tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/maize-4936/articles
Maize – The Conversation
2024-03-18T13:41:37Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/225361
2024-03-18T13:41:37Z
2024-03-18T13:41:37Z
Malawi and maize: prices have spiked on the back of bad weather and trade bans
<p>Maize is the <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/3bd9d66e-1614-4bdd-9971-56f44ed73455/content">leading staple</a> food in Malawi and crucial for food security. Typically, local production from smallholder farmers meets and exceeds annual requirements of around <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/amid-maize-bumper-harvests-malawi-food-insecurity-reigns#:%7E:text=Malawi's%20annual%20maize%20requirement%20is,opposite%20has%20been%20the%20case.">3 million metric tonnes</a>.</p>
<p>The country, however, is currently facing a crisis with <a href="https://response.reliefweb.int/malawi/food-security/reports">4.4 million Malawians (22% of the population)</a> being food insecure. </p>
<p>This is due firstly to a poor harvest in 2023. The subsequent shortages led to a spike in prices which hit households hard. Such severe impacts on households could have been avoided, however, with <a href="https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/800690-01-ACF-Position-Papers-COP27-Food-Prices-05.pdf">more integrated regional</a> markets to buffer against such shocks.</p>
<p>We analysed the dynamics behind these developments. We concluded that regional trade was not working well. Supply shocks driven by extreme weather were exacerbated by ad hoc trade bans and by apparent market speculation.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/enforcing-competition-would-ease-food-price-hikes-in-east-and-southern-africa-182879">Enforcing competition would ease food price hikes in east and southern Africa</a>
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<p>These factors added hundreds of millions of dollars to the total costs of maize for ordinary Malawians from August 2023 to January 2024. Our calculations indicate that households incurred additional spending of around US$200 million due to the elevated maize prices. Prices were elevated by <a href="https://sway.cloud.microsoft/W8DD8rBEbGpa6pOG?ref=Link">50%</a>, in the period when most households in Malawi had to purchase maize as <a href="https://massp.ifpri.info/files/2024/02/Working-Paper-45-Welfare-impacts-of-seasonal-maize-price-fluctuations-in-Malawi.pdf">smallholders had exhausted their own production</a>. Sharp price hikes have been seen in earlier years, such as in <a href="https://www.competition.org.za/s/AMO_Price-tracker-18_Oct_14112022.pdf">Kenya in late 2022</a>, for similar reasons.</p>
<p>These numbers should be sounding a loud warning for expected supply volatility in future. Our view is that stakeholders, together with the national and regional competition authorities, should monitor markets and advocate for fair prices. They should intervene where appropriate if there are signs of anti-competitive conduct.</p>
<h2>The dynamics</h2>
<p>Trade from neighbours with good harvests could have mitigated the impact of supply shocks. </p>
<p>In 2023, facing high fertilizer prices, <a href="https://sway.cloud.microsoft/W8DD8rBEbGpa6pOG?ref=Link">Malawi imported</a> much smaller fertilizer volumes, including supplies for its <a href="https://www.nyasatimes.com/malawi-government-misses-deadline-on-aip-implementation/">Affordable Inputs Programme</a>. The <a href="https://www.mwapata.mw/_files/ugd/dd6c2f_decdb3b481b243388d835f560a28fc9d.pdf?index=true">programme</a> is a government initiative which seeks to promote food security and reduce poverty in Malawi by improving access to affordable farming inputs. The decision hurt crop yields. Maize harvests were also hit hard by <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/cyclone-freddy-malawi-aftermath#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9C%5BCyclone%20Freddy%5D%20caused%20soil,the%20productivity%20of%20agricultural%20land.">Cyclone Freddy</a> early in 2023. </p>
<p>The reduction in domestic maize supply would be expected to result in somewhat higher maize prices in Malawi. But Malawi’s neighbours in east Africa had abundant maize supply from the 2023 harvest. Prices in Malawi shouldn’t have increased above the costs of imports. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/zambia-can-meet-growing-food-demand-how-to-fix-whats-standing-in-its-way-187373">Zambia can meet growing food demand: how to fix what's standing in its way</a>
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<p>Malawi prices shot up following <a href="https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/Default.aspx?id=MI">the 2023 May harvest period</a> (Figure 1). The prices of US$650 per metric tonne were far above those of neighbouring countries (such as $250 per tonne in south-west Tanzania). In addition, the prices hugely exceeded the import parity price based on adding transport and related costs for importing into Malawi.</p>
<p>From August to October, prices continued to be marked up substantially above the import parity price of around $370 per tonne. The import parity price represents a reasonable price and is calculated using the maize prices from Tanzania and Zambia, which averaged $300 per tonne over the period, and <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/627b83c72818b8346e9227a0/1652261854313/WP+Assessing+agriculture+food+markets+in+Eastern+and+Southern+Africa+an+agenda+for+regional+competition+enforcement.pdf">transport costs of US$50-80 per tonne</a>. </p>
<p>In 2024 there are widespread concerns again about production in some southern African countries, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/dry-weather-hits-southern-africas-farmers-putting-key-maize-supplies-at-risk-how-to-blunt-the-impact-224974#:%7E:text=South%20Africa%2C%20Zambia%20and%20Zimbabwe,hit%20by%20heatwaves%20and%20dryness.">Zambia</a>, because of persisting dry weather conditions. At the same time, there is abundant production and good growing conditions in countries such as Tanzania, which remains a substantial maize net exporter, having <a href="https://dailynews.co.tz/maize-boom-in-season-of-surplus/">experienced good harvests</a>.</p>
<h2>Trade and prices</h2>
<p>The sharp reduction in prices in Malawi in November 2023 followed 40,000 tonnes of maize being <a href="https://sway.cloud.microsoft/W8DD8rBEbGpa6pOG?ref=Link">imported by the Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation</a> from Mozambique to be distributed all over the country. Prices dropped to US$458 per tonne. However, the currency depreciation of almost 50% in the same month meant that prices in local currency did not fall. </p>
<p>The currency depreciation flowed through to huge local price increases in December as prices increased in US dollar terms to their highest levels: $670 per tonne. The December increases were due in large part to <a href="https://farmersreviewafrica.com/malawi-suspends-unmilled-maize-imports-from-kenya-and-tanzania-sights-necrosis-disease/">a ban initiated by Malawi</a> on maize imports from Tanzania at the same time as Zambia was restricting maize trade to Malawi. The holders of maize stocks were able to earn staggering excess margins over the import parity prices that would have applied if trade had been possible.</p>
<p>In January 2024, maize prices declined to $446 as the trade restrictions with Tanzania were relaxed again. Market participants <a href="https://sway.cloud.microsoft/W8DD8rBEbGpa6pOG?ref=Link">reported an influx of maize</a> into the market from imports and traders with storage facilities. Even though prices declined in January, they were still inconsistent with fair market outcomes. </p>
<h2>Harm to consumers</h2>
<p>The highest prices from August to December coincided with the period when in a normal year most households in rural areas have exhausted their own produce and would have to <a href="https://massp.ifpri.info/files/2024/02/Working-Paper-45-Welfare-impacts-of-seasonal-maize-price-fluctuations-in-Malawi.pdf">buy additional maize</a>. </p>
<p>On average each person in Malawi <a href="https://massp.ifpri.info/files/2024/02/Working-Paper-45-Welfare-impacts-of-seasonal-maize-price-fluctuations-in-Malawi.pdf">consumes about 9.5kg of maize per month</a>. With an average overcharge on maize in the order of $200 per tonne, which is calculated as the difference between the prevailing price in Malawi and the import parity price, this means that <a href="https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/3818/download/49047">an average household of 4.3 people</a> spent an additional $8 per month to maintain their consumption. This assumes that the increases are passed through by millers. The cost shock also affects animal feed, affecting prices of foods such as poultry and eggs, which has not been considered in this analysis.</p>
<p>In conclusion, the sustained excess margins in Malawi indicate that regional trade is not working well. Supply shocks, such as those due to extreme weather, are exacerbated by ad hoc trade bans as well as by apparent market speculation, as conveyed to us by market participants.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225361/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Roberts works for the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED) at the University of Johannesburg and is an advisor to the Shamba Centre for Food and Climate which has provided funding for CCRED's research on African food markets. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Namhla Landani works for the African Market Observatory (AMO), an initiative of the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development at the University of Johannesburg. The AMO receives funding from the Shamba Centre for Food and Climate for research on African Food Markets.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olwethu Shedi works for the African Market Observatory (AMO), an initiative of the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development housed at the University of Johannesburg. The AMO receives funding from the Shamba Centre for Food and Climate.</span></em></p>
Approximately 22% of Malawians are food insecure, partly because of the poor maize harvest in 2023.
Simon Roberts, Professor of Economics and Lead Researcher, Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, UJ, University of Johannesburg
Namhla Landani, Economist at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/204243
2023-05-08T06:13:21Z
2023-05-08T06:13:21Z
Farmers in South Africa face power cuts and a weak rand - but a number of factors are working in their favour too
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523770/original/file-20230502-18-sne03b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">All of South Africa's wheat production takes place during the winter months</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Winter is an important season for South African agriculture, with some of its key field crops being produced during the cold months of June, July and August, and maturing after that, with harvesting in December. Preparation of the land for winter crops begins in April, which is also the same time harvesting of the summer crops begins.</p>
<p>Farmers in the Western and Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo and other winter crop growing regions are making arrangements for growing winter wheat, canola, barley and oats. </p>
<p>All of the country’s wheat production takes place during the winter months, making the winter season an important contributor to the country’s wheat needs. South Africa produces <a href="https://www.namc.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/South-African-Supply-Demand-Estimates-March-2023-report.pdf">roughly 60% of its wheat requirements and imports the balance</a>. It also produces, on average, about <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Feb-23-Wintergrain-SnD.pdf">90% of its barley annual consumption</a>. Domestic production of oats is about <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Feb-23-Wintergrain-SnD.pdf">64% of annual consumption</a>. The country is <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Feb-23-Oilseeds-SnD.pdf">self sufficient in canola production</a>. Barley, oats and canola are all winter crops. </p>
<p>This year, the outlook for winter crops is clouded by a difficult operating environment, especially the areas that are under irrigation. </p>
<p>The two biggest headwinds are power cuts and dollar strength. Nevertheless, there are also positives which should take the pressure off food price rises that have hit consumers hard. These positives include a fall in the cost of inputs, like fertiliser and agrochemicals, as well as good harvests from the summer season just ending.</p>
<h2>Headwinds</h2>
<p>The main contributing factor is the increase in recurring power cuts which will affect irrigation. South Africa’s agriculture has never faced a period of power cuts as severe as the current ones.</p>
<p>The agricultural sector in general is heavily reliant on sustainable energy. For example, recent work by the <a href="https://www.bfap.co.za/">Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP)</a> shows that roughly a third of South Africa’s farming income is directly dependent on irrigation. This shows that disruptions in power supply generally puts at risk a substantive share of the South African agricultural fortunes.</p>
<p>Of all South Africa’s field crops, wheat has the largest production – <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/agbiz-calls-for-less-loadshedding-in-areas-under-irrigation-2023-01-23">about half</a> – under irrigation. Of the other key field crops, <a href="https://wandilesihlobo.com/2023/01/18/loadshedding-is-disrupting-sa-agriculture-and-agribusiness-activities/">about 15% of soybeans, 20% of maize and 34% of sugar production are under irrigation</a>.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>The potential disruption of irrigation would lead to poor yields, and ultimately a poor harvest. Such an eventuality would lead to an increase in wheat imports. </p>
<p>Industry role-players and the government are alert to the problem and are monitoring the impact closely through a <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/task-team-monitor-impact-load-shedding-agriculture-sector">ministerial task team</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/">Eskom</a>, the power monopoly, along with the government, are exploring possibilities of reducing <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-crisis-going-off-the-grid-works-for-the-wealthy-but-could-deepen-injustice-for-the-poor-200288">power cuts</a> which are expected to spike during the winter when demand usually rises.</p>
<p>The second headwind is that South African farmers have not benefited fully from the decline over the past year in the US dollar prices of some of their key inputs such as agrochemicals. This is because of the weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, shaving off some of the benefits of the price decline in US dollar terms.</p>
<p>Thirdly, farmers are experiencing lower commodity prices compared with last year. But a drop in input prices is providing a necessary financial cushion.</p>
<h2>There are positives</h2>
<p>On the plus side, the area plantings for all South Africa’s major crops are expected to be above the five-year average area. This is according to <a href="https://www.sagis.org.za/cec.html">Crop Estimates Committee</a>, a government and industry body that monitors crop production.</p>
<p>Secondly, input prices have come off from last year’s highs. For example, in February 2023, essential agrochemicals such as glyphosate, acetochlor, and atrazine were down in rand terms by <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Chemical-and-Fertilizer-Report_Mrt-2023.pdf">32%, 18%, and 2%</a>, respectively compared to February 2022. These price declines have continued through to March 2023. </p>
<p>These declines would have been higher had the South African Rand not weakened against the US dollar over the same period. That’s because in US dollar terms, the prices of the very same agrochemicals are down by 30% from February 2022. Prices of insecticides and fungicides have also declined notably from last year’s levels.</p>
<p>Also worth noting is that in February 2023, essential fertilisers such as ammonia, urea, di-ammonium phosphate and potassium chloride were down <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Chemical-and-Fertilizer-Report_Mrt-2023.pdf">6%, 36%, 28% and 14% in rand terms</a>, respectively. Again, in US dollar terms, the price decline was more notable, which speaks to the impact of the relatively weaker South African rand on imported products.</p>
<p>These price changes in inputs are vital as they impact vast components of the grain input costs. For example, fertiliser accounts for a third of grain farmers’ input costs, while other agrochemicals account for roughly 13%. </p>
<p>A third positive factor is that the weather conditions for the winter crops also remain positive. In its <a href="https://www.weathersa.co.za/home/seasonalclimate">Seasonal Climate Watch update</a> published on 03 April 2023, the South African Weather Service <a href="https://www.ingwelala.co.za/archives/news-archives/seasonal-climate-watch.html">noted</a> that the winter crop growing regions of South Africa will receive rains.</p>
<p>A fourth positive factor is that the summer crops, which are nearing the harvest process, are in reasonably good condition. I generally expect an ample harvest in most summer crops, which is aligned with the view of the <a href="https://www.sagis.org.za/cec.html">Crop Estimates Committee</a>.</p>
<h2>Takeways</h2>
<p>From a consumer perspective, developments are broadly positive and bode well for some moderation in consumer food price inflation in the second half of the year, when the decline in commodity prices could begin to filter into the retail prices. </p>
<p>The one major risk is electricity stability. This is as much a risk for farmers as it is for consumers.</p>
<p>However, I am hopeful that the government’s interventions, such as the load curtailment and diesel rebate, to limit the damage of the electricity crisis to food production will help. </p>
<p>If the government’s proposed interventions help during irrigation periods – afternoons and evenings – South Africans can expect a favourable winter season. The reduction in power cuts will also be particularly beneficial for food processors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204243/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and a member of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC).</span></em></p>
A third of South Africa’s farming income depends on irrigation. Disruptions in power supply put huge chunks of the country’s agricultural fortunes at risk.
Wandile Sihlobo, Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/186809
2022-08-02T14:08:41Z
2022-08-02T14:08:41Z
Subsidies for African farmers: we’ve designed a tool to guide spending decisions
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475680/original/file-20220722-19-e8b83d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C26%2C4443%2C2926&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Algorithm can help farmers and governments make smart farming decisions.
Photo by Kola Sulaimon/AFP via Getty Images.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/farmer-harvest-maize-from-his-farm-after-relocating-to-a-news-photo/1234769628?adppopup=true">from www,gettyimages.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the hardest decisions a government must make is who to support with the limited public funds at its disposal. In recent years the largest countries in sub-Saharan Africa have spent between <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919217308618">14% and 26%</a> of combined annual public expenditures on agriculture. </p>
<p>This reflects the fact that governments have prioritised access to fertiliser for rural smallholders.</p>
<p>The purpose of the programmes is to support smallholders so they can supply the growing food needs of the continent. However, governments’ budgets are limited and <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/fertilizer-prices-expected-remain-higher-longer#:%7E:text=Fertilizer%20prices%20have%20risen%20nearly,and%20export%20restrictions%20(China).">fertiliser prices are increasing</a>. </p>
<p>As fertiliser programmes become more costly, what should governments do? </p>
<p>In a recently <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00493-z">published paper</a> I set out to answer this question with two of my colleagues, Ellen McCullough at the University of Georgia and Julianne Quinn at the University of Virginia.</p>
<p>We designed a tool that can support decisions about fertiliser use across sub-Saharan Africa. We did this by focusing on a farmer’s internal rate of return from using fertiliser. The concept of a farmer’s returns is complicated because growing crops is inherently uncertain. Farmers must plant seeds and use fertiliser before they know how good the weather will be or what price they will get for their harvest.</p>
<p>Our model accommodates these complexities by applying machine learning algorithms to data on maize crop trials, weather and soil. </p>
<p>Our hope is that the support tool we have designed helps governments answer tough questions such as who to target – and how – when budgetary resources are limited. </p>
<p>We believe that better targeted policies can improve food security across the continent. </p>
<h2>What we built</h2>
<p>To model the yield response to fertiliser we compiled numerous maize trial data sets spanning 17 countries over 13 years and eight agroecological zones. </p>
<p>We matched all 21,000 of our trial observations with their corresponding growing conditions, like temperatures and precipitation in the months following planting. We also matched them with a newly available geospatial data set of soil characteristics (<a href="http://africasoils.net/">Africa Soil Information Service</a>). </p>
<p>Next, we modelled the yield response to these climate and site characteristics. We used this model to simulate the returns on investing in fertiliser across sub-Saharan Africa’s maize-growing regions. </p>
<p>We found that on average, use of fertiliser results in a 1,800 kg/ha increase in maize yields. But the response varied considerably from year to year and within and between locations. </p>
<p>Armed with these yield responses, we modelled site level farmer profitability across sub-Saharan Africa. The model simulated weather variables that influence maize yield response to fertiliser, and fertiliser and maize prices that influence profitability. </p>
<p>This allowed us to estimate how investing in fertiliser would affect returns in simulated years across maize-growing locations in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<h2>A decision support tool to assist policy makers</h2>
<p>Often, high-level decisions about fertiliser subsidies are made by looking at average profits. In other words, if an investment returns a certain amount over a span of years, it is an acceptable investment. </p>
<p>But we propose that decision makers view the decision differently. </p>
<p>We determined which regions were “robustly profitable”. We defined these as areas achieving at least a 30% return on investment in at least 70% of the years. (Decision makers could insert different thresholds into the model if they desired.) </p>
<p>These would be the regions where promoting fertiliser to smallholder farmers would make the most sense. </p>
<p>We compared these regions with those defined to be profitable based on a “naive” definition of an average of 30% over all years. This definition is commonly used in the literature and is often the basis of blanket fertiliser recommendations. But it ignores how frequently farmers may face returns below a threshold and therefore be unwilling to take on the risk of the investment.</p>
<p>In about 25% of locations in sub-Saharan Africa our “robust profitability” criteria produced a different profitability assessment than the business-as-usual approach of focusing on average returns. </p>
<p>But what about rising fertiliser prices?</p>
<p>We analysed sensitivity by changing each of the variables in the yield and profitability model. For example, we adjusted certain inputs, such as the price of fertiliser, pH of the soil and the amount of precipitation. </p>
<p>The purpose of an exercise like this is to understand which factors affect profitability the most. If changes in precipitation produce the greatest change in profitability at a particular site, then investments in irrigation may be the best policy for that location. </p>
<p>If soil characteristics are most limiting, then investing in soil health might be the most effective intervention. </p>
<p>In areas where the crop to fertiliser price ratio is the factor that controls profitability the most, subsidising fertilisers could be the most helpful policy.</p>
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<img alt="The African map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475678/original/file-20220722-20-obarp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=287&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 1: (a) Regions of sub-Saharan Africa where fertiliser adoption for maize is robustly profitable (rate of return exceeds 30% in at least 70% of simulated years), naively profitable (rate of return at least 30% on average over all simulated years), both, or neither. (b) Most important factor influencing fertiliser profitability for maize throughout sub-Saharan Africa.
Figure 1b shows the geographic distribution of what factor was the most important for farmer profitability.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Figure adapted from McCullough et al. (2022)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many regions are most sensitive to prices (green in Figure 1b). But these tend to be the same regions that are already robustly profitable and probably don’t need additional fertiliser subsidies. </p>
<p>Regions that are never profitable (red areas in Figure 1a) tend to be the most sensitive to soil pH (orange in Figure 1b). Soil amendments – such as liming – may be the most effective policy response in these areas. </p>
<p>Precipitation does not show up as the most important factor in any region in Figure 1b. This is not to say that precipitation is not important. But, at sites where fertiliser use is never profitable, changes in soil variables could more readily influence profitability than changes in precipitation. </p>
<p>This may be due to the way soil variables interact with precipitation to influence maize yield response to fertiliser. Fortunately these effects can be achieved first by changing the soil rather than through irrigation. </p>
<p>Farming is a complicated and uncertain endeavour. The tool we designed helps decision makers juggle these complexities. Understanding which factors affect the robust profitability of farmers the most will – hopefully – lead to a better distribution of resources and food security outcomes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research presented here was funded by the International Food Policy Research Institute and the National Science Foundation Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship (IGERT) program.</span></em></p>
Algorithms can help determine what farm inputs and policies can boost food production.
Andrew M. Simons, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Fordham University, Fordham University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/187373
2022-07-28T14:38:02Z
2022-07-28T14:38:02Z
Zambia can meet growing food demand: how to fix what’s standing in its way
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475418/original/file-20220721-10361-ayd9br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lorries blocked at the border between DRC and Zambia. Poor roads are a major stumbling block to trade.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lucien Kahozi/AFP via Getty Images)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>African countries face great challenges in adapting to climate change to meet growing demand for food. The current <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/africa-drought-food-starvation/">drought in East Africa</a> is the latest manifestation of changing weather patterns.</p>
<p>But countries such as Zambia, where there is <a href="https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/w/country/zambia">good land and water</a>, have major opportunities to meet food demand by growing agriculture exports and processing their produce. Zambian farmers can earn substantial returns from increased production. Their production can also alleviate the pressures in countries such as Kenya.</p>
<p>To realise these opportunities, Zambian products have to reach export markets at good prices. For this, Zambia needs competitive cross-border markets and efficient transport and logistics services. However, regional grain and oilseeds trade is not working for producers in Zambia or for buyers in East Africa, with huge variances in agricultural commodity prices in Kenya and in Zambia.</p>
<p><a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/627b83c72818b8346e9227a0/1652261854313/WP+Assessing+agriculture+food+markets+in+Eastern+and+Southern+Africa+an+agenda+for+regional+competition+enforcement.pdf">Our reality check</a> on the workings of cross-border markets points to regional integration being the key to unlocking massive potential for Zambia to anchor sustainable agricultural growth in Africa. But effective regional integration remains a dream, undermining Zambia’s potential. </p>
<h2>How are markets really working for Zambia?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341904098_Agriculture_as_a_Determinant_of_Zambian_Economic_Sustainability">Zambian agriculture</a> has been a growth story with expanding net exports in important products such as <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/627b83c72818b8346e9227a0/1652261854313/WP+Assessing+agriculture+food+markets+in+Eastern+and+Southern+Africa+an+agenda+for+regional+competition+enforcement.pdf">soybeans</a>. However, this performance is very short of where it should be. Zambia should be the grain basket for the whole region. Malawi has shown what is possible in <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/620fb231a08ee67644acc686/1645195827213/Price+tracker+9+DRAFT+14022022.pdf">soybeans</a>. It almost doubled production in 2019/2020, to <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data">421,000 tonnes</a>, <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data">more than Zambia</a> in that year.</p>
<p>A major issue is how cross-border markets are working, or not working. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335912204_Soya_Beans_Production_in_Zambia_Opportunities_and_Challenges">Zambian suppliers report</a> having substantial volumes of soybeans which can meet the huge regional demand. </p>
<p>Market prices for maize in Nairobi climbed to over <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/62cd4f8496b1364d48c7548e/1657622405695/AMO_Price+tracker+14_12072022.pdf">US$500/Mt in June 2022</a>, reaching similar levels in Kampala, Uganda (Figure 1). In early July, prices were reported to have climbed well above <a href="http://kamis.kilimo.go.ke/">US$750/Mt</a> in Kenya. Meanwhile prices in <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/62cd4f8496b1364d48c7548e/1657622405695/AMO_Price+tracker+14_12072022.pdf">Zambia</a> were around US$220/Mt or 3,700 kwacha/Mt.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475123/original/file-20220720-24-jxsqfz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475123/original/file-20220720-24-jxsqfz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475123/original/file-20220720-24-jxsqfz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475123/original/file-20220720-24-jxsqfz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475123/original/file-20220720-24-jxsqfz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475123/original/file-20220720-24-jxsqfz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475123/original/file-20220720-24-jxsqfz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Though lower than Kenya’s, Zambian maize prices are still substantially higher than last year’s. This is in line with <a href="https://www.sagis.org.za/swb_2022.html">global trends</a>. With higher input costs, farmers need higher output prices to incentivise production.</p>
<p>The gap between prices in Zambia and those in Nairobi and Kampala is close to US$300/Mt. This is double what would be explained by the efficient cost of transporting maize from Zambia to these countries. Efficient transport costs take account of reasonable trucking, logistics and border costs.</p>
<p>Even with the higher fuel costs, grain should cost around US$150/Mt to be transported from Lusaka to Kampala and Nairobi. Of course, quoted transport rates may be much higher, but this reflects the many problems in cross-border transport which need to be addressed.</p>
<p>The situation is even more extreme in soybeans, which are a much higher value commodity. Zambia’s bumper soybean harvest in 2022 was being sold at prices around US$550/Mt in June, with prices even being quoted as low as US$439/Mt at the end of the month. Prices in East Africa were well over US$1,000/Mt, some US$500-700/Mt above those in Zambia. This is three to four times the transport costs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475124/original/file-20220720-9522-pk6d40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475124/original/file-20220720-9522-pk6d40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475124/original/file-20220720-9522-pk6d40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475124/original/file-20220720-9522-pk6d40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475124/original/file-20220720-9522-pk6d40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475124/original/file-20220720-9522-pk6d40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475124/original/file-20220720-9522-pk6d40.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In other words, producers in Zambia should be getting more for their crops and buyers in East Africa should be paying less, alleviating the food price spikes there. </p>
<h2>How can this be and what is to be done?</h2>
<p>A combination of factors is undermining the growth of Zambia. </p>
<p>First, reliable market information is required to link buyers and suppliers, and to enable markets to work. In the absence of information, it’s risky to export. This lack of information affects small and medium sized farmers and businesses. Large-scale traders who have operations across the region have an advantage over smaller businesses and farmers because they have private information. </p>
<p>Second, the market players require clear trade policy signals to take advantage of export opportunities. Any hesitation or mixed signals tend to undermine the ability to make deals with confidence. It is therefore important for Zambia’s new government not to impose ad hoc trade restrictions, for example, as the previous government did in August 2021 to restrict maize exports. Such restrictions, imposed and lifted from month to month, mean deals cannot be made with the confidence that they can be fulfilled. </p>
<p>Third, the market opportunities in East Africa require urgent regional co-operation to improve transport corridors on the ground rather than in rhetoric.</p>
<p>Malawian soybean suppliers have shown the value. Small suppliers have already been using the <a href="https://www.competition.org.za/africanmarketobservatory">African Market Observatory data</a> on East African prices in 2022 to negotiate better prices for their exports. This increased realised prices by around <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/62cd4f8496b1364d48c7548e/1657622405695/AMO_Price+tracker+14_12072022.pdf">$200/Mt</a> more than they would otherwise have accepted.</p>
<p>Zambian farmers could reap similar benefits too. This would support a big push in production, enabling Zambian farmers to invest in improved agricultural systems. This is even more essential as next year is likely to be another <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-nina-is-forecast-to-impact-global-agriculture-for-a-third-year-in-a-row">La Niña</a> weather pattern which sees good rains in Zambia and poor rains in parts of East Africa and the Horn of Africa. </p>
<p>The ongoing effects of climate change mean more investment is required to make agriculture resilient. This involves investments in water management, irrigation, storage facilities, advice and information systems. </p>
<p>The vulnerability of the whole of Southern and East Africa as a climate “hotspot” means urgent and coordinated regional action is required. </p>
<p>But Zambia doesn’t have to wait for this action. </p>
<p>It can lead in championing sustainable agricultural growth in the knowledge that this is essential for resilient food supplies across the region. This requires good policies with a longer-term vision. The country needs, without any reservations, to fully back regional integration and competitive regional markets. Excessive margins cannot be captured by connected so-called “middlemen”. </p>
<p>Greater certainty for businesses needs to be accompanied by enforcement of clear rules for company power. Regional competition enforcement by the <a href="https://globalcompetitionreview.com/insight/enforcer-hub/2021/organization-profile/zambia-competition-and-consumer-protection-commission">Competition and Consumer Protection Commission of Zambia</a> together with the <a href="https://www.comesacompetition.org/">COMESA Competition Commission</a> is a key part of fair and competitive markets which work for all.</p>
<p>Investment is required in critical infrastructure such as storage for smaller market participants to use on fair terms. Finance can be mobilised, such as that being made available by the <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/press-releases/african-development-bank-board-approves-15-billion-facility-avert-food-crisis-51716">African Development Bank</a>.</p>
<p>It is essential to support regional research networks, such as those led by the <a href="https://www.devex.com/organizations/indaba-agricultural-policy-research-institute-iapri-115251">Indaba Agricultural Policy Institute</a> and the <a href="https://www.competition.org.za/africanmarketobservatory">African Market Observatory</a> of the <a href="https://www.competition.org.za/home">Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development</a> and partners.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development at the University of Johannesburg has received funding for related work from the COMESA Competition Commission and the South African Department of Trade, Industry and Competition. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Antony Chapoto and Ntombifuthi Tshabalala do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Producers in Zambia should be getting more for their crops, and buyers in East Africa should be paying less, alleviating food price spikes.
Antony Chapoto, Research Director, Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI)
Ntombifuthi Tshabalala, Economist at Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg
Simon Roberts, Professor of Economics and Lead Researcher, Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, UJ, University of Johannesburg
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/185552
2022-07-14T13:51:14Z
2022-07-14T13:51:14Z
Amazing ting: South Africa must reinvigorate sorghum as a key food before it’s lost
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/472489/original/file-20220705-17-8z9t8x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sorghum.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dusty Pixel photography/GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world’s <a href="https://www.futureoffood.ox.ac.uk/what-food-system">food systems</a> have developed in a way that is not serving health and sustainability. </p>
<p>People are increasingly eating industrially produced foods that are low in nutrients and high in fats and sugars. For example, in South Africa between 2005 and 2010, sales of snack bars, ready meals and noodles all rose by <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001253">more than 40%</a>. These are associated with <a href="https://ipes-food.org/_img/upload/files/Health_FullReport(1).pdf">increasing levels</a> of obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases like diabetes. </p>
<p>The diets of people living in poverty are typically monotonous, <a href="https://www.unicef.org/southafrica/media/551/file/ZAF-First-1000-days-brief-2017.pdf">dominated by</a> refined cereals with impacts on nutrition, especially for children. Healthy diets <a href="https://foodsecurity.ac.za/news/healthy-diet-remains-unaffordable-for-most-south-africans/">remain unaffordable</a> for most South Africans. </p>
<p>The way food is produced, processed and transported also has environmental impacts. Among these are loss of biodiversity, high levels of water extraction and greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>At the heart of the food system’s problems is a lack of diversity. Power is consolidated in the hands of a few mega-corporations. Growing single crops in a big area makes them susceptible to shocks. And the world relies on four main staple crops – <a href="https://croplife.org/news/beyond-the-big-four-staple-crops-around-the-world/">wheat, rice, maize and soybean</a> – to meet most food needs. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-highlights-africas-need-to-diversify-its-wheat-sources-181173">Russia-Ukraine crisis highlights Africa's need to diversify its wheat sources</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There have been widespread calls for the food system to change. The question is how. </p>
<p>In our research project on <a href="https://shefsglobal.lshtm.ac.uk/">sustainable and healthy food systems</a>, we set out to explore some options. We looked at the South African, English and Indian food systems and how they could become more sustainable, healthy and fair. In particular we explored how to make these systems more diverse by growing local and indigenous foods.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/8/3493">We found</a> that the benefits and value of indigenous foods in the African context have not been fully understood. Knowledge of how to use these foods is being lost from one generation to the next. </p>
<p>So we decided to do a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15528014.2021.1984631">deep dive</a> into one specific crop indigenous to the African continent: sorghum. In South Africa it’s also known by names like <em>ting ya mabele</em> and <em>amazimba</em>.</p>
<h2>Following the ting</h2>
<p>Sorghum is one of the most important cereal grains for food consumption in Africa. Africa is the world regional leader in total production of sorghum at <a href="https://one.oecd.org/document/ENV/JM/MONO(2016)27/en/pdf#page=15">25.6 million tonnes</a>, but it has the average lowest yield at 967 kilograms per hectare. It is indigenous to the continent’s savannas and there is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/359721a0">archaeological evidence</a> in the Sahara of the use of sorghum dating back 8,000 years. </p>
<p>Sorghum is <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/2305/lost-crops-of-africa-volume-i-grains">as nutritious</a> as maize and has high drought tolerance. This makes it a resilient option for farmers to plant under <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jac.12191">changing</a> climatic conditions. </p>
<p>Sorghum also has traditional significance. <a href="https://nationalmuseumpublications.co.za/umqombothi-our-african-beer/"><em>Umqombothi</em> or <em>utshwala</em></a> is a beer traditionally made from maize and sorghum by the family matriarch for special occasions. As well as traditional beer, the Tswana people of South Africa <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0168160511004260?via%3Dihub">also make</a> a fermented porridge (<em>ting ya mabele</em>) from sorghum. </p>
<p>Despite these benefits and traditional significance, production of sorghum in South Africa <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.786151/full">has declined</a>, with a peak of around 700,000 tonnes in the 1980s to a low of 100,000 in the later 2010s.</p>
<p>There is also a need to overcome its perception as a backward or “poor man’s food” and its association with drunkenness, which was reinforced during <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/history-apartheid-south-africa">apartheid</a> to denigrate indigenous food and traditional practices.</p>
<p>From <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15528014.2021.1984631">encounters</a> with a range of South Africans connected through sorghum by either its consumption, processing or production, we learned of <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.786151/full">three key interventions</a> that could be made to reinvigorate this food. They involve availability, affordability and appeal.</p>
<h2>New life for sorghum</h2>
<p>There is a need to focus research on improving sorghum production in collaboration with small scale farmers to allow them to adapt to new local conditions under climate change. This can also improve yields to be more competitive with maize, which has globally received a lot more research funding for crop improvement.</p>
<p>Making sorghum a zero-rated tax foodstuff so that it can compete with maize on the shelf could make it more competitive. As a rough comparison, the cheapest house brand mabele meal product in one retailer’s online store is R26.99 (US$1.58) for 2kg, whereas a brand of maizemeal is R22.49 (US$1.32) for 2.5kg. </p>
<h2>Innovation meets tradition</h2>
<p>Another important intervention is around product innovation and, through this, increase in demand, to offer a more guaranteed market to farmers. Once local production can be increased, this should reduce dependence on sorghum imports. As a respondent in <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.786151/full">our research</a> said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If sorghum can be bought at the same price as maize, then people will start to shift their consumption because of its health benefits and because its indigenous heritage has marketing potential.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another respondent said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>You need to create aspirational products. It shouldn’t be considered poor man’s food – if you ask many people in (South Africa) about sorghum, they come up with two associations: beer and the ‘drunk uncle’; and poor man’s food, ‘porridge’.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sorghum products – newly developed ones and reconfigurations of traditional gastronomy – must meet modern consumers’ need for convenience and aspirational preferences. Then there could be a revolution in the sorghum market. Public procurement of sorghum, for example in schools, could not only teach children about these crops, but provide a more diversified and healthy diet – while enabling a market for farmers. As a third respondent told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Most people have a positive story about sorghum – we need to tap into tradition and culture … People remember things – what grandmother would eat. There is a lot of marketing in the stories – it’s tradition. It’s gogo (grandmother). </p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>Ting ya mabele</em> is now registered on <a href="https://www.fondazioneslowfood.com/en/ark-of-taste-slow-food/ting-ya-mabele/">Slow Food’s Ark of Taste</a>. This features a collection of artisanal products steeped in culture, but also at risk of extinction as the traditional practices upon which they are based are lost or the species from which they are made become endangered. </p>
<p>The potential loss of sorghum from the South African food system has implications not only for climate adaptation and agro-biodiversity, but for nutrition security, cultural practices and a sense of identity.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15528014.2021.1984631">Our research</a> highlights that a strong cultural link to sorghum remains in South Africa. If an enabling policy environment for research and innovation could be broadly interpreted, this might invigorate a richer engagement with sorghum. Not just as a commodity, but as a culturally significant food that could help build resilience in local food systems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185552/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Pereira receives funding from the Wellcome Trust through the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems
(SHEFS) Project Grant number-205200/Z/16/Z); the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from the CGIAR Trust Fund and through bilateral funding agreements (See <a href="https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors">https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors</a>); the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant Number 115300); the Swedish Research Council FORMAS Project No 2020-00670; the Exxaro Chairman's fund and the Future Ecosystems For Africa programme at the University of the Witwatersrand in partnership with Oppenheimer Generations Research and Conservation
</span></em></p>
Known as ting or amazimba, indigenous sorghum is resilient and rich in cultural and health benefits – yet crops are declining.
Laura Pereira, Associate professor, Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/183065
2022-05-25T13:26:04Z
2022-05-25T13:26:04Z
Kenya’s push for a purely formal seed system could be bad for farmers
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463312/original/file-20220516-15-x942bb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Maize grown in a small-scale farm.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alexander Joe/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Kenya’s government wants farmers to grow crops from <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/farmers-turn-to-indigenous-seed-banks-as-kenya-restricts-informal-trade-102945">licensed seeds</a> only. These are hybrid seeds that are certified free of various seed-borne pests and diseases. The <a href="http://kenyalaw.org/kl/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/Acts/SeedsandPlantVarietiesActCap326.pdf">Seeds and Plant Varieties Act</a> makes it a crime to plant and exchange uncertified seeds. But many small-scale farmers rely on informal exchanges of seeds with their neighbours to secure their food supply. We spoke to Oliver Kirui, whose research focuses on agricultural and economic transformation policies, for insights into the implications of banning informal seed exchanges in Kenya.</em></p>
<h2>What are formal and informal seed exchanges?</h2>
<p>In the formal channel of seed exchanges, a registered seed company manages the production, processing and packaging – and sometimes even distribution – of seeds. This channel provides an idea of what to expect from harvests. </p>
<p>Kenya has about <a href="https://www.accesstoseeds.org/index/eastern-southern-africa/country-profile/kenya/#:%7E:text=Kenya%E2%80%99s%20seed%20industry%20is%20guided%20by%20its%20National,and%20Plant%20Varieties%20Act%20%28Cap%20326%29%20from%202016">26 registered seed companies</a> – 23 are local and three are multinational. The three are Syngenta, Monsanto and the East African Seed Company. The country’s oldest registered company is Kenya Seed Company, a state corporation established in 1956. </p>
<p>The aim of these companies is to produce and distribute superior seeds for commercial and domestic use.</p>
<p>It’s estimated that <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306919213001413?via%3Dihub">two-thirds</a> of the maize seeds planted in Kenyan farms are from formal sources. Maize is a staple food for over <a href="https://www.tegemeo.org/images/_tegemeo_institute/downloads/publications/policy_briefs/policy_brief18.pdf#:%7E:text=Maize%20is%20the%20staple%20food%20in%20Kenya%20with,for%20about%2070%20percent%20of%20the%20total%20production.">85% of the country’s population</a>. </p>
<p>The yield – or productivity – from improved or hybrid maize seeds is often <a href="https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/191055/1/104571111X.pdf">significantly higher</a> than from traditional varieties. Farmers can expect an average 87% higher yield from hybrid seeds.</p>
<p>Kenya is one of the <a href="https://tasai.org/wp-content/uploads/ken_2020_en_country_report_pub_web.pdf">leading countries in Africa</a> when it comes to formal seed distribution. </p>
<p>The second seed distribution channel is informal. This largely involves the production and exchange of seeds among small-scale farmers. This system is characterised by a lack of seed testing, formal registration or quality control. </p>
<p>Informality makes it difficult to assess the quality of seeds in farms and their harvest potential. It can potentially spread contaminated seeds and plant diseases. It could also mean that farmers are continually planting seeds that have consistently low yields. </p>
<h2>Why do informal seed exchanges exist?</h2>
<p>Informal seed exchanges exist because farmers don’t have access to quality seeds. This is because they are too costly, are unavailable in remote areas or are not available at the right time. </p>
<p>This has been an issue for generations. As a result, farmers often store a portion of their seeds after harvest, which they then plant or share with their neighbours. Sometimes this doesn’t involve an exchange of money. </p>
<p>Seed shortages in the formal system are particularly hard hitting during planting seasons. This is a reality across many small-scale farms in Kenya every year. So informality has thrived, not just because farmers prefer to share seeds, but also because of the distribution challenges they face. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-changed-when-ugandan-farmers-rated-input-quality-and-local-vendor-services-177750">What changed when Ugandan farmers rated input quality and local vendor services</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>With informal systems, farmers are sure they can get the seeds they need and when they need them.</p>
<p>Informality has other advantages. For example, it allows farmers to preserve some of the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369848615001284">genetic traits</a> they would like in a seed. </p>
<h2>What does the Kenyan law seek to address?</h2>
<p>This isn’t the first time the government has tried to use the law to fully formalise Kenya’s seed systems. </p>
<p>In 2010, the <a href="https://repository.kippra.or.ke/bitstream/handle/123456789/1102/Kenya-Seed-Policy-2010-1-1.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">National Seed Policy</a> was published and launched. It was aimed at enhancing the seed sector’s ability to provide farmers with high quality seeds. </p>
<p>In 2016, the <a href="http://kenyalaw.org/kl/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/Acts/SeedsandPlantVarietiesActCap326.pdf">Seeds and Plant Varieties Act</a> came into effect. It aims to develop, promote and regulate a <a href="https://www.accesstoseeds.org/index/eastern-southern-africa/country-profile/kenya/#:%7E:text=Kenya%E2%80%99s%20seed%20industry%20is%20guided%20by%20its%20National,and%20Plant%20Varieties%20Act%20%28Cap%20326%29%20from%202016">modern and competitive</a> seed industry.</p>
<p>Licensed seeds and companies are supposed to ensure that farmers have access to quality seeds, especially for maize and legumes, which are critical Kenyan food staples. </p>
<p>So the concern for the government, as I see it, is that the formal system can assure the country that quality seeds are circulating in the market. With informality, it’s impossible to know exactly what farmers are exchanging and planting. </p>
<h2>Implications of the push for a fully formal seed system?</h2>
<p>I think the big fear with a fully formal system is that it would lead to the rise of monopolistic seed companies. </p>
<p>The heated debates that followed the development of genetically modified and bioengineered seeds included concerns that major producers like Bayer and Corteva <a href="https://grain.org/fr/article/entries/5142-seed-laws-that-criminalise-farmers-resistance-and-fightback#1%20making%20seeds%20illegal">would limit</a> how farmers can use the varieties they sell. </p>
<p>Usually, buyers of these seeds sign agreements that prohibit them from saving seeds from their crops to exchange or resow. Yet, if these companies ran into distribution challenges, household food security would suffer. </p>
<p>Consider maize, for instance. More than 75% of Kenya’s total maize output is produced by <a href="https://basis.ucdavis.edu/publication/policy-brief-maize-technology-bundles-and-food-security-kenya">smallholder farmers</a>. If they were unable to secure maize seed, plant and harvest it, there would be <a href="https://agricultureandfoodsecurity.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/2048-7010-1-S1-S6">chaos</a> in the market.</p>
<p>To avoid this scenario, many farmers have over the years seen the need to save some seeds to grow the following cropping season. It gives them some control.</p>
<p>Aside from dealing with distribution challenges, farmers would also be required to make upfront financial investments in a fully formal system. They will need money to buy certified seeds and fertiliser. While there are microcredit facilities available, they are <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w22686">inaccessible to a majority</a> of small-scale farmers.</p>
<p>If farmers cannot afford to buy superior varieties and have no access to an alternative, it means that in six or seven months, the country can expect a harvest shortage. This has huge implications for food security at the household level.</p>
<h2>Is a fully formal system feasible?</h2>
<p>I think formalising seed systems is a good thing because it makes harvests more predictable. But banning the informal system is not the way to go. </p>
<p>In my opinion, the country should work towards a decentralised system that offers a mix of formal and informal seed distribution systems. The government should encourage seed improvements and support local communities to establish seed businesses. But farmers should have a choice. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-more-ugandan-farmers-arent-adopting-drought-tolerant-maize-144583">Why more Ugandan farmers aren't adopting drought tolerant maize</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If the government can ensure that there is enough certified seed and the costs make sense, informality will naturally reduce in the long run.</p>
<p>The other question to consider is how the government will implement this policy. It’s a very difficult thing to put into operation and monitor, and the government is unlikely to have the infrastructure to do so. This move is reminiscent of the country’s 2013 effort to ban the hawking of raw milk. The government was unable to implement the ban and it was <a href="https://www.citizen.digital/business/kenya-dairy-board-suspends-controversial-plan-to-ban-milk-hawking-237603">eventually suspended</a>. Today, 85% of the milk consumed in Kenya is raw and hawked informally.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oliver Kiptoo Kirui does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
If small-scale farmers can’t afford to grow certified seeds – or can’t find them – food shortages would follow.
Oliver Kiptoo Kirui, Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/181497
2022-04-28T13:25:44Z
2022-04-28T13:25:44Z
Rising atmospheric CO₂ may benefit maize crops: first experiment in African conditions
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458567/original/file-20220419-14-wh3qfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most maize production relies on natural rainfall, making it vulnerable to changing rainfall patterns.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global maize production is worth <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.12396">billions</a> of dollars annually and is key to global food security because it’s a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2020.617009">staple food</a> for billions of people. Most maize production relies on natural rainfall, making it vulnerable to changing rainfall patterns.</p>
<p>This limitation is <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718031115">likely to intensify</a> in the future because climate change is predicted to lead to lower rainfall in many regions. This could decrease <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718031115">yields</a> by 10% by the time global temperatures have increased by 4°C. Droughts are also <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/">predicted</a> to become more frequent and severe.</p>
<p>Higher temperatures are also predicted for many parts of the world and will have direct <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1832">effects on maize growth</a> and productivity. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Michael-Roberts-33/publication/258807246_The_critical_role_of_extreme_heat_for_maize_production_in_the_United_States/links/55aea08608aed9b7dcdda360/The-critical-role-of-extreme-heat-for-maize-production-in-the-United-States.pdf">Warming will also lead to more evaporation</a>, which means that plants lose more water. </p>
<p>But it is difficult to predict the effects of a changing climate on crop yields. That’s because the effects of rainfall and temperature can interact in complex ways. Rising carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere, which is a result of industrialisation, only adds to the uncertainty. However, as our <a href="https://academic.oup.com/aob/article-abstract/129/5/607/6524535?redirectedFrom=fulltext">new research</a> conducted in South Africa shows, it may offset some of the impacts of drying and warming on maize crops in tropical growing regions like those found in much of Africa.</p>
<h2>Why CO₂ matters</h2>
<p>CO₂ is an important resource for photosynthesis and its low availability in the atmosphere has been a major limiting factor to plant growth for millennia. This has led some plant groups, particularly grasses, to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s004420050311">evolve a photosynthetic pathway</a> that concentrates CO₂ and makes photosynthesis more efficient under low CO₂. </p>
<p>Maize also has this pathway, known as C4 photosynthesis. Under warm and humid conditions, its growth is thus not limited by CO₂ availability and so it gains no direct benefit from increasing atmospheric CO₂. However, elevated CO₂ allows plants to take up enough CO₂ while keeping their leaf pores (stomata) partially closed. This decreases plant water loss and could potentially increase the drought tolerance of maize.</p>
<p>Research has been done in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1161030111001456">Europe</a> and the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/plphys/article/140/2/779/6115032">US</a> to ascertain how elevated CO₂ might indirectly increase the productivity of C4 plants like maize. These studies found that elevated CO₂ generally had a positive effect on maize growth and compensated for water limitation and warming. However, temperatures and water stress are much higher in most of Africa and other tropical regions than in Europe and the US, raising the question of whether elevated CO₂ can help overcome reduced rainfall under these much more challenging conditions.</p>
<p>We set out to <a href="https://academic.oup.com/aob/article-abstract/129/5/607/6524535?redirectedFrom=fulltext">address this knowledge gap</a>. Through a series of experiments conducted in South Africa’s Eastern Cape province, we found that future atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are likely to benefit maize production in tropical growing regions like those found in many parts of Africa. This may extend the future land area available to rainfed maize cultivation by making maize production more water use efficient.</p>
<p>However, while CO₂ can prolong soil water availability and slow down the effect of drought on photosynthesis, it cannot compensate for a lack of rainfall entirely. Rainfall seasonality thus still plays an important role in determining where maize can be grown. With more data from tropical growing regions, our ability to predict this will increase.</p>
<h2>A series of experiments</h2>
<p>Experiments are required to predict the interacting effects of increased drought and increased CO₂ on maize yields; these studies allow scientists to manipulate each of these factors, singly and in combination. While manipulating water is fairly straightforward, experimenting with atmospheric CO₂ requires specialised and costly facilities. It is therefore not surprising that the leading experiments on the effects of temperature, water and CO₂ have been done under temperate conditions in the northern hemisphere, where research resources are concentrated.</p>
<p>In 2018, Rhodes University in South Africa launched Africa’s first large-scale elevated CO₂ plant <a href="https://www.ru.ac.za/ruecf/">research facility</a>. Here, in special open-top chambers, we exposed six different maize cultivars bred for South African climates to drought and watering treatments under ambient and elevated CO₂, and at elevated temperatures.</p>
<p>Plants were grown over the summer season and were either irrigated daily or left to grow with only the little rainfall that fell naturally. The study area has too little summer rainfall to be a viable maize growing region; this allowed us to simulate the effects of drought under hot and dry summer conditions.</p>
<p>To examine the effect of atmospheric CO₂, we compared current conditions of 400 parts per million (ppm) to those <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/">predicted</a> to occur towards the end of the 21st century (800 ppm). The air temperature in the open-top chambers was 4-5°C higher than ambient, which is in line with future climate <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/">predictions</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458566/original/file-20220419-24-4dbirn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458566/original/file-20220419-24-4dbirn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458566/original/file-20220419-24-4dbirn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458566/original/file-20220419-24-4dbirn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458566/original/file-20220419-24-4dbirn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458566/original/file-20220419-24-4dbirn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458566/original/file-20220419-24-4dbirn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=643&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Study co-author Tebadi Burgess (née Bopape) holds maize plants that she grew at either current or future atmospheric CO₂ concentrations with and without drought.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors supplied</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Findings</h2>
<p>Under ambient CO₂ and without watering, plants had very low yields. Irrigated plants at elevated CO₂ had nearly four time higher yields. </p>
<p>Adding elevated CO₂ to unwatered plants resulted in the same growth and yield as irrigation at ambient CO₂. This shows that elevated CO₂ had the same effect on plants as daily irrigation and thus completely compensated for drought. When given additional CO₂, plants needed less water, because they could partially close their leaf pores and avoid water loss.</p>
<p>Irrigated maize yields increased with added CO₂. This suggests that even under irrigation, hot and dry weather can cause water stress and reduce productivity.</p>
<p>This research shows that future atmospheric CO₂ concentrations could help alleviate the effects of warming and drought, even for irrigated production. However, more research is needed to determine the effects of intermediate CO₂ concentrations between 400 and 800 ppm, which will be experienced between now and the end of the century. Data on the effects of other variables, such a soil type and severity of climate, are also needed to calibrate realistic models to forecast future maize production.</p>
<p><em>Tebadi Burgess (nee Bopape), an MSc graduate, co-authored the research on which this article is based.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181497/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Ripley receives funding from Applied Centre for Climate & Earth Systems Science (ACCESS), Rhodes Unversity and Grain SA.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susanne Vetter receives funding from the Applied Centre for Climate & Earth Systems Science (ACCESS) and Rhodes University.</span></em></p>
Rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may be a boon for maize crops in tropical growing regions like those found in much of Africa.
Brad Ripley, Professor, Department of Botany, Rhodes University
Susanne Vetter, Associate Professor, Department of Botany, Rhodes University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/181487
2022-04-26T13:01:28Z
2022-04-26T13:01:28Z
Changes in sub-Saharan maize trade spell potential trouble for Kenya
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/459057/original/file-20220421-20-ygw9el.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kenya is expected to import 700,000 tonnes of maize for 2022/23</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Maize production in some of the sub-Saharan African countries that <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/zambia/southern-africa-regional-maize-supply-and-market-outlook-august-31-2021">dominated maize supplies</a> during the 2021/22 marketing year is expected to be lower this coming season. This will bring about some changes in the sub continent’s maize trade in the 2022/23 marketing year, in particular creating complications for Kenya. In the 2021/22 season, Kenya was the largest maize importer in the region.</p>
<p>But Kenya has a longstanding policy against genetically engineered maize. This limits the role of South Africa, the sub-continent’s biggest maize producer and exporter, in meeting Kenya’s needs.</p>
<p>The expected lower production comes in a season when demand for maize from countries in sub-Saharan Africa that rely heavily on imports is expected to remain strong. It’s estimated that Kenya, for example, will need to import <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Nairobi_Kenya_KE2022-0002.pdf">700,000 tonnes of maize for 2022/23</a>. Kenya’s maize production is expected to be marginally higher, but not enough to meet the country’s needs.</p>
<p>Kenya is typically one of the major maize importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The country’s expected 700,000 tonnes of maize imports <a href="https://www.igc.int/en/default.aspx">account for 21% of the region’s expected maize imports</a> of 3.4 million tonnes in 2021/22 season, according to data from the International Grains Council. Other typical maize importing countries include Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique and Namibia.</p>
<p>However, in the 2021/22 marketing year, several sub-Saharan African countries such as Zambia, Tanzania, Zimbabwe (an exceptional year from the usual importing position) and South Africa <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/zambia/southern-africa-regional-maize-supply-and-market-outlook-august-31-2021">had ample maize harvest</a>. This made it easy for them to meet Kenya’s import needs. Tanzania and Zambia were the leading maize suppliers to Kenya.</p>
<p>Tanzania, the biggest exporter in the region in the 2020/2021 season and Kenya’s traditional major maize supplier, is unlikely to play that role this season because its maize production is forecast <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Dar%20Es%20Salaam_Tanzania_TZ2022-0001.pdf">to fall by 16%</a> year-on-year to 5.9 million tonnes. This is due to drought at the start of the season, combined with armyworm infestations and reduced fertiliser usage in some regions because of prohibitively higher prices. The consequence of the fall in production and firmer domestic consumption means that the country could have less maize for export markets.</p>
<p><a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Dar%20Es%20Salaam_Tanzania_TZ2022-0001.pdf">Preliminary estimates</a> by the United States Department of Agriculture are that Tanzania’s maize exports could decline from 800,000 tonnes in the 2021/22 marketing year to 100,000 tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year.</p>
<p>Such a drop would leave very little for Kenya’s maize needs, leaving Zambia and South Africa as major suppliers in the region.</p>
<p>Zambia’s expected maize production in the <a href="https://www.africa.com/zambia-when-crop-dreams-are-crushed/">current season is still tentative</a>, and it is unclear how much maize the country could have for exports. Zimbabwe, which had a <a href="https://theconversation.com/zimbabwe-had-a-bumper-harvest-what-went-right-and-what-needs-work-167307#:%7E:text=Zimbabwe%20has%20reported%20a%20bumper,stands%20at%202.7%20million%20tonnes.">large harvest in 2020/21 season</a>, is also in an uncertain position about its 2021/22 maize harvest and ability to export. The <a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Zimbabwe%20-%20Key%20Message%20Update_%20Wed%2C%202022-03-30.pdf">incoming evidence</a> suggest that some regions in the country have suffered crop failures.</p>
<p>South Africa could help and has the maize production capacity to do so. Given <a href="https://www.namc.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/South-African-Supply-Demand-Estimates-_30-March-2022.pdf">current output projections of 14.7 million tonnes</a>, South Africa could have 3.2 million tons of maize for exports in the 2022/23 season – about 78% being yellow maize, and 22% white maize. But it plays a limited role in the Kenyan maize market.</p>
<h2>The barriers</h2>
<p>South Africa’s limited participation in the Kenyan maize market is arguably affected by regulations rather than just price and consumer preferences. Kenya continues to <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Nairobi_Kenya_KE2022-0002.pdf">maintain an import ban on genetically engineered products.</a>. This limits imports from South Africa <a href="https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2021/06/south-africa-has-reaped-major-benefits-from-gm-maize-study-finds/">where over 80% of maize production is genetically engineered</a>. </p>
<p>There are <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Nairobi_Kenya_KE2022-0002.pdf">indications</a> that Kenya is changing its longstanding policy. Regulatory agencies have recently completed all trials for the approval of biotechnology maize. But any decision would still have to be approved by Kenya’s cabinet.</p>
<p>Even if Kenya were to adjust its policy, South Africa would not necessarily be the only maize supplier looking at expanding its market share in the country. The likes of the US and Brazil would also be at Kenya’s doorstep. The advantage of South Africa would be its substantial white maize production, which is the preferred staple grain of Kenyan consumers.</p>
<p>Outside the African continent, Mexico, the US and Argentina could be among the potential maize suppliers, as there are generally <a href="https://repository.cimmyt.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10883/755/66084.pdf?sequence=1">few white maize producing countries in the world</a>. </p>
<h2>Imbalances</h2>
<p>The sub-Saharan Africa maize trade generally has some imbalances. South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia are the major maize producers and exporters in the region. For their part Kenya, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Mozambique are often the importers.</p>
<p>At the regional level, sub-Saharan Africa’s aggregate maize imports amount to an average of 3.4 million tonnes a year, according to <a href="https://www.igc.int/en/default.aspx">data from the International Grains Council</a>. This is both white and yellow maize, with most being white maize for human consumption.</p>
<p>Although intra-regional trade accounts for most of the consumption needs of import-reliant countries in the region, this is also supplemented by imports from countries outside of the continent such as Argentina, Canada and Mexico.</p>
<p>Overall, these maize market dynamics are worth monitoring, specifically from South Africa’s perspective, as they signal that the sub-Saharan maize demand in the 2022/23 marketing year could be much larger than the previous season. This could be the case especially if <a href="https://www.africa.com/zambia-when-crop-dreams-are-crushed/">Zambia’s maize production</a> comes out lower than the 2021/22 season, which is likely if we use the <a href="https://www.namc.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/South-African-Supply-Demand-Estimates-_30-March-2022.pdf">South African maize production conditions</a> as a barometer for the region. Such a potential increase in the region’s maize imports would have implication for prices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181487/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and a member of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC).</span></em></p>
Changes in maize production could create complications for Kenya, sub-Saharan Africa’s major importer, because of its policy on genetically modified maize.
Wandile Sihlobo, Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/178879
2022-03-14T18:57:40Z
2022-03-14T18:57:40Z
Russia’s war on Ukraine is driving up wheat prices and threatens global supplies of bread, meat and eggs
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451493/original/file-20220311-15-ztcm3i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=176%2C149%2C1955%2C1023&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia and Ukraine between them account for almost <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/wheat">a quarter</a> of the world’s wheat exports. </p>
<p>Russia and Ukraine are also big exporters of maize (corn), barley, and other grains that much of the world relies on to make food. </p>
<p>Wheat alone accounts for an estimated <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264675389_Feeding_humanity_through_global_food_trade">20%</a> of human calorie consumption. </p>
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<p>Since the start of February, as war became more likely, the grains and oilseed <a href="https://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-goi.aspx">price index</a> compiled by the International Grains Council has jumped 17%.</p>
<p>The big drivers have been jumps of 28% in the price of <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/wheat">wheat</a>, 23% in the price of <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/maize-corn-flour">maize</a> and 22% in the price of <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/barley-2100300">barley</a>.</p>
<p>Russia and Ukraine account for <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/barley-2100300">one fifth</a> of the world’s barley exports. Maize is a common substitute for wheat and barley.</p>
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<p><iframe id="291PL" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/291PL/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
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<p>Russia and Ukraine are also enormous producers of sunflower oil, between them accounting for around <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/sunflower-seed-or-safflower-oil-crude">70%</a> of global exports. </p>
<p>Among the world’s biggest wheat importers are <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/wheat">Egypt</a>, along with its North African neighbours Algeria and Nigeria, one of the world’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-poverty-profile-is-grim-its-time-to-move-beyond-handouts-163302">poorest</a> nations.</p>
<p>Indonesia, Turkey and the Philippines are also big importers.</p>
<p>Supplies from Russia might come through – and Russia is in <a href="https://theconversation.com/russian-sanctions-are-biting-harder-than-imagined-and-itll-get-worse-178322">desperate need</a> of foreign exchange. But Ukraine’s ports are closed, transport infrastructure is disrupted and might not be working when harvest season begins in July, and barley planting would normally begin about now.</p>
<h2>Rationing and riots have happened before</h2>
<p>Sudden shortages and price hikes will hit poor countries and their poorest citizens hard. Low income households spend far more of their income on <a href="https://nutritionj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12937-020-00654-5">staples</a> such as bread than high income households. </p>
<p>The effects will flow through to meat and egg prices, as cereal grains are used as feed of livestock and poultry production.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-russia-ukraine-conflict-could-influence-africas-food-supplies-177843">How Russia-Ukraine conflict could influence Africa's food supplies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Throughout history, violence and unrest have flowed from hikes in commodity prices. <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/egypt-bread-riots-protests-erupt-after-subsidy-cut-hits-poor">Egypt</a> was racked with bread riots and rationing in 2017. <a href="https://www.detailedpedia.com/wiki-2022_Kazakh_protests">Kazakhstan</a> suffered massive protests in January after a spike in liquefied gas prices.</p>
<p>Humanitarian organisations are set to face greater calls for food aid, which will be more expensive to provide.</p>
<p>Fortunately, the big southern hemisphere wheat producers, Australia and Argentina, have produced <a href="https://daff.ent.sirsidynix.net.au/client/en_AU/search/asset/1033304/0">bumper crops</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-war-in-ukraine-will-affect-food-prices-178693">How the war in Ukraine will affect food prices</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The value of Australian wheat production is set to hit an <a href="https://daff.ent.sirsidynix.net.au/client/en_AU/search/asset/1033304/0">all-time high</a>.</p>
<p>But food supply chains and global stability are certain to be tested. </p>
<p>It will take a village to stop this war and mitigate its repercussions. The rich and powerful of the village should do all they can to hold it together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Ubilava does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Wheat accounts for about 20% of human calorie consumption, and Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters. The war could hit household food supplies in countries as far apart as Egypt and Indonesia.
David Ubilava, Senior Lecturer of Economics, University of Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/173294
2022-01-25T09:27:29Z
2022-01-25T09:27:29Z
The race to protect the food of the future – why seed banks alone are not the answer
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435887/original/file-20211206-17-2py2ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4125%2C2740&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/macro-view-glass-gem-ears-unique-514422814">ThomasLENNE/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last summer I grew three varieties of corn in my tiny garden. I knew from the start that my harvest, if any, would be meagre. The plants would be hindered by poor soils, assertive pigeons and, worst of all, my pathetic knowledge of farming. Luckily it wasn’t so much the product I was interested in, as the process. I was interested in the idea of crop diversity – and in what it means to conserve it. </p>
<p>Today hundreds of organisations around the world, from community non-profits to international research agencies, strive to conserve crop diversity. Many are worried about a future in which today’s industrial monocrops wither in the face of climate change, drought and emerging diseases, forcing farmers and plant breeders to look for crops with traits suited for a changing planet. </p>
<p>Today’s conservationists are trying to ensure that uncommon varieties of grains, vegetables and fruits remain available to future generations who might need the options they provide. But approaches to this shared goal can vary dramatically. I hoped that getting some seeds (and my hands) in the soil would help me better understand what makes conservation so challenging.</p>
<p>Decades of research has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17733">revealed</a> that the diversity of the plants we grow for food has diminished since the early 20th century. Scores of seeds no longer in widespread cultivation are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10722-010-9534-z">maintained by agricultural institutes</a> as resources for future crop research and development. Copies of the most valuable of these collections are ferried to the Arctic for long-term cold storage in the <a href="https://www.croptrust.org/our-work/svalbard-global-seed-vault/">Svalbard Global Seed Vault</a>.</p>
<p>This widespread attention to endangered seeds hasn’t always been the case. Agricultural experts <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsc.2018.12.002">began insisting</a> on the importance of preserving local strains of key crops in the 1880s. But it wasn’t until the 1970s that governments started to put <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cuag.12072">significant resources</a> into this issue and to coordinate conservation efforts across countries.</p>
<p>In the intervening period, many scientists and research institutions created collections of their own. Some were enormous. In Soviet Russia, the botanist and geneticist Nikolai Vavilov orchestrated world-spanning <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/104272">collection missions</a> in the 1920s and 30s. By 1940 he and his colleagues had amassed some 250,000 samples of diverse crop varieties and crop wild relatives in Leningrad.</p>
<p>Most collections were specialised. While Vavilov traversed the globe hoping to turn his department into “the treasury of all crops and other floras”, the British botanist A.E. Watkins drew on imperial networks, for example connections at the London Board of Trade, to have wheat seeds from around the world sent his way. By the 1930s, he had about 7,000 samples of different varieties in <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4110413/">his collection</a>.</p>
<p>Few collectors were able to aspire explicitly to long-term preservation. Seeds are living things and will gradually die in storage, typically over years or decades depending on the type of seed and how it’s kept. As a result, keepers and curators of collections must monitor <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10722-012-9929-0">seeds’ viability</a> and be ready to sow, grow, and harvest a fresh batch of seeds when that viability drops off. For a collection of even a modest size (let alone for one of 250,000 samples) this is big commitment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wooden boxes containing different coloured dried beans." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440736/original/file-20220113-13-e44a9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440736/original/file-20220113-13-e44a9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440736/original/file-20220113-13-e44a9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440736/original/file-20220113-13-e44a9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440736/original/file-20220113-13-e44a9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440736/original/file-20220113-13-e44a9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440736/original/file-20220113-13-e44a9q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Six varieties of beans at the CIAT gene bank in Colombia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Six_bean_varieties_at_a_gene_bank.jpg#/media/File:Six_bean_varieties_at_a_gene_bank.jpg">Neil Palmer (CIAT)/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Long-term conservation action was slow to materialise as a result. It was hard to convince both scientists and states to bother with time-consuming monitoring and regeneration of collected “old” varieties, especially when all the reward seemed to be in making and growing new ones. Industrial farms, private seed companies and development experts were all transfixed by so-called modern varieties, with little time to spare for what had come before. </p>
<p>So what turned the tide? And why does it matter? To answer these questions, I dove deep into the history of seed banks and crop conservation. I visited active research stations and institutional archives, spoke with today’s seed conservation specialists and sifted through the papers of their predecessors. My findings are documented in my book, <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520307698/">Endangered Maize</a>.</p>
<p>An early breakthrough came as I thumbed through files at the archives of the <a href="http://nasonline.org/about-nas/history/archives/">US National Academy of Science</a>. Inside several folders labelled “<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02985328">Committee on Preservation of Indigenous Strains of Maize</a>” from the 1950s lie minutes and records charting more than a decade of efforts to collect varieties of <em>Zea mays</em> – also known as maize or corn – from across the western hemisphere and, most ambitiously, preserve them in perpetuity. This immediately stood out to me. Here was an early outlier in the history of crop conservation: an international effort with its eyes on the very long term.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>This story is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> and is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects to tackle societal and scientific challenges.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>The members of this Maize Committee worried that the corn varieties developed by professional breeders and sold by seed companies were steadily supplanting the kinds traditionally grown by farmers in Latin America. They called these varieties “indigenous strains” but today many scientists would speak of these locally adapted, farmer-saved lines as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018683119237">landraces</a>”.</p>
<p>From the northern deserts of Mexico to the tropical lowlands of Brazil to the highlands of Peru and Ecuador, the diverse peoples of the Americas had created <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11010172">many kinds of corn</a> over centuries of cultivation and trade. The committee wanted to preserve these – not as crops cultivated and harvested by farmers – but as samples maintained in research facilities that they could study as geneticists and improve as breeders.</p>
<p>The Maize Committee succeeded in gathering thousands of seed samples. By 1960 most were stored in what the committee members referred to as “seed centres”, but which today we would label seed banks or genebanks. These were among the earliest facilities designated specifically for long-term seed conservation. The committee hoped that refrigerated storage at the centres would extend seeds’ lifespans and keep the inevitable task of regenerating samples to a manageable minimum. </p>
<p>Fast forward seven decades. Curious about the fates of these samples, I traced their journeys whenever paper trails and research budgets allowed. While visiting a seed bank in Mexico, I held a jar filled with seeds collected during those early missions. I passed descendants of many similar samples as I navigated the aisles of the <a href="https://www.iowastatedaily.com/news/ames-seed-bank-saves-for-future/article_e6bd7ae2-0736-11e2-bba9-0019bb2963f4.html">US maize germplasm collection</a> in Iowa. Clearly the Maize Committee had some success in its mission to secure seeds.</p>
<p>Despite this, I’m sceptical that seed banks – still conceived today as the central element in successful conservation of genetic diversity in crop plants – offer the long-term solution we need. The history of maize can help us understand why.</p>
<h2>F1 hybrid corn – a triumph of capital?</h2>
<p>To explain this, we need to get back to the Maize Committee. What drove its collecting and conservation enterprise in the 1950s? A simple answer is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15flCcT9N3g">hybrid corn</a>. This was the looming threat that worried the Maize Committee as it surveyed the future of corn diversity across the Americas. </p>
<p>I planted what’s known as an F1 hybrid variety in my garden last summer. It was a sweet corn, with creamy yellow kernels just like the corn I buy from the grocery store near my home. Cooked within minutes of being cut from the plant, it was meltingly tender and unbelievably delicious.</p>
<p>The “F1” stands for “first filial” and it indicates that the seed was produced by hybridising two genetically distinct parent lines. Those parent lines in turn had been produced through years of inbreeding, a process that ensured they would possess and pass on only the qualities that scientists wanted.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Aerial view of two agricultural harvesters cutting and harvesting mature corn on large fields." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440742/original/file-20220113-955-1dih7n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440742/original/file-20220113-955-1dih7n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440742/original/file-20220113-955-1dih7n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440742/original/file-20220113-955-1dih7n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440742/original/file-20220113-955-1dih7n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440742/original/file-20220113-955-1dih7n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440742/original/file-20220113-955-1dih7n2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most maize grown today is hybrid corn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/above-view-two-agricultural-harvesters-they-1841838514">Roman023_photography/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My F1 hybrids had been through a process of genetic standardisation in which professional plant breeders had eliminated many potential sources of variability among them. I could expect plants of about the same size, ears of uniform colour, and that they’d all develop at roughly the same rate.</p>
<p>Historical accounts often pinpoint <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S1740022819000354">the invention and rapid adoption</a> of F1 hybrid corn from the 1940s, initially in the midwestern “corn belt” of the United States, as a turning point in agricultural history. In Iowa, the heart of the corn belt, hybrid varieties accounted for 1% of corn acres planted in 1933. By 1945, they represented <a href="https://cas.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/77.pdf">90%</a>.</p>
<p>For some observers, hybrid corn represented <a href="https://www.genetics.org/content/148/3/923.short">a first triumph</a> of the science of genetics, in which better understanding of the principles of heredity led to improvements in agricultural productivity and economic gains.</p>
<p>For others, it was more <a href="https://monthlyreviewarchives.org/index.php/mr/article/view/MR-038-03-1986-07_5">a triumph of capital</a>. The genetic makeup of a hybrid line means that subsequent generations grown from its seeds aren’t as productive as the parent plant. As a result, farmers cannot save their own seeds but instead must purchase fresh hybrid seeds each season. For seed companies, the most important outcome of the F1 hybrid method was not more productive varieties but a guaranteed revenue stream through the <a href="https://uwpress.wisc.edu/books/2659.htm">commodification of the seed</a>.</p>
<p>Geneticists and corn breeders were inclined to see the swift uptake of hybrid corn as a good thing. But some found the speed at which midwestern cornfields “upgraded” from eclectic assemblages of locally adapted varieties to homogeneous stands of hybrid varieties disconcerting. The botanist and geneticist Edgar Anderson <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2394369">warned his colleagues</a> in 1944 that “the whole genetic pattern of <em>Zea mays</em> [corn]” had been “catastrophically overhauled”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Assortment of vegetable seeds for sale." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440744/original/file-20220113-15-op65zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440744/original/file-20220113-15-op65zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440744/original/file-20220113-15-op65zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440744/original/file-20220113-15-op65zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440744/original/file-20220113-15-op65zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440744/original/file-20220113-15-op65zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440744/original/file-20220113-15-op65zn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Growing hybrid varieties often requires farmers to purchase fresh seed each year, rather than saving it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/minsk-belarus-march-20-2018-agriculture-1058124995">ArtCookStudio/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Anderson thought that there was still a lot to learn from the older varieties – including information that might make new hybrid corn still more productive. But without farmers to plant these, and save their seed from season to season, they weren’t likely to be available long to study. He called on his colleagues to think of some way to organise their conservation. Perhaps some farmers could be paid to grow them, he thought.</p>
<p>Neither Anderson nor any other scientists mobilised to systematically preserve farmers’ varieties in the US midwest. But when they learned of new state agricultural programs in Mexico, Brazil and other Latin American countries setting up shop in the 1940s and heard of hybrid seed companies making inroads with their commercial varieties, alarm bells went off. What if new corn varieties swept across these countries just as they had across the US?</p>
<p>This prospect was worrying because of the tremendous diversity of <a href="https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jbsc/037/05/0843-0855">maize varieties</a> grown across Latin America. Farmers harvested wide-kernelled <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cimmyt/5185264337">white flour corn</a>, slender <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/cimmyt/5185322195/">red popcorn</a>, deep purple <a href="https://repositorio.inia.gob.pe/bitstream/20.500.12955/996/1/Manrique-Maiz_Morado_Peruano.pdf">flint corn</a> and more. They grew towering <a href="https://www.cimmyt.org/news/saving-the-giant/">20-foot giants</a> and scrubby desert bushes. Some types were dried and ground for flour and others eaten fresh as a vegetable. The manifestations of maize were as diverse and distinctive as the peoples who grew them.</p>
<p>An anticipated transition away from these diverse landraces explains the rapid mobilisation and almost bewildering ambition of the Maize Committee in the 1950s. The committee members assumed they had about a decade in which to gather farmers’ locally adapted varieties before hybrid corn and other professionally bred products overtook them.</p>
<p>The Maize Committee did not want to stop this transition. Most members were corn breeders themselves and all thought that the introduction of breeders’ “improved” lines, hybrid or otherwise, represented agricultural progress in form of higher grain yields and greater economic returns. That’s why they felt it safe to assume that farmers would inevitably shift from their locally adapted landraces to seeds of new varieties. Surely, they thought, it would be in farmers’ best interest to grow the best that scientific breeding had to offer?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Labelled jars of maize seeds on a shelf." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441101/original/file-20220117-25-1xy664b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441101/original/file-20220117-25-1xy664b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441101/original/file-20220117-25-1xy664b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441101/original/file-20220117-25-1xy664b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441101/original/file-20220117-25-1xy664b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441101/original/file-20220117-25-1xy664b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441101/original/file-20220117-25-1xy664b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A maize seed bank in Ames, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Helen Curry</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Maize Committee therefore pursued the preservation of corn varieties they considered in danger of disappearing —- which is to say, all “indigenous strains” —- as samples in refrigerated storage. The main collections of these samples were sited at agricultural research stations in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. Farmers were superfluous to this model of conservation. Maintaining crop diversity was a task for technical workers at central research facilities and not farmers in far-flung rural communities.</p>
<p>In 1956, with more than 12,000 samples collected and stored “in perpetuity” according to this model, the Maize Committee declared its conservation enterprise a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02985328">resounding success</a>.</p>
<h2>Hopi blue corn</h2>
<p>In setting out their conservation objectives and methods, the members of the Maize Committee assumed a singular, inexorable trajectory of agricultural development. Farmers would surely adopt breeders’ new varieties as these were introduced. Locally adapted varieties of maize and other crops that scientists categorised variously as “indigenous”, “native”, and “primitive” would give way to “improved” and “modern” lines. In the process farmers would transition, too, casting off approaches to cultivation usually denigrated as “primitive” or “backwards”. It was not a matter of whether these shifts would happen, but when.</p>
<p>This projection of inevitable cultural and agricultural change informed not only the work of the Maize Committee but also the efforts of many scientists who engaged in the <a href="https://www.bioversityinternational.org/fileadmin/_migrated/uploads/tx_news/Scientists__plants_and_politics_240_01.pdf">conservation of crop diversity</a> in the decades that followed. They <a href="https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstream/handle/10568/105366/727.pdf?sequence=3#page=33">constructed seed and gene banks</a> to preserve the world’s “primitive” and “traditional” crop varieties, assuming a world in which neither these varieties nor the modes of farming that sustained them would survive.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Girl in white clothing peeling a raw blue corn cob with green leaves." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440749/original/file-20220113-23-1ka5lix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/440749/original/file-20220113-23-1ka5lix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440749/original/file-20220113-23-1ka5lix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440749/original/file-20220113-23-1ka5lix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440749/original/file-20220113-23-1ka5lix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440749/original/file-20220113-23-1ka5lix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/440749/original/file-20220113-23-1ka5lix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hopi blue corn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/mexican-girl-white-traditional-clothing-peeling-641202910">Victoria Tori Dim/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Internationally coordinated seed banking projects <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cuag.12072">intensified in the late 1960s</a> when “agricultural modernisation” was seen to accelerate in developing countries, thanks especially to the creation of new “high-yielding varieties” and aid programmes that sought to embed these as widely as possible.</p>
<p>Yet even as an international infrastructure for seed bank based conservation took shape, researchers began poking holes in the extinction narrative that sustained it.</p>
<p>One especially disruptive piece of evidence was the discovery that, in some places, farmers didn’t change over to newly introduced “high yielding” crop varieties, even when they had an opportunity to do so. Or that when farmers did adopt new seed, they also kept continued growing the older types, too. As a result, varieties slated for inevitable extinction in the 1950s hadn’t disappeared.</p>
<p>They still haven’t. Another variety I coaxed out of the soil last summer was Hopi blue corn. I wasn’t sure whether the British climate would be to the liking of these seeds, which trace their origins to the deserts of the American south-west and the labour of generations of <a href="https://www.americanindianmagazine.org/story/heart-hopi">Hopi farmers</a>. To my delight, however, the seeds I planted eventually produced gorgeous ears of plump, lavender-coloured kernels. These were chewy and nutty, and only delicately sweet, making a more satisfying savoury side than their hybrid neighbours did.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Women in dungarees crouches by a vegetable bed with tall maize plants." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441102/original/file-20220117-17-1k3jb72.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441102/original/file-20220117-17-1k3jb72.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441102/original/file-20220117-17-1k3jb72.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441102/original/file-20220117-17-1k3jb72.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441102/original/file-20220117-17-1k3jb72.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441102/original/file-20220117-17-1k3jb72.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441102/original/file-20220117-17-1k3jb72.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author tending her maize crop.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Andrew Buskell</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This type of corn, along with others originating among Hopi and neighbouring Native American communities <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nplants.2014.3">who have cultivated corn</a> in the hot, dry south-west for thousands of years, were among those targeted by the Maize Committee in the 1950s. The committee assumed their fields represented some of the only remaining sites of significant maize diversity north of the US-Mexico border and dispatched the ethnobotanist Hugh Cutler to collect there in 1953.</p>
<p>As he travelled to pueblos of the south-west, Cutler encountered many farmers growing blue maize varieties. He learned that these were preferred for their tolerance of drought and resistance against insect pests and because they produced excellent flour.</p>
<p>Cutler and the Maize Committee imagined these seeds and others obtained from Native American farmers would only remain safe in perpetuity in the seed bank – unlike in farmers’ fields where, according to Cutler, many growers had already “practically ceased to grow their old kinds of corn”.</p>
<p>Three decades later, a trio of researchers <a href="https://www.nativeseeds.org/blogs/the-seedhead-news/no-29-summer-solstice-1990">visited farmers of the same region</a>. Seeking to document the diversity of crops still in cultivation in the late 1980s, they focused in on Hopi farmers.</p>
<p>After visiting more than 50 growers in 1988 and 1989, they concluded that the fields of Hopi farmers were “dominated by Hopi crop varieties”. These were better suited to the harsh desert environment than commercial alternatives and treasured for ceremonial and other specific uses.</p>
<p>These findings confirmed a pattern that researchers had observed repeatedly by the early 1990s. Many farmers continued to grow diverse “traditional” crop varieties, despite expectations to the contrary.</p>
<p>Maize fields in the Mexican highlands, potato plots in Peru, rice paddies in Thailand: these and other spaces where anthropologists and botanists discovered farmers’ varieties <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00889077">still in cultivation</a> suggested that “modernisation” was not the singular, all-encompassing pathway often imagined.</p>
<p>In fact, farmers had <a href="https://doi.org/10.3763/ijas.2007.0291">many reasons to maintain diversity</a>. Growing lines with different characteristics, and which would respond differently to drought or heat or wind, offered security against bad weather and unpredictable climates. Some varieties were valued for qualities that professional plant breeders neglected, everything from prized flavours to the ability to be stored for long periods. And sometimes breeders’ new offerings just didn’t grow as well or produce as much as established local varieties did.</p>
<p>A new conservation vision emerged on the heels of these observations, informed by the realisation that so-called “traditional” farmers had a deep knowledge of farming methods and the environments in which they lived. </p>
<p>New “on-farm” <a href="https://www.bioversityinternational.org/research-portfolio/conservation-of-crop-diversity/">conservation programmes</a> aimed to support the farmers cultivating local varieties. Activists and scientists organised community-run seed banks. Participatory breeding programmes helped farmers enhance the productiveness of local varieties and thus keep them in cultivation. These and other projects encouraged conservation on farms by farmers – rather than in cold storage facilities run by technicians.</p>
<p>Programmes like these would help sustain farmers and communities who had not benefited from the top-down agricultural development of previous decades. And rather than dictate farmers’ transformation from “traditional” into “modern”, they would recognise the value of diverse communities and cultures. They would contribute to not only communities’ survival, but also their flourishing.</p>
<p>The contrast between this approach to conservation and the cold-storage model espoused by the Maize Committee could hardly be more stark.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two cobs of red corn and one white-blue on a table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441104/original/file-20220117-25-58cwtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441104/original/file-20220117-25-58cwtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441104/original/file-20220117-25-58cwtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441104/original/file-20220117-25-58cwtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441104/original/file-20220117-25-58cwtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441104/original/file-20220117-25-58cwtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441104/original/file-20220117-25-58cwtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Blue and red corn from the author’s garden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Andrew Buskell</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Double red sweetcorn</h2>
<p>Since the 1990s, efforts to ensure the survival of the world’s maize diversity have taken a variety of forms.</p>
<p>Most state-led conservation activity remains centred on cold storage in seed banks. When studies in the 1970s and 1980s suggested that seed banks often <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/ced-81-75.pdf">struggled to maintain samples</a> in the ideal conditions demanded for successful long-term conservation, collection managers responded by <a href="https://cropgenebank.sgrp.cgiar.org/index.php/procedures-mainmenu-242/safety-duplication-mainmenu-207">duplicating their collections</a> and sending the copy for safekeeping at another facility.</p>
<p>This recourse to copying was a tacit acknowledgement of <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/lack-diversity-lack-funding-seed-banks-face-world-challenges-180959409/">the challenges faced</a> in keeping seeds alive in cold storage, especially in contexts where governments failed to cough up the required financial support.</p>
<p>Over time it produced an elaborate system of back up. Today this system has reached its apex in the <a href="https://www.croptrust.org/our-work/svalbard-global-seed-vault/">Svalbard Global Seed Vault</a>. Its holdings include <a href="https://www.cimmyt.org/multimedia/preserving-the-legacy-of-biodiversity/">copies of the preeminent global maize collection</a> of the International Center for the Improvement of Maize and Wheat in Mexico. The Svalbard vault is seen by many people as the ultimate guarantor that crop diversity will survive for future generations to use.</p>
<p>But others disagree. Participatory breeding programs, community seed banks, subsidies to “seed guardians” and other farm and farmer-centred programmes run counter to the idea that diverse varieties must inevitably disappear from fields and therefore be frozen to survive. In this view, seed banks may be an important safeguard, but never the only sites where genetic diversity is kept alive. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1370434712062337035"}"></div></p>
<p>There is also a growing movement to protect and, where needed, <a href="https://lithub.com/seedkeeper-rowen-white-on-the-rematriation-of-seeds-to-their-native-lands/">to restore the crop varieties</a> traditional to certain communities as a means of <a href="https://viacampesina.org/en/peasant-seeds-the-heart-of-the-struggle-for-food-sovereignty/">defending sovereignty</a> over land and food. The network <a href="https://braidingthesacred.org/">Braiding the Sacred</a> brings together Native and Indigenous corn growers to share knowledge, practice – and seeds – with the aim of increasing the cultivation of traditional maize, as well as other foods.</p>
<p>Seed banks have occasionally played a significant role in farm-based conservation programmes, for example by <a href="https://foodtank.com/news/2021/10/native-american-food-sovereignty-alliance-honors-seed-rematriation-through-short-film/">“rematriating” seeds</a> of varieties otherwise lost to growers. And as the changing climate, water stress and resource shortages intensify the challenges to global agriculture, creating demands on breeders to produce resilient crop varieties, scientists’ access to seed-banked materials is more important <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15427528.2011.609928">than ever before</a>.</p>
<p>But crop diversity saved on a farm and in the bank are different. Seeds sown and harvested are seeds in motion, not just geographically but genetically. </p>
<p>A good example of this is a recent seed sensation. <a href="https://www.nativeseeds.org/pages/glass-gem-corn">Glass gem corn</a> burst onto the scene in the 2010s, thanks in large part to the glittering multi-coloured kernels from which it derives its name.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JMJ2zxTMypE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Although it has been described as a “poster child for the return to heirloom seeds”, glass gem is not an old variety but <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-story-behind-glass-gem-corn-2013-10?r=US&IR=T">a new one</a>. Its creator, the Oklahoman Carl Barnes, started collecting corn varieties in the 1940s, inspired by memories of the corn grown by his Cherokee grandfather. He especially prized varieties associated with Native American communities, which he gathered from across the country.</p>
<p>Barnes was interested in preserving history, but for him this didn’t mean keeping varieties as static as museum samples. It meant cultivating. And it especially meant mixing. Barnes allowed different kinds to cross-pollinate in the fields and selected new types from the subsequent mosaic.</p>
<p>In the 1990s, a small, rainbow-kernelled line that Barnes developed from a mix of a few varieties caught the eye of another corn enthusiast, who started growing the seeds in New Mexico. There it cross-pollinated with larger, local flour corns, before making its way <a href="https://www.nativeseeds.org/blogs/blog-news/the-story-of-glass-gem-corn-beauty-history-and-hope">into the hands</a> of the director of an heirloom seed organisation and to eventually into internet fame and impressively widespread cultivation.</p>
<p>The story of glass gem is an outlier among seed conservation stories. Accounts of nearly vanished varieties, recovered intact as they were once grown, often from an isolated farmer or an aged gardener, are far more common. Recovery, revival, and narrow escapes from extinction feature centrally in these stories.</p>
<p>Glass gem reminds us that there is also potential for conservation in motion as well as in stasis, in reinvention alongside restoration. Diversity is not just something we can lose if we aren’t careful. It is something we can create.</p>
<p>I couldn’t get my hands on any glass gem seeds, so I tracked down another striking corn variety attributed to recent remixing. My <a href="https://www.seedsavers.org/double-red-organic-corn">double red sweet corn</a>, which I bought from a UK supplier, originated in handiwork of breeder Alan Kapuler of <a href="http://www.peaceseedslive.com/">Peace Seeds</a> in Oregon, USA.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A freshly harvested red corn on the cob." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441105/original/file-20220117-27-191po11.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441105/original/file-20220117-27-191po11.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441105/original/file-20220117-27-191po11.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441105/original/file-20220117-27-191po11.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441105/original/file-20220117-27-191po11.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441105/original/file-20220117-27-191po11.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441105/original/file-20220117-27-191po11.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The author’s harvested double red maize.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Andrew Buskell</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>A collector and cultivator of crop diversity since the 1970s, Kapuler today specialises in breeding new varieties from his diverse seed stocks. Double red is one product of Kapuler’s 15 years’ work with sweet corns high in anthocyanin pigments, including some originating among Hopi farmers. It is visually striking: deep red stalks and leaves and an equally red husk that is peeled back to reveal an ear of sparkling crimson kernels.</p>
<p>My harvest of double red was disappointing in comparison to the more abundant output of the F1 hybrid and Hopi sweet corn. I ended up with just a couple of ears, beautiful but devoured in a flash. Still, double red is even more new to my corner of the world than to Oregon and might need to adapt to the climate and soils I can provide.</p>
<p>That’s why I’ve saved some seeds of double red to sow next year. It’s a painfully small step, but it’s one I’m making in solidarity with a conservation agenda that my research has taught me can, and should, be centred on renewal, change and creativity.</p>
<hr>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
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<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-discovery-of-insulin-a-story-of-monstrous-egos-and-toxic-rivalries-172820?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">The discovery of insulin: a story of monstrous egos and toxic rivalries</a></em></p></li>
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<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/wasps-why-i-love-them-and-why-you-should-too-155982?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Wasps: why I love them, and why you should too</a></em></p></li>
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<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173294/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Helen Anne Curry receives funding from the Wellcome Trust.</span></em></p>
A historian argues for conservation strategies that embrace creativity and diverse farming methods.
Helen Anne Curry, Associate Professor in History of Modern Science and Technology, University of Cambridge
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/165987
2021-09-14T16:11:11Z
2021-09-14T16:11:11Z
African farmers and agribusinesses need fair access to markets in face of climate change
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420049/original/file-20210908-13-16jx5l3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Agricultural commodity prices spiked after cyclone Kenneth had hit northern Mozambique in 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Southern and Eastern Africa face the twin challenges of growing agricultural production to meet food demand while adapting to extreme weather. And climate change makes addressing these challenges extremely urgent.</p>
<p>Southern Africa is <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-latest-assessment-on-global-warming-means-for-southern-africa-104644">a climate change hotspot</a>. Eastern Africa is projected to still have good average rainfall, although temperatures will increase and floodings become more frequent.</p>
<p>There is huge potential for meeting these twin challenges across Eastern and Southern Africa, where there are in fact <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/5f43657bf186f763e265c86b/1598252427643/CCRED+WP+2_2020+Southern+African+Market+Observatory.pdf">good soils and water availability</a> in many countries. </p>
<p>However, markets are not working well, especially for small and medium-scale farmers and agri-businesses which are at the heart of inclusive food value chains. These participants are often not receiving fair prices for their produce due to the way markets have been working, including powerful interests, high transport costs and poor facilities such as those for storage. </p>
<p>Analysing market failures requires information. Yet, poor market information has made the ability to monitor market prices in close to real time difficult across much of the region. Up-to-date information on food prices is critical to understanding agricultural food systems in the region and for collectively planning responses. Information on food prices should be accompanied by other market information relating to production and market structures.</p>
<p>To address this, the University of Johannesburg’s <a href="https://www.competition.org.za/">Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development</a> has launched a <a href="https://www.competition.org.za/marketobservatory">market observatory</a>. This is one part of supporting smaller producers in negotiating fair prices and in identifying measures to make markets work better across the region. </p>
<h2>Markets not working well</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i3907e/i3907e.pdf">Volatility over time</a>, and very <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i3907e/i3907e.pdf">large price differentials</a> between areas in Eastern and Southern Africa for key crops such as soybeans and maize, reflect markets that are not working well for producers or buyers such as agro-processors. </p>
<p>The price differentials point to potential local market power being exploited and big profit margins being earned by large traders. The spread of larger traders across the region is meant to have heralded more efficient markets. However, market outcomes and high levels of concentration at various levels of supply chains indicate that there are also major concerns about market power.</p>
<p>For example, over the past 12 months, the patchy data supported by anecdotal information indicate that <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/5f43657bf186f763e265c86b/1598252427643/CCRED+WP+2_2020+Southern+African+Market+Observatory.pdf">soybean prices</a> have been extremely high in Dar es Salaam and Nairobi (above US$900 per tonne). This while there is great potential to supply from areas within Tanzania as well as from Uganda, Malawi and Zambia. </p>
<p>Prices in areas such as <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/5f43657bf186f763e265c86b/1598252427643/CCRED+WP+2_2020+Southern+African+Market+Observatory.pdf">Zambia and southwest Tanzania</a> were below $400/t in May after the harvest and around $500 in Malawi. The difference between the producing areas and the cities is consistent with farmers getting offered unfairly low prices by large buyers. Large buyers are taking advantage of the poor storage and the lack of other market options available for the farmers. Farmers have to accept the low prices being offered.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415647/original/file-20210811-19-1ncuon1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>The transport costs to the main urban markets should not account for more than $100/t of the difference between $400 or $500 and $900, meaning that massive profits have been made by the “middle-men” or traders. In competitive markets, trading margins would reflect reasonable costs and not super profits.</p>
<p>These profit margins are at the expense of farmers, who receive low prices, while high prices are charged to agribusinesses and consumers in urban areas. This undermines production in the region. It also contributes to high food prices and compounds reliance on imports.</p>
<p>This especially affects smaller market participants. Large and integrated processors and traders have their own transporters and infrastructure, and better market information. </p>
<p>Smaller market participants are charged massively inflated transport costs where they look to bypass traders and organise their own sales. This undermines effective market integration across the region. In <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52246331e4b0a46e5f1b8ce5/t/611504af8d2b162b32f8637e/1628767408243/Price+tracker+4+DRAFT_Final.pdf">our research</a>, market participants in Malawi indicated that those looking to export from Malawi were being charged as much as three times what were reasonable rates. </p>
<p>There are also high rates being set by local transporters within some countries. This suggests market power in transport and trading, including on the part of influential large trucking companies in some countries. Some market participants in Tanzania have resorted to placing loads on buses in recent months, incurring very high costs and yet still receiving the product at much lower than the prevailing prices in Dar es Salaam.</p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>Smaller producers and agribusinesses are integral in growing production and ensuring the fairer and more competitive markets required for the benefits to be widely shared and sustainable. Small to medium sized farms and agribusinesses have been growing strongly in many countries yet face many disadvantages in markets, especially relative to large multinational trading groups. </p>
<p>Action, including market monitoring, effective competition enforcement and investment in the necessary infrastructure and support, is required to shape markets to work better. </p>
<p>Steps to support smaller producers are important in any event. However, the climate emergency means they are imperative and that the time to act is running out fast. The extreme weather currently in the Americas is a warning not to be complacent. </p>
<p>The El Niño state brings drought in southern Africa while inducing heavy rainfall and floods in Eastern Africa. The 2015/16 period saw the worst drought in Southern Africa for around 30 years. This led to maize shortages and prices jumping in countries such as <a href="https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2018/EGU2018-6979.pdf">South Africa, Mozambique and Malawi</a>. Extreme weather patterns also contributed to price volatility in subsequent years with, for example, <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/ca7638en/ca7638en.pdf">cyclones in Mozambique</a>, poor rainfall and drought concerns in 2019 seeing prices spike again.</p>
<p>Adaptation to the effects of climate change means supporting increased production, such as through irrigation, coupled with intra-regional trade across Eastern and Southern Africa. According to the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#SPM">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment</a>, while Southern Africa will experience less rainfall and more droughts, Central to Eastern Africa is projected to maintain precipitation levels, on average. When extreme weather hits one part of the region there will likely still be good harvests from other areas.</p>
<p>Urgent measures are required to support agricultural practices for farmers to adapt to climate change and increase production while ensuring markets work effectively across the region. The good news is that the region has the potential to substantially improve its resilience and increase earnings for farmers and jobs in the related value chains. This requires fair market prices and support for investments in areas including irrigation, production, storage and processing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grace Nsomba is affiliated with the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development at the University of Johannesburg.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Roberts is affiliated with the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development at the University of Johannesburg and the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose at University College London</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ntombifuthi Tshabalala is affiliated with the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development at the University of Johannesburg.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Namhla Landani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Small and medium-scale farmers and agri-businesses in Southern and Eastern Africa, which are at the heart of inclusive food value chains, are not receiving fair prices for their produce.
Grace Nsomba, Associate Researcher at Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg
Simon Roberts, Professor of Economics and Lead Researcher, Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, UJ, University of Johannesburg
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/159839
2021-05-03T13:52:54Z
2021-05-03T13:52:54Z
Sub-Saharan Africa’s food security has turned out better than feared. But risks remain
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398055/original/file-20210430-17-1iknkk8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An avocado orchard in Tzaneen, South Africa. Food insecurity in the country went up in the wake of COVID-19. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Guillem Sartorio/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, concern immediately arose that sub-Saharan Africa faced a potential worsening in food insecurity. The concerns were due to the anticipated <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021">slowdown</a> in economic activity, job losses accompanied by loss of income, and a <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/russia-bans-grains-exports-over-coronavirus-pandemic/1776274">ban on grain exports</a> by major exporting countries, including India, Russia, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Sub-Saharan Africa is a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/12/14/unpacking-the-misconceptions-about-africas-food-imports/">net importer of food</a>. </p>
<p>The bans, along with other pandemic-related disruptions to food supply chains, were expected to add to food security challenges in the region. The World Bank was among the first multilateral institutions to sound the alarm. The bank <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/33765/How-Much-Will-Poverty-Rise-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa-in-2020.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">estimated</a> that an additional 26 million people would fall into extreme poverty, defined as those living under US$1.90 per day, in 2020.</p>
<p>The slowdown in economic activity played out as expected, with sub-Saharan Africa’s economy contracting by 1.9% in 2020, according to International Monetary Fund <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021">estimates</a>. The economic slowdown resulted in job losses. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/how-livelihoods-deteriorated-sub-saharan-africa-due-covid-19">widespread job losses</a> in the region subsequently led to a rise in food insecurity. This was most pronounced in Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Ethiopia, Uganda and Malawi, the countries for which <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/how-livelihoods-deteriorated-sub-saharan-africa-due-covid-19">data is available</a>.</p>
<p>More than a year since the onset of the pandemic, a great many uncertainties about the economic future of the region linger on. However, sub-Saharan Africa’s food security situation appears to have, thus far, turned out better than some of the more pessimistic expectations.</p>
<p>The increase in staple grain imports in various African countries, by both governments and private sector players, combined with slightly better domestic grain production conditions in some, such as Zambia, South Africa and Tanzania, to name a few, has slightly shielded the region.</p>
<h2>Specific interventions</h2>
<p>One positive development was that the G20 <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/report_trdev_jun20_e.pdf">discouraged</a> major grain-exporting countries from banning exports. Domestic evaluations of supplies by food-exporting countries also provided comfort for sufficient food supplies in the world market. As a result, India, Russia, Cambodia and Vietnam lifted the ban on exports, enabling a smooth flow of grain to the sub-Saharan Africa region.</p>
<p>Various governments also took action. This was primarily through increasing grain imports. The major importers have been Zimbabwe, Zambia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Nigeria and Malawi. Some of these countries also rolled out farmer input support schemes to assist farmers ahead of the 2020/21 production season, which began in October 2020 for most countries. Only South Africa responded with direct income support to vulnerable households, but still household food insecurity rose.</p>
<p>Governments also supported farmers with inputs. This could pay off during the 2021 harvest. There remain concerns though that some of support might have been late in getting to some farmers because of corruption, poor farmer targeting and bureaucratic inefficiencies. This has been the experience with <a href="https://www.dandc.eu/en/article/promising-programme-subsidise-farm-inputs-falling-victim-corruption-and-mismanagement">previous farm input subsidies programmes</a>. </p>
<p>That said, another important positive development was that most of the African continent, specifically southern and eastern regions, received higher rainfall during the 2020-21 summer. This allowed for increased plantings and improved crop production conditions. The United States Department of Agriculture <a href="https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0421.pdf">estimates</a> already point to prospects of increased maize production in several southern and east Africa countries.</p>
<p>For example:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Zambia’s 2020/21 maize production could reach 3.4 million tonnes (up 69% on 2019/20); </p></li>
<li><p>Malawi’s maize harvest is estimated at 3.8 million tonnes (up 25% y/y),</p></li>
<li><p>Mozambique’s maize crop is estimated at 2.1 million tonnes (up 8% y/y),</p></li>
<li><p>Kenya’s maize harvest is forecast at 4.0 million tonnes (up 5% y/y). </p></li>
<li><p>Tanzania’s maize harvest is estimated at 6.3 million tonnes (up 8% y/y).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>There are also prospects of large maize and wheat harvests in Zimbabwe.</p>
<p>These numbers suggest a good harvest, not only for grains but also for other crops and improved livestock conditions in the southern and east Africa region. </p>
<p>These improved agricultural conditions cannot fully compensate for job losses. Nevertheless they might cushion households from severe and long-term food insecurity that the World Bank’s economists had feared the sub-Saharan Africa region would face from 2020. It is plausible that as the harvest begins from May 2021 in some African countries, rural households could be in a slightly better position than in 2020 in terms of staple grains availability.</p>
<p>The big question now is whether insights have been gained to make the agricultural sector more resilient in the future, and if the expected large harvest could be stored in good condition to last for longer or reach the market in good quality. A number of sub-Saharan African countries lag behind in this effort. </p>
<p>One idea that’s been around for decades revolves around <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2020-07-19-this-is-how-rural-areas-can-be-developed-through-agriculture/">strengthening rural economies through supporting agriculture and improving infrastructure</a> to help link farmers to markets. Had efficient roads and storage infrastructure existed in many African countries, the windfall of expected large grains harvest would find a market place, and income from sales would improve household incomes.</p>
<p>From a policy perspective, I would argue that as various governments begin to craft and some implement the economic recovery strategies from the COVID-19 slump, the improvement in rural infrastructure should be prioritised. Such an approach would have long term economic and food security benefits.</p>
<h2>Challenges ahead</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, the sub-Saharan Africa region still faces major headwinds.</p>
<p>If the pandemic is prolonged it’s plausible that the fear of rising food insecurity could eventually be a reality, especially if the next summers are not as rainy as 2020-21.</p>
<p>In addition, the government-led input support to farmers for the 2021-22 planting season will be constrained by reduced fiscal space that most emerging market governments face. And there’s the lurking risk of increasing global bond yields which will make government bonds in developed countries offer more attractive returns for investors, resulting in money being sucked out of emerging and frontier markets.</p>
<p>Essentially, the rural areas of the sub-Saharan Africa region might experience an improvement in food availability in 2021 compared to 2020. However, this is temporary. It is at the mercy of weather conditions and government support going into 2022. Both are highly uncertain and largely not within each country’s control. </p>
<p>Perhaps, sub-Saharan African governments might want to ensure continued farmer input support again in the 2021-22 summer crop planting period.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159839/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), and also a member of the South African President's Economic Advisory Council (PEAC). </span></em></p>
Government support for farmers, higher rainfall and grain imports have helped sub-Saharan Africa stave off food insecurity, but the region isn’t out of the woods yet.
Wandile Sihlobo, Visiting Research Fellow, Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/159240
2021-04-29T14:58:46Z
2021-04-29T14:58:46Z
Somalia is facing another food crisis: here’s why – and what can be done to stop the cycle
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395840/original/file-20210419-23-1n4c8mz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A soldier looking over a maize field where Somali farmers are tending a crop in Dollow, northern Somalia. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">TONY KARUMBA/AFP/GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since the fall of Siad Barre’s regime in 1991, which led to a prolonged period of civil unrest, Somalia has been in a <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/665345/pdf">near-constant state</a> of food insecurity. It also suffered two famines – in 1992 and 2011. </p>
<p>Every year, between April and May (when crop is planted), aid agencies make <a href="https://www.savethechildren.net/news/disaster-somali-families-income-livestock-sales-expected-halve-coming-months">dire predictions</a> about the impending doom of the upcoming growing season and to appeal for funds to support increased food aid. </p>
<p>This year, Save the Children <a href="https://www.savethechildren.net/news/disaster-somali-families-income-livestock-sales-expected-halve-coming-months">announced</a> that millions of Somalis won’t have enough food to eat as crop and vegetable production is expected to drop by 75%-80%. And the UN’s 2021 <a href="https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/document/somalia-humanitarian-response-plan-humanitarian-programme-cycle-2021-issued-february-2021">Somalia Humanitarian Response Plan</a> seeks US$1.09 billion to provide “life-saving assistance” across Somalia. </p>
<p>As agricultural experts working in Somalia for the last 35 years we have done extensive research into food production. We have been involved in developing agricultural policies aimed at finding solutions to the country’s stagnant cereal production with an eye on reducing food insecurity in the country.</p>
<p>As part of our work we <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajfand/article/view/190736">investigated</a> historic trends over the last 60 years in domestic cereal production, cereal imports, and food aid in Somalia. We <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajfand/article/view/190736">found</a> that there’s been a precipitous decrease in the production of key cereals – maize and sorghum – over time, falling from a high of 91 kg per capita in 1972 to just 30 kg per capita in 2012. This is due to a combination of stagnant crop production and a rapidly increasing population. Conflict, corruption and bad governance have made matters worse. </p>
<p>Once almost <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4191966">cereal independent</a>, the production decline has created a dependence on food aid and imports – over 50% <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajfand/article/view/190736">cereal consumed is</a> imported. This is hugely problematic: a majority of Somalis live below the <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/data-development-poverty-and-policy-somalia">poverty level</a> and cannot afford to pay for food and <a href="http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/129187">relying on imports</a> leaves them vulnerable to markets.</p>
<p>Improving domestic cereal production in Somalia should be part of any future food security strategy for the country. The implementation of simple agricultural best management practices – such as fertiliser application and timely planting and weeding – can increase cereal production in the country. </p>
<p>In practical terms this means many farmers could increase production, if there was increased incentive to do so. Currently, food aid and imports can stifle domestic production because farmers have little incentive to put in the extra effort to produce more than that which they consume. </p>
<h2>Cereal crops</h2>
<p>Sorghum and maize are the predominant cereal crops grown in Somalia and historically, these two crops have provided a <a href="http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home">sizeable</a> portion of total caloric intake of the Somali diet. <a href="https://www.fsnau.org/analytical-approach/methodology/livestock">Livestock</a> is also a key local consumption commodity for household food security.</p>
<p>Sorghum production is mainly done by smallholder farmers and is carried out in dryland areas. Sorghum is more drought tolerant than maize and is grown predominantly in the <a href="https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnabc182.pdf">Bay Region</a>, south-central Somalia between the Juba and Shebelle rivers, Somalia’s largest rivers.</p>
<p>Maize is typically grown on irrigated land, often by small- and medium-sized farmers. These landholders often employ family labour to manage their land. The major maize growing areas <a href="http://www.fsnau.org/downloads/Lower-Shabelle-Baseline-Report-November-2013.pdf">are along</a> the Shebelle and Juba rivers.</p>
<p>Somali cereal <a href="http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home">production</a> levels <a href="https://www.ajfand.net/Volume19/No3/Gavin18025.pdf">have not increased</a> in the last 60 years. In fact, from 1972 to 2012 cereal production per capita <a href="https://www.ajfand.net/Volume19/No3/Gavin18025.pdf">decreased by</a> 66%.</p>
<p>There are a few factors that have contributed to this.</p>
<p>The first is poor yields. Average yield of both <a href="https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnabc182.pdf">sorghum (300 to 500 kg/ha)</a> and <a href="https://land.igad.int/index.php/documents-1/countries/somalia/rural-development-4/937-subsistence-farming-in-lowe-shabelle-riverine-zone/file">maize (900 to 1200 kg/ha)</a> is low compared with most, about 20% of the <a href="http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data">average yield in developed countries</a>.</p>
<p>Average yields are low because farmers typically don’t have access to the necessary agricultural inputs, for example, quality seeds and fertiliser. They also lack access to farm machinery, such as planters, fertiliser applicators, sprayers and harvesting equipment. In addition, there are no research and extension services in the country to help farmers make an informed decision.</p>
<p>Food shortages can also be due to the weather, such as flooding or drought. <a href="http://41.89.240.73/handle/embuni/3705">Higher frequencies and severity of drought events</a> observed in recent years could make things worse. </p>
<p>Limited rainfall can negatively impact sorghum production. In recent years drought frequency is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012825218303519?casa_token=nEEdk53HXxwAAAAA:JOJhrlpwb01kUpntYKbkLckPKDjZD_8Y5OhEbLJym5xEXgeMfIMsS2mSo_t3f1ed5jWRVp3Q">once every three</a> years. Flooding can negatively impact irrigated maize production. Though localised, the country is experiencing <a href="http://41.89.240.73/handle/embuni/3705">flooding</a> every two to three years. </p>
<p>Because the Shebelle and Juba rivers originate in high rainfall areas of Ethiopia, rains there can cause subsequent flooding in Somalia while drought conditions exist during the same growing season. </p>
<h2>Conflict and poor governance</h2>
<p>Another major reason for food insecurity in the country remains conflict, corruption and bad governance.</p>
<p>Civil unrest, since the early 1990s, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/somalia-conflict-and-famine-the-causes-are-bad-governance-not-climate-change-84166">directly related</a> to a deterioration of irrigation infrastructure. It has reduced the access that farmers may have to markets and the country lacks an agricultural regulatory framework, affecting food production and marketing.</p>
<p>The unrest has also resulted in the displacement of many farmers – there are about to 2.6 million <a href="https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/cccm_somalia">internally displaced people in Somalia</a>. This reduces the harvest of both crops. </p>
<p>In addition, illegal taxation on agricultural produce while it’s being transported to market is commonplace, both by government officials and rebel groups. This acts as a disincentive to farmers to produce crops.</p>
<h2>Food insecurity</h2>
<p>The fact that Somalia has not improved crop production has led to food insecurity. There are a few things that can be done to change this.</p>
<p>First, Somalia should improve the way in which production data are reported. Somalia has <a href="https://land.igad.int/index.php/documents-1/countries/somalia/rural-development-4/937-subsistence-farming-in-lowe-shabelle-riverine-zone/file">two growing seasons</a> each year: the <em>Gu</em> from April through May and the shorter <em>Deyr</em> from October into November. However, data is reported annually. This gives an incomplete view of how drastically different the seasons can be and causes confusion on production area data.</p>
<p>It’s also imperative that production and reliability increases. This can be done by adopting relatively simple agricultural management techniques that have been well-researched and recognised as important yield factors in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<p>For example, the country could:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Introduce proper land and irrigation management techniques.</p></li>
<li><p>Improved transportation infrastructure and market development.</p></li>
<li><p>Work on canal restoration and land levelling for improved irrigation efficiency.</p></li>
<li><p>Introduce organic and mineral fertilisers, train farmers on their importance and develop policies on fertiliser importation.</p></li>
<li><p>Instigate land ownership laws, giving farmers an incentive to improving agricultural infrastructure.</p></li>
<li><p>Encourage timely weeding and optimum planting population for increased yields.</p></li>
<li><p>Better monitor food aid distribution and encourage more aid to be domestically produced. This would enhance agricultural capabilities within Somalia.</p></li>
<li><p>Enhance security in agricultural areas. This would free up donor funds that currently go to providing security of humanitarian efforts.</p></li>
<li><p>Encourage cropping and intercropping with legumes such as cowpea and mungbean. While this will not enhance yield of the cereal crop, it spreads risk and adds to diversity in the diet.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In terms of political instability, unfortunately <a href="https://theconversation.com/somalias-toxic-political-and-security-order-the-death-knell-of-democracy-159549">current tensions</a> prevent policymakers from focusing on issues of food security. This is a big hurdle that needs to be overcome. </p>
<p>But there are steps policymakers can still take to move Somalia from emergency or humanitarian aid towards development aid. This would provide much-needed jobs, particularly for the youth (<a href="https://www.unido.org/news/skills-training-gives-somalian-youth-chance">almost 70%</a> of the population) – and strengthen the agricultural sector to help enable Somalia to be more food secure. </p>
<p>In 1991, Hossein Farzin published an article titled <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4191966">“Food Aid: Positive or Negative Economic Effects in Somalis?”</a>. It would seem now – 30 years later – we should have a better answer to that question.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159240/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Drs. Hussein Haji and Paul Porter helped create the Somali Agricultural Technology Group (SATG) in 2001. SATG is a Somalia-based NGO (<a href="http://www.satg.org">www.satg.org</a>) that has received grants from a number of aid agencies (including USAID, FAO, DFID, ICRC and the EU) to implement agricultural development projects throughout Somalia. SATG is apolitical, but does work with Federal and State agencies on agricultural-related policy development and training. In 2016, they started Filsan, a private commercial seed company with headquarters in Mogadishu. Dr. Haji is the executive director of SATG and president of Filsan. Dr. Porter is a SATG board member and professor emeritus in agronomy at the University of Minnesota. Ryan Gavin is a graduate student at the University of Minnesota.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Haji, Ph.D., has served for over ten years with the Ministry of Agriculture in Somalia. He worked as a Senior Researcher and a lecturer of Genetics and Plant Breeding at the Somali National University. He has also served as the coordinator of the national sorghum improvement program and a director of the Central Agriculture Research Station (CARS) based in Afgoi. He traveled to Canada in 1990 where he obtained his M.Sc. and Ph.D. in Genetics and Plant Breeding at the University of Guelph. Soon after his graduation, he joined Agriculture and Agri-food Canada, where he served for 10 years as a lead scientist in the tobacco breeding and biotechnology department. During his service, he developed both open-pollinated as well as hybrid varieties using state-of-the-art technologies. While working with Agriculture Canada, Dr. Haji joined other agriculture professionals in founding the Somali Agricultural Technical Group (SATG) with the mission to bring peace and prosperity through sustainable agriculture development (<a href="http://www.satg.org">www.satg.org</a>).
Dr. Haji is also the founder of Filsan Inc (<a href="http://www.filsansomalia.org">www.filsansomalia.org</a>). which is a private company engaged in introducing new innovative agriculture technologies with the vision to translate science into action.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan Gavin has consulted with SATG in the past, but at the time of this writing, has no active commitments or engagements with the organization.</span></em></p>
For decades Somalia has been in a near-constant state of food insecurity. This is due to a combination of stagnant crop production, a rapidly increasing population and political unrest.
Paul Porter, Professor Emeritus, Cropping Systems Agronomist, University of Minnesota
Hussein Haji, Executive Director of the Somali Agriculture Technical Group and Lecturer, City University of Mogadishu
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/149003
2020-11-08T09:11:34Z
2020-11-08T09:11:34Z
Women’s memories of food offer insights into Mozambique’s liberation struggle
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367566/original/file-20201104-15-1opvl7m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Jonna Katto</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We don’t just taste food. Aromas, visual images, sounds and touch are equally part of our eating experience. Food also evokes feelings. We can experience it with joy but also with displeasure. This sensorily evocative power of food makes it an important site for remembering the past, which in turn influences our relation to food in the present.</p>
<p>There is much important literature in Africa that deals with <a href="https://theconversation.com/investing-in-science-can-help-put-food-on-africas-plates-64017">food security</a> and the biological necessity of eating. However, my research explores how food is connected to remembering and making sense of the past, especially a violent past.</p>
<p>Food was not my main focus when I set out to conduct <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03057070.2020.1793518">research</a> on women ex-combatants’ lived experiences of the Mozambican liberation struggle in northern Niassa province. Yet food and cooking continually came up in my life history interviews with them.</p>
<h2>The women of the struggle</h2>
<p>The Mozambican <a href="https://artsandculture.google.com/exhibit/the-struggle-for-freedom-in-mozambique-jstor/QRl-vPcs?hl=en">liberation struggle</a> against Portuguese colonial rule was mainly fought in the northern bush thickets. Led by the Mozambique Liberation Front (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Frelimo">Frelimo</a>), it lasted from 1964 to 1974. The combatants and civilian populations that supported them lived in very difficult bush environments.</p>
<p>Most of these combatants were young people. I was interested especially in Frelimo’s female detachment, many of whom were in their early teens when recruited. Their main job in the military camps in the beginning was to cook for the male soldiers. However, after 1967 they started receiving military training and became comrades-in-arms, mostly mobilising the population to support Frelimo and working in the bush nurseries and hospitals.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367509/original/file-20201104-23-117mwis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two rustic structures of logs and woven sticks with a rooster pecking at the earth in the foreground and a grassy veld in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367509/original/file-20201104-23-117mwis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367509/original/file-20201104-23-117mwis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367509/original/file-20201104-23-117mwis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367509/original/file-20201104-23-117mwis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367509/original/file-20201104-23-117mwis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367509/original/file-20201104-23-117mwis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367509/original/file-20201104-23-117mwis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A full granary of maize in N’kalapa in Mozambique.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Jonna Katto</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I interviewed 34 female ex-combatants, starting with their childhood memories. This was followed by an interview on their work and life during the struggle and a third on their experiences after independence. I also conducted individual and group interviews with 15 male ex-combatants.</p>
<h2>Food and danger</h2>
<p>Growing up in the rural communities of northern Niassa, most remembered their childhood foodscapes as plentiful. Their principal food was <em>wugadi</em> (stiff porridge from maize flour) with an accompanying dish of beans or the leaves of pumpkins, beans or sweet potatoes boiled with salt.</p>
<p>But war disrupted normal village life. In peace time, seasonal changes brought different foods, the rainy season associated with the joy of a new growing cycle. But in the time of war the ex-combatants remembered rain further intensifying the painful conditions of the bush.</p>
<p>Food became a constant struggle. Due to heavy bombardments by the colonial troops, the cultivation of crops was extremely difficult. There were periods in which the guerrillas experienced intense hunger and were forced to eat things considered inedible during peacetime. </p>
<p>One ex-combatant, Rosa Mustaffa, remembers how the guerrillas were forced to eat just about anything that happened in their path, just to “get rid of the feeling of hunger”. Others observed the monkeys to see which roots they were digging up. What didn’t kill the monkeys was considered suitable for humans too.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367516/original/file-20201104-17-1yv0i87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three dishes of food in different metal plates rest on a woven mat." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367516/original/file-20201104-17-1yv0i87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367516/original/file-20201104-17-1yv0i87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367516/original/file-20201104-17-1yv0i87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367516/original/file-20201104-17-1yv0i87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367516/original/file-20201104-17-1yv0i87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367516/original/file-20201104-17-1yv0i87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367516/original/file-20201104-17-1yv0i87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wugadi and pumpkin leaves cooked with red onion and tomatoes, with dried usipa fish.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Jonna Katto</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Food became associated with danger. The “things of the bush” could kill a person. Helena Baide explained how the guerrillas cooked poisonous fruits and roots to eat, taking the whole day and changing the cooking water continuously. Ash was added to the water to mitigate the bitter taste associated with poison.</p>
<p>Honey and game meat were the main sources of nourishment, but hunting posed a danger as it could alert the enemy to their location. The guerrillas learned to farm and cook differently in wartime. They cultivated small, dispersed fields on river banks, partially under the cover of trees. Hearing the noise of aeroplanes, they would flee to nearby bunkers. Or they farmed in the moonlight.</p>
<p>The noise of the pestle and smoke from cooking fires could also draw the enemy’s attention. Often cooking was done at night under the cover of trees.</p>
<h2>The taste of freedom</h2>
<p>For many, the promise of liberation carried food-related dreams. This is the future that Assiato Muemedi spoke of imagining during the war:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I will cook with cooking oil, build a house and open a big field to eat food with my children. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>After being demobilised, the transition to civilian life was easier for some than others. Many of the young female ex-combatants had been forced to leave home so early that they had not learned, for instance, how to cook and farm properly.</p>
<p>Those that were older found it easier, and they spoke of continuing the work of their ancestors, cultivating crops such as beans, maize, potatoes (regular and sweet) and cassava.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367565/original/file-20201104-15-1oh6388.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A hand stirs a steaming and battered metal pot with a spoon. The contents resemble a stew." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367565/original/file-20201104-15-1oh6388.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367565/original/file-20201104-15-1oh6388.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367565/original/file-20201104-15-1oh6388.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367565/original/file-20201104-15-1oh6388.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367565/original/file-20201104-15-1oh6388.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367565/original/file-20201104-15-1oh6388.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367565/original/file-20201104-15-1oh6388.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cooking beans with cabbage, carrots, green pepper and potatoes in a refogado of oil, tomatoes and red onion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Jonna Katto</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For most ex-combatants, food in peacetime has in many ways been a “liberating” experience of pleasure and fulfilment. Many experience freedom to cultivate, to eat together in peace with family or to buy basic items from nearby markets. This has helped to forget the bad things they ate in the bush.</p>
<p>Yet eating has not only been a positive experience. The idea of “eating badly” is, in the ex-combatants’ accounts, strongly associated with their current experiences of social division and inequality.</p>
<p>During the struggle, Frelimo’s political talk of unity, freedom and a future good life gave the combatants strength to endure hardship. And they remember that, while they ate badly, they ate together and shared the little they had.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-african-food-basket-should-be-full-of-beans-and-other-pulses-60207">Why the African food basket should be full of beans and other pulses</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Yet these days the former comrades-in-arms of the Niassa forests are divided by space, education and class. Most of those in leadership were transferred to Maputo after independence as part of Frelimo’s state-building project.</p>
<p>The ex-combatants in Niassa criticise the elite in Maputo for eating well at the expense of the majority of their former colleagues, who are unable to participate in the new consumerist modernity. In this context, it is the imagined diets of the nationalist elites that have come to symbolise freedom and liberation.</p>
<h2>A bitter aftertaste</h2>
<p>The official history of the Mozambican independence war is a linear narrative that proclaims the happy ending of liberation. Yet this narrative ignores the violence that is intimately part of its lived history.</p>
<p>Liberation takes on many different meanings in contemporary Mozambique.</p>
<p>Studying the ex-combatants’ food memories shows how the history of liberation is not a closed process. They continue trying to make sense of their past and present experiences (and even future anticipations) of violence. Food plays a role in this.</p>
<p>Even today bodily memories of food-related violence persist. So while food again animates their senses, liberation has, for many, a slightly bitter aftertaste.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149003/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonna Katto received funding for this research from the Finnish Cultural Foundation. She is affiliated with Ghent University and the University of Helsinki. </span></em></p>
The ex-combatants’ food memories show how they continue trying to make sense of both their past and present experiences of violence.
Jonna Katto, Postdoctoral researcher, Ghent University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/144583
2020-09-02T14:52:54Z
2020-09-02T14:52:54Z
Why more Ugandan farmers aren’t adopting drought tolerant maize
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353608/original/file-20200819-24-lb8bbd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A farmer inspects his maize in Uganda.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by: Godong/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Maize is <a href="https://croplife.org/news-views/sharing-the-story/maize-from-uganda/#:%7E:text=Maize%20is%20one%20of%20the,their%20main%20source%20of%20income./">one of</a> the most important cereal crops in Uganda. In particular, smallholder farmers rely on it for food and as a cash crop. They also grow it as an <a href="https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/Pnadw642.pdf">important export crop</a>.</p>
<p>Over the years, total maize production in Uganda has gradually increased, <a href="https://knoema.com/atlas/Uganda/topics/Agriculture/Crops-Production-Quantity-tonnes/Maize-production">from roughly</a> 800,000 tonnes in 2000 to 2,575,000 tonnes in 2019. But this is largely <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/acsj/article/view/156973">due to</a> a steady expansion of maize acreage, little from improved productivity. </p>
<p>Low productivity is <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322952923_Adoption_of_Improved_Varieties_and_Input_Elasticities_Among_Smallholder_Maize_Farmers_in_Kabarole_District-Western_Uganda_Citation">one of</a> the biggest challenges facing Uganda’s maize industry. The reason for this is that, as most maize farmers are smallholders, their use of agricultural technology, such as fertiliser and improved seed, is <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322952923_Adoption_of_Improved_Varieties_and_Input_Elasticities_Among_Smallholder_Maize_Farmers_in_Kabarole_District-Western_Uganda_Citation">very limited</a>. There are also concerns that changes in temperature and rainfall – specifically <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026483771630775X">increases</a> in temperature and decreases in rainfall – will further affect maize production. </p>
<p>To address these challenges, in 1991 Uganda <a href="https://tasai.org/wp-content/themes/tasai2016/info_portal/Uganda/National%20Crop%20Variety%20List%20for%20Uganda%20(2015).pdf">released</a> improved maize varieties with drought tolerance.</p>
<p>Although it depends on the conditions of the maize growing areas, studies indicated that <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/CA2545EN/ca2545en.pdf">compared with</a> local varieties, drought-tolerant maize can increase <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837718314534">yields by 15%</a>. It also <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837718314534">reduced</a> the probability of crop failure by 30%. </p>
<p>But, even after 30 years, drought-tolerant maize has yet to be widely adopted by smallholders. In one study, which covered 1,000 households, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40100-019-0135-7">just 14%</a> used the modified seed in their fields. </p>
<p>I <a href="https://openagriculturejournal.com/VOLUME/14/PAGE/98/FULLTEXT/">set out to understand</a> why smallholders did or didn’t plant drought tolerant maize. To do this I used available literature, policy documents and reports. </p>
<p>I found that the constraints to adoption included: </p>
<ul>
<li>different farmer characteristics such as wealth or education level; </li>
<li>a lack of information or understanding about the seeds; </li>
<li>the attributes of the seeds themselves and whether they meet the farmers’ needs; and</li>
<li>counterfeit seed and fertiliser in markets.</li>
</ul>
<p>For drought-tolerant maize to be more widely adopted, it’s crucial that policymakers support smallholders with effective information campaigns and subsidies. They must also ensure the markets for the seed and complementary fertiliser are reliable and meet farmer needs. </p>
<h2>Current constraints</h2>
<p>There are two seed systems in Uganda. One is formal and the other informal. Through the formal system, improved seeds, including drought-tolerant seeds, are developed under the National Agricultural Research Organisation. The National Seed Certification Services regulates the formal seed sector from variety listing to seed certification for commercial seeds that private seed companies distribute. But in Uganda, <a href="http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/uga175068.pdf">85%</a> of seeds planted – which includes local maize varieties – are through the informal system. </p>
<p>Most maize farmers in Uganda <a href="https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/101714/">are</a> resource-constrained smallholders. Thus, their decision to adopt the drought-tolerant maize may be influenced by perceived economic risks. The seeds of the local maize varieties that farmers use are ones that they’ve saved from previous harvests, and may cost them nothing. In 2015, modified maize seed could cost <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/CA2545EN/ca2545en.pdf">up to</a> Ush6,000 per kilo (about US$1.60) depending on the variety, while the local seed cost nothing.</p>
<p>However, a <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/CA2545EN/ca2545en.pdf">study</a> calculating the costs and benefits of modified seed found that the drought-tolerant maize could be more economically beneficial. For instance, local maize could require more labour costs due to less resistance, if any, to pests, weeds and diseases. Also, the higher yield of the improved maize could compensate for the higher seed and fertiliser costs. This suggested that the reason for low adoption by smallholders may not be financial. </p>
<h2>Information and education</h2>
<p>A number of factors determine whether small-scale farmers adopt a new seed or not. </p>
<p>Farmers need information on how the seeds work, and will decide whether or not to use them based on this. Whether a farmer has relevant information <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40100-019-0135-7">is based</a> on the farmers’ network, specifically, contact with extension services, NGOs or cooperative memberships. Their understanding is also affected by levels of education or farming experiences. </p>
<p>If the farmer decides to cultivate the new seed, it must be physically available, accessible, and affordable.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40100-019-0135-7">studies</a> also show that even when critical conditions are met – farmers have awareness, access and can afford the seeds – universal adoption is highly unlikely. </p>
<p>One of the reasons for this is because farmers prefer traditional varieties. This could be because the traditional varieties <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/acsj/article/view/156973">may be more</a> resistant to pests, taste more familiar or mature faster. There’s also <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/acsj/article/view/156973">evidence</a> that some drought tolerant varieties don’t suit certain local conditions. </p>
<p><a href="http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/uga175068.pdf">Counterfeit seeds</a> are another issue. Between 30% and 40% of seeds traded in Uganda are thought to be counterfeit. Farmers will be less likely to take the risk of using modified seeds if they believe they might be counterfeit. </p>
<h2>Political will</h2>
<p>All of these barriers to a way forward in improved maize seed adoption can be tackled with government interventions and public-private cooperation.</p>
<p>First, the information bottleneck must be addressed with awareness campaigns and training via extension services or international aid programs. If it’s already been happening, there should be investigations into why it’s not working and ensure that the delivery of information is customised and simplified according to the characteristics of the target farmers.</p>
<p>The government must ensure that quality seed is available at local markets or through extension services. There also needs to be better supervision to prevent counterfeits from permeating the market. </p>
<p>It’s also important for the government to incorporate maize farmers’ preferences in the breeding process, based on their local conditions. </p>
<p>In addition, the government must help smallholders who lack cash and credit with a subsidy or voucher. International aid programmes could distribute free packages with the modified seeds and fertiliser to the most vulnerable. </p>
<p>The challenge of getting more farmers to adopt the drought-tolerant seed is certainly overwhelming. But it is necessary to improve livelihoods and eventually the maize industry of Uganda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144583/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>HyeJin Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Low productivity is one of the biggest challenges facing Uganda’s maize industry. But smallholder farmers still won’t adopt improved seed.
HyeJin Lee, Assistant Professor, Konkuk University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/127137
2019-11-26T14:30:48Z
2019-11-26T14:30:48Z
What must be done to get toxin out of Kenya’s food supply
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302187/original/file-20191118-66937-d4eooc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Close-up of Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus producer of aflatoxins in corn. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">KOOKLE/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23JzdwQx4vY">An exposé</a> in Kenya has revealed that there are high amounts of a poisonous substance, known as aflatoxin, in many of Kenya’s popular maize flour brands. This is particularly worrying as maize flour is a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230712751_Consumer_Preferences_for_Maize_Products_in_Urban_Kenya">staple food</a> for most Kenyans. Part of the problem is in how maize is processed and distributed in the country. Vivian Hoffmann shares her insights on this and what must be done to prevent it.</em></p>
<p><strong>What are aflatoxins and how do they get into our food?</strong></p>
<p>Aflatoxins are toxic chemicals produced by a fungus, <em>Aspergillus flavus</em>. The fungus occurs naturally in soils, but under hot, dry conditions, <a href="https://www.sajs.co.za/article/view/6221">it can</a> grow and spread to a variety of crops. Maize and groundnut are two crops that are <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=6SAlBQAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA309&dq=Wilson+DM,+Payne+GA.+1994.+Factors+affecting+Aspergillus+flanus+group+infection+and+aflatoxin+contamination+of+crops.+In:+The+Toxicology+of+Aflatoxins:+Human+Health,+Veterinary,+and+Agricultural+Significance+">especially susceptible</a> to contamination with aflatoxins. </p>
<p>While aflatoxin is <a href="http://www.schoolsandhealth.org/Shared%20Documents/Downloads/Mitigating%20Aflotoxin%20Exposure%20to%20Improve%20Child%20Growth%20in%20Eastern%20Africa.pdf">a known</a> carcinogen, and can be fatal to people in large doses, some of the other potential health impacts of consuming moderate amounts of aflatoxin over long periods of time are less well understood.</p>
<p>The amount of harvest that’s affected by aflatoxins varies each year, depending on the weather. Either too little rain during cultivation (which weakens the crops’ natural defences against fungal infection), or too much around harvest (which makes it difficult to dry the crops before storage), can lead to higher aflatoxin. </p>
<p>Poor plant nutrition is also a risk factor because, like drought conditions, it weakens crops and makes then susceptible to being colonised by fungus. </p>
<p>The fungus can continue to grow on crops if they’re not properly stored (and moisture gets in), or if they’re not well dried. In Kenya, maize stored by smallholder farmers has been found to be far more contaminated than <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21843999">purchased maize</a> and is the most likely culprit for the outbreaks of aflatoxin poisoning that occur from time to time.</p>
<p>It’s not a uniquely Kenyan challenge. Aflatoxin contamination occurs <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5240007/">in almost</a> all countries. A non-exhaustive list of other aflatoxin hotspots includes the Southern US, Guatemala, parts of China, and India.</p>
<p><strong>What is being done to try to address this issue and what’s not working</strong></p>
<p>In Kenya, many food processing companies test inputs – like maize – before buying to avoid aflatoxin contamination in their products. But accurate testing is difficult because there is <a href="https://journals.tdl.org/regsci/index.php/regsci/article/view/74/107">a lot of variation</a> in aflatoxin across bags of maize, and even grains within a bag. </p>
<p>Under Kenyan law, maize that contains more than 10 parts per billion total aflatoxins, and groundnut above 15 parts per billion aflatoxin, cannot legally be sold. But testing procedures are not regulated.</p>
<p>On top of this, testing for aflatoxin at the factory gate doesn’t really solve the problem. When a consignment of maize or groundnut is rejected by one company, it is <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/agec.12346">simply sold</a> to a company with less stringent requirements, or on the informal market. This means the lowest-cost food is often the most contaminated, and people with the least to spend are at greatest risk of eating unsafe food.</p>
<p>In my <a href="http://www.ifpri.org/publication/demand-aflatoxin-safe-maize-kenya-dynamic-response-price-and-advertising">ongoing research</a>, I’ve found that a great deal of maize consumed in Kenya is never even tested for aflatoxin. This is because it’s either bought on the informal market, or consumed by those who have grown it. </p>
<p><strong>Are there any steps that the public can take to avoid consuming them?</strong></p>
<p>The International Food Policy Research Institute’s research on <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/agec.12346">maize flour in Kenya has shown</a> that more expensive brands are more likely to be compliant with the aflatoxin standard. Buying higher-priced maize flour is one way to protect yourself. </p>
<p>Also, if you grow your own maize or groundnut, dry your crops thoroughly while preventing contact with the soil, and store them in a clean, dry place.</p>
<p>Processed foods containing groundnut (also known as peanut) are usually more contaminated than whole nuts. This is probably because visibly damaged nuts are more likely to contain aflatoxin, and the best nuts are sold whole rather than processed. Grinding your own peanut butter from high-quality nuts is one way to avoid aflatoxin in this food.</p>
<p>Finally, one of the most important things you can do to avoid aflatoxin is to eat a balanced diet and avoid over-reliance on maize and groundnut.</p>
<p><strong>What needs to happen next?</strong></p>
<p>More resources are needed to deal with aflatoxin contamination at its root, which is on the farm. </p>
<p>The Kenyan government <a href="https://www.nation.co.ke/business/Farmers-to-get-Sh200m-aflasafe-in-aflatoxin-war/996-5311490-u3pai3z/index.html">recently announced</a> plans to spend Ksh 200 million on Aflasafe, an aflatoxin-control product that farmers apply to crops while they are still in the field. This is excellent news, but it’s extremely important that farmers are trained on how to correctly apply it for the treatment to be effective.</p>
<p>Other practices, including drying crops on plastic sheets, removing visibly mouldy or damaged crops prior to storage, and storing well-dried crops in hermetic bags, are also very effective at reducing aflatoxin. Plastic sheeting is available for around 400 KSh (about US$4) for a 15m2 piece, and can last multiple seasons, making it one of the most cost-effective solutions available.</p>
<p>There also needs to be a change in Kenya’s aflatoxin regulation to legalise the use of contaminated grain for specific non-food uses. The East African Standard for maize, which Kenya follows, <a href="https://law.resource.org/pub/eac/ibr/eas.2.2011.html">requires</a> all maize to meet the same aflatoxin limit, regardless of its use. </p>
<p>Since very little aflatoxin passes from feed into meat, crops that are considered unsafe for human consumption can be safely used as feed for animals to be slaughtered for meat. Many countries, including the US and EU members, <a href="https://aflasafe.com/wp-content/uploads/pdf/TPP-9-Aflatoxin-Alternative-Uses-and-Disposal.pdf">allow higher levels</a> – up to 30 times the Kenyan limit – in feed consumed by meat animals. Allowing food that exceeds the aflatoxin limit for human consumption to be fed to meat animals is a way to get this poison out of the food supply.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127137/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vivian Hoffmann receives funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health, the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Benckiser Stiftung Zukunft, the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Government of Bangladesh. </span></em></p>
Most of the maize consumed in Kenya is never even tested for aflatoxin.
Vivian Hoffmann, Research economist, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/118897
2019-07-09T11:22:55Z
2019-07-09T11:22:55Z
Climate change is affecting crop yields and reducing global food supplies
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282960/original/file-20190707-51253-1ftxmt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Farm land near Holly Bluff, Miss., covered with backwater flooding, May 23, 2019.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Flooding-Mississippi/684987e24f42433f8a7134ceebfc64a2/15/0">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Farmers are used to dealing with weather, but climate change is making it harder by <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/10/">altering temperature and rainfall patterns</a>, as in this year’s <a href="https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2019/06/14/nations-wettest-12-month-period-record-slows-down-2019-planting-season">unusually cool and wet spring</a> in the central U.S. In a recently published study, I worked with other scientists to see whether climate change was measurably affecting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148">crop productivity and global food security</a>. </p>
<p>To analyze these questions, a team of researchers led by the University of Minnesota’s <a href="http://environment.umn.edu/">Institute on the Environment</a> spent four years collecting information on crop productivity from around the world. We focused on the top 10 global crops that provide the bulk of consumable food calories: Maize (corn), rice, wheat, soybeans, oil palm, sugarcane, barley, rapeseed (canola), cassava and sorghum. Roughly 83 percent of consumable food calories <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116437108">come from just these 10 sources</a>. Other than cassava and oil palm, all are important U.S. crops.</p>
<p>We found that climate change has affected yields in many places. Not all of the changes are negative: Some crop yields have increased in some locations. Overall, however, climate change is reducing global production of staples such as rice and wheat. And when we translated crop yields into consumable calories – the actual food on people’s plates – we found that climate change is already shrinking food supplies, particularly in food-insecure developing countries. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/J3mRCZ8h8Vk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Feeding a growing world population in a changing climate will require a global-scale transformation of agriculture.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Adding up local trends</h2>
<p>The first thing we needed to understand was how temperature and precipitation influenced crop productivity in many locations. To do this, we analyzed data from up to 20,000 counties and districts around the world to see how crop yields varied in each place with changes in precipitation and temperature. </p>
<p>Once we had constructed an empirical model connecting crop yield to weather variations at each location, we could use it to assess how much yields had changed from what we would have expected to see if average weather patterns had not changed. The difference between what we would have predicted, based on the counterfactual weather, and what actually occurred reflects the influence of climate change. </p>
<p>Our analysis showed that climate change has already affected crop yields around the world. There were variations between locations and among crops, but when all of these different results were totaled, we found yields of some important global staples were already declining. For example, we estimated that climate change was reducing global rice yields by 0.3% and wheat yields by 0.9% on average each year.</p>
<p>In contrast, some more drought-tolerant crops have benefited from climate change. Yields of sorghum, which many people in the developing world use as a food grain, have increased by 0.7% in sub-Saharan Africa and 0.9% yearly in western, southern and southeastern Asia due to climate shifts since the 1970s. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282959/original/file-20190707-51268-zcsfhl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282959/original/file-20190707-51268-zcsfhl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/282959/original/file-20190707-51268-zcsfhl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282959/original/file-20190707-51268-zcsfhl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282959/original/file-20190707-51268-zcsfhl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282959/original/file-20190707-51268-zcsfhl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282959/original/file-20190707-51268-zcsfhl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/282959/original/file-20190707-51268-zcsfhl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change is boosting maize (corn) yields in parts of the U.S., Latin America and Asia, but sharply reducing them elsewhere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148">Ray et al., 2019</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A mixed US picture</h2>
<p>In the United States corn and soybeans are important cash crops, with a combined value of <a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/Full_Report/Volume_1,_Chapter_1_US/st99_1_0002_0002.pdf">more than US$90 billion</a> in 2017. We found that climate change is causing a small net increase in yields of these crops – on average, about 0.1% and 3.7% respectively each year. </p>
<p>But these numbers reflect both gains and losses. In some Corn Belt states, such as Indiana and Illinois, climate change is shaving up to 8% off of annual corn yields. At the same time, it has boosted annual yields in Iowa and Minnesota by approximately 2.8%. All four of these states now have slightly warmer and wetter corn growing seasons, but Indiana and Illinois have seen larger increases in warming and smaller increases in moisture compared to Iowa and Minnesota.</p>
<p>Our maps track these changes down to the county level. In eastern Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, climate change has been reducing corn yields even as it boosts them to the northwest in Minnesota and North Dakota. We see similar patterns for soybean farming: Reductions are moving up from the south and east parts of the country, where slightly more warming has occurred than in states farther north. Climate change is also reducing overall yields of other important crops, such as wheat and barley.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283162/original/file-20190708-51268-tzj22g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283162/original/file-20190708-51268-tzj22g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283162/original/file-20190708-51268-tzj22g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283162/original/file-20190708-51268-tzj22g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283162/original/file-20190708-51268-tzj22g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283162/original/file-20190708-51268-tzj22g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283162/original/file-20190708-51268-tzj22g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/283162/original/file-20190708-51268-tzj22g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change is reducing U.S. soybean yields in southern and eastern states (red areas) and expanding them to the north and west (green areas).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Deepak Ray</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From harvests to meals</h2>
<p>While these impacts on crop yields are notable in themselves, we had to go a step farther to understand how they could affect global food security. Humans eat food, not crop yields, so we needed to determine how climate change was affecting supplies of consumable food calories. In its most recent assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recognized that this question <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FINAL.pdf">had not yet been answered</a> and was critical to building a strong case for climate change action. </p>
<p>Our study showed that climate change is reducing consumable food calories by around 1% yearly for the top 10 global crops. This may sound small, but it represents some 35 trillion calories each year. That’s enough to provide more than 50 million people with a daily diet of over 1,800 calories – the level that the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization identifies as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_energy">essential to avoid food deprivation or undernourishment</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="roPww" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/roPww/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>What’s more, we found that decreases in consumable food calories are already occurring in roughly half of the world’s food insecure countries, which have high rates of undernourishment, child stunting and wasting, and mortality among children under age 5 due to lack of sufficient food. For example, in India annual food calories have declined by 0.8% annually and in Nepal they have fallen by 2.2% annually. </p>
<p>Reductions are also occurring in southern African countries, including Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. We even found losses in some rich industrialized nations, such as Australia, France and Germany. </p>
<p>Rich countries can work their way out of food calorie shortages by importing food. But poorer countries may need help. Short-term strategies could include using our findings to breed or increase cultivation of crops that are resilient to or even benefit from climate change. Farming techniques and agriculture policies can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/mind-the-gaps-reducing-hunger-by-improving-yields-on-small-farms-67287">help small-scale farmers increase crop yields</a>.</p>
<p>The fact that world hunger has started to rise after a decadelong decline is alarming. In the long run, wealthy and developing countries alike will have to find ways to produce food in a changing climate. I hope this will lead to a rethinking of the entire food system, from diets to food waste, and to more sustainable techniques for feeding the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deepak Ray receives funding from the Institute on the Environment. </span></em></p>
As climate change alters temperature and rainfall patterns, yields of some crops are increasing while others decline. The net result: less food, especially where it’s most needed.
Deepak Ray, Senior scientist, University of Minnesota
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/109283
2019-01-03T19:08:47Z
2019-01-03T19:08:47Z
Reclaiming lost calories: Tweaking photosynthesis boosts crop yields
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252353/original/file-20190102-32154-f71x7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A farmer shows smaller-than-usual soybeans harvested due to drought conditions in Tallapoosa, Georgia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Deep-South-Drought/39a0f96509c0426b8ad1bd69fdfe96f5/58/0">AP Photo/David Goldman</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What if your ability to feed yourself was dependent on a process that made a mistake 20 percent of the time? </p>
<p>We face this situation every day. That’s because the plants that produce the food we eat evolved to solve a chemistry problem that arose billions of years ago. Plants evolved to use carbon dioxide to make our food and the oxygen we breathe – a process called photosynthesis. But they grew so well and produced so much oxygen that this gas began to dominate the atmosphere. To plants, carbon dioxide and oxygen look very similar, and sometimes, plants use an oxygen instead of carbon dioxide. When this happens, toxic compounds are created, which lowers crop yields and costs us 148 trillion calories per year in unrealized wheat and soybean yield – or enough calories to feed an additional <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-arplant-043015-111709">200 million people</a> for a whole year. </p>
<p>Improving crop yields to grow more food on less land is not a new challenge. But as the global population grows and diets change, the issue is becoming more urgent. It seems likely that we will have to increase food production by between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix010">25 and 70</a> percent by 2050 to have an adequate supply of food. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.ca/citations?user=MBlLt6sAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">As a plant biochemist</a>, I have been fascinated by photosynthesis for my whole career, because we owe our entire existence to this single process. My own interest in agricultural research was spurred by this challenge: Plants feed people, and we need to quickly develop solutions to feed more people.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252327/original/file-20190102-32130-1bryd9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252327/original/file-20190102-32130-1bryd9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252327/original/file-20190102-32130-1bryd9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252327/original/file-20190102-32130-1bryd9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252327/original/file-20190102-32130-1bryd9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252327/original/file-20190102-32130-1bryd9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252327/original/file-20190102-32130-1bryd9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Amanda Cavanagh tests modified tobacco plants in a specialized greenhouse to select ones with genetic designs that boost the yield of key food crops.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claire Benjamin/RIPE Project</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Supercharging photosynthesis to grow more food</h2>
<p>It can take decades for agricultural innovations such as improved seeds to reach growers’ fields, whether they are created via genetic approaches or traditional breeding. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution#High-Yielding_Varieties">high-yielding crop varieties</a> that were bred during the first green revolution helped prevent food shortages in the 1960s by increasing the proportion of <a href="http://plantbreeding.coe.uga.edu/index.php?title=The_Green_Revolution">grain-to-plant biomass</a>. It’s the grain that contains most of the plant’s consumable calories, so having more grain instead of straw means more food. But most crops are now so improved that they are close to their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-arplant-042809-112206">theoretical limit</a>.</p>
<p>I work on an international project called Realizing Increased Photosynthetic Efficiency (<a href="https://ripe.illinois.edu/">RIPE</a>), which takes another approach. We are boosting harvests by increasing the efficiency of photosynthesis – the solar-powered process that plants use to turn carbon dioxide and water into greater crop yields. In <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aat9077">our most recent publication</a>, we show one way to increase crop yield by up to 40 percent by rerouting a series of chemical reactions common to most of our staple food crops. </p>
<h2>Photorespiration costs a lot of energy</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252299/original/file-20190102-32139-1ecd0o9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252299/original/file-20190102-32139-1ecd0o9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252299/original/file-20190102-32139-1ecd0o9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252299/original/file-20190102-32139-1ecd0o9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252299/original/file-20190102-32139-1ecd0o9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252299/original/file-20190102-32139-1ecd0o9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252299/original/file-20190102-32139-1ecd0o9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252299/original/file-20190102-32139-1ecd0o9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the process of photosynthesis, carbon dioxide and water are transformed into sugars and oxygen. Sunlight powers this chemical reaction.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/diagram-showing-process-photosynthesis-illustration-563007307">BlueRingMedia/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/">Two-thirds of the calories</a> we consume across the globe come directly or indirectly from just four crops: rice, wheat, soybean and maize. Of these, the first three are hindered by a photosynthetic glitch. Typically the enzyme that captures carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, called Rubisco, converts carbon dioxide into sugar and energy. But in one out of every five chemical reactions, Rubisco makes a mistake. The enzyme grabs an oxygen molecule instead. Rather than producing sugars and energy, the chemical reaction yields glycolate and ammonia, which are toxic to plants. To deal with this problem, plants have evolved an energy-expensive process called photorespiration that recycles these toxic compounds. But toxin recycling requires so much energy that the plant produces less food. </p>
<p>Photorespiration uses so much energy that some plants, like maize, as well as photosynthetic bacteria and algae, have evolved mechanisms to prevent Rubisco’s exposure to oxygen. Other organisms, like bacteria, have evolved more efficient ways to remove these toxins. </p>
<p>These natural solutions have inspired many researchers to try to tweak photorespiration to improve crop yields. Some of the more efficient naturally occurring recycling pathways have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/ers247">genetically engineered</a> in other plants to improve growth and photosynthesis in greenhouse and laboratory conditions. <a href="https://theconversation.com/helping-plants-remove-natural-toxins-could-boost-crop-yields-by-47-percent-97505">Another strategy</a> has been to modify natural photorespiration and speed up the recycling. </p>
<h2>Chemical detour improves crop yield</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252429/original/file-20190103-32148-15ghpt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252429/original/file-20190103-32148-15ghpt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252429/original/file-20190103-32148-15ghpt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252429/original/file-20190103-32148-15ghpt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252429/original/file-20190103-32148-15ghpt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252429/original/file-20190103-32148-15ghpt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252429/original/file-20190103-32148-15ghpt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252429/original/file-20190103-32148-15ghpt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The red car represents unmodified plants who use a circuitous and energy-expensive process called photorespiration that costs yield potential. The blue car represents plants engineered with an alternate route to shortcut photorespiration, enabling these plants to save fuel and reinvest their energy to boost productivity by as much as 40 percent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">RIPE</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These direct manipulations of photorespiration are crucial targets for future crop improvement. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption boosts photosynthesis, allowing the plant to use more carbon. You might assume that that this will solve the oxygen-grabbing mistake. But, higher temperatures promote the formation of toxic compounds through photorespiration. Even if carbon dioxide levels more than double, we expect <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-arplant-043015-111709">harvest yield losses of 18 percent</a> because of the almost 4 degrees Celsius temperature increase that will accompany them. We cannot rely on increasing levels of carbon dioxide to grow all the food we will need by 2050. </p>
<p>I worked with <a href="https://ripe.illinois.edu/team/paul-south">Paul South</a>, a research molecular biologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, <a href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/">Agricultural Research Service</a> and professor <a href="https://ripe.illinois.edu/team/don-ort">Don Ort</a>, who is a biologist specializing in crop science at the University of Illinois, to explore whether modifying the chemical reactions of photorespiration might boost crop yields. One element that makes recycling the toxin glycolate so inefficient is that it moves through three compartments inside the plant cell. That’s like taking an aluminum can into three separate recycling plants. We engineered three new shortcuts that could recycle the compound in one location. We also stopped the natural process from occurring.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252325/original/file-20190102-32136-b8lb67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252325/original/file-20190102-32136-b8lb67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252325/original/file-20190102-32136-b8lb67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252325/original/file-20190102-32136-b8lb67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252325/original/file-20190102-32136-b8lb67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252325/original/file-20190102-32136-b8lb67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252325/original/file-20190102-32136-b8lb67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252325/original/file-20190102-32136-b8lb67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Four unmodified plants (left) grow beside four plants (right) engineered with alternate routes to shortcut photorespiration. The modified plants are able to reinvest their energy and resources to boost productivity by 40 percent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claire Benjamin/RIPE Project</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Designed in silico; tested in soil</h2>
<p>Agricultural research innovations can be rapidly tested in a model species. Tobacco is well-suited for this since it is easy to genetically engineer and grow in the field. The other advantage of tobacco is that it has a short life cycle, produces a lot of seed and develops a leafy canopy similar to other field crops so we can measure the impact of our genetic alterations in a short time span. We can then determine whether these modifications in tobacco can be translated into our desired food crops.</p>
<p>We engineered and tested 1,200 tobacco plants with unique sets of genes to find the genetic combination that recycled glycolate most efficiently. Then we starved these modified plants of carbon dioxide. This triggered the formation of the toxin glycolate. Then we identified which plants grew best – these have the combination of genes that recycled the toxin most efficiently. Over the next two years, we further tested these plants in real-world agricultural conditions. Plants with the best combination of genes flowered about a week earlier, grew taller and were about 40 percent larger than unmodified plants. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252351/original/file-20190102-32130-1njbhjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252351/original/file-20190102-32130-1njbhjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/252351/original/file-20190102-32130-1njbhjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252351/original/file-20190102-32130-1njbhjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252351/original/file-20190102-32130-1njbhjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252351/original/file-20190102-32130-1njbhjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252351/original/file-20190102-32130-1njbhjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/252351/original/file-20190102-32130-1njbhjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Over two years of field trials, scientists Donald Ort (right), Paul South (center) and Amanda Cavanagh (left) found tobacco plants engineered to modify photorespiration are more productive in real-world field conditions. Now they are translating this technology hoping to boost the yield of key food crops, including soybeans, rice, cowpeas and cassava.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claire Benjamin/RIPE Project</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aat9077">Having shown proof of concept in tobacco</a>, we are beginning to test these designs in food crops: soybean, cowpea, rice, potato, tomato and eggplant. Soon, we will have a better idea of how much we can increase the yield of these crops with our modifications. </p>
<p>Once we demonstrate that our discovery can be translated into food crops, the Food and Drug Administration and the USDA will rigorously test these modified plants to make sure they are safe for human consumption and pose no risk to the environment. Such testing can cost as much as US$150 million and take more than 10 years. </p>
<p>Since the process of photorespiration is common across plant species, we are optimistic that our strategy will increase crop yields by close to 40 percent and help find a way to grow more food on less land to be able to feed a hungry global population by 2050.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109283/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Cavanagh receives funding from Realizing Increased Photosynthetic Efficiency (RIPE), an international research project that is engineering crops to photosynthesize more efficiently to sustainably increase worldwide food productivity with support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR), and the U.K. Government’s Department for International Development (DFID).</span></em></p>
Many of the crop plants that feed us waste 20 percent of their energy, especially in hot weather. Plant geneticists prove that capturing this energy could boost crop yields by up to 40 percent.
Amanda Cavanagh, Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/96661
2018-05-28T13:47:31Z
2018-05-28T13:47:31Z
South Africa needs to reverse corporate capture of agricultural policy
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/220487/original/file-20180525-51121-1pcy2lp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa is the only country in the world that permits its staple food, maize, to be grown from genetically modified seed.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africans are embroiled in heated debates about the expropriation of <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-is-still-way-behind-the-curve-on-transforming-land-ownership-87110">agricultural land</a>. But very little space is being devoted to how the country’s scarce arable land could and should be used once it has been acquired. </p>
<p>This is an important part of the puzzle given that the country’s existing industrial agricultural system has failed on a number of levels. A quarter of the country’s population goes hungry <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/hidden_hunger_in_south_africa_0.pdf">every day</a>. Price inflation makes nutritious <a href="https://www.pacsa.org.za/research/research-reports/food-price-barometer">food increasingly unaffordable</a> and – as the listeriosis scandal <a href="https://www.who.int/csr/don/28-march-2018-listeriosis-south-africa/en/">recently revealed</a> – food safety is easily compromised. </p>
<p>Unlike most other countries on the continent, South Africa’s agricultural sector is heavily skewed to industrial farming. Its 40 000 commercial farmers <a href="http://www.harvestsa.co.za/articles/farming-holds-its-own-in-south-africa-24809.html">produce most of the country’s food</a>. The official number of households engaged in small-scale farming is <a href="http://www.daff.gov.za/Daffweb3/Portals/0/Statistics%20and%20Economic%20Analysis/Statistical%20Information/Abstract%202016%20.pdf">around 1,3 million</a>, although this could be a low estimate. </p>
<p>The country’s commercial agriculture sector relies on expensive and polluting genetically modified seed, pesticides and <a href="https://www.foei.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/18-foei-who-benefits-report-mr.pdf">chemical fertilisers</a>. It is also heavily reliant on irrigation: the commercial agricultural sector extracts 63% of the country’s <a href="https://www.agrisa.co.za/wwf-agriculture-facts-and-trends-south-africa/">available surface water</a>. None of this is good for the environment. </p>
<p>South Africa urgently needs to rethink its existing agricultural model. The current preference for large-scale, high-input farming enterprises fails to trust in small-scale family-based producers’ ability to provide more efficiently for the market. Employing agroecology – farming without GMOs, chemical pesticides and artificial fertilisers – small-scale farmers can, with sufficient policy and practical state support, contribute significantly to food and nutritional security. This has been accomplished successfully elsewhere. </p>
<p>For example in the state of Santa Caterina in Southern Brazil, the state supported 60 000 small farmers with their agriculture, resulting in an increase of the sales of their produce by <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2017/10/24/enhancing-small-farmers-competitiveness-santa-catarina-brazil">64% after one year</a>. In South Africa, it is also possible to make small scale farms <a href="https://www.news24.com/Analysis/how-to-make-small-scale-farms-work-20180516">work</a>. </p>
<h2>Powerful corporate interests</h2>
<p>Why are South African policy makers choosing to back large scale farmers? The answer is that they have succumbed to pressures from transnational corporations that have made farmers dependent on hybrid or genetically modified proprietary seeds, herbicides and fertilisers.</p>
<p>South Africa is the only country in the world that permits its staple food, maize, to be grown from genetically modified seed. Over 87% of South Africa’s maize is now <a href="https://www.africabio.com/agriculture">based on proprietary GM seed</a>.</p>
<p>On top of this, the country’s legislation is weak. The <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/legis/num_act/gmoa1997286/">Genetically Modified Organisms Act</a> passed in 1997 does little to ensure biosafety. In effect it opened the door to the import and release of GM seed and enabled GM seed experimentation and bulking in South Africa. Instead of a strict impartial assessment of applications by the gene companies, the act allows for self-regulated risk assessments to be submitted to the regulator based entirely on in-house tests conducted by the GMO-purveying corporates themselves.</p>
<p>Nine years ago the state was forced, for the first time, to provide the public with information on GM permits after it was challenged by Biowatch, a South African <a href="http://www.biowatch.org.za/docs/misc/2013/A%20Landmark%20Victory%20for%20Justice.pdf">food sovereignty non-profit group</a>. </p>
<p>But the power of the large corporations has intensified in the intervening years. In 2012 South Africa’s Competition Appeal Court <a href="https://www.comptrib.co.za/assets/Uploads/113CACNov11-Pioneer-Pannar.pdf">allowed</a> for the largest remaining local crop seed company, Pannar, to be purchased by DuPont’s subsidiary, Pioneer Hi-Bred. This signalled the beginning of foreign monopoly control over local crop seed. This is now dominated by transnationals Monsanto, DuPont, Dow and Syngenta.</p>
<p>The country’s drive to adopt GMOs has resulted in some spectacular failures. One involved Monsanto attempting to persuade small-scale farmers at the Makhathini Flats, a floodplain on the Phongola River in KwaZulu-Natal, to plant their proprietary GM cotton. The project was an attempt to convince the world that GM crops were suited to farmers like this. Monsanto flew representative Makhathini farmers around the world to advocate the corporation’s position. But within only a few years the farmers found themselves deeply in debt and the GM cotton project <a href="http://rajpatel.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Can-the-Poor-help-GM-Crops_final-printed-version.pdf">was abandoned</a>.</p>
<p>In the Eastern Cape province small-scale farmers were initially given free Monsanto GM and hybrid seed. Traditional farming practices were abandoned in favour of mechanical tilling and monocropping of maize. Called the Massive Food Production Programme, it failed to meet any of its key objectives over five years and swallowed R570 million <a href="https://www.tips.org.za/research-archive/inequality-and-economic-inclusion/second-economy-strategy-project/item/2991-review-of-the-eastern-cape-s-siyakhula-massive-maize-project">in state funds</a>. Productivity hardly improved and small-scale farmers where left with unpayable debts.</p>
<h2>Support for small scale farmers</h2>
<p>Helping small-scale farmers requires a number of interventions. The first is practical support. South Africa used to provide extension services to farmers, which consisted of independent advice. But budget cuts have reduced the quality of the service and opened the way for corporate agents to take on the roll. For example, in the Hlabisa district, KwaZulu-Natal, the state and Monsanto have combined efforts to influence the GM crops <a href="http://bio-economy.org.za/2017/11/27/growing-gm-maize-outcomes-for-small-scale-farmers-in-hlabisa-kzn/">that farmers plant</a>.</p>
<p>As part of the land debate, South Africans should be calling on government to abandon its bias towards monopoly agribusiness. The first step would be to reverse the measures that favour international agribusiness interests. Secondly, biosafety regulations should be tightened. </p>
<p>And significant resources should be diverted to support small-scale farmers. In doing so it will be minimising land and seed contamination, honouring traditional practices of seed saving and exchange, reviving and building sustainable employment opportunities, guaranteeing soil quality and food sovereignty. It will be a positive contribution to reducing carbon emissions and sustainable water usage. </p>
<p>It is time to reduce the policy influence of agribusiness interests and answer the call for land with practical agrarian reform measures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96661/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Fig chairs the Biowatch South Africa Trust, which has sponsored the writing of this article. </span></em></p>
South Africa urgently needs to rethink its existing agricultural model.
David Fig, Honorary Research Associate, University of Cape Town
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/96312
2018-05-14T14:47:26Z
2018-05-14T14:47:26Z
How collaboration can help grow and transform agriculture in Africa
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218113/original/file-20180508-185500-t1yzfl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Farmers need support, investment and knowledge to thrive.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Giulio Napolitano/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s been four years since African leaders met in Equatorial Guinea to commit themselves to boosting agricultural growth across the continent. This is an important way to create real change in Africa. During the gathering, all the African Union’s heads of state signed the <a href="http://www.resakss.org/sites/default/files/Malabo%20Declaration%20on%20Agriculture_2014_11%2026-.pdf">Malabo Declaration</a>. It offered a blueprint for Africa’s agricultural sectors, to be achieved by 2025.</p>
<p>For example, the declaration called for at least 10% of any nation’s public expenditure to be allocated to agriculture and rural development. It also set out plans for increasing countries’ food security by intensifying agriculture in a way that didn’t destroy the environment.</p>
<p>There has been some progress in attaining these goals, as a <a href="http://www.nepad.org/resource/inaugural-biennial-review-report-african-union-commission-implementation-malabo-declaration">recent status report</a> conducted by the African Union Commission shows. But there’s still a great deal of work to be done.</p>
<p>The report shows that in 2015 and 2016 only ten of the 47 signatory states reached or exceeded the target of 10% investment in public expenditure in agriculture and rural development. These are Malawi, Ethiopia, Angola, Egypt, Sudan, Mauritania, Mali, Senegal, Burkina Faso and Equatorial Guinea. Some other countries had invested as little as 0.6% of public expenditure in these crucial sectors. Only 20 of the 47 signatories are on track to meet the declaration’s goals by 2025.</p>
<p>There’s no doubt that investment in agriculture can empower <a href="https://theconversation.com/at-last-evidence-that-african-agriculture-is-powering-economic-transformation-65656">economic transformation</a> in the region. But money alone can’t solve Africa’s agricultural problems. <a href="http://aciar.gov.au/page/simlesa-program">International collaboration is key</a>. And it can yield real results, as a project we’re involved in has proved. </p>
<p>The project has relied on multidisciplinary teams of both local and international researchers from the <a href="http://www.cimmyt.org">International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre</a>, <a href="https://qaafi.uq.edu.au">The University of Queensland</a> and the <a href="http://www.asareca.org">Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in East and Central Africa</a>. Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania’s departments of agriculture are also involved.</p>
<p>The collaborative effort has meant that it’s been possible to address multiple constraints. These include low crop productivity, poor market access, environmental degradation, and social inequalities. The project had a strong value chain focus. This involves linking – among others – farmers, agribusinesses, traders and policy makers. The result has been improved productivity. We’ve also seen reduced climate risks and improved soil fertility and soil conservation among highly vulnerable smallholder farmers in five East and Southern African countries.</p>
<p>Initiatives like these can help translate the Malabo Declaration from mere document to reality.</p>
<h2>Great gains</h2>
<p>The Sustainable Intensification of Maize-Legume Cropping Systems for Food Security in Eastern and Southern Africa Programme is led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre. It is funded by the <a href="http://aciar.gov.au">Australian government</a>. Researchers from Australia and the participating African countries have worked together with researchers from the centre.</p>
<p>The project was set up in 2010 in response to major concerns about food security across the eastern and southern Africa regions. So far, 258,393 smallholder farmers in Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania have benefited from our activities. We expect this number to increase to 600,000 by 2020. </p>
<p>To date, up to 91% of the targeted farmers have adopted at least one of sustainable intensification practices the project promotes. These practices include using drought tolerant maize non-GMO varieties; the rotation of maize and legumes; and intercrops, where a legume is sown into a standing maize crop.</p>
<p><a href="http://simlesa.cimmyt.org/publications/">Yields have increased between 30% and 60%</a> across the five countries because these practices and associated technologies were adopted.</p>
<p>We don’t only work directly with farmers. It’s important to develop skills and capacity in crop and soil management, market development, resource conservation, gender issues and project management and evaluation. </p>
<p>One key resource here has been the <a href="http://dfat.gov.au/people-to-people/australia-awards/Pages/australia-awards-scholarships.aspx">Australia Awards Scholarships</a>. These give people from developing countries the chance to undertake undergraduate or postgraduate studies at Australian institutions. So far this award has supported 65 Master’s and doctoral candidates. </p>
<p>Once they return to their countries, these graduates can contribute to solving the complex problems of achieving food security and eliminating poverty. They apply modern research tools, inform policy, train others and even provide leadership in their original institutions.</p>
<h2>Harnessing potential</h2>
<p>The Malabo Declaration is a useful document against which to measure progress. It offers countries clear targets. It sets metrics against which they can monitor their success. This will help countries to achieve many of the <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/">UN’s Sustainable Development Goals</a> by 2030 – including those related to agriculture and food security. </p>
<p>The work of the Sustainable Intensification of Maize-Legume Cropping Systems for Food Security in Eastern and Southern Africa Programme offers an insight into how these goals can be met. </p>
<p>Countries must develop a better understanding of constraints and opportunities so they can massively scale out more productive, efficient and sustainable farm practices. They also need to develop markets, value chains and supporting policies and institutions. And crucially, continued collaborations will be necessary to increase the continent’s capacity in science, extension, policy, institutions, governance and leadership.</p>
<p>These must be priorities to harness Africa’s agricultural potential and spur economic growth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96312/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Rodriguez receives funding from the Australian Centre for International Agriculture Research (ACIAR)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Dixon works for the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, and is affiliated with the University of Queensland, as Adjunct Professor. He is also a Board member of the USAID funded Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mulugetta Mekuria works for CIMMYT, which implements SIMLESA . CIMMYT is a non-profit making research and training institution with global mandate on Maize and Wheat research and development(<a href="http://www.cimmyt.org">www.cimmyt.org</a>). He receives funding from ACIAR for this work.</span></em></p>
Africa’s declaration to boost agriculture on the continent has seem some progress but a lot still needs to be done.
Daniel Rodriguez, Associate professor, The University of Queensland
John Dixon, Research Program Manager for the Cropping Systems and Economics (CSE) program, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research
Mulugetta Mekuria, Senior Scientist: Agricultural Economics and regional representative for the CIMMYT in Southern Africa, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/88205
2017-11-29T14:55:01Z
2017-11-29T14:55:01Z
Land reform is a Zimbabwe success story – it will be the basis for economic recovery under Mnangagwa
<p>In his <a href="http://www.chronicle.co.zw/president-mnangagwas-inauguration-speech-in-full/">speech</a> after being sworn in as Zimbabwe’s new president on November 24, Emmerson Mnangagwa, stressed the role of the country’s land reform farmers in boosting the country’s economic recovery. They have excelled recently. </p>
<p>Zimbabwe produced more maize in 2017 than was ever grown by white farmers, who have repeatedly been praised for making the country into the <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/21/news/economy/zimbabwe-economy-history-robert-mugabe-resigns/index.html">bread basket of Africa</a>. Maize production in 2017 was <a href="https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=zw&commodity=corn&graph=production">2.2m tonnes</a>, the highest in two decades. </p>
<p>Good rains helped, but even the <a href="https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/GRAIN%20AND%20FEED%20ANNUAL%20REPORT%20_Pretoria_Zimbabwe_7-26-2017.pdf">United States Department of Agriculture</a> said the huge increase in maize production was “mainly due to favourable weather conditions and a special program for import substitution, commonly termed as "Command Agriculture”. That programme was implemented last year by Mnangagwa, when he was vice president.</p>
<p>Under the programme, land reform farmers signed contracts for a certain number of hectares and agreed to sell at least five tonnes of maize per hectare to the Grain Marketing Board. The government provided seed, fertiliser, and, if needed, tractors and fuel for ploughing, and the cost was deducted from the sale price of the maize. Compared to 2011, another good rainfall year, maize production jumped 700,000 tonnes – more than half of which was <a href="http://www.open.ac.uk/technology/mozambique/sites/www.open.ac.uk.technology.mozambique/files/files/Mozambique_377-17July2017_agriculture.pdf">due to the Command Agriculture</a> programme. </p>
<p>Earlier this year, before he was dismissed as vice president, Mnangagwa announced that the programme would be <a href="http://www.herald.co.zw/command-agric-exceeds-target/">expanded</a> for the coming agricultural season – when more good rains are also forecast.</p>
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<h2>The politics of land reform</h2>
<p>Robert Mugabe was displaced as president partly by pressure from the war veterans, who he led to victory in Zimbabwe’s independence struggle. But they had stood up to him much earlier, in 2000, as I documented in a <a href="https://www.rienner.com/title/Zimbabwe_Takes_Back_Its_Land">book</a> on the issue, written with <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2772435.Teresa_Smart">Teresa Smart</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jeanette_Manjengwa">Jeanette Manjengwa</a>, who was recently appointed to the Zimbabwe Land Commission.</p>
<p>Mnangagwa was a liberation war veteran, and as he said in his inauguration speech: “Dispossession of our ancestral land was the fundamental reason for waging the liberation struggle.” As we showed in our research, by 2000 the white farms were mostly under-used and the war veterans were fed up with Mugabe’s refusal to take them over. They moved against him. In a carefully organised campaign over the Easter weekend that year, 3,000 huge white-owned farms were <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/667621.stm">occupied</a> by 170,000 Zimbabwean families. </p>
<p>Mugabe was <a href="https://www.rienner.com/title/Zimbabwe_Takes_Back_Its_Land">initially opposed to the move</a>, but when he saw the popularity of the occupation, he reversed his position – and was happy to be blamed for the occupation by the British press and media. </p>
<p>The occupation was legalised and small farms were marked out on the land that had been formerly owned by the white farmers. But the new farmers received little support and had to pull themselves up by their bootstraps. It took a decade, and the economic mismanagement and hyperinflation of the 2000s did not help, but the 146,000 smaller farmers with land of six hectares saved and reinvested and became highly productive – and <a href="http://www.landdivided2013.org.za/sites/default/files/Manjengwa%20Hanlon%20Smart%20Zimbabwe%20%28jm%2C%20ts%2Cjh%29.pdf">created 800,000 jobs</a>. The development economist <a href="http://www.thezimbabwean.co/2016/05/small-towns-in-zimbabwe-are-booming-thanks-to-land-reform/">Ian Scoones</a> points to the way vibrant market towns have grown up around the land reform farms.</p>
<p>But a group of 23,000 medium-sized farmers with 10-50 hectares had limited capital to get start and farmed only part of their land. From their limited production they could not save enough to buy the fertiliser and tractors needed for the larger farms. Mnangagwa’s Command Agriculture programme was aimed at this group, and credit provided by the programme more than doubled their maize production.</p>
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<p>The other success has been <a href="http://www.fctobacco.com/images/Daily_stats_16/ZimFCVStats2009-2017E.pdf">tobacco</a>, with US$576m produced in 2017 – mainly by land reform farmers. Clearly, Zimbabwean farmers are willing to work hard, given the land and the opportunity.</p>
<h2>The compensation question</h2>
<p>Mnangagwa has been part of the government since independence, so this is only a change of leadership. Corruption dogged Zimbabwe under Mugabe, but nevertheless, Mnangagwa was already moving to curb it. Participation in the Command Agriculture programme was voluntary, but Mnangagwa used the army to check that the agreed number of hectares had been ploughed and planted. Some senior figures from the ruling ZANU-PF party were <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/2017/01/denied-bail-over-command-agriculture-inputs-theft/">arrested</a> for fraud for selling fertiliser and diesel that was meant for other farmers.</p>
<p>Officially no family can have more than one land reform farm, but as we found in our research, this did not stop Mugabe’s cronies taking several larger farms each. Last year, under pressure, a <a href="http://www.herald.co.zw/president-appoints-land-commissioners/">Land Commission</a> was named, and in his inaugural speech Mnangagwa increased support for it “to ensure that all land is utilised optimally.”</p>
<p>The new president will need to rebuild links with the international community, and a vexed issue has been the demand for compensation for displaced white farmers. Mnangagwa said in his speech that “the principle of repossessing our land cannot be challenged or reversed”. But, he continued: “My government is committed to compensating those farmers from whose land was taken.” But that is a fraught issue inside Zimbabwe, because the white farmers <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/zimlandpapers/rifkind">received their land</a> in the 1930s to 1950s only by expelling tens of thousands of Zimbabwean farmers already on the land.</p>
<p>Restarting and restructuring the economy will now be a priority. But Mnangagwa recognises the centrality of farming and the success of the land reform, so agriculture is likely to take the lead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Hanlon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Maize production in Zimbabwe in 2017 is at its highest for decades.
Joseph Hanlon, Visiting Senior Fellow, Department of International Development at the London School of Economics and Political Science and Visiting Senior Research Fellow, The Open University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/85548
2017-10-24T19:28:43Z
2017-10-24T19:28:43Z
Why Kenya’s short-term fixes won’t resolve its maize supply crisis
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191587/original/file-20171024-30583-bh3qj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A local miller prepares maize outside his grinding mill in Kibera, Nairobi.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thomas Mukoya</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Kenyan government recently made three policy announcements that are of great importance to maize farmers and consumers. The first was that a subsidy introduced in May 2017 to reduce consumer prices would be <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Maize-flour-subsidy-close--end-month/996-4132422-ykgb2lz/index.html">discontinued</a>. Before the subsidy, prices had <a href="http://www.nation.co.ke/news/food-prices-dominate-online-conversation/1056-3924908-p7iw03z/index.html">soared to an all-time high</a> on the back of dwindling supplies. </p>
<p>The second announcement was a significant increase in the government’s budget allocation to buy maize from farmers. The third was an increase in the subsidy for fertiliser.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, poor domestic supply caused prices to shoot up. The government decided to allow imported maize to come in. But instead of allowing market prices to prevail, it subsidised the imports to make consumer prices cheaper, essentially subsidising consumers as well as farmers. The food subsidy reduced the price of a 2kg packet of maize flour from 140 Kenya shillings to 90, a subsidy of approximately 35%.</p>
<p>In ending the subsidy of imported maize, the government aims to ensure that grain millers purchase locally produced maize harvested since August 2017. The government has also signalled that it aims to purchase the entire harvest offered for sale by farmers for the strategic food reserve by allocating USD$60 million. </p>
<p>Increasing the subsidy for fertiliser will reduce the input costs for farmers and increase maize yields. But the overall success of these policies is likely to be mixed, especially in the short term. </p>
<h2>The three interventions</h2>
<p>By the time the <a href="http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/analysis/Step-up-food-security-/539548-4127510-llbcy5z/index.html">maize subsidy</a> was introduced in May 2017, the price for a 90kg bag of locally produced maize was about <a href="http://ratin.net">4,500 Kenyan shillings</a>, compared to <a href="http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/885270/">world market prices of 1,400 Kenyan Shillings</a>. This huge price difference is attributed to high input costs, resulting in low productivity and therefore high per unit costs. </p>
<p>The subsidy stabilised local consumer maize prices. But it came at a huge cost to the government, which paid out USD$67 million (6.7 billion Kenyan shillings) between May and October 2017. </p>
<p>Once the subsidy ends, consumer prices are expected to increase by approximately 15% based on simulations done by Tegemeo Institute, the policy research institute of Egerton University. </p>
<p>Adding to the upward pressure on prices is the increase in the money the government is making available to buy maize stocks. It usually buys maize at a price higher than the market price. This has the <a href="http://www.tegemeo.org/images/downloads/publications/technical_bulletin/Technical%20Bulletin%20-%20Food%20situation%20assessment.pdf">effect</a> of raising the market price – and undermining the objective of reducing consumer prices.</p>
<p>Ideally, government should intervene on either the supply side or the demand side, but not both. For example, it could intervene to keep the costs of production as low as possible so that consumers would buy food at market prices. Alternatively, it could allow producers to sell at market prices and subsidise consumers who cannot afford these prices. The <a href="http://dfpd.nic.in/1sGbO2W68mUlunCgKmpnLF5WHm/cash.pdf">consumer subsidy model</a> has been used by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-launches-ambitious-food-subsidy-program/2013/07/03/683ec630-e3f4-11e2-bffd-37a36ddab820_story.html">India</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-economy-subsidies/egypt-tightens-eligibility-for-food-subsidy-cards-idUSKBN1AO134">Egypt</a>, where households are given a cash transfer to purchase food.</p>
<p>It has been argued that in the Kenyan model farmers enjoy a double subsidy. They get subsidised inputs and above-market prices from government. This forces millers to offer even more attractive prices to compete with government for farmers’ maize stocks. This puts inflationary pressure on consumer prices. </p>
<p>The USD$60 million allocated to replenish the grain reserve is significant given that for the current year the government had allocated USD$18 million (increasing the allocation by more than 400%). But it won’t mop up the current harvest. Government will buy a quantity determined by the price it offers farmers. Maize farmers have a strong <a href="http://foodtradeesa.com/hub/news/articles/north-rift-farmers-hold-protests-over-poor-maize-prices/">lobby which has influenced the price</a>. A high price means less is purchased. Purchasing less quantities effectively leaves the government unable to affect the price of grain by increasing supply when it falls short, a key objective of the strategic food reserve.</p>
<p>The government has announced that it will buy maize from farmers at <a href="https://twitter.com/cswillybett/status/918401110016249856">Ksh.3,200 per 90kg bag</a>. At this price, the government will buy 1.8 million bags, or only 6% of the current harvest. Monthly consumption is 3.3 million bags. The recommended quantity is three months cover. A three months cover allows the government to increase supply during when it falls short and thereby stabilise prices, while allowing time to source for more grain. </p>
<p>And the country will still have to import maize because it isn’t producing enough. Tegemeo Institute, assessing the <a href="http://www.tegemeo.org/index.php/2015-08-20-11-15-45/breakfast-forums/690-breakfast-forum-on-assessing-costs-of-maize-and-rice-implications-for-food-security-5th-october-2017.html">food situation</a> for maize and rice production in 2017, estimates that the maize harvest will be about 20% lower than this year. Erratic rain and an army worm infestation are the main reasons.</p>
<p>Usually, millers are forced to offer a price higher than the government price to purchase enough quantities for milling. For example, when the government buys maize at 3,200 shillings per bag, millers will buy at 3,400 shillings, which is 6% higher. Without the subsidy that guaranteed consumers a lower price, for which millers were guaranteed a subsidised price of 2,300 shillings, it is expected that millers will pass on much of the increase in maize prices to consumers. This will amount to 40% if they buy at Sh3,200 or 48% if they buy at Sh3,400. Therefore, to keep the consumer price unchanged, government may be forced to subsidise consumer prices or offer a rebate to millers. </p>
<p>The third move by the government was to lower the cost of fertiliser, offered through government subsidy. </p>
<p>Farmers will welcome the move. Research by Tegemeo Institute found that fertiliser accounted for about 15% of <a href="http://www.tegemeo.org/images/downloads/breakfast_forums/Cost%20of%20Production%20for%20Maize%20&%20Rice%20in%20Kenya%20%202017_COP%20final.pdf">the cost of production</a> in 2017. But, <a href="https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/252459/2/4.%20Makau%20et%20al.pdf">as has been shown before</a>, there is a need to investigate how the subsidy increase will affect private-sector fertiliser markets. </p>
<h2>Longer-term solutions</h2>
<p>To maintain stable production and prices, the government should focus on long-term interventions that will improve productivity and lower the production costs per unit. </p>
<p>It needs to plan better. For example, it must plan now for imports to meet the expected shortfall.</p>
<p>And the type of fertiliser that’s subsidised should suit local conditions. <a href="https://basis.ucdavis.edu/publication/policy-brief-targeted-soil-recommendations-may-improve-smallholder-yields-tanzania">Tailored fertilisers</a> have an effect on <a href="https://basis.ucdavis.edu/publication/policy-brief-fertilizer-recommendations-and-kind-subsidies-increase-uptake-and-yields">improving maize yields</a>. </p>
<p>When short-term intervention in the markets is required, it should be strategic and with a clear exit strategy. Such a response should be limited to managing shocks such as pest infestation and disease outbreaks. Currently, short term interventions seem to the only response, leading to the same challenges being repeated.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Njagi Njeru does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Kenya’s government responded with subsidies to tend to the 2017 maize crisis to ensure that it remained affordable. However, the country needs long term solutions to this perennial challenge.
Timothy Njagi Njeru, Research Fellow, Tegemeo Institute, Egerton University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/78197
2017-05-30T13:55:24Z
2017-05-30T13:55:24Z
Africa must re-adopt its orphan crops in the face of a changing environment
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171431/original/file-20170530-16298-d1s4iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prickly pear is a type of orphan crop.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A large portion of Africa’s people rely on several indigenous plant species for subsistence. These plants are often primary food sources for people and animals, and are also used for other non-food purposes. Most are farmed as food crops and are preferred by indigenous people and farmers. They are often hardy and tolerant, which means that they can be expected to survive better under varying climatic conditions. </p>
<p>But their agricultural importance is undervalued and they often play second fiddle to more <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/2/4/240">commercial crops</a>. Referred to as “Orphan Crops” – they are not classified as major crops, and are under-researched and underutilised. Examples of orphan crops are: African persimmon, marama bean, prickly pear, guava, and marula.</p>
<p>Diversifying global food sources with orphan crops can be a vital tool in combating food and <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/2/4/240">nutrition insecurity</a> that are worsened by <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300857">global change</a>. Orphan crops have the ability to battle a range of stresses like droughts and extreme temperatures. But invasive species also threaten <a href="https://www.news.uct.ac.za/article/-2017-05-02-new-smart-crops-to-underpin-food-security-in-africa">their survival</a>.</p>
<p>Invasive plant species such as lantana, chromolaena (devil weed) and <em>Parthenium sp</em>. (famine weed) are aggressive competitors. They displace indigenous species and encroach on farmland. Also, they affect the composition of soil, making it unsuitable <a href="http://www.cabi.org/news-and-media/2014/cabi-produces-new-video-on-invasive-weeds-in-africa/">for orphan crops</a>.</p>
<p>Besides climate change and invasive species, an additional threat to orphan crops is the lack of representation of these crops on the global market as well as the dearth of investment in <a href="http://www.scidev.net/global/agriculture/opinion/the-dire-need-to-support-orphan-crop-research.html">orphan crops research</a>. Most research funds from the public and private sectors are invested in the major arable crops such as maize, rice and wheat, which are considered <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jxb/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/jxb/err396">economically important in the west</a>.</p>
<h2>Better perceptions</h2>
<p>More than 95% of the global population’s food needs relies on maize, rice and wheat; with global food security dependent on fewer than <a href="http://www.crcnetbase.com/doi/abs/10.1201/9781420049244.ch14">30 plant species</a>. Essentially, people have lost interest in the use of indigenous crops for food and prefer the more costly commercial crops, despite <a href="http://www.cell.com/trends/plant-science/abstract/S1360-1385(16)00060-1">high rates of poverty</a>. If perceptions of these orphan crops were improved, poverty in Africa could be better managed. The dependence on major crops is disconcerting considering that Africa has its own crops.</p>
<p>There’s a rice crisis in western and central Africa, money and resources are being invested on <a href="http://www.africarice.org/publications/Lessons%20from%20the%20rice%20crisis.pdf">policies around rice</a>. This doesn’t make sense considering that the majority of the traditional dishes in this region are mostly orphan crop species like yams, finger millet, favabean, and bambara groundnut.</p>
<p>Indeed, there’s a growing realisation that Africa needs to focus on its indigenous and endemic crops. The New Partnerships for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) has recognised the need for the promotion of food systems that include indigenous and orphan crops to diversify diets beyond staples such as rice. </p>
<p>NEPAD, and its partnerships, is driving research that aims to improve the diets and livelihoods of 600 million people living <a href="http://africanorphancrops.org/">in rural sub-Saharan Africa</a>. Through the <a href="http://africanorphancrops.org/meet-the-crops/">African Orphan Crops Consortium (AOCC)</a>, 101 African crop species have been identified as important food crops to be <a href="http://Africanorphancrops.org/">researched by 2021</a>.</p>
<h2>Time to mobilise research efforts</h2>
<p>It’s important to mobilise research networks within African academic and research institutions to understand the agricultural and economic value of orphan crops. Also, the focus on invasive species research in other African countries outside of South Africa, needs to be prioritised. </p>
<p>It is also important for African researchers to equip each other with the appropriate skills for combating invasive species in order to protect food security. Since the older school of researchers in South Africa are often disinclined to engage with the rest of the continent, it’s therefore up to the new generation of young researchers to bring knowledge creation back to Africa.</p>
<p>The only way to change this, is through fair collaboration and knowledge exchange. In so doing, we can tackle the threat of climate change and invasive species on the continent’s food security using new and holistic approaches.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78197/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ethel Phiri receives funding from the National Research Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Palesa Natasha Mothapo receives funding from National Research Foundation (NRF), International Foundation for Science, and GreenMatter Green Trust. </span></em></p>
Africa’s orphan crops are under-researched and underutilised. They can be a vital tool in combating food and nutrition insecurity on the continent.
Ethel E Phiri, Postdoctoral research Fellow, Department of Genetics, Institute for Plant Biotechnology, Stellenbosch University
Palesa Natasha Mothapo, Postdoctoral Research Fellow Dept. Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/72890
2017-02-14T11:57:57Z
2017-02-14T11:57:57Z
Why it’s hard to control the Fall armyworm in southern Africa
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156736/original/image-20170214-25992-2nozor.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The native range of the Fall armyworm – <em>Spodoptera frugiperda</em> – is in South and North America. But it’s rapidly spreading across southern Africa. This follows the first reports of its arrival on the African continent in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0165632">Nigeria in January 2016</a>. Within a year it spread, reaching <a href="http://ewn.co.za/2017/02/03/sa-confirms-presence-of-fall-armyworm">South Africa by January 2017</a>.</p>
<p>The Fall armyworm is adding to the devastation already caused by the native African armyworm, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/armyworms-are-wreaking-havoc-in-southern-africa-why-its-a-big-deal-72822">Spodoptera exempta</a></em>.</p>
<p>The Fall armyworm problem has massive implications for people in the region. The moth is a severe pest of maize and other grass family crops such as sorghum. It poses a serious threat to African agriculture and food security as well as international trade through quarantine restrictions. Its arrival is a particularly heavy blow for southern Africa which is just recovering from a <a href="http://www.unocha.org/el-nino-southern-africa">severe drought</a>. </p>
<p>There are 208 million people dependent on <a href="https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Events/DakAgri2015/Cereal_Crops-_Rice__Maize__Millet__Sorghum__Wheat.pdf">maize for food security</a> in sub-Saharan Africa. Maize also provides crucial income for small-holder farmers in the region. </p>
<p>Understanding how armyworms breed, travel and feed is critical to managing the devastation they can cause. They have a number of characteristics that make them particularly hard to control. This includes the fact that the moths are strong flyers, the fact that they breed at an astonishingly high rate and that their larvae can feed on a particularly wide range of host plants. In addition, they tend to develop resistance to pesticides.</p>
<h2>Biological invasions</h2>
<p>Biological invasions like these threaten biodiversity, the functioning of natural and agricultural ecosystems, and ultimately food security. Sub-Saharan Africa is considered to be particularly vulnerable to invasive species due to its <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/113/27/7575">high dependence on agriculture</a>.</p>
<p>Usually the expansion of the geographical range of a species is hampered by barriers like oceans and mountain ranges. But an increase in international trade and travel has greatly facilitated biological invasions in recent decades. The larger grain borer, <em>Prostephanus truncatus</em>, another native of the Americas, was accidentally introduced into <a href="http://www.cabi.org/isc/datasheet/44524">Tanzania in the 1970s</a>. The beetle spread rapidly through infested consignments of maize and dried cassava. The species has invaded numerous countries since its first <a href="http://www.cabi.org/isc/datasheet/44524">introduction into Africa</a>. </p>
<p>There’s disagreement about how the Fall armyworm arrived in Africa. One suggested avenue is that it arrived on foodstuffs imported <a href="http://theconversation.com/armyworms-are-wreaking-havoc-in-southern-africa-why-its-a-big-deal-72822">from the Americas</a>. This is feasible as insects can readily cross borders with infested plant material. The species has been intercepted on shipments destined for Europe <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/food/plant/plant_health_biosecurity/europhyt/interceptions_en">on several occasions</a>. </p>
<p>It’s also possible that the Fall armyworm arrived over the Atlantic <a href="http://theconversation.com/armyworms-are-wreaking-havoc-in-southern-africa-why-its-a-big-deal-72822">through wind currents</a>. This is because wind-borne adult insects can move over vast distances. The Fall armyworm wouldn’t be the first insect species crossing the Atlantic in this way. The most famous example is the monarch butterfly, <em>Danaus plexippus</em>, crossing the Atlantic from America to the <a href="http://www.ukbutterflies.co.uk/species.php?species=plexippus">British Isles</a>.</p>
<p>Whichever way the Fall armyworm arrived, its rapid spread across the African continent attests to its high dispersal ability. As strong flyers adult moths cross borders with ease. In the US the species has long been known to use jet streams <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-tropical-insect-science/article/div-classtitlemigration-and-the-life-history-strategy-of-the-fall-armyworm-span-classitalicspodoptera-frugiperdaspan-in-the-western-hemispherea-hreffn01-ref-typefnadiv/EB7A3F758E7F1436A2FECDE39278CB61">for adult dispersal</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156738/original/image-20170214-26007-gkij2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156738/original/image-20170214-26007-gkij2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156738/original/image-20170214-26007-gkij2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156738/original/image-20170214-26007-gkij2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156738/original/image-20170214-26007-gkij2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156738/original/image-20170214-26007-gkij2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156738/original/image-20170214-26007-gkij2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156738/original/image-20170214-26007-gkij2j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Armyworm moths are strong fliers enabling them to cross borders with ease.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/wildreturn/14935803778/in/photolist-d3SNDY-6QqoXh-oDMjaL-gpfrtU-d3Uao7-d79a3h-oKPU7f-gpfpE3-6RGevB-gpfSJq-go4894-d8cJF5-6Vgc4Q-4SbUPG-fBJVZ2-bjeW4X-gpfGi4-go3K4K-fBJWmZ-go3LYr-go3AtY-jVVicb-kTMHYr-AvMn4p-jVSM8P-B9KERi-AvMsjz-yH2GUF-kTPkJ1-jVT77P-jVUMTG-jVSRpz-y3EsBr-go3Vmj-gpfHcD-aidc9j-bjeY2a-bjeXbR-vXH3Hz-w8WXXh-xeeuGH-d4uCF3-8SX6Kb-fmApcZ-ofsohw-wHoGwS-wHoG23-umzPC6-65nRGS-65ixHi">Andy Reago & Chrissy McClarren/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Biology of the armyworm</h2>
<p>The scientific name, <em>Spodoptera frugiperda</em>, refers to the grey-patterned wings of the moths and the fruit destroying habits of the caterpillars. The common name, Fall armyworm, is based on the habit of mass movements of the caterpillars in autumn.</p>
<p>The Fall armyworm has several characteristics that make it difficult to control. Apart from being a strong flyer, adult females are highly fertile, laying in excess of 1000 eggs during their lifetime. </p>
<p>The Fall armyworm has a large host plant range that spans nearly 100 plant species <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0165632">in 27 families</a>. Although polyphagous – the ability to feed on many plant species – the preferred hosts are grass based plants such as maize, sorghum, millet, rice, and sugarcane. The most damaging reports from its native range are for maize.</p>
<p>Another reason the Fall armyworm is difficult to manage is because of its tendency to build up <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0165632">resistance to pesticides</a>. There have been efforts to curb its devastating effect by planting BT-maize. But this remains highly contested territory in many <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0165632">African countries</a>. </p>
<p>The Fall armyworm has been reported to cause annual losses of US$600 million <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0165632">in Brazil alone</a>.
Caterpillars also feed on other important crops, such as cowpea, potato, and soybean. </p>
<p>At this stage we know little about the potential impact on crops in Africa. But the fear is that it could be devastating.</p>
<h2>Quick action is needed</h2>
<p>Given the severe economic threat that the Fall armyworm poses, governments and international bodies are <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-38859851">putting in place</a> emergency plans.</p>
<p>These include monitoring with pheromone traps to determine the spread of the Fall armyworm, road shows to increase public awareness and emergency <a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/south-africa/pest-alert-detection-spodoptera-frugiperda-fall-army-worm-first-time-south-0">registration of pesticides</a>.</p>
<p>Eradication of the Fall armyworm at this stage is unlikely. Control of the pest will be best achieved if managed on an international scale with southern African countries coordinating their efforts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72890/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerstin Kruger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Fall armyworms have a number of characteristics that make them particularly hard to control. They are strong fliers, can breed at a high rate and also develop quick resistance to pesticides.
Kerstin Kruger, Associate Professor in Zoology & Entomology, University of Pretoria
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/72822
2017-02-12T10:02:10Z
2017-02-12T10:02:10Z
Armyworms are wreaking havoc in southern Africa. Why it’s a big deal
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156373/original/image-20170210-23342-hnp6tx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Fall Armyworm has a devastating impact because it eats the reproductive parts of the plant as well as its leaves.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A combination of native African armyworms and Fall armyworms from the Americas are ravaging staple crops <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/sundaytimes/businesstimes/2017/01/29/Biblical-plague-stalks-SA-maize">across southern Africa</a>. If uncontrolled, they have the potential to cause major food shortages. The Conversation Africa’s energy and environment editor Ozayr Patel asked Kenneth Wilson to explain the threat and what can be done about it.</em></p>
<p><strong>What are armyworms, where do they come from and how do they travel?</strong></p>
<p>Armyworms are the caterpillar stage of moths belonging mainly to the genus <em>Spodoptera</em>. They are called armyworms because when they have ravaged a crop they march along the ground like a vast army of worms in search of more food. There are at least eight countries in southern Africa that have been hit by outbreaks of armyworms.</p>
<p>This sequence of outbreaks began in mid-December <a href="https://www.lusakatimes.com/2016/12/29/army-worms-invade-chipata-area/">2016 in Zambia</a> and has spread rapidly ever since. It is now as far south as South Africa. Because armyworms feed on many of the staple food crops they have the potential to create food shortages in the region.</p>
<p>The recent outbreaks in southern Africa appear to be a combination of the native African armyworm (<em>Spodoptera exempta</em>) and a new invasive species called the Fall armyworm (<em>Spodoptera frugiperda</em>). This new species is endemic to tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, where it causes considerable damage to maize and other crops.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156367/original/image-20170210-23342-ggcz0c.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156367/original/image-20170210-23342-ggcz0c.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156367/original/image-20170210-23342-ggcz0c.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156367/original/image-20170210-23342-ggcz0c.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156367/original/image-20170210-23342-ggcz0c.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156367/original/image-20170210-23342-ggcz0c.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156367/original/image-20170210-23342-ggcz0c.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156367/original/image-20170210-23342-ggcz0c.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The top photo shows a mature maize field before pests arrive. The bottom photo shows a similar field following an armyworm attack.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Top: Ken Wilson; Bottom: FAO Lesotho</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Fall armyworm was first formally identified as being on the continent as recently <a href="https://www.plantprotection.org/Portals/0/documents/Newsletters/2016/IAPPS2016-10.pdf">as January 2016</a> in <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0165632">West Africa</a>, including Nigeria and its neighbours. </p>
<p>It is unclear how it reached Africa from the Americas but it’s likely it arrived on imported plants. It’s also possible that it migrated across the Atlantic on favourable winds over multiple generations. </p>
<p>It is not yet known whether the recent outbreaks in southern Africa are derived from the earlier West African ones. But Fall armyworms are known to be strong migrants in the Americas. Every year Fall armyworms fly <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3434929/">from Mexico and the southern states of the US to Canada</a>. </p>
<p><strong>What makes them so devastating?</strong></p>
<p>Both African and Fall armyworms do most damage to the staple cereal crops such as maize, wheat, sorghum, millet and rice. They also eat pasture grasses which has an impact on livestock production. </p>
<p>The African armyworm – they can be 3cm long – can reach densities as intense as 1000 caterpillars per square metre, quickly razing crops to the ground. On maize, the number of caterpillars per plant is, of course, much lower but it can cause just as much of an impact. The insects strip the leaves of even mature maize plants bare.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156365/original/image-20170210-23361-173xa0q.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156365/original/image-20170210-23361-173xa0q.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156365/original/image-20170210-23361-173xa0q.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156365/original/image-20170210-23361-173xa0q.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156365/original/image-20170210-23361-173xa0q.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156365/original/image-20170210-23361-173xa0q.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156365/original/image-20170210-23361-173xa0q.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/156365/original/image-20170210-23361-173xa0q.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Right: African armyworm Left: Fall armyworm.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ken Wilson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unlike their African cousins, the Fall armyworm also feeds on a range of non-cereal crops. Nearly 100 different host plant species have been recorded. These include cotton, soybeans, groundnut, peanut, potato, sweet potato, spinach, tomato, sweet peppers, cabbage and tobacco. </p>
<p>Damage to maize is likely to have the biggest impact on farmers in southern Africa because it’s the main staple food crop <a href="http://www.iita.org/maize">in the region</a>. </p>
<p>The impact of the Fall armyworm is likely to be devastating because it eats the leaves of the plant as well as its reproductive parts. This damages or destroys the maize cob itself.</p>
<p><strong>Where have the most devastating attacks occurred? What was the result?</strong></p>
<p>In 2012-2013 the African armyworm cut Zambia’s <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/zambia-battles-ravaging-armyworms-that-threaten-food-security">maize production by 11%</a>. The latest outbreaks could lead to losses of up to <a href="http://paulshalala.blogspot.co.za/2017/01/zambia-may-lose-40-maize-this-year-due.html">40%</a> as an estimated 124,000 hectares of maize has been <a href="http://www.bizcommunity.com/Article/196/650/156440.html">attacked</a>.</p>
<p>In neighbouring Zimbabwe, seven out of eight maize-producing provinces have had armyworm outbreaks, and in Malawi at least 9,000 hectares <a href="http://www.bizcommunity.com/Article/196/650/156440.html">have been attacked</a>. Figures are not yet available for the other five southern African countries currently affected.</p>
<p><strong>What are the potential economic consequences if the problem is not arrested?</strong></p>
<p>It is too early to say what the impact will be on food production in the region. Chemical pesticides have been mobilised in most countries, though their efficacy has been questioned. In Brazil, where armyworms can breed all year round, controlling them <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-16/alien-armyworms-invade-corn-in-drought-hit-southern-africa">costs an estimated US$600 million a year</a>. The cost of control in southern Africa hasn’t been determined yet. </p>
<p>But it’s likely to be substantial given that many litres of imported chemicals have already been bought by countries desperate to protect their crops. This means that even if control proves to be effective it will have been costly. </p>
<p>The economic consequences could be severe if the Fall armyworm persists and spreads throughout the sub-Saharan Africa region.</p>
<p><strong>What is the best way to stop them damaging crops?</strong></p>
<p>Chemical pesticides can be effective against both armyworm species. But resistance to many chemicals is an issue for the Fall armyworm throughout <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0048357591902169">its native range</a>. It’s not known whether there is pesticide resistance in the Fall armyworms blighting southern Africa. </p>
<p>The variable efficacy may be due to genetic resistance, or it might be as a result of the way in which the spray is applied. The Fall armyworms are often inaccessible to insecticides because of their tendency to hide in the whorls and reproductive parts of the host plant. </p>
<p>Research is needed to work out which chemical is the best to control the strain of Fall armyworm in southern Africa. </p>
<p>But there are alternative approaches. </p>
<p>In parts of their native range in the Americas, genetically-modified Bt maize is grown to combat the Fall armyworm. This may also be an option for South Africa and some other countries where GM crops are already grown. But many parts of Africa do not allow or welcome GM varieties. And Fall armyworm has also evolved resistance to some Bt toxins, with some evidence <a href="https://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1143_21.pdf">for cross resistance</a>.</p>
<p>There are non-chemical, <a href="https://www.epa.gov/pesticides/biopesticides">biological pesticides</a> that could also be effective. These are pesticides derived from natural diseases of insects, such as viruses, fungi and bacteria. I have been involved in the development of a highly effective biopesticide against African armyworm in Tanzania. But this still needs to go through the commercialisation and registration process, which is both <a href="http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/blog/2017/01/natural-killers-developing-better-biopesticides/?platform=hootsuite">costly and time consuming</a>. </p>
<p>A similar biopesticide has also been developed against the Fall armyworm, but again this is not yet registered for use in Africa.</p>
<p>Biopesticides tend to be effective against a much narrower range of species than chemicals, which is good for the environment. But it means that they can only be used for a limited number of pests, often making them more expensive than chemicals.</p>
<p>There are also some other indigenous approaches that could be effective. This includes the use of local plant extracts like <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/52f220cbe4b0ee0635aa9aac/t/53d8f8d6e4b03775e0dd5a17/1406728406049/tephrosia+vogelii.pdf">Tephrosia vogelli</a> and <a href="http://www.webmd.com/vitamins-supplements/ingredientmono-577-neem.aspx?activeingredientid=577&">neem</a>, to produce botanical pesticides, and the addition of sand to maize whorls where armyworms are feeding.</p>
<p>Only time will tell what the full impact of this armyworm invasion will have.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Wilson currently receives funding from the UK’s Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and Innovate UK.</span></em></p>
A combination of armyworms native to Africa and those normally found in the Americas are ravaging crops in sub-Saharan Africa.
Kenneth Wilson, Professor at the Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.