tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/minority-government-1556/articlesMinority government – The Conversation2024-03-23T22:26:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257762024-03-23T22:26:23Z2024-03-23T22:26:23ZTasmanians have voted in a hung parliament. What now?<p>The votes have been cast, but the helter skelter race to form the next Tasmanian government is just beginning. </p>
<p>While the results aren’t likely to be formalised for a couple of weeks, the island state’s voters <a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">haven’t given</a> Labor or the Liberals the 18 lower house seats needed to form a majority government. Overall, there has been a significant swing against the Liberal government, with the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) likely to be the main beneficiaries.</p>
<p>The Liberals are likely to secure the most seats in the next Tasmanian parliament. Premier Jeremy Rockliff <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-23/tas-state-election-results-live-blog/103619024">declared it</a> “the fourth consecutive win” for the Liberal party. </p>
<p>However, it remains to be seen whether they can secure the support of the three or four crossbenchers they will need to form government. What is clear is that negotiations to form the next Tasmanian government will take days, or even weeks. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-will-win-most-seats-in-tasmanian-election-but-be-short-of-a-majority-226398">Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority</a>
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<h2>What do the numbers show so far?</h2>
<p>The next parliament looks like it will have 14 Liberals, ten from Labor, four Greens, two from the JLN, and two independents – with the remaining three seats too close to call. The final numbers will be confirmed once preferences have been distributed.</p>
<p>As expected, many Tasmanians turned away from the two major parties. The primary vote swing against the Liberal government looks to be around 12%, but Labor appears to have gained less than 1% statewide. Almost 34% of voters opted for minor parties and independents. It was a particularly strong result for the Greens, who are in with a chance of picking up the final undecided seats in at least three electorates. </p>
<p>The JLN did not perhaps do as well as expected. Their lack of a “lead” candidate in each seat meant their candidates pulled votes away from each other. </p>
<p>Both of the MPs that defected from the Liberal Party last year – leading Rockliff to call the election – failed to win back their seats as independents.</p>
<p>All this means that the process of forming the next Tasmanian government is likely to be full of twists, turns and controversy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">The Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of 'cybersquatting'. It's the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online</a>
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<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>During the campaign, Labor and the Liberals both ruled out offering ministries or policy concessions to independents, the JLN or the Greens in exchange for their support. Now, they may find themselves backtracking on this and coming to the negotiating table instead.</p>
<p>The two leaders struck markedly different tones in their speeches late on Saturday night. </p>
<p>Rockliff claimed victory, stating bullishly that “Tasmanians have not voted for a change of government” and that he will seek to lead a Liberal minority government. This would represent the continuation of the unstable situation he called the election to escape, depending on how the crossbench views his assumption of the Liberals’ right to continued rule. Some of the Liberal party’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-14/jacqui-lambie-slams-liberals-over-website/103581992">tactics</a> during the campaign will not have endeared them to crossbenchers – particularly those from the JLN.</p>
<p>Rebecca White did not concede defeat, but was more conciliatory. She acknowledged that minority government is likely to be the norm in Tasmania, and said that “Labor will be ready to work with the parliament to implement our agenda […] if that is the will of the people”. </p>
<p>All this is a bit ambiguous – will she go to the crossbench and attempt to cobble together a coalition? There were rumours throughout the night from journalists’ sources that this was a possibility, but nothing has been confirmed yet. Given Labor may only end up with ten seats, they’d need the support of eight crossbenchers, which would be no mean feat. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-power-prices-to-chocolate-fountains-the-tasmanian-election-campaign-has-been-a-promise-avalanche-225783">From power prices to chocolate fountains, the Tasmanian election campaign has been a promise avalanche</a>
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<p>Adding a bit of spice to the mix is the potential for both leaders to face challenges from within their own ranks. </p>
<p>Labor’s very small improvement on its disappointing 2021 result will be a concern for party strategists, although there is no obvious successor to White. Rockliff claimed to be “just getting started”, but may well be privately concerned about former federal senator Eric Abetz’s barnstorming entry into Tasmanian parliament. </p>
<p>On the ABC’s coverage, Abetz was quick to point out the swing against the Liberals, and highlight the need for the party to review some of its policies and decision making. </p>
<h2>And for the nation?</h2>
<p>The 2024 Tasmanian election leaves us with a couple of things to think about ahead of the next federal election. </p>
<p>Tasmania’s new parliament is just the latest piece of evidence that two-party dominance <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/pdf/10.3316/informit.136288830999916">is waning</a> across Australia. </p>
<p>It’s true that Tasmania’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-21/hare-clark-electoral-system-explained/100062736">Hare-Clark voting system</a> makes it easier for independents and minor party candidates to get elected. However, the poor Liberal and Labor primary votes will worry federal party strategists who hoped that the 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-narrow-labor-win-and-a-teal-bath-all-the-facts-and-figures-on-the-2022-election-183359">Teal-bath</a> was a one off. </p>
<p>Certainly Bridget Archer and Andrew Wilkie will take comfort from the result where authentic, independent-minded candidates did well. It’s also clear that federal Labor have a lot of work to do in regional Tasmania if they are to retain Lyons and win back Braddon. </p>
<p>State election results haven’t always been the best predictor of federal election outcomes. However, that doesn’t mean that national party strategists will ignore what has happened in each of Tasmania’s five seats. </p>
<p>Another simmering issue is fixed parliamentary terms. Independents and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/2019Federalelection/Report/section?id=committees%2Freportjnt%2F024439%2F75701">minor parties</a> often argue that “snap” elections disadvantage them, because they lack the ongoing resources and campaign apparatus’ of the major parties. Rockliff’s early election call <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/parties-candidates-using-ai-to-help-them-gain-an-advantage-in-2024-tasmanian-election/news-story/1954579a993971d5e30d9de1a1c333da">caused grumbling</a> to this effect from independents and minor parties in Tasmania, who felt cheated out of time to prepare. </p>
<p>All other <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-tasmanians-head-to-the-polls-liberal-premier-peter-gutwein-hopes-to-cash-in-on-covid-management-159526">states and territories</a> have fixed term parliaments. If the fallout from the Tasmanian election sparks further debate on this topic, it might <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-24/why-would-we-want-four-year-fixed-term-elections/8736832">reignite</a> the issue at the federal level.</p>
<p>But for now, let’s hope that the major parties can swallow their pride, accept that they didn’t convince Tasmanians of the need for majority government and negotiate an agreement with the crossbench. Doing so would show respect for the democratic will of the Tasmanian people and demonstrate willingness to put aside the politics and get on with addressing the state’s many challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225776/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston is an appointed a member of two public advisory boards providing advice to the Tasmanian government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite a swing against it, the Liberal party has likely won the most seats, but will fall short of a majority. While the vote counting will continue, the political fight is now to form government.Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaRichard Eccleston, Professor of Political Science; Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2263982024-03-23T11:16:56Z2024-03-23T11:16:56ZLiberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority<p>Tasmania has five electorates that each return seven members using the proportional <a href="https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/info/Publications/HareClark.html">Hare-Clark system</a>, for a total of 35 seats. A quota is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%. In previous elections, the quota was 16.7%, with five members per electorate.</p>
<p>With over 60% of enrolled voters counted in all seats, the <a href="https://pollbludger.net/tas2024/Results/">Poll Bludger’s current projections</a> are that the Liberals will win 3.1 quotas in Bass, 3.7 in Braddon, 2.2 in Clark, 2.7 in Franklin and 3.0 in Lyons. Adding the likely wins in Braddon and Franklin gives them 15 of the 35 seats, three short of the 18 needed for a majority.</p>
<p>Labor is projected to win 2.3 quotas in Bass, 2.0 in Braddon, 2.4 in Clark, 2.2 in Franklin and 2.6 in Lyons, for a total of ten with a possible eleventh in Lyons. </p>
<p>The Greens are projected to win 1.0 quotas in Bass, 0.6 in Braddon, 1.6 in Clark, 1.6 in Franklin and 0.8 in Lyons, and would probably achieve a total of five with two more possible.</p>
<p>The Jacqui Lambie Network appears to have a strong chance to win the final seats in Bass and Braddon, and independent Kristie Johnston is likely to win the final seat in Clark. Former Labor MP David O'Byrne, running as an independent in Franklin, is in a contest with the Greens.</p>
<p>Overall vote share projections are currently 36.9% Liberals (down 11.8% since the 2021 election), 28.7% Labor (up 0.5%), 13.8% Greens (up 1.4%), 6.7% JLN (new) and 9.5% for independents.</p>
<p>Labor and the Greens appear to have performed a bit better than expected from pre-election polls and independents worse. This is likely to make it harder for the Liberals to form a government.</p>
<p><strong>Sunday morning update:</strong> Tasmanian <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/">analyst Kevin Bonham</a> expects three Liberals, two Labor, one Green and one JLN in Bass, three Liberals, two Labor, one JLN and one undecided contest between the Liberals and independent Craig Garland in Braddon, with the Liberals currently ahead.</p>
<p>In Clark, Bonham expects two Liberals, two Labor, one Green and independent Kristie Johnston, with the final seat a contest between Labor and the Greens, and the Greens ahead currently. In Franklin, three Liberals, two Labor, one Green and independent David O'Byrne are expected winners. In Lyons, three Liberals, two Labor, one Green, with the final seat a contest between Labor and JLN.</p>
<p>Adding this up gives a total outcome of 14 Liberals out of 35, ten Labor, four Greens, two JLN, two independents and three undecided. </p>
<p>Incumbent Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff last night <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-23/tas-state-election-results-live-blog/103619024">claimed victory</a>, but we need to wait for final results and for the decisions of the crossbenchers to be known before we know whether the Liberals have retained government in Tasmania.</p>
<h2>How does Hare-Clark work?</h2>
<p>Tasmania uses Robson rotation, where candidate names within a group are randomised for each ballot paper, to prevent one candidate from benefiting from being the top candidate from their group. This means parties can’t order their candidates.</p>
<p>For a formal vote, electors need to number at least seven preferences, but can keep numbering beyond seven if they wish. The process of formally electing candidates won’t start until all votes have been counted. </p>
<p>This is likely to occur on April 2, the <a href="https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/house-of-assembly/elections-2024/ways-to-vote/postal-voting.html">deadline for receipt</a> of postal votes.</p>
<p>Any candidate with more votes than the quota is declared elected, and their surplus votes will be passed on to remaining candidates at a fractional value. </p>
<p>After surpluses are distributed, remaining candidates will be excluded starting with the one with the lowest vote, and their votes transferred as preferences to remaining candidates. </p>
<p>This process continues until all seven vacancies in each electorate are filled. Owing to “exhausted” votes that have no preference between the final candidates, it is common for the last winners to have less than a quota.</p>
<h2>Labor gains Dunstan in SA state byelection</h2>
<p>With 48% of enrolled voters counted in the Liberal-held South Australian <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunstan-by-election-2024">Dunstan state byelection</a>, Labor has defeated the Liberals by a 52.9–47.1 margin, a 3.4% swing to Labor since the March 2022 state election. This seat was previously held by former Liberal premier Steven Marshall. This is a government gain from an opposition at a byelection.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 40.0% Liberals (down 6.7%), 32.3% Labor (down 2.9%), 22.4% Greens (up 8.8%) and 3.3% Animal Justice (new).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226398/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hours into the count in the Tasmanian election, the state can expect a hung parliament. Meanwhile, Labor is succeeding in a South Australian state byelection.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257832024-03-20T19:04:17Z2024-03-20T19:04:17ZFrom power prices to chocolate fountains, the Tasmanian election campaign has been a promise avalanche<p>The billboards are fading in the harsh sun. Antony Green is doing his vocal warm-up exercises. The 2024 Tasmanian election campaign is almost done and it’s now over to the voters. </p>
<p>The five-week campaign has been largely uninspiring but not without notable moments, from wildcard independents to promises of the world’s largest chocolate fountain. </p>
<p>So what’s the state of play going into election day? Which announcements have cut through, and what’s been lost in the flood of promises? And of course, what might we prefer to forget?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">Dire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming</a>
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<h2>The key players</h2>
<p>Tasmania has five electorates: Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin, and Lyons. Each of these will <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-24/peg-putt-1998-tasmanian-parliament-numbers-chair-protest/101689536">elect seven members</a> to the lower house for the first time since 1998, when each electorate was reduced to five seats. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Tasmania’s lower house is being restored to 35 seats.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Jeremy Rockliff is leader of the Liberal Party (there’s no Coalition down south), and has been premier since April 2022. </p>
<p>He’s had a rough ride. There have been several cabinet reshuffles, and he’s been forced to govern in minority since May 2023, when two of his MPs <a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-is-going-to-an-early-election-will-the-countrys-last-liberal-state-be-no-more-216533">quit the party</a> to sit on the crossbench. He called the election in a bid to re-establish his parliamentary majority.</p>
<p>In the opposite camp, Rebecca White is leader of the Labor Party, and will be hoping to avoid her third straight electoral defeat. Like Rockliff, the past few years haven’t been smooth sailing for White and Labor. </p>
<p>She resigned as party leader after the 2021 election defeat and was replaced by David O’Byrne. However, O’Byrne was forced to quit three weeks later following a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/labor-investigates-sexual-harassment-claims-against-david-obyrne/100253560">sexual harassment claim</a>, and White was re-elected as leader. She and Labor have struggled to cut through during the election campaign.</p>
<p>Rosalie Woodruff is the leader of the Greens, which have long been the third party in Tasmania. Woodruff took over from Cassy O’Connor in July 2023, but is something of an unknown quantity, with a lower public profile than previous Greens leaders.</p>
<p>Here’s where things get interesting. This election will see the highest number of independents (29) contesting a Tasmanian election for decades. </p>
<p>While there are too many to list them all, ones to keep an eye on include: </p>
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<li><p>John Tucker and Lara Alexander (the Liberal MPs who quit in 2023)</p></li>
<li><p>David O’Byrne (former Labor leader)</p></li>
<li><p>Kristie Johnson (a sitting independent MP) </p></li>
<li><p>Sue Hickey (former Hobart Lord Mayor, former Liberal then independent MP).</p></li>
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<p>Finally, there’s the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN), which is running candidates in all seats except Clark. The JLN made the controversial decision not to release any policies, instead pitching themselves as a group of down-to-earth people that wants to “keep the bastards honest”. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-is-going-to-an-early-election-will-the-countrys-last-liberal-state-be-no-more-216533">Tasmania is going to an early election. Will the country's last Liberal state be no more?</a>
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<h2>Which issues have dominated the campaign?</h2>
<p>Polling during the campaign showed the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-15/tas-stateline-election-issues-influencing-voters/103463516">top concerns</a> for most Tasmanian voters were health care and cost of living. Labor and Liberal both put forward several measures aimed at these areas, among others. </p>
<p>Millions of dollars have been promised with the enthusiasm of a discount carpet warehouse closing-down sale – but this <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/lyons-is-tasmanias-largest-geographical-electorate-covering-many-regional-areas/news-story/c116fd291dc9b8eb76efc2fe363e49ea">hasn’t necessarily</a> helped win votes. In fact, this sort of policy bonanza can confuse and overwhelm voters.</p>
<p>In an ideal world, we would each decide our vote by comparing each candidate or party’s full set of policies, and figuring out which one best matches our own values. But who has time for that? </p>
<p>In reality, people typically vote based on a combination of <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/what-makes-us-vote-the-way-we-do/">other things</a>, including specific, controversial issues, eye-catching headlines, and candidates’ personalities. This is how democracies tend to work all over the world. </p>
<p>So what were the things that might have shifted votes during this campaign? </p>
<p>The long-running divide in Tasmanian society between environmental conservation and economic development remains, meaning voters may decide whom to side with depending on each party’s stance on salmon farming or the proposed new AFL stadium, for example. </p>
<p>Some influential issues are hyper-local, such as a long-closed <a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/labor-makes-election-promise-of-5m-to-repair-and-reopen-glenorchy-pool/news-story/88a4ff6da7046cea183d4ac962eecc06">community pool</a>. </p>
<p>There have been a few “headline grabbers” during the campaign, designed to stick in the minds of undecided voters. The best example of this is the Liberals’ promise to build the world’s largest <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/10/pure-imagination-tasmanian-premier-vows-to-build-worlds-largest-chocolate-fountain-if-re-elected">chocolate fountain</a> if elected. Labor’s <a href="https://taslabor.org.au/our-plan/power-prices/">refrain</a> “Tasmanian prices for Tasmanian power” is also in the mix. </p>
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<p>The final thing that may sway voters is what <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/mar/19/its-the-vibe-25-years-on-how-the-castle-became-an-australian-classic#:%7E:text=For%20some%2C%20the%20most%20well,the%20vibe%2C%E2%80%9D%20says%20Denuto.">Dennis Denuto</a> would call “the vibe” around candidates. </p>
<p>Rockliff has benefited from the perception that he’s a “<a href="https://www.themercury.com.au/news/opinion/wooley-libs-launched-back-in-time-by-nice-guy-jrock/news-story/acbafc64fae580379192f2e65ea8aa37">nice guy</a>” in tough circumstances, while White has struggled to separate her brand from the O’Byrne controversy and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-30/analysis-labor-strategy-questions-after-winter-snub/100037140">earlier Labor factional fighting</a>.</p>
<p>The Greens have been doorknocking hard, particularly in the state’s <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/03/15/tasmanian-greens-state-election-braddon/">northwest</a>. That personal contact may help them get a new candidate across the line. </p>
<p>The JLN has leaned heavily on their namesake’s forceful “battler” personality. Each independent has tried to build their own brand, typically by focusing on a specific issue or spruiking their ability to stand up to the major parties. It’s tricky to tell how successful these efforts have been – the proof will be in the votes. </p>
<h2>The lowlights</h2>
<p>There have been a few lowlights during the campaign. First prize goes to the fake JLN site <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-14/jacqui-lambie-slams-liberals-over-website/103581992">set up</a> by the Liberal Party. This particular piece of skulduggery is not against electoral law, but it’s certainly against the spirit of democracy. It might not have the desired effect: this type of negative campaigning can <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">turn voters away</a> from the offending party.</p>
<p>Another disappointing aspect of the campaign was Rockliff and White repeatedly ruling out offering ministries or policy concessions to independents, the JLN, or the Greens in exchange for their support. This is due to the perceived failure of <a href="https://www.aspg.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/33_2-Michael-Lester.pdf">previous power-sharing</a> deals in Tasmania. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jacqui-lambie-network-is-the-latest-victim-of-cybersquatting-its-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-of-negative-political-ads-online-225774">The Jacqui Lambie Network is the latest victim of 'cybersquatting'. It's the tip of the iceberg of negative political ads online</a>
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<p>Rockliff even proposed that MPs who quit their party should be <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-19/experts-respond-to-tas-liberals-stability-clause/103599746">booted out</a> of parliament and replaced with a candidate from the same party – a stunt that ignores that our political system is based on candidates being elected to represent a constituency, not a party. </p>
<p>Rockliff and White may come to regret their strident rhetoric when the votes are counted. It looks <a href="https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455">very unlikely</a> either party will win the 18 seats needed to form a majority government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225783/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tasmanians head to the polls on Saturday in an election that was called more than a year early. After a largely uninspiring campaign, here’s your guide to state election.Robert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2165332024-02-14T04:18:58Z2024-02-14T04:18:58ZTasmania is going to an early election. Will the country’s last Liberal state be no more?<p>After months of speculation about an early election and a battle to keep minority government alive, Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff – Australia’s last remaining Liberal Premier – has called an election for March 23, three years into a four-year term.</p>
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<p>In making the announcement, Rockliff said he wanted the stability of majority government.</p>
<p>“I’m not going to allow myself or my government to be held to ransom for the next 12 months. It’s bad for Tasmania, it’s bad for Tasmanians.”</p>
<p>What issues are likely to dominate the campaign? What is the likely outcome, and will it have any implications beyond the shores of Australia’s island state?</p>
<h2>What’s been going on?</h2>
<p>The Tasmanian Liberals have governed since 2014, but recently Rockliff has had to manage a series of ructions. </p>
<p>There have been seven reshuffles since the 2021 election, sparked in some cases by high profile ministerial resignations. </p>
<p>In mid-May 2023, two government back benchers <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-12/tasmania-liberal-government-in-minority-mps-defect-over-stadium/102333446">quit the party</a> to sit on the cross bench, citing a range of grievances. </p>
<p>Lara Alexander and John Tucker’s agreement with Rockliff to guarantee supply and confidence in the House lasted until early February when the premier issued a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-02/tas-premier-rockliff-issues-early-election-threat-to-mps/103413562">second ultimatum</a> effectively demanding the rebel MPs support all government legislation.</p>
<p>Given neither of the independents were willing to cede their independence an early election became inevitable. Now, the real question is whether Tasmanian voters will blame the premier or the rebel MPs for taking them to the polls a year early?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-tasmanian-afl-team-turned-into-a-political-football-205846">How the Tasmanian AFL team turned into a political football</a>
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<p>Due to Tasmania’s 25-seat Lower House (which has been <a href="https://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0028/47584/47_of_2022-srs.pdf">restored</a> to 35 members for this election), these events have stretched Rockliff’s talent pool and contributed to a feeling among voters that the government is approaching its used by date.</p>
<p>Rubbing salt in the wound, Labor and the Greens have relished pointing out that a party which had <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/speeches/state-of-the-state-address">promised to deliver</a> stable majority government was now in minority. Indeed, Jeremy Rockliff cited
the need restore majority government and avoid “governing with one hand tied behind my back” as a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-02/tas-rockliff-stateline-analysis-early-election-trigger/103413270">justification</a> for going to the polls a year early.</p>
<p>Given Tasmania’s proportional Hare Clark electoral system, where candidates only need to secure about 15% of the vote after preferences to win a seat, it seems inevitable that forming government will require some form of power sharing or coalition arrangement. </p>
<p>This is reinforced by polling data that suggests Tasmanian voters are turning their backs on both major parties. A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48296-the-tasmanian-state-liberal-vote-is-down-17-since-the-last-election">YouGov poll</a> conducted in January had both Liberal and Labor polling around 30% (31% Liberal, 27% Labor), with the Jacquie Lambie Network (20%), Greens (15%) and other independents (7%) sharing the remaining 40%.</p>
<h2>The key issues</h2>
<p>This all suggests that well established campaign strategies will once again be trotted out. </p>
<p>The government will talk up the strong (but <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-04/tasmanias-economy-slumps-from-first-to-sixth-in-aus/103065236">slowing</a>) economy and run a scare campaign against
minority government. This approach has served the Liberals well in the past, but their current minority status may undermine the pitch. </p>
<p>Labor, the Greens, independents, and the Jacqui Lambie Network will all point to the failure to address persistent housing, hospital, and transport challenges, as well as growing concerns about transparency and accountability.</p>
<p>One wildcard is government support for Hobart’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/11/the-devils-and-the-detail-of-the-715m-afl-stadium-dividing-tasmania">proposed waterfront AFL stadium</a>. Most Tasmanians want an AFL team, but many have concerns about the mooted funding
model in which the government covers most of the cost – and the financial risk.</p>
<p>Finally, the rise and dominance of hyper-local issues is making it hard for parties to develop and deliver a cohesive long-term strategy for the state. History shows that laundry lists of election promises don’t provide the basis for good government.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanias-reached-net-zero-emissions-and-100-renewables-but-climate-action-doesnt-stop-there-160927">Tasmania's reached net-zero emissions and 100% renewables – but climate action doesn't stop there</a>
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<h2>Federal eyes on the campaign</h2>
<p>Mainland pundits will be watching the election closely for two main reasons.</p>
<p>Firstly, the March poll will be an early test of electoral support for a more conservative Liberal party in Tasmania and beyond. While Rockliff is a moderate, the conservative faction of the Tasmanian Liberals is in the ascendancy with former long-serving federal senator Eric Abetz seeking to make a comeback in the state seat of Franklin. </p>
<p>Abetz will likely be elected, but it remains to be seen whether this occurs despite a broader swing against the Liberals. </p>
<p>If the party can retain government in Tasmania, it may provide an early indication that the national political tide is turning.</p>
<p>Secondly, the election may provide further evidence of fragmentation in Australian politics. </p>
<p>If significant numbers of Tasmanians, particularly those from regional and less well-off communities, vote for independents or minor parties, the major parties will have some serious soul searching to do. They’ll need to rethink their strategies for future state and national elections.</p>
<h2>What does the crystal ball say?</h2>
<p>Tasmanian elections are notoriously hard to predict.</p>
<p>Given the most likely outcome will be some form of coalition or power-sharing arrangement, negotiations after polling day will be just as important and interesting as the vote itself.</p>
<p>Will the Liberals be willing to form a minority government, and would Jeremy Rockliff be prepared to lead it? </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nothing-left-in-the-tank-resigning-tasmanian-premier-peter-gutwein-deserves-credit-on-covid-and-economics-180596">‘Nothing left in the tank’: resigning Tasmanian premier Peter Gutwein deserves credit on COVID and economics</a>
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<p>After ten years in the wilderness (not such a bad place to be in this part of the world!) Labor is desperate to govern, but will be reluctant to enter into an agreement with the Greens due to past experience. They may, however, be willing to govern with the support of the Jacqui Lambie Network and/or independents.</p>
<p>Tasmanian politics has always had a unique and interesting dynamic, and the March election is unlikely to disappoint. The real test is whether members of the next Tasmanian Parliament are able to put the interests of the community above petty politics to deliver the good government Tasmanians deserve.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston is an appointed a member of two public advisory boards providing advice to the Tasmanian government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After frontbench resignations, MPs going rogue and months of speculation, the Apple Isle is headed to the polls. What can we expect?Richard Eccleston, Professor of Political Science; Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaRobert Hortle, Research Fellow, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2031382023-04-03T04:47:16Z2023-04-03T04:47:16ZIt’s not easy, but history shows minority government has worked in NSW before. Here’s what Chris Minns must do<p>Although Labor has returned to power in NSW, it will be in a minority government, with probably 45 seats, two short of a majority, to the Coalition’s 36 (assuming the Liberal Party wins the seat of Ryde, where it is currently ahead as counting continues).</p>
<p>Labor’s position could be further diminished as the government has to provide a speaker. The obvious strategy will be to offer the position to a crossbencher to maintain its numbers on the floor of the lower house. Independent MP for Lake Macquarie, Greg Piper, is a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-28/nsw-election-counting-results/102152726">likely</a> candidate, as he was appointed <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/key-independent-appointed-assistant-speaker-as-perrottet-woos-crossbench-20220215-p59wq9.html">assistant speaker</a> by the previous government.</p>
<p>Incoming premier Chris Minns has <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/department-heads-in-firing-line-as-unions-warn-of-damaged-relations-20230402-p5cxdi.html">said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s always been the case, at least for the last 15 years, that the NSW upper house has been controlled by the crossbench and that will be the situation in the lower house, as well. So legislation will have to be navigated through those two parliaments but it’s not necessarily difficult or different from what’s been in place for the last two years.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/roleandhistory/Pages/The-history-of-the-Council.aspx">no government</a> has had a majority in the Legislative Council since 1988, a situation that looks set to continue in the new parliament. </p>
<p>It is true that towards the end of its term, the Coalition government slipped into a minority position in the lower house, but it could count on the support of a former Liberal on the crossbench. Despite his optimistic prediction, Minns may find the situation he faces in the lower house more complex and difficult, particularly as he has a large legislative agenda to implement.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-long-history-of-political-corruption-in-nsw-and-the-downfall-of-mps-ministers-and-premiers-147994">The long history of political corruption in NSW — and the downfall of MPs, ministers and premiers</a>
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<h2>Fluid, complex and hard to predict</h2>
<p>There are 12 crossbenchers, ranging across the spectrum: Greens and progressives, disenchanted or disendorsed Liberals, ex-Shooters, other regional MPs. </p>
<p>The government will need crossbench votes to win divisions. Three sitting independents – Alex Greenwich, Joe McGirr and Piper – have already offered to support Minns on confidence and supply motions, which will give the government stability in office.</p>
<p>This accords with the principle that independents having the balance of power should support the party with the majority of seats. However, like the other crossbenchers, they will vote on other measures according to their assessment of merit.</p>
<p>It is tempting to divide the crossbenchers according to assumed left or right sympathies. Their voting pattern, in reality, will be more fluid, complex and harder to predict.</p>
<p>Of the three MPs combining to guarantee the government in office, for example, one is a progressive (Greenwich), the others are moderates. The crossbenchers may also band together on issues of common concern, such as procedural reforms to give them more influence in the House.</p>
<p>The government’s lack of control of the lower house means it will potentially operate in an entirely different way. </p>
<p>The government will have no assurance its legislative proposals will be passed unamended – or passed at all. It will not routinely be able to gag debate or silence opposition or crossbench MPs. After years of being dominated by the executive government, power has returned to the parliament.</p>
<h2>History shows it can work</h2>
<p>The most relevant precedent is the Legislative Assembly from 1991-95. After that election, the Coalition had 49 seats (48 after appointing a speaker) and Labor 46. Four independents held the balance of power in the 99-seat house.</p>
<p>In return for implementation of a <a href="http://www.cloverarchive.com/archive/issues/other/reform/charter/">charter of reform</a>, three of them – John Hatton, Peter Macdonald and Clover Moore – agreed to support the government on appropriation and supply bills and confidence motions, except where “matters of corruption or gross maladministration” were involved. </p>
<p>Otherwise, the unaligned independents were free to vote as they saw fit, which they certainly did.</p>
<p>The government was forced to negotiate regularly with the independents. It was a slow and sometimes tortuous process. The independents needed time to make their own assessment of proposals and consider the views of interest groups and the opposition. </p>
<p>Under this regime, committees were often established on legislation and other matters, whether the government liked it or not. Debate was unfettered. </p>
<p>In previous parliaments, governments were rarely, if ever, defeated in the lower house; that was not the case between 1991 and 1995.</p>
<p>Government bills were carefully scrutinised and, in some cases, heavily amended; in many instances, better legislation emerged. </p>
<p>The process may at times have been chaotic but the government usually got what it wanted, although it had to accept negotiation and compromise as the price.</p>
<p>Another NSW precedent for coping with a large crossbench is the upper house after the 1999 election. </p>
<p>The balance of power was held by <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/articles/Documents/the-declining-membership-of-the-nsw-legislative-/Journal%20article%20-%20Australasian%20Parliamenuncil%20Cross%20Bench%20and%20its%20Implications%20for%20Responsible%20Gover.pdf">13</a> independent and minor party members of the Legislative Council, ranging across the ideological spectrum.</p>
<p>It seemed a recipe for legislative chaos; in fact, it proved to be a relatively stable, even productive, period.</p>
<p>Much of the credit is due to treasurer and leader of the government in the Legislative Council, Michael Egan. He was a skilful parliamentarian and accomplished negotiator who had the ability to accommodate most of the various interests in the house. </p>
<p>His deputy, John Della Bosca, <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/roleandhistory/Documents/Transcript%20-%20The%20Hon.%20John%20Della%20Bosca%20-%20Oral%20history%20project%20interview%20-%20Monday%2012%20November%202018%20%5B%20corrected%20%5D.pdf">commented</a> perceptively:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think the idea of having a lot of different crossbenchers actually made it easier, even though in theory they were a block on the government’s program. Generally speaking, because there were so many of them, it was easier to negotiate proposals about amendments or not amending the legislation as proposed. You would think that the more crossbenchers there were, the more difficult it would be, but I think the more crossbenchers there are, in some ways it makes it easier.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Della Bosca <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/roleandhistory/Documents/Transcript%20-%20The%20Hon.%20John%20Della%20Bosca%20-%20Oral%20history%20project%20interview%20-%20Monday%2012%20November%202018%20%5B%20corrected%20%5D.pdf">believes</a> better legislation resulted from negotiation with the crossbenchers: </p>
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<p>There were days when we were pretty frustrated with the crossbench, of course, and probably there were many days that they were very frustrated with us, but I think on the whole it achieved exactly that outcome. I do not think there was any legislation you just could not get through because of the crossbench. I do not think we ever brought anything in that did not eventually get passed, though sometimes in a highly modified form.</p>
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<p>To govern effectively, the Minns government needs to accept the crossbenchers have legitimate concerns that should be listened to. </p>
<p>Communication and compromise should be the new order. It may be a wild ride, but democracy is the potential beneficiary.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/itll-be-tough-for-perrottet-to-win-the-nsw-election-but-labor-wont-romp-home-either-198892">It'll be tough for Perrottet to win the NSW election. But Labor won't romp home either</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Clune does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Communication and compromise should be the order of the day in minority government. It may be a wild ride, but democracy is the potential beneficiary.David Clune, Honorary Associate, Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837192022-05-24T06:13:30Z2022-05-24T06:13:30ZGood timing and hard work: behind the election’s ‘Greenslide’<p>During Saturday’s election, 31.5% of the voters deserted the major parties, with a swag of female <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inside-the-teal-wave-how-the-independent-revolution-happened-20220522-p5ani0.html">teal independents</a> tipping Liberal MPs out of their heartland urban seats. </p>
<p>By contrast, the underestimated Greens had a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/australian-greens-hails-best-result-ever-with-dramatic-gains-in-lower-house-and-senate">sensational election</a>, surprising many pundits with the strength of their support. </p>
<p>Even though their lower house vote increased by just 1.5% overall, their concentrated support saw the Greens gain two, potentially three, seats in Brisbane. Their traditional strength in the Senate is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results/senate">set to grow</a>, potentially to an all time high of 12 senators. That would give them the balance of power. </p>
<p>So, how did the Greens do it? A combination of good timing and hard work. The climate election arrived at last, Scott Morrison was deeply unpopular, and the third party of Australian politics harnessed support it had been quietly building for years, especially in conservative-leaning Queensland. The only surprise is that many of us weren’t paying attention. </p>
<h2>How did the Greens do it?</h2>
<p>The Greens have hit a new high-water mark in the lower house with 11.9% of the vote. While good, it’s barely better than their 2010 best of 11.76%. Even so, because of the concentration of their support, their leader Adam Bandt will likely be joined by two other Greens in the lower house and possibly one more. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-teal-steal-independent-candidates-rock-the-liberal-vote-183024">The big teal steal: independent candidates rock the Liberal vote</a>
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<p>If Labor is unable to secure a majority, the Greens will likely support minority government. Australia’s only other Greenslide election was in 2010, when the Greens shared the balance of power in the lower house, and held it in the Senate. They were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-09-01/greens-labor-seal-deal/966044">on board</a> then with Labor’s reformist agenda and <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1112/12rp07">smoothed the passage</a> of its bills. </p>
<p>As a result, the minority government was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2018/dec/23/turnbull-scores-lower-than-abbott-gillard-and-rudd-on-productivity-in-parliament">our most productive</a> government in recent years. </p>
<h2>Playing to party strengths</h2>
<p>Are these <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-22/queensland-federal-election-greens-politics-analysis/101088630">results a shock</a>? Not really. The party has played to its strengths by targeting specific seats at least since 2010, when they had the biggest swings to their party across the country. That was when <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2010-Climate-of-the-Nation-web.pdf">85% of us</a> wanted climate action, before the climate wars set us back a decade. </p>
<p>Every election since has been about growing the Green vote across the country whilst expanding their inner-city strongholds, with very specific targeting of seats like Melbourne (Adam Bandt’s safe seat), Kooyong, Goldstein, Sydney, MacKellar, Warringah, Brisbane, Curtin and Grayndler.</p>
<p>In March 2021, the Greens released their election strategy in a largely neglected but <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22media%2Fpressrel%2F7868529%22">extremely clear</a> press release. They identified nine priority lower house seats, three additional Senate seats, and the balance of power in both houses as party goals. Notably, their campaigning efforts only overlapped the teal independents in the seat of Kooyong. </p>
<p>It looks like they’ll win the three Queensland seats of Ryan, Griffith and Brisbane from, respectively, the Liberals, Liberal National Party and Labor. Adam Bandt is <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/greens-on-the-march-in-queensland-with-four-seats-in-sights-20220411-p5acja.html">now confident</a> the Greens are “on the march” in the sunshine state. That’s quite a turnaround from 2019, where Queensland proved critical to Morrison’s miracle victory. </p>
<h2>From the ground up</h2>
<p>Crucially, Green politics is built from the ground up, beginning with participation at local council level and in state parliaments. </p>
<p>In 2020, the party won two state seats, following their gain of a seat on Brisbane City Council, and have continued to build on that momentum into this election with sophisticated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/22/how-knocking-on-90000-doors-delivered-queensland-labor-heartland-to-the-greens">grass roots campaigning</a>.</p>
<p>This is a long term effort. In the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/ryan">seat of Ryan</a>, for example, which takes in much of Brisbane’s leafy west and hinterland, the Greens have been slowly building up strength since reaching just under 19% in 2010. On Saturday, Elizabeth Watson-Brown wrested Ryan from the LNP with a primary vote of 31.1% and a two-party-preferred vote of 53.2%. </p>
<p>Traditionally, the Greens have posed more of a threat to Labor. While they have done most damage to the Liberals this election, Labor knows that it is not immune to this rising third force. Adam Bandt’s seat was solidly Labor for over one hundred years. </p>
<h2>A Green mandate</h2>
<p>Gaining the balance of power in either or both houses would give the Greens greater leverage to introduce parts of their agenda. The election result was <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-Election-Analysis-_V2_low-res-single-page-for-web.pdf">clearly a mandate</a> for strengthened climate action, and they will seek that immediately.</p>
<p>What could this look like? Think of the key achievements of the Gillard minority Labor government, which included Green initiatives such as clean energy legislation, carbon pricing and the establishment of the Climate Change Authority, Renewable Energy Agency and Clean Energy Finance Corporation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-end-of-the-two-party-system-in-australia-the-greens-teals-and-others-shock-the-major-parties-182672">Is this the end of the two-party system in Australia? The Greens, teals and others shock the major parties</a>
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<p>In 2022, Greens preferences to Labor across the country proved vital in unseating Liberal MPs. Despite Labor’s traditional discomfort with Green incursions into “their” seats, this trend is here to stay. Labor will have to deal with it. The Greens back much of the teal independents’ agenda of climate action and political integrity, making them collectively a powerful crossbench for change.</p>
<p>In his post election speech, Bandt made clear what he wants: a principled, stable Labor government, with an end to coal and gas, a just transition for displaced workers, and investment in climate resilience. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Greens leader Adam Bandt speaking after the 2022 federal election.</span></figcaption>
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<p>By neglecting environmental issues and failing to adequately tackle Australia’s growing inequality, both major parties have created the political space which Green politics fills. </p>
<p>Over the last decade, as climate-linked crises have intensified, public concern has soared. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/06/eye-watering-climate-change-disasters-will-cost-australia-billions-each-year-study-finds">economic cost</a> of this neglect is already in the billions and climbing. </p>
<p>The Greens and teal independents will likely seek to end fossil fuel subsidies and to ban fossil industry donations to political parties. Had the political parties kept a distance from corrosive fossil fuel influence in the first place, they would not find Greens and teals replacing them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183719/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Crowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In 2022, the ‘Greenslide’ took seats from major parties. Here’s how they did it.Kate Crowley, Adjunct Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835482022-05-23T04:17:23Z2022-05-23T04:17:23ZThe election showed Australia’s huge appetite for stronger climate action. What levers can the new government pull?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464710/original/file-20220523-11-i17sdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C3921%2C2208&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the polls closed on Saturday night, most election commentary focused on the dispiriting campaign where both major parties avoided any substantial division on policy issues and instead focused on negatively framing the opposing leader. </p>
<p>Even to many seasoned political minds, the most likely outcome seemed to be a reversal of the last parliament, with Labor winning enough seats to form a narrow majority, and one or two more seats falling to independents. As we all now know, the outcome was utterly different. The Liberals lost many of their crown jewels to climate challengers – teal independents and the Greens. </p>
<p>This means the new Labor government now has a different challenge on climate. Rather than trying to keep check on concessions to the cross-bench, Labor must now find ways to pursue more ambitious climate policies. Labor can’t pull the most effective lever available – a carbon price – after the Liberals successfully poisoned the well. But there are other ways to accelerate Australia’s shift to cleaner and greener, such as through public investment in large-scale solar and wind. </p>
<p>The next three years will be challenging economically and politically. But the transformation wrought by the election has opened up the possibility of a similar transformation of climate policy. With bold action, a bright future awaits.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5982%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Solar farm by sea" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5982%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464709/original/file-20220523-15124-828mxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Government backing for large scale renewables could be one lever Labor could pull.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate proved critical</h2>
<p>Labor’s path to victory was unusual. The party taking government will do so despite its primary vote slumping to a postwar low, far below the level of routs seen in 1996 and 1975. </p>
<p>Outside Western Australia (where the result was driven largely by the success of the McGowan government’s Covid policy), Labor barely moved the dial. So far Labor has taken five seats from the Liberals (with some Labor-held seats still in doubt) while losing Fowler to an independent and Griffith to the Greens. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-pricing-works-the-largest-ever-study-puts-it-beyond-doubt-142034">Carbon pricing works: the largest-ever study puts it beyond doubt</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The big shock in this election was the loss of a string of formerly safe Liberal seats to Greens and “teal” independents. All of these candidates campaigned primarily on climate change, an issue the major parties, and most of the mainstream media had agreed should be put to one side as too dangerous and divisive. </p>
<p>During the campaign, the possibility of a hung parliament drew attention. In response, both major parties vowed (not very credibly) that they would never do a deal with Greens or independents to secure office. Realistically, it seemed possible that Labor might offer a slightly more ambitious program on climate policy in order to make minority government easier.</p>
<p>In retrospect, it’s clear that this type of analysis assumed Australia’s long-standing political pattern would continue: a two-party system, with a handful of cross-benchers occasionally playing the role of kingmaker. All of the media commentary leading up to the election took this for granted. The “teal” independents were seen as a possible threat to two or three urban Liberals and the Greens were, for all practical purposes, ignored.</p>
<p>What we have instead is a shock to this system. Australia now has a radically changed political scene in which the assumptions of the two-party system no longer apply. Even if Labor scrapes in with a majority, it is unlikely to be sustained at the next election, given the challenging economic circumstances the incoming government will face. As for the LNP, unless they can regain some of the seats lost to independents and Greens, they have almost no chance of forming a majority government at the next election, even with a big win over Labor in traditionally competitive seats.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Power pylons" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464711/original/file-20220523-19-4b7a5o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor’s proposed Rewiring the Nation corporation is aimed at making the grid renewable-ready.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Adapting to political change</h2>
<p>Labor’s challenge now is to adapt to this new world. They will have to find ways of delivering what the electorate clearly wants on climate, after ruling out most of the obvious options in the course of the campaign. The new leader of the LNP will have the unenviable task of winning back lost Liberal heartlands while placating a party room dominated by climate denialists and coal fans.</p>
<p>Having ruled out a carbon price, Labor will need to be much more aggressive with the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/The-safeguard-mechanism">safeguard mechanism</a> it inherits from the LNP. By itself, this won’t be nearly enough. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-about-to-be-hit-by-a-carbon-tax-whether-the-prime-minister-likes-it-or-not-except-the-proceeds-will-go-overseas-170959">Australia is about to be hit by a carbon tax whether the prime minister likes it or not, except the proceeds will go overseas</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<hr>
<p>The real need is to promote rapid growth in large-scale solar and wind energy, and to push much harder on the transition to to electric vehicles. Some of this could be done through direct public investment, on the model of Queensland’s <a href="https://cleancoqueensland.com.au/">CleanCo</a>, or through expanded use of concessional finance using the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and the new Rewiring the Nation Corporation. The great political appeal of this approach is that all of these agencies are off-budget and therefore won’t count in measures of public debt, which is bound to grow in coming years due to pandemic spending.</p>
<p>Democracy, however imperfect, works through the possibility of renewal and change. What this election has shown us that the political system can change. Now comes the task of applying politics – the art of the possible – to the challenge of switching our energy systems from fossil fuels to clean power. It’s our best chance yet. </p>
<p><em>Correction: A previous version of this article mentioned Cowper rather than Fowler as the Labor seat lost to an independent.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p>Doing as little as possible on climate change was a seemingly safe political strategy until recently. As of Saturday night, it’s a recipe for political disaster.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1817062022-05-15T20:15:35Z2022-05-15T20:15:35ZNo, Mr Morrison. Minority government need not create ‘chaos’ – it might finally drag Australia to a responsible climate policy<p>Labor might be <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/labor-pulls-ahead-in-newspoll-but-scott-morrison-holds-his-ground/news-story/ba1882f2cc410e9b1d3a37d8587cb690">leading</a> in the national polls, but a hung parliament after the May 21 election remains a distinct possibility.</p>
<p>So-called “teal” independents, whose blue conservatism is tinged with green concern for climate change, may well join Greens MP Adam Bandt and current independents on the lower house crossbench. Under that scenario, any minority government would need their support.</p>
<p>With the support of advocacy group <a href="https://www.climate200.com.au/candidates">Climate 200</a>, the teals are campaigning on issues relevant to their electorates and raising funds locally. But <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-secret-party-immoral-explaining-who-the-teal-independents-really-are-20220505-p5aio4.html">high</a> on their agendas is a strong, science-based response to the climate crisis.</p>
<p>A weekend report by Nine newspapers <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/majority-of-independent-mps-and-candidates-rule-out-formal-deals-with-morrison-and-albanese-to-form-government-20220513-p5al36.html">suggested</a> most independents seeking a lower house seat would not strike a formal power-sharing deal with either the Coalition or Labor. This would leave a major party in minority government negotiating with the crossbench on every piece of legislation it wants to pass.</p>
<p>Almost all the 12 independents who were polled nominated climate change as a key priority they would seek progress on in any negotiations with a minority government.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2022/may/05/will-a-hung-parliament-lead-to-chaos-what-a-gillard-v-morrison-comparison-reveals">claims</a> the election of more independents to parliament would lead to “chaos”. But, as the experience of the Gillard Labor government shows, minority government can break intractable policy logjams. </p>
<h2>Climate policy U-turn</h2>
<p>The Gillard minority government <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-wars-carbon-taxes-and-toppled-leaders-the-30-year-history-of-australias-climate-response-in-brief-169545">reversed years</a> of climate policy failure by delivering carbon pricing and other reforms. This came at the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajph.12021">behest</a> of the Greens and with the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-10/independents-hail-carbon-win-for-regional-australia/2789050">support</a> of independents Andrew Wilkie, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor.</p>
<p>Carbon pricing prompted Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions to <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Carbon-price-10-years-on-web.pdf">fall</a> for the first time.</p>
<p>But from 2013, under successive Coalition governments, climate policy hit <a href="https://publishing.monash.edu/product/a-decade-of-drift/">reverse</a>. Renewable energy targets <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/05/how-australia-bungled-climate-policy-to-create-a-decade-of-disappointment">diminished</a>. Carbon pricing was abandoned and is now considered a political poisoned chalice. </p>
<p>The past decade of majority government has left Australia <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/australia-a-holdout-on-climate-un-chief/jzufkwmqw">isolated</a> on the world stage for its lacklustre climate efforts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-show-a-jump-in-the-greens-vote-but-its-real-path-to-power-lies-in-reconciling-with-labor-181705">Polls show a jump in the Greens vote – but its real path to power lies in reconciling with Labor</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="back of woman's head and a group of people in suits at a table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462920/original/file-20220513-26-s96mpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462920/original/file-20220513-26-s96mpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462920/original/file-20220513-26-s96mpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462920/original/file-20220513-26-s96mpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462920/original/file-20220513-26-s96mpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462920/original/file-20220513-26-s96mpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462920/original/file-20220513-26-s96mpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Independents and the Greens helped Julia Gillard form minority government in 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Fairfax pool/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Major parties forced to the negotiating table?</h2>
<p>Heading into the election, <a href="https://theconversation.com/scorched-dystopia-or-liveable-planet-heres-where-the-climate-policies-of-our-political-hopefuls-will-take-us-182513">neither</a> major party’s climate policy is aligned with the emissions reduction ambition of the global Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>The Coalition’s policy is consistent with 3°C to 4°C of global warming by 2050. Importantly, it has failed to ramp up its 2030 emissions target from the paltry figure adopted by the Abbott government – of 26% to 28% on 2005 levels.</p>
<p>Labor has a steeper 2030 emissions reduction target of 43% on 2005 levels. It is based upon reputable modelling but falls somewhat short for being consistent with 2°C, not 1.5°C, of global warming.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-687" class="tc-infographic" height="400px" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/687/a89f5238821e47b288052a287fbfaa98d2581d3d/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>Neither major party would relish re-negotiating its climate policy with teal independents and the Greens. But consensus and policy action, on climate and other big issues, is possible under minority government. </p>
<p>As Tony Windsor this month <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-2022-tony-windsor-rob-oakeshott-reject-independent-chaos-fears/news-story/6e5c831a98ea96eed8c80d560598733e">pointed out</a>, the Gillard minority government passed more legislation than any other, aside from John Howard’s in its final term. Former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-a-hung-parliament-could-save-the-country-from-toxic-politics-20220426-p5agbe.html">also insists</a> minority government can work.</p>
<p>And former Coalition Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull this month <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/06/malcolm-turnbull-says-australians-are-voting-with-their-feet-to-support-teal-independents">hailed</a> the rise of the teal independents, who would sit on the cross bench, calling it “direct, democratic action from voters. People power, you might say.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-the-major-parties-rate-on-climate-policies-we-asked-5-experts-181790">How do the major parties rate on climate policies? We asked 5 experts</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Group of men laughing" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462925/original/file-20220513-19-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462925/original/file-20220513-19-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462925/original/file-20220513-19-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462925/original/file-20220513-19-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462925/original/file-20220513-19-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462925/original/file-20220513-19-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462925/original/file-20220513-19-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Morrison government’s emissions reduction policy is aligned with 3°C of global warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What the teals and Greens are offering</h2>
<p>Climate change is a front-and-centre concern for the Greens and teal candidates, and any minority government would need to negotiate with them to form government and to manage their agendas.</p>
<p>Polls suggest independent teal MP Zali Steggall will be easily re-elected in the previously blue-ribbon Liberal seat of Warringah. She will reintroduce her ambitious climate change <a href="https://www.zalisteggall.com.au/media_release_zali_steggall_mp_presents_climate_policy_solution_for_cop26">bill</a>, likely with the <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/zali-steggall-the-independent-mp-hoping-to-lead-a-teal-wave-to-canberra/">support</a> of any other elected teal MPs and most of the crossbench.</p>
<p>This bill is modelled on the United Kingdom’s <a href="https://www.oecd.org/climate-action/ipac/practices/the-united-kingdom-s-pioneering-climate-change-act-c08c3d7a/">Climate Change Act</a>. It provides a means of coordinating climate policy action in line with the legislated targets of net zero emissions by 2050, and at least 60% emissions reduction by 2030. </p>
<p>Steggall’s “<a href="https://www.zalisteggall.com.au/climate">5 Steps to Net Zero</a>” comprise:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>passing the climate change bill</p></li>
<li><p>getting to 80% renewable energy by 2030</p></li>
<li><p>cleaning up transport and getting to 76% new vehicle sales being electric by 2030</p></li>
<li><p>halving industry emissions</p></li>
<li><p>regenerating and future-proofing agriculture by rolling out 8 million hectares of tree planting and soil carbon storage, and investing in low-carbon agriculture practices and technologies.</p></li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://greens.org.au/platform/climate">The Greens would</a> replace coal and gas with renewables, and ban political donations from the fossil fuel industry. The party would fund households and small business to transition to renewables, implement a coal export levy and eventually phase out thermal coal exports.</p>
<p>The Greens want Australia to reaching net zero emissions by 2035 (compared to the government’s goal of 2050) and to reach 100% renewable energy by 2030. </p>
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<img alt="rows of solar panels with hills" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462926/original/file-20220513-21-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462926/original/file-20220513-21-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462926/original/file-20220513-21-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462926/original/file-20220513-21-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462926/original/file-20220513-21-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462926/original/file-20220513-21-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462926/original/file-20220513-21-onvo9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Zali Steggall’s climate change bill includes a target of 80% renewable energy by 2030.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shifting the needle</h2>
<p>The fate of effective national climate policy in Australia – policy that actually reduces emissions – now rests largely on the mix of members in the next parliament and the actions they support. </p>
<p>A majority Coalition win at the election would consign Australia to another term of climate inaction, <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-can-beat-its-2030-emissions-target-but-the-morrison-government-barely-lifted-a-finger-169835">leaving</a> the state and territory governments the only ones making progress.</p>
<p>If a minority Coalition government eventuates, the Greens won’t offer it support. If any teal independents <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/11/high-profile-independents-will-negotiate-with-either-major-party-hung-parliament-teal-australia-federal-election-2022">did</a>, we can expect them to cross the floor on climate policy to support any workable proposal from Labor that had the numbers to succeed. </p>
<p>Labor, the Greens and Steggall’s plans share common ground. But if Labor forms minority government, it will be pressured to accelerate the phase out fossil fuels and to steepen its 2030 emissions reduction target in line with the science.</p>
<p>One thing is clear: in the event a major party forms minority government after the election, it better be prepared to shift the needle in favour of more effective climate policy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-2030-climate-target-betters-the-morrison-government-but-australia-must-go-much-further-much-faster-173066">Labor’s 2030 climate target betters the Morrison government, but Australia must go much further, much faster</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Crowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If a minority government needs backing from the ‘teal’ independents and the Greens, it better be prepared to shift the needle on climate policy.Kate Crowley, Adjunct Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1817052022-05-02T03:26:03Z2022-05-02T03:26:03ZPolls show a jump in the Greens vote – but its real path to power lies in reconciling with Labor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460702/original/file-20220502-16-7d1jod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C3997%2C2476&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Russell Freeman/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-leads-polling-at-the-campaign-s-halfway-mark-20220501-p5ahiv.html?btis">major poll</a> published yesterday suggests the Greens are set to grow as a political force at this month’s election, showing its primary vote has risen markedly from 10% in 2019 to a current high of 15%.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/climate-rises-as-the-no-1-voter-concern-20191115-p53auw">surveys</a> show <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-22/vote-compass-federal-election-issues-data-climate-change-economy/101002116">large numbers</a> of voters see climate change as their biggest concern, and the jump in Greens’ support indicates the issue is determining the way many people plan to vote.</p>
<p>The party goes to next month’s election armed with ambitious, big-spending policies. It strongly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-expecting-to-hold-balance-of-power-20220410-p5acem.html">fancies its chances</a> in at least five lower house seats and hopes to pick up three more Senate seats.</p>
<p>But for the Greens, the path to real power lies in a hung parliament where they can seek to extract policy concessions from a minority Labor government. The Greens and Labor have a <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/whitlams-children-electronic-book-text">mixed record</a> of working together, but can learn from past experience. So let’s take a closer look at what we can expect from the Greens in a hung parliament.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="rows of cupcakes bearing Greens logo" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460708/original/file-20220502-21-8q34bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The sweet smell of success: The real path to power for the Greens lies in a hung parliament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Crosling/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Seeking the balance of power</h2>
<p>Opinion polls earlier in the election campaign put the Greens at <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-election-2022-newspoll-and-ipsos-polls-yet-to-see-big-impact-from-campaign/cf47963e-b9b3-4a8c-84c0-f2f70562dbd7">between 11%</a> <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/25/ipsos-55-45-to-labor/">and 13%</a> of the primary vote.</p>
<p>In 2010 they polled <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1112/12rp07">11.76%</a> in the House of Representatives (giving them a shared balance of power) and 13% in the Senate (delivering the balance of power outright).</p>
<p>The 2010 election led to the first federal hung Parliament in 70 years, although these are common outcomes in the states and territories. Labor Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s deal with the Greens in 2010 to form a minority government ended acrimoniously.</p>
<p>Labor leader Anthony Albanese has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-rules-out-fringe-deal-in-rebuff-to-greens-on-climate-20220207-p59uj9.html">ruled out</a> such a power-sharing deal this time around, as Bill Shorten did ahead of the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-deals-major-parties-rule-out-return-to-gillardera-coalition-government-20160510-goqst4.html">2016</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/26/bill-shorten-rules-out-joint-climate-policy-process-with-greens-if-labor-wins-power">2019</a> elections. </p>
<p>But if a hung parliament does eventuate and Labor refuses a power-sharing deal, it would be left clinging to power, vote by vote. In any case, Labor would have to negotiate support from the Greens and independents in order to govern – and offer a swag of policy concessions in return.</p>
<p>The Greens are also a chance of recapturing the balance of power in the Senate, which means their influence after May 21 may still be significant.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-lead-steady-in-newspoll-and-gains-in-resolve-how-the-polls-moved-during-past-campaigns-181953">Labor's lead steady in Newspoll and gains in Resolve; how the polls moved during past campaigns</a>
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<p>The ability to influence policy is key to the legitimacy and relevance of minor parties such as the Greens. </p>
<p>Under the Gillard Labor minority government, the Greens had significant policy <a href="https://greensmps.org.au/articles/10-years-greens-labor-agreement-formula-progressive-change">success</a>. They pushed Labor towards a carbon pricing policy that briefly turned around energy emissions growth, and a <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2Fde045419-4cf3-4a48-a502-ec68c5e81782%2F0009%22;src1=sm1">dental health</a> package for children and low-income earners. </p>
<p>These signature policies were short-lived though; abolished by Abbott Coalition government after the 2013 election.</p>
<p>Some Green initiatives <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Budget_Office/About_the_PBO">survived</a>, however, such as the Parliamentary Budget Office, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.</p>
<p>Relations between Labor and the Greens eventually failed once the Gillard government adopted a watered-down <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b97aac1a-8567-11df-aa2e-00144feabdc0">mining tax</a>. The Greens also <a href="https://greensmps.org.au/articles/christine-milne-addresses-national-press-club">decried</a> Labor’s failure to make headway on environmental protection, national heritage, the Great Barrier Reef, Tasmania’s wilderness, the Murray Darling Basin and more.</p>
<p>So what policy demands can we expect from the Greens this time around?</p>
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<img alt="man and woman shake hands at table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/460710/original/file-20220502-19-3v8d4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Relations between Labor and the Greens eventually failed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Porritt/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>A big policy agenda</h2>
<p>In the case of a hung parliament, the Greens would demand a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-will-demand-coal-gas-moratorium-as-condition-for-support-20220206-p59u54.html">halt</a> to all new coal, gas and oil projects for at least six months while they negotiate with Labor over climate policy. It would also push for a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/28/greens-to-push-for-coal-export-levy-if-they-hold-balance-of-power">coal export levy</a> to fund disaster recovery and clean export industries.</p>
<p>In their 2022 electoral platform, the Greens are again aiming high. Their <a href="https://greens.org.au/platform">headline</a> policies include:</p>
<ul>
<li>a treaty with First Nations people</li>
<li>free dental and mental healthcare</li>
<li>wiping out student debt </li>
<li>building one million publicly owned, affordable, sustainable homes</li>
<li>overhauling labour laws to outlaw insecure work and increase wages. </li>
</ul>
<p>Should the Greens hold the balance of power, they would likely also call for the next government to urgently release the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/action-on-environment-report-card-stalls-as-government-slow-to-release-20220406-p5ab75.html">delayed</a> State of the Environment report, and to implement the recommendations from a 2020 independent review into Australia’s <a href="https://epbcactreview.environment.gov.au/resources/final-report">environment laws</a>.</p>
<p>The party’s <a href="https://greens.org.au/platform/enviro#greenaus">environment platform</a> offers the usual extensive suite of policies and detailed measures to address the extinction crisis, green jobs, clean water, caring for country, sustainable agriculture, preventing animal cruelty, eliminating single-use plastics and improving ocean health.</p>
<p>As well as phasing out coal, oil and gas, the Green’s <a href="https://greens.org.au/platform/climate">climate policy</a> includes:</p>
<ul>
<li>banning political donations from fossil fuel companies</li>
<li>installing cleaner, cheaper power for homes and business</li>
<li>assisting workers in the clean energy transition</li>
<li>funding climate resilience</li>
<li>supporting cleaner cars, electricity and manufacturing.</li>
</ul>
<p>Their energy plan allocates A$17.1 billion to electrify Australian homes, $14.8 billion electrifying small businesses and $12.6 billion installing <a href="https://naturalsolar.com.au/solar-news/solar-battery-boom/">small-scale solar</a> batteries.</p>
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<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-it-needs-it-australia-can-draw-on-significant-experience-of-minority-government-62095">If it needs it, Australia can draw on significant experience of minority government</a>
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<h2>Where next for the Greens?</h2>
<p>If the polls are right, the Greens are a chance to reclaim the balance of power in the Senate and to share the balance of power in the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>In the longer term, the Greens aspire to <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/pale-labor-needs-greens-says-bob-brown/news-story/aa91d395809e700cceba6d613c7e43c4">replace Labor</a> in government. But as experience in Tasmania and the ACT shows, Greens ministers can successfully serve in Labor cabinets.</p>
<p>For now, the Greens are nipping at the heels of the major parties. The party’s best prospects for realising its policies in national government lie in reconciling with Labor and learning to work in coalition.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-pledges-to-make-gender-pay-equity-a-fair-work-act-objective-182281">Albanese pledges to make gender pay equity a Fair Work Act objective</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Crowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Greens and Labor have a mixed record of working together, but can learn from past experience.Kate Crowley, Adjunct Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1680182021-09-21T15:06:51Z2021-09-21T15:06:51ZWhy minority governments have been good — and sometimes bad — for Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422409/original/file-20210921-15-1fvje6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5456%2C3634&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greets commuters at a Montréal Metro station the day after the federal election that saw him win re-election. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick </span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-minority-governments-have-been-good-—-and-sometimes-bad-—-for-canada" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Canada has another minority government. Is this good or bad for Canadian democracy? <a href="https://emond.ca/two-cheers-for-minority-government-the-evolution-of-canadian-parliamentary-democracy.html">Mostly good</a> — for now.</p>
<p>There’s a lot to like about a governing party having a minority of seats in the House of Commons, which requires that it work with opposition parties. </p>
<p>Minority government tempers the chronic problem in the parliamentary system of a prime minister and senior political staff having an <a href="https://www.chapters.indigo.ca/en-ca/books/governing-from-the-centre-the/9780802082527-item.html">excess of power</a>. Instead of barrelling forward with public policy, or taking members of Parliament for granted, there is a need to spend more time consulting widely.</p>
<p>In a minority government, <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/whipped">backbenchers matter</a> more. The average MP’s votes have more impact; the government could fall if it lacks their support. Parliamentary committees are no longer dominated by the governing party. Instead, committees have more freedom to monitor the government, and to question what ministers and the Prime Minister’s Office are trying to do.</p>
<p>In short, a minority government gives more power to the legislative branch, which acts as a check on the executive branch. This is precisely what Justin Trudeau was trying to avoid when he determined that an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/18/world/canada/justin-trudeau-snap-election.html">early election</a> was warranted.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rhetoric-check-parliament-wasnt-toxic-justin-trudeau-just-wants-a-majority-167245">Rhetoric Check: Parliament wasn't toxic — Justin Trudeau just wants a majority</a>
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<h2>A win is a win</h2>
<p>From Trudeau’s point of view, and that of his key political staff, a minority government is still a win. He is still prime minister, most of his ministers were re-elected and the Liberals won enough seats that there are unlikely to be threats to his leadership from within anytime soon.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trudeau and his family wave to supporters with a Canadian flag beside them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422407/original/file-20210921-13-1esx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422407/original/file-20210921-13-1esx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422407/original/file-20210921-13-1esx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422407/original/file-20210921-13-1esx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422407/original/file-20210921-13-1esx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422407/original/file-20210921-13-1esx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422407/original/file-20210921-13-1esx6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=521&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Trudeau and his family wave to supporters in Montréal on election night.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But Trudeau wanted a majority government for a reason.</p>
<p>The prime minister and his team will be stymied if they attempt to ram things through Parliament, like they did at the <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/archive/ca/entry/government-coronavirus-bill-scott-reid_ca_5e7a893cc5b6e051e8dcfe09">height of the pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>If parliamentary committees investigate his government’s ethical lapses, like they did over the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/we-contracts-lobbying-ethics-1.6060441">WE Charity scandal</a>, his main recourse is to shut things down <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7283685/trudeau-prorogues-parliament-explained/">by asking the governor general to prorogue</a> Parliament. </p>
<p>The next time he wants to go to the polls early, his attempted power grab will still be fresh on Canadians’ minds.</p>
<p>Yet we know from recent history that Canadians are likely to grow weary of the political games that occur during a minority government. From 2003 to 2006, Paul Martin headed a Liberal minority government, and Stephen Harper presided over two Conservative minorities until 2011, when he won a majority. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422414/original/file-20210921-21-1qs4b7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Harper speaks with a Canadian flag behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422414/original/file-20210921-21-1qs4b7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422414/original/file-20210921-21-1qs4b7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422414/original/file-20210921-21-1qs4b7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422414/original/file-20210921-21-1qs4b7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422414/original/file-20210921-21-1qs4b7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422414/original/file-20210921-21-1qs4b7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422414/original/file-20210921-21-1qs4b7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Stephen Harper delivers a speech to supporters during a campaign stop during the 2011 election in Niagara Falls.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The acrimony that played out during that tempestuous period climaxed with the Conservative government being declared in contempt of Parliament for not disclosing information, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harper-government-falls-in-historic-commons-showdown/article4181393/">which led to it falling</a> on a non-confidence motion in 2011. Undeterred, Harper then campaigned on a message of the need for a “strong, stable, Conservative majority government.” </p>
<p>Many Canadians agreed, and initially were relieved to put the political fighting of minority governance behind them. It was a reminder that prime ministers know that what happens in Parliament rarely ignites voter outrage on the campaign hustings.</p>
<h2>Rough waters ahead</h2>
<p>We can expect rough waters with a minority government. There will be constant politicking. The parties will be in a <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/permanent-campaigning-in-canada">perpetual election mode</a> as they try to win every communications battle, every public opinion poll and every fundraising drive as though the election never stopped. </p>
<p>The media and pundits will constantly speculate about whether the government will fall, or if there will be a snap election. The Liberals will attempt to box in the opposition to call their bluff on political demands, and will pressure their own MPs into supporting bills and motions under the threat of everything being a matter of confidence.</p>
<p>Opposition parties will try to embarrass the government at every opportunity, and there will be a steady diet of drama and controversy for the media to report. The only thing that will truly unify the parties is fear of an election that could cost them seats and money.</p>
<p>Canadians may be in for a rough political ride, but sometimes good things happen when political parties are forced to collaborate. </p>
<h2>Pearson minorities</h2>
<p>Proponents of minority governments look fondly at the 1960s when Lester B. Pearson won back-to-back <a href="https://irpp.org/wp-content/uploads/assets/po/minority-government/kent.pdf">minorities</a> that forced deal-brokering with the New Democratic Party. That era was the bedrock of the Canadian social safety net, with the Pearson Liberals advancing national medicare, Canada student loans and the Canada Pension Program. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Lester B. Pearson points to a tourism poster." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422417/original/file-20210921-27-1xbs7fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422417/original/file-20210921-27-1xbs7fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422417/original/file-20210921-27-1xbs7fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422417/original/file-20210921-27-1xbs7fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422417/original/file-20210921-27-1xbs7fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422417/original/file-20210921-27-1xbs7fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422417/original/file-20210921-27-1xbs7fo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson admires a poster promoting Canadian tourism in 1964.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(CP PHOTO)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>People forget, or may not know, that opposition parties lobbed <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/minority-government/minority-government-from-productive-to-dysfunctional/">countless accusations</a> of political wrongdoing and mismanagement, or that the news was filled with stories of controversy and chaos. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/flag-debate">The debate over creating the Canadian Maple Leaf flag</a> was especially divisive. Yet half a century later, the disagreements are largely forgotten, and most Canadians are rightly proud of those programs and their flag.</p>
<p>There is one looming problem with minority governments: <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1754-7121.1976.tb01713.x">they tend to spend</a> lots of money. Worried about losing power, the governing party wants to curry favour — and doesn’t want to stoke political unrest. </p>
<p>Since 2019, the Liberals have found support from the NDP, and as a result, hundreds of billions of dollars has been spent to combat the pandemic, to support Canadians and to stabilize the economy. Anyone worried about the government avoiding running massive deficits and the legacy of mounting financial debt has reason to be concerned.</p>
<p>Prime ministers do not like minority governments, or limits on their power. As Canada works its way through the pandemic, we’re lucky there will be a greater role for Parliament and MPs in trying to figure out the way forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168018/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Marland is a member of the board of directors of the Institute for Research on Public Policy.</span></em></p>Canada has elected another Liberal minority government. Here’s a look at the pros and cons of Canadian minority governments over the years.Alex Marland, Professor, Political Science, Memorial University of NewfoundlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1679662021-09-21T05:59:52Z2021-09-21T05:59:52ZCanada’s status quo election: Trudeau returned with another minority, faces uncertain future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422302/original/file-20210921-21-1deoiqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C1640%2C1085&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is joined on stage by wife Sophie Gregoire, left, and children Xavier and Ella-Grace, right, during his victory speech at Liberal party campaign headquarters in Montreal. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatric</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2021 Canadian election results <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-general-election-results-2021-1.6182364">were almost a mirror of the results of the 2019 vote</a>. After calling an election in the middle of a fourth COVID-19 wave, Justin Trudeau’s gamble for a majority government failed.</p>
<p>It won’t be an easy time for the re-elected Liberal minority government to lead. There are a multitude of crises the Liberals are returning to and must address — including the impact of climate change, housing affordability, opioid abuse and economic issues like deficit and debt management. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trudeau waves from the stairs of his campaign plane." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422265/original/file-20210921-27-5ozi3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422265/original/file-20210921-27-5ozi3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422265/original/file-20210921-27-5ozi3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422265/original/file-20210921-27-5ozi3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422265/original/file-20210921-27-5ozi3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422265/original/file-20210921-27-5ozi3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422265/original/file-20210921-27-5ozi3w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau leaves Vancouver the day before the federal election. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The next election will need to be held by 2025, unless the Liberal government is defeated in a non-confidence motion. It seems likely that by then, voters will have tired of Trudeau and seek a change of vision — if he’s still leader. </p>
<p>If the Liberals were to call another early election, it would likely devastate the party, perhaps in a manner similar to what happened to the Progressive Conservative Party <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/1993-tories-trampled-in-liberal-landslide">in 1993 when it went from a majority to holding two seats.</a></p>
<h2>The future of the party leaders</h2>
<p>A question that always arises in the immediate aftermath of elections is whether party leaders step down in the event of a loss or disappointing results. While some might argue a win is a win, the Liberal party may view the election results as a loss given that the goal was to win a majority. </p>
<p>The air may be running out of Trudeau’s tires, and it will likely be strategic for the Liberal party to change leaders for the next election given the general tendency of Canadians to tire of leaders who are in power for too long.</p>
<p>The Conservative party did not do as well as it had hoped. Polls had suggested the party might win a minority government. The next step for Leader Erin O’Toole will be to meet with caucus members to get their feedback on whether he should continue to lead the party. <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/full-transcript-erin-o-toole-applauds-conservative-gains-in-his-speech-says-there-s-more-work-to-do-1.5593727">In his election night concession speech</a>, he suggested he’s not going anywhere. But the decision is not ultimately his to make.</p>
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<img alt="O'Toole points to the crowd from a podium on the stage" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422290/original/file-20210921-13-128syop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422290/original/file-20210921-13-128syop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422290/original/file-20210921-13-128syop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422290/original/file-20210921-13-128syop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422290/original/file-20210921-13-128syop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422290/original/file-20210921-13-128syop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422290/original/file-20210921-13-128syop.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole gives his concession speech at his election night headquarters in Oshawa, Ont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>A challenge for O'Toole is the mini-identity crisis the party seemed to experience in the middle of the election campaign. O’Toole tried to build voter support <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/o-toole-campaigned-on-a-renewed-moderate-conservative-party-and-lost-what-now-1.5593278">by moving to the centre</a> from the traditional social and fiscal conservative foundation of the Alliance/Reform/Progressive Conservative alliance to a party that looked like the old Progressive Conservative Party.</p>
<p>The hardcore fiscal and social conservatives may find this policy about-face too much and seek someone who represents the core values of the Conservative Party. O’Toole may have a very difficult time gaining support from the powerful old guard. </p>
<p>Will the next election see Rona Ambrose, former interim leader of the Conservative Party, run to take over its helm? If so, the Liberals better be prepared for a fight — and likely a knock-down.</p>
<h2>Greens struggle, NDP in sweet spot</h2>
<p>It was a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/annamie-paul-green-election-1.6139001">difficult election for the Green Party</a>. The next few months will be a trying time for the Greens as they evaluate their performance in the 2021 election. </p>
<p>The Green Party suffered from an internal party crisis leaked to the public in a consistent manner since the new leader, Annamie Paul, was elected a year ago. <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-party-feud-with-leader-annamie-paul-festering-for-months-sources-1.5512937">The divisions had already existed prior to her winning the leadership, but she walked into a ring of fire — and her enemies were her own party</a>. </p>
<p>The Greens are <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-party-executive-launches-membership-review-of-its-own-leader-annamie-paul-1.5509199">having a leadership review</a> this fall and must figure out who they want to lead them into the next election and whether they can bridge the deep ideological divisions in the party. </p>
<p>But it may be moot. Given the lower popular support for the Green Party and Paul’s inability <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8206010/green-party-leader-annamie-paul-loses-bid-toronto-centre/">to win a seat in this election</a>, the writing is on the wall for her to step down.</p>
<p>NDP support was constant from the day the writ dropped right til election night. Similar to other parties, Jagmeet Singh’s support was similar to the 2019 results, despite the fact he had more experience running a national campaign and more money to support his campaign.</p>
<p>Yet the NDP is in an enviable position in the House of Commons compared to the other opposition parties. The Liberals need the NDP to support them, either formally or informally, and to pass legislation so they can hold onto power.</p>
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<img alt="Singh pumps his fist while holding his wife's hand" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422297/original/file-20210921-19-15jnlk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422297/original/file-20210921-19-15jnlk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422297/original/file-20210921-19-15jnlk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422297/original/file-20210921-19-15jnlk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422297/original/file-20210921-19-15jnlk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422297/original/file-20210921-19-15jnlk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422297/original/file-20210921-19-15jnlk3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his wife Gurkiran Kaur Sidhu arrive on stage to deliver his concession speech at his election night headquarters in Vancouver.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
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<p>This also means that the NDP can influence the type of legislation that is put forward and the content of those bills, so we may look forward to a Liberal government that’s even more progressive. The New Democrats know the Liberals would not dare to trigger another election any time soon.</p>
<p>Maxime Bernier, leader of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/ppc-leader-maxime-bernier-fails-to-win-seat-but-party-increases-popular-vote-1.5593636">failed to win his seat in Beauce, Que.</a>, nor did any other PPC candidate. Despite the party increasing its popular vote this election by a few percentage points, its future is up in the air given its primary issue was opposing COVID-19 vaccine mandates. What happens when the COVID-19 pandemic ends? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bernier speaks from a podium with a party banner in the foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422288/original/file-20210921-15-1okpm7r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422288/original/file-20210921-15-1okpm7r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422288/original/file-20210921-15-1okpm7r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422288/original/file-20210921-15-1okpm7r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422288/original/file-20210921-15-1okpm7r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422288/original/file-20210921-15-1okpm7r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422288/original/file-20210921-15-1okpm7r.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier speaks to supporters on election night from PPC headquarters in Saskatoon. The far right party increased its share of the popular vote, but elected no MPs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Liam Richards</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ruling as a majority?</h2>
<p>Canadians may be shaking their heads at the rationale for and the cost of this election but for those who support the Liberal platform, it’s not a bad outcome. If Liberal promises are kept, the national child care program, climate action and housing affordability policies could help many Canadians. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadian-election-2021-will-the-national-child-care-plan-survive-166084">Canadian election 2021: Will the national child-care plan survive?</a>
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<p>Yet did Canadians need another election to achieve this?</p>
<p>What Canadians definitely don’t want want is another election 16 months from now. In other words, we may have a Liberal government able to govern as a majority simply because of the lack of appetite for another election any time soon. </p>
<p>None of the opposition parties want to pull that trigger, especially if the pandemic lingers.</p>
<p>While this election was challenging for the Liberals, governing in the midst of several crises is going to be even more demanding and taxing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167966/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberly Speers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Justin Trudeau has been elected Canadian prime minister for the third time. But he failed to win the majority he wanted.Kimberly Speers, Public Administration Teaching Professor, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1672452021-09-07T14:33:07Z2021-09-07T14:33:07ZRhetoric Check: Parliament wasn’t toxic — Justin Trudeau just wants a majority<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419666/original/file-20210906-25-113agyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4193%2C2936&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau makes a stop in an airplane hangar during the Canadian federal election campaign in Mississauga, Ont. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette </span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/rhetoric-check--parliament-wasn-t-toxic---justin-trudeau-just-wants-a-majority" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Justin Trudeau is known for many things, but logical consistency isn’t really among them.</p>
<p>When Parliament recessed for the summer, the prime minister bemoaned the <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/toxicity-and-obstructionism-trudeau-tells-canadians-parliament-is-dysfunctional">“toxic” and “obstructionist”</a> conduct of the opposition, as if toxicity and obstructionism were somehow new to Parliament Hill. The minority Parliamentary environment, he intoned, was dysfunctional and the opposition was at best slowing down or at worst blocking his agenda outright.</p>
<p>Trudeau’s implication was clear — the Liberals need a majority government to carry through their vision for Canada. He was telegraphing his request for a dissolution of Parliament and a general election. </p>
<p>But now that he’s on the campaign trail, Trudeau wants Canadians to believe that over the past two years his minority government has had major if not historic achievements, notably <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2021/04/22/prime-minister-trudeau-announces-increased-climate-ambition">in the areas of climate change</a>, <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2021/06/01/statement-prime-minister-national-indigenous-history-month">Indigenous reconciliation</a> and <a href="https://liberal.ca/trudeau-champions-middle-class-at-debate/">improving conditions for the middle class</a>. </p>
<p>In particular, Trudeau has pointed <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-party-election-platform-1.6160918">to his government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic</a> through unprecedented borrowing and spending to keep Canadians and businesses afloat, most of which was approved by the very same Parliament that was dissolved owing to its alleged obstructionism. </p>
<h2>A need to be accommodating</h2>
<p>In reality, the opposition parties have been relatively accommodating to the government by passing the most consequential fiscal policies in a generation — the byproduct of which is <a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/2021/report-rapport/toc-tdm-en.html">the largest federal budget deficit at 15 per cent of gross domestic product</a> since the Second World War.</p>
<p>Trudeau also says he needs a new mandate for his <a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/fes-eea/2020/themes/building-back-better-rebatir-mieux-en.html">“build back better”</a> agenda — to seize the “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-child-care-liberal-convention-1.5980851">window of political opportunity</a>,” to quote Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. He says he wants to embark upon the most important <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/trudeau-is-off-to-a-slow-start/">general election since 1945</a>, drawing a comparison between post-war reconstruction and the Liberal’s post-pandemic agenda. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rhetoric-check-historically-how-important-is-the-2021-canadian-election-166312">Rhetoric Check: Historically, how important is the 2021 Canadian election?</a>
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<p>A more appropriate analogy, however, is <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2017/12/12/axis-powers-miscalculated-early-advantages-wwii-stanford-scholar-says/">1943, when the tide had turned in favour of the Allied powers during the Second World War</a>, yet there were still two years of fighting ahead before victory could be declared — which is likely what it will take before the COVID-19 pandemic is behind us too. </p>
<p>The truth about why the election was called is far less grandiose than Trudeau would have us believe. It’s happening now for one simple reason — to secure a majority government for the Liberals, thereby doing away with the accountability, stresses and inconveniences inherent in minority Parliaments. </p>
<h2>An insider’s view</h2>
<p>I have had the privilege of working for cabinet ministers in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(94)90034-5">both majority (1993-2003)</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Paul-Martin">minority (2004-06) governments</a>. Put simply, for politicians and their staff, minorities are much more work and stress, and a lot less fun. The prevailing view inside the government tends to be the sooner the minority is put to bed in favour of majority rule, the better. </p>
<p>In minority Parliaments, the government must be on the lookout constantly for common ground — usually with an opposition party that it can typically barely tolerate — and practise the art of compromise, including accepting amendments to its legislation. This is hard work, time-consuming and sometimes demoralizing. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419667/original/file-20210906-21-oe9vv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Paul Martin gestures while making a speech with the Canadian flag in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419667/original/file-20210906-21-oe9vv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419667/original/file-20210906-21-oe9vv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419667/original/file-20210906-21-oe9vv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419667/original/file-20210906-21-oe9vv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419667/original/file-20210906-21-oe9vv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419667/original/file-20210906-21-oe9vv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419667/original/file-20210906-21-oe9vv3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Paul Martin speaks at a rally in London, Ont., in December 2005.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(CP PHOTO/Frank Gunn)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I remember, for example, when the Paul Martin minority government suffered the indignities of negotiating the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news2/background/budget2005/liberal-ndp-deal.html">2005 budget</a> with its mortal enemy, the New Democratic Party, ultimately making nearly $5 billion in concessions to the NDP to secure the budget’s passage.</p>
<p>Minority governments also typically feel the need to listen to and accommodate “stakeholders” (otherwise known as special interests) beyond what is done in majority situations. This, too, is time-consuming, challenging and often frustrating for ministers and their staffs.</p>
<p>In minority Parliaments, most House of Commons committees are not controlled by the government. This can lead to inconvenient if not highly damaging studies, investigations and inquiries into government conduct (witness <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/we-charity-ethics-committee-1.5948050">the WE scandal hearings</a> last year, and <a href="https://www.aptnnews.ca/national-news/liberals-block-hearings-into-scathing-ethics-report-on-snc-lavalin-affair/">the SNC-Lavalin scandal hearings the year before</a>). </p>
<p>Probes like these would never happen in a majority Parliament where government members chair and dominate committees and set their agenda in line with what the prime minister wants.</p>
<h2>Travel curtailed</h2>
<p>Ministerial and backbench MP travel — one of the fun parts of the job — is significantly curtailed in minority Parliaments, where “all hands on deck” in the House is the basic philosophy. </p>
<p>I once had to cajole two opposition MPs to accompany the minister of national defence on an important foreign trip because the Prime Minister’s Office made the trip contingent upon bringing the opposition along to balance out the numbers in the House.</p>
<p>In short, to state the obvious, minority governments are much more accountable — for legislation, policy and operations — than majorities are. Those added accountabilities, and the ever-present threat of a loss of confidence (and a snap election), produces more work for and added stress on the prime minister, the cabinet and staff.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Justin Trudeau poses for a photo with a supporter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419668/original/file-20210906-17-1vjldbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419668/original/file-20210906-17-1vjldbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419668/original/file-20210906-17-1vjldbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419668/original/file-20210906-17-1vjldbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419668/original/file-20210906-17-1vjldbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419668/original/file-20210906-17-1vjldbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419668/original/file-20210906-17-1vjldbe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, left, poses for a photo with a supporter as he makes a stop during the Canadian federal election campaign in Brantford, Ont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s this environment of heightened accountability, a degree of instability, and most especially the inability of the government to do what it wants with impunity, that led Trudeau to ask the Governor General for a general election — plus <a href="https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Political-Package-2021-05-07-FR-with-tabs.pdf">public opinion polls</a> that showed the Liberals were getting close to majority government support levels. </p>
<p>Nothing more, nothing less.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167245/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eugene Lang is a Fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, and an Advisor to the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries. </span></em></p>A former political insider explains that the view inside government is generally the sooner minority rule is put to bed in favour of a majority, the better. That’s why Trudeau really called an election.Eugene Lang, Lecturer/Adjunct Professor, School of Policy Studies, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1283572019-12-08T13:29:22Z2019-12-08T13:29:22ZHow minority governments can influence foreign policy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305452/original/file-20191205-39018-wa3mp5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3601%2C2054&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canada's mission in Afghanistan under former prime minister Stephen Harper is an example of how a minority situation for a government can influence foreign policy. Harper is seen here in Kandahar in May 2011, shortly after winning a majority government. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Stephen Harper’s government was defeated in 2015, we tried to figure out what drove its thinking on foreign policy. We did so by comparing the government’s approach to a variety of international issues before and after the Conservatives won a majority of seats in the House of Commons in 2011. </p>
<p>What we determined in our book <a href="https://www.ubcpress.ca/the-harper-era-in-canadian-foreign-policy"><em>The Harper Era in Canadian Foreign Policy</em></a> is easy to capture in a soundbite, but takes more time to explain: Parliament matters when it comes to Canadian foreign policy, even though it doesn’t. </p>
<p>Here’s what we mean.</p>
<p>Constitutionally, foreign policy is a responsibility of the Canadian executive. Even though opposition parties in a minority Parliament can push foreign policy bills through the House, like the 2007 <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/k-9.5/20070622/P1TT3xt3.html">Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act</a> or the 2008 <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/O-2.8/FullText.html">Official Development Assistance Accountability Act</a>, Harper’s Conservatives proved that a minority government can ignore such legislation. </p>
<p>On the other hand, minority Parliaments often present incentives for governments to consult with the House of Commons more than they might when they hold a majority.</p>
<h2>The Tories and Afghanistan</h2>
<p>Consider the Conservatives’ approach to Afghanistan. One of the easiest ways to diffuse potential opposition criticism of the Canadian mission in Afghanistan was to hold a vote on extending it.</p>
<p>Once the Liberals voted in favour, it became significantly more difficult for them to criticize the mission as a whole. Philippe Lagassé, an international affairs expert at Carleton University, calls this tactic <a href="https://lagassep.com/2016/10/17/parliament-should-scrutinize-not-have-a-say-on-military-deployments/">laundering</a>.</p>
<p>During the Harper era, the government’s standing in the House of Commons also affected the pace of international negotiations. In a minority Parliament, ministerial travel is severely restricted. The government can’t risk having too many of its members unavailable for a surprise vote in the House of Commons. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305453/original/file-20191205-39032-ngxf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305453/original/file-20191205-39032-ngxf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305453/original/file-20191205-39032-ngxf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305453/original/file-20191205-39032-ngxf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305453/original/file-20191205-39032-ngxf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305453/original/file-20191205-39032-ngxf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305453/original/file-20191205-39032-ngxf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305453/original/file-20191205-39032-ngxf6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Derek Burney, former chief of staff to prime minister Brian Mulroney, is seen in this March 2009 photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There’s also reason to believe that the Conservatives’ standing in the House of Commons mattered when it came to the <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/protocol-protocole/policies-politiques/circular-note_note-circulaire_ftrn-001.aspx?lang=eng">amalgamation of the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade with the Canadian International Development Agency</a>.</p>
<p>Derek Burney, who ran the Harper government’s initial transition team, has noted that the prime minister contemplated the merger in 2006, but concluded that <a href="https://www.timescolonist.com/news/harper-transition-team-wanted-to-merge-cida-with-foreign-affairs-in-2006-1.96384">it was a bridge too far for a new government</a>, particularly, we might suggest, because of its minority situation.</p>
<p>Once the Conservatives gained their majority, they pushed the merger through easily.</p>
<h2>More willing to court controversy</h2>
<p>The Harper government’s willingness to take controversial public positions on human rights issues also intensified as its numbers in Parliament increased. In both 2006 and 2009, for example, the Conservatives did not rule out signing the Optional Protocol to the UN Convention against Torture. In 2013, however, they stated bluntly that the government <a href="https://quakerservice.ca/news/5390/">had no intention of signing any outstanding human rights treaties</a>. </p>
<p>And while some might attribute the change to a government that became more experienced, or to <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/john-bairds-black-and-white-vision-made-him-an-effective-minister/article22774054/">a more outspoken foreign minister in John Baird</a>, the extent of the government’s willingness to risk isolating itself within the international community appears to have been influenced, at least in part, by the sense of political security that came with its 2011 majority.</p>
<p>On the other hand, a number of foreign policy issues from the Harper era were immune from the concerns of parliamentary politics.</p>
<p>Take national defence, for example. Historically, Ottawa’s commitments to a robust defence capability have been shaped primarily by the state of the Canadian economy.</p>
<p>The Harper era was no different. Funding for national defence surged during the early years of budgetary surpluses, and slumped during the recession and subsequent campaign for balanced budgets.</p>
<h2>Environmental progress</h2>
<p>Environmental reform had a different determinant: the United States. The Harper government seemed quite clear that it would make changes to its environmental policies as slowly as Washington would allow, and it maintained that position through the minority and majority years.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305454/original/file-20191205-38984-1nt9axc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305454/original/file-20191205-38984-1nt9axc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305454/original/file-20191205-38984-1nt9axc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305454/original/file-20191205-38984-1nt9axc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305454/original/file-20191205-38984-1nt9axc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305454/original/file-20191205-38984-1nt9axc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305454/original/file-20191205-38984-1nt9axc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/305454/original/file-20191205-38984-1nt9axc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harper walks with U.S. President Barack Obama at the G7 meetings in Brussels in 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Discussions of foreign policy in parliamentary committees were different during the minority years, when the Conservatives could not control the committees’ agendas. But whether those debates actually caused the government to change its policy is less clear.</p>
<p>So what should we expect as Justin Trudeau’s government acclimatizes itself to its minority standing in the House of Commons, in addition to an unpredictable Senate?</p>
<p>If the Harper era is any guide, the makeup of Parliament will matter to Canadian conduct in world affairs, but there’s nothing official that forces a minority government to behave differently than a majority government on the international stage. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, minority Parliaments create a political environment that discourages cabinet from acting boldly.</p>
<p>We should therefore be prepared for an even more risk-averse and conservative foreign policy than the one we already have.</p>
<p>There is, of course, a different way that this could play out. Our political leadership could seize the opportunity to negotiate a non-partisan statement of Canada’s national interests.</p>
<p>Those interests could serve as a basis for any Canadian government, and thereby provide Global Affairs Canada with the stability and understanding that it needs to maximize Canada’s impact and effectiveness on the world stage.</p>
<p>This scenario is highly unlikely, but it doesn’t hurt to hope!</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Kukucha receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC), the Canadian Federation for the Humanities and Social Sciences Aid to Scholarly Publications Program, Fulbright Canada, and the University of Lethbridge. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Chapnick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Minority parliaments create a political environment that discourages cabinet from bold acts. That means Justin Trudeau’s foreign policy will like be more risk-averse that it was before.Adam Chapnick, Professor of Defence Studies, Royal Military College of CanadaChristopher Kukucha, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of LethbridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1259192019-11-06T22:20:23Z2019-11-06T22:20:23ZU.S.-Canada trade under Trudeau minority governments: Then and now<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299929/original/file-20191102-88414-117nrda.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=66%2C199%2C2524%2C1686&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pierre Trudeau is saluted by an RCMP officer as he carries son Justin to Rideau Hall in 1973, when the elder Trudeau was in a similar political situation as his son is today.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Peter Bregg</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Election season is over for Canadians — except for all of those continuing to follow the campaign trail to the White House. </p>
<p>The political situation Justin Trudeau finds himself in is strikingly similar to his father’s in the early 1970s. Canada is again facing alienation in the West, nationalism in Québec and impeachment to the south. The Richard Nixon tapes contained some <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/just-released-1971-recording-captures-talks-between-nixon-pompous-trudeau-1.755465">choice words</a> about Pierre Trudeau, and President Donald Trump has <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1005586152076689408?s=20%22%20/">publicly chastised</a> his son.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1005586152076689408"}"></div></p>
<p>In Justin Trudeau’s minority Parliament, alliances will need to be made and compromises brokered to pass legislation. </p>
<p>Minority governments are responsible for medicare, Canada Student Loans, the Canada Pension Plan, the flag, unification of the Armed Forces and official bilingualism. All of this happened under <a href="https://ipolitics.ca/article/remember-lester-pearson/">Lester B. Pearson’s minority governments</a> in the 1960s, and successes like these are the best-case scenario for Justin Trudeau’s minority government. </p>
<p>However, the focus 50 years ago seemed to be on domestic policies, not foreign. But ignoring foreign policy is the worst-case scenario in today’s minority situation.</p>
<h2>Seeking stability</h2>
<p>Tensions have flared between the U.S. and Canada in recent years, particularly after Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in 2018 resulted in billions of dollars of lost export revenue. The <a href="https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/controls-controles/steel_alum-acier_alum.aspx?lang=eng">tariffs were lifted in May</a>, supposedly clearing the way for <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6115024/usmca-ratification-justin-trudeau-nancy-pelosi/">ratification of the new Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement</a> by all three countries. Only Mexico has to date done so.</p>
<p>Discerning the intentions of our neighbours has always been a feature of the Canadian-American relationship, none more so than in trade. Anxieties over the relationship and the threat of American domination have been central to Canadian economic development for the last century.</p>
<p>The history is more than just a story of goods and services moving across a 8,891-kilometre-long border. It’s a story of how both countries have worked to know one another and live peacefully beside each other.</p>
<p>Canada sent its first three consuls general to New York, Chicago and San Francisco by 1948 to promote cross-border business and distinguish itself from Great Britain. Today, <a href="https://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/trade_commissioners-delegues_commerciaux/country-pays/united_states-etats_unis.aspx?lang=eng&_ga=2.156231283.992612766.1561386115-1985972173.1552598567#to">there are 16</a>.</p>
<p>In 1954, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce launched a public service campaign <a href="http://archive.macleans.ca/article/1963/4/20/what-americans-really-think-about-us">with a brochure entitled: <em>Are Canadians Really?</em></a></p>
<p>It talked about the myth that the Great Lakes never froze solid because of the warmth shared between Canadians and Americans. But as the editors asked, were the twitching lips of the neighbours smiles or gas pains?</p>
<h2>Canadian control</h2>
<p>Trying to address both elements of the relationship, Canadian governments have worked to strengthen trade relations and safeguard against America’s influence over their domestic markets via <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/economic-nationalism">economic nationalism</a>, the Canadianized term for protectionism. </p>
<p>At first, Canada worried about foreign investments in particular industries, like the railroads, and required that the majority of directors of any company that received government money could not come from outside the country.</p>
<p>Another approach was to ensure at least some firms in a given sector remained under Canadian control. This was achieved with amendments to the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/bank-act">Bank Act</a> that required 75 per cent Canadian ownership in financial services.</p>
<p>A third initiative involved the government pre-empting foreign control by way of public ownership, like the nationalized transportation services <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/air-canada">Air Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/canadian-national-railways">Canadian National Railways</a>.</p>
<p>Tariff reductions were the more outward-looking and reciprocal approach of the mid-1960s. The antecedent of NAFTA, and now the USMCA, originated in this period. The signing of the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/canada-us-automotive-products-agreement">Auto Pact</a> lowered trade barriers and integrated supply chains, a model that hadn’t been tried before in peacetime.</p>
<p>All of these policy experiments were anchored by the fundamental assumption that the U.S. would continue to move toward freer trade.</p>
<h2>Nixon’s ‘jump off the diving board’</h2>
<p>In the 1970s, Richard Nixon veered off course by ending the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/nixon-shock">link between the American dollar and gold</a> — the foundation of the international economic system since the end of the Second World War. It was, <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=Ay29AQAACAAJ&dq=Presidential+Economics:+The+Making+of+Economic+Policy+from+Roosevelt+to+Clinton.&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjDu8_Q1c7iAhXdGDQIHWX8Be8Q6AEILjAB">as the chairman of Nixon’s Council of Economic Advisers said</a>, “a jump off the diving board without any clear idea of what lay below.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300095/original/file-20191104-88399-1bomh0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300095/original/file-20191104-88399-1bomh0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300095/original/file-20191104-88399-1bomh0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300095/original/file-20191104-88399-1bomh0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300095/original/file-20191104-88399-1bomh0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300095/original/file-20191104-88399-1bomh0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300095/original/file-20191104-88399-1bomh0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=558&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nixon and Pierre Trudeau talk in Trudeau’s office in Ottawa in this April 1972 photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chuck Mitchell</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It was a move away from free trade, because it made the world economy more dependent on the vagaries of the U.S. dollar. Nixon’s New Economic Policy also included a 10 per cent tax on imports. </p>
<p>Trump has been replicating these “America First” moves and the stakes are just as high. According to Canada’s commerce department, the U.S. accounted for 70 per cent of the Canadian export market in the 1970s; today, the World Trade Organization puts the <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/canada_e.htm">percentage in the mid-70s</a>.</p>
<p>“The fact is that in recent months the world has entered a new phase in international trade.” This was the view from the father of socialized medicine, <a href="http://parl.canadiana.ca/view/oop.debates_HOC2803_09/453?r=0&s=1">Tommy Douglas, in the House of Commons</a>. He added:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“We are now playing a different ball game. For the moment at least, the United States has retreated into a citadel of protectionism.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Both Trump and Nixon saw import taxes as a way to address a trade deficit. To eliminate it, the United States would have to sell more to Canada than it buys. But Canada is the smaller country, and the revenue generated by the imbalance is necessary to service its debt to the U.S. </p>
<h2>Needed U.S. investment</h2>
<p>Without a trade deficit, Canada would be reliant on U.S. direct investment to grow its economy. These numbers reached staggering proportions in the late 1960s — as high as 99 per cent foreign ownership in Canada’s petroleum and coal industries. </p>
<p>Canadian legislators reacted by passing measures to protect Canadian culture and limit foreign investment. Pierre Trudeau explored markets beyond the U.S. and developed the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/foreign-investment-review-agency">Foreign Investment Review Agency</a> to monitor foreign ownership, ensuring it brought significant benefits with it. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299930/original/file-20191102-88419-15j6l3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299930/original/file-20191102-88419-15j6l3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299930/original/file-20191102-88419-15j6l3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299930/original/file-20191102-88419-15j6l3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299930/original/file-20191102-88419-15j6l3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299930/original/file-20191102-88419-15j6l3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299930/original/file-20191102-88419-15j6l3u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes part in an interview in Ottawa in December 2016. A picture of his father, Pierre Trudeau, in Guyana in 1974 hangs on the wall behind.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>His minority Parliament needed support from the left-leaning NDP. The New Democrats then pushed the government into stronger nationalist policies than the Liberals ever intended.</p>
<p>But most provinces <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/regional-disparity-in-canada-among-worst-in-oecd/article20959497/">took a regional approach</a> to trade. Nova Scotia was never going to limit foreign companies exploiting its natural resources just because Ottawa said so; it wanted jobs, and the province’s proximity to the eastern seaboard made it easy. North-south trade has always been the easier option. </p>
<h2>Welcoming to foreign money</h2>
<p>The agency created by Pierre Trudeau has since gone from limiting foreign money to welcoming it. And now, Canada is pursuing trade diversification beyond the U.S. via its <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/eng/minister-international-trade-diversification-mandate-letter-august-28-2018">international trade ministry</a>.</p>
<p>America’s central role in the global economy allows it to instil its anxieties internationally. All countries are dealing with how resurgent U.S. protectionism plays out in terms of immediate trade prospects and the long-range forecast for a freer trading world. </p>
<p>Protectionism had unintended consequences for Canadian policies in the 1970s and could again today.</p>
<p>There’s a different Trudeau in office, and another minority Parliament dealing with a fractious population. It’s easy to ignore foreign and trade policy when a motion of non-confidence could lead your government to fall any day. But focusing on domestic policy alone is not the answer. It’s a lesson both Canada and the United States should remember.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125919/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Levin Bonder's doctoral research has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>There’s a different Trudeau in office in 2019 than there was in 1972, but Justin Trudeau is also leading a minority government, just as his father did — and the Canada-U.S. relationship is key.Jennifer Levin Bonder, Junior Fellow at The Bill Graham Centre for Contemporary International History, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1259172019-10-31T22:13:55Z2019-10-31T22:13:55ZWhat a minority government could mean for affordable housing in Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299559/original/file-20191030-90765-1pj40ba.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3654%2C2434&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An aerial view of houses in Oshawa, Ont. is shown in November 2017. Canada's minority government could result in progress on affordable housing. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lars Hagberg</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Along with climate change, affordable housing <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/federal-election-campaigns-affordable-housing-1.5254614">was one of the big</a> <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5939532/ignored-ignited/">issues of the recent Canadian federal election</a>, with political parties scrambling to catch up with public opinion. </p>
<p>The widespread concern among the electorate should not have come as a surprise to politicians. Only in <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/unaccommodating">three per cent of neighbourhoods</a> across Canada can a full-time minimum wage earner afford a two-bedroom apartment. </p>
<p><a href="http://rentalhousingindex.ca/en/#comp_fed">In many of the ridings</a> with the tightest races in Toronto and Vancouver, more than a quarter of renters are paying over 50 per cent of their household income on rent plus utilities. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/canadian-housing/housing_rental_sep2019.pdf">Banks have calculated</a> rental housing deficits in the tens of thousands in Canada’s largest cities, which are causing disastrously low vacancy rates.</p>
<p>This broad-based consensus on the need for more affordable housing led to Canada’s <a href="https://caeh.ca/national-housing-debate/">first national election housing debate</a>, organized two weeks before the election by a coalition of unusual suspects from across the political spectrum: The Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness, the Canadian Housing and Renewal Association (the industry body for non-profit social housing) and the Cooperative Housing Federation of Canada joined up the with Canadian Real Estate Association and the Canadian Home Builders Association.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, affordable housing was not substantially addressed during the three federal leaders’ debates, a sign that parties may be ignoring <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/43k53d/its-shameful-that-affordable-rent-isnt-a-major-canadian-election-issue">the youth</a> <a href="https://www.gensqueeze.ca/2019_housing_analysis">vote at their future peril</a>.</p>
<h2>‘Stay the course’</h2>
<p>At the housing debate, a broad gulf was exposed not only between the two major parties, the Liberals and Conservatives, but also among Liberals and the three parties the newly elected minority government will need to have onside in the coming months and years.</p>
<p>The main message of the <a href="https://www.liberal.ca/our-plan-for-affordable-housing/">Liberal Party</a> housing platform is “stay the course.” Justin Trudeau’s first term saw the return of the federal government to a <a href="https://www.placetocallhome.ca/">national housing strategy</a> after <a href="http://www.urbancentre.utoronto.ca/pdfs/researchbulletins/CUCSRB38Hulchanski.pdf">three decades</a> of policy neglect and declining funds. </p>
<p>Just before the election call, Canada officially made housing a <a href="https://chra-achru.ca/blog_article/right-to-housing-is-now-law-in-canada-so-now-what-2/">federally legislated right</a>. This enables Canada to honour its international obligations under United Nations conventions. But how this legal change will play out in a global context of <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Housing/Pages/FinancializationHousing.aspx">increasing commodification of housing</a>, and the importance of adequate housing <a href="http://habitat3.org/the-new-urban-agenda/">to global sustainability</a> goals, is still unclear.</p>
<p>Much of the $55 billion that the Liberal government has committed to social and affordable housing <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/no-ottawa-has-not-put-forth-a-national-housing-strategy/article37173057/">will not be spent</a> until at least one election from now, and is also reliant on federal-provincial/territorial agreements that, in the significant <a href="https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/nhs/federal-provincial-territorial-housing-agreements">case of Québec</a>, are not yet signed. </p>
<h2>Doesn’t help the most vulnerable</h2>
<p>Third-party budget analysis also suggests that the National Housing Strategy does not substantially <a href="https://www.broadbentinstitute.ca/margotyoung/policy_brief_national_housing_strategy">increase support</a> for the individuals and families most vulnerable to homelessness.</p>
<p>The Conservatives took a radically different perspective when it came to housing policy, promising to <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/andrew-scheer-announces-four-point-plan-to-make-home-ownership-more-affordable/">further loosen restrictions on mortgages</a> in proposals that seemed similar to the <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/mortgages/subprime-mortgage-crisis-14704400">sub-prime</a> lending practices that precipitated the global financial crisis of 2007. </p>
<p>In contrast, the platforms of the <a href="https://www.ndp.ca/affordability">the NDP</a> and <a href="https://www.greenparty.ca/en/blog/2019-10-08/green-party-canada-housing-policies-closer-look">the Greens</a> promised to substantially increase non-profit housing production five-fold from the Liberal commitment of 100,000 new and renovated dwellings over the next 10 years. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299560/original/file-20191030-17888-gxkha8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299560/original/file-20191030-17888-gxkha8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299560/original/file-20191030-17888-gxkha8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299560/original/file-20191030-17888-gxkha8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299560/original/file-20191030-17888-gxkha8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299560/original/file-20191030-17888-gxkha8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/299560/original/file-20191030-17888-gxkha8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh speaks about affordable housing at the Mole Hill housing neighbourhood during a campaign stop in Vancouver, B.C., in October 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That’s nowhere near close <a href="http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2017/schl-cmhc/NH15-530-1972-eng.pdf">to the recommendation</a> made in 1972 by Michael Dennis and Susan Fish, Progressive Conservative housing policy analysts, to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation that 45 per cent of all new housing production be non-profit. But the NDP and Green proposals would have still allow scaling up social housing to about <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/march-2017/lessons-from-the-past-on-a-national-housing-strategy/">10 per cent</a> of production, a proportion achieved between 1965 and 1990. </p>
<p>This scale of non-profit housing production would help <a href="https://www.homelesshub.ca/about-homelessness/homelessness-101/what-needs-be-done-end-homelessness">eradicate homelessness</a> (as opposed to merely halving the rate, which is the current federal 10-year aim), and would spur the substantial <a href="https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/retrofitting/20707">retrofitting</a> of homes for energy efficiency, a <a href="https://www.ourcommons.ca/Content/Committee/421/ENVI/Reports/RP9989842/envirp17/envirp17-e.pdf">vital mechanism</a> if Canada is to achieve carbon reduction targets.</p>
<h2>Québec has it right</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.blocquebecois.org/2019/10/logement-social-on-va-sen-charger-au-quebec/">Bloc Québécois</a> housing platform, which also recommends increased federal spending on social housing, brings up the legitimate point that unlike most other provinces and territories, <a href="http://cmm.qc.ca/fileadmin/user_upload/documents/BC_QC_FINAL.pdf">Québec has had a strong affordable housing policy</a> over the last three decades of neglect.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-liberals-paved-the-way-for-the-blocs-return-125632">How the Liberals paved the way for the Bloc's return</a>
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<p>Its distinct — and successful — approach should be respected as part of any federal-provincial agreement. </p>
<p><a href="https://fcm.ca/en/focus-areas/housing">Canadian cities</a> that have been left to shoulder the burden of affordable housing and homelessness also want a seat at the policy table in relation to issues like developing <a href="http://rabble.ca/columnists/2019/04/community-land-trusts-model-community-led-land-stewardship">community land trusts</a> and implementing <a href="https://ville.montreal.qc.ca/portal/page?_pageid=9437,143289838&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL">inclusionary zoning</a></p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.atira.bc.ca/sites/default/files/Pan-Canadian_Symposium_Nov2018.pdf">gender-based intersectional analysis</a> has been emerging, pointing out that women-led households are three times more likely to be living in housing stress, that racism in landlord-tenant relations is endemic and that Indigenous and new migrant families are more likely to need larger units than those currently being developed at the low end of the market.</p>
<h2>Building bridges</h2>
<p>A Liberal minority government might increase the economic stimulus package embedded in investment in social and affordable housing, and in that way build bridges with the NDP, Green and BQ MPs. </p>
<p>Doing so, in addition to clamping down on out-of-control <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/news/election-2019/big-losers-in-canadian-election-could-be-foreign-real-estate-speculators">housing speculation</a>, would respond to the concerns of urban voters who helped get this government get elected in Toronto, Montréal and other large cities.</p>
<p>The left-of-centre parties, in turn, could make hay from the fact that a minority government was forced <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/minority-government-trudeau-scheer-singh-2019-election-1.5321140">yet again</a> to bring in progressive policies due to their influence. </p>
<p>Unlike divesting in the Trans Mountain pipeline, investment in affordable housing would not further enrage Alberta and Saskatchewan. And it would further create distance from a Conservative approach to housing, which would only help in terms of the next election.</p>
<p>There are many winners in a scenario where a minority government enacts stronger supports for non-profit housing. The biggest are those who would get secure and affordable homes.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carolyn Whitzman works with the Canadian Housing Research Network Hub based at the University of Ottawa, which receives funding from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. All opinions expressed in this article are her own.</span></em></p>There are many winners in a scenario in which Canada’s minority government enacts stronger supports for non-profit housing. The biggest are those who would get secure and affordable homes.Carolyn Whitzman, Visiting Professor, Urban Planning, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1254822019-10-22T19:55:15Z2019-10-22T19:55:15ZHow progressive voters can truly win in future Canadian elections<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298206/original/file-20191022-55701-tkbwva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=71%2C31%2C2744%2C2043&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters head to cast their ballot in Canada's federal election in Dartmouth, N.S. The Greens and the NDP need to work together to ensure they do better than just propping up Liberal minorities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have won a minority government. They hung on in Québec, Atlantic Canada and Ontario sufficiently to forestall a Conservative government of any sort. </p>
<p>Sadly, for my home province of British Columbia, it was not one of those rare elections where our vote was decisive. On the whole, however, progressive Canadians like me have some reason for cautious optimism.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/justin-trudeaus-job-just-got-a-lot-more-complicated-125431">Justin Trudeau's job just got a lot more complicated</a>
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<p>Although it’s clear that the NDP was badly damaged in Québec and are struggling to maintain their third-party status in that province against a resurgent Bloc Québécois, it is also clear the party has not been nationally decimated. </p>
<p>It’s equally evident that although the Greens did not have a major breakthrough, it will, like the NDP, have some influence over the new Liberal minority. </p>
<p>The projected results are probably somewhat of a relief for Jagmeet Singh, whose late campaign enthusiasm, debate performances and principled responses to hecklers make the case for him to remain as leader and perhaps run again in the next election. </p>
<p>Similarly, Elizabeth May’s Green Party continued to draw national support and to make gains even within the confines of an electoral system inhospitable to it. </p>
<p>Whether she’ll retain the support of her party and two-person caucus is uncertain. </p>
<h2>Supporting the Liberal minority</h2>
<p>Over the next several weeks and months however, everything will depend, for the NDP and Green leaders, on how influential they can make themselves and their parties in exchange for supporting a new Liberal minority. </p>
<p>The Bloc had an unprecedented breakthrough in Québec. That’s bad news for all Canadians, because it gives a boost to Québec’s controversial <a href="https://theconversation.com/clashing-rights-behind-the-quebec-hijab-debate-117711">secularism law</a> and emboldens other provinces to subvert Charter of Rights and Freedoms protections by invoking the notwithstanding clause.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-history-of-the-notwithstanding-clause-90508">The history of the notwithstanding clause</a>
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<p>This backlash against principles of religious freedom and equality of individuals, regardless of religion, is equally reflected in the extreme anti-immigration politics of Maxime Bernier, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/canadian-federal-election-2019-maxime-bernier-ppc-loss">who lost his seat.</a> </p>
<p>Thankfully, the Conservative Party of Canada has not been infiltrated by ultra-nationalism or extreme-right politics in the same way as the <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/republicans-no-longer-conservative-party_n_59767dd6e4b0e201d5776f8c">Republican Party</a> in the United States or the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-brexit-conservatives-far-right-in-charge-a7764986.html">Conservative Party</a> in the United Kingdom. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3576%2C2398&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3576%2C2398&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=578&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=578&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298203/original/file-20191022-55693-yo23s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=578&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Conservative leader Andrew Scheer appears on stage at Conservative election headquarters in Regina after losing the election to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although Andrew Scheer’s days as leader are probably now numbered, the Conservative Party of Canada will have to remain vigilant if it’s to avoid becoming a home for the far right. The longer it stays in opposition, the more difficult that will be. </p>
<p>It is difficult to imagine Trudeau’s minority government relying on the Bloc to prop them up, and this makes it likely that the NDP will play that role. There is every reason to believe that the result might be a stable government that better reflects the contemporary values of Canadian voters than the previous Liberal majority. </p>
<p>However, what remains troubling about the outcome of this election is that Trudeau and his party managed to maintain the support it has. </p>
<p><a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5966784/liberals-broken-promises/">Despite broken promises</a> on nation-to-nation negotiations with Indigenous Peoples, proportional representation and the environment, Trudeau has only been lightly rebuked by voters. Even revelations of photos featuring a younger Trudeau dressed in brownface and blackface did not ultimately end his viability as the highest profile leader in the country.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trudeaus-blackface-apology-rings-hollow-and-highlights-anti-arab-stereotypes-123891">Trudeau's blackface apology rings hollow and highlights anti-Arab stereotypes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There are many possible reasons for this. </p>
<p>One of them is that voters have simply forgiven Trudeau for his political conflicts of interest, broken campaign promises and history of racially insensitive costumes. </p>
<p>Another is that citizens simply no longer expect much of their politicians when it comes to personal integrity and ethical conduct. If accurate, that would demonstrate an alarming degree of voter cynicism. </p>
<p>More likely, however, is that the Liberal campaign strategy of scaring potential NDP and Green voters <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6028408/ndp-jagmeet-singh-strategic-voting/">into a strategic vote for their party worked again</a>, particularly in Ontario. This strikes me as a problem. Progressives should not have felt that they had no option but to vote again for Trudeau’s Liberals, despite their disappointment with his leadership. </p>
<h2>Another option</h2>
<p>There might have been another option and there still might be next time. </p>
<p>The NDP and the Greens should change their behaviour as parties going forward. Specifically, before the next election, the leaders of both parties should agree not to run candidates against each other for the express purpose of avoiding future vote-splitting. </p>
<p>In order to do this, the leaders of both major left-leaning parties would have to negotiate a protocol, based on a combination of external and internal polling data, as to how the country’s 338 ridings would be divided between the parties.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298207/original/file-20191022-55685-1dpq52x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Singh and May take part in the the federal leaders’ French-language debate. They should have worked together long before the writ dropped.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If neither Singh nor May were open to this, their leadership should be challenged by someone else within their party interested in forming a government in the next election. This is the only conceivable way for Canadians to see a genuine alternative to the left of the Liberals in the next election. </p>
<p>Dishearteningly, the current accommodation that appears to have been at least begrudgingly accepted by both the NDP and Greens, even before the first ballot was counted, was achieving king-maker status in a minority government led by the Liberals. </p>
<p>This might be a reasonable strategy under the circumstances, but it is hardly the stuff of visionary leadership. If May and Singh had held a leader’s summit before the writ was dropped, things might have turned out differently. </p>
<p>Minority governments have much to recommend them. In the absence of a clear majority, a country needs leadership willing to negotiate and compromise to govern. </p>
<p>However, the progressive left should not content itself with aiming to be a junior partner in Liberal minority governments. In the next election, they should seek to propose a principled, but realistic, alternative to the Liberals — one that can truly compete for power. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeffrey B. Meyers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The progressive left should not content itself with being a junior partner in Liberal minority governments. In the next election, they should seek to propose a principled, realistic alternative.Jeffrey B. Meyers, Lecturer, Faculty of Law, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1254312019-10-22T14:52:33Z2019-10-22T14:52:33ZJustin Trudeau’s job just got a lot more complicated<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298144/original/file-20191022-55650-lmxeu1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4720%2C2966&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Justin Trudeau delivers his victory speech in Montréal. Now that he's leading a minority government, Trudeau will have a more difficult job. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Justin Trudeau has held onto power, but his job is now much more challenging and will require innovative thinking.</p>
<p>Though the Liberals have a strong enough minority in terms of seat count to avoid having to form a coalition with any of the other parties, Trudeau cannot afford to be glib. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298145/original/file-20191022-55674-1krxdeb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298145/original/file-20191022-55674-1krxdeb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298145/original/file-20191022-55674-1krxdeb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298145/original/file-20191022-55674-1krxdeb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298145/original/file-20191022-55674-1krxdeb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298145/original/file-20191022-55674-1krxdeb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298145/original/file-20191022-55674-1krxdeb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/298145/original/file-20191022-55674-1krxdeb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This likely won’t happen again.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unlike 2015, he cannot claim a monopoly over the “progressive” vote, especially in light of well-documented gaffes like his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbmHVnA0JLg">trip to India</a> and his <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5961192/source-of-justin-trudeau-brownface-photo-claims-to-be-motivated-by-publics-right-to-know/">brownface/blackface</a> scandal.</p>
<p>The message from voters is that they are not happy with the Liberals. But that doesn’t mean that voters like the Conservatives, as Andrew Scheer’s poor showing in seat count demonstrate. </p>
<p>Although this election did not lead to the “<a href="https://globalnews.ca/video/6062336/ndp-hopes-singh-surge-will-steal-away-seats-from-liberals-greens">Singh Surge</a>” in seat count that some had suggested, the NDP and the Bloc Québécois have seen their actual power and influence in Parliament grow considerably.</p>
<p>Though weakened in terms of their overall number of seats, the composition of Parliament means that the Liberals have a choice to make — go it alone on an issue-by-issue basis that borrows support on right-wing policies with the Conservatives and left-leaning policies from the NDP, or commit to a more focused and progressive agenda that would allow a greater degree of stability in a more formalized arrangement with the NDP.</p>
<h2>Not as divided as it might seem</h2>
<p>Canada may seem a divided country, but the partisan blocs aren’t as uniform as the electoral map makes them look.</p>
<p>You’d think there wasn’t a progressive voter in the Prairies, nor a strong federalist politician in Québec, if you glanced at seat counts without looking at the percentage of voters whose perspectives get dropped entirely under our first-past-the-post plurality system. In fact, it’s not truly the case.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-is-it-really-a-country-divided-118514">Canada: Is it really a country divided?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Liberals lost long-standing party stalwarts, like Saskatchewan’s Ralph Goodale, and now have no representatives in the Prairies. That means Trudeau may have to consider some unusual measures, such as appointing a cabinet minister from the Senate, in order to ensure regional representation in the coming Parliament. </p>
<p>This is not commonly done, but the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/senate">first Canadian cabinet</a> had five of 13 ministers appointed from the Senate, and the trick has been used by Liberal and Conservative prime ministers in the past to gain regional representation in the West and Québec respectively. </p>
<p>In 1979, for example, former prime minister Joe Clark appointed Québec <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Flynn">Sen. Jacques Flynn</a> minister of justice because of his lack of representation in that province. </p>
<p>This is all perfectly lawful, but doing so underscores the return to political regionalism in Canada, with a Tory bloc from the Prairies to Alberta and a sizable win by the BQ in Québec.</p>
<p>What seems clear from the delivery of the minority Parliament — <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-minority-governments-1.5157390">alongside four minority governments at the provincial level</a> — is that parties need to find ways to collaborate more. </p>
<p>This is a good thing, as the whole point of democracy is to converse and negotiate. </p>
<h2>Finding common ground</h2>
<p>While the most pressing issues from the left and right seem diametrically opposed — for example, addressing the climate emergency on the left and building pipelines on the right — there are other important issues to focus on, such as putting an end to boil water advisories across the country, investing in child care and health care, and revisiting the problem of democratic accountability by looking at electoral reform. </p>
<p>It’s quite unlikely that the Trudeau Liberals would revisit that last point in light of their past <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/the-liberals-broke-their-promise-on-electoral-reform-will-it-hurt-them-in-2019">transgressions on the subject</a>, but doing so would go a long way towards more accurately reflecting the kind of representation Canadians vote for. </p>
<p>It would also prevent the next prime minister from having to appoint ministers from an un-elected Senate in order to ensure regional representation in cabinet.</p>
<p>The election is over, but the urgent issues facing Canada during the election have not stopped being urgent. The prime minister is going to have to reinvent himself and commit to some important compromises to earn the stable support of the left-leaning parties. Hopefully, this will be to Canada’s collective benefit. </p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125431/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ajay Parasram does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The urgent issues facing Canada during the election are not less urgent now that the election is over. The prime minister is going to have to reinvent himself and commit to some important compromises.Ajay Parasram, Assistant Professor and Founding Fellow, MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/975272018-06-01T14:06:30Z2018-06-01T14:06:30ZWith Wynne conceding defeat, this is what could happen after Ontario votes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221432/original/file-20180602-142089-xdf8q5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Just a few days before the June 7 election, the Ontario Premier has publicly admitted her party won't win. She is urging voters to return enough Liberal candidates to ensure a minority PC or NDP government.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Ryan</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Kathleen Wynne has publicly conceded she won’t be premier after Ontario residents go to the polls this Thursday. The <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/wynne-liberals-ontario-election-minority-government-1.4689222">unusual acknowledgement came with a plea from the premier</a> to ask voters to elect enough of her Liberal candidates to ensure a minority NDP or Progressive Conservative government.</p>
<p>The move by Wynne was another unexpected development in a campaign that has had many surprises since it started a few weeks ago. And although the results of the election will be known Thursday, the people of Ontario may have to wait a while to know who will form what sort of government. </p>
<p>Clearly, if one party wins a majority of the seats, they will form the government, <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/">but polls to date suggest the results may not be that straightforward</a>. The Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats are within the margin of error of a tie in popular vote, but the trailing Liberals could still have a significant impact on the final result.</p>
<p>A further complication, of course, is the fact that results will vary considerably from riding to riding.</p>
<h2>Ridings in play</h2>
<p>Since the last election, the boundaries of Ontario constituencies have been redrawn, <a href="http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/whats-new-for-ontarios-2018-election">so it’s not easy to translate past results</a> into current predictions.</p>
<p>However, we can get a sense of the complexity of the situation when we realize 39 seats in the last election were won by a Liberal candidate with the NDP in third place. In those ridings, a collapse of the Liberal vote could result in the PCs winning the seat, even if much of the Liberal vote went to the NDP.</p>
<p>In addition, there were at least 11 seats last election <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4228557/david-akin-20-closest-ridings-ontario/">where all three of the principal parties had enough votes</a> that a small change could alter the order of how the parties finish this time around.</p>
<p>And there are seats where the disappearance of a sitting member (such as the NDP member Jagmeet Singh’s <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/jagmeet-singh-resigns-seat-in-ontario-legislature-after-winning-federal-ndp-leadership/article36678879/">move to federal politics</a>, the retirement of former PC leader Tim Hudak and the retirement of several Liberal cabinet members) may change the calculus for voters in those seats. </p>
<p>And to repeat — all the riding boundaries have changed. With the above caveats in mind, what can we say about where votes may go if people are leaving the Liberals?</p>
<h2>Changing parties</h2>
<p>Before the 1980s, many political scientists believed people’s associations with political parties were formed almost at birth — inherited from parents and reinforced by stable communities in which they lived. </p>
<p>But since then we have come to believe party affiliations, where they exist at all, are quite volatile. Communities change rapidly and even political parties change names, policies and campaign styles from year to year.</p>
<p>Knowing now that people can vote differently from election to election, we’ve become more interested in what people’s second-choice party is, assuming they have a first. That might give us some idea where they will move if they leave their preferred alternative.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221286/original/file-20180531-69501-1enwduk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221286/original/file-20180531-69501-1enwduk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221286/original/file-20180531-69501-1enwduk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221286/original/file-20180531-69501-1enwduk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221286/original/file-20180531-69501-1enwduk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221286/original/file-20180531-69501-1enwduk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221286/original/file-20180531-69501-1enwduk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario Premier William Davis smiles after being re-elected in his Brampton riding in the Ontario provincial election on June 9, 1977.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Ron Poling</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Back in 1977 a colleague and I, conducting an Ontario voter survey, posed a question about second choices. People who told us they planned to vote for the NDP that year divided about half and half between the Liberals and Conservatives as their second choice; Conservative voters gave the Liberals their second choice by a two-to-one margin over the NDP, and Liberal voters gave their second choice to the PCs by about the same margin.</p>
<p>One could have concluded the NDP had very little likelihood of success in that circumstance, but 13 years later, in 1990, <a href="https://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/orange-shockwave-how-ontario-got-its-first-ever-ndp-government">they formed the government</a>. And I suspect the second choices of Ontario voters are very different now that Doug Ford, rather than Bill Davis, is leading the PCs. </p>
<p>That means it’s hard to say where Liberal voters will go in any particular riding if the party’s share of the vote declines as predicted. So a number of possible scenarios can be imagined.</p>
<h2>Majority or minority government?</h2>
<p>It’s clear the Liberals can’t recover enough to win a majority of the legislature’s seats, and given the concentration of the NDP vote in particular areas, it would also be surprising as well if the New Democrats won a majority. (Of course, we were surprised in 1990 when the NDP captured a solid majority with under 39 per cent of the popular vote.) If there is a majority government, it seems most likely it will be Conservative.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221287/original/file-20180531-69484-1oo27zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221287/original/file-20180531-69484-1oo27zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221287/original/file-20180531-69484-1oo27zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221287/original/file-20180531-69484-1oo27zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221287/original/file-20180531-69484-1oo27zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221287/original/file-20180531-69484-1oo27zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221287/original/file-20180531-69484-1oo27zq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ontario Premier David Peterson (right), NDP Leader Bob Rae and Conservative Leader Mike Harris (left) stand together prior to a leaders debate in August 1990. The NDP shocked pundits to win the election, the first time New Democrats had formed a government in Ontario.</span>
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<p>The possibilities for minority government are much more numerous. Suppose the PCs win a plurality of seats, but not a majority. They would then have a legitimate claim that Ontario’s lieutenant governor should invite Ford to form a government. </p>
<p>Wynne will still be premier until a new government is sworn in. If her party was to make a late surge and hold on to some of its seats, she could ask that the legislature be called into session and could attempt to make an agreement with the NDP (or less likely, the PCs) to hold onto office.</p>
<h2>NDP got no credit after coalition</h2>
<p>If she winds up in third place in terms of seats however, her claim to continued power would be significantly weaker. The closest (though not perfect) analogy is found after <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/bob-rae-and-ontarios-coalition-government">the election of 1985 when the PCs</a>, having lost a majority, asked for the legislature’s confidence in the hopes of continuing to govern.</p>
<p>They had managed minority governments from 1975 to 1981, and might have hoped to do so again. However, David Peterson’s Liberals and Bob Rae’s NDP agreed to withhold confidence from the PC government. </p>
<p>They settled on an accord by which the NDP would agree not to cast non-confidence votes against the Liberal government, headed by Peterson, for two years in return for the Liberals’ agreeing to pursue an agenda on which the two parties could agree.</p>
<p>At the end of the two years, the Liberals coasted to a sizeable majority, leaving the NDP to wonder why they got no credit for the accomplishments of the accord.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ndp-s-horwath-says-no-way-to-coalition-with-wynne-liberals-1.4661915">NDP Leader Andrea Horwath has expressly ruled out</a> a coalition with the Liberals, though that position makes sense if you think you can get a majority, but less sense if it means Ford would consequently become premier. </p>
<p>If the NDP holds a plurality of seats, or even the second-largest number of seats, a prudent strategy might well be to seek some sort of agreement from the Liberals (as an agreement with the PCs seems very unlikely). The Liberals may resist such a call, however, remembering the NDP’s fate following the 1985-1987 coalition government, and then another election could come sooner than we think.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97527/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Drummond received funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is currently a member of the NDP.</span></em></p>Ontario voters head to the polls on Thursday. Public opinion surveys and redrawn provincial ridings are making it difficult to predict the race’s outcome.Robert Drummond, University Professor Emeritus, Politics and Public Policy/Administration, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/922982018-03-04T02:54:21Z2018-03-04T02:54:21ZHodgman rides Tasmanians’ disdain for minority government to a second term in office<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208781/original/file-20180303-65541-vtrnwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Tasmanian election result was an emphatic win for Will Hodgman, but he lost a fair bit of skin along the way.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Julian Smith</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In an era of single-term governments and growing electoral volatility in Australia, the return of Will Hodgman’s Liberal government at Saturday’s Tasmanian election with <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018/results/">more than 50% of the primary vote</a> is significant – and will have national implications.</p>
<p>The Turnbull government will take comfort from a result that demonstrates voters – even in left-leaning Tasmania – are prepared to re-elect a competent Liberal government that has delivered strong economic and employment growth.</p>
<p>It was a strong result for the Liberals. However, the outcome was shaped as much by Tasmania’s distinctive political practices and local issues as it was by national trends.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/removing-pokies-from-tasmanias-clubs-and-pubs-would-help-gamblers-without-hurting-the-economy-90019">Pokies</a>, housing, hospitals, and – at the 11th hour – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/02/tasmanian-liberal-government-promises-to-soften-gun-laws">watering down gun laws</a> might have been the specific issues that dominated the campaign, but the decisive factor was Tasmanians’ enduring apprehension about minority government.</p>
<p>The legacies of Labor-Green minority government of the early 1990s and between 2010 and 2014 cast a long shadow during the 2018 campaign. Both periods are associated with economic decline, rising unemployment, and budget cuts. </p>
<p>While there is little evidence to suggest minority government has been a cause of poor economic outcomes in Tasmania – it is more that these governments were unlucky and found themselves in charge after national downturns – the fact remains that Tasmanians have a strong preference for majority government.</p>
<p>Given this history, undecided Tasmanian voters tend to back the major party that’s most likely to form majority government. This was evident in both 2006 and 2014, and was always going to be a feature of the 2018 campaign given memories of the 2012-13 recession in Tasmania are still fresh in voters’ minds. And the Liberal government, which was elected in 2014, has delivered strong economic growth. </p>
<p>It is this bandwagon effect that helps explain why support for the government increased by ten points over the course of the campaign, rather than going to minor parties – as has been the case elsewhere.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-romp-to-emphatic-victory-in-tasmanian-election-92180">Liberals romp to emphatic victory in Tasmanian election</a>
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<h2>What now for the Liberals?</h2>
<p>The final result was an emphatic win for Hodgman. But it is also fair to say he lost a bit of skin along the way, due to the Liberals’ big-budget, brutally effective advertising campaign seeming to have been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-24/labor-will-win-against-cashed-up-liberals-tas-party-pres-says/9481524">funded by gaming interests</a>.</p>
<p>The reality is that Tasmania remains deeply divided on pokies and the means the gaming industry uses to protect its interests.</p>
<p>Tasmanians voted for political and economic stability on Saturday, but an overwhelming majority <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/tasmania-2018-commissioned-pokies.html">support Labor’s policy</a> of phasing pokies out of pubs and clubs over a five-year period.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/removing-pokies-from-tasmanias-clubs-and-pubs-would-help-gamblers-without-hurting-the-economy-90019">Removing pokies from Tasmania's clubs and pubs would help gamblers without hurting the economy</a>
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<p>The pokies debate is far from over. Hodgman must commit to open and transparent government, and subject his gaming policies to full parliamentary scrutiny in an attempt to regain the electorate’s trust. Opposition parties also have a role to play, and must be willing to compromise to find some middle ground.</p>
<h2>The election’s losers</h2>
<p>The result wasn’t a disaster for Labor. </p>
<p>Rebecca White, after securing the Labor leadership only a year ago, performed strongly during the campaign and has consolidated her credentials as a future premier. That she will be leading a stronger opposition bolstered by handful of up-and-coming new MPs also bodes well for Labor’s future.</p>
<p>The real losers in the election were the Greens and Jacqui Lambie. </p>
<p>In contrast to their success in inner-Melbourne and Sydney, the Greens have been struggling in Tasmania in recent years. The explanation for their decline in their former heartland can be attributed to the legacies of the last government, the absence of a high-profile local environmental issue, and that Labor, under White, has championed many of their core progressive causes.</p>
<p>Lambie and her party could have been the wildcard of this election, but she has had a tough summer and will have to fight hard to salvage her political career. Had Lambie herself run as a candidate on Saturday, it’s likely she would have been elected – and could have held the balance of power in the lower house. </p>
<p>Strangely, given that personalities and name recognition are so important in Tasmanian elections, she ran a ticket of grassroots candidates under her Jacqui Lambie Network banner that, as expected, failed to secure any serious support.</p>
<h2>Lessons for the future</h2>
<p>As the dust settles, we can draw a few conclusions from the Tasmanian election result.</p>
<p>Above all else, Tasmanians are a pragmatic bunch and are prepared to reward a government that delivers political stability and good economic outcomes.</p>
<p>The campaign also highlighted the power of sectional interests – be they mining, gaming or other actors – in Australian politics. The collective health of our democracy depends on curbing the influence of these groups at both the state and federal level.</p>
<p>Given the distinctive dynamics of Tasmanian politics, not too much can be read into the swing away from minor and protest parties and back to the majors. Perhaps the real test of the national political mood will come in South Australia on Saturday week.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92298/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eccleston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Pokies, housing, hospitals and gun laws might have been the specific issues that dominated the campaign, but the decisive factor was Tasmanians’ enduring apprehension about minority government.Richard Eccleston, Professor of Political Science; Director, Institute for the Study of Social Change, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/877782017-11-20T13:45:19Z2017-11-20T13:45:19ZGermany enters political no-man’s land as Angela Merkel wrestles with election fallout<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195435/original/file-20171120-18533-imjg66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/german-bundestag-constitutional-legislative-building-berlin-661559881?src=cK6drqDK8yNLJzAQWmwLpg-4-35">immodium/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Angela Merkel is in trouble. Serious trouble. Negotiations to form the next German government have collapsed dramatically. Quite where the chancellor, and indeed Germany, go from here is anything but certain.</p>
<p>It wasn’t meant to be like this. Although the Christian Democrats (CDU) performed poorly in the federal <a href="https://theconversation.com/germanys-afd-how-to-understand-the-rise-of-the-right-wing-populists-84541">election of September 24</a> (gaining just 32.9% of the vote), the post-election expectations were nonetheless clear. Merkel would get representatives from the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria (CSU) and two smaller parties (the liberal FDP and the Greens) around a table and, over time and at their own pace, they would knuckle down and form Germany’s first “Jamaica Coalition” – so-named as the parties’ colours are the same as those on the Caribbean island’s flag.</p>
<p>Those expectations have now gone up in smoke. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42047532">The FDP walked out</a>. Christian Lindner, the FDP’s leader, claimed that there simply wasn’t enough common ground for the parties to draw up a coalition agreement that everyone could sign up to. “Better not to govern at all than to govern badly,” as he dramatically put it. </p>
<h2>Tough choices</h2>
<p>Where to now? Essentially, German politicians have three options. </p>
<p>First, there is another plausible majority in the German parliament. Merkel’s Christian Democrats could look to govern with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD). The parties have a majority in parliament and they have experience of working together. Indeed, they did that in the four year period from 2013-2017. </p>
<p>However, the SPD has made it (crystal) <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-coalition-martin-schulz-let-germany-vote-again-if-merkel-talks-fail/">clear</a> that it’s not up for that. The Social Democrats were humbled at the last election, polling 20.5%; a historic low. Governing alongside Merkel has done the party little political good and a period of internal rejuvenation is badly needed. As recently as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/19/german-coalition-talks-close-to-collapse-angela-merkel">this weekend</a> Martin Schulz, the SPD leader, reemphasised that. </p>
<p>Given that, Merkel could try to govern without a majority in the Bundestag. Minority governments are not uncommon across mainland Europe, and the Nordic countries have often shown that these administrations can be successful. The government simply seeks majority support for each bill it presents to parliament; sometimes Merkel would look to persuade the Social Democrats to support her, on other occasions she’d look to one (or more) of the smaller parties. </p>
<p>Such an idea remains, however, anathema to many in Germany. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic">Weimar Republic</a> existed over 70 years ago, but the weakness of successive minority administrations led ultimately to its collapse and to the ushering in of the far right and ultimately to World War II. Germany has not had a minority government since. The idea of a government existing on the basis of ever-shifting majorities in parliament therefore leaves many feeling deeply uneasy.</p>
<h2>Merkel’s future in doubt?</h2>
<p>The third option is for new elections. But this is not nearly as straightforward as outside observers might think. The chancellor can indeed engineer a lost confidence vote in parliament that would trigger new polls, but the federal parliament hasn’t formally elected Merkel chancellor yet. Until it does, that’s not an option for her. </p>
<p>The federal president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, could decide that new elections are the cleanest way to solve the impasse. Even then, there are constitutional problems; German politicians would have to come together in parliament and a majority would (twice) have to fail to support Merkel. There would then have to be a third round of voting where (one assumes) Merkel’s CDU/CSU colleagues would support her whereas parliamentarians from other parties would not. </p>
<p>It’s at this point that the president would step in; he would either formally nominate Merkel as the head of a minority government or he’d decide that that government would be neither strong nor stable and call for a new election within 60 days. Either way, Steinmeier’s role in sorting this mess out is an important one.</p>
<p>The option of holding another election would appear to be the most logical (if constitutionally cumbersome) way of proceeding, but there is a further problem. It is not at all clear that any new election would deliver a result that was much different to that of September 24. Germany could effectively end up either in the same place again or, and this is something that many fear, the far-right Alternative For Germany (AfD) could be the main beneficiary. </p>
<p>Furthermore, Steinmeier has already sent subtle messages to the parties saying that they need to be statesmanlike, knuckle down and simply find a way to agree. It’s not implausible that he’ll simply tell them to turn around and get back to the negotiating table. </p>
<p>Germans are not getting the government they thought they were going to get, and it is not at all clear what should or will happen next. All three scenarios outlined above are unpalatable, but Germany clearly cannot stay in limbo indefinitely. The chances of new elections have undoubtedly increased, but they are not a forgone conclusion. </p>
<p>Could a CDU/CSU/Green minority government, supported implicitly by the SPD from the backbenches, be the way forward? Some 48 hours ago no one would have said yes. Now, it’s at least plausible if not probable. If a new election happens, will Merkel be leading the CDU in to it? Probably, yes, but by no means certainly. Germany has suddenly gone from a country of boring politics to one where politics has turned in to high drama.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dan Hough has received funding from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD)</span></em></p>German chancellor is running out of options to form a viable government.Daniel Hough, Professor of Politics, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/792932017-06-12T12:59:31Z2017-06-12T12:59:31ZCan a minority Conservative government survive? Let’s look at the maths<p>Following the unexpected failure of the Conservatives to secure a majority in Theresa May’s snap <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/election-2017">general election</a>, the UK has its second hung parliament in seven years. With 318 seats, the Conservatives fell eight seats short of a majority, though in reality they are four short, given the <a href="https://theconversation.com/fighting-an-election-only-to-refuse-a-seat-sinn-fein-and-westminster-abstention-76963">abstentionist policy</a> of Sinn Féin, which won seven seats. Labour, with 262 seats, fell short by 60. Attention naturally focused first on whether the Conservatives could form a government.</p>
<p>The available options were a formal coalition with another party or a Conservative minority government. The prospects of a Conservative-led coalition were limited. After the damage inflicted on the Liberal Democrats by their <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3ca653f0-e445-11e4-9039-00144feab7de?mhq5j=e1">coalition deal</a> with the Conservatives in 2010-15, the centrist party ruled out any reprise. There was also no chance of a Conservative deal with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-voters-rewrite-a-well-worn-script-79201">Scottish National Party</a> (SNP), which won 35 seats but which is resolutely opposed to the Tories on both constitutional and economic questions. It appears that no one has even contemplated a grand coalition between Labour and the Conservatives, an arrangement that works in Germany but which is alien to the UK other than in wartime.</p>
<p>That left one coalition option for the Conservatives – involving Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which won ten seats. While that would have locked in the DUP to unpopular decisions, it appears to have been opposed by many Conservatives. It would have been a particularly difficult pill to swallow for those critical of the DUP’s socially conservative stance on same-sex marriage and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-more-power-for-the-dup-is-bad-news-for-abortion-rights-79267">abortion</a>.</p>
<p>Theresa May, the prime minister, has therefore sought to form a minority government, relying on support from the DUP. If it entails a “supply-and-confidence” agreement, then the DUP would support the government in confidence votes, including the Queen’s speech (which sets out the government’s legislative programme), and on financial votes, particularly the budget. All other votes would be decided on a case-by-case basis. In return, the DUP would hope to extract some <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-the-dup-will-want-in-return-for-rescuing-a-conservative-government-79222">policy concessions</a>, probably on public spending and welfare.</p>
<h2>Is a minority government unstable?</h2>
<p>The predominant view seems to be that minority governments are alien to Britain’s majoritarian political culture and liable to be unstable. Indeed, an early general election to break the deadlock has already been mooted. However, minority governments are common in Europe. There is currently one in Denmark, and a minority coalition in Sweden, for instance.</p>
<p>The stability of minority governments can be affected by a number of variables. The first is whether the government finds itself ideologically positioned in between parties to its left and right, and thereby able to play them off against each other. This “<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-do-minority-governments-survive-39752">median legislator theorem</a>” predicts that such governments can be stable.</p>
<p>If the DUP is regarded as being to the right of the Conservatives while all other parties are to the left, then the Conservatives do indeed control the median legislator (the 322nd MP in a left-right ranking of all 643 non-abstentionist MPs). That implies they have great bargaining power.</p>
<p>However, while that applies on social issues, where the DUP are to the right, it is probably not the case with economic policy and Brexit. Here, the DUP holds more statist and soft-Brexit positions. That would make the Conservatives the most right-wing party and not in control of the median legislator. It’s one reason why the government might end up watering down Brexit.</p>
<p>A second factor affecting the stability of a minority government is its degree of internal unity. If even a few Conservative MPs are willing to rebel on certain issues, the government could be defeated. A minority administration requires a very effective whipping operation in parliament and willingness by the government to listen to its MPs – and those of other parties.</p>
<p>The third factor is the confidence and supply agreement, which will allow the government to function in a basic way, passing its budget and ensuring its own survival. But votes on all other matters would not be covered, and so the government would need to build new majorities on a case-by-case basis. Again, parliamentary management will be crucial because parliament becomes stronger in relation to the executive.</p>
<h2>Any other options?</h2>
<p>Some have suggested the possibility of a minority Labour government, backed by the SNP and the Liberal Democrats. However, it would still need the support of the DUP – which might well be possible on economic matters, although the DUP wants nothing to do with Jeremy Corbyn.</p>
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<p>One potential problem with a Labour-led minority government follows from the new procedures on “<a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/bills/public/english-votes-for-english-laws/">English votes for English laws</a>”. On bills or sections of bills relating solely to England (or England and Wales), MPs for English (or English and Welsh) constituencies possess a veto as they must pass consent motions before they are voted on by all UK MPs. In the election, the Conservatives won 297 of the 533 English constituencies, a majority of 61, and in England and Wales, they won 305 out of 573 seats, a majority of 37. In the event of a minority Labour administration at Westminster, these Conservative MPs would be able to block a Labour government’s English (and English and Welsh) bills, including its plan to abolish tuition fees.</p>
<p>Minority government will be a challenge in a majoritarian setting and another election cannot be ruled out. However, we shouldn’t automatically assume that it will fail, not least because the Conservatives will not want an early election unless they are confident of winning.</p>
<p>The 2010-15 coalition survived predictions it would not last because the participants learnt how to make it work. With compromise, intelligent party management, and possibly under a new prime minister, the same could be true of this experiment in minority government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79293/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The stability of Theresa May’s administration depends on several variables.Tom Quinn, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/671662016-10-31T18:51:06Z2016-10-31T18:51:06ZEthiopia’s state of emergency: both sides are determined to fight to the finish<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/143416/original/image-20161027-11256-zjn5ma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Demonstrators chant slogans while flashing the Oromo protest gesture during Irreecha, the thanksgiving festival of the Oromo people, in Bishoftu town, Oromia region, Ethiopia, October 2, 2016. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Tiksa Negeri</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Waves of protests have gripped Ethiopia since last <a href="http://ecadforum.com/2015/11/30/oromo-students-protest-in-mattu-ethiopia/">November</a>. In response the government has declared a six month <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2016/10/09/ethiopia-declares-6-months-state-of-emergency-over-oromia-protests/">state of emergency</a>. In an interview with The Conversation Africa’s Samantha Spooner, Asafa Jalata describes the impact of the state of emergency and what it could mean for the future of the country.</em></p>
<p><strong>Who are the main players and what are the main grievances of the Ethiopian protest movement?</strong></p>
<p>The Oromo protest movement emerged in November 2015. It has been fomenting for decades because the Oromo consider themselves <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?id=cfjYAgAAQBAJ&pg=PR4&dq=isbn:+9004265481&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=colonial%20subjects%20&f=false">colonial subjects</a>. They are the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-oromo-protests-mark-a-change-in-ethiopias-political-landscape-63779">largest ethno-national group</a> in Ethiopia and have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-oromo-protests-mark-a-change-in-ethiopias-political-landscape-63779">denied</a> equal access to their country’s political, economic and cultural resources.</p>
<p>For almost 25 years Tigrayan state elites have dominated different structures of the government, including the military. They have also had total control over other institutions such as the media. And they have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAWrm0ecCTM">confiscated fertile land</a> and other <a href="http://www.ayyaantuu.net/the-oromo-movement-the-effects-of-state-terrorism-and-globalization-in-oromia-and-ethiopia/">valuable resources</a> such as gold and other minerals.</p>
<p>Over the last few months, the protests spread across the country. Other ethno-national groups, which also <a href="https://theglobalobservatory.org/2016/09/ethiopia-protests-amhara-oromiya/">feel</a> politically and economically excluded by the Tigrayan-led minority government, have also joined the movement. </p>
<p>The Amhara, the second largest ethno-national group, <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/ethiopias-ethnic-amhara-stage-mass-anti-government-protest-2947164/">started</a> to protest peacefully against the Tigrayan-led minority government in August this year. They <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/who-are-amhara-people-involved-ethiopias-anti-government-protests-1575177">expressed</a> their grievances and support for the Oromo protests in the Amhara regional state. Other ethno-national groups, known as the <a href="http://ecadforum.com/2016/09/14/konso-people-under-attack-by-ethiopian-regime-forces/">Konso</a>, Sidama, and <a href="http://ecadforum.com/2016/10/08/ethiopia-five-people-killed-mosques-attacked-in-dilla/">Gedeo</a> joined more recently. </p>
<p>The protests gained further traction as the state’s reaction became violent. For example, in early October millions of Oromo gathered at Hora Arsadii, south east of Addis Ababa, for “Irreechaa” - the Oromo national holiday of thanksgiving. The Tigrayan-led regime’s army <a href="https://www.opride.com/2016/10/02/irreecha-massacre-several-dozens-feared-dead-bishoftu/">killed</a> more than 700 Oromos and injured hundreds. This was <a href="https://www.opride.com/2016/10/02/irreecha-massacre-several-dozens-feared-dead-bishoftu/">sparked</a> by peaceful, anti-government chants by young Oromos.</p>
<p>After the massacre, Oromo protesters <a href="http://nazret.com/blog/index.php/2016/02/14/ethiopia-oromo-protesters-burned-down">burned</a> property and both locally and internationally owned businesses that had been built on the land seized from the Oromo by Tigrayan state and business elites. </p>
<p>The Ethiopian regime’s response was to <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/ethiopia-declares-state-emergency-protests-161009110506730.html">declare</a> the state of emergency. Set to last six months, its aim is to curb the growing anti-government protest movement.</p>
<p><strong>What impact has this state of emergency had on the various communities in the country?</strong></p>
<p>The current state of emergency is the last attempt by the Tigrayan-led regime to stop the Oromo and Amhara protests and to stay in power. The government is therefore <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/ethiopia-declares-state-emergency-101402875.html">using</a> this situation to gain total control over information, use heavy force and <a href="http://www.ayyaantuu.net/the-genocidal-massacres-of-oromos-at-the-irreechaa-fesival-the-lies-of-the-tigre-led-ethiopian-government/">deny</a> the freedom of organisation and association. </p>
<p>As a result, the regions of Oromia, Amhara, Ogaden, Konso, and Gedeo have become <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/firms-attacked-ethiopia-protests-continue-160902064459286.html">conflict zones</a> with the regime indiscriminately imprisoning, looting and <a href="http://ecadforum.com/2016/10/08/ethiopia-five-people-killed-mosques-attacked-in-dilla/">killing</a> protesters.</p>
<p>According to the state of emergency <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/ethiopia-government-unveils-rules-state-emergency-112046842.html">rules</a>, Oromos, Amharas and Konsos have restricted access to media. They are not allowed to listen to radio stations, such as the Oromo Voice Radio, or to watch media channels, like the Oromia Media Network. Ethiopian soldiers are enforcing these rules and have been seizing or breaking satellite dishes. </p>
<p>The emergency rules also <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/ethiopia-government-unveils-rules-state-emergency-112046842.html">prevent</a> citizens from associating with political organisations that the regime has branded as “terrorist”. One of these is the Oromo Liberation Front which was established in 1973 by Oromo nationalists to promote self-determination. </p>
<p>The situation for the Oromo people is dire. For several months the region has been under a crackdown <a href="http://www.ayyaantuu.net/ethiopia-oromia-regional-state-under-siege/">enforced</a> by special police groups and the army known as “Agazi”. According to <a href="https://www.hrw.org/reports/2005/ethiopia0505/">rights organisations</a>, more than 2 000 Oromos have been killed in eleven months. Several thousand more have been imprisoned, tortured, blinded and raped. </p>
<p>The rule of law no longer seems to apply to the Oromo and their supporters. To <a href="http://ecadforum.com/2016/10/06/internet-blocked-in-ethiopia/">hide</a> its crimes from the international community, the regime has blocked the internet and collected phones from thousands of Oromos.</p>
<p>Until the regime is overthrown they will continue to suffer <a href="http://qz.com/781063/ethiopia-runner-feyisa-lilesas-us-press-conference-highlight-the-oromo-protest-crackdown/">immensely</a>. They are being <a href="http://agensir.it/mondo/2016/10/12/ethiopia-state-of-emergency-the-repression-of-the-oromo-people-in-broad-daylight/">excluded</a> from state support in relation to protection, food, shelter, clothing, medicine and other necessary services. </p>
<p><strong>As a group is the Oromo community concerned about their future?</strong></p>
<p>Because the current regime fears the size of the Oromo population, it <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/afr25/006/2014/en/">tries</a> to minimise their influence through hidden policies and war. The regime has already <a href="https://www.change.org/p/united-nations-human-rights-committee-human-rights-campaign-stop-massacre-of-oromo-people-and-suppression-of-human-rights-in-ethiopia">prevented</a> Oromo representatives from coming into political power through systematic killings, imprisonment or exile. For these reasons, the Oromo are very concerned about their future. </p>
<p>In addition, little looks set to change as a result of external pressure because international powers such as the <a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/us-ethiopia-relationship-strong-but-complicated-/2880154.html">United States</a> as well as organisations such as <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/ethiopia">USAID</a> have a close relationship with the regime. This gives rise to concerns within the Oromo community that their grievances will not be heard and that they will not be given support.</p>
<p>Nevertheless the Oromo people are determined to change their status quo and better their future. That is why they <a href="http://www.voanews.com/a/ethiopia-protests-continue-despite-call-for-calm/3538412.html">continue</a> with their movement, despite massive incidents of death and imprisonment.</p>
<p><strong>What are the prospects for the government and leaders of the protest movement meeting to resolve the political issues between them?</strong></p>
<p>Resolving the conflict requires the implementation of social justice and democracy. But the Ethiopian regime has demonstrated that it will dictate everything to the Oromo people and its leadership through the barrel of the gun. </p>
<p>The Oromo are rejecting this heavy-handed approach. So, in this conflict, there are two options – either the regime must go, and the Oromo be victorious, or the Oromo people must be destroyed to serve the interest of the regime.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Asafa Jalata does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The current state of emergency in Ethiopia is the last attempt by the Tigrayan-led regime to stop the Oromo and Amhara protests and maintain political power.Asafa Jalata, Professor of Sociology and Global and Africana Studies, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/620952016-07-11T03:49:45Z2016-07-11T03:49:45ZIf it needs it, Australia can draw on significant experience of minority government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129947/original/image-20160711-24105-1jh9d6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia is fortunate to have had the recent Labor minority government to draw lessons from.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Though Malcolm Turnbull has <a href="https://theconversation.com/turnbull-celebrates-victory-after-shorten-concedes-defeat-62273">declared victory</a> in the 2016 election race, it <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/">remains unclear</a> whether he will form a majority or minority government.</p>
<p>Australia has a wealth of experience of minority government. While it has only had one national minority government recently, every single state and territory <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/the-fabulous-fiftieth-nsw-parliament-and-other-minority-governments">has had a minority government</a> since 1990. One-third of post-second-world-war state and territory governments were <a href="http://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/minority-government-in-the-australian-states-from-ersatz-majoritarianism-to-minoritarianism(18af6246-46bd-4a49-83d8-c76f8045b573).html">supported in minority</a> – usually by crossbench independents.</p>
<p>We do notice the sensational minority governments when they occur. For example, the Greens in Tasmania <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264978962_Minority_Government_The_Liberal_Green_experience_in_Tasmania">supported a minority government</a> (Labor) for only the second time in the world between 1989 and 1991; they then supported the Liberals between 1996 and 1998; and then Labor again, but with two ministries, between 2010 and 2013.</p>
<p>Most people noticed Nick Greiner’s scandal-plagued and difficult <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/nick-greiners-fate-a-lesson-for-political-reformers-20130701-2p760.html">Coalition minority government</a> in New South Wales in the 1990s, with Tony Windsor among others on the crossbench. And most noticed that South Australian Labor Premier Mike Rann <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/south-australias-cabinet-experiment">included National Party members</a> in his cabinet in the early 2000s.</p>
<p>Despite this wealth of experience, which resulted from the electorate voting for minor parties and “Others” in increasing numbers, the fact that Julia Gillard had to govern in minority federally between 2010 and 2013 was depicted as an absolute national crisis.</p>
<p>Remarkably, despite the destabilising politics levelled at it by the opposition, the Gillard government deftly negotiated and passed legislation <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jun/28/australia-productive-prime-minister">at record levels</a> – unlike the Abbott Coalition majority government <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/is-tony-abbotts-regime-the-worst-federal-government-ever-20150803-giqtnx.html">that succeeded it</a>.</p>
<h2>First steps</h2>
<p>No matter what the end result of the 2016 election, Australia is fortunate to have the recent 2010-13 Labor minority government to draw lessons from. The most significant lesson is that minority governments can successfully prosecute their policy agendas even while being destabilised.</p>
<p>Critical to this is learning the first, most obvious lesson of minority government: to lock in your supporters, most likely with policy concessions, and in return to gain their support on confidence and supply.</p>
<p>A minority government needs to be able to operate. For that it needs its budget, or supply, to be passed without issue. It also needs to be able to survive the inevitable no-confidence motions that will come from the opposition.</p>
<p>Without crossbenchers guaranteeing these two necessities, minority government is in for an uncertain ride. And the governor-general may want proof both are guaranteed.</p>
<p>This proof is typically a written agreement, <a href="http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/383476/parliamentaryagreement.pdf">like the one</a> between the ACT Labor minority government and the Greens. But besides guaranteeing support, an agreement can commit to a joint vision, policies, reform opportunities, resources for crossbenchers, information provision, communication and agreed mechanisms for overcoming disputes.</p>
<p>There are any numbers of agreement styles <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/researchpapers/Documents/minority-governments-in-australia-1989-2009-acco/Minority%20Governments%20Background%20Paper.pdf">to choose from</a>. The Tasmanian Labor minority government of 2010-14 claimed it had no agreement with the Greens; it exchanged fairly explicit letters of arrangement with them instead.</p>
<h2>Keep calm and deploy the right people</h2>
<p>Just as there is no one style of agreement between minority governments and crossbenchers, so is there no one style of crossbencher. Government-crossbencher liaison must therefore be the province of very capable people.</p>
<p>Tasmanian Labor caretaker premier David Bartlett and Gillard separately provided just the right type of creative, pragmatic, calm and confident leadership that was required to pull off minority government, both after elections in 2010.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese, as leader of the house, was the key operative who negotiated legislation through parliament at record rates with the Labor government in minority.</p>
<p>Turnbull <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/03/even-if-turnbull-wins-he-loses-and-even-if-shorten-loses-he-wins">warned before the 2016 election</a> that minority government is an outcome that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… would be a national calamity and something he would never even contemplate.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Labor leader Bill Shorten offered a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-bill-shorten-leaves-door-ajar-for-hung-parliament-deals-with-nongreens-20160624-gpqw5u.html">more measured response</a>, secure in his direct experience of the Gillard minority government.</p>
<p>It takes time, temperament and negotiation to construct minority government. It is hard work, but as it has become normalised at state level, conventions and expectations have accommodated it, and the fear-mongering has subsided.</p>
<h2>Deal with whatever the electorate serves up</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2016-reveals-the-end-of-the-rusted-on-voter-and-the-death-of-the-two-party-system-61373">shift away from the major parties</a> is a trend that is not reversing, however incremental it may seem. It is reshaping Australian politics, including heightening the need for power-sharing governments.</p>
<p>Where the electorate feels line ball about the major parties, it will turn in increasing numbers to minor parties and “Others”. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/">Witness the flight</a> of South Australian voters to the Nick Xenophon Team and Queenslanders to One Nation.</p>
<p>Probably one of the most difficult lessons of minority government that then-opposition leader Tony Abbott could not abide in 2010 was to accept the parliament that the people had delivered and learn to deal with it. His constant derision and undermining of the Gillard minority government <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-08-22/labor-lacks-legitimacy-unfit-to-govern-abbott/954056">as less-than-legitimate</a> was an insult to voters’ choices.</p>
<p>In the days following an election, if a minority government is a possibility, the right tone to adopt by political leaders is one of respect for both the voters’ choices and for the MPs who may prove to be pivotal crossbenchers.</p>
<p>This is a time for calm reflection, transparent reassurances and deft strategising, as we learnt in the 17 days it took in 2010 before Gillard emerged with a deal to secure minority government with independent and the Green support.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62095/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Crowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Minority governments can successfully prosecute their policy agendas even while being destabilised.Kate Crowley, Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/622192016-07-08T01:46:56Z2016-07-08T01:46:56ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the uncertain election outcome<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OpBgAEq-bDg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>After an election in which voters snubbed both major parties, the campaign postmortems have been coming thick and fast. Michelle Grattan tells University of Canberra acting vice-chancellor Frances Shannon that in the longer run it’s going to be extremely difficult for Malcolm Turnbull to regroup. </p>
<p>“He’s got a divided party. He’s got conservatives within his party who are going to be much more assertive than they’ve been able to be so far during his brief prime ministership. He’s got a diabolical position in the Senate where he’ll be fighting to get controversial pieces of legislation through,” Grattan says.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62219/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After an election in which voters snubbed both major parties, the campaign postmortems have been coming thick and fast.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/619632016-07-03T03:40:00Z2016-07-03T03:40:00ZExplainer: what is a ‘hung parliament’, and how will a government be formed?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129084/original/image-20160703-18334-1qi9aq1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Talk has now turned to whether Australia will again have a minority government and a 'hung parliament'.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Neither Malcolm Turnbull nor Bill Shorten was able to claim victory on election night. With <a href="https://theconversation.com/major-rebuff-to-malcolm-turnbull-as-poll-result-hovers-on-knife-edge-61960">uncertainty</a> surrounding whether either party will be able to secure a majority of lower house seats, talk has now turned to whether Australia will again have a minority government and a “hung parliament”.</p>
<p>So, what is a hung parliament? And what is the procedure for determining who will form the next government?</p>
<h2>What is a hung parliament?</h2>
<p>The party (or coalition of parties) that has a majority in the House of Representatives forms the government. </p>
<p>There are 150 seats in the House of Representatives. To form government in their own right, the Liberal/National Coalition or Labor requires 76 seats. If neither can form government in their own right, we have a “hung parliament”.</p>
<p>There is nothing in the Constitution to deal with the situation in which neither side can form a majority government. Instead, these matters are resolved by “conventions”. These conventions are the unwritten rules, practices and procedures that Australia inherited from the United Kingdom, upon which our system of government <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/democracy/key-terms/westminster-system">is based</a>.</p>
<h2>Forming a minority government</h2>
<p>If neither side has a clear majority, a minority government might be able to be formed with the support of minor party and independent MPs. </p>
<p>For this to occur, one side would need enough minor party and independent MPs to agree to vote with it to ensure the <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2016/April/SupplyBills">budget supply bills</a> can be passed, and to support the minority government in a vote of no-confidence. This was what happened after the 2010 election, when the Gillard government received the support of Greens MP Adam Bandt and three independents to form a minority government. </p>
<p>While a hung parliament might seem like a relatively common phenomenon in recent times, historically they are more unusual. The 2010 election result was the <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook43p/hungparliament">first hung parliament</a> since 1940.</p>
<p>If Turnbull ends up falling short of a majority but receives the support of enough minor party and independent MPs to form a minority government, he would inform the governor-general that he believes he has the confidence of a majority of the house and would seek to remain prime minister. </p>
<p>If Shorten were able to gather the support of the minor party and independent MPs, then Turnbull would need to resign and advise the governor-general to swear in Shorten as prime minister.</p>
<p>If it’s unclear which side has the support of the majority of the House of Representatives, the governor-general would in all likelihood allow the incumbent prime minister – in this case Turnbull – to remain in the position and to test whether he has the confidence of the house, on the floor of the parliament. </p>
<p>If there was a successful vote of no-confidence against Turnbull, he would then need to resign, and the governor-general might then swear in Shorten as prime minister.</p>
<h2>Does a minority government mean parliament will grind to a halt?</h2>
<p>While a hung parliament does mean a minority government will need to negotiate with independents or minor parties to pass its legislation though the House of Representatives, it does not necessarily mean it will be prevented from governing. </p>
<p>The Gillard minority government, for example, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jun/28/australia-productive-prime-minister">passed more legislation</a> in its first 700 days than the Abbott government did in the same period.</p>
<p>Perhaps this reminds us that the challenge for any government – whether it holds a majority in the House or Representatives or not – is still going to be getting legislation through the Senate.</p>
<h2>What effect will this have on a joint sitting?</h2>
<p>After a double-dissolution election, if the Senate again rejects the bills that were <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-explainer-what-does-it-mean-that-were-having-a-double-dissolution-election-56671">used as a “trigger”</a> for the election, the government can ask the governor-general to <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/%7E/link.aspx?_id=AFF6CA564BC3465AA325E73053DED4AA&_z=z#chapter-01_part-05_57">convene a joint sitting</a> of the House of Representatives and the Senate to consider that legislation.</p>
<p>With the election result being so close, the chances of a joint sitting now seem less likely. </p>
<p>Even if the Turnbull government is returned with a slim majority in the House of Representatives, it may not be enough to give it a majority in a joint sitting of both houses if there are a large number of crossbench senators, <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-messy-night-coalition-more-likely-to-form-government-but-pauline-hanson-is-in-the-senate-61207">as appears likely</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/61963/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Webster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is nothing in the Constitution to deal with the situation in which neither side can form a majority government.Adam Webster, Lecturer, Adelaide Law School, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.