tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/scottish-greens-26724/articlesScottish Greens – The Conversation2016-12-22T12:38:04Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/696952016-12-22T12:38:04Z2016-12-22T12:38:04ZBasic income is a radical idea bound for the political mainstream – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150502/original/image-20161216-26082-eth6jz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mission: poverty eradication. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-530801674/stock-photo-basic-income-words-on-red-keyboard-button.html?src=J774vJLGC3i3jbPDeS93JQ-1-1">Kunst Bilder</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>An idea gaining traction in various part of the world is that everyone in society should receive an amount of money from the state to cover their basic cost of living. People would no longer be stigmatised on benefits, argue supporters. </p>
<p>Dependent women would become financially independent. People would be freed to care for the elderly, crime would fall and the general health of the population would improve. Particularly in an era of <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety">fears about</a> future mass unemployment caused by automation, there is a growing feeling that this citizens’ basic income is an idea that’s time has come. </p>
<p>Experiments are either getting underway or have taken place in parts of <a href="http://basicincome.org/news/2016/09/ontario-canada-new-report-minimum-income-pilot/">Canada</a>, <a href="https://helda.helsinki.fi/bitstream/handle/10138/167728/WorkingPapers106.pdf?sequence=4">Finland</a>, <a href="http://isa-global-dialogue.net/indias-great-experiment-the-transformative-potential-of-basic-income-grants/">India</a> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/26/dutch-city-utrecht-basic-income-uk-greens">Netherlands</a>. Now Scotland could become the first part of the UK to trial such a system. Fife and Glasgow councils have both <a href="http://basicincome.org/news/2016/11/scotland-fife-glasgow-investigate-basic-income-pilots/">held discussions</a> recently, while a new body, Citizen’s Basic Income Network Scotland, has <a href="http://basicincome.org/news/2016/11/glasgow-scotland-citizens-basic-income-network-scotland-launch-event-nov-26/">launched</a>. </p>
<p>Scotland is at a useful crossroads for such an experiment because it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jul/29/social-security-not-benefits-scotland-to-ponder-words-of-welfare">will have</a> a new <a href="https://consult.scotland.gov.uk/social-security/social-security-in-scotland">social security system</a> after a number of benefits are devolved from London over the next couple of years. The citizens’ basic income has <a href="https://greens.scot/news/greens-publish-citizens-income-plan-for-fairer-scotland/">long been a policy</a> of the Scottish Greens, but political support has been widening this year after the SNP <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/universal-basic-income-snp-scotland-independent-conference-vote-a6931846.html">voted in favour</a> of a motion supporting it at their spring conference. </p>
<p>Together with UK-level encouragement via discussion events from society organisation <a href="https://www.thersa.org/events/fellowship-events/2016/5/rsa-scotland-angus-millar-lecture-2016---17-may">RSA</a> and a policy paper from left-wing group <a href="http://www.compassonline.org.uk/publications/universal-basic-income-an-idea-whose-time-has-come/">Compass</a>, this galvanised supporters to lobby Scottish councils to trial it locally as one way of improving poverty and inequality. </p>
<p>Fife is now launching a feasibility study early in 2017 which looks likely to follow other models and concentrate on a specific poorer area within the population of 365,000. Glasgow’s council, population nearly 600,000, has expressed its interest in the basic income’s potential for improving poverty levels in the city and Labour councillor Matt Kerr is to begin researching and designing a trial. </p>
<p><strong>Poverty in the UK, millions</strong></p>
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<p>On the question of what level of income would be reasonable, I have suggested between £700 and £1,000 per month. Annie Miller of Citizen’s Basic Income Network Scotland <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0044/00441818.pdf">has suggested</a> it should be half the average income level, <a href="http://www.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S4/SB_15-82_Earnings_in_Scotland_2015.pdf">meaning</a> £1,154/month, funded by a flat rate of income tax of 40%. (The basic income itself would be tax-exempt.) </p>
<h2>Pros and cons</h2>
<p>The idea of a basic income has attracted support over the years from across the political spectrum, including on the Right from the likes of <a href="http://www.fljs.org/files/publications/Murray.pdf">Charles Murray</a> and <a href="https://www.libertarianism.org/columns/why-did-hayek-support-basic-income">Friedrich Hayek</a>. It is by no means universally accepted, however – <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36454060">Switzerland</a> held a referendum on introducing it nationwide earlier this year and it was decisively rejected. </p>
<p>Opponents worry about costs, for example, with one report <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21699907-proponents-basic-income-underestimate-how-disruptive-it-would-be-basically-flawed">suggesting that</a> replacing the American welfare system with a basic income would add about ten percentage points to the tax take as a proportion of GDP if you gave everyone a mere US$10,000 a year (£8,100, or £675 a month). Opponents also worry idleness <a href="https://tifwe.org/universal-basic-income-biblical-view-of-work/">would become</a> more widespread, that you would <a href="https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-benefits-and-drawbacks-of-basic-income-guarantee">further entrench</a> state dependency and that any rich countries trying it would have to close their borders to prevent a huge influx of inward migration. </p>
<p>The costings argument is <a href="https://www.equities.com/news/money-for-nothing-and-your-checks-for-free-why-the-basic-income-makes-more-sense-than-you-think">far from clear cut</a>, however. It ignores the substantial economic stimulus from the increase in government spending, as well as the savings from better public health, lower crime and so forth. The huge cost of implementing the means-tested benefits system has also helped make the simplicity of the basic income <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1eOVU61mZE">seem</a> much more attractive. As for the immigration issue, this could <a href="http://basicincome.org/news/2014/08/jesse-spafford-reconciling-basic-income-and-immigration/">be tackled</a> by graduating the basic income for new arrivals and everyone else over 18 to start with a lower payment that rose towards a maximum over a number of years. </p>
<p>Opponents also ignore the very real positive examples of poverty eradication and citizen empowerment from trials such as <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/12/23/mincome-in-dauphin-manitoba_n_6335682.html">one in Canada</a> in the 1970s. That experiment in Manitoba province also showed that health and well-being indicators improved for recipients, while hospitalisations and mental health diagnoses fell. </p>
<p>Professor Guy Standing of the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, one of the leading proponents of a basic income, used the launch of Citizen’s Basic Income Network Scotland in November to outline how the results from an experiment in Pradesh, India had been stronger than anticipated. </p>
<p>The experiment saw people in a number of villages receiving a basic income for 18 months, including children (paid to a parent or guardian). The only social group doing less paid work than before was the children, while work rates increased for all other segments of the population – hardly widespread idleness. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, women and girls had become financially independent and were enjoying better health, which will be particularly interesting to feminist economists. (We at GCU are <a href="http://www.gcu.ac.uk/wise/aboutus/meettheteam/researchstudents/">currently looking</a> at how a basic income could improve the economic prospects of women from ethnic minorities and disabled women.) </p>
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<p>So while it might be some time before we see countries adopting the basic income across the board, there does appear to be a strong case to be made for it. The next few years should produce considerably more data about how it works in practice – hopefully Fife and Glasgow included. When it comes to ideas moving from the fringes to the political mainstream, this is one that is making the journey.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69695/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Broadhurst is affiliated to the Women in Scotland's Economy (WiSE) Research Centre at GCU, a member of the Scottish Women's Budget Group and a member of the Scottish Green Party</span></em></p>Scotland is the latest place to look at piloting the concept.Jennifer Broadhurst, Pre-doctoral Researcher, Feminist Economics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/592082016-05-11T11:43:48Z2016-05-11T11:43:48ZA second indyref looks inevitable – the Scottish election changes nothing<p>It did not take long for political parties and commentators to start making confident pronouncements about what the <a href="https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2016/05/06/the-scottish-parliament-election-2016-another-momentous-event-but-dull-campaign/">Scottish election result</a> means for the future of the union. Equal first prize must go to the Scottish Conservatives and the Scottish National Party. Ruth Davidson and her fellow Conservatives <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/13/ruth-davidson-pledges-to-fight-snp-with-new-campaign-for-the-uni/">are arguing</a> that commanding 24% of Holyrood seats gives them a mandate as the protector of the union, while Nicola Sturgeon <a href="http://stv.tv/news/politics/1353366-sturgeon-says-summer-independence-drive-will-go-ahead/">insists</a> the SNP has sufficient backing to relaunch its independence campaign in the summer – there is always the danger that the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/oct/28/scotland">leopard man of Skye</a> hasn’t heard about the issue, I suppose. </p>
<p>In truth, the result did not really tell us anything more about the two things we already know. The first is that in the short term, the only event that matters is the EU referendum vote on June 23. If most UK voters choose to leave the EU and most in Scotland vote to remain, there will be a constitutional crisis. The ruling SNP will push for a second referendum on Scottish independence; and along with the six Green MSPs, it will have the votes to pass a bill to that effect in the Scottish parliament. The only obstacle would be a UK government led by the party that just used a referendum to justify major constitutional change.</p>
<p>Second, in the absence of such an event we are just killing a horrible amount of time until the next meaningful opportunity to vote on Scottish independence. Assuming the SNP continues to win elections in Scotland, or at least pro-independence parties maintain a majority in Holyrood, I’ve always thought the gap would be about ten years. That would be enough time since the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotland-decides/results">2014 vote</a> for the Yes side to see if it can produce a generational change in attitudes. </p>
<p>Instead of admitting this state of affairs, we have the usual posturing from the main parties. Both the Tories and the SNP know that the only other triggers of an early referendum are weak – the <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-60-support-needed-before-next-independence-referendum-1-3920508">SNP’s mooted shift</a> in independence support from the current high forties to around 60%; and the Scottish Greens’ <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/scottish-green-manifesto">mention of</a> a petition with maybe 100,000 votes. Yet they feel they have to keep up the longest game of chicken in Scottish political history. </p>
<p>The only party that really needs the further debate is Scottish Labour. The party’s attempts to appear flexible about the constitution and reinstate some distance with the more staunchly unionist Conservatives often make it look confusingly ambivalent. Witness the furore during the campaign when Labour leader Kezia Dugdale <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35948407">initially refused</a> to rule out backing a second independence referendum in the event of a Scottish Remain/UK Brexit vote. Nearer election day the party <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/dugdale-doesnt-ever-want-to-take-part-in-another-independenc?utm_term=.nmLZJZPbOn#.xsxpKpeoxW">ruled out</a> another referendum for the duration of the current parliament. Now the deputy leader Alex Rowley and other senior voices are <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14479042.Labour_s_deputy_leader_says_party_must_back__home_rule__for_Scotland_after_election_disaster/?ref=rss">calling for</a> full home rule, and one backer, former Labour first minister Henry McLeish, <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mcleish-calls-for-fresh-referendum-xtsnw0kpj">wants this</a> put to the public along with independence in a second referendum. </p>
<h2>The heart of the matter</h2>
<p>Another misleading trope is for commentators to <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14479009.David_Torrance__The_Ulsterisation_of_Scottish_politics_is_complete/">argue that</a> this election marks the complete “Ulsterisation” of Scottish politics, where people vote SNP for independence or Conservative for the union and only identity-politics matters. </p>
<p>It must be a tempting argument, but <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9248.12016/abstract">detailed analysis</a> dating back to the SNP victory in the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2007/scottish_parliment/html/region_99999.stm">2007 election</a> strongly suggests that voters’ biggest reason for backing the party has been the belief it would do the best job in office – “<a href="http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/019924488X.001.0001/acprof-9780199244881-chapter-10">valence politics</a>”, as academics sometimes describe it. This is usually key to getting elected anywhere, along with having a leader and a vision for the future that voters respect. The SNP has benefited from being a party that looks highly professional, even if one’s belief in the party’s competence may admittedly be linked strongly to one’s belief in independence. </p>
<p>The same electoral reality explains why the Conservatives went big on Ruth Davidson during the campaign – many of their promotional materials did not even mention the party. It is also why they used a proxy for governing competence – <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/13/scottish-conservative-manifesto-strong-opposition-snp-ruth-davidson">“strong opposition”</a> – in the absence of the likelihood of them being in government. Meanwhile, Labour may have suffered because compared to the SNP and Conservatives, its seems shambolic. Identity politics surely matters as the factor which underpins core attitudes, but these perceptions around competence and leadership probably better explain the trends in support for each party.</p>
<p>Still, perhaps the biggest lesson from this election is that if you are determined to make and act on this argument about identity politics you should do it well. The SNP and Conservatives did it well. In contrast, too many senior people in Scottish Labour – including the leader, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0788y0t">Kezia Dugdale</a>, and former deputy <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/08/scottish-labour-under-pressure-revisit-home-rule">Anas Sarwar</a> – expressed disappointment that the electorate did not think like them. As has been <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-mcternan-three-reasons-why-voters-punished-scottish-labour-1-4121408">pointed out elsewhere</a>, this is hardly likely to endear voters. Put together, constitutional ambivalence and strategic incompetence can be off-putting. So the two biggest parties in the Scottish parliament might be annoyingly narrow-minded, but at least they look like they know what they are doing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cairney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Everyone is trying to claim the Holyrood result furthers their own position. It’s all noise.Paul Cairney, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/590072016-05-06T09:16:40Z2016-05-06T09:16:40ZScottish election 2016: disaster for Labour, reality check for the SNP – and the Tories are back<p>The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland">2016 Scottish election</a> was <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-election-2016-six-things-you-need-to-know-57993">meant to be</a> a foregone conclusion. Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP was expected to achieve another majority in a repeat of 2011, but it hasn’t happened. The party is the clear winner, securing a historic third term, but two seats short of the majority line. It didn’t quite win as many constituencies as it hoped, and the regional-list vote didn’t deliver enough seats to get the SNP to the magic 65. </p>
<p>The other big surprise is the scale of the Conservative revival. The polls <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/05/the-final-poll-apart-from-the-one-that-really-matters/">were predicting</a> a tight race between Labour and the Conservatives for second place, although most commentators believed that Labour would just about hold on to its position as the largest opposition party. As things have transpired, Labour had a terrible night and now finds itself as Scotland’s third party. Ten years ago – even five years ago – such a thought would have been inconceivable. Ruth Davidson’s Conservatives are now the official Holyrood opposition, with seven seats more than Labour. </p>
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<p>So what happened? As with any election, the dust has to settle and the result picked over in greater detail. But a few patterns have emerged.</p>
<h2>Labour is decimated</h2>
<p>In areas that have traditionally been considered Labour heartlands, the SNP has done very well and Kezia Dugdale’s Labour party very badly. In Glasgow, for example, the SNP has secured a clean sweep of constituency seats and increased its majorities in the seats it won in 2011. In that city, as well as Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire and Fife, we have seen a similar pattern to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/scotland">UK election of 2015</a>. Patrick Harvie, co-convenor of the Scottish Greens, even knocked Labour into third place in Glasgow Kelvin. </p>
<p>Barring a few exceptions, it has been the SNP that has come out comfortably on top. Labour’s Jackie Baillie narrowly held Dumbarton, the constituency which houses the UK’s Trident missile system; and former leader Iain Gray narrowly held on to East Lothian as he had done in 2011. Edinburgh Southern was also won by Labour, local factors playing a key role there as they did at last year’s general election – the equivalent Westminster seat is Labour’s only one in Scotland. On the whole, however, the trend for the SNP replacing Labour as the party of Scotland’s working classes has continued unabated. In all, Labour lost 13 constituency seats to be left with just three – one fewer than the Lib Dems. </p>
<p>Labour gained some solace from Scotland’s eight regions, which offer a route for parties to gain seats to counter the disproportionality of first-past-the-post constituencies. It picked up four seats in Glasgow this way, but Mid Scotland and Fife returned them only two list MSPs despite the party winning no constituencies in the region. Lothian and Highlands and Islands also proved disappointing, returning two Labour MSPs on both lists. </p>
<h2>The Conservatives are back</h2>
<p>The story of the night has been the performance of the Conservatives in constituencies across Scotland, taking seven first-past-the-post seats compared to three last time, including their leader Ruth Davidson in Edinburgh Central. As results from Glasgow and the surrounding area came in, it was clear the party was going to make gains, increasing its share of the vote by around ten percentage points in some seats where it has struggled in recent decades. The Conservatives also made significant gains from Labour in Eastwood and Dumfriesshire and from the SNP in Edinburgh Central and Aberdeenshire West. </p>
<p>In North East Fife, a Lib Dem gain from the SNP, the Conservatives’ share of the vote fell slightly. Only in Ornkey did that also happen. In Edinburgh Western, another Lib Dem gain from the SNP, the Conservative increase was minimal. It perhaps signifies a willingness for Conservative voters to back the Lib Dems in these seats.</p>
<p>The Conservatives did well in the list seats, too. They won three MSPs in Central Scotland, by no means a region that is typically sympathetic to the Conservatives, and four in North East Scotland, helping keep the SNP off the list altogether. The party also won two seats in the Glasgow region and three in Highlands and Islands. Nationally, the party has increased its share of the vote by 8.1 points to 22%, only 0.6 points behind Labour.</p>
<h2>The battle for fourth</h2>
<p>The lists meanwhile helped the Scottish Greens to overtake the Liberal Democrats to become the fourth party of Holyrood, with six seats. Added to the SNP seats this does mean that the pro-independence parties retain a majority. </p>
<p>Yet the Greens are one MSP short of their 2003-07 heyday, and have achieved fewer than some polls <a href="https://theconversation.com/scottish-election-2016-why-next-parliament-will-be-anything-but-dull-58677">were predicting</a>. They had a slightly disappointing showing in Glasgow by managing only one MSP in the form of Patrick Harvie, but in Lothian they picked up two seats, as well one in both Mid Scotland and Fife, Highlands and Islands and West of Scotland. </p>
<p>Despite another disappointing night in Scotland for the Lib Dems, there were a couple of surprises. Aside from holding both Orkney and Shetland, the party managed to gain two seats from the SNP. In North East Fife, the party’s leader, Willie Rennie, ran out the comfortable winner, while the party also won Edinburgh Western. In both seats there appears to have been significant tactical voting, with the Liberal Democrats likely benefiting from Conservative defectors. Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.thenational.scot/politics/ukips-david-coburn-tipped-to-take-partys-first-seat-in-holyrood-despite-embarrassing-gaffes.16988">predictions</a> that UKIP might pick up a seat came to nothing. </p>
<h2>The big picture</h2>
<p>The election seems to have reflected the divisions in Scotland over the constitution and class. In areas that are more deprived and traditionally working class and which had a high Yes vote in the independence referendum, the pattern is broadly strong support for the SNP coupled with decline in the Labour vote. </p>
<p>In areas that are more middle class and which voted No in the referendum, the Conservatives have done particularly well apart from a couple of exceptions, namely the Liberal Democrat gains on the mainland. The Conservatives’ framing themselves as a firm unionist opposition to the SNP appears, at least on the surface, to have had some impact. Within this structural fusion of class and constitutional politics, Scottish Labour is struggling to articulate a vision that fits into this new reality.</p>
<p>The SNP will seek to govern as a minority administration, like it did in the 2007-11 parliament. This opens up opportunities for the other parties to do deals in return for supporting the government’s legislation. Although on the face of it one would think the Greens would be the natural party for the SNP to do business with, there is quite some distance between them on issues such as taxation. </p>
<p>During the 2007-11 parliament, the SNP did quite a few deals with the Conservatives – passing the budget in return for increased police numbers, for example. It will be interesting to see to what extent we see a repeat this time around – and whether the nationalists continue to treat Labour as their primary enemy. And although the result is something of a disappointment for the SNP, it must be remembered that the Scottish parliament was designed to be a place where overall majorities were pretty much impossible. We will probably look back on the 2011-2016 parliament as an aberration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59007/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig McAngus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new normal for Nicola – minority rule once more.Craig McAngus, Lecturer in Politics, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/588352016-05-04T12:36:05Z2016-05-04T12:36:05ZScottish land reforms huff and puff, but will they blow anyone away?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121208/original/image-20160504-1305-jnvoko.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Same as it ever was: Kyleakin Castle on Skye.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/oliver_clarke/15356193027/in/photolist-poYvbK-dYe1f6-qmgBXK-rPrTfA-pA1pg7-gU752N-qQDayK-qyLJfi-oAyhKh-pMwKsK-pj3r3i-pTWoMS-aAZt8d-dJ43Ez-h3F6rs-pzawed-scpy8h-qxP7Nb-sfH4nn-qvmxk6-dt5LsA-dyAFqE-oLs596-6vvEBv-qyEsN9-nh7dMv-no9T6k-hX4F7X-nFtixo-qyEsAA-cRR8ud-dcQzWi-oFjHBH-pGmeLk-9D3qeG-qmVHcX-q6qcr6-e3y1PF-bxp2KM-ojnaJn-phKVq5-hCaXgq-oNQoBZ-daq3BZ-rgoqJY-bF7bP8-5Kp6y5-g26ngf-6wKM3J-pnvxHX">Oliver Clarke</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Scotland’s <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2016/18/contents/enacted">new land laws</a> were approved this year, it marked the end of a process that has run for most of the current five-year parliament. Landownership was arguably ripe for change: in egalitarian Scotland, <a href="http://www.ckdgalbraith.co.uk/blog/right-buy-land-further-sustainable-development">a reported</a> 50% of private rural land is owned by fewer than 500 people and entities, and landownership has not been liberated <a href="https://theconversation.com/nobility-may-be-up-in-arms-but-scotlands-land-reforms-look-fairly-tame-46100">in the way that</a> it has in some nearby countries. </p>
<p>This was not Holyrood’s first dalliance with the subject. Previous <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2003/2/contents">reforms in 2003</a> gave everyone access to Scotland’s outdoors, even without an owner’s prior consent, provided it is taken responsibly and subject to certain exclusions. It also gave communities some rights over local land, including a right of first refusal in rural areas and a right to buy in the crofting areas of the north and west of Scotland. </p>
<p>Important as those innovations were, some called for more reform. They were answered in part <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2015/6/contents/enacted">by rules</a> introduced last year to further empower communities by entitling them to participate in numerous local decisions and giving them a new right of acquisition for abandoned, neglected or environmentally mismanaged land. It also widened the right of first refusal into Scotland’s cities. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121211/original/image-20160504-19860-1pezg0d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Crofting rights were an earlier priority.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&autocomplete_id=&searchterm=scottish%20land&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=289636874">Duncan Andison</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What the new rules do</h2>
<p>Now comes the <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/CurrentCommittees/90754.aspx">Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2016</a>. In some cases it could directly force a change of landowner, either through a community buying land to further sustainable development, or by allowing certain types of agricultural tenant to buy land where the landlord is in material breach of a court order or arbitration award. (As I’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/nobility-may-be-up-in-arms-but-scotlands-land-reforms-look-fairly-tame-46100">explained before</a>, this doesn’t quite go as far as compulsory purchase orders.)</p>
<p>There is a boost to transparency of ownership through new rules about disclosing the controlling shareholder in a landowning entity. Coupled with an existing <a href="https://www.ros.gov.uk/about-us/land-register-completion">drive to</a> complete the map-based Land Register of Scotland by 2024, which will improve accessibility of information about the land itself, this will make it harder for operators registered in offshore tax havens to hide who directs their Scottish land holdings. </p>
<p>Landowners now have a decision to make about making their land available for shooting, as the new act removes rate reliefs on such activities. Whether they still allow shooting will of course depend on whether they can afford the rates, and also whether they are eligible for other offsetting reliefs (such as <a href="https://www.mygov.scot/business-rates-relief/">those for small business</a>). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/121209/original/image-20160504-27756-1xjuoiq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dear deer.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/Red_Deer_Stag_Wollaton_Park.JPG">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are some important reforms to farm tenancies regarding matters like rent review, tenancy transfers and inheritance. They don’t enable tenants to pass their lease to absolutely anyone, but a reform introduced in the latter stages of the bill’s passage through Holyrood will allow transfer to “an individual who is a new entrant to, or who is progressing in, farming” in certain circumstances. That procedure is convoluted and controversial, so much so that there have been indications that landowners may <a href="http://www.scottishlandandestates.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4855:landowners-highlight-fears-for-future-of-tenant-farming-sector&catid=71:national&Itemid=107">challenge the rules on human rights grounds</a>. </p>
<p>Landlords will also in future be measured against a “land rights and responsibilities statement”, and there are new guidelines for how they should engage with local communities when important decisions are made. And the whole regime will be overseen by the new Scottish Land Commission, which will also have a role in ensuring land reform stays in the foreground of Scottish policy. </p>
<p>These reforms will undoubtedly make quite a difference to landowners, land managers, communities, tenants and Scottish society as a whole. It is <a href="https://theconversation.com/radical-land-reforms-in-scotland-are-nothing-of-the-sort-42285">difficult to</a> make a direct comparison with England, which has very different land rules, but Scotland is certainly now a little less favourable for the landowning classes. That said, the SNP government could have covered more ground still. At various points in the development of this law, there were suggestions about: a cap on landownership above a certain level; preventing entities registered outside the EU from owning land; and full compulsory sale orders. None of these appear in the legislation. </p>
<p>The Holyrood election campaign has demonstrated that many political parties are interested in further land reform: Scottish Labour’s <a href="http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/manifesto/all">manifesto says</a> the new act is “botched” and that it would look at making improvements, including ensuring land in Scotland is “registered within the EU”. The Scottish Greens <a href="https://greens.scot/blog/5-bold-commitments-from-the-scottish-greens">proclaim that</a> “Scotland can be bolder on land reform” in terms of tax and offshore ownership. </p>
<p>The Scottish parliament has gone some way towards changing the rules about landholding in Scotland. Now that the genie is out of the bottle, the debate is clearly not going to end here.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/58835/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adviser to the Scottish-government-appointed Land Reform Review Group June 2013-May 2014. Solicitor and member of the Law Society of Scotland, non-practising Solicitor in England & Wales. Fellow of the Higher Education Academy. Views are entirely his own. </span></em></p>Why the ruling classes may think twice about landownership in Scotland.Malcolm Combe, Lecturer in Law, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/579932016-04-18T14:05:12Z2016-04-18T14:05:12ZScottish election 2016: six things you need to know<p>You might be wondering if it is worth paying attention to the Scottish election, which will be held <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35813119">on May 5</a>. The result certainly looks a foregone conclusion: the ruling SNP will form a majority government for another five years. But look more closely and there’s plenty to say – both about the broad sweep of Scottish politics and the current campaign:</p>
<h2>1. SNP arc is almost complete</h2>
<p>Don’t miss the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-truths-about-scottish-politics-that-might-surprise-you-45182">monumental nature</a> of what is about to happen. Nicola Sturgeon’s victory will represent the peak of a transformation in Scottish politics since 1999 that almost no one predicted – consolidation of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13319936">SNP majority</a> of 2011. The Blair government <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/may/06/snp-alexsalmond">designed</a> a system that it was thought would prevent anyone from securing a majority. Instead of Westminster’s first-past-the-post system, the Scottish system included 56 seats from <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/guides/newsid_8227000/8227617.stm">regional lists</a> to offset some of the distribution of the 73 constituency seats. This was intended to make it more proportional, but only up to a point. </p>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/scotland">2015 UK general election</a> the SNP’s 50% share of the vote secured 56 of 59 MPs (95%). If the polls for the current election are right <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14432948.Scottish_Tories_and_Labour_neck_and_neck_in_election_race__new_poll_suggests/">to indicate</a> that the party can maintain that level of support in constituency votes, it could even secure a majority before the regional votes are counted. (<a href="http://www.electionforecast.scot">One forecast</a> predicts the SNP to get 56% or 72 of the seats, compared to Labour’s 32 and the Conservatives’ 18. <a href="http://vote.cutbot.net/forecast/2764327e">Others</a> are a bit more upbeat about the Conservatives’ hopes, while also playing up the Greens.) </p>
<p>The likelihood of an SNP majority has produced a weird game of chicken in which we all know what will happen regardless of <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/04/more-excitement-than-movement-on-the-impact-of-the-campaign-so-far/">the campaign</a> but the party leaders still dare each other to declare the result. Everyone knows that admitting defeat opens you to claims of defeatism – as Conservative leader Ruth Davidson <a href="http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/14423965.Ruth_Davidson_launches_manifesto_and_admits_defeat/">discovered</a> – while hinting at victory <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35842678">wins you</a> the “most arrogant” prize. </p>
<h2>2. The indyref stick</h2>
<p>Clearly the <a href="http://www.scotreferendum.com">Scottish independence referendum</a> did <a href="https://paulcairney.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/cairney-2015-introduction-political-quarterly.pdf">not settle</a> the constitutional debate. The main opposition parties, particularly Scottish Labour, are repeating last year’s UK election claim that the SNP will use any victory to push for a second referendum. Yet the only plausible trigger, at least in the short term, is the EU referendum: if most voters in Scotland vote to stay in, and most voters in the UK vote to leave, the first minister <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35625067">has said</a> it would “almost certainly” prompt the SNP to demand a second vote. </p>
<h2>3. Tax matters</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2016/11/contents/enacted">Greater devolution</a> has prompted much debate on how to use the so-called “Scottish rate of income tax” that became feasible on April 1 for the first time. You might have expected this campaign to have sparked a lively discussion about the benefits and costs of raising income tax to fund services, or about who should win and lose from tax changes. So far we’ve mainly seen a pedantic and (perhaps deliberately) confusing <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/14288378.display/">debate about</a> whether it would be progressive to raise income tax by 1p as <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35461968">proposed by</a> Scottish Labour; the <a href="http://www.ippr.org/news-and-media/press-releases/ippr-scotland-fresh-figures-reveal-how-much-tax-parties-plans-will-raise">likely income</a> from each 1p rise; and the <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=20661">unintended consequences</a> of greater higher-rate taxation. </p>
<p>Knowing the SNP will win the election makes it is relatively hard to take seriously the tax plans of the other parties, including Scottish Labour’s planned 1p rise and the Scottish Conservatives’ <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/mar/04/scottish-tory-leader-put-off-call-for-lower-tax-by-news-of-deeper-cuts">abandoned hope</a> to reduce it (ditto their <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/13/scottish-conservative-manifesto-strong-opposition-snp-ruth-davidson">proposal to</a> reintroduce tuition fees). Similarly, gone are the days when the Scottish Greens’ <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/12/scottish-green-party-nicola-sturgeon-tax-rich-holyrood-election">more radical</a> income and land tax plans had any chance of success.</p>
<h2>4. The SNP’s record</h2>
<p>The opposition parties <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicola-sturgeons-first-year-still-scotlands-darling-but-what-is-she-achieving-50990">have been trying</a> to maximise concerns about the performance of the NHS and Police Scotland, and the SNP’s failure to reduce the “attainment gap”, but there is little evidence to suggest that such criticism is sticking. Indeed, crises like the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/11/call-safety-review-all-edinburgh-schools-after-closures-pfi-scotland">Edinburgh PFI schools closures</a> have called into question Labour’s record on capital finance up to 2007, even though the SNP has maintained a <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7d8aac14-37a0-11e5-b05b-b01debd57852.html">similar financing model</a> in office. </p>
<p>This failure to score many hits on the SNP’s time in government is weird when you consider that one of the key factors in its 2007 and 2011 successes was the perception of the party’s competence. The SNP <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/snp-scotland-victory/">did well</a> to maintain that perception in 2011, but despite so long in government it is tempting to think that the <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/11/01/nicola-sturgeon-scotlands-most-popular-person/">popularity of Nicola Sturgeon</a> and the party’s post-referendum bump has made this less of an issue in 2016.</p>
<h2>4. Fracking silence</h2>
<p>One issue which could have hurt the SNP is fracking. There is some <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34267783">internal division</a> in the party about the Scottish government maintaining a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-34474690">moratorium</a> rather than complete ban on all shale oil and gas development. Scottish Labour <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/kezia-dugdale-i-will-outlaw-fracking-in-scotland-1-4042877">now supports</a> a ban. Yet the moratorium, along with Sturgeon’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35783026">recent description</a> of her position as “highly sceptical about fracking” and the SNP decision not to debate the issue at its annual conference, means it will probably remain a non-talking point until after the election. </p>
<h2>5. The rest</h2>
<p>The smaller parties mattered <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/visitandlearn/Education/16288.aspx">in 2003</a>, garnering 14 out of 129 seats (or 34 if you include the three independents and 17 Scottish Lib Dems). Now they have become a sideshow. The Scottish Greens, who currently have two seats, <a href="http://www.electionforecast.scot">may end up</a> with four. That could be the same as the Lib Dems, who currently have five. The <a href="https://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/ukip-scotland-leader-david-coburn-sets-record-straight">increasingly comical</a> UKIP are likely to receive none. </p>
<h2>6. Progress</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most welcome non-talking point was Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale’s <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/kezia-dugdale-scottish-labour-leader-announces-she-is-in-a-same-sex-relationship-a6965041.html">decision to</a> “share with the world that I’m in love with a woman”. She <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/kezia-dugdale-im-bowled-over-7685153">generally received</a> praise, establishing the Scottish parliament as home to an <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-scotland-35960152">unusually large number</a> of LGB party leaders. </p>
<p>There is also <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/tide-turned-for-womens-representation-scotland/">some evidence</a> to suggest that after a few false dawns, gender-based equality of selection is catching on again. This seems to have been reinforced by the three biggest parties all being led by women.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57993/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Cairney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Spoiler alert: we already know the winner.Paul Cairney, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of StirlingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.