tag:theconversation.com,2011:/id/topics/transport-planning-33286/articlesTransport planning – The Conversation2023-11-02T00:51:24Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2144762023-11-02T00:51:24Z2023-11-02T00:51:24ZOur children are victims of road violence. We need to talk about the deadly norms of car use<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556030/original/file-20231026-21-v3jamv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=298%2C0%2C3236%2C2160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/female-kid-running-front-driving-car-1537350902">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The deaths and injuries caused by car drivers are an everyday occurrence. This road violence has become normalised. We take it for granted as the price we have to pay to use our cars. </p>
<p>Globally, car crashes are the world’s <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries">leading cause of death</a> for people aged five to 25. In Australia, road deaths included <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety/fatal_road_crash_database">293 people in this age group</a> in 2022, a rise from 281 in 2019 and 276 in 2018. </p>
<p>These deaths are stark reminders of the structural problem with a deeply entrenched, car-dominated culture. The huge numbers of deaths and injuries on our roads are a result of choosing to build our society around cars. This degree of harm does not seem to draw the same level of outrage as any other form of violence would. </p>
<p>As we argue in a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14733285.2023.2270444">newly published paper</a>, these tragedies will continue unless we recognise the consequences of our ongoing misguided choices. We must act with the urgency this situation deserves.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1594526019960160257"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/despite-lockdowns-1-142-australians-including-66-kids-died-on-our-roads-in-the-past-year-heres-what-we-need-to-do-170021">Despite lockdowns, 1,142 Australians, including 66 kids, died on our roads in the past year. Here's what we need to do</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Lives lost and lives blighted</h2>
<p>These figures represent real people and real lives. </p>
<p>In March 2023, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-22/teenagers-hit-by-truck-on-kensington-road-at-marryatville/102128556">a truck hit two 16-year-olds</a> who were crossing at pedestrian lights in front of their inner-city Adelaide school. Both were rushed to hospital with serious injuries.</p>
<p>Three months later, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-22/sa-woman-in-serious-condition-after-being-hit-by-car-in-adelaide/102512202">a four-wheel-drive hit a 38-year-old woman and her six-year-old daughter</a> who were crossing the street next to their school in the Adelaide CBD. The woman was pinned under the car. The six-year-old was also dragged under the car and pulled out by another parent.</p>
<p>In September 2023, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/boy-8-critically-injured-after-car-hits-children-playing-in-melbourne-s-west-20230825-p5dzha.html">a car hit an eight-year-old boy</a> who was playing soccer with his three-year-old brother in a suburban Melbourne laneway. He was trapped between two vehicles for about 20 minutes. He had life-threatening injuries.</p>
<h2>Not some isolated accidents</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262516129/fighting-traffic/">underlying causes</a> of car crashes and their link to planning and transport policies continue to be ignored. </p>
<p>These policies have promoted <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-still-fighting-city-freeways-after-half-a-century-127722">car-based infrastructure</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-sprawl-is-not-a-dirty-word-if-the-priority-is-to-meet-all-kids-needs-it-should-be-208670">urban sprawl</a>. Public transport and active transport such as walking and cycling have <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">been neglected</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-sprawl-is-not-a-dirty-word-if-the-priority-is-to-meet-all-kids-needs-it-should-be-208670">Urban sprawl is 'not a dirty word'? If the priority is to meet all kids' needs, it should be</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Children are the victims of our obsession with allowing heavy, fast-moving vehicles in our everyday spaces, including around schools. </p>
<p>The freedom of car drivers comes at the expense of the freedom of all others. At the same time, the environment and society bear most of the costs of this car culture. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1555615444689731589"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/japans-old-enough-and-australias-bluey-remind-us-our-kids-are-no-longer-free-range-but-we-can-remake-our-neighbourhoods-187698">Japan's Old Enough and Australia's Bluey remind us our kids are no longer ‘free range’ – but we can remake our neighbourhoods</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A form of victim-blaming</h2>
<p>In the Adelaide inner-city crash in March, responses included pruning a tree, so it didn’t obscure a traffic light, and <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/new-safety-measures-will-be-installed-at-pedestrian-crossing-outside-marryatville-high-school/news-story/2bd9d8cb0527b43c7892fe721910d5bb">auditing pedestrian crossings</a>. Red-and-white-striped wrapping was added to the traffic light poles, along with signs telling pedestrians to “stop, look and listen” before stepping on a street. </p>
<p>These inconsequential modifications mostly target the potential victims, which highlights our <a href="https://darajapress.com/publication/dark-pr-how-corporate-disinformation-harms-our-health-and-the-environment">state of denial</a> of the role of cars. It reinforces the privileged position of cars and their drivers –children are the ones who need to be disciplined and reminded to be more alert and careful around cars. </p>
<p>It’s essentially a form of <a href="https://darajapress.com/publication/dark-pr-how-corporate-disinformation-harms-our-health-and-the-environment">victim blaming</a>. Instead of reducing the source of violence, we tell everybody to be more careful around it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Child on road flings out arms as car approaches – as seen through the windscreen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556039/original/file-20231026-23-vcv9le.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556039/original/file-20231026-23-vcv9le.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556039/original/file-20231026-23-vcv9le.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556039/original/file-20231026-23-vcv9le.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556039/original/file-20231026-23-vcv9le.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556039/original/file-20231026-23-vcv9le.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556039/original/file-20231026-23-vcv9le.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In focusing our response to road trauma on telling children to be more careful, we are essentially victim-blaming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/on-windshield-view-motion-image-children-444608659">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Normalisation of crashes must stop</h2>
<p>Neglecting the root causes of these crashes stops us taking more effective action.</p>
<p>We could, for instance, reduce the space allocated to cars by creating car-free or no-parking zones. We could reduce the speed limits for cars to be closer to the average speeds of walking (6 kilometres per hour — the accepted speed in most holiday parks) or cycling (15-20km/h). And we could create disincentives such as higher <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/a-new-way-to-curb-the-rise-of-oversized-pickups-and-suvs">registration</a> and <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/suv-drivers-in-paris-higher-parking-fees/">parking fees</a> to discourage the use of increasingly large vehicles, which multiply the collision risks for those outside them.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1396376986302484481"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/busted-5-myths-about-30km-h-speed-limits-in-australia-160547">Busted: 5 myths about 30km/h speed limits in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Car crashes are also normalised through the <a href="https://scribepublications.com.au/books-authors/books/movement-9781922310798">way in which they are brought to public attention</a>. We stop hearing about these crashes a few days after they occur, and we rarely hear about their <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198220300208">long-term and far-reaching effects</a>. </p>
<p>In the crash involving a woman and her six-year-old, the girl was reported to be lucky to avoid severe injuries. Similarly, it was reported the younger brother of the boy trapped between two cars escaped serious injury. </p>
<p>These reports do not capture the trauma of a six-year-old who heard her mother’s screams while both were forced under a moving two-tonne metal object. They overlook the impact on a three-year-old who sees his brother’s body being crushed between two cars. </p>
<p>These reports also rarely capture the trauma other family members and friends endure, probably for the rest of their lives. And don’t forget the severe impacts on the lives of the driver, first responders and bystanders. </p>
<p>The rippling impacts of these crashes remain largely hidden from the public. As does their systemic nature.</p>
<h2>To end this violence we must rethink our priorities</h2>
<p>We should refuse to accept that vehicles hitting children are “<a href="https://www.roadpeace.org/get-involved/crash-not-accident/">accidents</a>” or unavoidable outcomes of our essential lifestyles. </p>
<p>We can choose to reclaim the status we give to cars in our everyday spaces. The price we pay, both social and environmental, is too high to sustain. We have plenty of better and safer travel choices, such as active and public transport.</p>
<p>We need to recognise that the car threatens children’s safety and their right to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17450101.2023.2200146">independently roam public spaces</a>. This directly threatens their <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780128146941/transport-and-childrens-wellbeing">long-term health and wellbeing</a>. </p>
<p>Car drivers’ rights are not more important than children’s rights to be safe on our streets. The interests of those who oppose measures such as reduced car parking or lower speed limits should not be more important than our children’s wellbeing. No benefit of a pro-car policy can be greater than the benefit of children’s active presence in public spaces, where they have a right to be imperfect and distracted. </p>
<p>As a society, a public conversation about reassessing our priorities is well overdue. Only then can we challenge the unquestioned status of the car and our tendency to take the violence that it generates for granted.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214476/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco te Brömmelstroet received funding from the Dutch organisation for academic research NWO and the European ERC. He is affiliated with the Urban Cycling Institute and works for the Lab of Thought. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hulya Gilbert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We accept the daily toll of road deaths and injuries as the price we pay to be able to drive everywhere, but it doesn’t have to be this way.Hulya Gilbert, Lecturer in Planning and Human Geography, La Trobe UniversityMarco te Brömmelstroet, Professor in Urban Mobility Futures, University of AmsterdamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2124642023-09-11T02:26:13Z2023-09-11T02:26:13ZFive years on, Brisbane’s e-scooters and e-bikes are winning over tourists and residents as they open up the city<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547148/original/file-20230908-15-9hz65x.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C352%2C4538%2C2998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors, courtesy of Brisbane City Council</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Five years after being the <a href="https://theconversation.com/limes-not-lemons-lessons-from-australias-first-e-scooter-sharing-trial-108924">first Australian city</a> to introduce rideshare e-scooters, Brisbane is leading the way after many <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-e-bikes-can-succeed-where-earlier-bike-share-schemes-failed-151844">growing pains</a> and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/limes-not-lemons-lessons-from-australias-first-e-scooter-sharing-trial-108924">lot of learning</a>.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://business.uq.edu.au/article/2023/08/e-scooters-pave-way-memorable-brisbane-tourism-experience">latest research</a> explored tourists’ and residents’ perceptions and experiences of the city. We surveyed both users and non-users of e-scooters and e-bikes in a first-of-its-kind <a href="https://business.uq.edu.au/files/104406/micromobility-in-brisbane-report.pdf">study</a>. We received nearly 1,000 responses, with 29 follow-up interviews. </p>
<p>Cities around the world are making micromobility, such as e-scooters and e-bikes, part of their transport plans. They hope to reap the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920921000389">widely proven benefits</a> of encouraging active transport such as walking and cycling, reducing car trips and traffic congestion, cutting greenhouse gas emissions, improving access throughout cities and promoting residents’ overall wellbeing. </p>
<p>Still, micromobility is very much up for public debate. With more and <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-1-in-3-users-are-tourists-that-changes-the-bike-share-equation-for-cities-152895">more tourists</a> using rideshare bikes and scooters and some cities <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66682673">banning them</a>, important questions have been overlooked. How do these devices shape visitor experiences and a city’s image? How do residents view their use? And, what do non-users think? </p>
<p>Well, we found out. In Brisbane, these new forms of transport are being seen in an increasingly positive light as alternatives to private cars, public transport and ridershare services. Comparable to when <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/15/australian-e-scooters-bumpy-ride-like-when-automobiles-appeared-on-streets-filled-with-horses">cars replaced horses</a>, micromobility options offer a convenient and improved transport experience that showcases the best parts of the city.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1661643365409234944"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/limes-not-lemons-lessons-from-australias-first-e-scooter-sharing-trial-108924">Limes not lemons: lessons from Australia’s first e-scooter sharing trial</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Micromobility services are good for a city’s image</h2>
<p>When tourists arrive in a new city, they face a common challenge: where to go, what to see and, more importantly, how to get there?</p>
<p>Public transport is considered too stressful, confusing and at times unpleasant. Rideshare cars and taxis are easy and familiar, but they don’t provide an experience and miss out on the nooks and crannies of a destination. </p>
<p>A clear majority of the visitors in our study (83% users, 42% non-users) agreed e-scooters and e-bikes enhanced their tourism experience and their view of the city. This was because these forms of transport greatly increased the places they were able to see and experience. As a result, they regarded Brisbane as an active, modern city. </p>
<p>For many, riding e-escooters was itself one of the best aspects of visiting the city. One tourist told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Having an opportunity to use e-scooters while we visit Brisbane allows us to take in the beautiful environment that we would normally miss in a taxi or Uber.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="person rides an e-scooter through botanic gardens" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547115/original/file-20230908-19-io327w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547115/original/file-20230908-19-io327w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547115/original/file-20230908-19-io327w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547115/original/file-20230908-19-io327w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547115/original/file-20230908-19-io327w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547115/original/file-20230908-19-io327w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547115/original/file-20230908-19-io327w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An e-scooter or e-bike easily gets you to places you might miss if using a taxi or Uber.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/e-scooters-are-becoming-wildly-popular-but-we-have-to-factor-in-the-weather-190917">E-scooters are becoming wildly popular – but we have to factor in the weather</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Another tourist said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I really enjoyed using it [an e-scooter]. It was a highlight of our trip actually.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Common reasons for such positive views included: accessibility, convenience, sustainability, independence, novelty, spontaneity, maintaining a healthy lifestyle, being outside, sense of community and ease of use.</p>
<p>Similarly, non-user visitors largely view e-scooters as a benefit to the city. They see them as good for its image and/or are indifferent but see the appeal for others. </p>
<p>One tourist, a non-user of e-scooters, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’d say right now, I don’t think it’s giving a bad image at all. On the contrary, I feel it gives an image of providing alternatives to cars.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Brisbane’s robust cycling infrastructure, referred to as “scooter highway” by study participants, was a factor in these positive views for all groups. </p>
<p>Another non-user tourist said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I feel like most people are generally responsible about riding them, and not in the middle of the sidewalk. I would say they’re a good resource for sure.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="e-scooters lined up at the edge of a city street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547116/original/file-20230908-27-c5ry5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547116/original/file-20230908-27-c5ry5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547116/original/file-20230908-27-c5ry5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547116/original/file-20230908-27-c5ry5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547116/original/file-20230908-27-c5ry5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547116/original/file-20230908-27-c5ry5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547116/original/file-20230908-27-c5ry5k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brisbane’s rideshare operators appear to be overcoming concerns about their e-scooters and bikes blocking footpaths.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-1-in-3-users-are-tourists-that-changes-the-bike-share-equation-for-cities-152895">When 1 in 3 users are tourists, that changes the bike-share equation for cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How do tourist and resident riders’ views differ?</h2>
<p>We asked both tourists and residents for their views. All groups largely viewed e-scooters and e-bikes as alternatives to public transport rather than a supplement. Only a minority used e-scooters in combination with public transport. </p>
<p>Visitors to Brisbane who were not familiar with the public transport system found micromobility options incredibly useful. They were able to explore more attractions more quickly using e-scooters and e-bikes, without the hassle of buying travel cards and working out public transport timetables.</p>
<p>For visitors, micromobility itself is a tourism experience comparable to traditional attractions such as shopping and landmarks. For residents, it’s a convenient, independent, reliable and efficient way to commute, run errands, or go out and meet friends for dinner.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1429788242136559621"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wallets-on-wheels-city-visitors-who-use-e-scooters-more-spend-more-161886">Wallets on wheels: city visitors who use e-scooters more spend more</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What about non-users?</h2>
<p>We found differences between users and non-users. Users have overwhelmingly positive views (74%) of the benefits for themselves and others. Non-users either see the benefits to others, or are sceptical and worried about safety. </p>
<p>However, most non-users (65%) still viewed shared e-scooters and e-bikes as a public resource. Only a minority (35%) saw them as a nuisance. </p>
<p>So, what’s stopping more people using them? Commonly cited barriers included:</p>
<ul>
<li>safety concerns</li>
<li>not knowing how to ride</li>
<li>expensive</li>
<li>self-image – not seeing themselves as e-scooter/e-bike riders</li>
<li>lack of cycling-friendly infrastructure in some areas</li>
<li>post-COVID hygiene concerns</li>
</ul>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1686941245002657792"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/thinking-of-swerving-high-fuel-prices-with-an-e-scooter-or-e-bike-5-crucial-questions-answered-179563">Thinking of swerving high fuel prices with an e-scooter or e-bike? 5 crucial questions answered</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Micromobility is gaining ground</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://business.uq.edu.au/files/104406/micromobility-in-brisbane-report.pdf">results of our study</a> are clear: micromobility is a win for urban transport and tourism. Visitors and residents who are able and willing to use e-scooters and e-bikes are rewarded with a better way to get around and experience all the city has to offer. Users have strongly positive views of these transport modes and the general city impact. </p>
<p>Efforts to improve safety and access, by lowering personal barriers, would likely improve perceptions of micromobility and of the city. Further innovations in e-scooter design, supported by education campaigns, complementary infrastructure and policy, are likely to lead to greater uptake and more positive views.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212464/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Buning receives funding from Brisbane City Council. He is affiliated with Bicycle Queensland. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wendy Pham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Brisbane was the first Australian city to accept rideshare e-scooters. After some growing pains, residents, visitors and the city itself are enjoying the benefits, a new study finds.Richard Buning, Senior Lecturer in Tourism, School of Business, The University of QueenslandWendy Pham, Post-doctoral Researcher, Business School, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2089342023-07-04T02:49:50Z2023-07-04T02:49:50ZBy gutting the Greater Cities Commission, the NSW government is setting up itself and Sydney for failure<p>The Minns government’s <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/more-planning-resources-to-focus-on-delivery-of-new-houses-and-infrastructure">approach to planning Sydney</a> is troubling in terms of direction and substance. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minns-abolishes-sydney-planning-agency-to-bring-control-back-in-house-20230627-p5djuh.html">announcement</a> that it will “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/03/chris-minns-nsw-premier-100-days-in-office-housing-gambling-education?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">fold</a>” the <a href="https://greatercities.au/about-us">Greater Cities Commission</a> back into the Department of Planning raises several red flags for planning in New South Wales. Staff will also be transferred to the department from the <a href="https://www.wpca.sydney/about-us/about-the-western-parkland-city-authority/our-role-and-vision/">Western Parkland City Authority</a>, which was overseeing the building of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/bold-and-innovative-planning-is-delivering-australias-newest-city-but-it-will-be-hot-and-can-we-ditch-the-colonial-name-203932">“third CBD” called Bradfield</a> near Western Sydney Airport.</p>
<p>The Greater Sydney Commission (as it was originally known) was <a href="https://legislation.nsw.gov.au/#/view/act/2015/57/">created</a> to resolve a series of <a href="https://thefifthestate.com.au/columns/spinifex/40-year-planning-strategies-is-there-a-point/">tricky planning problems</a>. Sydney was growing and an institution to manage this growth city-wide was deemed desirable. </p>
<p>The approach to the city’s development had been <a href="https://academic.oup.com/heapro/article/35/4/649/5522167">top-down and siloed</a>. The Department of Planning made decisions in isolation from other departments and especially local councils. This approach was not delivering a healthy, liveable, growing city. </p>
<p>Understanding why planning works the way it does in NSW has been <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-13199-8">part of our research agenda for ten years</a>. What we have found, consistently, is a failure to invest real power and trust in those with the skills and mandate to make Sydney work.</p>
<p>The commission was not perfect, but it did make some progress towards breaking the silos between various authorities. Without a similar body that spans departments to deliver on the promise of more housing (or transport or hospitals or parks), the government is setting itself up to fail.</p>
<p>To demonstrate why, let’s unpack some of the challenges Sydney faces today.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1673553501996335104"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bold-and-innovative-planning-is-delivering-australias-newest-city-but-it-will-be-hot-and-can-we-ditch-the-colonial-name-203932">Bold and innovative planning is delivering Australia’s newest city. But it will be hot – and can we ditch the colonial name?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Housing</h2>
<p>Providing more <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-housing-and-homelessness-crisis-in-nsw-explained-in-9-charts-200523">affordable housing for Sydney</a> is more complex than <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-housing-supply-shouldnt-be-the-only-policy-tool-politicians-cling-to-72586">simply setting targets and building houses</a>. Blaming lack of progress on local councils is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/put-up-or-shut-up-labor-mayors-take-minns-to-task-over-housing-crisis-20230630-p5dkts.html">similarly simplistic</a>. </p>
<p>Removing proper assessment processes and rushing through residential rezonings is guaranteed to create poorly designed and built housing. Speed will not increase affordability. It will, however, result in housing that is isolated, car-dependent, poorly insulated and under-serviced. </p>
<p>It is time the state government <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-market-has-failed-to-give-australians-affordable-housing-so-dont-expect-it-to-solve-the-crisis-192177">questioned its creed that “the market”</a> will solve our housing crises. It needs to pay due attention to the inherent complexities of housing a growing population of more than 5 million people.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-market-has-failed-to-give-australians-affordable-housing-so-dont-expect-it-to-solve-the-crisis-192177">The market has failed to give Australians affordable housing, so don't expect it to solve the crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The City of Sydney is not Sydney!</h2>
<p>The one upside of the pandemic for cities is that people began to look at the neighbourhoods around them. Suburbs started to be seen as places to be, rather than viewed from the window of the family car. </p>
<p>This shift could finally lead to the entrenched, monocentric view of Sydney being challenged. Questioning of the supremacy of the CBD creates an opportunity for this city’s middle and outer suburbs to <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/speech-growing-our-outer-suburbs-fairly-monday-19-november-2018">thrive</a>. </p>
<p>Pushing this vision forward has always been an aspiration. The true realisation of decentralisation needs more than centralised decision-making.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1673205702179844096"}"></div></p>
<h2>Transport planning</h2>
<p>Sydney grew up with the assumption of a universal need for access to the private car, and it shows. </p>
<p>While other cities in our position have started to challenge the car’s supremacy, our governments have continued to build freeways. We have invested in public transport infrastructure that goes places, but nowhere anyone really needs to go. The A$26.6 billon Sydney West Metro, for example, connects Sydney’s two central business districts, but <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/business/news-and-events/news/2023/01/09/taken-for-a-ride--the-real-cost-of-sydney-s-metro-railways.html">bypasses</a> the residential hot spots just west of the Parramatta CBD.</p>
<p>Transport planning consistently fails to respond to the needs of the community it’s meant to serve. It is based on outdated notions such as the value of travel time, ignoring the fact people travel the way they do for multiple reasons. Comfort, convenience and habit will <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-get-people-out-of-cars-we-need-to-know-why-they-drive-27279">often come before</a> a rational evaluation of whether it’s better to take the bus or the family car. </p>
<p>Furthermore, cost-benefit analyses fail to factor in the true costs and benefits of a sustainable transport system. The business case for investment in a bike network, for example, should includes savings to the health system from increased <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140519305110?casa_token=--p9efSvidkAAAAA:-9xAC5ox76-NYQWIw3gvPEFuh1wRciEUwJt1X29a5j24ihAds_6GCuyElbHfU7-aeho62HHq7w">physical activity</a>. And more investment in roads adds to health costs resulting from diseases related to physical inactivity, such as <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10557-019-06926-5">heart disease</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-get-people-out-of-cars-we-need-to-know-why-they-drive-27279">To get people out of cars we need to know why they drive</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Climate change</h2>
<p>Underpinning our housing, transport and connectivity woes is the fact that our <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">planet is heating</a>. The way we live today in cities like Sydney is both contributing to the problem and preventing the adaptations that need to happen. </p>
<p>Since being elected, the Minns government has stayed silent <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-western-sydney-is-feeling-the-heat-from-climate-change-more-than-the-rest-of-the-city-201477">on the risks of climate change for Sydney</a>. Yet <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/how-transmission-woes-are-frustrating-the-building-of-renewable-energy-20230622-p5dimm">making the transition</a> to a more resilient city will require skill across layers of society, including active engagement with the community and business.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-western-sydney-is-feeling-the-heat-from-climate-change-more-than-the-rest-of-the-city-201477">Why Western Sydney is feeling the heat from climate change more than the rest of the city</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>So, what next?</h2>
<p>All of these problems will only be resolved when we delve deeply into complexity. We need to respond to the diversity of urban fabrics that together form the whole vast city. </p>
<p>Sydney matters – as a place to live, do business and visit. It needs to be cared for by a body with its interests as its mandate. The housing shortage, car dependency, entrenched monocentricity and the climate challenge demand more than top-down, simple solutions. Middle ground is needed, and that ground is rapidly being lost.</p>
<p>The solution is to take the politics and functions of city planning seriously. We need to better understand that the way our cities are planned and managed determines our ability to deal with the urgent problems we face. </p>
<p>Planning can help us adapt to hotter climates by ensuring we have well-insulated homes powered by renewable electricity and accessible green spaces nearby. Our <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Planning-Australias-Healthy-Built-Environments/Kent-Thompson/p/book/9780367670924">cities can keep us healthy</a> by providing clean environments and local opportunities for keeping physically active and making social connections. And, of course, we depend on our planning system to collaborate on solving the housing crisis. </p>
<p>But none of these things happen without investments – effective planning takes time, power and funding. And these resources are best allocated to city-wide institutions that know and care about Sydney as a whole.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208934/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Harris receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council and Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Kent receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>The centralisation of planning power is exactly what Sydney doesn’t need. While not perfect, the commission broke the mould of top-down, siloed planning and broadened the focus across the whole city.Patrick Harris, Senior Research Fellow, Acting Director, CHETRE, UNSW SydneyJennifer L. Kent, Senior Research Fellow in Urbanism, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2062872023-06-13T01:50:09Z2023-06-13T01:50:09ZCan the new High Speed Rail Authority deliver after 4 decades of costly studies?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530260/original/file-20230606-16-dq12tk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=616%2C0%2C3377%2C2245&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Tokaido Shinkansen in Japan.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Philip Laird</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s new <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/all-aboard-high-speed-rail-authority">High Speed Rail Authority</a> comes into being today. <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6904">Created</a> by the Albanese government, the authority and its <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/news/high-speed-rail-authority-board-members-announced">newly named board</a> have been set a challenging task: “<a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/all-aboard-high-speed-rail-authority">bring high-speed rail to reality</a>”. </p>
<p>Nearly four decades after it was first proposed, Australia must surely hold the world record for high-speed rail studies with no construction. I estimate the cost of all these studies to date to be about A$150 million (both public and private money, in 2023 dollars). Yet not one kilometre of a land corridor for a high-speed rail track has been reserved. </p>
<p>The challenge for the Albanese government is to go further than yet more studies and start construction. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-ever-its-time-to-upgrade-the-sydney-melbourne-railway-187169">More than ever, it’s time to upgrade the Sydney–Melbourne railway</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How many countries have high-speed rail?</h2>
<p>The International Union of Railways (UIC) <a href="https://uic.org/passenger/highspeed">defines</a> high-speed rail as including “infrastructure for new lines designed for speeds of 250km/h and above; upgraded existing lines for speeds of up to […] 220 km/h”. </p>
<p>Starting in 1964 with the Tokaido Shinkansen in Japan linking Tokyo to Shin-Osaka, high-speed rail now operates in <a href="https://uic.org/passenger/highspeed/article/high-speed-data-and-atlas">20 countries</a>. Another <a href="https://uic.org/IMG/pdf/uic-atlas-high-speed-2022.pdf">14 countries</a> are building or planning high-speed rail links. </p>
<p>In Indonesia, a high-speed rail service from the capital Jakarta to Bandung is due to begin this August. Construction of high-speed rail in India and Thailand is advanced.</p>
<p>And Australia? It only rates <a href="https://uic.org/IMG/pdf/uic-atlas-high-speed-2022.pdf">a mention</a> by the UIC of long-term planning for high-speed rail.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-abandon-plans-for-high-speed-rail-in-australia-just-look-at-all-the-benefits-139563">Don't abandon plans for high-speed rail in Australia – just look at all the benefits</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A history of projects that came to nothing</h2>
<p>In 1984, CSIRO proposed the Very Fast Train connecting Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne. A consortium undertook many studies. A Senate committee inquiry was held. However, the proposal failed to win government support and did not proceed.</p>
<p>Next was the pragmatic Speedrail proposal. This was to link Sydney to Canberra using existing track from Sydney to Macarthur and new track to Canberra. Prime Minister John Howard enthusiastically endorsed the project before the 1998 election, <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22media%2Fpressrel%2F2014HNC04170534%22;src1=sm1">saying</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The very fast train will rival airline flight as the preferred means of travel for countless millions of Australians for decades to come.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Howard government gave approval to the Speedrail consortium to “prove up” their proposal. The cost was to be <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/greens-to-push-40bn-fastrail-link-to-sydney-20100422-tfvj.html">about $4.5 billion</a>. About $1 billion would have been required from government, but this <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6599786/canberra-sydney-high-speed-rail-bid-was-always-too-expensive/">was denied</a>. It was a lost opportunity for Australia. </p>
<p>Instead, the Howard government funded yet <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/1317361">another study</a>, which effectively found high-speed rail to be too expensive. So also did a <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/33517">two-stage study</a> by the Gillard government, in which Anthony Albanese was the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2014/January/high-speed-rail">minister overseeing the planning process</a> until Labor lost office in 2013. It costed a high-speed rail network for the east coast at $114 billion (in 2012 dollars). </p>
<p>More parliamentary inquiries have since followed. And the <a href="https://www.nfra.gov.au/">National Faster Rail Agency</a> formed in 2019 has expended further funds. This agency now falls under the High Speed Rail Authority. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1664181944962412544"}"></div></p>
<h2>The NSW factor</h2>
<p>In 2018, the New South Wales government began its own <a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-on-a-slow-track-to-fast-trains-promised-regional-rail-upgrades-are-long-overdue-160932">investigations into faster rail</a>. Launched by the then premier, Gladys Berejiklian, the resulting report by UK rail expert Andrew McNaughton has not been released. It was <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/revealed-secret-high-speed-rail-plan-backs-newcastle-sydney-wollongong-link-20221222-p5c87g.html">reported</a> last year to have recommended new tracks between Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong, along with a Sydney-Canberra upgrade and better services to the state’s central west. </p>
<p>Other NSW reports also remain under wraps. In late 2022, the former NSW government stopped investigating high-speed rail or the upgrading of existing lines. These studies were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/03/nsw-government-slams-brakes-on-high-speed-rail-plans-after-spending-100m-on-studies">reported</a> to have cost about a further $100 million (my estimate of $150 million doesn’t include this figure, as it was for studies of both high-speed and faster rail). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-on-a-slow-track-to-fast-trains-promised-regional-rail-upgrades-are-long-overdue-160932">NSW on a slow track to fast trains: promised regional rail upgrades are long overdue</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>NSW now lags far behind Queensland, Victoria and Western Australia. All these states have trains moving at 160km/h over upgraded tracks. This includes the Queensland <a href="https://www.queenslandrailtravel.com.au/railexperiences/ourtrains/tilttrain">electric tilt train</a>, which has been running between Brisbane and Rockhampton since 1998. </p>
<p>There are also questions about the supply of new intercity trains for NSW. These and other questions are the subject of a <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/walsh-review-implementation">review</a> set up by the recently elected state Labor government. </p>
<h2>So, what happens next?</h2>
<p>There is some opposition to high-speed rail in Australia. In 2020, the Grattan Institute <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/fast-train-fever">said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The east-coast bullet train advocated by the federal ALP would be an expensive folly. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Last December, the shadow minister for infrastructure, Bridget McKenzie,
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/20/sydney-melbourne-rail-upgrades-could-be-transformative-coalition-says">said</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>While very fast trains has great appeal, the reality is that it is decades away from being built – even if governments were to get serious about it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>McKenzie favours upgrades of existing lines.</p>
<p>The minister for infrastructure and transport, Catherine King, <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/all-aboard-high-speed-rail-authority">said</a> last week the first priority of the High Speed Rail Authority is planning and corridor works for the Sydney-to-Newcastle section of the network. The government is providing $500 million for this. In addition, this project will require a much-improved, in-house, rail engineering capability. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-sydney-to-newcastle-fast-rail-makes-sense-making-trains-locally-does-not-174341">Vital Signs: Sydney to Newcastle fast rail makes sense. Making trains locally does not</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The project will also need to be delivered without the problems that the Inland Rail freight line project has encountered. The Albanese government <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/inland-rail-independent-review-announced">ordered</a> an independent <a href="https://www.inlandrail.gov.au/understanding-inland-rail/independent-review">review</a> of Inland Rail, which found serious shortcomings. It will now only <a href="https://www.inlandrail.gov.au/understanding-inland-rail/publications-and-reports/australian-government-response-independent-review-inland-rail">proceed this decade</a> on a rail link between Melbourne and Parkes. Questions remain over the section from Parkes to Brisbane. </p>
<p>The government is also <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/securing-australias-120-billion-nation-building-infrastructure-pipeline">reviewing other major infrastructure projects</a>. </p>
<p>One project that would produce many benefits is to build a new track between Macarthur and near Mittagong. This would be close to the reconstructed section of the Hume Motorway that opened in 1980. The benefits include faster, more energy-efficient train travel between Sydney and each of Melbourne and Canberra. It would also lower emissions. </p>
<p>A Macarthur-Mittagong deviation could be the start of a staged process to construct high-speed rail between Sydney and Melbourne. High-speed rail advocacy group <a href="https://www.fastrackaustralia.net">Fastrack</a> and others have proposed this approach. It would give regional Australia “<a href="https://www.facebook.com/WINNewsIllawarra/videos/illawarra-rail-fail-song/266906713961408/">more trains, and faster trains</a>, to get us on our way”.</p>
<p>A growing population is waiting for Australia to join the 34 countries that have or are about to get high-speed rail.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905">Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from the two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC. He is affiliated, inter alia, with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Railway Technical Society of Australasia and the Rail Futures Institute. The opinions expressed are those of the author.</span></em></p>Some 34 countries have high-speed rail or are about to get it. Yet since it was for proposed for Australia in 1984, no local plan for high-speed rail has got further than the drawing board.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1890712022-10-10T19:02:11Z2022-10-10T19:02:11ZCOVID skewed journey-to-work census data. Here’s how city planners can make the best of it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485505/original/file-20220920-23-6hjg0w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C4%2C3008%2C1981&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australian cities are slowly recovering from the COVID pandemic. Travel across cities is almost back to pre-pandemic levels. <a href="https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/">Google Mobility</a> show only a <a href="https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2022-10-02_AU_Victoria_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf">14% drop</a> in travel to work across Victoria and <a href="https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2022-10-02_AU_New_South_Wales_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf">12% drop</a> across New South Wales compared to pre-COVID results.</p>
<p>However, the disruption of COVID will reverberate through transport planning for years to come. The 2021 census – when people were asked about how they got to work – coincided with COVID lockdowns in our two biggest cities. The distortion of commuting patterns at that time creates problems for anyone who wishes to use these data. </p>
<p>Data on where people work, how they get to work and how far they travel represent a <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/about-census/australian-census#:%7E:text=It%20helps%20us%20understand%20what,of%20things%2C%20big%20and%20small.">powerful tool</a> for transport planners and policymakers. Transport has a critical influence on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-we-create-liveable-cities-first-we-must-work-out-the-key-ingredients-50898">liveability of cities</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214140520300748">health</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-50540-0_11">sustainability and quality of life</a>. </p>
<p>So what can we do about these COVID-skewed transport data? In this article we propose some ideas to ensure the census results remain useful for city planning.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1412734995144208387"}"></div></p>
<h2>Why do the census responses matter?</h2>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics runs the census and has collected transport method and workplace data <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/about-census/history-census">every five years since 1976</a>. In 2016, it improved these data to include <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0.55.001%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EFeature%20Article:%20Journey%20to%20Work%20in%20Australia%7E40">distance travelled to work and commuting method</a>. </p>
<p>In that year, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0.55.001%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EFeature%20Article:%20Journey%20to%20Work%20in%20Australia%7E40">9.2 million commuters</a> travelled an average distance of 16.5km to work. Of these people, 79% used a private vehicle, 14% took public transport and 5.2% cycled or walked. A further 500,000 people worked at home and 1 million employed persons did not go to work on census day.</p>
<p>The level of detail the census provides isn’t available with other methods. This is why the journey-to-work questions are so important. </p>
<h2>But many of us were in lockdown in 2021</h2>
<p>On census night, Australia’s two biggest cities, Melbourne and Sydney, <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/covid-19/resources/ecec-covid19-timeline">were in lockdown</a>, as were large regional cities across Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland (and the lockdown in Brisbane had <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-08/queensland-coronavirus-cases-lockdown-update/100359358">ended only two days before</a>). People <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/guide-census-data/census-dictionary/2021/variables-topic/transport/method-travel-work-mtwp">were asked</a>: “How did the person get to work on Tuesday 10 August 2021?” </p>
<p>Planners and researchers are expecting some unusual results because of the lockdowns. We don’t know if people recorded their workplace as if the lockdown wasn’t in place, or treated their home as their workplace. While a higher-than-expected number of “worked at home” responses might signal the latter, we can’t know for certain. </p>
<p>The 2021 census data won’t provide a reliable record of “normal” commuting patterns, nor an accurate record of commuting changes over time. It’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-than-a-third-of-australians-will-hunt-for-a-new-job-if-they-can-t-work-from-home-20220918-p5bixx.html">not even clear</a> if <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/data/taking-the-pulse-of-the-nation-2022/wave-48-49">work attendance</a> and commuting patterns will ever return to their pre-COVID state. </p>
<h2>What can we do about the census data?</h2>
<p>So the big question is how can decision-makers usefully work with the data to correct for the distortion of COVID lockdowns? We offer the following suggestions.</p>
<h4>Look at cities that weren’t in lockdown</h4>
<p>One option is to use the broad transport patterns from the least-locked-down parts of Australia, such as Adelaide or Perth. We can use their results and changes in transport mode over time to help estimate the results across other cities.</p>
<h4>Link to previous census results</h4>
<p>Another option would be to look at previous census results on journey to work for cities and try to match or predict what would have been expected in 2021 for different transport modes and distances. A benefit of this model is that previous results are available at local neighbourhood level and bring in the local influences of transport types and distances. </p>
<p>Another idea would be to look at the occupations that people list on their census forms, then match occupation types to transport modes used in previous census results. </p>
<h4>Match to household travel survey data</h4>
<p>Transport departments collect household-level travel data across a number of cities including <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/data-and-research/passenger-travel/surveys/household-travel-survey-hts">Sydney</a> and <a href="https://transport.vic.gov.au/about/data-and-research/vista">Melbourne</a> to understand how far people travel and what transport modes they use. These surveys could be used to model area-based differences in journey-to-work patterns based on more up-to-date commuting results than older census data. </p>
<h4>Investigate other travel datasets</h4>
<p>The use of big data has come a long way since 2016. Today we have a number of other public and private travel data sets that could be used. These include Google Mobility results, traffic light counts, road sensors and Myki/Opal/go card travel data. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman walks through barrier gates at a train station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485504/original/file-20220920-26-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/485504/original/file-20220920-26-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485504/original/file-20220920-26-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485504/original/file-20220920-26-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485504/original/file-20220920-26-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485504/original/file-20220920-26-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/485504/original/file-20220920-26-l4elwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Travel card readers capture a lot of information about commuters’ daily use of public transport.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">haireena/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These data sets could be linked or modelled with census results to get a better estimate of results in locked-down areas. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/household-impacts-covid-19-survey/latest-release">Quarterly</a> and <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/data/covid-19-tracker">annual</a> COVID surveys could also help to understand how transport has changed throughout the pandemic. </p>
<h4>Assess against other government data</h4>
<p>Data linkage is another area that the Australian Bureau of Statistics has been working over the years. An example is the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/about/data-services/data-integration/integrated-data/multi-agency-data-integration-project-madip">Multi-Agency Data Integration Project</a>, which has been designed to help gain further insights from census data. The Australian Tax Office holds employment and work-related vehicle claims that might also be helpful to identify transport modes and travel demands by area. </p>
<p>Strict privacy rules apply to these data, but government agencies working together could lead to better commuting data for cities affected by lockdowns in 2021. </p>
<p>All these options have strengths and weaknesses. None is as good as the complete set of census data unaffected by lockdowns. However, they are worth considering when 2021 journey-to-work results are <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/census/2021-census-data-release-plans/2021-census-product-release-guide#2021-data-release">released</a> on October 12. </p>
<p>Transport planners and researchers are ingenious. They will likely find ways to correct for the above problems to assess and understand transport patterns across Australian cities. Now is the time for discussion and ideas about these issues and the unusual census results to ensure transport planning is based on data that are both sound and up-to-date.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189071/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melanie Davern receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and funded by RMIT University as a Vice Chancellor's Senior Research Fellow.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Both receives funding from an NHMRC-UKRI (APP1192788) research grant.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from a range of research and industry organisations for projects on which Jago Dodson works. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tiebei (Terry) Li does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>City planning needs up-to-date data on where people work, how they get to work and how far they travel. Normally the census provides that, but this time round our biggest cities were in lockdown.Melanie Davern, Associate Professor, Director Australian Urban Observatory, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityAlan Both, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityJago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityTiebei (Terry) Li, Senior Research Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1609322021-06-20T20:17:03Z2021-06-20T20:17:03ZNSW on a slow track to fast trains: promised regional rail upgrades are long overdue<p>We have seen a succession of reviews, plans and election promises of faster and better train services for regional New South Wales, home to one <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/about-nsw/key-facts-about-nsw">third of the state’s population</a>, in recent years. Yet little had been heard from the state government on track works to allow new trains to travel faster until April 29 this year. This was when Premier Gladys Berejiklian <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/people-said-couldn-t-be-done-premier-says-nsw-on-track-for-faster-rail-network-20210428-p57n5n.html">told</a> a Sydney conference that serious regional development will need faster rail (trains moving at 150-200km/h on upgraded track with some straightening of track) and fast rail (speeds of 200-250km/h on new dedicated track).</p>
<p>The promised <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/people-said-couldn-t-be-done-premier-says-nsw-on-track-for-faster-rail-network-20210428-p57n5n.html">outcomes</a> include Sydney to Newcastle by rail in an hour rather than two-and-a-half hours, 25 minutes taken off Sydney-Wollongong and Sydney-Gosford train trips and travel between Sydney and Goulburn in under an hour instead of two-and-a-half hours for express trains. Details are still awaited on which lines will take priority and the scope of this work.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-halve-train-travel-times-between-our-cities-by-moving-to-faster-rail-116512">We can halve train travel times between our cities by moving to faster rail</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These developments have been years in the making. In late 2018, the NSW government <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/a-fast-rail-future-for-nsw">announced</a> international expert Andrew McNaughton would advise the government how best to deliver a fast rail network to connect Sydney to regional centres. Four lines were identified:</p>
<ul>
<li>north to the Central Coast, Newcastle and beyond</li>
<li>west via Lithgow to Orange/Parkes</li>
<li>southern inland to Goulburn/Canberra</li>
<li>southern coastal to Wollongong/Nowra. </li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406664/original/file-20210616-3785-1vkid69.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing routes of four fast rail lines between Sydney and regional NSW" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406664/original/file-20210616-3785-1vkid69.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406664/original/file-20210616-3785-1vkid69.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406664/original/file-20210616-3785-1vkid69.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406664/original/file-20210616-3785-1vkid69.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406664/original/file-20210616-3785-1vkid69.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406664/original/file-20210616-3785-1vkid69.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406664/original/file-20210616-3785-1vkid69.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The four fast rail lines connecting Sydney to regional NSW.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/a-fast-rail-future-for-nsw">A fast rail future for NSW/NSW government</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This followed a 20-Year Economic Vision for Regional NSW (recently <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/a-20-year-economic-vision-for-regional-nsw-refresh">refreshed</a>), which included a commitment to “make regional travel faster, easier and safer between and within regional centres, and to metropolitan areas”.</p>
<p>Transport for NSW also released a <a href="https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/plans/greater-newcastle-future-transport-plan">Greater Newcastle Future Transport Plan</a> in 2018. The plan outlined track work to enable trains to travel at higher speeds (with new ones now being delivered). This work included “reducing track curvature, deviations and realignments, removal of level crossings, junction rearrangement and better segregation of passenger and freight services”. </p>
<p>There have also been three studies of NSW track upgrades co-funded by the <a href="https://www.nfra.gov.au/">National Faster Rail Agency</a>.</p>
<p>In the lead-up to the March 2019 NSW election, funding was announced for a limited suite of track upgrades on the four main lines linking Sydney to regional NSW. The government also raised expectations of a new line from Eden to Cooma and the reinstatement of the line from Cooma to Canberra. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nsw-election-promises-on-transport-add-up-112531">How the NSW election promises on transport add up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/h7bMvkP5yLM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A NSW government video outlining the promise of fast rail in late 2018.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Much slow running of regional trains on each of the four main lines from Sydney is on sections of track that, about 100 years ago, were reconstructed with less steep climbs than 19th-century track. This allowed steam locomotives to handle heavier loads, but came at the expense of extra length and more curves. </p>
<p>Such track now slows down modern <a href="https://edisontechcenter.org/Dieseltrains.html">electric and diesel trains</a>. The table below shows the extent of the problem in NSW. It also shows indicative time savings from reverting to straighter track alignments (found in most cases by <a href="http://railknowledgebank.com/Presto/home/home.aspx">simulation work</a> by my co-researcher, Max Michell).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406669/original/file-20210616-15-1dgzn0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Table showing time savings from straighter track alignments on NSW regional rail lines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406669/original/file-20210616-15-1dgzn0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406669/original/file-20210616-15-1dgzn0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406669/original/file-20210616-15-1dgzn0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406669/original/file-20210616-15-1dgzn0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406669/original/file-20210616-15-1dgzn0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406669/original/file-20210616-15-1dgzn0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406669/original/file-20210616-15-1dgzn0o.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Table: The Conversation. Data: Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Other states acted decades ago</h2>
<p>Following track-straightening works between Brisbane and Cairns for faster and heavier freight trains, in 1998 Queensland Rail introduced a tilt train operating at speeds of up to 170km/h between Brisbane and Rockhampton. The train was well received and by 2002 had carried <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_Tilt_Train">1 million passengers</a>.</p>
<p>In 2004, new <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Prospector_(train_service)">Prospector diesel rail cars</a> were introduced to allow Perth-Kalgoorlie services to operate up to 160km/h with an average of 100km/h. </p>
<p>Victoria’s Regional Fast Rail Project was mostly completed by 2006. Following track upgrades on four lines to Bendigo, Ballarat (with deviations to improve train times), Geelong and Gippsland, new V/Locity trains travel at 160km/h. Within five years, patronage on these services had <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Fast_Rail_project">doubled</a>. </p>
<p>Victoria has followed up with two further extensive track upgrading programs, each with significant federal funding. The first was <a href="https://www.victrack.com.au/projects/past-projects/regional-rail-link">Regional Rail Link</a> (2009-15). Currently, at a cost of over A$4 billion, <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/regional-rail-revival">Regional Rail Revival</a> is upgrading every regional line in the state.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-how-regional-rail-can-help-ease-our-big-cities-commuter-crush-81902">This is how regional rail can help ease our big cities' commuter crush</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What about a decent service to Canberra?</h2>
<p>Sydney-Canberra train services are too few and too slow. High-speed rail options with trains capable of 250km/h or more on dedicated track for Sydney to Canberra, and beyond, have been studied extensively since 1984. In 1998, SpeedRail received in-principle support from the Howard government but that did not extend to financial support.</p>
<p>The uptake of bus travel – one operator offers a service on the hour for 12 hours a day – suggests more and faster train services would be well received. </p>
<p>In 2020, Infrastructure Australia listed an upgrade of this rail link as a “<a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/map/sydney-canberra-rail-connectivity-and-capacity">priority initiative</a>”.</p>
<p>The train service linking Australia’s largest city with the national capital has been <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6747301/the-case-for-fast-rail-from-canberra-to-sydney/">taken to task</a> by many commentators. It was recently well described as a “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-signals-renewed-focus-on-privatisation-will-go-it-alone-on-fast-rail-20210429-p57nl4.html">national disgrace</a>”. By way of contrast, New York to Washington DC has many more trains, which are <a href="https://www.amtrak.com/alternative-to-buses-new-york-city-washington-dc-train">much faster than buses</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="train at station" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406895/original/file-20210616-3629-11rfibv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/406895/original/file-20210616-3629-11rfibv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406895/original/file-20210616-3629-11rfibv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406895/original/file-20210616-3629-11rfibv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406895/original/file-20210616-3629-11rfibv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406895/original/file-20210616-3629-11rfibv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/406895/original/file-20210616-3629-11rfibv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The slow rail service between Sydney and Canberra has been dubbed a ‘national disgrace’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/express-train-canberra-sydney-central-station-556274326">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Back to New South Wales</h2>
<p>NSW has a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-charges-ahead-with-107-billion-infrastructure-pipeline-despite-record-deficit-20201117-p56fan.html">A$107 billion</a> “infastructure pipeline”. However, on a population basis, Sydney with its metros and motorways is getting much more than its fair share. Regional NSW is getting left behind. </p>
<p>The imbalance is increasing. The late 2020 budget allocated billions for the Sydney West Metro and preconstruction work on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-another-huge-and-costly-road-project-really-sydneys-best-option-right-now-136836">dubious Western Harbour Tunnel project</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-another-huge-and-costly-road-project-really-sydneys-best-option-right-now-136836">Is another huge and costly road project really Sydney's best option right now?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many NSW regional communities increasingly consider that their major party MPs haven’t had their best interests at heart. This is one reason for the election in 2019 of four lower house members from minor parties plus one independent. In the recent Upper Hunter byelection, the combined primary vote for the ALP and the Nationals was <a href="https://pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/SB2101/la/upper-hunter/fp_summary_report.html">just over 50%</a>. </p>
<p>Serious track work is now needed to lift NSW regional train speeds to those enjoyed in other states. As the Illawarra Rail Fail group sang in this YouTube video, regional NSW needs more trains and faster travel times to get us on our way.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4S3Xqzpz4Fk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Illawarra Rail Fail group has been campaigning for years for better services to the south coast.</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160932/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from the two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC. He is affiliated, inter alia, with Action for Public Transport (NSW), the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Railway Technical Society of Australasia and the Rail Futures Institute. The opinions expressed are those of the author. </span></em></p>Regional NSW, home to a third of the state’s population, is still waiting for the promise of faster train travel to be delivered. Other states improved their regional services years ago.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1621832021-06-08T20:06:30Z2021-06-08T20:06:30ZTowards the 30-minute city — how Australians’ commutes compare with cities overseas<p>The ease of reaching urban amenities underpins city life. We led a global research team that compared access to jobs in 117 cities across the globe, including eight capital cities in Australia, and examined strategies that might improve transport in our cities. The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">newly published research</a> finds access to jobs increases with population and that our two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, compare favourably with similarly sized cities overseas.</p>
<p>Transport infrastructure and land use patterns form the backbone of a city. It’s the reason so many people choose to live and work with other people in cities – despite the noise, congestion and negatives of city life – because they can easily reach a variety of destinations. Towards this objective, many planning agencies set themselves a “30-minute city” goal, which is behind many planning decisions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="heat map showing number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes across Greater Sydney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/404975/original/file-20210608-136167-cap00p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heat map showing access to jobs across Greater Sydney. Red denotes more jobs and green fewer jobs within 30 minutes’ travel time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/access-across-australia-mapping-30-minute-cities-how-do-our-capitals-compare-117498">Access across Australia: mapping 30-minute cities, how do our capitals compare?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What did the study find?</h2>
<p>The ease of reaching destinations can be measured by the number of jobs reachable within 30 minutes. Job locations offer both employment opportunities and amenities; restaurants, schools, hospitals, shopping centres and so on are also job clusters. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">research</a> measured how many jobs were accessible within 30 minutes (travelling one way) for four different modes of transport – cars, public transport, cycling and walking. The 117 cities studied are in 16 countries on six continents. The research finds cities really differ in the convenience of transport, but also finds significant similarities between cities from the same country. </p>
<p>Australian and Canadian cities have poorer car access than US, European and Chinese cities. They have better public transport, walking and cycling access than US cities, but access via these modes is generally not as good as in Europe and China.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">Australian city workers' average commute has blown out to 66 minutes a day. How does yours compare?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Cities in the United States have reasonable car access, but lag behind globally in public transport, walking and cycling access. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing numbers of jobs accessible within 30 minutes' cycling plotted against population for global cities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405235/original/file-20210609-23-sztbig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes’ cycling plotted against population for global cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">Urban Access Across the Globe 2021</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Chinese and European cities, compact development combined with an intensive network produces the highest access globally across all modes of transport. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes’ walking plotted against population for global cities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405238/original/file-20210609-17-17b0500.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes’ walking plotted against population for global cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">Urban Access Across the Globe 2021</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One surprising finding is the middling car access in US cities. Despite the reputation of US cities being built around the car, urban sprawl has made it difficult to reach destinations even by car. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing numbers of jobs accessible within 30 minutes' drive by car plotted against population for global cities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405231/original/file-20210609-23-1gnc78a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes by car plotted against population for global cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">Urban Access Across the Globe 2021</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This sprawl also exposes the Achilles heel in mass transit and non-motorised modes. Immense spatial separation makes for worse access by public transport and active modes of transport such as cycling and walking. US cities have the largest disparity between public transport and car travel.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes by public transport plotted against population for global cities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405230/original/file-20210609-23-10ue63m.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of jobs accessible within 30 minutes by public transport plotted against population for global cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-021-00020-2">Urban Access Across the Globe 2021</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This research also finds access to jobs increases with city population, so reaching a greater number of desired destinations would be easier for people in larger cities than in smaller cities. So, despite traffic congestion, larger cities are still more efficient in connecting people with places they want to go. </p>
<p>However, this benefit has diminishing returns. Doubling the metropolitan population results in less than a doubling of access to jobs. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-close-is-sydney-to-the-vision-of-creating-three-30-minute-cities-115847">How close is Sydney to the vision of creating three 30-minute cities?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are the lessons for Australian cities?</h2>
<p>The moral of the story is that we don’t need to choose between the US-style sprawling development and European-style compact cities. We can and should have the benefits of both development patterns. We need both density and a well-developed transport network for better access. </p>
<p>Massive road building alone can improve access by car to only a limited extent. The problem is that investments in road infrastructure are often accompanied by lower-density development. That makes it harder for people who walk, bike or use public transport to reach increasingly separated places.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-changes-in-how-we-live-could-derail-the-dream-of-the-30-minute-city-110287">Three changes in how we live could derail the dream of the 30-minute city</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In cities that do have compact land-use patterns, access to jobs remain high across all modes of transport, including cars. So, despite congestion, it is still easier to reach desired destinations in these compact cities. Roads are not race tracks, and high-speed roadways connecting nobody with nowhere are not better than lower-speed paths connecting people and places. </p>
<p>The Australian government is investing <a href="https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/">A$110 billion</a> over the next ten years in transport infrastructure. This will have significant implications for the future of our cities. If we want our cities to continue to be vibrant, liveable and accessible by all modes of transport, we will need to keep our cities compact and invest more in public transport, walking and biking.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">People love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn't it top of the agenda?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Levinson has received grants as a Professor at the University of Sydney, including funding from the iMOVE CRC. He has also received funding from the World Bank. He is on the Board of WalkSydney. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hao Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A global study of 117 cities finds Australian capitals have fairly poor access by car. Public transport, cycling and walking access is better than in the US, but not as good as in Europe and China.Hao Wu, PhD Candidate, School of Civil Engineering, University of SydneyDavid Levinson, Professor of Transport, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1609332021-06-03T20:10:33Z2021-06-03T20:10:33ZDon’t forget the need for zero-emission buses in the push for electric cars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403699/original/file-20210601-25-1v0qzgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C23%2C5168%2C3422&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nh53/11048683445">NH53/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As part of efforts to decarbonise urban transport, <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-and-events/media-releases/first-electric-bus-for-sydneys-south-west">Australian</a> <a href="https://transport.vic.gov.au/our-transport-future/future-directions-for-transport/our-strategic-directions/environmentally-sustainable-transport/transport-sector-emissions-reduction-pledge">states</a> and the <a href="https://www.cmtedd.act.gov.au/open_government/inform/act_government_media_releases/chris-steel-mla-media-releases/2021/strong-interest-in-the-acts-zero-emission-bus-transition">ACT</a> have <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/the-future-now-solar-powered-bus-takes-first-passengers-20210412-p57ijq.html">announced</a> various zero-emission bus trials and targets for replacing diesel buses. These trials are designed to help resolve some of the complex technical and contractual issues facing bus operators and public transport agencies. </p>
<p>It is important to remember the vital role of buses, and public transport more generally, in decarbonising the transport sector — Australia’s <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-update-december-2020#download-the-full-report-and-data">third-largest source</a> of greenhouse gas emissions. We fear this point has been lost in recent <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/5bEMBARGOED5d-AGE-EV-tax.pdf">climate advocacy</a> highlighting the slow pace of the transition to green propulsion for private cars in Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403730/original/file-20210601-19-1r9uw3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing Australian transport sector greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2020" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403730/original/file-20210601-19-1r9uw3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403730/original/file-20210601-19-1r9uw3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403730/original/file-20210601-19-1r9uw3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403730/original/file-20210601-19-1r9uw3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403730/original/file-20210601-19-1r9uw3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403730/original/file-20210601-19-1r9uw3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403730/original/file-20210601-19-1r9uw3v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-update-december-2020#download-the-full-report-and-data">Chart. The Conversation. Data: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update December 2020</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905">Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our research aims to learn more about the obstacles to an effective transition to zero-emission buses. We are engaging mainly with groups connected with the trial announced by the <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/investing-buses-future">Victorian Department of Transport</a> in late 2020, but the issues are similar across Australia. </p>
<h2>Why can’t we rely on electric cars?</h2>
<p>Even if Australia’s transition to green-electric cars is successful, the climate benefits will be less than we need. The <a href="https://51431d88-662c-4884-b7bc-b5b93a225b7d.filesusr.com/ugd/d0bd25_bbeb4c905a2b4121b0ef3870648f78cf.pdf">carbon costs</a> of manufacturing replacements for Australia’s <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/motor-vehicle-census-australia/latest-release">20 million-strong</a> vehicle fleet will be equivalent to around 20 years’ emissions from Australia’s <a href="https://environmentvictoria.org.au/our-campaigns/safe-climate/yallourn-australias-dirtiest-power/#:%7E:text=Yallourn%20power%20station%20is%20producing,1.34%20tCO2%2De%2FMWh.">dirtiest brown coal generator</a> at Yallourn. And tonnes of concrete and bitumen will continue to be laid for new toll roads and car parks. </p>
<p>A city of electric vehicles will also perpetuate the fatal burdens of car dependence: <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-need-for-speed-transport-spending-priorities-leave-city-residents-worse-off-94166">urban sprawl</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-policy-that-relies-on-a-shift-to-electric-cars-risks-entrenching-existing-inequities-160856">inequitable access</a> to the riches of city life, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">suppression of cycling and walking</a>, and a host of <a href="https://theconversation.com/designing-suburbs-to-cut-car-use-closes-gaps-in-health-and-wealth-83961">health risks</a> ranging from physical inactivity to air pollution. Even if exhausts were cleaner, recent <a href="https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/library/reports.php?report_id=992">UK research</a> shows a significant proportion of damaging particulates come from worn tyres and brake linings. </p>
<p>To protect the climate and to make city life safer, fairer and healthier, we need policies that take cars off the roads, regardless of how they are fuelled. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Late afternoon congestion in both directions on the Kwinana Freeway (looking north towards and onto the Narrows Bridge) in Perth, Western Australia" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403702/original/file-20210601-23-oh8d75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403702/original/file-20210601-23-oh8d75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403702/original/file-20210601-23-oh8d75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403702/original/file-20210601-23-oh8d75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403702/original/file-20210601-23-oh8d75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403702/original/file-20210601-23-oh8d75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403702/original/file-20210601-23-oh8d75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Apart from emissions, electric cars won’t solve the other problems associated with heavy car use – such as traffic jams – and could even make them worse.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kwinana_Narrows_heavy_traffic_Dec_2020.jpg">Orderinchaos/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/think-taxing-electric-vehicle-use-is-a-backward-step-heres-why-its-an-important-policy-advance-150644">Think taxing electric vehicle use is a backward step? Here's why it's an important policy advance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Bus services are under-utilised — we can fix that</h2>
<p>The technical complexities of the transition to zero-emission buses could, if we are not careful, lead governments to lose sight of this bigger picture. Buses can help reduce demand for car travel, but only if they operate as effective links in a seamless public transport network. </p>
<p>In Melbourne, for example, many buses run <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/running-on-empty-secret-data-reveals-melbourne-s-ghost-buses-20190424-p51gpm.html">almost empty</a>. Routes are convoluted and services infrequent. It would be a travesty to invest millions in moving to greener buses without improving services in ways that increase patronage. </p>
<p>We can use internationally <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/53363">proven techniques</a> to restructure the network so buses provide practical and convenient alternatives to the car. We can then attract a new generation of riders who currently <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/1850927">think</a> that “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/mornings/8257746">buses are not for me</a>”. This is achievable within <a href="https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/file/b3d823ed-2030-45cf-b19c-f32a47b3c95e/1/PDF%20(Accepted%20manuscript).pdf">current Australian urban densities</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-cities-planning-to-spend-billions-on-light-rail-should-look-again-at-what-buses-can-do-156844">Why cities planning to spend billions on light rail should look again at what buses can do</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What other challenges must be overcome?</h2>
<p>The first technical challenge is to decide between electric battery and hydrogen power. Most governments are leaning towards batteries. This is largely because the technology and its support systems are more evolved. </p>
<p>However, not all battery buses are created equal. One configuration might work well for a bus that will operate on short routes and can easily return to base to recharge. A bus that will operate on longer or steeper routes might need a different set-up. Operators will need to understand these trade-offs before they order new vehicles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="electric bus operating on the Balmain route in Sydney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403700/original/file-20210601-27-1wj2h3p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403700/original/file-20210601-27-1wj2h3p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403700/original/file-20210601-27-1wj2h3p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403700/original/file-20210601-27-1wj2h3p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403700/original/file-20210601-27-1wj2h3p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403700/original/file-20210601-27-1wj2h3p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/403700/original/file-20210601-27-1wj2h3p.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of Sydney’s ‘Electric Blu’ buses running on the Balmain route – operators must select battery-powered buses that suit their intended route.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ElectricBusSydney.jpg">MDRZ/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As established supply chains and cost structures for fossil fuels become obsolete, operators will also need to come to grips with the intricacies of Australia’s electricity market. At the same time, the power industry is grappling with new forecasts for <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/newsroom/news-updates/report-highlights-data-needs-for-a-smooth-transition-to-evs">demand</a> and the infrastructure required for <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336733804_How_many_electric_vehicles_can_the_current_Australian_electricity_grid_support">secure supply</a>. Added to this, there are fears of a repeat of the “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-18/australian-gold-plated-power-grid/8721566">gold-plating</a>” by private energy providers and distributors that has plagued the industry in recent years.</p>
<p>The change of power source also creates new challenges for fleet managers. If the transition takes several years, how will an operator manage the changing demands on depot space for refuelling and maintenance? Are depots in the right locations for new patterns of refuelling and deployment? How will the workforce gain the new skills they will need? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-switching-to-electric-transport-makes-sense-even-if-electricity-is-not-fully-renewable-136502">Climate explained: why switching to electric transport makes sense even if electricity is not fully renewable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Issues won’t be resolved overnight</h2>
<p>These issues and other technical questions can certainly be resolved. However, the institutional framework in which this must occur makes it hard to imagine it can be done quickly. </p>
<p>In Melbourne, buses operate under more than 15 <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/footer/customer-service/operator-contact-details/#metropolitanbus">different contracts</a>, some with multinationals and others with tiny family businesses. These contracts vary in their provisions for determining routes and frequencies, for fleet and depot ownership, and for rollover or re-tendering. This complexity is a historical legacy compounded by decades of political and bureaucratic inertia. </p>
<p>The challenge for governments is to find a path to introducing zero-emission buses and reforming bus networks that deals with the technical uncertainties and the allocation of cost and risk in a fragmented market. The arrival of new commercial players — offering combined bus procurement, operation, charging infrastructure and energy supply — makes the market all the more complex. Nevertheless, success is crucial for the climate and for the health of our cities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-policy-that-relies-on-a-shift-to-electric-cars-risks-entrenching-existing-inequities-160856">Climate policy that relies on a shift to electric cars risks entrenching existing inequities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160933/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stone has received funding from the ARC and other Australian and international research bodies and has consulted to state and local governments. He provides volunteer support to the Friends of the Earth Sustainable Cities campaign. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Lawrie and Nat Manawadu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Transport is the one sector where Australia hasn’t reined in the growth in greenhouse gas emissions. Electric cars will cut emissions but still leave us with all the other problems of car use.John Stone, Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning, The University of MelbourneIain Lawrie, PhD Candidate and Sessional Lecturer in Planning, The University of MelbourneNat Manawadu, Research Assistant, Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1604592021-05-16T19:54:44Z2021-05-16T19:54:44ZRise of transport megaprojects adds to Australian taxpayers’ risk of paying too much<p>When governments decide to build a new road, bridge or train line, their first concern should be getting it at the cheapest possible long-term price for a given quality standard. But our new report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/megabang-for-megabucks/">Megabang for Megabucks</a>, shows cost management is rarely top of mind for governments. And, with the trend towards ever-larger projects, the risk that a lack of competition for contracts will push up prices is very real.</p>
<p>Australia is an expensive place to build large transport projects. An <a href="https://transitcosts.com/">international study</a> of rail projects found costs in Australia are in the top quarter of 27 OECD countries. Our costs are much higher than in many other rich countries: 26% higher than in Canada, 29% higher than in Japan, and more than three times as high as in Spain. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing average costs per kilometre of railway infrastructure by country" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400428/original/file-20210512-19-pobt4w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: includes all OECD countries in the study. Costs converted to US dollars on a purchasing power parity basis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://transitcosts.com/">Data source: Transit Costs Project, Levy (2020)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, international comparisons are fraught. The cost of any particular project depends on local factors such as geology, location and the extent of the existing network.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-evidence-base-for-big-calls-on-infrastructure-costs-us-all-99080">Missing evidence base for big calls on infrastructure costs us all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But competition among construction firms is crucial if taxpayers are going to get the best price. Robust <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiBRCBicGQg">competition</a> encourages firms to bid as low as they can and to innovate. If there is a field of potential bidders on megaproject contracts and the market is open to new entrants, there is also less opportunity for firms to <a href="https://knowledgehub.transparency.org/helpdesk/collusion-in-public-procurement-contracts">collude</a> by market-sharing, bid-rigging or price-fixing.</p>
<h2>Bigger contracts reduce competition</h2>
<p>Megaprojects – projects costing more than A$1 billion – are typically broken up into a handful of contracts. For the smaller contracts – worth A$500 million or less – there are few concerns about competition: many firms can bid for and win these contracts. But the larger the contract, the thinner the potential field of construction firms gets. </p>
<p>Australia’s “big three” or “tier one” firms – CPB, John Holland and Acciona – win the vast majority of contracts over $1 billion, either independently or in a joint venture with other firms, as the chart below shows. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing number of contracts over $1 billion awarded to firms of different sizes since 2006" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400723/original/file-20210514-15-obazu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: We classify John Holland, CIMIC Group firms CPB Contractors (formerly Leighton Holdings) and Thiess, Lendlease, Bilfinger Berger (including.
Valemus firms Abigroup and Baulderstone), and Acciona as tier one firms. Acciona is included as a tier one firm for all past projects, even though it only became a
tier one with the acquisition of Lendlease Engineering in 2020. All construction contracts considered by the procuring agency as a major contract or work
package are included, for projects over $1 billion since 2006. Does not include rolling-stock contracts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/megabang-for-megabucks/">Grattan Institute</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For the largest contracts, even the tier one firms don’t usually go it alone. A joint venture involving two of the big three has won eight out of 11 contracts larger than $3 billion. When two of these firms form a joint venture, local firms have very little opportunity to compete: even a bid involving the other tier one firm is unlikely to be successful. </p>
<p>An extreme case is the <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/roads-projects/m4-m5-link-rozelle-interchange/">Rozelle Interchange</a> as part of the WestConnex motorway project in New South Wales. At first it attracted <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-12/westconnex-nsw-government-rejects-only-bid-for-m4-m5-interchange/9042082">only one bid</a> – from a joint venture between all three tier one firms. The state government rejected this offer and re-tendered the job, redesigning the contract in an attempt to entice more bidders. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/westconnex-audit-offers-another-17b-lesson-in-how-not-to-fund-infrastructure-73206">WestConnex audit offers another $17b lesson in how not to fund infrastructure</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Victorian government is clearly aware of the risk of limited competition when tier one firms form joint ventures. It <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/lendlease-john-holland-cimic-sidelined-on-victorias-north-east-link-tollroad-20180921-h15pb4">banned joint ventures</a> of two or more tier one firms from bidding for the <a href="https://northeastlink.vic.gov.au/works/early-works-program">North East Link</a> freeway. The government preferred to encourage bids by international firms or mid-tier Australian firms.</p>
<p>And what’s really concerning is that these megacontracts are becoming the norm. Contracts above $3 billion in value were a rarity before 2014. In the seven years since, there have been ten, as the chart below shows. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing distribution of projects worth over $1 billion signed from 2006 onwards" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/400725/original/file-20210514-13-1l91h92.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Notes: includes only construction contracts for megaprojects (projects over $1 billion) where the first contract was signed during or after 2006. Does not include rolling-stock contracts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/megabang-for-megabucks/">Grattan Institute</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pm-wants-to-fast-track-mega-projects-for-pandemic-recovery-heres-why-thats-a-bad-idea-136838">The PM wants to fast-track mega-projects for pandemic recovery. Here's why that’s a bad idea</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can governments do about this?</h2>
<p>Governments can take a couple of important steps to ensure there’s enough competition for contracts.</p>
<p>First, ensure international firms can freely enter the Australian market and bid on government contracts.</p>
<p>When two tier one firms form a joint venture to bid on very large contracts, the only avenue for competition is to involve international construction giants. So it’s crucial that Australian governments don’t give undue priority to domestic experience and cut the internationals out. </p>
<p>Governments should publish weighted criteria for bid selection. This ensures the international firms can be confident they’re not wasting resources bidding, only for governments to stick with the safe option of favouring local firms.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spectacular-cost-blowouts-show-need-to-keep-governments-honest-on-transport-66394">Spectacular cost blowouts show need to keep governments honest on transport</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Second, avoid bundling work into bigger contracts than necessary.
Governments have an incentive to enact <a href="https://hvia.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/Austroads-AP-R624-20_Procurement_Decision_Tool.pdf">fewer and larger contracts</a> to make contract management simpler and minimise interface risks. These are the risks arising from interactions between multiple contractors, for example relating to site access. But bigger contracts mean fewer firms can bid for the work, particularly when different types of work are bundled together into a single package. </p>
<p>Governments should develop and use a systematic, consistent and transparent process to bundle up packages of work within a project. Examples would be splitting a highway upgrade into a number of smaller sections, or separating the design and construction tasks on a new rail line. </p>
<p>Megaprojects are making up an <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/the-rise-of-megaprojects-counting-the-costs/">ever-bigger portion</a> of transport infrastructure projects. Governments must focus on keeping the long-term cost as low as possible for the preferred quality standard. Otherwise, taxpayers will be at risk of paying over the odds.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-may-live-to-regret-open-slather-construction-stimulus-139967">We may live to regret open-slather construction stimulus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p>Three big firms win almost all the $1 billion-plus contracts. And they often team up in joint ventures, further reducing the competition that would keep the price tags of road and rail projects down.Owain Emslie, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1572432021-04-26T20:06:10Z2021-04-26T20:06:10ZAll your transport options in one place: why mobility as a service needs a proper platform<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396441/original/file-20210422-15-rwkc5g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2002%2C1688%2C2631%2C1670&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/knR3v0TZ0IA?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditShareLink">Edi Kurniawan/Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Uber, Ola, Car Next Door, GoGet, Urbi and Shareabike have transformed the mobility experience for millions of people, but are just the tip of the looming iceberg of changes in transport. Globally, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/833743/us-users-ride-sharing-services/">93 million travellers use the Uber app</a> on a monthly basis. More Australians use <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8098-uber-overtakes-taxis-june-2019-201908260239">Uber (22.9%) than taxis (21.8%)</a>. </p>
<p>The public clearly has an appetite for mobility as a service (<a href="https://maas-alliance.eu/homepage/what-is-maas/">MaaS</a>). People want to plan, book and pay for various forms of transport via a digital platform. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">For Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, mobility service providers are actors in search of a stage. As with software, computing and entertainment, only when a properly designed and managed platform underpins all the services will the real transformation be unlocked. </p>
<h2>The 3 pillars of the platform</h2>
<p>MaaS is part of a broader evolution as novel technologies have driven the rapid transformation of products and offerings into collections of services. Smartphone applications rely on digital distribution platforms such as Google Play Store, Apple Store, Microsoft Store and Amazon Cloud. Similarly, the evolving technologies and mechanisms of mobility systems require a platform for distribution. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-subscribe-to-movies-and-music-why-not-transport-119538">We subscribe to movies and music, why not transport?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The platform concept should include at least three key elements: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>integrated ticketing and payment: user payments are managed in a uniform and adaptable manner across all providers</p></li>
<li><p>accessible, standardised regulations with open data: regulations and data are managed to be accessible/plug-n-play, secure and equitable</p></li>
<li><p>reputation management: reputations of providers and users are managed in a scalable, fair and efficient way.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>If the platform is designed poorly, markets will be distorted, privacy will be violated, and escalating infrastructure costs will continue to burden taxpayers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The 3 critical elements of mobility infrastructure as a platform" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394741/original/file-20210413-23-1v4jje5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The critical elements of mobility infrastructure as a platform.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Moving towards integrated payment</h2>
<p>Historically, the transport platform has simply been the physical networks – roads, walking paths, cycle paths, rail and so on – and the ancillary infrastructure such as stations, airports, ports, vehicle storage and parking. Governments must reimagine existing physical infrastructure as part of the mobility services platform. </p>
<p>Recent innovations have focused not only on infrastructure development – autonomous vehicle systems, for example – but also on managing existing infrastructure. For example, cities around the world have moved towards <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162515004217?casa_token=A7yKna6gNDsAAAAA:l0gVSeOgdxiC4i4Z5Qy0F2sHSTv0kybrtUaqxpD7FVML5D84ZyYH_7hFWiwAi_foii8UiCYT1WWT">rail automation</a> and smart ticketing for public transport (Opal, Oyster, Octopus and Myki cards). The smart cards market for public transport in the US alone was valued at <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349589060_Public_Transport_Smart_Cards_Market_was_valued_at_US_5720_Bn_in_2018">US$57.2 billion (A$73.9bn) in 2018</a>.</p>
<p>Setting up seamless payment across services is the first pillar of the platform needed to support mobility as a service. It removes a major barrier to entry for service providers and users. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="public transport station with the words 'Did you tag off?' painted on the pavement" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396471/original/file-20210422-21-1braeyg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smart cards were an essential step towards an integrated system of ticketing, payments and patronage data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SmartRider_Did_you_tag_off_Welshpool.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Significant efforts to integrate payments are ongoing. The other two essential pillars of a MaaS platform require much more attention.</p>
<p>Mobility as a service is seen as a solution to various transport problems, particularly by reducing private vehicle use. Customers are being promised efficient door-to-door multi-modal travel through a single holistic application. In reality, the infrastructure to achieve this is not yet present. </p>
<p>Research has raised questions about its benefits, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856418309601">social impacts and governance</a>. For instance, emphasising smaller-scale, more flexible mobility services in unideal environments can <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0965856418312229?casa_token=QJn8ooRQiPoAAAAA:5lsMxJTdk-YVj36BK19sXNx6zJ00FmizwiwtmJ6RY-xs0Ne-Yn2mbc-sgPN7ZXSSjEElh6qGMUM">increase congestion and undermine urban planning goals</a>. </p>
<h2>Why regulation is essential</h2>
<p>The value and risks the platform creates for mobility providers, users, disadvantaged groups and society must all be kept in mind. The aim should be to create a fair marketplace that enables participation, innovation, equity and quality service. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-are-pouring-into-mobility-technology-will-the-transport-revolution-live-up-to-the-hype-131154">Billions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The second pillar, accessible, standardised regulations with open data paradigms, will enable service providers to participate in a market that delivers societal benefits. Innovations by providers must conform to a common “plug-n-play” approach that meets the mobility needs of the community as efficiently as possible. Crowd-sourced data (such as from Google or TomTom), user demand data from travel cards and traffic volume data should be available in the one platform for all service providers. </p>
<p>This is a complex undertaking, and data privacy must be a core component. It calls for strong professional leadership.</p>
<p>A big part of the challenge is that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/A-Cox/publication/227910305_Managing_construction_supply_chains_The_common_sense_approach/links/5c239797299bf12be39c132a/Managing-construction-supply-chains-The-common-sense-approach.pdf">civil infrastructure cannot be unified in the same way as IT infrastructure</a> or cloud computing. Civil infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure, is also expensive to build and maintain over its long lifespan, so the MaaS platform must be able to help optimise existing infrastructure to meet public mobility needs. </p>
<p>Regulation based on the protection and service of society is the only way to achieve this. The regulatory framework must be standardised, fair and accessible. This means any service providers adhering to the standards can join (and leave) the market without “insider” barriers. </p>
<h2>Balancing profit with public benefits</h2>
<p>Though it is a difficult task, we should apply the <a href="https://www.sam-solutions.com/blog/everything-as-a-service-xaas-definition-and-examples/">“everything as a service” concept</a> with clear standardisation and regulation to deliver equitable and sustainable transport services. </p>
<p>This also offers a way to integrate profit maximisation and social welfare within transport but also involving <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191261520304057">adjacent services such as parking</a>.</p>
<p>In the rail industry, standardisation has enabled more commoditised heavy and light rail systems and vehicles. Commoditisation is a process that creates reliable nearly identical products – rail services in this case – in the eyes of consumers. They can choose between these competing products based on cost and which best suits their needs at the time. This process has improved the economics, safety, accessibility and technology of rail services. </p>
<p>Over the past decade, the European Commission has implemented laws and policies to create a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0965856413001687">Single European Railway Area</a>. The goal is to revitalise the sector by creating a single market for interoperable rail services that are more innovative and competitive. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map showing progress on Single European Railway Area" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/396439/original/file-20210422-17-1c3yw9n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Single European Railway Area is a long-term project that is starting to show the benefits of integration.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://eu.boell.org/en/rail-the-challenges-of-a-single-european-railway-area">Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung/European Union</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Managing reviews and reputations</h2>
<p>Finally, reputation management is essential for a mobility infrastructure platform. Reviews and reputation management have been a driving force for Uber, <a href="https://www.geekwire.com/2016/amazon-puts-new-limit-customer-reviews-no-5-week-except-verified-purchases/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%9CCustomers%20can%20now%20only%20submit,reviews%20will%20not%20be%20impacted">Amazon</a>, eBay, iTunes, Airbnb etc. </p>
<p>A user-driven reputational management system must be trustworthy, scalable and resistant to tampering and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342443933_A_robust_reputation_system_using_online_reviews">malignant reviews</a>. Blockchain technologies could help build the required trust.</p>
<p>Mobility will increasingly be delivered as a service to travellers. New technologies combined with social awareness and strong professional leadership will all be needed to develop the platform.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was co-authored by Victor Prados-Valerio, a Senior Associate at the advisory firm TSA Management, who has been a project manager and senior rolling stock engineer on train, light rail and depot procurement projects in Australia and overseas.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157243/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article was co-authored by Victor Prados-Valerio.
S. Travis Waller is a Director at Mobility Thinking Pty Ltd. He receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Transport for NSW, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd and CISCO Systems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kasun Wijayaratna is a Director at Mobility Thinking Pty Ltd and a Visiting Research Fellow at the Research Centre for Integrated Transport Innovation at UNSW. He has received funding from Transport for NSW and the City of Adelaide. </span></em></p>It has happened with software, computing and entertainment, but we’re still waiting for the platform needed for mobility as a service to reach its full potential.S. Travis Waller, Professor and Head of the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW SydneyKasun Wijayaratna, Lecturer in Roads and Transport Engineering, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1568442021-04-05T20:07:39Z2021-04-05T20:07:39ZWhy cities planning to spend billions on light rail should look again at what buses can do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392737/original/file-20210331-21-cpalne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C15%2C5184%2C3430&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many cities in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/parramatta-light-rail-costs-blow-out-to-more-than-35-billion-20161015-gs300q.html">Australia</a> and <a href="https://wrirosscities.org/our-work/project-city/brtdataorg-global-database-bus-rapid-transit">around the world</a> have recently made or proposed investments in new light rail systems. They often do so in the belief this will not only increase public transport use, but also lead urban renewal and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016718517300210">improve a city’s global image</a>. However, compared to light rail, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X21000018">my research</a> shows a system of buses running along dedicated corridors, known as <a href="http://bic.asn.au/information-for-moving-people/bus-rapid-transit">bus rapid transit</a>, has many advantages for Adelaide (the focus of my research) and cities like it.</p>
<p>The advantages include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a bus rapid transit system is cheaper to construct and run</p></li>
<li><p>it takes less time to introduce with less disruption</p></li>
<li><p>being able to leave designated lanes offers greater flexibility to pick up passengers where and when needed.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In contrast, retrofitting light rail onto arterial roads has proven <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/parramatta-light-rail-costs-blow-out-to-more-than-35-billion-20161015-gs300q.html">expensive</a>, slow and <a href="https://www.railway-technology.com/features/sydney-light-rail-fiasco/">highly disruptive</a>. For example, 12.5km of arterial-based <a href="https://www.railexpress.com.au/auditor-general-calculates-cost-of-sydney-light-rail-at-3-1bn/">light rail in Sydney</a> cost over A$150 million per kilometre and took more than five years to complete. Given these inherent problems, Australian cities such as <a href="https://www.transportplan.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/117444/Our_Plan.pdf">Adelaide</a> with new light rail systems on the drawing board should first take another look at bus rapid transit.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trackless-trams-v-light-rail-its-not-a-contest-both-can-improve-our-cities-125134">Trackless trams v light rail? It's not a contest – both can improve our cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Australian cities face hurdles to public transport use</h2>
<p>Most Australian state and territory governments have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837718316983">similar transport-related goals</a>. These include to become more environmentally sustainable and reduce traffic congestion, which saps productivity. They typically aim to achieve these goals <a href="https://www.transport.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/1613302/200601-ACT-Transport-Strategy_web.pdf">by increasing public transport use</a> at the expense of cars. </p>
<p>Globally, affluent cities with high levels of public transport use have <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192091400114X">comprehensive public transport networks</a>. These systems allow people to travel from one place to another anywhere in the city quickly, cheaply and conveniently with minimal interchanges. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">Our new PM wants to 'bust congestion' – here are four ways he could do that</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In contrast, Australian cities are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192091400114X">car-oriented</a>. Their radial <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07293682.2013.795179">“hub and spoke” public transport systems</a> primarily allow people to get to central business districts and occasionally major regional centres quickly, cheaply and conveniently. They struggle to do so for suburb-to-suburb trips. </p>
<p>In Australian cities, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0.55.001%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7ECommuting%20Distance%20to%20Place%20of%20Work%7E30">75-90% of jobs and commerce</a> are located in their suburbs. This means the structure of public transport is a major challenge for increasing patronage at the expense of cars. But what if existing arterial roads can be converted for use by rapid bus transit?</p>
<h2>Adelaide: a case study</h2>
<p>My research looked at the alternative of bus rapid transit along a corridor in metropolitan Adelaide where a <a href="https://www.transportplan.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/117444/Our_Plan.pdf">new light rail track</a> is proposed. From the CBD, this corridor runs about 7km east to the hills and 9km west to the sea. As an indication of the likely cost, a 1km extension along North Terrace of an existing line cost <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/cost-of-adelaide-tram-to-blow-out-to-124m">more than $A120 million</a> in 2018. </p>
<p>The area within 3km of the corridor contains around <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X21000018">40% of metropolitan Adelaide’s jobs</a>, major recreation and shopping facilities, most of its universities, and the airport.
Buses running in often highly congested and slow traffic provide the only public transport in the area. As a result, public transport use is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X21000018">very low</a> compared to similar areas in other Australian cities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-avoid-cars-clogging-our-cities-during-coronavirus-recovery-140744">How to avoid cars clogging our cities during coronavirus recovery</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Bus rapid transit services run along designated lanes down the centre of arterial roads, as would an arterial-based light rail. </p>
<p>Stops are spaced at similar intervals to light rail and resemble stations rather than a typical bus stop. Such systems are in place around the globe, one of the most famous being in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/26/curitiba-brazil-brt-transport-revolution-history-cities-50-buildings">Curitiba, Brazil</a>. </p>
<h2>The advantages of buses add up</h2>
<p>The great advantage a bus-based system has over light rail is cost. They can run along existing roads and don’t need expensive tracks and overhead wires. </p>
<p>As a result, bus rapid transit <a href="https://www.itdp.org/library/standards-and-guides/the-bus-rapid-transit-standard/">can be built</a> for <a href="https://wrirosscities.org/our-work/project-city/brtdataorg-global-database-bus-rapid-transit">less than 10% of the cost of light rail</a>. The buses are also <a href="https://wrirosscities.org/tags/brtdataorg">cheaper to run</a> per passenger journey and have similar journey speeds to light rail. Bus rapid transit can be established in <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4sn2f5wc">months rather than years with minimal disruption</a> to surrounding businesses and residents.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trees-versus-light-rail-we-need-to-rethink-skewed-urban-planning-values-57206">Trees versus light rail: we need to rethink skewed urban planning values</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Buses do have some disadvantages compared to light rail. For a start, when diesel buses are used, they cause significant <a href="https://ppiaf.org/sites/ppiaf.org/files/documents/toolkits/UrbanBusToolkit/assets/1/1b/1b12.html#:%7E:text=Buses%20may%20contribute%20to%20atmospheric,fuel%20and%20emit%20excessive%20exhaust.">noise and air pollution</a>. Using electric buses can overcome these problems. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Electric bus being charged on a road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392736/original/file-20210331-23-1pxifuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Using electric buses overcomes the problems of noise and air pollution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/electric-bus-on-city-street-1452327569">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-forget-buses-six-rules-for-improving-city-bus-services-94984">Don't forget buses: six rules for improving city bus services</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In addition, individual vehicles normally carry fewer passengers than light rail. However, my research shows low passenger capacity per vehicle is an advantage in low-density suburban areas, such as those along the proposed corridor in Adelaide. That’s because it means the buses have to run more often, making the service more regular, convenient and reliable. </p>
<p>Another advantage over light rail is that in low-density areas, vehicles can leave designated lanes and venture for 2-4km into suburbs to pick up and drop off passengers. This vastly expands the number of households in the system’s catchment and means passengers can get to their destinations with no interchange or just one. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-million-rides-and-counting-on-demand-services-bring-public-transport-to-the-suburbs-132355">1 million rides and counting: on-demand services bring public transport to the suburbs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Finally, the inner and middle suburbs of Adelaide, where most residents live and work, have many wide straight roads suitable for bus rapid transit services. It would be possible to develop around 100km of BRT lanes connecting existing light rail, heavy rail and busway infrastructure. I estimate a comprehensive network could be built for well under a billion dollars in a few years. </p>
<p>A similarly sized light rail network would cost tens of billions of dollars and take decades to complete, if it was to happen at all. </p>
<p>Therefore, if cities want people to switch from cars to public transport, bus rapid transit is the superior option in metropolitan Adelaide and potentially other cities with arterial road networks and low suburban densities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156844/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael McGreevy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In many cities contemplating new light rail systems, bus rapid transit offers a cheaper, faster and more flexible solution.Michael McGreevy, Research Associate, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1518442021-02-01T18:58:05Z2021-02-01T18:58:05ZWhy e-bikes can succeed where earlier bike-share schemes failed<p>Shared mobility devices such as bicycles and electric scooters have experienced <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/10/09/bikes-and-buses-will-be-futures-dominant-modes-of-urban-mobility-predict-346-transport-experts/?sh=f6eda011b03f">significant growth</a> across the globe and Australia is no exception. In cities with such offerings, users are able to get around in more convenient and flexible ways.</p>
<p>The recent emergence of dockless shared e-scooters (i.e. <a href="http://v1.li.me/locations/australia">Lime</a> and <a href="https://techau.com.au/neuron-mobility-is-launching-electric-scooters-in-adelaide-brisbane-darwin-canberra-and-townsville/">Neuron</a>) heralded a new-age of <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-bolster-our-fragile-road-and-rail-system-we-need-to-add-a-micro-mobility-network-124895">micromobility</a>. In Brisbane, it <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/brisbane-to-scrap-citycycle-scheme-as-rider-numbers-collapse-20201124-p56hfl.html">signalled the end</a> for the ten-year-old <a href="http://www.citycycle.com.au/">CityCycle</a> bike-share scheme.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/limes-not-lemons-lessons-from-australias-first-e-scooter-sharing-trial-108924">Limes not lemons: lessons from Australia’s first e-scooter sharing trial</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Not long after announcing CityCycle’s demise in late 2020, Brisbane City Council <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/things-to-see-and-do/outdoor-activities/riding-in-brisbane/citycycle-bike-hire">proposed</a> its replacement with shared dockless e-bikes and the topic <a href="https://www.racq.com.au/Live/Articles/241120-CityCycle-scrapped-in-favour-of-e-bikes-RACQ-approves">started</a> <a href="https://vickihoward.com/ebikescoming/">trending</a>. The question is: why will the e-bike scheme succeed where its predecessors in Brisbane and other Australian cities failed? (See below for a summary of the evolution of shared mobility schemes in Australia.)</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381314/original/file-20210129-23-1903dll.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Table showing previous, current and planned shared micromobility sharing services (as of Jan 2021)" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381314/original/file-20210129-23-1903dll.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381314/original/file-20210129-23-1903dll.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381314/original/file-20210129-23-1903dll.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381314/original/file-20210129-23-1903dll.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=616&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381314/original/file-20210129-23-1903dll.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381314/original/file-20210129-23-1903dll.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381314/original/file-20210129-23-1903dll.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Evolution of micromobility sharing services in major Australian cities.*</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Compiled by Dr Abraham Leung and Madison Bland, Griffith University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mobility is being offered more and more as a service. The uptake of share travel across Australian cities has undergone a transition from docked bikes to dockless e-mobility, aided largely by advances in technology and the proliferation of mobile devices. Sharing is being considered as an attractive alternative to owning a bike or car thanks to new ways to bundle mobility services into packages, in much the same way as we use entertainment streaming services instead of buying movies or records. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-subscribe-to-movies-and-music-why-not-transport-119538">We subscribe to movies and music, why not transport?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can we expect from e-bikes?</h2>
<p>E-bikes are pedal-assisted bicycles offering users electric motor assistance up to speeds of 25km/h. A shared bike scheme with self-locking and smartphone connectivity offers an extremely flexible riding experience. </p>
<p>It isn’t yet clear how e-bikes will be deployed in Brisbane. What we do know is the scheme will be privately operated under a short-term tender. As with CityCycle, <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/brisbane-to-scrap-citycycle-scheme-as-rider-numbers-collapse-20201124-p56hfl.html">2,000 bikes</a> will be provided across Brisbane, similar to how e-scooters are managed.</p>
<p>The e-bikes can improve on both e-scooters and CityCycle’s docked bikes in several ways. </p>
<p><strong>Trip flexibility:</strong> GPS tracking and smart lock technology remove the need to locate set docking stations. Users can start and end trips at places of their own choosing. This means they avoid the frustrations caused by docking stations reaching maximum capacity, especially in popular destinations such as the CBD.</p>
<p><strong>Wider appeal:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-e-scooters-solve-the-last-mile-problem-theyll-need-to-avoid-the-fate-of-dockless-bikes-102633">unlike e-scooters and their younger target market</a>, e-bikes can attract a wider demographic more familiar with riding bikes. They also offer greater load-carrying capacity and are permitted for use on roads whereas e-scooters are <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/council-wants-e-scooters-in-bike-lanes-to-protect-pedestrians-20200904-p55siq.html">restricted to footpaths or bikeways</a> in Brisbane. In New South Wales and Victoria, e-scooters are banned altogether - though <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/could-e-scooters-be-the-answer-to-impending-covid-19-gridlock-20201005-p56257.html">changes</a> could be on the way for Victoria.</p>
<p><strong>Assisted riding:</strong> electrically assisted bikes can make cycling easier and accessible for more people. For those who struggle to ride at the best of times, e-bikes can help overcome fitness issues, especially in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856415301531">Brisbane’s hot climate and hilly terrain</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-are-pouring-into-mobility-technology-will-the-transport-revolution-live-up-to-the-hype-131154">Billions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>So, what punctured CityCycle?</h2>
<p>CityCycle was launched in 2010 under a 20-year single-operator contract. The scheme failed to achieve ambitious patronage targets and the goal of paying for itself. Despite usage growing until 2018, a <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/citycycle-to-go-but-outdoor-advertising-designed-to-fund-bike-scheme-to-stay-20201124-p56hiv.html">shifting market</a> has since resulted in significant declines. </p>
<p>The reasons for the lack of use are clear: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>CityCycle was delivered through a monopolised model lacking market competition, with the shared bike scheme a secondary focus for operator JCDecaux Group’s advertising juggernaut, and this once-novel model became dated when dockless bikes emerged.</p></li>
<li><p>a cumbersome payment system made renting bikes difficult, with only smartcards accepted at first, and while uptake increased once credit card payments were introduced, e-scooters’ mobile-based payment options are more convenient for walk-up users.</p></li>
<li><p>the arrival of e-scooter schemes in 2018 attracted many CityCycle users, as the chart below shows (click to enlarge), and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic wrote off the scheme when the city became deserted during the lockdown.</p></li>
</ol>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380150/original/file-20210122-15-w07kna.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380150/original/file-20210122-15-w07kna.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380150/original/file-20210122-15-w07kna.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380150/original/file-20210122-15-w07kna.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380150/original/file-20210122-15-w07kna.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=317&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380150/original/file-20210122-15-w07kna.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380150/original/file-20210122-15-w07kna.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/380150/original/file-20210122-15-w07kna.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Patronage of Brisbane’s CityCycle scheme from 2010 to 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data: Brisbane City Council, JCDecaux. Adapted by Dr A. Leung</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-coronavirus-made-2020-the-year-of-the-electric-bike-143158">How coronavirus made 2020 the year of the electric bike</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The path to success</h2>
<p>As Brisbane moves towards a dockless e-bike scheme, its ability to outperform its predecessor will ultimately rest with decision-makers delivering a safe and convenient rider experience. This involves several key considerations.</p>
<p><strong>Pricing and payment:</strong> the scheme will have to be competitive with current modes (particularly e-scooters), where registration and payment are integrated with existing systems. The rise of <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">mobility as a service</a> (MaaS) platforms can incorporate the service within shared mobility apps and bundle offers (packaging public transport and shared mobility services).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">For Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Availability:</strong> the dockless model, while more flexible, will require operators to actively manage bike distribution and avoid cluttering. The blocking of access ways and even dumping of bikes have been sources of public opposition to other bike-share schemes. Though repositioning bikes (using service vehicles) will take up significant time and money, it is crucial in maintaining a balanced and orderly network that maximises bike availability.</p>
<p><strong>Initial launch:</strong> the scheme’s roll-out will be important, as positive perceptions are best achieved by people riding, rather than bikes sitting idle. Importantly, a winter launch should be avoided – <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/on-your-bike-public-hire-scheme-hits-cbd-20100531-wp4k.html">as Melbourne found</a> – when bike trips are at yearly lows.</p>
<p><strong>Cycle infrastructure:</strong> As with cycling in general, providing safe and connected bicycle networks is paramount for increasing participation rates. For Australian cities, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">historic lack of funding for cycle infrastructure</a> has limited ridership growth. Much work remains to be done, though Brisbane City Council has committed to <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-and-transport/roads-infrastructure-and-bikeways/bikeway-and-pathway-projects/citylink-cycleway-trial">trial improvements</a> to its CBD on-road bike lanes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Ultimately, dockless shared e-bikes can deliver a more flexible mobility option as operators maximise user convenience and governments develop urban cycling infrastructure.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>* The regulatory environment for micromobility is rapidly evolving. There are many <a href="https://www.ntc.gov.au/sites/default/files/assets/files/NTC-Decision-RIS-PMDs.pdf">nuances across Australian jurisdictions</a>, and users should check with their own state or territory for up-to-date road rules and regulations.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151844/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Madison Bland is affiliated with the Griffith Cities Research Institute where he is completing his PhD research in partnership with the City of Gold Coast. He is also an active member of PIA and PedBikeTrans industry groups</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abraham Leung is affiliated with the Griffith Cities Research Institute where his research is funded by the Queensland Department of Transport. He is also an active member of AITPM and PedBikeTrans industry groups.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Kaufman is affiliated with the Griffith Cities Research Institute where he is completing his PhD research in partnership with the Queensland Department of Transport. He is also an active member of AITPM and PedBikeTrans industry groups.</span></em></p>And the winner is … e-bikes? A new entrant is set to overtake Brisbane’s CityCycle scheme in the race for the shared mobility market.Madison Bland, PhD Candidate, Cities Research Institute, Griffith UniversityAbraham Leung, Transport Academic Partnership (TAP) Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Cities Research Institute, Griffith UniversityBenjamin Kaufman, PhD Candidate, Cities Research Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1507522020-11-26T19:02:43Z2020-11-26T19:02:43ZDelivery rider deaths highlight need to make streets safer for everyone<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/371401/original/file-20201125-23-ee8k8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=473%2C540%2C3014%2C2041&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mahathir Mohd Yasin/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Five food-delivery cyclists <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-24/uber-eats-vows-to-improve-safety-cyclist-killed-in-inner-sydney/12913840">have died</a> on Australian roads in the past three months, four in Sydney. Most commentary has focused on the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/food-delivery-riders-are-the-21st-century-s-chimney-sweeps-20201125-p56htn.html">harsh employment conditions</a> that force people to take risks they shouldn’t have to. These problems should of course be fixed, but cycling in general is too dangerous in our cities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-the-rise-in-cycling-injuries-and-deaths-in-australia-116660">Three Charts on the rise in cycling injuries and deaths in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We need to look not just at labour laws but at the laws that shape our streets: things like road rules, planning requirements and engineering standards. Food delivery is a compelling example because it shows cycling is the most efficient way to get around the city. </p>
<p>Despite the efforts of supposedly business-minded people like shock jock Alan Jones and New South Wales’ former roads minister, Duncan Gay (who infamously ripped up infrastructure including a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/aug/25/sydney-australia-bike-lane-skeptic-cycling-duncan-gay-cycleways">cycleway along College Road</a> in central Sydney and a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-11/government-tears-up-rainbow-crossing/4621896?nw=0">rainbow crossing</a> on Oxford Street in Surry Hills), businesses have worked out bikes are the best way to move around the city. </p>
<p>Bikes are fastest for distances <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.3141/2247-12?casa_token=6vELy3I6legAAAAA:vMzALMcRv95IJtv7HzstBi1F7BhRF_gbZoaFwCZNU9MQmigqh3MsgonjZKJQWLYMvgXLAlT2aZI">up to 5km</a>, even for beginners. For more experienced cyclists and during peak hour, bikes are faster for trips of 10km and often even more. </p>
<p>Cycling has wider benefits too. Swapping cars for bikes can reduce the tens of billions of dollars lost in traffic <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/cities/smart-cities/plan/index.aspx">congestion</a>, the many gigatonnes of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf">greenhouse gas emissions</a> and the health impacts of sedentary lifestyles. Even after accidents are taken into account, the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01441647.2015.1057877">health benefits</a> of cycling far outweigh the costs. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycle-walk-drive-or-train-weighing-up-the-healthiest-and-safest-ways-to-get-around-the-city-100238">Cycle, walk, drive or train? Weighing up the healthiest (and safest) ways to get around the city</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Cycling can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-cyclists-expanding-bike-lane-network-can-lead-to-more-inclusive-cities-144343">help to improve equity</a> and social inclusion, since the burdens of car-centric development are suffered most by people who are already vulnerable. They include the largely migrant food-delivery workforce. </p>
<p>Food-delivery cyclists are not the only people dying in car crashes. Worldwide, traffic accidents cause more than <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries">1.35 million deaths</a> every year and are the leading killer of children. </p>
<h2>Blaming the victims</h2>
<p>Instead of focusing on the dangers created by cars and trucks, however, NSW Transport and Roads Minister Andrew Constance this week <a href="https://www.2gb.com/minister-insists-premiers-critics-clutching-at-straws-over-accusations-of-health-rules-breach/">blamed the victim</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If people are riding around, particularly at night, they have an obligation to make sure they are wearing high-visibility jackets. They’ve obviously got to have the requisite lighting in terms of the bike. They themselves should obviously be putting protective and high-vis clothes on.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Before this week, news stories about food-delivery cyclists were mostly negative. Just last month, police announced a <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/sydney-police-crack-down-on-delivery-drivers-who-ride-bikes-on-footpaths/news-story/5c05fc45d6bdca54c607b31e48fae537">crackdown on delivery cyclists</a> riding on footpaths. </p>
<p>Fears about cyclists injuring pedestrians receive a lot of attention, yet car driving <a href="https://theconversation.com/road-safety-switch-to-cycling-to-keep-others-safe-131964">kills three times more people</a> per kilometre than cycling. The danger created by trucks is more than ten times greater per kilometre (and vastly greater overall). </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-bicycles-and-the-fatal-myth-of-equal-reciprocity-81034">Cars, bicycles and the fatal myth of equal reciprocity</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Rules give priority to cars</h2>
<p>Of course, we have all seen cyclists doing risky things. But the issue is less about individual behaviour and more about the regulatory environment. In Sydney and many other places, a plethora of state and federal rules and regulations give priority to cars in our cities. </p>
<p>Planning rules entrench the dominance of cars by <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-elephant-in-the-planning-scheme-how-cities-still-work-around-the-dominance-of-parking-space-87098">mandating the provision of car parking</a> (despite its significant <a href="https://vtpi.org/park-hou.pdf">impact on housing affordability</a>). Engineering standards support high-speed travel. </p>
<p>Road rules and policing practices also enforce the dominance of cars on streets. An example is penalising pedestrians who step onto or cross the road within 20 metres of a zebra crossing. In contrast, sanctions for dangerous driving are weak and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/furious-cyclists-demand-police-focus-on-dangerous-drivers-not-helmets-20180426-p4zbte.html">poorly enforced</a>, and cycling is <a href="https://www.amygillett.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/AGF-Submission-to-NSW-Staysafe-Committee-Inquiry-into-Driver-Education-Training-and-Road-Safety-200217.pdf">left out of driver education</a>.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure is a problem too</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">Lopsided budget allocations</a> and infrastructure make the situation worse. Even projects supposedly aimed at pedestrians and cyclists often benefit cars far more. An example is overpasses that increase walking and cycling distances, while giving cars a smooth, lights-free ride. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">Cycling and walking can help drive Australia's recovery – but not with less than 2% of transport budgets</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The challenge is particularly acute in older areas, where streets were not designed for high car use. Calls for bike lanes, widened footpaths and other infrastructure for pedestrians and cyclists are often refused on the grounds of lack of space. But why do cars get what little space there is? </p>
<p>The site of Sunday’s death is a clear example. The intersection where the cyclist was killed by an excavator-carrying truck is not a highway but a relatively narrow street with houses and a school. Should large trucks really be driving on streets like this? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374">Physical distancing is here for a while – over 100 experts call for more safe walking and cycling space</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Law reform is overdue</h2>
<p>Internationally, there is a growing recognition that legal reform is needed to improve safety, and in turn to achieve both individual and national benefits. The <a href="https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/sustainable-safety/">Dutch approach</a> has long been celebrated, both for the high quality of cycling infrastructure and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-overwhelmingly-cause-bike-collisions-and-the-law-should-reflect-that-78922">high level of liability for car drivers</a>. The Swedish <a href="https://visionzeronetwork.org/">Vision Zero</a> has also been influential, with cities around the world introducing laws and policies to eliminate deaths in traffic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-overwhelmingly-cause-bike-collisions-and-the-law-should-reflect-that-78922">Cars overwhelmingly cause bike collisions, and the law should reflect that</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Even in the US, where car culture is deeply entrenched, many cities are adopting <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ad9018bf93fd4ad7295ba8f/t/5f1f030c0cf14f38fa318020/1595867918978/CityHealth_Complete+Streets+Report.pdf">complete streets</a> legislation. These laws require streets to be planned, designed, operated and maintained to enable safe, convenient and comfortable access for users of all ages and abilities, regardless of their transport mode. </p>
<p>In Australia, councils like the <a href="https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/cycling">City of Sydney</a> are taking very positive actions to support cycling, but this alone is not enough. To save the lives of delivery riders – and everyone else – we need legal reforms at the state and federal levels.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150752/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amelia Thorpe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Delivery riders are paying the ultimate price for the fact that our cities, their infrastructure and the rules governing them make cycling much more dangerous than it should be.Amelia Thorpe, Associate Professor in Law, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1506442020-11-25T19:04:31Z2020-11-25T19:04:31ZThink taxing electric vehicle use is a backward step? Here’s why it’s an important policy advance<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-11/sa-to-introduce-electric-vehicle-user-charge/12869302">South Australian</a> and <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/victoria-to-tax-electric-and-plug-in-hybrid-vehicles-from-2021-124619.html?trackLink=SMH1">Victorian</a> governments have announced, and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/motoring-news/electric-car-tax-spreads-to-new-states/news-story/172ac67ccd8974566e3c65dc26c07048">New South Wales</a> is considering, road user charges on electric vehicles. This policy has drawn scorn from <a href="https://nb.tai.org.au/no_ev_tax?recruiter_id=194711">environmental advocates</a> and <a href="https://thedriven.io/2020/11/21/shameful-victoria-follows-south-australia-and-imposes-electric-car-road-tax/">motor vehicle lobbyists</a> who fear it will slow the uptake of less-polluting vehicles. But, from a longer-term transport policy perspective, a distance-based road user charge on electric vehicles is an important step forward.</p>
<p>Superficially, a charge on electric vehicle use seems misguided. Road sector emissions are the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/107/8/3382">worst contributors to climate change</a>. Electric vehicles powered by clean energy offer the promise of near-zero emissions. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905">Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As electric vehicle and renewable energy costs decline we can expect a shift to <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/Inputs-Assumptions-Methodologies/2020/CSIRO-DER-Forecast-Report">full electrification of urban vehicles over the next 30 years</a>. Surely accelerating this transition is an urgent climate task?</p>
<p>The downside lies not in the carbon benefits of these vehicles, but in their use as private passenger transport in congested urban areas and <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-new-pm-wants-to-bust-congestion-here-are-four-ways-he-could-do-that-102249">the costs</a> this use imposes on cities. As renewable energy becomes cheaper, the marginal cost of every kilometre driven is likely to decline. As driving becomes cheaper, more of it is likely to occur.</p>
<p>More driving means more congestion. Inevitably, that increases demand for increasingly expensive road projects, such as Sydney’s WestConnex, or Melbourne’s Westgate Tunnel and North East Link. It certainly will run against the recognition in urban plans such as <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/">Plan Melbourne</a> that we must shift to alternative transport modes.</p>
<p>If we don’t have a pricing regime that accounts for the cost of car use in cities, the transition to electric vehicles is likely to work against the wider goals of urban and transport policy. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">Cars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How would distance-based charging work?</h2>
<p>Many urban transport policy advocates have called for distance-based road-user charging to be imposed on all vehicles in cities. This sounds great in theory, but in practice is difficult for technical and political reasons of privacy and surveillance. Such concerns will diminish over time as cars increasingly incorporate automated <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telematics">telematics</a> that necessarily track their movement.</p>
<p>Distance-based road-user charging efficiently matches road use to its costs – of infrastructure, congestion, noise, pollution and deaths. It improves on fuel excise, which drivers can nearly completely evade by using a highly efficient vehicle. It also goes beyond tolling to fund major roads, which typically apply only to specific links.</p>
<p>Second, road-user charging can be varied in response to demand that exceeds road capacities. Higher rates can be applied at peak times to ensure free-flowing traffic and shift travel to other times and modes. Various taxation reviews, including the 2009 <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/afts_final_report_part_2_vol_2_consolidated.pdf">Henry Taxation Review</a> and <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/productivity-review/report/productivity-review-supporting9.pdf">Productivity Commission</a> reports, have promoted such policies.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027">Road user charging belongs on the political agenda as the best answer for congestion management</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Exactly how big would the disincentive be?</h2>
<p>Would imposing such charges on electric vehicles retard their uptake? </p>
<p>Based on our work with <a href="https://www-sciencedirect-com.ezproxy.lib.rmit.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0966692320309443?utm_campaign=elsOnboarding_Published&utm_medium=email&utm_dgroup=STMJ_AUTH_SERV_PUBLISHED&utm_acid=79567271&SIS_ID=&dgcid=elsOnboarding_Published&CMX_ID=&utm_in=DM82577&utm_source=AC_">ABS Census journey-to-work data</a>, in Melbourne the average daily round-trip commuting distance by car is about 25 kilometres. The proposed Victorian charge is 2.5 cents per kilometre. Thus, in Melbourne the average daily commuter’s road user charge is likely to be 63 cents – $3.13 for a typical five-day working week. Over a 48-week working year that totals A$150, hardly a large sum for most people.</p>
<p>By comparison, a commuter in a conventional vehicle with the average current fuel efficiency of 10.9 L/100km will use about 2.73 litres of fuel on which they pay 42.3 cents per litre in fuel excise. That’s about $1.15 a day, or $5.75 a week. </p>
<p>The average tax saving for electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles will be about 2.1 cents per kilometre. Electric vehicle drivers will be taxed about 53 cents a day, or $2.64 a week, less for their car work travel. They’ll be about $126 a year better off.</p>
<p>Commuting trips make up about 25% of car use, so electric car users’ overall savings are likely to be even greater. </p>
<p>It is difficult to see how such savings on excise tax are a <em>disincentive</em> to electric vehicle uptake. Fears of a “<a href="https://medium.com/@TheAustraliaInstitute/11-reasons-why-a-great-big-new-tax-on-electric-vehicles-is-a-bad-idea-6bf89c99e688">great big new tax</a>”, as the Australia Institute puts it, seem unfounded, as are concerns that road-user charges would “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2020/nov/22/tax-on-electric-vehicles-in-south-australia-and-victoria-would-slam-brakes-on-sales">slam the brakes on sales</a>”.</p>
<p>Let’s be clear, the big barrier is the <em>upfront cost</em> of electric vehicles, about <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/transport/projects/electricvehicles/about/compare">$10,000 more</a> than their conventional equivalents. Advocates for electric vehicles should focus on that difference, and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/22/well-be-left-behind-australias-electric-car-inertia-is-getting-it-nowhere">failures in Australian government policy</a>, not state road-user charges. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-tripled-last-year-heres-what-we-can-do-to-keep-them-growing-131372">Electric car sales tripled last year. Here's what we can do to keep them growing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why taxing actual road use matters</h2>
<p>It needs to be recognised that, with lower marginal costs, electric vehicles are likely to be used more than conventional cars. That would increase pressure on urban road capacity. So while the new road-user charge of 2.5 cents per kilometre is flat across the time of day or the route driven, this will likely need to change.</p>
<p>Distance-based road-user charges have been politically controversial. Imposing a tiny charge on a <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-car-sales-tripled-last-year-heres-what-we-can-do-to-keep-them-growing-131372">minority vehicle type</a> is an expedient way of introducing a needed reform. Fewer than <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/motor-vehicle-census-australia/latest-release">1.8%</a> of vehicles in Australia are currently electric or hybrid. But as all cars become electric, distance-based road charges will become an increasingly powerful policy tool. </p>
<p>Thanks to advancing telematics, transport planners will eventually be able to impose variable road-user charging by time of day and route, similar to ride-hailing companies’ “surge” pricing. We could then apply novel approaches such as a cap-and-trade system. A city could allocate its motorists an annual kilometres quota, which is then traded to create a market for excess urban road use. </p>
<p>The private car could also be integrated into <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">mobility-as-a-service</a> models. </p>
<p>Road-user charges could be regressive for people with few alternatives to the car. But telematic tracking could allow for lower charges for less affluent households in dispersed outer suburbs with few other options.</p>
<p>Beyond fuel, private cars have high environmental costs in <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/green-guide/buying-guides/car/environmental-impact/">steel, plastic, aluminium, glass and rubber use</a>. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-elephant-in-the-planning-scheme-how-cities-still-work-around-the-dominance-of-parking-space-87098">about one-third of our increasingly valuable urban space</a> is given over to cars in the form of roads and parking. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/freeing-up-the-huge-areas-set-aside-for-parking-can-transform-our-cities-85331">Freeing up the huge areas set aside for parking can transform our cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To reduce this demand on resources and space, car use could be priced to shift travel to, and fund, more sustainable and city-friendly modes such as public transport, walking and cycling. We could even price the car out of cities completely. The most environmentally sustainable car, after all, is no car at all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from AHURI and the Department of Environment to support Jago Dodson's research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from AHURI and the Department of Environment to support Terry Li's research.</span></em></p>Electric vehicles would lower emissions, but if their lower running costs lead to increased car use that creates a whole lot of other costs for our cities.Jago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityTiebei (Terry) Li, Research Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1489262020-11-15T18:52:14Z2020-11-15T18:52:14ZCOVID shows working from home the best way to beat congestion<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368951/original/file-20201111-19-ma041d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C36%2C6016%2C3971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/car-jamming-traffic-jam-1109250887">249 Anurak/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As almost anyone who wastes countless hours stuck in traffic would agree, there’s little more frustrating for workers than starting or ending the day with an overly long commute. But, while we might not like it, more of us are doing it. In 2019, the average daily commute time for Australian metro workers was <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">66 minutes</a>. Then COVID happened.</p>
<p>Although the pandemic has forced change without choice on almost all of us, there have been some positive unintended consequences. Commuting times are one winner, particularly in larger cities. The increase in working from home turns out to be the best policy lever the transport sector has ever pulled for reducing traffic congestion in our cities. </p>
<iframe title="How avoiding the commute is making us happier" height="122" width="100%" style="border: none;" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/74h3d-f25c07?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=1&pfauth=&btn-skin=107"></iframe>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">Australian city workers' average commute has blown out to 66 minutes a day. How does yours compare?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We began looking at the impacts of the increase in working from home on our roads and public transport from March to September. We found a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.08.004">10-15% drop in peak-period congestion</a>. That’s similar to traffic during school holidays. </p>
<iframe title="Profile of work days and working from home by state" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-AJyqT" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AJyqT/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<iframe title="Profile of work days and working from home by occupation" aria-label="chart" id="datawrapper-chart-1TxZe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1TxZe/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>COVID-19, it turns out, has done something that nobody in government has been able to achieve – cutting road congestion almost overnight. </p>
<h2>For commuters, time is money</h2>
<p>It’s possible to <a href="https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/handle/2123/15314/VTTScar%20Ho%20Mulley%20Shiftan%20Hensher%2028%20Jan%202016.pdf;jsessionid=3A5FEA2C6F7698B4A2FA63FCE2FA5E5B?sequence=2">calculate how much these kinds of shifts are worth</a> to us as a society. If we weren’t stuck in traffic, what else might we do with that time? And just how much is it worth to us? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Women looking at watch while stuck in traffic" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368952/original/file-20201111-21-2bxzmp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All that time spent stuck in traffic has a cost.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Syda Productions/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Greater Sydney metropolitan area, covering Newcastle to Wollongong, is a good example. From late May 2020, commuting times declined as working from home boomed. We calculate this cut total commuting time costs by 54%, from A$10.5 billion a year to A$5.58 billion. </p>
<p>Naturally, commuters want to know the impact on their own metaphorical hip pockets. In Greater Sydney, we calculate the average annual reduction in time costs per car commuter was A$2,312 as at May 2020. That’s equivalent to A$48.16 per week, or A$9.63 per weekday. </p>
<p>For the public transport commuter, the “time cost” of being stuck in traffic is higher as their commute is often longer. Their time saving is worth A$5,203 per person, an equivalent of A$108.39 per week or A$21.68 per weekday. </p>
<p>It’s all money that could be better spent elsewhere, especially in the current economic environment. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing percentage of work days working from home by occupation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368948/original/file-20201111-16-gcsivk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Transport planning priorities will change</h2>
<p>Congestion shows us working from home is changing more than the workplace: it could have profound implications for road investment and transport policy. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.07.00">Our data</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.08.004">show</a> the increase in working from home is spread evenly across the five weekdays. This is important, since infrastructure and service capacity are typically determined by peak demand. If demand can be flattened, as the data suggest it can be, then the implications for transport planning priorities will be significant.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-more-of-us-work-from-home-after-coronavirus-well-need-to-rethink-city-planning-136261">If more of us work from home after coronavirus we'll need to rethink city planning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Of course, now that full-time working from home is easing for many, we don’t expect this level of benefit to be sustained. But we believe we’ll still be left with a significant improvement on pre-COVID congestion. Early signs, including from our surveys in September, suggest many people in certain occupations are <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-management-resistance-overcome-working-from-home-may-be-here-to-stay-144850">likely to work from home</a> one to two days a week in the future, with full employer support.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing percentage of work days working from home by occupation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/368947/original/file-20201111-22-1j9g4ca.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But to really capture the benefits of this welcome shift on our roads, we need governments to play a role. They need to publicly support working from home as a way of reducing pressure on transport networks, especially in our big cities. </p>
<p>2020 has proven traffic congestion can be reduced without building more roads. What’s more, doing so brings other benefits: in addition to myriad environmental benefits, our increased ability to work from home will open up new opportunities for revitalising suburbia. These adjustments align well with the concept of the 20- or 30-minute city, a strategy many Australian city planners are grappling with.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-love-the-idea-of-20-minute-neighbourhoods-so-why-isnt-it-top-of-the-agenda-131193">People love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn't it top of the agenda?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Is there a downside to fewer commutes?</h2>
<p>As more of us spend fewer days commuting, there are risks. For example, we might move more permanently to using private cars for commuting (even once COVID safety issues subside). </p>
<p>If we commute for only three or four days a week, rather than five, we may be more tolerant of the costs associated with driving, such as parking fees and tolls. Even congestion itself may bother us less. </p>
<p>If this occurs, we may have to find other ways to contain this increase in car use if we want to keep those shorter commutes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">Cars rule as coronavirus shakes up travel trends in our cities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Strategies to limit car use in peak periods</h2>
<p>One option is road-pricing reform – a user-pays system. One <a href="https://imovecrc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Bibliography-Tackling-road-congestion-David-A-Hensher.pdf">well-researched</a> user charge is to replace vehicle registration charges (in part or in full) with a distance-based charge (cents/km) during periods of heavy congestion – for example, peak periods in cities. </p>
<p>What makes this option appealing is the ability to set charges at a level that leaves most people no worse off financially (the hip-pocket test), while at the same time reducing peak-period car use to improve travel times. We <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9473-6">estimate</a> 5-7c/km would be the right price. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-why-congestion-charging-is-fairer-than-you-might-think-124894">Three charts on: why congestion charging is fairer than you might think</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9473-6">Surveys show</a> over 70% of commuters could switch to other times of the day and still use their cars if keen to avoid the distance-based charge. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11116-013-9473-6">Our modelling</a> suggests this would deliver an 8% improvement in travel times. That’s equivalent to school holiday periods and the shift we’ve seen from the increase in working from home. </p>
<p>It is likely this shift would only increase in a world where working from home means people can work more flexibly.</p>
<p>An alternative strategy to keep congestion low, even if our love for private car travel increases, centres on incentives – rewards similar to those used by supermarkets or airlines. </p>
<p>Why not create incentives like loyalty points for drivers willing to switch to off-peak car use or to public transport? Drivers’ decisions could be tracked via GPS, and resulting reward points converted to cash payments or discounts on travel and other non-transport-related purchases.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-recovery-public-transport-is-key-to-avoid-repeating-old-and-unsustainable-mistakes-138415">Coronavirus recovery: public transport is key to avoid repeating old and unsustainable mistakes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qDNDox3oPhU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Travel post-COVID-19: alternative views from leading academics.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/aUr3Y5E0x4w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Travel post-COVID-19: Q&A session.</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148926/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hensher receives funding from ARC and CRC (iMOVE).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Beck receives funding from CRC iMove.</span></em></p>COVID led to commuting time savings worth over $2,000 a year for each driver and $5,000 per public transport user. But as workplaces reopen, we may need road user charges to keep traffic flowing.David Hensher, Director, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of SydneyMatthew Beck, Associate Professor in Infrastructure Management, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1491492020-11-08T19:04:42Z2020-11-08T19:04:42Z$34bn and counting – beware cost overruns in an era of megaprojects<p>A <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/the-rise-of-megaprojects-counting-the-costs">Grattan Institute report</a> released today finds Australian governments spent A$34 billion, or 21%, more on transport projects completed since 2001 than they first told taxpayers they would. And as we enter the era of megaprojects in Australia, costs continue to blow out.</p>
<p>Transport projects worth A$5 billion or more in today’s money were almost unheard of ten years ago. Today, as the chart below shows, megaprojects make up the bulk of the work under way across the country. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366955/original/file-20201102-13-1r53xu3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These megaprojects include <a href="https://www.westconnex.com.au/">WestConnex</a> in Sydney, <a href="https://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/">West Gate Tunnel</a> in Melbourne and <a href="https://crossriverrail.qld.gov.au/">Cross River Rail</a> in Brisbane. And this is to say nothing of some enormous projects being planned, such as Melbourne’s <a href="https://suburbanrailloop.vic.gov.au/en">Suburban Rail Loop</a>.</p>
<p>We are also hearing calls to add to this bulging pipeline. In June, the transport and infrastructure ministers of all states and territories <a href="https://www.transportinfrastructurecouncil.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/13th-transport-and-infrastructure-council-communique.pdf">said</a> they were “clearing the way for an infrastructure-led recovery” from the COVID-19 recession.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-may-live-to-regret-open-slather-construction-stimulus-139967">We may live to regret open-slather construction stimulus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Cost overrun risks rise with project size</h2>
<p>The Grattan report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/the-rise-of-megaprojects-counting-the-costs">The rise of megaprojects: counting the costs</a>, sounds a warning about the risks of this approach. The report uses the <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/economics/solutions/investment-monitor.html">Deloitte Access Economics Investment Monitor</a> to look at the final cost of all public road and rail projects worth A$20 million or more and completed since 2001. As the chart below shows, we found bigger projects overran their initial cost estimates more often and by more. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366959/original/file-20201102-15-1jq716y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Almost half of the projects with an initial price tag of more than A$1 billion in today’s money had a cost overrun. These projects overran their initial costs by 30% on average. The extra amount spent on some megaprojects was the size of a megaproject itself.</p>
<p>Cost announcements before governments were prepared to commit formally to a project were particularly risky. Only one-third of projects had costs announced prematurely, but these accounted for more than three-quarters of the A$34 billion overrun.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/missing-evidence-base-for-big-calls-on-infrastructure-costs-us-all-99080">Missing evidence base for big calls on infrastructure costs us all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When early costings of infrastructure turn out to be too low, it distorts investment planning in three ways:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>underestimating the costs of transport infrastructure can lead to over-investing in it relative to other spending priorities</p></li>
<li><p>if governments misunderstand the uncertainty in a project’s cost at the time they commit to it, their decision to invest in that project was made on an incorrect basis</p></li>
<li><p>because unrealistic cost estimates are more prevalent for larger projects, governments are more likely to over-invest in larger projects. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>There’s also a fourth and no less important problem: when unrealistically low cost estimates are announced, the public is misled.</p>
<p>Despite the experience of the past 20 years, the costs of big projects continue to be underestimated. The chart below shows A$24 billion more than first expected will be spent on just six <em>mega</em> megaprojects (that is, projects with an initial cost estimate of A$5 billion or more) now under construction. Overruns on other megaprojects have been <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/deal-cut-on-metro-tunnel-s-blowout-billions-after-government-cave-in-20201015-p565a5.html">reported</a> too.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/367692/original/file-20201105-17-1h1q8ne.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-promises-for-election-2019-the-good-the-bad-and-the-downright-ugly-115138">Transport promises for election 2019: the good, the bad and the downright ugly</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What needs to be done?</h2>
<p>With megaproject costs continuing to blow out, governments should take immediate steps to manage better the portfolio of work under way — particularly if they are looking to add to it in the name of economic stimulus. </p>
<p>Each state’s auditor-general should conduct a stocktake of current projects. This would give the public and the government a clear picture of the situation. </p>
<p>Ministers should begin reporting to parliament on a continuous disclosure basis. Any material changes in expected costs, benefits or completion dates of very large projects should be disclosed.</p>
<p>Steps should be taken to put decisions on the incoming batch of projects on a sounder basis, too. When announcing a cost, ministers and government agencies should disclose how advanced the estimate is. If the proposal is at an early stage, they should quote a range of estimates. </p>
<p>Governments should also require their infrastructure advisory bodies to at least assess — if not approve — large proposals before funding is committed.</p>
<p>Looking further ahead, action is needed to stop the pattern of spending billions more than expected on megaprojects. State departments of transport and infrastructure should devote more resources to identifying modest-sized transport infrastructure proposals. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pm-wants-to-fast-track-mega-projects-for-pandemic-recovery-heres-why-thats-a-bad-idea-136838">The PM wants to fast-track mega-projects for pandemic recovery. Here's why that’s a bad idea</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>And governments need to start learning from the past. Detailed project data, particularly on expected and actual costs, should be centrally collated in each state. </p>
<p>Post-completion reviews should be mandatory on all large projects. These reviews should be published.</p>
<p>If there is no change in the way infrastructure is conceived and delivered in Australia, then the era of the megaproject will indeed mean megaproblems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>A review of all public road and rail projects worth $20 million or more and completed since 2001 reveals a 21% cost overrun. Worryingly, costs of bigger projects blew out more often and by more.Greg Moran, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1448022020-10-11T18:58:47Z2020-10-11T18:58:47ZCOVID impacts demand a change of plan: funding a shift from commuting to living locally<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362370/original/file-20201008-22-3fh8sy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4496%2C2993&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Conventional transport infrastructure planning has been based on wholesale commuting to and from the city centre.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-central-train-station-many-railways-1078334270">Taras Vyshnya/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Long-term planning has delivered mass transit systems to cater for high-patronage, hub-and-spoke transport systems. Unfortunately, this has left many city residents <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-08/Australian%20Infrastructure%20Audit%202019%20-%205.%20Transport.pdf">without basic access to public transport services</a>. And we could never have planned for the impacts of COVID-19. </p>
<p>Our previous plans were based on the best available data at the time. Today, these plans must be critically reviewed using new data that properly represent the world and our transport needs as they are now.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-more-of-us-work-from-home-after-coronavirus-well-need-to-rethink-city-planning-136261">If more of us work from home after coronavirus we'll need to rethink city planning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Important facts to keep in mind</h2>
<p><strong>1: Fewer people commute to work.</strong></p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-spark-a-revolution-in-working-from-home-are-we-ready-133070">work-from-home transition</a> is well under way. Our current transport networks (except for <a href="https://covid19.apple.com/mobility">roads</a>, which have rebounded to traffic equal to or above pre-pandemic levels in some cities) are operating far below previous levels, even allowing for social distancing. This may not be the best time to break ground on major infrastructure projects planned under previous assumptions of population and demand growth.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-management-resistance-overcome-working-from-home-may-be-here-to-stay-144850">With management resistance overcome, working from home may be here to stay</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>2: Disadvantaged populations lack access to opportunities.</strong></p>
<p>Public transport is key to enabling everyone in a population to be a productive member of society. Many disadvantaged groups cannot drive or afford car ownership. However, they also <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/outer-urban-public-transport-improving-accessibility-lower-density-areas">lack access to public transport</a>, particularly in the outer suburbs.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, coronavirus impacts will <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-coronavirus-will-deepen-the-inequality-of-our-suburbs-143432">hit the disadvantaged the hardest</a>. If we want everyone to be able to participate in the economic recovery, we need to promote basic levels of access regardless of an individual’s circumstance. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-coronavirus-will-deepen-the-inequality-of-our-suburbs-143432">Why coronavirus will deepen the inequality of our suburbs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>3: Population growth will not meet projections.</strong></p>
<p>Migration bans will greatly reduce short-term growth. Current projections show a population <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-4-million-less-than-projected-how-coronavirus-could-hit-australias-population-in-the-next-20-years-143544">up to 4% smaller in 2040</a> than it would have been in a non-COVID world. This will further decrease demand for urban transit services as well as demand across many sectors of our society. These trends are important because much of our planning is based around these population growth metrics.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-4-million-less-than-projected-how-coronavirus-could-hit-australias-population-in-the-next-20-years-143544">1.4 million less than projected: how coronavirus could hit Australia's population in the next 20 years</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, our suburbs still lack basic public transport services. If we want to increase patronage, we need to bring services to more people by improving coverage of our <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-need-to-give-up-on-crowded-cities-we-can-make-density-so-much-better-131304">sprawling, low-density cities</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/outer-urban-public-transport-improving-accessibility-lower-density-areas">Over 80% of the population</a> of our biggest cities live in the outer and middle suburbs, yet this massive majority have limited to no basic public transport service. Across our five largest cities, Infrastructure Australia <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/outer-urban-public-transport-improving-accessibility-lower-density-areas">reports</a>, “public transport disadvantage in outer suburbs is significant”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Populations living in inner, middle and outer suburbs of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353993/original/file-20200821-18-1ctpvl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353993/original/file-20200821-18-1ctpvl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353993/original/file-20200821-18-1ctpvl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353993/original/file-20200821-18-1ctpvl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353993/original/file-20200821-18-1ctpvl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353993/original/file-20200821-18-1ctpvl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353993/original/file-20200821-18-1ctpvl6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Estimated resident population by suburban classification, as count and proportion of city population.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/outer-urban-public-transport-improving-accessibility-lower-density-areas">Infrastructure Australia: Outer Urban Public Transport: Improving accessibility in lower-density areas</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Households’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/rapid-growth-is-widening-melbournes-social-and-economic-divide-117244">access to jobs and services gets much worse</a> with increasing distance from the city centre. Development of suburban and regional <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) offerings</a> could promote better access in these “harder to serve” areas.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">For Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Moving the country forward</h2>
<p>Job creation will be an important aspect of economic recovery. Yet too often we look to large construction projects as the answer. There is plenty of other job-creating work to be done in our communities. </p>
<p>We could, for example, increase the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">miserly funding</a> for our piecemeal walking and cycling networks. </p>
<p>We could also <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-million-rides-and-counting-on-demand-services-bring-public-transport-to-the-suburbs-132355">expand on-demand services</a> to suburban and rural residents who lack basic public transport access. On-demand transit does not follow fixed routes or timetables. Riders book a trip for a cost similar to a bus fare. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Passenger waiting to board a Bridj on-demand bus service." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362371/original/file-20201008-14-1j0ilu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362371/original/file-20201008-14-1j0ilu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362371/original/file-20201008-14-1j0ilu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362371/original/file-20201008-14-1j0ilu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362371/original/file-20201008-14-1j0ilu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362371/original/file-20201008-14-1j0ilu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362371/original/file-20201008-14-1j0ilu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bridj is one of the operators that is expanding on-demand services in Sydney and other cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/TakeBridj/photos/a.1412498639012150/2080642258864448/">Bridj Transit Systems/Facebook</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/1-million-rides-and-counting-on-demand-services-bring-public-transport-to-the-suburbs-132355">1 million rides and counting: on-demand services bring public transport to the suburbs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These options will <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-the-sums-bicycle-friendly-changes-are-good-business-58213">encourage local spending to support small businesses</a>. These are an important piece of our social fabric and improve <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-reminds-us-how-liveable-neighbourhoods-matter-for-our-well-being-135806">livability in our communities</a>. </p>
<h2>We need to look locally</h2>
<p>A focus on localised investment in the many neglected communities across the country will deliver major benefits. Money already committed to large projects that are under way represents sunk costs that may be too deep to renegotiate. However, future plans using public funds must be re-examined. </p>
<p>Investments should target disadvantaged groups and broaden access to transport networks, encouraging new potential users. For many, assistance in gaining access to the necessities of life will be invaluable during the coming economic recovery. Guaranteed access to groceries, medical services, work opportunities and <a href="https://theconversation.com/parks-and-green-spaces-are-important-for-our-mental-health-but-we-need-to-make-sure-that-everyone-can-benefit-142322">recreational activities</a> must not be reserved for the elite.</p>
<p>We need better localised public transport and we need it for the majority of citizens, not just those who live in the inner suburbs of our capital cities. Most regional populations lack even rudimentary public transport coverage at reasonable frequency. </p>
<p>Increasing services in these areas will create valuable jobs that will stick around, unlike large one-off construction projects. The money will stay local, going into the pockets of operators who live and work in their own community. </p>
<p>While our long-term planning is not to blame for our current situation, we need to develop for the future, not the past. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/westconnex-audit-offers-another-17b-lesson-in-how-not-to-fund-infrastructure-73206">financial costs</a> of building and maintaining our current infrastructure are not going away. However, we can no longer refuse to invest in many of our underserved communities. </p>
<p>It is time to ensure everyone, regardless of their income or where they grow up, has the basic services they need to be a productive member of society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144802/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Kaufman receives funding from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads. He is also a member of the PedBikeTrans and AITPM industry associations and is completing his PhD research at the Griffith Cities Research Institute.</span></em></p>Coronavirus has changed population projections and behaviours across society. With fewer commuters we need to shift transport planning based on a hub-and-spoke network to focus on more local travel.Benjamin Kaufman, PhD Candidate, Cities Research Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1442832020-08-27T20:10:54Z2020-08-27T20:10:54ZWhat Australia can learn from bicycle-friendly cities overseas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353804/original/file-20200820-18-1t7sf8x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C261%2C1586%2C899&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ursa Komac</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Walking and cycling are in the spotlight given the need to keep fit, get about and keep a social distance from others during the pandemic.</p>
<p>We have <a href="https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/vision/better-infrastructure/streets-and-public-places/current-works/pop-up-cycleways">pop-up cycleways</a>, <a href="https://7news.com.au/news/nsw/taxpayers-in-nsw-to-fund-15-million-program-for-footpaths-amid-covid-19-pandemic-c-1026351">enlarged footpaths</a> and even whole streets <a href="https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/council/your-say/notice-temporary-closure-george-street-bathurst-street-rawson-place">closed to traffic</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/physical-distancing-is-here-for-a-while-over-100-experts-call-for-more-safe-walking-and-cycling-space-137374">Physical distancing is here for a while – over 100 experts call for more safe walking and cycling space</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But even if the new cycleways stay in place after the COVID-19 crisis, we’ll still be far from being as bicycle-friendly as <a href="https://www.visitcopenhagen.com/copenhagen/activities/what-makes-copenhagen-worlds-most-bicycle-friendly-city">Copenhagen</a> or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/05/amsterdam-bicycle-capital-world-transport-cycling-kindermoord">Amsterdam</a>, over in Europe.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353805/original/file-20200820-22-dzbmnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Several people on bicycles in Amsterdam." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353805/original/file-20200820-22-dzbmnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353805/original/file-20200820-22-dzbmnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353805/original/file-20200820-22-dzbmnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353805/original/file-20200820-22-dzbmnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353805/original/file-20200820-22-dzbmnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353805/original/file-20200820-22-dzbmnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353805/original/file-20200820-22-dzbmnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plenty of people get around Amsterdam on bicycles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/16nine/3548300458/">Mikael Colville Andersen/Flickr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>CBDs and city suburbs</h2>
<p>The reason lies in how Australian cities are shaped and how they work. Copenhagen is a compact city, so most trips are relatively short, an <a href="http://www.cycling-embassy.dk/facts-about-cycling-in-denmark/statistics/">average 3km a day</a>. People can walk or cycle all the way to work, to the shops, to school or to a restaurant. </p>
<p>Any attempt to emulate Copenhagen’s active transport modes in Australia is only really a feasible option for our CBDs and inner-city suburbs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">Cycling and walking are short-changed when it comes to transport funding in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For the rest we already have some cycleways mostly following transport corridors. Sometimes these are literally a bicycle lane on the <a href="https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/roads/safety-rules/road-rules/motorways.html">shoulder of the motorway</a>.</p>
<p>There are some people who use those, but even the most committed of cyclists would think twice before a 20km one-way commute under a scorching sun or in heavy rain.</p>
<h2>Go the ‘first mile’</h2>
<p>Only if cycling becomes an option for almost everyone, any day, can it truly make a difference.</p>
<p>That is, for most of us cycling cannot be an alternative, but a complement, to public transport. Cycling has the potential to solve what is often referred to as the “first mile” problem, the challenge of getting people to a public transport hub.</p>
<p>For people who live up to 1km away from a railway station, they should have a comfortable walk.</p>
<p>Many more, living up to 3km away, could benefit from cycling. They could ride to the station, leave their bike securely parked, and catch a train to their final destination.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/walking-and-cycling-to-work-makes-commuters-happier-and-more-productive-117819">Walking and cycling to work makes commuters happier and more productive</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Access derailed</h2>
<p>But the way things are, cycling or walking to the station can be a dangerous ordeal, or at least rather unpleasant, for most of us.</p>
<p>Footpaths may disappear on one or both sides of the road, pedestrian crossings may be scarce, heavy traffic on arterial roads creates toxic fumes and noise, and the lack of trees greatly reduces amenity.</p>
<p>If you do not see other people walking or cycling, then even a short trip can be unsettling or feel unsafe.</p>
<p>The conditions can be worse for cyclists, who may have no options other than to ride illegally on the narrow footpath or risk it on the road.</p>
<h2>Turning Japanese</h2>
<p>Improving active transport access to suburban stations is a low-cost endeavour with many benefits. First of all, we need to look at examples that work and find out why, then adapt them to our needs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">Cycling and walking can help drive Australia's recovery – but not with less than 2% of transport budgets</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We believe the best examples applicable to suburban Australia are not just in great European cycling cities but include the humble <a href="https://www.nippon.com/en/features/jg00091/" title="Mamachari: Japan’s Iconic Bicycle"><em>mamachari</em> bicycles</a> found in the suburbs of Japan’s big cities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353983/original/file-20200821-22-oyyvv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young woman riding a bike that also holds three young children." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353983/original/file-20200821-22-oyyvv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353983/original/file-20200821-22-oyyvv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353983/original/file-20200821-22-oyyvv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353983/original/file-20200821-22-oyyvv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353983/original/file-20200821-22-oyyvv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353983/original/file-20200821-22-oyyvv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353983/original/file-20200821-22-oyyvv9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Taking the children with you by bicycle is a common thing in Japan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ursa Komac</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have written about what makes Japanese city planning and transportation so bicycle-friendly in our most recent book, <a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789811557392">City Form, Economics and Culture: For the Architecture of Public Space</a>.</p>
<p>Note that Greater Tokyo (known as the Kanto region) is not an incredibly dense behemoth but a sea of single-family detached houses in which most of the population live.</p>
<p>Suburban Kanto is built around railway stations, much like many parts of Sydney or Melbourne. Large shops, schools and offices are located around the station so most local transport is on foot or bike. Longer trips are done by train.</p>
<p>Most people in Greater Tokyo walk or ride their bicycles to the station. This is possible because most streets carry very little traffic. Arterial roads and motorways are congested with commercial traffic, but can be easily avoided for local trips.</p>
<p>So you won’t often find cycle lanes or even footpaths at all in Japan. They are not necessary.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353984/original/file-20200821-16-18xf47p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young woman riding her bicycle with no other traffic on the road." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353984/original/file-20200821-16-18xf47p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353984/original/file-20200821-16-18xf47p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353984/original/file-20200821-16-18xf47p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353984/original/file-20200821-16-18xf47p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353984/original/file-20200821-16-18xf47p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353984/original/file-20200821-16-18xf47p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353984/original/file-20200821-16-18xf47p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">No congestion on many roads makes cycling an easy way to get to and from the railway stations in suburban Tokyo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ursa Komac</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What Australia can learn</h2>
<p>In Australia the overall goal, or strategy, should be to make it easier for people to cycle and walk to and from their local public transport station. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-recovery-public-transport-is-key-to-avoid-repeating-old-and-unsustainable-mistakes-138415">Coronavirus recovery: public transport is key to avoid repeating old and unsustainable mistakes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The ways to achieve this, the tactics, need to be different and tailored for each suburb.</p>
<p>For instance, some of our suburbs have very wide streets with little traffic so a row of trees could be planted in the middle and on-street car parking moved there, making it easier for cyclists on the road.</p>
<p>A wide bicycle lane could then be accommodated next to the footpath, away from opening car doors.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353989/original/file-20200821-18-j2tnfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white car parked in a bike lane." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353989/original/file-20200821-18-j2tnfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353989/original/file-20200821-18-j2tnfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353989/original/file-20200821-18-j2tnfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353989/original/file-20200821-18-j2tnfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353989/original/file-20200821-18-j2tnfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353989/original/file-20200821-18-j2tnfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353989/original/file-20200821-18-j2tnfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cars parked in bike lanes don’t help.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/yewenyi/4280738082/">Flickr/</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sometimes there is an existing network of lanes that could be easily adapted as a route for cyclists. In any case, paths should be clearly marked and continuous, so no-one rides all of sudden in heavy traffic.</p>
<p>Increasing walking and cycling also <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-the-sums-bicycle-friendly-changes-are-good-business-58213">generates opportunities for local business</a>. Little and mid-size shops should be allowed to flourish around stations.</p>
<p>All in all, the suburbs would be a bit less dependent on the CBD and the shopping centre without losing much of their charm and character, and we will all lose a couple of kilos.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144283/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If we’re to get more people walking and cycling in our cities, then we need to make it easier for people, and we can learn from others overseas.Pablo Guillen, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of SydneyMiguel Loyola, PhD Candidate, Business School, University of SydneyUrsa Komac, Senior Lecturer, Architectural Design and Technology, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1395632020-07-16T20:01:46Z2020-07-16T20:01:46ZDon’t abandon plans for high-speed rail in Australia – just look at all the benefits<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347045/original/file-20200713-38-ykqvc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=179%2C291%2C2085%2C1250&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thomas Nord/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Grattan Institute’s call to “<a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/fast-train-fever/" title="Fast train fever: Why renovated rail might work but bullet trains won’t">abandon</a>” plans for any high-speed rail network in Australia fails to look at the wider benefits such a project can bring by way of more productive economies and more sustainable towns and cities.</p>
<p>The study authors argue the development of any bullet train network linking Brisbane to Melbourne via Sydney and Canberra is “unsuitable for Australia”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/look-beyond-a-silver-bullet-train-for-stimulus-136834">Look beyond a silver bullet train for stimulus</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But what their argument neglects is that a project like high-speed rail has a unique capacity to reshape cities and population settlement patterns in positive ways.</p>
<h2>A question of cost</h2>
<p>The institute’s study says the idea of high-speed rail is an unwanted distraction in policy-making for the nation’s transport future. Its case relies on a review of the high-speed rail experience in Europe, Japan and China.</p>
<p>All of these nations, it says, have vastly different distributions of towns and major cities to that in Australia, which has extremely long distances between a few large cities.</p>
<p>The study also critiques a 2013 Commonwealth <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/index.aspx">analysis</a> that found a A$130 billion high-speed rail project linking Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne would generate a benefit-cost ratio of 2.3 to 1.
So every A$1 invested in a high-speed rail network would generate A$2.30 in benefits such as travel time savings, avoided vehicle operating costs and reduced road congestion. </p>
<p>But the Grattan study authors say that figure is based on a “cherry-picked” discount rate of 4%. This is economics jargon for the minimum return that the community would expect from the investment of its collective resources in any project. </p>
<p>The Grattan study also says the 2013 cost-benefit analysis did not allow for cost over-runs. Nor did it consider the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the enormous quantities of concrete and steel needed to build the infrastructure.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-speed-rail-on-australias-east-coast-would-increase-emissions-for-up-to-36-years-138655">High-speed rail on Australia's east coast would increase emissions for up to 36 years</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So why are some people, including <a href="https://infrastructuremagazine.com.au/2019/05/13/labor-commits-to-high-speed-rail-from-melbourne-to-brisbane/">the federal Labor Party</a>, still so enamoured with the idea of high-speed rail when others would have it binned?</p>
<h2>Some projects reshape cities</h2>
<p>Not all transport infrastructure projects are equal when it comes to cost-benefit analysis. Some investments have a transformative effect on population settlement patterns – they shape cities and regions.</p>
<p>The Sydney Harbour Bridge and the Melbourne Underground Rail Loop are classic examples of city-shaping projects. Each altered travel times between different parts of the metropolis, which then shifted the location preferences of households and businesses. This led to a substantially different city structure compared to what might otherwise have developed.</p>
<p>Other projects, the vast majority of government transport outlays, merely follow or service the pattern of settlement established by the city-shaping investments. These “follower” projects include the local arterial roads and tramways that circulate people and goods within cities. </p>
<p>The Commonwealth’s official <a href="https://www.atap.gov.au/framework/integrated-transport-land-use-planning/6-Strategic-or-city-shaping-infrastructure">guidelines for major project evaluation</a> recognise this distinction.</p>
<p>New ways of living, learning, working and playing become possible with city-shaping projects. By comparison, the procession of follower projects simply perpetuates settlement patterns and economic structures.</p>
<p>This is the claim and appeal of high-speed rail. Advocates <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/business/news-and-events/news/2019/10/03/fast-rail-answer-to-urban-sprawl.html">argue</a> such an investment would divert a significant proportion of urban growth from the far-flung suburbs of metropolitan areas to new regional locations. That’s because these regions will then have similar travel times into core city labour markets.</p>
<p>In these regional locations, households would enjoy greater housing choice and affordability, more walkability and better access to open space. They could even have better access to a range of community facilities than their metro suburban counterparts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-halve-train-travel-times-between-our-cities-by-moving-to-faster-rail-116512">We can halve train travel times between our cities by moving to faster rail</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Advocates also <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/67664/1/dp1435.pdf">argue</a> businesses in the big cities and intervening regional areas will be able to connect with each other at lower cost and source the skills they need more efficiently. This would boost productivity.</p>
<h2>Consider all the benefits</h2>
<p>The 2013 analysis took into account issues such as congestion, emissions (from travel) and transport accidents. But it did not attempt to quantify and monetise the effects of high-speed rail shaping cities and regions. </p>
<p>Arguably, the most important set of benefits from this investment were left out of the economic evaluation, simply because they are difficult to measure. </p>
<p>Modelling how the supply chains of businesses might change under the influence of city-shaping projects, or how the housing preferences of people might shift, is undoubtedly challenging. But being difficult to measure makes these impacts no less real.</p>
<p>Despite this limitation on the scope of benefits, the <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/files/HSR_Phase_2_Keyfindings_ES_Booklet.pdf">2013 study said</a> the high-speed rail project would return a benefit-cost ratio of 1.1 at a 7% discount rate, which the Grattan study says is the usual test applied to transport projects.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/smart-money-a-better-way-for-australia-to-select-big-transport-infrastructure-projects-92265">Smart money: a better way for Australia to select big transport infrastructure projects</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Grattan says the project barely scrapes in at this higher discount rate and implies many other projects would offer ratios greater than 1:1 and should be preferred. These would typically be smaller, follower projects that address local congestion problems.</p>
<p>But a project achieving a 1.1 benefit-cost ratio means Australia would still be better off undertaking the project compared to a business-as-usual case.</p>
<p>If the transformative effects of high-speed rail include more compact and walkable cities with less car dependency and greater productivity, then such a network has good reason to keep its grip on the Australian imagination.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139563/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcus Luigi Spiller is a principal and partner at SGS Economics & Planning Pty Ltd.</span></em></p>A high-speed rail network in Australia would create many benefits by reshaping cities and regional communities along its route.Marcus Luigi Spiller, Associate Professor of Urban Planning (honorary), The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1368362020-05-18T20:03:09Z2020-05-18T20:03:09ZIs another huge and costly road project really Sydney’s best option right now?<p>The New South Wales government has focused on delivering more motorways and rail links for Sydney, along with main roads in regional NSW, since the Coalition won office in 2011. The biggest of these, WestConnex, is still being built. Plans for yet another major motorway, the <a href="https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/projects/western-harbour-tunnel-beaches-link/index.html">Western Harbour Tunnel and Beaches Link</a>, are well advanced. </p>
<p>A hefty environmental impact statement (EIS), but incredibly no business case for a project costing about <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/big-balance-sheets-tested-for-nsw-s-next-15b-roads-project-20190717-p527xx">A$15 billion</a>, was recently put on public exhibition. When submissions closed at the end of March, the vast majority of <a href="https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/project/10451">1,455 submissions</a> from public agencies, individuals and organisations were objections to the Western Harbour Tunnel project.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=285&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335297/original/file-20200515-138615-kjng4a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The NSW government has promoted the Western Harbour Tunnel since announcing it in 2014, but hasn’t convinced the many objectors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G8fYlAP-M4">YouTube/NSW government</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The proposal follows three stages of WestConnex and the F6 Extension south of Sydney. Thousands of objections in the planning process did not stop the government going ahead with each stage. </p>
<p>This led to a state parliamentary <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/inquiries/2497/Final%20report%20-%20Impact%20of%20the%20WestConnex%20Project%20-%20FINAL%20-%2014%20December%202018.pdf">inquiry</a> in 2018. Its first finding was: “That the WestConnex project is, notwithstanding issues of implementation raised in this report, a vital and long-overdue addition to the road infrastructure of New South Wales.” </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/health-impacts-and-murky-decision-making-feed-public-distrust-of-projects-like-westconnex-106996">Health impacts and murky decision-making feed public distrust of projects like WestConnex</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, the committee also found “the NSW Government failed to adequately consider alternative options at the commencement of the WestConnex project” and that “the transparency arrangements pertaining to the WestConnex business case have been unsatisfactory”.</p>
<p>These two findings apply to the Western Harbour Tunnel process too.</p>
<p>In the run-up to the 2019 state election, the government promoted the project and placed on public exhibition an environmental impact statement for the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/abcillawarra/photos/a.170201826359012/1799373796775132/?type=3&eid=ARCxMdhfJzTCWlRd2sIUTVqLc7P-hfGmJAX00uY3WgnhS5zmMSeB-eYCCDmKAu9AjkfW_xUj3_IrdxXM">A$2.6 billion F6 extension</a> between Arncliffe and Kogarah.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=853&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335296/original/file-20200515-138615-1z0hr26.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1072&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proposed Western Harbour Tunnel and Beaches Link.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/projects/western-harbour-tunnel-beaches-link/index.html">Transport for NSW</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The state opposition promised to scrap the Western Harbour Tunnel and F6 projects. Instead, it would give priority to rail and public transport upgrades. </p>
<p>Some have <a href="https://theconversation.com/infrastructure-splurge-ignores-smarter-ways-to-keep-growing-cities-moving-105051">suggested time-of-day road congestion charges</a> as a much better option than more motorways.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nsw-election-promises-on-transport-add-up-112531">How the NSW election promises on transport add up</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Local government objections</h2>
<p>Four councils made detailed objections to the Western Harbour Tunnel proposal. </p>
<p>The City of Sydney, noting “it has been a long-time critic of WestConnex”, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is primarily because this costly motorway project will fail in its primary objective of easing congestion. Urban motorways do not solve congestion; they <a href="https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/09/citylab-university-induced-demand/569455/">induce demand</a> for motor vehicle trips and any additional capacity created is quickly filled. This phenomenon applies equally to the Western Harbour Tunnel and Warringah Freeway Project, a component of the WestConnex expansion.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The City of Sydney recommended the government provide alternative public transport options.</p>
<p>The Inner West Council, whose suburb of Rozelle will be adversely impacted by the project, has also long opposed inner-urban motorways. It prefers “traffic-reduction solutions to addressing congestion, including public and active transport, travel demand management and transit-oriented development, with some modest/targeted road improvement”.</p>
<p>North Sydney Council noted significant concerns with the EIS, including “inadequate justification and need, loss of open space, construction and operational road network impacts, air quality and human health concerns, environmental, visual, social, amenity and heritage impacts, as well as numerous strategic projects having the potential to be compromised”.</p>
<p>Willoughby City Council noted the limited time given for considering a very large EIS, made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic. It questioned why a public transport alternative was not assessed. “Known alternative solutions with lower climate impacts need to be considered to be consistent with action on climate change and improved resilience.”</p>
<h2>Ignoring the alternatives</h2>
<p>In 2017, it was <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/f6-planners-told-to-ignore-public-transport-build-roads-documents-show-20170407-gvgbon.html">revealed</a> the NSW government was instructing transport officials to ignore public transport alternatives to motorways such as the F6 extension and Western Harbour Tunnel. Wollongong-Sydney train travel times could be cut by half an hour for A$10 billion less, according to a Transport for NSW internal memo. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-halve-train-travel-times-between-our-cities-by-moving-to-faster-rail-116512">We can halve train travel times between our cities by moving to faster rail</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This is at a time when Sydney train ridership has been <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2019/yearbook_2019">increasing faster than the distance driven by Sydney motorists</a>. Rail showed 39% growth over ten years to 2018-19 and road just 12% in a time of rapid population growth.</p>
<p>Over many objections, the F6 extension is proceeding. Many aspects of the Western Harbour Tunnel need further attention. The NSW Ports Authority is concerned about the amount of highly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/warning-about-amount-of-toxic-sludge-to-be-dug-up-for-harbour-tunnel-20200416-p54kd3.html">contaminated sludge that will be dredged up</a> from the harbour. The shadow minister for roads, John Graham, <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnGrahamALP/status/1251415324324319234">notes</a> dredging will be close to residential areas.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1251415324324319234"}"></div></p>
<p>Heritage NSW has noted the project will have direct impacts on six sites, including the approaches to Sydney Harbour Bridge.</p>
<p>The Action for Public Transport (NSW) group questions the influence of the Transurban company on transport planning at a time when NSW’s long-term integrated transport and land use plans aim for net zero emissions by 2050. Its submission says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The funding for the project should be reallocated to more worthwhile projects such as filling in missing links in urban public transport systems, disentangling the passenger rail network from the rail freight network, and providing faster rail links to regional centres.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infrastructure-splurge-ignores-smarter-ways-to-keep-growing-cities-moving-105051">Infrastructure splurge ignores smarter ways to keep growing cities moving</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What are these other priorities?</h2>
<p>NSW has a shortage of “fit for purpose” rail infrastructure to serve a growing population. This includes the Sydney Metro West (an <a href="https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/project/25631">EIS is on exhibition</a>) and ensuring the new Western Sydney Airport has a rail service. More funding is also needed to upgrade the existing rail system and to cover a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/4-3-billion-cost-blowout-in-sydney-s-metro-rail-project">A$4.3 billion cost blowout</a> on the Sydney City and Southwest Metro project. </p>
<p>The government has <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-and-events/media-releases/fast-rail-network-to-transform-australia">acknowledged</a> a need for better rail services to the South Coast, Newcastle, Canberra and Orange. In 2018, it <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/projects/a-fast-rail-future-for-nsw">commissioned</a> an independent report on <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-04/fast-rail-given-green-light-by-berejiklian-without-commonwealth/10580658">fast rail options for NSW</a> by British fast rail expert <a href="https://static.nsw.gov.au/Fast-rail/1543351718/Expert-advice-on-fast-rail.pdf">Andrew McNaughton</a>. The completed report <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/faster-journeys-on-sydney-canberra-trains-among-priorities-20200225-p5444m.html">is yet to be released</a>. </p>
<p>The question now is should the Western Harbour Tunnel be abandoned or, at the very least, deferred until major rail projects have been completed.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>A reference to Western Highway Tunnel (which is of course the Western Harbour Tunnel) has been corrected in the last paragraph.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>
Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from the two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC and made a submission to the WHT proposal. He is affiliated, inter alia, Action for Public Transport (NSW) along with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Rail Futures Institute and Engineers Australia. The opinions expressed are those of the author.
</span></em></p>Once again, the state looks intent on pressing ahead with a huge road project without releasing a business case. Among the many concerns is the failure to look at lower-emission alternatives.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1342242020-03-29T19:11:43Z2020-03-29T19:11:43ZFor public transport to keep running, operators must find ways to outlast coronavirus<p>Minimising health risks has rightly been the focus of discussion during the coronavirus outbreak. This includes <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-limit-coronavirus-risks-on-public-transport-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-efforts-overseas-133764">efforts to protect</a> both frontline public transport employees and the travelling public. But we should also be concerned about the strategic, financial consequences for transport operators and their workforces.</p>
<p>We have already seen the <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2020/03/15/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-airlines">struggles of the aviation industry</a>. The COVID-19 pandemic also has major financial implications for the public transport sector. While it has been declared an essential service, fears about coronavirus, widespread work-from-home directives, cancellations of major events and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-nsw-and-victoria-set-to-tighten-lockdowns-as-pm-says-all-states-can-pursue-own-plans">potential city-wide lockdowns</a> will result in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/crisis-talks-as-melbourne-s-train-tram-passenger-numbers-slump-by-90-percent-20200327-p54elv.html">massive drops in patronage</a>.</p>
<p>Railways are a high fixed-cost industry (like airlines) and are particularly vulnerable to demand volatility.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-limit-coronavirus-risks-on-public-transport-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-efforts-overseas-133764">To limit coronavirus risks on public transport, here's what we can learn from efforts overseas</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Chinese experience has been that people preferred to use private cars and services like taxis and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/83a065e2-5ed5-11ea-8033-fa40a0d65a98">ride hailing rather than public transport</a>. In New York, we have seen a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-bike-commute.html">surge in cycling</a> as people seek to avoid the subway crowds.</p>
<h2>What are the impacts on revenue?</h2>
<p>Developments like these appear inevitable. However, the loss of revenue for transport operators depends very much on the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0739885917302846">design and specifications of their contracts</a> with government.</p>
<p>Most urban public transport systems in Australia are “gross cost” regimes. This means operators are paid on a per kilometre basis regardless of the number of passengers carried. These operators are much less susceptible to changes in demand.</p>
<p>Transport operators who work off “net cost” contracts – meaning they keep their fare revenue – are facing huge financial pressures. This in turn has implications for the cash flows of their suppliers, including vehicle manufacturers and consultancies.</p>
<p>Hong Kong rail operator MTR (which has businesses in Melbourne and Sydney), already battling almost a year of protests, has been forced into significant <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3052245/coronavirus-hong-kong-mtr-corps-passenger-numbers-plummet">service reductions</a>. In Japan, some <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/13/business/nozomi-shinkansen-suspended-virus/">Shinkansen services</a> are being suspended as patronage plummets. Many Asian operators have <a href="http://origin-sk.sagepub.com/cases/mass-transit-railway-systems-hong-kong-rail-plus-property-mtr-corp">diversified revenue streams</a> from property developments, but large falls in patronage also affect the ability to collect rents (such as from retail).</p>
<p>We are also seeing <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/13/21179032/public-transportation-coronavirus-covid19-ridership-nyc-sf-la-dc">US transit agencies</a> calling for <a href="https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-bart-will-ask-for-emergency-funding-as-ridership-drop-continues/">emergency funding</a> as demand drops. Major service cuts are on the horizon – suggestions include running a weekend schedule on weekdays. This is <a href="https://humantransit.org/2020/03/covid-19-what-if-transit-runs-out-of-money.html">likely to reduce patronage further</a> as the service becomes less useful for the travelling public.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1242833581413711875"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-most-affected-on-public-transport-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-133429">Who's most affected on public transport in the time of coronavirus?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Any service reduction has major ramifications for public transport workforces. Permanent staff may have their work hours reduced, while casual staff will struggle to get rostered. This will add to the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1369847805000872">psychological impacts</a> on staff.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/global-oil-price-collapse-is-australia-s-gain-angus-taylor-says-20200310-p548mp.html">global collapse in oil prices</a> is another factor as the lower cost of fuel makes driving more attractive.</p>
<p>Beyond government-contracted public transport there are many intercity coach operators and small-to-medium-sized charter operators (many family-owned). These operators serve the school, tourist, airport, hotel and special-needs markets. They are all private commercial operators.</p>
<p>Many charter operators have already seen a massive reduction in bookings due to the summer bushfires and travel bans. The <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/pm-introduces-strict-travel-restrictions-for-all-arrivals-20200315-p54a8q.html">loss of international tourism</a> and cancellation of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/australian-schools-stay-open-amid-coronavirus-but-nsw-brings-in-social-distancing">school excursions and extracurricular activities</a> will bring even greater pain to charter operators and their workforces. Chinese tours have been a large part of the charter market.</p>
<p>On the other side of the ledger are increased costs arising from <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-limit-coronavirus-risks-on-public-transport-heres-what-we-can-learn-from-efforts-overseas-133764">enhanced cleaning efforts and changes in operational practices</a> to reduce the risks of COVID-19 infection for as long as the crisis lasts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-has-said-well-face-at-least-6-months-of-disruption-where-does-that-number-come-from-134025">Scott Morrison has said we'll face at least 6 months of disruption. Where does that number come from?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A major issue in these circumstances is how to provide incentives for transport operators to go above and beyond what is required as part of their usual remit. Do operators merely “comply” with their contract specifications, or do they see an opportunity to extract value from proactively deploying, for instance, an enhanced disinfection regime? Should the contracted operator bear the extra costs, or should government share these costs?</p>
<h2>Reshaping the industry</h2>
<p>COVID-19 brings enormous unknowns for the public transport sector. Cost and revenue pressures may lead to transport operators fighting for survival. The result could be market consolidation and less competition in the industry.</p>
<p>In the longer term, how can <a href="https://infrastructurepipeline.org/project/sydney-metropolitan-bus-contracts/">future contract design</a> for both transport services and transport assets ensure resilience to “black swan” events and encourage a proactive, rather than reactive, response? Too often, a myopic focus on cost reduction has governed these discussions.</p>
<p>Finally, is there a way to protect commercial operators from huge swings in demand?</p>
<p>The coronavirus pandemic demands an urgent operational response by our public transport systems. But it should also encourage a strategic rethinking of our institutional structures and how public services are procured. Let us create an opportunity for longer-term reform out of the crisis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134224/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yale Z Wong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many operators have lost almost all their fare revenue. Even those who operate on contract terms that reduce the impact of falling patronage must bear the costs of disinfection and other precautions.Yale Z Wong, Research Associate, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1323552020-03-11T19:16:25Z2020-03-11T19:16:25Z1 million rides and counting: on-demand services bring public transport to the suburbs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319485/original/file-20200310-61066-1jf0i8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C51%2C1184%2C666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-are-pouring-into-mobility-technology-will-the-transport-revolution-live-up-to-the-hype-131154">technology-driven</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-old-road-rules-no-longer-apply-how-e-scooters-challenge-outdated-assumptions-129074">revolution in urban transport</a> is largely centred on the inner city. It has completely missed the suburbs, which lack the public transport services and shared micromobility devices, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/limes-not-lemons-lessons-from-australias-first-e-scooter-sharing-trial-108924">e-scooters</a>, that inner-city residents enjoy. But new technologies, skilled operators and willing governments may have produced a solution for the suburbs, known as on-demand transit. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-are-pouring-into-mobility-technology-will-the-transport-revolution-live-up-to-the-hype-131154">Billions are pouring into mobility technology – will the transport revolution live up to the hype?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>According to our data collection, there have been 36 on-demand trials across Australia since October 2017, providing over <a href="https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/dataset/on-demand-pilots-patronage">1 million rides to residents</a>. Half of these trips have been in the past six months. <a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/cities-research-institute/research/transport-group">Our research</a> at the Griffith Cities Research Institute examines the social equity impacts of these services.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318458/original/file-20200303-66099-1b80aq8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318458/original/file-20200303-66099-1b80aq8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/318458/original/file-20200303-66099-1b80aq8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318458/original/file-20200303-66099-1b80aq8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318458/original/file-20200303-66099-1b80aq8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318458/original/file-20200303-66099-1b80aq8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318458/original/file-20200303-66099-1b80aq8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/318458/original/file-20200303-66099-1b80aq8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rise in on-demand transit services and ridership in Australia since October 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data provided by the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads and obtained through Transport for New South Wales open data</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is on-demand transit?</h2>
<p>On-demand transit does not follow fixed routes or timetables. Riders book a trip for a cost similar to a bus fare. </p>
<p>Vehicles are often smaller buses, 13-seater vans, or sedans and fleets that can be adjusted based on demand for rides. Unburdened by fixed stops, which are convenient for only a few people, these services can weave their way through communities, optimising routes on the fly. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319023/original/file-20200306-106562-10bq8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C136%2C2946%2C1930&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319023/original/file-20200306-106562-10bq8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=29%2C136%2C2946%2C1930&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/319023/original/file-20200306-106562-10bq8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319023/original/file-20200306-106562-10bq8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319023/original/file-20200306-106562-10bq8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319023/original/file-20200306-106562-10bq8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319023/original/file-20200306-106562-10bq8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/319023/original/file-20200306-106562-10bq8f4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">BRIDJ runs on-demand bus services in parts of Sydney.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/39551170@N02/31426229187/in/photolist-PT2D4H-GfH7Hk-b6B35X-xaEQXq-xPUy3U-xQ5i2u-xaNyVP-xPYQNN-y5ncvu-y8mu3r-xQ3zbN-y5mqZ5-xaCiqm-y5kb2m-y8jQUv-xQ1wNY-y6JFhQ-xQ4R4j-y8gxVg-xQ8WoP-y6EaL3-y6NrQw-xavh8q-2gq3AAc-b6B2Rx-y8i5KR-y7Ef86-xQ32cu-xPZqno-y6KPJN-xaJt3K-xPY23s-y5ePry-xavMeS-xPZJ3m-xQ2bSU-xQ2Rc9-2g2zHfm">Simon_sees/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In certain areas of Australia, users simply download an app and request a ride just like a taxi or Uber, but cheaper. Others who would rather not use a smartphone app can book through a call centre or on a computer. </p>
<p>The impact of on-demand services may be much greater than simply adding a local bus route. While <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/1985/op_071">billions of dollars go into subsidising inner-city transport</a>, households’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/rapid-growth-is-widening-melbournes-social-and-economic-divide-117244">access to jobs and services gets much worse</a> with increasing distance from the centre. Not only do households in the outer suburbs have longer commutes, they also <a href="https://theconversation.com/living-liveable-this-is-what-residents-have-to-say-about-life-on-the-urban-fringe-111339">have to drive</a> to get to shops, recreation facilities or health services. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/living-liveable-this-is-what-residents-have-to-say-about-life-on-the-urban-fringe-111339">Living 'liveable': this is what residents have to say about life on the urban fringe</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>On-demand services allow people who cannot drive or do not have a car to be active members of society. </p>
<h2>What is happening now?</h2>
<p>Growth in on-demand services and their use has been rapid. Already, it seems some services are becoming too big to fail, as users’ daily reliance on them increases. </p>
<p>The number of operators has grown from seven at the end of 2017 to 22 by December 2019. Monthly ridership has increased nearly 1,000%.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://transportnsw.info/travel-info/ways-to-get-around/on-demand/northern-beaches">Northern Beaches service</a> in Sydney, operated by Keolis Downer, has had nearly 27 months of continuous growth. Starting with a measly ridership of 38 passengers, it now carries over 19,000 passengers a month. The <a href="https://transportnsw.info/travel-info/ways-to-get-around/on-demand/ponds-on-demand-service">service in The Ponds</a>, Sydney, grew from 1,000 to 8,000 riders in its first four months. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PHvm1CWyZyk?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Keolis Downer offers a variety of on-demand services in New South Wales.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In South Australia, home to the <a href="https://www.premier.sa.gov.au/news/media-releases/news/sas-first-on-demand-buses-hit-the-road2">most recent rollouts,</a> the Mount Barker service attracted <a href="https://www.miragenews.com/on-demand-bus-services-in-massive-demand/">more than 4,000 riders</a> in its first month.</p>
<p>However, not all on-demand services are created equal. Service provision, operations, locations and vehicles vary widely. Some have state-of-the-art technologies and new fleets of specially designed vehicles. Others operate simply under a procurement agreement with the local taxi provider and a call centre. </p>
<p>These trials haven’t been flawless. Eleven trials have closed. Nearly all have revised services, zones, hours or technology. Some services are world-class. Others need further revision. </p>
<p>This state of affairs reflects the speed of development in the field. Operators are learning how to better navigate the suburbs, while governing bodies are refining service requirements. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">For Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to solve our transport woes, some things need to change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>On-demand transit changes lives</h2>
<p>The Queensland government and Logan City launched one of the first on-demand transit trials in Australia. Also known as <a href="https://translink.com.au/travel-with-us/drt/what-is-drt">demand-responsive transit</a>, it covers three parts of Logan, south of Brisbane. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cZlMn6t4hmg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Logan trial launched in 2017 has been very popular.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://youtu.be/Z8euMMzWZPU">Our research</a> surveyed users of this service. Their responses powerfully demonstrate the value of on-demand transport. </p>
<p>Over 50% of respondents either had no driver’s licence or lacked access to a car for regular use. Illustrating the decreased burden on family and increased autonomy the service provides, one respondent said: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I can’t drive, so I depend on my husband to drive me around. With [on demand] service, it gives me freedom.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Commenting on a recent trip, another respondent said they “would have no [other] way of getting there. On-demand transport has been my saving grace.”</p>
<p>Stories like these illustrate the value of on-demand services. For the people who use them, these services are invaluable, improving their quality of life and access to opportunities. </p>
<p>Negative survey responses pointed toward technological hiccups, such as app glitches. Yet, when talking about the service itself, responses have been glowing. Asked what they would change, one person said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Nothing. It is the best thing since sliced bread. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>What’s next?</h2>
<p>Expect to see more of these rollouts in coming months. As technology and operations improve, these services are showing public transport in the outer suburbs can no longer be ignored.</p>
<p>If the <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-mobility-as-a-service-maas-to-solve-our-transport-woes-some-things-need-to-change-105119">transition towards mobility as a service (MAAS)</a> occurs as predicted, on-demand transit may play a key role. To develop these services, we need research into fare structures (<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-subscribe-to-movies-and-music-why-not-transport-119538">such as subscriptions</a>), vehicle types and branding, defining operating areas and promoting shared ridership. </p>
<p>The focus of our research will be to develop key metrics to allow for comparison between services, accounting for many of the variables. The private sector holds much of this knowledge, but it needs to become public to help governments plan more and better systems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132355/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Kaufman is a Transport Academic Partnership (TAP) Scholar and receives funding from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, who have provided some of the data needed for this article. He is also affiliated with the Cities Research Institute at Griffith University and the Griffith School of Environment and Science.</span></em></p>On-demand public transport has now provided over 1 million rides in 36 trials in various Australian cities. Is the problem of poor suburban public transport on the way to being solved?Benjamin Kaufman, PhD Candidate, Cities Research Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1319052020-03-01T19:03:38Z2020-03-01T19:03:38ZTransport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317523/original/file-20200227-24664-mmpjep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=92%2C134%2C5515%2C3362&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cars-stuck-traffic-intersection-120564112">e2dan/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At a time Australia is meant to be reducing its greenhouse emissions, the upward trend in transport sector emissions continues. The <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-september-2019">latest National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a> report released last week shows the transport sector emitted 102 million tonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂-e) in the 12 months to September 2019. This was 18.9% of Australia’s emissions. </p>
<p>Overall, the trend in emissions from all sectors have been essentially flat since 2013. If Australia is to reduce emissions, all sectors including transport must pull their weight. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-our-cities-can-cut-transport-emissions-in-a-hurry-avoid-shift-share-and-improve-106076">Four ways our cities can cut transport emissions in a hurry: avoid, shift, share and improve</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Overall trend emissions, by quarter, September 2009 to September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/nggi-quarterly-update-sep-2019.pdf">National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Transport emissions have <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/nggi-quarterly-update-sep-2019.pdf">gone up 64% since 1990</a>. That’s the largest percentage increase of any sector. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Transport emissions, actual and trend, by quarter, September 2009 to September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/nggi-quarterly-update-sep-2019.pdf">Source: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Transport sector emissions include the direct burning of fuels for road, rail, domestic aviation and domestic shipping, but exclude electricity for electric trains.</p>
<p>Transport emissions are now equal second with stationary energy (fuels consumed in the manufacturing, construction and commercial sectors and heating) at 18.9%. The electricity sector produces 33.6% of all emissions. The main reasons for transport emissions trending upwards are an over-dependence on cars with high average fuel use and an over-reliance on energy-intensive road freight.</p>
<h2>Inevitable results of policy failure</h2>
<p>Increasing transport emissions are a result of long-standing government policies on both sides of politics. In 2018, the Climate Council <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/transport-climate-change/">noted</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australia’s cars are more polluting; our relative investment in and use of public and active transport options is lower than comparable countries; and we lack credible targets, policies, or plans to reduce greenhouse gas pollution from transport.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>John Quiggin and Robin Smit recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">wrote about vehicle fuel efficiency</a> for The Conversation. They cited <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_9527cdcb01a84440a53308b3b5624320.pdf">new research</a> that indicates emissions from road transport will accelerate. This is largely due to increased sales of heavier vehicles, such as four-wheel drives, and diesel cars. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">We thought Australian cars were using less fuel. New research shows we were wrong</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The government has ignored recommendations to adopt mandatory fuel-efficiency standards for road passenger vehicles. Australia is the <a href="http://theconversation.com/labors-plan-for-transport-emissions-is-long-on-ambition-but-short-on-details-114592">only OECD country without such standards</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/NEEA%20October%202019%20%5BWeb%5D_2.pdf">Research by Hugh Saddler</a> found a marked increase in CO₂ emissions from burning diesel (up 21.7Mt between 2011 and 2018). A 2015 Turnbull government initiative to phase in from 2020 to 2025 a standard of 105g of CO₂ per kilometre for light vehicles was “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/02/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-diesel-vehicles-cancelled-out-cuts-from-renewable-energy">shelved after internal opposition</a> and criticism from the automotive lobby”. </p>
<p>At the same time, the uptake of electric vehicles is slow. Economist Ross Garnaut, in his 2019 book <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Superpower.html?id=KPiPDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">Superpower: Australia’s Low-Carbon Opportunity</a>, sums it up:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australia is late in preparation for and investment in electric road transport.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/clean-green-machines-the-truth-about-electric-vehicle-emissions-122619">Clean, green machines: the truth about electric vehicle emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australia’s low transport energy efficiency (and so high CO₂ emissions) has also attracted overseas attention. The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy <a href="https://www.aceee.org/portal/national-policy/international-scorecard">rates the world’s 25 largest energy users</a> for sectors including transportation. In 2018, Australia slipped two places to 18th overall. It was <a href="http://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/i1801.pdf">20th for transportation with just 6.5 points</a> out of a possible 25 on nine criteria.</p>
<p>On four of these criteria, Australia scored zero: fuel economy of passenger vehicles, having no fuel-efficiency standards for passenger vehicles and heavy trucks, and having no smart freight programs.</p>
<p>For vehicle travel per capita, the score was half a point. For three metrics – freight task per GDP, use of public transport, and investment in rail transit versus roads – Australia scored just one point each. </p>
<p>Only in one metric, energy intensity of freight transport, did Australia get full marks. This was a result of the very high energy efficiency of the iron ore railways in Western Australia’s Pilbara region.</p>
<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/imf-says-australia-has-overspent-on-roads-20180221-h0wfin">questioned</a> the Australian government’s preference for funding roads rather than more energy-efficient rail transport. The IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2019/02/13/Australia-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-46612">says</a> Australia should be spending more on infrastructure, but this should be on rail, airports and seaports, rather than roads. </p>
<h2>What can be done</h2>
<p>The first thing is to acknowledge that our preferred passenger transport modes of cars and planes cause more emissions than trains, buses, cycling and walking. For example, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49349566">CO₂ emissions per passenger km</a> can be 171 grams for a passenger car as against 41g for domestic rail. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2019">Data source: Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2019</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For freight, our high dependence on trucks rather than rail or sea freight increases emissions by a factor of three.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-plan-for-transport-emissions-is-long-on-ambition-but-short-on-details-114592">Labor's plan for transport emissions is long on ambition but short on details</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A 1996 report, <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/1996/report_094">Transport and Greenhouse</a>, from what is now the federal Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), reviewed no fewer than 16 measures (including five “no regrets” measures) to cut transport emissions. In a 2002 report, <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2002/report_105">Greenhouse Policy Options for Transport</a>, BITRE offered 11 measures to reduce vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), nine measures to reduce emissions per VKT, and four road-pricing measures (mass-distance charges for heavy trucks, tolls, internalising transport externalities and emission charging). </p>
<p>BITRE last appeared to revisit this important issue in a <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2009/wp_073">2009 report</a> on transport emission projections to 2020. This report projected a total of 103.87Mt CO₂-e for 2019. Actual 2019 transport emissions will be about 102Mt. </p>
<p>It’s important to note that BITRE’s 2009 projection was on a business-as-usual basis. The current level of about 4 tonnes a year per person is <a href="https://www.australasiantransportresearchforum.org.au/sites/default/files/2003_Laird.pdf">where Australia was in 2000</a>.</p>
<p>Clearly, Australia needs to do better. As well as the BITRE remedies, another remedy would be to <a href="https://www.australasiantransportresearchforum.org.au/sites/default/files/2003_Laird.pdf">adopt a 2002 National Action Plan</a> approved by the Australian Transport Council in collaboration with the Commonwealth, state and territory governments. The plan included, within ten years, “programs that encourage people to take fewer trips by car” and a shift “from predominantly fixed to predominantly variable costs” to “ensure that transport users experience more of the true cost of their travel choices”. This did not proceed. </p>
<p>However, New Zealand has effectively adopted this approach for many years. Petrol excise is now <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-generation-and-markets/liquid-fuel-market/duties-taxes-and-direct-levies-on-motor-fuels-in-new-zealand/">66.524 cents per litre</a> (just <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/business/excise-and-excise-equivalent-goods/fuel-excise/excise-rates-for-fuel/">42.3c/l in Australia</a>) and the revenue goes to the National Land Transport Fund for roads and alternatives to roads, resulting also in lower registration fees for cars. New Zealand has had mass distance pricing for heavy trucks for 40 years. These measures have not stopped its economy performing well. </p>
<p>Why do measures that would reduce transport emissions continue to be so elusive in Australia?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131905/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from the two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC and the former Energy R&D Corporation. He is affiliated, inter alia, with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Rail Futures Institute and Engineers Australia. The opinions expressed are those of the author.</span></em></p>The continued upward trend in our second-biggest source of emissions is a result of government inaction on a transport mix dominated by trucks and cars and a lack of fuel-efficiency standards.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311932020-02-19T19:01:59Z2020-02-19T19:01:59ZPeople love the idea of 20-minute neighbourhoods. So why isn’t it top of the agenda?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316041/original/file-20200218-10976-1gi67en.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C219%2C4248%2C3107&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/melbourne-australia-october-20-2016-richmond-503074843">Nils Versemann/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We were heavily involved in the consultation program for Melbourne’s long-term land-use plan, <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/">Plan Melbourne</a>. The idea that resonated most with many participants was shaping the city as a series of 20-minute neighbourhoods. </p>
<p>People generally loved the thought that most (not all) of the things needed for a good life could be within a 20-minute public transport trip, bike ride or walk from home. These are things such as shopping, business services, education, community facilities, recreational and sporting resources, and some jobs (but probably not brain surgery).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-need-to-give-up-on-crowded-cities-we-can-make-density-so-much-better-131304">No need to give up on crowded cities – we can make density so much better</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Creating a city of 20-minute neighbourhoods is a key policy direction of <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/">Plan Melbourne 2017-2050</a>. As the plan <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/highlights/healthy,-vibrant-and-inclusive-neighbourhoods">states</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The 20-minute neighbourhood is all about ‘living locally’ – giving people the ability to meet most of their everyday needs within a 20-minute walk, cycle or local public transport trip of their home.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This planning idea has gained Melbourne recognition in international planning circles. For example, Singapore’s recent <a href="https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltagov/en/who_we_are/our_work/land_transport_master_plan_2040.html">Land Transport Master Plan 2040</a> is based on shaping the city and its transport systems to achieve 20-minute towns within a 45-minute city. Officials who prepared the report have acknowledged to one of us Melbourne’s leadership with the concept. </p>
<p>The concept is not about travel by car. It is about active transport (walking, cycling) and the use of public transport. The goal is that this combination of modes would offer a reasonably sized catchment area in which people, jobs and services, including recreational opportunities and nature, are accessible.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/god-save-us-greenspace-oriented-development-could-make-higher-density-attractive-126204">GOD save us: greenspace-oriented development could make higher density attractive</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315667/original/file-20200217-10976-sx3sli.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=571&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/policy-and-strategy/planning-for-melbourne/plan-melbourne/20-minute-neighbourhoods">State Government of Victoria</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Inner parts of Australia’s capital cities and parts of their middle suburbs already meet a 20-minute neighbourhood test. Very few of the outer suburbs would do so. However, new developments such as the <a href="https://www.greaterspringfield.com.au/">City of Springfield</a> in outer Brisbane are encouraging.</p>
<h2>Key ingredients of 20-minute neighbourhoods</h2>
<p>If outer suburbs, in particular, are to become 20-minute neighbourhoods, then two key requirements must be met. </p>
<p>First, local development densities need to be increased. This means ensuring minimum density levels of around 25-30 dwellings per hectare, which will better support local activity and services provision. </p>
<p>Consultations with council planners suggest new developments in Melbourne’s outer north, for example, are typically running at about 18 dwellings. The density of developments was about 12 just a decade ago.</p>
<p>Accompanying more dense residential development is the need to integrate a mix of uses within these neighbourhoods. This would bring more jobs and services close to where people live. They would also have a range of housing to support a mix of household types, income levels and age groups. </p>
<p>So we need not just density but also a mix of land uses within a neighbourhood. This is often known as density plus diversity.</p>
<p>Second, local public transport service levels need to be greatly improved. To achieve 20-minute neighbourhoods requires local weekday public transport services running every 20 minutes or better, from around 5am until 11pm (start of last run). That’s a minimum of 55 services per stop per day per direction. </p>
<p>The map below shows very few parts of outer Melbourne have services anywhere near this level. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313621/original/file-20200205-20014-ppvhia.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Public transport service levels across Melbourne (dark green is best, dark red is worst).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: PTV GTFS feed</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-what-our-cities-need-to-do-to-be-truly-liveable-for-all-83967">This is what our cities need to do to be truly liveable for all</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What would it cost to achieve?</h2>
<p>Gross funding increases of about 50% for local public transport services (essentially buses) would be needed to meet this basic service standard for 20-minute neighbourhoods across Melbourne. Based on scaling up the <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+Service+Delivery.pdf">cost of current bus services</a> in Melbourne, we estimate the cost would be about A$250 million a year, or A$4 billion over the long term, in present values.</p>
<p>This is a modest amount compared to current capital commitments for rail. These total <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+State+Capital+Program.pdf">A$30-40 billion</a>, depending on what share of the <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+State+Capital+Program.pdf">cost of level-crossing removals</a> is attributed to rail. Development of the government’s proposed <a href="https://suburbanrailloop.vic.gov.au/en">Suburban Rail Loop</a> around the city will add an <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/victorian-government-says-melbournes-suburban-rail-loop-will-be-an-operationally-independent-railway">estimated A$50 billion</a>. Annual payments for metropolitan train services add <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+Service+Delivery.pdf">A$1.1 billion</a>. </p>
<p>Trains now carry only <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+Service+Delivery.pdf">twice as many passengers</a> as buses do. So the suggestion that an extra A$4 billion or so be spent on bus services, in capitalised terms, is very modest compared to the commitments being made to rail. The amount includes an allowance for infrastructure works to improve operating speeds – such as bus lanes and B-lights, which give buses priority through intersections.</p>
<p>The tram network could make an equally strong argument for extra funding, relative to trains, given the relative passenger loads carried and <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+State+Capital+Program.pdf">small new capital program</a> in place for trams (hundreds of millions rather than tens of billions).</p>
<p>Melbourne has recently had a massive jump in spending on capital projects, particularly transport projects. This investment is needed to tackle the backlog from years of neglect and cope with one of the <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/melbourne-how-big">fastest population growth rates</a> of any similar-sized city in the developed world. </p>
<p>The 2019-20 state budget, for example, suggests <a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles201920.budget.vic.gov.au/2019-20+State+Budget+-+State+Capital+Program.pdf">capital spending will average A$13.9 billion a year</a> over the four years to 2022-23. It was less than A$5 billion a year from 2005-06 to 2014-15. </p>
<h2>It’s about more than walkability</h2>
<p>In stark contrast, implementation of 20-minute neighbourhoods has been limited to <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/current-projects/20-minute-neighbourhoods/pilot-program">three pilot studies</a>, in <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/428910/Strathmore-Our-20-minute-neighbourhood.pdf">Strathmore</a>, <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/515242/Croydon-South-Our-20-minute-neighbourhood.pdf">South Croydon</a> and <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/515240/Sunshine-Our-20-minute-neighbourhood.pdf">Sunshine West</a>. These studies appear to be focused heavily on developing walkable neighbourhoods, rather than on improving access by walking, cycling and public transport, which was the original intent of the idea.</p>
<p>Walkable neighbourhoods are an important part of 20-minute neighbourhoods, but only one part. Increased neighbourhood densities and more mixed-use development across local active transport and public transport catchments, together with better walking, cycling and local public transport opportunities, need far greater attention if 20-minute neighbourhoods are to be created in outer and middle suburbs. </p>
<p>We expect a much stronger focus at the neighbourhood level will deliver very high social, environmental and economic returns from small outlays. But, for this to be achieved, much greater urgency is needed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Stanley was a member of the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Plan Melbourne and Plan Melbourne 2017-2050.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roz Hansen was Chair of the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Plan Melbourne and Plan Melbourne 2017-2050.</span></em></p>Only the inner suburbs of Melbourne and other capital cities meet the 20-minute neighbourhood test. But we could transform the other suburbs for much less than the cost of current transport projects.John Stanley, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School, University of SydneyRoz Hansen, Adjunct Professor, Deakin University; Professorial Fellow, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1312102020-02-17T18:54:41Z2020-02-17T18:54:41ZWest Gate Tunnel saga shows risk of ‘lock-in’ on mega-projects pitched by business<p>Victoria’s government <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-builders-threaten-to-tear-up-contract-over-soil-contamination-20200129-p53vo2.html">finds itself in a big hole</a> with its <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/">West Gate Tunnel project</a>. As diggers lie idle in a dispute over what to do with contaminated soil, it’s facing <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/transurban-says-west-gate-tunnel-deadline-is-under-review-20200211-p53zmj.html">long delays</a> and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/premier-doesn-t-rule-out-spending-more-money-on-west-gate-tunnel-20200204-p53xmm.html">billions in extra costs</a>. But the government appears locked into a <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/121515-vic-treasurer-and-his-top-bureaucrat-not-happy-with-latest-audit-report/">contentious project</a> that was put to it as a market-led proposal, an arrangement that <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/unsolicited-proposals-could-be-worse-for-taxpayers-accc-warns-20180830-h14pw2">bedevils transport projects across Australia</a>.</p>
<p>Australian governments look increasingly to <a href="http://www.projectmanagement.ie/blog/megaprojects-10-facts-you-should-know">mega-projects</a> to solve urban and regional transport problems. These projects are city-shaping. They can transform how entire urban regions function. </p>
<p>The public has a clear stake in these projects, but unsolicited market-led proposals are subverting planning processes that are meant to protect the public interest.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/market-led-infrastructure-may-sound-good-but-not-if-it-short-changes-the-public-127603">Market-led infrastructure may sound good but not if it short-changes the public</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Market-led proposals are <a href="https://www.claytonutz.com/knowledge/2014/february/victoria-releases-new-unsolicited-proposal-guideline-for-projects-and-services">unsolicited bids</a> to government by private firms to provide public services or infrastructure. Policies governing market-led proposals were <a href="https://graduates.corrs.com.au/assets/thinking/downloads/whats-next-market-led-proposals-in-aus.pdf">introduced in 2014 and 2015</a> by state governments across Australia to promote innovation in service delivery and value for money for taxpayers.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://thelawreviews.co.uk/edition/the-public-private-partnership-law-review-edition-5/1189694/australia">increasing use</a> of <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/infrastructure-investment/market-led-proposals">market-led proposals</a> for transport mega-projects raises important questions. How are policies governing these managed, to what end, and for whose benefit?</p>
<p>In Melbourne, the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/tunnel-trouble-dan-andrews-and-transurban-face-a-parting-of-the-ways-20200131-p53wjo.html">tensions</a> between toll road operator Transurban and the Victorian government over the West Gate Tunnel highlight a fundamental shortcoming of market-led proposals. Bluntly, these are not suited to the planning of transport mega-projects because governments can become “locked in” with <a href="https://theconversation.com/impending-traffic-chaos-beware-the-problematic-west-gate-tunnel-forecasts-79331">questionable benefits</a>. Lock-in has been <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/b36017">defined</a> as “the escalating commitment of decision-makers to an ineffective course of action”. </p>
<h2>The case of the West Gate Tunnel</h2>
<p>Transurban’s builders of the West Gate Tunnel, John Holland and CPB Contractors, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/more-than-100-west-gate-tunnel-workers-set-to-be-laid-off-20200113-p53r1a.html">laid off 137 workers</a> last month in a dispute about liability for contaminated soil. This is bad press for the state government, which touted <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/about/faqs/west-gate-tunnel/what-job-opportunities-are-there">job creation and training</a> as key project benefits.</p>
<p>The dispute could add to delays and costs on top of two earlier changes related to the project. The first was a ten-year extension to Transurban’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CityLink">CityLink tolling concession</a> that will cost road users <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-19/cost-to-motorists-of-westgate-tunnel-deal-revealed/10915998">billions of dollars</a>. The second was an increase in construction costs from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-12/melbournes-west-gate-tunnel-project-cost-blows-out/9248994">A$5.5 billion to A$6.7 billion</a> to extend tunnels to <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/western-distributor-longer-tunnel-chosen-for-second-river-crossing-project-20160709-gq24uf.html">save a public park</a>.</p>
<p>Explanations for the dispute include the Environmental Protection Authority <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-builders-threaten-to-tear-up-contract-over-soil-contamination-20200129-p53vo2.html">tightening soil disposal requirements</a>, <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-in-limbo-as-government-companies-argue-over-contaminated-soil-20200122-p53tnm.html">difficulties determining site conditions</a> during the environmental assessment process, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/west-gate-tunnel-builders-seek-to-terminate-contract-over-pfas/11909402">insufficient foresight and planning for these risks</a>.</p>
<p>Another explanation for what happened is “lock-in”. Evidence of lock-in on the West Gate Tunnel points to deeper systemic problems with market-led proposals for transport mega-projects in general.</p>
<h2>How does lock-in happen?</h2>
<p>Lock-in can occur when powerful corporations partner with governments in circumstances that enable them to exploit vulnerabilities in our public institutions. Some of these vulnerabilities include increasing reliance by governments on private finance, and the short period between elections compared to the time it takes to deliver bold public works programs.</p>
<p>Lock-in happens when the real decision to build a project is made well in advance of processes that are publicly declared to inform that decision. Once governments are locked in to a project, it can make alternatives appear increasingly unviable, if not unthinkable.</p>
<p>There is strong evidence to suggest this happened with the West Gate Tunnel. <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-an-international-pariah-on-west-gate-tunnel-experts-warn-20171207-h00use.html">Significant concerns</a> were raised early on that the project might not provide its claimed public benefits. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/impending-traffic-chaos-beware-the-problematic-west-gate-tunnel-forecasts-79331">Impending traffic chaos? Beware the problematic West Gate Tunnel forecasts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What makes market-led proposals different?</h2>
<p>Market-led proposals differ from government-led projects because planning is effectively outsourced to the private sector. </p>
<p>Market-led proposals also differ from <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/public-private-partnerships.asp">public-private partnerships</a>, like Melbourne’s CityLink tollway. In such cases, government plans these projects, but private firms deliver and operate them. (At least CityLink was part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/50-years-on-from-the-melbourne-transportation-plan-what-can-we-learn-from-its-legacy-127721">long-standing, if largely discredited, strategic plan</a>.)</p>
<p>Revelations that Transurban acted in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/tunnel-trouble-dan-andrews-and-transurban-face-a-parting-of-the-ways-20200131-p53wjo.html">secretive and strategic ways</a> to secure support for its West Gate Tunnel raise serious ethical questions. What does it mean to be a “good partner” to government? How should powerful private corporations obtain a “social licence” to operate? </p>
<p>These questions draw attention to problems inherent in Victoria’s opaque market-led proposal process. The government’s caution about the AirRail consortium’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/market-led-infrastructure-may-sound-good-but-not-if-it-short-changes-the-public-127603">unsolicited bid for Melbourne’s airport rail link</a> points toward some of these dangers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transurbans-west-gate-tollway-is-a-road-into-uncharted-territory-89164">Transurban's West Gate tollway is a road into uncharted territory</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What’s wrong with this approach?</h2>
<p>Government policies for assessing market-led proposals give <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/transurban-the-making-of-a-monster-20160512-gotjm9.html">powerful private firms like Transurban</a> influence over strategic planning. This contrasts with the relatively limited influence granted to affected communities and stakeholder groups advocating for sustainable transport solutions.</p>
<p>Acceptance of Transurban’s bid allowed a multi-billion-dollar toll road to override plans that had been <a href="https://www.viclabor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Victorian-Labor-Platform-2014.pdf">taken to an election</a>. These plans were simpler and far less expensive. The plans had been developed with the local community to better manage freight traffic by <a href="https://www.viclabor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Victorian-Labor-Platform-2014.pdf">upgrading access to existing freeways</a>.</p>
<p>The West Gate Tunnel process involved expedited planning that bypassed broad-based community consultation. John Holland and CPB Contractors were selected in April 2017 “<a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/only-the-best-for-the-west-with-6000-new-jobs/">to get to work</a>” on the project. That was five months before <a href="http://westgatetunnelproject.vic.gov.au/library/environment-effects-statement">public hearings</a> concluded in September. Over 500 submissions were received.</p>
<p>Add to this the suppression of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/expert-cut-from-toll-road-project-after-warning-tim-pallas-it-did-not-stack-up-20170803-gxoohi.html">independent and critical oversight</a> and a <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/voters-need-to-see-light-at-start-of-west-gate-tunnel-20180219-h0wawa.html">heavily redacted</a> business case, and a very concerning picture of Victoria’s market-led process emerges.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840">Sidelining citizens when deciding on transport projects is asking for trouble</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Wanted: an integrated transport plan</h2>
<p>Because governments are ultimately responsible for their partnerships, the Victorian government should demonstrate stronger accountability and leadership. Victorians are still waiting for an integrated transport plan, as is required to be prepared under the <a href="https://transport.vic.gov.au/about/legislation">2010 Transport Integration Act</a>. Instead of outsourcing transport problems to private firms, the government should develop a statewide, genuinely consultative, evidence-based plan.</p>
<p>An integrated transport plan would allow Victorians to see how future mega-projects, regardless of who proposes them, might serve everyone’s interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Whitten has been affiliated with advocacy groups in the planning and transport sector.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Crystal Legacy has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Woodcock conducts independent academic research funded by government and industry. He is affiliated with a number of advocacy groups in the planning and transport sector.</span></em></p>States across Australia are increasingly using market-led proposals to build infrastructure. The emerging problems reflect the inherent risks of projects that bypass proper public planning processes.James Whitten, Ph.D Candidate, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of MelbourneCrystal Legacy, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of MelbourneIan Woodcock, Senior Lecturer, Director of Urban Design, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.