tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/bocconi-university-3019/articles
Bocconi University
2024-03-19T18:17:39Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/226165
2024-03-19T18:17:39Z
2024-03-19T18:17:39Z
The EU should stop ‘westsplaining’ and listen to its smaller eastern members – they saw the Ukraine war coming
<p>It’s rare for the words of Lithuanian government officials to make the top of the news outside the country. Lithuania’s views aren’t even a top priority among its allies. But perhaps it’s time that changed. </p>
<p>Following February’s Munich security conference, Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warned:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We don’t lack capacity, we lack the political will and urgency necessary to support Ukraine and maintain our collective security. Russia, on the other hand, has the will to destroy Ukraine and reestablish the Russian Empire. When will we start using our capacity to deter this?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Lithuania is a small country of just 3 million people, so perhaps we wouldn’t expect it to lead Europe’s response to Russian aggression. However, the Soviet occupation of Lithuania, imbued with persecution, repression and a totalitarian regime, are deeply understood even by young generations. It would seem like common sense to give greater weight to the views of Lithuania and its neighbours than other nations. So why doesn’t this happen? </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1759271051177943311"}"></div></p>
<p>Vytautas Landsbergis, who was formerly the first president of the country’s parliament after independence from the USSR, predicted this war as long ago as 2008. Interviewed by a European news <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDQ3a0aNSqE">website</a> about the “situation in Georgia”, he bluntly responded: “It is not the situation in Georgia only; it is a very bad situation in Europe, and for Europe’s future, and very promising badly … Who is next after Georgia? … The next is Ukraine.”</p>
<p>This view stood in stark contrast to what the EU foreign ministers agreed upon at the time when they expressed “grave concern” over the war. They criticised Russia’s disproportionate response but pressed Georgia to sign the six-point ceasefire agreement, which basically allowed Russian “security forces” to implement “additional security measures”. The ceasefire agreement led to the Russian occupation of 20% of Georgia’s territory, which continues to this day. </p>
<p>In 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea, other European Union states agreed on certain sanctions but continued all the while to build their energy partnerships with the aggressor. Lithuania instead built its own liquefied natural gas terminal, named “independence”, which allowed it to break from its dependence on Russian gas.</p>
<p>In 2015, when EU countries were cautious to name the Russian Federation as an aggressor in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine, the Lithuanian ambassador to the UN clearly <a href="https://urm.lt/default/en/news/lithuania-in-the-un-security-council-minsk-accords-must-be-respected-by-all-parties-including-russia">stated</a>: “Russia is a direct party to this conflict and bears the primary responsibility for the conflict that is tearing into Ukraine’s flesh.”</p>
<h2>How to respond to Russia?</h2>
<p>By 2022, Russia had launched a full-scale attack against Ukraine. Words of support came from every direction but concrete support was less forthcoming. During the first days of the war, <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/">Germany</a> refused to send weapons to Ukraine and even prevented Estonia from sending its old howitzer artillery weapons by withholding approval.</p>
<p>Lithuania, meanwhile, along with Latvia, Estonia and Poland, were sounding the alarm about the threat the situation posed to the <a href="https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1496706310221574149?s=20">rest of the region</a> and called for Europe to support Ukraine “with every means available”. For many in the region, Europe should commit unambiguously to helping Ukraine win the war. </p>
<p>Until recently, even French president Emmanuel Macron was suggesting that Ukraine should compromise on some of its sovereignty to accommodate Putin’s demands. Such comments were coldly received in Baltic and eastern European states. </p>
<p>When Macron changed his strategy to say that he did not rule out sending troops to Ukraine, he faced <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/27/sweden-rules-out-sending-troops-to-ukraine-after-nato-membership-agreed">backlash</a> from several European capitals. However, he found an ally in Lithuania.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A map of Europe with Lithuania highlighted." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582840/original/file-20240319-22-yui65c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582840/original/file-20240319-22-yui65c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582840/original/file-20240319-22-yui65c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582840/original/file-20240319-22-yui65c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582840/original/file-20240319-22-yui65c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582840/original/file-20240319-22-yui65c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582840/original/file-20240319-22-yui65c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Can you point to Lithuania on a map? Vladimir Putin certainly can.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuania#/media/File:EU-Lithuania.svg">Wikipedia/NuclearVacuum</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Entrenched westsplaining</h2>
<p>This historical perspective highlights the stark difference of opinion between countries like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and the Czech Republic as compared to western European countries such as France or Germany. This suggests that “westsplaining” still prevails in the European Union.</p>
<p>Eastern European candidates have never been chosen for crucial roles like the Nato secretary general, for example. In fact, they are even <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-eastern-european-union-rutte-secretary-general-commission-russia-ukraine-war-defense/">briefed against</a>, including by former European Commission vice president <a href="https://wnl.tv/2023/11/15/estse-premier-kaja-kallas-concurrent-voor-mark-rutte-bij-opvolging-navo-topman-stoltenberg/">Frans Timmermans</a> and at least one <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-eastern-european-union-rutte-secretary-general-commission-russia-ukraine-war-defense/">Commission official</a> off the record. </p>
<p>Western Europe still does not view eastern Europe and the Baltics as equal partners. As a result, the EU – dominated by the west – still doesn’t truly perceive Russia as a direct threat to European security.</p>
<p>In a positive sign of recognition, EU Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/ov/speech_22_5493">mentioned</a> in her annual state of the union address in 2022: “We should have listened to the voices inside our union – in Poland, in the Baltics, and all across central and eastern Europe.”</p>
<p>This fleeting moment of acknowledgement should form the basis of a much more meaningful debate about who makes the decision in the EU and on what basis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226165/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Viktoriia Lapa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Lithuania doesn’t often set the agenda, yet it has been warning that Russia would invade Ukraine since 2008.
Viktoriia Lapa, Lecturer, Institute for European Policymaking, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221908
2024-03-07T14:28:20Z
2024-03-07T14:28:20Z
Seven reasons more female leaders would be a positive step for the climate
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574647/original/file-20240209-18-frd1d3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former prime minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern prioritised environmental issues during her tenure. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brussels-belgium-25th-january-2019-zealands-1294621573">Alexandros Michailidis/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Initially, everyone on the organising committee for the COP29 global climate summit was male. In response, the <a href="https://www.shechangesclimate.org/">She Changes Climate</a> campaign group stated that “climate change affects the whole world, not half of it”. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/15/cop29-climate-summit-committee-appointed-with-28-men-and-no-women-azerbaijan">backlash</a> followed and women have since been included to enhance representation within the committee. </p>
<p>A gender-balanced committee is not only a matter of justice and representation, but it also represents a strategic choice. Addressing the complex global challenge of climate change requires diverse perspectives and experiences. Female leaders can bring different qualities to the table. </p>
<h2>1. Caring about nature</h2>
<p>If leaders care about the planet, climate policies will reflect that. <a href="https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/">Data shows that</a> as citizens, women tend to care for nature and the environment more than men and they tend to be more responsible for actions which may impact the climate change. </p>
<p>According to this <a href="https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/">European Social Survey</a> data, the share of women who agreed that it’s important to care for nature and the environment is higher than the share of men in all European countries. The difference is not large, ranging from 7% in Austria to 0.3% in France, but the pattern is consistent across all countries. </p>
<p>When people were asked whether they feel personally responsible for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, 52% women agreed compared with 48% of men. More than 63% of women agreed that limiting their energy use reduced greenhouse gas emissions, compared to just 36% of men. </p>
<h2>2. Wanting to take action</h2>
<p>When first appointed to their roles of prime minister in New Zealand and Finland respectively, Jacinda Ardern and Sanna Marin <a href="https://www.ipu.org/news/news-in-brief/2022-07/climate-action-these-seven-women-mps-are-leading-way">both declared</a> that climate change was an emergency and announced actions for their country which influenced the global efforts to mitigate climate change. </p>
<p>Female policymakers agree more than men on the need of measures for the environment, according to data from the <a href="https://www.comparativecandidates.org/">Comparative Candidate Survey </a>. Among politicians who ran for the national parliament elections, 83% of women believed that stronger measures should be taken to protect the environment, compared to 75% of men. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/gender-equality-and-public-policy/63D91B648D83CB692D3C7195D8E94088">own research</a> shows that the difference between men and women is significant even when we control for individual characteristics, including age, ideology, education, religion, occupation and number of children.</p>
<h2>3. Making change happen</h2>
<p>Firms with more women in decision-making positions tend to perform better on environmental and sustainable outcomes. I <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/gender-equality-and-public-policy/63D91B648D83CB692D3C7195D8E94088">found that</a> companies with three or more female directors perform better on specific measures of environmental performance. </p>
<p>The share of managers also matters: a higher female presence in managerial positions is associated with better environmental performance. This is measured by an indicator which considers different factors: pollution of air, land and water and the impacts on biodiversity, the use of non-renewable energy, water, land, forests, minerals, the production of waste and new product development efforts to remedy these problems. </p>
<h2>4. Being altruistic</h2>
<p>Men and women tend to show differences in social orientation. As American sociologist Nancy Chodorow outlined in her 1978 book, <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520221550/the-reproduction-of-mothering">The Reproduction of Mothering: Psychoanalysis and the Sociology of Gender</a>, women are directed toward the caregiver role, so they are encouraged to be more compassionate, nurturing, protective, and cooperative than men. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/116/1/293/1939030?redirectedFrom=fulltext">Experimental research</a> in 2001 confirmed that women tend to be more altruistic and socially oriented than men. </p>
<h2>5. Having more opportunities</h2>
<p>Gender roles and different opportunities may also play a role in gender differences in attitudes towards the environment. The <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08941920.2014.918235">biological availability hypothesis</a> suggests that women spend less time at work than men and more time at home, so they have more opportunities to engage in private pro-environment behaviours such as recycling and water use (although this doesn’t mean they have more free time). Women also tend to be more concerned than men about health and safety issues and this is reflected in higher levels of <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0013916596283003">environmental concerns</a>. </p>
<h2>6. Approaching risk with caution</h2>
<p>Women perceive risks differently. Women tend to be more risk averse than men, as they tend to prefer an outcome which is certain to an uncertain one associated to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-111809-125122">higher return</a>.</p>
<h2>7. Taking the long-term view</h2>
<p>When approaching climate change, women tend to offer fresh perspectives, creative problem-solving skills and inclusive leadership styles. As climate change affects everyone, our collective effort benefits from acknowledging the diverse ways in which men and women express concerns about the issues and propose actions for the future. Women tend to be more patient and willing to wait for higher <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1996-01404-001">reward in the future</a> and they care about the consequences of their actions over a longer time frame. </p>
<p>In any decision-making process, personal leadership style is a crucial factor. Gender plays a significant role in shaping that style and female leadership style tends to focus more on long-term goals. That can help drive solutions that mitigate and adapt the impact of climate change. </p>
<p>Including more women at the table at the future climate summits is an essential step towards making real change. Each of us can make the difference, as citizens, voters, business entrepreneurs and decision-makers to promote better representation and more balanced decisions, for now and for future generations.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221908/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paola Profeta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Research shows that men and women have different perspectives on climate, with huge implications in terms of policymaking. For that reason, diverse leadership is essential.
Paola Profeta, Dean for Diversity Inclusion and Sustainability, Professor of Public Economics, Director of Axa Research Lab on Gender Equality, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/223143
2024-02-27T12:41:34Z
2024-02-27T12:41:34Z
How psychology can help people live more climate-friendly lives – lessons from around the world
<p>Quick and easy interventions that inspire people to take direct climate action are the holy grail. Behavioural scientists and policymakers are keen to learn which small steps can make the biggest difference. One of the largest experiments ever conducted in climate change psychology shows that the same interventions have different outcomes depending on the specific context, and crucially, the country in which change is being driven. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adj5778">New research</a> by an international team of more than 250 scientists studied several environmental interventions and the way people responded to them in 63 countries. </p>
<p>In Austria, one of the best ways to increase effective pro-environmental behaviour, such as time spent planting trees, is to present people with information that shows climate change is already happening now, it is negatively affecting Europe and it is harmful to people nearby. This is what behavioural scientists call <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.12601">reducing psychological distance</a>. This framing makes the risks and dangers of climate change feel more immediate and relatable, which encourages people to act against it.</p>
<p>But in Germany, a country that shares a similar language, culture and long history with Austria, the same intervention had a very different outcome. Participants tended to believe less in climate change, were less likely to support climate change mitigation policies and were less likely to plant trees.</p>
<h2>The global outlook</h2>
<p>Our team tested the effectiveness of 11 strategies designed to increase climate change awareness and climate action around the globe. </p>
<p>More than 59,000 participants were shown one of 11 possible interventions designed to influence their climate change beliefs, such as writing a letter to one’s nephew or reading information about climate change as though its effect were to occur very close to the reader. Then participants were surveyed to assess their belief in climate change, support for mitigation policies and involvement in different types of environmental action, such as planting trees. </p>
<p>Overall, 86% of people surveyed believed that climate change is happening, is a dangerous problem and is largely caused by humans. Support for important climate mitigation policies was measured at an impressive 72%. </p>
<p>Another key measure was effortful behaviour: completing a tedious task, such as identifying specific number combinations, in exchange for a donation to plant a tree. More than half of the participants planted more than 300,000 trees, suggesting that most people do not question climate change, they endorse policies meant to mitigate it and are willing to do whatever they can to stop it.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hands of adult on left and Asian girl on right, holding tiny tree sapling about to plant in soil" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577941/original/file-20240226-26-f2ut7z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tree planting was one of 11 environmental actions measured within a new study into the climate psychology of making change happen at both personal and policy levels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/asian-little-child-girl-helping-her-562012174">A3pfamily/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Before conducting this experiment, we hoped to find out which interventions would work in all contexts. Instead, we found some really interesting results that have spurred even more scientific investigation in this domain.</p>
<p>When we put all the data together, we found that one intervention, like reducing psychological distance, worked well in one context but then backfired in another, as is the case in Austria and Germany. This is probably due to the large amount of diversity in the data. </p>
<p>There could be further differences that our data has not accounted for. Complicating things even more, interventions had different effects depending on the variable we were targeting. If one intervention worked at increasing belief in climate change, it tended to backfire on effortful behaviour.</p>
<p>No one solution will stimulate climate change mitigation internationally. Both top-down regulations from policymakers and individual behaviour shifts are necessary pieces of the puzzle and context is key.</p>
<h2>A new app</h2>
<p>We have used our findings to help design a new <a href="https://climate-interventions.shinyapps.io/climate-interventions/">climate intervention app</a> that can empower people to make more environmentally conscious decisions at governmental, community and household levels. Based on the vast pool of data used in our research, anyone can explore how effective interventions have been in specific countries, within certain age ranges or even according to political identity, ideally by looking at samples with more than 30 people for the best results. </p>
<p>This free and easy-to-use app could be particularly useful for policymakers and climate change communicators. For example, if you want to know how to best increase policy support in Europeans who are over 50 years old, emphasising how those policies will affect future generations, especially their own children and grandchildren, might be your best bet. </p>
<h2>Voting for change</h2>
<p>Whenever making personal choices related to climate change, such as opting for a slow train or booking a quick flight, you can use these results to help make your decision easier. Log into the app and see what works well for people of a similar age to you living in the same country. You can then consider the intervention before making your decision. </p>
<p>If reducing psychological distance is the best acting intervention, you can remind yourself of all the ways that climate change is already affecting people close to you. This will help you prioritise what is important to you in the context of that decision and make the whole process simpler. </p>
<p>Voting is a choice that can have a huge effect on climate. Voting for candidates and parties that prioritise climate change can help curb greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, one of the top predictors of whether a climate policy will be adopted is public support. </p>
<p>Being vocal about climate policies that you support may help to spread awareness and increase the likelihood that the policy is adopted. That might involve writing letters to your local representatives, talking to friends and family or posting on social media. </p>
<p>Our paper sheds new light on the effectiveness of various types of climate messaging and the app offers practical ways to help facilitate climate action. By streamlining the more targeted deployment of effective interventions, less time and money will be wasted on interventions that won’t feasibly work in that scenario. Coordinating efforts at all levels of governance is necessary to effectively tackle the climate crisis because time is of the essence.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Insight from one of the largest experiments ever conducted in climate change psychology sheds light on how people could make more effective decisions about their lifestyle and also wider policies.
Chiara Longoni, Associate Professor, Marketing and Social Science, Bocconi University
Kimberly Doell, Senior Researcher in Environmental and Climate Change Psychology, Universität Wien
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/222567
2024-02-15T13:16:03Z
2024-02-15T13:16:03Z
Most people would be equally satisfied with having one child as with two or three – new research
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575046/original/file-20240212-18-cr3m9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2650%2C1918&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/diverse-culture-families-playing-children-on-644803663">Tint Media/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Picture your ideal family. Do you have children? How many?</p>
<p>It’s fairly well established that when asked about their ideal family, people <a href="https://uk.style.yahoo.com/parents-happiest-with-this-number-of-children-130657574.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALSMoZY_favqh1RLJg3osUVkZY4Rcc-gZ73Db3kMC4q4wHFgjNXJeTMPDGEwWCJfcYMawoqwwsnmEprKNbIpz1qN6Dh3gSvg3SLmTlvez2ll1oiAXxQics4EvK5c5M4Kw73OjCf2ADaZ_uO3NxJkkhniFfs20KNzuUuLll_4-5Mi">tend to say</a> that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-families-ideal-number-of-kids-cost-raising-child-expensive-2023-11?r=US&IR=T">two children</a> is the best number to have. But this regularity has come about from asking the simple question: “Ideally, how many children would you like to have?”. </p>
<p>But if two children really was the best number to have, surely most people would have two – but they don’t. In South Korea, the average number of children is less than one per woman. In the US it’s 1.64. </p>
<p>A huge number of studies have tried to figure out why this is – why there’s a gap between the number of children people say they want, and how many they have. But it turns out we may have been asking the wrong questions. </p>
<p>When you take a different approach and ask people to rate different options of family life, you get a far more accurate idea of what people are happy with. <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2311847121">My research</a> with colleagues has done just this. I found that people still valued parenthood. But they valued having one child just as highly as having two or three. </p>
<h2>Family values</h2>
<p>A family isn’t just about the number of children. There are a whole range of other things to consider when thinking about what your ideal family might look like. Are you married, cohabiting, or a single parent? Who does the washing up and changes the nappies? What does the work-life balance in your family look like? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Family of three in kitchen" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575047/original/file-20240212-20-gm8rij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575047/original/file-20240212-20-gm8rij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575047/original/file-20240212-20-gm8rij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575047/original/file-20240212-20-gm8rij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575047/original/file-20240212-20-gm8rij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575047/original/file-20240212-20-gm8rij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575047/original/file-20240212-20-gm8rij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We found that number of children mattered less than you might expect.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/happy-young-family-three-home-kitchen-45888763">michaeljung/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When you bring in factors like this, the ideal number of children starts to change. </p>
<p>We carried out research with around 10,000 people in a range of countries: the US, Norway, Italy, Spain, Japan, China, South Korea and Singapore. We showed each person in the study six scenarios with descriptions of different families. Half of the respondents were shown scenarios that included families with no children as well as with children, and the other half saw scenarios that included families with one, two or three children. </p>
<p>These scenarios had further varying factors, such as traditional or egalitarian gender roles and the amount of contact with extended family. In some, family members communicated well, and not in others. We asked the people in our study to rate these different scenarios on a scale from one to ten.</p>
<p>The findings are clear. Looking at all the responses, overall people do feel that a family with no children is not ideal. Parenthood still matters. But there is no discernable difference in how people rated the families with one, two or three children. </p>
<p>The only outlier is China, where people viewed having three children somewhat negatively: understandable after decades of policies curbing fertility. Nowhere in our study was having just one child viewed more negatively. </p>
<h2>Importance of communicating</h2>
<p>What does come out very strongly is the role of communication, both within the nuclear family but also with grandparents. This characteristic is the most important feature of the ideal family of today.</p>
<p>If you think about it, this finding is not all too unexpected. Good communication means strong emotional support – and that is what most people would like to receive from a family. If communication breaks down, then why bother with having a family if you can get the necessary support elsewhere through friends and other social networks?</p>
<p>Other features matter too – obviously. Respondents viewed low income negatively (apart from in Norway). More egalitarian gender roles and good work-life balance are important. But our findings, which are remarkably similar across different countries, show that good communication matters the most in people’s vision for good family life – more than the number of children they might have.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arnstein Aassve receives funding from Horizon Europe. </span></em></p>
We found no discernable difference in how people rated family scenarios with one, two or three children.
Arnstein Aassve, Professor in Demography, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221996
2024-01-26T18:09:56Z
2024-01-26T18:09:56Z
Humans are going back to the Moon to stay, but when that will be is becoming less clear
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571678/original/file-20240126-28-5py8a0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C2038%2C1532&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasa2explore/52547251628/in/album-72177720303788800/">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A 2019 Time magazine <a href="https://timecoverstore.com/featured/the-next-space-race-time.html">cover portrayed</a> four astronauts running towards the Moon. Pictured alongside the headline “The Next Space Race”, one of the astronauts carried an American flag, one carried a Chinese flag and the other two belonged to space companies owned by billionaires: Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin. </p>
<p>Until recently, it seemed as if the US and SpaceX were set to win this race to return to the Moon with Nasa’s <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/">Artemis programme</a>. But a number of setbacks have called that into question. And Blue Origin, China and other countries and companies are continuing their own lunar efforts.</p>
<p>On January 9 2024, Nasa announced that it was delaying the Artemis 2 mission, the first crewed flight of the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/space-launch-system/">Space Launch System (SLS)</a> and the Orion capsule – the vehicles built to send astronauts back to deep space. The flight would slip from late 2024 to no earlier than September 2025. This was due to some safety issues that need to be fixed on Orion. </p>
<p>Consequently, Artemis 3, which is supposed to involve the first crewed lunar landing since 1972, will take place no earlier than September 2026. Artemis 3 is to use <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/">SpaceX’s Starship orbiter</a> as the lander for two crew members. This mission is set to put the first woman and the first person of colour on the lunar surface. </p>
<p>A non-American crew member could also walk on the Moon by 2030, highlighting the fact that Nasa has involved international partners in the Artemis venture. Up until now, <a href="https://www.space.com/how-many-people-have-walked-on-the-moon">just 12 humans have set foot on the Moon</a>. All of them have been male and all have been American.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Astronauts study Moon's surface with various vehicles in the background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571507/original/file-20240125-19-6htotg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C1%2C1020%2C573&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571507/original/file-20240125-19-6htotg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571507/original/file-20240125-19-6htotg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571507/original/file-20240125-19-6htotg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571507/original/file-20240125-19-6htotg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571507/original/file-20240125-19-6htotg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571507/original/file-20240125-19-6htotg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An artist’s rendering of US astronauts exploring the Moon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the Starship orbiter, crucial to these aims, has experienced problems. A <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-second-test-flight-launch-explodes">second test launch</a> for the rocketship-like orbiter atop its huge booster rocket back in November 2023, was spectacularly destroyed eight minutes and six seconds after lift off. </p>
<p>It will have to be ready to go by 2026. But, before then, SpaceX will have to demonstrate that it can refuel in orbit and then land Starship on the Moon without crew. </p>
<p>At the same time, however, Blue Origin is also working on a lander, called Blue Moon. Blue Moon is due to be used as the Moon landing craft for the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-shares-progress-toward-early-artemis-moon-missions-with-crew/">Artemis 5 and 6 missions in 2029 and 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Time will tell which lander can actually be ready for use first. But competition is always a good stimulator, and it could accelerate achievements. </p>
<p>Commercial companies supporting Nasa in the Artemis program will have to put a lot of attention into what to do and when. The lives of crew members are at stake here, so missions have to proceed in a safe and sustainable manner.</p>
<p>As with Apollo, Nasa is also trying to use the program to inspire the next generation of scientists, engineers and mathematicians. Baby boomers like myself are very proud to be “Apollo kids” who were inspired to study scientific subjects by those momentous achievements – particularly the first steps on another world, viewed through black and white TVs in July 1969.</p>
<h2>International competition</h2>
<p>China is also preparing itself, together with several other countries including Russia, to develop a lunar base for humans, called the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). Beijing and its partners will include also private sectors players and governmental and non-governmental organisations, with an organisational scheme which is a first. </p>
<p>The Chinese program’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-offers-collaborate-lunar-mission-deadlines-loom-2023-10-03/">first human missions to the lunar surface are expected by 2030</a>. Among the sites where they want to land is the Moon’s south pole. Nasa also wants to land here, but few of Beijing’s choices are in overlap with the locations selected for Artemis. </p>
<p>The south pole is a target for both the US and China because countries want to extract the water ice that’s hidden in craters there. This water could be used for life support at lunar bases and to make rocket fuel, helping bring down the cost of space exploration. </p>
<p>Space programs are never on time, and postponements are normal. Space agencies are
more cautious nowadays, even more than before, because few tragedies we experienced in the past are obliging them to think very carefully before launching humans in space. </p>
<p>Safety of the crew is mandatory, and it must be always the first priority. So, if this is the reason why we have to wait a bit more before few human beings, after decades, will walk again on the Moon, I’m happy to wait for it. </p>
<p>Going to space has never been easy, as demonstrated by several uncrewed missions to the Moon over the last 12 months – both governmental and commercial – which didn’t make it. But perhaps it’s better we fail now while we are preparing for the new phase of humanity’s history. </p>
<p>The Moon will soon experience human beings on its surface again, working and living on a regular basis. But when humans go back there, this time it will be to stay.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221996/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simonetta Di Pippo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The US might be facing international competition to be first to return to the Moon.
Simonetta Di Pippo, Director of the Space Economy Evolution Lab, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/220513
2024-01-04T16:29:28Z
2024-01-04T16:29:28Z
Mr Bates vs The Post Office depicts one of the UK’s worst miscarriages of justice: here’s why so many victims didn’t speak out
<p>The new <a href="https://www.itv.com/watch/news/mr-bates-vs-the-post-office-real-life-scandal-turned-into-tv-drama/sfs8khr">ITV drama</a> about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-post-office-scandal-is-possibly-the-largest-miscarriage-of-justice-in-uk-history-and-its-not-over-yet-211217">Post Office Horizon IT scandal</a> is an incredibly important vehicle for getting the story of what is increasingly recognised as one of the greatest miscarriages of justice in British history into public consciousness.</p>
<p>However, viewers might find themselves with one looming unanswered question as they watch: how could this persist, at such a scale, for so long? How could hundreds of people face wrongful termination of their employment contracts, loss of their businesses, bankruptcy and often criminal prosecution at the hands of the same organisation for over a decade, with no one seeming to pay any attention?</p>
<p>The four-part series focuses on a handful of sub-postmasters who defiantly spoke out against the injustices they faced, and who were key players in bringing this scandal to light. Chief among them is Alan Bates, a sub-postmaster from north Wales who established the <a href="https://www.jfsa.org.uk/">Justice for Sub-postmasters Alliance</a> and has worked tirelessly on behalf of victims of the Horizon scandal. The efforts of Bates and others have been invaluable – but they are a tiny subset of the overall victims.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zPkvYXufpAY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>Today, we know the Post Office wrongly <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5802/cmselect/cmbeis/1129/report.html">prosecuted 736 sub-postmasters</a> for theft, false accounting and related charges because of technical faults in the Horizon IT system, and these accusations persisted for 16 years – from 1999 to 2015, which equates to an average of roughly one person charged each week.</p>
<p>By and large, most sub-postmaster victims did not speak out about the injustice they faced. Some took years to come forward, and many still prefer to remain anonymous. As depicted in the drama, the first journalist to help break the story, who was from Computer Weekly, was only able to identify and vet seven victims for <a href="https://www.computerweekly.com/news/2240089230/Bankruptcy-prosecution-and-disrupted-livelihoods-Postmasters-tell-their-story">her story</a> – and it was published ten years after the Post Office began falsely accusing sub-postmasters of various crimes. So where were the other victims?</p>
<p>Based on a detailed analysis of hundreds of transcripts from the <a href="https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/">public inquiry</a> and interviews with sub-postmasters across the UK, our <a href="https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/ba-leverhulme-small-research-grants/past-awards/british-academy-leverhulme-small-research-grants-2022-2023/">ongoing research</a> has enabled us to identify the four main barriers that the victims of this scandal faced when it came to speaking out.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/288776/original/file-20190820-170910-8bv1s7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>This article is part of Conversation Insights</em></strong>
<br><em>The Insights team generates <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218">long-form journalism</a> derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Understanding these barriers can help us understand, more broadly, why miscarriages of justice often take a long time to surface, especially when they happen at the hands of an employer – and even more so in contexts like the Horizon scandal, where people were quick to believe the technology and blame the user.</p>
<h2>Sub-postmasters told they were the ‘only ones’</h2>
<p>Viewers of the ITV drama will see that accused sub-postmasters were repeatedly told they were the “only one” having problems with the Horizon system, even when cases like theirs were going on all over the country. We found similar accounts time and again within the <a href="https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/hearings">public inquiry</a> witness statements, with one witness, Katherine McAlerney, representing the experiences of many when <a href="https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/evidence/witn03250100-katherine-mcalerney-witness-statement">she said</a>: “I was told during my
interview that I was the only one who had a problem like this with the system.”</p>
<p>Another sub-postmaster, Margery Lorraine Williams, <a href="https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/evidence/witn01740100-margery-lorraine-williams-first-witness-statement">recalled</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I confirmed that I had not done anything wrong and asked again about issues with the Horizon system. I was led to believe at this meeting that I was the only sub-postmaster who was having problems with shortfalls. It made me feel stupid that I was the only person who had these issues.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, the ITV drama quickly moves past this period, and we see the sub-postmasters coming together and finding out about each other’s similar situations. While this is a key turning point in bringing this injustice to light, in reality most of the sub-postmasters suffered for years believing what they had been told – that they were the only one – before becoming aware of any other victims.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-post-office-scandal-is-possibly-the-largest-miscarriage-of-justice-in-uk-history-and-its-not-over-yet-211217">The Post Office scandal is possibly the largest miscarriage of justice in UK history – and it's not over yet</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In her <a href="https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/evidence/witn03250100-katherine-mcalerney-witness-statement">witness statement</a>, McAlerney said: “I believed firmly that I was the only one until about four years later, when I saw an article about the Horizon system and I thought: ‘Oh my god, that is what happened to me.’” </p>
<p>Another key person whose story we see in the TV drama, <a href="https://youtu.be/_OPvd8ovGSo?si=YL6rpzoSfJ09ktuk&t=5785">Hughie Noel Thomas</a>, was sentenced to nine months in prison in November 2006, based on faulty information from Horizon. A few scenes after we are introduced to Thomas in the drama, he is shown meeting with another key sub-postmaster, Jo Hamilton. In fact, this meeting occurred nearly three years after his sentencing.</p>
<p>Thomas has <a href="https://www.troubador.co.uk/bookshop/biography/the-stamp-of-innocence">written a memoir</a> in which he reflects on his feeling of isolation over those three years, and how it discouraged him from speaking out. He wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>With no mention anywhere else that any other sub-postmaster had been implicated in the same way as I had been, it all seemed completely hopeless. I was all on my own, in a post-prison hell. And it was a terribly lonely place to be, believe you me.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>When we interviewed Thomas near his home in Anglesey, north Wales, about this “in-between” period, he said: “After I went to prison, I was in cuckoo land for three years. I was basically silent about everything until I found the others.” In his <a href="https://www.troubador.co.uk/bookshop/biography/the-stamp-of-innocence">memoir</a>, he refers to finding out about other victims as “manna from heaven”.</p>
<p>Another victim we interviewed, Janet Skinner – who pleaded guilty to false accounting and was sent to jail for nine months – told us that she felt similarly isolated, and was also reluctant to speak out publicly about the injustice. Instead, she “tried to bury it” because she too was led to believe she was “the only person who was having any kind of issues with the system”.</p>
<p>Being told they were the only one not only discouraged victims from speaking out, it also planted a seed of self-doubt in many of their minds. As Hamilton, a sub-postmaster from a village in Hampshire, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmjGS7LdVf8">told the public inquiry</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I began to feel like I was going mad and that it was entirely my fault … When he said I was the only one, that’s how I did feel … I thought: Oh God, I must be – you know, I just thought it was me.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This cycle of isolation and self-doubt helps explain why most did not attempt to find other possible victims or try to speak out publicly about the injustice – which contributed to the scandal persisting for so long.</p>
<h2>‘Spat on, shouted at and shunned’</h2>
<p>There are countless examples of victims of the Horizon IT Scandal being stigmatised in and by their local community. While the drama focuses on the heartwarming story of Hamilton, who received an inordinate amount of support from her local community, most sub-postmasters were not so lucky. In fact, they had quite the opposite experience.</p>
<p>Our analyses of the public inquiry statements reveal the local stigmatisation and shame that many felt. There are vivid accounts of sub-postmasters being <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/royal-mail/10179024/Labelled-as-criminals.html">spat on</a>, <a href="https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/evidence/witn02450100-philip-cowan-witness-statement">shouted at</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/15/post-office-scandal-workers-computer-system">shunned</a>. As sub-postmaster Nicola Arch, who had worked for the Post Office since 1993, <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/973319/horizon-focus-group-feb-25_Redacted.pdf">told the inquiry</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the village, I couldn’t walk through it without people [thinking]: ‘This is the lady who stole from the pensioners.’ It was all in the local papers. I couldn’t go in the supermarket – the whole place would go silent. Village life was so … almost incestuous. Everyone knew everybody. It was a living nightmare to the point where I refused to leave the house … I stayed indoors and never even went out to the shop for 19 months.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Skinner, one of more than 230 sub-postmasters who were wrongly jailed, <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/973319/horizon-focus-group-feb-25_Redacted.pdf">told the inquiry</a>: “People automatically assume that you are a thief … You have a stigma. It’s people talking about you and pointing the finger at you. ‘Oh, that’s that woman who nicked all the money from the Post Office. Do you remember?’ I’ve heard that so many times.”</p>
<p>In his <a href="https://www.troubador.co.uk/bookshop/biography/the-stamp-of-innocence">memoir</a>, Thomas described how it felt to lose his standing in his community. “I felt this immense sense of shame … Shame for myself, shame for my family, and shame for my community to have been drawn into such a scandal.”</p>
<p>We have also collected and analysed local news reports on the early accusations. Common themes include describing the allegations as “stealing from pensioners” or “having their hand in the till”, and the sub-postmasters frequently being labelled as criminals and thieves and exhibiting a “fall from grace” – even when they were not prosecuted. </p>
<p>This sense of shame is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the negative mental health effects that sub-postmasters experienced from being wrongfully accused. A <a href="https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/lcrp.12247">2023 study</a> found no difference in the severity of mental health symptoms between the sub-postmasters convicted of criminal offences and those who were investigated, prosecuted or pursued in a civil court. Those who experienced a wrongful accusation had similar negative mental health outcomes as those who were wrongfully convicted.</p>
<p>Our research leads us to believe these feelings of shame and experiences of stigmatisation discouraged people from speaking out about the injustice.</p>
<h2>Victims were unable to defend themselves</h2>
<p>But what if someone did want to speak out and fight back? Those who did faced an impossible task. </p>
<p>Imagine that, tomorrow morning, you walk into work and are called into your line-manager’s office. They accuse you of something and tell you to gather your personal items as you are being sacked. You try to reassure them you’ve done nothing wrong, and you know that if you can access some files on your computer, you can clear it all up. But when you go to your desk, you see that your computer is gone, along with your access to all your IT systems, emails, documents and archived electronic files.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XY5cpJrYEME?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>This is the nightmare reality that sub-postmasters who were accused of theft and false accounting often faced. The Horizon point-of-sale IT system provided them with a very limited paper trail to cross-check their transactions – and when they were investigated, everything was seized from them (even their paperwork) with no notice. As one victim, Keith Macaldowie, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHxb9-IlSPA">recalled</a> during the inquiry:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They closed the office when they suspended me, so I couldn’t gain access. They took all of the keys off me for the post office – the safe and the till – and I was locked out of Horizon.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Those who tried to fight the false accusations had a hard time convincing others that Horizon was at fault. As Lee Castleton, a former sub-postmaster from Bridlington who is profiled in the ITV drama, told us in an interview:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I went to court and lost epically. I couldn’t have done any more. I’d been presented with a problem, a problem that I couldn’t climb over [and] couldn’t get my head around. I couldn’t make other people understand what I was trying to show them.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Castleton was bankrupted by his legal ordeal. Because sub-postmasters did not have the information to prove their innocence, many ended up taking plea bargains. One who prefers to remain anonymous told us he took a plea bargain because he “couldn’t prove that I didn’t do it”. After pleading guilty, he said he wasn’t sure even his parents believed he was innocent until his conviction was overturned. Like so many others, he waited decades for his <a href="https://evidencebasedjustice.exeter.ac.uk/current-research-data/post-office-project/#acquittalstodate">conviction to be overturned</a>. Many more are still waiting.</p>
<p>In May 2021, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57113342">a BBC news report</a> revealed that former sub-postmaster Parmod Kalia hid his conviction from his closest family members for 20 years. He only revealed to them what happened when his conviction was overturned.</p>
<p>Overall, we found the lack of access to information that could prove the sub-postmasters’ innocence discouraged them from trying to speak out. This finding is particularly pertinent for workplace disputes, especially in the digital age when someone’s communications are usually all electronic and are technically owned by their employer. It is a frightening reality that if you are suspected of something at work, you can immediately lose access to any information that will prove your innocence.</p>
<h2>‘The Queen’s business’</h2>
<p>At the time these false accusations were taking place, the Post Office was seen by many as “<a href="https://www.judiciary.uk/judgments/hamilton-others-v-post-office-limited/">the nation’s most trusted brand</a>”. The high reputation it had in society further encouraged sub-postmasters to think no one would believe them if they tried to fight the injustices they faced. As one of the victims, Nicola Arch, told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Working for the Post Office, it was the Queen’s business. It was very respected, very highly regarded. The Queen acknowledges the Post Office — her face is on the stamps. In that era, everyone believed that it was a very prestigious company to work for, very respected … Everyone thought the Post Office could never be wrong.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Skinner recalled a similar experience when we interviewed her. “I think because of the reputation of the Post Office, people believed them over you – even though you were telling the truth … It was a case of: ‘Well, she must have taken the money, or else why would she have gone to prison?’ So [my response] was more buried than fighting against anything.”</p>
<p>It wasn’t only the general public who had faith in the Post Office. Among both its management and audit team at the time – which we know much more about now through the public inquiry – there was a hierarchical culture in which criticism was not welcomed. </p>
<p>Despite individual appeals by sub-postmasters, Post Office managers did not challenge the leadership or organisation, and apparently believed their systems, including Horizon, were infallible. Over and over again, the Post Office made public statements about Horizon being “robust”. </p>
<p>In a 2021 Court of Appeal decision that cleared the names of dozens of former sub-postmasters, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56859357">Lord Justice Holroyde said</a> the Post Office knew there were serious issues with the system, yet “consistently asserted that Horizon was robust and reliable” and “effectively steamrolled over any sub-postmaster who sought to challenge its accuracy”.</p>
<p>In interactions with sub-postmasters, the Post Office auditors emphasised that the computer could not be wrong, as shown in the following account from Arch’s <a href="https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/evidence/witn01220100-nichola-arch-witness-statement">witness statement</a> to the inquiry:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[The auditor said:] ‘You popped it in your purse.’ I said: ‘No, I didn’t.’ I told him the daily totals were right and I had evidence to show that, but I couldn’t access it. And he replied that he was not interested in what I said as the computer was the most hi-tech equipment you could wish for, and no one else had had any problems with it.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The myth of ‘infallible systems’</h2>
<p>The lack of willingness on the part of the Post Office to even entertain the idea that its IT systems might have a problem discouraged sub-postmasters from trying to resolve the issue with the Post Office directly. It also fuelled their self-doubt about whether this “perfect” system really could have any bugs in it.</p>
<p>This last factor is particularly pertinent for disputes around technology, in which people can easily fall prey to what researchers call <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jpart/article/33/1/153/6524536">“automation bias”</a>, a psychological bias in which people readily discount information that does not conform to what technology advises or has determined.</p>
<p>When injustices comes to light, often years after harm has occurred, we often hear people ask: ‘If this was going on, why didn’t they tell someone? Why are they only saying this now?’</p>
<p>In examining this case, we have found there are numerous legitimate reasons why victims don’t speak up – especially when they are intentionally isolated, experience self-doubt, feel ashamed about what has happened, and are not given access to the vital information they need to prove their innocence against a powerful perpetrator.</p>
<p>It all seems so obvious in hindsight. Sub-postmasters were highly vetted and highly skilled people. Post Office employees have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=-O24T0TmoVc">given evidence</a> confirming that sub-postmasters were subject to “good character checks”. Statistically, such a high percentage of them being criminals was very unlikely. This alone should have raised concerns about these accusations, both inside and outside the Post Office.</p>
<p>But Post Office management falsely believed their technological systems were infallible, and dug their heels in at any opportunity to recognise this injustice for what it was. </p>
<p>At the end of the day, this is not a scandal about technological failing. It is a scandal about the gross failure of management to stand up for the human beings who had dedicated so many years of their lives working for ‘the Queen’s business’.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=112&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313478/original/file-20200204-41481-1n8vco4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>For you: more from our <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/insights-series-71218?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK">Insights series</a>:</em></p>
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<p><em>To hear about new Insights articles, join the hundreds of thousands of people who value The Conversation’s evidence-based news. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=InsightsUK"><strong>Subscribe to our newsletter</strong></a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grace Augustine receives funding from the British Academy / Leverhulme Trust for her research on the Post Office Horizon IT Scandal project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jan Lodge receives funding from the British Academy / Leverhulme Trust for his research on the Post Office Horizon IT Scandal project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mislav Radic receives funding from the British Academy / Leverhulme Trust for his research on the Post Office Horizon IT Scandal project.</span></em></p>
Our research has identified four main barriers that stopped hundreds of sub-postmasters speaking out for so long.
Grace Augustine, Associate Professor in Business & Society, University of Bath
Jan Lodge, Assistant Professor, Department of Business-Society Management, Rotterdam School of Management
Mislav Radic, Assistant Professor, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/218561
2023-11-29T14:07:35Z
2023-11-29T14:07:35Z
Inflation has affected the UK, US and Europe differently – here’s what this means for interest rates
<p>The Bank of England’s governor has <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjrpzxpv90eo">repeatedly warned</a> that it will not cut UK interest rates <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/02/bank-of-england-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged.html">any time soon</a>, even with a recent sharp fall in consumer price inflation. </p>
<p>Like central banks in the US and eurozone, the bank has been sharply increasing its base rate to try to tame a spike in inflation. But this has increased the interest people must pay on loans like mortgages, as well as businesses’ financing costs, leading to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/uk-economy-shows-signs-slowdown-boe-rate-hikes-mount-2023-08-23/">an economic slowdown</a>.</p>
<p>Inflation has roared back around the world over the past two years after many years of “low-flation”. A period of slow consumer price growth since the mid-2010s had left central banks struggling for ways to stimulate economic activity. But how they have tackled inflation since have diverged in line with the specific issues and items driving price growth in each economy. Understanding these differences could shed light on the likely direction of interest rates in the coming months.</p>
<p>When COVID hit and lockdown measures stopped the economy altogether, price pressures fell even more than they had during the low-flation period. Some inflation gauges even turned negative. The world’s major central banks used more monetary stimulus to keep their economies afloat. The eurozone implemented the pandemic emergency purchase programme (<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/pepp/html/index.en.html">PEPP</a>), while <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/coronavirus">the UK</a> and <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2020/august/fed-response-covid19-pandemic">the US</a> came up with similar measures. </p>
<p>The COVID recession also had a particularly pronounced effect on energy prices – US <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52350082">oil prices even went negative</a> for a few days in March 2020.</p>
<p>But this shock was temporary. As lockdowns eased throughout the western world in the second half of 2020 and into 2021, the economy jumped back quickly. This happened faster and to a greater extent than anyone had anticipated thanks to the stimulus programmes countries enacted. </p>
<h2>Diverging fortunes</h2>
<p>Of course, since every country didn’t experience this snapback at the same time, global supply chains could not keep up. Production in some countries was still in lockdown, while in others factories were ramping up production as people in recovering countries were starting to buy again. Orders became backlogged and shipments were queued. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/global-economy-2023-covid-19-turned-global-supply-chains-upside-down-3-ways-the-pandemic-forced-companies-to-rethink-and-transform-how-they-source-their-products-196764">These bottlenecks</a> led to shortages and price hikes for many goods – from <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/auto-industry-supply-chains-hit-hardest-during-covid-pandemic-survey.html">cars</a> to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/apples-iphone-shipments-seen-sagging-under-china-disruptions-2022-11-30/">phones</a> to over-the-counter <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90828462/from-baby-formula-to-tylenol-2022-was-the-year-in-shortages-but-whats-in-store-for-2023">pain meds and baby formula</a>.</p>
<p>Energy prices also shot up again. Crude oil prices reached pre-pandemic levels by <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100615/will-oil-prices-go-2017.asp#:%7E:text=9-,WTI%20closed%20out%202020,-at%20around%20%2448">the end of 2020</a> and surpassed them throughout 2021. So even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, energy prices and the reopening of the economy were pushing inflation up.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russia-ukraine-war-has-nearly-doubled-household-energy-costs-worldwide-new-study-200104">Russia–Ukraine war has nearly doubled household energy costs worldwide – new study</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The outbreak of the war in Ukraine gave energy prices another jolt, of course – especially natural gas in Europe. This led <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/will-inflation-in-the-uk-keep-rising#:%7E:text=For%20example%2C%20if%20there%20is,'cost%2Dpush'%20inflation.">central banks to argue</a> they were fighting global cost-push inflation. This means external factors were pushing up the prices of key goods, leaving central banks with little control. </p>
<p>But a closer look at the figures shows that the inflation stories in the three major economies of the US, UK and eurozone had already started to diverge at this point. Since then, they have become even more different. </p>
<p>In all three, inflation peaked at close to 10% in the second half of 2022, but the drivers differed. The following charts show the major contributors to overall consumer price inflation in each of these regions were energy, food and then services and other goods.</p>
<p>In the eurozone, inflation was mostly due to higher energy and, later, food prices:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562394/original/file-20231129-17-9eqdfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line graph showing headline inflation, and that for energy, food and all other items in the Eurozone rising to a peak in October 2022 before falling again." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562394/original/file-20231129-17-9eqdfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562394/original/file-20231129-17-9eqdfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562394/original/file-20231129-17-9eqdfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562394/original/file-20231129-17-9eqdfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562394/original/file-20231129-17-9eqdfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562394/original/file-20231129-17-9eqdfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562394/original/file-20231129-17-9eqdfq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm">Author provided using OECD data.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But in the UK the prices of non-energy, non-food items were more important to the inflationary push: </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562397/original/file-20231129-30-8d3izq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line chart showing headline rate of UK inflation and that for energy, food and all other items, rising until October 2022 before falling again." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562397/original/file-20231129-30-8d3izq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562397/original/file-20231129-30-8d3izq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562397/original/file-20231129-30-8d3izq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562397/original/file-20231129-30-8d3izq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562397/original/file-20231129-30-8d3izq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562397/original/file-20231129-30-8d3izq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562397/original/file-20231129-30-8d3izq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm">Author provided using OECD data.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As they were in the US:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562398/original/file-20231129-29-x68ffx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line chart showing headline rate of US inflation and that for energy, food and all other items, rising until October 2022 before falling again." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562398/original/file-20231129-29-x68ffx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562398/original/file-20231129-29-x68ffx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562398/original/file-20231129-29-x68ffx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562398/original/file-20231129-29-x68ffx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562398/original/file-20231129-29-x68ffx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562398/original/file-20231129-29-x68ffx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562398/original/file-20231129-29-x68ffx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm">Author provided using OECD data.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The current inflation picture</h2>
<p>Now the height of the pandemic is behind these economies, supply chain pressures have eased, and energy prices are back to pre-war levels – hence the fall in inflation that’s <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23">now being reported</a> relative to last year. </p>
<p>But the latest headline inflation figures (October 2023) show that another item is now causing these three economies to diverge: housing. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561929/original/file-20231127-21-z3j90n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three bar charts showing the differing composition of inflation between the US, Eurozone and UK in the October 2023 inflation data." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561929/original/file-20231127-21-z3j90n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561929/original/file-20231127-21-z3j90n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561929/original/file-20231127-21-z3j90n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561929/original/file-20231127-21-z3j90n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561929/original/file-20231127-21-z3j90n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561929/original/file-20231127-21-z3j90n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561929/original/file-20231127-21-z3j90n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The items that fuelled price inflation in the US, UK and Eurozone headline inflation rates in October 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and UK Office for National Statistics</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The US and the eurozone have similar headline inflation rates. But in the US, inflation is mainly driven by housing costs (which may be partly due to the way housing costs are measured in the US). In the eurozone, however, energy prices are now dragging down the rate of inflation – although that is offset to a large extent by food prices, which have continued to rise. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the UK has a higher inflation rate and the “all other items” category is now the biggest driver of price rises. So, in the UK, price increases across the board mean that inflationary pressures have spread from a few sectors, like energy or housing, to the broader economy. This makes inflation more sticky and requires more policy tightening to cool down the economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Person holding empty wallet open, over credit cards and bills." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561946/original/file-20231127-17-m41f87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561946/original/file-20231127-17-m41f87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561946/original/file-20231127-17-m41f87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561946/original/file-20231127-17-m41f87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561946/original/file-20231127-17-m41f87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561946/original/file-20231127-17-m41f87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561946/original/file-20231127-17-m41f87.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Monetary policy tightening can include rate rises, which increase rates on loans and mortgages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/credit-card-debt-holding-empty-wallet-421745821">Yingzaa_ST/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>More interest rate rises to come?</h2>
<p>All of this shows that, in the US and the eurozone there is little sign of broad-based inflation pressures at the moment. If energy prices remain constant and food prices stabilise, inflation might soon return to close to the 2% target most central banks aim for, even without further action by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. </p>
<p>The UK, by contrast, seems to have a more standard inflation problem with price pressures across a wider set of items that still need to be contained. This leaves the Bank of England with a harder job to do to bring inflation under control. </p>
<p>And so, we can expect inflation to keep slowing in the eurozone and the US without much intervention. In the UK, however, further action might be needed if the Bank of England is to keep price rises under control.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218561/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The UK, eurozone and US inflation stories have diverged, which means each economy is now fighting a distinct battle with prices rises, which could require very different weapons.
Pietro Galeone, Research fellow, Bocconi University
Daniel Gros, Professor of Practice and Director of the Institute for European Policymaking, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/218549
2023-11-27T17:12:45Z
2023-11-27T17:12:45Z
Pays-Bas : quels scénarios après la victoire du leader populiste Geert Wilders ?
<p>Les résultats des élections néerlandaises du 22 novembre dernier, qui ont vu la <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/europ%C3%A9en-de-la-semaine/20231126-geert-wilders-le-tribun-d-extr%C3%AAme-droite-au-seuil-du-pouvoir-aux-pays-bas">victoire du Parti pour la liberté</a> (PVV), ont provoqué une onde de choc au sein de l’establishment politique européen. Les effets de ce scrutin pourraient bien aller au-delà des seuls Pays-Bas.</p>
<h2>Une première dans l’histoire du pays</h2>
<p>Pour la première fois dans l’histoire des Pays-Bas, un parti d’extrême droite est devenu le premier en nombre de sièges au Parlement national. Le leader du PVV, Geert Wilders, est un homme politique excentrique connu pour sa rhétorique incendiaire. Il prône la sortie des Pays-Bas de l’Union européenne et a qualifié l’islam de <a href="https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2008/03/07/01003-20080307ARTFIG00024-geert-wilders-l-ideologie-islamique-est-fasciste.php">« religion fasciste »</a>. Lors d’un procès en 2016, il a été reconnu <a href="https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/pays-bas-le-depute-wilders-relaxe-d-incitation-a-la-haine-09-12-2016-2089169_24.php">coupable d’incitation à la discrimination</a>, mais a été dispensé de peine.</p>
<p>[<em>Plus de 85 000 lecteurs font confiance aux newsletters de The Conversation pour mieux comprendre les grands enjeux du monde</em>. <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=france&region=fr">Abonnez-vous aujourd’hui</a>]</p>
<p>Les <a href="https://www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/elections-aux-pays-bas-vers-un-paysage-politique-largement-renouvele-2030607">sondages pré-électoraux</a> avaient indiqué que le Parti pour la liberté pouvait arriver en tête, mais il apparaissait au coude à coude avec les grandes formations traditionnelles de la gauche (Parti travailliste-Gauche verte, PvdA/GL) et de la droite (Parti populaire pour la liberté et la démocratie, VVD). Les sondages se sont révélés loin du compte : Wilders a gagné avec une marge confortable (23,6 % des suffrages, contre 15,5 % au PvdA/GL et 15,2 % au VVD), même s’il devra <a href="https://www.france24.com/fr/europe/20231123-aux-pays-bas-l-extr%C3%AAme-droite-de-geert-wilders-face-au-d%C3%A9fi-de-r%C3%A9unir-une-coalition">chercher des partenaires de coalition</a> pour former un gouvernement.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Rod5IH3E2cQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Séisme politique aux Pays-Bas : l’extrême droite de Geert Wilders remporte les législatives. Euronews, 23 novembre 2023.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Un nouveau parti de droite, le Nouveau contrat social (NSC), a également obtenu un très bon score (12,8 %). Comme le Parti pour la liberté, ce parti désigne l’immigration comme étant la <a href="https://nltimes.nl/2023/10/24/election-front-runner-omtzigt-calls-stricter-immigration-limits-netherlands">première cause de problèmes</a> tels que l’engorgement des services publics néerlandais et le manque de logements abordables. Cependant, Pieter Omtzigt, le leader du NSC (et ancien député en tant que membre de l’Appel chrétien-démocrate, un parti chrétien-démocrate de centre droit qui, ce 22 novembre, n’a récolté que 3,3 % des suffrages), critique certains des discours les plus incendiaires de Wilders.</p>
<p>Omtzigt apparaît néanmoins comme le candidat le plus probable pour former une coalition avec Wilders, ainsi qu’avec le VVD, ancien parti du premier ministre sortant Mark Rutte, démissionnaire en juillet dernier. Mais il faudra attendre un certain temps avant de savoir si un tel partenariat est réalisable. Aux Pays-Bas, la mise en place d’une coalition est l’affaire de plusieurs mois et non de plusieurs semaines.</p>
<p>Ces pourparlers seront d’autant plus complexes que l’image et la personnalité de Wilders sont particulièrement clivantes. Bien que son parti ait remporté le plus grand nombre de sièges (37 sur 150), les controverses qui l’entourent depuis tant d’années risquent de l’empêcher d’obtenir le poste de premier ministre, même si son parti parvenait à mettre en place une coalition gouvernementale.</p>
<p>En cas de formation d’une coalition centrée sur le PVV, la question du maintien des Pays-Bas dans l’UE sera inévitablement mise en avant. Wilders souhaite un <a href="https://www.liberation.fr/international/europe/obsede-par-le-coran-prorusse-et-partisan-du-nexit-geert-wilders-lincrevable-figure-de-lextreme-droite-20231123_5KWABAQ5P5BMFDIWOU2EYKQSPE/">référendum sur la sortie des Pays-Bas de l’UE</a> et, même si ce projet ne se concrétise pas, on peut s’attendre à ce qu’il imprègne d’euroscepticisme tout gouvernement auquel il participerait.</p>
<p>Cela pourrait avoir des conséquences considérables pour l’UE. Même si les <a href="https://www.france24.com/fr/europe/20230920-europe-pour-les-extr%C3%AAmes-droites-ue-doit-%C3%AAtre-un-outil-pour-juguler-les-crises-migratoires">partis d’extrême droite en Europe divergent</a> sur la question de la sortie de l’Union, ils s’accordent sur la nécessité de transformer l’UE en un organe plus intergouvernemental, ce qui ôterait des prérogatives à Bruxelles.</p>
<h2>Un exemple venu d’Italie</h2>
<p>L’année dernière, <a href="https://theconversation.com/en-italie-la-victoire-annoncee-de-lextreme-droite-191111">Giorgia Meloni</a>, avec qui Wilders partage une certaine affinité idéologique, est devenue la première ministre de l’Italie. Le parti de droite radicale de Meloni, Frères d’Italie est arrivé en tête lors des législatives du 25 septembre 2022 et a formé une coalition avec d’autres partis de droite et de droite dure.</p>
<p>À l’instar de Wilders, Meloni était considérée comme une outsider sur la scène politique de son pays et a toujours placé l’immigration <a href="https://www.lecourrierdelatlas.com/italie-limmigration-au-coeur-de-la-campagne-electorale/">au cœur des débats</a>. Mais depuis son arrivée au pouvoir, sa rhétorique anti-immigration a dû être modérée. Elle a rapidement été confrontée aux appels des milieux d’affaires à remédier à la <a href="https://www.euractiv.fr/section/immigration/news/litalie-demande-larret-des-flux-migratoires-mais-veut-plus-de-main-doeuvre-etrangere/">pénurie de main-d’œuvre en Italie</a>, ce qui impliquait d’accorder des permis aux travailleurs immigrés.</p>
<p>Dans mon livre <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvt9k3d3"><em>Political Entrepreneurs</em></a>, coécrit avec Sara Hobolt de la London School of Economics, nous montrons que la pratique du pouvoir change les partis politiques. Il est relativement facile de tenir des discours radicaux depuis les coulisses, mais une fois au gouvernement, les partis doivent assumer la responsabilité de la conduite des affaires de leur pays. Ils doivent prendre des décisions, peser les intérêts – et les réserves financières dont ils disposent pour mener à bien leur politique. Meloni, comme les dirigeants de tant d’autres partis populistes, a rapidement <a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/europe/migrants/crise-migratoire-a-lampedusa-qu-a-fait-giorgia-meloni-face-a-l-immigration-depuis-son-arrivee-au-pouvoir-en-italie_6073092.html">mis de l’eau dans son vin</a> une fois qu’elle est arrivée au pouvoir.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1706508650582319566"}"></div></p>
<p>C’est la leçon la plus importante pour Wilders : Frères d’Italie avait conduit une campagne électorale eurosceptique mais épousent désormais largement des positions proches de celles de Bruxelles, y compris sur les questions relatives à l’immigration. Meloni a même <a href="https://euobserver.com/migration/157613">affiché sa proximité</a> avec la présidente de la Commission européenne, Ursula von der Leyen.</p>
<p>Cela dit, l’expérience italienne offre également un autre exemple que Wilders pourrait trouver intéressant. Dans le cadre de nos recherches, nous avons constaté que les partis qui sont devenus populaires en s’opposant à la politique existante préfèrent parfois garder un pied dans le gouvernement et un pied en dehors. C’est par exemple le cas de Matteo Salvini, chef du parti La Ligue et partenaire de la coalition de Meloni.</p>
<p>Salvini ne manque jamais une occasion de souligner son indépendance, même si cela <a href="https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/2579959-20190808-crise-politique-italie-matteo-salvini-reclame-elections-anticipees-fait-eclater-coalition-populiste">cause des difficultés au gouvernement italien auquel La Ligue participe</a>. Seul un partenaire de coalition secondaire peut se permettre de telles frasques, car un premier ministre et son parti font face à une pression bien plus intense. Wilders pourrait donc trouver plus pratique de suivre la voie de Salvini plutôt que celle de Meloni.</p>
<p>Quelle que soit la voie qu’il emprunte, si Wilders fait partie du gouvernement, les résultats de ces élections auront certainement des conséquences sur les relations des Pays-Bas avec le reste de l’Europe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218549/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine de Vries ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>
Le controversé politicien néerlandais a remporté le plus grand nombre de sièges au Parlement, mais il pourrait encore trouver opportun de ne pas briguer le poste de premier ministre.
Catherine de Vries, Professor of Political Science, Fellow and member of the Management Council of the Institute for European Policymaking, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/218477
2023-11-23T17:38:41Z
2023-11-23T17:38:41Z
Geert Wilders: how election victory in the Netherlands for Party for Freedom fits into a wider picture of European radical-right populism
<p>The results of the Dutch election, in which Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom emerged as victors, have sent shockwaves through the political establishment.</p>
<p>For the first time in Dutch history, a party of the extreme right is the largest in the national parliament. Wilders is an eccentric politician known for his inflammatory rhetoric. He advocates the Netherlands leaving the European Union and has called Islam a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/17/netherlands.islam">“fascist” religion</a>. In a 2016 trial, he was found <a href="https://theconversation.com/guilty-verdict-but-an-excellent-day-for-dutch-far-right-leader-geert-wilders-nonetheless-70227">guilty of inciting discrimination</a> (but received no penalty for the crime).</p>
<p>While polling leading up to the election had suggested that Party for Freedom could become the largest party, it had appeared to be running practically neck and neck with the parties of the mainstream left and right. But the polls were wide of the mark and Wilders ended up taking the most seats by a comfortable margin, even if he will need to seek coalition partners to form a government. </p>
<p>Rightwing newcomers the New Social Contract also did very well. Like Party for Freedom, this party sees immigration as one of the reasons for problems such as the Netherlands’ congested public services and lack of affordable housing. However, Pieter Omtzigt, the New Social Contract’s leader (and a former member of parliament for the more centre-right Christian Democratic Party), is critical of some of Wilders’ more inflammatory rhetoric. </p>
<p>Omtzigt would nevertheless seem the most likely candidate to form a coalition with Wilders, together with the former party of the now-departed prime minister, Mark Rutte. But it will be some time before it’s clear if such a partnership is achievable. Coalition in the Netherlands is the work of months rather than weeks. </p>
<p>These talks will be all the more complex thanks to Wilders’ personal profile. He may hold the greatest number of seats, but the controversy that has surrounded him for so many years may yet rule him out of the role of prime minister, even were he to be part of a governing coalition.</p>
<p>Should a coalition be formed, questions about the Netherlands’ place in the EU will inevitably come to the fore. Wilders wants a Brexit-style referendum and, even if this doesn’t materialise, we can expect him to bring a more Eurosceptic stance to any government in which he participates.</p>
<p>This could have considerable consequences for the EU. Even when extreme-right parties in Europe differ on the question of exit, they agree on transforming the EU into a more intergovernmental body, taking power away from Brussels.</p>
<h2>An example from Italy</h2>
<p>Wilders will be conscious of how the Italian elections played out last year for Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, with whom he shares a certain ideological affinity. Meloni’s radical-right Brothers of Italy emerged as the strongest force in the 2022 vote and formed a coalition with other parties of the right and hard right.</p>
<p>Like Wilders, Meloni was seen as a political outsider and has long put immigration at the heart of political debate. But since coming to power, her strong anti-immigration rhetoric has had to be simmered down. She was quickly confronted with calls from the business community to address Italy’s labour shortage, which meant granting permits for migrant workers. </p>
<p>In my book <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvt9k3d3">Political Entrepreneurs</a>, co-authored with Sara Hobolt from the London School of Economics, we show that governing changes political parties. It is relatively easy to gripe from the sidelines but in government, parties bear responsibility for policy. They have to make decisions, weigh up interests – and can only spend money once. Meloni, like the leaders of so many other populist parties, quickly lost her sharp edge once she became the person in charge. </p>
<p>Most notably for Wilders, the Brothers of Italy had also campaigned with a Eurosceptic tone during the election, but can now be found walking in lockstep with Brussels even on matters relating to immigration. Meloni has even <a href="https://euobserver.com/migration/157613">made a show of her closeness</a> with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/giorgia-meloni-how-the-realities-of-office-trumped-the-italian-prime-ministers-radicalism-216197">Giorgia Meloni: how the realities of office trumped the Italian prime minister's radicalism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>That said, the Italian experience also offers another example that Wilders may find appealing. In our research, we’ve found that parties that have become popular by opposing existing politics sometimes prefer to keep one foot in the government and one foot out. This is certainly the case for Matteo Salvini, leader of the Lega party and a junior coalition partner to Meloni. </p>
<p>Salvini never misses an opportunity to boost his own profile, even if it causes <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49318000">his government difficulty</a>. Only a junior coalition partner can get away with such antics, since a prime minister faces far more pressure. Wilders may therefore find it most convenient to follow Salvini’s path rather than Meloni’s.</p>
<p>Whichever route he takes, if Wilders becomes part of a government, the results of these elections are certain to have consequences for Dutch relations with the rest of Europe.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218477/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine de Vries does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The controversial Dutch politician has won the most seats in parliament, but may still find it expedient to be the junior partner in a coalition government
Catherine de Vries, Professor of Political Science, Fellow and member of the Management Council of the Institute for European Policymaking, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/216762
2023-11-03T13:02:05Z
2023-11-03T13:02:05Z
All-UK astronaut mission shows that private enterprise is vital to the future of space exploration
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556873/original/file-20231031-19-rx8uh3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C0%2C2041%2C1361&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tim Peake could come out of retirement to command the mission.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK Space Agency <a href="https://www.axiomspace.com/news/ukspaceagency-agreement">has signed an agreement</a> with a US company called Axiom Space to develop a space mission carrying four astronauts from the UK. The flight would most likely use the SpaceX Crew Dragon vehicle and travel to the International Space Station (ISS). </p>
<p>The crew is expected to include reserve and active astronauts recently selected by the European Space Agency (Esa), but they will be funded commercially. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/oct/25/tim-peake-quit-retirement-to-lead-uk-first-astronaut-mission">There are also reports</a> it could be commanded by the recently retired Tim Peake.</p>
<p>By taking this step, the UK is joining other countries on a commercial path to human spaceflight. It’s a very significant one too, because commercial funding is absolutely <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/02/the-commercial-space-age-is-here">crucial to the future of space exploration</a>. As a former Esa director of human spaceflight (at the time Peake was hired), I believe this will position the UK to participate in a growing space economy, help democratise space and inspire new generations of students to study science and engineering. </p>
<p>In 1998, Esa decided it would <a href="https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Astronauts/The_European_astronaut_corps">employ and train</a> its own astronauts. Prior to that, few European countries had astronauts flying under their national banner. Esa’s decision was intended to reinforce its role in spaceflight internationally. At the time, the agency had also decided that it wanted to <a href="https://www.issnationallab.org/about/iss-timeline/#:%7E:text=The%20first%20rudimentary%20station%20was,ever%20developed%3A%20the%20American%20shuttles.">strengthen the ISS collaboration</a> and also wanted to get the most out of it. Astronauts were one way to do this.</p>
<p>Prior to 1998, the UK had produced several astronauts and potential astronauts. <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/foale_michael.pdf">Michael Foale</a>, born in Lincolnshire, had dual UK-US nationality and flew to space as a Nasa astronaut. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Sharman">Helen Sharman</a> went to orbit in 1991 as part of an arrangement with the Russian government.</p>
<p>As a result of the European astronaut corps <a href="https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Astronauts/The_European_astronaut_corps">being created in 1998</a>, national astronaut corps in Esa member states were dismantled.</p>
<p>In those countries, including the UK, the focus shifted to selecting astronauts through the Esa process. However, while the UK participated enthusiastically in other Esa programmes, it did not show a great deal of interest in the agency’s optional human spaceflight programme.</p>
<h2>Surprise selection</h2>
<p>While UK was not contributing to the Esa human spaceflight programme, other member states were strong supporters. However, selections were open to all European citizens, and correctly so.</p>
<p>Fast forward to May 20, 2009, when I was <a href="https://www.esa.int/esapub/bulletin/bulletin135/bul135b_dipippo.pdf">Esa’s director of Human Spaceflight</a>. Officials and journalists were crowded into a room on the fourth floor of Esa’s headquarters at Rue Mario Nikis in Paris to hear the announcement of six new astronauts who would join the space agency. I had chaired the committee that had interviewed the group of 22 candidates who remained after a one year long selection process managed by the European Astronaut Center (EAC) in Germany. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Crew Dragon at the ISS." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557298/original/file-20231102-18-3wrr4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557298/original/file-20231102-18-3wrr4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557298/original/file-20231102-18-3wrr4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557298/original/file-20231102-18-3wrr4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557298/original/file-20231102-18-3wrr4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557298/original/file-20231102-18-3wrr4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557298/original/file-20231102-18-3wrr4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The all-UK mission is likely to use the Crew Dragon vehicle developed by SpaceX.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/spacex-crew-dragon-endeavour/">NASA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As I announced the six new astronauts, the room exploded at one name in particular: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjFfp7eJcpk">Tim Peake’s</a>. Considering that the UK was not involved in this optional programme, there were no expectations a British astronaut would be announced. But Peake was an exceptional candidate who deserved his selection. </p>
<p>Immediately afterwards, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Drayson,_Baron_Drayson">UK minister for science and innovation, Lord Drayson</a>, called Esa. As a result of this phone call, I rushed to Gare du Nord, took a train, and arrived in London for an unplanned meeting with the minister. Sometime later, the UK <a href="https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/ESA_astronaut_Timothy_Peake_set_for_ISS_999.html">joined Esa’s human spaceflight programme</a>.</p>
<h2>Rapid changes</h2>
<p>A lot has changed since 2009, however. Innovation in the area of spaceflight is increasing exponentially. Just look at the <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/">Starship programme</a> managed by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, or Jeff Bezos’ <a href="https://www.blueorigin.com/">Blue Origin</a>, which is developing new rockets and a new vehicle to land on the Moon. </p>
<p>The ISS’s lifetime has been extended until 2030 – after which it will be decommissioned, re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. However, commercial companies in the US are developing their own private space stations.</p>
<p>One of those companies is Axiom Space. Based in Houston, Axiom wants to build a space station <a href="https://www.axiomspace.com/axiom-station">that will be operational from 2028</a>. In its first phase, it will have two or more modules docked to the ISS. Once they are ready, the Axiom station will be detached so that it can function independently.</p>
<p>In preparation for their space station’s operations phase, Axiom has begun sending commercially funded missions to the ISS using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon vehicle. These have been commanded by ex-Nasa astronauts but carry non-professionals. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.axiomspace.com/missions/ax2">recent Ax2 mission</a>, for example, was commanded by ex-Nasa astronaut Peggy Whitson and carried a racing driver and investor, John Schoffner, who paid for his flight, as well as two Saudi Arabian commercial astronauts sponsored by the Saudi Space Commission. An upcoming mission, Ax3, will fly to the ISS in January 2024. </p>
<p>Ax4, expected to take place mid-2024, could be the target for this all-UK crew – although they might have to wait for a later mission.</p>
<h2>Opportunity knocks</h2>
<p>All of this is happening as Esa’s latest astronaut class, chosen in 2022 and the first since Peake’s intake in 2009, is being prepared for missions to low Earth orbit and later, beyond. In this new class are five career astronauts, 11 reserve astronauts reserve and one astronaut with a disability.</p>
<p>So the rise of the commercial astronaut provides access to space for countries that may not have a longstanding relationship with one of the big space agencies and therefore support the process of democratising space.</p>
<p>The benefits that come from the use of space-based data and infrastructure are increasingly evident, and more attention from the general public helps put space on the map for policy and decision makers in a virtuous circle.</p>
<p>Space is indispensable for <a href="https://www.ukri.org/news-and-events/responding-to-climate-change/topical-stories/how-space-science-can-help-us-combat-climate-change/">tackling climate change</a>, in <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/benefits-of-space/disasters.html">disaster management</a>, <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/psa/globalhealth/index.html">global health</a>, in agriculture, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/ames/what-are-nasas-technology-educational-satellites/">education</a>, <a href="https://digital-world.itu.int/space-for-change-satellites-in-the-service-of-digital-transformation/">digital transformation</a> and the green economy. </p>
<p>Therefore, a commercially funded mission to cost around £200m carrying UK-born commercial astronauts Rosemary Coogan (also selected as an Esa active astronaut), John McFall and Meganne Christian (who are Esa reserve astronauts) could be seen as a good investment. The mission will also undoubtedly produce good outcomes, including scientific results. </p>
<p>Peake will reportedly come out of retirement to lead this first all-UK astronaut mission, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34991335">following his last flight back in 2015</a>.</p>
<p>The space economy is a blooming flower that we must support in order for it to grow. The pay-off will benefit us all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216762/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simonetta Di Pippo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The agreement should give British astronauts more flights into space.
Simonetta Di Pippo, Director of the Space Economy Evolution Lab, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/215302
2023-10-10T06:12:47Z
2023-10-10T06:12:47Z
Nobel prize in economics: Claudia Goldin’s work is a goldmine for understanding the gender pay gap and women’s empowerment
<p>Women stirred up a “quiet revolution” in the labour market, according to Claudia Goldin, the Henry Lee Professor of Economics at Harvard University. She is the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2023/press-release/">2023 winner of the Nobel prize in economics</a> for her analysis of gender differences in the labour market, particularly the persistent problem of the gender pay gap. </p>
<p>“Most of her research interprets the present through the lens of the past and explores the origins of current issues of concern,” according to <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/goldin/biocv#:%7E:text=Most%20of%20her%20research%20interprets%20the%20present%20through%20the%20lens%20of%20the%20past%20and%20explores%20the%20origins%20of%20current%20issues%20of%20concern.">Goldin’s Harvard bio</a>. And this really does capture the essence of her work and how influential it has been. </p>
<p>As an economic historian, Goldin studies, documents and illuminates the <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/000282806777212350">changes</a> in female economic empowerment over time in labour markets, as well as the <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/goldin/publications/power-pill-oral-contraceptives-and-womens-career-and-marriage-decisions">causes</a> and <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/goldin/publications/grand-gender-convergence-its-last-chapter">challenges</a> ahead for all of us who want to make the world a more equal place in which to live and work.</p>
<p>Despite some progress, gender inequality remains a global concern. It varies across countries of course, but women’s participation in the labour market falls short of men’s <a href="https://genderdata.worldbank.org/data-stories/flfp-data-story/">everywhere in the world</a>. </p>
<p>And when women work, their wages fall short of men’s. If you want to understand what’s driving the dynamics of these gender gaps – and dig into their many facets – Goldin’s work is a goldmine. </p>
<p>The role of education, family and organisation of work are some of the themes explored in her research that explain the historical evolution of gender gaps in labour participation and wages.</p>
<h2>A quiet revolution</h2>
<p>Goldin coined the term “quiet revolution” to describe the dynamics of the gender gap in the labour market and the increase in labour force participation of married women in the US in the 1970s. She showed that there are two key ingredients to this quiet revolution: investment in education, and postponement of age at first marriage – the latter was helped along by the launch of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2007/sep/12/health.medicineandhealth#:%7E:text=It%20was%20approved%20for%20release,ages%20of%2016%20and%2049.">the contraceptive pill in the 1960s</a>. </p>
<p>As the average age at which women married increased over this time, going to college became a critical investment for them. They could plan for an independent future and form their identities before marriage and family. </p>
<p>This triggered a strong upswing in women’s participation in the labour market. And education is still critical for women’s participation to the labour market today. <a href="https://gpseducation.oecd.org/revieweducationpolicies/#!node=41763&filter=all:%7E:text=On%20average%20across%20OECD%20countries%2C%20higher%20educational%20attainment%20is%20associated%20with%20higher%20employment%20rates%20for%20each%20age%20group.">In most countries</a>, women with higher levels of education are more likely to be employed. </p>
<p>Family also strongly influences female labour force participation, with childbirth typically setting mothers and fathers on different paths – <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31649">children contribute</a> to gender gaps. Goldin’s work shows that the size of these “child penalties” (that is, the lower labour force participation of women compared to men) have shrunk over time. </p>
<p>But the penalty hasn’t vanished. Goldin and her coauthors’ research also shows the motherhood penalty declines over a woman’s lifetime, but the earnings gap between two heterosexual parents persists due to <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w30323">a fatherhood premium</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Line drawing of Claudia Goldin" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552809/original/file-20231009-29-a0j810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552809/original/file-20231009-29-a0j810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552809/original/file-20231009-29-a0j810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552809/original/file-20231009-29-a0j810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552809/original/file-20231009-29-a0j810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552809/original/file-20231009-29-a0j810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552809/original/file-20231009-29-a0j810.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harvard professor Claudia Goldin was awarded the 2023 Nobel for economics ‘for having advanced our understanding of women’s labor market outcomes’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nobelprize.qbank.se/mb/?h=f142eee16bc09dd5247dd753fd9ef889">Ill. Niklas Elmehed © Nobel Prize Outreach</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Flexible working patterns</h2>
<p>Examining how workplaces are organised and how that influences the gender gap is another key insight of Goldin’s work. According to her research, the gender pay gap would be <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.4.1091">considerably smaller</a> if firms did not disproportionately reward individuals who work long and particular hours. </p>
<p>Industries such as technology have seen changes in how work is organised that have enhanced employee flexibility, but this is not yet as common in the financial and legal worlds, for example. There is more work to do to promote gender equality and Goldin’s will help with this.</p>
<p>Goldin’s research mainly focuses on the US, but her approach and insights have influenced and inspired researchers across the world. Her work has helped to make gender an essential ingredient in understanding how labour markets work, as well as how the <a href="https://www.nber.org/programs-projects/projects-and-centers/gender-economy?page=1&perPage=50">economy</a> works more generally. </p>
<p>There is now a field of research called “gender economics” and we should certainly thank Claudia Goldin for that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215302/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alessandra Casarico receives funding from the Italian Ministry of University.
</span></em></p>
The Harvard professor was awarded the Nobel prize for economics for her work on women in the workforce.
Alessandra Casarico, Associate Professor of Public Economics, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/213475
2023-09-20T15:34:27Z
2023-09-20T15:34:27Z
The UK re-joining the Horizon research funding scheme benefits Europe too – the data backs it up
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549329/original/file-20230920-29-d80p8p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C0%2C6934%2C4637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/male-scientist-analyzes-studies-research-organic-2237778033">Amorn Suriyan / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK has <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-rejoins-eus-horizon-science-scheme/">just rejoined</a> the EU’s flagship research funding programmes, Horizon Europe and Copernicus. This is great news for science, the EU and the UK. </p>
<p>The reasons are simple: science progresses through the individual efforts of scholars and through <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048733398000547">international cooperative research</a>. The latter process involves different scientific institutions and organisations working towards common goals on a variety of different projects. </p>
<p>Science has never really been confined to what we define today as national borders. The life path of the astronomer <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Nicolaus-Copernicus">Nicolaus Copernicus</a>, provides a good example of this.</p>
<p>Copernicus was born in Torun, Poland, in 1473. After studying in Krakow, in his home country, he moved south, studying in the Italian cities of Rome and Padua. He ended up with a doctorate in canon law <a href="https://www.unife.it/en/unife-world/history">from the University of Ferrara</a>, also in Italy. </p>
<p>Afterwards, Copernicus moved back to Poland to further his studies. Here, he developed a model of the universe with the Sun at the centre, replacing the traditional model where the Earth was central. His <a href="https://www.pas.rochester.edu/%7Eblackman/ast104/copernican9.html">“Copernican model”</a> helped kick off the scientific revolution.</p>
<p>When the ability of researchers to work across borders is limited, <a href="https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/frozen-out-of-horizon-europe-swiss-science-feels-the-pinch/4015987.article">science suffers</a>. For this reason, Brexit has damaged the UK in terms of retaining European scholars. Some of the evidence comes from research using data on citations – the number of times a given scientific work has been mentioned in the literature by other researchers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-019.pdf">A study</a> led by Ebru Sanliturk at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany, which I participated in, showed that, in the three years following Brexit, scholars who originated in the EU almost doubled their likelihood of leaving the UK. On the other hand, researchers originally from the UK have become more likely to stay in their home country or move back from the EU to the UK.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="European Commission in Brussels." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549357/original/file-20230920-27-j8xen6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549357/original/file-20230920-27-j8xen6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549357/original/file-20230920-27-j8xen6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549357/original/file-20230920-27-j8xen6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549357/original/file-20230920-27-j8xen6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549357/original/file-20230920-27-j8xen6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549357/original/file-20230920-27-j8xen6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Horizon Europe deal gives UK scientists access to the world’s largest research collaboration programme.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/eu-flags-front-european-commission-brussels-162128453">Symbiot / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Why is this the case? One of the key EU funding agencies is the <a href="https://erc.europa.eu/homepage">European Research Council (ERC)</a>. It does something unusual: it funds research projects led by a scientist who is then free to change institution after the grant has been awarded. </p>
<p><a href="https://dashboard.tech.ec.europa.eu/qs_digit_dashboard_mt/public/sense/app/afe00964-3272-45c4-b60c-b64ed20d98d1/sheet/61a0bd1d-cd6d-4ac8-8b55-80d8661e44c0/state/analysis">ERC data shows that</a>, since 2007, 98 UK institutions have been awarded 2,397 projects and a total of more than four million euros. Put another way, the UK took 16% of all projects and total ERC funding. </p>
<p>The ERC has large individual grants: <a href="https://erc.europa.eu/apply-grant/starting-grant">between 1.5</a> and <a href="https://erc.europa.eu/apply-grant/advanced-grant">2.5 million euros</a> per project. It has contributed to raising the stakes in European science, and being awarded an ERC grant <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/apr/25/brexit-row-threatens-250m-in-uk-research-funding-from-eu">has become a badge of honour</a> for principal investigators – the scientists who lead research projects. </p>
<p>Moreover, <a href="https://erc.europa.eu/about-erc/erc-glance">12 ERC awardees</a> have received a Nobel Prize. The UK has benefited too, by attracting principal investigators from <a href="https://dashboard.tech.ec.europa.eu/qs_digit_dashboard_mt/public/sense/app/afe00964-3272-45c4-b60c-b64ed20d98d1/sheet/61a0bd1d-cd6d-4ac8-8b55-80d8661e44c0/state/analysis">59 different nationalities</a>.</p>
<h2>International networks</h2>
<p>In many scientific areas, Europe has a comparative advantage when it pools resources and minds. Networks of scholars and institutions make discoveries, push forward our knowledge and transform scientific findings into applications.</p>
<p>So EU institutions and scholars can significantly gain from interacting with UK-based scholars and institutions. The UK undoubtedly houses the top institutions in Europe in many fields. If we take the <a href="https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2024?&page=1">general top 20 ranking of universities</a> from the company QS (Quacquarelli Symonds), four UK institutions are included, one from Switzerland and none from the EU.</p>
<p>Research infrastructure – the facilities, equipment and tools used for science – are <a href="https://www.esfri.eu/esfri-events/esfri-20years-conference">fundamental to enabling discoveries</a>. Some of them are viable only by investing a large amount of money and resources. </p>
<p>In some cases, no single country in Europe can afford the infrastructure needed – one example is the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2012/07/05/how-much-does-it-cost-to-find-a-higgs-boson/">Large Hadron Collider at Cern</a>. The more members there are, the easier it is to spread the costs of such projects.</p>
<p>Another example is Copernicus, an <a href="https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Europe_s_Copernicus_programme">EU-funded Earth observation programme</a> using satellites to monitor the health of our planet. It provides open data, with everybody able to access it in real time – which is particularly useful in cases of environmental emergencies. As part of its deal to join Horizon Europe as an associate member, the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_23_4373">UK will become part of Copernicus</a>.</p>
<p>However, the UK has not negotiated an <a href="https://www.esfri.eu/people/delegates">associate membership of ESFRI</a>, the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures. ESFRI projects, such as the <a href="https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/">European Social Survey</a> and the <a href="https://share-eric.eu/">Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe</a>, provide important scientific insights. These translate into social and economic policy assessments by comparing results across countries – effectively using Europe as a natural laboratory. </p>
<p>So, there are potential wins and losses to everyone involved from the particular way the new deal has been negotiated between the EU and UK.</p>
<h2>Prospects for the future</h2>
<p>Some 17 countries are associate members of Horizon Europe, including science powerhouse Israel (which is a per capita <a href="https://dashboard.tech.ec.europa.eu/qs_digit_dashboard_mt/public/sense/app/afe00964-3272-45c4-b60c-b64ed20d98d1/sheet/61a0bd1d-cd6d-4ac8-8b55-80d8661e44c0/state/analysis">leader in receiving ERC research grants</a>), and major players such as Norway, as well as countries with large populations like Turkey and Ukraine. Switzerland, on the other hand, <a href="https://www.sbfi.admin.ch/sbfi/en/home/research-and-innovation/international-cooperation-r-and-i/eu-framework-programmes-for-research/horizon-europe.html">does not have associate member status</a> with Horizon Europe, but does collaborate with other research teams in Europe using other sources of funding.</p>
<p>Whether the UK’s relationship with the EU on science will evolve towards a strong and stable partnership model similar to the one of Israel or Norway, or towards a more ad hoc one like Switzerland’s, is hard to foresee. </p>
<p>If science and impact are key, a complementary, strong and stable partnership is in the interests of both the UK, the EU and other countries with associate membership of Horizon Europe. This can make us cautiously optimistic about the future for all parties.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213475/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Billari received funding from the European Research Council, Horizon Europe, and the Economic and Social Research Council (UK). </span></em></p>
Science works better when barriers to collaboration are removed, say experts.
Francesco Billari, Professor of Demography, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/209948
2023-07-25T06:08:59Z
2023-07-25T06:08:59Z
ChatGPT: pelajaran yang dapat dipetik dari larangan sementara ‘chatbot AI’ di Italia
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537868/original/file-20230717-207908-lfccx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Otoritas perlindungan data Italia menggunakan prosedur darurat untuk memberlakukan larangan sementara.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/girl-park-holding-smartphone-chatgpt-artificial-2274805377">Shutterstock / Diego Thomazini</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pada Maret 2023, Italia menjadi <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/03/31/openais-chatgpt-chatbot-banned-in-italy-by-watchdog-over-privacy-concerns">negara Barat pertama</a> yang memblokir <em>chatbot</em> canggih yang dikenal sebagai ChatGPT.</p>
<p>Otoritas perlindungan data Italia, <a href="https://www.garanteprivacy.it/web/garante-privacy-en">Garante</a>, mengutip kekhawatiran atas <a href="https://www.garanteprivacy.it/web/guest/home/docweb/-/docweb-display/docweb/9870847">perlindungan data pribadi</a> saat membuat keputusan ini. Garante memberikan waktu kepada <a href="https://openai.com">OpenAI</a>, perusahaan berbasis di California yang menciptakan <a href="https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt">ChatGPT</a>, hingga akhir April untuk memenuhi tuntutannya.</p>
<p>Garante mengatakan ChatGPT mengumpulkan data dengan cara yang tidak sesuai dengan hukum perlindungan data. Alasan lain yang diberikan adalah kurangnya verifikasi usia oleh platform tersebut, yang dapat membuat anak-anak terpapar konten berbahaya. Akibatnya, mereka menggunakan prosedur darurat untuk menghentikan sementara pemrosesan data pribadi oleh OpenAI.</p>
<p>Berita tentang larangan sementara ini <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/chatgpt-ban-germany-ai-privacy-b2314487.html">menyebar ke seluruh dunia</a>, <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/chatgpt-italy-ban-openai-trouble-in-europe-eu-gdpr-data-privacy/">menimbulkan kekhawatiran</a> tentang konsekuensi dari keputusan seperti ini pada pengembangan aplikasi kecerdasan buatan (AI) baru.</p>
<p>Langkah ini juga bertepatan dengan <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-65110030">seruan dari para ahli</a> dan pelaku bisnis - termasuk salah satu pendiri OpenAI, Elon Musk - untuk membatasi pengembangan aplikasi berbasis AI hingga risikonya dapat dinilai dengan lebih baik.</p>
<p>Larangan sementara ini dapat memberikan beberapa pelajaran penting mengenai proporsionalitas dan efektivitas larangan terhadap teknologi yang sedang berkembang, koordinasi antara negara-negara anggota di tingkat Eropa, dan penyeimbangan akses layanan untuk melindungi anak-anak agar tidak mengakses konten yang berbahaya.</p>
<p>Perintah yang dikeluarkan pada 30 Maret tersebut ditandatangani oleh Pasquale Stanzione, presiden otoritas perlindungan data Italia. Perintah ini dikeluarkan setelah adanya pemberitahuan tentang pelanggaran data terkait data pengguna ChatGPT yang telah dilaporkan sepuluh hari sebelumnya.</p>
<h2>Pemrosesan data</h2>
<p>Garante secara singkat membenarkan tindakannya dengan menggarisbawahi kurangnya informasi yang tersedia bagi pengguna, dan subjek data, tentang data yang diproses oleh OpenAI. Mereka juga mengutip pemrosesan data pribadi berskala besar untuk melatih sistem generatif seperti ChatGPT.</p>
<p>Persyaratan OpenAI menyatakan bahwa ChatGPT hanya disediakan untuk pengguna yang berusia di atas 13 tahun. Namun, hal ini tidak memuaskan otoritas perlindungan data Italia, yang prihatin dengan kurangnya verifikasi usia.</p>
<p>Tanggapan dari OpenAI adalah, pertama, memblokir akses ke ChatGPT di Italia dan, kedua, menunjukkan ketersediaannya untuk berkolaborasi dengan Garante dalam mematuhi perintah sementara.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Representasi privasi data." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dalam keputusannya, Garante mengutip pemrosesan data pribadi berskala besar untuk melatih sistem generatif seperti ChatGPT.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/businessman-use-laptop-interface-padlock-global-791823313">Shutterstock / Laymanzoom</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Kepatuhan ini melibatkan OpenAI untuk menerapkan perlindungan termasuk penyediaan kebijakan privasi, menawarkan kepada pengguna kemungkinan untuk menggunakan hak-hak individu atas perlindungan data, dan memberikan informasi tentang dasar hukum perusahaan untuk memproses data pribadi.</p>
<p>Garante menyambut baik komitmen ini. Garante menangguhkan perintah sementara dan meminta OpenAI untuk menerapkan perlindungan ini <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/chatgpt-italy-lift-ban-garante-privacy-gdpr-openai/">pada akhir April 2023</a>.</p>
<h2>Kerangka kerja yang diselaraskan</h2>
<p>Namun, kasus ini menyoroti setidaknya tiga pelajaran utama - yaitu kurangnya koordinasi Eropa dalam mengatur teknologi ini, efektivitas dan proporsionalitas tindakan, dan perlindungan anak-anak.</p>
<p>Pertama, diperlukan lebih banyak koordinasi Eropa terkait masalah umum teknologi AI. <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A52021PC0206">Usulan Undang-Undang Kecerdasan Buatan dari Uni Eropa</a> hanyalah satu langkah menuju kerangka kerja yang selaras untuk memastikan pengembangan teknologi kecerdasan buatan yang selaras dengan nilai-nilai Eropa. </p>
<p>Dan seperti yang telah ditunjukkan oleh larangan Italia, model peraturan Uni Eropa berpotensi menjadi terpecah-pecah jika otoritas nasional mengambil arahnya sendiri.</p>
<p>Secara khusus, hubungan antara kecerdasan buatan dan perlindungan data memberdayakan otoritas nasional untuk bertindak atas perkembangan teknologi kecerdasan buatan yang baru. Hal ini juga menggarisbawahi perlunya koordinasi yang lebih baik antara negara-negara anggota Eropa dalam segala jenis regulasi.</p>
<h2>Merencanakan, bukan melarang</h2>
<p>Kedua, langkah-langkah yang diadopsi oleh otoritas perlindungan data Italia menimbulkan pertanyaan tentang efektivitas dan proporsionalitas.</p>
<p>Mengenai efektivitas, perlu dicatat bahwa ada laporan <a href="https://www.techradar.com/news/vpn-downloads-skyrocket-following-italy-chatgpt-ban">lonjakan 400% dalam unduhan VPN</a> di Italia, yang berpotensi memungkinkan pengguna untuk menyiasati larangan tersebut, setelah berita tentang penerapan larangan sementara tersebut.</p>
<p>Mengenai masalah proporsionalitas, larangan umum tampaknya tidak menyeimbangkan antara kepentingan konstitusional yang saling bertentangan yang dipertaruhkan. Tindakan sementara ini tidak menyebutkan bagaimana hal tersebut memperhitungkan perlindungan kepentingan lain, seperti kebebasan pengguna untuk mengakses ChatGPT.</p>
<p>Meskipun larangan tersebut bersifat sementara, situasi ini mungkin diuntungkan oleh keterlibatan pada tahap awal oleh anggota dewan otoritas perlindungan data Italia lainnya. Diskusi awal dengan OpenAI dapat menghindari larangan itu sepenuhnya. Tindakan ini dapat mengantisipasi penerapan perlindungan lebih lanjut untuk mematuhi perlindungan data.</p>
<h2>Cara terbaik untuk melindungi anak-anak</h2>
<p>Akhirnya, keputusan tersebut menimbulkan pertanyaan tentang cara terbaik untuk melindungi anak-anak dari konten berbahaya yang dibuat oleh aplikasi-aplikasi ini. Memperkenalkan sistem verifikasi usia atau peringatan mengenai konten berbahaya dapat menjadi topik diskusi, seandainya para pihak terlibat dalam dialog yang berkelanjutan.</p>
<p>Kasus ini menjadi contoh bagaimana larangan umum yang diberlakukan terhadap aplikasi teknologi baru biasanya merupakan hasil dari reaksi cepat tanpa melibatkan penilaian mendalam terhadap efektivitas dan proporsionalitas tindakan tersebut.</p>
<p>Bahkan jika ada yang berargumen bahwa keputusan tersebut cenderung melindungi hak-hak dasar, terutama dalam perlindungan data dan perlindungan untuk anak-anak, hal ini justru menimbulkan lebih banyak ketidakpastian.</p>
<p>Pendekatan preventif dan kolaboratif dengan OpenAI akan meminimalkan risiko pemblokiran layanan ini di Italia. Diskusi berkelanjutan antara OpenAI dan pihak berwenang Italia sangat penting.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Rahma Sekar Andini dari Universitas Negeri Malang menerjemahkan artikel ini dari bahasa Inggris</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209948/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oreste Pollicino bertindak sebagai Pialang Jujur Independen untuk penyusunan kode baru Uni Eropa yang menentang disinformasi daring.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Giovanni De Gregorio adalah Ketua PLMJ di bidang Hukum dan Teknologi di Católica Global School of Law, Universidade Catolica Portuguesa, Lisbon.</span></em></p>
Pemblokiran ChatGPT di Italia menimbulkan beberapa pertanyaan penting, termasuk bagaimana menyeimbangkan akses ke layanan dengan mempertimbangkan perlindungan anak-anak
Oreste Pollicino, Professor of Constitutional Law, Bocconi University
Giovanni De Gregorio, PLMJ chair in law and technology at Católica Global School of Law and Católica Lisbon School of Law and academic fellow, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/204717
2023-07-20T14:00:05Z
2023-07-20T14:00:05Z
Netflix is gaining subscribers again – but here’s how it can succeed once people stop signing up
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538281/original/file-20230719-15-4ybzvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=65%2C57%2C5409%2C3598&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What's next for Netflix.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bangkok-thailand-may-28-2017-netflix-648328804">sitthiphong/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Netflix’s recent move to crack down on password sharing has <a href="https://ir.netflix.net/investor-news-and-events/investor-events/event-details/2023/Netflix-Second-Quarter-2023-Earnings-Interview/default.aspx">boosted subscriber numbers by nearly 6 million</a> in the last three months, for a total of 238 million subscribers globally. Netflix announced plans to limit sharing earlier this year after experiencing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisadellatto/2022/08/09/netflix-loses-subscribers-as-disney-catches-up-heres-how-the-major-streaming-services-are-faring-so-far-this-year/?sh=768428002a1c">its first subscriber loss in a decade</a> in 2022.</p>
<p>Its recent decision to offer <a href="https://www.theinformation.com/articles/netflix-signs-up-1-5-million-u-s-subscribers-for-ad-tier-so-far">cheaper, ad-supported tiers</a> has also played a role in this increase in account numbers. This will help to buoy the streaming giant amid <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/17/23798246/strike-hollywoods-writers-actors-wga-sag-aftra">strikes by actors and writers</a>, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/11/tech-industry-layoffs-2023/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIyQql_zFlZK49M4hJM63TAa9L2vyw2Xz5Xss5byPNtVHGLOKia2H36GcUUpuTqyZyaj0SoUr5cld4VaFVIf7hf27FFG5FO0HdtLHU36wv3HTP0TO417lmKIf0WGUbMuhumLXfsXnNf7YPV4mQBSj15sXXSYh2iLHE-NVtdjj5en">layoffs</a> and concerns about the effect of <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-streaming-subscriptions-fall-during-2022-12799102">the rising cost of living</a> on subscription spending. </p>
<p>In fact, Netflix’s leading position over a quarter of a century has already given it a solid advantage over an expanding field of competitors when it comes to attracting and keeping viewers. In March 2023, <a href="https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2023/march-madness-fuels-a-rebound-in-viewing-across-cable-in-march/">Netflix accounted for 7.3% of US TV watching time</a>, more than streaming services Prime Video, Disney+, HBO Max and US network NBCUniversal’s Peacock combined. </p>
<p>Netflix has achieved its position by attracting a large number of viewers and then using data about their viewing habits to constantly update its algorithm to improve their viewing experience. This strategy has also provided the company with the financial capability to switch from merely distributing content to actually creating its own shows and movies, such as Stranger Things (2016), House of Cards (2013) and Roma (2018).</p>
<p>But as the video streaming industry has become more competitive over the years, Netflix has had to keep changing its business model to survive. Regardless of its approach, a strategy called “<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/network-effect.asp#:%7E:text=The%20network%20effect%20refers%20to,that%20product%20or%20service%20increases.">network effects</a>” – when the value of a product grows in line with the number of customers – has played an important role in its success.</p>
<h2>Network effects</h2>
<p>Founded in 1997, Netflix started out sending DVDs by post. This subscription-based service came with <a href="https://ir.netflix.net/investor-news-and-events/financial-releases/press-release-details/2003/Netflix-Issued-Patent-On-Subscription-Rental-Service/default.aspx">a US$19.95 (£15.42) price tag</a> and no due dates or late fees. </p>
<p>The relatively low price helped build an initial critical mass of users, triggering a network effect. As more users joined the platform, the company could buy more content. This benefited existing users and attracts new ones. It linked the value of signing up to the number of users. </p>
<p>Netflix moved on to streaming films and shows via the internet <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/innovation-strategy-netflix-lacroix-and-first-mover-advantage-risk-2019-7?r=US&IR=T">ten years after launch</a> – <a href="https://sloanreview.mit.edu/strategy-forum/have-uber-and-netflix-lost-their-first-mover-advantage/">well before potential competitors</a>. Again, it used the knowledge it had developed in the video content delivery market and data from its already large subscriber base to kickstart its online streaming offering.</p>
<p>Since then, <a href="https://hbr.org/2005/04/the-half-truth-of-first-mover-advantage">Netflix’s business model</a> has continued to be strengthened by network effects. It has helped boost the company’s investment in its own content, as well as strengthening the algorithm it uses to suggest what you should watch next.</p>
<h2>Conquering content</h2>
<p>Directors want their movies to be seen by the largest possible audience, while at the same time receiving a high price for their creations. Netflix’s large base of users means it can spread the cost of a show over a large number of users, providing content creators with <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1177443">indirect network effects</a>. It also triggers a virtuous cycle for users, who return to the platform thanks to the growing amount and variety of content. </p>
<p>Netflix’s own content creation has built on this. Starting with Lilyhammer in 2012, it diversified its business model, from simple distribution to become a producer of very successful and popular TV shows, including <a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/the_crown">The Crown</a> (2016) and <a href="https://theconversation.com/dystopian-games-how-contemporary-stories-critique-capitalism-through-deadly-competition-199835">Squid Game</a> (2021). It also started producing high-quality, award-winning movies such as <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1302006/">The Irishman</a> (2019) and <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1070874/">The Trial of the Chicago 7 </a>(2020).</p>
<figure>
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</figure>
<p>Between 2020 and 2022, Netflix’s original productions were the most in-demand originals worldwide. It had <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1248406/vod-services-most-in-demand-original-series-worldwide/">a 45.2% share of the market</a> in the first quarter of 2022, although this was <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/19/netflix-shares-down-more-than-20-after-losing-200000-subscribers-in-first-quarter/#:%7E:text=Netflix's%20market%20share%20has%20dropped,U.S%2C%20according%20to%20Parrot%20Analytics.">a drop from previous quarters</a>. An increase in <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/250934/quarterly-number-of-netflix-streaming-subscribers-worldwide/">the number of subscribers</a> over the longer term has allowed the company to invest more in the development of proprietary content, in turn attracting more subscribers. </p>
<p>This is the essence of positive network effects: people watch Netflix content and it analyses the resulting data to learn about customer preferences and behaviour as they do so. This feeds back into the creation of content that is tailored to what the audience wants to see. Of course, Netflix has also been investing in sophisticated technologies over this period to develop its algorithm so it can make decisions about whether to continue or cancel a show or make a movie. </p>
<h2>Growing competition</h2>
<p>The streaming sector <a href="https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/digital-media/video-on-demand/video-streaming-svod/worldwide#users:%7E:text=SUBSCRIBERS%20BY%20SERVICE">is maturing</a> as subscriber numbers stabilise for most providers.</p>
<p>No longer able to count on large flows of new users, Netflix must increase revenues from existing users. It started by creating a basic subscription, which includes advertising and cannot be shared, as well as standard and premium subscriptions. The latter do not have advertising and allow subscribers to add other people at reduced rates. This business model is similar to <a href="https://www.pocket-lint.com/apps/news/spotify/137686-spotify-s-family-plan-is-much-cheaper-now-here-s-what-you-need-to-know/">Spotify’s family plans</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hand holding red mug that says " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538279/original/file-20230719-21-6nzu90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538279/original/file-20230719-21-6nzu90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538279/original/file-20230719-21-6nzu90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538279/original/file-20230719-21-6nzu90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538279/original/file-20230719-21-6nzu90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538279/original/file-20230719-21-6nzu90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538279/original/file-20230719-21-6nzu90.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/watching-series-cup-tea-just-one-771067423">Nicolas Maderna/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The company is witnessing an increasing churn rate as its users switch to new competitors – last year it was overtaken by Disney in terms of number of users. Netflix still <a href="https://nscreenmedia.com/netflix-versus-hulu-versus-disney-plus/#:%7E:text=Comscore%20reported%20on%20watch%20time,and%20Disney%2B%20watched%2013%20hours.">leads the market</a> on revenue per subscriber and time spent on the platform, however. </p>
<p>As the streaming sector continues to mature, Netflix’s next challenge will be to continue to engage existing users of its platform by investing this money into creating high-quality shows and films. Indeed, according to its latest results, Netflix’s yearly free cash flow – money it has to spend on things like content – has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/19/netflix-earnings-show-strength-amid-media-chaos.html">passed previous estimates</a> of US$3.5 billion to reach US$5 billion. </p>
<p>Viewers around the world should keep an eye out for what Netflix will produce next to keep its user base entertained.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204717/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicoletta Corrocher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Netflix’s different subscription packages are designed to increase profits, while it keeps users engaged with a steady flow of new content devised via its algorithm.
Nicoletta Corrocher, Lecturer in applied economics, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/208410
2023-07-05T09:53:00Z
2023-07-05T09:53:00Z
How preventive healthcare could save the NHS – lessons from Finland, Japan and Singapore
<p>If it’s true that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, preventive healthcare might really save the embattled NHS – now celebrating its 75th anniversary.</p>
<p>By promoting healthy lifestyles, early disease detection and timely treatment, the NHS could reduce chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes, heart disease and cancer. And reducing the number of people with these chronic conditions would lead to a significant decrease in healthcare spending – which has been <a href="https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/funding/health-funding-data-analysis">steadily rising</a> in real terms since the NHS was founded. </p>
<p>The decision to follow this path wouldn’t seem so difficult if it weren’t for the small problem of figuring out how to do it and to what extent. </p>
<h2>How?</h2>
<p>Starting with the how, there are a few countries to look to for “best practice”. <a href="https://toolbox.finland.fi/life-society/finlands-healthcare-system/">Finland</a>, <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/9789264311602-6-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/9789264311602-6-en">Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.hpb.gov.sg/healthy-living">Singapore</a>, for example, have implemented preventive programmes that focus on promoting healthy lifestyles, early disease detection through national screening programmes and disease management while paying attention to health education and public health campaigns. </p>
<p>Finland, meanwhile, has one of the lowest rates of cardiovascular disease in <a href="https://ehnheart.org/cvd-statistics/cvd-statistics-2017.html">Europe</a>, which has been attributed to the country’s comprehensive preventive healthcare initiatives. </p>
<p>The number of smokers among Finnish adults has decreased significantly <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35722986/#:%7E:text=Results%3A%20Smoking%20in%20Finland%20has,decrease%20to%2016%25%20in%202017.">over the past few decades</a>, thanks to government policies that discourage smoking. Under the Tobacco Act (2010) Finland aims to be tobacco and nicotine-free by 2030. </p>
<p>Finland was the first country to set such a goal in its national legislation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="No smoking sign" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535482/original/file-20230704-22-v6w5ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535482/original/file-20230704-22-v6w5ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535482/original/file-20230704-22-v6w5ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535482/original/file-20230704-22-v6w5ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535482/original/file-20230704-22-v6w5ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535482/original/file-20230704-22-v6w5ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535482/original/file-20230704-22-v6w5ik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Finland has been very successful at stamping out smoking.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/no-smoking-prohibited-signs-public-houses-1908161155">Chalermphon Srisang/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Singapore has been as successful as the Finns at getting the public <a href="https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/smoking-prevalence-in-s'pore-population-dropped-from-13.9-in-2010-to-10.1-in-2020#:%7E:text=These%20efforts%20have%20contributed%20to,10.1%20per%20cent%20in%202020.">to quit smoking</a>. It also has one of the lowest death rates from cardiovascular diseases <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cardiovascular-disease-death-rates?tab=table&country=%7ESGP">in the world</a>. </p>
<p>And Japan has one of the highest life expectancies in the <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?most_recent_value_desc=true">world</a> and one of the lowest rates of people with metabolic syndrome (a group of risk factors for diabetes and heart disease) because of the country’s focus on healthy lifestyles. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/9789264311602-6-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/9789264311602-6-en#:%7E:text=The%20Health%20Japan%2021%20strategy%20provides%20a%20nation%2Dwide%20framework,smoking%20cessation%20and%20alcohol%20consumption.">Health Japan 21 strategy</a>, for instance, provides a nationwide framework to improve population health through interventions in workplaces, schools and local communities, focusing on diets, physical activity, smoking cessation and reducing alcohol consumption.</p>
<h2>How much?</h2>
<p>If the “how” sounds clear, the “how much” (to what extent and to what budget) is a little less clear. In the three countries mentioned, there have been very few studies on the economic impact of their preventive healthcare programmes. </p>
<p>In Finland, there is good evidence of the effectiveness of the <a href="https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/finland-country-health-profile-2021_2e74e317-en#page12">Tobacco Act</a> and <a href="https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/finland-country-health-profile-2021_2e74e317-en#page13">cancer screening programmes</a> on health, but the impact on healthcare expenditure is unclear. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533674/original/file-20230623-7118-vgag2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533674/original/file-20230623-7118-vgag2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533674/original/file-20230623-7118-vgag2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533674/original/file-20230623-7118-vgag2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533674/original/file-20230623-7118-vgag2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533674/original/file-20230623-7118-vgag2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533674/original/file-20230623-7118-vgag2i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>To mark the 75th anniversary of the launch of the NHS, we’ve commissioned <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/how-to-fix-the-nhs-140880?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UKNHSseries">a series of articles</a> addressing the biggest challenges the service now faces. We want to understand not only what needs to change, but the knock-on effects on other parts of this extraordinarily complex health system.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>In Singapore, the government frequently holds <a href="https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/preventive-care-spending-and-impact">question-and-answer sessions</a> on the costs of preventive healthcare and the impact of these programmes. While the evidence is stronger on the first question, not much is known about the effect of preventive health interventions on overall population health.</p>
<p>In Japan, <a href="https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/houdou/0000121935.html">a 2018 study</a> found that a check-up programme on diabetes prevented many people from starting dialysis treatment and reduced their healthcare use. According to this study, the healthcare spending of the participants in the programme was reduced by 20% between 2014 and 2015. But it is not known whether the study included the cost of targeted programmes when calculating the change in healthcare costs.</p>
<h2>Measure, measure, measure</h2>
<p>Maybe there’s something more the UK can learn from Japan, Finland and Singapore: if you’re going to invest in prevention, you need comprehensive measures of their effectiveness and efficiency.</p>
<p>So what should the UK measure? Assuming the goal of such a programme is to help people feel better while reducing NHS costs, the following would be useful things to track.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Key preventive measures (such as data on vaccinations, screenings and preventive treatments) and risk factors (such as lifestyle choices, family history of diseases and demographics).</p></li>
<li><p>Information about health education and relevant health indicators to identify areas for improvement.</p></li>
<li><p>Outcomes, effects (such as disease incidence, hospital admission rates and overall population health improvements), costs and resource use.</p></li>
<li><p>Trends and predictions to forecast future healthcare needs. Identify emerging health risks and plan preventive interventions. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>And, most importantly, this information should be collected at the patient level to better measure the effects and to understand engagement with the programmes. Because an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure only if it’s true for each of us.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208410/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesca Lecci does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Finland aims to be tobacco free by 2030. Could the UK do more to keep the population healthy?
Francesca Lecci, Associate Professor of Practice in Government, Health and Not for Profit, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/207057
2023-06-20T08:51:47Z
2023-06-20T08:51:47Z
Why US ‘dollar doomsayers’ could be wrong about its imminent demise
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531167/original/file-20230609-15-iblgu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=107%2C83%2C7748%2C4371&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">phanurak rubpol/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The position of the US dollar in <a href="https://data.imf.org/?sk=e6a5f467-c14b-4aa8-9f6d-5a09ec4e62a4">the global league table of foreign exchange reserves</a> held by other countries is closely watched. Every <a href="https://uk.style.yahoo.com/natural-way-diversify-janet-yellen-125500087.html#:%7E:text=Fed%20decides%20to%20pause%3A%20Impact%20on%20investors%2C%20markets&text=The%20U.S.%20dollar%20saw%20an,days%20of%20dominance%20are%20over.">slight fall in its share</a> is interpreted as confirmation of its imminent demise as <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/06/08/expect-us-dollars-dominance-to-stay-for-foreseeable-future-moodys.html">the preferred global currency</a> for financial transactions. </p>
<p>The recent drama surrounding <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/170703/debt-ceiling-dollar-reserve-currency">negotiations about raising the limit on US federal government debt</a> has only fuelled these predictions by “dollar doomsayers”, who believe <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/debt-ceiling.asp#:%7E:text=Debt%20Ceiling%20Showdowns%20and%20Shutdowns">repeated crises over the US government’s borrowing limit</a> weakens the country’s perceived stability internationally. </p>
<p>But the real foundation of its dominance is global trade – and it would be very complicated to turn the tide of these many transactions away from the US dollar.</p>
<p>The international role of a global currency in financial markets is ultimately based on its use in non-financial transactions, especially as <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/07/17/Patterns-in-Invoicing-Currency-in-Global-Trade-49574">what’s called an “invoicing currency” in trade</a>. This is the currency in which a company charges its customers. </p>
<h2>Global network of supply and trade</h2>
<p>Modern trade can involve many financial transactions. Today’s supply chains often see goods shipped across several borders, and that’s after they are produced using a combination of intermediate inputs, usually from different countries. </p>
<p>Suppliers may also only get paid after delivery, meaning they have to finance production beforehand. Obtaining this financing in the currency in which they invoice makes trade easier and more cost effective. </p>
<p>In fact, it would be very inconvenient for all participants in a value chain if the invoicing and financing of each element of the chain happened in a different currency. Similarly, if most trade is invoiced and financed in one currency (the US dollar at present), even banks and firms outside the US have an incentive to denominate and settle financial transactions in that currency. </p>
<p>This status quo becomes difficult to change because no individual organisation along the chain has an incentive to switch currencies if others aren’t doing the same. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-that-the-super-strong-us-dollar-could-hurt-the-world-economy-186654">Five ways that the super-strong US dollar could hurt the world economy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This is why the US dollar is <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd201210_e.pdf">the most widely used currency in third-country transactions</a> – those that don’t even involve the US. In such situations it’s called a vehicle currency. The euro is used mainly in the vicinity of Europe, whereas the US dollar is widely used <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23352320">in international trade among Asian countries</a>. Researchers call this <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20171201">the dominant currency paradigm</a>.</p>
<p>The convenience of using the US dollar, even outside its home country, is further buttressed by the openness and size of US financial markets. They make up <a href="https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/178e6643-6ae6-47b9-82be-e1fc565ededb">36% of the world’s total</a> or five times more than the euro area’s markets. Most trade-related financial transactions <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/trade/greasing-wheels-commerce-trade-finance-and-credit">involve the use of short-term credit</a>, like using a credit card to buy something. As a result, the banking systems of many countries must then be at least partially based on the dollar so they can provide this short-term credit. </p>
<p>And so, these banks need to invest in the US financial markets to refinance themselves in dollars. They can then provide this to their clients as dollar-based short-term loans.</p>
<p>It’s fair to say, then, that the US dollar has not become the premier global currency only because of US efforts to foster its use internationally. It will also continue to dominate as long as private organisations engaged in international trade and finance find it the most convenient currency to use.</p>
<h2>What could knock the US dollar off its perch?</h2>
<p>Some governments such as that of China might try to offer alternatives to the US dollar, but they are unlikely to succeed. </p>
<p>Government-to-government transactions, for example for crude oil between China and Saudi Arabia, could be denominated in yuan. But then the Saudi government would have to find something to do with the Chinese currency it receives. Some could be used to pay for imports from China, but <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/country/sau/?yearlyTradeFlowSelector=flow0">Saudi Arabia imports</a> a lot less from China (about US$30 billion) than it exports (about US$49 billion) to the country.</p>
<p>The US$600 billion <a href="https://www.pif.gov.sa/en/Pages/AboutPIF.aspx">Public Investment Fund</a> (PIF), Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, could of course use the yuan to invest in China. But this is difficult on a large scale because Chinese currency remains only partially “convertible”. This means that the Chinese authorities still control many transactions in and out of China, so that the PIF might not be able to use its yuan funds as and when it needs them. Even without convertibility restrictions, few private investors, and even fewer western investment funds, would be keen to put a lot of money into China if they are at the mercy of the Communist party.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/war-in-ukraine-might-give-the-chinese-yuan-the-boost-it-needs-to-become-a-major-global-currency-and-be-a-serious-contender-against-the-us-dollar-205519">War in Ukraine might give the Chinese yuan the boost it needs to become a major global currency -- and be a serious contender against the US dollar</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>China is of course the country with the strongest political motives to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar. A natural first step would be for China to diversify its foreign exchange reserves away from the US by investing in other countries. But this is easier said than done. </p>
<p>There are few opportunities to invest hundreds or thousands of billions of dollars outside of the US. <a href="https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/c1?f=pdf">Figures from the Bank of International Settlements</a> show that the euro area bond market – a place for investors to finance loans to Euro area companies and governments – is worth less than one third of that of the US. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Full-colour US dollar and Chinese yuan notes torn in half and pictured beside each other over a grey map of the world." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531169/original/file-20230609-5641-6c2xc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531169/original/file-20230609-5641-6c2xc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531169/original/file-20230609-5641-6c2xc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531169/original/file-20230609-5641-6c2xc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531169/original/file-20230609-5641-6c2xc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531169/original/file-20230609-5641-6c2xc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531169/original/file-20230609-5641-6c2xc8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NothingIsEverything/Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Also, in any big crisis, other major OECD economies like Europe and Japan are more likely to side with the US than China – making such a decision is even easier when they are using US dollars for trade. It was said that states <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/much-global-south-ukraines-side">accounting for one half of the global population</a> refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but this half does not account for a large share of global financial markets. </p>
<p>Similarly, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that democracies dominate the world financially. Companies and financial markets require trust and a well-established rule of law. Non-democratic regimes have no basis for establishing the rule of law and every investor is ultimately subject to the whims of the ruler.</p>
<p>When it comes to global trade, currency use is underpinned by a self-reinforcing network of transactions. Because of this, and the size of the US financial market, the dollar’s dominant position remains something for the US to lose rather for others to gain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207057/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Gros does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
So much international trade happens in dollars that it would be very difficult to turn the tide against the currency any time soon.
Daniel Gros, Professor of Practice and Director of the Institute for European Policymaking, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/207590
2023-06-12T20:01:25Z
2023-06-12T20:01:25Z
Silvio Berlusconi: el promotor inmobiliario que se convirtió en el primer ministro más extravagante de Italia
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531457/original/file-20230612-219601-ffcwgn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=197%2C52%2C3672%2C2526&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/october-6-2008-berlin-italian-prime-164775962">360b/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Silvio Berlusconi, fallecido a los 86 años, nació en una familia de clase media de Milán, ciudad muy afectada por la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Asistió a un colegio privado perteneciente a una orden religiosa, y acabó licenciándose en Derecho en 1961. Se especializó en contratos publicitarios, un área que, sin duda, le resultó muy útil en su posterior carrera.</p>
<p>Cuando Berlusconi alcanzó la mayoría de edad, Italia estaba entrando en su “milagro” económico de posguerra. Inmediatamente después de graduarse, emprendió con éxito una serie de iniciativas empresariales en el floreciente sector de la construcción.</p>
<p>A los 30 años, Berlusconi concibió un proyecto revolucionario y visionario: la construcción de una zona residencial en la periferia norte de Milán llamada <a href="https://www.archilovers.com/projects/19955/milano-2.html">Milano 2</a>. La idea era ofrecer viviendas espaciosas y de alto nivel en las afueras de la ciudad que contrastaran con una metrópolis cada vez más abarrotada y contaminada.</p>
<p>El proyecto se adelantó a su tiempo al comercializar propiedades “exclusivas” a una creciente clase media que buscaba escapar del centro de la ciudad sin alejarse demasiado. Tuvo un gran éxito, que propulsó rápidamente a Edilnord (la constructora de Berlusconi) a las grandes ligas y le permitió diversificarse bajo el paraguas de un holding financiero: Fininvest.</p>
<p>En la década de 1980, Berlusconi había recibido la Orden al Mérito del Trabajo y el apodo informal de Il Cavaliere (El Caballero) por su espíritu emprendedor.</p>
<h2>Construir un imperio</h2>
<p>Entretanto, aprovechando que a mediados de los años 70 la difusión de vídeo dejaba al fin de ser un monopolio estatal en Italia, Berlusconi decidió invertir en televisión. Creó una empresa de medios de comunicación que emitía tres canales en toda Italia (Canale 5, Italia 1 y Rete 4). Todo ello con el apoyo del agresivo brazo publicitario de la empresa, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1081180x96001001007?casa_token=Vv9z3UMWpNkAAAAA:Rfax3PVP1iWs3VgbIPsYmXEP3W5oxs7tv8FsjcjH5Jndjeq8Wtkw-LMYNJjKCMn9yjDUe79Swfo">Publitalia</a>. </p>
<p>El imperio mediático de Berlusconi (complementado con la adquisición en 1984 de Arnoldo Mondadori, la editorial más importante del país) se convirtió en el único competidor real de la RAI, la televisión pública. La capacidad personal de Berlusconi para atraer a las estrellas de televisión más populares de la época indudablemente ayudó, al igual que lo hicieron sus contactos personales en el gobierno. </p>
<p>Esto le convirtió en una figura omnipresente en la sociedad italiana. Pero su popularidad se disparó a mediados de los ochenta, cuando se añadió a su corona una joya de gran valor: <a href="https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/32459016/berlusconi_brand_cosentino_doyle-libre.pdf?1391104221%20=&response-content-disposition=inline%3B+filename%3DSilvio_Berlusconi_Una_Marca_Man.%20pdf&Expires=1681304350&Signature=QO2mn516F4H7-6DztxorL-i4cFEXA5wkJ3K-HEsIdoZ0OwodR9xLVVrUTBdQrvYXmsLnQDYlGcKRif5Ub4knzpL3381pMT9i5KzCGK8zepxRl912dShRUdU5W2fAl2NtLdY4j%7EZcrMi4lkGOSNgLlMreKxS-.%20BfMZx2LATxeFipd5HB74FOMA0ho2Ixi702Fi060IHGXO6Z%7ET8SFQBPyz8bMVw%7EFB1B1ddEqZRVTEEYI%7EhAK8vao0zSP%7ESBdZ9FGKFtSfx8qCaPOaP%7EoONT7s1fxcEAm4G08sGmIzwtXJ1GLwPsS7bDA9p7ced9wbE36synoeCMUxwffFdsuUz9hoSw__&Key-%20Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA">el club de fútbol AC Milan</a>. Con Berlusconi, el club pasó de ser un simple equipo nacional a convertirse en una marca internacional. </p>
<p>Así, en los 15 años que siguieron al exitoso proyecto del Milano 2, Berlusconi consiguió levantar un imperio empresarial que abarcaba la construcción, la banca y los seguros, la televisión y la publicidad, la edición, el deporte e incluso los supermercados. En sólo un par de décadas, el magnate italiano había transformado Fininvest en la octava empresa italiana por volumen de negocio.</p>
<h2>De intruso a primer ministro</h2>
<p>A pesar de este notable éxito –y de su notoria habilidad para los negocios–, al principio Berlusconi no fue recibido con entusiasmo en los salones de la élite empresarial del país. Ésta tendía a considerarlo, en el mejor de los casos, un útil advenedizo. Quizá en parte eso explica lo que impulsó a un personaje ya de por sí individualista a buscar una nueva manera de destacar.</p>
<p>A principios de los años 90, Berlusconi se convirtió en un “empresario político”. En aquella época, el escándalo <a href="https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/28117/chapter-abstract/212268180?redirectedFrom=fulltext">“Tangentopoli”</a> había sacado a la luz una corrupción profundamente arraigada entre los políticos nacionales y regionales. </p>
<p>Aquellas revelaciones arrasaron con partidos políticos enteros. El viejo sistema de partidos se puso patas arriba, dejando un vacío institucional. Berlusconi aprovechó para llenar ese vacío creando un nuevo partido político prácticamente de la noche a la mañana, apoyándose en su prestigio empresarial y el poder de comunicación de su imperio mediático. </p>
<p>Tras forjar una <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402380500310600">alianza</a> con dos socios diferentes de derecha y extrema derecha, Berlusconi fue elegido Primer Ministro por primera vez en 1994. Comenzaba así una larga etapa en el poder como jefe de coaliciones y alianzas de la derecha. Al final, repitió como primer ministro tres veces: de 1994 a 1995, de 2001 a 2006 y de 2008 a 2011.</p>
<p>Berlusconi era reconocido como un político carismático, y las campañas electorales que le llevaron al gobierno se centraron, inevitablemente, en su persona. Sin embargo, como estadista resultaba menos convincente. Carecía de una visión a largo plazo para Italia, tanto en términos de Estado como de desarrollo económico. </p>
<p>En sus dos décadas en el poder, el PIB italiano se mantuvo en línea con el del resto de Europa, pero la competitividad del país, medida en términos de exportación, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43039816">disminuyó constantemente</a>. Esto se reflejó en un generoso aumento del gasto público, a pesar de las tendencias neoliberales de los gobiernos de Berlusconi.</p>
<p>La política de Berlusconi siempre dio prioridad a las relaciones personales por encima de las institucionales. A ello contribuyó un persistente conflicto de intereses entre su papel de primer ministro del país y el de monarca <em>de facto</em> de un imperio empresarial apoyado, en gran medida, en la televisión comercial y la publicidad. </p>
<p>Como político no actuaba de forma diferente a como lo hacía en su vida empresarial: dirigía sus gobiernos con una energía increíble pero evitando delegar. </p>
<p>Pero mientras Berlusconi fue capaz de colocar a sus hijos mayores Marina y Piersilvio en los puestos más altos de su imperio empresarial, no ha sido capaz de encontrar un sucesor igual de carismático para su proyecto político.</p>
<h2>Todo se perdona, una y otra vez</h2>
<p>Los italianos perdonaron muchas de las payasadas del extravagante Berlusconi, sobre todo <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64653128">su comportamiento a veces poco convencional</a> en su vida privada. Probablemente obtuvo más indulgencia del público de la que merecía y, desde luego, mucha más de la que el sistema judicial estaba dispuesto a concederle, como quedó claro en su <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/15/silvio-berlusconi-community-service-sentence-tax-fraud">condena</a> por fraude fiscal. </p>
<p>Mientras él se libraba de una causa judicial por presuntas relaciones sexuales con una menor, otros fueron condenados por <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/11994528/Italian-businessman-and-glamour-model-convicted-of-recruiting-prostitutes-for-Berlusconis-parties.html">reclutar prostitutas para sus fiestas</a>.</p>
<p>Incluso ahora, después de su muerte, es difícil formarse una idea definitiva de Berlusconi y de su verdadero papel en la historia reciente de Italia. Su propia vida es un emblema de un país creativo capaz de resurgir de repente. </p>
<p>Pero también podría decirse que representa negativamente a Italia, desgraciadamente incapaz, con demasiada frecuencia, de generar una visión de futuro basada en algo más que en intereses egoístas individuales.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207590/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Colli no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.</span></em></p>
A pesar de haber ocupado el cargo durante tres legislaturas distintas, sigue siendo difícil forjarse una opinión definitiva sobre el difunto Primer Ministro italiano Berlusconi.
Andrea Colli, Full Professor, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/203601
2023-06-12T10:59:05Z
2023-06-12T10:59:05Z
Silvio Berlusconi: the property developer who became a media tycoon – and Italy’s most flamboyant prime minister
<p>Silvio Berlusconi, who has died at the age of 86, was born into a middle-class family in Milan, a city heavily affected by the second world war. He attended a private school belonging to a religious order, and eventually graduated with distinction in law in 1961, specialising in advertising contracts, an area that would of course prove extremely useful in his later careers.</p>
<p>As Berlusconi came of age, Italy was entering its postwar economic “miracle”. And immediately after his graduation, he started a series of successful entrepreneurial initiatives in a booming construction industry.</p>
<p>In his early 30s, Berlusconi conceived of a revolutionary and visionary project, the construction of a residential area in the northern outskirts of Milan called <a href="https://www.archilovers.com/projects/19955/milano-2.html">Milano 2</a>. The idea was to offer high standard, spacious homes in new areas on the outskirts of the city that contrasted with an increasingly crowded and polluted metropolis.</p>
<p>The project was ahead of its time in marketing “exclusive” property to a growing middle class looking to escape the inner city but remain close by. It proved a significant success, which quickly propelled Edilnord (Berlusconi’s construction company) into the big leagues and enabled it to diversify under the umbrella of a financial holding company, Fininvest.</p>
<p>By the 1980s, Berlusconi had received the Order of Merit of Labor and the informal nickname “Il Cavaliere” (the Knight) for his entrepreneurship.</p>
<h2>Building an empire</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, as video broadcasting was being commercialised for the first time in Italy in the mid-1970s (having previously been a state monopoly), Berlusconi started investing in TV.</p>
<p>He set up a media company that transmitted three channels across Italy (Canale 5, Italia 1 and Rete 4). All this was supported by the company’s aggressive advertising arm, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1081180x96001001007?casa_token=Vv9z3UMWpNkAAAAA:Rfax3PVP1iWs3VgbIPsYmXEP3W5oxs7tv8FsjcjH5Jndjeq8Wtkw-LMYNJjKCMn9yjDUe79Swfo">Publitalia</a>. </p>
<p>Berlusconi’s media empire (complemented by the acquisition in 1984 of Arnoldo Mondadori, the most important publishing house in the country) became the sole real competitor of RAI, the state-owned television company. Berlusconi’s personal ability to attract the most popular TV stars of the time certainly helped, as did personal connections in the government. </p>
<p>This made him a pervasive figure in Italian society, but his popularity skyrocketed in the mid-1980s when a highly valuable jewel was added to his crown: <a href="https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/32459016/berlusconi_brand_cosentino_doyle-libre.pdf?1391104221=&response-content-disposition=inline%3B+filename%3DSilvio_Berlusconi_One_Man_Brand.pdf&Expires=1681304350&Signature=QO2mn516F4H7-6DztxorL-i4cFEXA5wkJ3K-HEsIdoZ0OwodR9xLVVrUTBdQrvYXmsLnQDYlGcKRif5Ub4knzpL3381pMT9i5KzCGK8zepxRl912dShRUdU5W2fAl2NtLdY4j%7EZcrMi4lkGOSNgLlMreKxS-BfMZx2LATxeFipd5HB74FOMA0ho2Ixi702Fi060IHGXO6Z%7ET8SFQBPyz8bMVw%7EFB1B1ddEqZRVTEEYI%7EhAK8vao0zSP%7ESBdZ9FGKFtSfx8qCaPOaP%7EoONT7s1fxcEAm4G08sGmIzwtXJ1GLwPsS7bDA9p7ced9wbE36synoeCMUxwffFdsuUz9hoSw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA">AC Milan football club</a>. This was already a highly strategic move given Italy’s national obsession with the game, but Berlusconi quickly set about turning Milan from a domestic team into an international brand. </p>
<p>In the 15 years that followed the successful project of Milano 2, Berlusconi had built a business empire that spanned construction, banking and insurance, TV and advertising, publishing, sport and even supermarkets. In just a couple of decades, Berlusconi had transformed Fininvest into Italy’s eighth largest company by turnover.</p>
<h2>From outsider to prime minister</h2>
<p>Despite this remarkable success – and his notorious business skill – Berlusconi was neither immediately nor eagerly welcomed into the drawing rooms of the country’s entrepreneurial elite, who tended to consider him at best a useful upstart. This is perhaps partially what drove an already individualistic character to seek a new level of primacy.</p>
<p>At the beginning of the 1990s, Berlusconi turned himself into a “political entrepreneur”. At the time, the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/28117/chapter-abstract/212268180?redirectedFrom=fulltext">“Tangentopoli”</a> scandal had exposed deeply entrenched corruption among national and regional politicians. </p>
<p>Individual politicians and entire political parties were brought down by the revelations and the old party system was turned on its head, leaving an institutional vacuum. Berlusconi stepped in to fill that vacuum by creating a new political party practically overnight, leveraging his personal entrepreneurial prestige and the communication power of his media empire. </p>
<p>Having crafted a (sometimes precarious) <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402380500310600">alliance</a> with two different partners on the right and far right, Berlusconi was elected prime minister for the first time in 1994. It was the beginning of a lengthy spell in power as head of coalitions and alliances of the right. In the end, he was prime minister three times: from 1994 to 1995, 2001 to 2006 and 2008 to 2011.</p>
<p>Berlusconi was recognised as a charismatic politician and the electoral campaigns that put him in government were inevitably centered on him personally. However, he was less convincing as a statesman. He lacked a long-term vision for Italy both in terms of statecraft and economic development. </p>
<p>In his two decades in power, Italy’s GDP remained in line with the rest of Europe but the country’s competitiveness, measured in terms of export, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/43039816">declined consistently</a>. This was mirrored by a generous rise in public spending – despite the neoliberal leanings of Berlusconi’s governments.</p>
<p>Berlusconi’s politics always came down to personal relationships over institutions. This style as worsened by a persistent conflict of interest between his role as prime minister of the country and de facto monarch of a business empire largely built on commercial TV and advertising. </p>
<p>He acted no differently as a politician than he did in his entrepreneurial life, running his governments with incredible energy but with an extremely low propensity for delegation. </p>
<p>But while Berlusconi was able to slot his eldest sons Marina and Piersilvio into top jobs in his business empire, he hasn’t been able to find an equally charismatic successor for his political project.</p>
<h2>All is forgiven, again and again</h2>
<p>Italians gave the flamboyant Berlusconi a pass for many antics, particularly his sometimes <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64653128">unconventional behaviour</a> in his private life. He probably got more lenience from the public than he deserved, and certainly much more than the judicial system was willing to extend him, as was clear from his <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/15/silvio-berlusconi-community-service-sentence-tax-fraud">conviction</a> for tax fraud. </p>
<p>While he fought off other legal cases over allegations of sex with a minor, others were convicted of <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/11994528/Italian-businessman-and-glamour-model-convicted-of-recruiting-prostitutes-for-Berlusconis-parties.html">recruiting prostitutes for Berlusconi’s parties</a>.</p>
<p>Even now, after his death, it is difficult to land on a definitive view of Berlusconi and his role in Italy’s recent history. His own life story is certainly emblematic of a country endowed with many gifts – a creative place capable of sudden and unexpected revival. </p>
<p>But he could equally be said to represent Italy in a negative way too, unfortunately too often incapable of producing a vision of the future based on anything other than individual egoistic interests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203601/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Colli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Despite his serving three separate terms in office, it’s still difficult to decide on a definitive view of the late Italian prime minister.
Andrea Colli, Full Professor, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/203206
2023-04-20T11:54:33Z
2023-04-20T11:54:33Z
ChatGPT: lessons learned from Italy’s temporary ban of the AI chatbot
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521326/original/file-20230417-1137-ybj40m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5955%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Italian data protection authority used an emergency procedure to impose the temporary ban.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/girl-park-holding-smartphone-chatgpt-artificial-2274805377">Shutterstock / Diego Thomazini</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In March 2023, Italy became the <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/03/31/openais-chatgpt-chatbot-banned-in-italy-by-watchdog-over-privacy-concerns">first western country</a> to block the advanced chatbot known as ChatGPT. </p>
<p>The Italian data protection authority, <a href="https://www.garanteprivacy.it/web/garante-privacy-en">Garante</a>, cited concerns over the <a href="https://www.garanteprivacy.it/web/guest/home/docweb/-/docweb-display/docweb/9870847">protection of personal data</a> when making this decision. It has given <a href="https://openai.com">OpenAI</a>, the California-based company that created <a href="https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt">ChatGPT</a>, until the end of April to comply with its demands.</p>
<p>Garante said ChatGPT collects data in a way that’s incompatible with data protection law. Another reason given was the lack of age verification by the platform, which could expose children to harmful content. As a result, it used an emergency procedure to temporarily suspend the processing of personal data by OpenAI.</p>
<p>News about the temporary ban <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/chatgpt-ban-germany-ai-privacy-b2314487.html">spread across the world</a>, <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/chatgpt-italy-ban-openai-trouble-in-europe-eu-gdpr-data-privacy/">raising concerns</a> about the consequences of decisions like this on the development of new artificial intelligence (AI) applications. </p>
<p>The move also coincided with a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-65110030">call by experts</a> and business people – including OpenAI’s co-founder Elon Musk – to place limits on the development of AI-based applications until the risks could be better assessed. </p>
<p>The temporary ban could offer some important lessons about the proportionality and effectiveness of bans on developing technologies, about coordination between member states at the European level, and how to balance access to services with the need to protect children from accessing harmful content.</p>
<p>The order, issued on March 30, was signed by Pasquale Stanzione, the president of the Italian data protection authority. It followed a notification about a data breach concerning ChatGPT user data that had been reported ten days earlier.</p>
<h2>Data processing</h2>
<p>Garante briefly justified its measures by underlining the lack of information available to users, and data subjects, about the data processed by OpenAI. It also cited the large-scale processing of personal data to train generative systems such as ChatGPT. </p>
<p>OpenAI’s terms state that ChatGPT is provided only to users aged over 13. However, this did not satisfy Italy’s data protection authority, which was concerned about the lack of age verification.</p>
<p>The reaction by OpenAI was, first, to block access to ChatGPT in Italy and, second, to demonstrate its availability to collaborate with Garante on complying with the temporary order. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Representation of data privacy." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521652/original/file-20230418-28-hejoi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In its decision, Garante cited the large-scale processing of personal data to train generative systems such as ChatGPT.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/businessman-use-laptop-interface-padlock-global-791823313">Shutterstock / Laymanzoom</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Compliance would involve OpenAI implementing safeguards including the provision of a privacy policy, offering users the possibility of exercising individual rights over data protection, and providing information about the company’s legal basis for processing personal data. </p>
<p>Garante welcomed these commitments. It suspended the temporary order and requested that OpenAI implement these safeguards <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/chatgpt-italy-lift-ban-garante-privacy-gdpr-openai/">by the end of April 2023</a>.</p>
<h2>Harmonised framework</h2>
<p>However, the case highlights at least three key lessons – namely, the lack of European coordination in regulating this technology, the effectiveness and proportionality of this measure, and the protection of children. </p>
<p>First, more European coordination is needed around the general issue of AI technology. The <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A52021PC0206">EU’s proposed AI Act</a> is only one step towards a harmonised framework for ensuring the development of AI technologies that are aligned with European values. And as Italy’s ban has shown, the EU regulatory model can potentially become fragmented if national authorities go in their own directions.</p>
<p>In particular, the connection between AI and data protection empowers national authorities to react to the development of new AI technology. It also underlines the need for more coordination between European member states on regulation of all kinds. </p>
<h2>Planning, not banning</h2>
<p>Second, the measures adopted by the Italian data protection authority raise questions both about effectiveness and proportionality.</p>
<p>Regarding effectiveness, it’s worth noting that there were reports of a 400% <a href="https://www.techradar.com/news/vpn-downloads-skyrocket-following-italy-chatgpt-ban">surge in VPN downloads</a> in Italy, potentially enabling users to get round the ban, following news of its introduction.</p>
<p>On the question of proportionality, a general ban does not seem to strike a balance between the conflicting constitutional interests at stake. The temporary measure does not mention how it takes into account the protection of other interests, such as the freedom of users to access ChatGPT.</p>
<p>Even though the ban is temporary, the situation might have benefited from the involvement at an earlier stage by other board members of the Italian data protection authority. A preliminary exchange with OpenAI could have avoided a ban altogether. This course of action could have anticipated the implementation of further safeguards to comply with data protection.</p>
<h2>The best ways to protect children</h2>
<p>Finally, the decision raises questions about the best ways to protect children from any harmful content created by these applications. Introducing an age verification system or alerts regarding harmful content could have been topics for discussion, had the parties been engaged in an ongoing dialogue.</p>
<p>This case offers an example of how general bans imposed on new technological applications are usually the result of quick reactions that do not involve a deep assessment of the effectiveness and proportionality of the measure. </p>
<p>Even if one argues that the decision tends towards protecting fundamental rights, primarily in data protection and safeguards for children, it leads to more uncertainty. </p>
<p>A preventative and collaborative approach with OpenAI would have minimised the risk of this service being blocked in Italy. Continued discussion between OpenAI and Italy’s authorities is critical.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203206/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oreste Pollicino acted as an Independent Honest Broker for the drafting of the new European Union code against disinformation online.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Giovanni De Gregorio is PLMJ Chair in Law and Technology at Católica Global School of Law, Universidade Catolica Portuguesa, Lisbon.</span></em></p>
The blocking of ChatGPT in Italy raises some important questions, including how to balance access to services with the need to protect children
Oreste Pollicino, Professor of Constitutional Law, Bocconi University
Giovanni De Gregorio, PLMJ chair in law and technology at Católica Global School of Law and Católica Lisbon School of Law and academic fellow, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/203081
2023-04-19T13:53:16Z
2023-04-19T13:53:16Z
Brexit didn’t trigger the mass exodus from the EU that was once feared – but nor did it leave Europeans wanting more from their union
<p>The British vote to <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/brexit-9976">leave the European Union</a> in 2016 sent a shockwave across the European continent. With a large member state turning its back on the union, it seemed eminently possible that others could follow.</p>
<p>But when the UK was plunged into economic and political turmoil by its decision, however, it seemed that Brexit had set an unappealing precedent. European leaders had feared a potential surge in eurosceptic movements in their own countries but that did not fully materialise.</p>
<p>Now the EU appears to be enjoying a longer-term Brexit dividend. The decade before the Brexit vote had been characterised by political paralysis. Member states appeared divided on how to manage the fallout from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/eurozone-crisis-11464">eurozone crisis</a> and the rapid influx of refugees from Syria as well as other migrants <a href="https://eprints.ncl.ac.uk/file_store/production/259391/E172202B-79CA-4DAE-B644-677A106601CA.pdf">in 2015</a>. This led to a slump in public support for the EU.</p>
<p>While the benefits of EU membership are difficult to quantify or observe for ordinary citizens, the UK’s departure provided clear benchmark for public opinion in the remaining 27 member states about the costs and benefits of leaving.</p>
<p>I examined whether people’s opinions about the EU changed via two waves of <a href="https://eupinions.eu/de/data">eupinions surveys</a> conducted by my colleagues and I together with the Germany-based think-tank the Bertelsmann Foundation. The data I rely on here is from April 2016 (just before the Brexit vote) and August 2016 (just after). Respondents were asked if they would vote to remain in or leave the EU if a referendum were held today.</p>
<p><strong>Support for remaining in the EU April and August 2016</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A chart showing that Brexit generally induced higher support for remaining in the EU in Europe in the period immediately following the referendum." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519044/original/file-20230403-28-777o7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519044/original/file-20230403-28-777o7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519044/original/file-20230403-28-777o7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519044/original/file-20230403-28-777o7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519044/original/file-20230403-28-777o7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519044/original/file-20230403-28-777o7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519044/original/file-20230403-28-777o7x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Change in support for remaining in the EU before and after Brexit, with % wanting to remain in EU shown at different time points.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Overall, support for remaining in the EU was slightly higher in August 2016 than it had been in April, prior to the Brexit vote. The biggest jump in support for remaining in the EU was recorded in Germany.</p>
<p>Support for remaining in the EU was overall quite high, anyway, at an average of about 70% across EU member states. But looking at individual member states, differences become more evident. In Germany, Poland and Spain, support rested at or topped 70% before the Brexit vote and climbed even higher in the months that followed it – in Poland and Spain to higher than 80%. While France and Italy also saw a rise after the vote, any change happened at a much lower baseline. In fact, in Italy support for remaining inside the EU hovered between the 50 and 55% mark. </p>
<h2>The years after the referendum</h2>
<p>Of course, many things have happened in the years since the 2016 referendum – from the COVID pandemic to the <a href="https://eu-solidarity-ukraine.ec.europa.eu/eu-ukraine-standing-together_en">war in Ukraine</a>. But generally these events, like Brexit, are associated with increased <a href="https://eupinions.eu/de/trends">positivity towards remaining within the EU</a>.</p>
<p>The years following Brexit were characterised by a desire to work together. The various crises had the potential to remind the public in the remaining 27 member states of the raison d’être of the EU and boost support for European project as a result. </p>
<p>And indeed we’ve seen support for remaining the EU solidifying over this period – even after the initial referendum bump. In Spain support for staying in the EU has increased by 7 percentage points and even in Italy it is up by 12 percentage points.</p>
<p><strong>Attitudes towards the EU in August 2016 and December 2022</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519046/original/file-20230403-14-l90nqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A table showing that support for staying in the EU held largely steady in key European nations between 2016 and 2022 but that support for further integration stagnated or declined." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519046/original/file-20230403-14-l90nqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519046/original/file-20230403-14-l90nqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519046/original/file-20230403-14-l90nqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519046/original/file-20230403-14-l90nqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519046/original/file-20230403-14-l90nqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519046/original/file-20230403-14-l90nqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/519046/original/file-20230403-14-l90nqa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">No less, no more.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, while support for remaining in the EU is healthy, that does not mean people are looking for deeper political and economic integration in Europe. One does not necessarily translate into the other. While around 53% of Europeans wish to see more integration, there is significant variation across countries – which is very important for a project that is meant to work well for all its member states. </p>
<p>Support for more political and economic integration is high in Italy and Spain (68%) but low in the Netherlands (37%) and France (38%). In some countries, including Poland, support for more integration went up post-Brexit vote but in others, such as Germany, France and Italy, it went down. </p>
<p>So while Brexit did not trigger further departures from the EU or even a strong movement in that direction in terms of public opinion, it also hasn’t delivered increased enthusiasm for “more” Europe. That suggests the exit risk is not over, particularly if the UK proves able to mitigate the economic and political fallout of Brexit in the longer term – or if the EU 27 seems to be worse off politically and economically in the same timeframe. So far, Brexit is seen by much of the European public as a mistake – but how long will that last if the tide turns for the UK?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203081/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine de Vries receives funding from a European Research Council Consolidator Grant (GA No. 864687). </span></em></p>
Opnion polls taken before and after the 2016 referendum suggest a Brexit dividend but that could change if the UK makes more of a success of its departure.
Catherine de Vries, Professor of Political Science, Bocconi University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.