tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/babes-bolyai-university-2989/articlesBabes Bolyai University 2024-01-23T12:55:03Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2216562024-01-23T12:55:03Z2024-01-23T12:55:03ZLiberia transferred power peacefully again: 3 reasons the calm is holding, and one red flag<p>Joseph Boakai was <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20240122-liberia-s-new-president-joseph-boakai-sworn-in-with-pledge-to-rescue-africa-s-oldest-republic">sworn in</a> as Liberia’s 26th president on 22 January 2024. Boakai secured a six year term of office after defeating incumbent president George Weah in a keenly contested November 2023 poll with <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/joseph-boakai-brink-liberian-presidency-vote-count-nears-completion-2023-11-17/">50.9%</a> of the votes cast. </p>
<p>The west African country of <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/west-africa/liberia">5 million people</a> reached a major milestone on 17 November 2023, when Weah, of the Congress for Democratic Change, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/joseph-boakai-brink-liberian-presidency-vote-count-nears-completion-2023-11-17/">conceded</a> defeat to the Unity Party candidate. </p>
<p>Weah scored <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/joseph-boakai-brink-liberian-presidency-vote-count-nears-completion-2023-11-17/">49.1%</a> of votes cast and lost the tight presidential run-off, which the EU described as “<a href="https://analystliberiaonline.com/well-administered-run-off-remarkably-close-race-eu-observer-mission-releases-initial-report/">remarkably close and well administered</a>”.</p>
<p>Liberia has enjoyed 20 years of peace and relative stability since the <a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA480890">end</a> of a civil war that killed over <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26382621">250,000 people</a> and displaced Liberians across the world. </p>
<p>During this time, the country has made gradual but significant progress in restoring the rule of law, securing civil liberties and strengthening state and human capacity. </p>
<p>One of the breakthrough moments came in 2018. That year the country saw peaceful power transfer from one democratically elected president to the other. This was the <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/09/1020841">first</a> of its kind since 1944. </p>
<p>At a time when there have been <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9861/">six successful and two attempted coups</a> in west Africa since 2020, Liberia’s transition towards a more stable state appears to be focused on security reforms and respect for election results. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259642752_West_Africa_A_Comparative_Study_of_Traditional_Conflict_Resolution_Methods_in_Liberia_and_Ghana">research</a> focuses on the patterns of post-war reconstruction efforts in sub-Saharan Africa and how states in the region respond to crises, conflict and statehood. </p>
<p>During my fieldwork in Liberia, I identified three factors that have kept the country on the path to peace: military neutrality in domestic politics; war fatigue; and a national drive towards reconciliation.</p>
<h2>Military neutrality in domestic politics</h2>
<p>Liberia, like many African nations, has experienced two eras of military dictatorships. One was under <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Samuel-K-Doe">Samuel Doe</a>, Liberia’s unelected president, and the other under <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Liberia">Charles Taylor</a>, Liberia’s 22nd president and leader of one of its main rebel groups. </p>
<p>Both men held a tight grip over the country. They used the military to drive their political objectives. </p>
<p>During their rule, army officers served as ministers, judges, administrators and members of parliament. They suppressed all forms of resistance and opposition. </p>
<p>The army’s involvement in Liberia’s sociopolitical and diplomatic affairs undermined the country’s development and eroded its progress. It crippled the economy and sent the nation into a brutal war that lasted 14 years. </p>
<p>The role of the military in domestic politics, however, ended with the fall of Taylor’s government in <a href="https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/6618.htm">August 2003</a>. Since then, the Armed Forces of Liberia has enjoyed independence from the office of the president. It has carried out reforms within its institutions of governance and has committed itself to protecting the constitution and the flag of Liberia. </p>
<p>The transition from military dictatorship to civilian rule has enabled Liberia to move towards a stable state. It can hold free and fair elections, and citizens can participate in governance. </p>
<h2>War fatigue</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/Liberia.pdf">Liberian civil war</a>, which lasted from 1989 to 2003, had a profound impact. It destroyed over <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/14912_file_Liberia_Growth.pdf">70%</a> of the country’s physical infrastructure and collapsed nearly all of its vital institutions. </p>
<p>The conflict claimed over <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26382621">250,000 lives</a>, displaced more than one million people, and broke down social and community ties. The horrors brought by the war had a chilling effect on the civilian population. </p>
<p>The peace Liberia enjoys today came at a high cost. Survivors of the war still suffer emotional and psychological exhaustion that manifests in various ways.</p>
<p>The diverse effects of the war left a stain on Liberia’s economy and undermined its pre-war progress. Poverty and the scars of war are still visible. </p>
<p>But beyond the difficulties lies the resilience of the government and its people to rebuild, determined not to resort to violence to settle differences. </p>
<p>Liberia’s <a href="https://core.ac.uk/reader/71736210">post-war elite</a> no longer see their ethnic or religious identities as sources of conflict but rather as the basis of strength for national prosperity. </p>
<p>Unity, combined with the <a href="https://www.state.gov/visa-restriction-policy-on-undermining-democracy-in-liberia/">intervention</a> of Liberia’s international partners, has so far made it difficult for individuals to undermine its democracy. </p>
<h2>Reconciliation</h2>
<p>Liberia has made progress in promoting reconciliation, inter-tribal dialogue and transitional justice since the war ended. This has played a role in preventing a relapse into conflict, facilitating healing and fostering unity. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/afr340072006en.pdf">Truth and Reconciliation Commission</a> was established in 2005 to document the atrocities and violations committed during the war, identify key perpetrators, and make recommendations for healing and reconciliation. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.trcofliberia.org/reports/final-report.html">commission’s report</a>, published in 2009, recommended reparations, reforms and prosecution of wrongdoers. </p>
<p>Initiatives such as psychological support, vocational education and ritual purifications aimed at reintegrating ex-combatants into society have played roles in maintaining the peace. </p>
<p>Equally important is the role of truth-telling in Liberia’s recovery journey. Warlords like “<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/03/14/general-butt-naked-the-repentant-warlord">General Butt Naked</a>”, who voluntarily confessed their atrocities, and went from community to community to apologise for their crimes, received forgiveness from victims (or surviving relatives of victims) and immunity from prosecution.</p>
<p>Community-based engagement and activities aimed at addressing grievances at the grassroots level have also contributed to restoring trust and social cohesion among Liberians. </p>
<p>The need for reconciliation was echoed in Weah’s <a href="https://thenewdawnliberia.com/president-weahs-full-concession-speech/">concession speech</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Tonight, the CDC has lost the election, but Liberia has won. This is a time for graciousness in defeat. Let us heal the divisions caused by the campaign and come together as one united people.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>What in the election’s outcome could threaten the peace?</h2>
<p>But there are still dangers, in particular the strength of warlords within its political space. </p>
<p>Since 2006, warlords and war profiteers have played key roles in choosing the country’s presidents. The relationship enables warlords to trade political support for protection, while presidential candidates exchange justice for votes. </p>
<p>This could endanger the country’s security. Liberia must hold individuals accountable for war crimes, address the root causes of the conflict, and provide reparation to victims. </p>
<p>If Liberia is to achieve sustainable peace, it must carefully consider the connection between its post-war elites and former warlords.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221656/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Wratto is affiliated with The Center for Peace and Violence Prevention. </span></em></p>As Liberia experiences yet another transfer of power, military neutrality in domestic politics, war fatigue and desire for reconciliation have been identified as reasons for sustained peace.Charles Wratto, Associate Professor of Peace, Politics, and Conflict Studies, Babes Bolyai University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151812023-10-08T08:12:37Z2023-10-08T08:12:37ZLiberia elections 2023: three things the next president must do<p>Liberia, Africa’s oldest republic, is <a href="https://www.ndi.org/2023-liberia-presidential-election">about to choose</a> its next president. </p>
<p>On 10 October, <a href="https://necliberia.org/ecal_info.php?&92fe2e1cedf0fff268b812622bbd952ff930c1b2=MjA3">46 political parties</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-06/liberia-s-weah-to-face-19-rivals-in-october-vote-amid-public-ire">20 presidential candidates</a> will compete for two million registered votes at 5,000 polling stations in 15 counties. </p>
<p>But whoever wins will confront a polarised Liberia. </p>
<p>Liberia is more divided than it has been since the end of its <a href="https://cja.org/where-we-work/liberia/">14-year civil war</a> in 2003. The war ended with the signing of a <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/LR_030818_Peace%20Agreement%20btwn%20GovLiberia%2CLURD%2CMODEL%20and%20the%20Political%20Parties.pdf">peace agreement</a>, but its <a href="https://www.huckmag.com/article/photos-capturing-the-invisible-scars-of-liberias-civil-war">scars</a> are still visible across the country. </p>
<p>Frustration around the soaring cost of living, cronyism, patronage, nepotism, and the culture of impunity which triggered the war is once again tearing the country of <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/liberia-population/">5.4 million</a> people apart. </p>
<p>There are also external factors that could undermine Liberia’s recent <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/27/liberia-economic-update-prospects-for-inclusive-and-sustainable-growth">progress</a>. For example, the <a href="https://ecfr.eu/special/african-cooperation/mano-river-union/">Mano River Union</a>, a sub-regional body of which Liberia is a founding member, remains volatile. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/11/uncertainty-in-guinea-after-military-coup-topples-alpha-conde">recent military coup</a> in Guinea, the <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2022/08/10/deadly-anti-government-protests-erupt-in-sierra-leone">anti-government protest</a> in Sierra Leone and <a href="https://monitor.civicus.org/explore/several-killed-protest-violence-president-ouattara-announces-third-term-bid/">the violence</a> around <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alassane-Ouattara">Alassane Ouattara</a>’s third-term re-election “victory” in Côte d’Ivoire are signals of vulnerability within the Mano River Union.</p>
<p>The next president will have to address three priorities to restore hope and confidence in Liberia’s recovery:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>national cohesion</p></li>
<li><p>corruption</p></li>
<li><p>stronger state institutions. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>My previous <a href="http://cscubb.ro/cop/ro/misiunea-ecomog-reevaluata/">analysis</a> of Liberia revealed the country’s inability to manage its internal conflicts. It also showed how Liberia’s reliance on regional powers like the <a href="https://ecowas.int/">Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas)</a> escalated and prolonged disputes. The next president must recognise these realities and address the three priority areas. </p>
<h2>Falling living standards</h2>
<p>There are growing concerns in Liberia that the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/George-Weah">George Weah-led</a> administration is not doing enough to improve living standards. </p>
<p>There were high expectations of change when the president took office in 2018. Many expected him to lift them from poverty. They saw a real chance for a better future. Today, however, a good number of Liberians feel he has lost his connection with poverty and with the people who elected him into office. </p>
<p>Over <a href="https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/poverty/987B9C90-CB9F-4D93-AE8C-750588BF00QA/AM2020/Global_POVEQ_LBR.pdf">50%</a> of Liberians live below the poverty line. The rising cost of basic commodities prevents families from meeting their food needs. </p>
<p>Weah alone is not responsible for all of Liberia’s problems. His administration inherited irregularities that plagued previous <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/opinion/liberia-george-weah-inauguration.html">governments</a>. </p>
<h2>Endemic corruption</h2>
<p>Corruption shows up in many forms and at all levels in Liberia. It disrupts democratic decision-making processes, weakens public trust in government and undermines the rule of law. </p>
<p>The nation’s integrity institutions lack independence. They include the <a href="https://www.iaaca.net/node/294">Liberian Anti-Corruption Commission</a>, the <a href="https://gac.gov.lr/">General Audit Commission</a> and the <a href="https://www.leiti.org.lr/">Liberia Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative</a>. </p>
<p>These agencies were created to curb corrupt practices. But they lack political independence, capacity and resources. </p>
<p>They are further weakened by a <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/316010/in-liberia-corruption-sanctions-are-not-a-deterrent-for-candidates/">culture of impunity</a>. And managerial appointments are often made on the basis of cronyism (jobs for friends and colleagues) and patronage (using state power to reward selected voters for electoral support). </p>
<p>Corruption is prevalent in the judiciary too. Judges solicit bribes in exchange for <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0921">decisions</a> that favour offenders. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-liberia-politics-idUSKBN1FB24B">President George Weah</a> and his <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-19876111">predecessor</a>, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, ran on the promise of fighting corruption. Both failed to live up to their commitment.</p>
<p>In 2017, after her terms as head of state, Sirleaf <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/liberia-leader-acknowledges-failure-anti-corruption-fight/3690703.html">admitted</a> that her government had not done enough to fight corruption. </p>
<p>In 2022 Weah had to suspend three of his top officials after the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/15/us-sanctions-3-senior-liberian-government-officials">US imposed sanctions</a> on <a href="https://www.state.gov/imposing-sanctions-on-senior-liberian-government-officials/">them</a> for corruption and abuse of state functions. No investigation has been launched and none has been prosecuted. </p>
<p>Weah himself has faced serious criticism for his refusal to declare his <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2023/10/03/liberias-president-weah-must-be-removed-from-power-democratically/">assets</a> upon taking office and for <a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/global-witness-condemns-illegal-interference-liberian-transparency-and-anti-corruption-agency/">violating</a> Liberia Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative’s standard procedures. </p>
<p>The country <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/liberia/corruption-rank">ranks 142nd</a> out of 180 countries in the corruption perception index. It could slide back into chaos unless the next leader takes serious actions.</p>
<p>Like Sirleaf, Weah pledged to build an equal, fair and just Liberia. But his lack of action in the fight against corruption sends the wrong message to development partners. And it undermines voters’ confidence in the electoral system. </p>
<p>Voters’ confidence in the upcoming poll is already low. A study by the <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/organisation/center-democratic-governance/">Center for Democratic Governance</a> in Liberia shows only <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/News-release-Trust-in-elections-commission-weak-as-Liberians-approach-elections-Afrobarometer-3april23.pdf">34%</a> of Liberians believe in the ability of the <a href="https://www.necliberia.org/">National Elections Commission</a> to hold a free and fair elections. </p>
<p>The lack of trust in the electoral system is reinforced by the commission’s <a href="https://www.liberianobserver.com/liberia-necs-failure-publish-final-vr-raises-concerns">failure </a> to release the final voter roll 16 days before the elections. This has cast further doubt on the commission’s credibility and neutrality. </p>
<h2>Impunity</h2>
<p>There is also anger over the government’s failure to <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/12/05/briefing-note-call-war-crimes-court-liberia">establish tribunals</a> to try individuals accused of war crimes, as recommended by Liberia’s <a href="https://hmcwordpress.humanities.mcmaster.ca/Truthcommissions/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Liberia.TRC_.Report-FULL.pdf">Truth and Reconciliation Commission</a>. </p>
<p>Victims of the war want to see warlords <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67017365">punished</a> for their crimes. But the call for justice is ignored as Weah and politician Joseph Boakai (Sirleaf’s vice-president from 2006 to 2018) forge stronger <a href="https://www.liberianobserver.com/betrayal-trust-weahs-and-boakais-pact-warlords-amidst-liberias-cry-justice">alliances</a> with perpetrators and war profiteers. </p>
<p>Weah’s 2017 election victory was largely attributed to the support he received from warlord <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-liberia-election-idUKKBN1CV2IL">Prince Johnson</a>. Weah was also supported by Jewel Howard Taylor, his vice-president and ex-wife of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2012/4/27/charles-taylor-trial-highlights-icc-concerns">Charles Taylor</a>, Liberia’s 22nd president, convicted for <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements/2013/11/crc-welcomes-charles-taylor-conviction-deterrent-use-children-armed-conflict">atrocities</a> committed in Sierra Leone. </p>
<p>Weah and Johnson have long parted ways. Johnson has given his <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/10/02/2023/liberia-election-boakai-weah">support</a> for the 2023 general elections to 78-year-old Boakai. </p>
<p>However, Weah is not isolated. He still enjoys popular support from his status as a football star, his coalition with Taylor, and his new alliance with <a href="https://frontpageafricaonline.com/politics/liberia-former-rebel-commander-roland-duo-campaigns-on-war-kills-says-he-fought-more-than-prince-johnson-so-he-deserves-a-senatorial-seat-for-nimba-county/">Roland Duo</a>, a former rebel commander who boasts of his crimes. </p>
<p>Former warlords control large voting blocs, sought after by presidential candidates. Establishing a war crime court would amount to political suicide. </p>
<p>But the new president must introduce genuine reforms and promote good governance if he is to sustain peace or govern a region filled with political backstabbing, resource competition and the struggle for new global alliances. </p>
<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>The next head of state must act decisively on deep-rooted and unresolved grievances. </p>
<p>He or she must address public sector corruption, grant full independence to the nation’s transparency institutions and provide adequate resources for the Liberian Anti-Corruption Commission and the General Audit Commission to hold offenders accountable. </p>
<p>Liberia’s next president must ensure that the recommendations of the General Audit Commission are followed through and empower the Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate and indict those suspected of bribery, embezzlement and illicit enrichment. </p>
<p>Low-level corruption should not go unpunished. That includes things like patients paying bribes for medical treatment, and teachers demanding special favours from students to pass an exam.</p>
<p>Liberians hope for a better future as 10 October approaches.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215181/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Wratto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Liberia’s next president must restore national cohesion, tackle corruption, and strengthen state institutions.Charles Wratto, Associate Professor of Peace, Politics, and Conflict Studies, Babes Bolyai University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1691802021-11-21T16:57:23Z2021-11-21T16:57:23ZHow a Romanian village resurrected the Danube Delta after the fall of the Iron Curtain<p>Mahmudia is a picturesque village in Tulcea county, Romania, situated along the southernmost canal of the <a href="https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/588/">Danube Delta</a>, where the famous river empties into the Black Sea. The village was built between two different worlds on either side of the Sfântu Gheorghe Channel. To the south, the arid Balkan steppe made up of rolling hills and ancient rocks, to the north, the lush wetlands of the delta.</p>
<p>For much of the year, Mahmudia is full of Romanian and foreign tourists – especially from Germany and France – who come to see its incredible diversity of aquatic birds and to taste the traditional local dishes made from a large variety of fish species. This brings in significant income to the village, ensuring a decent standard of living for local people.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d569759.9223256421!2d29.094415844951257!3d45.017702082624695!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x40b9ef74229a657d%3A0x29bb1d0a2f07e42d!2sMahmudia%20827130%2C%20Romania!5e0!3m2!1sen!2sfr!4v1634734779293!5m2!1sen!2sfr" width="100%" height="450" style="border:0;" allowfullscreen="" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p>But this is only recent history. In communist times, this was an area of intense development, based on the extreme transformation of nature for economic ends – a view which is still shared by many agricultural and forestry engineers.</p>
<p>The story of Mahmudia’s return to nature provides a vital lesson in the value of rescuing ecosystems from agricultural overdevelopment.</p>
<h2>Draining the delta</h2>
<p>In the 80s, the fields of the Danube Delta were considered the most fertile terrain in the country by the many agronomists acting as consultants to dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu, who was very interested in the development of a national agriculture for Romania.</p>
<p>Ceaușescu launched a giant project to drain the majority of the delta in 1983, accompanied by an intense propaganda campaign. And so the infamous destruction of the most beautiful and best-preserved delta on the European continent began.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427489/original/file-20211020-26249-1re3b1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nicolae Ceauşescu visits a state agricultural enterprise in Amzacea, Constanţa County, Romania, 1979" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427489/original/file-20211020-26249-1re3b1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/427489/original/file-20211020-26249-1re3b1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427489/original/file-20211020-26249-1re3b1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427489/original/file-20211020-26249-1re3b1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427489/original/file-20211020-26249-1re3b1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427489/original/file-20211020-26249-1re3b1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/427489/original/file-20211020-26249-1re3b1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nicolae Ceauşescu visits a state agricultural enterprise in Amzacea, Constanţa County, Romania, 1979.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://fototeca.iiccr.ro/picdetails.php?picid=35222X16X19">Fototeca online a comunismului românesc, Photo no: #L008, Quota:88/1979; (20.10.2021)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Large areas along the Black Sea were drained and transformed into agricultural fields, their biodiversity totally destroyed. Today, those areas are <a href="https://www.info-delta.ro/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/harta_vegetatie-1.jpg">easily identified</a> by their uniformity across vast swathes of the landscape, the desertified fields an unhealthy, pallescent yellow.</p>
<p>The agronomists were not aware at the time that overdevelopment would lead to the arid climate of the territories of the Balkan steppe to compromise the productivity of the rich soils of the delta. As a result, today large areas of the delta are totally barren, populated only by scarce species of weeds.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432978/original/file-20211121-27-3pl7r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The village of Mahmudia in Romania and the surrounding waterways" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432978/original/file-20211121-27-3pl7r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432978/original/file-20211121-27-3pl7r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432978/original/file-20211121-27-3pl7r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432978/original/file-20211121-27-3pl7r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432978/original/file-20211121-27-3pl7r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432978/original/file-20211121-27-3pl7r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432978/original/file-20211121-27-3pl7r7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mahumudia lost its connection with the Danube Delta under communist rule.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Iolanda-Veronica Ganea</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If Ceaușescu’s programme had continued, the result would have been the complete destruction of the delta’s aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and the transformation of this unique area of the European continent into a collection of barren fields, with its hundreds of lakes and labyrinthine channels all drained and the three Danube branches enclosed between continuous dams. It was only the end of communism in Romania that halted this process.</p>
<h2>How Mahmudia fought back</h2>
<p>At the beginning of the 21st century, the effects of the communist programme were still with Mahmudia. The village no longer belonged to the deltaic world. It sat instead on a large polder – a piece of farm land reclaimed from the water – surrounded by huge dams which enclosed 6km of monotonous agriculture and wasteland between the tiny port and the few channels and lakes that remained wild.</p>
<p>No tourists visited Mahmudia, as the ddelta was by now far away from the village. Instead, visitors went to nearby sites that directly bordered the waterways. Mahmudia’s fishers also had travel around 25 km to reach the first lakes in the Delta and gather their daily catches.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432979/original/file-20211121-13-o06y3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A grey heron sitting on a branch" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432979/original/file-20211121-13-o06y3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432979/original/file-20211121-13-o06y3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432979/original/file-20211121-13-o06y3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432979/original/file-20211121-13-o06y3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432979/original/file-20211121-13-o06y3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432979/original/file-20211121-13-o06y3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432979/original/file-20211121-13-o06y3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The grey heron, or ardea cinerea, is one of more than 30 bird species that has flocked to the restored wetland in Mahmudia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Iolanda-Veronica Ganea</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After noticing the poverty in their village compared to the earnings from eco-tourism made by their neighbours who had a connection with the delta, the Mahmudians decided to act. The entire community, led by the local administration, gathered to find a way to bring the delta back to their village.</p>
<p>Between 2011 to 2015, Mahmudia launched the <a href="https://wwfeu.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/nature_restoration__helping_people__biodiversity_and_climate__wwf.pdf">first community effort</a> to ecologically restore a part of the Danube Delta. Today, it represents the only communist-era agricultural desert to have been given back to the waterways.</p>
<h2>Tear down these dam walls</h2>
<p>Mahmudia was not able to restore its whole territory. Large portions were the property of private, industrial agricultural companies, where the village could not legally intervene.</p>
<p>But right in front of the village, a segment of salinised terrain remained in local hands. In the late 80s, the area, known as Carasuhat, had been transformed into a maidan – a communal area for cattle and sheep grazing. Though very small compared to the entire polder, it provided solution Mahmudia was looking for.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432983/original/file-20211121-22093-1c1rppp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white-tailed eagle, haliaeetus albicilla in front of some reeds and above water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432983/original/file-20211121-22093-1c1rppp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432983/original/file-20211121-22093-1c1rppp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432983/original/file-20211121-22093-1c1rppp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432983/original/file-20211121-22093-1c1rppp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432983/original/file-20211121-22093-1c1rppp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432983/original/file-20211121-22093-1c1rppp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432983/original/file-20211121-22093-1c1rppp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A white-tailed eagle, haliaeetus albicilla, spotted outside Mahmudia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Iolanda-Veronica Ganea</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The community broke down the surrounding dams of the communal property were broken down, and the deltaic waters returned to the 9.40 km<sup>2</sup> surface of the terrain. Slowly but steadily, the delta waters restored the old channels, lakes and islands of the lost former world.</p>
<p>Re-connected at last to the Danube Delta, Mahmudia gained its long-desired status as a “deltaic gate”. The tourists started to come, and people’s incomes began to grow. More than 30 official <a href="https://wwfeu.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/nature_restoration__helping_people__biodiversity_and_climate__wwf.pdf">guest houses opened</a>, with enough beds for 300 people. It is one of the most successful stories of a local community starting to improve standards of living thanks to a restored ecosystem.</p>
<h2>Supporting eco-tourism</h2>
<p>This year, we have been studying the wildlife of the restored area in Carasuhat to understand the real value of these aquatic ecosystems and the services they provide.</p>
<p>We were amazed by the large flocks of water birds we counted, and the variety of species encountered, and were able to conclude that the variety and numbers of birds in the restored area were much greater than before the restoration. More than <a href="https://www.ziuaconstanta.ro/stiri/actualitate/peste-30-de-specii-de-pasari-acvatice-monitorizate-pana-acum-in-incinta-renaturata-de-la-carasuhat-mahmudia-galerie-foto-728552.html">30 species of aquatic birds</a> have been monitored in the restored area and <a href="http://greenly.ro/message-in-a-bottle/ecological-restoration-in-mahmudia">18 types of habitat</a> have been reconstructed.</p>
<p>While birds and fish species quickly repopulated the area, plant communities such as the <em>Nymphaea alba</em> species of white water lily are coming back at a much slower rate.</p>
<p>Our current project focused upon the interconnection between local communities, which are very culturally and ethnically diverse, consisting of several minorities including Lipovans, Ukrainians and Turks, and biodiversity conservation in the Sfântu Gheorghe Channel area.</p>
<p>We are developing a scientific study with high-resolution inventory and mapping of the local ecosystems and the species which are important for conservation, along with information materials to raise public awareness about the value of local ecotourism and a collaborative network of accommodation and activities.</p>
<p>The case of Mahmudia has shown how entire communities can be radically transformed by restoring depleted ecosystems. The new wetland has reduced flood risk, contributed to carbon sequestration and serves as sediment traps for runoff. Meanwhile, local people have benefited from ecotourism and the local economy has prospered. If we take care of our local environment, nature will help us improve well-being for all.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398230/original/file-20210502-19-2lk7b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398230/original/file-20210502-19-2lk7b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398230/original/file-20210502-19-2lk7b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398230/original/file-20210502-19-2lk7b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398230/original/file-20210502-19-2lk7b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398230/original/file-20210502-19-2lk7b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398230/original/file-20210502-19-2lk7b1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>For 50 years, the UNESCO <a href="https://en.unesco.org/mab">Man and the Biosphere Program</a> (MAB) has combined exact, natural and social sciences to find solutions implemented in the 714 exceptional sites (129 countries) of biosphere reserves.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iolanda-Veronica Ganea a reçu des financements de Les Prix du UNESCO l’Homme et la Biosphère (MAB). Les auteurs souhaitent remercier le Conseil Local de Mahmudia et les membres de la communauté pour toutes les informations et documents fournis. De plus, les auteurs tiennent à remercier les étudiants en master Olivia Pistrui et Virgil Oltean pour leur contribution significative aux sorties sur le terrain.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Badarau Alexandru Sabin ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Mahmudia became a wasteland under dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu’s communist agricultural policy. But villagers fought to resurrect their home and reconnect with the wilderness.Iolanda-Veronica Ganea, PhD student in Environmental Science, Babes Bolyai University Badarau Alexandru Sabin, Associate Professor of Biogeography and Biodiversity Conservation, PhD, Babes Bolyai University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1121742019-02-24T20:03:28Z2019-02-24T20:03:28ZPeut-on faire confiance à la Roumanie à la tête du Conseil de l’Union européenne?<p>Attardons-nous un moment sur la situation de l’Union européenne : le Royaume-Uni a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/15/world/europe/may-brexit-vote-fail.html">du mal</a> à partir ; une nouvelle récession économique est en <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/raulelizalde/2018/12/17/another-warning-that-a-2019-recession-is-coming/">vue</a> ; les États membres d’Europe du Sud <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2018/09/26/new-low-italian-migration-policies">doivent encore trouver des moyens durables</a> d’accueillir les migrants et les réfugiés qui arrivent sur leurs côtes ; et le domaine énergétique européen reste un sujet sensible, l’Allemagne et la Russie poursuivant leur projet de <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-russia-pipeline/tough-to-stop-nord-stream-2-now-its-being-built-eus-oettinger-idUSKCN1OR0YF">gazoduc Nord Stream 2</a>.</p>
<p>De nombreux États font face à la montée du populisme et de l’euroscepticisme, tendances qui se sont infiltrées dans les parlements et même les gouvernements, et donc au sein de structures décisionnelles de l’UE. Bref, un climat de tension règne au moment où la <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/presidency-council-eu/">Roumanie s’installe à la présidence du Conseil de l’UE</a>. Plusieurs dirigeants européens craignent que, compte tenu de son climat politique interne, le <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/30/romania-to-take-over-eu-presidency-amid-fears-for-rule-of-law">leadership de la Roumanie nuise</a> au projet européen. À quoi devons-nous nous attendre ?</p>
<h2>Quelques leaders pro-européens…</h2>
<p>Il convient d’examiner de plus près la politique et la société roumaines dans son ensemble. Le régime est <a href="https://portal.cor.europa.eu/divisionpowers/countries/MembersNLP/Romania/Pages/default.aspx">semi-présidentiel</a> avec un président élu au suffrage universel qui jouit de prérogatives importantes dans la politique étrangère du pays. Il est notamment le principal interlocuteur lors des sommets de l’UE ou de l’OTAN. C’est pourquoi de nombreux Européens connaissent probablement Klaus Iohannis, issu de la minorité allemande de Transylvanie, qui a remporté les élections présidentielles de 2014 et brigue un nouveau mandat cette année.</p>
<p>Il y a quelques mois, il a été retenu comme successeur potentiel de Donald Tusk à la tête du Conseil européen, en raison de ses origines de l’Est, de sa position pro-européenne et de son allégeance aux valeurs fondamentales de l’UE. Plus récemment, il a été l’<a href="https://www.nineoclock.ro/2019/01/22/president-iohannis-in-aachen-romania-to-stay-close-to-france-and-germany-in-strengthening-european/">invité spécial</a> d’Emmanuel Macron et de la <a href="https://m.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkinm-en/news/speech-by-federal-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel-at-the-signing-of-the-treaty-between-the-federal-republic-of-germany-and-the-french-republic-on-franco-german-cooperation-and-integration-in-aachen-on-22-january-2019-1572746">chancelière Angela Merkel</a> à Aix-la-Chapelle, symbole du pro-européanisme dans l’Europe postcommuniste.</p>
<p>Mais il est plutôt une exception dans les hautes sphères de la politique roumaine.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4A2Lnw3xV2Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Klaus Iohannis à la Commission européenne.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>… dans un gouvernement problématique</h2>
<p>Le Parlement et le gouvernement sont contrôlés par le Parti social-démocrate (PSD) dirigé par Liviu Dragnea et Viorica Dancila, considérée comme une protégée de Dragnea, au poste de Premier ministre. Pour de nombreux observateurs, Liviu Dragnea est un <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/21/leader-of-romanias-ruling-party-sentenced-for-corruption">symbole de la corruption</a> et du clientélisme érigés en politique d’État. Le gouvernement de Viorica Dancila est jugé inefficace, voire incompétent, en raison de multiples revirements, qu’il s’agisse de sa <a href="http://business-review.eu/news/romanias-government-approves-controversed-changes-to-fiscal-code-amid-protests-152178">politique budgétaire</a> ou des nombreuses <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2018/08/01/romanians-fear-pm-s-gaffes-are-damaging-country-s-credibility-07-31-2018/">gaffes publiques</a> de la première ministre.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=951&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=951&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=951&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liviu Dragnea, en 2014, est à la tête du parti social-démocrate roumain et est accusé de diriger un État dans l’État.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liviu_Dragnea#/media/File:Victor_Ponta_la_semnarea_declaratiei_politice_privind_infiintarea_USL_2.0_-_14.11_(3)_(15621867427)_(cropped).jpg">Partidul Social Democrat/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cependant, le PSD <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/11/romanias-left-takes-big-lead-in-parliamentary-election-exit-polls">a confortablement gagné</a> les élections législatives de 2016 et remportera probablement la majorité des sièges en mai ainsi que les élections locales et générales de 2020, compte tenu de l’opposition plutôt fragile et de l’électorat fidèle du PSD.</p>
<p>En revanche, le parti n’est pas ouvertement <a href="https://fr.euronews.com/2018/05/09/un-euroscepticisme-croissant">eurosceptique</a> comme le PiS en Pologne ou le Fidesz en Hongrie. Liviu Dragnea ne prétend pas que la Roumanie est une sorte de berceau de la civilisation européenne, actuellement menacée, voire détruite, par les <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/Viktor_Orban">migrants</a>. Il ne flirte pas non plus de trop près avec la Russie.</p>
<h2>Quand l’Europe de l’Ouest effraie</h2>
<p>Mais le PSD n’hésite pas à tester des <a href="https://www.romania-insider.com/liviu-dragnea-multinationals-rising-inflation/">slogans plus agressifs</a> à l’égard des étrangers : des Occidentaux. Ces derniers pourraient constituer une menace pour la souveraineté ou l’économie roumaine. De plus, le solide soutien électoral dont il jouit lui permet de neutraliser toute critique, <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/facing-criticism-romanias-strongman-dragnea-denounces-assassination-plot/">interne</a> ou <a href="https://www.romania-insider.com/liviu-dragnea-false-information/">externe</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.governmenteuropa.eu/romanian-judicial-reform-europarl/91135/">Cette attitude</a> témoigne d’une approche problématique du système judiciaire.</p>
<p>La quasi-totalité des initiatives du parti sont prises pour entraver la lutte contre la corruption. C’est en fait le principal <a href="https://english.hotnews.ro/stiri-top_news-22113749-european-commission-report-romanian-justice-monitoring-continue-2018-proposed-changes-national-law-would-harm-independence-judiciary-romanian-officials-react.htm">point de friction avec la Commission européenne</a> et certains des plus importants gouvernements occidentaux. C’est pourquoi <a href="https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/dutch-pm-says-not-yet-to-romanias-accession-to-schengen/">certains États comme les Pays-Bas</a> hésitent à permettre à la Roumanie de rejoindre l’espace Schengen.</p>
<h2>Une question de coordination et non de leadership</h2>
<p>Le gouvernement social-démocrate de Viorica Dancila assure aujourd’hui la présidence tournante de l’UE. De nombreuses voix au sein de l’Union, au sein de l’opposition politique au PSD ou de la société civile et le <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/romanian-president-says-country-unprepared-for-eu-presidency/29596673.html">président Iohannis lui-même</a> ont publiquement affirmé que le gouvernement était incapable de faire son travail correctement ce semestre.</p>
<p>Mais cette critique est simplement politique et sans fondement réel. La présidence tournante est une affaire relativement technique, une question de coordination, de gestion, dirons-nous, pas de leadership au sens visionnaire du terme.</p>
<p>De plus, les <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/2018-12-10/broken-europe">problèmes</a> que la Roumanie devra affronter pendant son mandat se sont accumulés au cours des dernières années. Le pays n’en est pas responsable et personne ne pense qu’elle va aggraver la situation ou la résoudre. En outre, les grandes questions à l’ordre du jour dépendent de Jean‑Claude Junker, Donald Tusk, Angela Merkel ou Emmanuel Macron, et non de Klaus Iohannis, Liviu Dragnea ou Viorica Dancila.</p>
<h2>Le manque de confiance est un gros défi à relever</h2>
<p>Le début des négociations pour la prochaine période budgétaire de sept ans, qui débutera en 2021, est sans doute la question la plus importante à l’ordre du jour de la présidence roumaine. De par sa position, la Roumanie peut jouer un rôle dans le <a href="https://euobserver.com/opinion/141757">débat</a> sur la règle de droit comme critère d’admissibilité au financement de l’UE, elle peut aussi mettre davantage l’accent sur les questions de développement spécifiques aux États membres d’Europe centrale et orientale, ou sur le financement de pays voisins de l’UE dans la région, notamment la Moldavie, un allié dans cette partie de l’Europe.</p>
<p>La Roumanie entretient de bonnes relations avec tous ses voisins, quelle que soit leur position vis-à-vis de l’UE. N’oublions pas que les Roumains forment la nation la plus pro-européenne de l’Europe centrale et orientale, et que nombre des manifestations anti-gouvernementales de ces dernières années ont intégré une <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-romania-protests/thousands-of-romanians-form-eu-flag-at-anti-government-rally-idUSKBN1650WU">forte composante pro-UE</a>. En effet, 65 % des Roumains s’opposeraient <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1026369/romania-leave-european-union-roexit-daniel-dragomir-brexit">à un « Roexit »</a> en cas de référendum, selon les dernières données Eurostat.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Manifestations contre le gouvernement social-démocrate et les affaires de corruption en 2017, Euronews.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ce qui reste néanmoins problématique avec la démocratie roumaine, c’est le très faible niveau de confiance des citoyens envers les institutions fondamentales de toute démocratie représentative. La confiance dans les partis politiques et le Parlement tourne généralement autour de 10 %, souvent moins. Cela se reflète dans le très faible taux de participation à toute élection impliquant un vote de parti. La <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/trust">confiance horizontale</a> – le taux de confiance entre les personnes – est également très faible.</p>
<p>Globalement, le soutien durable à la démocratie représentative et, implicitement, à l’UE fait défaut. Et, sans une base solide, toute construction, même celle qui s’est faite sur plusieurs décennies, comme dans le cas de l’UE, risque de s’effondrer. C’est peut-être le plus grand défi auquel l’Europe est actuellement confrontée.</p>
<p>Cependant, étant donné l’orientation largement pro-européenne de la population roumaine, qui empêche probablement les politiciens de faire fausse route, la Roumanie est davantage un atout pour l’Union européenne qu’un problème.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Traduit de l’anglais par Karine Degliame-O’Keeffe pour <a href="http://www.fastforword.fr">Fast for Word</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Jiglau reçoit des fonds du Conseil national roumain pour la recherche scientifique, de la Fondation Romania One aux États-Unis, de la Fondation Hanns Seidel, de l'Open Society Institute. Il est affilié au Centre pour l'étude de la démocratie, un groupe de réflexion basé à Cluj, associé à la Faculté des sciences politiques de l'Université Babes-Bolyai.</span></em></p>Avec la Roumanie à la barre de l’UE, certains redoutent une période chaotique. Mais il n’y a pas de raison de (trop) s’inquiéter.George Jiglau, Lecturer in Political Science, Babes Bolyai University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1112942019-02-20T21:10:13Z2019-02-20T21:10:13ZShould we trust Romania at the head of the European Union council?<p>Let us take a moment to look at the state of the EU: the UK is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/15/world/europe/may-brexit-vote-fail.html">struggling to leave</a>; a fresh economic recession is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/raulelizalde/2018/12/17/another-warning-that-a-2019-recession-is-coming/">on the horizon</a>; and southern EU members have yet to find <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2018/09/26/new-low-italian-migration-policies">sustainable ways</a> to accommodate migrants reaching their shores. There are also complications in the European energy field, with Germany and Russia pushing on with their <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-russia-pipeline/tough-to-stop-nord-stream-2-now-its-being-built-eus-oettinger-idUSKCN1OR0YF">Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline</a>. Many states are tormented by populism and euroscepticism that creeped into parliaments and even governments, and thus directly into the EU’s decision-making structure. </p>
<p>With all these thorny topics on the table, <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/presidency-council-eu/">Romania is now in charge of the EU Council’s rotating presidency</a>. Several European leaders expressed fears that, given Romania’s domestic political climate, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/30/romania-to-take-over-eu-presidency-amid-fears-for-rule-of-law">its leadership might harm the EU</a>.</p>
<h2>Some pro-European leaders…</h2>
<p>In such a context, it’s worth taking a closer look at Romanian politics and its society more generally. The country has a <a href="https://portal.cor.europa.eu/divisionpowers/countries/MembersNLP/Romania/Pages/default.aspx">semipresidential government</a>, with a directly elected president who enjoys significant prerogatives in the country’s foreign policy. For example, the president is the primary partner with the EU and NATO summits. That’s why many Europeans may be familiar with the figure of Klaus Iohannis, who won the 2014 presidential elections and is seeking re-election later this year.</p>
<p>A few months ago, Iohannis was shortlisted as a potential successor to Donald Tusk at the helm of the European Council, given his Eastern European background yet solid pro-European stance and allegiance to core EU values. Recently, he was the <a href="https://www.nineoclock.ro/2019/01/22/president-iohannis-in-aachen-romania-to-stay-close-to-france-and-germany-in-strengthening-european/">special guest</a> of President Macron and <a href="https://m.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkinm-en/news/speech-by-federal-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel-at-the-signing-of-the-treaty-between-the-federal-republic-of-germany-and-the-french-republic-on-franco-german-cooperation-and-integration-in-aachen-on-22-january-2019-1572746">Chancellor Merkel</a> in Aachen, as a symbol of pro-Europeanism in post-communist Europe.</p>
<p>But Iohannis is also an exception in high-level Romanian politics.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4A2Lnw3xV2Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Klaud Iohannis at the European Commission.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>… in an problematic government</h2>
<p>Romania’s Parliament and government are controlled by the Social-Democratic Party (PSD), led by Liviu Dragnea, with Viorica Dancila (seen as a protégée of Dragnea) as prime minister. Dragnea is considered by many as a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/21/leader-of-romanias-ruling-party-sentenced-for-corruption">symbol of corruption and clientelism</a> transposed into state policy, while Dancila’s government is seen to be ineffective, even incompetent, due to the multiple shifts in <a href="http://business-review.eu/news/romanias-government-approves-controversial-changes-to-fiscal-code-amid-protests-152178">budget policy</a>, among others. At a personal level, Dancila is often distinguished by <a href="https://balkaninsight.com/2018/08/01/romanians-fear-pm-s-gaffes-are-damaging-country-s-credibility-07-31-2018/">public communication blunders</a>, which are seen as damaging Romania’s credibility.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=757&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=951&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=951&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257892/original/file-20190208-174867-4b4ihu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=951&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liviu Dragnea, leader of the Social Democratic Party of Romania (2014).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liviu_Dragnea#/media/File:Victor_Ponta_la_semnarea_declaratiei_politice_privind_infiintarea_USL_2.0_-_14.11_(3)_(15621867427)_(cropped).jpg">Partidul Social Democrat/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nevertheless, PSD <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/11/romanias-left-takes-big-lead-in-parliamentary-election-exit-polls">comfortably won</a> the 2016 parliamentary elections and is likely to win the largest share of Romanian MEPs in May and the local and general elections in 2020, especially given the rather frail opposition and PSD’s faithful electorate. </p>
<h2>Anti-Western European sentiment</h2>
<p>PSD is not an openly eurosceptic party, such as Poland’s PiS or Hungary’s Fidesz. Dragnea does not claim that Romania is some kind of cradle of European civilisation being threatened by immigrants, nor is he particularly warm to Russia. Still, the party often <a href="https://www.romania-insider.com/liviu-dragnea-multinationals-rising-inflation/">toys with slogans</a> that express anger toward foreigners – Westerners, rather – who might be a threat to Romania’s sovereignty or its economy. </p>
<p>PSD’s solid electoral support allows it to simply ignore any criticism, be it from the <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/facing-criticism-romanias-strongman-dragnea-denounces-assassination-plot/">inside</a> or <a href="https://www.romania-insider.com/liviu-dragnea-false-information/">outside</a>. <a href="https://www.governmenteuropa.eu/romanian-judicial-reform-europarl/91135/">This attitude</a> shows a problematic approach to the justice system.</p>
<p>Almost every initiative of the party is regarded as a mean to cripple the fight against corruption. This in fact has been the main <a href="https://english.hotnews.ro/stiri-top_news-22113749-european-commission-report-romanian-justice-monitoring-continue-2018-proposed-changes-national-law-would-harm-independence-judiciary-romanian-officials-react.htm">battlefield with the European Commission</a> and some of the important Western governments and this is still why <a href="https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/dutch-pm-says-not-yet-to-romanias-accession-to-schengen/">some states such as the Netherlands</a> are reluctant to allow Romania to join the Schengen area.</p>
<h2>The EU presidency is a matter of coordination not leadership</h2>
<p>It is Dancila’s PSD government that is mainly in charge of the rotating EU Presidency. Many voices in the EU, within the political or the civil society opposition to PSD, and <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/romanian-president-says-country-unprepared-for-eu-presidency/29596673.html">President Iohannis himself</a>, have publicly claimed the country’s government is incapable of properly doing its job.</p>
<p>But much of this criticism is simply politics and rather ungrounded. The rotating presidency is a rather technical affair. It’s a matter of coordination – management if you like – rather than leadership in a visionary sense.</p>
<p>In addition, much of the trouble Romania will deal with during its stay in the driver’s seat has <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/2018-12-10/broken-europe">piled up over the last few years</a> . It has not been Romania’s fault and no one should expect the country to make the situation worse or fix it. Also, many of the big issues on the agenda depend on Junker, Tusk, Merkel or Macron, not on Iohannis, Dragnea or Dancila.</p>
<h2>Lack of trust is a big challenge</h2>
<p>Arguably the largest issue on the agenda of the Romanian presidency is to start the negotiations for the next seven-year budget period, to start in 2021. From its position, we can play a role in <a href="https://euobserver.com/opinion/141757">the debate</a> whether rule of law should be a criteria for receiving EU funding; we can put more emphasis on development issues specific to the CEE member states or on more funding for EU neighbours in the region, perhaps with an emphasis on Moldova – so kind of an advocate for this part of Europe.</p>
<p>To its credit, Romania has maintained a good relation with all its neighbours, regardless of their stance on the EU. Let’s not forget Romanians are the most pro-European nation in the CEE and many of the anti-government protests we have seen in the last years included a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-romania-protests/thousands-of-romanians-form-eu-flag-at-anti-government-rally-idUSKBN1650WU">strong pro-EU component</a>. According to the latest Eurostat, 65% of Romanians would <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1026369/romania-leave-european-union-roexit-daniel-dragomir-brexit">vote against a “Roexit”</a> referendum if one took place.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IbXAY5flv1c?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Protests against the PSD government and its corruption in 2017 (Euronews).</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What is nevertheless problematic with the Romanian democracy is the very low level of trust in the fundamental institutions of representative democracy. Trust in political parties and in the Parliament is usually around 10%, often lower. This is reflected in the very low turnout in any elections that involves some kind of party vote. <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/trust">Horizontal trust</a> – how much people trust each other – is also quite low.</p>
<p>Overall, the sustainable support for representative democracy and, implicitly, for the EU, is lacking. And without a solid base, any construction, even one that has been developed across decades, such as the EU, is at risk of crumbling. This, perhaps, is the biggest challenge Europe is now facing.</p>
<p>Yet given the Romanian people’s largely pro-European orientation, which probably prevents politicians to go astray as well, Romania is rather an asset, not a problem, for the European Union.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111294/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Jiglau receives funding from the Romanian National Council for Scientific Research, from the Romania One Foundation in the USA, from the Hanns Seidel Foundation, from the Open Society Institute. He is affiliated with the Center for the Study of Democracy, a think tank based in Cluj, associated to the Faculty of Political Science at Babes-Bolyai University.</span></em></p>With Romania at the helm of the EU, many fear that there’s a bumpy ride ahead. But there’s no need to worry (too much).George Jiglau, Lecturer in Political Science, Babes Bolyai University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728872017-02-27T07:42:22Z2017-02-27T07:42:22ZThieves in the night: can a slogan trigger real improvement in Romanian politics?<p>It is rather unusual for a country like Romania to catch the eye of the <a href="http://time.com/4660860/romania-protests-corruption-problem/">international public</a> to the extent it has in the past month.</p>
<p>An unprecedented wave of protests saw thousands of Romanians take to the streets regularly – night and day – despite the cold, reaching more than <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/06/europe/romania-protests-update/">600,000 people on February 5</a>. </p>
<p>That peak day was crucial: thanks to people’s continuous involvement, the government has <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/11de47e4-ebc9-11e6-930f-061b01e23655">backtracked on a law</a>, Decree 13, that could have weakened <a href="https://apnews.com/3a77298d90f842519e9dfa13f57d1a19/Romanian-govt-repeals-law-that-goes-easy-on-corruption?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP">anti-corruption legislation</a>, and made life much easier for corrupt <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/01/romania-corrupt-jail-belong-170130111529347.html">officials and politicians</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157902/original/image-20170222-6409-jz1k2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157902/original/image-20170222-6409-jz1k2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157902/original/image-20170222-6409-jz1k2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157902/original/image-20170222-6409-jz1k2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157902/original/image-20170222-6409-jz1k2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157902/original/image-20170222-6409-jz1k2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157902/original/image-20170222-6409-jz1k2y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Both Liviu Dragnea (leader of PSD) and Victor Ponta (former PM) have been charged with corruption and fraud.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/81/Liviu_Dragnea%2C_Victor_Ponta%2C_reuniunea_BPN_a_PSD_-_06.01.2014_%2811797838516%29.jpg">Partidul Social Democrat from Romania/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But is there more to it? After the U-turn from the government, Romanians remain uneasy and restless. While parliament has approved a public referendum, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/13/romania-approves-anti-corruption-referendum">initiated by President Klaus Iohannis</a> as a tool to show public support for anti-corruption laws, it will do little to appease those who are demanding that such political moves never take place again.</p>
<h2>A profound discontent with elites</h2>
<p>Decree 13 has indeed <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/romania-protests-corruption-decriminalisation-decree-government-law-bucharest-a7560156.html">triggered</a> something deeper within Romanian society. It has been seen as a symbol of everything <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/world/europe/romania-bucharest-corruption-protests.html?_r=0">that is wrong with Romanian politics</a>, starting with a profound discontent with political elites. </p>
<p>Romanians blame the government, which was formed in early January <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/romania-government-idUSL5N1ET2RF">by a coalition</a> of the Social-Democrats (Partidul Social Democrat, PSD) and a centre-right liberal party, (Alianta Liberalilor si Democratilor din Romania, ALDE). The current PSD leader, <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/01/romania-corrupt-jail-belong-170130111529347.html">Liviu Dragnea</a>, who holds a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-romania-corruption-idUSKBN0O00J820150515">suspended jail sentence</a>, would have benefited from the law. </p>
<p>When <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/01/romanians-protests-emergency-law-prisoner-pardons-corruption">people took to the streets</a>, the most iconic slogan was: “Stop stealing at night like thieves!”</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/H9gwzLPn3wM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Stop stealing at night like thieves!’ shouts the crowd on February 5th.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The slogan is meaningful because it captures the problematic essence of this law. It was passed as <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/2017/02/protests-surge-romania-decriminalises-corruption-170202061853852.html">an “emergency decree” at night, on January 31st</a>, despite the <a href="http://www.rri.ro/en_gb/the_romanian_presidents_speech_in_parliament-2559668">president’s disapproval and interference</a>, snubbing several protests organised days before and repeated calls from civil society against the measure. It came as a shock after <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/the-dna-of-romanias-anti-corruption-success-eu-transparency-international">years of strong legislation</a> to prevent corruption.</p>
<p>The sensitive topic and the perceived arrogance of the PSD-led government in adopting the decree in secrecy formed the perfect package to ignite an already active culture of protests and discontent.</p>
<h2>Romania’s troubled society</h2>
<p>Protests have always been a regular feature of <a href="https://fr.scribd.com/doc/146742678/Henry-F-Carey-Romania-Since-1989-Politics-Economics-And-Society-2004">post-communist Romania</a>. </p>
<p>People took to the streets in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/24/romania-anti-government-austerity-protests">January 2012</a> against an austerity drive; in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/14/romanian-village-blocks-canadian-firm-mining-for-gold">September 2013</a> against a gold mining project; before 2014’s <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-romania-election-protests-idUSKCN0IY29920141114">second round of presidential elections</a>; and in 2015, against then-prime minister <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/04/romanian-government-resigns-nightclub-fire-victor-ponta">Victor Ponta</a>, who was accused of corruption and held accountable for a tragic fire that killed 64 young people in a club.</p>
<p>This series of protests are rooted in Romanians’ disenchantment with their political institutions and their representatives. The two main institutional pillars – the political parties and the parliament – have <a href="http://www.e-migration.ro/jims/Vol10_No2_2016/JIMS_Vol10_No2_2016_pp85_108_TATAR.pdf">the lowest level of trust</a> compared to all other institutions. </p>
<p>In the past decade, public trust has never gone above 15% and it sometimes drops to as low as 6%. Politicians are regarded as the root of corruption that alters other key sectors of daily life, such as the health-care and education systems.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157908/original/image-20170222-6436-173n44z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157908/original/image-20170222-6436-173n44z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157908/original/image-20170222-6436-173n44z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157908/original/image-20170222-6436-173n44z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157908/original/image-20170222-6436-173n44z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157908/original/image-20170222-6436-173n44z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157908/original/image-20170222-6436-173n44z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Romania faces numerous social and environmental issues.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/128539140@N03/16159672577/">Jake Stimpson/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A divided electorate</h2>
<p>The protests raise one legitimate point of counterattack for the PSD, which claims that protesters do not value the result of the election in December (when the party got more than 45% of the vote) and that many of the people on the street did not even vote. </p>
<p>While there is no sociological tool to measure the votes among anti-PSD electorate, it is obvious that the turnout at the election was low. The lowest turnout (less than a third) was <a href="https://pressone.ro/parlamentare-2016-tinerii-chiulesc-rezultatul-e-decis-de-segmentul-45-64-de-ani">among 18 to 34-year-olds</a>, who are well represented in the protests. </p>
<p>Low turnouts largely favour parties with a stable and loyal electorate like PSD’s. </p>
<p>In this context, many anti-PSD voices seem to focus on PSD voters, blaming them for the way their party behaves. The frustration of anti-PSD Romanians – younger, better educated, richer – is in the contrast to <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/334085924/Alegeri-parlamentare-2016-Analiza-profilului-votantilor#from_embed">those who vote for PSD</a> – older, with lower education, poorer.</p>
<p>The former feel PSD voters are easily manipulated, uninformed, and incapable of understanding the real issues that the Romanian society is facing. </p>
<p>Some of the main media outlets <a href="http://www.paginademedia.ro/2017/02/protestele-pe-posturile-de-stiri-pasnice-la-digi-24-violente-la-romania-tv-incitari-si-tehnocrati-in-strada-la-antena-3">cultivate this cleavage</a> in Romanian society by issuing divisive messages about “the other side”, depending on their political orientation.</p>
<p>For instance, the TV news stations favouring the PSD (such as Romania TV or Antena 3) broadcast conspiracy theories claiming that <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/10-days-that-shook-romania-protests-revolution-corruption-decree/">protesters were paid</a> by foreigners, pointing mainly to George Soros (<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1993/07/finance-the-unifying-theme/305148/">known for his support</a> of various democratic movements in Eastern Europe), while the other side claims <a href="http://www.hotnews.ro/stiri-esential-21575048-cine-sunt-ultrasii-dinamovisti-din-piata-coregrafia-pentru-lansarea-lui-ponta-legaturile-oprea.htm">PSD is infiltrated by violent individuals</a>.</p>
<h2>Different voting behaviours</h2>
<p>But the focus should be elsewhere. PSD’s electorate is quite stable. Regardless of the party’s behaviour, <a href="http://alegeri.roaep.ro/">the election results</a> in the last decade show that there is constantly a segment of 3 or 3.5 million citizens who are easy to mobilise and convince for the party. </p>
<p>Perhaps they do represent the more conservative, more socially insecure fragment of Romanian society. But, still, these citizens have the right to vote, the right to formulate opinions and to act according to them. From a certain perspective, their discipline is rather a strength of representative democracy, as they are citizens who wish to play by the rules and make their voice heard, at least when it comes to <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/334085924/Alegeri-parlamentare-2016-Analiza-profilului-votantilor#from_embed">voting</a>. </p>
<p>The anti-PSD electorate, on the other hand, is much more problematic. To some it is a puzzle why <a href="http://www.polito.ubbcluj.ro/romanianelectoraldata/elections-results-romania">PSD keeps losing presidential elections and keeps winning parliamentary and local elections</a>. </p>
<p>The explanations are not difficult to find. Wherever there are direct elections for the president, citizens are more aware of their relevance. In 2014, <a href="http://alegeri.roaep.ro/?alegeri=alegeri-presedintele-romaniei-2014">the turnout</a> was 53% in the first round and 64% in the second one. When it comes to voting for parties and for the parliament, which have low rates of trust from the people and whose crucial role is somewhat overlooked, turnouts are lower, especially among the <a href="http://eastblog.univie.ac.at/2017/01/23/the-romanian-parliamentary-vote-from-protest-to-protest">anti-PSD electorate</a>.</p>
<p>In other words, if this bubble of 15% to 20% of the electorate – visible in the presidential elections and probably present at the protests – mobilises in the parliamentary elections as well, the PSD would never reach this kind of status and influence. It would be an influential party, by all means, constantly located at around 30% to 35%, but it would not have the same kind of dominant position. </p>
<h2>What do Romanians want?</h2>
<p>So what can come after this new wave of protests? It is essential for Romania to keep a sound image for its Western allies. The commitment to the fight against corruption and towards Euro-Atlantic democratic values has been the backbone of <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/central-europe/opinion/why-the-west-wants-romania-to-be-less-corrupt/">Romania’s international reputation</a> in the past decade.</p>
<p>This matters beyond the country’s borders. After 2010, the region has witnessed a growth of <a href="http://www.ascn.ch/en/Events/Workshop-Munich-2016/mainColumnParagraphs/01/download_website.pdf">illiberal tendencies</a> in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Turkey. </p>
<p>The security climate <a href="https://theconversation.com/eastern-europe-is-shunning-liberal-democracy-but-itll-come-back-in-the-end-58329">is at continuous risk</a>, given <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-world-order-takes-shape-in-the-wake-of-a-resurgent-russia-70676">Russia’s increased assertiveness</a> to regain its spheres of influence but also the threat of terrorism and the general uncertainty generated by political instability in key <a href="http://connections-qj.org/article/post-soviet-states-between-russia-and-eu-reviving-geopolitical-competition-dual-perspective">Western states</a> that used to be the guardians of the region’s security.</p>
<p>Despite the intervention of Western governments and <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/effective-justice/rule-law/assistance-bulgaria-and-romania-under-cvm/reports-progress-bulgaria-and-romania_en">the European Union</a> to <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2017/02/01/eu-commission-warns-romania-against-backtracking-on-corruption">sanction</a> the behaviour of politicians, overall Romania’s image has been strengthened. Not by the politicians, but by the reaction of the masses. It was seen by many as <a href="http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/hannah-thoburn/people-power-rise-against-corruption-romania">a lesson of democracy</a> or the purest form of manifestation of <a href="http://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/editos-analyses/0211780855807-la-lecon-anti-corruption-des-citoyens-roumains-2063200.php">democratic spirit</a>. </p>
<p>One must not overlook the strong, visible pro-EU component of the protests: many people during the protests came with EU flags, shouting “EU, we love you!” It demonstrated a powerful desire to protect the values associated with the EU, at a time when <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-european-union-could-still-fall-apart-54251">they are under strong critcism</a> in Western member states.</p>
<p>For now, protesters have reached their goal. But the energy of the protests now need to be focused on <a href="http://democracycenter.ro/english/publications/research-reports/reforma-mecanismelor-de-reprezentare-politica-cetateniilor-romania">improving the tools of democratic representation and the political elite</a>.</p>
<p>Voting in large numbers in the parliamentary elections is one easy solution. But the solutions that would truly change the political game in the long run need to address a range of laws, on election rules, candidates and party funding, or how far the government can go with its decrees. </p>
<p>Whether the protesters like it or not, the fundamental decisions lie in the hands of the same politicians whose decisions forced them to take to the streets and who acquired power through free and fair elections with a low turnout. It is a paradox of representative democracy that Romanians - politicians and protesters - must learn to work with.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72887/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Jiglau receives funding from the Romanian National Council for Scientific Research, from the Romania One Foundation in the USA, from the Hanns Seidel Foundation, from the Open Society Institute. He is affiliated with the Center for the Study of Democracy, a think tank based in Cluj, associated to the Faculty of Political Science at Babes-Bolyai University.</span></em></p>Romania’s ongoing protests against a bold move by the government to decriminalise corruption has highlighted greater social and political issues.George Jiglau, Lecturer in Political Science, Babes Bolyai University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.