tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/south-sudan-famine-36277/articlesSouth Sudan famine – The Conversation2023-02-12T08:36:15Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1977252023-02-12T08:36:15Z2023-02-12T08:36:15ZSouth Sudan’s oil and water give it bargaining power – but will it benefit the people?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507896/original/file-20230202-9745-760nn0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/oil-field-with-rigs-and-pumps-at-sunset-world-oil-royalty-free-image/1427900101?phrase=Anton%20Petrus&adppopup=true">Anton Petrus/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Sudan has long been one of east Africa’s most unstable states. But surging external interest in its resources and the diplomatic agility of its rulers are again underlining how pivotal the country remains to regional energy and water politics. </p>
<p>Much of Africa has spent 2022 facing <a href="https://oecd-development-matters.org/2022/04/28/collateral-damage-the-russia-ukraine-conflict-and-energy-transitions-in-least-developed-countries/">sharp increases in the costs of energy and food</a> driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the <a href="https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/currency-volatility-dollar-strength">strengthening of the US dollar</a>. </p>
<p>For states that have the potential to expand energy and food production – like South Sudan – global shortages and price hikes might offer an <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/africa-and-russia-ukraine-conflict-seizing-opportunity-crisis">opportunity</a>. The country is repositioning itself as a destination for capital flows to boost energy and food supply. </p>
<p>The country’s elites see South Sudan’s energy and water potential as leverage instruments in the region, which is likely to result in the exploitation of these resources in ways that might not benefit most citizens</p>
<p>The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, which has governed since 2011, aims to reconnect with the high hopes that accompanied the country’s independence but that disappeared when civil war erupted in 2013. A <a href="https://jmecsouthsudan.org/index.php/arcss-2015/agreement-summary/130-summary-of-the-revitalized-agreement-on-the-resolution-of-the-conflict-in-the-republic-of-south-sudan-r-arcss-12-september-2018/file">peace deal</a> signed in 2018 is still holding, despite challenges such as its <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129702">slow implementation</a> and <a href="https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-violence-in-upper-nile-and-jonglei-states-south-sudan/">continued fighting in the Upper Nile and Jonglei regions</a>. </p>
<p>Relative national stability and global economic tailwinds have fanned speculation about renewed investment. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/savannah-energy-follows-chad-deal-with-south-sudan-acquisition-2022-12-12/">British firm Savannah Energy’s decision</a> in December 2022 to buy oil fields from Malaysia’s Petronas is the latest example of surging interest in South Sudan’s resources. </p>
<p>Likewise, investors are eagerly awaiting the 2023 <a href="https://energycapitalpower.com/the-energy-minute-south-sudan-oil-power-2023/">South Sudan oil and power conference</a> to see what sort of incentives are on offer. South Sudan has been using the platform to promote investments that help stabilise the national budget. Oil accounts for up to 90% of government revenues. </p>
<p>New investment could affirm South Sudan’s status as east Africa’s largest oil producer. The country is a member of OPEC+, a grouping of oil exporting countries. It currently <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/south-sudan/305-oil-or-nothing-dealing-south-sudans-bleeding-finances">pumps an estimated 150,000 to 170,000 barrels a day</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://sudantribune.com/article267465/">Regular squabbles with Khartoum</a> over diversions of South Sudanese oil and transit fees still occur. But Juba adroitly manages relations with its northern neighbour. It depends on Sudan for transporting its crude to global markets. <a href="https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/feature/the-promise-of-oil-and-gas-in-south-sudan-81521">Petrodollars are forecast to accelerate GDP growth</a> to more than 6% in 2023.</p>
<p>Beyond oil, the country also has huge scope for increased production of food and <a href="https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2018-01/sr418-south-sudans-renewable-energy-potential-a-building-block-for-peace.pdf">renewable energy</a> like solar, wind and hydro. It has considerable potential to use the Nile for irrigation and electricity production. </p>
<p>Such projects could, <a href="https://www.academia.edu/840831/Black_Gold_for_Blue_Gold_Sudans_Oil_Ethiopias_Water_and_Regional_Integration">under specific conditions</a>, help remedy deepening regional water and electricity shortages. But plans for reviving canal dredging or dams can also <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/resistance-from-communities-on-dredging-jonglei-3985552">stoke tensions</a> in a region that already has plenty of them.</p>
<h2>Regional diplomacy</h2>
<p>Despite their preoccupation with internal conflicts, South Sudanese elites are far from passive regional actors. They have long considered the country’s resource potential an invaluable diplomatic instrument. </p>
<p>East Africa is at a critical moment. In addition to global pressures on food and energy prices, there are also intractable regional disputes. The most complex dossier remains that of Nile politics, with Ethiopia completing the <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/08/third-filling-nile-dam-heightens-ethiopia-egypt-crisis">third filling</a> of the <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/daed/article/150/4/159/107371/The-Grand-Ethiopian-Renaissance-Dam-Africa-s-Water">Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam</a> last August. </p>
<p>Egypt and Sudan oppose what they see as the Ethiopian government’s unilateral construction and filling of the dam with Nile water. But the dam’s location makes it cheaper to export power to South Sudan than it is to transport it over the Ethiopian highlands to Addis Ababa. In this context, South Sudan’s diplomatic commitments around energy and water are much sought after.</p>
<p>This gives Juba leverage. The country has been exploiting regional rivalries and fluctuations in global commodity prices. We’ve argued in a <a href="https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/publications/energy-and-water-sovereignty-south-sudan-s-regional-diplomacy-and-geopolitics-nile-basin/">recent paper</a> that the government’s energy diplomacy has allowed the ruling party to tighten its grip on power. It has also bolstered South Sudan’s ability to shape regional developments. </p>
<p>For instance, since independence President Salva Kiir has endorsed the Ethiopian dam and signalled his desire to import electricity from Ethiopia. His cabinet has repeatedly indicated its intention to ratify the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02508060.2013.744273">Cooperation Framework Agreement</a>, which Ethiopian officials see as key to the equitable and stable management of the Nile Basin. </p>
<p>But South Sudan has, at the same time, deepened relations with Ethiopia’s great rival, Egypt. Juba has solidified security ties with Cairo and solicited its assistance for infrastructure projects on the Nile and its tributaries. Such balancing is crucial to Kiir’s ability to extract support from Ethiopia, Egypt and other regional players. But his unwillingness to make hard, durable commitments leaves these powerful neighbours of South Sudan often deeply frustrated. </p>
<h2>Ignoring developmental needs</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, diplomatic agility does little to benefit the people over whom the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement governs. For all South Sudan’s trumpeted potential in water, energy and food, more than 50% of the population <a href="https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1155997/?iso3=SSD">is facing acute food insecurity</a> and barely <a href="https://www.iea.org/countries/south-sudan">1% has access to electricity</a>. A <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/south-sudan-humanitarian-needs-overview-2022-february-2022">2022 assessment</a> estimates that only 39% of the population has enough water to meet household needs. </p>
<p>Recent initiatives announced by government officials might well make existing problems worse. Resuming construction of the Jonglei canal <a href="https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/egypt-secret-nile-deal-divides-juba-3863834">is widely considered detrimental</a> to regional ecosystems, and to local livelihoods already battered by conflict and climate-related uncertainties. Similarly, a project in which <a href="https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/105395/Egypt-signs-protocol-for-construction-of-Wau-Dam-in-South">Egypt is to build a dam</a> on a branch of the Jur river has been met with scepticism over how it could contribute to South Sudanese water or food security. </p>
<p>South Sudan is receiving <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/11/21/pr22403-imf-pr-south-sudan-imf-reaches-sla-3rd-rev-smp-rcf-food-shock-window-prgrm-monitor-brd-inv">International Monetary Fund emergency financing</a> to restore some fiscal discipline while it deals with food price shocks. But the notion that such programmes constrain the government and encourage it to prioritise food (or energy) insecurity seems fanciful. </p>
<p>The track record since independence in 2011 is bleak: cereal production in 2021 was barely higher than in 2012, and the same proportion of the population was <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.H2O.BASW.ZS?locations=SS">excluded from access to basic drinking water services</a> as a decade ago (59%). South Sudan remains, by most estimates, the least electrified country on the planet. </p>
<p>Indeed, despite all the buzz about hydro-infrastructure or new oil investments, it is improbable that millions of citizens will get even part of their needs met. If the past is any guide, speculation about foreign investments will likely give the country’s elites the power to once again ignore the population.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197725/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>South Sudan’s diplomatic support around energy and water is much sought after in Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan.Harry Verhoeven, Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia UniversityFrancois Sennesael, DPhil Candidate, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/806852017-07-17T14:47:21Z2017-07-17T14:47:21ZTragedy in the Nuba Mountains: hunger and starvation are constants<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177739/original/file-20170711-14431-1jwjdxi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A brother and sister take shelter from aerial attacks in the rebel-held territory of the Nuba Mountains in South Kordofan.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Goran Tomasevic </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ever since the war between the <a href="http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?mot147">Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North</a> and the government of Sudan broke out in June 2011, the government has carried out almost daily <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/07/sudanese-beauty-queen-natalina-yaqoub-demands-end-nuba-mountain-bombing">aerial attacks</a> against civilians living in the <a href="https://www.pri.org/collections/nuba-mountains">Nuba Mountains</a>. When not killed, the people suffer horrific injuries, including sheared limbs and inner organs ground to mush.</p>
<p>The liberation movement is demanding self-determination and power-sharing for the Nuba people. The Nuba have lived in the area for thousands of years, and fought with the South during the <a href="https://sites.tufts.edu/atrocityendings/2015/08/07/sudan-2nd-civil-war-darfur/">Second Civil War (1983-2005)</a>. But, they were prevented from seceding with the rest of the South from Sudan. When the Nuba people continued to be threatened by Khartoum, they picked up weapons and formed the SPLM-N. </p>
<p>Nuba farms and stores of food are often destroyed by the aerial attacks and people are fearful of working their farms. Hunger lingers. Many are suffering from malnutrition to severe malnutrition and are dying from <a href="https://africasustainableconservation.com/2014/12/07/sudans-war-of-starvation-in-the-nuba-mountains/">starvation</a>. In places like Kao Nyaro, severe malnutrition and starvation have been a constant. </p>
<p>Despite the critical need for food, none of the organisations involved in helping people in dire need have attempted to deliver aid to the Nuba. This includes UNHCR, the World Food Program, CARE, Mercy Corps, the International Red Cross and Oxfam.</p>
<p>Because of the lack of international assistance, informal channels have <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Genocide-Attrition-Nuba-Mountains-Sudan/dp/1412847508">picked up the slack</a>. I know of four different groups who have been trucking food up since early 2012. Personally, I have made five trips up to the Nuba Mountains during the period of the war to take in as many tons of food as possible. Most of us travel through the territory controlled by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North. </p>
<p>These efforts have resulted in the delivery of hundreds of tons of food and a wide array of medicines and medical devices. All of this has been accomplished by travelling over dusty, rutted roads and in the face of the daily aerial attacks by the Sudanese government. Still, the Nuba continue to suffer from the entire gamut of hunger.</p>
<p>Exactly why international organisations and individual states have not stepped up to help the Nuba remains unclear. But various reasons have been floated by those involved in the informal efforts. The main reason could be the international community’s efforts not to irritate Sudanese President Omar al Bashir, as well as fears that the fight against terrorist groups in the region could be compromised.</p>
<h2>World silent amid starvation and slaughter</h2>
<p>The biggest fear is that al-Bashir could easily decide to return to war if he believes that Sudan is being toyed with by the international community. </p>
<p>Under the <a href="http://www.un.org/press/en/2005/sc8306.doc.htm">Comprehensive Peace Agreement</a>, which was signed following the Second Sudanese War, al-Bashir agreed to allow the people of the south to vote in a referendum on independence. People resoundingly voted to secede from Sudan, and to establish the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jul/08/south-sudan-independence-history">Republic of South Sudan</a>. If the international community, in al-Bashir’s eyes, brazenly enters Sudan without Khartoum’s permission, thus trumping its sovereignty, al-Bashir could do everything in his power to attempt to reclaim the land which was ripped from Sudan. </p>
<p>There are other potential reasons too. Among them are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>The international community has been wont to accommodate Khartoum on the grounds that it’s not controlled by terrorist organisations such as Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Al-Shabaab.</p></li>
<li><p>The US government has been engaged in a quid pro quo with Sudan: if Sudan allows the US to operate its war against terrorism on its territory – including small drone bases in the country – Washington will go easy on the country. Former President Barack Obama’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-administration-to-lift-some-sanctions-against-sudan/2017/01/12/4a312de0-d91e-11e6-b8b2-cb5164beba6b_story.html?utm_term=.fee4f0563501">decision</a> to lift some sanctions against Khartoum might constitute evidence of this.</p></li>
<li><p>Humanitarian groups may assume that they need military escorts to get food to the Nuba Mountains but have not been sure whether the international community would step up to the plate.</p></li>
<li><p>Air drops aren’t feasible because the Sudanese government controls the skies of South Kordofan and Blue Nile States with Sukhoi supersonic all-weather attack aircraft.</p></li>
<li><p>Diplomats believe (or want to believe) that six years into the Nuba crisis negotiations would eventually result in a breakthrough.</p></li>
<li><p>Compassion fatigue has set in given that aid organisations have their hands full dealing with other major crises. </p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177740/original/file-20170711-14428-wyfutm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177740/original/file-20170711-14428-wyfutm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177740/original/file-20170711-14428-wyfutm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177740/original/file-20170711-14428-wyfutm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177740/original/file-20170711-14428-wyfutm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177740/original/file-20170711-14428-wyfutm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177740/original/file-20170711-14428-wyfutm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Children flee with their family’s belongings to Yida refugee camp in South Sudan to escape aerial bombardment of their Nuba Mountains homes in South Kordofan. .</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Goran Tomasevic</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Still, the situation remains puzzling. A host of international aid groups are actively providing aid to countless numbers of people in at least a dozen crisis areas that are equally, if not more dangerous. Oxfam and CARE, for example, work in The Republic of South Sudan where a treacherous war rages. The two organisations, together with Mercy Corps and the International Red Cross, are also active in Syria.</p>
<p>Four organisations – Oxfam, CARE, Mercy Corps, the International Red Cross – are also active in <a href="http://www.givespot.com/ask/afghanistan.htm">Afghanistan</a> and the <a href="http://dlca.logcluster.org/display/public/DLCA/4.2+Democratic+Republic+of+Congo+Humanitarian+Agency+Contact+List;jsessionid=980686D4CE9CC7FB1D34621AD90B4173">Democratic Republic of the Congo</a>. All, except Oxfam, are also working in Somalia and Yemen.</p>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>The US has broached the idea to the SPLA and Khartoum about allowing food to be flown from Khartoum to the Nuba Mountains. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), however, demands that 20% be delivered <a href="https://nubareports.org/sudan-insider-all-talk-no-humanitarian-action/">through Ethiopia</a>, thus allowing them to control the delivery. The SPLM-N not only fear Khartoum may poison the food, but also said it wants to be sure at least some of the food gets to the region, citing Khartoum’s manipulation of aid deliveries to Darfur, where Khartoum persistently <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/relief-and-politics-seeking-aid-access-in-sudans_us_589c8287e4b02bbb1816c385">refused access to the region</a>.</p>
<p>For now, though, both groups, the SPLM-N and Khartoum, are at a stand-off. For the sake of the health and lives of Nuba civilians, the stand-off needs to be solved sooner than later.</p>
<p><em>Samuel Totten, a scholar of genocide studies, has made five trips to the Nuba Mountains. His latest book is: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sudans-Mountains-People-Under-Siege/dp/1476667225">Sudan’s Nuba Mountains People Under Siege: Accounts by Humanitarians in the Battle Zone</a></em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80685/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samuel Totten does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The world has turned its back on the Nuba people of Sudan. Despite the critical need for food, none of the organisations involved in helping people in dire need have attempted to deliver aid to them.Samuel Totten, Professor Emeritus, University of ArkansasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/735872017-03-07T03:14:01Z2017-03-07T03:14:01ZFamines in the 21st century? It’s not for lack of food<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159602/original/image-20170306-20756-8n4y6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sorting bags of food dropped by air from a World Food Programme plane in Padeah, South Sudan, March 1, 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/South-Sudan-Facing-Famine/39af4ff08eac4832836edbdea66a3015/6/0">AP Photo/Sam Mednick</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Famine killed <a href="http://www.ids.ac.uk/publication/famine-in-the-twentieth-century">nearly 75 million people</a> in the 20th century, but had virtually disappeared in recent decades. Now, suddenly, it is back. In late February a famine was declared in <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39025927">South Sudan</a>, and warnings of famine have also recently been issued for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/feb/12/famine-looms-four-countries-aid-system-struggles-yemen-south-sudan-nigeria-somalia">Somalia, Nigeria and Yemen</a>. </p>
<p>Moreover, in January the <a href="https://www.fews.net/">Famine Early Warning System</a> (FEWSNET) – a U.S. government-funded organization created in 1985 specifically to predict famines and humanitarian emergencies – estimated that <a href="http://www.fews.net/global/alert/january-25-2017">70 million people</a> affected by conflicts or disasters worldwide will need food assistance in 2017. This number has increased by nearly 50 percent in just the past two years. </p>
<p>What explains this rapid rise in the number of people who need emergency food assistance? And why, in an era of <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4646e.pdf">declining poverty and hunger</a> worldwide, are we suddenly facing four potential famines in unconnected countries?</p>
<h2>What are famines?</h2>
<p>Famines are extreme events in which large populations lack adequate access to food, leading to widespread malnutrition and deaths. More of these deaths are caused by <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/OBO/9780199846733-0083">infectious disease than starvation</a> because severe malnutrition compromises human immune systems. This makes people much more susceptible to killer diseases such as measles, or even common conditions such as diarrhea. Young children are especially vulnerable.</p>
<p>Experts now agree on <a href="http://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC-Manual-2-Interactive.pdf">three characteristics</a> that define a famine:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>At least 20 percent of households in a given group face extreme food deficits, with no ability to cope; </p></li>
<li><p>At least 30 percent of children in a given group are acutely malnourished, meaning that their weight is dangerously low compared to their height; and</p></li>
<li><p>Mortality rates exceed two people per 10,000 population per day. For comparison, a noncrisis rate in contemporary sub-Saharan Africa would be about 0.3.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>People affected by famine may also experience other impacts, including widespread hunger, loss of assets, the breakdown of social support networks, distress migration and destitution. </p>
<p>The last large-scale famines affected the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/703958.stm">Horn of Africa</a> in 1984-85 and 1992, and <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/1999/08/politics-famine-north-korea">North Korea</a> in the mid-1990s. Since that time, only one large-scale famine has occurred: a devastating crisis in southern Somalia in 2011 that killed a quarter of a million people. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159607/original/image-20170306-20753-1s28rgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159607/original/image-20170306-20753-1s28rgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159607/original/image-20170306-20753-1s28rgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159607/original/image-20170306-20753-1s28rgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159607/original/image-20170306-20753-1s28rgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159607/original/image-20170306-20753-1s28rgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159607/original/image-20170306-20753-1s28rgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159607/original/image-20170306-20753-1s28rgw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Click to zoom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/Food_assistance_needs_2017.pdf">Famine Early Warning Systems Network</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Human-made emergencies</h2>
<p>For many years experts believed that famines were caused by a shortfall in food availability. Then in 1981 economist/philosopher Amartya Sen published “<a href="http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/0198284632.001.0001/acprof-9780198284635">Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation</a>,” which showed that famines actually resulted when food was available but some groups could not access it. Although many people believe today that famines occur mostly in Africa, the deadliest famines of the 20th century were in Europe (Ukraine) and Asia (China).</p>
<p>Today we recognize famines happen only with some degree of human complicity. Some analysts assert that famines are <a href="https://boydellandbrewer.com/famine-crimes-pb.html">crimes of either commission or omission</a>, because human decisions and actions determine whether a crisis deteriorates into a full-blown famine. They also contend that we cannot eradicate famine without holding people who cause it accountable. </p>
<p>Famines typically have multiple causes. They can include climatic factors such as drought, economic shocks such as rapid inflation, and violent conflict or other political causes. Their impacts are more severe when underlying factors make some groups more vulnerable. </p>
<p>Mortality during famines may be exacerbated by conflict and displacement. Deliberately cutting off access to food is often a means of war. It is not a coincidence that the threat of famine in South Sudan, northeastern Nigeria, Yemen and Somalia is occurring in the midst of protracted, violent conflicts. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159605/original/image-20170306-20765-a5x8cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159605/original/image-20170306-20765-a5x8cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159605/original/image-20170306-20765-a5x8cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159605/original/image-20170306-20765-a5x8cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159605/original/image-20170306-20765-a5x8cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159605/original/image-20170306-20765-a5x8cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159605/original/image-20170306-20765-a5x8cl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Families displaced in attacks by Boko Haram insurgents shelter behind a church in Yola, Nigeria, June 16, 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/eu_echo/19124021046/in/photolist-v8VBbN-v8Vzpb-nw88tB-vbxzrM-vaJjVs-uedPbw-e6SC69-e6SC3N-e6LYV2-e6SC53-e6LYNz-ntz5xL-ng6A1d-bZXwtu-oWjWqS-nif1Zc-pto8pd-qo6dCs-pto7DW-vbePoV-uTMywT-v8W23q-nzd2zM-vaJpEs-QRTPUG-uTERyS-v8VLKs-uTMMAZ-uep6x8-uTEMGo-vbfcK8-uTNcme-vbxLCe-vbxGz4-nFSyDX-ueekXm-od8JwA-nH2PYS-nimS9N-nx2UsS-nfyx6a-sce7SA-nyRZ7k-s51JDo-qz9ZmK-vaJw2W-qo66nW-ueoJhn-nimiSH-p6vQv5">EU/ECHO/Isabel Coello/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/famine-in-somalia-9780190499389?cc=us&lang=en&">2011 famine in Somalia</a> was caused by a severe drought, a dramatic spike in the cost of food and devastating loss of purchasing power, and conflict. These occurred on top of long-term environmental degradation, deteriorating opportunities in agricultural and pastoral livelihoods, and the absence of a central state authority.</p>
<p>One party to the conflict, <a href="https://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/al_shabaab.html">Al Shabaab</a>, was an armed group that the United States and other countries labeled as a foreign terrorist organization. Al Shabaab controlled people’s movements and access to markets, and excluded or directly threatened many humanitarian agencies. </p>
<p>External donor governments prioritized containing the terrorist threat, and warned that any stolen or diverted aid that ended up in the hands of Al Shabaab would be <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/famine-in-somalia-9780190499389?cc=us&lang=en&">treated as a criminal offense</a>. These policies made it extremely difficult for humanitarian agencies to assist groups affected by the famine.</p>
<p>This combination of human-made factors thwarted adequate prevention or response measures until the famine declaration provoked a more vigorous response. By then, the number of people being killed by the famine had already peaked. Not surprisingly, the most marginalized groups within Somali society were the worst affected. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159395/original/image-20170305-29032-1w8gp0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159395/original/image-20170305-29032-1w8gp0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159395/original/image-20170305-29032-1w8gp0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159395/original/image-20170305-29032-1w8gp0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159395/original/image-20170305-29032-1w8gp0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159395/original/image-20170305-29032-1w8gp0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159395/original/image-20170305-29032-1w8gp0p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Humanitarian assistance to Somalia in 2011-2012 scaled up mostly after deaths had already peaked.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Daniel Maxwell</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Famines are recurring today because once again, conflicts and natural disasters such as drought are converging in vulnerable areas. Shortened recovery cycles between recurrent crises – due partly to climate change – leave ever-larger groups more vulnerable. </p>
<h2>Better warning systems</h2>
<p>Famines result from cumulative processes we can observe and predict. That means we can prevent them through timely public action. </p>
<p>Early warning systems such as FEWSNET monitor agricultural production and rainfall trends, commodity markets and price trends, and conflicts. They also track trends in food access, malnutrition or mortality, and labor migration among at-risk populations. </p>
<p>Governments and humanitarian agencies can use this information to prevent or limit famines. <a href="http://www.tandfebooks.com/isbn/9780203799536">Since the 1950s</a>, food aid has been the main tool for responding to famines. Producer countries ship food to countries in crisis, and humanitarian organizations like the <a href="http://www1.wfp.org/">World Food Programme</a> deliver it to affected populations.</p>
<p>Now we are paying more attention to protecting people’s livelihoods to help them cope with crisis and recover afterwards. Cash transfers have become the primary form of aid, although the U.S. government also provides food aid.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.unicef.org/media/files/Position_Paper_Ready-to-use_therapeutic_food_for_children_with_severe_acute_malnutrition__June_2013.pdf">Ready-to-use therapeutic foods</a> – high-energy pastes typically made from peanuts, oils, sugar and milk powder – have significantly improved treatment of acutely malnourished children. <a href="http://odihpn.org/resources/emergency-food-security-interventions/">Actions in other sectors</a>, including water and health, are helping the humanitarian community prevent and respond to famines.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159606/original/image-20170306-20749-m9usvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159606/original/image-20170306-20749-m9usvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159606/original/image-20170306-20749-m9usvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159606/original/image-20170306-20749-m9usvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159606/original/image-20170306-20749-m9usvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159606/original/image-20170306-20749-m9usvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159606/original/image-20170306-20749-m9usvm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Packaging ready-to-use therapeutic food doses for a supplemental feeding program in Afghanistan, Oct. 29, 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ready_to_Use_Therapeutic_Food_DVIDS222343.jpg">USAF Master Sgt. Tracy DeMarco/Wikipedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Acting in time</h2>
<p>Nonetheless, even when famines and food access crises are predicted, governments, donors and humanitarian agencies often fail to head them off – a pattern known as the “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2012.07.006">early warning/late response</a>” problem. Sometimes it is due to negligence or bureaucratic inertia. More frequently there are political reasons, or armed conflict blocks access to affected populations. And donor nation policies may limit where assistance can go for political and security reasons.</p>
<p>Today the situation is urgent. Humanitarian aid budgets have not kept up with needs in recent years.</p>
<p>Some governments in affected countries and donor nations are gearing up responsibly to meet this problem. Others are not, or are sending unclear signals. While the U.S. is responding to the current crisis, foreign aid is one of many areas in which the Trump administration has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/feb/27/trump-first-budget-us-foreign-aid">proposed major cuts</a>. </p>
<p>Even when enough resources are available, more must be done to deliver it to people who need it. This means working out measures to ensure access before crises deteriorate into famine. National governments and even rebel groups should renew their commitment to <a href="https://www.icrc.org/eng/assets/files/other/what_is_ihl.pdf">International Humanitarian Law</a>, which guarantees civilians caught in conflict the right to assistance, expressly forbids the use of food as a weapon of warfare and provides support for efforts to prevent and resolve conflicts. Timely action based on early warning can avert major crises and save resources and lives – but it requires political commitment and constant vigilance.</p>
<p><em>Peter Hailey, founding director of the Centre for Humanitarian Change in Nairobi and former Chief of Nutrition for UNICEF Somalia, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Maxwell has consulted for the World Food Program, and is a former staff member of CARE International, both of which provide food assistance to emergency affected populations.
One of his research programs, in 2008-09, was funded by WFP. He is a member of the Emergency Review Committee, a group that reviews famine analyses prior to any declaration. This group is activated by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Several of his research programs have been funded by USAID, which is the US donor agency that provides humanitarian and food assistance. One of his studies was funded by DFID, which is the UK donor agency that provides humanitarian and food assistance.</span></em></p>At a time when poverty and hunger levels are declining around the world, famine is recurring, driven by conflicts and natural disasters. But timely action by governments and aid groups can save lives.Daniel Maxwell, Henry J. Leir Professor in Food Security, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/733802017-03-01T15:00:01Z2017-03-01T15:00:01ZHow South Sudan’s warlords triggered extreme hunger in a land of plenty<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158498/original/image-20170227-26340-8bg3ka.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman waits to be registered at a food distribution centre run by the United Nations World Food Programme in Thonyor, Leer state, South Sudan. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siegfried Modola</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A man-made famine? That question has been on the lips a lot in recent days after it was <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=56205#.WLA0SW997IU">declared</a> in South Sudan. The last time this happened in Africa, or anywhere, was in <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=39086#.WLA0GW997IU">Somalia</a> in 2011.</p>
<p>The classification of a famine as man-made is applied to severe hunger arising from a set of foreseeable, and therefore avoidable, circumstances. According to criteria set down by the United Nations a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-39025927">famine</a> is declared in an area when at least 20% of households are viewed as being exposed to extreme food shortages, 30% are malnourished and deaths from hunger has reached two persons a day for every 10,000. </p>
<p>Famines can result from natural or man-made causes. Natural causes include droughts, plant disease, insect plagues, floods and earthquakes. A prolonged drought is behind the recent warning of <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/rewind/2017/01/crisis-horn-africa-somalia-famine-170117081319175.html">potential famine</a> in Somalia by the World Food Programme.</p>
<p>The human causes of famine include extreme poverty, war, deliberate crop destruction and the inefficient distribution of food. South Sudan’s predicament falls square under this category. There have been no major droughts, flooding or other natural catastrophe reported. Instead a <a href="http://www.eurasiareview.com/17022016-long-and-dark-road-to-peace-the-future-of-south-sudan-analysis/">three year conflict</a> that has engulfed the country, combined with high food prices, economic disruption and low agricultural production has resulted in UN and the government of South Sudan declaring a famine in the country.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/famine-declared-part-south-sudan-unity-state-170220081516802.html">According</a> to the head of the World Food Programme, the avoidable conflict between the main political protagonists is solely to blame. Years of conflict have created a situation in which many women, children and the elderly are suffering needlessly and have no access to <a href="https://www.unicef.org/appeals/south_sudan.html">food or water</a>. </p>
<p>High food prices, economic disruption and low agricultural production have resulted in the large areas becoming <a href="http://www1.wfp.org/countries/south-sudan">“food insecure”</a>. The situation could not have come at a more difficult time. Years of conflict have crippled the economy and hammered the value of its currency. Severe inflation has seen the value of its currency plummet 800% in the past year alone. This has made food <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/south-sudan/inflation-cpi">unaffordable</a> for many families. </p>
<p>Despite the deteriorating situation the government of South Sudan has been using its limited resources to <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/southsudan-security-un-exclusive-idINKCN11E2P8">buy weapons</a>, increase the number of states, pay military wages and wage war on civilians.</p>
<h2>Conflict sows seeds of hunger</h2>
<p>Significant progress in reducing global hunger has been achieved over the past 30 years. But the impact of conflict on food production and citizens ability to feed themselves is often underestimated. This was highlighted in a <a href="http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/21483/1/sp06je04.pdf">study</a> that found that </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“civil wars and conflicts are detrimental to food security, but the negative effects are more severe for countries unable to make available for their citizens the minimum dietary energy requirement under which a country is qualified for food aid” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is true of South Sudan, which can <a href="http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp252353.pdf?iframe">feed itself</a> in peace time. Just six months ago, many parts of the country were bustling with agricultural activity, producing enough food for the local populations. </p>
<p>The medium sized town of Yei is a good example. Locals report an inability to cultivate their land since the recent escalation of fighting. A town once seen as a place where <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/01/south-sudan-coffee-time-war-160105132312753.html">coffee bean production</a> was on the rise is now a place where farmers no longer venture out. </p>
<p>It’s also <a href="https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/170124_Simmons_RecurringStorms_Web.pdf?wmBiEmhhIrScAX8ew4QTPfzLpiDn6OKL">likely</a> that Yemen, Nigeria, and Somalia, could declare a famine in the next few months. It’s no coincidence that those countries are also embroiled in widespread or localised armed conflict. </p>
<h2>Deteriorating situation</h2>
<p>More than 100,000 people in two counties of Unity state are experiencing famine. This number could rise as an additional one million South Sudanese are on the <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/famine-declared-part-south-sudans-unity-state-45605323">brink</a> of starvation. Central Equatoria state, traditionally South Sudan’s breadbasket, has been hit by ethnically targeted killings that have disrupted agricultural production.</p>
<p>Between 40%-50% of South Sudan’s population are expected to be severely food insecure and at risk of death in the <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/indonesia/the-jakarta-pos%0At/20170221/281848643367301">coming months</a>. Over 250,000 children are severely <a href="https://www.unicef.org/appeals/sudan.html">malnourished</a> according to UNICEF and these are number where UNICEF has access to. </p>
<p>Yet the government does not seem to want to address the underlying causes of the famine. In fact it’s unclear what its overall plan is. </p>
<p>It is <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-02/17/c_136064966.htm">relocating</a> by air internally displaced people through Juba into Malakal. The Dinka-controlled government’s strategy is not entirely clear. But some of my informants claim that the objective is to rid the capital of rival ethnic groups that could pose a direct threat to the seat of government in Juba. </p>
<p>Adding to this, the new Special Representative for South Sudan has raised <a href="http://www.unmultimedia.org/radio/english/2017/02/un-concerned-for-displaced-in-south-sudans-upper-nile-region/#.WLQo3xKLSRs">concerns</a> over some 20,000 internally displaced people on the West bank of the Nile in the Upper Nile region as a “real problem.” These <a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=56184#.WKv00hKLSRs">fleeing</a> civilians are victims of government efforts to consolidate power centrally and push certain ethnic groups who are not aligned to the government away from the centre. </p>
<h2>Food aid restricted</h2>
<p>The UN has repeatedly warned that government forces are <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/south-sudan-famine-latest-africa-civil-war-announce-government-united-nations-un-east-a7589616.html">blocking</a> the delivery of food aid to affected areas. </p>
<p>South Sudan’s government wouldn’t be the first to have done this. In 2012 the <a href="http://viewsweek.com/world/food-as-a-weapon-of-war/">Rohingya</a> in Myanmar who were left to starve amidst sectarian violence with local Buddhist communities. In 2011 it was Sudan starving its people in the Nuba mountain region. More recently in Syria the government was allegedly targeting bakeries, hitting civilians waiting to buy food. </p>
<p>According to the Geneva Convention <a href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume%201125/volume-1125-i-17512-english.pdf">treaty</a> on non-international armed conflicts a government can legally restrict food access for a short-term period if it is militarily necessary. This is a very narrow exception. It cannot and should not be used to punish civilians for their affiliation to the conflict and it cannot be used on a biased basis. And such restrictions must not result in starvation of the civilians. </p>
<h2>Famine and political unrest</h2>
<p>The situation in South Sudan is likely to get worse. The ongoing conflict is likely to escalate as the number of smaller armed groups rises on the back of more localised <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/dec/07/south-sudan-horrific-attacks-prompt-communities-take-arms">self-militias</a> being set up. In the light of this government military action will escalate.</p>
<p>This new dimension in South Sudan’s conflict increases in the chances of further political turmoil and further narrows the window of peace for the world’s youngest nation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73380/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew E. Yaw Tchie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nearly half of South Sudan’s population could be severely food insecure and at risk of death in the coming months because of the avoidable acts of civil war in a land of plenty.Andrew E. Yaw Tchie, Conflict Advisor, Ph.D. candidate and Associate Fellow, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.