The prime minister’s approval ratings have suffered a slump in recent weeks - but at this stage that does not mean anything for next year’s election.
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It appears from recent polling that the more the deputy prime minister is in the spotlight, the worse the Coalition will perform.
Newspoll continues to show Labor ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis, but other polls, and the end of lockdowns on the east coast, may paint a different picture in the coming weeks.
Labor continues to show a strong lead in Newspoll, but Resolve shows a markedly different situation, and much may change before the next election.
Even in the locked down states of NSW and Victoria, incumbent premiers continue to poll well ahead of their rivals.
After the Coalition fell behind Labor federally in recent polls, it appears to have clawed some of that back – and voters are keen on opening up once vaccination rates are high enough.
Polling results suggest the ousting of Michael McCormack in favour of Joyce could hurt the Coalition
Polling reflects wide dissatisfaction with the vaccine rollout. Despite this, the Coalition is still in a winning position for the next election.
Despite sending Victorians into their fourth lockdown, the Andrews government retains a healthy lead in polling and is favoured to win the next election.
Recent polls have shown a disparity between men and women’s support for the prime minister in the wake of horrendous stories about the treatment of women. How can the data help us understand that?
How many Americans really have lost touch with reality?
In the wake of the Capitol riots and baseless claims of election fraud, Trump ends his presidency with his worst approval rating since December 2017.
Whether you are predicting the outcome of an election or studying how effective a new drug is, there will always be some uncertainty. A margin of error is how statisticians measure that uncertainty.
People know a lot about their friends and neighbors – and pollsters can learn from that information, if they ask.
Wisconsin proved to be the ‘tipping point’ state in the US presidential election, which Joe Biden won by just 0.6% - despite being likely to win the popular vote by 4-5%.
What did this year’s election maps rightly or wrongly tell us?
Most polls are pointing to a Biden win, but it will be the “swing states” where the vote is close that will hold the key to who takes the White House.
There was a time when well-known journalists resented preelection polls and didn’t mind saying so. One even said he felt “secret glee and relief when the polls go wrong.” Why did they feel this way?
Nearly three-quarters of fans say they won’t attend games until a vaccine has been developed.
One way in which Latino voters vary is where they or their forebears came from. In states like Florida, that difference matters.
Kontributor teratas
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Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University
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Research Professor at the Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
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Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research, and Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
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Senior Lecturer in Quantitative Social Science and Director of the Sheffield Q-Step Centre (The University of Sheffield); Statistical Ambassador (Royal Statistical Society), University of Sheffield
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Professor of Sociology, University of California, Irvine
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Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College
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Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University
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Professor of Geography, University of Bristol
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Adjunct Research Fellow; Journalist, University of Notre Dame Australia
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PhD Candidate, The University of Western Australia
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Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne
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Senior Project Manager, Murdoch University
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Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney
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Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
