tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/rodrigo-duterte-27372/articlesRodrigo Duterte – The Conversation2023-07-10T12:29:10Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2082722023-07-10T12:29:10Z2023-07-10T12:29:10Z‘Idiots,’ ‘criminals’ and ‘scum’ – nasty politics highest in US since the Civil War<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536078/original/file-20230706-15-1575vv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C26%2C5991%2C3961&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former U.S. President Donald Trump at the Moms for Liberty Joyful Warriors summit in June 2023 in Philadelphia. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-s-president-news-photo/1506161556?adppopup=true">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Joe Biden, “together with a band of his closest thugs, misfits and Marxists, tried to destroy American democracy.” </p>
<p><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/trump-republicans-conjure-familiar-enemy-attacking-democrats-marxists-100187077">This is what Donald Trump said</a> to his supporters hours after pleading not guilty in federal court in June 2023 to his mishandling of classified documents. </p>
<p>The indictment of a former president was shocking, but Trump’s words were not. Twenty years ago, his rhetoric would have been unusual coming from any member of Congress, let alone a party leader. Yet language like this from the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/24/politics/cnn-poll-republican-primary-field/index.html">leading Republican presidential candidate</a> is becoming remarkably common in American politics. </p>
<p>It’s not just Republicans. In 2019, New Jersey Democratic Sen. Cory Booker appeared on a talk show bemoaning Trump’s rhetoric and the lack of civility in politics. But he then went on to <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/454311-cory-booker-my-testosterone-sometimes-makes-me-want-to-punch-trump/">call Trump</a> a “physically weak specimen” and said that his own “testosterone makes me want to” punch Trump.</p>
<p>How bad have things gotten? In <a href="https://www.zeitzoff.com/book-project.html">my new book</a>, I show that the level of nastiness in U.S. politics has increased dramatically. As an indication of that, I collected historical data from The New York Times on the relative frequency of stories involving Congress that contained keywords associated with nasty politics such as “smear,” “brawl” and “slander.” I found that nasty politics is more prevalent than at any time since the U.S. Civil War. </p>
<p>Particularly following the Jan. 6. insurrection by Trump’s supporters, journalists and scholars have focused on the rise of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/us/politics/republican-violent-rhetoric.html">politics of menace</a>. In May 2023, U.S. Capitol Police Chief Tom Manger testified before Congress and <a href="https://wtop.com/congress/2023/05/u-s-capitol-police-facing-more-threats-while-understaffed/">said that</a> one of the biggest challenges the U.S. Capitol Police face today “is dealing with the sheer increase in the number of threats against the members of Congress. It’s gone up over 400% over the last six years.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536074/original/file-20230706-29-jtwzj7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A balding man in a dark blazer and blue shirt standing against a yellow wall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536074/original/file-20230706-29-jtwzj7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536074/original/file-20230706-29-jtwzj7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536074/original/file-20230706-29-jtwzj7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536074/original/file-20230706-29-jtwzj7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536074/original/file-20230706-29-jtwzj7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=609&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536074/original/file-20230706-29-jtwzj7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=609&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536074/original/file-20230706-29-jtwzj7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=609&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Aug. 25, 2017, booking photo of U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte, a Montana Republican who was later convicted of assaulting Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs. Gianforte is now Montana’s governor.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/AssaultChargeGianforte/c65894c8f1414bd0ae3cd66a45399418/photo?Query=(renditions.phototype:horizontal)%20AND%20%20(Gianforte%20reporter)%20&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=32&currentItemNo=6">Gallatin County Detention Center via AP, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From insults to actual violence</h2>
<p>“Nasty politics” is an umbrella term for the <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/30/yes-political-rhetoric-can-incite-violence-222019/">aggressive rhetoric</a> and occasional actual violence that politicians use against domestic political opponents and other domestic groups. </p>
<p>Insults are the least threatening and most common form of nasty politics. These include politicians’ references to opponents as “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/06/27/liz-cheney-electing-idiots/">idiots</a>,” “<a href="https://www.axios.com/2019/09/25/adam-schiff-ukraine-trump-transcript-impeachment">criminals</a>” or “<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/467131-trump-blasts-never-trump-republicans-as-human-scum/">scum</a>.” Leveling accusations or using conspiracy theories to claim an opponent is engaging in <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/28/democrats-trump-russia-investigation-congress-1025919">something nefarious</a> is also common in nasty politics. </p>
<p>Less common – and more ominous – are threats to <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/sheerafrenkel/12-people-who-actually-jailed-their-political-opponents">jail political opponents</a> or encouraging one’s supporters to commit violence against those opponents. </p>
<p>In 2021, Republican U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar of Arizona <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/11/18/1056761894/rep-paul-gosar-is-censured-over-an-anime-video-depicting-him-of-killing-aoc">tweeted</a> out an anime cartoon video of his likeness killing Democratic U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. </p>
<p>The rarest and most extreme examples of nasty politics entail politicians actively engaging in violence themselves. For instance, in 2017, Republican U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte of Montana <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/happened-republican-greg-gianforte-body-slammed-reporter/story?id=58610691">body-slammed</a> a reporter from The Guardian. Gianforte would later win his 2018 election and is the current governor of Montana.</p>
<p>But nasty politics is not just a U.S. phenomenon. </p>
<h2>Deadly words</h2>
<p>In 2016, then-candidate Rodrigo Duterte famously promised Philippine voters that when he was president he would kill 100,000 drug dealers and that “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/18/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-philippines.html">fish will grow fat</a>” from all the bodies in Manila Bay. </p>
<p>In 2017, in a speech on the one-year anniversary of the failed coup attempt against him, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20170715-erdogan-turkey-threatens-chop-off-traitors-heads-coup-anniversary-speech">threatened</a> to “chop off the heads of those traitors.” </p>
<p>Before Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was <a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-721498">murdered by a far-right Jewish extremist</a> in 1995, then-opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu railed against Rabin’s support for territorial compromise with Palestinians. In an op-ed in The New York Times, Netanyahu compared Rabin’s potential peace deal with Palestinians to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1993/09/05/opinion/peace-in-our-time.html">Neville Chamberlain’s</a> appeasement of the Nazis before World War II. In the lead-up to the assassination, Netanyahu spoke at several right-wing rallies at which his supporters held up posters of Rabin in a Nazi uniform, and Netanyahu himself even marched next to a coffin that said “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/opinion/incitement-movie.html">Rabin kills Zionism</a>.” </p>
<p>In Ukraine before the 2022 Russian invasion, the Ukrainian parliament, known as the Rada, many times resembled a meeting of <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-parliament-fight/24934282.html">rival soccer hooligans</a> rather than a functioning legislature. Fights among rivals regularly broke out, including the occasional egging and smoke bomb. In 2012, a full-blown legislative riot occurred in the Rada over the status of the Russian language in Ukraine, with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/26/world/europe/ukraine-parliament-debate-over-language-escalates-into-a-brawl.html">rival lawmakers punching and choking one another</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536076/original/file-20230706-17-zoq2h1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a blue striped shirt, standing among a number of people, raises his clenched fist." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536076/original/file-20230706-17-zoq2h1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536076/original/file-20230706-17-zoq2h1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536076/original/file-20230706-17-zoq2h1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536076/original/file-20230706-17-zoq2h1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536076/original/file-20230706-17-zoq2h1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536076/original/file-20230706-17-zoq2h1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536076/original/file-20230706-17-zoq2h1.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=574&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Philippines presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte clenches his fist during a campaign visit to Silang township, Philippines, on April 22, 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PhilippinesElectionsDuterte/756a5ca3edf046aa91b239aacdb16e0f/photo?Query=(renditions.phototype:horizontal)%20AND%20(persons.person_featured:%22Rodrigo%20Duterte%22)%20AND%20Duterte&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:asc&dateRange=&totalCount=502&currentItemNo=14">AP Photo/Bullit Marquez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Voters don’t like it</h2>
<p>The conventional wisdom for the reason politicians go nasty is that while voters find mudslinging or political brawling distasteful, it’s actually <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/304141-the-dirty-secret-about-negative-campaign-ads-they/">effective</a>. Or that although they won’t admit it, voters secretly like nasty politics. </p>
<p>Yet <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/01/662730647/poll-nearly-4-in-5-voters-concerned-incivility-will-lead-to-violence">polling</a> consistently shows the opposite. </p>
<p>Voters don’t like it when politicians go nasty, are worried it could lead to violence, and reduce their support for those who do use it. That’s what I found in countless surveys in the U.S., Ukraine and Israel, where I did research for my book. Other <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000140">research in the U.S.</a> finds that even ardent Trump supporters reduced their approval for him when he used uncivil language.</p>
<p>So why do politicians use nasty politics? </p>
<p>First, nasty politics grabs attention. </p>
<p>Nasty rhetoric is more likely to get covered in the media, or to get likes, clicks or shares on social media than its civil counterpart. For Trump, some of his most-shared tweets were one <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/us/politics/trump-antifa-terrorist-group.html">labeling antifa</a> a “terrorist” organization and a clip of him <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/02/trump-body-slam-cnn-tweet-violence-reporters-wrestlemania">body-slamming</a> a pro wrestler with CNN’s logo superimposed. </p>
<p>Second, given their attention-grabbing nature, nasty politics can be a particularly important tool for opposition or outsider politicians. These politicians who don’t have the name recognition, or access to the same resources as party leaders, can use nasty politics to get noticed and build a following. </p>
<p>Third, and perhaps most important, nasty politics can be used to signal toughness. This toughness is something that voters seek out when they <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/authoritarian-dynamic/7620B99124ED2DBFC6394444838F455A">feel threatened</a>. This sentiment was best captured in a <a href="https://twitter.com/JerryFalwellJr/status/1045853333007798272?s=20">September 2018 tweet</a> from the Rev. Jerry Falwell Jr., a Trump ally: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Conservatives & Christians need to stop electing “nice guys”. They might make great Christian leaders but the US needs street fighters like @realDonaldTrump at every level of government b/c the liberal fascists Dems are playing for keeps & many Repub leaders are a bunch of wimps!</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>From nasty words to worse</h2>
<p>Nasty politics has important implications for democracy. </p>
<p>It can be a legitimate tool for opposition and outsider politicians to call attention to bad behavior. But it can also be used as a cynical, dangerous tool by incumbents to cling to power that can lead to violence. </p>
<p>For example, in the lead-up to the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump and his supporters concocted a baseless conspiracy that the 2020 election would be stolen. He <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/07/trump-incitement-inflammatory-rhetoric-capitol-riot">implored his supporters</a> to come to Washington on Jan. 6 as part of a rally to support the baseless conspiracy and “Stop the Steal,” and urged followers to “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/us/politics/capitol-mob-trump-supporters.html">Be There. Will Be Wild!</a>” foreshadowing the violence that was to come. </p>
<p>Perhaps most ominously for the near future of U.S. democracy, the growing Trump legal troubles have escalated to violent rhetoric. </p>
<p>After Trump’s indictment in June, Republican U.S. <a href="https://twitter.com/RepAndyBiggsAZ/status/1667241900938502146">Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona tweeted: “We have now reached a war phase. Eye for an eye</a>.”</p>
<p>The uptick in nasty politics in the U.S. is both a symptom of the country’s deeply divided politics and a harbinger of future threats to democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208272/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Zeitzoff has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the Charles Koch Foundation</span></em></p>Studies show, though, that voters don’t like all that nastiness.Thomas Zeitzoff, Associate Professor, School of Public Affairs, American UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2015442023-03-19T11:51:48Z2023-03-19T11:51:48ZWe can’t fight authoritarianism without understanding populism’s allure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515015/original/file-20230313-2080-5bov4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3340%2C2135&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump reacts to the crowd after he finished speaking at a campaign rally in support of Sen. Marco Rubio in Miami in November.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Populists across the globe <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/05/number-of-populist-world-leaders-at-20-year-low">have had a rough couple of years</a>.</p>
<p>Donald Trump in the United States, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom are no longer in power. Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-duterte-idUSKBN1JW28C">respected his country’s constitutional term limit</a> and Mexico’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-mexico-government-caribbean-bb54946eeded89a22445ede82e697619">Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador is stepping down</a> at the end of his presidency too. </p>
<p>Even Canada’s Pierre Poilievre <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/poilievre-dismisses-claims-he-spoke-to-controversial-german-politician-as-categorically-false-1.6291288">chastised his MPs</a> for meeting with a German far-right politician. </p>
<p>But is populism over? Hardly. </p>
<p>Populist politicians of the most recent wave were lucky. Their rule was based on oversized personalities with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12510">lots of charisma</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-populism-has-an-enduring-and-ominous-appeal-199065">Why populism has an enduring and ominous appeal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The leaders of the current phase, however, are smarter and their Machiavellian ambitions grander. In the U.S., a dozen or more newly elected congressional ultra-rightists <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/170441/ron-desantis-presidency-even-worse-trump">are angling</a> to replace Trump at the head of the Republican Party at the first opportunity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A protester holds up a sign with a caricature of Donald Trump behind bars." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters stand in front of Trump Tower in New York in August 2022 demanding his indictment for various alleged misdeeds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Populism 2.0</h2>
<p>The focused populism of 2023 is light years away from the unexpected successes of 2016. The newest class of right-wing populists aims not only to dismantle the guardrails of democracy, but also the most fundamental principles of the rule of law. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.demdigest.org/has-populism-won-the-war-on-liberal-democracy/">This attack is happening</a> in many countries. Populists are moving fast and using targeted strategies to subordinate the legal order to authoritarian rule. </p>
<p>The attack on judicial independence <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/23/israel-judicial-reform-protests-netanyahu-government-supreme-court/">in Israel</a>, the violent occupation of the Supreme Court and Houses of Parliament <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-supreme-court-orders-removal-of-brasilia-governor-ibaneis-rocha-after-protests-11673270708">in Brazil</a>, the arrest and intimidation of journalists <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/18/indian-journalists-bbc-raid-media">in India</a> and the imprisonment of thousands of Russians opposed to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ilya-yashin-valdimir-putin-critic-prison-sentence-ukraine-war-criticism/">Vladimir Putin’s murderous invasion of Ukraine</a> all happened in the past year. </p>
<p>Recent surveys have shown that citizens in democracies around the world increasingly believe that both government and the media are “<a href="https://www.edelman.com/trust/2022-trust-barometer">divisive forces in society</a>.” </p>
<p>Policy experts <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19063265">don’t yet know</a> if populism is a cause or a symptom of polarization. Regardless, trust in the democratic process is eroding.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of women dressed in red robes and white bonnets stand in a row in front of skyscrapers at dusk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Israeli women’s rights activists in Tel Aviv dressed as characters in the popular television series ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’ protest plans by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to overhaul the judicial system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘fascistic individual’</h2>
<p>In his 1950 book <em>The Authoritarian Personality</em>, German sociologist Theodor Adorno argues there’s an inherent desire for dominance deep in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/nov/03/grand-hotel-abyss-frankfurt-school-adorno-benjamin-stuart-jeffries-review">human psyche</a>. Adorno was ahead of his time in exploring the psychology of the “potentially fascistic individual” lying dormant within us.</p>
<p>More than 70 years later, social scientists still haven’t explained the magnetism of the abyss — a term describing some people’s willingness to embrace reckless policies regardless of the explosive consequences for their societies. </p>
<p>To come to terms with this capacity for delusion, contemporary psychologists have returned to the idea that there are certain ways of thinking that create a warped world view. </p>
<p>Research into Machiavellianism, narcissism and psychopathy, the so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajpy.12198">Dark Triad</a> of anti-social personality traits, draws upon Adorno’s important insights. Social scientists are now identifying the link between a vindictive world view and political extremism, online abuse and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/opinion/democrats-republicans-education-racial-resentment.html">hate speech</a>. </p>
<h2>The masks of command</h2>
<p>Each authoritarian leader is different, bound only by their anti-liberalism, Dark Triad traits and their celebration as the ringleader of a populist circus. </p>
<p>In our recent book, <a href="https://ecwpress.com/products/has-populism-won"><em>Has Populism Won?</em></a>, we show how charismatic leaders encourage a form of totalitarianism in which blind allegiance creates a feeling of partisan belonging. To carry it off, leaders wear what we call “masks of command” to rally their followers. </p>
<p>In our assessment, leaders who spin webs of lies wear the mask of “conspirator-in-chief.” The conspirator uses favours, relationships and money to destabilize institutions and erode the norms that stand in the way of autocracy. </p>
<p>Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu relies upon the commander’s mask of “first citizen of the empire” when he argues that the solution to societal polarization is more personalized power. </p>
<p>The first citizen always desires fewer checks and balances. For example, Netanyahu wants to politicize judicial appointments and reduce the oversight of Israel’s Supreme Court. It’s all aimed at <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/20/what-are-israels-judicial-changes-causing-uproar">undermining the autonomy of judges</a> who have the responsibility to protect Israel’s constitution.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman holds up a sign depicting two men kissing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-Boris Johnson protester holds up a placard with artwork of him and Donald Trump in London in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Johnson and Trump frequently wore the aggressive mask of “national defender.” As false tribunes of the people, they <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/boris-johnson-donald-trump-immigration-plan-british-election-1472333">weaponized immigration</a> to their own advantage.</p>
<p>For Trump, America was beset by armies of refugees from Latin America. For Johnson, the U.K. needed to raise the drawbridge on migrants from eastern Europe. The zealot national defender always exaggerates external threats. </p>
<p>The “holy crusader” is even more ambitious because he believes he can change the entire international order to return his nation to greatness. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A balding man sit in a carved wooden chair." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting via videoconference outside Moscow on March 3, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>For example, Putin is a warmonger who uses imperialistic belligerence to disguise his nation’s decline. He aggressively sells the delusion of a Eurasian century. </p>
<p>Backed by China, he shadow-boxes with Russia’s old foe, western capitalism, to restore Moscow’s <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/world-putin-wants-fiona-hill-angela-stent">superpower status</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-imperial-mindset-dates-back-centuries-and-it-is-here-to-stay-95832">Russia's imperial mindset dates back centuries – and it is here to stay</a>
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<h2>The spectacle of authoritarianism</h2>
<p>These politicians play to jaded electorates and captive audiences who reward grandiosity and xenophobia because partisanship fills the void left by an absence of genuine national community. </p>
<p>These shamanistic masks have long been a mainstay of populists.</p>
<p>To many contemporary observers, the idea of an authoritarian personality <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2010.508901">is antiquated</a>. We disagree. What Adorno and his contemporaries did was ground-breaking. They clarified why some people prefer authoritarianism even when it runs counter <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/cutting-edge-leadership/201712/why-do-people-vote-against-their-best-interests">to their interests</a>. </p>
<p>So how to oppose extremism?</p>
<p>As political scientists, we believe democracy only works when it is safeguarded by a robust system of checks and balances, masses of engaged citizens and an independent judiciary. Every populist who promises to destroy the government to save it is lying for personal gain. It’s as simple as that. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rallying-cry-youth-must-stand-up-to-defend-democracy-81003">Rallying cry: Youth must stand up to defend democracy</a>
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<p>In his book <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780805089134/thespiritofdemocracy"><em>The Spirit of Democracy</em></a>, political scientist Larry Diamond of Stanford University argues that the fate of democracy depends on the passion of the people to defend it from its enemies. But today, the people’s passion is in the grips of hard-right populists.</p>
<p>Canada is still experiencing the shock waves of the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-police-convoy-inquiry-poec-documents-1.6684923">so-called freedom convoy</a>. </p>
<p>Yet we shouldn’t be complacent to the immediate reality that more radioactive fallout from American politics is heading our way. It demands an urgent response.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201544/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The newest class of right-wing populists aims to not only dismantle the guardrails of democracy, but also the most fundamental principles of the rule of law. We must prepare.Daniel Drache, Professor emeritus, Department of Politics, York University, CanadaMarc D. Froese, Professor of Political Science and Founding Director, International Studies Program, Burman UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1993692023-02-17T16:19:07Z2023-02-17T16:19:07ZPhilippines sides with US amid rising regional tensions between Beijing and Washington<p>The US-China rivalry in east Asia has taken an interesting turn after the recent visit of US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, to the Philippines. Austin’s trip ended in an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/us-seals-crucial-military-deal-with-the-philippines-close-to-china-flashpoints">expanded deal</a>, the enhanced defense cooperation agreement (EDCA). </p>
<p>This gives the US access to four additional military bases in a highly strategic region, a significant move for the Philippines, which – not so long ago – had signalled its intention to prioritise its friendship with China over the US.</p>
<p>Since Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos took office as president in June 2022, the US has revitalised its engagement with the Philippines. In July, Washington appointed career diplomat MaryKay Loss Carlson <a href="https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/837584/new-envoy-to-philippines-arriving-end-of-july-senior-us-diplomat/story/">as its ambassador</a>, filling a post that had been vacant since 2020. </p>
<p>Washington and Manila had enjoyed a strong relationship since the end of the second world war, characterised by a continual US military presence. This was crucial during the Vietnam war and afterwards enabled a significant and continuing US military presence in the region. </p>
<p>But the relationship soured after the election of Rodrigo Duterte as president in 2016, who <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-usa-idUSKCN12L0E4">made it clear</a> he wanted to prioritise a relationship with Beijing over Washington. </p>
<p>A low point was reached in 2020 when Duterte announced his decision to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-defence-idUSKBN2050E9">terminate the visiting forces agreement</a> controlling bilateral military arrangements including legal jurisdiction over US troops in Philippines and vice versa. The Philippines president subsequently <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/duterte-claims-that-covid-19-vaccines-saved-crucial-us-defense-pact/">reversed his decision in 2021</a>, admitting he had done so in return for access to COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic. </p>
<p>But Duterte’s antagonism towards the US and his growing closeness to Beijing had threatened to tilt the scale of geopolitics in the region at a time of mounting tensions across east Asia over Chinese expansion. </p>
<p>Meanwhile in the US, anger at Duterte’s shocking human rights abuses, including the extra-judicial killings of thousands during his “war in drugs” in 2016 and 2017 prompted the US Congress to debate a bill in September 2020 suspending <a href="https://globalnation.inquirer.net/191170/us-bill-halts-military-aid-to-ph-over-rights-issue">all security aid</a> to the Philippines.</p>
<p>Duterte, meanwhile, had been telling Beijing it was “time to say goodbye to Washington” and pursue closer relations with China. But this flirtation with China ultimately came to nothing. The South China dispute was left to rumble on in the background and Duterte did his best to ignore the issue.</p>
<h2>Reviving an old friendship</h2>
<p>During the 2022 presidential election campaign Marcos remained vague about the direction of his foreign policy. He hedged between his problematic family history with the US – which had <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1148755">played an important role</a> in ending his father’s dictatorship – and the ongoing <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53397673">South China Sea dispute</a> that has pitted Beijing against most of the rest of the region over China’s territorial claims.</p>
<p>But since assuming office, Marcos has been firm in keeping the alliance with the US strong, and America’s attitude towards the Philippines has thawed. For Washington’s part, the Philippines’ strategic importance to the US has only increased as China continues enact its claims to islands in the South China Sea with a growing military presence. </p>
<p>Washington is also disturbed by Beijing’s repeated statements about its desire to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59900139">“reunify” with Taiwan</a> and the increasingly authoritarian nature of its <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/05/29/863770112/4-takeaways-from-beijings-hong-kong-power-grab">administration of Hong Kong</a>.</p>
<p>Austin’s trip marks the third high-profile visit by a US official during the first year of the Marcos presidency. In November 2022, US vice president Kamala Harris visited Palawan, a strategically important archipelago abutting the South China Sea, meeting with coast guard officials there. </p>
<p>It was <a href="https://ph.usembassy.gov/vpharrisinph/">a historic visit of a high-ranking US official</a> to the home of the Philippine’s western command whose main area of responsibility is the West Philippine Sea, the sovereignty of which is hotly contested by China. Harris reaffirmed US support for the defence alliance and keeping the Indo-Pacific free and open. </p>
<p>US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-says-philippines-ties-extraordinary-us-committed-defence-pact-2022-08-06/">also visited the Philippines</a> in August 2022 at the same time as the former house speaker, Nancy Pelosi, made her controversial visit to Taiwan. Blinken reassured Marcos of Washington’s “iron-clad commitment” to the countries’ mutual defense treaty. Now Austin’s visit has gained the Philippines an expanded defence agreement and a potential US$100 million (£84 million) in military aid. </p>
<h2>Local and global politics collide</h2>
<p>The enhanced defense cooperation agreement was negotiated and signed in 2014 by the countries’ respective presidents at the time, Barack Obama and Benigno Aquino. The new detente between the Biden and Marcos administrations has returned the relationship between the two countries to a firmer footing and suggests that “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/10/06/1043329242/long-promised-and-often-delayed-the-pivot-to-asia-takes-shape-under-biden">America’s pivot to Asia</a>” has survived the pressures of the Trump administration’s isolationism, Duterte’s belligerence and China’s increasing assertiveness in the region.</p>
<p>The agreement over the additional bases under the EDCA was <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3175397/readout-of-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iiis-meeting-with-the-republic-o/">initially negotiated</a> in September 2022 by Austin and the newly appointed national defence senior undersecretary Jose Faustino at a meeting in Hawaii, so Beijing was well aware that the announcement was in the offing.</p>
<p>The maintenance of US influence in the east Asia region remains a plank of Washington’s security strategy, something it ensures by making nations like the Philippines chose sides periodically. <a href="https://sr.sgpp.ac.id/post/thailand-in-the-midst-of-a-us-china-rivalry">Thailand</a>, a staunch US ally during the Vietnam War which felt abandoned after the 1975 withdrawal, has been pulled in both directions too.</p>
<p>China <a href="http://ph.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgdt/202302/t20230202_11018831.htm">has criticised</a> the latest strengthening of the EDCA as an agreement that would “escalate regional tension and undermine regional peace and stability”.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Marcos – who said in January that the South China Sea issue was <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3207337/world-economic-forum-philippines-marcos-jnr-says-south-china-sea-keeps-him-night">“keeping him awake at night”</a> – is taking great pains to remain at least on terms with Beijing. Earlier this year, Marcos <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/Marcos-snags-22.8bn-in-investment-pledges-on-China-trip">secured US$22.8 billion in new investment deals</a> in January during a meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping in Beijing. </p>
<p>Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year ago, Washington has committed significant amounts of money and military support to Ukraine. But America’s greatest adversary still looms in the Indo-Pacific. And nations caught in between the two biggest global powers will continue to be bargaining chips for the two major powers while trying to get the best deal they can for themselves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199369/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos is playing a delicate game of great power relations between Beijing and Washington.Tom Smith, Principal Lecturer in International Relations & Academic Director of the Royal Air Force College Cranwell, University of PortsmouthAnn Bajo, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1991592023-02-06T13:27:42Z2023-02-06T13:27:42ZThe US and the Philippines’ military agreement sends a warning to China – 4 key things to know<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508124/original/file-20230203-12489-cr3hk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C85%2C5635%2C3134&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, center, arrives at a military camp in Quezon City, Philippines, on Feb. 2, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1246732852/photo/philippines-us-diplomacy-military.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=fMdOLLJVExKw7_VXp3HwJmvAFienaXiJ2ysoR2FkYQg=">Rolex Dela Pena/Pool/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United States and the Philippines <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3285566/philippines-us-announce-four-new-edca-sites/">announced on Feb. 2, 2023</a>, that the U.S. is expanding its military presence across more military bases in the Southeast Asian country, giving the U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/us-china-philippines.html">a potential advantage</a> in its efforts to thwart China’s possible efforts to take control of Taiwan. </p>
<p>The Philippines’ <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-philippines-has-stake-taiwan">most northern island</a> sits about 118 miles (190 kilometers) from Taiwan.</p>
<p>While Taiwan, an island off the coast of China, considers itself an independent country, China maintains that it is a breakaway province it wants to again control and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-politics-china-government-germany-88cd9b9fcead9d5dba0e8ea364f4dac6">has increased its threats</a> to move to overtake it in recent months.</p>
<p><a href="http://ma-allen.com/">We are</a> <a href="https://www.carlamm.com/">political science scholars</a> and <a href="https://www.m-flynn.com/">U.S. foreign policy</a> experts who recently published <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/beyond-the-wire-9780197633403?lang=en&cc=cl">a book about U.S. overseas military deployments</a>. Here is what this new agreement means for the U.S. foreign policy and rising military tensions in East and Southeast Asia.</p>
<h2>1. The agreement expands US influence</h2>
<p>The military agreement <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/01/united-states-military-base-philippines/">is an expansion of a 2014 deal called the</a> Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. </p>
<p>The new pact signed this week allows the U.S. to access four additional military bases in the Philippines and maintain equipment on those bases. In addition, the agreement calls for the U.S. to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/2/philippines-set-to-allow-wider-us-access-to-military-bases">spend US$82 million </a> on infrastructure investments at the five bases currently in use.</p>
<p>Now, the U.S. will have access to nine base sites in the Philippines, representing its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/world/asia/philippines-united-states-military-bases.html">most expansive military presence</a> in the country in 30 years.</p>
<p>The deal follows an October 2022 announcement that the U.S. was giving <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-grants-philippines-100-million-foreign-military-financing-2022-10-14/">$100 million</a> to the military in the Philippines. </p>
<p><iframe id="En2Kb" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/En2Kb/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>2. It sends a warning to China</h2>
<p>In recent years, China has increased its overseas military presence in the South China Sea and has begun expanding its military footprint in other regions, <a href="https://ecfr.eu/article/chinas-new-military-base-in-africa-what-it-means-for-europe-and-america/">including countries in Africa</a>, where it previously had none. China <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/16/china-military-bases-africa-navy-pla-geopolitics-strategy/">continues to seek new</a> foreign locations to host its own troops.</p>
<p>In 2022, for example, China signed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/20/the-deal-that-shocked-the-world-inside-the-china-solomons-security-pact">a new military deal</a> with the Solomon Islands, leading to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-solomon-islands-africa-guam-new-zealand-c7071aaac9c61b98b0783f663e9b921d">speculation</a> that it could eventually establish <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/14/solomon-islands-pm-rules-out-chinese-military-base-china-australia-security-partner-manasseh-sogavare">a permanent military</a> base there. </p>
<p>The U.S. also announced on Feb. 2, 2023, that it has <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-government-china-solomon-islands-e4b2c0587eaefad02d508143cfa4ae38">opened an embassy</a> in the Solomon Islands after not having one for 30 years. </p>
<p>While U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III <a href="https://twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1621022175619698697?s=20&t=1DNeZwlFx7LoMlMJsqpdpw">has said</a> that this new deal with the Philippines is necessary for training and integrating the U.S. and Philippine troops, it also increases the United States’ ability to respond to regional threats. </p>
<p>Having U.S. forces on the northern island of Luzon, in particular, would increase <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/philippines-grants-us-greater-access-bases-amid-china-concerns-2023-02-02/">the United States’ ability to deter</a> Chinese threats toward Taiwan. This expansion of military access also allows the U.S. to more easily and quickly respond to Chinese aggression in the <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10607">South China Sea</a> or the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/philippines-concerned-over-chinese-vessels-swarming-disputed-waters-defence-2022-12-14/">West Philippine Sea</a>.</p>
<p>China swiftly responded to the military agreement news. Mao Ning, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said on Feb. 2, 2023, that the move would “<a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/202302/t20230202_11018861.html">escalate tensions and endanger peace and stability in the region</a>.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508128/original/file-20230203-13466-ltl7gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two people hold up signs to their faces that say 'US troops out now' and 'Down with US imperialism.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508128/original/file-20230203-13466-ltl7gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508128/original/file-20230203-13466-ltl7gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508128/original/file-20230203-13466-ltl7gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508128/original/file-20230203-13466-ltl7gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508128/original/file-20230203-13466-ltl7gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508128/original/file-20230203-13466-ltl7gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508128/original/file-20230203-13466-ltl7gz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">While most Filipinos have expressed positive views of the U.S., some people in Manila protest the military announcement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1246734420/photo/us-defence-secretary-lloyd-austin-visits-philippines.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=A8XZTLkB-mbeJc-UfpXOXSm6oa_LQPdjRkuA86dJTxk=">Jes Aznar/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. US and Philippines have a long military history</h2>
<p>After the U.S. won the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/early-20th-century-us/spanish-american-war">Spanish-American War</a> in 1898, the Philippines became a U.S. colony until its independence in 1946. </p>
<p>The Philippines went on to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942211030885">host tens of thousands of U.S. troops</a> throughout the Cold War. However, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/05/02/protesters-in-philippines-seek-removal-of-us-bases/8d6787a3-d667-4e8c-85d8-76b555e6d988/">widespread public protests</a> over the U.S. presence led the Philippines <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/28/world/philippines-orders-us-to-leave-strategic-navy-base-at-subic-bay.html">to demand the U.S.</a> leave all its bases in 1992.</p>
<p>Despite this departure, the U.S. remained active in counterterrorism operations in the Philippines. In 1998, the <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-the-philippines/">two governments signed an agreement</a> that again permitted U.S. military personnel to be in the country. In 2014, the countries brokered <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-the-philippines/">another agreement</a> that gave U.S. forces access to five Philippine military bases. </p>
<p>The Philippines’ former President Rodrigo Duterte, who served from 2016 through 2022, <a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021/02/16/2078198/duterte-claims-us-turning-philippines-outpost">threatened to end</a> the military agreements between the U.S. and the Philippines <a href="https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ISEAS_Perspective_2020_42.pdf">multiple times</a>. The agreements endured through his six-year term. </p>
<p>The 2022 election of President <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-can-be-learned-ferdinand-marcos-jrs-first-weeks-office">Ferdinand Marcos Jr. </a>opened the possibility of further security cooperation between the U.S. and the Philippines, as the new president showed a willingness to rekindle a diplomatic relationship. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/852120/harris-tells-marcos-attacks-vs-ph-in-south-china-sea-will-invoke-us-mutual-defense-commitments/story/">Vice President Kamala Harris said in 2022</a> that an attack on the Philippines would compel the U.S. to defend the country. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/11/un-report-charts-human-rights-decline-in-the-philippines/">United Nations</a>, the U.S. and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2022/country-chapters/philippines">human rights advocacy</a> groups, meanwhile, have all recognized that there are <a href="https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/philippines/">serious, credible concerns</a> about how the Philippines’ government treats its own citizens.</p>
<p>The police have <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/11/22/how-many-people-have-been-killed-in-rodrigo-dutertes-war-on-drugs">killed thousands of civilians</a> during raids as part of the country’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/22/1008986915/international-court-is-asked-to-probe-anti-drug-war-in-the-philippines">war on drugs</a> over the past several years. The Philippines has also become an increasingly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/09/rodrigo-dutertes-war-press-freedom-maria-ressa-truth">dangerous place</a> to be a journalist and to express <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-manila-philippines-government-ferdinand-marcos-jr-human-rights-c7e0b6ac3ee29351eddb02d3ad56b193">independent political beliefs</a>. </p>
<p>While this may cause concern <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/asia-and-the-pacific/south-east-asia-and-the-pacific/philippines/report-philippines/">among human rights activists</a>, it is unlikely to influence the United States’ military decisions. </p>
<p>We have found <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022002716632300?journalCode=jcrb">in our research</a> that the U.S. tends to soften its concerns about human rights in deployment hosts when security issues become more prominent. </p>
<p>Austin announced the latest military deal from Quezon City, in the Philippines’ capital region, and noted on Feb. 2, 2023, that <a href="https://twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1621022384772759553?s=20&t=1DNeZwlFx7LoMlMJsqpdpw">the two countries</a> “shared values of freedom, democracy, and human dignity.”</p>
<h2>4. Public opinion will matter</h2>
<p>Given the complicated history of the U.S. and the Philippines, it is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000868">important to know what Filipinos think of the U.S. military’s</a> maintaining a formal presence there today. </p>
<p>We annually surveyed approximately 1,000 Filipinos from 2018 through 2020 about <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/beyond-the-wire-9780197633410?lang=en&cc=cl">how they view the United States’</a> and China’s influence in their country. </p>
<p><iframe id="Jqy1g" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Jqy1g/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Generally, solid majorities view U.S. influence as favorable, with some variation over the years we surveyed. Very few of our respondents had negative views. </p>
<p>We also asked them about China’s influence in their country. People’s responses to this question were far less positive. These responses also indicate views of China are becoming even less favorable over time. </p>
<p><iframe id="Mpxnv" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Mpxnv/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>U.S. and Chinese competition, meanwhile, for influence in the Pacific region is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/world/asia/indonesia-china-united-states.html?searchResultPosition=1">on the rise</a>. </p>
<p>In coming years, part of this competition will center on <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/beyond-the-wire-9780197633410?lang=en&cc=cl">gaining the support of host country populations</a> when the U.S. or China tries to set up a military base. How effective the U.S. and its military are in building goodwill will in large part influence the outcome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199159/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael A. Allen has previously received funding from the Minerva Research Initiative, the Department of Defense, and the Army Research Office. These organizations funded part of the work mentioned here. The views expressed here are the authors' only and do not represent the views of any outside funder.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carla Martinez Machain has previously received funding from the Minerva Research Initiative, the Department of Defense, and the Army Research Office. Part of the work mentioned in here was funded by these organizations. The views expressed here are the authors' only and do not represent the views of any outside funder. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael E. Flynn has previously received funding from the Minerva Research Initiative, the Department of Defense, and the Army Research Office. These organizations funded part of the work mentioned here. The views expressed here are the authors' only and do not represent the views of any outside funder.
</span></em></p>The agreement lets the US expand its access across military bases in the Philippines, unfolding a new chapter in the countries’ long military history.Michael A. Allen, Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityCarla Martinez Machain, Professor of Political Science, University at BuffaloMichael E. Flynn, Associate Professor of Political Science, Kansas State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1830462022-05-24T10:37:53Z2022-05-24T10:37:53ZPhilippines: the challenges ahead for the new president Marcos<p>The prospects for the Philippines under newly elected president <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-14/philippines-election-a-powerful-machine-brought-bongbong-marcos-to-victory">Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos</a> have as much to do with a murky past as they do with modern challenges. Electing the son of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/09/ferdinand-marcos-jr-triumph-philippines-presidential-election">a former dictator</a> may make no sense to many on the outside, or to the many liberals inside the country who are now doing some deep reflection. But further cold hard truths lie ahead for the Philippines. </p>
<p>The crimes of members of the Marcos clan’s own very recent past still haven’t been fully accounted for. Ferdinand Marcos Snr fled the country following years of a dictatorship that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/07/10bn-dollar-question-marcos-millions-nick-davies">plundered an estimated US$10 billion</a> (£8 billion) of public funds. </p>
<p>There is also a <a href="https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2022/3/17/Marcos-fake-news-on-unpaid-estate-taxes.html">question mark</a> over the Marcos family’s unsettled estate tax liabilities.
A <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/marcos-jr-camp-still-evades-issue-unpaid-estate-tax/">1997 decision</a> of the supreme court had ordered the Marcoses to pay 23 billion pesos (£350 million) in <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/bir-pcgg-confirm-ongoing-estate-tax-collection-vs-marcoses/">estate tax</a>. Asked about the issue in the run-up to the election, Marcos Jnr dismissed this issue as “fake news”. “Let’s leave it to the lawyers to discuss it.” </p>
<p>But this is only the latest unresolved case against the Marcos clan. The family matriarch Imelda, Marcos Jnr’s mother, still has more than <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in-depth/240949-status-updates-rulings-court-cases-vs-marcos-family/">a dozen cases</a> pending against her after being found guilty of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/imelda-marcos-convicted-graft-sentenced-prison-n934356">seven counts of graft in 2018</a>. But nobody should seriously hope that these will come to any resolution or that Imelda will be held accountable for <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna23555294">stealing obscene amounts</a> of the country’s wealth under her husband’s reign, something the family vehemently denies. </p>
<p>The shamelessness of the Marcos clan towards this reported plunder in a country that wrestles with crippling levels of poverty has been well covered recently in the media. Imelda was pictured at home with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/13/lost-picasso-spotted-in-imelda-marcos-home-after-son-bongbong-election-win">a Picasso on the wall</a>, despite it being one of many objects targeted for seizure by anti-corruption measures in 2014. An excellent investigative <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/philippines-election-marcos-fortune/">report by Reuters</a> published a week before the election laid bare the brazen way Marcos Jnr could prevent any further recoveries from the family.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-brutal-personal-costs-of-the-philippines-human-rights-abuses-100694">The brutal personal costs of the Philippines' human rights abuses</a>
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<p>The Philippines’ <a href="https://www.aseantoday.com/2017/02/philippine-judiciary-and-criminal-justice-system-under-pressure-an-inside-look/">bloated and archaic legal system</a> desperately needs reform, but no president is incentivised to do so when they can govern using it. Without true separation of the government from the judiciary, presidents – especially those with landslide victories – can rule and flout the rules. Under Marcos Jnr there is little to suggest any reform is incoming.</p>
<p>Sadly, the cronyism extends well beyond the justice system and into an economy in desperate need of revival following <a href="https://business.inquirer.net/297225/biggest-economic-decline-since-waning-years-of-marcos-regime-seen">crippling decline</a> under former president Rodrigo Duterte. The Philippines regularly ranks as one of the worst countries in the world for <a href="https://asianews.network/philippines-ranked-fourth-globally-in-crony-capitalism/">“crony capitalism”</a>, meaning it relies on a transactional relationship between government and powerful oligarchs who own and control much of the country’s economy. These are the same oligarchs that Duterte railed against and vowed to <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Crony-capital-How-Duterte-embraced-the-oligarchs">root out</a>. </p>
<h2>Economic issues</h2>
<p>Marcos Jnr also inherits a series of problems. For one thing, the nation’s economy relies too heavily on its army of overseas workers around the world sending back their remittances to support those at home. </p>
<p>In 2018, it was estimated that these remittances constituted 11% of the <a href="https://www.compareremit.com/money-transfer-guide/contribution-of-the-ofw-to-the-philippines-economy/#:%7E:text=OFWs%20are%20considered%20economic%20heroes%20of%20the%20country,the%20world%20that%20benefit%20the%20most%20from%20remittances.">country’s GDP</a>. Nurses, sailors, domestic workers and construction labourers, estimated to be around <a href="https://psa.gov.ph/content/total-number-ofws-estimated-22-million">2.2 million</a> worldwide, provide vital income to a nation falling behind others in the region. </p>
<p>Tourism has been massively hit as a result of the pandemic, and given the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2021/05/31/philippine-economy-is-a-mess-as-duterte-fiddles-on-covid-19/?sh=1d7d9bdcf96e">poor handling of COVID</a> by the outgoing Duterte administration, there is much to do to improve the state of domestic healthcare before international tourism can be rebuilt. </p>
<p>If that all wasn’t enough, the country still lacks critical infrastructure to be able to respond to the massive natural disasters that regularly besiege the country. Volcanic eruptions, super typhoons, landslides, earthquakes – all devastating in their own right – have all left behind a need for temporary housing, spiralling the country further into a <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/natural-disasters-threaten-philippine-growth/a-17219526">development trap</a> it cannot climb out of. </p>
<p>Some <a href="https://asianpoliticaldevelopment.wordpress.com/2018/03/28/are-natural-disasters-stopping-political-development-in-the-philippines/">research even suggests</a> that the corruption endemic in the politics of the Philippines is built on the country’s geographical challenges and mishandling of the response.</p>
<p>Perhaps most troubling is the prospect for a continuation of <a href="https://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/119202/duterte-admin-bred-culture-hate-violence">a culture of violence</a> normalised under Duterte. Marcos Jnr and his vice president – Duterte’s daughter Sara – are set to continue, if not build upon, the security state that enables attacks on <a href="https://www.onenews.ph/articles/philippines-still-among-deadliest-countries-for-journalists">journalists</a> and leaves extrajudicial <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/philippines">killings</a> uninvestigated.</p>
<p>Unabashed <a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/11/02/1865212/duterte-admits-militarization-government">militarisation</a> under Duterte is seemingly Marcos Jnr and Sara Duterte’s principal policy issue. They plan to make <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/sara-duterte-wants-mandatory-military-service-adult-filipinos/">military service mandatory</a> for all adults and make the Reserve Officers’ Training Corps mandatory in college programmes, for which they face opposition from student <a href="https://mb.com.ph/2022/01/23/sara-dutertes-mandatory-military-service-proposal-unnecessary-students-group/">groups</a>.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/communists-congress-03302022130916.html">communist</a> and <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3176373/what-challenges-will-next-philippine-leader-face-militant-hotbed">Islamist</a> insurgencies continue to threaten the country, further militarisation, building on Duterte’s war on drugs and use of the military in various <a href="https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1815070/manila/local-news/special-report-a-lsquomilitarizedrsquo-government">arms of government</a>, is risky. </p>
<p>These long-running insurgencies stem from deep social and political grievances – many legitimate – with the state. And increased violence at the hands of an expanded military is unlikely to deal with the root causes of the conflict. Duterte’s military demolished the city of Marawi in 2017 when it was drawn into a siege by local clans claiming to be <a href="https://www.bloomsburycollections.com/book/exporting-global-jihad-critical-perspectives-from-asia-and-north-america/mujahideen-in-marawi">Islamic State affiliates</a>, and have not bothered to rebuild it – leaving thousands <a href="https://opinion.inquirer.net/152736/rebuilding-marawi">displaced and resentful</a>. </p>
<p>Marcos Jnr has much to reform and rebuild. The electorate will support him for six to 12 months as they do all their new leaders. Capitalising on this wave of support with bold new measures to rebuild sorely needed robust infrastructure and trust in institutions will be needed for the next Marcos to take the throne in another 35 years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183046/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Newly elected Philippines president Bongbong Marcos faces huge challenges, and a backdrop of his father’s dictatorship.Tom Smith, Principal Lecturer in International Relations & Academic Director of the Royal Air Force College Cranwell, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825032022-05-11T17:42:13Z2022-05-11T17:42:13ZA member of the Marcos family is returning to power – here’s what it means for democracy in the Philippines<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462327/original/file-20220510-18-1j774w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C341%2C5982%2C3646&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Politics is the Marcos family business.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ferdinand-bongbong-marcos-jr-and-his-family-take-part-in-news-photo/1395951494?adppopup=true">Ezra Acayan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some 36 years after the <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/iq/people-power-philippines-world-bright-spot-1986/">People Power Revolution</a> restored democracy to the Philippines, a member of perhaps the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/11/08/why-late-philippine-dictator-was-no-hero#">most brutal</a> <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-61212659">and corrupt</a> political dynasties in the nation’s memory is set to return to the Philippine presidency. </p>
<p>Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/10/philippines-presidential-election-result-ferdinand-bongbong-marcos/">has won the presidential election</a>, according to preliminary results. It will return him to the Malacañang Palace where he lived as a child and from which his <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1986/02/26/world/marcos-flees-and-is-taken-to-guam-us-recognizes-aquino-as-president.html">parents fled in 1986</a>. His running mate, Sara Duterte, the daughter of current President Rodrigo Duterte, is also <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Philippine-elections/Philippine-presidential-election-How-the-night-unfolded">set to win the vice presidency</a> by a landslide.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Ferdinand Marcos, dressed in white traditional Philippine shirt, raises his hand and speaks into a microphone to supporters; beside him in a green jumpsuit is his son, Bongbong." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462323/original/file-20220510-26-r56oh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462323/original/file-20220510-26-r56oh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462323/original/file-20220510-26-r56oh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462323/original/file-20220510-26-r56oh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462323/original/file-20220510-26-r56oh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462323/original/file-20220510-26-r56oh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462323/original/file-20220510-26-r56oh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Like father, like son?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/philippine-president-ferdinand-marcos-waves-goodbye-to-news-photo/1337631331?adppopup=true">Alex Bowie/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Both candidates hail from political dynasties with long histories of abuses of power. The human rights offenses of the first Marcos regime, from 1965 to 1986, are well documented, involving an estimated <a href="https://www.manilatimes.net/2016/04/12/featured-columns/columnists/3257-fact-checking-the-marcos-killings-1975-1985/255735">3,257 deaths</a> and <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/04/five-things-to-know-about-martial-law-in-the-philippines/">over 50,000 victims who were tortured and detained</a> during the martial law period alone. Also well documented is the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/07/10bn-dollar-question-marcos-millions-nick-davies">estimated US$10 billion Marcos plundered</a>. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the outgoing Duterte administration is notorious for its <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-brutal-personal-costs-of-the-philippines-human-rights-abuses-100694">so-called “war on drugs</a>,” during which his infamous death squads killed more than <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-duterte-says-will-never-apologise-drug-war-deaths-2022-01-04/">6,200 as of 2022</a>.</p>
<p>The election has been mired in <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/02/1090474739/philippines-presidential-election-resurfaces-old-scandal">tax scandals</a>, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/25/philippines-election-corruption-bongbong-marcos/">bureaucratic corruption</a> and <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Philippine-elections/Philippine-activists-warn-of-voting-anomalies-ahead-of-election">voter suppression</a>.</p>
<p>But despite these scandals both past and present, dynastic families remain in full force in the Southeast Asian archipelago. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/cf/ase/faculty_display.cfm?person_id=1091464">scholar of Philippine history</a>, I know this “rule by dynasty” dates from the days of American colonial rule. But it has been enhanced by a more modern curse: media manipulation and disinformation.</p>
<h2>The political economy of dynasties</h2>
<p>The tenacity of political dynasties of all political orientations to outlast the Philippines’ halted revolutions – both <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/magazine-35526200">in 1986</a> and a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/02/05/world/people-power-ii-doesn-t-give-filipinos-the-same-glow.html">later uprising in 2001</a> – shows that popular mobilization did not lead to a more democratic government.</p>
<p>The late <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/15/world/asia/benedict-anderson-scholar-who-saw-nations-as-imagined-dies-at-79.html">political scientist Benedict Anderson</a> famously called the Philippines a “<a href="https://newleftreview.org/issues/i169/articles/benedict-anderson-cacique-democracy-and-the-philippines-origins-and-dreams">cacique democracy</a>” – a fusion of popular electoral power and feudal, dynastic rule.</p>
<p>While landowning elites existed during the 19th century, this “cacique democracy” – cacique referring to local political bosses in Latin American countries – developed during the American colonial rule of the Philippines <a href="https://www.asianstudies.org/publications/eaa/archives/the-philippines-an-overview-of-the-colonial-era/">between 1898 and 1942</a>. The aim was to cultivate an Indigenous leadership that could collaborate with American colonial rule.</p>
<p>To establish loyal allies among the local population,<a href="https://newleftreview.org/issues/i169/articles/benedict-anderson-cacique-democracy-and-the-philippines-origins-and-dreams"> the U.S. expropriated 400,000 acres</a> owned by the Catholic Church between 1898 and 1941 and auctioned it to landowners and economic elites. These same leaders, bolstered by their consolidated agricultural economic base, formed a new political class in Manila, as they participated in the new legislature of the colony.</p>
<p>With their wealth and political influence strengthened under American occupation, these ruling families held disproportionate sway over the development of the fledgling nation <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/philippine-independence-declared">following independence in 1946</a>.</p>
<p>These “caciques,” or native feudal lords, went on to become the ruling class of today. The Marcos family is descended from regional landowners in Ilocos Norte, in the north of Luzon, the Philippines’ most populous island. But unlike his forebears, Ferdinand Marcos Sr. rose from regional leader to national prominence, first as the president of the Philippine Senate in 1959, then as national president in 1965. Through his own charisma – and the popularity of his wife, Imelda Romualdez Marcos – the family consolidated their political base.</p>
<p>At the opposite end of the political spectrum <a href="https://www.ranker.com/list/members-of-the-aquino-family/reference">are the Aquino family</a>, hailing from a clan of elite landowners in Central Luzon, whose patriarch was one of the original members of the republican government formed after the 1896 Philippine Revolution. Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr., a senator and outspoken Marcos critic, was <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/iq/143594-look-back-ninoy-aquino-assassination/">assassinated in 1983</a>. His wife, Corazon Aquino, was elected on the back of the mass fervor of the 1986 Revolution, and later their son reached the presidency.</p>
<p>Dynasties have long dominated Philippines politics. But the fact that the Marcos name not only survived the overthrow of its patriarch but managed to become rehabilitated in the following decades hints at the tenacity of dynastic politics in the Philippines.</p>
<h2>Media and disinformation</h2>
<p>Despotic power cannot be shored up by birthright claims alone. So it is no coincidence that the return of the Marcos family has coincided with large-scale attacks against journalism, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2018/01/17/578610243/a-fraught-time-for-press-freedom-in-the-philippines">waged by the national executive and its allies</a>.</p>
<p>In 2022, the Philippines was <a href="https://rsf.org/en/index">ranked by Reporters Without Borders</a> 147th out of 180 countries for press freedom. This is a stark contrast to the period before the election of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. in 1965, when <a href="https://cpj.org/reports/2005/08/neumann-sidebar/">the country’s press was considered the most free in Asia</a>.</p>
<p>During the six years of Duterte’s rule since 2016, the president developed a reputation as someone who used social media disinformation – especially via Facebook – to cultivate support for his brutal “war on drugs.” At the same time he frequently attacked the work of journalists and critics of his regime.</p>
<p>Duterte made a deliberate attempt to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/09/rodrigo-dutertes-war-press-freedom-maria-ressa-truth">undermine the free press</a>. In December 2020, after months of systematic targeting by President Duterte, the Philippine Congress <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/10/world/asia/philippines-congress-media-duterte-abs-cbn.html">voted to shut down ABS-CBN</a> – the country’s largest broadcasting network. </p>
<p>The Philippines remains one of the most dangerous places for reporters. As recently as December 2021, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/12/10/killing-journalist-criminal-libel-philippines">journalist Jesus Malabanan was shot by gunmen in his own home</a>. Malabanan, a well-respected reporter who worked on Reuters’ coverage of the Philippine drug war, was the 22nd journalist murdered during the Duterte regime.</p>
<p>The weakening and intimidation of independent journalism and media paved the way for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/business/philippines-election-disinformation.html">disinformation to flourish</a>. </p>
<p>Bongbong Marcos’ presidential run has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/business/philippines-election-disinformation.html">widely criticized for media manipulation</a>. And disinformation has been central to the shift in public opinion toward the family.</p>
<p>In 2019, Rappler, the independent news website founded by Nobel Peace Prize recipient Maria Ressa, ran <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/investigative/245290-marcos-networked-propaganda-social-media/">a three-part investigation</a> that revealed the extent to which Marcos deployed digital propaganda to propel himself into public favor through the use of disinformation spread on other social media platforms, and through various fan pages and other viral content. The first Marcos regime was recast in misleading propaganda that portrayed the era <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/investigative/245540-networked-propaganda-false-narratives-from-the-marcos-arsenal/">as a time of progress</a> while denying its human rights abuses.</p>
<p>And in 2020, <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/bongbong-marcos-cambridge-analytica-rebrand-family-image/">Cambridge Analytica whistleblower Barbara Kaiser alleged that Marcos had reached out to the firm</a> – known for its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/us/politics/cambridge-analytica-scandal-fallout.html">harvesting of Facebook users’ data</a> for political campaigns – in an effort to further bolster his family’s image. The Marcos campaign denies this connection.</p>
<h2>Never again?</h2>
<p>The election of Bongbong Marcos comes close to 50 years after his father declared martial law, on Sept. 23, 1972.</p>
<p>That original Marcos era – with its extrajudicial killings and rampant corruption – has been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-05/bongbong-marcos-philippines-election-social-media/101035620">subjected to revisionism</a>, with many Filipinos looking back at the Marcos years as a time of stability and growth while ignoring the abuses. The $10 billion plundered by the Marcoses – which once dominated headlines – gets talked about less. Imelda Marcos, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/06/opinions/philippines-election-marcos-bongbong-imelda-andelman/index.html">herself a notorious kleptocrat</a>, has been transformed into an object of fascination.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Protesters gather holding signs saying 'Never Again to Martial Law.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462320/original/file-20220510-14-3sexqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462320/original/file-20220510-14-3sexqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462320/original/file-20220510-14-3sexqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462320/original/file-20220510-14-3sexqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462320/original/file-20220510-14-3sexqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462320/original/file-20220510-14-3sexqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462320/original/file-20220510-14-3sexqi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anti-Marcos and -Duterte protesters hold a vigil in Manila, Philippines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/anti-marcos-and-duterte-protesters-hold-a-vigil-in-liwasan-news-photo/1396462191?adppopup=true">Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile the voices of survivors of the martial law era and the activists who oppose authoritarian rule have grown less effective in the face of President Duterte’s popularity. Their message of “never again” failed to disrupt the Marcos family return to power. </p>
<p>In 2018, on the 35th anniversary of the assassination of Ninoy Aquino, Imee Marcos – Bongbong’s sister – stated that “the millennials have moved on [from Ferdinand Marcos’ history], and I think people at my age should move on as well.” </p>
<p>The electoral victory of her brother seems to have have proved Imee Marcos correct.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182503/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian De Leon receives funding from the Fulbright Commission and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Bongbong Marcos is the projected winner of the Philippines election. That the son of a brutal dictator has won shows how wedded the country is to dynastic politics – and image manipulation.Adrian De Leon, Assistant Professor of American Studies and Ethnicity, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1737232021-12-19T11:14:32Z2021-12-19T11:14:32ZHow the Philippines’ President Dutuerte weaponized a Filipino custom during COVID-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437601/original/file-20211214-16318-yl7jz8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3854%2C2579&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Senator Bong Go shout slogans outside the Commission on Elections in Manila, Philippines, on Nov. 15, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Aaron Favila)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Bayanihan</em>, <a href="https://themixedculture.com/2013/09/25/filipinos-bayanihan/">the Indigenous Filipino custom of group work</a>, has been weaponized by President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines to advance his own power. </p>
<p>Historically, <em>bayanihan</em> refers to the <a href="https://medium.com/mind-cafe/how-the-filipino-house-moving-tradition-fosters-happiness-in-togetherness-631fa67d9867">Filipino tradition of a community coming together</a> to help families physically lift their wooden houses from one location to another. Now the term refers more to volunteering. </p>
<p>But amid a global pandemic, when gathering is the main source of infection, historian Greg Bankoff argues that <em>bayanihan</em> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/phs.2020.0029">no longer works to help Filipinos overcome challenges</a>. Instead, the traditional practices of <em>bayanihan</em> put people at risk of infection. So it was surprising when Duterte announced <a href="https://polisci.upd.edu.ph/resources/bayanihan-primer/">the <em>Bayanihan</em> to Heal as One Act</a>, a legislation granting him additional authority to combat COVID-19 in the Philippines. </p>
<p>The Act grants Duterte rare and special powers to combat COVID-19 such as the ability to intervene in the daily functions of civil society, interfere in the operations of private businesses and even take over companies that refuse to comply with his orders. </p>
<p>Given how much more power this act grants him, many are concerned that this is just a move to <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/the-philippines-pandemic-response-a-tragedy-of-errors/">“weaponize” the virus to impose his own authoritarian visions</a>.</p>
<h2>Retraumatizing communities</h2>
<p>Over the past six months, a team of researchers from York University, University of the Philippines and the University of Nottingham have been studying the impact of COVID-19 in urban poor communities in Manila. </p>
<p>During our interviews, local leaders shared that Duterte’s militarized response to COVID-19 was re-traumatizing because the tactics were very similar to his “<a href="https://journal.aihii.or.id/index.php/ijir/article/view/146/63">war on drugs</a>” which used sensationalist rhetoric to portray drug users as a threat to state and society.</p>
<p>Duterte focused on a narrative <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/the-philippines-pandemic-response-a-tragedy-of-errors/">that blamed <em>pasaways</em></a>, or “undisciplined” citizens — those who violated the lockdown were criminalized and shamed. For example in Cebu City, cops were instructed in June 2020 to <a href="https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1107327">immediately arrest lockdown violators without warning</a>. </p>
<p>The danger of this type of unrestrained law enforcement is clear in the case of three LGBTQI+ people in Pandacaqui who were <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/08/philippines-uses-humiliation-covid-curfew-punishment">detained by a village official for violating curfew</a> and accused of looking for illicit sex. As punishment, the village official publicly humiliated them by ordering them to <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/257292-barangay-captain-lgbtq-quarantine-violators-lewd-acts-punishment">kiss, dance and do push-ups on Facebook live</a>.</p>
<p>Duterte’s COVID-19 response was articulated as a “war” where the enemy was the <em>pasaway</em>. This narrative has been labelled the “<em>pasaway</em> myth” because the urban poor have largely restricted their mobility during one of the <a href="https://time.com/5945616/covid-philippines-pandemic-lockdown/">longest and strictest lockdowns in the world</a>. </p>
<p>The country’s COVID-19 restrictions, and Duterte’s warning in a televised address that quarantine violators should be <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/16/duterte-philippines-coronavirus-response-shoot-them-dead/">shot dead by police</a>, are compelling reasons to follow the rules. However, the militarized response and brutal rhetoric have left deep scars in urban poor communities. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A worker wearing protective gear walks ahead of a truck that reads 'caution'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437603/original/file-20211214-27-16hhvml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437603/original/file-20211214-27-16hhvml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437603/original/file-20211214-27-16hhvml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437603/original/file-20211214-27-16hhvml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437603/original/file-20211214-27-16hhvml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437603/original/file-20211214-27-16hhvml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437603/original/file-20211214-27-16hhvml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A worker wearing protective gear prepares to collect garbage at the Bagong Sibol Quarantine Facility in Marikina city, Philippines in November 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Aaron Favila)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Under the banner of what Bankoff calls “state-sponsored <em>bayanihan</em>,” Duerte’s actions have drastically changed the meaning of the word. The original essence that used to mean so much to local communities is gone, and has been hijacked to meet political ends. </p>
<p>The militarization of the government’s COVID-19 response has incentivized citizens to take actions that oppose the <em>bayanihan</em> spirit. Instead of coming together to help one another, neighbours are encouraged to report each other to stop the <em>pasaways</em> from spreading the virus. Naming the Act the <em>Bayanihan</em> to Heal as One, is a mockery of the term and what it represents. </p>
<h2>COVID-19 impacts in Manila</h2>
<p>Based on our research, we’ve discovered that instead of rogue political acts from the government, community members want livelihoods, food security and better health care. </p>
<p>Many urban poor communities have a high percentage of informal workers that rely on daily wages. In our interview with Manila’s mayor, Francisco Moreno Domagoso (Isko Moreno), he shared that transport workers, such as jeepney and pedicab drivers, were the ones most heavily impacted by the lockdown. </p>
<p>Despite local efforts to combat the harsh state response — such as the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/philippines-pantries-covid-pandemic/2021/04/21/30ad8a5c-a1ac-11eb-b314-2e993bd83e31_story.html">community pantry movement</a>, that saw small, ad hoc food banks spring up in communities across the Philippines — locals are aware that such gestures, <a href="https://www.borgenmagazine.com/bayanihan-community-pantries-in-the-philippines/">which rely on the kindness of strangers, are temporary</a>. In general, such trends are unsustainable. </p>
<p>Food security was a key concern — most households had limited savings and quickly ran out. But to be eligible to receive government relief packs, residents had to be part of an official government list. Our interviewees noted that anyone who was not “friendly” with <em>barangay</em> (village) captains ran the risk of exclusion from the lists. </p>
<p>An interviewee from the office of Vice-President Leni Robredo, who was involved in the distribution of relief packs, also told us that their mission was denied access to areas that were not politically aligned with Robredo. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person walks up and down rows of people selling food as they wait in line for vaccines." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437604/original/file-20211214-23-ep006y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437604/original/file-20211214-23-ep006y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437604/original/file-20211214-23-ep006y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437604/original/file-20211214-23-ep006y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437604/original/file-20211214-23-ep006y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437604/original/file-20211214-23-ep006y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437604/original/file-20211214-23-ep006y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vendors sell food and water to waiting residents at a vaccination center in Quezon city, Philippines in September 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Aaron Favila)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We were told that the pandemic meant that access to routine healthcare was curtailed: frequently, routine health checks were cancelled and local health clinics were shut. Maternal care was limited as hospital and community midwives were redeployed to the COVID-19 effort. </p>
<p>Many urban poor found it hard to attend checkups because they were reliant on public transport that was no longer running. In some cases, a lack of timely medical care led to miscarriage and death. Routine vaccinations for children were cancelled and generally people feared going to hospital. </p>
<p>Ultimately, our research tells us that communities need jobs, food and health care, not political acts that hijack the spirit of <em>bayanihan</em> or false narratives of <em>pasaway</em>.</p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/defence-security-foresight-group/about/thematic-team-asia-pacific">Asia Pacific Team from the Defence and Security Foresight Group (DSFG)</a> supported during the development of this piece.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173723/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yvonne Su receives funding from ESRC Impact Acceleration Account Grant and SSHRC.</span></em></p>Research suggests that communities need jobs, food and health care, not political acts that hijack the spirit of bayanihan.Yvonne Su, Assistant Professor in the Department of Equity Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1699732021-10-14T15:12:15Z2021-10-14T15:12:15ZPhilippines: ‘Bongbong’ Marcos, son of reviled dictator Ferdinand, runs in what could be a race of two dynasties in 2022 election<p>There are still more than six months to go before the next Philippines election in May 2022, but the horse-trading and behind-the-scenes machinations are <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/09/asia/philippines-election-president-duterte-marcos-dst-intl-hnk/index.html">hotting up</a>. Incumbent president, the right-wing strongman Rodrigo Duterte, is banned by the constitution from standing for the presidency again next year – he did consider the vice-presidency before announcing his retirement from politics on October 2 – but the list of nine official candidates includes some interesting personalities, not least the retired boxing superstar <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/19/boxing-legend-manny-pacquiao-to-run-for-president-of-philippines">Manny Pacquiao</a>. </p>
<p>But it’s the candidacy of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr – son of Ferdinand Marcos Snr – that has attracted the most recent attention. The simple fact of his candidacy being taken seriously, despite the memory of his late father, is an indication of how far the country has come since the reviled dictator was ousted in a popular revolution in 1986 and fled to the US allegedly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/07/10bn-dollar-question-marcos-millions-nick-davies">carrying billions of dollars from the national treasury</a>.</p>
<p>Bongbong is <a href="http://legacy.senate.gov.ph/senators/sen_bio/bmarcos_bio41315.asp">no stranger to politics</a>, having been appointed as vice-governor of the northern province of Ilcos Norte in 1980, aged 23, during the later and most troubling period of his father’s rule. After Marcos Snr died in exile in 1989, the sitting president, Corazon Aquino, allowed the other members of his family to return to the Philippines, <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/iq/timeline-marcos-political-comeback">with Imelda Marcos facing more than 60 criminal and civil charges</a>, including corruption and tax evasion. Despite this shadow having over the family, by 1992 Bongbong was elected as a representative for Ilcos Norte and served as governor from 1998. In 2010, he was elected senator for the Nacionalista Party. </p>
<p>In 2016 he attempted to become vice president, losing to the incumbent, Leni Robredo, by just 0.64% of the votes cast, a result he <a href="https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2021/7/2/Robredo-Marcos-Vice-President-poll-protest-bitter-pill-defeat.html">bitterly contested</a>. Now, after five years of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpJMKEFDt7c">cosying up to Duterte</a>, he is attempting to succeed in the race for the top job.</p>
<h2>Sins of the father</h2>
<p>For a generation of Filipinos, the memories of martial law, declared by Ferdinand Snr in 1972, are still raw. This moment ushered in an era of repression which eventually led to his ousting. But this instinctively visceral reaction to the Marcos name is <a href="https://globalnation.inquirer.net/49932/to-young-filipinos-who-never-knew-martial-law-and-dictatorship">not shared by many younger Filipinos</a>. This is an important factor to weigh up when thinking about the 2022 election – in a country with a <a href="https://knoema.com/atlas/Philippines/topics/Demographics/Age/Population-aged-15-24-years">median age of under 26</a>, those bad memories may not count for a great deal at the polling booths.</p>
<p>This is not to say that living victims of Ferdinand Snr’s reign of torture will not be heard – at least one survivor has <a href="https://www.straight.com/news/filipino-canadian-torture-survivor-outraged-with-presidential-bid-by-scion-of-ex-philippine?fbclid=IwAR3cUDHtBju2vnz6AF9DTHDuHXXKdvOvUx6lntPwZjF3ucNGWKPTLueAStU">spoken out</a> about his treatment at the hands of the military in 1982. Ultimately, he is unlikely to completely escape his father’s long shadow – and the signs are that he will <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/son-of-the-philippine-dictator-marcos-announces-presidential-campaign/">embrace the family brand</a>. This is sure to stoke <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ferdinand-marcos-philippines-manila-election-2020-rodrigo-duterte-748daff9c565f1ee84234e682b36bf1b">protests</a> even further as electioneering ramps up.</p>
<p>If he does play to the electorate’s desire for a strong leader, Bongbong will hardly be reinventing the political wheel in the Philippines. Duterte himself was carrying an awful lot of murky baggage when he leapt from mayor of Davao City in the deep south to win the presidency six years ago. This was a candidate that both <a href="https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/434243/davao-death-squad-strikes-again">Amnesty International</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2009/04/06/you-can-die-any-time/death-squad-killings-mindanao">Human Rights Watch</a> documented as having run death squads. </p>
<p>The UN general assembly <a href="https://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/11session/A.HRC.11.2.Add.8.pdf">had discussed</a> Duterte’s Davao Death Squads (known now as the DDS) as far back as 2009, yet none of this prevented him attracting 39% of the vote in 2016 – to ensure him the presidency. In fact, this notoriety was part of the image he built to win power.</p>
<p>Duterte’s victory offers something of a template for Bongbong in other ways too. Duterte successfully <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-12-07/how-rodrigo-duterte-turned-facebook-into-a-weapon-with-a-little-help-from-facebook">weaponised Facebook</a> and the role social media is already playing in retelling the <a href="https://www.rappler.com/voices/thought-leaders/analysis-consequences-distorting-marcos-legacy-youtube?fbclid=IwAR2yS1QczJiepNjtphKDkH_sMEC8HMEzaDKpJxSJqQNxp1ksuQbpaGkTbYo">Marcos dictatorship on YouTube</a> for a new generation is already coming into question.</p>
<h2>Placeholders and stalking horses</h2>
<p>It’s early days yet to accurately assess his chance of victory – the roster of candidates still feels far from final more than six months out from the election. Many suspect Duterte’s daughter Sara could enter the race late as a replacement for a <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/waiting-sara-duterte-lakas-cmd-fields-placeholder-for-president-2022?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3_Knbeh6GJXCVQhdKUJ2T5Q3Pb8VhhSijeV8qjC6KPRe_eg9BWK2sEBH0#Echobox=1633951821">Anna Capela Velasco</a>, who many believe has been nominated as a placeholder for the 43-year-old current mayor of Davao. Things will become clearer by November 15, which is the deadline for <a href="https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1499602/will-sara-duterte-be-a-substitute-candidate-everything-is-possible-says-bato">substitute candidates</a>. </p>
<p>Another candidate, <a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021/10/08/2132732/bato-dela-rosa-former-drug-war-chief-implementer-admins-presidential-bet">Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa</a>, has also been identified as a possible placeholder for Sara. Dela Rosa <a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021/10/08/2132732/bato-dela-rosa-former-drug-war-chief-implementer-admins-presidential-bet">was promoted by Duterte</a> from his post as a provincial police chief in Davao to the national police chief and his point man on the drug war. He was nominated <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/bato-dela-rosa-presidency-coc-filing-two-hours-before-deadline">two hours before the October 8 deadline</a> – and his own surprise at being put forward is an indication of the level of game playing going on before the campaign proper has even got underway.</p>
<h2>A Duterte-Marcos alliance</h2>
<p>There has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/05/son-of-ex-dictator-ferdinand-marcos-to-run-for-philippines-president">much discussion</a> of a Duterte-Marcos, or Marcos-Duterte alliance. Duterte authorised a hero’s burial for the former dictator’s remains and the families have a <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/bongbong-marcos-will-continue-drug-war-shield-from-international-criminal-court">long political relationship</a>, going back to the 1960s.</p>
<p>Bongbong has already indicated that Duterte’s drug war – which has resulted in the deaths of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/16/world/asia/philippines-duterte-icc-hague.html">at least 8,000</a> people since 2016 – <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/bongbong-marcos-will-continue-drug-war-shield-from-international-criminal-court">would continue</a> on his watch and he said he would shield any suspects from the International Criminal Court investigation into crimes against humanity committed by the Duterte regime which was <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/78354/icc-investigation-of-philippines-president-duterte-sends-important-signals/">formally authorised in September</a>.</p>
<p>In essence, Bongbong is so far openly positioning himself as a continuity candidate, adopting the same policies and methods as Duterte and owning the Marcos family name. So at least in this regard, voters will know plenty about who they intend to vote for – or against.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 2022 Philippines presidential election could be a battle between, or an alliance of, two controversial political dynasties.Tom Smith, Principal Lecturer in International Relations & Academic Director of the Royal Air Force College Cranwell, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1695352021-10-14T00:04:24Z2021-10-14T00:04:24ZThe Philippines is set for a fiery election, even without any Dutertes (at least for now)<p>After five years under Rodrigo Duterte’s brutal rule, Filipinos will soon go to the polls to choose a new leader – and potentially a new direction for the country. </p>
<p>We now have a better idea who this new leader might be following last week’s filing deadline for candidates for the May election. </p>
<p>And as the candidates begin to jockey for position, it’s becoming clear there is no anointed successor to Duterte who might be able to carry on the legacies of “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568484921000538">Dutertismo</a>” – how his brand of populist politics has become known. </p>
<p>Rather, the 2022 election is shaping up to be another race for a minority government. Both the ruling party coalition and the opposition coalition have failed to pick consensus candidates and assemble unified campaigns. </p>
<p>The winning margin is likely to be small, and voters may see the worst of the country’s electoral politics, from the traditional use of “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/25798431">guns, goons and gold</a>” (violent intimidation and vote-buying) to the new means of weaponising social media.</p>
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<h2>No Dutertes running (as of now)</h2>
<p>The list of presidential candidates contains some familiar names, such as Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and boxing-champion-turned-senator, Manny Pacquiao.</p>
<p>But one name is conspicuously absent: Duterte. Rodrigo Duterte recently announced <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-02/philippines-president-duterte-retires/100510148">he was resigning from politics</a>, but many Filipinos were doubtful he would actually leave. There was much speculation he might run as vice president alongside his daughter, Sara Duterte, the mayor of Davao City.</p>
<p>However, the much-anticipated Duterte-Duterte ticket did not materialise. After his public approval <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/duterte-governments-approval-slides-philippines-election-season-starts-2021-10-05/">ratings</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/satisfaction-with-philippines-duterte-fell-21-pct-nov-june-despite-strong-2021-09-24/">declined</a> in recent months, Duterte decided not to run for the vice presidency. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-filipino-artists-are-responding-to-president-duterte-and-the-war-on-drugs-84510">How Filipino artists are responding to President Duterte and the 'War on Drugs'</a>
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<p>This potential move would have been divisive, as he would have had to circumvent the <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/philippine-constitution-provision-president-running-vice-president">constitutional ban</a> on presidents running for re-election after a single term. He may have abandoned the idea because of fear of a public backlash – a June survey showed <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/most-filipinos-think-duterte-vice-presidential-bid-violates-constitution-sws-survey-june-2021">most Filipinos considered a VP run to be unconstitutional</a>. </p>
<p>The president’s daughter, meanwhile, had been topping the polls of potential presidential candidates for months, but she also announced she would not run. </p>
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<p>Sara Duterte has an ongoing rivalry with leaders of her father’s imploding party, PDP-Laban, and she has repeatedly refused to be dragged into the messy work of salvaging its future. Instead, she says she will run for reelection as mayor.</p>
<p>The rumour mill about a potential father-daughter campaign (or a run by either Duterte on different tickets) will likely continue until mid-November, the deadline for substitution candidates to file.</p>
<p>After all, Duterte has pulled this surprise before. In 2015, he used this election rules “loophole” to jump into the presidential race late – and then won. A repeat of this scenario is still the hope for many of his supporters. </p>
<h2>So, who is running then?</h2>
<p>With neither President Duterte nor Mayor Duterte in the race at this point, the ruling coalition is split into several camps. </p>
<p>Alongside Marcos Jr., Duterte’s favoured police chief, Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, is also running. However, he is considered by many to be <a href="https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1500142/pdp-laban-cusi-wing-bato-not-best-presidential-bet-but-hes-available">merely a placeholder</a> in case Sara Duterte decides to run. </p>
<p>This means Marcos Jr. is the likely candidate from the ruling coalition.</p>
<p>Despite being extremely worried about another Marcos or Duterte presidency, the opposition has yet to <a href="https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/04/25/can-a-new-philippine-popular-front-defeat-dutertismo/">bridge the divide between the various anti-Duterte groups</a> and deliver a consensus candidate. This is crucial for the opposition parties, as their numbers have been dwindling in parliament and they’ve been shut out from power for the past five years. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/maria-ressa-nobel-prize-winner-risks-life-and-liberty-to-hold-philippines-government-to-account-169564">Maria Ressa: Nobel prize-winner risks life and liberty to hold Philippines government to account</a>
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<p>Vice President Leni Robredo, however, has entered the race. But she is lagging in pre-election polls and the fragmented opposition could hurt her campaign. Some anti-Duterte <a href="https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1496966/progressive-group-says-it-sought-meeting-with-vp-robredo-on-2022-polls-but-spurned">labour</a> and <a href="https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/10/11/news/national/is-leni-the-unifying-leader-our-country-desperately-needs/1817913">farmers’ groups</a> are worried they could be sidelined. </p>
<p>Robredo’s talks with moderates who appeal to broader anti-Duterte constituencies, such as Pacquiao, Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko” Moreno, and Senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, have also broken down. </p>
<p>Robredo’s supporters are fired up by the prospect of running as a more ideologically cohesive group. But there are worries a small party won’t stand a chance against the ruling party coalition in the election.</p>
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<p>Moreno, meanwhile, is pitching a third way between the Duterte and anti-Duterte camps. The Manila mayor is running on a centrist campaign that can supposedly appeal to voters disillusioned with the illiberalism and pandemic mismanagement of the Duterte administration and the elitism and unpopularity of the opposition. </p>
<p>With his reputation as an effective and efficient mayor, his poll numbers are competitive, at least for now. But his centrist position makes him vulnerable to attacks from the loyal bases of both camps. More importantly, any pandering to Duterte or Marcos voters may cost him his democratic credentials.</p>
<h2>Stakes are high</h2>
<p>In the coming months, Filipino voters will decide whether they want continuity, change, or a combination of these two things. The stakes are high, with the country still dealing with high daily COVID cases and a <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=PHL">slow vaccination rollout</a>, as well as a scarred economy <a href="https://business.inquirer.net/331668/ph-faces-long-road-to-economic-resurgence">just emerging</a> from last year’s recession. </p>
<p>An opposition win in next year’s election could also mean Duterte may be tried for his violent war on drugs, both in domestic courts and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/15/icc-authorises-full-inquiry-rodrigo-duterte-war-on-drugs-philippines">potentially by the International Criminal Court</a>, which has just launched a full investigation. </p>
<p>The election will clarify which direction Filipinos want to steer the country’s democracy – towards further erosion under a Marcos presidency, a return to liberal reform led by Robredo, or perhaps a more middle-of-the-road approach with Moreno. It’s a decisive election for the country at a critical time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169535/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cleve V. Arguelles is Head of Research and Fellow of WR Numero Research, Inc. WRN provides public opinion polling services to both public and private sector organizations including political parties.</span></em></p>The stakes are high for the Philippines ahead of next year’s election. Will the country choose a reformer, or will democracy erode even further?Cleve V. Arguelles, PhD Candidate, Department of Political & Social Change, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1695792021-10-08T20:19:21Z2021-10-08T20:19:21ZNobel Peace Prize for journalists serves as reminder that freedom of the press is under threat from strongmen and social media<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425559/original/file-20211008-19-knb6u1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C24%2C4157%2C2636&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When the reporter becomes the story.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NobelPeacePrize/f29a9d63868c4e1a8b1c38b42ad63e54/photo?Query=nobel&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=11047&currentItemNo=61">AP Photo/Bullit Marquez</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Thirty-two years ago next month, I was in Germany reporting on the fall of the Berlin Wall, an event then heralded as a triumph of Western democratic liberalism and even “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/syria-berlin-china-russia-islamic-state-group-5b8e1898db6246a9a8a82f66f35b8250">the end of history</a>.”</p>
<p>But democracy isn’t doing so well across the globe now. Nothing underscores how far we have come from that moment of irrational exuberance than the powerful warning the Nobel Prize Committee felt compelled to issue on Oct. 8, 2021 in awarding its coveted Peace Prize to two reporters.</p>
<p>“They are representative for all journalists,” Berit Reiss-Andersen, the chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, said <a href="https://youtu.be/7xRsj4oBixs">in announcing the award</a> to Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov, “in a world in which democracy and freedom of the press face increasingly adverse conditions.” </p>
<p>The honor for Muratov, the co-founder of Russia’s <a href="https://novayagazeta.ru/">Novaya Gazeta</a>, and Ressa, the CEO of the Philippine news site <a href="https://www.rappler.com/">Rappler</a>, is enormously important. In part that’s because of the protection that global attention may afford two journalists under imminent and relentless threat from the strongmen who run their respective countries. “The world is watching,” Reiss-Andersen pointedly noted <a href="https://youtu.be/Gg9J2qaOfJU">in an interview</a> after making the announcement.</p>
<p>Equally important is the larger message the committee wanted to deliver. “Without media, you cannot have a strong democracy,” Reiss-Andersen said.</p>
<h2>Global political threats</h2>
<p>The two laureates’ cases highlight an emergency for civil society: Muratov, editor of what the Nobel Prize Committee described as “the most independent paper in Russia today,” has seen <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211008-muratov-and-novaya-gazeta-russia-s-independent-media-stalwarts">six of his colleagues slain</a> for their work criticizing Russian leader Vladimir Putin. </p>
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<img alt="Dmitry Muratov cowers from streams of champagne fly out of bottles held by well-wishers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425564/original/file-20211008-23-s6ibc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/425564/original/file-20211008-23-s6ibc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425564/original/file-20211008-23-s6ibc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425564/original/file-20211008-23-s6ibc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425564/original/file-20211008-23-s6ibc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425564/original/file-20211008-23-s6ibc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/425564/original/file-20211008-23-s6ibc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Dmitry Muratov celebrates his Nobel Prize win.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXRussiaNobelPeacePrize/403f8c620b2a44e2a899300b93192614/photo?Query=Dmitry%20AND%20Muratov&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=76&currentItemNo=12">AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko</a></span>
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<p>Ressa, a former CNN reporter, <a href="https://www.manilatimes.net/2020/08/26/latest-stories/breakingnews/ca-affirms-travel-ban-on-maria-ressa/759648">is under a de facto travel ban</a> because <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953902894/philippine-journalist-says-rodrigo-dutertes-presidency-is-based-on-fear-violence">the government of Rodrigo Duterte, in an obvious attempt to bankrupt Rappler, has filed so many legal cases</a> against the website that Ressa must go from judge to judge to ask permission any time she wants to leave the country. </p>
<p>Inevitably, Ressa told me recently, one of them says “no.” Maybe that will change now that she has a date in Oslo. But Ressa probably knows better than to hold her breath. </p>
<p>Last year, when I – a long-time journalist turned professor of journalism – helped organize a group of fellow Princeton alumni to sign a letter of support for Ressa, <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/princeton-alumni-trump-convince-duterte-maria-ressa-rappler">more than 400 responded</a>. They included members of Congress and state legislatures and former diplomats who served presidents of both parties. One of them was former Secretary of State George P. Shultz, who died several months later, making a show of solidarity with Maria Ressa one of his last public acts. This show of support is a sign of what’s at stake.</p>
<p>Three decades after the downfall of totalitarian regimes in Eastern Europe, forces of darkness and intolerance are on the march. Journalists are the canaries down the noxious mine shaft. <a href="https://cpj.org/">Attacks on them are becoming more brazen</a>: whether it is the grisly <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45812399">dismemberment of Saudi dissident and writer Jamal Khashoggi</a>, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarusian-dissident-arrested-plane-grounding-appears-resurface-online-2021-07-07/">grounding of a commercial airplane to snatch a Belarusian journalist</a> or the infamous graffiti “<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/capitol-riot-men-posing-with-murder-the-media-claim-reporters-2021-1">Murder the Media</a>” scrawled onto a door of the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6 insurrection.</p>
<p>This irrational hatred of purveyors of facts knows no ideology. Former <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2017/02/21/trumps-troubling-relationship-with-the-press/">U.S. President Donald Trump’s disdain for the press</a> is at least equaled by that of leftist Nicaraguan leader Daniel Ortega, whose response to his critics in the media has been to, well, <a href="https://cpj.org/2021/06/nicaraguan-police-detain-journalist-miguel-mendoza-for-alleged-treason/">lock ‘em up</a>. </p>
<h2>Digital menace</h2>
<p>What makes today’s threats to free expression especially insidious is that they don’t come just from the usual suspects – thuggish government censors. </p>
<p>They are amplified and weaponized by social media networks that claim the privilege of free speech protection while they allow themselves to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/facebooks-algorithms-fueled-massive-foreign-propaganda-campaigns-during-the-2020-election-heres-how-algorithms-can-manipulate-you-168229">hijacked by slanderers and propagandists</a>. </p>
<p>No one has done more to expose the complicity of these platforms in the attack on democracy than Ressa, a tech enthusiast who built her publication’s website to interface with Facebook and now <a href="https://restofworld.org/2020/the-journalist-vs-facebook/">accuses the company of endangering her own freedom</a> with its laissez-faire approach to the slander being propagated on its site.</p>
<p>“Freedom of expression is full of paradoxes,” the Nobel Committee’s Reiss-Andersen observed, in an interview after awarding the Peace Prize. She made it clear that the award to Ressa and Muratov was intended to tackle those paradoxes too.</p>
<p>Asked why the Peace Prize went to two individual journalists – rather than to one of the press freedom organizations, such as the Committee to Protect Journalists, that have represented Ressa, Muratov and so many of their endangered colleagues – Reiss-Anderson said the Nobel Committee deliberately chose working reporters. </p>
<p>Ressa and Muratov represent “a golden standard,” she said, of “journalism of high quality.” In other words, they are fact-finders and truth-seekers, not purveyors of clickbait. </p>
<p>That golden standard is increasingly endangered, in large part because of the digital revolution that shattered the business model for public service journalism. </p>
<p>“Free, independent and fact-based journalism serves to protect against abuse of power,” Reiss-Andersen said in the prize announcement. But it is increasingly being undermined and supplanted by what’s called “content,” served up algorithmically from <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2017/apr/20/politifacts-guide-fake-news-websites-and-what-they/">sources that are not transparent</a> in ways that are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/06/opinion/facebook-whistleblower-section-230.html">designed to addict</a> and that drive partisanship, tribalism and division. </p>
<p>This poses a challenge for public policymakers and the democracies they represent. How to regulate digital media and still protect free speech? How to support the labor-intensive work of journalism and still protect its independence? </p>
<p>Answering those questions won’t be easy. But democracy may be at a tipping point. With its recognition of two investigative journalists and the crucial – and dangerous – work they do to support democracy, the Nobel Committee has invited us to begin the debate. </p>
<p><em>Correction: This story has been updated to state the correct place, Oslo, where the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded.</em> </p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: Naomi Schalit, senior politics editor at The Conversation, signed the open letter “In defense of press freedom” organized by author Kathy Kiely in July 2020.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Over 110,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169579/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathy Kiely does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to two courageous journalists who have faced repression and death by doing their work.Kathy Kiely, Professor and Lee Hills Chair of Free Press Studies, University of Missouri-ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1625472021-06-15T12:26:29Z2021-06-15T12:26:29ZIt wasn’t just politics that led to Netanyahu’s ouster – it was fear of his demagoguery<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406250/original/file-20210614-128076-15gmd07.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C16%2C3623%2C2406&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Benjamin Netanyahu sits in the Knesset before parliament voted June 13, 2021, in Jerusalem to approve the new government that doesn't include him, </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/israeli-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-look-thoughtful-news-photo/1323383884?adppopup=true">Amir Levy/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is something Shakespearean about Benjamin Netanyahu’s downfall.</p>
<p>As in a scene from “Julius Caesar,” who was assassinated by Roman senators, Netanyahu was deposed by his former underlings, the leaders of the three right-wing parties that have joined the new government – <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/14/whos-who-in-israels-new-patchwork-coalition-government">Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar</a>, all of whom once worked for Netanyahu.</p>
<p>If two of these men had remained loyal to Netanyahu, as they had been for years, then he would still be in power today.</p>
<p>Instead, Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/EXT-LIVE-israel-s-new-government-set-to-be-sworn-in-today-ending-netanyahu-s-12-year-rule-1.9899971">has finally been dethroned</a>. “King Bibi,” as his devoted supporters hail him, ruled Israel for a total of 15 years, including a short stint in the 1990s. He returned to power in 2009, and for the past 12 years he dominated Israeli politics and came to personify Israel in the eyes of the world.</p>
<p>But while personal grudges and political rivalries largely due to Netanyahu’s preening personality have no doubt played a key role in his ouster, they do not fully account for the unyielding opposition he has engendered.</p>
<p>It is not simply a result of individual grievances and political ambitions that Netanyahu can no longer appease or politically buy off his rivals. Nor is it just because <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium.HIGHLIGHT.MAGAZINE-bibi-raised-and-betrayed-a-generation-of-politicians-today-they-dethroned-him-1.9863827">they no longer believe any of his promises</a>. <a href="http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pgpEt8MAAAAJ&hl=en">As a scholar of Israeli politics</a>, I think that it is also, even primarily, because Netanyahu has come to be seen as a danger to Israeli democracy itself, just as former <a href="https://orgs.law.harvard.edu/democrats/2019/12/10/trump-and-the-threat-to-democracy/">President Donald Trump was in the United States</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406248/original/file-20210614-132348-sd2ug9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Thousands of people dancing in a public square in Tel Aviv, Israel." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406248/original/file-20210614-132348-sd2ug9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406248/original/file-20210614-132348-sd2ug9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406248/original/file-20210614-132348-sd2ug9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406248/original/file-20210614-132348-sd2ug9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406248/original/file-20210614-132348-sd2ug9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406248/original/file-20210614-132348-sd2ug9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406248/original/file-20210614-132348-sd2ug9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thousands of people take part in spontaneous celebrations in Rabin Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, after the Knesset voted on June 13, 2021, to oust longtime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/thousands-of-people-take-part-in-spontaneous-celebrations-news-photo/1323388597?adppopup=true">Guy Prives/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Becoming a demagogue</h2>
<p>In recent years, particularly since he was indicted on <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-47409739">corruption charges</a> in several cases involving bribery, fraud and breach of trust, Netanyahu has become increasingly autocratic.</p>
<p>During a period <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/03/freedom-houses-report-shows-democracy-in-trouble/618173/">when democracies around the world have been challenged by “authoritarian populists” </a>such as Trump, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/04/europe-hungary-viktor-orban-coronavirus-covid19-democracy/609313/">Hungary’s Viktor Orbán</a>, Turkey’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/18/business/west-democracy-turkey-erdogan-financial-crisis.html">Recep Tayyip Erdoğan</a>, India’s <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/donald-trump-narendra-modi-autocrats/607042/">Narendra Modi</a>, Brazil’s <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/14/bolsonaro-brazil-trump-anti-democracy-elections/">Jair Bolsonaro</a> and <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kp79x/duterte-sona-authoritarian-death-penalty">Rodrigo Duterte</a> of the Philippines, Netanyahu has eagerly joined this <a href="https://peterbeinart.substack.com/p/benjamin-netanyahu-father-of-our?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyMTY1MzI1NiwicG9zdF9pZCI6Mzc1NjMwNjIsIl8iOiJrMEtDMiIsImlhdCI6MTYyMzY5MzU2MywiZXhwIjoxNjIzNjk3MTYzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTA1MjYwIiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.dgH82tMsAhpg_pmHsURvFDLlP49qYMWazI3guak44gI">global club of illiberal strongmen and publicly embraced these controversial leaders.</a></p>
<p>Domestically, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/08/22/benjamin-netanyahu-and-the-politics-of-grievance/">he adopted many of their tactics</a>, trying to undermine the independence of the judiciary, neuter regulators, control or muzzle the media and use the power of patronage to reward loyalists and punish critics.</p>
<p>Netanyahu has also frequently employed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/06/netanyahu-says-israeli-coalition-is-result-of-election-fraud">populist rhetoric,</a> railing against the supposedly leftist elite, the “deep state” and the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-09/netanyahu-slams-israeli-media-as-fake-news-in-defiant-speech">“fake news” media</a>, all of whom he has alleged are conspiring against him.</p>
<p>He has portrayed himself as the victim of sinister, shadowy and powerful groups <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/13/world/middleeast/benjamin-netanyahu-israel-prime-minister.html">who are the enemies of the “people.”</a> In classic populist fashion, Netanyahu has claimed that only he represents the “people,” specifically, Israeli Jews, since Arab citizens of Israel are cast as dangerous Others. He demonizes his political opponents as threats to the nation, even traitors.</p>
<p>By deftly manipulating the fears and prejudices of the Israeli public, Netanyahu became, essentially, a demagogue.</p>
<h2>Personal becomes political</h2>
<p>The purpose of Netanyahu’s assault on the pillars of Israeli democracy was simple: for him to remain in power and stay out of jail.</p>
<p>To achieve this, he was willing to delegitimize <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-how-israel-s-supreme-court-ended-up-on-the-ballot-in-tuesday-s-election-1.9632792">not only his political opponents, but also state institutions</a> like the Supreme Court, the attorney general’s office and the police.</p>
<p>In a desperate attempt to evade his corruption trial for bribery and fraud and a possible lengthy prison sentence, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/05/world/middleeast/netanyahu-on-trial-israel.html">Netanyahu sought to gain immunity from prosecution as a sitting prime minister</a> while denying he was doing so.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406252/original/file-20210614-102344-ssdh2o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Benjamin Netanyahu stands in front of a large photo showing him and U.S. President Donald Trump." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406252/original/file-20210614-102344-ssdh2o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406252/original/file-20210614-102344-ssdh2o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406252/original/file-20210614-102344-ssdh2o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406252/original/file-20210614-102344-ssdh2o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406252/original/file-20210614-102344-ssdh2o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406252/original/file-20210614-102344-ssdh2o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406252/original/file-20210614-102344-ssdh2o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Netanyahu, here at a 2020 campaign rally, made much of his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump – emulating much of his authoritarian rhetoric.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/israeli-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-stand-near-a-news-photo/1195197148?adppopup=true">Amir Levy/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/netanyahu-pleads-not-guilty-trial-resume-00acff1fc1f26aa7aa722e296b732f7f">His stubborn refusal to resign</a>, even after his criminal trial began – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/netanyahus-corruption-trial-opens-with-a-sitting-israeli-premier-in-the-dock-for-the-first-time/2020/05/22/14f2b206-9ab9-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html">the first time a sitting Israeli prime minister was in the dock</a> – appeared to be driven by his desire to use his position as prime minister to gain legal immunity or at least intimidate the lawyers and judges he might face, and convince the public that he was being persecuted.</p>
<p>It wasn’t only his political survival and personal freedom, however, that motivated Netanyahu. He seems to sincerely believe that Israel will be endangered without his leadership. His long tenure in power apparently convinced him that only he can steer the ship of state, especially given the treacherous waters it must navigate.</p>
<p>“Try to damage as little as possible of the magnificent economy we are handing over to you, so that we can fix it as fast as possible when we return,” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/06/13/world/israel-knesset-bennett-lapid-netanyahu">he said as power was handed over</a> to the coalition.</p>
<p>Like other longtime leaders, Netanyahu came to <a href="https://time.com/6072010/benjamin-netanyahu-legacy-israel/">equate his own personal and political interests with those of Israel.</a> What was good for him was good for Israel; what harmed him, harmed Israel. Netanyahu also convinced his supporters of this equation, just as many of his critics became convinced that the opposite was true.</p>
<p>Thus, Netanyahu managed to divide Israelis into two antagonistic camps: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israel-coalition-netanyahu-bennett-lapid/2021/06/01/614bb632-c2c9-11eb-89a4-b7ae22aa193e_story.html">pro-Netanyahu versus anti-Netanyahu</a>. This division replaced the <a href="https://www.israel-peace.com/about/">traditional left-right ideological divide</a> that had dominated Israeli politics for decades – and which is why the new government spans the ideological spectrum.</p>
<p>[<em>Explore the intersection of faith, politics, arts and culture.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/this-week-in-religion-76/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=religion-explore">Sign up for This Week in Religion.</a>]</p>
<h2>Surviving without Netanyahu</h2>
<p>It is premature to write Netanyahu’s political obituary – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/13/world/middleeast/netanyahu-naftali-bennett-israel-vote.html">he remains the leader of Likud, by far the largest party in the Knesset</a>, Israel’s parliament. He has vowed to bring down the newly installed “change government” and swiftly return to power.</p>
<p>He could well accomplish this task given his Machiavellian political skills and the inherent fragility of Israel’s new governing coalition, which is composed of no fewer than eight different parties ranging across the political spectrum. Since it depends on a razor-thin parliamentary majority of 61 of the 120 Knesset seats, the government will be extremely vulnerable to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/13/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-parliament-speech.html">Netanyahu’s relentless efforts to topple it.</a></p>
<p>But however short-lived Israel’s fledgling government turns out to be, its mere formation is not only something of a political miracle – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/whos-who-israels-new-patchwork-coalition-government-2021-06-13/">bringing together religious and secular ultranationalist right-wingers, liberal centrists, secular leftists and Arab Islamists</a> – but also a stunning repudiation of Netanyahu.</p>
<p>Ultimately, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-12-netanyahu-years-transfer-of-power-crucially-affirms-israeli-democracy/">the rule of law and democratic process in Israel have survived Netanyahu’s attacks</a>. A peaceful transition of power has occurred, despite angry protests and violent threats against some of the members of the incoming government.</p>
<p>The mere fact that Israel has a new prime minister will now demonstrate to many Israelis that the country can survive without Netanyahu’s leadership. Even if the new government accomplishes very little, this alone will be an important achievement.</p>
<p>By rejecting Netanyahu’s demagoguery, Prime Minister Bennett can also begin to heal some of the divisiveness that Netanyahu stoked and exploited, <a href="https://theconversation.com/netanyahu-may-be-ousted-but-his-hard-line-foreign-policies-remain-162580">even if his government continues many of Netanyahu’s policies, as seems likely</a>. This, if nothing else, will be the “change” it promises.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dov Waxman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Benjamin Netanyahu wasn’t ousted just for typical political reasons, such as other politicians’ ambitions or grievances. He was thrown out because he was seen as a threat to democracy.Dov Waxman, Director of the UCLA Y&S Nazarian Center for Israel Studies and The Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation Chair in Israel Studies, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1332002020-08-17T15:28:03Z2020-08-17T15:28:03ZAfter Trump and Brexit: The coming of the progressive wave<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352593/original/file-20200812-20-13tvk20.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3714%2C2848&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"> In this August 2016 photo, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, right, welcomes pro-Brexit British politician Nigel Farage to speak at a campaign rally in Jackson, Miss</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2016, it seemed to some like the world turned upside down.</p>
<p>Donald Trump was elected by a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/president">slim margin</a> to the White House. The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results">Brexit referendum</a> pushing the United Kingdom to leave the European Union passed. A year later, Marine LePen, a far-right xenophobic candidate, made a surprising showing in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/23/france-presidential-le-pen-macron-melenchon-fillon-first-round-vote">French election</a>. </p>
<p>Many of the explanations for this seemingly strange historic turn are based on short-term events. The pundits focus on simple observations, <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/">poll and survey numbers</a> and the latest outrage on social media that might ephemerally change a voter’s mind. This kind of punditry essentially turns politics into a horse race. </p>
<h2>Cycle of populism repeats throughout history</h2>
<p>In my 2019 book, <a href="https://www.peterlang.com/view/title/70266"><em>The Great Disruption: Understanding the Populist Forces Behind Trump, Brexit, and LePen</em></a>, I point out that populism has occurred throughout history, from Julius Caesar and Napoleon to Andrew Jackson, Juan Perón and Adolf Hitler. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man holds a banner with the images of Trump, Bolsonaro and Argentina's President Mauricio Macri making a swastika." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352591/original/file-20200812-14-r6cew5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352591/original/file-20200812-14-r6cew5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352591/original/file-20200812-14-r6cew5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352591/original/file-20200812-14-r6cew5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352591/original/file-20200812-14-r6cew5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352591/original/file-20200812-14-r6cew5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352591/original/file-20200812-14-r6cew5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man holds a banner with the images of Trump, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, right, and Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri, making a swastika, during a protest against the visit of Bolsonaro to Argentina in Buenos Aires in June 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The basic parameters are as follows: long-term, widespread disillusionment threatens the basic legitimacy of a political economic system. Charismatic outsider figures appear to claim they’ll save the day, promising, as Trump did, that they alone can fix it and will engage in widespread reforms (“<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/05/24/trump-promised-to-drain-the-swamp-the-swamp-seems-to-be-doing-fine/">drain the swamp</a>”).<br>
The message resonates because a significant proportion of society no longer believes the existing system is capable of reform. Populist leaders step in to embody the needs and frustrations of large disaffected groups without representing anything in particular. </p>
<h2>Scapegoating</h2>
<p>The most potent weapon is scapegoating unseen forces (“criminal immigrants” or the “Deep State”); once those forces are stopped, they argue, we will return to better times (“make America great again”). False nostalgia ignores what life was really like. </p>
<p>Trump’s story fits the historical pattern to a tee. </p>
<p>He is a wealthy scion, but one who never held political office. He has oratory and entertainment skills, particularly in front of a large crowd; what appears as negativity is a lightning rod for some who have nursed decades of pent-up frustrations and a feeling of being unheard.</p>
<p>Like all populists with no track record, Trump could not only condemn the system but promise the moon: universal health care at low cost; a renewed respect for American power around the world while making others pay their “fair share”; getting rid of lobbyists and special interests; rocket-fuelled economic growth; stopping crime and helping minorities to move up; balancing the budget, etc.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XQFItVBKlAU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Trump promises universal health care in 2016. Courtesy of Great Yet.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a blank slate, those who feel downtrodden could project whatever wishes they wanted upon him.</p>
<h2>A global trend</h2>
<p>It wasn’t limited to Trump. The recent global populist moment features characters as diverse as Nigel Farage, Viktor Orbán, Rodrigo Duterte and Jair Bolsonaro, right-wing politicians in the U.K., Hungary, the Philippines and Brazil respectively.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-cant-just-blame-rising-inequality-for-the-growth-of-populism-around-the-world-120951">Why we can't just blame rising inequality for the growth of populism around the world</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This wave of populism can’t just be the result of the re-emergence of white racism (or “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/us/obama-trump-white-backlash/index.html">whitelash</a>”) in the U.S., since it happened around the world at roughly the same time. </p>
<p>As I explain in my book, living and working populations have become more diverse across the West than at any time previously in history. A Black president and the dismantling of Confederate monuments would have been unthinkable just two decades ago. There is still egregious race and gender bias, but most Americans accept <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/upshot/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html">Black Lives Matter</a>, #MeToo and LGBTQ rights as legitimate. </p>
<p>Trump’s evocation of race, as in his recent suggestion that he would stop minorities from <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/06/suburbs-history-race-politics-391966">bringing crime to suburbs</a>, is completely out of touch with the present reality. His wielding of race without a winning economic record is a losing ticket.</p>
<p>Undoubtedly, Trump’s cronies will blame the COVID-19 pandemic for his impending loss. But it is his lack of skill at governance, on the coronavirus and countless other fronts, that will lead to his electoral disaster. In fact, polls have had his <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html">disapproval rating</a> at above 50 per cent since February 2017.</p>
<h2>Constant stream of lies</h2>
<p>For a populist, suggesting false remedies such as hydroxychloroquine or bleach is part of the misinformation playbook, a constant stream of lies that the media repeats to great ratings, creating confusion about what is true.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-trump-pushed-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-covid-19-hundreds-of-thousands-of-prescriptions-followed-despite-little-evidence-that-it-worked-140156">When Trump pushed hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, hundreds of thousands of prescriptions followed despite little evidence that it worked</a>
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</em>
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<p>When used against personal opponents, such as 2016 presidential primary opponent Ted Cruz — whose father Trump accused of being involved in the Kennedy assassination — the narrative feeds into <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/united-states-of-conspiracy/">grand conspiracy theories</a> used to explain why populists are so ineffective once in office. </p>
<p>Populists are only <em>against</em> the system, they aren’t <em>for</em> anything in particular, as reflected in Trump’s ever-changing personnel, messaging and strategy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trump gestures while speaking into a microphone with Bolsonaro looking on." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352590/original/file-20200812-14-xdeg47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/352590/original/file-20200812-14-xdeg47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352590/original/file-20200812-14-xdeg47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352590/original/file-20200812-14-xdeg47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352590/original/file-20200812-14-xdeg47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352590/original/file-20200812-14-xdeg47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/352590/original/file-20200812-14-xdeg47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro speak during a news conference in the Rose Garden of the White House in March 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>It’s similar to how Brexit supporters were against the hollowing-out of the economy in key sectors and regions of the U.K., blaming it on foreigners, but not really for any particular post-EU configuration. </p>
<p>Populists inevitably fail because they don’t know how to govern. They paradoxically have to use the instruments of governance to reform government, an inherent contradiction doomed to fail. </p>
<h2>Counter-movements</h2>
<p>I point to five underlying forces that represent the global systemic crisis and foreshadow the progressive evolution of western society: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Rising inequality and a decline in middle-class mobility.</p></li>
<li><p>The related collapse in the West of manufacturing and the financialization of the economy.</p></li>
<li><p>The rise of China and its different political economic approach and values.</p></li>
<li><p>The unresolved urgency of climate change.</p></li>
<li><p>Demographics and the increasing challenges for the millennial and subsequent generations who will take over leadership.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic further exposes all of these issues and the need to return to sound governance, but one that has a vision for change.</p>
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<p>Waves of populism result in polarization and a series of counter-movements that have their own populist heroes promising genuine change. An example is Bernie Sanders, who had a legitimate platform but no real plan for gaining mainstream support for it.</p>
<p>Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s nod to a progressive platform — including choosing Sen. Kamala Harris, of Jamaican and Indian origin, as his running mate — along with his experience governing gives us hope. Maybe this recent wave of destructive populism, in the U.S. anyway, has run its course.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133200/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andy Hira does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most populists are only against the system, they aren’t for anything in particular, as Donald Trump’s presidency and Brexit proves. A progressive wave will soon be upon us in response.Andy Hira, Professor of Political Science, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1380252020-05-07T14:03:32Z2020-05-07T14:03:32ZPhilippines: Rodrigo Duterte’s dictatorship sinks to new depths with closure of main broadcaster<p>After just four years in power, Rodrigo Duterte, the president of the Philippines, has turned his country into a deadly dictatorship one again. Now the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52548703">closure</a> of the country’s major mainstream news platform ABS-CBN on May 5 in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic has struck deep historical chords in a country that has heard this sorry song before. </p>
<p>The broadcaster was <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/philippines/manila-times/20160413/281676844072164">ordered off air</a> by the country’s media regulator, which said its licence had expired and needed to be renewed by Congress. But Duterte has had an ongoing battle with the independent ABS-CBN and the move was seen as a clear attack on media freedom.</p>
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<p>The regime of former Filipino dictator Ferdinand Marcos also closed the broadcaster <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/06/20/abs-cbn-closure-not-a-repeat-of-1972-shutdown-panelo">down in 1972</a> when it imposed martial law. Marcos’s regime <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/philippines/manila-times/20160413/281676844072164">murdered</a>, disappeared and tortured its own people with impunity. Assassinations plagued public life at every level – and there were 3,257 officially documented killings. </p>
<p>Now Duterte’s death squads put the Marcos years into a chilling context. Some estimate at least <a href="https://www.philstar.com/nation/2019/03/06/1898959/29000-deaths-probed-drug-war-launched">29,000 people</a> have been killed in Duterte’s so-called drug war.</p>
<p>The current extent of the alleged <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320469543_Is_the_Philippine_War_on_Drugs_an_Act_of_Genocide">genocide</a> is hard to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50236481">know</a> and will be even harder without ABS-CBN. Investigative journalism and accurate reporting are practically impossible. Journalists are regularly <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/asia-and-the-pacific/philippines/report-philippines/">assassinated</a> along with lawyers and human rights workers. Families and society are bereft of justice and accountability. The Philippines has become increasingly perilous for many citizens and an understandable <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/philippines#1ff4dc">fear</a> of retribution silences many in 2020 despite all the communication tools available. </p>
<p>The timing of the ABS-CBN shutdown could not be worse. Filipinos desperately need their largest broadcaster – the oldest in south-east Asia – for reliable information about COVID-19. Anti-vaxxer conspiracies around dengue fever and <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/07/19/measles-outbreaks-declared-in-more-luzon-visayas-areas">measles</a> vaccinations have caused recent tragic <a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/dengue-vaccine-philippines-outbreak">outbreaks</a> of both diseases in the Philippines. And yet Duterte’s brand of “<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30553118">medical populism</a>” has spread misinformation, claiming people can rely on <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-update-duterte-claims-filipino-antibodies-can-prevent-covid-19-2920675">fictional “Filipino antibodies”</a> to fight COVID-19.</p>
<h2>Few checks on power remain</h2>
<p>The velocity of Duterte’s reign of death and abuse has caught <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0169796X16654594?casa_token=jSWw1USroOAAAAAA%3AgZgebYkM7PIF4k8Xf-w_z4o-Hs7Q3HinsI8Bl4DKOwex1eL7xYgiDAhf0ZuPV8PLbSiZX-qq7Kv7-Q">weak institutions</a> and opponents unprepared. His populist electoral victory can in no way excuse the atrocities and yet Duterte’s chauvinistic style and cavalier actions still remain politically <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-27/duterte-takes-on-philippine-elite-and-ends-up-even-more-popular">popular</a>. </p>
<p>His hashtag friendly campaign title Du30 has become a powerful brand – if not now a violent and well-connected <a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD1062042">clan</a>. Du30-ism is undeniably a cultural and political juggernaut that shows very few signs of abating, or being met by an emerging counter-force. Duterte now controls every aspect of public administration and there are no checks and balances to his power. The fourth estate is now severely – if not mortally – disabled and Du30’s power absolute, for now. </p>
<p>Duterte’s power over the security forces is based on an old and unsubtle <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Julio_Teehankee/publication/313359654_Clientelism_and_Party_Politics_in_the_Philippines/links/58974d1faca2721f0dae1142/Clientelism-and-Party-Politics-in-the-Philippines.pdf">system of patronage</a> normally employed by local clans, mayors and alike. Now that the provincial “<a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=0it4S_WGapIC&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=big+bossism&ots=1p7SifHOEl&sig=PrHeLySibobjuS1_Rj0WbvXl90o#v=onepage&q=big%20bossism&f=false">big boss</a>” is resident in the presidential palace in Manila, he has a vast network of people in every institution in the country in his debt. The military has been overtly politicised and, conversely, politics and culture have become increasingly militarised. </p>
<p>Duterte enables both masked assassins on the back of motorbikes, and killers in <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/07/19/learn-art-of-assassination-duterte-tells-police-military">uniform</a>. Just as with Marcos, it will take decades to repair public trust and legitimacy in the security services.</p>
<h2>‘Big Bossism’ reigns</h2>
<p>Politicisation of supposedly independent judicial and legislative branches of government is all but confirmed with the shutdown of ABS-CBN. Duterte’s appointees <a href="https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2019/12/4/new-supreme-court-justices.html?fbclid=IwAR3lrLTGhflXLrn5SyrDDPl836_agVnCkYQxjDp5SYCdnUXxh68RZCmLGR4">dominate</a> 11 of the 15 judges on the High Court, which protects him and his cronies from justice. The regime has now begun to target the education sector, robbing the next generations of a more progressive future. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/236022-duterte-revives-call-pass-bill-mandatory-rotc">Mandatory military training</a> is being pushed in high schools to further militarise society. University students are being falsely targeted in the drug war and in the fight against communist insurgents using crude divide-and-conquer <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/195048-duterte-up-lumad-slots-protest-students">tactics</a>. </p>
<p>Without a free media, new forms of cultural and political dissent will be needed. So far, social media has been no salvation – it was the horse Du30 rode in on and still dominates. His DDS – Duterte Diehard Supporters or <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10611-009-9191-3">Davao Death Squads</a>, referring to the city where Duterte was a former mayor – patrol online and offline. </p>
<p>At times, it feels little has changed across much of south-east Asia since 1971 when Bruce Lee busted out of Hong Kong to global appeal in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0067824/v">his film The Big Boss</a>. The cultural trope of Big Bossism is entrenched through <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B978012370182450043X">computer games</a>, film and TV across south-east Asia – only now the battle is fought with bots and keyboards, not Kung Fu. </p>
<p>Shutting down ABS-CBN is not merely an echo of the Marcos dictatorship – it is a continuation of the enduring weaknesses in the Filipino state. Duterte is the most recent incarnation of the <a href="https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/publications/publication(39ba11f9-9e7c-41d7-8037-95801e28590d).html">Marcos-era Big Boss</a>, wielding the same power in a more potent and deadly fashion. And just as with Duterte, it’s possible other <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/633758">strongmen</a> or <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00472336.2016.1239751?casa_token=8gLqZSWmCDUAAAAA%3AqeYIBs3J4MffCM-lnmuHMp-azV_hxZl8vUnc55zasFJW7rf-vAwgprV0_UcXOlHnzg-Ws1TPJ1JHvQ">authoritarians</a> could follow.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138025/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Smith receives funding from The Defence Science and Technology Laboratory is an executive agency of the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom. </span></em></p>ABS-CBN, the Philippines main broadcaster, was ordered off air on May 5, in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic.Tom Smith, Principal Lecturer in International Relations, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1170852019-05-16T21:01:05Z2019-05-16T21:01:05ZAre we witnessing the death of liberal democracy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274456/original/file-20190514-60560-hzguyf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3500%2C2331&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to the White House on May 13, 2019. Strongmen like Orbán are increasingly gaining ground as the death knell sounds for liberal democracy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>All over the world, alarm bells are ringing for democracy. Everywhere we find strongmen in charge, enraged citizens and a desperate search for explanations and remedies. <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-philippines-midterm-elections-duterte-20190514-story.html">Rodrigo Duterte</a>’s Philippines. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/13/trump-latest-viktor-orban-hungary-prime-minister-white-house">Viktor Orbán</a>’s Hungary. <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-to-repel-netanyahu-s-attack-on-democracy-the-israeli-left-must-find-its-inner-rage-1.7241480">Benjamin Netanyahu</a>’s Israel. Maybe something’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/13/american-conservatives-are-new-fellow-travelers/?utm_term=.c5b2453d86e2">even going wrong in the United States.</a></p>
<p>In 1992, <a href="https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/francis-fukuyama-on-identity-dignity-and-threats-to-liberal-democracy">political theorist Francis Fukuyama</a> declared there was finally a solution to the riddle: “Who should rule, and why?” The answer: liberal democracy.</p>
<p>A generation later, Fukuyama’s declaration is not wearing well.</p>
<p>As it turns out, the structural flaw that would hobble liberal democracy had actually been identified 30 years earlier, <a href="https://doi.org/10.7202/1032806ar">in a study called <em>Possessive Individualism</em></a> by University of Toronto political scientist Crawford Brough Macpherson.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274457/original/file-20190514-60545-142mb2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274457/original/file-20190514-60545-142mb2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274457/original/file-20190514-60545-142mb2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274457/original/file-20190514-60545-142mb2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274457/original/file-20190514-60545-142mb2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=763&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274457/original/file-20190514-60545-142mb2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274457/original/file-20190514-60545-142mb2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274457/original/file-20190514-60545-142mb2l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=959&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An undated photo of Macpherson.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Creative Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>He pointed out that liberal democracy was a contradiction in terms. From the 16th century to the 20th, classical liberals of the British tradition had argued for the rights of the “individual.” In theory and practice, though, they only counted a person as an individual (almost always male) who had command over himself and his possessions, including human ones.</p>
<p>For all his inspiring words about government created by and responsive to “the people,” supposedly liberal philosopher John Locke, <a href="https://aeon.co/essays/does-lockes-entanglement-with-slavery-undermine-his-philosophy">investor in the slave trade,</a> had a narrow view of who got to be considered a rights-bearing individual.</p>
<p>The key was property. Society was little more than an agreement among the privileged to respect each other’s property rights.</p>
<h2>Hardly pro-democracy</h2>
<p>These liberals were not democrats, but after the rise of industrial capitalism, they had to respond to growing populations of working people with their own, often democratic, ideas. Generations of liberals, <a href="https://mises.org/library/john-stuart-mill-and-new-liberalism">with John Stuart Mill at the helm</a>, struggled to reconcile their assumptions about free-standing individuals who owned property with the democratic demands of the exploited and excluded.</p>
<p>Until the 1960s, a softer, gentler liberalism seemed to gain ground. The privileges of propertied individuals were preserved, but at a price: welfare programs, unions, public education, housing and health and, worst of all, taxes.</p>
<p>Still, liberals ultimately had to choose between democracy and capitalism. They might find themselves defending both the rights of workers to unionize and of factory owners to fire them, for example. Which should prevail? Macpherson feared the fall-back answer for liberals, whatever their democratic posturing, would often be the owners.</p>
<p>Macpherson’s critics painted him as “yesterday’s thinker.” Didn’t he realize, they asked, that liberals had found a sweet spot — harmonizing the public and the private, the people and the propertied, the many and the few?</p>
<h2>Macpherson’s prescience</h2>
<p>Today, more than three decades after his death, Macpherson’s diagnosis — that the acquisitive drive of unfettered capitalism poses a stark challenge to liberty and democracy — seems very prescient.</p>
<p>Liberal democracy has fallen into a world crisis.</p>
<p>Liberal democrats were working to make democracy safe for property, but to their right were hard-nosed businessmen, economists and politicians working on an extreme makeover of liberal democracy that came to be called “neo-liberalism.”</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-exactly-is-neoliberalism-84755">What exactly is neoliberalism?</a>
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<p>Outraged by infringements on capital, determined to roll back socialism and seeing the market as near-infallible, this determined cadre of conservative intellectuals created a movement of reactionary resistance.</p>
<p>Regulations impeding the free flow of capital were demolished. Once-powerful labour movements were eviscerated.</p>
<p>Liberated from effective regulation, financial institutions developed global chains of indebtedness and speculation which, even after the crisis of 2007, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/06/decade-after-financial-meltdown-underlying-problems-not-fixed">have attained pervasive influence</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-americas-labor-unions-are-about-to-die-69575">Why America's labor unions are about to die</a>
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<p>After three decades of pious liberal hand-wringing, the world is set <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-un/global-temperatures-on-track-for-3-5-degree-rise-by-2100-u-n-idUSKCN1NY186">to warm by three to five degrees</a> Celsius by 2100, a catastrophe <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/18/ending-climate-change-end-capitalism">attributable to unregulated capitalism.</a></p>
<h2>Liberal toolbox of no use</h2>
<p>The propertied patterns underlying these civilization-threatening developments cannot be grasped, let alone resisted, using a liberal toolbox.</p>
<p>In the possessive individualism of classical liberalism, we find the seeds of today’s democracy crisis. A devotion to property over people is democracy in chains and a planet in peril.</p>
<p>Countless people experience the precariousness wrought by this extreme makeover of the world’s liberal order. A neoliberal world, by design, offers minimal security —in employment, social stability, even in reliable networks of knowledge helping us reach reasoned understandings about the world in the company of our fellow citizens.</p>
<p>People longing for security confront, instead, an unintelligible, turbulent world seemingly bent on destroying any prospect of it. Insecurity breeds acute and often angry anxiety. <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2105%2FAJPH.2017.304187">It prompts a search for sanctuary</a> in anti-depressants, opioids and alcohol. A deliberately starved state sector leaves only a few short steps between you and social and economic ruin.</p>
<p>Even the reasoned consideration of factual evidence recedes in a neoliberal world where every institution — newspapers, universities, the state itself — is rethinking itself in neoliberal terms. This very precariousness is represented, not as culturally and psychologically damaging, but as freedom itself.</p>
<p>In this climate, a pervasive culture of militarism offers beleaguered individuals at least the solace of an imagined national community. Our daily work may be regimented, pointless and insecure, but at least we can imagine, beyond it, a world of collective noble endeavour and selfless courage in defence of the nation.</p>
<p>In this militarized culture, many people are plainly looking for strongmen who can stand up for the nation. And around the world, including our corner of it, they’re finding them.</p>
<h2>Responding to nationalism</h2>
<p>The sovereign political paradox of our time is that a global army of people — precarious, harried, anxious, angry, disenfranchised and above all divested of all social rights to reasonably secure and prosperous livelihoods — <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/political-science/2018/nov/20/why-is-populism-suddenly-so-sexy-the-reasons-are-many">is responding avidly to nationalist movements</a> that, on closer inspection, are likely offer them more extreme versions of the hardships they are already enduring.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274458/original/file-20190514-60537-1ojl7wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274458/original/file-20190514-60537-1ojl7wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274458/original/file-20190514-60537-1ojl7wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274458/original/file-20190514-60537-1ojl7wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274458/original/file-20190514-60537-1ojl7wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274458/original/file-20190514-60537-1ojl7wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274458/original/file-20190514-60537-1ojl7wo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Nationalism is gaining in popularity. In this April 2016 photo, a man walks during a protest in Stone Mountain, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Bazemore)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The Macpherson challenge — to liberate democracy from its neoliberal chains by rethinking property relations right down to their foundations — is daunting, but not unprecedented.</p>
<p>There will be conflict, pain and sacrifice in the long revolution to retrieve democracy and the liberties once sincerely defended by liberals. There will also be excitement and energy. The 21st century is already echoing with cries of dynamic, often youthful participants in such struggles, as they challenge the extreme makeover that has so convulsed contemporary life and placed liberal democracy in question.</p>
<p>They know the hour is late. The stakes could not be higher.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian McKay does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Liberal democracy is in trouble, and the seeds of its demise can be found in the property rights so cherished by so-called liberals generations ago.Ian McKay, Director of the Wilson Institute for Canadian History, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1146752019-05-02T21:28:11Z2019-05-02T21:28:11ZWhy is peace failing in the Philippines?<p>With the <a href="https://theconversation.com/islamic-state-the-caliphate-is-off-the-map-for-now-but-will-evolve-in-dangerous-ways-114831">defeat of the Islamic State in Syria</a>, ISIS fighters are exporting their combat to other parts of the world. One of the places they’re eyeing with interest is the Mindanao region in the southern part of the Philippines.</p>
<p>This area is fertile soil for radicalisation. <a href="https://www.international-alert.org/news/religion-not-only-cause-marawi-war-report-says">Different clans and extremist militants struggle</a> for control of the shadow economy of drugs, extortion, kidnapping and other sources of illicit income.</p>
<p>In 2017, <a href="http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/maps/view/philippines">extremist groups</a> linked to Islamic State and previously Al-Qaeda fought a six-month battle with the Philippines government <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/2187238/affiliated-militants-devastated-marawi-philippines-now-they">over Marawi</a>, a city of 200,000 people, leaving it in ruins and killing more than 1,000 people.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.axa-research.org/en/project/lesley-ann-daniels">In my research</a>, I study countries that have emerged from civil conflicts where the inspiration to fight came from a sense of grievance and discrimination arising from identity. I examine how identity matters in the transition to the post-conflict period.</p>
<p>The majority of modern peace agreements fail within five years. What is causing these negotiated peace settlements to collapse?</p>
<h2>Two nations in one country</h2>
<p>There are approximately 5 million Muslims in the Philippines, now concentrated into a corner of the Mindanao island, plus an archipelago of smaller islands, measuring only 13,000 square kilometres. They call themselves the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09592310008423291">Moro people</a> and believe themselves to be a nation, the Bangsamoro, that is separate from the rest of the Philippines.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271480/original/file-20190429-194606-1tp72qv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271480/original/file-20190429-194606-1tp72qv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271480/original/file-20190429-194606-1tp72qv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271480/original/file-20190429-194606-1tp72qv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271480/original/file-20190429-194606-1tp72qv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271480/original/file-20190429-194606-1tp72qv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271480/original/file-20190429-194606-1tp72qv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271480/original/file-20190429-194606-1tp72qv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Mindano is located among the southern islands of the Philippines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Google, 2019</span></span>
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<p>Originally, the Moros spread over all of Mindanao, the second-largest island in the Philippines. When the Philippines were colonised first by Spain from 1565 and then by the United States in 1898, the Moros retained their culture and languages while the rest of the country adopted Spanish and Christianity.</p>
<p>However, the United States began a policy of encouraging Christian settlers from the rest of the Philippines to move into Mindanao and dispossess the local people of their <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/article/220994/pdf">land</a>. This policy was continued by the central government after independence from the United States.</p>
<p>By 1982, the Moros owned only 18% of the land on which they lived. Today, their region is the poorest and least-developed area in the Philippines. According to the <a href="http://www.psa.gov.ph">Philippine Statistics Authority</a>, GDP per capita is approximately US$650, about 20% of the average for the Philippines, and most people are subsistence farmers.</p>
<p>Since the 1970s, armed groups in the Bangsamoro area of Mindanao island have been fighting for independence, with an estimated <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/701961468776746799/pdf/31822.pdf">120,000 deaths from the conflict</a>. Despite peace agreements with successive groups, parts of the area are still lawless and racked with violence.</p>
<h2>Identity claims over unsatisfied grievances</h2>
<p>Using identity markers as fuel for mobilisation and conflict onset is a well-known mechanism. A failure to deal with identity claims in peace settlements will often lead to failure. In the Philippines, the government has repeated failed to accommodate the Moros and accept that the Philippines is a multinational state where all groups have equal rights. The Moro are still a second-class minority within their own country, without their own government and without investment.</p>
<p>Dealing with identity claims is important. On the one hand, granting rights and autonomy to minority groups makes peace stronger because it reduces their grievances. On the other, granting autonomy helps to unite the minority group and reinforce its identity.</p>
<p>My research has shown that in the Philippines the grievances have not been satisfied through the peace agreements. In 1996, the government first signed a <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/philippines-implementingtripoli96">peace agreement with the Mindanao rebels</a>. However, the expected autonomy did not take place, in part because Muslims felt that they had been subsumed into the Philippine culture.</p>
<p>For example, the former rebel leader ran for election but as a member of the party of the Philippine president. The region did not get the control it hoped for over its budgets, but rather was dependent on unpredictable handouts from the central government. Nor were the Moros given political representation in the central government, where political appointments were optional. Furthermore, the former rebels have been accused of using their political position only for widespread personal enrichment, while the situation of the Mindanao people was not significantly affected by the changes.</p>
<h2>A rich breeding ground for ISIS</h2>
<p>This peace agreement failed because it did not reduce the grievances of the Moros, but neither did it serve to unite them and bring real political representation.</p>
<p>Other Islamic groups have continued fighting. A <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/philippines-comprehensiveagreement2014">peace agreement</a> was made with one of the groups in 2014, though it was only ratified in the Philippine Congress <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/world/asia/philippines-rodrigo-duterte-marawi.html">in 2018</a>. It remains to be seen whether the concessions in the peace agreement can create a sense of Moro unity, can reduce their sense of grievances and can improve their governance.</p>
<p>In the meantime, hard-line Islamist groups and rival clans fester, a rich breeding ground for ISIS fighters looking for recruits.</p>
<p>However, this does not need to be the outcome of an identity conflict. To understand better the processes at work, I also look at a similar situation with a very different outcome.</p>
<h2>A better outcome in Indonesia</h2>
<p>The westernmost tip of Indonesia is Aceh. The region is the most Islamic area of Indonesia and was the site of a long-running low-level fight for independence, which claimed up to <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/949381468774891700/Executive-summary">15,000 lives</a>.</p>
<p>As in Mindanao, this is largely an identity conflict for an area that has a <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=16875">proud and independent history</a> but that had become one of the poorest and most exploited areas of Indonesia. This sense of resentment was a powerful mobilising force for both fighters but also for supporters of the armed movement within the civilian population.</p>
<p><a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/indonesia-memorandumaceh2005">When peace was agreed</a> between the government of Indonesia and the armed fighters (GAM) in 2005, the agreement granted significant autonomy to Aceh including control over revenue, local political representation, and recognition of the distinctive religious, language and cultural environment. Aceh was given powers that no other area in Indonesia has and controls itself as a self-governing and distinct entity. Since the agreement, the area has been peaceful with large-scale reconstruction and investment.</p>
<p>So why has the peace agreement been successful in Aceh?</p>
<p>My research indicates that granting identity rights augments the sense of coherence of a sub-national state. Aceh controls its own budget, can determine its own development policy, can invest in its own education system, has its own legal system, and has its own symbolic head of state. These rights, powers and institutions work together to create a sense of unity within Aceh.</p>
<h2>Recognition can help unifying groups of different people</h2>
<p>The area is not without its disputes. Rival political factions attempt to win support by appealing to a <a href="http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=423157226&Country=Indonesia&topic=Economy&subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=External+sector&oid=1793058763&flid=144915398">narrow and hard-line view of Islamic law</a> in order to mobilise people. Yet these disputes are contained within the political system, rather than preventing the creation of a political system, as in Mindanao. A return to violence seems inconceivable.</p>
<p>The peace agreement in Aceh worked because, on the one hand, it reduced the sense of grievance, reduced economic resentments and granted political power. On the other, it created a separate and unified Aceh identity. By giving wide-ranging recognition to Aceh, the government of Indonesia defused the resentment against the central government.</p>
<p>Identity is widely used as a way to mobilise fighters. Concessions over identity can also work to create peace, by tackling grievances, but also by creating a more coherent sense of identity. Governments are often scared to recognise minority groups, believing that giving them rights will create a desire for more autonomy.</p>
<p>However, recognition can also unify groups, creating a confident and coherent nation that can demand better internal governance, better political representation, and ultimately, a more durable peace.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the AXA Research Fund has been supporting nearly 600 projects around the world conducted by researchers from 54 countries. To learn more about this author’s research, visit her <a href="https://www.axa-research.org/en/project/lesley-ann-daniels">dedicated page</a> on the AXA Research Fund website.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114675/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Ann Daniels has received funds by the AXA Research Fund. </span></em></p>After a civil conflict, within five years the majority of modern peace agreements fail. What is causing these negotiated settlements to fall apart?Lesley-Ann Daniels, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow AXA Research Fund, Institut Barcelona Estudis InternacionalsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1120562019-02-21T19:06:29Z2019-02-21T19:06:29ZPress freedom under attack: why Filipino journalist Maria Ressa’s arrest should matter to all of us<p>In a scene right out of a thriller, agents from the Filipino National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) raided journalist and editor Maria Ressa’s Manila office at 5pm on Wednesday February 13, after most courts had closed. They took her from the Rappler newsroom where she is editor, to a police watch house and threw her in a cell. </p>
<p>Ressa’s lawyer bagged up enough cash to post bail and rushed to the only available judge who was presiding over the night court. The judge refused bail, forcing the journalist to spend the night in prison before another judge finally released her the following day. </p>
<p>Ressa’s crime? According to the NBI, she had been arrested on charges of “cyber-libel” – online defamation – for a story alleging a prominent businessman was involved in criminal activity.</p>
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<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Maria Ressa’s case is important not only because a government used a crime statute to intimidate and lock up a journalist for what should have been treated as a civil dispute, but because of what it says about the way governments are increasingly using the “rule of law” to silence the legitimate work of journalists. </p>
<p>“As a journalist, I know firsthand how the law is being weaponised against perceived critics,” Ressa <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/rapplers-maria-ressa-duterte-government-weaponizing-information-and-law/a-47546367">told CNN</a>.</p>
<p>“I’m not a critic,” she continued. “I’m a journalist and I’m doing my job, holding the government to account.”</p>
<p>Ressa is one of the world’s most decorated reporters. A former CNN correspondent, she set up the news website <a href="https://www.rappler.com/">Rappler.com</a> early in 2012 with a group of colleagues. Since then, it has won numerous awards and become one of the most respected news organisations in the Philippines, fearlessly covering the Duterte government and the consequences of its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/19/dutertes-philippines-drug-war-death-toll-rises-above-5000">war on drugs</a> that has claimed thousands of lives. </p>
<p>Last year, TIME Magazine named Ressa a <a href="http://time.com/person-of-the-year-2018-the-guardians/">“Person of the Year” </a> – among several journalists including the recently murdered Jamal Khashoggi – for her courageous defence of press freedom. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/four-journalists-one-newspaper-time-magazines-person-of-the-year-recognises-the-global-assault-on-journalism-108669">Four journalists, one newspaper: Time Magazine's Person of the Year recognises the global assault on journalism</a>
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<p>Rappler <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/6061-cj-using-suvs-of-controversial-businessmen">published the disputed story</a> in May 2012, <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/194279-ressa-santos-cyber-libel-complaint-keng">four months</a> <em>before</em> the government passed the cyber-libel law. (Under the Philippines’ constitution, <a href="http://saklawph.com/retroactivity/">no law can be retroactive</a>.) The law also requires complaints to be filed within a year of publication. </p>
<p>The NBI said Rappler had updated the story in 2014 (it corrected a spelling error), and argued that because the story was still online, the website was guilty of “<a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/222691-doj-to-indict-rappler-cyber-libel-despite-nbi-flip-flop">continuous publication</a>”. </p>
<p>The cyber-libel charge is the latest in a long string of legal attacks Rappler is fighting off. Ressa told CNN she is involved in no less than seven separate cases, including charges of violating laws that prohibit foreign ownership of media companies and tax evasion. </p>
<p>She vehemently denies all the allegations, and to date there has been no evidence to support them. Instead, the legal assault has widely been condemned as a blatant attack on press freedom.</p>
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<p>After the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – responsible for registering companies in the Philippines – warned it was <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/193687-rappler-registration-revoked">revoking Rappler’s license</a> to operate because of breaches of the ownership laws, Philippines Senator Risa Hontiveros <a href="https://twitter.com/risahontiveros/status/952802729331539968?lang=en">tweeted</a> this was “a move straight out of the dictator’s playbook. I urge the public and all media practitioners to defend press freedom and the right to speak truth to power.” </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/639759/sec-ruling-on-rappler-tantamount-to-killing-news-site-focap/story/">Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines</a> expressed “deep concern” over the SEC decision, saying it was “tantamount to killing the online news site”. And, the <a href="http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2018/01/16/media-groups-on-SEC-closure-order-rappler.html">Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines </a> said the decision </p>
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<p>will be remembered in Philippine press history infamy. It is the day that a government built on democratic principles struck a blow on one of the pillars of Asia’s most vibrant democracy.</p>
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<p>The SEC has allowed Rappler to continue operating while the case is pending, but the threat of closure remains.</p>
<p>In its defence, the country’s justice department <a href="http://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1061911">denied</a> it was an attack on press freedom, arguing free speech did not give licence to engage in libel. That is true of course, but the way the authorities in the Philippines have been twisting the law to suit a blatantly political purpose should be troubling to all of us.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/maria-ressa-journalists-need-protection-in-dutertes-philippines-but-we-must-also-heed-the-stories-they-tell-111936">Maria Ressa: journalists need protection in Duterte’s Philippines, but we must also heed the stories they tell</a>
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<h2>How governments silence journalists</h2>
<p>The Duterte administration isn’t the first to do this. It happened to my two colleagues and I in Egypt, where we were charged and convicted for terrorism offences after we spoke to the Muslim Brotherhood - the group who had six months earlier been ousted from power as the first legitimately elected government in Egypt’s history.</p>
<p>As responsible journalists, we had a duty to speak to all parties involved in the political crisis, and for doing our jobs, we were sentenced to seven years for “promoting terrorist ideology”. </p>
<p>Turkey is the world’s most prolific jailer of journalists, with <a href="https://cpj.org/data/imprisoned/2018/?status=Imprisoned&start_year=2018&end_year=2018&group_by=location">68 in prison</a>. Yet all are there on terrorism charges.</p>
<p>And the problem is not limited to authoritarian regimes. As much as former US President Barack Obama spoke out in our defence while we were imprisoned in Cairo, his administration used the <a href="https://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2014/jan/10/jake-tapper/cnns-tapper-obama-has-used-espionage-act-more-all-/">Espionage Act</a> (passed in 1917 to deal with foreign spies) more than all his predecessors combined. </p>
<p>The act was applied against government workers leaking information to the press. If the leaks exposed genuinely sensitive information, this would be understandable, but in almost every case it was to go after journalists or their sources revealing politically embarrassing stories.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/united-states-will-stay-on-the-greste-case-ambassador-says-28449">United States will stay on the Greste case, Ambassador says</a>
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<p>In Australia, a slew of laws have come in that, in their own way, choke off journalists’ ability to hold the government, courts and individuals to account. Whether it is the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-29/metadata-laws-need-reform:-expert/8482104">data retention law</a> that makes it almost impossible to protect sources, or the chronic <a href="https://pressfreedom.org.au/suppression-orders-5af921a8ae60">overuse of suppression orders</a> that restrict journalists’ capacity to report on court cases, or <a href="https://pressfreedom.org.au/the-year-in-australian-media-law-9da4265c9269">defamation laws</a> weighted heavily in against the media, all make the our societies more opaque without providing protection for legitimate journalistic inquiry. </p>
<p>As Maria Ressa said <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/rapplers-maria-ressa-duterte-government-weaponizing-information-and-law/a-47546367">after she was released on bail</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Press freedom is not just about journalists. This is certainly not just about me or Rappler. Press freedom is the foundation of every Filipino’s right to the truth. We will keep fighting. We will hold the line. This has become more important than ever.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112056/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Greste is UNESCO Chair in Journalism and Communications at the University of Queensland. He is also a founding member and spokesman for the Alliance for Journalists Freedom.</span></em></p>Maria Ressa’s case is important because of what it says about the way governments are increasingly using the “rule of law” to silence the legitimate work of journalists.Peter Greste, Professor of Journalism and Communications, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1119362019-02-19T10:55:16Z2019-02-19T10:55:16ZMaria Ressa: journalists need protection in Duterte’s Philippines, but we must also heed the stories they tell<p>There has rightly been plenty of <a href="https://cpj.org/2019/02/cpj-condemns-arrest-of-rapplers-maria-ressa-on-cyb.php">condemnation</a> for the arrest of journalist Maria Ressa in the Philippines on February 13. Her <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47225217">news organisation, Rappler</a> – which has been critical of the government – has been targeted and maligned for at least a year by an authoritarian but sensitive regime up to its neck in <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/09/28/philippines-duterte-confesses-drug-war-slaughter">human rights violations</a>.</p>
<p>While Ressa’s arrest (and overnight detention) and the harassment of Rappler staff are deplorable, they are also sadly predictable. The time to worry about media suppression was a year ago, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/philippines-dictator-duterte-turns-on-the-media-that-helped-elect-him-90149">I warned on this platform</a>. The Philippines’ steady descent into despotism under president Rodrigo Duterte means the world’s focus needs to be on those <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/28/duterte-confesses-my-only-sin-is-the-extrajudicial-killings">being killed</a> – and who don’t garner the same amount of column inches of solidarity.</p>
<p>Understandably, nothing rallies the press like an attack on one of their own, especially a feted international star such as Ressa. Vociferous <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/223452-un-special-rapporteur-david-kaye-statement-maria-ressa-arrest-february-2019">solidarity</a> and protection is of course needed – especially when even such high-profile figures are attacked. But we need to take stock of what happens during these cycles of outrage – and question just how productive they are. </p>
<p>Duterte’s supporters wasted no time in condemning the criticisms. Duterte is winning a culture war against anything even remotely cast as “Western liberalism” – and the media’s attempts to defend Ressa were quickly drowned out by <a href="https://politics.com.ph/level-up-dds-trolls-use-ptv-4-facebook-account-to-praise-duterte/">hardline pro-Duterte trolls</a>. The media’s protests risk being confined to echo chambers populated by those who don’t need any convincing that journalists require protection. </p>
<h2>Media influence</h2>
<p>Research shows that newspaper opinion columns and editorials still have “a lasting effect on people’s views regardless of their <a href="https://news.yale.edu/2018/04/24/study-shows-newspaper-op-eds-change-minds">political affiliation or their initial stance on an issue</a>”. Which is, of course, why both authoritarian and liberal politicians alike combat their influence in their own way. But in the Philippines in 2019, this cycle needs to be broken so that the media can find some political power in the country as the fourth estate.</p>
<p>Solidarity alone is not enough to reform as formidable and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/28/duterte-confesses-my-only-sin-is-the-extrajudicial-killings">murderous a regime</a> as Duterte’s. Solidarity is a zero-sum game in 21st-century life. Our capacity for clicktivism is now more global and inclusive, but diluted exactly because of the breadth and depth of the countless issues appearing in our news feeds. </p>
<p>Journalists are under fire globally – as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/03/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-nofilter-president-no-joke-journalists-women">I have written about previously</a>. But it is their stories that are most important. As <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/14/asia/maria-ressa-rappler-posts-bail-intl/index.html">Ressa herself said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Press freedom is not just about journalists, right? It’s not just about us, it’s not just about me, it’s not just about Rappler. Press freedom is … the foundation of every single right of every single Filipino to the truth, so that we can hold the powerful to account.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Stories behind the story</h2>
<p>On January 30, peace advocate Randy Malayao was <a href="http://www.chrp.org.uk/2019/randy-malayao-chrp-ps/?fbclid=IwAR0zpQzdNYDMpN5mJz5gFJUSdQtx9OE7eSEpOmXR7qM1zh8mlV6V8sUwEWI">assassinated</a> on a public bus. In November 2018, Benjamin Ramos, a human rights lawyer who was helping a client free of charge, was <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/philippines-human-rights-lawyer-shot-dead-181130130409855.html">killed</a> by a motorcycle assassin, one of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/philippines-human-rights-lawyer-shot-dead-negros-island-181107072451909.html">dozens</a> in his profession killed since Duterte was elected. <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/iq/214987-list-massacres-incidents-of-violence-against-farmers-philippines">Farmers</a> and <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/16/17/lake-sebu-lumad-massacre-followed-visit-of-barangay-captain">indigenous</a> rights workers are also being killed without accountability. The scale of this political violence is difficult to comprehend and yet you will struggle to read about any of it outside of the Philippines. Concentrated international pressure is desperately needed. </p>
<p>The UK foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt made his first meaningful comment regarding the Philippines to say he was “<a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/223560-uk-statement-maria-ressa-arrest-february-2019?fbclid=IwAR20OkvZ6ZI8YmGiunjLsEdpb0foRY8rwbxMmBqoKYvtbgbJNOoHMn5Cn3E">deeply concerned</a>” about Ressa’s detention in a tweet referencing an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/13/the-guardian-view-on-media-freedom-it-must-be-defended">editorial</a> in The Guardian condemning her treatment. But without further action, this feels like too little, too late. </p>
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<p>“<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/14/asia/maria-ressa-rappler-posts-bail-intl/index.html">Weaponising the law</a>”, as Ressa claims, is not uncommon in democracies where the primary tool of the state is the rule of law. More acutely, Duterte is brazenly and somewhat successfully politicising the rule of law. Rappler’s supporters – and those who side with the country’s few brave opposition figures – are trapped in a parallel discourse from Duterte’s supporters and the two sides talk past one another rather than to one another. This leaves many ordinary Filipinos lost in a political no man’s land, isolated from and ignored by both camps.</p>
<p>Add to this the <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/215702-militarization-government-correct-duterte">militarisation</a> of Filipino society – at first through the murderous “war on drugs” and continued through the application of martial law in the south of the country – and it is a toxic mix. Violence is this regime’s default language, making the world numb with its drip feed of daily death and destruction. By doing away with his critics and platforms of dissent, Duterte is shaping the nation in his own <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/09/kill-list-phillipines-duterte-mass-murder-china-united-states-rivalry-war-on-drugs">horrific image</a>. </p>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>Duterte appreciates Rappler’s power more than most. It brought Filipino politics “online” and modernised political coverage, amplifying it through social media. Duterte supporters ran away with this premise towards the end of the election and have never looked back. Duterte has no apprehension in making Ressa into an emblem for the “liberal elite” – his brand of politics needs antagonists. Ressa, a powerful and confident woman, internationally minded, represents all his enemies – notably the vice president, Leni Robredo, who has <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/223438-robredo-otso-diretso-statements-arrest-maria-ressa-february-2019">denounced Ressa’s arrest</a>, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/07/rodrigo-duterte-strong-filipinas-philippines-cory-aquino-gloria-arroyo">senator Leila de Lima</a>, who has been jail for almost two years on trumped-up charges.</p>
<p>Duterte has politicised every element of Filipino life and is now cashing in, laying the ground for an even more authoritarian future. One which may well have his daughter Sara – or one of his various acolytes – as <a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/02/17/1894372/sara-duterte-could-be-next-president-after-rody">the next president</a>. We must seek better protection for journalists around the world – that should go without saying. But we must also listen to and, crucially, act on the stories that journalists such as Ressa are telling.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111936/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The arrest of a high-profile journalist in the Philippines has been rightly condemned. But the abuses she has been reporting continue daily.Tom Smith, Principal Lecturer in International Relations, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1083852018-12-20T07:58:51Z2018-12-20T07:58:51ZDuterte: Philippines’ brutal president must be condemned, but the West is guilty of double standards<p>Not since the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/07/10bn-dollar-question-marcos-millions-nick-davies">grim Marcos era</a> have Western commentators been so interested in the Philippines. Their focus is the country’s brutal and boorish president, Rodrigo Duterte, whose gruesome anti-drug campaign – death toll: <a href="http://www.atimes.com/dutertes-highly-selective-respect-for-human-rights/">20,000+</a> so far – should be condemned by any rational, humane person.</p>
<p>But some of these Western critics ignore or understate the role of Western policy in helping to create the conditions that birthed “Dutertismo”. They have also simplified Duterte’s erratic policy gestures and not held the Western powers to the same moral standards they expect of his regime. </p>
<p>In his book <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?redir_esc=y&id=yK5cDwAAQBAJ&q=poverty#v=snippet&q=poverty&f=false">Duterte Harry</a>, Jonathan Miller acknowledges that poverty and inequality contributed to the popular disaffection that won Duterte the 2016 election. But Miller’s one-sided view that most Filipinos are “pro-American” and his preference for a “global trade” system that disproportionately <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/may/18/how-to-stop-the-global-inequality-machine">benefits</a> Western economies, may explain why Miller does not address a key material cause of Dutertismo.</p>
<p>As Walden Bello asserts in his foreword to my book <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Realm-Punisher-Travels-Dutertes-Philippines/dp/1909930725/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1544975443&sr=8-1&keywords=realm+of+the+punisher">The Realm of the Punisher</a>, the US-dominated World Bank and IMF plunged the Philippines in the 1980s and 1990s into extreme debt and “massive poverty” by imposing on the country neoliberal trade, industry, land and spending reforms. </p>
<p>Over subsequent decades, this “neoliberal disarmament” caused the Philippines to lag behind most of its neighbours in terms of poverty reduction and annual average growth rate. The mushrooming debt burden resulted in acute under-investment in infrastructure and human services. <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/05/philippines-duterte-populism-marcos-neoliberalism">Alienated</a> from this political order, millions of Filipinos voted for Duterte’s problematic populism. </p>
<h2>US imperialism</h2>
<p>While the Financial Times’ <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/def867ce-8aca-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1">Michael Peel suggests</a> that another reason for Duterte’s ascent was his “mining of a seam of anti-US sentiment”, Peel only briefly – and uncritically – mentions acts of American imperialism. By contrast, Neferti X.M. Tadiar and Dylan Rodriguez are more emphatic about how a century of US state violence, exploitation and “<a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=ERde5HJQo0cC&printsec=frontcover&dq=suspended+apocalypse&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiuw5ib16TfAhWdSBUIHZFtBBEQ6AEIKDAA#v=snippet&q=%22white%20supremacy%22&f=false">global white supremacy</a>” has shaped modern Philippine attitudes. </p>
<p>In the Filipino-American War (1899-1902), which killed up to <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=wlqHDAAAQBAJ&pg=PA4&lpg=PA4&dq=philippine-american+war+killed+up+to+1.4+million&source=bl&ots=Nj9Wbn5nPd&sig=xQIcxhZbxr2uiE4oMjmfaARa8Wc&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjU853D36TfAhUGJVAKHX7TCqoQ6AEwEXoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=philippine-american%20war%20killed%20up%20to%201.4%20million&f=false">1.4m</a> people, the US first used tactics such as waterboarding captives and murdering civilians under the pretext of “<a href="https://conservancy.umn.edu/handle/11299/162537">humanitarian intervention</a>”.</p>
<p>After World War II, Washington then sponsored successive Philippine tyrants – Marcos included – who jailed, tortured and liquidated opponents. Until the 1990s, there were regular <a href="https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/edsa/the-ph-protest/">protests</a> against US troops <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/28/world/philippines-orders-us-to-leave-strategic-navy-base-at-subic-bay.html">stationed</a> in the Philippines. The US’s profiting from Philippine migrant labour has also long been <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2979/gso.2009.3.2.99?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">damaging</a> to national prosperity and social cohesion.</p>
<p>A concomitant of such indifference to American abuses is anxiety about the Philippines “<a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2017/02/23/the-philippines-pivots-to-china">pivoting</a>” towards other powers. The Guardian’s Tom Smith laments that Duterte’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/07/duterte-anti-us-philippines-isolationist-foreign-policy-insult-barack-obama-china">closer ties</a> with China constitute a “surrender of the US alliance … [not] in the better interests of the Filipino people”.</p>
<p>But the reality is more complex. Although it is true that Manila and Beijing are together <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/20/asia/xi-duterte-china-philippines-intl/index.html">exploring</a> energy reserves, and Chinese investment in the Philippines has <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/myth-busting-chinese-fdi-in-the-philippines/">surged</a> since 2016, the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/president-duterte-says-trump-good-friend-apologizes-calling-obama-son-whore-1101896">Trump-loving</a> Duterte isn’t as anti-American as his spiel implies. The US remains the Philippines’ second <a href="http://www.worldstopexports.com/philippines-top-import-partners/">trading partner</a> with exports to the US <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/PHL/Year/2016/Summarytext">rising</a> on his watch. Military activities between the two states are also <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2018/09/30/us-philippines-increase-number-of-joint-military-activities/">expanding</a> and Duterte has permitted the building of new American military facilities in the Philippines. </p>
<p>At any rate, Duterte is <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Meet-new-boss-Duterte-same-as-the-old-boss">not the first</a> Philippine leader to maintain relations with the US while making overtures to China. Marcos did so in 1967 and, in 1997, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo allowed a Chinese navy ship to enter Manila.</p>
<p>Supposing Western fears about a realignment with Beijing are well-founded, they are nonetheless driven by a hypocritical assumption that China is a unique threat to Asian peace. Although Beijing’s construction of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/06/photos-beijings-militarisation-south-china-sea-philippines">military facilities</a> in the South China Sea is provocative, it is minor compared to the Pacific <a href="https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/current-affairs/the-coming-war-on-china-john-pilger-asks-is-beijing-really-the-enemy/news-story/e41a48c5738926be5c4568c2087d36e3">cordon</a> of 400 American bases, some equipped with nuclear missiles.</p>
<p>Unlike China, US armed forces are operating in <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/a-new-map-shows-the-alarming-spread-of-the-us-war-on-terror/">17 Asian countries</a> including the Philippines, the official justification being the “War on Terror”. But Tadiar perceives the <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=sZUv4ogCCRkC&pg=PA70&lpg=PA70&dq=tadiar+%22global+martial+law%22&source=bl&ots=rbUFVB34Aq&sig=V06eEUCSOzGlcja4quhz1-kKRTc&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjj9fjtnpjfAhXB26QKHcEgDH8Q6AEwAHoECAAQAQ#v=onepage&q=tadiar%20%22global%20martial%20law%22&f=false">real agenda</a> to be the “imposition of global martial law” to guarantee the obedience of “crony states” like the Philippines to “US hegemony”. </p>
<h2>Hypocrisy</h2>
<p>Hypocrisy also distorts the moral calculus these Western writers apply to Duterte, encapsulated in Noam <a href="https://chomsky.info/200405__/">Chomsky’s aphorism</a>: “When they do it, it’s a crime. When we do it, it’s not.” Smith’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/10/donald-trump-rodrigo-duterte-philippines">claim</a> that Duterte is “more of a threat to the world” than Trump is therefore dubious.</p>
<p>While Duterte has slaughtered 20,000 Filipinos, he is incapable of attacking people beyond his own borders, whereas US wars have killed up to <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/unworthy-victims-western-wars-have-killed-four-million-muslims-1990-39149394">4m</a> in the Middle East alone since 1990.</p>
<p>Duterte’s surly jibes about the <a href="https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/03/21/1799010/duterte-no-joint-expeditions-us-during-my-time">Iraq debacle</a> and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/philippine-president-duterte-blasts-u-s-syria-police-shootings-threatens-n635511">US police</a> shootings of African-Americans have rightly been called out as cynical “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/us-philippines-duterte/536247/">whataboutism</a>” designed to rebuff scrutiny of his own atrocities. But that there is truth to these allegations hamstrings the West’s attempt to take the moral high ground over him.</p>
<p>A practical outcome of this could be to undermine efforts to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/the-international-criminal-court-moved-to-investigate-duterte-now-he-wants-out/2018/03/14/eccb2b44-2753-11e8-ab19-06a445a08c94_story.html?utm_term=.cad4bdc6610a">arraign Duterte</a> at the International Criminal Court, which UN delegates have <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2016/ga11784.doc.htm">censured</a> for its double standards regarding First and Third World state crimes.</p>
<p>For the practical and ethical goal of world peace and human rights, we must be consistent in opposing all orchestrated violence, whether committed, enabled or supported by the elites of Western or non-Western nations. Duterte must be brought to justice – as should all other offenders, wherever they are.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108385/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Sykes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Duterte has slaughtered 20,000 Filipinos, he is incapable of attacking people beyond his own borders, whereas US wars have killed up to 4m in the Middle East alone since 1990.Tom Sykes, Senior Lecturer (Creative Writing), University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/923322018-02-25T21:51:57Z2018-02-25T21:51:57ZWhy did it take so long for Canada to kill the Philippines helicopter sale?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207743/original/file-20180224-108116-q5fg1j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shakes hands with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Honeylet Avancena as he arrives at the 50th Anniversary celebration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Manila in November 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canadian trade minister Francois-Philippe Champagne recently announced the cancellation of a <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-appoint-new-chair-of-crown-corporation-that-facilitated-helicopter-deal-with-philippines/article37972729/">$300 million trade deal</a> to transport 16 helicopters to the Philippines in early 2019. </p>
<p>The cancellation was spurred by a Canadian government review that found the helicopters were likely <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/195527-canada-review-helicopter-deal-philippines">to be used for anti-terrorism</a> and internal security purposes and not for humanitarian missions as agreed upon. Canada had previously sold eight Bell helicopters to <a href="http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/966666/ph-inks-p12-b-contract-for-16-bell-choppers">to the Philippines in 2015.</a> </p>
<p>But it wasn’t Canada that finally scrubbed the deal. Enraged by the delay and review of the sale, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/philippines-president-kills-controversial-helicopter-deal-with-canada-1.3796452">ordered the cancellation</a>.</p>
<p>The unexpected loss of 16 helicopters presents a temporary roadblock for the Philippines as it fights the violent insurgency in Marawi and a deadly “war on drugs.”</p>
<p>It means the Philippines must now scramble to find alternative sources to boost its capacity to tackle mounting internal security problems.</p>
<h2>The Marawi insurgency</h2>
<p>Since May 2017, the city of Marawi on the southern island of Mindanao has <a href="http://time.com/marawi-philippines-isis/">become a battlefield </a> as the Philippine military fights against Islamic State militants consisting of Abu Sayyaf, a jihadist militant group, and Maute Group, a local violent mafia group. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207742/original/file-20180224-108134-1p6qon4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207742/original/file-20180224-108134-1p6qon4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207742/original/file-20180224-108134-1p6qon4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207742/original/file-20180224-108134-1p6qon4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207742/original/file-20180224-108134-1p6qon4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207742/original/file-20180224-108134-1p6qon4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207742/original/file-20180224-108134-1p6qon4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Troops patrol the decimated streets of Marawi city in southern Philippines in October after months of the siege by pro-Islamic State group militants.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Bullit Marquez, File)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An attempt by the Philippine military to capture the former Abu Sayyaf leader, <a href="http://time.com/marawi-philippines-isis/">Isnilon Hapilon</a>, the head of a southern militia who has pledged loyalty to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has led to a bloody five-month struggle. More than <a href="https://asiapacificreport.nz/2017/10/23/urban-battle-for-marawi-finally-over-1000-dead-says-philippines/">1,000 people have been killed </a> and nearly 2,000 hostages rescued from militants. </p>
<p>Though active warfare has subsided, Mindanao remains under martial law. It’s been extended for another year amid controversy over <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/world/asia/philippines-martial-law-duterte.html">the potential violation</a> of the Filipino 1987 Constitution. </p>
<p>Currently, Marawi lies in ruins and about 200,000 of the city’s people <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21736571-half-population-city-marawi-still-living-tents-and-sheds-philippines">have been displaced</a> by the conflict.</p>
<h2>War on drugs</h2>
<p>Aside from fighting insurgents, Duterte is also notorious for using the war on drugs to promote peace and order. Since assuming the presidency in June 2016, Duterte has mobilized the Filipino drug enforcement agency as well as police forces to eliminate all drug users and small-time peddlers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/02/08/world-must-pressure-philippines-drug-war-accountability">Nearly 12,000</a> deaths are estimated to have occurred in the last 19 months. Duterte’s indiscriminate, extra-judicial killings and use of mercenaries in the anti-drug operations have faced condemnation from human rights organizations and countries that include Canada.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207745/original/file-20180224-108122-1kvep2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207745/original/file-20180224-108122-1kvep2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207745/original/file-20180224-108122-1kvep2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207745/original/file-20180224-108122-1kvep2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207745/original/file-20180224-108122-1kvep2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207745/original/file-20180224-108122-1kvep2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207745/original/file-20180224-108122-1kvep2e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters carry a banner as they march for a rally in Manila in July 2017 to denounce the killing of thousands of victims in the so-called war on drugs of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-summit/duterte-berates-canadas-trudeau-at-end-of-philippines-summit-idUSKBN1DE0JE">public criticism</a> of Duterte’s war on drugs during the ASEAN summit in November 2017, the Canadian Commercial Corporation, a federal agency, was quietly negotiating arms deal with the Philippines. The Liberal government’s eagerness <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-checkered-history-of-arms-sales-to-human-rights-violators-91559">to negotiate arms sales with countries with poor human rights records</a> through the Canadian Commercial Corporation raises serious ethical questions. </p>
<p>After the Philippines military revealed the purchase, there were several missteps by Minister Champagne that showed inconsistency in the government’s position.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207741/original/file-20180224-108116-ay9npz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207741/original/file-20180224-108116-ay9npz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207741/original/file-20180224-108116-ay9npz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207741/original/file-20180224-108116-ay9npz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207741/original/file-20180224-108116-ay9npz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207741/original/file-20180224-108116-ay9npz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207741/original/file-20180224-108116-ay9npz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Minister of International Trade Francois-Philippe Champagne rises during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Feb. 8, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>First, he defended the $300-million helicopter deal and insisted that the Montreal-built choppers were for search-and-rescue missions and disaster relief in the Philippines. </p>
<p>Later, he said the initial contract was signed under the auspices of a previous agreement and that neither <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/philippines-to-cancel-helicopter-deal-with-canada-duterte-says/article37917169/">he nor any other ministers were asked to sign off on it</a>. He also said that the plan was to move forward with the trade deal signed by the previous Conservative government in 2012 on the basis that the helicopters were to be used for <a href="http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/feds-order-review-of-controversial-helicopter-deal-with-the-philippines">non-combative purposes</a>.</p>
<p>But the timing of Trudeau’s public criticism of Duterte’s extra-juridical killings in <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/3859723/rodrigo-duterte-justin-trudeau-human-rights-concerns/">November 2017</a> at a Manila summit and the re-signing of the helicopter deal with the Philippines in <a href="http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/feds-order-review-of-controversial-helicopter-deal-with-the-philippines">December 2017</a> shows a clear disjuncture in public speech and arms trade policy.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207744/original/file-20180224-108122-1a5x7ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207744/original/file-20180224-108122-1a5x7ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207744/original/file-20180224-108122-1a5x7ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207744/original/file-20180224-108122-1a5x7ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207744/original/file-20180224-108122-1a5x7ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207744/original/file-20180224-108122-1a5x7ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207744/original/file-20180224-108122-1a5x7ha.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=585&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jacques St-Laurent, president of Bell Helicopter Textron Canada, stands in front of a Bell 412 helicopter at the company’s plant in Mirabel, Que. in May 2006.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(CP PHOTO/Ryan Remiorz)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It doesn’t take a security expert to point out that in the Philippines under Duterte’s leadership, the helicopters were likely to be used for <a href="https://news.mb.com.ph/2018/02/17/helicopters-for-our-modernizing-afp/">combat purposes</a>. There has been major news coverage of the Philippines’ bloody internal conflicts and extra-judicial killings. It would be naïve, if not disingenuous, for the Liberal government to defend its position by arguing that the helicopters would be used only for search-and-rescue and disaster relief.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/philippines-to-cancel-helicopter-deal-with-canada-duterte-says/article37917169/">Duterte said</a>: “And if I cannot use the gunships, the helicopters, then I might as well surrender this government to them.”</p>
<h2>No dent on Duterte’s popularity</h2>
<p>Duterte’s mass support hinges on his tough talk and open opposition of the entrenched elite in Manila. His decision to cancel the helicopter deal with a Western state such as Canada is likely to broaden his support base and fan rising nationalist and anti-elite sentiment in the country.</p>
<p>Duterte’s administration has pledged to invest <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-defence/philippines-signs-233-million-helicopter-deal-with-canada-to-fight-rebels-idUSKBN1FQ1GZ">PHP$125 billion</a> (CDN$3 billion) in the next five years to modernize its armed forces, especially equipment and armaments for internal security operations to defeat domestic threats as well protect its maritime borders. </p>
<p>Without Canada’s supplies, it is likely to turn to China and Russia for alternatives. Those countries, whose relations with the Philippines have vastly improved in recent months, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-summit-philippines-russia/well-buy-arms-from-russia-philippines-duterte-tells-putin-idUSKBN1DA1K7">have donated a total of 11,000 assault rifles and trucks</a>. </p>
<p>In fact, the Philippines government has begun aircraft negotiations <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/195840-philippines-military-bell-choppers-cancelled">with these countries</a> and it’s also acquiring three frigates from South Korea, air defence radars from Israel, and armoured vehicles, a long-range patrol aircraft and assault rifles and grenade launchers from Russia.</p>
<h2>Implications for Canada</h2>
<p>The cancellation of the controversial helicopter deal shows clear lapses in Trudeau’s administration.</p>
<p>The government has now ordered a shakeup of the Canadian Commercial Corporation, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-appoint-new-chair-of-crown-corporation-that-facilitated-helicopter-deal-with-philippines/article37972729/">appointed a new chair</a> to take over the Crown corporation and ordered it to become less reliant on selling arms. </p>
<p>A previous trade agreement made between Canada and the Philippines remains intact, with Canada still expected to transport a helicopter to the Philippines <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/195969-no-cancellation-pnp-bell-helicopter-contract">later this year</a>.</p>
<p>But it’s time for the Liberal government to walk the talk. If it plans to promote Canada as a global champion of human rights, it should stop supplying arms to countries with questionable human rights and practices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92332/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Netina Tan receives funding from SSHRC and IDRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marvin Mercado does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Canadian deal to sell helicopters to the Philippines has finally been killed. What took so long, and why was it the Philippines, not Canada, that ultimately scrubbed the deal?Netina Tan, Associate Professor, McMaster UniversityMarvin Mercado, Graduate Student, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/915592018-02-13T22:11:49Z2018-02-13T22:11:49ZCanada’s checkered history of arms sales to human rights violators<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205837/original/file-20180211-51703-hlh45x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The controversial $12-billion sale of light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia has embroiled Justin Trudeau’s government in controversy. The vehicle in question is shown here at a news conference at a General Dynamics facility in London, Ont., in 2012. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Mark Spowart</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Canadian government has been taking flak lately for its arms sales. </p>
<p>Helicopters <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canada-helicopters-philippines-military-attack-1.4527456">destined for the Philippines</a> could be used for internal security in President Rodrigo Duterte’s harsh crackdowns, critics charge. </p>
<p>The $12-billion sale of light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia has also embroiled Justin Trudeau’s government in controversy.</p>
<p>In response, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland <a href="http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2018/02/09/canada-arms-export-rules-saudi-arms-deal-freeland/">has pledged to review both deals</a>, suggesting Canada is toughening up arms sales restrictions based on human rights grounds. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205841/original/file-20180211-51706-bj4mrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205841/original/file-20180211-51706-bj4mrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205841/original/file-20180211-51706-bj4mrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205841/original/file-20180211-51706-bj4mrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205841/original/file-20180211-51706-bj4mrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205841/original/file-20180211-51706-bj4mrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205841/original/file-20180211-51706-bj4mrf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=534&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland speaks to MPs on Parliament Hill in February 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But how did Canada get into the international arms trade, anyway? </p>
<p>A look at the history of how Canada started selling weapons overseas following the Second World War reveals that, contrary to Freeland’s implication, Canada actually used to be much more restrictive on arms sales than it is today.</p>
<p>Canada has not made human rights any more central to its arms export policy than it was in the 1940s — in fact, it’s reduced oversight and the consideration of human rights issues when it comes to selling arms. </p>
<p>“Canada’s export controls are among the most rigorous in the world,” <a href="http://www.international.gc.ca/controls-controles/report-rapports/mil-2016.aspx?lang=eng">the government states</a>. </p>
<p>It “strives to ensure that, among other policy goals, Canadian exports are not prejudicial to peace, security or stability in any region of the world or within any country.” In the post-Second World War period, Canada did not exactly “strive to ensure” these things — but it did say no when there was a risk of any of them happening.</p>
<h2>How Canada got into the arms trade</h2>
<p>Indeed, Canada entered the arms trade cautiously and carefully. After the Second World War, Ottawa was willing to pass surplus military equipment in Europe to allied governments. </p>
<p>But sales to less reliable countries, and those who might actually use the weapons, always required approval by the full cabinet. Prime Minister Mackenzie King <a href="http://www.bac-lac.gc.ca/eng/discover/politics-government/cabinet-conclusions/Pages/item.aspx?IdNumber=6285">noted</a> that “great care should be taken with respect to all sales of weapons and supplies of war to foreign governments.” </p>
<p>The first test came in 1946, when cabinet agreed to sell six million 30-calibre cartridges and four million magazines to the Dutch army just as it was about to embark on a <a href="https://creators.vice.com/en_us/article/53wqxz/unreleased-indonesian-national-revolution-pics">colonial war in Indonesia</a>. But when the Dutch asked for 10,000 Sten machine guns for use in Indonesia, Canadian officials turned them down.</p>
<p>“We have no reason to believe that Canadian public opinion would support such a sale, nor would it be in the Canadian interest to make the sale,” according to one document from the day, now filed at <a href="http://www.bac-lac.gc.ca/eng/Pages/home.aspx">Library and Archives Canada</a>. </p>
<p>Why? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205839/original/file-20180211-51713-70q4yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205839/original/file-20180211-51713-70q4yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205839/original/file-20180211-51713-70q4yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205839/original/file-20180211-51713-70q4yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205839/original/file-20180211-51713-70q4yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205839/original/file-20180211-51713-70q4yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205839/original/file-20180211-51713-70q4yd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Dutch soldier is seen here questioning Indonesian villagers in this undated photo taken some time between 1945 and 1950.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Creative Commons/Tropenmuseum)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The guns would probably be employed in the “‘pacification’ of the native population,” exposing the government to “severe domestic and international criticism for supplying these arms” and potentially “prejudic(ing) for a long time our commercial relations with the Indonesians.”</p>
<p>Any further talk of helping the Netherlands — a close Canadian ally — was blocked by the Department of External Affairs</p>
<h2>No to China</h2>
<p>Cabinet did get to decide on a proposal in 1946 to sell warships to China, then a pro-American regime desperately fighting off the advances of Mao Zedong’s Chinese communists.</p>
<p>The Canadian government certainly sympathized with the Chinese Republicans. And the sale of 10 or 11 surplus Canadian frigates would have netted Canada some $2 million — the equivalent of $27 million in today’s money. Yet cabinet <a href="http://www.bac-lac.gc.ca/eng/discover/politics-government/cabinet-conclusions/Pages/item.aspx?IdNumber=7069">blocked the sale</a> on the grounds that the ships “might be used in civil warfare.” </p>
<p>The same logic underpinned a Canadian decision to <a href="http://www.bac-lac.gc.ca/eng/discover/politics-government/cabinet-conclusions/Pages/item.aspx?IdNumber=8573">bar all military exports to Chinese Republicans</a> in 1947. </p>
<p>In both cases, the logic was clear: Canada should sell arms only to close allies, and if there was any likelihood of use against civilians, no sale should be made.</p>
<h2>Arming a dictatorship: Indonesia</h2>
<p>By the 1970s, however, Canada had thrown early caution to the winds, becoming a keen seeker of arms exports. A <a href="http://lactualite.com/societe/2017/02/05/marchandises-militaires-la-grande-hypocrisie-canadienne/">recent analysis</a> shows that Canada supplied $5.8 billion worth of arms over the past 25 years to countries classed as “dictatorships” by the human rights group Freedom House. </p>
<p>The example of arms sales to Indonesia curiously shows both a greater Canadian willingness to sell and the limits to that willingness.</p>
<p>Indonesia notoriously <a href="https://www.unsw.adfa.edu.au/school-of-humanities-and-social-sciences/timor-companion/invasion">invaded</a> the former Portuguese colony of East Timor in 1975, with more than <a href="https://www.ictj.org/news/10-years-cavr-report-timor-leste-truth">100,000</a> Timorese perishing under the subsequent military occupation. From 1975 to 1991, Canada nonetheless <a href="http://oceanpark.com/notes/books/genocide_in_paradise/genocide_13.htm">was willing to sell arms</a> to Indonesia. </p>
<p>Writing in the 1980s, Timorese leader <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17422094">José Ramos Horta</a> described Canadian “double standards” in <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=WsFVXrVEEekC&pg=PA143&lpg=PA143&dq=funu+canada&source=bl&ots=EnmNlYADLt&sig=zHs9BsZItC39WrWRRCrplqKEL-U&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjHz8DYrJ_ZAhXwUN8KHSAjCGAQ6AEILzAC#v=onepage&q&f=false">scathing terms</a>: “These weapons play an important role in the war in East Timor. But how does the Canadian government explain the weapons exports to Indonesia if Canadian law states that export permits should be issued only for ‘non-conflict’ areas? Simply by asserting that there is no armed conflict in East Timor – knowing that to be a lie.”</p>
<p>Yet there were limits. </p>
<p>In 1991, a massacre in East Timor prompted Barbara McDougall, foreign minister in Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservative government, <a href="http://stopwapenhandel.org/sites/stopwapenhandel.org/files/imported/publicaties/boekenbrochures/Indonesia_0.pdf">to impose an arms embargo.</a></p>
<p>There was no suggestion that Canadian-made arms had been used in the massacre, but McDougall was taking no chances. </p>
<p>Arms sales to Indonesia resumed as <a href="https://prism.ucalgary.ca/bitstream/handle/1880/51199/From_Kinshasa_to_Kandahar_2016_chapter04.pdf?sequence=6">Jean Chrétien’s government embraced Indonesia</a>, but there was increasing dissent within the Department of Foreign Affairs about it.</p>
<p>“Any question of military sales to Indonesia, by definition, is a sensitive issue,” one divisional director wrote. After all, he noted acidly, “the Indonesian army is still killing people in East Timor.” </p>
<p>In September 1999, after extensive public pressure, foreign minister Lloyd Axworthy imposed an arms embargo as <a href="http://www.history.ucla.edu/sites/default/files/u184/robinson/robinson_east_timor_1999_english.pdf">pro-Indonesia militia groups</a> killed, forcibly relocated and terrorized the Timorese population. No evidence was required that Canadian-supplied weapons were being used against civilians. The government simply acted. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205840/original/file-20180211-51700-5cupcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/205840/original/file-20180211-51700-5cupcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205840/original/file-20180211-51700-5cupcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205840/original/file-20180211-51700-5cupcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205840/original/file-20180211-51700-5cupcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205840/original/file-20180211-51700-5cupcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/205840/original/file-20180211-51700-5cupcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=623&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lloyd Axworthy, second from left, is seen here with othelink text r foreign ministers at an emergency ministerial meeting on the East Timor crisis in Auckland, N.Z., in 1999.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Greg Baker)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bending away from justice</h2>
<p>Some 80 years ago, British historian Herbert Butterfield <a href="http://www.eliohs.unifi.it/testi/900/butterfield/preface.html">criticized those who rewrite the past</a> in order “to produce a story which is the ratification if not the glorification of the present.”</p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.hist.cam.ac.uk/prospective-undergrads/virtual-classroom/secondary-source-exercises/sources-whig">“Whiggish” view of history</a> insists that things get better over time, in a progressive arc leading to general improvement. </p>
<p>It’s this sense that Chrystia Freeland invokes when she <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-arms/canada-says-will-clamp-down-on-arms-exports-amid-rights-concerns-idUSKBN1FS3E7">promises</a> to ban the sale of a weapon “if there were a substantial risk that it could be used to commit human rights violations” — and describes that as progress. </p>
<p>In actual fact, if previous debates on arms sales are anything to go by, Canada is less vigilant on human rights than it was in 1946, or even in 1999. It has some way to go before it approaches the standards that once prevailed. </p>
<p>The arc of Canadian arms sales is long, but it seems to bend away from, not towards, human rights.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Webster receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council and Canada Foundation for Innovation.</span></em></p>Canada used to be more careful about selling arms to countries that practised human rights violations. What happened?David Webster, Associate Professor of History, Bishop's UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/901492018-01-16T13:34:21Z2018-01-16T13:34:21ZPhilippines’ dictator Duterte turns on the media that helped elect him<p>Journalism in the Philippines has long been a <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/04/asia/philippines-deadly-for-journalists/index.html">dangerous trade</a>, one that carries a very real risk of murder with little likelihood of accountability. Yet it is vitally important that Filipinos have a robust critical press to question a government up to its neck in <a href="https://theconversation.com/rodrigo-dutertes-first-year-a-human-rights-disaster-the-world-prefers-to-ignore-80442">human rights abuses</a>. That’s why many are despairing at the news that the authoritarian administration of President Rodrigo Duterte is trying to ban a leading critical outlet, <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/193725-amnesty-international-rappler-sec-statement">Rappler</a>.</p>
<p>Rappler is a social media-driven digital news platform. Initially based on Facebook, it was founded in 2011 by author and journalist Maria Ressa, who now finds herself cast as an opposition figure – taking her place alongside other notable <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/07/rodrigo-duterte-strong-filipinas-philippines-cory-aquino-gloria-arroyo">female figures</a> standing up to Duterte. Many of them are being marginalised, silenced, or worse.</p>
<p>Duterte’s vice-president, Leni Robredo, is <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/172938-leni-robredo-evolves-duterte-first-year">effectively gagged</a> by her position in office, and Duterte’s plan to federalise the country’s political system <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/193612-leni-robredo-camp-abolish-ovp-federalism">would see her post abolished</a>. Senator <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38362274">Leila De Lima</a> is still in prison on trumped up charges after almost a year; the judicial process is moving <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/193021-de-lima-more-difficult-2018">at a glacial pace</a>.</p>
<p>By banning Rappler, Duterte is not just removing a key platform for dissent, but one of the vehicles that put him in office – effectively pulling up the ladder behind him. Rappler exposed how Duterte’s campaign and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-12-07/how-rodrigo-duterte-turned-facebook-into-a-weapon-with-a-little-help-from-facebook">administration</a> deployed an aggressive (often abusive) digital <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/148007-propaganda-war-weaponizing-internet">strategy</a>, using an <a href="http://beta.philstar.com/headlines/2017/07/24/1721044/duterte-camp-spent-200000-troll-army-oxford-study-finds">army of trolls</a> against anyone asking critical questions – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/03/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-nofilter-president-no-joke-journalists-women">myself included</a>. </p>
<p>But before he became a serious contender for the presidency, Duterte was all too happy to exploit both Rappler’s rapidly growing and politically engaged young audience and its dynamic platform to speak directly to people through their phones. His strategy provided plenty of video clips for social media, and left traditional outlets lagging behind.</p>
<h2>Riding the tiger</h2>
<p>Lessons can be learnt from Rappler’s story without doling out blame. It’s hard to assess just how much the site influenced Duterte’s victory, but the questions are awkward enough as it is. Did its journalists ask enough critical questions early on? Did they inadvertently help create this monster? And is digital media responsible for helping breed these leaders and agendas? </p>
<p>After his victory, Duterte initially continued to offer Rappler remarkable access and a stream of lurid quotes, successfully raising his and Rappler’s international profiles. Between repeatedly <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/189799-duterte-jokes-pope-francis-leila-de-lima-rosary">insulting the Pope</a> (this in a staunchly Catholic country) and former US president, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-president-barack-obama-son-of-a-bitch-a7226201.html">Barack Obama</a>, Duterte <a href="https://twitter.com/rapplerdotcom/status/735843622340300801">took two female journalists</a> (including Rappler’s Pia Ranada) on a “ride-along” through his home town of Davao, where they visited his “watering hole”. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"953089727237799936"}"></div></p>
<p>This was a man who has all but admitted to running <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/05/17/duterte-harry-has-been-dirty-long-time">death squads</a> while he was mayor, yet Rappler <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/politics/elections/2016/134743-transformation-rody-duterte-president">publicised</a> his “transformation”. Less than a week later, the other journalist on that assignment, GMA7’s Mariz Umali, was hardly shown much professional respect when Duterte <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/02/philippines-duterte-accused-of-disrespect-after-wolf-whistling-female-journalist">wolf-whistled her on live TV</a>. </p>
<p>It might seem harsh to look back on this tawdry backstory, especially given the country was enthralled by Duterte at the time. But Rappler’s is a cautionary tale. The Philippines needs its journalists to be sceptical and on constant guard. Media outlets who curry favour with leaders can expect no guarantee that those leaders won’t turn on them in the end.</p>
<h2>Dark times</h2>
<p>Rappler is just the most recent casualty in Filipino journalism. According to the the International Federation of Journalists, for a quarter of a decade now, only Iraq has been <a href="http://globalnation.inquirer.net/135916/ph-2nd-most-dangerous-country-for-journalists-in-past-25-years-ifj">a more dangerous beat</a>. But Duterte is waging a culture war on an already perilously weak fourth estate, mobilising sympathetic forces to frame events in his favour. Witness the viral <a href="http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/945007/philippine-news-updates-mocha-uson-sass-rogando-sasot-bbc-jover-laurio-pinoy-ako-blog">footage</a> of the BBC’s Jonathan Head being cornered by pro-Duterte blogger Sass Sasot, or the appointment of singer/blogger <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/investigative/185560-mocha-uson-posts-news">Mocha Uson</a> to the office of presidential communications. </p>
<p>While Ressa, Rappler’s CEO, is now pitched against Uson in a <a href="http://www.manilatimes.net/maria-hate-mocha/293147/">pantomime</a> tabloid spat, the country slides into authoritarian rule. The unpleasant odour of the Marcos dictatorship, whose legacy Duterte has <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/will-reburying-marcos-be-dutertes-downfall/">hardly shied away from</a>, is in the air once again.</p>
<p>Duterte has embarked on various ambitious plans to change the Philippines as he sees fit. He is determined to roll out a dangerous and poorly conceived plan to federalise the country and devolve power away from Manila. Known as #PHederalism, this plan risks legitimising local warlords and clan-based politics, with all the corruption and violence they entail. </p>
<p>Many Filipinos remember the <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/iq/189284-maguindanao-massacre-trial-updates">Maguindano massacre</a> before the 2010 elections, where 58 people – including 32 journalists – were hacked to death, allegedly by members of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11139653">Ampatuan clan</a>. The perpetrators used an industrial-sized excavator belonging to the provincial government to bury the victims in <a href="http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/706031/maguindanao-massacre-widows-cannot-forgive-ampatuan-sr">mass graves</a>. The chief suspect, <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/99713-maguindanao-massacre-suspect-andal-ampatuan-sr-dead">Andal Ampatuan Sr</a>, head of the notorious clan and elected governor of Maguindanao, died in custody in 2015; the trial of the rest of the clan has barely progressed in five years.</p>
<p>With Rappler muffled, who will be left to ask the tough questions about #PHederalism? Or about justice for those massacred at Maguindano? Or the victims of drug war and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/02/philippines-president-duterte-drugs-war-death-squads">Duterte’s notorious death squads</a>? Regardless of who’s asking them, those questions will have to be posed to Duterte’s spokesman, <a href="https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in-depth/133490-rodrigo-duterte-presidential-spokesperson-salvador-panelo">Salvador Panleo</a> – the Ampatuan clan’s former lawyer. As the Philippines’ authoritarian turn accelerates, the risks that come with dissent and scrutiny are becoming ever more dangerous.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rodrigo Duterte’s authoritarianism has progressed from death squads and martial law to cracking down on press freedom.Tom Smith, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/845102017-11-27T19:09:15Z2017-11-27T19:09:15ZHow Filipino artists are responding to President Duterte and the ‘War on Drugs’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195158/original/file-20171117-7536-1lm73xd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In This Here. Land, a performance by Filipino and Australian artists in Sydney, the audience is asked to participate in a recreation of one of the Philippines's drug killings. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jade Cadeliña</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Along one long wall on the side of Manila’s Baclaran church, visual artist Emil Yap has been working for two years on a mural that depicts the cosmology and history of the Philippines. </p>
<p>Yap collaborates with others on the mural, which uses different sculpture and mosaic techniques. Recently, he trained volunteers who were victims of President Rodrigo Duterte’s declared “War on Drugs” - which is estimated to have led to more than <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/thousands-demand-killings-duterte-drug-war-170821124440845.html">13,000</a> killings - to work on the mosaics for several months while seeking refuge in the church. </p>
<p>Yap is among a small but growing number of cultural producers whose work addresses the effects of Duterte’s presidency. Several of these artists seek to involve members of communities most affected by the upsurge in killings - which are mostly in low-income urban neighbourhoods. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196416/original/file-20171127-14028-u0jcsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196416/original/file-20171127-14028-u0jcsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196416/original/file-20171127-14028-u0jcsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196416/original/file-20171127-14028-u0jcsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196416/original/file-20171127-14028-u0jcsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196416/original/file-20171127-14028-u0jcsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196416/original/file-20171127-14028-u0jcsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196416/original/file-20171127-14028-u0jcsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alwin Reamillo places images of President Duterte on everyday objects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alwin Reamillo</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not far from Baclaran Church, at the Cultural Center of the Philippines, performance-maker JK Anicoche collaborated with young widows of the drug war to perform Zumba as part of a performance entitled <a href="http://teammag.ph/dance-demands-attention/">15 Minutes of Your Time</a>. A response to self-declared drug addicts across Manila being <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/06/world/asia/in-philippine-drug-war-little-help-for-those-who-surrender.html">made to participate in mass Zumba sessions </a>as part of their rehabilitation process, the dance-based exercise form now has a somewhat macabre presence in contemporary Philippine life. </p>
<p>Anicoche and Yap are part of an loose extended network of artists who have been working under the banner of the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/artistsresbak/">RESBAK</a> collective (Respond and Break the Silence Against the Killings). RESBAK members make zines, hold film screenings, and produce videos for circulation on social media as part of their diverse efforts to protest. </p>
<p>Their launch video in December 2016 played a famous Filipino Christmas song as a backdrop to protesters silently holding cardboard placards that call to mind the homemade signs <a href="http://opinion.inquirer.net/96101/the-story-behind-the-viral-photo">often left beside slain bodies</a>.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fartistsresbak%2Fvideos%2F664983860351129%2F&show_text=0&width=560" width="100%" height="315" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe>
<p>Cultural projects such as these can offer tools for violence-affected communities to work through their trauma. Among the victims most deeply impacted are children. The Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism has published a children’s book, <a href="https://pcijstoryproject.org/a-childrens-book-on-kian-delos-santos-a4c6d30ee0a7">Si Kian,</a> narrating the story of teenager Kian de los Santos, whose fatal shooting by police in August 2017 led to protests.</p>
<p>Journalist Kimberley de la Cruz, who had been covering the nightly killings for some months before meeting Kian’s family at his wake, collaborated with author Weng Cahiles and illustrator Aldy Aguirre to produce Si Kian within a matter of weeks. The illustrated book aims to provide a resource to teachers seeking resources for young students experiencing deaths like that of Kian’s within their neighbourhoods.</p>
<h2>Shifting alliances</h2>
<p>Like other Filipinos, artists are coming to terms with the tensions emerging between Duterte’s supporters and detractors. Some artists had been among those optimistic for change when President Duterte formed alliances with some leftist groups and promised to shake up elitist politics.</p>
<p>But as curator and academic Lisa Ito-Tapang has noted, over the past year Duterte’s alliances have steadily shifted, including a more prominent alliance with the family of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and “a lot of the positionings of artists also reflected those kinds of shifts”. </p>
<p>For example, a 2016 recent exhibition at the University of the Philippines, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/dissidentvicinities/">Dissident Vicinities</a>, featured works by the militant leftist group BAYAN among other activists and artists. The group is known for making effigies of politicians to be burned at rallies. </p>
<p>However, during Duterte’s first State of the Nation address in 2016, BAYAN instead produced six “Portraits of Peace” murals, inviting Duterte to address pressing challenges across the Philippines. But a year later, <a href="http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/916577/effigy-makes-comeback-in-sona-demonstration">BAYAN returned to making effigies</a> in protest at the political repression. </p>
<h2>The view from the disapora</h2>
<p>Beyond the Philippines, political tensions are also reflected in the work of artists in the diaspora. At Western Sydney’s Blacktown Arts Centre - Filipinos are the largest migrant community in Blacktown - glimpses of Duterte could be seen across many works in <em>Balik Bayan,</em> a recent exhibition of Filipino-Australian artists. </p>
<p>Underneath a house built by artist Alwin Reamillo, a toy Japanese cat waved welcome. With Duterte’s face plastered over the cat’s head, the wave looks increasingly like the president’s signature fist-pump. Alwin has been adding Duterte’s head to different items (matchboxes and wooden pieces) for several months, and plans to keep reworking Duterte’s image in upcoming exhibitions. Alwin is openly critical of the consequences of Duterte’s Presidency upon Philippine society. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195162/original/file-20171117-7547-hugujn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195162/original/file-20171117-7547-hugujn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195162/original/file-20171117-7547-hugujn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195162/original/file-20171117-7547-hugujn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195162/original/file-20171117-7547-hugujn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=899&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195162/original/file-20171117-7547-hugujn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195162/original/file-20171117-7547-hugujn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/195162/original/file-20171117-7547-hugujn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1130&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Marikit Santiago’s images present Duterte in ways both religious and profane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Jade Cadeliña</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the same exhibition, Marikit Santiago presents an image of Duterte at once religious and profane. Although Santiago says she does “not have a strong political voice”, her work was prompted by conflicting opinions on Duterte within her own extended family, where political discussions had not previously been common.</p>
<p>In Sydney this October, the LabAnino collective of Filipino and Australian artists performed a new work, <a href="http://performancespace.com.au/events/liveworks-2017-this-here-land/">This Here. Land</a>. It reflected political differences held within the collective, where members were variously supportive and critical of Duterte. </p>
<p>In the piece’s culmination, outgoing audience members participated in a recreation of the most famous <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2016/08/la-pieta-philippines-duterte/494330/">photographic image</a> (see below) to emerge from coverage of Manila’s late-night killings. Incoming audience members, meanwhile, used their phones to illuminate and document the recreation of the image. All are complicit in the witnessing, debating and disputing of new political realities. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/Ba3wPBpl0YU","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Across the political and geographic differences that mark Filipino communities at home and abroad, artistic initiatives may be creating small spaces in which people can attempt to bridge increasingly tense divides. </p>
<p>These may offer hope not only to those caught up in its violence, but also to other Filipinos seeking ways beyond the political realm to make sense of their circumstances.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/84510/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Cristina Pertierra has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council, the University of Queensland and Western Sydney University. </span></em></p>Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte’s ‘War on Drugs’ is estimated to have led to more than 13,000 killings. Artists - both in the Philippines and beyond - are helping communities work through their trauma.Anna Cristina Pertierra, Senior Lecturer, Cultural and Social Analysis, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/872352017-11-14T01:20:30Z2017-11-14T01:20:30ZDid Trump’s charm offensive work in the Philippines?<p>President Donald J. Trump is wrapping up a whirlwind tour of Asia, visiting <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/10/16/statement-press-secretary-president-donald-j-trumps-upcoming-travel-asia">five countries in 12 days</a>. The trip revealed much about Trump’s style of diplomacy – one that focuses more on his personal relationships with world leaders than diplomatic relations between countries.</p>
<p>Both democratic and authoritarian leaders have <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/11/13/trump-isnt-sure-if-democracy-is-better-than-autocracy/?utm_content=buffer238e3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer">been wooed</a> by Trump’s charm offensive. He has highlighted his <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-asia-china-bromance/trump-heaps-praise-on-very-special-xi-in-china-visit-idUSKBN1D91C8?il=0">warm feelings</a> toward China’s President Xi Jinping and <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/929511061954297857">tweeted</a> that he tries “so hard to be [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s] friend.” </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"929511061954297857"}"></div></p>
<p>Trump’s relationship with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, one of the first leaders <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/11/18/national/politics-diplomacy/new-york-talks-abe-confident-can-build-trust-based-ties-trump/#.WgmujraZOYY">welcomed to Trump Tower</a> after the election, is <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/11/06/remarks-president-trump-and-prime-minister-abe-japan-joint-press">“extraordinary</a>,” according to the president. </p>
<p>This style of diplomacy certainly has its <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/11/13/why-donald-trumps-foreign-policy-ambitions-will-always-collapse/?utm_term=.d1c7de9ae19e">limitations</a>, but could it actually improve the United States’ relationship with the Philippines – a key Southeast Asian ally?</p>
<h2>Why we need our allies in Asia</h2>
<p>On the campaign trail and in office, Trump has often <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/2/16/14635204/burden-sharing-allies-nato-trump">criticized</a> many of America’s allies for taking advantage of Washington’s generosity and <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-misplaced-burden-sharing-fight-18601">not contributing more</a> to their own national security. However, my <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423911000928">research</a> with Queen’s University political scientist Stefanie von Hlatky demonstrates that even when allies fail to share as much of the military burden as the United States would hope, they still make meaningful contributions to our military efforts overseas. </p>
<p>Our alliance relationships in Asia are based on a series of mutual defense treaties negotiated in the aftermath of World War II. The <a href="http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/phil001.asp">U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense treaty</a> signed in 1951 focuses on the countries’ shared history of resistance against Japan’s “imperialist aggression” in the Pacific. It commits the two nations to mutual aid in defending against an external armed attack as part of a comprehensive system of regional security. Given the possibility of a <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/south-china-sea-war-nuclear-submarines-china-united-states-barack-obama-xi-473428">future confrontation with China</a> over the <a href="http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-china-plans-win-war-the-south-china-sea-22073">South China Sea</a>, alliances with countries like the Philippines matter. After all, the Philippines provides access to regional bases and other logistical support.</p>
<h2>New leaders, unexpected directions</h2>
<p>Since the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36253612">election</a> of the populist Duterte in May 2016, the U.S.-Philippines alliance has been on rocky ground. </p>
<p>The Obama-Duterte relationship was full of tension stemming from the Obama administration’s criticism of Duterte’s <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/09/07/philippine-president-rodrigo-dutertes-war-drugs">violent war on drugs</a>, which some claim has now led to approximately <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/thousands-demand-killings-duterte-drug-war-170821124440845.html">13,000 deaths</a>. Duterte showed no hesitation in calling out the United States for treating the Philippines <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2016/09/duterte-obama-extrajudicial-killings/498710/">like a colony</a>, <a href="https://www.rt.com/news/381349-duterte-obama-idiot-trump/">insulting Obama</a> and musing that he might shift his foreign policy toward <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/18/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-china-us.html">China</a> and <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-summit-philippines-russia/well-buy-arms-from-russia-philippines-duterte-tells-putin-idUSKBN1DA1K7">Russia</a> and “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-duterte-arms/philippine-leader-tells-obama-go-to-hell-says-can-buy-arms-from-russia-china-idUSKCN12414A">break up with America</a>.”</p>
<p>Trump’s election and his overtures to Duterte have helped get the strained relationship back on the right track. The two men bonded over their countries’ <a href="https://theintercept.com/2017/05/23/trump-called-rodrigo-duterte-to-congratulate-him-on-his-murderous-drug-war-you-are-doing-an-amazing-job/">mutual struggle with drugs</a>. They claimed a shared understanding about the importance of <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/duterte-donald-trump-praised-philippines-drug-crackdown/">protecting one’s country</a>. In fact, the administration signaled that Trump’s heavily <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-trump-sees-in-philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte">criticized</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/30/us/politics/trump-invites-rodrigo-duterte-to-the-white-house.html">invitation to Duterte</a> to visit the White House was a sign of the “very positive direction” of the U.S.-Philippines relationship under his leadership.</p>
<p>It is therefore no surprise that the two leaders met privately during Trump’s Asia visit. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa/philippines-duterte-says-to-deal-with-trump-in-most-righteous-way-idUSKBN1CY0OR">Topics on the table</a> included terrorism – especially the Philippine military’s recent success against <a href="https://theconversation.com/terrorist-leaders-in-the-philippines-are-dead-will-democracy-be-restored-85795">militants linked to Islamic State</a> in the southern region of Mindanao – trade and their respective anti-drug campaigns.</p>
<h2>Can Trump revive the relationship?</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194417/original/file-20171113-27616-w6l831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194417/original/file-20171113-27616-w6l831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194417/original/file-20171113-27616-w6l831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194417/original/file-20171113-27616-w6l831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194417/original/file-20171113-27616-w6l831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194417/original/file-20171113-27616-w6l831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/194417/original/file-20171113-27616-w6l831.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Will President Trump ignore Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s record on human rights?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Bullit Marquez</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The extent to which the topic of <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/11/13/563688200/human-rights-barely-registers-in-meeting-between-trump-philippines-duterte">human rights came up</a> in their conversation is <a href="http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/11/13/Duterte-Trump-bilateral-talks.html">unclear</a>. Trump has already been criticized for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-boasts-of-great-relationship-with-philippines-duterte-at-first-formal-meeting/2017/11/13/e6612f14-c813-11e7-b0cf-7689a9f2d84e_story.html?utm_term=.e8a4c5e0031b">failing to press harder</a> on this issue. However, it is possible that Trump rightly understands that pushing Duterte on human rights would continue to move Duterte away from the West and toward China.</p>
<p>Trump’s comments in China mingled criticism of China’s trade practices with praise of President Xi. However, in the Philippines, Trump chose to forgo this more nuanced approach, leaving diplomatic opportunities on the table. In praising Duterte’s handling of an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/17/world/asia/philippines-marawi-fighting.html">Islamist insurgency</a>, Trump could have pushed for an end to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/14/the-philippines-is-under-martial-law-heres-how-that-can-be-dangerous-for-democracy/?utm_term=.adb99e10e71f">martial law</a> in Mindanao. In highlighting <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-10/u-s-special-forces-assist-philippines-against-islamic-militants">how the United States helped</a> in the battle against Islamist militants, Trump could have laid out how much more we can do to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/terrorism-in-the-philippines-and-u-s-philippine-security-cooperation/">improve security</a> and <a href="http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/09/05/1736060/us-provides-p730-m-aid-marawi-rehab">help to rebuild the city of Marawi</a>, which was devastated by the Philippines’ <a href="http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/907272/afp-steps-up-bombing-operations-in-marawi">bombing campaign</a>. </p>
<p>Trump’s style of diplomacy and his foreign policy agenda are a radical departure from his predecessor’s. In the Philippines, this shift is largely welcome. Sixty-nine percent of Filipinos <a href="http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/09/20171150/Pew-Research-Center_Philippines-Report_2017.09.21.pdf">surveyed by Pew Research Center</a> in late September of this year had confidence that Trump would do the right thing in world affairs. </p>
<p>On his first official visit to the country, Trump <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-asia/trump-vaunts-trade-progress-red-carpets-on-fruitful-asia-trip-idUSKBN1DD0FJ">praised his treatment</a> in the Philippines as “red carpet like nobody, I think, has probably ever received.” In turn, he was officially declared “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/world/asia/trump-duterte-philippines.html">a friend of the Duterte administration</a>.” </p>
<p>Ultimately, a positive change in the direction of U.S.-Philippines relations may come down to whether Trump and Duterte’s mutual admiration is enough to shift the Philippines’ foreign policy back toward the United States. Doing so will likely require avoiding discussion of human rights, leaving Filipinos to bear the costs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87235/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Trisko Darden is a Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. </span></em></p>When Obama was president, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte threatened to break up with America. Is it time to make up?Jessica Trisko Darden, Assistant Professor of International Affairs, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/857952017-10-23T00:41:54Z2017-10-23T00:41:54ZTerrorist leaders in the Philippines are dead – will democracy be restored?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/191240/original/file-20171020-13963-1mlm7lg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Explosions continue in Marawi, a day after President Duterte declared the city liberated.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Bullit Marquez</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For almost five months, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/duterte-declares-martial-law-on-southern-philippine-island-of-mindanao/2017/05/23/cf77fcae-3fd0-11e7-adba-394ee67a7582_story.html?utm_term=.51d1a5bd6474">21 million people</a> in the southern Philippines have been living under <a href="https://www.usnews.com/opinion/world-report/articles/2017-05-26/duterte-declares-martial-law-putting-the-philippines-democracy-at-risk">martial law</a>. </p>
<p>Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte declared martial law in the province of Mindanao <a href="http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/898913/duterte-declares-martial-law-in-mindanao">in May</a> in response to increasing Islamist militant activity.</p>
<p>Since that time, <a href="http://www.manilatimes.net/marawi-free/357155/">more than 1,000</a> people, mostly militants, have died in the army’s campaign to clear Marawi city of Islamist insurgents. Though the leaders of two groups were recently <a href="http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/10/16/1749406/how-maute-hapilon-died-one-last-marawi-gunfights">killed</a> by the army and Duterte declared Marawi “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/17/world/asia/philippines-marawi-fighting.html">liberated</a>,” sporadic fighting continues. Duterte himself recently stated that <a href="http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/630180/duterte-martial-law-in-mindanao-stays-until-last-terrorist-taken-out/story/">martial law will remain</a> “until the last terrorist is taken out.”</p>
<p>Such statements have led many – and not just human rights scholars like myself – to wonder, when will full democracy be restored in the Philippines?</p>
<h2>Undermining democracy</h2>
<p>States of emergency, of which martial law is an extreme form, <a href="http://cfariss.com/documents/Hafner-BurtonHelferFariss2011IO.pdf">allow governments</a> facing serious crises to suspend certain laws and enact emergency plans. For example, under martial law the government can impose a curfew or suspend habeas corpus, allowing individuals to be arrested and detained without warrants. Martial law is permitted in the <a href="http://www.gov.ph/constitutions/1987-constitution/">Constitution</a> of the Philippines and the <a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/ProfessionalInterest/Pages/CCPR.aspx">International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights</a>. This is also true in the United States. During the American Civil War, Congress authorized the suspension of habeas corpus in 1863 at <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=69898">President Lincoln’s request</a>. But, martial law increases <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/14/the-philippines-is-under-martial-law-heres-how-that-can-be-dangerous-for-democracy/?utm_term=.4f47460b5168">risks of human rights abuses</a>.</p>
<p>This is not the Philippines’ first experience with martial law. When President Ferdinand Marcos <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDCHIIXEXes">declared martial law</a> in 1972, he emphasized that it did not represent a military takeover but rather a <a href="http://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/1972/09/21/proclamation-no-1081/">response</a> to a foreign-directed attempt to overthrow the government. But, he ultimately used martial law as a pretext to install a dictatorship that lasted until 1986. Under his regime, 70,000 Filipinos were imprisoned and 34,000 were tortured, according to <a href="http://www.amnesty.org.ph/contact-us/ml_reports/">Amnesty International</a>.</p>
<p>Duterte, who is known for his increasingly unpopular “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/10/philippines-drug-war-hits-president-rodrigo-duterte-popularity-ratings.html">war on drugs</a>” and links to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/02/philippines-president-duterte-drugs-war-death-squads">death squads</a> responsible for extrajudicial killings while he was mayor of Davao City, hinted as early as August 2016 that he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/30/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-quotes-hitler-whore-philippines.html?_r=0">might use</a> martial law to circumvent <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/rodrigo-duterte-martial-law-suspend-elections-in-the-philippines-2017-3">constitutional limits</a> on his power. </p>
<p>And once Duterte eventually <a href="http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/898913/duterte-declares-martial-law-in-mindanao">declared martial law</a>, the military immediately announced that it would <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/philippine-military-to-censor-press-and-social-media-under-martial-law-in-mindanao">censor the press and social media</a> so that military operations would not be compromised.</p>
<p>The president himself has repeatedly said that he will consider <a href="http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/24/17/duterte-may-expand-martial-law-to-visayas">expanding martial law</a> to cover the entire country and <a href="http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/05/24/1703241/drawing-parallels-marcos-duterte-says-martial-law-period-good">praised Marcos’s use</a> of martial law. More recently, Duterte said that he <a href="http://www.sunstar.com.ph/manila/local-news/2017/09/21/protesters-slam-martial-law-killings-under-duterte-565335">will use force</a> in response to anti-government protests that threaten public order.</p>
<p>Political rights, like the freedom to peacefully assemble, are essential to the public’s ability to check executive power. When political rights are compromised, as with the censorship of the press and social media or the suppression of protests, the foundation of democracy can rapidly erode – as citizens of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/world/americas/venezuela-protests-maduro.html">Venezuela</a> and <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/14/turkish-opposition-mp-jailed-25-years-latest-political-crackdown/">Turkey</a> have recently experienced.</p>
<h2>Will martial law continue?</h2>
<p>Martial law continues even as civilians are being <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/malaysian-militant-believed-fighters-killed-marawi-50577399">urged to return to their homes</a>. </p>
<p>When martial law will be lifted remains uncertain. On July 22, 2017, the Philippine Congress <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/176345-congress-extend-martial-law-december">voted</a> to extend martial law until December 2017. Any decision to lift it early will have to come from the president. This opens the door for Duterte to find <a href="http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/10/17/1749759/afp-martial-law-still-needed-parts-mindanao">justifications for continuing</a> and possibly extending martial law beyond December.</p>
<p>Prominent opposition leaders like Sen. Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel have referred to Duterte’s rule as a “<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Philippine-martial-law-protests-seek-to-end-Duterte-tyranny">Dutertatorship</a>,” and accused his regime of showing a blatant disregard for democracy. But the Senate has so far given a stamp of approval for Duterte’s plans. This political support would give him even greater power if he attempts to extend or expand martial law. However, that’s not a foregone conclusion.</p>
<p>Duterte did little to oppose legal objections to martial law, which made their way to the Supreme Court. Although he has targeted individual opponents, like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/24/philippines-senator-leila-de-lima-president-duterte-serial-killer-faces-arrest">Sen. Leila De Lima</a>, Duterte is not simply shutting down his opposition. For example, he spoke to <a href="https://apnews.com/a86d1f1a8dbf48af88eebbddce91c24e">thousands of protesters</a> outside of his July 2017 State of the Nation address and allowed <a href="http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/09/21/1741336/photos-thousands-protest-martial-law-killings-under-duterte">protests</a> on the 45th anniversary of the imposition of martial law by Marcos. These are promising signs.</p>
<p>Filipinos have been reenergized, staging protests against a range of issues including <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-26/rodrigo-duterte:-philippines-funeral-turns-into-protest/8845686">police brutality</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-mining/protesters-storm-philippines-mining-event-demand-halt-to-extraction-idUSKCN1BH0OQ">large-scale mining</a>. Critics have <a href="https://qz.com/850216/rodrigo-duterte-and-ferdinand-marcos-are-a-tinder-match-made-in-hell-scenes-from-the-protests-in-the-philippines/">challenged</a> Duterte’s 2016 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/19/world/asia/philippines-marcos-burial.html">burial of Marcos</a> in the country’s cemetery for national heroes and raised alarms about his coziness with the <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/183878-duterte-absolving-bongbong-imee-marcos-lagman">Marcos clan</a>. If martial law is lifted early or allowed to expire in December, then Duterte’s experiment with martial law may have in fact been good for democracy in the Philippines. Only time will tell.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85795/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Trisko Darden is Assistant Professor at American University's School of International Service and Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. </span></em></p>President Duterte declared martial law back in March to aid the fight against Islamic militants. Many fear he will continue using this power.Jessica Trisko Darden, Assistant Professor of International Affairs, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/800832017-08-11T02:09:20Z2017-08-11T02:09:20ZWe frown on voters’ ambivalence about democracy, but they might just save it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177787/original/file-20170712-14452-n1dwgq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Voters might be quite rational in refusing to give the green light to those who wield power and benefit from the status quo.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/edenius/11035402625/">Mats Edenius/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/democracy-futures">Democracy Futures</a> project, a <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/democracy-futures/">joint global initiative</a> between The Conversation and the <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/">Sydney Democracy Network</a>. The project aims to stimulate fresh thinking about the many challenges facing democracies in the 21st century.</em></p>
<p><em>This piece is part of a series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/after-populism-39385">After Populism</a>, about the challenges populism poses for democracy. It comes from a talk at the <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Populism-Symposium-6-April-2017.pdf">Populism: What’s Next for Democracy?</a> symposium hosted by the <a href="http://www.governanceinstitute.edu.au/">Institute for Governance & Policy Analysis</a> at the University of Canberra in collaboration with <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/">Sydney Democracy Network</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>The flipside of the populism coin is voter ambivalence about “democracy” as we know it.</p>
<p>Though much of the reporting of last year’s US presidential race focused on the “angry” American voter, it has been <a href="https://cer.columbian.gwu.edu/sites/cer.columbian.gwu.edu/files/Sides2016.pdf">observed</a> that perhaps the most striking feature of the campaign that led to the election of Donald Trump was not so much that people were angry, as “ambivalent”.</p>
<p>In another surprising 2016 election, in the Philippines, <a href="http://www.journalofdemocracy.org/article/vote-philippines-elite-democracy-disrupted">observers also reflected</a> that a shared “ambivalence” about democratic government must in large part have led many middle-class voters to support the firebrand Rodrigo Duterte.</p>
<p>And in France, people explained the <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/4-takeaways-from-the-french-parliamentary-election/">record low turnout</a> in June’s parliamentary elections by pointing to the “<a href="https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2017/05/03/macron-le-pen-runoff-reveals-fault-lines-french-catholic-revival">ambivalent base</a>”. Despite Emmanuel Macron’s election, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/18/world/europe/france-parliament-elections-emmanuel-macron.html?_r=0">new president had</a> “yet to convince many French voters that his ideas and legislative program will make their lives better”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177831/original/file-20170712-14488-15hq579.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177831/original/file-20170712-14488-15hq579.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177831/original/file-20170712-14488-15hq579.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177831/original/file-20170712-14488-15hq579.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177831/original/file-20170712-14488-15hq579.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177831/original/file-20170712-14488-15hq579.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177831/original/file-20170712-14488-15hq579.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This French voter isn’t easily won over.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">radiowood/flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These examples suggest political ambivalence is everywhere <a href="http://www.journalofdemocracy.org/sites/default/files/Foa%26Mounk-27-3.pdf">on the rise</a>, and that these are anxious times politically. </p>
<p>If the appeal of leaders like Trump and Duterte is anything to go on, despite or perhaps because of their peddling of a violent and exclusionary rhetoric, widespread ambivalence among citizens of democracies has potentially dangerous consequences.</p>
<h2>A wilful, rational response</h2>
<p>We often equate ambivalence with indecision or indifference. But it’s a more complex and more spirited idea than that. Ambivalence reflects our capacity to say both “yes” and “no” about a person or an object at the same time.</p>
<p>Eugen Bleuler, the Swiss psychiatrist who <a href="http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=ambivalence">coined the term in 1910</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=RiTyZUYp9asC&pg=PR33&lpg=PR33&dq=Symbiosis+and+Ambiguity&source=bl&ots=pIZi_P3P3G&sig=lir2rqgmv7vz5sYeTAPoyKib_8w&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjB77ClpbrVAhXEHJQKHfm8BDIQ6AEIPTAF#v=onepage&q=dreams%20of%20healthy&f=false">wrote</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the dreams of healthy persons, affective as well as intellectual ambivalence is a common phenomenon.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Freud soon picked up the term to describe our capacity to love and hate a person all at once.</p>
<p>We needn’t be Freudians to see that ambivalence reflects our common “<a href="http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/635426">inner experience</a>”. While we cannot physically be in two places at once, in our minds it is not only possible but likely that dualities and conflicting ideas or beliefs co-exist at the same time. Think of Hamlet’s soliloquy:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>To be, or not to be, that is the question:</p>
<p>Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer</p>
<p>The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,</p>
<p>Or to take Arms against a Sea of troubles,</p>
<p>And by opposing end them…</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The point is that, rather than reflecting some psychological deficiency or cognitive dissonance, ambivalence is an active and wilful position to take. </p>
<p>Ambivalence is even rational, in that it requires an awareness of mutually exclusive choices and a refusal to choose; just as wanting a bit of both is also rational.</p>
<h2>Is this a dangerous development?</h2>
<p>When it comes to politics, we often hold conflicting, even mutually exclusive visions, of the sort of society we want. </p>
<p>In the Philippines, the middle-class voters I interviewed in 2015 wanted the civil liberties that democracy provides. At the same time, they were concerned that too much freedom was causing social and political chaos. </p>
<p>The two ideas, though contradictory, co-existed in people’s minds. This type of ambivalence at least partly explains why urban middle-class voters <a href="http://news.abs-cbn.com/halalan2016/nation/05/11/16/more-class-abc-voters-picked-duterte-exit-poll">came out in numbers</a> to elect someone like Duterte. </p>
<p>As ambivalence is often linked to the victories of populists, there is a general sense that our ambivalence is destabilising, dangerous and needs to be purged. Ambivalent citizens, the reasoning goes, place a heavy burden on their country’s democracy, as by questioning the status quo of the modern democratic state they undermine its very legitimacy. </p>
<p>The failure to reach clarity implies a failed agency on the part of the ambivalent citizen; it is they who carry the burden of resolving their own feelings and returning to a place of undivided certainty. </p>
<p>Commentary after the US election spoke of not letting the ambivalent Trump-voting middle class (who should have known better) “<a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/138754/blame-trumps-victory-college-educated-whites-not-working-class">off the hook</a>”.</p>
<p>Yet, as Zygmunt Bauman <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=iegdiOrGugkC">noted</a>, the more we try to eradicate ambivalence by calling it ignorance and “mere opinion”, the more the opposite is likely to occur. </p>
<p>Furthermore, people who have been reduced to decision-takers will be more likely to see radical, revolutionary, even destructive change as the only way to resolve their ambivalence.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177830/original/file-20170712-10371-lol25q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177830/original/file-20170712-10371-lol25q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177830/original/file-20170712-10371-lol25q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177830/original/file-20170712-10371-lol25q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177830/original/file-20170712-10371-lol25q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177830/original/file-20170712-10371-lol25q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177830/original/file-20170712-10371-lol25q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Those in positions of power often view ambivalence on the streets as socially toxic or threatening.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">jprwpics/flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ambivalence can be a check on power</h2>
<p>Democracy and ambivalence, rather than being antithetical, may be strange bedfellows. At the heart of the democratic idea is a notion of “the people” as both the source and guardians of power.</p>
<p>Consider the way <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0191453706059848">Ernesto Laclau</a> sees the political as always in conflict, inherent in conflicting identities struggling for dominance. </p>
<p>While the collective identity of “the people” claims to accommodate difference, this is impossible without the constitutive exclusion of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/modis-polarising-populism-makes-a-fiction-of-a-secular-democratic-india-80605">the other</a>”. </p>
<p>If this is the case, democracy should stimulate our scepticism. Who is being excluded in the name of “the people”? And who has gained the power to constitute their particular identity as a unified whole?</p>
<p>Ideally, representative democracy seeks not only to recognise but to institutionalise this scepticism, and to manage our disappointment with democracy. It is our ability to withdraw our support and give it elsewhere that means our contested visions of society don’t lead to its destruction.</p>
<p>The trouble is that the 21st-century democratic state has little tolerance of our scepticism about power. Citizens are pressured to turn their trust over to a bureau-technocratic order led by “experts” in order to deal with complex, contemporary problems. The role of voters is transformed into that of passive bystanders, prone to chaos and irrationality, and not to be trusted.</p>
<p>Matters are made worse by extreme concentration of wealth and income inequality. Thomas Piketty correctly <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674430006">warned</a> that extreme inequality would threaten the democratic order. </p>
<p>Despite observing (and experiencing) the undermining of basic social protections and equity principles, people are expected to stay in their place. It is as if ordinary citizens are not trusted to make their own judgements, unless those judgements endorse the path of little or no change. </p>
<p>Their ambivalence, which may be a purposive response to their evaluation of how democracy is actually working, is deemed toxic and socially useless.</p>
<p>No doubt such widespread ambivalence, as well as this denial of the valid expression of unmet aspirations, has provided fertile ground for populist politicians. </p>
<p>The likes of Trump and Duterte appeal to people’s desire not to be fixed into pre-determined standards of how to think and behave. And in claiming to fill a gap as “true” representatives of “the people”, they enable what often turns out to be a radical expression of voter ambivalence.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177819/original/file-20170712-20377-1xyv26g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177819/original/file-20170712-20377-1xyv26g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177819/original/file-20170712-20377-1xyv26g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177819/original/file-20170712-20377-1xyv26g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177819/original/file-20170712-20377-1xyv26g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177819/original/file-20170712-20377-1xyv26g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177819/original/file-20170712-20377-1xyv26g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rodrigo Duterte poses with the Philippines military and boxer and senator Manny Pacquiao in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rene Lumawag/Republic of the Philippines Presidential Communications Office</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A chance to rethink the status quo</h2>
<p>Political ambivalence is more than a flawed tension of opposites. Neither is it a temporary deviance. It is deeply rooted, and likely here to stay. </p>
<p>The more we dismiss and disparage it, rebuking voters who “should know better”, the more we risk its manifestation in destructive ways.</p>
<p>A more constructive first step for managing ambivalence as a society would be to recognise it – even embrace it – as a chance to reflect critically on the status quo.</p>
<p>Kenneth Weisbrode <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/ambivalence">likened</a> ambivalence to a yellow traffic light, the one that exasperates us at the time, but in fact helps us avoid fatal collisions:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… a yellow light that tells us to pause before going forward pell-mell with green, or paralysing ourselves with red.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If we heed his advice, the presence of widespread ambivalence should prompt us to pause and look around.</p>
<p>This is more radical than it may sound. Slowing down, and contemplating how our democracy is working for us as a community, potentially limits the power of those who benefit from the status quo. </p>
<p>It could even be seen as one of democracy’s internal safety mechanisms, since being sceptical about the exercise of power and keeping in check those who benefit from it, is what keeps democracy alive. </p>
<p>Bauman <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?redir_esc=y&id=ftcYAAAAYAAJ&focus=searchwithinvolume&q=by+hook">wrote</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The world is ambivalent, though its colonisers and rulers do not like it to be such and by hook and by crook try to pass it off for one that is not.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Ambivalence may be the most rational response to the fact that, in 2017, the notion of democracy as a politics of self-government and collectively made choices has, in many respects, become a lullaby, mere rhetoric that serves the interests of those who benefit from the persistence of a shared yet elusive ideal.</p>
<p>If not the populist figures, who or what else in our democracies today is claiming to represent “the people”? A living democracy hinges upon this type of circumspection. It could even usher in a new era of democracy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80083/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Adele Webb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ambivalence among voters is reason to think about how democracy is working for us as a community. To keep democracy alive we need to be sceptical about the exercise of power and keep it in check.Dr Adele Webb, PhD Researcher, Department of Government and International Relations / Sydney Democracy Network, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.