tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/magical-thinking-14014/articlesMagical thinking – The Conversation2023-05-10T16:31:19Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2051702023-05-10T16:31:19Z2023-05-10T16:31:19ZPlastic rats and playoff beards: Superstitious behaviours in hockey fans and players increase during the playoffs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525391/original/file-20230510-19-ghb0bb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C3000%2C1953&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Toronto Maple Leafs fans and players celebrate a goal during the second round playoff series against the Florida Panthers.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Michael Laughlin/AP Photo)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/plastic-rats-and-playoff-beards--superstitious-behaviours-in-hockey-fans-and-players-increase-during-the-playoffs" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As the Toronto Maple Leafs recently limped to a third straight defeat to the Florida Panthers, Leafs fans experienced the dreaded <a href="https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Journal/Issues/2022/05/09/Closing-Shot/Closing-Shot.aspx">rat trick</a>. In this ritual, Panthers fans throw plastic rats onto the ice to summon the energy of past, unexpected successes.</p>
<p>A group of extraterrestrials watching this event might be puzzled to see hundreds of otherwise normal people hurling mass-produced rodents at a few dozen tired men with unkempt facial hair. If, as sport fans, we set our past experiences to the side, these superstitions that are so pervasive in sport — especially when the games carry the most weight — really make very little objective sense.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">TSN looks at the history of the ‘rat trick,’ when Florida Panthers fans throw plastic rats onto the ice after games.</span></figcaption>
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<p>As an ardent sport fan for most of my life — and someone who may or may not have participated in fan rituals — I’m in no position to judge. And although I am not a particularly superstitious person overall, I’ve engaged in my fair share of sport-related irrationality as both a participant and a spectator. </p>
<p>For much of my early life, I saw sport superstition as part of fandom. I have now been studying <a href="https://www.uwindsor.ca/kinesiology/755/dr-terry-eddy">sport fans for about 15 years</a>, and if I’ve learned one thing, it’s this: rationality and objectivity generally do not apply in sports fandom.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/leafs-and-oilers-in-the-nhl-playoffs-can-i-cheer-on-a-team-i-usually-hate-204893">Leafs and Oilers in the NHL playoffs: Can I cheer on a team I usually hate?</a>
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<h2>The superstitious athlete</h2>
<p>Although all sports have their share of superstitious participants, hockey players have certainly earned their <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/news/the-nhls-10-weirdest-rituals-and-superstitions">reputation for being at the high end of the range</a>. </p>
<p>As I alluded to earlier, <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/32804681/playoff-beards-hockey-wackiest-tradition">playoff beards become ubiquitous among players at this time of year</a>. This seemingly age-old tradition only dates back to the early 1980s, but has become ingrained in hockey culture among amateurs and professionals alike. </p>
<p>Baseball players are certainly not to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1207/s15324834basp2701_7">be outdone as a superstitious group</a> — for example, it’s taboo to talk about a no-hitter. <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097815/">In the 1989 movie <em>Major League</em></a>, the Cuban baseball player Pedro Cerrano (played by Dennis Haysbert) used supernatural means to magic his bat. As contrived as the character might have appeared to the average person, most baseball fans would believe that such a player could (and probably does) exist.</p>
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<p>For some athletes, superstitions aren’t just meaningless, irrational behaviours; <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/sjop.12301">they can have positive effects on mental state and performance</a>. Superstitions can boost confidence and sense of control, as well as reduce anxiety — really, it’s the routine that prepares the body and mind for the performance, rather than the specific behaviour itself. </p>
<p>Superstitions may not be as readily prescribed by sport psychologists as meditation or visualization, but for some athletes, they can serve a similar purpose.</p>
<h2>Fan superstitions</h2>
<p>Like athletes, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smr.2017.12.001">fans also tend to exhibit numerous superstitious behaviours</a> both at the game and in other locations, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.740645">either before or during the game</a>. These superstitions can be group-based — like the rat trick — or personal. </p>
<p>Some of the most common personal behaviours include wearing certain articles of clothing (special underwear and socks are particularly popular), sitting in a particular place and eating or drinking specific foods. </p>
<p>But if we can understand why athletes succumb to superstition based on actual benefits, how can we justify these behaviours among fans? They have no direct involvement in the game. Well, the benefits for fans are not actually that different from those for athletes.</p>
<h2>Handling uncertainty</h2>
<p>In general, humans <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smr.2017.12.001">don’t handle uncertainty very well</a>. We crave order in our lives, and fundamentally need to explain the underlying causes of important events or outcomes. </p>
<p>In the absence of concrete answers, we start to make up explanations of our own — <a href="https://www.proquest.com/docview/1622327285?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true">these are known as attributions</a>. We especially tend to attribute sporting success to factors that are under our control, like player and coach performance or fan involvement. And we attribute failure to things beyond our control, such as the other team’s performance, referees’ actions or fate.</p>
<p>Superstitions help us feel like we have some control over the uncontrollable. There have only been a handful of academic studies on fan superstition, but the findings tend to be consistent. By engaging in superstitions, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/specials/superfan-the-nav-bhatia-story-1.6235377">fans feel as if they’re doing their part to help the team</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525392/original/file-20230510-15-a0x73r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a man in the stands holds a sign reading I'M A CANIAC FROM N.J." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525392/original/file-20230510-15-a0x73r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525392/original/file-20230510-15-a0x73r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525392/original/file-20230510-15-a0x73r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525392/original/file-20230510-15-a0x73r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525392/original/file-20230510-15-a0x73r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525392/original/file-20230510-15-a0x73r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/525392/original/file-20230510-15-a0x73r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A Carolina Hurricanes fan holds a sign following the Hurricanes’ win over the New Jersey Devils in Game 2 of the second-round playoff series.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker)</span></span>
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<p>When the team wins, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smr.2017.12.001">being involved generates an even more positive mood</a>, likely due to the perceived satisfaction of helping the team. On the other hand, carrying out the appropriate superstitions can have positive effects on mood even after a loss, possibly because the fan feels as though they did everything they could to help the team. Superstitions can also reduce the stress associated with watching a game among avid fans. </p>
<p>It’s worth pointing out that “fair-weather fans,” who only support the team when it’s doing well, generally aren’t doing this stuff — <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2013-16583-002">the team has to be very important to us</a> in order for us to be compelled to engage in superstitions. </p>
<p>Academic research refers to these passionate supporters as “highly identified fans,” because the fan role is a central and important part of that person’s identity and self-concept. As such, their sport fandom is closely tied to their self-esteem, which is why watching sports is such a heavily invested, emotional experience for these highly identified fans (myself included). </p>
<p>Spectator sport is one of the most unpredictable things in the world, so we have a desire to combat this uncertainty and control what’s happening by any means possible, rational or otherwise.</p>
<h2>During playoff time, be kind</h2>
<p>Sport superstitions make very little sense to non-sport fans, because they haven’t experienced the intensity of emotions and mental gymnastics that come with being a highly identified fan. </p>
<p>It’s more than a pastime, it’s a big part of who we are and how we see ourselves. </p>
<p>And to anyone who couldn’t care less about the playoffs, please just indulge the sport fans in your life and let them do whatever it is that makes them feel better at this time of year. That includes you, Mrs. Eddy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Eddy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Superstitions have a role in helping hockey fans and players feel more in control of the game.Terry Eddy, Associate Professor, Sport Management, University of WindsorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2040252023-04-21T00:15:02Z2023-04-21T00:15:02ZPlagues, poisons and magical thinking – how COVID lab leak hysteria could be straight from the Middle Ages<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521740/original/file-20230419-20-yw3j9w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C4867%2C3237&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID “lab leak” story clearly isn’t going away soon. The theory that the pandemic began with an accidental release of the virus from a lab in Wuhan recurs like clockwork – most recently in a <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/new-report-senate-republicans-doubles-covid-lab-leak/story?id=98656740">report from Senate Republicans</a> in the US this week.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, the US Department of Energy and FBI <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/us-canada/300819839/fbi-joins-us-energy-department-in-endorsing-covid-lab-leak-theory">endorsed the same theory</a>. It’s a very modern story – but as medievalists, we can tell you we’ve been here before, and we should be wary of simple narratives of blame. </p>
<p>The lab leak theory remains a <a href="https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2023.03.08-Statement-of-Dr.-Robert-R-Redfield88.pdf">legitimate hypothesis to investigate</a>. Yet much of the discussion surrounding it shows evidence of the “contagion effect” of magical thinking – the belief that a visible effect is somehow contaminated by a hidden essence linked to its origin. </p>
<p>The anxieties still <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/28/lab-leak-natural-spillover-how-origins-covid-us-political-debate">whirling in conservative media</a> echo the escalating accusations of well-poisoning in medieval Europe. These exploded into mass violence in the mid-14th century, and survive in later legends about witches’ ability to concoct poisonous agents. </p>
<p>In an age of antibiotics and scientific explanations, we like to consider ourselves more advanced than our forebears. But our research into the early history of conspiracy theories and xenophobia tells a more complicated story about how magical thinking continues to shape our response to disasters like the pandemic.</p>
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<h2>Poisonous powders and plagues</h2>
<p>Fears of contagion often derive from anxieties about unknown or poorly understood aspects of disease. Who among us never felt compelled to disinfect our groceries or mail during the early months of the pandemic? </p>
<p>Our current research, “The First Era of Fake News: Witch-Hunting, Antisemitism and Islamophobia”, examines how myths that emerged during the Middle Ages are still being used to justify modern atrocities. It shows how the contagion effect also leads to scapegoating and faulty attributions of blame. The threat of disease is layered onto suspicious “others” – such as Jews during the Middle Ages, or Chinese labs today. </p>
<p>When Jews were accused of poisoning wells to cause outbreaks of plague in 1348-49, the “contagion” associated with them was both literal and metaphorical. Jews were accused of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673699903963?via%3Dihub">concocting poisonous powders</a> from spiders, toads and human remains – the ingredients form a running list of items invoking disgust and fear of infection. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-why-lab-leak-theory-is-back-despite-little-new-evidence-162215">COVID-19: why lab-leak theory is back despite little new evidence</a>
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<p>But Jews were also considered suspicious simply because they were Jews – exotic religious outsiders who might have connections with coreligionists in other cities, or who might travel far from home. Jews were feared to contaminate Christian communities by their very presence, and medieval preachers weren’t shy about saying so. </p>
<p>We can call this kind of contagion “magical” – fear that simple contact with a mistrusted outsider somehow makes us vulnerable to influences or activities we do not understand. We should take heed: in the case of well-poisoning accusations, those fears led to the wholesale slaughter of Jewish communities in Central Europe. </p>
<p>Individual Jews were tortured into elaborate confessions of guilt, then murdered along with their communities. They were blamed for the plague’s spread and devastation. The contagion effect easily convinced medieval Christians that a terrible disease must originate with people already considered suspicious.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521753/original/file-20230419-14-eipspl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521753/original/file-20230419-14-eipspl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521753/original/file-20230419-14-eipspl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521753/original/file-20230419-14-eipspl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521753/original/file-20230419-14-eipspl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521753/original/file-20230419-14-eipspl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521753/original/file-20230419-14-eipspl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fear and superstition: an etching depicts medieval flagellants praying for protection against the plague.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
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<h2>Conspiracy and Christianity</h2>
<p>There are similar fears of magical contagion in theories about the lab leak being the pandemic’s origin. Blame is a powerful motivator. We continue to be swayed by the idea that some specific agency must be responsible, rather than unpredictable processes of virus mutation. </p>
<p>Even China has embraced this logic, with various suggestions made about the virus emerging somewhere (anywhere) outside its borders. The contagion effect has also been manipulated for political advantage. Donald Trump’s early fear mongering about a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-chinese-virus-the-politics-of-naming-136796">China virus</a>” was a convenient distraction from the failures of his own administration in the early days of the pandemic. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/young-people-may-be-more-likely-to-believe-in-conspiracy-theories-that-deny-covid-facts-heres-how-to-respond-188318">Young people may be more likely to believe in conspiracy theories that deny COVID facts – here's how to respond</a>
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<p>Like medieval civic leaders, it was easier for some politicians to assuage the rage and anxiety of people with stories of blame than by acknowledging failures and unknowns.</p>
<p>There are bad as well as good reasons to investigate the lab-leak hypothesis. Using the theory as a way to target and punish enemies is a bad reason. So is the <em>a priori</em> assumption that nefarious intentions lie somewhere behind every major event, a cornerstone of <a href="http://sks.to/conspiracy">conspiratorial thinking both ancient and modern</a>. </p>
<p>We should be on the alert for this style of thinking. It tends to get people killed. When Jews were accused of poisoning wells in medieval Europe, they were <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315521091-5/pestis-manufacta-jon-arrizabalaga">believed by many</a> to be doing so “in order to destroy and eradicate the whole Christian religion”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-only-now-revealed-crucial-covid-19-origins-data-earlier-disclosure-may-have-saved-us-3-years-of-political-argy-bargy-202344">China's only now revealed crucial COVID-19 origins data. Earlier disclosure may have saved us 3 years of political argy-bargy</a>
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<h2>Viral magical thinking</h2>
<p>In some political quarters, the lab-leak theory operates as the thin edge of a similar civilisational struggle, with the Chinese as the villains working in secret on various schemes to dominate or destroy Western democracies. </p>
<p>Such accusations attempt to impose coherence on a profoundly uncertain situation, and suggest a reassuring narrative of clear cause and effect rather than random chance. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-ufos-to-covid-conspiracy-theories-we-all-struggle-with-the-truth-out-there-163483">From UFOs to COVID conspiracy theories, we all struggle with the 'truth out there'</a>
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<p>China’s tight-lipped approach to information-sharing <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/02/covid-pandemic-origin-china-lab-leak-theory-energy-department/673230/">isn’t helping to allay suspicions</a>. In the eyes of lab-leak theory advocates, the desire to hide information suggests something more nefarious than a simple desire to avoid blame. </p>
<p>But embracing an argument built on a tissue of circumstantial evidence is also part of the conspiracy theory playbook: magical thinking enters the grey zone of unanswered questions to create elaborate narratives of false reassurance. </p>
<p>Some questions about the origin of COVID-19 may never be answered. For many, that is an unpalatable idea. Yet if we are to intervene in this historical pattern of overreaction, conspiracy theory and blame, we need to be honest about the limits of our knowledge.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204025/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simone Celine Marshall and Hannah Johnson have received Fulbright funding for their project, "The First Era of Fake News: Witch-Hunting, Antisemitism and Islamophobia".</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Work on this project is being supported by a Fulbright fellowship. Neither Fulbright International nor Fulbright NZ pays fellowship recipients for publication. The authors' opinions are entirely their own, and do not represent the views of any organisation.</span></em></p>In an age of antibiotics and scientific reason, we like to think we’re more rational than our forebears. But the early history of conspiracy theories suggests some behaviours persist through time.Simone Celine Marshall, Professor of Medieval Literature, University of OtagoHannah Johnson, Professor of English, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1936972022-11-09T13:38:32Z2022-11-09T13:38:32ZWhy magical thinking is so widespread – a look at the psychological roots of common superstitions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494147/original/file-20221108-20-jowi62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=68%2C0%2C5623%2C3797&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lucky charms help us feel safer in an uncertain world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/inside-of-a-taxi-royalty-free-image/80486695?phrase=superstition%20mirror&adppopup=true">Image Source via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Growing up in Greece, I spent my summers at my grandparents’ home in a small coastal village in the region of Chalkidiki. It was warm and sunny, and I passed most of my time playing in the streets with my cousins. But occasionally, the summer storms brought torrential rain. You could see them coming from far away, with black clouds looming over the horizon, lit up by lightning.</p>
<p>As I rushed home, I was intrigued to see my grandparents prepare for the thunderstorm. Grandma would cover a large mirror on the living room wall with a dark cloth and throw a blanket over the TV. Meanwhile, Grandpa would climb a ladder to remove the light bulb over the patio door. Then they switched off all the lights in the house and waited the storm out.</p>
<p>I never understood why they did all this. When I asked, they said that light attracts lightning. At least that was what people said, so better to be on the safe side.</p>
<p>Where do these kinds of beliefs come from?</p>
<p>My fascination with <a href="https://www.littlebrownspark.com/titles/dimitris-xygalatas/ritual/9780316462402/">seemingly bizarre cultural beliefs and practices</a> eventually led me to become an anthropologist. I have come across similar superstitions around the world, and although one may marvel at their variety, they share some common features.</p>
<h2>The principles of magical thinking</h2>
<p>At the core of most superstitions are certain intuitive notions about how the world works. Early anthropologists described these intuitions in terms of principles such as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2021.2006294">similarity” and “contagion</a>.” </p>
<p>According to the principle of similarity, things that look alike may share some deeper connection, just as the members of a family tend to resemble each other both in appearance and in other traits. Of course, this is not always the case. But this inference feels natural, so we often abuse it.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration of a black cat, a broken mirror and the words, Friday the 13th." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494150/original/file-20221108-16-od04xm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">At the core of most superstitions are intuitive notions about how the world works.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/friday-the-13th-black-cat-royalty-free-illustration/1285396482?phrase=superstition%20broken%20mirror&adppopup=true">Andry Djumantara/ iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Case in point: The light reflected on the surface of a mirror is not related to the light resulting from the electrical discharges produced <a href="https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/239-lightning-explained">during a thunderstorm</a>. But because they both seem to give off light, a connection between the two was plausible enough to become <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=1Mc4qPiICvcC&pg=PT1100&lpg=PT1100&dq=mirrors+%22attract+lightning%22+superstition&source=bl&ots=LVd49J3fHl&sig=ACfU3U3sbqS-vHXpUTiXa-ytwQ9HJ_qShg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiPlYGxgp_7AhXEkokEHTcFAVg4FBDoAXoECD8QAw#v=onepage&q=mirrors%20%22attract%20lightning%22%20superstition&f=false">folk wisdom</a> in many parts of the world. Likewise, because our reflection on the mirror closely resembles our own image, many cultures hold that breaking a mirror brings bad luck, as if damage to that reflection would also mean <a href="http://www.mirrorhistory.com/mirror-facts/broken-mirror/">damage to ourselves</a>.</p>
<p>The principle of contagion is based on the idea that things have internal properties that can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/demolishing-schools-after-a-mass-shooting-reflects-humans-deep-rooted-desire-for-purification-rituals-184826">transmitted through contact</a>. The heat of a fire is transferred to anything it touches, and some illnesses can spread from one organism to another. Whether consciously or unconsciously, people in all cultures often expect that other kinds of essences can also be transferred through contact. </p>
<p>For example, people often believe that certain essences can “rub off” on someone, which is why casino players sometimes touch someone who is on a winning streak. It is also why, in 2014, a statue of Juliet, the Shakespearean character who fell madly in love with Romeo, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/arts/veronas-juliet-statue-damaged-beyond-repair-love-seeking-tourists">had to be replaced</a> due to excessive wear caused by visitors touching it to find love.</p>
<h2>A search for patterns</h2>
<p>These kinds of superstitions betray something more general about the way people think. To make sense of our world, we look for patterns in nature. When two things occur at around the same time, they may be related. For instance, black clouds are associated with rain.</p>
<p>But the world is far too complex. Most of the time, <a href="https://www.statology.org/correlation-does-not-imply-causation-examples/">correlation does not mean causation</a>, although it may feel like it does. </p>
<p>If you wear a new shirt to the stadium and your team wins, you might wear it again. If another victory comes, you begin to see a pattern. This now becomes your lucky shirt. In reality, myriad other things have changed since the last game, but you do not have access to all those things. What you know for sure is that you wore the lucky shirt, and the result was favorable.</p>
<h2>Superstitions are comforting</h2>
<p>People really want their lucky charms to work. So when they don’t, we are less motivated to remember them, or we may attribute our luck to some other factor. If their team loses, they might blame the referee. But when their team wins, they are <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/science-choice/201504/what-is-confirmation-bias">more likely to notice the lucky shirt</a>, and more likely to declare to others that it worked, which helps spread the idea.</p>
<p>As a social species, so much of what we know about the world comes from common wisdom. It would therefore seem safe to assume that if other people believe in the utility of a particular action, there might be something to it. If people around you say you should not eat those mushrooms, it’s probably a good idea to avoid them. </p>
<p>This “better safe than sorry” strategy is one of the main reasons superstitions are so widespread. Another reason is that they simply feel good. </p>
<p>Research shows that rituals and superstitions <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-need-rituals-especially-in-times-of-uncertainty-134321">spike during times of uncertainty</a>, and performing them can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0431">help reduce anxiety</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0021-9029.2006.00116.x">boost performance</a>. When people feel powerless, turning to familiar actions provides a sense of control, which, even if illusory, can still be comforting.</p>
<p>Thanks to these psychological effects, superstitions have been around for ages, and will likely be around for ages to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193697/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dimitris Xygalatas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An anthropologist explains why we all have some irrational beliefs and the reason they give us comfort.Dimitris Xygalatas, Associate Professor of Anthropology and Psychological Sciences, University of ConnecticutLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1804432022-07-12T12:34:00Z2022-07-12T12:34:00ZWhy does love feel magical? It’s an evolutionary advantage<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472122/original/file-20220701-20-n8qfx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=674%2C583%2C5291%2C3480&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Evolutionary psychology may explain why magical thinking is so central to love.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/r_-onuwuWAU">Viva Luna Studios via Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244014521433">age of science</a>, many people see <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2019/10/17/in-u-s-decline-of-christianity-continues-at-rapid-pace/">supernatural forces</a> as illusions rooted in wishful thinking. But love remains a profound exception to humanity’s trend toward rationality.</p>
<p>People are used to seeing romantic love presented as it is on the reality show “The Bachelor” – as a force cosmically bound to one’s destiny. It’s an idea that is at once laughable and uncannily relatable for anyone who has been in love and felt their pairing compellingly “meant to be.” Our research suggests that magical notions of fated love and soulmates are <a href="https://osf.io/t8pvu/wiki/home/">very common and deeply felt</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tNypAxsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">As</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ari10nYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">psychology</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3UEI9NIAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">researchers</a> interested in why human beings think, feel and behave in the ways they do, we ask a basic question: Why does love feel magical? We hope that answering this question might offer some insight into the quandaries that have long plagued people in love. Should you blindly trust your heart to lead you to happiness, despite the chaos that’s as much part of love as bliss is? Or should you instead regard the tendency to magical thinking about love with skepticism, striving for rationality in the search for a fulfilling relationship?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471252/original/file-20220627-24-73hjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="embracing couple silhouetted against sunset" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471252/original/file-20220627-24-73hjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471252/original/file-20220627-24-73hjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471252/original/file-20220627-24-73hjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471252/original/file-20220627-24-73hjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471252/original/file-20220627-24-73hjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471252/original/file-20220627-24-73hjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471252/original/file-20220627-24-73hjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Romantic love can be all-consuming – and seems to be a human universal across time and societies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/cRLEVt6SZxI">frank mckenna/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is love and what does it want from me?</h2>
<p>Far from an invention of <a href="https://www.theschooloflife.com/article/a-short-history-of-love/">poets</a> or reality TV producers, romantic love has been a part of human nature for many thousands of years. Love letters written 4,000 years ago in Mesopotamia <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/article/688/love-sex-and-marriage-in-ancient-mesopotamia/">are remarkably similar</a> to those written today, and although <a href="https://doi.org/10.9707/2307-0919.1135">cultures differ</a> in their stories and expectations about romantic love, the phenomenon appears to be virtually <a href="https://labs.la.utexas.edu/buss/files/2021/08/LoveinHumans.pdf">universal</a>. Moreover, our research suggests that magical notions of fated love and soulmates are <a href="https://osf.io/t8pvu/wiki/home/">very common and deeply felt</a>. </p>
<p>But why is love a part of the human mind? Our research explores this question through the lens of evolutionary psychology. </p>
<p>Evolutionary psychology is centered on the idea that people think and act the way they do today because, over hundreds of thousands of years, our ancestors with traits that made them think and act that way were more likely to survive and reproduce, passing those helpful, or “adaptive,” traits on to the next generation. Through this process, the human mind evolved to prioritize things that contributed to survival and reproduction, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.nutr.19.1.41">highly nutritious foods</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010418-103408">potential mates</a> likely to rear healthy offspring. </p>
<p>So how could the dizzying feeling of falling in love and the illogical belief that one’s relationship is “meant to be” have helped our ancestors to survive or reproduce? <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1988-98770-000">According to one explanation</a>, the key to love’s ancient purpose lies in the apartment lease agreement.</p>
<h2>Love is like signing a lease</h2>
<p>Why do people agree to yearslong leases for apartments? After all, the tenant might soon find a better apartment and the landlord could find a better tenant.</p>
<p>The answer is that searching for the perfect apartment or tenant is such an annoying and costly process that both parties are better off making a long-term commitment to an imperfect but sufficient lease. The signed-lease agreement provides the crucial bond, keeping the temptation of other options from ruining their useful arrangement. </p>
<p>People face a nearly identical <a href="https://labs.la.utexas.edu/buss/files/2015/09/Love_acts_The_evolutionary_biology_of_love_1987.pdf">commitment problem</a> when it comes to choosing partners. Humans likely evolved to primarily <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/srep32472">favor monogamous relationships</a> that last at least long enough to co-parent children. Given this commitment’s magnitude, there’s plenty of motivation to get it right by finding the best possible partner.</p>
<p>However, searching for an ideal partner is resource intensive and challenging – that is, dating sucks. To solve the commitment problem and successfully pass down your genes, it is generally better to not endlessly chase perfection, but instead to commit to a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691614561683">good enough partner</a>. Thus, evolution may have created love as a biological lease agreement, both solving the commitment problem and providing an “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108658225.004">intoxicating reward</a>” for this solution.</p>
<p>Although love may have primarily evolved because it supports sexual reproduction, love is of course <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/300145">still very much a part of life</a> for gay, asexual and other people who do not sexually reproduce. Researchers who’ve investigated the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.02955">evolution of same-sex attraction</a> have argued that romantic relationships can provide adaptive advantages even without sexual reproduction. Importantly, variation is the engine of evolution – from a strictly evolutionary perspective, there is no single “normal” or “ideal” way of being.</p>
<h2>Love keeps you committed</h2>
<p>After you’re through the breathtaking phase of falling for a partner, love helps to ensure commitment in several ways.</p>
<p>First, it makes other potential mates seem lackluster; people in satisfying relationships rate other good-looking people as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167216646546">less attractive</a> than single people do. This perceptual shift makes one’s partner seem like more of a catch in comparison and discourages partnered people from pursuing other romantic options.</p>
<p>Second, love causes jealousy, a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2005.09.006">mate guarding</a>” adaptation that motivates vigilance and defensiveness toward those who might threaten your relationship. Even though jealousy is a burden with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXGD0zwGsUE">horrible consequences</a> at its extreme, evolutionary psychologists argue it could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2005.09.006">help prevent infidelity</a> and attempts by others to steal your partner.</p>
<p>And finally, as our team explores in ongoing research, the supernatural “meant to be” stories people tell about love might increase their confidence in the value of their relationship. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472815/original/file-20220706-25-ajysxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="man listens lovingly to smiling woman's pregnant belly" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472815/original/file-20220706-25-ajysxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472815/original/file-20220706-25-ajysxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472815/original/file-20220706-25-ajysxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472815/original/file-20220706-25-ajysxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472815/original/file-20220706-25-ajysxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472815/original/file-20220706-25-ajysxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/472815/original/file-20220706-25-ajysxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The magic of love is part of what can keep a couple committed for the long term.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/man-feeling-a-pregnant-womans-stomach-royalty-free-image/523290284">Mikael Vaisanen/The Image Bank via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why magical beliefs about love may be useful</h2>
<p>Our work investigates how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511571381.002">magical thinking</a> can be adaptive despite being based in fantasy. Unlike a lease agreement, emotions are often turbulent and unpredictable. More than just a feeling of connection, <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/positive-psychology-of-meaning-spirituality-selected-papers-from-meaning-conferences/oclc/541652506?referer=di&ht=edition">believing in a narrative</a> that suggests your relationship is magically “meant to be” could provide a consistent reason to stick together for the long haul. </p>
<p>While a magical belief in fated love is almost certainly objectively false, if it helps to cement a long-term commitment to a good partner, it fulfills an adaptive purpose and can therefore be considered “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1521/soco.2009.27.5.764">deeply rational</a>.” As neuroscientist <a href="https://youtu.be/OaeYUm06in0?t=2332">Karl Deisseroth</a> put it, love is an “unreasonable bond that becomes reasonable by virtue of its own existence.” </p>
<p>So even if magical love doesn’t make sense, it makes sense for love to feel magical. Our reading of the research suggests that love’s magic helps people make the tremendous commitment required to successfully pass their genes down.</p>
<h2>Don’t overthink it</h2>
<p>But what are you to do with the knowledge that love’s magic exists to fulfill evolution’s bluntly practical aim of passing your genes on to future generations, rather than to lead to happiness or even an <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393254693">accurate perception of reality</a>? Surely we can improve on the advice of so many contestants on “The Bachelor” to “<a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CbJ6TfPOE24/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading">follow your heart</a>,” blindly trusting that you will find meaning in the pursuit of a biological imperative. </p>
<p>Yet, there is a grain of truth in that cliché. If you revolt against that magical thinking, you might be overthinking your way out of one of life’s greatest gifts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s not logical to believe your relationship is “meant to be.” But believing in destined love may have evolved as a way to keep couples together long enough to reproduce and raise children.Benjamin Kaveladze, PhD Candidate in Psychological Science, University of California, IrvineJonathan Schooler, Distinguished Professor of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of California, Santa BarbaraOliver Sng, Assistant Professor of Psychological Science, University of California, IrvineLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1321582020-03-09T12:22:22Z2020-03-09T12:22:22ZHow technology can combat the rising tide of fake science<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318753/original/file-20200304-66112-vybpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=63%2C13%2C1178%2C840&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A crop circle in Switzerland.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CropCircleW.jpg">Jabberocky/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Science gets a lot of respect these days. Unfortunately, it’s also getting a lot of competition from misinformation. Seven in 10 Americans think the benefits from science outweigh the harms, and nine in 10 think science and technology will create <a href="https://nsf.gov/statistics/2018/nsb20181/report/sections/science-and-technology-public-attitudes-and-understanding/highlights">more opportunities for future generations</a>. Scientists have made dramatic progress in understanding the universe and the mechanisms of biology, and advances in computation benefit all fields of science. </p>
<p>On the other hand, Americans are surrounded by a rising tide of misinformation and fake science. Take climate change. Scientists are in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024">almost complete agreement that people are the primary cause of global warming</a>. Yet polls show that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02406-9">a third of the public disagrees</a> with this conclusion.</p>
<p>In my <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OrRLRQ4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">30 years of studying and promoting scientific literacy</a>, I’ve found that college educated adults have large holes in their basic science knowledge and they’re disconcertingly <a href="https://ejse.southwestern.edu/article/view/17315">susceptible to superstition and beliefs that aren’t based on any evidence</a>. One way to counter this is to make it easier for people to detect pseudoscience online. To this end, my lab at the University of Arizona has developed an artificial intelligence-based pseudoscience detector that we plan to freely release as a web browser extension and smart phone app.</p>
<h2>Americans’ predilection for fake science</h2>
<p>Americans are prone to superstition and paranormal beliefs. An annual survey done by sociologists at Chapman University finds that <a href="https://blogs.chapman.edu/wilkinson/2018/10/16/paranormal-america-2018/">more than half believe in spirits and the existence of ancient civilizations</a> like Atlantis, and more than a third think that aliens have visited the Earth in the past or are visiting now. Over 75% hold multiple paranormal beliefs. The survey shows that these numbers have increased in recent years.</p>
<p><iframe id="IbP7D" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IbP7D/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Widespread belief in astrology is a pet peeve of my colleagues in astronomy. It’s long had a foothold in the popular culture through horoscopes in newspapers and magazines <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/01/the-new-age-of-astrology/550034/">but currently it’s booming</a>. Belief is strong even among the most educated. My surveys of college undergraduates show that three-quarters of them <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/AER2010040">think that astrology is very or “sort of” scientific</a> and only half of science majors recognize it as not at all scientific.</p>
<p>Allan Mazur, a sociologist at Syracuse University, has delved into <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9780203788967">the nature of irrational belief systems</a>, their cultural roots, and their political impact. Conspiracy theories are, by definition, resistant to evidence or data that might prove them false. Some are at least amusing. Adherents of the flat Earth theory turn back the clock on two millennia of scientific progress. <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/9/16424622/reddit-conspiracy-theories-memes-irony-flat-earth">Interest in this bizarre idea has surged in the past five years</a>, spurred by social media influencers and the echo chamber nature of web sites like Reddit. As with climate change denial, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-47279253">many come to this belief through YouTube videos</a>.</p>
<p>However, the consequences of fake science are no laughing matter. In matters of health and climate change, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.190161">misinformation can be a matter of life and death</a>. Over a 90-day period spanning December, January and February, people liked, shared and commented on posts from sites containing <a href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/coronavirus-misinformation-is-increasing-newsguard-finds/">false or misleading information about COVID-19</a> 142 times more than they did information from the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization. </p>
<p>Combating fake science is an urgent priority. In a world that’s increasingly dependent on science and technology, civic society can only function when the electorate is well informed. </p>
<p>Educators must roll up their sleeves and do a better job of teaching critical thinking to young people. However, the problem goes beyond the classroom. The internet is the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2018/nsb20181/report">first source of science information</a> for 80% of people ages 18 to 24. </p>
<p>One study found that a majority of a random sample of 200 YouTube videos on climate change <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2019.00036">denied that humans were responsible or claimed that it was a conspiracy</a>. The videos peddling conspiracy theories got the most views. Another study found that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/feb/21/climate-tweets-twitter-bots-analysis">a quarter of all tweets on climate were generated by bots</a> and they preferentially amplified messages from climate change deniers.</p>
<h2>Technology to the rescue?</h2>
<p>The recent success of machine learning and AI in <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.00648">detecting fake news</a> points the way to detecting fake science online. The key is <a href="https://www.explainthatstuff.com/introduction-to-neural-networks.html">neural net</a> technology. Neural nets are loosely modeled on the human brain. They consist of many interconnected computer processors that identify meaningful patterns in data like words and images. Neural nets already permeate everyday life, particularly in <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.02709">natural language processing</a> systems like Amazon’s Alexa and Google’s language translation capability.</p>
<p>At the University of Arizona, we have trained neural nets on handpicked popular articles about climate change and biological evolution, and the neural nets are 90% successful in distinguishing wheat from chaff. With a quick scan of a site, our neural net can tell if its content is scientifically sound or climate-denial junk. After more refinement and testing we hope to have neural nets that can work across all domains of science. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318416/original/file-20200303-66064-2dk56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318416/original/file-20200303-66064-2dk56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318416/original/file-20200303-66064-2dk56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318416/original/file-20200303-66064-2dk56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318416/original/file-20200303-66064-2dk56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318416/original/file-20200303-66064-2dk56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318416/original/file-20200303-66064-2dk56c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Neural net technology under development at the University of Arizona will flag science websites with a color code indicating their reliability (left). A smartphone app version will gamify the process of declaring science articles real or fake (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Impey</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The goal is a web browser extension that would detect when the user is looking at science content and deduce whether or not it’s real or fake. If it’s misinformation, the tool will suggest a reliable web site on that topic. My colleagues and I also plan to gamify the interface with a smart phone app that will let people compete with their friends and relatives to detect fake science. Data from the best of these participants will be used to help train the neural net.</p>
<p>Sniffing out fake science should be easier than sniffing out fake news in general, because subjective opinion plays a minimal role in legitimate science, which is characterized by evidence, logic and verification. Experts can readily distinguish legitimate science from conspiracy theories and arguments motivated by ideology, which means machine learning systems can be trained to, as well. </p>
<p>“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.” These words of <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/11/moynihan-letters-201011">Daniel Patrick Moynihan</a>, advisor to four presidents, could be the mantra for those trying to keep science from being drowned by misinformation.</p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Impey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The internet has allowed pseudoscience to flourish. Artificial intelligence could help steer people away from the bad information.Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of ArizonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/727112017-03-22T01:12:08Z2017-03-22T01:12:08ZChildren understand far more about other minds than long believed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161910/original/image-20170321-5384-1wiuxk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Don't underestimate what I get about the world around me.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/vintage-photo-baby-girl-pram-fifties-136810409">Baby image via www.shutterstock.com.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Until a few decades ago, scholars believed that young children know very little, if anything, about what others are thinking. Swiss <a href="http://www.piaget.org/aboutPiaget.html">psychologist Jean Piaget</a>, who is credited with founding the scientific study of children’s thinking, was convinced that preschool children cannot consider what goes on in the minds of others.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161887/original/image-20170321-5386-fvscs2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161887/original/image-20170321-5386-fvscs2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161887/original/image-20170321-5386-fvscs2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161887/original/image-20170321-5386-fvscs2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161887/original/image-20170321-5386-fvscs2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161887/original/image-20170321-5386-fvscs2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1262&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161887/original/image-20170321-5386-fvscs2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1262&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161887/original/image-20170321-5386-fvscs2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1262&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jean Piaget had many insights, but sold kids short in some ways.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jean_Piaget_in_Ann_Arbor.png">Michiganensian</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Psychology_Of_The_Child.html?id=-Dpz05-rJ4gC">interviews and experiments he conducted with kids</a> in the middle of the 20th century suggested that they were trapped in their subjective viewpoints, incapable of imagining what others think, feel or believe. To him, young children seemed oblivious to the fact that different people might hold distinct viewpoints or perspectives on the world, or even that their own perspectives shift over time.</p>
<p>Much of the subsequent research on early childhood thinking was highly influenced by Piaget’s ideas. Scholars sought to refine his theory and empirically confirm his views. But it became increasingly clear that Piaget was missing something. He seemed to have gravely underestimated the intellectual powers of very young kids – before they can make themselves understood by speech or even intentional action. Researchers began to devise ever more ingenious ways of figuring out what goes on in the minds of babies, and the resulting picture of their abilities is becoming more and more nuanced.</p>
<p>Consequently, the old view of children’s egocentric nature and intellectual weaknesses has increasingly fallen out of favor and become replaced by a more generous position that sees a budding sense not only of the physical world but also of other minds, even in the “youngest young.”</p>
<h2>Dark Ages of intellectual development?</h2>
<p>Historically, children didn’t receive much respect for their mental powers. Piaget not only believed that <a href="https://www.simplypsychology.org/preoperational.html">children were “egocentric”</a> in the sense that they were unable to differentiate between their own viewpoint and that of others; he was also convinced that their thinking was characterized by systematic errors and confusions.</p>
<p>For example, the children he interviewed seemed unable to disentangle causes from their effects (“Does the wind move the branches or do the moving branches cause the wind?”) and could not tell reality apart from superficial appearances (a stick submerged halfway into water looks, but is not, bent). They also fall prey to magical and mythical thinking: A child might believe that the sun was once a ball that someone tossed up into the sky, where it grew bigger and bigger. In fact, Piaget believed that children’s mental development progresses in the same way historians believe human thought progressed over historical time: from mythical to logical thinking.</p>
<p>Piaget firmly believed kids were focused entirely on their own actions and perceptions. <a href="http://psychology.jrank.org/pages/496/Play.html">When playing with others</a>, they don’t cooperate because they do not realize there are different roles and perspectives. He was convinced that children literally cannot “get their act together”: instead of playing cooperatively and truly together, they play side by side, with little regard for the other. And when speaking with others, a young child supposedly cannot consider the listener’s viewpoint but “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=-Dpz05-rJ4gC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA120#v=onepage&q=talks%20to%20himself%20without%20listening%20to%20the%20others&f=false">talks to himself without listening to the others</a>.”</p>
<p>Piaget and his followers maintained that children go through something like a dark ages of intellectual development before slowly and gradually becoming enlightened by reason and rationality as they reach school age. Alongside this enlightenment develops an ever-growing understanding of other persons, including their attitudes and views of the world.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161913/original/image-20170322-5391-qzgcd1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161913/original/image-20170322-5391-qzgcd1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161913/original/image-20170322-5391-qzgcd1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161913/original/image-20170322-5391-qzgcd1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161913/original/image-20170322-5391-qzgcd1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161913/original/image-20170322-5391-qzgcd1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161913/original/image-20170322-5391-qzgcd1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161913/original/image-20170322-5391-qzgcd1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We may know more than we can say.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/four-babies-group-sitting-on-floor-76539934">Babies image via www.shutterstock.com.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Changing mindset about minds</h2>
<p>Today, a very different picture of children’s mental development emerges. Psychologists continually reveal new insights into the depth of young children’s knowledge of the world, including their understanding of other minds. Recent studies suggest that <a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/news.2010.697">even infants are sensitive to others’ perspectives and beliefs</a>.</p>
<p>Part of the motivation to revise some of Piaget’s conclusions stemmed from an ideological shift about the origin of human knowledge that occurred in the second half of the 20th century. It became increasingly unpopular to assume that a basic understanding of the world can be built entirely from experience.</p>
<p>This was in part instigated by theorist Noam Chomsky, who argued that something as complex as the rules of grammar cannot be picked up from exposure to speech, but is supplied by <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/innateness-language/">an innate “language faculty.”</a> Others followed suit and defined further “core areas” in which knowledge allegedly cannot be pieced together from experience but must be innate. One such area is our knowledge of others’ minds. Some even argue that a basic knowledge of others’ minds is not only possessed by human infants, but must be evolutionarily old and hence shared by <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-great-apes-read-your-mind-66224">our nearest living relatives, the great apes</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161886/original/image-20170321-5395-1848gv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161886/original/image-20170321-5395-1848gv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161886/original/image-20170321-5395-1848gv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161886/original/image-20170321-5395-1848gv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161886/original/image-20170321-5395-1848gv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161886/original/image-20170321-5395-1848gv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161886/original/image-20170321-5395-1848gv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/161886/original/image-20170321-5395-1848gv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eye tracking technology can follow where infants look and for how long, providing clues to what surprises them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/smieyetracking/5890659238">SMI Eye Tracking</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ingenious new investigation tools</h2>
<p>To prove that infants know more in this realm than had been acknowledged, researchers needed to come up with innovative ways of showing it. A big part of why we now recognize so much more of kids’ intellectual capacities is the development of much more sensitive research tools than Piaget had at his disposal.</p>
<p>Instead of engaging toddlers in dialog or having them execute complex motor tasks, the <a href="http://doi.org/10.1080/15248371003699977">newer methods capitalize on behaviors</a> that have a firm place in infants’ natural behavior repertoire: looking, listening, sucking, making facial expressions, gestures and simple manual actions. The idea of focusing on these “small behaviors” is that they give kids the chance to demonstrate their knowledge implicitly and spontaneously – without having to respond to questions or instructions. For example, children might look longer at an event that they did not expect to happen, or they might show facial expressions indicating that they have empathy with another.</p>
<p>When researchers measure these less demanding, and often involuntary, behaviors, they can detect a sensitivity to others’ mental states at a much younger age than with the more taxing methods that Piaget and his disciples deployed.</p>
<h2>What modern studies reveal</h2>
<p>In the 1980s, these kinds of implicit measures became customary in developmental psychology. But it took a while longer before these tools were employed to measure children’s grasp of the mental lives of others. Recent studies have revealed that even infants and toddlers are sensitive to what goes in others’ minds.</p>
<p>In one series of experiments, a group of Hungarian scientists had six-month-old babies watch an animation of the following sequence of events: A Smurf observed how a ball rolled behind a screen. The Smurf then left. In its absence, the infants witnessed how the ball emerged from behind the screen and rolled away. The Smurf returned and the screen was lowered, showing that the ball was no longer there. The authors of the study recorded the infants’ looks and found that they fixated longer than usual on the final scene in which the Smurf gazed at the empty space behind the barrier – as if they <a href="http://doi.org/10.1126/science.1190792">understood that the Smurf’s expectation was violated</a>.</p>
<p>In another set of experiments, my colleagues at the University of Southern California and I found evidence that toddlers can even <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.12581">anticipate how others will feel when their expectations are disappointed</a>. We acted out several puppet shows in front of two-year-old children. In these puppet shows, a protagonist (Cookie Monster) left his precious belongings (cookies) on stage and later returned to fetch them. What the protagonist did not know was that an antagonist had come and messed with his possessions. The children had witnessed these acts and attentively watch the protagonist return. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N2yPkF689Eg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In the ‘False Belief’ section, Cookie Monster returns after his cookies were removed; the child’s reaction is a furrowed brow and biting her lip. In the ‘True Belief’ section, the child calmly follows the story with curiosity and interest, but no tension, when a protagonist returns, already in the know about what happened in her absence.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We recorded children’s facial and bodily expressions. Children bit their lips, wrinkled their nose or wiggled in their chair when the protagonist came back, as if they anticipated the bewilderment and disappointment he was about to experience. Importantly, children showed no such reactions and remained calm when the protagonist had seen the events himself and thus knew what to expect. Our study reveals that by the tender age of two, kids not only track what others believe or expect; they can even foresee how others will feel when they discover reality.</p>
<p>Studies like these reveal that there is much more going on in toddlers’ and even infants’ minds than was previously believed. With the explicit measures used by Piaget and successors, these deeper layers of kids’ understanding cannot be accessed. The new investigative tools demonstrate that kids know more than they can say: when we scratch beneath the surface, we find a fledgling understanding of relations and perspectives that Piaget probably did not dream of.</p>
<h2>Old ways have value, too</h2>
<p>Despite these obvious advances in the study of young children’s thinking, it would be a grave mistake to dismiss the careful and systematic analyses compiled by Piaget and others before the new tests dominated the scene. Doing so would be like throwing out the baby with the bathwater, because the original methods revealed essential facts about how children think – facts that the new, “minimalist” methods cannot uncover.</p>
<p>There’s no consensus in today’s community about <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/J.1467-7687.2007.00563.X">how much we can infer</a> from a look, a grimace or a hand gesture. These behaviors clearly indicate a curiosity about what goes on in the mind of others, and probably a set of early intuitions coupled with a willingness to learn more. They pave the way to richer and more explicit forms of understanding of the minds of other. But they can in no way replace the child’s growing ability to articulate and refine her understanding of how people behave and why.</p>
<p>Piaget may have underestimated infants’ cognitive powers, perhaps for lack of modern tools. But his insights into how a child gradually comes to grasp the world around her and understand that she is a person among a community of other persons remain as inspiring as they were 50 years ago. Today’s challenge for us developmental scholars is to integrate the new with the old, and understand how infants’ sensitivity to other minds gradually develops into a full-blown understanding of other persons as distinct from, and yet similar to, oneself.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72711/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Henrike Moll receives funding from the Office of Naval Research. </span></em></p>A revolution in the tools and techniques developmental psychologists use to investigate kids’ knowledge and capabilities is rewriting what we know about how and when children understand their world.Henrike Moll, Assistant Professor in Developmental Psychology, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/592672016-05-17T11:56:49Z2016-05-17T11:56:49ZWhy Julius Malema’s EFF doesn’t offer South Africans a way out of poverty<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122141/original/image-20160511-18157-rrjp0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"> Julius Malema, leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), greets supporters at the launch of the party's local election manifesto in Soweto. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Cornell Tukiri</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In “<a href="http://whynationsfail.com/summary/">Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty</a>”, economist Daron Acemoglu and political scientist James A Robinson argue compellingly that the key to economic growth and prosperity lies in strong and inclusive institutions. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Inclusive economic institutions, such as those in South Korea and the United States, are those that allow and encourage participation by the great mass of people in economic activities that make best use of their talents and skills and enable individuals to make the choices they wish.
To be inclusive economic institutions must feature secure private property, an unbiased system of law, and a provision of public services that provides a level playing field in which people can exchange and contract; it must also permit the entry of new businesses and allow people to choose their careers.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The authors go on to say: “Secure property rights are central, since only those with such rights will be willing to invest and increase productivity.” </p>
<p>In the same way that inclusive institutions spur economic growth and prosperity, <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21552589">extractive institutions</a> that “are structured to extract resources from the many by the few and that fail to protect property rights or provide incentives for economic activity” doom a country to perpetual poverty.</p>
<p>Understandable anger about the excessive inequality in South Africa lies at the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/founding-economic-freedom-fighters-eff">heart of the rise</a> of Economic Freedom Fighters (<a href="http://effighters.org.za/">EFF</a>). The party is the most successful of the three splinters from the governing <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/">African National Congress</a> (ANC) since 1994. The others are the <a href="http://udm.org.za/history/">United Democratic Movement</a> and the <a href="http://www.congressofthepeople.org.za/content/page/History-of-cope">Congress of the People</a>. The EFF made headway by engaging in aggressive rhetoric and <a href="http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2016-05-15-of-revolution-and-constitutionalism-the-perceived-antagonism-is-artificial/?utm_source=Daily+Maverick+First+Thing&utm_campaign=285bd8935d-First_Thing_13_May_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c81900545f-285bd8935d-128215025#.Vzm54pN95E5">proclaiming</a> an African socialist revolution.</p>
<p>The problem is not that the EFF’s analysis of South Africa’s problems is completely inaccurate – the party has a valid point about the necessity of free education, for example. The problem is how the EFF wants to address these issues and where it gets its economic policies from.</p>
<h2>The manifesto</h2>
<p>In its <a href="http://effighters.org.za/documents/economic-freedom-fighters-founding-manifesto/">founding manifesto</a> the party outlines seven “nonnegotiable cardinal pillars”, which include building state capacity, the nationalisation of strategic sectors of the economy and the expropriation of land without compensation.</p>
<p>The EFF’s local government election <a href="http://www.effonline.org/#!eff-elections-manifesto-2016/u0hoz">manifesto</a> spells out this vision in more detail. Its manifesto is a combination of lavish promises and magical thinking with regard to basic economic concepts.</p>
<p>But first and foremost, the party’s manifesto is a continued attack on South Africa’s economic institutions. Among other things, the EFF wants to abolish the tender system that is used, for example, to determine who can build a road at the lowest cost. </p>
<p>Doing so would diminish competition among businesses. Rather, the EFF wants to directly employ residents to do the same job, thus creating the same patronage network it criticises in the ANC. How this should lead to less corruption remains a mystery.</p>
<p>Another aspect of the election manifesto is even more worrying. The EFF writes that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A minimum of 50% of basic food items and goods would have to be produced within a municipality. A minimum of 40% of all investments in its jurisdictions should be owned and controlled by community trusts or invest a minimum of 40% of their profits in the municipality.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The party envisions nothing less than a society where municipalities are organised in chiefdoms rather than being part of a modern nation state.</p>
<h2>The Venezuela option</h2>
<p>In a eulogy after the death of former Venezuelan president and fellow commander-in-chief, Hugo Chavez in 2013, Malema <a href="http://www.politicsweb.co.za/party/julius-malema-pays-tribute-to-hugo-chavez">praises</a> the comrade following his visit to Venezuela in 2010 where he <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/sundaytimes/2010/04/25/now-malema-visits-venezuela">studied</a> the country’s nationalisation programme: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Chavez was able to lead Venezuela into an era where the wealth of Venezuela, particularly oil was returned to the ownership of the people as a whole.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Venezuela has some of the world’s <a href="http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp-country/de_de/PDFs/brochures/BP-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2014-full-report.pdf">largest proven oil reserves</a> that, in conjunction with a tenfold increase in crude oil <a href="http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Chart.asp">prices</a> between 1998 and 2008, enabled Chavez to enact a series of populist socialist policies.</p>
<p>But when the oil price started to <a href="http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart">fall in 2014</a>, the party in Venezuela was, quite literally, over.</p>
<p>On April 29 Empresas Polar, the country’s largest producer of beer, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/beer-becomes-the-latest-scarcity-in-a-venezuela-wracked-by-shortages-1461963129">stopped producing</a> because it ran out of barley. This is only the latest in a long list of shortages that includes basic necessities, such as baby food and toilet paper. Things have turned so badly that three meals a day have become a luxury many people can no longer <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/slideshow/venezuelan-crisis-leaves-families-empty-fridges-n563516">afford</a>.</p>
<p>The reason for this shortage is that many international firms suffered billion-dollar losses and <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2015/02/18/how-venezuelas-economic-crisis-hurts-u-s-companies/#78ed62b42502">abandoned their operations</a>. </p>
<p>Russ Dallen, head of investment bank Latinvest, <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/4ccbeb90-0e11-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515">summarised</a> the situation in Venezuela in grim words:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The worst shortage is of medicine and medical equipment. To be sick in Venezuela right now is a death sentence.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The EFF is trying to follow the Venezuelan model by heavily <a href="http://effighters.org.za/policy/nationalisation-of-mines/">promoting</a> the nationalisation of “minerals, metals, banks, energy production and telecommunications” as its core economic agenda.</p>
<p>Even if nationalisation along the lines of the EFF document were legally possible – and it is not – the numbers simply do not add up. Primary mineral exports <a href="http://www.chamberofmines.org.za/industry-news/publications/facts-and-figures">contribute</a> about 30% of South Africa’s total merchandise exports. This is well below the 95% oil <a href="http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/171.htm">contributes</a> to Venezuela’s exports. And it is less than clear that any state-owned entity will turn profits. Take power utility Eskom, for example, which would be insolvent without government <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-02/south-africa-said-to-favor-vodacom-sale-over-telkom-in-bailout">bailouts</a>, or national carrier SAA, which is currently in need of <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/gordhan-withholds-saa-bailout-2016275">yet another guarantee</a> from the National Treasury. Nationalisation will not be enough to finance the EFF’s lavish promises.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122145/original/image-20160511-18128-pycb33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/122145/original/image-20160511-18128-pycb33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122145/original/image-20160511-18128-pycb33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122145/original/image-20160511-18128-pycb33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122145/original/image-20160511-18128-pycb33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122145/original/image-20160511-18128-pycb33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/122145/original/image-20160511-18128-pycb33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Julius Malema is enamoured with Robert Mugabe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Philimon Bulawayo</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reservoir of resentment</h2>
<p>What the EFF is trying to do is tap into a reservoir of accumulated apartheid injustice. Freelance journalist Louise Ferreira <a href="http://thoughtleader.co.za/louiseferreira/2015/11/09/on-whiteness-and-white-guilt/">summarised</a> aptly: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>White prosperity was built on the oppression and dehumanisation of black bodies.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The scars of the apartheid regime’s crimes, in particular of the forced resettlement of millions of people, are still <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/dec/06/south-africa-racially-divided-survey">visible today</a>. In 1994 the ANC set out to redistribute 30% of farmland to black farmers by the end of 2014, but <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/7d361764-b832-11e4-b6a5-00144feab7de">only 5%</a> of land has actually been transferred.</p>
<p>This lack of transformation is what makes the EFF attractive to so many. Early on, Malema picked up on the <a href="http://www.afrobarometer.org/press/south-africans-increasingly-discontent-countrys-democracy-0">discontent</a> South Africans had begun to feel towards democracy. </p>
<p>He was <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/south-africa-treasonous-remarks-by-eff-leader-julius-malema-met-anc-criminal-charges-1556629">recently quoted</a> saying that “white monopoly capital has stolen our land,” and one of the EFF’s <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2016/04/30/12-promises-of-what-an-EFF-municipality-will-do-for-voters%E2%80%9A-by-Julius-Malema">key promises</a> is that, similar to Zimbabwe, it will <a href="http://www.biznews.com/leadership/2016/02/15/malema-sa-needs-zimbabwe-style-land-expropriation-without-compensation/">expropriate land</a> without compensation.</p>
<p>Malema has never made a secret of his <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2014/01/09/malema-slams-capitalism-praises-mugabe">man-crush</a> on Zimbabwe’s ruthless dictator Robert Mugabe:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There’s no system that has worked successfully for Africans, except the Zimbabwean system. The Zimbabweans today can be hungry and poor, but at least they own property.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>What he fails to understand, however, is that without capital, and in particular foreign capital, the only thing people can do with their land is subsistence farming that will offer neither them, nor their children, a way out of poverty.</p>
<p>The EFF’s entire economic policy, it seems, consists of weakening the very institutions that economists have identified as key drivers of economic growth.</p>
<p>But without inclusive institutions, South Africa will be turned into a kleptocracy akin to countries like Venezuela and Zimbabwe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Co-Pierre Georg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Understandable anger about the excessive inequality in South Africa lies at the heart of the rise of the radical Economic Freedom Fighters. The problem is how the party wants to address these issues.Co-Pierre Georg, Senior Lecturer, African Institute for Financial Markets and Risk Management, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/353842014-12-23T20:07:21Z2014-12-23T20:07:21ZWhat is magical thinking and do we grow out of it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/66975/original/image-20141211-6060-pfxn4q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How is it the intelligent human brain can believe a presumably wealthy fat man flies to every household in the world in one night delivering presents?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/armadillo444/3129790095">Flickr/Carlos</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Have you ever wondered why children so easily accept that once every year, a terribly generous and presumably very wealthy gentleman travels by magic reindeer to all children across the world to deliver presents during the night?</p>
<p>Just prior to Christmas I thought I’d outline a surprisingly common quirk of human cognition – magical thinking.</p>
<p>As humans we appear to have an innate tendency to draw links between our observations of phenomena in our environment. For example, I may observe that when grey clouds gather, it is more likely to rain, and if I took steps to objectively test that observation, chances are I’d be on the money. </p>
<p>From an evolutionary point of view you can see how important making these links have been to our survival. Being able to figure out what precedes what, and develop some method of prediction, can allow us to develop some control over our environment.</p>
<p>This tendency to infer causation between seemingly related stimuli can lead to some <a href="http://theconversation.com/clearing-up-confusion-between-correlation-and-causation-30761">hilarious red herrings</a> such as the relationship between cheese consumption and strangulation by bedsheet, and some very common mistakes including the <a href="http://theconversation.com/mind-over-matter-the-ethics-of-using-the-placebo-effect-3752">placebo effect</a> (misattributing a change in one’s health to an external agent of some sort).</p>
<p>Kids are attracted to, and even excited by, the idea of magic (as seen in the phenomenal success of Harry Potter). Kids will happily accept impossible explanations for many things. Parents need to be careful in times of stress that kids don’t take on blame for events that have nothing to do with them – for example believing that their parents are divorcing because their grades were bad.</p>
<p>These perfectly normal examples of child cognition coincide with normal child brain development; their egocentricity combined with a limited ability to reason with abstract concepts are largely responsible for these errors.</p>
<p>In the clip below, I filmed my daughter (then aged about 13 years) making a classic magical thinking error – she reasoned Kevin Rudd must be making it rain because it started to rain a lot after he came in to power. I put her hypothesis to two 10-year old boys, and after initially accepting this as a perfectly logical relationship, they struggled to explain their reasoning.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ITxXKkxiHNA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Although much criticism has been directed towards Rudd’s prime ministership, I really don’t think we can pin the weather on him.</p>
<p><a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=Z2aYAgAAQBAJ&dq=jean+piaget+magical+thinking&source=gbs_navlinks_s">Developmental psychologist Jean Piaget</a> first documented magical thinking in children and typically it should start to wane <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1348/026151004772901140/abstract">around the age of 10 years</a> (give or take a couple of years either way). Children will start to question the feasibility of the mechanisms that lie behind the connections they make – can a man really travel round the entire world in just one night? How can a politician influence the weather?</p>
<p>Eventually we are supposed to grow up. And most of us like to believe that as adults, our opinions, understanding or attitudes are grounded in solid realistic principles. However, it may come as a huge shock that most adults (even extremely well educated ones) will hold on to their favourite magical thinking quirks, and/or quickly fall back on magical thinking – especially in <a href="http://psp.sagepub.com/content/28/1/102.short">times of high emotion/stress</a>, or where clear links are <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/psp/67/1/48/">difficult to elucidate</a>.</p>
<p>Examples are almost too numerous to list, but be honest with yourself – do you occasionally read your horoscope, buy a lotto ticket in times of financial stress, cross your fingers when you really want a particular outcome, or use denial as a coping mechanism when reality is just too awful to face? Chances are that you’ve engaged in magical thinking.</p>
<p>Some forms of magical thinking are more culturally accepted than others, as comedian Arj Barker points out here in the hypocrisy behind mainstream religion’s <a href="http://livedash.ark.com/transcript/arj_barker__lyao/6732/COMEDYP/Monday_July_26_2010/386007/">criticism of Scientology</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They’re like, ‘hey, man, I just can’t believe that you would put your faith in a religion which is based on science fiction. That’s just about the craziest thing I’ve ever heard in my whole life. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m gonna continue reading my bible.’ - ‘And then the talking snake said, 'here, eat the magical apple.“</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And don’t be fooled into believing only mere average Joes fall victim to magical thinking. Think about controversial murder cases (Azaria Chamberlin, Jon Benet Ramsey) where frenzied desperation to find and blame a killer over-rode a careful and thoughtful analysis of the evidence. </p>
<p>Even some government policies, for example the Queensland government’s recent <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-09/seeney-removes-climate-change-references-from-council-plan/5954914">flat out denial</a> of the mere possibility of rising sea levels due to climate change, would be hysterically funny if it weren’t so potentially dangerous.</p>
<p>Certain aspects of magical thinking stay with most of us well into adulthood, probably because at the end of the day, we all have a tendency to see the world the way we want it to be, rather than the way it actually is.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35384/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachael Sharman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kids are attracted to, and even excited by, the idea of magic. Why?Rachael Sharman, Lecturer in Psychology, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.