tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/hispanics-32404/articlesHispanics – The Conversation2022-10-07T12:20:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1910422022-10-07T12:20:22Z2022-10-07T12:20:22ZCensus data hides racial diversity of US ‘Hispanics’ – to the country’s detriment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488087/original/file-20221004-21-dvyxff.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=74%2C37%2C8256%2C5425&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Biden Joe Biden speaks at a Hispanic Heritage Month 2022 reception at the White House. Just who counts as 'Hispanic' in the U.S. is an open question.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-biden-joe-biden-speaks-at-a-hispanic-heritage-news-photo/1243624729?phrase=hispanic heritage month&adppopup=true">Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As I opened an email from my local grocery store chain advertising Hispanic Heritage Month – which runs from Sept. 15 to Oct. 15 each year – I was surprised to see it highlighting recipes from four distinct regions: Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean and South America. </p>
<p>The advertisement rightly noted that while corn and beans have framed much of what in the United States is considered “Hispanic” foods, Latin America has a much greater diversity of foods. <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/cooking-technology-9781474234689/">Its cuisine</a>, which began long before the Spanish or other colonizers came to the Americas, continues to flourish. </p>
<p>While many of us <a href="https://theconversation.com/stop-using-latinx-if-you-really-want-to-be-inclusive-189358">Latine</a> – an alternative term for Latinos or Latinx that I prefer – embrace our European heritage, we also embrace our <a href="http://www.degruyter.com">Indigenous and African heritage</a>. </p>
<p>In recent decades, many Latin American nations have officially recognized their Indigenous and Afro-descendent populations as distinct groups with unique histories, cultures, foods and languages. </p>
<p>Countries across the Americas, including the United States, have <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/fulltextarticle/behind-the-numbers-race-and-ethnicity-in-latin-america/">revised their census questions to better understand their populations</a>, enabling them to create more inclusive policies that actually address people’s needs – and to recognize the too-often hidden achievements of these groups.</p>
<h2>Census changes in Latin America</h2>
<p>Some Latin American countries, such as Peru, have counted their Indigenous population for over a century. But with the exception of Brazil and Cuba, Latin American countries generally <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwim9bj5ysb6AhUwkIkEHZpEBgQQFnoECCoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fopenknowledge.worldbank.org%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F10986%2F30201%2F129298-7-8-2018-17-30-51-AfrodescendientesenLatinoamerica.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1QUIfPDCb5YXQRcxvrRl0L">excluded race on their national census</a>, allowing economic and social inequalities to flourish undocumented. </p>
<p>The effort to better capture both <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0276562415000177">Indigenous and Afro-descendant populations in Latin America began around the turn of the 21st century</a>.</p>
<p>Uruguay, a small and prosperous South American country, <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137001702_10">long portrayed itself as white and European</a> despite being home to <a href="https://www.uncpress.org/book/9780807871584/blackness-in-the-white-nation/">Afro-Uruguayans descended from enslaved Africans</a>. In 1996, under pressure from Afro-descendent activists, it added race to its national household survey. That census had census workers identify the respondents’ race and found the country to be 6% Afro-descended and revealed stunning racial disparities in education, income and employment. When in 2006 Uruguayan census-takers began asking residents to state their own racial identity, the <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/125852428/Towards-a-Framework-for-Multicultural-Justice-in-Uruguay-Afro-Descendant-Exclusion-and-Collective-Rights-Under-International-Law">Afro-descended population jumped to 10%</a>. This data shift had important implications when Uruguay implemented race-based affirmative action a few years later. </p>
<p>In Mexico, where Indigenous identity had previously been linked only to speakers of one of the country’s 68 Indigenous languages, the census was changed in 2020 to ask if respondents self-identified as Indigenous or belonged to a community that identified as Indigenous. The result was an increase of 7.1 million people to <a href="https://www.alcaldesdemexico.com/notas-principales/poblacion-indigena-en-mexico-la-realidad-en-cifras/">23.2 million who identified as Indigenous</a>. The same change targeting the Afro-Mexican population identified a previously unrecognized <a href="https://aldianews.com/en/culture/heritage-and-history/finally-visible">population of 2.5 million</a>. </p>
<h2>‘Some other race’</h2>
<p>The U.S. added a question about Hispanic descent to the 1970 census long form, and to the short form in 1980. The question asked, “Is this person of Hispanic/Spanish descent?” If the answer was Yes, these were following options: Mexican or Mexican-American or Chicano; Puerto Rican; Cuban; Other Spanish/Hispanic. </p>
<p>In subsequent decades, small changes were made such, as including the word “Latino” and allowing those who choose “other” in the national origin category to write in a response, with suggestions of “Argentinian, Colombian, Dominican, Salvadoran, Spaniard, and so on.” In 2020, the census allowed respondents to identify as “multiracial.”</p>
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<span class="caption">The 2020 U.S. census questionnaire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2020_census_questionnaire.jpg">Ɱ via Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>The U.S. Census Bureau argues that its categories now adequately capture the heritage of the 62.6 million <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/08/improvements-to-2020-census-race-hispanic-origin-question-designs.html">Hispanics that flourish in the U.S.</a> “because all detailed Hispanic origin groups are included in the newly combined code list.” </p>
<p>In fact, however, if your heritage stems from one of the hundreds of Indigenous or Afro-descended groups in Latin America, these identities remain outside of the way the U.S. captures race among the Hispanic populations. That may explain why, <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/08/2020-united-states-population-more-racially-ethnically-diverse-than-2010.html">according to the Census Bureau</a> “the vast majority (94%) of responses to the race question that are classified as Some Other Race are from people of Hispanic or Latino origin.” </p>
<h2>Overgeneralized and under-recognized</h2>
<p>When the fixed categories of a census erase the diversity of a population, the gross miscalculations that result may harm a country’s ability to appropriately respond to the needs of its people. </p>
<p>For example, the overgeneralizing of U.S. Hispanics hurts the quality of American education and health care when these institutions assume that Latin American heritage communities speak Spanish. In addition to Indigenous languages, Latino Afro-descendant populations may not speak Spanish but rather may speak French or Haitian Creole, Portuguese or an Indigenous language. If they are from the Miskito Coast of Nicaragua, they may speak an English Creole. </p>
<p>These language differences reflect unique cultures and histories that relate to how people engage with doctors, teachers, politicians and much more. </p>
<p>Failing to recognize the diversity of Hispanics also creates frequent election surprises in the U.S. For example, pollsters <a href="https://theconversation.com/so-called-latino-vote-is-32-million-americans-with-diverse-political-opinions-and-national-origins-149515">got the Latino vote all wrong in 2020</a> by lumping together 32 million people with diverse political opinions and national origins as “Latino.” <a href="https://theconversation.com/democrats-cant-count-on-latinos-to-swing-the-midterms-105338">Democrats arguably made the same mistake</a> in 2018. </p>
<p>In overgeneralizing Hispanics, the U.S may also overlook – to its own detriment – the knowledge and experience of a culturally unique people who bring with them alternative understandings of the world, some of which I’ve studied as an anthropologist focused on food security, migration and health in Latin America. These include agricultural practices that can aid <a href="http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in">American farmers in responding to the global climate crisis</a> and Mesoamerican strategies for health based on <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32848768/">communal care and traditional remedies</a>. </p>
<h2>A growing community with more to offer</h2>
<p>Despite its limitations, U.S. census data clearly shows that the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/09/15/who-is-hispanic/">Hispanic population continues to grow</a>. While the overall U.S. population increased 7% between 2010 and 2020, the Hispanic population expanded by 23%. Today, 1 in every 5 people in the U.S. identifies with Hispanic or Latino heritage.</p>
<p>This growth is particularly notable in the South – in states like Georgia and North Carolina – and in rural areas. The Hispanic population has become a demographic lifeline for parts of small-town America that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-020-09605-8">experienced significant population loss in the late 20th century</a>. </p>
<p>Hispanic communities have also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716211433445">reinvigorated urban neighborhoods</a> as they open small businesses.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man and woman dance as men in a traditional Mexican costumes entertain" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488138/original/file-20221004-22-69f9oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Mexicans and Mexican-Americans who live in Brooklyn, New York, celebrate a birthday in Prospect Park on April 4, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-and-woman-dance-as-men-in-a-traditional-mexican-news-photo/1310826559?phrase=Mexican%20brooklyn&adppopup=true">Roy Rochlin/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Rebuilding cities, stabilizing rural counties, expanding local economies – these are among the group contributions made by the community of Americans celebrated each year during Hispanic Heritage Month. </p>
<p>The better we understand the nuances of this large population, the better we will understand who we are as a nation – and benefit more fully from our diversity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191042/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ramona L. Pérez receives funding from the Tinker Foundation, National Science Foundation, and the US Department of Agriculture. She is affiliated with the American Anthropological Association, where she currently serves as president. </span></em></p>Countries across the Americas are tweaking their census to better understand their population, allowing them to create more responsive policies. The US still has a ways to go.Ramona L. Pérez, Professor of Anthropology, San Diego State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1892142022-10-06T12:17:22Z2022-10-06T12:17:22ZAffirmative action bans make selective colleges less diverse – a national ban will do the same<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/487587/original/file-20221001-25-5op2nd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C17%2C5923%2C3928&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Graduation is less likely for students at less selective schools.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/students-at-commencement-ceremony-royalty-free-image/88170494?adppopup=true">Andy Sacks via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments in two lawsuits on Oct. 31, 2022, brought by a group that opposes affirmative action in college admissions. Here, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=SE2WERAAAAAJ&hl=en">Natasha Warikoo</a>, a sociology professor at Tufts University and author of the newly released “<a href="https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=is-affirmative-action-fair-the-myth-of-equity-in-college-admissions--9781509549368">Is Affirmative Action Fair?: The Myth of Equity in College Admissions</a>,” shares insights on how the racial and ethnic makeup of student bodies at selective colleges and universities will change if the Supreme Court decides to outlaw affirmative action.</em></p>
<h2>What’s at stake with the cases against affirmative action?</h2>
<p>Currently, <a href="https://thesocietypages.org/discoveries/2017/10/17/race-for-admissions-changing-affirmative-action/">many selective colleges consider race</a> when they make decisions about which students to admit. In several cases since 1978, the U.S. Supreme Court has affirmed that it is constitutional to do so to ensure diversity on campus. </p>
<p>A ruling in favor of Students for Fair Admissions, the plaintiffs in the case, would require all colleges – both private and public – to no longer consider race when they make admissions decisions.</p>
<p>Since <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2019/04/12/why-might-states-ban-affirmative-action/">nine states already have bans on affirmative action</a>, it’s easy to know what will happen if affirmative action is outlawed. Studies of college enrollment in those states show that enrollment of Black, Hispanic and Native American undergraduate students will <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/0162373720904433">decline in the long term</a>.</p>
<p>Undergraduate enrollment is not the only area of higher education that will be affected. A ban on affirmative action will ultimately lead to fewer graduate degrees earned by Black, Hispanic and Native American students.</p>
<p>One study found that medical school enrollment for underrepresented minorities <a href="https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-4312">fell by an average of 5%</a> in eight states with bans on affirmative action. Wages will also be affected: A recent study estimates that among Hispanic young adults in California who applied to University of California colleges after the the state’s ban on affirmative action, earnings were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab027">5% less</a> than for Hispanics who applied before the ban. The evidence suggests that applicants after the ban attended lower-ranked colleges and, consequently, were less likely to graduate from college, which drove down their wages as graduates.</p>
<h2>What do people regularly get wrong about affirmative action?</h2>
<p>Many assume that affirmative action plays a bigger role in admissions decisions than it actually does. Some worry that the policy leads colleges to admit students who cannot cope with the academic demands of the colleges to which they are admitted. This “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/12/the-needlessly-polarized-mismatch-theory-debate/420321/">mismatch theory</a>,” as it is sometimes called, has not proved to be true.</p>
<p>Research shows that Black students who are admitted with help from affirmative action are <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691050195/the-shape-of-the-river">more likely to go on to earn advanced degrees</a> than Black students with similar academic achievement but whose admission was not helped by affirmative action.</p>
<p>And California’s 1998 ban led to <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/137/1/115/6360982?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=true">fewer STEM degrees attained by Black and Hispanic students</a> in California colleges. This was especially true for those with weaker academic preparation – that is to say, those thought to be most negatively affected by “mismatch.”</p>
<h2>How will things change if affirmative action ends?</h2>
<p>Based on <a href="https://doi.org/10.3102/0162373720904433">what happened in states</a> where affirmative action has already been banned, there will be sharp drops in the numbers of Black, Hispanic and Native American students at selective colleges, especially those that are the most selective.</p>
<p>Students who end up at less selective colleges will be <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/ctr/undergrad-retention-graduation">less likely to graduate</a>. That’s because lower-ranked colleges tend to have fewer resources to support student success and, as a result, <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/ctr/undergrad-retention-graduation">tend to have lower graduation rates</a>.</p>
<p>Ending affirmative action will make it harder to increase the percentage of professionals and leaders from minority backgrounds. This is because, as research has shown, affirmative action has increased the number of Black college graduates and, in turn, <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691050195/the-shape-of-the-river">increased the number of Black professionals with advanced degrees</a>. </p>
<p>If such a setback takes place, it will come at a time when many organizations and companies are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/george-floyd-corporate-america-racial-justice/">pledging support for racial justice</a> and an <a href="https://www.glassdoor.com/employers/blog/inspiration-for-ramping-up-diversity-inclusion-efforts/">increase diversity among their staff and leadership</a>.</p>
<h2>What’s the main takeaway from your book?</h2>
<p>Overall, I argue that admissions should be less about who gets into college and more about what students will do once they get out. I believe this requires less emphasis on individual achievements – and more emphasis on the broader mission of college. That mission includes preparing people from a wide range of ethnic and racial backgrounds to make <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3838697">contributions to society</a>. Affirmative action, I argue, is one tool to do just that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189214/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natasha Warikoo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>America’s selective colleges and universities become less diverse if the Supreme Court shoots down affirmative action in higher education, an expert on the subject warns.Natasha Warikoo, Lenore Stern Professor in the Humanities and Social Sciences, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1885122022-09-12T12:14:42Z2022-09-12T12:14:42ZArizona’s Latino voters and political independents could spell midterm defeats for MAGA candidates<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483074/original/file-20220906-26-hq36uz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=820%2C95%2C3167%2C2556&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona marches in a Fourth of July parade in Arizona on July 4, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-mark-kelly-d-ariz-marches-in-the-flagstaff-chamber-of-news-photo/1241705786?adppopup=true">Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two years after the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump’s resentment over losing continues to energize his supporters in Arizona. </p>
<p>That resentment played out during the Aug. 13, 2022, Republican primaries that saw Trump-endorsed candidates for U.S. Senate, governor, secretary of state and state attorney general <a href="https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/arizona/">sweep the GOP ticket</a>.</p>
<p>While each of the candidates made Trump’s false claims that he won the presidential contest a central part of their campaigns, it’s unclear whether that message will resonate among Arizona’s increasingly diverse registered voters in the general election on Nov. 8, 2022. </p>
<p>Trump-endorsed <a href="https://www.blakemasters.com/">Blake Masters</a> beat his Republican challengers and faces incumbent <a href="https://www.kelly.senate.gov/">Sen. Mark Kelly</a>. In the governor’s race, <a href="https://www.karilake.com/">Kari Lake</a>, the former television anchor endorsed by Trump, is facing Democrat <a href="https://azsos.gov/">Kati Hobbes</a>, the sitting Arizona secretary of state, for the governor’s office.</p>
<p>In the state’s attorney general’s race, GOP candidate and another 2020 election denier <a href="https://ktar.com/story/5178495/abraham-hamadehs-gop-arizona-attorney-general-primary-win-another-trump-victory/">Abraham Hamadeh</a>, faces Democrat <a href="https://krismayes.com/">Kris Mayes</a>. </p>
<p>Most disconcerting to Democrats was the primary win of <a href="https://www.azleg.gov/house-member/?legislature=53&session=117&legislator=1727">Arizona state Rep. Mark Finchem</a>, a 2020 election denier who won the Republican nomination for secretary of state over a more moderate Republican. If he beats <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/arizona/articles/2022-08-04/democrat-adrian-fontes-wins-arizona-secretary-of-state-race">Democrat Adrian Fontes</a> in the November general election, Finchem would oversee the state’s elections.</p>
<p>That possibility has Democrats fearing repeats of political acts such as the <a href="https://www.azmirror.com/blog/audit-records-show-cyber-ninjas-went-deep-into-debt-despite-pro-trump-donations/">Republican-backed review of the 2020 presidential election</a> in Arizona’s largest county that ended without producing proof to support Trump’s false claims of a stolen election.</p>
<h2>Changing demographics favor Democrats</h2>
<p>As a native Arizonan who has <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=W-qCxKMAAAAJ&hl=en">studied Arizona politics</a> for the past 20 years, I have seen <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2022/03/09/gaggle-how-rise-extremism-defines-todays-arizona-gop/9418970002/">the rise of political extremism</a> in my home state. </p>
<p>The victories of extremist GOP candidates and open support of baseless conspiracy theories have added a volatile ingredient to the politics of Arizona, where a historically conservative electorate is undergoing dramatic political shifts due to <a href="https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?g=0400000US04&tid=ACSDT1Y2019.B03002">changing demographics</a>.</p>
<p>Over the past 10 years, residents who identify solely as white saw their numbers shrink from 73% in 2010 to 60% in 2020. At the same time, the number of residents who identified as more than one race grew from 3.4% in 2010 to nearly 14% in 2020.</p>
<p>In all, Arizona has close to 7.5 million residents, and over 30% of them identify as Latino. Over the past decade, the <a href="https://coppercourier.com/story/growing-power-latino-voters-arizona/#:%7E:text=Between%202010%20and%202020%2C%20Arizona's,an%20increase%20of%2011.9%20percent.&text=During%20the%20same%20period%2C%20the,million%2C%20increasing%20by%2015.7%20percent.">state’s Latino population</a> grew from 1.9 million to 2.2 million. By some estimates, Latinos could make up <a href="https://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/sites/default/files/lcpp_latinovote.pdf">as much as 50%</a> of the state’s population by 2050. </p>
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<img alt="As in many other states, a voter is walking by Election Day signs that are written in English and Spanish." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482838/original/file-20220905-12-hg8wg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482838/original/file-20220905-12-hg8wg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482838/original/file-20220905-12-hg8wg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482838/original/file-20220905-12-hg8wg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482838/original/file-20220905-12-hg8wg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482838/original/file-20220905-12-hg8wg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482838/original/file-20220905-12-hg8wg2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Election signs in Arizona are written in both English and Spanish.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/arizona-voters-make-their-way-to-a-polling-place-to-cast-news-photo/1024855688?adppopup=true">Ralph Freso/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If national statistics are any indication, Latino voters tend to <a href="https://app.box.com/s/ecygirvsu4yuqszvvrxv7y7yvpg0ee6d">support Democrats</a>. In a <a href="https://app.box.com/s/ecygirvsu4yuqszvvrxv7y7yvpg0ee6d">March 2022 poll</a>, about 48% of Latinos nationwide considered themselves Democrats, and only 23% identified as Republican.</p>
<p>In Arizona, the numbers are similar. </p>
<p><a href="https://naleo.org/COMMS/PRA/2022/2022-Arizona-Voter-Profile.pdf">According to a 2022 study</a>, Latinos are more likely to be Democrats than non-Latinos are, with 45% of Latinos affiliating with the Democratic Party, compared with 28% of non-Latinos. Less than 15% of Latinos are registered as Republicans, the report found, and 40% are registered as “other” and are not affiliated with either major party. </p>
<p>The growth of Latino voters in Arizona contributed to Joe Biden’s win in 2020 – and also the elections of Democrats <a href="https://markkelly.com/">Mark Kelly</a> and <a href="https://www.sinema.senate.gov/">Kyrsten Sinema</a> to the U.S. Senate. </p>
<h2>MAGA state?</h2>
<p>For the past 70 years, Arizona has been a reliable state for Republican presidential politicians. Bill Clinton was the only Democratic candidate to win a presidential race there since the election of Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952. </p>
<p>That changed in 2020 with <a href="https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/arizona/">Biden’s surprising win</a> over Trump. Though the election saw a record turnout of about 3.4 million voters, it was ultimately decided by a mere 10,457 votes. </p>
<p>Since then, Republican leaders in Arizona and around the nation have taken a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/08/18/1117171029/how-the-hard-right-turn-in-the-arizona-gop-is-an-anti-democracy-experiment">hard right</a>. </p>
<p>The party that was once dominated by conservative leader <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/daily/may98/goldwater30.htm">Barry Goldwater</a> and <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2022/08/29/remember-john-mccain-legacy-protect-democracy/7895338001/?gnt-cfr=1">John McCain</a>, a moderate Republican who believed in fighting against climate change, has been taken over by leaders who support the notion that Trump somehow won the state and the last presidential election.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white man dressed in navy blue suit with a white shirt and red tie hugs a smiling woman on stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482834/original/file-20220905-18-mgnuue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482834/original/file-20220905-18-mgnuue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482834/original/file-20220905-18-mgnuue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482834/original/file-20220905-18-mgnuue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482834/original/file-20220905-18-mgnuue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482834/original/file-20220905-18-mgnuue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482834/original/file-20220905-18-mgnuue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump embraces Kari Lake, the Arizona GOP candidate for governor, at a rally on July 22, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-president-donald-trump-embraces-republican-candidate-news-photo/1410394562?adppopup=true">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Given the increase in Latino voters in the state, it is no surprise that tightening immigration laws is an issue among the GOP, especially among Trump supporters.</p>
<p>In fact, Lake wasted little time after her primary win to use <a href="https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1552863263292919808">incendiary language</a> in proclaiming her first goal if elected governor in November. </p>
<p>“Day 1,” she wrote on Twitter. “I take my hand off the Bible, give the Oath of Office and we Declare an Invasion on our Southern Border …”</p>
<p>As part of her campaign, Lake has attempted to paint Hobbes as someone who would be ineffective on border security. It’s <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/kari-lake-chances-beating-katie-hobbs-arizona-governor-1731145">unclear whether that strategy</a> will work in a state with a fast-growing Latino population.</p>
<p>While Lake is fully embracing her MAGA support, Masters is doing the opposite in the U.S. Senate race against the incumbent Kelly. In one of the most competitive U.S. Senate races in the country, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/arizona/">Kelly, a moderate Democrat,</a> is favored to win. As a result, Masters has started moderating his image and toning down his extremist rhetoric after beating his GOP rivals. </p>
<p>On abortion, for instance, Masters has gone as far as <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/arizona-blake-masters-backtracks-abortion-scrubs-campaign-website-rcna44808">scrubbing his own website</a> of previous hard-line, anti-abortion stances and support for Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him.</p>
<p>“We need to get serious about election integrity,” <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20220801220948/https://www.blakemasters.com/">Masters posted on his site</a> in August. “The 2020 election was a rotten mess – if we had had a free and fair election, President Trump would be sitting in the Oval Office today and America would be so much better off.”</p>
<p>After the primary, Masters’ site only says, “We need to get serious about election integrity.”</p>
<h2>Counting the political numbers</h2>
<p>Heading into November, one thing is clear: The 2022 midterm elections in Arizona cannot be won by one party alone, but requires a combination of Republicans, Democrats and independent voters to win in this evenly divided state.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black and a white woman sit side by side at a table with a desktop computer in a crowded room." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482628/original/file-20220904-39859-qctegf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482628/original/file-20220904-39859-qctegf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482628/original/file-20220904-39859-qctegf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482628/original/file-20220904-39859-qctegf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482628/original/file-20220904-39859-qctegf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482628/original/file-20220904-39859-qctegf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482628/original/file-20220904-39859-qctegf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two election workers, one a Democrat and the other a Republican, sit side by side in Arizona during the 2020 presidential election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/election-workers-one-democrat-and-one-republican-sit-side-news-photo/1229498123?adppopup=true">Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Among registered voters, the GOP has about 1.5 million residents, or 35%. Nearly 1.3 million voters are registered as Democrats, while about 1.4 million, or about 34%, registered as other or independent. </p>
<p>With such an equal split among political parties, election outcomes rely more on voter turnout. In the past two presidential elections, the number of <a href="https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data">registered voters who cast ballots</a> jumped from about 2.6 million, or 74%, in 2016 to 3.4 million, or nearly 80%, in 2020. </p>
<p>The state GOP is counting on President Biden’s <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">low approval ratings</a>, high inflation and the typical midterm referendum on the incumbent’s party to get its voters out on Election Day.</p>
<p>The Democrats are focusing on get-out-the-vote efforts, particularly among <a href="https://www.state.gov/briefings-foreign-press-centers/midterm-elections-latino-voters">young Latinos</a>, and painting the Trump-endorsed candidates as too extreme for Arizonans. </p>
<p>Given the changing demographics in Arizona, that strategy may appeal to not only independent voters but also mainstream Republicans disillusioned with the extreme wing of their party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gina Woodall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Arizona has been a reliable vote for GOP candidates for the past 70 years. But the 2020 election of Democrat Joe Biden underscores the political impact of the state’s changing demographics.Gina Woodall, Principal Lecturer at the School of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1893582022-09-09T12:57:32Z2022-09-09T12:57:32ZStop using ‘Latinx’ if you really want to be inclusive<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483804/original/file-20220909-15-jjaw4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C11%2C3811%2C2144&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">'Latine' is much more adaptable to the Spanish language.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mario Garza</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most of the debates on the usage of “Latinx” – pronounced “la-teen-ex” – have taken place in the U.S. But the word has begun to spread into Spanish-speaking countries – where it hasn’t exactly been embraced. </p>
<p>In July 2022, Argentina and Spain <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/20/world/americas/argentina-gender-neutral-spanish.html">released public statements</a> banning the use of Latinx, or any gender-neutral variant. Both governments reasoned that these new terms are violations of the rules of the Spanish language.</p>
<p>Latinx is used as an individual identity for those who are gender-nonconforming, and it can also describe an entire population without using “Latinos,” which is currently the default in Spanish for a group of men and women.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.slu.edu/arts-and-sciences/women-gender-studies/faculty/melissa-ochoa.php">a Mexican-born, U.S.-raised scholar</a>, I agree with the official Argentine and Spanish stance on banning Latinx from the Spanish language – English, too.</p>
<p>When I first heard Latinx in 2017, I thought it was progressive and inclusive, but I quickly realized how problematic it was. Five years later, Latinx is not commonly used in Spanish-speaking countries, nor is it used by the majority of those identifying as Hispanic or Latino in the U.S.</p>
<p>In fact, there’s a gender-inclusive term that’s already being used by Spanish-speaking activists that works as a far more natural replacement. </p>
<h2>Low usage</h2>
<p>Though the exact origins of Latinx are unclear, it <a href="https://www.history.com/news/hispanic-latino-latinx-chicano-background">emerged sometime around 2004</a> and gained popularity around 2014. Merriam-Webster added it to its dictionary <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/word-history-latinx">in 2018</a>. </p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2020/08/11/about-one-in-four-u-s-hispanics-have-heard-of-latinx-but-just-3-use-it/#fn-29384-1">a 2019 Pew research study</a> and <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/353000/no-preferred-racial-term-among-black-hispanic-adults.aspx">2021 Gallup poll</a> indicated that less than 5% of the U.S. population used “Latinx” as a racial or ethnic identity.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1423107586266632192"}"></div></p>
<p>Nonetheless, Latinx <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306238">is becoming commonplace</a> among academics; it’s used at conferences, in communication and especially in publications.</p>
<p>But is it inclusive to use Latinx when most of the population does not? </p>
<h2>Perpetuating elitism</h2>
<p>The distinct demographic differences of those who are aware of or use Latinx calls into question whether the term is inclusive or just elitist. </p>
<p>Individuals who self-identiy as Latinx or are aware of the term <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2020/08/11/about-one-in-four-u-s-hispanics-have-heard-of-latinx-but-just-3-use-it/#fn-29384-1">are most likely to be</a> U.S.-born, young adults from 18 to 29 years old. They are predominately English-speakers and have some college education. In other words, the most marginalized communities do not use Latinx.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1484941174070779908"}"></div></p>
<p>Scholars, in my view, should never impose social identities onto groups that do not self-identify that way. </p>
<p>I once had a reviewer for an academic journal article I submitted about women’s experiences with catcalling tell me to replace my use of “Latino” and “Latina” with “Latinx.” However, they had no issue with me using “man” or “woman” when it came to my white participants. </p>
<p>I was annoyed at the audacity of this reviewer. The goal of the study was to show catcalling, a gendered interaction, as an everyday form of sexism. </p>
<p>How was I supposed to differentiate my participants’ sexism experiences by gender and race if I labeled them all as Latinx?</p>
<h2>The ‘x’ factor</h2>
<p>If a term is truly inclusive, it gives equitable weight to vastly diverse experiences and knowledge; it is not meant to be a blanket identity.</p>
<p>Women of color, in general, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/04/01/stem-jobs-see-uneven-progress-in-increasing-gender-racial-and-ethnic-diversity/">are severely underrepresented</a> in leadership positions and STEM fields. Using “Latinx” for women further obscures their contributions and identity. I have even seen some academics try to get around the nebulous nature of Latinx by writing “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/08901171211073960">Latinx mothers</a>” or “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bodyim.2022.04.008">Latinx women</a>” instead of “Latinas.”</p>
<p>Furthermore, if the goal is to be inclusive, the “x” would be easily pronounceable and naturally applied to other parts of the Spanish language.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7560/754010">Some Spanish speakers would rather identify</a> by nationality – say, “Mexicano” or “Argentino” – instead of using umbrella terms like Hispanic or Latino. But the “x” can’t be easily applied to nationalities. Like Latinx, “Mexicanx” and “Argentinx” don’t exactly roll off the tongue in any language. Meanwhile, gendered articles in Spanish – “los” and “las” for the plural “the” – become “lxs,” while gendered pronouns –“el” and “ella” becomes “ellx.” </p>
<p>The utility and logic of it quickly falls apart.</p>
<h2>‘Latine’ as an alternative</h2>
<p>Many academics might feel compelled to continue to use Latinx because they fought hard to have it recognized by their institutions or have already published the term in an academic journal. But there is a much better gender-inclusive alternative, one that’s been largely overlooked by the U.S. academic community and is already being used in Spanish-speaking parts of Latin America, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2019/12/05/teens-argentina-are-leading-charge-gender-neutral-language/">especially among young social activists</a> in those countries.</p>
<p>It’s “Latine” – pronounced “lah-teen-eh” – and it’s far more adaptable to the Spanish language. It can be implemented as articles – “les” instead of “los” or “las,” the words for “the.” When it comes to pronouns, “elle” can become a singular form of “they” and used in place of the masculine “él” or feminine “ella,” which translate to “he” and “she.” It can also be readily applied to most nationalities, such as “Mexicane” or “Argentine.”</p>
<p>Because language shapes the way we think, it’s important to note that gendered languages like Spanish, German and French do facilitate <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/405621528167411253/pdf/WPS8464.pdf">gender stereotypes and discrimination</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2019/12/05/teens-argentina-are-leading-charge-gender-neutral-language/">For example</a>, in German, the word for bridge is feminine, and in Spanish, the word for bridge is masculine. Cognitive scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8mm3GBsAAAAJ&hl=en">Lera Boroditsky</a> had German speakers and Spanish speakers describe a bridge. The German speakers were more likely to describe it using adjectives like “beautiful” or “elegant,” while the Spanish speakers were more likely to describe it in masculine ways – “tall” and “strong.”</p>
<p>Moreover, the existing gender rules in Spanish are not perfect. Usually words ending in “-o” are masculine and those ending in “-a” are feminine, but there are many common words <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/words-that-break-the-gender-rule-3078133">that break those gender rules</a>, like “la mano,” the word for “hand.” And, of course, Spanish already uses an “e” <a href="https://callmelatine.com/faq/">for gender-neutral words</a>, such as “estudiante,” or “student.”</p>
<p>I believe Latine accomplishes what Latinx originally meant to and more. Similarly, it eliminates the gender binary in its singular and plural form. However, Latine is not confined to an elite, English-speaking population within the U.S. It is inclusive.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, problems can still arise when the word “Latine” is imposed onto others. “Latina” and “Latino” may still be preferable for many individuals. I don’t think the “-e” should eliminate the existing “-o” and the “-a.” Instead, it could be a grammatically acceptable addition to the Spanish language.</p>
<p>Yes, Argentina and Spain’s ban of Latinx also included a ban on the use of Latine. Here is where I diverge from their directive. To me, the idea that language can be purist is nonsensical; language always evolves, whether it’s <a href="https://www.languagewire.com/en/blog/how-language-evolves">through technology</a> – think emojis and <a href="https://theconversation.com/emoticons-and-symbols-arent-ruining-language-theyre-revolutionizing-it-38408">textspeak</a> – or increased social awareness, such as the evolution from “wife beating” to “<a href="https://cppr-institute-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/modules/HFAModules/Resources/IPV%20New%20Directions.pdf">intimate partner violence.</a>” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/sapir-whorf-hypothesis-1691924">Linguistic theory</a> posits that language shapes reality, so cultures and communities can create words that shape the inclusive world they want to inhabit. </p>
<p>Language matters. Latine embodies that inclusivity – across socioeconomic status, citizenship, education, gender identity, age groups and nations, while <a href="https://storylearning.com/learn/spanish/spanish-tips/inclusive-spanish">honoring the Spanish language in the process</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189358/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa K. Ochoa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some Spanish-speaking activists are already using a different gender-inclusive term, arguing it’s a better replacement for Latinx.Melissa K. Ochoa, Assistant Professor of Women's and Gender Studies, Saint Louis UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1460062020-10-16T11:02:33Z2020-10-16T11:02:33ZHispanics live longer than most Americans, but will the US obesity epidemic change things?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363729/original/file-20201015-17-18kvuez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C21%2C3589%2C2274&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Juan Duran-Gutierrez kisses his newborn daughter Andrea for the first time in his home after bringing her home from the hospital on Aug. 5.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/juan-duran-gutierrez-kissed-his-newborn-baby-girl-andrea-news-photo/1279220691">Elizabeth Flores/Star Tribune via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Anti-immigrant sentiments have fueled recent national and state-level health policy efforts. In 2019, Donald Trump signed a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-will-financially-burden-united-states-healthcare-system/">presidential proclamation</a> that would deny visas to immigrants who could not provide proof of insurance. He argued that they would financially burden the health care system. More recently, Missouri’s August election ballot proposed Medicaid expansion, and <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article244613202.html">opponents warned</a> that it would overwhelm Missouri hospitals with undocumented immigrants, even though they are ineligible for Medicaid benefits. </p>
<p>We study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Fk9a3NEAAAAJ&hl=en">immigrant health</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=N_hRBeEAAAAJ&hl=en">population health</a>. Our work suggests that viewing immigrants as a drain on the U.S. health care system is largely unfounded. For decades, research has shown that immigrants tend to be healthier than U.S.-born whites. Immigrants outlive U.S.-born whites, and, among Hispanics, both immigrants and the U.S.-born have longer life expectancies than whites. </p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15195/v7.a16">Our latest study</a> suggests that Hispanic immigrants will continue to enjoy longer lives than U.S.-born whites in the near future; but the life expectancy of U.S.-born Hispanics may fall to levels on par with U.S.-born whites. Why? Like many Americans, U.S.-born Hispanics increasingly face a high risk of obesity and obesity-related health complications such as diabetes and heart disease. </p>
<p>To us, the juxtaposition of expected trends in life expectancy between Hispanic immigrants and U.S.-born Hispanics suggests that immigrants are not a drain on the U.S. health care system. Instead, the U.S. is a country with many issues that undermine the health of Hispanics and society more generally. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two landscaping workers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363739/original/file-20201015-21-6r1wnj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363739/original/file-20201015-21-6r1wnj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363739/original/file-20201015-21-6r1wnj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363739/original/file-20201015-21-6r1wnj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363739/original/file-20201015-21-6r1wnj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363739/original/file-20201015-21-6r1wnj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363739/original/file-20201015-21-6r1wnj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Landscape workers from Guatemala at a job in San Rafael, California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/illegal-immigrants-misael-amrocio-and-jose-augustine-both-news-photo/74262174?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A perplexing paradox</h2>
<p>Hispanic immigrants to the U.S. live three to four years longer than U.S.-born whites, and U.S.-born Hispanics live two years longer than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100374">U.S.-born whites.</a> Hispanics’ life expectancy advantage is a long-standing phenomenon that has perplexed researchers. Education and income are strong predictors of life expectancy, and on average Hispanics lag behind whites on both indicators of socioeconomic status. This has led researchers to label Hispanics’ life expectancy advantage as an <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1477704/pdf/pubhealthrep00183-0027.pdf">“epidemiological paradox.”</a> </p>
<p>What is behind it? One primary driver is Hispanics’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.12.028">historically low smoking rates</a>. Smoking has long been the leading cause of preventable U.S. deaths. <a href="https://www.lung.org/quit-smoking/smoking-facts/impact-of-tobacco-use/tobacco-use-racial-and-ethnic">Whites smoke more than Hispanics</a>, and when Hispanics do smoke, they smoke less frequently and persistently than whites. </p>
<p>Immigrants’ life circumstances also contribute to their longevity. Moving to a new country <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10903-012-9646-y">requires the physical ability to work</a>. This is especially important for Hispanic immigrants, as they tend to have jobs that require taxing physical labor.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Signs for fast food restaurants along a Los Angeles street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363738/original/file-20201015-15-12cdwn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363738/original/file-20201015-15-12cdwn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363738/original/file-20201015-15-12cdwn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363738/original/file-20201015-15-12cdwn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363738/original/file-20201015-15-12cdwn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363738/original/file-20201015-15-12cdwn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363738/original/file-20201015-15-12cdwn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Signs for fast-food restaurants line the streets in the Figueroa Corridor of Los Angeles. South LA has the highest concentration of fast-food restaurants in the city.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/signs-for-taco-bell-grinder-mcdonalds-panda-express-fast-news-photo/82055766?adppopup=true">David McNew/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Could obesity and smoking change this?</h2>
<p>In recent decades, obesity has emerged as a serious health problem. It now joins smoking as one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/obesity-second-to-smoking-as-the-most-preventable-cause-of-us-deaths-needs-new-approaches-129317">two leading causes of preventable U.S. deaths</a>. Among the U.S. population as a whole, the increasing prevalence of obesity has not led to an expected life expectancy decline because it has been offset by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-013-0246-9">substantial declines in smoking</a>. </p>
<p>Researchers have been concerned that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0164027515620242">smoking and obesity trends may not offset each other among Hispanics </a>– especially those who are U.S.-born. This possibility has fueled speculation that Hispanics’ paradoxical life expectancy advantage might erode as new generations age.</p>
<p>We wanted to know if this speculation is warranted. We calculated how much smoking and obesity changed among Hispanics and whites born in the six different decades between 1920 and 1989. We then estimated how much life expectancy could change as a result of estimated smoking and obesity trends. </p>
<p>We found that the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15195/v7.a16">proportion of smokers</a> among U.S.-born whites, U.S.-born Hispanics and Hispanic immigrants declined across decades. Yet smoking declined fastest among Hispanic immigrants. During this same period, the obesity prevalence increased for all groups, but U.S.-born Hispanics had the steepest rise. </p>
<p>What do these trends mean for the future of the epidemiological paradox? Our study results suggest that Hispanic immigrants will likely retain their life expectancy advantage over whites. In contrast, U.S.-born Hispanics will likely lose their life expectancy advantage, because their declines in smoking do not offset their increasing obesity prevalence. </p>
<p>In addition, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15195/v7.a16">obesity has a stronger influence</a> on U.S.-born Hispanics’ risk of death relative to whites. This could possibly be because Hispanics are less likely than whites to manage diabetes and other obesity-related health problems. Hispanics also use health care services less frequently than whites, despite stereotypes to the contrary. </p>
<h2>Putting it all together</h2>
<p>Should we be alarmed about the erosion of the epidemiological paradox? After all, Hispanic immigrants are expected to retain their life expectancy advantage, and U.S.-born Hispanics face declines in life expectancy, but not to the point of living shorter lives than whites. </p>
<p>As researchers, our answer to this question is a resounding “yes.” Federal agendas for building a healthier nation call for <a href="https://www.healthypeople.gov/2020/about/foundation-health-measures/Disparities">eliminating racial and ethnic disparities in health</a>. Plans to achieve this goal aim to improve health among groups with worse outcomes. </p>
<p>Therefore, the converging life expectancies of U.S.-born Hispanics and whites that result from declines among Hispanics are not an outcome to celebrate. </p>
<p>Hispanic immigrants’ persistent life expectancy advantage should also be a wake-up call for all Americans. Life expectancy is a leading indicator of a nation’s health. Immigrants may be stereotyped as drains on the health care system, but the reality is that their health behaviors and longevity set a standard which we believe U.S.-born Americans should strive to attain. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Signs point in the opposite direction. Average U.S. life expectancy has actually declined, a phenomenon due in large part to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2019.16932">deaths from drugs, excessive alcohol use and suicide</a>. This decline occurred even before the COVID-19 pandemic, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/13/923253681/americans-are-dying-in-the-pandemic-at-rates-far-higher-than-in-other-countries">which is hitting the U.S. especially hard and much worse than other high income nations</a>. </p>
<p>To us, projected declines in life expectancy among U.S.-born Hispanics due to obesity; increasing U.S. deaths from drugs, alcohol and suicide; and the toll of the COVID-19 pandemic suggest that immigrants are not threatening the U.S. health care system. Instead, the U.S. faces a wide array of population health problems that jeopardize how long Americans will live.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146006/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle L. Frisco has received funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Van Hook has received funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Health and Human Development, the National Science Foundation, and the Russell Sage Foundation. She is a nonresident fellow at the Migration Policy Institute and on the faculty at the Pennsylvania State University. </span></em></p>Hispanics born in the US have worse health outcomes than Hispanics in the US who were born in countries from which they emigrated.Michelle L. Frisco, Associate Professor of Sociology and Demography, Penn StateJennifer Van Hook, Roy C. Buck Professor of Sociology and Demography, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1434132020-08-20T12:15:55Z2020-08-20T12:15:55ZThe risk of preterm birth rises near gas flaring, reflecting deep-rooted environmental injustices in rural America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352598/original/file-20200812-22-1gjkz9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C3000%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New research found a significantly higher risk of preterm births near gas flaring in Texas, particularly among Latinas. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flared-natural-gas-is-burned-off-at-apache-corporations-news-photo/462843546">Spencer Platt/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Through the southern reaches of Texas, communities are scattered across a flat landscape of dry brush lands, ranches and agricultural fields. This large rural region near the U.S.-Mexico border is known for its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1549-0831.1996.tb00612.x">persistent poverty</a>. <a href="http://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.243981">Over 25% of the families here live in poverty</a>, and many lack access to basic services like water, sewer and <a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/sites/default/files/2019-06/Radley_State_Scorecard_2019.pdf">primary health care</a>.</p>
<p>This is also home to the Eagle Ford shale, where domestic oil and gas production has boomed. The Eagle Ford is widely considered the most <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/092619-eagle-ford-remains-profitable-even-amid-challenging-financial-markets">profitable U.S. shale play</a>, producing <a href="https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf">more than 1.2 million barrels</a> of oil daily in 2019, up from fewer than 350,000 barrels per day just a decade earlier. </p>
<p>The rapid production growth here has not led to substantial shared <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12198">economic benefits</a> at the local level, however.</p>
<p>Low-income communities and communities of color here bear the brunt of the energy industry’s pollution, our research shows. And we now know those risks also extend to the unborn. Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6394">latest study</a> documents how women living near gas flaring sites have significantly higher risks of giving birth prematurely than others, and that this risk falls mainly on Latina women.</p>
<h2>Gas flaring and health risks</h2>
<p>Many low-income residents and seniors living in the Eagle Ford shale believe the wastes from energy production – including disposal wells for oil production wastewater and gas flaring – are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.05.006">harming their communities</a>. </p>
<p>In our research in the region as <a href="https://ph.ucla.edu/faculty/cushing">professors of environmental health</a> and <a href="https://preventivemedicine.usc.edu/Jill-Johnston/">preventive medicine</a>, we have shown how poor communities and communities of color bear more of the burden of these wastes. </p>
<p>It happens with fracking wastewater disposal wells, where “flowback” water from fracked wells containing toxic chemicals is injected back into the ground. Disposal wells bring new truck traffic to neighborhoods and may contaminate groundwater. In a study in 2016, we found these disposal wells were <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2015.303000">disproportionately in high-poverty areas</a> in the region. They were also more than twice as common in areas where the population was more than 80% people of color than in majority-white areas. </p>
<p>These communities also bear more of the burden of gas flaring, the highly visible practice of burning off waste gas during oil production. Flaring releases greenhouse gases and hazardous air pollutants, including particulate matter, black carbon, benzene and hydrogen sulfide, pollutants that have been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular problems. We found areas with majority Hispanic populations were exposed to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c00410">twice as many nightly flares</a> as those with few Hispanics.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A satellite view of Texas at night shows gas flaring in the Eagle Ford shale region." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352596/original/file-20200812-18-12gu6gz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352596/original/file-20200812-18-12gu6gz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352596/original/file-20200812-18-12gu6gz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352596/original/file-20200812-18-12gu6gz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352596/original/file-20200812-18-12gu6gz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352596/original/file-20200812-18-12gu6gz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352596/original/file-20200812-18-12gu6gz.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A satellite view of Texas at night shows gas flaring in the Eagle Ford shale region. The boxed area is shown in the photo below.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/87725/shale-revolution-as-clear-as-night-and-day">Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The pads for oil and gas wells are evident in a satellite view of La Salle County, Texas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352597/original/file-20200812-16-2b28ez.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352597/original/file-20200812-16-2b28ez.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352597/original/file-20200812-16-2b28ez.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352597/original/file-20200812-16-2b28ez.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352597/original/file-20200812-16-2b28ez.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352597/original/file-20200812-16-2b28ez.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352597/original/file-20200812-16-2b28ez.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The pads for oil and gas wells are evident in a 2015 satellite view of part of La Salle County, Texas. The county is 87% Hispanic, and nearly 30% of its population lives in poverty.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/87725/shale-revolution-as-clear-as-night-and-day">Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Flares are so common in the Eagle Ford shale that they are visible from space. </p>
<p>In our latest study, we used <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b05355">satellite observations</a> and Texas birth records for more than 23,000 births in the region to study connections between flaring and health in pregnant women. We found that women who lived in areas where flaring is common had <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6394">50% higher odds</a> of giving birth prematurely than those with no flaring within three miles of their homes. </p>
<p>Preterm birth can be life-threatening, especially for babies born very early, who typically have difficulty feeding and breathing and require special medical care. Being born prematurely can also cause long-term health problems, including hearing loss, neurological disorders and asthma. </p>
<p>The increased risk we found associated with flaring was similar to the increased risk <a href="http://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181d3ca63">others have seen</a> for women who smoke during pregnancy. This risk fell almost entirely on Latina women, who were exposed to more flaring than white women. In all, about 14% of babies whose mothers lived within three miles of flaring and were exposed to at least 10 flares were born prematurely. </p>
<p>While women in the region also face other stressors related to poverty, health and racism, we think flaring may impact preterm birth for those living closest by exposing them to air pollutants, which <a href="https://med.nyu.edu/departments-institutes/pediatrics/divisions/environmental-pediatrics/research/policy-initiatives/air-pollution-preterm-births">research has shown</a> are associated with preterm births.</p>
<p>Together, our work points to longstanding issues of environmental racism in rural energy extraction communities in the U.S.</p>
<h2>Environmental justice and the urban-rural divide</h2>
<p>Rural America is often singled out by locally unwanted industries. The rural policy scholar <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/env.2009.0034">Celia Carroll Jones put it this way</a>: “For the majority of Americans who live in metropolitan areas, rural dumping becomes a logical choice: Undeveloped land is inexpensive and available, fewer residents will be harmed should containment measures fail, and, most importantly, nuisances and dangers are removed from their own neighborhoods.” </p>
<p>It isn’t just the energy industry. Urban human and industrial solid waste, a byproduct of wastewater treatment plants, is frequently <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1205470">disposed of on rural land</a>. Touted as fertilizer, this sewage sludge contains mixtures of chemical and biological contaminants. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2190/0FJ0-T6HJ-08EM-HWW8">Residents complain</a> of symptoms like mucous membrane irritation, respiratory distress, headaches and skin rashes when sewage sludge is being applied to land. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/es1039425">Decatur, Alabama</a>, where about 20% of the population <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/decaturcityalabama/INC110218">lives in poverty</a>, contaminated sludge was applied to land used for cattle grazing and crops. This resulted in detectable levels of toxic perflourinated compounds in soil, grass, beef and groundwater in the area.</p>
<p>This pattern extends to our food production systems. For example, the <a href="http://www.ncpolicywatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/UNC-Report.pdf">industrialization of hog production</a> has led to the concentration of numerous biological and chemical pollutants that threaten environmental quality. The health impacts are concentrated disproportionately in Black communities in rural eastern North Carolina. Industrial hog operations have been linked to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2005-2812">asthma</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1205109">higher blood pressure</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.18043/ncm.79.5.278">greater risk of premature death</a>. </p>
<p>These examples illustrate a larger pattern of environmental injustice that characterizes relationships between urban areas that create waste and rural areas that receive that waste. </p>
<p>This undermines health in communities that are already at higher risk, as our research has shown. Ultimately, it also undermines progress toward more sustainable energy and food supplies, because the people who use the most energy and agriculture products don’t experience the health impacts of their production and waste.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jill Johnston receives funding from NIEHS. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lara Cushing receives funding from NIEHS and the US EPA.</span></em></p>A study shows that low-income communities and communities of color are bearing the brunt of the energy industry’s pollution in the region. The risks also extend to the unborn.Jill Johnston, Assistant Professor of Preventive Medicine, University of Southern CaliforniaLara Cushing, Assistant Professor of Environmental Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1405752020-07-13T11:53:07Z2020-07-13T11:53:07Z5 ways higher education can be seen as hostile to women of color<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346741/original/file-20200709-87071-l99yke.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Women of color rarely ascend to positions of leadership in higher education.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/portrait-of-young-woman-looking-serious-in-office-royalty-free-image/1140744513?adppopup=true">FangXiaNuo/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Editor’s note: In 2019, Amy Bonomi, a women’s studies scholar, co-edited “<a href="https://titles.cognella.com/women-leading-change-in-academia-9781516548255">Women Leading Change: Breaking the Glass Ceiling, Cliff, and Slipper</a>.” The book examines the perspectives of 23 female leaders on issues of leadership and the challenges of confronting structural racism, bias and discrimination at colleges and universities. Here are five takeaways that Bonomi offers from her book about how higher education can be hostile toward the women of color who serve as college and university leaders.</em></p>
<h2>1. Not reflected in leadership</h2>
<p>Only <a href="https://www.aceacps.org/minority-presidents/">30% of college and university presidents</a> are women. Although nearly 40% of Americans are people of color, according to a <a href="https://www.aceacps.org/minority-presidents/">2017 study</a>, just 5% of college and university presidents are women of color. This 5% is even more striking when you consider how <a href="https://www.chronicle.com/article/Nearly-Half-of-Undergraduates/245692">approximately 45% of undergraduate students</a> in the United States are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/31/us-college-faculty-student-diversity/">students of color</a> (Hispanic: 20%; Black: 14%; and Asian: 7%). </p>
<p>In addition, while top administrative roles, such as chief diversity officer, are <a href="https://www.cupahr.org/wp-content/uploads/surveys/Results/2019-Administrators-Report-Overview.pdf">occupied by a large proportion of Black and Latinx women (52%)</a>, other positions, such as chief financial officer and facilities manager, are overwhelmingly occupied by white men. Taken together, this suggests that women of color tend to be reflected in diversity-related positions and may not be cultivated for other types of leadership positions. </p>
<h2>2. Put on a ‘glass cliff’</h2>
<p>When women of color do occupy leadership positions in higher education, too often they face “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20159315?seq=1">glass cliff</a>” scenarios. That is, they are elevated to leadership roles when the organization is in crisis and their risk of failure is high. For example, Vasti Torres describes in <a href="https://titles.cognella.com/women-leading-change-in-academia-9781516548255">my book</a> how she was handed a memo her first day as dean at the University of South Florida to cut spending by US$2 million. This happened despite her asking for – but not being given – specific information about the budget status during her interviews.</p>
<h2>3. Denied full professorships</h2>
<p>Women of color are underrepresented in the pool of leadership candidates by virtue of not being promoted to full professor. This is the most senior academic position in colleges and universities. <a href="https://www.catalyst.org/research/women-in-academia/">Black and Latinx women</a> hold only 1.6% and 2.1% of full professorships, respectively. This compares to <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/use-the-data">34.3% of full professorships held by women more generally</a>. When considering that <a href="https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=United%20States">Black women represent 15.2% of total women</a> in the U.S., it is even more concerning that they are so invisible at the full professor rank.</p>
<p>Some of the challenges faced by women of color in their rise to full professor can be explained by the “<a href="https://bmcmededuc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12909-015-0290-9">minority tax</a>.” More specifically, in “<a href="https://titles.cognella.com/women-leading-change-in-academia-9781516548255">Women Leading Change</a>,” Dionne Stephens, associate professor of psychology at Florida International University, and Layli Maparyan, professor of Africana Studies at Wellesley College, describe how women of color are frequently asked to take on additional duties in colleges and universities, without compensation.</p>
<p>For example, Patricia A. Matthew, associate professor at Montclair State University, notes how <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2016/11/what-is-faculty-diversity-worth-to-a-university/508334/">women of color are frequently asked</a> to “diversify” campus committees, support students of color and represent the views of a variety of diverse groups across settings. As Dionne Stephens and Layli Maparyan argue, when it comes to advancing to full professor, this work is not “counted” in the same way as publishing or securing grants. </p>
<h2>4. Surrounded by white imagery</h2>
<p>When you walk the halls of colleges and universities, you are likely to see portraits of white men. Similarly, colleges and universities have an abundance of statues in honor of white men, as well as building names and named professorships. Taken as a whole, these symbols of whiteness send a message about what it means to belong in higher education. University of Michigan education professors Vasti Torres and Tabbye Chavous – both women of color – <a href="https://titles.cognella.com/women-leading-change-in-academia-9781516548255">argue how such visual markers and symbols of whiteness</a> reflect overt examples of patronage and historical bias. Ultimately, they argue, these things delegitimize women leaders of color in colleges and universities. </p>
<h2>5. Publicly shamed</h2>
<p>Public shaming of women leaders of color happens. After being hired into a glass cliff scenario as a department chair, Yolanda Flores Niemann, a professor of psychology at the University of North Texas, describes in <a href="https://titles.cognella.com/women-leading-change-in-academia-9781516548255">my book</a> the contentious backlash she faced from men in her department. This came as she proposed more rigorous standards in annual faculty reviews. In response, men in her department organized groups of students to <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvzxxb94">publicly oppose her</a>. Similarly, in the case of Nelia Viveiros, interim vice chancellor for diversity at the University of Colorado Denver, certain perhaps well-meaning university factions questioned Viveiros’ credentials for the diversity role. The questions came despite the fact that Viveiros had more than two decades of direct experience overseeing diversity and equity work in colleges and universities. In Viveiros’ case, several other interim appointments of white women into equivalent leadership roles went unquestioned by the same faculty. </p>
<p>Doing away with hostility – whether blatant or unintended – that women leaders of color face in higher education requires an examination of historical biases that privilege whiteness, and especially male whiteness. In my view, there’s an urgent need for uncomfortable yet critical conversations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140575/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Bonomi has previously received funding from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</span></em></p>Women of color are woefully underrepresented in leadership positions in higher education. What will it take to turn things around?Amy Bonomi, Professor of Human Development & Chair of the Women's Leadership Institute, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1336002020-03-18T01:44:03Z2020-03-18T01:44:03ZAll Latinos don’t vote the same way – their place of origin matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321132/original/file-20200317-60906-s2vsqo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hispanic voters go to the polls for early voting in 2004.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/hispanic-voters-go-to-the-polls-for-early-voting-at-the-news-photo/51536533?adppopup=true">G. De Cardenas/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Joe Biden won <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/17/us/elections/results-florida-president-democrat-primary-election.html">Florida’s 2020 Democratic primary</a>, capturing <a href="https://apnews.com/b9a430d29e1825764f4c83e4211f9e75">a majority of the state’s Latino voters</a>.</p>
<p>Polls have been tracking the Latino vote in Democratic presidential primaries, and many analysts are trying to predict which candidate Latinos might favor in November. Interest in Florida has been especially strong.</p>
<p>Observers commonly speak of “the Latino vote” as if Latinos make up a distinct and unified interest group. This both overstates and understates Latinos’ uniqueness. Latinos are a highly diverse population, beginning with where they and their families are from. For many Latinos, political events that affect their places of origin significantly influence their electoral preferences. </p>
<p>Given the uneven geographic distribution of Latino communities, these differences may be consequential in certain state elections, as seen most clearly in Florida, where Latinos make up 20% of the eligible electorate. </p>
<p>Since Florida is an important swing state, these voters’ choices can make a difference to national election outcomes.</p>
<h2>Breaking down the Latino vote</h2>
<p>As a group, the nation’s <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/">32 million Latino potential voters</a> are somewhat more likely than non-Latinos to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/01/17/latino-democratic-voters-place-high-importance-on-2020-presidential-election">lean Democratic</a>. About 62% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 34% affiliate with or lean to the Republicans.</p>
<p>Their policy preferences align broadly with those of their parties, but the partisan gap tends to be smaller than among U.S. voters as a whole. In <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/20/latino-voters-favor-raising-minimum-wage-government-involvement-in-health-care-stricter-gun-laws/">a 2019 Pew survey</a>, for example, 82% of Latino Democrats and 51% of Latino Republicans believed government “should do more to solve problems.” Among non-Latinos, the corresponding figures were 79% and 22%.</p>
<p>An important way in which Latino voters differ from non-Latinos, and vary among themselves, relates to where they or their forebears came from.</p>
<p>Voters who identify as Latino vary in their places of origin. The ancestors of some lived in North America long before the westward expansion of the United States; Puerto Ricans became U.S. citizens after the Spanish-American War; and millions of others immigrated from nations throughout the Americas and the Caribbean.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/fact-sheet/latinos-in-the-2016-election-florida/">Mexican Americans are the largest group</a>, at about 60% of eligible Latino voters. Puerto Ricans come second, with 14%, followed by Cubans at 4%.</p>
<h2>Cuban Americans and Florida</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/central-american-governments-cant-stop-migration/586726/">our research</a> on the recent wave of migrants from Central America, we highlighted the problems, from economic insecurity to the prevalence of violence, that motivated people to undertake the often-treacherous journey to the United States.</p>
<p>Our present work examines how the voting preferences of some Latino migrants continue to be shaped by political events and conditions “back home,” even decades after leaving. </p>
<p>The persistent power of the place once called home to shape electoral choices is most apparent among two groups, Cuban Americans and Puerto Ricans. Both have large communities in Florida, giving that state a unique demographic profile.</p>
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<p>Florida’s Cuban American voters have long made toppling the communist government of Cuba a priority in presidential and congressional elections. </p>
<p>Unusual among Latinos, Cuban Americans have historically favored Republicans, although this <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/24/after-decades-of-gop-support-cubans-shifting-toward-the-democratic-party/">preference is declining</a>. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/">Still, in 2016, Donald Trump</a> got more than half of Florida’s Cuban American vote, compared to only a quarter of non-Cuban Latino votes. As a rough estimate, about half a million Cuban Americans voted in the Florida election. Trump won the state by only 112,911 votes. </p>
<p>Many Cuban Americans have pressed their elected representatives for more aggressive U.S. policies aimed at ousting both the government of Cuba and the pro-Cuban socialist government of Venezuela. These voters are joined in this by many in the state’s growing Venezuelan community, as well as residents of Colombian and Nicaraguan heritage.</p>
<p>These communities’ influence can be seen in the strong language Florida’s congressional Democrats use to criticize the autocratic governments of communist Cuba and socialist Venezuela. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1231760466776657923"}"></div></p>
<p>In recent decades, Cuban Americans’ attitudes about regime change in Cuba have become more divided. Polls reveal emerging splits between those who left Cuba before 1980 and those who left more recently or were born in the U.S. The <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/23/as-cuban-american-demographics-change-so-do-views-of-cuba/">younger voters and more recent migrants</a> favor a friendlier stance toward Cuba: ending the U.S. embargo, lifting travel restrictions and deepening diplomatic relations with the island.</p>
<p>In a 2019 <a href="https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/2018-fiu-cuba-poll.pdf">Florida International University poll</a> of Cuban American adults in Miami-Dade County, home to almost half the Cuban Americans in the U.S., only 8% identified policy toward Cuba as the top issue influencing their votes in 2018. Domestic policy issues may take precedence, but concern about conditions in Cuba endures.</p>
<h2>Growing presence of Puerto Ricans</h2>
<p>As the role of place begins to change within the Cuban American community, a new politics of place is becoming evident among Puerto Ricans.</p>
<p>After Hurricane Maria devastated the island in 2017, tens of thousands emigrated to the mainland, with at least <a href="https://centropr.hunter.cuny.edu/sites/default/files/data_briefs/Hurricane_maria_1YR.pdf">one-third going to Florida</a> to join the million Puerto Ricans already living there. Puerto Ricans might soon match Cuban Americans among the state’s eligible voters, though not yet in turnout.</p>
<p>Historically viewed as reliable supporters of Democrats, Florida’s Puerto Ricans have begun breaking old patterns. For example, many voted for Republican Rick Scott in his 2018 senatorial bid, a fact partly attributable to the <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/12/04/democrats-hispanic-voters-2020-222751/">multiple visits</a> Scott made as governor to their hurricane-ravaged homeland. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000169-e91a-d015-a36d-eb1bed6e0001">2019 survey</a> of Puerto Rican likely 2020 voters in Florida, more than 90% said it would be important to their vote that a candidate offered “specific solutions for the economic recovery and well-being” of the island.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/320867/original/file-20200316-27692-1p7o6h4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Stickers reading ‘He Votado Hoy,’ or ‘I Voted Today.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Vote-Sticker/621b065f81954312905c8f1582aafc27/2/0">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Final considerations</h2>
<p>The pull of family roots also matters among other Latino communities. And “home” is clearly just one of the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/10/Pew-Research-Center_Latinos-have-Serious-Concerns-About-Their-Place-in-America_2018-10-25.pdf">demographic factors</a> that shape Latinos’ electoral choices. Gender, age, income and education are also influential, as they are with other American ethnic groups.</p>
<p>Moreover, the weight of “home” tends to decline over time. Surveys of people who identify as having Latino heritage have revealed that <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/latinos-in-the-new-millennium/D5A6F4CFAA24B05B741C2A302164B00B/">successive generations</a> report lower levels of attention to politics in their country of origin.</p>
<p>However, to the extent that many Latino voters remain highly motivated by concerns about conditions “back home,” candidates seeking their votes will do well not to ignore this aspect of diversity.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133600/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One way in which Latino voters vary is where they or their forebears came from. In states like Florida, that difference matters.Eliza Willis, Professor of Political Science, Grinnell CollegeJanet A. Seiz, Associate Professor of Economics, Grinnell CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1269082020-01-02T13:42:04Z2020-01-02T13:42:04Z3 big ways that the US will change over the next decade<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302271/original/file-20191118-66921-1lzjtc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. will undergo some significant shifts in the next decade.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/american-flags-patriots-america-fans-concert-335159885?src=6a1e5dc6-a1a3-4075-b286-9b8e8dd44977-1-9">DenisProduction.com/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. has just entered the new decade of the 2020s.</p>
<p>What does our country look like today, and what will it look like 10 years from now, on Jan. 1, 2030? Which demographic groups in the U.S. will grow the most, and which groups will not grow as much, or maybe even decline in the next 10 years? </p>
<p>I <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BWeHM5kAAAAJ&hl=en">am a demographer</a> and I have examined population data from the U.S. Census Bureau and from the Population Division of the United Nations. </p>
<p>Projections show that whites will decline; the number of old people will increase; and racial minorities, mainly Hispanics, will grow the most, making them the main engine of demographic change in the U.S. for the next 10 years and beyond. </p>
<h2>1. There will be more of us</h2>
<p><a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf">The U.S. population today</a>, at the start of 2020, numbers just over 331 million people. </p>
<p>The U.S. is the third largest country in the world, outnumbered only by the two demographic billionaires, China and India, at just over 1.4 billion and just under 1.4 billion, respectively. </p>
<p>Ten years from now, the U.S. population will have almost 350 million people. China and India will still be bigger, but India with 1.5 billion people will now be larger than China, with 1.46 billion.</p>
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<h2>2. The population will get older.</h2>
<p>The U.S. is getting older and it’s <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf">going to keep getting older</a>.</p>
<p>Today, there are over 74.1 million people under age 18 in the U.S. There are 56.4 million people age 65 and older. </p>
<p>Ten years from now, there will almost be as many old folks as there are young ones. The numbers of young people will have grown just a little to 76.3 million, but the numbers of old people will have increased a lot – to 74.1 million. A lot of these new elderly will be baby boomers. </p>
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<p>For example, take the really old folks – people over the age of 100. How many centenarians are in the U.S. population today and how many are there likely to be 10 years from now? </p>
<p><a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030264918">According to demographers at the U.S. Census Bureau</a>, the number of centenarians in the U.S. grew from over 53,000 in 2010 to over 90,000 in 2020. By 2030, there will most likely be over 130,000 centenarians in the U.S.</p>
<p>But this increase of centenarians by 2030 is only a small indication of their growth in later decades. In the year of 2046, the first group of surviving baby boomers will reach 100 years, and that’s when U.S. centenarians will really start to grow. By 2060 there will be over 603,000. That’s a <em>lot</em> of really old people.</p>
<p>I sometimes ask my undergraduate students how many of them have ever actually seen a person 100 years old or older. In my classes of 140 or more students, no more than maybe six raise their hands. Lots more college students will be raising their hands when they are asked that question in 2060.</p>
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<h2>3. Racial proportions will shift.</h2>
<p>In 2020, non-Hispanic white people, hereafter called whites, are still the majority race in the U.S., representing 59.7% of the U.S. population. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-white-majority-will-soon-disappear-forever-115894">In my research with the demographer Rogelio Saenz</a>, we have shown that the white share of the U.S. population has been dropping since 1950 and it will continue to go down.</p>
<p>Today, after whites, the Hispanic population is the next biggest group at 18.7% of the U.S., followed by blacks and Asians.</p>
<p>What will the country <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popproj/2017-summary-tables.html">look like racially in 2030</a>? Whites will have dropped to 55.8% of the population, and Hispanics will have grown to 21.1%. The percentage of black and Asian Americans will also grow significantly.</p>
<p>So between now and 2030, whites as a proportion of the population will get smaller, and the minority race groups will all keep getting bigger. </p>
<p>Eventually, whites will become a minority, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/03/14/the-us-will-become-minority-white-in-2045-census-projects">dropping below 50% of the U.S. population in around the year of 2045</a>. </p>
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<p>However, on the first day of 2020, whites under age 18 were already in the minority. Among all the young people now in the U.S., there are more minority young people than there are white young people.</p>
<p>Among old people age 65 and over, whites are still in the majority. Indeed white old people, compared to minority old people, will continue to be in the majority until some years after 2060.</p>
<p>Hispanics and the other racial minorities will be the country’s main demographic engine of population change in future years; this is the most significant demographic change Americans will see. </p>
<p>I’ve shown above how much older the U.S. population has become and will become in the years ahead. Were it not for the racial minorities countering this aging of the U.S. population, the U.S. by 2030 and later would have become even older than it is today and will be in 2030.</p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dudley L. Poston Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The number of old people will increase, while the proportion of white Americans will continue to fall.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1282042019-12-10T13:55:58Z2019-12-10T13:55:58ZNew studies show discrimination widely reported by women, people of color and LGBTQ adults<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305260/original/file-20191204-70144-1utq93k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. public opinion is divided over who faces discrimination.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/frustrated-excluded-outstand-african-american-man-1079701316?src=9fee6da8-7f09-4e0d-a1d1-c79369b8c1c5-1-15">fizkes/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In recent years, U.S. public opinion has been divided about the existence and seriousness of <a href="http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2017/08/29102356/PewResearchCenter_8-29-2017_Racism_topline_for_release.pdf">racism</a>, <a href="https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/August-2018-Topline-1.pdf">sexism</a> and other forms of discrimination.</p>
<p>Amid <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/06/27/on-views-of-race-and-inequality-blacks-and-whites-are-worlds-apart/">growing racial divides in civil</a> and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/29/views-of-racism-as-a-major-problem-increase-sharply-especially-among-democrats/">political views</a>, our research team at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, in partnership with NPR and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, asked 3,453 adults about their experiences of discrimination. </p>
<p>We surveyed adults who identified as members of six groups often underrepresented in public opinion research: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13220">blacks</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13216">Latinos</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13224">Native Americans</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13225">Asian Americans</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13217">women</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13229">LGBTQ adults</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14756773/2019/54/S2">Our studies, published in December</a>, show that people from these groups report high levels of discrimination from both institutions and other people. </p>
<h2>Widespread reported discrimination</h2>
<p>The articles were based <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13226">on a survey</a> conducted via telephone from Jan. 26 to April 9, 2017, among a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults.</p>
<p>We asked people if they had ever experienced specific forms of discrimination, harassment or unfair treatment because they are black, Latino, Native American, Asian American, a woman, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender or queer.</p>
<p>Discrimination was commonly reported across many areas of life, including in the workplace, at the doctor and with the police. Slurs, harassment and violence were also widely reported.</p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13220">half of black adults</a> say they have personally experienced racial discrimination when interacting with the police, while 22% have avoided seeking health care for themselves or family members due to anticipated discrimination. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13224">Nearly 4 in 10 Native Americans</a> say they or family members have experienced racial violence. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13216">One in 3 Latinos</a> say they have experienced discrimination when applying for jobs. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13225">1 in 4 Asian Americans</a> say they have been discriminated against when trying to obtain housing. </p>
<p>Among women, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13217">more than 4 in 10 say they have experienced</a> gender discrimination in the workplace when it comes to getting equal pay or promotions. </p>
<p>And <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.13229">a majority of LGBTQ adults</a> say they or LGBTQ friends or family members have been threatened or harassed.</p>
<p>Although high rates of reported discrimination may not be surprising to some, this has rarely been documented by national survey research among some of these populations who are often <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/hardtosurvey-populations/probability-sampling-methods-for-hardtosample-populations/DF7E1268024A7729261CE63F380C6125">difficult to reach</a> due to their small sizes, geographic dispersion or in the case of LGBTQ adults, stigmatization.</p>
<p><iframe id="pBSo1" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pBSo1/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>National debate on discrimination</h2>
<p>Polling has documented <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/06/27/on-views-of-race-and-inequality-blacks-and-whites-are-worlds-apart/">large gaps between whites and minorities</a> over their general beliefs about racial and ethnic discrimination in America. </p>
<p>There are similar divisions in beliefs about whether discrimination exists against <a href="https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/August-2018-Topline-1.pdf">women and LGBTQ adults</a>. For example, 52% of the public does not believe there is a lot of discrimination against women in the United States today, while 45% does.</p>
<p>The question over whether some minorities face serious discrimination, and the divide in public opinion over its answer, are critical to public debates affecting federal anti-discrimination policies. For example, the Trump administration has begun <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/08/trump-obama-racial-bias-522940">reversing several Obama-era anti-discrimination policies</a> on health care, college admissions, fair housing and lending. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/does-the-civil-rights-act-protect-lgbt-workers-the-supreme-court-is-about-to-decide-125290">The Supreme Court is also expected to rule in 2020</a> on extending workplace anti-discrimination laws to protect LGBTQ employees.</p>
<h2>The path forward</h2>
<p>Our findings show that, despite divided public perceptions to the contrary, reported discrimination against blacks, Latinos, Asian Americans, Native Americans, women and LGBTQ adults is prevalent in the United States today.</p>
<p>Discrimination places a huge and often unseen burden on the country that is experienced in different ways by different groups and in different areas of life. Given our findings, we believe greater public policy efforts are needed to help end these common discriminatory behaviors in day-to-day life, as well as in institutions and policies. </p>
<p>As a path forward, in 2014, a national coalition representing 200 civil and human rights groups <a href="https://tbinternet.ohchr.org/Treaties/CERD/Shared%20Documents/USA/INT_CERD_NGO_USA_17654_E.pdf">detailed major policy opportunities to eliminate discrimination against minorities</a> in key areas that affect their lives, including health care, criminal justice and housing.</p>
<p>Working to end discrimination presents a challenge for leaders at all levels. Leaders of institutions can both act and educate at the institutional level, not only about the existence and pervasive nature of discrimination, but also about its impacts on the country, communities, individuals and their families. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128204/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This work was supported by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The views expressed are solely those of the authors, and no official endorsement by the sponsor is intended or should be inferred.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span> </span></em></p>Marginalized groups said that they had experienced discrimination at the workplace, at the doctor and with the police.Mary G. Findling, Research Associate at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard UniversityJohn M. Benson, Research Scientist, Harvard UniversityRobert J. Blendon, Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1173712019-07-02T11:13:53Z2019-07-02T11:13:53ZFlying colors: Researcher reveals hidden world through the eyes of butterflies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279431/original/file-20190613-32317-1gd8v1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Adriana Briscoe, in the greenhouse with a blue morpho, University of California, Irvine, June 2019</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Koseki - UCI School of Biological Sciences</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>An award-winning scientist and professor of evolutionary biology, Adriana Briscoe studies <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=brdXz7oAAAAJ&hl=en">the evolution of vision in butterflies</a> and how they see color. Briscoe is currently working on her first book, which is a memoir about, what else? Butterflies. A descendant of Mexican immigrants who fled the Mexican Revolution at the turn of the century and settled in San Bernardino, California, Briscoe has called for more Latino teachers in science. Below is an edited version of an interview with her that explains her work, roots, and why the US needs more Latino STEM teachers.</em></p>
<p><strong>You won <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaleBM6i-YQ">an award</a> once for distinguished research. What makes your research or instruction distinguished?</strong></p>
<p>I am fascinated by the sensory world of animals, which is both similar and different from our world. Butterflies can migrate using <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0896627305002369">ultraviolet polarized light</a>, a feature of sunlight we can’t see, and by sensing the earth’s magnetic fields. They can also see colors that we cannot. I often wonder, why is the natural world so colorful? Are all color patterns meaningful to the animals that bear them? Or are some colors meant to help the animals adapt to their thermal environment? I take an interdisciplinary approach to the study of animal coloration and vision.</p>
<p><strong>What’s the most interesting science you’ve done in the last five years?</strong></p>
<p>Butterflies cannot tell us directly what colors they recognize so I’ve trained them <a href="http://visiongene.bio.uci.edu/Adriana_Briscoe/Publications_files/Movie1.mov.qt">to show me what colors they can see</a>. People can train a butterfly to fly toward a colored light if you reward it with sugar water. After several bouts of training, if you give a hungry butterfly a choice between two colored lights, it often will go toward the light associated with the sugar water. Seeing a butterfly you’ve trained fly towards the right light is a bit electrifying. Their behavior tells you something about their sensory world – what colors do and do not matter to them, what colors they can and cannot see. Some butterflies have red-green color vision, others <a href="https://jeb.biologists.org/content/209/10/1944.short">are red-green color blind</a>, like some humans. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280333/original/file-20190619-171208-fewp7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280333/original/file-20190619-171208-fewp7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280333/original/file-20190619-171208-fewp7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280333/original/file-20190619-171208-fewp7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280333/original/file-20190619-171208-fewp7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280333/original/file-20190619-171208-fewp7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280333/original/file-20190619-171208-fewp7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adriana Briscoe holding a <em>Morpho peleides</em> butterfly, also known as a blue morpho, in the greenhouse at the University of California, Irvine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Koseki - UCI School of Biological Sciences</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>What prompted you to get into teaching?</strong></p>
<p>I come from a family of Mexican American teachers. Growing up, I heard stories about how my grandmother and mother had to fight for their education. In 1937 my maternal grandmother, Consuelo Lozano, a daughter of Mexican immigrants, was the <a href="https://www.newspapers.com/image/47300666/">only Spanish-named woman</a> attending Colton High in San Bernardino County, California to graduate. Two years later, she married my grandfather, who had dropped out of high school to pick oranges during the Great Depression.</p>
<p>During World War II my grandmother <a href="https://www.newspapers.com/image/48927081/">inspected airplanes</a> at the San Bernardino Army Air Field. My mother, Loretta Mejía, was the only Spanish-named <a href="https://www.newspapers.com/image/53998403/">woman from San Bernardino County, the largest county</a> in the U.S., to graduate from the University of California, Riverside in 1965, which at the time had more than 3100 students.</p>
<p>From the ages of six to nine, I watched my grandmother, who went back to school to earn her teaching degree in her 60s, study at home with other student teachers. These women were part of the <a href="https://www.newspapers.com/image/62441653/">largest group of bilingual teachers</a> to graduate at one time in the U.S. Both my mother and my grandmother became bilingual elementary school teachers. Watching my mother prepare lessons to help kids learn how to read night after night, imbued me with a deep respect for the work that teachers do.</p>
<p><strong>You’ve spoken of the need for <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/116/hr2528/text">government action</a> to get more Latino individuals to teach science. Why do we need government intervention to make this happen?</strong></p>
<p>Many Latinos in the U.S. live in low-income communities like the town where I grew up. Food insecurity <a href="https://www.scpr.org/programs/take-two/2019/06/17/19829/">is widespread among college students</a>. Government intervention is especially needed to increase the number of STEM workers and educators. Most students can’t afford to work as unpaid interns in laboratories, yet gaining experience in the lab is key to becoming a scientist. Doing science and teaching science are costly enterprises. For every $100,000 I spend on students, I have to obtain a grant of $150,000 due to indirect costs.</p>
<p>We need more highly trained teachers and training is expensive. I was able to become a scientist because by the time I applied to college, my formerly working class parents had elevated their economic status through education and could afford to pay for my undergraduate tuition at Stanford. When it came time to go to graduate school, private foundations such as the Howard Hughes Medical Institute and the Ford Foundation paid my way and the U.S. National Science Foundation paid for my research.</p>
<p>Glenda Flores has noted in her award-winning book “<a href="https://nyupress.org/9781479813537/latina-teachers/">Latina Teachers</a>” that affirmative action policies primarily benefit white women and have led to an increase in the proportion of white women in professions like medicine and law. Teaching and nursing, professions previously occupied mostly by white women, have become more open to Latino teachers and teachers of color. The number of Latino teachers is increasing. In California, <a href="https://www.cde.ca.gov/ds/sd/cb/ceffingertipfacts.asp">20.2%</a> of K-12 teachers are Latino, although the number that are U.S. born is not entirely clear. My research with Dylan Rainbow suggests the percent of Latino science and math public school teachers in California is currently <a href="https://www.cde.ca.gov/ds/sd/df/index.asp">3%</a>, a number we clearly need to work on.</p>
<p><strong><em>Howard Hughes Medical Institute and the Ford Foundation were early supporters of The Conversation US.</em></strong></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117371/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adriana Briscoe has received funding from the National Science Foundation, the Ford Foundation, and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. </span></em></p>A scientist explains how she got a glimpse into the secret world of butterflies and her hopes of encouraging more Latinos to enter the field of science.Adriana Briscoe, Professor of Biology, University of California, IrvineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1195672019-06-28T18:36:03Z2019-06-28T18:36:03ZWhy the Supreme Court asked for an explanation of the 2020 census citizenship question<p>Immediately before the Supreme Court’s summer recess each year, it releases decisions in some of its most challenging and significant cases. </p>
<p>This year was no different. </p>
<p>On June 27, the last day of the term, the Supreme Court decided <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/department-of-commerce-v-new-york/">Department of Commerce v. New York</a>, a case exploring legal issues surrounding the addition of the question, “Is this person a citizen of the United States?,” on the 2020 census. </p>
<p>The decision is of great practical importance, as the final numbers generated by the census will affect representation in Congress, allocation of federal dollars and much more. The political implications of the citizenship question made the case politically volatile and controversial.</p>
<p>In an opinion by Chief Justice Roberts, the court chose not to accept
what may well be the Trump administration’s pretext for the citizenship question to mask partisan political and discriminatory motives. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/author/kevinjohnson/">scholar of</a> <a href="https://law.ucdavis.edu/faculty/johnson/">immigration law and civil rights</a>, I was not surprised by the outcome. The court decided the case in a way that will help maintain its legitimacy in the future. </p>
<h2>Census influence</h2>
<p>Because the census is conducted only once every 10 years, it can affect close to a generation of policies. </p>
<p>By influencing electoral districting, the census can affect political representation in Congress, as well as the relative numbers in Congress from the two major political parties. That, in turn, affects how federal money is spent and which groups and programs are preferred or disfavored. Put simply, the census has dramatic political impacts on the entire nation.</p>
<p>In 2018, Wilbur Ross, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce under President Trump, announced that the Bureau of the Census intended to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/04/23/630562915/see-200-years-of-twists-and-turns-of-census-citizenship-questions">add a question about U.S. citizenship</a> in the form sent to all households in the 2020 census. The proposed question would in fact be a readdition, because some form of that question had been in census questionnaires in the past. </p>
<p>The Trump administration said that the citizenship question would improve enforcement of the Voting Rights Act, which protects the voting rights of citizens. However, opponents claimed that the question was motivated by partisan political considerations, including voter suppression and an effort to systematically undercount immigrants, particularly Hispanics.</p>
<p>In an ideal world, a count of noncitizens could be beneficial to policymakers and researchers. </p>
<p>For example, a city could use the number to establish a need for resources to facilitate naturalization and other immigrant services. States with large immigrant populations would know about how much federal funding was needed to cover immigrants’ costs incurred in public education and English as a second language courses.</p>
<p>However, civil rights groups and immigrant rights activists were concerned that, especially with President Trump at the helm, a citizenship question would <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/why-census-asking-about-citizenship-such-problem">discourage immigrants from participating in the census</a>, for fear that answering the question truthfully might lead to their removal from the country by the very administration collecting the data.</p>
<p>If that turned out to be true, immigrants might well be chilled from participating in the census. The result would be <a href="https://theconversation.com/adding-a-citizenship-question-to-the-2020-census-would-cost-some-states-their-congressional-seats-113166">an inaccurate – and low – count of immigrants</a>.</p>
<h2>The decision</h2>
<p>The court held that the proposed citizenship question does not violate the Constitution, which vests broad discretion in the U.S. government in deciding how to conduct the census. </p>
<p>They also ruled that Ross’ decision did not violate the Administrative Procedure Act. This act requires that certain procedures be followed in administrative decisions and that agency officials offer reasoned and rational explanations for their decisions. </p>
<p>However, Roberts, in a part of the opinion joined by Justices Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan, ruled that the Department of Commerce needed to provide further explanation for adding the question. The court said that the Department of Commerce’s claim that the citizenship question was solely designed to help Voting Right Act enforcement seemed “contrived.” </p>
<p>The chief justice further wrote that, “Our review is deferential, but we are ‘not required to exhibit a naivete from which ordinary citizens are free,’” quoting legendary Judge Henry Friendly.</p>
<p>Some court observers were surprised by the outcome. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/04/argument-analysis-divided-court-seems-ready-to-uphold-citizenship-question-on-2020-census/">After oral argument in April</a>, some had predicted that five justices favored the citizenship question and that <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/04/judicial-enumeration-amy-howe-and-kimberly-robinson-count-five-justices-for-the-citizenship-question-in-department-of-commerce-v-new-york/">the court would allow the question</a> for the 2020 census. </p>
<p>However, in May, new evidence came to light that that the citizenship question was adopted for <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/05/challengers-in-census-case-notify-justices-about-new-evidence/">reasons other than enforcing the Voting Rights Act</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/6/12/18663009/census-citizenship-question-congress">Emails show that</a>, for months, Wilbur Ross had inquired about adding a citizenship question, asking around to see if it was a popular idea. Commerce Department officials had tried to get other agencies involved to “clear certain legal thresholds” to ask the question. As almost an afterthought, Ross and the Department of Commerce asked the Department of Justice to send them a letter providing the Voting Rights Act rationale for the citizenship question. </p>
<p>None of this evidence tends to support the conclusion that enforcing the Voting Rights Act was the true reason that the Department of Commerce sought to add a citizenship question to Census 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/281816/original/file-20190628-94720-67pr3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A citizenship question could discourage immigrants from participating in the 2020 census.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/new-york-nyusajanuary-12-2010-sample-1379490593?src=pGMg0x6R-kjZ-OToYS9kSQ-1-4&studio=1">rblfmr/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Supreme Court’s legitimacy</h2>
<p>As former New York Times Supreme Court reporter and Yale lecturer Linda Greenhouse has written, Roberts is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/opinion/supreme-court-census-roberts.html">concerned with the perceived legitimacy of the court</a>. </p>
<p>Chief Justice Roberts has gone so far as to criticize President Trump for criticizing an “Obama judge.” <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/21/supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts-calls-out-trump-for-his-attack-on-a-judge-1011203">In a November 2018 statement</a> virtually unheard of from a chief justice, Roberts said “We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges … What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them. That independent judiciary is something we should all be thankful for.” The chief was defending the independence – and in effect the very legitimacy – of the federal courts, which he understood to be under attack by the president.</p>
<p>Given the weak justification for the citizenship question, rubber-stamping the citizenship question without further inquiry could well have been a stain on the court’s legitimacy. </p>
<p>Just days before the Supreme Court handed down the decision in the census case, an appellate court had opened the door for further investigation into <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/06/government-responds-in-census-case-4th-circuit-remands-maryland-case-for-more-fact-finding/">whether anti-Hispanic animus played a role</a> in the secretary’s decision to include the citizenship question. </p>
<p>This is a serious charge. To allow the citizenship question to be added to the census, in light of uninvestigated claims of anti-Hispanic animus and in the face of unquestionable anti-Hispanic impacts, could undermine the public trust in – and the very legitimacy of – the Supreme Court. </p>
<p>It has historically been challenging to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/06/04/728034176/2020-census-could-lead-to-worst-undercount-of-black-latinx-people-in-30-yearsoop">facilitate immigrant participation in the census</a>. In immigrant communities, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/5/17071648/impact-trump-immigration-policy-children">fear of government</a> has increased during the Trump administration. Indeed, just in the last few weeks, Trump threatened <a href="https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/immigration/2019/06/trump-delays-immigration-raids-giving-democrats-two-weeks-to-change-asylum-laws-.html">an imminent mass removal campaign</a>, only to temporarily halt the effort at the eleventh hour. </p>
<p>The court might well have learned a lesson from its decision to uphold the travel ban last year, also on the last day of the term. In <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2017/17-965">Trump v. Hawaii</a>, a 5-4 majority in an opinion by Chief Justice Roberts overlooked the evidence of the Trump administration’s anti-Muslim intent in adopting the ban and upheld it based on national security grounds. <a href="https://law.stanford.edu/2018/06/26/trump-v-hawaii-a-roadmap-for-new-racial-origin-quotas/">The decision was widely criticized</a> by scholars and civil rights and immigrant advocates as authorizing discrimination.</p>
<p>Time will tell how the Trump administration proceeds from here. However, it would appear that a rational – not a “contrived” – explanation would be required.</p>
<h2>The legal rationale</h2>
<p>The court’s decision, for the most part, does not state explicitly – which would be unprecedented – that it sought to protect its legitimacy. And it avoids going too far in criticizing the decision to use the citizenship question. </p>
<p>Indeed, the court found that the decision to include the question was not “arbitrary and capricious” in violation of the law. It simply said that the Department of Commerce’s explanation was not convincing and a rational – not a “contrived” – explanation would be required.</p>
<p>It is telling that Roberts, who is keenly concerned about the court’s legitimacy, sided with the liberal justices in order to send the case back to the agency. </p>
<p>Roberts, who famously said during his confirmation hearings that <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/09/12/roberts.statement/">a judge’s job is to call “balls and strikes,”</a> resists the notion that the Supreme Court is a political institution – and did so, I believe, with this decision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The political implications of the citizenship question made this case politically volatile and controversial – even for the Supreme Court.Kevin Johnson, Dean and Professor of Public Interest Law and Chicana/o Studies, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1158942019-04-30T10:45:05Z2019-04-30T10:45:05ZThe US white majority will soon disappear forever<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270826/original/file-20190424-121241-qa26t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The non-Hispanic white population is not growing as quickly as other groups in the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/happy-parents-sitting-on-sofa-looking-1056238637?src=1F_esRO-puY2h0O8sBzQwQ-1-86">Lightfield Studios/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the settlement of Jamestown in 1607 and the start of the Colonial period, the U.S. has been predominantly white. </p>
<p>But the white share of the U.S. population has been dropping, from a little under 90% in 1950 to 60% in 2018. It will likely drop below 50% in another 25 years.</p>
<p>White nationalists want America to be white again. But this will never happen. America is on its way to becoming predominantly nonwhite.</p>
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<h2>Who is white?</h2>
<p>The U.S. federal government uses two questions to measure a person’s race and ethnicity. One asks if the person is of Hispanic origin, and the other asks about the person’s race. </p>
<p>A person is <a href="http://www.niussp.org/article/think-race-and-ethnicity-are-permanent-think-again-surprise/">defined as white</a> if he or she identifies as being only white and non-Hispanic. <a href="http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/05/17/explaining-why-minority-births-now-outnumber-white-births/">A minority, or nonwhite, person</a> is anyone who is not solely non-Hispanic white. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271048/original/file-20190425-121258-etg9bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271048/original/file-20190425-121258-etg9bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271048/original/file-20190425-121258-etg9bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=870&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271048/original/file-20190425-121258-etg9bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=870&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271048/original/file-20190425-121258-etg9bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=870&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271048/original/file-20190425-121258-etg9bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1093&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271048/original/file-20190425-121258-etg9bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1093&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271048/original/file-20190425-121258-etg9bp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1093&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A planned question for the 2020 census.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/2020/operations/planned-questions-2020-acs.pdf">U.S. Census Bureau</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whites were not the first people to settle in what is now the U.S. The first immigrants were a people known today as American Indians and Alaskan natives, also commonly referred to as Native Americans. They arrived in North America around 14,000 years ago. </p>
<p>When Christopher Columbus arrived in America in 1492, there were around 10 million American Indians living in the lands north of Mexico. But by the 1800s their numbers had dwindled to about 1 million. They are now the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/population-and-society/D2A98883FE1D04C2D0C0FAF09F211746">smallest race group</a> in the U.S. </p>
<p>The first sizable stream of immigrants to what is now the U.S. were whites from England. Their arrival at Plymouth in 1620 in search of religious freedom marked the start of large waves of whites coming to this land. </p>
<p>When the U.S. was established as a country in 1776, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/population-and-society/D2A98883FE1D04C2D0C0FAF09F211746">whites comprised roughly 80%</a> of the population. The white share rose to 90% in 1920, where it stayed until 1950. </p>
<h2>Declining numbers</h2>
<p>The proportion of whites in the U.S. population started to decline in 1950. It fell to gradually over the years, eventually reaching just over 60% in 2018 – the lowest percentage ever recorded. </p>
<p>Although the majority of the U.S. population today is still white, nonwhites account for more than half of the populations of Hawaii, the District of Columbia, California, New Mexico, Texas and Nevada. And, in the next 10 to 15 years, these half dozen “majority-minority” states will likely be joined by as many as eight other states where whites now make up less than 60% of the population. </p>
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<p>Census Bureau projections show that the U.S. population will be <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf">“majority-minority”</a> sometime between 2040 and 2050. Our research suggests that this will happen around 2044. Indeed, in 2020, there are projected to be <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=PEP_2016_PEPASR6H&prodType=table">more nonwhite children than white children</a> in the U.S.</p>
<p>The nonwhite population is growing more rapidly than the white population. Minorities accounted for 92% of the U.S. population growth between 2010 and 2018, with Latinos comprising just under half of the nation’s overall growth.</p>
<h2>Behind the trends</h2>
<p>Why are the numbers of white people declining, and why are nonwhite numbers increasing? The answer is basic demography: births, deaths and immigration. </p>
<p>White women have <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/population-and-society/D2A98883FE1D04C2D0C0FAF09F211746">an average of 1.7 children</a> over their lifetimes, while Latina women average 2.2. The total fertility rates of blacks, Asians and American Indians are in between. So whites have fewer births than all nonwhite groups. </p>
<p>There are also big differences in age structure. Sixty-two percent of Latinas 15 years of age or older are <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=PEP_2016_PEPASR6H&prodType=table">of childbearing age</a>. Only 42% of white women fall into this group. Latinos also have lower mortality rates than whites. Demographers call this the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-32910129">“epidemiological paradox.”</a></p>
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<p>In 2015, for the first time, there were more white deaths in the U.S. than white births. Indeed, as of 2016, in 26 states, <a href="https://apl.wisc.edu/data-briefs/natural-decrease-18">whites were dying faster</a> than they were being born. The states with more white deaths than white births include California, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan.</p>
<p>How about immigration to the U.S.? Of the more than 43 million foreign-born people living in the U.S. in 2015, 82% originated in Latin America and Asia. Only 11% were born in Europe. So whites don’t increase their representation in the U.S. via immigration.</p>
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<h2>The future of whiteness</h2>
<p>The aging white population, alongside a more youthful minority population, especially in the case of Latinos, will result in the U.S. becoming a majority-minority country in around 2044. </p>
<p>The demographic shift in the U.S. has resulted in many whites <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2018/04/race-rising-anxiety-white-america/">proclaiming that they are losing their country</a>, and that they already are or will soon become a minority group. </p>
<p>In her <a href="https://thenewpress.com/books/strangers-their-own-land">research on working-class whites in rural Louisiana</a>, sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild observes that many whites feel frustrated and betrayed, like they are now strangers in their own land. In Trump, they saw a white man who brought them together to take their country back. Hochschild points out that at a Trump campaign rally, whites held signs with slogans such as “TRUMP: MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” and “SILENT MAJORITY STANDS WITH TRUMP.” </p>
<p>The decline of the white share of the U.S. population could result in <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442276239/Racism-without-Racists-Color-Blind-Racism-and-the-Persistence-of-Racial-Inequality-in-America-Fifth-Edition">the shifting of racial boundaries</a> to assign whiteness to some people of color so as to bolster the white numbers. </p>
<p>This has happened before. Groups that were initially seen as very different from whites, such as <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/I/bo3632115.html">the Irish and Italians</a>, once sought to distance themselves from blacks, and eventually were <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/david-r-roediger/working-toward-whiteness/9781541673472/">accepted as white</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, although persons of Mexican origin largely identified racially as white, in the 1930 census “Mexican” was used as a racial category, at a time when there was heightened hostility against Mexicans due to their growing population size and the Great Depression.</p>
<p>But any future changes cannot override demography. The U.S. will never be a white country again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115894/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By 2050, the US will be a ‘majority-minority’ country, with white non-Hispanics making up less than half of the total population.Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M UniversityRogelio Sáenz, Professor of Demography, The University of Texas at San AntonioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1147212019-04-16T10:45:29Z2019-04-16T10:45:29ZHow Hispanics really feel about Trump<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/268007/original/file-20190408-2924-1pnui3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hispanic voters are not a monolith.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/voted-stickers-being-passed-out-people-576817645?src=TzJAD7E3r1i-KH-Y2RpIDg-1-38">Baiterek Media/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the first time in history, Hispanic voters are expected to be the largest minority group in the 2020 electorate, <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/">according to the Pew Research Center</a>. </p>
<p>With his reelection on the line, it’s no surprise that President Donald Trump is publicly courting Hispanics. In fact, in late January, he <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1086987568074424320">touted a poll</a> he claimed showed his support among Hispanics had risen from 19% to 50%, due to his immigration policies. </p>
<p>However, these rosy statistics are misleading, since the poll <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-claim-that-he-has-a-50-percent-approval-rating-among-latinos">was not designed</a> to gauge Hispanic voters’ opinions. It did not poll many Hispanics and did not ask questions in both English and Spanish.</p>
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<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=grp148kAAAAJ&hl=en">researchers</a> <a href="https://gvpt.umd.edu/facultyprofile/telhami/shibley">who</a> regularly examine public opinion, we know it’s a stretch to conclude that half of Hispanics approve of Trump, let alone suggest that a majority back his proposed immigration policies.</p>
<p>However, given their potential electoral impact, it is important to understand how Hispanics really feel about President Trump and how their opinions vary across party lines. We have done the work to try to answer these questions.</p>
<h2>Hispanics on Trump</h2>
<p>We analyzed the results of a <a href="https://criticalissues.umd.edu/sites/criticalissues.umd.edu/files/umcip_hispanic_questionnaire_article_final.pdf">University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll</a> fielded by Nielsen Scarborough from Oct. 24 to Nov. 16, 2018. The survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 600 Hispanics, and it asked questions in both English and Spanish. </p>
<p>Simultaneously, we also fielded a national poll of 1,300 respondents representing all Americans. That allowed us to confidently analyze Hispanics’ opinions and compare them to other Americans. </p>
<p>Here’s what we found. </p>
<p>No, most Hispanic voters don’t back Trump and his policies. In fact, Hispanics oppose his immigration policies in larger numbers than the rest of the population.</p>
<p>For example, right before the 2018 midterm election, we asked respondents to identify the most important factor in their vote choice. Among Hispanics, the most popular choice was “a vote against President Trump and his agenda,” with 39% of Hispanics selecting this option, compared to 32% of non-Hispanics. </p>
<p>However, Hispanic preferences do diverge across partisan lines. Over half of Hispanics who aren’t Republicans said “a vote against President Trump and his agenda” was their main reason for voting. Conversely, 45% of Hispanic Republicans chose “a vote to support President Trump and his agenda” as the most important reason for their vote – a significant number, but still lower than the number of non-Hispanic Republicans who said the same.</p>
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<h2>Thoughts on immigration</h2>
<p>Attitudes toward the president’s immigration policies were also striking. </p>
<p>We asked respondents, “Would you say immigration helps the U.S. more than it hurts it, or immigration hurts the U.S. more than it helps it?” Just over half of Hispanics said that immigration helps the U.S. more than it hurts it. Meanwhile, 35% of non-Hispanics said the same. </p>
<p>On the question of immigrants who immigrated illegally, more than two-thirds of Hispanic respondents reported that “illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and obtain citizenship,” compared to just 54% of non-Hispanics. Hispanics are also much less likely to believe that undocumented immigrants commit more crimes than American citizens. </p>
<p>We asked respondents about their opinions regarding the Trump administration’s policy of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/6/11/17443198/children-immigrant-families-separated-parents">separating children from their parents at the border</a>. Only 16% of Hispanics see this policy as acceptable, compared to 25% of non-Hispanics.</p>
<p>Hispanics are not monolithic. When it comes to immigration, they are divided strongly across partisan lines. </p>
<p>For example, 57% of Hispanic non-Republicans say that immigration helps the U.S. Only 34% of Hispanic Republicans say the same. </p>
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<p>What’s more, Hispanic non-Republicans are almost twice as likely as Hispanic Republicans to say that “illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and obtain citizenship.”</p>
<p>However, Hispanic Republicans are still more likely to take positions that are pro-immigration than Republicans who aren’t Hispanic. For example, 40% of Hispanic Republicans agree that “illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and obtain citizenship.” The same is true for just 29% of Republicans who aren’t Hispanic.</p>
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<h2>Looking ahead to 2020</h2>
<p>Even if Trump were able to increase his support among Hispanic Republicans, this would not be enough to secure 50% approval of all Hispanic voters. </p>
<p>That’s because in our poll, a majority of Hispanics align themselves with the Democratic Party. Roughly one-quarter of Hispanics identify as Republican. </p>
<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/10/25/hispanic-voters-and-the-2018-midterm-elections/">a poll conducted by the Pew Research Center</a> in October 2018 found that 62 percent of Hispanics identify as Democrats. </p>
<p>These findings confirm that Hispanics have relatively negative attitudes towards President Trump and his immigration policies. </p>
<p>It’s hard for us to see a path for Trump to be competitive among Hispanics in the 2020 election without reaching across partisan lines, something that we believe is unlikely to happen. Despite the partisan divide among Hispanics, Trump’s positions on immigration, overall, work against him with this group.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114721/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stella Rouse has received funding from the National Science Foundation. She is currently a Luce Public Fellow with the Public Religion Research Institute.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shibley Telhami does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hispanics oppose Trump’s immigration policies in larger numbers than the rest of the population. But their opinions are divided sharply across partisan lines.Stella Rouse, Associate Professor of Government and Politics and Director of the Center for American Politics and Citizenship, University of MarylandShibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1078722019-01-07T11:42:46Z2019-01-07T11:42:46ZWhite right? How demographics is changing US politics<p>When Donald Trump was campaigning to become the U.S. president, much of the discussion about his growing popularity focused on so-called “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/08/angry-white-men-love-donald-trump">angry white males</a>,” who had been struggling through years of declining economic opportunities. Their frustration led some of them to adopt and espouse <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/08/18/us/ordinary-white-supremacists/index.html">white supremacist ideology</a>.</p>
<p>In many media portrayals, these men, their anger and their sometimes extreme views on how to return to economic and political relevance were treated as a new phenomenon. </p>
<p>But as a <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/css/about/monica-duffy-toft/">scholar of demography and civil war</a>, I can say definitively that none of this is actually new. Declining opportunities for white males and racist ideology have long been features of U.S. politics, from at least the 1930s until now. </p>
<p>So, the real question is, why are we seeing an upsurge of white nativism among white males now – a nativism which combines anger over lost status with a historically bankrupt white supremacist ideology?</p>
<h2>Lagging whites, growing minorities</h2>
<p>According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s data, all racial and ethnic minorities are growing faster than whites. Interestingly, one of the fastest growing groups in this country is “mixed race” (full disclosure: my children are such, being both Mexican- and Irish-American). </p>
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<p>Still, at 198 million, non-Hispanic whites remained the largest group of Americans in 2014; followed by Hispanics at 55.4 million, and blacks or African-Americans at 42 million. Those who identified with two or more races <a href="https://www.census.gov//content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf">stood at just under 8 million</a>. </p>
<p>The Census Bureau projects the crossover point at which the non-Hispanic white population will no longer be a majority will occur in 2044. In fact, no one group will comprise a majority. We will become a plural nation of different ethnic and racial groups.</p>
<h2>Demography and democracy</h2>
<p>That powerful shift in the makeup of the U.S. population has created ideal conditions for a political backlash against people of color, including Hispanics, blacks, Asians and especially immigrants of color. </p>
<p>One prominent example: President Trump’s lament that the U.S. was being <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/368576-trump-rips-protections-for-immigrants-from-shithole-countries-in">overwhelmed by immigrants from “s-hole countries,”</a> rather than from places like Norway. </p>
<p>The backlash also extends to the political leaders who support minorities’ right to be accepted and respected as Americans.</p>
<p>These communities of color remain in the minority. But already in some states, white voters as distinct from all whites are in the minority, and nationally, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/07/01/484325664/babies-of-color-are-now-the-majority-census-says">whites are unlikely to remain in the majority for long</a>. </p>
<p>In California, for example, <a href="https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article25940218.html">non-white populations now make up 62 percent of the population</a>, with Hispanic and white populations at near parity at 38 percent each. </p>
<p>Texas, New Mexico and Arizona are among three southern states where the <a href="https://statisticalatlas.com/state/California/Race-and-Ethnicity">gap between Hispanic minorities and white majorities is closing</a>. Like Florida, these are also states with difficult-to-seal borders and with well-established immigrant communities.</p>
<h2>Politics and population shifts</h2>
<p>For two decades, I have been studying how population shifts across nation-states have led to their collapse. In some cases, those collapses have been violent, such as in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14649284">Lebanon in the 1970s</a> and <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/collapse-soviet-union">the Soviet Union</a> in the 1990s. </p>
<p>Now, demographic dynamics we previously witnessed in “other” or “developing” states are happening in the U.S.</p>
<p>In places where white people have been a demographic majority, white nativism – characterized by the longing for a period when whites were dominant political and economically – arises when some of the majority white population fears for the loss of its stature relative to non-white populations. And in the U.S., <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/07/01/484325664/babies-of-color-are-now-the-majority-census-says">non-whites have higher birth rates and make up the bulk of new immigrants</a>. </p>
<p>As populations shift in democracies, the key question is which group challenges these changes, when – and how? Is it the expanding minority or the declining majority? Is it a combination of fear and desire for change emanating from both the declining majority and rising minority?</p>
<h2>Fighting for lost dominance</h2>
<p>My research reveals that it is the declining majority that tends to act aggressively, often imagining <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03050620701449025">it must preempt a rising minority</a>. Simply put, declining majorities don’t want to yield their status or hegemony.</p>
<p>This turns demographic shifts into a struggle about power and dominance, with elements of the majority refusing to cede ground to emergent new pluralities and majorities that might displace them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252531/original/file-20190104-32145-zyx5qe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Trump’s travel ban targeted Muslims.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2017-02-01/pdf/2017-02281.pdf">Government Publishing Office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The result, historically, follows a general pattern: The declining majority resorts to various forms of apartheid, including changes to voting laws, voter suppression and new restrictions on immigrants, and requirements for citizenship. </p>
<p>Examples include Israel’s successive moves to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/10/10/445343896/in-israel-a-new-battle-over-who-qualifies-as-jewish">tighten the definition of who is a Jew</a>; <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/world/europe/britain-european-union-brexit.html">Britain’s 2016 referendum on membership in the European Union</a> (for working-class Brits, the immigrants of “color” were Pakistanis and Poles); and the new <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2018/trump-travel-ban-supreme-court-decision-countries-map/">U.S. ban on immigrants from seven predominately Muslim countries</a>.</p>
<p>Only rarely do a declining majority’s efforts to maintain dominance escalate to violence or state collapse, as was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/26/world/end-of-the-soviet-union-the-soviet-state-born-of-a-dream-dies.html">the case with the Soviet Union</a>. </p>
<h2>From demographic to political decline</h2>
<p>Mirroring the decline in fortunes of the “angry white male” who supported President Trump is the declining fortunes of the Republican Party. </p>
<p>The current U.S. president leads a minority political party whose <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/">membership has been in decline for over two decades</a>. </p>
<p>President Trump <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html">lost the general election by over 3 million votes</a>. The number of U.S. citizens of voting age <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/">who identify as Republicans</a> has dropped steadily since 1994, compared to those who identify as Democrat or Independent.</p>
<p>The GOP has managed its decline in exactly the same way a declining white majority population might have done: It has resorted to extreme gerrymandering, voter suppression, calls for limits on immigration, and now citizenship restrictions. </p>
<p>The president’s angry rhetoric has arguably been responsible for fomenting a rise in overt bigotry, and in rare but an increasing number of cases, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/in-the-united-states-right-wing-violence-is-on-the-rise/2018/11/25/61f7f24a-deb4-11e8-85df-7a6b4d25cfbb_story.html?utm_term=.b5b3a3abe07e">violence against non-white immigrants, and ethnic, religious, disabled and LGBTQ minorities</a>. In one documented case, a 56 year-old Trump supporter named <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/nyregion/cnn-cory-booker-pipe-bombs-sent.html">Cesar Sayoc mailed a series of bombs to “Trump critics.”</a> His van, in which he had apparently been living, was covered with often violent imagery directed against people of color and political opponents of President Trump, including a sticker featuring then-Representative Nancy Pelosi with rifle-scope crosshairs superimposed.</p>
<p>The partisan divide is further fueled by the conflict over whether non-white immigration is a threat to U.S. security and prosperity.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/02/26/key-facts-about-u-s-immigration-policies-and-proposed-changes/">Immigration to the U.S.</a> has been fairly constant since 1990. </p>
<p>What has changed is the number of refugees fleeing civil wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia and Syria <a href="https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/us-accepted-refugees-2018/">who are coming to the U.S.</a> According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, there are 65.6 million forcibly displaced people in the world – a population greater than that of the U.K. – of which about <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/figures-at-a-glance.html">one-third, 25.4 million, are refugees</a>. </p>
<p>The numbers of refugees and asylum-seekers has been increasing since 2013. At the end of 2013, the U.S. hosted 348,005 people of concern – which includes refugees and asylum-seekers. By the end of 2017, that number rose to 929,850, with <a href="http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/overview#_ga=2.82367446.119990439.1544648438-1408415619.1544648438">asylum-seekers responsible for the significant increase</a>.</p>
<p>The research shows that immigrants are a net drain on national resources for the first few years they are here. But after those first years, the <a href="https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/jan/23/donald-trump/does-immigration-policy-impose-300-billion-annuall/">costs and benefits of their participation balance out</a>.</p>
<h2>White nativism: Why now?</h2>
<p>Though economic opportunity – and specifically the decline in blue-collar jobs capable of supporting a family – affects the popularity of white nativism, it does not explain its timing. </p>
<p>The “why now” of white nativism is due to decades of demographic decline for white Americans combined with <a href="https://theconversation.com/fight-for-federal-right-to-education-takes-a-new-turn-108322">a serious decline in public education standards</a> that leads to unwarranted nostalgia and openness to conspiracy theories. </p>
<p>Add to that the charismatic leadership of Donald J. Trump, who attached white majority fears of status loss with criminalizing immigrants of color. That has stoked the flames of an already smoking fire.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monica Duffy Toft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the US, non-whites have higher birth rates and make up the bulk of new immigrants. As white people lose their demographic majority, some will resist the accompanying political changes.Monica Duffy Toft, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065002018-11-14T11:47:12Z2018-11-14T11:47:12ZA county in Idaho offered Spanish-language ballots for the first time and here’s what happened<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/un-condado-de-idaho-en-eeuu-ofrecio-papeletas-en-espanol-por-primera-vez-y-esto-es-lo-que-paso-106976">Leer en español</a></em>.</p>
<p>On the morning of Election Day, the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/matters-donde-votar-spanish-vote-googles-top-search/story?id=59003457">top trending search on Google was “donde votar</a>,” which means “where to vote” in Spanish.</p>
<p>Voter access to the polls was a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45986329">major issue</a> during the 2018 midterm elections in the U.S. Charges of voter suppression were made in in Georgia and North Dakota. Critics of new voting rules claimed they disenfranchised African-Americans and Native Americans. </p>
<p>While those problems were extensively covered by the press, less attention was paid to another problem that can affect voter turnout: the availability of foreign-language ballots.</p>
<p>Lack of access to non-English ballots can be an <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2647557">obstacle to voting for immigrants</a>. Simply put, if voters can’t understand the ballot, they may not vote.</p>
<p>That’s why the <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/voting-rights/voting-rights-determination-file.html">Voting Rights Act</a> has protections for <a href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/page/file/927236/download">language minorities</a>, defined as “persons who are American Indian, Asian American, Alaskan Natives, or of Spanish heritage.” The act requires local election officials to provide foreign-language election materials in regions that have a certain number of voters with limited English proficiency. <a href="https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/crt/legacy/2011/11/04/28CFRPart55.pdf">Election materials</a> can include registration or voting notices, instructions and ballots.</p>
<p>After the 2016 election, the Census Bureau released a list of 263 jurisdictions in 29 states required to offer such <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/12/16/more-voters-will-have-access-to-non-english-ballots-in-the-next-election-cycle/">foreign-language election materials</a>. Those areas included close to 70 million voters with limited English who could vote in the 2018 election. For the first time, Idaho had a jurisdiction required to offer Spanish-language ballots. </p>
<p>I’m a <a href="https://sps.boisestate.edu/ipi/gabe-osterhout/">researcher</a> at Boise State University’s Idaho Policy Institute where I study the impact of electoral policy on voter turnout and outcomes. I examined how this new requirement affected voter behavior on Election Day in Idaho. </p>
<p>While my findings seem to be an outlier in the larger context of election language assistance studies, the experience of one county may help broaden our understanding of the impact of foreign-language ballots as the <a href="https://www.idahostatejournal.com/members/growing-hispanic-population-part-of-idaho-s-history/article_f65db386-4315-11e5-b41e-e731d99a9f78.html">Hispanic population continues to grow</a> in Idaho and elsewhere.</p>
<h2>The curious case of Idaho</h2>
<p>Idaho has 80,000 Hispanic voters, 7 percent of Idaho’s <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/fact-sheet/latinos-in-the-2016-election-idaho/">eligible voter population</a>. Lincoln County is a small, rural area in southern Idaho. It has slightly more than <a href="http://www.statsamerica.org/USCP/">5,000 residents, including 1,600 Hispanics</a>, representing 30 percent of the county’s population. Among those that speak Spanish at home, <a href="https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml">60 percent do not speak English very well</a>. </p>
<p>I studied <a href="http://lincolncountyid.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Nov-2018-General-election-Unofficial-results-1.pdf">Lincoln County’s turnout</a> before and after the 2018 election to see if election language assistance affected voter behavior in the Latino community.</p>
<p>Compared to previous midterm elections, the county’s 68 percent turnout was higher than in <a href="https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/results/index.html">2014, 2010 and 2006</a>. However, this year’s elections also saw <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/08/665197690/a-boatload-of-ballots-midterm-voter-turnout-hit-50-year-high">higher voter turnout</a> across Idaho and the United States, which makes it difficult to isolate the impact of Spanish-language ballots.</p>
<p><iframe id="Kpi4M" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Kpi4M/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>To dig deeper, I compared voter turnout in Lincoln to three neighboring and demographically similar counties: Minidoka, Jerome and Gooding. The four counties all have Hispanic populations ranging from <a href="https://icha.idaho.gov/menus/idaho_counties.asp">29 percent to 34 percent of the population</a>. But unlike Lincoln, its neighboring counties were not required to offer Spanish-language ballots.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245470/original/file-20181114-194516-1bfp2ua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing the percentage increase in turnout in 2018 from the previous three midterm years in four counties in Idaho.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I found that Lincoln County’s voter turnout didn’t increase in 2018 from the previous three midterms any more than its neighbors. </p>
<p>Turnout in Lincoln rose <a href="http://lincolncountyid.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Nov-2018-General-election-Unofficial-results-1.pdf">5.4 percent</a> compared to the previous three midterm elections, while <a href="https://www.jeromecountyid.us/DocumentCenter/View/496/General-Election-Results">Jerome</a> rose 5.6 percent, <a href="http://www.minidoka.id.us/DocumentCenter/View/430/Nov-6-2018-General-Unofficial-Abstract">Minidoka</a> rose 8.4 percent, and <a href="https://www.goodingcounty.org/DocumentCenter/View/1071/NOV-6-2018-UNOFFICIAL-RESULTS0001">Gooding</a> rose 9.1 percent. These three counties had higher rates of increased voter turnout compared to recent midterms than Lincoln County did.</p>
<p>Does this mean that Spanish-language ballots don’t affect Hispanic election participation? From this case, it’s hard to tell. </p>
<p>Here’s what we know based on previous research.</p>
<h2>The bigger picture</h2>
<p>Counties that offered language assistance in previous elections have experienced increased minority participation. Since the Voting Rights Act was amended to include minority language assistance in 1975, <a href="https://heinonline.org/hol-cgi-bin/get_pdf.cgi?handle=hein.journals/tfcl12&section=10">Hispanic voter registration doubled over the following 30 years</a>. Language assistance has a significant effect on voting turnout for minority groups, <a href="http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0801553&site=ehost-live">especially for first-generation citizens</a>.</p>
<p>Other studies show that, despite helping increase voter turnout, election language assistance <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2011.00302.x">does not help increase voter registration</a> for people who don’t speak English fluently. This is an important consideration since voter turnout compares the number of ballots cast to the number of registered voters, not the total population.</p>
<p>Overall, studies show that foreign-language assistance, and especially Spanish-language ballots, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23025122">make it easier for immigrant populations</a> to engage in the election process and have increased voter turnout among Hispanic citizens. </p>
<p>The turnout in Lincoln County, Idaho this year seems to be an outlier. This may be due to a few reasons. For one, the small sampling size of a sparsely populated county means that even minor changes in voting behavior can create erratic statistical swings. Further, with 2018 being Lincoln County’s first major election to offer Spanish ballots, we can only look at one data point. Its turnout numbers will become more reliable and significant as future elections take place and offer more data points. As the first bilingual election, it is also possible that some members of the community were not aware of the opportunity to vote in another language.</p>
<p>Lincoln County also has a significantly <a href="https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/VoterReg/2018/11/partybycounty.html">lower percentage of registered</a> Democratic voters compared to other regions in the country offering foreign-language ballots. This is important because turnout in 2018 was higher in <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/09/04/643686875/democrats-2018-primary-turnout-mirrors-previous-wave-elections">liberal-leaning areas</a>.</p>
<p>There are likely other electoral factors at play that need more consideration, but these findings will perhaps prove helpful, as other Idaho counties <a href="https://www.idahopress.com/news/elections/county-poll-workers-can-assist-voters-in-spanish/article_f9120b0c-da3d-515c-854b-406d4ca39e59.html">will likely be required to offer</a> Spanish-language ballots after the next census as the state’s Hispanic population continues to grow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabe Osterhout does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Voting Rights Act offers language assistance for voters with limited English proficiency. What can we learn from an Idaho county’s experience offering foreign-language ballots?Gabe Osterhout, Research Associate, Idaho Policy Institute, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1053382018-10-24T12:21:46Z2018-10-24T12:21:46ZDemocrats can’t count on Latinos to swing the midterms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/241463/original/file-20181019-105782-vt22wl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Latinos make up 12 percent of all registered voters in the US, but less than half vote regularly.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Census-Births-vs-Immigration/2d7ed879b8484c96a805a66e7d3f4572/3/0">AP Photo/Isaac Brekken, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Democrats are ready to <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/03/turnout-in-this-years-u-s-house-primaries-rose-sharply-especially-on-the-democratic-side/">turn out in record numbers</a> for November’s midterm elections, surveys show, particularly <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/06/15/dems_fate_in_november_may_ride_on_female_turnout_137283.html">women</a> and older voters.</p>
<p>But not all members of the party are as motivated. </p>
<p>Democrats have “a Latino problem,” according to analysis by two media outlets, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/13/latino-turnout-democrats-midterms-898556?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=00000156-93f5-d63c-a7d6-93ff85830001&nlid=630318">Politico</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/upshot/midterms-democrats-turnout-enthusiasm.html?em_pos=small&emc=edit_up_20181019&nl=upshot&nl_art=0&nlid=19815576emc%3Dedit_up_20181019&ref=headline&te=1">The New York Times</a>, showing that Latino turnout may be low this November.</p>
<p>Approximately 27.3 million U.S. Latinos can vote in November – 12 percent of all eligible voters, according to the <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/">Pew Research Center</a>. Democrats are courting Latinos in red states like <a href="https://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Arizona-Democrats-hope-to-ride-blue-wave-in-13151798.php">Arizona</a> and Florida, <a href="http://www.abc12.com/content/news/Mid-Michigan-Latino-community-reacts-to-Trumps-zero-tolerance-policy-485866601.html">hoping</a> that this big bloc of voters will punish Republicans for President Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant policies. </p>
<p>But the so-called “Latino vote” has always been <a href="https://www.visaliatimesdelta.com/story/opinion/2016/11/18/latino-voting-bloc-just-myth-complicated/94031548/">more promise than reality</a>. My <a href="http://sws298.wixsite.com/steffenschmidt">political science research</a> explains why Latinos won’t swing the midterms for Democrats.</p>
<h2>Eligibility and turnout</h2>
<p>Immigration status is one factor that limits the political impact of this group. </p>
<p>According to U.S. Census Bureau figures, only 44 percent of U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote, a lower proportion than Asian, African-American and white voters.</p>
<p>But Latino voter turnout is also generally low. </p>
<p>In the 2016 U.S. election, Pew finds, 48 percent of eligible Latino voters <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/">cast a ballot</a>, compared to 65.3 perent of whites and 59.6 percent of blacks. </p>
<p>This year, The New York Times has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/upshot/midterms-democrats-turnout-enthusiasm.html?em_pos=small&emc=edit_up_20181019&nl=upshot&nl_art=0&nlid=19815576emc%3Dedit_up_20181019&ref=headline&te=1">found</a>, 58 percent of white registered voters and half of black registered voters say they’re “almost certain” to vote in the midterms. But just 43 percent of Hispanic voters are as sure they’ll participate.</p>
<p>Some U.S. Latinos are highly likely to vote, including older voters with a college degree and Cuban-Americans. </p>
<p>But just one in three voting-aged Latinos under 29 voted in the last presidential election. Turnout was even lower among Latinos with less than a high school diploma. </p>
<p>Fully 20 percent of U.S. Latino voters fall into this low-turnout category. </p>
<h2>Swing districts not well located for Dems</h2>
<p>The impact of the Latino vote on Senate and House races in 2018 is likewise limited by geographic factors. </p>
<p>More than half – 52 percent – of all Latinos eligible to vote live in California, Texas and New York. Congressional candidates in these states already understand the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/04/us/latino-vote-california.html">power of Latino voters</a>, who have been decisive players in at least two dozen districts since the 1980s. Candidates successfully target Latino constituents in their <a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-latino-voters-primary-turnout-20180608-htmlstory.html#">media campaigns and outreach work</a>. </p>
<p>In four big swing states, on the other hand – Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio – Latinos make up 5 percent or less of eligible voters. </p>
<p>Gerrymandering of congressional districts and onerous voter registration barriers also significantly <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/partisan-gerrymandering-is-still-about-race">diminish Latinos’ voting power</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, Latino voters may be decisive for Democrats in just a handful of races: those occurring in states with <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/mapping-the-latino-electorate-by-congressional-district/">competitive districts and significant Latino populations</a>, including Virginia, Florida, Texas, Arizona and California.</p>
<p>In my view, the Latino vote could help push Democrats to victory in just seven races in five states. These include <a href="https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/virginia-10th-district-democratic-primary-results/">Virginia’s 10th district</a>, in the suburbs of Washington, D.C.; Texas’ southwestern 23rd and suburban 7th districts; <a href="https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2018/04/meet-a-competitive-house-race-florida-26th-distric-1.html">Florida’s 26th district</a>, which includes Miami; and Arizona’s <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/07/21/midterm-elections-1-seat-swing-arizona-could-change-congress/783559002/">Tucson-based 2nd district</a>.</p>
<h2>Not single-issue voters</h2>
<p>The assumption that Latinos outraged by Trump’s immigration policies will come out en masse to vote against his party reveals <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Backlash-builds-over-immigration-but-it-s-12495046.php">another errant assumption</a> about this voter segment – namely, that all Latinos <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/12/22/506347254/latinos-will-never-vote-for-a-republican-and-other-myths-about-hispanics-from-20">care about the same things</a>. </p>
<p>The Latino demographic is as diverse as any other population in America. It is a mistake to think that any 27.3 million eligible voters would rally around the same issues – even Trump’s immigration policies. The facts show that Latinos vote based on the same array of factors – gender identity, profession, religious affiliation, economic class, education – as other groups.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/155327/hispanic-voters-put-issues-immigration.aspx">Gallup</a>, Latino voters are concerned about health care, jobs, the economy and inequality. Just 12 percent cite immigration as their primary concern.</p>
<p>Some Latinos, like other Americans Trump targeted during his campaign, are themselves <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/206681/worry-illegal-immigration-steady.aspx">weary of undocumented immigration</a>. Gallup polls over the past six years find that an average of 67 percent of Hispanics have said they worry “a great deal or fair amount” about illegal immigration. That is 10 points higher than non-Hispanic white respondents and 12 points higher than black respondents.</p>
<h2>Inaccurate polling</h2>
<p>The truth is, we just don’t know enough about the preferences of Latino voters. Just <a href="http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/5214/8106/0204/PostElection2016_-_Barreto_-_CAP.pdf">half a dozen polls</a> – out of hundreds – exclusively target the Latino voter segment. </p>
<p>And what polling is done on Latinos is often <a href="http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/11/10/lies-damn-lies-and-exit-polls/">not well-designed</a>, warn the Latino political leaders I’ve interviewed. They say that exit pollsters cannot accurately define who is a Latino and that surveys do not draw from representative samples of Latino districts. </p>
<p>As a result, projections about Latino voter behavior are often inaccurate. </p>
<p>Here’s an example: Nearly all the analysts and anchors I interviewed from Telemundo, Univision and CNN en Español before the 2016 election agreed that Trump would win very few Latino voters. </p>
<p>Ultimately, it appears that 28 percent of Latinos <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/03/trump-really-did-win-28-latino-vote/">voted for Trump</a>. That’s just shy of the average 30 percent of U.S. Latinos who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/heres-what-happened-with-the-latino-vote">usually vote for GOP candidates</a> and a reflection of the conservative social values many Latinos hold about abortion, LGBTQ issues and big government bureaucracies. </p>
<h2>Republicans could lose Latino support</h2>
<p>The 2018 midterm elections will be a sharp and significant test of Latino voter behavior in the United States – even more so than the 2016 presidential election.</p>
<p>Back then, Trump was running for president. His anti-immigrant tirades could be passed off as campaign rhetoric. </p>
<p>Today many U.S. Latinos and their families feel the direct impact of his Republican administration’s policies, including a crackdown on <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/07/immigration-is-americas-biggest-concern-and-its-bringing-out-the-worst-in-people/374607/">undocumented immigrants</a>, the inhumane treatment of <a href="https://www.sistersofmercy.org/what-we-do/social-justice-advocacy/immigration/">Central American asylum-seekers</a> and the legal limbo inflicted on the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/12/jeff-bezos-and-8-other-ceos-are-speaking-up-for-dreamers.html">young immigrants</a> known as Dreamers.</p>
<p>Latinos, the largest and fastest-growing community in the United States, may not win Congress for the Democrats in November. But Trump may have lost them for Republicans. </p>
<p><em>This article is an update of the story “<a href="https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-why-anti-trump-latino-voters-wont-swing-the-midterms-100570">4 reasons why anti-Trump Latino voters won’t swing the midterms</a>,” originally published Aug. 20, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105338/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffen W. Schmidt is affiliated with the League of United Latin American Citizens. He was born and raised in Cali, Colombia.</span></em></p>Latinos are less likely than other Americans to vote in November, new polling shows. Here’s why Democrats shouldn’t expect a Latino blue wave to swing the midterms in their favor.Steffen W. Schmidt, Lucken Endowed Professor of Political Science, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1034162018-10-10T10:48:54Z2018-10-10T10:48:54ZYouth living in settlements at US border suffer poverty and lack of health care<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239984/original/file-20181009-72100-1eynzze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Children play in the Indian Hills East Colonia near Alamo, Texas.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Eric Gay</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/los-jovenes-que-viven-en-colonias-de-la-frontera-de-estados-unidos-sufren-pobreza-y-falta-de-atencion-medica-104730">Leer en español</a></em>.</p>
<p>Recent media stories from the U.S.-Mexico border about immigration have largely missed the daily struggle of families and children in U.S. communities called “colonias.” </p>
<p>Colonias line both sides of the border, including the southern counties of Texas, California, New Mexico and Arizona.</p>
<p>On the U.S. side, most colonias were established as informal settlements by Latino agricultural workers within the past 70 years, facilitated by <a href="http://www.tdhca.state.tx.us/oci/background.htm">loose land regulation</a> in “regulation free zones.” </p>
<p>Over time, many colonia settlements grew to sizable communities – many with hundreds of housing units and residents.</p>
<p>These makeshift settlements are primarily located on the periphery of larger border towns. According to estimates, roughly <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/%7E/media/microsites/cd/colonias/background.html">half a million people live in colonias</a> along the Texas piece of the U.S.-Mexico border alone. There are, in fact, as many as 2,000 colonias in the four border states, of which the vast majority are in Texas.</p>
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<p>They have some of the <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/%7E/media/microsites/cd/colonias/econop.html">highest poverty rates in the nation</a>. Homes in these communities commonly lack reliable electricity and <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/%7E/media/documents/cd/events/2016/16coloniasbarton.pdf">internet access</a>. Drinkable water is often only available from open-air pipes. </p>
<p>While nearly exclusively of Latino origin, almost three-quarters of the people living in Texas colonias <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/%7E/media/microsites/cd/colonias/background.html">hold U.S. citizenship</a> and two-thirds are U.S.-born.</p>
<p>For more than a decade, I have routinely visited the border region and worked in collaboration with a <a href="https://www.bhsst.org/">local health and social service agency</a> to help Latino families address violence, alcohol use, teen pregnancy and inadequate health care in their communities. As the director of the <a href="http://clafh.org/">Center for Latino Adolescent and Family Health</a> at New York University, I coordinate the border-focused work on Mexican-American health and social welfare issues.</p>
<h2>Life in las colonias</h2>
<p>The living conditions in border colonias are mostly dire. Many of these small towns on the U.S. side of the border <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/%7E/media/microsites/cd/colonias/infrastructure.html">lack the most basic public services and utilities</a> such as paved roads and adequate drainage. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/%7E/media/documents/cd/events/2016/16coloniasbarton2.pdf">Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas data</a>, families in 28 percent of U.S. border colonias have no access to indoor toilets. Instead, they use outhouses. </p>
<p>Staying healthy is also a challenge. According to the U.S. Health Resources and Services Administration, border counties with high concentrations of colonia settlements are underserved by clinics and hospitals, and are insufficiently covered by <a href="https://data.hrsa.gov/tools/shortage-area/hpsa-find">primary and specialty care providers</a>. Arranging transportation to the few local health care centers in larger surrounding towns is difficult, and over one-third of Texas border county residents under age 65 have <a href="http://healthdata.dshs.texas.gov/HealthFactsProfiles">no health insurance</a>.</p>
<p>As a result, <a href="https://www.ruralhealthweb.org/NRHA/media/Emerge_NRHA/Advocacy/Policy%20documents/05-11-18-NRHA-Policy-Border-Health.pdf">cancer, diabetes, pneumonia, liver disease and unintentional injuries</a> are common along the U.S.-Mexico border and frequently result in serious disease and premature death. </p>
<h2>Colonia youth</h2>
<p>More than half of the population is under the age of 30 in the colonias. Poverty, health disparities and lack of opportunity are hitting these younger people particularly hard. </p>
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<p>Disadvantage among Latino adolescents in colonia communities does not exclusively manifest itself as poverty or poor health. Disadvantage among colonia youth includes being shut out of opportunities to acquire skills and preparation for success and good health later in life.</p>
<p>Research suggests that young people’s experience of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10560-015-0396-2">adversity early on or continuously throughout childhood</a> sets the stage for long-term inequality. </p>
<p>Adverse childhood experiences resulting in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.142.1_MeetingAbstract.540">stress and trauma</a> are common among children and adolescents growing up in colonias. In these communities, teen pregnancy and birth rates are among the highest in the country, childhood obesity is common, and access to all levels of education and employment is limited. </p>
<p>Many colonia adolescents fail to complete high school. They eke out a living in the informal sector, for example as agricultural workers, vendors or construction workers, and <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/%7E/media/documents/cd/events/2016/16coloniasolmedo.pdf">fall short of achieving their potential and moving up the ladder</a>.</p>
<h2>Ways forward</h2>
<p>Linking families to health care services and helping parents promote adolescent health and well-being is an effective way to creating opportunities for colonia youth.</p>
<p>This is part of the work I’ve done with a variety of organizations in the region. We collaborated with local community health workers in the Rio Grande Valley to deliver the <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/ash/oah/grant-programs/teen-pregnancy-prevention-program-tpp/evidence-based-programs/families-talking-together/index.html">Families Talking Together</a> intervention. It strengthens family bonds, supports parent-adolescent communication about too early sex, and links families to health care. It has reached more than 600 Latino families in colonias along the South Texas border between 2015 and 2018.</p>
<p>What we learned during the project is that families along the border want the same things as families across the U.S.: opportunities for economic prosperity, access to health care and education for themselves and their children, and a shot at the American dream.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vincent Guilamo-Ramos receives funding from NIAAA. He is affiliated with the Power to Decide and the Latino Commission on AIDS. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Thimm-Kaiser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One of the largest concentrations of poverty in the US exists in communities at the US-Mexico border called ‘colonias.’ These informal settlements lack access to basic infrastructure.Vincent Guilamo-Ramos, Professor of Social Work, Nursing and Global Public Health, New York UniversityMarco Thimm-Kaiser, Assistant Research Scientist, Center for Latino Adolescent and Family Health, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/923242018-03-22T20:00:09Z2018-03-22T20:00:09ZForced sterilization programs in California once harmed thousands – particularly Latinas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210862/original/file-20180316-104663-1txsaha.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Postcard of the Napa State Hospital in Napa, Calif., circa 1905. Over 1,900 Californians were recommended for sterilization while patients here.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://alexwellerstein.com/collection/">The collection of Alex Wellerstein</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/los-programas-de-esterilizacion-forzada-en-california-perjudicaron-a-miles-especialmente-a-latinas-93768">Leer en español</a>.</em></p>
<p>In 1942, 18-year-old Iris Lopez, a Mexican-American woman, started working at the Calship Yards in Los Angeles. Working on the home front building <a href="https://www.nps.gov/nr/twhp/wwwlps/lessons/116liberty_victory_ships/116liberty_victory_ships.htm">Victory Ships</a> not only added to the war effort, but allowed Iris to support her family. </p>
<p>Iris’ participation in the World War II effort made her part of a <a href="https://iptv.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/american-shipyards-war-effort-ken-burns-the-war/american-shipyards-war-effort-ken-burns-the-war/">celebrated time</a> in U.S. history, when economic opportunities opened up for <a href="https://www.uncpress.org/book/9781469622095/from-coveralls-to-zoot-suits/">women and youth of color</a>. </p>
<p>However, before joining the shipyards, Iris was entangled in another lesser-known history. At the age of 16, Iris was committed to a California institution and sterilized. </p>
<p>Iris wasn’t alone. In the first half of the 20th century, <a href="https://www.uvm.edu/%7Elkaelber/eugenics/">approximately 60,000 people were sterilized</a> under U.S. eugenics programs. Eugenic laws in 32 states empowered government officials in public health, social work and state institutions to render people they deemed “unfit” infertile. </p>
<p>California led the nation in this effort at social engineering. Between the early 1920s and the 1950s, Iris and approximately 20,000 other people – one-third of the national total – were sterilized in California state institutions for the mentally ill and disabled. </p>
<p>To better understand the nation’s most aggressive eugenic sterilization program, <a href="https://sites.google.com/umich.edu/ssj-mini-conference">our research team</a> tracked sterilization requests of over 20,000 people. We wanted to know about the role patients’ race played in sterilization decisions. What made young women like Iris a target? How and why was she cast as “unfit”? </p>
<p>Racial biases affected Iris’ life and the lives of thousands of others. Their experiences serve as an important historical backdrop to ongoing issues in the U.S. today.</p>
<h2>‘Race science’ and sterilization</h2>
<p>Eugenics was seen as a “science” in the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/eugenics-the-early-days/">early 20th century</a>, and its ideas remained popular <a href="https://www.indyweek.com/indyweek/the-american-eugenics-movement-after-world-war-ii-part-1-of-3/Content?oid=2468789">into the midcentury</a>. Advocating for the “science of better breeding,” eugenicists endorsed sterilizing people considered unfit to reproduce. </p>
<p>Under <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_vault/2015/05/06/history_of_sterilization_in_california_pamphlet_from_the_human_betterment.html">California’s eugenic law</a>, first passed in 1909, anyone committed to a state institution could be sterilized. Many of those committed were sent by a court order. Others were committed by family members who wouldn’t or couldn’t care for them. Once a patient was admitted, medical superintendents held the legal power to recommend and authorize the operation.</p>
<p>Eugenics policies were shaped by entrenched hierarchies of race, class, gender and ability. Working-class youth, especially youth of color, were targeted for commitment and sterilization during the peak years. </p>
<p>Eugenic thinking was also used to support racist policies like <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/before-loving/">anti-miscegenation laws</a> and the <a href="https://cla.umn.edu/ihrc/news-events/other/eugenics-race-immigration-restriction">Immigration Act of 1924</a>. Anti-Mexican sentiment in particular was spurred by theories that Mexican immigrants and Mexican-Americans were at a “<a href="https://archive.org/details/surveysinmentald00caliiala">lower racial level.”</a> Contemporary politicians and state officials often described Mexicans as inherently less intelligent, immoral, “hyperfertile” and criminally inclined. </p>
<p>These stereotypes appeared in reports written by state authorities. Mexicans and their descendants were described as “<a href="https://archive.org/details/surveysinmentald00caliiala">immigrants of an undesirable type</a>.” If their existence in the U.S. was undesirable, then so was their reproduction. </p>
<h2>Targeting Latinos and Latinas</h2>
<p>In a study <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304369">published March 22</a>, we looked at the California program’s disproportionately high impact on the Latino population, primarily women and men from Mexico.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211410/original/file-20180321-165574-3rwgpw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211410/original/file-20180321-165574-3rwgpw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211410/original/file-20180321-165574-3rwgpw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211410/original/file-20180321-165574-3rwgpw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211410/original/file-20180321-165574-3rwgpw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=756&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211410/original/file-20180321-165574-3rwgpw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=950&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211410/original/file-20180321-165574-3rwgpw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=950&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211410/original/file-20180321-165574-3rwgpw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=950&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sample sterilization form for a 15-year-old woman in California.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sterilization and Social Justice Lab, University of Michigan</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://experts.illinois.edu/en/publications/mexican-americans-and-eugenic-sterilization-resisting-reproductiv">Previous</a> <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book.php?isbn=9780520271722">research</a> examined racial bias in California’s sterilization program. But the extent of anti-Latino bias hadn’t been formally quantified. Latinas like Iris were certainly targeted for sterilization, but to what extent? </p>
<p>We used sterilization forms found by historian Alexandra Minna Stern to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/01/california-sterilization-records/511718/">build a data set</a> on over 20,000 people recommended for sterilization in California between 1919 and 1953. The racial categories used to classify Californians of Mexican origin were in flux during this time period, so we used Spanish surname criteria as a proxy.
In 1950, 88 percent of Californians with a Spanish surname <a href="https://www2.census.gov/prod2/decennial/documents/41601756v4p3ch07.pdf">were of
Mexican descent</a>. </p>
<p>We compared patients recommended for sterilization to the patient population of each institution, which we reconstructed with data from census forms. We then measured sterilization rates between Latino and non-Latino patients, adjusting for age. (Both Latino patients and people recommended for sterilization tended to be younger.)</p>
<p>Latino men were 23 percent more likely to be sterilized than non-Latino men. The difference was even greater among women, with Latinas sterilized at 59 percent higher rates than non-Latinas. </p>
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<p>In their records, doctors repeatedly cast young Latino men as biologically prone to crime, while young Latinas like Iris were described as “sex delinquents.” Their sterilizations were described as necessary to protect the state from increased crime, poverty and racial degeneracy. </p>
<h2>Lasting impact</h2>
<p>The legacy of these infringements on reproductive rights is still visible today. </p>
<p>Recent incidents in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/11/21/tenn-judge-reprimanded-for-offering-reduced-jail-time-in-exchange-for-sterilization/">Tennessee</a>, <a href="http://time.com/2903158/california-to-investigate-illegal-sterilization-of-female-inmates/">California</a> and <a href="http://newsok.com/offender-awaiting-sentencing-in-counterfeit-check-case-gets-operation-making-her-sterile-at-judges-suggestion/article/5582478">Oklahoma</a> echo this past. In each case, people in contact with the criminal justice system – often people of color – were sterilized under coercive pressure from the state. </p>
<p>Contemporary justifications for this practice rely on core tenets of eugenics. Proponents argued that preventing the reproduction of some will help solve larger social issues like poverty. The doctor who sterilized incarcerated women in California without proper consent stated that doing so would save the state money in future welfare costs for <a href="https://www.revealnews.org/article/female-inmates-sterilized-in-california-prisons-without-approval/">“unwanted children.”</a></p>
<p>The eugenics era also echoes in the broader cultural and political landscape of the U.S. today. Latina women’s reproduction is repeatedly portrayed <a href="https://utpress.utexas.edu/books/gutfer">as a threat to the nation</a>. Latina immigrants in particular are seen as hyperfertile. Their children are sometimes derogatorily referred to as “<a href="http://harvardlpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/2.2_9_Huang.pdf">anchor babies</a>” and described as a burden on the nation. </p>
<h2>Reproductive justice</h2>
<p>This history – and other histories of sterilization abuse of <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/seeking-justice/case-docket/relf-v-weinberger">black</a>, <a href="https://rewire.news/article/2018/03/15/ama-legacy-sterilization-indian-country/">Native</a>, <a href="http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/films/no-mas-bebes/">Mexican immigrant</a> and <a href="https://www.cwluherstory.org/health/35-of-puerto-rican-women-sterilized?rq=Puerto%20rico">Puerto Rican</a> women – inform the modern <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/why-is-reproductive-justice-vital-in-this-political-moment-a-new-book-breaks-it-down/">reproductive justice</a> movement. </p>
<p>This movement, as defined by the advocacy group <a href="http://sistersong.net/reproductive-justice/">SisterSong Women of Color Reproductive Justice Collective</a> is committed to “the human right to maintain personal bodily autonomy, have children, not have children and parent the children we have in safe and sustainable communities.” </p>
<p>As the fight for contemporary reproductive justice continues, it’s important to acknowledge the wrongs of the past. The nonprofit <a href="https://californialatinas.org">California Latinas for Reproductive Justice</a> has co-sponsored
a forthcoming bill that offers financial redress to living survivors of California’s eugenic sterilization program. “As reproductive justice advocates, we recognize the insidious impact state-sponsored policies have on the dignity and rights of poor women of color who are often stripped of their ability to form the families they want,” CLRJ Executive Director Laura Jiménez said in a statement.</p>
<p><a href="https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180SB1190">This bill</a> was introduced on Feb. 15 by Sen. Nancy Skinner, along with Assemblymember Monique Limón and Sen. Jim Beall.</p>
<p>If this bill passes, California would follow in the footsteps of <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/all/eugenic-sterilization-victims-belated-justice">North Carolina</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-general-assembly-agrees-to-compensate-eugenics-victims/2015/02/27/b2b7b0ec-be9e-11e4-bdfa-b8e8f594e6ee_story.html?utm_term=.f6b63e0a1f45">Virginia</a>, which began sterilization redress programs in 2013 and 2015. </p>
<p>In the words of Jimenez, “This bill is a step in the right direction in remedying the violence inflicted on these survivors.” In our view, financial compensation will never make up for the violation of survivors’ fundamental human rights. But it’s an opportunity to <a href="http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-eugenics-california-20170122-story.html">reaffirm the dignity and self-determination</a> of all people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92324/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole L. Novak has received funding from the National Human Genome Research Institute at the National Institutes of Health.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Lira has previously received funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities. </span></em></p>About 20,000 Californians were once sterilized under state eugenics laws. New research shows Latinos were disproportionately targeted. Is there any opportunity today to address these wrongs?Nicole L. Novak, Postdoctoral Research Scholar, University of IowaNatalie Lira, Assistant Professor of Latina/Latino Studies, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/690952017-02-21T01:25:21Z2017-02-21T01:25:21ZDiversity is on the rise in urban and rural communities, and it’s here to stay<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157226/original/image-20170216-32685-k4bo9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Schoolchildren play on a New York subway.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Mark Lennihan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Racial and ethnic diversity is no longer confined to big cities and the east and west coasts of the United States. </p>
<p>In the 2016 U.S. <a href="http://www.citylab.com/politics/2016/11/how-americas-metro-areas-voted/508355/">presidential election</a>, racially and ethnically diverse metropolitan areas were more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton. Whiter metro and rural areas supported Donald Trump. This pattern reinforced the stereotype of “white rural” versus “minority urban” areas. </p>
<p>However, our research shows that the populations of communities throughout the nation are being transformed. The share of racial and ethnic minorities is <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/book/diversity-explosion/">increasing</a> rapidly and irreversibly. These changes will have major impacts on the economy, social cohesion, education and other important <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-013-0197-1">parts of American life</a>. </p>
<h2>Nearly all communities are becoming more diverse</h2>
<p>In everyday language, “diversity” often refers to racial and ethnic variation. But demographers have developed a mathematical definition of this concept: The greater the number of racial-ethnic groups in the community, and the more equal in size the groups are, the greater the diversity. Using this definition, we have <a href="https://www.russellsage.org/sites/all/files/logan/logan_diversity_chapter13.pdf">estimated</a> that diversity has increased in 98 percent of all metropolitan areas, and 97 percent of smaller cities in the U.S. since 1980.</p>
<p>The trend is not limited to urban America. Dramatic increases are evident in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ruso.12141/epdf">rural places</a> as well. Nine out of 10 rural places experienced increases in diversity between 1990 and 2010, and these changes occurred in every region of the country. Even within metropolitan settings, the traditional divide between diverse cities and <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0042098009346862">white suburbia</a> has been eroded. <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/book/twenty-first-century-gateways/">Immigrant-rich suburbs</a> are rising around cities like Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., which rival urban enclaves as destinations for Asians and Latinos.</p>
<p>Of course, some communities have changed more than <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00125.x/epdf">others</a>. Despite these differences, a common trend is for a place’s racial-ethnic composition to change from white dominance to a <a href="https://www.sociologicalscience.com/download/volume-2/march/SocSci_v2_125to157.pdf">multigroup mix</a>, with some combination of whites, blacks, Latinos and Asians. This led to an increase in “<a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1078087416682320">no-majority” communities</a> – including more than 1,100 cities and towns, 110 counties and four states: California, Texas, New Mexico and Hawaii. In these places, none of the major racial-ethnic groups constitutes as much as 50 percent of all residents. </p>
<h2>Immigration and diversity</h2>
<p>The racial and ethnic diversity we see today stems from the large and sustained wave of immigration that followed the <a href="http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/fifty-years-1965-immigration-and-nationality-act-continues-reshape-united-states">Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965</a>. Between 1965 and 2015, the proportion of non-Hispanic whites in the country dropped from 84 to 62 percent, while the shares of Hispanics and Asians rose. The Pew Research Center found that these changes were largely <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/28/chapter-2-immigrations-impact-on-past-and-future-u-s-population-change/">driven by immigration</a>, not births. Only one-third of Hispanics and one-tenth of Asians would be living in the United States in 2015 had there been no immigration since 1965. Today, Hispanics account for 18 percent and Asians 6 percent of the U.S. population.</p>
<p>Domestic and international <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-016-0479-5">migration</a> during the 1990s and 2000s also contributed to the spread of diversity across American communities. Racial and ethnic minorities tended to move to whiter areas, and white young adults tended to move to more diverse urban areas. Notably, Latino immigrants were first concentrated in just a handful of states such as California, Texas, Florida, Illinois and New York. They started to spread across the country during the 1990s to areas known as “new destinations,” like North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa.</p>
<p>By that time, many Hispanic immigrants had acquired legal status and were free to move to new <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/3401474">job opportunities</a> in agriculture, construction and manufacturing in the Southeast and Midwest, as well as service sector jobs in high-amenity vacation <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00045608.2015.1052338?scroll=top&needAccess=true&journalCode=raag20">destinations</a>, such as in Colorado. </p>
<h2>Diversity is now self-sustaining</h2>
<p>Despite the initial importance of migration, racial and ethnic diversity is now self-sustaining. Minority groups will soon be maintained by “natural increase,” when births exceed deaths, rather than by new immigration. </p>
<p>This is especially true for Hispanics. According to the Pew Research Center study mentioned earlier, about a quarter of the U.S. population is projected to be Hispanic by 2065, up from 18 percent in 2015. This trend would not change if immigration somehow were halted completely after 2015, the final year in Pew’s study. The sustainability of the Latino population is even evident in rural and urban areas in the Southeast and Midwest, where natural increase in the Latino population, rather than international or domestic migration, is now responsible for <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00222.x/abstract">more than half</a> of Hispanic growth. </p>
<p>But, how can the share of Hispanics continue to grow without new immigration? </p>
<p>A small part of the answer is that Latinos have slightly more children than non-Hispanic whites. On average, Hispanic women have <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_12.pdf">2.1 children</a> compared with 1.8 among non-Hispanic white women. However, fertility among Hispanic women <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1353/dem.0.0023">declines</a> with each new generation in the U.S., so this factor is unlikely to play a major role in the long run.</p>
<p>The main engine of America’s future diversity gains will be “cohort succession,” a process in which older majority-white generations are replaced by younger minority-majority generations. As shown in the charts below, which we created from U.S. Census Bureau population <a href="http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf">projections</a>, children and young adults, many of whom are the children of immigrants, are currently much more diverse than older adults. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153483/original/image-20170119-26539-1th1ymi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153483/original/image-20170119-26539-1th1ymi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153483/original/image-20170119-26539-1th1ymi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153483/original/image-20170119-26539-1th1ymi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153483/original/image-20170119-26539-1th1ymi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153483/original/image-20170119-26539-1th1ymi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153483/original/image-20170119-26539-1th1ymi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Fast-forward to 2050. Today’s older generations will have died. The more diverse younger generations will have grown up and had their own diverse children and grandchildren. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153484/original/image-20170119-26539-gbncp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153484/original/image-20170119-26539-gbncp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153484/original/image-20170119-26539-gbncp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153484/original/image-20170119-26539-gbncp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153484/original/image-20170119-26539-gbncp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153484/original/image-20170119-26539-gbncp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/153484/original/image-20170119-26539-gbncp3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>The seeds for future gains in diversity have already been planted.</p>
<h2>Fear and distrust</h2>
<p>Many Americans respond to these changes with <a href="https://thesocietypages.org/specials/the-whitelash-against-diversity/">fear</a> and <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9477.2007.00176.x/full">distrust</a>. Some whites have an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/89.4.1385">aversion</a> to living near people of color. A small number of no-majority places and other highly diverse municipalities and <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/10.1086/649498.pdf">neighborhoods</a> like the Chicago suburb of Calumet Park and the Los
Angeles suburbs of Lynwood and Monterey Park have already become more <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11113-014-9343-8">homogeneous</a>, as one minority group has grown and whites have moved away. These places are exceptions to the trend of growing diversity, but other communities may follow suit. Some people want to “turn back the clock” by limiting immigration, a sentiment <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/nov/09/politifact-sheet-donald-trumps-immigration-plan/">Donald Trump</a> tapped into during his presidential campaign. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/22/donald-trump-to-african-american-and-hispanic-voters-what-do-you-have-to-lose/?utm_term=.5b8485be6137">described</a> black and Hispanic communities as impoverished, dangerous inner-city neighborhoods. This was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/24/the-problem-with-trumps-question-to-black-voters-what-the-hell-do-you-have-to-lose/?utm_term=.5998eba676e7">an exaggeration</a>, but it may have stoked rural white voters’ <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/11/rural_americans_just_chose_a_president_who_won_t_help_them.html">fears</a> of racial-ethnic diversity. </p>
<p>Although all-minority communities are often disadvantaged, communities with <a href="http://www.russellsage.org/research/reports/racial-ethnic-diversity">high levels</a> of diversity with a mixture of racial and ethnic groups do not fit Trump’s image. Highly diverse communities are more common in <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40980-016-0030-8">coastal states</a> and across the South. They have larger populations and a critical mass of foreign-born inhabitants, both of which contribute to their reputation as comfort zones for minorities and immigrants. </p>
<p>Diverse communities also tend to offer attractive housing and labor market opportunities, including an abundant rental stock, higher median income and a job opportunities in a variety of occupations. Some are also hubs for <a href="https://s4.ad.brown.edu/Projects/Diversity/Data/Report/report08292012.pdf">government or military jobs</a>. Overall, the evidence suggests that highly diverse communities are good places to live, and often support industries that employ immigrants, and racial and ethnic minorities.</p>
<p>Throughout history, notions of who belongs in American society have <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674018136">expanded</a> again and again to incorporate new groups. History could repeat itself for today’s immigrants if they are given a fair chance. Many people fear immigrants and the social burdens they seem to bring with them, including poverty, limited education and low English proficiency. But this overlooks the many contributions immigrants make, and the fact that immigrants’ socioeconomic disadvantages will almost certainly <a href="https://www.russellsage.org/publications/parents-without-papers">diminish</a> if they are given equal opportunities in U.S. schools and workplaces.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69095/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Van Hook received funding for her research from the National Institutes of Health. She is affiliated with the Population Research Institute at the Pennsylvania State University and is a non-resident fellow of the Migration Policy Institute. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barrett Lee receives funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHHD), an agency within the U.S. National Institutes of Health. A grant from NICHHD has funded much of the diversity research referred to in the Conversation article. </span></em></p>Nine out of 10 rural places experienced increases in diversity from 1990 to 2010. Data show a more diverse future is guaranteed across all of America, and there’s no going back.Jennifer Van Hook, Liberal Arts Research Professor of Sociology and Demography, Penn StateBarrett Lee, Professor of Sociology and Demography, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/677212016-11-02T15:18:04Z2016-11-02T15:18:04ZTrump’s race problem could hand the Democrats a generation of voters<p>Throughout the US’s 2016 presidential election, the polls have consistently shown that Republican candidate Donald Trump lags well behind Democratic rival Hillary Clinton among the country’s ethnic minorities. The 2016 electorate is <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/">the most diverse in American history</a> and, if Clinton wins, this demographic change may be the deciding factor.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/the-demographic-groups-fueling-the-election/">Mid-October polling</a> showed that Clinton enjoyed a 79-point advantage over Trump among African-Americans, and is ahead by 28 points when it comes to Hispanic voters. Given what Trump has done over the past 18 months or so, this is anything but surprising. </p>
<p>Trump has accused undocumented Mexican migrants of rape, drugs and delinquency; questioned the integrity of a federal judge <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/03/politics/donald-trump-tapper-lead/">on the grounds of his Mexican heritage</a>; <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/12/politics/donald-trump-naacp-convention/">declined an invitation</a> to address the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People; insinuated that the Black Lives Matter movement has <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/18/politics/donald-trump-black-lives-matter/">instigated police killings</a>; and for years attacked the very legality of Barack Obama’s presidency on the basis of “<a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/09/politics/donald-trump-birther/">birther</a>” conspiracy theories.</p>
<p>This sort of talk is naturally anathema to the US’s Hispanic and African-American people and in the run-up to the election it’s become a grave strategic concern for the Republicans. </p>
<p>This is especially true when it comes to the Hispanic vote. Four key battleground states – <a href="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-florida-hispanic-poll-clinton-trump-20160922-story.html">Florida</a>, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/latino-vote-front-center-colorado-n664331">Colorado</a>, <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/">Nevada</a> and <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mexican-americans-are-reshaping-the-electoral-map-in-arizona-and-the-u-s/">Arizona</a> – have populations more than 20% Hispanic. Combined, these states carry <a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo">55 of the 270 electoral votes</a> Clinton needs to win, and so far, her prospects of capturing them all look good.</p>
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<p>Trump almost certainly cannot win the presidency without <a href="https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/florida-polls">Florida</a>’s 29 electoral votes. The so-called Sunshine State’s population is 41.3% Hispanic and African-American – meaning that Trump’s only hope is severely low turnout among black voters and newly arrived Hispanic people, many of whom <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-25/florida-puerto-rican-immigrants-clinton">have fled the Puerto Rican debt crisis</a>.</p>
<p>Trump also seems on course to lose <a href="https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/colorado-polls">Colorado</a>, which Obama carried in both 2008 and 2012. Several things make this one a tall order for Trump: <a href="http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/08">37.5% of its population is college-educated</a>, more than eight points higher than the <a href="https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/colorado-polls">national figure</a> of 29.3%, whereas Trump relies heavily on <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/01/a-divide-between-college-non-college-republicans/">less-educated voters</a> – and overall, more than a quarter of the state’s population is either Hispanic or African-American.</p>
<p>Clinton is running strong in neighbouring <a href="https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/nevada-polls">Nevada</a>, which has a substantial Hispanic population of 28.1% - and a state Obama carried twice. To the south, the usually deep red state of <a href="https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/arizona-polls">Arizona</a> has this year entered the “toss-up” column and the two main candidates are locked in a virtual tie. A recent Monmouth University poll indicated that <a href="https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2016/10/26/clinton-trump-neck-mccain-on-track-for-reelection/">65% of Arizona’s Hispanic voters favour Clinton over Trump</a>. </p>
<p>There’s also another critical state where non-white voters could make the difference. <a href="https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/north-carolina-polls">North Carolina</a> has an African-American population of 22.1%, and could certainly vote for Clinton if her campaign can drive up black turnout. Clinton has explicitly appealed to black voters throughout the campaign, lately <a href="http://wncn.com/2016/10/23/hillary-clinton-speaks-at-durham-church-holds-rally-in-raleigh/">accusing</a> Trump of not acknowledging the “vibrancy” within the African-American community in the process. <a href="http://heatst.com/politics/north-carolina-early-vote-numbers-show-huge-surge-for-hillary-clinton/">Early voting returns</a> show that her efforts may already be paying off.</p>
<h2>Long-term damage</h2>
<p>Since 2012, the number of eligible Latino voters has <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/14/key-facts-about-the-latino-vote-in-2016/">increased by 4m</a>, which accounts for 37% of the growth of eligible voters added to the US electorate. About 80% of the increase in the number of eligible Latino voters comes from the 3.2m US-born Latinos who’ve turned 18 since the last election.</p>
<p>These new voters will soon participate in the largest collective decision in American democracy for the very first time – and they are presented with a Republican candidate who has made a string of highly offensive remarks targeted specifically at them.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, young black voters who feel aggrieved over <a href="https://theconversation.com/policing-race-and-guns-a-criminologist-reports-from-charlotte-north-carolina-65982">police brutality</a> in America’s diverse inner-cities and <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-was-a-white-police-officer-in-the-us-i-know-how-deep-the-crisis-of-racism-is-62377">racial discrimination</a> in the criminal justice system are faced with a clear choice. One candidate has <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/20160709_Hillary_Clinton_cancels_Pa__event_after_Dallas_shooting.html">acknowledged the crisis</a> and articulated a <a href="https://www.themarshallproject.org/2016/07/31/the-overlooked-promise-in-hillary-clinton-s-speech#.PbRN37Ndb">strong racial justice platform</a>; the other would instruct his attorney-general to <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/18/politics/donald-trump-black-lives-matter/">investigate Black Lives Matter</a>.</p>
<p>Clinton is not adored by the masses – and the recent news of a renewed FBI probe into her emails may harm her with some voters. But the sheer strength of anti-Trump feeling among battleground states’ non-white citizens should help her pull together the 270 electoral votes she needs to win. </p>
<p>Republicans’ chief worry will be that Trump’s race problem will give the Democrats a lasting advantage. In an ever-diversifying liberal democracy where <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/4-top-voting-issues-in-2016-election/">63% of voters</a> say the treatment of racial and ethnic minorities is a “top issue” for them, Trump isn’t just likely to lose; he has in all likelihood cost the Republicans a generation of voters. </p>
<p>The untold damage he has inflicted on his party by running a campaign like this in modern-day America may endure for years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67721/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rakib Ehsan receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) for his PhD.</span></em></p>Donald Trump’s racist appeals to white fear may have doomed his campaign – and his party.Rakib Ehsan, Doctoral Researcher in Political Science, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/670372016-10-21T01:46:42Z2016-10-21T01:46:42ZDonald Trump and the rise of white identity in politics<p>Many political commentators <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/06/donald_trump_is_a_serial_exploiter_of_prejudice.html">credit</a> Donald Trump’s rise to white voters’ antipathy toward racial and ethnic minorities. However, we believe this focus on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/06/racial-anxiety-is-a-huge-driver-of-support-for-donald-trump-two-new-studies-find/">racial resentment</a> obscures another important aspect of racial thinking.</p>
<p>In a study of white Americans’ attitudes and candidate preferences, we found that Trump’s success reflects the rise of “white identity politics” – an attempt to protect the collective interests of white voters via the ballot box. Whereas racial prejudice refers to animosity toward other racial groups, white identity reflects a sense of connection to fellow white Americans.</p>
<p>We’re not the first to tie Trump’s candidacy to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/03/how-political-science-helps-explain-the-rise-of-trump-the-role-of-white-identity-and-grievances/">white identity politics</a>. But our data provide some of the clearest evidence that ongoing demographic changes in the United States are increasing white racial identity. White identity, in turn, is pushing white Americans to support Trump.</p>
<h2>White identity</h2>
<p>When we talk about white identity, we’re not referring to the <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/08/26/491452721/the-history-of-the-alt-right">alt-right</a> fringe, the <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/white-nationalist">white nationalist</a> movement or others who espouse racist beliefs. Rather, we’re talking about everyday white Americans who, perhaps for the first time, are racially conscious.</p>
<p>The concept of “garden variety” white racial identity <a href="https://wp.nyu.edu/knowleslab/wp-content/uploads/sites/670/2014/11/Deny-Distance-or-Dismantle.pdf">stands in contrast</a> to conventional wisdom. In the last three decades of <a href="http://www.temple.edu/tempress/titles/1338_reg.html">scholarship</a> on whiteness as a race, the prevailing view has been that most whites fail to notice their own whiteness. In a society dominated by white people, whiteness simply fades into the background. Just as fish fail to notice the water around them, whites are unlikely to think about how they are members of a distinct group.</p>
<p>Our research shows that the era of “white invisibility” is coming to a close. </p>
<p>Non-Hispanic whites are <a href="http://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-tps16.html">projected</a> to become a minority in the year 2044. This increasing diversity across the country is making whites’ own race <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/index.cfm?fa=buy.optionToBuy&id=1979-13208-001">harder</a> and <a href="https://wp.nyu.edu/knowleslab/wp-content/uploads/sites/670/2014/11/White-Selves.pdf">harder</a> to ignore. Political and social phenomena, from Barack Obama’s presidency to the Black Lives Matter movement, are making whiteness even more salient to white Americans.</p>
<h2>Trump and white identity politics</h2>
<p>As whites increasingly sense that their <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/trump-race-white-america-identity-crisis-214178">status</a> in society is <a href="http://news.stanford.edu/2016/05/09/perceived-threats-racial-status-drive-white-americans-support-tea-party-stanford-scholar-says/">falling</a>, white racial identity is becoming politicized. Trump’s promise to “make America great again” speaks to these anxieties by recalling a past in which white people dominated every aspect of politics and society. That’s why media outlets from <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/trump-to-transform-gop-into-white-identity-party.html">New York Magazine</a> to <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439048/trumps-nationalism-white-identity-politics-brand-name">The National Review</a> have dubbed Trump an “ethnonationalist” candidate.</p>
<p>Hillary Clinton <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/05/23/what-hillary-clintons-latest-slogan-were-stronger-together-really-says-about-her-candidacy/?utm_term=.90f3593e6b9a">counters</a> Trump’s exclusionary rhetoric with her message that all Americans are “Stronger Together.”</p>
<p>To test our ideas about Trump and white identity politics, we surveyed a nationally representative sample of about 1,700 white Americans. The survey covered racial identities, attitudes and political preferences. In examining the relationship between white identity and ethnic diversity, we chose to focus on an ethnic minority of particular salience in contemporary politics: Hispanics. More than any other group, Hispanics have been in the Trump campaign’s <a href="https://youtu.be/C6QEqoYgQxw">crosshairs</a>.</p>
<p>Do whites from heavily Hispanic neighborhoods show stronger white racial identity? To measure identity, we used a widely used <a href="https://www.rug.nl/staff/m.van.zomeren/leach_van_zomeren_et_al_2008.pdf">questionnaire</a>. On a five-point scale, participants rated their agreement with items such as “Being a white person is an important part of how I see myself” and “I feel solidarity with other white people.” As shown in the graph below, there is a positive relationship between exposure to Hispanics and white respondents’ sense of racial identity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141699/original/image-20161013-3958-106engi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">White identity is strongest in neighborhoods with a large Hispanic population.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And does white identity lead to support for Donald Trump? We examined the relationship between white identity and respondents’ likelihood of supporting Trump for the presidency versus Hillary Clinton or several Republican primary challengers. Consistent with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/03/how-political-science-helps-explain-the-rise-of-trump-the-role-of-white-identity-and-grievances/">others’ analyses</a>, white identity strongly predicts a preference for Trump.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141700/original/image-20161013-3982-knbyey.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Strong white identity predicts support for Donald Trump.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whites at the high end of the racial identity scale are more than four times as likely to support Trump than those at the low end of the scale. Perhaps that’s because whites highest in racial identity are also the ones most likely to harbor negative attitudes against Latinos. Indeed, we found white identity was significantly correlated with another characteristic – prejudice. </p>
<p>However, differences in prejudice don’t explain the relationship between white identity and Trump support. The pattern in the figure above was tested while statistically controlling for levels of anti-Hispanic prejudice. Because the relationship between identity and support for Trump remains strong, we are confident that white identity independently predicts greater Trump support.</p>
<p>We’ve seen that living close to Hispanics leads whites to develop a strong sense of racial identity and that strong racial identity is associated with support for Donald Trump. We should therefore expect whites in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods support Trump more often than those in neighborhoods with fewer Hispanics. This prediction gains credence from <a href="http://people.hmdc.harvard.edu/%7Erenos/papers/EnosTrains/EnosTrains.pdf">work</a> by political scientist Ryan Enos, who finds that everyday exposure to Latinos can increase support for restrictive immigration policies.</p>
<p>Whites’ support for Donald Trump is, in fact, greatest in areas with a large Hispanic population.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/141702/original/image-20161013-3979-1h471sp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Whites’ support for Donald Trump is greatest in areas with a large Hispanic population.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These findings leave open a crucial question: Do whites in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods support Trump because they tend to be high in white identity? Using a statistical approach called “mediation analysis,” we tested whether white identity accounted for the relationship between exposure to Hispanics and support for Trump. We found that identity does indeed serve as a significant link between Hispanic exposure and Trump support.</p>
<h2>Beyond Trump</h2>
<p>Trump, despite his outsize importance as a candidate and symbol, will eventually fade from the political scene. We therefore sought to examine the interplay of demographics and identity beyond the context of his candidacy. Specifically, we asked respondents for their views on white identity politics itself.</p>
<p>We had participants rate their agreement with a series of statements. For example, “There is nothing wrong with a white person choosing to support a political candidate because that candidate is white” and “Blacks, Latinos, and Asians engage in ‘identity politics,’ and there’s nothing wrong with whites doing the same.”</p>
<p>Exactly the same patterns emerged for these questions as for Trump support: Endorsement of white identity politics was highest in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods and was strongly correlated with white racial identity. These results suggest that America’s growing ethnic diversity is creating a politicized form of white identity that has clear repercussions for future elections.</p>
<p>Why does it matter that whites’ politics are driven by concerns about the interests of their racial group? It suggests that racial bias increasingly reflects attention to the welfare of one’s own group rather than animus toward other groups. These collective concerns are only going to become more pronounced as the nation becomes more diverse.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://wp.nyu.edu/knowleslab/wp-content/uploads/sites/670/2014/10/Effron-Knowles-2015.pdf">research</a> in social psychology suggests that when whites engage in discrimination based on their perceived collective interests, it’s hard to convince them that such discrimination is wrong. After all, doesn’t every group have a right to prioritize its own members? We believe our results portend increasing difficulty in achieving the democratic aim of getting race out of American politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67037/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric D. Knowles receives funding from the Russell Sage Foundation for research on racial attitudes, identity, and political behavior. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linda Tropp receives funding from the Russell Sage Foundation for research on relations between U.S.-born and immigrant communities.</span></em></p>A survey of voters shows white racial identity is on the rise. Psychologists explain how it’s affecting the presidential election and how it will change American politics of the future.Eric D. Knowles, Associate Professor of Psychology, New York UniversityLinda R. Tropp, Professor of Social Psychology, UMass AmherstLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/667372016-10-20T10:04:12Z2016-10-20T10:04:12ZReligious feelings could sway the vote in 2016 election<p>Political scientists have long noted that <a href="http://yalebooks.com/book/9780300103922/who-governs">politics is a competition</a> between groups with diverse and competing interests. During campaigns, candidates actively attempt to sway certain groups and vilify others in order to garner support. </p>
<p>In this year’s election, scholars and commentators have argued that the success of Donald Trump’s campaign is a consequence of pitting racial groups against each other. Specifically, they argue that Trump is <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/14/us/politics/donald-trump-white-identity.html">appealing to whites</a> who feel they are losing their influence to other racial and ethnic groups. Scholars have also noted that the election of Barack Obama may have actually <a href="http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo22961444.html">increased racialized</a> thinking among whites. </p>
<p>There is considerable anxiety among whites about American national identity. The <a href="http://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Who-Are-We/Samuel-P-Huntington/9780684870540">growth</a> of the Hispanic population has created questions about what it means to be an American. Further, the increasing number attacks on U.S. and European cities has heightened a sense of a domestic and international conflict with Muslims.</p>
<p>So, it is not surprising that since launching his campaign in June 2015, much of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric has addressed these <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/donald-trump-2016-announcement-10-best-lines-119066">themes</a>. His early rhetoric focused on immigration from Mexico, but subsequently broadened to include <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/11/22/donald-trumps-outrageous-claim-that-thousands-of-new-jersey-muslims-celebrated-the-911-attacks">anti-Muslim rhetoric</a>. He speculated <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2015/10/trump-gets-refugee-numbers-wrong/">Syrian refugees</a> were terrorists and asserted that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/11/22/donald-trumps-outrageous-claim-that-thousands-of-new-jersey-muslims-celebrated-the-911-attacks">Muslims celebrated</a> the collapse of the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001. </p>
<p>While racial and religious hostility has often been noted as a factor in Trump’s support, it has not necessarily been clear which of these is the most important: Is it race or religion? </p>
<p>My research looks at the role religious feelings are playing in this election. What I have found is that white Republican and white Democrat feelings toward Muslims is strongly associated with their candidate choice and their willingness to vote. </p>
<h2>Here’s how I did the study</h2>
<p>I used data from the <a href="http://www.electionstudies.org/studypages/anes_pilot_2016/anes_pilot_2016.htm">American National Election Study (ANES) 2016 pilot</a> to find out how group preferences were playing a role in support for Trump. The survey was conducted between Jan. 22 and 28, 2016, just before the first primary.</p>
<p>To demonstrate the extent to which whites prefer their racial group over Muslims, blacks and Hispanics, I used a measure referred to as <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2110816?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">polar affect</a>. To create the measure, I individually subtracted the Muslims’, blacks’ and Hispanics’ <a href="https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/archive/html/poll/features/feeling/slide1.html">feeling thermometer scores</a> from the whites’ feeling thermometer scores. Because my primary concern was to see how whites perceived other racial and religious groups and how that influenced their support for candidates, this analysis is limited only to white participants.</p>
<p>Negative scores indicated whites prefer the minority group over their racial group, zero indicated indifference, and positive scores indicated whites prefer their racial group over the minority group. For instance, if a respondent scores whites at 80 and Muslims at 50, she would be considered to prefer whites 30 points more than Muslims. </p>
<h2>Here is what I found</h2>
<p>My results show a preference among whites for their own racial group over these minority groups. What is noteworthy is that the preference was significantly higher when Muslims were the comparison group.</p>
<p>One reason for this could be attributed to the survey being administered six weeks after the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/us/tashfeen-malik-islamic-state.html">San Bernardino terrorist attack</a> in which 14 people were killed and 22 were seriously injured. However, that might not offer a full explanation – <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/9/12/12882796/trump-supporters-racist-deplorables">negative attitudes toward Muslims</a> have been fairly consistent throughout this election.</p>
<p>These preferences were even more stark when I compared partisans: Republicans expressed the strongest preference for whites over Muslims, blacks and Hispanics, compared to independents and Democrats. These relationships held even when accounting for demographics, such as age, sex, education and income.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142229/original/image-20161018-15089-t9plfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142229/original/image-20161018-15089-t9plfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142229/original/image-20161018-15089-t9plfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142229/original/image-20161018-15089-t9plfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142229/original/image-20161018-15089-t9plfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142229/original/image-20161018-15089-t9plfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142229/original/image-20161018-15089-t9plfq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Preference for whites over minority groups.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">2016 ANES Pilot</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, a strong preference for whites over Muslims was the most important relationship. This preference for whites over Muslims benefited Trump and hurt Clinton. </p>
<p>Clinton had a 47.7 percent chance of being chosen by whites indifferent to Muslims, Trump had only a 29.9 percent chance of being the choice. This reversed when it came to whites with a strong preference: Trump’s chances doubled, whereas Clinton’s chances dropped by half.</p>
<p>Democrats, with a strong preference for whites over Muslims, are less likely to choose Clinton as their presidential vote choice. These voters do not move to Donald Trump; rather, they chose a third-party candidate or abstention. </p>
<p>Republicans, with a strong preference for whites over Muslims, have an 84.4 percent chance of choosing Trump. Further, they have virtually no chance of abstaining. </p>
<p>These results reveal that a strong preference for whites over Muslims energized Republicans, but deflated Democrats.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142232/original/image-20161018-15132-16h4tdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142232/original/image-20161018-15132-16h4tdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142232/original/image-20161018-15132-16h4tdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142232/original/image-20161018-15132-16h4tdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142232/original/image-20161018-15132-16h4tdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142232/original/image-20161018-15132-16h4tdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142232/original/image-20161018-15132-16h4tdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142232/original/image-20161018-15132-16h4tdk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Presidential vote choice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">2016 ANES Pilot</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Is this about race or religion?</h2>
<p>Given the association between attitudes toward Muslims and support for Donald Trump in this election, one could ask whether this is a story about religion or race. </p>
<p>What is important to note is while the importance of religion has decreased in other Western industrialized nations, the <a href="http://www.simonandschuster.com/books/American-Grace/Robert-D-Putnam/9781416566731">decline has been much slower in America</a>. Religion remains a critical part of understanding American identity.</p>
<p>It is, in fact, possible that exposure to terrorist attacks and international conflicts might have increased importance of religion in America. In 1996, 50.9 percent of white Americans endorsed the idea that it was important for one to be a Christian in order to be an American. But, in 2004, 64.4 percent of Americans <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-race-ethnicity-and-politics/article/proud-to-be-an-american-the-changing-relationship-of-national-pride-and-identity/5AAD8E190D5958F4A887006569C6DD53">endorsed that criterion.</a> </p>
<p>Religion is also tightly intertwined with race in America. Many of the shameful periods of American history, such as slavery and Jim Crow, were <a href="http://us.macmillan.com/racereligionandthecontinuingamericandilemma/cericlincoln">justified in religious terms</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, data from the 2016 American National Election Study (ANES) pilot demonstrate that whites who believe they are being discriminated against are also likely to believe American Christians are being discriminated against. These results hold even when examining whites who do not identify as Christian. </p>
<p>All of these issues make it difficult to disentangle racial and religious attitudes.</p>
<h2>A language of hostility?</h2>
<p>Overt racial hostility <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7090.html">is no longer acceptable</a>; however, certain forms of religious hostility may be. </p>
<p>For example, critics of President Obama have shied away from using his race, but a significant portion of the electorate has used his religion. </p>
<p>The 2016 ANES Pilot found that 37.8 percent of whites believed President Obama to be a Muslim. Of those who held this belief, 71.8 percent chose Trump over Clinton. </p>
<p>Scholars have paid close attention to the role of racial hostility in elections. However, this election has demonstrated a need to pay closer attention to the role of religious hostility as well as how the experience influences the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/17/politics/muslim-americans-2016/">political and social engagement of religious minorities</a> – irrespective of the election results.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66737/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric McDaniel receives funding from National Science Foundation and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation</span></em></p>How white Republicans and white Democrats feel about Muslims is influencing their candidate choice as well as willingness to vote in the 2016 election.Eric McDaniel, Associate Professor of Political Science, The University of Texas at AustinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.