tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/nelson-mandela-day-29307/articlesNelson Mandela Day – The Conversation2023-04-24T15:40:59Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2041412023-04-24T15:40:59Z2023-04-24T15:40:59ZSouth Africa votes in 2024: could a coalition between major parties ANC and EFF run the country?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522956/original/file-20230426-681-u13v67.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of the opposition EFF carry a mock coffin bearing the face of the President Cyril Ramaphosa, leader of the ruling ANC. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phill Magakoe / AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s 2024 national and provincial <a href="https://www.eisa.org/calendar2024.php">elections</a> are regarded as a realistic opportunity for coalition governments to be formed in some provinces and also at the national level. This would mark a dramatic change from the current situation in which coalition governments have only been formed at local level.</p>
<p>Electoral trends since 2016 underscore these expectations. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-have-made-their-voices-heard-now-what-for-local-councils-63854">ANC lost its majorities</a> in metropolitan councils in Gauteng and Nelson Mandela Bay. Its majorities in the national and provincial legislatures also declined. But support for opposition parties did not escalate at the same time. Voter turnout continued its <a href="https://www.gcro.ac.za/outputs/map-of-the-month/detail/voting-patterns-in-the-2016-local-government-elections/">declining trend</a>. </p>
<p>In the coalition debate an important permutation is about who would constitute the coalitions.</p>
<p>One option that’s been talked about with increasing intensity is <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/politics/2023-04-09-lesufi-admits-anc-could-plunge-to-40-in-gauteng/">a coalition </a> between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). </p>
<p>In terms of experience, the ANC has run the national government since 1994. It also governs eight of South Africa’s nine provinces and most of the 257 metropolitan, district and local municipalities. (In the past, the ANC was also involved in provincial coalitions in <a href="https://theconversation.com/post-election-pact-failure-echoes-of-fraught-history-between-south-africas-anc-and-inkatha-172696">KwaZulu-Natal</a> and the <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/anc-forms-coalition-governments-in-three-hung-municipalities-in-western-cape-1fecbfb0-f630-4495-9244-c17b64c494e1">Western Cape </a>. For it’s part the EFF lacks experience in any form of government. </p>
<p>The possibility of an ANC-EFF coalition has generated a great deal of debate. But such an alliance would prove difficult to put together, and made to work. That’s for two reasons: ideology and policy. These two have proved key determinants of successful coalitions elsewhere in the world.</p>
<h2>The EFF</h2>
<p>Most of the EFF’s leaders are former ANC Youth League figures who were expelled <a href="https://www.news24.com/citypress/news/thurs-10am-a-decade-of-the-eff-how-an-expulsion-changed-the-politics-of-sa-20191226">in 2013</a>. They differed on ideological grounds from the ANC senior leadership about expropriation and nationalisation of land, mines and banks. The EFF describes itself as a Marxist-Leninist party <a href="https://effonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FINAL-EFF-CONSTITUTION-02.03.2020.pdf#page=8">influenced by the thoughts of Frantz Fanon</a>. The ANC, on the other hand, still regards itself as a liberation movement in a <a href="https://www.southafricanlabourbulletin.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/16.-Social-democracy-and-the-ANC.pdf">social democratic tradition</a>. </p>
<p>In the 2016 local government election the ANC lost its absolute majority in the key Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay metropolitan councils. A coalition government was the only option for them. In Ekurhuleni, the ANC formed a coalition <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/aic-agrees-on-coalition-with-anc-in-ekurhuleni-2058557">with the African Independent Congress</a> but in the other three councils a more expanded coalition was required.</p>
<p>In the three instances, an ANC-EFF coalition was a definite possibility. But the latter preferred an informal cooperation understanding with the Democratic Alliance (DA), the country’s main opposition party, and its formal coalition partners. The EFF’s cooperation was essential for the DA grouping because on their own they would be <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2019-04-26-00-the-tables-could-turn-on-kingmaker-eff/">a minority government</a>. Towards the end of the term close to 2021, the EFF withdrew its cooperation from the DA coalition. This resulted in regime changes after successful motions of no confidence by the ANC alliance. This demonstrated the EFF’s “kingmaker” qualities and political pragmatism. But, it harmed the public’s faith in coalitions.</p>
<p>A similar tendency has recently emerged in KwaZulu-Natal province where the EFF and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) shared power in about 25 local governments, in some instances already since the 2016 elections. Recently the EFF announced that they will withdraw from these coalition governments, and pair with the ANC to form new governments. Their earlier cooperation with the IFP was directly <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/opinion/the-eff-ultimatum-and-the-mayhem-of-coalition-governments-86619630-4486-463d-be69-e59b0106ffeb">aimed against the ANC</a>.</p>
<h2>The EFF’s coalition strategy</h2>
<p>The EFF’s strategy has been unpredictable most of the time. At the time of the 2021 local government elections, the party’s main negotiator, Floyd Shivambu, articulated the following strategy: the EFF did <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/eff-lays-down-conditions-for-any-coalitions-with-other-parties-20211106">not want to share power in a local government</a>, but rather wanted to reach a package agreement that it control all the executive positions in Ekurhuleni. The ANC would do the same in Johannesburg, and the DA control all the positions in Tshwane.</p>
<p>Shivambu failed to convince the other parties. The final outcome was conventional, power-sharing coalitions with the DA at the core, excluding the ANC and EFF. Both parties, however, managed to entice smaller parties in the DA grouping to break ranks and removed the DA-led governments in no confidence motions. New speakers and mayors in the Gauteng metropolitan councils were elected from minute parties like the <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/09/28/cope-s-colleen-makhubele-elected-as-joburg-council-speaker">Congress of the People</a>, <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2023/01/27/al-jama-ah-s-thapelo-amad-is-johannesburg-s-new-mayor">al Jama-ah</a> and the <a href="https://www.tshwane.gov.za/?p=51991">African Transformation Movement </a>, and not from the ANC or the EFF.</p>
<h2>The latest ANC-EFF approach</h2>
<p>In the centre of municipal power – the mayoral committee – real power sharing between the ANC and EFF is being implemented mainly in Ekurhuleni and to a lesser degree in Johannesburg.</p>
<p>What does the latest ANC-EFF approach tell us? It is widely speculated that it is primarily confined to Gauteng, the country’s economic hub, and that the ANC’s provincial leaders, including <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/news/politics/2023-04-09-lesufi-admits-anc-could-plunge-to-40-in-gauteng/">Premier Panyaza Lesufi</a> favour such an approach. But, most of the party’s national leaders do not show the same appetite for it. Recently, for example, the ANC Veterans’ League and its leader, Snuki Zikalala, expressed a preference for the DA over the EFF as <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-04-16-grand-coalition-2024-veterans-leagues-snuki-zikalala-suggests-da-is-better-partner-for-anc/">a possible coalition partner</a>.</p>
<p>In the Gauteng provincial election in 2019, the ANC received a slim majority of <a href="https://www.gcro.ac.za/outputs/map-of-the-month/detail/2019-gauteng-provincial-election-results/">only 50.12%</a>. Therefore, an ANC-EFF provincial coalition in 2024 is not inconceivable. A similar national coalition, however, would be a different kettle of fish.</p>
<h2>A national coalition government</h2>
<p>National government is primarily responsible for national policies. The question is whether the ANC and EFF will be able to find each other in policy terms. Take for example land ownership which is a policy priority for the EFF. They favour expropriation of white-owned land for redistribution to the mainly landless black majority, without compensation and that all land acquired through land reform <a href="https://www.news24.com/citypress/politics/eff-blames-anc-for-failure-to-pass-expropriation-without-compensation-bill-20211207">must be state-owned</a>. On the other hand, the ANC’s expropriation policy ranges from zero to extensive compensation for specific property features, and ownership is not limited to the state.</p>
<p>For more than two years, a parliamentary committee considered different proposals for amending section 25 of constitutional property rights. The fact that the ANC and EFF could not find each other on such an amendment <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2021-12-08-heres-why-the-eff-rejected-the-land-expropriation-without-compensation-bill/">collapsed the process</a>. If the two parties cannot find each other on such an important and symbolic policy matter, how can they agree on other policy matters?</p>
<h2>The challenge of power-sharing</h2>
<p>The final test of any coalition is: can parties agree on how to share power? So far, the EFF and ANC have avoided it in the case of top positions. In Johannesburg and Tshwane, more recently, they have not nominated their own members for the positions of mayor and speaker but gave them to very small parties. </p>
<p>In November 2022, the EFF tried to nominate its candidate as Ekurhuleni mayor but failed. The <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-11-08-how-the-anc-eff-partnership-failed-in-ekurhuleni-and-led-to-the-re-election-of-mayor-tania-campbell/">DA’s candidate was re-elected</a>. It means that the ANC and EFF are not yet able to decide how to share these positions. </p>
<p>In a national government, the stakes for all the parties will be even higher. A minister’s position includes many personal gains, a high status and the power to reward patronage networks. It complicates power sharing as a strategic mechanism to cultivate cross-cutting loyalties which should stabilise the mosaic of interests in a coalition. This is the outstanding test for the ANC and EFF. They have not yet been in a situation of sharing power to the satisfaction of both sides.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204141/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dirk Kotze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>ANC and EFF differ on ideology and policy – an alliance between them would prove difficult to put together and made to work.Dirk Kotze, Professor in Political Science, University of South AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1428262020-07-17T07:07:36Z2020-07-17T07:07:36ZMandela was a flawed icon. But without him South Africa would be a sadder place<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347935/original/file-20200716-21-pen2n5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nelson Mandela, South Africa's freedom struggle icon and first black president, continues to be revered around the world. </span> </figcaption></figure><p>I was one of the thousands who watched <a href="https://www.nelsonmandela.org/content/page/biography">Nelson Mandela</a>, the South African liberation struggle hero, leave prison on 11 February 1990, and then mount the podium in front of Cape Town’s City Hall, expressing the hope that the apartheid government would agree to negotiations so that there might no longer be the need for armed struggle against apartheid to continue. He <a href="https://apnews.com/7aa2aa4c5132da1676087cb6be48c9d0">said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Today, the majority of South Africans, black and white, recognise that apartheid has no future. It has to be ended by our decisive mass action … We have waited too long for our freedom.</p>
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<p>He appealed to white South Africans to </p>
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<p><a href="https://apnews.com/7aa2aa4c5132da1676087cb6be48c9d0">join us in the safety of a new South Africa. The freedom movement is a political home for you, too</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I was thrilled but also, underneath that, felt concern about the forces against him. I worried about the violence the apartheid military and its proxies would unleash.</p>
<p>I fretted about what I’d seen during my decade of membership of the African National Congress (ANC), the leading liberation movement for which he was jailed: the seeping corruption, elbowing for position, the exile old guard’s insistence on primacy. And, as he left prison hand in hand with his wife, Winnie, I feared the influence of a woman who’d already been convicted of kidnapping, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/books-paint-contrasting-pictures-of-winnie-madikizela-mandela-109893">accused of so much more</a>.</p>
<p>As I will show, these concerns were borne out. But, three decades on since his release, it still feels that without Mandela South Africa would be a sadder place. </p>
<p>The “Great Man” take on the past so often misses the undercurrents that keep greatness afloat, and yet there are few moments in recent world history where one person made quite such a difference.</p>
<p>Mandela’s extraordinary gifts – his integrity and self-discipline, intelligence and intellectual curiosity, depth of perception, strategic vision and tactical nous, and his steely resolve – set him apart. Towards the end of his <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-23618727">27 years in prison</a>, that meant leading in a direction that felt uncomfortable to some, through conducting <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/nelson-mandela-and-the-general-graphic-novel-apartheid-secret-negotiations-bloodshed-south-africa-a8633096.html">secret talks </a> with the government.</p>
<h2>Compromise and bargain</h2>
<p>Throughout this period he kept <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-anc-is-celebrating-the-year-of-or-tambo-who-was-he-85838">Oliver Tambo’s</a> exile leadership of the ANC informed. But there were misgivings about his role. Mandela later went out of his way to allay these fears.</p>
<p>The example I recall most vividly (because I had to rush around closing secret offices and bank accounts) came six months after his release when the leadership of <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/members-anc-and-sacp-are-detained-due-operation-vula">“Operation Vula”</a> (the ANC and South African Communist Party’s underground network) were rounded up.</p>
<p>FW De Klerk, the last apartheid president, used the arrests to demand that the Communist Party leader Joe Slovo be dropped from the ANC’s negotiating team. But Mandela, who’d once been a party member, dug in. De Klerk backed down, and <a href="https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/omalley/cis/omalley/OMalleyWeb/03lv03445/04lv03996/05lv04005.htm">eventually indemnified the group</a>.</p>
<p>The four years of negotiations saw more people killed in political violence – mostly from the state and its proxies, with <a href="https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/omalley/index.php/site/q/03lv02167/04lv02264/05lv02335/06lv02357/07lv02372/08lv02379.htm">an estimated 14,000 people dying</a>. Mandela could not prevent this mayhem, but his authority and gravitas kept the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/convention-democratic-south-africa-codesa">negotiations to end apartheid </a> afloat. Authority and momentum seeped from De Klerk into Mandela.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-mandela-stayed-fit-from-his-matchbox-soweto-home-to-a-prison-cell-135690">How Mandela stayed fit: from his 'matchbox' Soweto home to a prison cell</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Still, he and his team had to make compromises. One was that the apartheid military were mollycoddled because of the danger they presented. Another was that the ANC had to allow <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/inkatha-freedom-party-ifp">Inkatha</a>, the Zulu-nationalist party led by Mangosuthu Buthelezi, control of KwaZulu-Natal.</p>
<p>In the end, Mandela’s team got more than many expected – a one-person, one-vote election and a <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/constitution/constitution-republic-south-africa-1996-1#:%7E:text=The%20Constitution%20of%20the%20Republic%20of%20South%20Africa%2C%201996%2C%20was,supreme%20law%20of%20the%20land.&text=South%20Africa's%20Constitution%20is%20one,and%20enjoys%20high%20acclaim%20internationally">progressive constitution</a> with no entrenched rights for racial minorities. Without Mandela none of this would have been certain, or even likely.</p>
<h2>Mandela’s presidency</h2>
<p>Mandela’s five years as president were more ambiguous. He helped keep the peace through gestures like appointing De Klerk and Buthelezi to his cabinet, wearing Springbok colours in presenting the rugby World Cup trophy to the victorious South African side <a href="https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/news/103756">in 1995</a> and securing the formation of the <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/trc/">Truth and Reconciliation Commission</a>.</p>
<p>There were real changes, including houses for the poor and water supplies for three million, with two million <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/mandela-a-biography/oclc/437299443">connected to the electricity grid</a>. But job-creation programmes were abandoned and the <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books/about/Mandela.html?id=eZsMAQAAMAAJ&redir_esc=y">gap between rich and poor remained </a> even if the ranks of the rich became more racially mixed – and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27522260?seq=1">crime rates remained disturbingly high</a>. </p>
<p>It is sometimes said that the <a href="https://sastatecapture.org.za/">corruption that engulfed the country</a> started during <a href="http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/profiles/former-president-thabo-mvuyelwa-mbeki">Thabo Mbeki’s presidency</a> (June 1999 to September 2008) and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e0991464-ee79-11e9-bfa4-b25f11f42901">became endemic under Jacob Zuma</a> (May 2009 to February 2018). But <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-corruption-in-south-africa-isnt-simply-about-zuma-and-the-guptas-113056">the seeds were sown earlier</a>, and Mandela did little to curb its growth within the ANC while leader.</p>
<p>He also neglected the HIV/AIDS pandemic while president. When I discussed this with Edwin Cameron, the Constitutional Court judge and HIV/AIDS activist, in an interview published in South Africa’s <em>Sunday Independent</em> in 2001, he shook his head sadly. </p>
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<p>Of all the leaders of the 20th century who might have had an impact, Mandela was the one who could have done the most – without doubt this was one of the grievous omissions of his presidency…
He did 199 things that contributed to our nation’s salvation but the one thing he didn’t do as president was take a lead on AIDS – and it’s not because he wasn’t begged to. We tried in every single way, but he didn’t take it up and it was a tragedy.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Mandela’s talent for reading the political runes was not always matched by his ability to read people. Internal political leaders who’d publicly criticised Winnie were sidelined but his patrician’s hope that he could have a benign influence on her evaporated. They separated in 1992 and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/02/winnie-madikizela-mandela-obituary">divorced in 1995</a>.</p>
<h2>Secure legacy</h2>
<p>Mandela’s tendency to defer to the exile leadership came at a cost. He appointed several dud former exiles to his cabinet, including the <a href="https://www.biznews.com/interviews/2016/06/01/how-world-sees-sa-watch-zuma-imbongi-nkoana-mashabane-bombs-on-aljazeera">dozy Alfred Nzo</a> as foreign affairs minister and the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2014-09-02-joe-modise-benefited-from-arms-deal-former-scopa-chair/">corrupt Joe Modise</a> as defence minister.</p>
<p>He also conceded to pressure from exile leaders to appoint Mbeki rather than Cyril Ramaphosa as deputy president, despite having earlier swapped them as negotiations head, regarding Mbeki as thin-skinned and inflexible, according to his official biographer, Anthony Sampson. Yet Mandela increasingly delegated power to his dauphin, who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/24/opinion/24sat1.html">displayed the paranoia and obduracy he’d feared</a>.</p>
<p>Mandela left at the right time in 1999, when the country still seemed in a healthy state, after which he consolidated his international reputation, while throwing himself into the HIV/AIDS campaign on learning that his son, Makgatho, was HIV-positive. He described it as a war that had <a href="https://theconversation.com/mandelas-stance-on-hiv-set-him-apart-from-his-anc-successors-21264">killed more than “all previous wars”</a>.</p>
<p>This 18th of July marks what would have been his 102nd birthday. His legacy is secure, the rough edges smoothed – a figure of reconciliation more than a guerrilla leader, a statesman, not a former communist, an icon solidified in sculptor’s stone rather than a magnificent, flawed and complex human being.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142826/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gavin Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mandela left at the right time in 1999, when the country still seemed in a healthy state, after which he consolidated his international reputation.Gavin Evans, Lecturer, Culture and Media department, Birkbeck, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1207792019-07-23T11:20:35Z2019-07-23T11:20:35ZZuma shows, once again, that he’s adroit at playing to the gallery<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285299/original/file-20190723-110191-19ors8i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Jacob Zuma is fighting a batttle for political capital.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook/Pool</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If there’s one thing South Africans can agree on, it’s that former President Jacob Zuma has always been adept at putting on a show. This has historically served him well – even since he was <a href="https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/jacob-zuma-resigns-as-president-of-south-africa-20180214">ousted in 2018</a>. But lately his performance repertoire (and powerful stage) have both been significantly diminished. </p>
<p>It comes as no surprise therefore that he’s resorted to long-standing strategies in his appearance at the <a href="https://www.sastatecapture.org.za/">Zondo Commission</a> of inquiry into corruption. </p>
<p>These days, Zuma is fighting a battle for political capital. To maintain popular support he needs media coverage: he needs to stay visible to stay relevant. It’s a canny calculation: Zuma knows he won’t change his critic’s minds, but he does stand to lose his supporter’s fervour if he is invisible for too long. </p>
<p>To that end, he has deployed a wider strategy. To date, this has mostly taken the form of his infamous December 2018 “Twitter comeback” – taking control of the online narrative through his <a href="https://twitter.com/presjgzuma?lang=en">own social media account</a>. </p>
<p>Starting with a <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1073474576334635008">curious video post</a> in which he slowly and repeatedly declared himself to be “the real Jacob Zuma,” he announced that he had</p>
<blockquote>
<p>decided to move with the times, to join this important area of conversation because I hear many people are talking about me.</p>
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<p>Since then, his account has rapidly grown in popularity, swiftly amassing a sizeable 318k followers to the Presidency’s 1.1 million (on Twitter, of course, controversy pays off: Helen Zille has 1.3 million). </p>
<h2>Twitter strategy</h2>
<p>Zuma has used his account seemingly tamely, rarely giving any overt political commentary on charges, accusations or machinations of state. Rather, he uses the platform to release video “statements” wishing his followers well over <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1077432929649901573">holidays</a> or telling lengthy, often rambling, personal anecdotes. </p>
<p>Typically, these video messages are low-tech and filmed from a living room. This serves up both a veneer of authenticity – a lack of high tech production value intimates we are getting the “real” Zuma – and a faux intimacy. While these messages may seem random and clumsily executed, they strategically portray Zuma as an elder but not elderly: here’s Zuma <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1122864484752732161">mock sparring</a> with his son, and here he posts a <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1129091438283808770">clip</a> of his daughter’s graduation. </p>
<p>Playing the benign “<em>Baba</em>” (father in isiZulu) serves him well –- an elder statesman and grandfather demands respect, is accorded a certain allowance. Certainly, to critics – often termed “enemies” –- he becomes the butt of a joke. Yet to supporters, he offers an insider look – quite literally, in some videos, a place at his own table. </p>
<p>Some of his most popular <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1085511230041870338">Twitter posts</a> include <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1093477277038530560">“throwback” photos</a> of his struggle years and current affairs are often used to pointedly recall past exploits. A <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1143217537762676738">post</a> on June 24 says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>That Mabana video reminded me of the time we were detained at Hercules Police Station.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It’s accompanied by an armchair anecdote of how the police used racial racial slurs against him. The story itself ends on a cliffhanger: “I will have to finish this story soon” – eliciting storms of follower requests to “Please do, Baba”.</p>
<p>By tying himself to a narrative of past struggle hero and recalling apartheid-era espionage, Zuma doubles down on painting himself as a survivor of a hostile system, a servant of the struggle. </p>
<p>This tactic was on full display during the Zondo testimony at the Zondo commission. His memory was impeccable when it came to regaling the commission with asides about his role in the struggle and history of coup <a href="https://city-press.news24.com/News/zuma-suicide-bombers-were-brought-into-the-country-to-assassinate-me-20190715">plots against him </a>, but remarkably vague with <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2019-07-17-jacob-zumas-amnesia-has-social-media-up-in-arms/">recollection</a> of any activity relating to corruption. </p>
<p>Such selective memory proffers a winking nod to his supporters, while avoiding being pinned down by all others: a verbal form of his sparring video clips. </p>
<p>This interest in presenting a deep history of alternate Zumas – Jacob the struggle hero, or the trade unionist – is a play that’s being picked up by his Foundation. Currently, they’re <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1134341542917881856">requesting essay submissions</a> from ordinary South Africans on the “impact and influence of the former President.” </p>
<p>One can only imagine the potential contributions, which is perhaps why they stipulate that submissions must include a one-paragraph resume.</p>
<h2>Stricken hero</h2>
<p>In line with the frequent references, both on social media and during the Zondo testimony, to his <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1085511230041870338">struggle hero credentials</a> and various plots he has survived, Zuma has also been at pains to frame himself as a poor man – his wealth reduced and sucked dry by his service to the cause. Who, after all, is not feeling the pinch in these trying times? The fact that the times are almost uniformly attributable to Zuma himself is a wrinkle conveniently left unironed. </p>
<p>Despite this newfound humble presentation, spectacle is never far from Zuma’s core repertoire. At Zondo, this was outsourced to full effect to a vocal supporter gallery, including the deployment of a <a href="https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/state-capture/2154719/zuma-gets-standing-ovation-as-he-arrives-at-zondo-commission/">chillingly effective slow clap and chant</a>. The facts against Zuma may well stubbornly remain, but the performance must go on.</p>
<p>Much more effective than mere “yes men”, the militant public show of loyalty is what carries Zuma’s public relations momentum from his curated Twitter feed. As he is well aware, the Zondo Commission will be reduced to headlines, grab quotes and iconic images of many South Africans. For most, it will simply be represented by viral clips and memes. Nothing translates as well as a catchy entrance and, once again, Zuma got his takeaway moment. </p>
<h2>Laugh or cry</h2>
<p>This brings us to Zuma’s second performance strategy: above all else, keep them laughing. </p>
<p>Zuma is infamous for deploying a chuckle: the hollow sound of his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvHVkFvecT4">parliamentary laughter</a> still haunts much of the South African consciousness. His ability to laugh off even the most gruesome accusations has continued in his social media performance. Referencing The Sunday Times accusation of him having a secret property in Dubai, he <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1115524279821635584">tweeted</a> no April 9th:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Sigh! …I owe millions in legal fees… I’ve asked you to assist with that one title deed in order for me to sell the house.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Before commencing his Zondo testimony (during which his Twitter account has strategically fallen silent) he <a href="https://twitter.com/PresJGZuma/status/1150364378941837312">posted a video </a> captioned, simply:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I thought I should brighten up your day.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In it, we see a jovial Zuma outside a door, pantomiming the protest slogan “Zuma must fall” in time to a short, improvised dance. Immediately, the tweet went viral (over 590 000 views to date), aided by media personalities such as “The Kiffness”, a social-savvy comedian, who remixed it into a <a href="https://twitter.com/TheKiffness/status/1150674369187913728">catchy music video.</a> </p>
<p>Zuma’s surefire knowledge of providing the base for viral content ensures his continued relevancy in public discourse. In this, he’s aided and abetted by SA media, <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2019/07/16/cartoon-jz-s-many-cards">cartoonists</a> and comedians, who can’t resist the chance to make him the butt of their own jokes. </p>
<p>By positioning himself as a loveable granddad “Baba” to supporters and the punchline of a joke to his opposition, Zuma adroitly defangs the very serious charges against him. </p>
<p>After all, the joker can say anything, so long as he keeps you laughing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carla Lever does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By positioning himself as a loveable granddad to supporters and the punchline of a joke to his opposition, Zuma adroitly defangs the very serious charges against him.Carla Lever, Research Fellow at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/966692018-06-10T08:54:26Z2018-06-10T08:54:26ZMandela centenary: South Africans must not let trifles undermine his legacy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221789/original/file-20180605-119888-6yrt84.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nelson Mandela embodied South Africa's long, arduous journey to freedom and equality.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year marks a century since liberation struggle hero and global statesman Nelson Mandela was born. Throughout 2018, celebrations and events are being <a href="https://www.nelsonmandela.org/nelson-mandela-100">held in his honour</a>.</p>
<p>The centenary is a good chance for South Africans to reflect on Mandela’s selfless leadership, which embodies the country’s odyssey towards a better society. He is one of those, to paraphrase the Tanzanian author Issa Shivji, whom history continues to remember because his “ideals and actions remained <a href="https://africasacountry.com/2018/05/revolutionary-intellectuals">aligned with the people”</a>.</p>
<p>A better society is about harmonious coexistence, where equality is the organising principle; and all have a fair chance at opportunities to enhance their well-being. Mandela knew that this doesn’t occur by chance, but through a historical process that’s in <a href="https://www.eskimo.com/%7Emsharlow/politics/documents/manifesto.pdf">“perpetual evolution”</a>. His leadership laid a foundation for a better society. </p>
<p>But, over two decades later, <a href="http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/Report-03-10-06/Report-03-10-062015.pdf">poverty and inequality</a> continue to stratify South Africa along racial lines. The country still has a long way go in achieving the ideals he stood for, as enshrined in the <a href="http://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/SAConstitution-web-eng.pdf">Constitution</a>. </p>
<p>Mandela’s imaginative foresight in leading the country to democracy is distinctly indelible in history. That’s why it’s worth repeating as part of the centennial celebrations of his life and legacy, lest trifles trump history and spawn national amnesia.</p>
<h2>The meaning of Mandela</h2>
<p>Mandela’s essence lay in service to humanity. In the parlance of the theory of the state, he represented the “whole”, <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books/about/The_Making_of_the_Modern_State.html?id=uT3IAAAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y">“not (his) own personal will”</a>. This was an exception to many post-colonial African leaders’ rule. His struggle for justice was always altruistic, pursued for the good of humanity.</p>
<p>After many years of colonialism and apartheid, democracy finally became the principle of organising South African society in 1994. Mandela’s incarceration for 27 years after being convicted of terrorism was not in vain. History has vindicated him: the United Nations later declared <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/article/history-apartheid-south-africa">apartheid</a> a <a href="http://legal.un.org/avl/ha/cspca/cspca.html">crime against humanity</a>. The policy of racial segregation and oppression could not be sustained, and was dismantled to give way to <a href="http://overcomingapartheid.msu.edu/unit.php?id=65-24E-6">inclusive democracy</a>.</p>
<p>The hallmark of this was his inauguration as the first black democratically elected president of South Africa. This earth shattering moment marked the intersection of fate with choice, where – in the words of the former prime minister of India Jawaharlal Nehru –</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finally <a href="https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/jawaharlalnehrutrystwithdestiny.htm">found utterance</a>. It enhanced the profundity of a nation’s history, following its tryst with destiny.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Tale of two speeches</h2>
<p>Mandela’s <a href="http://www.anc.org.za/content/statement-nelson-mandela-his-inauguration-president">inaugural speech</a> powerfully instilled in the new South African nation optimism about its future. Its major thread was reconciliation and unity. </p>
<p>The speech secured the commitment to cross the Rubicon to democracy. It was a corollary of one he made in 1964, which galvanised national consciousness about the insidiousness of the apartheid system and the significance of the struggle for a democratic society. </p>
<p>The two speeches were made in different historical epochs in the fight against racial oppression. Both show the same imagination of humanity’s future, where social equity as a function of equality is the organising principle for common existence.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221772/original/file-20180605-119875-1qug6mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221772/original/file-20180605-119875-1qug6mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221772/original/file-20180605-119875-1qug6mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221772/original/file-20180605-119875-1qug6mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221772/original/file-20180605-119875-1qug6mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221772/original/file-20180605-119875-1qug6mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/221772/original/file-20180605-119875-1qug6mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nelson Mandela, South Africa’s first black president.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">/Flickr/PresidenciaRD</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mandela’s approach in shepherding a fledgling democracy was that – for it to take root – the highest office in the land should represent, <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2016/11/14/nov-14-readers-letters-h-l-menckens-words-sum-up-2016-election/">more and more closely, the inner soul of the people</a>. He brought to the office of the president the ideals that shaped his political beliefs. He did not exact retribution against those who had jailed him. Instead, he invited them to work with him in building a non-racial, prosperous society.</p>
<p>This showed the magnanimity of his personality as a leader. He led the task of reconciling South Africans, and allayed the fears of many, especially of the white populace. He created the opportunity for the post-apartheid state to evolve. </p>
<h2>Amnesia and distortions</h2>
<p>But, are the <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/pretoria-news/news/lets-use-mandelas-centenary-to-find-the-madiba-in-each-of-us-13491593">centennial celebrations</a> of Mandela’s legacy being used as the opportunity to adequately tell South Africa’s history – especially for younger generations to understand the painful path traversed by the progenitors of the liberation struggle?</p>
<p>I would argue not, since the falsehood that Mandela <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2013-12-09/was-mandela-right-to-sell-out-black-south-africans-">“sold out”</a> persists. </p>
<p>The extreme view among mainly young South Africans, inspired by the radicalism of demagoguery, is that Mandela went beyond reaching out to whites during the multiparty negotiations that ended apartheid. This view suggests the concessions he and the ANC achieved amounted to political freedom <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africa-should-undo-mandelas-economic-deals-52767">without economic power</a> – “selling out”. </p>
<p>But this argument is simply wrong. It ignores the context of that time, and is also oblivious of the complexities of what it takes to build a united nation out of a pariah state. The very delicate transition required ingenuity – not populism – to avert the possibility of plunging the country into war. </p>
<p>The concessions made were necessary to secure political stability. The military solution that Mandela’s detractors would have preferred wouldn’t have been an option. Besides the lethal implications of war, the country’s liberation armies wouldn’t have stood up to the apartheid state’s military. </p>
<p>The only option was to dismantle apartheid through negotiations. This had to be done in a way that appealed to many across the political spectrum and colour line. These are facts of history that shaped post-apartheid South Africa thus far. But they do not seem to be fully appreciated. </p>
<p>The centenary of Mandela’s life offers an excellent chance to bring these facts to the fore, once and for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mashupye Herbert Maserumule received funding from the National Research Foundation. He is affiliated with the South African Association of Public Administration and Management. He is the Chief Editor of the Journal of Public Administration.</span></em></p>Nelson Mandela’s centenary celebrations provide a chance to debunk the lie that he sold out black South Africans.Mashupye Herbert Maserumule, Professor of Public Affairs, Tshwane University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/807802017-07-17T14:49:29Z2017-07-17T14:49:29ZThe best way South Africans can honour Mandela is by being active citizens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178432/original/file-20170717-23045-1qxlxnn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As one of the iconic leaders of the 20th century, <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/nelson-rolihlahla-mandela">Nelson Mandela</a> fought for democracy, justice, peace and reconciliation. He showed the world what it meant to live a life in the <a href="https://www.mandeladay.com/">service of others</a>.</p>
<p>In his own unique way, Mandela helped to restore the world’s trust and confidence in South Africa after apartheid. To honour his legacy the United Nations in 2009, decided that July 18, his birthday, would be <a href="https://www.mandeladay.com/">Mandela Day</a>.</p>
<p>People in 149 countries mark the day by taking time out to help others. As <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2013/12/06/nelson-mandela-madiba-meaning/3889469/">Madiba</a> – his clan name derived from his Xhosa ancestry – has shown, everyone has the ability and responsibility to help change the world for the better. </p>
<p>This year the <a href="https://www.nelsonmandela.org/">Nelson Mandela Foundation</a> is encouraging people to specifically take action <a href="http://www.krepublishers.com/02-Journals/JSS/JSS-34-0-000-13-Web/JSS-34-2-000-13-Abst-PDF/JSS-34-2-145-13-1393-Sekhampu-T-J/JSS-34-2-145-13-1393-Sekhampu-T-J-Tx%5B6%5D.pmd.pdf">against poverty</a>. More than 63% of South African children live in poverty; one in five - 12 million - South Africans live in <a href="http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/63-of-young-sa-children-live-in-poverty-study-20160513">extreme poverty</a>.</p>
<p>Despite the positive impact of <a href="http://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/6653">social grants</a>, poverty continues to halt progress in South Africa. Only through sustained development can it be eradicated to ensure a <a href="https://www.mandeladay.com/">dignified life</a> for all.</p>
<p>South Africa could do with its citizens becoming more active. In Brazil popular movements have worked with business elites to redistribute wealth and opportunity in a society that’s as unequal as South Africa. Without exception, development - particularly efforts to tackle poverty and inequality - is best achieved through a combination of <a href="https://www.oxfamamerica.org/static/media/files/From_Poverty_to_Power_2nd_Edition.pdf">active citizenship and effective states</a>.</p>
<p>South Africa needs a brave and moral leadership to redirect its citizens (and politicians) to fight the scourge of poverty through development. Moral leadership has the ability to educate and activate communities to restore human dignity. </p>
<h2>Positive publicity and effective governance</h2>
<p>The country’s <a href="http://www.gov.za/sites/www.gov.za/files/Executive%20Summary-NDP%202030%20-%20Our%20future%20-%20make%20it%20work.pdf">National Development Plan</a> aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. South Africa can realise these goals by drawing on the energies of its people. The country also needs to grow an inclusive economy, build capabilities, enhance the capacity of the state, and promote leadership and partnerships throughout society. </p>
<p>The plan makes it clear that to accelerate development, all South Africans must come on board. Leadership in all sectors must also put the country’s collective interests ahead of narrow, short-term goals. </p>
<p>This will require policy changes, the implementation of government programmes and holding people - especially political leaders - accountable for their actions. Also sorely needed are innovative solutions to complex challenges like <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-current-measures-underestimate-the-level-of-poverty-in-south-africa-46704?sa=pg2&sq=poverty&sr=3">poverty</a>, <a href="https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-unemployment-statistics-in-south-africa-explained/">unemployment</a> an <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2017-01-16-sas-rich-poor-gap-is-far-worse-than-feared-says-oxfam-inequality-report/">inequality</a>.</p>
<p>South Africa urgently needs to recover from the damage caused by <a href="http://www.politicsweb.co.za/opinion/how-zumafication-happened">“Zumafication”</a> – where its president is accused of running the country through personal networks of favouritism and cronyism. John Wallis, the founder of <a href="http://peoplecapital.yolasite.com/resources/D-Open%20Letters.Vol-1.pp.67-76-D-.pdf">The People Capital Project SA</a> says some members of President Jacob Zuma’s executive have become tainted as corrupt and untrustworthy kleptocrats. </p>
<p>Many promises, scenario plans and forecasts have not been translated into homegrown and concrete development proposals, backed by a robust development curriculum, to help South Africa turn the socio-economic corner. The country has yet to be characterised by high levels of innovation, equality, opportunities, economic justice and human rights.</p>
<p>As such, the hopes and expectations of the poor have collapsed, leaving them even poorer (and less productive) than they previously were.</p>
<p>Zuma has become a prisoner of his own making - both the tool and agent of a self-serving political elite, amid growing <a href="http://panmacmillan.bookslive.co.za/blog/2009/05/28/moeletsi-mbekis-architects-of-poverty-why-africas-capitalism-needs-changing/">poverty and hunger</a>. </p>
<p>How long can this go on before the country’s economy – already <a href="https://mg.co.za/article/2017-07-04-00-godongwana-anc-is-clueless-about-sas-economic-challenges/%E2%80%8B">in the doldrums</a> – implodes, and a deep rooted entitlement inspired complacency turns into social upheaval? </p>
<h2>Honouring Mandela’s legacy</h2>
<p>This state of affairs often leads to secrecy, deep political factions, <a href="http://pari.org.za/betrayal-promise-report/">state capture, looting and corruption</a>, as already seen. The growing dispossession of citizens amid growing accumulation by a few elites results in growing economic injustice, leaving more people on the fringes of society.</p>
<p>Where the state and corporate bosses are only driven by financial growth and gain, without coupling it with productive development projects, they hold the down-trodden to ransom.</p>
<p>South Africans can no longer standby and watch their “house” burn. To truly honour Mandela’s legacy, they should espouse the values of active citizenship and help restore the world’s confidence in their country. Otherwise, they’ll continue barking at the moon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80780/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To honour the legacy of Nelson Mandela, South Africa could do with its citizens becoming more active in driving development - particularly efforts to tackle poverty an inequality.Chris Jones, Academic project leader in the Department of Practical Theology and Missiology, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/632112016-07-29T07:54:02Z2016-07-29T07:54:02ZOpposition aims for upset in South Africa’s high-stakes election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132345/original/image-20160728-12089-44e2zc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters wait their turn outside a polling station at Nkonjeni village in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The country is gearing up for local elections.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Radu Sigheti</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The leading opposition party in South Africa, the Democratic Alliance (<a href="https://www.da.org.za/">DA</a>), has billed the August 3 2016 <a href="http://www.elections.org.za/content/Elections/2016-Municipal-Elections/Home/">municipal elections</a> in the country as the <a href="https://www.da.org.za/campaign/local-government-elections-2016/">most important ever</a>. The word “change” dominates the party’s posters.</p>
<p>But the DA is wrong: August 3 will not be the most important electoral date in South Africa – 1994 remains the most momentous year, when black people voted for the first time in the country’s history.</p>
<p>To an outside observer, the word “change” might suggest that the governing African National Congress (<a href="http://www.anc.org.za/splash/index">ANC</a>) will no longer be the majority party in South Africa after the elections. But those who follow South African politics closely know that such a thing is not about to happen.</p>
<p>The change the DA is touting is the expectation that the ANC might lose three closely contested metros: the <a href="http://www.localgovernment.co.za/metropolitans/view/1/Nelson-Mandela-Bay-Metropolitan-Municipality">Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality</a> on the Indian Ocean coast; <a href="http://www.localgovernment.co.za/metropolitans/view/2">Johannesburg</a>, the country’s economic heart; and <a href="http://www.localgovernment.co.za/metropolitans/view/3">Tshwane</a>, South Africa’s capital city.</p>
<p>Polls <a href="https://www.enca.com/south-africa/polls-can-the-anc-beat-the-da-in-johannesburg-tshwane-and-nelson-mandela-bay">suggest</a> that, in these municipalities, the ANC will not clinch a majority. This prognosis is not far-fetched, considering the party’s performance in the past three elections. As is evident in the table below, the party has been in decline.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132341/original/image-20160728-12116-188xcu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132341/original/image-20160728-12116-188xcu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132341/original/image-20160728-12116-188xcu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132341/original/image-20160728-12116-188xcu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132341/original/image-20160728-12116-188xcu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132341/original/image-20160728-12116-188xcu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132341/original/image-20160728-12116-188xcu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Supplied by author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Should this decline continue, which is what the polls conducted by research organisation Ipsos suggest, the ANC will not be able to constitute a government in these metros.</p>
<h2>Chasing an elusive, decisive win</h2>
<p>But the polls also predict that the DA will itself not clinch a majority in all three metros. So what’s the excitement about?</p>
<p>The DA’s exuberance lies in the expectation that, should the ANC fail to clinch a majority, the DA will gang up with smaller opposition parties to form a coalition government.</p>
<p>Were that to happen, the DA would be right to describe the 2016 elections as the most important to the party itself. For the first time since its inception, the DA would have the opportunity to co-govern two metros in Gauteng province and another in the Eastern Cape. It already runs the key city of <a href="http://www.rdm.co.za/politics/2015/06/10/da-s-cape-town-good-story-leaves-anc-eating-dust">Cape Town</a>. </p>
<p>Such a prospect is intriguing in that the DA seems set to co-govern with the Economic Freedom Fighters (<a href="http://effighters.org.za/">EFF</a>), the party projected to take third place in the upcoming elections. Ideologically, the <a href="https://www.da.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/DA-2016-LGE-Manifesto.pdf">DA</a> and the EFF don’t see eye to eye. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://tuteconomicfreedomfighters.wordpress.com/2014/04/15/7-cardinal-pillars-of-the-eff/">EFF wants to</a> nationalise mines and banks, and appropriate land from white farmers without compensation to distribute to black people – <em>à la</em> Robert Mugabe in <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14385342">Zimbabwe</a>. On the other hand, the DA is supported mainly by whites, and it worships capitalism and <a href="https://www.da.org.za/why-the-da/policies/job-business/economic-policy/">private property</a>.</p>
<p>If the DA and the EFF are so diametrically opposed, how could they ever dream of co-governing? Well, miracles are possible in South Africa. Who could imagine that the <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/topic/national-party-np">National Party</a>, the party of apartheid, would eventually <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/southafrica/1469022/Apartheid-party-fades-into-history-by-merging-with-ANC.html">dissolve into the ANC</a>, an anti-apartheid liberation movement? This miracle happened.</p>
<p>Both the DA and the EFF have already signalled that they are prepared to enter into a <a href="http://www.bdlive.co.za/national/politics/2015/10/06/news-analysis-da-leaves-door-open-to-coalition-with-eff-in-2016">coalition government</a> together, difficult as their negotiations will certainly be.</p>
<p>It should by now be clear: what is at stake in these elections is the possibility of the ANC losing three of its traditional support bases.</p>
<p>Historically, the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality has been a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-south-africas-nelson-mandela-bay-may-be-the-ancs-mini-waterloo-58010">stronghold of the ANC</a>, being home to many leaders of the liberation struggle, including two post-apartheid presidents, <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/nelson-rolihlahla-mandela">Nelson Mandela</a> and <a href="http://www.sahistory.org.za/people/thabo-mvuyelwa-mbeki">Thabo Mbeki</a>. Losing such a municipality would mean that the ANC is being rejected by its own constituency, and thus the party would need to do some serious soul-searching.</p>
<p>Losing both Tshwane and Johannesburg would mean effectively that the ANC-led national government has to knock on opposition parties’ door before entering South Africa’s economic nerve centre as well as the country’s seat of government.</p>
<p>It is now clear that, once it loses a metro, the ANC never gets it back. <a href="http://www.localgovernment.co.za/metropolitans/view/6/City-of-Cape-Town-Metropolitan-Municipality">Cape Town</a> is a case in point, where the DA has <a href="http://www.politicsweb.co.za/news-and-analysis/2011-election-cape-town-results">solidified its support</a> from its early shaky grounds. There the ANC seems gone – forever.</p>
<h2>What’s at stake</h2>
<p>If the ANC were to lose the three metros, it would essentially mean the end of Nelson Mandela’s party in Gauteng, the most urbanised province in South Africa. Thus, the party would be retreating into the obscurity of rural existence when the country’s future lies in the cities.</p>
<p>The mere fact that we can now speculate like this is a sign that South Africa is changing. The days of an ANC that has the throats of opposition parties confidently under its heel are over.</p>
<p>We are now entering a new era – the epoch of unpredictable politics. This is precisely what was in the heads of the thinkers who introduced the idea of democracy in ancient Greece.</p>
<p>This, perhaps, is what the DA means when it says the 2016 municipal elections are the most important ever. We must all wait to see if the word “change” on DA posters is reality or fiction come August 3.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63211/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Prince Mashele does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The opposition Democratic Alliance is hopeful that the African National Congress will fail to win a majority in three metros. This will open the door for it to rule in coalition with smaller parties.Prince Mashele, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/623172016-07-15T13:32:17Z2016-07-15T13:32:17ZReflections on building the South Africa of Nelson Mandela’s dreams<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130546/original/image-20160714-23353-f75a2x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nelson Mandela laughs with journalists and performers ahead of the second 46664 concert in the Western Cape in 2005.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Mike Hutchings</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a debate in South Africa about who <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36712717">Nelson Mandela belongs to</a>, as though he is the property of someone, a political party or a faction of the African National Congress.</p>
<p>Added to that, there is a new generation of young people – the “<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-34570761">born frees</a>” who never lived under apartheid – who now reject the political pacts he made during negotiations to end minority white domination. They see his compromises as selling out, entrenching white privilege and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-compromises-and-mistakes-made-in-the-mandela-era-hobbled-south-africas-economy-52156">failing the black majority</a>.</p>
<p>When celebrating <a href="http://www.mandeladay.com/">Nelson Mandela Day</a> on July 18, it would benefit South Africans to reflect on what his legacy means for the nation. It would also help to reflect on how South Africans are living up to his dreams for the country.</p>
<p>Three issues that are important to think about are the problems inherent in liberalism, gender oppression and precarious living conditions for the majority of South Africans.</p>
<h2>The limits of liberalism</h2>
<p>The parties that negotiated the <a href="http://www.gov.za/documents/constitution/Constitution-Republic-South-Africa-1996-1">final constitution</a> and the form of South Africa’s democracy between 1991 and 1994 made democratic pacts or compromises that constituted a liberal democracy, with many civil liberties and human rights embodied in the constitution.</p>
<p>The constitution, for example, includes 17 grounds for no discrimination of which race, gender and sexual orientation are three, making it one of the most progressive constitutions in the world.</p>
<p>The problem with liberalism is that it focuses on the individual and individual rights, not the community. But people live in communities and not as atomistic individuals without social relations. This is specifically relevant for Africans who adhere to a philosophy of <a href="http://www.africafiles.org/article.asp?ID=20359"><em>ubuntu</em></a> – that you are a person through your relationships with other people. </p>
<p>Liberalism also embodies <a href="http://www.philosophyonline.co.uk/oldsite/pom/pom_substance_dualism.htm">Cartesian dualism</a> – the distinction between mind and body. This means that we have to think of mind and body as two separate entities that do not affect each other. It also means that the mind is abstracted from the body and viewed as superior to the body.</p>
<p>But what the new generation is telling the world with its <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-student-protests-are-about-much-more-than-just-feesmustfall-49776">protests</a> on campuses is that the body matters very much. And the body matters because it is the embodiment of people’s experience. If your body is black you have a very different experience of the world than if your body is white. </p>
<p>If your body is that of a woman you have a very different experience of the world than if your body is that of a man. This generation has made “lived experience” central in its engagement with the world. “Black pain” is real. This is an existential pain caused by feelings of exclusion, not being taken seriously and feelings of alienation in institutional cultures that treat these individuals as “other”. In this regard the country needs a process of the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-africas-professors-are-afraid-of-colonial-education-being-dismantled-50930">decolonisation</a>” of the mind.</p>
<h2>Gender oppression</h2>
<p>The founding provisions of the constitution state that South Africa is a non-racial, non-sexist democracy that <a href="https://www.nelsonmandela.org/omalley/index.php/site/q/03lv02039/04lv02046/05lv02047/06lv02065/07lv02067.htm">values human dignity</a>. But South Africans are neither non-racial, or non-sexist. Putting the body and experience at the centre is actually a feminist strategy. Feminists were among the first to argue that the “<a href="http://womenshistory.about.com/od/feminism/a/consciousness_raising.htm">personal is political</a>”.</p>
<p>The student campaigns have also put the notion of intersectional feminism centre stage, where intersectionality means the dynamic relationship of interlocking oppressions of gender, race, class and other markers of identity. Young women, the majority of them black, are at the forefront to say that <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-south-africas-young-women-activists-are-rewriting-the-script-60980">second-class citizenship</a> for women is not acceptable. Women students have said they will no longer tolerate a “rape culture”. This is a culture in which women are objectified, sexually harassed, disrespected and unsafe.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130551/original/image-20160714-23323-c7ptno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130551/original/image-20160714-23323-c7ptno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130551/original/image-20160714-23323-c7ptno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130551/original/image-20160714-23323-c7ptno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=879&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130551/original/image-20160714-23323-c7ptno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130551/original/image-20160714-23323-c7ptno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130551/original/image-20160714-23323-c7ptno.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1105&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Admirers of former President Nelson Mandela.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Women students were prepared to <a href="http://witsvuvuzela.com/2016/04/26/wits-fmf-feminists-stand-in-solidarity-with-rureferencelist-protestors/">use their bodies</a> in topless marches to bring the point across that women should be able to walk the streets, even when they are topless, without being harassed. They embody the struggles against sexism, homophobia, the harassment of members of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, intersex and questioning (LGBTIQ) community and gender-based violence. </p>
<p>Presently South Africa has one of the highest levels of gender-based violence in the world and women are still discriminated against at work. Also, women bear the brunt of HIV infection, while those in the rural areas are often exposed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/unease-reigns-as-culture-and-the-constitution-collide-in-south-africa-41795">harmful cultural practices</a> such as <em><a href="http://www.justice.gov.za/brochure/ukuthwala/ukuthwala.html">ukuthwala</a></em> and virginity testing.</p>
<h2>Precarious lives</h2>
<p>We live in what can be called precarious times. The world is an unstable place with thousands migrating from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/european-policy-is-driving-refugees-to-more-dangerous-routes-across-the-med-56625">Middle East to Europe</a>, where urban terror has <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/is-urban-terrorism-is-the-new-normal-probably/">increased</a>. The global economy is wreaking havoc with those living in developing countries and xenophobic violence is on the <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-hidden-truth-the-rising-tide-of-global-racism-and-xenophobia/5428854">increase everywhere</a>.</p>
<p>Judith Butler, the American feminist theorist, talks about precarious lives, where conditions of uncertainty mean that through violence, uncertain income or no income and inequality, many are never sure that they may survive another day. Apartheid South Africa was the cause of <a href="http://www.wkv-stuttgart.de/uploads/media/butler-judith-precarious-life.pdf">precarious lives</a> for most black South Africans. The operation of law was precarious and more often than not did not result in justice.</p>
<p>Conditions of precariousness in South Africa are fuelled by the lack of moral authority in our political leadership. This can be viewed in the treatment of the Public Protector’s findings on the misappropriation of funds for the president’s <a href="http://constitutionallyspeaking.co.za/why-report-of-nkandla-ad-hoc-committee-is-of-no-legal-relevance/">private home at Nkandla</a>, as well as forms of <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-south-africas-public-broadcaster-be-saved-from-itself-62185">censorship</a> exercised by the South African Broadcasting Corporation.</p>
<p>South Africans will have to reimagine the possibility of community if they want to live together peacefully in this country. They have to start in a sense, as <a href="http://www.wkv-stuttgart.de/uploads/media/butler-judith-precarious-life.pdf">Butler says</a>, with the questions: who counts as human? Whose lives count as lives? What makes for a liveable and a grievable life? </p>
<p>South Africans need to think back and remember that point of embracing the constitution 20 years ago. They have to continue to understand the impetus of reconciliation that is embodied in the constitution. They cannot afford to forget this – and they owe it to Mandela, who supported a version of liberalism that is inclusive and accepting of diversity, not to do so. He was a man who believed in all forms of equality – be it race or gender or other forms of identity. And he worked towards ending precarious conditions. </p>
<p>In these efforts all South Africans have a role to play.</p>
<p><em>This is a shortened, edited version of a keynote address delivered at the <a href="http://www.sun.ac.za/english/Lists/Events/DispForm.aspx?ID=3077">Nelson Mandela Colloquium</a> recently.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Gouws receives funding from the National Science Foundation</span></em></p>When celebrating Nelson Mandela Day, it would benefit South Africans to reflect on what the statesman’s legacy means for the nation and how they are living up to his dreams for the country.Amanda Gouws, Professor of Political Science, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.