tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/housing-376/articlesHousing – The Conversation2024-03-25T18:23:48Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2264172024-03-25T18:23:48Z2024-03-25T18:23:48ZNew house prices are rising rapidly despite a flat market – we need to diversify what we build and who builds it<p>In the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-january-2024/uk-house-price-index-england-january-2024">latest figures</a> on UK house prices, new builds are particularly eye-catching. The price for such homes has increased by 17% in the past year, while the average price for existing homes cooled by 2.4%. </p>
<p>While these figures may grab attention for a day or two, there is little awareness of the long-term trend, particularly for new builds produced by the nation’s biggest housebuilders. </p>
<p>For ten years <a href="https://www.shu.ac.uk/centre-regional-economic-social-research/projects/all-projects/large-uk-housebuilders">we have been</a> tracking the performance and finances of the <a href="https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/story.aspx?storyCode=5115234&preview=1&hash=DCD1D60A98A86CC7112B45D1E8463F7C">UK’s largest housebuilders</a>. We know that around the time of the global financial crisis in 2008, the price of new builds from the biggest firms broadly tracked the average UK house price. </p>
<p>Since then, nearly all have increased their prices above the wider market, meaning these homes sell for roughly 8% more than the average house price. </p>
<p>Over the past couple of decades, there have been been fundamental changes in how the major housebuilders operate. In our <a href="https://www.shu.ac.uk/centre-regional-economic-social-research/publications/the-invisible-hand-that-keeps-on-taking">recent report</a>, The Invisible Hand That Keeps On Taking, we showed that in 2005 these firms paid out 16% of pre-tax profits as dividends, amounting to just over £5,000 per home built. In 2022 their dividends were 47% of profits or £22,000 per home. </p>
<p>This has happened as the ownership of these organisations has slowly changed over time, with global asset and investment managers becoming their major shareholders. </p>
<p>Large housebuilders have been able to pay historically unprecedented levels of dividends through a combination of increasing house prices and keeping certain costs down (for instance on land). Evidence suggests some builders have actually been <a href="https://twitter.com/BuiltPlace/status/1428666082936635392">reducing their land costs</a> over time. </p>
<p>A few weeks ago, the UK government’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) published a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/housebuilding-market-study">major report</a> into the housebuilding industry. It concluded that the under-delivery of new homes relates to the planning system creating uncertainties and delays, and also the UK’s speculative housebuilding model. On that model, the CMA stated:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The evidence shows that private developers produce houses at a rate at which they can be sold without needing to reduce their prices, rather than diversifying the types and numbers of homes they build to meet the needs of different communities (for example providing more affordable housing).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This strongly suggests that to deliver the homes we need, we must diversify the housing types that are built, and this will involve changing who builds. Boosting development by housing associations and other providers of affordable homes, alongside that of self-builders and community-led housing groups, is one of the few routes available to increase the provision of the homes that are actually needed. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/self-build-and-custom-housebuilding">custom and self-build housing</a> accounts for only 7% of new-build homes in the UK, compared to over 50% in Germany. This <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6128c585e90e07053ec5e447/Bacon_Review.pdf">market can be developed</a> by making best use of existing legislation, which requires local authorities to provide enough planning permissions to meet demand for self-build homes. </p>
<p><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65d8baed6efa83001ddcc5cd/Housebuilding_market_study_final_report.pdf">The CMA notes</a> that such forms of non-speculative housebuilding may result in “a lower return on investment which could feed through to lower build prices”. If we are to address the affordability of new housing, we will likely need these forms of development.</p>
<h2>Housebuilders’ profits</h2>
<p>The CMA is certainly alighting on an important issue here. However, we would also argue that it has failed to grasp the changes in how the major housebuilders operate, which directly affects what they build and how much it costs. </p>
<p>The CMA’s report found that the builders’ profits were above ‘normal’ for most of the 2010s, but crucially concluded this is just a feature of the cyclical nature of housebuilding. </p>
<p>And yet its own analysis suggests that for 12 of the last 20 years, returns were greater than a “normal” rate of profit. As cycles go, that’s very favourable, and we think it reflects a step change in value extraction from the firms in question. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.shu.ac.uk/centre-regional-economic-social-research/publications/the-invisible-hand-that-keeps-on-taking">We estimate</a> that over £16 billion was returned to shareholders in the eight largest firms between 2005 and 2022. This represents a major missed opportunity to reinvest in building more homes, and to address other issues that the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65d8baed6efa83001ddcc5cd/Housebuilding_market_study_final_report.pdf">CMA highlights</a>, including a lack of innovation, issues with the quality of many new homes and the slow adoption of measures to reduce carbon emissions.</p>
<p>Given the significant changes in the price of new-build housing, we should try to understand the real dynamics behind it. If the UK wants to deliver more homes that are affordable to people on modest incomes, then it needs to diversify what is built and, crucially, who builds it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the middle of a cost of living crisis, new-build prices are up by nearly a fifth in the past year alone.Tom Archer, Senior Research Fellow, the Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research, Sheffield Hallam UniversityIan Cole, Emeritus Professor of Housing Studies, Sheffield Hallam UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2237302024-03-24T19:06:28Z2024-03-24T19:06:28ZCameron Murray’s ‘terrifically unfair’ answer to our housing woes resembles a lottery, not the serious reform we need<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/583332/original/file-20240321-17-dna2ij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3988%2C2250&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pat Whelen/Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/housing/estimating-homelessness-census/latest-release">120,000 people homeless each night</a> and <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/housing-homelessness/report/housing-homelessness.pdf">one in five low-income private renters</a> spending more than half their income on rent, it is clear Australia urgently needs a housing policy change. A new book by economist Cameron Murray, <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Cameron-K.-Murray-Great-Housing-Hijack-9781761470851">The Great Housing Hijack</a>, claims to provide a guide for just that. </p>
<p>Murray is spot on about one thing: the housing policy debate has been hijacked. As he notes, the breathless reporting of every fluctuation in the market is unenlightening. People with a stake in property markets flood the debate with spurious claims.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Murray’s book only adds to the cacophony. His analysis is inconsistent with the evidence, and his proposed solution yet another distraction.</p>
<p>But we can’t give up in despair. It is important to sift critically through the research and advocate for what works. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Review: The Great Housing Hijack – Cameron K. Murray (Allen & Unwin)</em></p>
<hr>
<p>The most controversial argument in The Great Housing Hijack is that planning and zoning rules do not change how much new housing is built, just the location: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The planning system and its zoning rules do not regulate how fast new homes are built. There are no speed limits. What town plans do is regulate where different types of immobile buildings can go. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Murray says developers will only ever build a limited number of homes at a time, regardless of planning permissiveness. He argues they will refrain from flooding the housing market. Instead, he says, they will often prefer to just hold on to land, keeping the option of developing it in future. </p>
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<p>This claim is based on shaky research. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11146-020-09815-z">Murray’s model assumes</a> individual land owners have pricing power: if they build too many homes at once, they will undercut their own prices. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1051137720300449">His analysis uses data</a> on just eight developers, who built 9% of new homes over the period studied.</p>
<p>In fact, the construction sector is <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/895-Competition-in-Australia-Too-little-of-a-good-thing-.pdf">not highly concentrated</a> and the urban infill market has <a href="http://petertulip.com/misunderstandings.pdf">many players</a>, so each individual developer has little market power.</p>
<p>Murray’s model also assumes it makes sense for developers to hang on to empty land for a long time – in the hope, for example, that its value will increase if upzoned in the future. But that just suggests another benefit of zoning reform – taking away the prize for waiting – although Murray is right that <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/the-great-australian-nightmare/">taxing the windfall gains from upzoning is a good idea</a>.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the weight of <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/housing-affordability-re-imagining-the-australian-dream/">evidence</a> suggests planning and zoning do matter for housing supply. They influence how quickly the supply of new homes can respond to changes in incomes and preferences. <a href="https://www.productivity.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-12/202305_02-building-more-homes-where-people-want-to-live.pdf">Rents are lower</a> when housing supply is more responsive.</p>
<p>The location – not just the quantity – of housing is also important. When planning and zoning rules force us into urban sprawl, our cities are <a href="https://www.productivity.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-02/What-we-gain-by-building-more-homes-in-the-right-places.pdf">less vibrant and productive</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-yimby-movement-is-spreading-around-the-world-what-does-it-mean-for-australias-housing-crisis-219313">The YIMBY movement is spreading around the world. What does it mean for Australia's housing crisis?</a>
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<h2>Supply is crucial</h2>
<p>Murray argues that even if more housing were built, the average household would not end up spending any less on housing:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>aliens could suddenly and immediately construct a million extra homes in Australia, or about 10 per cent more [than] at present, and within a few years rental prices would still be on average 20 per cent of household income.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This implies that if Australians could suddenly access cheaper housing, they would spend all the income freed up on even better housing. But <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00181-016-1095-3">the evidence suggests</a> demand for housing is fairly inelastic, meaning the effect of price reductions is unlikely to be completely offset by an insatiable desire for more housing.</p>
<p>Moreover, Murray’s focus on average rent-to-income ratios ignores the ways boosting supply makes Australians – especially lower-income renters – better off.</p>
<p>If housing becomes cheaper, many people will stay where they are and spend the extra money on other goods. That is pretty important, when too many households are choosing between <a href="https://reports.foodbank.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023_Foodbank_Hunger_Report_IPSOS-Report.pdf">rent and food</a>.</p>
<p>Others will use the opportunity to move to better, safer homes. <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/housing-homelessness/report/housing-homelessness.pdf">15% of private renters</a> live in homes with major structural problems. The rate is <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renters/private-renters.pdf">even higher</a> for single parents and people with disabilities.</p>
<p>If I was living in a mouldy room in a decrepit share house, then after a supply boost was able to move to a smart one-bedroom apartment for the same price, I would be better off, even if I was still spending 20% of my income on rent.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urbanisation-and-tax-have-driven-the-housing-crisis-its-hard-to-see-a-way-back-but-covid-provides-an-important-lesson-223548">Urbanisation and tax have driven the housing crisis. It's hard to see a way back but COVID provides an important lesson</a>
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<hr>
<h2>How do we escape the policy quagmire?</h2>
<p>Murray proposes bypassing the private market altogether with a scheme called HouseMate. The federal government would buy or repurpose land, build homes, then sell them at a discounted price to Australians who do not own property. </p>
<p>The sale price would cover only the construction cost, not the cost of land, so it would provide a big subsidy for the people lucky enough to be chosen. Buyers would get to enjoy living in a discounted home, and could resell (to others eligible for HouseMate) after five years of ownership, pocketing most of the gains. But the catch is, there would only be a limited number of places available each year.</p>
<p>To build the homes, Murray suggests the government could compulsorily acquire sites, but that is not likely to fly at scale.</p>
<p>The government would probably end up buying most of the land at market rates. <a href="https://osf.io/nxq2u/download">Murray estimates</a> that it would cost the federal budget about A$3 billion to provide 30,000 places each year, although the government may eventually recoup some of that cost by taking a share of the capital gains from resales, and lending to participating buyers, as Murray also proposes.</p>
<p>Another use for that money might be boosting Commonwealth Rent Assistance: $3 billion a year would be enough to increase the maximum payment by at least 50%. </p>
<p>Rent Assistance is targeted to the most vulnerable renters. It is available to everyone who is renting and receiving an eligible income support payment. About 900,000 households currently receiving the maximum rate would benefit from an increase of <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/slow-migration-to-help-renters/">up to $2,500 a year</a>, helping to compensate for the hit rising rents have made to their household budgets.</p>
<p>In contrast, the only eligibility criteria for Murray’s HouseMate would be age; there would be no means testing. Anyone who did not own property would be mad not to apply. With a limited number of places each year, getting picked for HouseMate would be like winning the lottery – and indeed Murray floats the idea that “queuing could be managed using lotteries”.</p>
<p>This is a terrifically unfair way to distribute housing help: someone earning $250,000 a year would have the same chance of winning as someone earning less than $50,000. Many people struggling to afford housing would miss out altogether. </p>
<p>There is a reason governments don’t usually model welfare programs on PowerBall.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-help-to-buy-scheme-will-help-but-wont-solve-the-housing-crisis-224956">The Help to Buy scheme will help but won't solve the housing crisis</a>
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</p>
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<h2>We already know what governments need to do</h2>
<p>We do not need grand lotteries with catchy names in housing policy. Despite the distractions and debates, we already know what needs to change. The good news is that governments have started down the right path.</p>
<p>The federal government <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/labor-lifts-rent-assistance-by-15pc-20230505-p5d62f">increased Commonwealth Rent Assistance by 15%</a> in 2023. It has established the <a href="https://www.housingaustralia.gov.au/housing-australia-future-fund-facility-and-national-housing-accord-facility">$10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund</a> to fund 30,000 new social and affordable homes in the next five years. These are big steps in the right direction, although there is <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/2024-year-of-the-renter/">still much work to do.</a></p>
<p>The federal government has also put <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/housing-policy/accord">$3.5 billion</a> on the table to encourage the states to reform land-use planning rules to get more homes built, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/national-cabinets-new-housing-plan-could-fix-our-rental-crisis/">the only real long-term fix to our housing woes</a>.</p>
<p>State governments, <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/news/new-planning-rules-fast-track-low-and-mid-rise-housing">especially in New South Wales</a>, are starting to take action to relax land‑use planning rules and get more housing built.</p>
<p>What governments need to do now is follow through on what we know will work, not throw out the evidence book. Let’s not give in to the din.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223730/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions the Federal and Victorian Governments, BHP Billiton, and NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Coates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Governments need to follow through on what we know will work, not give in to the housing policy din.Elizabeth Baldwin, Associate researcher, Grattan InstituteBrendan Coates, Program Director, Economic Policy, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254462024-03-18T19:21:22Z2024-03-18T19:21:22ZWhat’s the best way to ease rents and improve housing affordability? We modelled 4 of the government’s biggest programs<p><em>This article is part of The Conversation’s series examining the housing crisis. Read the other articles in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/housing-series-2024-153769">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Australian state and federal governments spend money in many ways to ease rental stress and get more Australians into home ownership. Four of the most prominent are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://firsthome.gov.au/">first homeowner grants</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://unohomeloans.com.au/articles/shared-equity-schemes">shared equity schemes</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.revenue.nsw.gov.au/taxes-duties-levies-royalties/transfer-duty/first-home-buyers">first homeowner stamp duty exemptions</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/housing-support/programmes-services/commonwealth-rent-assistance">rent assistance</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Our team at Victoria University’s Centre of Policy Studies has modelled the economic impact of each of them in a way that allows their outcomes to be <a href="https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-344.pdf">compared</a>.</p>
<p>The bad news is that we’ve found none of the four can simultaneously lift affordability for renters, lift affordability for owners, get more Australians into home ownership, and boost economic efficiency.</p>
<p>The good news is we’ve found a mix that could work well.</p>
<p>We used Victoria University’s regional economic model to compare the effect of spending an extra A$500 million on the variant of each of the programs presently available in Victoria.</p>
<p>To better assess the economic impact, we assumed the extra $500 million was paid for by an increase in taxation.</p>
<h2>Grants and shared equity</h2>
<p>We found first homeowner grants improve affordability for owners, slightly improve affordability for renters, and slightly increase home ownership rates, but come with a heavy economic cost.</p>
<p>The cost to <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/economic_efficiency.asp">economic efficiency</a> amounts to about 20 cents for every dollar spent. Economic efficiency measures the extent to which inputs such as labour, land and capital are allocated to their most valuable uses.</p>
<p>Importantly, that 20 cents in the dollar cost is the economic cost of the spending, not the cost of raising the revenue to fund it.</p>
<p>With the average economic cost of state government taxation in the vicinity of <a href="https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-289.pdf">30 cents</a> per dollar raised, that means every extra dollar raised to be spent on a first home buyer grant has an economic cost of about 50 cents, making it an economically expensive way to get people into homes.</p>
<p>Shared equity schemes in which the government part-owns a home with a buyer have similar costs, but are better at getting people into their own homes.</p>
<h2>Stamp duty discounts</h2>
<p>Our modelling finds that stamp duty discounts for first home buyers have an economic benefit. This is because stamp duty is an extraordinarily inefficient tax that makes it <a href="https://theconversation.com/swapping-stamp-duty-for-land-tax-would-push-down-house-prices-but-push-up-apartment-prices-new-modelling-finds-184381">harder for people to move</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the model also finds stamp duty discounts will make home ownership even less affordable by pushing up property prices, and make it only slightly easier for the first home owners able to get the discounts. </p>
<h2>Rent assistance</h2>
<p>Rent assistance is delivered by the Commonwealth rather than states to Australians in receipt of Commonwealth benefits. </p>
<p>Our study finds its economic costs are low, just 5 cents for every dollar spent, meaning that raising extra tax and spending it on rent assistance should have a total economic cost of about 35 cents for each dollar raised and spent.</p>
<p>We find it has a significant effect in making rent more affordable, but causes home ownership rates to fall, because it tips the balance for financially strained households in favour of renting rather than buying.</p>
<h2>What works best</h2>
<p>If making shelter more affordable for low-income earners is the number one priority, by far the best way to do it is to boost rent assistance.</p>
<p>While the benefits come at the expense of home ownership, for the renters receiving them, they are worth having.</p>
<p>But rent assistance is federally administered. For a state government, the best way to help both owners and renters at the lowest economic cost appears to be a mix of two thirds first home buyer grants and one third stamp duty discounts. </p>
<p>Our modelling suggests such a blend would have a negligible impact on economic efficiency and home affordability, while allowing more owners to rent and, as a result, make renting more affordable. </p>
<p>However, it would be costly. From a national perspective, the same improvement in rental affordability could be achieved for less than one-tenth the financial cost if the Commonwealth were to fund additional rent assistance.</p>
<p>If nothing else, our modelling proves these decisions are difficult.</p>
<p>No single tool is perfect, but using the right mix of them can help – all the more so if the states and Commonwealth can work together. Our estimates can help.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-help-to-buy-scheme-will-help-but-wont-solve-the-housing-crisis-224956">The Help to Buy scheme will help but won't solve the housing crisis</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225446/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the Commonwealth, the best measure is rent assistance. For the states, it’s a mix of two-thirds first homebuyer grants and one-third stamp duty discounts.Jason Nassios, Associate Professor, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria UniversityJames Giesecke, Professor, Centre of Policy Studies and the Impact Project, Victoria UniversityXianglong Locky Liu, Research fellow, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249012024-03-15T13:32:04Z2024-03-15T13:32:04ZFuel poverty in England is probably 2.5 times higher than government statistics show<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580730/original/file-20240308-28-m97ekg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/white-radiator-heater-beside-brown-wooden-window-ihx1LdtnGXw">Julian Hochgesang|Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The cap set on how much UK energy suppliers can charge for domestic gas and electricity is set to fall by 15% from April 1 2024. Despite this, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-uk-energy-crisis-plan-will-affect-bills-and-price-inflation-an-economist-explains-190586">prices</a> remain shockingly high. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-energy-prices-december-2023">average household energy bill</a> in 2023 was £2,592 a year, dwarfing the pre-pandemic average of £1,308 in 2019.</p>
<p>The term <a href="https://theconversation.com/fuel-poverty-as-government-support-dries-up-communities-are-taking-action-221282">“fuel poverty”</a> refers to a household’s ability to afford the energy required to maintain adequate warmth and the use of other essential appliances. Quite how it is measured varies from country to country. In England, the government uses what is known as the low income low energy efficiency (Lilee) indicator. </p>
<p>Since energy costs started rising sharply in 2021, UK households’ spending powers have plummeted. It would be reasonable to assume that these <a href="https://theconversation.com/cost-of-living-crisis-its-not-enough-to-know-how-many-people-are-below-the-poverty-line-we-need-to-measure-poverty-depth-180450">increasingly hostile economic conditions</a> have caused fuel poverty rates to rise. </p>
<p>However, according to the Lilee fuel poverty metric, in England there have only been modest changes in fuel poverty incidence year on year. In fact, government statistics show a slight <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-fuel-poverty-statistics-report-2024">decrease in the nationwide rate</a>, from 13.2% in 2020 to 13.0% in 2023. </p>
<p>Our recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114014">study</a> suggests that these figures are incorrect. We estimate the rate of fuel poverty in England to be around 2.5 times higher than what the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fuel-poverty-statistics">government’s statistics</a> show, because the criteria underpinning the Lilee estimation process leaves out a large number of financially vulnerable households which, in reality, are unable to afford and maintain adequate warmth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Blocks of flats in London." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580731/original/file-20240308-24-pw8ikc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580731/original/file-20240308-24-pw8ikc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580731/original/file-20240308-24-pw8ikc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580731/original/file-20240308-24-pw8ikc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580731/original/file-20240308-24-pw8ikc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580731/original/file-20240308-24-pw8ikc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580731/original/file-20240308-24-pw8ikc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Household fuel poverty in England is calculated on the basis of the energy efficiency of the home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/a-street-with-cars-and-buildings-along-it-JqT3PsJ7Chc">Igor Sporynin|Unsplash</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Energy security</h2>
<p>In 2022, we undertook an in-depth analysis of Lilee fuel poverty in Greater London. First, we combined fuel poverty, housing and employment data to provide an estimate of vulnerable homes which are omitted from Lilee statistics. </p>
<p>We also surveyed 2,886 residents of Greater London about their experiences of fuel poverty during the winter of 2022. We wanted to gauge energy security, which refers to a type of self-reported fuel poverty. Both parts of the study aimed to demonstrate the potential flaws of the Lilee definition. </p>
<p>Introduced in 2019, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sustainable-warmth-protecting-vulnerable-households-in-england">Lilee metric</a> considers a household to be “fuel poor” if it meets two criteria. First, after accounting for energy expenses, its income must fall below the poverty line (which is 60% of median income). </p>
<p>Second, the property must have an energy performance certificate (EPC) rating of D–G (the lowest four ratings). The government’s apparent logic for the Lilee metric is to quicken the net-zero transition of the housing sector. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sustainable-warmth-protecting-vulnerable-households-in-england">Sustainable Warmth</a>, the policy paper that defined the Lilee approach, the government says that EPC A–C-rated homes “will not significantly benefit from energy-efficiency measures”. Hence, the focus on fuel poverty in D–G-rated properties. </p>
<p>Generally speaking, EPC A–C-rated homes (those with the highest three ratings) are considered energy efficient, while D–G-rated homes are deemed inefficient. The problem with how Lilee fuel poverty is measured is that the process assumes that EPC A–C-rated homes are too “energy efficient” to be considered fuel poor: the main focus of the fuel poverty assessment is a characteristic of the property, not the occupant’s financial situation.</p>
<p>In other words, by this metric, anyone living in an energy-efficient home cannot be considered to be in fuel poverty, no matter their financial situation. There is an obvious flaw here. </p>
<p>Around 40% of homes in England have an EPC rating of A–C. According to the Lilee definition, none of these homes can or ever will be classed as fuel poor. Even though energy prices are going through the roof, a single-parent household with dependent children whose only income is universal credit (or some other form of benefits) will still not be considered to be living in fuel poverty if their home is rated A-C. </p>
<p>The lack of protection afforded to these households against an extremely volatile energy market is highly concerning. </p>
<p>In our study, we estimate that 4.4% of London’s homes are rated A-C and also financially vulnerable. That is around 171,091 households, which are currently omitted by the Lilee metric but remain highly likely to be unable to afford adequate energy. </p>
<p>In most other European nations, what is known as the 10% indicator is used to gauge fuel poverty. This metric, which was also used in England from the 1990s until the mid 2010s, considers a home to be fuel poor if more than 10% of income is spent on energy. Here, the main focus of the fuel poverty assessment is the occupant’s financial situation, not the property. </p>
<p>Were such alternative fuel poverty metrics to be employed, a significant portion of those 171,091 households in London would almost certainly qualify as fuel poor. </p>
<p>This is confirmed by the findings of our survey. Our data shows that 28.2% of the 2,886 people who responded were <a href="https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/energy_insecurity.php">“energy insecure”</a>. This includes being unable to afford energy, making involuntary spending trade-offs between food and energy, and falling behind on energy payments. </p>
<p>Worryingly, we found that the rate of energy insecurity in the survey sample is around 2.5 times higher than the official rate of fuel poverty in London (11.5%), as assessed according to the Lilee metric. </p>
<p>It is likely that this figure can be extrapolated for the rest of England. If anything, energy insecurity may be even higher in other regions, given that Londoners tend to have higher-than-average <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/regionalaccounts/grossdisposablehouseholdincome/bulletins/regionalgrossdisposablehouseholdincomegdhi/1997to2021">household income</a>. </p>
<p>The UK government is wrongly omitting hundreds of thousands of English households from fuel poverty statistics. Without a more accurate measure, vulnerable households will continue to be overlooked and <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-single-person-on-universal-credit-now-receives-20-less-than-what-it-costs-just-to-eat-and-keep-warm-222008">not get the assistance</a> they desperately need to stay warm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224901/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Torran Semple receives funding from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) grant EP/S023305/1.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Harvey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The top 40% most energy efficient homes aren’t counted as being in fuel poverty, no matter what their bills or income are.Torran Semple, PhD Student in Engineering & Data Science, University of NottinghamJohn Harvey, Associate Professor in Marketing, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254252024-03-14T20:32:41Z2024-03-14T20:32:41ZHousing policies need to fully consider market dynamics to move beyond ‘tall and sprawl’ cities<p>The federal <a href="https://housingandclimate.ca/">Task Force for Housing and Climate</a> recently released its final recommendations for solving Canada’s housing crisis. The <a href="https://housingandclimate.ca/blueprint/">Blueprint for More and Better Housing</a> contains suggestions for adding new affordable and climate-friendly homes by 2030.</p>
<p>The task force was launched in September 2023 to help federal, provincial and municipal governments address housing affordability and the climate crises in Canada. The report is aimed at building 3.8 million new homes, in line with estimates of housing need from the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-housing-report-1.6965250">Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation</a>.</p>
<p>However, the task force’s report recommendations fall short by failing to fully consider land and housing market dynamics. </p>
<p>Its recommendations could incentivize the building of overly-dense urban cores, perpetuating something called “tall and sprawl,” a term that refers to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/land12020434">development patterns in cities that have very high, dense urban cores</a> surrounded by large areas of lowrise housing.</p>
<h2>Protecting greenfield areas</h2>
<p>The report’s premise is on target in many ways. Considering <a href="https://climateatlas.ca/canadian-cities-and-climate-change">more than 80 per cent of Canadians live in cities</a> and most <a href="https://www.datalabto.ca/a-visual-guide-to-detached-houses-in-5-canadian-cities/">urban land is residential</a>, any effective urban climate solutions must consider housing.</p>
<p>The report argues that increasing urban density can help protect greenfield areas from being converted to housing. However, it doesn’t take into account that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2237">too-high urban densities — densely paved and without sufficient green space — can exacerbate climate impacts</a>. </p>
<p>This can intensify <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/extreme-heat-report-university-waterloo-deaths-1.6426392">urban heat island effects</a>, a phenomenon where an urban area is warmer than surrounding areas, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588">leaving households more vulnerable</a> during <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c00024">combined extreme heat and power outage events</a>.</p>
<p>The report recommends governments implement province-wide zoning rules to better manage urban development. But it also suggests eliminating zoning regulations that ensure new buildings leave space for <a href="https://theconversation.com/residential-green-spaces-protect-growing-cities-against-climate-change-183513">the green infrastructure that is essential to address climate challenges in our cities</a>, like trees that provide urban cooling and absorb stormwater. </p>
<p>These actions contradict the report’s excellent suggestion that municipalities should plan for 40 per cent tree canopy cover, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817561116">research shows can help control daytime urban heat island impacts</a>.</p>
<p>Trees need places to grow and thrive, which is typically ensured by regulations like minimum setbacks, landscaping requirements and maximum building footprints. Without these measures, land and housing markets will likely overlook the importance of providing these public good aspects, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2006.12.004">leaving buildings too close together</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2003.09.007">encouraging sprawling development</a>.</p>
<p>Housing research tells us how households respond to too-dense, nature-deficient environments. We know that many households seek <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/missing-middle-housing#desc">“missing middle” housing</a>, which refers to medium-density, family-sized housing such as townhomes, duplexes and triplexes, and lowrise to midrise apartment buildings. </p>
<p>Without <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23998083231180610">this type of housing being built in the green and amenity-rich environments</a> they demand, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102940">households will move further afield</a>, increasing pressures for greenfield conversion.</p>
<h2>De-incentivizing unaffordable housing</h2>
<p>The report encourages municipalities to <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-public-lands-can-help-unlock-the-housing-crisis-and-our-governments/">build affordable housing on their own land</a>, facilitated by financing, to help them acquire new land. </p>
<p>This is <a href="https://theconversation.com/publicly-owned-land-should-be-used-for-affordable-housing-not-sold-to-private-developers-198654">a strategy that has wide support</a>, but it could backfire by adding fuel to already-inflated land values because it fails to acknowledge <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2023.104676">how those inflated land values are created</a>.</p>
<p>Housing markets are more than builders who supply homes and residents who demand them. Markets for land, where housing is built and what homes are built are shaped by <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/land12020434">investors who supply finance</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100446">developers who demand finance</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-is-both-a-human-right-and-a-profitable-asset-and-thats-the-problem-172846">Housing is both a human right and a profitable asset, and that's the problem</a>
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</em>
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<p>For the report’s strategy to succeed, additional policies must rein in investors and developers by de-incentivizing their participation and reducing their impact on land value.</p>
<p>The federal government can address this by <a href="https://mikemorricemp.ca/motion-71-one-solution-to-the-housing-crisis/">eliminating tax incentives for real estate investment trusts</a>. Provincial governments can implement requirements for a percentage of affordable homes <a href="https://housingrightscanada.com/resources/inclusionary-zoning-considerations-for-an-affordable-housing-policy/">(known as inclusionary zoning</a>) across municipalities — not just around transit stations — to prevent developers from leap-frogging regulation by building elsewhere. </p>
<p>Inclusionary zoning decreases <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-value-capture-and-what-does-it-mean-for-cities-58776">land value uplift </a>by reducing market developers’ profits, which creates an entry window for lower-cost and non-profit developers, as envisioned by the report.</p>
<p>The report’s recommendations to eliminate height and density restrictions near transit will further inflate land values. While building more units on a given piece of land might appear to lower housing costs, this is not the case.</p>
<p>At present, <a href="https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/canadian-cost-guide/">highrise development costs are roughly 2.5 times that of lowrise</a> and demand high finance costs to compensate for their high risk. Land values reflect these high costs and profits, especially in areas where highrise builds are expected to be allowed.</p>
<h2>Rethinking urban spaces</h2>
<p>How can these conflicts be resolved? One approach is to establish both minimum and maximum residential zoning heights and densities, aligned with the typologies the report supports. </p>
<p>This would include building 10-unit apartments that follow pre-approved designs in residential neighbourhoods, zoning that encourages <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/growing-up-toronto-planner-jennifer-keesmaat-pushes-for-lots-of-mid-rise/article_bd1cb649-3dea-5506-b672-e9ebd01b5bb6.html">desirable midrise developments</a> along main streets and creating 16-storey maximum zones to encourage the building of single-stairwell 16-storey buildings recommended in the report.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/15/21058051/climate-change-building-materials-mass-timber-cross-laminated-clt">mass timber buildings</a> and other climate-friendlier highrise forms develop, zoning regulations should adapt to enable these typologies to facilitate and reward affordable, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/18/world/asia/singapore-heat.html">climate-friendly builds</a>. There can still be a place for highrise buildings in well-designed cities, particularly if <a href="https://smartdensity.com/scaling-down-creating-walkable-and-enjoyable-transit-oriented-communities/">we reimagine how higrise and lowrise buildings can be combined</a> to create <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2046(02)00230-X">green and liveable cities</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225425/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dawn Parker receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and Mitacs Canada</span></em></p>A new report on sustainable and affordable housing falls short by failing to fully consider land-and-housing market dynamics.Dawn Parker, Professor in the School of Planning, Faculty of Environment, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245742024-03-14T17:19:18Z2024-03-14T17:19:18ZBuying your first home? Here’s how to increase your chances of getting a mortgage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580959/original/file-20240311-16-tn9hxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=56%2C56%2C3342%2C2414&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mortgage-concept-by-money-house-coins-278179301">Denphumi/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Applying for a mortgage for the first time can be a daunting task. But there are several ways you can increase your chances of having your application accepted.</p>
<p>The outcome of a mortgage application largely depends on your deposit size, ability to repay and credit score. These are the factors that make you more or less risky in the eyes of the lender.</p>
<p>As a first step, it is important that you improve your understanding of <a href="https://www.money.co.uk/mortgages/a-complete-guide-to-mortgages">what a mortgage is</a> and how the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-to-reduce-your-mortgage-repayments-in-2023-and-why-rates-have-risen-so-high-196327">repayments work</a>. </p>
<p>But make sure you are also familiar with a <a href="https://www.moneyhelper.org.uk/en/homes/buying-a-home/mortgage-affordability-calculator">mortgage calculator</a> to see what you can afford. Mortgage calculators are tools that give you an estimate of how much you could borrow from a lender or what your monthly repayments and other costs might be.</p>
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<img alt="Quarter life, a series by The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/quarter-life-117947?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">This article is part of Quarter Life</a></strong>, a series about issues affecting those of us in our 20s and 30s. From the challenges of beginning a career and taking care of our mental health, to the excitement of starting a family, adopting a pet or just making friends as an adult. The articles in this series explore the questions and bring answers as we navigate this turbulent period of life.</em></p>
<p><em>You may be interested in:</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-get-your-financial-advice-on-social-media-watch-out-for-misinformation-222196">If you get your financial advice on social media, watch out for misinformation
</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/future-graduates-will-pay-more-in-student-loan-repayments-and-the-poorest-will-be-worst-affected-222840">Future graduates will pay more in student loan repayments – and the poorest will be worst affected</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/four-environmental-red-flags-to-watch-out-for-when-buying-your-new-home-215763">Four environmental red flags to watch out for when buying your new home</a></em></p>
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<h2>Try not to stretch your budget to the limit</h2>
<p>Typically, you are allowed to borrow four-and-a-half times your annual income from a mortgage lender. So, for a 30-year old earning an annual salary of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/uk/advisor/business/average-uk-salary-by-age/">£32,000</a>, the top limit will be £144,000. Two people with the same salary would be able to borrow £288,000 for a house they are buying together.</p>
<p>Next, decide whether you want to stretch your budget to its limit. The higher the value of the home you are buying, the bigger the mortgage repayment you will have to make. Not stretching your budget may help increase your chances of getting a mortgage.</p>
<p>This is because lenders consider your other outgoings, such as utility bills, council tax, childcare or other debt payments, when evaluating your application. Having an income buffer makes your mortgage application less risky for the lender as you will have more ability to repay.</p>
<p>Allowing yourself a buffer will also offer you at least some insurance against a future blip to your income, and help manage the UK’s current <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/cost-living-crisis">cost of living crisis</a>. Household incomes are not keeping up with living costs and are not expected to return to 2021 levels until 2027.</p>
<h2>Improve your credit score</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/credit-cards/what-is-a-good-credit-score/">credit score</a> shows mortgage lenders that you have managed money well and responsibly in the past. A higher credit score makes you a less risky investment for them. Various <a href="https://www.experian.co.uk/experian-account/01_free_score.html?awc=7716_1709563137_ace0ba76c949f233521c2af44416b28e">credit reference agencies</a> allow you to check your credit score for free.</p>
<p>You can protect your credit score in a number of ways. Holding one bank account for a long time is helpful but your borrowing history also matters. </p>
<p>Being close to your credit limit may lower your score. However, not having any debt at all in the past may also make it difficult for mortgage lenders to judge whether you are a responsible borrower. So a good balance is needed.</p>
<p>Missing regular payments for bills or debt will certainly dent your credit score. And be aware that if you have joint bank accounts with others, their poor credit score may also impact yours.</p>
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<img alt="An approved mortgage loan application with a house-shaped keyring." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580961/original/file-20240311-20-mal1md.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580961/original/file-20240311-20-mal1md.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580961/original/file-20240311-20-mal1md.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580961/original/file-20240311-20-mal1md.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580961/original/file-20240311-20-mal1md.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580961/original/file-20240311-20-mal1md.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580961/original/file-20240311-20-mal1md.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">There are several ways you can increase your chances of having your application accepted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/approved-mortgage-loan-agreement-application-house-355901639">Fabio Balbi/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Save a larger deposit</h2>
<p>The risk for lenders is lower when borrowers have a large deposit in comparison to the value of the home they are buying. Lenders also charge lower interest rates on mortgage repayments when you have more of a deposit.</p>
<p>A 10% deposit is often the norm, and the rest can be borrowed from the lender. However, there are also opportunities to buy a home with <a href="https://www.ownyourhome.gov.uk/scheme/mortgage-guarantee-scheme/">only a 5% deposit</a> for first-time-buyers. </p>
<p>This type of mortgage may increase your chances of buying a home if you cannot save for a larger deposit. But be aware that lenders charge <a href="https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/mortgages/new-mortgage-scheme-for-5-deposit/">higher interest rates</a> for low-deposit mortgages as the risk is higher for them.</p>
<p>So-called <a href="https://www.skipton.co.uk/mortgages/track-record-mortgage">rental track record</a> mortgages even allow you to buy with no deposit. If you are renting at the moment and are planning to apply for a rental track record mortgage, then make sure you pay your rent on time for at least 12 months beforehand to be eligible.</p>
<p>However, it is important to be aware that smaller deposits mean a greater risk of you ending up with negative equity if house prices drop. <a href="https://www.moneyhelper.org.uk/en/homes/buying-a-home/negative-equity-what-it-means-and-what-you-can-do-about-it">Negative equity</a> is a situation where the value of your home ends up lower than the remaining value of your mortgage.</p>
<h2>Borrow for longer</h2>
<p>Currently, 55% of first-time buyers have a mortgage term of <a href="https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/system/files/2023-03/Household%20Finance%20Review%202022%20Q4.pdf">longer than 30 years</a>. Mortgages that last as long as <a href="https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2019/06/26/most-mortgages-now-have-40-year-terms/?utm_campaign=FTAdviser+news&utm_source=emailCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=">40 years</a> are also on the rise.</p>
<p>The longer the mortgage term, the lower your monthly repayments are likely to be as they are stretched over a longer period. This increases your ability to afford the monthly payments so again reduces the risk for lenders.</p>
<p>However, longer mortgages mean paying interest charges for a longer period, so they cost much more over time. For a £288,000 mortgage with a 5% interest rate, for example, you would make a staggering £161,653 in additional interest payments if you borrow for 40 years instead of 25. Check other scenarios <a href="https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/mortgages/mortgage-rate-calculator/">here</a>.</p>
<p>With many mortgage products you can make an over payment of 10% per year. Thus, another option would be to keep your monthly payments low and make bulk payments whenever you have extra savings. This will help you to reduce the duration of the mortgage.</p>
<p>This may not be ideal for everyone. However, buying jointly with family and friends could help strengthen your repayment capacity and credit scores. You should, of course, seek independent legal advice over the risks involved before doing so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alper Kara does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Simple tips to improve your chances of having your mortgage application accepted.Alper Kara, Professor of Banking and Finance, Brunel University LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254592024-03-12T17:48:58Z2024-03-12T17:48:58Z‘Applying for a home felt harder than applying for a job’: NZ private rentals won’t solve need for emergency housing<p>The number of people living in emergency housing in Aotearoa New Zealand has grown exponentially over the last eight years – but plans to rely on the private rental sector ignore fundamental realities of renting.</p>
<p>Established in 2016, the <a href="https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/housing/nowhere-to-stay/emergency-housing/index.html">emergency housing programme</a> – short-term housing for people with nowhere to stay – was meant to be a stop-gap measure. There are now 3,000 active tenancies as a lack of affordability and shortages in housing place pressure on low-income renters. </p>
<p>The coalition <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/511049/govt-hopes-for-landlords-help-in-ending-emergency-housing">government recently announced a “shake-up” of the sector</a>. People seeking access to emergency housing will need to prove they have made “a reasonable effort” to secure a home in the private rental sector. The government will also be cutting back on the length of emergency housing grants. </p>
<p><a href="https://wero.ac.nz/">Our research</a> on the factors that shape people’s housing outcomes, experiences and journeys shows the private rental sector can often exacerbate housing precarity. </p>
<p>The government’s proposals don’t take into account the realities of households or the way the private rental sector itself is a key contributor to housing inequalities. Private renting cannot be viewed as an easy solution for the emergency and wider housing crisis.</p>
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<h2>Housing discrimination is widespread</h2>
<p>Our survey of 800 residents across seven neighbourhoods in Auckland, Hamilton and Christchurch revealed experiences of housing discrimination are widespread in Aotearoa New Zealand. </p>
<p>A staggering 70% of renters in our survey felt people were treated unfairly when trying to rent or buy a home in Aotearoa New Zealand. Nearly half of all renters reported directly experiencing discrimination when trying to rent a home. </p>
<p>The study also showed discrimination is intersectional. Socio-economic status, family status as well as race/ethnicity combined to create clear disadvantages for people trying to secure a home. Notably, Māori and Pasifika respondents were more likely overall to report experiences of discrimination.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-nz-struggles-to-resolve-its-long-running-housing-crisis-investors-should-be-taxed-for-keeping-homes-empty-212356">As NZ struggles to resolve its long-running housing crisis, investors should be taxed for keeping homes empty</a>
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<p>When asked for examples to illustrate their experiences of discrimination, renters and owners alike provided stories of struggling to secure private rental housing at some point in their lives. These included being judged, dismissed and ignored by landlords or property managers as well as a sense of “not having a chance” in a housing market in which “applying for a home felt harder than applying for a job”. </p>
<p>Being a low-income household, a Work and Income New Zealand client, a family with a larger number of children or a sole parent and being Māori or Pasifika, often contributed to the experience of being excluded from much of the private rental sector.</p>
<h2>The instability of renting</h2>
<p>This situation is made worse by the instability of rental housing.</p>
<p>Renters are frequent movers. Our survey results show a mere 12% of private rental tenants have lived in only one home over the past ten years. This stands in stark contrast to 47% of owner-occupiers but also 39% of public housing tenants. Conversely, 40% of all renters have lived in four or more homes over the past ten years.</p>
<p>This high mobility is closely entwined with insecure tenancies. Having a tenancy ended by the landlord was one of the most common reasons survey respondents provided for moving house. </p>
<p>As such, renters’ housing journeys are severely constrained by the imbalance between them and private landlords. Not only may renters find themselves on the move when they did not wish to, but they are forced into securing a new rental under pressure and at their own cost.</p>
<p>It takes time and effort to secure a home, especially one that is affordable and suitable for a household’s needs. </p>
<p>Our survey shows 27% of renters took four months or more to find their current home – longer than the most common notice period of 90 days, which the government is planning to <a href="https://www.renews.co.nz/what-the-coalition-deal-means-for-renters/">reduce to 42 days in some circumstances</a>. Close to a quarter of renters viewed 11 homes or more and 25% applied for more than ten rental properties.</p>
<p>These periods of time and number of applications suggest that even renters who are not on the cusp of dire housing need take months to find a rental home.</p>
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<h2>Private rental sector is not a solution</h2>
<p>Our survey adds to international research that demonstrates the impact of housing precarity. </p>
<p>Recent research in <a href="https://www.motu.nz/assets/Uploads/Micro-geography-and-public-tenant-wellbeing.pdf">Aotearoa</a> and <a href="https://jech.bmj.com/content/78/1/40">the United Kingdom</a> has shown private renting adversely affects renters’ health and wellbeing. </p>
<p>These effects were primarily attributed to the stress caused by insecure tenancies. Moreover, a Western Australian initiative to require public housing applicants to prove they had tried to get a private rental was dismantled <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/363">following a 2004 inquiry</a>. </p>
<p>The inquiry revealed evidence of discrimination against Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander applicants. It concluded “it was humiliating for [Aboriginal people] to face often blatant discrimination from agents or owners”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-nz-landlords-gain-from-the-repeal-of-interest-deductibility-rules-but-it-was-a-flawed-law-from-the-outset-218818">Yes, NZ landlords gain from the repeal of interest deductibility rules – but it was a flawed law from the outset</a>
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<p>In all likelihood, these issues will also be disproportionately felt by Māori who are <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/te-pa-harakeke-maori-housing-and-wellbeing-2021">more likely to be renters and experience severe housing deprivation</a>. </p>
<p>The emergency housing crisis can only be responded to through immediate secure housing support for those in need and a medium and long-term focus on building safe, secure and stable housing for all New Zealanders. </p>
<p>Responding to the emergency housing crisis with greater reliance on the private rental sector amounts to fighting fire with fire. It seeks stability where none exists. </p>
<p>The government’s proposal that people seeking emergency housing demonstrate “reasonable effort” to find private housing risks exposing people to more housing deprivation, stress and discrimination that will, in all likelihood, lead some to homelessness.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Terruhn receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment for the WERO research programme. She is affiliated with Renters United. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francis L Collins receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He has previously received other funding from Te Apārangi Royal Society of New Zealand.</span></em></p>Renters face all types of housing discrimination, new research has found. This needs to be taken into consideration when it comes to relying on the private sector to help with emergency housing.Jessica Terruhn, Senior Research Fellow, University of WaikatoFrancis L Collins, Professor of Sociology, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246802024-03-11T13:10:44Z2024-03-11T13:10:44ZHow alternative communities have evolved – from pacifist communes to a solution to the ageing population<p>People have sought solace and strength in communal living for thousands of years. But unlike traditional villages bound by kinship or geography, “intentional communities” are deliberately constructed by people who choose to share not just space, but also a specific set of values, beliefs or goals. Such forging of a collective path is often in response to times of social change. </p>
<p>Here are three instances where people have turned to intentional communities to seek sanctuary, purpose and alternative ways of living. </p>
<h2>Second world war</h2>
<p>As the war raged across Europe, one particular group of people was looking for alternative solutions. Conscientious objectors were people who refused to fight for moral or religious reasons. </p>
<p>It is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/tcbh/hwy002">estimated</a> that there were around 60,000 male conscientious objectors in Britain. Some took up non-combatant roles, such as medics, but others sought out less conventional opportunities. With farming identified as an exempt occupation, some conscientious objectors joined pacifist “back to the land” communities. </p>
<p>One such community was <a href="https://www.littletoller.co.uk/shop/books/little-toller/no-matter-how-many-skies-have-fallen-by-ken-worpole/">Frating Hall Farm</a> in Essex. It provided a safe haven for those who did not wish to fight in the war. As well as farming, the community lived, ate and worked together. </p>
<p>Another such community was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2017/dec/05/conscientious-objectors-lincolnshire-collow-abbey-farm-play-remembrance">Collow Abbey Farm</a> in Lincolnshire. This was a farming cooperative set up by a different set of conscientious objectors. Again, the principles of pacifism, farming and community brought individuals and families together in a time of need. </p>
<p>Many of these communities dissipated after the war ended, having served their purpose as safe havens for pacifists. </p>
<h2>1960s</h2>
<p>Still in the shadow of the second world war, the 1960s blossomed into a more permissive era which allowed for a freer sense of self and expression. This decade heralded a sense of social change with movements such as civil rights and women’s rights emerging. As the decade progressed, so did the different types of intentional communities. </p>
<p>The 1960s commune movement has been described by some experts as a <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203615171-18/sixties-era-communes-timothy-miller">hotbed</a> of free love, drug taking and loose morals. But others <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/mono/10.4324/9780203790656-7/collective-profile-communes-intentional-communities-yaacov-oved">argue</a> they embodied something much more important and were representative of the social changes under way at the time. </p>
<p>In an attempt to escape “straight” society, many young people sought out spaces that allowed them to experiment with alternative forms of living and identity. These were communities that often embraced the non-nuclear family alongside other “counter cultural” ideas such as veganism and non-gendered childrearing. </p>
<p>One well documented example of this is <a href="https://www.braziers.org.uk/buildings-and-land/main-house/">Braziers Park</a> in Oxfordshire. It was a community that formed in the 1950s but flourished in the 1960s and 70s. Braziers was initially set up as an educational community. </p>
<p>Its alternative nature attracted the likes of Rolling Stones frontman, Mick Jagger, and his then girlfriend <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Faithfull/wLGpJ_8I6WYC?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover">Marianne Faithfull</a>, who had lived there during her early life.
She described it as “otherworldly” in her memoir. Braziers still exists today and now offers courses, workshops and retreats.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/four-reasons-to-consider-co-housing-and-housing-cooperatives-for-alternative-living-99097">Four reasons to consider co-housing and housing cooperatives for alternative living</a>
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<p>Another example was <a href="https://player.bfi.org.uk/free/film/watch-a-beautiful-way-to-live-1971-online">Crow Hall</a> in Norfolk, which was founded in 1965. Although they denied they were a commune, it had all of the marks of being one, with elements such as shared accommodation and collective child rearing. The community operated an open door policy, inviting others to “come find themselves”. It eventually dispersed in 1997. </p>
<p>Like Braziers, some communities set up during the 1960s are still in place today such as <a href="https://www.postliphall.org.uk/">Postlip Hall</a> near Cheltenham, or the <a href="http://www.ashram.org.uk/">Ashram Community</a> near Sheffield. But many others ended as society moved on. Experts who have <a href="https://westminsterresearch.westminster.ac.uk/item/911v7/nineteen-sixties-radicalism-and-its-critics-radical-utopians-liberal-realists-and-postmodern-sceptics">reflected</a> on this period describe it as both a time of freedom and, for others, mistakenly liberal.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">New Ground Cohousing in High Barnet, north London.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Today</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://diggersanddreamers.org.uk/#">communities scene</a> continues to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/17/is-the-boom-in-communal-living-really-the-good-life">flourish</a> but this time under new challenges such as an ageing population and climate change. It’s difficult to estimate how many such communities exist in the UK, as nobody keeps official figures. </p>
<p>Arguably, some of the same generation who were “tuning in and dropping out” in the 1960s are now seeking equally alternative solutions for their older age. For some, this is to be found in the phenomenon of <a href="https://cohousing.org.uk/news/how-the-rise-of-cohousing-is-enriching-seniors-lives/">“senior cohousing”</a>. These are intentional communities run by their residents where each household is a self-contained home alongside shared community space and facilities. </p>
<p>One example of senior cohousing is <a href="https://newgroundcohousing.uk">New Ground</a> in north London. This is a community of older women, founded in 1998, who took their housing situation into their own hands. Defying some of the more traditional models of housing for older people, such as sheltered accommodation, New Ground is an intentional community for women over 50. They live by the ethos of “looking out for, rather than looking after each other”.</p>
<p>For others, the solution involves joining an intergenerational community such as <a href="https://www.oldhall.org.uk/old-hall-community/">Old Hall</a> in Suffolk where octogenarians live alongside children and adults under one roof. This is a community of around 50 people who farm the land, share their meals and manage the manor house in which they live.</p>
<p>As society evolves, so too do the forms that intentional communities take.
While the specific challenges may change, the human desire for connection and a sense of belonging remains constant.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsten Stevens-Wood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From conscientious objectors to hippies and seniors, intentional communities offer refuge and purpose for people seeking a different way of life.Kirsten Stevens-Wood, Senior Lecturer, Cardiff Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2254662024-03-11T11:34:19Z2024-03-11T11:34:19ZAlbanese and NT governments to spend $4 billion over a decade to tackle Indigenous housing<p>A $4 billion ten-year agreement between the federal and Northern Territory governments that aims to see up to 270 houses built annually in remote Indigenous communities will be unveiled by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Tuesday. </p>
<p>The federal government is contributing $2.1 billion, of which about $844 million is new money. </p>
<p>While most of the funding is for new houses, the Commonwealth is committing $120 million over three years to match the NT government’s annual investment for housing and infrastructure upgrades in homelands. </p>
<p>Albanese will make the announcement when he visits the community of Binjari near Katherine. The federal cabinet is meeting in Darwin on Wednesday.</p>
<p>A partnership agreement will be set up, to support the delivery of the housing, between the two governments and Aboriginal Housing NT, the NT’s peak First Nations housing body, and Aboriginal Land Councils. </p>
<p>Albanese said in a statement released ahead of the announcement the “landmark agreement” would help close the gap between Indigenous and other Australians. </p>
<p>“The Northern Territory has the highest level of over-crowding in the country which we are working to halve by building 270 houses each year,” the Prime Minister said.</p>
<p>Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney described the agreement as “an historic investment”. “Increasing housing supply will ease overcrowding which we know is a major barrier to closing he gap,” she said.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-commissioner-will-focus-on-vexed-issue-of-indigenous-children-in-out-of-home-care-223444">New commissioner will focus on vexed issue of Indigenous children in out-of-home care</a>
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<p>Northern Territory Chief Minister Eva Lawler said the agreement would “achieve unprecedented housing outcomes across the Territory. The commitment to build 2700 homes in ten years means new homes for more than 10,000 people.</p>
<p>"This is a game changer for the Territory, as this investment goes straight into the hands of our remote communities and Territory businesses.”</p>
<p>The closing the gap national target on housing is to increase the proportion of Indigenous people living in appropriately sized, not overcrowded, housing to 88% by 2031. There has been improvement but it is not on track. </p>
<p>Since the failure of the Voice referendum the Albanese government is looking to roll out practical measures on closing the gap. The housing announcement follows a $700 million Remote Jobs program aimed at creating 3000 jobs over three years. </p>
<p>The NT government faces an election this year. It has been plagued with problems, including the high rate of crime in the territory and internal scandals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225466/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The federal government is contributing $2.1 billion to a ten-year agreement between the federal government and the Northern Territory that aims to see up to 270 houses built annually in remote Indigenous communitiesMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246662024-02-28T11:23:56Z2024-02-28T11:23:56ZNet zero to the housing crisis: how we’re using expert evidence to help policymakers improve UK society<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578593/original/file-20240228-28-4mivz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-above-drab-rooftops-run-2352209899">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Three years ago, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversation-partners-on-2m-research-policy-project-to-mitigate-covid-19-pandemics-social-impacts-150476">The Conversation partnered</a> with a group of leading universities, including UCL, Cardiff and Queen’s Belfast, on the ESRC-funded <a href="https://theippo.co.uk/">International Public Policy Observatory (IPP0)</a>. The project’s goal was initially to assess and report to UK policymakers evidence from around the world on the best ways to mitigate the devastating social impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>IPPO has since evolved and expanded – and from January 2023 has been tailoring its work to focus on a wide range of key UK social challenges, from net zero to inequality.</p>
<p>For example, the UK is committed to reaching net zero by 2050. But the country’s uptake of green technologies, such as heat pump installation, currently lags far behind that of many other European nations such as Norway, Finland, France and Italy.</p>
<p>Consequently, UK policymakers must urgently find new ways to get so-called “able to pay” households to spend their money on green technologies such as better insulation and heat pumps.</p>
<p>IPPO’s <a href="https://theippo.co.uk/home-energy-behaviour-change-barriers-green-purchases-evidence-review/">recent review of the published evidence</a> suggests policy interventions that support the behavioural and emotional reasons for making these choices could increase the likelihood of consumers moving towards green purchases.</p>
<p>New policy ideas could include the establishment of <a href="https://theippo.co.uk/the-case-for-home-upgrade-agencies-mobilising-data-for-net-zero/">Home Upgrade Agencies</a> across the UK to coordinate consistent messaging and offer bespoke advice to householders. <a href="https://theippo.co.uk/society-wide-conversations-recommendations/">Storytelling</a> around net zero should also be made more relevant to people’s everyday lives: binning the jargon; being honest but hopeful; appealing to people’s emotions and everyday realities rather than just reporting the broad, technocratic detail, and acknowledging the current impact of falling living standards on many communities. </p>
<h2>Finding our place</h2>
<p>Post-pandemic, remote and hybrid working have become the new normal – leading to substantial social change. Indeed, the UK is facing unprecedented challenges as people decide where to work and live.</p>
<p>While, overall, <a href="https://theippo.co.uk/hybrid-work-and-disabled-people-post-pandemic-policy-problems/">remote and hybrid working</a> can benefit people’s subjective experience of work, we need solid research to truly learn from the dramatic social changes wrought by the pandemic.</p>
<p>We must also ensure that certain groups, such as those with disabilities, have sufficient support to make positive changes to their working lives.</p>
<p>As fewer people head to the office, policymakers must also consider how we use this increasingly vacant space – particularly as the UK is facing a chronic housing shortage. Indeed, the UK government is proposing to widen planning rules to encourage developers and builders to convert empty commercial spaces into housing.</p>
<p>This sounds superficially positive – but can trigger its own, deeper problems. Work by IPPO, for example, <a href="https://theippo.co.uk/why-converting-office-space-into-flats-wont-solve-the-housing-crisis/">shows</a> that converting commercial buildings into housing under these proposed “permitted development rights” tends to result in smaller, lower-quality homes in worse locations than homes given full planning permission. And this directly impacts people’s lives.</p>
<p>Indeed, this change to planning rules is likely to make the existing housing quality crisis even worse, as already cash-strapped local authorities lose oversight of the development process.</p>
<h2>Finding the right evidence</h2>
<p>IPPO is also establishing the most effective ways of gathering evidence and filtering it for the use of policymakers.</p>
<p>In September 2023, the team launched a series of <a href="https://theippo.co.uk/innovations-in-evidence/">public, online events</a> on new methods for mobilising evidence for greatest impact, to guide researchers, policymakers and intermediaries.</p>
<p>Our events have included sessions on digital tools, rapid evidence assessments, systems mapping, the transferability of evidence, using evidence during a crisis, and including lived experience in analyses of how policy can solve socioeconomic problems.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, IPPO also ran its first <a href="https://theippo.co.uk/international-public-policy-observatory-winter-school-northern-ireland/">knowledge exchange winter school</a> to bring together civil servants from Northern Ireland and a selection of expert speakers.</p>
<p>There is much still to do. But by acting as a bridge between research evidence and the policymakers who can use it to better inform their decision making, IPPO aims to benefit the British public and particularly disadvantaged groups.</p>
<p><em>For more information about IPPO, or if any of these topics are relevant to your work, please visit our <a href="https://theippo.co.uk/">website</a> or <a href="mailto:%20s.o'meara@ucl.ac.uk">get in touch</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224666/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
As a partner on the International Public Policy Observatory, The Conversation is making an impact.Sarah O'Meara, IPPO/Communications and Engagement ManagerLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239722024-02-26T18:59:32Z2024-02-26T18:59:32ZFrom a ‘magic mineral’ to the stuff of nightmares: a 6,700-year history of asbestos<p>Asbestos is making national news once again after being found in contaminated mulch used in hundreds of locations, including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/24/sydney-asbestos-crisis-epa-following-up-on-whether-second-mulch-supplier-is-involved">schools and hospitals</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/19/asbestos-mulch-locations-sydney-sites-near-me-nsw-map-full-list-when-where-found-schools-parks-epa-news">across Sydney</a> and regional New South Wales. </p>
<p>With headlines featuring terms such as “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sydney-school-supermarket-tainted-with-asbestos-crisis-widens-2024-02-18/">crisis</a>”, “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6ewhMFXf08">nightmare</a>” and “<a href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/childrens-hospital-at-westmead-among-54-locations-contaminated-with-asbestos/news-story/97aa31383db6f492718d82f099f89d14">deadly</a>”, it’s hard to believe the toxic mineral was once hailed for its supposedly “magical” properties.</p>
<p>In fact, the history of asbestos goes back at least 6,700 years. Its prevalence in our built environment means it’s (unfortunately) here to stay for a long time.</p>
<h2>Before it became a ‘killer dust’</h2>
<p>Asbestos is a naturally occurring mineral found in rock formations across the globe, including in <a href="https://www.australianasbestosnetwork.org.au/asbestos-history/asbestos-wittenoom">some national parks</a> in Australia.</p>
<p>It gets its name from the Greek word for inextinguishable (<em>ásvestos</em>), alluding to its resistance to fire and corrosion. It was these characteristics, along with its insulating properties, that made asbestos seem like a “<a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Mineral-Killer-Turner-Newall-Asbestos/dp/0199243999">magic mineral</a>” in centuries prior.</p>
<p>Researchers have found ancient clay pottery from East Finland, dated to 2500 BC, with asbestos fibres mixed into it – <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291349782_Early_Asbestos_Ware">likely added for</a> extra strength and resilience. Some of the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357560672_Asbestos_Ceramics_from_Archaeological_Sites_of_Southern_Fennoscandia_Karelia_Mineralogical_and_Geochemical_Aspects">earliest asbestos</a> pottery, also found in Finland, has been dated to 4700 BC. Asbestos use has also been recorded at other neolithic sites, including in Central Russia and Norway.</p>
<p>In (Western) literature, the first known reference to what might have been asbestos comes from Theophrastus (circa 372-287 BC), a student of Greek philosopher Aristotle and his successor at the Lyceum. In his book <a href="https://www.xtal.iqfr.csic.es/Cristalografia/archivos_01/THEOPHRASTUS_CALEY.pdf">On Stones</a>, Theophrastus writes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the mines at Scapte Hyle a stone was once found which was like rotten wood in appearance. Whenever oil was poured on it, it burnt, but when the oil had been used up, the stone stopped burning, as if it were itself unaffected.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the 10th century, Christian pilgrims travelling to Jerusalem were <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305440314000399">sold</a> pieces of asbestos as fragments of the True Cross – their divinity supposedly evidenced by their incombustibility. By the medieval ages, trading asbestos-containing items had become common. This fascination continued for millennia.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577818/original/file-20240226-24-3mlrqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577818/original/file-20240226-24-3mlrqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577818/original/file-20240226-24-3mlrqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577818/original/file-20240226-24-3mlrqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577818/original/file-20240226-24-3mlrqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577818/original/file-20240226-24-3mlrqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577818/original/file-20240226-24-3mlrqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577818/original/file-20240226-24-3mlrqk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This earthenware pilgrim flask (circa 1585-1600) has an impresa with burning asbestos and the words ‘ardet aeternum’, meaning ‘burn forever’. It’s painted with a medallion showing a nude male (Bacchus) holding two bunches of grapes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">British Museum</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1725, a young Benjamin Franklin found himself broke and living in London. In need of cash to pay his bills, he sold a <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsnr.1952.0018">purse</a> made of fibrous mineral asbestos that he’d brought from North America. The recipient was <a href="https://www.britishmuseum.org/about-us/british-museum-story/sir-hans-sloane">Hans Sloane</a>, whose collections would later be used to <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/british-museum-was-wonder-its-time-also-product-slavery-180966997/">establish the British Museum</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"691226191462809600"}"></div></p>
<h2>A class I carcinogen</h2>
<p>The carcinogenic effect of asbestos – even at brief, transient and “low” doses (such as bystander exposure) – has been <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1069377/">recognised since</a> at least 1965. Today, it is classified as a class I carcinogen and considered a deadly threat to humans.</p>
<p>Asbestos is the main <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/13782506/">cause of mesothelioma</a>, a cancer of the surface of the lung. It can also cause lung cancer and is implicated in other cancers, including throat and stomach cancers. </p>
<p>In Australia, there are more than <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/about-our-data/our-data-collections/australian-mesothelioma-registry-database-amr">700 cases</a> of mesothelioma each year. We don’t know how many of the roughly 6,000 yearly cases of lung cancer are caused, wholly or partially, by asbestos. </p>
<p>Although asbestos use has been banned in Australia <a href="https://www.asbestossafety.gov.au/countries-asbestos-bans#:%7E:text=Asbestos%20has%20been%20banned%20in,on%20all%20types%20of%20asbestos.">since 2003</a>, people the world over continue to deal with its harmful effects.</p>
<h2>The spread of ‘fibro houses’</h2>
<p>Australia started using asbestos goods from around the 1880s, largely for steam-driven machines that benefited from its insulating properties. Only small local mines operated at the time. </p>
<p>Eventually, the world wars increased demand and active exploration led to larger-scale mining, <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-2-000-people-from-wittenoom-died-of-asbestos-related-diseases-a-powerful-and-compelling-requiem-brings-their-story-to-the-stage-198779">especially at Wittenoom</a> in Western Australia. Even then, local production wasn’t meeting demand.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-2-000-people-from-wittenoom-died-of-asbestos-related-diseases-a-powerful-and-compelling-requiem-brings-their-story-to-the-stage-198779">More than 2,000 people from Wittenoom died of asbestos-related diseases. A powerful and compelling requiem brings their story to the stage</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It was initially miners who presented with the disease, followed by workers in industries manufacturing asbestos-containing products, as well as builders, plumbers and fitters. The Wittenoom miners and their families are still being <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/bjc201223">followed by researchers</a> to determine the effects of exposure.</p>
<p>The economic boom that followed WWII further drove demand for asbestos. In addition to local production, more than <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285994368_Asbestos">50,000 tons of asbestos</a> were imported to Australia each year throughout the 1950s and into the late 1970s.</p>
<p>Asbestos afforded many Australians a home. Timber-framed houses clad in flat asbestos cement sheeting (called “fibro houses”) were favoured by people who built or legally supervised the building of their own home.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.booktopia.com.au/asbestos-in-australia-lenore-layman/book/9781925835618.html?msclkid=3d5f43a20ad011798598267e19af1c3d&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Booktopia%20-%20AU%20-%20Shopping&utm_term=4585169650599087&utm_content=All%20Custom%20Label">the mid-1960s</a>, nearly 20% of Australia’s housing stock was made up of fibro houses – with the highest uptake (more than 50%) in the Northern Territory. It’s impossible to say exactly what percentage of existing buildings contain asbestos.</p>
<p>When cyclone Tracy swept through Darwin in 1974, the <a href="https://www.miragenews.com/ken-s-journey-with-asbestos-disease-ends/">death and disease</a> that resulted from the uncoordinated cleanup served as a warning of the possible dangers of asbestos removal.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/asbestos-still-haunts-those-exposed-as-kids-in-mining-towns-9487">Asbestos still haunts those exposed as kids in mining towns</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Asbestos is here to stay</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292053877_Dail_and_Hammar's_Pulmonary_Pathology">Asbestos-related cancers</a> have a long lag time between exposure and detectable disease. Although this lag is typically about 30 years, it can range anywhere between 10 and 70 years. As such, it can be difficult to trace exposure retrospectively.</p>
<p>Many buildings constructed before the mid-1980s contain asbestos. It’s often inseparably bound to other materials, such as tiles, vinyl and cement. </p>
<p>Regulations demand <a href="https://www.asbestossafety.gov.au/find-out-about-asbestos/asbestos-safety-information/brochures/asbestos-safety-householders-and-home-renovators">specialist removal</a> for asbestos-affected areas of more than 10 square metres. In reality, whether this happens comes down to how effectively it can be detected, and whether the people affected can afford removals. Without specialised assessment and analysis, asbestos can be difficult to recognise.</p>
<p>Since there is no recognised “safe” dose – a dose below which there’s no risk of developing asbestos-related cancer – <a href="https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-09/guidance_material_-_asbestos_registers_guide_-_august_2023.pdf">workplace standards</a> can only minimise risk, not eliminate it.</p>
<p>Only time will tell what the long-term outcomes are from the latest exposure in NSW. The risk from asbestos depends on several factors, including the overall amount inhaled, the type of asbestos and the number of years since exposure.</p>
<p>Among the most heavily exposed Wittenoom miners, about 20% have developed mesothelioma so far.</p>
<h2>Documenting cases</h2>
<p>Since July 2010, the <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/about-our-data/our-data-collections/australian-mesothelioma-registry-database-amr">Australian Mesothelioma Registry</a> has collected information on new mesothelioma cases diagnosed in Australia. The national <a href="https://www.asbestossafety.gov.au/national-asbestos-exposure-register/online">Asbestos Exposure Register</a> also allows any person to register a documented or suspected case of exposure. </p>
<p>If you’re worried about your neighbourhood, the Asbestos and Silica Eradication Agency has produced a national heat map showing the <a href="https://www.asbestossafety.gov.au/what-we-do/news-and-announcements/national-residential-asbestos-heatmap-2023-update">probability of asbestos</a> presence in buildings by geographic area.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223972/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonja Klebe works for SA Pathology and gets called as a paid expert to court. She has received funding from NHMRC, MRFF, AstraZeneca, Roche and Ventana.
</span></em></p>One of the earliest known references to asbestos may come from Theophrastus, a student of Aristotle and his successor at the Lyceum in Athens.Sonja Klebe, Associare Professor, College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230712024-02-20T20:05:23Z2024-02-20T20:05:23ZCanada is a suburban nation because of post-Second World War government policy<p>Canada is a suburban nation, not only because of consumer preferences, but also because of federal government policy in the years following the Second World War.</p>
<p>Most post-war population growth in Canada was in the suburbs, with two-thirds of people living there in 2021, according to <a href="https://doi.org/10.24908/32559">my research team’s analysis of the latest census</a>. </p>
<p>But how did Canada become a suburban nation so quickly in the post-war era? </p>
<p>To answer that question, our team spent five years in national archives exploring many thousands of files, photographs, drawings, maps and plans. </p>
<h2>No jurisdiction</h2>
<p>In the years following the Second World War, the federal government led the country’s transformation from a rural to a suburban nation, despite lacking any constitutional jurisdiction in community planning. </p>
<p>Canada’s post-war policies on urbanism were first outlined in an obscure 1944 government document known as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02665433.2023.2296922">Curtis Report</a>. This report was a critical turning point for major changes in housing and community planning, setting Canada on a different course than the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/veterans-land-act">A million returning veterans</a> created a housing crisis for a country of only 11 million people, perhaps more serious than the housing shortage Canada is currently experiencing. The Curtis Report proposed a bold strategy to build a million small, affordable homes in planned communities. It was bold because Canada only had a handful of community planners and the home-building industry had collapsed in the Depression. </p>
<p>The federal government did have some jurisdiction over banking and finance, and quickly developed new financial tools that allowed many veterans to buy a small home. </p>
<p>Before the war, many houses were self-built, or financed with short-term notes similar to car loans. Thousands of Canadian families lost their homes in the Depression when they could not repay these loans. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/canada-mortgage-and-housing-corporation">In 1946, the federal government established the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)</a> to insure a new form of 25-year, low-interest loan for veterans. The mortgages were soon extended to other families that were financially qualified.</p>
<h2>Relevance today</h2>
<p>Some other tools used from 1944-1959 are relevant in today’s housing crisis.</p>
<p>For example, Canadians had many good designs for small homes to choose from because the federal government’s Wartime Housing Limited organization experimented with minimum-sized homes for workers in suburban war-industry factories. </p>
<p>CMHC completed Wartime Housing Ltd. projects and created new designs for affordable small homes, such as the familiar 1.5-storey “Cape Cod” houses that were built across the country. </p>
<p>CMHC published these house designs as widely distributed pattern books. Families could choose a small home design from the book and, for a nominal sum, order blueprints for estimates from builders.</p>
<p>Many contemporary Canadian homebuilders appear to have forgotten how to build small houses for the entry-level market, opting for so-called “monster homes.” So the federal government’s December 2023 <a href="https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/politics/ottawa-to-launch-pre-approved-home-design-catalogue-bring-back-post-war-effort/article_627ffa49-f473-5f8c-8b14-945ae6bdf3bf.html">proposal to reintroduce small-home pattern books</a> is a welcome one. </p>
<p>The CMHC also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13574809.2023.2255150">influenced suburban community design preferences</a> by developing hundreds of neighbourhoods, several new towns and regulating private builders. CMHC opposed the grid subdivisions from the pre-war period and promoted modernist ideas about neighbourhood units composed of crescents and culs-de-sac centred around elementary schools. </p>
<h2>Automobile-dependent</h2>
<p>It also built neighbourhoods for federal agencies across the country, including an entire “<a href="https://doi.org/10.7202/1098366ar">model town</a>” in Oromocto, N.B., for the Department of Defence. </p>
<p>The federal government used its spending power to influence the design of these new neighbourhoods. To receive infrastructure funding in a <a href="https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2021/sixteen-projects-showcase-clts-land-assembly-solutions">Federal-Provincial Land Assembly</a>, towns had to accept CMHC’s neighbourhood design, often the first non-grid subdivision in their municipality. </p>
<p>Similarly, private developers who wanted CMHC’s valuable mortgage insurance were required to submit their subdivisions to the federal agency for approval and follow their site-planning standards. </p>
<p>As a result, Canada became a suburban nation with lots of sprawl, but it is <em>planned sprawl</em>, following principles demonstrated across Canada by the federal government. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/15385132231222853">new planning powers</a> locked in vast areas of single-family homes with zoning rules that resisted any change. Most of these older Canadian suburbs simply don’t function very well for people who are too young, too old or too poor to own and operate an automobile. </p>
<h2>Outdated idea</h2>
<p>Our research shows that <a href="https://www.canadiansuburbs.ca/interactive-map/">Canadian mass suburbanization</a> was directed by public policy and its infrastructure was heavily subsidized.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the authors of the Curtis Report couldn’t foresee the difficult environmental, social and financial consequences of mass suburbanization in 1944. </p>
<p>While single detached homes and automobiles seemed like desirable options 80 years ago, it proved physically impossible, too expensive and socially inequitable to build a large metropolis using only these tools. </p>
<p>With the benefit of hindsight, the federal government is once again using its spending power in its new <a href="https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sf/project/cmhc/pdfs/content/en/housing-action-plans-guide-for-municipalities.pdf">Housing Action Plan</a> to encourage municipalities to abandon single-family zoning and promote more flexible tools for planning 21st century communities. </p>
<p>It should consider similar conditions for its much larger transportation and utilities infrastructure programs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223071/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David L.A. Gordon received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada through Insight Grant 435-2018-0378. He chairs the Research Committee for the Council for Canadian Urbanism.</span></em></p>Following the Second World War, the federal government led the country’s transformation from a rural to a suburban nation, despite lacking any constitutional jurisdiction in community planning.David L.A. Gordon, Professor, School of Urban and Regional Planning; Department of Geography and Planning, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2215442024-02-14T17:07:42Z2024-02-14T17:07:42ZGeneration Z may not need mortgages, here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575630/original/file-20240214-22-ieqy9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C20%2C3493%2C2239&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/young-happy-lesbian-couple-hugging-laughing-1896484951">Ground Picture/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ask many Millennials – the generation currently in their late 20s to early 40s – about the possibility of home ownership and they will probably laugh in your face. The idea of getting a mortgage with just their own income is often unthinkable, and those who do own property often have an uncommonly early inheritance to thank.</p>
<p>While housing crises rage across Europe, many members of Generation Z – those born after the year 2000 – may soon find that the shoe is on the other foot. By analysing mortgage trends and other data, my research has predicted a gradual shift away from long term mortgage commitments among this generation.</p>
<p>Inheritances will play a key part in this change. Slowing population growth, smaller families, and a concentration of property ownership in the ageing Baby Boomer generation (born between 1946 and 1964) mean that inheritance rates have been climbing year on year. </p>
<p>Generation Z therefore stands to benefit from Europe’s declining birth rate, one of the lowest in the world at <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics">1.53 children per woman</a>. Put simply, there will be fewer young people to inherit houses, and more houses for them to inherit.</p>
<h2>Mortgages: an increasingly unattractive prospect</h2>
<p>Getting a mortgage is daunting at the best of times, as banks require savings, income, stable employment and a hefty deposit. If you meet these criteria, you are then locked into, on average, a 25-year commitment. </p>
<p>In a labour market characterised by <a href="https://feps-europe.eu/publication/605-living-with-uncertainty-the-social-implications-of-precarious-work/">temporary jobs and low, stagnating wages</a>, many people will struggle to ever sign a mortgage, let alone pay one off. The prospect of getting one is especially unappealing at a time when <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/03/24/European-Housing-Markets-at-a-Turning-Point-Risks-Household-and-Bank-Vulnerabilities-and-531349">rising mortgage rates are driving the cost of living up</a> in Europe and beyond. This panorama is already affecting <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/09/29/gen-z-faces-financial-challenges-stress-anxiety-and-an-uncertain-future/">Generation Z’s attitude to long term milestones</a> such as buying a home.</p>
<p>The fact that <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c585cc68-880c-44af-95e4-8be50676b095">fewer mortgages are being signed</a> across the continent is therefore unsurprising, especially given a <a href="https://www.ey.com/en_gl/news/2023/12/decade-low-european-mortgage-growth-forecast-this-year-and-next-as-high-borrowing-costs-and-a-weak-economy-drive-down-demand">steep rise in interest rates</a> and soaring property prices. This decline seems set to continue into the long term, for a number of reasons.</p>
<h2>Home ownership in Europe today</h2>
<p>In the European Union, the average age at which people first acquire property is 34. The average mortgage duration is 25 years, meaning payments are typically completed by the age of 59, just before retirement age (65 in most EU member states).</p>
<p>As of 2022, 69.1% of Europeans owned their home, but only <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2021/html/ecb.ebbox202101_05%7Ea872597edd.en.html">24.7% had mortgages</a>. This does <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/957803/homeowners-with-and-without-an-outstanding-mortgage-in-eu-28-per-country/">vary widely</a> across the continent, and there is little correlation between ownership rates and the number of active mortgages. </p>
<p>In some Northern European countries, the number of mortgages is actually rising. In the Netherlands, for example, <a href="https://www.dnb.nl/en/current-economic-issues/housing-market/hight-mortgage-debts-in-the-netherlands-risks-and-solutions/">61% of homeowners currently have a mortgage</a>.</p>
<p>In contrast, this percentage is far lower in countries like Italy, where only <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/957803/homeowners-with-and-without-an-outstanding-mortgage-in-eu-28-per-country/">14.6%</a> of homeowners have a mortgage. This disparity may be due to the more common use of liquid funds, or stronger, more longstanding traditions of inheriting property in certain countries.</p>
<h2>Spain: a case in point</h2>
<p>We can take Spain as an example of the changes that are already underway. It is above average in life expectancy and rates of home ownership (especially among older generations): the average Spaniard first purchases property at age 41, and receives an inheritance at 51. </p>
<p>The number of inheritances, however, is reaching new highs year on year. From 2021 to 2022 the number of homes inherited in Spain rose by <a href="https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Datos.htm?t=6154">3.7%</a>, with over 17,800 homes inherited per month within its borders. </p>
<p>With only a 10-year gap, on average, between signing a mortgage and receiving an inheritance, the average Spanish person may see little benefit in tying themselves to a variable, potentially volatile 25-year loan.</p>
<h2>Leaving the family home</h2>
<p>The ongoing surge in property inheritance shows no signs of slowing, and is big enough to potentially decrease the long-term demand for mortgages. However, the value of inheritances varies widely across different countries and wealth distributions, and it is difficult to make predictions for all of Europe. </p>
<p>There is also huge variation in factors such as <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20230904-1">the age of leaving the family home</a>. Southern Europe is generally higher in this regard, with adults typically staying with their parents until age 30.3 in Spain, 30.7 in Greece and 30 in Italy. </p>
<p>In Finland, on the other hand, people typically leave home at age 21.4, with similarly low figures across Scandinavia. France sees adults move out at 23.4, and Germany at 23.8. According to Eurostat data, many of these average ages showed long-term increases between 2012 and 2022.</p>
<p>However, higher youth independence does not directly correlate with more mortgage signings. <a href="https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=3200&L=0">Spain’s staggering drop of 62.54%</a> in new mortgages from 2007 to 2023 is reflected in data from across Europe. From 2022 to 2023, <a href="https://www.nbb.be/fr">Belgium recorded a 33.8% decrease</a>, and between 2021 and 2022 <a href="https://www.banque-france.fr/fr/publications-et-statistiques/statistiques/panorama-des-prets-lhabitat-des-menages">France has witnessed an approximate decrease of 47.49%</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/pdf/fr-FR/marche-immobilier-residentiel-zone-euro-epreuve-normalisation-monetaire-17/01/2024,49230">Annual data from the European Central Bank, released in November 2023,</a> also shows annual decreases of 61% in Slovakia, 57% in Austria, 40% in Luxembourg, and 23% in Estonia. Across Europe as a whole, the number of new housing loans dropped by 32% last year. </p>
<h2>Impacts on Generation Z</h2>
<p>Though they will face plenty of other problems, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335555065_Precarious_work_and_labour_regulation_in_the_EU_current_reality_and_perspectives">such as securing stable employment contracts</a>, housing might not be the primary concern for much of Generation Z in the future.</p>
<p>An ageing baby boomer population means that massive amounts of property are already being passed down among the wealthiest households: as far back as 2015, inheritances on average corresponded to <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/e2879a7d-en/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/e2879a7d-en#:%7E:text=Inheritance%20and%20estate%20taxes%20are,taxes%20on%20donors'%20overall%20estates.source">$196,247 per person in the wealthiest 20% of OECD countries</a>. This figure had already increased by 50% in less than a decade. </p>
<p>This will benefit Millennials to a certain extent, but with <a href="https://www.americansurveycenter.org/the-lonely-childhood-of-generation-z/">fewer siblings</a>, many wealthier members of Generation Z might not need to divide inheritances from parents who often own multiple properties. This outlook, coupled with the conditions for accessing a mortgage in an inhospitable job market, will raise a simple question for much of Generation Z: Why take on the risk, long term commitment and extra cost of a mortgage if I don’t have to?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221544/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Ditta no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.</span></em></p>Europe’s ageing population means that Generation Z stands to inherit huge amounts of property in the coming years, resulting in reduced demand for mortgages.Geoffrey Ditta, Geoffrey Ditta Ph.D. Profesor de Economía y Negocios Internacionales. Director del Máster Universitario en Internacionalización de Empresas. Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad NebrijaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223512024-02-12T19:23:13Z2024-02-12T19:23:13ZThe private sector housing experiment has failed: Ottawa must now step up on social housing<p>Politicians of all stripes say that <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-poilievre-housing-election-1.6970389">housing affordability is a top priority</a>. But few are saying much about social housing — the kind that’s needed for low-income households in greatest need of affordable rental housing.</p>
<p>Social housing is non-market housing, either publicly owned or non-profit, and substantially subsidized to ensure low-income renter households pay no more than 30 per cent of their gross income on rent. Canada was committed to this kind of housing after the Great Depression, but <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/modules/prb99-1-homelessness/housing-e.htm">began to step away from it in the early 1990s.</a></p>
<p>With funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), the <a href="https://www.moresocialhousing.ca/">Social Housing and Human Rights coalition</a> is bringing together researchers, advocates and people across Canada experiencing homelessness and housing precarity to raise public awareness about the causes and solutions to the lack of housing for low-income renters. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-housing-crisis-will-not-be-solved-by-building-more-of-the-same-175221">Canada’s housing crisis will not be solved by building more of the same</a>
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<h2>Failed private sector experiment</h2>
<p>I am a researcher and member of the coalition organizing committee. We <a href="https://mra-mb.ca/wp-content/uploads/Social-Housing-and-Human-Rights-Conference-Primer-small.pdf">have synthesized research</a> that tells the story of a 30-plus year experiment, aligned with the rise of neoliberalism, to rely on the private sector to respond to all housing needs. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-exactly-is-neoliberalism-84755">What exactly is neoliberalism?</a>
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<p>It hasn’t worked.</p>
<p>Our examination of housing policy in liberal democracies including Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and throughout Europe leads us to conclude, as does the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), that <a href="https://www.oecd.org/social/social-housing-policy-brief-2020.pdf">“social housing is a key part of past and future housing policy.</a>”</p>
<p>We conclude that if we are to begin to make progress on an increasingly daunting challenge, the government of Canada will need to do two things:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Create a minimum of 50,000 new rent-geared-to-income social housing units each year for 10 years, starting now. These units should be targeted for the lowest income renter households and those experiencing homelessness, and should have rents permanently set at no more than 30 per cent of household income.</p></li>
<li><p>Invest now in the acquisition, construction, operation and maintenance of new and existing public, non-profit and co-operative-owned housing that meets the unique and varied requirements of low-income renters and people experiencing homelessness.</p></li>
</ol>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/housing-co-ops-could-solve-canadas-housing-affordability-crisis-181104">Housing co-ops could solve Canada's housing affordability crisis</a>
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<h2>Just scratching the surface</h2>
<p>We recognize that adding 50,000 additional units annually is not nearly enough. Instead, we recommend this as a minimum, based on the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) projected <a href="https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/accelerate-supply/housing-shortages-canada-updating-how-much-we-need-by-2030">need to expand overall supply by building 5.8 million homes</a> over the next decade. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.moresocialhousing.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/More-Social-Housing-Call-to-Action-backgrounder.pdf">We estimate</a> that because 33.5 per cent of households are renters, 194,300 of this supply should be rental. Since the <a href="https://chec-ccrl.ca/2021-census/">CMHC has found that approximately a quarter of renters are paying more than 30 per cent of income on rent, living in housing in poor repair or living in crowded conditions,</a> we believe a minimum of 48,575 (rounded up to 50,000) of new rental housing should be at rent-geared-to-income rates affordable to low-income renters. </p>
<p>This more than triples the target in the federal government’s <a href="https://www.placetocallhome.ca/">National Housing Strategy</a> and redirects the focus from modest affordability to deeply affordable. This amount is relatively consistent with <a href="https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/perspectives.articles.economy.2023-01-social-housing-scotiabank-report.html">calls to double the number of social housing units to more closely align with the OECD average</a>.</p>
<p>New social housing supply requires capital investments for construction so that new housing can be built, and for acquisition so existing properties can be purchased and repurposed or renovated as needed. </p>
<p>New and existing social housing supply also requires investments in ongoing subsidies to support the costs of operating the housing while charging rent-geared-to-income rents. It will require ongoing capital investments for the purpose of maintaining the quality of housing and preserving the stock. Operating costs may include services and programs that support tenants.</p>
<h2>Calls for change ignored</h2>
<p>Social Housing and Human Rights coalition members are now reaching out to MPs across the country to make the case that more social housing is needed. It’s a challenge. </p>
<p>Despite the evidence, some are quick to tell us they don’t believe social housing is needed and that governments should simply incentivize private sector developers and remove “red tape.”</p>
<p>But our research shows no evidence this will work. </p>
<p>Private-sector solutions were the focus of cost-shared federal/provincial/territorial initiatives beginning in 2001 through the <a href="https://scics.ca/en/product-produit/a-framework-to-guide-housing-initiatives-in-canada-by-the-provincial-and-territorial-pt-ministers-responsible-for-housing/">Affordable Housing Framework Agreement</a>. <a href="https://chec-ccrl.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Background-Primer-on-Canadas-Housing-system-APRIL-20-2021.pdf">But the emphasis on limited capital grants per unit resulted in modest development of units renting at 80 per cent of average market rents</a>, unaffordable to low-income households. Furthermore, agreements requiring rents be set at affordable rates for 15 years have now expired.</p>
<p>The shortage of truly affordable rental housing across Canada has only worsened because governments have not been willing to invest in social housing. Yes, it is expensive — at least in the short term — and it is getting more expensive each year. But as <a href="https://www.munifin.fi/whats-new/finnish-system-for-affordable-social-housing-supports-social-mixing-and-brings-down-homelessness/#:%7E:text=No%20family%20homelessness%20in%20Finland,are%20affordable%20social%20housing%20apartments.">demonstrated by Finland, a country that has remained committed to social housing investment</a>, it pays off in the long term. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A red brick apartment building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/574492/original/file-20240208-20-rd3c9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">An affordable housing complex in Espoo, Finland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<h2>Lessons from Finland</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/how-finland-managed-to-virtually-end-homelessness/article_bde7a0aa-5e51-5700-b272-6347ddf69f04.html">The Finns have tackled homelessness like no other country</a>. They know that without public investment in safe, stable housing, people are at higher risk of having poor mental and physical health, poor education outcomes, weaker labour market attachment and a host of other issues that governments must attend to. </p>
<p>There are many strategies needed simultaneously to address housing affordability. The expansion of social housing supply is one.</p>
<p>But calls are all too often ignored by governments turning to the private sector for low-cost quick fixes that continue to fail those in greatest need.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shauna MacKinnon receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council</span></em></p>There are many strategies needed simultaneously to address housing affordability in Canada. The expansion of social housing supply is a particularly effective one.Shauna MacKinnon, Professor and Chair, Department of Urban and Inner-City Studies, University of WinnipegLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2216762024-02-08T17:54:55Z2024-02-08T17:54:55ZEncampment sweeps in Edmonton are yet another example of settler colonialism<p>It feels like housing is at a tipping point in the city of Edmonton. </p>
<p>There have been four main events highlighting the situation:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.nandalaw.ca/encampments">A case</a> that was brought against the City of Edmonton by the Coalition for Justice and Human Rights about encampment sweeps;</li>
<li><a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/edmonton-police-plan-massive-130-plus-homeless-encampment-sweep-ahead-of-holidays">Encampment sweeps</a> perpetrated by the Edmonton police days before a forecasted deadly cold snap;</li>
<li>A decision by Edmonton City Council to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-council-alberta-cabinet-homeless-housing-1.7085148">declare a housing and homelessness emergency</a>;</li>
<li>The <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10232393/alberta-government-edmonton-homeless-centre/">Alberta government’s announcement</a> that encampments will continue to be cleared out, while also arguing there’s sufficient shelter room. That contention <a href="https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2024/01/11/edmonton-mayor-declaring-housing-emergency/">has been refuted</a> by advocates, shelter workers and the province’s official housing critic. </li>
</ul>
<p>These events should be understood within ongoing settler colonialism and a housing crisis endemic in Canada’s broader housing system.</p>
<h2>Housing in Canada</h2>
<p>The state of housing both in Canada and globally <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-study-reveals-intensified-housing-inequality-in-canada-from-1981-to-2016-173633">is worsening</a>, but the <a href="https://thewalrus.ca/there-is-no-housing-crisis/">housing crisis is not new</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-thirds-of-canadian-and-american-renters-are-in-unaffordable-housing-situations-221954">Two-thirds of Canadian and American renters are in unaffordable housing situations</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.homelesshub.ca/blog/five-things-know-about-pre-1964-canadian-housing-policy">While affordable housing policies in Canada emerged following the Second World War</a>, colonialism is foundational to housing policy, evidenced by the <a href="https://www.homelesshub.ca/about-homelessness/population-specific/indigenous-peoples#:%7E:text=Research%20shows%20that%20Indigenous%20homelessness,%2C%20at%2011%2D96%25.">high rates</a> of housing vulnerability that Indigenous Peoples face. </p>
<p>For example, residential schools, <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/pass-system-in-canada#:%7E:text=Used%20in%20conjunction%20with%20policies,19th%20and%20early%2020th%20centuries.">the pass system</a> and other strategies to force relocation, outlined by history scholar <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/books/clearing-the-plains-by-james-daschuk-1.6863578">James Daschuk</a> in his book <em>Clearing The Plains</em>, have limited housing for Indigenous Peoples. Colonial policies are foundational to the current housing system and people’s housing experiences.</p>
<p>Under Canada’s <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/n-11.2/FullText.html">National Housing Strategy Act</a> passed in 2019, the federal government affirmed the human right to housing. This means governments of all levels have a responsibility to recognize this human right. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/clearing-the-plains-continues-with-the-acquittal-of-gerald-stanley-91628">'Clearing the plains' continues with the acquittal of Gerald Stanley</a>
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<h2>Encampment sweeps violate human rights</h2>
<p>This isn’t happening, apparently, when it comes to encampments, which are both a site of <a href="https://make-the-shift.org/homeless-encampments/">human rights violations and of human rights claims</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://edmonton.citynews.ca/2024/01/16/edmonton-homeless-encampment-lawsuit-dismissed/#:%7E:text=In%20his%20decision%20Tuesday%2C%20Justice,an%20end%20to%20the%20lawsuit.">The Coalition for Justice and Human Rights was denied legal standing by the judge in its case against Edmonton</a> because he ruled it wasn’t the right group to represent the interests of people experiencing homelessness. </p>
<p>While that means this particular case will not proceed, it garnered significant media attention and does not refute the claims by the coalition, only its standing.</p>
<p>The coalition argued human rights were violated during encampment sweeps. It sought to maintain permanent restrictions on encampment evictions, and had been supported by many advocates in Edmonton, including those <a href="https://www.nandalaw.ca/encampments">who submitted affidavits</a>. </p>
<p>While the coalition’s claims are important, appealing to human rights does not necessarily identify the depth of colonialism’s role in the ongoing events. </p>
<p>Encampment evictions also happen in the context of treaty rights and the <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/11/UNDRIP_E_web.pdf">United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples</a>, which are violated when Indigenous people are forcibly removed from land. </p>
<p>In the case of the sweep of one Edmonton encampment, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9616641/edmonton-homeless-camps-response-change/">a sacred fire</a> was extinguished despite the agreement between an Elder and Edmonton police that a few tents and the fire could remain. </p>
<p><a href="https://jessethistle.com/">Jesse Thistle</a>, a Métis-Cree assistant professor at York University, <a href="https://www.homelesshub.ca/IndigenousHomelessness#:%7E:text=Indigenous%20homelessness%20is%20a%20human,ability%20to%20acquire%20such%20housing.">has developed a definition</a> of Indigenous homelessness that doesn’t just encompass structure and property rights, but also land, traditions, ancestors and family — all of which amplify how the loss of community and relationships that are present at an encampment entrenches homelessness.</p>
<p>Housing scholar and activist Andrew Crosby <a href="https://doi.org/10.22215/etd/2022-15310">uses the concept of domicide</a> — the destruction of home — to examine how settler colonialism is founded on the destruction of Indigenous homes and lives. </p>
<p>Domicide is applicable to the encampment sweeps in Edmonton, the historical domicide that enabled the settlement of Edmonton in the first place, and the laws that governed the unsuccessful lawsuit launched by the Coalition for Justice and Human Rights.</p>
<h2>Coming together in colonialism</h2>
<p>Removing unhoused people, who are disproportionately Indigenous, illustrates that public land is not for living on and is instead settler colonial space. When authorities make reference to “public safety” concerns about encampment, unhoused people are positioned as dangerous. </p>
<p>The destruction of those encampments simply drives people who are unhoused further to the margins. Sweeps do not end people’s experiences of homelessness; they move them out of public view.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1753084864440803470"}"></div></p>
<p>The actions of the City of Edmonton, the city’s police force and the government of Alberta — as well as the courts — have coalesced into an attack on the human and treaty rights of people who are unhoused, as well as the continuation of the removal of Indigenous Peoples from their land.</p>
<p>Homelessness in Edmonton has resulted in <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/frostbite-amputations-hit-10-year-high-in-edmonton-last-winter-new-data-show-1.6709778">increased amputations</a> due to exposure to extreme cold, while encampment sweeps lead to the overburdening of a shelter system that is already inadequate and the denial of rest for people who are unhoused.</p>
<p>This isn’t to suggest that encampments should be enshrined as a human rights housing achievement. But punitive approaches like encampment sweeps perpetuate settler colonialism and prioritize the perceptions and preferences of the ruling class.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie MacDonald receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>Encampment sweeps in Edmonton are a brutal attack on both human and treaty rights, as well as a continuation of the violent removal of Indigenous Peoples from their land.Katie MacDonald, Associate Professor of Sociology and Interdisciplinary Studies, Athabasca UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172562024-02-06T23:06:30Z2024-02-06T23:06:30ZTurkey’s push for post-earthquake reconstruction puts speed over housing quality<p>It has been a year since <a href="https://apnews.com/article/earthquake-turkey-syria-february-2023-62dba95d0608a3a587ddd2fe5ec39541">two powerful earthquakes</a>, magnitude 7.8 and 7.5, devastated parts of southeastern Turkey and northern Syria. The Feb. 6, 2023 earthquakes destroyed hundreds of thousands of buildings, killed <a href="https://apnews.com/article/turkey-earthquake-anniversary-hatay-kahramanmaras-77ca7874fbfbe15f898f12c2690216fb">almost 60,000 people</a> and left more than <a href="https://www.ungeneva.org/en/news-media/news/2023/02/78128/15-million-now-homeless-turkiye-after-quake-disaster-warn-un">1.5 million homeless</a>.</p>
<p>One year later, the region is still recovering from its <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64540696">most devastating disaster</a> in recent history. And significant changes are required in the way the reconstruction is taking place.</p>
<p>In Turkey, the disaster exposed persistent social inequality, widespread poverty, housing shortages and other systemic problems. <a href="https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2023-Kahramanmaras-and-Hatay-Earthquakes-Report.pdf">The need to repair infrastructure and rebuild hundreds of thousands of homes</a> presents a unique opportunity for transformative change. However, the Turkish government’s approach to disaster recovery poses challenges for that change. </p>
<h2>Politics of post-disaster action</h2>
<p>The government of president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has maintained existing policies and housing strategies, and this creates an obstacle to redressing the social and environmental injustices that led to the disaster.</p>
<p>For decades, the Turkish government has maintained a housing and reconstruction strategy that concentrates decision-making power in the central government and prioritizes speed and quantity over quality. </p>
<p>This year, the government expanded the capacity of the Ministry of the Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change (MEUPCC) to expropriate land. The Ministry has expropriated over 207 hectares of land in the <a href="https://www.gercekgundem.com/guncel/afet-yasasi-ilk-hatayi-vurdu-defne-rezerv-alani-ilan-edildi-442597">southern province of Hatay alone</a>. More expropriations are expected in other provinces.</p>
<p>Similar to previous reconstruction processes in the country, the strategy has been to facilitate new urban development in city outskirts and remote locations. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2006.03.002">Scholars have noted</a>, however, that this approach increases urban sprawl, exacerbates fragmentation and tends to neglect the historical significance of city centres, as well as the value of agricultural land and rural practices. </p>
<p>Prioritizing speedy construction over housing quality perpetuates social problems and increases environmental and economic costs in the long term.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/buildings-left-standing-in-turkey-offer-design-guidance-for-future-earthquake-resilient-construction-202089">Buildings left standing in Turkey offer design guidance for future earthquake-resilient construction</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Unequal access</h2>
<p>This is pretty much the same strategy that was implemented after <a href="https://www.sayistay.gov.tr/reports/download/m5pokdvgDW-bayindirlik-ve-iskan-bakanliginin-marmara-ve-duzce-depremleri-sonrasi-faaliyetle">the 1999 Marmara Earthquake</a>, the earthquakes in <a href="https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/izmirde-binlerce-konut-teslim-edildi-cevre-sehircilik-ve-iklim-degisikligi-bakani-murat-kurum-izmir-boyle-donustu-sira-11-ilde-42236523">Van (2011),</a> <a href="https://csb.gov.tr/bakanlik-elazig-da-24-ocak-2020-de-meydana-gelen-depremin-ardindan-yuruttugu-calismalarinda-sona-geldi-bakanlik-faaliyetleri-36248">Elazığ (2020),</a> and <a href="https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/izmirde-binlerce-konut-teslim-edildi-cevre-sehircilik-ve-iklim-degisikligi-bakani-murat-kurum-izmir-boyle-donustu-sira-11-ilde-42236523">İzmir (2020)</a> and the <a href="https://www.iha.com.tr/haber-bati-karadenizde-selin-vurdugu-ilceler-yeniden-ayaga-kaldirildi-1162107">2021 Western Black Sea floods</a>. </p>
<p>There are legal mechanisms in the country to conduct in-situ reconstruction and more careful urban transformation. However, the government keeps developing suburban areas because it is the <a href="https://tr.euronews.com/2023/02/21/toki-su-ana-kadar-kac-konut-yapti-deprem-bolgesinde-ne-kadar-surede-kac-konut-insa-edecek">easiest and fastest way to show that action is being taken</a>.</p>
<p>Yet, these new homes are not accessible to all.</p>
<p>Under the law only owners of moderately or severely damaged homes can access zero-interest loans for purchasing new units. This restricts the number of people eligible for post-disaster housing. In addition, many new settlements are located far from jobs, schools, services and other facilities. </p>
<p>Alternatives do exist to achieve quality, but they receive little attention from Erdoğan’s government.</p>
<h2>Co-operative housing in Turkey</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.31198/idealkent.1117042">Construction co-ops have existed in Turkey since the 1930s</a>. At the height of their popularity in 1988, co-operatives accounted for 35 per cent of total housing production. But political negligence, and the absence of a robust legal framework, have hindered the co-op movement and eroded public trust in community-based co-operatives. Today, co-operatives represent less than 0.1 per cent of housing production. </p>
<p>After the 1999 Marmara earthquake, a group of tenants, frustrated by their exclusion from government programs, formed a <a href="https://www.umutarsivi.org/hope/duzce-umut-evleri/">housing co-operative in Düzce</a>. Through participatory design, and community-driven construction, the co-op provided housing for 234 low-income families.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A series of apartment buildings under construction with cranes above." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568079/original/file-20240105-17-zfhmks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New apartments for earthquake survivors under construction in Kilis, southeastern Turkey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After the 2020 İzmir earthquake owners of moderately damaged houses were not eligible for financial support. About 30 families decided to create a similar version of the Düzce housing co-operative. With collaboration from the municipality, they established a co-operative construction project, <a href="https://www.halkkonut.org/">Halk Konut</a>. This co-op allowed earthquake-affected residents to lead both design and construction, while receiving technical and legal expertise from local authorities. </p>
<p>The municipality established a new office where co-operative members could work closely with municipal employees and helped Halk Konut members in negotiations with contractors. Although co-op members made the ultimate decisions, the office supervised both planning and construction activities. </p>
<p>The municipality also granted permission for building two additional floors. By selling the units in these two floors, the co-op received additional funds that made the operation economically feasible. </p>
<p>After construction is completed, co-ops are often dissolved. But during the process, they create a platform for collective discussions about ways to improve neighbourhoods, increase energy-efficiency and integrate public space and green areas. Co-ops also empower earthquake survivors by actively involving them in construction and design, and ensure affordability, sustainability, and community development. </p>
<p>One co-op member we interviewed said: “We didn’t know our neighbours before we initiated the co-operative effort. But now, we design and build our homes together and try to make our neighbourhood more liveable. Once the building is completed, we will organize workshops on civil rights, disasters, and climate change. We now collaborate with local universities, professional associations, and NGOs.”</p>
<p>Co-ops, however, do face several obstacles. Creating one is a long process that requires significant engagement. Despite efforts to reduce costs and share expenses, financing remains the most significant challenge, especially for retired people and others with low incomes. Developing trust and consensus among co-op members can also be difficult. Tensions and conflicts sometimes emerge in a process that depends on mutual trust and engagement.</p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>With a focus on centralized provision of turnkey projects since 1999, creation of new co-operatives has dramatically decreased. Yet, the co-op model, with its democratic, inclusive, and restorative nature, holds the potential to improve reconstruction strategies in Turkey. It offers an empowering tool for disaster victims based on active participation on decisions about their own future.</p>
<p>Embracing alternative reconstruction methods like co-operative housing is paramount for a resilient future in Turkey. But the model needs to be backed by a comprehensive legal framework, including obligations for contractors to complete projects within the agreed time-frame and ensuring the protection of homeowners’ rights. </p>
<p>The Turkish government must decide whether to maintain outdated strategies or embrace alternative models. It is time to place better strategies at the forefront, steering towards a future where communities actively participate in shaping cities. Otherwise, Turkey will continue to build disconnected settlements with a significant social, financial and environmental cost.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217256/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gonzalo Lizarralde receives funding from multiple research agencies in Canada, including SSHRC and FRQSC. He is affiliated with i-Rec, an international network of disaster related specialists. He is the holder of the Fayolle-Magil Construction Research Chair of Université de Montréal.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fatma Ozdogan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As Turkey is recovering from the most devastating earthquake in its recent history, a timely opportunity emerges to change how to reconstruct housing.Fatma Ozdogan, PhD Student & Researcher, post-disaster reconstruction, Université de MontréalGonzalo Lizarralde, Professeur titulaire - Faculté de l'aménagement, Université de MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2227392024-02-06T19:09:37Z2024-02-06T19:09:37ZHow Albanese could tweak negative gearing to build more new homes<p>There are two things the prime minister needs to get into his head about tax. One is that saying he won’t make any further changes <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-albaneses-stage-3-rework-invites-a-wider-tax-debate-the-government-doesnt-want-to-have-222493">no longer works</a>. The other is that negative gearing doesn’t do much to get people into homes.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese seemed to have taken the first point on board when he spoke to <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/television-interview-abc-insiders-1">The Insiders</a> on Sunday. </p>
<p>Rather than promising flat-out not to change the rules around negative gearing, he merely said he was</p>
<blockquote>
<p>supportive of the current rules, we have not considered changes to them</p>
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<p>But he was less careful when it came to the virtues of negative gearing. He said there was</p>
<blockquote>
<p>a whole lot of analysis that says they encourage investment in housing, the key when it comes to housing is housing supply.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>His official advisers in the treasury don’t think negative gearing does much to increase the supply of housing – or, if they do, they omitted it from the six-page briefing note headed “<a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-11/foi-3456.pdf">negative gearing</a>”, prepared to help the treasurer answer questions about it in parliament.</p>
<h2>Our rules reward bad management</h2>
<p>Negative gearing is a particularly Australian tax benefit, which – unlike in other countries – benefits dud landlords: those who can’t make money by renting out properties.</p>
<p>If they lose money (by paying out more in interest, maintenance and other expenses than they are receiving in rent) we let them offset that loss, not only against income from other investments, but also against income from their wage or salary.</p>
<p>It means they can cut their wage for tax purposes, cutting the tax they pay on it. And at the same time, they can hang on to a property they can later sell for a profit, which will be taxed at only half the normal rate, thanks to Australia’s 50% discount on <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/individuals-and-families/investments-and-assets/capital-gains-tax/calculating-your-cgt">capital gains</a>.</p>
<p>It isn’t allowed in the <a href="https://www.taxrebateservices.co.uk/tax-faqs/uk-landlord-faqs/offset-rental-losses-against-other-income">United Kingdom</a> or the <a href="https://www.thebalancemoney.com/passive-activity-loss-rules-5197833">United States</a>. There, if you are a landlord who can’t make money, you can offset your losses against profits from other investments – but not against your wage.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.thomsonreuters.ca/en/dtprofessionalsuite/blog/losses-and-the-reasonable-expectation-of-profits.html">Canada</a> you <em>can</em> offset rental losses against wages, but there must have been an “an intention to make a profit”. That would probably rule out most Australian negative gearers.</p>
<h2>Most gearers don’t build homes</h2>
<p>In Australia, an astounding <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics/in-detail/taxation-statistics/taxation-statistics-2020-21/statistics/individuals-statistics#Table8Individuals">one million</a> of us negatively gear – more than one in nine taxpayers. In 2020-21 they claimed losses amounting to $8.7 billion – 3.5% of the income tax collected – meaning if they didn’t do it (if they didn’t claim for what seem to be deliberate losses) the rest of us could pay less tax.</p>
<p>What Albanese said on the weekend was half right. Negative gearing encourages investment. Most months, more than <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/dec-2023">one in three</a> new home loans is for an investment property.</p>
<p>But most of those loans don’t increase supply – the thing Albanese says matters.</p>
<p>That’s because the overwhelming bulk of investor home loans go to “investors” planning to buy existing homes – to bid against and likely beat would-be owner-occupiers.</p>
<p>In December 2023, only 23% of the loans to investors was used to build a home or buy a newly-built home. In November only 19%.</p>
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<p>As a means of getting more homes built, negative gearing leaks like a sieve. As a means of ensuring Australians continue to rent, rather than buy, it’s effective.</p>
<p>In the 20 or so years since the headline rate of capital gains tax was halved, supercharging negative gearing, the proportion of Australian households renting has climbed from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2001/0">26%</a> to <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/AUS">30%</a>. If those extra renters become owners, an extra 400,000 Australians would be in homes they could call their own.</p>
<h2>How to get better value from gearing</h2>
<p>The really bizarre thing is that Albanese has it in his power to ensure negative gearing does exactly what he said it did – supercharge the building of houses.</p>
<p>All he would need to do is what Labor promised to do in <a href="https://webarchive.nla.gov.au/awa/20160627043846/http://pandora.nla.gov.au/pan/158841/20160627-1111/www.100positivepolicies.org.au/positive_plan_on_housing_affordability_capital_gains_tax_reform.html">2016</a> and again in <a href="https://webarchive.nla.gov.au/awa/20190513154843/http://pandora.nla.gov.au/pan/175559/20190514-0131/www.alp.org.au/policies/reforming-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-arrangements/index.html">2019</a>. In those elections, Bill Shorten went to voters promising to limit the use of negative gearing to newly-built homes.</p>
<p>As Shorten put it, <a href="https://webarchive.nla.gov.au/awa/20160228235600/http://www.alp.org.au/negativegearing">taxpayers would</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>continue to be able to deduct net rental losses against their wage income, providing the losses come from newly constructed housing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The sieve would no longer leak. Every dollar of tax lost to a negative gearer would help build a home.</p>
<p>What would have happened if Shorten had got his way: if Australia both focused the use of negative gearing and cut the capital gains discount as he had proposed?</p>
<p>Modelling just published in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8454.12335">Australian Economic Papers</a> finds the share of households who own their home rather than renting it would have climbed 4.7%.</p>
<p>That’s security worth having, especially if it is accompanied by more homes.</p>
<h2>An idea whose time is coming?</h2>
<p>Australia’s Treasury has begun publishing estimates of the cost of the present unfocused system of negative gearing. Its latest, released last week, puts the cost at <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/p2024-489823">$2.7 billion</a> per year, to which should probably be added a chunk of the $19 billion per year lost as a result of the capital gains concession.</p>
<p>The estimates are new. Until <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3035/FOI_3388_document_for_release-redacted.pdf">Jim Chalmers</a> became treasurer, his department didn’t publish estimates of the cost of rental deductions. </p>
<p>Chalmers is far from the first treasurer to be curious about what the concession does. Scott Morrison expressed concern about the “<a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/tax-reform-treasurer-scott-morrison-investigates-negative-gearing-distribution/news-story/4c0ae584e9c15cc2f4db24f456831f12">excesses</a>” of negative gearing. </p>
<p>And Morrison’s predecessor, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/b15942d6-e86a-4a01-8094-d46337096349/&sid=0035">Joe Hockey</a>, said on leaving parliament that negative gearing should be skewed towards new housing, so “there is an incentive to add to the housing stock rather than an incentive to speculate on existing property”.</p>
<p>Albanese is normally cautious. But as he is showing us right with his rejigged Stage 3 tax cuts, there are times when he is not. </p>
<p>If he really wants to throw everything he has got at building more homes, he knows what to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222739/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation. </span></em></p>An astounding one in nine taxpayers negatively gear, costing Australia more than $2.7 billion a year. Here’s how we could get better value for that money – and supercharge investment in new housing.Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219542024-02-04T13:33:44Z2024-02-04T13:33:44ZTwo-thirds of Canadian and American renters are in unaffordable housing situations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572601/original/file-20240131-17-86e7f5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=55%2C30%2C4032%2C2811&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A new study has found that nearly two-thirds of Canadians and Americans are significantly rent-burdened.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even as housing markets cool in some areas, housing affordability in Canada is <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10167093/housing-affordability-bank-canada-index/">the worst in over four decades</a> due, in part, to sustained post-pandemic inflation and comparatively higher interest rates. </p>
<p>According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation — the federal Crown corporation responsible for administering Canada’s National Housing Act — affordability is defined as <a href="https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/industry-innovation-and-leadership/industry-expertise/affordable-housing/about-affordable-housing/affordable-housing-in-canada">mortgage or rent payments that do not exceed more than 30 per cent of a household’s gross monthly income</a>. </p>
<p>If a family makes $50,000 per year before taxes, for instance, anything more than $15,000 per year (or $1,250 per month) spent on rent would put them in an unaffordable situation. </p>
<p>Unaffordable housing situations have been shown to have serious negative outcomes related to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2010.08.002">communities’ health</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.07.001">crime rates</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0267303042000204296">homelessness</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2005.9521542">the well-being of children</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2020.101668">economic growth</a>. </p>
<p>Accordingly, younger generations are <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/millennial-homeownership-still-lagging-behind-previous-generations-7510642">deferring the homeownership dream</a> because of their inability to secure mortgage financing, limited entry-level homeownership options and insufficient incomes.</p>
<p>To date, most research and policy work has focused on homeownership, with little emphasis on understanding the current state of rental affordability. It is becoming increasingly important to address affordability, <a href="https://financialpost.com/real-estate/rents-climb-this-spring-supply-tightens-markets">as demand for rental housing has surged</a> since homeownership is becoming out of reach.</p>
<h2>Unaffordability is a growing concern</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://www.uregina.ca/business/faculty-staff/faculty/wilson-grant.html">economic and strategic management researchers</a>, we were curious about three things: the percentage of individuals or families that are in unaffordable rental situations, how household spending patterns have changed to make ends meet, and whether knowledge of rental economics impacts the likelihood of being in an affordable rental situation.</p>
<p>In our forthcoming study of over 1,000 renters in North America in 2023, we examined household income, monthly expenditures (e.g., rent, food, transportation, clothing, travel, etc.) and knowledge of affordability and basic economics. </p>
<p>We assessed affordability understanding by asking participants if they understood the 30 per cent expenditure rule through a series of questions. Renters were self-identifed and recruited via Prolific, the international survey panel.</p>
<p>By comparing the annual incomes and rental expenditures of households in our sample, results showed that 63 per cent of renters were in unaffordable situations. This means nearly two-thirds of Canadians and Americans are significantly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098016665953">rent-burdened</a>.</p>
<p>Although we expected the results to indicate some unaffordability situations, we did not expect it to be this great. </p>
<h2>Solutions to rental crisis</h2>
<p>Our data confirms that unaffordability is not just a homeownership issue, but also extends to the rental market. Given that lasting unaffordability has both <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.06.014">social and macroeconomic consequences</a>, it is critical that policymakers and industry leaders seek long-term fixes. </p>
<p>But solutions are complex and require a unified approach. Governments must ensure the rental housing supply is efficient to address the increasing affordability concern. </p>
<p>This means Crown corporations and government investments need to be more common. Additionally, civic policies need to promote new housing development and private investment.</p>
<p>For real estate organizations, the demand for affordable rental housing suggests the need to <a href="https://www.avenuelivingam.com/insights/retrofits-housing-supply/">invest in renovating existing accommodations to maintain adequate housing stock</a> and for developers to prioritize new, affordable rental solutions. </p>
<h2>The knowledge and rental affordability link</h2>
<p>One of the most interesting relationships we found in our data was related to “affordability knowledge” — or the expertise tenants have and use to make economical rental housing choices — and the percentage of income spent on rent. </p>
<p>Specifically, as affordability knowledge increased, the likelihood of being in an unaffordable rental accommodation decreased. The data suggests that the more people know about rental affordability, the better they can make informed rental decisions. This is noteworthy, as most of the recent emphasis has been on how governments, developers and landlords can make housing more affordable. </p>
<p>In addition to <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/we-re-focussing-on-housing-affordability-for-essential-workers-avenue-living-ceo%7E2545781">affordability efforts by major players in the market</a>, affordability education has an important role to play and should be a top priority for policymakers. Investments in educational campaigns could improve household decision-making and rental affordability.</p>
<p>Historically, households have been good at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/s136898000700081x">prioritizing their needs versus wants</a> in economic crises. Unfortunately, our results showed that individuals and families are cutting back on more than just luxury items. </p>
<p>For instance, in all areas of spending, households in unaffordable situations are making budget cuts on everything from groceries to physical activities. In short sprints, these spending re-allocations can be justified and even credited as fiscal responsibility. </p>
<p>But over time, these changes can have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2015.1020321">lasting health and wellness effects</a>. So while renters have an important role to play, the responsibility doesn’t just fall on their shoulders — strategies require participation from governments and developers as well.</p>
<h2>Where to next?</h2>
<p>Although the most straightforward path to rental affordability in Canada and the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103427">relates to increasing supply</a>, such as increasing new rental stock, a holistic approach that includes educating renters on affordability and basic housing economics can also be beneficial. </p>
<p>However, this is only a partial remedy for more systemic issue of a lack of affordable rental housing in developed economies in our study of Canadian and American renters.</p>
<p>Addressing the rent affordability crisis requires effective civic policies and planning as well as private sector investment and participation to ensure long-term sustainable housing.</p>
<p><em>This is a corrected version of a story originally published on Feb. 4. An earlier version of the story said the Canada Infrastructure Bank had invested $150 million in sustainable affordable housing. In fact, the Canada Infrastructure Bank committed $150 million towards sustainable retrofit projects with Avenue Living.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grant Alexander Wilson has consulted for, and received research funding from, the real estate owner/operator Avenue Living.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tyler Case does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most research on unaffordable housing has focused on homeownership, but rental affordability is also a serious issue.Grant Alexander Wilson, Assistant Professor, Hill and Levene Schools of Business, University of ReginaTyler Case, Assistant Professor, Edwards School of Business, University of SaskatchewanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221262024-01-29T19:05:42Z2024-01-29T19:05:42ZAustralia is welcoming more migrants but they lack the skills to build more houses<p>Australia has an acute shortage of housing. Renters across the country face steep rents rises and <a href="https://sqmresearch.com.au/uploads/15_1_24_National_Vacancy_Rate_December_2023_FINAL.pdf">record-low vacancy rates</a>.</p>
<p>At the same time, net overseas migration has surged to a <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release#national">record high of 518,100</a> in the past financial year as international students, working holiday-makers, and sponsored workers returned to Australia after our international borders reopened and fewer migrants departed.</p>
<p>The trouble is, very few migrants arriving in Australia come with the skills to build the extra homes we need. </p>
<h2>Migrants are back but lack home building expertise</h2>
<p>Migrants are less likely to work in construction than in most other industries. About 32% of Australian workers were foreign born, but only about 24% of workers in building and construction were born overseas. </p>
<p>And very few recent migrants work in construction. Migrants who arrived in Australia less than five years ago account for just 2.8% of the construction workforce, but account for 4.4% of all workers in Australia.</p>
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<p>Most migrants who work in construction in Australia have been here for a long time. The largest migrant groups in construction are permanent skilled migrants (including their spouses and children), followed by New Zealand citizens (who can remain in Australia indefinitely on a temporary visa) and permanent family visa-holders (many of whom arrived in Australia long ago as the spouses of Australian citizens). </p>
<p>But among those migrant groups where we’re now seeing the biggest rebound in numbers – international students, international graduates and working holiday makers – relatively few work in construction. And just 0.5% of all construction workers are on a temporary skilled visa.</p>
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<p>Changing this situation won’t be easy. After all, Australia rightly wants to attract highly skilled migrants who will make the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/australias-migration-opportunity-how-rethinking-skilled-migration-can-solve-some-of-our-biggest-problems/">biggest long-term contribution</a> to the country.</p>
<p>That means selecting highly skilled migrants – mostly tertiary-trained professionals. However, the construction workforce is one of Australia’s least educated. Just 22% of Australia’s construction workforce hold a diploma-level qualification or higher – the least of any industry. </p>
<h2>What the government should do</h2>
<p>But there are steps the federal government can take to make Australia more attractive to skilled trades workers who can help build the homes we desperately need.</p>
<p>First, the government should make it easier for employers to sponsor skilled trades workers to get a visa. </p>
<p>It should abolish labour-market testing and reduce sponsorship fees for the new <a href="https://www.migrationexpert.com.au/blog/core-skills-pathway-skills-in-demand-visa/">“Core Skills”</a> temporary sponsored visa stream – for skilled workers earning between A$70,000 and A$135,000 a year – to encourage more skilled trades workers to migrate to Australia. </p>
<p>The introduction of labour-market testing and extra fees like the <a href="https://www.dewr.gov.au/skilling-australians-fund-levy">Skilling Australians Fund Levy</a> are big reasons why the number of <a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dga-2515b21d-0dba-4810-afd4-ac8dd92e873e/details?q=temporary%5C%20migration">visas granted</a> to temporary sponsored workers in construction has fallen from more than 9,000 in 2011-12 to just 4,021 in 2022-23. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-skilled-migration-policy-changed-how-and-where-migrants-settle-215068">Australia's skilled migration policy changed how and where migrants settle</a>
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<p>The government should also extend its new streamlined, high-wage <a href="https://www.migrationexpert.com.au/blog/working-in-australia/specialist-skills-pathway-revealed/">“Specialist Skills Pathway”</a> sponsored visa stream to skilled trades workers. </p>
<p>That pathway will be offered to workers who earn at least $135,000 a year. Visas will be approved in a median time of just seven days. Yet skilled trades workers earning more than $135,000 won’t qualify for the new streamlined pathway. </p>
<p>Second, the government should streamline the skills and occupational licensing process for skilled trades workers. </p>
<p>Currently, overseas qualified tradespeople must have their skills assessed separately to qualify for a skilled visa and to be granted a licence by a state or territory to practise their trade once in Australia. </p>
<p>The recent <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/reports-and-pubs/files/review-migration-system-final-report.pdf">Parkinson Migration Review</a> showed how that process can cost more than $9,000 for some skilled trades and take up to 18 months. </p>
<p>The Albanese government should work with states and territories to better align these processes. And it should pursue greater mutual recognition of qualifications and licences with other countries for skilled trades, as <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/productivity/report/productivity-volume7-labour-market.pdf">recommended recently</a> by the Productivity Commission. </p>
<p>Migration offers big benefits to Australia. But we’d benefit even more if it provided more of the skilled workers we need to help fix the housing shortage.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-prefab-building-revolution-can-help-resolve-both-the-climate-and-housing-crises-220290">A prefab building revolution can help resolve both the climate and housing crises</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute's board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website. We would also like to thank the Scanlon Foundation for its generous support of our migration research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Trent Wiltshire does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia needs more housing and is getting more migrants. But we need more of those migrants to be able to help build those houses.Brendan Coates, Program Director, Economic Policy, Grattan InstituteTrent Wiltshire, Deputy Program Director, Migration and Labour Markets, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193132024-01-17T19:07:24Z2024-01-17T19:07:24ZThe YIMBY movement is spreading around the world. What does it mean for Australia’s housing crisis?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569700/original/file-20240116-29-trp1q6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C0%2C4977%2C2994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">San Francisco skyline.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marti Bug Catcher/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>2024 looks set to be another year of rising rents, stalling supply and intense debate over how to respond to the housing crisis. </p>
<p>Occupying an increasingly prominent place in that debate is the YIMBY movement. Short for “Yes, In My Backyard”, YIMBY is a play on the well-known pejorative NIMBY, which has long been applied to residents opposed to change in their local area.</p>
<p>Where did YIMBYism come from? Who are the YIMBYs? How are they reshaping the politics of housing in the 21st century? </p>
<p>These are the questions tackled in sociologist Max Holleran’s book <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691200224/yes-to-the-city">Yes to the City: Millennials and the Fight for Affordable Housing</a>. It is, to date, the most authoritative study of the rise of YIMBYism and its spread throughout the United States and beyond.</p>
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<p><em>Yes to the City: Millennials and the Fight for Affordable Housing – Max Holleran (Princeton University Press)</em></p>
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<h2>What is YIMBYism?</h2>
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<p>YIMBYism focuses on increasing housing supply, particularly higher-density infill housing, as the solution to housing affordability. It does so by targeting barriers to new construction, such as zoning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/yimbys-and-nimbys-unite-you-can-have-both-heritage-protection-and-more-housing-206765">heritage protections</a> and design standards. </p>
<p>The development and construction industries have long targeted such restrictions. Grassroots organisations and non-profit housing advocates, on the other hand, have focused on measures like social and affordable housing, ending tax concessions for property investors and rent regulation. </p>
<p>YIMBYs take a different approach. They argue that building more housing – even at the upper end of the property market – will improve affordability overall through the process of “<a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/387">filtering</a>” by freeing up more affordable, lower-quality housing.</p>
<p>Thus, Holleran writes, YIMBYs are </p>
<blockquote>
<p>promoting a new framing within the housing debate: concentrating on supply-side mechanisms, working with (not against) developers, and emphasising the rights of middle-class newcomers to wealthy cities. </p>
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<h2>Who are the YIMBYs?</h2>
<p>Holleran depicts YIMBYism as a mostly white, middle-class movement. It has arisen in cities like San Francisco, Boulder and Austin, where young professionals earn good salaries but face soaring housing costs. </p>
<p>Many YIMBYs work in the booming tech industry, which has helped drive population growth in those cities and contributed to housing pressures. As one of Halloran’s interviewees puts it, YIMBYs </p>
<blockquote>
<p>are often the ones who have done everything right […] the university grads with knowledge-sector jobs, but the prices are so high now they feel like they’ve done something wrong with their lives. </p>
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<p>The tech industry has played significant financial, cultural and ideological roles in the growth of YIMBYism – particularly in San Francisco, where the movement originated. Holleran sees a “tech-oriented practicality” among YIMBYs. They pursue a “technocratic insider’s game for the highly educated”. They believe their “ideological flexibility is useful for getting things done”. </p>
<p>Tech corporations have also made <a href="https://www.housingisahumanright.org/inside-game-california-yimby-scott-wiener-and-big-tech-troubling-housing-push/">significant financial contributions</a> to a range of YIMBY organisations and aligned politicians. </p>
<h2>The politics of YIMBY</h2>
<p>YIMBYs often see housing affordability as a conflict between wealthy “baby boomer” homeowners, who purchased property when it was cheaper and often aided by government subsidies, and millennials, who can’t afford to buy due to opposition to new development from those boomer homeowners. </p>
<p>Yet, framing the issue of housing affordability as a conflict between generations can elide its class and race dimensions. This elision has been a source of tension between YIMBY groups and established, racially diverse and working-class anti-gentrification organisations.</p>
<p>The YIMBYs’ call to “build more of everything” has led them to support projects that have replaced cheaper housing with more expensive housing, and displaced existing residents in the process. </p>
<p>San Francisco YIMBYs, for example, initially agreed with anti-gentrification activists to concentrate their efforts on middle- and high-income parts of the city. But they later betrayed this agreement, supporting projects opposed by local activists in the Mission District. </p>
<p>This “showdown” between YIMBYs and anti-gentrification activists is at the heart of Holleran’s book: </p>
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<p>The former see themselves as expanding the struggle; the latter think the new focus is missing the crucial goal: helping those in most need. </p>
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<p>This conflict is a useful jumping-off point to consider the implications of the rise of YIMBYism in Australia. </p>
<h2>YIMBYism in Australia</h2>
<p>Yes to the City was written before the establishment of <a href="https://www.greatercanberra.org/">Greater Canberra</a>, <a href="https://www.yimbymelbourne.org.au/">YIMBY Melbourne</a>, <a href="https://www.sydney.yimby.au/">Sydney YIMBY</a>, and the <a href="https://www.housingnow.com.au/">Housing Now!</a> coalition – organisations that have experienced a rapid rise to prominence. Judging by recent reforms in <a href="https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/policy-and-legislation/housing/housing-supply">New South Wales, especially</a>, they can claim some success in influencing government policies. </p>
<p>Holleran’s book does, however, discuss the work of <a href="https://thewestsider.com.au/two-sides-of-the-coin-the-launch-housing-project-debate-part-two/">HousingAIM</a> in western Melbourne (AIM stands for “Affordable Inclusive Maribyrnong”). Active in the 2010s, the group was originally named “Yes in Maribyrnong’s Backyard”. </p>
<p>Unlike its US counterparts, HousingAIM concentrated on affordable housing developments. It strove to protect the diverse working-class character of the Melbourne suburb of Footscray, with <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/building-more-social-housing-melbournes-west">some success</a>. </p>
<p>There are some practical difficulties with the YIMBY formula. Rezoning urban areas for higher density development might increase housing supply and improve affordability eventually. But it will take a long time to have even a <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/387">relatively modest effect</a> and risks <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-metros-sydenham-to-bankstown-line-nirvana-or-nightmare-65247">displacing lower-income households</a> into worse housing in the meantime. </p>
<p>Targeting higher-income areas involves fewer displacement risks, but it means focusing on areas where <a href="https://theconversation.com/nimbyism-in-sydney-is-leading-to-racist-outcomes-207204">opposition to new development is strongest</a>.</p>
<p>The popularisation of YIMBYism also carries the risk that governments will present up-zoning as a panacea and continue to ignore other solutions, such as legal protections against evictions and <a href="https://theconversation.com/rent-regulations-are-no-silver-bullet-but-they-would-help-make-renting-fairer-218579">rent increases</a>, ending landlord tax concessions and <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-the-1-5-million-australians-getting-rent-assistance-need-an-increase-but-more-public-housing-is-the-lasting-fix-for-the-crisis-200908">investment in public housing</a>. </p>
<p>Politicians, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and NSW Premier Chris Minns, have repeatedly argued that the key to solving the housing crisis is planning reform to increase supply, by way of fending off these more contentious or costly proposals. </p>
<p>How YIMBY organisations approach these other solutions, and the question of gentrification more broadly, will shape their reception and determine the possibilities for collaboration and alliance building. </p>
<p>Australia’s housing problems show no sign of abating, and the political capital of YIMBYism looks set to grow. How that political capital is expended will have important implications for housing reform and urban life.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219313/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alistair Sisson has received funding from the Tenants' Union of NSW, Australian Council of Social Service, Shelter NSW, QShelter, National Shelter, Mission Australia and Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute. He is a member of Shelter NSW. </span></em></p>Australia’s housing crisis shows no sign of abating, but planning reforms to increase supply is only part of the solution.Alistair Sisson, Macquarie University Research Fellow, School of Social Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196172023-12-26T20:29:23Z2023-12-26T20:29:23ZNZ report card 2023: near the top of the class in some areas, room for improvement elsewhere<p>End-of-year results aren’t only for school and university students. Countries, too, can be measured for their progress – or lack of it – across numerous categories and subject areas. </p>
<p>This report card provides a snapshot of how New Zealand has fared in 2023. Given the change of government, it will be a useful benchmark for future progress reports. (Somewhat appropriately, the coalition seems keen on standardised testing in education.)</p>
<p>It’s important to remember that this exercise is for fun and debate. International and domestic indices and rankings should be read with a degree of caution – measurements, metrics and numbers from 2023 tell us only so much. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, it’s still possible to trace the nation’s ups and downs. As the year draws to an end, we can use these statistics and rankings to decide whether New Zealand really is the best country in the world – or whether we need to make some additional new year’s resolutions.</p>
<h2>International pass marks</h2>
<p>Overall, the country held its own internationally when it came to democratic values, freedoms and standards. But there was a little slippage.</p>
<p>Despite falling a spot, Transparency International ranked New Zealand <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022">second-equal</a> (next to Finland) for being relatively corruption-free. </p>
<p>In the Global Peace Index, New Zealand dropped two places, now <a href="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/maps/">fourth-best</a> for safety and security, low domestic and international conflict, and degree of militarisation.</p>
<p>The country held its ground in two categories. Freedom House underlined New Zealand’s near-perfect score of <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores">99 out of 100</a> for political and civil liberties – but three Scandinavian countries scored a perfect 100. The <a href="https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-gender-gap-report-2023/">Global Gender Gap Report</a> recorded New Zealand as steady, the fourth-most-gender-equal country. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-winston-peters-right-to-call-state-funded-journalism-bribery-or-is-there-a-bigger-threat-to-democracy-218782">Is Winston Peters right to call state-funded journalism ‘bribery’ – or is there a bigger threat to democracy?</a>
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<p>Supplementary work by the United Nations Development Programme shows New Zealand making impressive strides in breaking down <a href="https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-06/gsni202302pdf_0.pdf">gender bias</a>.</p>
<p>The Index for Economic Freedom, which covers everything from property rights to financial freedom, again placed New Zealand <a href="https://www.heritage.org/index/">fifth</a>, but our grade average is falling. We also dropped a place in the World Justice Project’s <a href="https://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-of-law-index/">Rule of Law Index</a> to eighth.</p>
<p>New Zealanders are about as happy as they were last year, still the tenth-most-cheery nation, according to the <a href="https://worldhappiness.report/">World Happiness Report</a>.</p>
<p>The Human Development Index did not report this year (New Zealand was 13th in 2022). But the <a href="https://www.prosperity.com/rankings">Legatum Prosperity Index</a>, another broad measure covering everything from social capital to living conditions, put New Zealand tenth overall – reflecting a slow decline from seventh in 2011.</p>
<p>The Economist’s <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/global-liveability-index-2023/">Global Liveability Index</a> has Auckland at equal tenth, with Wellington racing up the charts to 23rd. (Hamilton, my home, is yet to register.)</p>
<p>While New Zealand registered a gradual slide in the Reporters Without Borders <a href="https://rsf.org/en/index">Press Freedom Index</a>, at 13th position it still ranks highly by comparison with other nations.</p>
<h2>Could do better</h2>
<p>New Zealand has seen some progress around assessment of terror risk. While the national terror threat level has remained at “<a href="https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/national-security/counter-terrorism#:%7E:text=New%2520Zealand's%2520current%2520national%2520terrorism,Zealanders%2520both%2520here%2520and%2520overseas.">low</a>”, the <a href="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/maps/global-terrorism-index/#/">Global Terrorism Index</a> ranked the country 46th – lower than the US, UK and Russia, but higher than Australia at 69th.</p>
<p>The country’s previous drop to 31st in the <a href="https://www.imd.org/centers/wcc/world-competitiveness-center/rankings/world-competitiveness-ranking/">Global Competitiveness Report</a> has stabilised, staying the same in 2023. </p>
<p>On the <a href="https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/Home">Global Innovation Index</a>, we came in 27th out of 132 economies – three spots worse than last year. <a href="https://kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2022/12/globalisation-index.html#:%7E:text=The%2520KOF%2520Globalisation%2520Index%2520measures,a%2520long%2520period%2520of%2520time.">The Globalisation Index</a>, which looks at economic, social and political contexts, ranks New Zealand only 42nd.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-the-climate-summits-first-health-day-points-to-what-needs-to-change-in-nz-218809">COP28: the climate summit’s first Health Day points to what needs to change in NZ</a>
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<p>But the country’s response to climate change is still considered “highly insufficient” by the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/">Climate Action Tracker</a>, which measures progress on meeting agreed global warming targets. The <a href="https://ccpi.org/">Climate Change Performance Index</a> is a little more generous, pegging New Zealand at 34th, still down one spot on last year.</p>
<p>New Zealand’s overseas development assistance – low as a percentage of GDP compared to other <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dac/financing-sustainable-development/development-finance-standards/official-development-assistance.htm">OECD countries</a> – had mixed reviews. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://odi.org/en/insights/principled-aid-index-2023-in-a-weaponised-world-smart-development-power-is-not-dead/">Principled Aid Index</a> – which looks at the purposes of aid for global co-operation, public spiritedness and addressing critical development goals – ranks New Zealand a lowly 22 out of 29. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/cdi#/">Commitment to Development Index</a>, which measures aid as well as other policies (from health to trade) of 40 of the world’s most powerful countries, has New Zealand in 19th place.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-willis-warns-of-fiscal-snakes-and-snails-her-first-mini-budget-will-be-a-test-of-nzs-no-surprises-finance-rules-218920">Nicola Willis warns of fiscal ‘snakes and snails’ – her first mini-budget will be a test of NZ’s no-surprises finance rules</a>
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<h2>Decent economic grades</h2>
<p>The economic numbers at home still tell a generally encouraging story:</p>
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<li><p>unemployment <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/unemployment-rate/">remains low at 3.9%</a>, still below the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/unemployment-rates-oecd-updated-november-2023.htm#:%7E:text=14%2520Nov%25202023%2520%252D%2520The%2520OECD,Figure%25202%2520and%2520Table%25201">OECD average of 4.8%.</a></p></li>
<li><p>median weekly earnings from wages and salaries <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/income-growth-for-wage-and-salary-earners-remains-strong/">continued to rise</a>, by NZ$84 (7.1%) to $1,273 in the year to June</p></li>
<li><p>inflation is rising, but the rate is slowing, <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-inflation-at-5-6-percent/#:%7E:text=New%2520Zealand's%2520consumers%2520price%2520index,to%2520the%2520June%25202023%2520quarter.">falling to 5.6%</a> in the 12 months to September</p></li>
<li><p>and good or bad news according to one’s perspective, annual house price growth appears to be slowly recovering, with the <a href="https://www.qv.co.nz/price-index/">average price now $907,387</a> – still considerably down from the peak at the turn of 2022.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It’s worth noting, too, that record net migration gain is boosting economic measurements. In the year to October 2023, 245,600 people arrived, with 116,700 departing, for an <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-migration-october-2023/">annual net gain</a> of 128,900 people.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-hopes-private-investors-will-fund-social-services-the-evidence-isnt-so-optimistic-218512">The government hopes private investors will fund social services – the evidence isn't so optimistic</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Room for social improvement</h2>
<p>In the year to June, <a href="https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/10/new-zealand-s-suicide-rate-increases-for-first-time-in-years.html">recorded suicides increased</a> to 565, or 10.6 people per 100,000. While an increase from 10.2 in 2022, this is still lower than the average rate over the past 14 years.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources/statistics/quarterly_prison_statistics/prison_stats_september_2023">Incarceration rates</a> began to rise again, climbing to 8,893 by the end of September, moving back towards the 10,000 figure from 2020.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/maori-suicide-rates-remain-too-high-involving-whanau-more-in-coronial-inquiries-should-be-a-priority-217254">Māori suicide rates remain too high – involving whānau more in coronial inquiries should be a priority</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Child poverty appears to be <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/child-poverty-statistics-show-no-annual-change-in-the-year-ended-june-2022/">stabilising</a>, with some reports suggesting improvements in longer-term trends. While commendable, this needs to be seen in perspective: one in ten children still live in households experiencing material hardship.</p>
<p>The stock of <a href="https://www.hud.govt.nz/stats-and-insights/the-government-housing-dashboard/public-homes/">public housing</a> continues to increase. As of October, there were 80,211 public houses, an increase of 3,940 from June 2022.</p>
<p>In short, New Zealand retains some bragging rights in important areas and is making modest progress in others, but that’s far from the whole picture. The final verdict has to be: a satisfactory to good effort, but considerable room for improvement.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219617/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand was mostly stable in key international rankings and domestic socio-economic measures. But there are signs of slippage in some areas and not enough progress in others.Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151462023-12-24T20:54:15Z2023-12-24T20:54:15ZWhat if I discover mould after I move into a rental property? What are my rights?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553157/original/file-20231011-21-rq753i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C59%2C4994%2C3259&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A startling number of Australian rental homes come with an unwanted housemate: mould.</p>
<p>If you discover mould in a rented home, who is responsible and what can you do if the landlord seems unwilling to fix it?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-related-disasters-leave-behind-trauma-and-worse-mental-health-housing-uncertainty-is-a-major-reason-why-206861">Climate-related disasters leave behind trauma and worse mental health. Housing uncertainty is a major reason why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Find the cause</h2>
<p>The landlord is responsible if the mould is caused by the structural condition of the property. This can include things like leaking pipes, gutters, roofs or windows. </p>
<p>Tenants are responsible for mould remediation if the way they occupy a home has promoted mould growth. For example, if they have not been using exhaust fans in bathrooms, have been failing to ventilate their home or have been storing wet clothes in a cupboard.</p>
<p>This means establishing the cause of the mould is crucial to working out who’s responsible for repairs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553158/original/file-20231011-29-newuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman looks at mould in a house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553158/original/file-20231011-29-newuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553158/original/file-20231011-29-newuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553158/original/file-20231011-29-newuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553158/original/file-20231011-29-newuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553158/original/file-20231011-29-newuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553158/original/file-20231011-29-newuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553158/original/file-20231011-29-newuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Establishing the cause of the mould is crucial.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are so many rentals mouldy?</h2>
<p>Australia has a rental home mould problem chiefly because much of our housing hasn’t been built to suit our climate. Houses tend not to be built with sufficient consideration of:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>efficient energy consumption to regulate indoor temperature</p></li>
<li><p>the orientation of homes</p></li>
<li><p>the use of double glazing and insulation to regulate temperature and humidity.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It is estimated that nearly 17% of privately rented homes and 22% of social housing dwelling require <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/housing/housing-mobility-and-conditions/2019-20">major repairs</a>. This includes structural defects, such as large cracks in walls or leaking gutters, that can generate mould growth. </p>
<p>Tenant representatives have said in the past there is also a problem of weak enforcement of laws concerning the <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022-11/AHURI-Final-Report-391-Regulation-of-residential-tenancies-and-impacts-on-investment.pdf">condition of rental homes</a>. </p>
<h2>4 ways to cut mould risk</h2>
<p>To reduce your mould risk, you need to manage indoor moisture and temperature. Try to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>keep the home well ventilated</p></li>
<li><p>open windows and use exhaust fans in the bathroom and kitchen</p></li>
<li><p>in humid climates, use air conditioning or a dehumidifier</p></li>
<li><p>in cold climate, use a dehumidifier (desiccant dehumidifiers might more appropriate in very cold places)</p></li>
<li><p>reduce moisture in the home by wiping up spills and condensation on surfaces</p></li>
<li><p>dry washing outside</p></li>
<li><p>if buying a dryer, opt for a condensing dryer instead of a conventional dryer (condensing driers put out much less vapour)</p></li>
<li><p>report any structural issues (such as leaking pipes or windows that don’t close properly) to the agent or landlord as soon as you notice them. </p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553160/original/file-20231011-17-d968r3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Washing and clothing dries on a rack indoors." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553160/original/file-20231011-17-d968r3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553160/original/file-20231011-17-d968r3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553160/original/file-20231011-17-d968r3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553160/original/file-20231011-17-d968r3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553160/original/file-20231011-17-d968r3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553160/original/file-20231011-17-d968r3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553160/original/file-20231011-17-d968r3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Don’t dry your washing inside.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rental minimum standards differ by state or territory</h2>
<p>In New South Wales, adequate ventilation is one of the <a href="https://www.fairtrading.nsw.gov.au/housing-and-property/renting/new-residential-tenancy-laws">minimum standards</a> properties must meet to be considered fit to live in.</p>
<p>If the rental provider has been notified about mould problems in the house but has failed to act, you might consider getting advice from the <a href="https://www.tenants.org.au/?gclid=CjwKCAiAjfyqBhAsEiwA-UdzJEj1YE27QhWKv2W5hPiiFTXMeX5Yqe61X4WlsHwRcq5kh5qDnU-MEBoC2LgQAvD_BwE">Tenants’ Union of NSW</a>. </p>
<p>Its <a href="https://www.tenants.org.au/factsheet-24-mould">fact sheet on mould</a> also explains what to do if you’d like to contact the <a href="https://www.ncat.nsw.gov.au">NSW Civil and Administrative Tribunal</a> to apply for repairs, rent reduction or compensation. </p>
<p>In Victoria, <a href="https://www.consumer.vic.gov.au/housing/renting/repairs-alterations-safety-and-pets/minimum-standards/minimum-standards-for-rental-properties">rental minimum standards</a> say “all rooms must be free from mould and damp caused by or related to the building structure.”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://tenantsvic.org.au/advice/common-problems/mould-and-damp/">Tenants Victoria</a> website has information on how to ask a landlord to fix a mould problem or structural problems leading to mould and how to apply to the <a href="https://www.vcat.vic.gov.au">Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal</a> if the landlord fails to act.</p>
<p>In Queensland, it depends on when you signed the lease. If you signed after September 1 this year (after new <a href="https://www.housing.qld.gov.au/about/initiatives/rental-law-reform">standards</a> were introduced) tenants should notify the landlords of <a href="https://www.rta.qld.gov.au/during-a-tenancy/maintenance-and-repairs/mould">mould as soon as they discover it</a>.</p>
<p>If mould is a result of problems with the property and the landlord doesn’t undertake repairs, tenants can contact the <a href="https://www.qcat.qld.gov.au">Queensland Civil and Administrative Tribunal</a>. </p>
<p>The guidelines in <a href="https://www.legislation.wa.gov.au/legislation/statutes.nsf/main_mrtitle_821_homepage.html">Western Australia</a> say the landlord must ensure the premises is “in a reasonable state of cleanliness and a reasonable state of repair […] and must conduct any repairs within a reasonable period after the need for the repair arises.” And in <a href="https://www.commerce.wa.gov.au/publications/maintenance-your-rental-property-who-responsible-landlord-bulletin-issue-12-september">Western Australia</a>, mould caused by faults in gutters or other fixtures is the responsibility of the rental provider. Further information on <a href="https://www.commerce.wa.gov.au/consumer-protection/resolving-rental-property-issues">what to do</a> if a dispute over the premises can’t be resolved amicably is available on the state government website.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.housingsafetyauthority.sa.gov.au/minimum-housing-standards/whole-property">South Australia</a> rental properties must be “reasonably free from mould or other irritants [and] reasonably free from the adverse effects of moisture or damp.” If a landlord refuses to fix something after being asked, the tenant can <a href="https://www.sa.gov.au/topics/housing/renting-and-letting/renting-privately/during-a-tenancy/Repairs-and-maintenance">apply to the South Australian Civil and Administrative Tribunal</a>.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.cbos.tas.gov.au/topics/housing/renting/rental-maintenance-repairs-changes/requesting-repairs">Tasmania</a>, rental properties must be clean and in good repair when leased out. <a href="https://www.cbos.tas.gov.au/topics/housing/renting/beginning-tenancy/minimum-standards/types">According to</a> the Tasmanian government website on the issue, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>‘Clean’ includes having no […] serious mould/rising damp issues.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If the tenant requests repairs and the landlord doesn’t act, the tenant can lodge a repair order with the <a href="https://www.cbos.tas.gov.au/topics/housing/renting/rental-maintenance-repairs-changes/requesting-repairs">Commisioner’s office</a>. </p>
<p>In the Australian Capital Territory, the Tenants’ Union ACT has guidance on what to do if you discover <a href="https://www.tenantsact.org.au/what-can-i-do-about-mould/">mould</a> in a property you rent.</p>
<p>In the Northern Territory, tenants may wish to seek advice from the <a href="https://www.dcls.org.au/tenants-advice/">Tenants’ Advice Service</a> if there is a mould problem in a property they rent.</p>
<h2>What policy change could help?</h2>
<p>If the cause of indoor mould is related to the design and construction of the house, rental providers should act. But tenants may not have the information they need to determine and substantiate this claim and can’t do much to get rental providers to act on mould if it’s not clear what’s causing it. Also, renters often worry asking for repairs could lead to a rent increase or eviction.</p>
<p>Solutions include strengthening tenants rights to compel landlords to investigate the cause of mould in a house (given that knowing the cause is essential to assign responsibility for repairs). There should also be more stringent enforcement of current minimum standards relating to mould in rental properties.</p>
<p>Given the scale of problems like mould in Australian homes, policymakers may wish to consider whether a parliamentary inquiry on home environments and health is needed. </p>
<p>This would give Australians a chance to speak about their experiences – something that could help policy makers improve regulation in the rental sector. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sudden-mould-outbreak-after-all-this-rain-youre-not-alone-but-you-are-at-risk-177820">Sudden mould outbreak after all this rain? You’re not alone – but you are at risk</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215146/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Bentley receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Law is the Technical Lead for Building Sciences at Restoration Industry Consultants (RIC). He has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Australian Building Codes Board, the Victorian Building Authority, Consumer Building and Occupation Services (Tasmania) and Commercialisation Australia.</span></em></p>If the cause of the mould is related to the design and construction of the house, rental providers should act.Rebecca Bentley, Professor of Social Epidemiology and Director of the Centre of Research Excellence in Healthy Housing at the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneTim Law, Adjunct lecturer, Victoria UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2199662023-12-21T21:54:53Z2023-12-21T21:54:53ZIt’s not just housing: the ‘bank of mum and dad’ is increasingly helping fund the lives of young Australians<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566790/original/file-20231220-15-irhy2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C8%2C5955%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/child-congratulations-graduates-business-man-house-713443921">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Much has been made of the increasing presence of the “bank of mum and dad” in the lives of Australians. </p>
<p>We know financial support from parents to adult children is increasingly used for entering the <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/395">housing market</a>. </p>
<p>But our new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/14407833231210956">research</a> shows parents are also helping their young adult children in other ways, including with meeting everyday expenses. We’ve gained new insights into who is receiving support from parents and what it’s used for.</p>
<p>So what does this look like in practice, and what does it mean for intergenerational inequality in Australia?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-housing-made-rich-australians-50-richer-leaving-renters-and-the-young-behind-and-how-to-fix-it-195189">How housing made rich Australians 50% richer, leaving renters and the young behind – and how to fix it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Parental financial support becoming commonplace</h2>
<p>We have surveyed a diverse group of young Australians for almost <a href="https://education.unimelb.edu.au/life-patterns">18 years</a>, since they were in year 12 in 2006. This has allowed us to follow the trajectory of a cohort of millennials as they have transitioned to adulthood. </p>
<p>One of the areas we ask about is their sources of financial support. This includes their own income, savings and investments, and government support, but also gifts, loans and other transfers from their family. </p>
<p>Our findings show that financial support from family – typically parents – has become important for this generation well into young adulthood. </p>
<p>This support from family was very common for our participants when they were in their late teens. Perhaps more surprisingly, for many this support continued into their 20s and, for a significant minority, into their late 20s and beyond. </p>
<p><iframe id="C64so" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/C64so/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>So is it only rich parents providing this assistance? Turns out, not really. Our results show young adults from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds get financial help. </p>
<p>Surprisingly, the educational level and occupation status of their parents did not predict whether our participants were receiving support. Parents with higher education and in managerial or professional careers are providing financial help. But so too are parents of more modest means, even if the amount of support they can provide clearly differs.</p>
<h2>It’s not just about houses</h2>
<p>Our participants are using this support to pay basic expenses. </p>
<p>One in five 32-year-olds in our study report struggling to pay for three or more basic expenses (we ask about food, rent or mortgage repayments, house bills and healthcare costs). These young adults are three times more likely than those not facing this struggle to report receiving financial support from their family. </p>
<p><iframe id="mFkCN" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mFkCN/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>These gifts and loans are also used to support parenting, and to support those working part-time out of choice or necessity.</p>
<p><iframe id="xuW0m" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xuW0m/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Some of our participants working part-time in their late 20s and early 30s are not in such a precarious position. They are receiving parental support while they pursue graduate study in medicine or law, for example. </p>
<p>So while some are using support to meet day-to-day needs, we also see parents helping their children “get ahead”. </p>
<p>Financial support is also used to pursue extended education and manage a period of insecure and poorly paid employment on the way to more secure and well-paid careers in medicine, academia or journalism.</p>
<p>This intergenerational support has social ramifications that go beyond buying property. Our research suggests it also shapes education pathways, employment, parenting, and potentially general wellbeing. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-well-off-you-are-depends-on-who-you-are-comparing-the-lives-of-australias-millennials-gen-xers-and-baby-boomers-172064">How well off you are depends on who you are. Comparing the lives of Australia's Millennials, Gen-Xers and Baby Boomers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>An outsized role for the bank of mum and dad</h2>
<p>Our results are an example of just how much life has changed in Australia. The growing challenges of cost of living and the effects of a booming housing market over many decades are changing the dynamics of inequality.</p>
<p>Most of the parents’ generation of the young people we have tracked are part of the Baby Boomer cohort. While there is substantial economic inequality within it, overall, this group benefited from the housing and other <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1600910X.2022.2058718">asset</a> booms over recent decades. </p>
<p>Many parents are using this foundation to help their children well beyond their teenage years. Of course, wealthy parents might find it easier to provide this support but are not the only parents providing it. For less wealthy parents, this might potentially change their plans for their own future and retirement. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-how-policies-favouring-rich-older-people-make-young-australians-generation-f-d-199403">Friday essay: how policies favouring rich, older people make young Australians Generation F-d</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Previous research has highlighted that the bank of mum and dad is becoming crucial for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2020.1754347">buying</a> a house and that this might exacerbate and entrench <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1600910X.2020.1752275">inequality</a> for future generations.</p>
<p>Our work suggests it goes beyond housing. Parents are helping combat financial insecurity for their young adult children across the board. Our data shows this widespread insecurity emerged before the current cost-of-living crisis, but current conditions are going to exacerbate it. </p>
<p>So we need to ask whether we want the bank of mum and dad to continue to play an ever-growing role in life chances in Australia. Based on our research, that change is already underway.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219966/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dan Woodman receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Cook receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Quentin Maire does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointments.</span></em></p>It’s now common knowledge loans and gifts from family are a large part of breaking into the housing market. But how is parental financial support being used in other areas?Dan Woodman, TR Ashworth Professor in Sociology, The University of MelbourneJulia Cook, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, University of NewcastleQuentin Maire, Senior Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2196882023-12-19T06:13:08Z2023-12-19T06:13:08ZGrenfell should have been a wake-up call – but the UK still doesn’t take fire safety seriously because of who is most at risk<p>In March 2023, a fire in Tower Hamlets, east London, claimed the life of Mizanur Rahman, a 41-year-old father-of-two from Bangladesh. <a href="https://www.london-fire.gov.uk/incidents/2023/march/flat-fire-shadwell/">Five fire engines and 35 firefighters</a> attended the call to the two-bedroom flat in Maddocks House, on the Tarling West housing estate, in the early hours of the morning.</p>
<p>Rahman, who had only recently arrived in the UK, was rescued and taken to the Royal London Hospital suffering from smoke inhalation, where he died from his injuries. On the night of the fire, estate residents claimed that <a href="https://tarlingwestestate.wordpress.com/2023/04/13/tarling-west-estate-residents-association-report-1-04-2023-on-recovery-ofresidents-of-18-maddocks-house-possessions-after-the-fire-on-friday-17-march-2023/">18 men</a> had been sleeping in the flat’s three rooms including a converted lounge – despite the premises only being licensed to accommodate a maximum of three people.</p>
<p>While the fire itself was caused by a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-66774376">faulty lithium e-bike battery</a>, an inspection by the London Fire Brigade prior to the fire had <a href="https://www.bigissue.com/news/housing/shadwell-flat-fire-maddocks-house-uk-housing-crisis/">raised serious safety concerns</a>, finding that the flat “was not in a good condition with multiple people living in it”.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GDiGJ-fuRM8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Report on the Maddocks House fire (March 2023). Film by Rainbow Collective.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Seven months after the fire, Tower Hamlets Council took the flat’s landlords to court for breaches of the 2004 Housing Act. They have subsequently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/landlords-of-crowded-london-flat-that-caught-fire-plead-guilty-to-criminal-charges">pleaded guilty</a> to nine charges <a href="https://www.towerhamlets.gov.uk/News_events/2023/November/Tower-Hamlets-landlords-plead-guilty-to-overcrowding-charges.aspx">including</a> multiple failures to comply with licence conditions, carry out inspections and have a valid gas safety certificate, as well as allowing the premises to be overcrowded. The landlords await sentencing.</p>
<p>However, following the inquest into Rahman’s death, the assistant coroner did not comment on overcrowding in the property in his <a href="https://www.judiciary.uk/prevention-of-future-death-reports/mizanur-rahman-prevention-of-future-deaths-report/">prevention of future deaths report</a>. He did, though, recommend that the government introduces standards regulating the sale of lithium batteries for e-bikes.</p>
<p>Ahead of the court case, <a href="https://grenfellunited.org.uk/about-us">Grenfell United</a>, a group of survivors and bereaved families founded days after the Grenfell Tower fire on June 14 2017, <a href="https://x.com/GrenfellUnited/status/1719025477854155043?s=20">pledged its support</a> to all those affected by the Maddocks House fire, stating:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Seven months since the Tarling West estate fire in which an innocent man lost his life … We stand with the family, residents, friends and all those campaigning for justice.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Grenfell disaster – the UK’s worst post-war residential fire – claimed the lives of 72 people in <a href="https://www.mylondon.news/lifestyle/londons-richest-poorest-boroughs-average-23380005">London’s richest borough</a>, Kensington & Chelsea. The <a href="https://www.grenfelltowerinquiry.org.uk/">inquiry into the disaster</a> is expected to make a host of recommendations about the need to strengthen residential fire safety when it is finally published, after <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/25/grenfell-tower-inquiry-final-report-delayed-again">yet more delays</a>, in 2024. But this is too late for Mizanur Rahman.</p>
<p>Indeed, more than six years after the Grenfell fire, community groups and homelessness charities have taken matters into their own hands to support renters and tenants who continue to be endangered by unsafe housing conditions in London and throughout the UK. But despite their best efforts, the risks facing residents of multiple-occupancy housing appear largely undiminished. Worryingly, policymakers – especially those who have responsibility for English housing and safety legislation – have seemingly forgotten the lessons from the UK’s <a href="https://uolpress.co.uk/book/before-grenfell/">past experiences of mass-fatality fire</a>.</p>
<h2>Another Grenfell-style fire?</h2>
<p>The Maddocks House fire added to widespread concerns that, despite Grenfell having been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/nov/10/every-death-was-avoidable-grenfell-tower-inquiry-closes-after-400-days">an eminently avoidable disaster</a>, another major fire involving a large loss of life could happen in a bedsit, converted flat or other <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2004/34/part/7/crossheading/meaning-of-house-in-multiple-occupation#:%7E:text=254Meaning%20of%20%E2%80%9Chouse%20in%20multiple%20occupation%E2%80%9D&text=(f)rents%20are%20payable%20or,occupation%20of%20the%20living%20accommodation.">house in multiple occupation</a>. In part, this is the result of safety being neglected by <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2016-06-10/debates/40C06C83-5A10-4F0B-8855-C10BF76E4182/Renters%E2%80%99RightsBill(HL)?highlight=%22the%20term%20%E2%80%98rogue%20landlord%E2%80%99%20is%20widely%20understood%20in%20the%20lettings%20industry%20to%20describe%20a%20landlord%20who%20knowingly%20flouts%20their%20obligations%20by%20renting%20out%20unsafe%20and%20substandard%20accommodation%20to%20tenants%2C%20many%20of%20whom%20may%20be%20vulnerable%22#contribution-50867390-8CF2-4915-B369-5DA6BCFF2699">rogue landlords</a> who <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2016-06-10/debates/40C06C83-5A10-4F0B-8855-C10BF76E4182/Renters%E2%80%99RightsBill(HL)?highlight=%22the%20term%20%E2%80%98rogue%20landlord%E2%80%99%20is%20widely%20understood%20in%20the%20lettings%20industry%20to%20describe%20a%20landlord%20who%20knowingly%20flouts%20their%20obligations%20by%20renting%20out%20unsafe%20and%20substandard%20accommodation%20to%20tenants%2C%20many%20of%20whom%20may%20be%20vulnerable%22#contribution-50867390-8CF2-4915-B369-5DA6BCFF2699">“knowingly flout their obligations</a> by renting out unsafe and substandard accommodation to tenants, many of whom may be vulnerable”.</p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.fsmatters.com/London-HMO-landlord-receives-substantial-fine">recently completed case</a> saw a landlord and property management company <a href="https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/newsroom/council-prosecutes-landlord-poor-housing-conditions-hyde-park-gate-houseshare">fined £480,000 plus costs</a> for leasing an unlicensed 22-bedroom property with multiple fire safety and damp-related risks in the same borough, Kensington & Chelsea, in which <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/ng-interactive/2017/nov/18/life-shadow-grenfell-tower-next-door">Grenfell Tower is located</a>. Throughout the UK, local authorities <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.1201/9781003246534-10/regulating-houses-multiple-occupation-hmos-louise-harford-kevin-thompson">face multiple challenges</a> – including lack of resources, limits to their legal powers, and cultural barriers – when reactively trying to regulate the standard of privately rented accommodation in houses in multiple occupation (known as HMOs).</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://blog.shelter.org.uk/2023/06/government-is-risking-another-fatal-fire-by-deregulating-hmo-accommodation/">Housing</a> and <a href="https://www.fbu.org.uk/news/2019/05/21/government-complacency-risks-another-grenfell">fire safety</a> campaigners have repeatedly warned of complacency over enforcing safety in the UK’s private rented sector, among others. In recent years, the government’s own safety experts have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/nov/16/experts-warned-government-of-tower-block-collapse-risk-last-year-leak-reveals">expressed concern</a> about ministers’ failures to tackle “potentially catastrophic life safety implications” in buildings ranging from tower blocks and HMOs to schools and hospitals.</p>
<p>Since 2022, the <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9428/">cost of living crisis</a> has left <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statutory-homelessness-in-england-january-to-march-2023/statutory-homelessness-in-england-january-to-march-2023">record numbers</a> of disadvantaged people living in overcrowded, unfit and unsafe accommodation – including families with young children, frail older people, those with long-term health conditions, university students and migrants. They have little hope of accessing affordable and safe housing. And people living in the private rented sector are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-housing-survey-2020-to-2021-feeling-safe-from-fire/english-housing-survey-2020-to-2021-feeling-safe-from-fire">twice as likely to feel unsafe in their home</a> as owner-occupiers, because of their fear that a fire might break out.</p>
<h2>A generation of rogue landlords</h2>
<p>While the campaign for improved standards of safety in HMOs originated in the 1960s, it intensified during the early 1980s following <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2023-06-07/debates/41061D9F-F385-4CF5-9B77-8EB8852381A3/IllegalMigrationBill?highlight=hmo%20fire#contribution-74FECC2F-0658-405B-905B-E19EBCDAA212">several mass-fatality fires</a> – as I chart in my new book, <a href="https://uolpress.co.uk/book/before-grenfell/">Before Grenfell: Fire, Safety and Deregulation in Twentieth-Century Britain</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565792/original/file-20231214-15-a47go8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Smoke coming out of the window of a large London apartment" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565792/original/file-20231214-15-a47go8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565792/original/file-20231214-15-a47go8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565792/original/file-20231214-15-a47go8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565792/original/file-20231214-15-a47go8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565792/original/file-20231214-15-a47go8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1184&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565792/original/file-20231214-15-a47go8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1184&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565792/original/file-20231214-15-a47go8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1184&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clanricarde Gardens fire (1981).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/">The National Archives</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Shortly before Christmas 1981, <a href="https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/before-grenfell/section/68c02bc3-7033-4d94-a928-9a2896e9c3b5">fire gutted a residential property</a> in Notting Hill Gate, west London, killing eight residents and injuring many more. The property comprised 56 bedsits across three converted terraced houses on Clanricarde Gardens, a once-fashionable cul-de-sac which, with its low-quality bed-and-breakfast-style accommodation, by then aimed at the cheaper end of London’s rental market. Although estimates vary, almost 100 people are thought to have been sleeping in the property on the night of the fire, which started around four o’clock in the morning. Local newspapers quoted a resident being woken by “a tremendous shouting and screaming”:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>At first I thought it was a Christmas party – but then I knew from the sound that this was no party. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/before-grenfell/section/68c02bc3-7033-4d94-a928-9a2896e9c3b5">Fire investigators</a> would later find numerous defects in the property, including combustible partition walls, unprotected staircases, a maze of corridors without fire-stopping doors, and a dangerously high electrical loading.</p>
<p>Six of the eight people who died were adult migrants who had come to Britain from Latin America and eastern Europe to study and work; the other two were elderly British men. Many of the residents were employed in the low-paid hospitality sector.</p>
<p>The survivors, having lost their possessions, were clothed and put up in hotels – then interviewed by officials from the Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea (RBKC) to determine their eligibility for rehousing. Due to a shortage of available housing, many were rejected. Some had no option but to <a href="https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/before-grenfell/section/68c02bc3-7033-4d94-a928-9a2896e9c3b5#footnote-061-backlink">move into the property next door</a> to the burnt-out shell of their former home.</p>
<p>The Clanricarde Gardens fire inquest exposed a generation of rogue London landlords who had placed profits before safety in their <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/1982-03-18/debates/888c059e-7af2-4781-8516-8341eb21e941/Hostels(London)?highlight=fire%20clanricarde#contribution-11c52e90-a78c-40d9-83f9-37f12681b496">unregulated “Victorian hostels”</a>. Major shortcomings were also revealed in the level of oversight from RBKC, which was identified as having some of the <a href="https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/before-grenfell/section/68c02bc3-7033-4d94-a928-9a2896e9c3b5#footnote-060">worst housing conditions</a> in the capital, with unregistered HMOs comprising between a quarter and a third of its housing stock. <a href="https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/before-grenfell/section/68c02bc3-7033-4d94-a928-9a2896e9c3b5#footnote-059">Early warnings</a> about the dangerous condition of the Notting Hill property had not been acted upon by officers at the time of the fire, and the council was subsequently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/jul/24/underfunded-and-overstretched-the-lawyers-seeking-justice-for-grenfell-tower-fire">found guilty of maladministration</a>.</p>
<p>The jury at the inquest returned a verdict of death by misadventure, but found no evidence of negligence by the landlord. <a href="https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/before-grenfell/section/68c02bc3-7033-4d94-a928-9a2896e9c3b5">The coroner</a> angered campaigners and survivors by declining to add recommendations for the government to improve safety. He claimed that the need to reconcile cheap accommodation for homeless people with “expensive” fire precautions was “insoluble”.</p>
<p>In the aftermath, the Campaign for Bedsit Rights (CBR) – led by tenacious housing activist <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/27/nick-beacock-obituary">Nick Beacock</a> – published a <a href="https://archive.org/details/firesafetyguidec0000unse">guide to fire safety</a> for tenants, issued a semi-regular newsletter, and collaborated with sympathetic members of parliament who advocated for statutory licensing and regulation of these “<a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/1983-02-25/debates/a0b92dae-fe08-41fe-8191-3c86a5853e9e/Housing(HousesInMultipleOccupation)Bill?highlight=housing%20houses%20multiple%20occupation#contribution-0bc09dc4-c3a9-4f49-b88e-be8171cd818a">Dickensian</a>” lodgings. The urgency of the situation was marked by the scale of homelessness across the capital at that time, with rough sleeping <a href="https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1985/dec/20/homelessness-london">on the rise</a> due to cuts in housing benefit.</p>
<p>Yet, in February 1983, a <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/1983-02-25/debates/a0b92dae-fe08-41fe-8191-3c86a5853e9e/Housing(HousesInMultipleOccupation)Bill">private members’ bill</a> to introduce licensing was defeated by the government despite enjoying strong cross-party support. Ministers defended the decision on the grounds of public spending restrictions and, <a href="https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/before-grenfell/section/68c02bc3-7033-4d94-a928-9a2896e9c3b5#footnote-052">in a quote attributed to housing minister George Young</a>, a reluctance to “add unnecessarily” to landlords’ costs in a way that might “discourage them from making accommodation available”. Throughout the 1980s, landlords’ interests were largely prioritised ahead of tenants’, in a decade that saw the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02673039608720868">deregulation of the private rental market</a>.</p>
<p>Four decades on, even after the public outcry following the Grenfell disaster, cases continue to highlight that, around the UK, local authorities vary widely in their interpretation and enforcement of their obligations over licensing rental properties. In many cases, they simply <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/19/landlords-double-income-ignoring-hmo-licence-overcrowding">lack the resources</a> to track landlords.</p>
<p>In July 2023, the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2023/36/enacted">Social Housing (Regulation) Act</a> was given royal assent, introducing a more proactive system whereby complaints about the standard of <a href="https://england.shelter.org.uk/support_us/campaigns/what_is_social_housing">social housing</a> can be investigated by the regulator. It has taken <a href="https://blog.shelter.org.uk/2023/07/royal-assent-transformation-social-housing/">almost six years</a> of campaigning by Grenfell United, Shelter and other organisations to get to this stage. However, the act does not cover the private rented sector, and much work is still needed to protect these residents.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gGcPtRcpeBU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A film by Grenfell United.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Years of inaction</h2>
<p>Over the decades since the 1983 defeat of the licensing bill, it is hard not to conclude that several deadly fires might have been prevented had the UK government introduced mandatory licensing, backed up by strong powers of enforcement.</p>
<p><a href="https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/before-grenfell/section/68c02bc3-7033-4d94-a928-9a2896e9c3b5#footnote-059">One notable incident</a>, in November 1984, involved the death of a 27-year-old Bangladeshi woman, Mrs Abdul Karim, and her two young children, aged three and five, in a five-storey HMO in Westminster, central London. Despite being a priority for rehousing, the family had lived in a single room at the top of an unenclosed staircase for the previous nine months. In all, more than 50 people lived in the property, including 18 families who had been accommodated there by Camden Borough Council.</p>
<p>Firefighters found as many as seven people sleeping in a single room, and rescued a baby sleeping in a cot in a bathroom. “It was a miracle more people were not killed,” a survivor told a local newspaper. A local homelessness charity representative described the fire as highlighting “all the things we have been saying about the conditions homeless families are forced to live in”. Eventually, following a <a href="https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/before-grenfell/section/68c02bc3-7033-4d94-a928-9a2896e9c3b5#footnote-059">two-week occupation</a> of Camden town hall by furious families, councillors rehoused the survivors in improved accommodation within the borough.</p>
<p>This fire exposed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673030903561842">historic racial inequalities</a> within London’s housing market, with many non-white families left to the whims of exploitative landlords. While the national media showed little interest, author Salmon Rushdie wrote an excoriating piece for the Guardian which was cited in a <a href="https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1984/dec/14/homeless-persons-accommodation">House of Commons debate</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When it started, no alarm rang. It had been switched off. The fire extinguishers were empty. The fire exits were blocked. It was night time but the stairs were in darkness because there were no bulbs in the lighting sockets. And in the single, cramped top-floor room where the cooker was next to the bed, Mrs Abdul Karim, a Bangladeshi woman, and her five-year-old son and three-year-old daughter died of suffocation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Rushdie pointed the finger of blame squarely at the racist landlords and councillors who persistently ignored the complaints of black and Asian families. He wrote: “Those of us who do not live in slum housing get used with remarkable ease to the fact that others do” – not least because black and Asian families “are far more likely than white ones to be placed in such ‘temporary’ places”.</p>
<p>After a Camden councillor was quoted by journalists as complaining that the town hall occupation had been “manipulated” by Bengali families" to jump the housing queue", Rushdie sarcastically added that “presumably not enough people have been burned to death yet” to improve the situation.</p>
<p>Following compelling evidence of systematic neglect of the property by its landlord, the inquest jury returned an open verdict on the deaths. Campaigners again called for powers to license hostels: Mel Cairns, an experienced environmental health officer, told a local paper: “People who look after dogs and cats need licences, and the same should apply to landlords who have human beings in their charge.”</p>
<p>The coroner concurred, demanding of ministers that “action be taken to prevent the occurrence of similar fatalities”. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/dec/10/chris-holmes">Chris Holmes</a>, director of the Campaign for the Homeless and Rootless (and a future government adviser on reducing street homelessness), <a href="https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1984/dec/14/homeless-persons-accommodation">concluded</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The fire at Gloucester Place tragically shows the need for there to be a legal duty on local authorities to inspect this kind of property. If an HMO Act had existed, that family need not have died.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Yet, despite compiling its own evidence on the extent of the risk, successive consultations by Conservative governments during the 1980s and 1990s rejected mandatory licensing on grounds of proportionality and cost. <a href="https://archive.org/details/firesafetyguidec0000unse/page/2/mode/2up">Four in every five HMOs</a> were identified as having inadequate means of escape in a fire, while the risk of death or injury due to fire was ten times greater for people living in an HMO than in a single-occupancy family house, according to Home Office figures from the early 1990s.</p>
<p>In 1994, a fire in a Scarborough hostel in which a 33-year-old woman and her two-year-old child died finally led the prime minister, John Major, to <a href="https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1994/may/05/engagements">pledge</a> his government to investigate “the feasibility of introducing a licensing system to control such establishments”. However, the following year, the Department of the Environment <a href="https://read.uolpress.co.uk/read/before-grenfell/section/68c02bc3-7033-4d94-a928-9a2896e9c3b5#footnote-018">concluded</a> that licensing “would lead to excessive cost and bureaucracy by forcing every local authority to follow a standard licensing approach”.</p>
<p>After further government obfuscation and more avoidable deaths, licensing of HMOs was finally introduced in the early 2000s. Although the ruling Labour party had <a href="http://www.labour-party.org.uk/manifestos/1997/1997-labour-manifesto.shtml">promised to introduce licensing</a> in the lead-up to both the 1997 and 2001 general elections, it took further campaigning to secure the legislation through the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2004/34/contents">2004 Housing Act</a>. The legislation also introduced other measures to improve fire safety, including the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/housing-health-and-safety-rating-system-hhsrs-guidance">housing health & safety rating system</a>, which required local authorities to take legal action against landlords letting homes with serious hazards.</p>
<p>In 2006, statutory regulations were introduced to guarantee minimum standards within both the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2006/373/contents/made">licensing</a> and <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2006/372/contents/made">management</a> of multiple occupancy-style rental accommodation. Though far from the end point in the fight for safe housing for all, it signalled a major victory for campaigners such as Beacock. In recent years, however, owing to the growing housing crisis in London and other large UK cities, the problem of rogue landlords who are prepared to “game” the licensing regime has re-emerged.</p>
<p>Across the UK’s private rented sector, we see examples of landlords operating even after being refused a licence. Some fail to sign tenancy agreements, evict tenants without legal grounds, and allow unauthorised people to live in licensed properties. Such has been the scale of the problem that in 2019, the government issued <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5cffa8bce5274a3cfa8a4fea/Rogue_Landlord_Enforcement_-_Guidance_for_LAs.pdf">advisory guidance</a> to local authorities to “clamp down on these rogue landlords and force them to improve the condition of their properties, or leave the sector completely”.</p>
<h2>‘A price tag on our lives’</h2>
<p>London has a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3133531">history</a> of housing managed by a small number of unscrupulous private landlords prepared to use illegal and immoral practices to profit from the poor. Perhaps most famously, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/tcbh/article-abstract/12/1/69/1735310">Peter Rachman</a> operated in Notting Hill during the 1950s and ’60s, exploiting and intimidating his tenants so much that the phrase “Rachmanism” entered popular vocabulary. In 2019, his “<a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2019-01-31/debates/AE8030C8-FF1A-4BBF-A9EF-179616F5E6C9/SocialHousing?highlight=%22peter%20rachman%22#contribution-8D6AC161-3887-4907-8A1B-8EB5B5C3094D">inhumane activities</a>” were still being highlighted in a Lord’s debate on social housing.</p>
<p>But nor are local authority landlords exempt from criticism, as the Grenfell disaster exposed. At the time of the fire, the tower block was owned by the Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea, with management services provided by its tenant management organisation (TMO). Many of its residents were tenants of the local authority or a local housing association, while a small number owned the leasehold to their flats or were private renters.</p>
<p>During testimony to the <a href="https://www.grenfelltowerinquiry.org.uk/">Grenfell Tower inquiry</a>, witnesses criticised both the borough and its TMO for ignoring safety concerns raised during the tower block’s refurbishment in 2015-16. <a href="https://assets.grenfelltowerinquiry.org.uk/documents/transcript/Transcript%209%20November%202022.pdf">Residents</a> reported being made to “feel like second-class citizens – a nuisance, troublemakers, who should take what they were given and be grateful”. As one survivor, <a href="https://assets.grenfelltowerinquiry.org.uk/documents/transcript/Transcript%2020%20April%202021.pdf">Emma O’Connor</a>, said in her testimony:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I don’t think it’s fair … that all these corporate companies were allowed to be given the choice to choose what the price tag on our lives should be.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Some local authorities are beginning to tackle the problem through criminal proceedings. In <a href="https://news.camden.gov.uk/first-prosecution-by-camdens-new-rogue-landlord-taskforce/#:%7E:text=Monsoon%20Properties%20Limited%20and%20the,in%20multiple%20occupation%20(HMO)%20and">Camden</a>, a property management company was fined more than £49,000 in 2023 for fire safety breaches at an HMO and added to the Mayor of London’s “<a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/rogue-landlord-checker/3594/nojs?destination=rogue-landlord-checker">rogue landlord database</a>”. In 2020, Coventry City Council obtained a <a href="https://www.local.gov.uk/case-studies/successful-banning-order-against-rogue-landlord">banning order</a> against a landlord who had a “flagrant disregard for housing legislation”, including fire safety measures.</p>
<p>Research commissioned by the UK government into local authority enforcement of housing standards revealed that <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/local-authority-enforcement-in-the-private-rented-sector-headline-report/local-authority-enforcement-in-the-private-rented-sector-headline-report">non-compliance with the law is rife</a> across the private rented sector. Under half of local authorities in England reported that over 90% of notices served for the most serious <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2004/34/part/1#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9Chazard%E2%80%9D%20means%20any%20risk%20of,an%20absence%20of%20maintenance%20or">category-1 hazards</a> had been complied with in 2019-20, while nearly a quarter (23%) reported that fewer than 50% of hazard notices had been complied with.</p>
<p>Much work remains to be done around enforcement by local authorities, to ensure that all landlords meet minimum safety requirements. In the meantime, some appear unconcerned about the risks – and potential consequences – of playing with fire.</p>
<h2>Another avoidable death</h2>
<p>In March 2023, Rahman’s death in the Maddocks House fire exposed once more the problems facing many people who live in a permanent state of precarity, often at the mercy of an exploitative housing market. The flat was licensed for occupancy by three people across two families, yet <a href="https://tarlingwestestate.wordpress.com/2023/04/13/tarling-west-estate-residents-association-report-1-04-2023-on-recovery-ofresidents-of-18-maddocks-house-possessions-after-the-fire-on-friday-17-march-2023/">18 men</a> reportedly occupied the flat on the night of the blaze.</p>
<p>The landlords had converted three rooms into dormitory-like sleeping spaces to pack in as many tenants as possible, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/landlords-of-crowded-london-flat-that-caught-fire-plead-guilty-to-criminal-charges">allegedly earning</a> over £100,000 a year in rent. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-64914885">One survivor</a> described how some of the residents, mostly Bangladeshi citizens, were “sleeping in the kitchen, some sharing beds, some sleeping on the floor” – a significant breach of the licence. There was a single shared toilet and bathroom, and the kitchen was out of bounds for cooking. For this, each tenant paid rent of up to £100 a week.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://tarlingwestestate.wordpress.com/2023/04/13/tarling-west-estate-residents-association-report-1-04-2023-on-recovery-ofresidents-of-18-maddocks-house-possessions-after-the-fire-on-friday-17-march-2023/">survivors</a>, who lost everything including their phones and passports, were housed in emergency accommodation by Tower Hamlets council, which owns the freehold to the property. The council <a href="https://democracy.towerhamlets.gov.uk/mgAi.aspx?ID=141846">passed an urgent motion</a> declaring the fire “an abuse of the most socially and economically vulnerable residents and workers by a greedy, vulturous and predatory class of landlord”.</p>
<p>The landlords, Sofina Begum and her husband Aminur Rahman (no relation to the victim), recently <a href="https://www.towerhamlets.gov.uk/News_events/2023/November/Tower-Hamlets-landlords-plead-guilty-to-overcrowding-charges.aspx">pleaded guilty</a> to a total of nine criminal charges at Thames magistrates court in east London, and are due to be sentenced in January 2024.</p>
<p>Anthony Iles, chair of the tenants and residents association, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/landlords-of-crowded-london-flat-that-caught-fire-plead-guilty-to-criminal-charges">commented</a> that the case provided “some small trickle of justice” and “serves as a warning to other landlords in the borough”. Conditions in Maddocks House were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/apr/23/men-who-escaped-fire-in-crowded-london-flat-face-homelessness">described</a> by one resident as “worse than slums in Bangladesh”.</p>
<p>Yet the men living there, many of whom worked as delivery drivers, restaurant and warehouse workers (some while also studying at university), had been afraid to complain to the council about the conditions because of their fear of being made homeless.</p>
<p>Tower Hamlets council has <a href="https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/resident-groups-rally-to-support-survivors-of-flat-fire-in-east-london-left-facing-homelessness-81294">rehoused those residents</a> “who are entitled to recourse to public funds”. It recently <a href="https://www.towerhamlets.gov.uk/News_events/2023/October/Tower-Hamlets-Council-to-manage-housing-directly-from-November-2023.aspx">resumed responsibility</a> for managing its housing stock, and <a href="https://www.towerhamlets.gov.uk/News_events/2023/November/Tower-Hamlets-landlords-plead-guilty-to-overcrowding-charges.aspx">approved plans</a> to renew an additional licensing scheme for HMOs under its jurisdiction.</p>
<p>However, some of the Maddocks House residents have international student visas, which means they are <a href="https://whitechapellondon.co.uk/shadwell-flat-fire-survivors-council-support-ended/">not entitled</a> to homelessness assistance or housing benefit. They have been forced back into the informal housing sector, the ongoing victims of an affordable housing crisis in which the average private rent in Tower Hamlets has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/apr/23/men-who-escaped-fire-in-crowded-london-flat-face-homelessness">risen</a> 33% since 2021 to £2,560 a month – far in excess of the earnings of these Maddocks House survivors.</p>
<p>Given the shortage of affordable housing in London and other UK cities, HMO-style accommodation remains the most, perhaps the only, practicable option for many people and families. In 2019, <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn00708/">nearly 500,000 properties</a> were officially registered as HMOs in England – although recent reports indicate the <a href="https://propertyindustryeye.com/englands-hmo-stock-continues-on-downward-trend/">market is now retracting</a>, due to the introduction of <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2018/221/made">tighter licensing rules in 2018</a> that extended provisions to cover two-storey HMOs.</p>
<p>But HMOs vary widely in terms of their size, occupancy, building type and amenities, which makes them immensely challenging for local authorities to regulate. These same local authorities suffered <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/local-government-funding-england">major reductions</a> to their funding from central government in the ten years prior to the COVID pandemic, and council leaders <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/26/jeremy-hunt-budget-cuts-chancellor-threat-flagship-councils-england-bankrupt">are warning</a> they are likely to face “a new wave of austerity” during the next parliament, whoever is in power.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4M7Aoj6gtrI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Tower Next Door: Living in the Shadow of Grenfell – a documentary by the Guardian.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fire <em>does</em> discriminate</h2>
<p>Contrary to the popular mantra that fire doesn’t discriminate, the poor and disadvantaged in UK and other societies are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/jul/11/grenfell-tower-tragedy-worldwide-truth-fire-is-an-inequality-issue">disproportionately affected by fire</a> because they are forced to live in unsafe or overcrowded housing.</p>
<p>Over a span of more than 40 years, the fires at Clanricarde Gardens, Gloucester Place, Grenfell Tower and Maddocks House – and many others besides – show us that residents who raise safety concerns with their landlords are too often ignored or dismissed as troublemakers.</p>
<p>The survivors, bereaved and local communities affected by fires have repeatedly called on the government to act more decisively and comprehensively in the interests of residents rather than landlords. In the wake of the Grenfell disaster, they have again spoken out bravely, holding senior ministers to account for their <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/29/grenfell-tower-inquiry-judge-to-meet-residents-and-survivors">pledge</a> that “no stone will be left unturned” in the quest to learn lessons from Grenfell. While their representative bodies continue to fight for justice and safer housing, their legal counsel at the Grenfell inquiry <a href="https://assets.grenfelltowerinquiry.org.uk/documents/transcript/Transcript%207%20November%202022.pdf">warned</a> that, if we allow the lessons from Grenfell to be forgotten, we risk facing “another inquiry, following another disaster … where all the same points are being made”.</p>
<p>The UK government claims its response to Grenfell, via the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-building-safety-act">Building Safety Act</a> (2022), has been to introduce “groundbreaking reforms to give residents and homeowners more rights, powers and protections – so homes across the country are safer”. But this does not extend to large numbers of disadvantaged people and homeless families with children, all struggling to cope in the cost of living crisis.</p>
<p>Some landlords are adept at identifying loopholes in the legislation that enable them to evade their obligations towards tenants. Central government has been slow to close these or equip local authorities with the powers to force greater levels of compliance. There is little in the government’s “landmark” legislation (and related <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/42-million-to-support-delivery-of-building-safety-reforms">safety funding plans</a>) that indicates any more willingness than its predecessors to tackle the problem of rogue landlords within the private rented sector.</p>
<p>As long ago as the 1980s, pioneering campaign organisations like the Campaign for Bedsit Rights (which <a href="https://www.lgcplus.com/archive/shelter-takes-over-campaign-for-bedsit-rights-10-12-1997/">became part of Shelter in 1997</a>) recognised that fire safety is a social equality issue. Forty years and many fires later, it is long overdue that everyone in a position of power recognises this principle – and acts upon it to reduce fire inequality. It is too late for Mizanur Rahman, who died inside Maddocks House, and for the 72 people who lost their lives in Grenfell Tower in 2017. How many more lives must be lost?</p>
<hr>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219688/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shane Ewen received funding from an Arts and Humanities Research Council Standard Open Grant: Forged by Fire: Burns Injury and Identity in Britain, c.1800-2000. He would like to thank Anthony Iles (Tarling West TRA), Deborah Garvie (Shelter), Paul Hampton (Fire Brigades Union) and Rachel Rich (Leeds Beckett University) for their assistance with this article.</span></em></p>Fire is a social equality issue. Amid fresh concerns over rogue landlords and dangerous overcrowding, why have calls for change gone unheeded for so long?Shane Ewen, Professor of History, Leeds Beckett UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193892023-12-18T00:32:19Z2023-12-18T00:32:19ZHousing and the Albanese government: a mid-term report card<p>The Albanese government can justly claim to have reasserted Commonwealth leadership on housing since its election in 2022. Media attention has focused mainly on the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/11/greens-support-labor-housing-australia-future-fund-albanese-government">legislative stoush</a> with the Greens over the Housing Australia Future Fund. But that’s only one element of a <a href="https://www.ppesydney.net/content/uploads/2023/12/4-Pawson.pdf">raft of initiatives</a> from Canberra over this time.</p>
<p>Many Australians have recently felt the impact of <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/rents-continue-to-surge-in-major-capital-cities-adding-to-cost-of-living-pressures/news-story/1e66ad7c7d165d309fdbe39df30a8157">sharply rising rent</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/07/interest-rate-rise-would-see-almost-half-of-australian-mortgage-holders-under-financial-stress#:%7E:text=Those%20on%20a%20typical%20mortgage,the%20cycle%20of%20hikes%20began.">mortgage payments</a> as <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/brief/why-does-australia-have-rental-crisis-and-what-can-be-done-about-it">household numbers</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/07/rba-interest-rates-rise-hike-november-official-cash-rate-announcement-reserve-bank-australia#:%7E:text=The%20RBA%20board%20on%20Tuesday,rate%20rise%20since%20May%202022.">interest rates</a> surged in the post-COVID period. However, several fundamental and enduring <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-15-0780-9">housing problems</a> have been escalating for decades. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>home ownership <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/housing-affordability">becoming less affordable</a></p></li>
<li><p>private rental housing receding <a href="https://www.anglicare.asn.au/publications/2023-rental-affordability-snapshot/">beyond the reach</a> of low-income households</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://cityfutures.ada.unsw.edu.au/documents/689/Waithood_final.pdf">increasingly scarce</a> and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=e856263b-8b5a-4627-8594-329f3aac1aae&subId=746019">deteriorating</a> social housing. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>To seriously confront these challenges, the government will need to expand its initiatives and tackle reforms of taxes and regulations, which it has avoided to date.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-young-australians-most-worried-about-finding-affordable-housing-they-told-us-218426">What are young Australians most worried about? Finding affordable housing, they told us</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Tackling housing on 4 fronts</h2>
<p>The government’s commitments so far can be largely broken down into four policy themes.</p>
<p><strong>1. Direct assistance for low-income groups</strong></p>
<p>The Housing Australia Future Fund is the largest initiative in this area. The goal is to fund <a href="https://blogs.unsw.edu.au/cityfutures/blog/2023/09/how-does-the-haff-add-up-unpacking-labors-10-billion-housing-australia-future-fund/">30,000 new social and affordable homes</a> over five years.</p>
<p>Under the <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/sites/ministers.treasury.gov.au/files/2022-10/national-housing-accord-2022.pdf">National Housing Accord</a>, another 10,000 affordable rental homes are funded over this period. </p>
<p>However, the unmet need for social and affordable housing <a href="https://cityfutures.ada.unsw.edu.au/social-and-affordable-housing-needs-costs-and-subsidy-gaps-by-region/">exceeds 600,000 units</a>, so these targets remain modest.</p>
<p>Also in the direct assistance category is the May budget’s one-off 15% boost to Commonwealth Rent Assistance. While accurately <a href="https://ministers.dss.gov.au/media-releases/12936">claimed</a> as “the largest increase in more than 30 years”, maximum payments remain far below market rents. As economist Bruce Bradbury <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-rent-crisis-is-set-to-spread-heres-the-case-for-doubling-rent-assistance-196810">argued</a>, the increase should have been 100%.</p>
<p>These initiatives are significant contributions to relieving rental stress when compared to the previous decade of federal inaction. However, that is a low bar.</p>
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<p><strong>2. Direct assistance to first-home buyers</strong></p>
<p>This batch of measures includes expansion of the Coalition-established low-deposit mortgage scheme, now branded the <a href="https://www.housingaustralia.gov.au/support-buy-home/first-home-guarantee">First Home Guarantee</a>. Qualifying first-home buyers can secure a home loan with a down-payment of only 5% of property value – rather than the standard 20% deposit.</p>
<p>There’s also the government’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/20/labor-shared-equity-scheme-what-is-it-how-does-it-work-who-is-eligible">Help to Buy</a> proposal. Under this shared-equity model, government takes a 30-40% interest in a dwelling acquired by a qualifying home buyer. The buyer’s home loan and equity contribution are much smaller as a result.</p>
<p>But the government may battle to secure Senate approval for this scheme. The Coalition <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-01/government-takes-aim-labor-election-housing-pitch/101028814">opposes it</a>, saying first-home buyers will dislike the idea of “[having Anthony] Albanese at the kitchen table with you, owning part of your home”. The Greens have <a href="https://login.wwwproxy1.library.unsw.edu.au/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/grens-may-block-labor-scheme-first-home-buyers/docview/2792484570/se-2?accountid=12763">queried</a> the workability of proposed scheme rules. </p>
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<p><strong>3. Boosting housing supply</strong></p>
<p>The main push here has been the <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/sites/ministers.treasury.gov.au/files/2022-10/national-housing-accord-2022.pdf">National Housing Accord</a> agreed with state governments and others in late 2022. Signatories must do their best to enable construction of <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/meeting-national-cabinet-working-together-deliver-better-housing-outcomes">at least 1 million homes</a> – and up to 1.2 million – from 2024 to 2029. This would increase current construction rates by about a third, so it’s a challenging target.</p>
<p>The modest federal investment in social and affordable homes supports the accord aspirations. </p>
<p>More importantly, A$3 billion in new federal funding for the <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/meeting-national-cabinet-working-together-deliver-better-housing-outcomes">New Home Bonus</a> aims to “incentivise states and territories to undertake the reforms necessary to boost housing supply and increase housing affordability”. This approach appears to emulate recent efforts in <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05724/SN05724.pdf">the UK</a> and <a href="https://liberal.ca/our-platform/1-4-million-new-homes/">Canada</a>.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen if this will work in Australia. There is reason to be sceptical about any strategy to make housing more affordable based on the belief that “inadequate” supply is largely due to planning restrictions. The main consideration for private developers and their financial backers is <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/978-1-137-46403-3">expected market conditions</a> when newly built homes are to be sold.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/councils-are-opening-the-door-to-tiny-houses-as-a-quick-affordable-and-green-solution-217267">Councils are opening the door to tiny houses as a quick, affordable and green solution</a>
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<p>If the prime minister is serious about achieving his government’s targets, he may need to consider more direct government involvement in housing production. Much greater social housing investment would be needed in any case to genuinely address the scale of unmet need. He might even contemplate a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-set-for-conference-housing-stoush-as-big-union-demands-super-profits-tax-20230724-p5dquf.html">union-sponsored proposal</a> to use a corporate super-profits tax to fund massively stepped-up social housing construction.</p>
<p>Equally, state and territory governments could look to revive the <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-15-0780-9">state-commissioned build-for-sale programs</a> of the 1950s and 1960s. That is, homes built for sale at cost price on land owned by government or acquired for the purpose under compulsory powers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-deliver-enough-affordable-housing-and-end-homelessness-what-must-a-national-strategy-do-207120">To deliver enough affordable housing and end homelessness, what must a national strategy do?</a>
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<p><strong>4. Institutional reform</strong></p>
<p>Fragmented and inadequate policymaking capacity bears much of the blame for Australia’s weak record on housing in recent decades.</p>
<p>In response, the Albanese government has to its credit set up an expert panel, the <a href="https://nhsac.gov.au/">National Housing Supply and Affordability Council</a>, and a national housing agency, <a href="https://www.housingaustralia.gov.au/">Housing Australia</a>. However, Housing Australia has been designated as purely a delivery agency with no policymaking remit. This seems highly questionable – especially as the housing minister lacks her own department of government.</p>
<p>Even more concerning are <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/flawed-foundations/">indications</a> that the proposed National Housing and Homelessness Plan may <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/labor-offers-new-help-for-renters-and-first-homebuyers-pm-must-aim-higher/">fall far short</a> of providing a fit-for-purpose rationale for the government’s post-2022 initiatives and, more importantly, a meaningful framework for the much more ambitious reforms Australia badly needs.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/homeless-numbers-have-jumped-since-covid-housing-efforts-ended-and-the-problem-is-spreading-beyond-the-big-cities-194624">Homeless numbers have jumped since COVID housing efforts ended – and the problem is spreading beyond the big cities</a>
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<h2>A promising start, but can do better</h2>
<p>In the first half of its term, the Albanese government made progress on almost all its election pledges on housing. It also brought forward other notable initiatives. This activity corresponds quite well with key dimensions of <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-15-0780-9">Australia’s multi-faceted housing challenge</a>.</p>
<p>At the same time, announced measures are somewhat disparate and many are extremely modest alongside the scale of these problems. To make a real difference, they will need to be expanded and extended over a longer time. They must be complemented by tax and regulatory reforms as yet eschewed.</p>
<p>If the measures to date prove to be a down payment on ambitious and purposeful future action, they may come to be seen as significant. If not, policy analysts of the 2030s will deem them of little importance.</p>
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<p><em>This article draws on a fuller <a href="https://www.ppesydney.net/content/uploads/2023/12/4-Pawson.pdf">housing policy paper</a> published in a <a href="https://www.ppesydney.net/labor-in-government-a-new-special-issue-of-jape/">special issue</a> of the Journal of Australian Political Economy along with mid-term assessments of the Albanese government’s performance across a range of other policy areas.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hal Pawson receives research funding from the Australian Research Council, from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, from Queensland Council of Social Service, from the Lord Mayor's Charitable Fund, City of Melbourne, and from Crisis UK. He is also a non-Exec Director at Community Housing Canberra and a part-time unpaid advisor to ACT Senator David Pocock.</span></em></p>The government has made housing a federal policy priority after a decade of neglect. But the scale of the housing crisis means its actions to date are just a start – much more must be done.Hal Pawson, Professor of Housing Research and Policy, and Associate Director, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.