tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/international-climate-action-7977/articlesinternational climate action – The Conversation2023-11-30T17:23:45Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183942023-11-30T17:23:45Z2023-11-30T17:23:45ZWhy renewed China-US cooperation bodes well for climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562544/original/file-20231129-29-sgmrl5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5487%2C3653&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/political-flags-china-united-states-america-2202173405">Melnikov Dmitriy / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The relationship between the US and China is the most important in the world, and it has been unstable and sometimes under extreme stress in recent years. But a recent meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in California may bring new momentum for global climate action.</p>
<p>Climate change is a priority area of cooperation for the two countries, and a key document was released just ahead of the presidents’ meeting. The <a href="https://www.state.gov/sunnylands-statement-on-enhancing-cooperation-to-address-the-climate-crisis/">Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis</a> reaffirms the two countries’ support for climate action and further institutionalises their cooperation.</p>
<p>The leaders of both countries understand that solving the climate crisis requires global collective action – especially from the world’s two largest polluters, who between them account for <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions">44% of the world’s carbon emissions</a>. Even during crisis time in their bilateral relations, the US and China still tried to <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/04/28/climate-weekly-us-china-talks-stall-but-survive/">maintain regular exchanges on climate change</a> thanks to strong personal ties between their climate envoys. </p>
<p>With Israel-Gaza and the long-lasting Ukraine-Russia war both creating problems for US foreign policy, Biden wants to rebuild the relationship with China. At the same time, China eagerly wants to reduce tensions in order to remove trade and investment restrictions <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-us-tensions-how-global-trade-began-splitting-into-two-blocs-188380">imposed by the US</a>. Climate change is a way for the two countries to rebuild trust.</p>
<h2>Strengthening climate cooperation</h2>
<p>The Sunnylands statement notes a working group will be set up to accelerate climate actions. This group was initially planned in 2021, but <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/08/08/us-china-climate-working-group-cancelled-after-pelosis-taiwan-visit/">stalled</a> after senior Democrat Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in summer 2022. Its establishment will provide additional guarantees to continue cooperation on climate change amid possible political turbulence in both countries, especially around next year’s presidential election in the US.</p>
<p>The statement also supports cooperation between cities, provinces and states in China and the US. Several Chinese provinces have already <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2023/1102/What-California-s-climate-diplomacy-with-China-achieves">learned from California’s experiences</a> in order to set up emissions trading programmes of their own, while California has signed agreements with various cities and provinces – including Guangdong province on industrial decarbonisation, and Jiangsu province on offshore wind. Agreements like these can ensure climate action continues when <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/transnational-climate-change-governance/44AC553A1719681F5BD1D8C91B5DD999">cooperation at the national level is interrupted</a>, perhaps due to future political changes.</p>
<h2>Don’t forget methane</h2>
<p>Plans to reduce non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions also represent important progress. Most important of these is methane, which has strong greenhouse effects.</p>
<p>The US has been pushing China to address methane since 2021 – and just a week before the Biden-Xi meeting, China announced its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-unveils-action-plan-reduce-methane-emissions-2023-11-07/">first methane action plan</a>. The Sunnylands statement sent a signal to the rest of the world that the planet’s two largest emitters intend to make more efforts to reduce these emissions. </p>
<h2>Implications for COP28</h2>
<p>The statement also reaffirms the two superpowers’ support for the UN’s official climate processes, including the Paris agreement – the success of which depends on the ambition of each country’s pledge to reduce emissions. Crucially, the two biggest emitters have reaffirmed their determination to be more ambitious when the pledges are next updated in 2025.</p>
<p>The current UN climate conference, COP28 in Dubai, will also conclude the first global “<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2023_09E.pdf">stocktake</a>”, which is likely to find there has not been enough progress towards the goal of limiting warming at 1.5°C. That’s why many <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/eu-wrangles-over-negotiating-stance-cop28-climate-summit-2023-10-16/">countries</a> and other stakeholders – even including <a href="https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/cop28-businesses-urge-governments-to-phase-out-fossil-fuels/">big businesses</a> – have called for a global agreement to phase out fossil fuels to be made at the conference. </p>
<p>The success of this initiative is likely to depend on the political will of China, which – despite already burning the most coal in the world – has <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/12/china-coal-climate-change-carbon-emissions-pledge-plants-apec/">continuously expanded its coal-fired power plants</a>.</p>
<p>While the Sunnylands statement has no explicit mention of ending fossil fuels, it says both countries intend to “sufficiently accelerate renewable energy deployment in their respective economies […] so as to accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation”. As China is also a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-solar-power-global-renewable-energy-leader">global leader in clean technologies</a> with the largest solar and wind capacity in the world, further cooperation between the two countries on renewables is good news.</p>
<p>The two countries also agree that the global stocktake should “send signals with respect to the energy transition”. This implies they may be willing to discuss the phaseout of fossil fuels at COP28, and potentially support an agreement.</p>
<p>Finally, being respectively the largest developing and developed countries in the world, China and the US have also shown commitment to building consensus in <a href="https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/climate-finance-to-be-front-and-center-at-cop28/">contentious negotiations on climate finance</a> – money paid to poorer countries to help them adapt to climate change or cut their own emissions. </p>
<p>On the first day of the conference the establishment of a so-called <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/30/agreement-on-loss-and-damage-deal-expected-on-first-day-of-cop28-talks">loss and damage fund</a> was announced, to help more vulnerable countries cope with the consequences of climate change. This is a good start. This is a good start. However, existing pledges remain insufficient, and funds will still need to be equitably distributed to developing countries impacted by climate change. Cooperation between the two superpowers will be instrumental in building effective and just institutions to deliver that money.</p>
<p>As China and the US have restarted their climate cooperation with strong commitments, the world can raise their expectations for COP28. Global policymakers must seize their last remaining opportunities – and this is a promising start.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yixian Sun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The two superpowers – and super-emitters – recently put out a joint statement on climate change.Yixian Sun, Associate Professor in International Development, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2154162023-10-24T12:23:14Z2023-10-24T12:23:14ZBacklash to the oil CEO leading the UN climate summit overlooks his ambitious agenda for COP28 – and concerns of the Global South<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553511/original/file-20231012-21-7d5266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, CEO of the United Arab Emirates' state oil company, will be leading the COP28 United Nations climate conference.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sultan-al-jaber-chief-executive-of-the-uaes-abu-dhabi-news-photo/1529645349">Francois Walschaerts/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In December 2023, negotiators from countries worldwide will meet in the United Arab Emirates for the next round of <a href="https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetailsIII.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7&chapter=27&Temp=mtdsg3&clang=_en">international climate talks</a>. While the talks are considered essential to securing global agreements needed to avoid dangerous climate change, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-15/climate-talks-ahead-of-cop28-raise-concerns-of-weak-outcome">confidence in the summit, known as COP28, is at a low</a>. One reason is the man in charge.</p>
<p>The UAE set off a firestorm in January 2023 when it announced that Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the CEO of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company – also known as ADNOC – would be the president-designate of the climate summit, giving him a large amount of control over the meeting’s agenda.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/us-eu-lawmakers-want-al-jaber-out-as-cop28-president?leadSource=uverify%20wall">U.S. and European politicians</a> demanded al-Jaber’s resignation. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/65423811-7c7e-4ae5-876d-ffbed29cefcf">claimed</a> that fossil fuel interests had “captured the U.N. process to a disturbing degree, even putting the CEO of one of the largest oil companies in the world in as president of COP28.”</p>
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<img alt="Kerry, in a western business suit, touches Al Jaber's arm as they speak. Al Jaber is in traditional Middle Eastern attire. Both men are tall and about the same height." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">U.S. Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry spoke with
Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber during the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi on Jan. 14, 2023. Kerry was supportive when al-Jaber was chosen to head COP28.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/united-arab-emirates-minister-of-state-and-ceo-of-the-abu-news-photo/1246218348?adppopup=true">Karim Sahib/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Concerns about the role of fossil fuel industries in obstructing pro-climate policies are entirely legitimate, in my view. There is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.809">abundant evidence</a> that the largest fossil fuel companies knew their products would cause climate change decades ago, but deliberately attempted to deny climate science and oppose climate policies.</p>
<p>However, I believe calls to <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2023/09/30/boycott-cop28-holding-a-climate-conference-in-dubai-is-absurd-and-dangerous_6142129_23.html">boycott COP28</a> and ban the region’s choice to lead it are undermining the credibility of United Nations negotiations and are overlooking the potential of the COP28 agenda.</p>
<p>I am a former adviser to the <a href="https://www.unep.org/">U.N. Environment Program </a> and a <a href="https://www.clarku.edu/faculty/profiles/ibrahim-ozdemir/">scholar of environmental ethics</a>. My own concerns about this issue led me to team up with six colleagues from across the Global South to conduct <a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">a detailed comparative analysis</a> of the goals and behavior of the five most recent COP presidencies.</p>
<p>We concluded, to our surprise, that the policy agenda being promoted by the UAE’s COP28 presidency would do much to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. We also found that many criticisms of the UAE’s presidency are unfounded.</p>
<h2>How al-Jaber was chosen</h2>
<p>First, it’s useful to understand how COP presidents are chosen. </p>
<p>Choosing which country hosts a COP summit is managed by a <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/the-big-picture/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences/how-cops-are-organized-questions-and-answers#Host-country-and-presidency">United Nations process</a> that rotates democratically <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/the-big-picture/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences/how-cops-are-organized-questions-and-answers#Host-country-and-presidency">among six regions</a>. The countries in each region consult about who will represent their region, and that country makes a pitch, which is assessed and finalized by the secretariat that runs the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.</p>
<p>For COP28, the Asia-Pacific region, which consists of a diverse mix of developing nations, chose the UAE and al-Jaber.</p>
<h2>Energy concerns of the Global South</h2>
<p>For some Global South nations, the prospect of phasing out fossil fuels – called for by many activist groups and countries headed into COP28 – seems not only daunting, but a <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/312441468197382126/pdf/104866-v1-REVISED-PUBLIC-Main-report.pdf">threat to economic development</a>.</p>
<p>Of the dozens of oil-producing countries in the world, around <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/just-transition-developing-countries-shift-oil-gas">half are middle-income developing countries</a> with economies that are highly vulnerable to volatile oil and gas prices. Studies have suggested that a fast fossil fuel phaseout could cause <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0182-1">trillion-dollar losses</a> related to infrastructure investments in oil-producing countries if they aren’t prepared.</p>
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<p>At the same time, however, many nations of the Global South face <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">disproportionate consequences from climate change</a>, from extreme weather events to rising sea levels that can <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/amid-rising-seas-island-nations-push-for-legal-protection">threaten the very existence</a> of their communities.</p>
<p>Al-Jaber has called phasing down fossil fuels <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/13/phase-down-of-fossil-fuel-inevitable-and-essential-says-cop28-president">“inevitable” and “essential”</a>, but he has said the energy system and the Global South <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/10/world-not-ready-to-switch-off-fossil-fuels-uae-says">aren’t ready for a fast phaseout</a> until renewable energy ramps up and that the summit should <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2496902-uaes-aljaber-says-cop-28-must-focus-on-adaptation">focus on adaptation</a>. That view, while supported by some countries in the Global South, has drawn sharp criticism.</p>
<h2>Al-Jaber, Masdar and ADNOC</h2>
<p>Al-Jaber’s presidency of COP28 has been described by some as an <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/middleeast/cop-28-dubai-greenwashing-climate/index.html">attempt by the UAE to “greenwash”</a> oil and gas expansion plans by ADNOC, one of the largest oil companies in the world.</p>
<p>While I am sympathetic to this concern, my colleagues and I found it to be far too simplistic. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28">Al-Jaber</a> spent the bulk of his career in the renewable energy sector. In 2006, he <a href="https://masdar.ae/en/About-Us/Management/History-and-Legacy">founded and ran</a> the UAE state-owned renewable energy company, Masdar, which he helped to grow into the <a href="https://www.energyglobal.com/wind/07062023/uae-and-egypt-advance-development-of-africas-biggest-wind-farm/">largest renewable operator in Africa</a>.</p>
<p>He was appointed CEO of ADNOC in 2016, in the context of the UAE’s official launch of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12457">a national “post oil strategy</a>.” The previous year, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed delivered a speech to a UAE government summit <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/abu-dhabi-s-journey-towards-celebrating-the-last-barrel-of-oil-gathers-pace-1.737529">declaring</a> that the UAE would celebrate “the last barrel of oil” by mid-century.</p>
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<img alt="Three men standing and talking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber has met with officials in several developing countries, including India’s minister for environment, forest and climate change, Bhupender Yadav, right.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bhupender-yadav-indias-minister-for-environment-forest-and-news-photo/1559090143">R.Satish Babu/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>ADNOC has been heavily criticized for planning to invest US$150 billion in oil and gas expansion capacity this decade. I share these concerns. To stay within the 1.5-degree Celsius (2.7-Fahrenheit) global warming limits adopted under the Paris Agreement, the world may need to <a href="https://climatechangenews.com/2023/09/27/new-iea-net-zero-report-leaves-big-polluters-less-room-to-hide/">cease new fossil fuel investments</a>, as the International Energy Agency has urged, and also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6228">decommission some 40%</a> of already developed fossil fuel reserves. </p>
<p>However, I also believe this must be viewed in a global context when discussing the COP28 presidency: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/12/us-behind-more-than-a-third-of-global-oil-and-gas-expansion-plans-report-finds">Far larger fossil fuel growth plans</a> than the UAE’s are being led by the U.S., Canada, Russia, Iran, China and Brazil. Most fossil fuel financing around the world comes from <a href="https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/2023.04.13_Report_Banking-On-Climate-Chaos-2023.pdf">banks in the U.S., Canada and Japan</a>. And since 2015, European banks have <a href="https://reclaimfinance.org/site/en/2023/04/13/european-banks-are-among-the-biggest-drivers-of-fossil-fuel-expansion/">poured a colossal $1.3 trillion into fossil fuels</a>, including $130 billion in 2022 alone.</p>
<h2>The COP28 agenda</h2>
<p>In our assessment, we found that the UAE is already providing leadership that goes beyond previous COP presidencies.</p>
<p><a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">Our report</a> found that the total value of the renewable energy projects planned by the UAE with various partners this decade adds up to over $300 billion. This is considerably bigger than clean energy investments mobilized by previous COP presidencies, our analysis found.</p>
<p>The COP28 agenda that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/13/what-is-the-uae-cop28-plan-of-climate-action">the UAE is promoting</a> also offers a promising pathway to accelerate a transition away from fossil fuels.</p>
<p>The agenda includes a goal of tripling renewable energy capacity within the next seven years, further driving down costs to <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-05/Impact-on-solar-energy-costs-of-tripling-renewables-capacity-by-2030.pdf?ref=ageoftransformation.org">rapidly outcompete fossil fuels</a>, potentially within <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009">the next 20 years</a>.</p>
<p>It also calls for countries to agree to eliminate fossil fuel production where carbon emissions are not captured by around midcentury, which could fast-track scaling up carbon capture, usage and storage commercially.</p>
<p>And restructuring climate financing to make it low-cost and reduce debt burdens, as the UAE presidency proposes, could finally <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/09/19/cop28-president-unga-transform-climate-finance-bridge-trillion-gap-environment-politics-sultan-al-jaber/">unlock the trillions of dollars</a> desperately needed by the developing world to support its energy transitions while industrializing. Given that lack of financing is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.06.024">the key obstacle to the energy transition in developing countries</a>, COP28’s focus on this is critical.</p>
<p>Certainly, the optics of having an oil CEO lead a climate summit is concerning for anyone who advocates rapid-action phasing down of fossil fuels, and it remains to be seen how dedicated the UAE is to these policies. But I and my co-authors of the report <a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">concluded</a> that if the COP28 summit succeeds in securing landmark agreements on the above issues, it would be a significant step forward in fast-tracking a just transition away from fossil fuels and a considerable improvement on what has been proposed in past COP summits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>İbrahim Özdemir was previously Director General of the Department of Foreign Affairs in the Ministry of National Education in Turkey. He was previously a member of the UNESCO Turkish Commission Board between 2005 and 2010, Turk Felsefe Dernegi (The Turkish Philosophical Association) between 2001 and 2009, and the Turkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosion, for Reforestation and the Protection of Natural Habitats between 2000 and 2004.</span></em></p>An analysis of past UN conference presidencies suggests the 2023 summit’s agenda would do more to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.Ibrahim Ozdemir, Professor of Philosophy, Uskudar University; Visiting Professor, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1840862022-05-31T08:57:22Z2022-05-31T08:57:22ZStockholm+50: Sweden hosts major UN environment conference, yet is losing its own green credentials<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466021/original/file-20220530-18-nh4943.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5945%2C2340&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">S-F / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>You can almost feel the expectations in the air of the city of Stockholm, Sweden. The United Nations has organised a meeting of governments and the international sustainability community on <a href="https://www.stockholm50.global/">June 2 and 3</a> to commemorate 50 years after the historic 1972 <a href="https://www.un.org/en/conferences/environment/stockholm1972">United Nations Conference on the Human Environment</a> that took place in the same city. Governments and others are expected to accelerate implementation of climate and biodiversity commitments, the UN’s sustainable development goals, and support a “green” post-COVID-19 recovery.</p>
<p>Such a major international event is the perfect setting for any host country to present itself to the world as a climate and sustainability champion. Sweden is of course no exception, and will do its best to showcase a notable track record on climate and environmental issues in the past few decades.</p>
<p>But anyone who knows a thing or two about Swedish climate and environmental politics will tell you that this official image of a global sustainability champion has lost some of its green gloss lately. In fact, domestic pressures have built up in the past year and have escalated right before the country hosts Stockholm+50. This presents Sweden with a challenging dilemma: it must be a credible host and role model for other countries at a critical time for climate and sustainability action, at the same time as domestic political tensions seriously undermine that very role.</p>
<h2>‘Build back the same’</h2>
<p>One of these tensions is strongly tied to Stockholm+50’s ambition to help countries “green” post-COVID-19 recovery plans. The at times generous economic stimulus packages following from the pandemic were seen by many sustainability proponents, and even the country’s own independent expert body <a href="https://www.klimatpolitiskaradet.se/arets-granskning/kris-ar-ocksa-en-mojlighet/">Climate Policy Council</a>, as an opportunity to “build back better” through investments in climate innovation and “green” jobs. </p>
<p>But the reality of these economic stimulus packages turned out very differently. An <a href="https://www.klimatpolitiskaradet.se/en/rapport-2021/">independent assessment</a> made by the same council noted recently that only a minority of such investments in 2021 contribute to climate and sustainability ambitions (about 10%). Bluntly put: Sweden did not manage to use this window of opportunity, but instead chose to “build back the same”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466026/original/file-20220530-24-w2c7x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man holds sign saying 'Varning: klimat-katastroph" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466026/original/file-20220530-24-w2c7x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466026/original/file-20220530-24-w2c7x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466026/original/file-20220530-24-w2c7x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466026/original/file-20220530-24-w2c7x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466026/original/file-20220530-24-w2c7x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466026/original/file-20220530-24-w2c7x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466026/original/file-20220530-24-w2c7x8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Warning: climate protester in Stockholm, October 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Liv Oeian / shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>Russia’s war on Ukraine and its resulting increased energy prices in March this year triggered <a href="https://www.svd.se/a/rE1wWR/regeringen-kors-over-om-branslepriser">similar political reactions</a> by Swedish political parties from left to right as they coordinated to mobilise government funds to subsidise the fossil fuel and energy use of households by lowering energy taxes, and <a href="https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2022/03/regeringen-presenterar-atgardspaket-for-att-mota-prisokningar-pa-drivmedel-och-el-till-foljd-av-invasionen-av-ukraina/">even offer direct payments to car owners</a>.</p>
<h2>Cuts to foreign aid</h2>
<p>The war on Ukraine has led to additional political tensions, at least between the Swedish Social Democratic minority government and Swedish civil society. Sweden’s migration costs due to the war on Ukraine have increased in recent months. The government chose to <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/sweden-pulls-1b-in-foreign-aid-for-ukrainian-refugees-at-home-103164">redirect about US$1 billion</a> away from international aid for 2022, to help cover for these increased domestic costs. This has resulted in large cuts in development cooperation programs advancing the sustainable development goals and climate resilience in the world’s most fragile countries. </p>
<p>Such cuts are fully consistent with <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dac/development-assistance-committee/">OECD-countries’ way to measure official development assistance</a>, and Sweden is certainly not alone in using this contested loophole. For example, both <a href="https://unric.org/en/un-secretary-general-worried-about-proposed-cuts-in-norways-aid-budget/">Norway</a> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/22/britain-slashes-humanitarian-aid-by-51-despite-global-food-crisis">UK</a> have announced similar cuts. These all set a dangerous precedent for the future. Wealthy countries will face even tougher discussions with those in the global south in future climate negotiations if they continue to erode <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">an already failing international climate finance regime</a>.</p>
<h2>Climate moves to the margins</h2>
<p>There are, however, much deeper political changes underpinning the Swedish dilemma. As <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1369183X.2020.1853906">Swedish political scientists have noted</a>, the electoral successes of the populist radical right party Sverigedemokraterna (SD) over the past decade is a visible indication of a tectonic shift in Swedish public opinion, and the rise of an additional dimension of political conflict. This dimension is often captured under the acronym <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/73/3/477/5368143">GAL/TAN</a>: green/alternative/libertarian versus traditional/authoritarian/nationalist. </p>
<p>While radical right parties have become increasingly influential in western Europe over the past decades in general, this shift has had at least two notable impacts on Sweden’s role as host for Stockholm+50. First, it has created an increasingly challenging parliamentary context where stable majority governments have become increasingly difficult to form. The result has been both <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/swedish-green-party-quits-ruling-minority-coalition-over-budget-defeat.html">government</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/swedens-centre-party-wont-back-budget-government-heads-toward-first-crisis-2021-11-24/">national budget crises</a> towards the end of 2021 – at the same time as the preparations for Stockholm+50 were taking place in Swedish government offices. </p>
<p>Second, a growing political and media focus on issues that lie close to traditional/authoritarian/nationalist values, such as immigration, law and order, and national security, has effectively made sustainability and climate <a href="https://www.gu.se/nyheter/miljo-och-klimatopinionen-infor-valet">increasingly polarised issues</a> among Swedish voters and in the political debate, just ahead of Stockholm+50 and an election in September this year.</p>
<p>All eyes are on the United Nations, on Stockholm and on Sweden this coming week. Decisive climate and sustainability action will not only require coordinated international action. It also requires that all governments joining Stockholm+50 manage to overcome the Swedish dilemma. Our common future depends on it.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/david-bowie-and-the-birth-of-environmentalism-50-years-on-how-ziggy-stardust-and-the-first-un-climate-summit-changed-our-vision-of-the-future-181033">David Bowie and the birth of environmentalism: 50 years on, how Ziggy Stardust and the first UN climate summit changed our vision of the future</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184086/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victor Galaz received funding from the Swedish Ministry of the Environment for independent research synthesis work related to Stockholm+50. He is also a member of the governing board of Sida (the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency). </span></em></p>Domestic political tensions is undermining the country’s ambitions to act as a global role model.Victor Galaz, Deputy Director and Associate Professor, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1776042022-02-28T11:01:03Z2022-02-28T11:01:03ZTransformational change is coming to how people live on Earth, UN climate adaptation report warns: Which path will humanity choose?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448755/original/file-20220227-32682-1u5rqrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=56%2C211%2C4720%2C3108&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Weather and climate extremes are already here, and communities will have to adapt.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/flooding-in-dhaka-royalty-free-image/544688619">Michael Hall via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Governments have delayed action on climate change for too long, and incremental changes in energy and food production will no longer be enough to create a climate-resilient future, a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">new analysis</a> from scientists around the world warns. </p>
<p>The world is already seeing harmful impacts from climate change, including extreme storms, heat waves and other changes that have pushed some natural and human systems to the limits of their ability to adapt. As temperatures continue to rise, transformational change is coming to how people live on Earth. Countries can either plan their transformations, or they can face the destructive, often chaotic transformations that will be imposed by the changing climate.</p>
<p>I’m one of the authors of the climate impacts and adaptation report, released Feb. 28, 2022, as part of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">Sixth Assessment Report</a>. The increasing alarm in these reports, which review the latest research every six or seven years, echoes what I’ve seen over years of work <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sk6R5OYAAAAJ&hl=en">in international development and climate change</a>.</p>
<h2>Climate change is having damaging effects today</h2>
<p>Global temperatures have risen 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 F) since 1890. This warming has already produced substantial environmental changes. </p>
<p>Heat waves and extreme downpours have become more severe in many areas. These impacts have already contributed to water scarcity and complex food price spikes, and they can exacerbate health risks for vulnerable populations, such as low-income communities that <a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-waves-hit-the-poor-hardest-a-new-study-calculates-the-rising-impact-on-those-least-able-to-adapt-to-the-warming-climate-175224">can’t afford cooling</a> when temperatures rise.</p>
<p>Climate models show <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">these effects will worsen</a> in a warming future as people continue releasing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use, agriculture and other activities, compromising humanity’s ability to adapt.</p>
<p>Where people cannot adapt, lives will be transformed in reactive, expensive ways. For example, research shows that if warming increases beyond 1.5 C (2.7 F) compared to preindustrial times, some small island states will lose much of their area to rising seas. Climate change will transform where their residents live, what they do for a living and indeed the very way they live.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman stands at the edge of a flooded road looking at a home's roof across the water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448744/original/file-20220227-86466-p4itdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448744/original/file-20220227-86466-p4itdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448744/original/file-20220227-86466-p4itdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448744/original/file-20220227-86466-p4itdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448744/original/file-20220227-86466-p4itdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448744/original/file-20220227-86466-p4itdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448744/original/file-20220227-86466-p4itdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Climate change is already contributing to humanitarian disasters, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s new report explains. On the island nation of Kiribati, which is at high risk from sea level rise, the village of Tebunginako had to be relocated.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kiribati-islands-climate-change-the-village-of-tebunginako-news-photo/118361112?adppopup=true">Justin McManus/The AGE/Fairfax Media via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Rising temperatures and increasingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-if-several-of-the-worlds-biggest-food-crops-failed-at-the-same-time-74017">frequent droughts in the breadbaskets</a> of the global food system, such as the American Midwest or Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin, will compromise harvests. In our tightly interconnected global food system, such events create radiating shortages and price spikes across different crops and places.</p>
<p>In the United States, these spikes are generally limited, but can resemble price increases under current inflation. For the most vulnerable Americans, such increases can strain their food security and increase pressure on social safety nets. In less wealthy parts of the world, these spikes can induce profound <a href="https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/FullAssessment.pdf">food crises</a>, <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2012/01/do-high-food-prices-cause-social-unrest/">social unrest</a> and political instability.</p>
<p>The impacts of a warming future will compromise the achievement of societal goals like ending poverty and malnutrition, in the United States and abroad.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-quick-guide-to-climate-change-jargon-what-experts-mean-by-mitigation-carbon-neutral-and-6-other-key-terms-167172">A quick guide to climate change jargon – what experts mean by mitigation, carbon neutral and 6 other key terms</a>
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<h2>People, companies and governments can cut risks</h2>
<p>The world is not helpless in the face of these risks.</p>
<p>If countries, communities and individuals recognize the need for transformation, they can identify what they want to transform and what they want to preserve. They can ask who will be most affected by such transformations, and then plan for and manage these impacts, bringing as many people as possible into a climate resilient future. This does more than secure material safety. It changes people’s relationship with each other and the environment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Dry soil trickles through the fingers of farmer Roland Hild as he demonstrates the dryness of his field in Germany." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448745/original/file-20220227-42643-1fjdu5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448745/original/file-20220227-42643-1fjdu5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448745/original/file-20220227-42643-1fjdu5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448745/original/file-20220227-42643-1fjdu5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448745/original/file-20220227-42643-1fjdu5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448745/original/file-20220227-42643-1fjdu5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448745/original/file-20220227-42643-1fjdu5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">As global temperatures rise, many crops face risks from weather and climate extremes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/dry-soil-trickles-through-the-fingers-of-farmer-roland-hild-news-photo/1210867252?adppopup=true">Thomas Kienzle/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>There are emerging examples of transformational adaptation to climate change that show what is possible.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101965">Australia, farmers who adopted regenerative agriculture</a> practices, which help to store more carbon in the soil, found that the health of their soil increased. This allowed the farmers to buffer their fields against drought and floods. They also became more collaborative and ecologically aware, and they articulated more holistic goals for their farming that went beyond income to well-being and conservation. </p>
<h2>Preservation vs. transformation: A false choice</h2>
<p>The slow global response so far makes it clear that addressing climate change is fundamentally a problem of people and their motivations.</p>
<p>Some politicians and others promote false choices between expensive adaptation and the status quo. But <a href="https://time.com/5348333/republicans-climate-change-carbon-tax/">arguments that mitigating climate change is too expensive</a> obscure the fact that <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-social-cost-of-carbon-2-energy-experts-explain-after-court-ruling-blocks-bidens-changes-176255">people pay for this losing battle</a> against the transformative impacts of climate change all the time. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A chart of CO2 concentrations based on ice core reconstructions and modern observations" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448746/original/file-20220227-32622-1ozugut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448746/original/file-20220227-32622-1ozugut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448746/original/file-20220227-32622-1ozugut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448746/original/file-20220227-32622-1ozugut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448746/original/file-20220227-32622-1ozugut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448746/original/file-20220227-32622-1ozugut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448746/original/file-20220227-32622-1ozugut.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Levels of carbon dioxide, a powerful greenhouse gas that is released by burning fossil fuels and drives global warming, have risen quickly in the atmosphere over the past 70 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/">NOAA</a></span>
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<p>The IPCC report notes that <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">in East Africa</a>, the economic impact of climate change on a single crop, maize, has been estimated at US$1 billion each year. This is far more than these countries or the international community spends on agricultural aid and other support for these farmers. Their production is part of the same global food system that shapes food prices everywhere. It’s one example of how <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-social-cost-of-carbon-2-energy-experts-explain-after-court-ruling-blocks-bidens-changes-176255">humanity is already paying for adaptation</a>, often in indirect ways.</p>
<p>Focusing on the status quo also sidesteps the thorny politics of deciding what aspects of our current lives, societies and economies should be preserved and what can and should be transformed. Shifting from cars to public transportation can improve access jobs and amenities for lower-income populations. At the same time, housing near transportation can be priced out of reach. Building a seawall might protect properties along one part of the coast while shifting erosion to communities with fewer resources. </p>
<p>What countries and communities decide to transform, and how, will depend greatly on who gets to participate in these decisions. Their outcomes, in turn, will have significant implications for justice and equity.</p>
<h2>Reactive approach hides the accumulating costs</h2>
<p>But the status quo isn’t cheap in the long run, and studies show that the harm from more drastic warming would be extensive.</p>
<p>The Urban Climate Change Research Network, an international consortium of scientists, estimates that the <a href="https://uccrn.ei.columbia.edu/arc3.2">current cost of adaptation for urban areas</a> alone is between $64 billion and $80 billion each year. The same assessment found the annual costs of inaction are likely to be 10 times as large by midcentury. The longer countries wait to mitigate climate change, the fewer transformational options they will have.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>The choice is not between expensive transformation and no-cost status quo. The difference lies in how people will pay, how much they pay, and how often they pay. If we do not choose the transformations we want, environmentally imposed transformations lurk very near for some, and eventually for all.</p>
<p>The IPCC assessment offers a stark choice: Does humanity accept this disastrous status quo and the uncertain, unpleasant future it is leading toward, or does it grab the reins and choose a better future?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177604/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edward R. Carr has received funding from the United States Agency for International Development and the National Science Foundation. He is affiliated with the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel of the Global Environment Facility, where his the Panel Member for Climate Change Adaptation. </span></em></p>An author of the report explains the damaging effects climate change is already having and why adaptation is essential.Edward R. Carr, Professor and Director, International Development, Community, and Environment, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1594572021-04-21T15:43:26Z2021-04-21T15:43:26ZQ+A: Joe Biden’s Earth Day summit – what could it achieve for action on climate change?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396292/original/file-20210421-17-1mmyrh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1198%2C630&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/143528404@N04/50559523112/in/photolist-2k2LLKJ-2ieZWHo-2k2GkyL-7PSMC3-2gv9ieB-2gAV5nE-7f6MAn-ch6i4y-2h46wXZ-e3q1ox-ch6i1J-c5HRjf-2gY3Xtc-2h46mCL-2gvUMxt-2k4q5nx-2h46ri2-2gYxP7E-2itqaYD-2h86otr-2gv9Ld7-2if3qdH-2kMRbfP-2ivodQE-2igHz5y-5iQ7ap-2itrmxZ-5vfQh4-2k3y9jv-2k3X7XY-2iafYx8-2h1heYp-2kp99J5-2h88hjr-2h86rUV-2gv9Nfy-2k4o6fK-2gAVCWy-2gAVD2P-8Bi8fj-2gY4zT7-8Bez7c-2kzuPaj-CVSDkD-2igL3MM-2hTaZ4a-2hT9XhW-2hTb31T-2k2Gkta-mHfN3">Jlhervàs/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>To mark the <a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-day-at-50-what-the-environmental-holiday-means-today-136415">first Earth Day</a> on April 22 1970, the then US president, Richard Nixon, planted a tree on the White House lawn. More than five decades later, a much greater task falls to the current occupant of the Oval Office.</p>
<p>Joe Biden has invited 40 world leaders to take part in a two-day virtual gathering that will commence on April 22. With just over six months before countries meet in Glasgow for the UN’s annual climate summit, Biden will be hoping to tease more radical commitments for reducing emissions from his guests and give international negotiations a shot in the arm.</p>
<p>The stakes, as ever, are high. Despite a brief reprieve during the lockdowns in 2020, global carbon emissions are set to come <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/20/carbon-emissions-to-soar-in-2021-by-second-highest-rate-in-history">roaring back in 2021</a> to near their pre-pandemic peak.</p>
<p>So what is the most that can come from the Earth Day summit? And how will we know if it was a success?</p>
<h2>What’s the point of a summit before COP26?</h2>
<p>After four years of the US being effectively absent from climate negotiations, Biden’s summit is clearing the ground for countries to reach stronger targets at the UN’s Conference of the Parties in November 2021, also known as COP26. The summit is meant to send a message that the US is not only <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-us-rejoining-the-paris-climate-accord-matters-at-home-and-abroad-5-scholars-explain-153783">back in the Paris Agreement</a>, but keen to be back at the helm leading international efforts.</p>
<p>An agreement between the then US president Barack Obama and China’s president Xi Jinping in late 2014 broke the political deadlock between developed and developing countries following the diplomatic failure of COP15 in Copenhagen. Their bilateral agreement set the stage for global consensus in 2015, at COP21 in Paris, when all countries agreed to nationally determined contributions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with limiting global temperature rise to 2°C (updated to 1.5°C in 2018). </p>
<p>On his recent visit to China, the special presidential envoy for climate, John Kerry, spoke with the country’s chief climate negotiator, Xie Zhenhua. By meeting Zhenhua prior to the renewal of the Paris Agreement, Kerry and the Biden administration are showing the world that a similar breakthrough is possible at COP26, through cooperation between its two biggest greenhouse gas emitters.</p>
<p>Despite their deep antagonism on issues such as trade and human rights, cooperation between the US and China is intended to set a strong example to other countries in the run up to COP26, particularly the next largest emitters who have yet to set more ambitious targets for reducing emissions.</p>
<h2>What might a good outcome from the summit look like?</h2>
<p>The first good outcome arrived early. Following pressure from scientists and environmental groups, Biden committed the US to a 2030 target of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-government-and-politics-environment-and-nature-business-climate-8b27e89270de7cb03f2e61f23d0ba4b9">50% compared to 2005 levels</a> on the eve of the summit – more than twice as ambitious as <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/11/us-china-joint-announcement-climate-change">Obama’s target of 28% in 2014</a>.</p>
<p>Following the terms of <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-china-joint-statement-addressing-the-climate-crisis">the recent agreement</a> between Kerry and Zhenhua, the US might coax Jinping to publicly confirm his pledge of September 2020 that China will achieve carbon neutrality “before 2060” and reach “peak carbon emissions by 2030”. </p>
<p>Another good outcome from the summit would be for the US and Chinese leadership to cooperate on measures to achieve their updated targets during the next few years. The next largest emitters, India and Russia, could choose to follow suit and submit updated targets for the next decade.</p>
<p>Finally, the countries with the lowest emissions which have been invited to the summit, including Bangladesh and an array of small island states, could gain a more concrete sense of the resources that bigger emitters are willing to commit to help them adapt to climate change. The four outcomes, together, would certainly help pave the way for COP26 to achieve its climate ambition in the autumn.</p>
<h2>What are the obstacles to that?</h2>
<p>Leading by example can backfire. Much has happened in international and domestic politics since 2014. Many countries will be wary of diplomatic moves by the US in the short term. After all, what happens to these promises after the 2022 Congressional elections when Republicans may regain Congress? Several countries from the Global South will have plenty of their own reasons to be suspicious of the US in a global leadership role. </p>
<p>Past resistance to the ambitions of the US (as at COP15) could reemerge despite the increasing threat of climate catastrophe, reversing the virtuous circle of diplomatic peer rivalry among states. This summit constitutes a leap of faith on the part of its host and an ambivalent wager on the part of its guests. The summit will decide the direction of that wager.</p>
<h2>Which are the countries to watch and why?</h2>
<p>There are four sets of countries to watch during the summit. </p>
<p>First, the US and China – their ambition will hopefully spur the next biggest emitters, the EU, India and Russia. The response of the last two will be particularly interesting – will they agree to hop on the bandwagon? Third, countries such as Australia, Canada, Japan and South Korea, which all have a stake in the climate leadership of the US due to the nature of their relationships with China, but have not yet updated their targets.</p>
<p>Finally, those countries most vulnerable to the near-term effects of climate change, such as Bangladesh, Jamaica and Kenya. Will they sign off on any of the summit’s supposed achievements?</p>
<h2>What can Biden’s first three months tell us about his climate plan?</h2>
<p>The Biden administration’s approach – his cabinet appointments overall, the stimulus packages, the cross-departmental consultations – is serious, comprehensive and integrated. As I and a colleague <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-joe-biden-could-ride-a-wave-of-international-momentum-to-break-deadlock-in-us-149121">recently suggested</a>, the US president’s international commitments to climate are critical to the success of his domestic agenda. That’s another major reason for holding this summit now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159457/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Beardsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plus how to interpret the outcome of the pre-COP26 summit.Richard Beardsworth, Professor of International Politics, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1491212020-11-10T16:12:57Z2020-11-10T16:12:57ZClimate change: Joe Biden could ride a wave of international momentum to break deadlock in US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368614/original/file-20201110-21-n7b2k7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C770%2C5202%2C2686&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/philadelphia-pa-usa-may-18-2019-1414086479">Jana Shea/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Joe Biden’s presidency is likely to be dominated by “the three Cs”: COVID-19, China and climate change. Each one of these behemoths could make or break him.</p>
<p>Despite wildfires and hurricanes, this <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-voters/">was not</a> the long-awaited <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-win-a-climate-election-parties-need-ambition-not-compromise-with-the-fossil-fuel-industry-126862">climate election</a>. Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris campaigned on the promise of a two trillion dollar investment over the next four years. This aims to put the US on course to a carbon-free electricity sector by 2035 and carbon neutrality – meaning, the country’s net carbon emissions would reach zero – by 2050. <a href="https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/">Their climate plan</a> linked aggressive emissions reductions to social and environmental justice measures <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/12/climate/kamala-harris-environmental-justice.html">beyond</a> compensation for workers and communities embedded in high-carbon industries like coal mining. It was forged in collaboration with the Bernie Sanders campaign and supporters of a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/21/climate/green-new-deal-questions-answers.html">Green New Deal</a>.</p>
<p>The bad news is that Biden’s ability to implement such a transformative domestic agenda appears to be severely limited. Any big spending plans are likely to be stymied by the Senate which, even following <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/we-are-stunned-two-georgia-races-will-decide-which-party-n1246962">run-off races in January</a>, can at best end up a 50-50 partisan split, with Harris as the tiebreaker. Even “moderate” Republicans <a href="https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1325446106118041602?s=20">like Mitt Romney</a> have pledged to “make sure that we conservatives keep on fighting to make sure we don’t have a Green New Deal [and] we don’t get rid of gas and coal and oil”.</p>
<p>But if Biden can link action on climate to economic regeneration, jobs, environmental justice, and a proactive foreign policy with both China and Europe, he could yet fulfil both his domestic and international agendas.</p>
<h2>Rising climate ambitions</h2>
<p>While Trump was busy pulling out of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/paris-climate-accord-39245">Paris climate accord</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-of-barack-obamas-legacy-has-donald-trump-rolled-back-145663">rolling back Obama’s environmental regulations</a>, global momentum on climate change built up a considerable head of steam. </p>
<p>In September 2020, <a href="https://www.edie.net/news/11/-We-can-do-it----EU-chief-announces-55--emissions-reduction-target-for-2030/">the EU ratcheted up</a> its goal from 40 to at least 55% cuts in emissions by 2030. Shortly after a bilateral meeting in Brussels, China’s president Xi Jinping <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/world/asia/china-climate-change.html">stunned</a> by announcing his country aims to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, with “peak emissions” earlier than 2030. <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/south-korea-follows-japan-and-china-in-carbon-neutral-pledge">Japan and South Korea followed</a> within two days of each other, announcing targets to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The devil will be in the delivery, and “net-zero” opens the door to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-problem-with-net-zero-emissions-targets">indefinitely prolonged emissions</a>, offset by <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%252Fs10584-020-02732-3">risky bets</a> on carbon removal technology being adequate in the future. But the direction of travel is arguably being set.</p>
<p>All this happened despite US sabotage. Biden’s arrival boosts the process significantly, with an election pledge to immediately re-enter the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/paris-agreement-23382">Paris agreement</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/13/op-ed-bidens-plan-to-rally-worlds-democracies-at-2021-summit.html">convene a global summit</a>. Careful coordination with the UK presidency of COP26 will be needed, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-love-is-lost-why-its-time-to-drop-the-romance-from-the-special-relationship-72025">the special relationship</a> is already complicated by Brexit and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/16/us-uk-trade-deal-in-danger-if-good-friday-agreement-jeopardised-democrats-warn">Irish border question</a>.</p>
<h2>Opportunity abroad</h2>
<p>Biden could leverage this international momentum to force a way forward on his domestic agenda. America’s new leader would be able to point to an outside world where two thirds of the global economy and half the world’s carbon emissions are subject to net zero by 2050. He would still need to actively make climate action attractive to the American people, circumventing the opposing Republican Party if he must. He could also go ahead and draw on <a href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/how-a-biden-administration-could-fight-climate-change-w-1845530895">a range of measures</a> that do not require the Senate’s blessing, such as interpreting <a href="https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/summary-clean-air-act">the Clean Air Act</a> to regulate carbon, and he can ally with US states and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop-23-three-ways-cities-are-leading-the-fight-against-climate-change-87277">cities</a> leading on climate mitigation and adaptation.</p>
<p>But the key in the long run would be telling a new story about climate action to sell to the public. It should tie green measures with economic regeneration and social justice, as well as security from <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/">destructive climate impacts</a>. Will it work? A sliver of hope can be found in the fact that Trump <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/10/trump-fracking-energy-climate-election-pennsylvania">campaigned aggressively</a> to scare voters with Democratic plans to act on climate change, phase out coal and limit fracking. But the <a href="https://theconversation.com/bidens-stance-against-fossil-fuels-didnt-turn-away-voters-in-pennsylvania-and-other-key-states-148891">Democrats still won</a> back the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/rust-belt-39378">Rust Belt</a> states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An abandoned factory sits amid overgrown vegetation, with a rusted water tower behind it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368616/original/file-20201110-17-lkx9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368616/original/file-20201110-17-lkx9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368616/original/file-20201110-17-lkx9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368616/original/file-20201110-17-lkx9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368616/original/file-20201110-17-lkx9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368616/original/file-20201110-17-lkx9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368616/original/file-20201110-17-lkx9yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Could green jobs reinvigorate the Rust Belt?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/abandoned-factory-60967561">James R. Martin/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Biden could even rearticulate the conflict that Trump has sought with China, nudging it away from outright confrontation towards a competitive partnership in pursuit of a global green recovery. China is bidding for global climate leadership. Over the last decade it enacted <a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-electric-vehicle-ev-industry/">a series of measures</a> to spur an electric and hybrid vehicle revolution. US technology is advanced, but which country ultimately claims the mantle of the world’s electro-superpower still hangs in the balance.</p>
<p>Of course, Biden might never be able to force the Republicans to cooperate on regenerating America and avoiding worst-case warming. He would at least have a clear international lodestar and a narrative to berate them with. The post-COVID stimulus measures Biden will need to agree with Republicans could be the first step on a longer journey towards a green recovery at home and reformed American leadership abroad.</p>
<p>Without a national project of renewal to revive industry and improve communities hurting from decades of neglect, Trump’s politics are almost bound to return. Biden’s ultimate challenge is to get his domestic and international predicaments to play off each other so that he can act effectively on both.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olaf Corry receives funding from The Danish Council for Independent Research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Beardsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hamstrung by a Republican Senate, President-elect Biden will need to look abroad for collaborators on climate action.Richard Beardsworth, Professor of International Politics, University of LeedsOlaf Corry, Professor of Global Security Challenges, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1448702020-08-25T20:07:49Z2020-08-25T20:07:49ZUnder Biden, the US would no longer be a climate pariah – and that leaves Scott Morrison exposed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354497/original/file-20200825-14-dx8yoj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4949%2C3299&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Harnik/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>US Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is campaigning on a platform that puts climate action front and centre. At the Democratic National Convention last week, he outlined a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/joe-biden-unveils-green-jobs-and-infrastructure-plan-during-2020-election.html">US$2 trillion clean energy and infrastructure plan</a>, a commitment to rejoin the Paris climate agreement and a goal of <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/511889-bidens-climate-fight-is-just-beginning">net-zero emissions</a> by 2050. </p>
<p>This contrasts starkly with the agenda of President Donald Trump, which has involved rolling back climate regulations and plans for a US <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/04/politics/trump-climate-change-policy-rollbacks/index.html">withdrawal</a> from the Paris deal. </p>
<p>Clearly, a Biden election win would bring a climate policy sea change in the US – the world’s <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/02/greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-country-sector">second-largest</a> greenhouse gas polluter and a key player in any international agreement. </p>
<p>The Trump presidency has been a godsend for an Australian government apparently uninterested in significant climate action. But with Trump <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls">behind</a> in the polls, a Biden presidency would further expose the Morrison government’s lack of climate ambition – a position that was already fast becoming indefensible.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Donald Trump addressing supporters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354498/original/file-20200825-16-nmpink.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">US President Donald Trump signalled the US’ intention to exit the Paris Agreement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steve Helber/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate policy: Australia in the world</h2>
<p>In international terms, Australia’s emissions reduction commitments are clearly at the lower level of ambition. </p>
<p>It’s pledged a 26% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, and plans to “carry over” carbon credits earned during the Kyoto protocol period to substantially reduce the emissions reduction task under Paris. Even given this modest goal, and the emissions slowdown during the pandemic, it’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australian-emissions-break-paris-targets-even-after-corona-quiet-20200629-p557co.html.">still not certain</a> Australia will meet its target. </p>
<p>But unlike the US, at least Australia can point to its continued commitment to the Paris Agreement itself. And the Morrison government’s claim that Australia’s emission reduction will <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-answer-the-argument-that-australias-emissions-are-too-small-to-make-a-difference-118825">have little</a> global impact is easier to make when a major emitter is refusing to take substantive climate action.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-dioxide-levels-over-australia-rose-even-after-covid-19-forced-global-emissions-down-heres-why-144119">Carbon dioxide levels over Australia rose even after COVID-19 forced global emissions down. Here's why</a>
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<p>But that state of play will change under a Biden presidency. Importantly, the new administration will likely use its re-entry to the global climate action “tent” to push other countries to increase their ambition. </p>
<p>This would put pressure on Australia ahead of COP26 – the next round of United Nations climate talks in Glasgow, in November 2021. The central focus of these talks – postponed from 2020 – will be new national commitments on emissions reduction. </p>
<p>Under the terms of the Paris Agreement, countries have to ratchet up their commitments every five years. So far, there is no indication Australia will comply but ahead of the next COP, host nation the UK will be <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pressure-builds-on-australia-despite-delay-to-international-climate-talks-20200807-p55jgu.html">among a group of nations</a> pushing the Morrison government to go harder. Under Biden, the US would likely join the chorus.</p>
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<img alt="Scott Morrison holding a lump of coal in Parliament" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354500/original/file-20200825-22-65meql.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Scott Morrison is a vocal supporter of Australia’s coal industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Pressure from all directions</h2>
<p>Even without a Biden presidency, other forces are making Australia’s climate position less tenable. </p>
<p>Pressure from Australia’s near neighbours has been significant. At the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum, the Morrison government was roundly chastised for its climate inaction – an issue central to the concerns of Pacific island states. Indeed, it seems clear Australia’s climate policy is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/16/revealed-fierce-pacific-forum-meeting-almost-collapsed-over-climate-crisis">undermining</a> the Morrison government’s so-called Pacific step up, making effective engagement with the region much more challenging.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-farmers-want-more-climate-action-and-theyre-starting-in-their-own-huge-backyards-144792">Australia's farmers want more climate action – and they’re starting in their own (huge) backyards</a>
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<p>At home, the devastating effects of the last bushfire season brought Australian climate action into sharp focus. <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/climate-change-security-and-australian-bushfires">Under climate change</a>, natural disasters such as bushfires will become more frequent and severe. </p>
<p>In 2019, Australians identified climate change as the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australians-rate-climate-change-a-bigger-threat-than-terrorism">biggest threat</a> to our vital national interests. The 2020 Lowy Poll saw a <a href="https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/charts/attitudes-to-global-warming">slight decline</a> in concern for climate change as the effects of the coronavirus took hold, but support for strong action was still well above 50%.</p>
<p>The National Farmers Federation, historically a relatively conservative voice on climate policy, last week <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-farmers-want-more-climate-action-and-theyre-starting-in-their-own-huge-backyards-144792">called for</a> Australia to commit to the same target as Biden – net-zero emissions by 2050. </p>
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<img alt="Cows lined up against a fence" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=342&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354502/original/file-20200825-22-166e5nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The National Farmers Federation wants Australia’s economy to transition to net-zero emissions by 2050.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>This target is also a feature of the federal opposition’s position on climate policy, together with a 40% emissions reduction by 2030. Current <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/12/joel-fitzgibbon-blasted-by-mark-butler-for-backing-gas-led-covid-recovery-plan">Labor infighting</a> over the policy after its 2019 election loss casts some doubt on that commitment. But the party’s climate change spokesman Mark Butler, and others in Labor pushing Australia to do more, will surely be empowered by the dynamics noted above. </p>
<p>If the case for emissions reduction needed strengthening further, a <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org.au/research/lethal-power-how-coal-is-killing-people-in-australia/">Greenpeace report</a> released on Monday, reviewed by scientists, found pollution from Australia’s 22 coal-fired power stations is responsible for 800 premature deaths each year.</p>
<p>Added to this, research <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/03/more-coal-power-generation-closed-than-opened-around-the-world-this-year-research-finds">has found</a> more coal power generation closed than opened around the world this year. And the International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/30/covid-19-crisis-demand-fossil-fuels-iea-renewable-electricity">says</a> renewable electricity may be the only energy source to withstand the COVID-19 demand shock.</p>
<p>Combined with the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/24/australian-power-prices-forecast-to-fall-by-7-by-2022-as-cost-of-renewables-drops">falling cost</a> of renewables technology, the Morrison government’s dogged support for the fossil fuel industry is increasingly unjustifiable.</p>
<h2>No silver bullet</h2>
<p>A Biden presidency won’t be a silver bullet for Australian climate policy. The Morrison government has shown itself willing to shrug off <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/australia-climate-carry-over-credits-slammed-cop25/11793818">international condemnation</a> and view climate action primarily through the lens of mining exports and electricity prices. And for that, they’ve arguably been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-20/what-happened-to-the-climate-change-vote/11128128">rewarded at the ballot box</a>. </p>
<p>But domestic and international pressure for Australia to do more is increasing. A Biden election victory would certainly make it that bit harder for Australia to keep its head stuck in the sand. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-farmers-want-more-climate-action-and-theyre-starting-in-their-own-huge-backyards-144792">Australia's farmers want more climate action – and they’re starting in their own (huge) backyards</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144870/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt McDonald has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the UK's Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>The Trump presidency has been a godsend for an Australian government apparently uninterested in significant climate action. But with Trump well behind in the polls, that’s set to change.Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1240602019-09-24T15:39:23Z2019-09-24T15:39:23ZUN Climate Action Summit missed a key ingredient: climate action<p>A summer of <a href="https://theconversation.com/extinction-rebellion-im-an-academic-embracing-direct-action-to-stop-climate-change-107037">civil unrest</a>. A global climate strike bringing <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-stand-with-the-climate-striking-students-its-time-to-create-a-new-economy-123893">millions of people</a> to the streets. A stark warning from scientists that <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49773869?SThisFB=">climate breakdown is accelerating</a>, and that we must <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49773869?SThisFB=">triple our climate ambition</a> at the very least. All of the conditions were there for this year’s <a href="http://www.un.org/en/climatechange/">UN Climate Action Summit</a> to be a turning point in the climate crisis.</p>
<p>But after <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-bet-on-the-un-to-fix-climate-change-its-failed-for-30-years-123308">24 years of inaction</a> by governments on climate breakdown, it’s hard to feel surprised that the moment never arrived. In fact, the summit was an abject failure.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-bet-on-the-un-to-fix-climate-change-its-failed-for-30-years-123308">Don't bet on the UN to fix climate change – it's failed for 30 years</a>
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<p>Almost 80 countries pledged to reach “net zero” – that is, to balance carbon emissions with carbon removal – by 2050. But not only is this number far too little too late given the state of the science, none of the major carbon polluters made any significantly improved commitments.</p>
<p>US President Donald Trump – who previously <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-decision-to-quit-the-paris-agreement-may-be-his-worst-business-deal-yet-78780">pulled the country out of the Paris Agreement</a> – briefly dropped by before moving on to the religious freedom, anti-abortion summit he had pledged to attend. His main contribution was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/sep/24/she-seems-very-happy-trump-appears-to-mock-greta-thunbergs-emotional-speech">to mock Greta Thunberg’s impassioned speech</a> to world leaders at the start of the summit.</p>
<p>You’d have thought that the EU would seize the opportunity to finally announce a unified commitment to net zero by 2050. But it had little more to offer than highlighting that most of its members supported the goal, and offering vague suggestions that it would at some point improve its current commitment of a 40% cut in emissions by 2030. Even this goal is unlikely to get past <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-20/poland-blocks-german-push-to-end-eu-carbon-emissions-by-2050">the veto power of Poland</a>, a significant coal producer determined to defend what it sees as its economic interests.</p>
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<p>China, as the world’s biggest polluter, made no significant pledges nor commitments at the summit. The country did suggest that it would demonstrate <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/china-pledges-impetus-climate-efforts-2020-190924030719252.html">“the highest possible ambition”</a> when reviewing its climate commitments next year. But it argued that the US and the EU needed to lead on making significant reductions because of their historical responsibility for emissions. China also suggested it would use its massive Belt and Road initiative – aimed at building infrastructure networks across the globe – to tackle climate change, despite the project being linked to a <a href="https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/11509-Belt-and-Road-countries-will-make-or-break-the-Paris-Agreemen">massive expansion in carbon emissions</a>.</p>
<p>This lack of concrete action by those most responsible for our planetary predicament was starkly contrasted by commitments from countries at the other end of the spectrum. The world’s “least developed countries” (LDCs) said that all 47 of its members would commit to net zero emissions by 2050, despite being least responsible for carbon emissions, and often still suffering the legacies of <a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-day-colonialisms-role-in-the-overexploitation-of-natural-resources-113995">colonialism</a>, slavery, and <a href="https://ips-dc.org/structural_adjustment_programs/">structural adjustment programmes</a> – that is, enforced privatisation of major industries and programmes of austerity – inflicted by the world’s wealthiest nations.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/not-convinced-on-the-need-for-urgent-climate-action-heres-what-happens-to-our-planet-between-1-5-c-and-2-c-of-global-warming-123817">Not convinced on the need for urgent climate action? Here's what happens to our planet between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming</a>
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<p>But despite unprecedented strikes, protests and scientific warnings, most countries, cities and companies did not unite behind UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ call for a collective commitment to net zero by 2050.</p>
<p>Worse still, there was a near complete absence of commitment to immediate action. To have a reasonable chance of limit global heating to 1.5°C – a level above which the effects of climate breakdown become <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-convinced-on-the-need-for-urgent-climate-action-heres-what-happens-to-our-planet-between-1-5-c-and-2-c-of-global-warming-123817">dramatically more severe</a> – we need to cut emissions by <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2010.0290">between 10 and 20% per year</a> at the very least, starting in a couple of years at the latest. Were those wealthy countries most responsible for climate change to take on a fair, increased share of reductions, they would need to cut their carbon footprint by <a href="https://theconversation.com/2050-is-too-late-we-must-drastically-cut-emissions-much-sooner-121512">24% a year</a>. This amounts to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/2050-is-too-late-we-must-drastically-cut-emissions-much-sooner-121512">75% cut in the next five years</a> for countries such as the UK.</p>
<p>To kickstart this process, Guterres wanted world leaders to tackle subsidies for fossil fuels, implement taxes on carbon, and end new coal power beyond 2020. This did not happen. India, China and Turkey are all still planning to expand coal power well beyond 2020. Fossil fuel subsidies are <a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuel-subsidies-reach-us-87-billion-in-eu-countries-and-theyre-growing-123733">still growing</a> – and <a href="https://www.rigzone.com/news/us_oil_production_hits_new_all_time_high-25-jun-2019-159151-article/">so is production</a>. New carbon taxes are nowhere to be seen.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/2050-is-too-late-we-must-drastically-cut-emissions-much-sooner-121512">2050 is too late – we must drastically cut emissions much sooner</a>
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<p>Even countries with net-zero pledges in line with the UN’s 2050 call are nowhere near on track to realise them. The UK, for example, is forging ahead with plans for a <a href="https://theconversation.com/heathrows-third-runway-is-expensive-polluting-and-unequal-why-the-poor-will-lose-out-98781">third runway at Heathrow</a>, supporting fracking and <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/04/25/town-needs-self-respect-new-coal-mine-open-uk/">opening coal mines</a>.</p>
<p>As it stands, we’re still on track for <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46384067">a catastrophic 3°C to 4°C of global heating by 2100</a>. And after 24 years of abject failure, it’s clear that if there is any chance of halting global heating, it won’t be enough to just take to the streets. People will have to take matters into their own hands, and find new ways to bring about a just transition to a zero-carbon future – despite the efforts of their governments.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1124060">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124060/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Beuret does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Guterres wanted world leaders to tackle subsidies for fossil fuels, implement taxes on carbon, and end new coal power beyond 2020. None of this happened.Nicholas Beuret, Lecturer in Management and Marketing, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1238172019-09-24T13:31:09Z2019-09-24T13:31:09ZNot convinced on the need for urgent climate action? Here’s what happens to our planet between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming<p>Many numbers are bandied around in climate emergency discussions. Of them, 1.5°C is perhaps the most important. At the Paris Agreement in 2015, governments agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and to aim for 1.5°C. By 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the UN body tasked with relaying the science of climate breakdown to the world – had made worryingly clear in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-1-5-report-heres-what-the-climate-science-says-104592">special report</a> how much graver the consequences of the higher number would be.</p>
<p>Together with the University of Queensland’s Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and colleagues around the world, we’ve explored in <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aaw6974">newly published work</a> just how much sticking to 1.5°C matters.</p>
<p>Climate breakdown is already harming livelihoods, cities and ecosystems. From heatwaves and droughts to cyclones and floods, devastating <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/SREX_FD_SPM_final-2.pdf">extreme weather events</a> are more frequent, more intense and more unpredictable than they would be in the absence of global heating. Warming and acidifying oceans are causing severe coral bleaching <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6371/80">to occur twice as often</a> as in 1980, leaving many unable to recover.</p>
<p>Shrinking habitats are increasingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/polar-bear-invasion-how-climate-change-is-making-human-wildlife-conflicts-worse-111654">forcing wildlife into conflict with human settlements</a>. Increasing wildfires are <a href="https://theconversation.com/increasing-wildfires-threaten-to-turn-northern-hemispheres-boreal-forests-from-vital-carbon-stores-into-climate-heaters-122069">damaging vital carbon stores</a> in North America and Siberia, while the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/02/arctic-spring-is-starting-16-days-earlier-than-a-decade-ago-study-shows">advance of spring</a> is throwing species who depend on each other out of sync. </p>
<p>The more we destabilise our climate, the greater the risk to human societies and ecosystems. Even at 1.5°C of global heating, tough times are in store for the living planet. But the space between 1.5°C and 2°C of heating is a crucial battleground, within which risks to humanity and ecosystems amplify rapidly.</p>
<h2>Climate battleground</h2>
<p>At 1.5°C of warming, about one in twenty insect and vertebrate species will disappear from half of the area they currently inhabit, as will around one in ten plants. At 2°C, this proportion doubles for plants and vertebrates. For insects, it triples.</p>
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<span class="caption">A great many risks amplify between 1.5 and 2 degrees of warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Chapter3_Low_Res.pdf">Hoegh-Guldberg, Jacob, Taylor/IPCC</a></span>
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<p>Such high levels of species loss will put many ecosystems across the world at <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018/meta">risk of collapse</a>. We rely on healthy ecosystems to pollinate crops, maintain fertile soil, prevent floods, purify water, and much more. Conserving them is essential for human survival and prosperity.</p>
<p>Between 1.5°C and 2°C, the number of extremely hot days <a href="http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11706/1/ngeo2595-aop.pdf">increases exponentially</a>. Some parts of the world can also expect less rain and more consecutive dry days, while others will receive more extreme floods. Collectively, this will place agriculture, water levels and human health under severe stress – especially in <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab190">southern African nations</a>, where temperatures will increase faster than the global average. The Mediterranean is another key area at particular risk above 1.5°C of heating, where increased drought will alter flora and fauna in a way <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6311/465.full">without precedent in ten millennia</a>.</p>
<p>At 1.5°C of warming, we could expect to lose between 70% and 90% of our coral reefs. While this would be catastrophic for the millions of ocean creatures and human livelihoods these beautiful ecosystems support, there would still be a chance of recovery in the long term if oceans warm slowly. But at 2°C of warming, we could kill <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/">99% of reefs</a>. To be clear, this is a line that once crossed cannot be easily uncrossed. It could mean the extinction of thousands of species.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-climate-tipping-points-are-and-how-they-could-suddenly-change-our-planet-49405">What climate 'tipping points' are – and how they could suddenly change our planet</a>
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<p>Arctic sea ice has been a constant on our planet for hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of years. If we limit global heating to 1.5°C, there’s a 70% chance of it remaining that way. But at 2°C, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0127-8">some Arctic summers will be ice-free</a>. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap28_FINAL.pdf">Polar bears</a> and other species who depend on frozen sea ice to eat and breed will be left homeless and struggling to survive.</p>
<p>Studies show that at 1.5°C, we could expect <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017EF000732">one metre of sea-level rise in 2300, with an extra 26cm at 2°C</a>. However, between these two levels of global heating, the risk of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets starting a slow process of decline <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Chapter3_Low_Res.pdf">dramatically increases</a>. For the Greenland sheet, this is likeliest to happen at <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1449">1.6°C</a>, with the Antarctic ice sheet’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-climate-tipping-points-are-and-how-they-could-suddenly-change-our-planet-49405">tipping point</a> hovering <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0305-8">not far above</a> this mark.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293643/original/file-20190923-54790-n9m2yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/293643/original/file-20190923-54790-n9m2yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293643/original/file-20190923-54790-n9m2yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293643/original/file-20190923-54790-n9m2yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293643/original/file-20190923-54790-n9m2yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293643/original/file-20190923-54790-n9m2yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/293643/original/file-20190923-54790-n9m2yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Polar bears depend on Arctic sea ice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/high-angle-mother-polar-bear-cub-155217797?src=o0q_shN6p3JsMU5MT1d9qg-1-12">FloridaStock/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>If these ice sheets melt, seas could rise by <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Chapter3_Low_Res.pdf">up to two metres over the next two centuries</a>. These rises could lead to <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017EF000738">millions more people being exposed to flooding each year</a>. Many of those living in coastal cities, <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2016.0448">deltas, or small islands</a> will be faced with little option but to build upwards or relocate.</p>
<h2>Way off track</h2>
<p>The impacts of climate breakdown are accelerating. The planet has warmed by <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14828-5">1.1°C since 1850-79</a>, but 0.2°C of this warming happened <a href="http://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/Five_year_report_2015-2019_0.pdf?4M6Z45W4mlGplwRxbJnQrgi08Ssq5LXe">between 2011 and 2015 alone</a>. The last four years <a href="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/daf3c1527c528609c379f3c08/files/82234023-0318-408a-9905-5f84bbb04eee/Climate_Statement_2018.pdf">were the warmest in the global temperature record</a>.</p>
<p>Despite knowing all the above, many country-level commitments and action are <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/">nowhere near enough</a> to limit warming to 2°C, let alone 1.5°C. We’re heading for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/23/countries-must-triple-climate-emissions-targets-to-limit-global-heating-to-2c">2.9°C to 3.4°C of warming</a>. By this point, many dangerous <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-climate-tipping-points-are-and-how-they-could-suddenly-change-our-planet-49405">tipping points</a> could be crossed, leading to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Chapter3_Low_Res.pdf">rainforest die-back, deadly heatwaves, and significant sea-level rise</a>. Half of all insect and plant species are projected to disappear from <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6390/791.full">more than half of the area they currently inhabit</a>, potentially causing widespread ecosystem collapse and threatening organised human civilisation itself.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-every-government-needs-to-do-right-now-to-tackle-the-climate-emergency-123344">Five things every government needs to do right now to tackle the climate emergency</a>
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<p>Limiting warming to 1.5°C will <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/">save the global economy trillions of dollars</a> in the long run, even accounting for the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/">seemingly gargantuan cost</a> of transitioning our energy systems. But this is more than just an economic or academic issue – its a matter of life and death for millions of humans and animal species, and a severe threat to the well-being of billions.</p>
<p>Tackling climate breakdown is perhaps the tallest order humanity has ever faced, and there is no simple solution. The only way forward is accepting that we must fundamentally change the way we live our lives. It won’t be an easy transition, but there is no alternative if we are to preserve the well-being of humans, wildlife, and ecosystems. The coming year is vital, and there’s too much at stake not to act now.</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1123817">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123817/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Warren receives funding from Natural Environment Research Council, the European Commission, and the UK Department of Business and Industrial Strategy. She was a lead author in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sally Brown presently receives funding from funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/S016651/1). She previously received relevant funding (on the impacts of a rise in 1.5°C in temperatures) from Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P01495X/1) and similar research projects, and was a lead author in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C.</span></em></p>Nations are signed up to limit global heating to well below 2°C, and to aim for 1.5°C. Limiting warming to the latter matters - the future of humanity and the living world is at stake.Rachel Warren, Professor of Global Change, University of East AngliaSally Brown, Senior Research Fellow, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1085462019-01-10T11:06:55Z2019-01-10T11:06:55ZClimate change: focusing on how individuals can help is very convenient for corporations<p>What can be done to limit global warming to 1.5°C? A quick internet search offers a deluge of <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/08/world/ipcc-climate-change-consumer-actions-intl/index.html">advice</a> on how individuals can change their behaviour. Take public transport instead of the car or, for longer journeys, the train rather than fly. Eat less meat and more vegetables, pulses and grains, and don’t forget to turn off the light when leaving a room or the water when shampooing. The implication here is that the impetus for addressing climate change is on individual consumers.</p>
<p>But can and should it really be the responsibility of individuals to limit global warming? On the face of it, we all contribute to global warming through the cumulative impact of our actions. </p>
<p>By changing consumption patterns on a large scale we might be able to <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/10/12/17967738/climate-change-consumer-choices-green-renewable-energy">influence </a> companies to change their production patterns to more sustainable methods. Some experts have argued that everyone (<a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Climate_Matters_Ethics_in_a_Warming_Worl.html?id=RjrYYEk8GYQC&redir_esc=y">or at least those who can afford it</a>) has a responsibility to limit global warming, even if each <a href="https://sites.duke.edu/wsa/papers/files/2011/05/wsa-itsnotmyfault2005.pdf">individual action is insufficient</a> in itself to make a difference. </p>
<p>Yet there are at least two reasons why making it the duty of individuals to limit global warming is wrong.</p>
<h2>Individuals are statistically blameless</h2>
<p>Climate change is a planetary-scale threat and, as such, requires planetary-scale reforms that can only be implemented by the world’s governments. Individuals can at most be responsible for their own behaviour, but governments have the power to implement legislation that compels industries and individuals to act sustainably.</p>
<p>Although the power of consumers is strong, it pales in comparison to that of <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/transformation/jeremy-lent/five-ways-to-curb-power-of-corporations">international corporations</a> and only governments have the power to keep these interests in check.</p>
<p>Usually, we regard governments as having a duty to protect citizens. So why is it that we allow them to skirt these responsibilities just because it is more convenient to encourage individual action? Asking individuals to bear the burden of global warming shifts the responsibilities from those who are meant to protect to those who are meant to be protected. We need to hold governments to their responsibilities first and foremost.</p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://b8f65cb373b1b7b15feb-c70d8ead6ced550b4d987d7c03fcdd1d.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/cms/reports/documents/000/002/327/original/Carbon-Majors-Report-2017.pdf?1499691240">report</a> found that just 100 companies are responsible for 71% of global emissions since 1988. Incredibly, a mere 25 corporations and state-owned entities were responsible for more than half of global industrial emissions in that same period.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253191/original/file-20190110-32130-110k0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253191/original/file-20190110-32130-110k0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253191/original/file-20190110-32130-110k0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253191/original/file-20190110-32130-110k0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253191/original/file-20190110-32130-110k0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253191/original/file-20190110-32130-110k0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253191/original/file-20190110-32130-110k0ar.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Powerful industries are responsible for most of climate change and should carry most of the responsibility for tackling it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pab-sea-oil-production-platform-sakhalin-374547649?src=nMlT9Kx_X5eI1-b5upcG2w-1-10">Lastdjedai/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Most of these are coal and oil producing companies and include <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/10/100-fossil-fuel-companies-investors-responsible-71-global-emissions-cdp-study-climate-change">ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron</a>, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2018/08/01/here-are-the-companies-most-responsible-for-global-warming-study">Gazprom, and the Saudi Arabian Oil Company</a>. China leads the pack on the international stage with 14.3% of global greenhouse gas emissions due to its coal production and consumption. </p>
<p>If the fossil fuel industry and high polluting countries are not forced to change, we will be on course to increase global average temperatures by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/10/100-fossil-fuel-companies-investors-responsible-71-global-emissions-cdp-study-climate-change">4°C by the end of the century</a>.</p>
<p>If just a few companies and countries are responsible for so much of global greenhouse gas emissions, then why is our first response to blame individuals for their consumption patterns? It shouldn’t be – businesses and governments need to take responsibility for curbing industrial emissions. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-action-must-now-focus-on-the-global-rich-and-their-corporations-108943">Climate action must now focus on the global rich and their corporations</a>
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<h2>Governments and industries should lead</h2>
<p>Rather than rely on appeals to individual virtue, what can be done to hold governments and industries accountable? </p>
<p>Governments have the power to enact legislation which could regulate industries to remain within sustainable emission limits and adhere to environmental protection standards. Companies should be compelled to purchase emissions rights – the profits from which can be used to aid climate vulnerable communities. </p>
<p>Governments could also make renewable energy generation, from sources such as solar panels and wind turbines, affordable to all consumers through subsidies. <a href="https://www.carbonkiller.org/nl?fbclid=IwAR38Fji0ZOrJMJ5AY9O9gVR9kZJZeir9S40ljur7k0S_jDw7Dj_KPjgKgHg">Affordable and low-carbon mass transportation</a> must replace emission-heavy means of travel, such as planes and cars.</p>
<p>More must also be done by rich countries and powerful industries to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">support and empower poorer countries</a> to mitigate and adapt to climate change.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253105/original/file-20190109-32136-s5gcyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253105/original/file-20190109-32136-s5gcyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253105/original/file-20190109-32136-s5gcyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253105/original/file-20190109-32136-s5gcyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253105/original/file-20190109-32136-s5gcyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253105/original/file-20190109-32136-s5gcyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/253105/original/file-20190109-32136-s5gcyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People in poorer countries deserve solidarity and support, not a smaller share of the blame.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/global-warming-children-boat-on-cracked-563969722?src=OmUfOmV8bx1M85LFcp2B4Q-1-1">Piyaset/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>All of this is not to say that individuals cannot or should not do what they can to change their behaviour where possible. Every little contribution helps, and research shows that <a href="https://www.ce.nl/en/publications/2042/top-ten-in-average-consumer-environmental-footprint-2017-edition?fbclid=IwAR0W3oZ457HfcDWiT5YzhWozSWfXS_Qw9TeSLvN6el9JHXjDDSPaoj2hAhA">limiting meat consumption</a> can be an effective step. The point is that failing to do so should not be considered morally blameworthy. </p>
<p>In particular, individuals living in poorer countries who have contributed almost nothing to climate change deserve the most support and the least guilt. They are neither the primary perpetrators of global warming nor the ones who have the power to enact the structural changes necessary for limiting global warming, which would have to involve holding powerful industries responsible. </p>
<p>While individuals may have a role to play, appealing to individual virtues for addressing climate change is something akin to victim-blaming because it shifts the burden from those who ought to act to those who are most likely to be affected by climate change. A far more just and effective approach would be to hold those who are responsible for climate change accountable for their actions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108546/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morten Fibieger Byskov receives funding from the British Academy.</span></em></p>From eating less meat to foregoing flying, individual obligations make up our understanding of how to fight climate change, letting polluters off the hook and stifling real change.Morten Fibieger Byskov, Postdoctoral Researcher in International Politics, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1088232019-01-09T22:28:35Z2019-01-09T22:28:35ZCareer guidance for kids is our best hope for climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252839/original/file-20190108-32133-ypi3i7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">To empower children means to nurture them as they develop skills to take charge of their lives. Here, Alex Sayers, left, holds the microphone for Azure Faloona, both 12 years old, at a rally held last October in Seattle in support of a high-profile climate change lawsuit.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Elaine Thompson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We all care, at some level, about our planet and for our children. And yet, ample research has proven that <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2815%2960901-1">we are doing a terrible job of guaranteeing a healthy future for either of them</a>.</p>
<p>In my work as an interdisciplinary scholar who has researched children’s rights, the social determinants of child development and the psychology of climate change, I have come to believe we must give more credit to young people for their ability to contribute to society. If we could learn to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03004430.2016.1155567?tab=permissions&scroll=top&">understand communities through the eyes and voices of children</a> our approach to global warming might drastically change. </p>
<p>For this reason, I have designed and led university-exposure experiences for high school students focused on career development and responding to climate change. In each workshop, I have seen students’ energy and pride as they imagine and see themselves impacting our shared future.</p>
<p>Non-governmental organizations such as UNICEF have argued that <a href="https://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/pdf/ccc_final_2014.pdf">children and youth are perhaps the most powerful weapon we have to restore planetary health</a> and yet they are underutilized.</p>
<p>This might be largely because most adults believe young people are unable to contribute to this world in any meaningful way.</p>
<p>Adults rarely think of children as a resource in the fight against climate change. In other words, we disempower children just by believing that their potential is limited. Sadly, as a result, children themselves <a href="http://www.landonpearson.ca/uploads/6/0/1/4/6014680/stm_x_ryerson_2016_report.pdf">think the solution to climate change is in someone else’s hands,</a>typically the government or the private sector.</p>
<p>Loris Malaguzzi, an Italian educator <a href="https://reggioemilia2015.weebly.com/">who pioneered a transformative approach to early childhood education</a>, talks about the concept of the “<a href="https://youtu.be/174pYUcwn7w">Hundred Languages of Children</a>,” meaning they have multiple ways of seeing the world. It is we, the adults, who are limited in our ability to understand. Thus, it is our responsibility to learn their many languages. </p>
<h2>Both vulnerable and competent</h2>
<p>Being able to engage young people more effectively in talking about global warming and giving them a stage for their meaningful contributions might be what we need to successfully address the global challenges climate change brings. </p>
<p>There’s lots we can learn from the field of children’s rights that teaches us how to empower children for significant and long-lasting changes that eventually lead to positive gains for all of us. To do so, however, we must accept one of the basic and fundamental principles at the core of the children’s rights approach: <a href="https://www.unicef.ca/en/policy-advocacy-for-children/about-the-convention-on-the-rights-of-the-child">respect for the young person who is acknowledged to be both vulnerable and competent</a>.</p>
<p>By accepting children’s vulnerabilities we commit to protect and nurture them as they develop skills they need to lead healthy, productive and fulfilling lives. By accepting their competence, we commit to offer children <a href="https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/rp-pr/other-autre/article12/Article12-eng.pdf">age-appropriate opportunities to safely express their views and be taken seriously when making decisions about matters that are important to them</a>. </p>
<p>In other words, to empower children means to nurture them as they develop the skills they need to take charge of their lives.</p>
<h2>Better career guidance</h2>
<p>Career guidance and education may offer us a unique opportunity to empower youth at a critical time in their lives. At the same time, it can prepare tomorrow’s workforce to think more deeply and critically about jobs and the environment, and how these can help restore the health of our planet and contribute to our physical, emotional, psychological and spiritual survival. </p>
<p>However, while <a href="http://www.edu.gov.on.ca/eng/curriculum/secondary/guidance.html">career guidance and education is part of the standard secondary school curriculum</a> across all Canadian provinces, the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/education/innovation-education/34050171.pdf">training teachers receive to become a guidance counsellor in Canada has been judged as insufficient</a> except for in Québec, where <a href="http://iaevg.net/iaevg.org/crc/files/iaevg/Competencies-English.pdf">teacher’s training meets standards for career development</a> that align with requirements of the <a href="http://iaevg.net/">International Association for Educational and Vocational Guidance</a>.</p>
<p>Research shows that in Ontario schools, <a href="https://www.springerprofessional.de/en/becoming-a-guidance-counsellor-in-ontario-formative-influences-f/7016508">guidance counsellors do not receive adequate career development training</a> and they also spend <a href="http://ceric.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Career-Planning-in-Ontario-Grade-10-Students.pdf">only about one-quarter of their time dealing with career counselling (academic issues take up about half their time)</a>.</p>
<p>This evidence points to the fact that career guidance and education in secondary schools may be a missed opportunity. </p>
<p>While teachers’ training is a key consideration for improvements in career guidance and education, the students’ experience could also be improved by making required career courses more personally meaningful. </p>
<p>By approaching this course from a children’s rights perspective the students would be nurtured and supported at a key time in their development when they are making a choice about their future professional lives.</p>
<p>Students would learn about the careers of their own interest, the role that such work would play in the bigger picture of planetary health and they would be counselled to reflect on how their professional choices could make this planet healthier.</p>
<p>We cannot expect that everyone will want to become an environmentalist or an activist, but we can expect that the children of today will want a future for their own children, and therefore they will also want the best for our planet. We only need to show them how the two are connected through the work they will do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108823/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefania Maggi has received funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council for her research on community resilience and early childhood development. </span></em></p>New energy to advocate for planetary health could be unleashed through career guidance that prepares future generations for climate change while inspiring them to envision a meaningful future.Stefania Maggi, Associate Professor, Department of Psychology and Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1021142018-09-27T20:19:44Z2018-09-27T20:19:44ZWill 2018 be the year of climate action? Victorian London’s ‘Great Stink’ sewer crisis might tell us<p>In the late 19th century, the irrepressible Mark Twain is reputed to have <a href="https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/04/23/everybody-talks-about-the-weather/">said in a speech</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Everybody talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He’s said to have borrowed that quote from a friend, but if Twain were alive today he would no doubt have more to say on the subject. In a time when we are becoming increasingly accustomed to extremes in the climate system, the events of this year have risen above the background noise of political turmoil to dominate the global headlines. </p>
<p>While global leadership in dealing with climate change may be depressingly limited, I can’t help but wonder if 2018 will be the year our global tribe feels threatened enough to act. </p>
<p>Encouragingly, there may be a historical (and largely unknown) precedent for tackling climate change: Victoria London’s handling of the “Great Stink”, where growth had turned the River Thames into an open sewer.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lowy-institute-poll-shows-australians-support-for-climate-action-at-its-highest-level-in-a-decade-98625">Lowy Institute Poll shows Australians' support for climate action at its highest level in a decade</a>
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<h2>Climate system extremes</h2>
<p>2018 is breaking all manner of records. </p>
<p>In January, the eastern USA and western Europe fell under persistent frigid Arctic conditions brought about by a weakening of the polar vortex. </p>
<p>Six months later, the north has been experiencing exceptional hemispheric-wide <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-gobal-warming-freak-weather-explained/">summer warming and drought</a>, most likely amplified by a weakening of Atlantic Ocean circulation – the latter (ironically) being expressed by unusually <a href="https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1036358788268400641">cool surface ocean waters</a>. </p>
<p>In recent weeks, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45517260">Florence</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45517803">Mangkhut</a> and <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-storm-helene-approaches-with-70mph-gusts-11499729">Helene</a> have become the latest household names to mark a succession of storms battering the USA, Asia and Europe this year. </p>
<p>Closer to home, New South Wales is now suffering a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-27/drought-continues-in-nsw-despite-weekend-rain/10166682">state-wide drought</a>, along with other regions in Australia. Early wildfires and the threat of more to come has resulted in the earliest government <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/it-s-all-bad-earliest-total-fire-bans-on-record-an-ominous-sign-20180815-p4zxn8.html">total fire ban on record</a>. </p>
<p>As the crisis deepens, it’s worth reflecting on Victorian London’s “Great Stink” sewage problem - where things finally got so bad that authorities were forced to accept evidence, reject sceptics, and act.</p>
<h2>A ‘deadly sewer’</h2>
<p>In the Victorian age, London’s growth had turned the River Thames into an open sewer. Conditions were so bad they inspired many to write on the risks to public health. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237998/original/file-20180926-149955-1eq16ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237998/original/file-20180926-149955-1eq16ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237998/original/file-20180926-149955-1eq16ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237998/original/file-20180926-149955-1eq16ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237998/original/file-20180926-149955-1eq16ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237998/original/file-20180926-149955-1eq16ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237998/original/file-20180926-149955-1eq16ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237998/original/file-20180926-149955-1eq16ep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">‘The silent highwayman’, an 1858 cartoon from Punch magazine, commenting on the deadly levels of pollution in the River Thames.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stink">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Charles Dickens provided a lurid description in Little Dorrit, describing the Thames as a <a href="http://www.victorianweb.org/authors/dickens/bigstink.html">“deadly sewer”</a> while the scientist Michael Faraday <a href="https://todayinsci.com/F/Faraday_Michael/FaradayMichael-ThamesPollutionLetter.htm">wrote</a> to The Times of London that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>if we neglect this subject, we cannot expect to do so with impunity; nor ought we to be surprised if, ere many years are over, a hot season give us sad proof of the folly of our carelessness.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237996/original/file-20180926-149982-c2v25n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237996/original/file-20180926-149982-c2v25n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237996/original/file-20180926-149982-c2v25n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=821&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237996/original/file-20180926-149982-c2v25n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=821&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237996/original/file-20180926-149982-c2v25n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=821&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237996/original/file-20180926-149982-c2v25n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1031&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237996/original/file-20180926-149982-c2v25n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1031&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/237996/original/file-20180926-149982-c2v25n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1031&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An 1855 cartoon from Punch Magazine in which Michael Faraday gives his card to ‘Father Thames’, commenting on Faraday gauging the river’s ‘degree of opacity’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stink#/media/File:Caricature;_Faraday_giving_his_card_to_Father_Thames._Wellcome_M0012507.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1854, medic John Snow demonstrated the source of cholera in the London suburb of Soho was a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow">local water pump</a>. To test his ideas, officials removed the handle on the pump, and the number of cases all but disappeared. </p>
<h2>Sewage sceptics</h2>
<p>But there was an intransigence about meeting the threat. Ignoring scientific evidence, “sewage sceptics” held the view that poor air quality – <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1121911/">so called “miasma”</a>– was the cause of the frequent outbreaks of cholera and other diseases. </p>
<p>They convinced the government to reject the evidence, considering there to be “no reason to adopt this belief”. The scale of the sewage problem in London was considered too large to be solved, possibly encouraged by political pressure from the thriving water industry that delivered direct to those who could afford it. For several more years, this view persisted. </p>
<p>That was until the year of the “Great Stink”.</p>
<h2>The ‘Great Stink’ arrives</h2>
<p>In the summer heatwave of 1858, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stink">the Thames’ sewage turned noses across London</a>. Conditions were so bad, teams of men were employed to shovel lime at the many sewage outlets into the capital’s river in a vain attempt to stop the smell. </p>
<p>Even the national legislators were not spared, with the windows of the Houses of Parliament covered in lime-soaked sack cloths. Serious thought was even given to relocating government outside London, at least until the air had cleared. The conditions created a heady stench that cut through the politically charged rhetoric of the day, and forced a rethink.</p>
<p>Within nine years of the “Great Stink”, the 900-kilometre London Sewage Network was constructed - an engineering marvel of the Victorian age. The politicians at the time weren’t immediately convinced the new infrastructure would help public health but the disappearance of disease accepted as the norm for the capital convinced even the most ardent of sceptics. No one talks about miasma as a real thing anymore.</p>
<p>The Great Stink of 1858 overturned beliefs founded on misinformation. A challenge considered impossible, was solved. </p>
<h2>Our generation’s ‘Great Stink’</h2>
<p>Fast forward 160 years and the recent spate of climate headlines is on the back of an increasing trend towards greater extremes, with all the associated human, environmental, and financial costs.</p>
<p>In August of this year, <a href="http://actuariesclimateindex.org/home/">the Actuaries Climate Index</a> – which monitors changes in sea level rise and climate extremes for the North American insurance industry since the 1960s – reported that the five-year moving average reached a new high in 2017. This year promises to continue the trend and is no single outlier.</p>
<p>Will 2018 be the year when the world does something about climate change? </p>
<p>Will 2018 be our generation’s “Great Stink”? </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-nations-play-politics-cities-and-states-are-taking-up-the-climate-challenge-78839">While nations play politics, cities and states are taking up the climate challenge</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Turney consults for cleanech company CarbonScape (<a href="http://www.carbonscape.com">www.carbonscape.com</a>) and receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>As climate extremes mount, let’s reflect on Victorian London’s ‘Great Stink’ sewage crisis - when things finally became so bad authorities were forced to accept evidence, reject sceptics, and act.Christian Turney, Professor of Earth Science and Climate Change, ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/989242018-07-10T10:40:55Z2018-07-10T10:40:55ZGreen-baiting lawmakers are accusing environmentalists of doubling as ‘foreign agents’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226360/original/file-20180705-122247-vm50vl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some U.S. nonprofits are praising China's anti-pollution efforts.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/China-Suing-for-Better-Air/2168bb6bb9d7405db77f3f41e629fa5f/8/0">AP Photo/Andy Wong</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Two congressional committees led by prominent Republicans are looking into whether some U.S. <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/394303-republicans-target-green-groups-over-foreign-ties">environmental groups are acting on behalf of foreign countries</a>. </p>
<p>As an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NMtmNV0AAAAJ&hl=en">environmental lawyer and professor</a> with ample international experience, this probe troubles me. I’m concerned that these efforts may mark the start of an attack on free speech that discourages efforts to improve American environmental policies.</p>
<h2>The probe</h2>
<p>News of this investigation broke when Rep. Rob Bishop, who chairs the House Committee on Natural Resources, and Rep. Bruce Westerman, who leads the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, formally notified the Natural Resources Defense Council of their concerns in early June.</p>
<p><a href="https://naturalresources.house.gov/uploadedfiles/bishop-westerman_to_nrdc_06.05.18.pdf">Their letter</a> accused the NRDC, one of the nation’s biggest environmental groups, of criticizing U.S. environmental policies while engaging in “self-censorship” regarding China and the “ruling Chinese Communist Party.” If it is acting as an agent for Chinese interests, the lawmakers said, the group should register as such as <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usam/criminal-resource-manual-2062-foreign-agents-registration-act-enforcement">required by law</a>.</p>
<p>Their letter also requested information related to the group’s disclosure policies.</p>
<p>Bishop and Westerman sent the <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/house-republican-targets-second-environmental-group-for-its-work-overseas-15a37e505261/">Center for Biological Diversity</a> a similar query pertaining to that environmentalist group’s advocacy regarding the U.S. military base in Okinawa, Japan.</p>
<p>And the two Republicans have asked the Pentagon for details and documents regarding the <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1N1TF2EQ">nonprofits suing the military</a> on environmental grounds. The lawmakers acknowledged that these lawsuits may “represent sincere and justified concerns about the effect of federal actions on the environment.” But they also speculated that “foreign adversaries” can perhaps leverage these legal actions to “reduce U.S. defense capabilities.” </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nrdc.org/media/2018/180605-1">Bob Deans</a>, the NRDC’s director of strategic engagement, denied that it was doing a foreign country’s bidding. Instead, “we work on behalf of every American to protect our people against dangerous pollution and leave our children a livable world,” he said.</p>
<p>Rather than just refute the allegations, Center for Biological Diversity Executive Director <a href="https://twitter.com/KieranSuckling/status/1009500062735478784">Kierán Suckling</a> questioned the motives for this investigation. He called on Bishop “to release all communications between himself and industry groups seeking to destroy America’s natural heritage” and suggested that the Utah Republican was attacking conservation groups at the behest of fossil fuel companies.</p>
<p>The probe <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/394303-republicans-target-green-groups-over-foreign-ties">could spread to other environmental groups</a>, The Hill reported.</p>
<h2>Chinese activities</h2>
<p>The NRDC is a U.S.-based nonprofit with offices around the globe with an <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/">official mission</a> “to ensure the rights of all people to clean air, clean water, and healthy communities.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nrdc.org/china">The group’s priorities in China</a> are generally the same as what it calls for in America and elsewhere: boosting energy efficiency, cutting coal consumption, and cleaning up ports and waterways.</p>
<p>I am somewhat familiar with the NRDC’s work in China because I <a href="http://acoel.org/post/2014/04/18/Winds-of-Change-in-China%E2%80%99s-National-People%E2%80%99s-Congress.aspx">traveled there in 2014</a> with two other U.S. environmental lawyers at the NRDC’s request. The group had asked us to meet on an informal basis with Chinese government officials. The purpose of these meetings in Beijng was to explain how the U.S. government handles violations of environmental laws and damages to natural resources. In light of China’s own “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/05/china-pollution-economic-reform-growth-target">war on pollution</a>,” their government was looking for good models and guidance.</p>
<p>The National People’s Congress subsequently <a href="http://acoel.org/post/2014/09/12/Observations-on-China%E2%80%99s-New-Environmental-Protection-Law.aspx">amended Chinese environmental laws</a>, incorporating some of the concepts we discussed – all of which were modeled on the U.S. legal system. </p>
<p>There was no hint or suggestion during those meetings that our access to Chinese officials was conditioned on anyone speaking favorably of China’s environmental efforts. Nor was there any reason to expect the NRDC to take any particular political stance back home in the U.S. because of those interactions.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, the <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/media/2016/160315-0">NRDC has complimented China</a> for strengthening its environmental laws. But the NRDC has also criticized China’s <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/experts/barbara-finamore/air-pollution-crisis-gives-new-momentum-environmental-regulation-china">staggeringly dirty air and water</a> and its vast greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>At the same time, the NRDC has gone out of its way <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/7-things-you-can-do-help-nrdc-fight-trumps-agenda">to oppose the Trump administration’s environmental deregulation policies</a> – like <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2017/01/10/more-50-organizations-launch-united-resistance-campaign-trumps-cabinet-hearings">most of the nation’s big green groups</a>.</p>
<h2>Okinawa dugongs</h2>
<p>The Center for Biological Diversity allegedly inappropriate overseas activities have to do with dugongs. The <a href="https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/species/mammals/Okinawa_dugong/">endangered marine mammals</a>, which resemble manatees, inhabit the waters surrounding the Okinawa Islands.</p>
<p>The center, which opposes U.S. military plans to build a new American airbase in Henoko Bay, has been leading coalitions of U.S. and Japanese environmental groups that have filed lawsuits that have <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/08/22/national/crime-legal/9th-u-s-circuit-court-appeals-revives-suit-protect-dugong-habitat-okinawa-base-site/">delayed and could prevent the planned airbase construction</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226365/original/file-20180705-122268-1p3e0kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226365/original/file-20180705-122268-1p3e0kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/226365/original/file-20180705-122268-1p3e0kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226365/original/file-20180705-122268-1p3e0kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226365/original/file-20180705-122268-1p3e0kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=379&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226365/original/file-20180705-122268-1p3e0kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226365/original/file-20180705-122268-1p3e0kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/226365/original/file-20180705-122268-1p3e0kh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=476&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Japanese protesters objecting to American military construction in Okinawa are concerned about the potential impact on dugongs, marine mammals that resemble manatees.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Japan-US-Military/d9c46925d102460987ea95e555353867/11/0">AP Photo/Shizuo Kambayashi</a></span>
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<p>The letters to both green groups call on them to comply with the <a href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCODE-2009-title22/pdf/USCODE-2009-title22-chap11-subchapII.pdf">Foreign Agents Registration Act</a>. That law requires all people and organizations acting in the U.S. on behalf of foreign countries to register with the Justice Department as foreign agents.</p>
<p>Failing to do this is a crime, but <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usam/criminal-resource-manual-2062-foreign-agents-registration-act-enforcement">prosecutions have been rare since 1966</a>. The case against former Trump presidential campaign chairman <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/10/how-the-manafort-indictment-gave-bite-to-a-toothless-law/544448/">Paul Manafort and his aide Rick Gates</a>, who are accused of violating this act, is the biggest in years.</p>
<p>I believe that requiring these groups to register as foreign agents might hamper their work within the U.S. for two reasons. First, policymakers and lawmakers might suspect that they were more interested in working on behalf of foreign governments and interests than protecting the environment. Second, there could be repercussions in terms of <a href="https://nonprofitquarterly.org/2015/01/06/10-ways-to-kill-your-nonprofit/">these nonprofits’ funding</a>, <a href="http://catalystlawllc.com/2017/09/18/legal-considerations-u-s-based-non-profits-operating-overseas/">finances</a> and <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2018/06/shell-companies-foreign-election-spending/">reputation</a>. </p>
<p>This new GOP strategy can be compared <a href="http://socialsciences.ucdavis.edu/iss-journal/features/red-baiting-and-the-birth-of-modern-conservatism">to red-baiting</a>, the practice of persecuting and undermining people by accusing them of being communists, socialists or anarchists, that began in the Cold War. I believe these Republicans are “<a href="https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Anti-environmentalism">green-baiting</a>” environmental groups to persecute them. At the same time, they are casting doubt on the real goals of these groups’ advocacy, thereby undermining it.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the most dangerous thing about this probe may have to do with free speech rights. Because praising a foreign country’s environmental record while criticizing U.S. policy is possible without committing treason, the only rationale I can find for this investigation is that it might stifle environmentalists.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98924/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James A. Holtkamp is a Fellow of the American College of Environmental Lawyers. The College's members advise nonprofits and governments throughout the world, serving as neutral, objective consultants. In 2014, Holtkamp participated in discussions with the Chinese government under an agreement between the College and the Natural Resources Defense Council. He serves in a similar role on behalf of the College for EnvisionUtah, a U.S. nonprofit.</span></em></p>Just like with Cold War-era red-baiting, there’s an apparent effort to discredit and undermine critics of the US government.James A. Holtkamp, Adjunct Professor, College of Law, University of UtahLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/894972018-01-17T03:12:38Z2018-01-17T03:12:38ZSignaling more independence from the US, the World Bank phases out its support for fossil fuels<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201242/original/file-20180108-142334-1uff8a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">World Bank President Jim Yong Kim, left, and French President Emmanuel Macron. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/France-Climate-Summit/9e4e985f6de443c49cda184a912c3253/1/0">AP Photo/Francois Mori</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/042303.asp">World Bank</a>, which provides developing countries about <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/07/18/nearly-59-billion-in-world-bank-group-support-to-developing-countries-in-fiscal-year-2017">US$60 billion</a> a year in financial assistance, is officially phasing out its support for the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2017/12/12/high-level-session-opening-remarks-by-world-bank-group-president-jim-yong-kim">oil and gas industries</a>.</p>
<p>This move brings <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/who-we-are/news/campaigns/2017/12-climate-change-actions">its actions</a> more in sync with its overarching commitment to slowing the pace of <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatefinance">climate change</a> and keeping the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">Paris agreement</a> on track. Based on my research regarding international relations, I see this move – which World Bank President Jim Yong Kim announced in December – as significant for two reasons.</p>
<p>The bank has signaled that the international community is taking the fight against global warming more seriously than ever. And it shows that the bank intends to <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2017/12/01/green-bonds">keep playing a leading role</a> in that battle at a time when its <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/BODINT/Resources/278027-1215524804501/IBRDCountryVotingTable.pdf">most powerful shareholder</a>, the U.S., is turning its back on global environmental leadership.</p>
<h2>Climate leadership</h2>
<p>Kim has been taking the World Bank in a direction that climate change activists and other critics <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2017/12/12/one-planet-summit-world-bank-steals-show-phasing-out-upstream-oil-and-gas">have long advocated</a> by positioning the institution as a global environmental leader since he became its president in 2012.</p>
<p>In 2013, the bank decided to stop financing the construction of <a href="http://grist.org/climate-energy/world-bank-joins-war-on-coal/">coal-fired power plants</a>, except in cases where no viable alternatives existed.</p>
<p>Three years later, the World Bank pledged that it would make <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/07/world-bank-investments-climate-change-environment">28 percent of all of its transactions</a> by 2020 <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/projects/all">advance climate action</a>. </p>
<p>The bank’s <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatefinance">climate efforts</a> are wide-ranging. It lends money to build solar and wind farms, requires its borrowers to take steps to shrink their carbon footprints, and has a goal of “<a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/24451/K8860.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y">greening the whole financial system</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201241/original/file-20180108-83585-1vf3ppm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201241/original/file-20180108-83585-1vf3ppm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201241/original/file-20180108-83585-1vf3ppm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201241/original/file-20180108-83585-1vf3ppm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201241/original/file-20180108-83585-1vf3ppm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201241/original/file-20180108-83585-1vf3ppm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201241/original/file-20180108-83585-1vf3ppm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201241/original/file-20180108-83585-1vf3ppm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim, former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and other leaders speak during a panel on climate-related finance during a meeting hosted by the bank and the International Monetary Fund.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/33375015193/in/album-72157682731632555/">Grant Ellis / World Bank</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>U.S. relations</h2>
<p>Kim’s announcement, which rules out new lending but does not affect loans made in the past or in the next year or two, may portend some political drama. But President Donald Trump has not yet commented on it. </p>
<p>That could change, given that Trump has declared that the U.S. would <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/01/politics/trump-paris-climate-decision/index.html">withdraw from the Paris agreement</a>. Exiting the world’s most <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-americas-global-leadership-78736">far-reaching global climate compact</a>, signed by nearly every country on the planet, until now has appeared to be a largely symbolic gesture. Trump has even said that he might “conceivably” <a href="https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Says-US-Could-Conceivably-Rejoin-Paris-Climate-Accord.html">change course</a>.</p>
<p>However, his administration has sought to <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/house-committee-approves-foreign-aid-budget-in-late-night-session-90690">cut some of the funding for the World Bank</a> and <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS20792.pdf">similar institutions</a>.</p>
<p>Although the U.S. wields <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/unitedstates/overview">veto power</a> over changes to the World Bank’s structure and has historically <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/world-bank-president-elections-us-jim-yong-kim/">selected its top leader</a>,
Kim’s tenure is apparently safe. He began a second five-year term in July 2017, and <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/trump-world-bank-and-imf-explaining-dog-didnt-bark-yet">Trump has supported him so far</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jnZHY_kFRNw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">On Jan. 10, 2018, President Donald Trump said that the U.S. “could conceivably go back in” and rejoin the Paris climate agreement.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The fine print</h2>
<p>When the bank swore off coal in 2013, <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ft/thinking-through-when-world-bank-should-fund-coal-projects">Kim argued</a> that “poor people should not pay the price with their lives of mistakes that people have been making in the developed world for a very long time.”</p>
<p>Since then, the bank’s primary lending division has only <a href="http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2016/08/world-bank-considers-financing-of-kosovan-coal-fired-power-plant.html">considered one loan</a> for a coal project, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/20/kosovo-coal-plant-power-world-bank-investment-dirty-technology">Kosovo power plant</a>. </p>
<p>But the World Bank Group’s two private sector arms, the <a href="http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/992394804ae15e6f9f8b9f34fbf4cc68/infra-cheat-sheet-2017.pdf?MOD=AJPERES">International Finance Corp.</a> and the <a href="https://www.miga.org/sectors/infrastructure">Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency</a>, have continued to support <a href="http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2017/12/Dirty-Dozen-briefing.pdf">new fossil fuel ventures</a>, including coal, in <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/12/08/miga-dirtiest-world-bank-wing-youve-never-heard/">African</a> and <a href="http://www.inclusivedevelopment.net/world-bank-secretly-funding-coal-explosion-in-asia-despite-president-kim-warning-we-are-finished/">Asian</a> countries – and elsewhere.</p>
<p>For example, the IFC, has indirectly funded <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/world-bank-accused-funding-asia-coal-power-boom-161003045753947.html">41 new coal-fired power plants</a> in countries like Bangladesh and the Philippines by financing banks that lent money to build them – despite the bank’s refusal to directly make loans like those. </p>
<p>The IFC also directly invested $200 million in Citla Energy, a <a href="https://ifcext.ifc.org/ifcext/pressroom/ifcpressroom.nsf/0/F5926162D1EFB49485257F9B0059208E">Mexican oil company</a>, in 2016.</p>
<p>Likewise, when Kim made this announcement, he did not completely rule out all future support for gas investment. Instead, he held open the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2017/12/12/high-level-session-opening-remarks-by-world-bank-group-president-jim-yong-kim">possibility of continued support</a> for natural gas “in the poorest countries where there is a clear benefit in terms of energy access for the poor and the project fits within the countries’ Paris Agreement commitments.”</p>
<h2>To be continued</h2>
<p>For an institution whose mission seeks a “<a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/572401468339052132/Our-dream-a-world-free-of-poverty">world free of poverty</a>,” the impulse to continue lending for fossil fuel projects could be strong. Recent experience with coal suggests that while the bank’s direct lending indeed may end in all but isolated cases, its indirect support for private sector investment may continue.</p>
<p>The alternative to this support for poor countries is usually to partner with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-offshore-drilling-asia-analysis/offshore-oil-searches-are-coming-back-to-fashion-just-not-in-asia-idUSKBN1EE0IQ">private investors</a>, including corporations and big countries such as <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2121155/cefc-china-energy-oil-and-gas-deals-it-quietly-snapped">China</a>, which is lending developing countries about <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/is-chinas-development-finance-a-challenge-to-the-international-order/">$40 billion a year</a>, according to economist David Dollar.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"810114074772144128"}"></div></p>
<p>Given the Bank’s emphasis on <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatefinance">climate action</a>, supporting <a href="http://www.eesi.org/topics/fossil-fuels/description">oil, gas and coal</a> production – the main cause of climate change – makes little institutional sense.</p>
<p>But we expect developing countries to continue to exploit their oil and gas deposits even without the World Bank’s help, even if that means they reap less revenue from these industries due to their weaker bargaining power. For this reason, the bank will weigh carefully whether to pull out of fossil fuels entirely in the very poorest countries.</p>
<p>The World Bank includes 188 <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/about/leadership/members">member countries</a> besides the U.S. Even if the institution’s bucking of fossil fuels proves somewhat less than absolute, any progress in that direction shows how hard it would be for the Trump administration to truly undermine the Paris climate deal.</p>
<p><em>This article has been corrected to reflect the fact that the World Bank has not approved the Kosovo coal loan that it has considered making.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89497/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Kirk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Its plan to stop lending money for oil and gas projects embraces the spirit of the Paris agreement at a time when the U.S. is going in a different direction.Jason Kirk, Associate Professor of Political Science and Policy Studies, Elon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/840252017-09-15T11:12:49Z2017-09-15T11:12:49ZThe 30-year-old ozone layer treaty has a new role: fighting climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186032/original/file-20170914-21553-t54chh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>The 1987 treaty that stopped the pollution causing a hole in the ozone layer is rightly seen as a major success story. It’s arguably the most successful international environmental agreement ever. It’s true that, 30 years on from the signing of the Montreal Protocol, the Antarctic ozone hole still reappears every year. Yet the protocol really is working and its continued development means that it is doing more good than ever, including helping the fight against climate change.</p>
<p>In 1985, scientists made the unexpected discovery that the Earth’s ozone shield, located in the stratosphere about 20km-30km above the surface and essential for life, contained a huge <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v315/n6016/abs/315207a0.html?foxtrotcallback=true">hole over Antarctica</a>. The cause was quickly established to be chemicals, notably chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used as aerosol propellants and refrigerants, which are stable at low altitudes but release ozone-destroying chlorine and bromine when they <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v249/n5460/abs/249810a0.html">break down in the upper atmosphere</a>.</p>
<p>It took just two years for intensive research, building on work on ozone depletion from the 1970s, to provide enough evidence for politicians representing every country in the UN to take action. They agreed to limit production of CFCs and other related gases. Signed on September 16, 1987, the <a href="http://ozone.unep.org/en/treaties-and-decisions/montreal-protocol-substances-deplete-ozone-layer">Montreal Protocol</a> put the brakes on increasing ozone depletion. This prevented the catastrophic scenarios of large, global-scale ozone depletion that would have severely damaged animal and plant life at the surface through large increases in ultraviolet (UV) radiation. For example, skin cancer rates in humans would have increased greatly.</p>
<p>Despite the success of the protocol, a large Antarctic ozone hole continues to appear every spring in the southern hemisphere. In fact, the hole continued to grow for almost 20 years after the Montreal Protocol was put in place, with the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6077018.stm">largest hole recorded</a> in 2006. This is because the process by which the atmosphere can cleanse itself of the stable CFC molecules takes <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/hats/publictn/elkins/cfcs.html">many decades</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186004/original/file-20170914-8975-l0vf33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186004/original/file-20170914-8975-l0vf33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186004/original/file-20170914-8975-l0vf33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186004/original/file-20170914-8975-l0vf33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186004/original/file-20170914-8975-l0vf33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186004/original/file-20170914-8975-l0vf33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186004/original/file-20170914-8975-l0vf33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">CFCs were commonly found in aerosols.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even though the emission of these chemicals has now largely stopped, the CFCs already in the atmosphere will carry on releasing their chlorine and bromine for decades to come, as they are slowly broken down by sunlight in the upper atmosphere. As such, the ozone hole will take about three times longer to disappear than it did to appear, eventually closing sometime in the second half of the century. In the meantime, the thinner ozone shield will lead to some <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/assessments/ozone/2014/">increased levels of surface UV and changes to surface winds and temperature</a>, especially in the southern hemisphere.</p>
<p>Even over the past ten years, scientists have struggled to detect the first signs of repair. Polar ozone loss is driven by the formation of stratospheric clouds at low temperatures. This means ozone depletion is worse after colder winters because more cloud particles form. So <a href="http://rdcu.be/vPer">natural variations</a> in the meteorological conditions in the stratosphere – occasionally enhanced by volcanic eruptions that can replicate the role of the clouds – have helped to mask the small recovery trend.</p>
<p>Despite this, scientists have finally started to observe the expected <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2016/06/30/science.aae0061">increase in ozone</a>. Comparing the current behaviour of the atmosphere with detailed computer models that remove the effect of meteorological variations shows that recovery really has started. As a result, researchers have a high degree of confidence that the Antarctic ozone hole will gradually decrease and return to its 1980 size, when it first became detectable, <a href="https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9451/2010/">by about 2050</a>. It is now a question of being vigilant for other unknown factors and checking that the recovery proceeds as expected.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186008/original/file-20170914-2774-v75cyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/186008/original/file-20170914-2774-v75cyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186008/original/file-20170914-2774-v75cyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186008/original/file-20170914-2774-v75cyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=649&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186008/original/file-20170914-2774-v75cyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=816&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186008/original/file-20170914-2774-v75cyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=816&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/186008/original/file-20170914-2774-v75cyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=816&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changes in ozone layer over Antarctica from 1979 until 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/pennstatelive/8432266519/in/photolist-dR8z4v-8Bnytf-Na9VA5-MfyGdG-MfyGn9-N5E5je-MfyFof-MfyGKo-MfyGyb-MfyG5L-MfyFWQ-MfyFNJ-MfyFCd-MfyEPE-N5E5BZ-MfyEbW-Na9VrN-Na9Vcj-Na9UJA-Na9Uo5-MftBLV-MftBFp-MftBBg-MftBuT-MfyHDh-MfyHvw-MfyHo7-MfyHcq-MfyH5b-9uwF8v-9uwFdD-JztpV1-8BsD5f-p1wdkY-pi21qX-Kp7jzn-JzB3PM-JztpC7-Kp7jov-K5U1L7-JztpWJ-Jztq59-pi21E4-JztpPj-p1wYR8-oTy9ek-p1vPeX-dyENdt-p1x5C9-pVuooe">PennState/flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate change</h2>
<p>The process of protecting the ozone layer didn’t end when the Protocol was signed, and it has continually evolved with periodic amendments to place stronger controls on ozone-depleting gases and to bring new ones into the agreement. Most recently it has been drafted into the fight against man-made climate change. The ozone-depleting gases being controlled by the agreement are also very potent <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/104/12/4814.abstract">greenhouse gases</a>. Like carbon dioxide, they very efficiently absorb infra-red radiation and so contribute to global warming. </p>
<p>In the latest amendment to the Montreal Protocol, signed in 2016, policy makers agreed to limit the emission of the compounds designed to replace CFCs, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/15/kigali-deal-hfcs-climate-change">hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)</a>. These gases, used for example in air conditioning units, do not lead to ozone depletion but are greenhouse gases. So bringing them under the umbrella of the Montreal Protocol will help reduce future climate change.</p>
<p>We all owe a debt of gratitude to the scientists, politicians and industry leaders who created such an effective and flexible agreement which, 30 years on, is doing what it set out to achieve and more.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84025/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martyn Chipperfield receives funding from Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), European Union (EU). </span></em></p>The Montreal Protocol is finally closing the hole in the ozone layer.Martyn Chipperfield, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/788392017-06-07T04:21:11Z2017-06-07T04:21:11ZWhile nations play politics, cities and states are taking up the climate challenge<p>Last week, Donald Trump entered the White House Rose Garden and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/01/statement-president-trump-paris-climate-accord">announced</a> that the United States would withdraw from the Paris climate accord. In doing so, he fulfilled his campaign promise to “<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36401174">cancel</a>” the Paris deal, a move that calls into question the <a href="https://theconversation.com/president-trump-could-kill-the-paris-agreement-but-climate-action-will-survive-68596">future of the entire agreement</a>. </p>
<p>In withdrawing, Trump cited the (<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-decision-to-leave-paris-accord-hurts-the-us-and-the-world-78707">arguably short-term</a>) sacrifice the agreement requires of the US. This perspective fulfils the famous prediction made by economist <a href="http://www.anb.org/articles/16/16-03570.html">Garrett Hardin</a> in the 1960s: the “<a href="https://edisciplinas.usp.br/pluginfile.php/140407/mod_resource/content/1/Garrett%20Hardin%201968.pdf">tragedy of the commons</a>”. Hardin wrote that self-interest drives individuals to exploit collective resources in the short term, even to their long-term detriment. </p>
<p>Hardin and those following him thought the only way to avoid this tragedy was by securing collective agreements. That is why so many people view the Paris Accord as a vital mechanism for addressing climate change. It is also why the US withdrawal is devastating. </p>
<p>But another famous economist, <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21557717">Elinor Ostrom</a>, saw things differently. Writing after the demise of the Kyoto Agreement but before the Paris Accord, Ostrom said that faith in multinational accords to address climate change was misplaced. Ostrom saw the limits of such collective action. Crucially, Ostrom suggested that we should also recognise the potential of <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1494833">localised collective action</a>. </p>
<p>And already there are examples in both the developed and developing world that this is happening right now.</p>
<h2>The new global leadership</h2>
<p>Ultimately, efforts to reduce global warming are advanced by the pedestrian, daily choices of households, businesses, and sub-national governments. Millions of local choices can have global effects, for good or ill. </p>
<p>It’s clear that Trump is stepping away from global leadership on climate change. But in response, the state governors of <a href="http://time.com/4802590/climate-alliance-paris-accord-new-york-california/">Washington, New York and California</a> declared they remain committed to the Paris climate targets. Since then, <a href="http://governor.wa.gov/news-media/united-states-climate-alliance-adds-10-new-members-coalition-committed-upholding-paris">a further 10 US states</a> have joined the budding Climate Alliance. </p>
<p>In the past two decades, mounting evidence has shown the power of such efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. These efforts have been driven by <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2399654417708440">policy entrepreneurs</a> – people with vision, energy, and the collaborative instincts required to promote collective action. A classic example is provided by the former mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, who in 2005 invited mayors from other mega-cities to join him in <a href="http://www.c40.org/blog_posts/10-defining-moments-in-c40-history">promoting climate change efforts</a>. That <a href="http://www.c40.org/">initiative</a> has spurred many more, with transformative effects.</p>
<p>Looking around the world, we can see the diversity of localised initiatives in place to address climate change. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.itdp.org/city-transformations/sao-paulo/">Sao Paulo</a>, Brazil, traffic congestion and pollution are being addressed by providing better public transport options and more bicycle lanes. </p>
<p>In Ethiopia, the <a href="http://www.c40.org/awards/2016-awards/profiles/107">Addis Ababa Light Rail Transport Project</a> aims to reduce significantly the greenhouse gas emissions from cars.</p>
<p>In India, <a href="http://www.c40.org/awards/2016-awards/profiles/102">Kolkata</a> has implemented the Solid Waste Management Improvement Project, which is reducing the release of methane emissions, while contributing to improved public sanitation.</p>
<p>Across Europe, cities have started emulating <a href="http://wwf.panda.org/?204421/Ghent-meat-free-Thursdays">meat-free Thursdays</a>, which originated in Ghent, Belgium. Aside from other benefits, reducing meat consumption can reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>In the US, leaders in cities and states have done much to reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by cars and coal-fired power plants, for example through the <a href="https://www.rggi.org/">Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative</a>.</p>
<p>Globally, the <a href="https://www.cdp.net/en">Carbon Disclosure Project</a> has significantly influenced actions of businesses and governments alike.</p>
<p>Particularly important for smaller developing countries is the <a href="http://antiguaobserver.com/cartagena-dialogue-encourages-sustained-momentum-in-fight-against-climate-change/">Cartegena Dialogue</a>. It creates opportunities for leaders to share strategies for mitigating climate change and – just as urgently, especially for small Pacific nations – adapting to it. </p>
<p>The Paris Accord is a landmark, multilateral initiative. The withdrawal of the US is appalling, and deserves a strong rebuke. But it does not foreshadow the unravelling of multilateral resolve for addressing climate change. </p>
<p>The backslappers in Washington have had their Rose Garden moment. Elsewhere, energetic policy entrepreneurs are mobilising. Grounded in their communities, they are acting to protect the planet for today’s young people, and for those not yet born. That too, is global leadership.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78839/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Mintrom does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the US leaves the Paris accord, how much faith should we put in international treaties? States, cities and local movements are increasingly important players in the fight against climate change.Michael Mintrom, Professor of Public Sector Management, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/396252015-04-01T02:16:17Z2015-04-01T02:16:17ZUS submits climate target to UN while Australia looks for excuses<p>The United States has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/31/fact-sheet-us-reports-its-2025-emissions-target-unfccc">formally submitted</a> its target for a post-2020 climate deal to be negotiated in Paris at the end of 2015. The target, to reduce greenhouse gases 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025, is the same as announced in a joint <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-china-climate-deal-at-last-a-real-game-changer-on-emissions-34148">deal with China</a> in November last year. </p>
<p>Australia is currently <a href="https://www.dpmc.gov.au/taskforces/unfccc/how-make-submission">seeking submissions</a> on a post-2020 climate target, with a formal announcement expected by mid-2015. However a <a href="https://www.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Issues_Paper_greenhouse_gas_1.pdf">discussion paper</a> released on Saturday suggests that Australia is looking for excuses to free-ride on the efforts of other nations. </p>
<h2>Looking for excuses</h2>
<p>The government discussion paper comes fairly late in the international process. <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-2015-climate-summit-countries-targets-beyond-2020-38427">Some other countries</a>, notably the US and the European Union, have already formally submitted their targets, or have provided clear statements of their intent. Global action seems to be accelerating, leaving Australia in the dust.</p>
<p>The discussion paper, authored by the Prime Minister’s department, has been met with widespread, scathing – and appropriate - <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/30/australias-climate-change-policy-on-course-for-disastrous-4c-warming">criticism</a>.</p>
<p>It reminds me of Australia’s “poor little rich kid” approach taken when negotiating our <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/clive-hamilton/3238974">extremely generous 1997 Kyoto target</a>, while failing to focus on the fundamental goals of global climate policy. As in 1997, it argues that Australia is “different”, so we need more generous emission targets than other countries. The discussion paper notes that Australia’s population and economic growth is stronger than other developed nations, putting upwards pressure on greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>Yet some of the differences, such as our present high coal dependence, justify a stronger, not weaker, target. We have <a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/3/30/policy-politics/abbott-government-trying-pull-another-kyoto-con">more scope to cut emissions</a> than other low emission intensity countries.</p>
<p>The problem is that most countries can claim differences. And a high carbon Australian economy is vulnerable to the outcomes of effective actions by other countries.</p>
<p>The paper attempts to justify weak ambitions instead of recognising the benefits of stronger action for Australia while acknowledging the challenges. Its key flaw is that limited action before 2030 means <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/publications/what-progression-means-for-australias-post-2020-targets.html">impossibly rapid</a> and economically disruptive emission cuts would be needed by 2050 if Australia is to play a meaningful role in limiting warming to anywhere near the 2C “climate danger” threshold. </p>
<p>For instance, <a href="http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/publications/what-progression-means-for-australias-post-2020-targets.html">The Climate Institute</a> recommends cuts of 40% below 2000 levels by 2025, and 65-75% below 2000 levels by 2035. Smaller targets would require greater action beyond 2025 – if Australia sticks to an unconditional 5% below 2000 levels by 2020, emissions reductions of 9% each year are required to keep warming below 2C. But if Australia adopts the conditional target of 15% below 1990 levels by 2020, the effort required is 6.5% each year.</p>
<p>This doesn’t fit well with the government’s rhetoric on <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/%7E/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2015/2015%20Intergenerational%20Report/Downloads/PDF/2015_IGR.ashx">intergenerational fairness</a>.</p>
<p>At least the paper acknowledges climate change is happening. It restates the government’s faith in its Direct Action measures, although it flags the possible need for further action such as vehicle fuel efficiency, building and appliance standards. </p>
<h2>Australia compared</h2>
<p>In contrast to the government’s approach, the Climate Change Authority has issued a <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/prod.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/CCA_Practical_Guide_Comparing_Countries%20FINAL.pdf">very helpful guide</a> to understanding the issues underlying target setting. It will also publish proposed targets based on its comprehensive approach. This will provide a far better basis for public discussion than the government’s five page paper.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76689/original/image-20150331-1274-dckid7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=722&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s unconditional 5% target is not compatible with efforts to keep warming below 2C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/prod.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/CCA_Practical_Guide_Comparing_Countries%20FINAL.pdf">Climate Change Authority</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the government emphasises that certainty is important for business and policy makers, its likely post-2020 target will not provide this, because it will be completely out of step with commitments from other Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It will have to be revised in the near future. It will provide the certainty of uncertainty and confusion. </p>
<p>The inadequacy of the discussion paper’s aspirations will simply undermine the relevance of the Australian government to climate action within Australia and internationally. It may well provoke state and local governments and progressive businesses to step up their action and focus more on coordinated approaches. </p>
<p>Also banks and other financial businesses need somewhere to invest their money other than in fossil fuels, so they may build on recent developments to mobilise abatement activity. </p>
<p>We are already seeing state and local governments supporting new investments in renewable energy and introducing stronger energy efficiency measures. The financial community is offering finance for emission reduction projects, and shifting funds away from investments vulnerable to global climate action. </p>
<p>So others will fill the vacuum. But this will be less co-ordinated and certain than an effective national strategy.</p>
<p>At the end of the paper, the government invites submissions on our post-2020 target, the potential impacts, and possible additional policies that could complement Direct Action. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Alan will be on hand for an Author Q&A session between 2:30 and 3:30pm AEDT on Thursday April 2. Post your questions about the article in the comments section below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39625/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Pears AM has carried out consulting work for many sustainable energy organisations and provides policy advice to a variety of organisations. At present he has no paid roles for such organisations. He is an honorary adviser to the Energy Efficiency Council, Climate Alliance and Alternative Technology Association</span></em></p>The US has made its formal submission of climate targets beyond 2020. But Australia continues to twiddle its thumbs.Alan Pears, Sustainable Energy & Climate Researcher, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/343082014-11-18T19:23:02Z2014-11-18T19:23:02ZUN Green Climate Fund: it’s time for Australia to step up<p>The G20 summit in Brisbane has put the pressure on Australia to boost its action on climate change not just at home but also internationally through a new UN-backed fund.</p>
<p>The summit yielded <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/16/us-g20-summit-climatefund-japan-idUSKCN0J00UL20141116">major pledges</a> to the Green Climate Fund by the US (US$3 billion) and Japan (US$1.5 billion). Combined with <a href="http://www.trust.org/item/20140926123842-vu9os/?source=fiBlogs">earlier pledges</a> by France, Germany and others, the fund is now three-quarters of the way towards reaching its initial funding target of US$10 billion by the time of a <a href="http://www.gcfund.org/fileadmin/00_customer/documents/Press/GCF_Press_Release_2014_11_07_pledging_conference_berlin.pdf">pledging conference</a> this Thursday. </p>
<p>Even Canada, which often <a href="http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20140923/canada-australia-axis-carbon-obstacle-climate-pact">sides</a> with Australia on a go-slow response to climate change, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/red-faces-for-tony-abbott-on-green-climate-fund-20141117-11oca7.html">plans</a> to chip in. </p>
<p>Should Australia join other wealthy countries in making a substantial pledge to the Fund?</p>
<h2>Australia backs away</h2>
<p>After the Brisbane summit, Prime Minister Tony Abbott <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/17/tony-abbott-rules-out-contributions-australia-green-climate-fund">stated</a> that “we are doing a very great deal and I suppose given what we are doing we don’t intend, at this time, to do more”. </p>
<p>But the claim that Australia is doing even a “great deal” on climate change just doesn’t hold water. Even if Australia had an ambitious domestic agenda, which the Coalition’s Direct Action strategy <a href="https://theconversation.com/palmer-deal-gives-green-light-to-direct-action-experts-react-33601">patently isn’t</a>, reducing domestic pollution isn’t the end of the story. </p>
<p>As I’ve argued <a href="https://theconversation.com/backing-away-from-climate-funding-will-further-damage-australias-credentials-20087">previously</a>, it makes both strategic and moral sense for Australia to invest in low-cost opportunities to curb emissions in developing countries, while also helping vulnerable countries in our region to cope with cyclones, floods and other climate risks.</p>
<p>Both <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/17/tony-abbott-rules-out-contributions-australia-green-climate-fund">the Prime Minister</a> and Foreign Minister <a href="http://foreignminister.gov.au/speeches/Pages/2014/jb_sp_140923b.aspx">Julie Bishop</a> have cited aid to Pacific island countries as an example of Australia’s existing international climate action. </p>
<p>The Foreign Minister has also <a href="http://foreignminister.gov.au/speeches/Pages/2014/jb_sp_140923b.aspx">harked back</a> to the A$600 million in “fast-start” climate finance that the previous government delivered over three years to mid-2013.</p>
<p>But since taking office, the Coalition has been reticent on further climate finance pledges. It has also <a href="https://theconversation.com/backing-away-from-climate-funding-will-further-damage-australias-credentials-20087">poured cold water</a> on the prospects of an Australian contribution to the Fund. Nor has the government spelt out a credible plan for meeting its share of a collective <a href="http://devpolicy.org/climate-finance-getting-to-100-billion-a-year-by-2020-20101110/">promise</a> that wealthy countries have made under the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenhagen_Accord">Copenhagen climate Accord</a> in 2009 to mobilise US$100 billion a year for developing countries by 2020.</p>
<h2>Why the UN Green Climate Fund?</h2>
<p>The Fund <a href="http://www.gcfund.org/about/the-fund.html">aims</a> to help poorer countries achieve the shift to low-polluting development that is resilient to climate-related impacts. The Fund is unique in its capacity to catalyse the kind of large-scale investments required for this shift. </p>
<p>As well as channelling public resources, the Fund aims to leverage much larger private sector resources by reducing investment risks. In the longer term, this will help to lighten the burden on the budgets of wealthy countries.</p>
<p>How can we be sure that the Fund will be effective? The idea that multilateral agencies fritter away taxpayers’ money is a common bogeyman. But many larger multilateral development funds and programs perform considerably <a href="http://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/QUODA_final_revised_september.pdf">better</a> (see page 16) than Australia (and indeed than most other bilateral government aid agencies) on efficiency and other measures of aid quality.</p>
<p>Through a painstaking design process, the Green Climate Fund has earned the confidence of both developed and developing countries. Under the previous government Australia played a central role in this process as <a href="http://aid.dfat.gov.au/MediaReleases/Pages/Australia-appointed-co-chair-of-the-Green-Climate-Fund-Board.aspx">co-chair</a> of its board, and worked to ensure that the Fund will operate effectively with adequate financial and social safeguards.</p>
<h2>How much should Australia contribute?</h2>
<p>In a 2011 <a href="http://devpolicy.org/climate-change-financing-for-poorer-countries-how-australia-can-meet-its-commitment20111025/">working paper</a>, ANU colleagues Frank Jotzo, Peter Wood and I calculated Australia’s fair share of any collective climate change financing pledge to be 2-3%, based on its share of wealthy countries’ income and greenhouse gas emissions. This is in line with Australia’s recent commitment to the Global Environment Facility of <a href="http://www.thegef.org/gef/sites/thegef.org/files/documents/GEF.A.5.07.Rev_.01_Report_on_the_Sixth_Replenishment_of_the_GEF_Trust_Fund_May_22_2014.pdf">2.4%</a> (see page 238) and other recent analysis published in <a href="http://news.gcfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/nclimate2390.pdf">Nature Climate Change</a>. </p>
<p>Based on a US$10 billion target, a share of 2-3% would amount to US$200-300 million (A$230-340 million) or around A$60-85 million a year if spread over four years like the US pledge. This annual figure equates to less than 2% of Australia’s A$5 billion <a href="http://devpolicy.org/less-aid-less-transparency-the-2014-15-aid-budget-and-the-10-aid-cut-20140514-2/">aid budget</a>. And it represents a small share of over A$3 billion that Australia spends on public <a href="http://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9260.pdf">fossil fuel subsidies</a> each year. </p>
<p>Even if the Fund’s initial target is met (which seems highly likely after the Brisbane summit), wealthy countries will need to ramp up their climate finance efforts further to achieve the US$100 billion-a-year target by 2020. But, as our <a href="https://theconversation.com/cutting-subsidies-to-fossil-fuels-could-help-australia-meet-its-financial-climate-commitments-4026">research</a> has shown, Australia could readily achieve a 2-3% share of the 2020 target by mobilising a range of public and private funding sources. </p>
<p>Assuming that Australia continues to maintain some level of climate change financing, it’s reasonable to expect that it will deliver its contribution through a range of channels. These channels could include Australia’s existing bilateral aid partnerships and smaller, special-purpose multilateral funds. </p>
<p>But if it refuses to back the Fund altogether, Australia would miss the chance to stimulate much larger investments from a modest public outlay.</p>
<p>Other wealthy countries of various political persuasions have concluded that it makes more sense to support the Fund than to snipe at it from the margins. Australia should not turn its back on a credible and important institution that it and many other countries have worked hard to build.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34308/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Pickering has previously consulted for the Australian Government on climate finance through the Australian National University. The 2011 working paper mentioned in the article was supported by World Vision Australia, the Australian Conservation Foundation and The Climate Institute.</span></em></p>The G20 summit in Brisbane has put the pressure on Australia to boost its action on climate change not just at home but also internationally through a new UN-backed fund. The summit yielded major pledges…Jonathan Pickering, Visiting Fellow, Development Policy Centre, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/320172014-09-28T19:16:42Z2014-09-28T19:16:42ZJoe Hockey and the G20 headed for promise fatigue<p>Governments are notorious for missing targets. Look no further than <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/france-gives-up-on-deficit-target-1407996597">France</a> or <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-28/spain-misses-2013-budget-deficit-goal-as-eu-calls-for-more-cuts.html">Spain’s</a> recent fiscal calumny, despite the European Union’s <a href="http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/eaec/html/excessive.en.html">excessive deficit procedure.</a></p>
<p>Closer to home, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is no better. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) <a href="http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/06/01/a-critical-look-at-the-asean-economic-community-scorecard/">scorecard</a> for 2008–11 showed that member countries fulfilled only 66% of their liberalisation measures.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.philstar.com/business/2014/03/23/1303947/asean-econ-integration-not-likely-2015-adb">AEC will not hit its targets</a> in 2015 either. Member governments have dragged their feet, meaning ASEAN will not – for now – be a genuinely free market, as impediments to the movement of goods, services, capital and labour remain.</p>
<p>And even the US <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323854904578264043966413864">missed its Basel III bank capital targets</a> in 2013, despite a G20 agreement on a December 31 deadline.</p>
<h2>The gap between promise and reality</h2>
<p>The problem is that countries can produce all manner of programs and legislation, but ultimately fall short of their objectives due to an “implementation deficit”. This means the procedures or regulations are in place to deliver policy implementation, but states, administrators or regulators do not enforce compliance sufficiently. </p>
<p>Think of a city of 10 million making a commitment to catching and fining drivers for speeding … and then installing only 30 speed cameras. That’s an implementation deficit. Or an expectations-capabilities gap, if you prefer.</p>
<p>Following the inauguration of the G20 in 1999, the world’s largest economies have established targets across a range of policy areas, including investment, credit access, trade, tax avoidance, clean technology, job creation and education. </p>
<p>Long-term and youth unemployment have emerged as deep-seated problems since the GFC. Consequently, the G20 affirmed at the July 2013 Moscow G20 labour ministerial that it would seek to revitalise labour markets via a tranche of reforms. To gauge progress, the International Organisation of Employers (IOE) and the Business and Industry Advisory Committee to the OECD (BIAC) released a <a href="http://www.businessnz.org.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2014/g20-melbourne-september-2014">report</a> in September 2014, tracking G20 member countries’ implementation of labour market reform commitments.</p>
<p>The IOE-BIAC survey obtained mixed results. Fully 25% of countries did not follow through on labour market reform following the Moscow ministerial. In some cases, a number of countries went backwards. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59758/original/vytjvm9f-1411443289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59758/original/vytjvm9f-1411443289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59758/original/vytjvm9f-1411443289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59758/original/vytjvm9f-1411443289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59758/original/vytjvm9f-1411443289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59758/original/vytjvm9f-1411443289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59758/original/vytjvm9f-1411443289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>The labour market reforms relate to widening participation, apprenticeships, education investments, youth training and mature worker employment incentives for employers, public/private participation in training programs and encouraging girls and women to enter the workforce by increasing social protection (child care, parental leave), particularly for poorer households.</p>
<p>So labour programs have been implemented unevenly. But how successful have the G20 countries been in achieving their objectives in other policy areas? </p>
<p>Since 1996, independent analysis at the <a href="http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/evaluations/#2014">G8 Information Centre</a> at the University of Toronto has monitored how effectively the G8 and G20 have delivered upon their summit commitments. </p>
<p>How does it work? Countries are named and shamed. Scoring operates on a tripartite scale: +1 for “full compliance”; 0 for “partial compliance” and -1 for “lack of compliance”.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/compliance/2013stpetersburg-interim/index.html">evaluation report</a> following the St. Petersburg G20 summit (2013) gives a broad outline of how the G20 stacks up: who’s performing; who’s under-performing; and who’s merely treading water.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59841/original/26c49j56-1411525997.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59841/original/26c49j56-1411525997.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59841/original/26c49j56-1411525997.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59841/original/26c49j56-1411525997.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59841/original/26c49j56-1411525997.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=972&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59841/original/26c49j56-1411525997.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=972&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59841/original/26c49j56-1411525997.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=972&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>So, how did we do?</p>
<p>To be scrupulously fair, bear in mind that many of the commitments of the Australian government were made under the ALP government prior to, and during, the September 2013 St. Petersburg summit. However, the evaluations also consider how the Coalition government has responded to, or amended, extant commitments, since taking office. It’s important to note that we can’t hold an incoming government to policies or expenditures it did not approve and was not a party to.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59888/original/xzbf6y77-1411542866.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59888/original/xzbf6y77-1411542866.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59888/original/xzbf6y77-1411542866.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59888/original/xzbf6y77-1411542866.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59888/original/xzbf6y77-1411542866.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59888/original/xzbf6y77-1411542866.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59888/original/xzbf6y77-1411542866.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<h2>Australia’s performance: a mixed bag</h2>
<p>In some respects, Australia’s record of implementation is like a curate’s egg: good in parts; rotten in others. But across a range of programs, it looks positively like a cow on ice. There are no prizes for guessing in which policy areas the Great Southern Land has slipped up.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59889/original/jrzw59zv-1411542972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59889/original/jrzw59zv-1411542972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59889/original/jrzw59zv-1411542972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59889/original/jrzw59zv-1411542972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59889/original/jrzw59zv-1411542972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59889/original/jrzw59zv-1411542972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59889/original/jrzw59zv-1411542972.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>Vocational training programs</strong></p>
<p>Australia scored a big, fat zero in this category. That puts up in the same corner as Indonesia, China, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and the US. The main criticisms were that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Australia has only partially complied with its country-specific commitment to provide significant additional funding for schools… Although Australia has also announced further funding for higher education, it has also announced the end of further funding under the Education Investment Fund for the foreseeable future.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In this policy area, Australia is judged to have only “partially adhered” to its commitments. Not a good start.</p>
<p><strong>Tax compliance and tax avoidance</strong></p>
<p>No backsliding, but much paper shuffling in these two categories. More than half the G20 received a 0 for “partial compliance” in tax compliance. The G7 plus Argentina and India were the best performers, but more than the half the G20 delivered less than sterling performances. </p>
<p>Some of the worst offenders in the profit shifting and transfer pricing business are not even G20 members. Yes, I’m looking at you Belgium, Ireland, Liechtenstein and the Netherlands. </p>
<p>In Australia’s case, the compliance report canvasses the mining tax (and the paucity of revenue raised) and the repeal of the Mineral Resources Rent Tax. It also notes the additional resources accorded the ATO to target high-wealth individuals who engage in unlawful tax avoidance.</p>
<p><strong>Job Creation</strong></p>
<p>All G20 countries received a +1 for this category, with the exception of Argentina (0) and Saudi Arabia (-1). Australia received a +1 for taking steps “to create formal jobs.” The Coalition’s programs with financial backing, namely, the Job Commitment Bonus; Take Up a Job Program; the Tasmanian Jobs Program; and the Seniors Employment Incentive Payment, were singled out by evaluators.</p>
<p>That gets Australia a +1 for minimising tax avoidance. Indeed, Australia is lauded as a “pioneer” in tackling this thorny policy area.</p>
<p>My ATO contacts tell me that they’re also seriously targeting corporations engaging in egregious forms of transfer pricing, following legislation passed in recent years. </p>
<p>*<em>Clean energy
*</em>
From hero to zero in this area. Repeal of the Clean Energy Act, together with funding cuts for the Australian Renewable Energy Agency appear to be the main culprits. In addition, the repeal of the emissions trading mechanism led to a final evaluation of “partial compliance.” That places Australia in the same league as Canada, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Turkey. Not a very good league, either.</p>
<p><strong>Credit access</strong></p>
<p>An interesting category. No one scores well. Except the US, UK and Russia. Now that’s an odd ménage à trois. </p>
<p>The criteria for improving access to credit includes support for small businesses and individuals, more loans and more transparency for consumers and enterprises, so they are more fully informed of their credit rights and responsibilities.</p>
<p>Australia already has a range of programs in place, but has not taken many recent steps to improve credit access (try getting a car loan or mortgage if you’re a sole trader running your own small business, for instance. You. Are. Not. Creditworthy). For these reasons, Australia receives a 0.</p>
<p>Dodgy financial advisers may take some, er, credit for this.</p>
<p><strong>Labour policies</strong></p>
<p>The Coalition is accorded much credit in this category, as the report cites a number of 2014 initiatives. “Australia has taken actions to combat unemployment and foster the creation of decent work and quality jobs, including the actions directly aimed at under-represented and vulnerable groups.”</p>
<p>No mention of the collapse of the car industry, public sector retrenchment, white-collar mining redundancies or submarine offshoring. The news may not have reached Toronto yet. Score: +1.</p>
<p><strong>Climate change</strong></p>
<p>We’ll conclude with the most contentious area. Even as the UN Climate Change conference meets in New York, Australia has proffered no new initiatives in this area.</p>
<p>However, Canberra is no solo artist in this category. Ten members of the G20 are charged with foot-dragging and score a resounding -1. It’s also the emerging economies (China, Turkey, Mexico) and resource-rich countries (Australia, Canada and Russia) that are guilty as charged.</p>
<p>Adding fuel to the fire, Australia has openly baulked at living up to the G20’s commitment to the Green Climate Fund, which is scheduled to be capitalised and operationalised by Kyoto Protocol signatories. But the evaluators’ verdict is stern: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Australia has failed to comply with its commitment to support the operationalization of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) through a failure to pledge any financial contribution.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The road to Brisbane</h2>
<p>Treasurer Hockey has declared his priority for the Brisbane G20 summit is <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/hockey-looking-for-g20-breakthroughs/story-fn3dxiwe-1227064462902?nk=efc589e93b4ebbe27f18f98af66aa999">attacking corporate profit shifting</a>, which has seriously eroded the revenue side of the G20’s taxation base, known as “base erosion and profit shifting” (BEPS). </p>
<p>Briefings I’ve received in this area do not suggest to me that G5 countries (US, Japan, Germany, France and the UK) have approached this problem with sufficient seriousness (in fact, G20 diplomats will not even discuss the subject). China, too, haemorrhages capital, in the form of <a href="http://www.gfintegrity.org/report/illicit-financial-flows-from-china-and-the-role-of-trade-misinvoicing/">illicit capital outflows</a>, but appears either unwilling or unable to address the problem head-on.</p>
<p>Treasurer Hockey may be well-intentioned and sincere about tackling this problem. But I suspect he will find few leaders willing to listen, let alone act.</p>
<p>But Hockey is right that the time to tackle this problem is long overdue. It’s a critical area of global public policy that continues to fester away, as countries bleed tens of billions in taxation revenues.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32017/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Remy Davison's Chair is funded by the EU Commission.</span></em></p>Governments are notorious for missing targets. Look no further than France or Spain’s recent fiscal calumny, despite the European Union’s excessive deficit procedure. Closer to home, the Association of…Remy Davison, Jean Monnet Chair in Politics and Economics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/321182014-09-24T20:28:09Z2014-09-24T20:28:09ZA view from the 2014 UN Climate Summit in New York<p>The 2014 UN Climate Summit has wrapped up in New York. What has progressed and what big challenges remain in the run up to and beyond the Paris negotiations in December 2015?</p>
<p>Secretary General of the UN, <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/05/Climate-Summit-main_FINAL-PR_REVISED.pdf">Ban Ki-moon</a>, convened this meeting of “Heads of State” over a year before the Paris negotiations, which aim to produce an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>The New York summit intended to build momentum for an ambitious binding agreement and to encourage action now. This meeting is additional to the usual climate negotiation cycle, and reflects on some “lessons learned” from the <a href="http://unfccc.int/meetings/copenhagen_dec_2009/meeting/6295.php">Copenhagen Climate Summit</a> in 2009 where too much was left too late for success.</p>
<p>I attended the summit meetings from the University of Melbourne. Momentum is building. Some significant actions were announced. </p>
<p>The US and China, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-report-emissions-will-hit-new-heights-in-2014-31834">world’s biggest emitters</a> of carbon pollution, both called for an ambitious binding agreement from Paris, consistent with their calls to action at <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-other-world-game-reporting-from-international-climate-talks-28042">last June’s Bonn</a> UN Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations. </p>
<p>Importantly they signalled further ambition. <a href="http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/4628014/china_english.pdf">China has committed</a> to cut its carbon intensity by 40 to 45% by 2020 over 2005 levels and signalled they may consider peaking and then reducing their emissions as soon as possible. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/23/remarks-president-un-climate-change-summit">President Obama said</a> the US will take a leadership role in the negotiations. He noted the US recognises its role in creating this problem and their responsibility to solve it.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Marshall Islands poet Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner presented this poem at the opening of the summit.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Pledges made</h2>
<p>The Secretary General launched an initiative to mobilise US$200 billion of private and public funds by the end of 2015 to <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/05/FINANCING-PR-REVISED.pdf">stimulate green growth</a> and support efforts to address climate damage, particularly in poorer countries. This is important to build the confidence of poorer nations who are and will be hard hit by increasingly extreme weather. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/05/Climate-Summit-main_FINAL-PR_REVISED.pdf">Significant announcements</a> were also made to scale up <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/05/RENEWABLES-PR.pdf">renewable energy projects</a>, <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/05/ENERGY-EFFICIENCY-PR.pdf">energy efficiency efforts</a>, 28 governments agreed for an <a href="http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2371717/world-pledges-to-end-deforestation-by-2030">end to forest loss by 2030</a>, 2,000 mayors signed a compact to <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/05/CITIES-PR.pdf">strengthen city emission reduction targets</a> and actions, and to promote <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/05/AGRICULTURE-PR.pdf">Climate-Smart Agriculture</a> to 500 million farmers. Some or all of these elements could be picked in ambitious agreements of those willing to act and linked to a binding consensus Paris agreement.</p>
<p>Germany will go <a href="http://mashable.com/2014/09/23/un-climate-summit-country-promises-map/?utm_medium=feed&utm_source=rss">carbon neutral by 2050</a> flagging an important opportunity for a mid century decarbonisation target in a Paris agreement. </p>
<p>David Cameron, Prime Minister of the still United Kingdom said the UK “is on track to cut emissions by 80% by 2050”. </p>
<p>President of the World Bank, Jim Yong Kim, noted that 73 governments representing 52% of global GDP support a global price on carbon. Emissions trading schemes are gaining momentum and Australia will need to revisit this needed policy initiative as soon as possible.</p>
<h2>Australia’s absence noted</h2>
<p>Underlining the importance and urgency of leadership, President Obama said “climate change will define the coming century more than any other issue”. He said “we are the first generation to feel the impacts of climate change and the last generation that can do anything about it”.</p>
<p>Which leaders were present, and which weren’t highlights the strengths and weaknesses of current leadership. President Obama and about another 120 “Heads of State” were present. About 35 were not. These included India, China, and Australia. </p>
<p>India and China are cautious. They are calling for more ambition to reduce emissions from developed countries, including pre 2020 through ratification of the 2nd Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol and stronger post 2020 targets and funding.</p>
<p>While it was good that Australian’s foreign minister Julie Bishop was present and spoke, the absence of prime minister Tony Abbott was notable. Government delegations and international bodies asked me repeatedly why a wealthy country like Australia is sending signals that it is placing a lower priority on needed international action at this crucial time.</p>
<h2>Landmark reports</h2>
<p>In the week leading unto the summit two large bodies of economic analyses were released. One, the “<a href="http://unsdsn.org/what-we-do/deep-decarbonization-pathways/">Pathways to Deep De-carbonizaton</a>” project spearheaded by Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University, looked at economic pathways to achieve carbon neutral countries by 2050. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://newclimateeconomy.report/">other</a>, steered by Lord Stern of the London School of Economics, looked at pathways leading to a new climate economy before 2020.</p>
<p>They both tell the same important new story. Ambitious climate action is achievable and can stimulate growth and jobs with appropriate policies and investment. In fact development that generates high levels of carbon pollution is increasingly holding back current and future prosperity.</p>
<h2>Climate action on the streets</h2>
<p>Finally, a <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/thousands-attend-peoples-climate-march-in-new-york-city-1411324590">huge march</a> in New York city on Sunday — with nearly 400,000 attendees — symbolised rapidly growing public hunger for action around the world. The marchers came from all walks of life including leaders of governments and even the Secretary General himself!</p>
<p>Lots of pitfalls remain between now and Paris. Currently country commitments to cut emissions fall short of the action needed to achieve the agreed goal of keeping warming below an average of 2 degrees C. There is not enough support on the table yet to enable a rapid and fair transition to clean economies. </p>
<p>And as seen at this summit, most countries are holding their negotiating cards close to their chest prior to March 2015, when they will make submissions for post-2020 commitments to reduce emissions. </p>
<p>The international analyses on climate science, social and environmental impact, and economic opportunity are largely compelling. At the end of the day, the positions of key countries including China, the US, India, Europe, Brazil, South Africa and others including maybe Australia will make or break Paris. </p>
<p>Are the analyses, communications, public, and political engagements strong enough in and with these nations to enable them to support a safer, sustainable, prosperous and fairer future from the clear and present great danger we have created? Only time will tell. </p>
<p><em>Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/mapping-global-carbon-emissions-32040">Mapping global carbon emissions</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32118/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Henry receives funding from the Australian Conservation Foundation. He is a former CEO of the Foundation.</span></em></p>The 2014 UN Climate Summit has wrapped up in New York. What has progressed and what big challenges remain in the run up to and beyond the Paris negotiations in December 2015? Secretary General of the UN…Don Henry, Public Policy Fellow, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/319702014-09-23T20:41:33Z2014-09-23T20:41:33ZPledges can work, but it will take international law to fight climate change<p>Do we need a climate treaty, or could a simple political deal based on national pledges work just as well?</p>
<p>Conventional wisdom suggests that the only international climate deal worth having is one that is “legally-binding”. In other words, a treaty which binds states to their commitments under international law. </p>
<p>This wisdom is touted by academics, activists and politicians alike. Even Ban Ki-moon’s <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/">climate summit</a> this week is working towards a legal deal at the next major climate conference in Paris, 2015. </p>
<p>Whether simple national pledges could work instead is an important question to ask, since that is exactly where the negotiations are heading.</p>
<h2>A history of climate failure</h2>
<p>The climate negotiations have struggled on for 20 years now, with little to show in terms of actual emissions reductions. A key problem is that the negotiations are seeking a treaty-based outcome. Unfortunately, the world’s superpower and second largest emitter — the US — requires a two thirds majority vote in the politically-divided Senate to ratify an international treaty. </p>
<p>For climate change, this has proven to be impossible, as illustrated by the failure of the US to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/27/us/politics/obama-pursuing-climate-accord-in-lieu-of-treaty.html">recent article</a> in the New York Times highlighted that the Obama administration is attempting to craft a politically-binding “climate accord”. That is, a deal that would not be legally-binding and thus, would not require Senate ratification. </p>
<p>Instead it would be a system whereby countries put forward self-determined carbon reduction targets based on domestic legislation. These pledges would then be regularly reviewed, and hopefully, scaled up over time. The idea has been met with uproar. </p>
<p>But, is such an approach necessarily a bad idea?</p>
<h2>When politics trumps law</h2>
<p>Legal treaties are also slow and cumbersome affairs. The process of “ratification”, which happens after the actual agreement, can take anywhere up to and beyond five years. </p>
<p>By comparison, political “pledges” offer a number of theoretical advantages. First, because they don’t need ratification they can be agreed upon and implemented much more quickly. </p>
<p>Second, countries are not bound by their targets. So, they are more likely to take on ambitious commitments without any fear of being reprimanded for not meeting them.</p>
<p>Importantly, the model of pledge and review has had success previously: strong international action to combat and eliminate Tuberculosis (TB) was based on exactly this.</p>
<h2>What the climate fight can learn from tuberculosis</h2>
<p>At the 1991 World Health Assembly of the World Health Organisation (WHO) countries from around the world made a voluntary agreement to eliminate TB. </p>
<p>The WHO crafted a new plan of reaching a 70% detection rate and 85% cure rate for TB. While these suggestions were heeded, the end agreement decided that the targets for each country was a national decision. No top-down framework or form of international law was imposed. </p>
<p>While it may have been voluntary, it produced results. A <a href="http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/91355/1/9789241564656_eng.pdf">recent WHO report</a> notes that TB rates per capita and annual cases have been falling over the last decade and the mortality rate has declined by 40% since 1990. </p>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.237/abstract;jsessionid=EFD6C6A32C5F42A447A0F8D08D9D72D1.f03t02?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false">One report</a> argues that what both of these examples have in common, asides from their voluntary nature, was strong monitoring reporting and verification (or “MRV” as it is called in diplomatic speak). It meant that countries knew where they were succeeding or going wrong, and importantly they faced international pressure when they were not doing their fair share. </p>
<p>Countries care about their reputation; the threat of being an international pariah can be a powerful motivator.</p>
<p>Our past shows us that political pledges can often be just as good as legal contract, or at times, even better. Yet, every international issue has a distinctive character. Pledges have worked well for TB and some financial and security matters (such as the 1975 Helsinki Accords), but would it be sufficient for addressing climate change? </p>
<p>Unfortunately, I fear not.</p>
<h2>Climate change needs something stronger</h2>
<p>While Tuberculosis is similar in being a global issue with severe repercussions for human health, climate change is an altogether different kind of beast. </p>
<p>Tuberculosis had a relatively cost effective and easily implemented treatment, mitigating and adapting to climate change requires deep structural changes to our economy and society. Tuberculosis had a decent degree of political consensus around it, climate change is politically divisive and action runs against many vested interests, particularly the fossil fuel lobby. </p>
<p>Not to mention that countries such as ourselves and Canada have an unfortunate reputation for backtracking on our climate commitments. Thanks to Abbott and others, trust is now a scarce resource in the climate negotiations. </p>
<p>With all of this in mind, pledges just might not be adequate. Instead, when we look at the international response to issues with the same scope and depth as climate, they are treaties with strong enforcement.</p>
<p>The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has had a profound impact and reshaped global trade towards neoliberalism. It has done so by international law, underlined by a dispute settlement mechanism which makes use of trade restrictions. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/saving-the-ozone">Montreal Protocol</a> is the poster child for international environmental treaties since it quickly and effectively dealt with the problem of global ozone depletion. The ozone problem is the closest mimic we have to global warming, and it took a legal treaty with strong financial and trade-based carrots and sticks to deal with it. </p>
<p>The past shows us that intentional, transformational change is rarely driven by voluntary or egalitarian ideals. Instead, it is underpinned by mutual material incentives and coercion.</p>
<h2>Pledges are a start, but are not enough</h2>
<p>A pledge and review system will make a difference, and that may very well be the difference between 3 degrees in comparison to 4 or 5 degrees C of warming. And it offers a feasible and quick solution to get the US on board and move forward. </p>
<p>But existing national pledges are consistent <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/">with a 4</a>, or <a href="https://www.thepmr.org/system/files/documents/Low%20Carbon%20Economy%20Index%202013.pdf">even 6</a>, degrees C rise in temperature. It would be very risky to assume that international pressure would be enough to bridge the gap between pledges currently on the table and what is necessary. </p>
<p>Pledges would, in essence, be playing roulette with future generations. </p>
<p>Staying below 2 degrees will require a legal treaty with enforcement. The choice the world now faces is whether to accept a useful, yet likely insufficient, pledge based approach, or find a way of having a climate treaty without US ratification.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Kemp is affiliated with the Earth System Governance Project, Free University of Berlin and the Fenner School of Environment and Society..</span></em></p>Do we need a climate treaty, or could a simple political deal based on national pledges work just as well? Conventional wisdom suggests that the only international climate deal worth having is one that…Luke Kemp, PhD Candidate in International Relations and Environmental Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/320152014-09-23T01:04:15Z2014-09-23T01:04:15ZAustralia can get to zero carbon emissions, and grow the economy<p>Today more than 120 world leaders are gathered in New York for the <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/">Climate Leaders’ Summit</a>. With global emissions <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-report-emissions-will-hit-new-heights-in-2014-31834">continuing to rise</a>, it is easy to be pessimistic. </p>
<p>But <a href="http://www.climateworksaustralia.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/pathways_to_deep_decarbonisation_in_2050_initial_report_0.pdf">new research</a> released today shows that it is getting easier to achieve a very low emissions future for all major countries. Australia could go to zero net emissions by 2050, without compromising prosperity and with new economic opportunities if the world goes low carbon.</p>
<h2>Deep Decarbonisation Pathways</h2>
<p>The aim of international climate policy is to limit global warming to a maximum temperature rise of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century. This requires global emissions to more than halve by 2050, then continue toward net zero.</p>
<p>At the <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/">summit</a>, new research from 15 countries has been presented to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to give confidence to these world leaders that near-zero carbon energy systems are achievable by all the major economies by 2050.</p>
<p>Australia is one of those top 15 emitting countries. The others are Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, the UK and the USA. Together they account for 70% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>An interim report by the <a href="http://unsdsn.org/what-we-do/deep-decarbonization-pathways/">UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network</a> shows all 15 countries found ways to achieve near zero carbon electricity by 2050 while sustaining economic growth. </p>
<p>The Australian contribution is led by ClimateWorks and the Australian National University, and draws on modelling from the CSIRO and Victoria University’s Centre for Policy Studies.</p>
<h2>Australia’s pathway to a low carbon economy</h2>
<p>Our report published today shows the Australian options for deep decarbonisation of our economy while still maintaining economic prosperity, in a decarbonising world. The report, <a href="http://www.climateworksaustralia.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/pathways_to_deep_decarbonisation_in_2050_initial_report_0.pdf">Pathways to Deep Decarbonisation in 2050: How Australia can prosper in a low carbon world</a> finds that Australia can reach net zero emissions by 2050 while the economy continues to grow at a similar rate as today — 2.4% of GDP per year.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59735/original/xbhm7xmc-1411431783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59735/original/xbhm7xmc-1411431783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59735/original/xbhm7xmc-1411431783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59735/original/xbhm7xmc-1411431783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59735/original/xbhm7xmc-1411431783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59735/original/xbhm7xmc-1411431783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59735/original/xbhm7xmc-1411431783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59735/original/xbhm7xmc-1411431783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.climateworksaustralia.org/project/current-project/pathways-deep-decarbonisation-2050-how-australia-can-prosper-low-carbon">ClimateWorks Australia</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Not only can we reach net zero emissions by 2050, this can be achieved without major structural changes to the economy, and minimal impact on Australians’ lifestyles. Major technological transitions are needed in some industries and many activities, but no fundamental change to Australia’s economy is required.</p>
<p>Other recent work goes further than our analysis in identifying economic and social opportunities from cutting emissions. The <a href="http://newclimateeconomy.net/">New Climate Economy</a> project led by British economist Nick Stern points out a raft of policy options that will improve the quality of economic growth and help with climate change. Even the <a href="https://theconversation.com/stern-2-0-takes-climate-policy-analysis-to-a-new-level-of-exaggeration-31763">fiercest critics</a> of this report do not seem to dispute that many options to cut emissions have substantial co-benefits for local environments, communities, and government budgets.</p>
<h2>The pillars of decarbonisation</h2>
<p>Australia’s decarbonisation pathway relies on greatly improved energy efficiency across the economy, a nearly carbon free power system, and switching to low carbon energy sources in transport, buildings and industry. In addition to these three pillars that are common to all countries, Australia’s pathway also involves reducing non-energy emissions in industry and agriculture. </p>
<p>The illustrative pathway modelled in the report found ambitious energy efficiency in all sectors leads to a halving of the final energy intensity of the economy between now and 2050. </p>
<p>The report also outlines three scenarios for decarbonising the electricity system. In one scenario, electricity is solely supplied from renewable energy. The other two scenarios also include renewables with a mix of carbon capture and storage or nuclear power. </p>
<p>The remainder of fossil fuel use in the economy is shifted to either bioenergy or low emissions fuel such as gas where possible, particularly for freight and industry. The analysis also shows the potential to entirely offset any residual emissions by carbon forestry plantings.</p>
<h2>Action in economic sectors</h2>
<p>Some parts of the Australian economy have excellent opportunities to reduce emissions. </p>
<p>First and foremost, the electricity sector has multiple options available to reach near zero emissions. Taking the carbon out of electricity is the backbone of a decarbonisation strategy for Australia, and it is easier than in many other countries that lack Australia’s plentiful potential for renewable energy, as well as carbon capture and storage. </p>
<p>This can then flow through to emissions reduction in the buildings sector, given the relative ease to switch energy use in buildings to electricity. </p>
<p>Emissions from transport and industry are cut back substantially through energy efficiency and switching from fossil fuels to carbon-free electricity and biofuels or gas. It is not as easy in transport to switch to electric energy, so biofuels have an important role. </p>
<p>Non-energy emissions from industry are reduced through substituting with less emissions-intensive materials, process improvements and carbon capture and storage in some applications. </p>
<p>Agriculture emissions are reduced through best practice farming, but in some parts of agriculture opportunities to reduce emissions are limited, in particular from beef consumption, in substantial part for export. </p>
<p>Our report, based on new analysis by CSIRO, shows very large opportunities to sequester carbon in forestry. In our illustrative scenario, carbon sequestration increases over time to compensate for all remaining emissions at 2050.
In aggregate, the scenario meets the carbon budget identified by the <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/targets-and-progress-review-3">Climate Change Authority</a> as compatible with Australia’s contribution to a global 2 degrees C outcome.</p>
<h2>New international advantage</h2>
<p>If all countries take action to decarbonise their economies, Australia’s abundance of low carbon energy opportunities could provide us with a comparative advantage. Whether the global energy system is high carbon or low carbon, Australia can be an energy superpower. </p>
<p>Australia is rich in renewables and geological storage, key resources for decarbonised energy systems. This could be the basis of a renewed advantage in energy intensive industries for Australia. </p>
<p>Australia also has large gas reserves — a transition fuel — and uranium, which can fuel nuclear power — a key component in many countries’ decarbonisation strategies.</p>
<h2>Time to act</h2>
<p>Achieving deep emissions cuts requires a significant transition for Australia. The pathway identified is not a reconstruction of our economy, but it is a major upgrade of energy supply infrastructure and energy-using equipment and transport systems, along with rapid and large scale expansion of reforestation. </p>
<p>A successful low carbon transition requires a thorough understanding of the options, opportunities and challenges. It also needs long-term policy signals to encourage the investment decisions needed for a decarbonised economy. </p>
<p>A global effort is required to enable the world to reduce emissions, and indeed concerted global action is the frame of reference for our report. Australia must be ready to play its part, and to grasp the opportunities that can come. </p>
<p>Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and it is getting more urgent to turn the ship around. Thankfully, it is becoming clearer that a very low-carbon economy is possible and will not compromise economic growth. It is not about a trade-off between economy and environment, it is about synergies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32015/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>ClimateWorks Australia and ANU lead the Australian component of the United Nations' initiative, ‘Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project’. ClimateWorks and ANU have not received any UN funding, but have received some funding for the research from ARENA, the Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute, TransGrid, Accenture and the Mullum Trust. ClimateWorks is funded by philanthropy through The Myer Foundation with Monash University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Jotzo is in charge of grant funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian government. ClimateWorks Australia and ANU lead the Australian component of the UN ‘Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project’.
</span></em></p>Today more than 120 world leaders are gathered in New York for the Climate Leaders’ Summit. With global emissions continuing to rise, it is easy to be pessimistic. But new research released today shows…Anna Skarbek, Executive Director at ClimateWorks Australia, Monash UniversityFrank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/308682014-08-25T09:36:38Z2014-08-25T09:36:38ZRoss Garnaut: China to reach ‘peak coal’ for electricity by 2015<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57280/original/4b6v92ww-1408952207.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As early as 2015 China's use of thermal coal for electricity could peak. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bretarnett/97352331">Bret Arnett/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>China’s use of coal for electricity could peak as early as next year, then decline until 2020 in a turnaround of “global importance”, according to economist Ross Garnaut in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-energy-transition-effects-on-global-climate-and-sustainable-development-30883">lecture</a> presented at the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne. </p>
<p>The shift means the world has a much better chance of keeping global warming below 2 degrees C — the internationally-agreed guardrail against dangerous climate change. </p>
<p>Slowing economic growth, increasing energy efficiency and growth in low-carbon electricity sources are driving the trend.</p>
<p>The Chinese economy grew strongly between 2000 and 2011 by 11% each year, but has slowed to around 7% each year since. Combined with increasing energy efficiency, this is driving down growth in energy demand — to around 4% each year. </p>
<p>At the same time, low-emissions electricity sources — hydro, wind, nuclear, solar and gas — have grown strongly, by around 4% each year. Because these sources are cheaper to use than coal, this has led to a “dramatic decoupling” of coal from economic growth, said Garnaut.</p>
<p>Solar energy has recorded the fastest growth since 2010 — generation capacity of solar increased by over 140% between 2012 and 2013. But solar is difficult to predict, and Garnaut expects growth to slow up to 2020. Even so, low-carbon sources will continue to grow strongly until 2020.</p>
<p>Wind power grew by nearly 40% between 2012 and 2013, and is forecast to grow by 18% each year until 2020. Over the same period nuclear grew by 14% and hydro by nearly 5%, and both are expected to grow at similar rates each year until 2020. </p>
<p>Gas was more difficult to predict, due to uncertainty over domestic gas finds, but is forecast to grow by 25% each year. </p>
<p>“Non-coal sources of energy account for virtually all the growth in electricity demand,” Garnaut said. </p>
<p>While Garnaut based his “conservative” projections on the electricity sector, he said he would not be surprised to see total carbon emissions in China peak by 2020. “It makes it possible to think realistically about the world reaching a 2C target.”</p>
<p>While China would need to do more between 2020 and 2030, the projections suggest China has turned the corner. </p>
<p>Garnaut based his projections on targets and policies already in action. He acknowledged that vested interests in coal, as in Australia, could slow the transition from coal to other energy sources, but said that the new model for economic growth was currently winning. </p>
<p><em>You can read Ross Garnaut’s full lecture <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-energy-transition-effects-on-global-climate-and-sustainable-development-30883">here</a> on The Conversation</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/30868/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
China’s use of coal for electricity could peak as early as next year, then decline until 2020 in a turnaround of “global importance”, according to economist Ross Garnaut in a lecture presented at the Melbourne…James Whitmore, Deputy Editor: Arts + Culture, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/253912014-07-03T20:32:28Z2014-07-03T20:32:28ZWill the climate debate end up being fought in court?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52929/original/qyzpfrr2-1404355446.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could politicians and scientists in the future be charged with "climate negligence"?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/go_greener_oz/3046225225">Julie G/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Society generally has a clear idea of what constitutes a crime, and those in positions of power are usually held to very high standards. Politicians charged with making decisions on the needs of society are held accountable for unprofessional behaviour.</p>
<p>New South Wales Premier Barry O’Farrell, for example, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-16/nsw-premier-barry-ofarrell-to-resign-over-icac-grange-wine/5393478">chose to resign</a> in April over a “massive memory fail”, after initially denying he had received an expensive bottle of wine from an Australian Water Holdings executive.</p>
<p>Neglecting to take action can also be considered criminal. In the same way that doctors who fail to diagnose an illness may be charged with malpractice, politicians can face similar charges for failing to adequately do their jobs.</p>
<p>These crimes may seem more clear-cut – but what happens when it comes to accountability for environmental issues, and more specifically, climate change?</p>
<h2>Predicting disasters and legal risk</h2>
<p>When government action or inaction leads to the direct harm of citizens due to environmental risks and natural hazards, they should be held to account. </p>
<p>This logic saw residents of New Orleans sue the United States government for damages caused by flooding associated with Hurricane Katrina, after a federal judge ruled the US Army Corps of Engineers <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2009/nov/19/nation/na-katrina-flooding19">displayed gross negligence</a> by failing to maintain a shipping channel next to a levee protecting the city. </p>
<p>In another case in 2009, seven scientists and civil servants were <a href="http://theconversation.com/scientists-found-guilty-for-laquila-earthquake-deaths-but-why-10292">convicted of manslaughter</a> after failing to give adequate warning of an impending earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy, that killed 309 people. </p>
<p>We are yet to see if and how politicians and scientists will be held accountable for increased greenhouse gas emissions leading to climate change. But a recent area of legal development is arising in this area, known as <a href="http://www.brrmedia.com/event/117353/mark-baker-jones-special-counsel">climate legal risk</a>, defined as the risk of liability or adverse legal outcomes arising when the impacts of climate change (such as flooding, bushfire and coastal hazards) affect an organisation’s operations. </p>
<p>“Unacceptable impacts from predicted climate change” has been used to reject planning applications. In 2010 the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal <a href="http://www.thefifthestate.com.au/archives/9043/">rejected a proposal</a> to subdivide a coastal property for development due to predictions that the land would be inundated within a century. The case marked a critical point in planning law and sent an important message to coastal planning decision makers about the increasing relevance of climate-related flooding.</p>
<p>In another case brought to the courtrooms by environmentalist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Gray_(activist)">Pete Gray</a>, the <a href="http://www.lec.lawlink.nsw.gov.au/lec/index.html">Land and Environment Court of New South Wales</a> found that the approved expansion of the Anvil Hill Coal Mine had failed to properly assess the greenhouse gas pollution impacts of the future use of mined coal. </p>
<p>The most recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-health-ipcc-reports-emerging-risks-emerging-consensus-24213">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report</a> paints a bleak picture of what will happen if we continue to pump greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The risks of extreme weather, droughts, floods, cyclones and marine inundations are all significantly increased.</p>
<p>Currently, governments and mainstream politicians that openly dispute human-caused climate change are rare. What is far more prevalent is a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26824943">lack of meaningful action</a> in government to combat it.</p>
<p>But with the IPCC so clearly stating the need for action, there is now the very real risk that politicians, media outlets and scientists could face legal prosecution for their role in delaying action that could have saved properties, livelihoods and lives. </p>
<p>A broader international criminal framework identifying destruction of ecosystems, including through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, has been developed and termed “<a href="http://www.eradicatingecocide.com">ecocide</a>”, though it has yet to be legislated.</p>
<h2>Should scientists be held accountable for inaction?</h2>
<p>As the number of climate change related extreme events increase, we need to ask who should be held accountable for them. As we saw in L'Aquila, some believe that at least some of the responsibility falls on scientists. Perhaps it is the role of scientists to ensure that climate change warnings (such as those made by the IPCC) lead to actions like evacuation of natural disaster areas and meaningful policy change.</p>
<p>Scientists don’t have the power to make decisions in government or society. They are funded as researchers and experts, to advance knowledge and advise our elected officials. Scientists can only control what they say, and the urgency that they attach to it; not what is done with that advice. </p>
<p>But, like other people, scientists can be prone to hyperbole. Scientists have been <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/public-policy/Policy_Commissions/Communication-climate-science/Communication-climate-science-report/TIME_FOR_CHANGE_Final_Proof.pdf">criticised for overdramatising</a> the consequences of inaction with regards to climate change, which can be overwhelming and may lead to a paralysis of action - a situation termed “climate fatigue”. </p>
<p>Transforming scientific research into policy is a messy process. It requires a range of scientific, communication and change management skills, the combination of which most scientists do not possess, and perhaps should not be expected to. However as we have seen, individuals and groups can be held accountable for inaction that leads to disastrous outcomes, and neither climate scientists or policy makers are likely to get a free pass.</p>
<h2>Avoiding lawyers at 50 paces</h2>
<p>In most situations, legal action comes only as a last resort when all other avenues of communication have broken down. And so in the climate debate, lawyers at 50 paces may only further inflame and entrench positions.</p>
<p>The climate issue needs leadership, not recrimination. We need leadership from scientists who can move from proclaiming the problem into practical uptake of solutions. </p>
<p>Likewise, leadership is needed from elected officials, who need to start working with the scientific community they have supported to develop evidence-based policy. </p>
<p>We need <a href="https://theconversation.com/chief-scientist-urges-corporate-chiefs-to-show-leadership-on-climate-change-26404">leadership from industry</a>, to start engaging with the climate debate. And in the run up to the <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit2014/">United Nations Climate Summit</a> set for September 2014 in New York and further talks <a href="https://unfccc.int/meetings/unfccc_calendar/items/2655.php?year=2015">in Paris next year</a>, we need <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/04/23/3990450.htm">global leaders</a> to step up to help move society to the next phase of climate action.</p>
<p>In the future, it will not have been enough of a defence to say that climate change inaction was a result of lack of evidence. <a href="http://www.genengnews.com/gen-news-highlights/hillary-clinton-states-stand-on-biotech-and-climate-change/81250038/">We have the evidence and we know that we should act</a>. If we do nothing now, future generations may take a legal perspective on our actions, or lack of them, bringing to The Hague a retrospective crime against humanity – climate negligence.</p>
<p><em>The authors would like to acknowledge the valuable contribution of Tim Vines in discussion of the ideas behind this piece.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25391/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Lowe receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Caddy-Retalic is Director of the Australian Transect Network, a facility of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN). TERN receives funding from the Department of Education.</span></em></p>Society generally has a clear idea of what constitutes a crime, and those in positions of power are usually held to very high standards. Politicians charged with making decisions on the needs of society…Andrew Lowe, Professor of Plant Conservation Biology, University of AdelaideStefan Caddy-Retalic, Transect Ecologist, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/285472014-07-02T20:29:56Z2014-07-02T20:29:56ZAustralia’s coal industry needs to prepare for global climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52727/original/zwx6vfqh-1404193334.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Mount Thorley Warkworth mine in the Hunter Valley of New South Wales produces coal for both electricity and steel-making. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lockthegatealliance/13599250143/">Lock the Gate Alliance/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the recent midyear <a href="http://www.climatenetwork.org/sites/default/files/eco-june12.pdf">UN climate negotiations</a> in Bonn, an unprecedented 60 countries (including Germany) called for a total phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050, as part of a global agreement on climate change to be concluded in Paris in 2015. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, on tour in North America, Prime Minister Tony Abbott <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbott-lauds-coal-during-texas-speech-says-climate-change-shouldnt-limit-use-of-fossil-fuels/story-fncynjr2-1226954500305">declared that</a>:</p>
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<p>For many decades at least, coal will continue to fuel human progress as an affordable, dependable energy source for wealthy and developing countries alike. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>But Mr Abbott’s “coal forever” scenario is only likely if we fail to develop a global agreement to tackle climate change, which could come as soon as the end of next year in Paris. Such global action would dramatically reduce the use of fossil fuels over the coming decades, particularly coal for electricity production. </p>
<p>So, what is likely to happen to coal use and Australian coal exports in the coming decades?</p>
<h2>Energy and steel</h2>
<p>What happens to coal will depend on what the world does to address climate change. Any scenario that seriously addresses climate change will lead to reduced use of coal, particularly thermal/steam coal used to generate electricity.</p>
<p>Most of the world’s coal production goes to electricity generation — and 41% of the <a href="http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/">world’s electricity</a> comes from coal. But renewable energy substitutes are already available and increasing becoming <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/wind-at-parity-with-new-coal-in-india-solar-to-join-by-2018-hsbc-14836">competitive with coal</a>, even before significant policy measures to address climate change are introduced. In the coming decades, efforts to address climate change will likely dramatically reduce the use of coal for electricity. </p>
<p>Coal is also used for steel-making — 13% of <a href="http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/">global coal production</a> is used to produce 70% of the world’s steel. Substitutes for this coking coal are not so readily available and possibly carbon, capture and storage (CCS) may be required to reduce emissions. Recycling iron and steel — using electricity from renewable sources — may also play a part in cutting carbon emissions from coking coal.</p>
<h2>Climate action</h2>
<p>In its <a href="http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2013.pdf">2013 report</a>, the International Energy Agency modelled what impact climate action would have on the energy industry. In one scenario, using a relatively weak global climate policy (which had only a moderate chance of limiting warming to 2C), coal’s share of global energy output dropped to about half of current levels by 2035. </p>
<p>According to climate action group 350.org, 80% of already proven fossil fuel reserves will have to <a href="http://math.350.org/">remain unused</a> in order to limit warming to less than 2C above pre-industrial levels. The total phase-out of fossil fuel use by 2050 is also clearly a possible outcome of global climate agreement in Paris 2015. </p>
<p>The greatest reductions will likely come from coal. Oil and gas are more versatile fossil fuels, and produce less carbon emissions when burnt. To keep warming to less than 2C, more than 80% of the vast proven global coal reserves, including those in Australia, will need to remain in the ground. </p>
<h2>Good and bad news for Australian coal</h2>
<p>The only good news for Australia is that 40% of our <a href="http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/">current coal exports</a> are coking coal for steel-making. The lack of immediate substitutes for coking coal will likely mean that demand for coking coal will not fall away so rapidly as demand for coal for electricity generation, which is already weakening.</p>
<p>Exports make up a large proportion of Australia’s coal production — 80% of our coal for electricity, and 96% of our coal for steel-making. The bad news is that two of our three major markets, China and India, meet most of their demand from domestic coal production. </p>
<p>China produces over 90% of the coal is uses for electricity and 88% of its coking coal. India is a much smaller user of coal, using less than 20% of China’s consumption, but is slightly more dependent on imports. India currently producing 80% of its own steam coal and 56% of its coking coal. </p>
<p>The third major coal importing country, <a href="http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/">Japan is much more reliant</a> on imported coal than China or India for both steam and coking coal. If the world agrees to reduce fossil fuel use, China and India are likely to be able to meet most or all of their needs for steam coal domestically in coming decades and not rely on imports from Australia. </p>
<p><a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/wind-at-parity-with-new-coal-in-india-solar-to-join-by-2018-hsbc-14836">Other evidence</a> indicates that that the incentives provided to switch away from fossil fuel power generation for these countries in a global climate change agreement do not need to be that high. Wind power is already competitive with coal fired power in India and solar is expected to be competitive within a few years.</p>
<p>Instead of repealing the carbon price this week, our newly elected senators should be working out additional policies and measures to further reduce Australia’s reliance on coal mining both domestically and for exports. </p>
<p>The healthiest scenario for the planet is a very unhealthy scenario for Australia’s coal — particularly coal for electricity generation. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian McGregor has volunteered with the Australian Greens to hand out how to vote material on polling days.</span></em></p>At the recent midyear UN climate negotiations in Bonn, an unprecedented 60 countries (including Germany) called for a total phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050, as part of a global agreement on climate change…Ian McGregor, Lecturer in Management, UTS Business School, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.