tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/planning-725/articles
Planning – The Conversation
2024-02-28T14:41:38Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/223869
2024-02-28T14:41:38Z
2024-02-28T14:41:38Z
Ghana: Street vending helps migrants to survive in Accra, but it’s illegal – a solution for all is needed
<p>Moving to the city is a common strategy for the rural poor in the global south. Economic hardship pushes individuals out of their rural communities in search of opportunities. These tend to be found in urban centres, where facilities and services are concentrated. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/wmr-2020-interactive/">World Migration Report</a> indicated that 740 million people were migrants in their own country in 2009. </p>
<p>Even in the city, there’s no guarantee of finding a job. Many people therefore resort to informal ways of making a living, like street vending. In Ghana, about <a href="https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/ghana/10496.pdf">80% of the workforce</a> are employed in the informal sector.</p>
<p>We were among a group of urban planning researchers who recently <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s43545-023-00698-4">studied</a> the role of street vending in the lives of migrants in Ghana’s capital, Accra. In most <a href="https://www.wiego.org/sites/default/files/publications/files/IEMS-Sector-Report-Street-Vendors-Exec-Summary.pdf">African cities</a>, between 2% and 24% of informal workers are street vendors. </p>
<p>Our study showed that street sales were a source of jobs, income and survival for the urban poor in Ghana. This is even though street vending is illegal in the country.</p>
<p>We also assessed the effects of street vending from the lens of city authorities. Over the years, city authorities have failed to manage the activities of street vendors. Understanding all the relevant perspectives may help to find ways to meet people’s various needs in Ghanaian cities.</p>
<h2>Street vendors in Accra</h2>
<p>The study focused on street vending activities in the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-Accra-Central-Business-Area-Showing-the-Study-Area-Source-Survey-Dept_fig2_330913282">central business district</a> of Accra Metropolis. The area was selected due to the concentration of street vending activities such as the sale of hardware goods, electrical appliances, cosmetics, clothing, food and beverages, and the activities of financial institutions. </p>
<p>We interviewed 80 migrant street vendors and some city authorities. In assessing the socio-economic effects of street vending on the livelihoods of migrants, we monitored key livelihood indicators:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>income</p></li>
<li><p>access to social services (education and healthcare)</p></li>
<li><p>asset acquisition (property such as land)</p></li>
<li><p>social ties </p></li>
<li><p>educational assistance (helping relatives in their education) </p></li>
<li><p>family relationships. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>We found that a majority (60%) of the participants used to earn a monthly income of less than GH₵50.00 (US$4) before they took up street vending. After moving to Accra and entering into street vending, 72% of the respondents indicated that they earned over GH₵200 (US$16). </p>
<p>Over a third (68%) of the respondents indicated that their access to social services such as education, healthcare and recreational facilities had improved since migrating from their place of origin and starting street vending. This could be a result of the increased income coupled with the presence of social facilities and services in urban centres. </p>
<p>Half (50%) of the respondents had not acquired any assets for their family members since they started street vending. However, the other 50% had been able to acquire assets for their family members in their home of origin. These assets included land for residential and agricultural purposes. </p>
<p>Also, 58% of the respondents indicated that street vending enabled them to support family members’ education back home. </p>
<p>Most of the vendors said they were selling on the streets because they had limited skills. And the cost of living was high in the city. </p>
<p>The challenges they faced included: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>limited access to shelter</p></li>
<li><p>risk of arrest by city authorities (street vending is illegal in the capital)</p></li>
<li><p>limited access to food and related consumer items </p></li>
<li><p>inability to access social services by some street vendors</p></li>
<li><p>cultural shock and cultural difference.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>The city’s view</h2>
<p>City officials who took part in the research highlighted the challenges street vendors posed. These included: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>getting in the way of pedestrians and vehicles </p></li>
<li><p>forcing pedestrians to walk on the streets, increasing their chances of accidents </p></li>
<li><p>littering, which has environmental consequences and increases the cost of waste management.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The city authorities indicated that the most sustainable approach to managing the activities of street vendors was to allot portions of the pavements to them. One strategy suggested was to block specific roads on specified days to allow street vendors to sell their wares. </p>
<p>The Metropolitan Assembly <a href="https://ama.gov.gh/doc/bye-laws.pdf">bye-law</a> states that there should be no hawking by street vendors. The assembly monitors their activities and sometimes evicts them.</p>
<p>These management strategies are expensive and ineffective. Authorities lack political will to enforce them. Most mayors allow street vendors to operate without restrictions during election years. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>Street vendors believe their activities are legitimate and present social and economic opportunities. For example, they believe they can make a living and support their families by vending. They say relocating to Accra has strengthened their livelihoods and improved their access to healthcare services and other social facilities. </p>
<p>On the contrary, city authorities see street vending as an illegal activity that poses environmental threats to the city. They associate it with problems such as obstruction to pedestrians and vehicles, littering and petty crime. </p>
<p>Our study concludes that halting street vending without alternative livelihoods will mean denying thousands of people their livelihood. </p>
<p>Over the years, government skills training and growth <a href="https://thebftonline.com/2023/08/15/yea-exceeds-2023-youth-employment-target-by-16/">interventions</a> have excluded informal sector actors such as street vendors. The only way to get the vendors off the streets is to offer alternative sources of livelihood that will provide competitive income. </p>
<p>We propose that policymakers design skills training programmes for street vendors that will offer them sustainable and improved livelihoods. These programmes should be designed and carried out in a politically neutral way.</p>
<p>Also, institutions such as the Ministry of Roads and Highways, Transport Ministry, <a href="https://mofep.gov.gh/sites/default/files/pbb-estimates/2022/2022-PBB-NDPC.pdf">National Development Planning Commission</a> and local authorities should incorporate the activities of street vendors in the design of layouts, roads, plans and policies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Street sales are a source of jobs, income and survival for the urban poor in Ghana.
Stephen Appiah Takyi, Senior Lecturer, Department of Planning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST)
Owusu Amponsah, Senior Lecturer, Department of Planning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST)
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/223262
2024-02-15T14:28:05Z
2024-02-15T14:28:05Z
Developers in England will be forced to create habitats for wildlife – here’s how it works
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575657/original/file-20240214-18-dgx556.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C4287%2C2697&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/greatspotted-woodpecker-dendrocopos-major-single-young-146577746">Erni / shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>England’s new environmental policy, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/understanding-biodiversity-net-gain">biodiversity net gain</a>, went live on February 12. Most new developments – everything from a few houses to large solar farms or new roads and railways – will now have to provide a 10% net gain in biodiversity, maintained for at least 30 years. </p>
<p>The idea is that, instead of driving a loss of habitats for wildlife, developments will now contribute to a recovery. The new policy will be rolled out to small sites in April 2024 and nationally significant infrastructure projects in 2025. <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/research-approaches-measuring-biodiversity-scotland/pages/10/">Scotland</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.wales/targeted-policy-changes-planning-policy-wales-net-benefit-biodiversity-and-ecosystems-resilience#118788">Wales</a> are considering adopting similar policies.</p>
<p>It’s an exciting moment – we are academics who assess policies like these, and we recognise that this is one of the world’s most ambitious ecological compensation policies.</p>
<p>But our research has nonetheless identified flaws and loopholes. It will be important to get the nuts and bolts right to ensure the policy delivers real benefits, and that gains are not just made on paper.</p>
<h2>What does a ‘biodiversity net gain’ actually mean?</h2>
<p>The policy is designed so that the improvement is measurable using the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/statutory-biodiversity-metric-tools-and-guides">statutory biodiversity metric</a>. This is a calculation tool which assigns numerical values (“units”) to habitats based on their size, type and ecological condition. A small lawn might be one unit, while a small patch of woodland could be 16 units.</p>
<p>Before the bulldozers arrive, developers will need to take stock of the units provided by their on-site habitats. When the work is completed, there will need to be at least 10% more units than there were to begin with.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575674/original/file-20240214-28-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Large building under construction in woods" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575674/original/file-20240214-28-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575674/original/file-20240214-28-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575674/original/file-20240214-28-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575674/original/file-20240214-28-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575674/original/file-20240214-28-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575674/original/file-20240214-28-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575674/original/file-20240214-28-i3yvxo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Any trees chopped down will have to be replaced.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/construction-large-multistorey-building-on-hill-2149553629">Armands Photography</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This should be achieved, firstly, by avoiding damage to the existing habitats as much as possible. But some harms are inevitable, and these will need to be compensated for – both by improving the quality of the remaining habitats, and by creating new habitats.</p>
<p>Habitats created in the same local authority as the damaged sites are awarded more units, reflecting a preference for keeping biodiversity local to the habitats and people affected by the development. In practice, this means the net gain rules generally promote more grassland, ponds, hedgerows and other natural habitats within developments. When on-site habitats are not enough to meet the 10% requirement, then off-site gains (“offsets”) can be purchased.</p>
<p>It is hoped that the developers’ demand for offsets will drive investment into landowners and <a href="https://www.local.gov.uk/pas/environment/biodiversity-net-gain-local-authorities/biodiversity-net-gain-faqs-frequently-asked#:%7E:text=Habitat%20banking%20is%20an%20approach,is%20an%20ecologically%20beneficial%20approach.">habitat banks</a> to do large nature recovery projects. This could allow, for example, the creation of wildflower meadows to offset the environmental harms caused by a new housing development.</p>
<p>Researchers have learned a lot about the outcomes of biodiversity net gain from studying councils such as West Oxfordshire and Cornwall, where equivalent commitments were adopted early. But based on this experience, academics and ecologists are still concerned about several key gaps in the policy.</p>
<h2>Is it delivering for wildlife?</h2>
<p>A key concern is that the metric used to score biodiversity may not work in the best interests of wildlife – <a href="https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/6667/">particularly insects</a>. The metric is intended to be a practical proxy for biodiversity, by assessing and scoring different habitat features. However, it assigns a low score to grasslands with nettles, ragwort, thistles and diverse mosaics of scrub and bare earth, which support a wealth of insect species. </p>
<p>Under the net gain policy, these habitats are penalised in favour of tidy grasslands that may have plenty of flowers but lack the other components necessary to sustain flourishing insect populations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575676/original/file-20240214-24-n84lml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Red butterfly, yellow flowers" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575676/original/file-20240214-24-n84lml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575676/original/file-20240214-24-n84lml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575676/original/file-20240214-24-n84lml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575676/original/file-20240214-24-n84lml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575676/original/file-20240214-24-n84lml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575676/original/file-20240214-24-n84lml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575676/original/file-20240214-24-n84lml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ragwort (the yellow flower) attracts lots of insects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/peacock-butterfly-sitting-on-yellow-ragwort-1455209468">Alex Manders / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not only will habitats potentially be worse for wildlife, but they will also be smaller, as our team’s recent research found that biodiversity net gain was associated with a <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.14198">reduction in the area of open greenspace</a>. This is because the metric allows large “poor” quality habitats to be traded for small “good” ones. </p>
<p>We also found the metric is so flexible that most large developments can meet their entire 10% commitment within the development footprint. This reduces the demand for offsets, and hence the private investment that could be going into large <a href="https://www.naturerecovery.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/BNG-report-final-29-June-2023.pdf">nature recovery projects</a>.</p>
<h2>How will it be enforced?</h2>
<p>Biodiversity net gain also allows developers to effectively trade existing habitats for promised future habitats. This is a big risk. For this trading system to work, it needs to be well monitored and governed, or else developers will have little incentive to actually create those new habitats.</p>
<p>Habitats promised on site – new ponds, lawns and so on – are at particular risk, as there are limited mechanisms to tackle non-compliance. Our team has previously estimated a quarter of habitat units promised under net gain regulations could be unmonitored and <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.14198">effectively unenforced</a>.</p>
<p>In response to these challenges, the government has <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/biodiversity-net-gain-moves-a-step-closer-with-more-funding">increased funding</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/draft-biodiversity-net-gain-planning-practice-guidance">powers</a> for local planning authorities. However, there are still concerns that this won’t be enough to monitor habitats over 30 years and act against noncompliance.</p>
<p>There are also challenges with ensuring that habitats in the built environment have benefits for wildlife. This includes residential gardens and public-use grasslands which count toward the net gain requirement. Both will be well used by people and pets, reducing their wildlife value. For gardens, it is not yet clear how their wildlife value will be maintained and not lost to artificial grass, decking or concrete slabs.</p>
<p>As developers and planners get used to biodiversity net gain, we hope to see these gaps addressed in further policy tweaks. Biodiversity net gain is an exciting, ambitious policy, and we want it to achieve its full potential.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Duffus receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council NE/S007474/1 Oxford-NERC Doctoral Training Partnership in Environmental Research and an Oxford-Reuben Scholarship.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophus zu Ermgassen receives funding from the European Commission via EU Horizon 2020 project SUPERB (Systemic Solutions for Upscaling of Urgent Ecosystem Restoration for Forest Related Biodiversity)</span></em></p>
England’s new ‘biodiversity net gain’ policy is ambitious, but researchers have identified flaws and loopholes.
Natalie Duffus, PhD Candidate, Conservation Policy, University of Oxford
Sophus zu Ermgassen, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Oxford
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221874
2024-01-30T19:06:30Z
2024-01-30T19:06:30Z
Renewable projects are getting built faster – but there’s even more need for speed
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572066/original/file-20240130-23-glcujk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C8%2C5530%2C3102&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>How long does it take to build a solar or wind farm? It’s a simple question with wide implications. To reach our ambitious 82% renewable energy target by 2030, we have to build many new projects – and start them soon. </p>
<p>In 2022, renewables hit a new high of 36% of Australia’s total electricity production, double that of 2017. That’s good – but there’s a long way to go. </p>
<p>Hitting the national target <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-staggering-numbers-behind-australias-82-per-cent-renewables-target/">will require</a> building about 40 wind turbines (7 megawatts) every month, and 22,000 solar panels (500 watt) every day. </p>
<p>At the start of the year, climate minister Chris Bowen called on all levels of Australian government to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/get-to-yes-or-no-as-quickly-as-possible-bowen-wants-fast-decisions-on-renewables-20240111-p5ewmj.html">speed up planning decisions</a> for renewable energy projects.</p>
<p>Reaching our target depends on one little-researched factor: completion time. </p>
<p>Solar and wind projects are built much faster than large fossil-energy plants. But the pre-construction approval process can be complex and slow projects down. In <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324000458?via%3Dihub">new research</a>, my colleague and I found completion times have fallen significantly in recent years. But we need to go even faster to achieve the 2030 target. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/renewables-are-cheaper-than-ever-yet-fossil-fuel-use-is-still-growing-heres-why-213428">Renewables are cheaper than ever yet fossil fuel use is still growing – here’s why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How long does it take to complete renewable energy projects?</h2>
<p>Very few studies have explored renewable energy lead times across a group of renewable projects in Australia or elsewhere. We investigated completion times for 170 onshore wind and solar projects completed in Australia between 2000 and 2023.</p>
<p>Using a <a href="https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/b572c8b3cc/1">data set we built</a>, we found welcome news: Australian renewable projects are being built significantly faster.</p>
<p>Taking an onshore wind farm from idea to reality now takes about 53 months. This is substantially faster than wind farms started before 2016, which took more than 88 months. Obtaining pre-construction approvals and planning took up most of that time.</p>
<p><iframe id="vhKJB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vhKJB/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Solar projects now take about 41 months. It used to be double that, at up to 83 months before 2011. </p>
<p><iframe id="BHLhR" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BHLhR/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Overall, there has been a decrease in solar lead times. Due to recent regulatory changes, the time taken for the construction and final stages has increased from 18 months to 21 months.</p>
<h2>What does it take to build a solar or wind farm?</h2>
<p>We break project lead times down into three stages: </p>
<p><strong>1. Pre-construction</strong> – the developer designs the project and seeks approvals </p>
<p><strong>2. Building and connecting</strong> – the time between starting construction and connecting to the grid to supply energy for the first time </p>
<p><strong>3. Getting commissioned</strong> – this final stage involves obtaining a <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/system-operations/generator-performance-standards">performance standard</a> from the Australian Energy Market Operator. Essentially, a new renewable plant has to be able to perform as expected and pass a series of tests. In our study, this stage starts at the time of first generation and finishes when a site generates at least 80% of its total capacity.</p>
<h2>Why can lead times differ?</h2>
<p>Passing through all three stages can be smooth – or fraught. While build times are improving, some projects can get stuck in development for years, making it seem harder than it is.</p>
<p>Delays can come from seeking approvals from multiple authorities and difficulties in accessing and connecting to the grid.</p>
<p>As lead times are rarely tracked across a large number of projects, outliers can skew how long we expect things take to complete. These outliers can get a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-18/woakwine-limestone-coast-wind-farm-delay-decade-after-approval/102361318">lot of publicity</a>. </p>
<p>Even when lead times are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122563">monitored and compared</a>, the raw data isn’t made public. A renewable energy pipeline database should be public and provide historical examples for comparison. It could learn from the <a href="https://infrastructurepipeline.org/">Australia and New Zealand Infrastructure Pipeline</a> and should track and compare lead times.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-hit-82-renewables-in-8-years-we-need-skilled-workers-and-labour-markets-are-already-overstretched-188811">To hit 82% renewables in 8 years, we need skilled workers – and labour markets are already overstretched</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How did development speed up?</h2>
<p>It wasn’t a single policy or process change that drove these faster build times. But the improvements in lead times were driven by faster pre-construction planning and approval stages.</p>
<p>We found clear evidence some states are faster than others. South Australia – Australia’s top renewable state – had notably lower pre-construction lead times for both wind and solar, likely due to streamlined approvals. We found some evidence of fast approvals for solar in Victoria.</p>
<p>Changes in project ownership occurred often (38% of projects) but this had little impact on how long they took to complete.</p>
<p>One issue that has increased lead times in Australia was a 2017 change to how renewables are tested, introduced as a response to the South Australia <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/publications/reports/compliance/investigation-report-south-australias-2016-state-wide-blackout">statewide blackout</a> of 2016. One aspect of this – the controversial “do no harm” system strength assessment – has <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/aemc-dumps-do-no-harm-rule-to-end-chaotic-response-to-system-strength-issues/">since been removed</a>. </p>
<p>These changes added an average of three months of delay for projects commencing construction after 2017. </p>
<h2>We can go faster still</h2>
<p>Even though Australian renewable lead times have shortened significantly since 2010, we should do more. After all, there are now only 71 months until 2030, when Australia’s renewables targets must be met. </p>
<p>Government approvals could be sped up if renewable developers can clearly see the steps to follow and deal with one central agency. All authorities involved should have maximum response times for key stages of the approval process. </p>
<p>Suitable projects located close to existing projects could also be assessed as expansions and not new developments. This would notably streamline the process. Authorities are already allowing developers to do this when approving grid-scale batteries to be installed near solar farms. </p>
<h2>Why do we need this data?</h2>
<p>If you’re a renewable energy developer, it’s vitally important to know how long it normally takes to get a project up and running. It’s also a key piece of data for investors and policymakers. </p>
<p>That’s why we have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107337">provided clear detail</a> of our data collection technique so it can be used by researchers, consultants, and government employees. Our data set is also <a href="https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/b572c8b3cc/1">available for download</a>.</p>
<p>Is it still possible to hit 82% renewable energy by 2030? Yes – but based on our lead-time estimates, only if most projects start their planning phase in the next couple of years. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-is-long-and-time-is-short-but-australias-pace-towards-net-zero-is-quickening-214570">The road is long and time is short, but Australia's pace towards net zero is quickening</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Longden receives funding from James Martin Institute for Public Policy. He is the Secretary of the NSW branch of the Economic Society of Australia and a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions (ICEDS), Australian National University (ANU). </span></em></p>
We’re getting faster at building renewables – but we’ll have to speed up even more to reach our 2030 target of 82% clean energy
Thomas Longden, Senior Researcher, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/217598
2023-11-21T15:13:18Z
2023-11-21T15:13:18Z
Ghana: Akosombo Dam disaster reveals a history of negligence that continues to this day
<p>Recent <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/akosombo-dam-spillage-evidence-climate-pressures-ghana-thecophq-9ceye/">heavy downpours </a>in the Lower Volta area of Ghana led to the <a href="https://www.myjoyonline.com/akosombo-dam-spillage-we-didnt-sleep-on-duty-vra-absolves-itself-of-blame/">worst flooding</a> in the region’s history. The flooding was caused by a <a href="https://www.vra.com/media/2023/Controlled-Spillage-from-the-Akosombo-Dam-and-Kpong-Dam.php">spillage</a> (a deliberate release of water) from the Akosombo Dam, the country’s biggest hydroelectric dam. Over <a href="https://www.ghanaiantimes.com.gh/akosombo-spillage-26000-residents-displaced-by-floods-8000-victims-rescued-inter-ministerial-cttee-tours-affected-areas/">26,000 people</a> were displaced. No deaths have been officially announced. The last recorded spillage was in 2010.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.vra.com/about_us/profile.php">Volta River Authority</a>, the state agency that manages the Akosombo Dam, opened the flood gates to release pressure on the dam after unusually high rainfall. By September, Volta Lake, the vast, 400km-long reservoir behind Akosombo Dam, had been filled to capacity. A month after the spillage started, communities along the Volta River were severely affected by the excess water. </p>
<p>Local residents fled to safety, leaving behind most of their belongings. Farms were submerged and crops destroyed. The inventory of stores and businesses in low-lying areas suffered extensive damage. </p>
<p>The director of the disaster management organisation was <a href="https://gna.org.gh/2023/10/flood-in-most-districts-not-due-to-vra-spillage-nadmo/">quoted</a> as saying that the floods were caused by heavy rains in the Volta catchment basin. Climate change and global warming, he explained, were responsible for all the water coming down the Volta. </p>
<p>Other factors are relevant too to understand this crisis. Based on my <a href="https://iupress.org/9780253059956/a-dam-for-africa/">knowledge of the area</a> as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=FY41aRUAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">historian</a> who has studied the Akosombo Dam and its impact on the lives of the people in the Lower Volta, I would attribute the extent of the calamity to two additional factors. </p>
<p>One is the ecological and economic changes brought by the construction of the Akosombo Dam. The areas affected by the flooding have been populated by farmers who settled there after they could no longer farm and fish elsewhere in the Lower Volta once the dam was built. The second is the failings of the Volta River Authority which manages the dam.</p>
<h2>The history</h2>
<p>The Lower Volta lies below the country’s two large hydroelectric dams, Akosombo, <a href="https://newafricanmagazine.com/16321/">completed</a> in 1965, and <a href="https://dbpedia.org/page/Kpong_Dam">Kpong</a>, completed in 1982.</p>
<p>The Volta River Project was Ghana’s largest development project. It included Akosombo Dam and an aluminum smelter as the dam’s main beneficiary. Even in the 1950s the planners of the project recognised that damming the Volta would have severe economic effects on the Lower Volta. There was also recognition that the project would lead to major ecological changes.</p>
<p>In its <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Volta_River_Project_Engineering_repo.html?id=cJSGAAAAIAAJ">1956 report</a>, the preparatory commission, which closely studied the Volta River Project, detailed the changes that were to come. </p>
<p>The first was that the construction of the dam would put an end to the ecological cycle that had nourished the Lower Volta for centuries. The area was accustomed to substantial annual floods that filled hundreds of small creeks, fertilised agricultural lands and created large fisheries. The cycle of annual floods enabled a prosperous agricultural society with farming, fishing and clam picking (which was largely done by women.)</p>
<p>During the dry season, men migrated upstream to fish, hunt, farm and build boats. </p>
<p>Once Akosombo was built, the annual floods stopped. The dam created a regulated river downstream.</p>
<p>The preparatory commission warned about the radical changes the dam would bring downstream. But policymakers and Ghana’s governments ignored them. </p>
<p>The impact on communities of the Lower Volta has been examined by researcher <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dzodzi-tsikata-365479">Dzodzi Tsikata</a> in her study <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Living-Shadow-Large-Dams-Communities/dp/9004141448">Living in the Shadow of the Large Dams</a>. In response to the dam being built many people migrated upstream and formed the fishing communities that now populate the shores of Volta Lake. Those who stayed and continued farming had to adapt their agricultural practices by planting in low-lying areas closer to the Volta River. </p>
<p>Subsequently, settlements expanded into the former flood plains along the river. These areas have now been inundated by the flooding caused by the spillage at Akosombo. </p>
<h2>Woeful response</h2>
<p>The current flooding raises the question of who is responsible and who must compensate those who have been affected. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://ghanalegal.com/laws_subdomain/acts/id/72/volta-river-development-act/">1961 Volta River Development Act (Act 46)</a>, the Volta River Authority has a statutory responsibility to prevent Volta Lake from rising to a height of 85.3 metres above sea level and cresting the dam. </p>
<p>In addition, the Volta River Authority should prevent the “flow of water past the dam” from causing “flooding downstream from dam above the levels which were normal” prior to the construction of Akosombo. </p>
<p>Finally, the authority has to “take reasonable measures to give warning of possible flooding from the lake or from the River Volta downstream from the dam.” </p>
<p>The Volta River Authority preserved the integrity of the Akosombo Dam by opening the floodgates and spilling the lake’s excess water. But it failed in its other tasks. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>It did not maintain an unoccupied flood zone which could absorb the excess water. </p></li>
<li><p>It failed to give people a timely warning to evacuate. The managers of the dam organised a simulation exercise for surrounding communities in May 2023.</p></li>
<li><p>It did not help people in the flood zones to move out of danger with their belongings.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In my view, the Volta River Authority, and by extension the Ghanaian state, have a moral obligation to compensate the people affected by the spillage and the subsequent floods. </p>
<p>Although the authority has income through the sale of electricity, it <a href="https://www.vra.com/resources/annual_reports/2022%20VRA%20Group%20Audited%20Annual%20Reports%20and%20Financial%20Statements.pdf">operated at a loss</a> in 2022, due to increased administrative expenses triggered by inflation. The Ghanaian state is also <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/10/5/lack-of-safety-nets-hurt-ghanas-most-vulnerable-as-economic-woes-deepen">facing deficits</a>. So there is little certainty about whether the residents of the Lower Volta will receive compensation. </p>
<p>One would hope that the Volta River Authority and the Ghanaian state would finally address some of the historical injustice experienced by the communities in the Lower Volta since the early 1960s.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217598/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephan Miescher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Communities along the bank of the dam have been victims of injustice since the early 1960s.
Stephan Miescher, Professor of History, University of California, Santa Barbara
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/208347
2023-07-25T20:32:27Z
2023-07-25T20:32:27Z
How Canada’s first national cycling map will benefit both riders and public planners
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534702/original/file-20230628-17-it0n73.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C1280%2C841&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With more and more Canadians cycling, it is crucial we have up-to-date information on what cycling infrastructure exists and where to find it.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Callista Ottoni)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/how-canadas-first-national-cycling-map-will-benefit-both-riders-and-public-planners" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Cycling in Canada has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2021.1914900">experiencing a great boom in recent years</a> and a national map of cycling infrastructure is critical to allow Canadians to determine where they have access to safe and comfortable facilities and routes. </p>
<p>Yet, there has historically been no consistent and complete way to measure or communicate cycling infrastructure. Until now: <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=c6d2917c4a7d4fb4a8e7a615369b68d5">Canada’s first national cycling map</a>.</p>
<p>In 2019, we developed the <a href="https://doi.org/10.24095/hpcdp.40.9.04">Canadian Bikeway Comfort and Safety Classification system (Can-BICS)</a> to classify cycling infrastructure by comfort and safety. Low comfort infrastructure is painted bike lanes, medium comfort is multi-use paths and high comfort are cycle tracks, bike-only paths, or local street bikeways. </p>
<p>We developed Can-BICS using the most current infrastructure design guides and cycling safety evidence. The same <a href="https://www.tac-atc.ca/en/publications-and-resources/geometric-design-guide-canadian-roads">design guides</a> are often used by city staff to develop cycling infrastructure.</p>
<p>The Can-BICS project not only provides a useful tool for Canadian cyclists, it also provides a clear window into the current state of Canadian cycling infrastructure.</p>
<h2>How we built a national dataset</h2>
<p>As researchers specializing in the links between the built environment and cycling, we often found ourselves piecing together datasets from different Canadian cities. Cycling infrastructure projects are typically co-ordinated by individual municipal or regional governments, with data held locally. For many projects, it’s too time consuming to compile data shared independently by multiple cities.</p>
<p>Another issue was that complete and up-to-date data are not even available for all municipalities in Canada. </p>
<p>While many larger cities may have staff dedicated to keeping their maps and databases up to date, other communities do not have the same capacity. Further complicating matters is the inconsistent use of terminology for bicycle facilities. For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.24095/hpcdp.40.9.04">we found over 100 (often overlapping) terms</a> in use in different cities across Canada. </p>
<p>And importantly, not all bike facilities are equal in comfort and safety. A national map needs to indicate different types of facilities, as not everyone is willing to cycle alongside motor vehicles. </p>
<p>To obtain infrastructure data that was consistent across Canada, we decided to use <a href="https://openstreetmap.org">OpenStreetMap</a> (OSM) — a crowdsourced map of the world. Like a Wikipedia for maps, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/8/5/232">OSM is constantly being updated and improved for accuracy for commercial interests and by data enthusiasts around the world</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/23998083231159905">We developed algorithms that apply the Can-BICS classification to the OSM data</a>. Using Google Street View, we checked over two thousand reference points from OSM for classification accuracy and bias. These points were taken from five small, five medium and five large cities. We then used these algorithms to classify cycling infrastructure across Canada. </p>
<p>The result is the <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=c6d2917c4a7d4fb4a8e7a615369b68d5">first-ever national dataset of cycling infrastructure in Canada</a>.</p>
<h2>Cycling infrastructure mapped across Canada</h2>
<p>With the national dataset in place, we identified nearly 23,000 km of cycling infrastructure meeting Can-BICS standards across Canada. </p>
<p>However, over twice this distance (49,000 km) did not meet the safety and comfort standards. These might include gravel paths, suggested cycling routes, quiet residential streets with no specific cycling supports or sharrows on busy roads. (Sharrows are bike decals painted on the road surface to indicate that cycling is allowed, but there is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijtst.2018.12.003">no evidence that they improve safety or preference for cyclists</a>.)</p>
<p>We found that in Canada, multi-use paths are the most common infrastructure type by length (16.6 per cent of all cycling infrastructure detected), followed by painted bike lanes (11 per cent). High-comfort infrastructure (cycle tracks, bike-only paths and local street bikeways) made up only 4.3 per cent of all detected cycling infrastructure.</p>
<p>Our results suggest that there is work to be done to support Canadians who are ready to make the switch to riding a bicycle. Cities aspire to meet climate goals and improve healthy transportation options for their residents. Yet, many Canadians are still without access to safe and comfortable options for cycling, especially in small- and medium-sized cities. </p>
<h2>Harnessing data</h2>
<p>The national cycling infrastructure dataset can support local, regional and federal governments in deciding where to invest in cycling infrastructure. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-get-more-women-on-bikes-better-biking-infrastructure-designed-by-women-202147">How to get more women on bikes? Better biking infrastructure, designed by women</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=c6d2917c4a7d4fb4a8e7a615369b68d5">dataset is open</a> for use by other researchers and planning practitioners interested in relating cycling infrastructure to other nationally available metrics such as census data. International researchers may be interested in our methodology to develop datasets of cycling infrastructure in their own jurisdictions. </p>
<p>We intend this dataset to become a reliable tool to facilitate comparison between cities. With the open code, it could be updated annually. This would allow users to monitor investments in high-quality cycling infrastructure over time.</p>
<p>Our work provides the first national map of cycling infrastructure available to Canadians. It allows researchers and practitioners to determine how individual infrastructure projects fit into the national landscape, determine gaps in the existing conditions and work to ensure safe and comfortable cycling is an option for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meghan Winters has received funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada and Canadian Institutes of Health Research for this work. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Ferster and Karen Laberee do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Cycling in Canada has been experiencing a great boom in recent years. Yet, there was no consistent and complete way to measure cycling infrastructure, until now.
Meghan Winters, Professor, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University
Colin Ferster, Research assistant, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University
Karen Laberee, Research manager, CHATR lab, Simon Fraser University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/207779
2023-06-29T12:17:01Z
2023-06-29T12:17:01Z
Disasters like bridge collapses put transportation agencies’ emergency plans to the test
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584441/original/file-20240326-18-k42fw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C7%2C5150%2C3193&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A container ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on March 26, 2024, collapsing a section of the bridge. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MarylandBridgeCollapse/3ab19a4aa7274ec49065520bb79aa9ea/photo">AP Photo/Steve Ruark</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>A container ship <a href="https://apnews.com/article/baltimore-bridge-collapse-53169b379820032f832de4016c655d1b">rammed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore</a> around 1:30 a.m. on March 26, 2024, causing a portion of the bridge to collapse into Baltimore Harbor. Officials called the event a mass casualty and were searching for people in the waters of the busy port.</em> </p>
<p><em>This event occurred less than a year after <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2023/06/11/bridge-collapse-philadelphia-interstate-95/">a portion of Interstate 95 collapsed</a> in north Philadelphia during a truck fire. That disaster was initially expected to snarl traffic for months, but a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/06/23/i-95-bridge-reopening-friday/70349844007/">temporary six-lane roadway</a> was constructed in 12 days to serve motorists while a permanent overpass was rebuilt.</em></p>
<p><em>U.S. cities often face similar challenges when <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/memphis-cracked-i-40-bridge-creates-headache-traffic-shipping-n1267187">routine wear and tear</a>, <a href="https://abc7news.com/loma-prieta-quake-earthquake-when-was-magnitude/5605965/">natural disasters</a> or major accidents damage roads and bridges. Transportation engineer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RxdHmbMAAAAJ&hl=en">Lee D. Han</a> explains how planners, transit agencies and city governments anticipate and manage these disruptions.</em></p>
<h2>How do agencies plan for disruptions like this?</h2>
<p>Planning is a central mission for state and metropolitan transportation agencies. </p>
<p>Traditional long-term planning focuses on anticipating and preparing for growing and shifting transportation demand patterns. These changes are driven by regional and national economic and population trends. </p>
<p>Shorter-term planning is about ensuring mobility and safety during service disruptions. These events can include construction, major scheduled events like <a href="https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/bonnaroo-traffic-tdot-prepares-for-traffic-in-manchester/">music festivals</a>, traffic incidents such as crashes and hazardous material spills, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2007)133:1(3)">emergency evacuations</a>, and events like the bridge collapse in Baltimore.</p>
<p>Agencies have limited resources, so they typically set priorities based on how likely a given scenario is, its potential adverse effects and the countermeasures that officials have available. </p>
<p>For bridges, the <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/">Federal Highway Administration</a> sets standards and requires states to carry out periodic inspections. In addition, agencies develop a detouring plan for each bridge in case of a structural failure or service disruption. In Baltimore, Key Bridge traffic will be <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/travel-around-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-baltimore-traffic/">routed through two tunnels</a> that pass under the harbor, but trucks carrying hazardous materials will have to take longer detours.</p>
<p>Major bridges, such as those at Mississippi River crossings, are crucial to the nation’s economy and security. They require significant planning, commitment and coordination between multiple agencies. There usually are multiple contingency plans in place to deal with immediate traffic control, incident response and field operations during longer-term bridge repair or reconstruction projects. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cEk9FhzgEO0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Francis Scott Key Bridge carries more than 30,000 vehicles daily past the Port of Baltimore, which serves many container ships daily.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What are some major challenges of rerouting traffic?</h2>
<p>Bridges are potential choke points in highway networks. When a bridge fails, traffic immediately stops and begins to flow elsewhere, even without a formal detouring plan. Transportation agencies need to build or find excess capacity before a bridge fails, so that the disrupted traffic has alternative routes. </p>
<p>This is usually manageable in major urban areas that have many parallel routes and bridges and built-in redundancy in their road networks. But for rural areas, failure of a major bridge can mean extra hours or even days of travel. </p>
<p>When traffic has to be rerouted off an interstate highway, it can cause safety and access problems. If large trucks are diverted to local streets that were not designed for such vehicles, they may get stuck on railroad tracks or in spaces too small for them to turn around. Heavy trucks can damage roads and bridges with low weight limits, and tall trucks may be too large to fit through low-clearance underpasses.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A highway at night, jammed with traffic on one side, the other side empty." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584443/original/file-20240326-30-m7kk1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Traffic is jammed on I-10 westbound amid evacuations ahead of Hurricane Delta on Oct. 8, 2020, in Lake Charles, Louisiana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/traffic-is-jammed-on-i-10-westbound-amid-evacuations-ahead-news-photo/1279252464">Mario Tama/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Successful rerouting requires a lot of coordination between agencies and jurisdictions. They may have to adjust road signal timing to deal with extra cars and changed traffic patterns. Local drivers may need to be directed away from these alternative routes to prevent major congestion. </p>
<p>It’s also important to communicate with navigation apps like <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/about/#!/">Google Maps</a> and <a href="https://www.waze.com/apps/">Waze</a>, which every driver has access to. Route choices that speed up individual trips may cause serious congestion if everyone decides to take the same alternate route and it doesn’t have enough capacity to handle the extra traffic.</p>
<h2>Can these events permanently change commuting and traffic patterns?</h2>
<p>In some cases, yes. Some repairs take months, such as the 2022 crack in the <a href="https://www.ualrpublicradio.org/local-regional-news/2022-02-21/how-authorities-missed-the-flaw-that-nearly-brought-down-the-i-40-bridge">I-40 Hernando De Soto Bridge</a> across the Mississippi River in Memphis, Tennessee. Others can stretch over years, such as the 2007 collapse of the <a href="https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=bridges">I-35W bridge</a> in Minneapolis. Some structures are rebuilt elsewhere, like the <a href="https://highways.dot.gov/public-roads/marchapril-1998/replacing-oaklands-cypress-freeway">I-880 Cypress Street viaduct</a> in Oakland, California, which collapsed during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. </p>
<p>While traffic is disrupted, motorists change their commute patterns or may even switch to other modes, such as buses or commuter rail. But after repairs are completed, even if some commuters don’t return to their old routes, new traffic soon will take advantage of the restored capacity. In the end, it’s hard to tell just by looking at usage whether commuters have changed their travel patterns permanently.</p>
<h2>Will money from the 2021 infrastructure bill reduce the risk of these kinds of events?</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, things do fall apart. U.S. infrastructure has been <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/">deteriorating for decades</a>. The American Road & Transportation Builders Association has estimated that <a href="https://artbabridgereport.org/">1 in 3 U.S. bridges need repair</a>. </p>
<p>At the current rate, we are unlikely to catch up to a state of good repair any time soon. But strategic investments like the 2021 infrastructure bill can likely help repair and address critical deterioration concerns for some high-risk bridges, roads, dams and other structures. </p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">This time-lapse video shows crews working around the clock to build a temporary roadway at the site of a collapsed overpass on Interstate 95 in north Philadelphia.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Can public transit fill part of the gap?</h2>
<p>Public transit may be able to fill the gap in several ways when key roadway links are destroyed or damaged.</p>
<p>Fixed-route rail transit services, such as Washington, D.C.’s Metro and commuter rail services in Chicago, typically have exclusive rights of way, which let them travel at higher speed than buses on surface streets. They also have high capacity that can be increased by adding more cars to each train or running trains more frequently. </p>
<p>If those systems’ routes are not disrupted due to something like a bridge collapse, they may be able to operate above their normal loads. Drivers can shift to transit as long as their trip origins and destinations are conveniently located near transit stations.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1772554130365550738"}"></div></p>
<p>Bus transit services don’t usually have exclusive rights of way or means to add extra carrying capacity per vehicle. But they have more flexibility to extend the service areas that they cover and connect otherwise non-walkable locales.</p>
<p>Coordinating use of various transit services and creatively adjusting bus lines could address some local travel needs, such as daily commutes and school and shopping trips. But local public transit services struggle to fill longer-distance gaps that extend beyond their service areas.</p>
<p>In major urban areas like Philadelphia that have large populations and have invested a lot in their transit systems, public transit could carry as much as 25% of daily commute trips. But for disruptions outside of major cities, such as a bridge collapse on an interstate highway in a rural area, public transit probably won’t have much of a role.</p>
<p>It’s also important to note that public transit services are for moving people. Freight shipments, which rely on trucks and other specialized vehicles, also need to get through or around disrupted zones. This often requires large commercial trucks either to use nearby local streets that weren’t designed for such big, heavy vehicles, or to make long-distance detours. That increases delays, pollution, safety risks and transportation costs that will eventually be passed on to consumers.</p>
<p><em>This is an update of an article originally published on June 29, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207779/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee D. Han receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Transportation. </span></em></p>
Transportation agencies plan for events like major bridge or highway collapses, but these events can disrupt traffic for months and affect residential neighborhoods as well as motorists.
Lee D. Han, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/205241
2023-05-29T13:09:42Z
2023-05-29T13:09:42Z
Accra’s market fires are devastating to informal traders - but they don’t trust or understand what they’re being told about managing risk
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525629/original/file-20230511-25-3t81fw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Market fires cause significant upheavals in the heavily informal Ghanaian economy</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ghana’s informal urban markets play a key role in the country’s economy. They <a href="https://www.wiego.org/sites/default/files/publications/file/WIEGO_Statistical_Brief_N21_0.pdf#page=2">employ more than 80%</a> of the people who work in the informal sector. They create livelihoods for traders, give urban residents access to essential household products, and add value to the culture of urban life.</p>
<p>Most market traders rely on credit from financial institutions, family and friends. Few have insurance. Without insurance, traders are left vulnerable to fire disasters, as urban markets are prone to fire outbreaks. </p>
<p>There are no statistics on the number of fires that have gutted markets in Ghana. That’s because the numbers fall under the Ghana National Fire Service’s classification of commercial fires. In 2022 there were <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Editorial-How-long-will-our-markets-continue-to-burn-while-we-ignore-the-real-signs-of-disasters-1736234">986 recorded commercial fires</a> in Ghana. </p>
<p>Urban market fires in the informal sector have received relatively little attention from local governments compared to flood disasters. And <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10708-021-10416-3">research</a> shows that local government authorities have failed to include fire risk in their urban management and development plans. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rhc3.12259">study</a> showed that risk communication is an important part of fire disaster management. Providing adequate information on fire risks is crucial in disaster prevention and response. But effective fire risk communication requires that authorities engage regularly with communities. In this case, traders. It must do so in a way that draws on community knowledge and practices.</p>
<h2>Risk communication in informal urban markets</h2>
<p>We did our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rhc3.12259">research</a> in the Makola and Nima markets in Accra, Ghana’s capital city. The <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sjtg.12167">Makola market</a> is large, having more than 35,000 traders and hawkers. It was established in 1924 and has grown in an unregulated way. The <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/psp.551">Nima market</a> is much smaller but has also grown haphazardly in a slum area. </p>
<p>The selection of these two markets enabled us to compare and understand socio-cultural factors affecting fire risk communication. </p>
<p>We combined interviews and focus group discussions with market women, executives of traders’ unions, and officials of the Ghana National Fire Service, the National Disaster Management Organisation, and the Regional Coordinating Council.</p>
<p>One of our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rhc3.12259">key findings</a> was that informal traders lose trust in the authorities when they fail to keep the promises made after previous fire disasters. This leads to traders’ distrust of risk communication information and actions by authorities.</p>
<p>In addition, fire risk communication by the authorities has been ineffective because of limited engagement between traders and city authorities. Traders told us that a continuous relationship with officials of the Accra Metropolitan Assembly would have helped reduce market fires. </p>
<p>There was also the issue of language, which hampered effective fire risk communication. Some traders said that most radio discussions on fire risks and hazards were conducted in languages they did not understand. For instance, in the Nima market, which is dominated by traders from northern Ghana and neighbouring west African countries, the traders mentioned that fire risk communication was delivered by traders’ association executives mostly in English and other southern languages. Traders weren’t proficient in these. Obviously, being unable to understand a particular language affects the ability to comprehend a message.</p>
<p>Religious beliefs also contributed to the way traders perceived fire risk communication messages. Some traders attributed fire outbreaks to the wrath of God on some traders due to perceived corrupt trading activities or punishment for moral failures.</p>
<h2>Top-down approach doesn’t work</h2>
<p>Our research shows that top-down risk communication involving authorities has been ineffective in reducing disasters. <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781315797809/cultures-disasters-fred-kr%C3%BCger-greg-bankoff-terry-cannon-lisa-schipper-benedikt-orlowski">Research</a> shows that communication is most effective when it involves authorities and residents at risk or affected by disasters. </p>
<p>This allows for the development of communication strategies that are embedded in the cultures and environments of the communities.</p>
<p>Each community’s culture contains strategies and practices for dealing with disasters. Tapping into this makes risk communication more effective and builds social resilience. It shapes a community’s perception of risks.</p>
<p>Our findings point to issues which city authorities and disaster management institutions should consider when planning communication on fire risks in informal urban markets. </p>
<p>Firstly, they should incorporate traders’ circumstances in all communication plans. They should also work within each market’s existing social structures, including traders’ associations. Trust is crucial - so disaster management agencies must respond to the needs of traders and, most importantly, live up to their responsibilities and promises. </p>
<p>To be effective, fire risk communication strategies must not only be supported by formal institutions such as government agencies but also be rooted in and sensitive to each market’s socio-cultural dynamics and networks. </p>
<p><em>Stephen Leonard Mensah, graduate research assistant at the University of Ghana, is a contributing author</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seth Asare Okyere is part of an international team of scholars receiving funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Fund (VREF)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louis Kusi Frimpong is part of an international team of scholars receiving funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Fund (VREF)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Abunyewah and Stephen Kofi Diko do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Fire risk communication strategies must not only be supported by formal institutions such as government agencies but also be rooted in and sensitive to each market’s socio-cultural dynamics.
Seth Asare Okyere, Visiting Assistant Professor, University of Arizona
Louis Kusi Frimpong, Lecturer, University of Environment and Sustainable Development
Matthew Abunyewah, Research Fellow, The Australasian Centre for Resilience Implementation for Sustainable Communities, Charles Darwin University
Stephen Kofi Diko, Assistant Professor, University of Memphis
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/204153
2023-04-27T15:28:38Z
2023-04-27T15:28:38Z
How dirty old used cars from the US and Europe carry on polluting … in Africa – podcast
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521946/original/file-20230419-26-f2kde2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=164%2C203%2C6307%2C4104&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Used cars that get exported from places like Europe, Japan and the U.S. are most often shipped to countries in Africa where they are resold. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/second-hand-cars-are-seen-on-september-16-2022-on-display-news-photo/1243394733?adppopup=true">Yanick Folly/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The typical car will go for its last drive sometime between its <a href="https://www.aarp.org/auto/trends-technology/how-long-do-cars-last/">10th and 15th year on Earth</a>. At this point, the vast majority are sent to be recycled or sold for parts. But for a few autos, a second lease on life awaits, as a significant percentage are <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghana-wants-fewer-polluting-old-cars-on-the-road-but-its-going-about-it-the-wrong-way-198805">exported from richer nations to developing nations</a> for a few more years on the road. </p>
<p>In countries across Africa and Latin America, old used cars from places like the U.S. and Europe provide vital access to transportation to people who would otherwise be unable to afford their own vehicles. While this process extends the lives of these cars, the practice is not without problems, in particular with regards to pollution and passenger safety. </p>
<p>In this episode of The Conversation Weekly, we speak with two researchers about why richer countries export used cars, what impacts they have in developing nations and whether import restrictions are effectively stemming the rise in pollution and accidents caused by this practice.</p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/644912eb56fd8600110780cb" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-561" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/561/4fbbd099d631750693d02bac632430b71b37cd5f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ipjfrosAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">Paul Bledsoe</a> is adjunct professorial lecturer at the Center for Environmental Policy at the American University in the U.S., where he specializes in energy, natural resources and climate change.</p>
<p>He says that “the process of retiring still-functioning cars off the road is going to speed up as electric vehicles become cheaper to buy and operate. And so when that happens, you may see a huge influx of used combustion-engine vehicles hitting the secondary market.” Bledsoe is concerned that, without the adequate policies in place, developing nations could see pollution skyrocket over the next decade as a result.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ui5w_DoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Festival Godwin Boateng</a> is a research fellow at the Center for Sustainable Urban Development, at Columbia University in the U.S. He studies sustainable development in Africa through a postcolonial lens and has looked into the issue of old cars.</p>
<p>“Between 2015 and 2018 some 14 million used vehicles were exported from the European Union, Japan, and the U.S., with 40% of them ending up in African countries,” explains Boateng. “Just in Ghana, for every hundred vehicles on the road, 80 to 90 are used vehicles.”</p>
<p>While Festival recognized that used cars fill an important gap in providing transportation opportunities in Ghana, he says over 50% of used cars are over 15 years old. “So they tend to be really old and highly polluting. And to make matters waste, they tend to do modifications to these vehicles, which make them even more polluting.”</p>
<p>In an effort to combat the harms of old cars, in 2020, Ghana passed a new <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100384">law aiming to restrict the import of cars</a> that are more than 10 years old. With exports of old cars expected to increase as electric vehicles take over Western markets, policies like the law Ghana passed in 2020 may become more relevant.</p>
<p>Listen to the full episode of The Conversation Weekly to learn more about how old cars get to places like Ghana, the mixed bag of benefits and harms they have once they arrive and the ways to improve this situation.</p>
<hr>
<p>This episode was written and produced by Mend Mariwany, who is also the executive producer of The Conversation Weekly. Eloise Stevens does our sound design, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl.</p>
<p>You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/">theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. You can also subscribe to The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter">free daily email here</a>. A transcript of this episode will be available soon.</p>
<p>Listen to “The Conversation Weekly” via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a> or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204153/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Bledsoe consults for the Progressive Policy Institute, and is president of Bledsoe & Associates, LLC, a strategic public policy firm specializing in energy, natural resources and climate change, among other issues.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Festival Godwin Boateng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Older imported cars pose risks to motorists and spew pollution. Some countries, including Ghana, are taking steps to limit the harms of this piece of the vehicle life cycle.
Mend Mariwany, Producer, The Conversation Weekly, The Conversation Weekly Podcast
Daniel Merino, Associate Science Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/198805
2023-02-20T13:45:48Z
2023-02-20T13:45:48Z
Ghana wants fewer polluting old cars on the road. But it’s going about it the wrong way
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511175/original/file-20230220-14-678g79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most Ghanaian cars are imported as used vehicles.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Used vehicles contribute greatly to transport emissions, undermining public health and the environment. In the US, Europe and parts of Asia, <a href="https://www.kbb.com/car-news/cash-for-clunkers/">clunkers programmes</a> – exchanging older, polluting used vehicles for cash – are becoming a popular approach for reducing the vehicles’ socio-environmental harms. </p>
<p>Only so many of the vehicles in circulation are, however, exchanged and <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/used-car-exports-threaten-climate-goals/">destroyed or recycled</a>. A good number of them are exported to Africa and other low-income regions of the world <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/used-vehicles-get-second-life-africa-what-cost">for reuse</a>. </p>
<p>The practice, however, undermines the global sustainable development goal of moving towards safe-low emissions transport. In response, the <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/used-vehicles-get-second-life-africa-what-cost">UN Environment Programme</a> has called on used vehicle dependent countries to adopt and enforce strong vehicle regulations. These include complete bans and age caps on their importation. </p>
<p>Many African countries have responded to the call. For instance, the environment and energy ministers of the Economic Community of West African States have adopted <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/west-african-ministers-adopt-cleaner-fuels-and-vehicles-standards?_ga=2.142202098.1111196588.1676196655-125678246.1673592171">strict and comprehensive rules against used vehicle imports</a>.</p>
<p>This is encouraging, considering that Africa has long been a major destination for <a href="https://slocat.net/now-is-the-time-to-address-africas-used-vehicle-dependency-with-better-policies-ghanas-story/">used vehicles</a>. For instance, 40% of the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/11/12/figure-of-the-week-africas-used-vehicle-market-and-the-environment/">14 million used vehicles</a> that the European Union, Japan and the US exported between 2015 and 2018 went to African countries. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/2202">recent review of Ghana’s situation</a> suggests, however, that import restrictions on their own are unlikely to yield meaningful, sustained public health and environmental gains.</p>
<p>In fact, these measures can make things worse. They can encourage people to continue using old, polluting and unsafe vehicles. They can also drive the supply of used vehicles to the black market. Our research makes a case for tying used vehicle import bans to reforms in spatial planning, land use systems and transport investments. It makes sense to consider what is stimulating demand for the vehicles.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-ghana-relies-heavily-on-used-cars-194638">Why Ghana relies heavily on used cars</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Import reductions without public health gains</h2>
<p>Ghana’s policymakers’ go-to strategy for reducing used vehicle consumption is to impose bans or higher penalties on their import. For instance <a href="https://ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_3_No_20_Special_Issue_October_2012/8.pdf">in 1998</a>, they introduced a law to ban the import of all vehicles older than 10 years. Four years later, they replaced that law with penalties on the imports. </p>
<p>These policies did not translate into public health and environmental gains. Little to no change occurred in road injuries or vehicular pollution. For instance, <a href="https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/2202">in 1997</a>, Ghana’s road traffic crash injury per 100,000 people stood at 31.46. After the ban, the figure <a href="https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/2202">remained about the same</a>. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.lumes.lu.se/sites/lumes.lu.se/files/kanyoke_eric.pdf">study</a> found that during the ban, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter emissions even went up in the Accra-Tema area, where most of Ghana’s vehicles are concentrated. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198221000919">recent study</a> has also shown that such measures do not increase the purchase of cleaner, new vehicles – not just in Ghana, but Africa generally.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ghanas-road-traffic-problems-have-deep-and-spreading-roots-160303">Ghana's road traffic problems have deep and spreading roots</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Untangling the contradictions</h2>
<p>In sum, bans and higher penalties appear to result in declines in the quantity of registered used vehicle imports. But they don’t bring a shift towards new, safer, less polluting vehicles and sustained public health gains. </p>
<p>These outcomes are not surprising. First, by restricting used vehicle supply without making it easier to buy brand new ones, the import restrictions likely compelled people to keep really old vehicles on the roads. </p>
<p>It might also be that, contrary to official statistics, the import restrictions did not really reduce supply; they only redirected used vehicles to the black market. </p>
<p>To understand how these outcomes are possible, it helps to look at spatial planning, land use systems and transport investments in Ghana.</p>
<p>Ghanaian planning professionals and politicians continue to promote the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ghanas-road-traffic-problems-have-deep-and-spreading-roots-160303">spatial separation of work and other activities far from home</a>, compelling people to travel more. Road construction induces more spread-out land use and, hence, more travel. Yet, building roads <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/21481/Vehicle%20Popultaion%20and%20Growth%20Rate%2C%20Daniel%20Essel%2C%20Ministry%20of%20Transport%20Ghana.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">gets priority</a> over investing in user-oriented public transport. </p>
<p>The largely privately run, poorly regulated minibuses (<a href="https://www.irs-blog.com/2022/09/26/work-and-crime-labor-exploitation-police-corruption-overcrowded-bus-stations-and-transgressive-minibus-driving-on-ghanas-roads-f-g-boateng-k-ofori-dua-p-dwumah-and-j-b-forku/">popularly called “tro-tro”</a>) have stepped in to meet the demand for public transport. The trouble, however, is that the operators are focused on individual short-term profits. They do not have the capital for service improvements like fleet renewal or electrification. </p>
<p>The Government of Ghana and its “development partners” direct investments into <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21650020.2021.2000485">bus rapid transport projects which do not always work as planned</a>, leaving gaps. These conditions encourage the continued use of second-hand minibuses, which are often poorly maintained. Minibus users are exposed to discomfort, air pollution, poor safety and other problems. <a href="https://theconversation.com/blaming-poor-labour-conditions-in-ghanas-transport-sector-on-ride-hailing-companies-misses-the-deeper-issues-191020">Research</a> shows that the poor minibus experience adds to the factors that push people towards private cars in Ghana.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, income levels are generally low and auto loans are accessible to only a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19463130903561475">few high-income people</a>. These factors undermine demand for expensive brand new vehicles. </p>
<p>The bans and import penalties only set the regulatory bar–and often the customs bribes–higher. They do not address the conditions that make people need old vehicles. Neither do they offer ways to afford newer, safer, less polluting options. </p>
<p>These conditions direct demand and supply to the black market. Importers, often in cahoots with corrupt customs officials, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27563676?read-now=1&seq=24#page_scan_tab_contents">frequently manipulate the details of used vehicles and declare false information</a> to escape bans and penalties. Used vehicles escape official records and end up on the roads. </p>
<h2>Some ways out</h2>
<p>Ghana’s experience suggests that reducing used vehicle consumption and the related socio-environmental harms will require more than just restricting <em>supply</em> through bans. Measures that address <em>demand</em> are likely to be more effective. They can include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>spatial planning that reduces the need to travel</p></li>
<li><p>making public transport, walking and cycling safer, efficient and attractive </p></li>
<li><p>tax relief and financial support for new safer, low emission public transport vehicles</p></li>
<li><p>minibus electrification and investment in <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/electric-minibuses-take-off-in-nigeria/video-61541106">local electrification initiatives</a>.</p></li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198805/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Vehicle import restrictions on their own are unlikely to yield meaningful, sustained public health and environmental gains in Africa.
Festival Godwin Boateng, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Centre for Sustainable Urban Development, The Earth Institute, Columbia University
Jacqueline M Klopp, Research Scholar, Center for Sustainable Urban Development, Climate School, Columbia University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/192197
2023-02-05T08:07:30Z
2023-02-05T08:07:30Z
Nigeria and Ghana are prone to devastating floods - they could achieve a lot by working together
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504267/original/file-20230112-20-2v82ez.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A flooded street in Lagos, Nigeria</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many countries in Africa suffer from disasters annually, but the adverse effects are grossly under-reported compared with coverage of more developed nations. </p>
<p>The impact of these disasters is also more severe in developing countries because they have less capacity to adapt and cope.</p>
<p>Flooding is the most widespread and recurrent disaster worldwide. In 2021 alone, flooding caused 4,393 deaths and US$137.7 billion in <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/2021-global-natural-disaster-assessment-report#:%7E:text=Global%20%EF%AC%82ood%20disasters%20in%202021,disasters%20were%20the%20largest%2C%20reaching">direct economic losses</a>. Losses and deaths due to flooding have steadily increased over the years and will continue to rise if the current trajectory continues. In Africa, flooding is mostly caused by human factors. This includes poor spatial planning, lack of infrastructure and poor waste management. </p>
<p>The United Nations has <a href="https://www.undp.org/sustainable-development-goals?utm_source=EN&utm_medium=GSR&utm_content=US_UNDP_PaidSearch_Brand_English&utm_campaign=CENTRAL&c_src=CENTRAL&c_src2=GSR&gclid=Cj0KCQiA_P6dBhD1ARIsAAGI7HAUTNtuF7AODa0CoioiNuVNe9IOUDjIp58Cy11eDicCPnNi5WDSSO0aAsRxEALw_wcB">called</a> for global partnerships to achieve its sustainable development goals: no poverty, zero hunger, good health, quality education, sustainable cities and communities. Flooding has a direct negative impact on these goals. </p>
<p>In a recent <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15487733.2021.2004742">paper</a> I looked at how Ghana and Nigeria could work as partners on this issue. </p>
<p>These two West African countries are prone to flooding. Though they don’t share a common boundary, they face similar issues in managing flooding disasters. Both have acknowledged their risks and have welcomed disaster risk reduction initiatives. They have both signed the <a href="https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/what-sendai-framework">Sendai Framework for Partnership on Disaster Risk Reduction</a>.</p>
<p>My findings show a need to go back to the drawing board, given the severity and frequency of flooding, and to build capacity cooperatively. </p>
<p>The study identifies opportunities for cross-border cooperation geared towards finding solutions to problems that have similar root causes, especially among countries of similar profiles. </p>
<h2>The cases of Nigeria and Ghana</h2>
<p>Flooding in both Nigeria and Ghana is caused by a combination of two factors. The first is socio-political – unplanned urbanisation, inadequate drainage systems and waste management and poor physical planning. The second is changing climatic <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/west-africas-deadly-rainfall-in-2022-made-80-times-more-likely-by-climate-change/">factors</a> such as higher rainfall. </p>
<p>Nigeria is home to Africa’s largest population (over 200 million). A significant proportion of the population is vulnerable to flooding. Annual flooding causes displacements and deaths, though precise figures are lacking. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-floods-are-the-worst-in-a-decade-heres-how-people-try-to-cope-with-the-devastation-192781">Nigeria's floods are the worst in a decade. Here's how people try to cope with the devastation</a>
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<p>Little has been done by the authorities to mitigate the hazard. This is clear from the fact that the country doesn’t have a concrete policy on flooding or a national flood risk management framework. Addressing and reducing exposure to flood risk is listed as a national priority in the government’s disaster risk-management <a href="https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/NIGERIA_PDNA_PRINT_05_29_2013_WEB.pdf">agenda</a> but no significant action has been taken. </p>
<p>Yet <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20964129.2020.1791735">evidence</a> suggests the flooding in Nigeria can be controlled through a suitable risk management strategy and implementation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-in-nigeria-building-dams-and-planting-trees-among-steps-that-should-be-taken-to-curb-the-damage-192750">Floods in Nigeria: building dams and planting trees among steps that should be taken to curb the damage</a>
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<p>The absence of preventive action points to a lack of political will. </p>
<p>Another hindrance is a lack of co-ordination between bodies that are meant to deal with disasters. Take the National Emergency Management Agency, for instance. The law doesn’t give it enough power to ensure integration among the different institutions working in flood risk management and disaster risk reduction.</p>
<p>Ghana has similar problems. Authorities have been blamed for not doing enough to mitigate recurrent flooding. The country’s laws and policies concerned with flooding, like the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1573062X.2016.1176223">Blue Agenda</a> and the <a href="https://www.gwcl.com.gh/national_water_policy.pdf">National Water Policy</a>, have been <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jfr3.12664">criticised</a> as inadequate and poorly implemented. </p>
<p>The National Water Policy is the primary programme aimed at integrating water-resources management. It encompasses measures directed at mitigating floods via early warning and establishing buffer zones. The Blue Agenda focuses on development control, public education, provision of drainage, and flood-control initiatives in urban communities. </p>
<p>But these policies have failed to achieve the desired results of adequately managing flood risk. </p>
<h2>Collaboration offers a solution</h2>
<p>The similar underlying drivers of flooding in Nigeria and Ghana present an opportunity for collaboration in research and data sharing. This could be in the areas of:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>assessing risks </p></li>
<li><p>reporting procedures (perhaps involving citizen scientists) </p></li>
<li><p>monitoring and warning services. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Others include improving flood risk and hazard information dissemination and building capabilities for mitigation and sustainable response strategies. </p>
<p>The countries could also collaborate to collect better flood data. Research is key to providing hydrological data, modelling information, flood warning, risk analysis, simulation, forecasting and adaptation. </p>
<p>Funding such intensive research will be more expensive for the two countries if they do it individually. Cooperation and sharing costs could free up resources for putting plans into practice. </p>
<p>Finally, institutional tools in the form of policies and legislation for managing flooding are poorly defined and deficient in both countries. It is important to co-operatively share data on exposures, vulnerabilities, and hazards. Such data can inform flood-risk assessment and response and enable both countries to learn from each other and previous mistakes. </p>
<p>A framework that outlines how the countries will work together would help to avoid any problems in sharing knowledge. Successful cooperation could set the path for the involvement of other West African countries that suffer flooding to work together, as has been done among <a href="https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/13d0cc-eu-flood-directive/">some of the countries</a> in the European Union.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192197/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adaku Jane Echendu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The two West African countries can help each other avert flooding disasters.
Adaku Jane Echendu, Researcher, Queen's University, Ontario
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/198179
2023-01-31T18:50:54Z
2023-01-31T18:50:54Z
Accra is congested, but relocating Ghana’s capital is not the only option
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505824/original/file-20230123-22-yykqto.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Accra's population has doubled over the past decade</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Muntaka Chasant/Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Capital cities play an important role in the socio-economic development of every country. People generally move to cities where there are opportunities. </p>
<p>Accra, Ghana’s capital, demonstrates this pull effect – and the problems it can create, like <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Over-population-of-Accra-putting-pressure-on-resources-GSS-1364164">congestion</a> and development planning issues. </p>
<p>One of the consequences has been regular <a href="https://www.mwh.gov.gh/addressing-the-increasing-risk-of-perennial-flooding-across-the-country-a-shared-responsibility/">flooding</a>, which has claimed lives and property. Over the years, the city authorities have tried to decongest Accra, without success. The city is now <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Demolish-illegal-structures-on-waterways-Akufo-Addo-1546295">demolishing illegal structures</a>, especially those close to waterways. </p>
<p>Some people have suggested that Accra’s congestion problem could be solved if the capital were to be <a href="https://www.modernghana.com/news/1072846/relocate-ghanas-capital-from-accra-omanhene.html">moved</a> to another city. Others <a href="https://www.pulse.com.gh/news/local/moving-ghanas-capital-away-from-accra-will-be-expensive-minister/ps8jx0l">disagree</a>. </p>
<p>Our position in this ongoing debate is informed by a six-year-old <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19376812.2015.1134335">study</a> one of us conducted comparing Accra with Nigeria’s capital, Abuja. Nigeria moved its administrative capital out of Lagos to Abuja <a href="https://bscholarly.com/why-the-capital-of-nigeria-was-moved-from-lagos-to-abuja/">in 1991</a>. </p>
<p>The goal of the research was to make recommendations for the effective functioning of capital cities. We believe the findings are still relevant.</p>
<p>The study found that Accra was congested because too many facilities and services were concentrated in the city. We conclude that, instead of relocating the capital from Accra, its various roles could be shared among various regional capitals. Accra could keep its political role, but some of its facilities and services should be distributed around the country. </p>
<h2>Accra’s many functions</h2>
<p>Ghana’s capital city has multiple functions: educational, commercial, entertainment and administrative.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://www.4icu.org/gh/greater-accra/a-z/">educational centre</a>, Accra has about 40 tertiary institutions. The seat of government, parliament house and the supreme court of Ghana are also in Accra, giving it an administrative and political role. The major sporting activities in Ghana are soccer, athletics and boxing. The country’s only boxing arenas are in Accra. The city also has the Ohene Gyan Sports Stadium and the Olympic Stadium (under construction). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506053/original/file-20230124-13-ieb3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/506053/original/file-20230124-13-ieb3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506053/original/file-20230124-13-ieb3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506053/original/file-20230124-13-ieb3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506053/original/file-20230124-13-ieb3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506053/original/file-20230124-13-ieb3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/506053/original/file-20230124-13-ieb3gv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ghana’s population by region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Reputable research institutes such as Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research are located in Accra. The headquarters of major religious organisations – such as the Christian Council of Ghana and the Office of the National Chief Imam – are also located here. </p>
<p>Some facilities that could have been located in other cities are all concentrated in Accra. Overall, the city serves as the country’s commercial, manufacturing and communication centre. </p>
<p>This has attracted major private companies to locate their headquarters in the capital. Ghana Stock Exchange, the country’s principal facilitator of the development of the capital market, also has its headquarters in Accra. </p>
<p>The combination of its political role and all the other facilities and services in the city has attracted people from all parts of the country. According to the 2021 Population and Housing Census, the Greater Accra Region is the most populous region in Ghana, with a population of over <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/202109230279.html">5 million people</a>. The region, with a population density of 1,200 people per square kilometer, is also the <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1275577/population-density-by-region-in-ghana/">most densely populated</a> region in Ghana. </p>
<p>This density has led to traffic congestion and overcrowding. On average, traffic across the major highways in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area <a href="http://mlgrd.gov.gh/images/Ghana_Urban_Forum/er.pdf">grew</a> from 2.5% to 14.8% per annum. </p>
<p>The multi-functional nature of Accra has led to pressure on land resources which has also resulted in encroachment of green areas and wetlands. The result is that parts of the city are unsafe to live in. The perennial floods which claim human lives and destroy properties have been attributed to the city’s <a href="https://www.mwh.gov.gh/addressing-the-increasing-risk-of-perennial-flooding-across-the-country-a-shared-responsibility/">development and spatial planning problems</a>. </p>
<h2>Solutions</h2>
<p>Relocating capital cities does not necessarily solve the problem of congestion in the long term if the fundamental causes of the congestion are not addressed. For example, the relocation of Nigerian’s capital city to Abuja did not solve congestion in Lagos.</p>
<p>We argue that a more feasible option for Accra is to change the role of the city from a multi-functional role to a political role. </p>
<p>National policies should focus on de-concentration by relocating some of the facilities and services that are currently in the capital but do not require direct access to the executive. These may include the headquarters of some government institutions, nongovernmental organisations, universities and research institutes, religious organisations and private companies. </p>
<p>The relocation of the headquarters of the Ghana Cocoa Board from Accra, for example, could be taken into consideration as Accra is not a cocoa producing region. Such an institution could be moved to a place where cocoa is produced. </p>
<p>The headquarters of Ghana National Petroleum Corporation could be moved to the western region of Ghana, where oil is drilled. Universities located in Accra could be encouraged to establish branches in other parts of the country, thus reducing the number of students on the Accra campuses. This would help promote spatial equity in Ghana in terms of geographic access to university education. </p>
<p>There could be incentive packages for institutions to establish their headquarters outside the capital. Those in the capital could be charged a special congestion levy. Finally, there should be a conscious effort to give functional roles to all the 16 regional capitals in Ghana. The functional roles can include commercial capital, defence capital, entertainment capital and sports capital. The decentralisation of facilities and services would help distribute opportunities – and people – across the country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198179/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Accra could keep its political role while some of its other functions are distributed around the country.
Stephen Appiah Takyi, Senior Lecturer, Department of Planning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST)
Owusu Amponsah, Senior Lecturer, Department of Planning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST)
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/187325
2022-09-15T13:19:53Z
2022-09-15T13:19:53Z
Ontario’s Growth Plan is reducing housing affordability
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481355/original/file-20220826-6337-rqjw7l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=18%2C27%2C5988%2C3980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A building under construction in Toronto. According to Canada's national housing agency, Ontario needs to build 1.8 million new homes to alleviate the housing crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ontario-s-growth-plan-is-reducing-housing-affordability" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Few Ontario residents know how land use planning regulation shapes their physical environment, including where new housing is built, the size and type of buildings, and housing density. As a result, most people are only interested in the topic when a new housing project is proposed near their homes.</p>
<p>In reality, planning regulation has far-reaching influence on our lives, and especially on the housing crisis. It’s a primary reason for the high housing prices and rents in the Greater Golden Horseshoe — a massive region that is centred on Toronto and spans Southern Ontario.</p>
<p>Because of this, land use planning impacts certain parts of the population more than others, including the middle class, first-time house buyers, renters, <a href="https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1048&context=sociology_masrp">immigrants</a> and <a href="http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf">lower-income residents</a>.</p>
<p>Although few pay attention to it, the development, regulation and impact of land use planning has more to do with the average person than they realize. A sweeping reform could reduce housing and rent prices, at no cost to the public purse.</p>
<h2>The Growth Plan</h2>
<p>The planning system is often criticized as time-consuming, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/002795011824500111">overly bureaucratic</a>, <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/centre-urban-research-land-development/pdfs/CUR_Assessing_Affordable_Housing_Options_GTA.pdf">uncertain</a> and costly. In Ontario, <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/citizens-guide-land-use-planning">land use planning</a> is carried out by municipalities and shaped by provincial legislation.</p>
<p>But the Greater Golden Horseshoe has had an additional layer of bureaucracy in the form of a provincial planning policy called <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/mmah-place-to-grow-office-consolidation-en-2020-08-28.pdf">the Growth Plan</a>. This policy places restrictions on what parts of southern Ontario can be used for development and infrastructure via <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/citizens-guide-land-use-planning/planning-act">the Planning Act</a></p>
<p>The Growth Plan <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/growth-plan-greater-golden-horseshoe-2006">became law in 2006</a> under Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal government. Since then, it has been adapted by successive Ontario governments, <a href="https://ero.ontario.ca/notice/013-4504">most recently Doug Ford’s Conservative government</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map showing the Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Plan Area in southern Ontario" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483606/original/file-20220908-9735-ctxok4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483606/original/file-20220908-9735-ctxok4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483606/original/file-20220908-9735-ctxok4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483606/original/file-20220908-9735-ctxok4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483606/original/file-20220908-9735-ctxok4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483606/original/file-20220908-9735-ctxok4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483606/original/file-20220908-9735-ctxok4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing the Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Plan Area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2022)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Growth Plan represents an ambitious effort to shape how residents live, work and interact with one another with land use regulations. Ensuring a sufficient housing supply to improve affordability is just <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/place-grow-growth-plan-greater-golden-horseshoe">one of many objectives</a> the Growth Plan is intended to address.</p>
<p>Research shows more restrictive planning regimes result in higher housing prices. A 2017 study found that land use regulation in Auckland, New Zealand, could be <a href="https://thehub.swa.govt.nz/assets/documents/Impact_land_use_summary_110717.pdf">responsible for up to 56 per cent of an average house’s cost</a>. </p>
<p>Another study from California found that housing prices could <a href="https://realestate.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/LinWachter19_04042019.pdf">decline by about 25 per cent in Los Angeles</a> if its planning regulations were decreased to the levels similar in the least-regulated cities in California. Based on my own estimates, home prices in the Greater Golden Horseshoe could fall by a similar amount under a benign land use regulatory system.</p>
<h2>Supply and demand disparity</h2>
<p>While affordable housing is a stated goal of the Growth Plan, the interpretation and implementation of its policies will reduce housing affordability, not improve it. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, <a href="https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/blog/2022/canadas-housing-supply-shortage-restoring-affordability-2030">Ontario needs to build 1.8 million new homes</a> by 2030 to get housing affordability back to where it was in the early 2000s.</p>
<p>While most Greater Golden Horseshoe homebuyers undoubtedly <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/centre-urban-research-land-development/CUR_Preference_Homebuyers_Intending_Hombuyers_GTHA_June_2022.pdf">prefer ground-level homes</a>, the Growth Plan prioritizes higher-density forms of accommodation, instead of single-detached houses.</p>
<p>This disparity between housing demand and supply sets the stage for housing prices to increase even more in the coming years. The four regional municipalities, Durham, York, Peel and Halton, around Toronto all face a marked disparity over the coming three decades between housing planned and the market.</p>
<p>The supply of single-detached and semi-detached houses <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/centre-urban-research-land-development/CUR_Land_Needs_GGH_and_Missing_Middle_Aug.2022.pdf">will only be 25 per cent of the new housing</a>, compared to a demand of 50 per cent. </p>
<p>The reverse holds for apartments: 50 per cent of the new housing will be apartments, while the market demand is just 25 per cent. The demand and supply of townhouses will be similar, at 25 per cent of the new housing.</p>
<p>The sizeable shift from single-detached houses to apartments over the next 30 years is expected to happen under the current provincial government’s version of the Growth Plan passed in 2020. In <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/appendix_-_growth_plan_2017_-_oc-10242017.pdf">the earlier version of the Growth Plan</a> passed by the last Liberal government in 2017, even fewer ground-related homes would have been built in the future, resulting in even more stress on affordability.</p>
<h2>Countering adverse price impacts</h2>
<p>To counter the adverse price impacts of the Growth Plan, I have two proposals for the provincial government. First, municipalities must offset any planned reduction of single-detached and semi-detached houses below market demand with an equivalent number of “missing middle” housing.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/centre-urban-research-land-development/pdfs/TREB/CUR_Missing_Middle_Housing_Toronto.pdf">Missing middle housing</a> includes townhouses and low-rise apartments with four storeys or fewer, like stacked townhouses, and are the closest substitutes for single-detached houses. These should be added in existing urban areas (mainly single-detached neighbourhoods) and on vacant fringe lands. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of townhouses in Cabbagetown, Toronto" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481203/original/file-20220825-8254-u2cyue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481203/original/file-20220825-8254-u2cyue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481203/original/file-20220825-8254-u2cyue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481203/original/file-20220825-8254-u2cyue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481203/original/file-20220825-8254-u2cyue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481203/original/file-20220825-8254-u2cyue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481203/original/file-20220825-8254-u2cyue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Municipalities should ensure enough ‘missing middle’ housing, like townhouses, are built to offset the loss of single-detached and semi-detached houses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shuttestock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Second, the government should conduct an in-depth review of the land use planning regime to <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/centre-urban-research-land-development/pdfs/policycommentaries/CUR_Housing_Affordability_Policy_Recommendations.pdf">improve efficacy and minimize adverse impacts on housing affordability</a>, as was <a href="https://www.productivity.govt.nz/assets/Documents/0a784a22e2/Final-report.pdf">undertaken in New Zealand</a>. </p>
<p>What is needed is a sweeping overhaul to increase not only the numbers of new housing units built, but to accelerate approvals of all housing types, with particular attention paid to single-detached and missing middle housing.</p>
<p>Without these changes, housing costs will continue to rise and many <a href="https://www.thespec.com/news/ontario/2019/01/15/ontario-lowers-density-targets-critics-fear-a-return-to-sprawl.html">households will face longer commutes</a> as they move farther away from employment centres in search of less expensive single-detached houses and townhouses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187325/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Clayton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Ontario’s first Growth Plan won awards that recognized the province as a leader in the field. But since then, successive changes to the policy have sabotaged the original plan’s progress.
Frank Clayton, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, Toronto Metropolitan University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/186105
2022-07-28T12:24:09Z
2022-07-28T12:24:09Z
Debunking stereotypes about mobile homes could make them a new face of affordable housing
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476156/original/file-20220726-10345-2fj3mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3794%2C2514&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Saralake Estates Mobile Home Park in Sarasota, Florida.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/florida-sarasota-saralake-estates-mobile-home-park-news-photo/982645142">Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When you hear the words “trailer park” or “mobile home park,” what comes to mind? Crime? Poverty? Vulnerability to natural disasters? These negative images reflect the stigma, reinforced by popular culture, that many U.S. residents assign to manufactured home parks – the official name for these dwellings under <a href="https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/rmra/mhs/faqs#:%7E:text=HUD%20does%20not%20inspect%20homes,with%20your%20state's%20housing%20code.">federal standards adopted in 1976</a>.</p>
<p>Over 20 million Americans <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2022.2038238">live in manufactured housing</a> – more than in public housing and federally subsidized rental housing combined. Yet many people, including urban planners and affordable housing researchers, <a href="https://prosperitynow.org/blog/cost-and-quality-breaking-down-stigma-manufactured-housing">see manufactured housing parks as problems</a>. In contrast, we see them as part of the solution to housing crises. </p>
<p>We are urban planning scholars who study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RXZEj-YAAAAJ&hl=en">climate vulnerability</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.ca/citations?user=0LDWVWAAAAAJ&hl=en">community economic development</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NBCtqiIAAAAJ&hl=en">equity in urban land use</a>. Our research suggests that misguided stereotypes blind scholars and policymakers to the possibility that mobile homes can help address the affordable housing crisis and climate change. Here are some misperceptions about this widespread form of housing.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1544331516104392707"}"></div></p>
<h2>Stereotype 1: Manufactured housing is shoddy</h2>
<p>Many people think manufactured homes are poorly built, even though these structures, unlike site-built houses, have had to meet federal safety standards since 1976. These safety standards have been periodically updated, often in response to disasters. Today, new well-installed factory-built homes are comparable to site-built homes when it comes to <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/em/WinterSpring20/highlight1.html">standing up to wind, fire and other disaster threats</a>.</p>
<p>Compared to homes built on-site, manufactured housing costs half as much per square foot – partly because it’s easier, more predictable and cheaper to build homes in factories. Many quality problems associated with manufactured housing arise from home installation, park maintenance and infrastructure issues. No matter how well-built homes are, residents can suffer if they are installed on unstable foundations, or if park owners allow water, sewer or power utility infrastructure to crumble.</p>
<h2>Stereotype 2: Manufactured housing parks are always exploitative</h2>
<p>While many manufactured housing residents own their homes, they may not own the land the homes sit on. This can leave them at the mercy of predatory park owners and investors. Moving manufactured homes is difficult and expensive, despite the “mobile” label, so residents of manufactured home parks <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520295667/manufactured-insecurit">can’t easily relocate</a> when park owners allow conditions to deteriorate, raise rents or evict residents. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/glpwBfNAbPE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Residents of a Gunnison, Colorado, mobile home park fight a 70% lot fee increase by a new owner.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But there are alternatives. Residents at over 1,000 manufactured housing parks in the U.S. have <a href="https://mf.freddiemac.com/docs/dts_mhroc_report.pdf">jointly bought their land</a>, creating <a href="https://rocusa.org/">Resident Owned Communities</a>. </p>
<p>This cooperative model gives residents control over their homes and neighborhoods. Resident-owned parks <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/21/metro/manufactured-home-can-be-where-heart-is/">preserve affordability</a> and help residents address their own problems, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2021.2013284">vulnerability to climate-driven disasters</a>.</p>
<h2>Stereotype 3: Manufactured housing parks aren’t urban or dense</h2>
<p>Manufactured home parks are often dismissed as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/12/29/why-trailer-parks-are-all-over-rural-america-but-not-iowa/">rural and low-density</a>, and therefore irrelevant to urban housing needs. However, 61% of all manufactured housing is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2022.2038238">located in a metro area, and 8% is in urban centers</a>. </p>
<p>The density of these communities, typically eight to 15 homes per acre, is often greater than nearby neighborhoods. In Houston, for example, many manufactured housing parks are located in <a href="https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2021/10/07/mobile-home-parks-houston-study">suburban areas close to the central business district</a>. If anything, local zoning in many cities limits the density of manufactured housing parks. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476317/original/file-20220727-7627-rh9aec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Aerial view of a suburban neighborhood and an adjoining manufactured housing park." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476317/original/file-20220727-7627-rh9aec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476317/original/file-20220727-7627-rh9aec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476317/original/file-20220727-7627-rh9aec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476317/original/file-20220727-7627-rh9aec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476317/original/file-20220727-7627-rh9aec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476317/original/file-20220727-7627-rh9aec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476317/original/file-20220727-7627-rh9aec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Rancho La Mesa Mobile Home Park in Sunnyvale, California (right), is more densely developed than adjacent single-family residential neighborhoods (left).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google Earth</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Stereotype 4: Manufactured housing parks are uniquely disconnected</h2>
<p>Critics often assert that manufactured housing parks are disconnected from surrounding neighborhoods. In reality, this pattern applies to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01944369308975880">most U.S. residential neighborhoods built since World War II</a>, including gated communities and cul-de-sacs. Residents of these communities value the privacy, safety and neighborhood cohesion their street patterns provide. </p>
<p>Biased local <a href="https://www.codepublishing.com/CA/SantaClara/html/SantaClara18/SantaClara1824.html">zoning regulations</a> also frequently reinforce manufactured housing parks’ isolation by requiring them to be separated and hidden behind tall privacy fencing. Where fragmented street networks create problems for residents, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2005)131:4(246)">reduced walkability</a>, they can be <a href="https://retrofittingsuburbia.com/">retrofitted</a> by reconnecting streets. </p>
<h2>The real challenges</h2>
<p>While these stereotypes often don’t reflect reality, manufactured housing communities face real challenges.</p>
<p>Local governments and park owners often are eager to convert parks to what they describe as “higher and better uses,” which frequently means evicting residents for commercial development or more expensive housing. Private equity investors, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/27/us/mobile-home-park-ownership-costs.html">buying up manufactured housing parks</a>, which they view as reliably profitable investments. When owners redevelop parks, they can evict residents with little recourse. </p>
<p>Residents of manufactured home parks are also increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Biased zoning rules have forced many of these communities to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.05.001">locate on less desirable land</a>, including flood-prone sites, industrial areas and highway fringes. In a 2021 review, we found that 22% of manufactured housing parks across nine states were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2021.2013284">located within current 100-year floodplains</a> – zones with a 1% chance of flooding every year. </p>
<p>Manufactured housing is especially common in hurricane-prone regions like Florida, Louisiana and Texas. While updated building standards have substantially <a href="http://www.iawe.org/Proceedings/11ACWE/11ACWE-Hebert2.pdf">improved safety</a>, increasingly ferocious storms still <a href="https://par.nsf.gov/servlets/purl/10206043">pose a real threat</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476161/original/file-20220726-15-482v4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man walks past large puddles and manufactured homes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476161/original/file-20220726-15-482v4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476161/original/file-20220726-15-482v4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476161/original/file-20220726-15-482v4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476161/original/file-20220726-15-482v4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476161/original/file-20220726-15-482v4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476161/original/file-20220726-15-482v4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476161/original/file-20220726-15-482v4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Angel Flores checks the condition of friends’ manufactured homes on Sept. 17, 2018, in Kinston, North Carolina, three days after Hurricane Florence made landfall in the state.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/auto-mechanic-angel-flores-walks-past-flood-waters-as-he-news-photo/1034838886">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Aging manufactured home park infrastructure, including sewer, water and electricity systems, is highly vulnerable to extreme <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2020.1768574">heat</a>, <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/17-deaths-highlight-tornado-danger-to-mobile-homes/">wind</a>, drought, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000112">flooding</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-020-01340-2">wildfires</a>. And since residents typically have lower incomes, they have fewer resources to respond when extreme events strike. </p>
<h2>Manufactured housing, resilience and justice</h2>
<p>With economic, political and technical support, evidence shows that manufactured housing can overcome these challenges.</p>
<p>To date, <a href="https://www.nclc.org/images/pdf/manufactured_housing/cfed-purchase_guide.pdf">20 states</a> have adopted laws that help residents purchase the manufactured home parks where they live. These policies have helped <a href="https://www.rocusa.org/">ROC USA</a>, a nonprofit social venture, create a network of over 280 <a href="https://ncbaclusa.coop/what-is-a-cooperative/">cooperatively owned</a>, <a href="https://rocusa.org/market-rate-and-limited-equity-co-ops-explained/">limited-equity</a> resident-owned communities that are home to over 18,000 households.</p>
<p>ROC USA provides low-cost loans to resident cooperatives to buy land and make needed capital improvements such as upgrading water, sewer and electric systems. Their network of regional housing experts then works with communities for at least a decade to develop and sustain their ability to manage their parks. </p>
<p>Over three decades, no ROC USA community has ever defaulted on a loan or sold their park. A growing number have adopted climate-responsive measures, such as building storm shelters and community centers, upgrading drainage infrastructure and providing emergency post-storm tree clearance and other forms of mutual aid. Other resident-owned communities are investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency, <a href="https://rocusa.org/news/mascoma-meadows-is-first-n-h-roc-to-go-solar/">reducing greenhouse gas emissions and energy costs</a> for their residents.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476318/original/file-20220727-25-pbblvm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Manufactured homes facing a tree-lined street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476318/original/file-20220727-25-pbblvm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476318/original/file-20220727-25-pbblvm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476318/original/file-20220727-25-pbblvm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476318/original/file-20220727-25-pbblvm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476318/original/file-20220727-25-pbblvm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476318/original/file-20220727-25-pbblvm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/476318/original/file-20220727-25-pbblvm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rustic Pines in North Attleborough, Massachusetts, is a limited-equity resident-owned community for those over 55. Established in 2015, it is run by a democratically elected board.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ROC USA</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Policymakers are paying attention. The Biden administration’s 2022 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/16/president-biden-announces-new-actions-to-ease-the-burden-of-housing-costs/">housing plan</a> includes extensive support for manufactured housing parks. </p>
<p>California Gov. Gavin Newsom has called for <a href="https://nlihc.org/resource/california-governor-proposes-4-billion-affordable-housing-and-homelessness-programs">increasing state funding</a> to preserve manufactured housing parks as affordable housing. The U.S. Department of Energy recently adopted more ambitious <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-updates-mobile-home-efficiency-standards-lower-household-energy-bills">efficiency standards</a> to reduce energy costs for residents of manufactured housing. </p>
<p>In our view, these efforts should be coupled with legislation that protects manufactured housing park tenants and expands the limited-equity ROC model. Governments could enact laws that offer tenants opportunities to purchase their rental units and provide subsidized loans and grants to resident cooperatives. Decades of experience shows that resident ownership can transform manufactured home parks from sites of stigma and vulnerability into stable and resilient communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186105/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zachary Lamb receives funding from The Leventhal Center for Advanced Urbanism. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Spicer and Linda Shi do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Manufactured housing – the preferred name for what were once called mobile homes – has changed dramatically in recent decades. Three planning experts call for giving it a new look.
Zachary Lamb, Assistant Professor of City & Regional Planning, University of California, Berkeley
Jason Spicer, Assistant Professor of Geography and Planning, University of Toronto
Linda Shi, Assistant Professor of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/179987
2022-05-05T20:05:00Z
2022-05-05T20:05:00Z
Architect Christopher Alexander mined mathematics to find patterns for good living
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461355/original/file-20220504-16-8af3ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C1519%2C916&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Julian Sreet Inn, Shelter for the Homeless, in San Jose, Calif., designed by Christopher Alexander. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/">(David Ing/Flickr)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Architect and mathematician Christopher Alexander died at age 85 on March 17. </p>
<p>“The end of an era,” one of my colleagues remarked. She was perhaps referring to Alexander’s <a href="https://www.architecturalrecord.com/articles/15586-tribute-christopher-alexander-1936-2022">influential trajectory</a> of over 30 years at the University of California, Berkeley.</p>
<p>Obituaries about Alexander portrayed him as a fierce critic of modern architecture and chronicled his quest for buildings and cities that displayed qualities of <a href="https://www.ribaj.com/culture/christopher-alexander-obituary-1936-2022">warmth</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2022/mar/29/christopher-alexander-obituary">aliveness</a>.</p>
<p>Alongside the production of numerous papers, books and buildings, Alexander’s quest was marked by <a href="https://applied.math.utsa.edu/%7Eyxk833/Charles.html">acclaim from royalty</a>, <a href="http://www.katarxis3.com/Alexander_Eisenman_Debate.htm">architectural disputes</a> and being hailed as a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/arts/christopher-alexander-dead.html">countercultural hero</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780429264306-4/bewildered-form-maker-stands-alone-theodora-vardouli">My research</a> has explored how Alexander used mathematics to help designers tackle unwieldy design requirements.</p>
<h2>‘A Pattern Language’</h2>
<p>Alexander’s countercultural reputation mainly stemmed from <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/a-pattern-language-9780195019193"><em>A Pattern Language: Towns, Buildings, Construction</em></a>, which he co-authored with researchers from the <a href="https://www.patternlanguage.com/aims/intro-2.html">Center for Environmental Structure</a>, a non-profit corporation he co-founded at Berkeley in 1967.</p>
<p><em>A Pattern Language</em> featured photos, descriptions and diagrams of 253 patterns that Alexander explored as units for the design of buildings and cities. Patterns were linked to each other. The book covered patterns related to things like the distribution of towns (pattern 2), staircases (pattern 133) and chair types (pattern 251). </p>
<p>Each pattern came with detailed commentary on the principles that drove it, and the ways it would enable <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1995-01-29-tm-25890-story.html">wholeness</a> and relationships between “<a href="http://caper.ws/patterns/apl8/apl8.htm">the great variety of human groups and subcultures which can co-exist</a>” in cities.</p>
<p>Underlying the accessible way Alexander presented the patterns was <a href="https://www.patternlanguage.com/bookstore/timeless-way-of-building.html">a rigorous mathematical logic</a> that defined their sequence and relationships. The dual nature of the book rendered it popular among <a href="https://www.patternlanguage.com/gallery/housingcommunity.html">amateur designers</a> and <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/architectural-intelligence">software engineers</a> alike. </p>
<p>The book also incited <a href="http://www.girlwonder.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Volume-57_Bye-Default_Molly-Steenson.pdf">critique by architects</a> who were skeptical of its claims to universality and comprehensiveness. </p>
<p>The anti-establishment American magazine <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-silicon-valley/the-complicated-legacy-of-stewart-brands-whole-earth-catalog"><em>Whole Earth Catalog</em></a> <a href="https://nevalalee.wordpress.com/tag/the-next-whole-earth-catalog/">dedicated a full page to the book</a> as a tool for DIY design and building. The book even continues to inspire <a href="http://www.patternlanguage.com/">design today</a>.</p>
<h2>‘A City is Not a Tree’</h2>
<p>An important juncture in Alexander’s theoretical explorations toward <em>A Pattern Language</em> was his musing about how a city could emulate the structure of living things and beautiful works of art. He did this in his article “<a href="https://www.patternlanguage.com/archive/cityisnotatree.html">A City is Not a Tree</a>.” </p>
<p>A tree, here, is <a href="https://mathworld.wolfram.com/Tree.html">a mathematical term</a> referring to a hierarchical ordering of elements. Alexander critiqued thinking about urban systems in terms of independent parts. He proposed that instead, these parts should be more interconnected.</p>
<p>“A City is Not a Tree” was a critique of his earlier book, <a href="https://monoskop.org/images/f/ff/Alexander_Christopher_Notes_on_the_Synthesis_of_Form.pdf"><em>Notes on the Synthesis of Form</em></a>. Here, Alexander had proposed breaking down complex design problems into hierarchical trees. </p>
<p>Published in 1964, the <em>Notes</em> presented a mathematical method for breaking complex design problems into smaller ones. The book also pioneered computation in architecture and kindled worldwide efforts to bring <a href="https://monoskop.org/images/6/66/Cross_Nigel_1993_A_History_of_Design_Methodology.pdf">scientific rigour to design</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VZHb9-Y9r_E?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Christopher Alexander recorded at the University of Oregon in 1993.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Hidden mathematical structure</h2>
<p>Throughout his career, Alexander spoke of a hidden mathematical structure underlying empirical particulars. </p>
<p>Alexander was trained as a mathematician at Cambridge University. There, he was exposed to “modern” mathematics <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/ebook/9781400829040/platos-ghost">that focused not on measurements or geometric shapes, but on abstract structures</a>. </p>
<p>It would seem that Alexander imported such ideals of abstraction through structures to architecture. But Alexander’s PhD progress reports in the archive of architect <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20060516122752/http://www.artic.edu/aic/libraries/caohp/chermayeff.html">Serge Chermayeff</a>, who was a member of his doctoral committee, suggest that work on the <em>Notes</em> began with <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780429264306-4/bewildered-form-maker-stands-alone-theodora-vardouli">practical concerns with how to design mass-industrialized housing</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/691132">Inspired by the flourishing field of game theory</a>, Alexander first imagined a design process as a co-operative game between architects and the public. </p>
<p>The aim was to find a middle ground between architects following public taste and architects imposing theirs. The game’s foundation would be extensive data collection about public needs and preferences, as well as architects’ own preferences and ideals. But under what categories to classify all that data? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="View of a home's hallway, showing wood walls and a built-in bench under a large window facing onto trees." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461371/original/file-20220504-15-odhl9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/461371/original/file-20220504-15-odhl9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461371/original/file-20220504-15-odhl9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461371/original/file-20220504-15-odhl9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461371/original/file-20220504-15-odhl9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461371/original/file-20220504-15-odhl9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/461371/original/file-20220504-15-odhl9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The front hall of a home designed by Alexander, Sala House, in Albany, N.Y.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">(Ekyono/Wikimedia Commons)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is a house made of?</h2>
<p>In 1959, Alexander advanced this question through a project called “The Urban House,” with Chermayeff at the <a href="https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/about/history">MIT-Harvard Joint Center for Urban Studies</a>. They asked: What is a house made of? Alexander’s answer was that it depends on the data: The data one gathers about a specific design problem ought to dictate the categories for thinking about it and for designing it. </p>
<p>Instead of thinking about a house in terms of conventional categories such as kitchens, bedrooms, windows and doors, analyzing data about people’s and architects’ behaviours, needs or preferences would define an altogether different set of categories. </p>
<p>Alexander suggested thinking of the house in terms of its failures: how its physical attributes caused it to fail meeting specific needs or requirements identified during data collection. Each failure was associated with data. </p>
<p>Examining relationships between the data would help hierarchically organize these failures and indicate the order in which architects should tackle them. Alexander also co-developed a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8Gu1zq4vwg">computer program</a> implementing that method. </p>
<h2>Messy data and clean algorithms</h2>
<p><a href="https://vimeo.com/340546754">In several stages of his work</a> Alexander grappled with the relationship between concrete details stemming from observation and abstract mathematical structures that he argued held everything together. As I continue to explore in my research, mathematical structures in Alexander’s work gradually took lives of their own and became severed from the data that gave rise to them in the first place.</p>
<p>Alexander’s work will no doubt continue to be important and relevant in light of burgeoning contemporary debates about <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/all-data-are-local">how data always comes from specific settings</a> and <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/your-computer-fire">algorithmic bias</a>. </p>
<p>The story of how the tree came about and evolved in Alexander’s work shows that behind algorithms lie messy and subjective processes of <a href="https://annenberg.usc.edu/news/critical-conversations/kate-crawford-maps-world-extraction-and-exploitation-atlas-ai">extracting information</a> — and that mathematical abstraction sometimes works to conceal them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179987/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodora Vardouli receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>
Architect Christopher Alexander’s work will continue to be important not only for designing buildings but also in light of contemporary debates about how data always comes from specific settings.
Theodora Vardouli, Assistant Professor, Peter Guo-hua Fu School of Architecture, McGill University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/177781
2022-03-08T14:49:18Z
2022-03-08T14:49:18Z
Nigeria’s 2022 census is overdue but preparation is in doubt
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449550/original/file-20220302-15-e96v70.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nigeria last conducted a census in 2006.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/year-old-anthony-odili-gives-his-finger-print-after-census-news-photo/57144951?adppopup=true">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>As Nigeria’s <a href="https://nationalpopulation.gov.ng/">National Population Commission</a> prepares for a national census scheduled <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/01/npc-ready-to-conduct-first-digital-population-census-in-nigeria-npc-boss/">for May 2022</a> – the first since 2006 – The Conversation Africa’s Wale Fatade asked demographer and social statistician Akanni Akinyemi what a census entails and how ready the country is for the exercise.</em> </p>
<h2>What is a census and why is it important for a country?</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=2082#:%7E:text=A%20population%20census%20is%20the,delimited%20part%20of%20a%20country.">population census</a> is the process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analysing, publishing and disseminating demographic characteristics of a country at a specified time.</p>
<p>It is best conducted every 10 years to reflect the population dynamics. It should be able to show changes in fertility, mortality, migration and the labour force. The socioeconomic situation must be captured and it should give the age and sex structure of the population. </p>
<p>Census data should provide reliable information on the population size at national, sub-national and lower administrative levels. </p>
<p>This is critical information for planning social, economic and infrastructural development, budgeting and monitoring government performance. </p>
<p>A major strength of a population census is the ability to provide information at the lower administrative levels. For instance, health indicators are best monitored at these levels. Interventions during outbreaks of disease require reliable estimates of local populations. </p>
<p>Census information is also the bedrock of other surveys. The <a href="https://www.dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR359/FR359.pdf">Demographic and Health Surveys</a>, <a href="http://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/nigeria-performance-monitoring-and-accountability-2020-survey-round-4-2017">Performance Monitoring for Action</a>, <a href="https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/sites/unicef.org.nigeria/files/2018-09/Nigeria-MICS-2016-17.pdf">Multiple Indicator Cluster surveys</a>, <a href="https://dhsprogram.com/methodology/survey/survey-display-576.cfm">Malaria Indicator Surveys</a> and many others derive their sampling from the census. </p>
<h2>How is a census normally conducted?</h2>
<p>There are three parts: pre-census planning, census, and post-enumeration surveys. Before the census, the public is made aware, geographical enumeration areas are demarcated and maps are procured. The logistics of conducting a census in Nigeria are enormous. The census activities can only begin after the presidential assent and a dedicated budget line. The 2022 budget <a href="https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/governance/nigeria-gears-for-2022-population-and-housing-census-approves-n177-billion-budget/">approved</a> N177.33 billion (about US$425 million) for this year’s census. </p>
<p>Ideally, a census questionnaire and method is developed and validated. Census questionnaires do change from time to time. For example, the 2006 census collected information on age, sex, occupation, literacy and employment. It also asked about housing, access to water, electricity and other household amenities. It did not collect information on fertility, mortality, migration and disability. Nothing was asked about religion and ethnicity. </p>
<p>The post-enumeration survey is a critical aspect of quality assurance and control. However, there are other issues around the political and legal framework as provided in the constitution. This is to ensure its acceptability, eventual publication and official gazette. The figures then become official. </p>
<h2>How did Nigeria conduct its past censuses?</h2>
<p>The census has always been <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-census-has-always-been-tricky-why-this-must-change-150391">problematic in Nigeria</a>. The 1962, 1963 and 1973 censuses were <a href="https://nationalpopulation.gov.ng/about-us/history-of-population-censuses-in-nigeria/">bedevilled with controversies</a>. They were mostly about deliberate manipulation of census figures at sub-national levels. The 1973 census <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1974/07/17/archives/nigerian-census-figures-stir-a-dispute-along-ethnic-lines.html">provoked debate</a> along ethnic lines. In 2006, the Lagos State government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-lagos-idUKL0674057420070206">rejected the figures</a> and ran a <a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2007/02/population-nigeria-we-want-recount/">parallel</a> census. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.prb.org/resources/objections-surface-over-nigerian-census-results/">2006 census</a> was the last one, so Nigeria is overdue for another. The political interference was enormous and hampered the scientific processes. Important information was not collected on fertility, mortality, migration and disability. </p>
<p>In 2006 there was too much political interest in the composition of the population commission board, with 38 members. These people are not professionals in population or statistics but appointed mostly for political reasons. This put a lot of stress on the census activities. The 2006 census was unable to fulfil one of its critical mandates: providing data below local government levels.</p>
<p>Comparing the 2006 Nigeria census with other African countries like <a href="https://www.iaos-isi.org/images/IAOS2017-19/2016Conference/P1B/Awatif_Musa_paper.pdf">Sudan’s 2008 census</a> shows that political challenges should not be an impediment. The planning, conduct, analysis and quality assurance was adequate.</p>
<h2>Census figures are usually disputed in Nigeria. Why, and what should be done?</h2>
<p>The way resources are shared in Nigeria’s political system puts unnecessary pressure on the census. It encourages competitive manoeuvring and manipulative tendencies at all levels. The 2006 post-enumeration survey was poorly planned and poorly implemented. Census data were not released to researchers for further analysis and scrutiny. This makes it difficult to use the 2006 census as a basis for the 2022 one. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://nationalpopulation.gov.ng/">census coordinating commission</a> is responsible for quality and credibility of the process at all stages. Unfortunately, the composition of the commission’s hierarchy is more about political gains than scientific merit. Ideally, an efficient statistical system should ensure there are other credible sources of data to validate or complement census data. However, there is a lack of commitment to ensuring the quality of other sources of data. </p>
<p>The commission should have a technical working group of experts sourced from professional demographers in academia and industry. </p>
<p>Processing and publishing of census information should adhere strictly to a timeline. The timely release of census data for research and academic purposes should be guaranteed. </p>
<h2>How ready is Nigeria for the census this year?</h2>
<p>The national census is a colossal, expensive and labour-intensive statistical operation that requires extensive planning. The success of a census depends on several factors. These include technical expertise, independence from political interference, excellent geo-referenced maps, huge human and financial resources and good timing. </p>
<p>Although some of the pre-census activities like the enumeration area demarcation have been well implemented, it is unrealistic to assume that everything will be ready. Recruitment and payment of staff were critical issues in the 2006 census. </p>
<p>Year 2023 is an election year with many political activities and this might affect the census slated for 2022. Nigeria’s security challenges and the economy are factors to be considered too. Then there’s the unpredictable dimension of COVID-19. </p>
<p>The level of public and professional awareness of the census is also very low. The Population Commission’s <a href="https://nationalpopulation.gov.ng/">website</a> has no information on milestones and preparedness. Census is a huge scientific responsibility that requires a high level of preparedness, transparency and quality assurance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Akanni Ibukun Akinyemi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Census is a huge scientific responsibility that requires a high level of preparedness, transparency and quality assurance.
Akanni Ibukun Akinyemi, Professor, Obafemi Awolowo University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/168662
2021-12-15T19:09:35Z
2021-12-15T19:09:35Z
We calculated the impact of ‘long COVID’ as Australia opens up. Even without Omicron, we’re worried
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436515/original/file-20211209-25-1xvwosg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1%2C1000%2C663&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tired-student-doing-homework-home-sitting-1895928658">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past two years, we’ve learned COVID-19 survivors can develop a range of longer-term symptoms we now call “<a href="https://theconversation.com/long-covid-a-public-health-experts-campaign-to-understand-the-disease-152212">long COVID</a>”. This includes people who did not have severe illness initially.</p>
<p>Such <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Post_COVID-19_condition-Clinical_case_definition-2021.1">longer-term symptoms</a> can affect multiple systems in the body. This can result in ongoing, severe fatigue plus a wide range of other symptoms, including pain, as well as breathing, neurological, sleep and mental health problems.</p>
<p>So far, Australia has had far fewer COVID-19 cases than many other nations. But as we <a href="https://www.australia.gov.au/framework-national-reopening">re-open</a>, this situation may change. So we will likely see more long COVID in the months and years ahead.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-mystery-of-long-covid-up-to-1-in-3-people-who-catch-the-virus-suffer-for-months-heres-what-we-know-so-far-161174">The mystery of 'long COVID': up to 1 in 3 people who catch the virus suffer for months. Here's what we know so far</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our research, which we posted <a href="https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1066181/v1">online as a pre-print</a> and so has yet to be independently verified, examined the shifting burden of disease of COVID-19 as Australia re-opens and as high vaccination rates reduce mortality and severe illness. </p>
<p>We show how long COVID will increasingly drive the burden of COVID illness, even as death rates decline.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://iht.deakin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/153/2021/12/Briefing-Paper_Long-Covid_Final.pdf">also estimate</a> the likely numbers of long COVID cases we can expect in Australia over the two years following reopening.</p>
<p>We wrote this <a href="https://iht.deakin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/153/2021/12/Briefing-Paper_Long-Covid_Final.pdf">briefing paper</a> before the rise of Omicron, the impact of which we’re yet to fully understand. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-omicron-the-new-coronavirus-variant-of-concern-be-more-contagious-than-delta-a-virus-evolution-expert-explains-what-researchers-know-and-what-they-dont-169020">Will omicron – the new coronavirus variant of concern – be more contagious than delta? A virus evolution expert explains what researchers know and what they don't</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Here’s what we did and what we found</h2>
<p>We examined the 2021 Delta outbreaks in <a href="https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data">Victoria</a> and <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-19-surveillance-report-20211111.pdf">New South Wales</a> in which nearly 140,000 people had been infected by the end of October.</p>
<p>We estimated long COVID prevalence using two sources. A large dataset <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021">from the UK</a> found more than 13% of people had symptoms after 12 weeks. A much smaller study <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606521001024?via%3Dihub">conducted in NSW</a> found about 5% had symptoms over roughly the same period.</p>
<p>Our modelling suggests, by the end of October, the combined Victoria and NSW outbreaks may <a href="https://iht.deakin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/153/2021/12/Briefing-Paper_Long-Covid_Final.pdf">have already led to</a> 9,450–19,800 people having developed long COVID that could last 12 weeks after their COVID infection.</p>
<p>Even more will have experienced long COVID symptoms for a shorter time: 34,000-44,500 people will likely have symptoms for at least three weeks after first becoming ill, but our model indicates more than half will then recover over the following nine weeks.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/will-australia-follow-europe-into-a-fourth-covid-wave-boosters-vaccinating-kids-ventilation-and-masks-may-help-us-avoid-it-172296">Will Australia follow Europe into a fourth COVID wave? Boosters, vaccinating kids, ventilation and masks may help us avoid it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We also estimated the likely consequences for long COVID if we follow
Australia’s national re-opening plan, based on interim modelling from the <a href="https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/DOHERTY_MODELLING_INTERIM_REPORT_TO_NATIONAL_CABINET_17TH_SEPTEMBER_2021.pdf">Doherty Institute</a>, which has since been updated.</p>
<p>The Doherty Institute modelled various scenarios with different vaccination rates and public health measures in place. These gave different estimates of COVID-19 cases. We combined these with our upper and lower estimates for long COVID prevalence. </p>
<p>We calculated that more limited relaxation of public health measures could generate 10,000-34,000 long COVID cases (people with symptoms lasting at least 12 weeks). More complete relaxation of public health measures could lead to 60,000-133,000 long COVID cases.</p>
<p>Based on the longer-term UK data for long COVID prevalence, we calculated 2,000-11,000 people might still be sick a year after their initial infection.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1468387333489803265"}"></div></p>
<p>What we cannot be absolutely certain about is the impact of vaccination on the expected number of long COVID cases. Some studies suggest that if vaccinated people become infected, this reduces their chance of developing long COVID, but <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03495-2">the evidence remains uncertain</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-shouldnt-lift-all-covid-public-health-measures-until-kids-are-vaccinated-heres-why-172625">We shouldn't lift all COVID public health measures until kids are vaccinated. Here's why</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Many impacts, beyond health</h2>
<p>Long COVID can be a debilitating and distressing health condition. It also has a number of economic impacts, for the health system and people’s ability to work.</p>
<p>For instance, people with long COVID require <a href="https://ahha.asn.au/publication/health-policy-issue-briefs/deeble-issues-brief-no-40-managing-long-term-health">coordinated care</a> across a range of different health services and specialties.</p>
<p>Recent data from the UK’s <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2december2021">Office for National Statistics</a> indicate that around 1.2 million people reported long COVID symptoms in the four weeks to the end of October. The UK health secretary <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/sajid-javid-long-covid-nhs-b1934861.html">said he was alarmed</a> at the growing scale of this problem for the National Health Service.</p>
<p>Indeed, attempts to provide long COVID care through specialised hospital-based clinics in the UK and elsewhere have led to <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/long-queues-for-long-covid-clinics-jk8jr7tt6">long waiting times and uneven access</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436524/original/file-20211209-23-1lleiea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Exhausted health worker leaning on hospital wall holding cup of coffee" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436524/original/file-20211209-23-1lleiea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436524/original/file-20211209-23-1lleiea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436524/original/file-20211209-23-1lleiea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436524/original/file-20211209-23-1lleiea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=251&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436524/original/file-20211209-23-1lleiea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436524/original/file-20211209-23-1lleiea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436524/original/file-20211209-23-1lleiea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Health systems will be under strain, particularly if health workers are struggling with long COVID.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/portrait-tired-exhausted-nurse-doctor-having-1698233623">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By contrast, Australia needs to <a href="https://ahha.asn.au/publication/health-policy-issue-briefs/deeble-issues-brief-no-40-managing-long-term-health">focus urgently on</a> identifying and counting long COVID. It also needs to establish mechanisms to coordinate care for long COVID by mobilising resources across the community and private sectors, not just public hospitals. </p>
<p>Meeting the emerging needs of people with long COVID represents an additional burden on health-care systems <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2021/215/11/entering-australias-third-year-covid-19">already battered</a> by COVID and rapidly rising backlogs of care for other conditions.</p>
<p>If health-care workers are <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33830208/">particularly at risk</a> of long COVID as some people claim, this will further stretch health systems as they take time out to recover or leave the workforce.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/6-ways-to-prevent-a-mass-exodus-of-health-workers-172509">6 ways to prevent a mass exodus of health workers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Beyond health care, long COVID again highlights weaknesses which were made clear early in the COVID-19 pandemic, but which have not yet been remedied. </p>
<p>COVID-19 has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2021/oct/12/delta-deaths-expose-australias-great-disadvantage-divide">more severely affected</a> those who are socially and economically disadvantaged, and who rely on insecure employment. We expect long COVID to continue to be over-represented in this already disadvantaged population.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/social-media-activism-trucker-caps-the-fascinating-story-behind-long-covid-168465">Social media, activism, trucker caps: the fascinating story behind long COVID</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Avoiding COVID-19 in the first place</h2>
<p>While societies around the world grapple with addressing the types of disadvantage the pandemic has exposed, there are several steps individual people can take to minimise their risk of long COVID.</p>
<p>Obviously, this means minimising your risk of COVID-19 in the first place. This means vaccination, mask wearing where appropriate, and complying with other public health measures.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, if you test positive for COVID-19, isolate early, rest and do not return to work until you have fully recovered.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168662/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>We refer in this piece to earlier work we (MH and MRA) undertook to produce an Issues Brief commissioned by the Deeble Institute for Health Policy Research, the research arm of the Australian Healthcare and Hospitals Association. No funding or remuneration was provided by the Deeble Institute or AHHA for that work.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>We refer in this piece to earlier work we (MH and MRA) undertook to produce an Issues Brief commissioned by the Deeble Institute for Health Policy Research, the research arm of the Australian Healthcare and Hospitals Association. No funding or remuneration was provided by the Deeble Institute or AHHA for that work.</span></em></p>
More cases of long COVID can put strain on our health system. So we need to think about where and how we offer care.
Martin Hensher, Associate Professor of Health Systems Financing & Organisation, Deakin University
Mary Rose Angeles, Associate Research Fellow, Health System Financing and Sustainability, Deakin University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/167157
2021-09-24T12:36:41Z
2021-09-24T12:36:41Z
Long power outages after disasters aren’t inevitable – but to avoid them, utilities need to think differently
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423016/original/file-20210923-18-1fbqkfc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=23%2C15%2C5112%2C3392&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Power poles downed by Hurricane Ida in Houma, Louisiana, Aug. 30, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/power-line-poles-are-seen-downed-by-hurricane-ida-in-houma-news-photo/1234971730">Nick Wagner/Xinhua via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A busy 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is in full swing. The year’s 18th named storm, Sam, <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145652.shtml?cone#contents">has become a hurricane</a>. Meanwhile, some residents in the parts of Louisiana hit hardest by Hurricane Ida in late August are <a href="https://www.entergy.com/hurricaneida/etr/">still waiting for their power to be restored</a>. And thousands of Texas residents endured <a href="https://abc13.com/power-outages-houston-texas-hurricane-nicholas-centerpoint-energy/11028427/">multi-day outages after Hurricane Nicholas</a> in mid-September. </p>
<p>Americans are becoming painfully aware that U.S. energy grids are vulnerable to extreme weather events. Hurricanes in the east, wildfires in the west, ice storms, floods and even landslides can trigger widespread power shortages. And climate change is likely making many of these extreme events <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate">more frequent, more severe or both</a>.</p>
<p>As a long-time <a href="https://scholar.google.ca/citations?user=07sAJX8AAAAJ&hl=en">researcher of the electric utility industry</a>, I’ve noticed that the U.S. tends to treat extended power cuts from natural disasters as an unfortunate fact of life. Even in states like Pennsylvania, where I live, that aren’t typically in the path of major tropical storms, a surprising amount of energy infrastructure is <a href="http://files.dep.state.pa.us/Energy/Office%20of%20Energy%20and%20Technology/OETDPortalFiles/ClimateChange/2020ClimateChangeImpactsAssessmentUpdate.pdf">potentially vulnerable to extreme weather</a>. </p>
<p>But in my view, major energy disruptions are not inevitable consequences beyond our control. Rather, the <a href="https://medialibrary.climatecentral.org/resources/power-outages">rising number</a> of large weather-related blackouts in recent years shows that utilities, regulators and government agencies aren’t planning for these events in the right way. What’s needed is an understanding that extreme weather events are fundamentally different from other kinds of power blackouts, and that resilience is not just about the grid itself, but also the people that it serves. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CShES0MtjmD/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>How power companies plan for disasters</h2>
<p>In most areas of the U.S., power grids tend not to fail unless they are pushed really hard. Utilities have built a tremendous amount of redundancy into energy delivery systems – extra generating capacity and transmission lines that can get electricity to customers if part of the system fails. That’s the right approach if major threats are things like equipment overloads on very hot days, or random equipment failures that could cascade into much bigger problems. </p>
<p>Utilities and regulators have <a href="http://repositorio.uchile.cl/bitstream/handle/2250/176312/From-Reliability-to-Resilience.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">planned grid design</a> around these kinds of failures for decades. And for the most part, this approach has worked well. Truly severe power outages from causes other than extreme weather don’t happen very often in the U.S. The last really big one, on <a href="https://www.energy.gov/oe/services/electricity-policy-coordination-and-implementation/august-2003-blackout">Aug. 14-15, 2003</a>, affected some 50 million people across the U.S. Northeast and Midwest and southern Canada.</p>
<p>Redundancy is a good strategy for keeping the grid stable following an unexpected malfunction of one or two pieces of equipment. It also allows utilities to do more of what they are good at – building, maintaining and operating power grid infrastructure.</p>
<p>But in the face of extreme weather events, <a href="https://pennstateoffice365-my.sharepoint.com/:b:/g/personal/sab51_psu_edu/EY2cQXD-ECVLiXY5N9LuxUUBsqHgy6rDYkEOiv9-kb9bGw?e=1m38E9">the system needs a different kind of redundancy</a>. Building more equipment in vulnerable places won’t keep the lights on if the entire area is hit by a disruptive event all at once. In Louisiana, Hurricane Ida was so fierce that it took down <a href="https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ida-knocks-out-all-transmission-lines-into-new-orleans-leaves-1m-without/605754/">multiple power transmission lines</a> that feed electricity into New Orleans and surrounding parishes. Some of this damaged infrastructure had been upgraded or put in place following previous severe storms.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422998/original/file-20210923-22-y8njb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing distribution poles downed by Gulf coast hurricanes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422998/original/file-20210923-22-y8njb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422998/original/file-20210923-22-y8njb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422998/original/file-20210923-22-y8njb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422998/original/file-20210923-22-y8njb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422998/original/file-20210923-22-y8njb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422998/original/file-20210923-22-y8njb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/422998/original/file-20210923-22-y8njb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Ida took down nearly twice as many electric power distribution poles as Hurricane Katrina in 2005.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.entergy.com/hurricaneida/etr/">Entergy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Rethinking resilience planning</h2>
<p>Planning properly for resilience to extreme weather events requires doing some things differently. </p>
<p>First, it means realizing that a lot of equipment in the same place will be <a href="https://pennstateoffice365-my.sharepoint.com/:b:/g/personal/sab51_psu_edu/EY2cQXD-ECVLiXY5N9LuxUUBsqHgy6rDYkEOiv9-kb9bGw?e=1m38E9">affected all at once</a>. One reason that Ida led to such large blackouts in New Orleans was that some older transmission lines going into the city <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/why-hurricane-ida-crippled-new-orleans-power-grid-2021-09-04/">hadn’t been upgraded</a> to withstand more severe weather, even though they ran beside new equipment. </p>
<p>Second, the goal should be to get people the <a href="https://research.ece.cmu.edu/cascadingfailures/Talukdar_CascadingFailuresSurvivalvsPrevention.pdf">services that they need</a>, not necessarily to keep the grid up and running, which is very costly and just won’t be possible in all circumstances. </p>
<p>This means thinking about solutions outside of the traditional utility business model – for example, deploying lifeline systems such as solar panels, batteries or generators. This isn’t how utilities traditionally do business, but it will tide people over while power companies make large-scale grid repairs after storms. </p>
<p>Third, it’s time to acknowledge that the risks of extreme events are increasing faster than many utilities have been adapting their plans. For example, <a href="https://www.pge.com/">Pacific Gas and Electric</a> in California has only recently incorporated wildfire risk into its transmission planning, and now is more seriously considering <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/21/business/energy-environment/pge-underground-powerlines-wildfires.html">burying power lines</a>. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.entergy.com/">Entergy</a>, which serves much of the area hit hardest by Ida, has upgraded its transmission design standards so that newer lines can withstand higher winds. This is a useful step, but it did not prevent catastrophic power outages during a period of <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/entergy-resisted-upgrading-new-orleans-power-grid-when-ida-hit-residents-paid-the-price">dangerously hot weather</a>. Utilities and regulators still assume that the <a href="https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/the-future-of-electric-power-in-the-us">scale and likelihood</a> of many weather-related risks has not changed in the past several decades. As climate change accelerates, utilities and regulators should be working to understand which risks are changing and how.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 110,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Some utilities, like those in New York, are learning from recent experiences with extreme weather events and trying to solve these problems. Con Edison, for example, has focused not only on restoration plans following extreme events, but has also <a href="https://www.coned.com/-/media/files/coned/documents/our-energy-future/our-energy-projects/climate-change-resiliency-plan/climate-change-vulnerability-study.pdf?la=en">tried to model and quantify the changing risks that it faces</a>. Others, like those in Vermont and California, are weighing how they can achieve extreme-weather resilience as their grids become more dependent on renewables. </p>
<p>How much money to spend for resilient grids is a major question. What’s already clear is that building more, bigger infrastructure is not necessarily better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167157/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seth Blumsack receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Heising Simons Foundation, and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. He is also affiliated with Carnegie-Mellon University through their Electricity Industry Center and the Santa Fe Institute as an External Faculty</span></em></p>
Building even more power poles and transmission lines won’t avert outages when major disasters strike.
Seth Blumsack, Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics and International Affairs, Penn State
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/163566
2021-08-12T12:28:40Z
2021-08-12T12:28:40Z
A century after the Appalachian Trail was proposed, millions hike it every year seeking ‘the breath of a real life’
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415112/original/file-20210808-124063-14veivx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2048%2C1330&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">McAfee Knob in Virginia's Blue Ridge Mountains, one of the Appalachian Trail's most scenic vistas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/9qWPTz">Ben Townsend/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Appalachian Trail, North America’s most famous hiking route, stretches over 2,189 mountainous miles (3,520 kilometers) from Georgia to Maine. In any given year, some <a href="https://appalachiantrail.org/our-work/about-us/media-room/">3 million people hike on it</a>, including more than 3,000 “thru-hikers” who go the entire distance, either in one stretch or in segments over multiple years. </p>
<p>The AT, as it’s widely known, is a national icon on a par with conservation touchstones like the Grand Canyon, Yellowstone’s Old Faithful geyser and the Florida Everglades. It symbolizes opportunity – the chance to set out on a life-altering experience in the great outdoors, or at least a pleasant <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/20552/a-walk-in-the-woods-by-bill-bryson/">walk in the woods</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://bmta.org/about-us/#man">Benton MacKaye</a>, the classically trained forester who proposed creating the AT in 1921, saw it as a space where visitors could escape the stresses and rigors of modern industrial life. He also believed it could be a foundation for sound land-use patterns, with each section managed and cared for by local volunteers. MacKaye was a highly original thinker who called for protecting land on a continent-spanning scale and thought about how land use patterns could influence work and social relationships. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415111/original/file-20210808-27-1rdf06z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sign shows distance to Maine and Georgia." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415111/original/file-20210808-27-1rdf06z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415111/original/file-20210808-27-1rdf06z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415111/original/file-20210808-27-1rdf06z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415111/original/file-20210808-27-1rdf06z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415111/original/file-20210808-27-1rdf06z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415111/original/file-20210808-27-1rdf06z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415111/original/file-20210808-27-1rdf06z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Halfway there, more or less: a trailhead in Harpers Ferry, West Virginia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/kT3XUN">Michel Curi/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=yhrCijUAAAAJ&hl=en">My research</a> focuses on how people work together to promote <a href="https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications/policy-focus-reports/large-landscape-conservation">large landscape conservation</a> and to protect connectivity – physically linking patches of habitat, <a href="https://islandpress.org/books/conservation-across-borders">on land</a> or <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/habitat-connectivity.html">at sea</a>, so that animals and plants can move between them. MacKaye’s conception of the AT represents an early example of such comprehensive approaches to conservation.</p>
<h2>An escape from industrial life</h2>
<p>One hundred years ago, MacKaye <a href="https://appalachiantrail.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/An-Appalachian-Trail-A-Project-in-Regional-Planning-Benton-MacKaye-1921.pdf">laid out his vision for the AT</a> in an article for the Journal of the American Institute of Architects. At that time, progressive thinkers were conceptualizing and promoting the idea of regional planning at many different scales. </p>
<p>Had MacKaye focused solely on a physical trail, the editors probably would have rejected his manuscript. But MacKaye envisioned the AT as a connecting cord that would run through and define a natural and rural region. In his view, maintaining the undeveloped character of the land would only become more essential in the face of an encroaching East Coast metropolis. And because it lay in the eastern U.S., the trail would “serve as the breath of a real life for the toilers in the bee-hive cities along the Atlantic seaboard and beyond,” he wrote.</p>
<p>By 1925 MacKaye organized an <a href="https://appalachiantrail.org/our-work/about-us/atc-history/">Appalachian Trail Conference</a> to build the footpath, which was completed in 1937. The first thru-hiker, a <a href="https://appalachiantrailhistory.org/exhibits/show/hikers/firstthruhiker">World War II veteran named Earl Shaffer</a>, completed the full journey in 1948. Over the following decades, most of the practical work on the AT focused on tying together the thread of the trail itself – a challenging mission of acquiring access rights to myriad public and private lands.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LplaSyK6TWA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Clips from an AT thru-hike, moving from south to north.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Maintaining the landscape around the AT in perpetuity is a bigger challenge. And climate change is making that issue more urgent, for the AT isn’t just a footpath for humans. It also provides two ways for plants and animals to shift their ranges in a changing world. </p>
<p>First, the trail offers a chance for wildlife and plants to <a href="https://conservationcorridor.org/digests/2018/08/climate-corridors-of-north-america/">move northward to cooler habitats</a> on a warming planet. Second, species can also <a href="http://www.mountainecology.org/index.php/me/article/view/12">move up mountains to avoid warmer temperatures</a> – and any thru-hiker has the blisters to prove that the AT has plenty of mountains. </p>
<h2>More than a footpath</h2>
<p>Beginning with MacKaye, many people over the past century have aspired to frame the AT as a platform for conservation at a regional scale – that is, extending far beyond the narrow trail corridor, which <a href="https://www.nps.gov/appa/learn/management/upload/AT-report-web.pdf">averages about 1,000 feet (300 meters) wide</a>, or less than a quarter of a mile. One impetus is to provide a natural experience for hikers. Who wants to go exploring through <a href="https://www.planetizen.com/definition/exurbs">exurban sprawl</a>? Protecting land around the trail also expands spaces for plants and animals.</p>
<p>One of the best-known examples of large landscape approaches is the <a href="http://y2y.net">Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative</a>, often referred to as Y2Y (I am the current chair of the Y2Y Council). Since the mid-1990s, this venture has striven to conserve habitat and rural working lands across a region that stretches some 2,000 miles (3,220 kilometers) north from the <a href="https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/greater-yellowstone-ecosystem.htm">Greater Yellowstone region</a> in Wyoming, Montana and Idaho to Canada’s Yukon Territory. </p>
<p>As the <a href="https://y2y.net/work/our-impact/">Y2Y experience has shown</a>, conserving large landscapes around the AT will not be easy or straightforward – but it is possible. MacKaye worried about urban and suburban encroachment – a threat that has only grown more severe over the past hundred years. “<a href="https://appalachiantrail.org/official-blog/building-a-climate-resilient-at-landscape/">Pinch points</a>” include the mid-Atlantic portion of the AT, but development threats are present all along the trail. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1277139814362603521"}"></div></p>
<p>Conservation advocates have identified <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/index.html?appid=1e630101729d402e97a45be94ef33f65">key spots along the AT</a> where land around the trail could be protected from development to support wildlife by preserving it as open space. They include highlands in northern New Jersey and southern New York; forests and wetlands in Vermont and New Hampshire; and Maine’s North Woods. </p>
<p>Land trusts and conservation organizations from Georgia to Maine are working to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xk-NapHTWrc&t=25s">protect wild lands along the length of the AT</a> and increasingly are coordinating their efforts through the <a href="https://appalachiantrail.org/our-work/conservation/landscape/">Appalachian Trail Landscape Partnership</a>. This initiative includes more than 100 partners, led by the Appalachian Trail Conservancy and the <a href="https://www.nps.gov/appa/index.htm">U.S. National Park Service</a>, which has managed the AT since the passage of the 1968 National Scenic Trails Act. </p>
<h2>Footpath and barrier</h2>
<p>Benton MacKaye hoped that the AT would be a symbolic and literal pathway toward solving social problems. His initial vision for the trail included community camps, covering up to 100 acres, that would grow out of trail shelters into small settlements where people could live year-round and pursue “nonindustrial” activities such as study and recuperation. Eventually, he envisioned more permanent camps that would offer the opportunity to move from cities back to the country and work cooperatively on the land, raising food and harvesting timber.</p>
<p>“The camp community … is in essence a retreat from profit. Cooperation replaces antagonism, trust replaces suspicion, emulation replaces competition,” MacKaye wrote. </p>
<p>MacKaye’s grand hopes may have been idealistic, but fulfilling the AT’s potential for large landscape conservation in some of the most populated regions of North America is still a worthy goal. As MacKaye presciently concluded in his 1921 article, “This trail could be made to be, in a very literal sense, a battle line against fire and flood – and even against disease.” A century later, I believe the time has come for MacKaye’s vision of the trail to flourish as a mutually supportive endeavor among people and nature in a changing world. </p>
<p>[<em>Over 109,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles C. Chester is the U.S. chair of the Yellowstone to Yukon Council, which works to connect and protect habitat in the Yellowstone to Yukon region of the western U.S. and Canada.</span></em></p>
When forester Benton MacKaye proposed building an Appalachian Trail 100 years ago, he was really thinking about preserving a larger region as a haven from industrial life.
Charles C. Chester, Lecturer in Environmental Studies, Brandeis University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/165170
2021-08-01T20:08:05Z
2021-08-01T20:08:05Z
What Olympic athletes can teach us about regulating our emotions and staying dedicated
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413903/original/file-20210730-13-1q1clwm.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=105%2C373%2C6094%2C3826&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alessandra Tarantino/AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Olympians are often seen as the epitome of human performance, with incredible physical and mental strength. And with the 2020 Tokyo Olympic games well underway, it’s hard to not be impressed by the sheer talent and determination of athletes competing from all over the world. </p>
<p>For many of us non-Olympians, the thought of possessing such capabilities is but a dream. But research in sport psychology suggests there are indeed some skills we can learn from the experts, as long as we’re willing to put in the work ourselves.</p>
<h2>What makes an Olympic athlete?</h2>
<p>Being an Olympian not only requires immense physical talent but also an incredible amount of psychological control. Sport psychologists have spent decades trying to identify the key psychological ingredients that make the world’s greatest athletes great.</p>
<p>For one, elite athletes display high levels of passion and commitment towards their sport. They also tend to believe in their own abilities more than the average person - which can protect them against the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2014.901551">negative effects of stress</a>. </p>
<p>Resilience and determination help them bounce back from defeat. A case in point: after competing in three prior Olympic games, British diver Tom Daley <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jul/27/tom-daley-knits-a-tea-cosy-holder-to-keep-his-gold-medal-safe-from-scratches">recently won</a> his first ever Olympic gold medal in Tokyo.</p>
<p>While competing, athletes must effectively regulate their emotions and attention to ensure best performance. Not keeping their emotions in check may compromise their performance under pressure — a phenomenon often referred to as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/nov/05/under-pressure-why-athletes-choke">choking</a>”.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-27/tokyo-olympics-simone-biles-out-of-team-gymnastics-finals/100328420">withdrawal</a> of gymnast Simone Biles from the US women’s team and all-round finals to focus on her mental health has highlighted to the whole world how important it is for athletes to be aware of their emotional and psychological functioning. </p>
<h2>But how is discipline developed?</h2>
<p>While genetics do <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12864-017-4190-8">play a role in shaping an elite athlete</a>, life experiences and environmental factors are also very important. Characteristics such as self-efficacy (your belief in your ability to perform a task) develop through experience and continued support from others. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tokyo-olympics-what-are-the-limits-of-human-performance-podcast-164882">Tokyo Olympics: what are the limits of human performance? Podcast</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Studies show <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0264041031000140374">enabling a supportive environment</a> which promotes free will, emotional expression and non-controlling feedback is important for enhancing athletes’ psychological well-being.</p>
<p>This type of environment fosters what we call “autonomous motivation”, which is the motivation to perform an action based on one’s own interest or enjoyment. Research has shown behaviours that are autonomously motivated are more likely to be <a href="https://ijbnpa.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1479-5868-9-78">maintained long-term</a>. </p>
<p>Olympic champions often deal with multiple stressors relating to their sports performance, occupation and personal lives. But their work requires them to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2012.04.007">develop resilience</a> and approach stressors as challenges to be overcome. </p>
<p>An athlete’s performance can also be impacted by a variety of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1612197X.2011.614848">environmental cues</a> including their peers, opponents, training facilities, training activities and their coach. Coaches therefore have a particularly important role in shaping an athlete’s environment and promoting high performance.</p>
<h2>Adopting an elite mindset</h2>
<p>Whether or not you’re training for the 2024 Paris Olympics, adopting some of the psychological skills used by Olympians can help you maintain focus and motivation in your own life.</p>
<p>Whether you want to exercise more, reduce your alcohol intake, or maybe be more productive at home or work — the following techniques can help you adopt an elite mindset. </p>
<p><strong>1. Goal-setting</strong></p>
<p>Elite athletes often set short-term and long-term goals. Setting “SMART” goals (specific, measurable, attainable, realistic and time-bound) can help you achieve those small wins to keep you motivated as you progress towards a greater goal.</p>
<p>When setting goals for yourself, try to make them meaningful by linking them to values you care about. For instance, you might wish to prioritise your health, or academic achievement. Doing so can help boost your motivation <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcbs.2013.08.002">to achieve your goals</a>.</p>
<p><strong>2. Planning</strong> </p>
<p>Obtaining a goal can often take considerable time and effort, as we see with athletes preparing for the Olympics. Planning is an important psychological skill that can help you regulate your behaviour as you move toward your goals. </p>
<p>Consider creating detailed action plans which outline when, where and how you will progress toward your goal. Your action plan may look like this:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Every afternoon at 3:00pm (when) I will drive to the local swimming pool (where) and swim for 45 minutes (how).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In addition, creating detailed coping plans will help prepare you for potential challenges that may impede goal attainment. For instance:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If the pool is too busy, I will go for a 45-minute run through the park instead. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>3. Positive self-talk</strong></p>
<p>Many athletes engage in reflective practices such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/tsp.15.3.306">self-talk</a> to help them focus or concentrate on the task at hand. </p>
<p>Identifying positive key words or phrases such as “I can do it” and “I’m almost there” can help redirect your attention and increase motivation to persevere through difficult or challenging situations. Positive self-talk can also help <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2008.07.009">enhance your self-efficacy</a>, which is a strong predictor of various positive outcomes. </p>
<p><strong>4. Mental imagery</strong></p>
<p>Before running towards the vault or executing a serve in volleyball, athletes often use mental imagery to visualise their performance. Visualising the steps needed to perform an action or reach your goal can boost motivation and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brat.2019.02.002">anticipated pleasure</a> from completing the planned activity.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-power-of-no-simone-biles-naomi-osaka-and-black-womens-resistance-165318">The power of no: Simone Biles, Naomi Osaka and Black women's resistance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So the next time you sit back to watch the world’s best compete for glory, think about how you too can adopt the mindset of an Olympian, and feel motivated to excel in your own way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165170/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Hannan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Simone Biles’ recent Olympics withdrawal is a reminder for all of us to balance our passions with our emotional well-being — as both work in unison.
Thomas Hannan, Postdoctoral research fellow, Griffith University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/155834
2021-03-02T13:24:07Z
2021-03-02T13:24:07Z
The Texas blackouts showed how climate extremes threaten energy systems across the US
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387079/original/file-20210301-19-11yngph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C7%2C4749%2C2924&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electric service trucks line up after a snow storm in Fort Worth, Texas, on Feb. 16, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pike-electric-service-trucks-line-up-after-a-snow-storm-on-news-photo/1231205567?adppopup=true">Ron Jenkins/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pundits and politicians have been quick to point fingers over the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-power-grid-was-minutes-from-collapse-during-freeze-operator-says-11614202063">debacle in Texas</a> that left millions without power or clean water during February’s deep freeze. Many have blamed the state’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/us/texas-electricity-ercot-blackouts.html">deregulated electricity market</a>, arguing that Texas prioritized cheap power over reliability.</p>
<p>But climate extremes are wreaking increasing havoc on energy systems across the U.S., regardless of local politics or the particulars of regional grids. For example, conservatives argued that <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/539038-texas-lawmakers-tweets-mocking-california-power-outages-resurface-amid-winter-storm">over-regulation caused widespread outages in California</a> amid extreme heat and wildfires in the summer of 2020.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/LASCI">engineering professor</a> studying <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=I5tDhsoAAAAJ&hl=en">infrastructure resilience under climate change</a>, I worry about the rising risk of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.015">climate-triggered outages nationwide</a>. In my view, the events in Texas offer three important lessons for energy planners across the U.S. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ANGcms9OQd8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme weather poses a growing threat to power systems across the U.S.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not enough attention to climate extremes</h2>
<p>Experts widely agree that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or <a href="http://www.ercot.com/">ERCOT</a>, the nonprofit corporation that manages the power grid for most of the state, failed to anticipate <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/02/17/the-freeze-in-texas-exposes-americas-infrastructural-failings">how sharply demand would spike</a> prior to the February cold wave. ERCOT has a record of lacking capacity to meet winter demand surges. The state grid <a href="https://www.statesman.com/article/20110411/NEWS/304119704">nearly collapsed during a 2011 winter storm</a> and experienced another <a href="https://www.statesman.com/article/20140107/BUSINESS/301079651">close call</a> in 2014, narrowly avoiding rolling blackouts.</p>
<p>But grid operators elsewhere have also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67695-y">underestimated how climate extremes can influence electricity demand</a>. I see many similarities between <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/19/power-outages-texas-california-climate-crisis">California’s summer 2020 power crisis</a> and recent events in Texas.</p>
<p>In both cases, extreme weather caused an unexpected increase in demand and reduced generation capacity at the same time. Because energy operators did not foresee these effects, they had to <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/18/texas-power-outages-ercot/">resort to rolling blackouts</a> to avert even bigger disasters.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1294479825910943746"}"></div></p>
<p>In studies I have conducted in my research lab and in collaboration with <a href="https://scholar.google.de/citations?user=mU4l0vIAAAAJ&hl=en">hydroclimatologist Rohini Kumar</a>, we have found that energy planners in many parts of the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8">substantially underestimate</a> how sensitive electricity demand is to climate factors. This tendency has significant implications for the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13192">security and reliability of the power systems</a>. </p>
<p>For example, in a study published in April 2020 we analyzed the use of artificial intelligence models for energy forecasting that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8">accounted for the role of humidity</a> in addition to air temperature. We found that such models could make forecasts of energy demand for air conditioning on hot days significantly more accurate across the U.S. More accurate demand forecasts help energy planners understand how much power they will need to meet peak demand during weather extremes.</p>
<p>Grid operators can prepare more effectively for the effects of climate change on both supply and demand by using forecasting models and software that academic researchers have already developed. Many of these new solutions have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8">published in open-access journals</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing demand increases in Minneapolis, Madison, Chicago, Cleveland, Columbus and Indianapolis." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Results published in the journal Climactic Change from a model that predicts how much summertime electricity and water use in Midwest cities could increase due to climate change between 2030 and 2052. These projections only consider climate effects, not other factors such as population growth or technological shifts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.purdue.edu/uns/images/2020/nateghi-cities.jpg">Greg Simmons/Purdue University</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Water, electricity and natural gas are connected</h2>
<p>Electricity, water and natural gas are essential resources, and it’s hard to have any of them without the others. For example, drilling for natural gas consumes electricity and water. Many power plants burn natural gas to generate electricity. And transporting water and gas requires electricity to pump them through pipelines.</p>
<p>Because of these tight connections, outages in one system are bound to ripple through the others and create a cascade of service disruptions. For example, during the Texas cold wave, pumps used to extract gas in West Texas <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/">could not operate</a> because of electricity outages. This cut state gas field production in half, which in turn strained gas-fired electricity production. Power failures also <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/20/texas-power-water-outages/">hampered water pumping and treatment</a>, potentially allowing bacteria to <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/weather/texas-power-outages-safe-drinking-water-20210219.html">seep into water supplies</a>. </p>
<p>In a collaborative project connecting researchers at <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832688&HistoricalAwards=false">Purdue University</a>, the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832711">University of Southern California</a>, and the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832683">University of California-Santa Cruz</a>, we are analyzing ways to prevent this kind of cascading outage. One promising strategy is to install distributed generation sources, such as solar panels or small wind turbines with batteries, at critical interconnection points between energy, water and natural gas systems.</p>
<p>For their part, consumers also need to understand these connections. Taking a hot shower or running a dishwasher consumes water, along with electricity or gas to heat it. These crunch points often cause trouble during crises. For instance, recent advisories urging Texans to boil their water before using it put extra pressure on already-scarce energy supplies.</p>
<p>Our research shows that utilities need to pay more attention to connections between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114419">natural gas and electricity</a>, and between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113466">water and electricity</a>. By doing so, planners can see more accurately how climate conditions will affect demand, particularly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02669-7">under climate change</a>. Rampant gas shortages and electricity and water outages in Texas are a sign that infrastructure operators need to understand more clearly how tightly related these resources are, not only during normal operation but also during crises that can disrupt all of them at once. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People bundled in blankets sit on chairs in a furniture showroom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People with no power at their homes rest inside a Gallery Furniture store in Houston after the owner opened the business as a shelter on Feb. 16, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WinterWeatherTexasPowerFailures/7fb328d93ba34b48a68c84cfca9fb3a4/photo?Query=winter%20weather%20blackouts&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=222&currentItemNo=43">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future will be different</h2>
<p>Some commentaries on the Texas disaster have called it a “<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp">black swan event</a>” that could never have been predicted – or even worse, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2021/02/20/a-dangerous-narrative-emerges-in-the-wake-of-texas-power-blackouts/?sh=cc2f06e3ab21">a “meteor strike</a>.” In fact, the state published a <a href="http://tdem.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/txHazMitPlan.pdf">hazard mitigation plan</a> in 2018 that clearly warned of the potential for severe winter weather to cause widespread outages. And it noted that such events would be far more disruptive in Texas than in other regions that experience harsher winters. </p>
<p>In a 2016 study, several colleagues and I warned that current grid reliability metrics and standards across the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12401">were inadequate</a>, especially with respect to climate risks. We concluded that those standards “fail to provide a sufficient incentive structure for the utilities to adequately ensure high levels of reliability for end‐users, particularly during large‐scale climate events.” </p>
<p>As I see it, a dominant paradigm of “faster, better, cheaper” in energy planning is placing increasing pressure on our nation’s aging infrastructure. I believe it is time for energy planners to be more proactive and make smart investments in measures that will help power systems handle extreme weather events.</p>
<p>Key steps should include leveraging <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2792680">predictive analytics</a> to inform disaster planning; accounting for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-72207-z">climate uncertainty</a> in infrastructure management; upgrading reliability standards for power transmission and distribution systems; and diversifying the mix of fuels that all states use to generate electricity. Without such steps, frequent disruptions of critical services could become the new norm, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-15-000-electricity-bills-in-texas-155822">high costs</a> and heavy impacts – especially on the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/16/climate/texas-blackout-storm-minorities.html">most vulnerable Americans</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155834/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roshanak (Roshi) Nateghi receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>
There will be more weather-driven disasters like February’s deep freeze in Texas, and energy planners aren’t prepared.
Roshanak (Roshi) Nateghi, Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/155308
2021-02-22T14:50:25Z
2021-02-22T14:50:25Z
The basis of South Africa’s annual budgets needs an overhaul. Here’s why, and how
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385545/original/file-20210222-15-19y6588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This week South Africa's finance minister Tito Mboweni will deliver the country's medium term budget review.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Jeffrey Abrahams/Gallo Images via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Governments in most developing countries use medium-term expenditure frameworks as fiscal policy instruments to match the imperatives of policy, planning and budgeting over the medium-term horizon. </p>
<p>South Africa <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/mtbps/1998/speech.pdf">adopted the framework</a> in 1998.</p>
<p>Countries with strong ties to the Bretton Woods institutions – the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank – have <a href="https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/2157.pdf">adopted the medium-term expenditure framework</a> as the main driver of budget policy. Like macroeconomic management orthodoxy, the <a href="https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/2476.pdf">Washington consensus</a> forms the basis of this approach. The World Bank’s push for the adoption of frameworks has been subtle. For instance since 1991, they have been an integral part of the Bank’s products such as <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2013/fiscalpolicy/pdf/brumby.pdf">technical assistance, lending operations, and analytical and advisory services</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2013/fiscalpolicy/pdf/brumby.pdf">thrust</a> of medium-term expenditure frameworks is budgeting and public financial management. Indeed, the planning inherent in them is financial planning. That is the problem. They facilitate multi-year budget planning. Since the framework is an expenditure planning tool, it pays little attention to comprehensive economic development. </p>
<p>Budgeting is an important feature of economic management, the precursor to any development plans. Just like households, the limited resources that accrue to government have to be distributed across many competing demands. The question is, budgeting to what ends? It is here that we seem to have lost the plot. We lack a cogent development plan that drives the budget process. </p>
<p>Medium-term expenditure frameworks can be useful only when they are based on comprehensive medium-term development plans. </p>
<h2>Economic transformation</h2>
<p>No country since the Second World War has transitioned from a developing to a developed country without recourse to <a href="https://www.dbsa.org/EN/About-Us/Publications/Documents/DPD%20No%208.%20Comparative%20development%20planning.pdf">systematic economic development planning</a>. <a href="https://www.ndc.gov.tw/en/Content_List.aspx?n=16081B8F505ABB7B">Taiwan</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/30172285.pdf?casa_token=KOsd_90OAngAAAAA:2C_V2-uHndhWRAOlMget6CemjZbLD38IjzA3PGOiI59y_X2AjvSbyW3abhMdSA1DWFT22i8FJ49ATWqt3GFD2l9lCB1B6qpyp4IhExYqzHfhnLZSz3U">South Korea</a>, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cje/article-abstract/19/6/735/1688941?redirectedFrom=fulltext">Singapore</a>, and <a href="https://en.ndrc.gov.cn/">China</a> are some of the countries that have seen an incredible transformation over the past 50 years. </p>
<p>Each has adopted (mostly five-year) medium-term economic development planning as an instrument of development. The budgets of these countries have always been premised on the requirements of the medium-term plans. </p>
<p>Over two decades, South Africa has developed its own ritual. This involves a <a href="https://www.gov.za/state-nation-address">state of the nation address</a> by the president to mark the opening of parliament, followed – usually a week later – by the presentation of the budget by the finance minister. This <a href="http://www.treasury.gov.za/publications/guidelines/2021%20MTEF%20guidelines.pdf">involves</a> setting out policy priorities, tax policies, and division of revenue among various tiers of government. </p>
<p>But the lack of progress on crucial development benchmarks over the past two decades suggests that it’s time to reflect and question the effectiveness of the medium-term expenditure frameworks as an instrument of true economic development.</p>
<p>Since the turn of the century average incomes in South Africa have been stagnant – the average annual growth rate is 1.1%. At this rate it would take two generations for average incomes today to double. The Human Development Indicator, a broader measure of economic development, also shows that South Africa’s economic development over the past two decades has been well below comparator countries in the <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/ZAF.pdf">high human development group</a>. </p>
<p>Nor is pursing economic growth the panacea. Take <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/botswana/overview">Botswana</a>, which has recorded impressive economic growth numbers for more than 50 years. According to the <a href="https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators#">World Bank Group’s database</a>, Botswana recorded a real GDP growth rate of 8% a year over the period 1971 to 2019.</p>
<p>Yet one out of five people is poor and without a job. </p>
<p>Over the same period, South Korea, like the three other East Asian countries that underwent a phenomenal rate of industrialisation between the 1960s and the 1990s, recorded a growth rate of 7%. </p>
<p>So why has Botswana not achieved the same level of economic development as South Korea, Singapore or Taiwan? </p>
<p>The answer is: it failed to adopt an economic policy strategy that could produce real economic development. Even though Botswana has had <a href="https://www.finance.gov.bw/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=28&Itemid=126">development plans</a>, they have not had the preeminent role in economic management as compared to those of the East Asian countries. As a result they have been ineffective: the incredibly low level of industrialisation and high level of unemployment in Botswana after decades of economic growth points to this.</p>
<p>The stark contrast in economic development between Botswana and South Korea is instructive. South Korea has drawn on economic development planning and the allocative strengths of markets. </p>
<p>The Korean economy, which was largely agrarian, has been transformed into an industrial giant over <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783030107697">four decades</a>. The country can also boast of global corporate giants such as Samsung, SK Holdings and the Hyundai Group, among many others. </p>
<p>The country’s unemployment rate of 5.4% reported in January 2021 is reckoned to be <a href="https://asian-links.com/gdp/south-korea-largest-companies">the highest in two decades</a>. </p>
<p>The country has used medium-term development plans since the Korean Development Board was set up in 1961. Each plan has had very clear economic development objectives. The development plans have then informed the expenditure framework. South Korea – and most of the successful Asian countries – drew on the positives of centralised planning and a price-mediated market system to drive economic development. </p>
<p>Even today, most of these countries continue to guide their economic development path with the aid of well thought through medium-term national development plans.</p>
<p>A distinctive feature of the development planning structures in the East Asian countries was the way they operated. They ensured <a href="https://www.kdi.re.kr/kdi_eng/publications/publication_view.jsp?pub_no=13671">an effective integration</a> of planning, financial resource allocation, monitoring and evaluation. </p>
<h2>What’s needed</h2>
<p>The international financial institutions have often <a href="https://www.dbsa.org/EN/About-Us/Publications/Documents/DPD%20No%208.%20Comparative%20development%20planning.pdf">denigrated centralised planning</a> </p>
<p>In the 1960s when most newly independent countries in Africa took to planning, it was seen as anathema by neoclassical economists. Rather, the West and the international financial institutions promoted unbridled free-market ideals. Yet there has not been a single country in the global South that has developed by strict adherence to free-market ideals. </p>
<p>It is in this vein that South Africa’s quest for economic development and improved well-being of its population has to be interrogated. The <a href="https://www.gov.za/issues/national-development-plan-2030#">National Development Plan</a>, which was released in 2012, only constituted a vision. It is thus not surprising that most of its objectives have eluded the country. The country has failed to distil its vision into medium-term development plans that could drive the national budget cycles. </p>
<p>What South Africa needs now is a comprehensive medium-term economic development plan. This would ensure that the country’s intractable social and economic problems are addressed in an integrated fashion. The problems are often interrelated. </p>
<p>Implementation should be coordinated by a super-ministry. In the case of South Korea the “super-ministry” controlled four levers of economic management: planning, budgeting, material resource mobilisation and the statistical service. The ministry was headed by the deputy prime minister. </p>
<p>A poignant observation that forms a thread that runs through the diverse East Asia development models is the role of government. The acute limitation of the market in facilitating efficient allocation of resources underscores the critical role of government intervention in fostering economic development. The dominant view that countries can outsource the economic development enterprise to the private sector is a ruse. </p>
<p>The developed countries in the West, the chief proponents of the Washington consensus, don’t even believe in the pre-eminence of markets. The massive government intervention in the wake of the pandemic and the pivoting towards <a href="https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/public-policy/article/21154441/the-us-has-an-emerging-industrial-policy-biden-should-build-on-it">the overt adoption of industrial policies</a> by the US is ample demonstration of why South Africa has to look East for economic development lessons.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155308/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Kofi Ocran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Medium-term expenditure frameworks can be useful only when they are based on comprehensive medium-term development plans.
Matthew Kofi Ocran, Professor of Economics, University of the Western Cape
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/147548
2020-12-09T13:19:48Z
2020-12-09T13:19:48Z
Workers are looking for direction from management – and any map is better than no map
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373697/original/file-20201208-17-13r1k09.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=297%2C154%2C7051%2C3371&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Workers need a map to lead them through the crisis.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/battle-tactics-royalty-free-image/478690919">PeopleImages/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over eight months ago, with haste and necessity, workers and organizations across the globe were thrown into “the <a href="https://hbr.org/2020/07/the-implications-of-working-without-an-office">great remote work experiment</a>.” </p>
<p>What was arguably an adequate short-term solution is now showing signs of wear and tear: Remote workers <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/remote-work-burnout-is-growing-as-coronavirus-pandemic-stretches-on.html">are burning out</a>, organizational cultures are <a href="https://hbr.org/2020/08/dont-let-the-pandemic-sink-your-company-culture">under threat</a>, and leaders are fretting about the loss of <a href="https://www.cio.co.ke/apples-tim-cook-shares-his-companys-wfh-experience/">creativity and collaboration</a>. </p>
<p>While some companies are beginning to forge ahead with longer-term plans – like proclaiming that <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/twitter-tells-employees-they-can-work-from-home-forever.html">remote work will go on indefinitely</a> or <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/business/economy/coronavirus-office.html">bringing at least some employees back to the office</a> in a COVID-19-safe way – most organizations remain in a holding pattern: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/technology/offices-reopening-delay-coronavirus.html">intent on returning to the physical office in some capacity</a>, but repeatedly kicking the can down the road. </p>
<p>This is understandable, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-54253776">given the amount of uncertainty</a> about the pandemic. Although a <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/who-hails-covid-vaccine-progress-urges-nations-double-down-mitigation">vaccine seems to be in sight</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/health-officials-warn-americans-not-to-let-their-guard-down/2387692/">health officials are warning</a> of a grim winter. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.uml.edu/msb/faculty/latham-scott.aspx">management</a> <a href="https://www.uml.edu/msb/faculty/humberd-beth.aspx">scholars</a> actively researching and advising companies on their responses to COVID-19, we believe the consequences of <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/as-you-return-from-the-summer-break-can-you-lead-toward-a-covid-exit">just continuing to wing it</a> are piling up. </p>
<p>This doesn’t mean the only solution is an immediate return to the office. Based on research in our field and lessons we’ve learned from our work with companies during the pandemic, we believe there’s a way to make the best of a tough situation. It requires acknowledging the real costs of the remote work experiment – and charting a path forward.</p>
<h2>Employee burnout</h2>
<p>The remote work experiment seemed to offer an <a href="https://hbr.org/2020/08/research-knowledge-workers-are-more-productive-from-home">initial boost</a> in productivity. But sustaining such productivity has been difficult, in part because the <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2020/03/30/productivity-pitfalls-working-home-age-covid-19/">home wasn’t designed for work</a> and the consequences of <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/coronavirus-zoom-fatigue-is-taxing-the-brain-here-is-why-that-happens/">“Zoom” fatigue</a> are real. Indeed, emerging evidence suggests <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/remote-work-burnout-is-growing-as-coronavirus-pandemic-stretches-on.html">burnout is plaguing remote workers</a> across the board.</p>
<p>Yet managing employee burnout is particularly difficult during a pandemic, when people are asked to mostly isolate at home, away from <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-office-is-dead-long-live-the-office-in-a-post-pandemic-world-138499">colleagues whose mere presence can often ease work-related stress</a>. <a href="https://hbr.org/2019/09/what-happens-when-teams-fight-burnout-together">Recent research</a> suggests that even small interactions like going out to lunch together and taking a walk can help reduce worker burnout. </p>
<p>Even if <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/enough-of-zoomoffice-happy-hours-return-11601665066">re-creations of after-work rituals help</a> in the short term, poor communication from company leaders is a primary <a href="https://hbr.org/2019/12/burnout-is-about-your-workplace-not-your-people">cause of burnout</a>. Without some sense of direction, burned out employees simply can’t be reengaged via another virtual happy hour. </p>
<h2>Weakened cultures</h2>
<p>Another downside of the lack of interaction with colleagues is the <a href="https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-to-sustain-your-organizations-culture-when-everyone-is-remote/">impact on organizational culture</a>. </p>
<p>We know from research that organizational culture is a key contributor to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2008.05.021">job satisfaction</a> and <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1002/job.1985">organizational performance</a>. Initial hopes of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ceo-3-lessons-learned-remote-work-take-back-to-office-2020-5">strengthened cultures</a> as employees navigated the unprecedented shift together are dwindling as time wears on without a physical anchor for <a href="https://hbr.org/2020/08/dont-let-the-pandemic-sink-your-company-culture">sustaining shared cultural beliefs</a>. </p>
<p>What’s worse, <a href="https://covid19.nj.gov/forms/violation">corporate policies</a> meant to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/26/workplace-apps-tracking-coronavirus-could-test-privacy-boundaries-340525">monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/05/13/854014403/your-boss-is-watching-you-work-from-home-boom-leads-to-more-surveillance">control</a> employee behavior – whether while they work remotely or as means to make the office safer – risk eroding <a href="https://www.inc.com/marissa-levin/harvard-neuroscience-research-reveals-8-ways-to-build-a-culture-of-trust.html">worker trust</a> and <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1111/joms.12625">undermining cultural norms</a>.</p>
<p>And the impact of these policies <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/joms.12625">will likely endure</a> long after the crisis subsides, making it very important for companies to think carefully about the lasting impact and strategies for dealing with COVID-19.</p>
<h2>Interrupted innovation</h2>
<p>A third major cost of this sustained remote period of work is the lack of collaboration and its <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2020/03/30/productivity-pitfalls-working-home-age-covid-19">disruptive impact on innovation</a>. </p>
<p>Sure, some collaborations and idea generation can take place via Zoom meetings, but innovation still largely happens in physical spaces: at <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2259257">lab benches</a>, alongside a <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/nai/ti/2017/00000019/00000001/art00005">3D printer</a> or in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/radm.12261">unintended office interactions</a> that spark interdisciplinary collaborations. These initial steps become the source of intellectual property, new startups, future commercialization and ultimately consumer value. </p>
<p>But when workers can’t get into their labs and research centers, they can’t plant the seeds for future innovations. Overall, patents have <a href="https://www.ipwatchdog.com/2020/11/01/technology-specific-patent-filing-trends-pandemic/id=126901/">fallen almost 10% year to date</a>, with patents in the life sciences down 20%. </p>
<h2>A purpose-driven plan</h2>
<p>Though the pandemic is still with us, organizations and workers need a plan now – and can’t wait for a vaccine to allow everyone to come back to the office. </p>
<p>To us, this isn’t simply about logistics, such as deciding whether, when and how to return to the office, but starting to address the downsides of this sustained remote work experiment by reengaging workers around a <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/07/creating-a-purpose-driven-organization">sense of organizational purpose</a>. </p>
<p>And honestly, it really doesn’t matter all that much what goes into the plan. A long history of scholarship on <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Making_Sense_of_the_Organization.html?id=ZJpCtAEACAAJ">organizations</a> emphasizes that even the most imperfect plan can have positive effects on morale and team confidence. When <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1995-02-13-9502130021-story.html">conditions are uncertain</a>, a plan provides direction, a sense of purpose and foundation for unity. Moreover, it’s a great way to turn a crisis into an opportunity. </p>
<p>For example, some companies we’ve worked with have crafted plans that focus on addressing pre-pandemic threats such as how automation and AI are changing <a href="https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/four-ways-jobs-will-respond-to-automation/">the very nature of work</a>. They’ve been conducting a top-to-bottom review of jobs and roles to better understand which ones are providing the most and least value, and adjusting accordingly. Others, such as local health care organizations in the Boston area, are focusing on accelerating <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-patients-put-remote-care-to-the-test-11602840627">their adoption of technologies</a> to improve the level of care they can provide patients.</p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Making a plan doesn’t require certainty about the path of the virus or committing to a return to the office. Rather, it’s about creating a shared sense of purpose to lead workers through one of the toughest periods in world history. </p>
<p>The value of having a plan reminds us of an anecdote – frequently shared by management scholars – <a href="https://www.tolstoytherapy.com/brief-thoughts-on-maps-miroslav-holub/">involving a Hungarian army platoon</a> briefly thought lost in the Alps during a snowstorm during World War I. Gone for two days, the soldiers suddenly showed up on the third. Asked how they survived, the group leader showed his commander the map that led them back. The punchline: It depicted the Pyrenees, not the Alps.</p>
<p>While it’s not clear if the story is factually based, the message still rings true: In times of uncertainty, often any map will do – even a wrong one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147548/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Although the end of the pandemic may be in sight, the costs of working remotely are growing. It’s time companies had a plan – even if they aren’t returning to the office any time soon.
Scott F. Latham, Associate Professor of Strategic Management, UMass Lowell
Beth Humberd, Associate Professor of Management, UMass Lowell
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/144099
2020-08-11T08:29:34Z
2020-08-11T08:29:34Z
England planning proposals aim to tackle housing crisis – but overlook key issues
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351995/original/file-20200810-20-1elzbny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C8%2C5946%2C4122&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/newly-built-homes-residential-estate-england-403894573">Duncan Andison/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The government has published <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/planning-for-the-future">proposals</a> for a radical reform of the planning system in England. This reform could have significant implications for our built and natural environments, as well as for local democracy.</p>
<p>The proposals contain ideas which could have a positive impact, such as greater use of digital technology. However, there are also great risks associated with these reforms. </p>
<p>My research has shown the difficulties inherent in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2012.725550">implementing planning reform</a>. Furthermore, the government has not fully established the need for such radical change.</p>
<h2>Housing crisis</h2>
<p>A central claim in the proposals is that the UK’s existing planning system has been a strong driver of the housing crisis. This is generally understood as insufficient new housing being built to meet demand, particularly in London, and and a lack of affordable housing <a href="https://www.nao.org.uk/report/housing-in-england-overview/">across the country</a>.</p>
<p>The government claims this is because the UK planning system takes a discretionary approach. This means that a proposed development is not automatically given permission on the basis of its match with the policies in the plans made by local councils. Each scheme is also subject to a case-by-case basis on its merits before planning permission is granted.</p>
<p>The proposals suggest that an <a href="https://lichfields.uk/blog/2018/may/14/should-zoning-be-introduced-in-england/">approach based on zoning</a> is required instead. Under this approach, there is no debate about the advantages and disadvantages of a particular scheme, just the general principles governing development in an area.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Car park and house under grey sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351945/original/file-20200810-24-2a29i9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/351945/original/file-20200810-24-2a29i9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351945/original/file-20200810-24-2a29i9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351945/original/file-20200810-24-2a29i9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351945/original/file-20200810-24-2a29i9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351945/original/file-20200810-24-2a29i9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/351945/original/file-20200810-24-2a29i9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A house created through a permitted development conversion in Bristol, England.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ben Clifford</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Individual schemes will automatically be allowed so long as they comply with the plan requirements, including locally developed design codes. To support this, local plans will zone areas as for “growth”, “renewal” or “protection”.</p>
<p>Alongside the move to zoning, greater use would be made of digital approaches, with maps showing which rules apply to any particular site. In addition, the current system sees local authorities negotiate the contribution that a developer makes towards affordable housing and local infrastructure on a case-by-case basis. This would be replaced by standardised tariffs. </p>
<h2>Missing issues</h2>
<p>There has been some <a href="https://www.tcpa.org.uk/blog/blog-the-wrong-answers-to-the-wrong-questions">concern expressed</a> about these proposals. The government makes comparisons with lower house prices in other countries to suggest that the planning system in England is at fault. Planning does impact housing supply and house prices – but so do a range of other factors. </p>
<p>The proposals have little to say about issues related to our <a href="https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/the-invisible-land">land market</a> and patterns of land ownership. It does not consider that in other countries, more proactive <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_capital_gains_report_.pdf">local state action</a> in land assembly (buying sites and preparing them for development) helps the process of building. </p>
<p>It overlooks the potential of <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7671/CBP-7671.pdf">local authorities</a> rather than private developers to deliver <a href="https://www.rtpi.org.uk/research/2019/july/local-authority-direct-delivery-of-housing-ii-continuation-research/">new housing</a>. It ignores the way the private sector manages <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/718878/Build_Out_Review_Draft_Analysis.pdf">the rate of building out new housing</a> even when it has planning permission, in order to maintain profitability. More fundamentally, it ignores the way flows of investment income impact <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/why-can-t-you-afford-a-home-1.3730413">housing demand</a> and so affordability.</p>
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<img alt="Field with city in distance" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352004/original/file-20200810-22-1e6tgig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352004/original/file-20200810-22-1e6tgig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352004/original/file-20200810-22-1e6tgig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352004/original/file-20200810-22-1e6tgig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352004/original/file-20200810-22-1e6tgig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352004/original/file-20200810-22-1e6tgig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352004/original/file-20200810-22-1e6tgig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The proposals do not consider reform of the green belt.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/london-north-downs-reigate-hill-surrey-1473591362">Jono Photography/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Further, it does not tackle the thorny issue of <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/geography-and-environment/research/green-belt">green belt reform</a>. The large swathe of land protected from development around London will continue under these reforms, meaning that housing pressures in the <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/288845/10-634-land-use-futures-summary.pdf">south-east</a> will be harder to tackle. </p>
<p>In other words, the reforms suggest the planning system is to blame for the housing crisis without acknowledging the multi-faceted nature of that crisis. Without tackling various other factors, it will fail to resolve the issues it seeks to address. </p>
<p>At the same time, the proposals come with some significant downsides. There is reduced opportunity for community consultation. At present, local communities can be engaged when individual proposals are made. This consultation on individual schemes looks set to disappear, reducing the opportunity to capture local knowledge or promote social justice.</p>
<h2>Housing quality</h2>
<p>The proposals act to reduce the ability of local authorities to exercise planning control. This continues an existing trend that allows more types of development to follow a streamlined planning consent route, known as permitted development. My own research, with colleagues, has found that this deregulation has led to significant reductions in the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/quality-standard-of-homes-delivered-through-change-of-use-permitted-development-rights">quality of new housing</a> delivered.</p>
<p>The government is placing great emphasis on the need for schemes to comply with design codes in future, but the rhetoric has very much been about the exterior appearance of buildings – an aesthetic approach to design – rather than how well they work as homes for people to live in. </p>
<p>The fact the government is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2020/jul/24/our-slum-future-the-planning-shakeup-set-to-blight-british-housing">still not requiring</a> new permitted development housing to meet their own suggested <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524531/160519_Nationally_Described_Space_Standard____Final_Web_version.pdf">space standards</a> is reason enough to be deeply concerned about the future, when local authorities will have much reduced power to negotiate improvements to schemes.</p>
<p>More broadly, the proposals have little to say about climate change and sustainability. The impacts of previous government reforms and <a href="https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Planning-for-new-homes.pdf">austerity</a> reductions to spending on local planning skills and resources are not also discussed. Planning is reduced in the white paper to little more than a licensing process for housebuilding. </p>
<p>Any regulatory system comes with costs, but there can also be benefits and the value of planning is often <a href="https://www.rtpi.org.uk/policy-and-research/programmes/value-of-planning/">overlooked in analyses</a>. A more positive view for the potential of planning is urgently needed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144099/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Clifford has received funding from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government for research on permitted development. He is a member of the Royal Town Planning Institute. All views expressed in this article are his own. </span></em></p>
The government has proposed radical reforms to the planning system in England.
Ben Clifford, Associate Professor in Spatial Planning and Government, UCL
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/137943
2020-08-05T09:51:42Z
2020-08-05T09:51:42Z
Is humanity doomed because we can’t plan for the long term? Three experts discuss
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350170/original/file-20200729-13-ixpr95.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/zcES7JNIowE">sergio souza/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are still unclear, it is certain that they are a profound shock to the systems underpinning contemporary life. </p>
<p>The World Bank <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects">estimates</a> that global growth will contract by between 5% and 8% globally in 2020, and that COVID-19 will push between 71-100 million into extreme poverty. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be hit hardest. In developed countries health, leisure, commercial, educational and work practices are being reorganised – some say for good – in order to facilitate the forms of social distancing being advocated by experts and (sometimes reluctantly) promoted by governments.</p>
<p>Each of us has been affected by the changes wrought by COVID-19 in different ways. For some, the period of isolation has afforded time for contemplation. How do the ways in which our societies are currently structured enable crises such as this? How might we organise them otherwise? How might we use this opportunity to address other pressing global challenges, such climate change or racism? </p>
<p>For others, including those deemed vulnerable or “essential workers”, such reflections may have instead been directly precipitated from a more visceral sense of their exposure to danger. Had adequate preparations been made for events such as COVID-19? Were lessons being learnt not only to manage crises such as these when they happen again, but to prevent them from happening in the first place? Is the goal of getting back to normality adequate, or should we instead be seeking to refashion normality itself?</p>
<p>Such profound questions are commonly prompted by major events. When our sense of normality is shattered, when our habits get disrupted, we are made more aware that the world could be otherwise. But are humans capable of enacting such lofty plans? Are we capable of planning for the long-term in a meaningful way? What barriers might exist and, perhaps more pressingly, how might we overcome them in order to create a better world?</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em> </p>
<hr>
<p>As experts from three different academic disciplines whose work considers the capacity to engage in long-term planning for unanticipated events, such as COVID-19, in different ways, our work interrogates such questions. So is humanity in fact able to successfully plan for the longterm future?</p>
<p>Robin Dunbar, an evolutionary psychologist at the University of Oxford, argues that our obsession with short-term planning may be a part of human nature – but possibly a surmountable one. Chris Zebrowski, an emergency governance specialist from Loughborough University, contends that our lack of preparedness, far from being natural, is a consequence of contemporary political and economic systems. Per Olsson, sustainability scientist and expert in sustainability transformations from the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University, reflects on how crisis points can be used to change the future – drawing on examples from the past in order to learn how to be more resilient going into the future.</p>
<h2>We are built this way</h2>
<p><em>Robin Dunbar</em></p>
<p>COVID-19 has highlighted three key aspects of human behaviour that seem unrelated but which, in fact, arise from the same underlying psychology. One was the bizarre surge in panic buying and stockpiling of everything from food to toilet rolls. A second was the abject failure of most states to be prepared when experts had been warning governments for years that a pandemic would happen sooner or later. The third has been the exposure of the fragility of globalised supply chains. All three of these are underpinned by the same phenomenon: a strong tendency to prioritise the short term at the expense of the future.</p>
<p>Most animals, including humans, are notoriously bad at taking the long term consequences of their actions into account. Economists know this as the “<a href="https://sk.sagepub.com/reference/socialpsychology/n428.xml">public good dilemma</a>”. In conservation biology, it is known as the “<a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ff4c/f60d1b9e75f4b63245f07736c2366ed9db63.pdf#page=2">poacher’s dilemma</a>” and also also, more colloquially, as “the tragedy of the commons”.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CxC161GvMPc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>If you are a logger, should you cut down the last tree in the forest, or leave it standing? Everyone knows that if it is left standing, the forest will eventually regrow and the whole village will survive. But the dilemma for the logger is not next year, but whether he and his family will survive until tomorrow. For the logger, the economically rational thing to do is, in fact, to cut the tree down. </p>
<p>This is because the future is unpredictable, but whether or not you make it to tomorrow is absolutely certain. If you die of starvation today, you have no options when it comes to the future; but if you can make through to tomorrow, there is a chance that things might have improved. Economically, it’s a no-brainer. This is, in part, why we have overfishing, deforestation and climate change.</p>
<p>The process underpinning this is known to psychologists as discounting the future. Both animals and humans <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_preference">typically prefer</a> a small reward now to a larger reward later, unless the future reward is very large. The ability to resist this temptation is dependent on the frontal pole (the bit of the brain right just above your eyes), one of whose functions is to allow us to inhibit the temptation to act without thinking of the consequences. It is this small brain region that allows (most of) us to politely leave the last slice of cake on the plate rather than wolf it down. In primates, the bigger this brain region is, the better they are at these kinds of decisions.</p>
<p>Our social life, and the fact that we (and other primates) can manage to live in large, stable, bonded communities depends entirely on this capacity. Primate social groups are implicit social contracts. For these groups to survive in the face of the ecological costs that group living necessarily incur, people must be able to forego some of their selfish desires in the interests of everyone else getting their fair share. If that doesn’t happen, the group will very quickly break up and disperse.</p>
<p>In humans, failure to inhibit greedy behaviour quickly leads to excessive inequality of resources or power. This is probably the single most common cause of civil unrest and revolution, from the French Revolution to <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/hong-kong-protests-73625">Hong Kong</a> today.</p>
<p>The same logic underpins economic globalisation. By switching production elsewhere where production costs are lower, homegrown industries can reduce their costs. The problem is that this occurs at a cost to the community, due to increased social security expenditure to pay for the now redundant employees of home industries until such time as they can find alternative employment. This is a hidden cost: the producer doesn’t notice (they can sell more cheaply than they could otherwise have done) and the shopper doesn’t notice (they can buy cheaper).</p>
<p>There is a simple issue of scale that feeds into this. Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/%28SICI%291520-6505%281998%296%3A5%3C178%3A%3AAID-EVAN5%3E3.0.CO%3B2-8">natural social world</a> is very small scale, barely village size. Once community size gets large, our interests switch from the wider community to a focus on self-interest. Society staggers on, but it becomes an unstable, increasingly fractious body liable at continual risk of fragmenting, as all historical empires have found.</p>
<p>Businesses provide a smaller-scale example of these effects. The average lifetime of companies in the FTSE100 index has <a href="https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-winning-organizations-last-100-years">declined dramatically</a> in the last half-century: three-quarters have disappeared in just 30 years. The companies that have survived turn out to be those that have a long term vision, are not interested in get-rich-quick strategies to maximise returns to investors and have a vision of social benefit. Those that have gone extinct have largely been those that pursued short term strategies or those that, because of their size, lacked the structural flexibility to adapt (think holiday operator <a href="https://theconversation.com/thomas-cook-tourism-experts-explain-the-travel-companys-collapse-124054">Thomas Cook</a>).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348605/original/file-20200721-27-1njrm2m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Our natural social world is barely village-size.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rob Curran/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Much of the problem, in the end, comes down to scale. Once a community exceeds a certain size, most of its members become strangers: we lose our sense of commitment both to others as individuals and to the communal project that society represents.</p>
<p>COVID-19 may be the reminder many societies need to rethink their political and economic structures into a more localised form which is closer to their constituents. Of course, these will surely need bringing together in federal superstructures, but the key here is a level of autonomous community-level government where the citizen feels they have a personal stake in the way things work. </p>
<h2>The power of politics</h2>
<p><em>Chris Zebrowski</em></p>
<p>Where size and scale is concerned, it doesn’t get much bigger than the Rideau canal. Stretching over <a href="http://www.rideau-info.com/canal/map-waterway.html">202 kilometres in length</a>, the Rideau canal in Canada is regarded as one of the great engineering feats of the 19th century. Opened in 1832, the canal system was designed to act as an alternative supply route to the vital stretch of the St Lawrence river connecting Montreal and the naval base in Kingston.</p>
<p>The impetus for this project was the threat of resumed hostilities with the Americans following a war fought between the United States, the United Kingdom and their allies <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_1812">from 1812-1815</a>. While the canal would never need to be used for its intended purpose (despite its considerable cost), it is just one example of human ingenuity being paired with significant public investment in the face of an uncertain future threat.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="© Archives of Ontario" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348607/original/file-20200721-33-1q856be.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A section of the Rideau Canal, Thomas Burrowes, 1845.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rideau_Canal#/media/File:Lower_Bytown,_from_the_Barrack_Hill,_near_the_head_of_the_Eighth_Lock_and_Sappers%E2%80%99_Bridge,_1845.jpg">© Archives of Ontario</a></span>
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<p>“Discounting the future” may well be a common habit. But I don’t think that this is an inevitable consequence of how our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/%28SICI%291520-6505%281998%296%3A5%3C178%3A%3AAID-EVAN5%3E3.0.CO%3B2-8">brains are wired</a> or an enduring legacy of our primate ancestry. Our proclivity to short-termism has been socialised. It is a result of the ways we are socially and politically organised today.</p>
<p>Businesses prioritise short-term profits over longer term outcomes because it appeals to shareholders and lenders. Politicians dismiss long-term projects in favour of quick-fix solutions promising instant results which can feature in campaign literature that is distributed every four years. </p>
<p>At the same time, we are surrounded by examples of highly sophisticated, and often well-financed, tools for risk management. The major public works projects, vital social security systems, sizeable military assemblages, complex financial instruments, and elaborate insurance policies which support our contemporary way of life attest to the human capacity to plan and prepare for the future when we feel compelled to do so.</p>
<p>In recent months, the vital importance of emergency preparedness and response systems in managing the COVID-19 crisis has come into full public view. These are highly complex systems which employ horizon scanning, risk registers, preparedness exercises and a variety of other specialist methods to identify and plan for future emergencies before they happen. Such measures ensure that we are prepared for future events, even when we are not entirely sure when (or if) they will materialise. </p>
<p>While we could not predict the scale of the outbreak of COVID-19, previous coronavirus outbreaks in Asia meant we knew it was <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/11/why-werent-we-ready-for-the-coronavirus">a possibility</a>. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been warning about the risks of an <a href="https://www.who.int/influenza/preparedness/en/">international influenza pandemic</a> for many years now. In the UK, the 2016 national preparedness project Exercise Cygnus made abundantly clear that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/revealed-the-secret-report-that-gave-ministers-warning-of-care-home-coronavirus-crisis?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Add_to_Pocket">the country lacked the capacity</a> to adequately respond to a large-scale public health emergency. The danger was clearly identified. What was required to prepare for such a calamity was known. What was lacking was the political will to provide adequate investment in these vital systems.</p>
<p>In many western nations the ascendance of neoliberalism (and accompanying logic of austerity) has contributed to the defunding of many critical services, including emergency preparedness, upon which our safety and security depend. This is in sharp contrast to countries including China, New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam where a commitment to both preparedness and response has ensured a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0967010618817422">rapid suppression</a> of the disease and the minimisation of its disruptive potential to lives and the economy.</p>
<p>While such a diagnosis may first appear to be bleak, there is good reason to find within it some hope. If the causes of short-termism are a product of the ways we are organised, then there is an opportunity for us reorganise ourselves to address them. </p>
<p>Recent studies suggest that the public not only recognises the risk of climate change, but are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/19/britons-want-faster-action-climate-poll">demanding urgent action</a> be taken to stave off this existential crisis. We cannot allow the death and destruction of COVID-19 to have been in vain. In the wake of this tragedy, we must be prepared to radically rethink how we organise ourselves our societies and be prepared to take ambitious actions to ensure the security and sustainability of our species.</p>
<p>Our capacity to deal not only with future pandemics, but larger-scale (<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-or-the-pandemic-of-mistreated-biodiversity-136447">and perhaps not unrelated</a>) threats including climate change will require us to exercise the human capacity for foresight and prudence in the face of future threats. It is not beyond us to do so.</p>
<h2>How to change the world</h2>
<p><em>Per Olsson</em></p>
<p>As much as short-termism and structural issues have come to play out in analyses of the pandemic, those focused on the longer term keep arguing that this is the time for change.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a slew of people arguing that this is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-world-be-like-after-coronavirus-four-possible-futures-134085">once-in-a-generation moment</a> for transformation. Government responses, these writers say, must drive <a href="https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/twi/Report2018.html">far-reaching</a> economic and social change relating to energy and food systems, otherwise we will be vulnerable to more crises in the future. Some go further and claim a <a href="https://goodanthropocenes.net">different world is possible</a>, a more equitable and sustainable society less obsessed with growth and consumption. But transforming multiple systems simultaneously is not an easy task, and it is worth understanding better what we already know about transformations and crisis.</p>
<p>History shows us that crisis does indeed create a unique chance for change. </p>
<p>A classic example is how the oil crisis in 1973 enabled the transition from a car-based society to a cycling nation in the Netherlands. Prior to the energy crisis there was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/05/amsterdam-bicycle-capital-world-transport-cycling-kindermoord">growing opposition to cars</a>, and a social movement emerged in response to the increasingly congested cities and the number of traffic related deaths, especially children.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=433&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/348615/original/file-20200721-35-ddkgr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cycling is a major mode of transport in the Netherlands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/VEXIwDcY1gw">Jace & Afsoon/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another example is the Black Death, the plague that swept Asia, Africa, and Europe in the 14th century. This led to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-can-the-black-death-tell-us-about-the-global-economic-consequences-of-a-pandemic-132793">abolition of feudalism</a> and the strengthening of peasants rights in Western Europe. </p>
<p>But while positive (large-scale) societal change can come out of crises, the consequences are not always better, more sustainable, or more just, and sometimes the changes that emerge are different from one context to another. </p>
<p>For example, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami affected two of Asia’s longest-running insurgencies in Sri Lanka and the Aceh province in Indonesia <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tsunami-anniversary-conflict/tale-of-war-and-peace-in-the-2004-tsunami-idUSTRE5BH01O20091218">very differently</a>. In the former, the armed conflict between the Sri Lankan government and the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam deepened and intensified by the natural disaster. In Aceh meanwhile, it resulted in a historic peace agreement between the Indonesian government and the separatists. </p>
<p>Some of these differences can be explained by the long histories of the conflicts. But the readiness of different groups to further their agenda, the anatomy of the crisis itself, and the actions and strategies following the initial tsunami event also have important parts to play.</p>
<p>It comes as no surprise, then, that the opportunities for change can be seized by self-interested movements and therefore can accelerate non-democratic tendencies. Power can be further consolidated among groups not interested in improving equity and sustainability. We see this <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-31/as-coronavirus-tide-rises-authoritarians-around-the-world-seize-the-moment">right now</a> in places like the Philippines and Hungary.</p>
<p>With many clamouring for change, what gets left out of the discussion is that the scale, speed, and quality of transformations matter. And more importantly, the specific capabilities that are needed to navigate such significant change successfully.</p>
<p>There is often a confusion about what kinds of actions actually make a difference and what should be done now, and by whom. The risk is that opportunities created by the crisis are missed and that efforts – with the best of intentions and all the promises of being innovative – just lead back to the pre-crisis status quo, or to a slightly improved one, or even to a radically worse one. </p>
<p>For example, the financial crisis of 2008 was seized on by some as a moment to transform the finance sector, but the strongest forces pushed the system back to something resembling the pre-crash status quo.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-the-2008-financial-crisis-for-our-coronavirus-recovery-today-recovery-podcast-series-part-six-142203">Lessons from the 2008 financial crisis for our coronavirus recovery today – Recovery podcast series part six</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Systems that create inequality, insecurity, and unsustainable practices are not easily transformed. Transformation, as the word suggests, requires fundamental changes in multiple dimensions such as power, resource flows, roles, and routines. And these shifts must take place at different levels in society, from practices and behaviours, to rules and regulations, to values and worldviews. This involves changing the relationships among humans but also profoundly change the relationships between humans and nature.</p>
<p>We see efforts now during COVID-19 to – at least in principle – commit to these kinds of changes, with ideas once viewed as radical now being deployed by a range of different groups. In Europe, the idea of a green recovery is growing. The city of Amsterdam is considering implementing <a href="https://www.c40knowledgehub.org/s/article/Thriving-Cities-and-the-Amsterdam-City-Doughnut?language=en_US">doughnut economics</a> – an economic system that is intended to deliver ecological and human wellbeing; and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52707551">universal basic income</a> is being rolled out in Spain. All existed before the COVID-19 crisis and have been piloted in some cases, but the pandemic has put rocket boosters under the ideas.</p>
<p>So for those that seek to use this opportunity to create change that will ensure the long-term health, equity, and sustainability of our societies, there are some important considerations. It is critical to dissect the anatomy of the crisis and adjust actions accordingly. Such assessment should include questions about what type of multiple, interacting crises are occurring, what parts of the “status quo” are truly collapsing and what parts remain firmly in place, and who is affected by all of these changes. Another key thing to do is to identify piloted experiments that have reached a certain level of “readiness”.</p>
<p>It is also important to deal with inequalities and <a href="https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/the-evolution-of-social-innovation-9781786431141.html">include marginalised voices</a> to avoid transformation processes becoming dominated and co-opted by a specific set of values and interests. This also means respecting and working with the competing values that will inevitably come into conflict.</p>
<p>How we organise our efforts will define our systems for decades to come. Crises can be opportunities – but only if they are navigated wisely.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
<ul>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-world-needs-pharmaceuticals-from-china-and-india-to-beat-coronavirus-138388?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">The world needs pharmaceuticals from China and India to beat coronavirus
</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-future-do-airlines-have-three-experts-discuss-135365?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">What future do airlines have? Three experts discuss</a></em></p></li>
<li><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/searching-for-misha-the-life-and-tragedies-of-the-worlds-most-famous-polar-bear-137344?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Searching for Misha: the life and tragedies of the world’s most famous polar bear</a></em></p></li>
</ul>
<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137943/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Dunbar has received funding from European Research Council Advanced Research Grant.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Zebrowski receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Per Olsson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
An evolutionary psychologist, politics expert and sustainability scientist discuss the potential for humanity to plan for the long term future.
Robin Dunbar, Professor of Evolutionary Psychology, Department of Experimental Psycology, University of Oxford
Chris Zebrowski, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Loughborough University
Per Olsson, Researcher, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/140348
2020-07-21T19:48:16Z
2020-07-21T19:48:16Z
Sunshine Coast shows the way to create good design loved by communities and put an end to eyesores
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347553/original/file-20200715-31-tklpj0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C449%2C2627%2C1639&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Mary Cairncross Rainforest Discovery Centre respects and incorporates the local landscape.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Guymer Bailey/Scott Burrows/Norman Richards building design + interiors</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Our collective retreat to the safety of our homes during the COVID-19 lockdown has provoked an awakening to the value of local areas for work, play and connecting.</p>
<p>For many of us, the design of buildings, gardens, streets, local parks and shops have all come into closer view.</p>
<p>We’ve had time to notice both good and bad design. We see the things that please us most and the things that are clearly out of place and make us question how they ever got approved in the first place. We all have an opinion about bad design in our local areas.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-time-to-embrace-the-edge-spaces-that-make-our-neighbourhoods-tick-138826">A time to embrace the edge spaces that make our neighbourhoods tick</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347839/original/file-20200716-29-1pjtu1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347839/original/file-20200716-29-1pjtu1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347839/original/file-20200716-29-1pjtu1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347839/original/file-20200716-29-1pjtu1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347839/original/file-20200716-29-1pjtu1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=741&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347839/original/file-20200716-29-1pjtu1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=931&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347839/original/file-20200716-29-1pjtu1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=931&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347839/original/file-20200716-29-1pjtu1t.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=931&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Online book cover.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://web-a-e-prod-marketing.azurewebsites.net/SCD/SCDflipbook.html">Sunshine Coast Council</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In an effort to prevent further bad design taking shape in its area, the Sunshine Coast Council decided to encourage good design by publishing a book, <a href="https://www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au/Development/Development-Tools-and-Guidelines/Sunshine-Coast-Design/Sunshine-Coast-Design-Book">Sunshine Coast Design</a> (available for A$50 in hardcopy or free <a href="https://web-a-e-prod-marketing.azurewebsites.net/SCD/SCDflipbook.html">online</a>).</p>
<p>To produce a design book, it first had to establish what good design means.</p>
<p>The council, developers, architects and the local community came together to lay out principles that contribute to good design in this <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3412.0Main%20Features82018-19?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3412.0&issue=2018-19&num=&view=">fast-growing region</a>. </p>
<h2>Good design reflects what we love</h2>
<p>Good design should surprise and delight us in ways that increase our appreciation of our local places. The collection of natural, landscape and built elements that we love in our local environment should be the foundation for local design.</p>
<p>Examples of what the council considers is already good design on the Sunshine Coast are showcased throughout the book.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347233/original/file-20200714-30-5bxuzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347233/original/file-20200714-30-5bxuzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347233/original/file-20200714-30-5bxuzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347233/original/file-20200714-30-5bxuzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347233/original/file-20200714-30-5bxuzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347233/original/file-20200714-30-5bxuzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347233/original/file-20200714-30-5bxuzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347233/original/file-20200714-30-5bxuzp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Beerwah Town Centre, where these sculptural forms bring together the natural and built environments to create a unique local public space.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Greg Gardner</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The design process known as <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9789813296237" title="Placemaking Fundamentals for the Built Environment">placemaking</a> expands and promotes the best features of our local places, from a local perspective. It is a process of engaging communities in design interventions to create meaningful environments.</p>
<p>The aim of placemaking is for gently curated locales that reflect core community values, rather than generic “cookie-cutter” design solutions. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-turn-a-housing-development-into-a-place-where-people-feel-they-belong-116174">How to turn a housing development into a place where people feel they belong</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This type of intervention can be <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02513625.2018.1562798" title="Exploring Transformative Place-Making within the Comprehensive Spatial Governance of Toronto">transformative</a>. However, to make sure any placemaking is socially equitable and reflects local values, the involvement of government in the process is essential.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347234/original/file-20200714-50-tyw8mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347234/original/file-20200714-50-tyw8mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347234/original/file-20200714-50-tyw8mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347234/original/file-20200714-50-tyw8mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347234/original/file-20200714-50-tyw8mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347234/original/file-20200714-50-tyw8mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347234/original/file-20200714-50-tyw8mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347234/original/file-20200714-50-tyw8mg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Piccabeen Green, Palmwoods Town Square. A central, welcoming place to meet, gather, celebrate, socialise or quietly reflect.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sunshine Coast Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Good design shines on the Sunshine Coast</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au/Development/Development-Tools-and-Guidelines/Sunshine-Coast-Design/Sunshine-Coast-Design-Book">Sunshine Coast Design</a> book is a stand-out example of an approach to placemaking led by a local government and based in community values that are translated into design principles.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347206/original/file-20200713-26-h4geau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347206/original/file-20200713-26-h4geau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347206/original/file-20200713-26-h4geau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347206/original/file-20200713-26-h4geau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347206/original/file-20200713-26-h4geau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347206/original/file-20200713-26-h4geau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347206/original/file-20200713-26-h4geau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347206/original/file-20200713-26-h4geau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Point Perry viewing deck. Showcasing the framing of views and proximity to water that are important to the people of the Sunshine Coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sunshine Coast Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As Sunshine Coast Council Mayor Mark Jamieson <a href="https://www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au/Development/Development-Tools-and-Guidelines/Sunshine-Coast-Design/News-and-Events/SCD-Book-Media-Launch">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>As more people are attracted to live on our Sunshine Coast, we need to encourage design that reflects our region’s values and characteristics and guide a design process that enhances and protects what we love about this place.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The visually evocative book echoes the design elements people value in their local places to guide the development of new places on the Sunshine Coast.</p>
<p>Some other examples of good design showcased in the book include the <a href="https://www.visitsunshinecoast.com/Mary-Cairncross-Scenic-Reserve-Discovery-Centre">Mary Cairncross Rainforest Discovery Centre</a> at Maleny (pictured top) and <a href="https://www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au/Development/Development-Tools-and-Guidelines/Sunshine-Coast-Design/Example-Projects/Two-Tree-House-Detached-Dwelling">Two Tree House</a> private house in Buderim. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347282/original/file-20200714-26-p0sr9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347282/original/file-20200714-26-p0sr9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347282/original/file-20200714-26-p0sr9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347282/original/file-20200714-26-p0sr9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347282/original/file-20200714-26-p0sr9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347282/original/file-20200714-26-p0sr9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347282/original/file-20200714-26-p0sr9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347282/original/file-20200714-26-p0sr9z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two Tree House, by Bark Design.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CFJ</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The community engagement process that underpins the book elicits four simple values expressed by people on the Sunshine Coast:</p>
<ul>
<li>we love our climate</li>
<li>we live within and cherish our landscape</li>
<li>we treasure our oceans, beaches and waterways</li>
<li>we are a community of communities.<br></li>
</ul>
<p>These community values are described in the book as “being at the heart of what makes the Sunshine Coast special”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/city-temperatures-and-city-economics-a-hidden-relationship-between-sun-and-wind-and-profits-116064">City temperatures and city economics, a hidden relationship between sun and wind and profits</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347208/original/file-20200713-34-hx0bud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347208/original/file-20200713-34-hx0bud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347208/original/file-20200713-34-hx0bud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347208/original/file-20200713-34-hx0bud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347208/original/file-20200713-34-hx0bud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347208/original/file-20200713-34-hx0bud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347208/original/file-20200713-34-hx0bud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347208/original/file-20200713-34-hx0bud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Coolum Library, by Majstorovic Architecture, blends into its natural environment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Maccoll</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These community values are expanded to a set of ten design principles identified in workshops with design specialists (architects, urban designers, artists, urban planners) and developers, and tested with community members.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/playing-games-its-a-serious-way-to-win-community-backing-for-change-116171">Playing games? It's a serious way to win community backing for change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These principles should now guide future design to:</p>
<ol>
<li>work with the local climate</li>
<li>create places that respect and incorporate landscape</li>
<li>bring our cultures, arts and heritage to life</li>
<li>capture and frame views and create vistas</li>
<li>strengthen and extend a network of green corridors</li>
<li>be inspired by the natural and built environment</li>
<li>create shady trees that put people first</li>
<li>create welcoming spaces that everyone can enjoy</li>
<li>design places to be resilient and ready for change</li>
<li>create and add value.</li>
</ol>
<p>These principles are not enforceable, but developers, designers and council would be wise to follow them if they want people to continue to love the many special places on the Sunshine Coast.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347215/original/file-20200714-34-1pmm4w2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347215/original/file-20200714-34-1pmm4w2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347215/original/file-20200714-34-1pmm4w2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347215/original/file-20200714-34-1pmm4w2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347215/original/file-20200714-34-1pmm4w2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347215/original/file-20200714-34-1pmm4w2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347215/original/file-20200714-34-1pmm4w2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/347215/original/file-20200714-34-1pmm4w2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palmwoods Town Centre. The timber path and landscaping reflect local style and materials.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Greg Gardner</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They should act as a guide for future development ranging from council parks and buildings to the renewal of shopping strips and new homes and suburbs. All developments should aspire to reflect the elements of the Sunshine Coast that matter to local people. </p>
<p>The reflection of local values in a design guide is something all Australian communities, developers and levels of government can adapt and learn from.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/az0shxWPCfk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurel Johnson provided town planning advice about design regulation to the Sunshine Coast Council during production of the Sunshine Coast Design Book.</span></em></p>
The council, developers, architects and the local community got together to set the principles of what they consider good design in this fast-growing region.
Dr Laurel Johnson, Associate Lecturer in Urban and Regional Planning, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.