tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/paris-climate-accord-39245/articlesParis climate accord – The Conversation2024-01-12T13:28:25Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2180102024-01-12T13:28:25Z2024-01-12T13:28:25ZBiden, like Trump, sidesteps Congress to get things done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568634/original/file-20240110-21-zk1t05.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C4%2C3008%2C2032&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-combination-of-pictures-created-on-september-29-2020-news-photo/1228795132?adppopup=true">Jim Watson,Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With two presidents – one current and one former – running against each other <a href="https://theconstitutionalist.org/2023/02/12/can-trump-pull-a-cleveland/">for the first time since 1912</a>, the 2024 election presents voters with the unique opportunity to compare how Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, who are <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/potential-rematch-between-biden-and-trump-in-2024-could-shake-up-american-politics">each likely to get their party’s nomination</a>, actually used the authority of the presidency. </p>
<p>Examining Biden and Trump from this perspective, it’s clear that while they pursued vastly different policies, they often used presidential power in remarkably similar ways.</p>
<p>Both Trump and Biden have tried to achieve their policy goals in ways that avoided having to get Congress’ cooperation. There are a few exceptions, with major legislation passed early in the presidents’ terms when they had a unified government – Trump with the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-to-sign-tax-bill-before-leaving-for-holiday/">2017 tax cuts</a> and Biden with the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/11/15/1055841358/biden-signs-1t-bipartisan-infrastructure-bill-into-law">2021 infrastructure bill</a> and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/inflation-reduction-act-guidebook/#:%7E:text=On%20August%2016%2C%202022%2C%20President,change%20in%20the%20nation%27s%20history.">2022 Inflation Reduction Act</a>.</p>
<p>But more frequently, they aimed to accomplish their objectives either through their power over the executive branch and administrative agencies or in foreign policy, where a president possesses more discretion than in domestic affairs.</p>
<p>Such similarities in men who could not be more different in their political values and policy priorities naturally raise the question: Why do Trump and Biden seem so alike in how they are using presidential power? <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=9I_KwakAAAAJ&hl=en">As a scholar</a> who studies how the constitutional structure of American political institutions effects the authority and behavior of individuals operating within those institutions, I see these similarities as being driven by the fact that, as presidents, they faced the same incentives and constraints.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a suit, seated at a desk, holding up a signed document and flanked by two other men in suits who are standing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568655/original/file-20240110-23-axkvme.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Donald Trump holds up a signed executive order on June 24, 2019, to increase sanctions on Iran, flanked by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, left, and Vice President Mike Pence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TrumpExecutiveOrders/a89440a71ec14f0384a2f0d9dda60685/photo?Query=Trump%20executive%20order%20visa%20muslim&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1309&digitizationType=Digitized&currentItemNo=NaN&vs=true&vs=true">AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File</a></span>
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<h2>Policy through executive order</h2>
<p>One place where this similarity is particularly evident is in the number and scope of Trump’s and Biden’s executive orders, which recent presidents have used to order administrative agencies to enact particular policies unilaterally. </p>
<p>Through their first three years in office, the two presidents issued a comparable number of executive orders – <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions">127 for Biden</a> <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders">and 137 for Trump</a>, often for major policy objectives. </p>
<p>For example, Trump’s infamous 2017 “Muslim ban” restricting the immigration into the U.S. of people from several majority-Muslim countries, as well as immigrants from Venezuela and North Korea, was instituted through two <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/02/01/2017-02281/protecting-the-nation-from-foreign-terrorist-entry-into-the-united-states">executive</a> <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/03/09/2017-04837/protecting-the-nation-from-foreign-terrorist-entry-into-the-united-states">orders</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, Biden’s sweeping effort <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/#:%7E:text=Forgive%20loan%20balances%20after%2010,debt%2Dfree%20within%2010%20years.">in 2022</a> to <a href="https://www.nasfaa.org/news-item/27820/Answering_the_10_000_Question_Biden_Takes_Executive_Action_on_Student_Loan_Cancellation_Extends_Repayment_Pause">cancel student loan debt</a> was also initiated through an executive order. </p>
<p>In foreign policy, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/15/trump-abraham-accords-palestinians-peace-deal-415083">Trump was able to conclude the Abraham Accords</a> in 2020, normalizing relations between Israel and several Middle Eastern nations. He also unilaterally pulled <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/climate/trump-paris-climate-agreement.html">out of the Paris climate accord</a> in 2017 without congressional input. </p>
<p>When Biden entered office in 2020, he reversed Trump’s action and <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/">reentered the Paris climate accord</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/31/us/politics/biden-defends-afghanistan-withdrawal.html">ended the war in Afghanistan</a> by withdrawing U.S. troops there.</p>
<h2>Trouble in the party</h2>
<p>One reason for the two presidents’ similar exercise of executive power is the circumstances of their presidencies. </p>
<p>Despite their differences, Trump and Biden have faced many of the same isolating conditions that prevent them from achieving great victories through legislation, which forced them to act in those areas where presidential power is stronger. </p>
<p>While <a href="https://spia.uga.edu/faculty_pages/carson/forum17.pdf">both had</a> <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/usa_us-politics_control-white-house-and-congress-democrats-have-2-years-make-big-changes/6201047.html">unified government</a> in the first half of their terms with their party controlling both houses of Congress, both of their parties were internally fractured. </p>
<p>Trump’s attempt to repeal President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act was <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-gop-effort-repeal-obamacare-fails-n787311">famously torpedoed</a> by a dramatic thumbs-down from Republican Sen. John McCain. </p>
<p>These Republican fractures became even more evident as Trump’s presidency wore on. One crucial example of this division: Trump was the only president to have <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/14/956621191/these-are-the-10-republicans-who-voted-to-impeach-trump">members of his own party</a> <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/trump-impeachment-trial-live-updates/2021/02/15/967878039/7-gop-senators-voted-to-convict-trump-only-1-faces-voters-next-year">vote for his removal</a> from office in his two historic impeachments. </p>
<p>Biden has been forced to deal with the consistent threat of potential defections from Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. To get their crucial votes, he had to substantially <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-kyrsten-sinema-joe-manchin-congress-c0d40a6f2490b2613a690995daca7e11">water down</a> his “Build Back Better” infrastructure bill. </p>
<p>Sinema has since left the Democratic Party to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/kyrsten-sinema-is-becoming-an-independent-what-does-that-mean-for-the-senate">become an independent</a>, and Manchin is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/joe-manchin-absolutely-considering-2024-presidential-run-he-says">exploring a third-party run for president</a> against Biden. The <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/joe-manchin-switching-party-democrat-independent-senate-slim-majority-1819160">Democrats’ Senate majority is too slim</a> to allow the White House to ignore either of these troublesome senators.</p>
<p>After the midterm elections, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-divided-government-means-for-washington-11668642809">both presidents found</a> <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/health-care-trump-animate-voters-survey-shows-1541548869">themselves facing divided government</a>, with the House of Representatives held by the opposing party. </p>
<p>The House in both cases was not afraid to flex its muscle against the president, freely employing its impeachment authority against both of them. They <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/18/us/politics/trump-impeached.html">impeached Trump</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/us/politics/trump-impeached.html">twice</a> and have opened an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-impeachment-inquiry-house-republicans-51576c5fe4294be2605a14fa81075196">impeachment inquiry</a> against Biden, which may soon lead to a formal impeachment vote.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young girl sits at a table holding a pen, surrounded by adults." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568664/original/file-20240110-29-4iicgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Gianna Floyd, the daughter of George Floyd, holds a pen used by U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House on May 25, 2022, to sign an executive order enacting further police reform.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/gianna-floyd-the-daughter-of-george-floyd-holds-a-pen-used-news-photo/1399292579?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>The Constitution rules</h2>
<p>Both presidents have been similarly unpopular with Americans. According to Gallup, both presidents had an <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx">average approval rating of 43%</a> in the third year of their administrations, and this unpopularity has meant that neither Trump nor Biden has been able to effectively utilize the bully pulpit to force change.</p>
<p>In these conditions, it is no surprise that Trump and Biden turned to the one source of power still available to them: the Constitution. </p>
<p>The structure of American political institutions, <a href="https://www.usa.gov/branches-of-government#:%7E:text=Learn%20about%20the%20executive%2C%20legislative,will%20have%20too%20much%20power.">set up by the Constitution</a>, affects the authority and behavior of individuals operating within those institutions. With that in mind, it is apparent that the policy successes and failures of the Trump and Biden administrations have largely lined up with the powers that the Constitution does and does not give presidents. </p>
<p>With Congress either too obstinate or too polarized to act on the president’s agenda, a president will naturally use the tools that are available to him. The Constitution dictates that those tools are primarily found in administrative actions and foreign policy.</p>
<p>By looking at the Trump and Biden administrations from this constitutional perspective, it’s clear how, despite the hyperpolarization of our politics, the Constitution continues to be influential in the power it grants presidents operating without the cooperation of Congress. </p>
<p>Trump and Biden are very different presidents. Yet, in working from the same constitutional toolbox, they used the means available to their office in similar ways, even in the pursuit of very dissimilar ends.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218010/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordan Cash does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Biden and Trump are polar opposites when it comes to policy. But they have wielded the power of the presidency in similar ways.Jordan Cash, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1646802021-08-04T12:33:04Z2021-08-04T12:33:04ZBiden restores roadless protection to the Tongass, North America’s largest rainforest<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506676/original/file-20230126-23261-4wm1yv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C7%2C4977%2C3315&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A bald eagle on Baranof Island in Alaska's Tongass National Forest.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bald-eagle-is-sitting-on-a-moss-covered-tree-in-the-forest-news-photo/1176547464">Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ask people to find the world’s rainforests on a globe, and most will probably point to South America. But North America has rainforests too – and like their tropical counterparts, these <a href="https://www.wilderness.org/articles/blog/hidden-treasures-americas-rainforests">temperate rainforests</a> are ecological treasures.</p>
<p>The Biden administration finalized a rule on Jan. 25, 2023, that <a href="https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2023/01/25/biden-harris-administration-finalizes-protections-tongass-national">restores roadless protection</a> to more than 9 million acres of the <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/tongass/">Tongass National Forest</a>, keeping this land free from road-building and logging. The Tongass is the largest intact temperate rainforest in the world and the biggest U.S. national forest. It spreads over more than 26,000 square miles (67,340 square kilometers) – roughly the size of West Virginia – and covers most of southeast Alaska. It has thousands of watersheds and fjords, and more than a thousand forested islands. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413851/original/file-20210729-25-17y9up4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map overlaying Alaska on the continental U.S." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413851/original/file-20210729-25-17y9up4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413851/original/file-20210729-25-17y9up4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413851/original/file-20210729-25-17y9up4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413851/original/file-20210729-25-17y9up4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413851/original/file-20210729-25-17y9up4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413851/original/file-20210729-25-17y9up4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413851/original/file-20210729-25-17y9up4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Alaska’s national forests, the Chugach and the Tongass, compared with the lower 48 states.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.fs.fed.us/wildflowers/regions/alaska/index.php">USFS</a></span>
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<p>For over 20 years, the Tongass has been at the center of political battles over two key conservation issues: <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-old-growth-forests/">old-growth logging</a> and designating large forest zones as <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/roadless-rules">roadless areas</a> to prevent development. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J2KWqAoAAAAJ&hl=en">scientist specializing in forest ecosystems</a>, I see protecting the Tongass as the kind of bold action that’s needed to address <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2021/06/tackling-biodiversity-climate-crises-together-and-their-combined-social-impacts/">climate change and biodiversity loss</a>.</p>
<h2>An ecological gem</h2>
<p>The Tongass as we know it today began forming at the end of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/small-climate-changes-can-have-devastating-local-consequences-it-happened-in-the-little-ice-age-164916">Little Ice Age</a> in the mid-1700s, which left much of what is now southern Alaska as barren land. Gradually, the area repopulated with plants and animals to become a swath of diverse, rich old-growth forests. President Theodore Roosevelt designated the Tongass as a forest reserve in 1902, and then as a national forest in 1907. </p>
<p>The Tongass is the <a href="https://www.indianz.com/News/2019/10/21/respect-alaska-tribes-rights-on-the-tong.asp">traditional homeland</a> of the Tlingit, Haida and Tsimshian people. It is named for the Tongass group of the Tlingit people, who have continuously occupied the area for <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/main/tongass/about-forest">over 10,000 years</a>. </p>
<p>Alaska Natives relied on the forest’s rich diversity of plants and animals for their survival and traditions. Today the Tongass has abundant populations of animals that have become uncommon in other parts of the U.S., such as brown bears and wolves. </p>
<p>Most of the <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/inside-fs/tongass-state-alaska-work-together-maintain-water-quality-all">900 watersheds</a> within the Tongass are in near-natural condition. This ensures that they can provide habitat for many wild species and recover from or adapt to stresses, such as warmer temperatures due to climate change. They support salmon that spawn in the forest’s creeks and rivers, <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/home/library/pdfs/ak_wild_salmon.pdf">providing food for bears, eagles and other predators</a>. Such ecosystems are incredibly rare around the world today. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Tongass National Forest is home to bears, bald eagles and five species of salmon.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>How roads threaten forests</h2>
<p>Intact old-growth forests, with trees hundreds of years old, are essential for carbon storage, biodiversity and climate resilience. They have fully developed root systems that can reach water in deep soils, and are more resistant than young forests to drought, fire, insects and strong winds – effects that are all <a href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/8/">likely to increase with climate change</a>. </p>
<p>Because old-growth forests have accumulated massive amounts of carbon in their trees and soils over centuries, protecting them is <a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-trees-in-the-ground-where-they-are-already-growing-is-an-effective-low-tech-way-to-slow-climate-change-154618">an important strategy for curbing climate change</a>. Today, however, scientists estimate that logging, agriculture and urban development have left only <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-old-growth-forests/">6%</a> to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1600821">14%</a> of the forest area in the U.S. intact. And only <a href="https://doi.org/10.2737/WO-GTR-91">7% of total U.S. forest area</a> is more than a century old. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-are-risking-arrest-to-join-old-growth-logging-protests-on-vancouver-island-161550">Old-growth logging is controversial</a> because intact forests are so rare. And forest losses often start when roads are cut through them to access timber. The roads are effectively long clear-cuts across the landscape. </p>
<p>Building roads through moist temperate forests can make it easier for warm air, wind and sunlight to penetrate from the edges to the interior, drying soil, mosses and ferns. It also provides entry points for invasive plants carried in by vehicles. </p>
<p>And roads’ negative effects extend beyond the actual driving surface. A road 30 feet (9 meters) wide may influence an additional 80 to 100 feet (25 to 30 meters) of adjacent land because of land disturbance during construction and wide buffer zones created for vehicle safety.</p>
<p>Road building can harm animals like <a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/new-roads-tongass-national-forest-could-harm-bears">brown bears</a> through collisions with vehicles and increased poaching and trapping. In the Tongass, a strip a quarter-mile (0.4 kilometer) wide on each side of the highway system is <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/regulations/wildliferegulations/pdfs/regulations_complete.pdf">closed to big game hunting</a>, but this mitigates only some of roads’ pervasive effects.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413875/original/file-20210730-23-19atx1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bulldozers grade land next to a gravel logging road." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413875/original/file-20210730-23-19atx1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413875/original/file-20210730-23-19atx1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413875/original/file-20210730-23-19atx1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413875/original/file-20210730-23-19atx1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413875/original/file-20210730-23-19atx1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413875/original/file-20210730-23-19atx1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413875/original/file-20210730-23-19atx1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Upgrading a logging road into State Highway 43 on Prince of Wales Island in the Tongass National Forest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/diZWsT">Jack Olen, USFS Alaska Region/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Decades of controversy</h2>
<p>The controversy over roadless areas began in January 2001, when the Clinton administration adopted the <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/roadmain/roadless/2001roadlessrule">Roadless Area Conservation Rule</a>. This measure barred logging, timber sales, mining and road construction within inventoried roadless areas in most national forests across the U.S. About 9.2 million acres (37,231 square kilometers) of the Tongass – more than half of its area – were designated and managed as inventoried roadless areas. </p>
<p>This step launched <a href="https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/05/alaska-roadless-rule/">20 years of debate and litigation</a>. The Bush and Trump administrations, supported by conservative Western state officials, sought to limit the roadless rule and exempt the Tongass from it. The Obama administration generally supported the rule and defended it in court.</p>
<p>In 2020, the Trump administration opened the Tongass to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-alaska-logging-idINKBN27D2KV">extensive new logging, mining and road construction activities</a>. Critics, including environmental advocates and tribal governments, argued that Alaska’s economy was better served by <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26092020/roadless-rule-tongass-alaska-logging/">outdoor recreation and commercial fishing</a> than by clear-cutting its remaining old-growth forests. </p>
<p>Now, the Biden administration has restored protection for roadless areas of the Tongass. President Joe Biden has also issued an <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2022/04/22/executive-order-on-strengthening-the-nations-forests-communities-and-local-economies/">executive order</a> that calls for conserving mature and old-growth forests on federal land – although he <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15112022/cop27-deforestation-united-states-logging/">has not yet banned</a> logging in old-growth forests – and pledged to combat deforestation worldwide. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1415838613489729539"}"></div></p>
<h2>A strategic climate reserve</h2>
<p>New protection for the Tongass comes amid growing alarm over two converging environmental crises: climate change and accelerated extinctions of plant and animal species. In my view, protecting ecological treasures like the Tongass is a critical way to <a href="https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/2021-06/2021_IPCC-IPBES_scientific_outcome_20210612.pdf">address both issues at once, as scientists have recommended</a>.</p>
<p>The southeastern and south-central regions of Alaska, which contain the Tongass and <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/chugach/">Chugach</a> national forests, store about 1 billion metric tons of carbon in live and dead tree biomass. This amount could increase by <a href="https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1826">27% by 2100</a> if the forest is allowed to continue to grow and accumulate carbon.</p>
<p>I believe the Tongass’ vast intactness, rich biodiversity and significant carbon storage make it an excellent choice as the first of a series of <a href="https://wild-heritage.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/scientistsignonTongass3-17-21.pdf">strategic climate reserves</a> – areas that scientists have proposed setting aside to protect large carbon sinks and biodiversity of plant and animal species. U.S. old-growth forests are disappearing rapidly, but with smart management they can deliver ecological benefits for decades to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Beverly Law does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Tongass National Forest in Alaska, a focus of political battles over old-growth logging and road-building in forests for decades, has received new protection from the Biden administration.Beverly Law, Professor Emeritus of Global Change Biology and Terrestrial Systems Science, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1588692021-04-22T16:41:16Z2021-04-22T16:41:16ZNew US climate pledge: Cut emissions 50% this decade, but can Biden make it happen?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396616/original/file-20210422-21-amzkxv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=988%2C700%2C5002%2C3287&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. President Joe Biden, with presidential climate envoy John Kerry, opened the Leaders Summit on Climate on April 22, 2021, by announcing new U.S. targets.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenClimateSummit/ba2329ff0f8a41f3b58bebd93a4aefc4/photo">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">announced an ambitious new national climate target</a> at the world leaders’ climate summit on April 22. He pledged to cut U.S. carbon emissions in half by the end of this decade – a drop of 50-52% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels – and aim for net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>The new goal is a big deal because it formally brings together the many different ideas on infrastructure, the budget, federal regulatory policy and disparate actions in the states and industry for transforming the U.S. economy into a highly competitive, yet very green giant. It also signals to the rest of the world that “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-on-americas-place-in-the-world/">America is back</a>” and prepared to work on climate change.</p>
<p>Stopping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius – the aim of the Paris climate agreement – will require an immediate global effort that can transform energy systems and make emissions plummet at rates never observed before in history. Statements from the 40 world leaders <a href="https://www.state.gov/leaders-summit-on-climate/">at the virtual summit</a> reflected both ambitious visions for that future – and the reality that words don’t always match actions on the ground. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Chart showing historic and anticipated future emissions falling to meet Biden's goals." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396569/original/file-20210422-17-yi3lmo.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396569/original/file-20210422-17-yi3lmo.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396569/original/file-20210422-17-yi3lmo.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396569/original/file-20210422-17-yi3lmo.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=269&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396569/original/file-20210422-17-yi3lmo.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396569/original/file-20210422-17-yi3lmo.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396569/original/file-20210422-17-yi3lmo.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The U.S. government illustrated its new commitment in documents filed with the United Nations. The pledges use 2005 as the baseline.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/United%20States%20of%20America%20First/United%20States%20NDC%20April%2021%202021%20Final.pdf">UNFCCC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Formally, the new U.S. target is what’s known under the Paris climate agreement as a “<a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/United%20States%20of%20America%20First/United%20States%20NDC%20April%2021%202021%20Final.pdf">nationally determined contribution</a>.” In effect, it is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-years-after-paris-how-countries-climate-policies-match-up-to-their-promises-and-whos-aiming-for-net-zero-emissions-151722">nonbinding pledge to the rest of the world</a>. Beyond the headline figures, Biden’s pledge pays attention to the need to adapt to the climate changes already underway and build resilience.</p>
<p>With the U.S. pledge, <a href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NDCStaging/Pages/All.aspx">about two-thirds</a> of the current global emissions come from countries that have now committed to reach net zero emissions by mid-century. </p>
<p>We’ve both been involved with climate policy and the international negotiations for decades, and these new goals show real momentum.</p>
<p>But will the new U.S. pledge have an impact on emissions that’s as huge as the pledge sounds?</p>
<h2>Can the U.S. meet its new goal?</h2>
<p>Already there’s been a lot of <a href="https://www.climateworks.org/blog/from-ambition-to-action/">gushing about the boldness of the U.S. goal</a>, by companies, <a href="https://www.edf.org/climate/recapturing-us-climate-leadership">advocacy groups</a>, and <a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2021-03/Working%20Paper_ChartNDC_Feb2021.pdf">academic think tanks</a>, often pointing to studies that find a <a href="https://www.americaisallin.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/accelerating-americas-pledge-1.pdf">50% emissions cut is achievable</a>. </p>
<p>Our chief concern is industrial reality – cutting emissions by half within a decade implies transforming the electricity system, transportation, industry and agriculture.</p>
<p>These systems don’t turn on a dime. The goal setting is the easy part. It is largely a combination of technical feasibility with political palatability. The tough work is getting it done.</p>
<p>Pretty much everything will need to line up quickly — policies that are credible and durable, along with industrial responses. <a href="https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/accelerating-the-low-carbon-transition/">As often happens with technological change</a>, most analysts are overestimating how quickly things can transform in the near term, and probably underestimating how profound change will have to be into the more distant future.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Line chart showing trajectories from today's emissions to half by 50% and zero by 2050." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396305/original/file-20210421-19-h71rh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396305/original/file-20210421-19-h71rh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396305/original/file-20210421-19-h71rh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396305/original/file-20210421-19-h71rh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396305/original/file-20210421-19-h71rh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396305/original/file-20210421-19-h71rh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396305/original/file-20210421-19-h71rh9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The sooner global emissions decline, the smoother the route to zero emissions by 2050 will be. The lines show potential global pathways.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Robbie Andrew/CICERO Center for International Climate Research</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The electricity sector is the key early mover in the U.S. and globally. Research from the Berkeley Lab shows that, over the last 15 years, <a href="https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/halfway-zero-progress-towards-carbon">the U.S. has slashed power-sector carbon emissions in half relative to projected levels</a>.</p>
<p>The Biden administration now has a goal for electricity to be <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/01/27/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-executive-actions-to-tackle-the-climate-crisis-at-home-and-abroad-create-jobs-and-restore-scientific-integrity-across-federal-government/">carbon-free by 2035</a>. Nearly every study that shows a 50% drop in U.S. emissions is feasible is based on the observation that the power sector will cut emissions at a fast clip.</p>
<p>For all the progress in electricity, pushing that sector to be net zero soon will create tensions and tradeoffs. For example, distress from the sharp <a href="https://umwa.org/preserving-coal-country-2/">decline of the coal industry</a> is already evident in communities across Appalachia.</p>
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<h2>Politics and a climate summit</h2>
<p>The new commitments were announced in the context of the White House’s first major <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/26/president-biden-invites-40-world-leaders-to-leaders-summit-on-climate/">diplomatic event on climate change</a> — a meeting of 40 major emitting countries, including China, Russia, India, the UK and several European countries.</p>
<p>The U.S. is the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, and one of the highest in <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions">emissions per person</a>. But its emissions are less than 15% of the global total, so it is essential that whatever happens in the U.S. be linked to a global effort. That’s why credibility matters so much. If the U.S. is to re-establish leadership on climate change, its efforts are only as good <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/13/opinion/climate-change-madrid.html">as followership by the rest of the world</a>.</p>
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<p>But the Biden administration has to move carefully.</p>
<p>Tempting as it is to tighten the screws on emissions, efforts that are too aggressive will easily become fodder for the political opponents and industries that have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/26/science/earth/26climate.html">undermined climate efforts in the past</a>.</p>
<p>The shift in climate politics is important to watch. Biden has a barely functional majority on Capitol Hill, and the real politics of climate change aren’t simply about the technical scenarios of cutting emissions with cleaner technologies. They are also about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/us/politics/biden-infrastructure-climate-equality.html">how society transitions</a>.</p>
<h2>The US still needs to prove itself</h2>
<p>The White House had high expectations for the summit, including expecting several countries to announce new commitments. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035">U.K. pledged</a> just ahead of the summit to cut emissions 78% by 2035, and the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/eu-reaches-provisional-deal-55-greenhouse-gas-cut-by-2030-2021-04-21/">EU announced</a> a provisional deal on a 55% emissions cut by 2030. </p>
<p>The virtual summit also drew Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro – three frequent U.S. adversaries and major contributors to climate change through <a href="https://theconversation.com/competition-heats-up-in-the-melting-arctic-and-the-us-isnt-prepared-to-counter-russia-149341">fossil fuels</a> or deforestation. Putin promised big action and to “significantly cut the accumulated volume of net emissions” in Russia, and Bolsonaro promised to protect the Amazon rainforest, but not end illegal deforestation for another 10 years. Both highlight how easy it is to promise great things at climate summits even when one’s track record points in the opposite direction.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Screen showing the video feeds of each world leader" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396615/original/file-20210422-17-15djpzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396615/original/file-20210422-17-15djpzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396615/original/file-20210422-17-15djpzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396615/original/file-20210422-17-15djpzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396615/original/file-20210422-17-15djpzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396615/original/file-20210422-17-15djpzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396615/original/file-20210422-17-15djpzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forty world leaders attended the climate summit by video on April 22, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/world-leaders-are-seen-on-a-screen-during-a-climate-change-news-photo/1232459005?adppopup=true">Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Grounding this frenzied ambition in the messy work of policy design and implementation is far removed from a virtual event.</p>
<p>One indicator of the actual success of the summit may be China. U.S.-China diplomacy in the run up to the UN Paris climate meeting was widely seen as essential to its success five years ago. This year, when presidential climate envoy John Kerry met with his Chinese counterpart a few days ahead of the April 22 summit, the <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-china-joint-statement-addressing-the-climate-crisis/">joint statement</a> concluded with a somewhat generic agreement to cooperate on climate change and ensure the world meets the Paris goals. </p>
<p>After four years of the Trump administration’s antagonism toward climate efforts, and undermining of U.S. credibility overseas, and with so much domestic work on climate still needed, a U.S.-hosted summit may have been premature. The intense <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/climate/biden-climate-change-diplomacy.html">diplomatic efforts to pressure other countries</a> to make announcements at the event seemed out of touch with the U.S. need to get its house in order first.</p>
<p>The White House pledge is bold, but it remains long on adjectives and short on credible verbs. Whether it will have an impact on either domestic action or helping to convince the world that the U.S. is a trusted and durable partner on climate change remains to be seen.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Victor is also a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morgan Bazilian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two energy and climate policy experts take a closer look at the Leaders Summit on Climate, the US pledge and today’s industrial reality.Morgan Bazilian, Professor of Public Policy and Director, Payne Institute, Colorado School of MinesDavid Victor, Professor of International Relations, University of California, San DiegoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1591032021-04-22T14:39:49Z2021-04-22T14:39:49ZEarth Day 2021: Canada’s latest budget falls dangerously short on climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396605/original/file-20210422-16-13kmglw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5512%2C4000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canada's latest federal budget did little to tackle climate action or income inequality, two problems with strong ties. Alberta's Bow Lake is seen in this photo.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Josh Woroniecki/Unsplash</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.budget.gc.ca/2021/home-accueil-en.html">The 724-page federal budget</a> made vital spending commitments to extend supports to Canadians as the pandemic shock waves continue. It also made critical social safety net improvements, most notably <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-budget-2021-7-actions-to-ensure-canadas-child-care-plan-is-about-education-159191">universal child care</a> and increases in old age security and supports for eldercare. </p>
<p>But where is the road map to reduce Canada’s carbon emissions? If we are to have a serious chance of meeting net-zero targets by 2050, Canada must phase out fossil fuel production and use, eliminate fossil fuel subsidies and financing, and end all carbon-emitting activity. This is especially true given that Canada provides more <a href="http://priceofoil.org/2020/05/27/g20-still-digging/">public finance to the fossil fuel sector per capita</a> than any other G20 country.</p>
<p>In a paper for the Cascade Institute, University of Waterloo academics Angela Carter and Truzar Dordi <a href="https://cascadeinstitute.org/technical-paper/correcting-canadas-one-eye-shut-climate-policy/">have calculated</a>, based on government projections, that fossil fuel production in Canada is scheduled to rise until 2039 and remain above current levels in 2050. They conclude that Canada, with 0.5 per cent of the world’s population, would exhaust 16 per cent of the world’s remaining carbon budget to maintain emissions below 1.5C.</p>
<h2>Green economy funding</h2>
<p>The 2021 budget provides major funding of $17.6 billion for the transition to a green economy, including $319 million over the next seven years for research and development for potentially problematic <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/04/21/news/trudeaus-wager-carbon-capture-budget-2021">carbon capture and storage</a>. </p>
<p>It earmarks $1 billion over five years to attract private capital to clean tech industries, and a $5 billion green bond issue in this fiscal year to fund infrastructure, clean tech and conservation projects. This is in addition to $3.4 billion — the bulk of it for departmental funding — over five years for land waterways and ocean conservation. It also allocates $4.4 billion in interest-free loans to landlords and homeowners for home retrofits.</p>
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<img alt="Freeland delivers the budget as Trudeau sits beside her reading the document." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396391/original/file-20210421-13-1scdp3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C0%2C4176%2C2750&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396391/original/file-20210421-13-1scdp3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396391/original/file-20210421-13-1scdp3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396391/original/file-20210421-13-1scdp3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396391/original/file-20210421-13-1scdp3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396391/original/file-20210421-13-1scdp3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396391/original/file-20210421-13-1scdp3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland delivers the federal budget in the House of Commons as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks on in Ottawa on April 19, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
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<p>But there are no mandated requirements to ensure those getting the funding meet the government’s zero emissions goal — simply lots of carrots, but no sticks. All of this is consistent with what the <a href="https://thebusinesscouncil.ca/report/clean-growth-3-0/">big business</a> lobby was demanding. The words “climate,” climate change" and “climate crisis,” in fact, did not appear once in the finance minister’s speech.</p>
<p>Canada’s climate emissions <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/02/04/analysis/canada-pledges-strengthen-2030-climate-targets">have risen 26 per cent since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol</a>. By comparison, American emissions have remained stable and the European Union’s emissions have declined 25 per cent from the Kyoto accord’s 1990 baseline. Even during the past five years, while the Liberals have been in power, Canada’s emissions have continued to creep up.</p>
<h2>Canada vs. the EU</h2>
<p>The government did announce a new target in the budget. It aims to reduce emissions to 36 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. Reportedly <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-pressured-to-adopt-tougher-emissions-target-for-biden-climate-summit-1.5396326">under pressure from the Americans</a>, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a further reduction to between <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2021/04/22/prime-minister-trudeau-announces-increased-climate-ambition">40 and 45 per cent</a> at the U.S.-sponsored Earth Day climate summit. </p>
<p>Yet this still amounts to only a 20-22 per cent reduction since the 1990 Kyoto baseline. The EU, meantime, has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/11/eu-leaders-agree-on-55percent-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction-target.html">strengthened its pledge to reduce emissions 55 per cent below its 1990 levels</a>. Globally, the target needs to be about 25 per cent below 1990 levels for a chance of maintaining temperatures at 1.5C. Given Canada’s record of broken promises, skepticism about its ability to meet these commitments is understandable. </p>
<p>There was also scant action in the budget on tackling income disparities, <a href="https://www.sei.org/publications/the-carbon-inequality-era/">even though the link between carbon emissions and inequality</a> is striking. The world’s richest families have a disproportionate impact on climate. In 2015, <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/carbon-emissions-richest-1-percent-more-double-emissions-poorest-half-humanity">the top one per cent accounted for 15 per cent of global emissions</a>, almost half of them from North America. The top 10 per cent accounted for more than half of global emissions, almost a third from North America. </p>
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<img alt="People lie on the ground while taking part in a climate action protest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396392/original/file-20210421-19-r74jia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396392/original/file-20210421-19-r74jia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396392/original/file-20210421-19-r74jia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396392/original/file-20210421-19-r74jia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396392/original/file-20210421-19-r74jia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396392/original/file-20210421-19-r74jia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396392/original/file-20210421-19-r74jia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People lie on the ground while taking part in a die-in outside the B.C. Supreme Court as part of a climate action demonstration in Vancouver in February 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck</span></span>
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<p>In Canada, <a href="https://oxfam.app.box.com/s/gsrhhjkee8p3630fp21a3k1y3pz1ozjo">the richest 0.1 per cent emitted 136 tonnes of CO2 per capita in 2015</a>. The bottom 50 per cent of Canadians in terms of income, by comparison, emitted only seven tonnes of CO2 that year.</p>
<h2>No wealth tax</h2>
<p>Last September’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-throne-speech-must-blaze-a-bold-new-path-including-imposing-a-wealth-tax-145747">speech from the throne</a> promised to “identify additional ways to tax extreme wealth inequality.” </p>
<p>But there was no wealth tax on the super-rich in the budget, no increase in the top income tax bracket or the capital gains tax, no surtax on billionaires disproportionately profiting from the pandemic despite the fact that, a year into the crisis, <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/newsroom/news-releases/one-year-pandemic-canadian-billionaire-wealth-78-billion">Canadian billionaire wealth</a> was up by $78 billion.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-throne-speech-must-blaze-a-bold-new-path-including-imposing-a-wealth-tax-145747">The throne speech must blaze a bold new path — including imposing a wealth tax</a>
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<p>The top <a href="https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/RP-2021-007-S--estimating-top-tail-family-wealth-distribution-in-canada--estimation-queue-superieure-distribution-patrimoine-familial-au-canada">one per cent of Canada’s income earners hold 26 per cent of Canadian wealth</a>. The top 10 per cent hold 56.4 per cent of family wealth, while the bottom 50 per cent of Canadians hold a negligible 1.2 per cent of total family wealth. The budget announced <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/budget-tax-1.5993593">a few boutique taxes</a> for the very wealthy and limits on interest deductibility. That’s about it.</p>
<p>The aforementioned social spending commitments could greatly improve the living conditions for low- to middle-income households and vulnerable populations, but they’ll barely make a dent in bringing down overall income and wealth inequality to where it stood in the early 1980s. Between <a href="https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/reports/75-years-of-income-inequality-canada">1982 and 2018, average incomes for the top one per cent doubled</a> in Canada, with most of those income gains going to the top 0.01 per cent. Average real income for the bottom half of Canada’s income earners declined during the same period.</p>
<h2>No clampdown on banks</h2>
<p>Canadian financial institutions, rife with one of the <a href="https://www.desmog.com/2021/04/06/revealed-climate-conflicted-directors-leading-the-worlds-top-banks/">world’s most “climate-conflicted bank directors,”</a> continue to lend massive amounts of money to the fossil fuel sector. The world’s biggest 60 banks, including four of the big five Canadian banks, have provided US$3.8 trillion of financing for fossil fuel companies since the Paris climate accord came into effect in 2016, according to the <a href="https://www.ran.org/bankingonclimatechaos2021/">Banking on Climate Chaos 2021</a> report.</p>
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<img alt="Bank building in Toronto's financial district." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396393/original/file-20210421-23-1dr12ci.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396393/original/file-20210421-23-1dr12ci.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396393/original/file-20210421-23-1dr12ci.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396393/original/file-20210421-23-1dr12ci.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396393/original/file-20210421-23-1dr12ci.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396393/original/file-20210421-23-1dr12ci.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396393/original/file-20210421-23-1dr12ci.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Bank buildings are seen in Toronto’s financial district in June 2018. There’s no indication in the budget that the federal government will curb bank financing of the fossil fuel industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Tijana Martin</span></span>
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<p>Yet there’s nothing in the budget to indicate that the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions will clamp down on lending to the fossil fuel industry.</p>
<p>Global corporate tax rates have plummeted over the past four decades, including in Canada. The average worldwide statutory corporate tax rate fell <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/publications/corporate-tax-rates-around-the-world/">from 40 per cent in 1980 to 24 per cent in 2020</a>. </p>
<p>In the United States, the Joe Biden administration <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/biden-infrastructure-plan-includes-corporate-tax-hike-transportation-spending.html">has unveiled</a> a plan to raise American corporate tax rates to 28 per cent from 21 per cent. </p>
<p>But there was no increase in Canadian corporate rates in this budget. Nor does the budget mandate carbon reduction targets for corporations that receive government funding, continuing to let private sector’s <a href="https://www.bairdeurope.com/Is-ESG-Investing-Making-a-Difference">environmental, social and governance [ESG]</a> investment fund initiatives take the lead, even though they invariably <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/wall-street-finance-blackrock-oil-greenwashing-b1819272.html">favour profit over climate</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sustainability-rankings-dont-always-identify-sustainable-companies-157023">Sustainability rankings don't always identify sustainable companies</a>
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<p>The snail’s pace of action in this year’s federal budget is out of step with the urgency of the climate and income inequality crises. </p>
<p>It’s done nothing to threaten <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/305569/plutocrats-by-chrystia-freeland/">the plutocracy’s</a> hold on power and privilege. Most disconcerting, Canada remains an outlier in the global effort to prevent the slide towards the climate abyss.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Campbell is affiliated with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, the Group of 78, the Rideau Institute for International Affairs, and the Polaris Institute</span></em></p>The snail’s pace of action in this year’s federal budget on climate is out of step with the urgency of the climate and income inequality crises.Bruce Campbell, Adjunct professor, Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1536982021-01-20T22:33:24Z2021-01-20T22:33:24ZJoe Biden sends a clear message to the watching world – America’s back<blockquote>
<p>Politics doesn’t have to be a raging fire destroying everything in its path</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Two weeks after the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-55641714">storming of the US Capitol</a> by the followers of his predecessor, in the middle of an out-of-control pandemic that has killed more than 400,000 Americans, Joe Biden — the 46th president of the US — tried to contain the blaze in his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/20/us/biden-inauguration#biden-sworn-in">inaugural address</a>.</p>
<p>As aspiration, the speech was pitch perfect. Biden rightly took on the present of America’s most serious domestic crisis since the Civil War. Coronavirus, the Capitol attack, economic loss, immigration, climate change and social injustice were confronted: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>We’ll press forward with speed and urgency for we have much to do in this winter of peril and significant possibility. Much to do, much to heal, much to restore, much to build and much to gain.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But what distinguished the speech beyond the essential was the sincerity with which it was delivered. Since the election, there has been a commingling of Biden’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/e5a1e70314eb44219448eeb850c65f1e">personal narrative of loss</a> with the damage that America has suffered. When he spoke of the “empty chair” and relatives who have died, it was from the heart and not just the script.</p>
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<p>So, as he said in front of the Capitol: “My whole soul is in this”, there was no doubt — in contrast to the statements of his predecessor — that it is.</p>
<p>Complementing Biden’s rhetoric are the executive orders and legislation set out in the days before the inauguration. <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/19/biden-immigration-proposal-includes-pathway-citizenship-some/4212870001/">Immigration reform</a> will be accompanied by protection of almost <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/13/who-daca-dreamers-and-how-many-here/333045002/">800,000 young Dreamers</a> from deportation. There is a mandate to reunite children separated from parents and a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants. </p>
<p>The US has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/19/biden-environment-paris-climate-agreement-keystone-xl-pipeline">rejoined the Paris Accords</a> on climate change. The <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/psychological-trauma-stress-lasting-impact-muslim-ban-n1254789">“Muslim Ban”</a> is rescinded, Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-20/biden-to-reverse-trump-travel-ban-halt-wall-construction">wall with Mexico suspended</a>. And coronavirus will finally be confronted with coordination between the federal, state and local governments and a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/14/politics/biden-economic-rescue-package-coronavirus-stimulus/index.html">US$1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan”</a>.</p>
<h2>Words to a waiting world</h2>
<p>But where is America in the world in all this? In Biden’s attention to domestic crises, there was little beyond his intention to re-engage with the world on climate and reverse the previous administration’s myopic immigration measures. Even the invocations of American greatness, with one exception, stayed within its borders: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Through a crucible for the ages, America has been tested anew and America has risen to the challenge.</p>
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<p>There is historical precedent for the exclusive focus on home. In 1933, as the Great Depression raged, Franklin Delano Roosevelt also made no reference to the world <a href="https://www.fdrlibrary.org/first-inaugural-curriculum-hub">as he said at his first inauguration</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Perhaps even more pertinently, in 1865, <a href="https://www.ourdocuments.gov/print_friendly.php?flash=false&page=&doc=38&title=President+Abraham+Lincolns+Second+Inaugural+Address+%281865%29">Abraham Lincoln said in his second inaugural address</a>, a month before his assassination and two months before the end of the Civil War: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>With malice toward none; with charity for all; with firmness in the right, as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in; to bind up the nation’s wounds.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Beyond the inaugural, there are clues in <a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-who-in-joe-bidens-cabinet-152252">Biden’s appointment of Obama-era pragmatists</a>: Antony Blinken as secretary of state, Jake Sullivan as national security advisor, John Kerry in a special post for climate change. There will be no sweeping “Biden Doctrine”, nor a grand speech such as Barack Obama’s in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/04/us/politics/04obama.text.html">Cairo</a> or <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-obama-turkish-parliament">Ankara</a> in 2009. </p>
<p>Instead, the pragmatists will try to restore alliances, reestablish the “rules of the game” with countries such as China, Russia and North Korea — and work case-by-case on immediate issues such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/iran-us-policy-of-maximum-pressure-has-failed-why-the-west-needs-to-re-engage-tehran-153011">Iran nuclear deal</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-who-in-joe-bidens-cabinet-152252">Who’s who in Joe Biden’s cabinet</a>
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<p>But for this day, and for the weeks and months to come, the foreign challenges will primarily be an extension of the domestic issues that Biden set out on “America’s day … democracy’s day”. </p>
<p>Recovery of America’s damaged standing will come from success in putting out the fires that are not just in the US: saving lives and vanquishing a virus, committing to a secure environment, tackling the inequities and divisions in the way of justice for all.</p>
<p>For as the world watched, Biden’s exceptional reference to an aspiration beyond the US came in his penultimate paragraph about the “American story” to be written:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>That America secured liberty at home and stood once again as a beacon to the world. That is what we owe our forebears, one another, and generations to follow.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Biden’s inaugural speech focused mainly on healing domestic rifts and a new kind of politics at home. But he also signalled a return to engagement with the outside world.Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1449082020-09-08T12:16:18Z2020-09-08T12:16:18ZProtecting half of the planet is the best way to fight climate change and biodiversity loss – we’ve mapped the key places to do it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356613/original/file-20200904-14-uayiab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2959%2C1800&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rapid loss of species like these Spix's macaws, considered extinct in the wild, may represent the sixth mass extinction in Earth's history.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/spixs-macaws-felicitas-frieda-paula-and-paul-sit-on-a-news-photo/129031564?adppopup=true">PATRICK PLEUL/DPA/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Humans are dismantling and disrupting natural ecosystems around the globe and changing Earth’s climate. Over the past 50 years, actions like farming, logging, hunting, development and global commerce have caused <a href="https://ipbes.net/global-assessment">record losses of species</a> on land and at sea. Animals, birds and reptiles are disappearing tens to hundreds of times faster than the natural rate of extinction over the past 10 million years. </p>
<p>Now the world is also contending with a global pandemic. In geographically remote regions such as the Brazilian Amazon, COVID-19 is devastating Indigenous populations, with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31242-3">tragic consequences</a> for both Indigenous peoples and the lands they steward.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sPyLa9oAAAAJ&hl=en">My research</a> focuses on ecosystems and climate change from regional to global scales. In 2019, I worked with conservation biologist and strategist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=IO_pazEAAAAJ&hl=en">Eric Dinerstein</a> and 17 colleagues to develop a road map for simultaneously averting a sixth mass extinction and reducing climate change by protecting half of Earth’s terrestrial, freshwater and marine realms by 2030. We called this plan “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2869">A Global Deal for Nature</a>.” </p>
<p>Now we’ve released a follow-on called the “<a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/36/eabb2824.abstract">Global Safety Net</a>” that identifies the exact regions on land that must be protected to achieve its goals. Our aim is for nations to pair it with the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Climate Agreement</a> and use it as a dynamic tool to assess progress towards our comprehensive conservation targets.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356609/original/file-20200904-20-1pofu39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356609/original/file-20200904-20-1pofu39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356609/original/file-20200904-20-1pofu39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356609/original/file-20200904-20-1pofu39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356609/original/file-20200904-20-1pofu39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356609/original/file-20200904-20-1pofu39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356609/original/file-20200904-20-1pofu39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356609/original/file-20200904-20-1pofu39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Population size of terrestrial vertebrate species on the brink (i.e., with under 1,000 individuals). Most of these species are especially close to extinction because they consist of fewer than 250 individuals. In most cases, those few individuals are scattered through several small populations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.pnas.org/content/117/24/13596/tab-figures-data">Ceballos et al, 2020.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What to protect next</h2>
<p>The Global Deal for Nature provided a framework for the milestones, targets and policies across terrestrial, freshwater and marine realms required to conserve the vast majority of life on Earth. Yet it didn’t specify where exactly these safeguards were needed. That’s where the new Global Safety Net comes in.</p>
<p>We analyzed unprotected terrestrial areas that, if protected, could sequester carbon and conserve biodiversity as effectively as the 15% of terrestrial areas that are currently protected. Through this analysis, we identified an additional 35% of unprotected lands for conservation, bringing the total percentage of protected nature to 50%. </p>
<p>By setting aside half of Earth’s lands for nature, nations can save our planet’s rich biodiversity, prevent future pandemics and meet the Paris climate target of keeping warming in this century below less than 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C). To meet these goals, 20 countries must contribute disproportionately. Much of the responsibility falls to Russia, the U.S., Brazil, Indonesia, Canada, Australia and China. Why? Because these countries contain massive tracts of land needed to reach the dual goals of reducing climate change and saving biodiversity.</p>
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<h2>Supporting Indigenous communities</h2>
<p>Indigenous peoples make up less than 5% of the total human population, yet they manage or have tenure rights <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0100-6">over a quarter of the world’s land surface</a>, representing close to 80% of our planet’s biodiversity. One of our key findings is that 37% of the proposed lands for increased protection overlap with Indigenous lands. </p>
<p>As the world edges closer towards a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-mass-extinction-and-are-we-in-one-now-122535">sixth mass extinction</a>, Indigenous communities stand to lose the most. Forest loss, ecotourism and devastation wrought by climate change have already displaced Indigenous peoples from their traditional territories at unprecedented rates. Now one of the deadliest pandemics in recent history poses an <a href="https://theconversation.com/judge-orders-brazil-to-protect-indigenous-people-from-ravages-of-covid-19-142356">even graver additional threat</a> to Indigenous lives and livelihoods. </p>
<p>To address and alleviate human rights questions, social justice issues and conservation challenges, the Global Safety Net calls for better protection for Indigenous communities. We believe our goals are achievable by upholding existing land tenure rights, addressing Indigenous land claims, and carrying out supportive ecological management programs with indigenous peoples.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CEUYvv_hcab","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Preventing future pandemics</h2>
<p>Tropical deforestation increases forest edges – areas where forests meet human habitats. These areas greatly increase the potential for contact between humans and animal vectors that serve as viral hosts. </p>
<p>For instance, the latest research shows that the SARS-CoV-2 virus <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-020-0771-4">originated and evolved naturally in horseshoe bats</a>, most likely <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb9153">incubated in pangolins</a>, and then spread to humans <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02052-7">via the wildlife trade</a>.</p>
<p>The Global Safety Net’s policy milestones and targets would reduce the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-coronavirus-emerged-from-the-global-wildlife-trade-and-may-be-devastating-enough-to-end-it-133333">illegal wildlife trade and associated wildlife markets</a> – two known sources of zoonotic diseases. Reducing contact zones between animals and humans can decrease the chances of future zoonotic spillovers from occurring. </p>
<p>Our framework also envisions the creation of a Pandemic Prevention Program, which would increase protections for natural habitats at high risk for human-animal interactions. Protecting wildlife in these areas could also reduce the potential for more catastrophic outbreaks.</p>
<h2>Nature-based solutions</h2>
<p>Achieving the Global Safety Net’s goals will require nature-based solutions – strategies that protect, manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems while providing co-benefits to both people and nature. They are low-cost and readily available today.</p>
<p>The nature-based solutions that we spotlight include:
- Identifying biodiverse non-agricultural lands, particularly prevalent in tropical and sub-tropical regions, for increased conservation attention.
- Prioritizing ecoregions that optimize carbon storage and drawdown, such as the Amazon and Congo basins.
- Aiding species movement and adaptation across ecosystems by creating a comprehensive system of <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-climate-corridors-help-species-adapt-to-warming-world-61190">wildlife and climate corridors</a>. </p>
<p>We estimate that an increase of just 2.3% more land in the right places could save our planet’s rarest plant and animal species within five years.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ttiI1dGxbxM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Wildlife corridors connect fragmented wild spaces, providing wild animals the space they need to survive.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Leveraging technology for conservation</h2>
<p>In the Global Safety Net study, we identified 50 ecoregions where additional conservation attention is most needed to meet the Global Deal for Nature’s targets, and 20 countries that must assume greater responsibility for protecting critical places. We mapped an additional 35% of terrestrial lands that play a critical role in reversing biodiversity loss, enhancing natural carbon removal and preventing further greenhouse gas emissions from land conversion.</p>
<p>But as climate change accelerates, it may scramble those priorities. Staying ahead of the game will require a satellite-driven monitoring system with the capability of tracking real-time land use changes on a global scale. These continuously updated maps would enable dynamic analyses to help sharpen conservation planning and help decision-making.</p>
<p>As director of the <a href="https://gdcs.asu.edu/">Arizona State University Center for Global Discovery and Conservation Science</a>, I lead the development of new technologies that assess and monitor imminent ecological threats, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/10/science/coral-reefs-mapping-biodiversity.html">coral reef bleaching events</a> and <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/04/low-cost-satellite-forest-monitoring-for-all-qa-with-claslite-creator-greg-asner/">illegal deforestation</a>, as well as progress made toward responding to ecological emergencies. Along with colleagues from other research institutions who are advancing this kind of research, I’m confident that it is possible to develop a global nature monitoring program.</p>
<p>The Global Safety Net pinpoints locations around the globe that must be protected to slow climate change and species loss. And the science shows that there is no time to lose.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Asner receives funding from the Avatar Alliance Foundation, Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation, MacArthur Foundation, Morgan Family Foundation, Packard Foundation, and visionary individual donors.</span></em></p>A new plan targets areas around the world that can store carbon and protect large numbers of species. It calls for preserving these lands, working with Indigenous peoples and connecting wild areas.Greg Asner, Director, Center for Global Discovery and Conservation Science and Professor, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1424622020-07-16T12:12:24Z2020-07-16T12:12:24ZAn effective climate change solution may lie in rocks beneath our feet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347714/original/file-20200715-31-u81v6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C4%2C2991%2C1989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Weathering of rocks like these basalt formations in Idaho triggers chemical processes that remove carbon dioxide from the air.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/2hMZxfS">Matthew Dillon/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Why has Earth’s climate remained so stable over geological time? The answer just might rock you. </p>
<p>Rocks, particularly the types created by volcanic activity, play a critical role in keeping Earth’s long-term climate stable and cycling carbon dioxide between land, oceans and the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Scientists have known for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/JC086iC10p09776">decades</a> that rock weathering – the chemical breakdown of minerals in mountains and soils – removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and transforms it into stable minerals on the planet’s surface and in ocean sediments. But because this process operates over millions of years, it is too weak to offset modern global warming from human activities.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347727/original/file-20200715-37-1s7y6p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347727/original/file-20200715-37-1s7y6p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347727/original/file-20200715-37-1s7y6p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347727/original/file-20200715-37-1s7y6p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347727/original/file-20200715-37-1s7y6p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347727/original/file-20200715-37-1s7y6p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347727/original/file-20200715-37-1s7y6p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347727/original/file-20200715-37-1s7y6p6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Acid rain damage to buildings and monuments, like this sandstone statue in Dresden, Germany, is a form of chemical weathering.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acid_rain#/media/File:Skulptur_aus_Sandstein,_Dresden_2012-09-06-0555.jpg">Slick/Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now, however, emerging science – including at the California Collaborative for Climate Change Solutions’ (C4) <a href="https://www.workinglandsinnovation.com/">Working Lands Innovation Center</a> – shows that it is possible to accelerate rock weathering rates. Enhanced rock weathering could both slow global warming and improve soil health, making it possible to grow crops more efficiently and bolster food security. </p>
<h2>Rock chemistry</h2>
<p>Many processes <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/weathering/">weather rocks</a> on Earth’s surface, influenced by chemistry, biology, climate and plate tectonics. The dominant form of chemical weathering occurs when carbon dioxide combines with water in the soil and the ocean to make carbonic acid. </p>
<p>About 95% of Earth’s crust and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Earths-mantle">mantle</a> – the thick layer between the planet’s crust and its core – is made of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/silicate-mineral">silicate minerals</a>, which are compounds of silicon and oxygen. Silicates are the main ingredient in most igneous rocks, which form when volcanic material cools and hardens. Such rocks make up about 15% of Earth’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igneous_rock#Geological_significance">land surface</a>. </p>
<p>When carbonic acid comes in contact with certain silicate minerals, it triggers a chemical process known as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2019.00062">Urey reaction</a>. This reaction pulls gaseous carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and combines it with water and calcium or magnesium silicates, producing two bicarbonate ions. Once the carbon dioxide is trapped in these soil carbonates, or ultimately washed into the ocean, it no longer warms the climate.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347723/original/file-20200715-35-oit8oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347723/original/file-20200715-35-oit8oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347723/original/file-20200715-35-oit8oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347723/original/file-20200715-35-oit8oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347723/original/file-20200715-35-oit8oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347723/original/file-20200715-35-oit8oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347723/original/file-20200715-35-oit8oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347723/original/file-20200715-35-oit8oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When carbonic acid dissolves calcium and magnesium silicate minerals, they break down into dissolved compounds, some of which contain carbon. These materials can flow to the ocean, where marine organisms use them to build shells. Later the shells are buried in ocean sediments. Volcanic activity releases some carbon back to the atmosphere, but much of it stays buried in rock for millions of years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonate%E2%80%93silicate_cycle#/media/File:Carbon-Slicate_Cycle_Feedbacks.jpg">Gretashum/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Urey reaction runs at a higher rate when silicate-rich mountains such as the Himalayas expose fresh material to the atmosphere – for example, after a landslide – or when the climate becomes hotter and moister. Recent research demonstrates that humans can speed up the process substantially to help fight modern global warming.</p>
<h2>Accelerated weathering</h2>
<p>The biggest limit on weathering is the amount of silicate minerals exposed at any given time. Grinding up volcanic silicate rocks into a fine powder increases the surface area available for reactions. Further, adding this rock dust to the soil exposes it to plant roots and soil microbes. Both roots and microbes produce carbon dioxide as they decompose organic matter in the soil. In turn, this increases carbonic acid concentrations that accelerate weathering.</p>
<p>One recent study by British and Americans scientists suggests that adding finely crushed silicate rock, such as basalt, to all cropland soil in China, India, the U.S. and Brazil could trigger weathering that would remove <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9">more than 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide</a> from the atmosphere each year. For comparison, the U.S. emitted <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/climate/greenhouse-gas-emissions-increase.html">about 5.3 billion tons</a> of carbon dioxide in 2018. </p>
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<h2>Farming with rocks</h2>
<p>One compelling aspect of enhanced weathering is that, in controlled-environment studies involving basalt amendments of soil, cereal grain yields are improved by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15089">roughly 20%</a>. </p>
<p>As basalt weathers, it increases vital plant nutrients that can boost production and increase crops yields. Mineral nutrients such as calcium, potassium and magnesium create healthier soils. Farmers have been <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0001-37652006000400009">amending soil with rock minerals for centuries</a>, so the concept is nothing new. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347717/original/file-20200715-29-x3wxdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347717/original/file-20200715-29-x3wxdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347717/original/file-20200715-29-x3wxdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347717/original/file-20200715-29-x3wxdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347717/original/file-20200715-29-x3wxdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347717/original/file-20200715-29-x3wxdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347717/original/file-20200715-29-x3wxdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347717/original/file-20200715-29-x3wxdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spreading lime on a field in Devon, England to improve soil quality.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Spreading_lime_on_a_Devon_field.jpg">Mark Robinson/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the <a href="https://www.workinglandsinnovation.com/">Working Lands Innovation Center</a>, we are conducting perhaps the largest enhanced weathering demonstration experiment on real farms in the world. We are partnering with farmers, ranchers, government, the mining industry and Native American tribes in California on some 50 acres of cropland soil amendment trials. We are testing the effects of rock dust and compost amendments on greenhouse gas emissions from the soil, carbon capture, crop yields, and plant and microbial health. </p>
<p>Our initial results suggest that adding basalt and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/wollastonite">wollastonite</a>, a calcium silicate mineral, increased corn yields by 12% in the first year. Working with <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program">California’s greenhouse gas emissions trading program</a> and our state’s diverse agricultural interests, we hope to establish a pathway that would offer monetary incentives to farmers and ranchers who allow enhanced rock weathering on their lands. We aim to create a protocol for farmers and ranchers to make money from the carbon they farm into the soil and help businesses and industry achieve their carbon neutrality goals. </p>
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<h2>Why negative emissions matter</h2>
<p>Under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">2015 Paris climate agreement</a>, nations have pledged to limit global warming to less then 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. This will require massive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>Pulling carbon dioxide from the air – also known as negative emissions – is also necessary to avoid the worst climate change outcomes, because atmospheric carbon dioxide has an <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter06_FINAL.pdf">average lifespan of more than 100 years</a>. Every molecule of carbon dioxide that is released to the atmosphere through fossil fuel combustion or land clearing will remain there for many decades trapping heat and warming Earth’s surface.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4IUQn9uL6W0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In an even faster version of enhanced weathering, scientists pump supercritical carbon dioxide underground into basalt formations, where it reacts with minerals to form new solid rock.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nations need a portfolio of solutions to create <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25259/negative-emissions-technologies-and-reliable-sequestration-a-research-agenda">negative emissions</a>. Enhanced weathering is poised for rapid scale-up, taking advantage of farm equipment that’s already in place, global mining operations and supply chains that currently deliver fertilizers and seeds worldwide. By addressing soil erosion and food security along with climate change, I believe rock weathering can help humans escape the hard place we find ourselves in today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142462/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Z. Houlton receives funding from the California Strategic Growth Council</span></em></p>To avoid global warming on a catastrophic scale, nations need to reduce emissions and find ways to pull carbon from the air. One promising solution: spreading rock dust on farm fields.Benjamin Z. Houlton, Professor of Global Environmental Studies, Chancellor's Fellow and Director, John Muir Institute of the Environment, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1321852020-07-10T06:17:58Z2020-07-10T06:17:58ZActually, Mr Trump, it’s stronger environmental regulation that makes economic winners<p>Donald Trump has ordered US federal agencies to bypass environmental protection laws and fast-track pipeline, highway and other infrastructure projects. Signing the executive order last month, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/eo-accelerating-nations-economic-recovery-covid-19-emergency-expediting-infrastructure-investments-activities/">the US president declared</a> regulatory delays would hinder “our economic recovery from the national emergency”.</p>
<p>Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement for international climate action in 2017 for the same reason. The accord, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-trump-paris-climate-accord/">he said</a>, would undermine the US economy “and put us at a permanent disadvantage to the other countries of the world”. </p>
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<p>This idea that environmental regulation costs jobs and hurts the economy is deeply entrenched in pro-business discourse. But it is true?</p>
<p>To assess the impact of greater environmental policy on economic productivity we analysed data of 22 member nations of the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/about/members-and-partners/">Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development</a> (OECD) between 1990 and 2007. Our results show little evidence that environmental “green tape” inhibits economic growth over the long run. The opposite, in fact. </p>
<h2>Comparing environmental policy stringency</h2>
<p>Past studies of the economic impact of tougher environmental policies have tended to be limited by focusing on immediate effects and looking only at individual nations. Such results are of no help to understand the long-term effects and do not allow for straightforward cross-country comparison either. </p>
<p>This is why we analysed cross-country data stretching over a long period. We used data up to 2007 because that is the most recent year for which the OECD provides free access to all the information we needed for our analysis. </p>
<p>We rated nations’ environmental policies using the OECD’s <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=EPS">Environmental Policy Stringency Index</a>, developed in 2014. The index calculates a single score based on polices to limit air and water pollution, reduce carbon emissions, promote renewable energy and so on. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-clear-skies-during-the-pandemic-greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-still-rising-137809">Despite clear skies during the pandemic, greenhouse gas emissions are still rising</a>
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<p>All 22 nations improved their stringency scores to varying degrees between 1990 and 2007. The following shows the trajectory of a few example nations – Australia, Germany, Japan and United States against the OECD average. Germany had the second-highest average score over the 17 years. Australia had the worst.</p>
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<p>We then did complex calculations to measure what effect more stringent environmental policies had on economic productivity – the value of output obtained with one unit of input – both over the short run (one year) and the long run (after three years).</p>
<p>While results for individual nations varied – reflecting local circumstances – overall our results showed a consistent pattern.</p>
<p>In the short run environmental regulations did increase the cost of production. For example, a carbon tax would make coal more expensive, increasing the costs of things like steel production (which uses coal). </p>
<p>But in the long run tighter environmental policies were associated with greater productivity. This positive effect was greater in countries that took the lead on tougher environmental policies. Germany had the highest average economic productivity growth of the 22 nations.</p>
<h2>Healthier environment</h2>
<p>This positive association might be due to a cleaner environment in the long run increasing the quality of various “production inputs”, such as better health of workers. </p>
<p>For example, a <a href="https://today.duke.edu/2017/03/lead-exposure-childhood-linked-lower-iq-lower-status">significant 2017 study</a> showed higher exposure to lead (once added to fuel and paint) in childhood was associated with lower intelligence and job status in adulthood. Bans on lead additives in the 1970s have thus contributed to a smarter workforce – a key input for economic growth, as shown by the work of 2018 Nobel <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/romer/facts/">economics laureate Paul Romer</a>. </p>
<p>Environmental regulations may also prompt industries to focus on efficiency, improving their productivity in the long run. </p>
<h2>Environmental winners</h2>
<p>Our findings suggest stronger environmental protection is compatible with a stronger economy in the long run.</p>
<p>Indeed the evidence is mounting that not taking strong environmental action is likely to have serious economic consequences.</p>
<p>Research suggests, for example, that the continued <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/destroyed-habitat-creates-the-perfect-conditions-for-coronavirus-to-emerge/">destruction of natural habitats</a> is making pandemics like COVID-19 more likely, due to pathogens crossing from wild animals to humans.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-a-wake-up-call-our-war-with-the-environment-is-leading-to-pandemics-135023">Coronavirus is a wake-up call: our war with the environment is leading to pandemics</a>
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<p>Air and water pollution contributes to chemical body burden and disease. Industrialised farming practices have contributed to the loss of about a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/02/arable-land-soil-food-security-shortage">third of the world’s arable land</a> over the past 40 years. </p>
<p>Then there’s climate change. The consequences of burning fossil fuel are no longer a distant concern. Countries around the world are counting the costs of increased or more catastrophic extreme weather events and other climate impacts. </p>
<p>The countries that show leadership on environmental protection will be the economic winners in the longer run. Those that don’t will be poorer for it in more ways than one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ou Yang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This idea environmental regulation hurts the economy is deeply entrenched in pro-business discourse. Our analysis of 22 nations suggest, in the long term, the opposite is true.Ou Yang, Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1322972020-03-11T20:01:56Z2020-03-11T20:01:56ZWhy Canada should drop its net-zero pledge to cut carbon emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319706/original/file-20200310-61148-1b610ws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=166%2C129%2C5594%2C3994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">After more than 30 years of trying, Canada has yet to meet one of its carbon emissions targets. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the climate summit held in Paris in December 2015, the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed to reducing Canadian emissions of greenhouse gases (most importantly carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels) to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/progress-towards-canada-greenhouse-gas-emissions-reduction-target.html">30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Last fall, the prime minister made a new commitment, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49804234">promising that by 2050 Canadian emissions would be net-zero</a>. This means emissions would be drastically reduced and any remaining emissions would be offset by using <a href="https://qz.com/1416481/the-ultimate-guide-to-negative-emission-technologies/">negative emissions technologies</a>, such as tree planting or carbon capture from the air, to take an equivalent amount of carbon out of the atmosphere.</p>
<p>Setting aside the technical viability of such technologies, it seems entirely reasonable for the prime minister to declare these Canadian objectives. </p>
<p>To achieve any goal, we set targets and then measure our progress in achieving them. Simply saying, “I want to lose some weight” is much less useful than adopting a specific goal, such as losing four pounds a month for six months. If at the end of the first month I have only lost two pounds, I can make further changes to our diet and so keep on track. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319432/original/file-20200309-118960-1isorgb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Surely, Canada can do the same thing. We can set targets, such as those for 2030 and 2050, monitor emissions and then, as necessary, change our reduction programs to be sure the targets are met. </p>
<p>In fact, that process has not been reasonable in the case of Canadian emission targets. Rather than helping, setting targets in the way we have done to date has reduced the likelihood of reducing our emissions. </p>
<p>While researching and writing my forthcoming book, <a href="https://utorontopress.com/ca/carbon-province-hydro-province-4"><em>Carbon Province, Hydro Province: The Challenge of Canadian Energy and Climate Federalism</em></a>, I examined Ottawa’s target-setting process since <a href="http://nrt-trn.ca/chapter-2-canadas-emissions-story">the first one was set by Prime Minister Brian Mulroney in 1990</a>. </p>
<p>While successive governments may have thought they were using targets as part of a rational planning process, in fact the targets were distracting attention from our failure to make any progress at all in reducing emissions. </p>
<h2>Canada has a record of fooling itself</h2>
<p>When governments monitored progress towards emissions targets and found they were going to miss a target, they did not introduce additional reduction programs (change their diet). Instead, they set another target! </p>
<p>Should I have this extra piece of chocolate cake? Yes, of course, but first I have to change my target. Next month, I will lose five pounds instead of just four pounds — which means I can have this delicious piece of cake today. </p>
<p>In 2017, the last year for which we have data, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/cesindicators/ghg-emissions/2019/national-GHG-emissions-en.pdf">total Canadian emissions hit 716 megatonnes</a> (Mt; one Mt is one million tonnes) of greenhouse gases, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/cesindicators/ghg-emissions/2019/national-GHG-emissions-en.pdf">while in 1990, they were 602 Mt</a>. In that year, Mulroney followed the lead of other countries and promised that Canada would stabilize emissions at that 1990 level by the year 2000. Federal and provincial environment and energy ministers began meeting regularly to design reductions programs and monitor progress. </p>
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<p>In 1996, ministers were told by their staff that emissions had increased by 9.4 per cent above the 1990 level and that “<a href="https://www.pembina.org/reports/Kyoto20011211_Contribution_CC.pdf">Canada cannot achieve stabilization without significant additional actions</a>.” </p>
<p>Learning this, did ministers introduce new programs? No, instead they switched their focus to a new reduction target: at the 1997 Kyoto summit Canada committed to be six per cent below the 1990 level by 2012. </p>
<p>As it became clear we would not meet that target, <a href="https://www.ec.gc.ca/doc/publications/cc/COM1374/ec-com1374-en-es.htm">the federal government in 2010 set yet another target — 17 per cent below the 2005 level by 2020</a>, equal to 608 Mt. When elected in 2015, the Trudeau government completely ignored that 2020 target and instead <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/cesindicators/progress-towards-canada-greenhouse-gas-reduction-target/2020/progress-ghg-emissions-reduction-target.pdf">set a 2030 target of 511 Mt</a>. </p>
<h2>What should we do?</h2>
<p>Today, we have missed the first three targets and <a href="https://www.cpacanada.ca/en/news/canada/2018-09-18-canada-failing-to-reduce-greenhouse-gas-emissions">programs are not yet in place to meet the 2030 target</a>. Not to worry! Just like the cake-eating dieter, instead of focusing on our failings, we can look to our ambitions — net-zero by 2050. </p>
<p>A cynic might argue that successive Conservative and Liberal federal governments have used the target-setting process to fool voters. It’s more likely they’ve been fooling themselves, just as our chocolate-cake eater has. There is no doubting. Trudeau’s sincerity. But he is locked into a process that so far is not helping. </p>
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cuts a cake in Revelstoke, B.C. in 2017. His approach to cutting emissions has been similar to a dieter who keep helping himself to yet another piece of cake.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff Bassett</span></span>
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<p>How can we do things differently? Instead of gazing off to the distant future, Ottawa needs to look hard at what can be done today. </p>
<p>We are still 10 years away from the 2030 target. Trudeau needs to sit down now with the provincial premiers to realistically assess how much Canadians actually can and are willing to reduce and how that total reduction will be shared among provinces. </p>
<p>He could, for example, convene another federal-provincial process, as he did in early 2016, around the question of cutting greenhouse gas emissions from buildings, transportation, energy production and other sources, through laws, taxes and spending. Given the stance of the premiers of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario, the negotiations would be difficult, but not impossible — all three have essentially accepted the federal standard for the industrial carbon tax (even though they have fought the fuel tax).</p>
<p>A 2030 target generated that way might be less ambitious than reducing emissions by 30 per cent — and certainly not as sexy as net-zero — but at least it will not be counter-productive.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas Macdonald receives funding from my salary and pension from the University of Toronto and grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>Canada keeps revising and updating its emissions targets, diverting attention from its failures to make any progress at all.Douglas Macdonald, Senior Lecturer Emeritus, School of the Environment, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1332532020-03-10T13:35:54Z2020-03-10T13:35:54ZAfrica’s wish list of what might change under a Biden presidency<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319537/original/file-20200310-61084-s4ewd4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democratic presidential hopeful former Vice President Joe Biden greets supporters after addressing a Super Tuesday event in Los Angeles on March 3, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Africa’s stake in the outcome of the 3 November 2020 US presidential election spiked with the unexpected revival of former <a href="https://theconversation.com/bidens-resurrection-was-unprecedented-and-well-timed-133029">Vice-President Joe Biden’s campaign</a>. Biden is now favoured to defeat Senator Bernie Sanders to become the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/">Democratic nominee in July</a>. He is also regarded as the Democrat with the best chance of beating the Republican incumbent, <a href="https://bookies.com/news/us-presidential-election-odds-2020-weekly-rundown-super-biden">Donald J Trump</a>.</p>
<p>Biden won an overwhelming victory in the South Carolina primary thanks primarily to the fact that 60% of Democratic voters in the state are African-American. They turned out in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/black-voters-just-rescued-the-democratic-party/2020/03/05/c7a52c86-5f21-11ea-b014-4fafa866bb81_story.html">record numbers</a>. Black support has since been described as <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/02/biden-super-tuesday-black-voters-119150">Biden’s “Rocket Fuel”</a>.</p>
<p>White Democratic leaders quickly saw the imperative to join the black-led Biden bandwagon. Former Virginia governor and Democratic Party head, Terry McAuliffe, said bluntly that he’d decided to endorse Biden because he’d shown he could <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-terry-mcauliffe-endorsed-joe-biden">win black majorities</a>. </p>
<p>Five other major candidates withdrew from the Democratic race after Biden’s sweep of 10 out of 14 state primaries three days after South Carolina. They all acknowledged that <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/04/biden-victory-super-tuesday-campaign-120746">support from black voters was decisive</a>. </p>
<p>Should Biden go on to win the presidency, his political debt to African Americans will be enormous. It’s a debt he <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/joe-biden-finds-his-voice-after-a-blowout-victory-in-south-carolina">will be pressed to honour</a>. Governments, businesses and civil society throughout Africa should be putting their minds to how they could best put this to use.</p>
<p>Relations between Africans and the African diaspora have a long history that is extensive and complex. In addition to the descendants of slavery, African Americans now include millions of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/24/key-facts-about-black-immigrants-in-the-u-s/">first-generation African citizens empowered to vote</a>. And a recent outpouring of investigations by African-American and African scholars into their historic and ongoing ties to Africa – including Professor Nemata Blyden of George Washington University new book, <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300198669/african-americans-and-africa">African Americans and Africa</a> – adds fresh richness and political relevance to this <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/14/magazine/1619-america-slavery.html">process of convergence</a>. </p>
<h2>Benefits for Africa?</h2>
<p>For the most part Trump has ignored Africa. The exceptions have been his publicised <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-referred-haiti-african-countries-shithole-nations-n836946">vulgar aspersion</a>, and an occasional <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/trump-wants-pompeo-to-study-killing-of-farmers/10158114">critical tweet</a>. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, there has been the continuity of US programmes that are largely the work of professional civil servants. These are led by Assistant Secretary of State, <a href="https://www.state.gov/biographies/tibor-p-nagy-jr/">Tibor Nagy</a>, a former career diplomat with African experience that began in 1978.</p>
<p>Earlier this month Nagy delivered a public address on Africa policy. The lecture highlighted the continuation of practical programmes, welcomed in Africa, that were begun by previous administrations – Republicans and Democrats. Included in the list were partnerships in public health (HIV/AIDS), <a href="https://agoa.info/about-agoa.html">trade preferences</a>, security cooperation, energy, agriculture and education. Nagy even had positive words for Obama’s ongoing initiative, <a href="https://yali.state.gov/">Young African Leaders Initiative</a>. </p>
<p>US policy on Africa is one the few areas that continue to enjoy bi-partisan support by Democrats and Republicans. It remains a key asset for Africans. It would be a good area for Biden to show his commitment to working with leaders of both parties to restore a greater sense of national unity and purpose. For Africa, this would mean a common commitment to meeting global challenges that affect the continent. The list includes climate change, famine, forced migrations and regional peace and security. </p>
<p>Should Biden take over the presidency he would adopt policies that would restore the cooperative links that prevailed under Obama. And he is much more likely to base his polices on scientific evidence, not political expediency. This has been dramatically shown by the contrast in Obama’s response to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/">Trump’s shambolic handling of the current coronavirus</a>. </p>
<p>There would also likely be a resumption of US support for multilateral initiatives such as the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/01/16/heres-how-chinas-interests-in-africa-will-shape-u-s-china-relations-in-the-trump-era/">“Green Climate Fund”</a> for African and other seriously affected developing countries. The lead funders of this important initiative for Africa were China and the US. This is an important reminder that these two major powers can cooperate in partnership with African governments in mutually beneficial ways. </p>
<p>Trump <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/10/25/green-climate-fund-replenishment-fails-fill-hole-left-trumps-us/">reneged on this agreement</a>. He has also given notice that the US will withdraw from the global <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/climate/trump-paris-agreement-climate.html">Paris Climate Accord</a>. We may expect that one of Biden’s early acts would be to restore both commitments.</p>
<p>Finally, African governments should press for a quick termination of the confrontational posture outlined in the Trump administration’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-national-security-advisor-ambassador-john-r-bolton-trump-administrations-new-africa-strategy/">National Security Policy toward Africa</a>.</p>
<p>Biden, unlike Trump, regards democratic inclusiveness at home and multilateral cooperation abroad as complementary cornerstones for more effective and productive domestic and foreign relations. His broad strategy would be in sync with the fact based politics that Obama called for in his 2018 <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/07/17/629862434/transcript-obamas-speech-at-the-2018-nelson-mandela-annual-lecture">tribute to Nelson Mandela</a>. It would contrast starkly with <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/the-inaugural-address/">Trump’s dire inaugural address in 2017</a>. </p>
<p>A Biden presidency should also reassure those in Africa and elsewhere who fear that <a href="https://freedomhouse.org/article/new-report-freedom-world-2020-finds-established-democracies-are-decline">democracy is in perilous decline</a>.</p>
<p>It is a good bet he will try and reverse the damage done by Trump. He might even seek to implement long overdue political and economic reforms at home that could render America a more capable and reliable partner abroad. </p>
<p>African Americans are at the epicentre of this process and that could prove to be Africa’s most important stake in the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51070020">2020 US election</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133253/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John J Stremlau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A Biden presidency would be highly likely to adopt policies that would restore the cooperative links that prevailed under Obama.John J Stremlau, Honorary Professor of International Relations, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1290012019-12-18T13:49:20Z2019-12-18T13:49:20ZThe Madrid climate conference’s real failure was not getting a broad deal on global carbon markets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307491/original/file-20191217-58326-uekoow.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Activists protest outside of COP25 climate talks in Madrid, Dec. 14, 2019.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Spain-Climate-Talks/07f310659b5241239a7a61899c0f6e26/15/0">AP Photo/Manu Fernandez</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Press accounts of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/cop25">Madrid climate conference</a> that adjourned on Dec. 15 are calling it a failure in the face of inspirational calls from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2019/dec/16/stop-taking-up-space-with-your-false-solutions-say-furious-activists-at-un-cop25">youth activists</a> and others for greater ambition. But based on my 25 years <a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/project/harvard-project-climate-agreements">following and analyzing this process</a> together with scholars and government officials from around the world, I believe the reality is more complicated.</p>
<p>True, this round of climate talks did not produce an aspirational statement calling for greater ambition in the next round of national pledges. In my view, that’s not actually very significant in terms of its real effects, even though organizations such as <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/international/campaign/cop25/">Greenpeace</a> and <a href="https://rebellion.earth/event/rebels-beyond-borders-at-cop25/">Extinction Rebellion</a> framed this as the key task for this meeting. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the talks failed to reach one of their key stated goals: writing meaningful rules to help facilitate global carbon markets. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TcoarRAAAAAJ&hl=en">As an economist</a>, I see this as a real disappointment – although not the <a href="https://intpolicydigest.org/2019/12/16/climate-change-accounting-the-failure-of-cop25/">fatal failure</a> some portray it to be.</p>
<h2>Tackling the free-rider problem</h2>
<p>Here’s some context to explain why international cooperation is essential to tackle climate change. Regardless of where they’re emitted, greenhouse gases mix in the atmosphere. That’s different from other air pollutants, which can affect localities or large areas, but not the entire world. </p>
<p>This means that any jurisdiction that reduces its emissions incurs all of the costs of doing so, but receives only a share of the global benefits. Everyone has an incentive to free-ride, relying on others to cut emissions while taking minimal steps themselves.</p>
<p>Recognizing this problem, nations adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. As with many other international treaties, member countries agreed to hold regular meetings to devise rules for achieving the goals set out in the agreement. That’s how the Conference of Parties, or COP, process was launched. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OEqZ7bS0oQM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres urges delegates in Madrid to accelerate action against climate change.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why climate change is a wicked problem</h2>
<p>If the pace of progress at these meetings seems slow, keep in mind three factors that make their task enormously challenging.</p>
<p>First, every nation has an incentive to exploit the atmosphere and rely on other countries to cut emissions.</p>
<p>Second, making reductions costs money up front – but since carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere and warm the Earth for up to a century, many of the benefits of cutting emissions accrue much later. </p>
<p>Third, the costs of cutting emissions fall on particular sectors – notably, fossil fuel interests – that have a strong monetary incentive to fight back. But the benefits are broadly distributed across the general public. Some people <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/video/climate-change-activist-greta-thunberg-speaks-out-at-cop-25-u-n-climate-conference-74896965984">care passionately about this issue</a>, while others <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2019/11/25/u-s-public-views-on-climate-and-energy/">give it little thought</a>.</p>
<p>At the COP-1 meeting in 1995 in Berlin, members decided that some of the wealthiest countries would commit to targets and timetables for emission reductions, but there would be no commitments for other countries. Two years later, nations adopted the Kyoto Protocol, which set quantitative targets only for Annex I (largely wealthy) countries.</p>
<p>That wasn’t a broad enough foundation to solve the climate challenge. Annex I countries alone could not reduce global emissions, since the most significant growth was coming from large emerging economies – China, India, Brazil, Korea, South Africa, Mexico and Indonesia – that were not part of the Annex I group.</p>
<h2>Everybody in</h2>
<p>At negotiations in 2009 in Copenhagen and 2010 in Cancun, distinctions between wealthy and developing countries began to blur. This culminated in an agreement at Durban, South Africa, in 2011 that all countries would come under the same legal framework in a post-Kyoto agreement, to be completed in 2015 in Paris.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">Paris Agreement</a> provided a promising, fresh approach. It proposed a bottom-up strategy in which all 195 participating countries would specify their own targets, consistent with their national circumstances and domestic political realities. </p>
<p>This convinced many more nations to sign up. Countries that joined the Paris Agreement represented 97% of global greenhouse gas emissions, compared to 14% currently under the Kyoto Protocol. But it also gave every country an incentive to minimize its own actions while benefiting from other nations’ reductions. It is worth noting that China overtook the United States in 2006 as the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/news070618-9">world’s largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases</a>, but the U.S. remains the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jx85qK1ztAc">largest historical contributor</a> to the accumulated stock of GHGs in the atmosphere.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307488/original/file-20191217-58326-bqty7p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307488/original/file-20191217-58326-bqty7p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/307488/original/file-20191217-58326-bqty7p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307488/original/file-20191217-58326-bqty7p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307488/original/file-20191217-58326-bqty7p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307488/original/file-20191217-58326-bqty7p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307488/original/file-20191217-58326-bqty7p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/307488/original/file-20191217-58326-bqty7p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=629&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Large developing countries like China and India are major carbon sources now, but most cumulative emissions over the past two centuries have come from wealthy nations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2019/10/Cumulative-CO2-treemap.png">Hannah Ritchie/Our World in Data</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Growing carbon markets</h2>
<p>Are there ways to persuade nations to increase their commitments over time? One key strategy is linking national policies, so that emitters can buy and sell carbon emissions allowances or credits across borders. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-climatechange-carbonmarket/u-s-canadian-provinces-launch-first-cap-and-trade-auction-to-battle-climate-change-idUSKCN1G52T7">California and Quebec</a> have linked their emissions trading systems. On Jan. 1, 2020, the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/agreement-linking-emissions-trading-systems-eu-and-switzerland_en">European Union and Switzerland</a> will do likewise. </p>
<p>Note, however, that such linking need not be restricted to pairs of cap-and-trade systems. Rather, heterogeneous linkage among cap-and-trade, carbon taxes and performance standards is <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/stavins/files/linking_heterogeneous_climate_policies_consistent_with_the_paris_agreement_in_journal_january_2019_002.pdf">perfectly feasible</a>.</p>
<p>Expanding carbon markets in this way lowers costs, enabling countries to be more ambitious. One recent study estimates that linkage could, in theory, <a href="https://www.ieta.org/page-18192/7895908">reduce compliance costs by 75%</a>.</p>
<p>But for such systems to be meaningful, each country’s steps must be correctly counted toward its national target under the Paris Agreement. This is where Article 6 of the Paris Agreement comes in. Writing the rules for this article was the primary task for negotiators in Madrid (28 other articles were completed at the 2018 COP in Katowice, Poland). </p>
<p>Unfortunately, Brazil, Australia and a few other countries insisted on adopting accounting loopholes that made it impossible to reach agreement in Madrid on Article 6. Negotiators had an opportunity to define clear and consistent guidance for accounting for emissions transfers but failed to close a deal. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1206314234071658497"}"></div></p>
<p>But if they had adopted guidance that extended much beyond basic accounting rules, as some countries wanted, the result could have been restrictive requirements that would actually impede effective linkage. This would have made it more expensive, not less, for nations to achieve their Paris targets. As Teresa Ribera, minister for the Ecological Transition of Spain, observed at COP-25, “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-04/spain-says-no-deal-better-than-bad-agreement-on-carbon-at-cop2">No deal is better than a bad deal</a>” on carbon markets and Article 6. </p>
<p>The baton for completing Article 6 has been passed to COP-26 in Glasgow in November 2020. In the meantime, without agreement on an overall set of rules, countries may develop their own rules for international linkages that can foster high-integrity carbon markets, as California, Quebec, the European Union and Switzerland already have. If negotiators can keep their eyes on the prize and resist being diverted by demands from activists and interest groups, I believe real success is still possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129001/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Stavins has served as a consultant on the design of cap-and-trade systems for the Western States Petroleum Association. The work of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program and the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements have received funding from a variety of foundations, which are listed on the respective websites. Stavins is a member of the Board of Directors of Resources for the Future.</span></em></p>Activists wanted nations to make bigger climate commitments at the Madrid COP-25 meeting, but the meeting’s real goal was agreeing on rules for pricing carbon pollution.Robert Stavins, A.J. Meyer Professor of Energy and Economic Development, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1263202019-11-07T19:12:34Z2019-11-07T19:12:34ZEmperor Penguins could march to extinction if nations fail to halt climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300526/original/file-20191106-12506-1t8jlj1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5607%2C3732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Emperor Penguin in Antarctica. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephanie Jenouvrier</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The concept of a <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/story-real-canary-coal-mine-180961570/">canary in a coal mine</a> – a sensitive species that provides an alert to danger – originated with British miners, who carried actual canaries underground through the mid-1980s to detect the presence of deadly carbon monoxide gas. Today another bird, the Emperor Penguin, is providing a similar warning about the planetary effects of burning fossil fuels.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://web.whoi.edu/jenouvrier/">seabird ecologist</a>, I develop mathematical models to understand and predict <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=E9vG0JoAAAAJ&hl=en">how seabirds respond to environmental change</a>. My research integrates many areas of science, including the expertise of <a href="https://staff.ucar.edu/users/mholland">climatologists</a>, to improve our ability to anticipate future ecological consequences of climate change. </p>
<p>Most recently, I worked with colleagues to combine what we know about the life history of Emperor Penguins with different potential <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069563">climate scenarios</a> outlined in the 2015 <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>, to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. We wanted to understand how climate change could affect this iconic species, whose unique life habits were documented in the award-winning film “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0428803/">March of the Penguins</a>.” </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864">newly published study</a> found that if climate change continues at its current rate, Emperor Penguins could virtually disappear by the year 2100 due to loss of Antarctic sea ice. However, a more aggressive global climate policy can halt the penguins’ march to extinction. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300527/original/file-20191106-12521-1x20i4x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300527/original/file-20191106-12521-1x20i4x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300527/original/file-20191106-12521-1x20i4x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300527/original/file-20191106-12521-1x20i4x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300527/original/file-20191106-12521-1x20i4x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300527/original/file-20191106-12521-1x20i4x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300527/original/file-20191106-12521-1x20i4x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300527/original/file-20191106-12521-1x20i4x.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emperor Penguins breeding on sea ice in Terre Adélie, Antarctica.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephanie Jenouvrier</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere</h2>
<p>As many scientific reports have shown, human activities are increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in Earth’s atmosphere, which is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">warming the planet</a>. Today atmospheric CO2 levels stand at slightly over 410 parts per million, well above anything the planet has experienced in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1692-3">millions of years</a>. </p>
<p>If this trend continues, scientists project that CO2 in the atmosphere could reach 950 parts per million by 2100. These conditions would produce <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">a very different world</a> from today’s. </p>
<p>Emperor Penguins are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108216">living indicators</a> whose population trends can illustrate the consequences of these changes. Although they are found in Antarctica, far from human civilization, they live in such delicate balance with their rapidly changing environment that they have become modern-day canaries. </p>
<h2>A fate tied to sea ice</h2>
<p>I have spent almost 20 years studying Emperor Penguins’ unique adaptations to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/08-2289.1">harsh conditions of their sea ice home</a>. Each year, the surface of the ocean around Antarctica freezes over in the winter and melts back in summer. Penguins use the ice as a home base for breeding, feeding and molting, arriving at their colony from ocean waters in March or April after sea ice has formed for the Southern Hemisphere’s winter season. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300691/original/file-20191107-10952-133d77a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300691/original/file-20191107-10952-133d77a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300691/original/file-20191107-10952-133d77a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300691/original/file-20191107-10952-133d77a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300691/original/file-20191107-10952-133d77a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300691/original/file-20191107-10952-133d77a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300691/original/file-20191107-10952-133d77a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300691/original/file-20191107-10952-133d77a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">54 known Emperor Penguin colonies around Antarctica (black dots) and sea ice cover (blue color).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephanie Jenouvrier</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In mid-May the female lays a single egg. Throughout the winter, males keep the eggs warm while females make a long trek to open water to feed during the most unforgiving weather on Earth.</p>
<p>When female penguins return to their newly hatched chicks with food, the males have fasted for four months and lost almost half their weight. After the egg hatches, both parents take turns feeding and protecting their chick. In September, the adults leave their young so that they can both forage to meet their chick’s growing appetite. In December, everyone leaves the colony and returns to the ocean. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Emperor Penguin fathers incubate a single egg until it hatches.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout this annual cycle, the penguins rely on a sea ice “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x">Goldilocks zone</a>” of conditions to thrive. They need openings in the ice that provide access to the water so they can feed, but also a thick, stable platform of ice to raise their chicks. </p>
<h2>Penguin population trends</h2>
<p>For more than 60 years, scientists have extensively studied one Emperor Penguin colony in Antarctica, called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/35075554">Terre Adélie</a>. This research has enabled us to understand how sea ice conditions affect the birds’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/05-0514">population dynamics</a>. In the 1970s, for example, the population experienced a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2004.2978">dramatic decline</a> when several consecutive years of low sea ice cover caused <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/35075554">widespread deaths</a> among male penguins. </p>
<p>Over the past 10 years, my colleagues and I have combined what we know about these relationships between sea ice and fluctuations in penguin life histories to create a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/10.1086/652436.pdf">demographic model</a> that allows us to understand how sea ice conditions affect the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x">abundance of Emperor Penguins</a>, and to project their numbers based on forecasts of future sea ice cover in Antarctica.</p>
<p>Once we confirmed that our model <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2280">successfully reproduced past observed trends</a> in Emperor Penguin populations around all Antarctica, we expanded our analysis into a species-level threat assessment.</p>
<h2>Climate conditions determine emperor penguins’ fate</h2>
<p>When we used a climate model linked to our population model to project what is likely to happen to sea ice if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their present trend, we found that all 54 known Emperor Penguin colonies would be in decline by 2100, and 80% of them would be quasi-extinct. Accordingly, we estimate that the total number of Emperor Penguins will decline by 86% relative to its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0033751">current size</a> of roughly 250,000 if nations fail to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300692/original/file-20191107-10901-p3dyta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300692/original/file-20191107-10901-p3dyta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300692/original/file-20191107-10901-p3dyta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300692/original/file-20191107-10901-p3dyta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300692/original/file-20191107-10901-p3dyta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300692/original/file-20191107-10901-p3dyta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300692/original/file-20191107-10901-p3dyta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300692/original/file-20191107-10901-p3dyta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Without action to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, sea ice loss (shown in blue) will eradicate most Emperor Penguin colonies by 2100.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephanie Jenouvrier</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, if the global community acts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and succeeds in stabilizing average global temperatures at 1.5 degrees Celsius (3 degrees Faherenheit) above pre-industrial levels, we estimate that Emperor Penguin numbers would decline by 31% – still drastic, but viable.</p>
<p>Less-stringent cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, leading to a global temperature rise of 2°C, would result in a 44% decline. </p>
<p>Our model indicates that these population declines will occur predominately in the first half of this century. Nonetheless, in a scenario in which the world meets the Paris climate targets, we project that the global Emperor Penguin population would nearly stabilize by 2100, and that viable refuges would remain available to support some colonies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300560/original/file-20191107-12470-tqlnju.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300560/original/file-20191107-12470-tqlnju.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300560/original/file-20191107-12470-tqlnju.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300560/original/file-20191107-12470-tqlnju.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300560/original/file-20191107-12470-tqlnju.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300560/original/file-20191107-12470-tqlnju.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300560/original/file-20191107-12470-tqlnju.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300560/original/file-20191107-12470-tqlnju.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global action to limit climate change through 2100 could greatly improve Emperor Penguins’ persistence/viability.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Stephanie Jenouvrier</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In a changing climate, individual penguins may move to new locations to find more suitable conditions. Our population model included complex <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2017.05.017">dispersal processes</a> to account for these movements. However, we find that these actions are not enough to offset climate-driven global population declines. In short, global climate policy has much more influence over the future of Emperor Penguins than the penguins’ ability to move to better habitat.</p>
<p>Our findings starkly illustrate the far-reaching implications of national climate policy decisions. Curbing carbon dioxide emissions has critical implications for Emperor Penguins and an untold number of other species for which science has yet to document such a plain-spoken warning.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126320/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Jenouvrier receives funding from the National Science foundation, which supported the work described in this article. </span></em></p>Emperor Penguins thrive in harsh conditions, but a new study shows that their fate depends on human action to slow global warming and associated loss of sea ice.Stephanie Jenouvrier, Associate Scientist, Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1249322019-10-10T21:06:53Z2019-10-10T21:06:53Z‘Mr. Delay, Mr. Deny’ and Canada’s precarious climate change future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296468/original/file-20191010-188829-bktbup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C299%2C4087%2C1764&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer square off about their climate change proposals and other issues during the recent federal leaders' debate.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the recent federal leaders’ debate, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer only distinguished himself on climate issues by earning the title of <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/jagmeet-singh-mr-delay-mr-deny_ca_5d9be6a7e4b099389805345a">“Mr. Deny” from Jagmeet Singh</a>, leader of the New Democrats.</p>
<p>But Scheer nonetheless had two important insights into environmental issues raised during the campaign. </p>
<p>First, <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/andrew-scheer-climate-justin-trudeau_ca_5d8e8a63e4b0019647a8b738">he reiterated the contradictions</a> of the Liberal government’s approach to climate change, noting of Justin Trudeau’s participation in the Sept. 28 climate strike march in Montreal:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I find it interesting and ironic that Justin Trudeau is actually protesting his own government’s record on the environment.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Second, he has noticed, correctly, that for the most part, “the largest (industrial) emitters receive an exemption” from the Liberal’s carbon pricing system.</p>
<p>Of course, rather than addressing these contradictions and gaps by strengthening the way the carbon pricing system applies to large industrial polluters, the Conservatives would simply scrap the “job-killing” carbon pricing system altogether. </p>
<p>That, as Trudeau rightly pointed out, would remove the central element of Canada’s strategy for meeting its obligations under the Paris climate change agreement and effectively replace it with — if based on the feeble contents of the Conservatives’ own <a href="https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/andrew-scheers-climate-plan/">climate strategy</a> so far — nothing. </p>
<p>At the same time, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4482140/andrew-scheer-trans-mountain-plan/">Scheer promises to use long-dormant Constitutional powers </a> to override provincial and Indigenous objections to a national energy corridor that seems designed to cement Canada’s role as a high-carbon export economy for decades to come. </p>
<h2>Separatism revival?</h2>
<p>It’s difficult to imagine a better strategy for reviving the otherwise moribund separatist movement in Québec given the strength of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/don-t-count-on-quebec-backing-energy-east-pipeline-revival-province-s-premier-warns-1.4935554">the objections to the proposed Energy East pipeline throughout the province</a>.</p>
<p>That said, Scheer’s observations about the Liberal government’s contradictions on the climate file emphasize the point that the approval, then the $4.5 billion purchase, then re-approval of the Alberta-to-Vancouver Trans Mountain pipeline has become a millstone around the Trudeau government’s neck when it comes to appealing to progressive voters.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-liberals-make-it-hard-for-green-voters-to-love-them-122935">Canada's Liberals make it hard for green voters to love them</a>
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<p>The defection of those voters to Singh’s NDP and Elizabeth May’s Greens threatens Trudeau’s majority government, and perhaps his ability to form a government at all. </p>
<p>Ironically, with the exception of the Trans Mountain pipeline question, the government’s record on the environment and climate change, although not perfect, is certainly respectable. </p>
<p>Trudeau’s Liberals have done more than any previous federal government to implement effective policy measures to reduce GHG emissions. They achieved a federal-provincial near-consensus (only Saskatchewan and Manitoba refused to sign) on the December 2016 <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-premiers-climate-deal-1.3888244">Pan-Canadian Framework for Clean Growth and Climate Change</a>. </p>
<p>In the aftermath of that agreement, which included commitments by all provinces to adopt some form of carbon pricing, Trudeau has stood remarkably firm in the face of opposition from newly elected Conservative premiers in Ontario, Alberta and New Brunswick. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296476/original/file-20191010-188840-zbhb4n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296476/original/file-20191010-188840-zbhb4n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296476/original/file-20191010-188840-zbhb4n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296476/original/file-20191010-188840-zbhb4n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296476/original/file-20191010-188840-zbhb4n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296476/original/file-20191010-188840-zbhb4n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296476/original/file-20191010-188840-zbhb4n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford, left, and Jason Kenney greet supporters on stage an anti-carbon tax rally in Calgary in October 2018, prior to Kenney becoming Alberta premier in April 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/technical-paper-federal-carbon-pricing-backstop.html">The federal carbon pricing backstop</a> is now being implemented in whole or in part in six provinces and all three territories. It was originally expected that, under the Pan-Canadian Framework, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pan-canadian-framework-reports/first-annual-report/annex-1.html">all of the provinces would implement their own carbon pricing systems</a>. A major federal role in the process was never anticipated. </p>
<p>To its credit, Trudeau’s government <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work/putting-price-on-carbon-pollution.html">has applied</a> the federal backstop as provinces abandoned their commitments under the Pan-Canadian Framework and dismantled their own carbon pricing systems. </p>
<p>The government’s support for the Trans Mountain project was grounded in a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/notley-trudeau-climate-oil-analysis-wherry-1.5099836">deal with former Alberta premier Rachel Notley</a>, exchanging a federal commitment to pursue a pipeline to tidewater for Alberta’s constructive engagement in a national climate change strategy. </p>
<h2>Fair trade-off</h2>
<p>This was, arguably, a reasonable trade-off. Alberta’s refusal to engage in discussions of serious climate change policies had been the key <a href="https://sei.info.yorku.ca/files/2019/10/July-19-Winfield-Macdonald-Working.pdf">stumbling block</a> in more than two decades of efforts to formulate an effective national climate change strategy following the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Rio Conference in 1992. </p>
<p>Notley’s NDP government was initially true to its word and <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/da6433da-69b7-4d15-9123-01f76004f574/resource/b42b1f43-7b9d-483d-aa2a-6f9b4290d81e/download/clp_implementation_plan-jun07.pdf">did engage</a> seriously on the climate change issue. It participated in the 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework, implemented a carbon tax in Alberta, initiated a phaseout of coal-fired electricity and launched major strategies around energy efficiency and renewable energy. </p>
<p>None of these things can be said of Notley’s successor, Jason Kenney, who as leader of the United Conservative party became the premier of Alberta in April.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jason-kenneys-victory-means-well-all-pay-the-price-for-fossil-fuel-emissions-115682">Jason Kenney's victory means we'll all pay the price for fossil fuel emissions</a>
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<p>Rather, Kenney has made a point of shredding Notley’s climate change strategy, particularly the carbon tax. Kenney has signalled his intention to <a href="https://theconversation.com/work-on-climate-not-weaponizing-the-constitution-116710">join the quixotic</a> challenges by Ontario and Saskatchewan to the federal carbon pricing system to the Supreme Court of Canada. </p>
<p>He’s also <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/its-about-the-rule-of-law-jason-kenney-launches-legal-challenge-against-controversial-bill-c-69">challenging</a> the federal government’s new environmental assessment legislation, Bill C-69.</p>
<p>The situation begs the question: If Alberta has walked away from its part of the bargain, why is Trudeau — dubbed “Mr. Delay” by Singh in the debate — still trying to move the Trans Mountain project forward? </p>
<h2>Why not put pipeline on hold?</h2>
<p>Wouldn’t it have been a better political and climate change strategy to put the pipeline on hold until Kenney agrees to re-engage, in a serious and constructive manner, on climate change? </p>
<p>The political cost of such an approach appears to be low. Trudeau’s continued support for the project seems to be winning him few friends in Alberta anyway. At the same time, it would have given the Liberal leader a much stronger response to his Green and NDP challengers. </p>
<p>It would have also provided a better justification for joining Greta Thunberg’s climate strike — Trudeau could have argued he was protesting the governments of Alberta, Ontario, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and New Brunswick and their refusal to take the issue seriously. </p>
<p>The future of Canada’s first serious attempt and — as May pointed out during the debate, potentially last opportunity — to actually implement an effective national climate change strategy now hangs in the balance on Oct. 21. </p>
<p>The Liberal government’s deepening contradictions on energy and environmental matters has played no small part in creating the precarious situation in which Canada now finds itself.</p>
<p>Future generations may well be justified in saying, as Thunberg recently did in her speech to the United Nations: <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-49795221/thunberg-if-you-choose-to-fail-us-we-will-never-forgive-you">“We will never forgive you.”</a> </p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124932/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and the George Cedric Metcalf Foundation </span></em></p>Canada’s first serious attempt, and potentially last opportunity, to implement a national climate strategy hangs in the balance on Oct. 21. The Trudeau government is to blame for its precarity.Mark Winfield, Professor of Environmental Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1148972019-09-12T11:05:53Z2019-09-12T11:05:53ZChina is positioned to lead on climate change as the US rolls back its policies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291837/original/file-20190910-190044-11yudxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smoke from a coal-fired Beijing power plant that closed in 2017 as part of China's transition to cleaner energy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/China-Pollution-Deaths/25c1adc8b8524f89815665bbe66dfb62/49/0">AP Photo/Andy Wong</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">effects of climate change</a> become more widespread and alarming, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/">called on nations</a> to step up their plans for cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Every country has a part to play, but if the world’s largest emitters fail to meet their commitments, the goal of holding global warming to a manageable level will remain out of reach. </p>
<p>U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/08/683258294/u-s-carbon-dioxide-emissions-are-once-again-on-the-rise">on the rise</a> after several years of decline, due in part to the Trump administration’s repeal or delay of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/04/politics/trump-climate-change-policy-rollbacks/index.html">Obama administration policies</a>. In contrast, China – the world largest emitter – appears to be honoring its climate targets under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">2015 Paris Agreement</a>, as we documented in a <a href="http://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09159-0">recent article with colleagues</a>.</p>
<p>We study many aspects of China’s <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UCgFHW8AAAAJ&hl=en">energy and climate policy</a>, including <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Wx_drAEAAAAJ&hl=en">industrial energy efficiency and reforestration</a>. Our analysis indicates that if China fully executes existing policies and finishes reforming its electric power sector into a market-based system, its carbon dioxide emissions are likely to peak well before its 2030 target. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1161967694004047873"}"></div></p>
<h2>China’s climate portfolio</h2>
<p>Over the last decade China has <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-china-climate-change-is-no-hoax-its-a-business-and-political-opportunity-69191">positioned itself as a global leader</a> on climate action through aggressive investments and a bold mix of climate, renewable energy, energy efficiency and economic policies. As one of us (Kelly Sims Gallagher) documents in the recent book <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/titans-climate">“Titans of the Climate</a>,” China has implemented more than 100 policies related to lowering its energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>Notable examples include a <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=11471">feed-in-tariff policy</a> for renewable energy generators, which offers them a guaranteed price for their power; energy efficiency standards for power plants, motor vehicles, buildings and equipment; targets for energy production from non-fossil sources; and mandated caps on coal consumption.</p>
<p>China has added vast wind and solar installations to its grid and developed large domestic industries to manufacture solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. In late 2017 it launched a <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/china-to-launch-world-s-largest-emissions-trading-system">national emissions trading system</a>, which creates a market for buying and selling carbon dioxide emissions allowances. This was a profoundly symbolic step, given that the United States still has not adopted a national market-based climate policy. </p>
<p>Most of these policies will produce additional benefits, such as improving China’s energy security, promoting economic reform and reducing ground-level air pollution. The only major program explicitly aimed at reducing carbon dioxide is the emissions trading system.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291631/original/file-20190909-109919-15b1ns4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291631/original/file-20190909-109919-15b1ns4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291631/original/file-20190909-109919-15b1ns4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291631/original/file-20190909-109919-15b1ns4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291631/original/file-20190909-109919-15b1ns4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291631/original/file-20190909-109919-15b1ns4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291631/original/file-20190909-109919-15b1ns4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291631/original/file-20190909-109919-15b1ns4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China will need to carry out multiple policies to start reducing its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 – most importantly, reforming its electric power sector.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09159-0/figures/7">Gallagher et al., 2019.</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Major challenges and policy gaps</h2>
<p>Under the Paris Agreement, China committed to start reducing its carbon dioxide emissions and derive 20% of its energy from non-fossil fuels by around 2030. But when Chinese emissions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/05/brutal-news-global-carbon-emissions-jump-to-all-time-high-in-2018">rose in 2018</a>, international observers feared that Beijing might fail to meet its targets. We analyzed China’s actions to assess that risk.</p>
<p>In our review, we found that the policies with the greatest influence over China’s projected emissions in 2030 were power sector reform, industrial transformation, industrial efficiency, emissions trading and light-duty vehicle efficiency.</p>
<p>Reforming the electric power sector is an essential step. Traditionally, electricity pricing schemes in China were determined by the <a href="https://www.uschina.org/policy/national-development-and-reform-commission">National Development and Reform Commission</a>, which leads the country’s macroeconomic planning. They favored existing power producers, particularly coal plants, not the cleanest or most efficient sources. </p>
<p>China committed to electric power reform, <a href="https://www.raponline.org/blog/a-new-framework-for-chinas-power-sector/">including emission reductions and greater use of renewables</a>, in 2015. Converting to a process under which grid managers buy electricity from generators starting with the lowest-cost sources should facilitate installation and use of renewables, since renewable electricity has almost zero marginal costs. Meanwhile, renewable energy projects across China, especially solar, have become <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-now-cheaper-than-grid-electricity-in-every-chinese-city-study-finds">cheaper than grid electricity</a>.</p>
<p>Even as China made big investments in wind and solar power in recent years, it also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-power-capacity/china-suspends-new-coal-fired-power-plants-in-29-provinces-report-idUSKBN1880P4">kept building coal plants</a>. Power sector reform will help reduce the resulting overcapacity by stopping planned additions and encouraging market competition. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PY29hugrfNY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Reducing China’s reliance on coal energy is an enormous long-term shift.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But success is not guaranteed. The affected companies are giant state-owned enterprises. There is political resistance from owners of existing coal-fired power plants and from provinces that produce and use a lot of coal. The current U.S.-China trade war is slowing China’s economic growth and spurring <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/china-is-facing-employment-challenges-as-its-economy-slows-official.html">rising concerns about employment</a>, which could further complicate the reform process.</p>
<p>China’s emissions trading system has had a very modest impact so far because it set a low initial price on carbon dioxide emissions: US$7 per ton, increasing by 3% annually through 2030. But our analysis found that emissions trading, which allows low-carbon generators to make money by selling emissions allowances that they don’t need, could become influential over the longer term if it can sustain a much higher price. If China reduces its cap on total carbon dioxide emissions after 2025, which will increase the price of emissions allowances, this policy could become a major driver for emission reductions in the power sector. </p>
<p>Energy efficiency standards, particularly for coal-fired power plants, factories and motor vehicles, will also be very important over the coming decade. To continue driving progress, China will need to update these standards continuously. </p>
<p>Finally, there are some important gaps in China’s climate policies. Currently they only target carbon dioxide emissions, although China also generates significant quantities of other greenhouse gases, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2014.01.009">methane and black carbon</a>. </p>
<p>And China is contributing to emissions outside of its borders by <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f965fa22-9be4-11e8-9702-5946bae86e6d">exporting coal equipment</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/25/belt-and-road-summit-puts-spotlight-on-chinese-coal-funding">directly financing overseas coal plants</a> through its Belt and Road Initiative. No nation, including China, currently reports emissions generated abroad in its national emissions inventory.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291842/original/file-20190910-190035-suytqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291842/original/file-20190910-190035-suytqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291842/original/file-20190910-190035-suytqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291842/original/file-20190910-190035-suytqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291842/original/file-20190910-190035-suytqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291842/original/file-20190910-190035-suytqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291842/original/file-20190910-190035-suytqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291842/original/file-20190910-190035-suytqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coal projects currently financed by China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://endcoal.org/finance-tracker/">Global Coal Finance Tracker</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Following through</h2>
<p>The biggest challenge China faces in achieving its Paris targets is making sure that business and local governments comply with policies and regulations that the government has already put in place. In the past, China has sometimes struggled with environmental enforcement at the local level when provincial and city governments <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2012.05.005">prioritized economic development over the environment</a>.</p>
<p>Assuming that China does carry out its existing and announced climate and energy policies, we think its carbon dioxide emissions could likely peak well before 2030. In our view, Chinese leaders should focus on completing power sector reform as soon as possible, implementing and strengthening emissions trading, making energy efficiency standards more stringent in the future and developing new carbon pricing policies for sectors such as iron, steel and transportation. </p>
<p>If they succeed, U.S. politicians will no longer have “But what about China?” as an excuse for opposing climate policies at home.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://energyinnovation.org/team-member/robbie-orvis/">Robbie Orvis</a> and <a href="https://energyinnovation.org/team-member/jeffrey-rissman/">Jeffrey Rissman</a> from <a href="https://energyinnovation.org/">Energy Innovation</a> and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/qiang-liu-b66a262a/?originalSubdomain=cn">Qiang Lu</a> from the <a href="https://www.ctc-n.org/about-ctcn/national-designated-entities/national-center-climate-change-strategy-and-international">National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation</a> in China co-authored the study described in this article.</em></p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114897/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelly Sims Gallagher currently receives sponsored research grants from BP, Breakthrough Energy, Casey & Family Foundation, ClimateWorks, The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and U.S. Department of Defense. The Energy Foundation provided support for this research project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fang Zhang receives funding from BP, Breakthrough Energy, Casey & Family Foundation, ClimateWorks, The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and the Department of Defense. The Energy Foundation provided support for this research project.</span></em></p>The United Nations is calling on world governments to step up action against climate change. Can China, the world’s biggest carbon emitter, fulfill its pledges?Kelly Sims Gallagher, Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy and Director, Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityFang Zhang, China Research Coordinator and Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1169492019-05-16T21:01:02Z2019-05-16T21:01:02ZWhy decarbonizing marine transportation might not be smooth sailing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275005/original/file-20190516-69178-h7wx1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=288%2C625%2C2208%2C1036&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Decarbonizing maritime transportation will require a major shift towards alternative fuels. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>About 60,000 merchant ships sail the world’s oceans, including container ships, oil tankers and dry bulk carriers loaded with everything from grain to coal. Most operate on carbon-rich fuels such as heavy diesel, and their emissions have negative environmental impacts, are <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-urgency-of-curbing-pollution-from-ships-explained-94797">harmful to human health</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cargo-ships-are-emitting-boatloads-of-carbon-and-nobody-wants-to-take-the-blame-108731">contribute to global warming</a>. </p>
<p>Last year, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), a UN agency that is responsible for environmental impacts of ships, adopted ambitious targets to <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/250_IMO%20submission_Talanoa%20Dialogue_April%202018.pdf">reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from maritime shipping</a>. The IMO plan regulates carbon dioxide emissions from ships and requires shipping companies to halve their GHG emissions, based on 2008 levels by 2050.</p>
<p>Officials from the marine environmental protection committee of the IMO met in London this week to discuss the shipping sector’s contribution to climate change. Establishing resolutions to reaffirm existing commitments and frames of reference for a fourth IMO GHG study was high on the agenda. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.019">decarbonizing maritime transportation represents a major challenge</a> that will require <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2018.12.080">a revolutionary shift to alternative renewable fuels</a>.</p>
<h2>Demand for shipping expected to increase</h2>
<p>Shipping accounts for about <a href="https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Global-shipping-GHG-emissions-2013-2015_ICCT-Report_17102017_vF.pdf">three per cent of global GHG emissions</a>, producing roughly the same amount as Germany or Brazil do annually. Shipping emissions are not covered under the Paris climate agreement because they cannot be credited to any one nation. </p>
<p>Maritime shipping is far more efficient than shipping by truck, rail or air, and is responsible for moving more than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-805052-1.00030-9">80 per cent of traded goods (by weight) worth billions of dollars daily</a>. Demand for shipping is growing rapidly and could produce as much as 17 per cent of global emissions by 2050, if not mitigated. In order to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, shipping emissions need to be regulated.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-urgency-of-curbing-pollution-from-ships-explained-94797">The urgency of curbing pollution from ships, explained</a>
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<p>In addition to its long-term strategy to <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/GHG/Pages/default.aspx">cut GHG emissions by 50 per cent by 2050</a>, the ambitious IMO strategy includes <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/Pages/18-MEPCGHGprogramme.aspx">short- and mid-term measures</a>, although the details haven’t yet been decided. Short-term measures could be finalized and agreed to between 2018 and 2023; mid-term measures, between 2023 and 2030; and long-term measures to half GHG emissions, beyond 2030. The IMO’s ultimate goal is to completely decarbonize marine shipping. </p>
<h2>Slow-steaming not the way ahead</h2>
<p>The shipping industry is already struggling to adapt to the IMO goals. <a href="https://www.dnvgl.com/expert-story/maritime-impact/alternative-fuels.html">Low- or zero-carbon propulsion technologies are not widely available</a>. The rapidly approaching deadline for implementing short-term emissions reduction measures has led shipping companies to change the way ships are operated, such as by <a href="https://seas-at-risk.org/18-shipping/953-reduced-ship-speeds-make-economic-as-well-as-climate-sense.html">reducing ship speeds, also called “slow-steaming”</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275008/original/file-20190516-69192-93g4zy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275008/original/file-20190516-69192-93g4zy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275008/original/file-20190516-69192-93g4zy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275008/original/file-20190516-69192-93g4zy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275008/original/file-20190516-69192-93g4zy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275008/original/file-20190516-69192-93g4zy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275008/original/file-20190516-69192-93g4zy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A ship maneuvers out of port near Marseilles, France in 2007.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Roberto Venturini/wikipedia</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Slow-steaming is the most effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ships in the short-term, but it is hardly an <a href="https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/slow-steaming-hardly-emissions-silver-bullet_20190501.html">emissions silver bullet</a>. Slow-steaming significantly reduces fuel consumption, but the longer voyage times lead to higher operating costs, insurance and employment expenses that come with operating a greater number of ships at any given time. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1461059">Researchers have criticized the slow-steaming approach</a> because it is inconsistent with IMO’s ultimate emissions goals to completely decarbonize marine shipping </p>
<h2>Challenges with alternative fuels</h2>
<p>Currently, most of the global shipping fleet, about 60,000 vessels, relies on diesel — only 600 ships use alternative fuels. The sector clearly needs to accelerate adoption of low-carbon fuels. </p>
<p>Alternative low-carbon fuels include <a href="https://clearseas.org/en/lng">liquified natural gas (LNG)</a>, biofuels, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.11.023">batteries</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.021">wind</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.05.163">nuclear</a> and hydrogen fuel cell systems with zero emissions. A <a href="https://futurism.com/new-ship-rigid-solar-sails-harnesses-power-sun-wind-same-time">solar-powered ship</a> is currently under development.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-green-ships-from-sails-to-micro-bubbles-17508">Designing green ships, from sails to micro-bubbles</a>
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</p>
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<p>Unlike conventional fuels such as heavy fuel oil and diesel used in maritime shipping, <a href="https://clearseas.org/en/lng">LNG produces 15 per cent to 29 per cent less carbon dioxide</a>. It also produces less sulphur oxides, particulate matter and nitrogen oxide, which reduces air pollution and the threat to human health.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.lngworldnews.com/dnv-gl-keppel-to-promote-use-of-lng-as-ship-fuel/">By 2030, 10 per cent of the global shipping fleet will be powered by LNG</a>. However, switching to LNG combustion does not come without risks. The extraction, processing and transport of natural gas produces leaks and greenhouse gas emissions, and <a href="https://www.igu.org/sites/default/files/6%20-%20WFES%20Decarbonisation%20160117%20Marcel%20Kramer.pdf">LNG is carbon-based, making it a transitional fuel</a>.</p>
<p>Switching the rest of the global fleet to other low-carbon fuel alternatives will be <a href="https://doi.org/10.9774/GLEAF.2350.2016.de.00004">driven by market-based strategies</a>, such as taxes or levies on heavy fuel oil and diesel. However, there is still a long way to go to meet 2050 targets. </p>
<p>Emerging economies are also playing a role in reducing emissions in the maritime shipping industry. <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/china-controlling-port-air-emissions-report.pdf">China, for example, has implemented widespread onshore charging stations and will have 500 shore power units installed by 2020</a> to allow ships to turn off their engines and use local electricity to power refrigeration, lights and other equipment when docked. This is particularly effective at reducing greenhouse gas emissions when powered by renewables. The country has also launched local incentive programs to encourage the shipping industry to increase its use of renewables. </p>
<h2>Full steam ahead</h2>
<p>There is no one single silver bullet to help <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/250_IMO%20submission_Talanoa%20Dialogue_April%202018.pdf">reduce greenhouse gas emissions from maritime shipping</a>. Achieving IMO GHG emission reductions targets will require all stakeholders, including ship owners, ship builders, governments, industry and <a href="https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/Research_Centres/Centre_for_Transportation_Studies/Green_Shipping_-_Governance_and_Innovation_for_a_Sustainable_Maritime_Supply_Chain/People">researchers,</a> to help the maritime shipping industry transition into widespread use of multiple renewable-fuel technologies. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-the-shipping-industry-can-reduce-its-carbon-emissions-94883">Five ways the shipping industry can reduce its carbon emissions</a>
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<p>As the maritime shipping industry faces increasing challenges to reduce environmental impacts such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/quieter-ships-could-help-canadas-endangered-orcas-recover-107515">underwater noise</a>, <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.aar2402">ship-strikes on whales</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-805052-1.00030-9">ballast water and air pollution</a>, these IMO GHG emissions reduction targets will be one more regulatory hurdle to wrestle with. </p>
<p>Although 2050 is still 30 years away, the average operational life of a ship is roughly the same, so we still have a long way to go. We need to phase out existing fleets which would fail to meet 2050 IMOs standards and replace with new ships powered by low-carbon fuels as quickly as possible.</p>
<p>It may not be smooth sailing, but the maritime shipping sector needs to stay on course by accelerating adoption of low-carbon fuels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116949/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony Robert Walker receives funding from a Partnership Development Grant from the Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).</span></em></p>Shipping companies are expected to halve their greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.Tony Robert Walker, Assistant Professor, Dalhousie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1155572019-04-19T18:07:33Z2019-04-19T18:07:33ZTo solve climate change and biodiversity loss, we need a Global Deal for Nature<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270085/original/file-20190418-28097-1ua211e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An aerial photo of Borneo shows deforestation and patches of remaining forest.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Greg Asner</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Earth’s cornucopia of life has evolved over 550 million years. Along the way, five mass extinction events have caused serious setbacks to life on our planet. The fifth, which was caused by a gargantuan meteorite impact along Mexico’s Yucatan coast, changed Earth’s climate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-bad-news-for-dinosaurs-chicxulub-meteorite-impact-triggered-global-volcanic-eruptions-on-the-ocean-floor-91053">took out the dinosaurs</a> and altered the course of biological evolution.</p>
<p>Today nature is suffering accelerating losses so great that many scientists say <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction">a sixth mass extinction is underway</a>. Unlike past mass extinctions, this event is driven by human actions that are dismantling and disrupting natural ecosystems and changing Earth’s climate. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sPyLa9oAAAAJ&hl=en">My research</a> focuses on ecosystems and climate change from regional to global scales. In a new study titled “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2869">A Global Deal for Nature</a>,” led by conservation biologist and strategist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=IO_pazEAAAAJ&hl=en">Eric Dinerstein</a>, 17 colleagues and I lay out a road map for simultaneously averting a sixth mass extinction and reducing climate change. </p>
<p>We chart a course for immediately protecting at least 30% of Earth’s surface to put the brakes on rapid biodiversity loss, and then add another 20% comprising ecosystems that can suck disproportionately large amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere. In our view, biodiversity loss and climate change must be addressed as one interconnected problem with linked solutions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270128/original/file-20190419-191664-9fccxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270128/original/file-20190419-191664-9fccxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270128/original/file-20190419-191664-9fccxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270128/original/file-20190419-191664-9fccxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270128/original/file-20190419-191664-9fccxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270128/original/file-20190419-191664-9fccxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270128/original/file-20190419-191664-9fccxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270128/original/file-20190419-191664-9fccxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">International Union for the Conservation of Nature status ratings for assessed species (EW – extinct in the wild; CR – critically endangered; EN – endangered; VU – vulnerable; NT – near threatened; DD – data deficient; LC – least concern). Many species have not yet been assessed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/summary-statistics">IUCN</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Let’s make a deal</h2>
<p>Our Global Deal for Nature is based on a map of about a thousand “ecoregions” on land and sea, which we delineated based on an internationally growing body of research. Each of them contains a unique ensemble of species and ecosystems, and they play complementary roles in curbing climate change. </p>
<p>Natural ecosystems are like mutual funds in an otherwise volatile stock market. They contain self-regulating webs of organisms that interact. For example, tropical forests contain a kaleidoscope of tree species that are packed together, maximizing carbon storage in wood and soils. </p>
<p>Forests can weather natural disasters and catastrophic disease outbreaks because they are diverse portfolios of biological responses, self-managed by and among co-existing species. It’s hard to crash them if they are left alone to do their thing. </p>
<p>Man-made ecosystems are poor substitutes for their natural counterparts. For example, tree plantations are not forest ecosystems – they are crops of trees that <a href="http://dx.doi.org/%2010.1126/science.aam5962">store far less carbon than natural forests</a>, and require much more upkeep. Plantations are also ghost towns compared to the complex biodiversity found in natural forests.</p>
<p>Another important feature of natural ecosystems is that they are connected and influence one another. Consider coral reefs, which are central to the Global Deal for Nature because they store carbon and are hotspots for biodiversity. But that’s not their only value: They also protect coasts from storm surge, supporting inland mangroves and coastal grasslands that are mega-storage vaults for carbon and homes for large numbers of species. If one ecosystem is lost, risk to the others rises dramatically. Connectivity matters.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270151/original/file-20190419-28113-8jczhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270151/original/file-20190419-28113-8jczhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270151/original/file-20190419-28113-8jczhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270151/original/file-20190419-28113-8jczhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270151/original/file-20190419-28113-8jczhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270151/original/file-20190419-28113-8jczhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/270151/original/file-20190419-28113-8jczhu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reef-scale coral bleaching in the Hawaiian Islands, 2016. Warming oceans are causing repeated coral bleaching events, threatening reefs worldwide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Greg Asner</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The idea of conserving large swaths of the planet to preserve biodiversity is not new. Many distinguished experts have endorsed the idea of <a href="https://books.wwnorton.com/books/Half-Earth/">setting aside half the surface of the Earth</a> to protect biodiversity. The Global Deal for Nature greatly advances this idea by specifying the amounts, places and types of protections needed to get this effort moving in the right direction. </p>
<h2>Building on the Paris Agreement</h2>
<p>We designed our study to serve as guidance that governments can use in a planning process, similar to the climate change negotiations that led to the 2015 Paris Agreement. The Paris accord, which <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/status-of-ratification">197 nations have signed</a>, sets global targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, provides a model for financial assistance to low-income countries and supports local and grassroots efforts worldwide. </p>
<p>But the Paris Agreement does not safeguard the diversity of life on Earth. Without a companion plan, we will lose the wealth of species that have taken millions of years to evolve and accumulate.</p>
<p>In fact, my colleagues and I believe the Paris Agreement cannot be met without simultaneously saving biodiversity. Here’s why: The most logical and cost-effective way to curb greenhouse gas emissions and remove gases from the atmosphere is by <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/forests-provide-critical-short-term-solution-climate-change">storing carbon in natural ecosystems</a>.</p>
<p>Forests, grasslands, peatlands, mangroves and a few other types of ecosystems pull the most carbon from the air per acre of land. Protecting and expanding their range is far more scalable and far less expensive than engineering the climate to slow the pace of warming. And there is no time to lose.</p>
<h2>Worth the cost</h2>
<p>What would it take to put a Global Deal for Nature into action? Land and marine protection costs money: Our plan would require a budget of some US$100 billion per year. This may sound like a lot, but for comparison, Silicon Valley companies earned <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/16/apples-app-store-revenue-nearly-double-that-of-google-play-in-first-half-of-2018/">nearly $60 billion in 2017 just from selling apps</a>. And the distributed cost is well within international reach. Today, however, our global society is spending less than a tenth of that amount to save Earth’s biodiversity. </p>
<p>Nations will also need new technology to assess and monitor progress and put biodiversity-saving actions to the test. Some ingredients needed for a global biodiversity monitoring system are now deployed, such as <a href="https://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/2017-2027-decadal-survey-for-earth-science-and-applications-from-space/">basic satellites</a> that describe the general locations of forests and reefs. Others are only up and running at regional scales, such as <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/3/18166769/ai-cameras-conservation-africa-resolve-intel-elephants-serengeti">on-the-ground tracking systems</a> to detect animals and the people who poach them, and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aaj1987">airborne biodiversity and carbon mapping technologies</a>.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9bbuohIvE8U?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">AsnerLab’s airborne observatory is mapping and monitoring species and carbon storage to bring the problems of biodiversity loss and climate change into focus.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But key components are still missing at the global scale, including technology that can analyze target ecosystems and species from Earth orbit, on high-flying aircraft and in the field to generate real-time knowledge about the changing state of life on our planet. The good news is that <a href="https://blog.ted.com/nature-revealed-biodiversity-in-3d-greg-asner-at-tedglobal-2013/">this type of technology exists</a>, and could be rapidly scaled up to create the first-ever global nature monitoring program. </p>
<p>Technology is the easier part of the challenge. Organizing human cooperation toward such a broad goal is much harder. But we believe the value of Earth’s biodiversity is far higher than the cost and effort needed to save it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115557/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Greg Asner receives funding from the Avatar Alliance Foundation, Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation, MacArthur Foundation, Morgan Family Foundation, Packard Foundation, and visionary individual donors.</span></em></p>A new study lays out a road map for protecting and restoring 50% of Earth’s surface, targeted to preserve biodiversity and maximize natural removal of carbon from the atmosphere.Greg Asner, Director, Center for Global Discovery and Conservation Science and Professor, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1088722019-04-17T10:54:24Z2019-04-17T10:54:24ZSea creatures store carbon in the ocean – could protecting them help slow climate change?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269377/original/file-20190415-147502-15sm3nq.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A sperm whale goes down for a dive off Kaikoura, New Zealand. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Heidi Pearson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the prospect of catastrophic effects from climate change becomes increasingly likely, a search is on for innovative ways to reduce the risks. One potentially powerful and low-cost strategy is to recognize and protect natural carbon sinks – places and processes that store carbon, keeping it out of Earth’s atmosphere.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/forests-gain-long-awaited-recognition-in-paris-climate-summit-52238">Forests</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-world-needs-now-to-fight-climate-change-more-swamps-99198">wetlands</a> can capture and store large quantities of carbon. These ecosystems are included in climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies that <a href="https://climatefocus.com/sites/default/files/20181203_Article%206%20and%20Coastal%20Blue%20Carbon.pdf">28 countries have pledged to adopt to fulfill the Paris Climate Agreement</a>. So far, however, no such policy has been created to protect carbon storage in the ocean, which is Earth’s largest carbon sink and a central element of our planet’s climate cycle. </p>
<p>As a marine biologist, my research focuses on <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hsiWIEEAAAAJ&hl=en">marine mammal behavior, ecology and conservation</a>. Now I also am studying how climate change is affecting marine mammals – and how marine life could become part of the solution. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269395/original/file-20190415-147487-1g3qy2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269395/original/file-20190415-147487-1g3qy2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269395/original/file-20190415-147487-1g3qy2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269395/original/file-20190415-147487-1g3qy2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269395/original/file-20190415-147487-1g3qy2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269395/original/file-20190415-147487-1g3qy2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269395/original/file-20190415-147487-1g3qy2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269395/original/file-20190415-147487-1g3qy2d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sea otter rests in a kelp forest off California. By feeding on sea urchins, which eat kelp, otters help kelp forests spread and store carbon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nicole LaRoche</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is marine vertebrate carbon?</h2>
<p>Marine animals can sequester carbon through a range of natural processes that include storing carbon in their bodies, excreting carbon-rich waste products that sink into the deep sea, and fertilizing or protecting marine plants. In particular, scientists are beginning to recognize that vertebrates, such as fish, seabirds and marine mammals, have the potential to help lock away carbon from the atmosphere. </p>
<p>I am currently working with colleagues at <a href="http://www.grida.no/activities/193">UN Environment/GRID-Arendal</a>, a United Nations Environment Programme center in Norway, to identify mechanisms through which marine vertebrates’ natural biological processes may be able to help mitigate climate change. So far we have found <a href="http://grid-arendal.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/index.html?appid=05f6dc47c20a41d8a0df68c0c99cc2f2">at least nine examples</a>.</p>
<p>One of my favorites is Trophic Cascade Carbon. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/trophic-cascade">Trophic cascades</a> occur when change at the top of a food chain causes downstream changes to the rest of the chain. As an example, sea otters are top predators in the North Pacific, feeding on sea urchins. In turn, sea urchins eat kelp, a brown seaweed that grows on rocky reefs near shore. Importantly, kelp stores carbon. Increasing the number of sea otters reduces sea urchin populations, which <a href="http://max2.ese.u-psud.fr/epc/conservation/PDFs/HIPE/Estes1995.pdf">allows kelp forests to grow</a> and trap more carbon. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269397/original/file-20190415-147525-1bfmv5r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269397/original/file-20190415-147525-1bfmv5r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269397/original/file-20190415-147525-1bfmv5r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269397/original/file-20190415-147525-1bfmv5r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269397/original/file-20190415-147525-1bfmv5r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269397/original/file-20190415-147525-1bfmv5r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269397/original/file-20190415-147525-1bfmv5r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269397/original/file-20190415-147525-1bfmv5r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Scientists have identified nine mechanisms through which marine vertebrates play roles in the oceanic carbon cycle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.grida.no/resources/12674">GRID Arendal</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Carbon stored in living organisms is called Biomass Carbon, and is found in all marine vertebrates. Large animals such as whales, which may weigh up to 50 tons and live for over 200 years, can store large quantities of carbon for long periods of time. </p>
<p>When they die, their carcasses sink to the seafloor, bringing a lifetime of trapped carbon with them. This is called Deadfall Carbon. On the deep seafloor, it can be eventually buried in sediments and potentially locked away from the atmosphere for millions of years.</p>
<p>Whales can also help to trap carbon by stimulating production of tiny marine plants called phytoplankton, which use sunlight and carbon dioxide to make plant tissue just like plants on land. The whales feed at depth, then release buoyant, nutrient-rich fecal plumes while resting at the surface, which can fertilize phytoplankton in a process that marine scientists call the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0013255">Whale Pump</a>. </p>
<p>And whales redistribute nutrients geographically, in a sequence we refer to as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/130220">Great Whale Conveyor Belt</a>. They take in nutrients while feeding at high latitudes then release these nutrients while fasting on low-latitude breeding grounds, which are typically nutrient-poor. Influxes of nutrients from whale waste products such as urea can help to stimulate phytoplankton growth.</p>
<p>Finally, whales can bring nutrients to phytoplankton simply by swimming throughout the water column and mixing nutrients towards the surface, an effect researchers term <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-9-8387-2012">Biomixing Carbon</a>.</p>
<p>Fish poo also plays a role in trapping carbon. Some fish migrate up and down through the water column each day, swimming toward the surface to feed at night and descending to deeper waters by day. Here they release carbon-rich fecal pellets that can sink rapidly. This is called Twilight Zone Carbon. </p>
<p>These fish may descend to depths of 1,000 feet or more, and their fecal pellets can sink even farther. Twilight Zone Carbon can potentially be locked away for tens to hundreds of years because it takes a long time for water at these depths to recirculate back towards the surface. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Marine snow’ is made up of fecal pellets and other bits of organic material that sink into deep ocean waters, carrying large quantities of carbon into the depths.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Quantifying marine vertebrate carbon</h2>
<p>To treat “blue carbon” associated with marine vertebrates as a carbon sink, scientists need to measure it. One of the first studies in this field, published in 2010, described the Whale Pump in the Southern Ocean, estimating that a historic pre-whaling population of 120,000 sperm whales could have trapped <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.0863">2.2 million tons of carbon yearly through whale poo</a>. </p>
<p>Another 2010 study calculated that the global pre-whaling population of approximately 2.5 million great whales would have exported <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0012444">nearly 210,000 tons of carbon per year to the deep sea through Deadfall Carbon</a>. That’s equivalent to <a href="https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator">taking roughly 150,000 cars off the road each year</a>. </p>
<p>A 2012 study found that by eating sea urchins, sea otters could potentially help to trap <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/110176">150,000 to 22 million tons of carbon per year</a> in kelp forests. Even more strikingly, a 2013 study described the potential for lanternfish and other Twilight Zone fish off the western U.S. coast to store <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2013.05.013">over 30 million tons of carbon per year in their fecal pellets</a>. </p>
<p>Scientific understanding of marine vertebrate carbon is still in its infancy. Most of the carbon-trapping mechanisms that we have identified are based on limited studies, and can be refined with further research. So far, researchers have examined the carbon-trapping abilities of less than 1% of all marine vertebrate species. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269400/original/file-20190415-147483-1o7d30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269400/original/file-20190415-147483-1o7d30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269400/original/file-20190415-147483-1o7d30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269400/original/file-20190415-147483-1o7d30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269400/original/file-20190415-147483-1o7d30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269400/original/file-20190415-147483-1o7d30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269400/original/file-20190415-147483-1o7d30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269400/original/file-20190415-147483-1o7d30r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The brownish water at the base of this humpback whale’s fluke is a fecal plume, which can fertilize phytoplankton near the surface. Photo taken under NMFS permit 10018-01.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Heidi Pearson</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>A new basis for marine conservation</h2>
<p>Many governments and organizations around the world are working to rebuild global fish stocks, prevent bycatch and illegal fishing, reduce pollution and establish marine protected areas. If we can recognize the value of marine vertebrate carbon, many of these policies could qualify as climate change mitigation strategies. </p>
<p>In a step in this direction, the International Whaling Commission passed two resolutions in 2018 that recognized <a href="https://news.grida.no/international-endorsement-of-whale-carbon">whales’ value for carbon storage</a>. As science advances in this field, protecting marine vertebrate carbon stocks ultimately might become part of national pledges to fulfill the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>Marine vertebrates are valuable for many reasons, from maintaining healthy ecosystems to providing us with a sense of awe and wonder. Protecting them will help ensure that the ocean can continue to provide humans with food, oxygen, recreation and natural beauty, as well as carbon storage. </p>
<p><em>Steven Lutz, Blue Carbon Programme leader at GRID-Arendal, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108872/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heidi Pearson received funding from the US-Norway Fulbright Foundation for Educational Exchange to support the research and writing of this article. </span></em></p>Protecting forests and wetlands, which absorb and store carbon, is one way to slow climate change. Scientists are proposing similar treatment for marine animals that help store carbon in the oceans.Heidi Pearson, Associate Professor of Marine Biology, University of Alaska SoutheastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1084572018-12-19T11:43:52Z2018-12-19T11:43:52ZAn Indian perspective on the Poland climate meeting: Not much help for the world’s poor and vulnerable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251322/original/file-20181218-27770-1ao50vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bamboo structures on the Brahmaputra river in Majuli, northeastern India, intended to help prevent land erosion in a region experiencing erratic weather patterns and bursts of intense rainfall. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/India-Shrinking-Island-Photo-Gallery/1c3714bd7fd743668b4de9f5867789b5/7/0">AP Photo/Anupam Nath</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The international climate change conference that concluded in Katowice, Poland on Dec. 15 had limited ambitions and expectations – especially compared to the 2015 meeting that produced the <a href="https://theconversation.com/thanks-to-paris-we-have-a-foundation-for-meaningful-climate-progress-52525">Paris climate agreement</a>. It will be remembered mainly for its delegates <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-economists-take-on-the-poland-climate-conference-the-glass-is-more-than-half-full-108915">agreeing on a common “rulebook”</a> to implement existing country commitments for reducing emissions.</p>
<p>The deal is vital. It keeps the new global climate regime alive. It maintains a path to deliver financial and technical assistance to vulnerable countries and peoples. Actors with quite divergent interests, including the United States, the European Union, oil producing states, China, India and small island nations all accepted a common approach to measuring progress.</p>
<p>But from my perspective as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=eiBDprgAAAAJ&hl=en">social scientist focusing on conservation and international development</a>, the technical orientation of the Katowice meeting failed to match the urgency of needed climate action. Negotiators made little progress toward deeper emissions cuts. Nor did the meeting do much to help the most vulnerable people, ecosystems and nations. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Low-cost strategies can protect India’s most vulnerable from climate change impacts such as heat waves.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rapid progress is needed</h2>
<p>Delegates in Poland were simply unprepared to work toward the radical structural transformations for which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change called in its <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">special report</a> in October 2018 on the implications of failing to hold global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.</p>
<p>This report showed the enormous risks if average global temperatures exceed preindustrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees C. Unless the global community brings runaway emissions under control within 12 years, it will be too late to hold temperature increases within that range. </p>
<p>Such an undertaking requires countries, businesses and households to shift away from existing energy and transportation systems. New land use practices and diets that reduce emissions are necessary. Changes in basic social dynamics on this scale are unprecedented in human history except during times of war. </p>
<p>Four oil-exporting countries – Kuwait, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States – prevented the delegates in Poland from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46496967">officially welcoming the IPCC report</a>. Many critics viewed this action as <a href="http://news.trust.org/item/20181217110553-tyg87/?source=leadCarousel">downplaying the report’s urgency</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251334/original/file-20181218-27779-1yszrt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251334/original/file-20181218-27779-1yszrt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251334/original/file-20181218-27779-1yszrt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251334/original/file-20181218-27779-1yszrt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251334/original/file-20181218-27779-1yszrt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251334/original/file-20181218-27779-1yszrt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251334/original/file-20181218-27779-1yszrt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251334/original/file-20181218-27779-1yszrt0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2015, India had the world’s third-largest economy, second-largest population and fourth-highest level of energy consumption. Currently it is projected to become the most populous country in the world by about 2025.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/india/?src=-b1">EIA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>India’s pivotal role</h2>
<p>India’s <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-among-highest-greenhouse-gas-emitters-in-2016-big-coal-consumer/story-juJex1dknBvLxmQ275YN0K.html">high and rising greenhouse gas emissions</a>, and the fact that some 600 million of its poorest and most vulnerable people depend on agriculture, make it a particularly important player in climate negotiations.</p>
<p>To keep global emissions under control, it is critical that India take meaningful and decisive actions. Bold action is also necessary to make Indian households more resilient against climate change.</p>
<p>India’s emissions have grown rapidly since 2000. It currently emits about 2.5 gigatons of <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=285">carbon dioxide equivalent</a> annually, making it the world’s third largest emitter, <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/6-graphs-explain-world-s-top-10-emitters">after China – which produces about 9.5 gigatons yearly – and the United States at 5 gigatons</a> Admittedly, India ranks far lower in terms of its per capita emissions, which place it <a href="https://knoema.com/atlas/ranks/CO2-emissions-per-capita?baseRegion=IN">105th in the world</a>. </p>
<p>More than two-thirds of India’s emissions are from the energy sector. Of that amount, more than 75 percent can be attributed to electricity generation.</p>
<p>India’s energy mix is set to improve. It is <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-slow-climate-change-india-joins-the-renewable-energy-revolution-78321">increasing reliance on renewables</a>; it has placed a moratorium on the <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/12/16/india-to-halt-building-new-coal-plants-in-2022/">construction of new coal-fired power plants</a>; and, it is attempting <a href="https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/energy-speak/how-india-is-leading-the-energy-efficiency-revolution/2423">to improve energy use efficiency</a>. </p>
<p>But without far more aggressive action, its aggregate emissions will continue to rise. This is because India needs to meet the energy needs of a growing and increasingly wealthier population. Also, over time, more Indians will gain access to energy from utilities rather than using cookstoves and open hearths. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251335/original/file-20181218-27746-10f8mzd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251335/original/file-20181218-27746-10f8mzd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251335/original/file-20181218-27746-10f8mzd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251335/original/file-20181218-27746-10f8mzd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251335/original/file-20181218-27746-10f8mzd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251335/original/file-20181218-27746-10f8mzd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251335/original/file-20181218-27746-10f8mzd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251335/original/file-20181218-27746-10f8mzd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In its intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) under the 2015 Paris climate accord, India promises a 33 to 35 percent reduction in emissions intensity by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. But its growing economy means that total emissions will still rise.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/indias-indc">Carbon Brief</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Aid questions unresolved</h2>
<p>In its official statement on the COP24 agreement, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-says-katowice-climate-talks-positive-green-group-disagrees-118121600371_1.html">India praised the outcome as positive</a>. During the meeting, delegates recognized India’s progress in meeting its commitments to reduce emissions. Renewable sources are projected to account for 40 percent of its installed electrical energy capacity by 2027, and could reach <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/21/india-renewable-energy-paris-climate-summit-target">60 percent of installed capacity by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>But on at least two counts the negotiations did not meet India’s goals. First, the 2015 Paris Agreement recognized the principle of “Common but Differentiated Responsibility and Respective Capacities.” This principle highlights the historical injustice of climate emissions and inequitable use of the global atmospheric commons. It aims for richer nations to make larger emissions cuts. </p>
<p>At Katowice, as one official from India’s Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change <a href="https://qz.com/india/1497459/the-katowice-cop24-climate-summit-was-a-mixed-bag-for-india/">noted</a>, India was the key country to raise this principle and the continued need to recognize it. But rich countries blocked its recognition in the Rulebook that conferees adopted.</p>
<p>Just as importantly, rich countries prevented advances on how to estimate financial contributions to support adaptation by vulnerable countries. Poor countries would like estimates of climate finance to be additional to current development aid. They also want climate finance to be viewed more as a response to the loss and damage suffered by poor countries rather than as aid. Absent these principles, existing foreign aid flows could easily be reclassified as a contribution to climate finance, leaving aggregate levels of support unchanged.</p>
<p>The Katowice agreement, however, sidesteps these concerns about climate finance by not addressing them officially in the final agreement. The one positive from the meeting is that rich country negotiators agreed to revisit the issue of <a href="https://qz.com/india/1497459/the-katowice-cop24-climate-summit-was-a-mixed-bag-for-india/">scaling up financial contributions in 2025</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1069335422310985728"}"></div></p>
<h2>People are vulnerable now</h2>
<p>The Indian government’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions means very little for much of the country’s population that lives in grinding poverty. More than 600 million Indians need meaningful and decisive national action for adaptation. They also need international financial support and technology transfer commitments. Such support will help them adapt to the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/06/19/india-climate-change-impacts">rising climate threats</a> of hurricanes, floods, droughts and heat waves.</p>
<p>National actions and international support are necessary to help poor and vulnerable Indian households make their current livelihood strategies less climate sensitive. They can enable adults and children to learn climate-resilient skills, including artisanal production, small-scale processing and employment in the service sector.</p>
<p>In extreme cases, such interventions would support migration to new places less exposed to climate threats. Vulnerable households need programs and policies that make their lives more resilient. Those who have recently escaped the clutches of poverty need action so that they do not slide back.</p>
<p>International negotiators and India’s business and political leaders need to come up with measures that can help the poor and the vulnerable now. Households throughout the lower-income world, not just in India, need supportive efforts today. Waiting for 12 more years to launch programs for enhanced resilience will be too late for many of them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108457/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arun Agrawal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change is a serious threat now for poor people in developing countries, but the COP24 conference in Poland offered them little hope of near-term emissions cuts or economic aid.Arun Agrawal, Professor of Natural Resources & Environment, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1089152018-12-18T11:49:40Z2018-12-18T11:49:40ZAn economist’s take on the Poland climate conference: The glass is more than half full<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251094/original/file-20181217-185249-gw3r7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Heads of delegations react at the end of the final session of the COP24 summit on climate change in Katowice, Poland, Saturday, Dec. 15, 2018.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Poland-Climate/15b0e63115f241dba55666cf9ee8433f/14/0">AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The global climate change <a href="https://unfccc.int/katowice">conference in Katowice, Poland</a>, that wrapped up on Dec. 15 had a challenging mission. Three years ago in Paris, 196 countries and regions agreed to <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">curb global greenhouse gas emissions</a> Now they had to agree on rules and guidelines for how to do it. </p>
<p>Two urgent realities hung over the negotiations. First, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in June 2017 that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement in November 2020 – the soonest that any nation can actually do so. Second, although countries that are responsible for 97 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions have pledged to make cuts, the initial reductions <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-next-two-years-are-critical-for-the-paris-climate-deals-survival-107931">will surely not be enough</a> to keep global warming below two degrees Celsius. So, a key question is how the Paris Agreement can facilitate increased ambition over time.</p>
<p>Delegates in Poland wanted to make progress by filling in details of the skeletal Paris Agreement. Was the meeting a success? A simple yes or no would be misleading. But from my perspective leading a delegation from the <a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/project/harvard-project-climate-agreements#about">Harvard Project on Climate Agreements</a> at the conference, there were were significant gains in two key areas. </p>
<p>Nations agreed on uniform rules for measuring and reporting their own performance in cutting emissions. There also were intensive discussions of how to connect reduction efforts across regions, nations and sub-national areas, which offers many economic and other benefits. Even though the latter issue was not resolved in Katowice, I see the final agreement as a glass that is more than half full. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251121/original/file-20181217-27752-1v8ihi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251121/original/file-20181217-27752-1v8ihi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251121/original/file-20181217-27752-1v8ihi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251121/original/file-20181217-27752-1v8ihi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251121/original/file-20181217-27752-1v8ihi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251121/original/file-20181217-27752-1v8ihi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251121/original/file-20181217-27752-1v8ihi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251121/original/file-20181217-27752-1v8ihi8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>One set of counting rules</h2>
<p>As I wrote in 2015 when it was signed, the Paris Agreement was <a href="https://theconversation.com/thanks-to-paris-we-have-a-foundation-for-meaningful-climate-progress-52525">a major milestone</a>. In it, 195 countries plus the European Union – accounting for 97 percent of global emissions – pledged to develop national targets and action plans for reducing their emissions. They also agreed to revise these contributions every five years, with an eye to ratcheting up their goals over time. In contrast, the predecessor international agreement, the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-kyoto-protocol/what-is-the-kyoto-protocol/what-is-the-kyoto-protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a>, covered only 14 percent of global emissions.</p>
<p>But the Paris Agreement gave 154 developing countries significant wiggle room by granting them flexibility in determining how they would measure their emissions and track progress toward their national targets. For developing countries, this was important. Some lacked the capacity to accurately monitor their emissions, and others resisted being treated with the same rigor as industrialized countries. In their view this was unfair, since developed nations’ emissions were responsible for most of the warming that had occurred to date.</p>
<p>But now this has changed, thanks partly to close collaboration in Poland between the U.S. and Chinese delegations. These delegates worked closely to foster a remarkable consensus that all countries must follow uniform standards for measuring emissions and tracking the achievement of their national targets. </p>
<p>This was a significant accomplishment, and a major step toward a level playing field among nations. Such uniform treatment is essential for addressing the threat of climate change, because increases in emissions are mainly coming from the large emerging economies: China, India, Brazil, Korea, South Africa, Mexico and Indonesia.</p>
<p>Conceivably, this equal treatment could make it easier for the United States to remain in the Paris Agreement if President Trump should become convinced that such action would be politically advantageous in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election. It also will create a path for a future Democratic or Republican administration to rejoin the Paris Agreement if Trump follows through on his promise to withdraw. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251103/original/file-20181217-185249-1w19tkg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251103/original/file-20181217-185249-1w19tkg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251103/original/file-20181217-185249-1w19tkg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251103/original/file-20181217-185249-1w19tkg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251103/original/file-20181217-185249-1w19tkg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251103/original/file-20181217-185249-1w19tkg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251103/original/file-20181217-185249-1w19tkg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251103/original/file-20181217-185249-1w19tkg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wealthy nations account for most of the world’s cumulative carbon dioxide emissions since 1751, but large developing nations are becoming increasingly important sources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions">OurWorldinData.org</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Linking policies across borders</h2>
<p>A second key question was how the Paris Agreement itself, as it was fleshed out, could enable and indeed facilitate more ambitious emissions cuts over time. One strategy is linking regional, national and sub-national climate change policies, so that emissions reductions in one jurisdiction can count toward another jurisdiction’s commitments. </p>
<p>This strategy often is characterized, somewhat inaccurately, as “carbon markets,” but it is broader than that. It could involve countries exchanging credits for their emissions reductions due to use of carbon taxes, <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-cap-and-trade-systems-offer-evidence-that-carbon-pricing-can-work-101428">cap-and-trade systems</a> or conventional performance standards, such as requiring power plants to emit no more than a certain amount of carbon dioxide per unit of electricity generation.</p>
<p>The existing linkage between cap-and-trade systems in <a href="https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/capandtrade.htm">California</a> and <a href="http://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/changements/carbone/Systeme-plafonnement-droits-GES-en.htm">Quebec</a> is one example of such a connection. Under that link, firms in California can exchange emissions allowances with firms in Quebec and vice versa. </p>
<p>This approach can provide many benefits. It saves money because firms can take advantage of lower-cost opportunities to reduce emissions in other locations. And it improves operation of markets for carbon reductions by reducing the market power of dominant firms and the likelihood of price spikes. States, countries and regions can also benefit politically from working together. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251104/original/file-20181217-181905-arvtl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251104/original/file-20181217-181905-arvtl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/251104/original/file-20181217-181905-arvtl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251104/original/file-20181217-181905-arvtl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251104/original/file-20181217-181905-arvtl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=654&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251104/original/file-20181217-181905-arvtl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251104/original/file-20181217-181905-arvtl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/251104/original/file-20181217-181905-arvtl6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=822&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A month after climate change skeptic Jair Bolsonaro was elected president, Brazil reversed its plans to host the next UN climate conference in 2019. The meeting now will take place in Santiago, Chile.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Federal_Deputy_Jair_Bolsonaro_at_the_Brazilian_Chamber_of_Deputies.jpg">Agência Brasil Fotografias/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most importantly, linkage satisfies a key criterion of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>, that nations have “common but differentiated responsibilities” for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, with wealthy countries having greater responsibility for the accumulated stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Linking reduction policies means that nations can have very different ambitions in their national contributions to global efforts without sacrificing overall cost-effectiveness.</p>
<p>These strategies are likely to include very different types of national policies. As I have shown in work with <a href="https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=Z56g32UAAAAJ&hl=en">Michael Mehling</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BiKL7ikAAAAJ&hl=en">Gilbert Metcalf</a>, linking such diverse policies <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aar5988">is not simple</a>, but in many cases is feasible. </p>
<p>Delegates in Poland sought to write guidelines for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which guides such international cooperation. However, they were not able to reach agreement, due to objections from a single country – Brazil – and hence the issue was punted to the next conference, which will be held next year in Santiago, Chile. </p>
<p>This may not represent a failure, because linkages and exchanges under the Paris agreement can, in principle, proceed in the meantime. But without knowing what some potential future guidance and rules might bring, governments may hesitate to pursue bilateral linkages.</p>
<p>Ultimately, success or failure of the Paris Agreement will depend upon national actions. And for that, it remains too soon to observe or even to predict the long-term outcome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Stavins receives funding from the Enel Foundation. He is a Member of the Board of Directors of Resources for the Future. </span></em></p>An economist breaks down results on two key issues at the COP24 climate change meeting: getting all nations to use the same measuring and reporting rules, and linking policies across borders.Robert Stavins, Professor of Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1079972018-12-03T17:10:25Z2018-12-03T17:10:25ZCOP24: 12 years from disaster – editors’ guide to what our academic experts say is needed to fight climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248518/original/file-20181203-194932-1qzcrbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C11%2C3161%2C2023&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NicoElNino / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>World leaders are gathering in Katowice, Poland, to negotiate the world’s response to climate change. The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP24) will last from December 3-14 and its primary aim is to reach agreement on how the Paris Agreement of 2015 will be implemented. In a year which saw <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-made-2018-european-heatwave-up-to-five-times-more-likely">record weather extremes</a> and an extraordinary announcement from the UN that we have only <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report">12 years to limit catastrophe</a>, the need for meaningful progress has never been greater.</p>
<p>To explain how the COP works and what it means for the fight against climate change, we asked our academic experts to share their views.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248523/original/file-20181203-194956-1g68r2c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">COP24 venue Spodek arena in Katowice, Poland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/katowice-poland-oct-11-2018-spodek-1206686257?src=bBw2o45yM6xX7_nQgzbvXQ-1-0">Milosz Maslanka/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What will COP24 address?</h2>
<blockquote>
<p><em>The urgency to reach key milestones in the Paris Agreement and deal with climate change puts a lot of high expectations on COP24 – <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-heres-what-to-expect-107862">Federica Genovese, lecturer in government, University of Essex</a>.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li><p>Rulebook: this is the conference’s main goal – to establish consensus on how nations should implement the Paris Agreement and report their progress.</p></li>
<li><p>Emissions targets: COP24 is expected to resolve how emissions will be regulated, although it’s unlikely that sanctions for countries failing to meet their targets will be agreed on.</p></li>
<li><p>Finance: the rich countries need to find <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cbce4e2e-ee5b-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0">US$20 billion</a> to fulfil their pledge of providing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/09/world/asia/green-climate-fund-global-warming.html">US$100 billion a year</a> in funding to help poorer countries adapt to climate change by 2020. Agreeing when this will be paid is likely to be contentious. </p></li>
<li><p>Role of “big” states: the international political climate casts a long shadow over the talks. Domestic politics in <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-decision-to-quit-the-paris-agreement-may-be-his-worst-business-deal-yet-78780">the US</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-britain-has-taken-its-eye-off-the-paris-agreement-on-climate-change-103783">the UK</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-cold-war-climate-change-has-ignited-a-new-polar-power-struggle-107329">Russia</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/jair-bolsonaros-brazil-would-be-a-disaster-for-the-amazon-and-global-climate-change-104617">Brazil</a> threaten to undermine climate change leadership among larger emitters at COP24. </p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>How did we get here?</strong></p>
<p>1997: Creation of Kyoto Protocol, which set binding emissions targets. It failed as the US did not ratify it.</p>
<p>2009: COP15 in Copenhagen failed to yield any agreement on binding commitments.</p>
<p>2013: COP19 in Warsaw failed to finalise any binding treaty.</p>
<p>2015: COP21 in Paris generated considerable optimism with agreement reached on a legally binding action plan. But two years later, US president Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement.</p>
<h2>Where are we on the road to catastrophic climate change?</h2>
<blockquote>
<p><em>We aren’t facing the end of the world as envisaged by many environmentalists in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but if we do nothing to mitigate climate change then billions of people will suffer – <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-scientists-know-climate-change-is-happening-51421">Mark Maslin, professor of Earth system science, University College London</a></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The world’s poorest and most vulnerable people are most at risk from the effects of climate change, with many having to migrate from sea level rise, crop failure and pollution. Sahia – <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-migration-in-bangladesh-one-womans-perspective-107131">a woman from Bangladesh</a> – lost her home and her family’s livelihood.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/u75qiLAKVX8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">“My life has become a living hell” – Sahia. (by Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, senior researcher, Sussex University)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As global temperatures near 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the limit set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, scientists are increasingly anxious about how changes in the environment could work to accelerate the pace at which the rest of Earth is warming. </p>
<p>The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet and strange recent events here, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-arctic-is-turning-brown-because-of-weird-weather-and-it-could-accelerate-climate-change-107590">heathland turning brown</a>, could be a sign that previous natural stores of carbon are no longer working properly. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248456/original/file-20181203-194928-1a9806r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Black, observed temperatures; blue, probable range from decadal forecasts; red, retrospective forecasts; green, climate simulations of the 20th century. Global temperatures are fast approaching the 1.5°C limit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/decadal-forecast-2018">The Met Office</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Methane released from Arctic permafrost and other rapid changes could take the matter of limiting greenhouse gas emissions out of our hands in the near future. A paper published in 2018 warned that runaway climate change could lead the planet into a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/hothouse-earth-heres-what-the-science-actually-does-and-doesnt-say-101341">Hothouse Earth</a>” state:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>A chain of self-reinforcing changes might potentially be initiated, eventually leading to very large climate warming and sea level rise – <a href="https://theconversation.com/hothouse-earth-heres-what-the-science-actually-does-and-doesnt-say-101341">Richard Betts, professor of climatology, University of Exeter</a></em> </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248446/original/file-20181203-194925-m0oej9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global map of potential tipping cascades, with arrows showing potential interactions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/07/31/1810141115.full.pdf">Steffen et al/PNAS</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What does the science demand we do to tackle climate change?</h2>
<p>Whatever is agreed at COP24 will be what is politically possible,
but experts urge us to bear in mind <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-heres-what-must-be-agreed-to-keep-warming-at-1-5-c-107968">what the science demands</a> to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and keeping global warming below or at 1.5°C.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>We’re failing to cut down our emissions, the technologies for NETs [Negative Emissions Technologies] don’t exist at any meaningful scale yet, and there are no political drivers in place to enforce their deployment. There is also a real risk of a dramatic rise in methane in the near future. COP24 will have to consider emergency plans – <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-heres-what-must-be-agreed-to-keep-warming-at-1-5-c-107968">Hugh Hunt, reader in engineering, University of Cambridge.</a></em></p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248276/original/file-20181202-194922-vzdpk6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=557&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C requires mitigation (energy efficiency and renewable generation) and CO₂ removal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/negativeemissions.html">MCC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A more radical approach at COP24 could highlight the ample opportunity there is for slowing climate change by restoring habitats. For many countries, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-rewilding-is-essential-to-the-uks-commitments-on-climate-change-107541https://theconversation.com/cop24-rewilding-is-essential-to-the-uks-commitments-on-climate-change-107541">reforestation</a> is a more immediate way to slash emissions and make society happier and healthier in the process.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248280/original/file-20181202-194941-17lkyum.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forest cover in England has fallen sharply over the last 1,000 years. Fighting climate change presents an urgent opportunity for reforestation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DEFRA</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, while the climate has changed radically since global warming was first declared a man-made phenomenon <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">30 years ago</a>, international efforts to tackle it haven’t. Many experts argue that the involvement of commercial interests at COP24 limits what is possible for mitigating climate change.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>Ten years after the financial crisis, COP24 should not legitimise large financial investors as the architects of a transition where sustainability rhymes with profitability – <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-ten-years-on-from-lehman-brothers-we-cant-trust-finance-with-the-planet-107780">Tomaso Ferrando, lecturer in law, University of Bristol</a></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Representatives from pension funds, asset managers and large banks will be lobbying world leaders to favour investments in infrastructure and energy production as part of the transition towards a low-carbon economy.</p>
<p>Finance sector sees this transition as an opportunity to generate profit. If climate change is fought according to the rules of Wall Street, says Ferrando, people and projects will be supported only on the basis of whether they will make money.</p>
<p><strong>If COP24 can’t save us, what can?</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>At COP24 environmental movements have an opportunity to use their platform to highlight the relationship between economic growth and environmental impact, and even to discuss radical alternative futures that are not dependent on a growth-based economy – <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-climate-protesters-must-get-radical-and-challenge-economic-growth-107768">Christine Corlet Walker, PhD researcher in ecological economics, University of Surrey</a></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>To bring about radical action on the environment, many academics believe we need an equally radical social movement. They argue that protesters should seize the initiative to attack the root causes of climate change, such as economic growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248180/original/file-20181130-194953-6plqf7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Economic growth and carbon emissions are tightly linked. To limit one we must limit the other.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iea.org/newsroom/energysnapshots/co2-emissions-and-global-economy-growth-rates.html">International Energy Agency</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Debunking the climate change denialists</h2>
<p>2018 marks 30 years since climate change was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1988/06/24/us/global-warming-has-begun-expert-tells-senate.html">first declared</a> a man-made phenomenon, during a congressional committee in Washington DC. The testimony of NASA climatologist James Hansen was met with both concern and scepticism at the time, but the science is in: anthropogenic climate change is incontrovertible. </p>
<p>Climate change is happening and is being caused by humans. This is the academic consensus, backed by science. But for climate change deniers: </p>
<p><strong>The 97%</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><p>97.5% of scientists who had published peer-reviewed research about climate change agreed with the consensus that global warming is human-caused (<a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/107/27/12107">2010 study</a> from Princeton University).</p></li>
<li><p>97.1% of relevant climate papers published over 21 years affirmed human-caused global warming (<a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024/meta">2013 study</a> involving multiple institutions). </p></li>
<li><p>97% consensus in published climate research found to be robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies (<a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002">2016 study</a> involving multiple institutions).</p></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>What do the other 3% think?</strong></p>
<p>There is no consistent theme among the reasoning of the other 3%. Some say “there is no warming”, others suggest the sun, cosmic rays or the oceans as a reason.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248528/original/file-20181203-194922-1a1atsc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Studies from 2004-2015 show near unanimous confidence in the scientific evidence for climate change.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cook_et_al._(2016)_Studies_consensus.jpg">John Cook/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Why do some still not believe in human-caused climate change?</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p><em>The fossil fuel industry has spent many millions of dollars on confusing the public about climate change. But the role of vested interests in climate science denial is only half the picture. The other significant player is political ideology – <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-fossil-fuelled-climate-denial-61273">John Cook, research fellow in climate change communication, George Mason University</a></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p>An <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-1018-7">analysis</a> by American professor Robert Brulle found that from 2003 to 2010, organisations promoting climate misinformation received more than US$900m of corporate funding a year. From 2008, funding through untraceable donor networks (so-called “dark money ATM”) increased. This allowed corporations to fund climate science denial while hiding their support.</p>
<p>In 2016, an <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/113/1/92.short">analysis</a> of more than 40,000 texts from contrarian sources by Justin Farrell, another American professor, found that organisations who received corporate funding published more climate misinformation.</p>
<p>At an individual level, however, there is considerable evidence that shows that political ideology is the biggest predictor of climate science denial. People who fear the solutions to climate change, such as increased regulation of industry, are more likely to deny that there is a problem in the first place.</p>
<p>Consequently, groups promoting political ideology that opposes market regulation have been prolific sources of misinformation about climate change, as three American academics <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09644010802055576">found</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Five Techniques used by climate change deniers to look out for:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248395/original/file-20181203-194922-gd7fer.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Five characteristics of science denial.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dr John Cook</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ul>
<li><p>Fake experts: create the general impression of an ongoing debate by casting doubt on scientific consensus. </p></li>
<li><p>Logical fallacies: logically false arguments that lead to an invalid conclusion. These usually appear in myths, in the form of science misrepresentation or oversimplification.</p></li>
<li><p>Impossible expectations: demand unrealistic standards of proof before acting on the science. Any uncertainty is highlighted to question the consensus.</p></li>
<li><p>Cherry-picking: best described as wilfully ignoring a mountain of inconvenient evidence in favour of a small molehill that serves a desired purpose.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure> <img src="http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/Escalator500.gif"><figcaption>Going down the up escalator. Source: skepticalscience ‘The Escalator’. Data: NASA GISS</figcaption></figure>
<ul>
<li>Conspiracy theories: if the evidence is against you, then it has to be manipulated by mysterious forces in pursuit of a nefarious agenda. It is central to denial.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Relevant articles written by academics</h2>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/global-warming-pause-was-a-myth-all-along-says-new-study-51208">Myth of global warming ‘pause’</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/degrowth-is-the-radical-post-brexit-future-the-uk-needs-106964">Degrowth is the radical future the UK needs</a></p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-how-a-plastics-treaty-could-clean-up-our-oceans-107743">A plastics treaty could clean up our oceans</a></p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
We may only have 12 years to stop climate change and the landmark Paris Agreement of 2015 seems more in doubt than ever. What can we hope to come out of COP24?Khalil A. Cassimally, Head of Audience Insights, The Conversation InternationalJack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK editionLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1077682018-11-30T13:50:02Z2018-11-30T13:50:02ZCOP24: climate protesters must get radical and challenge economic growth<p>At the COP24 conference in Poland, countries are aiming to finalise the implementation plan for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/paris-agreement-23382">2015 Paris Agreement</a>. The task has extra gravity in the wake of the recent <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/session48/pr_181008_P48_spm_en.pdf">IPCC report</a> declaring that we have just 12 years to take the action needed to limit global warming to that infamous 1.5ᵒC target.</p>
<p>Although the conference itself is open to selected state representatives only, many see the week as an <a href="http://apwld.org/press-release-over-100-civil-society-organisations-and-activists-oppose-crackdown-by-poland-to-protest-at-cop24/">opportunity to influence and define</a> the climate action agenda for the coming year, with protests planned outside the conference halls.</p>
<p>A crucial role of environmental activists is to shift the public discourse around climate change and to put pressure on state representatives to act boldly. COP24 offers a rare platform on which to drive a step change in the position of governments on climate change.</p>
<p>However, many environmental movements in Europe are not offering the critical analysis and radical narratives needed to achieve a halt to climate change.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/extinction-rebellion-im-an-academic-embracing-direct-action-to-stop-climate-change-107037">Extinction Rebellion : I'm an academic embracing direct action to stop climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Growing pains</h2>
<p>By now most people agree that greenhouse gas emissions (including CO₂) are the proximate driver of climate change, and that climate change is not only a future problem, but is already causing significant <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2100">environmental</a> and <a href="http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health">social</a> problems across the world. Further, the trend in global CO₂ emissions still appears to be increasing, driven largely by <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2010/02/23/0906974107.full.pdf">consumption in advanced and emerging economies</a>.</p>
<p>Economic growth measures the increase in the amount of goods and services produced by an economy over time, and it has historically been tightly coupled to CO₂ emissions. Decoupling these two factors <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652615008331">is not impossible</a>, and indeed many leading academics argue that the power of human ingenuity will solve the climate crisis. However, this is certainly <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=dGt0Rogq6MIC&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=Decoupling+Natural+Resource+Use+and+Environmental+Impacts+from+Economic+Growth&ots=jwJ-muVPz5&sig=F7orFeveR2b0SShqH4DFzFwPH0w#v=onepage&q=Decoupling%2520Natural%2520Resource%2520Use%2520and%2520Environmental%2520Impacts%2520from%2520Economic%2520Growth&f=false">unlikely in the timescales needed</a> to tackle climate change in a just and equitable way.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248007/original/file-20181129-170220-l8qviq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248007/original/file-20181129-170220-l8qviq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248007/original/file-20181129-170220-l8qviq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248007/original/file-20181129-170220-l8qviq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248007/original/file-20181129-170220-l8qviq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248007/original/file-20181129-170220-l8qviq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248007/original/file-20181129-170220-l8qviq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248007/original/file-20181129-170220-l8qviq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Economic growth and carbon emissions are closely linked.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.iea.org/newsroom/energysnapshots/co2-emissions-and-global-economy-growth-rates.html">International Energy Agency</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Practically, what this means is that as long as economic growth continues to expand rapidly and indefinitely, so too will the quantity of CO₂ in the atmosphere and the associated environmental and social impacts.</p>
<p>To address climate change, therefore, we must address the root cause of this planetary ailment: the ideology of growth first, growth always. By moving away from growth-oriented societies in Europe and other advanced economies, towards ones that prioritise environmental and social health, we stand the slimmest chance of solving our climate crisis, while still allowing the poorest economies globally to meet their economic needs.</p>
<h2>From outrage to strategy</h2>
<p>Recent environmental movements demanding action on climate change, like the <a href="https://rebellion.earth/">Extinction Rebellion</a> in the UK and the <a href="https://www.ende-gelaende.org/en/">Ende Gelande Alliance</a> in Germany, don’t seem to take a clear stance on the role of economic growth in driving climate change. They don’t identify our unwavering commitment to the dogma of <a href="https://theconversation.com/degrowth-is-the-radical-post-brexit-future-the-uk-needs-106964">infinite economic growth</a> as the driving force behind climate change, and as the reason that our efforts thus far have been impotent to stop the growing tidal wave of CO₂ emissions.</p>
<p>In the UK, the Extinction Rebellion has captured the public’s attention and gathered widespread support and <a href="https://theconversation.com/extinction-rebellion-im-an-academic-embracing-direct-action-to-stop-climate-change-107037">media coverage</a> over the past few weeks, with their outraged cries for government action. </p>
<p>However, their demands are broad and unspecific, asking for “net zero [carbon emissions] by 2025”. They make no mention of how the UK government might achieve this, but link to other websites which offer potential routes for reaching this target.</p>
<p>The sites suggested by the Extinction Rebellion promote ideas such as <a href="https://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/voices/decoupling-debate">green growth</a> and a <a href="https://www.greennewdealgroup.org/">green new deal</a>. These ideas are founded on the premise that we can achieve both continually high rates of economic growth and reduce our impact on the planet. Sadly, the evidence (and a dash of common sense) tells us that this is <a href="https://www.pwc.co.uk/sustainability-climate-change/assets/pdf/low-carbon-economy-index-2018-final.pdf">not yet happening</a>, and is unlikely to be possible <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/18/the-hope-at-the-heart-of-the-apocalyptic-climate-change-report/">in the near future</a>. So what should groups like Extinction Rebellion do?</p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>It would currently be considered political madness to advocate for policies that might unintentionally, or intentionally, limit economic growth. Unfortunately, however, without a wider critique of the toxic relationship between climate change and economic growth, governments will be almost powerless to achieve any net zero targets they set.</p>
<p>At COP24 environmental movements have an opportunity to use their platform to highlight the relationship between economic growth and environmental impact, and even to discuss radical alternative futures that are <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/whp/ev/2013/00000022/00000002/art00005">not dependent on a growth-based economy</a>.</p>
<p>Importantly, this doesn’t have to be considered a sacrifice. The relationship between economic growth and happiness in wealthy economies is <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/27646948.pdf?casa_token=vMBbUmnv8BQAAAAA:_RVdcO-LMpJ2-sxb1g_80vZTe7xikJNL9xi8K0eysG2h_n1Ajazx2qsvbfCcTUW0859JQtUq0tNjeXxJgL1JQHWpRb2UVpcyk_U8s595PSKMASMmJop-">at best complicated</a>, and at worst nonexistent. This demonstrates the possibility of finding paths to climate stability that do not diminish our quality of life.</p>
<p>By identifying the root cause of climate change, and our inability to address it, these groups can go further than demanding action. They can change public mindsets, put pressure on national governments and point to a shared way forward. Here, we have our best shot at limiting the damage of climate change in a meaningful and timely way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107768/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christine Corlet Walker receives funding from the South East Network for Social Sciences. </span></em></p>With so much attention focused on what agreements come out of COP24, protesters should be seizing the initiative to attack the root causes of climate change.Christine Corlet Walker, PhD Candidate in Ecological Economics, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1048832018-10-25T10:48:52Z2018-10-25T10:48:52ZFoundations are making climate change a bigger priority<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242183/original/file-20181025-71017-1a85prb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When subsistence farmers become climate refugees, who will help them pay the cost of relocation?
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dhaka-bangladesh-january-21-2016-climate-757974523">gregorioa/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Twenty-nine mostly U.S.-based philanthropic institutions, including the <a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/MacArthur-s-Julia-Stasch/244627">John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation</a>, the <a href="https://www.packard.org/what-we-fund/climate/what-were-doing/climate-program-timeline/">David and Lucile Packard Foundation</a> and the <a href="https://hewlett.org/newsroom/william-flora-hewlett-foundation-announces-600-million-philanthropic-commitment-climate-change/">William and Flora Hewlett Foundation</a> plan to spend an <a href="http://ens-newswire.com/2018/09/26/foundations-pledge-4-billion-climate-down-payment/">unprecedented total of US$4 billion</a> over the next five years addressing climate change. </p>
<p>But what exactly can charitable efforts on that scale do to slow the pace of global warming and help people cope with its consequences? Based on my research in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=0M6hB44AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">disaster preparedness and response</a>, I believe that although philanthropy amounts to only a small part of climate change spending worldwide, givers can make a big difference to those already suffering the consequences.</p>
<h2>Causes vs. consequences</h2>
<p>There are two main priorities for all climate-related spending, no matter the source.</p>
<p>One is forward-looking. It has to do with <a href="https://www.climateworks.org/portfolios/grants-database/">actions and research</a> that might avert climate change on the most <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/30years.shtml">disastrous scale</a> possible.</p>
<p>The other <a href="https://kresge.org/climate-adaptation">addresses what’s happening now</a>. The effects of a warming world are increasingly becoming a matter of reality, and not just hypothetical concerns about what might occur in the future. There are people who have already <a href="http://www.unhcr.org/innovation/why-unhcr-is-taking-action-on-climate-change-displacement/">lost their homes</a>, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/next-decade-critical-perils-mount-at-1-5-degrees-of-warming-says-ipcc-20181008-p508ci.html">livelihoods</a> or <a href="http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health">loved ones</a> because of the changing climate.</p>
<p>There will be more of them in the years ahead – probably including hundreds of millions of people in <a href="https://phys.org/news/2018-10-bangladesh-kids-tide-climate-aboard.html">countries like Bangladesh</a> who can least cope with the changes. According to the World Bank, climate change and poverty are now so intertwined that <a href="https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5">they can only be solved together</a>.</p>
<p>Philanthropists also have a third climate-spending priority to consider: reducing collateral damage.</p>
<p>Actions to curb climate change may have unintended consequences that hit specific groups of people hardest. Some of the policies and <a href="https://futureoflife.org/2016/08/05/developing-countries-cant-afford-climate-change/">technologies that can help slow down climate change</a> by reducing carbon emissions are <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/705871522683196873/Paris-climate-agreement-and-the-global-economy-winners-and-losers">bound to create a few losers</a> even if the winners are far more numerous.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242185/original/file-20181025-71017-17hiutp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242185/original/file-20181025-71017-17hiutp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/242185/original/file-20181025-71017-17hiutp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242185/original/file-20181025-71017-17hiutp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242185/original/file-20181025-71017-17hiutp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242185/original/file-20181025-71017-17hiutp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242185/original/file-20181025-71017-17hiutp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/242185/original/file-20181025-71017-17hiutp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tanzanian subsistence farmers harvesting seaweed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/zanzibar-tanzania-august-18th-2017-group-1187092000?src=8sUa3AAUdiJCDrICEUTGpw-1-36">Gray Kotze/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Charity, activism, advocacy and research</h2>
<p>Climate philanthropy may be ramping up, but it isn’t new. Donors and foundations have been playing <a href="https://philanthropynewsdigest.org/columns/alliance-pnd/climate-philanthropy-the-tyranny-of-the-2-percent">a role in the fight against climate change for decades</a>, albeit on a smaller scale. </p>
<p>Some of the foundations engaged in climate philanthropy spend significant sums on efforts to increase public awareness of the problem, sometimes <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do/funding">through media coverage of global warming</a> and helping develop <a href="https://www.ef.org/about-us/">better policies</a>, such as the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/house-bill/2454">climate bill</a> that cleared the House of Representatives – but not the Senate – during the Obama administration. There are foundations backing efforts to <a href="http://www.nathancummings.org/what-we-fund">make the economy more equitable</a> while it becomes less fossil-fueled as well.</p>
<p>In some cases, philanthropic dollars flow toward <a href="https://www.packard.org/what-we-fund/climate/what-were-doing/innovation/">developing better technologies</a> that might lower the impact of humans on the climate but are not getting enough funding from other sources such as the <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Media-Center/Press-Releases/2008/01/%24306-Million-Commitment-to-Agricultural-Development">Gates Foundation’s grants to develop technology to lift subsistence farmers out of poverty</a>, which is one of the groups most vulnerable to climate change.</p>
<p>And dozens of foundations have declared that they will no longer invest any money from their endowments in companies that extract or produce oil, gas and coal. By <a href="https://gofossilfree.org/divestment/commitments/">refusing to own stocks and bonds</a> in those industries, they are encouraging big corporations to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that stoke global warming. </p>
<h2>Bigger pools of money</h2>
<p>Even so, charitable donations constitute a small share of the <a href="https://www.climateworks.org/philanthropyannouncement/">private-sector money addressing global warming</a>.
Donors can and do, for example, simply invest in companies that are deploying solar power or offshore wind turbines. </p>
<p>Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, along with other billionaire philanthropists like Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and entrepreneur Richard Branson, created a <a href="https://qz.com/1402301/bill-gatess-1-billion-energy-fund-is-expanding-its-portfolio-of-startups-fighting-climate-change/">$1 billion fund to back startups working on climate change solutions</a>. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/profiles/companies/1475104D:US-breakthrough-energy-ventures-llc">Gates serves as the chairman</a> of this private company.</p>
<p>Indeed, the <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/wind-and-solar-costs-continue-to-drop-below-fossil-fuels-what-barriers-rem/519671/">costs of wind power and solar energy have fallen</a> sharply over the past decade, making them far more competitive and sparking <a href="http://resourceirena.irena.org/gateway/dashboard/?topic=4&subTopic=18">swift growth in the amount of power</a> derived from renewable sources around the world and especially in China, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency, an intergovernmental organization that tracks this data.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7A4npk1Deug?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Bill Gates describes what he sees as the five ‘grand challenges’ for addressing climate change.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And many donors support political candidates who pledge to take action on climate change – as the billionaire <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/08/democratic-mega-donor-tom-steyer-says-hell-spend-30-million-flip-congress/1013035001/">Tom Steyer</a> and his wife Kathryn Taylor regularly do in addition to their <a href="http://www.news.ucsb.edu/2016/016918/bold-solutions">climate-inspired giving</a>.</p>
<p>How significant has climate giving become? While $4 billion may sound like a lot of money, it still represents a small fraction of <a href="https://theconversation.com/fewer-americans-are-giving-money-to-charity-but-total-donations-are-at-record-levels-anyway-98291">1 percent of the $410 billion</a> U.S. individuals, estates, corporations and foundations gave in 2017 to nonprofits, faith-based organizations and other charities, according to the Giving USA 2018 report. <a href="https://givingusa.org/tag/giving-usa-2018/">More than half of this giving</a> supports religious activities, education, social services, health care and medical research.</p>
<p><iframe id="FTjUv" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FTjUv/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Even though <a href="http://www.who.int/globalchange/global-campaign/cop21/en/">climate change by most accounts is the greatest threat to human health</a>, philanthropy also still accounts for only a small percentage of all grants from the nation’s foundations, which disbursed nearly <a href="https://www.nptrust.org/philanthropic-resources/charitable-giving-statistics/">$67 billion in 2017</a>. </p>
<p>Worldwide, spending on climate change, coincidentally, also amounts to <a href="http://www.climatefinancelandscape.org/">about $410 billion a year</a>, from governments, businesses and charities. </p>
<p>Philanthropy also contributes only a sliver of this climate change funding coming from all sources. Governments, even after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-decision-to-leave-paris-accord-hurts-the-us-and-the-world-78707">U.S. backed out of</a> its commitments under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/one-planet-summit-finance-commitments-fire-up-higher-momentum-for-paris-climate-change-agreement">Paris climate deal</a>, are by far the largest source.</p>
<p>The European Union alone provided <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/12/eu-announces-9bn-in-funding-for-climate-action">$23 billion to developing countries</a> in 2016 to combat climate change, <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/budget/mainstreaming_en">and it plans to spend at least a full 20 percent of its budget on climate change in the future</a>, which comes to nearly $37 billion each year by 2020. Many intergovernmental financial institutions, such as the <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/energy/mini-grids/financing/grants">African Development Bank</a>, also support the use of green energy technology in low-income countries.</p>
<h2>An important role</h2>
<p>That does not mean climate giving is insignificant. It does mean, I believe, that philanthropists must carefully target their relatively modest grants and investments to maximize their impact.</p>
<p>Rather than adding a few billion dollars into the total pool of climate funding, philanthropists can heavily fund a few specific areas that are often neglected. The biggest difference climate philanthropy can make, in my view, is by helping the most vulnerable people around the world cope with climate change.</p>
<p>There are 800 million people in developing countries who depend on <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/11/12/for-up-to-800-million-rural-poor-a-strong-world-bank-commitment-to-agriculture">subsistence farming</a> to make a living, and many of the 143 million people who the World Bank <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/06/20/621782275/the-refugees-that-the-world-barely-pays-attention-to">estimates will become climate refugees by 2050</a> are subsistence farmers.</p>
<p>That is how the <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/how-bill-gates-thinks-about-climate-change-innovation-and-the-sdgs-93454">Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation</a>, which does not rank among the leaders in climate-related giving, is proceeding. It sat out of the $4 billion collective philanthropic pledge but it is <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/What-We-Do/Global-Growth-and-Opportunity/Agricultural-Development">making grants to help farmers with small plots of land</a> in the poorest countries like Tanzania and Niger cope with “diseases, pests and drought from a changing climate.”</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: The Gates Foundation is a funder of The Conversation Media Group.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Morten Wendelbo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The $4 billion that foundations are pledging to spend within five years amounts to less than 1 percent of what businesses and governments spend on global warming every year.Morten Wendelbo, Research Fellow, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1026692018-09-06T13:38:27Z2018-09-06T13:38:27ZThe world is not building enough green power – here’s another way to tackle Paris targets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235027/original/file-20180905-45172-1xhsbji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Old Delhi skyline. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/street-view-jama-masjid-principal-mosque-1088879555?src=HtAonKoH4aUTZVuB2KX5Tw-1-92">ImagesofIndia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>All across the world, we hear uplifting stories that reflect the fast changes in the energy scene. The developed world is consuming <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-primary-energy.pdf">less energy</a> than ten years ago. Carbon prices <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-23/carbon-reaching-20-euros-a-ton-in-europe-raises-price-for-power">are at</a> the highest level in a decade. Costa Rica now <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/costa-rica-fossil-fuels-ban-president-carlos-alvarado-climate-change-global-warming-a8344541.html">generates</a> more than 99% of its electricity from renewables. Yet the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-paris-climate-deal-52256">Paris climate</a> targets seem in jeopardy and most forecasts <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/the-download/609282/were-still-not-doing-enough-to-beat-climate-change/">say not enough</a> is being done. Why?</p>
<p>In truth, nearly nobody is doing enough to <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/10/31/16579844/climate-gap-unep-2017">cut emissions</a> by the 11-19 gigatonnes thought necessary to restrict the increase in the world’s temperature to 1.5°C by 2050. While Europe has done so much in the past and has an 18% renewables share of electricity generation, <a href="http://www.caneurope.org/docman/climate-energy-targets/3357-off-target-ranking-of-eu-countries-ambition-and-progress-in-fighting-climate-change/file">now</a> it is stalling. Donald Trump has taken the US out of Paris and <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20082018/trump-solar-panels-tariffs-clean-energy-economy-jobs-united-states-market">is trying</a> to revive the coal industry, while taxing imported solar panels.</p>
<p>The developing world, which tends to be more heavily reliant on fossil fuels to produce power, will have taken note. This matters, because energy demand from non-OECD countries is <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-primary-energy.pdf">currently around</a> 60% of the world total. Consumption is still rising fast, with growing numbers of connected homes a key factor.</p>
<p><strong>Electricity generation by source, 2017</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235210/original/file-20180906-190653-42aswm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235210/original/file-20180906-190653-42aswm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235210/original/file-20180906-190653-42aswm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235210/original/file-20180906-190653-42aswm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235210/original/file-20180906-190653-42aswm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235210/original/file-20180906-190653-42aswm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235210/original/file-20180906-190653-42aswm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235210/original/file-20180906-190653-42aswm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2018</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is difficult to generalise, however. China has invested massively in renewable energy – <a href="https://www.power-technology.com/comment/global-renewables-capacity-set-surge-amid-huge-investment-china/">US$127 billion (£99 billion)</a> in 2017 alone, which is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/china-is-a-renewable-energy-champion-but-its-time-for-a-new-approach/">head and shoulders</a> above any other country. The new solar capacity China installed during that year equates to several <a href="https://theconversation.com/hinkley-point-c-delay-how-to-exploit-this-attack-of-common-sense-in-energy-policy-63293">Hinkley Point</a> nuclear power plants. With heavy government support, China <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/china-energy-consumption-idUSL4N1LA1PM">has made</a> excellent progress reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP, and an even better job at reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP. </p>
<p>India is further behind. Where China <a href="https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/9934-Three-lessons-from-China-s-effort-to-bring-electricity-to-1-4-billion-people">announced</a> that every household had access to electricity in 2015, India is still going through a major electrification push. It <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-26/india-nears-power-success-but-millions-are-still-in-the-dark">has doubled</a> the proportion of homes connected to over 80% since the turn of the century, though millions of homes still don’t have electricity. </p>
<p>India’s electricity system relies primarily on cheap domestic coal, <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html">accounting for</a> about three quarters of consumption. India is therefore heavily relying on coal to fuel its economic growth, and the electrification push is rapidly <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018-country-insight-india.pdf">driving up</a> demand – putting further stress on the power grid, too. China had an even greater dependency on coal a few years ago; <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018-country-insight-china.pdf">now</a> it is more like two thirds for electricity and 60% <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2017/html/EN0902.jpg">for energy</a> overall. </p>
<p><strong>India/China growth rates 2011-2017</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235110/original/file-20180905-45178-l68mxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235110/original/file-20180905-45178-l68mxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235110/original/file-20180905-45178-l68mxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235110/original/file-20180905-45178-l68mxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235110/original/file-20180905-45178-l68mxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235110/original/file-20180905-45178-l68mxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235110/original/file-20180905-45178-l68mxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235110/original/file-20180905-45178-l68mxl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BP Statistical Review of World Energy, IMF WEO Update (July 2018)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But if India has more work to do, there are signs it is moving in the right direction. Investment in renewable power <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables-investment-in-india-topped-fossil-fuels-for-first-time-in-2017">did finally</a> top that of fossil fuel generation last year, and the country <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/iea-highlights-indias-progressive-role-in-the-global-energy-marketplace/">recently earned</a> praise for its efforts in this area. </p>
<p>In sharp contrast to these countries, Russia has a <a href="http://soviethistory.msu.edu/1921-2/electrification-campaign/communism-is-soviet-power-electrification-of-the-whole-country/">Soviet legacy</a> of full electrification. Yet power generation from renewables last year, excluding hydro-electricity, was only 0.1% of total output. Russia is <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2018/08/02/the-world-relies-on-russia-to-build-its-nuclear-power-plants">instead</a> pushing for more nuclear power, which is <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/190064/first-time-majority-oppose-nuclear-energy.aspx">unpopular</a> in the West. On the other hand, its <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018-country-insight-russia.pdf">coal dependency</a> for electricity is in the low teens; most Russian power comes from gas. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235030/original/file-20180905-45181-1gbv6bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235030/original/file-20180905-45181-1gbv6bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235030/original/file-20180905-45181-1gbv6bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235030/original/file-20180905-45181-1gbv6bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235030/original/file-20180905-45181-1gbv6bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235030/original/file-20180905-45181-1gbv6bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235030/original/file-20180905-45181-1gbv6bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235030/original/file-20180905-45181-1gbv6bw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electric Moscow.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/city-skyline-lights-moscow-landscape-300838730?src=Z8MKxR_v3trGfbbZz2sIcQ-1-4">kichigin</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia have all seen strong increases in power generation and CO₂ emissions over the past decade. Recent data also contains stark warnings for the future: Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines all increased CO₂ emissions <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-co2-emissions.pdf">above 5%</a> in 2017, mostly through significant <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1387105">increases</a> in coal-fired electricity output.</p>
<p>Many <a href="https://theconversation.com/developing-countries-can-prosper-without-increasing-emissions-84044">developing countries</a> have resisted pressure from the West to decarbonise in the past, arguing Western industrialisation caused most of the problem in the first place, and it will be even harder to persuade them in the current climate. So it is important to realise it is not purely a straight choice between cheaper fossil fuel power and renewables (or nuclear): additional options often get overlooked. </p>
<h2>Coal and gas vs renewables</h2>
<p>Coal’s <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/chief-economist-analysis.html">share</a> of global electricity production is the same as 20 years ago. Yet newer plants have at least made generation more efficient. Between 1997 and 2016, fuel savings <a href="http://data.iea.org//payment/products/103-world-energy-statistics-and-balances-2018-edition.aspx">in power generation</a> were 8% for coal and 16% for natural gas. Coal plants in developing countries are approaching the efficiency levels of the developed world, while gas plants have seen improvements worldwide. </p>
<p>We are also underplaying an opportunity with gas. When you compare new gas and coal plants, the carbon emissions from gas <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-and-other-fossil-fuels/environmental-impacts-of-natural-gas">are between</a> 50% and 60% lower per unit of power output. In this respect, the fact that gas-fired electricity output <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html">has almost</a> tripled in the last 20 years is to be welcomed. Persuade some countries to switch future plants from coal to gas and you make a big difference to emissions. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/06/23/622727843/large-methane-leaks-threaten-perception-of-clean-natural-gas?t=1536231629432">Methane emissions</a> are a controversial downside, but there is still <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/october/commentary-the-environmental-case-for-natural-gas.html">a case</a> for gas. </p>
<p><strong>Share of global electricity generation by fuel</strong> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235184/original/file-20180906-190668-1rln0if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235184/original/file-20180906-190668-1rln0if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235184/original/file-20180906-190668-1rln0if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235184/original/file-20180906-190668-1rln0if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235184/original/file-20180906-190668-1rln0if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235184/original/file-20180906-190668-1rln0if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235184/original/file-20180906-190668-1rln0if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235184/original/file-20180906-190668-1rln0if.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/powerpoint/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-electricity-slidepack.pptx">BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2018</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yes, replacing fossil generation plants with renewables is a quicker way to decarbonise electricity, but we need to be realistic. This will involve building a phenomenal amount of capacity – and we’re moving too slowly. Global investment in renewables <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/17/iea-warns-of-worrying-trend-as-global-investment-in-renewables-falls">actually fell</a> last year. To turn this around, <a href="http://www.irena.org/publications/2018/Jan/Renewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017">reducing costs</a> is vitally important, as is carbon pricing – the UK is a <a href="https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/switching-from-coal-to-gas-decreased-britains-emissions-by-six-percent-1.771620">prime example</a> of how this can effectively remove coal from the energy mix.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, scores of new fossil-powered plants are in the offing worldwide, and developing nations in particular are just not going to build enough renewables to reach the Paris targets. By 2040, renewables are <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html">still forecast</a> to have a smaller share of power generation than oil, gas or coal. <a href="http://www.ccsassociation.org/what-is-ccs/">Carbon capture and storage</a> is also <a href="https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/projects/large-scale-ccs-projects">growing too slowly</a>.</p>
<p>It is important to emphasise that electricity is not the only issue – it <a href="https://www.iea.org/weo2017/">only accounts</a> for about 40% of the increase in final consumption up to 2040. Another understated challenge, for example, is the <a href="https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/weo2017SUM.pdf">growing use</a> of oil in transport. Yet if there is an electric car revolution, a substantial share of that demand will shift into electricity – and it will only be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2017/dec/25/how-green-are-electric-cars">as clean</a> as its source. </p>
<p>But given the reality of where the world, particularly the developing world, is heading, we should only expect so much of renewables. We must also focus on plant efficiency and encouraging switching from coal to gas-fired power. I am not saying this will make the Paris targets achievable, but it will get us closer than being dogmatic about renewables. We need to recognise where we are and tackle carbon emissions from all possible ends.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102669/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>António Carvalho collaborates with BP for the Statistical Review of World Energy and Energy Outlook, but the views expressed here are his own. </span></em></p>The case for pragmatism, not dogma.António Carvalho, Research Associate (Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy), Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1027252018-09-05T20:04:28Z2018-09-05T20:04:28ZAustralia is not on track to reach 2030 Paris target (but the potential is there)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341770/original/file-20200615-65908-1jhwnnx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=15%2C5%2C3479%2C2294&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tim Wimbourne/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While Australia is coming to terms with yet another new prime minister, one thing that hasn’t changed is the emissions data: Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions are not projected to fall any further without new policies.</p>
<p>Australia, as a signatory to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a> on climate change, has committed to reduce its total emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030, and reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-climate-changes-2-degrees-celsius-of-warming-limit-so-important-82058">Why is climate change's 2 degrees Celsius of warming limit so important?</a>
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<p><a href="https://climateworks.com.au/story/media-release/australia-not-track-reach-2030-emissions-reduction-target-potential-there-report">New analysis</a> by ClimateWorks Australia has found Australia has three times the potential needed to reach the federal government’s current 2030 target, but this will not be achieved under current policy settings.</p>
<h2>Energy is not the only sector</h2>
<p>Australia’s emissions were actually falling for more than half a decade, but have been steadily increasing again since 2013. If Australia sustained the rate of emissions reduction we achieved between 2005 and 2013, we could meet the government’s 2030 target. But progress has stalled in most sectors, and reversed overall.</p>
<p>Emissions are still above 2005 levels in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, and only 3% below in the electricity sector. It is mainly because of land sector emissions savings that overall Australia’s emissions are on track to meet its 2020 target, and are currently 11% below 2005 levels.</p>
<p>Despite the current focus on the energy market, electricity emissions comprise about <a href="http://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/Chart_KP.aspx?OD_ID=79041503672&TypeID=2">one-third</a> of Australia’s total greenhouse emissions. So no matter what policies are proposed for electricity, other policies will be needed for the other major sectors of industry, buildings, transport and land.</p>
<p>Fortunately, Australia is blessed with opportunities for more emissions reductions in all sectors.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-global-warming-to-1-5-degrees-really-hard-but-not-impossible-84203">Keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees: really hard, but not impossible</a>
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<p>ClimateWorks’ analysis assessed Australia’s progress on reducing emissions at the halfway point from the 2005 base year to 2030, looking across the whole of the economy as well as at key sectors.</p>
<p>We found emissions reductions since 2005 have been led by reduced land clearing and increased forestation, as well as energy efficiency and a slight reduction in power emissions as more renewable energy has entered the market. But while total emissions reduced at an economy-wide level, and in some sectors at certain times, none of the sectors improved consistently at the rate needed to achieve the Paris climate targets.</p>
<p>Interestingly, some sub-sectors were on track for some of the time. Non-energy emissions from industry and the land sector were both improving at a rate consistent with a net zero emissions pathway for around five years. The buildings sector energy efficiency and electricity for some years improved at more than half the rate of a net zero emissions pathway. These rates have all declined since 2014 (electricity resumed its rate of improvement again in 2016).</p>
<h2>Looking forward</h2>
<p>Looking forward to 2030, we studied what would happen to emissions under current policies and those in development, including the government’s original version of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-the-national-energy-guarantee-at-a-glance-85832">National Energy Guarantee</a> with a 26% emission target for the National Electricity Market. Our analysis shows emissions reductions would be led by a further shift to cleaner electricity and energy efficiency improvements in buildings and transport, but that this would be offset by population and economic growth.</p>
<p>As a result, emissions reductions are projected to stagnate at just 11% below 2005 levels by 2030. Australia needs to double its emissions reduction progress to achieve the federal government’s 2030 target and triple its progress in order to reach net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>So, while Australia is not currently on track to meet 2030 target, our analysis found it is still possible to get there.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-pre-industrial-climate-and-why-does-it-matter-78601">What is a pre-industrial climate and why does it matter?</a>
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<p>The gap to the 2030 target could be more than covered by further potential for emissions reductions in the land sector alone, or almost be covered by the further potential in the electricity sector alone, or by the potential in the industry, buildings and transport sectors combined. Harnessing all sectors’ potential would put us back on track for the longer-term Paris Agreement goal of net zero emissions.</p>
<p>Essentially this involves increasing renewables and phasing out coal in the electricity sector; increasing energy efficiency and switching to low carbon fuels in industry; increasing standards in buildings; introducing vehicle emissions standards and shifting to electricity and low carbon fuels in transport; and undertaking more revegetation or forestation in the land sector.</p>
<p>The opportunities identified in each sector are the lowest-cost combination using proven technologies that achieve the Paris Agreement goal, while the economy continues to grow.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-can-get-to-zero-carbon-emissions-and-grow-the-economy-32015">Australia can get to zero carbon emissions, and grow the economy</a>
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<p>In the next two years, countries around the world, including Australia, will be required to report on the progress of their Paris Agreement targets and present their plans for the goal of net zero emissions. With so much potential for reducing emissions across all sectors of the Australian economy, we can do more to support all sectors to get on track – there is more than enough opportunity, if we act on it in time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102725/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Skarbek is CEO of ClimateWorks Australia which receives funding from philanthropy and project-based income from federal, state and local government and private sector organisations. ClimateWorks Australia was co-founded by Monash University and The Myer Foundation and works within the Monash Sustainable Development Institute.</span></em></p>Australia is falling behind on its Paris targets, but we have many options for improvement.Anna Skarbek, CEO at ClimateWorks Australia, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/976202018-06-07T08:57:38Z2018-06-07T08:57:38ZHow $6 trillion of fossil fuel investments got dumped thanks to green campaigners<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222026/original/file-20180606-137288-1pi63hh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesting in Berlin. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Climate_March_Berlin_-136_(22799793223).jpg#/media/File:Global_Climate_March_Berlin_-136_(22799793223).jpg">Wikimedia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It <a href="http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/publications/reports/SAP-divestment-report-final.pdf">has become</a> one of the fastest growing political campaigns in human history, surpassing similar battles against the tobacco industry and the fight against apartheid in South Africa. Its logic <a href="https://gofossilfree.org/divestment/what-is-fossil-fuel-divestment/">is simple</a>: the only way to avoid climate change and dangerous levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is for most fossil fuel reserves to stay in the ground. </p>
<p>Campaigners launched the fossil fuel divestment campaign in the early 2010s. Their argument was that you curb consumption of fossil fuels if you stop investing in the companies involved in extracting and burning them. Create a significant enough stigma, they argued, and this issue will shoot up the political agenda. </p>
<p>In the past five years or so, investment funds, public institutions and individuals have duly <a href="https://gofossilfree.org/divestment/commitments/">divested</a> around US$6.15 trillion (£4.6 trillion) of fossil fuel assets. It has helped that the campaign attracted a number of prestigious institutions early on, including
the British Medical Association, University College London, University of California, the Church of England and the World Council of Churches (representing more than a half billion Christians globally). </p>
<p>The campaign gained further traction after a London-based think tank <a href="https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/carbon-bubble/">argued that</a> fossil fuels were in any case a bad investment because the true costs of environmental damage had not been priced in and that at some point there would be a severe correction. </p>
<p>The battle is far from over, however, as demonstrated by the recent decision of the Church of Scotland not to divest. One of the cornerstones of European faith, whose teachings have helped shape everyone from Robert Burns to Rupert Murdoch, its annual general assembly held an <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/church-fund-urged-to-drop-oil-vt3wbl7wc">impassioned two-hour debate</a> on whether to remove oil and gas stocks from its £443m investment fund. </p>
<h2>The high road</h2>
<p>The Church of Scotland has form in this regard: it had <a href="http://brightnow.org.uk/news/church-of-scotland-divests-from-coal-and-tar-sands/">already divested</a> its coal and tar sands investments two years earlier. Ahead of the latest debate, its official <a href="https://www.gapublications.co.uk/docs/17_Report-of-Church-and-Society.pdf">general assembly report</a> summarised the issue as follows:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is deeply uncomfortable for the Church, as a caring organisation concerned about climate justice, to continue to invest in something which causes the very harm it seeks to alleviate. </p>
<p>While we have profited from oil and gas exploration in the past, we now understand that financing the future exploration and production will take us away from fulfilling the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> and delay the transition to a low carbon economy. </p>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222036/original/file-20180606-137318-1x7vmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222036/original/file-20180606-137318-1x7vmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222036/original/file-20180606-137318-1x7vmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222036/original/file-20180606-137318-1x7vmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222036/original/file-20180606-137318-1x7vmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222036/original/file-20180606-137318-1x7vmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222036/original/file-20180606-137318-1x7vmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222036/original/file-20180606-137318-1x7vmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Church of Scotland general assembly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rowan Gard</span></span>
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<p>Yet the approximately 1,000 commissioners attending the General Assembly Hall on the city’s Mound, next to Edinburgh Castle, narrowly disagreed: 47% in favour and 53% against. Coming from a nation which <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/renewable-energy-electricity-wind-wave-scotland-climate-change-oil-gas-a8283166.html">already gets</a> most of its electricity from renewable sources, and whose government has indicated the end is in sight for fossil fuel vehicles on the roads, it was undeniably a disappointment. </p>
<p>Representatives were persuaded that it was better to stay invested and seek to influence better behaviour than to pull out altogether. Reverend Jenny Adams, who had brought the motion in the first place, argued that all the evidence suggests oil and gas companies have little intention of changing quickly enough to satisfy the Paris agreement. She said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is a need for climate emissions to peak by 2020 and if we just keep talking, too much time passes and change is not coming fast enough.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>She is surely right about this. There may be traditional wisdom in engaging with fellow shareholders and board members on matters pertaining to large companies, but the church’s decision looks naïve in relation to this sector. </p>
<p>To give just one example, consider that approximately 94% of shareholders of the oil giant Royal Dutch Shell <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/shell-shareholders-94-per-cent-emissions-reduction-target-reject-paris-agreement-climate-change-a7751681.html">voted last year</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7f945fc4-5dc6-11e8-9334-2218e7146b04">again this year</a> to reject emission targets that would comply with the Paris climate accord, as it was deemed “not in the best interest of the company”. How do you persuade a bloc like that to change its mind?</p>
<h2>Amen corner</h2>
<p>While the Church of Scotland’s decision to sidestep divestment may have been a setback to the movement, there have been recent successes, too. The Church of Ireland <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/religion-and-beliefs/church-of-ireland-to-end-investments-in-fossil-fuel-companies-1.3492315">committed</a> to divest its fossil fuel assets earlier in May, while an international coalition of Catholic institutions, including the Scottish Catholic International Aid Fund, <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/news/16175358.35_Catholic_institutions_use_Earth_Day_to_vow_to_stop_funding_fossil_fuels/">pledged</a> in April to divest investments totalling £6.6 billion. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222040/original/file-20180606-137309-hkk4fb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222040/original/file-20180606-137309-hkk4fb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222040/original/file-20180606-137309-hkk4fb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222040/original/file-20180606-137309-hkk4fb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222040/original/file-20180606-137309-hkk4fb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222040/original/file-20180606-137309-hkk4fb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222040/original/file-20180606-137309-hkk4fb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222040/original/file-20180606-137309-hkk4fb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The movement speaks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rowan Gard</span></span>
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<p>Municipal administrations including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/10/new-york-city-plans-to-divest-5bn-from-fossil-fuels-and-sue-oil-companies">New York</a> and <a href="http://www.climateactionprogramme.org/news/paris-is-considering-suing-the-fossil-fuel-industry">Paris</a> are also divesting from fossil fuels and shifting their investments towards renewable energy sources – evidence that the global divestment is making an impact on public policy. </p>
<p>This certainly seems prudent, as newly published research suggests that the “carbon bubble” <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/04/carbon-bubble-could-spark-global-financial-crisis-study-warns">could “burst”</a> in the next two decades as demand for fossil fuel energy falls despite population increases and burgeoning global economic growth. </p>
<p>The study projects that the global fossil energy demand will drop by as much as 40% by 2050. If that comes to fruition, it would mean containing global warming levels to 1.5 °C, which is the aspirational goal of the Paris climate accord. </p>
<p>That would be great news for environmentalists, most especially for those living on the front lines of climate change such as in the Pacific, less so for investors in fossil fuel businesses – Presbyterian or otherwise. It’s a strong signal that this global divestment movement may still be a long way from its peak.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rowan Gard has received funding from the European Consortium for Pacific Studies (ECOPAS) funded by the European Union. She is affiliated with 350.org and Friends of the Earth Scotland, and has also volunteered and contributed to divestment campaigns in the US, UK and New Zealand. </span></em></p>Not the sort of amount you’d want to lose down the back of the sofa.Rowan Gard, Environmental Anthropologist, University of St AndrewsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.