tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/clark-university-2129/articlesClark University2023-11-24T02:00:05Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2182582023-11-24T02:00:05Z2023-11-24T02:00:05ZSentimen miring CEO raksasa migas memimpin COP 28 dapat mengabaikan agenda iklimnya untuk negara berkembang<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560684/original/file-20231012-21-7d5266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, CEO perusahaan minyak negara Uni Emirat Arab, akan memimpin konferensi iklim PBB COP28.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sultan-al-jaber-chief-executive-of-the-uaes-abu-dhabi-news-photo/1529645349">Francois Walschaerts/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pada Desember 2023, delegasi dari seluruh negara akan bertemu di Uni Emirat Arab (UEA) untuk <a href="https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetailsIII.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-%207&bab=27&Temp=mtdsg3&dentang=_en">Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi Iklim Global</a> ke-28 atau COP 28.</p>
<p>Perundingan ini penting agar dunia bisa mencapai kesepakatan untuk menghindari perubahan iklim yang berbahaya. Sayangnya, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06%20-15/pembicaraan-iklim-sebelum-polisi28-mengangkat-kekhawatiran-akibat-yang-lemah">kepercayaan global terhadap COP28 berada di tingkat yang rendah</a>. Salah satunya disebabkan oleh pimpinan tertingginya.</p>
<p>UEA memicu kontroversi pada Januari 2023 saat mengumumkan bahwa Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, CEO Perusahaan Minyak Nasional Abu Dhabi (ADNOC) – akan menjadi presiden COP 28. Jabatan ini membuat Jaber memiliki kekuasaan besar atas agenda-agenda rapat.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/us-eu-lawmakers-want-al-jaber-out-as-cop28-president?leadSource=uverify%20wall">Amerika Serikat (AS) dan politikus Eropa</a> sempat menuntut pengunduran diri al-Jaber. Mantan Wakil Presiden AS Al Gore <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/65423811-7c7e-4ae5-876d-ffbed29cefcf">sampai menuding</a> bahwa kepentingan bahan bakar fosil telah “merasuki proses di Perserikatan Bangsa Bangsa hingga tingkat yang meresahkan, bahkan menempatkan CEO salah satu perusahaan minyak terbesar di dunia sebagai presiden COP 28.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="John Kerry, dalam setelan bisnis barat, menyentuh lengan Al Jaber saat mereka berbicara. Al Jaber mengenakan pakaian tradisional Timur Tengah. Kedua pria itu memiliki tinggi badan yang hampir sama. " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Utusan Presiden AS untuk Iklim John Kerry berbicara dengan.
Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber selama Forum Energi Global Dewan Atlantik di Abu Dhabi pada 14 Januari 2023. Kerry mendukung al-Jaber terpilih menjadi Presiden COP28.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/united-arab-emirates-minister-of-state-and-ceo-of-the-abu-news-photo/1246218348?adppopup=true">Karim Sahib/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Menurut saya, kekhawatiran mengenai peran industri bahan bakar fosil menghambat kebijakan pro-iklim adalah hal yang wajar. Terdapat <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.809">banyak bukti</a> bahwa perusahaan bahan bakar fosil terbesar mengetahui produk mereka akan menyebabkan perubahan iklim sejak beberapa dekade silam. Mereka lantas sengaja berupaya untuk menyangkal ilmu pengetahuan iklim dan menentang kebijakan iklim.</p>
<p>Kendati demikian, saya meyakini seruan untuk <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2023/09/30/boycott-cop28-holding-a-climate-conference-in-dubai-is%20-absurd-and-dangerous_6142129_23.html">memboikot COP28</a> dan memblok pilihan suatu kawasan untuk memimpin justru merusak kredibilitas negosiasi PBB dan mengabaikan potensi agenda dalam COP 28.</p>
<p>Saya pernah menjadi penasihat <a href="https://www.unep.org/">Program Lingkungan PBB (UNEP) </a> dan <a href="https://www.clarku.edu/faculty/profiles/ibrahim-ozdemir/">akademisi bidang etika lingkungan</a>. Kekhawatiran terhadap masalah ini mendorong saya untuk bekerja sama dengan enam rekan dari negara-negara belahan dunia Selatan untuk melakukan <a href="https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org/sites/default/files/pdf-actualites/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">analisis komparatif terperinci</a> tentang tujuan dan perilaku lima presidensi COP belakangan.</p>
<p>Kami terkejut saat menemukan bahwa agenda kebijakan yang dipromosikan oleh kepresidenan COP 28 UEA akan bermanfaat besar untuk mempercepat transisi dari bahan bakar fosil. Kami juga menemukan bahwa banyak kritik terhadap kepresidenan UEA tidak berdasar.</p>
<h2>Bagaimana al-Jaber dipilih</h2>
<p>Pertama, penting bagi kita untuk memahami bagaimana proses pemilihan presiden COP.</p>
<p>Pemilihan tuan rumah COP berlangsung dengan <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/the-big-picture/what-are-united-nations-climate-change%20-konferensi/bagaimana-polisi-diorganisir-pertanyaan-dan-jawaban#Negara-tuan%20rumah-dan-presidensi">proses PBB</a> yang bergilir secara demokratis <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/the-big-picture/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences/how-cops-are-organized-questions-and-answers#Host-country-and-presidency">di antara enam regional</a>. </p>
<p>Negara-negara di setiap regional berkonsultasi mengenai siapa yang akan mewakili kawasan mereka. Setelah disepakati, perwakilan mereka mengusulkan nama, yang kemudian dinilai dan diselesaikan oleh Sekretariat Konvensi Kerangka Kerja PBB mengenai Perubahan Iklim (UNFCCC).</p>
<p>Untuk COP 28, kawasan Asia-Pasifik yang terdiri dari beragam negara berkembang, memilih UEA dan al-Jaber.</p>
<h2>Kekhawatiran energi di negara-negara Selatan</h2>
<p>Bagi beberapa negara di kawasan Selatan, tuntutan penghapusan bahan bakar fosil tidak hanya tampak menakutkan, tapi juga <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/%20dikurasi/en/312441468197382126/pdf/104866-v1-REVISI-PUBLIC-Laporan-Utama.pdf">mengancam pembangunan ekonomi</a> mereka. Tuntutan ini diserukan banyak kelompok aktivis dan negara-negara peserta COP 28.</p>
<p>Dari puluhan negara penghasil minyak dunia, sekitar <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/just-transition-developing-countries-shift-oil-gas">separuhnya merupakan negara berkembang berpendapatan menengah</a> dengan perekonomian yang sangat rentan terhadap fluktuasi harga minyak dan gas. Studi menunjukkan bahwa penghentian penggunaan bahan bakar fosil secara cepat dan tidak dipersiapkan dapat menyebabkan kerugian investasi infrastruktur senilai <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0182-1">triliunan dolar AS</a> di negara-negara penghasil minyak.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Namun, pada saat yang sama, banyak negara di Dunia Selatan menghadapi <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">dampak perubahan iklim yang tidak proporsional dengan produksi emisi gas rumah kaca mereka.</a> Dampaknya bermacam-macam, mulai dari peristiwa cuaca ekstrem hingga kenaikan permukaan air laut yang dapat <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/amid-rising-seas-island-nations-push-for-legal-protection">mengancam keberadaan</a> masyarakat mereka.</p>
<p>Al-Jaber menyebut penghentian penggunaan bahan bakar fosil secara bertahap <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/13/phase-down-of-fossil-fuel-inevitable-and%20-essential-says-cop28-president">“tidak bisa dihindari” dan “penting”</a>. Namun, dia mengatakan sistem energi dan negara-negara Selatan <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/%2010/world-not-ready-to-switch-off-fossil-fuels-uae-says">belum siap untuk penghentiannya secara cepat</a>–setidaknya hingga kontribusi energi terbarukan meningkat. </p>
<p>COP 28, karena itu, harus <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2496902-uaes-aljaber-says-cop-28-must-focus-on-adaptation">berfokus pada adaptasi</a>. Pandangan tersebut, meskipun didukung oleh beberapa negara di Dunia Selatan, telah menuai kritik tajam.</p>
<h2>Al-Jaber, Masdar, dan ADNOC</h2>
<p>Beberapa orang menggambarkan kepemimpinan Al-Jaber dalam COP 28 sebagai <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/middleeast/cop-28-dubai-greenwashing-%20Climate/index.html">upaya UEA untuk melakukan “<em>greenwash</em>”</a> atas rencana ekspansi minyak dan gas ADNOC, salah satu perusahaan minyak terbesar di dunia.</p>
<p>Meskipun saya bersimpati dengan kekhawatiran ini, saya dan rekan-rekan saya menganggapnya terlalu sederhana. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-%20saving-the-planet-cop28">Al-Jaber</a> menghabiskan sebagian besar karirnya di sektor energi terbarukan. Pada 2006, ia <a href="https://masdar.ae/en/About-Us/Management/History-and-Legacy">mendirikan dan menjalankan</a> perusahaan energi terbarukan pelat merah UEA, Masdar. Di sana, dia mengembangkan Masdar sehingga menjadi <a href="https://www.energyglobal.com/wind/07062023/uae-and-egypt-advance-development-of-africas-biggest-wind-farm/">operator energi terbarukan terbesar di Afrika</a>.</p>
<p>Al-Jaber baru ditunjuk sebagai CEO ADNOC pada 2016, dalam rangka peluncuran resmi <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12457">“strategi pascaminyak nasional”</a> UEA. Tahun sebelumnya, Putra Mahkota Mohammed bin Zayed menyampaikan pidato di pertemuan puncak pemerintah UEA. <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/abu-dhabi-s-journey-towards-celebrating-the-last-barrel%20-of-oil-gathers-pace-1.737529">Dia menyatakan</a> bahwa UEA akan merayakan “barel minyak terakhir” pada pertengahan abad ini.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Tiga pria berdiri dan berbicara." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber bertemu dengan pejabat di beberapa negara berkembang, termasuk Menteri Lingkungan Hidup, Hutan dan Perubahan Iklim India, Bhupender Yadav (kanan).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bhupender-yadav-indias-minister-for-environment-forest-and-news-photo/1559090143">R.Satish Babu/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>ADNOC banyak dikritik karena berencana menginvestasikan US$150 miliar (Rp2.315 triliun) untuk perluasan kapasitas minyak dan gasnya pada dekade ini. Saya mafhum dengan keprihatinan ini. Untuk tetap berada dalam batas pemanasan global 1,5°C (berdasarkan Perjanjian Paris) dunia mungkin perlu <a href="https://climatechangenews.com/2023/09/27/new%20-iea-net-zero-report-leaves-big-polluters-less-room-to-hide/">menghentikan investasi bahan bakar fosil baru</a>, seperti yang didesak oleh Badan Energi Internasional. Dunia juga perlu <a href="https://doi.%20org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6228">menonaktifkan sekitar 40%</a> dari cadangan bahan bakar fosil yang sudah dikembangkan.</p>
<p>Namun, saat membahas presidensi COP28, saya juga meyakini ambisi ADNOC harus dilihat dalam konteks global. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/12/us-behind-more-than-a-third-of-global-oil-and-gas-expansion-plans-report-finds">Rencana ekspansi bahan bakar fosil dari AS, Kanada, Rusia, Iran, Cina, dan Brasil jauh lebih besar</a> dibandingkan UEA. Sebagian besar pembiayaan bahan bakar fosil di seluruh dunia juga berasal dari <a href="https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/2023.04.13_Report_Banking-On-Climate-Chaos-%202023.pdf">bank-bank di AS, Kanada, dan Jepang</a>. Sejak 2015, bank-bank Eropa telah <a href="https://reclaimfinance.org/site/en/2023/04/13/european-banks-are-among-the-biggest-drivers-%20ekspansi%20bahan%20bakar%20fosil/">menggelontorkan dana jumbo sebesar $1,3 triliun (Rp20,06 ribu triliun) untuk bahan bakar fosil</a>, termasuk $130 miliar (Rp2.006 triliun) pada 2022 saja.</p>
<h2>Agenda COP28</h2>
<p>Penilaian kami menemukan bahwa, kepemimpinan UEA telah melampaui kepresidenan COP-COP sebelumnya.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org/sites/default/files/pdf-actualites/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">Laporan kami</a> menemukan bahwa nilai total proyek energi terbarukan yang direncanakan UEA dengan berbagai mitra pada dekade ini berjumlah lebih dari $300 miliar (Rp4.600 triliun). Analisis kami menemukan bahwa jumlah ini jauh lebih besar dibandingkan investasi energi ramah lingkungan yang dimobilisasi oleh kepresidenan COP sebelumnya.</p>
<p>Agenda COP28 yang <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/13/what-is-the-uae-cop28-plan-of-climate-action">UEA promosikan</a> juga menawarkan jalur menjanjikan untuk mempercepat transisi bahan bakar fosil global.</p>
<p>Agenda tersebut mencakup tujuan peningkatan kapasitas energi terbarukan sebanyak tiga kali lipat dalam tujuh tahun ke depan. Ekspansi besar-besaran ini berpeluang memangkas ongkos investasi energi terbarukan dan mengalahkan nilai keekonomian <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-%2005/Impact-on-solar-energy-costs-of-tripling-renewables-capacity-by-2030.pdf?ref=ageoftransformation.org">bahan bakar fosil dengan cepat</a>, setidaknya dalam <a href="https://doi.%20org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009">20 tahun ke depan</a>.</p>
<p>COP28 juga mengagendakan pertemuan agar negara-negara setuju menghilangkan produksi bahan bakar fosil di mana emisi karbon tidak dapat ditangkap pada pertengahan abad ini. Kesepakatan tersebut dapat mempercepat peningkatan penangkapan, penggunaan, dan penyimpanan karbon secara komersial.</p>
<p>Restrukturisasi pendanaan iklim agar berbiaya rendah dan mengurangi beban utang, seperti yang diusulkan oleh kepresidenan UEA, pada akhirnya dapat <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/09/19/cop28-president-unga%20-transformasi-pendanaan-iklim-menjembatani-triliun-kesenjangan-politik-lingkungan-sultan-al-jaber/">membuat dana triliunan dolar mengalir</a>. Dana ini sangat dibutuhkan negara berkembang untuk transisi energi sembari melakukan industrialisasi. Apalagi, kekurangan pendanaan adalah <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.06.024">hambatan utama transisi energi di negara berkembang</a> sehingga agenda ini dalam COP 28 sangatlah penting.</p>
<p>Kabar bahwa CEO perusahaan minyak memimpin pertemuan puncak perubahan iklim merupakan hal yang mengkhawatirkan bagi siapa pun yang mengupayakan aksi cepat mengurangi penggunaan bahan bakar fosil. Kita juga masih harus dilihat seberapa besar dedikasi UEA dalam kebijakan-kebijakan ini.</p>
<p>Namun, saya dan rekan penulis laporan ini menyimpulkan bahwa jika COP28 berhasil mencapai kesepakatan penting mengenai isu-isu di atas, hal ini akan menjadi langkah signifikan dalam mempercepat transisi yang adil dari bahan bakar fosil. COP 28 juga dapat memicu perbaikan besar dalam hal-hal yang berkaitan dengan bahan bakar fosil, sebagaimana diusulkan dalam COP sebelumnya.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218258/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>İbrahim Özdemir sebelumnya adalah Direktur Jenderal Departemen Luar Negeri di Kementerian Pendidikan Nasional di Turki. Ibhrahim sebelumnya adalah anggota Dewan Komisi Turki UNESCO 2005 - 2010, Turk Felsefe Dernegi (Asosiasi Filsafat Turki) 2001 - 2009, dan Turkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosion, for Reforestation and the Protection of Natural Habitats 2000 - 2004.</span></em></p>Analisis lima presidensi konferensi iklim masa lalu menunjukkan bahwa COP28 justru berpotensi mempercepat transisi bahan bakar fosil.Ibrahim Ozdemir, Professor of Philosophy, Uskudar University; Visiting Professor, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2169822023-11-22T13:17:37Z2023-11-22T13:17:37ZIn the face of death, destruction and displacement, beauty plays a vital role in Gaza<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560196/original/file-20231117-30-92u3yz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C79%2C1273%2C769&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Palestinian boy climbs on a painted wall in the Shati refugee camp in Gaza City in 2015.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/57cf18ae6b8f5ba693497e1a/1474043441471-IU9GCH5Y6Z8XP9M8EYQJ/ap_63282323864.jpg?format=2500w">AP Photo/Hatem Moussa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A small group of children in Gaza sit on a lavender and white blanket around a small tray of beverages, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CzLUHMvtgo3/">singing “Happy Birthday”</a> to a young girl. Like kids her age around the world, she wears a sweatshirt with prints of Elsa and Anna, characters from “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2294629/">Frozen</a>”; unlike most kids, she’s celebrating against a backdrop of a war that, according to United Nations estimates as of Nov. 10, 2023, <a href="https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-44">has already killed more than 4,500 Palestinian children</a>. </p>
<p>Celebrating anything might seem odd or even inappropriate in the face of so much devastation – and in the middle of what <a href="https://time.com/6334409/is-whats-happening-gaza-genocide-experts/">many are calling genocide</a>.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/75786">in the research</a> of refugees that I’ve conducted with interdisciplinary artist and scholar <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14036096.2013.789071">Devora Neumark</a>, we’ve found that the urge to beautify one’s surroundings is widespread and profoundly beneficial – particularly so in the harrowing circumstances of loss, displacement and danger.</p>
<p>When people find themselves displaced from their homes, finding or creating beauty can be just as vital as food, water and shelter.</p>
<h2>Gaza today</h2>
<p>In the first six weeks of the Israel-Hamas war, <a href="https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-40">70%</a> of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have had to leave <a href="https://sheltercluster.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/public/docs/Shelter%20Cluster_Gaza_Factsheet_%202%20November%202023.pdf?VersionId=yrMZO8faThzipir9nFzf8RNaOaefLSE5">or have lost their homes</a>. </p>
<p>Over half crowd into some type of emergency shelter, while others squeeze into relatives’ and neighbors’ homes. Food is scarce and increasingly expensive. According to the U.N., people are getting only <a href="https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-10#:%7E:text=As%20hostilities%20entered%20the%20tenth,Ministry%20of%20Health%20in%20Gaza">3% of the water</a> they need each day. Much of the water they do have is polluted.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Bird's eye view of buildings destroyed by bombs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560199/original/file-20231117-31-2b7ial.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560199/original/file-20231117-31-2b7ial.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560199/original/file-20231117-31-2b7ial.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560199/original/file-20231117-31-2b7ial.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560199/original/file-20231117-31-2b7ial.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560199/original/file-20231117-31-2b7ial.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560199/original/file-20231117-31-2b7ial.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The rubble of the Yassin mosque, at Shati refugee camp in Gaza City, destroyed in an Israeli airstrike in October 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AP23282360829019-1696857723.jpg">Hatem Moussa/AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Crops <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/11/6/our-hearts-burn-gazas-olive-farmers-say-israel-war-destroys-harvest">are dying</a>. Moms <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20231106-malnourished-sick-and-scared-pregnant-women-in-gaza-face-unthinkable-challenges">are not producing breast milk</a>. People are getting <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/disease-runs-rampant-gaza-clean-water-runs-rcna125091">sick</a>. There are severe shortages of <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20190108-lack-of-medicated-baby-formula-puts-life-of-gaza-children-at-stake/">baby formula</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-hospital-procedures-without-anaesthetics-prompted-screams-prayers-2023-11-10/">anesthesia</a> for those <a href="https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/nightmarish-gazas-pregnant-women-endure-c-sections-without-anesthesia-15823792">needing surgery</a>. The lack of space and overwhelming stress and fear <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/oct/13/gaza-diary-we-survived-another-night-every-inch-of-my-body-aches-lack-of-sleep-is-torture">add sleep</a> to the list of things that are hard to come by.</p>
<p>These needs are urgent and essential. Without them people will die. <a href="https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-32">Too many already have</a>, while the conditions for those who live are horrific. They make it hard to see much else. </p>
<p>But the endless images of bombs and blood <a href="https://www.facebook.com/DaysofPalestine/posts/palestinian-school-girls-in-uniform-take-part-in-a-traditional-dabka-as-musician/2754532801440104/?locale=hi_IN">hide the story of the life</a>, <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/gaza-colorful-neighborhood-video_n_55c26079e4b0138b0bf4dc42">color</a> and <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/features/%E2%80%9Cwe-paint-safeguard-our-heritage%E2%80%9D">creativity</a> that existed in Gaza. And they hide the beauty that persists despite war. </p>
<p>Beauty is often viewed as a luxury. But this isn’t the case. It’s the opposite.</p>
<h2>A human impulse</h2>
<p>Beauty has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/160940690900800205">a hallmark</a> of <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt28557b">every human civilization</a>. Art philosopher <a href="https://books.google.it/books/about/The_Abuse_of_Beauty.html?id=hUFMv8LxuVUC&redir_esc=y">Arthur Danto</a> wrote that beauty, while optional for art, is not an option for life. Neuroscientists have shown that our brains are biologically <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/12/how-the-human-brain-is-wired-for-beauty/672291/">wired for beauty</a>: The neural mechanisms that influence attention and perception have adapted to notice color, form, proportion and pattern.</p>
<p>We’ve found that refugees worldwide, often with limited or no legal rights, <a href="https://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/75786">still invest considerable effort in beautifying</a> their surroundings. Whether they’re staying in shelters or makeshift apartments, they paint walls, hang pictures, add wallpaper and carpet the floors. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0011392120927755">They transform</a> plain and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2020.587063">seemingly temporary</a> accommodations into <a href="https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.43234">personalized spaces</a> – into semblances of home. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three people cover a tent with decorative fabric" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560200/original/file-20231117-19-58ix1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560200/original/file-20231117-19-58ix1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560200/original/file-20231117-19-58ix1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560200/original/file-20231117-19-58ix1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560200/original/file-20231117-19-58ix1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560200/original/file-20231117-19-58ix1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560200/original/file-20231117-19-58ix1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A decorative tarp added to a shelter at the Jeddah camp in Iraq.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://sheltercluster.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/public/docs/GSC-Achievements-Report-2022_0.pdf?VersionId=ZQC_sNMTIhYrmybN1zjKIvMgqHcbYSEp">Sami Abdulla</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Refugees <a href="https://doi.org/10.3167/ame.2021.160103">rearrange spaces</a> to share meals, celebrate holidays and host parties – to greet friends, hold <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2020.1798747">dances</a> and say goodbyes. They burn incense, serve tea in decorative porcelain and recite prayers on ornate mats. These simple acts <a href="https://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/75786">carry profound significance</a>, even amid challenges.</p>
<p>Urban studies scholars Layla Zibar, Nurhan Abujidi and Bruno de Meulder <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv25wxbvf.7">have told the story of Um Ibrahim</a>, a Syrian refugee. When she was pregnant, she and her husband transformed the tent they were issued at a refugee camp in the Kurdistan region of Iraq into home. They built brick walls. She planned paint colors and furniture. Around her, neighbors potted plants and set up chairs to create front porches on their temporary shelters to be able to gather with friends. They turned roads into places for celebrating special occasions. They painted a flag at the entrance of the camp. </p>
<p>They made a new home, but they also made it feel like it “<a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv25wxbvf.7">used to in Syria</a>.” </p>
<h2>Creating hope in a hopeless place</h2>
<p>The benefits of beauty are both practical and transformative, especially for refugees. </p>
<p>Many refugees <a href="https://doi.org/10.1192%2Fpb.bp.114.047951">experience trauma</a>. All <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/rsq/hdt004">experience loss</a>. Beautifying is a way to exert agency, grieve and heal.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2013.789071">Simple acts</a> – rearranging a home, sweeping the floor or intentionally placing an object – allow refugees to infuse an area with their <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv25wxbvf.9">own identity and taste</a>. They provide a way to cope when one has little control over anything else. Often, once someone is labeled a refugee, all their other identities <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09502386.2015.1113633">are overshadowed or disappear</a>. </p>
<p>Devora Neumark’s study of over 200 individuals who experienced forced displacement found that beautifying the home helped <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2013.789071">heal intergenerational trauma</a> caused by forced displacement. </p>
<p>Neumark observed that as children participated in efforts to beautify their home, it seemed to positively influence their own coping mechanisms and well-being.</p>
<p>Furthermore, if children could imagine their homes prior to displacement through the stories and images shared with them – what scholar Marianne Hirsch calls “<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/472334.Family_Frames">postmemories</a>” – then the actions taken to beautify their present-day homes could be transformative. They served as a bridge connecting the past with the present and facilitated the ongoing process of healing and preserving identity. </p>
<p>Ultimately, making a space feel more comfortable, secure and personalized is a tangible expression of hope <a href="https://doi.org/10.25071/1920-7336.40141">for a future</a>. </p>
<h2>Cultivating love and life</h2>
<p>Even prior to the start of the Israel-Hamas war, Palestinians lived in the face of immense injustice and violence. </p>
<p>Our Palestinian research partner, who must remain anonymous for security reasons, described that their home in the refugee camp feels like living in jail, but that they still make it a beautiful place to live. </p>
<p>Prior to the start of the latest war, neighborhoods featured <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/features/%E2%80%9Cwe-paint-safeguard-our-heritage%E2%80%9D">striking murals</a> and <a href="https://banksyexplained.com/the-segregation-wall-palestine-2005/">embellished walls</a>. <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/02/gaza-mosque-history-islamic-civiliation-mamluk.html">Intricate mosaics</a> adorned buildings, and <a href="https://unicornriot.ninja/2023/colorful-neighborhood-in-gaza-celebrates-ramadan-with-vibrant-colors/">paint livened</a> the facades of homes. Neighbors would gather to pray, putting on new clothes, spraying perfume and burning incense to prepare for the rituals. As Christmas approached, Palestinian Christians, along with some Muslims, would <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2221441/middle-east">decorate their homes</a>. Both faiths would gather for <a href="https://www.newarab.com/media/images/gaza-begins-christmas-celebrations">annual tree lightings</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People sit on a colorful carpet on a makeshift table eating prepared food." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560203/original/file-20231117-19-42v59b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560203/original/file-20231117-19-42v59b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560203/original/file-20231117-19-42v59b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560203/original/file-20231117-19-42v59b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560203/original/file-20231117-19-42v59b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560203/original/file-20231117-19-42v59b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560203/original/file-20231117-19-42v59b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Palestinians sit down for a meal of quail meat in a home at a refugee camp in Gaza in November 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/november-2020-palestinian-territories-khan-yunis-news-photo/1229669375?adppopup=true">Mohammed Talatene/Picture Alliance via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Geographer David Marshall described how youth living in a Palestinian refugee camp used beauty to focus on the positives in their environment and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13562576.2013.780713">dream about</a> a future beyond their camp – and the walls that constrained their lives. </p>
<p>In our community-based storytelling project in a Palestinian refugee camp this past summer, we witnessed the commitment to making homes beautiful in the thriving gardens that were created within very crowded quarters. Neighbors shared how their gardens <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pandemics-gardening-boom-shows-how-gardens-can-cultivate-public-health-181426">calm them</a>, provide a place to gather with friends and serve as a reminder of fields they once tended.</p>
<p>In her 2021 research, Corinne Van Emmerick, a Ph.D. candidate in sociology, described Fatena, a Palestinian who was living in a refugee camp. She had <a href="https://romatrepress.uniroma3.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/15.Aesthetics-from-the-Interstices.pdf">flowers on everything</a> – the roof, walls and windowsills. They were expensive and needed “lots of love.” But, Fatena added, they gave her “love back.”</p>
<h2>A form of resistance and resilience</h2>
<p>One Guinean refugee interviewed as part of Neumark’s study said, “As refugees we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2013.789071">lose our sense of beauty</a>, and when that happens, we lose our sense of everything, of life itself.”</p>
<p>If the opposite of this is true, then clearly beauty cannot be thought of as superficial or an afterthought. One study of Bosnian refugees found that their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01612840490506392">ability to notice beauty</a> was a sign of improved mental health.</p>
<p>Creating, witnessing and experiencing beauty offers a connection to the familiar, works to preserve cultural identity and fosters belonging. </p>
<p>It’s what ensures that a little girl in Gaza not only has her birthday celebrated, but that it is also made as beautiful as possible.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A girl wears a birthday hat and holds three balloons in front of a destroyed building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560541/original/file-20231120-23-8nqyl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560541/original/file-20231120-23-8nqyl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560541/original/file-20231120-23-8nqyl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560541/original/file-20231120-23-8nqyl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560541/original/file-20231120-23-8nqyl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560541/original/file-20231120-23-8nqyl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560541/original/file-20231120-23-8nqyl2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Palestinian girl celebrates in front of a house destroyed by Israeli shelling during the 2014 Israel-Hamas war.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/palestinian-girl-during-a-party-amuse-children-in-front-of-news-photo/526077258?adppopup=true">Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>Devora Neumark, an interdisciplinary artist and researcher whose trauma-informed work explores the intersections between a home beautification and the human experience in the context of displacement, contributed to writing this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216982/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephanie Acker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When people find themselves displaced from their homes, finding or creating beauty can be just as vital as food, water and shelter − and serves as a form of resistance and resilience.Stephanie Acker, Visiting Scholar of International Development, Community and Environment, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166552023-10-30T19:06:42Z2023-10-30T19:06:42ZComment le magnat du pétrole qui préside la COP28 compte porter les ambitions des pays du Sud<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556583/original/file-20231012-21-7d5266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Le sultan Ahmed al Jaber, PDG de la compagnie pétrolière nationale des Émirats arabes unis, dirigera la conférence des Nations unies sur le climat COP28.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sultan-al-jaber-chief-executive-of-the-uaes-abu-dhabi-news-photo/1529645349">Francois Walschaerts/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>En décembre 2023, les négociateurs des pays du monde entier se réuniront aux Émirats arabes unis pour le prochain cycle de <a href="https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetailsIII.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7&chapter=27&Temp=mtdsg3&clang=_en">négociations internationales sur le climat</a>. Alors que ces négociations sont <a href="https://theconversation.com/solidarite-nord-sud-financements-debats-sur-le-1-5-c-methane-ce-quil-faut-retenir-de-la-cop27-194988">considérées comme essentielles pour obtenir les accords mondiaux nécessaires</a> pour éviter d’atteindre un changement climatique dangereux, la <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-15/climate-talks-ahead-of-cop28-raise-concerns-of-weak-outcome">confiance dans le sommet, connu sous le nom de COP28, est au plus bas</a>. L’une des raisons tient à la personne qui est aux commandes.</p>
<p>Les Émirats arabes unis ont mis le feu aux poudres en janvier 2023 en annonçant que le sultan Ahmed al Jaber, PDG de l’entreprise publique Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), serait le président désigné du sommet sur le climat, ce qui lui donnerait un large contrôle sur l’ordre du jour de la réunion.</p>
<p><em>[Plus de 85 000 lecteurs font confiance aux newsletters de The Conversation pour mieux comprendre les grands enjeux du monde. <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=france&region=fr">Abonnez-vous aujourd’hui</a>]</em></p>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/us-eu-lawmakers-want-al-jaber-out-as-cop28-president?leadSource=uverify%20wall">Des hommes politiques américains et européens</a> ont exigé la démission de M. al-Jaber. L’ancien vice-président américain Al Gore <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/65423811-7c7e-4ae5-876d-ffbed29cefcf">a affirmé</a> que les intérêts des industries fossiles avaient « capturé le processus des Nations unies à un degré inquiétant, allant jusqu’à nommer le PDG de l’une des plus grandes compagnies pétrolières du monde à la présidence de la COP28 ».</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="John Kerry à côté de Ahmed al Jaber" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">L’envoyé présidentiel des États-Unis pour le climat, John Kerry, a échangé avec le sultan Ahmed al Jaber lors du Forum mondial de l’énergie de l’Atlantic Council à Abu Dhabi le 14 janvier 2023. John Kerry a apporté son soutien à M. al-Jaber lorsqu’il a été choisi pour diriger la COP28.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/united-arab-emirates-minister-of-state-and-ceo-of-the-abu-news-photo/1246218348?adppopup=true">Karim Sahib/AFP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Les inquiétudes quant à l’obstruction des politiques proclimat par les industries fossiles sont tout à fait légitimes, à mon avis. Il existe de <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.809">nombreuses preuves</a> que les plus grandes industries fossiles savaient déjà depuis des décennies que leurs produits provoqueraient le changement climatique, et qu’elles ont délibérément tenté de nier les sciences du climat et de s’opposer à l’évolution des politiques climatiques.</p>
<p>Cependant, je pense que les appels à <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2023/09/30/boycott-cop28-holding-a-climate-conference-in-dubai-is-absurd-and-dangerous_6142129_23.html">boycotter la COP28</a> et à bannir le choix de la région pour la diriger sapent la crédibilité des négociations des Nations unies et négligent le potentiel du programme de la COP28.</p>
<p>J’ai été conseiller du <a href="https://www.unep.org/">Programme des Nations unies pour l’environnement</a> et je suis <a href="https://www.clarku.edu/faculty/profiles/ibrahim-ozdemir/">spécialiste de l’éthique environnementale</a>. Mes propres préoccupations sur cette question m’ont amené à faire équipe avec six collègues du Sud pour mener une <a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">analyse comparative détaillée</a> des objectifs et du comportement des cinq dernières présidences de la COP sur le climat.</p>
<p>Nous avons conclu, à notre grande surprise, que le programme politique promu par la présidence des Émirats arabes unis à la COP28 pourrait largement contribuer à accélérer la transition vers la sortie des énergies fossiles. Nous avons également constaté que de nombreuses critiques formulées à l’encontre de la présidence des Émirats arabes unis étaient infondées.</p>
<h2>Comment Ahmed al Jaber a été choisi</h2>
<p>Tout d’abord, il est utile de comprendre comment les présidents des COP sont choisis.</p>
<p>Le choix du pays qui accueille le sommet de la COP est géré par un <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/the-big-picture/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences/how-cops-are-organized-questions-and-answers#Host-country-and-presidency">processus des Nations unies</a> qui fait l’objet d’une alternance démocratique <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/the-big-picture/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences/how-cops-are-organized-questions-and-answers#Host-country-and-presidency">entre six régions</a>. Les pays de chaque région se consultent pour savoir qui représentera leur région, et ce pays fait une proposition, qui est évaluée et finalisée par le secrétariat qui gère la Convention-cadre des Nations unies sur les changements climatiques.</p>
<p>Pour la COP28, la région Asie-Pacifique, qui se compose d’un ensemble diversifié de pays en développement, a choisi les Émirats arabes unis et Ahmed al Jaber.</p>
<h2>Les préoccupations énergétiques des pays du Sud</h2>
<p>Pour certains pays du Sud, la perspective d’une <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop-27-une-decision-historique-et-un-terrible-statu-quo-194151">élimination progressive des énergies fossiles</a> – demandée par de nombreux groupes militants et pays à l’approche de la COP28 – semble non seulement décourageante, mais aussi une <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/312441468197382126/pdf/104866-v1-REVISED-PUBLIC-Main-report.pdf">menace pour le développement économique</a>.</p>
<p>Sur les dizaines de pays producteurs de pétrole dans le monde, environ la <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/just-transition-developing-countries-shift-oil-gas">moitié sont des pays en développement à revenu intermédiaire</a> dont les économies sont très vulnérables face à la volatilité des prix du pétrole et du gaz. Des études ont suggéré qu’une élimination rapide des énergies fossiles pourrait entraîner des <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0182-1">milliers de milliards de dollars de pertes</a> dues aux investissements dans les infrastructures des pays producteurs de pétrole, s’ils n’y sont pas préparés.</p>
<p><iframe id="m97kW" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/m97kW/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>En même temps, de nombreux États du Sud sont confrontés aux <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">conséquences démesurées du changement climatique</a>, qu’il s’agisse de phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes ou de l’élévation du niveau de la mer qui peuvent <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/amid-rising-seas-island-nations-push-for-legal-protection">menacer l’existence même</a> de leurs communautés.</p>
<p>Ahmed Al Jaber a qualifié l’élimination progressive des combustibles fossiles d’<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/13/phase-down-of-fossil-fuel-inevitable-and-essential-says-cop28-president">« inévitable » et d’« essentielle »</a>, mais il a aussi déclaré que le système énergétique et les pays du Sud <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/10/world-not-ready-to-switch-off-fossil-fuels-uae-says">n’étaient pas prêts pour une élimination rapide du fossile</a> tant que les énergies renouvelables n’augmenteront pas, et que le sommet devrait <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2496902-uaes-aljaber-says-cop-28-must-focus-on-adaptation">se concentrer sur l’adaptation</a>. Ce point de vue, bien que soutenu par certains pays du Sud, a suscité de vives critiques.</p>
<h2>Al Jaber, Masdar et l’Adnoc</h2>
<p>La présidence de la COP28 par Ahmed Al-Jaber a été décrite par certains comme une <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/middleeast/cop-28-dubai-greenwashing-climate/index.html">tentative des Émirats arabes unis de « verdir »</a> les plans d’expansion pétrolière et gazière d’Adnoc, l’une des plus grandes compagnies pétrolières au monde.</p>
<p>Bien que je sois sensible à cette préoccupation, mes collègues et moi-même l’avons trouvée beaucoup trop simpliste. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28">Al-Jaber</a> a passé l’essentiel de sa carrière dans le secteur des énergies renouvelables. En 2006, il a <a href="https://masdar.ae/en/About-Us/Management/History-and-Legacy">fondé et dirigé</a> la société d’État des Émirats arabes unis spécialisée dans les énergies renouvelables, Masdar, qu’il a aidée à devenir le <a href="https://www.energyglobal.com/wind/07062023/uae-and-egypt-advance-development-of-africas-biggest-wind-farm/">plus grand opérateur d’énergies renouvelables en Afrique</a>.</p>
<p>Il a été nommé PDG de l’Adnoc en 2016, dans le cadre du lancement officiel par les Émirats arabes unis d’une <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12457">stratégie nationale pour l’après-pétrole</a>. L’année précédente, le prince héritier Mohammed bin Zayed avait prononcé un discours <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/abu-dhabi-s-journey-towards-celebrating-the-last-barrel-of-oil-gathers-pace-1.737529">déclarant</a> que les Émirats arabes unis célébreraient « le dernier baril de pétrole » d’ici le milieu du siècle.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Trois hommes en train de discuter." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Le sultan Ahmed al-Jaber a rencontré les responsables de plusieurs pays en développement, dont le ministre indien de l’environnement, des forêts et du changement climatique, Bhupender Yadav (à droite).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bhupender-yadav-indias-minister-for-environment-forest-and-news-photo/1559090143">R.Satish Babu/AFP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>L’Adnoc a été fortement critiquée pour avoir prévu d’investir 150 milliards de dollars dans l’expansion de ses capacités pétrolières et gazières au cours de cette décennie. Je partage ces inquiétudes. Pour rester dans les limites de 1,5 °C de réchauffement climatique adoptées dans le cadre de l’accord de Paris, le monde pourrait devoir <a href="https://climatechangenews.com/2023/09/27/new-iea-net-zero-report-leaves-big-polluters-less-room-to-hide/">cesser les nouveaux investissements dans les combustibles fossiles</a>, comme l’a préconisé l’Agence internationale de l’énergie, et aussi <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6228">déclasser quelque 40 %</a> des réserves de combustibles fossiles déjà exploitées.</p>
<p>Cependant, je pense également qu’il faut replacer cette question dans un contexte mondial lorsque l’on discute de la présidence de la COP28 : des <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/12/us-behind-more-than-a-third-of-global-oil-and-gas-expansion-plans-report-finds">plans de croissance des énergies fossiles bien plus importants</a> que ceux des Émirats arabes unis sont menés par les États-Unis, le Canada, la Russie, l’Iran, la Chine et le Brésil. La majeure partie du financement des énergies fossiles dans le monde provient de <a href="https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/2023.04.13_Report_Banking-On-Climate-Chaos-2023.pdf">banques des États-Unis, du Canada et du Japon</a>. Et depuis 2015, les banques européennes ont <a href="https://reclaimfinance.org/site/en/2023/04/13/european-banks-are-among-the-biggest-drivers-of-fossil-fuel-expansion/">versé un montant colossal de 1,3 billion de dollars dans les combustibles fossiles</a>, dont 130 milliards de dollars pour la seule année 2022.</p>
<h2>Le programme de la COP28</h2>
<p>Dans notre évaluation, nous avons constaté que les Émirats arabes unis font déjà preuve d’un leadership qui va au-delà des présidences précédentes de la COP.</p>
<p><a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">Notre rapport</a> a révélé que la valeur totale des projets d’énergie renouvelable prévus par les Émirats arabes unis avec divers partenaires au cours de la décennie s’élève à plus de 300 milliards de dollars. Selon notre analyse, ce montant est considérablement plus élevé que les investissements dans les énergies propres mobilisés par les présidences précédentes de la COP.</p>
<p>Le programme de la COP28 que les <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/13/what-is-the-uae-cop28-plan-of-climate-action">Émirats arabes unis promeuvent</a> offre également une voie prometteuse pour accélérer la transition vers l’abandon des énergies fossiles.</p>
<p>Il prévoit de tripler la capacité des énergies renouvelables au cours des sept prochaines années, en réduisant encore les coûts pour <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-05/Impact-on-solar-energy-costs-of-tripling-renewables-capacity-by-2030.pdf?ref=ageoftransformation.org">concurrencer rapidement les combustibles fossiles</a>, potentiellement au cours des <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009">20 prochaines années</a>.</p>
<p>Il demande également aux pays d’accepter de cesser la production d’énergies fossiles lorsque les émissions de CO<sub>2</sub> ne sont pas capturées d’ici au milieu du siècle, ce qui pourrait accélérer le développement <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-capture-et-le-stockage-du-carbone-comment-ca-marche-192673">de la capture, de l'utilisation et du stockage du CO2</a> à des fins commerciales.</p>
<p>Enfin, la restructuration du financement de la lutte contre le changement climatique pour le rendre moins coûteux et réduire le fardeau de la dette, comme le propose la présidence des Émirats arabes unis, pourrait <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/09/19/cop28-president-unga-transform-climate-finance-bridge-trillion-gap-environment-politics-sultan-al-jaber/">débloquer les milliers de milliards de dollars</a> dont le monde en développement a désespérément besoin pour soutenir ses transitions énergétiques tout en s’industrialisant. Étant donné que le manque de financement est le <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.06.024">principal obstacle à la transition énergétique dans les pays en développement</a>, il est essentiel que la COP28 se concentre sur ce point.</p>
<p>Certes, le fait qu’un PDG du secteur pétrolier dirige un sommet sur le climat est inquiétant pour tous ceux qui prônent une réduction progressive et rapide des combustibles fossiles, et il reste à voir dans quelle mesure les Émirats arabes unis sont attachés à ces politiques. Mais mes coauteurs et moi-même <a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">avons conclu</a> que si le sommet de la COP28 parvient à conclure des accords historiques sur les questions susmentionnées, il s’agira d’une avancée significative dans l’accélération d’une transition juste vers l’abandon des énergies fossiles. Mais aussi d’une amélioration considérable par rapport à ce qui a été proposé lors des précédents sommets de la COP.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216655/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>İbrahim Özdemir a précédemment été directeur général du département des affaires étrangères au sein du ministère de l'Éducation nationale en Turquie. Il a également été membre du Conseil de la Commission turque de l'UNESCO entre 2005 et 2010, de Turk Felsefe Dernegi (Association philosophique turque) entre 2001 et 2009, et de la Fondation turque pour la lutte contre l'érosion des sols, le reboisement et la protection des habitats naturels entre 2000 et 2004.</span></em></p>Une analyse des précédentes présidences des COP suggère que le programme des Émirats arabes unis pourrait apporter une contribution inédite à la sortie des énergies fossiles.Ibrahim Ozdemir, Professor of Philosophy, Uskudar University; Visiting Professor, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2154162023-10-24T12:23:14Z2023-10-24T12:23:14ZBacklash to the oil CEO leading the UN climate summit overlooks his ambitious agenda for COP28 – and concerns of the Global South<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553511/original/file-20231012-21-7d5266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, CEO of the United Arab Emirates' state oil company, will be leading the COP28 United Nations climate conference.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sultan-al-jaber-chief-executive-of-the-uaes-abu-dhabi-news-photo/1529645349">Francois Walschaerts/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In December 2023, negotiators from countries worldwide will meet in the United Arab Emirates for the next round of <a href="https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetailsIII.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7&chapter=27&Temp=mtdsg3&clang=_en">international climate talks</a>. While the talks are considered essential to securing global agreements needed to avoid dangerous climate change, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-15/climate-talks-ahead-of-cop28-raise-concerns-of-weak-outcome">confidence in the summit, known as COP28, is at a low</a>. One reason is the man in charge.</p>
<p>The UAE set off a firestorm in January 2023 when it announced that Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the CEO of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company – also known as ADNOC – would be the president-designate of the climate summit, giving him a large amount of control over the meeting’s agenda.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-23/us-eu-lawmakers-want-al-jaber-out-as-cop28-president?leadSource=uverify%20wall">U.S. and European politicians</a> demanded al-Jaber’s resignation. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/65423811-7c7e-4ae5-876d-ffbed29cefcf">claimed</a> that fossil fuel interests had “captured the U.N. process to a disturbing degree, even putting the CEO of one of the largest oil companies in the world in as president of COP28.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Kerry, in a western business suit, touches Al Jaber's arm as they speak. Al Jaber is in traditional Middle Eastern attire. Both men are tall and about the same height." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553512/original/file-20231012-25-d9xkn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry spoke with
Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber during the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi on Jan. 14, 2023. Kerry was supportive when al-Jaber was chosen to head COP28.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/united-arab-emirates-minister-of-state-and-ceo-of-the-abu-news-photo/1246218348?adppopup=true">Karim Sahib/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Concerns about the role of fossil fuel industries in obstructing pro-climate policies are entirely legitimate, in my view. There is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.809">abundant evidence</a> that the largest fossil fuel companies knew their products would cause climate change decades ago, but deliberately attempted to deny climate science and oppose climate policies.</p>
<p>However, I believe calls to <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2023/09/30/boycott-cop28-holding-a-climate-conference-in-dubai-is-absurd-and-dangerous_6142129_23.html">boycott COP28</a> and ban the region’s choice to lead it are undermining the credibility of United Nations negotiations and are overlooking the potential of the COP28 agenda.</p>
<p>I am a former adviser to the <a href="https://www.unep.org/">U.N. Environment Program </a> and a <a href="https://www.clarku.edu/faculty/profiles/ibrahim-ozdemir/">scholar of environmental ethics</a>. My own concerns about this issue led me to team up with six colleagues from across the Global South to conduct <a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">a detailed comparative analysis</a> of the goals and behavior of the five most recent COP presidencies.</p>
<p>We concluded, to our surprise, that the policy agenda being promoted by the UAE’s COP28 presidency would do much to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. We also found that many criticisms of the UAE’s presidency are unfounded.</p>
<h2>How al-Jaber was chosen</h2>
<p>First, it’s useful to understand how COP presidents are chosen. </p>
<p>Choosing which country hosts a COP summit is managed by a <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/the-big-picture/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences/how-cops-are-organized-questions-and-answers#Host-country-and-presidency">United Nations process</a> that rotates democratically <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/the-big-picture/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences/how-cops-are-organized-questions-and-answers#Host-country-and-presidency">among six regions</a>. The countries in each region consult about who will represent their region, and that country makes a pitch, which is assessed and finalized by the secretariat that runs the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.</p>
<p>For COP28, the Asia-Pacific region, which consists of a diverse mix of developing nations, chose the UAE and al-Jaber.</p>
<h2>Energy concerns of the Global South</h2>
<p>For some Global South nations, the prospect of phasing out fossil fuels – called for by many activist groups and countries headed into COP28 – seems not only daunting, but a <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/312441468197382126/pdf/104866-v1-REVISED-PUBLIC-Main-report.pdf">threat to economic development</a>.</p>
<p>Of the dozens of oil-producing countries in the world, around <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/just-transition-developing-countries-shift-oil-gas">half are middle-income developing countries</a> with economies that are highly vulnerable to volatile oil and gas prices. Studies have suggested that a fast fossil fuel phaseout could cause <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0182-1">trillion-dollar losses</a> related to infrastructure investments in oil-producing countries if they aren’t prepared.</p>
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<p>At the same time, however, many nations of the Global South face <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">disproportionate consequences from climate change</a>, from extreme weather events to rising sea levels that can <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/amid-rising-seas-island-nations-push-for-legal-protection">threaten the very existence</a> of their communities.</p>
<p>Al-Jaber has called phasing down fossil fuels <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/13/phase-down-of-fossil-fuel-inevitable-and-essential-says-cop28-president">“inevitable” and “essential”</a>, but he has said the energy system and the Global South <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/10/world-not-ready-to-switch-off-fossil-fuels-uae-says">aren’t ready for a fast phaseout</a> until renewable energy ramps up and that the summit should <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en//news/2496902-uaes-aljaber-says-cop-28-must-focus-on-adaptation">focus on adaptation</a>. That view, while supported by some countries in the Global South, has drawn sharp criticism.</p>
<h2>Al-Jaber, Masdar and ADNOC</h2>
<p>Al-Jaber’s presidency of COP28 has been described by some as an <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/middleeast/cop-28-dubai-greenwashing-climate/index.html">attempt by the UAE to “greenwash”</a> oil and gas expansion plans by ADNOC, one of the largest oil companies in the world.</p>
<p>While I am sympathetic to this concern, my colleagues and I found it to be far too simplistic. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28">Al-Jaber</a> spent the bulk of his career in the renewable energy sector. In 2006, he <a href="https://masdar.ae/en/About-Us/Management/History-and-Legacy">founded and ran</a> the UAE state-owned renewable energy company, Masdar, which he helped to grow into the <a href="https://www.energyglobal.com/wind/07062023/uae-and-egypt-advance-development-of-africas-biggest-wind-farm/">largest renewable operator in Africa</a>.</p>
<p>He was appointed CEO of ADNOC in 2016, in the context of the UAE’s official launch of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12457">a national “post oil strategy</a>.” The previous year, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed delivered a speech to a UAE government summit <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/abu-dhabi-s-journey-towards-celebrating-the-last-barrel-of-oil-gathers-pace-1.737529">declaring</a> that the UAE would celebrate “the last barrel of oil” by mid-century.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three men standing and talking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553513/original/file-20231012-23-fxf8u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber has met with officials in several developing countries, including India’s minister for environment, forest and climate change, Bhupender Yadav, right.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bhupender-yadav-indias-minister-for-environment-forest-and-news-photo/1559090143">R.Satish Babu/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>ADNOC has been heavily criticized for planning to invest US$150 billion in oil and gas expansion capacity this decade. I share these concerns. To stay within the 1.5-degree Celsius (2.7-Fahrenheit) global warming limits adopted under the Paris Agreement, the world may need to <a href="https://climatechangenews.com/2023/09/27/new-iea-net-zero-report-leaves-big-polluters-less-room-to-hide/">cease new fossil fuel investments</a>, as the International Energy Agency has urged, and also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6228">decommission some 40%</a> of already developed fossil fuel reserves. </p>
<p>However, I also believe this must be viewed in a global context when discussing the COP28 presidency: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/12/us-behind-more-than-a-third-of-global-oil-and-gas-expansion-plans-report-finds">Far larger fossil fuel growth plans</a> than the UAE’s are being led by the U.S., Canada, Russia, Iran, China and Brazil. Most fossil fuel financing around the world comes from <a href="https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/2023.04.13_Report_Banking-On-Climate-Chaos-2023.pdf">banks in the U.S., Canada and Japan</a>. And since 2015, European banks have <a href="https://reclaimfinance.org/site/en/2023/04/13/european-banks-are-among-the-biggest-drivers-of-fossil-fuel-expansion/">poured a colossal $1.3 trillion into fossil fuels</a>, including $130 billion in 2022 alone.</p>
<h2>The COP28 agenda</h2>
<p>In our assessment, we found that the UAE is already providing leadership that goes beyond previous COP presidencies.</p>
<p><a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">Our report</a> found that the total value of the renewable energy projects planned by the UAE with various partners this decade adds up to over $300 billion. This is considerably bigger than clean energy investments mobilized by previous COP presidencies, our analysis found.</p>
<p>The COP28 agenda that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/13/what-is-the-uae-cop28-plan-of-climate-action">the UAE is promoting</a> also offers a promising pathway to accelerate a transition away from fossil fuels.</p>
<p>The agenda includes a goal of tripling renewable energy capacity within the next seven years, further driving down costs to <a href="https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-05/Impact-on-solar-energy-costs-of-tripling-renewables-capacity-by-2030.pdf?ref=ageoftransformation.org">rapidly outcompete fossil fuels</a>, potentially within <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009">the next 20 years</a>.</p>
<p>It also calls for countries to agree to eliminate fossil fuel production where carbon emissions are not captured by around midcentury, which could fast-track scaling up carbon capture, usage and storage commercially.</p>
<p>And restructuring climate financing to make it low-cost and reduce debt burdens, as the UAE presidency proposes, could finally <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/09/19/cop28-president-unga-transform-climate-finance-bridge-trillion-gap-environment-politics-sultan-al-jaber/">unlock the trillions of dollars</a> desperately needed by the developing world to support its energy transitions while industrializing. Given that lack of financing is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.06.024">the key obstacle to the energy transition in developing countries</a>, COP28’s focus on this is critical.</p>
<p>Certainly, the optics of having an oil CEO lead a climate summit is concerning for anyone who advocates rapid-action phasing down of fossil fuels, and it remains to be seen how dedicated the UAE is to these policies. But I and my co-authors of the report <a href="https://cdn.uha.com.tr/content/files/cop-presidencies-comparative-analysis-tracked7073-230927011708.pdf">concluded</a> that if the COP28 summit succeeds in securing landmark agreements on the above issues, it would be a significant step forward in fast-tracking a just transition away from fossil fuels and a considerable improvement on what has been proposed in past COP summits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215416/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>İbrahim Özdemir was previously Director General of the Department of Foreign Affairs in the Ministry of National Education in Turkey. He was previously a member of the UNESCO Turkish Commission Board between 2005 and 2010, Turk Felsefe Dernegi (The Turkish Philosophical Association) between 2001 and 2009, and the Turkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosion, for Reforestation and the Protection of Natural Habitats between 2000 and 2004.</span></em></p>An analysis of past UN conference presidencies suggests the 2023 summit’s agenda would do more to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.Ibrahim Ozdemir, Professor of Philosophy, Uskudar University; Visiting Professor, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2115392023-08-28T14:43:12Z2023-08-28T14:43:12ZDRC: rising Twirwaneho rebel group highlights the unending volatility of the country’s east<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543291/original/file-20230817-43619-bs2zp0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A soldier guards a camp in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in January 2023.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Guerchom Ndebo/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/conflict-in-the-drc-5-articles-that-explain-whats-gone-wrong-195332">three-decade conflict in the eastern region</a> of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to the proliferation of <a href="https://www.radiookapi.net/2023/04/18/actualite/securite/est-de-la-rdc-266-groupes-armes-locaux-et-etrangers-recenses-par-le-p">hundreds of armed groups</a>. With the violence appearing to take an <a href="https://blog.kivusecurity.org/why-violence-in-the-south-kivu-highlands-is-not-ethnic-and-other-misconceptions-about-the-crisis/">ethnic slant</a>, several groups have emerged claiming to be protecting their communities from attacks. One such group is the Twirwaneho, which has <a href="https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2071779/ACCORD_DR+Congo_Situation+of+Banyamulenge.pdf#page=13">become more active</a> since 2019. Christopher P. Davey, who has <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TYPO3qoAAAAJ&hl=en">extensively studied</a> the drivers of conflict in eastern DRC, explains how the Twirwaneho’s claim of communal self-defence highlights the fractured nature of Congolese politics.</em></p>
<h2>What is the conflict in the DRC all about?</h2>
<p>The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been a theatre of <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violence-democratic-republic-congo">increasingly violent conflict</a> since the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Rwanda-genocide-of-1994">Rwandan genocide of 1994</a> pushed over a million refugees across the common border. Rwanda’s efforts to capture those responsible for the genocide sparked two wars in <a href="https://www.easterncongo.org/about-drc/history-of-the-conflict/">two wars</a>. Violence, driven by armed groups, has been persistent since. </p>
<p>Central to Congo’s politics is a broken relationship between the seat of government in Kinshasa, the underrepresented social and economic groups in the eastern region, and external parties. Added to this mix are transnational armed groups, foreign militaries, the <a href="https://civiliansinconflict.org/blog/monuscos-2022-mandate-streamlined-but-missing-key-protection-language/">UN peacekeeping mission</a> and Congolese state actors like the military. </p>
<p>This has resulted in the world’s <a href="https://www.unrefugees.org/news/democratic-republic-of-the-congo-refugee-crisis-explained/">longest-standing refugee crisis</a>. It has also led to the proliferation and fragmentation of <a href="https://www.congoresearchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/CRG-Armed-Groups-in-the-Congo.pdf#page=5">dozens of armed groups</a> in the eastern region. </p>
<p>One of these groups is the Twirwaneho, a <a href="https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2071779/ACCORD_DR+Congo_Situation+of+Banyamulenge.pdf#page=6">Banyamulenge</a> – or South Kivu-based Congolese Tutsi – self-defence/armed group. </p>
<p>This group is important to understand because its rising profile demonstrates the <a href="https://newbooksnetwork.com/jason-k-stearns-the-war-that-doesnt-say-its-name-the-unending-conflict-in-the-congo-princeton-up-2022">unending nature of Congo’s war</a>.</p>
<h2>Who are the Twirwaneho?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-banyamulenge-how-a-minority-ethnic-group-in-the-drc-became-the-target-of-rebels-and-its-own-government-201099">Banyamulenge</a> are a minority group in South Kivu, eastern DRC, who have faced <a href="https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2022/un-special-adviser-prevention-genocide-condemns-escalation-fighting-drc">attacks based on their ethnicity</a>. Formed in the early 2010s, Twirwaneho (meaning “let’s defend ourselves” in the Banyamulenge language) is a contemporary response by mutinying national army officers to continued conflict and local self-defence needs within the Banyamulenge community. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-banyamulenge-how-a-minority-ethnic-group-in-the-drc-became-the-target-of-rebels-and-its-own-government-201099">The Banyamulenge: how a minority ethnic group in the DRC became the target of rebels – and its own government</a>
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</em>
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<p>The overlap between <a href="https://casebook.icrc.org/a_to_z/glossary/self-defence">self-defence and armed groups</a> is not unique to the DRC. <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/jamh/aop/article-10.1163-24680966-bja10012/article-10.1163-24680966-bja10012.xml">My research</a> on the history of Banyamulenge soldiers shows that the <a href="https://kivusecurity.org/about/armedGroups">gumino</a> (“let’s stay here”) self-defence tradition was part the Rwandan Patriotic Front’s international campaign in the late 1980s. It was used to raise funds and recruit for the <a href="https://www.peaceagreements.org/view/conflict/52/Rwandan+Civil+War+%281990+-+1994%29">Rwandan civil war</a> (1990-1994). </p>
<p>This led to a generation of fighters <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0886260519900281">trained by the Rwandan Patriotic Front</a> who got into the ranks of various armed groups across both Congo wars. </p>
<p>These groups include Twirwaneho. Its leader is Michel “<a href="https://blog.kivusecurity.org/tag/makanika-2/">Makanika</a>” Rukunda, who was once in the Congolese national army before he mutinied in 2019. He transformed Twirwaneho militias into a militarily coordinated, and internationally represented and funded, fighting force. But he is also accused of human rights violations that have placed him on the European Union <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.LI.2023.190.01.0028.01.ENG&toc=OJ%3AL%3A2023%3A190I%3ATOC">sanctions list</a>. </p>
<p>The Twirwaneho’s direct role in national politics is minimal. However, the group has become a symbol of defiance for both the community it claims to defend and those who <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-banyamulenge-how-a-minority-ethnic-group-in-the-drc-became-the-target-of-rebels-and-its-own-government-201099">see Tutsis as foreign invaders</a>. Also, a <a href="https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn%3Aaaid%3Ascds%3AUS%3A7ae8352e-191d-39b0-858d-496fa13a25b2">report</a> from the UN group of experts on the DRC hints towards collaboration between Twirwaneho and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/m23-four-things-you-should-know-about-the-rebel-groups-campaign-in-rwanda-drc-conflict-195020">Rwanda-supported M23</a>.</p>
<h2>Is the group keeping the peace or fuelling conflict?</h2>
<p>The Twirwaneho <a href="https://twitter.com/twirwaneho/status/1664342022675746817/photo/1">claim</a> that neighbouring armed groups and the national army make up a coalition launching counterattacks on Banyamulenge villages. This is in reprisal for Twirwaneho operations against the military and <a href="https://chimpreports.com/burundi-army-fights-red-tabara-rebels-in-drc/">other armed groups</a> and connected populations. </p>
<p><a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/jamh/6/2/article-p107_2.xml">My research</a> shows that the Twirwaneho are related to, but distinct within, an array of armed groups in DRC engaged in a complex political, economic and at times existential struggle. </p>
<p>During Nairobi fieldwork, to understand more about the international side of the movement I met three young former rebels who had fled the Twirwaneho. They joined the group after their schools closed following increased local conflict. Graduating from students to soldiers, they fought this anti-Twirwaneho coalition. Echoing his community’s sentiment, one former Twirwaneho officer told me they are “not an armed group”. He emphasised this point: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… I was seeing myself as a civilian who decided to come and protect my community.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Inherent in the Twirwaneho’s fight are claims of stopping a Tutsi genocide in the DRC, also made by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/m23-four-things-you-should-know-about-the-rebel-groups-campaign-in-rwanda-drc-conflict-195020">M23</a>. However, increased fighting across North and South Kivu has <a href="https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn%3Aaaid%3Ascds%3AUS%3A7ae8352e-191d-39b0-858d-496fa13a25b2">exacerbated violence against all civilians</a>. </p>
<h2>What’s behind the group’s rising profile?</h2>
<p>Makanika as the emerging leader of the group has instilled discipline and “patriotism”. In my fieldwork I heard consistent claims of insufficient promotion and pay for Banyamulenge soldiers in the national army and persecution of their people. These claims became reasons for joining, along with a narrowing of options for traditional <a href="https://brill.com/view/journals/jamh/6/2/article-p107_2.xml">livelihoods</a>. </p>
<p>As command centred under Makanika, his diaspora reputation grew. Many Banyamulenge in the US and African Great Lakes region credit him with preserving the community. Young Banyamulenge men have left families and careers to join the Twirwaneho. The group recruits school children, pressures community members to join and draws on existing self-defence groups. </p>
<p>Coordinated by the <a href="https://twitter.com/MahoroMpa">Mahoro Peace Association</a>, the Banyamulenge diaspora has contributed <a href="https://www.modernghana.com/news/1238442/accusations-of-funding-militias-in-south-kivu.html">hundreds of thousands</a> of US dollars to displaced families in <a href="https://www.jpolrisk.com/the-banyamulenge-genocide-in-the-democratic-republic-of-congo-on-the-interplay-of-minority-groups-discrimination-and-humanitarian-assistance-failure/">South Kivu</a>. This is not an <a href="https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/57e92e4d4.pdf">uncommon practice</a> across other groups in the country. </p>
<p>The peace association <a href="https://www.modernghana.com/news/1238442/accusations-of-funding-militias-in-south-kivu.html">asserts</a> it does not actively raise money for Twirwaneho, but its leadership advocates for fighting to reclaim the homeland. This implicitly encourages support. </p>
<p>Many Banyamulenge do not consider any funds sent as support for an armed group. Rather, it is seen as mobilisation for the survival of the community. </p>
<h2>What’s the end game?</h2>
<p>What the Twirwaneho want is a complex question. Their <a href="https://twitter.com/twirwaneho">social media</a> posts broadcast goals of Banyamulenge peace and security in Congo. Yet, violence in the DRC is <a href="https://theconversation.com/drc-violence-has-many-causes-the-uns-narrow-focus-on-ethnicity-wont-help-end-conflict-208774">not a simple ethnic conflict</a>. Although many Banyamulenge support the group, they are divided on how its goals are to be accomplished.</p>
<p>It is easy to see how a diaspora is willing to support the survival of their community. However, armed groups typically result in continued violence and military competition: rebels fight for material gains that do not translate into increased security for civilians.</p>
<p><em>This piece was written in collaboration with researchers at the <a href="https://gecshceruki.org/">Conflict and Human Security Research Group</a> (GEC-SH/CERUKI).</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211539/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher P. Davey is affiliated with Clark University and Education for Global Peace, and works for Binghamton University SUNY.</span></em></p>Central to the DRC’s politics is a broken relationship between the seat of government in Kinshasa and underrepresented groups in the eastern region.Christopher P. Davey, Visiting Assistant Professor, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093192023-08-10T12:42:23Z2023-08-10T12:42:23ZSan Jose and the reemergence of the donut city<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537435/original/file-20230714-21-id7lc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3982%2C3000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">American downtowns were facing headwinds even before the pandemic began.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SanJoseDowntownMural.jpg">Mark Davidson</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The specter of downtown decline is again haunting American cities. </p>
<p>After many decades of reinvestment and repopulation, some American downtowns are now <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/03/domestic-migration-trends-shifted.html">showing signs of hollowing out again</a>. </p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic certainly bears some of the blame. </p>
<p>The widespread adoption of remote and hybrid work schedules has drained commercial offices and caused tenants to terminate leases. In many downtowns, office occupancy is at <a href="https://www.kastle.com/safety-wellness/getting-america-back-to-work/">50% pre-pandemic</a> levels. Ripple effects include <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/food/2022/06/21/covid-restaurant-closures/">shrinking lunchtime crowds</a>, slumping retail sales and a drop-off of public transit ridership. For example, New York City’s subway is at <a href="https://www.apta.com/research-technical-resources/transit-statistics/ridership-report/">65% of pre-pandemic ridership</a> as of early 2023.</p>
<p>I study <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cico.12449">how urban governance challenges shape city budgets</a>, so I’m aware of how these pandemic-related changes are making long-term urban problems worse at a time many cities are <a href="https://www.route-fifty.com/finance/2023/05/cities-stare-down-huge-budget-gaps/386139/">dealing with strained budgets</a>. </p>
<h2>Pre- and post-pandemic urbanism</h2>
<p>Tightening city government finances and growing service demands are threatening to produce Donut City 2.0. A donut city is <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w28876">defined by out-migration</a>, with the city center losing residents and businesses to the suburbs. </p>
<p>This is not a rerun of hollowing out experienced in many <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/227170">U.S. cities in the 1960s</a>. The usual culprits of economic restructuring, racial tensions, shifting consumer preferences and government inefficiency are all still involved, but these forces are now manifest in new ways.</p>
<p>After the financial crisis that began <a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-and-its-aftermath">the Great Recession in 2007</a>, cities got spooked. When housing markets collapsed and stock markets sank, cities found themselves running out of money. Many of them, like Chicago and Memphis, siphoned revenues into reserves and made recessionary <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2020.1858886">budget cuts permanent</a>. Some cities, like Dallas and Portland, have also had to face up to their huge <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2022/07/07/states-unfunded-pension-liabilities-persist-as-major-long-term-challenge">unfunded pension liabilities</a>. Servicing debts and shoring up finances has often been prioritized over providing services and building infrastructure.</p>
<p>This post-Great Recession restructuring has now run headlong into the post-pandemic economy.</p>
<p>Exactly what this collision looks like varies from one municipality to the next, but some broad trends are emerging. Front and center is a growing demand for city services. Since 2020, this demand has been slaked by the federal government’s pandemic relief money, but now these funds are <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/coronavirus/assistance-for-state-local-and-tribal-governments">running out</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541097/original/file-20230803-15-adaknt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A young person rides a scooter past a shuttered store displaying the sign " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541097/original/file-20230803-15-adaknt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541097/original/file-20230803-15-adaknt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541097/original/file-20230803-15-adaknt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541097/original/file-20230803-15-adaknt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541097/original/file-20230803-15-adaknt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541097/original/file-20230803-15-adaknt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541097/original/file-20230803-15-adaknt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A tight budget means San Jose has fewer dollars to put toward reinvestment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/hank-cocas-downtown-furniture-slated-for-redevelopment-news-photo/1240400239?adppopup=true">Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A growing demand</h2>
<p>What kind of services are needed? Here are a few examples.</p>
<p>According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, nationwide homelessness numbers have been <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/pdf/2016-AHAR-Part-2.pdf">trending upward since 2016</a>. In 2022, a post-pandemic spike left this number just shy of <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/pdf/2022-AHAR-Part-1.pdf">600,000 people</a>, up 50,000 in six years. </p>
<p>The demand for law enforcement is also growing. <a href="https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/">World Bank data</a> shows that U.S. crime rates began trending upward in 2014. This trend again accelerated during the pandemic. New York City’s 2021-22 spike in crime made <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gun-crime-soars-as-police-retreat-in-americas-cities-l26dbss9l">headlines globally</a>. Although crime rates have now abated in most U.S. cities, local governments are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/10/31/violent-crime-is-a-key-midterm-voting-issue-but-what-does-the-data-say/">dealing with a public perception that their cities are less safe</a>. Hiring remains <a href="https://www.policeforum.org/staffing2023">challenging</a>.</p>
<h2>Donut amid shimmering silicon</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541583/original/file-20230807-28322-lk2qu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of California, showing San Jose just south of San Francisco" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541583/original/file-20230807-28322-lk2qu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541583/original/file-20230807-28322-lk2qu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541583/original/file-20230807-28322-lk2qu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541583/original/file-20230807-28322-lk2qu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541583/original/file-20230807-28322-lk2qu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541583/original/file-20230807-28322-lk2qu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541583/original/file-20230807-28322-lk2qu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=730&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">San Jose is located about 50 miles southeast of San Francisco.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/roads-and-national-park-vector-map-of-the-us-royalty-free-illustration/1307750212">Rainer Lesniewski/iStock via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>San Jose, California, a city of <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/sanjosecitycalifornia/PST045222">1 million</a>, does not conjure archetypal images of urban decline. It is not home to redundant smokestacks and empty houses. It is a city that is home to thousands of <a href="https://www.sanjose.org/attraction/silicon-valley-tech-tours">global technology firms</a> and suffers from <a href="https://www.point2homes.com/news/us-real-estate-news/rank-us-cities-share-of-luxury-homes-for-sale.html">vastly inflated housing costs</a>. And yet, despite its wealth, it is struggling with the pressures of Donut City 2.0.</p>
<p>As may seem fitting for the home of Zoom’s headquarters, San Jose has seen some of the lowest rates of return to office working. The city’s return rate is just 44% vs. national averages that are <a href="https://www.kastle.com/the-data-science-behind-theback-to-work-barometer/">at about 50%</a>. PayPal, Roku, Western Digital and X – formerly known as Twitter – have also laid off what amounts to thousands of San Jose-based employees, putting further pressure on <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/tech/article/san-jose-s-paypal-to-cut-2-000-jobs-as-bay-area-17754716.php">commercial occupancy rates</a>. </p>
<p>This does not make San Jose unique. What it does do is put more pressure on city revenues.</p>
<h2>Drop-off in investment</h2>
<p>When cities see declines in commercial occupancy, they get hit in multiple ways. </p>
<p>One way is that it makes future investment less likely. San Jose’s economic growth hinges on <a href="https://realestate.withgoogle.com/sanjose/">Google’s planned expansion</a> and an <a href="https://www.vta.org/projects/bart-sv">in-progress connection</a> to the regional BART transit system. Given all that empty office space and large drop-offs in BART ridership, these plans now face a more uncertain future. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541585/original/file-20230807-2559-4jjun1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman stands on an otherwise empty subway station." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541585/original/file-20230807-2559-4jjun1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541585/original/file-20230807-2559-4jjun1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541585/original/file-20230807-2559-4jjun1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541585/original/file-20230807-2559-4jjun1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541585/original/file-20230807-2559-4jjun1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541585/original/file-20230807-2559-4jjun1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541585/original/file-20230807-2559-4jjun1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fewer riders means less revenue for the Bay Area Rapid Transit, cooling plans for expanding the system to San Jose.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Transit%20Financial%20Woes/0eae75429d1e4dfa84ecefc26454396e?Query=Bay%20Area%20Rapid%20Transit&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=477&currentItemNo=1">AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>San Jose has a US$1.2B <a href="https://www.sanjoseca.gov/your-government/departments-offices/office-of-the-city-manager/budget/budget-documents">general fund annual budget</a>. Business taxes represent a relatively small slice – 6%, or $70 million – of its total revenues. For comparison, property taxes are 32% and sales taxes are 23%. This means San Jose is less sensitive to commercial decline than other cities. And yet, small budget changes can have large consequences. </p>
<p>San Jose entered the pandemic with significant, if not unique, challenges. In 2011, San Jose acknowledged that it <a href="https://sanjosespotlight.com/can-san-jose-reduce-its-pension-debt-by-issuing-bonds/#:%7E:text=As%20of%20June%2030%2C%20San,federated%20plan%20was%2052%25%20funded">owed retirees $3 billion more</a> than it held in assets. An acrimonious fight between the city and labor unions followed. The <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2015/07/15/san-jose-unions-reach-pension-settlement/">eventual settlement</a> set San Jose on a path to make good on its pension promises, but correcting for years of skipped and inadequate payments will squeeze the city’s budget for decades to come.</p>
<p>This squeezing has already been felt. San Jose cut its payroll during the Great Recession and these cutbacks have not been restored. The city currently has nearly <a href="https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/san-jose-city-employees-prepare-for-possible-strike/">860 vacant staff positions</a>, unfilled because of a lack of funding.</p>
<p>This understaffing exacerbates other problems. Like other California cities, such as San Francisco, San Jose is experiencing a major homelessness crisis. In 2023, the city spent $116 million trying to alleviate the problem by providing counseling services and investing in affordable housing. Yet San Jose’s unhoused population <a href="https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/6340-people-hundreds-of-youth-are-homeless-in-san-jose-annual-census-finds/">grew to 6,340</a> by the spring of 2023 – up from an <a href="https://www.sanjoseca.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/38890/636987964835130000">estimated 4,350</a> in 2017.</p>
<p>Debate over the city’s 2023-24 budget revolved around how best to solve growing homelessness. The new mayor, Matt Mahan, succeeded in diverting some long-term affordable housing dollars to more <a href="https://sanjosespotlight.com/san-jose-passes-budget-mayors-housing-plan-fails/">immediate housing needs</a>, but the overwhelming consensus was that this influx of cash would not be enough to solve San Jose’s homelessness problem. </p>
<p>New funds will be hard to find. Raising either property or sales taxes without incurring negative consequences, like further declines in local consumer spending and sales tax revenue, is unlikely. </p>
<p>In 2020, the city was successful in introduced a new property transfer tax to <a href="https://www.sanjoseca.gov/your-government/departments-offices/housing/resource-library/housing-investment-plans-and-policy/measure-e-real-property-transfer-tax">address housing problems</a>, making an additional tax a hard sell. So, the city is left moving around expenditures within a largely constrained budget.</p>
<h2>Multiple stressors</h2>
<p>San Jose is not alone in facing this conundrum. </p>
<p>Cities across the country are experiencing inflexible expenditures and highly constrained revenues. Without residents’ demands being met, the prospects of hollowing out increase. Budget projections look bleak in many cities, with notable cases including large metros such as <a href="https://news.wttw.com/2023/04/18/chicago-faces-85m-budget-shortfall-2024-says-lightfoot-while-defending-her-financial">Chicago</a>, <a href="https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/city-of-houston/2023/07/31/457387/houston-will-face-a-budget-crisis-by-2025-unless-it-cuts-spending-next-year-city-controller-says/">Houston</a>, <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/s-f-faces-bigger-deficit-even-months-ago-17867788.php">San Francisco</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/19/opinion/new-york-city-budget-cut-eric-adams.html">New York City</a>. </p>
<p>The outlook will largely depend on the reaction of residents and businesses. In 2022, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that San Jose had <a href="https://sanjosespotlight.com/san-jose-shrinks-in-population-and-desirability/">lost 42,000 residents</a>, the city’s population declining 4.1% since 2020.</p>
<p>It’s not yet clear how important or uniform this trend will become. What we do know is that <a href="https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/">the federal</a> and <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2022/12/16/nine-states-began-the-pandemic-with-long-term-deficits">many state governments</a> have their own budget issues and will therefore not be moving in with a fix.</p>
<p>Unlike 50 years ago, cities are now more entrepreneurial, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2043820619890438">aggressively competing against each other</a> for residents, businesses and state and federal funds. Stemming decline will involve getting creative with limited financial resources. For those cities that lose out, the subsequent struggle for survival could mirror the worst of 20th century urban decline.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209319/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Davidson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Post-pandemic pressures are compounding stresses cities were already facing, leading to the hollowing out of some American cities.Mark Davidson, Professor of Geography, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2057232023-08-07T13:03:29Z2023-08-07T13:03:29ZWhat’s behind our enduring fascination with wives and mothers who kill?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540540/original/file-20230801-19-4zkxdx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C22%2C2991%2C2029&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A family photo of Andrea Yates, her husband and four of their five children. Yates killed all five by drowning them in a bathtub in 2001.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-undated-family-photo-shows-four-of-the-five-children-news-photo/1607982?adppopup=true">Photo Courtesy of Yates Family/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In March 2023, a Utah woman named Kouri Richins published a children’s book titled “<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/123277319">Are You With Me?</a>” which she characterized as an effort to help her three young sons process the loss of their father, who had died suddenly the previous year. Presenting herself as a concerned mother and grieving widow, she was interviewed on “<a href="https://www.abc4.com/gtu/a-childrens-book-to-aid-in-coping-with-grief/">Good Things Utah</a>” in April 2023.</p>
<p>A few weeks later, on May 8, 2023, Richins was arrested and charged with killing her husband, Eric.</p>
<p>An autopsy showed that the 39-year-old man died of a massive fentanyl overdose. Since Eric had no history of drug abuse, his family found the circumstances suspicious. In the months before his death, Eric confided in his business partner that on several occasions – after being served a drink or meal by his wife, including on Valentine’s Day – he had become violently ill. Utah’s <a href="https://www.parkrecord.com/news/prosecutors-provide-more-information-about-alleged-marital-troubles-between-kamas-couple/">Park Record reported</a> that he had mentioned to friends and family that if anything were to happen to him, Kouri would be the likely culprit.</p>
<p>In August 2023, as I write this, the Richins’ housekeeper <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/07/07/housekeeper-admits-selling-kouri-richins-fentanyl-affidavit/">has confessed</a> to providing the fentanyl that killed Eric, and the case is mired in multiple lawsuits, including one in which <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/2023/06/28/sister-eric-richins-sues-kouri/">the victim’s sister accuses</a> Kouri of “enacting a horrific endgame to steal money from her husband, orchestrate his death and profit from it.” Meanwhile, Kouri Richins refutes these charges and has filed her own <a href="https://kutv.com/news/local/utah-woman-accused-of-husbands-murder-faces-civil-case-over-property-finances">civil suit</a> “seeking not only half of the marital residence but also her late husband’s business, which is valued at approximately $4 million.” She has been <a href="https://kutv.com/news/local/judge-denies-kouri-richins-bail-request-due-to-severity-of-charges-potential-penalties-eric-richins-kamas-book-author-fentanyl-summit-county-court">denied bail</a> and is currently awaiting trial – an event destined to become a media spectacle.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/njXQz82S9UI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Inside Edition’ reports on the arrest of Kouri Richins.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Whether or not it’s true that “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2007/10/16/15244466/love-and-hate-a-tolstoy-family-tale">each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way</a>,” as Leo Tolstoy famously wrote, other people’s domestic misery seems to be a constant source of interest. </p>
<p>What lies behind the public’s fascination with familial trauma, especially when it turns deadly? And what occluded anxieties or longings do people confront or exorcise as they consume these stories of mayhem and murder?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/20/true-crime-podcasts-are-popular-in-the-us-particularly-among-women-and-those-with-less-formal-education/">The interest in true-crime podcasts</a>, series and documentaries is nothing new. The public appetite for easily accessible portraits of real-life murders stretches back to the early days of print, when they were repackaged and sold as ballads, domestic tragedies and lurid penny pamphlets.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/961f96e82665b4b9a540742fafcf3ca5/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=51922&diss=y">My research</a> as a scholar of 16th- and 17th-century English literature is largely focused on popular representations of domestic crime. I’m often struck by the resonance between these historical portrayals and the way such incidents are reported today.</p>
<p>While the medium has changed, the framing of these stories has remained strikingly consistent. The same queasy combination of sensationalist titillation and pious condemnation found in 16th- and 17th-century media appears in today’s news coverage of domestic murders – and it shines a light on enduring cultural anxieties. </p>
<h2>‘Sleeping in a serpent’s bed’</h2>
<p>The Richins case – with its themes of marital distrust, betrayal and conflicting interests – echoes a 16th-century murder so scandalous that it was reported in historical chronicles and popular pamphlets alike. It also inspired the Elizabethan domestic tragedy “<a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/43440/43440-h/43440-h.htm">Arden of Faversham</a>” and at least <a href="https://ebba.english.ucsb.edu/printballad.php?i=rox_album_3_156-157_2448x2448.jpg">one ballad</a>. </p>
<p>The crime occurred on Valentine’s Day 1551, when <a href="https://blog.pshares.org/alice-arden-of-faversham-and-womens-interest-in-true-crime/">Alice Arden</a> conspired with her lover and some hired assassins to kill her husband, Thomas, at his own dinner table. </p>
<p>The historical records and the play depict a woman who places desire above duty, determined to kill her husband and replace him with her paramour, who was a servant in her stepfather’s household – a step down the social ladder that added insult to injury.</p>
<p>That the murder of a middle-class suburban bureaucrat rated inclusion in official sources like “<a href="https://english.nsms.ox.ac.uk/Holinshed/">Holinshed’s Chronicles of England, Scotland and Ireland</a>” and the “<a href="https://www.exclassics.com/newgate/ng4.htm">Newgate Calendar</a>” – and was still inspiring fresh interpretations decades later – suggests an appeal beyond the merely salacious. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Crude drawing of man being strangled with a cloth at a table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540532/original/file-20230801-19-wj7vfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540532/original/file-20230801-19-wj7vfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540532/original/file-20230801-19-wj7vfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540532/original/file-20230801-19-wj7vfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540532/original/file-20230801-19-wj7vfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540532/original/file-20230801-19-wj7vfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540532/original/file-20230801-19-wj7vfp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An undated print depicts the murder of Thomas Arden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://from.ncl.ac.uk/hubfs/Ardens_Murder.png">Newcastle University</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 16th-century England, where the majority of adults <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=DrMyGQGmwmoC&q=adventure+of+marriage#v=snippet&q=adventure%20of%20marriage&f=false">were married</a>, women effectively became their husbands’ legal “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coverture">subjects</a>” upon marriage. This meant that a wife who killed her spouse was guilty not only of murder but of petit, or “petty,” treason, a crime against the state punishable by burning. <a href="https://brill.com/display/book/9789004400696/BP000015.xml?language=en">As I have argued elsewhere</a>, the idea of violent marital insurrection posed a frightening challenge to patriarchal notions of a man’s home as his castle. </p>
<p>But cases of female violence were – <a href="https://www.womensaid.org.uk/information-support/what-is-domestic-abuse/domestic-abuse-is-a-gendered-crime/">as now</a> – comparatively rare: The figure of the murderous wife wielded far more power in the imagination than in reality. </p>
<p>As the unmarried Elizabeth I’s long reign drew to its close, fears about domestic partners gone wild indicated broader fears about the family as a “<a href="https://internetshakespeare.uvic.ca/doc/CleaverGodly_M/index.html">little commonwealth</a>” or microcosmic state – and the need to reinforce the status quo in politically uncertain times.</p>
<p>In life and onstage, Alice Arden was the stuff of proto-feminist fantasy and masculine nightmare, and early modern plays, pamphlets and ballads sought to defuse the rogue woman’s perceived menace in the way they presented the scandal. </p>
<p><a href="http://elizabethandrama.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Arden-of-Feversham-Annotated.pdf">In the play</a>, Alice’s lover, Moseby, notes that “‘tis fearful sleeping in a serpent’s bed,” since when she has “supplanted Arden for my sake” she might “extirpen me to plant another.” </p>
<p>These suspicions find an echo in Eric Richins’ <a href="https://meaww.com/eric-richins-husband-allegedly-poisoned-by-author-wife-kouri-richins-believed-she-was-unfaithful">fears</a> about his wife’s intentions, and in some media portrayals of her as a <a href="https://meaww.com/kouri-richins-utah-woman-who-killed-husband-believed-she-would-inherit-3-6-m-until-he-changed-will">thwarted gold digger</a>.</p>
<h2>‘Like a fierce and bloody Medea’</h2>
<p>If a homicidal wife was a terrifying prospect, a murderous mother presented an entirely different level of horror. </p>
<p>The anonymous 1616 pamphlet “<a href="https://www.executedtoday.com/2015/05/18/1616-margaret-vincent-pitilesse-mother/#:%7E:text=A%20pitiless%20mother%2C%20that%20most,Vincent%20of%20the%20same%20town.">A Pittilesse Mother That at One Time Murdered Two of Her Own Children at Acton, etc.</a>” tells the story of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/medieval-and-early-modern-murder/monstrous-unmaking-maternal-infanticide-and-female-agency-in-early-modern-england/664BA2D9B855631299EF057D94BDB25C">Margaret Vincent</a>, who strangled and killed her two young children in an attempt to save their souls when her husband refused to convert to Catholicism. (She later repented, saying she had been “converted to a blind belief of bewitching heresy.”)</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540533/original/file-20230801-18384-iitsai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Crude drawing of woman murdering two little children on a bed while a demon watches." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540533/original/file-20230801-18384-iitsai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540533/original/file-20230801-18384-iitsai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=830&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540533/original/file-20230801-18384-iitsai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=830&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540533/original/file-20230801-18384-iitsai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=830&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540533/original/file-20230801-18384-iitsai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1043&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540533/original/file-20230801-18384-iitsai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1043&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540533/original/file-20230801-18384-iitsai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1043&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘A Pittilesse Mother’ tells the story of Margaret Vincent’s murder of her two children.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://jenikirbyhistory.getarchive.net/media/strangling-from-a-pittilesse-mother-that-most-unnaturally-at-one-time-murthered-eb67ac">British Library</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There are many parallels in the stories of Vincent and an evangelical Christian named <a href="https://time.com/4375398/andrea-yates-15-years-drown-children/">Andrea Yates</a>, who in 2001 drowned her five children in the bathtub of their Texas home, believing she would send their souls to heaven and drive Satan from the world. In March 2002, Yates was sentenced to life in prison, but a 2006 appeal found her not guilty by reason of insanity. She now resides in a mental health facility from which <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/u-s-woman-who-drowned-children-refuses-release-from-psychiatric-hospital-every-year">she routinely refuses</a> to apply for release.</p>
<p>Neither Vincent nor Yates had been involved in any previous crimes or scandals, but both had exhibited signs of spiritual or mental instability. Vincent had “disobediently” insisted her family become Roman Catholics; Yates had <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Yates#:%7E:text=Yates%20stopped%20taking%20Haldol%20in,feverishly%2C%20and%20stopped%20feeding%20Mary.">stopped taking the medication</a> prescribed for her postpartum depression and later psychosis without her doctor’s approval. Both women reportedly planned their children’s murders carefully, waited until their husbands were away from home to commit them, invoked diabolical forces to explain their actions, and initially claimed to feel no remorse. </p>
<p>The correlation between these historically distant murders is disturbing and fascinating, not least because both narratives feature conventionally “good,” married, middle-class mothers. Yet both were excoriated in contemporary media as <a href="https://nypost.com/2001/06/26/the-murdering-mom-the-prison-of-self/">monsters</a>: guilty of <a href="https://www.executedtoday.com/2015/05/18/1616-margaret-vincent-pitilesse-mother/">crimes against nature</a>, their husbands and their offspring.</p>
<p>Fast-forward to Jan. 24, 2023, when <a href="https://www.wcvb.com/article/lindsay-clancy-duxbury-mother-children-killed-committed-6-months/43852054">Lindsay Clancy</a> sent her husband, Patrick, on an errand and, like Margaret Vincent, strangled her three children before attempting suicide.</p>
<p>When Patrick Clancy returned to their home in Duxbury, Massachusetts, he found Lindsay on the lawn with major injuries, suffered in a jump from a second-story window. Inside, his children – ages 5 years, 3 years and 8 months – were unconscious. The two oldest were pronounced dead at the scene, <a href="https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/as-community-mourns-duxbury-children-killed-questions-circle-about-maternal-mental-health/2956568/">while the youngest survived for several days</a>. </p>
<p>As more details of the case became known, a picture emerged of a doting mother and nurse midwife who often shared family photos and anecdotes on social media. After her youngest child’s birth, these posts included references to depression, anxiety and her ongoing attempts to find relief via therapy and medication. </p>
<p><a href="https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/unlike-any-other-type-of-homicide-how-lindsay-clancy-mirrors-andrea-yates-case/">The inevitable comparisons</a> to the 2001 Yates murders were exacerbated by her lawyer’s revelation that Clancy had been prescribed more than a dozen medications in recent weeks, and by her own claim – as reported during her Feb. 7, 2023, <a href="https://www.wbur.org/news/2023/02/07/lindsay-clancy-duxbury-arraignment">arraignment</a> – that she had “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/health/lindsay-clancy-child-murder-charges-massachusetts.html">heard a man’s voice, telling her to kill the kids and kill herself because it was her last chance</a>.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Split screen of judge sitting at his dais and woman wearing facemask lying in a hospital bed." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540538/original/file-20230801-19-3rdp00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540538/original/file-20230801-19-3rdp00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540538/original/file-20230801-19-3rdp00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540538/original/file-20230801-19-3rdp00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540538/original/file-20230801-19-3rdp00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540538/original/file-20230801-19-3rdp00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540538/original/file-20230801-19-3rdp00.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lindsay Clancy appeared at her arraignment over Zoom while still in the hospital recovering from self-inflicted injuries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/lindsay-clancy-appeared-at-her-plymouth-district-court-news-photo/1246891610?adppopup=true">David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>The prosecution presented Clancy as a coldblooded, calculating murderer. The defense countered with a portrait of a woman suffering from serious mental illness with inadequate treatment. <a href="https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/duxbury-tragedy-read-patrick-clancys-full-statement-on-his-wife-deaths-of-3-kids/2957737/">Patrick Clancy</a> has argued that his wife deserves compassion rather than condemnation. </p>
<p>As the familiar lines are drawn on the battlefield of public opinion, the sense of déjà vu is palpable. Is Lindsay Clancy a latter-day <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea">Medea</a>, the vengeful child killer of Greek mythology, or an overwhelmed and poorly supported woman struggling with a serious illness? As of this writing, <a href="https://www.boston25news.com/news/local/lindsay-clancy-duxbury-mother-accused-murdering-her-kids-remain-committed-6-months/PM7XPI3MCVFINO65YCCAGBSCNQ/">Clancy is committed</a> to Tewksbury State Hospital until November 2023, at which point future legal proceedings will be assessed.</p>
<p>These events are unquestionably horrific, but the passage of two decades may have wrought some changes in the public’s response. While Clancy has been reviled in some quarters as a coldblooded killer – <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@aprnbeauty_81/video/7198259011211365637">particularly on social media</a> – the murders have also sparked a discussion about <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/science/annals-of-medicine/what-we-still-dont-understand-about-postpartum-psychosis#:%7E:text=In%20November%2C%20Clancy%2C%20who%20is,with%20Ativan%2C%20a%20benzodiazepine%2C%20but">postpartum mental health</a>, suggesting a willingness to better understand this complicated topic.</p>
<h2>A queasy sort of comfort</h2>
<p>Tales of domestic murder expose and underscore fears about society’s most fundamental institutions: home, family and community. The media in every period are extremely skilled at weaponizing – and capitalizing on – worries about the family’s capacity to provide a safe haven in a turbulent world.</p>
<p>In early modern England, highly gendered ideas about the home as a reflection of the state politicized anxieties about order, stability and the family as a patriarchal institution. Then as now, it was a frightening – yet compelling – prospect that threats to a family’s very survival might be hiding in the place people should feel safest. </p>
<p>Perhaps the ongoing fascination with dysfunctional, broken homes <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-it-feel-good-to-see-someone-fail-107349">is based in schadenfreude</a>, and the comforting realization that as troubled as our own families may be, we have not taken violent action against them. </p>
<p>Like the repentant gallows speeches recounted in ballads, or the assurance in “A Pittilesse Mother” that Margaret Vincent “earnestly repented the deed,” the containment and punishment of those who disrupt this bedrock institution offer reassurance that they are anomalies. (I could never do that; you could never do that.)</p>
<p>Or the appeal may lie in the idea that any of us might, in fact, be capable of such things. </p>
<p>Perhaps in choosing to be disturbed, entertained and ultimately comforted by narratives about domestic stability turned to chaos, we find a way to confront, if only obliquely, our most primal fears about the institutions we trust, the people we love – and our own capacity to destroy them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205723/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dianne Berg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The framing of these stories of murder and mayhem have remained remarkably consistent since the invention of the printing press – and may reveal our own hidden fears and desires.Dianne Berg, Visiting Assistant Professor of English, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060562023-06-16T18:31:32Z2023-06-16T18:31:32ZJuneteenth offers new ways to teach about slavery, Black perseverance and American history<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532406/original/file-20230616-23-carmc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=27%2C126%2C5982%2C3874&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Freedom is a key concept to study.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/school-children-writing-in-books-with-pencils-in-royalty-free-image/1049282154?phrase=black+teacher+classroom&adppopup=true">Klaus Vedfelt via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Whenever I tell high school students in classes I visit that I appreciated learning about slavery as a child growing up in the Caribbean, they often look confused.</p>
<p>Why, they ask, did I like learning about slavery given that it was so horrible and harsh? How could I value being taught about something that caused so much hurt and harm?</p>
<p>That’s when I tell them that my teachers in St. Thomas – and <a href="https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED266055">my fourth grade history textbook</a> – didn’t focus just on the harsh conditions of slavery. Rather, they also focused on Black freedom fighters, such as Moses Gottlieb, perhaps better known as General Buddhoe, who is <a href="http://www.virginislandsdailynews.com/opinion/did-buddhoe-lead-the-revolt-known-as-emancipation-day-we-may-never-know/article_d33e4bfb-828f-56ce-9c63-82a9a6d4408e.html">credited with leading a nonviolent revolt</a> that led to the abolishment of slavery in the Danish-ruled West Indies on July 3, 1848. The historic date is now <a href="https://www.officeholidays.com/holidays/us-virgin-islands/vi-emancipation-day">observed</a> and <a href="https://stthomassource.com/content/2018/07/04/st-thomas-emancipation-day-honoring-tradition-and-heroes/">celebrated</a> in the United States Virgin Islands as <a href="https://nationaltoday.com/v-i-emancipation-day/">Emancipation Day</a>.</p>
<p>The holiday – and the lessons I learned about it – instilled in me a sense of cultural pride and gave me a better appreciation for the sacrifices that Black people made for freedom. It also encouraged me to always push on when faced with challenges.</p>
<p>The reason I bring this up is because I believe Juneteenth – which commemorates the date in 1865 when Union troops <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/juneteenth-day-celebration.html">notified the last remaining slaves in Texas that they were free</a> – holds similar promise for Black students throughout the United States. </p>
<p>Students often tell me that they’re not learning much about slavery beyond the suffering and harsh conditions that it involved. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=bzvpMh4AAAAJ&hl=en">historian</a> who specializes in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=bzvpMh4AAAAJ&citation_for_view=bzvpMh4AAAAJ:u5HHmVD_uO8C">how slavery is taught in K-12 classrooms</a>, I believe there are several ways educators can incorporate Juneteenth into their instruction that will give students a broader understanding of how Black people resisted slavery and persevered in spite of it. Below are just a few.</p>
<h2>Start early, but keep it positive</h2>
<p>As early childhood experts assembled by the National Museum of African American History point out in a <a href="https://nmaahc.si.edu/sites/default/files/files/nmaahc_kids_-_juneteenth_resource.pdf">guide they created to help develop lessons about Juneteenth</a>, children in the U.S. will probably hear about slavery by age 5. But lessons about slavery at that age should avoid the pain and trauma of slavery. Instead, the lessons should celebrate and teach stories of Black culture, leadership, inventions, beauty and accomplishments. This, the authors of the guide say, will better equip children to later hear about, understand and emotionally process the terrible truths about slavery.</p>
<p>“Juneteenth events can be wonderful opportunities to introduce the concepts of slavery with a focus on resilience and within an environment of love, trust, and joy,” the guide states.</p>
<h2>Focus on Black resistance</h2>
<p>Many Juneteeth celebrations not only commemorate the end of slavery, but they also honor the generations of Black men and women who have fought to end slavery and for racial justice. As <a href="https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/opinion-black-history-is-about-more-than-oppression/2021/01">Black history education professor LaGarett King puts it</a>, Black people have always “acted, made their own decisions based on their interests, and fought back against oppressive structures.” Stressing this can help students to see that although Black people were victimized by slavery, they were not just helpless victims. </p>
<p>Juneteenth provides opportunities to acknowledge and examine the legacies of Black freedom fighters during the time of slavery. These freedom fighters include – but are not necessarily limited to – <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aia/part4/4p1539.html">Frederick Douglass</a>, <a href="https://www.lva.virginia.gov/exhibits/deathliberty/gabriel/index.htm">Gabriel Prosser</a>, <a href="https://www.nps.gov/people/denmark-vesey.htm">Denmark Vesey</a>, <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aia/part4/4p1535.html">Harriet Tubman</a>, <a href="https://nmaahc.si.edu/explore/stories/nat-turners-rebellion">Nat Turner</a> and <a href="https://www.pbs.org/thisfarbyfaith/people/sojourner_truth.html">Sojourner Truth</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532428/original/file-20230616-23-ev4t9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Black man holding a knife faces a white man holding a gun." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532428/original/file-20230616-23-ev4t9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532428/original/file-20230616-23-ev4t9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532428/original/file-20230616-23-ev4t9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532428/original/file-20230616-23-ev4t9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532428/original/file-20230616-23-ev4t9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532428/original/file-20230616-23-ev4t9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532428/original/file-20230616-23-ev4t9s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An illustration of 1831 slave revolt leader Nat Turner.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/discovery-of-nat-turner-royalty-free-illustration/1178318392?phrase=nat+turner&adppopup=true">Scan by ivan-96 via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Connect Juneteenth to current events</h2>
<p>Juneteenth can also be a way for educators to help students better understand contemporary demands for racial justice. That’s what George Patterson, a former Brooklyn middle school principal, did a few years back at the height of protests that took place under the mantra of Black Lives Matter.</p>
<p>Patterson has said he believes that when students study Juneteenth, they are “<a href="https://ny.chalkbeat.org/2020/6/18/21296042/at-our-middle-school-teaching-about-juneteenth-means-getting-creative">better equipped to understand</a> the historical underpinnings of what’s going on in the streets and to put the demands being made in context.”</p>
<p>Teachers need not wait for Juneteenth to be included in textbooks in order to draw lessons from the holiday.</p>
<p>“If it’s not in the textbook, then we need to introduce it, we need to teach it,” Odessa Pickett, a teacher at the Barack Obama Learning Academy in Markham, Illinois, <a href="https://abc7chicago.com/juneteenth-2021-lessons-school/10799306/">stated during an interview</a> about teachers infusing Juneteenth into their lessons. “We need to bring it to the forefront.”</p>
<p>Educators can make Juneteenth about so much more than the end of slavery. Teaching lessons about the holiday offers an abundance of opportunities about what it means to fight for freedom and maintain a sense of self-determination in the face of oppression.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206056/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raphael E. Rogers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many students say they aren’t learning much about slavery beyond its harsh conditions. A historian explores how Juneteenth offers opportunities to change that reality.Raphael E. Rogers, Professor of Practice in Education, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2021162023-03-20T13:04:35Z2023-03-20T13:04:35ZClimate damage is worsening faster than expected, but there’s still reason for optimism – 4 essential reads on the IPCC report<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516314/original/file-20230320-701-yvz5st.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C3000%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wildfires are becoming a greater risk in many countries as the landscape dries.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/californias-caldor-fire-moves-east-toward-lake-tahoe-as-news-photo/1234890718">Michael Nigro/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Reading the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">international climate report</a> can feel overwhelming. It describes how rising temperatures caused by increasing greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">having rapid, widespread effects</a> on the weather, climate and ecosystems in every region of the planet, and it says the risks are escalating faster than scientists expected.</p>
<p>Global temperatures are now 1.1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than at the start of the industrial era. Heat waves, storms, fires and floods are <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-climate-risks-are-rising-a-scientist-looks-at-the-dangers-her-children-will-have-to-adapt-to-from-wildfires-to-water-scarcity-177708">harming humans and ecosystems</a>. Hundreds of species have disappeared from regions as temperatures rise, and climate change is causing irreversible changes to sea ice, oceans and glaciers. In some areas, it’s becoming harder to adapt to the changes, the authors write.</p>
<p>Still, there are <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-transform-how-we-live-but-these-tech-and-policy-experts-see-reason-for-optimism-180961">reasons for optimism</a> – falling renewable energy costs are starting to transform the power sector, for example, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/revolutionary-changes-in-transportation-from-electric-vehicles-to-ride-sharing-could-slow-global-warming-if-theyre-done-right-ipcc-says-179535">the use of electric vehicles is expanding</a>. But change aren’t happening fast enough, and the window for a smooth transition is closing fast, the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/about/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> report warns. To keep global warming below 1.5 C (2.7 F), it says global greenhouse gas emissions will have to drop 60% by 2035 compared with 2019 levels. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Heat map shows how temperatures have changed and what they look like under different scenarios going foward." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516210/original/file-20230319-24-t1lhni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The extent to which current and future generations will experience a hotter world depends on choices made now and in the coming years. The scenarios show expected differences in temperature depending on how high emissions are going forward.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">IPCC sixth assessment report</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">new report</a>, released March 20, 2023, the IPCC summarizes findings from <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">a series of assessments</a> written over the past eight years and discusses how to stop the damage. In them, <a href="https://theconversation.com/234-scientists-read-14-000-research-papers-to-write-the-ipcc-climate-report-heres-what-you-need-to-know-and-why-its-a-big-deal-165587">hundreds of scientists</a> reviewed the evidence and research.</p>
<p>Here are four essential reads by co-authors of some of those reports, each providing a different snapshot of the changes underway and discussing solutions.</p>
<h2>1. More intense storms and flooding</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A line of rescue workers in bright vests and hard hats walks in waist-deep water on a flooded street, pulling a raft. Water is up to the mailbox they're passing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516311/original/file-20230320-447-zmrphc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A volunteer fire company assists with evacuation efforts following a flash flood in Helmetta, New Jersey, in August 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-new-market-volunteer-fire-company-perform-a-news-photo/1234816728">Tom Brenner / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of the most shocking natural disasters of the past few years have involved intense rainfall and flooding.</p>
<p>In Europe, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/europes-catastrophic-flooding-was-forecast-well-in-advance-what-went-so-wrong-164818">storm in 2021</a> set off landslides and sent rivers rushing through villages that had stood for centuries. In 2022, about <a href="https://theconversation.com/pakistan-floods-what-role-did-climate-change-play-189833">a third of Pakistan</a> was underwater, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-on-americas-summer-of-heat-floods-and-climate-change-welcome-to-the-new-abnormal-190636">several U.S. communities</a> were hit with extreme flash flooding.</p>
<p>The IPCC warns in the sixth assessment report that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">water cycle will continue to intensify</a> as the planet warms. That includes extreme monsoon rainfall, but also increasing drought, greater melting of mountain glaciers, decreasing snow cover and earlier snowmelt, wrote UMass-Lowell climate scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=en">Mathew Barlow</a>, a co-author of the report examining physical changes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="World maps show precipitation increasing in higher latitudes, but not everywhere." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516208/original/file-20230319-22-t1lhni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Annual average precipitation is projected to increase in many areas as the planet warms, particularly in the higher latitudes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">IPCC sixth assessment report</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“An intensifying water cycle means that both wet and dry extremes and the general variability of the water cycle will increase, although not uniformly around the globe,” Barlow wrote.</p>
<p>“Understanding this and other changes in the water cycle is important for more than preparing for disasters. Water is an essential resource for all ecosystems and human societies.” </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590">The water cycle is intensifying as the climate warms, IPCC report warns – that means more intense storms and flooding</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>2. The longer the delay, the higher the cost</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A pedicab driver looks over at an SUV making waves as both drive through knee-high water." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516282/original/file-20230320-14-7zn4fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Extreme rainfall filled streets in Dhaka, Bangladesh, in July 2020. Flooding has become common in many South Asia cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/commuters-make-their-way-through-a-water-logged-street-news-photo/1227715942">Munir Uz zaman / AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The IPCC stressed in its reports that human activities are unequivocally warming the planet and causing rapid changes in the world’s atmosphere, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-climate-report-profound-changes-are-underway-in-earths-oceans-and-ice-a-lead-author-explains-what-the-warnings-mean-165588">oceans and icy regions</a>.</p>
<p>“Countries can either <a href="https://theconversation.com/transformational-change-is-coming-to-how-people-live-on-earth-un-climate-adaptation-report-warns-which-path-will-humanity-choose-177604">plan their transformations</a>, or they can face the destructive, often chaotic transformations that will be imposed by the changing climate,” wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=sk6R5OYAAAAJ&hl=en">Edward Carr</a>, a Clark University scholar and co-author of the IPCC report focused on adaptation.</p>
<p>The longer countries wait to respond, the greater the damage and cost to contain it. One estimate from Columbia University put the <a href="https://uccrn.ei.columbia.edu/arc3.2">cost of adaptation needed just for urban areas</a> at between US$64 billion and $80 billion a year – and the cost of doing nothing at 10 times that level by mid-century.</p>
<p>“The IPCC assessment offers a stark choice,” Carr wrote. “Does humanity accept this disastrous status quo and the uncertain, unpleasant future it is leading toward, or does it grab the reins and choose a better future?”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transformational-change-is-coming-to-how-people-live-on-earth-un-climate-adaptation-report-warns-which-path-will-humanity-choose-177604">Transformational change is coming to how people live on Earth, UN climate adaptation report warns: Which path will humanity choose?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Transportation is a good place to start</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="3 EV's parked in a garage and charging." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516278/original/file-20230320-24-bejszf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electric vehicle sales have been accelerating, and new tax incentives and state zero-emissions requirements are expected to boost sales even more.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/O63S96_qn8c">Michael Fousert/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One crucial sector for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is transportation.</p>
<p>Cutting greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-companies-pledge-net-zero-emissions-to-fight-climate-change-but-what-does-that-really-mean-166547">to net-zero</a> by mid-century, a target considered necessary to keep global warming below 1.5 C, will require “<a href="https://theconversation.com/revolutionary-changes-in-transportation-from-electric-vehicles-to-ride-sharing-could-slow-global-warming-if-theyre-done-right-ipcc-says-179535">a major, rapid rethinking of how people get around globally</a>,” wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=h-2TvzUAAAAJ&hl=en">Alan Jenn</a>, a transportation scholar at the University of California Davis and co-author on the IPCC report on mitigation.</p>
<p>There are positive signs. Battery costs for electric vehicles have fallen, making them increasingly affordable. In the U.S., the 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-new-incentives-for-clean-energy-arent-enough-the-inflation-reduction-act-was-just-the-first-step-now-the-hard-work-begins-188693">Inflation Reduction Act</a> offers tax incentives that lower the costs for EV buyers and encourage companies to ramp up production. And several states are considering following California’s requirement that all new cars and light trucks be <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-californias-ambitious-new-climate-plan-could-help-speed-energy-transformation-around-the-world-197094">zero-emissions by 2035</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Charts showing falling costs and rising adoption" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516205/original/file-20230319-6904-juvspc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Costs have fallen for key forms of renewable energy and EV batteries, and adoption of these technologies is rising.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">IPCC sixth assessment report</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“Behavioral and other systemic changes will also be needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions dramatically from this sector,” Jenn wrote.</p>
<p>For example, many countries saw their transportation emissions drop during COVID-19 as more people were allowed to work from home. Bike sharing in urban areas, public transit-friendly cities and avoiding urban sprawl can help cut emissions even further. <a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-planes-are-coming-short-hop-regional-flights-could-be-running-on-batteries-in-a-few-years-190098">Aviation and shipping are more challenging</a> to decarbonize, but efforts are underway.</p>
<p>He adds, however, that it’s important to remember that the effectiveness of electrifying transportation ultimately depends on cleaning up the electricity grid.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/revolutionary-changes-in-transportation-from-electric-vehicles-to-ride-sharing-could-slow-global-warming-if-theyre-done-right-ipcc-says-179535">Revolutionary changes in transportation, from electric vehicles to ride sharing, could slow global warming – if they’re done right, IPCC says</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. Reasons for optimism</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man installs solar panels on a roof." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516285/original/file-20230320-16-r3wi40.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Solar panels have become increasingly common on homes, businesses and parking lots as prices have fallen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jack-doherty-photovoltaic-project-manager-for-revision-news-photo/825984340">Ben McCanna/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The IPCC reports discuss several other important steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including shifting energy from fossil fuels to renewable sources, making buildings more energy efficient and improving food production, as well as ways to adapt to changes that can no longer be avoided.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-climate-solutions-exist-but-humanity-has-to-break-from-the-status-quo-and-embrace-innovation-202134">There are reasons for optimism</a>, wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=GUE7UxIAAAAJ&hl=en">Robert Lempert</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pR5kLz0AAAAJ&hl=en">Elisabeth Gilmore</a>, co-authors on the IPCC’s report focused on mitigation.</p>
<p>“For example, renewable energy is now generally less expensive than fossil fuels, so a shift to clean energy can often save money,” they wrote. Electric vehicle costs are falling. Communities and infrastructure can be redesigned to better manage natural hazards such as wildfires and storms. Corporate climate risk disclosures can help investors better recognize the hazards and push those companies to build resilience and reduce their climate impact.</p>
<p>“The problem is that these solutions aren’t being deployed fast enough,” Lempert and Gilmore wrote. “In addition to pushback from industries, people’s fear of change has helped maintain the status quo.” Meeting the challenge, they said, starts with embracing innovation and change.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-climate-solutions-exist-but-humanity-has-to-break-from-the-status-quo-and-embrace-innovation-202134">IPCC report: Climate solutions exist, but humanity has to break from the status quo and embrace innovation</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202116/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
The final report in the IPCC’s sixth assessment series says countries will have to cut their greenhouse gas emissions 60% in the next 12 years to keep global warming in check.Stacy Morford, Environment + Climate EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2016032023-03-10T19:05:14Z2023-03-10T19:05:14ZWhy employment remains red hot even as the Federal Reserve tries to put job market on ice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514743/original/file-20230310-27-t7m84x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C31%2C2995%2C1962&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is strong hiring fanning the flames of inflation?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/JobsReport/913d30c6b2e64f20b9cd1eecc7a020ef/photo?Query=jobs&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=58270&currentItemNo=42">AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/10/business/jobs-report-economy-news">hot U.S. labor market</a> is showing few signs of cooling down, with the latest jobs report showing continued strong gains, particularly in service industries such as retail and hospitality. The robust employment landscape may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates more than expected later this month in a bid to further tame inflation.</em></p>
<p><em>The U.S. economy <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm">added 311,000 jobs</a> in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on March 10, 2023, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/us-payrolls-top-estimates-while-jobless-rate-rises-wages-cool?srnd=premium&sref=Hjm5biAW">higher than economists were forecasting</a>. The unemployment rate <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm">ticked up slightly to 3.6%</a>, still near the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">lowest level in over 50 years</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>To better understand what all this means and why the job market remains strong despite the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/business/economy/fed-powell-interest-rates.html">most aggressive pace of interest rate hikes</a> since the 1980s, we turned to Edouard Wemy, an <a href="https://www2.clarku.edu/faculty/facultybio.cfm?id=1080">economist at Clark University</a>.</em> </p>
<h2>What stood out for you most in the jobs report?</h2>
<p>It’s kind of strange how the labor market remains quite strong, with notable gains in labor-intensive service sectors like hospitality and leisure, health care and retail. That’s also where wage growth in February was strongest.</p>
<p>For workers, the report is good news, since it suggests if you’re looking for work you’ve got a strong chance of finding a job. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows that there are <a href="https://www.bls.gov/jlt/">almost two vacancies</a> for <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm">every unemployed worker</a>, which is pretty high compared with an <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p9aA#">average of under 0.6 vacancies</a> per jobless person before the pandemic.</p>
<p>But it’s very puzzling. Why is the job growth so strong at a time when the Fed has been aggressively raising borrowing costs to tame the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL">highest inflation since the 1980s</a>? Typically, a sudden increase in interest rates – and the Fed has raised rates 4.5 percentage points over the past year – <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/101615/what-happens-if-interest-rates-increase-too-quickly.asp">would chill the labor market</a> and send unemployment much higher. </p>
<p>I believe, as is often the case in economics, it’s a question of supply and demand. The Fed has been focused on the latter. Raising the borrowing costs consumers and businesses have to pay should reduce consumer demand for goods and services, which in turn lowers demand for workers. </p>
<p>But the Fed can’t do much about the supply side of the equation – which refers to the number of available workers in the labor market. That’s measured by the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART">participation rate</a>, which plunged at the beginning of the pandemic and still hasn’t fully recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels. This is <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300001">especially true for men</a>, who are participating in the labor market at a rate of 68%, or 1.1 percentage point below February 2020 levels – the equivalent of about 1.5 million men gone from the workforce. </p>
<p>In other words, if the reason the job market is so tight right now is the relatively low participation rate, then that explains why the Fed’s interest rate hikes are not having much of an effect. </p>
<h2>Why is the participation rate still low?</h2>
<p>Economists, me included, are trying to work that out and have some theories.</p>
<p>The pandemic caused significant disruptions to the labor market – first, lockdowns caused unemployment to soar, then trillions of dollars in government aid meant to support the economy made it easier to get by without a job – and this has resulted in structural changes that persist today. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/research-department-working-paper/2016/who-counts-as-employed-informal-work-employment-status-and-labor-market-slack.aspx#:%7E:text=Informal%20Work%2C%20Employment%20Status%2C%20and%20Labor%20Market%20Slack,-By%20Anat%20Bracha&text=According%20to%20the%20Bureau%20of,week%20prior%20to%20the%20survey.">Recent research suggests</a> part of the explanation for the lower participation rate is that more younger workers may be joining the gig economy, which isn’t fully reflected in the government’s job and participation numbers. </p>
<h2>What does this mean for Fed’s rate-hike campaign?</h2>
<p>A few weeks ago markets were expecting the Fed to lift interest rates by another quarter-point <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm">when it meets on March 21-22</a>. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-markets-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-march-testimony-2023-3">That changed</a> after Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress on March 7 that the rate-hiking campaign still “has a long way to go.” </p>
<p>After the latest jobs report showed the strength of the labor market, I agree that a half-point increase is likely. But I’m hoping the Fed isn’t going to push up rates much more. </p>
<p>If the reason for the hot jobs market is primarily a supply or structural issue, then higher rates aren’t going to have the effect the Fed seeks – and would only increase the odds of recession. So I’m hoping the Fed’s economists recognize this and adjust their strategy. </p>
<h2>What are the odds of a recession?</h2>
<p>I still don’t think a recession is likely, mainly because recent economic data, such as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/06/economy/consumers-keep-spending/index.html">solid consumer spending</a> along with the latest jobs report, have been so strong. But also I do believe the Fed will change its tune, accept inflation may be a bit higher than it hopes and slow the pace of rate hikes. </p>
<p>But if the Fed stays focused on driving inflation to near its target of 2% – from an <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">annual pace of 6.4% currently</a> – that would greatly increase the odds of a recession this year or the next.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201603/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edouard Wemy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Fed has been trying to tame employment and wages to keep inflation in check. It ain’t working.Edouard Wemy, Assistant Professor of Economics, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002212023-03-08T13:40:07Z2023-03-08T13:40:07ZSyria’s earthquake survivors struggle in a disaster made far worse by civil war, bombed-out hospitals and currency collapse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513474/original/file-20230304-14-t2k1qb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=917%2C1040%2C4546%2C2596&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Temporary shelters have been set up near neighborhoods in the Idlib province demolished by the Syria-Turkey earthquake.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/magnitude-quake-struck-early-on-february-6-as-people-slept-news-photo/1247017652?phrase=syria%20earthquake%20Idlib%20province&adppopup=true">Omar Haj Kadour/ AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After a pair of devastating earthquakes struck southern Turkey and northwestern Syria, the number of confirmed deaths continues to rise, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/earthquake-death-toll-surpasses-50000-turkey-syria-2023-02-24/">surpassing 50,000</a> as of Feb. 24. </p>
<p>The United Nations estimates that millions of people on both sides of the border have been affected, including <a href="https://www.unocha.org/story/nearly-9-million-people-syria-affected-t%C3%BCrkiye-earthquake-un-launches-400-million-funding">9 million</a> in Syria alone. Many across northwest Syria are enduring winter conditions without adequate shelter or access to food, drinking water, electricity or heating fuel. </p>
<p>Indian economist Amartya Sen famously argued that famines must be understood as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/01/arts/does-democracy-avert-famine.html">problems with human origins</a> rather than merely as natural disasters. The consequences of this disaster must likewise be understood in the larger context of the region’s politics. </p>
<p>Just as the scope of the devastation in Turkey can be partly blamed <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/turkey-rages-at-shoddy-construction-after-earthquake-proof-homes-topple-/6968593.html">on shoddy construction</a> and the political apparatus that enabled it, the consequences of the earthquake in Syria can be explained in part by the country’s devastating civil war.</p>
<p>Since it began in 2011, the war there has cost more than <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-58664859">600,000 lives</a> and displaced more than half of Syria’s population. This includes <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/syria-emergency.html">more than 6 million Syrians</a> who fled abroad as refugees and 7 million more who were displaced within Syria. </p>
<p>Among these internally displaced Syrians, 3 million are now living in the last piece of Syria still controlled by opposition forces, the region surrounding the city of Idlib in Syria’s northwest. </p>
<p>This area was both badly affected by the earthquake and arguably the region of Syria least prepared to withstand it.</p>
<h2>Unable to meet basic needs</h2>
<p>Idlib’s buildings, already badly damaged by years of bombardment by regime and allied Russian forces, had little chance of withstanding the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that occurred on Feb. 6, 2023. </p>
<p>In the immediate aftermath, rescue operations were hampered by the lack of access to search and rescue equipment. Members of the Syrian civil defense organization known as <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/white-helmets-group-ordinary-syrians-extraordinary/story?id=96971864">the White Helmets</a> were able to rescue some of those under the rubble, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/11/1156305956/earthquake-survivors-in-northern-syria-already-ravaged-by-war-are-unable-to-rece">but Syrians interviewed</a> in the media have lamented that some of those who died could have been saved <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/13/middleeast/syria-idlib-earthquake-scenes-intl/index.html">with better equipment</a> and a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/world/middleeast/syria-earthquake-aid.html">faster international response</a>. </p>
<p>Worse, for the past several years, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/world/middleeast/russia-bombing-syrian-hospitals.html">Russian</a> and <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/21/syria-several-killed-in-govt-attack-on-hospital-in-idlib">Syrian government forces</a> have repeatedly bombed <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/hospitals-deliberately-targeted-in-syrias-idlib-province-11796872">the region’s medical facilities</a>, leaving them <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2019/03/syria-unlawful-attacks-by-government-forces-hit-civilians-and-medical-facilities-in-idlib/">stretched beyond capacity</a> even before the earthquake. </p>
<p>Now those facilities have been <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/13/middleeast/syria-idlib-earthquake-scenes-intl/index.html">overwhelmed by the sheer numbers</a> of injured requiring medical attention.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321763/original/file-20200319-22602-7jt8ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C37%2C4985%2C3285&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Women walk through rubble near a demolished building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321763/original/file-20200319-22602-7jt8ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C37%2C4985%2C3285&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321763/original/file-20200319-22602-7jt8ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321763/original/file-20200319-22602-7jt8ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321763/original/file-20200319-22602-7jt8ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321763/original/file-20200319-22602-7jt8ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321763/original/file-20200319-22602-7jt8ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321763/original/file-20200319-22602-7jt8ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Women walk among airstrike-ruined buildings in Idlib, Syria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Syria-Idlib-on-the-Brink/aef79c4ef57e4369a529d3870f3e1dd2/53/0">AP Photo/Felipe Dana</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The impact of war on delivering aid</h2>
<p>Further worsening the situation, the ongoing hostilities and political wrangling have hampered the distribution of aid to the survivors.</p>
<p>Syria today is divided among several <a href="https://theconversation.com/2-reasons-and-1-disease-that-make-peace-in-syria-so-difficult-133330">warring parties</a>, including President Bashar Assad’s regime, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, and the collection of armed groups that make up the opposition to Assad’s regime.</p>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, the Syrian government – which has a history of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/oct/21/assad-regime-siphons-millions-in-aid-by-manipulating-syrias-currency">diverting international aid</a> and <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2017/11/syria-surrender-or-starve-strategy-displacing-thousands-amounts-to-crimes-against-humanity/">using starvation</a> as a weapon of war –
insisted that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/world/europe/turkey-syria-quake-un-aid.html">all international earthquake aid</a> must come through government-held territory. </p>
<p>This position is rejected by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-quake-aid-held-up-by-hts-approval-issues-says-un-spokesperson-2023-02-12/">Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,</a> the authoritarian opposition faction that controls most of Idlib province, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/13/world/middleeast/earthquake-idlib-syria-aid.html">which has refused</a> to <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/02/15/northwest-syria-aid-delays-deadly-quake-survivors">allow aid to enter the region</a> that’s sent from government-controlled areas.</p>
<p>After a week of international pressure, the Syrian government <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/02/15/northwest-syria-aid-delays-deadly-quake-survivors">authorized the opening</a> of two additional border crossings from Turkey into the affected areas for the distribution of aid by the United Nations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321765/original/file-20200319-22622-dgjwom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dozens of tents are scattered across red sand, with mountains in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321765/original/file-20200319-22622-dgjwom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321765/original/file-20200319-22622-dgjwom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321765/original/file-20200319-22622-dgjwom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321765/original/file-20200319-22622-dgjwom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321765/original/file-20200319-22622-dgjwom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321765/original/file-20200319-22622-dgjwom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321765/original/file-20200319-22622-dgjwom.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Displacement camps in Syria’s Idlib province pack people closely together, with no running water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/drone-image-taken-on-march-17-shows-a-displaced-camp-in-the-news-photo/1207507564">Omar Haj Kadour/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch, a nonprofit research and advocacy group, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/02/15/northwest-syria-aid-delays-deadly-quake-survivors">has reported that</a> aid being sent to earthquake-stricken territory held by the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/18/politics/us-helicopter-raid-isis-syria/index.html">Syrian Democratic Forces</a> has been blocked by both regime forces and the Turkish-backed armed group known as the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/syrian-national-army">Syrian National Army</a>.</p>
<p>The Syrian regime’s forces reportedly insisted that aid could go through only if half of it were handed over to them.</p>
<p>Such obstacles are not present in government-held areas, where <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/syria/2023/02/09/turkey-earthquake-uae-aid-flights-land-in-syrias-damascus-to-help-survivors/">international aid </a>has been able to arrive directly. The United States and European Union have also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/05/world/middleeast/us-syria-assad-sanctions.html">adjusted their sanctions</a> against the Syrian government for the next six months to ensure the speedy delivery of humanitarian aid. </p>
<p>But the long-standing economic consequences of the war, including the <a href="https://www.mei.edu/publications/war-hunger-scares-me-more-war-cannons-inflation-soars-syrias-economy-spirals-downward">collapse of Syria’s currency</a>, mean that all areas of Syria face a difficult recovery. </p>
<p>Syrians who have fled the country have been affected as well. Turkey hosts more than <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/world/middleeast/turkey-syria-refugees-earthquake.html">3.5 million Syrian refugees</a>, many of whom settled in the area hit by the earthquake.</p>
<p>Like the Turkish population of the region, they too have lost family and friends, homes and livelihoods. Now, some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/world/middleeast/syria-turkey-earthquake-refugees.html">also face hostility</a> from those who oppose the provision of government aid to the refugees. </p>
<h2>The task of rebuilding Syria</h2>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of the tragedy, it is understandable that the first impulse of the international community has been to dispatch search and rescue teams, food and medicine and other types of aid.</p>
<p>But in the longer term, the factors that made this earthquake so terribly devastating remain unresolved and stand to complicate any humanitarian response.
An effective response would need to take into account the human origins of the political, economic, and humanitarian conditions that resulted in civil war – not just the impact of a natural disaster. </p>
<p>One good first step would be to make permanent the two additional border crossings into the opposition-held areas, which at present have been authorized only temporarily by the Syrian government, although the regime will be reluctant to do so. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man dressed in dark clothes is surrounded by other men wearing helmets as they walk near a demolished building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513475/original/file-20230304-1853-vx3tix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513475/original/file-20230304-1853-vx3tix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513475/original/file-20230304-1853-vx3tix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513475/original/file-20230304-1853-vx3tix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513475/original/file-20230304-1853-vx3tix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513475/original/file-20230304-1853-vx3tix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513475/original/file-20230304-1853-vx3tix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Syrian President Bashar Assad, center, on Feb. 10, 2023, visits neighborhoods hit by an earthquake in Aleppo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/syrian-president-bashar-al-assad-visits-neighbourhoods-news-photo/1246979089?phrase=syria%20earthquake%20Bashar%20al-Assad&adppopup=true">AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It will be especially important to rebuild medical facilities in Idlib, where Syrians are providing supplies as best they can. </p>
<p>Both Syria and Turkey are facing a painful reconstruction process. But for Syria, the process will be further complicated by a war that is not over and whose consequences will be with Syria for years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200221/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ora Szekely does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The earthquake that struck Turkey and neighboring Syria on Feb. 6, 2023, was a natural disaster, but its consequences have been shaped by the human tragedy of the Syrian civil war.Ora Szekely, Associate Professor of Political Science, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1977702023-01-12T23:56:10Z2023-01-12T23:56:10ZInflation report is a mixed bag – an economist explains why some items are rising faster than others<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504331/original/file-20230112-69985-mrta08.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5991%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Oeuf! Egg prices are rising faster than a souffle.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/homemade-souffle-with-sugar-powder-royalty-free-image/680175794?phrase=souffle&adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Economists worried about soaring inflation got some good news to start the year: The rate of inflation has eased. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-fall-december-weekly-jobless-claims-edge-down-2023-01-12/">first report card of 2023 on consumer prices</a>, released on Jan. 12, showed that the overall cost of goods and services decelerated to an annual pace of 6.5% in December, the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL#">slowest in over a year</a> and down from 7.1% in November.</em></p>
<p><em>But there’s bad news too, especially if you are an <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111#0">egg-munching</a> <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SAS2RS#0">renter</a> fond of frequent <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEGB#0">regular haircuts</a>. In quite a few categories, the cost of living rose at an even faster pace.</em></p>
<p><em>That’s because price inflation isn’t uniform. Different products and services are affected by myriad factors. So while some prices may have fallen during December, slowing the annual rate of inflation, other items kept getting more expensive.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked Edouard Wemy – an <a href="https://www2.clarku.edu/faculty/facultybio.cfm?id=1080">economist from Clark University</a> who never sets off to work without his morning breakfast of two eggs, sunny side up – to explain how different items in the consumer price basket fared in the latest inflation report.</em></p>
<h2>Energy</h2>
<p>When you look at the detail of the latest report on the consumer price index, you’ll see that overall energy costs declined. That’s because there was a steep decline in gasoline prices – <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SETB01">down 9.4% in the month of December</a> after dropping 2% in November.</p>
<p>While that’s good news, it’s a bit puzzling. AAA was <a href="https://newsroom.aaa.com/2022/12/nearly-113-million-people-will-travel-from-december-23-to-january-2/">expecting demand for gasoline to be very high</a> over the month, which usually happens in winter. This typically pushes prices up. My best guess is either demand wasn’t as strong as expected due to fears of a coming recession or there has been an easing on the supply constraints that has contributed to pushing the price of gas up.</p>
<p>An exception to this downward energy price trend was in energy services – that is, electricity and piped gas – where prices actually ticked up. The reason is largely due to the rising cost of doing business. Utility companies and pipeline services are suffering as a result of higher labor costs and are passing on the added cost to consumers through higher prices. The <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">latest jobs report</a> shows average hourly earnings rose 4.6% in December from a year earlier.</p>
<h2>Groceries</h2>
<p>Overall food inflation slowed in December, with the cost of groceries rising just 0.2% in the month – down from 0.5% in November.</p>
<p>But there is a lot of variation in the cost of grocery items. While the price of fruits and vegetables fell in December, the cost of eggs jumped by 11.1%. That’s due to an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-nears-record-poultry-deaths-bird-flu-virus-type-complicates-fight-2022-10-18">outbreak of bird flu</a> that could well last until into the summer.</p>
<p>In addition to that, farms are seeing the same wage pressures as other businesses, which are then passed on to consumers.</p>
<h2>Housing</h2>
<p>The cost of shelter, whether from renting or owning, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAH1#0">rose 0.8% in December</a> – the biggest one-month gain since the 1980s. </p>
<p>This is understandable given the <a href="https://theconversation.com/federal-reserve-just-hiked-interest-rates-for-the-7th-time-this-year-so-why-are-mortgage-rates-coming-down-195779">numerous interest rate hikes</a> during 2022. Rising interest rates means that taking out a home loan is more costly, which in turn pushes more people into renting. Added demand on rental properties in turn pushes the prices that landlords demand up. </p>
<p>When interest rates eventually drop, it should bring the overall cost of shelter down, as it would encourage more people to buy homes. But I’m not optimistic that rates will fall until 2024, so don’t expect any downward movement on shelter in the coming months.</p>
<h2>Hospital visits</h2>
<p>The cost of going to the hospital was another category that saw a big increase. Average prices for hospital and related services jumped 1.5% in December, the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEMD#0">biggest gain since 2015</a>. </p>
<p>Again, this is due to the rising cost of doing business – that is, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-12/us-hospitals-continue-to-cope-with-elevated-labor-costs-from-the-pandemic">upward pressure on wages</a> – coupled with still-high energy costs. </p>
<h2>Used cars and trucks</h2>
<p>Another category that helped the overall pace of inflation slow down is used cars and trucks. </p>
<p>After soaring throughout the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, used car prices have been plunging in recent months. They fell 2.5% in December, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SETA02#0">putting the annual decline at 8.8%</a>. The cost of new cars also dropped in December.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edouard Wemy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A drop in gas prices helped tame inflation in December 2022. But grocery prices and housing costs continued to rise.Edouard Wemy, Assistant Professor of Economics, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1958662022-12-02T18:58:14Z2022-12-02T18:58:14ZJobs are up! Wages are up! So why am I as an economist so gloomy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/498739/original/file-20221202-15-s5b5ag.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C910%2C3515%2C2013&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Why so sad, George?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/frowning-george-on-a-weak-dollar-royalty-free-image/532453858?phrase=gloomy%20economy&adppopup=true">Chuck Savage via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In any other time, the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">jobs news that came down on Dec. 2, 2022</a>, would be reason for cheer.</p>
<p>The U.S. added 263,000 nonfarm jobs in November, leaving the unemployment rate at a low 3.7%. Moreover, wages are up – with average hourly pay jumping 5.1% compared with a year earlier.</p>
<p>So why am I not celebrating? Oh, yes: inflation.</p>
<p>The rosy employment figures come despite <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-adds-263-000-jobs-in-november-and-wages-rise-sharply-still-too-much-for-the-feds-liking-11669988407">repeated efforts by the Federal Reserve</a> to tame the job market and the wider economy in general in its fight against the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL">worst inflation in decades</a>. The Fed has now <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm">increased the base interest rate six times</a> in 2022, going from a historic low of about zero to a range of 3.75% to 4% today. Another hike is expected on Dec. 13. Yet inflation remains stubbornly high, and currently sits at an <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">annual rate of 7.7%</a>.</p>
<p>The economic rationale behind hiking rates is that it increases the cost of doing business for companies. This in turn acts as brake on the economy, which should cool inflation.</p>
<p>But that doesn’t appear to be happening. A closer dive into <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">November’s jobs report</a> reveals why.</p>
<p>It shows that the labor force participation rate – how many working-age Americans have a job or are seeking one – is stuck at just over 62.1%. As the report notes, that figure is “little changed” in November and has shown “little net change since early this year.” In fact, it is down 1.3 percentage points from pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. </p>
<p>This suggests that the heating up of the labor market is being driven by supply-side issues. That is, there aren’t enough people to fill the jobs being advertised. </p>
<p>Companies still want to hire – as the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/85a619b7-105a-44a6-88cf-ac6f89f8d47e">above-expected job gains</a> indicate. But with fewer people actively looking for work in the U.S., companies are having to go the extra yard to be attractive to job seekers. And that means offering higher wages. And higher wages – <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">they were up 5.1%</a> in November from a year earlier – contribute to spiraling inflation.</p>
<p>This puts the Fed in a very difficult position. Simply put, there is not an awful lot it can do about supply-side issues in the labor market. The main monetary tool it has to affect jobs is rate hikes, which make it more costly to do business, which should have an impact on hiring. But that only affects the demand side – that is, employers and recruitment policies.</p>
<p>So where does this leave the possibility of further rate hikes? Viewing this as an economist, it suggests that the Fed might be eyeing a base rate jump of more than 75 basis points on Dec. 13, rather than a softening of its policies as Chair Jerome Powell <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-december-signals-50-basis-points-183019709.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALGHyAx2-qnA2cr16ggUIUAR44soXOohQblDirD1gP7r_enM80cPoMfHDKUNX0a8nayZRrJAUAVjZw4SllH3exAZe4X_nayy1fTYGzO-KpNOWvxw_oedTon3XfyNSoNxyOOvlp8YI4Zg-4lFAKSbmtHMTqG6n_uIq1Nd0GxKiqga">had suggested as recently as Nov. 30</a>. Yes, this still would not ease the labor supply problem that is encouraging wage growth, but it might serve to cool the wider economy nonetheless.</p>
<p>The problem is, this would increase the chances of also pushing the U.S. economy into a recession – and it could be a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-26/the-treasury-market-s-big-recession-trade-is-gathering-momentum">pretty nasty recession</a>.</p>
<p>Wage growth still trails behind inflation, and for one reason or another people have been opting out of the labor market. The logical assumption to make is that to make up for both these factors, American families <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-01/us-savings-rate-falls-to-17-year-low-amid-relentless-inflation?sref=Hjm5biAW">have been dipping into their savings</a>. </p>
<p>Statistics back this up. The personal saving rate – that is, the chunk of income left after paying taxes and spending money – has fallen steeply, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT">down to 2.3% in December from 9.3% before the pandemic</a>. In fact, it is at its lowest rate since 2005.</p>
<p>So, yes, employment is robust. But the money being earned is eroded by soaring inflation. Meanwhile, the safety net of savings that families might need is getting smaller.</p>
<p>In short, people are not prepared for the recession that might be lurking around the corner.</p>
<p>And this is why I am gloomy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195866/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edouard Wemy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Usually when jobs and wages are rising, it’s a good thing, but right now they may signal higher odds of a nasty recession – and Americans aren’t ready for it.Edouard Wemy, Assistant Professor of Economics, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1953322022-11-25T08:25:28Z2022-11-25T08:25:28ZConflict in the DRC: 5 articles that explain what’s gone wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/497329/original/file-20221125-12-e7oxfk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Troops drive through Goma in eastern DRC in November 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Augustin Wamenya/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For nearly three decades, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been embroiled in violence. Millions of people have been killed, and an estimated 5.6 million others displaced by civil wars, local feuds and cross-border conflicts.</p>
<p>Studies have identified several reasons for the persistence of war, especially in the volatile east of the country. These include ethnic intolerance, the illegal exploitation of the country’s vast natural resources and a Congolese elite that benefits from the chaos.</p>
<p>Neighbouring countries – including Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/259540/kenyan-peacekeepers-arrive-in-drcs-volatile-east/">most recently Kenya</a> – are locked in the ongoing conflict, which has been termed one of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna34958903">world’s deadliest</a> since the second world war. Much of the current violence is centred in Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, which lie on the DRC’s eastern border. Combined, they are about seven times the size of Rwanda.</p>
<p>Consolidating peace efforts across the vast territory has proved difficult. Scholars writing for The Conversation Africa have highlighted a range of factors driving the conflict – and the challenges in the way of addressing them.</p>
<h2>1. The birth of M23</h2>
<p>Since the 1990s, armed groups have been part of the political economy of eastern Congo. Communities created self-defence militias in response to foreign-backed armed groups accused of using war to loot the country’s riches.</p>
<p>Over time, armed mobilisation turned into a goal in itself: to make money, to express political power or simply for the youth to cope with the chaos. Today, more than 120 armed groups are present in eastern DRC. </p>
<p>One of these is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/m23-four-things-you-should-know-about-the-rebel-groups-campaign-in-rwanda-drc-conflict-195020">March 23 Movement (M23)</a>. Kasper Hoffmann and Christoph Vogel analyse the development of M23 since its beginnings in 2012. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-m23s-on-and-off-insurgency-tells-us-about-drcs-precarious-search-for-peace-182520">What M23's on-and-off insurgency tells us about DRC's precarious search for peace</a>
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<h2>2. Regional dynamics</h2>
<p>The DRC has accused Rwanda of violating its sovereignty by supporting M23. A United Nations report supported this contention. Kigali, however, has dismissed the findings as “false allegations”. </p>
<p>Tensions between Rwanda and DRC date back to the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Many of the perpetrators of this violence, which killed about a million Rwandans, fled to the DRC, at the time called Zaire. The post-genocide Rwandan government launched military operations in a bid to force the perpetrators back home to face justice. Rwanda believes the DRC continues to provide refuge for those behind the 1994 massacre. Jonathan Beloff explains why both nations hold old suspicions of each other. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/rwanda-and-drcs-turbulent-past-continues-to-fuel-their-torrid-relationship-188405">Rwanda and DRC's turbulent past continues to fuel their torrid relationship</a>
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<h2>3. The lingering effects of colonialism</h2>
<p>Colonial ways of governing indigenous populations sowed seeds of ethnic tension in present-day Congo. Jacob Cloete’s research set out to establish whether a conflict in North Kivu in 1993 that grabbed headlines was the starting point of the current violence in eastern Congo. He argues, however, that it was the culmination of a much older one rooted in Belgian and German colonialism. As he explains:</p>
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<p>Based on a racist notion popular among African colonialists at the time, the two colonial administrations gave privileged status to some of the local population based on ethnicity.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-conflicts-intertwined-over-time-and-destabilised-the-drc-and-the-region-185432">How conflicts intertwined over time and destabilised the DRC – and the region</a>
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<h2>4. Questioning the UN’s intervention</h2>
<p>Over three decades of war, the Congo has received tens of billions of dollars in humanitarian aid and hosts one of the largest United Nations peacekeeping missions. The mission was established in 1999, and its mandate expanded in 2010 to include the protection of civilians. </p>
<p>The UN mission has long been blamed for failing to stabilise the country despite more than two decades of intervention. But as Delphin Ntanyoma explains, the UN is being blamed for what should be the DRC government’s responsibility: de-escalating violence and finding long-term solutions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-un-is-under-attack-in-eastern-congo-but-drc-elites-are-also-to-blame-for-the-violence-187861">The UN is under attack in eastern Congo. But DRC elites are also to blame for the violence</a>
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<h2>5. Rewarding rebellion</h2>
<p>Christopher P. Davey’s research into the Banyamulenge – a sub-group of the Congolese Tutsi ethnic group who originally come from the province of South Kivu in eastern DRC – adds to debate on the factors driving Congo’s violence. He argues that the Banyamulenge’s experiences illustrate how violence in the Congo multiplies across borders, blurs the lines between victim and perpetrator, and is used to win a place in government rather than to overthrow it. Davey notes that:</p>
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<p>I believe that to stop the cycle of violence, the DRC and its regional allies need a new status quo that doesn’t reward rebellion but decreases its appeal. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/burundis-gatumba-massacre-offers-a-window-into-the-past-and-future-of-the-drc-conflict-191351">Burundi's Gatumba massacre offers a window into the past and future of the DRC conflict</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195332/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Consolidating peace efforts across the vast territory has proved difficult for close to three decades. Scholars explain why.Julius Maina, Regional Editor East AfricaKagure Gacheche, Commissioning Editor, East AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1913512022-10-02T08:41:52Z2022-10-02T08:41:52ZBurundi’s Gatumba massacre offers a window into the past and future of the DRC conflict<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486859/original/file-20220927-18-9tkhfy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Men hold up protest signs in front of the coffins of DRC refugees killed in August 2004 in Gatumba, Burundi. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Simon Maina/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For nearly three decades, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been embroiled in violence. Millions of people have been killed and an <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-future-of-the-drc/">estimated 5.6 million</a> others displaced by civil wars, local feuds and cross-border conflicts. The neighbouring countries of Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda have been locked into this ongoing cycle, too.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.easterncongo.org/about-drc/history-of-the-conflict/">The First Congo War</a> began in 1996, with a coalition of the DRC’s neighbours supporting a rebel group that toppled the dictator Mobutu Sese Seko. Laurent Kabila was installed as head of state in 1997. A year later, however, a bloodier war began amid violent jostling for power and influence.</p>
<p>In December 2002, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/dec/17/congo">peace deal</a> was signed. The DRC got a national army and new constitution. Democratic elections were held in 2006, the country’s first in more than 40 years. </p>
<p>But the violence soon resumed. Consolidating peace efforts across the vast territory proved difficult. Since then, the Congo has received tens of billions of dollars in humanitarian aid and hosts one of the largest <a href="https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/monusco">United Nations peacekeeping missions</a>.</p>
<p>Various studies have fronted several reasons for the persistence of war in the Congo. These include <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/central-africa/democratic-republic-congo/congos-peace-miracle-or-mirage">flaws</a> in the 2002 peace deal, a Congolese elite that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-un-is-under-attack-in-eastern-congo-but-drc-elites-are-also-to-blame-for-the-violence-187861">benefits from the chaos</a> and <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/countries/africa/2010-drc-mapping-report">ethnic intolerance</a>. </p>
<p>The events that have shaped the DRC mean different things to different actors. The fact that sub-Saharan Africa’s largest country has over <a href="https://minorityrights.org/country/democratic-republic-of-the-congo/">250 ethnic groups</a> gives a sense of the complexity of its plight.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-conflicts-intertwined-over-time-and-destabilised-the-drc-and-the-region-185432">How conflicts intertwined over time and destabilised the DRC – and the region</a>
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<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chris-Davey-9/research">My research</a> adds to debate on the factors driving the violence. I focused on the narratives of Banyamulenge soldiers. The Banyamulenge are a sub-group of the Congolese Tutsi ethnic group, and originally come from the province of South Kivu in eastern DRC.</p>
<p>They are an important constituency to consider because their experiences offer a window into past and current Congolese conflicts. </p>
<p>They illustrate how violence in the Congo multiplies across borders, blurs the lines between victim and perpetrator, and is used to win a place in government rather than to overthrow it. </p>
<p>From my research, I believe that to stop the cycle of violence, the DRC and its regional allies need a new status quo that doesn’t reward rebellion but decreases its appeal. Politics that facilitates peaceful livelihoods is essential.</p>
<h2>Tracing the pattern</h2>
<p>In August 2004, 166 members of the <a href="https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2071779/ACCORD_DR+Congo_Situation+of+Banyamulenge.pdf">Congolese Banyamulenge community</a> were <a href="https://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/africa/burundi/2004/0904/index.htm">killed in Gatumba</a>, a small town in Burundi near its border with DRC. They were at a UN-protected refugee camp. </p>
<p>The killings were <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3564358.stm">perpetrated</a> by a group of armed rebels, many of them from the Forces for National Liberation, a Burundian Hutu militia group. The group claimed their Banyamulenge victims were planning a new war in the Congo.</p>
<p>I <a href="https://commons.clarku.edu/gatumba/">spoke to</a> survivors of the 2004 massacre. Most felt that the attack wasn’t a one-off event, but part of a pattern of mobilising anti-Tutsi violence. </p>
<p>This began before Gatumba and persists into the present day. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://commons.clarku.edu/gatumba/">archive of Gatumba survivor accounts</a> that I was involved in curating attests to this ongoing persecution and the wider dysfunctions of the region. These include the lack of robust democracy or transparent governance, and high levels of insecurity. </p>
<p>Like most participants in Congolese conflicts, the rebels and refugees involved in the Gatumba massacre regularly crossed the DRC’s border. The Banyamulenge refugees fled to Burundi to escape turmoil in <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/drcsouth-kivu-jun-2004-situation-report-and-recommendations">South Kivu in 2004</a>. The Forces for National Liberation moved between DRC and Burundi to recruit, fight and cooperate with armed groups in both countries. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-drcs-colonial-legacy-forged-a-nexus-between-ethnicity-territory-and-conflict-153469">How DRC's colonial legacy forged a nexus between ethnicity, territory and conflict</a>
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</p>
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<p>The DRC’s borders are <a href="https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article-abstract/103/412/359/81797?redirectedFrom=fulltext">porous</a>, with the central government too weak to control its eastern region or its boundaries. DRC borders nine countries: Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo Brazzaville, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia.</p>
<p>These porous borders have allowed armed groups – like the Ugandan <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00358533.2011.542297">Allied Democratic Front</a> and Congolese-Tutsi <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-m23s-on-and-off-insurgency-tells-us-about-drcs-precarious-search-for-peace-182520">March 23 Movement</a> – to use the DRC as a base and battlefield, connecting civil conflicts across borders.</p>
<h2>Beyond ethnic conflict</h2>
<p>Gatumba was a border refugee camp. Hutu rebels found an easy target in Banyamulenge refugees, whom they associated with the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/jul/11/congo.rorycarroll">Tutsi rebels</a> behind the violence in the DRC. </p>
<p>The Forces for National Liberation deployed religious-flavoured anti-Tutsi rhetoric to motivate their political base. But there’s rarely a straight line between politics and ethnicity. The Hutu rebels <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/000203971605100202">were in political competition</a> against other Hutu-labelled militias and parties. </p>
<p>Contemporary rebel groups, too, act in multiple directions as they destabilise border areas, displacing and killing civilians. </p>
<p>The March 23 Movement, for instance, provides anti-Tutsi fodder for extremist politicians across the DRC. These politicians benefit from promoting <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14623528.2022.2078578">discrimination and hate speech</a>, and fuelling <a href="https://theconversation.com/protests-against-un-in-eastern-congo-highlight-peace-missions-crisis-of-legitimacy-187932">protests</a> against the UN mission. The movement’s use of force has <a href="https://chrispdavey.blogspot.com/2022/06/m23-memory-remains.html">hardened lines</a> between Tutsis and other Congolese. </p>
<h2>Illegal violence to legitimate power</h2>
<p>The Forces for National Liberation, like other rebel groups, committed atrocities to improve its bargaining position in peace talks. </p>
<p>By 2004, other Burundian rebels had cut a peace deal with the Burundi government to become politicians and army officers. The Forces for National Liberation was marginalised. It, therefore, stopped trying to overthrow the state and focused on killing civilians, hoping to use the threat of terrorism to negotiate its way into power. It worked. </p>
<p>Agathon Rwasa, the leader of the Forces for National Liberation, signed a deal. He now leads <a href="https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-burundi-agathon-rwasa-b10afc3bb09daf8e4b87782b057fb56d">Burundi’s opposition party</a> in parliament and has not gone to trial for any crimes.</p>
<p>This elevation of a guerrilla into government is not unique to Burundi. </p>
<p>Rebel groups in the DRC typically aren’t looking to overthrow the state. Instead, they’re <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ia/article-abstract/98/3/873/6581695?redirectedFrom=fulltext">using rebellion</a> to prove themselves a threat. They then sue for <a href="https://riftvalley.net/publication/recycling-rebels-demobilization-congo">limited peace</a> and an improved position either in DRC or in neighbouring countries like Burundi or Uganda. </p>
<p>As one Gatumba survivor observed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the reward for killing people is a promotion in our country. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>It’s been 18 years since the Gatumba massacre. Groups like the <a href="https://www.gatumbasurvivors.org/">Banyamulenge Gatumba Refugee Survivors Foundation</a> are <a href="https://www.wishtv.com/news/hundreds-gather-for-18th-anniversary-of-the-gatumba-massacre/">working internationally</a> to pursue accountability and justice. Yet, addressing their own community’s past and current involvement in DRC’s multi-directional violence is largely taboo. </p>
<p>Until a broader sense of the past is more widely shared among Congolese groups, rebels will flit across borders, civilians will be both victims and perpetrators, and groups will purchase political power with demonstrations of violent disruption.</p>
<p>Interstate collaboration between the DRC and Burundi governments for justice in Gatumba would be a first step towards building a future without impunity.</p>
<p><em>Ezra Schrader, a research assistant at the Strassler Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies with the Gatumba Survivors Project, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher P. Davey works for Clark University.</span></em></p>Violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo is used to win a place in government, not to overthrow it. And it keeps working.Christopher P. Davey, Visiting Assistant Professor, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1906162022-09-13T22:18:17Z2022-09-13T22:18:17ZFed likely to stay the course on interest rate hike as inflation ticks up but gas prices ease<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484416/original/file-20220913-20-683yx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C16%2C5447%2C3620&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lower gas prices will put downward pressure on inflation.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/gas-prices-are-displayed-at-a-loves-gas-station-on-news-photo/1423171717?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Federal Reserve received mixed news in the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">latest data on U.S. inflation</a> as it mulls another <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-seen-delivering-75-basis-point-hike-next-week-with-more-come-2022-09-13/">rate hike</a>.</p>
<p>Consumer prices <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/monthly-us-consumer-prices-unexpectedly-rise-august-core-inflation-picks-up-2022-09-13/">rose 8.3%</a> in August from a year earlier, data released on Sept. 13, 2022, shows. While this pace is down from the 8.5% annual gain experienced in July, it’s still higher than what <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/inflation-report-could-show-cpi-moderating-as-gas-and-travel-costs-fall.html">some economists had expected</a>.</p>
<p>The increase comes despite efforts by the U.S. central bank to tamp down the rising cost of living by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/fed-decision-july-2022-.html">repeatedly upping baseline interest rates</a> to slow the economy. </p>
<p>It will give the Fed encouragement to opt for a third straight 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike when it meets Sept. 20-21. But despite suggestions that the rate-setters might apply the economy’s brakes more aggressively – by means of a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-seen-delivering-75-basis-point-hike-next-week-with-more-come-2022-09-13/">full 1 percentage point rate jump</a> – I believe this is unlikely based on which goods went up in price and which did not in the latest data.</p>
<p>On a month-to-month basis, the categories of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/monthly-us-consumer-prices-unexpectedly-rise-august-core-inflation-picks-up-2022-09-13/">food and shelter</a> <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm">saw some of the steepest gains</a>. Food prices increased by 0.8% in August, with eating out jumping at a higher rate than buying groceries. Although this will disappoint consumers hoping to see a drop in food prices, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL">August’s data</a> does at least show that the rate of increase is slowing – down from gains of over 1% in recent months.</p>
<p>The same isn’t true for shelter, which rose 0.7% in August, the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAH1">biggest one-month increase since 1990</a>. </p>
<p>On their own, these increases would be cause for concern for the Fed – suggesting that attempts to cool inflation through rate hikes haven’t worked. But elsewhere there is one big indicator that overall inflation may soon be heading south: gas prices.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SETB01/">gasoline index dropped by 10.6% in August</a>, one of the biggest one-month declines ever, following a drop of 7.7% in July. </p>
<p>This is likely the result of a number of factors, both global in the shape of an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/prices-ease-attention-turns-europes-gas-stores-2022-09-06/">easing in the supply issues</a> that had driven costs up, and national with Americans <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a40770031/high-summer-gas-prices-vacation-travel/#:%7E:text=A%20new%20survey%20from%20AAA,habits%20to%20higher%20gas%20prices.">changing their travel habits and driving less</a> to minimize the effects of earlier gas price increases. This change in behavior has translated into lower demand and contributed to an overall decline in prices. </p>
<p>And the thing about gas prices is that any change has a knock-on effect on the prices of other commodities. Lower gas prices should mean <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/45165/41076_err160-summary.pdf?v=0">the cost of transporting goods</a>, including food, will go down over time. This should eventually bring down grocery bills.</p>
<p>Similarly, lower gas prices will eventually filter into energy costs. Lower energy bills may be a relief to renters and homeowners alike. As to rent inflation, that is <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2022/07/12/higher-interest-rates-may-not-make-a-dent-in-rising-rents-for-more-than-a-year/">trickier for the Fed to manage</a>. More interest rate hikes should dampen the property market, but making it harder for people to buy homes means the demand for rental units increases – something that would put more upward pressure on rents. All this puts the Fed in a very tricky situation. </p>
<p>Although the latest inflation report wasn’t exactly what monetary policymakers at the Fed would have been looking for, I don’t believe it suggests that its policy of late hasn’t worked.</p>
<p>Overall the consumer price index increased at a slower pace than in recent months. And given that gas prices have declined, the Fed will likely want to wait and see what effect this has on inflation before deciding to get more aggressive with rate increases.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edouard Wemy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Inflation remained near a 40-year high due to a jump in the cost of food and shelter. But that might not mean the Federal Reserve will get more aggressive when it comes to monetary policy.Edouard Wemy, Assistant Professor of Economics, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1876642022-08-26T12:18:33Z2022-08-26T12:18:33ZSome refugees stay in temporary status indefinitely – how they still manage to create homes and communities<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480646/original/file-20220823-2358-lf0rxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5760%2C3819&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A cafe in Cairo, Egypt, that is predominantly visited by Sudanese migrants, in August 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/man-walks-by-a-sudanese-flag-near-a-cafe-that-predominantly-news-photo/991484150?adppopup=true">Oliver Weiken/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than 6.5 million <a href="https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine">Ukrainian war refugees are now scattered across Europe</a> and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-admits-100000-ukrainians-in-5-months-fulfilling-biden-pledge/">North America</a>, most with temporary emergency residency allowing them to <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/ukraine-measures/key-figures.html">stay in host countries</a> for one to three years. </p>
<p>But roughly half a year into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war looks unlikely to end soon. Ukrainians may be unable to return to their home country for years to come. </p>
<p>They are not alone in their plight.</p>
<p>Refugees from around the world are living with displacement longer than they did three decades ago. Host countries in North America and Europe that traditionally granted refugees permanent resettlement are increasingly offering <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/oa-edit/10.4324/9780429351730-13/end-asylum-jessica-schultz?context=ubx&refId=f3d45994-14d2-47d5-88e4-76b481be9189">temporary status only</a>. At the same time, the displaced population is rising. In 2021, the United Nations estimated <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/uk/globaltrends.html">more than 89 million people worldwide were forced to flee</a> their homes, up from 43 million in 2012.</p>
<p>Today, the average refugee remains in a state of temporary residence <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/06/19/when-refugee-displacement-drags-on-is-self-reliance-the-answer/">for 10 to 26 years</a>, up from about <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/uk/excom/standcom/40c982172/protracted-refugee-situations.html">nine years in 1993</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://refuge.journals.yorku.ca/index.php/refuge/issue/view/2299">Our academic research</a> focuses on what refugees and other displaced people do to make homes for themselves even as their lives remain in flux – sometimes for decades on end. </p>
<p>Understanding these practices could help create more pragmatic refugee policies. As <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/aug/18/century-climate-crisis-migration-why-we-need-plan-great-upheaval">migration becomes increasingly more common and more necessary</a>, laws that stand in the way of the universal human need to make a home also prevent societies from learning how to cope with refugee crises.</p>
<h2>Practices of survival and sustenance</h2>
<p>Between 1990 and 2018 we conducted <a href="https://refuge.journals.yorku.ca/index.php/refuge/article/view/40149">wide-ranging research</a> with long-term <a href="https://refuge.journals.yorku.ca/index.php/refuge/article/view/40141">refugees and other displaced people</a> in the Middle East, Africa, Europe and North America. Our work shows that displaced people find creative ways to settle into life despite refugee policies that keep them in limbo. </p>
<p>From Sudanese refugees living in Egypt to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09502386.2015.1113633">Georgians</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9493.2008.00334.x">Sri Lankans</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.25071/1920-7336.40141">displaced within their own countries</a>, we found that most started making homes quickly. They sent their children to school, cooked meals and scrounged furniture.</p>
<p>These daily practices are essential for “holding things together,” our research participants told us, with many of them explaining that they had to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3167/sa.2015.590102">keep going because of their children</a>. </p>
<p>Most of the refugees also kept their living space clean, whether it was a room in an abandoned hotel, a tent or a shelter. They have shown us that maintaining and modifying one’s living space is essential for a feeling of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-047163-1.00313-1">autonomy, dignity and respect</a>. </p>
<p>These observations are supported by other research on displaced people. In New Orleans, Hurricane Katrina survivors who were residing in FEMA trailers that they were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-008-9124-y">not allowed to personalize</a> showed poor health outcomes and depression after a few years in these conditions.</p>
<p>Those who aren’t refugees can likely relate to these feelings. People try to make home even when they do not feel at home, in ways many people would recognize.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tall person in a red coat accompanies a smaller person toward a glass building." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480643/original/file-20220823-15-korzbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480643/original/file-20220823-15-korzbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480643/original/file-20220823-15-korzbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480643/original/file-20220823-15-korzbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480643/original/file-20220823-15-korzbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480643/original/file-20220823-15-korzbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480643/original/file-20220823-15-korzbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ukrainians walk toward a refugee shelter set up in an exhibition hall in Dresden, Germany, in March 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/march-2022-lower-saxony-hanover-a-woman-and-a-child-walk-in-news-photo/1239102319?adppopup=true">Julian Stratenschulte/picture alliance via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While daily practices of survival and sustenance are important, refugees need more to create homes in exile. For <a href="https://doi.org/10.25071/1920-7336.40149">one of our studies</a>, co-author Anita Fabos accompanied Sudanese refugees living in exile in Cairo, Egypt, on daily visits to other Sudanese families. </p>
<p>One hot summer afternoon, she went on a 10-hour social tour of the city with a 26-year-old secretary named Khalda after she finished work. They set off on foot to a nearby Sudanese human rights office for a quick visit with Khalda’s activist friends, then took the Metro several stops to board a minibus that took them an hour outside of Cairo to greet a newly arrived Sudanese refugee family over tea and biscuits. Back in her own neighborhood, Khalda paid several more calls to fellow Sudanese. </p>
<p>Khalda’s social rounds were an exhausting daily ritual. But for Sudanese in Egypt, giving and receiving hospitality was a way to rebuild their communal sense of home in a new and insecure place.</p>
<h2>What is home?</h2>
<p>Our work also reveals that “home” means different things to different people. It can be a house, a familiar ritual, a homeland or social relations – or many things at once. </p>
<p>This multifaceted understanding of home was reflected in a young displaced man <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C22&q=Cathrine+Brun&btnG=">co-author Cathrine Brun</a> interviewed in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780080471631003131?via%3Dihub">Sri Lanka in the late 1990s</a>. Home, for him, was the place he had been forced to leave nine years earlier. At the same time, he felt at home in the familiar camp where he lived because he knew everyone around him. When the young man left the camp, he sometimes faced abuse by locals who called him a “refugee.” Only then did he feel homeless. </p>
<p>Listening to refugees and displaced people share their home-making strategies showed us that “home” does not refer just to a person’s country of origin. </p>
<p>Instead, refugees develop what we call “<a href="https://doi.org/10.25071/1920-7336.40138">constellations of home</a>.” They participate in daily life locally while remaining connected to other home places. They nurture relationships, memories and ideals as additional dimensions of their home constellations. </p>
<h2>Policy limbo</h2>
<p>For refugee agencies, however – and often <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-all-live-in-some-kind-of-limbo-its-been-six-months-since-russia-invaded-ukraine-and-ukrainian-war-refugees-long-for-home-01661201431">news stories about refugees</a> – “home” generally <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jhuman/hux021">refers only to a specific country</a>. </p>
<p>International policy recognizes only three “durable solutions” to refugee displacement. Ideally, conditions in the country of origin improve enough for refugees can return. Alternatively, host countries allow refugees to naturalize and build new lives. If neither is possible, refugees may be sent permanently to a third country. </p>
<p>Refugee status, in other words, is designed to be temporary; it is resolved internationally, either by being taken in or taken back. But as conflicts persist and host countries increasingly resist offering refugees a permanent new home, more people are becoming “permanently temporary” instead.</p>
<p>Our research argues against rigid policies that treat refugees as homeless until they are absorbed back into the international system. By understanding our constellations of home model, refugee agencies and host countries could move past trying to achieve “durable solutions” that are scarce and have the real-world effect of keeping people in limbo.</p>
<p>Take Egypt’s approach to <a href="https://www.berghahnbooks.com/title/FabosBrothers/loc">Sudanese refugees in the early 1990s</a>. </p>
<p>Sudanese in Cairo rented their own apartments, sent their children to local schools and set up self-help organizations largely on their own. They were free to move across the city, visiting one another and creating a homey feeling of life “back in Sudan.” </p>
<p>Because neither Egypt nor the U.N. imposed temporary conditions on their exile, they could recreate livelihoods even while dispersed: Many left to find work in wealthy Arab Gulf countries, sending money to family members still in Cairo and returning to visit. </p>
<p>Egypt was not Sudan. But Sudanese refugees in Cairo managed to create constellations of home while on the move because they had the freedoms and rights necessary to do so. </p>
<p>A refugee policy that incorporates the constellations of home model is more than a <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/uk/the-global-compact-on-refugees.html">self-reliance strategy</a>. It can work only when all dimensions of the constellation – from daily practices of survival to feelings of community membership and the ability to plan for the future – are fulfilled.</p>
<p>As the war in Ukraine rages on, both host societies and refugees themselves would benefit by moving beyond the politics of limbo and toward recognizing that home is more than just a country.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187664/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anita H. Fábos receives funding from the National Science Foundation. Research presented in this article was funded by the Social Science Research Council, the Population Council, the Mellon Foundation, and Clark University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cathrine Brun receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (UK), the Research Council of Norway, The International Development Research Centre (Canada) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. In addition to her affiliation with the Lebanese American University, she is a professor (part-time) at the Centre for Development and Emergency Practice, Oxford Brookes University, and a visiting scholar at the Faculty of Education, University of Cambridge. </span></em></p>It’s not just Ukrainians. In 2021, nearly 90 million people were forced to flee their homes.Anita H. Fábos, Professor of International Development, Community, and Environment, Clark UniversityCathrine Brun, Deputy Director for Research, Centre for Lebanese Studies at Lebanese American UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1870572022-08-11T12:14:18Z2022-08-11T12:14:18ZPoliticians seek to control classroom discussions about slavery in the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478567/original/file-20220810-4757-e6ok2b.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3994%2C2664&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Texas law says slavery cannot be taught as part of the 'true founding' of the United States.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/members-of-the-house-select-committee-on-constitutional-news-photo/1233910770?adppopup=true">Tamir Kalifa/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Of all the subjects taught in the nation’s public schools, few have generated as much controversy of late as the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1818816116">subjects of racism and slavery</a> in the United States.</p>
<p>The attention has come largely through a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/05/gop-red-wave-critical-race-theory-526523">flood of legislative bills put forth primarily by Republicans</a> over the past year and a half. Commonly referred to as anti-critical race theory legislation, these bills are meant to <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/22525983/map-critical-race-theory-legislation-teaching-racism">restrict how teachers discuss race and racism in their classrooms</a>.</p>
<p>One of the more peculiar byproducts of this legislation came out of Texas, where, in June 2022, an advisory panel made up of nine educators recommended that slavery be referred to as “<a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/06/30/texas-slavery-involuntary-relocation/">involuntary relocation</a>.” </p>
<p>The measure <a href="https://www.complex.com/life/texas-education-slavery-involuntary-relocation">ultimately failed</a>.</p>
<p>As an educator who trains teachers on how to educate young students about the history of slavery in the United States, I see the Texas proposal as part of a disturbing trend of politicians seeking to hide the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-world-history-of-violence/violence-slavery-and-race-in-early-english-and-french-america/A70A9EB704B9377091F489FB185C596D">horrific and brutal nature of slavery</a> – and to keep it divorced from the nation’s birth and development.</p>
<p>The Texas proposal, for instance, grew out of work done under a <a href="https://capitol.texas.gov/tlodocs/872/billtext/pdf/SB00003F.pdf#navpanes=0">Texas law</a> that says slavery and racism can’t be taught as part of the “true founding” of the United States. Rather, the law states, they must be taught as a “failure to live up to the authentic founding principles of the United States, which include liberty and equality.”</p>
<p>To better understand the nature of slavery and the role it played in America’s development, it helps to have some basic facts about how long slavery lasted in the territory now known as the United States and how many enslaved people it involved. I also believe in using authentic records to show students the reality of slavery.</p>
<h2>Before the Mayflower</h2>
<p>Slavery in what is now known as the United States is often traced back to the year 1619. That is when – as documented by <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Rolfe">Colonist John Rolfe</a> – a ship named the White Lion delivered <a href="https://www.nps.gov/jame/learn/historyculture/african-americans-at-jamestown.htm">20 or so enslaved Africans </a> to Virginia.</p>
<p>As for the notion that slavery was not part of the founding of the United States, that is easily refuted by the U.S. Constitution itself. Specifically, <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S9-C1-1/ALDE_00001086/">Article 1, Section 9, Clause 1</a> prevented Congress from prohibiting the “importation” of slaves until 1808 – nearly 20 years after the Constitution was ratified – although it didn’t use the word “slaves.” Instead, the Constitution used the phrase “such Persons as any of the States now existing shall think proper to admit.”</p>
<p>Congress ultimately passed the “<a href="https://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/slave-trade.html#:%7E:text=The%201808%20Act%20imposed%20heavy,its%20passengers%20sold%20into%20slavery.">Act Prohibiting the Importation of Slaves</a>,” which took effect in 1808. Although the act imposed heavy penalties on international traders, it did not end slavery itself nor the domestic sale of slaves. Not only did it drive trade underground, but many ships caught illegally trading were also brought into the United States and their “<a href="https://www.docsteach.org/documents/document/act-prohibit-importation-slaves">passengers</a>” sold into slavery.</p>
<p>The last known slave ship – the Clotilda – <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/clotilda-last-known-slave-ship-arrive-us-found-180972177/">arrived in Mobile, Alabama, in 1860</a>, more than half a century after Congress outlawed the importation of enslaved individuals.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478572/original/file-20220810-11-fge28d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of Africa showing slave trade routes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478572/original/file-20220810-11-fge28d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478572/original/file-20220810-11-fge28d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478572/original/file-20220810-11-fge28d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478572/original/file-20220810-11-fge28d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=613&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478572/original/file-20220810-11-fge28d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478572/original/file-20220810-11-fge28d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478572/original/file-20220810-11-fge28d.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An 1880 map shows where enslaved people originated from and in which directions they were forced out.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/map-showing-the-sources-of-slave-supply-and-routes-of-news-photo/3277873?adppopup=true">Hulton Archive/Stringer via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>According to the <a href="https://hutchinscenter.fas.harvard.edu/trans-atlantic-slave-trade-database">Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade database</a>, which derives it numbers from shipping records from 1525 to 1866, approximately 12.5 million enslaved Africans were transported to the Americas. About 10.7 million survived the Middle Passage and arrived in North America, the Caribbean and South America. Of these, only a small portion – <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wnet/african-americans-many-rivers-to-cross/history/how-many-slaves-landed-in-the-us/">388,000</a> – arrived in North America.</p>
<p>Most enslaved people in the United States, then, entered slavery not through importation or “involuntary relocation,” but by birth.</p>
<p>From the arrival of those first 20 so enslaved Africans in 1619 until slavery was <a href="https://www.archives.gov/historical-docs/13th-amendment#:%7E:text=Passed%20by%20Congress%20on%20January,within%20the%20United%20States%2C%20or">abolished in 1865</a>, approximately <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0144039X.2020.1755502">10 million slaves lived in the United States and contributed 410 billion hours of labor</a>. This is why slavery is a “<a href="https://equitablegrowth.org/working-papers/the-contribution-of-enslaved-workers-to-output-and-growth-in-the-antebellum-united-states/">crucial building block</a>” to understanding the U.S. economy from the nation’s founding up until the Civil War.</p>
<h2>The value of historical records</h2>
<p>As an educator who trains teachers on how to deal with the subject of slavery, I don’t see any value in politicians’ restricting what teachers can and can’t say about the role that slaveholders – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/interactive/2022/congress-slaveowners-names-list/">at least 1,800 of whom were congressmen</a>, not to mention the <a href="https://www.whitehousehistory.org/slavery-in-the-presidents-neighborhood-faq#:%7E:text=A%3A%20According%20to%20surviving%20documentation%2C%20at%20least%20twelve%20presidents%20were,Andrew%20Johnson%2C%20and%20Ulysses%20S.">12 who were U.S. presidents</a> – played in the upholding of slavery in American society.</p>
<p>What I see value in is the use of historical records to educate schoolchildren about the harsh realities of slavery. There are three types of records that I recommend in particular.</p>
<h2>1. Census records</h2>
<p>Since enslaved people were counted in each census that took place from 1790 to 1860, census records enable students to learn a lot about who specifically owned slaves. Census records also enable students to see differences in slave ownership within states and throughout the nation.</p>
<p>The censuses also show the growth of the slave population over time – from
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0144039X.2020.1755502">697,624</a> during the first census in 1790, shortly after the nation’s founding, to <a href="https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1860/population/1860a-02.pdf">3.95 million</a> during the 1860 census, <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/civil-war-the-nation-moves-towards-war-1850-to-1861/">as the nation stood at the verge of civil war</a>.</p>
<h2>2. Ads for runaway slaves</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478576/original/file-20220810-11-2f8cts.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An advertisement for two men who ran away from slavery" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478576/original/file-20220810-11-2f8cts.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478576/original/file-20220810-11-2f8cts.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=821&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478576/original/file-20220810-11-2f8cts.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=821&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478576/original/file-20220810-11-2f8cts.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=821&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478576/original/file-20220810-11-2f8cts.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1031&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478576/original/file-20220810-11-2f8cts.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1031&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478576/original/file-20220810-11-2f8cts.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1031&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Advertisements for fugitive slaves offer a glimpse into their lives.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Few things speak to the horrors and harms of slavery like ads that slave owners took out for runaway slaves.</p>
<p>It’s not hard to find ads that describe fugitive slaves whose bodies were covered with various scars from beatings and marks from branding irons.</p>
<p>For instance, consider an <a href="https://dlas.uncg.edu/notices/notice/505">ad taken out on July 3, 1823</a>, in the<a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/sn83025819/"> Star, and North-Carolina State Gazette</a> by Alford Green, who offers $25 for a fugitive slave named Ned, whom he described as follows:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“… about 21 years old, his weight about 150, well made, spry and active tolorably fierce look, a little inclined to be yellow, his upper fore teeth a little defective, and, I expect, has some signs of the whip on his hips and thighs, as he was whipped in that way the day before he went off.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Advertisements for runaway slaves can be accessed via digital databases, such as <a href="https://app.freedomonthemove.org/">Freedom on the Move</a>, which contains more than 32,000 ads. Another database – the <a href="http://dlas.uncg.edu/notices/">North Carolina Runaway Slave Notices project</a> – contains 5,000 ads published in North Carolina newspapers from 1751 to 1865. The sheer number of these advertisements sheds light on how many enslaved Black people attempted to escape bondage.</p>
<h2>3. Personal narratives from the enslaved</h2>
<p>Though they are few in number, recordings of interviews with formerly enslaved people exist.</p>
<p>Some of the interviews are <a href="https://www.loc.gov/collections/slave-narratives-from-the-federal-writers-project-1936-to-1938/articles-and-essays/introduction-to-the-wpa-slave-narratives/limitations-of-the-slave-narrative-collection">problematic</a> for various reasons. For instance, some of the interviews were heavily edited by interviewers or did not include complete, word-for-word transcripts of the interviews.</p>
<p>Yet the interviews still provide a glimpse at the harshness of life in bondage. They also expose the fallacy of the argument that slaves – <a href="https://docsouth.unc.edu/fpn/wise/wise.html">as one slave owner claimed in his memoir</a> – “loved ‘old Marster’ better than anybody in the world, and would not have freedom if he offered it to them.”</p>
<p>For instance, when Fountain Hughes – a <a href="https://www.monticello.org/getting-word/people/fountain-hughes">descendant of a slave owned by Thomas Jefferson</a> who spent his boyhood in slavery in Charlottesville, Virginia – was asked if he would rather be free or enslaved, he <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/afc1950037_afs09990a/">told his interviewer</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“You know what I’d rather do? If I thought, had any idea, that I’d ever be a slave again, I’d take a gun and just end it all right away, because you’re nothing but a dog. You’re not a thing but a dog. A night never come that you had nothing to do. Time to cut tobacco? If they want you to cut all night long out in the field, you cut. And if they want you to hang all night long, you hang tobacco. It didn’t matter about you’re tired, being tired. You’re afraid to say you’re tired.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It’s ironic, then, that when it comes to teaching America’s schoolchildren about the horrors of American slavery and how entrenched it was in America’s political establishment, some politicians would prefer to shackle educators with restrictive laws. What they could do is grant educators the ability to teach freely about the role the slavery played in the forming of a nation that was founded – as the Texas law states - on principles of liberty and equality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187057/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raphael E. Rogers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Lawmakers are seeking to downplay the role that slavery played in the development of the United States, but history tells a different story.Raphael E. Rogers, Professor of Practice in Education, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1818922022-05-12T12:14:57Z2022-05-12T12:14:57ZUkraine’s information war is winning hearts and minds in the West<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462340/original/file-20220510-12-v337jw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C8%2C5439%2C3618&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is introduced to the US Congress by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi on March 16, 2022 in Washington, DC. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/speaker-of-the-house-nancy-pelosi-introduces-ukrainian-news-photo/1239233680?adppopup=true">J. Scott Applewhite-Pool/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dominated headlines since late February 2022. The war struck a nerve among Western audiences, evoking a high <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/15/public-expresses-mixed-views-of-u-s-response-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/#u-s-support-for-ukraine">degree of support</a> for Ukraine.</p>
<p>The reasons for the prominence of the war in the West are many and varied. </p>
<p>A ground war in Europe launched by a major military power evokes the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/26/russia-ukraine-war-soviet-legacy/">ghosts of World War II</a>. This is especially true when the attacking country <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/04/putin-sovereignty-ukraine-irredentism/">has designs on territory it considers integral to its nation</a>, and is led by a <a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/putins-war-and-personalist-authoritarianism/">personalist authoritarian regime</a> where all <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-best-way-to-stop-strongmen-like-putin-is-to-prevent-their-rise-in-the-first-place-179624">power is concentrated in a single leader</a>. The deep involvement of the <a href="https://www.state.gov/united-with-ukraine/">U.S.</a> and European countries, both individually and collectively through <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm">NATO</a> and the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/stronger-europe-world/eu-solidarity-ukraine_en">European Union</a>, also inspires <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/new-cold-war-0">Cold War comparisons</a>.</p>
<p>The resulting <a href="https://www.icrc.org/en/humanitarian-crisis-ukraine">humanitarian crisis</a>, including the mass exodus of over 5 million <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/ukraine-emergency.html">refugees</a>, underscores the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230374980">ethical and moral implications of the war</a>. </p>
<p>These <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/ip.2014.40">historical analogies</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.397">simplifying ideas</a> help explain why the West’s imagination has been captured by this war.</p>
<p>But there’s more to the West’s captivation with the war than is immediately apparent. As a <a href="https://www2.clarku.edu/faculty/facultybio.cfm?id=631">scholar of armed conflict and security</a>, I also find a compelling explanation for why the West is so focused on Ukraine in the Ukrainian government’s ability to provide information about the war in a way that appeals to Western sensibilities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462343/original/file-20220510-12-4v88kl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="The wreckage of buildings destroyed by shelling." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462343/original/file-20220510-12-4v88kl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462343/original/file-20220510-12-4v88kl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462343/original/file-20220510-12-4v88kl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462343/original/file-20220510-12-4v88kl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462343/original/file-20220510-12-4v88kl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462343/original/file-20220510-12-4v88kl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462343/original/file-20220510-12-4v88kl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘A ground war in Europe launched by a major military power evokes the ghosts of World War II,’ writes the author. Here, buildings destroyed by intensive shelling by Russian troops in Kharkiv, Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rubble-and-debris-around-a-building-destroyed-in-the-news-photo/1395399390?adppopup=true">Eugene Zinchenko/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Weaponizing information</h2>
<p>Russia’s use of <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/30/russia-putin-zampolits-ukraine-propaganda-campaign-war/">propaganda</a> and <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-letter-z-fascist-symbol/31758267.html">symbols</a> during the conflict, most recently in the “Victory Day” celebrations attempting to draw its own distorted parallels to World War II, has gotten a lot of attention. In the process, Ukraine’s skillful use of information warfare should not be overlooked. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ/journals/Chronicles/borden.pdf">Information warfare</a> entails one party denying, exploiting or corrupting the delivery and function of an enemy’s information. It is used both to protect oneself against the enemy’s information and to create a favorable environment for one’s own information.</p>
<p>With the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/comedian-wartime-leader-zelenskyy-helping-ukraine-win-information/story?id=84340282">charismatic</a> President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leading the way, Ukraine’s savvy use of traditional and <a href="https://theconversation.com/guns-tanks-and-twitter-how-russia-and-ukraine-are-using-social-media-as-the-war-drags-on-180131">social media</a> as well as direct appeals to the U.S. Congress, European Parliament and the court of world opinion have provided <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.1993.tb01304.x">a clear and compelling framing</a> of the war. </p>
<p>That frame is structured around five affecting themes: the inherently just cause of Ukrainian self-defense; the tenacity of Ukrainian resistance; the barbarity of Russian conduct; Russia’s flawed military strategy and general ineptitude; and Ukraine’s desperate need for more, and more sophisticated, military hardware. </p>
<p>Ukraine’s successful strategy in the battle over information demonstrates the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26271590?seq=1">connection</a> between armed conflict and information warfare. Ukraine has forged a stalemate with Russia by stressing these themes of a just war for national liberation using not only traditional tools of warfare – bullets, missiles, tanks – but also by shaping the Western public’s perceptions of the war.</p>
<h2>Learning from the enemy</h2>
<p>The information front in the Russia-Ukraine war is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2020.0014">nothing new</a>. It was <a href="https://isd.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/2022/03/Case-331.pdf">opened by Russia in 2014</a> during its annexation of Crimea and incursion in the Donbas region. Russia took the offensive to cover up its territorial aims, saying instead that it was there to protect civilians and resist the further spread of Western imperialism. </p>
<p>At the time, Ukrainians and Russians alike were buffeted with this disinformation through Russia’s state-controlled international English-language service <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/13/magazine/rt-sputnik-and-russias-new-theory-of-war.html?searchResultPosition=4">RT</a> and viral videos on <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-31715389">YouTube</a> and various social media outlets. </p>
<p>Since then, Ukraine’s security and defense establishment has focused on improving its ability to counter such <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2015.1079047">disinformation tactics</a>. Zelenskyy’s surprise landslide victory in the 2019 presidential election gave Ukraine what has proved to be its biggest asset. A <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/03/14/volodymyr-zelensky-leads-the-defense-of-ukraine-with-his-voice">skilled communicator and performer</a>, Zelenskyy regularly and effectively uses available information to <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/russian-propaganda-zelensky-information-war/629475/">present Ukraine’s version of the war</a> and debunk Russia’s. His initial selfie videos from the streets of Kyiv underscored Ukrainian bravery and unity in a war of self-defense – “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/video/president-zelenskyy-posts-defiant-selfie-video-from-ukraine-s-capital-134062661977">the citizens are here, and we are here</a>.” </p>
<p>Zelenskyy’s mid-March <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/watch-live-zelensky-to-deliver-virtual-address-to-u-s-congress">virtual address to</a> the U.S. Congress drew a direct line from Russian atrocities – featured in a graphic video clip he showed to lawmakers – to the need for the West to “do more.” His <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/04/05/volodymyr-zelensky-full-united-nations-speech-bucha-massacre-sot-vpx.cnn">address to the U.N.</a> in early April expanded the scope and terms of the war, <a href="https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/vistup-prezidenta-ukrayini-na-zasidanni-radi-bezpeki-oon-74121">defining it as an existential struggle</a> against tyranny and evil and for the very soul of the U.N.: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“If this continues, the finale will be that each state will rely only on the power of arms to ensure its security, not on international law, not on international institutions. Then, the U.N. can simply be dissolved. Ladies and gentlemen! Are you ready for the dissolving of the U.N.? Do you think that the time of international law has passed? If your answer is no, you need to act now, act immediately.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Getting by with a little help …</h2>
<p>Ukraine’s use of the techniques of information warfare as well as its compelling messaging and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/24/europe/klitschko-brothers-battle-for-ukraine-intl-cmd/index.html">messengers</a> account for much of its success on that front. Among those messengers are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/24/europe/klitschko-brothers-battle-for-ukraine-intl-cmd/index.html">former champion boxers the Klitschko brothers</a>, one of whom is the mayor of Kyiv, and both of whom are now prominent advocates for the defense of their country. </p>
<p>Ukraine has also benefited from pro bono public relations services from major Washington, D.C., firms such as <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/5wpr-announces-partnership-with-ukraine-based-non-profit-organization-tikva-odessa-301505456.html">5WPR</a> and <a href="https://www.axios.com/washington-lobbyists-aid-ukrainian-government-47125a71-cb77-4178-af6c-2652f5a599bc.html">SKDK</a> as well as some of their <a href="https://www.prweek.com/article/1748159/global-pr-community-rallies-help-ukraine-government-comms">U.K. counterparts</a>. </p>
<p>SKDK’s managing director, Anita Dunn, served as senior adviser to President Joe Biden throughout his presidential campaign and in the early months of his administration and is reportedly <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anita-dunn-white-house-returning/">returning to the White House</a> in advance of the upcoming midterm elections. SKDK assisted in <a href="https://efile.fara.gov/docs/7085-Exhibit-AB-20220228-1.pdf">drafting Zelenskyy’s speeches</a> condemning Russian aggression and war crimes to the U.N. General Assembly and Security Council. This parallels pro bono legal support from Washington, D.C., law firms such as Covington & Burling, which filed a <a href="https://www.natlawreview.com/article/law-firms-respond-to-russia-s-invasion-ukraine-how-legal-industry-public-can-help">brief to the International Court of Justice</a> on Ukraine’s behalf in March. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462345/original/file-20220510-18-ag3m9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A section of PR and lobbying firm SKDK's disclosure form that stated it was providing free help to the Ukrainian government 'in connection with the foreign principal's remarks to the United Nations Security Council and General Assembly.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462345/original/file-20220510-18-ag3m9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462345/original/file-20220510-18-ag3m9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462345/original/file-20220510-18-ag3m9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462345/original/file-20220510-18-ag3m9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462345/original/file-20220510-18-ag3m9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462345/original/file-20220510-18-ag3m9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462345/original/file-20220510-18-ag3m9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A section of PR and lobbying firm SKDK’s disclosure form that stated it was providing free help to the Ukrainian government ‘in connection with the foreign.
principal’s remarks to the United Nations Security Council and General Assembly.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://efile.fara.gov/docs/7085-Exhibit-AB-20220228-1.pdf">FARA Registration Unit</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The limits of framing</h2>
<p>In a textbook example of <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-hybrid-warfare-and-what-is-meant-by-the-grey-zone-118841">hybrid warfare</a> – warfare fought in domains other than the physical battlefield – Ukraine has transformed successes on the information battleground into effective defense of its homeland from Russian aggression. The West has massively increased its support of the country through weapons shipments, intelligence sharing and other aid.</p>
<p>Still, questions remain about the long-term viability of this strategy. Can Ukraine’s strategic use of information continue to offset Russia’s material advantages?</p>
<p>By definition, information warfare obscures and distorts reality in order to tilt perceptions of a conflict to a country’s advantage. Paraphrasing an age-old adage, the war between Russia and Ukraine is a reminder that the first battle in contemporary wars may be for the truth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/181892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Butler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The reasons for the prominence of the Ukraine war in the West are many – and include the Ukrainian government’s strategic efforts to tailor presentations of the conflict for Western sensibilities.Michael Butler, Associate Professor of Political Science, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1796182022-05-05T12:44:07Z2022-05-05T12:44:07Z‘Walking through Europe’s door, singing’ – How Eurovision helps define Europe’s boundaries (and why Ukraine will likely win)<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/460412/original/file-20220428-24-ca3gcb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C71%2C2995%2C1922&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could Ukraine's entry be heading for Eurovision success?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://eurovision.tv/mediacentre/gallery/kalush-orchestra-ukraine-2022">Maxim Fesenko/eurovision.tv</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year’s <a href="https://eurovision.tv/">Eurovision Song Contest</a> – an annual celebration of pop music in which nations compete to win the votes of judges and the public – takes place on May 14 in Turin, Italy. And <a href="https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision">Ukraine is overwhelmingly the favorite</a> to win.</p>
<p>While the latest odds first and foremost reflect the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/stronger-europe-world/eu-solidarity-ukraine_en">widespread sympathy throughout Europe</a> for besieged Ukraine, it certainly helps that the Ukrainian entry, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiEGVYOruLk">Kalush Orchestra’s “Stefania</a>,” hits the right notes when it comes to Eurovision. Combining traditional folk sounds with modern hip-hop, the song is sentimental and upbeat at the same time. </p>
<p>Originally penned as an ode to the lead singer’s mother, “Stefania” has since become an anthem for the nation at war. </p>
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<p>Sung entirely in Ukrainian, it showcases historical costumes and traditional instruments in a firm stamp of Ukrainian identity, while also effectively merging a melodic chorus with the global rhythms of hip-hop. Overall, the song reflects something of Ukraine’s resilient attitude in the face of Russian aggression as well as its pro-Western cultural leanings. Indeed, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/culture/2022/04/06/ukraine-s-eurovision-entry-perform-for-young-ukrainian-refugees-in-jerusalem">one member of Kalush Orchestra declared</a>: “Our country will not only win the war, but also win the Eurovision.”</p>
<p>Russia was intent on competing this year as well. In February, however, the <a href="https://www.ebu.ch/home">European Broadcasting Union</a>, the organization behind Eurovision, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2022/feb/25/russia-banned-from-eurovision-after-invasion-of-ukraine#:%7E:text=Russia%20will%20no%20longer%20be,bring%20the%20competition%20into%20disrepute%E2%80%9">banned Russia from the competition</a>, under mounting pressure from other participating countries over the invasion of Ukraine.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://www.routledge.com/A-Song-for-Europe-Popular-Music-and-Politics-in-the-Eurovision-Song-Contest/Tobin-Raykoff/p/book/9780754658795">long studied Eurovision</a> as <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Eurovision-Song-Contest-as-a-Cultural-Phenomenon-From-Concert-Halls/Dubin-Vuletic-Obregon/p/book/9781032037745">a cultural and political event</a>. If Ukraine does win, I believe it will continue Eurovision’s ongoing legacy of marking the boundaries of the liberal West. Despite the popular and ephemeral nature of its songs, the event has, since its inception, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Postwar-Europe-Eurovision-Song-Contest/dp/1474276261?asin=1474276261&revisionId=&format=4&depth=1">reflected the political culture and geopolitical realities of Europe</a>.</p>
<h2>They had a dream</h2>
<p>Founded in <a href="https://eurovision.tv/history/in-a-nutshell#:%7E:text=The%20history%20of%20the%20Eurovision,1956%2C%20when%20seven%20nations%20participated.">1956 by the European Broadcasting Union</a>, the Eurovision Song Contest is the longest continuously running televised international musical competition in the world, with an enormous <a href="https://www.ebu.ch/news/2021/05/183-million-viewers-welcome-back-eurovision-song-contest-as-over-half-of-young-audiences-tune-in">audience of</a> <a href="https://eurovision.tv/story/nearly-200-million-people-watch-eurovision-2015">roughly 200 million</a> people. Will Farrell’s 2020 Eurovision spoof “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8580274/">Story of Fire Saga</a>” and a recent NBC spinoff of the actual event, the <a href="https://www.nbc.com/american-song-contest">American Song Contest</a>, hosted by Snoop Dogg and Kelly Clarkson, have piqued interest in the U.S.</p>
<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/playlist/2BLemiY2Mpc4DfTgFGoT7w?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="380" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture"></iframe>
<p>Over the years, Eurovision has expanded from a small group of six Western European nations to over 40 competitors from all over Europe, plus Israel and Australia. </p>
<p>It has grown roughly in tandem with other European and European-focused organizations, such as <a href="https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/history-eu_en">the European Union</a> and the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/nato">North Atlantic Treaty Organization</a>. Like those economic and strategic blocs, Eurovision expanded into the Mediterranean in the 1960s and ‘70s, and to Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Over the decades, <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9781137367983">the contest has pushed and readjusted the boundaries of “Europe,” both geographically and ideologically</a>. </p>
<h2>Knowing me, knowing EU</h2>
<p>Eurovision’s definition of Europe’s geographical boundaries may not be intuitive for many viewers. The European Broadcasting Union follows the <a href="https://www.itu.int/en/history/Pages/PlenipotentiaryConferences.aspx">1932 Madrid conference of the International Radiotelegraph Union</a>, which set the eastern and southern boundaries of the “European Region” at the 40th meridian east and the 30th parallel north, “so as to include the Western part of the U.S.S.R. and the territories bordering the Mediterranean.” </p>
<p>Israel and indeed all countries bordering on the Mediterranean are thereby eligible to participate. Adjustments were made in 2007 on those boundaries to allow the nations of the Caucasus to participate. </p>
<p>Australia’s inclusion is a different matter, going back to 2015, when the European Broadcasting Union <a href="https://eurovision.tv/story/australia-to-compete-in-the-2015-eurovision-song-contest">invited the country</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-20058-9?noAccess=true">on the basis of its unusually strong fan base</a>, to join for a celebration of the 60th anniversary of the competition. The Australians arrived with such energy and enthusiasm that they’ve stayed ever since.</p>
<p>The ever-increasing number of participating countries has expanded and stretched the understanding of which countries belong to Europe as a cultural entity. </p>
<p>More complex and nuanced is the ideological and political meaning of “Europe.” The European Broadcasting Union’s stated “<a href="https://www.ebu.ch/files/live/sites/ebu/files/Publications/EBU-Empowering-Society_EN.pdf">core values</a>” include democracy, pluralism, diversity, inclusion and freedom of expression.</p>
<p>But those values have at times rubbed up against the political realities of countries within the geographical boundaries of Europe. </p>
<p>When <a href="https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news-franco-s-eurovision-47020/">Spain hosted the contest in 1969</a>, Austria boycotted on account of Spanish dictator Gen. Francisco Franco’s fascist politics. Spain hosted because it had won the year before with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYvhZOq10L8&t=2s">Massiel’s “La La La”</a>; the winning nation has usually hosted the following year’s competition since 1958. </p>
<h2>Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! a song without politics</h2>
<p>The European Broadcasting Union tries to hold to the ideal of a purely musical competition without political overtones, but some countries have tried to insert sly political critiques into their entries. </p>
<p>In 2009, Georgia attempted to protest Russia’s 2008 invasion of its country with the song “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV1_s73fI-U">We Don’t Want to Put In</a>” – a play on the then-Russian Prime Minister’s name. But organizers <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20090310-georgia-cannot-perform-put-eurovision--0">rejected the song</a> as too obviously political. </p>
<p>On the other side of the political spectrum, the European Broadcasting Union <a href="https://metro.co.uk/2021/03/11/belarus-eurovision-entry-galasy-zmesta-face-disqualification-over-lyrics-14228006/">rejected Belarus’ 2021 entry</a>, “Ya Nauchu Tebya (I’ll Teach You)” by the band Galasy ZMesta, for its overt condemnation of that country’s pro-democracy protesters. </p>
<p>In recent years, <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315097732-3/eurovision-50-post-wall-post-stonewall-robert-deam-tobin">the contest’s strong association with the LGBTQ community</a> has seen a backlash from conservative governments. Turkey’s departure from the contest in 2013 came as its interest in joining the European Union waned. While Turkey had multiple reasons for leaving, the head of Turkish Radio and Television objected specifically to the prominence of queer performers like Austria’s Conchita Wurst, who won in 2014 with “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaolVEJEjV4">Rise like a Phoenix</a>” as a gay bearded drag queen. In 2020, Hungary also withdrew from the competition; Andras Benscik, a commentator on a pro-government television station, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/hungary-eurovision-song-contest-gay-homophobia-lgbt-viktor-orban-a9221321.html">likened the contest</a> to a “homosexual flotilla.”</p>
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<h2>The winner takes it all</h2>
<p>Success in the Eurovision Song Contest has often come as countries move toward the liberal, inclusive, pluralistic, democratic ideals of Europe. Spain’s victories in the late 1960s, for example, preceded the relative loosening of societal restrictions in the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Spain/Francos-Spain-1939-75">final years of the Franco era</a>. Turkey’s <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/turkey-wins-eurovision-song-contest/a-877588">victory in 2003</a> came at the height of that country’s campaign to join the European Union. </p>
<p>Most notably, the countries of Eastern Europe, which started competing in the 1990s, embraced the contest as symbol of Western freedom. After Estonia became the <a href="https://www.billboard.com/music/music-news/estonias-everybody-erupts-at-eurovision-79751/">first former Soviet Republic to win</a> in 2001, Prime Minister Mart Laar <a href="http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2050588,00.html">announced</a>, “We are no longer knocking at Europe’s door. We are walking through it singing.”</p>
<p>Ukraine fits into this pattern perfectly. Entering the competition in 2003, it won the very next year in 2004 with Ruslana’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIDz8lIeVYA">fiery leather-clad performances of “Wild Dances</a>.” In 2005, Ukraine sent GreenJolly, which performed “Razom Nas Bahato (Together We Are Many),” a celebration of the Orange Revolution. More recently, Ukraine was victorious in 2016 with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxS6eKEOdLQ">Jamala’s “1944</a>,” an elegiac meditation on former Russian dictator Josef Stalin’s forced removal of the Tatars from Crimea. </p>
<p>The historical reference allowed Ukraine to circumvent the European Broadcasting Union’s prohibition on politics by claiming to investigate and commemorate an event from the past, while also obviously protesting Russia’s 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea. </p>
<p>Facing Russian aggression once again, it looks like Ukraine has a good chance of winning Eurovision in 2022. According to oddsmakers, as of May 13, 2022, it had a <a href="https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision">60% chance of winning</a>.</p>
<p>Assuming Ukraine does well or even wins, the Song Contest will reconfirm and reestablish the boundaries of liberal Western Europe.</p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140K">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179618/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Deam Tobin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Politics have never been that far away from the Eurovision Song Contest. Since its inception, the annual event has reflected the political culture and geopolitical realities of Europe.Robert Deam Tobin, Henry J. Leir Chair in Language, Literature and Culture, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.