about striking “<a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/interview-david-lipson-abc-radio-national-australia-am">the right balance</a>”. </p>
<p>Large gas producers are being asked to make submissions on the supply and price commitments they would be prepared to make in the context of the proposed exemption framework by May 8.</p>
<p>Submissions on the second and final round of consultation will close on May 12. </p>
<p>Wholesale electricity prices have come down since caps on coal and gas price caps were introduced. (The wholesale electricity price is heavily influenced by the gas price). </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1651739823227682821"}"></div></p>
<p>But the wholesale gas price for the first quarter of this year is still the <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2023/qed-q1-2023-report.pdf?la=en">highest Q1 price on record</a>. The average price across all Australian Energy Market Operator markets in March was $9.43/GJ, the lowest since January 2022 which was $8.81/GJ. The quarterly average price across all AEMO markets was $11.86/GJ, compared to $9.93/GJ in Q1 2022. </p>
<p>Retail prices for electricity and gas continue to increase. </p>
<h2>A fragile framework in need of repair</h2>
<p>The relatively minor reduction in gas supply, due to sanctions on Russia, exposed the delicate balance of supply and demand, and the fragility of the global fossil energy system. In the long term, the solution is clear: move to renewables that are not subject to short term supply-demand shocks, and are now cheaper than coal and gas.</p>
<p>The switch to renewables also has another significant benefit – decentralising the production of electricity from concentrated sources of fossil fuels. This can start to address some of the key sources of geopolitical instability related to oil and gas in the middle east, Russia and similar sources.</p>
<p>However, in the short term, the Australian government must curb the worst excesses of the unfettered free market in natural gas and retail electricity. We must give Australians short term relief by decoupling the Australian natural gas market from global markets for a limited period.</p>
<p>The price cap is a poor attempt to do this, but the only sure way is a domestic reservation policy. This would reserve a proportion of gas produced on the east coast for the domestic market.</p>
<p>Western Australia <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/wa-domestic-gas-policy">already has one</a>, which mandates 15% of the gas extracted in the state must stay there. That’s why WA gas prices are cheaper. Now the east coast of Australia needs a strong gas reservation policy. </p>
<h2>A double whammy</h2>
<p>Coupling domestic gas and electricity markets to the extremely volatile and constrained international market is not in the national interest.</p>
<p>It is a double whammy, because not only are power prices overinflated, the resulting profits are not taxed appropriately. </p>
<p>We must fix this, properly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204752/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Australian Research Council, ARENA, DFAT, and a range of Australian energy utilities and energy resources companies,</span></em></p>Capping the wholesale gas price is a poor attempt to decouple the domestic market from the volatile international market. The only sure way forward is a domestic reservation policy for the east coast.Ariel Liebman, Ariel Liebman Director, Monash Energy Institute and Professor of Sustainable Energy Systems, Faculty of Information Technology, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2019412023-03-23T19:06:14Z2023-03-23T19:06:14ZWant an easy $400 a year? Ditch the gas heater in your home for an electric split system<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517128/original/file-20230323-18-hhruoy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C0%2C5447%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Earlier this month, regulators <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-electricity-prices-going-up-again-and-will-it-ever-end-201869">flagged</a> power price rises in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Like many people, you’re probably wondering how you can minimise the financial pain.</p>
<p>Getting rid of gas and electrifying everything in your home can save you money. <a href="https://renew.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Report-Limiting-energy-bills-by-getting-off-gas.pdf">Modelling</a> by not-for-profit organisation Renew showed annual bills last year for a <a href="https://www.nathers.gov.au/owners-and-builders/home-energy-star-ratings">seven-star</a> all-electric home with solar power were between 69% (Western Sydney) and 83% (Hobart) cheaper than bills for a three-star home with gas appliances and no solar. </p>
<p>There are other reasons to kick the gas habit, too. As renewables form an ever-growing part of Australia’s energy mix, electrifying the home increasingly helps tackle climate change. What’s more, there are sound <a href="https://www.unsw.edu.au/news/2023/02/a-heated-debate--how-safe-are-gas-stoves--">health</a> reasons to get rid of gas appliances.</p>
<p>But where do you start? And how do you get the best bang for your buck? Here, I offer a few tips.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="hand points remote control to air conditioning unit" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517117/original/file-20230323-18-mdtovq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517117/original/file-20230323-18-mdtovq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517117/original/file-20230323-18-mdtovq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517117/original/file-20230323-18-mdtovq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517117/original/file-20230323-18-mdtovq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517117/original/file-20230323-18-mdtovq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517117/original/file-20230323-18-mdtovq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Getting rid of gas and electrifying everything in your home can save you money.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A quick guide to home energy use</h2>
<p>Australian home energy use can be separated into a few categories: </p>
<ul>
<li>space heating and cooling</li>
<li>water heating</li>
<li>cooking</li>
<li>vehicles </li>
<li>other appliances (many of which are largely already electric). </li>
</ul>
<p>Of the appliances that typically depend on gas, the <a href="https://www.rewiringaustralia.org/report/castles-and-cars-discussion-paper">largest component</a> (37%) is space heating, followed by hot water (24%) and cooking (6%). </p>
<p>This varies between states. Victoria, for example, is particularly dependent on gas. </p>
<p>But the breakdown above gives some insight into the largest contributors to energy costs in the average Australian home – particularly in the cooler southern regions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graph of residential energy consumption by fuel and jurisdiction across Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515715/original/file-20230316-22-sphr9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515715/original/file-20230316-22-sphr9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515715/original/file-20230316-22-sphr9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515715/original/file-20230316-22-sphr9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515715/original/file-20230316-22-sphr9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515715/original/file-20230316-22-sphr9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515715/original/file-20230316-22-sphr9m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Graph of residential energy consumption by fuel and jurisdiction across Australia 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Unlocking the pathway: Why electrification is the key to net zero buildings (December 2022) Australian Sustainable Built Environment Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While both gas and electricity costs are rising, as they are now in most states, all-electric homes can expect lower overall increases. <a href="https://renew.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Report-Limiting-energy-bills-by-getting-off-gas.pdf">Analysis</a> by Renew has shown ditching the old gas heater in favour of a split system/reverse cycle air-conditioner (without solar panels) can lead to average savings of A$546 each year in Canberra, $440 in Adelaide, $409 in Melbourne and $256 in Perth. </p>
<p>Heating a space with a reverse-cycle air conditioner is about four times more efficient than using natural gas. And when the electricity is generated by renewables, it can be done with zero greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>And what about heating water? Using the existing electricity grid, the cost of using an electric heat pump is around half that of using a natural gas water heater. </p>
<p>The costs fall even lower if a household shifts to solar panels subsidised or financed by government, backed by a home battery providing the energy. In this case, heating costs are around a third of using gas.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-electricity-prices-going-up-again-and-will-it-ever-end-201869">Why are electricity prices going up again, and will it ever end?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516215/original/file-20230319-18-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Worker performing heat pump maintenance, rooftop solar panels in the backround." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516215/original/file-20230319-18-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516215/original/file-20230319-18-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516215/original/file-20230319-18-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516215/original/file-20230319-18-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516215/original/file-20230319-18-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516215/original/file-20230319-18-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516215/original/file-20230319-18-dp7ipq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Using an electric heat pump is almost half the cost of using a natural gas water heater.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hvac-worker-performing-heat-pump-maintenance-2202142885">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>So what’s the payback?</h2>
<p>Buying new appliances costs money. So it’s important to examine the “payback” period - in other words, the length of time it takes for energy bill savings to equal the cost of the initial investment in a new appliance. </p>
<p>The payback period can vary depending on:</p>
<ul>
<li>cost and quality of the appliance</li>
<li>an appliance’s energy rating</li>
<li>size of the system</li>
<li>for space heating, whether a split system is replacing an existing ducted system or being added on externally.</li>
</ul>
<p>A <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/CC_MVSA0323-CC-Report-Gas-vs-Electricity_V4-Single.pdf">report</a> last year by the Climate Council calculated the approximate cost differences between higher and lower-end electric appliances. Lower-end hot water heat pumps, reverse-cycle air conditioner and induction stoves were priced around $7,818 all together, while higher-end appliances cost around $14,936 together.</p>
<p>Both scenarios included installation costs and $3,000 for electrical upgrades and other costs. </p>
<p>The payback period for low-priced appliances ranged from five years in Hobart and Canberra to 15 years in Perth and Sydney. Higher-priced appliances were in the order of eight to ten years for most cities and 12, 16 and 19 years for Melbourne, Perth and Sydney respectively.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-are-shivering-in-cold-and-mouldy-homes-in-a-country-that-pioneered-housing-comfort-research-how-did-that-happen-188809">People are shivering in cold and mouldy homes in a country that pioneered housing comfort research – how did that happen?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two pots on induction stovetop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517118/original/file-20230323-16-hs40da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517118/original/file-20230323-16-hs40da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517118/original/file-20230323-16-hs40da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517118/original/file-20230323-16-hs40da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517118/original/file-20230323-16-hs40da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517118/original/file-20230323-16-hs40da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517118/original/file-20230323-16-hs40da.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cost of electrifying the home partly depends on the cost of the appliances you choose.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rolled out at scale, household electrification is also a feasible way to reduce gas demand. It may be the only practical option available to decarbonise residential energy. </p>
<p>As research <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196890422013802#b0130">recently suggested</a>, so-called “green” hydrogen – made by using low-carbon electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen – is unlikely to emerge as a cheap replacement for gas boilers. And why look for a technological solution to a problem we already know how to solve?</p>
<p>Modelling by <a href="https://environmentvictoria.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Vic-Gas-Market-Demand-Side-Study-Final-Report-1.pdf">Environment Victoria</a> has shown installing heat pumps for heating and cooling would reduce statewide gas use by 48 petajoules a year, compared to the relatively minimal 0.5 petajoules saved by installing induction cooktops. </p>
<p>At the same scale – and using a similar technology – replacing gas hot water with heat pump hot water reduces household gas use by 10 petajoules each year. That’s an enormous saving of gas.</p>
<h2>The bigger picture for all-electric homes</h2>
<p>Existing homes can benefit from a combination of electrification, rooftop solar and batteries. They can also benefit from energy efficiency measures such as installing insulation, stopping draughts, closing off rooms and wearing the right clothing for the season.</p>
<p>We can work together to speed up the transition to renewable energy and reduce the demand for gas. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Rachel Goldlust is developing a “<a href="https://renew.org.au/our-news/gastoolkitsurvey/">Getting Off Gas Toolkit</a>” for Renew. It aims to provide clear, accessible and practical advice to households on replacing gas with renewables. The public is invited to complete a survey to help design the guide.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Goldlust works for Renew on their forthcoming Getting Off Gas Toolkit. Renew has received funding from Boundless Earth and the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation for this work.</span></em></p>Reducing gas use in our homes will help avoid energy price hikes. But where is the best place to start?Rachel Goldlust, Adjunct Research Fellow, School of Archaeology and History, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2021352023-03-21T04:05:13Z2023-03-21T04:05:13ZAustralia’s 116 new coal, oil and gas projects equate to 215 new coal power stations<p>Australia has 116 <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-major-projects-2022">new coal, oil and gas projects</a> in the pipeline. If they all proceed as planned, an extra 1.4 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases would be released into the atmosphere <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/116-new-fossil-fuel-projects-4-8b-tonnes-of-pollution-24x-safeguard-cuts/">annually by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>To put that in perspective, Australia’s total domestic greenhouse gas emissions in 2021–22 were <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-update-june-2022">490 million tonnes</a>. So annual emissions from these new projects would be the almost three times larger than the nation’s 2021-22 emissions. That’s the equivalent of starting up 215 new coal power stations, based on the average emissions of Australia’s current existing coal power stations.</p>
<p>The reason we can get away with this is the current global framework for emissions accounting only considers emissions generated onshore. And almost all coal, oil and gas from these new projects would be exported. But as we share the atmosphere with the rest of the people on the planet, the consequences will come back to bite us. </p>
<p>This week the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">Synthesis Report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described how fossil fuels are wreaking havoc on the planet. The science is clear: the IPCC says fossil fuel use is overwhelmingly driving global warming. </p>
<p>“The sooner emissions are reduced this decade, the greater our chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. Projected CO₂ emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure (power plants, mines, pipelines) without additional abatement exceed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C,” the IPCC says, let alone new coal, oil and gas projects. </p>
<p>In the words of <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2023-03-20/secretary-generals-video-message-for-press-conference-launch-the-synthesis-report-of-the-intergovernmental-panel-climate-change">UN Secretary General António Guterres</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Every country must be part of the solution. Demanding others move first only ensures humanity comes last.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Guterres added that “the Acceleration Agenda calls for a number of other actions”, specifically:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>No new coal and the phasing out of coal by 2030 in OECD countries and 2040 in
all other countries</p></li>
<li><p>Ending all international public and private funding of coal</p></li>
<li><p>Ensuring net zero electricity generation by 2035 for all developed countries and
2040 for the rest of the world</p></li>
<li><p>Ceasing all licensing or funding of new oil and gas – consistent with the findings of the International Energy Agency</p></li>
<li><p>Stopping any expansion of existing oil and gas reserves</p></li>
<li><p>Shifting subsidies from fossil fuels to a just energy transition</p></li>
<li><p>Establishing a global phase down of existing oil and gas production compatible
with the 2050 global net zero target. </p></li>
</ul>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/T9CeECpxtx8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Introducing the latest IPCC climate report.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-can-be-done-it-must-be-done-ipcc-delivers-definitive-report-on-climate-change-and-where-to-now-201763">'It can be done. It must be done': IPCC delivers definitive report on climate change, and where to now</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Hidden in plain sight</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/116-new-fossil-fuel-projects-4-8b-tonnes-of-pollution-24x-safeguard-cuts/">new research</a>, released today by the Australia Institute, reveals the pollution from Australia’s 116 new fossil fuel projects. These are listed among the federal government’s <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-major-projects-2022">major projects</a>. </p>
<p>Government analysts estimate each project’s start date and annual production figures. If they are correct, by 2030 the projects would produce a total of 1,466 million tonnes of coal and 15,400 petajoules of gas and oil.</p>
<p><iframe id="n6deR" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n6deR/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Then it’s fairly straightforward to calculate emissions. We simply multiplied these enormous new fossil fuel volumes by their “emissions factors”. When one tonne of coal is burned it releases approximately 2.65 tonnes of carbon dioxide or its equivalent (CO₂-e) into the atmosphere, and burning one terajoule (0.001 petejoules) of natural gas results in 51.5 tonnes CO₂-e. </p>
<p>Combined with the 164 million tonnes of emissions that the mining of these fuels would cause, the result is a planet-warming, but spine-chilling, total of 4.8 billion tonnes by 2030. </p>
<p>This amount is 24 times greater than the ambition of the federal government’s key emissions reduction policy, the so-called Safeguard Mechanism. That aims to reduce emissions by <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/next-steps-safeguard-australian-industry-and-regions-net-zero-global-economy">205 million tonnes</a> over the same period. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516578/original/file-20230321-24-mt36ac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Column graph comparing the tall stack of emissions from new fossil fuel projects to the small amount of emissions covered by the Safeguard Mechanism." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516578/original/file-20230321-24-mt36ac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516578/original/file-20230321-24-mt36ac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516578/original/file-20230321-24-mt36ac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516578/original/file-20230321-24-mt36ac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516578/original/file-20230321-24-mt36ac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516578/original/file-20230321-24-mt36ac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516578/original/file-20230321-24-mt36ac.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rather than embrace the task of decarbonising the Australian economy, the Albanese government has continued down the path laid out by the former Coalition government. It’s a path that relies more heavily on the use of carbon offsets than curtailing coal and gas. </p>
<p>Even though the rest of the world is committed to burning less fossil fuels, there are <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/116-new-fossil-fuel-projects-4-8b-tonnes-of-pollution-24x-safeguard-cuts/">more gas and coal mine project proposals</a> in Australia today than there were in 2021. </p>
<p>Note also that this list does not include several large, advanced projects actively supported by Australian governments, including Santos’s Barossa gas field, Shell’s Bowen Gas Project, Chevron’s Cleo Acme, and several vast new unconventional gas basins including the Beetaloo, Canning and Lake Eyre basins.</p>
<h2>3 reasons to change our ways</h2>
<p>Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen argues that Australians are not responsible for the emissions from our fossil fuel exports. That’s because the international accounting rules <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ThePathtoClimateNeutrality-Measure-TheBasics_May26.pdf">distinguish between</a> the emissions that occur within our borders (known as scope 1 and 2 emissions) and those that occur when other countries burn the coal and gas we sell them (known as scope 3 emissions). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516561/original/file-20230321-14-7j01sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Extinction Rebellion protesters are seen pushing an animatronic burning Koala puppet called Blinky through the streets of the CBD in Brisbane, Wednesday, March 15, 2023" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516561/original/file-20230321-14-7j01sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516561/original/file-20230321-14-7j01sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516561/original/file-20230321-14-7j01sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516561/original/file-20230321-14-7j01sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516561/original/file-20230321-14-7j01sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516561/original/file-20230321-14-7j01sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516561/original/file-20230321-14-7j01sm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">No matter where in the world Australian fossil fuels are burned, the emissions will harm our nation’s wildlife (including endangered koalas), people and properties.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos.aap.com.au/">DARREN ENGLAND/AAP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But if Bowen really wants to tackle climate change, there are three reasons both he and Australians should bear this responsibility:</p>
<p>First, there’s the moral argument. Australia didn’t ban whaling and asbestos mining because we wanted to stop Australians from eating whales or building hazardous homes. We stopped these activities because they were dangerous. Countries can and do shape the world they live in.</p>
<p>Second, even just the emissions in Australia from these 116 new fossil fuel projects (their methane leaks, fuel use and other relevant emissions in Australia) will pour 344 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere by 2030. That dwarfs the 205 million tonnes of emissions the entire Safeguard Mechanism is supposed to save over that same period.</p>
<p>And finally, leaving aside the risks of catastrophic climate change, which is admittedly a big ask, it is hard to overstate the risks to the Australian economy of continuing to focus our investment on the expansion of export industries that the rest of the world is committed to transitioning away from. If we aimed the $11 billion per year we spend on fossil fuel subsidies at decarbonising our economy, we would slash emissions in no time.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516318/original/file-20230320-26-bejszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516318/original/file-20230320-26-bejszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516318/original/file-20230320-26-bejszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516318/original/file-20230320-26-bejszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516318/original/file-20230320-26-bejszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516318/original/file-20230320-26-bejszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516318/original/file-20230320-26-bejszf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">IPCC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No new coal, oil and gas</h2>
<p>The Australian government continues to support unlimited growth in fossil fuel production and export, despite clear statements from the United Nations,
<a href="https://www.iea.org/news/pathway-to-critical-and-formidable-goal-of-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-is-narrow-but-brings-huge-benefits">International Energy Agency (IEA)</a> and IPCC that new fossil fuel projects are incompatible with global temperature goals.</p>
<p>No matter where in the world Australian fossil fuels are burned, they will turn up the heat. We can’t escape the simple truth that humanity must stop burning fossil fuels. It’s the only path to a liveable future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202135/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Denniss is the Australia Institute’s chief economist. He has also worked as a strategy adviser to the Australian Greens when Senator Bob Brown was leader.</span></em></p>Australia continues to support unlimited growth in fossil fuel production and export, flying in the face of the latest IPCC report. Mapped: 67 new coal, and 49 gas/oil projects.Richard Denniss, Adjunct Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2018692023-03-16T05:20:41Z2023-03-16T05:20:41ZWhy are electricity prices going up again, and will it ever end?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515672/original/file-20230316-20-jqtc08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C0%2C4716%2C3165&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Households and businesses are set for more hip-pocket pain after regulators on Wednesday released draft details of electricity price rises in four Australian states.</p>
<p>The Australian Energy Regulator <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/news-release/default-market-offer-2023%E2%80%9324-draft-determination">revealed</a> residential customers on standard plans should brace for price increases of up to 24% in the next financial year. The price rises apply to households in Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia.</p>
<p>The Victorian regulator <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/media-centre/victorian-default-offer-2023-24-draft-decision">also flagged</a> an electricity price hike of up to 30% in that state.</p>
<p>It’s another blow in an already difficult financial situation for many, as interest rates continue to rise and inflation soars. Consumers are justified in asking: why is this happening? And is there an end in sight?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Lit-up city skyline at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515693/original/file-20230316-28-allg6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515693/original/file-20230316-28-allg6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515693/original/file-20230316-28-allg6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515693/original/file-20230316-28-allg6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515693/original/file-20230316-28-allg6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515693/original/file-20230316-28-allg6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515693/original/file-20230316-28-allg6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Regulators on Wednesday signalled more electricity price rises.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jono Searle/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The basics, explained</h2>
<p>The regulator released a draft of what’s known as the “default market offer”. It’s basically the maximum amount energy retailers can charge customers on default energy plans. </p>
<p>So what’s a default energy plan? It’s the standard plan you’re on if you didn’t negotiate a special deal with your energy retailer, or if a deal you were on has expired.</p>
<p>According to the ABC, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-15/australian-energy-regulator-default-market-offer/102094290">around one million</a> electricity customers in the four states mentioned above are on default market offers.</p>
<p>Many consumers are on default plans because they don’t have the time or inclination to engage with their electricity retailer to negotiate a better deal. Others, quite understandably, find the whole process too confusing to navigate.</p>
<p>That’s why default market offers were introduced. Both the federal and Victorian policies were developed <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/inquiries-studies-and-reviews/electricity-and-gas-retail-markets-review-implementation-2018">after</a> <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/accc-releases-blueprint-to-reduce-electricity-prices">reviews</a> found competition in retail electricity markets was not leading to lower prices for households or small businesses.</p>
<p>The Victorian default offer began <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/inquiries-studies-and-reviews/electricity-and-gas-retail-markets-review-implementation-2018">in 2019</a>. The federal measure <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/retail-markets/guidelines-reviews/default-market-offer-prices-2023%E2%80%9324">was applied</a> <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/retail-markets/guidelines-reviews/default-market-offer-prices-2020%E2%80%9321">in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>The regulators release a draft determination ahead of a final decision, expected soon.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/first-look-at-the-new-settlement-rule-of-australias-electricity-market-has-it-worked-200647">First look at the new settlement rule of Australia's electricity market, has it worked?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>So why the price hike?</h2>
<p>Your electricity bill comprises several different charges. The biggest ones are:</p>
<p><strong>- wholesale energy costs:</strong> the price generators such as coal and gas plants charge your retailer for the electricity delivered to you</p>
<p><strong>- network costs:</strong> the price charged by companies that own the “poles and wires” – transmission lines, transformers, electricity poles and the like – needed to get the electricity to your home</p>
<p><strong>- retail costs:</strong> the total amount needed by an electricity retailer to operate – such as issuing bills, providing customer service, marketing themselves – as well as to make a reasonable profit. </p>
<p>Regulators calculate the default market offer by considering each of these price components.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="electricity pole and wires" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515694/original/file-20230316-22-rp5i7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515694/original/file-20230316-22-rp5i7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515694/original/file-20230316-22-rp5i7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515694/original/file-20230316-22-rp5i7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515694/original/file-20230316-22-rp5i7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515694/original/file-20230316-22-rp5i7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515694/original/file-20230316-22-rp5i7k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Network costs – or the ‘poles and wires’ charges – form part of your electricity bill.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The increased default market offers are mostly due to increases in wholesale prices. </p>
<p>Wholesale prices increased in recent months almost entirely as a result of sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. It led to a global shortage of natural gas. This was exacerbated when Russia <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/russia-to-cut-gas-exports-to-shell-orsted-over-rubles-dispute">withdrew gas</a> supplies from the European market. </p>
<p>Even though the energy shocks were happening half a world away from Australia, it affected domestic gas prices here. Why? Because most of Australia’s east coast gas is exported, which means its price is largely determined by the global price. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-bills-are-spiking-after-the-russian-invasion-we-should-have-doubled-down-on-renewables-years-ago-179336">Energy bills are spiking after the Russian invasion. We should have doubled-down on renewables years ago</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This could have been avoided if the federal government has a mechanism to keep some of that gas for the domestic market – in other words, if it had a so-called “gas reservation policy”. But the current and previous governments have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/it-s-ridiculous-architect-of-wa-policy-calls-for-national-gas-reservation-20220616-p5au8q.html">refused</a> to implement this.</p>
<p>The federal regulator said the planned retirement of AGL’s ageing Liddell coal-fired power station in the NSW Hunter Valley contributed to its decision. Liddell is one of the biggest coal-fired generators in the national electricity market, and the closure is likely to lead to a short-term tightening of supplies. </p>
<p>Another factor affecting the regulators’ decision relates to a strategy electricity retailers use to protect themselves against volatile wholesale prices in future. The strategy, known as hedge contracts, <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/energy-system/electricity/electricity-market/spot-and-contract-markets">fixes the wholesale price</a> retailers pay for electricity over a long period – up to several years.</p>
<p>The price set in hedge contracts struck over the past year or so was influenced by Australia’s <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8462.12492">domestic gas crisis</a> in 2022, which caused massive rises in wholesale electricity prices. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492032/original/file-20221027-18054-ubewpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="gas burner" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492032/original/file-20221027-18054-ubewpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492032/original/file-20221027-18054-ubewpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492032/original/file-20221027-18054-ubewpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492032/original/file-20221027-18054-ubewpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492032/original/file-20221027-18054-ubewpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492032/original/file-20221027-18054-ubewpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492032/original/file-20221027-18054-ubewpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">AUstralia’s gas prices are linked to global markets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What to expect down the track</h2>
<p>Australian Energy Regulator chair Clare Savage on Wednesday said the price increases <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-15/australian-energy-regulator-default-market-offer/102094290">could have been much higher</a>, if not for intervention by the Albanese government late last year to cap prices in Australia’s gas and coal markets.</p>
<p>Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen says those price caps have saved households between A$268 and $530.</p>
<p>The caps are likely to cause further falls in the default market offer in coming years. But the policy appears to be only an interim measure until the global supply shortage eases.</p>
<p>In the longer term, renewable energy offers a ray of hope.</p>
<p>The federal government has set a target of 82% renewable electricity by 2030. But of course, a few significant <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/understanding-whats-next-for-australias-main-electricity-market/">complementary measures</a> – such as more investment in transmission networks and energy storage – are needed.</p>
<p>This investment would support the transition to a zero-emissions electricity sector. Importantly, it would also insulate long-suffering consumers from volatile fossil fuel prices.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-your-energy-bills-ever-come-down-only-if-labor-gets-serious-with-the-gas-majors-193298">Will your energy bills ever come down? Only if Labor gets serious with the gas majors</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ariel Liebman has provided occasional advice to, and has received funding from, companies across the energy sector. He currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>Households and businesses are set for more hip-pocket pain after regulators flagged hefty electricity price rises in four Australian states.Ariel Liebman, Ariel Liebman Director, Monash Energy Institute and Professor of Sustainable Energy Systems, Faculty of Information Technology, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1885982023-03-01T19:07:12Z2023-03-01T19:07:12ZOil and gas companies are seen as climate villains. Truth is, we’ll need their expertise to make green hydrogen a reality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510233/original/file-20230215-20-3e2r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4455%2C2245&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Think about oil and gas companies and climate change and chances are you’ll think dark thoughts. It’s true Exxon Mobil had remarkably <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-climate-change-global-warming-research">detailed knowledge</a> of global warming in the 1970s. Some seeded doubt by funding climate denier organisations and <a href="https://ncse.ngo/files/pub/evolution/Excerpt--merchants.pdf">scientists</a> and invented <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/oil-majors-not-walking-the-talk-on-climate-action-study-confirms/#:%7E:text=Major%20emitters,has%20been%20emitted%20since%201965.">greenwashing</a>. The current energy crisis has handed them windfall profits. In fact, BP hit profits of A$40 billion last year, while scaling back its green ambitions. </p>
<p>But these companies are not just going to disappear. Even after we stop burning oil in engines, we will need oil and gas as raw materials for plastics, glues, solvents, industrial chemicals and fertilisers. Eventually, we’ll find greener alternatives. But that will take decades. </p>
<p>Are they the enemy? They’ve certainly done a lot to slow down the shift to clean energy. But this will – and is – changing. Inside some of these companies, people know change will have to come. The companies which embrace their role as broader energy and chemical companies will make the transition first. </p>
<p>We’ll also need their expertise and ability to handle uncertainty, risk and large projects to make green hydrogen and green chemicals a reality.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1625193554837483521"}"></div></p>
<h2>Oil and gas over coal?</h2>
<p>If you’ve been following climate change discussion, you’ll have noticed plans to <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/end-of-coal-in-sight-at-cop26">phase out coal</a> crop up a lot more often than plans to phase out oil and gas. </p>
<p>That’s because – for now – we’re much more reliant on these hydrocarbons. Firmed solar and wind can now take up the slack as ageing coal plants retire. But we’re still a way off being able to avoid burning oil or gas for transport or in industrial processes. </p>
<p>That means these companies will be with us for decades yet. But over time, they will think of themselves less as fossil fuel extractors and more as energy and chemical conglomerates, where oil and gas is a smaller part of what they do. </p>
<p>You’re right to be sceptical. But there are legitimate signs of change. </p>
<p>Shell <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/011923-interview-big-oil-bets-big-on-green-hydrogen-as-shell-to-operate-oman-project">just bought</a> into a green hydrogen megaproject in Oman, for instance, where it will be the lead operator. Late last year, BP bought a <a href="https://www.bp.com/en_au/australia/home/media/press-releases/bp-backs-australias-energy-future.html">controlling stake</a> in Australia’s largest renewable project, the Asian Renewable Energy Hub. If built in its entirety, this project would generate the equivalent of a third of Australia’s 2020 electricity production. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510237/original/file-20230215-26-c5o967.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pilbara mining" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510237/original/file-20230215-26-c5o967.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510237/original/file-20230215-26-c5o967.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510237/original/file-20230215-26-c5o967.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510237/original/file-20230215-26-c5o967.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510237/original/file-20230215-26-c5o967.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510237/original/file-20230215-26-c5o967.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510237/original/file-20230215-26-c5o967.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The planned Pilbara renewable megaproject would power mining operations and export green hydrogen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Oil and gas majors are well placed to make green hydrogen and green chemicals</h2>
<p>Hydrogen is tricky. The lightest element can diffuse through many materials and escape. That makes storage and transport difficult. </p>
<p>But oil and gas companies are experienced in handling hydrogen. That’s because it’s widely used in oil refineries to scrub sulphur out of oil and to help crack heavy oil into lighter grades. In fact, it’s so useful that most of the world’s hydrogen is used in oil production. At present, hydrogen is usually made by <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-natural-gas-reforming">breaking up</a> natural gas, which means it <a href="https://www.resources.org/common-resources/the-potential-of-hydrogen-for-decarbonization-reducing-emissions-in-oil-refining-and-ammonia-production/">contributes</a> to global heating. </p>
<p>But if we can figure out how to cheaply extract hydrogen from seawater, this green hydrogen could sub in for fossil gas. For this to happen, we’ll need oil and gas majors on board. The realities of green hydrogen would be daunting for most companies. Pipelines to transport it. Ways of storing it. Tankers to ship it across the sea. Heavy engineering projects with a high capital expenditure. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510234/original/file-20230215-2700-17vam5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="oil rig towed to new site" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510234/original/file-20230215-2700-17vam5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510234/original/file-20230215-2700-17vam5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510234/original/file-20230215-2700-17vam5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510234/original/file-20230215-2700-17vam5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510234/original/file-20230215-2700-17vam5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510234/original/file-20230215-2700-17vam5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510234/original/file-20230215-2700-17vam5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil and gas companies are expert in heavy engineering projects, scale and handling uncertainty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Oil and gas companies have had to pioneer a great deal of new technology to keep the fuel coming, given how much oil and gas has already been tapped, shipped and burned. Take fracking, which was invented out of necessity. Or the ability to drill for oil underneath kilometres of seawater in places like the North Sea. </p>
<p>To have a chance of getting to net zero by 2050, we’ll need scale. If green hydrogen or ammonia is to actually be useful, we need lots of it. </p>
<h2>How could oil and gas companies reinvent themselves?</h2>
<p>Not all oil companies are the same. Some will keep drilling for oil as long as there is demand. And state-owned oil companies such as Saudi Arabia’s Aramco are the main source of their country’s wealth. It’s hard to see them changing. </p>
<p>But some will move to grasp the future. Many people inside these companies can see very clearly where the world is going – and the risk of going extinct if they do not reinvent themselves. The first movers are likely to benefit the most, if they use their advantages to help the transition. </p>
<p>At present, oil and gas companies make money by drilling, processing and selling oil and gas to burn in engines. But as the clean energy transition gathers pace, there will be new opportunities. </p>
<p>If one major oil company figures out how to do green hydrogen at scale, they could take advantage of their integrated corporate network, from production to transport to service stations or other consumer points. Others might move into synthetic aviation fuel, or specialise in swapping LNG tankers for hydrogen vessels. </p>
<p>Even after you displace dirty fuels from transport and power sectors, there are many areas left over, such as chemical manufacturing. </p>
<p>Without fertilisers, we would have much lower yields from our farms. It’s <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-people-does-synthetic-fertilizer-feed">estimated</a> the equivalent of half the world’s population relies on food made possible by synthetic fertilisers. These come from natural (fossil) gas. </p>
<p>Similarly, paints, varnishes, glues and plastics currently need hydrocarbons as a feedstock. To replace these means changing the whole chain. </p>
<h2>Oil and gas don’t exist in a vacuum</h2>
<p>Just <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7a0dd553-fa5b-4a58-81d1-e500f8ce3d2a">last week</a>, the European Union hit the symbolic target of EU€100 (A$157) per tonne of carbon.</p>
<p>As carbon prices rise, it makes fossil fuel projects less attractive – and will make the economics of many marginal projects in renewables, green chemicals and hydrogen work. </p>
<p>You and I and most people alive have benefited from the intense energy stored in fossil fuels. They’ve underpinned the huge advances in our economies and technologies for over a century. But now the costs are plain. So let’s use all the tools we have available – even those wielded by climate villains like oil and gas companies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murray Shearer spent 20 years at BP, working in both hydrogen projects and oil</span></em></p>You won’t like this idea – but we may well need oil and gas companies to make green hydrogen and green chemicals a realityMurray Shearer, Professor of Hydrogen and Alternative Energy, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1984042023-02-24T00:45:54Z2023-02-24T00:45:54ZCurious Kids: where does wind actually come from?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507272/original/file-20230131-16-wacbvj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=66%2C26%2C4218%2C2932&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/YNM4KStg78I">Saad Chaudhry/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>Where does wind come from? – Zoya, age 14, Bhopal, India</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/curious-kids-36782"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291898/original/file-20190911-190031-enlxbk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=90&fit=crop&dpr=1" width="100%"></a></p>
<p>The short answer is wind happens because the Sun heats some parts of the planet more than others, and this uneven heating starts a wind going. That means wind energy is really a kind of solar energy!</p>
<h2>All winds are made the same way</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjH3IOSyd_8AhU-zqACHcjqDE0QFnoECAsQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Fscitable%2Fknowledge%2Flibrary%2Fwhere-do-winds-come-from-100578316%2F&usg=AOvVaw0K54CQ7PpdSsYr5Izp8obD">Wind systems on Earth</a> vary from the global-scale trade winds and jet streams to local sea breezes, but they all ultimately depend on Earth being unevenly heated by the Sun.</p>
<p>When the ground is heated during the day and gets very hot, it heats the air above it by a process called heat conduction. This makes the air expand to occupy a larger volume. According to something called the “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/ideal-gas-law">ideal gas law</a>”, the volume increases in direct proportion to the temperature.</p>
<p>In other words, the heated air is less dense. If this happens to all air, no wind will be created; the whole air layer will just be a bit thicker.</p>
<p>However, if it happens to air in one location but not its surroundings, the heated air will rise. This is the principle that allows hot air balloons to remain buoyant in the air: the total weight of the air in the balloon, plus the basket and people inside, must be about the same as the weight of the same volume of colder air outside the balloon.</p>
<p>If there is no load or tether, the balloon will just keep accelerating upward until it cools off.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507274/original/file-20230131-18-yczmof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A rocky desert scene with several colourful hot air balloons in the sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507274/original/file-20230131-18-yczmof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507274/original/file-20230131-18-yczmof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507274/original/file-20230131-18-yczmof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507274/original/file-20230131-18-yczmof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507274/original/file-20230131-18-yczmof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507274/original/file-20230131-18-yczmof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507274/original/file-20230131-18-yczmof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hot air balloons use the principle of the air changing density as it heats up and cools down.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/vCArUMDcHCQ">Timur Garifov/Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A rising hot air balloon doesn’t create any wind because it’s too small. But imagine if the same thing happens to all the air over a whole city or larger region!</p>
<p>When such a large amount of heated air rises away from the surface, other air near the ground has to flow in sideways to take its place. The larger the area over which this happens, the stronger the horizontal wind needs to be to get all that air into position.</p>
<p>This phenomenon gives us daytime sea breezes near coasts that can be fairly strong, where cooler ocean air flows in to replace the warmed continental air as it rises up. </p>
<p>Over many days, a similar process gives us monsoons, because the heating is stronger in summer and weaker in winter, leading to strong temperature contrasts and winds in summer (and often, opposite ones in winter).</p>
<p>In turn, this leads to seasonal shifts in the prevailing wind, which often bring rains during the warm season in tropical areas including India and the top end of Australia.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-australian-monsoon-69411">Explainer: what is the Australian monsoon?</a>
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<h2>There are some very big wind systems</h2>
<p>The biggest wind systems on the planet are called the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_circulation">general circulation of the atmosphere</a>. They include the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=trades#:%7E:text=tropical%20Ridge%20ENSO-,What%20are%20they%3F,global%20circulation%20of%20the%20atmosphere.">trade winds or easterlies</a>, the middle-latitude <a href="https://www.climate-policy-watcher.org/global-climate-2/winds-westerlies.html">westerlies</a> and the <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/roaring-forties.html">Roaring Forties</a>. </p>
<p>These large wind systems happen because the tropics get more Sun than the poles and (obviously) become a lot warmer. That warm air naturally starts to rise and wants to flow toward the poles, while polar air wants to come down to the tropics.</p>
<p>Of course, it takes a long time (many days) for the air to make such a long trip. Meanwhile Earth is constantly rotating, which means <a href="https://www.schooltube.com/media/Merry+Go+Round+and+the+Coriolis+Effect/1_uo3uoomf/129088791">things trying to move in a straight line will seem to gradually turn</a>.</p>
<p>The poleward-flowing wind gradually turns toward the east and becomes the middle-latitude westerlies (westerly means “from the west”). </p>
<p>The low-level wind heading toward the tropics turns toward the west and becomes the easterlies, also known as trade winds because ship captains have used these to cross the oceans for centuries. The middle-latitude westerlies are very strong at high altitude, approaching 300km per hour in some places!</p>
<p>You can see a great interactive visualisation <a href="https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-195.00,0.00,472">of all the winds on the planet here</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198404/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Sherwood receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>It can be disruptive or refreshing, and we feel it every single day. But do you ever stop to think what creates wind on our planet?Steven Sherwood, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.