tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/traffic-accidents-10051/articles
Traffic accidents – The Conversation
2023-02-15T13:23:55Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/199840
2023-02-15T13:23:55Z
2023-02-15T13:23:55Z
Super Bowl car ads sell Americans the idea that new tech will protect them
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510122/original/file-20230214-18-a4wi35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">At the dawn of the car era, carmakers needed to allay fears that pedestrian lives were at risk.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/pnp/ppmsca/67900/67974v.jpg">Library of Congress</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Super Bowl ads tend to kick off trends, and it looks like the automotive industry will ramp up its pitch for electric vehicles after <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jymEz9xkPQ">giving them center stage</a>. Even Tesla, which has never run a Super Bowl ad, managed to sneak its Model Y <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z64_BllmVKc&feature=youtu.be">into a Popeyes commercial</a>, while Ram boasted that its new electric pickup truck’s smart technology solved the problems of “<a href="https://youtu.be/6iaUoJUdTk4">premature electrification</a>” that left consumers unsatisfied.</p>
<p>But it was <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/02/13/tesla-elon-musk-fsd-tech-ceo-spent-almost-600000-on-a-super-bowl-ad-to-warn-america-about-teslas-self-driving-technology/">an ad paid for by the Dawn Project</a>, <a href="https://tcrn.ch/3xiqwL9">a safety advocacy group</a>, that will likely trigger a fleet of ads this year to reassure consumers that EV technology is safe.</p>
<p>In it, Tesla’s self-driving cars run down child-sized mannequins. Tesla CEO Elon Musk shrugged off the ad, tweeting that even bad publicity would end up promoting <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1624873453949014017?s=20&t=Q1c1ZIsKz9yYUKz6QW3cTw">Tesla’s self-driving cars</a>. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.bellisario.psu.edu/people/individual/matthew-jordan">As a media scholar</a> interested in how cultures deal with disruptive technology, I see similarities between today’s concerns over EVs and the early days of cars.</p>
<p>Back then, the public conversation usually contained a mix of optimism and fear. Then automakers turned to advertising to allay those fears.</p>
<h2>Sound signals and safety</h2>
<p>As it happens, advertising safer technology is as old as the automotive industry.</p>
<p>Because automobiles can endanger human life, engineers have long been trying to solve their safety problems. In the early 20th century, along with better brakes, headlights and steering wheels, <a href="https://www.upress.virginia.edu/title/5866/">engineers promised that advances in sound signaling technology</a> – the car horn – would make driving safer by letting people know a car was coming.</p>
<p>In my new book, “<a href="https://www.upress.virginia.edu/title/5866/">Danger Sound Klaxon! The Horn That Changed History</a>,” I tell the story of early sound signals. At first, engineers adapted the bells, gongs and whistles from other types of conveyances to automobiles. But eventually the industry settled on the squeeze bulb horn – the kind that makes a “honk honk” noise. </p>
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Squeeze Bulb Horn.
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<p>The only issue? In crowded streets, they weren’t loud enough to hear. </p>
<p>So in 1909, a new horn from the Lovell-McConnell company called the Klaxon solved that problem, promising drivers the ability, with just the touch of an electric button, to let loose a metallic “aaOOga” sound so loud that no one could miss it. They quickly set to work to convince the public that their patented noisy technology made driving safer.</p>
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Klaxon horn.
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<p>Klaxon’s ad campaign used a new technique called “<a href="https://newleftreview.org/issues/i4/articles/raymond-williams-the-magic-system">situational advertising</a>” that put readers in imaginary situations where they were given a choice. Many of these ads, run in some of the era’s most popular magazines, asked readers to consider the best way to protect themselves from other people’s carelessness. </p>
<p>One Klaxon ad from a 1910 issue of the Saturday Evening Post portrays a distracted pedestrian stepping in front of a car in New York City’s Herald Square with the tag line “You Can’t Change Human Nature.”</p>
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<img alt="An advertisement of a man absentmindedly walking in front of a street car." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510160/original/file-20230214-27-943h4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The car industry saw human nature as a potential obstacle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ia902201.us.archive.org/3/items/saturdayeveningp1832unse/saturdayeveningp1832unse.pdf">The Internet Archive</a></span>
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<p>“The auto must have a signal that really warns,” <a href="https://ia902201.us.archive.org/3/items/saturdayeveningp1832unse/saturdayeveningp1832unse.pdf">reads the copy</a>. “If all minds were always alert – if children could protect themselves – if the weak were strong, there would be no need of any auto signal.” </p>
<p>And so the ad suggests that the only responsible solution for car owners is to own a Klaxon, because its distinctive noise said “AUTO COMING! LOOK OUT! NOW!”</p>
<h2>Quieter tech to keep drivers safe</h2>
<p>People bought the medium and the message. For two decades, <a href="https://www.upress.virginia.edu/title/5866/">Klaxon dominated the global car horn market</a> and pumped its technocentric safety message into the media ecosystem.</p>
<p>But reliance on loud signaling technology to keep people safe became an odious proposition after the traumas of World War I, when Klaxons were used in the trenches as a gas alarm. In the postwar period, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-centuries-long-quest-for-a-quiet-place-94614">transnational culture war against noise took off</a>. </p>
<p>So societies everywhere turned to different forms of technology, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/brief-history-stoplight-180968734/">like traffic lights</a>, to solve the safety problem that noisy car horns could not. The Klaxon went into diminuendo as engineers turned their attention to the problems of quieting automobile noise <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/31220361.pdf">with muffling technologies</a> such as closed cabins and “silent gearwheels.” </p>
<p>Yet though their focus changed, the underlying message did not: Emerging technologies could always solve the problems caused by existing ones. </p>
<h2>Smart technology promising less thinking</h2>
<p>Flash forward to today and you can see that the more things change in technology advertising, the more they stay the same.</p>
<p>Consider <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvlHTNPROYE">a recent commercial for the Volkswagen Atlas</a> that ran during football games all season – and which eerily echoes the Klaxon ad from 1910.</p>
<p>Titled “Those Guys,” the clever ad shows a wired-in zoomer, transfixed by his smartphone and oblivious to the world around him, walking the streets while Doris Day’s “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYGgveW0VYg">It’s a Lovely Day Today</a>” plays in the background. Like the man in the 1910 Klaxon ad, this guy steps right in front of a moving Atlas. But, thanks to its “Standard Front Assist and Pedestrian Monitoring” technology, the car brakes automatically and everyone is safe. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Human folly – epitomized by ‘those guys’ – is still cast as a problem to be solved by technology.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Obviously, the situation portrayed in the ad has changed. Today’s new quiet technology protects both pedestrian and driver from harm by sensing movement and automatically braking, so it doesn’t really matter whether either is warned. </p>
<p>But the subtext remains the same: Since you can’t change human nature and there will always be “those guys,” rest assured that emerging technology “built with safety in mind” can protect us. </p>
<p>And no matter what gadget the advertisers are trying to sell, that underlying technocentrism – a civic religion in American consumer culture that is practically as important as football – is a constant you can count on.</p>
<p>So whether it’s noisy horns, self-driving cars, <a href="https://theconversation.com/shhhh-theyre-listening-inside-the-coming-voice-profiling-revolution-158921">smart speakers</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-people-calling-bitcoin-a-religion-175717">cryptocurrency</a>, people are bombarded with messages encouraging them to adopt new technology – without stopping to consider if they really need what companies are selling.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Jordan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Today it’s smart technology that will defend drivers and pedestrians. Over a century ago, it was the Klaxon horn.
Matthew Jordan, Associate Professor of Media Studies, Penn State
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/165306
2021-07-30T04:11:44Z
2021-07-30T04:11:44Z
Vital Signs: Uber’s impact on traffic accidents is a lesson in calculating social benefit
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413684/original/file-20210729-13-1xlinec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C278%2C5973%2C3008&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twinsterphoto/Sutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Uber has been great for some people and bad for others.</p>
<p>It has been good for its founders and investors. It has been good for riders who get a convenient and well-priced new way to travel. And it has been good for some drivers who want flexible work. </p>
<p>On the other hand, taxi drivers have clearly lost out. Uber has put a serious dent in the value of taxi “plates” and “medallions”. It has also arguably contributed to lower wages for some drivers. </p>
<p>How do we tally up the total social value of Uber? Or, for that matter, any other business or technological innovation? That’s a question raised by a new economics working paper finding that Uber has helped reduce drunk driving.</p>
<h2>Uber’s economic benefit</h2>
<p>Anyone who takes rides with Uber knows it is a handy service — so handy that research suggests consumers would be prepared to pay up to 60% more for it. </p>
<p>This was calcluated in 2015 by five US economists in a National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w22627">working paper</a>. All up that equated to US Uber users valuing the service at US$6.8 billion a year more than what they they spent on it. </p>
<p>Such a valuation is known as the consumer surplus — the extra benefit a consumer gets on top of the price they pay for something. </p>
<p>Uber’s market capitalisation (in excess of<a href="https://ycharts.com/companies/UBER/market_cap">US$80 billion</a>) meanwhile reflects its producer surplus — the benefit the producer gets from selling something. Typically this might be thought of as the profit, with the market capitalisation basically being the current value of all expected future profits.</p>
<h2>Factoring in externalities</h2>
<p>An introductory economics textbook will tell you the sum of consumer surplus and producer surplus equals the total benefit to society. This can be illustrated using a simplified demand and supply chart (as shown). </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413882/original/file-20210730-25-h0hc1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413882/original/file-20210730-25-h0hc1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/413882/original/file-20210730-25-h0hc1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413882/original/file-20210730-25-h0hc1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413882/original/file-20210730-25-h0hc1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=597&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413882/original/file-20210730-25-h0hc1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413882/original/file-20210730-25-h0hc1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/413882/original/file-20210730-25-h0hc1y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Graph illustrating consumer surplus and producer surplus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Consumer_producer_surplus_from_finn.png">Lendu/Bkwillwm/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>However, the field of welfare economics tells us when this simple arithmetic is not necessarily so. </p>
<p>The first fundamental theorum of welfare economics — known at the First Welfare Theorem — sets out the conditions for Adam Smith’s aphorism that competition and the invisible hand of the market lead to the common good. </p>
<p>A theorem is more than a theory. It is a mathematical truth. The First Welfare Theorem — the most celebrated result in all of economics — was first formally proven in 1951 by <a href="https://digitalassets.lib.berkeley.edu/math/ucb/text/math_s2_article-37.pdf">Kenneth Arrow</a> and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1906814.pdf?casa_token=T9LaZ3EnRfsAAAAA:S0b1RLcrZNUC8HuyFhnXlJlO3YpeGMBA0heR_od-85SwUbLjOn___mdiDZ5hIfN3O-8PsTZkLt5BUUknT0H0IpKawFLPArnV75QjDRVKTVCACQtM5gQ">Gerard Debreu</a>.</p>
<p>It says the free market can maximise total societal welfare, but only based on a few crucial assumptions. One is that there are no “externalities” — that is, a transaction between a buyer and seller doesn’t affect anyone else.</p>
<p>For example, if I like Diet Coke that probably doesn’t affect you. Why do you care what I drink? I’m only one person so I can’t even affect you by driving up the price of my preferred beverage. </p>
<p>But things aren’t always so simple. What if I have raucous parties and blast loud music into the early hours of the morning? That might be fun for me and my guests, but certainly not for my neighbours.</p>
<p>That’s why “noise pollution” is banned. It’s an externality. It requires regulatory intervention to be corrected. For the same reasons economists advocate a price on carbon emissions, to fix what’s going wrong in the competitive market that allows greenhouse gas pollution.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-a-3-point-plan-to-reach-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-132436">Vital Signs: a 3-point plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2050</a>
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<p>All of which is to say we can’t always just look at market outcomes, nor simply add up consumer and producer surplus, to understand the social benefit of an innovation or technology.</p>
<h2>Uber’s positive externalities</h2>
<p>Which brings us back to Uber.</p>
<p>Enter an interesting new NBER working paper, <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w29071?utm_campaign=ntwh&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg24">Uber and Alcohol-related traffic fatalities</a>, by economists Michael Anderson and Lucas Davis of the University of California, Berkeley.</p>
<p>The paper begins with a plausible hypothesis: that some people before the advent of Uber might have chosen to drive their own car, and then drive home drunk after a big night. In many cases Uber is cheaper and more convenient than the taxis that were an option in such circumstances.</p>
<p>If that’s right, then Uber (and other convenient “rideshare” services) will have reduced the incidence of drunk driving, and the accidents and fatalities resulting. This would be an example of a positive externality — a benefit to third parties (or in this case society).</p>
<p>Anderson and Lucas combined data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Fatality Analysis Reporting System and proprietary rideshare activity data from Uber. They then compared areas or greater and less Uber penetration, to helps factor out common trends in, say, safer motor vehicles or more stringent traffic laws. They conclude:</p>
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<p>our results imply that ridesharing has decreased US alcohol-related traffic fatalities by 6.1% and reduced total US traffic fatalities by 4.0%.</p>
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<p>They convert this into a dollar value using the conventional measure of the so-called “value of statistical life”. This leads to a benefit of US$2.3 billion to US$5.4 billion a year — a significant value on top of Uber’s estimated consumer surplus.</p>
<p>So the winners from Uber are consumers, producers and society. </p>
<h2>Broader lessons</h2>
<p>Markets are great. Except when they’re not. One important reason for “not” is negative externalities like pollution. That’s also why a really important role of government is to use policy tools to internalise such externalities.</p>
<p>In the case of ridesharing, governments need to be attentive to those that lose from its advent. Indeed, in 2016 <a href="http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/richardholden/assets/professor-holden_compensation_report_final.pdf">I proposed a compensation scheme</a> to do just that for taxi plate holders.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-uber-drivers-avoided-and-contributed-to-the-fate-of-taxi-drivers-158339">How Uber drivers avoided — and contributed to — the fate of taxi drivers</a>
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<p>But sometimes there are positive externalities from technological innovations. The same logic that applies to taxing negative externalities tells us we should subsidise positive externalities.</p>
<p>I’m not sure that’s going to happen with Uber rides. And, of course, without a carbon tax ridesharing still contributes to pollution externalities. So there are pluses and minuses in the “social benefit of Uber” calculus.</p>
<p>But Anderson and Davis compellingly demonstrate that positive externalities can be large and important, all by themselves.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden is President-elect of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia. In 2016 he wrote a report on taxi-plate compensation commissioned by Uber.</span></em></p>
Uber’s downsides are well publicised, but it may have a big social benefit in helping to reduce the incidence of drunk driving.
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/163351
2021-06-24T20:09:59Z
2021-06-24T20:09:59Z
Vital Signs: how to halve serious injuries and deaths from teenage driving accidents
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408091/original/file-20210624-27-afw1ip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C245%2C4000%2C2000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Teenage drivers are a risky bunch. They are inexperienced and don’t always drive carefully, sometimes with tragic consequences. Various studies indicate <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28707/w28707.pdf">15-30% of teens</a> have an accident in their first year of driving. In many countries driving fatalities are the leading cause of death among teenagers.</p>
<p>The policy question is what to do about it.</p>
<p>One can imagine a number of options, from the light touch (such as information campaigns and advertisements) to the dramatic (such as raising the legal driving age).</p>
<p>Many jurisdictions have introduced laws to restrict the driving privileges of younger drivers. But it’s not always easy to tell if such laws are effective.</p>
<p>One could look at places that have the laws and compare them to accident statistics from places without such laws. But this might be misleading. </p>
<p>It is possible those laws were introduced in places with a bigger problem. Suppose the laws have reduced driving fatalities, but only to the same level as places with less severe problems in the first place. With no difference in the teen driving fatality rate between jurisdictions with or without driving restrictions, it could be incorrectly concluded the restrictions have no effect.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-mad-max-than-max-safety-teenagers-dont-dream-of-safe-cars-47425">More Mad Max than max safety: teenagers don't dream of safe cars</a>
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<h2>The identification problem</h2>
<p>This is an example of what economists call the “identification problem” – figuring out how to identify the true causal effect of a policy intervention. </p>
<p>To identify the causal effect, one needs to know the right counterfactual – that is, what would have happened if the policy had not been introduced. To put it another way, the group affected by the policy needs to be compared with the right control group.</p>
<p>This is a big general issue on which economists have been working for decades. In that time many useful techniques have been developed to address the identification problem across the social sciences.</p>
<p>The development of this set of tools is what MIT economist Joshua Angrist (one of the leading scholars in this endeavour) has called “<a href="https://economics.mit.edu/files/5566">the credibility revolution</a>”.</p>
<p>It’s a revolution because we now have ways to credibly identify the causal effect of different policy interventions. That allows us to provide sensible policy prescriptions based on empirical evidence.</p>
<p>It even permits scholars to understand the size or “magnitude” of the effects and to undertake careful cost-benefit analysis.</p>
<h2>An Australian policy experiment</h2>
<p>Back to those troublesome teenage drivers. </p>
<p>In 2007 New South Wales introduced a law that banned drivers in their first year of a provisional licence from carrying two or more passengers under the age of 21 between 11pm and 5am. </p>
<p>As economists Tim Moore and Todd Morris write in a working paper published by the US National Bureau of Economic Research <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w28707">in April</a>, about 3% of all accidents by first-year drivers occurred while carrying multiple passengers between these hours. But these accidents accounted for about 18% of fatalities.</p>
<p>Moore (an Australian, now at Purdue University in Indiana) and Morris (at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in Germany) saw the NSW policy as an ideal opportunity to test the effectiveness of teen-driving restrictions. </p>
<p>So how did they make sure they had the right counterfactual? </p>
<p>They used one of the classic techniques from the identification revolution, known as the “<a href="https://dimewiki.worldbank.org/Difference-in-Differences">difference-in-differences</a>” – or DID – method.</p>
<p>This technique was made famous (in academic and policy circles) by a path-breaking <a href="https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/njmin-aer.pdf">1994 paper</a> by David Card and Alan Krueger (both then economists at Princeton University) on how minimum wage laws affect employment. </p>
<p>To put it at its simplest, rather than comparing one group to another or one group before and after a policy change, the DID method involves comparing the changes over time in one group to the changes over time in another.</p>
<p>Moore and Morris calculated changes in the restricted period (11pm–5am) then compared those to the changes in accidents during the daytime (8am–8pm). This allowed them to control for other factors affecting crash risks. </p>
<p>What they show is striking. The restriction reduced crashes by first-year drivers by 57%, and hospitalisations and fatalities by 58%. </p>
<p>With the restrictions, crashes in the 11pm-5am window dropped from about 18% to 4% of fatalities involving first-year drivers. That’s an effective policy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/automated-vehicles-may-encourage-a-new-breed-of-distracted-drivers-101178">Automated vehicles may encourage a new breed of distracted drivers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Long-run effects</h2>
<p>If you were sitting in an academic seminar hearing these results, you might ask: “OK, but what happens after the first-year restrictions roll off?” </p>
<p>Remarkably, Moore and Morris also find reductions in nighttime multi-passenger crashes in the second and third years. There are no clear differences in the years that follow, but by then crash rates are down to one-fifth of the first-year level.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Impacts on nighttime multi-passenger crashes</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408086/original/file-20210624-17-1aaaupn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Charts showing Immediate and subsequent impacts on night-time multi-passenger crashes, from the paper 'Shaping the Habits of Teen Drivers' by Timothy Moore & Todd Morris." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408086/original/file-20210624-17-1aaaupn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408086/original/file-20210624-17-1aaaupn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408086/original/file-20210624-17-1aaaupn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408086/original/file-20210624-17-1aaaupn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408086/original/file-20210624-17-1aaaupn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408086/original/file-20210624-17-1aaaupn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408086/original/file-20210624-17-1aaaupn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Timothy Moore & Todd Morris, 'Shaping the Habits of Teen Drivers', National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2021.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>In other words, these restrictions seem to have a persistent effect even after the policy intervention is no longer in place.</p>
<p>There is a broader lesson in this. Policies can have long-run effects, even after the folks targeted by the policy are no longer “being treated”. This is well known in some <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/fryer/publications/aligning-student-parent-and-teacher-incentives-evidence-houston-public-schools">educational interventions</a>. Experiments with small financial rewards for students and parents, for example, have shown improvements in things like attendance and performance continue even after the incentives are discontinued. It is worth looking out for with policies in other areas.</p>
<p>In any case, NSW – and Australia more generally – seems to have cracked the case on teen driver safety. </p>
<p>Thanks to Moore and Morris, and their NBER working paper, it’s an insight from which the rest of the world can learn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Holden is president-elect of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia.</span></em></p>
Australia appears to have cracked the case on teen driver safety by restricting late-night passengers.
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/137545
2020-06-24T18:37:45Z
2020-06-24T18:37:45Z
COVID-19 has created more cyclists: How cities can keep them on their bikes
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343608/original/file-20200623-188896-1rcjyq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=121%2C49%2C4242%2C2752&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bike routes have been expanded in many major cities, including Bogata, Columbia, to encourage people to avoid crowded public transportation. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Fernando Vergara)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As physical distancing measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 begin to relax in some countries and people return to work, the fears surrounding transportation and commuting continue to weigh on the minds of many. </p>
<p>Once popular options like public transit and ridesharing, such as Uber, now carry the <a href="https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/riders-concerned-some-uber-drivers-not-wearing-masks-during-pandemic-1.4951005">risk of potentially exposing riders to COVID-19</a>. The <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/university-ave-among-streets-getting-new-bike-lanes-this-summer-1.4958183">Toronto Transit Commission recently reported</a> that even if it operated at only 30 per cent of capacity, roughly 510,000 riders, passengers would not be able to keep a safe distance from each other. </p>
<p>Personal vehicles do allow for adequate distancing, but <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/toronto-has-worst-commute-in-north-america-sixth-worst-in-world-study-1.3983200">many cities cannot support the shift of public transit riders to cars</a>. There is also a substantial <a href="https://www.moneyunder30.com/true-cost-of-owning-a-car">cost-barrier associated with car ownership</a>: parking, insurance, gas.</p>
<p>As a result, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/nyregion/bike-shortage-coronavirus.html">more people in North America are taking to cycling</a> — and bike shops across the United States and Canada are seeing record sales and facing supply shortages. </p>
<h2>The benefits of cycling</h2>
<p>This recent surge in cyclists is beneficial for several reasons. From a public health perspective, cycling is a form of physical activity that can improve physical and <a href="https://doi.org/10.2165/00007256-200029030-00003">mental health</a>, prevent a host of chronic diseases, such as <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1002%2Fcphy.c110025">heart disease and Type 2 diabetes</a>, and reduce burden on the health-care system. This translates into <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2012/hl/bgrd/backgroundfile-46520.pdf">hundreds of millions of dollars saved from annual health-care costs</a> for Canada. </p>
<p>But there is also a high return on investment from installing cycling networks. The increase in cyclists diverts cars from streets, resulting in <a href="https://www.sharetheroad.ca/what-are-the-financial-benefits-of-cycling--s16222">reduced traffic and pollution, while increasing pedestrian and cyclist safety and property values</a>. Overall, the benefits of investing in cycling infrastructure and increasing the number of cyclists on the road far outweigh its associated costs, with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2004.04.003">one study estimating a 400 per cent to 500 per cent return</a>. </p>
<p>The room for growth in terms of new cyclists is enormous. Prior to the pandemic only a small proportion of people biked or walked to work: <a href="https://cyclingmagazine.ca/sections/news/more-canadians-commuting-bike-census-data/">6.7 per cent in Toronto, 7.2 per cent in Montréal and 9.1 per cent in Vancouver</a>, and in the U.S., <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/05/younger-workers-in-cities-more-likely-to-bike-to-work.html">five per cent to 10 per cent of people in the most bike-friendly cities, like Portland, Ore., ride to work</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343605/original/file-20200623-14258-f1hig4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343605/original/file-20200623-14258-f1hig4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343605/original/file-20200623-14258-f1hig4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343605/original/file-20200623-14258-f1hig4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343605/original/file-20200623-14258-f1hig4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343605/original/file-20200623-14258-f1hig4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343605/original/file-20200623-14258-f1hig4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A mother and her child wait to collect their lunch at the bike-through of a restaurant in Amsterdam, Netherlands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Compared to many European bike-friendly cities like <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-08-07/copenhagen-has-taken-bicycle-commuting-to-a-new-level">Copenhagen, which boasts a 62 per cent bicycle commuter rate</a>, North American cities fall far behind.</p>
<h2>Keeping new cyclists on the road</h2>
<p>Some cities, like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/15/large-areas-of-london-to-be-made-car-free-as-lockdown-eased">London, U.K.,</a> and Toronto, have closed roads to cars to make streets safer for cyclists and pedestrians. Major metropolitan cities like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/01/city-leaders-aim-to-shape-green-recovery-from-coronavirus-crisis">New York and Paris have passed bills to expand cycling infrastructure</a> as a means to promote and maintain the accessibility and safety of cycling.</p>
<p>These measures, however, have been put in place in response to COVID-19 and physical distancing regulations. As cities reopen — and if transportation-related fears lessen — new cyclists may return to traditional modes of transportation, especially as the seasons bring colder weather to some cities. </p>
<p>So how do we get new cyclists to continue biking?</p>
<p>As exercise behaviour scientists, our research focuses on the factors that affect people’s motivation and intention to exercise. We’re also avid cyclists — and know what influences cycling in our communities. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343607/original/file-20200623-188886-sbla6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343607/original/file-20200623-188886-sbla6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343607/original/file-20200623-188886-sbla6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343607/original/file-20200623-188886-sbla6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343607/original/file-20200623-188886-sbla6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343607/original/file-20200623-188886-sbla6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343607/original/file-20200623-188886-sbla6u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Berlin created temporary bicycle lanes to encourage people to ride bikes during the pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Joerg Carstensen/dpa via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Three key factors that can facilitate and maintain cycling are safety, efficiency and cost. To address these factors, we recommend the following strategies: </p>
<p><strong>Construct separated bike lanes</strong>: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2014.12.001">Safety is a paramount concern for all cyclists</a>. Separating vehicle and foot traffic from cyclists increases safety for all groups, and should be a priority. A multi-city study found <a href="https://usa.streetsblog.org/2019/05/29/protect-yourself-separated-bike-lanes-means-safer-streets-study-says/">cities with protected and separated bike lanes showed 44 per cent fewer deaths, compared to an average city</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Connect existing bike networks</strong>: Many cyclists feel the <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2012/hl/bgrd/backgroundfile-46520.pdf">connections from one bike route to another limit their cycling</a>. Cities should identify popular routes and extend existing networks to support those routes. This will help create a more safe and efficient means of transportation.</p>
<p><strong>Improve bike network maintenance during the winter</strong>: Snowy weather is a reality for cycling in Canada and parts of the U.S. Winter cyclists identify <a href="http://cip-icu.ca/Files/Awards/Plan-Canada/Cycling-Through-Winter">poor road surface maintenance as the primary deterrent to winter cycling — not the air temperature or weather</a>. Some snowy countries, <a href="https://torontoist.com/2017/02/what-toronto-can-learn-about-winter-cycling-from-oulu/">like Finland</a>, make road and bike network maintenance during the winter a priority. Doing this means there are fewer cyclists on main roads and arteries, leading to a safer, quicker commute for all. </p>
<p><strong>Incentivize cycling</strong>: We know cycling is hugely beneficial to health and well-being over the long term, yet people are rarely persuaded to start or continue a behaviour because of possible future rewards. Incentives, however, can help keep new cyclists on the road. Governments should offer tax deductions for bike-related purchases and services. Insurance companies should reduce premiums for bikers, <a href="https://www.sunlife.ca/en/tools-and-resources/money-and-finances/understanding-life-insurance/how-does-smoking-affect-your-life-insurance/">as they do for non-smokers</a>. Companies should make a bike purchase part of employee benefits, similar to the <a href="https://www.cyclescheme.co.uk/get-a-bike/how-it-works">Cycle-to-Work</a> and <a href="https://www.biketowork.ie/">BiketoWork</a> schemes popular in the U.K. and Ireland, respectively.</p>
<p>These strategies, taken together, will have the greatest impact on enhancing bike safety, optimizing travel time and making cycling more financially attractive than traditional modes of transportation. </p>
<p>Ultimately, these strategies also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2014.12.001">normalize cycling, further encouraging this new generation of cyclists to stick with it</a>. Enacting these strategies can transform cycling from an alternative mode of transportation to the safest, fastest and most cost-effective mode of transportation, well beyond the duration of COVID-19.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harry Prapavessis receives funding from Canadian Foundation for Innovation-CFI; Canadian Cancer Society-CCS; Canadian Institutes of Health Research-CIHR; Social Science of Humanities Research Council-SSHRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wuyou Sui does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Bike shops have seen record sales during the pandemic as people try to avoid crowded transportation. But governments must do more to keep new cyclists in the saddle.
Wuyou Sui, PhD Candidate, Exercise and Health Psychology Lab, Western University
Harry Prapavessis, Professor, Kinesiology, Western University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/128689
2019-12-13T13:42:06Z
2019-12-13T13:42:06Z
Uber’s data revealed nearly 6,000 sexual assaults. Does that mean it’s not safe?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306399/original/file-20191211-95120-8jhlmd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What's your safest option for a ride home?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/new-york-us-august-23-2015-437820760?src=81d3b23f-1d97-4dda-a6a7-f0dabfc9e57a-1-14&studio=1">MikeDotta/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since Uber released its <a href="https://www.uber.com/us/en/about/reports/us-safety-report/">first ever safety report</a> on Dec. 5, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/05/tech/uber-safety-report/index.html">media</a> has raised alarms for the 5,981 instances of sexual assault included in the document.</p>
<p>This also includes 464 reports of rape over a two-year period – 2017 to 2018.</p>
<p>Uber also reported <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2019/12/05/ubers-fatal-accident-tally-shows-low-rates-but-excludes-key-numbers/">97 fatal car accidents and 107 total deaths</a> during the same period.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UtiewDkAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">From my perspective as a data scientist, however,</a> the numbers may not be as alarming as some reports have claimed.</p>
<h2>On the road</h2>
<p>In 2018, <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/traffic-deaths-2018">36,560 people lost their lives</a> in motor vehicle fatalities in the U.S., and <a href="https://www.uber.com/us/en/about/reports/us-safety-report/">58 of those deaths were Uber-related</a>.</p>
<p>One might think those are the only numbers necessary to inform a decision on Uber’s safety record, but they aren’t. In order to have an accurate assessment of Uber’s motor vehicle fatality, the raw numbers must be compared to the number of miles traveled.</p>
<p>In 2018, Uber, when all the miles driven by all the drivers are added up, has 10.2 billion miles on the road. The national amount of miles driven in the U.S., during the same time period, in total is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/02/21/516512439/record-number-of-miles-driven-in-u-s-last-year">3.2 trillion</a>.</p>
<p>This means that the risk of dying in a motor vehicle accident as of 2018 with Uber is 0.57 deaths per 100 million miles driven, while the national risk is 1.13 deaths per 100 million miles driven.</p>
<p>For 2017, <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/us-dot-announces-2017-roadway-fatalities-down">the U.S. Department of Transportation reported</a> 1.16 deaths per 100 million miles driven for all motor vehicles.</p>
<p>This data implies that it is safer to drive in an Uber than your own car. There is no existing data for taxis. </p>
<p>There are many different reasons this could be true, including <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-uber-lyft-sidecar-madd-20150127-story.html">fewer drunk Uber drivers</a> versus individual drivers and Uber drivers having more experience driving than an individual driver.</p>
<h2>What about sexual assaults?</h2>
<p>Uber reported 3,045 instances of sexual assaults in 2018, including everything from nonconsensual kissing to nonconsensual sexual penetration. </p>
<p>That raw number is shocking, and even one case of sexual assault is one too many. But do those numbers say that Uber is less safe than any other form of transportation? </p>
<p>In this case, Uber was responsible for over 1.3 billion rides that year, meaning the chance of being sexually assaulted in an Uber was 0.0002%.</p>
<p>In order to compare the safety of Uber to yellow cabs and other vehicles, researchers would need to know the number of reported sexual assaults for all types of transportation vehicles.</p>
<p>That data <a href="https://apnews.com/69e4d33accd742e3ba0a5c0439248940">does not exist</a> for the United States. However, it does exist for London, where Uber was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/22/uber-licence-transport-for-london-tfl">banned in 2017</a> due to “a lack of corporate social responsibility.”</p>
<p>In 2016, there were 154 allegations of rape or sexual assault in London made to the police where the suspect was alleged to be a taxi driver – this includes Hackney cabs and Ubers. Uber drivers were allegedly involved in 32.</p>
<p>So Uber drivers are responsible for about 20% of the sexual assaults by taxi drivers. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306426/original/file-20191211-95159-1lsjthc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306426/original/file-20191211-95159-1lsjthc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306426/original/file-20191211-95159-1lsjthc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306426/original/file-20191211-95159-1lsjthc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306426/original/file-20191211-95159-1lsjthc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306426/original/file-20191211-95159-1lsjthc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/306426/original/file-20191211-95159-1lsjthc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Uber reported 3,045 instances of sexual assault in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/customer-ordering-taxi-via-online-apps-1033399969?src=aa49c6a0-20b6-4009-b4b1-7e6dd9f5a50a-1-43&studio=1">Odua Images/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Crunching the numbers</h2>
<p>Is that number disproportionately high or low compared to the number of journeys?</p>
<p>According to the Transport for London office, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd/episodes/guide">every week</a> there were two to three million journeys in all kinds of taxis, including Uber. Uber in London accounted for more than a million in 2016. </p>
<p>So Uber was responsible for over 30% of the journeys, but only 20% of the sexual assaults, meaning that there is no reason to believe that Uber drivers are any more dangerous then any other kind of taxi driver. Actually, quite the opposite.</p>
<p>In June 2018, the Magistrates’ Court <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uber-london-ban-wins-court-appeal-overturn-tfl-revoke-licence-a8418106.html">overturned</a> the ban on Uber, giving the company a 15-month probationary license. But in November, Uber was again <a href="https://fortune.com/2019/11/27/uber-london-ban-global-ride-hailing-backlash/">banned</a> in London due to alleged “repeated <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50544283">safety failures</a>.” </p>
<p>While any sexual assault is one too many and one can never diminish the seriousness of these issues, critics need to take a closer look at the statistics to make a truly informed decision about Uber’s safety.</p>
<p>[ <em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128689/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liberty Vittert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Uber’s first safety report revealed 107 deaths and nearly 6,000 sexual assaults over two years. But the rideshare service may still be safer than the alternatives.
Liberty Vittert, Professor of the Practice of Data Science, Washington University in St. Louis
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/125718
2019-11-10T18:55:38Z
2019-11-10T18:55:38Z
Smart tech systems cut congestion for a fraction of what new roads cost
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298795/original/file-20191027-113980-130djx3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smart transport solutions make better use of existing infrastructure and reduce the need to build expensive new roads. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://stock.adobe.com/ee/images/traffic-lights-on-bridge/544070">AdobeStock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects">new transport projects</a> governments are constantly announcing are <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/08/australian-infrastructure-expensive/">expensive</a>. In the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nsw-election-promises-on-transport-add-up-112531">New South Wales</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-will-voters-pay-for-an-early-christmas-eight-charts-that-explain-victorias-transport-election-106782">Victorian</a> elections, the returned state governments’ transport infrastructure promises added up to A$165 billion. What’s mostly missing from the promised transport solutions is smart technology that provides higher benefits at a fraction of the cost – when retrofitting existing roads in particular. The benefit-to-cost ratio can be more than a dozen times greater than for a new road. </p>
<p>Clearly, infrastructure spending helps to drive the economy. These projects also deliver benefits to the community, including increased road safety, shorter travel times and fewer delays. </p>
<p>The economic merit of these projects is usually captured using a benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR). For example, the BCR of the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/big-projects-bigger-bills-massive-construction-boom-comes-at-a-cost-20190610-p51w5d.html">A$15.8 billion</a> <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/north-east-link">North East Link</a> road project in Melbourne is estimated to be <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/north-east-link-at-risk-of-becoming-financial-disaster-economist-20190726-p52b6a.html">1.25</a> – for every A$1 invested, A$1.25 is returned in benefits to the economy and community. For the Melbourne Metro rail tunnel, a best-case <a href="https://metrotunnel.vic.gov.au/about-the-project/faq">BCR of 3.3</a> has been reported.</p>
<p>But are we getting good value for money? Could cheaper alternatives deliver more benefits? </p>
<h2>Technology offers smarter, cheaper solutions</h2>
<p>Technology offers transport solutions that provide higher benefits at a fraction of the cost of building new infrastructure. Collectively known as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOMamTXK5T8">intelligent transport systems</a>, these are widely recognised today as better answers for smart transport outcomes. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XOMamTXK5T8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Intelligent transport systems can have positive impacts on the safety, efficiency and environmental performance of transport.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/infrastructure-productivity">comparing</a> different “congestion-busting” options, “building more roads” provides, on average, a BCR of 3.0. This is dwarfed by the much higher BCR values of tech solutions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300779/original/file-20191107-10952-17um5x0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Low_Carbon_Mobility_for_Future_Cities.html?id=g8NIDgAAQBAJ&source=kp_book_description&redir_esc=y">Source: Low Carbon Mobility for Future Cities: Principles and Applications (Dia, H. ed, 2017), adapted from Infrastructure Productivity: how to save $1 trillion a year (McKinsey, 2013)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">Our new PM wants to 'bust congestion' – here are four ways he could do that</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/innovation/everydaycounts/edc-1/asct.cfm">Adaptive traffic signal control</a> allows <a href="https://youtu.be/lZtOgqbNMVE">traffic signals</a> to change based on actual traffic demand. This yields, on average, a BCR of 40. </p>
<p>Traffic signals along a route can be coordinated to create “<a href="https://youtu.be/PQ-HBC6QGHo?t=12">green waves</a>” for platoons of vehicles to travel without stopping. These solutions are effective for congested cities that experience rapid traffic growth and changing traffic patterns. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OSL1dS8rqdk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A simulation of adaptive traffic signals</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.itsinternational.com/sections/nafta/features/integrated-corridor-management-to-enhance-travel-efficiency/">Corridor management systems</a> use technology to control networks of motorways and urban roads. The average BCR is 24.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways">managed motorways</a>, <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways/coordinated-ramp-signals">ramp signals</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aUyMJwZ8_s">variable speed limit signs</a> and <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways/traveller-information-for-motorists">traveller information systems</a> are <a href="https://youtu.be/iFL2CZfJZD8">proven tools</a> to respond in real time to changing traffic conditions. In <a href="https://www.transmax.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Case-Study_Smart-Motorways-.pdf">one case</a>, a managed motorway reduced travel times by 42% and accidents by 30%. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pahIsJEFEMU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Active motorway management improves the performance of existing roads.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/traffic-and-road-use/traffic-management/managed-motorways/lane-and-speed-management-for-incidents">Traffic incident management</a>, which has a BCR of 21, includes technologies that aid quick detection and removal of crashes. They also detect other incidents such as broken-down vehicles or spilled loads that reduce road capacity. The systems rely on smart <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X97000168">software</a> that analyses sensor data in real time. </p>
<p><a href="http://ntimc.transportation.org/Pages/NTIMCPublicationsandProducts.aspx">Benefits</a> include a 40% reduction in time to detect incidents. The technology also <a href="http://ntimc.transportation.org/Documents/Benefits11-07-06.pdf">reduces incident duration by 23%</a> and <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/481658">road crashes by 35%</a>.</p>
<h2>Combining tech solutions magnifies benefits</h2>
<p>When solutions are combined, benefits are amplified. The <a href="https://sunguide.info/annual-reports/district-six-its-annual-report/">Florida Department of Transportation</a> implements a transport technology program on its networks. The solutions include incident management, ramp signalling, traveller information and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdVDEU5UVb4&feature=youtu.be&t=50">express lanes</a>. Reduced incident duration and traffic delays are among the key benefits. </p>
<p>In 2018, the benefits of this program totalled almost <a href="https://sunguide.info/reports/annual-reports/District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report/2018-District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report.pdf">US$3.1 billion</a> (A$4.5 billion). The costs were <a href="https://sunguide.info/reports/annual-reports/District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report/2018-District-Six-ITS-Annual-Report.pdf">US$70.3 million</a> (A$102 million). That’s a BCR of 43.7. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300555/original/file-20191107-12506-jk28cf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Benefit-cost ratios of transport technology solutions implemented over a decade by Florida Department of Transportation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the UK, the <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/%7E/media/McKinsey/Industries/Capital%20Projects%20and%20Infrastructure/Our%20Insights/Infrastructure%20productivity/MGI%20Infrastructure_Full%20report_Jan%202013.ashx">cost</a> of implementing technology solutions on the <a href="https://www.roads.org.uk/motorway/m42">M42 motorway</a> was US$150 million (A$218 million) and took two years to complete. Widening the road to produce the same outcome would have taken 10 years and cost US$800 million (A$1.16 billion).</p>
<h2>A shift in priorities is needed</h2>
<p>Considerable investment in transport infrastructure is still required. It should be guided by strong business cases and aligned with community values and expectations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-closer-look-at-business-cases-raises-questions-about-priority-national-infrastructure-projects-94489">A closer look at business cases raises questions about 'priority' national infrastructure projects</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, technology is getting to the point where it’s making a serious difference in tackling the mega challenges facing our cities. Its role must be prioritised. </p>
<p>The benefits are compelling. Intelligent technology systems improve the use of existing assets and increase their operational life. They enhance traveller experience and reduce reliance on building new roads. And they deliver superior value for money.</p>
<p>But widespread deployment of these technologies is still limited. To spur change and unlock value, we must move beyond a project-by-project approach. </p>
<h2>Learn from the best</h2>
<p>Governments can be guided by <a href="https://itif.org/publications/2010/01/09/explaining-international-it-application-leadership-intelligent">leading nations</a> in this field such as South Korea, Japan and Singapore. Their citizens experience the benefits every day. Smart transport solutions improve their quality of life through easier travel, less congestion and more reliable services. </p>
<p>The recurring policy themes in these countries include a national vision of smart infrastructure and commitment to funding. They prioritise investment in research and trials, standards development and partnerships with industry. These are key factors in the success of their tech-driven transport solutions. </p>
<p>These are the policies and investments Australia should prioritise. They will modernise our transport systems in innovative ways that lift our economy and living standards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125718/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, and Transport for New South Wales.</span></em></p>
Faced with the eye-watering costs of building infrastructure, it makes sense to turn to much more cost-effective smart technology to get traffic flowing.
Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of Technology
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/102129
2018-09-19T11:33:16Z
2018-09-19T11:33:16Z
London is proposing 20mph speed limits – here’s the evidence on their effect on city life
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/236163/original/file-20180913-177944-1egev2h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/102055/edit">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A new speed limit of 20mph has <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2018/july/mayor-tfl-and-the-met-launch-plan-to-eliminate-deaths-and-serious-injuries-on-london-s-roa">been proposed</a> for roads in central London. The plans, which would reduce the limit to 20mph within the Congestion Charging Zone, are part of the <a href="https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/safety-and-security/road-safety/vision-zero-for-london">“Vision Zero” strategy</a>, which aims to “eliminate deaths and serious injuries from London’s transport network by 2041”.</p>
<p>The main reason for reducing traffic speed is to lessen the likelihood of a collision – and to reduce the severity of road traffic casualties. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S000145751200276X">Research indicates</a> that if a pedestrian is struck by a vehicle at 24mph, they have a 10% risk of dying. This goes up to 25% at 32mph, and 50% at 41mph. A reduction in speed of as little as 1mph is associated with a reduction in casualties of up to 6%.</p>
<p>Yet plans for the 20mph limit in London have <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/993780/london-news-sadiq-khan-20mph-speed-limit-london-roads-latest">been controversial</a>. Some question the impact it will have on increased traffic congestion and air pollution. Retailers are concerned it will discourage customers from visiting the city centre due to increased congestion. Others question the need for a 20mph limit in areas where congestion means it is rarely possible to go any faster than that. So what’s the evidence on 20mph limits so far? </p>
<p>Many look to the <a href="http://eprints.uwe.ac.uk/34851/7/BRITE%20Bristol%2020mph%20limit%20evaluation%20report%20final.pdf">example of Bristol</a> to support the introduction of 20mph limits. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-43050841">Headline findings</a> have so far suggested that “four lives a year are saved” in the city, which reduced speeds in 2014 and 2015. It has also <a href="http://eprints.uwe.ac.uk/34851/7/BRITE%20Bristol%2020mph%20limit%20evaluation%20report%20final.pdf">been estimated</a> that Bristol has saved over £15m per year due to lower casualty rates. </p>
<p>Elsewhere, results from pilot schemes in <a href="http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/downloads/file/7820/south_central_edinburgh_20mph_limit_pilot_evaluation_2013">Edinburgh</a> and <a href="http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/roadsafety/research/rsrr/theme4/interimeval20mphspeedlimits.pdf">Portsmouth</a> indicated an overall reduction in speed of between 0.9mph and 1.9mph on roads where 20mph limits were implemented. In Portsmouth, an average reduction of 6.3mph was seen on roads that were characterised by speeds of over 24mph before the lower limits were introduced. The city also showed a 22% reduction in reported road casualties where 20mph maximums had been introduced.</p>
<p>The pilot research has also indicated that 20mph limits in Bristol and Edinburgh have led to increases in people choosing to walk (up to 10%) or cycle (up to 5%). <a href="http://www.dannydorling.org/?page_id=3924">Other studies</a> have shown increases in perceived road safety, and the pleasantness of residential environments. </p>
<p>But others are more swayed by what has happened in Manchester, where the supposed benefits of 20mph limits <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-39231956">have been questioned</a>. There, a drop in the number of accidents in 20mph zones was not as great as it was on some faster roads. In light of these findings, Manchester City Council reviewed their 20mph scheme and <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4294454/Council-scraps-20mph-limit-no-difference.html">withdrew funding</a>.</p>
<p>An <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/37/3/515/2362676">overall review</a> of previous research concluded that 20mph schemes can reduce accidents, injuries and traffic volume, and improve perceptions of safety, while being cost effective. However, of the ten studies included in the review, only two focused specifically on speed limits (use of 20mph signage without physical interventions such as speed bumps). </p>
<p>The review also found a lack of evidence assessing the impact of such schemes on addressing social inequalities – road casualties are higher in the most deprived areas.</p>
<p>What is less clear are the potential risks of implementing such schemes, particularly for noise and air pollution. Some argue that lowering traffic speed will lead to increased congestion and consequently increased air pollution. On the other hand, if 20mph speed limits are successful in encouraging more sustainable travel modes then this will result in a reduction in air pollution.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gKjkHnGrxoc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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<p>The evidence to date is somewhat limited because of a lack of robust, long-term evaluations. In particular, there has not been enough investigation into their economic impact and cost effectiveness. </p>
<h2>Looking at the signs</h2>
<p>So what can London learn from the evidence so far? The first lesson is that communication is key – it is vital the public is kept up to date with plans. It is also important to have an evaluation plan which includes interim analyses, so that any changes made are based on solid evidence.</p>
<p>And that evaluation should be a broad one. As well as measuring changes in traffic speed, and the number and severity of collisions, include other measures such as changes in behaviour when it comes to travel mode and liveability.</p>
<p>In our increasingly congested cities, more must be done to move towards sustainable modes of travel – and for society as a whole to become less reliant on cars. However, changing social norms will take time, and in order to be successful, local authorities must ensure they engage with the general public when implementing ambitious transport plans. </p>
<p>London is the latest city in an ever growing list to implement 20mph speed limits. At the “Is 20mph plenty for health?” <a href="https://www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk/programmes/phr/158212/#/">research team</a>, we would encourage London to learn lessons from the other cities – and to share its knowledge as we continue to build the evidence base for 20mph speed limits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruth Hunter receives funding from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme as an investigator on the study "Is 20 plenty for health? Evaluation of the 20mph speed limit networks in Edinburgh and Belfast on a range of public health outcomes".
The article is written in collaboration with the NIHR "Is 20 plenty for health?" research team (<a href="https://www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk/programmes/phr/158212/#/">https://www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk/programmes/phr/158212/#/</a>) </span></em></p>
As traffic slows down, research is gathering momentum.
Ruth Hunter, Lecturer, School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Queen's University Belfast
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/100218
2018-07-25T10:46:13Z
2018-07-25T10:46:13Z
Truck drivers are overtired, overworked and underpaid
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228836/original/file-20180723-189310-y111iu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">More than half of all U.S. truck drivers exceed the federal limit of 60 hours per week.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">5m3photos/shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Research shows that economic pressure pushes drivers to work extremely long hours, contributing significantly to truck crashes. </p>
<p>A 2010 survey by the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health showed that, on average, long-haul truck drivers work <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26397196">50 percent more hours than typical workers</a> and regularly violate U.S. regulations limiting commercial driver work hours for safety reasons.</p>
<p>Long working hours and intense economic pressure are important to everyday motorists, because the truck driver’s workplace is everyone’s roadway. Trucking casualties claim not only the lives of truck drivers, but a significant number of other roadway users – pedestrians, bicyclists, and automobile drivers and passengers. In 2015, 3,836 people <a href="https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/sites/fmcsa.dot.gov/files/docs/safety/data-and-statistics/81121/2017-pocket-guide-large-truck-and-bus-statistics-final-508c-0001.pdf">lost their lives in heavy vehicle crashes in the U.S.</a> </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yj8WP5gAAAAJ&hl=en">My team’s research</a>, as well as <a href="https://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/7206/">numerous other studies</a>, shows a strong link between pay and safety. We calculated that, at 60 cents per mile, truck drivers will trade labor for leisure, working fewer hours and thereby reducing crashes and improving highway safety.</p>
<p><iframe id="0kat1" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0kat1/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Dangerous driving</h2>
<p><a href="http://doi.org/10.1177/1035304617728440">In one study</a>, we looked at the University of Michigan Trucking Industry Program truck stop-based driver survey of 573 mostly long-haul truckers. </p>
<p>Most truck drivers do not get paid for loading, unloading and other delay time, so they regularly record that work time as “off duty,” conserving their available work hours and allowing them to extend their work week. Because this work time goes unpaid, cargo owners feel free to waste this time, costing American truck drivers <a href="https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/files/FMCSA%20Driver%20Detention%20Final%20Report.pdf">more than US$1 billion per year</a>. The Office of the Inspector General of the U.S. Department of Transportation finds that each 15 minutes of excessive delay time increases the average expected crash rate by 6.2 percent.</p>
<p>Truckers log this unpaid labor as off-duty so that they can drive more hours during the week. Indeed, the long-haul truck driver survey shows that more than half of all U.S. truck drivers exceed the weekly limit of 60 hours per week. One in 5 of these drivers work more than 75 hours per week.</p>
<p>In addition to long hours and low pay, truck drivers face dangerous workplace pressure. <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1035304618781654">My study</a> looked at the <a href="https://ai.fmcsa.dot.gov/LTCCS/">U.S. Large Truck Crash Causation Study</a> of more than 1,000 truck-involved crashes. This study shows the last action that a driver took – such as failing to brake for stopped traffic – before the crash. The data suggests that fatigue and driver aggressiveness – in addition to the already substantial economic pressure – make it significantly more likely that the truck driver is responsible for the crash. </p>
<p>There are no good public data on mileage rates. However, according to <a href="https://www.overdriveonline.com/pay-trends-part-2-various-segments-rewarding-performance/">one private survey</a>, the average dry van truck driver with three years experience made 35 cents per mile in 2010. Wages have gone up since then and may be about 40 cents now, but this is in an unusually tight labor market. No matter how you cut it, wages are far lower than the predicted “safe rate” or safety wage.</p>
<h2>Political battles</h2>
<p>In Australia, the Transport Workers Union <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australia-s-deadliest-industry-truck-drivers-rally-for-better-conditions">has called on the government</a> to increase truck driver safety by increasing rates. This month, they asked the federal government to reintroduce a road safety watchdog that would mandate minimum wages and working conditions for interstate truck drivers.</p>
<p>Australia actually once had a road safety watchdog, the Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal, but that was scrapped in 2016. The government decided to kill it based on <a href="https://docs.jobs.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/2016_review_of_the_rsrs.pdf">a private consulting report</a> that claimed that the link between pay rates and safety was bogus. </p>
<p>However, the report actually showed a 50 percent <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/road-trauma-involving-heavy-vehicles.aspx">decline in fatal heavy truck crashes</a> after the tribunal was established in 2012, <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/212/Belzer-2016-Evaluating_the_PwC__Review_of_the.pdf?1532457839">failing to quantify the benefit</a> of the approximately 25 percent decline in the number of deaths.</p>
<p><iframe id="qREyo" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qREyo/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Safe rates are not just an Australian or American problem. In 2015, trucking employers, labor organizations and 25 governments signed <a href="http://www.ilo.org/sector/activities/sectoral-meetings/WCMS_337096/lang--en/index.htm">a tripartite global consensus agreement</a> at the International Labour Office in Geneva, Switzerland. All parties agreed that low rates paid to truck and bus companies and their drivers contributes to unnecessarily dangers on the world’s highways, <a href="http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_dialogue/---sector/documents/meetingdocument/wcms_458146.pdf">pledging to conduct further research on the problem</a>.</p>
<p>In my view, a “safe rates” program – raising pay rates by about 50 percent and paying drivers for all working time – would go a long way toward reducing this risk and the cost borne by victims of crashes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100218/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Belzer received funding for this research, in part, from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the US Department of Transportation Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.</span></em></p>
Low pay pushes drivers to work extremely long hours, causing more crashes and more traffic deaths.
Michael Belzer, Associate Professor, Economics, Wayne State University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/92178
2018-06-11T04:40:26Z
2018-06-11T04:40:26Z
We can design better intersections that are safer for all users
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221300/original/file-20180601-69511-1r0hldw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When cars, trucks, bikes and pedestrians come together at an intersection, design makes the difference between collisions and safety.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pxhere.com/en/photo/919042">pxhere</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is the sixth article in our series, <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/moving-the-masses-54500">Moving the Masses</a>, about managing the flow of crowds of individuals, be they drivers or pedestrians, shoppers or commuters, birds or ants.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>A major issue for road safety is collisions at intersections between vehicles and vulnerable road users such as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-25/every-road-death-in-australia-since-1989/9353794">cyclists, motorcyclists and pedestrians</a>. </p>
<p>In such collisions, often the driver is momentarily unaware of either the vulnerable road user or of their planned path through the intersection. While many factors can cause this lack of “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Situation_awareness">situation awareness</a>”, the design of the intersection is critical. With numbers of vulnerable road users increasing, how intersections are designed requires urgent attention.</p>
<h2>The status quo</h2>
<p>If you look at the intersections in your local area, many appear to have been designed primarily with drivers and efficiency in mind. The designs show little consideration of the needs of vulnerable road users. Typically, we see high speed limits, no dedicated bicycle lanes through the intersection, no filtering lanes for motorcyclists, and short crossing times for pedestrians. </p>
<p>This can make it difficult for vulnerable road users to pass through safely. And critically, the lack of overt protection for these vulnerable users also reduces drivers’ expectation of encountering them. This can lead to something that we call a “looked-but-failed-to-see error”: drivers are not aware of vulnerable road users even though they may have looked at them (this phenomenon is explained <a href="http://acrs.org.au/files/arsrpe/RS060062.pdf">here</a>).</p>
<p>In response to these problems, we recently completed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00140139.2014.945491">research</a> using a series of on-road studies to understand:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>how different road users interact at intersections</p></li>
<li><p>what they need to know to support safe interactions. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>Our next step involved using a sociotechnical systems-based design process to create new intersection design concepts. A sociotechnical system is any system in which humans and technology interact for a purposeful reason. Our aim was to develop a series of new intersection designs that better support the “situation awareness requirements” of all users. </p>
<h2>Understanding the diversity of users</h2>
<p>The most important finding from our on-road studies was that different road users experience the same intersection situations differently. Critically, these differences can create conflicts. </p>
<p>For example, drivers tend to be concerned with what is ahead of them, and specifically the status of the traffic lights. In contrast, cyclists and motorcyclists are concerned with working out a safe path and then filtering safely through the traffic. Thus, drivers who are not expecting them are often not aware of them or of what they might do next. </p>
<p>A key implication of our findings was that intersections should be designed to cater for the diverse situation awareness needs of all road users. The environment should facilitate safe interactions by ensuring that all road users are aware of each other and understand each others’ likely behaviours.</p>
<p>Based on this, we set about designing a series of new intersections using a sociotechnical systems design approach. Among other things this approach aims to create systems that have adaptive capacity and can cope with a diverse set of end user needs. </p>
<p>To achieve this, it proposes several core values, including that:</p>
<ul>
<li>humans should be treated as assets rather than unpredictable and error-prone</li>
<li>technology should be used as a tool to assist and not replace humans</li>
<li>design should consider the specific needs and preferences of different users. </li>
</ul>
<h2>Designs for better intersections</h2>
<p>We used these values as part of a participatory process to create three intersection design concepts. The design brief was to replace one of the intersections from the on-road studies (see below). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208829/original/file-20180304-65529-128eptt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208829/original/file-20180304-65529-128eptt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208829/original/file-20180304-65529-128eptt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208829/original/file-20180304-65529-128eptt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208829/original/file-20180304-65529-128eptt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208829/original/file-20180304-65529-128eptt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208829/original/file-20180304-65529-128eptt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208829/original/file-20180304-65529-128eptt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 1. Bird’s-eye view (above) and first-person view (below) of the intersection to be replaced with new design, Map data ©2012 Google.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208830/original/file-20180304-65507-1c8ysvm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208830/original/file-20180304-65507-1c8ysvm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208830/original/file-20180304-65507-1c8ysvm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208830/original/file-20180304-65507-1c8ysvm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208830/original/file-20180304-65507-1c8ysvm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208830/original/file-20180304-65507-1c8ysvm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208830/original/file-20180304-65507-1c8ysvm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208830/original/file-20180304-65507-1c8ysvm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When we evaluated the designs with drivers, cyclists, motorcyclists and pedestrians, two of the designs performed best against key criteria: alignment with sociotechnical systems values, attainment of key intersection functions (such as to minimise collisions, maximise efficiency, maximise compliance, optimise flexibility), and user preferences. </p>
<p>The first design is known as the “turning team” design. It works on the premise that different road users could work effectively as a team when proceeding through the intersection. To do this the design aims to make drivers explicitly aware of other forms of road user (to connect the team) and provides each with a clear and dedicated path through the intersection. </p>
<p>Like all good teams whose members function based on different roles, the design aims to clear cyclists from the intersection before allowing motorised traffic to enter. Other features include a pedestrian crossing path wide enough to accommodate cyclists who are not comfortable with using the road, motorcyclist filtering lanes, and phasing of traffic lights based on road user type and direction of travel.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222295/original/file-20180608-137309-rgm9un.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222295/original/file-20180608-137309-rgm9un.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222295/original/file-20180608-137309-rgm9un.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222295/original/file-20180608-137309-rgm9un.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222295/original/file-20180608-137309-rgm9un.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1066&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222295/original/file-20180608-137309-rgm9un.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222295/original/file-20180608-137309-rgm9un.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222295/original/file-20180608-137309-rgm9un.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second design is the “circular” concept. It explicitly separates motorised and non-motorised traffic. A circular pathway around the intersection is provided for pedestrians and cyclists to use. This pathway links with cycle lanes running down the centre of the road, separated by a kerb from the roadway. </p>
<p>On the roadway, this design provides a separate bus lane and a motorcycle zone at the front of the intersection to encourage motorcyclists to filter to the front. Finally, the design incorporates signs warning motorists to be on the lookout for cyclists and for motorcyclists filtering through the traffic from behind.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222305/original/file-20180608-137315-1oxah81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222305/original/file-20180608-137315-1oxah81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/222305/original/file-20180608-137315-1oxah81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1044&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222305/original/file-20180608-137315-1oxah81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1044&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222305/original/file-20180608-137315-1oxah81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1044&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222305/original/file-20180608-137315-1oxah81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1312&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222305/original/file-20180608-137315-1oxah81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/222305/original/file-20180608-137315-1oxah81.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1312&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The way forward for intersection design?</h2>
<p>The road transport systems of the future will be markedly different to those of today. Intersections will become intelligent, with the capacity to “talk” with vehicles, and driverless vehicles will negotiate intersections for us. </p>
<p>This is a long way off, however. In the shorter term, intersections will likely comprise a complex mix of standard vehicles, driverless vehicles and partially automated vehicles, as well as cyclists, motorcyclists, pedestrians, and perhaps new forms of vulnerable road user. Without change, intersections will continue to kill and injure at an unacceptable rate.</p>
<p>Our research provides important messages for how the intersections of the future should be designed. Designers should equally consider the needs of all users, rather than considering drivers first and the rest afterwards. Critically, this should extend to driverless vehicles and automated systems. What, for example, are the situation awareness needs of a fully driverless vehicle when negotiating an intersection? How can intersection design support these needs as well as those of human users?</p>
<p>Designers should not fall into the trap of assuming that all road users require the same information when negotiating intersections. While separating them physically, the intersection of the future should aim to connect its users cognitively.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>We would like to acknowledge our colleagues and collaborators who have contributed to this research, including Professor Mike Lenne, Associate Professor Guy Walker, Professor Neville Stanton, Dr Natassia Goode, Dr Nick Stevens and Dr Ashleigh Filtness.</em></p>
<p><em>You can find other articles in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/moving-the-masses-54500">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Salmon receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gemma Read receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>
Collisions at intersections between motor vehicles, cyclists and pedestrians cause many deaths and injuries. Design that considers how each group approaches intersections improves everyone’s safety.
Paul Salmon, Professor of Human Factors, University of the Sunshine Coast
Gemma Read, Research Fellow in Human Factors & Sociotechnical Systems, University of the Sunshine Coast
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/92549
2018-05-01T10:40:54Z
2018-05-01T10:40:54Z
Technology is better than ever – but thousands of Americans still die in car crashes every year
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210339/original/file-20180314-113449-1m07jkk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">35,092 people died in crashes on U.S. roadways
in 2015.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Honeybee49/shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Today, driving is arguably safer than ever been before.</p>
<p>Modern vehicles now boast a number of safety features, including blind spot monitoring, driver alertness detection systems and emergency braking. Additionally, highway engineering has improved over the last several decades. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention called motor vehicle safety <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6019a5.htm">one of the top 10 U.S. public health achievements</a> of the 20th century. </p>
<p>Despite this, there were <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/812_381_distracteddriving2015.pdf">32,166 crashes</a> that led to at least one death in the U.S. in 2015. </p>
<p>Over the course of one year, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/crash-injuries/index.html">crash injuries</a> cost an estimated US$18 billion spent in lifetime medical expenses and $33 billion of lifetime work. That’s six times more in medical costs than the U.S. spends annually treating <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/10/03/each-year-the-u-s-spends-2-8-billion-treating-gunshot-wounds/">gunshot wounds</a>. </p>
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<p>These numbers are alarming. It’s not a stretch to say that motor vehicle crashes should be viewed as a public health crisis. I have been researching roadway safety for the last five years and have provided expert testimony to state legislative bodies on my findings. The data show that robust distracted driving policies can make a difference – if states pursue them. </p>
<h2>Why people crash</h2>
<p>Why are there so many crashes when cars and roadways are much improved? Part of the answer lies in a ballooning technological phenomenon: distracted driving. </p>
<p>According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, there are three primary types of driver distraction: taking one’s hands off the wheel, taking one’s eyes off the road and taking one’s mind off driving.</p>
<p>When a driver interacts with a cellphone – texting, video streaming, emailing – it takes his eyes off the road for several seconds at a time. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2005.10.015">Research shows</a> that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2014.07.014">cellphone use while driving</a> can result in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001457513003631">longer reaction times</a>, impaired following distance and crashes. </p>
<p>That can be injurious, if not deadly. <a href="http://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2013.301750">Studies on distracted driving and cellphone use</a> almost always find negative roadway outcomes, such as near-misses, crashes and delayed reaction times.</p>
<p>In 2015, 10 percent of all roadway fatalities occurring in the U.S. <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/812_381_distracteddriving2015.pdf">involved distraction</a>, leading to close to 3,500 deaths and an estimated 391,000 people injured. While distracted driving is prevalent among all ages, drivers between the ages of 15 and 19 were involved in more fatal crashes than those in other age groups. </p>
<p><a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/811059">Other major causes</a> for fatal crashes include unfavorable weather conditions, such as fog or snow; drivers’ physical impairments, such as drowsiness or heart attacks; aggressive driver behavior; or vehicle failures.</p>
<p>Paradoxically, some causes of crashes may seem positive. As the economy improves and gasoline prices drop, <a href="https://journals.lww.com/lww-medicalcare/Abstract/2016/09000/The_Association_of_Gasoline_Prices_With_Hospital.4.aspx">more people drive</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953616300715">crash risk increases</a>. In recent years, the U.S. has climbed out of a recession, and the unemployment rate has been on the decline.</p>
<h2>Distracted driving laws</h2>
<p>To tackle the public health threat of coronary heart disease and stroke, states implemented <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6015a2.htm">tobacco control laws</a> that prohibit smoking in public places; implemented excise taxes; and allowed Medicaid to cover <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/quit_smoking/cessation/pdfs/coverage.pdf">treatment of tobacco addiction</a>.</p>
<p>States have also used legislation to address motor vehicle safety. Common laws include blood alcohol concentration limits; graduated driver licensing programs; and laws mandating the use of seat belts, child safety seats and motorcycle helmets. </p>
<p>States have also zeroed in on texting. Today, all states but Montana have passed laws that <a href="http://legacy.lawatlas.org/files/upload/2015%205_1_DistractedDriving_Reports.pdf">specifically prohibit texting while driving</a>. The laws generally define texting as the manual composition, reading or sending electronic communications via a portable electronic device.</p>
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<p>However, all state laws prohibiting texting while driving are not created equal. For example, in some states, an officer cannot stop a driver just for texting – there must be another reason. Moreover, some states, like Indiana, ban texting while driving for young drivers only.</p>
<p>In states where officers <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2014.301894">can stop drivers just for texting</a>, <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2014.302537">studies show</a> that roadway deaths have gone down by about 3 percent, while hospitalizations decreased about 7 percent.</p>
<p>States where an officer must have another reason did not see significant reductions. In fact, among some age groups, these bans were linked to increases in crash-related fatalities and hospitalizations. This is perhaps because people in these states are holding their devices just a little lower than they otherwise would, so as not to be detected. </p>
<p>As lawmakers and other stakeholders consider what can be done to further address distracted driving as a public health crisis, enforcement of existing laws is an obvious first step. Given that texting bans are not aggressively enforced widely, it stands to reason that more serious attempts of enforcement may lead to safer roads.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/92549/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alva O. Ferdinand does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Motor vehicle crashes are a public health crisis in the US. Distracted driving laws can save lives – but only some states have them.
Alva O. Ferdinand, Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management, Texas A&M University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/83569
2017-09-10T19:44:08Z
2017-09-10T19:44:08Z
More cyclists are ending up in hospital with serious injuries, so we need to act now
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185200/original/file-20170908-9945-14aeavv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Serious injury rates are rising in cyclists, and are associated with significant disability and economic costs. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/573221677?src=ZUl0Yi1m8YYIQIdspWj5Gg-1-0&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cyclists are suffering more serious injuries in road crashes than ever before, leading to significant disability, our <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2017/207/6/road-safety-serious-injuries-remain-major-unsolved-problem">new study</a> shows.</p>
<p>But what is less clear is what’s behind these injuries, which are occurring as the number of people who died in road traffic crashes has fallen.</p>
<p>In our study published today in the <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2017/207/6/road-safety-serious-injuries-remain-major-unsolved-problem">Medical Journal of Australia</a>, we investigated deaths and serious injuries after traffic crashes in Victoria from 2007 to 2015.</p>
<p>We looked at whether deaths and serious injury rates for all road users changed over time. We also looked at the disability and economic costs of these injuries.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-take-to-their-bikes-when-we-make-it-safer-and-easier-for-them-82251">People take to their bikes when we make it safer and easier for them</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The total number of deaths from road traffic crashes fell over the study period. But rates of serious road traffic injuries did not.</p>
<p>There were 10,092 road traffic deaths and serious injuries over the course of our study. This led to over 77,000 disability-adjusted life years (a measure of overall disability burden, expressed as the number of years lost to disability or early death). </p>
<p>The estimated health costs associated with these road traffic injuries (known as “health loss” costs) was more than A$14 billion.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/185197/original/file-20170907-9945-1vtpztn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The rates of crashes resulting in serious injury in cyclists rose 8% a year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/399077320?src=KpKNqkCaCkQBh_w3M3u2jw-1-0&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most concerning was the rise in serious injury rates in cyclists, which increased 8% a year. In fact, the absolute number of cases more than doubled over the nine-year study period. </p>
<p>These injuries are often severe, including head injuries, spine injuries and fractures of the pelvis and limbs. They often lead to significant disability.</p>
<p>Over the course of our study, a rise in such serious injuries led to a 56% increase in disability-adjusted life years; health costs for cyclists were more than A$700 million.</p>
<h2>Why are cyclists’ serious injuries rising?</h2>
<p>However, it is not clear what’s driving these increases in serious injuries.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457516302950">previous study</a>, we interviewed cyclists admitted to hospital after a crash. Of the crashes that occurred on the road, 52% involved another road user, most commonly a motor vehicle.</p>
<p>A total of 22% of all on-road crashes also occurred while cyclists were riding in a marked bicycle lane, demonstrating they are not sufficient to completely protect cyclists. While these on-road bicycle lanes provide dedicated space for cyclists, riders remain close to motorists, and people in parked cars opening doors. </p>
<p>A total of 48% of on-road crashes only involved a single cyclist. While we need more research to better understand the single cyclist-only crashes, <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=1343699">researchers have previously found</a> the condition of road surfaces, distraction, mechanical issues and speed are possible factors.</p>
<h2>Are more people cycling?</h2>
<p>One of the limitations of our study was that we couldn’t adjust for the amount of time or distance cyclists travel each year. Unfortunately, we have very limited data on this in Australia. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bicyclecouncil.com.au/publication/national-cycling-participation-survey-2017">National Cycling Participation Survey</a> is a telephone survey that asks how many times people cycled in the past week, month or year. The 2017 results showed the proportion of people who had cycled in the past month declined from 27% in 2011 to 22% in 2017. </p>
<p>While cycling participation overall may have declined, there may be an increase in the overall time spent riding, or the number of cyclists riding on the road, compared to on bicycle paths, for example.</p>
<h2>So, what does this mean for cyclists?</h2>
<p>So, is the message from our study, “don’t cycle”? No, not at all. The health and economic benefits of cycling are well established. A <a href="http://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j1456">recent UK study</a> demonstrated that cycling to work was associated with a 41% lower risk of early death compared to commuting by car or public transport.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/better-health-is-only-a-short-bike-ride-away-3613">Better health is only a short bike ride away</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And while cycling-related injury rates are on the rise, they made up only 11% of serious road traffic injuries.</p>
<p>It is clear we need greater investment in cyclist safety. We know being concerned about safety is one of the <a href="https://www.heartfoundation.org.au/images/uploads/publications/Cycling-Survey-2011-Riding-a-Bike-for-Transport.pdf">biggest barriers</a> to people cycling. </p>
<p>Interactions with motor vehicles – not just collisions, but also being in the presence of and close proximity to motor vehicles – and the absence of appropriate cycling infrastructure are some of the most common barriers people mention.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-bicycles-and-the-fatal-myth-of-equal-reciprocity-81034">Cars, bicycles and the fatal myth of equal reciprocity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Dedicated bike lanes that are separated from traffic are <a href="http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/19/5/303">an effective way</a> to reduce serious injury. </p>
<p>While we need to invest more in cycling-specific infrastructure (like bike lanes and bike paths) it is often not feasible to have this across an entire road network. So, we need a multi-faceted approach to improving safety for cyclists. </p>
<p>Reducing the speed limit in residential streets to 30km/h has been proposed as a way to improve safety for vulnerable road users, and a <a href="https://www.yarracity.vic.gov.au/news/2017/09/05/yarra-to-introduce-30kmh-speed-trial">trial</a> has recently been announced in inner Melbourne. </p>
<p>We also need to improve the culture around cyclists as legitimate road users, through changes in legislation, education and training for all road users.</p>
<p>Given the rising injury rates in cyclists, we need government and road safety organisations to act now to provide a safer environment for cyclists.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83569/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Beck receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council. The Victorian State Trauma Registry is funded by the Department of Health and Human Services, the state Government of Victoria and the Transport Accident Commission.</span></em></p>
More cyclists are suffering from serious injuries than ever before. Here’s what we can do to provide a safer environment.
Ben Beck, Research fellow, Monash University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/80668
2017-07-25T20:08:31Z
2017-07-25T20:08:31Z
Personal injury insurers are at risk of crashing in the transport systems of tomorrow
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/178763/original/file-20170719-31776-1en6k9r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia has a series of transport injury insurance, compensation and rehabilitation schemes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Between 1955 and 1976, Australian private vehicle ownership <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/9309.030%20September%201976?OpenDocument">more than tripled</a>. This period produced improved population mobility. However, it also created a continuing human and financial toll generated by road trauma.</p>
<p>In response, Australia developed a series of transport injury insurance, compensation and rehabilitation schemes funded by compulsory third-party premiums attached to vehicle registrations.</p>
<p>Since then, schemes such as the TAC have played a crucial role in ensuring Australia’s transport and health systems continue to function while effectively mopping up the more than A$5 billion in annual injury costs <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiDqsbfgaHVAhWClJQKHTzjAt8QFggoMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tac.vic.gov.au%2F__data%2Fassets%2Fpdf_file%2F0006%2F206169%2FTAC_Annual_Report_2016_web-FINAL.pdf&usg=AFQjCNEbNOxJ4PGtlEClVzdP_B21coNMAA">generated by road crashes</a>.</p>
<p>However, the time for Australia’s personal injury insurance schemes to start preparing for change is now. Here’s why.</p>
<h2>What are these schemes for?</h2>
<p>Injury insurance, compensation and rehabilitation schemes pay for emergency services, trauma and hospital care, psychological care, GP visits, medications, wage replacement, and a host of other supports to injured people and their families.</p>
<p>In some circumstances, they also allow injured road-users to sue at-fault drivers for common law damages.</p>
<p>Through continued investment in administrative efficiencies and injury prevention, schemes also attempt to keep a lid on the cost of premiums paid for by motorists. Therefore, while exact design differs between jurisdictions, broadly, each scheme promotes an emphasis on:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>maintaining reasonable cost of premiums for motorists;</p></li>
<li><p>responding to clients’ non-medical expectations of service; and</p></li>
<li><p>improving health outcomes for injured clients.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>However, achieving multiple performance goals is challenging – especially in the face of rapid external social and technological change.</p>
<p>For example, in 1986, the failure of Victoria’s Motor Accident Board to adjust to the “era of mass motor vehicle usage” brought about <a href="http://www.iscrr.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/297180/To-strike-a-balance-WorkSafe-History.pdf">its collapse</a>. At closure, the board experienced widespread fraud, provided poor support for injured people, held outstanding liabilities of $2.6 billion, and had revenue shortfalls of more than $200 per registered vehicle.</p>
<p>Similarly, the New South Wales government recently <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjc6LnIgqHVAhXBmpQKHZHXCY0QFggkMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sira.nsw.gov.au%2F__data%2Fassets%2Fpdf_file%2F0018%2F95400%2FCTP-Reform-options-paper-final.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGPSFdp4Rx-4quT7KrqB3iFOR1F4w">invited comment</a> on the redesign of its compulsory third-party insurance scheme. It cited significant challenges including increased injury claim volumes, fraudulent and exaggerated claims, inefficient distribution of funds to injured people, and lengthy claim resolution processes.</p>
<p>NSW is attempting to redesign its scheme to optimise affordability, health outcomes, and system responsiveness in the face of an uncertain, dynamic and complex transportation and legal environment.</p>
<p>As these examples illustrate, schemes must have confidence in predicting levels of road trauma produced by the transport system, and the costs of rehabilitation and common law cases associated with claims.</p>
<p>Against this, expected revenue gathered from insurance premiums and investment returns must be balanced. However, the predictability of these equations may be about to change radically.</p>
<h2>The need for change</h2>
<p>Australia’s transport system finds itself on the precipice of a technological and social revolution. The combined rise of <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-driving-cars-must-learn-trust-and-cooperation-79484">autonomous vehicles</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-love-with-uber-and-airbnb-you-might-have-disruption-fever-49592">sharing economy</a> is coalescing into a potentially positive – yet uncertain – future for transport system design.</p>
<p>In turn, this should ring alarm bells for injury insurance, compensation and rehabilitation schemes whose operational models reflect current, rather than future, transport system structures. The former are based on human drivers, private car use, private car ownership, registration-linked premium collection, and personal liability for the consequences of road crashes.</p>
<p>In future, though, there may be the introduction of autonomous vehicles not “driven” by owners or no longer “owned” by individuals at all. This could lead to a reduction in the total vehicle road-going fleet, and a decrease in the amount compulsory third-party premium revenues. </p>
<p>Finally, this could lead to the hiking of premiums for those left in the system without access to autonomous vehicles. These would potentially be people on low-incomes or motorcycles, creating a virtually uninsurable “self-driving” population.</p>
<p>And, in the case of common law damages, who would be the target of litigation? The manufacturer? The autonomous vehicle user?</p>
<p>It is hard to imagine users agreeing to accept liability on behalf of an autonomous vehicle manufacturer any more than you would take on risk for your taxi driver.</p>
<p>However, autonomous vehicles are often hailed for their <a href="http://bigthink.com/ideafeed/googles-self-driving-car-is-ridiculously-safe">potential safety benefits</a> – which may yet prove correct. If a future containing autonomous vehicles no longer contains road crashes, then personal injury insurers may no longer be required. But the road to that utopia contains many twists and turns, not all of which we can foresee.</p>
<p>What we do know is that around 1,300 people still die, and tens of thousands more are injured, on Australian roads <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety/fatal_road_crash_database.aspx">every year</a>. Australians pay around $700 per vehicle per year to ensure their medical bills and rehabilitation costs will be looked after in the event of a crash. </p>
<p>It is unclear how autonomous vehicles will reshape the transportation sector. It is therefore unclear how this will affect the operational model of the multi-billion-dollar personal injury insurance industry that underpins it. But if schemes cannot adapt to the transition, the functionality of the whole transport system is at risk.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/80668/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
It’s time for Australia’s personal injury insurance schemes to start preparing for change.
Jason Thompson, Senior Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/75771
2017-04-12T20:11:53Z
2017-04-12T20:11:53Z
The school of hard knocks: driverless cars should learn lessons from crashes
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164978/original/image-20170412-26736-1cw5f6r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Driverless cars still need to 'learn' how to drive on our roads, especially at busy junctions.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Karsten Neglia</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Learning how to drive is an ongoing process for we humans as we adapt to new situations, new road rules and new technology, and learn the lessons from when things go wrong.</p>
<p>But how does a driverless car learn how to drive, especially when something goes wrong?</p>
<p>That’s the question being asked of Uber after <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/uber-tech-crash-idUSL2N1H20DE">last month’s crash</a> in Arizona. Two of its engineers were inside when one of its autonomous vehicles spun 180 degrees and flipped onto its side. </p>
<p>Uber pulled its test fleet off the road pending police enquiries, and a few days later the vehicles were <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-tech-crash-idUSKBN16Y1WB">back on the road</a>.</p>
<h2>Smack, spin, flip</h2>
<p>The Tempe Police Department’s report on the investigation into the crash, <a href="http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1331542">obtained by the EE Times</a>, details what happened.</p>
<p>The report says that the Uber Volvo (red in the graphic below) was moving south at 38mph (61kmh) in a 40mph (64kmh) zone when it collided with the Honda (blue in the graphic) turning west into a side street (point 1). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164962/original/image-20170411-26710-p0gc2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164962/original/image-20170411-26710-p0gc2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164962/original/image-20170411-26710-p0gc2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164962/original/image-20170411-26710-p0gc2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164962/original/image-20170411-26710-p0gc2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164962/original/image-20170411-26710-p0gc2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164962/original/image-20170411-26710-p0gc2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164962/original/image-20170411-26710-p0gc2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Uber crash - initial collisions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alex Hanlon / Sean Welsh based on Tempe Police report</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Knocked off course, the Uber Volvo hit the traffic light at the corner (point 2) and then spun and flipped, damaging two other vehicles (points 3 and 4) before sliding to a stop on its side (point 5). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164961/original/image-20170411-26730-745zd2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164961/original/image-20170411-26730-745zd2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/164961/original/image-20170411-26730-745zd2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164961/original/image-20170411-26730-745zd2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164961/original/image-20170411-26730-745zd2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164961/original/image-20170411-26730-745zd2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164961/original/image-20170411-26730-745zd2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/164961/original/image-20170411-26730-745zd2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Uber crash - subsequent collisions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alex Hanlon / Sean Welsh based on Tempe Police report</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Thankfully, no one was hurt. The <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-uber-tech-crash-idUKKBN16W0V1">police determined</a> that the Honda driver “failed to yield” (give way) and <a href="http://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/tech/2017/03/29/tempe-releases-police-report-uber-crash/99797486/">issued a ticket</a>. The Uber car was not at fault.</p>
<h2>Questions, questions</h2>
<p>But <a href="http://www.linleygroup.com/analyst_detail.php?Mike-Demler-18">Mike Demler</a>, an analyst with the <a href="http://www.linleygroup.com/">Linley Group</a> technology consultancy, <a href="http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1331542">told the EE Times</a> that the Uber car could have done better:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is totally careless and stupid to proceed at 38mph through a blind intersection.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Demler <a href="http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1331542">said</a> that Uber needs to explain why its vehicle proceeded through the intersection at just under the speed limit when it could “see” that traffic had come to a stop in the middle and leftmost lanes.</p>
<p>The EE Times report said that Uber had “fallen silent” on the incident. But as Uber uses “deep learning” to control its autonomous cars, it’s not clear that Uber could answer Demler’s query even if it wanted to.</p>
<p>In deep learning, the actual code that would make the decision not to slow down would be a complex state in a neural network, not a line of code prescribing a simple rule like “if vision is obstructed at intersection, slow down”. </p>
<h2>Debugging deep learning</h2>
<p>The case raises a deep technical issue. How do you debug an autonomous vehicle control system that is based on deep learning? How do you reduce the risk of autonomous cars getting smashed and flipped when humans driving alongside them make bad judgements? </p>
<p>Demler’s point is that the Uber car had not “learned” to slow down as a prudent precautionary measure at an intersection with obstructed lines of sight. Most human drivers would naturally beware and slow down when approaching an intersection with obstructed vision due to stationary cars. </p>
<p>When it comes to <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.07274v2">deep reinforcement learning</a>, this relies on “value functions” to evaluate states that result from the application of policies. </p>
<p>A value function is a number that evaluates a state. In chess, a strong opening move by white such as pawn e7 to e5 attracts a high value. A weak opening such as pawn a2 to a3 attracts a low one. </p>
<p>The value function can be like “ouch” for computers. Reinforcement learning gets its name from positive and negative reinforcement in psychology.</p>
<p>Until the Uber vehicle hits something and the value function of the deep learning records the digital equivalent of “following that policy led to a bad state - on side, smashed up and facing wrong way - ouch!” the Uber control system might not quantify the risk appropriately. </p>
<p>Having now hit something it will, hopefully, have learned its lesson at the school of hard knocks. In future, Uber cars should do better at similar intersections with similar traffic conditions. </p>
<h2>Debugging formal logic</h2>
<p>An alternative to deep learning is autonomous vehicles using explicitly stated rules expressed in formal logic.</p>
<p>This is being developed by <a href="http://nutonomy.com/">nuTonomy</a>, which is running an <a href="http://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/self-driving/after-mastering-singapores-streets-nutonomys-robotaxis-are-poised-to-take-on-new-cities">autonomous taxi pilot</a> in cooperation with authorities in Singapore. </p>
<p>NuTonomy’s approach to controlling autonomous vehicles is based on a rules hierarchy. Top priority goes to rules such as “don’t hit pedestrians”, followed by “don’t hit other vehicles” and “don’t hit objects”.</p>
<p>Rules such as “maintain speed when safe” and “don’t cross the centreline” get a lower priority, while rules such as “give a comfortable ride” are the first to be broken when an emergency arises. </p>
<p>While NuTonomy does use machine learning for many things, it does not use it for normative control: deciding what a car ought to do. </p>
<p>In October last year, a NuTonomy <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/driverless-car-hits-lorry-during-test-drive">test vehicle accident was involved in an accident</a>: a low-speed tap resulting in a dent, not a spin and flip.</p>
<p>The company’s chief operating officer Doug Parker <a href="http://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/self-driving/after-mastering-singapores-streets-nutonomys-robotaxis-are-poised-to-take-on-new-cities">told IEEE Spectrum</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>What you want is to be able to go back and say, “Did our car do the right thing in that situation, and if it didn’t, why didn’t it make the right decision?” With formal logic, it’s very easy. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Key advantages of formal logic are provable correctness and relative ease of debugging. Debugging machine learning is trickier. On the other hand, with machine learning, you do not need to code complex hierarchies of rules.</p>
<p>Time will tell which is the better approach to driving lessons for driverless cars. For now, both systems still have much to learn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75771/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sean Welsh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
We should all learn from mistakes. Driverless cars must do the same when it comes to any accidents they’ve been involved in on our roads, no matter who was to blame.
Sean Welsh, Doctoral Candidate in Robot Ethics, University of Canterbury
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/75294
2017-04-06T04:51:47Z
2017-04-06T04:51:47Z
Driverless cars might be safer but they’ll still keep the courts busy
<p>If driverless cars live up to the safety hype, they could result in a significant reduction in the number of court cases dealing with human-related traffic offences.</p>
<p>But before we can clear the courts, we will need to have a period where human drivers share the responsibility (both actual and legal) for control of their vehicles.</p>
<p>Arriving at the point where fully automated vehicles are on our roads requires us to establish who is legally in control of them. If we don’t, we could find that we have simply replaced one type of legal dispute with another.</p>
<h2>Traffic offences</h2>
<p>More than 200,000 people in Australia were found guilty of driving and traffic offences in the 12 months to June last year, according to <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/4513.0%7E2015-16%7EMain%20Features%7EDefendants%20proven%20guilty%7E5">Australian Bureau of Statistics figures</a>.</p>
<p>The most common crimes were driving while intoxicated (71,501 cases) and speeding (16,461 cases). Other offences included failing to obey traffic signs and signals, and careless driving.</p>
<p>In some parts of Australia these <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4513.0">offences are increasing in frequency</a>, placing a growing burden on our courts. All because of wrongdoing or careless conduct of a human in charge of a motor vehicle.</p>
<p>By contrast, fully automated vehicles have established an impressive compliance and safety record, so far.</p>
<p>There have been very few reported crashes, although they obviously cause concern when they occur, such as the crash last year that led to the death of the driver of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/30/tesla-autopilot-death-self-driving-car-elon-musk">Tesla car in autopilot mode</a>.</p>
<p>Most crashes involving autonomous vehicles are less serious than that, and are due to the errors of other (human) drivers, such as <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-tech-crash-idUSKBN16Y1WB">last month’s Uber collision in Arizona</a> and the 16 crashes <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/02/technology/personaltech/google-says-its-not-the-driverless-cars-fault-its-other-drivers.html">reported by Google</a> between 2009 and 2015. Google’s cars have been involved in further accidents, including one last February when its <a href="https://www.wired.com/2016/02/googles-self-driving-car-may-caused-first-crash/">autonomous Lexus pulled out into a bus</a>.</p>
<p>The safety record of autonomous vehicles is frequently contrasted with research that identifies that more than 90% of regular vehicle collisions are <a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/811059">caused by human error</a>.</p>
<p>As the number of fully automated cars on our roads increases, we should expect to see a reduction in the number of traffic offences coming before our courts. In Victoria alone these offences currently account for nearly <a href="https://www.magistratescourt.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/Default/151130%20AR%202014-15%20%28PDF%20final%29.pdf">21,000 cases heard each year</a> in the Magistrates’ Court.</p>
<h2>Drivers, passengers and ‘chaperones’</h2>
<p>The removal of the human driver has the potential to make some criminal charges unnecessary. This could include charges of driving while intoxicated, unlicensed driving, and driving with a disqualified, suspended or cancelled licence.</p>
<p>Making these offences redundant in Victoria, for example, would remove about <a href="https://www.magistratescourt.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/Default/151130%20AR%202014-15%20%28PDF%20final%29.pdf">29,000 cases annually</a> from the Magistrates’ Court.</p>
<p>But reform may be necessary to clarify the legal situation. In Victoria the definition of “drives” in the <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/rsa1986125/s49.html%5D">Road Safety Act 1986</a> includes “<a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/rsa1986125/s3.html">to be in control of a vehicle</a>”. Drink and drug driving offences refer to a person who “<a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/rsa1986125/s49.html">drives … or is in charge of a motor vehicle</a>”.</p>
<p>Would a person who enters a fully automated car that unlocks as they approach it, who gives verbal directions as to their destination (and leaves it to the car to determine the route), be said to be in control or in charge of the car?</p>
<p>If that person is not in control of the car, then who is? And what if the vehicle in question is an Uber vehicle, taxi or bus? Who is responsible for the actions of that vehicle – the hirer, the owner or the manufacturer?</p>
<p>It is interesting to note that the staff member present in Curtin University’s <a href="http://research.curtin.edu.au/institutes-centres/driverless-bus/">recently introduced fully automated bus</a> is referred to as a “chaperone”.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GvqpyimSfmk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Curtin University is trialling an electric driverless bus that seats 11 passengers.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In essence, a key legal issue will be to determine whether a person present in a fully automated car is more like a driver or a passenger.</p>
<p>Tesla’s chief executive <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/elon-musk-tesla-liable-driverless-car-crashes-2016-10">Elon Musk said</a> his company will accept liability for fully automated vehicles where a problem stems from a design fault. But he also suggested that in other circumstances, individuals and their insurers may be responsible.</p>
<p>Some clarification of the legal position may be required. A <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/driverless-cars-in-the-uk-a-regulatory-review">report</a>, released by the UK government’s Department for Transport in February 2015, warned that with fully automated vehicles:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] it does not seem reasonable to suggest that the human driver is still responsible for the manner in which the vehicle drives since they may not even be aware of the road environment or the presence of other road users.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The transition phase: semi-automated vehicles</h2>
<p>While fully automated vehicles are not yet freely driving on Australian roads (the Curtain bus is restricted to a specified route), many Australian drivers already use cruise control, electronic stability control, parking assist and advanced braking systems to help them drive their cars. </p>
<p>Human drivers can override these automatic settings at any time, and may be required to do so to avoid colliding with cyclists, pedestrians, animals and stationary vehicles – all of which may not be detected by the automated programs. </p>
<p>Consequently, manufacturers warn drivers of semi-automated vehicles that they must remain alert and ready to resume control in the case of adverse environmental conditions or unexpected events. </p>
<p>Because of this shared responsibility for control of the vehicle, we might expect legal problems in attributing responsibility when something goes wrong. Fault could rest with a human driver who fails to take control when required to do so, or with a manufacturer whose product is faulty.</p>
<p>While some car manufacturers – such as <a href="http://support.volvocars.com/uk/cars/Pages/owners-manual.aspx?mc=v526&my=2016&sw=15w46&article=548956727ac6edfbc0a80151522a4edc">Volvo with its Pilot assist</a> – say that drivers bear responsibility for controlling the car even when the semi-automated program is used, the situation might be more complex. </p>
<p>It may be that the semi-automated program itself causes the problem. <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-gm-selfdriving-idUKKBN13N2CY">News reports from the US</a> say that federal authorities have already expressed concern that a safety device on a semi-automated car may itself cause accidents. In these situations it may not be so easy for manufacturers to escape liability.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/75294/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marilyn McMahon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Driverless cars may cut the number of traffic offences but they could open up a whole new area of litigation - who’s responsible for any crash?
Marilyn McMahon, Associate Professor in Law, Deakin University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/68275
2017-01-05T13:14:22Z
2017-01-05T13:14:22Z
We made a lightweight trauma pack to save and change lives on rural African roads
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147550/original/image-20161125-32035-8y3ud4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">These packs have already been deployed to villages in Zambia</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s a common misconception that design is about aesthetics; it’s a great deal more involved than that. Sometimes good design can mean the difference between poverty and prosperity, or even life and death.</p>
<p>For the past few years, we have been investigating how we could help alleviate the effects of road traffic injuries in Zambia. Collaborating with Judith Hall, an anaesthesiologist at Cardiff University, who initiated the project, our aim was to develop lifesaving equipment using a <a href="http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/500871-trauma-pack-to-save-countless-lives">multi-disciplinary approach</a>. We provided the design and ethnographic expertise and Hall gave her medical knowledge on what we needed.</p>
<p>Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are one of the <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs358/en/">leading causes of death</a> among young people in Zambia. Some 70% of those who die in road accidents are the <a href="http://zambianroadsafety.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/strategic_plan_web.pdf">“breadwinners” in their household</a>, which has resulted in RTIs becoming a major contributor to spiralling poverty in the region. In total, RTIs cost developing countries between <a href="http://zambianroadsafety.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/strategic_plan_web.pdf">1% and 5% of GDP</a> so although these incidents may feel like personal matters, they have huge social ramifications.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147559/original/image-20161125-32046-xrydaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147559/original/image-20161125-32046-xrydaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147559/original/image-20161125-32046-xrydaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147559/original/image-20161125-32046-xrydaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147559/original/image-20161125-32046-xrydaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147559/original/image-20161125-32046-xrydaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147559/original/image-20161125-32046-xrydaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The packs are intuitively designed and require no training to use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Proper treatment in the immediate aftermath of an RTI makes a major difference between whether a victim lives or dies. Should they survive, it decreases the chances of major, lifelong disabilities, the consequences of which have very serious implications for the future of their dependants. Unfortunately, developing nations cannot normally afford medically trained personnel, nor the trauma equipment needed – a standard trauma pack can cost around £600 (around US$750). </p>
<p>It was with this in mind that we began to develop a pack specifically for this context. The resulting kit, which includes a neck brace, splints and bandages, can be used to stabilise RTI victims before they can receive proper medical attention. Each item is designed to prevent non-qualified first responders doing more harm than good. The neck brace, for example, has no access hole for a tracheotomy to be performed. </p>
<p>The pack and each item it contains is made from locally available materials using processes that are viable locally. The neck braces, for example, are formed from hand-waxed and sealed cardboard, while drainpipes are used as the basis for splints, and bicycle inner tubes for pressure bandages. It can be stored for long periods of time in village leaders’ houses along major roads and will not degrade in rainy conditions. As the majority of the RTI first responders in Zambia are illiterate and untrained, the pack is made up of intuitive, life-saving equipment with easy-to-understand instructions that walk users through the globally-standard <a href="https://www.resus.org.uk/resuscitation-guidelines/abcde-approach/">ABCDE sequence of care</a>.</p>
<p>The trauma pack concept was also conceived as an enterprise development opportunity for manufacture and deployment in Zambia, using cheap, accessible, local materials and low-tech manufacturing processes. And the design – which was developed with the active involvement of 105 people from all walks of life in Zambia, and 25 medical experts in Britain – costs around 95% less than those available in the UK.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147561/original/image-20161125-32054-1be5lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147561/original/image-20161125-32054-1be5lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147561/original/image-20161125-32054-1be5lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147561/original/image-20161125-32054-1be5lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147561/original/image-20161125-32054-1be5lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147561/original/image-20161125-32054-1be5lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147561/original/image-20161125-32054-1be5lyb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sample neck brace from the pack.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We are now looking to run a pilot project in Zambia, and trial the trauma pack along a section of the Great Eastern Road, a major highway. From there we want to build the necessary links and knowledge, and get approval for the construction of a sustainable infrastructure to produce and deploy the packs.</p>
<h2>Global help</h2>
<p>Though our team’s work will hopefully have a great effect on the treatment of RTI victims in Sub-Saharan Africa, use of the pack is not limited to this situation. We have started looking at how some of the concepts can be used outside the developing world, and have consulted experts in the British National Health Service, Red Cross, Welsh Ambulance Service and the UK’s Ministry of Defence to create a new, patent-pending design to be manufactured in the UK and sold in Europe and beyond. We are in the process of signing a licensing agreement with a manufacturer, and the first of these Zambia pack spin-offs is aimed at meeting the needs of the International Committee of the Red Cross.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147560/original/image-20161125-32026-d3posv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147560/original/image-20161125-32026-d3posv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147560/original/image-20161125-32026-d3posv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147560/original/image-20161125-32026-d3posv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147560/original/image-20161125-32026-d3posv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147560/original/image-20161125-32026-d3posv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147560/original/image-20161125-32026-d3posv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Red Cross pack is specifically designed for single use in times of humanitarian crisis.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Red Cross Pack is very light, very cheap and compact. Like the Zambia Pack, it is designed to allow people with minimal training to treat the most common traumas. Though it was inspired by the Zambia Pack, the design is entirely different: it is a single-use, single-patient kit for deployment in large-scale humanitarian emergencies such as earthquakes. </p>
<p>Each of these packs is suitable for adults of all sizes and contains a low-cost three-in-one size neck brace (patent pending) and a six-in-one size arm and leg splint kit (patent pending). Both the neck brace and splints are made from corrugated plastic, and the whole kit is contained in a light-weight cardboard box with clear infographic directions.</p>
<p>We also have a series of other project ideas for the developing world. Plans are fluid at the moment, but in the mid-term we would like to set up a not-for-profit organisation co-owned by our two universities to support developments through grants, charitable donations and profit-making activities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68275/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I am a Co-I for an MRC-funded research project connected to this work (to carry out a series of trials in Namibia). I am also the PI of a research project funded by the Life Sciences Bridging Fund that focuses on the development of this pack for production. Lastly I have applied as PI for funding from The Waterloo Foundation which, if successful, will support the development of the pack into sustainable manufacture, distribution and use in Zambia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clara Watkins works for Cardiff Metropolitan University owns shares in the Trauma Pack. </span></em></p>
A project that aims to change the fate of accident victims in developing countries.
Steve Gill, Professor of Product Design, Cardiff Metropolitan University
Clara Watkins, Lecturer and Research Officer in Product Design, Cardiff Metropolitan University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/64972
2016-09-09T10:26:46Z
2016-09-09T10:26:46Z
Drugs fatalities overtake car fatalities for the first time
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137080/original/image-20160908-25249-1ct7wc5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-276472910/stock-photo-man-injecting-himself-with-a-small-hypodermic-needle-possibly-administering-medication-for-a-disease-such-as-diabetes.html?src=NLK3gv9RXwwEBCFGAW-lgA-1-0">NAS CREATIVES/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Seven years ago, <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/17/local/la-me-drugs-epidemic-20110918">fatalities from opiates</a> overtook fatalities due to road accidents in the US. Sadly, the same phenomenon is now playing out in England. The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show that last year, 1,732 people died in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-main-results-2015">traffic accidents in the UK</a> compared with <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsrelatedtodrugpoisoninginenglandandwales/2015registrations">1,989</a> who died due to opiates in England alone.</p>
<p>New psychoactive substances, referred to as “legal highs”, have <a href="https://theconversation.com/stories-about-legal-high-deaths-are-bound-up-in-media-hysteria-24360">received significant media attention</a>, and deaths due to these drugs have risen by 40%, but opiate deaths now outnumber legal-high deaths by 19 to 1, despite a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/drug-misuse-findings-from-the-2015-to-2016-csew">steady decline</a> in opiate use in England and Wales over the last decade.</p>
<p>Of course, opiates are not the only problem – deaths due to cocaine have reached the highest on record at 320, increasing by nearly 30% since last year – but opiates are what we should really be focusing on. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137200/original/image-20160909-13363-1uib24s.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137200/original/image-20160909-13363-1uib24s.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137200/original/image-20160909-13363-1uib24s.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137200/original/image-20160909-13363-1uib24s.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137200/original/image-20160909-13363-1uib24s.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137200/original/image-20160909-13363-1uib24s.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137200/original/image-20160909-13363-1uib24s.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Drug deaths.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Office for National Statistics</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Premature and preventable</h2>
<p>Drug-related deaths of males outnumber those of females by three to one and 60% of deaths occur in 30- to 49-year-olds – compared with an <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/lifeexpectancyatbirthandatage65bylocalareasinenglandandwales/2015-11-04">average life expectancy</a> for the rest of the population of 80. </p>
<p>Health complications resulting from drug use do not entirely explain this inequality in life span. A range of factors are likely to be involved. Purity and quality of heroin are not as critical, borne out by <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/add.13516/full">decades of research</a>. Rather it is the risk of accidental overdose by more experienced and tolerant heroin users. Equally, combining heroin with alcohol and or a benzodiazapine such as diazepam <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0376871612002785">increases the risk of death</a>. In 1993, one in four deaths were attributed to combining alcohol with opiates; this has now reached one in two. </p>
<p>In 2010, the newly elected Conservative government introduced a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/drug-strategy-2010">new treatment strategy</a>. The policy emphasised the importance of achieving abstinence from drugs rather than merely reducing the harm they can cause. This recovery agenda may have inadvertently contributed to the rise in drug deaths. Unfortunately, even if abstinence is achieved, the <a href="http://bit.ly/2cbURiS">odds of relapsing</a> are high. Abstinence <a href="http://www.bjmp.org/files/2013-6-1/bjmp-2013-6-1-a601.pdf">reduces the ability</a> to tolerate previously manageable doses of heroin, resulting in an overdose for some. </p>
<h2>Treatment risk</h2>
<p>Treatment does reduce mortality. A <a href="http://www.nta.nhs.uk/uploads/trendsdrugmisusedeaths1999to2014.pdf">recent report</a> showed that most opiate deaths were of people not in treatment. Treatment usually involves providing a substitute drug with the aim of weaning the individual off heroin. Methadone and buprenorphine are commonly used to do this. But there are two critical factors, retaining people in treatment and what happens when treatment finishes. The month following treatment is particularly important as a person’s tolerance to opiates will have reduced, increasing the risk of overdose <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/add.13087/full">if the person relapses</a>. Following up people at this critical stage could help reduce the risk of fatality. </p>
<p>But the challenge is how to engage those who are not in treatment. Attracting this group requires a more radical approach. <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australia-needs-drug-consumption-rooms-53215">Drug consumption rooms</a> provide a safe place for people to use their drugs, providing clean syringes for those who inject heroin. These facilities have an impressive record of reducing fatalities due to drug use. And, just as important, they are the first step towards engaging a marginalised group into health and social care. We don’t need any more evidence as to their value – we need what politicians crave: <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3109/14659891.2016.1143049">public support</a>.</p>
<p>Naloxone can also temporarily reverse the effects of an opiate overdose. Making this drug available to opiate users and their families offers the potential to reduce fatalities. Scotland has pioneered this by implementing a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/add.13265/pdf">national naloxone policy</a> and new regulations in England have <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/widening-the-availability-of-naloxone/widening-the-availability-of-naloxone">allowed this approach to be mirrored</a>. This development gives workers and heroin users access and permission to administer naloxone when an overdose occurs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137083/original/image-20160908-25260-hhapzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137083/original/image-20160908-25260-hhapzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137083/original/image-20160908-25260-hhapzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137083/original/image-20160908-25260-hhapzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137083/original/image-20160908-25260-hhapzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137083/original/image-20160908-25260-hhapzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137083/original/image-20160908-25260-hhapzw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Naloxone can reverse the effects of an opiate overdose.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-418417357/stock-photo-layton-utah-march-11-2016-vial-of-naloxone-drug-which-is-used-for-opiate-drug-overdose-it-is-now-available-to-patients-without-a-prescription-or-over-the-counter.html?src=HeShWLVmobUTJtghilzrNw-1-0">PureRadiancePhoto/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A glimpse into the future?</h2>
<p>The US has witnessed a 200% rise in prescription-opiate deaths since the millennium, driven by <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajt.13776/full">increasing availability and lower costs</a>. The regulatory and marketing environments differ in the US and the UK. In the UK, open marketing of opiates is prohibited and there are stricter controls and monitoring of prescribing. But current drug control measures are outdated and <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3109/14659891.2014.980861">easily circumvented by the internet</a>.</p>
<p>So we need to carefully monitor the use and misuse of a range of prescription drugs such as tramadol. Tramadol is an analgesic used for moderate to severe pain. Prescriptions for tramadol rose dramatically over the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsrelatedtodrugpoisoninginenglandandwales/2015registrations">last decade</a>, as did deaths thought to be the result of misusing the drug. This prompted new regulations which came into force last year with the aim of curbing tramadol-related deaths. This year’s ONS data shows that one year after the introduction of these regulations deaths have reduced, but we will need to see if this trend continues.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137202/original/image-20160909-13345-2cdpp9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137202/original/image-20160909-13345-2cdpp9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137202/original/image-20160909-13345-2cdpp9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137202/original/image-20160909-13345-2cdpp9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137202/original/image-20160909-13345-2cdpp9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137202/original/image-20160909-13345-2cdpp9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137202/original/image-20160909-13345-2cdpp9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137202/original/image-20160909-13345-2cdpp9.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tramadol deaths.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Office for National Statistics</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A clear measure of the UK government’s ambition to reduce inequality is <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/clare-bambra/theresa-may-health-inequalities_b_11716312.html">halting the rise in drug overdoses</a>. Avoidable fatalities due to drugs serve as a barometer of how equal our society is and how we respond to individual vulnerability. We all lose out when an individual dies this way.</p>
<p>Public Health England has responded to the trend in drug fatalities, publishing <a href="http://www.nta.nhs.uk/uploads/phe-understanding-preventing-drds.pdf">several recommendations</a>. There are some welcome aims but they could be bolder. The time has come to introduce drug consumption rooms – it’s a life or death decision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64972/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Hamilton is affiliated with Alcohol Research UK.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Monaghan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Opiates have emerged as a significant threat to public health in the UK.
Ian Hamilton, Lecturer in Mental Health, University of York
Mark Monaghan, Lecturer in Crimimology and Social Policy, Loughborough University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/62808
2016-07-26T13:09:58Z
2016-07-26T13:09:58Z
Here’s what maths can teach us about how to design the perfect car park
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131771/original/image-20160725-31190-en1hc0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81696597@N00/22763815812/sizes/l">Abhijit B Photos/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There can be few things as frustrating as being stuck in a car park for four hours on a scorching Sunday afternoon; yet this was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-36782534">the unhappy fate</a> of shoppers at a new multi-storey grid car park at an IKEA store in Reading, UK. </p>
<p>The delays were caused by a few factors, including a particularly busy adjacent road, the popularity of the store’s opening weekend and the convergence of vehicles on a single exit ramp. Despite the retailer’s major £4m investment in constructing good access routes, the infrastructure simply could not cope with the volume of traffic leaving the car park. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"754749773987586048"}"></div></p>
<p>As well as prompting a <a href="http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/ikea-reading-investigating-cause-sundays-11630115">full-scale investigation</a> by IKEA, such chaos invites us to consider how further gridlock can be prevented. Fortunately, mathematics can provide some basic guiding principles, as we consider how to design the perfect car park. </p>
<h2>A numbers game</h2>
<p>First, we need to decide how many parking spaces there should be. This is a perennial problem, to which there is no prescriptive answer. Too many spaces are costly and look ugly, while too few spaces result in distraught and dissatisfied customers. Yet some relatively simple maths can help us avoid the worst congestion. </p>
<p>Suppose that daily peak demand averages, say, <em>m</em> cars. We can get a sense of how much the number of cars is likely to vary from the average using <a href="http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html">standard deviation</a> – let’s call this value <em>s</em>. If <em>s</em> is small, it means that the daily peak demand is quite consistent. If <em>s</em> is larger, it means that there’s a bit more variation; perhaps attendance spikes on Sundays, or over long weekends, or during sale periods. </p>
<p>Once we know these values, we can use the normal distribution to evaluate the probability that a car park with a given number of spaces will overflow. For example, if <em>m</em>=750 and <em>s</em>=100, then a car park with 800 spaces will overflow on 31% of days, whereas a car park with 1,000 spaces will overflow on only 1% of days. Greater accuracy can be achieved by modifying this simple model to focus on the more extreme events.</p>
<p>While avoiding excess capacity is an important consideration for some organisations, such as airlines, it’s better for car parks to err on the side of generosity. While some travellers might be willing to <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-67221/Scandal-overbooked-holiday-flights.html">catch later flights</a> in return for compensation, drivers are likely to find the prospect of being redirected to a multi-storey car park two blocks away somewhat less appealing.</p>
<h2>The perfect angle</h2>
<p>It’s also better to err on the side of generosity when it comes to the size of individual parking bays: my own modestly sized vehicle is pitted with craters caused by other doors banging into my side panels. </p>
<p>Bays should leave ample space around the cars to enable pedestrian access and to allow for the axle tracks of turning circles, so that vehicles can enter and exit smartly without cutting the corners of adjacent bays. This can also be achieved with sufficiently wide access lanes, so that cars are parallel to the lines when entering their bays.</p>
<p>Now consider the layout of parking spaces. Assuming that the building has a rectangular plan, there are some simple rules that ensure a convenient and dense population of bays. Rather than having access lanes around the perimeter of each storey, moving the lanes inwards allows us to place bays around the edges and increases the number of spaces. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131805/original/image-20160725-23692-saveoc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131805/original/image-20160725-23692-saveoc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131805/original/image-20160725-23692-saveoc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131805/original/image-20160725-23692-saveoc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131805/original/image-20160725-23692-saveoc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131805/original/image-20160725-23692-saveoc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131805/original/image-20160725-23692-saveoc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131805/original/image-20160725-23692-saveoc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Use your space well.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Dead ends are undesirable, as they require drivers to reverse against the flow of traffic, so ramps should be located to avoid these. One-way flow systems throughout the car park also helps to avoid congestion and confusion, while allowing access lanes to be narrower than for a two-way flow of traffic.</p>
<p>A diagonal layout of car parking spaces offers significant advantages over a rectangular layout. Imagine proceeding along an access lane and finding an empty bay. With a rectangular layout you need to change your direction of travel by 90 degrees, which requires a substantial lane width to accommodate your turning circle. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131838/original/image-20160725-31195-1a8nfpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131838/original/image-20160725-31195-1a8nfpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131838/original/image-20160725-31195-1a8nfpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131838/original/image-20160725-31195-1a8nfpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=349&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131838/original/image-20160725-31195-1a8nfpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131838/original/image-20160725-31195-1a8nfpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131838/original/image-20160725-31195-1a8nfpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=438&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Doing it right.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But for a diagonal layout, the bays on both sides are inclined towards you. These require less course adjustment and the access lane can be narrower, so we can fit more parking bays into the same space. For a large car park, a 45 degree bay angle <a href="http://usir.salford.ac.uk/36977/">leads to</a> an efficiency saving of 23%. You also need to change your direction of travel much less, so manoeuvring is easier and safer when later reversing out of the bay.</p>
<h2>The perfect parking lot</h2>
<p>Clearly, there should be at least as many exits as there are entrances. Ramps should be not so steep that they are dangerous for drivers who queue or stall on them. Nor must they be too flat, or they will occupy too much precious space. Other factors are important, including the car wheelbase, ramp length and curvature, and possible transitional ramps. </p>
<p>Isaac Newton’s <a href="http://www.physicsclassroom.com/class/newtlaws/Lesson-3/Newton-s-Second-Law">second law of motion</a> – which tells us that that the rate of an object’s acceleration depends on the mass of the object, and the magnitude of the force which acts upon it – together with a simple vector diagram, <a href="http://www.parkingconsultantsltd.com/rampfaqs.htm">help to balance</a> the car’s weight with the slope’s normal and frictional forces, to determine acceptable limits for the gradient. One in ten is a generally accepted maximum slope, with lesser gradients often preferred.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131840/original/image-20160725-31171-cctm0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131840/original/image-20160725-31171-cctm0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131840/original/image-20160725-31171-cctm0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131840/original/image-20160725-31171-cctm0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131840/original/image-20160725-31171-cctm0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131840/original/image-20160725-31171-cctm0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/131840/original/image-20160725-31171-cctm0m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A helix form car park in Newcastle city centre.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Helix-form_Car_Park_in_Newcastle_City_Centre_-_geograph.org.uk_-_1942522.jpg">Trevor Littlewood/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If one were to design a new car park from scratch, one of the best of all systems is epitomised by the helical car park design. With one entrance, simple traffic flow and one exit, it is safe for pedestrians and uses the available space efficiently. Crucially, it is also reasonably pretty. Perhaps IKEA should ditch its grid design, and give the helix a whirl.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Percy works for the University of Salford and published an article on car park design in the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications' membership magazine Mathematics Today in 2015.</span></em></p>
A mathematician shares some tips on how to avoid four-hour car park grid lock.
David Percy, Professor of Mathematics, University of Salford
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/56242
2016-07-22T10:09:32Z
2016-07-22T10:09:32Z
Drunk driving laws don’t match the research
<p>Emergency physicians learn to be prepared for anything thrown at us in the clinical arena. Personal life is a different story. Last year a drunk driver with multiple prior offenses and no valid driver’s license smashed a truck through the wall of my son’s daycare. </p>
<p>Fortunately, the children and staff were in undamaged areas. But just minutes before, my son and I had walked through the exact spot in the art room where the truck came to rest in a pile of debris. </p>
<p>Having worked in the ER for years, I’ve seen the aftermath of drunk driving often enough before, but that was the first time I had seen an accident caused by a drunk driver up close.</p>
<p>Drunk driving is a major public health problem in the U.S. In 2014 nearly one-third of the nation’s 32,675 traffic fatalities <a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812231">were alcohol-related</a>. This means a completely preventable death happened every 53 minutes in this country. </p>
<p>My brush with a drunk driver made me wonder about what practices and policies can help prevent accidents and fatalities. Research suggests lower blood alcohol concentration limits and interventions like ignition interlocks can make a big difference.</p>
<h2>Think you’re OK to drive?</h2>
<p>When drunk drivers come to the ER they often express surprise, disbelief or denial about their blood alcohol concentration (BAC) or their level of impairment. They often are drunker than they think they are. </p>
<p>Higher blood alcohol levels, no matter how “sober” you feel, can have a real impact on your ability to perform tasks that require concentration, such as driving. While people who drink more often may feel the effects of alcohol less acutely than someone who does not, their reflexes and judgment can still be impaired. And the more you drink, the harder it is to judge how intoxicated you are.</p>
<p>At least one study involving college students has shown that higher BACs are associated with an <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0023942">underestimation of an individual’s level of intoxication</a>. </p>
<p>Studies have also shown that increasing BAC is also associated with a <a href="http://bja.oxfordjournals.org/content/85/3/401.full.pdf">decreased reaction time</a>.
For instance, one study pointed to an average decreased reaction time of 120 milliseconds, just over a tenth of a second, associated with a blood alcohol content (BAC) level of 0.08, the legal limit. Traveling at 70 miles per hour, a drunk driver would travel for an additional 12 feet before reacting to a roadway hazard.</p>
<h2>Legal limit for blood alcohol is pretty high</h2>
<p>In 2000 Congress passed legislation making 0.08 the national standard for impaired driving in the United States. Under the law, states that did not <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/DOT/NHTSA/Planning%20Evaluation%20&%20Budget/Programs%20&%20Grants/Associated%20Files/08SanctionFAQ.pdf">adopt 0.08 as the standard</a> by 2004 faced cuts in federal highway funding. By the time the law was passed many states had already adopted the 0.08 standards, but some states used 0.10 as the standard.</p>
<p>The lowering of the limit was in response to a <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/people/injury/research/pub/alcohol-laws/08History/1_introduction.htm">1992 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration report to Congress</a> recommending this action as a way to reduce highway deaths. Implementation of these lower BAC laws has been associated with <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10875666">a decrease in alcohol-related highway fatalities</a>. But 0.08 is still a fairly high BAC level compared to other developed countries. </p>
<p>Among the largest industrialized countries, only the U.S., <a href="http://www.nhs.uk/chq/Pages/2096.aspx?categoryid=87&subcategoryid=871">United Kingdom</a> (with the exception of Scotland, which sets a lower limit) and <a href="http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/impaired-driving.shtml">Canada</a> permit BACs as high as 0.08. France, Germany, Italy and Australia currently set their BAC limit at 0.05. Japan has the lowest requirement of this group at 0.03. European countries in particular have sought lower BAC requirements in the past decades as part of an <a href="http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.54600">effort to decrease traffic deaths</a></p>
<p>When the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, made its recommendations to change EU laws to recommend a <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32001H0115&from=EN">BAC of 0.05</a> as the per se limit for impaired driving, they included supporting data, including fatality reductions, from countries with existing 0.05 BAC laws. </p>
<h2>There’s a big difference between 0.05 BAC and 0.08</h2>
<p>It might not take as many drinks as you think to slow your reaction time and make safe driving harder. </p>
<p>For the purposes of standardization, <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/impaired_driving/bac.html">a drink is defined</a> as 12 ounces of 5 percent alcohol beer, five ounces of 12 percent alcohol wine or one and a half ounces of 80 proof (40 percent alcohol) liquor. To account for an individual drinking over a longer period of time, subtract about 0.01 percent for each 40 minutes of drinking time. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=281&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118427/original/image-20160412-15861-1lysuyw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How many drinks does it take to get to the limit?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/drinkinganddriving/">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in a 160-pound man, two alcoholic beverages can bring about some loss of judgment, decreased ability to rapidly track a moving target and result in decreased ability to multitask. Women generally weighing less than men, would see a higher BAC per drink. </p>
<p>Three alcoholic drinks will bring a person’s blood alcohol level to a level of approximately 0.05 percent, which can impair the ability to rapidly focus vision, lower alertness, and decrease coordination to the point that steering becomes difficult and response to driving emergencies becomes blunted. </p>
<p>After approximately four alcoholic drinks, balance, vision and reaction time are often affected. It becomes harder to detect roadway dangers. Reasoning and information processing are <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/people/injury/research/pub/impaired_driving/BAC/impairment.pdf">often measurably impaired</a>. This corresponds most closely to a BAC of 0.08 percent, the limit set by most states for legal operation of a vehicle. </p>
<p>A blood alcohol of 0.10 percent is generally associated with a clear loss of reaction time and control. There will be reduced ability to maintain proper lane position or brake appropriately.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, as the BAC level climbs higher than 0.10 percent, it is associated with the progressively deteriorating ability to drive a vehicle safely. </p>
<p>Studies going back to the 1960s have demonstrated the correlation between BAC and accident risk. The <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Traffic+Techs/current/Relative+Risk+Calculated+For+Driver+Fatalities+In+Alcohol-Related+Crashes">relative risk of being in a crash</a> is 1.38 times higher at a BAC of 0.05 than 0.00. At 0.08, the risk is 2.69 times higher. At 0.10, the crash risk climbs to five times higher. </p>
<p>When you consider the medical evidence, including <a href="http://www.dhs.de/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/Pathways_for_Health-Project/reducing_drinking_and_driving_report.pdf">the physiological effects</a>, and the relative risk of crash, you can understand why some countries set the legal limit at 0.05 and why in 2013 the NTSB <a href="http://www.ntsb.gov/safety/safety-studies/Documents/SR1301.pdf">recommended that 0.05</a> become the new limit in the U.S.</p>
<h2>Ignition interlocks could stop drunk drivers</h2>
<p>Drunk driving is a tough problem to solve. One solution is to focus interventions on those who have a prior alcohol impaired driving arrest because they are at <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2853607/">higher risk of doing it again</a>. The reasons for this are not clear, but many drunk driving episodes are <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/drinkinganddriving/">linked to binge drinking</a> and not simply social drinking.</p>
<p>Ignition interlocks, which are essentially breathalyzers connected to the vehicle’s ignition system, could also make a difference. These devices ensure that the vehicle can only be started by a sober driver. They’ve have been around for many years and modern versions have features to resist tampering, and require intermittent rechecks to ensure the driver doesn’t drink after starting the vehicle. </p>
<p>All states use <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/state-ignition-interlock-laws.aspx">ignition interlocks to some degree</a>, but as of January 2016, only 23 states require interlocks for all DUI offenders, which are sometimes called universal ignition interlock laws. The <a href="http://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/PR20121211.aspx">NTSB recommended</a> the use of ignition interlocks for all first time offenders in 2012. </p>
<p>A 2015 study in the American Journal of Public Health, found that states with these laws have <a href="http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303058">fewer alcohol involved crash deaths</a>. Researchers compared data for 18 states which implemented universal ignition interlock laws to 32 states that had not. In those 18 states, universal interlock laws <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-drunkdriving-locks-idUSKCN0WK2IH">saved 918 lives</a>, a 15 percent reduction in deaths related to drunk driving.</p>
<p>It is every driver’s responsibility to understand that there is no “safe” BAC level. It’s simple: The more you drink, the less you are able to drive safely, and the higher the likelihood of an accident. For those who ignore the evidence and the law, at least there is a technical solution that could help stop further loss of life to this preventable problem.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was updated on July 22, 2016 to correct information about BAC in the United Kingdom.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad J. Uren serves on the advisory board for the Michigan chapter of Mothers Against Drunk Driving. </span></em></p>
Research suggests lower blood alcohol concentration limits and interventions like ignition interlocks can make a big difference.
Brad J. Uren, Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, University of Michigan
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/62495
2016-07-15T00:40:45Z
2016-07-15T00:40:45Z
Should Tesla’s autopilot cars be allowed on public roads following accidents?
<p>Humans are terrible at driving. The US Department of Transport estimates that <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/2015/2014-traffic-deaths-drop-but-2015-trending-higher">94% of crashes</a> are due to the driver. </p>
<p>We drive too fast. We get distracted. We make poor decisions.</p>
<p>If <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety/fatal_road_crash_database.aspx">history is anything to go by</a>, more than 1,000 people are likely to die on Australian roads in the next year. Each death is a tragedy for the families and friends of those killed. </p>
<p>And it’s also a big drain on our economy. Each fatal accident costs <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2010/report_118.aspx">around $2 million</a>. The total cost on our economy from all car accidents is more than $17 billion per year.</p>
<p>Autonomous cars are going to be <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/520746/data-shows-googles-robot-cars-are-smoother-safer-drivers-than-you-or-i/">far better drivers</a>. There is therefore a moral imperative to get them onto our roads as soon as possible.</p>
<p>They will also bring many other benefits such as reducing congestion, lowering transport costs and bringing personal mobility to the elderly, disabled and young.</p>
<p>Tesla, more than any car company, has been <a href="http://www.wired.com/2015/10/tesla-self-driving-over-air-update-live/">pushing the field</a>. Its technology is impressive and improving rapidly.</p>
<h2>Accidents</h2>
<p>Accidents are, however, happening at an increasing rate as autonomous cars become more common.</p>
<p>On Valentine’s Day this year, one of Google’s autonomous cars <a href="http://www.wired.com/2015/10/tesla-self-driving-over-air-update-live/">caused its first crash</a> when it pulled out in front of a bus. Fortunately, no one was hurt.</p>
<p>Just three months later, on May 7, a Tesla S driving autonomously on a 65mph (about 105kmh) limit road <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/30/tesla-autopilot-death-self-driving-car-elon-musk">drove into a truck</a> turning across the highway. The driver, Joshua Brown, who was sitting in the driving seat of the Tesla was killed. <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ee71bd075fb948308727b4bbff7b3ad8/self-driving-car-driver-died-after-crash-florida-first">According to reports</a>, he was watching a Harry Potter movie. </p>
<p>What actually happened in the lead up to the accident is currently under investigation.</p>
<p>Tesla <a href="https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/tragic-loss">issued a statement</a>, acknowledging the tragic loss, and saying their instructions require drivers who engage the autopilot mode to monitor the road and be ready to take back control at short notice. </p>
<p>And last Sunday in the US, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36783345">a second Tesla car crashed</a> while being used autonomously. No one was injured. But how long before a Tesla car kills an innocent member of the public, a pedestrian or person in another vehicle?</p>
<h2>Public safety</h2>
<p>Silicon Valley’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/28/silicon-valley-startup-failure-culture-success-myth">“fail fast” culture</a> may work for Facebook. No one is likely to be seriously hurt when their news feed is messed up. But fail fast is too risky for public safety.</p>
<p>Is it responsible for Tesla to release this technology into the wild when serious questions surround its safety?</p>
<p>Will the human driver monitor the road adequately? Will a human driver be able to take back control quickly enough? </p>
<p>It is not sufficient that the human driver gave consent; the rest of us using the roads have not given our consent. </p>
<p>Since human lives are at stake, drug companies do not get to test their new products on the general population. Should car companies be allowed to do so? </p>
<p>Tesla plans to put out a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/12/tesla-car-crash-montana-elon-musk-self-driving-cars">blog post to educate Tesla owners</a> on how to use the autonomous features of their cars safely. I doubt this is enough. </p>
<p>The US Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has defined <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/U.S.+Department+of+Transportation+Releases+Policy+on+Automated+Vehicle+Development">five different levels of autonomous driving</a>, ranging from zero to four (level zero is where the driver remains in control at all times). </p>
<p>Should level three autonomy be allowed where a human driver may be required to take back control at any moment? Or should we only allow level four where the system will work safely even if the human driver fails to take back control promptly.</p>
<p>Should Tesla be allowed to push updates out without extensive testing?</p>
<p>On average, one person dies for every 100 million miles (160 million kilometres) driven. According to Tesla, this was the <a href="https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/tragic-loss">first fatality in 130 million miles</a> (210 million kilometres) of use of its autopilot software driving autonomously. </p>
<p>This would suggest that Tesla’s autonomy is about the level of a human driver. This is probably not good enough to be giving it control. Remember that humans are still having to take over when the driving gets more difficult. I would want autonomous cars to be much safer before we give them control. </p>
<h2>Safety review</h2>
<p>Regulatory authorities are waking up to these concerns. StaySafe, the joint standing committee of the NSW parliament focused on road safety, is in the middle of an inquiry into driverless vehicles and road safety.</p>
<p>We need to act swiftly to update the rules and the regulatory environment. For instance, none of the legislation introduced to permit driverless cars onto the roads of California, Nevada, South Australia and elsewhere require autonomous cars to be distinguishable from human-driven cars. </p>
<p><a href="http://thefutureofai.blogspot.com/2016/06/motherboard-ai-professor-proposes.html?q=Turing">In my testimony</a> to the StaySafe committee, I argued that we need to put special plates on such cars or even a magenta flashing light.</p>
<p>A friend who owns a Tesla told me of a situation they encountered recently where this was needed.</p>
<p>The driver of a car in a lane being merged expected his Tesla to speed up or slow down to create a suitable gap. But Tesla’s software is not programmed for courtesy. It continued to drive at a constant speed. My friend had to take back control to prevent a high speed collision. </p>
<p>When we started to build aeroplanes 100 years ago, anything went. But we quickly constructed a strong regulatory framework to ensure public safety. We need to build similar safeguards into the emerging industry for driverless cars.</p>
<p>Until this has happened, we need to question whether Tesla’s autopilot should be allowed on our roads.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62495/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Toby Walsh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Two Tesla cars running on autopilot have crashed this year, and one driver was killed. It raises the question of whether the company’s autonomous driving system is safe for our roads.
Toby Walsh, Professor of AI at UNSW, Research Group Leader, Data61
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/60543
2016-06-13T20:11:35Z
2016-06-13T20:11:35Z
Paralysed with fear: why do we freeze when frightened?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/125467/original/image-20160607-31933-1gxta5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C624%2C2580%2C1517&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There's a good reason why we find ourselves unable to move sometimes when we're afraid. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kctamvakis/13445280474/">Konstantinos Tamvakis/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most people are probably familiar with the classic <a href="http://psychcentral.com/lib/fight-or-flight/">fight or flight</a> response to a feared stimulus. If a snake were to fall from the ceiling on top of you as you read this, you have two options: fight off the snake or get away from it as quickly as possible. </p>
<p>The fight or flight response is a primitive and powerful survival reaction. Once the brain has perceived a danger or threat, bucketloads of adrenalin course through our veins, increasing heart rate, pumping blood to muscles, and moving our attention toward a very singular focus: fighting off or getting away from the threat.</p>
<p>We become so singularly goal-directed in that moment, we may not process (and therefore cannot remember) any extraneous details such as the colour of the snake, or what we actually did to get it off us and run. Many people report “operating on instinct” with no clear memory of how they got away from, or fought off a danger.</p>
<h2>Who will fight rather than flee?</h2>
<p>People who are more “<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-6494.2010.00636.x/full">approach motivated</a>” (such as extroverts, risk-takers), tend to perceive the reward in situations. For example, if asked to try spider soup for the first time, an approach-motivated individual might think “how interesting, I wonder if it will taste better than it looks? If not, at least I can put a photo of me eating spiders on Facebook and impress all my friends”. </p>
<p>These people may be more inherently inclined to approach a threat, a “fight” response.</p>
<p>People who are “avoidant motivated” (neurotic) tend to perceive the risks/negatives in situations. “Spider soup! How could that possibly be safe? It’s going to be disgusting or poisonous and then I’ll throw up in front of everyone and embarrass myself”. </p>
<p>These people may be inherently inclined to avoid a threat, a “flight” response.</p>
<p>Despite the largely unconscious triggering of the threat response, as well as the personality types that influence your inherent inclination to fight or flee, there’s also an element of judgement and decision-making involved here. I’m more likely to approach and fight if I think I have what it takes to manage a threat. </p>
<p>If I’m a qualified snake handler, I’ll get a fright if a snake drops on me unexpectedly, but I’ll quickly judge that I have the skills to deal with it.</p>
<p>There is a third possible response to threat, and that is the “freeze” response to danger. At face value, freezing when faced with a threat does not appear to be as obviously adaptive as the fight or flight response.</p>
<h2>Is freeze merely an extension of surprise?</h2>
<p>Surprise is the emotion we feel when an unexpected event occurs, and we need to stop and process the scene in order to decide whether to fight or flee. The facial expression of surprise serves a functional purpose: our eyes widen to improve our peripheral vision to better process our surroundings, and we open our mouth and gasp in preparation to scream and/or run.</p>
<p>People also <a href="http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2010/09/28/0956797610384746.abstract">come to a standstill</a> when surprised, as they devote all their energy to deciding whether what is unfolding before them is a threat, a joke, a harmless incident. </p>
<p>Often bystanders cop (unfair) flak for not immediately intervening during an unexpected event such as an assault; but typically people are so shocked they remain rooted to the spot. In some cases a “freeze” response is more an extension of a “surprise” response.</p>
<h2>Playing dead</h2>
<p>A genuinely overwhelming and paralysing freeze response is <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3181681/">thought to occur</a> when neither fight or flight is available to you. That is, you have been so overpowered, overwhelmed or trapped, there is no option to either flee or fight. </p>
<p>Given our evolutionary history this probably occurred most often during hunting (the sabre-tooth tiger has the better of you and there’s just no way out). So we do what a number of animals will, we “<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0149763401000562">play dead</a>”. </p>
<p>In the case of a genuine freeze response, this is not a conscious decision; our <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/317/5841/1079">primitive brain takes over</a> and <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-athletes-way/201405/neuroscientists-discover-the-roots-fear-evoked-freezing">immobilises us</a>. In doing so, it’s hoped our predator will lose interest and wander off.</p>
<p>It’s also speculated that freezing might have psychological benefits. Many people who “freeze” <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/acp.837/abstract">report little or no memory</a> of the trauma. Consider how that might preserve your sanity or protect you from psychological harm.</p>
<p>If, for example, you have been completely overpowered, such as in a rape or assault scenario, freezing might shut down your attentional systems, so that you don’t process what is happening to you. The event is so shocking, so overwhelming, so unbelievable, it’s speculated you experience a “<a href="http://www.jaapl.org/content/42/2/202.full.pdf">red-out</a>”, where intense emotions prevent you from encoding information about the trauma you are experiencing.</p>
<p>So although people may be taken aback after experiencing a freeze response, as with all our emotions, it likely serves a <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/evolution-the-self/201507/trauma-and-the-freeze-response-good-bad-or-both">functional and adaptive</a> purpose.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Rachael Sharman is a guest on tonight’s episode of Insight at 8.30pm on SBS, which asks how people react in emergencies.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60543/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachael Sharman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Freezing might have psychological benefits. Many people who “freeze” report little or no memory of the trauma.
Rachael Sharman, Lecturer in Psychology, University of the Sunshine Coast
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/48976
2015-10-21T00:07:50Z
2015-10-21T00:07:50Z
The ‘fatal five’ causes of road trauma: who’s in control?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/98357/original/image-20151014-12614-3xb71i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The makers of GPS devices are among the many factors and actors whose role in road safety has not been fully considered.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/litandmore/3632167092/in/photolist-6wXNJy-8A8MvT-cT211Y-2hYq6-5twC7S-9tVkuU-9sLbw-oqMYmY-danU6J-86Ld4F-4MytfK-7MDLio-8CM6cP-dw6baa-6z9Kvr-9zVFo4-9zVCqK-9zVFeM-9zYDY5-9zVFi6-9zVCqp-9zVFpk-9zYE1G-dJySRB-4R56yQ-8Dsb4J-8Ds9BN-ctchmu-ctchME-9zVFvv-aCbkhx-aCbkpx-apfxdu-pkxtzm-pkxr75-p466N8-pix7UQ-p45S3o-pkxt6q-p455cM-p45fKG-pkhXog-pkza16-pix6cm-p465eM-p45hEy-72cb1P-9XomHZ-8DrZ8C-oP6MZQ">flickr/Schu</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite significant progress, road transport systems continue to kill people on a <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/">scale that is comparable</a> to cancers, cardiovascular disease and respiratory diseases.</p>
<p>In Australian states such as Queensland, the focus is on reducing the <a href="https://www.racq.com.au/about/club-enews/fatal-five">“fatal five”</a> behaviours that cause road trauma: speeding, drink and drug driving, not wearing seatbelts, fatigue and driving while distracted. </p>
<p>Alongside this, <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/roads/safety/national_road_safety_strategy/">road safety strategy</a> calls for a shared responsibility for road safety that spans many stakeholders. They include road users, road and vehicle designers, policymakers, advocacy groups, road safety authorities and government.</p>
<p>While this is a step in the right direction, it is not entirely clear who shares this responsibility, or what the responsibilities are. Given contemporary <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/engineering-safer-world">accident models</a>, which argue that accidents are caused by a loss of control between actors and organisations across levels of a system, it seems pertinent to clarify two questions:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Who is in the road transport system (and thus shares the responsibility for road safety)?</p></li>
<li><p>What control measures do different actors and organisations enact in pursuit of road safety?</p></li>
</ul>
<p>If there are shared responsibilities, what do these entail? As part of a program of research that involves applying new systems thinking <a href="http://sunnyday.mit.edu/">models and methods</a> in road transport, we built a <a href="http://sunnyday.mit.edu/accidents/safetyscience-single.pdf">control structure model</a> of the Queensland road transport system to answer these questions. </p>
<p>Based on control theory, this type of model argues that the behaviour of complex systems is managed through control and feedback loops. Controls are constraints imposed by actors and organisations at higher levels on the behaviour of those below. Feedback loops provide information about the impact of the controls at the lower levels, enabling decision-makers to evaluate and adapt control strategies over time.</p>
<h2>What does the model reveal?</h2>
<p>We have reviewed and amended the model based on feedback from almost 50 experts in road safety and systems thinking. The initial findings are compelling.</p>
<p>The model shows the actors and organisations within the Queensland road transport system along with the control and feedback relationships between them. These actors and organisations span six levels: the road environment; local management and supervision; operational delivery and management; government agencies, industry associations, user groups, insurance companies and the courts; parliament and legislatures; and international influences. </p>
<p>The model gives an indication of the breadth of intertwined actors and organisations who share responsibility for road safety. The usual suspects are in there; however, there are many others that may not typically be thought of as playing a role in road safety. They include the media, manufacturers of devices such as mobile phones and in-vehicle GPS devices, organisations employing drivers, insurers, schools, parents and local council officers. </p>
<p>The forms of control adopted are interesting. These include managerial (such as resource allocation), organisational (such as policies and procedures), physical (such as signage and signals) and manufacturing-based controls (such as standards). Forms of control vary widely depending on which level of the road system you look at, which is similar to other safety-critical systems. </p>
<p>Another interesting thing to note is the relative strength of the controls. These can be weaker in comparison to other transportation domains such as aviation and rail transport. Consequently, there is more latitude for behaviour, and a range of societal influences readily affect the choices that drivers make.</p>
<p>For example, controls around impairment by drugs and alcohol are stronger in aviation, where pilots have to comply with strictly enforced rules on drug and alcohol consumption. Although road users are bound by similar rules, the nature of road transport systems is such that the rules cannot be so consistently enforced. Alcohol and drug testing in road transport systems will never achieve the same coverage and impact as it does in aviation systems. </p>
<p>The same can be said for controls around other fatal five behaviours such as fatigue and distraction, exacerbated by there being no accepted test (unlike blood alcohol testing) for these performance impairments.</p>
<p>A challenge for the road safety community is to strengthen the controls enacted on road users while ensuring they are practical to enact. This will likely involve developing new forms of control, rather than simply increasing the frequency with which current controls are applied. </p>
<p>In addition, the impact of wider societal influences on driver behaviour should be considered and exploited when developing controls.</p>
<h2>Knowledge gaps compromise safety</h2>
<p>Finally, the model raises questions about our current understanding of road traffic crashes. If road transport systems are so large and complex, comprising multiple actors and organisations tightly bound together by control relationships and feedback loops, then surely there are more factors that contribute to crashes? The model suggests that interactions not typically considered in road crash data analysis can play a role in creating or enabling the fatal five behaviours. </p>
<p>When, for example, will we consider mobile phone and vehicle designers and related standards as contributing to crashes involving drivers distracted by a mobile phone? Similarly, the causal chain in work-related driving crashes likely extends up to managers, chief executives, policymakers and ministers. </p>
<p>The current focus is on driver-, vehicle- and road environment-related factors. According to our model, this leaves a significant gap in the knowledge base.</p>
<p>On a positive note, the model also shows a diverse group is involved in attempting to minimise road trauma, and many control and feedback loops have been implemented. These are the hallmarks of safe systems. </p>
<p>The efforts of the road safety community should be applauded; we should not forget the significant and tangible impact that has been achieved to date. </p>
<p>There is still work to be done. It may be that, as well as focusing our efforts on improving road user behaviour on the front line, we should consider how to optimise other levels in road transport systems. We have spent a great deal of time focusing on the controlled; it may be time to focus on the controllers.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Paul will be taking part in an Ask An Expert Q&A on Twitter from 4 and 5pm on Wednesday, October 21. Head over to Twitter and post your questions about road safety using #AskAnExpert.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/48976/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Salmon receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gemma Read does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The focus is on reducing the “fatal five” behaviours that cause road trauma: speeding, drink and drug driving, not wearing seatbelts, fatigue and driving while distracted.
Paul Salmon, Professor, Human Factors, University of the Sunshine Coast
Gemma Read, Research Fellow in Human Factors & Sociotechnical Systems, University of the Sunshine Coast
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/47425
2015-09-15T20:17:16Z
2015-09-15T20:17:16Z
More Mad Max than max safety: teenagers don’t dream of safe cars
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/94755/original/image-20150915-16973-1ibafaw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Weapons and flames: this 'dream car' design by teenagers doesn't include any safety features.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bridie Scott-Parker</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Hardly a week goes by without <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/jandakot-car-crash-victims-family-urge-young-drivers-to-change/story-fnii5thm-1227520156323">calls for something to be done</a> to prevent any further deaths or serious injuries caused by young drivers on our roads.</p>
<p>We know that <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-approach-to-cut-death-toll-of-young-people-in-road-accidents-25372">young drivers are at greater risk</a> of being hurt or killed in a road crash, particularly when they have their P plate.</p>
<p>An important part of trying to keep them safe is to gain as much benefit as possible from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-parents-need-to-know-about-learner-drivers-four-key-lessons-30034">learner licence phase</a>. Another very important factor – and one often overlooked by eager young drivers and parents relieved at no longer accompanying their learner on every drive – is the car they drive.</p>
<p>Research consistently reveals that <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22133331">most P-platers</a> have access either to their own vehicle or the exclusive use of a family vehicle. P-platers in these situations report more risky driving behaviours such as speeding, not wearing seatbelts and showing off to friends.</p>
<p>When it comes to owning their own car, young drivers are more likely to drive <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022437515000559">smaller, older cars</a> with fewer crash-avoidance mechanisms, such as electronic stability control, and fewer crash-protection mechanisms, such as airbags.</p>
<p>Safer cars <a href="http://www.monash.edu.au/miri/research/reports/muarc292.html">improve</a> crash outcomes such as reducing death or injuries to drivers and others. But safer cars with crash-avoidance and crash-protection features are usually more expensive – not just to buy, but also to insure – meaning that they may be out of the reach of young drivers and/or their families. </p>
<p>Getting your own car is a very exciting part of being able to drive independently. Young drivers commonly form an opinion about what car they want long before they actually have a P-plate and the funds to buy and/or borrow the car from family members.</p>
<h2>Designing the ‘dream car’</h2>
<p>So what motivates their choice of a future car? I’ve analysed the features of 152 “dream cars” created by small groups of teenagers in Queensland and New South Wales. </p>
<p>We asked teens attending Year 11 in high school – many of whom are likely to have a learner licence already and be dreaming of their own car – to work together to design their dream car. Using this approach means that not only can we learn about what is most important but also we can gain some insight into peer pressure. Some designs were clearly drawn by groups made up of only boys, others by groups containing only girls, and the remaining groups containing a mix of boys and girls. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/94757/original/image-20150915-16968-lvore3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/94757/original/image-20150915-16968-lvore3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/94757/original/image-20150915-16968-lvore3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94757/original/image-20150915-16968-lvore3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94757/original/image-20150915-16968-lvore3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94757/original/image-20150915-16968-lvore3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94757/original/image-20150915-16968-lvore3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/94757/original/image-20150915-16968-lvore3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">No guns but wings this time. There was a difference in the ‘dream car’ designs of boys and girls.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bridie Scott-Parker</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here are the most common features.</p>
<p><strong>1. Standard vehicle features</strong></p>
<p>At least one standard vehicle feature, such as headlights, steering wheels, seat and seatbelts, was included on three-quarters of the designs. This is a good sign – we want young drivers in cars with seatbelts.</p>
<p><strong>2. Safety vehicle features</strong></p>
<p>One or more safety vehicle features, such as airbags and traction control, were noted on only one-third of designs. This is not a good sign – we want every young driver in a car with multiple safety features. Only two designs featured an anti-lock braking system (ABS), a vital safety feature which can prevent the young driver from crashing in the first place.</p>
<p><strong>3. Luxury vehicle features</strong></p>
<p>Four out of five designs mentioned luxury features such as fancy rims and paint, car body attachments and extra lights (in addition to headlights, brake lights, hazard lights/indicators). This tells us that young drivers are highly focused on how their car looks, and not necessarily on whether the car will keep them out of a crash or protect them if they do crash.</p>
<p><strong>4. Bizarre vehicle features</strong></p>
<p>There is no other way than “bizarre” to categorise features such as guns and armoury, spikes, wings and a selfie booth. Guns and/or armoury featured on nearly one in seven designs, and spikes on tyres and/or the vehicle body featured on ten designs. Such things certainly won’t help keep them out of that crash, or protect them if they do crash.</p>
<p><strong>5. Other vehicle features</strong></p>
<p>One in eight designs had features such as a roof rack, a pocket for their phone, or a bike rack. </p>
<p>So what do these five observations imply? It means that we need to better educate young people about safety before they get their P-plates and are buying or driving their “dream car”. We need to educate them about the importance of driving as safe a car as possible, rather than dreaming about mag wheels and psychedelic paint. Instead, we need them to dream about traction control and curtain airbags, reversing and blind-spot cameras.</p>
<h2>The parents can help</h2>
<p>Parents also play a pivotal role in the car that young people ultimately drive. Perplexingly, however, <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18054603">research</a> has revealed that while parents are concerned about their child’s safety, they often intend to buy them a smaller, older car or a car with reduced crashworthiness.</p>
<p>Many parents don’t know the safety features they should seek in a car for themselves, let alone their young driver, and they don’t know how safety features such as ABS actually work. </p>
<p>This tells us we need to get parents and their teenagers on the same page before they even begin to drive. Parents and young drivers could investigate the safety of the family car, with a multitude of websites summarising the crashworthiness of <a href="http://www.howsafeisyourcar.com.au/">new</a> and <a href="http://www.racq.com.au/cars-and-driving/cars/buying-a-car">used</a> cars.</p>
<p>Parents and their teenagers could work together to investigate exactly how these safety features prevent a crash and/or protect in the event of a crash.</p>
<p>We know P-platers are more likely to crash now than in any other stage of their driving lifetime. So doesn’t it make sense that one simple step to help keep them safe is to make sure they drive the safest car possible?</p>
<p>We need to start a conversation around how we make this happen. Education alone is insufficient, but it is a vital part in a much larger plan.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Bridie Scott-Parker will be on hand for an Author Q&A between 11am and noon AEST on Wednesday, September 16, 2015. Post your questions in the comments section below.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47425/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bridie Scott-Parker receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council via a Research Fellowship. </span></em></p>
Teenagers are more interested in gadgets and flashy desig in their first car than they are about safety features. So how do we make them think safety is important?
Bridie Scott-Parker, Research Fellow, University of the Sunshine Coast
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/41324
2015-05-08T09:53:32Z
2015-05-08T09:53:32Z
Depression common on college campuses; graduate students more at risk
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80736/original/image-20150506-10961-mkprvt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Suicides are the second leading cause of death on college campuses. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&search_tracking_id=PXYBTGr-noxxRYHvoh47xg&searchterm=depression&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=197995073">Girl Image via www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Graduate <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24711096">students experience significant stress </a> and are more prone to depression and anxiety than other groups of students. They report greater levels of eating disorders, substance abuse and feelings of hopelessness.</p>
<p>A recent report from the University of California, <a href="http://ga.berkeley.edu/wellbeingreport/">found</a> 47% of doctoral students and 37% of master’s degree students, who were surveyed, to be depressed. Furthermore, 64% of graduate students in arts and humanities <a href="http://ga.berkeley.edu/wellbeingreport/">showed higher levels</a> of depression and suicidal thoughts. Based on the university’s <a href="http://grad.berkeley.edu/admissions/rankings-stats/">enrollment data </a> from 2013, we can estimate 2,800 of the 6,000 PhD students to be clinically depressed.</p>
<p>This is a high number and not limited to the Berkeley campus. Other studies, too, have shown high rates of student depression. As a researcher working on suicide prevention programs, I have found this to be true for our own campus.</p>
<h2>Stressed students</h2>
<p>On a single day last fall, we randomly stopped students on our campus and administered a depression questionnaire. Of the approximately 250 students we contacted on this one particular day, no fewer than eight were having active suicidal thoughts. </p>
<p>While the students with suicidal thoughts received emergency counseling, another 12 scheduled appointments voluntarily after seeing their scores. Ten more students presented themselves over the next few days, saying that the questionnaire helped them realize they needed counseling. </p>
<p>This meant that 30 students, or 12% of the students we stopped, were experiencing depression serious enough to need intervention. </p>
<p>Relative to the total campus enrollment, these are small numbers, but in terms of the number of students we contacted, <a href="http://www.sprc.org/collegesanduniversities/scope-problem">they are higher than previously reported percentages</a> and quite probably more in line with reality. </p>
<p>Suicide is the <a href="http://www.suicide.org/college-student-suicide.html">second leading cause of death</a> for college students after <a href="https://www2.nami.org/Content/NavigationMenu/Find_Support/NAMI_on_Campus1/Mental_Illness_Fact_Sheets/Suicide.pdf">traffic accidents</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80737/original/image-20150506-10937-fgpbif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80737/original/image-20150506-10937-fgpbif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80737/original/image-20150506-10937-fgpbif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80737/original/image-20150506-10937-fgpbif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80737/original/image-20150506-10937-fgpbif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80737/original/image-20150506-10937-fgpbif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80737/original/image-20150506-10937-fgpbif.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Students have a great deal of anxiety over job prospects after college.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&search_tracking_id=PXYBTGr-noxxRYHvoh47xg&searchterm=depression&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=94267417">Pencil image via www.shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We do not have adequate data that separates the suicide rate of graduate students from that of under-graduates. But studies among graduate students show that a substantial percentage suffer from depression, anxiety and have suicidal thoughts. </p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24711096">one such study</a> where an email questionnaire was sent out to 301 graduate students nationally, 22% were found to be on medication for depression or anxiety and nearly 19% were in counseling. </p>
<p>At the University of Michigan, researchers <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2007-19519-005">found</a> nearly 2% of graduate students were having suicidal thoughts in the four weeks preceding a survey they conducted in 2007. </p>
<p>Other studies, too, have reported that <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2009-08599-001">4% of graduate students </a> and <a href="http://annals.org/article.aspx?articleid=742530">11% of medical students</a> having serious suicidal thoughts in the year prior to the studies. </p>
<h2>Anxiety over life after college</h2>
<p>The most common risk factors, as reported by researchers at the University of Michigan, for depression in graduate students include financial concerns, post-graduate job prospects, isolation and lack of social support. </p>
<p>We don’t know what makes the arts and humanities graduate students more vulnerable to depression and suicide. Since there are no other studies that point to these fields of study as having greater risk, it may be that this is simply coincidental or specific to the Berkeley campus, or their fears about post-graduate employment are realistic. </p>
<p>This is not to say that undergraduate students are not at risk. Data from the <a href="http://www.sprc.org/">Suicide Prevention Resource Center</a>, a federally-supported program, shows about 8% of college students (undergraduate and graduate) as <a href="http://www.sprc.org/collegesanduniversities/scope-problem">having</a> suicidal thoughts, about 2% making a suicide plan and about 1% making an attempt. </p>
<p>As not all universities respond to surveys about student suicide and in many cases suicidal thoughts or attempts go unreported, actual numbers are likely to be higher. </p>
<p>A university can be a stressful place. Students might feel <a href="http://www.sprc.org/sites/sprc.org/files/library/SuicideAmongCollegeStudentsInUS.pdf">overwhelmed</a>, hopeless, isolated and not able to cope at college. Under such circumstances, they may perceive suicide to be the only way out.</p>
<h2>Depression on campus</h2>
<p>So, what can colleges and students do?</p>
<p>University administrators and counselors should focus on <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24711096">developing mental health and wellness interventions</a>. College students in general and graduate students in particular need to be encouraged to seek help. </p>
<p>Additionally, students need to know there are a number of online resources available. </p>
<p>These resources include the <a href="http://www.sprc.org/">Suicide Prevention Resource Center</a>, the <a href="http://www.jedfoundation.org">Jed Foundation</a>, <a href="http://www.thetrevorproject.org">The Trevor Project</a>, <a href="http://www.nimh.nih.gov/index.shtml">The National Institute of Mental Health</a> and <a href="http://www.samhsa.gov">The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration</a>. Information can also be found on the <a href="http://www.apa.org">American Psychological Association</a> and the <a href="http://www.psychiatry.org">American Psychiatric Association</a> websites. </p>
<p>It is important to break the silence and to bring to public attention the problem of student depression, anxiety and suicide. The larger issue of lack of resources on some campuses needs to be addressed urgently.</p>
<p>Otherwise, the numbers will continue to rise.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41324/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeannie D DiClementi receives funding from a Garrett Lee Smith suicide prevention grant from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) that is referenced in the article.</span></em></p>
Suicidal thoughts among college students are more common than we think. Graduate students, especially those in the humanities, are at a greater risk.
Jeannie D. DiClementi, Associate Professor of Psychology, Indiana University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/33694
2014-11-03T05:59:20Z
2014-11-03T05:59:20Z
London’s congestion charge increases speed and saves lives
<p>London has long been one of the world’s most congested cities. Before a £5 “congestion charge” was introduced for vehicles entering the city centre, cars would spend a third of their time in peak hours at a complete standstill. The charge, introduced in 2003, was hailed as a <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.20.4.157">triumph of economics</a> as it forced those who contributed to congestion to pay a price that reflected its cost. As economics would suggest, traffic decreased and journeys became quicker.</p>
<p>Traffic accidents and related injuries and fatalities weren’t the main target of the congestion charge, but they may have been influenced by it. On the one hand, reduced congestion means fewer cars are in central London with an expectation of fewer accidents. On the other hand, less traffic means higher travel speeds, which generally leads to more accidents – particularly in a dense area such as central London where cars, cyclists and pedestrians share the road. </p>
<p>My research with <a href="http://www4.uwm.edu/letsci/economics/faculty/heywood.cfm">John Heywood</a> of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and <a href="http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/lums/people/all/maria-navarro-paniagua/">Maria Navarro</a> of Lancaster University is the first <a href="http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/71071/1/LondonCongestionCharge.pdf">major study</a> of the congestion charge’s effect on traffic accidents and their severity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63389/original/xb9f5v36-1414754950.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63389/original/xb9f5v36-1414754950.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63389/original/xb9f5v36-1414754950.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63389/original/xb9f5v36-1414754950.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63389/original/xb9f5v36-1414754950.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63389/original/xb9f5v36-1414754950.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63389/original/xb9f5v36-1414754950.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63389/original/xb9f5v36-1414754950.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The congestion charge zone covers central London.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:London_congestion_charge_zone.jpg">openstreetmap</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One issue is that we simply don’t know what would have happened to accidents in the congestion zone had there not been a charge. Comparing the number of accidents before and after charge is not enough, as we might simply be observing something that would have happened anyway. It is well known that the number of traffic accidents has been <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/358035/rrcgb2013-00.pdf">steadily declining</a> across the UK in the past decade. </p>
<p>This means we need to define appropriate comparison or control groups. In this case, we used the most populous 20 cities in Britain, not including London. We contrasted the change in accidents in the congestion charge zone to that change over the same period in these other cities. We use the fact that the downward trend in accidents happens in both London and the comparison group to more accurately identify the influence of the charge. </p>
<p>The congestion charge reduced traffic accidents in central London by 30 a month – an enormous 40% reduction. Accidents that result in individuals being killed or seriously injured also fell, by just under four a month, or 45 a year. This means around 500 people have avoided serious injury or death thanks to the congestion charge.</p>
<p><strong>Congestion charge means fewer accidents in London:</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63405/original/vt7j9sd8-1414758196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63405/original/vt7j9sd8-1414758196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63405/original/vt7j9sd8-1414758196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63405/original/vt7j9sd8-1414758196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63405/original/vt7j9sd8-1414758196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63405/original/vt7j9sd8-1414758196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63405/original/vt7j9sd8-1414758196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63405/original/vt7j9sd8-1414758196.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Accidents in central London (red line) vs 20 other cities (blue line)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/71071/1/LondonCongestionCharge.pdf">Green et al</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We next explored any negative “spill-over” from the policy. Did the congestion zone just move traffic to other parts of London, other times of the day, or to non-charged vehicles? If the answer is yes, reduced accidents may be offset by more car crashes and fatalities elsewhere and at other times. </p>
<p>This isn’t the case, however. We examined areas surrounding the congestion charge zone – both a 2km and a 5km radius – and we found that, not only did accidents not increase in these areas, there was actually a large positive spill-over. The charge decreased accidents dramatically in the surrounding areas – about 20 fewer total accidents a month, with 3.5 fewer serious or fatal accidents. Our estimates also show that accidents and injuries were reduced in non-charged times (before 7 am and after 6 pm) and for exempt vehicles (largely bicycles, motorcycles, taxis and buses).</p>
<p>The charge meant more people rode bikes into central London – that was the idea. Our research confirmed that one unanticipated effect of the congestion charge was a small initial increase in accidents involving cyclists, roughly 1.5 a month up to 2005. Yet, by the end of 2006 we found this had reversed and that the rise didn’t carry on. It seems likely to us that an initial response to the congestion charge was that more inexperienced cyclists took to the roads. In time, they either gave up or became more worldly.</p>
<p>Is the congestion charge set at the right level? Since the initial £5 charge in 2003, it has been raised twice, £8 in 2005 and £10 in 2011. These changes and inflation allow us to see what effect a £1 real charge has on accidents. Our results show that each pound increase in levy reduces accidents by 5 per month. While we can’t say what is the “right” charge, our work suggests it’s not just the fact that the charge exists that matters. It may not be great news for commuters, but a more expensive charge might well reduce traffic accidents further still.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33694/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
London has long been one of the world’s most congested cities. Before a £5 “congestion charge” was introduced for vehicles entering the city centre, cars would spend a third of their time in peak hours…
Colin Green, Professor of Economics, Lancaster University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/25372
2014-04-23T20:05:19Z
2014-04-23T20:05:19Z
A new approach to cut death toll of young people in road accidents
<p>Too often in Australia we hear tragic stories of another young life cut short in a car accident and yet any attempts to dramatically reduce the death toll are not working.</p>
<p>Young male drivers are our hardest hit, with male drivers aged 17 to 24 making up just 12.7% of all <a href="http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/safety/transport-and-road-statistics/licensing-statistics.aspx">licence holders in Queensland</a> but accounting for 20.3% of <a href="http://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/Safety/Transport-and-road-statistics/Road-safety-statistics.aspx">driver fatalities</a>.</p>
<p>Across Australia around 45% of all deaths of young people can be <a href="http://www.youngdriverfactbase.com/key-statistics/">atrributed to a road accident</a> with a 17-year-old P-plate driver four times more likely be involved in a fatal road accident than a 26 year old driver. </p>
<p>There has been <a href="http://www.aihw.gov.au/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=6442452801">some reduction</a> in the the number of fatal accidents involving young people over the years, but the focus is mostly placed on young drivers with calls for <a href="http://www.carsguide.com.au/news-and-reviews/car-news/do_young_drivers_lack_skills_poll">more driver training and education</a>. Clearly this is not enough. We need to do something else to reduce the death – and injury – toll.</p>
<p>The Australian experience is not unique. This global reality has prompted me to look at young driver road safety in a different way. Rather than attempting to fix only the drivers, we need to know more about their behaviours and their environment before we can intervene effectively.</p>
<h2>What are the risks?</h2>
<p>Recent research shows young drivers are placing themselves at greater risk of harm by: </p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://eprints.qut.edu.au/45962/">what they drive</a> – young drivers who share Mum and Dad’s car are less risky on the road</li>
<li><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457514000682">when they drive</a> – driving in circumstances that are risky for all drivers, but especially new drivers (such as at night or when they are tired)</li>
<li><a href="http://eprints.qut.edu.au/49031/">how they drive</a> – that they, like drivers of all ages, may choose to speed, they may not wear their seat belts if it is just for a short trip and they are likely to still make driving errors even after they passed their driving test</li>
<li><a href="http://eprints.qut.edu.au/41719/">why they drive</a> – changing the way they drive depending on how they feel emotionally. </li>
</ul>
<p>We often forget that young drivers are also mostly teenagers, and that being a teen can be tricky. Sensation seeking and impulsivity are normal parts of figuring out who we are. We know teens are likely to struggle with <a href="http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/surviving-your-childs-adolescence/201007/adolescence-and-emotion">depression and anxiety</a> so it makes sense these emotions will influence how they drive. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46900/original/7w378y7s-1398232187.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46900/original/7w378y7s-1398232187.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46900/original/7w378y7s-1398232187.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46900/original/7w378y7s-1398232187.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46900/original/7w378y7s-1398232187.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46900/original/7w378y7s-1398232187.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46900/original/7w378y7s-1398232187.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A roadside tribute to a 17-year-old school student killed when his station wagon crashed in Adelaide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mikecogh/5276644763/in/photostream/">Flickr/Michael Coghlan</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have also learnt that young drivers are influenced by the behaviours and attitudes of others, including <a href="http://eprints.qut.edu.au/50741/">parents, peers and police</a>. What may not be well known is that these important groups start to influence young driver behaviour long before the teen gets behind the wheel of a car, and their influence lasts long through independent driving. </p>
<p>So we have this essential <em>foreground</em> information - what we can easily see - about behaviour, environment and the young driver. But what about the <em>background</em> information, what we may not even suspect is there? </p>
<h2>A different approach to safety</h2>
<p>Let’s think big! Let’s improve young driver road safety by targeting the “<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457514000402">young driver road safety system</a>”. A young driver’s approach to road safety is a result of a dynamic and interactive system which emerges from actions and interactions between social, organisational and technical factors. It is not simply a product of the driver and their immediate environment.</p>
<p>First we need to know a little about this system. Who is in it, what role do they play? When we know this, we can figure out where and how the system itself is not working, with young drivers (and their family, their friends, and the wider community) paying the price for system failures.</p>
<p>We can understand the system across six levels of influence, from 1 at the top down to 6:</p>
<ol>
<li>the government (where policies are made)</li>
<li>regulatory bodies (who inform policies)</li>
<li>local government (including parents)</li>
<li>other important organisations (such as schools, driving instructors, and vehicle manufacturers)</li>
<li>the young drivers themselves, and others with whom they share the vehicle/road</li>
<li>the road and their vehicle.</li>
</ol>
<p>As we can see from the examples at each level there are actors – who can be individuals, groups, departments or other stakeholders – who are important in young driver road safety. They fit somewhere within the system according to the role they play in this larger system. </p>
<p>For the system to protect young drivers, and everyone with whom they share their car and the road, we need actions and decisions to flow from the top levels down through to the lower levels.</p>
<p>This communication isn’t one way, though, with actions and decisions from the lower levels needed to flow through the higher levels. This process is called vertical integration.</p>
<p>There is also horizontal integration, that is actions and decisions among the various actors at each level is essential. </p>
<h2>So who is responsible for road safety?</h2>
<p>Systems thinking is a radical approach in young driver road safety. Rather than laying the blame for most crashes on the young driver, crashes can be understood as a failure in the system which should actually protect young drivers. </p>
<p>For example, a crash leading to a young person’s death can be related to factors at every level of the system, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>driving an older vehicle (which has fewer crash-avoidance and crash-protection features) on poorly maintained roads</li>
<li>driving after drinking alcohol when the designated driver decided to drink even more (and then encourages the young driver to go even faster)</li>
<li>driving at night (which is more risky for everyone)</li>
<li>driving when parents are unaware of how they behave on the road now they have their own car and are licensed to drive independently</li>
<li>was there no public transport available.</li>
</ul>
<p>Taking into account such factors, coupled with youthful exuberance and a complex web of physical, psychological and social development, perhaps we should be asking why young drivers do not crash more often?</p>
<p>Mapping the system shows how responsibility for young driver road safety is actually shared among many different actors, that it is not the sole responsibility of the young driver. </p>
<p>A systems analysis of young driver road safety in Queensland has already found that there is limited vertical, and some horizontal, integration. There is a general need for more information about who is out there, what they do, and how actors can work together – a research project currently underway here in Queensland. </p>
<p>This is good news, signalling a new age in which we can radically improve young driver road safety.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25372/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bridie Scott-Parker received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council for part of this research. </span></em></p>
Too often in Australia we hear tragic stories of another young life cut short in a car accident and yet any attempts to dramatically reduce the death toll are not working. Young male drivers are our hardest…
Bridie Scott-Parker, Research Fellow, University of the Sunshine Coast
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.