tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/nsw-election-2015-13822/articlesNSW election 2015 – The Conversation2015-04-17T05:02:25Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/401692015-04-17T05:02:25Z2015-04-17T05:02:25ZShock NSW upper house result doesn’t alter balance of power<p>At midday today, the final election results for the NSW Legislative Council <a href="https://twitter.com/nsw_upperhouse/status/588881573887410176">were released</a>. Considerable speculation has raged – in circles where that type of speculation “rages” – about the outcome of the final quota spot for the 21 seats up for election in 2015. </p>
<p>This <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-election-last-upper-house-seat-hangs-in-the-balance-with-the-possibility-of-a-legal-challenge-20150412-1mjenh.html">speculation shifted</a> from the Greens winning the seat – thereby replicating their strong results in the 2014 Victorian election – to the Coalition picking up an extra quota. That would have given the Baird government exactly half of all of the available seats. </p>
<p>Also tipped as a chance was No Land Tax. Revelations about the single-issue party’s electoral practices and key personalities attracted considerable attention over the past week. In the final count, the Animal Justice Party <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-17/animal-justice-party-wins-seat-in-nsw-upper-house/6400492">edged out</a> its micro-party rival to claim the final seat.</p>
<h2>… and then it got interesting</h2>
<p>If you’ve ever been to an awkward dinner party where your ageing Christian aunt ends up wedged next to the swinging proponent of polyamory who you know from university, then you’ve got a sense of what the NSW Legislative Council is going to feel like for the next eight years. </p>
<p>Today’s results leave Mark Pearson, the newly elected representative of the <a href="http://animaljusticeparty.org/">Animal Justice Party</a> (AJP), sitting on the cross-benches next to the two <a href="http://www.shootersandfishers.org.au/">Shooters and Fishers Party</a> members. It’s a match-up that should make Nationals member <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/hansart.nsf/V3Key/LC20140325009">Duncan Gay’s asides to Greens MLC John Kaye</a> look like Shakespearean sonnets. </p>
<p>For those who don’t know Pearson or the AJP, the party is the electoral offshoot of <a href="http://www.animal-lib.org.au/">Animal Liberation</a>, the movement that took its name and ideas from Peter Singer’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Liberation_%28book%29">1975 book</a> on the exploitation of animals by humans. Animal Liberation, through its membership in national groups like <a href="http://www.animalsaustralia.org/">Animals Australia</a> (recently involved closely in uncovering <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2015/02/16/4178920.htm">illegal greyhound training using live animal bait</a>), may represent a comparatively small social movement, but has been making waves for years with campaigns against caged egg production, pig production systems, live exports and sheep mulesing. </p>
<p>The Shooters and Fishers are probably best known for their support for the NSW Game Council, which the O’Farrell government dissolved amid claims that its management <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/game-council-boss-convicted-on-hunting-gun-charges-20140213-32nd9.html">engaged in illegal hunting</a>, and advocacy of legalising hunting in state forests. Needless to say, the AJP does not approve of hunting.</p>
<p>Fireworks aside, the AJP has some serious issues it want to pursue. State politics is the right level for these concerns: by and large, animal welfare (private ownership, entertainment and commercial production) is regulated by state and territory legislation. The animal rights movement has been frustrated for years at its lack of legislative progress on such issues. </p>
<h2>AJP faces four years of frustration</h2>
<p>While the final quota result is somewhat surprising, even wrong-footing veteran election watcher Antony Green, the overall outcome of the election was not in doubt. </p>
<p>The strong showing by the Coalition parties, with 20 of the 42 seats in the upper house, means they need only negotiate with one minor party to get their legislation adopted. While much speculation about this has focused on the Reverend Fred Nile’s <a href="http://www.christiandemocraticparty.com.au/">Christian Democrats</a>, who have two seats, the Shooters and Fishers’ animosity to the previous government may have been expunged by the exit of the premier, Barry O’Farrell, from state politics.</p>
<p>It’s clear that Premier Mike Baird and his government would be wise to maintain good relations with both minor parties. This would ensure the Coalition has options in negotiating policies through the legislature. In particular, the government’s fiscal and political legitimacy rests upon the issue of electricity asset privatisation.</p>
<p>Given the tendency of Animal Justice supporters to lean left, Pearson is not going to have much scope to broker the type of policy outcomes he wants from the Coalition. The Nationals in particular see Animal Liberationists as an existential threat to their livelihoods and way of life.</p>
<p>Pearson clearly has some allies in the Greens MLCs; that party was instrumental in initiating an <a href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/greyhoundracing">inquiry into greyhound racing</a> before the ABC’s Four Corners and the animal rights movement lifted the lid on misconduct in the industry. This may be significant after the 2019 state election if that gives the Greens and AJP the kingmaker role. But it’s going to be a long four years for the new party.</p>
<h2>No Land Tax Party may feel relief</h2>
<p>The big “losers” from the announcement are <a href="http://www.nolandtax.com.au/">No Land Tax</a>, which seemed on track to pick up the last seat. However, given that the pressure of prospective success appeared to begin tearing the party apart, this may be a relief to some of its key figures. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-election-2015-no-land-tax-party-election-day-staff-worried-about-payment-20150331-1mc0pj.html">Questions remain</a> about the party’s use of the NSW official crest on one of its websites, its failure to pay campaign staff and the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/no-land-tax-candidate-list-reveals-party-may-be-all-in-the-family-20150314-1441qv.html">source of its funds</a>. However, as No Land Tax slides back into obscurity, the media and major parties are less likely to pursue these questions.</p>
<p>The victory of the AJP is also likely to be a relief to the NSW Electoral Commission and the state’s taxpayers. It was one of two parties <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-election-2015-19000-electronic-votes-considered-valid-despite-error-on-ballot-paper-20150318-1m21pi.html">not listed on the iVote system’s electronic ballot paper</a> as 19,000 votes were cast online before the error was corrected. The result means there is considerably less chance of a challenge to the vote or of a new election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter John Chen is currently working on a book on animal welfare policy making in Australia. Members of his extended family are members of Animal Liberation and related groups, others work in animal industries.</span></em></p>It’s clear that the Baird government would be wise to maintain good relations with minor parties in the NSW upper house.Peter John Chen, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/395082015-04-12T20:33:10Z2015-04-12T20:33:10ZDo more roads really mean less congestion for commuters?<p>Congestion is a major source of frustration for road users and has worsened over time in most cities. Different solutions have been proposed, such as introducing congestion charging (a favourite of transport economists) or investing in public transport. One solution that is most <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases-premier/busting-congestion-300-million-create-gateway-south">often</a> put forward is to <a href="http://www.danielandrews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Victorian-Labors-Project-10000.pdf">build</a> more roads, but does this approach work?</p>
<p>A recent <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2014/03/04/the-most-traffic-jammed-cities-in-the-u-s/">study</a> in the United States identified Los Angeles, Honolulu and San Francisco as the top three most gridlocked cities in the United States. All of these cities use almost exclusively road-based solutions to transport citizens.</p>
<p>While China has increased its <a href="https://www.kpmg.com/cn/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/Transport-Logistics-in-China-201112.pdf">expressway network</a> from 16,300 km in the year 2000 to around 70,000 km in 2010, the average commute time in <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-09/29/content_18679171.htm">Beijing</a> for 2013 was 1 hour and 55 minutes, up 25 minutes from just the year before.</p>
<p>Why, then, do residents of these cities with large amounts of road capacity, not live in a driving utopia?</p>
<h2>Induced demand</h2>
<p>The first concept you need to get your head around is called <em>induced demand</em>. </p>
<p>Think about the street on which you live. If a new road makes driving to work quicker, you may benefit from that, but this reduced travel time might be enough to encourage two other people in your street to start driving; and two more people in the next street; and two more people in the street after that; and so on. Very quickly the drive to work takes just as long as it ever did.</p>
<p>In transportation, this well-established response is known in various contexts as the Downs-Thomson Paradox, The Pigou-Knight-Downs Paradox or the Lewis-Mogridge Position: a new road may provide motorists with some level of respite from congestion in the short term but almost all of the benefit from the road will be lost in the longer term.</p>
<p>Further, while more roads may solve congestion locally, more traffic on the road network may result in more congestion elsewhere. In Sydney, for example, the <a href="http://www.westconnex.com.au/">WestConnex</a> may improve traffic conditions on Parramatta Road, but may worsen congestion in the city.</p>
<h2>Weakest links</h2>
<p>Congestion is determined by the weakest links in the road network. If road capacity expansion does not involve widening of these bottleneck links, congestion may simply move to another part of the network without solving the congestion problem. Moreover, it could potentially make congestion even worse.</p>
<p>The Braess Paradox is a famous example in which building new roads in the wrong location can lead to longer travel times for everyone, even without induced demand, because such new roads may lead more car drivers to the weakest links in the network. The reverse may also be true: removing roads may even improve traffic conditions.</p>
<p>This paradox occurs because each driver chooses the route that is quickest without considering the implications his or her choice has on other drivers. Car drivers only care about the number of vehicles in the queue in front of them and do not care about vehicles queueing behind them. This is a classic problem in game theory, very similar to the type for which <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/mediaplayer/index.php?id=429">John Nash</a> was awarded a Nobel Prize.</p>
<h2>What does the data say?</h2>
<p>One US <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.6.2616">study</a> has shown a strong relationship between the amount of new road length and the total amount of kilometres travelled in US cities, a finding the authors of that study termed “the fundamental law of road congestion”.</p>
<p>Similar findings are reported in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856411001728">Spain</a> and in the <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF00166218">United States</a>, where even major road capacity increases can actually lead to little or <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.2014.956871#.VRpXEPmUePY">no reduction</a> in network traffic densities. It has also been found to exist in <a href="http://www.ejtir.tudelft.nl/issues/2012_03/pdf/2012_03_02.pdf">Europe</a>, where neglecting induced demand has led to biases in appraising of environmental impacts as well as the economic viability of proposed road projects.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77608/original/image-20150410-6849-16a35hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77608/original/image-20150410-6849-16a35hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77608/original/image-20150410-6849-16a35hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77608/original/image-20150410-6849-16a35hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77608/original/image-20150410-6849-16a35hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77608/original/image-20150410-6849-16a35hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77608/original/image-20150410-6849-16a35hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77608/original/image-20150410-6849-16a35hq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New South Wales Premier Mike Baird’s successful re-election campaign promised motorists more roads and less traffic.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In <a href="http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/230107/Zeibots-EWS.pdf">Sydney</a>, there is similar evidence from traffic volumes crossing the harbour. The Sydney Harbour Bridge was carrying a stable traffic volume of around 180,000 vehicles per day from 1986 to 1991. The Sydney Harbour Tunnel opened in 1992, and the total volume of traffic crossing the harbour increased in 1995 to almost 250,000 vehicles per day. This 38% increase in traffic can be attributed to induced demand and not to population growth (which was around <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3105.0.65.0012014?OpenDocument">4% during this period</a>).</p>
<p>Empirical observations have also confirmed the existence of the <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF01918335#page-1">Braess Paradox</a>. For example, in 1969 a new road was built in Stuttgart, Germany, which did not improve the traffic conditions. After closing the road again, congestion <a href="http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-642-95121-3">decreased</a>.</p>
<p>Similar observations in which road closure led to improved traffic conditions have been observed in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2013.00662.x/pdf">New York City</a>, where upon closing 42nd street (a major crosstown street in Manhattan) it was observed that traffic was significantly less congested than average.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10683-013-9378-4#page-1">recent</a> experimental study confirmed that this paradox still exists by showing that expanding road capacity can result in worse traffic conditions for everybody.</p>
<p>The theory of induced demand is accepted by a large majority, but not by everyone.</p>
<p>For example, authors of a 2001 <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v33y2001i12p1579-1585.html">paper</a> have argued that induced demand does not exist. However, UK researchers Goodwin and Noland have <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0003684032000089872#.VRzO5TuUf-U">criticised</a> this study. </p>
<p>In isolation, building more roads can certainly improve traffic conditions but these effects may only be local and only in the short run. Congestion may become worse in other parts of the network and experience shows that spare road capacity is quickly filled up with new cars.</p>
<p>Even without the extra road users that new roads create, if the new roads are built in the wrong locations congestion may actually become worse simply because of the way people behave. Roads alone do not solve congestion in the long term; they are only one (problematic) tool in a transport management toolkit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39508/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michiel Bliemer receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Beck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new road may provide motorists with some level of respite from congestion in the short term. But almost all of the benefit from the road will be lost in the longer term.Matthew Beck, Senior Lecturer in Infrastructure Management, University of SydneyMichiel Bliemer, Professor in Transport and Logistics Network Modelling, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/396892015-04-08T20:06:40Z2015-04-08T20:06:40ZEarly voting hits new highs in NSW and Australia, but is it a good idea?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77287/original/image-20150408-26515-ujbvqs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">About one in four Australians are skipping the polling day queues and voting early.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sunanda Creagh</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The ultimate result of the New South Wales election is still waiting on the resolution of the upper house where <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/results/lc/">counting continues</a>. A <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/mike-baird-better-off-sacrificing-seat-than-face-re-run/story-e6frg6n6-1227294795925">possible court challenge</a> could lead to a fresh upper house poll being called. That leaves the re-elected Baird government’s plans hanging in the balance.</p>
<p>Unlike the narrow Labor wins at the recent <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-01/queensland-election-2015-kap-ready-to-cut-deal-with-labor/6060296">Queensland</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bushtelegraph/vic-election/5931224">Victorian</a> elections, which caught many pollsters off-guard, the comfortable NSW Liberal National victory on <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-voters-set-to-back-baird-but-upper-house-is-too-close-to-call-38034">March 28</a> was widely predicted. </p>
<p>But the elections did all have one thing in common: they showed that the old notion of “polling day” is increasingly outdated. Early voting is rising rapidly across Australia, including in the latest NSW election.</p>
<p>In 1995, only <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/about_elections/electoral_statistics">4% of NSW electors</a> voted early. By the 2011 election, it was <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/about_elections/electoral_statistics">15%</a>. The early figures indicate that could climb to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/prepoll-results-for-nsw-election-2015-electoral-commission-says-increasing-numbers-voting-before-election-day-20150331-1mb8ii.html">about 25%</a> in 2015. (That includes about 640,000 prepoll votes and 284,000 online votes via the iVote system, while the final number of postal votes is still to be confirmed.)</p>
<p>According to the company operating iVote at this election, <a href="http://www.scytl.com/en/">Scytl</a>, NSW <a href="http://www.scytl.com/en/news/new-south-wales-leads-the-way-in-internet-voting-and-edemocracy-innovation/">set a record</a> for the most online votes in any government election worldwide, beating the previous record of more than 240,000 online votes set by <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/speaker/digital-democracy/FR_Successcase.pdf">France</a>, as well as recent online votes in <a href="https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-nsw-election-online-votes-open-to-tampering-39164">Estonia and Norway</a>. It also represented a sixfold increase from the <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/96297/SGE_2010-2011_Amended.pdf">46,864 iVotes</a> at the 2011 NSW election. That’s entirely in line with Australians being early adopters of technology, such as <a href="http://landing.deloitte.com.au/rs/deloitteaus/images/Deloitte_Mobile_Consumer_Survey_2014.pdf">smartphones</a>.</p>
<p>Overall, the high early vote in NSW mirrors a trend seen <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-more-and-more-australians-are-voting-before-election-day-37159">in other state</a> and federal elections. For instance, at the 2013 federal election, more than 26% of voters voted early. That was more than double the rate of a decade earlier.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76850/original/image-20150402-31287-1ko0v8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76850/original/image-20150402-31287-1ko0v8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76850/original/image-20150402-31287-1ko0v8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76850/original/image-20150402-31287-1ko0v8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76850/original/image-20150402-31287-1ko0v8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76850/original/image-20150402-31287-1ko0v8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76850/original/image-20150402-31287-1ko0v8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76850/original/image-20150402-31287-1ko0v8z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Early voting in Australian federal elections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2440075">Australian Electoral Commission, 2014</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76849/original/image-20150402-31312-ae42vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76849/original/image-20150402-31312-ae42vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76849/original/image-20150402-31312-ae42vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=70&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76849/original/image-20150402-31312-ae42vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=70&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76849/original/image-20150402-31312-ae42vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=70&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76849/original/image-20150402-31312-ae42vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=89&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76849/original/image-20150402-31312-ae42vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=89&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76849/original/image-20150402-31312-ae42vl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=89&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian Electoral Commission.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2440075">Early Voting in Australian Federal Elections: Causes and Consequences, 2014</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But is it good for democracy to have so many people voting before polling day? And how are Australia’s political parties likely to change their campaign strategies to woo early voters?</p>
<h2>Electoral commissions offering more options</h2>
<p>Australian election commissions like to be thought of as custodians of their electoral system and tend to see themselves as the most <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/%7E/%7E/link.aspx?_id=AE1A1EC4416D423A94F9BFAB52215FD2&_z=z">independent parts of the public service</a>. With a limited role in policing candidates’ political behaviour (with the exception of South Australia, where the commission <a href="http://www.eca.gov.au/systems/australia/by_area/sa.htm">regulates truth in political advertising</a>), their focus is on protecting the integrity of the electoral administrative process and expanding participation.</p>
<p>While the former is most visible in the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/wa-senate-2014/">breach rather than the observance</a>, the latter is seen in voter awareness campaigns, personalised reminder services, electoral reminder mail, easier voter enrolment (such as <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/enrol_to_vote/smartroll">automatic enrolment in NSW</a>) and an increased range of options for early voting.</p>
<p>In NSW, those options include pre-poll voting at physical voting locations, postal ballots and the predominantly online <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/voting/ivote">iVote</a> electronic voting system.</p>
<p>iVote is not without its <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsws-online-gamble-why-internet-and-phone-voting-is-too-risky-37465">critics</a> – and in this election a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-election-2015-19000-electronic-votes-considered-valid-despite-error-on-ballot-paper-20150318-1m21pi.html">human error</a> meant 19,000 votes were cast online while two minor parties (the Outdoor Recreation Party and the Animal Justice Party) were not listed above the line on the upper house ballot paper. The Animal Justice Party is still in the race against the Coalition for the final upper house seat. If it narrowly misses out, there is a strong chance of a <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/mike-baird-better-off-sacrificing-seat-than-face-re-run/story-e6frg6n6-1227294795925">legal challenge</a>.</p>
<p>But even amid widespread media coverage of that error and other <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2015/s4202723.htm">potential security concerns</a>, the popularity of online voting in this election beat even the state electoral commission’s <a href="http://www.cio.com.au/article/545546/nsw_electoral_commission_cio_says_ivote_system_will_ensure_counting_accuracy/">forecasts</a> of 200,000 to 250,000 iVotes.</p>
<h2>Convenience vs cohesion: the pros and cons of early voting</h2>
<p>It is generally agreed why electors vote early: <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2440075">convenience</a>. Rather than lining up on a Saturday, what many people see as a chore can now be completed at leisure. </p>
<p>Swinburne’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-more-and-more-australians-are-voting-before-election-day-37159">Nathan Reader</a> has previously pointed out that that this matches a changing tempo of life: more Australians work on weekends, are busier than ever before and are less tolerant of what they perceive as inflexible compliance with government.</p>
<p>So the real question is whether the early voting trend in Australia is significant, or just another part of the larger change that has come with the rise of the convenience economy.</p>
<p>The most prevalent argument against early voting is that it undermines the “function” of elections: that in a representative democracy, citizens who are largely absent from the day-to-day governmental process should stop once every few years and have a good, hard think before voting.</p>
<p>This is a “republican” (as in Rome) model of citizenship that places emphasis on the individuals adherence to the civic duties to be <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/early-voting-the-case-against-102748.html#.VSHPZOThlC0">engaged, informed and participative</a>. In this context, then, elections should be “focusing events” filled with information-rich political discourse: from candidates to electors in the form of policy ideas; from electors to candidates in the form of questions; and between electors, debating the key issues. </p>
<p>This allows citizens to make informed decisions they can feel committed to. It also gives governments legitimacy for their programs and allows political elites to accurately gauge popular opinion.</p>
<p>The idea is that the contest of ideas runs right runs up to polling day. And the electronic media blackout just before the poll gives us all time to retire to our homes unmolested to reflect, weigh up what policies matter most to us and consider all the pros and cons, opportunity costs, risks and trade-offs.</p>
<p>There is another argument against early voting: that it undermines an important <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/dft/publications/electoral-simultaneity-expressing-equal-respect">social cohesion process</a>, emphasising collectivity and equality, which is the point of having elections in the first place. Some people feel that by removing the “gathering together” aspect of elections, pre-poll, postal and online voting also undermine a key civil ritual.</p>
<p>These perspectives do have merit, but they overstate the significance of elections. Indeed, these views make elections synonymous with democracy itself: a formalistic view of a complex concept. Elections can be important civic rituals, but they can also be ritualistic. Elections are often not competitive, but simply serve to re-endorse an existing government. </p>
<h2>The battle for swinging voters</h2>
<p>Concerns that early voting will significantly change exactly “when” people make a vote decision also appears unfounded. As the figure below shows – drawing from <a href="http://aes.anu.edu.au/">Australian Electoral Study</a> data – the majority of Australian voters have already made a decision on how to vote before a federal election is called.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77079/original/image-20150406-26481-7irnu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77079/original/image-20150406-26481-7irnu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77079/original/image-20150406-26481-7irnu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77079/original/image-20150406-26481-7irnu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77079/original/image-20150406-26481-7irnu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77079/original/image-20150406-26481-7irnu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77079/original/image-20150406-26481-7irnu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/77079/original/image-20150406-26481-7irnu2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Drawn using data from the 2013 Australian Electoral Study.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://aes.anu.edu.au">aes.anu.edu.au</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Swinging voters who decide how to vote late in the campaign are often disparaged as uninformed, “soft” and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-11/throsby-swinging-voters/4950200">under-engaged</a>. </p>
<p>Whether that is true or not, our political parties have tended to respond as if it is. Electoral messages are simplistic and put on high rotation, following a model of audiences that assumes low levels of attention, interest, recall and cognitive processing. The rise of early voting in Australia does not appear to have significantly changed this jaundiced view of the public.</p>
<p>However, one way that increased early voting is changing elections campaigns is that parties know that electors may “defect” from the campaign and vote early. </p>
<p>Traditional election campaigns have four distinct time periods: frame (the campaign); defame (the opponent); explain (the policy); and acclaim (move to a positive commitment decision close to polling day).</p>
<p>The increased availability of early voting options will mean there is a stronger incentive for parties to “win” the political communication game in each day of the campaign.</p>
<p>Early voting options also means that campaign communications will try to be more persuasive: don’t just vote for me, but vote for me <em>right now</em>. Opposition parties will need to have higher visibility between elections, so will need to campaign rather than attempt small-target strategies. Governments, as always, will need to perform because elections are theirs to lose, not to win.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39689/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter John Chen is a bad republican citizen and has voted early.</span></em></p>More than 280,000 votes were cast online at the NSW election, which has been claimed as a new world record. The state’s early vote also looks set to hit a new high, mirroring a trend across Australia.Peter John Chen, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/374742015-04-08T00:41:46Z2015-04-08T00:41:46ZAustralian politics’ Kodak moment spells trouble for the major parties<p>When people talk about disruption, they mostly tell the stories of what has happened to big businesses such as Kodak, Blockbuster, Barnes and Noble, and most of the world’s newspapers.</p>
<p>Consumers have stood by and watched the near destruction of the company that created Kodak moments. As I saw as a newspaper editor, people have also increasingly stopped picking up the newspapers that once recorded their own births and marriages, instead gleaning their news from digital and social media. Jobs have vanished with the businesses that funded them; jobs have changed or been created in ways we might not have imagined.</p>
<p>Senior Australian politicians are increasingly recognising those <a href="http://www.joehockey.com/media/speeches/details.aspx?s=164">disruptive forces</a> and the need to adapt by rethinking everything from <a href="http://theconversation.com/government-calls-for-tax-rethink-but-reform-answers-abound-39436">the way we’re taxed</a> to how <a href="http://theconversation.com/harper-makes-case-for-competition-overhaul-experts-react-39582">businesses compete</a> in a fast-changing global economy.</p>
<p>The same forces of disruption that are shaking up industries and economies around the world are now having a discernible effect on another area of established power: Australia’s major political parties. That means politicians and political activists alike should be rethinking how they work too.</p>
<h2>Snapshots of change</h2>
<p>Exhibit A of the rapidly changing political landscape was January’s Queensland election. A government that had been elected with Australia’s largest majority three years ago was voted out of office. </p>
<p>Exhibit B is Tony Abbott, leading a Coalition government with a near-record majority, who is still fighting for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-06/newpoll-shows-coalition-support-dips-west-australian-stronghold/6372240">his political life</a> ahead of next month’s crucial federal budget,</p>
<p>Whether in Queensland or in Canberra, each of those governments has lost favour more quickly than the Instamatic camera and film. Their time in the sun has proven to be as fleeting as a Kodak moment.</p>
<p>Exhibit C, perhaps surprisingly to some, is the March 28 New South Wales election. While popular Premier Mike Baird and his Liberal National government were re-elected, there were some extraordinary swings across the state, particularly in regional areas. As Sydney Morning Herald columnist <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/violent-mood-swings-masked-in-the-nsw-election-result-20150401-1mcq9z.html">Paul Sheehan described it</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>subsumed within the relatively bland overall numbers was a wave of violent voting shifts across the electorate.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But this political shift didn’t just begin this year.</p>
<p>For Exhibit D, take a closer look at the 2013 federal election results. As ABC election analyst <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/11/record-vote-for-minor-parties-at-2013-federal-election.html#more">Antony Green has shown</a>, there was record support for minor parties and independents in both the lower and upper houses of federal parliament. More than one in five (21.1%) votes in the House of Representatives and nearly a third (32.2%) of Senate votes were directed away from the major parties.</p>
<p>Yet just like many of the business leaders who didn’t want to admit the world was shifting beneath their feet, many in the political class appear to be deluded about the disruption they’re now experiencing. </p>
<p>It’s easier to blame your problems on an inattentive media and electorate, unable to digest complex issues, than admit that perhaps it’s time to rethink the political product you’re selling. This is the same mistake the victims of business disruption have made.</p>
<h2>Lessons from business for politicians</h2>
<p>Just consider what disruption has done to business. Kodak didn’t <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-01-19/kodak-photography-pioneer-files-for-bankruptcy-protection-1-">go bankrupt in 2012</a> and <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2015/01/uber-and-kodak-ghosts-at-disruption-feast/">lose its place</a> as a dominant global consumer brand because people lost interest in taking photographs; there have never been more photographs taken than today. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72847/original/image-20150224-32235-10o85na.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72847/original/image-20150224-32235-10o85na.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/72847/original/image-20150224-32235-10o85na.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72847/original/image-20150224-32235-10o85na.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72847/original/image-20150224-32235-10o85na.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=778&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72847/original/image-20150224-32235-10o85na.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=978&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72847/original/image-20150224-32235-10o85na.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=978&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/72847/original/image-20150224-32235-10o85na.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=978&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When Kodak was still king: a Kodak Instamatic camera advertisement, published in Ebony, August 1964.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/29069717@N02/14204084700/in/photolist-nDaDw5-9vwrK4-6KYxzd-9uj6kZ-yLEu3-37PXD7-4q7Ltr-mL9kLs-9j5AZz-bQeAVk-pRoRyR-cHG713-NrmAs-gmRHJ-67azCC-jQv8f-ppKWQB-nneoLi-64ndVm-e9Fmq5-9wZHrs-37Kqg2-37Q1MY-37KoyZ-37PZ7h-5NWNsc-6PTh13-56twgm-4pZ4Xz-cUaAsJ-cUaAo5-cUayFj-cUayCq-cUayyE-cUaAeL-cUaAim-bvWCG1-E8ch7-i2B3cD-fqsQLn-58ypR4-q2u74-J1krn-kmue6W-e6EBnH-jQv8h-kmrLuK-juPFMJ-dXeCKG-82mvgJ">Classic Film/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Instead, consumers simply moved on, adopting new technologies, brands and devices. That left Kodak as a shadow of its old self, forced to <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2013/11/01/there-and-back-again-10-companies-that-returned-to-the-market-after-bankruptcy/">reinvent itself</a> mainly in <a href="http://www.kodak.com/ek/US/en/Our_Company/History_of_Kodak/Imaging-_the_basics.htm">corporate</a> rather than consumer markets.</p>
<p>Similarly, more news is being read and talked about than ever – but the source is increasingly not a newspaper. Again, changing technology has driven a shift to new devices and brands, and sparked a revolution in consumer behaviour that has left many established media businesses struggling to find <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2014/01/10/old-media-can-still-thrive-but-business-models-need-to-adapt/">new business models</a>.</p>
<h2>Big political brands on the wane</h2>
<p>The story of politics over recent decades has been the story of greater and greater alignment to brands in the commercial sense, and less alignment to dogmatic positions that defined politics in the cold war era. This has practical and measurable benefits for the politicians, their party organisations and the industry of market researchers and advertising agencies that hang off them.</p>
<p>It made voting a similar decision to consumer choice. While the big brands are strong, the loyalty sticks. But it’s a very different story when the brand weakens and the loyalty loosens.</p>
<p>That’s what has happened to politics. Swings of <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-queensland-election-results-labors-stunning-revival-37616">10% or more</a> between elections are now frequent, as are one-term governments and leaders who struggle to make it halfway through an elected term, as the prime minister has discovered. None of this helps the brand, which only adds to the lack of loyalty (or promiscuity) of the voter.</p>
<p>So if we follow the patterns of digital disruption in business, where could this lead us in politics?</p>
<h2>New political solutions</h2>
<p>We can be confident that the business of government and politics will continue. After all, its survival is legislated. And the public kind of likes democracy.</p>
<p>So far, the politicians and party organisations have dabbled with some of the tools of disruption to protect their positions. Most politicians tweet, share stories on Facebook and line up for selfies with their true believers. But this is at the margins rather than the core of political practice. </p>
<p>Fundamentally, politics is still built around internal loyalties and a win-at-all-costs approach to a range of complex issues. Yet most of the choices they face involve the decisions we must make to share the available resources among a growing population on a finite planet. If the tensions those choices create isn’t disruptive, I don’t know what is.</p>
<p>The changed consumer needs, aligned with technology, must change the practice of politics; the only question is how.</p>
<p>One answer might lie in the latest manifestation of disruption, the evolution of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/search?q=sharing+economy">sharing economy</a>. This involves the use of digital tools to harness unused capacity and put it to productive use: for example, <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2015/01/uber-and-kodak-ghosts-at-disruption-feast/">Uber</a> as a ride-sharing app and <a href="http://journalistsresource.org/studies/economics/business/airbnb-lyft-uber-bike-share-sharing-economy-research-roundup">AirBnB</a> as an accommodation service.</p>
<p>What might this look like in politics? Imagine a mobile app where a third-party provider can harness support for an issue and deliver it as a bloc to a group of politicians willing to make available their legislative capacity. </p>
<p>Fanciful? Well, in effect, that’s what has already happened to the transport industry and the accommodation industry. It will take just one balance-of-power crossbencher in an Australian parliament to take up the idea to give it traction. And isn’t the basis of politics to understand what the public wants and to deliver it efficiently?</p>
<p>If politics follows the pattern of disruption, it will do just that. But the old brands risk falling by the wayside unless they face the reality that hanging on to the old ways almost certainly guarantees oblivion. Just ask Kodak.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37474/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Fagan was editor and editor-in-chief of Queensland’s major newspaper The Courier-Mail for a decade and was News Corp's editorial director in Queensland before joining QUT.</span></em></p>The same forces of disruption that are changing industries and economies around the world are now having a discernible effect on Australian politics – and that’s bad news for the major parties.David Fagan, Adjunct Professor, QUT Business School, and Director of Corporate Transition, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/396002015-03-31T11:25:44Z2015-03-31T11:25:44ZExpelling Martin Ferguson would be a bad look for Labor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76584/original/image-20150331-1274-1wpk23u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Martin Ferguson criticised New South Wales Labor's campaign against privatisation of the poles and wires. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bill Shorten should resist the witch-hunt against former ALP minister Martin Ferguson over his attacks on NSW Labor’s anti-privatisation campaign.</p>
<p>The idea that the Labor Party should expel Ferguson – which is now to be considered – is dumb.</p>
<p>Many Labor members, and particularly union members, are deeply angry with the one-time resources minister, after the NSW Liberals ran an advertisement with a clip of him saying state Labor was telling a “bald lie” about electricity privatisation.</p>
<p>On election night there was an extraordinary outburst from senator Sam Dastyari, a former general secretary of the NSW branch, who accused Ferguson of “a bastard act”, declaring “there is no place in the Labor party for Martin Ferguson”.</p>
<p>Questioned about his attitude to the push to expel Ferguson, Shorten on Tuesday had a bob each-way. “On the one hand the Labor Party is a broad church and individuals periodically contradict the policy or they even publicly have a disagreement, which you wish they wouldn’t, but that happens,” Shorten said.</p>
<p>“But on the other hand, if there’s been an element of working with the Liberal Party to damage Labor’s chances, that’s in a different category of action altogether. I expect the Labor administration to investigate this matter fully.”</p>
<p>The clip in the ad came from an interview that Ferguson, who is chairman of the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association advisory board, did with Keith Orchison, editor of the <a href="http://www.onpower.com.au/those-in-power/martin-ferguson-2015.html">On Power website</a>, which deals with energy issues.</p>
<p>Orchison, a former chief executive of two national energy associations, has since said that Ferguson “didn’t connive with the Liberal Party to provide the now notorious film clip”.</p>
<p>“Ferguson was actually in London on business when Premier Mike Baird’s office approached me for access to the film clip and I gave it.” Orchison said he regarded the material, which was on the On Power site, as in the public domain.</p>
<p>Ferguson these days would be considered closer to the Liberals than to Labor on a number of issues, including industrial relations.</p>
<p>But Ferguson insists he did not co-operate with the Liberal party or give it permission to use the clip. “Both sides lift what suits them” for election ads, he says.</p>
<p>The formal action against Ferguson – a member of the Victorian branch of the ALP – has come from the Victorian secretary of the Maritime Union of Australia (MUA), Kevin Bracken, who successfully moved a motion at the Victorian Trades Hall Council calling for Labor to expel him.</p>
<p>Bracken has a controversial past, claiming the September 11, 2001, attacks were a conspiracy, with elements of the then-Bush administration, military personnel and security services involved.</p>
<p>The move against Ferguson will be considered by the Victorian Labor Party’s disputes tribunal, from which there is an appeals process to a national appeals tribunal. He says he intends to fight the charges brought against him.</p>
<p>Ferguson’s tangled with the MUA before. Last year, he was the target of its Western Australian branch after he said the union’s wage claims and work practices had contributed to a budget blowout and delays in the West Australian Gorgon gas project.</p>
<p>MUA WA secretary Chris Cain described him as a “traitor to working-class people”. Ferguson was accused of breaching the ministerial code by taking a post with APPEA earlier than the code permitted. The WA ALP executive endorsed a MUA motion calling for his expulsion. This went to the ALP national executive, which took no further action.</p>
<p>While the use of the Ferguson clip in the campaign ad was a major embarrassment for NSW Labor, other high-profile ALP figures had made similar points. In November, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-28/keating-full-of-praise-for-nsw-liberal-premier/5925960">Paul Keating</a>, when appearing with Mike Baird, supported the premier’s stand on power privatisation saying “there are still some obscurantists in the Labor Party”.</p>
<p>Ferguson argues his comments are consistent with what he said in government. “The record will show the [Queensland] Bligh and [NSW] Iemma governments sought to privatise electricity assets and the Labor government in Canberra supported those governments.”</p>
<p>Iemma is one of the strong defenders of Ferguson in the present controversy, saying it would be vindictive and petty to expel him. “He was expressing an opinion that he has held for a decade or more,” the former premier said.</p>
<p>Although the feeling against Ferguson is strong in the NSW party, if the move against him succeeded it would feed into the narrative of the unions calling the tune in Labor, when the unions’ power in its structure is an issue for the party.</p>
<p>It would go against the notion of a pluralist party, highlight that the ALP is conflicted about privatisation, and fuel a perception of Labor infighting. None of that would be to Shorten’s advantage.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39600/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Bill Shorten should resist the witch-hunt against former ALP minister Martin Ferguson over his attacks on NSW Labor’s anti-privatisation campaign. The idea that the Labor Party should expel Ferguson…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/392422015-03-30T18:59:10Z2015-03-30T18:59:10ZLacking an agenda, the Abbott government’s time is running out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76416/original/image-20150330-25092-gdvdnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Abbott government is running out of time to try to come up with new ideas and refresh its reason for being.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The release of the <a href="http://bettertax.gov.au/publications/discussion-paper/">tax policy discussion paper</a> by Treasurer Joe Hockey more than 18 months into the life of the Abbott government offers important clues to the problems the Coalition has been suffering since it took office in September 2013.</p>
<p>When it comes to producing a comprehensive, far-reaching policy regime – a coherent vision for Australia’s society and economy and how to turn it into reality – the government is only getting started. Having spent the first half of its first term going in one direction, killing off Labor’s carbon and mining taxes and thoroughly mismanaging its attempts to hack into the budget deficit, it has stopped and is looking for another path.</p>
<p>It is now in search of an agenda.</p>
<p>The tax paper was initially set to be released before Christmas. But it was delayed for a variety of reasons, many of them political. Campbell Newman’s Liberal National government in Queensland was contemplating an early election, which eventuated in the bizarre and <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-on-the-brink-of-a-shock-election-win-in-queensland-36983">ultimately fatal</a> decision to run a <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-early-election-hinges-on-a-test-of-newmans-strength-35893">January campaign</a>. </p>
<p>Then there was the matter of the <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/PublicationsAndMedia/Publications/2015/2015-Intergenerational-Report">Intergenerational Report</a>, which by legislation was required to be released at the beginning of February. But it too was delayed, causing Hockey to technically <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-breaches-charter-of-budget-honesty-20150204-1367g7.html">breach</a> the Charter of Budget Honesty. Eventually it was released on March 5.</p>
<p>Clearly, there was a logjam of policy reports. Further delaying the public delivery of the tax paper was the fixed election date in New South Wales last Saturday. The federal government would not have done well to issue a document that even hinted at such proposals as an increase in the GST during an election campaign.</p>
<p>And so, finally, with the Baird government re-elected, the discussion paper, canvassing all elements of the taxation regime, emerged into the light on Monday. Unfortunately for the government and for the voting public, it is just a discussion paper, posing a series of questions about the tax system.</p>
<p>The clock is ticking.</p>
<p>The government’s plan is for there to be a “conversation” throughout 2015 before another paper puts together policy proposals that the Coalition can take to the election scheduled for 2016.</p>
<p>It looks orderly and well-considered, but is it? It’s not certain that the government will wait until next year to hold an election. Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his treasurer are in survivalist mode, fighting for their own political lives. A snap <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-18/double-dissolution-discussed-by-government-ministers-twice/6330510">double dissolution</a> later this year cannot be ruled out.</p>
<p>Three Senate crossbenchers have told upper house colleagues in recent weeks that they were advised by government members during negotiations on the university fee deregulation bill that an early election was a genuine possibility.</p>
<p>The government has not gone public with this talk, but the prospect of an election is a time-honoured method for threatened leaders to try to relieve pressure and frighten off challengers. This was what Julia Gillard did in January 2013, <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2013-julia-gillards-september-gamble-11860">announcing</a> an election date almost eight months’ hence to demonstrate how decisive and “different” she was (that is, not a conventional politician), and to stave off, yet again, Kevin Rudd’s push against her leadership.</p>
<p>A few pieces of recent good news, and the willingness of the mainstream media to frame them as big positives for Abbott, will do little to discourage the contemplation of going early. Last week’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-polling-volatility-continues-39305">Newspoll</a>, showing the government on 49% of the two-party-preferred vote, and the New South Wales election result, which can be portrayed as good for Abbott because it did not produce a Coalition defeat, assure Abbott of a few calmer weeks.</p>
<p>But the polls will resume after Easter, there is the task of putting together the 2015-16 budget and there remains the untidy matter of the <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/policy/tax/joe-hockeys-budget-backdown-20150204-136ebw">abandonment</a> of the government’s initial budget strategy.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76417/original/image-20150330-25057-1qf74ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76417/original/image-20150330-25057-1qf74ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76417/original/image-20150330-25057-1qf74ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76417/original/image-20150330-25057-1qf74ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76417/original/image-20150330-25057-1qf74ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1129&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76417/original/image-20150330-25057-1qf74ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1129&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76417/original/image-20150330-25057-1qf74ft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1129&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Joe Hockey faces an uphill task in putting together the government’s second budget.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is a remarkable situation. A government that was elected on a promise of a budget surplus in its first term has dropped that pledge and is now saying a surplus will happen <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-hockey-pledges-budget-surplus-as-soon-as-possible-20150324-1m6b30.html">“as soon as possible”</a>. Abbott, in trying to regain some sort of control over expectations of the government’s performance, <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/tony-abbott-loses-the-plot-on-debt-20150318-1m2906">declared</a> that a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 60% would be a pretty good result because that’s around the OECD average. This is after stumping the country for years excoriating Labor for a debt ratio that was much less.</p>
<p>The danger for the government is that as it ditches policies and rhetoric, it will come to be seen as an administration with no discernible purpose, no overarching reason for holding office save for being preferable to the other guys. It must be said that this worked in the past; it is what motivated the Coalition on its path to power in 2010-13. </p>
<p>The chief message from Abbott, sold convincingly to a majority of voters, was exactly that: Labor is a disaster and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/at-last-the-grownups-are-back-in-charge-20130908-2tdyu.html">we won’t be</a>.</p>
<p>But electoral politics demands more than that after the transition to power. It’s one thing to neglect to put out an expansive plan for the nation before taking office. But it’s quite another not to try to take the people with you in the early months after an election win, when it should be easier to come clean about your intentions with a suggestible and relieved public.</p>
<p>Three years is an almost impossibly short period in which to present policy, sell it and enact it, much less see some results. All people who have experience inside government will tell you that there is not a moment to waste in office and there are very few chances to retrieve a botched policy. </p>
<p>Having sought to <a href="https://theconversation.com/hockeys-first-budget-redefines-the-role-of-government-in-australia-26573">remake the role of government</a> in their first budget – and having lost the political argument attached to it, along with the practical battle to implement it – Abbott and Hockey are cutting it very fine as they try to come up with new ideas and refresh the government’s reason for being.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Carney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When it comes to producing a comprehensive, far-reaching policy regime – a coherent vision for Australia’s society and economy and how to turn it into reality – the government is only getting started.Shaun Carney, Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Social Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/394722015-03-29T00:03:47Z2015-03-29T00:03:47ZNSW Coalition wins a thumping victory despite a swing against it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76359/original/image-20150328-16083-11520vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mike Baird's Liberal-National Coalition is predicted to have 53 lower house seats after Saturday's NSW election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Nikki Short</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With 58% of the lower house vote counted at Saturday’s New South Wales state election, the ABC is currently <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/results/">projecting the Coalition</a> to have won 52 of the 93 lower house seats. Labor is expected to win 32 seats, the Greens four, and the Sydney and Lake Macquarie independents both held their seats. Three seats remain in doubt. The final prediction is Coalition 53, Labor 34.</p>
<p>If the current results are the final outcome, it would <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-17/2015-nsw-election-preview/5942892">represent a 16-seat</a> loss for the Coalition compared with the 2011 election result. Labor would gain 14 seats and the Greens three. Compared with the post-redistribution pendulum, Labor gains 16 seats, the Coalition loses 17 and the Greens gain two.</p>
<p>The current overall primary votes are 45.6% for the Coalition (down 5.5% from 2011), 34.2% for Labor (up 8.6%) and 10.3% for the Greens (steady). As more votes are counted, I expect the Coalition and Greens to both improve their positions slightly at Labor’s expense. It will take at least two weeks before we get a statewide two-party preferred (2PP) vote, but the <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/28/new-south-wales-election-live-2/">Poll Bludger</a> thinks the Coalition is currently winning the 2PP by 54.8-45.2, a 9.4% swing to Labor. </p>
<p>While Labor improved greatly on the 2011 wipeout result, this was still a thumping win for the Coalition.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/28/new-south-wales-election-live-2/">Poll Bludger</a>, minor party preferences split 33% to Labor, 19% to the Coalition and 48% exhausted. Labor thus made up 14 votes per 100 minor party votes, up from 3.5 in 2011. While this gain rate was better for Labor than in either the <a href="http://www.tallyroom.com.au/24812">2003 or 2007 elections</a>, it is much less than the gain rate at the recent Queensland election.</p>
<p>There were several seats where the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/results/electorates/">swing</a> to Labor was around 20%. However, many of these huge swings were wasted. For example, Myall Lakes, Clarence, Tweed and Upper Hunter were all retained by the Nationals owing to huge pre-election margins. Labor would have won Ballina and Lismore, but finished third in both seats, and its preferences will probably elect Greens.</p>
<p>The projected Greens wins in Ballina and Lismore are not quite certain. The electoral commission’s initial two candidate count in both seats is a Nationals vs Labor count, and it will now have to redo these counts as Nationals vs Greens. </p>
<p>On current primary votes, the Greens need a 9% gain on preferences to defeat the Nationals in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/guide/lism/">Lismore</a>. If many Labor votes exhaust, they could fall short. In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/guide/ball/">Ballina</a>, the Greens need only a 4% gain on preferences, which they should obtain.</p>
<p>For Labor, the most disappointing aspect of the election result is the seats with very low or even negative swings. Labor’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/guide/mona/">Steve Whan</a> tried to make a comeback in Monaro, after losing by just 2% in 2011, but only won a 0.1% swing. Oatley and East Hills were both retained by the Liberals with swings in their favour. </p>
<p>Labor leader Luke Foley won <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/guide/aubu/">Auburn</a> – but with a 1.4% swing to the Liberals.</p>
<p>While the Greens overall vote was steady, they easily retained Balmain and Newtown vs Labor, and appear to have won Ballina and Lismore from the Nationals. This was a very good night for the Greens.</p>
<p>We will not be able to judge the polls’ performance accurately until all votes have been counted. The current 11.4% primary vote gap between the major parties is in line with the final polls from ReachTEL and Galaxy, though this gap is likely to increase somewhat as more votes are counted.</p>
<p>Newspoll’s 10-point gap was too low, and the gaps in Ipsos (15 points), Lonergan (16) and Morgan (20) were far too high. Morgan must wish he had not rushed out a final poll, as his second last poll had a 13-point gap, which may be near the final outcome.</p>
<p>Individual seat polls from <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/opinion-poll-tips-csg-backlash-will-see-ballina-fall-to-labor-in-nsw-election-20150321-1m4js5.html">ReachTEL</a> in Ballina and Newtown, that were taken on the March 19, grossly underestimated the Greens performance. In Newtown, the poll had the Greens losing to Labor by 56.5-43.5, but the Greens <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/guide/newt/">currently lead by 61-39</a>. In Ballina, ReachTEL had the Greens 10% behind Labor on primary votes, but the Greens have beaten Labor by 5% for second position.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76360/original/image-20150328-16083-1khqrjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76360/original/image-20150328-16083-1khqrjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76360/original/image-20150328-16083-1khqrjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76360/original/image-20150328-16083-1khqrjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76360/original/image-20150328-16083-1khqrjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76360/original/image-20150328-16083-1khqrjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76360/original/image-20150328-16083-1khqrjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor leader Luke Foley won the lower house seat of Auburn – but with a swing toward the Liberals.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Jane Dempster</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Coalition strengthens upper house position</h2>
<p>The NSW upper house has 42 members, with half elected at each election by proportional representation. There is no group ticket voting system such as is used in the federal Senate. Instead, voters who just vote “1” above the line will have their votes expire within their chosen party. </p>
<p>Voters may give preferences to additional parties by numbering “2”, “3”, etc, above the line. A valid below the line vote requires at least 15 preferences.</p>
<p>The quota for election is 1/22 of the vote or 4.55%. However, because many votes exhaust, seats can be won on about half of that quota, so a little more than 2% can be enough to win a seat.</p>
<p>The 42 current members are 19 Coalition, 14 Labor, five Greens, two Christian Democrats and two Shooters and Fishers. The members elected in 2007 were up for election this year. In 2007, Labor won nine seats of the 21 up at that election, the Coalition eight, Greens two, Christians one and Shooters one.</p>
<p>On <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/results/lc/">current upper house results</a>, the Coalition has 9.5 quotas, Labor 6.9, the Greens 2.2, the Shooters 0.9, the Christians 0.6, and no-one else has more than 0.37 quotas. That means nine seats are filled on quota by the Coalition, six by Labor and two by the Greens, with four others to be filled on less than a quota. It is likely that these four seats will go to Labor, Shooters, Christians and Coalition. I do not think there is much chance of preferences altering this outcome.</p>
<p>Compared with 2007, that means the Coalition will gain two seats to win 10 of the 21 seats up at this election, while Labor loses two to have seven. The Greens, Shooters and Christians will be unchanged at two, one and one seat each respectively.</p>
<p>At the 2011 wipeout election, the result was Coalition 11, Labor five, Greens three, Shooters one and Christians one. Adding the provisional 2015 results gives a total 42-member upper house of Coalition 21 (up two), Labor 12 (down two), Greens five, Shooters two and Christians two. This means the Coalition will only need either the Shooters or Christians to pass legislation, rather than both.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39472/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Labor improved greatly on the 2011 wipeout result, this was still a thumping win for the Coalition.Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/394642015-03-28T13:09:10Z2015-03-28T13:09:10ZBold Baird’s win in NSW is good news for Abbott, but for how long?<p>Mike Baird has held power with a strong result for the NSW Coalition, in what has been overwhelmingly a victory for good and bold leadership. Despite their reluctance to support electricity privatisation, voters were much more convinced by Baird’s pitch than dissuaded by a Labor scare campaign that drastically overreached.</p>
<p>The outcome is a disappointment for Labor. On Saturday night’s figures, Labor had got a two-party preferred swing of more than 9%, much of which can be seen as a correction for the extraordinary 2011 rout of the ALP. According to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/results/">ABC analyst Antony Green</a>, Labor is on track to have 34 lower house seats in the new parliament, fewer that it had hoped. On Green’s figures this compares with the Coalition’s likely 53, with the Greens headed for four and two independents.</p>
<p>For Tony Abbott the result is, most immediately, a big relief. When Campbell Newman lost in Queensland earlier this year, the “Abbott factor” was seen as contributing. A bad result in NSW would have been a disaster for Abbott, but in his home state the prime minister has not held back Baird.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76344/original/image-20150328-16135-vq4qmp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76344/original/image-20150328-16135-vq4qmp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76344/original/image-20150328-16135-vq4qmp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76344/original/image-20150328-16135-vq4qmp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76344/original/image-20150328-16135-vq4qmp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76344/original/image-20150328-16135-vq4qmp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76344/original/image-20150328-16135-vq4qmp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76344/original/image-20150328-16135-vq4qmp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A NSW Labor post shared on social media in the last week of the campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NSW Labor/Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Abbott’s rebuilding effort – which has involved ditching unpopular measures, holding out carrots and making some changes of style – may have helped minimise the Abbott factor in NSW.</p>
<p>But equally or more likely, the positive “Baird factor” has overwhelmed any Abbott negatives.</p>
<p>While the result is good for Abbott, there are also sharp lessons and longer-term implications for him. Baird has been all the things as a premier that Abbott has failed to be as a prime minister.</p>
<p>Gladys Berejiklian, deputy leader of the NSW Liberals, said on Saturday night that “Mike Baird laid everything on the line”. Baird in his victory speech said that “we decided to be open with the people of New South Wales”.</p>
<p>Baird was rewarded by being considered trustworthy. Abbott was not open before the 2013 election and has paid a huge price.</p>
<p>Obviously Baird is also a top communicator, better than any other current Australian political leader, while Abbott has been a poor one, ever since he ceased being opposition leader.</p>
<p>So now that Baird has shown you can sell a hard agenda and win well, over the next few months the federal Liberals will be asking themselves if and how they can do the same.</p>
<p>Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop, who was at the Baird celebration (which saw no sign of Abbott), said that the take-out from the result was that “people are ready for reform as long as it’s explained to them, and that’s what Mike Baird did”. It was a pointed comment.</p>
<p>As time goes on, this result will actually put more of a spotlight on Abbott, who has only taken early baby steps in his bid to revive. Liberals will want to see that the prime minister can improve a great deal more.</p>
<p>Abbott’s problem is that once a leader has forfeited trust, it is difficult if not near impossible to get back.</p>
<p>The budget will be a major test of whether Abbott can make any progress on this. But it will be a long road beyond that if he is to make the federal Coalition competitive. His colleagues will reserve their judgements about his leadership future until they get more evidence from his performance.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, they will also be looking at whether Abbott improves his personal office, which is still criticised. </p>
<p>Baird paid tribute in his victory speech to NSW Liberal director Tony Nutt, who served Abbott in government’s early days and was a senior staffer to John Howard when he was prime minister. There is speculation Nutt will return to Abbott. He is certainly desperately needed in the Prime Minister’s Office.</p>
<p>The NSW result will put some pressure on Bill Shorten to be more positive, after the failure of Luke Foley’s highly negative campaign.</p>
<p>Shorten does need to build a more constructive profile, projecting some vision, especially since he talked of this as the year of ideas.</p>
<p>But it also has to be remembered that unlike Foley, Shorten has an opponent doing badly in the polls.</p>
<p>The federal opposition must start to emphasise its own credentials but, in practical terms, it’s a difficult balance. It doesn’t want to take too much attention off the government by making itself the issue this far out from the election. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop said the take out from the result was that “people are ready for reform as long as it’s explained to them, and that’s what Mike Baird did”. It was a pointed comment.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/394272015-03-27T21:38:50Z2015-03-27T21:38:50ZFinal NSW polls have Coalition set for easy win<p>The New South Wales election will be held today. Polls close at 6pm local time. All final polls give the Coalition at least a 10-point primary vote lead. The Coalition’s primary vote estimate in the major polls has either been too low or about right at the most recent major Federal and state elections. Given this history, I see no reason to doubt that the Coalition will win the NSW election. Preference flows simply cannot make up a double digit primary vote gap; this gap was only 3.8% at the Queensland election.</p>
<p>The table below presents the final polls. However, since the pollsters are using a variety of methods for their Two Party Preferred (2PP) estimates, I have reverted to using primary votes. Primary votes are reported in the format: Coalition primary-Labor primary-Greens primary. The “Change” column is the average primary vote swing between the major parties since the poll was last conducted. For example, if the Coalition gained 1% and Labor lost 2%, that is an average swing of 1.5% to the Coalition.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76320/original/image-20150327-16135-3nz8b7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76320/original/image-20150327-16135-3nz8b7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76320/original/image-20150327-16135-3nz8b7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76320/original/image-20150327-16135-3nz8b7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76320/original/image-20150327-16135-3nz8b7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76320/original/image-20150327-16135-3nz8b7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=163&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76320/original/image-20150327-16135-3nz8b7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=163&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76320/original/image-20150327-16135-3nz8b7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=163&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">NSW final polls.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The previous Newspoll was taken in late February, the previous ReachTEL three weeks ago, the previous Galaxy one week ago, and the previous Morgan last weekend. The Coalition has 10-12 point primary vote leads in the three established pollsters (Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL), but much bigger leads in new pollsters Ipsos, Lonergan and <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6151-sms-morgan-poll-new-south-wales-march-27-2015-201503270453?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morgan+Poll+20150327&utm_content=Morgan+Poll+20150327+CID_aa7f77e476fc5e9c6fbb1329cd1e2bcd&utm_source=Market%20Research%20Update&utm_term=Baird%20set%20for%20comfortable%20victory%20in%20tomorrows%20NSW%20Election%20as%20electors%20reject%20Foleys%20scare%20campaign">Morgan</a>. It is likely that the more established pollsters are correct.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-newsouthwales-poll-26march2015">ReachTEL</a>’s respondent allocated preferences are 54-46 to the Coalition, 2% better for Labor than what I believe would be achieved from 2011 flows. A table of how minor party voters will direct their preferences has 38% going to Labor, 16% to the Coalition and the rest exhaust. If this poll is correct, Labor will gain 22 votes per 100 minor party votes, up from 3.5 in 2011. This is only a little less than Labor’s gain rate in the recent Queensland election, which was probably in the high 20’s per 100 minor party votes.</p>
<p><a href="http://resources.news.com.au/files/2015/03/27/1227281/937840-150328poll.pdf">Newspoll</a> had a 2PP estimate of 55-45 to the Coalition by 2011 preferences, but only 52-48 by respondent allocation. More interesting was a Sydney vs rest of NSW breakdown, which shows a net 14% primary vote swing to Labor in the country, but only 4% in Sydney compared to the 2011 election. However, huge swings to Labor in the country may be wasted on very safe Coalition seats; there are more marginal seats in Sydney.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/27/reachtel-54-46-to-coalition-in-new-south-wales/">Poll Bludger’s final NSW BludgerTrack</a> has primary votes of 45.3% for the Coalition, 33.7% for Labor and 11.0% for the Greens. By 2011 preferences, this becomes 56.0-44.0 to the Coalition, reducing to 54.1-45.9 by respondent allocation. On the latter method, the Coalition is expected to win 53 of the 93 seats, to 37 for Labor. <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/new-south-wales-final-week.html">Kevin Bonham’s aggregates </a>are very similar.</p>
<p>In late February, polls had the Coalition ahead by about seven points on primary votes, but this has now blown out. Galaxy polling over the last two weeks has given the Coalition 8, 9 and now 11 point primary vote leads, up from 7 in late February.</p>
<p>The main reason for this blowout is Mike Baird’s enduring popularity. Some analysts expected Baird’s ratings to drop as the election drew closer, but instead they are still strong. As people have focused on the NSW election, rather than Federal politics, Baird’s popularity has helped the Coalition open up a big lead.</p>
<p>I think Labor’s desperate tactics have also contributed. While the campaign against electricity privatisation itself was fine, warning of Chinese interests leasing the electricity network seems like something Clive Palmer might do, and appears xenophobic. The problem is that when you are behind, you try to come up with a “game changer”, but often these “game changers” will backfire, making the position even worse.</p>
<h2>Notes on these polls</h2>
<ul>
<li><p>In <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/state-election-voters-punish-luke-foleys-folly/story-fnrskx7r-1227280444890">Galaxy</a>, Baird led Foley by 51-29 on how best to manage the state’s economy.</p></li>
<li><p>ReachTEL had Baird’s total good rating up 7% to 49%, and his total poor rating up 4% to 23%, for a very strong net approval of +26. Luke Foley’s ratings went in the other direction, with his total good rating steady at 23% and his total poor rating up 11% to 35%, for a net approval of -12. By a 72-28 margin, voters say the Coalition will win. By 49-29, they oppose the asset leasing plan. 13% now consider asset leasing the most important issue, up from 9%.</p></li>
<li><p>Newspoll had Baird’s satisfied rating down 2% to 57% and his dissatisfied rating up 3% to 29% for a net approval of +28. Foley’s satisfied rating was up 2% to 38% and his dissatisfied rating up 6% to 37% for a net approval of +1. Voting commitment is about the same as in 2003 and ‘07. 65% think the Coalition will win, and 20% say Labor will win.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39427/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The New South Wales election will be held today. Polls close at 6pm local time. All final polls give the Coalition at least a 10-point primary vote lead. The Coalition’s primary vote estimate in the major…Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393732015-03-27T01:38:11Z2015-03-27T01:38:11ZA science centre in Western Sydney will inspire more than just kids<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76095/original/image-20150326-30359-1ojhsyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Western Sydney needs a science centre such as Questacon to help engage young people with science, technology and engineering.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Questacon</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Greater Western Sydney (GWS) region is the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/3218.0%7E2011-12%7EMain+Features%7ENew+South+Wales?OpenDocument">fastest growing region in Sydney</a>. It has a population of <a href="http://www.parracity.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/115432/Greater_Western_Sydney_summary_statistics_November_2012_FINAL.pdf">more than two million people</a> and more than <a href="http://www.schools.nsw.edu.au/media/downloads/news/greatteaching/submissions/uni-western-sydney.pdf">240,000 businesses</a>.</p>
<p>It also has a large student population in both primary and secondary schools of over 300,000 students, and a <a href="http://www.uws.edu.au/">university</a> that is going from strength to strength in the areas of research and innovative blended teaching and learning, and up-to-date <a href="http://wsi.tafensw.edu.au/">TAFE Colleges</a>.</p>
<p>What it doesn’t have is a science centre, such as <a href="https://www.questacon.edu.au/">Questacon</a>: somewhere people – particularly young people – can go to engage with science. Building such a centre in Western Sydney would have tremendous benefits not only for students but also for the public awareness of science and Australia’s future prosperity.</p>
<h2>Falling behind</h2>
<p>The 2012 OECD Program for International Student Assessment (<a href="http://www.oecd.org/pisa/">PISA</a>) report <a href="http://www.oecd.org/pisa/keyfindings/pisa-2012-results.htm">assessed the competencies</a> of 15 year olds in reading, writing and science in 65 countries and economies. It placed the East Asian nations – China, Singapore and Hong Kong – at the top three spots, while Australia was ranked number 19. </p>
<p>Both Hong Kong and Singapore established science centres in the early 1970s. They are now reaping the benefits of their investment in involving youngsters at a very early age in science through a hands on science experience. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76192/original/image-20150327-8682-1f0mjqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76192/original/image-20150327-8682-1f0mjqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76192/original/image-20150327-8682-1f0mjqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76192/original/image-20150327-8682-1f0mjqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76192/original/image-20150327-8682-1f0mjqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76192/original/image-20150327-8682-1f0mjqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76192/original/image-20150327-8682-1f0mjqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76192/original/image-20150327-8682-1f0mjqy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Year 12 participation rates in mathematics, biology, chemistry and physics, 1992-2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Office of the Chief Scientist</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If Western Sydney wishes to compete in the international science and technology market, it needs to urgently establish a hands on science centre to entice more young people into taking up careers in science and engineering, which are the drivers of economic growth. Otherwise it will remain in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/aspiring-to-something-magnificent-with-science-in-australia-39248">backwaters of the digital age</a> that is engulfing world economies. </p>
<p>Australia’s Chief Scientist, Ian Chubb, has already noted that there has been a <a href="http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/Office-of-the-Chief-Scientist-MES-Report-8-May-2012.pdf">serious decline</a> in the number of Year 12 students doing biology, physics, chemistry and mathematics.</p>
<p>In fact, in the period 1992 to 2010, the proportion of year 12 students in biology fell from 35% to 24%. In physics it fell from 21% to 14%, and chemistry from 24% to 16%. </p>
<p>This is serious for the nation, but more so for a Western Sydney that wants to compete in the international science and engineering markets. And according to Chubb, if we fail to act, “a decline in our productivity growth relative to our region’s leading economies would put us at a growing disadvantage in maintaining our national wealth and security”. </p>
<h2>Getting ahead</h2>
<p>The closest up-to-date hands-on science centre for teachers, students and the public to visit is in <a href="https://www.questacon.edu.au/">Canberra</a>. This is about four hours away from Western Sydney. Added to this is the high cost of visiting this centre. </p>
<p>As a consequence a very large fraction of the schools in Western Sydney do not use this facility to expose their students to a hands-on enquiry based science experience, which is a teaching and learning strategy strongly advocated by the <a href="https://www.science.org.au/science-by-doing">Australian Academy of Science</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/primary-school-science-education-is-there-a-winning-formula-5449">eminent science educators</a>. </p>
<p>A science centre in Western Sydney will be of immense value to science teachers in exposing their students to the latest developments in science and engineering, which is doubling every 18 months according to the <a href="https://www.td.org/">American Society of Training and Documentation</a>. </p>
<p>Science teachers will also be able to use specialised scientific equipment which is normally not available in their schools. It will also assist them in explaining difficult scientific concepts in a hands-on environment. </p>
<p>Science programs run by the science centre for teachers will keep them up-to-date with the latest developments in science. If attendance at other Australian cultural institutions is anything to go by, a science centre could attract over 180,000 visitors per year.</p>
<p>The University of Western Sydney is one of largest universities in Australia and is one of the <a href="http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/2014/one-hundred-under-fifty/institution/university-of-western-sydney">top 100</a> newly emerging universities in the world. </p>
<p>It is well placed to provide training for the scientific and technical manpower for the industries in the Western Sydney region. It can do this in a more efficient and productive way by getting more young people engaged in science and engineering activities when they are young and their minds are most plastic to absorb the new concepts of science and engineering.</p>
<p>With the location of <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbott-confirms-badgerys-creek-for-sydneys-second-airport-25661">Badgery’s Creek Airport</a> in Western Sydney, this becomes even more important for the economic growth of the region. The science centre will become a crucial institution for attracting young people to consider careers in science and engineering which will support the new high-tech industries that will be built in and around the airport. </p>
<p>It will also help to redress the shortage of skilled scientists, technicians and engineers which has been affecting the region into growing into the technological powerhouse for NSW. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76097/original/image-20150326-30367-13h06yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76097/original/image-20150326-30367-13h06yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76097/original/image-20150326-30367-13h06yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76097/original/image-20150326-30367-13h06yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76097/original/image-20150326-30367-13h06yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76097/original/image-20150326-30367-13h06yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76097/original/image-20150326-30367-13h06yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76097/original/image-20150326-30367-13h06yw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A science centre can not only wow, but also teach.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Questacon</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Embracing STEM</h2>
<p>The establishment cost of a science centre is estimated to be between <a href="https://www.rawlhouse.com/australian-construction-handbook.php">A$15 million and A$20 million</a>, depending on the design, exhibits space and architectural layout of the building. </p>
<p>This is a modest sum when one considers that the NSW government has been subsiding the city’s cultural institutions, such as the Power House Museum, Art Gallery of NSW, the Australian Museum and the Historic Houses Trust, to the tune of several million dollars for the last ten years. It spent over A$80 million in the Financial Year 2012-2013, excluding the capital works grants that the government has been providing these institutions. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.parracity.nsw.gov.au/your_council/news/media/2015/february_2015/lord_mayor_welcomes_visionary_relocation_of_powerhouse_museum_to_parramatta2">relocation of the Powerhouse Museum</a> to Western Sydney is not going to solve the problem of attracting young people to embrace the new technologies that are coming online at an exponential rate. By the time the relocation of the museum is completed it is estimated that it will cost the NSW taxpayer over A$60 million. </p>
<p>This money could be much more wisely spent on building a hands-on science centre for the youth and citizens of Western Sydney. A science centre by definition is a hands-on enquiry based institution which provides interactive exhibits that illustrate the concepts, principles and applications of science and engineering which are focused on the latest advances in science and engineering. The Powerhouse Museum is a great institution which serves its purpose of showcasing nostalgic 19th century technology and the applied arts. </p>
<p>The benefits a science centre will provide for Western Sydney are manifold: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>a highly educational hands-on science experience for primary and secondary school students, including Indigenous youth</p></li>
<li><p>an innovative and up-to-date resource for science teachers</p></li>
<li><p>research-led programs on the latest developments in science, medicine and engineering through refresher courses for teachers</p></li>
<li><p>information on the latest developments in science, engineering and medicine to the public so as to enable them to participate actively in science policy issues, such as climate change, sustainable energy, etc</p></li>
<li><p>a venue for industry to showcase their new inventions and products and promote high-tech industry to locate in Western Sydney and</p></li>
<li><p>an exciting and innovative attraction for tourists visiting Western Sydney. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The leaders and citizens of Western Sydney need to grasp the idea of a hands-on science centre if they wish not only to compete with the East Asian nations in the coming years but also give the young people in schools today the scientific and technological expertise to compete in the digital age which is raising ahead at an exponential rate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39373/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ragbir Bhathal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A science centre in Western Sydney would help young people engage with science and promote STEM in Sydney’s fastest growing region.Ragbir Bhathal, Lecturer in physics, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393642015-03-27T00:17:20Z2015-03-27T00:17:20ZPlaying the China card may win votes, but it’s bad for Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76122/original/image-20150326-8706-1ud34eb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A still from a NSW election ad, run on television and online, which says "selling the electricity network is wrong; selling it to another country is just not on".</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CFMEU Mining/YouTube</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the final days of the New South Wales election campaign, Labor and the unions have decided to play the China card. Kudos to Fairfax journalist Joe Aston: <a href="http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/nsw-labor-ready-for-china-scare-on-mike-bairds-poles-and-wires-20150223-13m2oa">he predicted</a> this more than a month ago, noting that with two potential Chinese bidders for NSW power assets, there were “two juicy avenues for a foreign investment scare campaign”.</p>
<p>The issue of whether foreign investors – and particularly state-owned Chinese interests – should be allowed to bid for privatised power assets has been bubbling along throughout this election campaign. </p>
<p>But things have become <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/paranoid-labor-electricity-ads-branded-as-racist-and-scaring-voters-about-chinese-investment/story-fnrskx7r-1227278812910">more heated</a> in these last few days. Unfortunately, it has happened against a recent backdrop of state and federal politicians from both major parties pandering to populist prejudices against Chinese investors, on everything from high-end real estate to “buying up” our farms.</p>
<p>Doing that ignores the facts, including that according to our very own Australian Bureau of Statistics, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5352.02013?OpenDocument">Australia has invested nearly as much in China</a> as China has invested in Australia. (You can download the ABS tables <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5352.02013?OpenDocument">here</a>: Table 2 shows the level of Chinese investment in Australia, which was A$31.9 billion at the end of 2013, while Table 5 shows Australian investment in China had reached A$29.6 billion in the same period.)</p>
<p>And for all the headlines that it attracts, the Chinese share of the total stock of foreign investment in Australia was a minuscule 1.3% at the end of 2013, far behind other countries including the United States, United Kingdom, Japan and Singapore.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76123/original/image-20150326-8716-ksizbh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76123/original/image-20150326-8716-ksizbh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76123/original/image-20150326-8716-ksizbh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76123/original/image-20150326-8716-ksizbh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76123/original/image-20150326-8716-ksizbh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=339&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76123/original/image-20150326-8716-ksizbh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76123/original/image-20150326-8716-ksizbh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76123/original/image-20150326-8716-ksizbh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The five top countries investing in Australia, and their percentage share of the total level of foreign investment here, for the year ended 31 December 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australian Bureau of Statistics 5352.0 - International Investment Position, Australia: Supplementary Statistics, 2013</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>“Don’t go China’s way”</h2>
<p>On Thursday, the second last full day of the NSW campaign, Premier Mike Baird was urged by voters across Sydney – first a market vegetable seller, then <a href="http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/03/26/08/12/baird-s-early-bird-sydney-s-markets-visit#Ey2M1LtW1lyWMvjl.99">a woman at the Royal Easter Show</a> – not “to go China’s way”.</p>
<p>Those voters were responding to Baird’s plan to privatise state-owned power networks, which may attract interest from foreign bidders, including – but not only – from <a href="http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/1738455/nsw-power-assets-may-lure-hong-kong-and-mainland-chinese-bidders">mainland China and Hong Kong</a>.</p>
<p>In response, Labor and a union representing mining and energy workers have been ramping up their warnings against the risks of foreign ownership, such as this ad from NSW Labor, featuring a front page story about Hong Kong billionaire <a href="http://www.forbes.com/profile/li-ka-shing/">Li Ka-shing</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7lKeiHKvCP4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NSW Labor.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the debate about Chinese ownership has stepped up a notch in this final week in response to this Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union television and online ad.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4VmnNqu4xRE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">CFMEU Mining.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The ad ends with the line: “Selling the electricity network is wrong; selling it to another country is just not on.”</p>
<p>The ads have been <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nsw-election-2015-labor-figures-disown-alps-disgraceful-campaign/story-fnsgbndb-1227280427024">widely criticised</a> for “dog-whistling”. Race discrimination commissioner Tim Soutphommasane – who has previously worked for Labor governments under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and NSW Premier Bob Carr – <a href="https://twitter.com/timsout/status/580521093397651456">tweeted</a> his disappointment.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"580521093397651456"}"></div></p>
<p>But when asked <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/nsw-labor-leader-luke-foley/6346116">on Radio National</a> about whether his union supporters were resorting to “dog-whistling”, Labor leader Luke Foley said it was “entirely legitimate for there to be scrutiny of what Mr Baird and his coalition parties are up to with respect to the sale of the state’s electricity network”.</p>
<h2>Screening for security risks</h2>
<p>As a last-ditch ploy to win some votes on Saturday, it’s not hard to see why the opposition is trying this line of attack. The <a href="http://www.lowyinstitute.org/files/2014_lowy_institute_poll.pdf">Lowy Poll</a> has been saying for years that a majority of Australians think the government is “allowing too much investment from China”.</p>
<p>But many of the dark warnings about the risk posed by State Grid don’t stand up to scrutiny. </p>
<p>For instance, this week the Labor leader <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/no-asio-risk-for-nsw-poles-and-wires-20150325-1m7d5r">said</a> “perhaps ASIO might want to be asked their views” about a State Grid bid for the NSW networks. </p>
<p>Yet as Foley presumably knows, as a state-owned company, State Grid cannot invest a single dollar in Australia without first being scrutinised and approved – with conditions attached where appropriate - by the Foreign Investment Review Board (<a href="http://www.firb.gov.au/">FIRB</a>). The FIRB approval <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/no-asio-risk-for-nsw-poles-and-wires-20150325-1m7d5r">process</a> involves checks with government agencies including ASIO.</p>
<p>And as the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nsw-election-2015-labor-figures-disown-alps-disgraceful-campaign/story-fnsgbndb-1227280427024">Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood has noted</a>, there has been Chinese, Hong Kong Chinese and Singaporean Chinese investment in Australia’s power industry for almost 20 years – State Grid <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/no-asio-risk-for-nsw-poles-and-wires-20150325-1m7d5r">among them</a>.</p>
<p>However, what’s less easily dismissed is that this latest political campaign is not an isolated event. Instead, it’s part of a wider trend, where both sides of politics have been once again been tapping into deep-rooted fears of China for political gain. </p>
<h2>Sending mixed messages to China</h2>
<p>The federal government’s recent crackdown on <a href="http://jbh.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/008-2015/">foreign investment in the real estate</a> sector has been widely seen as singling out <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/foreign-investment-crackdown-chinese-billionaire-hui-ka-yans-purchase-of-point-piper-mansion-is-illegal/story-fni0cx12-1227247018678">Chinese investors</a>, with some even calling it “<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/firb-chinese-real-estate-buyer-crackdown-called-racist-as-ray-white-urges-calm-20150325-1m7k2r.html">racist</a>”.</p>
<p>And it was in no small part a response to growing Chinese interest in Australia’s agricultural sector that <a href="http://jbh.ministers.treasury.gov.au/media-release/005-2015/">since the start of this month</a>, the FIRB screening threshold for foreign purchases of rural land was slashed from A$252 million to A$15 million. The government also plans to reduce the threshold for foreign investment in agribusinesses from A$252 million <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/%7E/media/Treasury/Consultations%20and%20Reviews/Consultations/2015/Strengthening%20Australias%20foreign%20investment%20framework/Key%20Documents/RTF/Australias%20foreign%20investment%20framework.ashx">to A$55 million</a>. </p>
<p>Australia is sending very mixed messages to potential investors – because it’s one set of rules for some, and another for others.</p>
<p>These tighter new foreign investment rules apply to investors from countries that have recently signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with Australia, such as Japan, Korea and China. But <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.au/ConsultationsandReviews/Consultations/2015/Strengthening-Australias-foreign-investment-framework">they don’t apply</a> to countries with older FTAs such as the US, New Zealand and Chile. Investors from the latter countries only need to seek approval if their purchases of Australian rural land or agribusinesses exceed A$1.09 billion. That’s 73 times the threshold facing Chinese investors for rural land and 20 times that for agribusinesses. </p>
<p>Here are some messages that Australian politicians of all stripes should be delivering to a wary public. </p>
<p>Chinese investors can’t buy any assets that Australians don’t want to sell. </p>
<p>But if Australians do want to sell, then the benefits of having Chinese bidders is overwhelming. In the case of the NSW electricity grid, if you arbitrarily exclude some buyers, you risk getting a lower price for these taxpayer-owned assets. </p>
<p>Australia has a strong regulatory framework. That goes beyond the Foreign Investment Review Board; we also have tax laws, labour laws and environmental laws that apply to domestic and foreign firms alike. </p>
<p>China brings more dollars and more jobs to the Australian economy than any other country. </p>
<p>And as noted earlier, while Chinese investment is growing, it has a long way to go to catch up with other nations such as the US.</p>
<p>Earlier this week, the National Australia Bank and the Australia-China Business Council released <a href="http://acbc.com.au/admin/images/uploads/Copy2ACTradeReport_Synopsis_WEB_v1.pdf">research</a> showing that in 2011, direct trade with China contributed 5.5% of Australia’s Gross Domestic Product. Since then, trade with China has jumped a further 25%. </p>
<p>China currently buys more than double the value of our goods and services than does our second largest customer, Japan.</p>
<p>China also <a href="http://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/resources/trade-statistics/Pages/trade-time-series-data.aspx">buys A$55 billion more</a> than we buy from them.</p>
<p>Polling just released by the Australia-China Relations Institute <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/23%20March%202015PRESSRELEASEZOGBY.pdf">shows</a> that Chinese business leaders still regard Australia extremely highly as a country in which to invest. We would be wise not to take that for granted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39364/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Laurenceson is the Deputy Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute. Research by the Australia-China Relations Institute is cited in this article. </span></em></p>Labor and the unions have decided to play the China card in the NSW election. Such scare campaigns ignore the facts, including that Australia has invested almost as much in China as China has here.James Laurenceson, Deputy Director and Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI), University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/380342015-03-26T19:34:16Z2015-03-26T19:34:16ZNSW voters set to back Baird, but upper house is too close to call<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76044/original/image-20150325-12305-yjq95e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">New South Wales Premier Mike Baird looks likely to keep enjoying the view from the top of the state after the March 28 poll.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/mikebairdMP/photos/pcb.852868001508109/852855004842742/?type=1&theater">Mike Baird/Facebook</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With just one full day of campaigning left in the New South Wales election, the result is already clear. Mike Baird’s Liberal and National government will be re-elected, though with a reduced number of Coalition members returning to the treasury benches.</p>
<p>Had there not been shock results in Queensland and Victoria, where first-term governments fell in narrow races, this completely run-of-the-mill result in NSW would be filed unnoticed among the tradition of Australian voters giving new governments the benefit of the doubt. </p>
<p>For the jaded observer, wondering if all the election sound and fury has signified anything, the evidence is that little has really changed over the course of the campaign. Monday’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/nsw-election-liberals-mike-baird-beats-labors-luke-foley-polls/6339672">Fairfax/Ipsos two-party preferred poll</a> showing the Liberal Nationals ahead on 54% of support to Labor’s 46% is unchanged from <a href="http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/1112-mar-2015/">Galaxy polling</a> in January.</p>
<p>Given so many journalists put on their party frocks to dance at this ball, the parties could have at least been a bit more creative in their campaigning.</p>
<p>So many of the protagonists have been pictured in grainy black and white images, complete with menacing music, that NSW politics has looked like a 1950s noir film.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dfJ4oBEdFKw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NSW Labor.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On some of its “<a href="http://www.liberalchoiceshurt.com.au/">Liberal choices hurt</a>” billboards, Labor has juxtaposed boyband-fresh Premier Mike Baird against grim, Fagin-like images of Prime Minister Tony Abbott. In other ads, like this one, Baird is pictured alongside Abbott, with the question for voters: “What do we really know about NSW Premier Mike Baird?”</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cl5saDUdwqQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NSW Labor.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, the Liberals have played up the fact that Luke Foley became leader of the Labor Party only at the start of this year by attacking him as an “<a href="http://www.RiskyFoley.org.au">L-plater</a>” – a line straight out of the federal Liberals’ 2004 campaign ads against Mark Latham.</p>
<p>To the NSW Liberals’ credit, they have at least shown a little more creativity in how they have used the L-plate graphic: not in the L for Labor, nor the L for Luke, but in the middle of Foley. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rCzJwQXoXbg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal Party NSW.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-M6GpuUTJ0E?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal Party, 2004.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘The Abbott effect’ hasn’t all gone one way</h2>
<p>Contrary to most expectations, <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-abbott-invisible-in-nsw-campaign-will-prove-difficult-37347">including my own</a>, the Liberals have done a pretty good job of keeping the prime minister away from the campaign. </p>
<p>Unable to exclude the New South Welshman completely from his home state, when Abbott has not been kept busy <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/13/tony-abbott-eats-raw-onion">eating onions in Tasmania</a> or <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/australias-pm-apologizes-for-goebbels-comparison/">crow in Parliament</a>, the NSW branch has included him in events related to “signature” Abbott policies. For instance, the prime minister was there for the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/tony-abbott-and-mike-baird-turn-first-sods-for--westconnex-20150308-13y859.html">turning of the first sod</a> of the WestConnex road project, which the federal government has backed via both the Roads of the 21st Century and Asset Recycling initiatives.</p>
<p>He was also at the NSW Liberals’ official launch last Sunday, where Baird made a point of saying: “What a pleasure it is to stand here in front of a friend of mine, the prime minister, Tony Abbott.” </p>
<p>As all the news reports noted afterwards, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nsw-election-mike-baird-dodges-friendly-fire/story-fnsgbndb-1227273713650">Abbott left the talking to Baird</a>.</p>
<p>The prime minister has played some part in this campaign, with higher education reforms and the looming federal budget keeping national issues in voters’ minds. </p>
<p>A month ago, The Sydney Morning Herald’s <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/baird-effect-v-abbott-effect-a-precarious-balance-20150227-13r1nc.html">Peter Hartcher warned</a> that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Abbott effect imposes an average penalty of 3% across state seats held by the junior coalition partner, the Nationals, and 7% across Liberal seats, according to well-placed sources.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As it has turned out, it has not all been one-way traffic. Abbott’s continued visibility on the national stage has also helped highlight Baird’s positives.</p>
<p>When Baird replaced Barry O'Farrell as the state leader just under a year ago, the Liberals played up Baird’s close ties to the prime minister: not only as a <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/04/17/christian-surfer-next-nsw-premier">surfing buddy of Abbott’s</a>, but as a fellow Christian with an attractive family, who also represents a north-shore Sydney electorate.</p>
<p>However, Baird in election mode is the anti-Abbott: relaxed where the other is wooden; articulate, not faltering; friendly, not threatening.</p>
<p>As the ABC’s Vote Compass has shown, Baird is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-26/antony-green-vote-compass-nsw-analysis-mike-baird-popularity/6348658">extraordinarily popular</a> for a state leader. He has a personal approval rating of <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mike-bairds-popularity-trumping-electricity-sale-fears-20150322-1m4xi1.html">60%</a>. Even the worst black-and-white attack ad image just makes the man look more chiselled. </p>
<h2>What the privatisation debate revealed</h2>
<p>Policy-wise, the election has been interesting in highlighting key differences: though not so much differences between the two major parties, as between Australian voters and the political elite. The most obvious example of this has been the issue of privatisation.</p>
<p>Stripped of the capacity to raise revenue, state governments have had to use asset sales to fund new infrastructure and, at times, recurrent expenditure. This is a basic reality of Australian federalism that structurally pushes parties in government towards neo-liberal policies. </p>
<p>From the outset, Baird has been keen to establish an electoral mandate for “poles and wires” privatisation, stating there was <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/bairds-doordie-infrastructure-plan-there-is-no-plan-b-20150227-13r2wz.html">“no Plan B”</a> to fund his A$20 billion of election commitments. </p>
<p>While Labor has had privatisation at the core of its campaign, it has been somewhat disingenuous. The ALP has long been an advocate of <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/03/12/is-privatisation-next-in-labors-tattered-playbook/?wpmp_switcher=mobile">privatising various state-owned assets</a>, not only in NSW but nationally. </p>
<p>Its conversion to the anti-privatisation cause has clearly been one of electoral necessity: giving it an issue to beat up the government on, while also attracting vital union members and funds. </p>
<p>Labor has prided itself on the success of its <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/rules-for-radicals-comes-to-carrum">“community organising” campaigns</a>, a la <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-10897082">Obama</a>, in delivering recent electoral gains in <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/victorian-state-election-how-labor-and-the-unions-blew-up-the-coalition-20141130-11x325.html">Victoria</a> and Queensland.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76063/original/image-20150326-12309-3201wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76063/original/image-20150326-12309-3201wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76063/original/image-20150326-12309-3201wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76063/original/image-20150326-12309-3201wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76063/original/image-20150326-12309-3201wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76063/original/image-20150326-12309-3201wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76063/original/image-20150326-12309-3201wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/76063/original/image-20150326-12309-3201wy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.unionsnsw.org.au/knocking4change">Unions NSW</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/26/nsw-election-2015-doors-open-for-campaigners-who-dont-mention-politics">union-led volunteer campaign</a> has covered impressive territory: reportedly doorknocking more than 27,000 homes across the state (<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/26/nsw-election-winner-seems-clear-fear-anxiety-nerves-take-hold">The Guardian says</a> the residents were home about half the time); putting up <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NSWPowerSellOff">fluorescent banners</a> along main streets and highways; and making <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/26/nsw-election-winner-seems-clear-fear-anxiety-nerves-take-hold">3,500 phone calls</a> in the past two weeks.</p>
<p>But Labor’s stance on privatisation left it vulnerable on another key policy front, which voters in Sydney are particularly concerned about.</p>
<p>On transport, Labor split in opposite directions: on one hand, running against major road infrastructure in the inner west of Sydney; on the other, releasing a pro-Parramatta Road expansion policy for western Sydney seats. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/westconnex-boss-tony-shepherd-says-labors-plan-would-create-more-innerwest-congestion-20150220-13k0ab.html">Trimming WestConnex’s tunnel and exit into St Peters</a> has been at the heart of this compromise. But it was telling that the ALP released its modest transport policy in the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-state-election-2015-alp-reveals-modest-infrastructure-plan-20150219-13j13e.html">first week of the campaign</a>, and Foley has largely run <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/remove-mike-baird-and-you-remove-tony-abbott-luke-foley-tells-the-faithful-20150322-1m4wie.html">quiet on transport</a> since.</p>
<h2>Minor parties in the major battle ahead</h2>
<p>The electorate <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-26/antony-green-vote-compass-nsw-analysis-mike-baird-popularity/6348658">loathes privatisation</a>, providing minor parties across the state with some traction and a chance to differentiate themselves from Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals in this campaign.</p>
<p>In inner Sydney, the Greens have worked the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-drivers-are-likely-to-use-westconnex-than-predicted-38286">WestConnex</a> angle hard in an attempt to win the newly established progressive seat of Newtown – though polls suggest <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/22/reachtel-labor-leads-in-ballina-newtown-and-strathfield/">a Labor win</a> there. The Greens have also campaigned on the issue of cruise ship pollution in an attempt to retain Balmain, in an <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/10/alan-jones-backs-balmain-residents-battle-against-cruise-ship-pollution">odd alliance with broadcaster Alan Jones</a>. That’s an issue neither of the major parties has clean hands on. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Greens’ campaigns in regional NSW – particularly their push for a <a href="http://nsw.greens.org.au/policies/nsw/coal-and-coal-seam-gas">ban on coal seam gas</a> – could deliver more seats in the upper house. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"580878138348941312"}"></div></p>
<p>The battle for the upper house is really the one to watch. As <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-privatisation-could-hinge-on-a-single-upper-house-vote-38297">this Conversation article</a> covers in more detail, the Baird government’s post-election plans including privatisation could hinge on a single upper house vote.</p>
<p>The new No Land Tax Party has two advantages in its favour: it won the first position on the Legislative Council ballot paper, and it has the ability to raise considerable funds from supporters in the commercial real estate industry.</p>
<p>Having been frustrated by the Shooters and Fishers party in the last parliamentary term over disputes about the NSW Game Council and hunting in parks, the Liberal Nationals are hoping for a strong enough vote in the upper house so they need only negotiate with the Christian Democrats. Polling indicates this will be extremely close. </p>
<p>As preferences will be very important, the unusual way voters have preferenced in recent state elections makes our ability to predict the outcome even <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/polls-and-preferences-the-new-challenge-for-election-watchers">less reliable than in the past</a>.</p>
<p>On election night, all eyes will be on the Legislative Council. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-privatisation-could-hinge-on-a-single-upper-house-vote-38297">21 seats</a> up for grabs there will – almost certainly – determine if likeable Mike Baird can act on his mandate for privatisation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38034/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter John Chen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With just a day of campaigning left in the New South Wales election, the result is already clear. Mike Baird’s government will be re-elected – but the battle for 21 upper house seats will be crucial.Peter John Chen, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393902015-03-26T19:33:59Z2015-03-26T19:33:59ZGrattan on Friday: Howard and Baird offer lessons in the art of persuasion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76103/original/image-20150326-8719-x04pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If Tony Abbott had followed the John Howard prescription from the start he'd be much better off today.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Saturday’s New South Wales election will be seen as a major test of whether a popular leader can sell the public a much-disliked economic reform policy.</p>
<p>On the polls – and I stress that qualification – Premier Mike Baird is on track to win, with the Coalition’s position improving in recent days. Assuming that happens, judgements will then be based on the size of the victory, given the inevitable anti-government swing that will occur.</p>
<p>A good, or solid, win for Baird would inject a degree of predictability back into the political system. Players and observers are always somewhat discombobulated by a leader losing the unlosable election, as Campbell Newman did.</p>
<p>It would show that voters will buy robust reform, in this case privatisation, if the case is properly made by a credible advocate.</p>
<p>The lessons about leadership would be up there in lights. On the one hand is Baird, regarded by voters as trustworthy and persuasive. On the other are Newman, seen as the opposite, and Tony Abbott, struggling in the polls and personally unpopular.</p>
<p>A comfortable Baird victory would assist Abbott in the short term – the “Abbott factor” hadn’t been fatal. But in the longer view, it would also reinforce how vital it is to have an acceptable leader. And that mightn’t be so helpful to Abbott.</p>
<p>John Howard on Thursday gave an address titled “Advice to the leaders of tomorrow” to a University of Canberra conference. If Abbott had followed the Howard prescription from the get go he’d be much better off today.</p>
<p>“The most important thing about leadership is to believe in something,” Howard said, and then bring to the battle of ideas “the capacity to persuade. Persuasion is far more important in politics as a skill than anything else.”</p>
<p>Howard also stressed “the relationship between the leader and the immediately led”. The leader’s relationship with “the general constituency to which he or she is appealing is important, but what is super important is the relationship between the leader and the immediately led. Because it is impossible to transmit your ideas and … articulate your goals effectively without having the assistance of other people.</p>
<p>"You cannot as a prime minister take your cabinet ministers or your parliamentary party for granted. A prime minister in our system is merely a first among equals,” Howard said.</p>
<p>“The people immediately around you have got to be involved in the decision-making process. This idea that command and direction is what leadership is all about is substantially false,” although Howard conceded that it “works on occasions”.</p>
<p>“Prime ministers who run their cabinet by telling the members of their cabinet via the newspapers or on the morning of the cabinet meeting what the decision is going to be get into a lot of trouble.”</p>
<p>Asked what a leader under severe pressure should do, Howard said “apply the checklist”.</p>
<p>First: “Is the public and the party sufficiently clear as to what you stand for?” Second: “Is your relationship with the people you immediately lead in good order?” Third: “Have you got the big things right?” Included in this last point is Howard’s familiar argument that for reform to be successfully sold it must be seen as fair.</p>
<p>It’s instructive to look at Abbott’s present attempt to revive his leadership against this checklist.</p>
<p>The government has always had trouble with its messaging and, as Abbott tries to accommodate public opinion, this becomes particularly complicated, especially in relation to the budget task.</p>
<p>The old “budget emergency” message has given way to a new one, saying solid progress has been made on the fiscal front, though there’s more to do. Abbott routinely tries to deal with this message-pivot by referring to his experience as a fireman. “The instant the fire brigade turns up, the emergency starts to ease,” he said again on Thursday.</p>
<p>Let’s leave aside the cheap shot that despite the brigade’s arrival, houses often still burn down. Poor communications, different emphases by various government members, and policy backflips have meant a confused, sometimes contradictory, narrative.</p>
<p>What about Abbott’s relations with his followers? He has been recently making an effort to consult the backbenchers, who in turn are giving him time while reserving judgement.</p>
<p>As for relations with ministers: clearly the government is fractured at its highest level. Malcolm Turnbull waits, knowing this term is almost certainly his last chance to achieve the prime ministership. The tension between Abbott (and his office) and deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop, another potential alternative, has been on display for months. Team Abbott is the facade behind which lurks a good deal of distrust, competition and frustration.</p>
<p>Finally, on the check point about the “big calls”, the government has got these wrong in the past, with the overreach and unfairness of the 2014 budget, which makes getting right the subsequent calls all the harder. If Abbott is to be believed the May budget will have few “big calls” – rather, a series of small ones. As for the broader calls ahead – on tax reform, federalism – it’s anybody’s guess where they will land.</p>
<p>Having said all that, Labor recognises that Abbott’s new style is helping him. Policy somersaults, populism and dog whistling (such as the attack on Human Rights Commission president Gillian Triggs) are regarded as having some modest pay-off. And voters are also conflicted: they don’t like Abbott but they’d prefer to do the execution themselves.</p>
<p>Any serious revival by Abbott would be double-edged for Labor. It would put more pressure on Bill Shorten. But it would also make harder Abbott’s replacement by Turnbull or Bishop. Labor’s opponent of choice is Abbott.</p>
<p>In Howard’s view, a leader’s situation comes down to a fundamental point. “In the end, politics is inexorably driven by the laws of arithmetic and if it’s self-evident that a change of leadership is going to dramatically improve a party’s polling position, they will do it.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39390/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Saturday’s New South Wales election will be seen as a major test of whether a popular leader can sell the public a much-disliked economic reform policy.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/385332015-03-25T23:10:18Z2015-03-25T23:10:18ZMulticultural mayhem lurks in the shadows of the NSW election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75789/original/image-20150324-17699-10i4ics.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1325%2C649%2C3058%2C2126&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Premier Mike Baird and Communities Minister Victor Dominello have vigorously pursued their vision for peak body Multicultural NSW.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2011 NSW state election delivered a swag of seats in western Sydney to the Liberal Party. Widespread dislike and distrust of the ALP re-focused the attention of many of the formerly Labor-voting ethnic communities on the potential benefits of a Coalition government. </p>
<p>In particular, the Lebanese Muslim Association <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/ethnic-voting-trends-prove-powerful-force-20110328-1cdis.html">threw its weight</a> behind the Liberals and a raft of Muslim independents. The Labor machine, centred on Eddie Obeid and his lieutenants, crumpled under the corrosive evidence of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-05/icac-finds-eddie-obeid-and-joe-tripodi-corrupt/5502106">corruption</a>. </p>
<p>But over the past four years, trends evident at that time have taken new directions. The Obeid Labor machine, which had kept Muslims out of the parliament, has been replaced in many areas by invigorated networks run by younger, ambitious Lebanese Muslim, Indians, Bangladeshis and Turks – in addition to the already entrenched Chinese and Koreans. </p>
<p>The Lebanese Muslim Association did make a last-minute <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-election-2015-muslim-group-turns-on-labor-leader-luke-foley-in-auburn-20150325-1m7vea.html">intervention</a>, however. It criticised Labor leader Luke Foley, who is running for the lower house seat of Auburn – which has one of the highest Muslim populations in NSW.</p>
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</figure>
<h2>Changing demographics and party attitudes</h2>
<p>Class mobility in many of these communities has transformed the leadership from first-generation, often public sector union types, into more middle class activists ranging from real estate agents and developers to entrepreneurs, accountants and financiers. All are eager to enjoy the local property booms. </p>
<p>Communities from the sub-continent include many fluent English-speakers whose capacity to engage with Australian politics has been far more rapid than some of the earlier communities from non-English speaking backgrounds. Communities Minister <a href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/members.nsf/0/6124AAF41DD7419ACA2574C500129EE2">Victor Dominello</a>, marked for promotion after the election, has been <a href="http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/2885222/ethnic-leaders-demand-sacking-of-multicultural-nsw-boss-hakan-harman-over-airbrushing-of-war-atrocities/?cs=7">vigorous</a> in pushing his Multicultural NSW vision against an almost invisible Labor opponent. </p>
<p>These political trends were first evident in the transformation of local councils throughout Sydney’s west and southwest. No longer rotten Labor boroughs, they have attracted Liberals, independents, Greens and for a time <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_Party_%28Australia%29">Unity</a> councillors. For example, <a href="http://www.burwood.nsw.gov.au/">Burwood Council</a> in Sydney’s inner-west offers translations in Arabic, Greek, Mandarin and Korean. It overlaps with the state seat of Strathfield, where Labor mayor John Faker was likely to be the successful candidate until the ALP <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/inner-west/faceless-men-burwood-mayor-john-faker-takes-a-swipe-at-labor-party-powerbrokers/story-fngr8h4f-1227101360094">parachuted</a> former Newcastle MP Jodi McKay into the seat. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75776/original/image-20150324-17702-161az5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75776/original/image-20150324-17702-161az5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75776/original/image-20150324-17702-161az5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75776/original/image-20150324-17702-161az5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75776/original/image-20150324-17702-161az5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75776/original/image-20150324-17702-161az5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75776/original/image-20150324-17702-161az5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75776/original/image-20150324-17702-161az5y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An anti-Luke Foley poster from the Change Auburn group.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Change Auburn</span></span>
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<p>Nearby, the seat of Auburn would have seen Muslim Lebanese-Australian and former mayor Hicham Zraika replace Christian Lebanese-Australian Barbara Perry as Labor candidate. However, they were both <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-labor-leader-luke-foley-set-for-auburn-preselection-as-mp-barbara-perry-decides-not-to-recontest-seat-20150107-12jd1r.html">pushed aside</a> as Foley gained lower house pre-selection. Auburn’s current Liberal mayor Ronney Oueik, who is Lebanese of dual religious backgrounds, is <a href="http://www.localnewsplus.com.au/story.php?ID=71030">running against Foley</a>. He has <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-election-diary-luke-foleys-bumpy-road-in-auburn-20150317-1m0wea.html">taken aim</a> at Foley as a non-local.</p>
<p>A group, Change Auburn, has pilloried Foley for his pro-Israel and pro-Armenian views. This has touched on many local prejudices, given the strong Turkish and Arab population.</p>
<p>In nearby Lakemba, ex-Punchbowl High headmaster <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/principal-jihad-dib-of-sydneys-punchbowl-boys-high-school-is-a-study-in-success-20140815-zw0nv.html">Jihad Dib</a> will run to keep the seat in Labor Party hands. This marks a <a href="https://theconversation.com/once-upon-a-time-in-punchbowl-rescues-lebanese-honour-from-shame-27927">tidal shift</a> in the ALP’s perspective.</p>
<h2>Key multicultural issues</h2>
<p>Multicultural issues are also stirring in NSW. They range from education, aged care and health through to political rights to commemorate unresolved overseas conflicts.</p>
<p>Multiculturalism has long included the principle that groups can hold onto their own cultural and political values and views, but they do not introduce their unresolved post-wartime hostilities into Australian political life. In its various guises, Multicultural NSW has been very successful over time in negotiating truces among communities whose young men might otherwise be very violent with each other. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75786/original/image-20150324-17688-jijvol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75786/original/image-20150324-17688-jijvol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75786/original/image-20150324-17688-jijvol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75786/original/image-20150324-17688-jijvol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75786/original/image-20150324-17688-jijvol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75786/original/image-20150324-17688-jijvol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75786/original/image-20150324-17688-jijvol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75786/original/image-20150324-17688-jijvol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Community figure Jihad Dib is running for the ALP in the seat of Lakemba.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/NSW Labor</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>A <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ethnic-leaders-demand-sacking-of-multicultural-nsw-boss-hakan-harman-over-airbrushing-of-war-atrocities-20150216-13f4d3.html">bubbling conflict</a> has surfaced over whether Multicultural NSW demanded that local governments not permit ethnic groups to commemorate volatile overseas events. In this regard, Turkish groups have actively sought to reassert the primacy of Turkish definitions of reality, especially after a <a href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/hansart.nsf/V3Key/LC20130521050">2013 NSW parliamentary resolution</a> recognising the Armenian genocide. </p>
<p>While Multicultural NSW says it was circulating only a draft proposal, Turkish and Japanese advocacy groups had claimed a victory for their efforts to block their opponents. This was until those same Armenian, Greek, Chinese and Korean groups – who were seeking their own memorials – successfully forced Dominello to order the draft <a href="http://www.crc.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/25407/20150216_Multicultural_NSW_CEO_Media_Release.pdf">withdrawn</a>. </p>
<p>In this raft of issues, the NSW government has been placed front and centre in a writhing nest of global soft power conflicts of which it appears to have washed its hands. However, Foley also embodies far too many of them for his own electoral safety.</p>
<p>Given the circumstances, the western Sydney electorates affected by such issues are far less predictable than may be thought. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">coverage</a> of the 2015 NSW election.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38533/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Jakubowicz receives funding from the ARC and the Human Rights Commission for research on cyber-racism. He has been an active supporter of the campaign to retain Section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, and a participant in meetings where the UN Group have discussed the issues at stake for them. He has also been briefed by the head of Multiculturalism NSW Hakan Harman, and has been a participant in Turkish community events associated with the Gulen movement, including travel to Turkey in 2013. </span></em></p>Multicultural issues are stirring in NSW. They range from education, aged care and health through to political rights to commemorate unresolved overseas conflicts.Andrew Jakubowicz, Professor of Sociology and Codirector of Cosmopolitan Civil Societies Research Centre, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393052015-03-25T22:59:55Z2015-03-25T22:59:55ZFederal polling volatility continues<p>This week we have had three polls from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential with different results. Newspoll gave Labor only a 51-49 lead, a 4% move to the Coalition. <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6138-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-march-23-2015-201503230703">Morgan’s headline figure</a> was 56-44 to Labor, but this uses respondent allocated preferences. If you look carefully at the article, you will see a mention that Labor’s lead was only 54-46 by previous election preferences. Finally, Essential has earned a reputation for excessive stability, but it shifted two points to Labor this week, giving Labor a 54-46 lead. As Essential does a rolling average of two weeks’ sampling, that suggests that this week’s sample must have been 55-45 to Labor. Here is this week’s poll table.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75889/original/image-20150325-4197-1rhk6zr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75889/original/image-20150325-4197-1rhk6zr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75889/original/image-20150325-4197-1rhk6zr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=104&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75889/original/image-20150325-4197-1rhk6zr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=104&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75889/original/image-20150325-4197-1rhk6zr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=104&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75889/original/image-20150325-4197-1rhk6zr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75889/original/image-20150325-4197-1rhk6zr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75889/original/image-20150325-4197-1rhk6zr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">polls late Mar.</span>
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</figure>
<p>A major concern for Labor in recent Newspoll and Ipsos polls is that Abbott’s ratings have become dissociated from the Coalition’s Two Party Preferred (2PP). <a href="http://resources.news.com.au/files/2015/03/23/1227275/591915-150324newspoll.pdf">This Newspoll</a> had Abbott’s satisfied rating up 1% to 29% and his dissatisfied rating down 2% to 61%, for a net approval of -32. Such a poor rating for the PM would normally give the opposition about a 54-46 lead, but not this time. While last fortnight’s Newspoll had the PM’s ratings and voting intentions in agreement, the late February Newspoll and Ipsos have not. Before <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/poll-roundup-onion-edition.html">Abbott, only Keating</a> was this unpopular while his party was competitive.</p>
<p>It is possible that this dissociation is explained by two transitory events. In late February and early March, there was much speculation that Malcolm Turnbull could replace Abbott. Currently, there is a NSW state election this Saturday, which the Coalition is expected to win easily. NSW is the most populous state, so if the Coalition is doing much better there federally than usual, this would drive up support for the Federal Coalition, even as Abbott’s ratings remain poor.</p>
<p>In two of the last three Newspolls, the Coalition has had a four point gain. Over the last six weeks, the Labor 2PP has been 57%, 53%, 55% and now 51%. <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/poll-roundup-onion-edition.html">This sequence is the first time</a> a government has had two four point gains in three Newspolls since September 2012. Shorten’s ratings have also been bouncy, with a net approval sequence of +2, -14, -3 and now -11. As Morgan and Essential have moved in the other direction, this Newspoll is probably a rogue.</p>
<p>In Morgan, the primary vote changes were Labor up 2, Coalition down 1, Greens down 0.5. Such changes would normally produce a Labor 2PP gain of slightly under 1.5%. The explanation is that last fortnight’s Morgan was rounded up for Labor, while this one has been rounded down. Morgan leans to Labor by about 1.5% relative to other polls, so if this lean is applied there is only a 1.5% difference between Morgan and Newspoll. After an unusual poll last fortnight, in which both preference measures gave the same 2PP, respondent allocated preferences this week put Labor 2% ahead of the previous election method.</p>
<p>Kevin Bonham’s poll aggregate is now at 52.5% 2PP to Labor, down 0.4% on last week. The <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/26/bludgertrack-52-7-47-3-to-labor-2/">Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack</a> is at 52.7% 2PP to Labor, down 0.3% since last week. Primary votes are 40.3% for the Coalition, 39.1% for Labor and 10.6% for the Greens. Since last week, there has been a 0.5% increase in both major parties’ votes, at the expense of the Greens and Others. The NSW component is showing a 50.0-50.0 tie, 2.7% below the overall result for Labor, suggesting some state election effect.</p>
<h2>More on Essential</h2>
<p>Possibly because Summer was thought to the cooler than expected, <a href="http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_150324.pdf">Essential</a> recorded a 3% drop in the proportion believing in human-caused climate change, down from 57% to 54% since December, with support for the alternative “normal fluctuation in the climate” rising from 29% to 31%. 52% are more concerned about global warming than they were two years ago, with 8% less concerned. Asked what actions on climate change they most support, 45% nominated incentives for renewable energy, 14% an emissions trading scheme, 10% the government’s direct action policy, and 11% thought no action was required. Only 8% thought the 20% renewable energy target (RET) by 2020 was too high, 33% said it was too low and 32% said it was about right. Those saying the RET is too high have declined from 13% last July.</p>
<p>27% thought the Australian economy was currently good, and 33% poor, a shift from a 37-26 margin in favour of good last August. 51% disapproved of Joe Hockey’s performance as Treasurer, and 27% approved, for a net approval of -24, down from -9 last August. Hockey was preferred as Treasurer to Chris Bowen by a slender 26-25 margin, down from a 34-23 Hockey margin; there are too many “don’t know” respondents on this question. Finally, 58% said a warrant should be required to access all Australians’ data under data retention laws.</p>
<h2>More dire NSW polling for Labor</h2>
<p>A new <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6139-sms-morgan-poll-nsw-voting-intention-march-24-2015-201503240426">Morgan SMS NSW poll</a>, taken last Friday to Monday with a sample of 1210, has the Coalition with a headline 56-44 lead from primary votes of 45.5% for the Coalition (down 1), 32.5% for Labor (down 1) and 12% for the Greens (up 0.5). I think the 56-44 headline is actually 56.5-43.5 by last election preferences, unchanged on last week. Actual preference flows will probably be much better for Labor than in 2011, but no flow is going to make up a 13-point primary vote deficit.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2015/03/Essential-Report_150324_NSW2.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted over the last two weeks from a sample of 660, has the Coalition leading Labor 44-36 on primary votes with 9% for the Greens. This would give the Coalition 54% 2PP by 2011 preferences. This Essential is Labor’s best poll since a Galaxy two weeks ago, but eight points is still too large to make up on preferences.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/25/coalition-ahead-as-labor-hit-by-greens-and-minor-parties-in-nsw-election-poll">Lonergan robopoll</a>, conducted from Friday to Sunday with a sample of over 3200, gives the Coalition a crushing 47-31 lead on primary votes with 11% for the Greens. Since last week, changes are Coalition up 1%, Labor down 3% and Greens up 1%. Labor will be hoping that Lonergan has a big lean to the Coalition.</p>
<p><a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/new-south-wales-final-week.html">Kevin Bonham gives the Coalition</a> 55.3% 2PP by 2011 preferences and 53.9% by estimated respondent preferences, with the Coalition winning 53 of the 93 seats. The <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/26/new-south-wales-election-minus-two-days/">Poll Bludger </a> gives the Coalition 56.0% 2PP by last election preferences, 54.4% by respondent allocated, and 52 seats. NSW BludgerTrack graphs now show a clear late campaign trend to the Coalition. With only two days remaining, this contest appears over to me.</p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/22/fairfax-ipsos-54-46-to-coalition-in-nsw/">Galaxy has polled</a> the seats of Campbelltown, Coogee and The Entrance, and the Coalition is narrowly ahead in all three. These leads are slender, so it is certainly possible for Labor to win one or two of these seats. This polling was conducted last Thursday night with samples of about 550 per electorate.</p>
<h2>Israeli election final results</h2>
<p>At the Israeli election held on 17 March, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_legislative_election,_2015#Results">right wing bloc won 57 of the 120</a> Knesset seats, to 42 for the left and 21 for centrist parties; this compares with 61 seats for the right and 38 for the left at the 2013 election. The right wing is composed of Likud (30 seats), Jewish Home (8), Shas (7), the UTJ (6) and Yisrael Beiteinu (6). On the left, the Zionist Union won 24 seats, with 13 for the Joint Arab List and 5 for Meretz. Centrist parties are Yesh Atid (11 seats) and Kulanu (10). Turnout was 72.3%, 4.6% higher than in 2013 and the highest since the 1999 election.</p>
<p>All right wing parties and Kulanu have suggested to the Israeli President that incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be given the task of forming a government. It is thus very likely that Netanyahu will form a government with the support of 67 of the 120 Knesset members.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Israeli_legislative_election,_2015">pre-election polls</a> were wrong on Likud’s support mainly because Netanyahu’s right wing rhetoric in the closing days won over people who were going to vote for other right wing parties. There was a smaller error with the exit polls, which is probably explained by the “shy Tory” effect.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39305/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
This week we have had three polls from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential with different results. Newspoll gave Labor only a 51-49 lead, a 4% move to the Coalition. Morgan’s headline figure was 56-44 to Labor…Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/382972015-03-25T19:15:44Z2015-03-25T19:15:44ZNSW privatisation could hinge on a single upper house vote<p>The Baird government looks likely to be re-elected at the New South Wales election – but, at this stage, it’s hard to see it winning as many seats as it needs in the upper house to push ahead with power privatisation.</p>
<p>That’s why, this Saturday night, we can only hope the TV coverage of the NSW election devotes plenty of time to the Legislative Council and its new members, rather than just focusing on the lower house results.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/media_releases/2015/13_march_know_your_candidates_for_the_nsw_state_election">record 394 candidates</a> are vying for a Legislative Council seat in this election.</p>
<p>The 42-seat NSW upper house is elected by proportional representation, which produces different outcomes to the lower house. Members are elected for eight-year terms, with half elected every four years. </p>
<p>Combined with the 11 members they have who aren’t up for re-election, this time the Liberal Nationals need to win 10 upper house seats to hold a majority in their own right. </p>
<p>However, the more likely outcome is that minor parties such as the Christian Democrats, led by veteran member of the Legislative Council (MLC) <a href="http://frednilemlc.com.au/">Fred Nile</a>, will have the final say on the government’s plans.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"575887740778082304"}"></div></p>
<h2>How is the upper house elected, and who’s there now?</h2>
<p>As you can see from the NSW Parliament table below, the Liberal National coalition was just shy of a majority in this last term of office. So whenever Labor and the Greens opposed legislation, the government needed the support of other crossbenchers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75900/original/image-20150325-4194-1siacj9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The NSW Legislative Council before the 2015 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/web/common.nsf/key/MemberStatistics">NSW Parliament</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 21 seats up for grabs in this election are those of the members elected in 2007, when the Coalition won eight seats, the ALP nine, the Greens two and the Christian Democrats and the Shooters and Fishers one each. </p>
<p>To be elected, members need to achieve a quota of 4.55%. But because voting is optional preferential both above and below the line, a high percentage of votes is exhausted and the final candidates can be elected with less than a full quota. (More information on how to vote correctly for the upper house can be found on the <a href="http://www.vote.nsw.gov.au/polling_places/casting_a_vote/legislative_council">NSW Electoral Commission’s website</a>.)</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75899/original/image-20150325-4213-10z9twe.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Upper house results from the past 37 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/web/common.nsf/key/MemberStatistics">NSW Parliament</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whoever forms the next NSW government would need 21 votes to pass legislation. As ABC election analyst Antony Green explains in this detailed look at the intricacies of the NSW upper house, the Legislative Council President <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/the-battle-for-the-nsw-legislative-council.html">rarely uses</a> her or his casting vote.</p>
<p>But even if the Baird government wins the election, it faces an even bigger challenge to win a majority in the upper house because of the huge number of candidates in this election, including 24 party groupings with above-the-line positions. </p>
<h2>The parties to watch in 2015</h2>
<p>On March 28, NSW voters will be faced with another metre-long <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/above-the-line-is-their-preference/story-fnrskx7r-1227273862005">“tablecloth” ballot</a> for the upper house. That makes it even more likely the vast majority will choose to vote above the line, rather than below.</p>
<p>The prized <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-12/nsw-election-party-using-fake-photos-wins-top-spot-on-ballot/6309904">first position</a> above the line has gone to the <a href="http://www.nolandtax.com.au/">No Land Tax Party</a>, which has likened its fight to abolish land tax to getting rid of death duties in the early 1980s.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75910/original/image-20150325-4187-173dxzt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As this Australian Cyclists Party campaign material shows, the ballot paper is huge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://australian-cyclists-party.org/">Australian Cyclists Party</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The No Land Tax Party has been working with preferences expert Glenn Druery, who <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/nile-ready-to-back-baird-on-electricity/story-fnrskx7r-1227277233031">told The Daily Telegraph</a> this week that “people will get lost on the ballot paper”, giving the minor party a good shot at attracting enough <a href="http://australianpolitics.com/voting/electoral-system/donkey-votes">donkey votes</a> to help win a seat.</p>
<p>The Coalition is listed fifth, while Labor is 11th. </p>
<p>All the way at the other end of the ballot is the <a href="https://australian-cyclists-party.org/">Australian Cyclists Party</a>, which has drawn the 24th and final position, group X. It is contesting a NSW election for the first time, and is pushing for more bike paths, safer roads and a review of speed limits.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75904/original/image-20150325-4187-4rxoqw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Voting above the line is again likely to be the most popular way to vote in the upper house – but you can also choose to vote below the line.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.vote.nsw.gov.au/polling_places/casting_a_vote/legislative_council">NSW Electoral Commission</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The large number of candidates and minor parties will divert votes from the major parties, particularly if voters do not direct preferences to parties above the line or vote for more than 15 candidates below the line (if you choose to vote below the line, you must number at least 15 squares, from 1 to 15, for your vote to be counted; <a href="http://www.vote.nsw.gov.au/polling_places/casting_a_vote/legislative_council">read more here</a>).</p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/nile-ready-to-back-baird-on-electricity/story-fnrskx7r-1227277233031">The Daily Telegraph reported</a> on March 25 that senior Labor and Coalition sources think the most likely upper house result is that the Coalition will have 20 seats, Labor 13, the Greens five, Shooters and Fishers Party two and Reverend Nile’s Christian Democratic Party two. </p>
<h2>Where the parties stand on privatisation</h2>
<p>Labor, the Greens and the Shooters and Fishers Party have all vowed to oppose power privatisation, which is the key to funding the government’s A$20 billion long-term infrastructure plans.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75939/original/image-20150325-14504-3n9l3o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=710&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Bloomberg Business story shared on Fred Nile’s Facebook page, March 24.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10153261321734379&id=152695849378">Fred Nile - Official Christian Democratic Party</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That could leave the casting votes with the Christian Democrats. And it’s not entirely clear yet which way they would go. </p>
<p>As well as insisting on a five-year job guarantee for electricity workers, <a href="http://www.christiandemocraticparty.com.au/media-releases/rev-fred-nile-states-that-the-cdps-conditions-on-privatisation-will-not-alter/">Reverend Nile has reiterated</a> that his party would “use our balance of power in the Upper House to oppose any government proposal to sell our poles and wires offshore”, amid <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-25/nsw-election-mike-baird-under-pressure-china-state-grid-corp/6346342">speculation about Chinese interest</a> in the 99-year leases.</p>
<p>He also plans to chair a <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/nile-ready-to-back-baird-on-electricity/story-fnrskx7r-1227277233031">parliamentary inquiry</a> into the privatisation after the election. </p>
<p>Any restriction on foreign ownership combined with job protection could reduce the value of the 99-year leases of NSW power assets.</p>
<p>Early in this campaign, Premier Mike Baird said that <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-27/no-back-up-plan-if-electricity-sale-falls-flat-baird/6269296">“there is no Plan B”</a> to fund many of his key policies without power privatisation. Unless he gains control of the Legislative Council, he may need to devise one.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bronwyn Stevens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A re-elected Liberal National government needs to win 10 upper house seats in this year’s NSW election to hold a clear majority. But any fewer than 10, and it may need a Plan B on privatisation.Bronwyn Stevens, Lecturer in Politics, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/382292015-03-25T03:26:50Z2015-03-25T03:26:50ZFinding new ways to track voters’ moods, beyond polls and punters<p>The recent Queensland election result surprised everyone – including the professional pollsters and punters. Sportsbet <a href="http://www.sportsbet.com.au/content/articles/lnp-now-into-1-01-shortest-odds-possible-to-win-queensland-election">declared the result</a> and paid out for a win to the Liberal National government one day before the January 31 poll.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We were so confident yesterday that we decided to pay out early on the Liberals as it looks a foregone conclusion. The punters obviously agree with us as they have moved to $1.01.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In that case, the punters got it wrong. Yet that hasn’t stopped the betting agency <a href="http://www.sportsbet.com.au/blog/home/sportsbet-pays-out-early-on-nsw-election">doing the same thing</a> again ahead of the March 28 polling day in NSW.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"580155822543544320"}"></div></p>
<p>The most <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/nsw-election-liberals-mike-baird-beats-labors-luke-foley-polls/6339672">recent Fairfax/Ipsos poll</a> shows the Baird government on track to victory, with a 54% to 46% two-party preferred lead over Labor. But as many people paying close attention to the polls have warned – including <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-premier-mike-baird-on-health-privatisation-and-abbotts-shadow-38093">NSW Premier Mike Baird</a> and ABC election analyst <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/why-the-baird-government-is-vulnerable.html#more">Antony Green</a> – the election could be tighter than the polls show.</p>
<p>So beyond traditional polls and betting markets, how else could we try to gauge how people feel ahead of future elections? Social media is a goldmine of real-time information on public sentiment – and there are new ways to tap into how people really feel, including with a “social mood reader”.</p>
<h2>Polling is getting harder to do well</h2>
<p>Relying too heavily on traditional political polling or even the usually reliable betting market is a risky strategy for political parties and pundits.</p>
<p>Audience measurement for ratings and polling began in the 1930s. The two men behind those measures – <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1985/05/02/nyregion/archibald-crosley-dies-at-88-helped-develop-scientific-polling.html">Archibald Crossley</a> and <a href="http://www.gallup.com/corporate/178136/george-gallup.aspx">George Gallup</a> – were close colleagues.</p>
<p>Audience ratings and political polling were created to provide accurate samples and also to stop “hypoing”, an industry term that means distortion by vested interests wanting to control what public opinion looked like.</p>
<p>Ratings and polling rely on robust samples, which properly represent the defined populations from which they are drawn. Modern political and audience ratings pollsters have always tried to draw an accurate statistical sample for their surveys. </p>
<p>But experts such as the former head of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, <a href="http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/content/72/5/831.full">Peter Miller</a>, have found that maintaining the quality of traditional and web polls around the world is getting harder by the day. </p>
<p>Some of the reasons include the shift away from landlines to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/ten-things-polls-never-tell-you-20150322-1m3ug2.html">mobile phones</a>; the challenge of web identity <a href="http://transparency.aapor.org/index.php/transparency">transparency</a>; the unwillingness of many people, especially <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/comment/ten-things-polls-never-tell-you-20150322-1m3ug2.html">young people</a>, to participate in surveys; and, not least, increased privacy concerns.</p>
<h2>Tapping into the public mood on social media</h2>
<p>What people post and share on social media – such as on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook – can show political moods in real time and it provides qualitatively rich data.</p>
<p>In surveys and focus groups, people are asked questions about their views or behaviour. In social media networks, people’s views are on display as they are expressed. Those views, in turn, are often re-posted elsewhere and opinions are built up on particular issues.</p>
<p>As QUT’s Social Media Research team has covered <a href="https://theconversation.com/nswvotes-twitter-chatter-shows-the-power-of-incumbency-39110">in more detail in The Conversation</a>, among the most popular topics on Twitter in the #nswvotes campaign have been #nswnotforsale and #csg (coal seam gas). </p>
<p>Similar themes dominated the Queensland election, particularly privatisation, which was often discussed with the hashtags #assetssales or #Not4Sale. Those topics’ popularity were driven partly by widespread public concern but also by a well-organised <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/antigovernment-billboards-in-the-sights-of-bleijie-20140301-33soe.html">Queensland union</a>-led <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Not4SaleQLD">Not4Sale</a> campaign, working closely with the Labor Party. (Interestingly, if you try to visit follow the Queensland not4sale.org.au link, it now automatically redirects you to stoptheselloff.org.au – the NSW unions’ anti-privatisation website.)</p>
<p>What people said and shared about “asset sales” in the Queensland election clearly indicated their voting intentions.</p>
<h2>How a ‘social mood reader’ works</h2>
<p>Depending on whether you only follow conversations you agree with or actively seek out different views, the risk with social media is that it can sound like an echo chamber.</p>
<p>So how can a pollster, or anyone, be confident that a negative or a positive “mood” in social media networks will translate into voting behaviour? <a href="https://theconversation.com/nswvotes-twitter-chatter-shows-the-power-of-incumbency-39110">New methods</a> are emerging that try to capture social mood from what people say in their social media networks.</p>
<p>Dr Brett Adams’s work at Curtin University is one example, with his development of a <a href="http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2598633">“social mood reader”</a>, originally developed for autistic groups, to identify quickly the mood of different networks.</p>
<p>Here’s how it works. After getting permission from an individual, the social media reader can access not only what they say and share publicly, but also their private information: who they follow and like (such as if they follow Mike Baird on Facebook, or Stop the Sell Off on Twitter), where they get their information from (for instance, liking The Conversation or ABC News on Facebook), who they are friends with, and what they are seeing in their feeds. It also goes beyond just social media, including other online services the person uses, such as email.</p>
<p>There are some key differences between traditional polls or surveys (which take people time to participate in and which are often done on behalf of political parties or commercial interests) and the social mood reader, including:</p>
<ul>
<li>it takes a participant no time to be involved with the social mood reader, as they are simply giving access to what they are already saying and doing on social media</li>
<li>people like the chance to have their say on matters they care about, especially when they know it is for independent research, rather than for commercial purposes.</li>
</ul>
<p>An individual participant who agrees to share their information with the social mood reader gets to nominate some of the key circles they belong to: for instance, family, friends, work, community groups, political groups etc. You can see an example of how that looks below.</p>
<p>When there is crossover between those various groups, you then see a line or multiple lines criss-crossing between those groups.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73583/original/image-20150303-31860-5xpynt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73583/original/image-20150303-31860-5xpynt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73583/original/image-20150303-31860-5xpynt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73583/original/image-20150303-31860-5xpynt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73583/original/image-20150303-31860-5xpynt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73583/original/image-20150303-31860-5xpynt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73583/original/image-20150303-31860-5xpynt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73583/original/image-20150303-31860-5xpynt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What the social mood reader platform currently looks like, with researcher Mark Balnaves at the centre and his various social connections all around him, on an issue where the community was largely fairly happy (or green).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Balnaves</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Red for angry, green for happy</h2>
<p>I used Dr Adams’s social mood reader in a 2011 trial with City of Geraldton-Greenough in Western Australia, to see how the local community felt about a number of issues: from the rise of fly-in, fly-out mining and what that meant for the community, right down to more local issues such as how people felt about bike safety and the future of a playground roundabout. </p>
<p>Different moods are represented by different colours, based on the Affective Norms for English Words (<a href="http://csea.phhp.ufl.edu/media/anewmessage.html">ANEW</a>). For example, a very deep red, for example, represents “enraged”, while deep green would indicate a mood of great “happiness”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73584/original/image-20150303-31825-7zg5gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73584/original/image-20150303-31825-7zg5gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/73584/original/image-20150303-31825-7zg5gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73584/original/image-20150303-31825-7zg5gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73584/original/image-20150303-31825-7zg5gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73584/original/image-20150303-31825-7zg5gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73584/original/image-20150303-31825-7zg5gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/73584/original/image-20150303-31825-7zg5gb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The colours attributed to various moods in the social mood reader.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brett Adams</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nearly 5,000 people participated in the Geraldton-Greenough council study. What the social mood reader revealed was that the single most controversial issue proved to be fly-in, fly-out mining, with the overall community mood being red, or “angry”, at what it meant for their community.</p>
<p>The Geraldton locals were also angry when asked about the prospect of losing their playground roundabout; when the council saw that result, they kept it.</p>
<p>We also used Brian Sullivan’s <a href="http://civicevolution.org/">CivicEvolution platform</a> in the study, which is an easy way for people to pass on their ideas. So as well as testing for how people felt about issues, we gave participants in our study the chance to propose their ideas directly to the council. </p>
<p>On bike safety, for instance, the council not only found out it was a widespread community concern via the social mood reader, but also got some constructive suggestions about what could be done to improve safety.</p>
<h2>Giving people easier ways to have their say</h2>
<p>As far as I know, Dr Adams’ social mood reader has not been used in any Australian elections yet. But how could it help politicians if it were used in an election?</p>
<p>A good MP should always have a general sense of how her or his electorate feels. But rather than relying just on polls, focus groups, door knocking and gut instinct, a social mood reader could also be used to reveal how a community really feels.</p>
<p>The Geraldton-Greenough council was able to see how red and angry locals were about the prospect of losing their playground roundabout <em>before</em> it happened – and that changed the council’s mind, keeping the community happier. </p>
<p>We know that Australian politics is already highly poll-driven, with everyone from the prime minister down closely watching opinion polls and focus groups. So do we really want one more method of telling politicians their reforms are unpopular, when sometimes those policies might be the right thing to do?</p>
<p>There is no easy answer to that. But the upside of technology like the social mood reader is that it does give the community an immediate opportunity to have their say, participate in the democratic process and feel as if they are really being heard.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38229/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Balnaves has received and receives funding from the Australian Research Council on the history of audience ratings in Australia, development of fear of terrorism metrics, history of popular music in Perth, social games, social media and e-governance, and mapping the creative industries in Newcastle NSW. The social media mood reader research discussed in this article was conducted as part of the Australian Research Council Linkage study Transitions to a Sustainable City - Geraldton WA: An applied study into co-creating sustainability though civic deliberation and social media.</span></em></p>Beyond polls and betting markets, how else can we gauge how people feel ahead of future elections? Social media is a goldmine, and one of the newer ways to tap into it is with a “social mood reader”.Mark Balnaves, Professor of Communication, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/391102015-03-25T01:24:25Z2015-03-25T01:24:25Z#NSWVotes Twitter chatter shows the power of incumbency<p>UPDATED MARCH 27, 11:45AM AEDT: Mike Baird’s Liberal National coalition government has dominated the campaign conversation on Twitter. </p>
<p>Using <a href="http://www.thehypometer.com">Hypometer™ technology</a>, we have been tracking the NSW election in real time and publishing infographics on:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-allparty.png">the volume of posts</a> (including which parties have been most active)</li>
<li>how often the Liberal and Labor parties are <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-2party.png">being mentioned on Twitter</a></li>
<li>and, for the first time, we are tracking the <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png">average sentiment</a> expressed about six different political parties, including trending hashtags. </li>
</ul>
<p>We have embedded those infographics into this article, and they will keep updating every five minutes with the latest social media data. You can keep seeing the latest results right through to polling day this Saturday.</p>
<h2>How much people are tweeting about the Liberals v Labor</h2>
<p>Overall, <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-allparty.png">the volume of Twitter conversation</a> mentioning the parties has been fairly consistent at around 200-250 posts per hour, peaking at around 400-500 per hour each evening. The biggest spikes in activity on March 8 and 13 related to the election debates. Earlier spikes related to the announcement of the election. </p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/images/election-allparty.png"></p>
<p>The seven parties tracked above are, in order, the Liberals, Labor, the Nationals, the Greens, Christian Democratic Party, Shooters and Fishers Party and the Country Labor Party.</p>
<p>As with the Queensland election, the minor parties in NSW have been playing a very small role in overall conversation. For much of the campaign, the Nationals have seen just 5% of the conversation, dropping to 4% for the Greens, and 1-2% for the other parties. (This may change in the final days of the campaign: the infographic below shows the latest results.)</p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-2party.png"></p>
<p>As the campaign has progressed, the balance of conversation across the two major parties shifted somewhat more towards Labor, although this came at the expense of the minor parties rather than conversation around the Liberals. Discussion of the Liberal Party has largely held steady at around 55% of the total party-related conversation.</p>
<p>We saw similar patterns before January’s state election in Queensland, where the majority of pre-election Twitter chatter focused on the Liberal National government, but that government was later narrowly defeated.</p>
<p>In both Queensland and NSW, it’s the incumbent effect at work, where people are more likely to be talking about the current government, in both positive and negative ways.</p>
<h2>Tracking sentiment</h2>
<p>For the first time, we have also been using Hypometer technology to <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png">track sentiment</a> during the campaign. A single tweet on its own tells us little, but aggregating the tweets relating to each of the parties on each day may generate a better picture of overall sentiment. </p>
<p>Early analysis indicates that such sentiment shifts rapidly from day to day and can be heavily influenced by external events. For example, the shift in tone of those discussing the Liberal Party has, at times, been affected significantly by events at the federal level – especially early in the campaign when there was still speculation about a leadership spill. </p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png"></p>
<p>Green indicates more positive Twitter comments, while red is for more negative. The parties listed, in order, are the Liberals, Labor, the Nationals, the Greens, Christian Democratic Party, Country Labor Party.</p>
<h2>Hot topics</h2>
<p>State-level policies are still influential in the overall conversation. To date, the most prominent trending hashtags in our data set – ignoring generic hashtags such as #nswvotes and #nswpol – have largely related to specific events.</p>
<p>For example, on March 19 #balmainforum was among the most popular Twitter topics in Sydney, as the Greens’ Jamie Parker and the ALP’s Verity Firth battled it out in a <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/inner-west/jamie-parker-and-verity-firth-battle-it-out-for-greens-and-labor-at-inner-west-courier-election-forum/story-fngr8h4f-1227269718935">debate</a> for the inner-west Sydney seat of Balmain.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"578526315013259264"}"></div></p>
<p>But some competing party policies on specific issues have also cut through with particular hashtags, including such #nswnotforsale for electricity privatisation and #csg for coal seam gas, as well as #pilliga (a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-20/labor-pilliga-csg-ban-could-cost-taxpayers-nsw-govt-says/6334990">reference</a> to coal seam gas exploration in the Pilliga Forest).</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"576951829738577920"}"></div></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"580246238244667393"}"></div></p>
<h2>The benefit of incumbency</h2>
<p>Overall, social media patterns cannot tell us who is going to win the NSW election, nor can social media necessarily decide the election. </p>
<p>And of course it should be noted that the Twitter conversation covers only part of the overall public debate. Twitter’s demographics in Australia skew towards a 25- to 55-year-old, urban, educated group, which tends to be influential in public debate, but does not represent everybody. What our research reveals should therefore be seen within a wider context of public debate and discussion.</p>
<p>However, our observations to date confirm the benefit of incumbency and provide a useful indication of the changes in discussion around the parties, in both volume and sentiment, throughout the campaign. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darryl Woodford is co-founder of Hypometer, and receives funding from qutbluebox for the development of commercial social media analytics.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Prowd is co-founder of Hypometer, and receives funding from qutbluebox for the development of commercial social media analytics.</span></em></p>UPDATED March 27, 11:45am: These live infographics continue to show the most tweeted about people and parties in the New South Wales election.Darryl Woodford, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyAxel Bruns, Professor, Creative Industries, Queensland University of TechnologyKatie Prowd, Assistant Data Analyst, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/387022015-03-24T19:22:17Z2015-03-24T19:22:17ZFactCheck: is 53% of Australia under exploration licence for unconventional mining?<blockquote>
<p>Our country stands on the brink of being irrevocably damaged by the impact of CSG (coal seam gas), with 53% of the landmass of Australia under current exploration licence for unconventional mining. – <strong>The Reverend Fred Nile MP, in a <a href="http://www.christiandemocraticparty.com.au/media-releases/cdp-calls-for-a-moratorium-on-coal-seam-gas-mining-in-nsw/">media release</a> calling for an immediate moratorium on CSG, March 11, 2015.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Coal seam gas and other forms of unconventional mining have become increasingly politically sensitive issues in the lead up to the March 28 New South Wales election. Those issues may even help swing <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/antiprivatisation-push-sees-greens-and-labor-strike-preference-deal-in-key-nsw-seats-20150316-1m0981.html">seats</a> in regional areas.</p>
<p>As this article on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-coal-seam-gas-after-the-nsw-election-38904">the future of coal seam gas in NSW</a> noted, the NSW Nationals’ leader Troy Grant recently <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/26667658/nsw-nationals-launch-campaign-for-state-election-promise-country-trains-and-better-mobile-coverage/">said</a> of the CSG debate that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>People are yelling at each other. It’s probably one of the most difficult things we’ve had to grapple with in government.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>With passions running so high, it is important to have accurate figures on the scope and extent of unconventional gas mining in Australia. </p>
<p>So, is Christian Democratic Party leader Fred Nile correct when he says that 53% of Australia’s landmass is under current exploration licence for unconventional mining?</p>
<h2>Where did that number come from?</h2>
<p>When asked for a source for the figure of 53%, Reverend Nile’s office directed The Conversation to the <a href="http://www.lockthegate.org.au">website</a> of anti-CSG group, Lock the Gate. Their website states that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>54% of Australia is covered by coal and gas licences or applications. Nowhere is sacred and nothing is safe. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>If you click through to Lock the Gate’s <a href="http://www.lockthegate.org.au/calltocountry">Call to Country</a> page, you can download maps, including this one below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75345/original/image-20150319-1577-y1uzww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75345/original/image-20150319-1577-y1uzww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75345/original/image-20150319-1577-y1uzww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75345/original/image-20150319-1577-y1uzww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75345/original/image-20150319-1577-y1uzww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75345/original/image-20150319-1577-y1uzww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75345/original/image-20150319-1577-y1uzww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75345/original/image-20150319-1577-y1uzww.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map entitled Australia: our country or their quarry?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/lockthegate/pages/289/attachments/original/1364715877/ourcountrytheirquarry(medium).png?1364715877">Lock the Gate</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lock the Gate relied on data from official state government records, a 2013 <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/lockthegate/pages/289/attachments/original/1364882093/NationalGISAnalysis_March2013.pdf?13648820">report</a> on the group’s website said.</p>
<p>A Lock the Gate spokesperson told The Conversation via email that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The map and the figures we derived were for all coal and petroleum titles and applications. I’m not sure that we have ever made the claim that these titles will all be subject to unconventional mining methods. It is not really possible beforehand to be certain what method will be used when an exploration title is given or applied for. The titles and licences do not differentiate … </p>
<p>Lock the Gate’s Call to Country research in 2013 found that 437 million hectares of land in Australia is covered by coal and gas licences or applications, which is more than half of the land mass of the country. There may be some change since that time, but it’s largely the same now. Last year, the NSW Government suspended applications for new petroleum titles and, in the last six weeks, have bought back several million hectares of petroleum titles – our figure does not reflect those recent developments. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The spokesperson also said that unconventional extraction techniques are “driving the boom in acreage releases by state governments, licence applications by companies and existing exploration activities”.</p>
<p>To summarise: Reverend Nile’s office said the NSW MP got his figure for the extent of unconventional mining from Lock the Gate – but Lock the Gate has said they have only ever produced figures on <em>all</em> coal and petroleum titles and applications. </p>
<h2>Conventional and unconventional mining: what’s the difference?</h2>
<p>The term “unconventional” gas covers shale gas, <a href="http://www.dmp.wa.gov.au/documents/Petroleum_What_is_Shale_Gas_Fact_Sheet.pdf">tight gas</a> and coal seam gas mining. Shale and tight gas extraction rely upon a controversial practice called hydraulic fracturing or “<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-coal-seam-gas-shale-gas-and-fracking-in-australia-2585">fracking</a>”. This technique may also be used in coal seam gas extraction, although less frequently. Fracking involves fracturing a coal or rock seam and injecting water, sand and chemicals into the fracture to release the gas contained within.</p>
<p>Conventional coal and gas mining do not involve extraction from unconventional reservoirs, and usually do not involve fracking. </p>
<p>The Lock the Gate statistics from their 2013 <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/lockthegate/pages/289/attachments/original/1364882093/NationalGISAnalysis_March2013.pdf?1364882093">report</a> do not identify the distinction between conventional and unconventional. Their statistics cover a mix of conventional and unconventional mining, including: <em>exploration</em> titles for coal, mining and petroleum and <em>applications</em> for coal, mining and petroleum titles.</p>
<p>Lock the Gate <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/lockthegate/pages/289/attachments/original/1364882093/NationalGISAnalysis_March2013.pdf?1364882093">estimates</a> that the total overlapping area of Australia affected by coal and gas titles and applications in Australia is 437 million hectares, or 56.9% of the land mass. </p>
<p>Lock the Gate’s report doesn’t specify how much of that 56.9% is <em>unconventional</em> mining alone. They don’t say it is 53%, as claimed by Reverend Nile.</p>
<h2>What do other stakeholders say?</h2>
<p>It’s hard to pin a precise figure on the extent of unconventional mining in Australia. A spokesperson for Geoscience Australia, the agency that advises government, industry and other stakeholders on geoscience matters, told The Conversation that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The type of information that would need to be analysed is held by the individual State/NT Regulators and is not collated or collected through Geoscience Australia. While there is some data present online, the legislative frameworks vary between the jurisdictions (for example: in some jurisdictions CSG is treated as a mineral and in others as petroleum) and it is not necessarily clear what is unconventional and what is conventional. This obviously makes it difficult to accurately piece together the information you are seeking to verify.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A spokesperson for the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (<a href="http://www.appea.com.au/">APPEA</a>), which represents industry, disputed Reverend Nile’s figure of 53%, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is no evidence to support such a claim. By its own admission Lock the Gate, an organisation opposed to the development of natural gas from coal seams, base their figures on both petroleum and exploration titles and title applications. These are not confined to unconventional gas resources such as natural gas from coal seams or shale. In addition, a number of applications can exist over the same area until one is approved. As such, this figure is artificially inflated.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Unfortunately, there is no single national database against which Reverend Nile’s or Lock the Gate’s figures can be checked. </p>
<p>Even if one were to go through applications on a state-by-state basis, it’s hard to know based on applications alone whether conventional or unconventional mining methods will be used. So it’s not really possible to use state government sources to show that 53% of the landmass of Australia is under current exploration licence for unconventional mining.</p>
<h2>CSG is on the rise</h2>
<p>All that aside, the prospect of unconventional gas mining in Australia is expanding. According to the 2014 International Energy Agency <a href="http://www.iea.org/media/freepublications/security/EnergySupplySecurity2014_PART1.pdf">Energy Supply Security Report</a>, global gas demand is expected to reach nearly 4,000 billion cubic metres by 2018. This additional demand is being driven by increased unconventional gas production in the United States, Australia and the former Soviet Union region.</p>
<p>Despite some <a href="http://nsw.liberal.org.au/three-csg-licences-cancelled/">NSW government buy-backs</a> of exploration titles, NSW Premier Mike Baird has <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/mike-baird-promises-tough-new-coal-seam-gas-rules-this-year-20150318-1m26iq">said</a> that the CSG industry would continue to expand if his government is re-elected, although under tighter environmental controls in line with those <a href="http://www.chiefscientist.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/56912/140930-CSG-Final-Report.pdf">recommended</a> by the NSW Chief Scientist, Mary O'Kane. (You can read more about the government’s gas plan and other parties’ CSG policies <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-coal-seam-gas-after-the-nsw-election-38904">here</a>.)</p>
<p>In overall terms, production of unconventional gas in Australia is expected to continue to grow.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Reverend Nile’s office said he got his figure on the extent of unconventional mining from Lock the Gate. But Lock the Gate has said they have only produced figures on <em>all</em> coal and petroleum titles and applications – which covers more than just unconventional mining.</p>
<p>Reverend Nile’s statement that “53% of the landmass of Australia under current exploration licence for unconventional mining” is not supported by any evidence, including the source his office provided.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>This is a sound analysis. As commented by Geoscience Australia and APPEA, it is difficult to obtain accurate figures on licence areas, due to differing jurisdictions and the way that information is categorised and compiled. There is no evidence to support Reverend Nile’s claim. <strong>– Peter Cook</strong></p>
<p><em>Correction: an earlier version of this article stated that conventional coal and gas mining do not involve fracking. In fact, conventional gas wells in the Cooper Basin are hydraulically fractured.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><div class="callout"> Have you ever seen a “fact” that doesn’t look quite right? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38702/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Cook has received funding from ARC in the past.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Is Christian Democratic Party leader Fred Nile correct when he says that 53% of Australia’s landmass is under current exploration licence for unconventional mining?Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/391302015-03-24T19:18:22Z2015-03-24T19:18:22ZThe marketing battle for NSW hearts and minds on privatisation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75781/original/image-20150324-17709-p452zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In the countdown to the March 28 New South Wales election, social media is a key battleground for persuading swinging voters.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/lyon_brendan/status/580124591227539456">@lyon_brendan/Twitter</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The road to electricity privatisation in New South Wales is a long one, strewn with political corpses. Most notably, former Labor premier Morris Iemma watched the beginning of the end of his administration as he tackled the industrial base of his party, which opposed privatisation.</p>
<p>The various campaigns for and against the privatisation of electricity presented in the current NSW election provide some insights into modern Australian democracy. </p>
<p>Even though the <a href="http://nsw.liberal.org.au/">Baird government</a> is one of the most secure in Australia, facing an opposition with a new, relatively unknown leader, the privatisation issue has gained significant traction, potentially swinging votes back to its opponents, including <a href="http://www.nswlabor.org.au/">Labor</a>, <a href="nsw.greens.org.au/">the Greens</a> and the <a href="http://www.shootersandfishers.org.au/">Shooters and Fishers Party</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"579772834882445314"}"></div></p>
<p>Both the pro- and anti-privatisation campaigns have been well-funded and resourced, with business backing the Liberals on one side and the unions backing Labor on the other.</p>
<p>The Baird government has presented a case of asset recycling where money from the sale of the electricity supply infrastructure will be directed towards much-needed roads, rail and buildings. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wgHyDmyB-O4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal Party NSW.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://stoptheselloff.org.au/">Stop the Sell Off</a> group has campaigned on claims of higher power prices, decreased reliability, job losses and foreign ownership. Money will no longer go to schools and hospitals. <a href="http://www.unionsnsw.org.au/nswnotforsale">Unions NSW</a> have adopted a similar set of messages, as has NSW Labor.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7lKeiHKvCP4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NSW Labor.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The playing field for selling competing ideas in an election is now far more even than it has been in the past. It is no longer just about election war chests. </p>
<p>The growing power of social media can undercut bigger budget campaigns. A carefully considered, community-based social media campaign can derail even the largest advertising effort.</p>
<h2>Emotions rule in advertising</h2>
<p>In terms of presentation, the pro-privatisation, business-backed campaign appears to be much slicker. It has, however, mostly lacked a strong emotional message. Advertising is most effective at the emotional level; it simply does not work to bombard people with facts and figures. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75780/original/image-20150324-17675-1dhzt5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75780/original/image-20150324-17675-1dhzt5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75780/original/image-20150324-17675-1dhzt5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75780/original/image-20150324-17675-1dhzt5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75780/original/image-20150324-17675-1dhzt5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75780/original/image-20150324-17675-1dhzt5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75780/original/image-20150324-17675-1dhzt5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75780/original/image-20150324-17675-1dhzt5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The homepage of the Repowering NSW campaign, backed by major state and national business groups.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://repoweringnsw.org.au/">http://repoweringnsw.org.au/</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The business lobby group <a href="http://repoweringnsw.org.au/">Repowering NSW</a> has made the mistake of largely presenting a business case. Arguments such as the NSW economy will be boosted by A$300 billion over the next 20 years are meaningless to most people. </p>
<p>Too much of the business campaign has been talking to itself – not to swinging voters. It has taken too long to shift to more emotionally compelling messages about cutting Sydney’s notorious traffic congestion.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75782/original/image-20150324-17693-18zuix7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75782/original/image-20150324-17693-18zuix7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75782/original/image-20150324-17693-18zuix7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75782/original/image-20150324-17693-18zuix7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=580&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75782/original/image-20150324-17693-18zuix7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75782/original/image-20150324-17693-18zuix7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75782/original/image-20150324-17693-18zuix7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=729&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/victorianlabor/status/482360841077936129">Victorian Labor/Twitter</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In comparison, the recent Labor campaign in Victoria linking the leasing of Melbourne’s ports to specific level-crossing upgrades worked a treat. If you are going to use facts and figures, make them real for people. </p>
<p>One of the main pro-privatisation messages in this NSW election has been about the urgent need to renew infrastructure. </p>
<p>Here, the pro campaign has finally focused more clearly on an issue close to people’s hearts – urban congestion.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"579884539020910593"}"></div></p>
<p>However, while traffic jams are an important issue for people, especially those living in Sydney, job security is also a key driver. The anti-privatisation campaign has pushed the idea that this will lead to <a href="http://www.portnews.com.au/story/2930172/job-loss-fears-are-very-real/">job losses</a> very hard, and made a lot of impact because of it. </p>
<p>On balance, while both campaign strategies have been reasonably effective, the anti campaign has been better at speaking more directly to people’s concerns, giving it a stronger emotional edge.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"578875881415782400"}"></div></p>
<h2>Who do you trust?</h2>
<p>There is one area where, from both a marketing and political perspective, you would have to say both sides of this debate have failed. </p>
<p>No doubt most campaigners on all sides would believe in what they’re selling. However, from the public’s perspective, none of these interest groups can be seen as acting purely in the community’s best interests. </p>
<p>For example, unions will always fight prospective job cuts to protect their members – but also to protect their own influence. Reduced membership means less power, money and votes within the ALP.</p>
<p>Similarly, business talks in the disinterested language of improved efficiency. But many of the business groups behind the Repowering NSW campaign stand to benefit from the government’s plan, so their stance is equally unsurprising.</p>
<p>Each side of this debate, and each of the major parties, has worked hard to try to persuade the public that their interests are the same as the broader community’s interest. This communication technique is called “framing”.</p>
<p>Part of this framing is the appeal to the “science” of public opinion – polling. All groups commission polls to cast the illusion of broad-based popular support for their side of the issue. </p>
<p>Every poll that claims the public will accept privatisation if the money fixes roads is countered by a poll that questions if you may hypothetically want the Chinese to own your electricity. Polls are part of the communication process.</p>
<h2>Recent history favours the status quo</h2>
<p>Forced to choose between contesting appeals to sectional interest, the public invariably defaults to the status quo. This is a particularly strong force. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf">2014 research paper</a> from Princeton and Northwestern Universities has shown that the cards are stacked against any government undertaking a wide-ranging initiative. In a study of 1779 cases, even when 80% of the community favour an initiative, a government will get the change through in only 43% of cases.</p>
<p>Here in Australia, in almost any political fight, the supporters of the status quo have almost all the cards. </p>
<p>A highly unpopular Paul Keating defeated John Hewson when the Liberals advocated a GST. The Howard government almost lost office after one term when it introduced the same measure. </p>
<p>After a massive electoral landslide, the Victorian Kennett government, which instituted a raft of privatisations, lost 3% in its first term and government in its second. Earlier this year, Queensland’s Newman government lost office after a raft of radical reforms, including its own privatisation plans.</p>
<p>The Gillard government introduced the carbon tax and suffered as a result of that reform. Tony Abbott campaigned on restoring the status quo, with “a grown-up, adult government that thinks before it acts”. But since being elected, the prime minister concedes his government was “too bold and too ambitious”, and now finds his own agenda under assault. </p>
<p>The NSW privatisation campaign is another chapter in a long list of governments advocating major reform and meeting widespread opposition from a community that is attached to the status quo.</p>
<p>Any party that advocates sticking with the status quo has a huge advantage. So given the long history on power privatisation in NSW, and facing a more emotionally powerful campaign from his opponents, the Baird government is actually doing pretty well to be closing in on polling day in a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/poll-shows-mike-baird-set-for-victory-as-he-rallies-the-troops-at-campaign-launch-20150322-1m4vmt.html">winning position</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39130/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Kevin Brianton and Mr Mark Civitella are lecturers in strategic communication at La Trobe University. Both have worked on both sides of privatisation campaigns in various capacities over their 30-year careers in both government and community relations.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neither Dr Brianton nor Mr Civitella work for, consult to or own shares in any company or organisation that would benefit from this article.</span></em></p>Given the history on privatisation in NSW, and facing a more emotionally powerful campaign, the Baird government is actually doing pretty well to be closing in on polling day in a winning position.Kevin Brianton, Lecturer in Strategic Communication, La Trobe UniversityMark Civitella, Lecturer in Strategic Communication, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/391662015-03-24T02:12:24Z2015-03-24T02:12:24ZElectricity privatisation: has the NSW golden goose been plucked?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75773/original/image-20150324-17696-lwxi32.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electricity privatisation has delivered big nest eggs for various state governments – but the NSW government's $A13 billion privatisation price tag risks being undermined by an election pledge and the recent UBS controversy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-22199332/stock-photo-gold-egg-in-a-real-nest.html?src=pp-photo-168946487-4&ws=1">Dmitry Melnikov from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>NSW Premier Mike Baird has staked his government’s re-election on the privatisation of 49% of the state’s electricity distribution and transmission networks.</p>
<p>The A$13 billion of expected proceeds, along with A$2 billion from the federal government’s <a href="http://www.budget.gov.au/2014-15/content/glossy/infrastructure/html/infrastructure_04.htm">Asset Recycling Initiative</a> and <a href="http://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/miscellaneous/rebuilding-nsw-update-electricity-networks.pdf">interest on the sale proceeds</a> are all earmarked to fund A$20 billion of new infrastructure.</p>
<p>But that A$20 billion and the government’s infrastructure plan are both at risk because of two key events in the NSW election campaign.</p>
<h2>A price tag undercut by a price “guarantee”</h2>
<p>Premier Baird has made an <a href="http://nsw.liberal.org.au/guaranteed-lower-prices-for-electricity-customers/">election commitment</a> “guaranteeing” lower network charges in 2019 from privatised NSW companies.</p>
<p>As I explained <a href="https://theconversation.com/myths-not-facts-muddy-the-electricity-privatisation-debate-38524">in The Conversation</a> last week, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) sets the network charges, rather than governments. Those network charges are set for five-year periods and the AER has issued <a href="http://www.aer.gov.au/">draft determinations for 2014 – 2019</a>.</p>
<p>So, a potential buyer has a good idea of expected income levels over the next few years.</p>
<p>But it’s now not quite that simple.</p>
<p><a href="http://nsw.liberal.org.au/guaranteed-lower-prices-for-electricity-customers/">Baird has made an election promise</a> that buyers will be required to sign a “guarantee” that network prices will be lower in 2019 than in 2014. But the notion that new owners can commit in advance to lower prices is loaded with assumptions that the NSW network businesses are riddled with waste, so-called costly work practices and “gold plating”.</p>
<p>If these assumptions are not correct, then where will new owners find savings to deliver lower network charges, while still providing a rate of return acceptable to shareholders? Will investment to meet reliability and safety standards be cut to get savings and thus increase the possibilities of blackouts?</p>
<p>Waste and inefficiencies are not the usual marketing techniques to get the best possible price for an asset. Will a potential buyer want to pay the NSW government’s reserve sale price or, more likely, a price discounted by the need to cover the price “guarantee” and the unknown evidence of waste and unnecessary cost?</p>
<h2>Political controversy hurts investor confidence</h2>
<p>The second event risking the expected privatisation proceeds concerns the release of a report on the proposed electricity privatisation by investment bank UBS, a privatisation adviser to the NSW government.</p>
<p>The timing of the report’s release less than two weeks before polling day made it political.</p>
<p>But its amendment and re-issue, widely reported in the <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/ubs-revises-damaging-nsw-power-sale-critique-20150318-1m1gyc">media</a>, has made it even more political.</p>
<p>The amended UBS research report presented a more positive picture of the outcomes of the proposed privatisation, and one more in line with the pro-privatisation arguments of the NSW government.</p>
<p>The NSW Labor opposition has alleged political interference by the NSW premier’s office. Mike Baird has confirmed that his office did contact UBS after the report’s initial release, but <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-state-election-2015-baird-dismisses-inquiry-into-ubs-report-changes-as-an-election-stunt-20150321-1m4itc.html">denies the report was changed</a> because of that contact.</p>
<p>If it does emerge that political influence was brought to bear on the report’s analysis, that would flout the usual conventions of caretaker government during an election period. And if an investment bank engaged by a government did change its work because of political pressure, that would be seen as entering the political fray – and it would not promote investor confidence in the independence of the analysis.</p>
<p>At this stage, it’s not clear that’s really what happened. But it looks likely we will be hearing more about this after the election.</p>
<p>Labor, the Greens and the Shooters and Fishers Party – the three parties campaigning against electricity privatisation – are reportedly planning <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/21/mike-baird-faces-post-election-inquiry-into-changes-to-ubs-privatisation-report">to push</a> for a NSW upper house parliamentary inquiry into the allegations of political interference.</p>
<p>An inquiry would delay the planned electricity privatisation and hence, Baird’s infrastructure plan. And it will do little for investor certainty and confidence.</p>
<p>Nor will <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/asic-investigating-ubs-following-changes-to-nsw-power-sale-critique-20150323-1m5jhi">reports</a> that the Australian and Securities Investment Commission (ASIC) has asked UBS to “please explain” the incident and its “Chinese walls” separating corporate advisory functions from research. </p>
<p>As one of <a href="http://download.asic.gov.au/media/1239863/rg79-published-10-december-2012.pdf">ASIC’s regulatory guides</a> makes very clear: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>For research to be genuinely objective and independent, research staff must be
quarantined from other business units such as units who have client relationship
management responsibilities. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Two decades of controversy</h2>
<p>The privatisation of NSW electricity has been bedevilled for decades by controversy and opposition since first being mooted in 1997.</p>
<p>The former Labor government’s 2010 strategy of selling generation trading rights and the retail businesses was dogged from the outset about retention values, bid prices and the governance structure for the sales. And that led to the <a href="http://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/132372/Final_Report_of_the_Special_Commission_of_Inquiry_into_the_Electricity_Transactions.pdf">Tamberlin Inquiry</a> in 2011, set up by the then newly-elected O’Farrell Liberal government.</p>
<p>Once this weekend’s election is over, either a politically-charged parliamentary inquiry or an independent ASIC inquiry into the UBS report would make potential buyers understandably cautious. </p>
<p>Any ongoing controversy would also place downward pressure on the price, no matter how much the NSW government and its advisers confidently talk up the privatisation of the network businesses. Political uncertainty does not generate investor confidence.</p>
<p>Electricity privatisations across Australia have been like golden geese, providing some <a href="http://elr.sagepub.com/content/early/recent">A$37 billion</a> in proceeds to state governments since 1992, most of which has been used to retire debt.</p>
<p>But the election promise of lower network charges, combined with the possible fallout from the UBS electricity privatisation report, have placed at risk the NSW golden goose laying a A$20 billion egg.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39166/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lynne has not received funding from any source in the research and writing of this article. She was an independent member of the Federal Government’s 2011-12 Energy White Paper Reference Group, and is a former Board member for the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (2009-15) and the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (2011-14). She is a former Senior Executive of Energy Australia (1997-99) and a former adviser (1984-90) to Federal Labor Ministers and the Federal Labor Opposition (2004). Since 2003, she has been an academic and the topic of her PhD was the restructuring of the Australian electricity sector. In 2012, she received funding from the Consumer Advocacy Panel (Australian Energy Market Commission) for a project investigating the impacts of higher electricity prices on low-income households. In 2014, she made presentations on privatisation to the Sydney Water Delegates Conference (organised by the Australian Services Union) and to the NSW Power Conference (organised by the Electrical Trades Union, United Services Union and Professionals Australia). </span></em></p>Electricity privatisations have been like golden geese, providing A$37 billion to Australian state governments since 1992. But the price for NSW’s privatisation risks being undercut by two key events.Lynne Chester, Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Economy, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/388532015-03-24T01:08:25Z2015-03-24T01:08:25ZThe real health issues facing NSW, without the spin<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75648/original/image-20150323-17678-o63jfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Promises to build or upgrade public hospitals are made at every state election, while other issues are ignored. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-183418442/stock-photo-hospital-bed-after-patient-get-well.html?src=bp1YBA_yldUTBWwdhv_5Gg-1-1">Sapol Chairatkaewcharoen/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What happens when you bring a state health minister face-to-face with her two main challengers, fronting a roomful of health experts, without any TV cameras or dictaphones to leap on any “gaffes” or stumbles? </p>
<p>What you can get is a genuinely informative debate, largely free of three-second soundbites. I saw this late last month at a <a href="https://www.eventbrite.com.au/e/the-great-election-debate-public-health-in-nsw-tickets-15293152230">public debate</a> sponsored by the Public Health Association of Australia, the Health Promotion Association of Australia and the Menzies Centre for Health Policy. </p>
<p>Watching the debate, I couldn’t help wondering: if our political debates were like this a little more often, how much more could we achieve for informed voting on health matters in Australia?</p>
<h2>Health in the NSW election</h2>
<p>The NSW election campaign is in its last furious week, ahead of polling day on March 28. </p>
<p>Like building better roads or stronger law and order, some state election issues are hardy perennials – and health always <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-05/nsw-election-2015-vote-compass-issues-economy-asset-sales/6280030">ranks highly with voters</a>. Promises to build or upgrade public hospitals, to shorten elective surgical waiting lists, and employ more nurses are all part of the theatre of every state election. </p>
<p>Of course, new health infrastructure is essential. But lost in the promises of buildings is a more fundamental issue: the necessary recurrent cost of every new hospital bed or operating theatre. Every new hospital bed <a href="http://health.vic.gov.au/feesman/fees1.htm">costs</a> more than A$220,000 a year just to accommodate the patient before the costs of the medical treatment; and every intensive care bed is more than twice as much. </p>
<p>Given the states and territories have limited capacity to <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-health-spending-is-forecast-to-slow-but-states-face-rising-bills-38493">increase their revenue</a>, funding new hospital beds will potentially come at the expense of some other health service, such as improved community care. And every recurrent dollar committed to health care comes at the expense of funding some other public services. </p>
<p>This is a political issue and therefore should be an issue voters should get a say on.</p>
<h2>Neglected issues</h2>
<p>All too often, other substantive health care issues, such as access to speech therapy and community mental health care, get lost in promises to swinging electorates or populist themes.</p>
<p>Serious public health issues – such as taxing soft drinks to prevent obesity, or limiting on the number of packaged alcohol outlets, or the health impacts of motorway tunnels – get a dismissive mention, at best. </p>
<p>That’s why I was so struck by what I heard at the pre-election health debate involving the NSW health minister, <a href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/members.nsf/0/517fd3b146c5aa674a25674500016598?OpenDocument">Jillian Skinner</a>, and the Labor and Greens spokespeople, <a href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/members.nsf/0/ABB362A561210096CA25789A0035759A?Open&refnavid=LC3_3">Walt Secord</a> and <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/members.nsf/0/D3E98E051A9371BBCA2572BA001DF73F">John Kaye</a>. </p>
<p>Aside from the few digs you would expect at the minister on government policy, refreshingly, it was not full of the usual populist promises. What each of the NSW MPs chose to speak about revealed something about themselves and the parties they represent. </p>
<p>The health minister spoke about the importance of <a href="https://theconversation.com/gp-clinics-arent-so-super-but-its-too-early-to-pull-the-plug-25448">integrated care</a>, of joining up the health system for people with chronic and complex conditions, and the importance of community-based services for drug and alcohol dependency, palliative care and chronic pain. </p>
<p>Speaking for Labor, Secord shared a telling insight into his personal perspective on health disadvantage and the importance of universality in access to health care and public education. He noted that these were critical to addressing the poor health of the Aboriginal community along with housing and employment. </p>
<p>And for the Greens, Kaye spoke about the need for governments to intervene when there was market failure. He identified the <a href="https://theconversation.com/fat-nation-why-so-many-australians-are-obese-and-how-to-fix-it-23783">promotion and over-consumption</a> of fatty foods, sugar-sweetened products and hidden calories, which resulted in ill-health as something that required government regulation. </p>
<p>Their presentations and banter were followed by lively interaction with the audience. Questions ranged from access to treatment for hepatitis B, and alcohol-control measures including banning the number of packaged alcohol outlets, to the importance of nurse-patient ratios for safe care. </p>
<p>A question about the importance of expert health assessments to decisions about motorway tunnels led to a discussion of the health impacts of coal mining and concerns about new mines in the Hunter Valley. </p>
<p>These are all important health issues. Yet how much have you seen them reported on or debated in this state election campaign?</p>
<h2>Community-driven health policy</h2>
<p>It is possible to engage the community in informed discussion of health options. Several Australian research groups have used deliberative techniques such as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/futuretense/citizens-juries-and-deliberative-democracy/5762684">citizen juries</a> to examine community preferences around areas as diverse as responses to options for emergency medical care, management of obesity, “fat” taxes, and emerging infectious diseases threats. </p>
<p>The general approach involves providing information and perspectives from experts to groups selected to represent particular communities. The late health economist Gavin Mooney believed that “informed citizens do not have a great enough say in how health services are funded, run and planned” and produced a <a href="http://www.newdemocracy.com.au/docs/researchpapers/Mooney_CJ_BookJanuary2010.pdf">free guide</a> to their use. </p>
<p>In the world of broadband connectivity, such approaches could be available to the whole electorate. </p>
<p>Given we are repeatedly told we can’t have everything in health care, the broader community is entitled to an informed debate about things that will make substantive differences to their community – and not just promises of local infrastructure and resources that should be decided on measured need and equity. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38853/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Wilson is Director of the Australian Prevention Partnership Centre which is jointly funded by the NHMRC, NSW Health, ACT Health, HCF Foundation and the Commonwealth Department of Health. </span></em></p>What happens when you bring a state health minister face-to-face with her two main challengers, fronting a roomful of health experts, without any TV cameras to leap on any “gaffes” or stumbles?Andrew Wilson, Director, Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/382982015-03-23T19:17:19Z2015-03-23T19:17:19ZIn a tight NSW election, optional preferences could win the day<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75618/original/image-20150323-14606-1vp38g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Union-led campaigns across NSW are telling voters to put government MPs last on their ballot papers – a strategy that helped elect Labor in Queensland earlier this year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/NSWPowerSellOff/photos/pb.383490491758035.-2207520000.1427075509./748439171929830/?type=3&theater">Stop the Sell Off/Facebook</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the New South Wales Liberal Party’s official launch on March 23, Premier Mike Baird urged voters to <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/nsw-election-dont-elect-sneaky-labor-by-accident-asks-baird/story-fnsgbndb-1227273796028">“just vote one”</a> for his government, while warning against Labor’s “sneaky preference deals” with minor parties.</p>
<p>In contrast, Baird’s opponents are urging NSW voters to exercise their choice to number all the boxes on the lower house ballots, and <a href="http://www.usu.org.au/usucampaigns/energy-a-utilities/stop-the-sell-off/1108-put-the-liberals-last-it-s-where-they-put-you">“put the Liberals and Nationals last”</a>.</p>
<p>Both the key issues and the messages about how to vote in this NSW election have striking parallels with those that dominated January’s Queensland election. In part, that’s because the Labor and union anti-privatisation campaign against the Baird government in NSW was first honed in Queensland.</p>
<p>But it’s also because NSW and Queensland have the same optional preferential voting system, unlike other states. The way Queenslanders chose to exercise their preferences was crucial in the shock defeat of that state’s Liberal National government. </p>
<p>Could that happen again in NSW?</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YNBFVRarGWE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NSW Premier Mike Baird’s campaign launch – including urging voters to “just vote 1” from the 28:40 mark.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vote 1, number a few boxes, or number them all</h2>
<p>NSW and Queensland are the <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-queenslanders-in-danger-of-wasting-their-votes-35919">only Australian states</a> using optional preferential voting to elect their lower house MPs. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75575/original/image-20150322-14627-xik314.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75575/original/image-20150322-14627-xik314.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75575/original/image-20150322-14627-xik314.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75575/original/image-20150322-14627-xik314.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75575/original/image-20150322-14627-xik314.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75575/original/image-20150322-14627-xik314.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75575/original/image-20150322-14627-xik314.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75575/original/image-20150322-14627-xik314.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As this union-led Stop the Sell Off campaign Facebook post notes, ‘Preferences will be extremely important at this election.’</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a close election, the optional preferential voting system can not only affect the result, but also make it harder than in a federal election to use pre-election opinion polls to gauge what the two-party preferred vote will be.</p>
<p>Under optional preferential voting, a voter can indicate a preference for just one candidate, for two, three or more, or fill in every box, as I explained in greater detail in <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-queenslanders-in-danger-of-wasting-their-votes-35919">this article in The Conversation</a>. (Meanwhile, <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-south-wales-election-preview-38174">Adrian Beaumont’s</a> NSW election preview covers how to preference correctly in the upper house.)</p>
<p>In Queensland, the Newman government ran a strong “just vote 1” campaign, repeatedly claiming that votes for minor parties were <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s4158469.htm">“wasted votes”</a>. </p>
<p>That is incorrect, as under optional preferential voting a vote can be cast first for a minor party with subsequent preferences allocated to other candidates the voter supports – thus giving the voter the right to choose only candidates they support. Electoral educators, other parties and interest groups criticised that “wasted votes” claim.</p>
<p>In fact, the Newman government feared that exhausted votes for minor parties would give the ALP an advantage – and that proved to be the case. (A vote is “exhausted” when it is removed from the count because the candidates preferenced on the ballot have been eliminated from the count. You can read a <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/about_elections/voting_and_counting_systems/optional_preferential">more detailed explanation here</a>.)</p>
<p>At this year’s election, ABC election analyst Antony Green says Queensland saw a <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/why-the-baird-government-is-vulnerable.html">20% decline</a> in exhausted preferences, and a similar size increase in preference flows to Labor. Many of those <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/why-the-baird-government-is-vulnerable.html">preferences went to the ALP</a>, helping it to form a <a href="https://theconversation.com/final-queensland-election-results-labors-stunning-revival-37616">minority government</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/02/huge-shift-in-preference-flows-at-2015-queensland-election.html">Green has concluded</a> that the well-organised Labor and union campaign to “put the LNP last” was crucial in Queensland election result:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It looks like those preferences recommendations, and the decisions of voters themselves to number more squares, have been the difference between Labor winning the 2015 election and the LNP being returned … Preferences can still make a difference.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sQPgHnsBgM4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A NSW Nationals YouTube clip, encouraging its supporters to just vote 1.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vote 1 for privatisation, or preference against it?</h2>
<p>In the Queensland election, the LNP government staked its re-election strategy on an infrastructure program funded by privatising assets, despite the political backlash against its Labor predecessor’s plans for assets sales. </p>
<p>In the month before the election, most opinion polls showed that the Newman government was set to suffer a big swing, but still likely to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-31/queensland-election-newman-in-trouble-in-ashgrove-poll/6059330">hang on</a>. </p>
<p>In NSW, the polls are <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/nsw-election-liberals-mike-baird-beats-labors-luke-foley-polls/6339672">not as close</a> as they were in Queensland. And in contrast to Campbell Newman, Mike Baird’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-13/nsw-election-vote-compass-mike-baird-luke-foley-leadership/6302904">high personal popularity</a> is seen as one of the government’s strongest selling points.</p>
<p>But Baird has still been similarly “courageous” – as they used to say on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes_Minister">Yes, Minister</a> – by declaring <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/bairds-doordie-infrastructure-plan-there-is-no-plan-b-20150227-13r2wz.html">“there is no Plan B”</a> to fund many of his campaign promises without the government’s plan for partial privatisation of the power industry.</p>
<p>Most <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/poll-shows-mike-baird-set-for-victory-as-he-rallies-the-troops-at-campaign-launch-20150322-1m4vmt.html">polls</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-10/nsw-election-2015-vote-compass-privatisation-electricity-assets/6291254">the ABC’s Vote Compass</a> have shown the majority of NSW voters oppose privatisation. </p>
<p>However, the latest <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/poll-shows-mike-baird-set-for-victory-as-he-rallies-the-troops-at-campaign-launch-20150322-1m4vmt.html">Fairfax/Ipsos poll</a> shows there is less opposition when people are asked for their view on privatisation with the proceeds being used for infrastructure, with a result of 48% in support and 47% opposed.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, privatisation has given new Labor leader Luke Foley a central theme to run with, which does seem to have <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-10/nsw-election-2015-vote-compass-privatisation-electricity-assets/6291254">resonated</a> in many parts of the state, especially in <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/baird-needs-to-win-the-young-women-and-country-voters-20150322-1m5307">regional areas and with women</a>.</p>
<p>So just as in Queensland, the only question now is: come election day on March 28, will voters heed the “just vote 1” message, or will preferences prove crucial in deciding the next NSW government?</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/38298/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bronwyn Stevens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The way Queensland voters chose to exercise their preferences was crucial in the shock defeat of the state’s first-term conservative government. Could that happen again in this weekend’s NSW election?Bronwyn Stevens, Lecturer in Politics, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/390512015-03-23T02:34:02Z2015-03-23T02:34:02ZKey environment policy still unknown in the NSW election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75605/original/image-20150323-14639-ca67ks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NSW Labor has promised a Great Koala National Park to protect koalas, but what about more insidious threats to the environment? </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nickimm/12536363895">Nicki Mannix/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With less than a week to go until the New South Wales state election, there are still major concerns about what the election holds for the state’s wildlife and ecosystems. </p>
<p>NSW has nearly 300 <a href="http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/threatenedSpeciesApp/">threatened animal species</a> – including koalas, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-endangered-species-mountain-pygmy-possum-13149">pygmy-possums</a>, and a number of lesser known species such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-endangered-species-southern-corroboree-frog-16189">Corroborree Frogs</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-endangered-species-regent-honeyeater-11294">Regent Honeyeaters</a> – and more than 600 species of threatened plants. </p>
<p>Both major parties have made promises to save threatened species through <a href="http://nsw.liberal.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/FINAL-FOR-EXPORT-Save-Our-Species.pdf">more funding</a>, and the creation of <a href="http://act.nswlabor.org.au/labors_plan_for_our_environment">new national parks</a>. And Labor has released a <a href="http://act.nswlabor.org.au/labors_plan_for_our_environment">policy document</a> promising to “review and replace the Liberal government’s watered down biodiversity offsetting rules”. However, the government has said little on one policy reform that could pose a serious threat to NSW’s wildlife. </p>
<p>In December 2014, the Independent Biodiversity Legislation Review Panel released their <a href="http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/resources/biodiversity/BiodivLawReview.pdf">final report</a> on biodiversity legislation in NSW. Recommendations include cutting regulation and increasing the use of offsets that make it easier to clear native vegetation.</p>
<p>The trouble is, we don’t yet know what the government thinks of the review’s recommendations, and what they would do if re-elected.</p>
<p>While there are many good proposals in the review, there are also many that are <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/native-vegetation-act-environmental-groups-condemn-change-20141218-129z7k.html">controversial</a>, and the government should put its cards on the table before the election.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75608/original/image-20150323-14627-i2yu8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75608/original/image-20150323-14627-i2yu8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75608/original/image-20150323-14627-i2yu8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75608/original/image-20150323-14627-i2yu8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75608/original/image-20150323-14627-i2yu8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75608/original/image-20150323-14627-i2yu8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75608/original/image-20150323-14627-i2yu8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75608/original/image-20150323-14627-i2yu8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Critically endangered Mountain Pygmy Possums are found in the Australian Alps.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/australianalps/6954940609">Australian Alps/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A step to the right</h2>
<p>Some of the positive and relatively uncontroversial recommendations of the review include additional public investment in conservation, establishing a state-wide conservation prioritisation mechanism, improving the public’s knowledge of wildlife conservation, and improving plant community type classification.</p>
<p>However, the recommendations take a significant jump to the right of the political spectrum and many can be deemed quite controversial. </p>
<p>Taken as a whole, the review panel suggests reducing regulation governing land clearance, moving the approval process for land clearance on farms from the state to the local government level, and committing more broadly and deeply to market-based solutions for conservation issues.</p>
<p>More specifically, the review recommends repealing the <a href="http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/vegetation/nvact.htm">Native Vegetation Act 2003</a> and removing the “improve and maintain” standard for clearing native vegetation. Under the Act, clearing native vegetation can only be approved if it improves or maintains environmental outcomes at the site level.</p>
<p>The review panel suggests that this leads to little flexibility for farmers who often complain that the act is getting in the way of their business. </p>
<p>The suggested approach is to broaden the use of biodiversity offsets and apply offsets at the regional level. That is, a site could be cleared (or “degraded”) if this degradation is offset by improvements elsewhere in the region.</p>
<h2>The problem with offsets</h2>
<p>Offsets are themselves very controversial in conservation and derive from a particular economic and ideological paradigm that favours market-based solutions. </p>
<p>A biodiversity offset scheme, such as the <a href="http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/biobanking/">NSW BioBanking scheme</a>, creates a price for the use of wildlife, plants and ecosystems. </p>
<p>Developers, after first trying to avoid and then minimise impacts on wildlife, can offset the remaining impacts by purchasing credits on an open market. These credits have been created when someone else has preserved wildlife.</p>
<p>Theoretically, offset schemes make sense. However, the theory makes a number of economic <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/19114.html">assumptions</a> that don’t exist in the real world, including perfect information, zero transaction costs, an absence of market and political power, and regulators who are at arms-length. </p>
<p>And for the scheme to make environmental sense, the site being cleared and the offset site need to be identical, which is impossible. That’s why the Native Vegetation Act includes the condition that vegetation can only be cleared if it improves or maintains the standard of a site, rather than offsetting the damage elsewhere. </p>
<h2>Who makes the decisions?</h2>
<p>With the act repealed, decisions regarding land clearance would come under the jurisdiction of two local bodies. </p>
<p>First, local councils would be responsible for approving land clearance on previously uncleared land. </p>
<p>Second, “local land services” – local regulatory bodies made up of farmers and planning bureaucrats – would approve the existing management of native vegetation.</p>
<p>With many local councillors in regional areas being farmers themselves, both of these suggestions create a major conflict of interest.</p>
<h2>Pushing the ideology of the market</h2>
<p>Thus, the report, while undoubtedly consisting of many positive proposals, pushes a particular ideological line. This is the line that believes that market-based solutions can be applied to everything and that regulation of the more direct kind is simply stifling to business and therefore bad.</p>
<p>When applied to biodiversity conservation, this ideology increases risks. If the assumptions underlying the theory are not correct, wildlife, plants and ecosystems will suffer.</p>
<p>As an electorate, we deserve to know whether the government approves of the recommendations in the report. Only then can we make informed choices about our preferred government. </p>
<p>The government has said it would provide an official response <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/native-vegetation-act-environmental-groups-condemn-change-20141218-129z7k.html">before the March election</a>. With only a few days left before the March 28 poll, time is running out.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39051/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Perry is an unpaid academic associate of the Centre for Compassionate Conservation at UTS.</span></em></p>NSW has nearly 300 threatened animal species, including koalas and pygmy-possums. Yet we still don’t know the government’s plans in one area that could pose a serious threat to NSW’s wildlife.Neil Perry, Research Lecturer, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/391642015-03-22T19:17:35Z2015-03-22T19:17:35ZThousands of NSW election online votes open to tampering<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/76115/original/image-20150326-8716-1igpufe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Security experts discovered that the iVote practice server was vulnerable to tampering; after checking that the same weakness affected the real voting server, they alerted the authorities.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vanessa Teague and Alex Halderman</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>UPDATED 3:20PM AEDT: The NSW Electoral Commission has now <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/ivote-security-hack-allowed-change-of-vote-security-expert-says/6340168">publicly commented</a> on the security flaw uncovered by Dr Vanessa Teague and J. Professor Alex Halderman. But as the authors explain below, “we are concerned that the NSW Electoral Commission does not seem to understand the serious implications of this attack”. Read the rest of their response at the end of this article.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>If you’re one of the 66,000 people from New South Wales who voted in the state election using iVote between Monday March 16 and midday on Saturday March 21, your vote could have been exposed or changed without you knowing. </p>
<p>How do we know that? Because we uncovered a security flaw in the popular <a href="http://www.ivote.nsw.gov.au/">iVote</a> system that would have let us do exactly that, if we’d chosen to. That’s despite <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-04/computer-voting-may-feature-in-march-nsw-election/6068290">repeated assurances</a> from the New South Wales Electoral Commission that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>People’s vote is completely secret. It’s fully encrypted and safeguarded, it can’t be tampered with</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As we’ve been able to show, that’s not true. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75571/original/image-20150322-14627-1p3f6v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75571/original/image-20150322-14627-1p3f6v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75571/original/image-20150322-14627-1p3f6v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75571/original/image-20150322-14627-1p3f6v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75571/original/image-20150322-14627-1p3f6v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75571/original/image-20150322-14627-1p3f6v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75571/original/image-20150322-14627-1p3f6v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75571/original/image-20150322-14627-1p3f6v4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A screenshot demonstrating how a security flaw could have allowed two online security experts to intercept and change votes using the NSW iVote system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vanessa Teague and Alex Halderman</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We should stress that rather than do anything illegal or disrupt the <a href="http://www.votensw.info/">March 28 state election</a> result, we tested this security weakness only on our own practice vote at the iVote practice server. After checking that the same weakness affected the real voting server, we alerted the authorities late last week. We also waited until we could see the problem had been fixed before talking publicly about it.</p>
<h2>Less than a week to expose iVote’s vulnerability</h2>
<p>The problem we found was that the voting server had loaded some code from a third-party site vulnerable to the FREAK attack, a major security flaw that left Apple and Google devices vulnerable to hacking (you can read a recent Washington Post article <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2015/03/03/freak-flaw-undermines-security-for-apple-and-google-users-researchers-discover/">explaining the FREAK flaw</a>).</p>
<p>How did that global security problem affect iVote? For a longer, more technical explanation of what we did and found, <a href="https://freedom-to-tinker.com/blog/teaguehalderman/ivote-vulnerability/">read more here</a>.</p>
<p>The shorter version is that with less than a week of concerted effort, the two of us discovered that the FREAK flaw allowed us – or potentially anyone with the right technical knowledge – to intercept a NSW voter’s internet traffic, and insert different code into vulnerable web browsers. Many, but not all, browsers have been appropriately patched over the last week – <a href="https://freakattack.com/">this site</a> lets you check whether yours is still vulnerable.</p>
<p>We demonstrated that we could make the voter’s web browser display what the voter wanted, but secretly send a different vote to the iVote voting server.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75572/original/image-20150322-14639-1es63fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75572/original/image-20150322-14639-1es63fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/75572/original/image-20150322-14639-1es63fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75572/original/image-20150322-14639-1es63fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75572/original/image-20150322-14639-1es63fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75572/original/image-20150322-14639-1es63fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75572/original/image-20150322-14639-1es63fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/75572/original/image-20150322-14639-1es63fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Real hackers rarely leave such obvious clues – but online security experts testing the NSW iVote system used this Ned Kelly symbol.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vanessa Teague and Alex Halderman</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The iVote system does include a <a href="http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/voting/ivote/overview">vote verification process</a> for people who choose to vote online or by phone, where they can subsequently call an automated interactive phone line to double-check what vote the system holds for them. </p>
<p>However, that verification system could have errors or security vulnerabilities; we can’t tell you with any certainty either way, since there’s no publicly-available source code or system details. </p>
<p>Given the supposedly “fully encrypted and safeguarded” iVote system proved so vulnerable to attack, we certainly would not recommend people take any chances by voting online in the NSW election.</p>
<h2>The NSW online vote is globally significant</h2>
<p>The 2015 NSW election is Australia’s biggest-ever test of electronic voting, which has largely been limited to small trials in the past. The official predictions have been that <a href="http://www.governmentnews.com.au/2015/03/nsw-elections-ivote-set-for-six-fold-jump/">200,000</a> to <a href="http://www.cio.com.au/article/545546/nsw_electoral_commission_cio_says_ivote_system_will_ensure_counting_accuracy/">250,000</a> people would vote using iVote in this election.</p>
<p>And this NSW election already ranks as one of the world’s biggest online votes to date, on track to exceed the <a href="https://www.regjeringen.no/globalassets/upload/kmd/komm/rapporter/isf_internettvalg.pdf">70,090 Norwegians who voted electronically in 2013</a>, and perhaps even beat the <a href="http://news.err.ee/v/elections/953ac902-eb86-411a-92ce-ea2960c8c6d1">176,491 people who voted online in the 2015 Estonian election</a>. </p>
<p>In just its first week, even apart from our discovery things haven’t run smoothly. </p>
<p>Early voting using iVote opened at 8am on Monday March 16, and it will close at 6pm on election night, Saturday March 28.</p>
<p>On Tuesday March 17, the NSW Electoral Commission <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-17/nsw-election-online-voting-suspended-due-to-ballot-paper-error/6326106">suspended voting for six hours</a> after it turned out that two minor parties had been left off the “above the line” section of the NSW upper house online ballot paper. That problem, blamed on human error, was fixed – but not before <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-election-2015-19000-electronic-votes-considered-valid-despite-error-on-ballot-paper-20150318-1m21pi.html">19,000 votes</a> had already been cast.</p>
<p>Serious human errors do sometimes happen in elections, and they can affect <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/probe-launched-into-lost-wa-senate-ballot-papers/story-fn59niix-1226750519018">paper ballots</a> too. </p>
<p>Our concern about online voting – and specifically about the NSW iVote system – is that security flaws like the one we found last week are still too <a href="http://techpresident.com/news/wegov/25066/estonia-online-voting-system-not-secure">prevalent</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsws-online-gamble-why-internet-and-phone-voting-is-too-risky-37465">predictable</a>. </p>
<h2>NSW vs Washington DC’s approach</h2>
<p>Less than a fortnight ago, one of us (Dr Teague) wrote in The Conversation about the potential <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsws-online-gamble-why-internet-and-phone-voting-is-too-risky-37465">privacy and vote tampering</a> problems with iVote. That article reflected concerns expressed in a letter to the NSW Electoral Commission in 2013. Yet the commission has never responded meaningfully to those concerns, and also chose not to <a href="http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/abc-news-nsw/NC1501H069S00#playing">publicly comment</a> on the FREAK security flaw that we exposed. </p>
<p>However, that’s not the approach taken by electoral authorities elsewhere wanting to deliver trustworthy election results.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/rise-of-e-voting-is-inevitable-as-is-risk-of-hacking/article21311244/">in 2010</a>, the Washington D.C.
Board of Elections and Ethics invited a <a href="https://jhalderm.com/pub/papers/dcvoting-fc12.pdf">team of experts</a> from University of Michigan (led by Professor Halderman) to try to hack the district’s new online voting system. </p>
<p><a href="https://jhalderm.com/pub/papers/dcvoting-fc12.pdf">Within 48 hours</a>, the University of Michigan team had broken in, taken over the election server, added fictional movie and TV characters as candidates (including for mayor and the member of congress), changed every vote, and revealed almost every secret ballot. </p>
<p>The election officials didn’t realise their system had been hacked for nearly two business days. When they did, it was only because the hacking team left behind a musical “calling card”, changing the Thank You page that appeared at the end of the voting process so that it played the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF--ldYIBnM">University of Michigan fight song</a>.</p>
<h2>A note for NSW voters</h2>
<p>We hope there are no more exploitable security problems in iVote and that the rest of the NSW election runs more smoothly. </p>
<p>But since we’ve had no opportunity to inspect the server side code or systems, there’s no way to be sure. When you’re working on the internet, new vulnerabilities emerge all the time.</p>
<p>That’s why, if you want to be sure your vote counts in the NSW election, we recommend you stick with an old-fashioned paper ballot.</p>
<h2>An update from the authors</h2>
<p><em>3:20PM UPDATE:</em> Since publishing this article, this issue has been widely covered in by other news outlets, including on <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2015/s4202723.htm">ABC radio</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/ivote-security-hack-allowed-change-of-vote-security-expert-says/6340168">online</a>.</p>
<p>The NSW Electoral Commission’s chief information officer Ian Brightwell <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/ivote-security-hack-allowed-change-of-vote-security-expert-says/6340168">told the ABC</a> that there was a problem, but it had been fixed and the system was safe.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are confident however that the system is yielding the outcome that we actually initially set out to yield, and that is that the verification process is not telling us any faults are in the system.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While we are pleased that the NSW Electoral Commission rapidly made changes to iVote in response to our findings, we are concerned that it does not seem to understand the serious implications of this attack.</p>
<p>Before the commission patched the system, the problem could be exploited under realistic and widespread conditions, and the iVote system cannot prove that this did not occur.</p>
<p>The problem was a direct consequence of faulty design in the iVote system, particularly the decision to include code from an external source. Its effect was to allow an attacker to modify votes, which shows the NSW Electoral Commission’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-04/computer-voting-may-feature-in-march-nsw-election/6068290">past claim</a> that the vote was “fully encrypted and safeguarded [and] can’t be tampered with” to be false.</p>
<p>We had to demonstrate a breach with the practice system because breaching the actual iVote process carries a penalty of three years in gaol, according to the electoral commission’s website. Since the real system uses identical code, the real system would have been susceptible to the same attack.</p>
<p>The integrity of this NSW election now relies on iVote’s verification and auditing processes – but these provide only limited defence, at best. </p>
<p>The electoral commission’s security testing failed to expose the vulnerability we found, and may have also missed flaws in the server software, verification protocol, and auditing process. The commission has so far declined to make these critical components available for public scrutiny.</p>
<p><em>* You can listen to the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2015/s4202677.htm">ABC World Today program’s</a> coverage of this issue on March 23, which includes the NSW Electoral Commission response. Or read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39164/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Vanessa Teague receives funding from the Australian Research Council for work in electronic voting privacy. She is on the advisory board of Verifiedvoting.org. She worked on a voluntary basis for the Victorian Electoral Commission's electronic voting project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Prof. J. Alex Halderman receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the New America Foundation, and the University of Michigan. He serves on the advisory board of Verifiedvoting.org.</span></em></p>UPDATED 3PM: The NSW Electoral Commission has now publicly commented on the security flaw we uncovered. But we’re concerned that it does not seem to understand the serious implications of this attack.Vanessa Teague, Research Fellow in the Department of Computing and Information Systems, The University of MelbourneJ. Alex Halderman, Director, University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society; Morris Wellman Faculty Development Assistant Professor of Computer Science and Engineering, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.