tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/bushfire-and-natural-hazards-crc-1048/articlesBushfire and Natural Hazards CRC2019-09-01T19:48:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1227112019-09-01T19:48:32Z2019-09-01T19:48:32ZGrim fire season looms but many Australians remain unprepared<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290256/original/file-20190830-115372-fs4uho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Burnt out cars in Tingha, New South Wales, in February 2019.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bushfires are predicted to be worse than normal across much of Australia this summer but research shows many people, especially those in high-risk areas, remain unprepared.</p>
<p>The latest <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/hazardnotes/63">Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook</a> shows the 2019-20 fire season has the potential to be an active season across the country, following a very warm and dry start to the year. </p>
<p>The east coast of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, as well as parts of southern Western Australia and South Australia, face above-normal fire potential. It means communities in those areas, and across Australia, should start planning their emergency fire response.</p>
<h2>The ingredients for a bad fire season</h2>
<p>Above-normal bushfire potential refers to the ability of a large fire to take hold. It takes into account recent and predicted weather for a particular area, the dryness of the land and forests, and recent fire history.</p>
<p>The year to date has been unusually warm and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/">dry for large parts of Australia</a>. In fact it has been the fifth-driest start to the year on record, and the driest since 1970. Some areas, such as New South Wales into southeastern Queensland, are into their third year of dry conditions.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290259/original/file-20190830-165972-1h8t057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290259/original/file-20190830-165972-1h8t057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290259/original/file-20190830-165972-1h8t057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290259/original/file-20190830-165972-1h8t057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290259/original/file-20190830-165972-1h8t057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=631&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290259/original/file-20190830-165972-1h8t057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=631&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290259/original/file-20190830-165972-1h8t057.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=631&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Vast areas of Australia, particularly the east coast, have an above-normal fire potential this season.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BNHCRC</span></span>
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<p>The warming trend means that above average temperatures now tend to occur in most years, and <a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/releases/699/outlook-shows-warm-and-dry-spring-likely-for-most-of-australia/">2019 has followed this pattern</a>. These high temperatures further dry the landscape and vegetation.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-summer-bushfires-you-didnt-hear-about-and-the-invasive-species-fuelling-them-112619">The summer bushfires you didn't hear about, and the invasive species fuelling them</a>
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<p>An early start to the fire season has been declared in many areas across eastern Australia. The dry landscape means that any warm and windy conditions are likely to see elevated fire risk. However in some drought-affected areas, poor growth of grass and annual plants means that vegetation loads are reduced, which may lower the fire risk.</p>
<p>The climate outlook for the next few months is also a crucial factor. Of particular interest are the future tendencies of Pacific sea surface temperature associated with the <a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/releases/683/chance-of-el-nino-lowers-but-positive-indian-ocean-dipole-remains-likely/">El Niño-Southern Oscillation, as well as the Indian Ocean Dipole,</a> major climate drivers over Australia.</p>
<h2>Climate change doesn’t create bushfires, but can make them worse</h2>
<p>Heat, drought, flood and fire are not new phenomena for Australia. What is different now is that there is an underlying 1°C increase in average temperatures since industrial times began - the result of climate change - which means that the variability of normal events sits on top of that. So climate change alone doesn’t create a bad fire season, but can make the weather conditions conducive to very large and destructive fires.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290260/original/file-20190830-165997-ygif4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290260/original/file-20190830-165997-ygif4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290260/original/file-20190830-165997-ygif4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290260/original/file-20190830-165997-ygif4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290260/original/file-20190830-165997-ygif4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290260/original/file-20190830-165997-ygif4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290260/original/file-20190830-165997-ygif4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A bushfire threatened homes near Lake Macquarie in August this year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Darren Pateman</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Weather records are routinely being broken and all indications are that temperatures will continue to increase.</p>
<p>We cannot be sure what this means for extreme hazards like bushfire. This is an area in critical need of further research into weather prediction, land planning, infrastructure development, population trends and community awareness.</p>
<h2>Firefighting resources are finite</h2>
<p>The distribution and readiness of firefighting resources are also considered when calculating fire potential.</p>
<p>In Victoria’s East Gippsland, for example, forests have been extremely dry for many years. If a fire were to start under bad conditions, there is a high likelihood it would grow too large for local resources, and they would need to call for extra support from elsewhere.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-how-do-bushfires-start-116664">Curious Kids: how do bushfires start?</a>
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</em>
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<p>Fire seasons are lengthening and overlapping across states, and indeed across the globe. So we need to think of new ways of dealing with bushfires, floods, cyclones, and heatwaves. The old ways of sharing resources such as aerial firefighting equipment, and fire fighters between Australian states and other countries, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-our-own-elvis-former-fire-chiefs-warn-australia-is-unprepared-for-bushfire-peril-20190311-p5139j.html">may not always be possible</a>. So we need to discover better ways to manage all our resources. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290261/original/file-20190830-165977-1xux7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290261/original/file-20190830-165977-1xux7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290261/original/file-20190830-165977-1xux7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290261/original/file-20190830-165977-1xux7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290261/original/file-20190830-165977-1xux7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290261/original/file-20190830-165977-1xux7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290261/original/file-20190830-165977-1xux7h8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Overlapping fire seasons means the sharing of fire crews and equipment between states may not always be possible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Be prepared, and get your kids involved</h2>
<p>Research has identified significant trends of vulnerability linked to demographic changes, such as a growing and ageing population. For example, the population of those aged over 85 is <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbytitle/58FF5A2527DDD70ECA2568A90013634F">predicted</a> to double in the next 25 years. The general population is also increasingly shifting into traditionally hazard-prone areas such as forested or coastal rural areas. </p>
<p>Our <a href="http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/publications/biblio/bnh-4780">research</a> is consistently showing that many Australians, especially those in high risk areas, are not sufficiently ready for fire and have not established fire plans well ahead of time. For example, people may underestimate the risks to life and property if the fire danger is not rated as “catastrophic”. The research showed many properties were under-insured and some people overestimated the response capacity of fire services. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290262/original/file-20190830-165993-qxlxgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290262/original/file-20190830-165993-qxlxgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290262/original/file-20190830-165993-qxlxgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290262/original/file-20190830-165993-qxlxgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290262/original/file-20190830-165993-qxlxgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290262/original/file-20190830-165993-qxlxgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290262/original/file-20190830-165993-qxlxgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Experts say all Australians, not just those in high-risk areas, should prepare for the bushfire season.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
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<p>So, make sure you’ve got a plan, talk about it with your family and ensure you have back up plans B, C and D. Include your children in planning to help them prepare, and don’t forgot about your pets and animals too.</p>
<p>Backed by the research, emergency warnings to people under the threat of a fire have been transformed in recent years. But do not wait for a warning, as it might be too late. Everyone should be aware of their surroundings. </p>
<p>The latest outlook report is the work of the Bureau of Meteorology and fire and land management agencies around the country, brought together by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.</p>
<p>For more information on how to prepare and be ready for the fire season, consult your local fire service website.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122711/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Thornton receives funding from the Commonwealth Government from the CRC Program, and from all fire, Land management and state emergency service agencies as part the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. Full membership can be found on the CRC website <a href="http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/about/organisations-partners">http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/about/organisations-partners</a> </span></em></p>Many Australians are unprepared for the worse-than-average bushfire season ahead - even those in high-risk areas.Richard Thornton, Chief Executive Officer, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRCLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/372232015-02-06T04:15:06Z2015-02-06T04:15:06ZIt may feel like a quiet disaster season, but don’t get complacent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71186/original/image-20150205-28615-1g6fkxw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kinglake Road after Black Saturday Fires</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This summer has seen a predictable share of fires in Victoria, <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-kill-but-knowing-exactly-how-might-make-them-less-deadly-35918">South Australia</a>, New South Wales and Western Australia, flooding in Queensland, and several <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-faces-a-stormier-future-thanks-to-climate-change-35327">severe thunderstorms</a>. However, there are already rumblings about the Severe Summer That Wasn’t, with a <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/victoria/victorian-firefighters-prepare-for-extreme-fire-danger-20150204-135yxh.html">generally cool and wet January</a> in the southeast.</p>
<p>These are dangerous times – these are exactly the perfect conditions that breed complacency to natural disasters in Australia. </p>
<p>We don’t know when the next major natural disaster will strike, but we do know that the latest <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">State of the Climate</a> released last year by the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO shows Australia is steadily warming, raising the potential for more fires, floods, and heatwaves. </p>
<p>And we also know that some of the nation’s biggest and most lethal natural disasters have happened in February and March – <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/black-saturday">Black Saturday</a>, Ash Wednesday, cyclones Larry and Yasi.</p>
<p>Decades of good research has provided us with much knowledge about extreme weather, fire behaviour, flood mitigation, building in high-wind or earthquake zones, and more. What’s left are the difficult problems, and mainly are about us – people issues – and how we live with the threat of natural hazards. </p>
<h2>Memory lapse</h2>
<p>Our <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/bushfire_crc_nswrfs_final_nov13_0.pdf">post-disaster research</a> indicates that many people design and build their rural properties based on what they think is most likely to happen should they be impacted by a natural hazard, based on what they remember happened last time and what neighbours and friends can recall.</p>
<p>Memory is important but it will never give us the full picture of how to manage an unexperienced natural hazard.</p>
<p>If we want to make our communities safer, Australians need to tackle the problems in more innovative ways. Somewhere at some time every year, a town will be flooded, someone will lose their house in a bushfire, a cyclone will pound a coastal community, an earthquake will rattle some buildings, and a tsunami may even threaten our coastline. </p>
<p>For much of our population there is a fundamental disconnect between accepting a risk as a group (that is, as a whole country) and as an individual. This is because statistically there is a low risk of these events happening to you as an individual in any particular year. Most Australians get through the year, even many years, without personally feeling the impact of a natural disaster.</p>
<p>This low risk/high consequence scenario is the trickiest of all situations for governments and emergency service agencies to manage. <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/bushfire_crc_nswrfs_final_nov13_0.pdf">Our post-disaster research</a> has shown that residents in hazard-prone areas, perhaps not surprisingly, rely heavily on their own experiences of past hazards to inform their current risk situation. </p>
<p>And what could their memory tell them? That they have been in this house for 25 years and never seen a bushfire. That the last cyclone wasn’t all that bad. That the fire brigade arrived so quickly they didn’t really have to do anything. That there was plenty of time to pack the car and depart in an orderly procession into town. That the last bushfire was so big and fast moving that the only effective future plan is to flee as soon as it gets close. That the last earthquake rattled the cupboards but left no damage. That the last emergency warning fizzled out to nothing?</p>
<p>These experiences shape today’s decision on how to prepare for a hazards and how to react to an emerging threat.</p>
<h2>Shifting responsibility</h2>
<p>As I <a href="http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/natural-hazards-a-wicked-problem/">argued</a> on a recent blog, there has been a <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com/projects/1-3/sharing-responsibility-component-mainstreaming-fire-and-emergency-management-across-pol">long historical transfer</a> of responsibility for the protection against such hazards to the government and its agencies on the belief that it’s better to have properly trained and resourced organisations to respond and protect us. </p>
<p>However, as pointed out by the <a href="http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report/Volume-2.html">Victorian 2009 Bushfires Royal Commission</a>, that transfer of responsibility has probably gone too far. Individuals are no longer taking sufficient responsibility for their own risk management.</p>
<p>Governments over many years have allowed this risk transfer to continue through perverse incentives that favour people not taking responsibility. For example, compensation schemes for lost assets rather than subsidies for the reduction of risk. </p>
<p>One of the main reasons why these “disaster risk reduction” savings are not always enacted is because there’s little to gain, politically, from cost-effective mitigation. In fact, American experts <a href="http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=6101720&fileId=S0003055409990104">Andrew Healy and Neil Malhotra assert</a> that voters reward politicians for delivering disaster relief funding — but not for investing in disaster preparedness. </p>
<p>That presents a fundamental challenge to the implementation of the recent <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/disaster-funding">Productivity Commission’s inquiry</a> into disaster funding arrangements, which in its <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-emergency-funding-is-another-disaster-waiting-to-happen-35896">draft report</a> advocated a substantial shift of focus from funding relief and recovery to funding mitigation.</p>
<p>As a population that is learning to deal with natural hazards, our well-informed science and tried and true policies and practises are balanced by dodgy recollections and distorted perceptions of risk. The solution to this problem is not immediately clear. </p>
<h2>What you can do</h2>
<p>Television and radio advertising for fire and storm season preparations, drawing from road safety advertisements, increasingly focus on the individual in the moment of decision under the threat of a hazard.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pbSWJFPfjdo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">It’s your responsibility to have a proper plan, prepared in advance.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Do you have a written and rehearsed plan? Our <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com/projects/7-1/decision-making-under-stress-understanding-community-members-survival-related-decision-">research</a> shows, most people don’t. </p>
<p>Even among the people who do, many of their plans are vague on detail and don’t allow for worst-case scenarios (roads blocked, debilitating injuries, loss of power and water, escaped and panicked pets). </p>
<p>And most people gravely underestimate the mental stress of being in the middle of a natural hazard. Do you really want to be in your house when the fire or cyclone hits? What – exactly – is your trigger to leave, and where – exactly – will you go? This is crucial not only for residents in the hazard zone, but also for travellers. </p>
<p>The state fire and emergency service agencies have many good resources on what it means to be prepared and not complacent. See here for <a href="http://emergency.vic.gov.au/map#prepare-fire">Victoria</a>, <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare">New South Wales</a>, <a href="http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/prepare_for_bushfire.jsp">South Australia</a>, <a href="http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au/">Queensland</a>, <a href="http://www.dfes.wa.gov.au/safetyinformation/Pages/default.aspx">Western Australia</a>, <a href="http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=colbushfirePrepareActSurvive">Tasmania</a>, the <a href="http://esa.act.gov.au/">Australian Capital Territory</a> and the <a href="http://www.pfes.nt.gov.au/">Northern Territory</a>.</p>
<p>The knowledge exists; the challenge is to encourage more people to take their personal responsibilities more seriously.</p>
<p>Place yourself in this situation - what would you do?</p>
<p><em>These impressions draw upon a body of post-incident studies conducted by the Bushfire CRC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC since 2009. All the reports are on <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com">www.bushfirecrc.com</a> or <a href="http://www.bnhcrc.com.au">www.bnhcrc.com.au</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37223/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre receives funding from the Commonwealth Government through the CRC Program and also receives funding form all state and territory governments, not-for-profit organisations and research organisations. For more details please see <a href="http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/about/organisations-partners">http://www.bnhcrc.com.au/about/organisations-partners</a> for a full list of partners.
Richard Thornton is a Board Member of the International Association of Wildland Fire.</span></em></p>This summer has seen a predictable share of fires in Victoria, South Australia, New South Wales and Western Australia, flooding in Queensland, and several severe thunderstorms. However, there are already…Richard Thornton, Chief Executive Officer, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRCLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/181152013-09-11T20:47:00Z2013-09-11T20:47:00ZBushfires can occur year round: we have to be prepared<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31174/original/r8td4nt9-1378882225.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We can't wait until summer to be ready for fires and other natural hazards.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dean Lewins</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Yesterday’s fires in Sydney’s western outskirts are a timely warning for all Australian communities. Being prepared for a bushfire is not just a summer job – communities in bushfire prone areas, and in the ever-expanding urban/rural interface surrounding our cities and major towns, need to be prepared 12 months of the year. </p>
<p>When the conditions are right, hot and windy days, with dry vegetation, fires will occur. They are a fact of life in the environment we live in. We all must be vigilant about our local conditions.</p>
<h2>An earlier fire season?</h2>
<p>While summer is usually the time associated with the highest bushfire risk in the southern states across Australia, bushfire seasons are starting earlier and lasting longer.</p>
<p>With these longer fire seasons, fire agencies need to continually refine the education and warning messages for communities in fire prone areas. Much of the new research into bushfires is now about how best to keep communities educated and informed about these changing and evolving circumstances.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31175/original/gpp7j97y-1378882280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31175/original/gpp7j97y-1378882280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31175/original/gpp7j97y-1378882280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31175/original/gpp7j97y-1378882280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31175/original/gpp7j97y-1378882280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31175/original/gpp7j97y-1378882280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31175/original/gpp7j97y-1378882280.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Seasonal outlooks help Australia plan for fire season.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dean Lewins</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Part of this is the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre seasonal bushfire outlooks. Every year since 2006, before the northern and southern Australian fire seasons, the Bushfire CRC has brought together fire managers from all states and territories with Bureau of Meteorology scientists to produce seasonal bushfire outlooks for the relevant fire season. The seasonal outlooks are a useful insight for fire and land management agencies about the expected fire season, so they can plan accordingly.</p>
<h2>What’s the outlook?</h2>
<p>Broadly, there are two fire seasons in Australia – northern and southern fire seasons. Across <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worst-fire-season-ever-until-next-year-3452">northern Australia</a>, the fire season coincides with the northern dry season during winter. In southern Australia, the fire season begins later in the year, in the lead up to, and including, summer. Depending on the location and conditions experienced, southern Australia’s fire season can run through to March or April.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31172/original/mcmkzy6w-1378881876.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31172/original/mcmkzy6w-1378881876.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31172/original/mcmkzy6w-1378881876.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31172/original/mcmkzy6w-1378881876.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31172/original/mcmkzy6w-1378881876.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31172/original/mcmkzy6w-1378881876.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31172/original/mcmkzy6w-1378881876.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31172/original/mcmkzy6w-1378881876.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=624&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bushfire CRC seasonal bushfire outlook.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bushfire CRC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Last week the Bushfire CRC released the <a href="http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/fire_note_116_-_southern_australian_seasonal_bushfire_outlook_2013-14.pdf">Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook</a> for this fire season. You can see from the map above that large areas of southern Australia, especially along the east and west coasts extending inland, face above normal fire potential for this fire season. </p>
<p>This above normal forecast is due to abundant grass growth across inland Australia, as a result of above average rainfall between May and July 2013. Grass fuels grow quickly, and this short burst of above average rainfall across inland Australia, coupled with above average temperatures across the country since January 2013, has been enough for the above normal bushfire potential to be declared.</p>
<p>In forested areas, a combination of factors, such as Australia’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/hot-summer-yes-the-hottest-12505">hottest summer on record</a> and above average temperatures over winter, has seen the bush begin to dry out.</p>
<h2>How can we be prepared?</h2>
<p>We know that bushfires will happen in Australia every year. But we also know from research on recent large fires that many people living in high risk bushfire areas are still under-prepared and ill-informed on the dangers and the preparations needed.</p>
<p>Changes to bushfire policies in the last decade have seen increased emphasis on early warning, focus on protection of human life over fighting the fires, the need for shared responsibility between official agencies and the community for bushfire safety, and the use of personal bushfire survival planning and protection areas around the home.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31176/original/krz3ts9p-1378882283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31176/original/krz3ts9p-1378882283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31176/original/krz3ts9p-1378882283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31176/original/krz3ts9p-1378882283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31176/original/krz3ts9p-1378882283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31176/original/krz3ts9p-1378882283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/31176/original/krz3ts9p-1378882283.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This week’s bushfires in NSW have taught us we don’t know everything about being prepared.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Dean Lewins</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This change in the way that bushfires, and indeed other hazards, are managed has been strengthened by the extensive and concerted research efforts. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/fighting-and-dying-blokes-and-bushfire-in-australia-11552">psychological motivations</a> and other reasons behind an individual’s decision to act or not to act in advance of a fire, sometimes despite their best intentions, is better understood by fire agencies applying the research.</p>
<p>The scope of work such this, so important in helping agencies communicate fire preparedness, has now been extended to include other natural hazards in Australia through the newly formed Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. There are many common areas between fire and other hazards. For example, with fire and flood, community issues are comparable, response issues and incident management are similar and recovery issues have many common threads.</p>
<p>The bushfires on Sydney’s urban/rural fringe yesterday, before the official, declared fire season in New South Wales, are another demonstration that we do not know everything about being prepared for emergencies. We need to urgently find new and better ways to help people understand what it means to live with threat of bushfire, flood, cyclone and other natural hazards, year round.</p>
<p>We need to ensure <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-talk-about-disaster-recovery-11850">lessons are learnt</a> from each event, and that policies and practices are changed, based on sound, scientific research, to safeguard the community. There is still a lot more to do.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/18115/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Both the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and the Bushfire CRC receive funding though the federal government’s CRC program and state and territory fire, land management and emergency service agencies.</span></em></p>Yesterday’s fires in Sydney’s western outskirts are a timely warning for all Australian communities. Being prepared for a bushfire is not just a summer job – communities in bushfire prone areas, and in…Richard Thornton, Chief Executive Officer, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRCLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.