tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/methane-1208/articlesMethane – The Conversation2024-03-13T12:38:06Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2253472024-03-13T12:38:06Z2024-03-13T12:38:06ZClimate-friendly beef? Argentina’s new ‘carbon-neutral’ certification could help reduce livestock emissions – if it’s done right<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580769/original/file-20240308-17800-vh4rq9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C0%2C5856%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cattle are major producers of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ArgentinaFarmersStrike/32b525a49646407fb02737682544e817/photo">AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Argentina, where beef is a <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210522-argentina-s-beloved-beef-becomes-bone-of-contention-as-prices-soar">symbol of national pride</a>, a government-led partnership has started <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/cambio-climatico-certificaron-en-la-argentina-la-primera-produccion-de-carne-vacuna-carbono-negativo-nid12022024/">certifying certain livestock</a> as carbon neutral. It’s a big step that shouldn’t be underestimated, but getting the certification process right is crucial. </p>
<p>The world’s livestock sector is a key driver of climate change, contributing around <a href="https://foodandagricultureorganization.shinyapps.io/GLEAMV3_Public/">12% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>. <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb1922en/cb1922en.pdf">Two-thirds</a> of agriculture’s annual greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock, with raising cattle for meat typically being the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food">most emissions-intensive</a> activity. While shifting diets to plant-based foods and <a href="https://gfi.org/initiatives/climate/">alternative proteins</a> can help reduce emissions, global <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb5332en/Meat.pdf">meat consumption</a> is growing with an expanding population and rising prosperity.</p>
<p>There are ways that livestock producers can reduce those emissions. However, beyond social pressure, ranchers have few incentives to do so. Unless those steps to reduce emissions also increase productivity, they typically become costs with little immediate benefit in return.</p>
<p>With formal certification, farmers can earn a higher price. This has been the case with certified organic or fair-trade products. If livestock could be raised in ways that produce fewer emissions and certified as climate-friendly, the resulting higher prices they could fetch might give producers an incentive to invest in reducing their herds’ emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A cow photographed through a tree canopy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580582/original/file-20240307-24-5jlkgj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Argentina’s new ‘carbon-neutral’ certification hinges on the grazing landscape sequestering carbon in trees and in the soil to offset methane produced by the cattle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cattle_-_Eldorado,_Misiones_(31449238075).jpg">Papa Pic, Eldorado, Argentina</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>Argentina’s certification approach <a href="https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/cambio-climatico-certificaron-en-la-argentina-la-primera-produccion-de-carne-vacuna-carbono-negativo-nid12022024/">relies on a silvopastoral system</a>, which integrates tree growth with grazing or production of grasses or grains for fodder. Livestock are raised in forest interspersed with native natural grasslands and cultivated pastures. The pasture and grazing are managed to return nutrients and organic matter to the soil. </p>
<p>The trees and soil regeneration methods both store carbon, leading to the certification’s claim that the cattle, despite the greenhouse gases they produce, are carbon neutral. </p>
<p>The certification, approved in early 2024, is a collaboration between Argentina’s National Agricultural Technology Institute and National Industrial Technology Institute and the Argentinian private sector, <a href="https://epd.inti.gob.ar/assets/uploads/libreria/S-P-07361-Eng.pdf">with certification</a> from the <a href="https://www.environdec.com/about-us/the-international-epd-system-about-the-system">International Environmental Product Declaration System</a>, one of the first and longest operating third-party verification systems of environmental claims.</p>
<p>This silvopastoral system may be hard to replicate elsewhere, but it’s only one way to reduce livestock emissions. I’m an <a href="https://keough.nd.edu/people/paul-winters/">agricultural and resource economist</a> and executive director for the <a href="https://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/">Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture</a>, led by Nobel Laureate Michael Kremer. Here are some other emerging innovations that could lead to livestock certifications that reduce emissions:</p>
<h2>1. Feed additives</h2>
<p>Innovative feed additives, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247820">such as red seaweed</a>, could reduce livestock methane emissions by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/AN20295">26% to 98%</a>, depending on the type of additive and how it is administered.</p>
<p>Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with many times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. About 12% of ruminants’ gross energy intake goes into digestive processes that generate methane, which the cows belch into the air. So reducing methane emissions via feed additives could also <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cows-a-few-ounces-of-seaweed-daily-could-sharply-reduce-their-contribution-to-climate-change-157192">increase productivity</a> while <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/climate/news/can-seaweed-cut-methane-emissions-on-dairy-farms">maintaining milk quality</a>. If cattle can conserve energy in the digestive process, they can redirect it toward animal growth and milk production.</p>
<p>Startup companies, such as <a href="https://blueoceanbarns.com/">Blue Ocean Barns</a> and <a href="https://www.future-feed.com/">FutureFeed</a>, have started to produce feed additives to reduce methane. However, products like these aren’t widely used yet, largely because cattle producers have no incentive to invest in changing their practices.</p>
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<h2>2. Gene editing</h2>
<p>Research underway into gene editing – intentionally altering the genetic code of a living organism – <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/food/news/can-crispr-cut-methane-emissions-cow-guts">may also have the potential</a> to change the microbes that produce methane in livestock’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-021-01014-7">gut microbiomes</a>. That could substantially reduce livestock emissions.</p>
<p>This type of innovation <a href="https://vcresearch.berkeley.edu/news/igis-audacious-new-frontier-crispr-editing-microbiomes-climate-and-health">might benefit farmers</a> who let their livestock graze in fields rather than provide them with feed. Compared to additives like seaweed, gene editing is meant to be a long-term solution, which would make it more cost-effective over time. But like feed additives, currently there is limited incentive for breeders and producers to consider this direction.</p>
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<h2>3. Advanced farm-management practices</h2>
<p>Advanced farm-management practices, such as improved feeding software, could also help reduce methane emissions intensity. These practices tend to be more affordable than other options.</p>
<p>For example, dairy production in sub-Saharan Africa is much more <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/CA2929EN/ca2929en.pdf">emissions intensive</a> per gallon of milk than production in North America or Europe, and cows in the region are only 5%-7% as productive. This is due to a host of management limitation in low-income settings.</p>
<p>Existing technologies for animal management can be adapted to <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">increase production efficiency</a> and <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/ab129327-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/ab129327-en#section-d1e24585">reduce overall emissions</a>. Methods of providing better nutrition and animal care for livestock that limit excess methane production are already <a href="https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2019-16576">widely used in higher-income countries</a>. These methods could also be adapted for producers in low- and middle-income regions, with support and the right incentives.</p>
<h2>Certification as a path forward</h2>
<p>Certification can give livestock producers incentive to use these methods, but certification systems must be carefully designed. </p>
<p>Claims like Argentina’s should be <a href="https://www.environdec.com/home">reliably verified</a> to ensure that the certification is credible. Argentina took an important step by including a proven third-party verification system, going beyond similar “climate-friendly” national programs <a href="https://www.climateactive.org.au/sites/default/files/2023-09/NAPCo%20Public%20Disclosure%20Statement_CY2022_Final.pdf">initiated in Australia</a> and <a href="https://modernfarmer.com/2021/12/low-carbon-beef-certification/">the United States</a>.</p>
<p>The organizations that verify certificates should play a role in establishing the rules, but so should governments. For example, feed additives alone are unlikely to reach “carbon-neutral,” but organizations are exploring whether <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">lesser reductions</a> could be sufficient for livestock to be certified as “climate friendly” and earn a higher price for producers. </p>
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<img alt="Cattle cross a dirt road with trees and rangeland in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580771/original/file-20240308-24-c14550.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Cattle graze in Argentina.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ArgentinaElectionsFarmers/c017cec73c3d425a91263832aca47bd3/photo">AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko</a></span>
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<p>Finally, certification will only work if consumers are willing to pay a higher price for carbon-neutral, or even just climate-friendly, meat and dairy products.</p>
<p>Higher payments can come directly from consumers buying certified products or through government regulations requiring all meat and dairy products be certified. For example, under its <a href="https://food.ec.europa.eu/horizontal-topics/farm-fork-strategy_en">Farm to Fork Strategy</a>, the European Commission encourages food systems that can mitigate climate change. If the commission were to only accept meat and dairy products certified as climate-friendly, that would create an incentive to pursue certification to enter the large European market.</p>
<p>Some environmental groups have complained that climate certification for beef and <a href="https://www.athian.ai/knowledge-hub/post/dfa-purchases-first-verified-carbon-credits-in-livestock-inset-marketplace">related carbon credits</a> result <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/175337/bs-behind-usdas-new-climate-friendly-beef-label">in greenwashing</a>, allowing companies and the industry to burnish their reputations while continuing to release emissions. But certification can also encourage livestock producers to take steps they otherwise wouldn’t to reduce overall emissions for a better planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Winters does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cattle are major producers of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. But there are methods that can reduce their climate impact – if ranchers have incentive to use them.Paul Winters, Professor of Global Affairs, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2225612024-02-07T13:11:48Z2024-02-07T13:11:48ZBiden’s ‘hard look’ at liquefied natural gas exports raises a critical question: How does natural gas fit with US climate goals?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573502/original/file-20240205-30-63bf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3784%2C2623&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A heat exchanger and transfer pipes at Dominion Energy's Cove Point LNG Terminal in Lusby, Md.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ChesapeakeBayLNGExports/60c6ff33c115496fb821bf89276bd5e9/photo">AP Photo/Cliff Owen</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Biden administration has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">frozen pending decisions</a> on permit applications to export liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to countries other than <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/trade/priority-issues/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements">U.S. free trade partners</a>. During this pause, which will last for up to 15 months, the administration has pledged to take a “hard look” at economic, environmental and national security issues associated with exporting LNG.</em> </p>
<p><em>Environmental advocates, who have expressed alarm over the rapid growth of U.S. LNG exports and their effects on Earth’s climate, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-pauses-approval-new-lng-export-projects-win-climate-activists-2024-01-26/">praised this step</a>. Critics, including energy companies and members of Congress, argue that it threatens <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/europe-faces-the-chill-as-biden-freezes-new-lng-export-permits">European energy security</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/cornyn-freezing-lng-exports-threatens-texas-jobs-18645141.php">energy jobs in the U.S.</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3RI02dcAAAAJ&hl=en">Emily Grubert</a>, associate professor of sustainable energy policy at the University of Notre Dame and a former official at the U.S. Department of Energy, explains why large-scale LNG exports raise complex questions for U.S. policymakers.</em></p>
<h2>Is the US a major LNG supplier?</h2>
<p>The U.S. is now <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60582">the world’s largest LNG exporter</a>. In November 2023, the most recent month with full data, the U.S. exported <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_m.htm">about 390 billion cubic feet</a> of LNG, a record high. </p>
<p>The U.S. has been a net exporter since 2017, with export volumes now equal to about 15% of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm">our domestic consumption</a>. This gas sells for higher prices than natural gas delivered domestically, but it also costs more to process and deliver. As of 2022, the U.S. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_a.htm">provided 20%</a> of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57000">total global LNG exports</a>.</p>
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<h2>Are there plans for exporting even more LNG?</h2>
<p>The U.S. Energy Administration projects that North American LNG export capacity – largely from the U.S. – is likely to <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60944">more than double</a> from its current level by the end of 2027. In the U.S., five LNG export terminals are currently under construction, and are not affected by the current pause. </p>
<p>Applications for <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/media/us-lng-export-terminals-existing-approved-not-yet-built-and-proposed">additional export terminals</a> are under review. These are the applications for which decisions have been <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/01/26/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-temporary-pause-on-pending-approvals-of-liquefied-natural-gas-exports/">temporarily paused</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing nine proposed new LNG plants in coastal Texas and Louisiana." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=284&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573559/original/file-20240205-19-bt2p5p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Proposed North American LNG export terminals as of July 5, 2022. Except for terminals in Alaska, Maryland and Georgia, most U.S. LNG infrastructure is already concentrated along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-10/7.%20LNG%20Maps%207-5-2022%20-%20Exports_ds.pdf">U.S. Department of Energy</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>How does LNG fit into a transition away from fossil fuel?</h2>
<p>LNG, and natural gas in general, has an uneasy place in the decarbonization transition. Natural gas is a fossil fuel. Burning it produces carbon dioxide that <a href="https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php">contributes to climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, natural gas that has been processed for use is essentially pure methane, which is itself a greenhouse gas. When natural gas leaks to the atmosphere from sources like wells, pipelines or processing plants, it adds to climate change. Since the mid-1800s, human activities – mainly, burning fossil fuel – have raised Earth’s temperature by roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 Celsius) above preindustrial levels. Methane has <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf603">caused about 0.9 degrees F (0.5 C) of that warming</a> above preindustrial global temperatures. </p>
<p>LNG is not a transition away from fossil fuel – it is a fossil fuel. Hypothetically, substituting LNG for more carbon-intensive fuels, like coal or other natural gas supplies with higher methane emissions, could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the near term. </p>
<p>But there’s debate over <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71ba">how much LNG is actually useful in that context</a>, especially when it comes to whether LNG would actually prompt switching from coal to gas, and if so, whether the long-term lock-in of fossil gas use is worth it. Meanwhile, investing in new LNG infrastructure means either committing to operate these facilities for years, or planning to <a href="https://energy.mit.edu/news/energy-transition-could-leave-fossil-energy-producers-and-investors-with-costly-stranded-assets/">strand expensive assets</a> by retiring them early. </p>
<p>LNG terminals also have significant local impacts. In addition to methane, they emit large quantities of other air pollutants, including <a href="https://thelensnola.org/2023/05/26/groups-seek-federal-intervention-for-lng-company-they-deem-air-permit-offender/">nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds</a>. Tanker traffic to and from them can <a href="https://www.ehn.org/lng-environmental-justice-2666656588.html">damage marshes and waterways</a>. Building more terminals, especially in areas where energy facilities <a href="https://lailluminator.com/2023/03/20/sacrifice-zone-gulf-coast-helps-meet-global-natural-gas-needs-but-at-what-cost/">are already concentrated</a>, raises important health and environmental justice concerns.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. LNG export boom could offer economic benefits, but also local and global environmental damage from producing, shipping and consuming natural gas.</span></figcaption>
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<p>A transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will require a commitment to actually shift away from fossil fuel. In my view, it’s not clear that deploying LNG will achieve this goal unless it’s done with an explicit plan and mechanism to ensure that the gas is only used where it is actually needed and can support an emissions phaseout.</p>
<h2>What do you think this policy review should consider?</h2>
<p>As I see it, the most important step is to develop a coherent national strategy for the role of natural gas in the U.S. energy system, consistent with the Biden administration’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/04/20/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-catalyze-global-climate-action-through-the-major-economies-forum-on-energy-and-climate/#">stringent goals</a> of making the U.S. electricity supply carbon-free electricity by 2035 and achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas economy by 2050. </p>
<p>Such a blueprint would need to include a plan for reshaping the nation’s energy infrastructure to phase out use of natural gas, along with coal and oil. In theory, it could include targeted deployment of gas resources to ensure that energy needs are being met while zero-carbon resources are deployed along the way. </p>
<p>I’d like to see a clear articulation of the climate, health and energy system impacts of approving additional LNG export terminals, with enforcement mechanisms in place to ensure that the U.S. will meet defined limits on climate and other pollution, and on operational conditions. I’d also like to see health and environmental justice considerations deeply embedded into energy and climate decisions in general, and especially for LNG projects. </p>
<p>These plants are sited mainly in communities that <a href="https://prismreports.org/2023/02/20/lng-climate-sacrifice-zones/">have suffered high rates of illness, premature deaths and environmental damage</a> from hosting <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/21/oil-refineries-pollution-gulf-coast-epa/">fossil fuel infrastructure</a> for decades. Many of them have <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/emissions-rising-seas-test-game-changer-lng-project/">said they don’t want</a> additional LNG development. In my view, without clarity on where the U.S. is going on this issue, it will be extremely difficult to make good decisions about LNG, and about natural gas in general.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Grubert served in 2021-2022 as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Carbon Management and, later, as Senior Advisor in the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management at the US Department of Energy, which has permitting authority over LNG terminals. She was not involved with LNG decisions.</span></em></p>The US, a minor liquefied natural gas supplier a decade ago, now is the world’s top source. That’s good for energy security, but bad for Earth’s climate. An energy scholar explains the trade-offs.Emily Grubert, Associate Professor of Sustainable Energy Policy, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193622024-01-09T13:42:17Z2024-01-09T13:42:17ZMeat and dairy industry’s attempt to change how we measure methane emissions would let polluters off the hook<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564347/original/file-20231207-27-cp062j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=137%2C168%2C1906%2C1119&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Methane has contributed [around 25%](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-023-02041-1) of the global temperature rise since industrialisation</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ksrecomm/26302605802">ksrecomm/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Lobbyists from major polluting industries were <a href="https://www.desmog.com/2023/12/08/big-meat-dairy-delegates-triple-cop28/">out in force</a> at the recent UN climate summit, COP28. Groups representing the livestock industry, which is responsible for around <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-methane-assessment-benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions">32% of global methane emissions</a>, want to increase their use of a <a href="https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CM-Online-report-layout-Seeing-the-stars-final-13-11-2023.pdf">new way of measuring these emissions</a> that lets high polluters evade their responsibility to make big emissions cuts.</p>
<p>Not all greenhouse gases are created equal. Carbon dioxide, the biggest driver of global warming, will build up in the atmosphere when continuously emitted, warming the Earth for centuries to come. Methane, the second-biggest driver, is more effective at trapping heat in the atmosphere, but most of it naturally breaks down a couple of decades after being emitted. The damage from a single burst of methane is intense but limited.</p>
<p>When emitted continuously, the additional heating caused by methane will remain constant after the initial rise. But ramping down methane emissions rapidly would have a swift and positive effect on global heating.</p>
<p>To understand the climate effects of different activities and develop pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, it is often useful to combine the effects of different gases into a single metric. GWP100 – a gas’s global warming potential over 100 years – has become the dominant metric and has been adopted as a standard <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/transparency-and-reporting/reporting-and-review/methods-for-climate-change-transparency/common-metrics">by the UN</a>.</p>
<p>However, GWP100 fails to capture the different ways methane and carbon dioxide behave in the atmosphere. It also masks the more intense short-term effect of methane compared to carbon dioxide. GWP100 simply measures the mass of each gas released into the atmosphere and considers 1kg of methane as equivalent to 28kg of carbon dioxide in terms of its climate impact.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A gas flare at an oil refinery." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565530/original/file-20231213-23-d65y9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carbon dioxide and methane behave differently in the atmosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gas-flare-oil-refinery-kimanissabahmalaysia-35-652862944">hkhtt hj/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So in 2016, scientists at the University of Oxford proposed <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2998">a new method</a> for modelling methane and carbon dioxide together called GWP*. This model is more complex and takes account of both the level of emissions and the changes in emissions compared to a recent baseline year. </p>
<p>But, because it relies on changes since the baseline year, GWP* can allow a historically high emitter to look good by making minor cuts to their emissions.</p>
<p>When used at any level <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4928">other than globally</a>, the use of the baseline year bakes in the current unequal distribution of responsibility for methane emissions and simply projects this situation into the future. The usual baseline year is 20 years before today, and so would imply rich countries’ retaining their high share of global methane emissions, mainly due to their high meat and dairy consumption. </p>
<p>This precludes any debate about the equity of responsibility for current and ongoing emissions, and favours today’s high emitters, while not allowing developing countries with low emissions any space to grow in the future.</p>
<h2>Twisted tools</h2>
<p>The tempting narrative that some in the beef and dairy industry have <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0f75">started to promote</a> is that GWP* (“the latest science”) tells us methane emissions are not as serious as we thought they were, and only small reductions are required. </p>
<p><a href="https://ahdb.org.uk/knowledge-library/applying-gwp-to-uk-national-ghg-emissions">Industry-backed statements</a> along the lines of the “UK’s livestock is not contributing to climate heating since numbers have not increased in recent years” may seem correct and convincing when looking at the GWP* results without delving into the nuances. The correct statement, however, is that the “UK’s livestock is not contributing additional warming compared to already high levels”. This is what incorrect use of GWP* masks.</p>
<p>This narrative is dangerous. It can be used to shift the burden of responsibility for tackling climate change further away from the agricultural sector. And it conceals the important role that methane reduction can play in keeping temperature rise to within 1.5°C, particularly by enabling near-term reductions of warming.</p>
<p>We need all emissions to reduce quickly and immediately. There are no trade-offs to be made.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0086-4">The authors</a> of GWP* cautioned that using it to water down ambitious climate mitigation targets would lead to invalid results. If GWP* was used properly (as a global climate model), it would show that GWP100 has been partially masking the benefits of rapid and permanent reduction in methane emissions, not least due to a reduction in ruminant livestock numbers. This is again due to GWP100 averaging methane’s effects over a century.</p>
<p>Because of the added complexity of GWP*, and future projections of the distribution of emissions of key greenhouse gases, it is not a <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5930">drop-in replacement</a> for existing greenhouse gas accounting metrics like GWP100. To do so is akin to setting a temperature target in celsius but then reporting progress in fahrenheit. </p>
<p>Research <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab56e7">has found</a> that such a replacement would imperil the Paris agreement’s goals. The meat and dairy lobby are (correctly) betting on policymakers not understanding these subtle yet vital differences. We must not allow these high emitters to shirk their responsibilities.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new way of measuring emissions may let the biggest polluters evade their responsibility to tackle climate change.Tom Higgs, Honorary Researcher, Lancaster Environment Centre; Consultant, Small World Consulting, Lancaster UniversityDmitry Yumashev, Senior Research Associate, Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, Lancaster UniversityMike Berners-Lee, Professor of Sustainability, Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189762023-12-26T17:16:10Z2023-12-26T17:16:10ZMeasuring methane intensity is a key step on the path to net zero<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/measuring-methane-intensity-is-a-key-step-on-the-path-to-net-zero" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>After <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2023/12/draft-oil-and-gas-methane-regulations-amendments-published-in-december-2023-to-reduce-emissions-by-75-percent.html">Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/biden-harris-administration-finalizes-standards-slash-methane-pollution-combat-climate">United States</a> both announced new policy measures to address oil and gas methane at the COP28 climate summit — just weeks after the EU <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/eu-agrees-law-track-reduce-methane-emissions-oil-gas-sector-2023-11-15/#:%7E:text=EU%20agrees%20law%20to%20hit%20fossil%20fuel%20imports%20with%20methane%20emissions%20limit,-By%20Kate%20Abnett&text=Nov%2015%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20The,of%20the%20potent%20greenhouse%20gas.">agreed to extend</a> its methane intensity standards to imported natural gas — it is clear that global policy to address the potent climate-warming greenhouse gas is moving fast.</p>
<p>As policy continues to evolve and <a href="https://www.pembina.org/pub/survival-cleanest#:%7E:text=A%20new%20Pembina%20Institute%20report,carbon%20emissions%20and%20breakeven%20price.">demand shifts toward cleaner</a> forms of energy, methane intensity will be key to assessing progress and regulatory efficacy, as well as ensuring the global competitiveness of Canadian product.</p>
<h2>Measuring methane</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00907">Methane intensity</a> is the quantity of methane released into the atmosphere relative to the amount of oil or gas produced. Measuring it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.3c07722">enables comparisons</a> of environmental performance across regions, companies, facilities, production levels, fuel sources and time frames. </p>
<p>With this data we can see where policies and practices are driving down emissions and where improvements are needed.</p>
<p>To effectively target methane emissions and gauge intensity improvements, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00769-7">you need to know</a> how much methane you have and where. However, studies <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01081-0">continue to show</a> that we lack adequate knowledge of its magnitude and distribution. Comprehensive measurement to determine methane intensity is key.</p>
<p>When it comes to methane intensity, some producers do a lot better than others. A study by researchers at St. Francis Xavier University’s <a href="https://fluxlab.ca/">FluxLab</a> found a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cesys.2022.100081">1,000-fold variation</a> in methane intensities among Albertan oil and gas producers.</p>
<p>Since Canada’s oil and gas industry consists of many different production methods and fluid types, methane intensity also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-87610-3">varies significantly</a> across regions.</p>
<p>Measurements collected by FluxLab researchers in 2021 show that methane intensity from offshore oil production in Newfoundland is quite low, likely due to a combination of technology advances (for example, flare recovery systems), regulation and high production volumes.</p>
<p>Natural gas produced in British Columbia also has relatively low methane intensities. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00769-7">Another study</a> showed B.C.’s overall methane intensity was lower than 2019 averages for Western Canada and the United States (though, at 0.42 per cent, it’s still higher than the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act’s 0.2 per cent methane fee threshold and the <a href="https://www.ogci.com/methane-emissions">Oil and Gas Climate Initiative</a> target). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/oil-and-gas-sectors-low-compliance-with-methane-regulations-jeopardizes-canadas-net-zero-goals-209956">Oil and gas sector's low compliance with methane regulations jeopardizes Canada's net-zero goals</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.bc-er.ca/files/documents/femp-guidance-july-release-v10-2019.pdf">B.C. introduced regulations</a> in 2020 to drive down oil and gas methane emissions, which the B.C. Energy Regulator is now working to strengthen.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150836">Heavy oil</a> regions have the most methane-intensive production in Canada. Certain production methods can have as much as 400 times the methane intensity as offshore production. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c06255">A recent study</a> of Cold Heavy Oil Production with Sand (CHOPS) production in Saskatchewan found that methane intensity just during production was four times higher than the mean carbon intensity of Canadian oil over its entire life cycle. Saskatchewan’s overall emissions intensity is also <a href="https://www.enverus.com/newsroom/greenhouse-gas-emission-intensities-unchanged-across-western-canadian-upstream-and-midstream-sectors/">getting worse</a>.</p>
<h2>Possible solutions</h2>
<p>Fortunately, reducing methane emissions — and by extension, methane intensity — is dirt cheap. A <a href="https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/2023-07/Canada%20Methane%20Abatement%20Opportunity.pdf?_gl=1*1pkktkd*_ga*ODI0NjQ3Mzg2LjE2ODAwNDI4MzM.*_ga_2B3856Y9QW*MTY4OTk3NDg2OC40Ny4wLjE2ODk5NzQ4NzAuNTguMC4w*_ga_Q5CTTQBJD8*MTY4OTk3NDg2OS40Ny4wLjE2ODk5NzQ4NzAuNTkuMC4w*_gcl_au*NjI3MzYxMzY5LjE2ODgwNDQzNDM.">Dunsky report</a> found that a 75 per cent reduction in upstream oil and gas methane emissions would cost as little as $11 per ton of CO₂ equivalent. </p>
<p>That’s far below the federal carbon price of $65 per ton of CO₂ equivalent and rising, as well as carbon capture and storage for oilsands, which could cost <a href="https://www.pembina.org/pub/cash-flow-modeling-shows-carbon-capture-and-storage-can-help-meet-climate-goals">between $89-144</a> per ton of CO₂ equivalent.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FF1a3ojIg3s?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">An overview of Canada’s newly announced methane reduction policy, produced by the CBC.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Canada’s newly announced amendments to its methane regulations will help drive <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2023/09/beating-75-percent-target-for-cutting-oil-and-gas-methane-emissions-is-canadas-next-challenge-minister-guilbeault.html">deep methane reductions</a>, so long as they are meaningfully enforced. </p>
<p>However, to credibly assess outcomes and achieve the reductions we truly need, producers and governments need to have accurate data on oil and gas methane emissions and emissions intensity. In addition:</p>
<ol>
<li><p><a href="https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-proposes-updates-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reporting-requirements-oil-and-gas#:%7E:text=The%20law%20requires%20that%20EPA,submit%20empirical%20emissions%20data%20to">Following the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency</a>, Canada should develop stronger measurement, monitoring, verification and reporting requirements to generate a more accurate picture of emissions and emissions intensity.</p></li>
<li><p>Saskatchewan and Alberta should proceed with regulatory development to update and strengthen their oil and gas methane regulations in a timely manner and follow B.C.’s lead by basing models and targets on aerial survey data.</p></li>
<li><p>Energy regulators should apply strong monetary penalties for non-compliance in a consistent and timely manner.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Methane intensity allows various stakeholders to recognize, quantify and base decision-making on important comparisons and trends. It will be a key metric in the global transition to net-zero that will make or break producer competitiveness and, if accurately measured and reported, help governments effectively determine emissions reduction progress and priorities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218976/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Bryant is affiliated with the Pembina Institute. The research for this article was undertaken while she was employed by St. Francis Xavier University. </span></em></p>Any efforts to tackle methane emissions must first begin with measuring the intensity of those emissions.Amanda Bryant, Adjunct Assistant Professor, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145142023-12-21T16:16:30Z2023-12-21T16:16:30ZVaccinating livestock against common diseases is a form of direct climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566576/original/file-20231219-19-ke5un.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=643%2C11%2C2724%2C2109&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/veterinarian-protective-rubber-gloves-inoculates-cow-2324670827">PERO studio/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Animal diseases have a devastating impact on livestock production. In 2022, for example, <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influenza-outbreaks-in-animals-pose-risk-to-humans">131 million</a> domestic poultry died or were culled as a result of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/index.htm#:%7E:text=Avian%20influenza%20or%20bird%20flu,other%20bird%20and%20animal%20species.">avian influenza</a> (also called “bird flu”).</p>
<p>Yet the cost of livestock disease goes beyond a shortage of turkeys for the holiday season. Every animal that is lost to a preventable disease is also associated with greenhouse gas emissions that the planet cannot afford.</p>
<p>Animal diseases reduce the productivity of a farm. This is because livestock grow at a slower pace, are unable to reach target weights or fail to reproduce. Diseases may also drastically increase the rate at which livestock die. </p>
<p>Diseases with high mortality levels, such as <a href="https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/articles/classical-swine-fever#:%7E:text=Classical%20Swine%20Fever%20is%20a,no%20impact%20on%20human%20health.">classical swine fever</a> or avian influenza, mean farmers need to use more resources and raise additional animals to maintain food production. This will cause the generation of more greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uk-urgently-needs-to-cut-its-methane-emissions-by-2030-cows-and-sheep-hold-the-key-to-success-185621">The UK urgently needs to cut its methane emissions by 2030: cows and sheep hold the key to success</a>
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<p>However, controlling common animal diseases effectively through tools like vaccination proves to be a sustainable way of tackling climate change. According to <a href="https://onehealthoutlook.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s42522-023-00089-y">new research</a> that was carried out by one of us (Jude Capper), controlling <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/influenza-a-virus-subtypes.htm">“high pathogenicity” avian influenza</a> – a virus that can cause severe disease and death in infected poultry – with vaccines would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by almost 16% per kilogram of meat without having to resort to culling.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A vet removing the carcasses of chickens on a farm that have died from bird flu." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566579/original/file-20231219-23-1jike7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566579/original/file-20231219-23-1jike7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566579/original/file-20231219-23-1jike7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566579/original/file-20231219-23-1jike7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566579/original/file-20231219-23-1jike7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566579/original/file-20231219-23-1jike7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566579/original/file-20231219-23-1jike7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bird flu caused the death of 131 million domestic poultry in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/veterinarian-takes-carcasses-chickens-on-farm-2153618663">Pordee_Aomboon/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reducing emissions</h2>
<p>Using vaccines to prevent disease also supports better food security and livelihoods. <a href="https://www.msdvetmanual.com/generalized-conditions/porcine-reproductive-and-respiratory-syndrome/porcine-reproductive-and-respiratory-syndrome">Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome</a> is endemic in countries including the US, China and Vietnam. The virus does not always kill infected pigs, but it limits output from swine farms as it affects reproduction and growth. In affected herds, up to 19% of sows fail to produce piglets and 75% of young pigs die before weaning.</p>
<p>Every 100,000 sows spared from porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome would prevent more than 420,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions. This is equivalent to removing more than 230,000 cars from the road, and means greenhouse gas emissions per kilogram of pork would fall by 22.5%. </p>
<p>Similarly, eliminating <a href="https://www.woah.org/en/disease/foot-and-mouth-disease/#:%7E:text=FMD%20is%20characterised%20by%20fever,leaves%20them%20weakened%20and%20debilitated.">foot and mouth disease</a> where it is endemic (many low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia) would cut emissions by more than 10% per kilogram of product. Foot and mouth disease is highly contagious and led to a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35581830">crisis</a> for UK agriculture when it hit in 2001. The disease is a major cause of reduced production around the globe, despite not always killing livestock.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Traffic on a motorway surrounded by heavy smog." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566584/original/file-20231219-15-d54tpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566584/original/file-20231219-15-d54tpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566584/original/file-20231219-15-d54tpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566584/original/file-20231219-15-d54tpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566584/original/file-20231219-15-d54tpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566584/original/file-20231219-15-d54tpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566584/original/file-20231219-15-d54tpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vaccinating 100,000 sows against porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome could reduce emissions by an amount comparable to that produced by 230,000 cars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beijing-china-december-25-2015-traffic-355127348">testing/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Controlling outbreaks</h2>
<p>More than <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X15002703">80% of farms</a> in low-income countries are smallholder or backyard operations. This type of farm generates more greenhouse gas emissions per unit of meat, milk and eggs than commercial farms because of lower productivity. </p>
<p>Farms in these countries are reservoirs of disease. This means the threat of a global outbreak – and the associated implications for greenhouse gas emissions – is never zero. These reservoirs occur because of a lack of disease surveillance, infrastructure, trained personnel and available medicines to detect, record and control livestock diseases.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, controlling endemic livestock diseases through vaccination reduces the risk of outbreaks across species and regional borders. By controlling <a href="https://www.woah.org/en/disease/avian-infectious-bronchitis/">avian bronchitis</a> (a highly contagious respiratory disease mainly in chickens) where it is endemic among backyard poultry, we can reduce emissions by more than 11% while also limiting the risk of an outbreak. </p>
<p>Outbreaks can undermine global trade, production and food security. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-0057-2">Economic analysis</a> of an <a href="https://www.woah.org/en/disease/african-swine-fever/">African swine fever</a> outbreak in China found that low pork supply would increase global pork prices by between 17% and 85%. The findings also suggest that unmet demand would have significant consequences for the affordability of other meats.</p>
<p>Vaccination also helps to address the threat of antimicrobial resistance, which poses a major threat to human health around the world. Research estimates that antimicrobial resistance was associated with <a href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140673621027240">around 5 million deaths</a> globally in 2019.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Free range chicken on a poultry farm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566582/original/file-20231219-17-zf7ff9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566582/original/file-20231219-17-zf7ff9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566582/original/file-20231219-17-zf7ff9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566582/original/file-20231219-17-zf7ff9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566582/original/file-20231219-17-zf7ff9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566582/original/file-20231219-17-zf7ff9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566582/original/file-20231219-17-zf7ff9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most farms in low-income countries are smallholder or backyard operations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/free-range-chicken-on-traditional-poultry-527302717">goodbishop/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Moving towards sustainability</h2>
<p>Our food system is responsible for <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00225-9">one-third</a> of global greenhouse gas emissions. Improving animal health would thus make a significant contribution to meeting the IPCC’s challenge of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">halving emissions</a> by 2030.</p>
<p>At the same time, it would minimise the broader environmental impact of farming through <a href="https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cc0431en/">efficiency gains</a>. This is particularly crucial in low-income countries where the inability to control or treat livestock diseases has greater consequences for malnutrition, poverty and human health.</p>
<p>Sustainable food production balances three components: environmental responsibility, economic viability and social acceptability. Using vaccines to reduce livestock disease around the globe is one of the few innovations that improves all three – benefiting animals, people and the planet.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214514/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>In the past, Jude Capper has consulted to MSD Animal Health, Elanco Animal Health and Zoetis Inc; and has also consulted to the British Cattle Veterinary Association. Professor Capper's research cited within this article was funded by HealthforAnimals. She is the Treasurer for the National Beef Association in the UK.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Barrett is a veterinary surgeon working for Bristol Veterinary School, University of Bristol, as Professor of Bovine Medicine, Production and Reproduction. He has received funding from industry, charity and research council funding bodies throughout his career. He is also a Past-President of the British Cattle Veterinary Association and the European College of Bovine Health Management. </span></em></p>Vaccinating livestock against common disease not only improves animal welfare, it’s good for the planet too.Jude Capper, Professor of Sustainable Beef and Sheep Production, Harper Adams UniversityDavid Barrett, Professor of Bovine Medicine, Production and Reproduction, University of BristolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2160542023-12-08T16:37:45Z2023-12-08T16:37:45ZFrozen methane under the seabed is thawing as oceans warm – and things are worse than we thought<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564513/original/file-20231208-19-zu7c7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5325%2C3547&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/air-bubbles-underwater-background-diving-sea-2317314399">Kichigin / shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Buried beneath the oceans surrounding continents is a naturally occurring frozen form of methane and water. Sometimes dubbed “fire-ice” as you can literally set light to it, marine methane hydrate can melt as the climate warms, uncontrollably releasing methane – a potent greenhouse gas – into the ocean and possibly the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Colleagues and I have just published <a href="https://rdcu.be/dsTTt">research</a> showing more of this methane hydrate is vulnerable to warming than previously thought. This is a worry as that hydrate contains about as much carbon as all of the remaining oil and gas on Earth. </p>
<p>Releasing it from the seabed could cause the oceans to become more acidic and the climate to warm further. This is a dangerous set of circumstances. </p>
<p>The massive venting of methane from similar ancient marine hydrate reservoirs has been linked to some of the severest and most rapid climate changes in the Earth’s history. There is even evidence that the process has started again near the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11528">east coast of the US</a>. </p>
<p>I have worked on hydrates for over a decade, mainly looking at the methane hydrate offshore of Mauritania, West Africa. Recently I have taken 3D seismic data intended to reveal oil and gas and repurposed it to map out the hydrates under the ocean floor. Ultimately, I wanted to work out if climate change is causing methane to bubble to the surface. </p>
<p>3D seismic is the geologist’s equivalent of the doctor’s CT scan. It can cover hundreds of square kilometres, and can reveal hydrates a few kilometres below the seabed. Hydrate is easily identified in these giant surveys because the sound waves created by a source of seismic energy towed by a ship reflect off the bottom of the hydrate layers. </p>
<h2>Looking for methane using 3D seismic imagery</h2>
<p>As I settled into a new way of life during the first COVID lockdown in early 2020, I reopened the much-studied dataset and started mapping again. I knew there were many examples of hydrate that had thawed as a result of warming since the last glacial period peaked some 20,000 years ago, and I knew we could detect this on the 3D datasets. </p>
<p>But what was the fate of the methane? Did it reach the oceans and atmosphere? Because if it did, this is a major clue that it could happen again.</p>
<p>Around continents, where the oceans are relatively shallow, hydrate is only just cold enough to remain frozen. So it is very vulnerable to any warming, and that is why these areas have been the focus of most scientific investigations. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564518/original/file-20231208-19-eq32kq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World map with shaded areas near the coasts" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564518/original/file-20231208-19-eq32kq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564518/original/file-20231208-19-eq32kq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564518/original/file-20231208-19-eq32kq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564518/original/file-20231208-19-eq32kq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564518/original/file-20231208-19-eq32kq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564518/original/file-20231208-19-eq32kq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564518/original/file-20231208-19-eq32kq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where known methane hydrates can be found.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Estimated-methane-hydrate-occurrences-in-the-world-This-map-is-taken-from-the-World_fig2_277009736">World Ocean Review (data: Wallmann et al)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The good news is that only 3.5% of the world’s hydrate resides in the vulnerable zone, in this precarious state. Most hydrate is instead deemed to be “safe”, buried hundreds of metres below the seabed in deeper waters tens of kilometres further from land.</p>
<p>But frozen methane in the deep ocean may vulnerable after all. In oceans and seas where the water is deeper than around 450 metres to 700 metres are layer upon layer of sediment that contains the hydrate. And some of it is deeply buried and warmed geothermally by the Earth so, despite being hundreds of metres below the seafloor, it is right at the point of instability. </p>
<p>Some layers of sediment are permeable and create a complex underground plumbing for the gas to move through if it’s liberated during climatic warming. Just like holding a football underwater methane gas wants to push upwards because of its buoyancy and burst through the 100s of metres of sediment layers. </p>
<p>Imposed upon this complex geology has been the seven glacials (or ice ages) and interglacials, which warmed and cooled the system repeatedly over the last million years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564031/original/file-20231206-32134-khhda0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Diagram cross section of sea bed showing rock strata, and map of craters." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564031/original/file-20231206-32134-khhda0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564031/original/file-20231206-32134-khhda0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564031/original/file-20231206-32134-khhda0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564031/original/file-20231206-32134-khhda0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564031/original/file-20231206-32134-khhda0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564031/original/file-20231206-32134-khhda0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564031/original/file-20231206-32134-khhda0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Example of the sort of seismic images the author used. Left: reflections that represent sedimentary strata and a vertical pipe where methane has pushed upwards and a buried crater that formed as methane vented into the ancient ocean. Right: a map showing other examples of these craters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Davies</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Methane is migrating</h2>
<p>During this first lockdown of 2020 I found spectacular evidence that during warm periods during the last million or so years methane migrated laterally, upwards and landwards toward Africa and leaked in much shallower water. Beneath a layer of up to 80 metres of sediment are 23 giant craters on the ancient seabed, each one kilometre wide and up to 50 metres deep, big enough to be filled with multiple Wembley stadiums. </p>
<p>The seismic imaging provides the tell tale signs of methane immediately below the craters. And similar craters elsewhere form due to prolonged or explosive release of gas at the seabed. </p>
<p>These craters are not located in the vulnerable zone where all the attention has been – they are landward of it at about 330 metres water depth. With the discovery in hand, I gathered an international team of scientists (modellers, physicists, geoscientists) to work out what caused the formation of these remarkable things and when they formed. Our results are now published in <a href="https://rdcu.be/dsTTt">Nature Geoscience</a>.</p>
<p>We believe they formed as a result of repeated warming periods. These periods impacted hydrate in the deep ocean and the released methane migrated up to 40km towards the continent, to be vented beyond the shallowest hydrate deposits. So during a warming world the volume of hydrate that will be vulnerable to leaking methane is more significant than previously thought. </p>
<p>The positive outlook is that there are many natural barriers to this methane. But be warned, we expect that in some places on earth, as we warm the planet, methane from the deep will escape into our oceans.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Funding provided by NERC (NE/W00996X/1)</span></em></p>Undersea ‘fire-ice’ is vulnerable to leaking greenhouse gas, finds new study.Richard Davies, Pro-Vice Chancellor: Global and Sustainability, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2173552023-12-06T21:59:33Z2023-12-06T21:59:33ZCarbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/carbon-removal-is-needed-to-achieve-net-zero-but-has-its-own-climate-risks" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As delegates gather in Dubai <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/un-climate-change-conference-united-arab-emirates-nov/dec-2023/about-cop-28#:%7E:text=COP%2028%20is%20an%20opportunity,is%20already%20happening%20and%20ultimately">at the COP28 climate conference</a> — with the aim to ratchet up ambition towards meeting the goals of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> — a key component of these efforts are <a href="https://zerotracker.net/">countries’ pledges</a> to achieve net-zero emissions around mid-century. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf">Net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions</a> refers to a balance between CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere and CO₂ removals from the atmosphere, such that the net effect on CO₂ levels in the atmosphere is zero. It is often assumed that if such a balance is achieved, the net effect on climate would also be zero. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-climate-summit-just-approved-a-loss-and-damage-fund-what-does-this-mean-218999">COP28 climate summit just approved a 'loss and damage' fund. What does this mean?</a>
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<p>However, in a recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01862-7">paper in <em>Nature Climate Change</em></a>, we show that unless we consider a number of other factors — such as permanence of carbon stored in vegetation and soils, changes in the reflectivity of landscapes and the full suite of greenhouse gases emitted — balancing CO₂ emissions with removals will not achieve the intended climate goal.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf">Carbon dioxide removal</a> (CDR) refers to human activities that deliberately remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere. CDR can leverage either natural or technological systems, though in either case, it must be additional to the CO₂ removal that is driven by passive <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/carbon-sources-and-sinks/">carbon sinks</a> already at work, such as existing forests. </p>
<p><a href="https://cdrprimer.org/read/chapter-2">Examples of CDR</a> include planting trees on previously deforested or unforested lands, producing bio-energy and capturing and storing the emitted carbon, fertilizing the ocean to stimulate biological production and capturing CO₂ directly from the air through chemical and technological means.</p>
<h2>What are the potential problems?</h2>
<p>For CDR to balance the climate effects of CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel burning, it needs to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41242-5">result in permanent carbon storage</a>, meaning that the carbon must remain undisturbed for centuries to millennia. However, carbon stored in trees is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz7005">vulnerable to natural disturbances</a> such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41854-x">droughts</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27225-4">wildfires</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06777">insect outbreaks</a> and other <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12558">biotic disturbances</a> and could be re-released much sooner. </p>
<p>Carbon sequestered and stored in <a href="https://ecoevocommunity.nature.com/posts/31382-marine-heat-wave-impacts-world-s-largest-seagrass-carbon-stores">seagrass meadows</a> or mangrove forests, for example, is re-released following marine heat waves. Any reversals in land-use and management decisions can also affect the permanence of carbon stored by CDR. </p>
<p>Several CDR approaches, when deployed at a large-scale, affect fluxes of energy and water at the Earth’s surface, resulting in so-called <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2022.756115/full?mc_cid=84ae26d1c7&mc_eid=8249944246">“biogeophysical” effects</a> on climate that are in addition to the effects of CO₂ sequestration. </p>
<p>For example, large-scale planting of trees in agricultural areas or grasslands results in a reduction of how well the land surface is able to reflect sunlight, and therefore leading to a <a href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/629/2023/">warming effect</a>. This effect is particularly strong in regions with seasonal snow cover, where the darker colour of trees reduces the high reflectivity of snow. </p>
<p>Deployment of a range of CDR methods can also result in increased emissions of nitrous oxide and methane, two powerful greenhouse gases. For instance, bio-energy with carbon capture and storage and reforestation require the use of nitrogen fertilizers, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2018.11.033">enhances nitrous oxide emissions</a>. </p>
<p>Restoration of coastal ecosystems, such as seagrass meadows or mangrove forests, can also result in an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64094-1">increase in methane and nitrous oxide emissions</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/geoengineering-sounds-like-a-quick-climate-fix-but-without-more-research-and-guardrails-its-a-costly-gamble-with-potentially-harmful-results-211705">Geoengineering sounds like a quick climate fix, but without more research and guardrails, it's a costly gamble − with potentially harmful results</a>
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<p>Because of the potential impermanence of carbon stored by CDR, and biogeophysical and other greenhouse gas effects, balancing emissions of CO₂ with CDR might not always result in the intended climate outcome. </p>
<p>For example, balancing fossil-fuel emissions with CO₂ removal through large-scale reforestation can result in a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01862-7">higher global warming</a> compared to a case where the fossil fuel emissions are eliminated. This asymmetry could lead to exceeding temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement.</p>
<h2>What to do about it?</h2>
<p>For the reasons above, greenhouse gas accounting, and policies designed to offset greenhouse gas emissions, need to consider the full suite of climate effects of the proposed CDR to ensure intended climate goals are not compromised.</p>
<p>CDR approaches with short carbon storage time scales, or at high risk of natural and/or anthropogenic disturbance (like in fire-prone regions), should not be used to balance fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions. </p>
<p>For carbon removal that targets carbon stores at lower risks of disturbance, it is crucial that net-zero protocols also require an excess amount of CDR as an insurance in the event of carbon losses. </p>
<p>Similarly, CDR approaches that result in biogeophysical effects or release gases such as methane and nitrous oxide upon deployment risk fully negating the climate benefit of carbon sequestration and should be excluded as a means of balancing fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions. </p>
<p>In cases where biogeophysical effects or the release of GHGs partly counter the climate benefit of carbon sequestration, an additional amount of CDR is also required to compensate these effects. The measures used to establish equivalency between CO₂ emissions and removals, and biogeophysical and GHG effects, need to be rigorous and grounded in science. </p>
<h2>Emissions reductions remain primary</h2>
<p>Nature-based climate solutions that are not suitable for balancing fossil-fuel emissions because of a high risk of carbon losses — and/or large biophysical or GHG effects — may still be appropriate to deploy <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.2019.0120">because of benefits</a> other than climate change mitigation. That includes preserving or restoring biodiversity and increasing the resilience of landscapes. </p>
<p>If deployed in addition rather than as an alternative to fossil-fuel emission reductions, these <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00391-z">solutions can still have climate benefits, even if relatively temporary</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-7-policies-could-help-save-a-billion-lives-by-2100-212953">COP28: How 7 policies could help save a billion lives by 2100</a>
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<p>Carbon dioxide removal <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">will be needed</a> to balance emissions that are difficult to eliminate and increase the odds of meeting the Paris Agreement climate goal. </p>
<p>However, while CDR can play a crucial role in climate change mitigation, the current uncertainty around its full effects underscores the need to prioritize reducing emissions as rapidly and as much as possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217355/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsten Zickfeld receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Environment and Climate Change Canada's Climate Action and Awareness Fund and Microsoft.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program.</span></em></p>Carbon capture and sequestration can play a role in limiting warming but the nuances of its application are far more complicated than just planting trees. Getting it wrong could make warming worse.Kirsten Zickfeld, Distinguished Professor of Climate Science, Simon Fraser UniversityPep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2184142023-12-02T09:16:18Z2023-12-02T09:16:18Z7 food and agriculture innovations needed to protect the climate and feed a rapidly growing world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562358/original/file-20231129-21-s1jmd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2048%2C1364&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Managing methane from belching cattle is a top innovation priority.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/48685288911">Lance Cheung/USDA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the first time ever, food and agriculture took center stage at the annual United Nations climate conference in 2023. <a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/food-and-agriculture">More than 150 countries</a> signed <a href="https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-15436-2023-INIT/en/pdf">a declaration, committing</a> to make their food systems – everything from production to consumption – a focal point in national strategies to address climate change.</p>
<p>While the declaration is thin on concrete actions to adapt to climate change and reduce emissions, it draws attention to a crucial issue.</p>
<p>The global food supply is increasingly facing disruptions from extreme heat and storms. It is also a major contributor to climate change, responsible for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00225-9">one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions</a> from human activities. This tension is why agriculture innovation is increasingly being elevated in international climate discussions.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Women farmers work as rain falls from a storm cloud." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562368/original/file-20231129-17-5px7h6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Farmers work in a field during monsoon rains in Madhya Pradesh, India.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tataimitra/9421742217">Rajarshi Mitra via Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>At present, agriculture provides enough food for the world’s 8 billion people, although many do not have adequate access. But to feed a global population of 10 billion in 2050, croplands would need to expand by <a href="https://research.wri.org/sites/default/files/2019-07/D_REP_Food_Course2_web.pdf">660,000 to 1.2 million square miles</a> (171 million to 301 million hectare) relative to 2010. That would <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-great-amazon-land-grab-how-brazils-government-is-clearing-the-way-for-deforestation-173416">lead to more deforestation</a>, which contributes to climate change. Further, some practices widely relied on to produce sufficient food, such as using <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12518-023-00511-0">synthetic fertilizers</a>, also contribute to climate change.</p>
<p>Simply eliminating deforestation and these practices without alternative solutions would decrease the world’s food supply and farmers’ incomes. Fortunately, innovations are emerging that can help.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/">report released Dec. 2</a>, the <a href="https://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/">Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture</a>, founded by Nobel-winning economist <a href="https://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/team/">Michael Kremer</a>, identifies seven priority areas for innovation that can help ensure sufficient food production, minimize greenhouse gas emissions and be scaled up to reach hundreds of millions of people.</p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://keough.nd.edu/people/paul-winters/">agriculture economist</a> and executive director for the commission. Three innovations in particular stand out for their ability to scale up quickly and pay off economically.</p>
<h2>Accurate, accessible weather forecasts</h2>
<p>With extreme weather leaving crops increasingly vulnerable and farmers struggling to adapt, accurate weather forecasts are crucial. Farmers need to know what to expect, both in the days ahead and farther out, to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw080">make strategic decisions</a> about planting, irrigating, fertilizing and harvesting.</p>
<p>Yet access to accurate, detailed forecasts is <a href="https://doi.org/10.3386/w25894">rare for farmers</a> in many low- and middle-income countries.</p>
<p>Our assessment shows that investing in technology to collect data and make forecasts widely available – such as by radio, text message or WhatsApp – can pay off many times over for economies.</p>
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<img alt="A man stands in a rice field in Mozambique after a storm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562475/original/file-20231129-23-p7hdej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Forecasts by text message can help farmers prepare for extreme weather and time their planting and harvesting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/xavier-paulino-tapera-a-subsistence-farmer-surveys-his-rice-news-photo/1132140855?adppopup=true">Wikus de Wet/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>For example, accurate state-level forecasts of seasonal monsoon rainfall totals would help Indian farmers optimize sowing and planting times, providing an estimated <a href="https://doi.org/10.3386/w25894">US$3 billion in benefits</a> over five years – at a cost of around $5 million.</p>
<p>If farmers in Benin received accurate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.106178">forecasts by text message</a>, we estimate that they could save each farmer $110 to $356 per year, a large amount in that country.</p>
<p>More sharing of information among neighboring countries, using platforms like the World Meteorological Organization’s <a href="https://wmo.int/site/global-framework-climate-services-gfcs">Climate Services Information System</a>, could also improve forecasts.</p>
<h2>Microbial fertilizers</h2>
<p>Another innovation priority involves expanding the use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-restore-our-soils-feed-the-microbes-79616">microbial fertilizers</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/fertilizer-prices-are-soaring-and-thats-an-opportunity-to-promote-more-sustainable-ways-of-growing-crops-183418">Nitrogen fertilizer</a> is widely used to increase crop yields, but it is typically made from natural gas and is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18773-w">major source of greenhouse gas emissions</a>. Microbial fertilizers use bacteria to help plants and soil absorb the nutrients they need, thereby <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/farmers-test-microbes-nourish-crops-climate-pressure-grows-costs-rise-2022-02-03/">reducing the amount of nitrogen fertilizer needed</a>.</p>
<p>Studies have <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2017.02204">found that microbial fertilizers could increase legume yields</a> by 10% to 30% in healthy soil and generate billions of dollars in benefits. Other microbial fertilizers work with corn, and scientists are working on more advancements.</p>
<p>Soybean farmers in Brazil have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s42770-021-00618-9">using a rhizobia-based microbial fertilizer</a> for decades to improve their yields and cut synthetic fertilizer costs. But this technique is not as widely known elsewhere. Scaling it up will require funding to expand testing to more countries, but it has great potential payoff for farmers, soil health and the climate.</p>
<h2>Reducing methane from livestock</h2>
<p>A third innovation priority is livestock, the source of <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb1922en/cb1922en.pdf">roughly two-thirds</a> of agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions. With demand for beef projected to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/C2014-0-03542-3">rise 80% by 2050</a> as low- and middle-income countries grow wealthier, reducing those emissions is essential.</p>
<p>Several innovative methods for reducing livestock methane emissions target enteric fermentation, which leads to methane belches.</p>
<p>Adding algae, <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cows-a-few-ounces-of-seaweed-daily-could-sharply-reduce-their-contribution-to-climate-change-157192">seaweed</a>, lipids, tannins or certain synthetic compounds to cattle feed can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/AN20295">change the chemical reactions</a> that generate methane during digestion. Studies have found some techniques have the potential to reduce methane emissions by a quarter to nearly 100 percent. When cattle produce less methane, they also waste less energy, which can <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fanim.2021.641590">go into growth</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2020-18908">milk production</a>, providing a boost for farmers.</p>
<p>The method is still expensive, but further development and private investment could help scale it up and lower the cost. </p>
<p>Gene editing, either of livestock or the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-021-01014-7">microorganisms in their stomachs</a>, could also someday hold potential.</p>
<h2>Scaling up agriculture innovation</h2>
<p>The Innovation Commission also identified <a href="http://innovationcommission.uchicago.edu/">four other priorities for innovation</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Helping farmers and communities implement better rainwater harvesting.</p></li>
<li><p>Lowering the cost of <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-ways-ai-can-help-farmers-tackle-the-challenges-of-modern-agriculture-213210">digital agriculture</a> that can help farmers use irrigation, fertilizer and pesticides most efficiently.</p></li>
<li><p>Encouraging production of alternative proteins to reduce demand for livestock.</p></li>
<li><p>Providing insurance and other social protections to help farmers recover from extreme weather events.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>While promising agricultural innovations exist, commercial incentives to develop and scale them up have fallen short, leading to underinvestment, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man flies drones to spread fertilizer on a field in Kenya." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562476/original/file-20231129-28-dk66ce.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Providing farmers with information and technology that can increase their resource efficiency are common themes in agriculture innovation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/kenya-airways-employee-controls-an-unmanned-aerial-vehicle-news-photo/1244138316">Patrick Meinhardt/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>However, innovation funding <a href="https://fastercapital.com/content/Investing-in-the-Future--Why-Social-Innovation-Startups-Are-Attracting-Funding.html">has a track record</a> of generating very high social rates of return. This creates an opportunity for public and philanthropic investment in developing and deploying innovations at a scale to reach hundreds of millions of people. Of course, to be effective, any potential innovation must be consistent with – and driven by – national strategies and planned in conjunction with the government, the private sector and civil society.</p>
<p>Two decades ago, global leaders, frustrated that lifesaving vaccines were not reaching hundreds of millions of people who needed them, <a href="https://www.who.int/europe/about-us/partnerships/partners/global-health-partnerships/gavi-alliance">created Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance</a>. They invested billions of dollars to scale up these innovations, helped to immunize over 1 billion children and halved child mortality in 78 lower-income countries.</p>
<p>This year, officials at COP28 are aiming for a similar global response to climate change, food security and agriculture.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published Dec. 2, has been updated with the declaration’s signatory count as of Dec. 12.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Winters receives funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for the work on the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture. He is Executive Director of the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture based out of the Development Innovation Lab at the University of Chicago. He also is providing unpaid technical support to the COP28 Presidency Food System Initiative around the Innovation Pillar.</span></em></p>Food systems are increasingly disrupted by climate disasters, while also being a major contributor to climate change. World leaders at COP28 vowed to do something about it.Paul Winters, Professor of Global Affairs, University of Notre DameLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2188692023-11-30T13:01:59Z2023-11-30T13:01:59ZCOP28 begins: 4 issues that will determine if the UN climate summit is a success, from methane to money<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562572/original/file-20231130-19-3srly6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C4584%2C3033&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The COP28 climate conference runs from Nov. 30 to Dec. 2, 2023, in Dubai.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/COP28ClimateSummitGlance/87b2f305408447308432e1ca8363be9d/photo">AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.cop28.com/">United Nations climate conference</a> is underway in Dubai, and representatives from around the world will be confronting an extraordinary array of challenges over its two weeks. They carry with them some long-held – and new – grievances, and strong expectations.</p>
<p>Framing the agenda is a “<a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/global-stocktake">global stocktake</a>” – an assessment of progress toward the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep global warming in check. Unsurprisingly, as record-breaking extreme heat has underscored so powerfully in 2023, <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023">the world is not on track</a>.</p>
<p>To cut emissions, progress is needed on national economic and fiscal policies, such as taxing pollution and ending subsidies for fossil fuels that are <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/08/22/IMF-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Data-2023-Update-537281">even higher today than before the pandemic</a>, and on funds and commitments to speed a global energy and economic transformation. Funding for adaptation and disaster recovery is also high on the agenda.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A chart shows current trajectories leveling off but still far from the goals, which require a drop in emissions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562550/original/file-20231129-17-yw43fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562550/original/file-20231129-17-yw43fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562550/original/file-20231129-17-yw43fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562550/original/file-20231129-17-yw43fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=652&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562550/original/file-20231129-17-yw43fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562550/original/file-20231129-17-yw43fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562550/original/file-20231129-17-yw43fw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=820&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The United Nations’ 2023 Emissions Gap Report shows current national plans would produce levels of greenhouse gas emissions far above the trajectories for keeping global warming under 2 degrees Celsius compared to preindustrial times. NDCs, or Nationally Determined Contributions, are countries’ pledges to reduce emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023">UN Environment Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is an undercurrent of deep skepticism in some quarters about the leadership of this year’s COP28 president, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, who also heads the United Arab Emirates’ national oil company. <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uae-cop28-climate-oil-gas-deal-leak-sultan-ahmed-al-jaber/">Recent news reports suggest</a> the UAE may have muddled its roles by seeking oil and gas deals with countries while at the same time presiding over negotiations of when – not if – to phase out fossil fuel emissions. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/29/climate/cop28-al-jaber-adnoc-oil-deals-denial-climate-intl/index.html">Al-Jaber has denied</a> the allegation.</p>
<p>I have been involved in climate negotiations for several years as <a href="https://vcmintegrity.org/team-member/rachel-kyte/">a former senior U.N. official</a>. Here are four issues I’m watching that will indicate whether COP28 makes material progress.</p>
<h2>Stopping methane emissions</h2>
<p>In 2021, 149 countries signed the <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/content/global-methane-pledge">Global Methane Pledge</a>, with a vow to cut methane emissions 30% by 2030. Now, the world needs to see action, from everyone.</p>
<p>Durwood Zaelke, a veteran of multilateral environment negotiations, describes methane as global warming’s “blow torch.” The greenhouse gas – and primary ingredient in natural gas – traps about <a href="https://earth.stanford.edu/news/methane-and-climate-change">80 times more heat</a> than carbon dioxide over the short term. But since it only lasts about a decade in the atmosphere, stopping methane emissions can have an immediate impact on global warming.</p>
<p>There is reason to expect progress on methane at COP28. <a href="https://www.state.gov/sunnylands-statement-on-enhancing-cooperation-to-address-the-climate-crisis/">Chinese and U.S.</a> officials announced in November that they would host a methane summit during the conference. And all eyes are on the UAE to see if it can flex its diplomatic muscles and bring remaining oil- and gas-producing countries – such as Turkmenistan, Iraq and Iran – to the table along with national oil and gas companies across the world.</p>
<p><iframe id="tM5PF" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tM5PF/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Human activities account for <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/methane-tracker-2021/methane-and-climate-change">about 60% of global methane emissions</a>, with about a third of that coming from leaking fossil fuel equipment, gas flaring and abandoned oil and gas wells and coal mines, and another third from agriculture. This year, for the first time, agriculture’s role in climate change is a key focus of the conference. But fossil fuels are the best target for cutting methane emissions quickly. </p>
<p>The International Energy Agency estimates methane emissions from fossil fuels will have to <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/curtailing-methane-emissions-from-fossil-fuel-operations/executive-summary">fall 75% this decade</a> for the world to stay within the internationally agreed limits of the Paris climate agreement.</p>
<p>The pressure is on the UAE to broaden the industry’s commitments to stop the leaks, to ensure that industry players make substantial financial contributions to fund technical help in developing countries, and to turn pledges into the foundation of a binding international agreement to zero out methane emissions.</p>
<h2>Paying for loss and damage</h2>
<p>During the 2022 climate conference, nations agreed to establish an international <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-the-fight-over-the-loss-and-damage-fund-for-climate-change/">Loss and Damage Fund</a> to channel financial support to vulnerable and low-income countries that are facing compounding climate disasters, despite having done little to cause the climate crisis.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/TC5_4_Cochairs%20draft%20text_Rev2.pdf">proposal for how to design that fund</a> is now with negotiators at COP28 for adoption, and <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/11/07/world-bank-to-initially-host-loss-and-damage-fund-under-draft-deal/">no one is entirely happy</a> with it.</p>
<p>The proposal has a broad definition of who would be allowed to draw from the fund, describing recipients as “developing countries that are particularly vulnerable.” Countries that were <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/parties-non-party-stakeholders/parties-convention-and-observer-states">formally considered “developed”</a> when climate negotiations began in the 1990s would be “urged” to pay into the fund, while other now-wealthy nations would be “encouraged” to contribute. </p>
<p>The proposal also names the World Bank as the trustee for the fund’s first four years, a choice that <a href="https://climatechangenews.com/2023/10/20/world-bank-controversy-sends-loss-and-damage-talks-into-overtime/">some developing nations argued</a> puts too much power in the hands of wealthy nations.</p>
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<img alt="Two women wash clothes in a bucket in the year as they clean up from the storm's damage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562573/original/file-20231130-27-jmhih6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562573/original/file-20231130-27-jmhih6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562573/original/file-20231130-27-jmhih6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562573/original/file-20231130-27-jmhih6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562573/original/file-20231130-27-jmhih6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562573/original/file-20231130-27-jmhih6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562573/original/file-20231130-27-jmhih6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Cyclone Freddy, one of the longest-lived cyclones on record in the Indian Ocean, caused widespread damage in Mozambique in 2023. The country has been hit hard by several destructive storms in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PicturesoftheWeekGlobalPhotoGallery/438d334f92934162a7995aa9a4adf3b4/photo">AP Photo/Thoko Chikondi</a></span>
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<p>The Loss and Damage Fund is just one stream of financing for developing countries. The conference needs to make progress on funding adaptation more generally, as well as driving investment in mitigation.</p>
<h2>Restoring integrity in carbon markets</h2>
<p>There has been growing interest in the potential of voluntary carbon markets – now <a href="https://rmi.org/a-path-through-carbon-markets-turmoil/">worth about US$2 billion</a> – to fund mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. </p>
<p>Voluntary carbon markets allow companies to invest in projects such as protecting forests or installing renewable energy and then count the expected emissions avoided as a drop in their own emissions. But these markets have come under fire as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe">investigative reporting</a> showed that many forest projects <a href="https://www.vox.com/23817575/carbon-offsets-credits-financialization-ecologi-solutions-scam">couldn’t deliver carbon credits</a> as promised and the companies that bought the credits weren’t cutting their emissions.</p>
<p>Many groups are working to fix the problems, in particular by <a href="https://icvcm.org/">establishing principles</a> and a <a href="https://vcmintegrity.org/new-vcmi-guidance-opens-door-for-corporate-carbon-credit-claims/">code of practices</a> for “high-integrity” markets. Under these voluntary rules, companies would commit to develop their own plans to transition to net-zero emissions and only use projects to offset the residual emissions they cannot reduce on their own.</p>
<p>The UAE is keen to show how voluntary carbon markets can get more finance flowing to developing countries. At the same time, however, no oil and gas company has a credible pathway to net-zero emissions, so there will be intense scrutiny of the quality of any announcements.</p>
<h2>Finding innovative ways to finance everything</h2>
<p>Several proposals are being floated to help fund projects and recovery funds related to climate change.</p>
<p>One is to charge fees for “overconsumption” that drives greenhouse gas emissions, or international <a href="https://cic.nyu.edu/resources/solidarity-taxes-in-the-context-of-economic-recovery-following-the-covid-19-pandemic/">solidarity taxes</a>. For example, French President Emmanuel <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-interview/20230623-live-watch-our-exclusive-interview-with-france-s-macron-on-climate-solidarity">Macron has signaled a willingness to explore international fees</a> on business class air travel, international financial transactions, bunker fuels in shipping, and excess or windfall profits from fossil fuel companies. While supported by Kenya, Barbados and others, this potential new stream of financing has yet to be embraced by the U.S. or other advanced economies.</p>
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<img alt="Kerry, in western business suit, rides in a golf cart outside the COP28 conference center with two men, both in traditional regional dress." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562574/original/file-20231130-23-vm8zvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562574/original/file-20231130-23-vm8zvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562574/original/file-20231130-23-vm8zvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562574/original/file-20231130-23-vm8zvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562574/original/file-20231130-23-vm8zvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562574/original/file-20231130-23-vm8zvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562574/original/file-20231130-23-vm8zvo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">U.S. Special Presidential Climate Envoy John Kerry arrives in Dubai for the COP28 climate conference. Neither U.S. President Joe Biden nor Chinese President Xi Jinping planned to attend, but the two countries agreed to work together toward progress at COP28.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/COP28ClimateSummit/43d2c404e17c4ba3866d98b21c700941/photo">AP Photo/Peter Dejong</a></span>
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<p>The UAE has worked hard to galvanize the international community to <a href="https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Oct/Tripling-renewable-power-and-doubling-energy-efficiency-by-2030">triple renewable energy capacity</a> and <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-why-deals-at-cop28-to-triple-renewables-and-double-efficiency-are-crucial-for-1-5c/">double energy efficiency by 2030</a>. Look for announcements from the UAE of new investment funds to ramp up renewable energy. </p>
<p>In the last year, there has been an uptick in <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/02/the-blended-way-how-to-mobilize-private-capital-to-fight-climate-change/">efforts to blend</a> philanthropic capital with public development finance and private investment to increase investment. I expect to hear announcements of new investment funds, not just for energy, but also for nature protection and improvements in food systems.</p>
<p>The UAE’s last dash of diplomacy before COP28 focused on securing commitments to big announcements and breaking the impasse between developing countries that need investment and developed countries that haven’t upheld their promises. But the scale of investment needed requires a whole of economy approach this decade. </p>
<p>It is the COP president’s role to get everyone to raise their ambition and act on it without delay. The result will determine whether COP28, beyond splashy announcements, is a win for the world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Kyte serves on the steering committee of the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative. She is a member of an advisory group to the U.N. on reporting and accountability for Net Zero and is a U.N. High Level Champion on Short Lived Climate Pollutants.</span></em></p>A veteran of UN climate talks lays out the top themes and their sticking points, including concerns about the host country’s oil interests.Rachel Kyte, Visiting Professor of Government, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2138742023-11-09T19:10:48Z2023-11-09T19:10:48ZThe unsafe Safeguard Mechanism: how carbon credits could blow up Australia’s main climate policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558538/original/file-20231109-17-ocq6en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C699%2C3642%2C2512&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/person-holding-black-and-silver-lighter-KaFm4vn1RCg">James Adams/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A time bomb is ticking inside the Albanese government’s climate policy. When it explodes, Australia will fall short of its climate targets and leave a gaggle of investors shirtless.</p>
<p>The problem arises from a poorly understood aspect of the net zero transition: carbon credits or offsets. </p>
<p>The centrepiece of Australia’s climate policy is a carbon pricing scheme known as the <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-Safeguard-Mechanism#:%7E:text=The%20Safeguard%20Mechanism%20applies%20to,manufacturing%2C%20transport%2C%20and%20waste.">Safeguard Mechanism</a>. It places caps on the emissions of around 220 of the country’s largest mining, gas and industrial facilities, based on the emissions intensity of their operations. Every year through to 2030 these caps will decline by between 1% and nearly 5%.</p>
<p>The facilities have two ways to keep their emissions within the caps. They can reduce them, or they can buy and surrender one of two forms of credits, the most significant being <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Pages/Forms%20and%20resources/Planning%20a%20project/Part%203/content_australian_carbon_credit_units_accus_.html#:%7E:text=One%20ACCU%20represents%20one%20tonne,accordance%20with%20the%20relevant%20rules.">Australian carbon credit units</a> (ACCUs) issued under Australia’s carbon offset scheme.</p>
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<h2>How the offset scheme works</h2>
<p>Under the scheme, landholders, energy users and other emitters can register projects that avoid emissions or sequester carbon dioxide in trees, soils or geological formations. Those who do so in line with specified rules receive ACCUs, a <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/OSR/ANREU/types-of-emissions-units/australian-carbon-credit-units">tradeable financial instrument</a>.</p>
<p>Each carbon credit unit is supposed to represent additional and permanent abatement of greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to one tonne of CO₂.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-new-dawn-becoming-a-green-superpower-with-a-big-role-in-cutting-global-emissions-216373">Australia's new dawn: becoming a green superpower with a big role in cutting global emissions</a>
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<p>Reducing the emissions of facilities covered by the Safeguard Mechanism is likely to be difficult and expensive, at least in the short term, as most are in the oil and gas, coal and other mining sectors. For some, the only viable way to significantly reduce emissions is to stop production.</p>
<p>Carbon credits enable these facilities to meet their obligations by effectively paying someone else who can cut emissions more cheaply. In theory, allowing facilities with high abatement costs to use offsets lowers the economy-wide cost of reducing greenhouse gases, without sacrificing climate outcomes. </p>
<p>But for the scheme to work, the ACCUs must have “integrity”: they must represent an actual reduction in emissions that would not have otherwise occurred. And to the extent the reduction involves sequestration of CO₂ in a sink (such as a forest), it must stay in the sink permanently.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-money-green-australia-takes-its-first-steps-towards-a-net-zero-finance-strategy-214063">Making money green: Australia takes its first steps towards a net zero finance strategy</a>
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<p>Since the offset scheme started in 2011, <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/project-and-contracts-registers/project-register">137 million ACCUs</a> have been issued. Three-quarters of these have come from three project types: <a href="https://greencollar.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Avoided-Deforestation-QA_.pdf">avoided deforestation in western New South Wales</a>, <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Choosing-a-project-type/Opportunities-for-industry/landfill-and-alternative-waste-treatment-methods/Capture-and-combustion-of-landfill-gas">combustion of methane from landfills</a> (largely to create electricity), and human-induced <a href="https://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Pages/Forms%20and%20resources/Regulatory%20Guidance/Sequestration%20guidance/Human-Induced-Regeneration-projects-and-how-they-affect-the-management-of-land-at-a-property-scale.aspx">regeneration of native forests</a> in arid areas of inland Australia. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.carbonintegrity.au/media-and-publications">research</a> shows that most of these projects have low integrity. People are getting carbon credits for not clearing forests that <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/analysis-finds-300m-paid-to-farmers-to-keep-trees-they-were-unlikely-to-clear-20210920-p58t4u.html">were never going to be cleared anyway</a>, for growing trees that already exist, for growing forests in places that will never sustain them, and for operating electricity generators at landfills that would have operated anyway.</p>
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<h2>Putting net zero in peril</h2>
<p>These projects do serious damage to Australia’s emissions reduction efforts. They enable Safeguard Mechanism facilities to increase their emissions – and governments to approve new fossil fuel projects – on the grounds that carbon credits will provide offsetting reductions elsewhere. But credits with no integrity produce no offsetting reductions. </p>
<p>The flood of low-integrity credits in the ACCU market also artificially lowers the carbon price faced by the Safeguard Mechanism facilities. The lower price causes the facility operators to rely more heavily on offsets and delay onsite emission reduction efforts. It also warps the offset market by making high-integrity offset projects unviable – a form of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law">Gresham’s Law</a>, where bad projects drive out the good.</p>
<p>The situation with Australia’s offset scheme is not unique. Research on <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade3535">other offset schemes</a> has found <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316216473_How_additional_is_the_Clean_Development_Mechanism_Analysis_of_the_application_of_current_tools_and_proposed_alternatives_Study_prepared_for_DG_CLIMA">similar</a> <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15943">integrity problems</a>. That’s because generating high-integrity credits is difficult.</p>
<p>Scheme regulators have a challenging job. Along with having to measure emissions and removals from dispersed and often naturally variable sources and carbon sinks, they must try to screen out phoney emissions reductions offered by project proponents. </p>
<p>The latter have both a huge information advantage over regulators and strong incentives to claim credits for doing what they were already doing or planning to do anyway – such as retaining forests they never intended to clear. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-original-and-still-the-best-why-its-time-to-renew-australias-renewable-energy-policy-213879">The original and still the best: why it's time to renew Australia's renewable energy policy</a>
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<p>But regulators also have an incentive to increase the supply of credits, even if it risks reducing integrity. This is because low credit supply is taken as a sign of scheme failure. </p>
<p>Tight integrity standards reduce credit supply and push up credit prices, which in turn increases compliance costs for polluters and destabilises political support for carbon pricing schemes. Liquid markets built on a healthy supply of credits (regardless of quality) make regulators look good and keep emitters and politicians happy.</p>
<h2>The failings of the Chubb Review</h2>
<p>In 2022, the Albanese government commissioned former chief scientist <a href="https://www.science.org.au/profile/ian-chubb">Ian Chubb</a> to lead a <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/independent-review-accus">review of the ACCU scheme</a>. The review’s report was <a href="https://theconversation.com/chubb-review-of-australias-carbon-credit-scheme-falls-short-and-problems-will-continue-to-fester-197401">confused and contradictory</a>. It dismissed concerns about the scheme’s integrity, even those <a href="https://theconversation.com/untenable-even-companies-profiting-from-australias-carbon-market-say-the-system-must-change-190232">expressed by developers</a> of offset projects. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-urgently-needs-a-climate-plan-and-a-net-zero-national-cabinet-committee-to-implement-it-213866">Why Australia urgently needs a climate plan and a Net Zero National Cabinet Committee to implement it</a>
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<p>Despite not analysing the performance of a single project, the review confidently concluded that the level of abatement credited under the scheme had not been overstated. Its evidence for this was limited to one sentence: “While the Panel was provided with some evidence supporting that position (that integrity problems existed), it was also provided with evidence to the contrary.” It gave no details of what that contrary evidence was.</p>
<p>The panel then recommended substantial changes, including an end to the untenable situation in which the Clean Energy Regulator, the statutory authority charged with implementing legislation to reduce emissions, was responsible for making and administering the scheme rules and then buying most of the credits. The panel also proposed repeal of the avoided deforestation offset.</p>
<p>These changes, while welcome, were carefully designed to leave existing projects untouched. For example, repeal of the avoided deforestation method will not affect 63 existing projects, which will generate credits for years to come. </p>
<p>Conveniently, this will ensure that the supply of ACCUs and their price remain in a politically acceptable range until at least 2030.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/made-in-america-how-bidens-climate-package-is-fuelling-the-global-drive-to-net-zero-214709">Made in America: how Biden's climate package is fuelling the global drive to net zero</a>
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<h2>What the government must do</h2>
<p>Truly fixing the scheme requires the government to stop crediting low-integrity projects and methods. The credit tap must be turned off for all avoided deforestation projects and most human-induced regeneration projects, and crediting arrangements for landfill projects must be radically improved. </p>
<p>The government’s political problem is that it needs to keep the carbon price within a palatable range for Safeguard Mechanism facilities. If it stopped crediting low-integrity projects, prices would skyrocket and not enough high-integrity credits exist to meet demand. </p>
<p>The government could solve the problem by introducing a standard cap price into the Safeguard Mechanism. Instead of surrendering credits, facilities could pay, for instance, A$50 per tonne on excess emissions. But that would open the government to claims that the scheme is just another carbon tax.</p>
<p>Fixing these flaws is challenging. But by refusing to face the problems head-on, the government has sabotaged its own climate policy. Its failure could also permanently stain the reputation of offsets. </p>
<p>Like Robodebt, the scheme is badly designed, unethical, and destined to fail, albeit for different reasons. We can only hope that when it unravels, it doesn’t do Australia’s decarbonisation efforts permanent harm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Macintosh is a director of the Paraway Pastoral Company, which has offset projects registered under the ACCU scheme. He has also received funding for research projects involving analysis of the operation of the ACCU scheme. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Butler receives funding from the Australian Government. </span></em></p>For Australia to shift to a net zero economy, its big polluters need to cut emissions. A get-out clause buried in the policy makes it unlikely that they will, and the result will be devastating.Andrew Macintosh, Professor and Director of Research, ANU Law School, Australian National UniversityDon Butler, Professor, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145492023-10-03T12:31:31Z2023-10-03T12:31:31ZClimate change is about to play a big role in government purchases – with vast implications for the US economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551043/original/file-20230928-21-6jlfb6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C4190%2C2841&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. government is the single largest buyer of services and goods, like vehicles. That has an impact on the economy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/postal-trucks-are-parked-at-a-united-states-postal-service-news-photo/1210107059">Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Each year, the federal government purchases <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/08/climate/biden-government-carbon-neutral.html">about 50,000</a> new vehicles. Until recently, almost all of them ran on diesel or gasoline, contributing to U.S. demand for fossil fuels and encouraging automakers to continue focusing on fossil-fueled vehicles.</p>
<p>That’s starting to change, and a new directive that the Biden Administration quietly issued in September 2023 will accelerate the shift. </p>
<p>The administration <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-actions-to-reduce-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-combat-the-climate-crisis/">directed U.S. agencies</a> to begin considering the social cost of greenhouse gases when making purchase decisions and implementing their budgets.</p>
<p>That one move has vast implications that go far beyond vehicles. It could affect decisions across the government on everything from agriculture grants to fossil fuel drilling on public lands to construction projects. Ultimately, it could shift demand enough to change what industries produce, not just for the government but for the entire country.</p>
<h2>What’s the social cost of greenhouse gas?</h2>
<p>The social cost of greenhouse gases represents the damage created by emitting 1 metric ton of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>These <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/">greenhouse gases</a>, largely from fossil fuels, trap heat in the atmosphere, <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/greenhouse-effect">warming the planet and fueling climate change</a>. The result is <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-at-global-warmings-role-213724">worsening storms</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/summer-2023-was-the-hottest-on-record-yes-its-climate-change-but-dont-call-it-the-new-normal-213021">heat waves, droughts and other disasters</a> that harm humans, infrastructure and economies around the world. The estimate is intended to include changes in agricultural productivity, human health, property damage from increased flood risk, and the value of ecosystem services.</p>
<p>By directing agencies to consider those costs when making purchases and implementing budgets, the administration is making it more likely that agencies will purchase products and make investments that are more energy efficient and less likely to fuel climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Solar panels outside a military airplane hangar." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550835/original/file-20230928-28-pxs7gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550835/original/file-20230928-28-pxs7gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550835/original/file-20230928-28-pxs7gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550835/original/file-20230928-28-pxs7gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550835/original/file-20230928-28-pxs7gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550835/original/file-20230928-28-pxs7gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550835/original/file-20230928-28-pxs7gt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Department of Defense has been taking steps to reduce emissions for several years. Many of its military bases have solar panels, which can produce renewable energy for a few buildings or larger installations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usnavy/7643438142">U.S. Navy</a></span>
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<p>While only a fraction of the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58888">roughly $6 trillion</a> that the U.S. government spends each year would likely be considered under the new directive, that fraction could have far-reaching impacts on the U.S. economy by reducing demand for fossil fuels and lowering emissions across sectors.</p>
<h2>Estimating the cost</h2>
<p>The Obama administration introduced the <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/for-agencies/Social-Cost-of-Carbon-for-RIA.pdf">first federal social cost of carbon</a> to incorporate climate risk in regulatory decisions. It’s calculated using models of the global economy and climate and weighs the value of spending money today for future benefits. </p>
<p>When the Trump administration arrived, it cut the estimated cost from around $50 per metric ton to less than $5, which justified rolling back several environmental regulations, including <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2018-08/documents/utilities_ria_proposed_ace_2018-08.pdf">on power plant emissions</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/safer-affordable-fuel-efficient-safe-vehicles-proposed">fuel efficiency</a>. The Biden administration restored an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/biden-social-cost-carbon-climate-risk-measure-upheld-by-us-appeals-court-2022-10-21/">interim price to about $51</a>, with plans to raise it.</p>
<p>Recent research suggests that the actual social cost of carbon is closer to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9">$185 per metric ton</a>. But carbon dioxide is just one greenhouse gas. The new directive takes other greenhouse gases into consideration, too – in particular, methane, which has <a href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/oil-gas-and-coal/methane-emissions_en">about 80 times</a> the warming power of carbon dioxide over 20 years.</p>
<p>Estimates of the social cost of methane, which comes from livestock and leaks from pipelines and other natural gas equipment, range from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03386-6">$933 per metric ton</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03540-1">$4,000 per metric ton</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Photo of a rusted oil pump in an overgrown field in Texas. Rusted parts are piled beside it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551042/original/file-20230928-19-zdojmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551042/original/file-20230928-19-zdojmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551042/original/file-20230928-19-zdojmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551042/original/file-20230928-19-zdojmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551042/original/file-20230928-19-zdojmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551042/original/file-20230928-19-zdojmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551042/original/file-20230928-19-zdojmw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil and gas wells and pipelines are a common source of methane emissions, including what the Environmental Protection Agency estimates to be more than 3 million abandoned wells across the U.S.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Oil-PluggingWellsandBudgets/727e464e95754337a2346d9be981fcc3/photo">AP Photo/Eric Gay</a></span>
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<p>Without directives like these, decision-makers implicitly set the cost of greenhouse gas emissions to zero in their benefit-cost analyses. The new directives allow agencies to instead compare the expected climate damages, in dollars, when making decisions about vehicle purchases, building infrastructure and permitting, among other choices.</p>
<h2>The vehicle fleet as an example</h2>
<p>The federal vehicle fleet is a good example of how the social costs of greenhouse gases add up.</p>
<p>Let’s compare the costs of driving an electric Ford Focus and an equivalent conventional-fuel Ford Focus. </p>
<p>Assume each vehicle drives an average of 10,000 miles (about 16,000 kilometers) per year – that’s <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm">less than the U.S. average</a> per driver, but it’s a simple number to work with. The damages from emissions in dollars from driving a conventional Ford Focus 10,000 miles are between <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2851/SCC_EV_Spreadsheet.pdf?1696282257">$133 and $484</a>, depending on whether you use a social cost of carbon <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/biden-social-cost-carbon-climate-risk-measure-upheld-by-us-appeals-court-2022-10-21/">of $51 per metric ton</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9">$185 per metric ton</a>.</p>
<p>The climate harm from driving an equivalent electric Ford Focus 10,000 miles, based on the average carbon dioxide emissions intensity from the U.S. electricity grid, would be between $59 and $212, using the same social costs.</p>
<p>Scale that to 50,000 new vehicle purchases, and that’s a cost difference of about $4 million to $13.5 million per year for emissions from operating the vehicles. While producing an EV’s battery <a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/comparative-life-cycle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-of-a-mid-size-bev-and-ice-vehicle">adds to the vehicle’s emissions up front</a>, that’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-do-electric-vehicles-become-cleaner-than-gasoline-cars-2021-06-29/">soon outweighed</a> by operational savings. These are real savings to society.</p>
<p>The U.S. government is also a major consumer of energy. If agencies begin to consider the climate damages associated with fossil energy consumption, they will <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40192#:%7E:text=The%20U.S.%20federal%20government%20consumed,less%20than%20a%20decade%20before.">likely trend toward renewable energy</a>, further lowering their own emissions while boosting the burgeoning industry.</p>
<h2>How the government can shift demand</h2>
<p>These types of comparisons under the new directive could help shift purchases toward a wide range of less carbon-intensive products.</p>
<p>Much of the U.S. government’s spending goes toward carbon-intensive goods and services, such as transportation and infrastructure development. Directing agencies to consider and compare the social cost of purchases in each of these sectors will send similar signals to different segments of the market: The demand for less carbon-intensive goods is rising.</p>
<p>Because this new directive expands to other greenhouse gases, it could have broad implications for new <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/biden-social-cost-carbon-climate-risk-measure-upheld-by-us-appeals-court-2022-10-21/">permitting for oil and gas</a> development and agricultural production, as these are the two largest sources of methane in the U.S.</p>
<p>While this decision is not a tax on carbon or a subsidy for less carbon-intensive goods, it will likely send similar market signals. With respect to purchases, this policy is akin to tax rebates for energy efficient products, like electric vehicle incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act, which boost demand for EVs.</p>
<p>Ultimately, if <a href="https://sciencebasedtargets.org/news/us-government-the-worlds-largest-purchaser-takes-a-bold-step-to-align-supply-chain-with-sbti">one of the largest segments of demand</a>, the U.S. government, transitions to less carbon-intensive products, supply will follow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214549/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jesse Burkhardt receives funding from the USDA and Department of the Interior. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Gifford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Biden administration directed agencies to consider the cost of greenhouse gas emissions in their future purchasing and budget decisions. An example shows just how much is at stake.Jesse Burkhardt, Associate Professor of Energy Economics, Colorado State UniversityLauren Gifford, Associate Director of the Soil Carbon Solutions Center, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133942023-09-13T13:57:15Z2023-09-13T13:57:15ZPossible hints of life found on distant planet – how excited should we be?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547762/original/file-20230912-19-lzosd4.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=5%2C0%2C3811%2C2160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The exoplanet K2-18b might host a water ocean.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/goddard/2023/webb-discovers-methane-carbon-dioxide-in-atmosphere-of-k2-18b">Credits: Illustration: NASA, CSA, ESA, J. Olmsted (STScI), Science: N. Madhusudhan (Cambridge University)</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Data from the <a href="https://webb.nasa.gov/">James Webb Space Telescope</a> (JWST) has shown that an exoplanet around a star in the constellation Leo has some of the chemical markers that, on Earth, are associated with living organisms. But these are vague indications. So how likely is it that this exoplanet harbours alien life?</p>
<p>Exoplanets are worlds that orbit stars other than the Sun. The planet in question is named <a href="http://www.exoplanetkyoto.org/exohtml/K2-18.html">K2-18b</a>. It’s so named because it was the first planet found to orbit the red dwarf star K2-18. There is a K2-18c as well – the second planet to be discovered. The star itself is dimmer and cooler than the Sun, meaning that, to get the same level of light as we do on Earth, the planet would need to be much closer to its star than we are. </p>
<p>The system is roughly 124 light years away, which is close in astronomical terms. So what are conditions like on this exoplanet? This is a difficult question to answer. We have telescopes and techniques powerful enough to tell us what the star is like, and how far away the exoplanet is, but we can’t capture direct images of the planet. We can work out a few basics, however. </p>
<p>Working out how much light hits K2-18b is important for assessing the planet’s potential for life. K2-18b orbits closer to its star than Earth does: it’s at roughly 16% of the distance from Earth to the Sun. Another measurement we need is the star’s power output: the total amount of energy it radiates per second. K2-18’s power output is 2.3% that of the Sun. </p>
<p>Using geometry, we can work out that K2-18b receives about 1.22 kilowatts (kW) in solar power per square metre. <a href="https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Educational/2/1/12">This is similar</a> to the 1.36 kW of incoming light we receive on Earth. Although there’s less energy coming from K2-18, it evens out because the planet is closer. So far, so good. However, the incoming light calculation doesn’t take into account clouds or how reflective the planet’s surface is.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="JWST" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548036/original/file-20230913-19-odwob3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548036/original/file-20230913-19-odwob3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548036/original/file-20230913-19-odwob3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548036/original/file-20230913-19-odwob3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548036/original/file-20230913-19-odwob3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548036/original/file-20230913-19-odwob3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548036/original/file-20230913-19-odwob3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Artist’s impression of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/webb">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When we consider life on other planets, a popular term to use is the <a href="https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/search-for-life/habitable-zone/">habitable zone</a>, which means that at an average surface temperature, water will be in a liquid state – as this condition is considered essential for life. In 2019, the Hubble Space Telescope determined that K2-18b showed signs of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9#change-history">water vapour</a>, suggesting that liquid water would be present on the surface. It is currently thought that there are large oceans on the planet.</p>
<p>This caused a ripple of excitement at the time, but without further evidence it was just an interesting result. Now we have reports that JWST has identified carbon dioxide, methane and – possibly – the compound dimethyl sulfide (DMS) <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/goddard/2023/webb-discovers-methane-carbon-dioxide-in-atmosphere-of-k2-18b">in the atmosphere</a>. The tentative detection of DMS is significant because it is only produced on Earth by <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/dimethyl-sulfide">algae</a>. We currently know of no way it can be naturally produced without a life-form.</p>
<h2>Is there life on K2-18b?</h2>
<p>All these indications seem to suggest that K2-18b might be the place to go to find alien life. It is not quite as simple as that, though, as we have no idea how accurate the results are. The method used to determine what is in the atmosphere of an exoplanet involves light from a different source (usually a star or galaxy) passing through the edge of the atmosphere that is then observed by us. Any chemical compounds will <a href="https://webbtelescope.org/contents/media/images/01FEE26XVSM851DHPVCE1KB4S2">absorb light in specific wavelengths</a> which can then be identified. </p>
<p>Imagine it as looking at a light bulb through a glass tumbler. You can see through it perfectly when empty. If you fill it with water, you can still see through pretty well, but there are some optical effects and colouration, which are the equivalent of hydrogen and dust clouds in space. Now imagine you poured in red food dye – this might be the equivalent of the main chemical constituent in a planet’s atmosphere. </p>
<p>But most atmospheres are made up of many chemicals. The equivalent of looking for any one of them would be like pouring 50 – likely many more – coloured food dyes, in different amounts, into your tumbler and trying to identify how much of one particular colour is present. It is an incredibly difficult task with plenty of room for subjective assessment and errors. In addition, the light going through the atmosphere contains a signal of the star’s chemical constituents – further complicating the analysis.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Atmospheric composition of K2-18 b." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547763/original/file-20230912-17-ds12z4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547763/original/file-20230912-17-ds12z4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547763/original/file-20230912-17-ds12z4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547763/original/file-20230912-17-ds12z4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547763/original/file-20230912-17-ds12z4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547763/original/file-20230912-17-ds12z4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547763/original/file-20230912-17-ds12z4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The chemical composition of K2-18b’s atmosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/goddard/2023/webb-discovers-methane-carbon-dioxide-in-atmosphere-of-k2-18b">Credits: Illustration: NASA, CSA, ESA, R. Crawford (STScI), J. Olmsted (STScI), Science: N. Madhusudhan (Cambridge University)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Only a few years ago there was a surge of interest in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/science/venus-life-clouds.html">whether life existed on Venus</a>, as observations had indicated the presence of phosphine gas, which can be produced by microbes. </p>
<p>However, this finding was later successfully refuted by <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.09761.pdf">several studies</a>. If there can be confusion about what is in the atmosphere of a planet that’s just next door, in astronomical terms, it’s easy to see why analysing a planet that’s many times further away is a difficult task.</p>
<h2>What can we take from this?</h2>
<p>The chances of life on exoplanet K2-18b are low but not impossible. These results will likely not change anybody’s opinions or beliefs about extraterrestrial life. Instead, they do demonstrate the advancing ability to look into worlds that are not our own and find more information. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Rho Ophiuchi" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548021/original/file-20230913-21-su4cro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548021/original/file-20230913-21-su4cro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548021/original/file-20230913-21-su4cro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548021/original/file-20230913-21-su4cro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548021/original/file-20230913-21-su4cro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548021/original/file-20230913-21-su4cro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548021/original/file-20230913-21-su4cro.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=706&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">JWST image of Rho Ophiuchi, the closest star-forming region to Earth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://webbtelescope.org/contents/media/images/2023/128/01H449193V5Q4Q6GFBKXAZ3S03?news=true">NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Klaus Pontoppidan (STScI)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The power of JWST is not only in producing incredible pictures, but in providing <a href="https://webbtelescope.org/contents/news-releases/2023/news-2023-103.html">more detailed</a> and accurate data on celestial objects themselves. Knowing which exoplanets host water and which do not could provide information on how the Earth formed. </p>
<p>Studying the atmospheres of gas giant exoplanets can inform the study of similar worlds in the Solar System, such as Jupiter and Saturn. And identifying levels of CO2 indicates how an extreme greenhouse effect might affect a planet. This is the real power of studying the composition of planetary atmospheres.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213394/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Whittaker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The results are intriguing, but analysing the atmospheres of exoplanets is no easy task.Ian Whittaker, Senior Lecturer in Physics, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124592023-09-04T02:09:22Z2023-09-04T02:09:22ZHealth evidence against gas and oil is piling up, as governments turn a blind eye<p>We are seeing <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate">deadly heat and fires</a> circle the world. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/about/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/resources/spm-headline-statements/">warns</a> we are fast running out of time to secure a liveable and sustainable future. Without emergency action to stop mining and burning fossil fuels, the world faces an unthinkable 2.8°C temperature rise.</p>
<p>It’s incomprehensible, then, that many of our politicians support “<a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/January%202021/document/beetaloo-strategic-basin-plan.pdf">unlocking the Beetaloo Basin</a>” in the Northern Territory and developing another <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-12/resources-and-energy-major-projects-2022_0.pdf">48 oil and gas projects</a> across Australia. </p>
<p>“Unlocking” means starting large-scale shale gas extraction. After drilling through 3–4km of rock and aquifers, a cocktail of chemicals, sand and water is forced down the well. This process of hydraulic fracturing is commonly known as fracking. This brings to the surface, and then into the atmosphere, carbon that had been securely stored underground for <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/">300–400 million years</a>. </p>
<p>Today we have launched a <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/content/dam/corporate/documents/about-us/values-and-visions/aboriginal-and-torres-straight-islander-community/risks_of_og_development.pdf">report</a> that demonstrates the many risks of oil and gas development for human health and wellbeing in Australia. Based on a review of over 300 peer-reviewed studies, our report provides the public and decision-makers with a summary of the now-extensive evidence of these risks.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-116-new-coal-oil-and-gas-projects-equate-to-215-new-coal-power-stations-202135">Australia's 116 new coal, oil and gas projects equate to 215 new coal power stations</a>
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<h2>What is the evidence against oil and gas?</h2>
<p>There is a need to combat widely held misconceptions and repeated misinformation about the safety of the oil and gas industry. We undertook the review at the request of concerned paediatricians in the Northern Territory.</p>
<p><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ace3db">New research</a> clearly shows that “unlocking gas” is at least as harmful to the climate as mining and burning coal. This is largely due to methane leaks at many stages of production. Methane is <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2020/july/emissions-of-methane-are-rising">86 times more powerful</a> than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere over 20 years.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/methane-must-fall-to-slow-global-heating-but-only-13-of-emissions-are-actually-regulated-205941">Methane must fall to slow global heating – but only 13% of emissions are actually regulated</a>
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<p>Doors opened for the 49 planned projects in Australia after state reviews of potential impacts. These reviews are flawed and outdated as the volume of published studies has grown rapidly in recent years. Reviews were undertaken, for example, in <a href="https://www.chiefscientist.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/314382/140930-CSG-Final-Report.pdf">New South Wales</a> in 2014, <a href="https://frackinginquiry.nt.gov.au/inquiry-reports/final-report">Northern Territory</a> in 2017, <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=3d33f399-4990-41a4-9513-06612733f7f3&subId=410766">South Australia</a> in 2015 and <a href="https://frackinginquiry.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/final_report.pdf">Western Australia</a> in 2018.</p>
<p>Our report synthesises recent scientific and public health research on five areas of concern about oil and gas operations: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>threats to biodiversity, water and food security arising from site preparation, drilling, fracking, wastewater handling, gas pipeline transport and processing</p></li>
<li><p>contributions to the climate emergency</p></li>
<li><p>a vast array of potentially harmful chemicals</p></li>
<li><p>contamination of water, soil and air </p></li>
<li><p>physical, social, emotional and spiritual health impacts near oil and gas fields and their sprawling infrastructure. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>Each fracking event to release shale gas uses <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-much-water-does-typical-hydraulically-fractured-well-require">6 million to 60 million litres</a> of fresh water. Fracking is often applied many times to each of hundreds to thousands of wells in a region. This puts <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aar5982">water security at risk</a> in arid areas. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mining-vs-rivers-a-single-line-on-a-map-could-determine-the-future-of-water-in-the-northern-territory-192626">Mining vs rivers: a single line on a map could determine the future of water in the Northern Territory</a>
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<p>Each step of gas production creates risks of contamination of surface and ground water. With vast quantities of wastewater, it can happen through spilling, leaking, flooding and overflows. Wastewater can even be <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.8b00716">deliberately spread</a> for so-called “beneficial uses”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1694471318329229612"}"></div></p>
<p>This wastewater contains <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1235009">hundreds of chemicals</a>. Some are naturally occurring. Others are added during drilling and fracking. </p>
<p>These chemicals can include heavy metals, phenols, barium, volatile organic compounds including benzene, toluene, ethylene and xylene, radioactive materials, fluoride, polyaromatic hydrocarbons, salt and many chemicals of unknown toxicity.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-040218-043715">Air becomes contaminated</a> with volatile organic compounds, polyaromatic hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, radioactive materials, diesel fumes, hydrogen sulfide, acrolein and heavy metals. Formaldehyde, particulate matter and <a href="https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article/doi/10.1525/elementa.398/112753/Air-quality-impacts-from-oil-and-natural-gas">ground-level ozone</a> are formed and travel long distances, damaging health and agriculture.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/companies-that-frack-for-oil-and-gas-can-keep-a-lot-of-information-secret-but-what-they-disclose-shows-widespread-use-of-hazardous-chemicals-193915">Companies that frack for oil and gas can keep a lot of information secret – but what they disclose shows widespread use of hazardous chemicals</a>
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<h2>What are the health impacts?</h2>
<p>People exposed to oil and gas operations experience a long list of harms. These include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>more severe <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/49/6/1883/5900868">asthma in children</a> requiring more medical treatment, emergency department visits and hospitalisations </p></li>
<li><p>higher hospitalisation and death rates due to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33581094/">heart attacks</a>, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33303076/">heart failure</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272722000032">respiratory diseases</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321001286?via%3Dihub">some cancers</a></p></li>
<li><p>higher injury and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069620300267">fatality rates</a> due to increased heavy vehicle traffic</p></li>
<li><p>increases in depression, anxiety and social withdrawal, especially among <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35341757/">young</a> and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35325816/">pregnant</a> women</p></li>
<li><p>increases in <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194203">sexually transmitted infections</a> associated with the industry’s mobile workforces</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33039138/">reproductive harms</a> and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34413223/">interference with development</a> of unborn babies, including higher risks of low birth weight, pre-term delivery and spontaneous abortion </p></li>
<li><p>higher risk of <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37076028/">severe birth defects</a> </p></li>
<li><p>higher risk of <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/EHP11092">acute lymphoblastic leukemia</a>. </p></li>
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<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1688874133793198081"}"></div></p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/land-clearing-and-fracking-in-australias-northern-territory-threatens-the-worlds-largest-intact-tropical-savanna-208028">Land clearing and fracking in Australia's Northern Territory threatens the world's largest intact tropical savanna</a>
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<h2>Putting Indigenous people and others in harm’s way</h2>
<p>Many of the 49 planned projects affect Aboriginal land. Some companies have allegedly violated the rights of Traditional Owners to <a href="https://www.accr.org.au/downloads/Jumbunna-FPIC-review-final.pdf">free, prior and informed consent</a>. The <a href="https://nit.com.au/25-06-2021/2087/fracking-inquiry-for-beetaloo-basin">massive disruption</a> of Aboriginal Country and life puts people at great risk of physical, <a href="https://anthrosource.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.2153-9561.2012.01066.x">social, emotional</a>, <a href="https://soe.dcceew.gov.au/indigenous/outlook-and-impact">cultural</a> and <a href="https://nit.com.au/25-06-2021/2087/fracking-inquiry-for-beetaloo-basin">spiritual</a> harm.</p>
<p>The report also issues a loud warning about sexual violence against First Nations <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/program/fpw/2019/03/14/new-report-finds-increase-violence-coincides-oil-boom">Americans</a> and <a href="https://www.mmiwg-ffada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Final_Report_Vol_1a-1.pdf">Canadians</a> associated with oil and gas activities. The WA <a href="https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/Parliament/commit.nsf/(Report+Lookup+by+Com+ID)/EF1DF1A3F5DF74A848258869000E6B32/$file/20220621%20-Report%20No%202.pdf">parliamentary inquiry</a> into women’s experiences of sexual harassment and sexual violence in “fly in, fly out” (FIFO) mines suggests these risks apply equally in Australia. Yet all <a href="https://territorystories.nt.gov.au/10070/898896/0/37">government assessments</a> of oil and gas development in Australia completely ignore these risks. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-beetaloo-drilling-program-brings-potential-health-and-social-issues-for-aboriginal-communities-in-remote-nt-165392">The Beetaloo drilling program brings potential health and social issues for Aboriginal communities in remote NT</a>
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<p>In the United States, the industry has grown so vast within two decades that over <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5783652/">17.6 million people</a> live within a mile (1.6km) of oil or gas wells. By 2016, the estimated <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5309/acc886">cost to the community</a> was US$77 billion. This was the cost of illness, extra health care and premature deaths (7,500) from asthma, respiratory and cardiovascular disease due to air pollution alone. </p>
<p>Our report makes clear any further gas development will have serious impacts on the climate, the people living in or near gas fields and the overburdened health services that serve them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-trillion-tonnes-of-greenhouse-gases-25-billion-nukes-of-heat-are-we-pushing-earth-out-of-the-goldilocks-zone-202619">Two trillion tonnes of greenhouse gases, 25 billion nukes of heat: are we pushing Earth out of the Goldilocks zone?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Haswell has previously received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the National Suicide Prevention Strategy, the Cooperative Research Centre for Aboriginal Health, Queensland Department of Environment and Science, Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, Australian Red Cross, The Healing Foundation, Queensland Health and Australian Health Ministers Advisory Council. She is affiliated with the Climate and Health Alliance, Australian Public Health Association and the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacob Hegedus is member of NSW Young Labor Party</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Shearman and Lisa Jackson Pulver do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new report spans more than 300 peer-reviewed studies to present a comprehensive summary of the risks the industry creates for people’s health and wellbeing, as well as for the planet.Melissa Haswell, Professor of Health, Safety and Environment, Queensland University of Technology and Professor of Practice in Environmental Wellbeing, Office of the Deputy Vice Chancellor (Indigenous Strategy and Services) and Honorary Professor (School of Geosciences), University of SydneyDavid Shearman, Emeritus Professor of Medicine, University of AdelaideJacob Hegedus, Research Assistant, University of SydneyLisa Jackson Pulver, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Professor of Public Health and Epidemiology, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2112112023-08-14T15:35:44Z2023-08-14T15:35:44ZRising methane could be a sign that Earth’s climate is part-way through a ‘termination-level transition’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542605/original/file-20230814-9314-9s19nb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5472%2C3645&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Soaring wetland emissions of methane mirror those which accompanied previous abrupt changes in Earth's climate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/scientist-collecting-sediment-core-asses-carbon-1986241904">I. Noyan Yilmaz/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since 2006, the amount of heat-trapping methane in Earth’s atmosphere has been rising fast and, unlike the rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane’s recent increase seems to be driven by biological emissions, not the burning of fossil fuels. This might just be ordinary variability – a result of natural climate cycles such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/el-nino-southern-oscillation-61187">El Niño</a>. Or <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007875">it may signal</a> that a great transition in Earth’s climate has begun.</p>
<p>Molecule for molecule, methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂ but it lasts slightly less than a decade in the atmosphere compared with centuries for CO₂. Methane emissions threaten humanity’s ability to limit warming to relatively safe levels. Even more troubling, the rate at which methane is increasing in the atmosphere has accelerated recently. Something like this has happened before: sudden surges in methane marked the transitions from cold ice ages to warm interglacial climates.</p>
<p>Methane was about <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.1115193?casa_token=SO-68A9Lm3QAAAAA:updtgEm-JlhLIaCTTldcjAWM4dVriBaMQIxZL14LwlVbB-qIeQHcLmyZfGA7v9fSjZKliUmXAv_DI6s">0.7 parts per million</a> (ppm) of the air before humans began burning fossil fuels. Now it is <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/">over 1.9 ppm</a> and rising fast. Roughly three-fifths of emissions come from fossil fuel use, farming, landfills and waste. The remainder is from natural sources, especially vegetation rotting in tropical and northern wetlands.</p>
<p>Methane is both a driver and a messenger of climate change. We don’t know why it is now rising so rapidly, but the pattern of growth since late 2006 resembles how methane behaved during great flips in Earth’s climate in the distant past.</p>
<h2>The methane record: 2006 to present</h2>
<p>In late 2006, atmospheric methane unexpectedly <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.1247828?casa_token=ZtY4QHzYPL8AAAAA:aXanfP6nE_aHHNnODZCRtCkojp78rOg5fKIvKgnU7fWVRrypW0ln9TEchFLxtUFyyUzr1JQh_MI364U">began rising</a>. Methane had risen fast in the 19th and 20th centuries but plateaued by the end of the 1990s. This rise was driven by fossil fuel emissions, especially from gasfields and coal mines.</p>
<p>Imagine accelerating a car with your foot flat down. The car speeds up but eventually air resistance equals engine power and the car hits maximum speed. In 1999, it looked like methane had reached a similar equilibrium between its sources and sinks. Then in late 2006, the amount of methane in the air <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GB005406">climbed fast</a>. Even more unexpectedly five years later, the rate of growth <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2020.0440">sped up again</a>. During the 2020s the growth rate has become yet faster, faster even than during the peak of gas industry leaks <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007875">in the 1980s</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A line graph showing methane in the air rising rapidly from 2006." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542595/original/file-20230814-19-qrx4vh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542595/original/file-20230814-19-qrx4vh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542595/original/file-20230814-19-qrx4vh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542595/original/file-20230814-19-qrx4vh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542595/original/file-20230814-19-qrx4vh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542595/original/file-20230814-19-qrx4vh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542595/original/file-20230814-19-qrx4vh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Methane in the air rose rapidly from 2006 – then it rose again, and again.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007875">NOAA/Nisbet et al. (2023)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today’s growth seems to be driven by <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/4863/2023/acp-23-4863-2023.html">new emissions</a> from <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00488-5">wetlands</a>, especially near the equator but perhaps also from Canada (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/334295a0">beavers are methane factories</a> which pull <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/abs/10.1139/z88-076">huge amounts of plant matter</a> into ponds they’ve made) and Siberia. This is a result of climate change: increasing rainfall has made wetlands wetter and bigger while rising temperatures have boosted plant growth, providing more decomposing matter and so more methane. Emissions from huge cattle lots in tropical Africa, India and Brazil may also be <a href="https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ghg70">rising</a> and rotting waste in <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.abn9683">landfills</a> near megacities like Delhi are important sources too. </p>
<h2>Climate terminations</h2>
<p>In the past <a href="https://www.episodes.org/journal/view.html?volume=31&number=2&spage=211&vmd=Full">few million years</a>, Earth’s climate has <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1613883114">flipped repeatedly</a> between long, cold glacial periods, with ice sheets covering northern Europe and Canada, and shorter warm inter-glacials. </p>
<p>When each ice age ended, Earth’s surface warmed by as much as several degrees centigrade over a few millennia. Recorded in air bubbles in ice cores, sharply rising methane concentrations are the bellwethers of these great climate-warming events. With each flip from a glacial to an interglacial climate there have been sudden, sharp rises in atmospheric methane, likely from <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1613883114">expanding tropical wetlands</a>.</p>
<p>These great climate flips that ended each ice age are known as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0277379190900267?casa_token=Gowdxvu24OcAAAAA:2CHMqxymEdYWZXRZzDYYNALL5iHHUp5_pZbvSFTW1GiUw9tSXY-a6jHCYolLpVlx0Dte-fLbmuA">terminations</a>. Each has a Roman numeral, ranging from Termination IX which happened about 800,000 years ago to Termination IA which initiated the modern climate less than <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.2007869117">12,000 years ago</a>. For example, around <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379115300512">131,000 years ago</a> during Termination II, the British climate suddenly flipped from glaciers in the Cotswolds to hippopotami wallowing in what is now Trafalgar Square.</p>
<p>Full terminations take several thousands of years to complete, but many include a creeping onset of warming, then a very abrupt phase of extremely rapid climate change that can take <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/34346">a century or less</a>, followed by a longer, slower period during which the great ice caps finally melt. In the abrupt phase of the great change that brought about the modern climate, Greenland’s temperature rose by around 10°C within a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379104003245?via%3Dihub">few decades</a>. During these abrupt phases, methane climbs very steeply indeed.</p>
<h2>Is something dramatic underway?</h2>
<p>Methane fluctuated widely in pre-industrial times. But its increasingly rapid growth since 2006 is comparable with records of methane from the early years of abrupt phases of past termination events, like the one that warmed Greenland so dramatically <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379104003245?via%3Dihub">less than 12,000 years ago</a>.</p>
<p>There is already lots of evidence that the climate is shifting. Atlantic ocean currents are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4.">slowing</a>, tropical weather regions are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0227-5">expanding</a>, the far north and south are <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0acc/meta">warming fast</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2">ocean heat</a> is breaking records and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00397-x">extreme weather</a> is becoming routine.</p>
<p>In glacial terminations, the entire climate system reorganises. In the past, this took Earth out of stable ice age climates and into warm inter-glacials. But we are already in a warm interglacial. What comes next is hard to imagine: loss of sea ice in the Arctic in summer, thinning or partial collapse of the ice caps in Greenland and West Antarctica, reorganisation of the Atlantic’s ocean currents and the poleward expansion of tropical weather circulation patterns. The consequences, both for the biosphere in general and food production in south and east Asia and parts of Africa in particular, would be very significant.</p>
<p>There’s much to be done that could hastily <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019RG000675">stop methane’s rise</a>: plugging leaks in the oil and gas industry, covering landfills with soil, reducing crop-waste burning. Shooting the methane messenger won’t stop climate change, which is primarily driven by CO₂ emissions, but it will help. </p>
<p>Roman numerals IX to I denote past great climate transitions. There is no Roman number zero, but then any future termination-scale transition will be different – a temperature step from our present interglacial climate to some new future that is warmer yet. Methane’s signal is still unclear, but the question remains: has <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GB007875">Termination Zero</a> begun?</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211211/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Euan Nisbet receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council and the European Union. All studies of greenhouse gases in the modern atmosphere are underpinned by data from US NOAA's Cooperative Air Sampling Network, a partnership of volunteers sampling a globally distributed network of sites.</span></em></p>The last time methane in the air rose so fast, Greenland warmed by 10°C within decades.Euan Nisbet, Professor of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105602023-08-01T06:16:12Z2023-08-01T06:16:12ZHere’s how wastewater facilities could tackle food waste, generate energy and slash emissions<p>Most Australian food waste ends up in landfill. Rotting in the absence of oxygen produces methane, a potent greenhouse gas. While some facilities capture this “landfill gas” to produce energy, or burn it off to release carbon dioxide instead, it’s a <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/nasa-sensors-to-help-detect-methane-emitted-by-landfills">major contributor to climate change</a>. Valuable resources such as water and nutrients are also wasted.</p>
<p>Composting food waste is the most common alternative. In the presence of oxygen, microbes break down food and garden organics without producing methane. The product returns nutrients to farms and gardens. But composting facilities are limited and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-30/fogo-household-organic-food-waste-overwhelmed-by-plastics/102611732">struggling to cope</a> with contamination from plastic.</p>
<p><a href="https://racefor2030.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/0195_Mapping-Syd-Org-Waste_Final-report_.pdf">We analysed</a> the capacity of three wastewater facilities in Sydney to process organic wastes from surrounding households and businesses. </p>
<p>We found processing at the wastewater treatment plants could cut 33,000 tonnes of emissions and capture 9,600 tonnes of nutrients. All 14 wastewater facilities in Sydney could be modified to accept food waste, reducing emissions and producing renewable energy. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-compost-why-recycling-food-waste-is-so-much-better-than-sending-it-to-landfill-205583">The case for compost: why recycling food waste is so much better than sending it to landfill</a>
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<h2>Why process food waste at wastewater facilities?</h2>
<p>Most wastewater facilities in Sydney use “anaerobic digestors” to treat sewage. Along with producing energy, this type of processing produces nutrient-rich biosolids that can be used for soil conditioning and as fertiliser.</p>
<p>Wastewater facilities are normally built with excess capacity to meet future demand and so could be used to handle food waste.</p>
<p>When the New South Wales government recently assessed the <a href="https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/385730/NSW-Waste-and-Sustainable-Materials-Strategy-A-guide-to-infrastructure-needs.pdf">infrastructure needs</a> to process food waste for the Greater Sydney Area by 2030, it identified an additional 260,000 tonnes per year of anaerobic digestion capacity is needed, on top of additional new composting infrastructure.</p>
<p>Currently, there is only one <a href="https://earthpower.com.au">commercial anaerobic digestion plant in Sydney</a> with a processing capacity of 52,000 tonnes per year. </p>
<p><a href="https://racefor2030.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/0195_Mapping-Syd-Org-Waste_Final-report_.pdf">Our study</a> estimated just three wastewater facilities could fill 20% of the identified anaerobic digestion capacity gap required for Sydney by 2030. </p>
<p>Overseas, it is common for wastewater facilities to handle food waste, and <a href="https://www.sydneywater.com.au/content/dam/sydneywater/documents/institute-for-sustainable-futures-creating-a-circular-economy-precinct.pdf">in some cases</a> generate more electricity than needed for their operation. These facilities give the excess electricity to the communities from which the food waste is collected and the nutrients back to local farms, creating a circular economy.</p>
<p>While industrial-scale composting facilities are normally located on the outskirts of Sydney, wastewater facilities are distributed throughout the city. This provides an additional benefit as food waste can be processed closer to where it is made, saving on significant transfer infrastructure and transport costs. </p>
<p>Although some changes are required to enable wastewater facilities to accept and process food waste, there are great returns on investment. As a recent <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2022-10/ISF%20Unlocking%20the%20value%20of%20food%20waste%20in%20Western%20Sydney%20full%20report.pdf">economic study for Western Parkland City</a> has shown, upgrading facilities brings wider economic benefits and creates jobs, along with the environmental benefits. </p>
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<h2>Separate food waste at the source</h2>
<p>To maximise anaerobic digestion at wastewater facilities, food waste needs to be separated from other wastes. This is because contamination and non-compatible materials in the waste stream can hinder the microbal processes driving anaerobic digestion. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/385683/NSW-Waste-and-Sustainable-Materials-Strategy-2041.pdf">NSW targets</a> require all businesses making large amounts of food waste to separate it from other waste by 2025. Similarly, all households will need to separate food waste by 2030.</p>
<p>Currently most councils in Sydney offer a garden waste collection service. Only a few provide food waste collection and mostly in FOGO bins (combined Food Organics and Garden Organics waste service). However, the garden organics component of FOGO cannot be easily digested with sewage and would need significant additional pre-treatment before it can be processed.</p>
<p>Urban food organics are normally collected by trucks. This waste stream could potentially be piped to the wastewater treatment plant, with or without sewage. But piped networks were not considered for food waste collection in this study. It’s an interesting area for future research, especially in dense urban areas.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-keep-putting-apartment-residents-waste-in-the-too-hard-basket-200545">We can't keep putting apartment residents' waste in the too hard basket</a>
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<h2>Achieving net zero targets while reducing waste</h2>
<p>The three wastewater facilities we studied could generate an estimated total of 38 billion litres of methane a year. This could replace the natural gas used by 30,000 households. </p>
<p>The bioenergy potential of the organic wastes from the study areas was estimated to be 126,000MWh. That is four and a half times more than the energy generated from solar panels installed in the area. </p>
<p>This study shows methane generated by anaerobic digestion can play an important role in the renewable energy mix. It can be used to generate electricity, as transport fuel, or as a natural gas replacement. </p>
<p>The wastewater facility at Malabar in Sydney is <a href="https://arena.gov.au/projects/malabar-biomethane-injection-project/">the first project in Australia injecting biogas</a> into the gas network, demonstrating its feasibility. </p>
<p>The waste, energy and water sectors are all expected to achieve net zero targets. Reducing food waste and redirecting to more beneficial use works towards these targets. </p>
<p>Harnessing the full potential of anaerobic digestion of food waste at wastewater facilities will require collaboration between these sectors. But as we have shown, it will be worth it. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/households-find-low-waste-living-challenging-heres-what-needs-to-change-197022">Households find low-waste living challenging. Here's what needs to change</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210560/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research was supported by funding from RACE for 2030, NSW Department of Planning and Environment, NSW Department of Primary Industries, NSW EPA, and Sydney Water. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research was supported by funding from RACE for 2030, NSW Department of Planning and Environment, NSW Department of Primary Industries, NSW EPA and Sydney Water.</span></em></p>Sydney’s 14 wastewater treatment plants could be modified to also accept food waste, research shows. The ‘anaerobic digestion’ process would produce energy as well as nutrients for reuse.Melita Jazbec, Research Principal at the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, University of Technology SydneyAndrea Turner, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyBen Madden, Senior Research Consultant at the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099562023-07-30T12:42:03Z2023-07-30T12:42:03ZOil and gas sector’s low compliance with methane regulations jeopardizes Canada’s net-zero goals<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539324/original/file-20230725-30-lynqd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5650%2C3763&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chronic issues in methane emissions enforcement and measuring threatens the prospects of a net-zero future.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/David Goldman)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/oil-and-gas-sectors-low-compliance-with-methane-regulations-jeopardizes-canadas-net-zero-goals" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is an important part of Canada’s strategy to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2023.2229295">newly published study</a> by our team of researchers at St. Francis Xavier University illustrates why regulation is only a first step.</p>
<p>When it comes to climate change, carbon dioxide gets the media attention. However, <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-crucial-opportunity-climate-fight">methane has 80 times more warming power within its first 20 years of reaching the atmosphere</a>. Targeting methane is an efficient way of reaching Canada’s emissions reduction goals.</p>
<p>Along with <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2021/10/canada-confirms-its-support-for-the-global-methane-pledge-and-announces-ambitious-domestic-actions-to-slash-methane-emissions.html">signing the Global Methane Pledge</a>, Canada has also <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2022/09/canada-releases-faster-and-further-canadas-methane-strategy2.html">introduced methane reduction targets</a> for its oil and gas sector. And while these developments would seem to indicate that Canada is progressing toward its emission reduction targets, our study highlights the importance of not just creating regulation but <em>enforcing</em> it.</p>
<h2>Low compliance decreases the certainty of achieving net-zero by 2050</h2>
<p>In 2020, new methane regulations came into effect in British Columbia’s oil and gas sector. <a href="https://www.bclaws.gov.bc.ca/civix/document/id/complete/statreg/282_2010">The regulation</a> requires periodic leak detection and repair (LDAR) surveys at oil and gas facilities to reduce unintentional methane emissions caused by leaking infrastructure.</p>
<p>While it is worth acknowledging that our data is from the first year of regulation, which inevitably involves several challenges, the results were nonetheless disappointing. We found that, in 2020, B.C. oil and gas companies demonstrated <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2023.2229295">only 62 per cent compliance</a> with the provincial regulation.</p>
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<img alt="Methane leaks from a well in front of a line of trees." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539546/original/file-20230726-17-tgwt8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539546/original/file-20230726-17-tgwt8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539546/original/file-20230726-17-tgwt8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539546/original/file-20230726-17-tgwt8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539546/original/file-20230726-17-tgwt8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539546/original/file-20230726-17-tgwt8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539546/original/file-20230726-17-tgwt8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Methane leaks are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection via AP)</span></span>
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<p>Optimistic readers may see these compliance figures as positive; the glass is more than half full given most producers complied. However, the modelling on which emissions reduction regulations are based <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2023.2229295">assumes 100 per cent compliance</a>. </p>
<p>This means that 100 per cent compliance is required to achieve the outcomes that the regulations were designed to promote. </p>
<p>So, if 95 per cent wouldn’t be good enough to reach emissions reduction targets, 62 per cent <em>really</em> isn’t good enough. The gap between regulatory modelling and actual emissions reductions is a major barrier to reaching net-zero.</p>
<p>In 2020, compliance was likely impacted by the pandemic. However, the BC Energy Regulator <a href="https://www.bcogc.ca/news/bc-oil-and-gas-commission-covid-19-response-for-industry/">did not suspend its LDAR requirements in 2020</a> and producers were still expected to follow regulations. While the situation seems to have improved from 2020, compliance gaps remain.</p>
<h2>Policy lessons</h2>
<p>Data from the first year of methane regulation in B.C. has provided several important insights.</p>
<p>Principally, a 62 per cent compliance rate tells us that not enough is being done to enforce regulations. Canada needs to introduce enforcement mechanisms if it wants to achieve meaningful emission reductions from all producers.</p>
<p>One example of strong enforcement is in New Mexico where, only days after failing to report methane emissions, <a href="https://www.currentargus.com/story/news/2022/03/17/new-mexico-oil-gas-companies-fined-methane-violations-air-pollution/6999036001/">five oil and gas producers were fined a total of US$275,000</a>. </p>
<p>Fines aren’t the only option. A stricter permit renewal process, royalty rate variances, or restrictions on development can also help enforce regulation. If Canada introduced enforcement mechanisms, the gap between federal models and actual emissions should begin to close, putting us on a surer path to net-zero.</p>
<p>The second lesson from the study relates to LDAR methodology. Regulation requires that most facility types be surveyed with instruments. However, some facility types can be screened without the use of instruments, using only the senses of hearing, sight and smell. Our study showed that screening surveys are <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2023.2229295">overwhelmingly ineffective <em>and</em> more expensive</a>. </p>
<p>This conclusion is consistent with industry’s own <a href="https://methaneguidingprinciples.org/">Methane Guiding Principles</a>, which recommends that all LDAR surveying be done with instruments.</p>
<p>Another issue we found was that surveys conducted by oil and gas producers internally tended to report <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2023.2229295">unrealistic or sometimes very high values of methane</a> compared to surveys conducted by a third party. Where good measurements help us track the efficacy of methane regulations, inaccurate data clouds our picture of progress. Third-party verification would be a good idea.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A flare burning off methane and other hydrocarbons is detected in the background next to an oil pumpjack as a cow walks through a field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539548/original/file-20230726-25-o1kw5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539548/original/file-20230726-25-o1kw5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539548/original/file-20230726-25-o1kw5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539548/original/file-20230726-25-o1kw5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539548/original/file-20230726-25-o1kw5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539548/original/file-20230726-25-o1kw5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539548/original/file-20230726-25-o1kw5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A number of precise instruments are available to measure methane emissions, including the Optical Gas Thermal Imaging Camera.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/David Goldman)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lastly, our study was possible because the relevant LDAR data was accessible. Currently, British Columbia is <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2023.2229295">the only province to publish LDAR data</a> associated with methane regulations. </p>
<p>Increasing the efficacy of our regulations requires publicly available data, but it’s also important that regulators improve <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2023.2229295">the lack of clarity surrounding the number and type of facilities in operation</a>. </p>
<p>Improved datasets would increase our ability to evaluate regulatory effectiveness. </p>
<h2>Changes to regulation must be implemented now</h2>
<p>With the impacts of climate change blazing across the country, it’s clear we must keep pushing forward. In studies like this one we learn how to maximize regulatory effectiveness. We can only achieve net zero if we act on these lessons.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/methane-must-fall-to-slow-global-heating-but-only-13-of-emissions-are-actually-regulated-205941">Methane must fall to slow global heating – but only 13% of emissions are actually regulated</a>
</strong>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209956/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Risk receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Natural Resources Canada, McCall MacBain Foundation, Petroleum Technology Research Centre, Petroleum Technology Alliance of Canada, Maritime Launch Services, Brian Mulroney Institute of Government, and annually conducts several small field measurement projects for oil and gas producers.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elise Canning and Martin Lavoie do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Regulating greenhouse gas emissions is an important part of Canada’s strategy to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, a newly published study illustrates why enforcing regulation is key.David Risk, Brian Mulroney Institute of Government Research Chair in Climate Science and Policy, St. Francis Xavier UniversityElise Canning, FluxLab Researcher, St. Francis Xavier UniversityMartin Lavoie, Research Scientist and Data Analyst, St. Francis Xavier UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2076762023-06-14T12:34:45Z2023-06-14T12:34:45ZWildfire smoke and dirty air are also climate change problems: Solutions for a world on fire<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531803/original/file-20230613-27-deg09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1285%2C457%2C6513%2C4560&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People wore face masks as wildfire smoke from Canada turned New York City's sky orange on June 7, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/person-wears-a-face-mask-as-smoke-from-wildfires-in-canada-news-photo/1258513476">Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the eastern U.S. and Canada reeled from <a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfire-smoke-can-harm-human-health-even-when-the-fire-is-hundreds-of-miles-away-a-toxicologist-explains-why-206057">days of thick wildfire smoke</a> in early June 2023, millions of people faced the reality of climate change for the first time. Shocking images of New York under <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLN3kBthm9Y">apocalyptic orange skies</a> left many people glued to <a href="https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/?showgreencontours=false">air quality indices</a> and wondering whether it was safe to go outside.</p>
<p>What they might not realize is that the air many of them breathe isn’t healthy even when wildfire smoke isn’t filling the sky. </p>
<p>In fact, the air that <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/04-04-2022-billions-of-people-still-breathe-unhealthy-air-new-who-data">99% of the world’s population</a> breathes is not safe, according to the World Health Organization.</p>
<p>Air pollution is everywhere, in cities and in the countryside, visible and invisible. It kills an estimated 7 million to 10 million people a year, <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/news/cleaning-air">taking 2.2 years off global average life expectancy</a>. Worldwide, that’s a combined 17 billion life years. There is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1803222115">growing evidence</a> that even low levels of air pollutants damage the human body, increasing the risk of <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-in-wildfire-smoke-a-toxicologist-explains-the-health-risks-and-which-masks-can-help-164597">cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses</a> like asthma and emphysema, heart disease and lung cancer.</p>
<p>Because of its generally local and immediate impacts on human health, air pollution is often not talked about in the same sentence as climate change. Yet air pollution can be harmful for the planet, too. Nearly all actions to reduce climate change lead to improved air quality, and there are many ways to clean up air pollution that provide climate benefits.</p>
<h2>A toxic relationship</h2>
<p>When people talk about reducing climate change, they often focus on carbon dioxide emissions, and for good reason. Carbon dioxide, largely from burning fossil fuels, is the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide">largest driver of climate change</a>, and it lingers in the atmosphere for centuries, warming the planet.</p>
<p>But there are other pollution sources that harm the climate, and reducing them can have a much faster impact on global warming in the short term.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/black-carbon">Black carbon</a> – the tiny particles in the air from wildfires and also from vehicles – along with <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-announces-a-sweeping-methane-plan-heres-why-cutting-the-greenhouse-gas-is-crucial-for-protecting-climate-and-health-168220">methane</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cooling-conundrum-hfcs-were-the-safer-replacement-for-another-damaging-chemical-in-refrigerators-and-air-conditioners-with-a-treaty-now-phasing-them-out-whats-next-191172">hydrofluorocarbons</a> and <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/tropospheric-ozone">tropospheric ozone</a>, are known as <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/science-resources">short-lived climate pollutants</a>. They account for <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf">around half of today’s global warming</a>, contributing to rising sea levels and more frequent and extreme climatic events, including the devastating wildfires we’re increasingly seeing across the world.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1666592756456738816"}"></div></p>
<p>In addition, these pollutants have disastrous impacts on human health, food supplies and <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/statements/statement-chief-scientists-2022-international-day-clean-air-blue-skies">biodiversity</a>.</p>
<p>Methane, for example, is a <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/news/methane%E2%80%99s-links-respiratory-diseases-strengthens-case-its-rapid-reduction">key precursor to ground-level ozone</a>, which is created by <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ground-level-ozone-pollution/ground-level-ozone-basics">reactions between natural and human-made compounds</a> in the presence of sunlight. It kills an estimated 1 million people per year and also harms vital global crops, including cotton, peanuts, soybean, winter wheat, rice and corn. Crop losses due to ozone total an estimated <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/tropospheric-ozone">79 million to 121 million tons, worth US$11 billion to $18 billion annually</a>.</p>
<p>Black carbon comes from burning wood, charcoal and crop residue, and is also in the soot from fossil fuel combustion in vehicles, especially diesel. It makes up a substantial portion of <a href="https://www.iqair.com/us/usa/new-york/new-york-city">PM2.5, the tiny particulate matter</a> in air that can penetrate <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/particulate-matter-and-health-fact-sheet">deep into the lungs</a>, contributing to respiratory and heart problems. Black carbon can also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0439.1">disrupt regional rainfall patterns</a>.</p>
<p>There are some types of aerosols that can lead to cooling, which means it takes time for the effect of carbon dioxide reductions to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1554-z">catch up with the aerosol decreases</a> when phasing out coal and internal combustion engines. The rapid climate benefits of reducing short-lived climate pollutants thus also complement the slower but crucial climate benefits of decarbonization, providing much needed near-term relief from the onslaught of accelerating climate change we see around us.</p>
<h2>Solutions exist, and they aren’t rocket science</h2>
<p>These short-lived climate pollutants are <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/content/what-are-short-lived-climate-pollutants">tens to thousands of times</a> more powerful than carbon dioxide at warming the planet. The flip side is in their name: They are short-lived – they remain in the atmosphere for a few days up to a few years, considerably less time than carbon dioxide.</p>
<p>That means that reducing these pollutants can have an almost immediate impact on climate change and human health.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/science-resources">Research from the United Nations</a> shows that cutting short-lived climate pollutants now could reduce projected global warming by 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050, avoid millions of premature deaths from air pollution annually, and prevent millions of tons of annual crop losses, among other additional benefits for human and planetary well-being.</p>
<p>In short, cutting short-lived climate pollutants now alongside decarbonizing economies is the <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/science-resources">best shot</a> to meet the world’s <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">goal to limit global warming</a> to 1.5 C (2.7 F) – and avoid the most dangerous impact of climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531809/original/file-20230613-27-vd63a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Illustration shows impacts of short-lived climate pollutants including black carbon, methane, HFCs and tropospheric ozone. Impacts include harm to climate, crops, ecosystems and human health." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531809/original/file-20230613-27-vd63a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531809/original/file-20230613-27-vd63a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531809/original/file-20230613-27-vd63a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531809/original/file-20230613-27-vd63a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531809/original/file-20230613-27-vd63a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531809/original/file-20230613-27-vd63a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531809/original/file-20230613-27-vd63a9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The impacts of short-lived climate pollutants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/content/media-resources">Climate and Clean Air Coalition</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The good news is that scientists know exactly how to do it.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MeraHu8AAAAJ&hl=en">worked at NASA</a> for nearly 20 years, and I can tell you that cutting these emissions is not rocket science. There are practical, technically feasible and cost-effective ways to reduce short-lived climate pollutants. For example:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>A quick way to dramatically reduce methane is to patch up leaks in oil and gas pipelines – which actually <a href="https://theconversation.com/reducing-methane-is-crucial-for-protecting-climate-and-health-and-it-can-pay-for-itself-so-why-arent-more-companies-doing-it-160423">saves companies money</a>, too.</p></li>
<li><p>Hydrofluorocarbons, often used in refrigerators and air conditioning units, can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/cooling-conundrum-hfcs-were-the-safer-replacement-for-another-damaging-chemical-in-refrigerators-and-air-conditioners-with-a-treaty-now-phasing-them-out-whats-next-191172">replaced with alternatives</a> that have low or zero global warming potential.</p></li>
<li><p>Shifting to <a href="https://theconversation.com/boosting-ev-market-share-to-67-of-us-car-sales-is-a-huge-leap-but-automakers-can-meet-epas-tough-new-standards-203663">electric vehicles</a> and helping people in developing countries transition to <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/initiatives/household-energy">clean methods of cooking</a> instead of on open fires can reduce black carbon.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Delaying the cleanup raises risks and costs</h2>
<p>Mitigating short-lived climate pollutants in this decade can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2123536119">reduce damage due to climate change</a> over the next few decades, prevent biodiversity loss and slow melting in the Arctic. That can increase the chance of staying at least below 2 C (3.6 F) of warming through mid-century, cut the costs of meeting climate targets and achieve near-term benefits for humans and the Earth alike.</p>
<p>As wildfires rage, fueled by a warming climate, they underscore the disastrous consequences of ignoring science and continuing to power the world with fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Wildfires are not just a symptom of the worsening climate catastrophe, they are also a source that <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3066/the-climate-connections-of-a-record-fire-year-in-the-us-west/">amplifies ongoing warming</a>. I hope the latest fires are a wake-up call, not just for the Americans and Canadians who are struggling to breathe and facing the loss of homes and livelihoods, but for the world. Alongside decarbonization, we have another powerful tool in our arsenal – let’s use it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Drew Shindell has received funding from the Global Methane Hub initiative and the Clean Air Task Force. </span></em></p>So much pollution goes into the air today that even without wildfire smoke, 99% of the global population breathes unhealthy air.Drew Shindell, Professor of Climate Sciences, Duke UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1977232023-06-13T16:19:30Z2023-06-13T16:19:30ZLPG is a fossil fuel. Experts explain why it’s still Africa’s best option for cleaner, greener cooking (for now)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509207/original/file-20230209-16-uj7txl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Africa’s growing population desperately needs clean, modern energy in the home. Currently, <a href="https://www.stateofglobalair.org/data/#/air/map">more than 900 million people</a>, 85% of the region’s population, still rely on solid biomass fuel (like wood and charcoal) and kerosene for cooking. These energy sources <a href="https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/">are</a> highly polluting, inefficient and unsafe. </p>
<p>Many African countries are moving to develop scalable renewable energy resources to fill the gap. These include solar PV, wind, hydro, geothermal, ethanol and biogas resources. The International Energy Agency has <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2022#page=16">identified</a> liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as the most important interim clean cooking fuel during this transition. It’s <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01821-w">the most</a> practical, abundant and affordable among the current options.</p>
<p>LPG is a byproduct of oil and gas production and refining. Although it’s a fossil fuel, it’s <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/resources/liquefied-petroleum-gas-clean-cooking-fuel-developing-countries-implications-climate">one of the least damaging</a> for the climate. It <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340365583_Health_and_Climate_Impacts_of_Scaling_Adoption_of_Liquefied_Petroleum_Gas_LPG_for_Clean_Household_Cooking_in_Cameroon_A_Modeling_Study">burns</a> efficiently and has a high ratio of hydrogen to carbon, resulting in more energy for lower carbon emissions. Unlike wood and charcoal, LPG does not draw on forest reserves or contribute substantially to emissions of black carbon and methane, which are among the most powerful, short-acting climate warmers.</p>
<p>Time is fast running out to meet the <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/sustainable-development-goals/why-do-sustainable-development-goals-matter/goal-7">UN’s global Sustainable Development Goal 7</a> for clean, reliable, sustainable and affordable energy by 2030. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497914/original/file-20221129-14-6tlocv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497914/original/file-20221129-14-6tlocv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497914/original/file-20221129-14-6tlocv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497914/original/file-20221129-14-6tlocv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497914/original/file-20221129-14-6tlocv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=242&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497914/original/file-20221129-14-6tlocv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497914/original/file-20221129-14-6tlocv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/497914/original/file-20221129-14-6tlocv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
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</figure>
<p>This slow progress prompted the International Energy Agency in 2022 to set out what it calls the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-202">Sustainable Africa (energy) Scenario</a>. This envisages that by 2030 one third of homes would be using LPG, 10% electricity, 10% biogas and 6% alcohol fuels. This leaves 41% still using solid biomass, but on more efficient, cleaner stoves.</p>
<p>But the acceleration required to reach even these projections is staggering. Clean cooking access in sub-Saharan Africa needs to improve around 15 times faster over the 2022-2030 period than it has before. </p>
<p>As experts on the impact of air pollution on public health, we argue that realistically, for the next 10-20 years, LPG is the only cleaner fuel that ticks all the boxes. It is popular, meets household needs, is easy to store and transport, and – crucially – is available now in the quantities needed.</p>
<p>Many African governments have <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/15/4582">already</a> <a href="https://m.engineeringnews.co.za/article/initiative-aims-to-double-industry-supply-in-five-years-2021-10-15">prioritised</a> the rapid scale-up of LPG to secure cleaner cooking and forest protection, alongside active investment in renewables. So what’s the problem? Why aren’t more people in Africa using LPG when it’s cleaner and more efficient? </p>
<h2>Barriers to LPG adoption</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935116300020">examined</a> this question through a review of 44 studies from Africa, Asia and Latin America. We investigated factors influencing the adoption of LPG, biogas, alcohol fuels and solar cooking. For LPG we identified affordability, reliability and convenience of supply, and fears about safety, as being most important. </p>
<p>Another worrying factor that’s <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01821-w">emerged recently</a>, and frequently reported to us by African country partners, is resistance from influential donor countries and their development institutions to invest in LPG because it’s a fossil fuel. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505720/original/file-20230122-23029-9ne9pk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505720/original/file-20230122-23029-9ne9pk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505720/original/file-20230122-23029-9ne9pk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505720/original/file-20230122-23029-9ne9pk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505720/original/file-20230122-23029-9ne9pk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505720/original/file-20230122-23029-9ne9pk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505720/original/file-20230122-23029-9ne9pk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even when LPG is used for some cooking tasks, often the traditional wood stove is still in regular use.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Support from these sources is so important. They can ensure their investments are linked to policy for creating the right market conditions, such as a well-regulated cylinder re-circulation system and improved storage and transport infrastructure. These are prerequisites for securing the much larger private sector investment needed for rapid LPG market expansion. </p>
<h2>Addressing the barriers</h2>
<p><strong>Cost of LPG</strong></p>
<p>The cost of acquiring an LPG cylinder and stove <a href="https://cleancooking.org/binary-data/RESOURCE/file/000/000/578-1.pdf">can be prohibitive</a> for poorer homes. But cooking with LPG is <a href="https://europepmc.org/article/med/34140750">typically no more expensive</a> than <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921002762">buying</a> wood, charcoal or kerosene. </p>
<p>Multiple factors can influence LPG prices, though, so they can fluctuate considerably. For instance, the Ukraine conflict forced up the cost of LPG in <a href="https://www.knbs.or.ke/download/economic-survey-2023/#page=253">Kenya</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="zoomable=" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530933/original/file-20230608-25-g7bh09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530933/original/file-20230608-25-g7bh09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530933/original/file-20230608-25-g7bh09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530933/original/file-20230608-25-g7bh09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=220&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530933/original/file-20230608-25-g7bh09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530933/original/file-20230608-25-g7bh09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530933/original/file-20230608-25-g7bh09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
<p>Government policy can help consumers. For example, value added tax on cylinder refills in Kenya <a href="https://www.operanewsapp.com/ke/en/share/detail?news_id=8349ea7dcbccab737b55e3c4951ca429&news_entry_id=344475cf220701en_ke&open_type=transcoded&from=news&request_id=share_request">was halved</a> from 16% to 8% in July 2022 to encourage LPG use. And plans to reduce the VAT rate to zero were <a href="https://www.pd.co.ke/news/ruto-to-remove-taxes-on-cooking-gas-170754/">recently announced</a>.</p>
<p>A potentially important innovation for managing the costs of cooking with LPG – under evaluation by our team in Kenya and Tanzania – is “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921002762">pay-as-you-go</a>” technology that uses smart meters and mobile money, like M-Pesa in Kenya. This allows poor households to buy only the amount of gas they need each day.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505721/original/file-20230122-53755-na0ho1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505721/original/file-20230122-53755-na0ho1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505721/original/file-20230122-53755-na0ho1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505721/original/file-20230122-53755-na0ho1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505721/original/file-20230122-53755-na0ho1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505721/original/file-20230122-53755-na0ho1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505721/original/file-20230122-53755-na0ho1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A ‘pay-as-you-go’ LPG service in Kenya.</span>
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<p><strong>Reliability and safety of supply</strong></p>
<p>Reliable, conveniently local and safe supply of LPG requires investment (to help businesses grow) and well-enforced regulation (to ensure best practices). The key to well-functioning LPG markets is adoption of the cylinder re-circulation model. This is when the marketing companies that distribute and sell LPG are also responsible for the safety of their branded cylinders. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505722/original/file-20230122-8930-hfk1pt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505722/original/file-20230122-8930-hfk1pt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505722/original/file-20230122-8930-hfk1pt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505722/original/file-20230122-8930-hfk1pt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505722/original/file-20230122-8930-hfk1pt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505722/original/file-20230122-8930-hfk1pt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505722/original/file-20230122-8930-hfk1pt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Cameroon: cylinders are checked for damage before refilling.</span>
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</figure>
<p>Under this model, when customers need more gas, they exchange the empty cylinder for a full one that has been checked by the marketer, and replaced if damaged. Many African countries are now adopting this model. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0973082618302655">Cameroon</a> is one example where it has been working quite successfully for a number of years.</p>
<p><strong>Reluctance of donors to invest</strong></p>
<p>Concerns about LPG being a fossil fuel for clean cooking in Africa are currently misplaced, especially with progress towards meeting SDG-7 being so behind. There is <a href="https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/resources/liquefied-petroleum-gas-clean-cooking-fuel-developing-countries-implications-climate">mounting</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb501">evidence</a> that switching populations from solid biomass to LPG can bring substantial health benefits, while having minimal impact on climate warming, and protecting forest resources.</p>
<p>Policy should <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/jan/28/west-accused-of-climate-hypocrisy-as-emissions-dwarf-those-of-poor-countries">also be guided</a> by principles of environmental justice. Compared to wealthy countries, Africa’s historical climate warming contributions are minuscule. Cooking with biomass <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2022#page=123">is at least 60%</a> more greenhouse gas intensive than with LPG. If any population group has a just claim to use a fossil fuel that offers substantial health benefits as the world decarbonises, it is Africa’s poor.</p>
<p>The international community should move rapidly to support African governments in securing widespread adoption of LPG for clean cooking, alongside development of renewable alternatives that can progressively displace fossil-derived fuels. This “twin-track” approach can help make universal access to clean, efficient and modern energy by 2030 a reality, without threatening the world’s vital targets to limit global warming.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197723/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>LPG meets household needs, is easy to store and transport, and - crucially - is available now in the quantities needed.Nigel Bruce, Emeritus Professor of Public Health, University of LiverpoolDan Pope, Professor of Global Public Health, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2055832023-06-12T20:00:56Z2023-06-12T20:00:56ZThe case for compost: why recycling food waste is so much better than sending it to landfill<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529526/original/file-20230601-15-v2l0pv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1000%2C450&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/organic-waste-composting-on-soil-woman-1925546615">New Africa, Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most food and garden waste in Australia comes from homes. Australian households waste <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/environment/environmental-management/waste-account-australia-experimental-estimates/latest-release">3.1 million tonnes of food each year</a>. That’s more than five kilograms each household per week.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/environment/environmental-management/waste-account-australia-experimental-estimates/latest-release">Over half</a> of all household waste is food organics and garden organics, also known as “<a href="https://www.cleanup.org.au/fogo">FOGO</a>”. These scraps and clippings take up space in landfill and, when they rot, emit dangerous greenhouse gases. </p>
<p>The federal government’s <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/protection/waste/publications/national-waste-policy-action-plan">National Waste Policy Action Plan</a> aims to increase the organic waste recycling rate from 47% to 80% by 2030 and halve the amount sent to landfill. This won’t happen on its own - we need investment and action.</p>
<p>Food and garden waste can be captured and turned into compost. Composting is no longer just the domain of the home gardener or eco-warrior. It’s happening <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/protection/waste/food-waste/recovering-organic-waste">at commercial scale</a>, through services such as council collection from homes. </p>
<p>A federal government <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/protection/waste/food-waste/food-waste-for-healthy-soils-fund">fund</a> is building <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/plibersek/media-releases/reusing-western-australias-food-waste-improved-farming">new composting facilities</a> and supporting other food and garden organics recycling projects. The South Australian government has invested in council trials of <a href="https://www.greenindustries.sa.gov.au/reforming-household-waste">weekly green bin collection</a> and fortnightly rubbish collection. </p>
<p>But more must be done. Recycling food waste into high-quality compost is a win-win solution, for people and the planet. Here, we explain why.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Scrap Together is a community education program from EPA NSW helping councils harvest FOGO.</span></figcaption>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-government-delays-food-waste-recycling-bins-are-coming-to-your-kitchen-sooner-than-you-think-195734">Despite government delays, food waste recycling bins are coming to your kitchen sooner than you think</a>
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<h2>Compost is a winner for the climate</h2>
<p>When food rots in landfill, in the absence of oxygen, the process releases a potent greenhouse gas called methane. </p>
<p>Composting is different because the microbes can breathe. In the presence of oxygen, they transform waste into valuable organic matter without producing methane. They recycle organic carbon and nutrients into compost, which can be used to improve soil health and productivity. </p>
<p>This process also captures and stores carbon in the soil, rather than releasing it as carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the atmosphere. </p>
<p>In Australia, organics recycling (including food and garden organics, biosolids and tree wastes) saves an estimated <a href="https://www.aora.org.au/sites/default/files/uploaded-content/website-content/AORA%20Vision%202031%20Roadmap%20web.pdf">3.8 million tonnes of CO₂</a> from entering the atmosphere each year. That’s equivalent to planting 5.7 million trees or taking 877,000 cars off the road. </p>
<p>Soils can profit from compost because globally an estimated <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1706103114">116 billion tonnes</a> of organic carbon has been lost from agricultural soils. This has contributed to rising CO₂ levels in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Promisingly, compost can restore soil organic carbon while also boosting health and fertility. Compost improves soil structure and water retention. It’s also a source of essential nutrients that reduces the demand for costly fertilisers.</p>
<p>The opportunity presented by soils to draw down atmospheric CO₂ levels was brought to global awareness in the 2015 global Paris Agreement, via the <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/partnerships/4-1000-initiative-and-its-implementation">“4-per-mille” initiative</a>. </p>
<p>Translated from French, it means increasing the organic carbon stored in global soils by 0.04% each year (4 per 1000) would neutralise increases in atmospheric CO₂. In other words, CO₂ would remain constant rather than continue to increase. That would make a substantial contribution to mitigating climate change.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Introducing the international “4 per 1000” Initiative.</span></figcaption>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/soil-carbon-is-a-valuable-resource-but-all-soil-carbon-is-not-created-equal-129175">Soil carbon is a valuable resource, but all soil carbon is not created equal</a>
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<h2>Farming with precision</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00584-x">Our research</a> has investigated how compost can benefit global agriculture.</p>
<p>We found that in most cases where compost is applied as a generic product to agricultural land, the benefits are not fully realised. But if suitable composts and application methods were aligned with target crops and growth environments, crop yields can be increased and organic carbon in soils replenished. </p>
<p>We call this a “precision compost strategy”. Using a data-driven approach, we estimate global application of this strategy has potential to increase the production of major cereal crops by 96.3 million tonnes annually. This is 4% of current global production and twice Australia’s annual cereal harvest. </p>
<p>Of great relevance for Australia’s farms, precision compost has the strongest effects in dry and warm climates, boosting yield by up to 40%. We now need to develop this strategy for the specific needs of farms.</p>
<p>Compost has the potential to restore 19.5 billion tonnes carbon in cropland topsoil, equivalent to 26.5% of current topsoil soil organic carbon stocks in the top 20 cm.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1654104870402785280"}"></div></p>
<h2>Give FOGO a go-go</h2>
<p>The amount of food and garden waste in Australia is <a href="https://mraconsulting.com.au/laying-out-the-fogo-benefits-and-challenges/">growing</a> at a rate six times faster than Australia’s population and 2.5 times faster than GDP. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.cleanup.org.au/fogo">less than a third</a> of Australian households have access to food waste collection services. A national rollout has been pushed back from 2023 to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-01/food-waste-target-abandoned-by-federal-government-/101707458">end of this decade</a> so there is time to overcome some roadblocks. This includes uptake by community and high quality composting.</p>
<p>This waste stream offers a huge opportunity for landfill diversion and compost production. The cost benefit alone is compelling: councils can save up to A$4.2 million a year on landfill levies by diverting 30,000 tonnes of waste (based on A$74 to 140 per tonne of waste, with levies increasing).</p>
<p>Preventing food in the home from being wasted should be top priority. But for unavoidable food waste, turning it into high-quality compost makes perfect sense. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-can-go-in-the-compost-bin-tips-to-help-your-garden-and-keep-away-the-pests-156342">What can go in the compost bin? Tips to help your garden and keep away the pests</a>
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<p>us</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205583/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susanne Schmidt receives funding from Fight Food Waste CRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Robinson receives funding from Fight Food Waste CRC. </span></em></p>When food scraps and garden clippings are sent to landfill, it’s not just a waste of nutrients and water. The rotting organic matter trapped in landfill produces methane, a potent greenhouse gas.Susanne Schmidt, Professor - School of Agriculture and Food Science, The University of QueenslandNicole Robinson, Research Fellow, School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2059912023-05-23T18:54:17Z2023-05-23T18:54:17ZNZ’s gas problem: phasing out natural gas in homes demands affordable alternatives first<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527602/original/file-20230522-18529-dywymm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C5751%2C3785&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Do you have gas? It’s a personal question that may cause offence – and not always for the obvious reason. Because the way we choose to cook or heat our homes is increasingly becoming something of a sore point.</p>
<p>Since the Climate Change Commission issued <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/124626848/the-end-of-bbqs-or-a-load-of-hot-air-the-proposed-ban-on-natural-gas-connections">draft advice</a> recommending the banning of new gas installations by 2025, anyone with a gas hob or central heating has been put on notice. </p>
<p>With the government’s <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-strategies-for-new-zealand/gas-transition-plan/">gas transition plan</a> due for consultation this year, a long-term plan to phase out gas will require everyone affected to start thinking about the alternatives. But it may not be a simple transition. Moves to cancel the humble gas hob even ignited <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/19/gas-stove-culture-war-united-states">another culture war</a> in the United Sates. </p>
<p>On one side, some environmentalists and health researchers point to the role of gas in global warming and respiratory conditions like asthma. On the other, conservatives have called it another “woke” outrage. One celebrity chef even <a href="https://twitter.com/ChefGruel/status/1612598128951296000">taped himself to a stove</a> in protest.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, New York recently became the first US state to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/05/03/newyork-gas-ban-climate-change/">ban new residential natural gas</a> connections from 2026. This followed the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which introduced financial incentives for homeowners to switch from gas to electricity.</p>
<p>What are the arguments for a gas ban in Aotearoa New Zealand, then? Will it make a difference to our emissions profile? And are we likely to see something like the New York policy introduced?</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1613532810668539905"}"></div></p>
<h2>Big change for minimal gain?</h2>
<p>First the good news. When burned efficiently, natural gas – the stuff that’s piped into your home if you’re on the mains – produces 40% less carbon dioxide than coal, and 30% less than oil. </p>
<p>The amount of contaminants it contains (such as mercury and sulphur dioxide) is insignificant. It creates no soot or dust, and emits minimal particulates when it’s burned. Overall, it’s among the cleanest of the fossil fuels.</p>
<p>But natural gas is primarily methane – an active greenhouse gas which traps 86 times more atmospheric heat than the same amount of carbon dioxide over 20 years.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-nz-gets-serious-about-climate-change-can-electricity-replace-fossil-fuels-in-time-155123">As NZ gets serious about climate change, can electricity replace fossil fuels in time?</a>
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<p>A <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344750562_LNG_a_clean_fuel_-the_underlying_potential_to_improve_thermal_efficiency">recent study</a> of gas stoves in homes found the appliances can leak unburnt methane and nitrogen oxides even when turned off. This damages indoor air quality and creates more emissions than it saves in carbon dioxide from the cleaner burn.</p>
<p>Given the country’s commitment under the Climate Change Response (Zero Emissions) Amendment Act to <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/areas-of-work/climate-change/emissions-reduction-targets/greenhouse-gas-emissions-targets-and-reporting/#our-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reductions-targets">reduce net greenhouse gas emissions</a> to 50% below gross 2005 levels by 2030, the case against gas may seem clear. Just how urgent the situation is, however, is open to debate.</p>
<p>As of 2017, New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/gas/new-zealand-natural-gas/">natural gas consumption</a> was 0.1% of the global total (putting us 55th in the world). Electricity and heat production accounted for 13% of New Zealand’s gross carbon dioxide emissions in 2020, but domestic consumption of gas and production of CO₂ are relatively low. </p>
<p>By contrast, agriculture-based emissions are very high. Livestock produced <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory-1990-2020-snapshot/#:%7E:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20share%20of,of%20the%20world's%20gross%20emissions.">90% of gross methane emissions</a> in 2020.</p>
<p>With natural gas making up such a tiny portion of the country’s overall emissions, does ending home use really add up? Might a ban be seen as tokenism – or become the political hot potato it has in the US?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527603/original/file-20230522-29-p1gwya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527603/original/file-20230522-29-p1gwya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527603/original/file-20230522-29-p1gwya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527603/original/file-20230522-29-p1gwya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527603/original/file-20230522-29-p1gwya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527603/original/file-20230522-29-p1gwya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527603/original/file-20230522-29-p1gwya.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewable electricity alternatives like solar panels are still largely up to individuals to afford and install.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Invest in alternatives first</h2>
<p>In the end, it’s about priorities. But it’s unlikely the supply of natural gas to New Zealand homes can end soon. The Climate Change Commission’s <a href="https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/advice-for-preparation-of-emissions-reduction-plans/2023-draft-advice-to-inform-the-strategic-direction-of-the-governments-second-emissions-reduction-plan-april-2023/">2023 draft advice</a> recommends the government introduce “targeted support” to help lower-income households replace gas infrastructure (perhaps similar to what is proposed in the US).</p>
<p>This in turn will require significant investment in the electricity sector first. As many have witnessed first-hand, the country’s electricity infrastructure can’t always withstand extreme weather events. The thought of going without hot food or water, especially in winter, might make one think twice about ditching gas.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-gabrielle-how-microgrids-could-help-keep-the-power-on-during-extreme-weather-events-199665">Cyclone Gabrielle: how microgrids could help keep the power on during extreme weather events</a>
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<p>Yes, sustainable and renewable sources of power are essential in the long term. But while there are alternatives to relying on an unreliable national grid, those who want to install solar panels and battery storage have to pay from their own pockets. </p>
<p>Moving off-grid is a slow process, too, even for for those who can afford it. And it achieves only incremental change in the wider energy system. Given the marginal reduction in overall emissions from a move away from natural gas, reliable alternatives must be in place first. </p>
<p>Grants to support individuals and communities looking to develop local micro-power generation (such as solar and wind turbines) will reduce demand on overstretched infrastructure. The same applies for hydrogen fuel cells for housing when these are launched commercially. </p>
<p>We need to put the means to develop alternative sources of power in place first, then phase out natural gas. Not before.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205991/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Tookey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Domestic use of natural gas is a minimal contributor to overall greenhouse emissions. There should be no rush to ban it before better, cheaper options are in place.John Tookey, Professor of Construction Management, Auckland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2059412023-05-19T15:31:08Z2023-05-19T15:31:08ZMethane must fall to slow global heating – but only 13% of emissions are actually regulated<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527225/original/file-20230519-25-zvvx4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Methane leaks across oil and gas supply chains are speeding up climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gas-flare-oil-refinery-kimanissabahmalaysia-35-652862944">Hkhtt HJ/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Methane – a potent greenhouse gas and the second biggest driver of global warming after carbon dioxide (CO₂) – had its moment in the spotlight in 2021. Over 100 countries signed on to <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-a-global-methane-pledge-is-great-but-only-if-it-doesnt-distract-us-from-co-cuts-171069">the Global Methane Pledge</a> to cut emissions by 30% compared to 2020 levels by 2030. </p>
<p>This is a useful goal, but our <a href="https://authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S2590332223001951">new research</a> shows that something is still missing: stringent policies to eliminate methane emissions.</p>
<p>Our study is the first global review of methane policies which have been adopted across the world since the 1970s. It reveals that only around 13% of man-made methane emissions from the biggest sources (agriculture, energy and waste) is regulated by policies capable of controlling and preventing them. </p>
<p>This falls to 10% if we take a conservative view of the total emissions and regions covered by specific policies and whether they have been fully or partially implemented. </p>
<p>These policies may mandate companies to find and fix methane leaks, install equipment which can capture emissions, charge them for every unit of methane released or reward them for making use of methane, like extracting biogas from rotting food and other organic waste. Our study showed that the majority (70%) of policies have been adopted in the US and Europe.</p>
<p>Methane is over 80 times more powerful in trapping heat in Earth’s atmosphere than CO₂ but lasts for a much shorter time. Since methane in the air breaks down within about a decade (compared to centuries for CO₂), phasing out emissions could rapidly reduce the rate at which the planet is heating. </p>
<p>For any hope of meeting global climate targets, deep methane reductions are needed immediately. Our research shows that countries which have committed to deep cuts must now expand and strengthen policies for eliminating their emissions. The remaining countries should step up their efforts on methane too. </p>
<h2>Regulation varies by sector</h2>
<p>We systematically examined policies which have been introduced in 79 countries to reduce methane emissions across farming, solid and liquid waste management and the energy sectors (including the extraction, transportation and consumption of fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas). </p>
<p>Motivations for regulating methane varied. Not only does the gas contribute to climate change, but it can also generate tropospheric ozone – a harmful air pollutant. Methane is also a safety hazard if its concentration in the air reaches an explosive range (5-15%). </p>
<p>But if it is captured, methane becomes a source of energy as the major component of natural gas. And so regulating methane, for example by incentivising the capture of methane from coalbeds, can be cheap and useful. </p>
<p>How effective such policies have been is far from clear though, as countries do not tend to quantify their emissions using direct measurements.</p>
<p>Regulations are more frequently used to address fossil (oil, gas and coal) rather than biogenic (livestock, solid and liquid waste) sources of methane. In fact, 41% of all policies targeted methane from coal mines and oil refineries, compared with 25% for farms and landfills. </p>
<p>Taxes and charges, on the quantities of waste for example, are more common for regulating biogenic sources whereas financial incentives, like feed-in tariffs for electricity generated from captured coal mine methane, are more frequently used in fossil methane policies.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of a landfill with two rubbish trucks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527230/original/file-20230519-27-j85mbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527230/original/file-20230519-27-j85mbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527230/original/file-20230519-27-j85mbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527230/original/file-20230519-27-j85mbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527230/original/file-20230519-27-j85mbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527230/original/file-20230519-27-j85mbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527230/original/file-20230519-27-j85mbs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rotting waste is a major source of methane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/garbage-truck-unloads-rubbish-landfill-waste-2234855297">Maksim Safaniuk/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Policies targeting methane emissions from the oil and gas sector tend to be more stringent than those targeting coal mines. Similarly, policies targeting methane emissions from solid and liquid waste are more stringent than those addressing livestock emissions. </p>
<p>These divergent approaches to regulating different methane sources may be the result of opposition from the fossil fuel and agricultural industries. The relative importance of these industries to national and regional economies and energy and food supply may also explain why government regulation has so far proved inadequate.</p>
<h2>Where regulation must improve</h2>
<p>More stringent policies and a consistent approach for quantifying how much methane is being emitted from each source will be key to bringing regulation in line with global commitments. </p>
<p>Improving the monitoring of methane emissions is particularly important for enabling deeper cuts. Historically, methane emissions have been difficult and costly to measure, partly because it is an invisible gas and compared to CO₂, only minor emissions cause substantial warming. </p>
<p>However, methane reduction is still often perceived by policymakers as a choice rather than a necessary complement to ongoing decarbonisation efforts focused on CO₂.</p>
<p>Within almost every sector there are major methane sources that have been largely overlooked. These include the digestive gases of cows and other livestock, methane from the ventilation shafts of coal mines, high-emitting sources in the oil and gas sector (so called super-emitters), and from abandoned mines and oil and gas wells. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three cows staring into a camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527229/original/file-20230519-25-y3jm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527229/original/file-20230519-25-y3jm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527229/original/file-20230519-25-y3jm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527229/original/file-20230519-25-y3jm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527229/original/file-20230519-25-y3jm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527229/original/file-20230519-25-y3jm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527229/original/file-20230519-25-y3jm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High-methane foods are enough on their own to drive warming past 1.5°C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/holstein-friesian-cows-staring-into-camera-1450278809">Helen Rickard/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the energy sector, emissions from non-operated joint ventures are particularly neglected by regulation. This is a type of business structure where a company owns an equity interest without assuming day-to-day operational control. </p>
<p>These are usually owned by major oil and gas companies, but operated by local partners – national oil and gas firms in developing countries are a prime example. Supply chains are another important source, particularly with internationally-traded commodities like liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coking coal used in steelmaking.</p>
<p>In the oil and gas sector, where methane may be more cost-effective to reduce because the captured gas could be monetised, global commitments like the Paris Agreement require the industry’s own emissions to fall alongside falling demand for fossil fuels across all economies. </p>
<p>As Dr Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/cop28-is-a-moment-of-truth-for-the-oil-and-gas-industry-s-efforts-on-climate">recently put it</a>, the next UN climate change conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates will be “a moment of truth” for both oil- and gas-rich countries and the industries exploiting these climate-damaging fuels.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maria Olczak consults for the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Balcombe has received funding from oil and gas companies, environmental NGOs and research councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andris Piebalgs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Major sources, like oil and gas ‘super-emitters’, are almost entirely neglected by regulations.Maria Olczak, PhD Candidate, School of Engineering and Materials Science, Queen Mary University of LondonAndris Piebalgs, Part-time Professor, Florence School of Regulation, European University InstitutePaul Balcombe, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Engineering and Renewable Energy, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2037812023-04-26T14:23:51Z2023-04-26T14:23:51ZReplacing methane with hydrogen to heat homes is a bad idea – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522747/original/file-20230425-16-tr4yt9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5888%2C3923&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/worker-set-central-gas-heating-boiler-707026189">Ronstik/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hydrogen is an energy-rich gas, which releases no carbon emissions when burned. It can be used in most equipment where fossil fuels such as natural gas (methane) or LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) are currently used. In your home, that might mean a gas boiler, heater, cooker or all three. </p>
<p>It can also power combustion-engine vehicles which might otherwise run on petrol. And it can generate enough heat for heavy industry processes such as <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/fortescue-lab-succeeds-in-green-iron-experiment-20230323-p5cuol">steelmaking</a>, which is overwhelmingly done by burning coal at present. </p>
<p>These qualities make hydrogen gas an attractive replacement for the fossil fuels driving climate change. But could (and should) it heat your home? </p>
<h2>How is hydrogen produced?</h2>
<p>Hydrogen is one of the most abundant elements on Earth but because it reacts so readily with other elements, there is very little pure hydrogen available (it’s only <a href="https://energies.airliquide.com/resources/planet-hydrogen-hydrogen#:%7E:text=Hydrogen%20is%20found%20in%20great,%2C%20which%20contains%20just%200.00005%25">0.00005% of the atmosphere)</a>. Instead, hydrogen must be extracted and stored.</p>
<p>If renewable electricity generated by wind, solar and other sources is used to separate hydrogen from water, it could create an entirely sustainable energy cycle. This is called “green” hydrogen but, at the moment, it accounts for only <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen">0.1% of global hydrogen production</a>. The infrastructure necessary to produce green hydrogen at scale hasn’t been built yet as there is <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-hydrogen-why-low-carbon-fuels-are-not-benefiting-from-high-fossil-fuel-prices-195774">insufficient incentive</a> to do that while it’s cheap and simple to make hydrogen using fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Most hydrogen currently made worldwide is extracted from fossil fuels, about half of it from methane and the rest from oil or coal. Extracting hydrogen from fossil fuels releases carbon. Only about <a href="https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Circular-Carbon-Economy-series-Blue-Hydrogen.pdf">1% of global hydrogen production</a> is subject to an industrial process known as carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS), which filters out most of the carbon <a href="https://h2sciencecoalition.com/blog/hydrogen-for-heating-a-comparison-with-heat-pumps-part-1/">(the current best capture rate is about 90%)</a> to create “blue” hydrogen. </p>
<p>The vast majority of hydrogen is labelled “grey”, where the carbon is simply emitted to the atmosphere. So while it may be clean at the point of use, hydrogen’s production is contributing to global heating.</p>
<h2>Should we use hydrogen in homes?</h2>
<p>While hydrogen has the potential to be a green substitute for fossil fuels, this is still very much a future prospect.</p>
<p>To decarbonise home heating and hot water, the UK’s recent <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-security-bill-factsheets/energy-security-bill-factsheet-low-carbon-heat-scheme#:%7E:text=The%20Chancellor's%202021%20Spring%20Statement">energy security bill</a> promoted heat pumps as a replacement for gas boilers. Most countries in Europe and North America have done the same. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An engineer adjusts wires in an open panel on the side of a large fan unit outside a house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522750/original/file-20230425-2111-kun9w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522750/original/file-20230425-2111-kun9w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522750/original/file-20230425-2111-kun9w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522750/original/file-20230425-2111-kun9w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522750/original/file-20230425-2111-kun9w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522750/original/file-20230425-2111-kun9w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522750/original/file-20230425-2111-kun9w7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=316&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heat pumps can run on renewable electricity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-technician-hand-using-measuring-equipment-1925378171">Eakrin Rasadonyindee/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Heat pumps work like a refrigerator in reverse, pushing heat into rather than out of a space. The reason heat pumps are so useful is that they can convert one unit of electricity into <a href="https://clade-es.com/blog/what-is-the-coefficient-of-performance-of-a-heat-pump/">two or more units of heat</a>, referred to as a coefficient of performance or COP of 2. By comparison, gas boilers have a COP of about 0.9. It’s even lower if they burn hydrogen, <a href="https://h2sciencecoalition.com/blog/hydrogen-for-heating-a-comparison-with-heat-pumps-part-1/">perhaps less than 0.5</a>.</p>
<p>The bill set a target of fitting <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/27/little-progress-made-on-energy-efficiency-in-uk-homes-report-finds">600,000 homes</a> with heat pumps each year by 2028. The UK Climate Change Committee (UKCCC), an independent body that advises the government, <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5802/cmselect/cmbeis/1038/report.html#:%7E:text=The%20CCC%20projects%2C%20in%20the,is%20new%20direct%20electric%20heating.">projects</a> that 52% of home heating will come from heat pumps by 2050. All of those homes will be progressively disconnected from the gas grid.</p>
<p>At the same time, households are being encouraged to become more energy-efficient by installing insulation in windows, walls and lofts. This could reduce the average energy demand for space heating by <a href="https://www.passivhaustrust.org.uk/UserFiles/File/Policy%20papers/2021.09.24%20PHT%20Retrofit%20Position%20Paper%20v1.4.pdf">as much as 75%</a> if retrofitted to <a href="https://passivhaustrust.org.uk/certification.php">Passivhaus standard</a> (an international benchmark for very low-energy construction).</p>
<p>Even tougher rules apply to new build homes. In Scotland, building regulations will prohibit the installation of gas boilers in homes <a href="https://www.eca.co.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/aug/scotland-to-ban-fossil-fuel-boilers">built after 2024</a> and legislation was recently passed to introduce a <a href="https://www.scottishhousingnews.com/articles/government-to-consult-over-scottish-equivalent-of-passivhaus-standard#:%7E:text=Passivhaus%20standards%20include%20eliminating%20thermal,two%20years%20of%20December%202022.">Scottish Passivhaus-equivalent standard</a>.</p>
<p>With fewer homes connecting to the gas grid and much lower energy demand for those that are connected in future, maintaining the national gas grid for domestic use seems wasteful. Maybe it’s time to think about turning off the gas for good.</p>
<h2>The gas grid</h2>
<p>A recent report by a government advisor known as the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1144529/hydrogen-champion-report.pdf">Hydrogen Champion</a> recommended blending up to 20% hydrogen into the gas grid, similar to how most petrol now has 10% ethanol blended in. This is listed in the report under the heading “Stimulate Demand” and it seems clear the aim is to encourage hydrogen production rather than reduce carbon emissions.</p>
<p>The report states:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Hydrogen blending alone could support up to approximately 5GW of hydrogen production near term and has the lowest risk profile of off-takers [potential buyers]. This significantly helps to make CCUS-enabled hydrogen projects investible during scale-up.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Domestic gas use is considered “low risk” because most householders simply don’t have an alternative. </p>
<p>In the short term, using any hydrogen for home heating would almost certainly increase carbon emissions because, as noted above, hydrogen has a lower COP than methane and the vast majority is produced from fossil fuels without CCUS.</p>
<p>In the longer term, hydrogen is much more likely to be used in transport and heavy industry than in houses. The report states that the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has “strongly emphasised the need to prioritise industrial consumers”. The UKCCC projects that only 5% of domestic heating will come from hydrogen and that will be predominantly as a <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Full-Report-Development-of-trajectories-for-residential-heat-decarbonisation-to-inform-the-Sixth-Carbon-Budget-Element-Energy.pdf">secondary supply for hybrid heat pumps</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A lorry with white cabin and blue wagon." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522749/original/file-20230425-22-v5rdtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522749/original/file-20230425-22-v5rdtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522749/original/file-20230425-22-v5rdtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522749/original/file-20230425-22-v5rdtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522749/original/file-20230425-22-v5rdtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522749/original/file-20230425-22-v5rdtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522749/original/file-20230425-22-v5rdtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hydrogen could fuel heavy goods vehicles which would otherwise need cumbersome batteries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/large-blue-truck-on-swedish-motorway-1670418880">SwedishStockPhotos/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://hydrogen-central.com/uk-hydrogen-added-britains-gas-supply-2025/#:%7E:text=Hydrogen%20is%20to%20be%20pumped,Gas%2C%20which%20owns%20the%20pipelines.">message</a> from UK gas network operators is that they are transitioning the gas grid to hydrogen, with work already underway planning the upgrades to regional pipelines that will be required and for <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-65119400">pilot projects</a> with small groups of houses. Boiler manufacturers are also promoting hydrogen-ready boilers that can be installed now in anticipation of 100% hydrogen supply. </p>
<p>But transitioning the entire gas grid to hydrogen would be an enormous task. More likely is that some hydrogen hubs develop in places with surplus renewable energy generation to produce green hydrogen, alongside high industrial demand and a high density of buildings where heat pumps and retrofitting will be difficult.</p>
<h2>What should households do?</h2>
<p>You have no control over what sort of gas gets delivered through the pipes to your house. If an 80:20 blend is introduced, it will be to stimulate business investment in the production of hydrogen, and it will have to first be deemed safe for all existing household uses such that no modifications are required. In the longer term heavy industry and transport will suck up the vast majority of hydrogen produced.</p>
<p>What you can do, if you can afford it or are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/find-energy-grants-for-you-home-help-to-heat">eligible</a> for government support, is insulate your home and install a heat pump, which will immediately reduce your household carbon emissions as well as save you money. </p>
<p>As for hydrogen, forget about it.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ran Boydell has received funding from the UK and Scottish governments for research on sustainable buildings and is a director of the Scottish Ecological Design Association (SEDA).</span></em></p>The government is considering blending hydrogen into the UK gas network.Ran Boydell, Associate Professor in Sustainable Development, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034482023-04-20T11:54:34Z2023-04-20T11:54:34ZNitrous oxide: why the environment isn’t amused about laughing gas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520202/original/file-20230411-24-99jttk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4578%2C2577&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-england-august-2014-nitrous-oxide-1404940571">Lenscap Photography/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A young man breathes deeply from a gas-filled bag. He begins to feel a pleasurable sensation “particularly in the chest and extremities” before dancing around and then collapsing in a heap. A few minutes later he comes to and is consumed by a fit of giggles. The young man is a chemist, living in Bristol and his <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/b09hs6wr">name is Humphry Davy</a>. The year is 1799 and Davy has just discovered the euphoric effects of nitrous oxide (N₂O), which he names “laughing gas”. </p>
<p>Word soon spread through high society and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-20/laughing-gas-parties-discovery-of-anaesthesia/10811060">laughing gas parties</a> became all the rage. But, despite its pain relief properties, it wasn’t adopted in medical settings until the middle of the 19th century.</p>
<p>Now the UK government is considering outlawing possession of the gas over concerns about health risks <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-65088226">when used as a recreational drug</a>. But it is overlooking another threat it poses to humanity: it is a powerful greenhouse gas. </p>
<p>N₂O is one of the most popular recreational drugs among 16-24 year olds but <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/publication-of-acmds-review-on-nitrous-oxide">heavy use can cause spine damage</a>. </p>
<p>The UK government has made it clear its intention to make possession of the gas a criminal offence. Meanwhile others, including former government drug advisor David Nutt, see criminalisation as <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/professor-david-nutt-former-government-adviser-says-alcohol-is-most-dangerous-drug-11909379">an overreaction</a>. The gas is now used in rocket fuel, as a aerosol propellant – particularly for whipped cream – as well anaesthetic gas and air. So banning private possession won’t do enough to tackle the damage it is doing to our planet.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519871/original/file-20230406-1028-29woex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519871/original/file-20230406-1028-29woex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519871/original/file-20230406-1028-29woex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519871/original/file-20230406-1028-29woex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519871/original/file-20230406-1028-29woex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519871/original/file-20230406-1028-29woex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519871/original/file-20230406-1028-29woex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519871/original/file-20230406-1028-29woex.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taking laughing gas in the house of a tooth-drawer, 1820.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wellcome Collection</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Like carbon dioxide (CO₂), N₂O can <a href="https://publishing.rcseng.ac.uk/doi/full/10.1308/rcsbull.2020.147">absorb infrared radiation from the Sun</a>, but its structure allows it to do so much more efficiently. Its potency as a greenhouse gas is about <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2780-0">300 times that of carbon dioxide</a>. So the cans of whipped cream and the small canisters containing the gas, (known as whippits to recreational users) have a <a href="https://files.core.ac.uk/pdf/2612/81514516.pdf">surprising ‘carbon footprint’</a>. Each can or canister contains just eight grams of N₂O. But when released into the atmosphere this has the equivalent effect of 2.4 kilograms of CO₂, which is about the amount emitted from driving an SUV for ten miles.</p>
<h2>No laughing matter</h2>
<p>The concentration of N₂O <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-atmospheric-concentrations-greenhouse-gases">in the atmosphere is very low</a>, (335 parts per billion) about a thousand times lower than CO₂. But, like CO₂, N₂O levels are on the rise. Concentrations are about 20% higher than during Humphry Davy’s time. </p>
<p>Despite these low concentrations, N₂O’s potency means it still has a significant effect on the climate. <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11092019/nitrous-oxide-climate-pollutant-explainer-greenhouse-gas-agriculture-livestock/">It is the third most damaging greenhouse gas</a> and is responsible for about 6% of the warming we are observing today (<a href="https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/methaneuk/chapter01.pdf">methane is the second, accounting for 10%</a>).</p>
<p>Unfortunately N₂O’s impact doesn’t stop there. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1176985">N₂O is now the main threat to the ozone layer</a> since CFC chemicals were banned in the 1980s. Once N₂O is released at ground level it takes about 100 years to migrate to the stratosphere (the second layer of Earth’s atmosphere) where UV light catalysis its conversion to nitric oxide (NO). This then reacts with ozone (O₃), forming another pollutant - nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and molecular oxygen (O₂) - which already makes up 21% of the atmosphere.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sTvqIijqvTg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>Whippits are a relatively minor source of human emissions of nitrous oxide, the vast majority (some 70%) <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00265-3">comes from agriculture</a>. <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0kb4505k">Nitrogen-based fertilisers</a>, critical for farming, break down into a variety of nitrogen compounds, including N₂O. Other sources include the burning of fossil and biomass fuels, emissions from industry (particularly in the <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17847387/">manufacturing of nylon</a>), and release while being used as an <a href="https://anaesthetists.org/Home/Resources-publications/Environment/Nitrous-oxide-project">anaesthetic in clinical settings</a>.</p>
<h2>The solution</h2>
<p>Many of these N₂O emissions can be tackled through simple changes of behaviour. Applying more sparing amounts of fertilisers at the right part of the growing season means more fertilisers being taken up by plants. As a result less fertiliser is left in the soil where it runs off into water ways and breaks down into N₂O. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, in clinical settings, huge amounts of N₂O are released through leaky valves, expired stock and <a href="https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/thieves-steal-nitrous-oxide-oxygen-17967243">theft for recreational use</a>. Some parts of the NHS are already putting systems in place to <a href="https://sustainablehealthcare.org.uk/what-we-do/sustainable-specialties/anaesthetics/nitrous-oxide-project">tackle many of these issues</a> through upgrading gas manifolds, security and stock control. </p>
<p>N₂O is one of the gases targeted for reductions in international agreements, such as the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dev/1923119.pdf">Kyoto Protocol</a> and <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/rise-in-greenhouse-gas-concentrations-jeopardizes-paris-agreement-temperature-targets">Paris agreement</a>, so its reduction does form part of government targets to reduce emissions of warming gases. And there are alternatives to N₂O for clinical and medical use as well as in food industries. </p>
<p>Anaesthetists can choose from many other anaesthetics and analgesics, the nylon industry is moving away from processes that release the gas. And if you are tempted by strawberries and cream, use some elbow grease to whip up a bowl instead of turning to the aerosol can.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Lorch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People are becoming more aware of the health risks of laughing gas, but fewer people realise it’s a potent greenhouse gas.Mark Lorch, Professor of Science Communication and Chemistry, University of HullLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2014592023-03-10T03:27:04Z2023-03-10T03:27:04ZCan seaweed save the world? Well it can certainly help in many ways<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514619/original/file-20230310-14-t58ci.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cayne Layton</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Seaweed is increasingly seen as a solution to many of the world’s most pressing problems. Interest in farming seaweed has exploded. </p>
<p>There’s such a wide range of applications, from fertilisers to foods, bioplastics, textiles, supplements and carbon sinks. It’s hard to think of another substance with so much potential. </p>
<p>Can seaweed save the world? It’s a question being posed this weekend at the WOMADelaide world music festival <a href="https://www.womadelaide.com.au/lineup/the-planet-talks">Planet Talks</a>. I’m on the panel and the answer, I think, is a definite maybe! </p>
<p>I’ve studied seaweeds as ecosystem health indicators for years. I became interested in using seaweed to clean up nutrients in our coastal systems. Now at the Marine Bioproducts Cooperative Research Centre, my eyes have opened to the huge diversity of Australian seaweeds and their many amazing applications.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ever-heard-of-ocean-forests-theyre-larger-than-the-amazon-and-more-productive-than-we-thought-190534">Ever heard of ocean forests? They're larger than the Amazon and more productive than we thought</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A marvelous multitool</h2>
<p>Seaweed is a catch-all term for marine plants. These are the primary producers in our marine and aquatic systems. </p>
<p>In many ways, they’re as diverse as the plants you see on land. Many are foundational species that act like forests underwater, but they come in many different types and forms. We group them into reds, greens and browns. And they have very different properties, just like terrestrial plants, depending on the species and where they live.</p>
<p>It’s true that seaweed has huge potential to address some of the most wicked problems facing the planet. If we were to think of seaweed as one of the tools in the toolbox, they’d be the multitool or Swiss army knife with a wide range of potential applications, including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>reducing methane production in cows and other ruminants such as goats and sheep </p></li>
<li><p>capturing and storing carbon dioxide</p></li>
<li><p>boosting protein and nutrients in food products </p></li>
<li><p>providing extra health benefits in new therapeutics </p></li>
<li><p>soaking up excess nutrients in wastewater </p></li>
<li><p>creating new materials such as bioplastics, packaging and textiles.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Another thing that blows me away with seaweed is that one plant can actually tap into several of these market opportunities. So you could be growing it as a nutraceutical supplement, a fibre for textiles and as a fertiliser, all at once. That’s really exciting because it’s not something many of our traditional farming approaches have been able to do.</p>
<h2>Not without its challenges</h2>
<p>Early studies suggested that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-021-00773-9">scaling up seaweed aquaculture</a> could make a big difference to climate change by capturing carbon dioxide emissions. But it turns out it’s <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jpy.13249">not as simple</a> as that. </p>
<p>Verifying whether the carbon dioxide fixed by seaweeds through photosynthesis can be locked up long-term is extremely complex. There are differences between species and ecosystems. And research has to factor in the interactions of the various organisms that live on and around seaweed communities, as well as the prevailing environmental conditions. </p>
<p>In some situations, seaweed ecosystems <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jpy.13249">produce more carbon</a> than they can <a href="https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/79/3/585/6525671?login=true">capture</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/kelp-wont-help-why-seaweed-may-not-be-a-silver-bullet-for-carbon-storage-after-all-178018">Kelp won't help: why seaweed may not be a silver bullet for carbon storage after all</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, seaweeds may still have a contribution in this space through carbon offsets. As they can be used to make new products to replace other materials that have larger carbon footprints. This includes new foods, new materials such as fabrics, and new building supplies designed to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23308249.2022.2048792">store carbon in the long term</a>.</p>
<h2>Cutting methane emissions and other benefits</h2>
<p>The native Australian red seaweed <em>Asparagopsis</em> has been shown to markedly reduce methane production in cattle, when <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652622001421">added to their diet</a>.</p>
<p>Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming. It accounts for <a href="https://www.epa.gov/snep/agriculture-and-aquaculture-food-thought">20-30% of all greenhouse gas emissions</a>, much of it associated with livestock production.</p>
<p>Any significant reduction in methane production “would have a rapid and significant effect on atmospheric warming potential”, according to a <a href="https://www.epa.gov/snep/agriculture-and-aquaculture-food-thought">report</a> from the US Environmental Protection Agency. </p>
<p>At the most recent global climate meeting, COP26, it was clearly noted that current national climate commitments will not be enough to avoid exceeding 1.5°C of warming. So we need new and radical solutions. If <em>Asparagopsis</em> farming lives up to its potential, it could make a truly meaningful difference.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514617/original/file-20230310-440-eiamcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man holds a glass flask containing the seaweed Asparagopsis taxiformis on a beach, with waves crashing on the shore behind" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514617/original/file-20230310-440-eiamcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514617/original/file-20230310-440-eiamcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514617/original/file-20230310-440-eiamcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514617/original/file-20230310-440-eiamcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514617/original/file-20230310-440-eiamcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514617/original/file-20230310-440-eiamcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514617/original/file-20230310-440-eiamcv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feeding cattle the red seaweed Asparagopsis taxiformis reduces their methane emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos.aap.com.au/">Russell Freeman/AAP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Seaweed can improve intensive agriculture too. As highly effective <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960852423002560">biostimulants</a>, they provide viable alternatives to synthetic fertilisers. </p>
<p>Seaweed can also be used to recover and recycle excess nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphates from wastewater. So when you have large human populations, intensive land-based farming or aquaculture facilities releasing nutrients into our coastal systems, can be a very effective way to respond to that. Seaweed farms can do better when grown in areas with higher nutrient levels, such as <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13657300701202767">alongside fed finfish production facilities</a>.</p>
<p>Human health and medical benefits extend beyond commercially viable and tasty alternative protein sources. Some seaweeds can contain 10-30% protein, which is comparable with soy protein levels. But they also have the added natural advantage of relatively high levels of long-chain omega-3 fatty acids (brain food), which are <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10311-022-01520-y">not naturally found in terrestrial food sources</a>.</p>
<p>Increasingly we are finding seaweeds with anticoagulant, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, anticarcinogenic and antiviral properties. Several types of kelp have been shown to promote a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780123876690000028">beneficial</a> <a href="https://ift.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12441">immune response</a>. </p>
<p>Seaweed supplements in animal feeds have also been shown to offer advantages such as improved gut health and digestive efficiency. This has the potential to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01652176.2022.2061744">markedly improve yield</a> and other outcomes on farms.</p>
<h2>Let’s get on with it</h2>
<p>There are still challenges to overcome, and there may be more issues to contend with down the track. But if we support coordinated and appropriate research and development, focused on fast-tracking the benefits that seaweed has to offer, Australian seaweed really can play a big part in saving the world.</p>
<p>It’s worth mentioning here, several initiatives and funding bodies that are currently supporting seaweed research and development in Australia. Most notably the <a href="https://mbcrc.com/">Marine Bioproducts Co-operative Research Centre (MBCRC</a>), the <a href="https://blueeconomycrc.com.au/">Blue Economy CRC</a>, <a href="https://agrifutures.com.au/">AgriFutures Australia</a>, the <a href="https://www.frdc.com.au/">Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC</a>) and the <a href="https://www.seaweedalliance.org.au/">Australian Sustainable Seaweed Alliance (ASSA</a>). </p>
<p>And it’s really encouraging to see broader community engagement in this conversation including the panel discussion at the <a href="https://www.womadelaide.com.au/lineup">WOMADelaide Festival</a> <a href="https://www.womadelaide.com.au/lineup/the-planet-talks">Planet Talks</a> series. It’s great to have a chance to talk openly about the challenges while showcasing the opportunities. It’s complicated, but it’s exciting. Let’s get on with it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catriona Macleod is a program leader in the Marine Bioproducts CRC (MBCRC) which actively supports research and development projects in the seaweed industry and is on the board of the Australian Sustainable Seaweed Alliance (ASSA). She has previously received funding from the Australian Co-operative Research Centres (CRC), Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC) and Agrifutures to support seaweed related research. She is affiliated with The Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania. </span></em></p>Seaweed is in the spotlight for so many reasons. It all sounds too good to be true. So can this wonder weed live up to expectations and fulfill its promise to save us from ourselves?Catriona Macleod, Professor, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1994642023-02-09T13:34:20Z2023-02-09T13:34:20ZNew Zealand wants to tax cow burps – here’s why that’s not the best climate solution<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508741/original/file-20230207-21-8vqj9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C22%2C4900%2C3506&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cows generate methane as they digest their food. It's a potent greenhouse gas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/austria-salzkammergut-cow-on-meadow-looking-at-royalty-free-image/1125227459">Westend61 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>New Zealand, where agriculture is one of the largest contributors to climate change, is proposing <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/pricing-agricultural-emissions-report-under-section-215-of-the-climate-change-response-act-2002/?itid=lk_inline_enhanced-template">a tax on cow burps</a>. The <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/can-you-tax-a-cows-burps-new-zealand-will-be-the-first-to-try">reason</a> seems simple enough: Cows release methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and New Zealand has a goal of reaching net-zero emissions by midcentury. Right now, <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory-1990-2020-snapshot/">the country’s effects on climate change</a> come roughly equally from carbon dioxide and methane.</p>
<p>Worldwide, <a href="https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/">150 governments have committed</a> to cut methane emissions, both from agriculture and by cracking down on the largest source – fugitive leaks from natural gas pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure.</p>
<p>But is methane from cows really as bad for the climate as methane from fossil fuels? And given its shorter lifetime in the atmosphere, is methane as bad as carbon dioxide?</p>
<p>The answers involve renewable resources and the so-called circular economy. Understanding the effectiveness of different strategies is important as countries plan their routes to net-zero emissions, which is necessary for the world to stop further climate change.</p>
<p>Moreover, emissions must not just reach net-zero, they must stay there.</p>
<h2>Targeting methane</h2>
<p>I am a climate scientist who has spent decades studying global warming. Evidence has clearly established that <a href="https://theconversation.com/2022s-supercharged-summer-of-climate-extremes-how-global-warming-and-la-nina-fueled-disasters-on-top-of-disasters-190546">human activities</a> are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">causing climate change</a>. Humans have released so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere since beginning to burn fossil fuels in the 1800s that the accumulated gases are now trapping significantly more heat than is released to space. The result is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-not-to-solve-the-climate-change-problem-187222">global warming</a>.</p>
<p>Some carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. But methane, the second-most important greenhouse gas, lingers in the atmosphere for only <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/methane-and-climate-change">about a decade</a> before being oxidized to form carbon dioxide.</p>
<p>Although methane doesn’t last as long, it is many times more potent than carbon dioxide at warming the climate. That’s why it’s a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/11/11/1136061205/biden-methane-emissions-epa-rules-climate-change-gas-prices">target for policymakers</a>.</p>
<p>However, its effects can be misjudged. A <a href="https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator">rough equivalence</a> of the heating from methane to that of carbon dioxide is often used to estimate its effects on the climate, but the number varies by the time frame. </p>
<p>The global warming potential typically used for methane is <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials">28 times that of carbon dioxide for a 100-year period</a>. But a spike in methane has no effect after about 30 years because the methane is well gone by then. So, methane’s effects on temperature are greatly overstated over centuries, while considerably understated over the first 20 years. Indeed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00226-2">scientists</a> have argued that short-lived climate pollutants such as methane should be split out from long-lived ones such as carbon dioxide when making policy. </p>
<p>Moreover, biogenic sources of carbon, such as from trees or cattle, are renewable, while fossil fuel sources are not.</p>
<p><iframe id="tM5PF" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tM5PF/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Biogenic or fossil?</h2>
<p>Biogenic methane comes from all sorts of livestock – cattle, sheep, goats, deer and even buffalo – and it has a <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/guides/methane-and-other-major-greenhouse-gases">circular life</a>.</p>
<p>It originates as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that is taken up by grass and other plants during photosynthesis. Those plants are eaten by animals and then methane is burped out during digestion, or released as flatulence or through decaying manure. Once released, methane stays in the atmosphere for about a decade before it becomes carbon dioxide and is taken up by plants again.</p>
<p>Some carbon is temporarily stored as meat, leather or wool, but it too is eventually recycled. The amount of methane from livestock would be stable were it not for rising demand for animal protein by the ever-increasing global population, leading to increasing livestock on farms.</p>
<p>Fossil fuels, on the other hand, have been in the Earth for millions of years. <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/methane-tracker-2020/methane-from-oil-gas">Fossil methane</a> is a waste product of coal mines, and also is extracted from shale and other underground deposits as natural gas. So-called fugitive emissions leak from pipelines and abandoned wells, and methane is often flared or vented directly into the atmosphere. There are also often major <a href="https://nexusmedianews.com/top_story/methane-cloud-spotted-over-new-mexico/">outbursts</a> from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/02/orphan-wells-infrastructure-law/">accidents</a> that can now be <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/methane-tracker-2021">tracked from satellite</a>. The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/04/1126562195/the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-stopped-leaking-but-the-methane-emitted-broke-rec">Nord Stream gas leak</a> in September 2022, <a href="https://sakerhetspolisen.se/ovriga-sidor/other-languages/english-engelska/press-room/news/news/2022-11-18-confirmed-sabotage-of-the-nord-stream-gas-pipelines.html">likely caused by sabotage</a>, reportedly leaked 500,000 tons of methane.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508753/original/file-20230208-17-pbe06v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Methane leaks were evident in 2019 satellite data from the Permian Basin, a large oil and gas field in Texas and New Mexico.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/nasa-built-instrument-will-help-to-spot-greenhouse-gas-super-emitters">Global Airborne Observatory/Carbon Mapper, University of Arizona/Arizona State University/NASA/JPL-Caltech</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While biogenic methane ultimately recycles the carbon dioxide that was its source a short time ago, fossil-sourced methane adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Studies have estimated that livestock is responsible for about one-third of global anthropogenic <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020">methane emissions</a>, while oil and gas operations represent about 63%.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean countries shouldn’t reduce biogenic methane, too. But the circular life of biogenic methane means that it should be considered separately from fossil methane when determining how to manage emissions to reach net zero by 2050. </p>
<h2>Implications for climate policies</h2>
<p>Many of the actions that governments take today under the guise of net-zero emissions risk passing the harms of climate change down to future generations rather than fundamentally solving the problem. Strategies that aim to reduce carbon from any source, as opposed to focusing on reducing the use of fossil fuels, are an example.</p>
<p>Right now, carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is generally treated interchangeably with carbon emissions from clearing forests or from methane emissions. Simple conversion factors, while convenient, mask complicated value judgments. For example, reducing methane may buy a decade of lower temperatures. Reducing fossil carbon, on the other hand, buys thousands of years. </p>
<p>There’s a similar argument to be made about carbon offsets involving trees. Trees take up carbon dioxide during photosynthesis and use the carbon to create wood, bark, leaves and roots. When the trees die or are used, the carbon is recycled as carbon dioxide. But while planting a new stand of trees may lock up some carbon, most only live for decades, and trees can get diseased or burn in forest fires, meaning they’re temporary. Recent research suggests that the value of trees as <a href="https://theconversation.com/satellites-detect-no-real-climate-benefit-from-10-years-of-forest-carbon-offsets-in-california-193943">carbon offsets</a> is greatly <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.930426">overestimated</a>. Further, planting <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/anne-salmond-nzs-climate-planting-asking-for-trouble">monoculture tree plantations</a> has drawbacks, especially with regard to biodiversity.</p>
<p>Emissions from burning coal, oil or natural gas can only be credibly offset by removing carbon dioxide and storing it in a form that <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2019.00009/full">will be stable</a> for many thousands of years.</p>
<p>Steadying or reducing livestock numbers and perhaps <a href="https://theconversation.com/feeding-cows-a-few-ounces-of-seaweed-daily-could-sharply-reduce-their-contribution-to-climate-change-157192">changing their feed</a> can stabilize their methane emissions. But to address the climate change crisis long term, I believe it is essential to recognize that the real solution for climate change is to cut emissions of fossil fuels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Trenberth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand is considering a plan to tax methane from cows. But while cows and cars both emit greenhouse gases, they don’t have the same impact over time.Kevin Trenberth, Distinguished Scholar, NCAR; Affiliate Faculty, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.