tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/nsw-politics-580/articlesNSW politics – The Conversation2024-03-08T03:10:46Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2250832024-03-08T03:10:46Z2024-03-08T03:10:46ZAlbanese’s ratings surge in YouGov poll; Tasmanian poll suggests difficult to form government<p>A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48861-86-of-australians-support-the-right-to-disconnect">national YouGov poll</a>, conducted February 24 to March 5 from a sample of 1,539, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since an early February YouGov poll. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 32% Labor (steady), 15% Greens (up two), 6% One Nation (down two) and 10% for all Others (down one).</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese’s net approval jumped ten points to -6, with 50% dissatisfied and 44% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down two points to -10. For the first time since the Voice referendum, Albanese’s net approval is higher than Dutton’s. Albanese led Dutton by 48–34 as preferred PM (45–38 in February).</p>
<p>By 86–14, respondents supported Australians having a right to disconnect from work outside outside of hours. Dutton has said he would overturn Labor’s right to disconnect legislation if elected. </p>
<p>On this pledge, 35% said they were less likely to vote for the Coalition, 17% more likely and 48% no difference. These “more likely/less likely” to support a party given X questions usually exaggerate the issue’s salience.</p>
<p>In another encouraging national poll for Labor, the <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9476-federal-voting-intention-march-4-2024">Morgan poll</a> gave them a 53.5–46.5 lead, a 3.5-point gain for Labor since last week. Primary votes were 36.5% Coalition (down 1.5), 34% Labor (up 2.5), 13.5% Greens (up 1.5), 3.5% One Nation (down 1.5) and 12.5% for all Others (down one). This poll was conducted February 26 to March 3 from a sample of 1,679.</p>
<p>The large majority of both the YouGov and Morgan polls’ fieldwork was before the Dunkley byelection. If this byelection had an effect on voting intentions, it won’t be part of these polls.</p>
<h2>Dunkley byelection near-final result</h2>
<p>With almost all votes counted in the federal March 2 <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29778-210.htm">Dunkley byelection</a>, Labor won by 52.7–47.3, a 3.6% swing to the Liberals since the 2022 election. Primary votes were 41.1% Labor (up 0.8%), 39.3% Liberals (up 6.8%), 6.3% Greens (down 4.0%), 4.7% for independent Darren Bergwerf (up 0.9%) and 3.1% Animal Justice (up 1.0%).</p>
<p>The primary votes of both major parties, but especially the Liberals, benefited from the absence of the UAP and One Nation, who had a combined 7.9% in 2022. The Greens’ result was poor. </p>
<p>The swing to the Liberals was below the 6.1% <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-holds-dunkley-but-slumps-in-two-national-polls-liberals-lead-in-tasmania-224363">average swing</a> against the government in a government-held seat at a byelection. Owing to the loss of the sitting MP’s personal vote, government-held seats swing much more than opposition-held seats.</p>
<p>An early February <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Polling-Dunkley-Byelection-and-Stage-3.pdf">uComms poll</a> for The Australia Institute had given Labor a 52–48 lead in Dunkley. A mid-February <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/48747-dunkley-seat-poll-shows-liberals-lead-51-49-in-upcoming-by-election">YouGov poll</a> had given the Liberals a 51–49 lead.</p>
<h2>Tasmanian Redbridge poll: difficult to form a government</h2>
<p>The Tasmanian state election is on March 23. A <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/tas-libs-labor-sniffing-around-lambie-in-search-for-majority-20240304-p5f9q8">Redbridge poll</a> for The Financial Review, conducted February 16–28 from a sample of 753, gave the Liberals 33% of the vote, Labor 29%, the Greens 14%, the Jacqui Lambie Network 10% and independents 14%.</p>
<p>Tasmania uses the Hare Clark proportional representation system, with 35 total lower house seats elected in five seven-member electorates. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote or 12.5%.</p>
<p>Analyst <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/redbridge-says-its-multi-party-mess-as.html">Kevin Bonham’s seat estimate</a> from the Redbridge poll is 13–14 Liberals, 10–12 Labor, 4–5 Greens, 2–3 JLN and 2–6 independents. While the Liberals would be the largest party, it would be difficult for either major party to reach the 18 votes needed for a majority.</p>
<p>There were <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-holds-dunkley-but-slumps-in-two-national-polls-liberals-lead-in-tasmania-224363">two polls</a> taken in the first week of the election campaign that had the Liberals much better placed to form a minority government.</p>
<h2>NSW Resolve poll: Coalition support surges</h2>
<p>A NSW <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-trailing-coalition-for-first-time-in-two-years-20240301-p5f90u.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, presumably conducted with the federal Resolve polls in December and February from a sample of 1,035, gave the Coalition 38% of the primary vote (up six since November), Labor 34% (down two), the Greens 12% (down one), independents 12% (steady) and others 5% (down two).</p>
<p>Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until close to elections. The SMH article says “Labor is trailing the Coalition”, but the likely effect of preferences would give Labor about a 51.5–48.5 lead according to <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/03/06/resolve-strategic-labor-34-coalition-38-greens-12-in-nsw/">The Poll Bludger</a>. Resolve’s polls have usually been much better for Labor than other polls, but the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-steady-in-newspoll-but-down-in-resolve-its-tied-in-queensland-223853">February federal Resolve</a> poll had a slump for Labor.</p>
<p>Labor Premier Chris Minns had a 35–16 lead over the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier (35–13 in November).</p>
<h2>NSW Secularists’ national YouGov poll</h2>
<p>The Secular Association of New South Wales has sent me details of a national YouGov poll conducted for them. This poll was conducted February 15–21 from a sample of 1,087.</p>
<p>By 55–45, respondents said they were not aware that their state has its own constitution separate from the federal constitution. Those who said they were aware of their state’s constitution were asked if they had seen or read it. Just 13% said they had read their state’s constitution, which is 6% of the overall sample.</p>
<p>For the third and final question, voters were told that Australia has no formal recognition of separation of government and religion, then asked if they would approve or disapprove of a constitutional amendment to formally separate government and religion in their state.</p>
<p>Voters approved of this proposition nationally by 51–20. Smaller subsamples in the eastern seaboard states had approve leading by 48–21 in NSW, 48–22 in Victoria and 50–21 in Queensland. The history of referendums suggests caution, as often big poll leads for a proposal collapse before referendum day.</p>
<h2>US Super Tuesday confirms it’s Trump vs Biden</h2>
<p>I covered the March 5 United States Super Tuesday primaries for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/03/06/us-super-tuesday-primaries-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. Donald Trump had big wins, and will win the Republican nomination after Nikki Haley withdrew. Joe Biden also dominated the Democratic primaries. In national general election polls, Trump is usually ahead by low single-digit margins.</p>
<p>I also covered the February 29 United Kingdom Rochdale byelection for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/03/01/uk-rochdale-by-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. George Galloway, who has attacked Labour from the left for a long time, won after Labour’s candidate was disendorsed but still appeared on the ballot paper as the disendorsement was after the close of nominations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225083/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I have done paid work in the past for the NSW Secularists.</span></em></p>Two new polls also have Labor ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred measure.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2171872023-11-12T23:20:53Z2023-11-12T23:20:53ZLabor still far ahead in Resolve poll, in contrast to other recent polls<p>A <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-cut-support-for-labor-as-cost-of-living-concerns-mount-20231109-p5eius.html?btis=">federal Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted November 1–5 from a sample of 1,602, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (down two since October), the Coalition 30% (down one), the Greens 13% (up one), One Nation 7% (steady), the UAP 2% (steady), independents 9% (steady) and others 4% (up two).</p>
<p>Resolve does not give a two party estimate until close to elections, but an estimate based on applying 2022 election preference flows gives Labor a 57–43 lead, unchanged since October. While this poll was published today, it was taken over a week ago, before the November 7 <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2023/mr-23-30.html">interest rate rise</a>.</p>
<p>Resolve’s polls since the 2022 election have been far better for Labor than other polls. Other recent federal polls have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-labor-slump-to-worst-position-in-newspoll-since-2022-election-216819">last week’s</a> Newspoll and Redbridge poll that gave Labor respectively a 52–48 and a 53.5–46.5 lead, a 52–48 Labor lead in Morgan and a 48–46 Labor lead in a late <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">October Essential</a> poll including undecided voters.</p>
<p>While Resolve’s voting intentions are much better for Labor than other recent polls, their leaders’ ratings are not. On Anthony Albanese, 46% thought he was doing a poor job and 39% a good job, for a net approval of -6, down seven points since October. Albanese’s net approval was +27 after the May budget.</p>
<p>Dutton’s net approval improved 11 points since October to -4, his best net approval since the election and the first time in any poll Dutton has had a better net approval than Albanese. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 40–27, a narrowing from 47–25 previously.</p>
<p>The Liberals extended their lead over Labor on economic management from 35–33 to 34–27. On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals reversed a 31–27 Labor lead in October to take a 29–24 lead. These are the Liberals’ best results on these issues since the election. With 52% naming cost of living as the highest priority for their vote, this issue matters. </p>
<p>Voters are pessimistic about the economic outlook. In the next three months, 50% expect the economy to get worse and just 8% improve. In the next year, it’s 41% get worse and 23% improve.</p>
<p>By 60–19, voters said their income had not kept up with inflation over the past year. By 64–8, they expected inflation to get worse in the near future. By 65–9, they did not think interest rate rises are coming to an end.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll and additional questions from other polls</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan federal poll</a>, conducted October 30 to November 5 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9531-roy-morgan-update-november-8-2023">sample</a> of 1,371, Labor led by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 35% Coalition, 31.5% Labor, 13.5% Greens and 20% for all Others.</p>
<p>Voters in last week’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/cut-spending-taxes-to-curb-inflation-and-ease-living-expenses-says-newspoll/news-story/71f2a81154c9bfc77749a5a748bfbf0d">Newspoll</a> were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of five measures to help with cost of living.</p>
<p>Subsidising energy bills was most supported at 84% approve, followed by subsidising fuel prices (81%), cutting government spending (77%), giving tax cuts to individuals (73%) and giving cash payments to low-income families (56%).</p>
<p>In <a href="https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Vote-intention-Nov-2023.pdf">additional questions</a> from Redbridge, by 50–36 voters thought the Albanese government was not focused on the right priorities. By 50–30, they thought the Coalition was not ready for government.</p>
<p>Essential had questions on the Melbourne Cup that were released on Cup Day November 7 in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/07/melbourne-cup-2023-horse-race-field-broadcast-horses-australia-interest-day">The Guardian</a> from the previous <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/31-october-2023">national Essential poll</a> in late October.</p>
<p>On interest in the Cup, 11% said they had high interest (down four since 2022), 24% moderate interest (down seven), 27% low interest (up three) and 35% no interest (up seven). On betting, 13% regularly bet on horses and the Cup (down five) and 26% rarely bet on horses but make an exception for the Cup (down three).</p>
<p>On attitudes to the Melbourne Cup, 65% said it is a unique part of Australia’s national identity (down seven), 48% said it promotes unhealthy gambling behaviour (up three) and 36% said it normalises animal cruelty (up two).</p>
<h2>US off-year elections</h2>
<p>While the United States presidential election is in November 2024, there were some state elections on November 7. I covered the results for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/07/us-off-year-elections-live-2/">The Poll Bludger</a>. Democrats performed well in the headline races, holding the Kentucky governorship and gaining control of the Virginia legislature, while Ohio passed two referendums supported by Democrats.</p>
<p>However, the legislative elections were mediocre for Democrats, as they did worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. US polls show Biden struggling against Donald Trump, and these elections should not change our opinion of 2024.</p>
<h2>NSW Resolve poll: drop for both major parties’ primary votes</h2>
<p>A New South Wales <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-slides-as-greens-independents-make-ground-20231109-p5eiuo.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal October and November Resolve polls from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor 36% of the primary vote (down two since September), the Coalition 32% (down four), the Greens 13% (up four), independents 12% (down one) and others 7% (up three).</p>
<p>No two-party estimate was provided, but <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/11/12/resolve-strategic-labor-36-coalition-32-greens-13-in-new-south-wales/">The Poll Bludger</a> estimated a 56.5–43.5 Labor lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor <a href="https://theconversation.com/support-for-both-the-voice-and-labor-drop-in-latest-essential-poll-213350">since September</a>. Labor Premier Chris Minns held a 35–13 lead over the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier (41–14 in September).</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217187/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor still leads on two-party preferred, but is feeling the strain as cost of living pressures take hold.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133502023-09-19T05:13:16Z2023-09-19T05:13:16ZSupport for both the Voice and Labor drop in latest Essential poll<p>A majority of Australians have indicated they will vote “no” in the upcoming referendum on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament, according to a national <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/19-september-2023">Essential poll</a> conducted Sept. 13–17 from a sample of 1,135 people. </p>
<p>The poll gave the “no” side a 51–41% lead over the “yes” side, compared to a 48–42% lead two weeks ago.</p>
<p>On voter strength, 42% said they were a hard “no” (up one percentage point), 28% were a hard “yes” (down two points), 12% were a soft “yes” (steady) and 8% were a soft “no” (up one point). The figures don’t add up to the overall “yes” and “no” totals due to rounding.</p>
<p>Below is the updated 2023 Voice aggregated polls graph. Essential has been the best pollster for “yes”, but now even this poll is showing a 10-point national lead for “no”. In every poll conducted since June by all pollsters, support for the “yes” side has been declining steadily.</p>
<p>The polling indicates the Voice referendum is headed for a heavy defeat. I wrote in my article on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-records-first-net-negative-newspoll-approval-as-voice-support-slumps-further-212368">last Newspoll</a> that it was a blunder to hold this referendum as a standalone vote rather than with a general election, given the long history of failed referendums in Australia.</p>
<p>Large crowds at <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/thousands-gather-in-melbourne-cbd-for-walk-for-yes-rally-20230917-p5e593.html">weekend rallies</a> for the “yes” side do not imply the polls are wrong, as people who attend political rallies are very unrepresentative of the overall voting-age Australian population. Analyst Kevin Bonham has more in <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/09/australian-polling-denial-and.html">this long article</a> debunking “poll denial” themes.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-records-first-net-negative-newspoll-approval-as-voice-support-slumps-further-212368">Albanese records first net negative Newspoll approval as Voice support slumps further</a>
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<h2>Labor at post-election low in Essential’s voting intentions</h2>
<p>In Essential’s <a href="https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights">two-party estimate</a> that includes undecided voters, Labor led the Coalition by 49–45%, down from a 51–43% lead a fortnight ago. </p>
<p>This is the lowest Labor lead in Essential’s fortnightly polls since it started asking about voting intentions in December 2022. The previous lowest Labor lead was five points in March and July.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 32% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down two points), 8% One Nation (up one point), 2% UAP (steady), 8% for all others (up one point) and 6% undecided (steady). The drop for the Greens means fewer preferences for Labor.</p>
<p>On what was causing the rising cost of living, 49% of those polled thought businesses maximising profits for shareholders contributed more than wage and salary increases for workers, while 32% blamed workers’ salaries more.</p>
<p>On power in the workplace, 42% thought it tilted too much in favour of employers, 12% said it was too much in favour of workers, and 46% thought the balance about right.</p>
<p>A majority of respondents supported the three <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/03/employers-deliberately-underpaying-workers-to-face-million-dollar-fines-or-up-to-10-years-in-jail">proposed changes to workplace laws</a>, with </p>
<ul>
<li><p>79% backing a new offence for employers to knowingly underpay their workers</p></li>
<li><p>66% supporting the closure of loopholes to prevent employers from using labour hire workers to undercut full-time workers</p></li>
<li><p>and 54% supporting minimum rights and entitlements for gig workers.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In other Canberra news, there will be no double dissolution election over Labor’s housing bill after <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-14/housing-australia-future-fund-passes-parliament/102844098">it passed parliament</a> on Sept. 14 with Greens support after the two parties reached a deal, ending months of conflict.</p>
<h2>Other national polls</h2>
<p>In last week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan federal poll</a>, conducted Sept. 4–10 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9489-roy-morgan-update-september-12-2023">sample</a> of 1,382 people, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5%, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition from the previous week. Primary votes were 37% Coalition, 32% Labor, 13.5% Greens and 17.5% for all others.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://theconversation.com/voice-support-and-albaneses-ratings-continue-to-tumble-in-resolve-and-other-polls-212872">previously covered</a> the continued tumble in Voice support and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings from a national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that was conducted September 6–9 from a sample of 1,604 people.</p>
<p>In other questions <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/politician-qantas-lounge-freebies-earn-the-ire-of-voters-20230911-p5e3m4.html">related to Qantas</a> in that poll, 64% thought foreign airlines should be granted more flights to Australia to increase competition, while just 15% thought they should be limited in the national interest. </p>
<p>By a 69–17% margin, participants thought it unacceptable for politicians to accept free lounge memberships from Qantas.</p>
<p>Participants were also asked to give a positive, negative or neutral rating for each airline. More respondents had a negative view of Qantas (42%) than positive (26%), and a negative view of former Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce (54–6%).</p>
<p>Both Virgin Australia and Qatar Airways had higher positive ratings of 41% and 29%, respectively, than negative.</p>
<h2>NSW Resolve poll: Labor drops but still well ahead</h2>
<p>A New South Wales <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/honeymoon-over-as-nsw-labor-suffers-hit-to-primary-vote-20230913-p5e4dt.html">Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of 1,019 people, gave Labor 38% of the primary vote (down three points since July), the Coalition 36% (up four points), the Greens 9% (down one point), independents 13% (up two points) and others 4% (down one point).</p>
<p>No two-party estimate was provided by Resolve, but <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/09/14/resolve-strategic-labor-38-coalition-36-greens-9-in-nsw/">The Poll Bludger</a> estimated Labor would lead the Coalition by 54–46%, a 4.5-point gain for the Coalition since July. This is close to Labor’s 54.3–45.7% win at the March state election.</p>
<p>Labor incumbent Chris Minns maintained a 41–14% lead over the Liberals’ Mark Speakman as preferred premier (compared to 39–12% in July).</p>
<p>Respondents were also asked about a recent scandal involving Tim Crakanthorp, Labor MP and former minister for the Hunter, over revelations that his family owned several commercial properties in the Hunter region that he had not disclosed.</p>
<p>On the appropriate action, 48% thought Crakanthorp should be stood down and independently investigated, while 29% thought he should be disciplined by the party or parliament and 7% thought no action should be taken.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213350/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the national poll, 42% of respondents said they were a hard ‘no’, compared to 28% who said they were a hard ‘yes’.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2099762023-07-21T06:39:16Z2023-07-21T06:39:16ZVictoria’s Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed<p>A <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/support-for-victorian-government-and-premier-daniel-andrews-plunges-after-cancellation-of-commonwealth-games">Victorian Morgan SMS poll</a>, conducted July 19–20 – the two days after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced the 2026 Commonwealth Games would be cancelled – gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition, a huge 8.5-point gain for the Coalition since a May Morgan poll. The sample size was 1,046 people.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (up seven since May), 33% Labor (down nine), 12.5% Greens (steady), 10.5% independents (up 1.5) and 8.5% others (up 0.5). Support for independents is likely to be overstated as not all seats will attract viable independents at an election.</p>
<p>In a forced choice, voters disapproved of Andrews by 55–45% (compared to a 52.5% approval in May). This is the first time since becoming premier after the 2014 state election that Andrews has had a higher disapproval than approval rating in Morgan polls. Andrews led Liberal leader John Pesutto as better premier by 52.5–47.5%, a drastic reduction from his 64–36% lead in May.</p>
<p>By 58–42%, voters also supported the cancellation of the games. However, the 58% who supported this would have included voters who thought the government should never have offered to hold the games in the first place.</p>
<p>The plunge for Labor in this poll is likely due to the public perception the government has been incompetent in its handling of the games ordeal.</p>
<h2>Labor maintains huge lead in national Resolve poll</h2>
<p>In this week’s federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-approval-rating-lowest-since-election-but-still-well-ahead-of-dutton-20230717-p5dork.html?btis=">Resolve poll</a> for Nine newspapers, conducted July 12–15 from a sample of 1,610 people, Labor had 39% of the primary vote (down one since June), the Coalition 30% (steady), the Greens 11% (down one), One Nation 6% (steady), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (up one) and others 2% (steady).</p>
<p>Resolve does not publish a two-party estimate until close to elections, but an estimate based on 2022 preference flows gives Labor about a 58.5–41.5% lead over the Coalition, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since June. Resolve’s polls have been much better for Labor than others since the 2022 election.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 51% good (down two points) and 35% poor (<a href="https://theconversation.com/woeful-victorian-poll-for-state-coalition-victoria-and-nsw-to-lose-federal-seats-as-wa-gains-207628">steady</a>), for a net approval of +16, down two points. </p>
<p>Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved five points to -15. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 51–21% (compared to 53–22% in June).</p>
<p>On economic management, Labor led the Liberals by 35–31%, little changed from a 34–31% Labor lead in June. On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 31–24%, an increase from a 27–23% Labor lead in June.</p>
<p>By 51–37%, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/half-of-australians-on-financial-brink-as-living-costs-bite-20230717-p5dorj.html">voters also agreed</a> if they had a major expense of a few thousand dollars, they would struggle to afford it (46–41% disagreed with this premise in February). </p>
<p>Just 5% thought the economy would improve in the next month, though support was higher with longer time periods (28% for next year, 41% for next five years).</p>
<p>The survey respondents were told <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/majority-of-voters-believe-migration-intake-is-too-high-20230718-p5dp69.html">permanent migration into Australia</a> was about 160,000 per year before COVID, but fell to negligible levels in 2020-21, and that to make up for this, immigration is likely to reach 350,000–400,000 this year before falling to 320,000 next year.</p>
<p>On these new levels of immigration, 59% thought them to be too high, 25% said they were about right and just 3% too low. By 38–34%, voters supported increasing the minimum wage for temporary skilled visa holders from $53,900 to $70,000 a year.</p>
<h2>Federal Labor maintains lead in Morgan poll</h2>
<p>In this week’s <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/">Morgan weekly federal poll</a>, conducted July 10–16 from a <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9434-roy-morgan-update-july-18-2023">sample</a> of 1,401 people, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47%, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. This is the second successive 1.5-point gain for the Coalition in this poll. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 35.5% Labor, 35% Coalition, 12.5% Greens and 17% for all others. Analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1681554510425264128">Kevin Bonham</a> said Morgan’s respondent allocated preferences were unusually bad for Labor this week.</p>
<h2>Fadden byelection near-final result</h2>
<p>With nearly all votes counted in last <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29422-159.htm">Saturday’s federal byelection</a> for the Queensland seat of Fadden, the Liberal National Party defeated Labor by 63.4–36.6%, a 2.8% swing to the LNP since the 2022 election. </p>
<p>Primary votes were 49.1% LNP (up 4.5%), 22.0% Labor (down 0.3%), 8.9% One Nation (up 0.2%), 7.3% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 6.2% Greens (down 4.6%). Turnout is currently 71.5%.</p>
<h2>NSW Resolve poll: Labor holds big lead, but down since May</h2>
<p>A New South Wales <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/majority-still-liked-and-respected-berejiklian-but-one-third-changed-minds-after-corrupt-finding-20230720-p5dpum.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal June and July Resolve polls, gave Labor 41% of the primary vote (down three since May), the Coalition 32% (up one), the Greens 10% (up one), independents 11% (up one) and others 5% (steady).</p>
<p>Bonham <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1682206140715909121">estimated</a> a Labor two-party lead of 58.5–41.5% from these primary votes. Labor Premier Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman by 39–12% as preferred premier (compared to 42–12% in May).</p>
<p>Respondents in the poll were told the Independent Commission Against Corruption had found “serious corrupt conduct” concerning former Liberal Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s romantic relationship with a former MP. </p>
<p>However, by 51–25%, voters agreed they still liked and respected Berejiklian. By 40–34%, they agreed Berejiklian should not have resigned as premier based on the ICAC report.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209976/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time since becoming premier in 2014, more voters disapprove of Dan Andrews than approve of him in the Morgan poll.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2087562023-06-29T10:28:51Z2023-06-29T10:28:51ZGrattan on Friday: ICAC shows it has the power to break public figures, but doesn’t escape criticism itself<p>If then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison had had his way, Gladys Berejiklian would have run for the Sydney seat of Warringah, held by independent Zali Steggall, at last year’s election. </p>
<p>Imagine the situation Opposition leader Peter Dutton would be in now – after Thursday’s Independent Commission Against Corruption finding the former New South Wales premier had acted corruptly – if she’d agreed, and pulled off a very long-odds win against the popular Steggall. </p>
<p>Dutton might have been facing yet another byelection, on top of the current one in the Queensland seat of Fadden, which has been triggered by the resignation of former minister Stuart Robert. </p>
<p>Robert, as it happens, has been accused of misusing his position in relation to government contracts, allegations he totally denies, but which are being exploited by Labor in the July 15 contest. </p>
<p>Morrison wanted Berejiklian as candidate because she was a vote magnet; he dismissed ICAC as a kangaroo court. Some other Liberals, and many voters, couldn’t believe Berejiklian might have compromised her integrity. One line being put forth painted her as the victim of an unscrupulous man. Some people simply didn’t much care about the claims against her.</p>
<p>For many female voters, Berejiklian was the poster face for how high women could fly in politics. During COVID, her status soared as a leader who successfully juggled health and economic imperatives. In May 2021, the Australian Financial Review magazine proclaimed her “The Woman Who Saved Australia”. </p>
<p>But it had been clear in October 2020 when she gave evidence (as a witness) to ICAC, in which she revealed her secret relationship with ex-boyfriend and former member for Wagga Wagga, Daryl Maguire, that she had not followed proper standards of conduct. </p>
<p>The phone taps of their conversations, in which Berejiklian turned a deliberately deaf ear to Maguire’s dodgy dealings, were devastating. Her failure to disclose this personal relationship was inexplicable to those who thought they knew her well, including former Premier Mike Baird. Suddenly, she became a mystery to them. </p>
<p>It was, however, not until a year later that Berejiklian resigned, after ICAC turned its blowtorch directly on to her. She strongly maintained her innocence, and the NSW Coalition government lost what was probably its last chance of survival. </p>
<p>ICAC’s findings against Berejiklian are blunt and damning. It condemned as “serious corrupt conduct by breaching public trust” her intense efforts to ensure Maguire obtained the funding he sought for his electorate, while she failed throughout to disclose their personal relationship. </p>
<p>It also found she did not do her duty under the ICAC Act “to notify the commission of her suspicion that Mr Maguire had engaged in activities which concerned, or might have concerned, corrupt conduct”.</p>
<p>Despite the ICAC findings, many people are likely to remain sympathetic to Berejiklian. For them, she is not just someone who was successful as premier, but a very relatable person. </p>
<p>Even NSW Labor Premier Chris Minns said nothing in the report took away from Berejiklian’s “handling of the COVID emergency, which I still regard as excellent”. </p>
<p>In the wake of the ICAC report, Berejiklian was, as ever, publicly defiant. “At all times I have worked my hardest in the public interest. Nothing in this report demonstrates otherwise,” she said in a brief statement. Berejiklian, now in a senior position with Optus, doesn’t do contrition. </p>
<p>She is the third Liberal premier to be brought down by ICAC – the others were Nick Greiner (who set up ICAC and later had the finding against him overturned in court) and Barry O'Farrell (over an expensive bottle of wine). It is an extraordinary record. </p>
<p>ICAC itself has not emerged unscathed from the Berejiklian inquiry, with criticism in particular of the extremely long time it has taken to deliver its report. Minns has indicated he is open to reforms of ICAC, and will seek bipartisan support.</p>
<p>Notably, Minns also flagged public figures should not necessarily have to stand down while inquiries into their conduct run. “It shouldn’t happen in an automatic way. People have a right to have an investigation and the final findings submitted to the public and the parliament, before their political life has stopped or ended.”</p>
<p>Some critics believe ICAC’s conclusion on Berejiklian is too harsh. The argument is also being put that it leaves Berejiklian in limbo – condemned as “corrupt” but with no charges recommended. Former NSW treasurer and leading party moderate Matt Kean declared: “So it has taken ICAC two years to tell us that Gladys Berejiklian has not broken the law.”</p>
<p>The counter argument, however, is that conduct can be “corrupt” without actually meeting the standard of illegality, and that such findings by an anti-corruption body act as deterrents and protect the body politic.</p>
<p>By coincidence, the finding on Berejiklian has come just as the new federal National Anti-Corruption Commission, under Paul Brereton (of the Afghanistan war crimes inquiry), comes into operation on Saturday. We know a federal body is overdue; we can’t know what impact the NACC will have over coming years, except that there will be surprises. </p>
<p>Under the NACC’s act, a public official engages in corrupt conduct if they breach public trust, abuse their office, or misuse official information. The act catches a person who is not an official (for example, a contractor to government) who does something adversely affecting an official’s “honest or impartial exercise of powers”. In their detail, these provisions are very broad.</p>
<p>Bearing in mind the experience of ICAC and other anti-corruption bodies, safeguards have been built in by the government. The NACC (which starts with about 180 staff) will have fewer public hearings than ICAC. It will have these only in “exceptional circumstances and where it is in the public interest”. This restriction was strongly contested by those who argued more transparency was desirable.</p>
<p>Even with the safeguards, there are said to be some private concerns within Labor about how the NACC will work out, given how feral federal politics can become.</p>
<p>Aware of the criticism of ICAC, the new federal body will presumably be very cognisant of the need to do its work in a timely fashion. </p>
<p>It won’t be short of suggestions for its early investigations. Possible or likely referrals range from the allegations against Robert to the PwC affair, while former minister Linda Reynolds has said she will refer the government’s compensation payment to Brittany Higgins. </p>
<p>Robodebt has had a royal commission – its report will be out imminently – so there would be little point in the NACC redoing that investigation. </p>
<p>It will be completely up to the NACC what it decides to investigate and, mostly, we won’t know what it is doing until the late stage or end of an inquiry. </p>
<p>While the NACC has strong public support, the experience of ICAC indicates any anti-corruption body will inevitably, over the years, find itself at the centre of intense controversies. With the power to break public figures, the stakes in some investigations will be very high.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208756/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the National Anti-Corruption Commission starting its work, the experience of ICAC indicates any anti-corruption body will inevitably find itself at the centre of controversies.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2031382023-04-03T04:47:16Z2023-04-03T04:47:16ZIt’s not easy, but history shows minority government has worked in NSW before. Here’s what Chris Minns must do<p>Although Labor has returned to power in NSW, it will be in a minority government, with probably 45 seats, two short of a majority, to the Coalition’s 36 (assuming the Liberal Party wins the seat of Ryde, where it is currently ahead as counting continues).</p>
<p>Labor’s position could be further diminished as the government has to provide a speaker. The obvious strategy will be to offer the position to a crossbencher to maintain its numbers on the floor of the lower house. Independent MP for Lake Macquarie, Greg Piper, is a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-28/nsw-election-counting-results/102152726">likely</a> candidate, as he was appointed <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/key-independent-appointed-assistant-speaker-as-perrottet-woos-crossbench-20220215-p59wq9.html">assistant speaker</a> by the previous government.</p>
<p>Incoming premier Chris Minns has <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/department-heads-in-firing-line-as-unions-warn-of-damaged-relations-20230402-p5cxdi.html">said</a>: </p>
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<p>It’s always been the case, at least for the last 15 years, that the NSW upper house has been controlled by the crossbench and that will be the situation in the lower house, as well. So legislation will have to be navigated through those two parliaments but it’s not necessarily difficult or different from what’s been in place for the last two years.</p>
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<p>In fact, <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/roleandhistory/Pages/The-history-of-the-Council.aspx">no government</a> has had a majority in the Legislative Council since 1988, a situation that looks set to continue in the new parliament. </p>
<p>It is true that towards the end of its term, the Coalition government slipped into a minority position in the lower house, but it could count on the support of a former Liberal on the crossbench. Despite his optimistic prediction, Minns may find the situation he faces in the lower house more complex and difficult, particularly as he has a large legislative agenda to implement.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-long-history-of-political-corruption-in-nsw-and-the-downfall-of-mps-ministers-and-premiers-147994">The long history of political corruption in NSW — and the downfall of MPs, ministers and premiers</a>
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<h2>Fluid, complex and hard to predict</h2>
<p>There are 12 crossbenchers, ranging across the spectrum: Greens and progressives, disenchanted or disendorsed Liberals, ex-Shooters, other regional MPs. </p>
<p>The government will need crossbench votes to win divisions. Three sitting independents – Alex Greenwich, Joe McGirr and Piper – have already offered to support Minns on confidence and supply motions, which will give the government stability in office.</p>
<p>This accords with the principle that independents having the balance of power should support the party with the majority of seats. However, like the other crossbenchers, they will vote on other measures according to their assessment of merit.</p>
<p>It is tempting to divide the crossbenchers according to assumed left or right sympathies. Their voting pattern, in reality, will be more fluid, complex and harder to predict.</p>
<p>Of the three MPs combining to guarantee the government in office, for example, one is a progressive (Greenwich), the others are moderates. The crossbenchers may also band together on issues of common concern, such as procedural reforms to give them more influence in the House.</p>
<p>The government’s lack of control of the lower house means it will potentially operate in an entirely different way. </p>
<p>The government will have no assurance its legislative proposals will be passed unamended – or passed at all. It will not routinely be able to gag debate or silence opposition or crossbench MPs. After years of being dominated by the executive government, power has returned to the parliament.</p>
<h2>History shows it can work</h2>
<p>The most relevant precedent is the Legislative Assembly from 1991-95. After that election, the Coalition had 49 seats (48 after appointing a speaker) and Labor 46. Four independents held the balance of power in the 99-seat house.</p>
<p>In return for implementation of a <a href="http://www.cloverarchive.com/archive/issues/other/reform/charter/">charter of reform</a>, three of them – John Hatton, Peter Macdonald and Clover Moore – agreed to support the government on appropriation and supply bills and confidence motions, except where “matters of corruption or gross maladministration” were involved. </p>
<p>Otherwise, the unaligned independents were free to vote as they saw fit, which they certainly did.</p>
<p>The government was forced to negotiate regularly with the independents. It was a slow and sometimes tortuous process. The independents needed time to make their own assessment of proposals and consider the views of interest groups and the opposition. </p>
<p>Under this regime, committees were often established on legislation and other matters, whether the government liked it or not. Debate was unfettered. </p>
<p>In previous parliaments, governments were rarely, if ever, defeated in the lower house; that was not the case between 1991 and 1995.</p>
<p>Government bills were carefully scrutinised and, in some cases, heavily amended; in many instances, better legislation emerged. </p>
<p>The process may at times have been chaotic but the government usually got what it wanted, although it had to accept negotiation and compromise as the price.</p>
<p>Another NSW precedent for coping with a large crossbench is the upper house after the 1999 election. </p>
<p>The balance of power was held by <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/articles/Documents/the-declining-membership-of-the-nsw-legislative-/Journal%20article%20-%20Australasian%20Parliamenuncil%20Cross%20Bench%20and%20its%20Implications%20for%20Responsible%20Gover.pdf">13</a> independent and minor party members of the Legislative Council, ranging across the ideological spectrum.</p>
<p>It seemed a recipe for legislative chaos; in fact, it proved to be a relatively stable, even productive, period.</p>
<p>Much of the credit is due to treasurer and leader of the government in the Legislative Council, Michael Egan. He was a skilful parliamentarian and accomplished negotiator who had the ability to accommodate most of the various interests in the house. </p>
<p>His deputy, John Della Bosca, <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/roleandhistory/Documents/Transcript%20-%20The%20Hon.%20John%20Della%20Bosca%20-%20Oral%20history%20project%20interview%20-%20Monday%2012%20November%202018%20%5B%20corrected%20%5D.pdf">commented</a> perceptively:</p>
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<p>I think the idea of having a lot of different crossbenchers actually made it easier, even though in theory they were a block on the government’s program. Generally speaking, because there were so many of them, it was easier to negotiate proposals about amendments or not amending the legislation as proposed. You would think that the more crossbenchers there were, the more difficult it would be, but I think the more crossbenchers there are, in some ways it makes it easier.</p>
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<p>Della Bosca <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/roleandhistory/Documents/Transcript%20-%20The%20Hon.%20John%20Della%20Bosca%20-%20Oral%20history%20project%20interview%20-%20Monday%2012%20November%202018%20%5B%20corrected%20%5D.pdf">believes</a> better legislation resulted from negotiation with the crossbenchers: </p>
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<p>There were days when we were pretty frustrated with the crossbench, of course, and probably there were many days that they were very frustrated with us, but I think on the whole it achieved exactly that outcome. I do not think there was any legislation you just could not get through because of the crossbench. I do not think we ever brought anything in that did not eventually get passed, though sometimes in a highly modified form.</p>
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<p>To govern effectively, the Minns government needs to accept the crossbenchers have legitimate concerns that should be listened to. </p>
<p>Communication and compromise should be the new order. It may be a wild ride, but democracy is the potential beneficiary.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/itll-be-tough-for-perrottet-to-win-the-nsw-election-but-labor-wont-romp-home-either-198892">It'll be tough for Perrottet to win the NSW election. But Labor won't romp home either</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Clune does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Communication and compromise should be the order of the day in minority government. It may be a wild ride, but democracy is the potential beneficiary.David Clune, Honorary Associate, Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2011742023-03-20T19:23:06Z2023-03-20T19:23:06ZLabor is odds-on for a narrow victory in NSW election, but it is far from a sure bet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516234/original/file-20230320-24-gb9640.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca de Marchi/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A gambler would probably feel the odds favour a <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/nsw-politics/nsw-election-sworn-in-government-4578691">Labor win</a> at the upcoming New South Wales election. But, as Scott Morrison <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-hails-miracle-as-coalition-snatches-unexpected-victory-117375">proved in 2019</a>, underdog status is prized in politics. Favouritism brings its own challenges, especially when the game takes an unanticipated twist. In this setting, the wide path to victory can quickly become a narrow track to defeat.</p>
<p>NSW voters go to the booths on March 25 with Premier Dominic Perrottet seeking to lock in 16 years of Liberal-National incumbency. The Labor opposition under Chris Minns is <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-slides-in-a-federal-newspoll-nsw-polls-give-labor-a-modest-lead-200734">polling well</a>. Despite this, Perrottet isn’t playing to type.</p>
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<p>This campaign is recasting the state’s typically combative political culture. Peace has broken out. Major campaign promises, from both sides, are converging on a shared political centre. Be it <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/tolls-and-trains-sydney-transport-front-and-centre-for-minns-and-perrottet-20230212-p5cjvm.html">toll relief</a>, health infrastructure, energy vouchers or other rebates, only strategic nuances separate the two.</p>
<p>Funding commitments, too, are broadly on par. The Coalition’s “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/what-happened-to-the-bear-pit-this-nsw-election-is-a-bipartisan-love-in-20230310-p5cr3l.html">future fund</a>” promises education and housing co-investment to individuals, while Labor’s “education future fund” directly targets the schools system.</p>
<p>On public sector wages, neither side is promising increases. Both leaders will thin the ranks and freeze the pay of senior public servants. And Perrottet has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-rules-out-future-privatisation-in-major-coalition-shift-20230228-p5co7m.html">ruled out further privatisation</a>, ending nearly a decade of “asset recycling” and bringing the Coalition into line with Labor.</p>
<p>With commonality abounding, real difference is emerging on unanticipated terrain. The NSW cabinet’s decision to introduce <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-06/nsw-gambling-reform-agreement/101934094">cashless gaming</a> within five years is providing Perrottet a moral profile that typically takes time for a new leader to build. It also acts as a reset following revelations of his <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/not-above-the-law-nsw-premier-dominic-perrottet-to-be-referred-to-police-after-nazi-costume-revelation/ehlpplxts">Nazi costume</a> choice at his 21st birthday.</p>
<p>In contrast, Labor won’t back gambling reform, seemingly untroubled by the issue from a campaign standpoint. These divergent stances could weigh on undecided voters wondering what kind of a premier Minns might be. Would he stand up to powerful lobbyists? It’s not an insignificant question given <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-18/nsw-former-mps-charged-eddie-obeid-joe-tripodi-tony-kelly/101248938">Labor’s past</a> in NSW. It may be a factor in marginal electorates.</p>
<p>Several seats in western Sydney are shaping as tight contests. With roughly <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/content/dam/digital/images/centre-for-western-sydney/CfWS-Western-Sydney-Votes-2023.pdf">one-third of total votes</a> cast at the election to be lodged in Sydney’s west, there is no path to victory for the Coalition or Labor without the region’s support.</p>
<p>East Hills, which the Liberals hold by just 0.1%, is a campaign focal point. In an announcement confined almost entirely to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/WendyLindsayforEastHills/">social media</a>, the premier committed $1.3 billion to construct a hospital in the electorate.</p>
<p>Ordinarily, a hospital pledge would be a widely promoted commitment. Keeping it local may be a deliberate strategy to emulate isolated success at last year’s federal election. In the western Sydney seat of Lindsay, the federal Liberals <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/content/dam/digital/images/centre-for-western-sydney/Western-Sydney-Votes-2022-The-Results-CfWS.pdf">bucked the national trend</a> and secured a positive swing. Hyper-local, street-by-street campaigning fuelled that unexpected surge.</p>
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<p>Lindsay overlays the marginal NSW seat of Penrith, where <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/stuart-ayres-will-return-to-cabinet-if-coalition-wins-election-20230124-p5cf2j.html">former minister</a> Stuart Ayres is defending a margin of just 0.6%. Here, too, the Liberals are upending wider campaign tactics for a local pitch, with the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-18/gladys-berejiklian-election-showing-could-help-hinder-liberals/102106588">help of former premier</a> Gladys Berejiklian.</p>
<p>Continuing his moral stance, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-and-minns-square-off-in-election-debate-20230315-p5cs78.html">Perrottet endorsed</a> the Independent Commission of Corruption’s investigation of her and continues to disavow her it’s “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-pledges-to-publish-data-to-track-election-promise-spending-20230309-p5cqur.html">not illegal</a>” rationale for pork-barrelling.</p>
<p>Other factors ramp up the unpredictability. The new seat of Leppington – nominally Labor (1.7%) – takes in many highly mortgaged areas of Campbelltown, Liverpool and surrounds. The pace of housing development has far <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/there-s-50-000-voters-in-this-new-sydney-seat-this-is-what-they-want-20230310-p5cr0n.html">eclipsed the construction</a> of education, health and transport links.</p>
<p>Similar growing pains are evident in electorates like Riverstone, where existing services are <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/here-s-what-s-missing-everything-no-schools-and-no-services-but-houses-keep-going-up-20221012-p5bp7o.html">unable to cope</a> with surging housing estates. Labor is, accordingly, promising to address these challenges, committing to a range of investments such as a <a href="https://www.nswlabor.org.au/sydney_s_north_west_deserves_a_full_service_public_hospital">$700 million hospital</a> for Rouse Hill.</p>
<p>The retirement of several senior Liberal members brings additional opportunities for Labor in key seats. Kevin Connolly in Riverstone and Geoff Lee in Parramatta are departing, along with cabinet members David Elliott, Brad Hazzard and Rob Stokes.</p>
<p>Stokes’ seat of Pittwater is among a clutch of northern Sydney electorates facing challenges by independent candidates. However, a repeat of the federal “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-teal-steal-independent-candidates-rock-the-liberal-vote-183024">teal wave</a>” is unlikely, given the optional flow of preferences, and <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/nsw-budget-puts-women-at-heart-of-investment-165-billion-support">mitigating budget measures</a> from Treasurer Matt Kean with a focus on women and sustainability.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-antony-green-professor-andy-marks-and-ashleigh-raper-on-the-nsw-election-201957">Politics with Michelle Grattan: Antony Green, Professor Andy Marks and Ashleigh Raper on the NSW election</a>
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<p>In the regions, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-18/mining-agriculture-and-jobs-in-upper-hunter-election/102097180">transition to clean energy</a> is challenging the Nationals’ hold on the Upper Hunter, while the retirement of Liberal Shelley Hancock has put the seat of South Coast in the frame for Labor. And the Nationals’ grip on the bellwether electorate of Monaro will be closely watched, with former Labor representative <a href="https://citynews.com.au/2023/whans-number-one-on-the-monaro-ballot-paper/">Steve Whan</a> making a comeback.</p>
<p>This is an unusual election. Conventional analysis – and the bookies – suggest a Labor win, likely in minority government. But the Coalition are rolling the dice in narrowly targeted areas and on atypical issues. </p>
<p>While the heat has gone out of NSW politics, many voters will struggle to make sense of the peace. Others are understandably sceptical it will last.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite being in power for 12 years, Dominic Perrottet’s government is making an unusual pitch for re-election and giving Chris Minns’ Labor opposition a run for its money.Andy Marks, Pro Vice-Chancellor, Strategy, Government and Alliances, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1988922023-02-02T19:16:21Z2023-02-02T19:16:21ZIt’ll be tough for Perrottet to win the NSW election. But Labor won’t romp home either<p>At the New South Wales election on March 25 a 12-year-old Coalition government will be seeking re-election.</p>
<p>Hoping to return as premier is Liberal leader Dominic Perrottet – a political conservative and devout Catholic with seven children, who was this week forced to <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/sydney-schools-linked-to-conservative-catholic-group-opus-dei-investigated-over-broad-curriculum-concerns/0zck5hb4y">respond</a> to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-30/purity:-an-education-in-opus-dei/101908488">allegations aired on Four Corners</a> about curriculum concerns at a Sydney school linked to Catholic group Opus Dei. Perrottet <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/not-a-crime-to-be-catholic-perrottet-defends-faith-as-former-school-comes-under-fire-20230130-p5cgkd.html">attended</a> Redfield College, one of the schools featured in the the ABC report.</p>
<p>It is just the latest headache for Perrottet, leader of a government whose 12-year term in office has only been exceeded in NSW by Labor from 1941-65 and 1995-2011. </p>
<p>Long-serving governments inevitably face the charge they are tired, worn-out and bereft of new ideas. The newly elected Albanese government has been a breath of fresh air at the federal level across a range of policy areas. </p>
<p>The Perrottet government, by contrast, is showing signs of having been in office too long: disunity, lack of discipline, inferior quality personnel, lack of vision.</p>
<p>In short, this will be a tough election for Perrottet to win.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/berejiklian-says-maguire-was-part-of-her-love-circle-but-was-not-significant-enough-to-declare-will-this-wash-with-icac-170860">Berejiklian says Maguire was part of her 'love circle' but was not significant enough to declare – will this wash with ICAC?</a>
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<h2>A succession of short-term premiers</h2>
<p>One way of rejuvenating a government is through a new leader, who sometimes brings the prospect of renewal. However, replacing a capable, well-regarded leader with a neophyte can bring electoral danger.</p>
<p>In NSW, for example, Unsworth after Wran and Fahey after Greiner were defeated the first time they faced the voters. Keneally lost the 2011 election after a brief, tumultuous term, bringing to an end the ALP era dominated by Carr’s ten-year premiership.</p>
<p>The NSW Coalition government is unusual in that it has had a succession of relatively short-term premiers: Barry O’Farrell (2011-14), Mike Baird (2014-17), Gladys Berejiklian (2017-21), Dominic Perrottet (2021 - present). </p>
<p>Each of the first three won an election and contributed significantly to the government’s longevity.</p>
<p>O’Farrell established the governmental road map that emphasised careful planning and avoidance of hasty, politically-motivated decisions. But caution did not preclude achievement; there were major reforms in economic management, infrastructure, and the public sector.</p>
<p>However, O’Farrell resigned prematurely after it was revealed he had inadvertently misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) over the gift of a bottle of wine.</p>
<p>Baird was more of a technocrat, strongly interested in economic management. He also dealt with ICAC’s serial slaughter of Liberal MPs and won the 2015 election with an unappealing policy of electricity privatisation. </p>
<p>He left office with the NSW economy booming, the public finances in good shape and a massive infrastructure program underway.</p>
<p>Berejiklian will be remembered for her resilience, crisis management skills, and administrative competence. In 2019 she became the first female NSW premier to win a general election but resigned in December 2021 over an ICAC investigation into her relationship with discredited former MP <a href="https://theconversation.com/berejiklian-says-maguire-was-part-of-her-love-circle-but-was-not-significant-enough-to-declare-will-this-wash-with-icac-170860">Daryl Maguire</a>.</p>
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<p>Against the odds, Perrottet established himself as a trustworthy if dorky premier. Even the leaking by factional rivals of the fact he wore a Nazi uniform at his 21st birthday party didn’t seem to damage him too much.</p>
<p>The great irony is many expected Perrottet to be an unpopular premier who would drag the government down. In fact, the behaviour of members of his government has dragged his electoral prospects down.</p>
<h2>A series of unfortunate events</h2>
<p>Virtually nothing has gone right for Perrottet. Damaging revelations about the short-lived appointment of former Nationals leader John Barilaro as senior trade and investment commissioner in the Americas led to the resignation of deputy Liberal leader and minister for trade, Stuart Ayres.</p>
<p>On July 20, an ICAC investigation <a href="https://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/2022-media-releases/icac-finds-member-for-drummoyne-john-sidoti-mp-corrupt">found</a> former Liberal MP for Drummoyne, John Sidoti, had engaged in serious corrupt conduct. </p>
<p>On August 5 Perrottet <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-31/minister-eleni-petinos-sacked-after-anonymous-staffer-complaint/101286930">sacked</a> a minister, Eleni Petinos, over bullying allegations.</p>
<p>There was bitter <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/send-a-boy-in-to-do-a-man-s-job-elliott-launches-fresh-attack-on-kean-20220814-p5b9qm.html">rivalry</a> between Transport Minister David Elliott and Treasurer Matt Kean, who indulged in unrestrained public criticism of each other. Relations between Kean and Perrottet, who had been long-term allies, became strained.</p>
<p>Perrottet tried to refute allegations about the Liberal party’s lack of women candidates by replacing three incumbent male upper house members with women. But the arrangement almost fell apart when the Liberal factions, who had not been consulted by their leaders, revolted. A face-saving deal was patched together at the last minute, involving the replacement of one of the proposed female candidates.</p>
<p>To top it off, the government introduced legislation about the clearing of native vegetation on private land that it was forced to abandon after vehement protests from environmentalists and its own backbench.</p>
<h2>The teal threat</h2>
<p>The NSW government faces challenges in safe seats on Sydney’s north shore from “teal” and independent candidates hoping to replicate their counterparts’ federal success.</p>
<p>Although there will probably be a groundswell of support, particularly given the lacklustre nature of some Liberal candidates, the optional preferential voting system will make their task difficult, as it did in Victoria.</p>
<p>All the federal “teals” who took seats from Liberals came second on first preferences and won on a favourable distribution of preferences. NSW, by contrast, has an optional rather than compulsory preferential system, which means many voters will just vote one.</p>
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<h2>No easy win for Labor</h2>
<p>That’s not to say Labor will romp home. The ALP needs a high 6% swing to form majority government, although a hung parliament is a <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pendulum-for-the-2023-nsw-election/">distinct possibility</a>. </p>
<p>Experience shows voters are very reluctant to change government unless they have faith in the alternative: the “time for a change” vote competes with the “fear of change” vote.</p>
<p>Opposition leader Chris Minns is plausible and presentable – but is that enough? A Resolve <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-in-election-winning-lead-but-perrottet-preferred-premier-20230124-p5cf5o.html">poll</a> showed him slightly behind Perrottet as preferred premier, although the ALP was ahead on the primary vote – 37% to 34%. </p>
<p>Given the terrible lead up to the election Perrottet has had, this must be a disappointing result for Labor. Previous opposition leaders who defeated long-term governments, such as Neville Wran, Bob Carr and Barry O’Farrell, were aggressive political carnivores. Minns comes across as a mild herbivore. </p>
<p>From here, Minns must go hard on the government over its mistakes, divisions and scandals. At the same time, he needs to outline convincing policies and persuade the voters that life under his leadership will be an improvement.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/stadiums-bushfires-and-a-pandemic-how-will-gladys-berejiklian-be-remembered-as-premier-169096">Stadiums, bushfires and a pandemic: how will Gladys Berejiklian be remembered as premier?</a>
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<p><em>This article has been updated to clarify that Kristina Keneally did not immediately succeed Bob Carr, and to further clarify the details around the teals’ election victories.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Clune does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As the NSW election looms, the Perrottet government is showing signs of having been in office too long. But that’s not to say Labor will romp home.David Clune, Honorary Associate, Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1910652022-09-27T02:08:47Z2022-09-27T02:08:47ZLabor seizes big lead in two New South Wales polls six months before election<p>The New South Wales state election will be held in six months, in March 2023. A Newspoll, conducted September 19-22 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 54-46 lead (it was 52.0-48.0 to the Coalition at the March 2019 election). Primary votes were 40% Labor (33.3% at the last election), 35% Coalition (41.6%), 12% Greens (9.6%) and 13% for all others (15.5%).</p>
<p>NSW Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet had ratings of 47% satisfied, 41% dissatisfied, while Labor leader Chris Minns was at 42% satisfied, 27% dissatisfied. Perrottet led by 39-35 as better premier. Newspoll figures are from <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/24/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-new-south-wales/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-secures-election-winning-lead-as-voters-abandon-the-coalition-20220923-p5bkg4.html">NSW Resolve poll</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of 1,170, gave Labor 43% of the primary vote (up nine since February), the Coalition 30% (down seven), the Greens 10% (up two), the Shooters 2% (steady), independents 10% (down three) and others 5% (down one).</p>
<p>Two party estimates aren’t given by Resolve until near elections, but with a 13-point primary vote lead over the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, Labor is in a dominant position in this poll. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/24/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-new-south-wales/">Poll Bludger estimated</a> a 60-40 Labor two party margin.</p>
<p>Despite the blowout lead for Labor, the preferred premier measure was tied at 28% each between Perrottet and Minns (32-29 to Minns in February).</p>
<p>Independent support was at 10% in the NSW poll and 12% in the Victorian Resolve poll below. These figures are very likely to be too high, as Resolve is currently asking for an independent in all seats. Once candidate nominations for the election close, Resolve will only ask for independents in seats where a viable independent is contesting.</p>
<p>These two polls are the best results for NSW Labor since they won the 2007 state election. There has been a large swing to Labor since the previous Resolve poll in February, probably somewhat owing to the scandals around former Nationals leader John Barilaro.</p>
<p>The Resolve poll is likely to be a Labor-favouring outlier, but Newspoll also has Labor well ahead. Labor has made large gains in NSW polls since early this year.</p>
<p>I would expect the federal Labor government to drag down state Labor parties, but this isn’t happening so far. Federal Labor is still at “honeymoon” poll ratings, while the NSW Coalition government is nearly 12 years old.</p>
<h2>Victorian Resolve poll: Labor way ahead</h2>
<p>The Victorian election is on November 26. Primary votes in a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-heading-for-danslide-2-as-voters-turn-away-from-guy-s-liberals-20220921-p5bjrc.html">state Resolve poll</a> for The Age were 42% Labor (up five since April), 28% Coalition (down five), 12% Greens (up two), 12% independents (up one) and 6% others (down three).</p>
<p>Two party estimates aren’t given by Resolve until closer to elections, but with a 14-point primary vote lead over the Coalition and 12% for the Greens, Labor is in a dominant position in this poll. The <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/23/resolve-strategic-labor-42-coalition-28-greens-12-in-victoria/">Poll Bludger’s estimated</a> two party was 60-40 to Labor.</p>
<p>Incumbent Labor Premier Daniel Andrews led the Liberals’ Matthew Guy by 46-28 as preferred premier (48-31 in April). This poll would have been conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of about 1,100.</p>
<p>The Poll Bludger said Labor was down one point on the 2018 lower house result on primary votes in this Resolve poll, while the Coalition was down seven. If this result were to be applied to the upper house, it would likely be a disaster for the Coalition under group voting tickets, as they would win few seats on filled quotas, and be vulnerable to preference snowballs.</p>
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<h2>Republic support slumps in federal Resolve poll, but Indigenous Voice has 64% support</h2>
<p>In the federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that I <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-labors-lead-in-resolve-poll-drops-from-honeymoon-heights-labor-winning-easily-in-victoria-190415">covered previously</a>, support for <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/support-for-australian-republic-drops-following-death-of-queen-elizabeth-ii-20220920-p5bjgj.html">Australia becoming a republic</a> slumped from 54-46 in favour in January, to 54-46 opposed. This was a forced choice question.</p>
<p>On whether to hold a referendum on becoming a republic, 32% wanted to wait until after further consideration of King Charles III, 30% didn’t want a vote at all, and 21% wanted a vote as soon as possible.</p>
<p>Queen Elizabeth II was rated good by 75% and poor by just 5%.</p>
<p>For his three years as governor-general, David Hurley was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%. About 45% thought Charles III would perform well, and 14% badly.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-labors-lead-in-resolve-poll-drops-from-honeymoon-heights-labor-winning-easily-in-victoria-190415">Federal Labor's lead in Resolve poll drops from 'honeymoon' heights; Labor winning easily in Victoria</a>
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<p>In a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-the-voice-but-there-s-doubt-over-what-they-re-backing-20220923-p5bklx.html">proposed referendum</a> on establishing an Indigenous Voice to parliament, voters would support it by a 64-36 margin nationally. This result was based on both the August and September Resolve polls for a combined sample of 3,618.</p>
<p>This was done to have sizeable samples for each state, since a successful referendum requires majorities in four of the six states as well as overall. Support for the Voice was lowest in Queensland (59-41 in favour).</p>
<p>About 45% thought the Voice should take priority over the republic, while 27% thought the republic should be prioritised. And 24% said the Voice should only be about issues relating to Indigenous Australians, 26% about all issues and policy areas, and 22% didn’t support a Voice.</p>
<p>Around 75% said they were aware of the campaign for an Indigenous Voice. By 43-33, voters thought it unlikely the Voice would close the gap on issues such as health.</p>
<h2>Morgan poll: federal Labor leads by 54.5-45.5</h2>
<p>In last week’s Morgan <a href="https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9119-weekly-update-20-september-22">weekly update video</a>, federal Labor led by 54.5-45.5 from polling conducted September 12-18, a one point gain for Labor since the previous week.</p>
<p>This is Labor’s biggest lead in Morgan since the federal election.</p>
<h2>Far-right wins Italian election</h2>
<p>I covered Sunday’s Italian election for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/25/italian-election-live/">The Poll Bludger</a>. The right coalition easily won majorities in both houses of the Italian parliament. Within that coalition, two far-right parties dominated. Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the Brothers of Italy, will be Italy’s first woman prime minister and first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini.</p>
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<p>The article also covers next Sunday’s first round of the Brazilian presidential election, which the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is expected to lose to former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or “Lula”. If nobody wins at least 50% next Sunday, there will be an October 30 runoff.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A recent NSW Resolve poll gave Labor 43% of the primary vote, and the Coalition just 30%, though the major party leaders were tied for preferred premier.Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist), The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1888222022-08-16T11:06:18Z2022-08-16T11:06:18ZBarilaro report fails to put NSW government integrity crisis to rest<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479346/original/file-20220816-2787-n4n4ay.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Bianca de Marchi</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It took George Orwell just one line to describe a <a href="https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/books-by-orwell/nineteen-eighty-four/">political dystopia</a>: “It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.” </p>
<p>In contemporary NSW politics, it seems, it takes two inquiries, multiple press conferences, rolling media coverage, and a ministerial resignation.</p>
<p>At 57 pages, the <a href="https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/assets/dpc-nsw-gov-au/publications/Trade-Commissioner-to-Americas-employment-process-inquiry-listing-2038/Report-of-the-section-83-inquiry.pdf">Ernst & Young report</a> into a senior NSW government trade appointment to the Americas takes only five pages to get to the heart of the matter. Then it takes a different direction.</p>
<p>“Public servants and the public alike”, states the report’s author, former public servant, Graeme Head, “should be able to have confidence that Public Service appointments are being made in the way they are intended to be.” He is right. Confidence is the central consideration.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-fast-politics-has-left-the-nsw-government-staring-into-the-electoral-abyss-188429">How 'fast' politics has left the NSW government staring into the electoral abyss</a>
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<p>The trouble is, NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet looks to have afforded Head little latitude to directly scrutinise the issue the author calls out; specifically, the matter of public confidence. The public’s voice is relatively silent through the remainder of the report. This is essentially because the document’s scope is largely confined to examining the rules of the game instead of the real question: the spirit in which it is played.</p>
<p>This is not to suggest the process and legality of senior public service appointments should not be closely scrutinised. The EY report does that. The outcome then is as expected. Put simply, in the same way a plumber lays pipes, governments should follow process. That it is necessary for a report to spell that fact out to a 12-year-old administration is telling.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479381/original/file-20220816-11-xhzq0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has given the report’s authors little latitude to examine the central issue: public confidence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bianca de Marchi/AAP</span></span>
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<p>Head recommends the relevant act be amended to ensure senior public servants are “not subject to the direction of a Minister in respect of any of their employer functions”.</p>
<p>The ministerial code of conduct, he adds, should also be modified to prevent “a minister from seeking to influence” a public servant “in respect of their employer functions”. Resorting to law and codified minutia to protect fundamental public service principles is hardly cause for public confidence. It is a sign something is very wrong.</p>
<p>The provisions the report recommends, while entirely logical as regulatory responses, do not address the root of the apparent transgressions: culture. Political culture in NSW has reached a juncture where transgressions that seem obvious to all are invisible to those with the clearest vantage point.</p>
<p>Asked about concerns over the appointment in June, the premier <a href="https://amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/perrottet-distances-himself-from-barilaro-s-appointment-to-new-york-role-20220622-p5avtr.html">responded</a>:</p>
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<p>I’m still unaware of what the substantive issue here is.</p>
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<p>Even without foreseeing questions over process, or a willingness to acknowledge the political optics, the premier’s inability to gauge possible public apprehension over of the appointment is interesting.</p>
<p>Quizzed on the same matter, former deputy premier and the successful candidate for the since relinquished position, John Barilaro, <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/25/nsw-police-investigate-altercation-john-barilaro-camera-operator-manly-sydney-street">maintained</a> he followed the process. Similarly, former minister and deputy NSW Liberal leader, Stuart Ayres, also <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-01/ive-not-done-anything-wrong:-embattled-nsw-trade-minister/13997612">insisted</a> he had “done nothing wrong”.</p>
<p>Others close to the process appear more capable of grasping the challenges at hand. Asked how the candidate’s appointment was confirmed before the selection committee’s report was signed, Investment NSW head and departmental secretary, Amy Brown <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/dominic-perrottet-to-reveal-stuart-ayres-future-ahead-of-investment-nsw-boss-evidence-at-parliamentary-hearing-20220802-p5b6oi.html">remarked</a> the “high degree of disorganisation” surrounding the process was “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/which-one-s-which-the-blurred-lines-between-ministers-and-their-top-public-servants-20220805-p5b7p7.html">not ideal</a>”.</p>
<p>The candidate who was reportedly initially offered the trade role, Jenny West, stated the offer was then rescinded as it would instead be “<a href="https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101226376">a present for someone</a>”. West added she was told she was “<a href="https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101226376">an extraordinary performer</a>” on having the offer withdrawn.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-government-slides-further-into-trouble-as-perrottet-struggles-for-clear-air-188018">NSW government slides further into trouble as Perrottet struggles for clear air</a>
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<p>Commenting on the planned political management of anticipated criticism of the eventual trade role appointment, public service commissioner Kathrina Lo <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/had-i-known-what-i-know-now-lo-felt-used-in-barilaro-appointment-20220805-p5b7kn">remarked</a>, “I should not be viewed as cover for a recruitment process”.</p>
<p>The most salient observation came from Premier and Cabinet head Michael Coutts-Trotter, who reportedly texted that the establishment of an inquiry into the appointment was “<a href="https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/this-isn-t-great-private-text-messages-revealed-amid-barilaro-fallout-20220810-p5b8pw">utterly predictable</a>”. Indeed.</p>
<p>Predictably, the release of the EY report will not put an end to questions of integrity, culture and accountability. Because the right questions are not being asked. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the implications of recently released <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/Independent-Review-into-bullying,-harassment-and-sexual-misconduct-at-the-Parliament-of-NSW.aspx">Broderick report</a> into bullying, harassment and sexual misconduct within NSW Parliament are just emerging. And at the federal level, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/16/scott-morrison-five-more-secret-ministries-minister-portfolio-ministry-including-treasury-home-affairs">transparency of ministerial appointments</a> is under scrutiny over revelations of former Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s multiple portfolio assignations.</p>
<p>The clock is striking thirteen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The release of an independent report into the New York trade appointment will not put an end to questions of integrity, culture and accountability - because the right questions are not being asked.Andy Marks, Pro Vice-Chancellor, Strategy, Government and Alliances, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1690932021-10-01T06:41:28Z2021-10-01T06:41:28ZBerejiklian’s downfall derailed a career built on accountability and control. Now, who will replace her?<p>In announcing her intention to resign as NSW premier today, Gladys Berejiklian took the, “<a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/gladys-berejiklian-statement">I have been given no option</a>” option. </p>
<p>Her actions followed confirmation by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) that it would continue its public inquiry into whether she engaged in conduct that “<a href="https://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/2021-media-releases/further-operation-keppel-public-inquiry">constituted or involved a breach of public trust</a>”.</p>
<p>The ICAC investigation relates to Berejiklian’s “personal relationship” with the former Liberal member for Wagga Wagga, Daryl Maguire. </p>
<p>At issue, according to ICAC, is whether she was in a “position of conflict between her public duties and private interests” in the promise or awarding of public funding for projects in Maguire’s electorate.</p>
<p>In her parting statement, Berejiklian was at pains to emphasise she has “always acted with the highest level of integrity”. She described the matters involving the ICAC inquiry as “historic”, noting she has “been the subject of numerous attacks […] by political opponents over the last 12 months.”</p>
<h2>A record of accountability and delivery</h2>
<p>Berejiklian’s statement focused substantially on control, timing and choice. This is significant. </p>
<p>For a decision that has profound implications for a state enduring the most severe public health and socioeconomic events in its history, her deferral of the decision to ICAC’s agenda was notable. </p>
<p>Her hand, she said, was forced. The timing? “Out of [her] control”. The decision? “Against every instinct in [her] being.” The choice? “ICAC’s prerogative”.</p>
<p>The acquiescence of responsibility in resignation is uncharacteristic for a premier who has forged a path defined by clear policy objectives, accountability and delivery. Those traits are largely a matter of public record.</p>
<p>Through her parliamentary career – since being elected in 2003 as the member for the <a href="https://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/District-profiles/Willoughby">northern Sydney electorate of Willoughby</a>, then as the minister for industrial relations and transport, and later as treasurer and premier – Berejiklian has overseen major initiatives. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/brand-gladys-how-icac-revelations-hurt-berejiklians-school-captain-image-147986">Brand Gladys: how ICAC revelations hurt Berejiklian's 'school captain' image</a>
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<p>Among them were the 2012 implementation of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/technology/test-of-citys-ticket-to-ride-will-decide-if-opal-is-coalitions-trump-card-20121125-2a1mj.html">electronic transport ticketing</a>, the 2015 return to <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-budget-delivers-a-fat-surplus-but-mixed-bag-for-turnbulls-chances-60634">budget surplus</a>, the 2018 <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/territories-regions-cities/cities/city-deals/western-sydney">Western Sydney City Deal</a> and the 2019 opening of the <a href="https://www.sydneymetro.info/news-article-category/northwest">Sydney Metro Northwest</a>.</p>
<p>Her early management of the COVID-19 pandemic – through rapid contact tracing and agile testing regimes – was seen as further confirmation of her success, with the Australian Financial Review Magazine going so far as to herald her, “<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/why-critics-don-t-faze-the-premier-who-steered-a-nation-20210413-p57iog">The woman who saved Australia</a>”. </p>
<p>Equally, the premier’s presiding over a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/what-nsw-will-do-if-australia-loses-its-triplea-credit-rating-20170219-gug7tf.html">AAA credit rating</a> set the state up for a large-scale stimulus response to the pandemic’s economic disruption.</p>
<h2>A catalyst for government expansion</h2>
<p>For the leader of a Liberal-National administration, Berejiklian might be remembered for her championing of some distinctly uncharacteristic ideological approaches. Her “<a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/premiers-priorities">Premier’s Priorities</a>” set a series of social policy benchmarks for her ministers and departmental heads in areas typically viewed as Labor terrain. </p>
<p>Protecting vulnerable children, reducing domestic violence, preventing street homelessness, and increasing Aboriginal access to education are among key measures where her impact, over the longer term, might be more felt than the headline-grabbing pursuit of hard infrastructure.</p>
<p>Against the Liberal tradition of “small government”, she became a catalyst for its expansion. In her orbit, a plethora of <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/department-of-premier-and-cabinet">agencies and statutory bodies</a> arose. With nuanced purpose and specific remits, the last two parliamentary terms alone have ushered in the Greater Sydney Commission, the Western City Aerotropolis Authority, the Western Parkland City Authority, Investment NSW and Resilience NSW, to name a few.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-long-history-of-political-corruption-in-nsw-and-the-downfall-of-mps-ministers-and-premiers-147994">The long history of political corruption in NSW — and the downfall of MPs, ministers and premiers</a>
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<p>From an electoral standpoint, Berejiklian has also been a steady hand. Taking the reins from her popular predecessor, Mike Baird, in January 2017, <a href="https://pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/sg1901/Home?_ga=2.108567873.219936948.1633058704-556731579.1632876054">she lost some ground at the March 2019 election</a>. Her party dropped six seats and weathered a 2.3% two-party preferred swing, despite having an impressive budgetary record and infrastructure pipeline. </p>
<p>Since then, Berejiklian’s more recent responses to the pandemic have attracted criticism. Her government was viewed by some critics as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/10/what-went-wrong-how-delta-exposed-the-nsw-approach-to-covid">slow to act</a> in responding to the state’s Delta variant outbreak. On stimulus, NSW was left in the shade by commitments like the <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/victorias-big-housing-build">$5.3 billion social housing investment</a> made by the Victorian government.</p>
<p>Her admission in late 2020 that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/26/berejiklian-admits-140m-grant-scheme-was-pork-barrelling-as-approval-documents-revealed">pork barrelling is neither “illegal” or “unique to [her] government”</a>, was also a significant misstep with an electorate bruised by perceived inequities in the distribution of public funds. </p>
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<h2>Who might replace Berejiklian?</h2>
<p>Her successor will confront considerable challenges aside from the state’s protracted public health situation. The newly installed Labor leader, Chris Minns, is also <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/chris-minns-best-path-to-victory-could-be-through-western-sydney-20210606-p57yh4.html">making inroads in critical electoral battlegrounds like western Sydney</a>.</p>
<p>Minns’ focus on engaging with large areas of Sydney’s west impacted by hard lockdowns and economic disruption will be difficult to counter for any incoming Liberal-National premier. The new leader will also need to consolidate a joint-party room destabilised by Berejiklian’s departure.</p>
<p>Who that new premier might be is a matter for conjecture. Treasurer Dominic Perrottet, a conservative faction figure, is viewed by many as a leading contender. He has been a <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/scott-morrison-used-fbomb-in-row-with-nsw-treasurer-dominic-perrottet-over-covid19-financial-support/news-story/7500b9f6e8e7649dd1ac78418ce5cd03">vocal critic</a> of the federal government’s approach to economic support during the pandemic. </p>
<p>Late last year, he also ventured into commentary on Sydney’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/sirius-building-in-the-rocks-is-as-sexy-as-a-car-park-says-nsw-minister-dominic-perrottet-20160810-gqp31n.html">urban aesthetics</a>. And in the past week announced a <a href="https://www.treasury.nsw.gov.au/news/media-release-perrottet-berejiklian-ayres-new-5-billion-westinvest-fund-rejuvenate-western">$5 billion funding package</a> for western Sydney.</p>
<p>Others in the Coalition have a case for leadership. Rob Stokes, a moderate, has championed a wider view of planning and public space in a portfolio critical to a state contending with rapid urban growth and questions of sustainability. </p>
<p>The firebrand transport minister, Andrew Constance, might rethink his commitment to bow out of state politics and test his leadership credentials with colleagues.</p>
<p>And Stuart Ayres, the moderate faction minister for western Sydney, may also prove compelling to peers who view him as a steady set of hands with deep ties to a key constituency.</p>
<p>For now, though, the ripples of Berejiklian’s announcement still need to play out. </p>
<p>In taking the “no option” option, she has made her own irreconcilable challenges on timing a matter for her colleagues to consider, as well. We’ll know the ramifications of that in coming days. The outgoing premier’s legacy, however, is something that will take much longer to determine.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-a-nsw-premier-falls-and-sa-guts-its-anti-corruption-commission-what-are-the-lessons-for-integrity-bodies-in-australia-168932">As a NSW premier falls and SA guts its anti-corruption commission, what are the lessons for integrity bodies in Australia?</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169093/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The lack of responsibility in her resignation was uncharacteristic for a premier known for her clear policy objectives, accountability and delivery.Andy Marks, Pro Vice-Chancellor, Strategy, Government and Alliances, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1690962021-10-01T06:36:58Z2021-10-01T06:36:58ZStadiums, bushfires and a pandemic: how will Gladys Berejiklian be remembered as premier?<p>Gladys Berejiklian will be remembered as premier of NSW for her resilience, level-headedness, crisis management skills, and administrative competence — and, of course, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/gladys-berejiklian-quits-premiership-amid-icac-inquiry-into-links-with-former-mp-169099">ICAC investigation</a> that toppled her.</p>
<p>Decent, determined and hard-working, she was unflappable in adversity. </p>
<p>Berejiklian leaves a legacy of economic achievement and major infrastructure creation. She achieved a major milestone both personally and for women by being the first female NSW premier to win a general election. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/berejiklians-downfall-derailed-a-career-built-on-accountability-and-control-now-who-will-replace-her-169093">Berejiklian's downfall derailed a career built on accountability and control. Now, who will replace her?</a>
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<h2>Energetic, effective and politically astute</h2>
<p>Of Armenian descent, Berejiklian began her career in politics working for former Liberal leader Peter Collins. She was prominent in the Liberal moderates faction and was <a href="http://nswyoungliberals.org/yl-to-mp-series">president of the Young Liberals</a>. After a sojourn in banking, she was elected MP for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/guide/will">Collins’ former seat of Willoughby in 2003.</a> She proved to be an energetic, effective shadow transport minister.</p>
<p>Berejiklian impressed Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell, who became something of a mentor. When O’Farrell became premier in 2011, Berejiklian served in the important transport portfolio. </p>
<p>She was tipped as a possible future premier because of her strong performance. However, when O’Farrell resigned after misleading an ICAC inquiry in April 2014, Mike Baird had the numbers in the party room. Berejiklian, who was personally close to Baird, withdrew from the contest and was elected deputy leader. She was treasurer and industrial relations minister in the Baird government.</p>
<p>Berejiklian’s time came when Baird <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/nsw-premier-mike-baird-announces-retirement/8193362">resigned in January 2017</a> — she was elected Premier unopposed in late January 2017. </p>
<p>Berejiklian’s policy direction was similar to that of her predecessor, with a strong focus on economics, infrastructure and public sector reform. </p>
<p>Also like Baird, Berejiklian was a small “l” liberal on social reform. She had a less outgoing personal style than Baird but succeeded in convincing the voters she was trustworthy, capable and sensitive to their needs. </p>
<p>The premier stabilised the government and showed it still had purpose and dynamism. She showed her political astuteness by quickly dumping the unpopular local government reforms that had been a factor in Baird’s downfall.</p>
<p>The premier survived two rounds of threatening by-elections in April 2017, a sign the anti-government feeling that marked the end of Baird’s term had diminished.</p>
<h2>The serpentine politics of Sydney</h2>
<p>The serpentine politics of Sydney sport and stadiums left Berejiklian wrong-footed at the end of 2017. She announced that both Allianz and Homebush stadiums in Sydney would be simultaneously demolished and rebuilt at an <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/it-s-not-the-stadiums-it-s-the-shambolic-way-we-have-sold-it-20180316-p4z4o9.html">estimated cost of A$2.5 billion</a>. </p>
<p>It was a major miscalculation that would haunt Berejiklian. Public reaction was overwhelmingly negative, a common theme being that it was a gross misuse of public funds to rebuild two stadiums, one only 17-years-old, instead of financing vital community facilities. The premier backtracked on the demolition of Homebush but much public resentment remained about Allianz.</p>
<p>In her campaign for the March 2019 election, Berejiklian ran largely on the government’s record. </p>
<p>The economy was performing well compared to other states, the public finances were in the best condition they had been in for a long time, and the infrastructure budget for the next four years was close to $90 billion. Labor leader Michael Daley made opposition to the demolishing and rebuilding of Allianz Stadium the spearhead of his campaign. </p>
<p>While not a flashy or magnetic campaigner, Berejiklian stayed “on message” and came across as sincere and conscientious. The result was a triumphant victory for her. The government’s two-party preferred vote was 52% and its primary vote 42% — 9% higher than Labor’s. </p>
<p>The premier had persuaded enough voters that the government had significant achievements to its credit and was better equipped to deliver more in the future.</p>
<h2>Through bushfires and COVID</h2>
<p>The last years of Berejiklian’s term were marked by skilful handling of major crises. Like other parts of Australia, in January 2020, NSW was ravaged by a devastating bushfire season, in which <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/incalculable-loss-nsw-bushfire-inquest-to-examine-deaths-of-25-people/news-story/540d5e5e35bd6fe3d2d5194538a7eada">25 lives were lost</a>. </p>
<p>Unlike Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Berejiklian emerged from the bushfire crisis with enhanced prestige. </p>
<p>As political commentator Niki Savva, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/scott-morrison-should-follow-gladys-berejiklians-lead/news-story/ae25704efd231937c15b936c78b32d67">writing</a> in The Australian, put it:</p>
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<p>When the fires hit NSW, she made a point of being there, every day, standing next to the fire chief, Shane Fitzsimmons, supporting him and allowing him to do his job. She visited affected communities. Her embraces were accepted. No one refused to shake her hand.</p>
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<p>No sooner had the bushfires ceased than the state was plunged into another crisis with the outbreak of coronavirus. Berejiklian responded in much the same way, this time with Chief Medical Officer, Kerry Chant, by her side. </p>
<p>The second NSW COVID outbreak proved to be more difficult and unpredictable to manage but by the time of her resignation the situation was coming under control. </p>
<p>Although she had been criticised by some for her handling of the crisis, Berejiklian’s calm, competent, communicative approach would seem to have resonated in the electorate.</p>
<h2>ICAC’s Operation Keppel</h2>
<p>ICAC’s Operation Keppel was inquiring into whether former Liberal MP for Wagga Daryl Maguire engaged in conduct that involved a breach of public trust. </p>
<p>Public hearings began in September 2020 and Berejiklian appeared as a witness in October. </p>
<p>In a disclosure that generated a widespread tsunami of shock, it was revealed the premier had been in a “close personal relationship” with Maguire from 2015 which had only recently ended. </p>
<p>Previously, the public persona of Berejiklian, who had never married, was that of a rather prim career woman wedded to her job.</p>
<p>Berejiklian said that she had no intention of quitting as she had done nothing wrong and most voters seemed to be sympathetic. </p>
<p>The general attitude was that she had made a miscalculation in her personal life, a not uncommon phenomenon, and did not deserve to be punished by losing her job. </p>
<p>As reporter Deborah Snow put it, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/gladys-berejiklian-holds-her-ground-to-fight-another-week-but-may-not-survive-another-mistake-20201023-p5681u.html">writing</a> in The Sydney Morning Herald, </p>
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<p>there was relief inside the government that the crisis was playing out as a titillating love gone wrong scandal rather than a probity scandal.</p>
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<p>The announcement of an <a href="https://twitter.com/nswicac/status/1443757826707320833">ICAC inquiry</a> into whether the premier had engaged in conduct that involved a “breach of public trust” as a result of her relationship with Maguire has precipitated her resignation. </p>
<p>She could have stepped aside pending the result of the inquiry, but instead has chosen to take the same course as O’Farrell, who decided to do the honourable thing and walk.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-long-history-of-political-corruption-in-nsw-and-the-downfall-of-mps-ministers-and-premiers-147994">The long history of political corruption in NSW — and the downfall of MPs, ministers and premiers</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169096/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Clune does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Gladys Berejiklian will be remembered as premier of NSW for her resilience, level-headedness, crisis management skills, and administrative competence.David Clune, Honorary Associate, Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1612732021-05-24T05:49:55Z2021-05-24T05:49:55ZCoalition has large lead in NSW as Nats easily hold Upper Hunter at byelection<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/402278/original/file-20210524-21-1s0xn4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C4%2C2519%2C1640&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren Pateman/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A recent Resolve poll of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-preferred-premier-among-labor-voters-poll-20210518-p57szj.html">New South Wales voters</a> for The Sydney Morning Herald has given the Coalition 44% of the primary vote, Labor 28%, the Greens 12% and the Shooters Fishers and Farmers 4%. This is the first nonpartisan poll of NSW state voting intentions since the last election. </p>
<p>At the March <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_New_South_Wales_state_election">2019 election</a>, primary votes were Coalition 41.6%, Labor 33.3%, Greens 9.6% and Shooters 3.5%.</p>
<p>No two-party estimate was provided by Resolve, but <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1394813963754381314">analyst Kevin Bonham</a> estimates this means 56-44 to the Coalition, compared with 52-48 at the election. The poll was conducted with two federal Resolve polls in mid-April and mid-May from a sample of 1,228.</p>
<p>Premier Gladys Berejiklian led Labor leader Jodi McKay as preferred premier by a massive 57-17 margin. Half of those polled thought Berejiklian likeable, while 17% were negative. Meanwhile, 13% thought McKay likeable, while 21% were negative (this includes don’t know and neutral responses).</p>
<h2>Nationals easily win Upper Hunter byelection</h2>
<p>There was a byelection in the state seat of Upper Hunter on Saturday. With 84% of enrolled voters counted, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/upper-hunter-by-election-2021/results">Nationals defeated Labor</a> by a 55.7-44.3 margin, a 3.1% swing to the Nationals from the 2019 election. Primary votes were 31.2% to the Nationals (down 2.8%), 21.3% to Labor (down 7.3%), 12.3% to One Nation, 12.0% to the Shooters (down 10.1%) and 12.9% for two independents combined.</p>
<p>The total vote for the major parties fell 10.1% to 52.5%, but with a large field of candidates, the National and Labor candidates were certain to finish in the top two after preferences, especially given NSW’s optional preferential voting system. </p>
<p>The Shooters won three seats at the last state election, but will need to come to an agreement with One Nation not to contest the other party’s target seats at the next election.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/little-change-in-post-budget-newspoll-liberals-win-tasmanian-majority-160618">Little change in post-budget Newspoll; Liberals win Tasmanian majority</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This is the lowest primary vote for the Nationals in what was a safe Nationals seat before the rise of the Shooters and One Nation. For Labor, it is their second lowest primary vote, beating only the 17.9% at the 2011 Labor annihilation.</p>
<p>Overall <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/nsw2021by1/Results/UpperHunter.htm">preference flows</a> from all third party candidates were 20.5% to Labor, 16.3% to the Nationals and 63.2% <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/upper-hunter-by-election-2021/results">exhausted</a>. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/upper-hunter-by-election-2021">Including exhausted ballots</a>, two party vote shares were 39.0% Nationals (down 0.9% since 2019), 31.0% Labor (down 5.0%) and 30.0% exhausted (up 5.8%). That’s the lowest Nationals share by this measure.</p>
<p>The byelection was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/upper-hunter-by-election-2021">caused</a> when former member Michael Johnsen was accused of sexually assaulting a sex worker — he denies any wrongdoing. Other factors that would normally be expected to drag the Nationals vote down are the loss of Johnsen’s personal vote, having a federal government of the same party, and the ten-year age of the current NSW Coalition government.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/has-a-backlash-against-political-correctness-made-sexual-misbehaviour-more-acceptable-158428">Has a backlash against political correctness made sexual misbehaviour more acceptable?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The byelection result and the Coalition’s big lead in the state NSW poll are both dire for NSW Labor. And it’s another example of sex scandals not impacting actual votes.</p>
<p>At the last election, the Coalition won 48 of the 93 lower house seats, one more than the 47 needed for a majority. They have <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/05/21/upper-hunter-by-election-and-resolve-strategic-state-poll/">lost two members</a> to the crossbench, so winning this byelection still puts them in minority government with 46 seats. The Coalition is in no danger of losing a confidence vote.</p>
<h2>Federal Resolve poll</h2>
<p>In the federal <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-warn-scott-morrison-not-to-rush-to-an-early-election-20210517-p57sqe.html">Resolve poll</a> for the Nine newspapers, conducted April 12-16 from an online sample of 1,622, primary votes were 39% to the Coalition (up one since April), 35% for Labor (up two), 12% to the Greens (steady) and 2% to One Nation (down four). From these primary vote figures, <a href="https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/05/poll-roundup-another-budget-rates.html">Bonham estimates Labor</a> is in front, 51-49, a one-point gain for Labor since April.</p>
<p>It is likely One Nation’s large drop reflects Resolve adopting Newspoll’s methods on the One Nation vote, and they are now only asking for One Nation in seats they contested at the 2019 election.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/great-approach-weak-execution-economists-decline-to-give-budget-top-marks-161347">Great approach, weak execution. Economists decline to give budget top marks</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>More than half (53%) gave Prime Minister Scott Morrison a good rating for his performance in recent weeks, and 38% a poor rating; his net +15 rating is up three from <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-and-morrison-gain-in-newspoll-and-the-new-resolve-poll-159628">April</a>. Labor leader Anthony Albanese was at 32% good, 45% poor, for a net of -13, down seven points. Morrison led Albanese by 48-25 (compared to 47-25 in April).</p>
<p>On economic management, the Coalition and Morrison led Labor and Albanese by 46-20 (43-21 in April). On handling COVID, the Coalition led by 46-20 (42-20 in April).</p>
<p>Resolve had far stronger approval for the budget <a href="https://theconversation.com/little-change-in-post-budget-newspoll-liberals-win-tasmanian-majority-160618">than Newspoll</a>. More than half (56%) rated it good for the country and just 10% poor (for a net +46). Meanwhile 35% rated it good for their personal finances and 17% poor (net +18). Treasurer Josh Frydenberg had a +31 net rating, while Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers was at -3.</p>
<h2>Newspoll and the budget</h2>
<p>In additional <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b50e44fd32aa6743b364a416516458e3?width=650">Newspoll</a> questions, released last Tuesday, more voters trusted a Coalition government led by Morrison over a Labor government led by Albanese to guide Australia’s COVID recovery (52-33 voters, compared to 54-32 last October).</p>
<p>Of those surveyed, 60% of voters thought the government was right to stimulate the economy despite increased debt, while 30% said it should do more to rein in spending. During Labor’s last period in government, the Coalition ranted about debt and deficit, but now 71% of Coalition voters support increased debt.</p>
<p>The Newspoll also found many voters thought Labor would not have delivered a better budget (46-33). Bonham says the 13-point margin is typical by recent standards after the 49-33 result following the 2020 budget.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161273/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the latest release of polls, the Morrison government also leads Albanese’s Labor when it comes to economic management.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1479942020-10-14T19:12:07Z2020-10-14T19:12:07ZThe long history of political corruption in NSW — and the downfall of MPs, ministers and premiers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363299/original/file-20201014-13-1v7us87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian has become ensnared this week in the sensational ICAC hearings into alleged corruption by former MP Daryl Maguire — and suddenly finds her future very much in doubt.</p>
<p>In yesterday’s hearing, Maguire <a href="https://twitter.com/David_Speers/status/1316164386864553984">admitted</a> to using his parliamentary office and resources to conduct private business dealings, including receiving thousands of dollars in cash as part of a visa scam.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Berejiklian, who has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/gladys-berejiklian-nsw-premier-mp-daryl-maguire/12761880?nw=0">denied any wrongdoing</a> by maintaining a personal relationship with Maguire even after he was forced to resign as MP, has faced calls from the Opposition for her to resign.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brand-gladys-how-icac-revelations-hurt-berejiklians-school-captain-image-147986">Brand Gladys: how ICAC revelations hurt Berejiklian's 'school captain' image</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Whether Berejiklian will be forced to step down remains to be seen. But it’s becoming clearer by the day that, at the very least, her <a href="https://theconversation.com/brand-gladys-how-icac-revelations-hurt-berejiklians-school-captain-image-147986">reputation</a> will be seriously tarnished by the explosive revelations. </p>
<p>Berejiklian is hardly the first NSW politician to become enmeshed in scandal. </p>
<p>Corruption has been ingrained in the political culture of NSW, from the days of its founding in the 19th century. This is the very reason the Independent Commission Against Corruption was formed in 1988 — and why it remains a vital watchdog over the inner workings of state government. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363301/original/file-20201014-21-30d5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363301/original/file-20201014-21-30d5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363301/original/file-20201014-21-30d5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363301/original/file-20201014-21-30d5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363301/original/file-20201014-21-30d5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363301/original/file-20201014-21-30d5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363301/original/file-20201014-21-30d5n8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maguire told ICAC he accepted ‘thousands of dollars’ as part of a cash-for-visa scheme.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ICAC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A corrupt old town</h2>
<p>Before <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/about/Pages/1856-to-1889-Responsible-Government-and-Colonial-.aspx">NSW began governing itself</a> in 1856, the colony was run for many years by the upright, dedicated and incorruptible Colonial Secretary <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/thomson-sir-edward-deas-2732">Edward Deas Thomson</a>. </p>
<p>With a fully elected parliament and premier, however, things changed. And democratic politics attracted corruption from the beginning. </p>
<p>Historian John Hirst <a href="https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/freedom-fatal-shore">said</a> that after 1856, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>to conservatives it appeared as if the government had been debased into a giant system of corruption with needy ministers and members bound together by their joint interest in plunder.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Politics then (and now) was a honey pot: needy, greedy ministers and MPs were always looking to benefit from public works, jobs, development and government contracts, as well as through the manipulation of the criminal justice system. </p>
<p>NSW has also always had a sleazy subterranean network of fixers and door-openers who could influence decisions for the right price. </p>
<p>Sydney has traditionally been thought of as a corrupt old town. Whether this was because of its buccaneering origins in the convict era or because it was where all the action took place has long been an open question. </p>
<h2>A few of NSW’s not-so-finer moments</h2>
<p>The colony’s early days set the stage for a long history of political and public corruption. Among the more notable episodes:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a royal commission in 1905 revealed <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/crick-william-patrick-paddy-5821">Lands Minister Paddy Crick</a> had been involved in large-scale extortion and corruption, leading to his resignation </p></li>
<li><p>the corrupt dealings of Agriculture Minister WC Grahame <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/127958608">led to his resignation</a> in 1920 </p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/ANZLawHisteJl/2005/9.pdf">1951 Maxwell Royal Commission</a> revealed widespread police involvement in corruption and the “sly grog” trade </p></li>
<li><p>the term of <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/askin-sir-robert-william-bob-12152">Liberal Premier Bob Askin</a> (1965–75) saw rampant corruption at the highest levels of politics and the police </p></li>
<li><p>during <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/members/Pages/profiles/wran_neville-kenneth.aspx">Labor Premier Neville Wran’s</a> time in office (1976–86), the corrective services minister and chief magistrate were tried and subsequently imprisoned for corruption </p></li>
<li><p>and in the late 1990s, the <a href="https://www.lib.latrobe.edu.au/research/ageofinquiry/biogs/E000002b.htm">Wood Royal Commission</a> revealed entrenched, systemic corruption in the police force.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>ICAC is formed — and then brings down its founder</h2>
<p>In response to the storm of corruption allegations in the Wran years, Liberal Premier Nick Greiner <a href="https://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/about-the-nsw-icac/legislation/history-and-development-of-the-icac-act">created</a> the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC). The new body had wide powers, a broad anti-corruption brief and iron-clad independence. </p>
<p>Ironically, Greiner was an early victim of the new body. In 1992, it found him <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/ghosts-of-past-misdeeds-lurk-behind-a-career-cut-short-20140416-36sen.html">guilty of corruption</a> for appointing renegade Liberal MP Terry Metherell to a senior public service position to allow the government to regain his safe seat. </p>
<p>The finding was overturned by the courts on appeal and most today would agree that Greiner had acted corruptly in only a technical sense. (He had not benefited personally and in the pre-ICAC era, this would have been seen as an astute bit of politics.)</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363302/original/file-20201014-19-1gmmqjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363302/original/file-20201014-19-1gmmqjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363302/original/file-20201014-19-1gmmqjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363302/original/file-20201014-19-1gmmqjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363302/original/file-20201014-19-1gmmqjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363302/original/file-20201014-19-1gmmqjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363302/original/file-20201014-19-1gmmqjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Greiner’s political career ended in 1992 after ICAC expressed concerns over his integrity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DAN HIMBRECHTS/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Greiner’s downfall was a vivid indication of the seismic shift that had taken place in NSW politics to try and rid the state of corruption.</p>
<p>The previous “nudge, nudge, wink, wink” era of political favours was gone. A problem could no longer be fixed with the right contacts and right sum of money, and turning a blind eye to improper behaviour by “mates” was no longer acceptable. </p>
<p>Everyone in the public sector was on notice that corrupt dealings would be investigated and punished and offenders publicly shamed.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/history-repeats-how-ofarrell-and-greiner-fell-foul-of-icac-25701">History repeats: how O'Farrell and Greiner fell foul of ICAC </a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>ICAC itself comes under scrutiny</h2>
<p>In 2012-13, ICAC investigations <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-14/dempster-corruption-allegations-at-the-heart-of-the-alp/4426510">exposed</a> former minister and power-broker Eddie Obeid’s extraordinary influence on the Labor governments of Morris Iemma and Kristina Keneally and the insidious tentacles of the Obeid family’s covert business empire. </p>
<p>Then, in 2014, Liberal Premier Barry O’Farrell <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-16/nsw-premier-barry-ofarrell-to-resign-over-icac-grange-wine/5393478">resigned</a> after falsely denying to ICAC he had received a bottle of expensive wine from an associate of Obeid’s, who was lobbying for a valuable government contract. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363303/original/file-20201014-15-1ftw8pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363303/original/file-20201014-15-1ftw8pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363303/original/file-20201014-15-1ftw8pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363303/original/file-20201014-15-1ftw8pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363303/original/file-20201014-15-1ftw8pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363303/original/file-20201014-15-1ftw8pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363303/original/file-20201014-15-1ftw8pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Barry O’Farrell resigned over his inability to remember being gifted a $3,000 bottle of wine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DAN HIMBRECHTS/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>O’Farrell <a href="https://theconversation.com/barry-ofarrell-quits-as-nsw-premier-over-icac-memory-fail-25700">admitted</a> to a massive failure of memory but was cleared of any wrongdoing by ICAC. Nonetheless, he took the honourable course and resigned.</p>
<p>In recent years, ICAC itself has come under scrutiny. In 2015, it was accused of <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/legal-affairs/pursuit-of-margaret-cunneen-shows-icac-at-risk-of-overreach/news-story/7ffddea26db21ff1fc03a91b3d194e28">overreach</a>, particularly in its pursuit of Deputy Chief Crown Prosecutor Margaret Cunneen. </p>
<p>David Levine, ICAC’s inspector and a former judge, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/icac-criticised-by-own-inspector-over-margaret-cunneen-probe/news-story/b707f5620bc51c648293a0db55fde0af">harshly criticised</a> the commission’s investigation of Cunneen, calling it “unjust, unreasonable and oppressive”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363304/original/file-20201014-23-1qoxnze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/363304/original/file-20201014-23-1qoxnze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363304/original/file-20201014-23-1qoxnze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363304/original/file-20201014-23-1qoxnze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363304/original/file-20201014-23-1qoxnze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363304/original/file-20201014-23-1qoxnze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/363304/original/file-20201014-23-1qoxnze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Levine called the inquiry into Cunneen a ‘low point’ in ICAC’s history.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">JOEL CARRETT/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Reforms are brought in, but are they enough?</h2>
<p>As a result, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-16/former-minister-slams-icac-as-government-passes-overhaul/8031498">ICAC was restructured</a> in 2016. The existing single commissioner was replaced by a panel of three — a full-time chief commissioner and two part-time ones. </p>
<p>A decision to proceed to a compulsory examination or public inquiry needed majority approval of the three commissioners. More emphasis was placed on procedural fairness in inquiries. </p>
<p>And the highly respected Supreme Court judge Peter Hall <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/former-sydney-judge-peter-hall-named-new-icac-chief-commissioner-20170420-gvok0t.html">replaced</a> Megan Latham as chief commissioner in August 2017.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sports-rorts-affair-shows-the-need-for-a-proper-federal-icac-with-teeth-122800">The 'sports rorts' affair shows the need for a proper federal ICAC – with teeth</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Levine <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw-icacs-powers-to-be-scrutinised-32560737.html">had also proposed</a> abolishing public inquiries, which he said had resulted in the undeserved trashing of reputations. </p>
<p>He recommended an exoneration protocol for those who had a finding of corrupt conduct made against them but were acquitted in court, and judicial review of ICAC decisions. </p>
<p>These recommendations were rejected at the time, but they may be worth reconsidering — particularly if the inquiry into Maguire’s actions unfairly jeopardises Berejiklian’s premiership.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147994/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Clune does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As disgraced MP Daryl Maguire gives evidence to ICAC, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s future appears ever shakier. She would hardly be the first to fall in the state’s sordid political history.David Clune, Honorary Associate, Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1236762019-09-17T04:13:23Z2019-09-17T04:13:23ZNSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian avoids a spill but remains in troubled waters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292716/original/file-20190917-19045-19xqsaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gladys Berejiklian has seen off a spill motion, but NSW politics remains a hotbed of discontent.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/James Gourley</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/24/gladys-berejiklian-leads-coalition-to-third-term-in-government-in-nsw">“How good is Gladys Berejiklian?”</a> Prime Minister Scott Morrison asked a jubilant crowd of Liberal supporters on the evening of her March 23 2019 state election win. Only as good as her most recent legislative adventure, it would seem.</p>
<p>When, barely six months ago, the NSW Liberal premier returned the state’s Liberal-National coalition for a third term, a leadership spill was the furthest thing from the minds of her supporters and detractors. She had defied a strong challenge from Labor and federal political distractions to secure a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/results/party-totals">narrow win</a> and contain the carnage for her Nationals partners to a handful of seats. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-coalition-scrapes-back-in-as-minor-parties-surge-but-delivering-on-promises-will-not-be-easy-113485">NSW Coalition scrapes back in as minor parties surge – but delivering on promises will not be easy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But a leadership spill is precisely the scenario three of her party-room colleagues — Lou Amato, Tanya Davies and Matthew Mason-Cox — attempted to force upon her late in the evening of September 16. Their <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/rebel-liberal-mps-to-move-spill-motion-against-premier-20190916-p52ryo.html">chief rationale</a>? The premier’s failure to act on their concerns </p>
<blockquote>
<p>by stopping the fast-tracking of [an] abortion bill and immediately establishing a joint select committee into abortion law reform in NSW.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The rebels <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/gladys-berejiklian-to-remain-premier-as-rebel-mps-call-off-leadership-spill-20190917-p52s0h.html">withdrew the spill threat</a> ahead of a September 17 party-room meeting, claiming they’d been promised </p>
<blockquote>
<p>further concessions will be forthcoming in relation to amendments to the abortion bill. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Moderate Liberals have <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-politics-live-gladys-berejiklian-set-for-leadership-spill-over-abortion-bill-20190917-p52rz8.html">reportedly responded</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Any chance of concessions to the bill went out the window last night when they started this. We don’t negotiate with terrorists.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Clearly the matter is anything but resolved.</p>
<p>How is it a political leader with freshly consolidated electoral support, a budget in surplus, low trending unemployment and record infrastructure investment found herself so publicly undermined by backbench colleagues in such an 11th-hour stunt? The reasons are diametrically simple and complex.</p>
<p>At a basic level, the events are an airing of protracted and unresolved factional tensions within the National and NSW structures of the Liberal Party. Moderates and conservatives are in a battle for the soul of the party. This thwarted spill proves that even electoral success has not resolved that destructive impulse.</p>
<p>At last year’s Liberal federal council, the party’s conservatives <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-16/liberal-members-vote-to-privatise-abc-move-embassy-to-jerusalem/9877524">put forward motions</a> to, for example, sell off the ABC and move Australia’s embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. At the NSW branch level, preselections are no longer simply fraught, they verge on out-and-out warfare, resulting in <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/a-current-affair-liberal-party-matthew-hana-scuffle-footage/f9008736-350a-4169-aacd-a21618208fa0">allegations of bullying and intimidation</a>.</p>
<p>From a less partisan and broader ideological standpoint, single-issue or emblematic politics — a lens through which many view the abortion bill — is rearing its head to an unprecedented extent globally. It is apparent in Brexit, where crashing out of an economic union is proxy for the perceived failure of trickle-down economics.</p>
<p>Street-by-street regionalism is also infusing the decision-making of parliamentarians, eclipsing state-based or party positions. </p>
<p>Take Tanya Davies’ scenario where she contends with an electorate of pronounced social conservatism. Rates of Catholicism are nearly twice the national average in Davies’ outer western Sydney electorate of Mulgoa. The rate of Mulgoa residents identifying as being of “no religion” is almost half the national average. It is this electoral picture that may be emboldening Davies to take a strong stance on certain issues, even if it means not toeing the party line.</p>
<p>Parliamentarians appear to feel increasingly compelled for electoral or personal imperatives to take a stand on conscience issues that ordinarily they’d rationalise on the basis of consolidated party positions. That impulse won’t end with an abandoned spill.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/after-119-years-nsw-is-set-to-decriminalise-abortion-why-has-reform-taken-so-long-121112">After 119 years, NSW is set to decriminalise abortion. Why has reform taken so long?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As if these unresolved fissures weren’t troubling enough for Berejiklian, she also faces <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/berejiklian-s-agenda-risks-getting-stuck-in-legislative-graveyard-mps-20190914-p52rai.html">a near stalemate in the upper house</a>. Her chief Legislative Council negotiator, moderate Don Harwin, has proven abysmal at delivering legislation through an increasingly fraught chamber that features an emboldened Mark Latham, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and assorted crossbenchers, all intent on clipping their respective tickets to the premier’s legislative agenda.</p>
<p>One of the state’s most effective premiers in terms of economic fundamentals finds herself in an unusually perilous position. The spill may be off, but her leadership is anything but certain.</p>
<p>Gambling on low-profile support, instead of high-profile stewardship, of the abortion bill looks to have been a miscalculation.</p>
<p>But it is hard to see how any position on this issue would consolidate her leadership at this time and in this emerging political climate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Marks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With her party ideologically riven and a difficult parliament, the NSW premier finds herself in political trouble, despite performing well on key measures.Andy Marks, Assistant Vice-Chancellor, Strategy and Policy, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1131192019-03-08T00:46:14Z2019-03-08T00:46:14ZMark Latham in the upper house? A Coalition minority government? The NSW election is nearly upon us and it’s going to be a wild ride<p>We are but weeks away from an election in New South Wales – polling day is on March 23 – and it will be eagerly watched. Not just for the outcome but for the implications for the looming federal election.</p>
<p>That’s according to Dr Andy Marks, a political scientist from Western Sydney University, who tells us on the podcast today that this state election outcome may give us some clues on how some global political themes are playing out here in Australia.</p>
<p>“It’s not just about state politics. Increasingly the Australian electoral cycles, federally and at the state level, are subject to changes in political dynamics internationally. We’re seeing the erosion of centrist politics around the world […] and that even affects humble New South Wales.”</p>
<p>He predicts a weakened Nationals Party will be facing a strong challenge from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and that One Nation’s Mark Latham is almost a sure bet to win a spot in the NSW upper house. </p>
<p>“I do think you’ll see a minority Coalition government returned but the really interesting play is what happens in the upper house. Currently, the Coalition have to deal with two to three independents or minor parties to get stuff over the line,” said Dr Marks.</p>
<p>“I think what we’ll see in the coming parliament is that that the ranks of cross-benchers will expand quite dramatically, up to seven to nine cross-benchers. So that makes negotiations pretty fraught.</p>
<p>"This is really going to be new territory,” he said. “We’ve got One Nation returning to the fold. Mark Latham, their number one ticket holder in the upper house, will get in. But potentially they’ll get two seats in the upper house. You’ll have an emboldened Shooters and Fishers Party.</p>
<p>"So you really have a really broad field and it’s going to mean negotiating the passage of bills will be pretty difficult.”</p>
<p>We also talked about:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>why East Hills (which takes in suburbs like Panania, Condell Park, the Bankstown aerodrome, Padstow, Revesby and others) is the most marginal seat in NSW</p></li>
<li><p>how a plan to demolish and rebuild two stadiums turned into a political headache for NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian</p></li>
<li><p>why Michael Daley, who took over from Luke Foley as NSW Labor leader late last year, is only now just making his mark</p></li>
<li><p>how local issues in rural seats may end up deciding the fate of the state</p></li>
<li><p>what it all means as we head into the May federal election.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>New to podcasts?</h2>
<p>Podcasts are often best enjoyed using a podcast app. All iPhones come with the Apple Podcasts app already installed, or you may want to listen and subscribe on another app such as Pocket Casts (click <a href="https://pca.st/VTv7">here</a> to listen to Trust Me, I’m An Expert on Pocket Casts).</p>
<p>You can also hear us on Stitcher, Spotify or any of the apps below. Just pick a service from one of those listed below and click on the icon to find Trust Me, I’m An Expert.</p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/trust-me-im-an-expert/id1290047736?mt=2&ign-mpt=uo%3D8"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233721/original/file-20180827-75984-1gfuvlr.png" alt="Listen on Apple Podcasts" width="268" height="68"></a> <a href="https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVjb252ZXJzYXRpb24uY29tL2F1L3BvZGNhc3RzL3RydXN0LW1lLXBvZGNhc3QucnNz"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233720/original/file-20180827-75978-3mdxcf.png" alt="" width="268" height="68"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-conversation/trust-me-im-an-expert"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233716/original/file-20180827-75981-pdp50i.png" alt="Stitcher" width="300" height="88"></a> <a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Trust-Me-Im-An-Expert-p1035757/"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233723/original/file-20180827-75984-f0y2gb.png" alt="Listen on TuneIn" width="318" height="125"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://radiopublic.com/trust-me-im-an-expert-Wa3E5A"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-152" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233717/original/file-20180827-75990-86y5tg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" alt="Listen on RadioPublic" width="268" height="87"></a> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7myc7drbLJVaRitAMXLB7V"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237984/original/file-20180925-149976-1ks72uy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=268&fit=clip" width="268" height="82"></a> </p>
<hr>
<h2>Additional audio</h2>
<p>Kindergarten by Unkle Ho, from <a href="https://www.elefanttraks.com/">Elefant Traks</a></p>
<p>ABC news <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-05/michael-daley-threatens-to-sack-alan-jones-and-scg-trust/10870814">report on 2GB interview</a> </p>
<p>2GB interview <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCnN3U85k7k">clip</a>.</p>
<h2>Image:</h2>
<p>Chris Pavlich/Dean Lewins(AAP)</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113119/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
It's worth keeping an eye on the NSW election outcome. It may end up telling us a lot about how global political themes, like the erosion of centrist politics, are playing out here in Australia.Sunanda Creagh, Senior EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1080202018-12-06T18:57:22Z2018-12-06T18:57:22ZAustralians love their sport, but investing in new venues is another matter<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249118/original/file-20181205-186061-2tizxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Melbourne Cricket Ground is known to Melburnians simply as the 'G and is host to a range of sports including Australian Football League and soccer, as well as other events.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For Australians, the accolade “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/sport/melbourne-named-worlds-sporting-capital-20160421-gobebk.html">sporting capital of the world</a>” is arguably more prized than “<a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/08/14/vienna-overtakes-melbourne-as-the-worlds-most-liveable-city">world’s most liveable city</a>”.</p>
<p>Australian cities (and the states) have appeared hell-bent on outdoing one another in building bigger and better sporting venues in pursuit of this moniker. Likewise, across the world, the construction of new <a href="https://kids.britannica.com/students/article/stadium-and-arena/277199">stadiums and arenas</a> has been increasing over the last 30 years. However, recent developments suggest that times may be changing. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249125/original/file-20181205-186067-1x3l103.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249125/original/file-20181205-186067-1x3l103.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249125/original/file-20181205-186067-1x3l103.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249125/original/file-20181205-186067-1x3l103.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249125/original/file-20181205-186067-1x3l103.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249125/original/file-20181205-186067-1x3l103.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249125/original/file-20181205-186067-1x3l103.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Adelaide Oval, the venue for this summer’s first Test between India and Australia, was redeveloped in recent years. It is just over the Torrens River from the central business district and has been widely praised for retaining the charm of the old while adding modern features.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Australian sports market is comparatively small. As a result, there has been a rationalisation of venues, moving from traditional suburban grounds to multi-use, centrally-located ones. For example, in Victoria, AFL matches are generally now played at either the Melbourne Cricket Ground or Docklands Stadium (now known as Marvel Stadium). Following this example, in 2012 the New South Wales state government <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/385/nsw_stadia_strategy_2012_0.pdf?1544005592">announced </a>that funding was to be focused on seven venues across the state, with other venues earmarked for training and exhibition matches.<br>
However, Labor opposition leader Michael Daley has announced N<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/you-won-t-get-a-single-cent-labor-stands-firm-on-stadium-cash-20181126-p50ien.html">SW Labor </a>will not rebuild either the Sydney Football Stadium at Moore Park, or proceed with an $800 million upgrade to ANZ Stadium if it wins government at the March election. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1066954958392545285"}"></div></p>
<p>The backlash has been swift, with NSW Sports Minister Stuart Ayres calling Labor’s plan “irresponsible”, suggesting it would leave Sydney as a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/scg-trust-to-fund-allianz-stadium-rebuild-under-labor-plan/news-story/5267d3af08b49fe22ff8cad6892df174">“sporting backwater” </a>. National Rugby League (NRL) chief executive <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/sydney-will-lose-nrl-grand-final-if-stadium-spend-stops-greenberg-20181127-p50iq6.html">Todd Greenberg</a> is also threatening to move the NRL Grand Final away from Sydney if the stadium upgrades are stopped.</p>
<p>Indeed, of all the nation’s state capitals, Sydney appears to be the most befuddled in terms of planning and simply getting on with it. After years of controversy and cost blow-outs, even Perth has welcomed its own new stadium ahead of this year’s cricket season.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249127/original/file-20181205-186058-5pohfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249127/original/file-20181205-186058-5pohfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249127/original/file-20181205-186058-5pohfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249127/original/file-20181205-186058-5pohfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249127/original/file-20181205-186058-5pohfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249127/original/file-20181205-186058-5pohfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249127/original/file-20181205-186058-5pohfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The moon rising over Perth Optus Stadium, which opened in February this year, replacing the ground known affectionately as the WACA as the main venue for Test cricket in the Western Australian capital.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a nation, our love of watching sport is undeniable, but our love of building large multi-purpose stadiums appears to be waning. With a few exceptions, the decades-long infatuation with building large multi-purpose stadiums is now met with a healthy amount of scepticism. Again, that trend can be seen in some overseas markets.</p>
<h2>A global trend</h2>
<p>In the United Kingdom, sports teams typically own their own venues. These teams are now financing the construction of new home grounds through a combination of <a href="https://www.tottenhamhotspur.com/news-archive-1/club-announcement-new-stadium-scheme-financing/">bank loans</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/97ca37cc-94de-11e3-af71-00144feab7de">property development</a>, and <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/everton-set-to-pursue-private-funding-for-new-500m-stadium-zb6h28pqz">private finance</a>. When there is local government involvement, financial support can be in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/jan/10/everton">form of a loan</a>.</p>
<p>Sporting developments involving the substantial investment of public money are unpopular in the UK. For example, there is ongoing frustration that the London Stadium (site of the London 2012 Olympic Games) continues to cost taxpayers money. Built for an initial <a href="http://stadiumdb.com/stadiums/eng/london_olympic_stadium">cost of £486 million</a>, it required <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/press-releases/assembly/the-full-cost-of-london-stadium">a further £323 million</a> to convert it for use by West Ham United Football Club, a soccer club in the English Premier League. The club pays a tiny yearly rent that <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/45439883">does not cover running costs</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249143/original/file-20181206-186061-f5wfiv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249143/original/file-20181206-186061-f5wfiv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249143/original/file-20181206-186061-f5wfiv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249143/original/file-20181206-186061-f5wfiv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249143/original/file-20181206-186061-f5wfiv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249143/original/file-20181206-186061-f5wfiv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249143/original/file-20181206-186061-f5wfiv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">London Stadium has proved a boon for West Ham United Football Club, a soccer club in the English Premier League - as they get it for fairly cheap rent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Historically, in the United States, venues were privately owned, but there has been a shift towards public subsidies for sporting venues. One study suggests about <a href="https://is.muni.cz/el/1456/jaro2008/PVEKOS/um/5093315/P5_Economic_impact_of_Mega-events.pdf">70% of stadium development was publicly funded</a>. While the amount of public funding is high, this contribution is not always from public subsidies. Hotel taxes, tax exemptions for venues, infrastructure improvements, and lottery funding can be used. Indeed, the construction of new venues is an often-used ploy to encourage sporting franchises to relocate to new cities. (Franchise relocation is so common in the US that it even appears as an <a href="https://realsport101.com/news/sports/esports/madden/madden-18-all-the-relocation-uniforms-logos-cities-teams-and-stadiums/">option in video games</a>.) </p>
<p>Yet even here, there are signs that the tide of public opinion may be turning against this practice. The US$700 million contribution toward the Atlanta Falcons stadium and the US$750+ million outlay for a new Las Vegas stadium have been criticised. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1069411012959510528"}"></div></p>
<p>In Australia, KPMG recently <a href="https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/au/pdf/2017/sports-stadium-ownership-competitive-costly.pdf">conducted a study</a> on Australian stadiums, highlighting how the costs for ongoing maintenance, repair and reinvestment of Australian stadium are significant. This can be more than 2% per annum (e.g. A$4 million per annum for a $200 million stadium).</p>
<p>State governments, who own many of the 12 large-capacity multi-purpose stadiums in Australia, now have to justify government spending on sports stadiums. Should public private partnerships (PPP) of stadiums be considered, where the cost is bridged through increased private sector funding? </p>
<h2>Any benefits to partially privatising arenas?</h2>
<p>The PPP model sees private contribution in return for a proportion of revenue over a period of time. In the US, public-private partnerships are now the most frequently used funding mix for new sports venues. Such arrangements add value and either <a href="https://sbr.com.sg/building-engineering/commentary/building-singapore-sports-hub-through-public-private-partnership">lower the financial burden on taxpayers</a> or allow a superior venue to be constructed. </p>
<p>Fully privatising sport stadiums is also being adopted. For example, the central government of <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/08/12/national/government-will-privatize-2020-olympics-stadium-event-ends-lessen-costs/">Japan plans to privatise</a> the National Stadium to be built for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics after the sports event ends. It is hoped that this move will reduce the running costs and the burden on taxpayers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249136/original/file-20181206-186079-1xqq6jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/249136/original/file-20181206-186079-1xqq6jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249136/original/file-20181206-186079-1xqq6jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249136/original/file-20181206-186079-1xqq6jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249136/original/file-20181206-186079-1xqq6jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249136/original/file-20181206-186079-1xqq6jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/249136/original/file-20181206-186079-1xqq6jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Beautifully located Bellerive Oval in Hobart has faced financial hardship given a dropoff in international cricket played in Tasmania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Elsewhere, it is now common for privately or club financed stadium redevelopments to incorporate residential property development to generate income for the club. Yet in Australia, it is rare for government financed venues to look beyond the stadium itself. In contrast, the Cronulla Sharks, who own their own stadium, have been able to enter into a partnership with Capital Bluestone to develop <a href="https://www.theleader.com.au/story/5352469/major-expansion-of-sharks-project-approved-but-playground-site-rejected/">residential and retail properties</a> that will generate income for both parities.</p>
<p>A study on the <a href="https://repository.usfca.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1004&context=ess">relationship between stadium funding and ticket prices</a> in the US revealed that the average ticket prices increased seasonally, regardless of the composition of stadium funding. The results indicated that on average, there is a reduction of US 42c in ticket prices with a 10% increase in public funding.</p>
<p>With proceeds from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/12/new-south-wales-leases-land-and-titles-registry-to-private-consortium-for-more-than-2bn">privatising the NSW Land Titles and Registry</a> office funding the stadium redevelopment, we consider that the question of privatising stadiums should be at least discussed. Otherwise, other publicly owned assets may need to be sold off to fund stadiums.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The main sporting venues in Australian capitals have had an upgrade in recent times, with the notable exception of Sydney, where leaders seem mired in indecision and political bickering.Jessica Richards, Lecturer Sport Business Management, Western Sydney UniversityKeith Parry, Senior Lecturer in Sport Management, University of WinchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/731182017-02-17T03:27:36Z2017-02-17T03:27:36ZBush democracy wins out but council mergers continue in Sydney<p>The 2016 announcement that 40 local councils in New South Wales would be dismissed and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/12/nsw-council-mergers-19-new-local-bodies-created-under-forced-plan">replaced by 19 new ones</a> generated a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/22/new-south-wales-council-mergers-have-political-ramifications">backlash</a> that has been strong and sustained. Efforts to resist amalgamation proved successful this week, at least for regional communities. New Premier Gladys Berejiklian has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-14/nsw-government-to-proceed-with-city-council-mergers-not-regional/8268340">announced</a> that the Coalition state government will no longer pursue forced amalgamations in the country. </p>
<p>For city councils, the <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/nsw-government-to-push-ahead-with-sydney-council-mergers-but-abandon-amalgamations-in-country-areas/news-story/a7e3c5fdfeea0761cab5bfbfda20ba1c">outlook is not so bright</a>. In councils that have been operating under administrators while awaiting new elections, anecdotal evidence from staff suggests the amalgamations have undone much hard work over many years in developing policies aligned with community preferences. </p>
<p>In the councils that took their opposition to the mergers to court, much uncertainty remains.</p>
<h2>Costs versus benefits</h2>
<p>Opponents have challenged the costs of mergers. A key concern for <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/wentworth-courier/woollahra-mayor-defends-costs-of-launching-appeal-in-face-of-mounting-court-costs/news-story/b0bcbff992d9f67728748f2c103ee5fc">Woollahra</a>, for example, is that residents would face significant rate increases. They would also have to compete for funds against larger facilities in more populous and more distant parts of the expanded council. </p>
<p>The government’s stated reasoning for consolidation was largely financial. This included a claim that councils were losing up to A$1 million a day. Yet the calculations on which those arguments were based have been challenged as <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/states-councils-rich-and-getting-richer-as-merger-deadline-looms-20150630-gi18tu.html">inaccurate and misleading</a>. </p>
<p>Analysis of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-mergers-make-for-better-councils-the-evidence-is-against-bigger-is-better-for-local-government-56813">outcomes of previous mergers</a> also shows little evidence of the promised economies of scale.</p>
<p>Others have focused on the benefits to particular interest groups. <a href="http://www.2gb.com/podcast/alan-jones-professor-brian-dollery/">Alan Jones</a> is one prominent commentator to suggest the amalgamations were influenced by a desire to reduce obstacles for property developers. The pursuit of city council mergers while abandoning regional consolidation does nothing to dispel such concerns.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"831290161900056576"}"></div></p>
<p>More fundamentally, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-council-mergers-and-reforms-imperil-local-government-democracy-56014">loss of democracy</a> associated with mergers has been a key focus of <a href="http://www.saveourcouncilsnsw.com/">opposition</a>. Previous amalgamations in NSW have been linked with <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/03/27/1080330993068.html">political agendas</a>, particularly efforts to bring local councils under the control of major parties. </p>
<h2>Law and politics</h2>
<p>Across Australia, the legal <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1011/11RP10">status of local government</a> has been a matter of long-running debate. While many councils existed well before Federation, the Australian Constitution makes no mention of local government.</p>
<p>Amending the Constitution to recognise local government was considered through referenda in <a href="https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/a/australia/1974-referendum-australia.html">1974</a> and <a href="https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/a/australia/1988-referendum-australia.html">1988</a>, and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-02/lane-local-government-referendum/4793956">would have been considered again</a> in 2013 if Julia Gillard had remained prime minister until the election. Without such recognition, control of local government is left to the states.</p>
<p>Even if they succeed in court, the councils challenging amalgamations <a href="https://www.claytonutz.com/knowledge/2016/august/fatal-blow-or-flesh-wound-court-dismisses-challenge-to-nsw-governments-forced-council-amalgamations">face an uphill battle</a>. Legally, the state can require local councils to amalgamate. </p>
<p>NSW has had many council mergers since the first Local Government Act was passed in 1906. The number of councils is now <a href="http://www.localgovernmentreview.nsw.gov.au/documents/lgr/Barriers%20and%20incentives%20to%20voluntary%20boundary%20change.pdf">less than half what it was</a> then, and many of the mergers were forced.</p>
<p>The current disputes and litigation do not challenge the basic idea that the state can force amalgamations. Rather, the challenges are about process: whether the NSW government followed the procedures set out in the act for things like studies, timing and public notice. </p>
<p>To resist mergers, councils will need to secure much wider support. As this week’s decision to abandon rural council mergers shows, political alliances can be successful in protecting local institutions. The coming state byelections in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-22/local-government-merger-campaigners-to-fight-liberals-in-manly/8201272">Manly</a>, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premier-gladys-berejiklian-prepares-for-north-shore-byelection-backlash-over-mergers-20170214-gucjy7.html">North Shore</a> and <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiPhrOJ7pXSAhVHVZQKHZFWB2sQFggZMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.smh.com.au%2Fnsw%2Fthird-byelection-as-gosford-mp-kathy-smith-resigns-from-parliament-20170213-guc32c&usg=AFQjCNEbThJXHU-FsK3RSRPgPdh4Hn4wag">Gosford</a> may give city councils opportunities to build on that support. </p>
<h2>Decision-making at the local level</h2>
<p>Control of local government is increasingly important. As state and national governments appear unable to deal with a growing number of pressing issues, cities in <a href="https://theconversation.com/coastal-communities-including-24-federal-seats-at-risk-demand-action-on-climate-threats-58764">Australia</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-mayors-are-looking-for-ideas-outside-the-city-limits-49870">internationally</a> have been key sites for leadership. </p>
<p>On issues from <a href="http://www.c40.org/ending-climate-change-begins-in-the-city">climate change</a> to <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/business-and-economy/london-living-wage">employment conditions</a>, local governments have proved nimble, innovative and responsive to local desires. The significance of amalgamations thus extends well beyond their immediate constituents. </p>
<p>Amalgamations may have advantages. Larger councils might be well placed to tackle issues like housing or public transport where the <a href="https://theconversation.com/states-drag-feet-on-affordable-housing-with-victoria-the-worst-72867">state has proved ineffective</a>. Or they might not. </p>
<p>In pushing scale without rethinking roles and responsibilities and, particularly, in its focus on dubious financial justifications, the NSW government has missed an opportunity. Rather than reflecting on and perhaps even revitalising local institutions and democracy more generally, the government has exacerbated the already high levels of mistrust between the state and councils and the public.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73118/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amelia Thorpe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The proposed amalgamation of 40 NSW councils has generated heated opposition. While public resistance has now won out in several regional communities, it’s a different story in the city.Amelia Thorpe, Senior Lecturer and Director of Environmental Law Programs, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/716232017-01-23T01:33:11Z2017-01-23T01:33:11ZNew NSW premier will have her hands full with issues that took the shine off Baird<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153767/original/image-20170123-30995-1d2c61n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gladys Berejiklian was elected unopposed to lead the NSW Liberal Party and become the state's next premier.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Moir</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Gladys Berejiklian is undoubtedly one of the best-prepared candidates to take over the premiership of New South Wales in modern times. The Liberal partyroom <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-23/gladys-berejiklian-to-replace-mike-baird-as-nsw-premier/8202820">confirmed her elevation</a> as party leader and premier on Monday morning, with Dominic Perrottet to serve as her deputy.</p>
<p>Most of Berejiklian’s successful predecessors – Neville Wran, Nick Greiner, Bob Carr and Barry O’Farrell, for example – came to the job with much less experience of government, relying on strong performances as opposition leader. Berejiklian has successfully managed two of the most difficult portfolios – transport and treasury – with responsibility for the Hunter and industrial relations thrown in for variety. She also has experience as a senior member of the team that won a landslide victory over Labor in 2011.</p>
<p>However, being well prepared does not guarantee an easy time in office. Berejiklian inherits a Liberal Party that was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/29/nsw-premier-mike-bairds-popularity-plummets-in-poll-after-greyhound-ban">losing public support</a> in the last year of Mike Baird’s administration. </p>
<p>A vague smell of corruption over Liberal Party electoral funding practices <a href="https://theconversation.com/electoral-commission-makes-a-stand-on-liberal-breaches-of-nsw-donations-laws-56920">also lingers</a>. This is helped along by the Coalition’s recent decision to restructure the management of the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) – a move many saw as designed to weaken the body that exposed those funding practices.</p>
<h2>Internal policy fights</h2>
<p>The NSW Liberal Party is still strongly factionalised at both the parliamentary and local level. O’Farrell was able to neutralise the influence of the radical right faction, while Baird promoted a raft of economic policies that were generally acceptable to the right. </p>
<p>If Berejiklian, who is from the left, wants to choose a different policy mix then she can expect the right will exert its influence. The right faction does not have any viable alternative leadership candidates of its own, but has a strong enough presence in the partyroom to make life difficult. </p>
<p>Berejiklian’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-23/gladys-berejiklian-where-does-she-stand-on-big-nsw-issues/8197238">stated intention</a> to concentrate on economic development issues should not have factional implications, although any more PR disaster projects <a href="https://theconversation.com/modelling-for-major-road-projects-is-at-odds-with-driver-behaviour-63603">like WestConnex</a> will not be well received. One of the interesting questions is how well she will be able to stare down opposition in the partyroom.</p>
<p>Berejiklian will certainly face a much less compliant National Party. This is a result of the recent shock defeat of the Nationals candidate at the recent <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/orange-by-election-2016/results/">Orange by-election</a>, attributed to a perception in rural areas that the Nationals had ignored the interests of rural communities when it allowed the Baird government to ban greyhound racing (a decision it later reversed).</p>
<p>As a result of the by-election loss the Nationals also have a new leader, John Barilaro. He seems to have learned the lessons of the defeat in Orange. </p>
<p>The first issue Berejiklian will face on that front is <a href="http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/4416562/mike-baird-resigns-and-now-john-barilaro-wants-to-stop-council-mergers/?cs=7">local council and shire amalgamations</a>. There will also be pressure to take a greater interest in the provision of good schools, hospitals and roads for country areas, which she should be able to accommodate without difficulty.</p>
<h2>The next election and the future</h2>
<p>Relations with the Nationals will be important as the next election approaches, since the Liberal Party is likely to be in deep trouble in its favoured electorates. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party’s success in Orange will certainly give it a higher profile in lower house seats. And the resurgence of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will result in contests in most – if not all – rural seats.</p>
<p>There have been strong challenges in some electorates from local independents in recent state elections. There will be no safe seats for the Nationals. </p>
<p>Fortunately for Berejiklian, Labor is not in a position to profit from this situation. The “Country Labor” brand has made little impact in country areas in recent elections.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, given there is currently a swing against the Coalition, and a tight election is likely, a hung parliament after the next election is a real possibility.</p>
<p>Although Labor under Luke Foley has improved its position quickly after the catastrophic election defeat in 2011, it does not offer a great threat to the Berejiklian. Labor cannot win from opposition unless the government makes a complete mess of things – as Baird was threatening to do.</p>
<p>Berejiklian is a more instinctive political animal than Baird. She is less ideological, more pragmatic and prepared to compromise, so one would expect her to consult more and spend more energy on convincing the electorate of the value of her political initiatives.</p>
<p>Overall, while local press, radio and TV commentators prefer Liberal to Labor politicians, and were initially supportive of O’Farrell and Baird, any apparent mistakes will be jumped on. But this premier is female.</p>
<p>After the overtly sexist trashing of Julia Gillard by Tony Abbott, and of Hillary Clinton by Donald Trump – both enthusiastically supported by right-wing media outlets – one has to wonder whether a female premier in NSW will be treated fairly. </p>
<p>Media handling of the state’s first female premier, Kristina Keneally, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/23/i-have-no-advice-for-gladys-berejiklian-but-i-do-have-some-for-the-media?CMP=share_btn_tw">wasn’t particularly friendly</a>, but that was not primarily because of her gender. It probably helps that Berejiklian is on the conservative side of politics. </p>
<p>Shock jock Alan Jones has <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/alan-jones-slams-incoming-nsw-premier-gladys-berejiklian/news-story/1fd2e507916c87645d67cac85730337a%5D">already fired</a> one broadside against her. But on this issue – as on many others – we will just have to wait and see.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71623/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Hogan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Gladys Berejiklian becomes NSW premier with a great deal of experience, but she needs to overcome several problems – internal and external – to arrest sliding polls.Michael Hogan, Associate Professor and Honorary Associate, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/715532017-01-19T01:13:27Z2017-01-19T01:13:27ZBaird’s early exit means NSW loses a leader whose best years were yet to come<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/153347/original/image-20170118-26548-1yeg0kd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mike Baird is to resign as NSW premier and retire as a state MP.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It used to be the case that participation in political life was considered to be a vocation, and that those who chose it were in it for the long haul, through thick and thin. The most prominent example of this in Australian history was <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/hughes-william-morris-billy-6761">Billy Hughes</a>. Even after he lost the prime ministership in early 1923 he continued to be a member of the House of Representatives until his death in 1952.</p>
<p>That has all changed. Mike Baird’s <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/premier-mike-baird-resigns/news-story/c23b24d808dccecc654741106f9f64f7">resignation</a>, both as New South Wales premier and from the state parliament, comes as somewhat of a shock. He is only 48, has been an MP for less than ten years and premier for less than three. One would have thought his best years in public life were ahead of him.</p>
<h2>No scandals and no internal ructions</h2>
<p>Baird has <a href="http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/01/19/11/00/familys-health-issues-came-at-a-strong-personal-cost">cited personal reasons</a> for his decision to leave politics, and one can well sympathise with him in regard to the health of his parents and sister. Public life is demanding and invariably takes a toll on the personal lives of those who participate in it.</p>
<p>One should point out, though, that this is the case in many occupations, including the law, high-level finance and executive positions in the public service.</p>
<p>Baird is the fifth NSW premier in the last ten years, and only one of them lost their job as the result of an election. His predecessor, Barry O’Farrell, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-16/nsw-premier-barry-ofarrell-to-resign-over-icac-grange-wine/5393478">resigned</a> in the wake of allegations he had failed to declare a bottle of Grange Hermitage as a gift.</p>
<p>One should ask if it is a good thing that the NSW premiership has been turned over so often in recent times. In this regard, it seems to resemble the <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-avoid-relegation-turnbull-must-restore-an-authority-missing-since-howard-47492">turnover at the federal level</a>.</p>
<p>Baird’s resignation was not caused by scandal or political machinations leading to him being overthrown. In his relatively short time as premier he has performed reasonably well. NSW has performed quite well in economic terms; there have been no issues in the area of power generation; and, as Baird points out, there has been infrastructure development.</p>
<p>Sure, there have been a few problems over the past year relating to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/huge-benefits-premier-mike-baird-champions-council-amalgamations-20161017-gs48e8.html">council amalgamations</a> and the attempt to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-11/greyhound-ban-baird-government-confirms-backflip/7921000">close down the greyhound industry</a>. Certainly 2016 was a much more difficult year for Baird than 2015.</p>
<h2>The great unknown</h2>
<p>One could argue, though, that the problems of 2016 could have been an important aspect of Baird’s political education, and one would have hoped it would make him a better and more effective premier. Alas, that is not to be the case.</p>
<p>Politicians like to argue that a political career is like any other career. This means they develop skills and capacities that make them good at their job. It also means they should become more effective the longer they spend in politics. </p>
<p>This was certainly the case with John Howard, who did not become prime minister until he had been in public life for more than 20 years.</p>
<p>In this regard we shall never know just how effective Baird might have been as a political leader. He became premier in 2014 and initially enjoyed <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/mike-baird-resigns-how-mr-popular-ended-up-on-the-scrapheap/8193616">considerable popularity</a>. He <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-28/live3a-2015-nsw-election-night/6354264">won an election</a>. And, like any political leader, he made a few mistakes that dinted his popularity. </p>
<p>At this stage, one would have expected that he would have taken advantage of his setbacks, as did Howard, to grow as political leader.</p>
<p>We will now not know the true capacities of Baird as a leader. Instead, a successor will have to take over and learn the ropes. It will be interesting to see how the NSW people react to yet another change in leadership.</p>
<p>The issue would seem to be that in the new world, for many politicians, a time in politics is just another stage in their careers as they progress to other things. This is not to deny that political life is a hard life. The problem may be the modern way of thinking of it as a career, as something one does just to satisfy ambition.</p>
<p>Australia, both federally and at the state level, needs good leadership if it is to thrive. Good leaders just don’t appear out of nowhere. They become good leaders by working hard and growing into their jobs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71553/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Melleuish receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Gregory is a member of the Academic Advisory board of the Menzies Research Centre.</span></em></p>Mike Baird is the fifth New South Wales premier in ten years, and only one of them lost their job to an election. There’s little time, it seems, to learn and grow as a political leader.Gregory Melleuish, Professor, School of Humanities and Social Inquiry, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/684902016-12-15T19:27:14Z2016-12-15T19:27:14ZNSW bail laws mean well but are landing homeless kids in prison<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/149809/original/image-20161213-1592-3xmrjp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some homeless youth facing criminal charges in NSW are being accommodated in prisons.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/69187071@N02/14661293083/in/photolist-okyXDe-n49Lc-jVAiNZ-81JCL1-8369Jd-8YxYDd-dXN62e-81FtLe-dXTKYf-6xHubk-81JA6w-dXTEmq-bquHLZ-oCkSyH-jVzBKp-eS2MWB-4vkDgi-7N6NAd-opp47E-82sbFp-7aopVg-bquGYH-bpwA57-6A7hgW-jVAnvi-4AdXXN-8YxYHb-pWcH5-dXN1YF-dXN1yn-dXTH6o-6rU2zs-dXTGmL-dXTEvC-6bwUVR-dXTFsA-eci1Nb-EdBVLh-dXTGd7-4m2Gu-n8xNGF-dXTGwb-83zxqq-dXTKEJ-dXN31x-dXTF65-8ZQTRs-qy2hW3-jVzzqp-jVzzNi">Adrian Fallace/flikr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every year in New South Wales, scores of children are locked up because they don’t have a safe place to live. About one-third of them are Indigenous; about half are in the care of the state. Some are fleeing domestic violence, others have a mental illness, or are waiting on a place in a refuge or rehab for a drug or alcohol addiction. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.justice.nsw.gov.au/Documents/Annual%20Reports/JusticeAnnualReport2015-16.pdf">NSW Department of Justice</a> reports that children charged with a criminal offence who were unable to meet their bail conditions were kept in custody on 67 occasions in 2015-16 alone.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.community.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/319921/endorsed_practice_guidelines.pdf">Under NSW law</a>, a child awaiting trial is presumed innocent of charges and has a right to be at liberty. So why are homeless kids ending up in custody?</p>
<p>In part, it’s because there’s section in NSW’s Bail Act that disadvantages these children. Despite being designed to protect children, it operates as an example of a policy that looks good on paper but, in reality, can have disastrous results.</p>
<h2>A well-meaning section of the NSW Bail Act</h2>
<p>Under Section 28 of the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ba201341/s28.html">Bail Act</a> a court may impose an “accommodation requirement” when granting bail – that is, bail is dependent on the child having suitable accommodation. If accommodation is not available, the child will not be released. </p>
<p>The law was designed to overcome the fact that <a href="http://www.juvenile.justice.nsw.gov.au/Documents/Annual%20Report%202007-08%20(part%201).pdf">hundreds of homeless children</a> each year were remanded in custody despite conditional bail having been granted.</p>
<p>Approximately 90% of them spent an <a href="http://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/33794/Executive_Summary_and_Recommendations_-_Special_Commission_of_Inquiry_into_Child_Protection_Services_in_New_South_Wales.pdf">average of eight days in custody</a> as a result.</p>
<p>Homeless children were often required to “to reside as FACS directs” – a bail condition that presupposed that Family and Community Services (FACS) would provide them with accommodation. </p>
<p>But the Children’s Court was unable to compel FACS to provide accommodation to children. As some commentators <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/CICrimJust/2009/18.pdf">have noted</a>, FACS either could not, or would not, find children accommodation and there was no legally enforceable obligation on it to do so. </p>
<p>According to one <a href="http://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/fapi/datastream/unsworks:38185/SOURCE02?view=true">NSW Children’s Court</a> judge: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the detention of such children … because they have no appropriate bail accommodation starkly demonstrates … how the criminal justice system may be inappropriately used for essentially welfare issues.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/DBAssets/InquiryReport/ReportAcrobat/5396/9%20to%2014%20Report%20Volume%201.pdf">NSW parliament</a> attributes this failure of support and care services to a dramatic increase in the juvenile remand population, which <a href="http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/CJB/cjb128.pdf">increased by one-third</a> between 2007 and 2008 alone.</p>
<h2>Section 28 has not fixed the problem</h2>
<p>Championed by the <a href="http://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/33794/Executive_Summary_and_Recommendations_-_Special_Commission_of_Inquiry_into_Child_Protection_Services_in_New_South_Wales.pdf">NSW Ombudsman</a> and many children’s advocates and legal representatives, Section 28 was meant to ensure that children were not turfed out onto the street or kept in jail because they hadn’t anywhere safe to go.</p>
<p>Anecdotally, bureaucrats and judicial officers say Section 28 is working because it puts pressure on agencies – such as FACS – to find children granted bail safe and suitable accommodation. But statistics show the proposed solution has failed many children who remain in custody. </p>
<p>The state still cannot be compelled to provide accommodation to homeless children. At best, the Children’s Court can only require agencies to report every two days on what progress has been made to find accommodation. If none has been found, the child remains in custody.</p>
<h2>An offence against UN and local laws</h2>
<p>Section 28 goes against UN <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/crc.aspx">Convention on the Rights of the Child</a>, the <a href="http://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/">Universal Declaration of Human Rights</a> and the <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/ccpr.aspx">International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights</a>. </p>
<p>It breaches a range of UN rules and guidelines: the <a href="http://www.un.org/documents/ga/res/40/a40r033.htm">Standard Minimum Rules for the Administration of Juvenile Justice </a> (the “Beijing Rules”), the <a href="http://www.un.org/documents/ga/res/45/a45r112.htm">Guidelines for the Prevention of Juvenile Delinquency</a> (the “Riyadh Guidelines”), and the <a href="http://www.un.org/documents/ga/res/45/a45r113.htm">Rules for the Protection of Juveniles Deprived of their Liberty</a>. </p>
<p>While some of these instruments are not enforceable in Australia, they hold considerable sway.</p>
<p>Section 28 also offends against local law. Section 6 of the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/cpa1987261/">NSW Children (Criminal Proceedings) Act</a>, for example, requires that the penalty imposed on a child for an offence should be no greater than that imposed upon an adult who commits an offence of a similar kind. </p>
<p>The effect of Section 28, however, is that a child without suitable accommodation may be detained in circumstances where a homeless adult, charged with a like offence would not. </p>
<h2>Children in out-of-home care are still disadvantaged</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.unsworks.unsw.edu.au/primo_library/libweb/action/dlDisplay.do?vid=UNSWORKS&docId=unsworks_38185">My research</a> shows children in state care – who make up less than 1% of the NSW population – are especially vulnerable to being incarcerated because they lack suitable accommodation. </p>
<p>I found that twice as many children in care had been homeless at some point in their lives, compared to children who had never been in care (48% to 22%). I also found that placement in care was no guarantee a child would receive stable, secure accommodation or assistance from the child welfare department. </p>
<p>This is a long-standing problem. In 1992, girls in care were <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/34862027?selectedversion=NBD9070474">40 times more likely</a> to be remanded in custody than girls who had never been in care, purely because they were unable to meet bail conditions related to their welfare status (poverty, homelessness, exposure to abuse and lack of agency support).</p>
<p>Last year, the <a href="http://www.csi.edu.au/research/project/cost-of-youth-homelessness/">largest survey of homeless youth in Australia</a> reported that two-thirds of children had been in care. NSW Premier Mike Baird has also said that people who had grown up in the care of the state make up <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mike-baird-announces-reform-to-states-broken-child-welfare-system-20161117-gsrbb6.html">60% of the homeless population</a>.</p>
<h2>The ‘university of crime’</h2>
<p>Being in custody, even for short periods of time, <a href="http://netk.net.au/Prisons/Prisons2.pdf">increases the likelihood of criminal behaviour</a>. Prisons are “universities of crime” where offenders can learn new techniques from their peers.</p>
<p>Prisons fracture community and family ties, may harden and brutalise inmates, and can worsen a person’s mental health. They can lead to physical and psychological hardship and the risk of assault or of death in custody. </p>
<p>The crime-producing effects continue post-incarceration: former inmates are labelled, de-skilled, less employable, and may rely on criminal networks established in custody to get by. They have access to benefits and social programs, and families of offenders and their communities may also be drawn into crime and the criminal justice system.</p>
<p>The UK’s Prison Reform Trust has described the detention of children in care for <a href="http://www.prisonreformtrust.org.uk/portals/0/documents/punishingdisadvantage.pdf">reasons unrelated to their offending</a>, such as homelessness or absconding, as a breach of the child welfare authorities’ statutory duty to protect and promote child welfare.</p>
<p>It is about time that NSW authorities were likewise held to account for their plans and policy tweaks that have achieved nothing to help our most vulnerable children stay out of jail.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68490/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kath McFarlane was Chief Investigator for a NSW Labor Government-awarded tender to Charles Sturt University to examine bail practices in the Children’s Court, and has advised on the Family & Community Services Pathways of Care study. In 2015 she was Chief of Staff to the NSW Coalition Minister for Family and Community Services.</span></em></p>Homeless children charged in NSW with a criminal offence who are unable to meet bail conditions are being kept in custody. It’s due, in part, to a well-meant but flawed section of the Bail Act.Katherine McFarlane, Senior Lecturer, Centre for Law & Justice, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/668432016-10-12T01:12:08Z2016-10-12T01:12:08ZEvangelical politics: the rise and fall of Mike Baird<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/141302/original/image-20161011-15662-157xb0a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mike Baird has announced a backdown on NSW's greyhound racing ban.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>I remember thinking, when Mike Baird replaced Barry O’Farrell as premier in April 2014, that the New South Wales Liberal Party had found a safe hand at the wheel. He was young, personable, with considerable experience in banking and business, and respected by both sides of an ideologically divided state Liberal Party.</p>
<p>I considered, at that stage, that his background as an evangelical Christian might even be an advantage. </p>
<p>Perhaps he would be honest and truthful – character traits not often prominent in NSW politics. Perhaps he would be aware of the core of the Christian message found in the sermon on the mount and bring those values into his government and administration.</p>
<p>As it happened, most of my expectations have failed to materialise. </p>
<p>On issue after issue – public hospitals, local government amalgamations, public housing, the lockout laws, and now the greyhound racing fiasco – his government’s decisions have demonstrated bad public policy, clumsy politics, or both. As American voters are finding with Donald Trump, experience in business does not necessarily translate to strong political leadership.</p>
<p>Surprisingly, Baird’s evangelical Christianity has had little impact on his administration. Left-wing Christians, who may have hoped for some social justice initiatives, would certainly be disappointed. Neither has Baird been prominent in promoting the agenda of the Christian Right. </p>
<p>His studies at a Vancouver bible college may affect his political style, but not the policy substance.</p>
<p>Yet Baird is a zealot – not in religious terms, but in his values of economic management. A student of the economics department at the University of Sydney when neoliberal values were completely dominant, he has accepted the dogmas of that faith more comprehensively than any other Australian political leader: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>government ownership is bad (let us sell the public hospitals); </p></li>
<li><p>government regulation in non-government enterprises is bad (if the greyhound industry can’t regulate itself, then it should be banned); and</p></li>
<li><p>the unfettered market will always produce the best public policy (if public housing is unprofitable then sell it off).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>These values are a matter of faith, and they lead to a personal conviction of the rightness of one’s decisions which is out of place in democratic politics. </p>
<p>Just to take <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-south-wales-overturns-greyhound-ban-a-win-for-the-industry-but-a-massive-loss-for-the-dogs-66822">the issue of greyhound racing</a> as an example, the original decision to ban the whole industry was bad policy because, of the many possible ways of tackling the greyhound industry’s problems, no distinction was made between the minority proportion of cowboys (and cowgirls) who were practising live-baiting and indiscriminate slaughter of animals, and the majority of owners and trainers who were not.</p>
<p>Banning should be the last remedy considered in any industry, not the first.</p>
<p>Equity would seem to demand that if the sins of greyhound owners and trainers merited such treatment, then so would those of the banking industry, the major Australian churches, and the horse racing fraternity, where the corporate sins are arguably worse. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-south-wales-overturns-greyhound-ban-a-win-for-the-industry-but-a-massive-loss-for-the-dogs-66822">revised decisions</a> announced on Tuesday are good policy – confronting some of the worst abuses directly, and leaving the threat of a later ban if significant changes are not forthcoming.</p>
<p>Also, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDj0RJdMAwQ">the banning decision</a> was bad politics. There was no attempt to prepare the ground for such a radical step nor to convince the public before it was announced – on Facebook. It was simply presented as the right thing to do.</p>
<p>The zealot demands that others should follow him. If Baird had consulted widely before he announced his decision he would have anticipated the massive campaign orchestrated by radio shock-jocks such as <a href="http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/10/11/09/23/alan-jones-warns-mike-baird-his-career-will-be-dead-in-the-water-if-greyhound-ban-not-reversed">Alan Jones</a> and the <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezview/admit-it-mike-baird-the-greyhound-racing-ban-has-been-a-terrible-mistake/news-story/dee245be9d2a15811c24a0a3b3d4c038">Daily Telegraph</a>.</p>
<p>But <a href="http://www.troygrant.com.au/">Deputy Premier Troy Grant</a> was even more out of touch; his willingness to support Baird in this is inexplicable except as truly inept politics. Did he not consider what his own backbenchers and constituents would say? Do local and regional issues really have so little concern for the leader of the Nationals? </p>
<p>Former premier O’Farrell, in contrast, while also an economic liberal, inclining to many of those same values, was never a zealot in his politics and would never have mishandled the greyhound issue in the way that Baird has done.</p>
<p>One final point. The mass media and the Labor opposition have been scornful of the Baird about-face. To my mind that is silly. All governments make policy mistakes and become aware of them only when unforeseen consequences occur. If they make bad policy then the right thing to do is correct it.</p>
<p>That Baird has had the strength to back down on something on which he has invested so much political capital suggests that he recognises the dangers of evangelical political leadership. Perhaps we shall see better policy and politics in the future as a result. Or perhaps not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Hogan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mike Baird’s political leadership style is evangelical – and it has landed him in hot water.Michael Hogan, Associate Professor and Honorary Associate, Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/643632016-09-12T03:31:17Z2016-09-12T03:31:17ZWhy moving out public housing tenants is a tragedy for Millers Point and for Sydney<p>In March 2014, New South Wales government minister Pru Goward <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-waterfront-public-housing-properties-to-be-sold-off-20140319-351fs.html">announced</a> that all of the 293 public housing dwellings in Millers Point, Dawes Point and the Rocks, as well as the 79 apartments in the <a href="http://millerspointcommunity.com.au/the-place/sirius/">Sirius Building</a> built for public housing in the 1970s, were to be sold. Their tenants would be moved. At first, residents felt they could fight the removal, but over time most have capitulated. </p>
<p>The stress and the not knowing what would happen were too difficult to bear. An ex-Millers Point resident (he had been in the same house for 36 years) explained:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We fought it at first you know. We thought this is terrible. They can’t do this to us. Well actually we don’t own the houses. They’ve got you by the balls, so to speak, and we just faced the fact that we’re going to have to move …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In July 2016, the Department of Family and Community Services reported that only <a href="http://clearinghousetunsw.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/update-sales-of-millers-point-properties.html">42 tenants were left to move</a>.</p>
<h2>How does the government justify the move?</h2>
<p>The Baird government has justified its decision on two main grounds. </p>
<p>The first is that the money from the sale would be used to build <a href="https://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/reforms/social-housing/millers-point/sales-and-reinvestment-into-additional-social-housing">1,500 new social housing dwellings</a> and thereby reduce the NSW public housing waiting list of 59,000 households. </p>
<p>A related argument is that maintaining the Millers Point homes – many are more than 100 years old – cost <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-waterfront-public-housing-properties-to-be-sold-off-20140319-351fs.html">four times more</a> than for the average public housing dwelling and was thus untenable.</p>
<p>These justifications may have some legitimacy if the move is assessed solely through an economic prism. However, this is a limited and questionable approach. </p>
<h2>Reasons to respect residents and heritage</h2>
<p>The historical, social and moral reasons for retaining at least part of Millers Point and the whole of the Sirius Building for public housing are compelling.</p>
<p>First, Millers Point has a rich and unique history. The Heritage Council recognised this in 1999 when it declared the area a Heritage site. <a href="http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/heritageapp/ViewHeritageItemDetails.aspx?ID=5001049">The Office of Environment and Heritage</a> concluded:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Millers Point Conservation Area is an intact residential and maritime precinct of outstanding state and national significance …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The 1999 assessment of significance went on to state:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Its unity, authenticity of fabric and community, and complexity of significant activities and events make it probably the rarest and most significant historic urban place in Australia.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The removal has already severely undermined this uniqueness. It is likely that the physical fabric of the area will be constantly eroded as the new owners endeavour to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/heritage-rules-scrapped-for-millers-point-buyers-20140811-102xqc.html">evade any heritage demands</a>.</p>
<p>A second reason for retaining at least some public housing in Millers Point and reserving the Sirius Building for public housing tenants is that the removal will mean that another neighbourhood in Sydney will become an enclave for wealthy households. This will further cement the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/and-the-winner-for-most-polarised-city-is-133/2008/02/15/1202760599504.html">spatial division of the city</a> based on social class.</p>
<p>At the end of July 2016, the NSW government <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sirius-building-will-not-receive-heritage-listing-nsw-government-declares-20160731-gqhp0f.html">refused to grant heritage status</a> to the Sirius Building despite the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-praise-of-the-sirius-building-a-ruined-remnant-of-idealistic-times-63387">Heritage Council recommending this</a>. The decision was justified on the basis that a heritage listing would <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sirius-building-will-not-receive-heritage-listing-nsw-government-declares-20160731-gqhp0f.html">reduce its value by A$70 million</a>.</p>
<p>A third objection relates to the human cost of the move. The government’s insistence that all of the residents have to move out of their homes, whatever their history, age and disability, has been viewed as particularly harsh. </p>
<h2>Who considers the human toll?</h2>
<p>In March 2016, I interviewed a 91-year-old ex-Sirius Building resident who had been moved. He did know anybody in his new location and was totally isolated.</p>
<p>Mary, who has lived in the area for around 55 years, is refusing to move. She described the devastating psychological impact of the government’s intentions:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I don’t think I’ve been the same person, emotionally you know. I’ve been a bit of a nervous wreck. I’ve been angry and can’t sleep … So you just think, “What’s life all about?”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In November 2015, the government agreed to renovate existing stock and create <a href="http://tunswblog.blogspot.com.au/2015/11/nsw-government-you-can-do-better-than.html">28 apartments</a> (24 were one-bedroom, one is two-bedroom and three are three-bedroom) to accommodate Millers Point residents who were refusing to move. However, most of the residents had moved by the time of this announcement.</p>
<p>Most of those who remained felt the units <a href="http://tunswblog.blogspot.com.au/2016/02/endgame-for-millers-point.html">were too small</a> and not suitable for older, more frail residents. By August 2016, only 13 of the units <a href="http://clearinghousetunsw.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/update-sales-of-millers-point-properties.html">had been occupied</a>.</p>
<p>What the remaining residents are demanding is that they, and especially the elderly among them, be allowed to stay in Millers Point in their present homes or alternatives ones that they have identified as suitable. Their lives are totally enmeshed with the area.</p>
<h2>State enjoys windfall, tenants lose out</h2>
<p>At the beginning of August 2016, 94 Millers Point properties had been <a href="https://www.finance.nsw.gov.au/about-us/media-releases/social-housing-benefit-sale-four-millers-point-terraces">sold for $264 million</a>, with a median sale price of $2.48 million per dwelling. If the trend continues, it is estimated that the sale will realise $884 million, nearly $400 million more than the government’s projection of $500 million.</p>
<p>Residents posed the obvious questions: why can’t some of this largesse be used to repair the public housing dwellings, which they argue have been severely neglected? And why is the building of more public housing solely dependent on the sale of public housing in Millers Point and the Sirius Building? </p>
<p>Surely, the building of social housing should be financed by general revenue. This question becomes more pressing in light of the NSW government having a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-budget-2016-surpluses-ahead-but-gst-payments-to-collapse-20160620-gpn2vm.html">budget surplus of $3.4 billion</a> in 2015-16, which is forecast to grow to $3.7 billion in 2016-17. </p>
<p>The surplus is mainly due to the property boom in Sydney since mid-2013. Revenue from <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-budget-2016-surpluses-ahead-but-gst-payments-to-collapse-20160620-gpn2vm.html">stamp duty totalling $8.9 billion</a> in 2016-17 is predicted to rise to $9.8 billion in 2019-20.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100737740">just city</a> is premised on democratic decision-making, the maintenance of diversity and social mix, and the dissipating of inequality. The removal of Millers Point residents and the decision to sell off and demolish the Sirius Building has been an intensely undemocratic process. Residents’ requests for a genuine dialogue and compromise have been largely ignored. </p>
<p>The move will intensify the already severe spatial divide between rich and poor in Sydney. The social mix that is a feature of Millers Point will be obliterated along with its rich history – an irreversible tragedy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Morris has undertaken research for Shelter New South Wales.</span></em></p>The state is ignoring historical, social and moral reasons to keep public housing in Heritage areas of Sydney. Its sell-off will further divide the city between rich and poor and end a rich history.Alan Morris, Chair Professor, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/645472016-08-30T07:04:39Z2016-08-30T07:04:39ZAfter Operation Spicer, what more needs to be done to clean up political donations in NSW?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135903/original/image-20160830-28244-1m2hxfv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former police minister Mike Gallacher is one of a number of current and former MPs to be caught up in Operation Spicer.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New South Wales Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) has handed down <a href="http://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/docman/investigations/reports-1/4865-investigation-into-nsw-liberal-party-electoral-funding-for-the-2011-state-election-campaign-and-other-matters-operation-spicer/file">its report</a> on illegal political donations from property developers during the 2011 state election, dubbed Operation Spicer. </p>
<p>In Operation Spicer, ICAC investigated allegations that the NSW Liberals used associated entities to disguise donations from donors banned in the state, such as property developers, in exchange for favouring the interests of the donors. The money was channelled back to state campaign coffers. </p>
<h2>What does the report recommend?</h2>
<p>ICAC confirmed the NSW Liberals used two entities, the Free Enterprise Foundation and Eightbyfive, to “launder” banned political donations from developers and channel the money back to the NSW election campaign. </p>
<p>ICAC was hampered by a <a href="http://www.hcourt.gov.au/cases/case_s302-2014">High Court challenge</a> to its jurisdiction, which meant it was unable to make findings of corrupt conduct for breaches of electoral laws. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, ICAC found former Labor MP Joseph Tripodi engaged in serious corrupt conduct. He misused his position as a MP to improperly provide an advantage to property developer Buildev, which wanted to create a fifth coal terminal at the port of Newcastle. Tripodi helped Buildev with this, and leaked confidential government information in the hope he could secure future personal benefit from the company.</p>
<p>ICAC recommended the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) charge former energy minister Chris Hartcher for an offence of larceny. ICAC found Hartcher had stolen A$4,000 of donations to the NSW Liberal Party for his own personal use. He had also orchestrated a scheme where banned donations were “laundered” through an entity called Eightbyfive. </p>
<p>ICAC also recommended the DPP prosecute Samantha Brookes, Andrew Cornwell, Tim Gunasinghe, Tim Koelma and Bill Saddington for giving false or misleading evidence to the commission.</p>
<p>ICAC also found nine state MPs acted with the intention of evading election funding laws: Hartcher, Cornwell, Mike Gallacher, Chris Spence, Tim Owen, Garry Edwards, Bart Bassett, Craig Baumann and Darren Webber. It also made similar findings about property developer and former Newcastle lord mayor Jeff McCloy, and former Australian Water Holdings CEO Nick Di Girolamo. </p>
<p>In the hearings, McCloy <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/i-feel-like-a-walking-atm-newcastle-lord-mayor-jeff-mccloy-admits-giving-tens-of-thousands-of-dollars-to-liberal-candidates-20140813-103plf.html">infamously said</a> he felt like a walking ATM and admitted to ICAC that he made illegal donations by giving envelopes stuffed with $10,000 in cash to three MPs before the 2011 election. He then rather shamelessly <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/jeff-mccloy-apologises-over-paper-bag-birthday-cake-20141013-1159ko.html">posted photos</a> of himself with a birthday cake shaped as a brown paper bag overflowing with cash.</p>
<h2>What are the issues with the NSW political donations system?</h2>
<p>Operation Spicer is part of a broader problem with NSW’s system of political donations. </p>
<p>Within the span of two years, ICAC has undertaken nine investigations into alleged corrupt conduct by NSW government ministers. The investigations sparked the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-premier-barry-ofarrell-resigns-20140416-36qwv.html">resignation of Barry O’Farrell</a> as premier over a bottle of wine, and caused ten MPs to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-02/political-scalps-of-nsw-icac/5427260">resign or leave</a> the Liberal Party. </p>
<p>The scandals have raised questions about political donations and the role of lobbyists. The concern is that money can buy political access or influence. This is amply borne out by ICAC inquiries laying bare that politicians have acted to secure policy benefits for lobbyists or those who have opened their wallets to them.</p>
<p>Although NSW has <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-does-our-political-donations-system-work-and-is-it-any-good-60159">one of the strongest</a> political donations regimes in Australia, it can be evaded. There are loopholes and inconsistencies in political donations laws across the nation.</p>
<h2>Is this enough to fix our political donations system?</h2>
<p>There are a few necessary ingredients for effective regulation of any political donations system. </p>
<p>The first is the ability to uncover any illegal donations that have occurred. ICAC has done admirably well in bringing to light some shady dealings that would have otherwise been hidden. There is thus a strong case to introduce a federal ICAC, so these issues can be uncovered federally as well. </p>
<p>The next is an effective set of laws to regulate this area. In the wake of these scandals, the NSW government has introduced <a href="http://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/acts/2014-30.pdf">new legislation</a> regulating lobbyists and tightening political donation rules. But there is still no consistency in political donations laws across Australia.</p>
<p>Just as important is the enforcement of any breaches of law. The NSW Electoral Commission has <a href="https://theconversation.com/electoral-commission-makes-a-stand-on-liberal-breaches-of-nsw-donations-laws-56920">sprung into action</a> and become more active in pursuing breaches of electoral laws. It penalised the Liberal Party for breaching electoral rules <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-23/electoral-comm-defends-decision-to-withdraw-funding-from-libs/7435900">by withholding</a> $4.4 million in public funding from the party.</p>
<p>The electoral commission has also <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-former-liberal-mps-forced-to-repay-illegal-donations-20160829-gr3tcv.html">recently issued</a> letters of demand to politicians involved in Operation Spicer to repay the illegal donations. The <a href="http://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/inforce/27ca53b3-96cb-6b43-f472-a3bac3e2f368/1981-78.pdf">law</a> allows the commission to recover any unlawful donations, and double that amount if the politician knew it was unlawful.</p>
<p>The reforms to date and increased enforcement of breaches of electoral law do improve the NSW system. But we need a more holistic solution to this problem at the federal level to stamp out the corruption in our political system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yee-Fui Ng has co-written a commissioned report for the New South Wales Electoral Commission on lobbying regulation. </span></em></p>There are a few necessary ingredients for the effective regulation of any political donations system.Yee-Fui Ng, Lecturer, Graduate School of Business and Law, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/644222016-08-30T00:26:52Z2016-08-30T00:26:52ZSince when were liberals authoritarian wowsers? Mike Baird exposes today’s Liberal Party confusion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135574/original/image-20160826-6599-az628c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It would seem to be the case that Mike Baird needs a refresher course in liberalism.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Joel Carrett</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the major issues facing the Liberal Party in the 21st century is what liberalism means today. At one level the answer should be simple: liberalism is about liberty and the ability of the individual to do as they please so long as they do not harm others.</p>
<p>Consider this statement from early 20th-century Australia:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>To compel people to wear a particular kind of dress, live in a certain kind of house, eat certain foods, and drink, or abstain from drinking, certain liquids, are all interferences with liberty, justifiable only when freedom, happiness and welfare of the general community cannot be secured without it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A statement of principle from a card-carrying liberal? No, it is actually a passage from prime minister Billy Hughes’ <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/10453758?selectedversion=NBD601423">The Case for Labor</a> after he had extolled the greatness of John Stuart Mill’s <a href="http://www.utilitarianism.com/ol/one.html">On Liberty</a>. It demonstrates how much liberal principles have pervaded Australian political culture.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, liberal ideals of liberty have sometimes been confused with other less liberal ideas, in particular the idea that legislation can be made to create “better people” and the idea that efficiency rather than liberty is what matters. These may be classified as false liberal principles.</p>
<p>An example of the attempt by liberals to create “better people” were the various schemes to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/overnights/the-history-of-temperance-in-australia/7717210">limit the consumption of alcohol</a> in the early 20th century. As many Australian liberals were also good Protestants they disapproved of a whole range of behaviours, ranging from the demon drink to gambling.</p>
<p>Liberty also became confused with efficiency because it was assumed a free individual would not squander and waste their freedom but behave in a manner that used their capacities in the most efficient and effective way possible. Liberty meant more than just doing as one pleased.</p>
<p>This leads us to Mike Baird and his actions as New South Wales premier. One should ask questions regarding the extent to which he has acted according to liberal principles or false liberal principles.</p>
<h2>Greyhound ban</h2>
<p>Consider first Baird’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-20/greyhound-racing-ban-nsw-explained/7622052">banning of greyhound racing</a> in the state. This is quite an extraordinary policy; it will destroy a whole industry. </p>
<p>That there were some abuses is undeniable, but closing down all greyhound racing rather than instituting reforms seems excessive, to put it mildly.</p>
<p>Why did he do it? It certainly looks like a manifestation of virtue signalling, with Baird attempting to earn a reputation as a “moral person”. </p>
<p>It was a move that will not cause any harm to core Liberal supporters on the North Shore and Sydney’s eastern suburbs. Most greyhound tracks in NSW are in regional and rural areas. I have two near me, at Dapto and Bulli. It is a country, working-class form of entertainment. </p>
<p>This move has a smell about it of “let’s teach those rednecks a lesson”, just as the Liberal Party a century ago wanted to <a href="https://theconversation.com/lockout-laws-repeat-centuries-old-mistake-of-denying-value-of-cities-as-messy-places-58281">control the drinking behaviour</a> of the “lower orders”.</p>
<p>The point is that this sort of policy is not founded on liberal principles. Rather, it is an expression of the idea of “making better people” by weaning them off their supposedly cruel and barbaric practices. But, as former federal Labor leader Mark Latham has pointed out, the end of greyhound racing <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/mark-latham-fears-legalised-genocide/news-story/7fa7b51d05981d86c0e73fb5118a29c2">will also mean</a> the end of greyhounds, as the breed was developed purely for racing.</p>
<p>It is an expression of what French historian Emmanuel Todd <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=eFi-CgAAQBAJ&dq=Zombie+Protestantism&source=gbs_navlinks_s">has called</a> “zombie Protestantism”. Protestant religious belief may have declined but its values remain, especially the hope that governments should act to eradicate sin in the community. But then sin is always what people not like us do.</p>
<p>The other worrying thing about Baird’s ban on greyhound racing is <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/more-sports/nsw-greyhound-racing-industry-to-be-shut-down-from-2017/news-story/deecdec3239d259d9d870b93ebd0a961">the way in which he did it</a>, announcing it on Facebook before <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-14/greyhound-ban-decision-not-based-on-class-warfare-premier-says/7628598">going on holidays</a>. Having made the decision, he decided he was <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ-M0KEFm9I">“not for turning”</a> and simply stonewalled in the face of <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/labor-to-oppose-nsw-greyhounds-ban/news-story/db78a7ed339788736ec45f657f2c6b37">considerable opposition</a>. He wanted to be seen as strong as well as moral; or perhaps authoritarian and paternalistic.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135718/original/image-20160829-17862-181zigk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135718/original/image-20160829-17862-181zigk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135718/original/image-20160829-17862-181zigk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135718/original/image-20160829-17862-181zigk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135718/original/image-20160829-17862-181zigk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135718/original/image-20160829-17862-181zigk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135718/original/image-20160829-17862-181zigk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mike Baird’s ban on greyhound racing will destroy a whole industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Moir</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Local council mergers</h2>
<p>The second policy that calls Baird’s liberal credentials into question has been <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-council-amalgamations-announced-by-premier-mike-baird-20160512-gotczo.html">his amalgamations</a> of many – but not all – local councils. </p>
<p>For any liberal there is a general principle that local matters should be dealt with at a local level, because locals have the best knowledge of what needs to be done. Even the Catholic Church believes in the <a href="http://www.socialjustice.catholic.org.au/social-teaching">principle of subsidiarity</a>, which also means local issues require local involvement.</p>
<p>Amalgamating councils is justified on the principle of efficiency; that larger councils will be more efficient and less wasteful than smaller ones. This may or <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-mergers-make-for-better-councils-the-evidence-is-against-bigger-is-better-for-local-government-56813">may not be the case</a>. If one puts together two inefficient and incompetent councils the result may well be simply a larger incompetent council. It is difficult to see how amalgamations will solve the problem of council inefficiency.</p>
<p>However, larger – and more remote – bodies are most certainly not in line with liberal principles. They simply confuse liberty and efficiency, which are most certainly not the same thing.</p>
<p>However, the council amalgamations were certainly sold to the public as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-council-mergers-and-reforms-imperil-local-government-democracy-56014">supposed improvement in NSW’s democratic governance</a>. On what basis, one might ask.</p>
<p>As in the case of the abolition of greyhound racing, Baird attempted to sell a policy that is antithetical to liberty on the basis that it would somehow enhance our liberty. No, it does not – it is a creeping authoritarianism.</p>
<p>Perhaps Baird should go back and read Billy Hughes, who, after all, was the longest-serving parliamentarian in Australian history – and he was on Baird’s side much longer than he was on the Labor side.</p>
<p>It would seem to be the case that Baird needs a refresher course in liberalism. Liberalism is not about “improving the people” by banning their entertainments, nor should it be confused with creating larger bureaucratic entities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gregory Melleuish receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Academic Advisory Board of the Menzies Research Centre.</span></em></p>In office, to what extent has New South Wales Premier Mike Baird acted according to liberal principles?Gregory Melleuish, Associate Professor, School of History and Politics, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.