tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/harvard-university-1306/articlesHarvard University2024-03-25T21:15:49Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2246032024-03-25T21:15:49Z2024-03-25T21:15:49ZHow caste discrimination impacts communities in Canada<p>Many perceive caste to be a phenomenon that only exists in India. Yet, it is a part of Canadian society, and an issue that many in South Asian diasporas are contending with. </p>
<p>The late British Columbia-based poet and activist <a href="https://youtu.be/nDn-JBR0YMI">Mohan Lal Karimpuri</a> described caste as a system of high and low, a form of “social, economic, political, religious inequality” that takes away the power of the many and puts it in the hands of the few. It is the hierarchical ranking of people in accordance with an ascriptive identity, associated with family, lineage and hereditary occupation. </p>
<p>Those who are Dalit, like Karimpuri, are among the most marginalized by dominant castes, and historically systematically excluded in social, economic and cultural terms. Dalits are most vulnerable in India where violence and exclusion remain pervasive. In 2022, Amnesty International stated that “<a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/asia-and-the-pacific/south-asia/india/report-india/">hate crimes including violence against Dalits and Adivasis [Indigenous Peoples] were committed with impunity</a>.” </p>
<p>But caste does not only exist in South Asia. In recent years, it has been formally recognized as a potential grounds for discrimination in the United States and Canada in diverse contexts in places like <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1158687243/seattle-becomes-the-first-u-s-city-to-ban-caste-discrimination">Seattle, Wash.</a> and <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/burnaby-council-votes-unanimously-to-include-caste-as-a-protected-category">Burnaby, B.C.</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2180604995628">Toronto District School Board</a>, the <a href="https://www.ohrc.on.ca/en/news_centre/ohrc%E2%80%99s-policy-position-caste-based-discrimination#:%7E:text=The%20OHRC%20takes%20the%20position,other%20grounds%2C%20under%20Ontario's%20Code">Ontario Human Rights Commission</a>, <a href="https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2022/10/13/caste-union-contract-activism/">Harvard University</a> and the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-asia-education-california-discrimination-82963d9c6acdc6862173ab2959fd2a97">University of California, Davis</a> have recognized casteism as a form of discrimination. </p>
<p>In 2023, California lawmakers passed a bill that would explicitly ban caste discrimination in the state. However, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/09/us/california-caste-discrimination-bill-veto/index.html">it was vetoed by Gov. Gavin Newsom</a> who said it was “unnecessary,” arguing that caste discrimination was already banned under existing laws.</p>
<p>To truly understand what caste means and its impact, the stories of those who experience caste discrimination must be heard. All too often, the experiences of those marginalized within the caste system are treated as an addendum or aside to dominant caste narratives, and casteist perspectives persist in the public domain and remain unquestioned. </p>
<h2>Lack of visibility</h2>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Caste in Canada project interview with Rashpal Bharwaj.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In 2020, we initiated the <a href="https://blogs.ubc.ca/annemurphy/research/caste-in-canada/">Caste in Canada project</a> in partnership with Dalit civil society leaders in B.C. The project documented the lives of Canadians of Dalit ancestry through in-depth oral history interviews. We interviewed 19 people from an array of backgrounds impacted by caste. Fourteen of these interviews are now available on the project website.</p>
<p>One recurrent theme in the interviews was the issue of visibility. University student Vipasna Nangal, for example, expressed concern about how many Dalits mask their caste identity in Canada as a way of avoiding stigma. </p>
<p>As she notes, “<a href="https://youtu.be/0agL2hwZyCQ">in order to resist something you have to acknowledge it… and so you can’t have resistance without having visibility</a>.” Caste, therefore, is something that needs to be talked about and not hidden. The limitations of masking caste identity are eloquently addressed in the interview with journalist Meera Estrada. She poignantly describes the pain involved in pretending not to be Dalit and her own personal journey towards <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VNzahJ90Uw">publicly acknowledging her identity</a>. </p>
<p>Participants in the project voiced this as a common concern: that only by making the stories of Dalits more visible and accessible can we create domains for the recognition, and then obliteration, of caste and casteism, and the possibility of moving past caste divisions, for all. </p>
<h2>Challenging the social acceptability of casteism</h2>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Caste in Canada project interview with Vipasna Nangal.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Another important theme was the need to challenge the social acceptability of casteist discourse. Several participants emphasized the pervasiveness of casteist discourses in popular contexts, such as in music, where dominant caste perspectives are celebrated. </p>
<p>Participant Rashpal Singh Bhardwaj, founder of the Ambedkar International Social Reform Organization (AISRO), <a href="https://youtu.be/jd6ZnFMoaLw">described the organization’s work with local radio stations</a> to discourage playing music that celebrates dominant caste identities on the radio. </p>
<p>Caste discrimination is a part of the life experiences of many in Canada, both as a result of experiences in India, but also here in Canada. Participants <a href="https://blogs.ubc.ca/annemurphy/research/caste-in-canada/gurpreet-singh/">Gurpreet Singh</a> and <a href="https://blogs.ubc.ca/annemurphy/research/caste-in-canada/kamaljit/">Kamaljit</a> described how people of South Asian heritage in Canada try to discover each other’s caste backgrounds — and the exclusion this entails.</p>
<p>It is, in short, a part of Canadian society, working on multiple levels and complicating our understanding of diversity in the Canadian context. </p>
<h2>Tackling caste</h2>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Caste in Canada project interview with Mohan Lal Karimpuri.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Given that caste is a continuing problem both in India and abroad, it is no surprise that Dalit Canadians have organized extensively to address discrimination. In B.C. there are several organizations, such as our project partner, the <a href="https://www.chetna.ca/">Chetna (“Awareness”) Association of Canada</a>, represented in our interviews by its executive director, <a href="https://blogs.ubc.ca/annemurphy/research/caste-in-canada/jai-birdi/">Jai Birdi</a> — who played a key role in the project, and speaks in his interview about how to respond to caste discrimination with <a href="https://youtu.be/0tmGGiok3_8">power and resilience</a> — and <a href="https://blogs.ubc.ca/annemurphy/research/caste-in-canada/surjit-manjit-bains/">Manjit and Surjit Bains</a>, Ambedkarite Buddhist activists.</p>
<p>Other important organizations include AISRO and its members <a href="https://blogs.ubc.ca/annemurphy/research/caste-in-canada/rashpal-bhardwaj/">Rashpal Singh Bhardwaj</a>, <a href="https://blogs.ubc.ca/annemurphy/research/caste-in-canada/jogender-banger/">Jogender Banger</a>, and <a href="https://blogs.ubc.ca/annemurphy/research/caste-in-canada/kamlesh-ahir/">Kamlesh Ahir</a> whom we interviewed for the project. There is also the <a href="https://www.aicscanada.ca/">Ambedkarite International Co-ordination Society</a>, represented in the project by <a href="https://blogs.ubc.ca/annemurphy/research/caste-in-canada/param-kainth/">Param Kainth</a>, who also speaks eloquently about the importance of the teachings of the Buddha for Dalits. </p>
<p>As the titles of these organizations make clear, they are inspired by India’s towering leader and architect of the Indian constitution, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Bhimrao-Ramji-Ambedkar">B.R. Ambedkar</a>, who campaigned for the rights of South Asia’s diverse Dalit communities. His life and activism provide the model for millions of Dalits around the world as they seek to remake the world without caste. With the Caste in Canada project, we work with our Dalit colleagues to do the same in Canada.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224603/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Murphy and Suraj Yengde received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, with additional support from an anonymous donor to the Department of History at the University of British Columbia, in support of the "Caste in Canada" project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>.</span></em></p>Casteism is commonly seen as a form of discrimination limited to South Asia. However, diaspora communities in Canada are also grappling with issues of caste.Anne Murphy, Associate Professor, Department of History, University of British ColumbiaSuraj Yengde, Postdoc, Harvard Kennedy School | Associate, Department of African and African American Studies, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200362024-03-18T12:31:28Z2024-03-18T12:31:28ZAI vs. elections: 4 essential reads about the threat of high-tech deception in politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582204/original/file-20240315-28-p5czjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4977%2C6250&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Like it or not, AI is already playing a role in the 2024 presidential election.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/android-celebrating-4th-july-royalty-free-image/499467267?phrase=Robot+Uncle+Sam">kirstypargeter/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s official. Joe Biden and Donald Trump have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/13/few-voters-decide-trump-biden-nominations/">secured the necessary delegates</a> to be their parties’ nominees for president in the 2024 election. Barring unforeseen events, the two will be formally nominated at the party conventions this summer and face off at the ballot box on Nov. 5. </p>
<p>It’s a safe bet that, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-tech-firms-have-tried-to-stop-disinformation-and-voter-intimidation-and-come-up-short-148771">in recent elections</a>, this one will play out largely online and feature a potent blend of news and disinformation delivered over social media. New this year are powerful generative artificial intelligence tools such as <a href="https://openai.com/chatgpt">ChatGPT</a> and <a href="https://openai.com/sora">Sora</a> that make it easier to “<a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=4040800">flood the zone</a>” with propaganda and disinformation and produce convincing deepfakes: words coming from the mouths of politicians that they did not actually say and events replaying before our eyes that did not actually happen.</p>
<p>The result is an increased likelihood of voters being deceived and, perhaps as worrisome, a growing sense that <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378236203_Profiling_the_Dynamics_of_Trust_Distrust_in_Social_Media_A_Survey_Study">you can’t trust anything you see online</a>. Trump is already taking advantage of the so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055423001454">liar’s dividend</a>, the opportunity to discount your actual words and deeds as deepfakes. Trump implied on his Truth Social platform on March 12, 2024, that real videos of him shown by Democratic House members were <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/13/trump-video-ai-truth-social/">produced or altered using artificial intelligence</a>.</p>
<p>The Conversation has been covering the latest developments in artificial intelligence that have the potential to undermine democracy. The following is a roundup of some of those articles from our archive. </p>
<h2>1. Fake events</h2>
<p>The ability to use AI to make convincing fakes is particularly troublesome for producing false evidence of events that never happened. Rochester Institute of Technology computer security researcher <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UxGWcUYAAAAJ&hl=en">Christopher Schwartz</a> has dubbed these <a href="https://theconversation.com/events-that-never-happened-could-influence-the-2024-presidential-election-a-cybersecurity-researcher-explains-situation-deepfakes-206034">situation deepfakes</a>.</p>
<p>“The basic idea and technology of a situation deepfake are the same as with any other deepfake, but with a bolder ambition: to manipulate a real event or invent one from thin air,” he wrote.</p>
<p>Situation deepfakes could be used to boost or undermine a candidate or suppress voter turnout. If you encounter reports on social media of events that are surprising or extraordinary, try to learn more about them from reliable sources, such as fact-checked news reports, peer-reviewed academic articles or interviews with credentialed experts, Schwartz said. Also, recognize that deepfakes can take advantage of what you are inclined to believe.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/events-that-never-happened-could-influence-the-2024-presidential-election-a-cybersecurity-researcher-explains-situation-deepfakes-206034">Events that never happened could influence the 2024 presidential election – a cybersecurity researcher explains situation deepfakes</a>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How AI puts disinformation on steroids.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>2. Russia, China and Iran take aim</h2>
<p>From the question of what AI-generated disinformation can do follows the question of who has been wielding it. Today’s AI tools put the capacity to produce disinformation in reach for most people, but of particular concern are <a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-disinformation-is-a-threat-to-elections-learning-to-spot-russian-chinese-and-iranian-meddling-in-other-countries-can-help-the-us-prepare-for-2024-214358">nations that are adversaries</a> of the United States and other democracies. In particular, Russia, China and Iran have extensive experience with disinformation campaigns and technology.</p>
<p>“There’s a lot more to running a disinformation campaign than generating content,” wrote security expert and Harvard Kennedy School lecturer <a href="https://www.schneier.com/">Bruce Schneier</a>. “The hard part is distribution. A propagandist needs a series of fake accounts on which to post, and others to boost it into the mainstream where it can go viral.”</p>
<p>Russia and China have a history of testing disinformation campaigns on smaller countries, according to Schneier. “Countering new disinformation campaigns requires being able to recognize them, and recognizing them requires looking for and cataloging them now,” he wrote.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ai-disinformation-is-a-threat-to-elections-learning-to-spot-russian-chinese-and-iranian-meddling-in-other-countries-can-help-the-us-prepare-for-2024-214358">AI disinformation is a threat to elections − learning to spot Russian, Chinese and Iranian meddling in other countries can help the US prepare for 2024</a>
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<h2>3. Healthy skepticism</h2>
<p>But it doesn’t require the resources of shadowy intelligence services in powerful nations to make headlines, as the New Hampshire <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ai-robocall-biden-new-hampshire-primary-2024-f94aa2d7f835ccc3cc254a90cd481a99">fake Biden robocall</a> produced and disseminated by two individuals and aimed at dissuading some voters illustrates. That episode prompted the Federal Communications Commission to <a href="https://theconversation.com/fcc-bans-robocalls-using-deepfake-voice-clones-but-ai-generated-disinformation-still-looms-over-elections-223160">ban robocalls that use voices generated</a> by artificial intelligence. </p>
<p>AI-powered disinformation campaigns are difficult to counter because they can be delivered over different channels, including robocalls, social media, email, text message and websites, which complicates the digital forensics of tracking down the sources of the disinformation, wrote <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=yu4Ew7gAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Joan Donovan</a>, a media and disinformation scholar at Boston University.</p>
<p>“In many ways, AI-enhanced disinformation such as the New Hampshire robocall poses the same problems as every other form of disinformation,” Donovan wrote. “People who use AI to disrupt elections are likely to do what they can to hide their tracks, which is why it’s necessary for the public to remain skeptical about claims that do not come from verified sources, such as local TV news or social media accounts of reputable news organizations.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fcc-bans-robocalls-using-deepfake-voice-clones-but-ai-generated-disinformation-still-looms-over-elections-223160">FCC bans robocalls using deepfake voice clones − but AI-generated disinformation still looms over elections</a>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">How to spot AI-generated images.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>4. A new kind of political machine</h2>
<p>AI-powered disinformation campaigns are also difficult to counter because they can include bots – automated social media accounts that pose as real people – and can include <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">online interactions tailored to individuals</a>, potentially over the course of an election and potentially with millions of people.</p>
<p>Harvard political scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3Bl9cn8AAAAJ&hl=en">Archon Fung</a> and legal scholar <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=LxG5YWcAAAAJ&hl=en">Lawrence Lessig</a> described these capabilities and laid out a hypothetical scenario of national political campaigns wielding these powerful tools.</p>
<p>Attempts to block these machines could run afoul of the free speech protections of the First Amendment, according to Fung and Lessig. “One constitutionally safer, if smaller, step, already adopted in part by European internet regulators and in California, is to prohibit bots from passing themselves off as people,” they wrote. “For example, regulation might require that campaign messages come with disclaimers when the content they contain is generated by machines rather than humans.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ai-could-take-over-elections-and-undermine-democracy-206051">How AI could take over elections – and undermine democracy</a>
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<p><em>This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p>
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/election-2024-disinformation-151606">This article is part of Disinformation 2024:</a></strong> a series examining the science, technology and politics of deception in elections.</em></p>
<p><em>You may also be interested in:</em></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/disinformation-is-rampant-on-social-media-a-social-psychologist-explains-the-tactics-used-against-you-216598">Disinformation is rampant on social media – a social psychologist explains the tactics used against you</a></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/misinformation-disinformation-and-hoaxes-whats-the-difference-158491">Misinformation, disinformation and hoaxes: What’s the difference?</a></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/disinformation-campaigns-are-murky-blends-of-truth-lies-and-sincere-beliefs-lessons-from-the-pandemic-140677">Disinformation campaigns are murky blends of truth, lies and sincere beliefs – lessons from the pandemic</a></p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Using disinformation to sway elections is nothing new. Powerful new AI tools, however, threaten to give the deceptions unprecedented reach.Eric Smalley, Science + Technology EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2255322024-03-15T18:07:15Z2024-03-15T18:07:15ZWhy Fani Willis was allowed to stay on as prosecutor of criminal case against Trump in Georgia – and what happens next<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581365/original/file-20240312-24-duwdbt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis listens to final arguments in her disqualification hearing on March 1, 2024, in Atlanta, Ga. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fulton-county-district-attorney-fani-willis-arrives-for-the-news-photo/2043988459?adppopup=true">Alex Slitz/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In <a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">an unexpected decision</a>, a Georgia judge ruled that the <a href="https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/08/CRIMINAL-INDICTMENT-Trump-Fulton-County-GA.pdf">conspiracy to commit election intereference</a> case against Donald Trump and several associates <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fani-willis-trump-georgia-rcna139810">can continue</a> if Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis either steps aside from the case or fires her former boyfriend, whom she hired as special prosecutor. </p>
<p>Within hours of the decision, the special prosecutor, Nathan Wade, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/15/trump-georgia-election-case-can-proceed-if-da-or-prosecutor-removes-themselves.html">stepped down</a>. </p>
<p>The ruling by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/12/judge-scott-mcafee-trump-georgia-case-fani-willis/">Fulton County Superior Judge Scott McAfee</a> puts an end to a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/7272229e-032d-4bb2-aec2-afe99ba7ae22.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_4">January 2023 motion</a> to have Willis removed from the case for allegedly having <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24401519-willis-wade-response">a personal financial stake</a> in the case by “benefiting from her romantic relationship” with Wade through the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/19/fani-willis-travel-paid-nathan-wade-trump-georgia-case">lavish vacations</a> they took together. </p>
<p>Though <a href="https://apnews.com/article/fani-willis-nathan-wade-trump-indictment-493165c4614761d4b965923696134c09">Willis acknowledged</a> “a personal relationship,” she claimed their relationship started after <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/02/02/who-is-nathan-wade-trump-prosecutor-at-center-of-fani-willis-debacle/?sh=e8251b85a76b">Wade was hired</a> to prosecute Trump.</p>
<p>In his ruling, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/mar/15/biden-trump-election-campaign-supreme-court-latest-updates">McAfee wrote</a> that Willis showed a “<a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">tremendous lapse in judgment</a>” regardless of when the relationship began.</p>
<p>In the case against Trump, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-codefendants-guilty-pleas-georgia-criminal-case-2020-election/">four out of the 19</a> people charged have already pleaded guilty. Trump and the rest of the defendants have pleaded not guilty.</p>
<p>The Conversation asked criminal law scholar <a href="https://hls.harvard.edu/faculty/ronald-s-sullivan/">Ronald Sullivan</a> to make sense of the ruling that allows Willis to continue her prosecution of Trump.</p>
<h2>What just happened?</h2>
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<img alt="A middle aged white man wearing a black robe listens to testimony." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581359/original/file-20240312-24-m0cf9m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee listens during a February 2024 hearing to determine whether two prosecutors should be disqualified from Donald Trump’s election interference case in Georgia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/fulton-county-superior-judge-scott-mcafee-looks-on-during-a-news-photo/2006230461?adppopup=true">Alyssa Pointer/Pool via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Judge McAfee entered a mixed ruling that caught most legal observers by surprise. He found that Trump’s defense team did not put forward sufficient evidence to show that Willis had an actual conflict of interest. </p>
<p>To the contrary, McAfee found that the value of Willis’ alleged benefit was less than $15,000 and did not support charges that Willis, who makes over $200,000 a year and was not experiencing any financial hardships, needed or relied on her relationship with Wade. </p>
<p>Though McAfee found <a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">no actual conflict of interest</a>, he did find the appearance of a conflict. That means a reasonable person might believe that Willis’ actions as a prosecutor were compromised by her relationship with Wade. </p>
<p>On this basis, <a href="https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/20240315-order-on-motion-to-disqualify10.pdf">McAfee ruled</a> that the existence of a romantic relationship presents an appearance of a conflict of interest. In order to cure this conflict, either Willis or Wade had to resign. </p>
<p>With Wade’s resignation, Willis will assign a different lawyer to the case. </p>
<h2>What would have happened if the judge ruled against Willis?</h2>
<p>Trump’s case <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-georgia-2020-election-case-what-if-fani-willis-disqualified/">would have been handed over</a> to a state entity called the <a href="https://pacga.org/">Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia</a>. The agency would then have appointed another Georgia district attorney’s office to take up the prosecution.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black man dressed in a dark suit sits at a table with his hands held together." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/581364/original/file-20240312-24-ql2deq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Special prosecutor Nathan Wade appears in court during his disqualification hearing on March 1, 2024, in Atlanta, Ga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/special-prosecutor-nathan-wade-sits-in-court-during-a-news-photo/2043986656?adppopup=true">Alex Slitz/Pool via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In normal cases, Georgia lawyers report that this is a long and slow process. Given the magnitude of the Trump case, this process would have taken even longer. Significantly, the new prosecutor would not be bound by any decisions made by Willis’ office and could have even declined to prosecute the case altogether.</p>
<h2>What’s the takeaway from the judge’s decision against Willis?</h2>
<p>The judge essentially split the baby. By finding there is no actual conflict of interest, Willis is permitted to stay in the case. But Wade was forced to quit because of the appearance of a conflict.</p>
<p><iframe id="tYrfU" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tYrfU/12/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The judge landed a few judicial jabs regarding Willis’ behavior that the Trump team will use to undermine the public’s faith in the district attorney’s office.</p>
<p>In a line that the Trump team surely will repeat, the <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24401519-willis-wade-response">judge wrote</a> that an “odor of mendacity” exists with respect to Willis and the prosecution’s witnesses.</p>
<h2>Where does the ruling leave Willis?</h2>
<p>Prosecutors’ offices trade on the trust that juries give to the office. If that trust is eroded, the impact is often felt in “not guilty” trial verdicts when juries don’t trust what prosecutors say. Although Willis dodged a bullet by being able to stay in the case, she will have to manage the harm to her reputation. </p>
<h2>What is the status of Trump’s case?</h2>
<p>The case will proceed as before. Willis will likely appoint a senior attorney from within her office to lead the case, and that lawyer will pick up where Wade left the case.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated March 15, 2024, to reflect Nathan Wade’s resignation.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225532/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ronald S. Sullivan Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Though a Georgia judge strongly criticized the decision-making of Fani Willis, he did not kick her off the case against Donald Trump and his efforts to overthrow the 2020 presidential election.Ronald S. Sullivan Jr., Professor of Law, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249302024-03-07T13:31:57Z2024-03-07T13:31:57ZI watched Hungary’s democracy dissolve into authoritarianism as a member of parliament − and I see troubling parallels in Trumpism and its appeal to workers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580025/original/file-20240305-20-3hi9y2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C10%2C3431%2C2478&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Donald Trump shakes hands with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during a meeting in the Oval Office on May 13, 2019, in Washington, D.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-shakes-hands-with-hungarian-prime-news-photo/1148899659?adppopup=true">Mark Wilson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarian-pm-orban-meet-trump-march-8-florida-2024-03-04/">Hungarian leader</a> <a href="https://www.gmfus.org/news/when-people-elect-strongman-rule">and strongman Viktor Orbán</a>, who presided over the radical decline of democracy in his country, is scheduled to meet with former President Donald Trump, now the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort on March 8, 2024.</p>
<p>Orbán has been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67832416">Hungary’s prime minister</a> since 2010. Under his leadership, the country became the first nondemocracy in the European Union – an “<a href="https://budapestbeacon.com/full-text-of-viktor-orbans-speech-at-baile-tusnad-tusnadfurdo-of-26-july-2014/">illiberal state</a>,” as Orbán proudly declared. Trump expressed his admiration for Orbán and his authoritarian moves during their meeting at the White House in 2019.</p>
<p>“You’re respected all over Europe. Probably, like me, a little bit controversial, but that’s OK,” <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/13/trump-latest-viktor-orban-hungary-prime-minister-white-house">Trump said</a>. “You’ve done a good job and you’ve kept your country safe.”</p>
<p>I’ve followed their mutual romance with illiberalism for a long time. Although I am now in the U.S. <a href="https://ces.fas.harvard.edu/people/scheiring-gabor">as an academic</a>, I was <a href="https://www.gaborscheiring.com/">elected to the Hungarian Parliament</a> in 2010 when Orbán’s rule started.</p>
<p>As the U.S. braces for a potential second Trump presidency, Americans may rightly wonder: Would Trump’s America mirror Orbán’s Hungary in its slide toward authoritarianism?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three people standing before a crowd holding stop signs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580208/original/file-20240306-18-11nm7c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Member of Parliament Gábor Scheiring, right, with two colleagues, all wearing signs that say ‘Enough,’ chained themselves to the Parliament building in a December 2011 protest against the increasing autocracy of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo Akos Stiller</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Authoritarianism from within</h2>
<p>I can still feel the pleasant spring breeze on my skin as I walked up the National Assembly’s stairs in my freshly bought suit. As newly elected members of Parliament, my Green Party colleagues and I stepped into our roles with high hopes and detailed plans to fix Hungary’s ailing economy and move toward sustainability.</p>
<p>I also remember the cold winter day a year and half later when we <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL6E7NN14R/">chained ourselves to the parliament building</a>. It was a demonstration against the hollowing of parliamentary work and democratic backsliding under Orbán’s rule.</p>
<p>If the parliament is the political home of democracy, Hungary’s was vacant by 2012.</p>
<p>Orbán and his party in power hijacked democratic institutions. The nationwide right-wing media network is a crucial component of this authoritarian power. As the Voice of America <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/hungarian-prime-minister-shows-why-american-right-embraces-him/6687500.html">reported in 2022</a>, Orbán’s allies “have created a pervasive conservative media ecosystem that dominates the airwaves and generally echoes the positions of the Orbán government.” </p>
<p>His government gerrymandered local districts and allowed voters to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/world/europe/hungary-viktor-orban-election.html">register outside their home districts</a>, both aimed at favoring Orbán and his party. The government also staffed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1X8244/">the public prosecutor’s office with loyalists</a>, ensuring that any misconduct by those in power stays hidden. </p>
<p>Republicans in the U.S. have followed a similar trajectory with their support of Trump as his rhetoric <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-democracy-election-2024-f2f824f056ae9f81f4e688fe590f41b4">grows more authoritarian</a>. Trump says if he wins the election, he wants to be <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-hannity-dictator-authoritarian-presidential-election-f27e7e9d7c13fabbe3ae7dd7f1235c72">“a dictator” for one day</a>. A recent poll shows that <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4453457-74-percent-of-republicans-say-its-fine-for-trump-to-be-dictator-for-a-day/">74% of Republicans surveyed</a> said it would be a good idea for Trump to “be a dictator only on the first day of his second term.”</p>
<p>Orbán has spent years <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/world/europe/hungary-viktor-orban-judges.html">undermining the independence of Hungary’s judiciary</a>, ensuring its rulings are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/world/europe/hungary-courts.html">friendly to his government and allies</a>. While still an independent institution, the U.S. Supreme Court – with <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-14th-amendment-immunity-supreme-court-d3f001f66c5c3e85302b8772753ed769">three Trump-nominated justices</a> – has become a pillar of Trumpism, handing down rulings overturning the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf">constitutional right to abortion</a> and <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-111_j4el.pdf">limiting civil rights</a>.</p>
<p>Fox, OANN, and other right-wing media ensure that large parts of America see <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/05/1229295278/the-fracturing-and-expansion-of-conservative-media-ahead-of-the-presidential-ele">the world through a Trumpian lens</a>.</p>
<p>Authoritarian populists tilt the democratic playing field to favor themselves and their personal and political interests. Subverting democracy from the inside without violent repression allows leaders like Orbán and Trump to pretend they are democratic. This authoritarianism from within creates chokepoints, where the opposition isn’t crushed, but it has a hard time breathing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A demonstrator holding a placard that in Hungarian says 'Down with the Fascist government.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/580035/original/file-20240305-24-ljckit.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A placard reads ‘Down with the Fascist government’ in front of the Parliament building in Budapest on June 14, 2021, during a demonstration against the Hungarian government’s draft bill seeking to ban the ‘promotion’ of homosexuality and sex changes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/participant-holds-a-placard-reading-down-with-the-fascist-news-photo/1233454607?adppopup=true">Gergely Besenyei/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>No democracy with division</h2>
<p>How can strongmen get away with these antidemocratic politics? If there is one lesson from Hungary, it is this: Democracy is not sustainable in a divided society where many are left behind economically.</p>
<p>The real power of authoritarian populists like Trump and Orban lies not in the institutions they hijack but in the novel electoral support coalition they create.</p>
<p>They bring together two types of supporters. Some hardcore, authoritarian-right voters are motivated by bigotry and hatred rooted in their fear of globalization’s cultural threats. However, the most successful right-wing populist forces <a href="https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/19110-20220517.pdf">integrate an outer layer of primarily working-class voters</a> hurt by globalization’s economic threats.</p>
<p>Throughout the 20th century, Democrats in the U.S. and left-of-center parties in Europe provided a political home for those fearing economic insecurity. This fostered a political system that engendered equality and a healthy social fabric, giving people reason to care for liberal democratic institutions. </p>
<p>However, when the economy fails to deliver, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2010/04/07/hungary-dissatisfied-with-democracy-but-not-its-ideals/">disillusionment with capitalism</a> morphs into an apathy toward liberal democracy.</p>
<p>If the liberal center appears uncaring, authoritarian populists can mobilize voters against both the cultural and economic <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123424000024">threats posed by globalization</a>.</p>
<p>In Hungary, the first signs of authoritarianism appeared in economically left-behind rural areas and provincial small and medium towns well before Orbán’s 2010 victory. While these provincial towns suffered from increasing mortality, deindustrialization and income loss, the parties of the liberal center continued to sing hymns about the benefits of globalization, detached from the everyday experience of economic insecurity. </p>
<p>As I showed in my book, neglecting this suffering was the democratic center’s <a href="https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/hybrid-authoritarianism/">politically lethal failure</a>.</p>
<p>By today, Hungary’s liberal and left-of-center parties have retreated to the biggest cities, leaving their former provincial political strongholds up for grabs for the radical right. The same is taking place in the U.S., with the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/04/new-republican-party-working-class-coalition-00122822">Republicans becoming a party of the working class</a> and nonmetropolitan America.</p>
<p>The success of authoritarian populism in Hungary might seem disheartening. However, there is a silver lining: Those committed to democracy in the U.S. still have time to learn from Hungary’s mistakes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I was a Member of the Hungarian Parliament for the Greens from 2010 to 2014.</span></em></p>One of Donald Trump’s favorite politicians is the Hungarian authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán. Would a country led again by Trump embrace similar antidemocratic politics?Gábor Scheiring, Fellow, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200142024-03-01T13:32:30Z2024-03-01T13:32:30ZIs the United States overestimating China’s power?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577660/original/file-20240223-28-5lgbn4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C229%2C4144%2C2586&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Made it, Mao! Top of the World?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/dominate-the-world-royalty-free-illustration/1456554749?phrase=china+power&adppopup=true">DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Which country is the greatest threat to the United States? The answer, according to a large proportion of Americans, is clear: China. </p>
<p>Half of all Americans responding to a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/07/27/americans-name-china-as-the-country-posing-the-greatest-threat-to-the-us/">mid-2023 survey</a> from the Pew Research Center cited China as the biggest risk to the U.S., with Russia trailing in second with 17%. Other surveys, such as from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, <a href="https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-feel-more-threat-china-now-past-three-decades">show similar findings</a>.</p>
<p>Senior figures in recent U.S. administrations appear to agree with this assessment. In 2020, John Ratcliffe, director of national intelligence under President Donald Trump, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-national-security-threat-no-1-11607019599">wrote that</a> Beijing “intends to dominate the U.S. and the rest of the planet economically, militarily and technologically.”</p>
<p>The White House’s current National Defense Strategy is not so alarmist, <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF">referring to China</a> as the U.S.’s “pacing challenge” – a reference that, <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5038077/pacing-challenge">in the words</a> of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, apparently means China has “the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the power to do so.” </p>
<p>As someone who has <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/staff/dan-murphy">followed China</a> for over a quarter century, I believe that many observers have overestimated the country’s apparent power. Recent <a href="https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/new-book-details-chinas-economic-rise-and-now-its-fall">challenges to China’s economy</a> have led some people to reevaluate just how powerful China is. But hurdles to the growth of Chinese power extend far beyond the economic sector – and failing to acknowledge this reality may distort how policymakers and the public view the shift of geopolitical gravity in what was once called “<a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/10/27/the-chinese-century-is-well-under-way">the Chinese century</a>.”</p>
<p>In overestimating China’s comprehensive power, the U.S. risks misallocating resources and attention, directing them toward a threat that is not as imminent as one might otherwise assume.</p>
<p>Let me be clear: I’m not suggesting that China is weak or about to collapse. Nor am I making an argument about China’s intentions. But rather, it is time to right-size the American understanding of the country’s comprehensive power. This process includes acknowledging both China’s tremendous accomplishments and its significant challenges. Doing so is, I believe, mission critical as the United States and China seek to put a floor underneath a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/opinion/balloon-china-taiwan-biden.html">badly damaged bilateral relationship</a>.</p>
<h2>Headline numbers</h2>
<p>Why have so many people misjudged China’s power? </p>
<p>One key reason for this misconception is that from a distance, China does indeed appear to be an unstoppable juggernaut. The high-level <a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/us-china-relations-interview-graham-allison">numbers bedazzle observers</a>: Beijing commands the world’s <a href="https://chinapower.csis.org/tracker/china-gdp/#:%7E:text=China%27s%20nominal%20GDP%20is%20the,States%20by%20a%20considerable%20margin.">largest or second-largest</a> economy depending on the type of measurement; it has a rapidly growing <a href="https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/the-military-balance/2024/editors-introduction/">military budget</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2021/08/07/us-universities-fall-behind-china-in-production-of-stem-phds/?sh=5d2ae6084606">sky-high numbers</a> of graduates in engineering and math; and oversees huge infrastructure projects – laying down nearly 20,000 miles of <a href="http://eu.china-mission.gov.cn/eng/zywj/CSTNENG/202209/P020220915789898685371.pdf">high-speed rail tracks</a> in less than a dozen years and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-20/beijing-replaces-a-huge-highway-overpass-in-only-43-hours">building bridges at record pace</a>. </p>
<p>But these eye-catching metrics don’t tell a complete story. Look under the hood and you’ll see that China faces a raft of intractable difficulties.</p>
<p>The Chinese economy, which until recently was thought of as unstoppable, is beginning to falter due to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/15/economy/deflation-explainer-us-china-economy/index.html">deflation</a>, a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/china-s-debt-to-gdp-ratio-rises-to-fresh-record-of-286-1">growing debt-to-gross domestic product ratio</a> and the impact of a <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3253325/restructuring-specialists-boost-hong-kong-staff-china-property-crisis-stokes-demand">real estate crisis</a>. </p>
<h2>China’s other challenges</h2>
<p>And it isn’t only China’s economy that has been overestimated.</p>
<p>While Beijing has put in considerable effort building its soft power and sending its leadership around the world, China enjoys <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/07/27/chinas-approach-to-foreign-policy-gets-largely-negative-reviews-in-24-country-survey/">fewer friends</a> than one might expect, even with its willing trade partners. North Korea, Pakistan, Cambodia and Russia may count China as an important ally, but these relationships are not, I would argue, nearly as strong as those enjoyed by the United States globally. Even in the Asia-Pacific region there is a strong argument to say Washington enjoys greater sway, considering the especially close ties with <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3498451/japan-south-korea-us-strengthen-trilateral-cooperation/">allies Japan, South Korea</a> <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-australia-relationship">and Australia</a>. </p>
<p>Even though Chinese citizens report <a href="https://ash.harvard.edu/news/ash-center-researchers-release-landmark-chinese-public-opinion-study">broad support</a> for the Communist Party, Beijing’s <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/how-beijing-accidentally-ended-the-zero-covid-policy/">capricious COVID-19 policies</a> paired with an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/04/chinas-xi-jinping-unwilling-to-accept-western-covid-vaccines-says-us-intelligence-chief">unwillingness to use foreign-made vaccines</a> have dented perceptions of government effectiveness. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A seated man sits at. desk while another man is seen on a TV screen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579043/original/file-20240229-16-cm5y8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579043/original/file-20240229-16-cm5y8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579043/original/file-20240229-16-cm5y8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579043/original/file-20240229-16-cm5y8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579043/original/file-20240229-16-cm5y8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579043/original/file-20240229-16-cm5y8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579043/original/file-20240229-16-cm5y8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">President Joe Biden participates in a virtual meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-participates-in-a-virtual-meeting-with-news-photo/1353512956?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Further, China’s population is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/business/china-birth-rate.html">aging and unbalanced</a>. In 2016, the country of 1.4 billion saw about 18 million births; in 2023, that number dropped to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/business/china-birth-rate-2023.html">about 9 million</a>. This alarming fall is not only in line with trends toward a shrinking working-age population, but also perhaps <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/28/behind-china-collapse-birth-marriage-rates/">indicative of pessimism</a> among Chinese citizens about the country’s future.</p>
<p>And at times, the actions of the Chinese government read like an implicit admission that the domestic situation is not all that rosy. For example, I take it as a sign of concern over systemic risk that China detained a million or more people, as has happened with the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-xinjiang-uyghurs-muslims-repression-genocide-human-rights">Muslim minority in Xinjiang province</a>. Similarly, China’s policing of its internet suggests <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/study-internet-censorship-reveals-deepest-fears-chinas-government">concerns over</a> collective action by its citizens. </p>
<p>The sweeping anti-corruption campaign Beijing has <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-china-business-covid-economy-6618e65ef6148e0c75fce4dc2a28011f#">embarked on</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sweeping-chinese-military-purge-exposes-weakness-could-widen-2023-12-30/">purges of the country’s military</a> and the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/business/bao-fan-china-banker.html">disappearance</a> of leading business figures all hint at a government seeking to manage significant risk. </p>
<p>I hear many stories from contacts in China about people with money or influence hedging their bets by establishing a foothold outside the country. This aligns with research that has shown that <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/programs/growthpolicy/meg-rithmire-china-global-economy">in recent years</a>, on average as much money leaves China via “irregular means” as for foreign direct investment. </p>
<h2>A three-dimensional view</h2>
<p>The perception of China’s inexorable rise is cultivated by the governing Communist Party, which obsessively seeks to <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/media-censorship-china">manufacture and control narratives</a> in state media and beyond that show it as all-knowing, farsighted and strategic. And perhaps this argument finds a receptive audience in segments of the United States concerned about its own decline.</p>
<p>It would help explain why a recent <a href="https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-feel-more-threat-china-now-past-three-decades">Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey</a> found that about a third of American respondents see the Chinese and American economies as equal and another third see the Chinese economy as stronger. In reality, per capita GDP in the United States is <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CN-US">six times that of China</a>. </p>
<p>Of course, there is plenty of danger in predicting China’s collapse. Undoubtedly, the country has seen huge accomplishments since the People’s Republic of China’s founding in 1949: Hundreds of millions of people <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/01/17/509521619/whos-lifting-chinese-people-out-of-poverty">brought out of poverty</a>, extraordinary economic development and <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN">impressive GDP growth</a> over several decades, and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/21/china-global-influence-takeaways/">growing diplomatic clout</a>. These successes are especially noteworthy given that the People’s Republic of China is less than 75 years old and was in utter turmoil during the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/11/the-cultural-revolution-50-years-on-all-you-need-to-know-about-chinas-political-convulsion">disastrous Cultural Revolution</a> from 1966 to 1976, when intellectuals were sent to the countryside, schools stopped functioning and chaos reigned. In many cases, China’s successes merit emulation and include important lessons for developing and developed countries alike.</p>
<p>China may well be the “pacing challenge” that many in the U.S. believe. But it also faces significant internal challenges that often go under-recognized in evaluating the country’s comprehensive power.</p>
<p>And as the United States and China <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/biden-pushes-for-stable-u-s-relationship-with-china-during-summit-with-xi">seek to steady</a> a rocky relationship, it is imperative that the American public and Washington policymakers see China as fully three-dimensional – not some flat caricature that fits the needs of the moment. Otherwise, there is a risk of fanning the flames of xenophobia and neglecting opportunities for partnership that would benefit the United States.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220014/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dan Murphy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Most Americans see China as the biggest threat to the US. But away from headline economic figures, China has a slew of challenges.Dan Murphy, Executive Director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245792024-02-28T12:40:55Z2024-02-28T12:40:55ZLes avantages des combustibles de cuisson propres atténués dans les villes : résultats obtenus au Ghana, au Cameroun et au Kenya<p>La pollution de l'air domestique due à la cuisson, au chauffage et à l'éclairage avec des combustibles tels que le bois, le charbon de bois et le kérosène pose un problème de santé important au niveau mondial. </p>
<p>Dans le monde, <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2022-who-publishes-new-global-data-on-the-use-of-clean-and-polluting-fuels-for-cooking-by-fuel-type">2 milliards</a> de personnes cuisinent avec des combustibles polluants et sont exposées à des niveaux élevés de pollution de l'air domestique. La plupart de ces personnes vit en Afrique subsaharienne, où elles sont <a href="https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/new-research-could-help-boost-growth-of-clean-cooking-in-sub-saharan-africa/29340#:%7E:text=Approximately%20900%20million%20people%20cook,health%2Ddamaging%20and%20climate%20pollutants">environ 900 millions</a> à cuisiner avec des combustibles polluants.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30197-2/fulltext">Des études</a> ont montré que l'utilisation de combustibles de cuisson plus propres, comme l'électricité, l'éthanol et le gaz de pétrole liquéfié <strong>(GPL)</strong>, réduit l'exposition aux particules fines (PM2,5), un polluant nocif. Mais <a href="https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-021-00756-5">d'autres études</a> ont également montré que l'utilisation de combustibles de cuisson plus propres ne réduit pas nécessairement les niveaux de PM2.5 dans les habitations.</p>
<p>Pour comprendre pourquoi, nos recherches ont porté sur trois communautés qui s'urbanisent rapidement au Cameroun (Mbalmayo), au Ghana (Obuasi) et au Kenya (Eldoret). Nous avons étudié les différences entre les niveaux de polluants atmosphériques selon les types de combustibles de cuisson, ainsi que d'autres facteurs environnementaux. Nous avons mesuré les niveaux de PM2,5 ainsi que le monoxyde de carbone (CO), un autre polluant atmosphérique nocif. </p>
<p>La moitié des ménages qui ont participé à notre étude cuisinaient principalement au GPL, qui est considéré comme un combustible de cuisson plus propre. L'autre moitié cuisinait uniquement avec des combustibles polluants, notamment le bois et le charbon de bois. </p>
<p>Nos résultats ont montré que le type de combustible de cuisson utilisé par les ménages avait effectivement une incidence sur les niveaux de pollution à l'intérieur des habitations. Mais nous avons constaté de grandes disparités entre les trois communautés. Par exemple, il n'y avait guère de différence dans l'exposition moyenne aux PM2,5 entre les utilisateurs de GPL et les utilisateurs de charbon de bois dans le contexte ghanéen. Cependant, dans les communautés kenyane et camerounaise, les niveaux moyens de PM2,5 des femmes étaient beaucoup plus élevés chez celles qui cuisinaient au bois que chez celles qui cuisinaient au GPL. À Eldoret, au Kenya, les femmes cuisinant au charbon de bois étaient également exposées à des niveaux nettement plus élevés que celles cuisinant au GPL. </p>
<p>Nos résultats nous ont permis de conclure que cela pouvait s'expliquer par le fait que des facteurs environnementaux étaient également en jeu, à savoir les niveaux de pollution de l'air à l'extérieur des habitations. <strong>Dans le territoire ghanéen</strong> Dans la région ghanéenne, les niveaux de pollution de l'air extérieur étaient environ deux fois plus élevés que dans les deux autres communautés. Cette différence est probablement due en partie aux <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1352231099002964?via%3Dihub">niveaux accrus</a> de poussière saharienne au Ghana pendant la saison de l’<a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/harmattan">harmattan</a>. </p>
<p>En outre, la plupart des femmes ghanéennes cuisinent généralement à l'extérieur, dans une véranda. Cela augmente leur exposition à la pollution de l'air extérieur. En revanche, les femmes du Kenya et du Cameroun cuisinaient généralement à l'intérieur.</p>
<p>Nous avons également constaté que les femmes, quel que soit le combustible utilisé pour la cuisson, étaient davantage exposées aux PM2,5 si elles vivaient à proximité d'une route très fréquentée (à moins de cinq minutes de marche) et se déplaçaient à l'extérieur pendant la journée. Cela suggère que les émissions dues au trafic représen****tent probablement une part importante de la pollution de l'air que les femmes respirent dans ces zones urbaines. Et les émissions générées par la cuisine pourraient avoir contribué dans une moindre mesure à l'exposition globale aux PM2,5. </p>
<p>Cela pourrait expliquer pourquoi les différences d'exposition aux PM2,5 entre les femmes utilisant des fourneaux à GPL et à charbon de bois dans la communauté ghanéenne étaient minimes, bien que les fourneaux à GPL émettent généralement des niveaux plus faibles de PM2,5. <strong>Ainsi, dans certaines zones…</strong> Il s'ensuit que, dans certaines zones d'urbanisation rapide, la pollution de l'air extérieur diminue probablement la capacité des combustibles de cuisson propres à réduire l'exposition aux PM2,5. </p>
<h2>Prochaines étapes</h2>
<p>Alors que les villes continuent de s'urbaniser et que la population africaine migre de plus en plus vers les villes, les <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01311-2">preuves</a> indiquent que les <strong>niveaux de pollution de l'air locaux</strong> niveaux localisés de pollution de l'air provenant de sources industrielles, de la circulation et de la combustion des déchets sont susceptibles d'augmenter. Cela signifie que les gens seront de plus en plus exposés aux polluants atmosphériques à l'extérieur et que les réductions de l'exposition aux PM2,5 qui se produisent, lorsque les gens <strong>changent les combustibles polluants avec le GPL</strong>passent des combustibles polluants au GPL, peuvent être plus faibles. </p>
<p>Nos résultats montrent que les combustibles de cuisson propres peuvent réduire la pollution de l'air à l'intérieur des habitations. Toutefois, le fait de se concentrer sur la réduction de la pollution intérieure en changeant de combustible de cuisson pourrait n'avoir qu'un effet limité sur l'exposition des personnes aux polluants atmosphériques nocifs. Nos résultats soulignent la nécessité d'élaborer des stratégies visant à réduire les niveaux de pollution de l'air tant à l'intérieur qu'à l'extérieur. Il est possible de réduire les concentrations de PM2,5 à l'extérieur en adoptant des réglementations plus strictes sur les émissions dues au trafic et en limitant ou en éliminant le brûlage des ordures au profit de méthodes moins polluantes pour l'élimination des déchets solides.</p>
<p>Néanmoins, les efforts visant à encourager la transition vers des combustibles de cuisson propres devraient rester une priorité politique importante, en particulier dans les communautés qui sont exposées à des niveaux plus faibles de PM2.5 à l'extérieur. La transition vers des combustibles de cuisson propres peut potentiellement avoir un effet bénéfique plus important sur la santé dans ces contextes. </p>
<p>Il est judicieux d'adopter une approche plus ciblée et de donner la priorité à certaines zones dans le cadre de la campagne en faveur de l'accès à des combustibles de cuisson plus propres. Comme l'a souligné la <a href="https://cleancooking.org/">Clean Cooking Alliance</a>, les ressources et les financements sont limités pour s'attaquer à la transition vers des combustibles de cuisson plus propres. Cibler des zones spécifiques pour la transition vers la cuisson propre peut donc s'avérer une stratégie utile. </p>
<p>En attendant, la communauté sanitaire mondiale doit consacrer davantage de ressources à l'accès universel à la cuisson propre d'ici 2030 <strong>Objectif n°7 de développement durable</strong> <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/sustainable-development-goals/why-do-sustainable-development-goals-matter/goal-7">(Objectif de développement durable 7 des Nations unies)</a>].</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224579/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Shupler est également chercheur au département de la santé publique, des politiques et des systèmes de l'université de Liverpool. Cette recherche a été financée par le National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) (réf : 17/63/155) à l'aide d'une subvention du gouvernement britannique pour soutenir la recherche en santé mondiale. Les opinions exprimées dans cet article sont celles des auteurs et ne reflètent pas nécessairement celles du NIHR ou du gouvernement britannique.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Esong Miranda Baame and Theresa Tawiah do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>La poussière et la pollution due à la circulation s'ajoutent aux risques sanitaires posés par certains combustibles de cuisson.Matthew Shupler, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Environmental Public Health, Harvard UniversityEsong Miranda Baame, PhD Candidate, Université de DschangTheresa Tawiah, Health Economist ,Department of Environmental Health, Kintampo Health Research CenterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230482024-02-27T14:07:04Z2024-02-27T14:07:04ZBenefits of using cleaner cooking fuels are blunted in urban areas where outdoor air is polluted: findings from Ghana, Cameroon and Kenya<p>Household air pollution from cooking, heating and lighting with fuels like wood, charcoal and kerosene poses a substantial global health problem. </p>
<p>Globally, <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2022-who-publishes-new-global-data-on-the-use-of-clean-and-polluting-fuels-for-cooking-by-fuel-type">2 billion</a> people cook with polluting fuels and are exposed to high levels of household air pollution. The highest proportion live in sub-Saharan Africa, where <a href="https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/new-research-could-help-boost-growth-of-clean-cooking-in-sub-saharan-africa/29340#:%7E:text=Approximately%20900%20million%20people%20cook,health%2Ddamaging%20and%20climate%20pollutants">about 900 million</a> people cook with polluting fuels.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30197-2/fulltext">Studies</a> have shown that use of cleaner cooking fuels, like electricity, ethanol and liquefied petroleum gas, reduces exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a damaging pollutant. But <a href="https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-021-00756-5">other studies</a> have also shown that the use of cleaner cooking fuels doesn’t necessarily reduce PM2.5 levels in people’s homes.</p>
<p>To understand why, our research looked at three rapidly urbanising communities in Cameroon (Mbalmayo), Ghana (Obuasi) and Kenya (Eldoret). We looked at differences in air pollutant levels across cooking fuel types as well as other environmental factors. We measured levels of PM2.5 as well as carbon monoxide (CO), another damaging air pollutant. </p>
<p>Half of the households that were part of our study were mostly cooking with LPG, which is considered a cleaner cooking fuel. The other half were cooking only with polluting fuels, including wood and charcoal.</p>
<p>Our findings showed that the type of cooking fuel households used did indeed affect levels of pollution inside people’s homes. But we found wide disparities between the three communities. For example, there was hardly any difference in average PM2.5 exposures between LPG and charcoal users in the Ghanaian setting. However, in the Kenyan and Cameroonian communities, women’s average PM2.5 levels were much higher among those cooking with wood, compared with those cooking with LPG. In Eldoret, Kenya, women cooking with charcoal were also exposed to substantially higher levels than those cooking with LPG. </p>
<p>We concluded from our results that this could be explained by the fact that environmental factors were also at play – air pollution levels outside people’s homes. In the Ghanaian area, outdoor air pollution levels were around double the levels in the other two communities. This difference is likely due in part to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1352231099002964?via%3Dihub">increased levels</a> of Saharan dust in Ghana during the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/harmattan">harmattan</a> season. </p>
<p>In addition, most women in the Ghanaian setting usually cooked outdoors on a veranda. This increased their exposure to outdoor air pollution. In contrast, women in Kenya and Cameroon typically cooked indoors.</p>
<p>We also found that women, regardless of the cooking fuel they used, had higher exposure to PM2.5 if they lived closer to a busy road (less than a five minute walk away) and travelled outdoors during the day. This suggested that traffic emissions probably made up a substantial proportion of the air pollution that women were breathing in these urban areas. And emissions generated from cooking might have contributed less to overall PM2.5 exposures. </p>
<p>This may explain why there were minimal differences between PM2.5 exposures among women using LPG and charcoal stoves in the Ghanaian community, despite LPG stoves generally emitting lower levels of PM2.5. It follows that, in some areas with rapid urbanisation, outdoor air pollution is probably lowering the ability of clean cooking fuels to reduce PM2.5 exposures. </p>
<h2>What next</h2>
<p>As cities continue to urbanise and the African population increasingly migrates to cities, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01311-2">evidence</a> points to the fact that localised levels of air pollution from industrial sources, traffic, and trash burning are likely to increase. This means that people will become increasingly exposed to air pollutants outdoors and that reductions in PM2.5 exposure that happens when people switch from polluting fuels to LPG may be lower. </p>
<p>Our findings show that clean cooking fuels can reduce indoor air pollution. However, a focus on reducing indoor pollution by switching cooking fuels may only have a limited effect on people’s exposure to damaging air pollutants. Our findings point to the need for developing strategies for reducing both indoor and outdoor air pollution levels. Lower outdoor PM2.5 concentrations can be achieved through stricter regulations on traffic emissions and limiting or eliminating trash burning in favour of less polluting methods for solid waste disposal.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, efforts to encourage a transition towards clean cooking fuels should remain an important policy priority, particularly in communities that are exposed to lower levels of outdoor PM2.5. The transition to clean cooking fuels can potentially have a greater health benefit in these settings. </p>
<p>A more targeted approach and prioritising certain areas in the drive for access to cleaner cooking fuels makes sense. As the <a href="https://cleancooking.org/">Clean Cooking Alliance</a> has pointed out, there are limited resources and funding to tackle the move towards cleaner cooking fuels. Targeting specific areas for clean cooking transitions may therefore be a useful strategy. </p>
<p>In the meantime, the global health community must devote more resources to providing universal access to clean cooking by 2030 <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/sustainable-development-goals/why-do-sustainable-development-goals-matter/goal-7">(United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7)</a>].</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223048/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Shupler is also a researcher in the Department of Public Health, Policy and Systems at the University of Liverpool. This research was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) (ref: 17/63/155) using UK aid from
the UK Government to support global health research. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the UK government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Esong Miranda Baame and Theresa Tawiah do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Dust and traffic pollution add to the health hazard posed by some cooking fuels.Matthew Shupler, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Environmental Public Health, Harvard UniversityEsong Miranda Baame, PhD Candidate, Université de DschangTheresa Tawiah, Health Economist ,Department of Environmental Health, Kintampo Health Research CenterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228592024-02-20T13:18:28Z2024-02-20T13:18:28ZHow politicians can draw fairer election districts − the same way parents make kids fairly split a piece of cake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575690/original/file-20240214-20-umxbsw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C0%2C5315%2C3532&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Unchecked, politicians are likely to try to grab as much electoral power as they can.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/two-girls-playfully-inserting-their-hands-in-a-royalty-free-image/89800006">Fabrice LEROUGE/ONOKY via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Redistricting – the process of determining the boundaries of election districts in which people vote – is a key element of politics that has more of an effect than people might realize. One Republican political consultant called it an election in reverse: “Usually the voters get to pick the politicians. In redistricting, the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/06/06/730260511/redistricting-gurus-hard-drives-could-mean-legal-political-woes-for-gop">politicians get to pick the voters</a>.”</p>
<p>In 33 states, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State-by-state_redistricting_procedures">legislatures draw congressional district boundaries</a>. In eight, that work is done by commissions meant to be independent from the legislatures. In two states, legislatures and commissions both play roles in the map-drawing process. The remaining seven states have just one congressional district each, so there is no need to draw district boundaries. </p>
<p>How district lines are drawn determines who wins elections and, ultimately, who holds political power. </p>
<p>With such high stakes, members of both parties have incentives to create districts that grant themselves an undue electoral advantage. The result is that one party generally ends up unhappy with the redistricting process, and voters are left with districts that may not reflect their collective will. Sometimes, parties <a href="https://apnews.com/article/elections-voting-virginia-voting-rights-census-2020-c31ebadc6f11211fb772429285474181">do not</a> even <a href="https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/159-2024-01-16-pls-objection.pdf">agree</a> on who should serve as a tiebreaker or independent arbiter to resolve disputes.</p>
<p>Our research has found a way that lets politicians pick their voters, but without ending up with excessive <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2017/02/elbridge-gerry-and-the-monstrous-gerrymander/">partisan gerrymandering</a>, which is what happens when the people redrawing districts produce an election map with a clear advantage for one party or the other.</p>
<p>Several states have made efforts to combat gerrymandering, with unclear success. Take, for instance, an effort to draw new congressional districts in New York: In 2022 a redistricting commission meant to be independent from the state legislature <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/03/nyregion/new-york-redistricting-gerrymandering.html">failed to agree on a map</a>, so the process reverted to state legislators. </p>
<p>The map legislators in the Democratic-majority statehouse drew was ruled by a court to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/27/nyregion/redistricting-congress-gerrymander-ny.html">favor Democrats too much</a>. A court-appointed independent expert drew a new map, which resulted in the November 2022 <a href="https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/new-york/house/">election of several new Republican members of Congress from New York</a>. But in December 2023, a <a href="https://redistricting.lls.edu/case/hoffman-v-redistricting-commission/">court set aside the independent expert’s map</a> and ruled the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/15/new-house-lines-approved-in-new-york-what-would-change-00141728">independent commission should try again</a>. </p>
<p>Our method, which we detail in a new scholarly paper, requires neither <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2023.39">cooperation between members of the two major parties</a> nor an independent arbiter to resolve disputes. By giving both parties control of a piece of the process, our method – we call it the Define-Combine Procedure, or DCP – delivers fairer maps than either party would draw on its own. We have also created a website where people can <a href="https://definecombine.com/">try our method for themselves</a>.</p>
<h2>Political fairness</h2>
<p>Many people have attempted to solve problems of political fairness and redistricting in various ways. In our approach, we looked to the age-old problem of fairly cutting a cake: How do you make sure the person cutting the cake gives everyone an equal slice? Parents will often have <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cake-cutting-math-problem-fairness-envy">one child cut the cake and the other child pick which piece they want</a>.</p>
<p>We use a similar approach to propose breaking the redistricting process into two steps, each of which is assigned to one political party. </p>
<p>In the first step, one party draws districts on the map. However, unlike regular redistricting, in which they draw the exact number of districts needed, our process requires the first party to draw twice that number of half- or sub-districts. Like full electoral districts, these half-districts must have <a href="https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/geo-areas/congressional-dist.html">equal populations</a> and be physically <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11618">contiguous</a>. Many states also have <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Compactness">requirements for district compactness</a>, which would apply to this first stage of map drawing too. We also don’t allow <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/12/texas-redistricting-doughnut-fort-hood-bell-county/">“doughnut” districts</a> – where one district is entirely surrounded by another district.</p>
<p>In the second step, the other party chooses how to pair neighboring half-districts into full-size districts.</p>
<p>Even if each party acts entirely in its own interest, attempting to maximize its own chances of winning the most districts, the fact that the process is split into these two stages holds each party’s ambitions somewhat in check. </p>
<p><iframe id="wHmsK" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wHmsK/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Testing representation</h2>
<p>We used computer simulations to investigate how this process might work in drawing congressional districts in the 50 states. We found that our method substantially diminishes the partisan advantage that would exist when just one party controls the redistricting process. </p>
<p>For instance, in Texas, which has 38 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, we estimate that if Republicans had complete control of the map and acted selfishly, they could draw a map with eight Democratic seats and 30 Republican seats. If Democrats were in complete control and acting selfishly, they could create a map with 28 Democratic seats and 10 Republican seats. The party in control of 20 of Texas’ seats in Congress would depend on which party drew the map.</p>
<p>Through simulating the map-drawing process under our method hundreds of thousands of times, using 2020 election results and census data, we find that Democrats would win 17 seats, while Republicans would win 19 seats, with just two seats changing hands depending on which party did which part of the two-stage process.</p>
<p>Regardless of who goes first, our method produces a more representative map. And by reducing the number of seats that swing based on party control from 20 to two, the stakes are lower, which we hope could reduce the dysfunction of the current process.</p>
<h2>A national simulation</h2>
<p>We also moved beyond one state, simulating how each party could draw districts across the nation and showing how the results would differ if either party did it unilaterally versus via our method. </p>
<p>Under traditional, one-party controlled redistricting, we find that 197 seats – almost half of the 435 in Congress – are in theory up for grabs, depending on who controls the redistricting process in each state. </p>
<p>But under our Define-Combine Procedure, the number of seats that change hands on a partisan basis drops to just 46, based on which party defines the half-districts and which one combines them into full districts.</p>
<p>Using our method of redistricting produces a fairer map. No matter which party is assigned the first step of the process, each party gets a share of districts determined more by its level of support among voters than who controls the redistricting process.</p>
<h2>A transition to a new method?</h2>
<p>We recognize that parties currently in control of the redistricting process are unlikely to give up that power by adopting our process. But there are important cases, such as in New York state, where both parties, or an independent commission, must produce a map. This happens, for instance, when judges order states to redraw their maps after a legal dispute.</p>
<p>Our method might be particularly useful in those circumstances to arrive at a map with which the parties can be equally happy – and unhappy. We hope the appeal of a process like ours will grow once it is used successfully to guide a map-drawing process. </p>
<p>In our view, fixing gerrymandering is crucial to maintaining the promise of American democracy. It is a difficult problem but not an intractable one. We suggest map drawers get back to basics and take inspiration from how we teach our children to treat each other fairly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222859/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Electoral redistricting is a high-stakes political game, so Democrats and Republicans have a hard time playing fair. When they’re made to work together, a more representative result is possible.Benjamin Schneer, Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolKevin DeLuca, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Yale UniversityMaxwell Palmer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2229542024-02-18T07:07:22Z2024-02-18T07:07:22ZHIV among older South Africans in rural areas: big study shows there’s a problem that’s being neglected<p>South Africa continues to have a high prevalence of HIV among all age groups. About 8.2 million people or <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10461-023-04222-w">13.7%</a> of the population live with HIV, one of the highest rates in the world. </p>
<p>The country also has one of the world’s most impressive antiretroviral therapy programmes. Over <a href="https://www.phc.ox.ac.uk/blog/the-importance-of-primary-care-in-south-africa2019s-hiv-treatment-programme">5 million people</a> living with HIV are currently on chronic treatment. Widespread access to antiretroviral therapies since 2008 has led to millions of people <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9851406/#:%7E:text=The%20widespread%20roll%2Dout%20of,aging%20in%20the%20ART%20era.">ageing with chronic HIV infection</a>. Consequently, people with HIV are older on average than they were just a decade ago. </p>
<p>Most HIV prevention and treatment programmes and policies in South Africa remain focused on adolescents and young adults. A growing group of middle-aged and older adults with HIV, or at high risk, are being left behind. </p>
<p>To date, there has been little research about sexual behaviour, risk of HIV transmission, HIV stigma and HIV prevention for adults over 40 years old. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://haalsi.org/">Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies in South Africa</a> study – or Haalsa as it is commonly known – is an exception to this trend. It seeks to better understand both the risk of getting HIV and the health of ageing adults with HIV in South Africa. </p>
<p>This project, a collaboration between the University of the Witwatersrand and Harvard University, has followed a cohort of over 5,000 adults older than 40 in the Agincourt region in north-east South Africa for more than 10 years. </p>
<p>Throughout this decade of research, the team has been gaining a deeper understanding of this “greying” HIV epidemic. Numerous important insights about HIV in older populations have already been achieved. Here we present some of the findings. </p>
<h2>Sexual activity is common</h2>
<p>Research conducted in 2017 uncovered a <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27926667/">high</a> prevalence of HIV in this older population. Nearly 1 in 4 people over 40 years old were living with HIV. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27926667/">study</a> found that 56% of respondents, across all HIV status categories, had had sexual activity in the past 24 months. Condom use was low among HIV-negative adults (15%), higher among HIV-positive adults who were unaware of their HIV status (27%), and dramatically higher among HIV-positive adults who were aware of their status (75%).</p>
<p>In another <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32516151/">investigation</a> in this cohort, the team found that over the period from 2010 to 2016 the incidence rate of HIV for women was <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32516151/">double</a> that of men.</p>
<h2>Feeling the stigma</h2>
<p>There are relatively few studies of HIV-related stigma among older adults, despite the <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhl/article/PIIS2666-7568(22)00041-1/fulltext">increasing number</a> of older adults living with HIV.</p>
<p>The majority of research excludes, or ignores, age as a variable. Understanding HIV-related stigma in older adults remains crucial and can inform interventions to support their mental health and overall well-being. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38286975/">research</a> suggests that social stigma poses a significant barrier to testing behaviour among older adults. A quarter of our respondents reported social stigma related to HIV infection.</p>
<p>This stigma was found to have important implications for HIV care: those experiencing high social stigma were <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38286975/">less likely</a> to engage in HIV testing and less likely to be linked to treatment.</p>
<p>A recent pilot study examined home-based HIV testing options for older adults and showed a preference for <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37696252/">self-testing</a>. More privacy may encourage more adults to establish their HIV status.</p>
<h2>Treatment targets</h2>
<p><a href="https://haalsi.org">Haalsa</a> is uniquely positioned to understand how older adults with HIV are faring in terms of achieving HIV treatment targets, including viral <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31243144">suppression</a>. </p>
<p>In 2014-2015, 63% of older adults with HIV in the study were taking antiretroviral therapy and 72% of those on therapy were virally suppressed. More recent updates have suggested that as of 2018-2019, many more older adults with HIV were virally suppressed. </p>
<p>To further highlight the critical importance of viral suppression for healthy ageing, the Haalsa team explored the impact of viral suppression on <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36179754/">life expectancy</a> in older adults. </p>
<p>Here, they found large gaps in life expectancy based on viral suppression <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36179754/">status</a>: a 45-year-old man without HIV could expect to live about another 27 years; a man with virally suppressed HIV could expect to live 24 years. One with unsuppressed HIV could expect to live 17 years.</p>
<p>Similarly, a woman aged 45 without HIV could expect to live another 33.2 years compared with 31.6 years longer for a woman with virally suppressed HIV. A woman with unsuppressed HIV could expect to live a further 26.4 years. </p>
<h2>Looking to the future</h2>
<p>Taken together, these new insights are critically important to inform the design of interventions and policies to ensure healthy ageing in South African society, and particularly among those with or at high risk of HIV. </p>
<p>Tailored strategies to prevent new HIV infections, awareness programmes and support to ensure that more people living with HIV in older age groups achieve and maintain viral suppression are urgently needed to reduce HIV risk in this and similar communities in sub-Saharan Africa.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jen Manne-Goehler receives funding from the US National Institutes of Health. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Rohr receives funding from National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Till Bärnighausen for this work my institution has received a grant from the National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Aging (NIH/NIA), which is the HIV component NIH/NIA of the overarching NIH/NIA HAALSI
Unrelated to this work, I also receive funding from a wide range of public science funders, including the NIH (other institutes), the German National Research Foundation , the European Union (within the Horizon science funding programme, the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Volkswagen Foundation, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the German Federal Ministry of the Environment, Wellcome (the British Medical Research Foundation), and the Else Kröner Fresenius Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Francesco Xavier Gomez-Olive Casas, Kathleen Kahn, and Nomsa Mahlalela do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A significant number of older adults in rural South Africa are HIV-positive. Awareness programmes and self-testing would reduce cases.Jen Manne-Goehler, Physician-scientist, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public HealthFrancesco Xavier Gomez-Olive Casas, Research Manager at MRC/Wits Agincourt Research Unit, University of the WitwatersrandJulia Rohr, Research Scientist, Harvard UniversityKathleen Kahn, Professor: Health and Population Division, School of Public Health, University of the WitwatersrandNomsa Mahlalela, Researcher, University of the WitwatersrandTill Bärnighausen, Professor, University of HeidelbergLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1944332024-02-14T13:23:10Z2024-02-14T13:23:10ZReal-world experiments in messaging show that getting low-income people the help they need is more effective when stigma is reduced<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518833/original/file-20230401-14-crh8sz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5168%2C2916&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Stigma tied to poverty can create a barrier to the very help people need. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/BUkU-VhzW-s">@felipepelaquim for Unsplash.com</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There are pervasive stereotypes that Americans who are low income and access government assistance are lazy, lack a work ethic and are even morally inferior. This stigma has been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101117">shown to have many negative consequences</a>. </p>
<p>But until now, there’s been little research on whether this stigma influences the willingness to use government assistance.</p>
<p>We studied the effect of stigma in the context of <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/coronavirus/assistance-for-state-local-and-tribal-governments/emergency-rental-assistance-program">Emergency Rental Assistance</a>. The purpose of rental assistance programs is to help low-income people avoid eviction by helping them pay overdue rent. While these programs have long existed, they received a large influx of new funds as part of the federal government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>This offered an opportunity for our team at <a href="https://www.peoplelab.hks.harvard.edu/">The People Lab</a>, which is based at the Harvard Kennedy School, to examine some of the barriers that low-income populations face in accessing safety net programs.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518832/original/file-20230401-28-bvpye4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A worn-out sign street advertising apartments for rent." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518832/original/file-20230401-28-bvpye4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518832/original/file-20230401-28-bvpye4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518832/original/file-20230401-28-bvpye4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518832/original/file-20230401-28-bvpye4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518832/original/file-20230401-28-bvpye4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518832/original/file-20230401-28-bvpye4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518832/original/file-20230401-28-bvpye4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The federal government helped low-income Americans pay overdue rent during the pandemic – but they had to apply for this benefit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/zZ2mUNET5DQ">Bethany Reeves for Unsplash.com</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A less stigmatizing message</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4040234">recently published paper</a>, we described the results of two large studies we conducted in collaboration with the Denver Department of Housing Stability, the Denver Office of Social Equity and Innovation, and the Austin Housing and Planning Department. </p>
<p>Our goal was to test the impact of different outreach messages on the likelihood that people eligible for rental assistance would apply for benefits.</p>
<p>In the first randomized experiment, about 25,000 presumed renters in 56 neighborhoods in Denver received a mailer with straightforward information about the rental assistance program. Another group of approximately 25,000 presumed renters received a mailer with subtle language changes that aimed to reduce the internalized shame and potentially expected discrimination associated with participation in rental assistance.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575123/original/file-20240212-22-qg8aki.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A promotional message for help paying rent" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575123/original/file-20240212-22-qg8aki.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575123/original/file-20240212-22-qg8aki.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=847&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575123/original/file-20240212-22-qg8aki.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=847&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575123/original/file-20240212-22-qg8aki.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=847&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575123/original/file-20240212-22-qg8aki.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1064&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575123/original/file-20240212-22-qg8aki.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1064&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575123/original/file-20240212-22-qg8aki.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1064&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A destigmatizing email from this experiment with some information redacted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The People Lab</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This destigmatizing message emphasized, for instance, that “it’s not your fault” if you need rental assistance.</p>
<p>We found that people who received the destigmatizing mailer were 11% more likely to apply for rental assistance than people who received the mailer that only included basic information, and 37% more likely to apply than people who did not receive anything in the mail.</p>
<p>In the second randomized experiment, we tested similar messages delivered via email to approximately 50,000 residents in Austin, Texas. We found similar results: Sending people a destigmatizing email that emphasized “it’s not your fault” if you need rental assistance led to higher engagement than a purely informational email. </p>
<p>Our findings suggest that it is possible to reduce internalized shame in a way that makes people who are eligible for government benefits more likely to apply for them – despite the presence of pervasive societal stigma. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518834/original/file-20230401-16-xrhwaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="One person stops to give something to another person sitting on the ground in a tunnel." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518834/original/file-20230401-16-xrhwaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518834/original/file-20230401-16-xrhwaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518834/original/file-20230401-16-xrhwaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518834/original/file-20230401-16-xrhwaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518834/original/file-20230401-16-xrhwaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518834/original/file-20230401-16-xrhwaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518834/original/file-20230401-16-xrhwaf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There should be no shame in getting assistance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/kyeJW1zRH0I">Elyse Chia for Unsplash.com</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Overcoming stigma</h2>
<p>U.S. safety net programs are <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/safety-net-more-effective-against-poverty-than-previously-thought">highly effective</a>, but only if people who are eligible for benefits use them. Applying for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/01/28/upshot/administrative-burden-quiz.html">assistance can be onerous</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz013">Research</a> demonstrates that simplifying processes and providing clear and simple information about program benefits can increase participation in some contexts. Yet, gaps remain: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200603">Simply providing information about programs and benefits</a> doesn’t always increase participation, and it doesn’t necessarily reach those who need assistance the most.</p>
<p>We hope our research sheds light on the way in which stigma may affect people’s willingness to use government benefits. And we hope these findings encourage government agencies to reconsider their approach to providing information and assistance to avoid inadvertently reinforcing the stigma associated with benefits use.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Linos receives funding for her research from many foundations, including the Russell Sage Foundation, the Hewlett Foundation, the Gates Foundation, J-PAL and others. She is a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a Faculty Affiliate of J-PAL and the California Policy Lab. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jessica Lasky-Fink does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The stigma around poverty and government benefits can make those initiatives less effective.Jessica Lasky-Fink, Research Director of the People Lab, Harvard Kennedy SchoolElizabeth Linos, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200252024-02-08T16:54:26Z2024-02-08T16:54:26ZAI in the developing world: how ‘tiny machine learning’ can have a big impact<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/574354/original/file-20240208-22-lty35i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C2000%2C1353&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A team in Argentina is using sensors based on TinyML technology to study _Chelonoidis chilensis_ tortoises. Little is known about its biology and the species is in a vulnerable state. The small sensors, in black on the shell, are small enough to allow the animal to move freely. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) applications has traditionally been dominated by the use of resource-intensive servers centralised in industrialised nations. However, recent years have witnessed the emergence of small, energy-efficient devices for AI applications, a concept known as <a href="https://www.datacamp.com/blog/what-is-tinyml-tiny-machine-learning">tiny machine learning</a> (TinyML).</p>
<p>We’re most familiar with consumer-facing applications such as <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.07128">Siri, Alexa, and Google Assistant</a>, but the limited cost and small size of such devices allow them to be deployed in the field. For example, the technology has been used to <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3582515.3609514">detect mosquito wingbeats and so help prevent the spread of malaria</a>. It’s also been part of the <a href="https://www.smartparks.org/opencollar-io/">development of low-power animal collars to support conservation efforts</a>.</p>
<h2>Small size, big impact</h2>
<p>Distinguished by their small size and low cost, TinyML devices operate within constraints reminiscent of the dawn of the personal-computer era – memory is measured in kilobytes and hardware can be had for as little as US$1. This is possible because TinyML doesn’t require a laptop computer or even a mobile phone. Instead, it can instead run on simple microcontrollers that power standard electronic components worldwide. In fact, given that there are already <a href="https://venturebeat.com/ai/why-tinyml-is-a-giant-opportunity/">250 billion microcontrollers deployed globally</a>, devices that support TinyML are already available at scale.</p>
<p>A number of development packages for TinyML applications are available. Two popular options are <a href="https://store-usa.arduino.cc/products/arduino-tiny-machine-learning-kit">Arduino</a> and <a href="https://www.seeedstudio.com/XIAO-ESP32S3-Sense-p-5639.html">Seeed Studio</a>, both of which come with additional sensors for audio, vision, and motion-based applications.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573124/original/file-20240202-23-rgy9pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C48%2C4031%2C2764&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573124/original/file-20240202-23-rgy9pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C48%2C4031%2C2764&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573124/original/file-20240202-23-rgy9pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573124/original/file-20240202-23-rgy9pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573124/original/file-20240202-23-rgy9pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573124/original/file-20240202-23-rgy9pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573124/original/file-20240202-23-rgy9pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573124/original/file-20240202-23-rgy9pf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">TinyML workshop at Universiti Kebangsaan, Malaysia, 2023. Participants working on the ‘smile’ or ‘serious’ face-detection application.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marco Zennaro</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How does it work?</h2>
<p>Like classical machine learning, TinyML involves data collection – often from Internet of Things (IoT) devices – and cloud-based training. Let’s consider an outdoor object-detection application – for example, counting the number of cars on a street to see how heavy the traffic there is. In the classical ML process, images have to be gathered using a webcam and sent to a cloud server where the training takes place. Once the trained model provides an acceptable level of accuracy, the system is ready to detect cars from a new video feed. The ML model runs on the cloud, so an Internet connection is necessary.</p>
<p>In the TinyML system, however, the model is deployed on the device itself and is ready to detect objects with no need for connectivity. The first part of the process (gathering data and training the model on the cloud) follows the classical ML model but the inference phase (detecting objects) runs on the device itself. This is how TinyML diverges from traditional server-based architectures: it deploys pre-trained compact models optimised for limited resources onto embedded devices, enabling real-time, low-power data analysis and decision-making, all independent of cloud connectivity.</p>
<p>TinyML offers several advantages over traditional centralised server-based models:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Affordability: the technology’s low cost makes these devices accessible to a wide range of users including educational institutions and students in the developing world.</p></li>
<li><p>Sustainability: the modest energy consumption produces a <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3608473">low carbon footprint</a>, reducing impact on the environment.</p></li>
<li><p>Flexibility and scalability: it enables the development of applications that address the needs of local communities rather than global agendas.</p></li>
<li><p>Internet independent: Because everything is embedded, TinyML devices can operate without online connectivity. This is particularly beneficial for the third of the world that still does not have Internet access.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>TinyML applications already power <a href="https://cms.tinyml.org/wp-content/uploads/summit2021/tinyMLSummit2021d3_tinyTalks_Gandhi.pdf">personalised sensors for athletics and provide localisation where GPS isn’t available</a>. They’re also employed by startups such as <a href="https://usefulsensors.com/">Useful Sensors</a>, which offers privacy-conserving conversational agents, QR code scanners, and person-detection hardware. Only through the use of TinyML could these smart devices run on the low-cost, low-power microcontrollers.</p>
<h2>Developing in the Global South</h2>
<p>To help the use of TinyML grow in regions where a centralised machine-learning model would face significant challenges, we built <a href="https://tinymledu.org/4d">TinyML4D</a>, a network of academic institutions in developing countries. It already includes more than 40 countries spanning the Global South from Columbia to Ethiopia to Malaysia.</p>
<p>With support from UNESCO’s International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) and from Harvard University’s John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Science, the network was launched in 2021. Its aim is to develop a community of educators, researchers and practitioners focused on both improving access to TinyML education, and developing innovative solutions to address the unique challenges faced by developing countries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573122/original/file-20240202-19-rq3yjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573122/original/file-20240202-19-rq3yjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573122/original/file-20240202-19-rq3yjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=216&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573122/original/file-20240202-19-rq3yjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=216&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573122/original/file-20240202-19-rq3yjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=216&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573122/original/file-20240202-19-rq3yjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573122/original/file-20240202-19-rq3yjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573122/original/file-20240202-19-rq3yjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=271&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of the TinyML Academic Network. More than 50 universities are part of the network as of February 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marcelo Rovai</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To make all this possible, we needed to develop ways to share educational resources globally. Initial efforts included distributing TinyML hardware kits to selected universities with budgetary challenges. We also organised global and regional (Africa, Latin America, and Asia) workshops and training sessions. Using a mixture of in-person, online and hybrid methods, we’ve reached more 1,000 participants in over than 50 countries. The combination of no-cost or low-cost hardware resources, combined with open-source course materials and workshops has enabled TinyML to be taught by many of our network members in their home countries.</p>
<p>Beyond our workshops and training activities, we have launched a series of regional collaborations, outreach activities and virtual “show and tell” events to share best practices and augment our network’s impact among practitioners. Throughout, there has been a strong focus on addressing the United Nations’ sustainable development goals (SDGs).</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573125/original/file-20240202-27-wcu4vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573125/original/file-20240202-27-wcu4vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573125/original/file-20240202-27-wcu4vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573125/original/file-20240202-27-wcu4vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573125/original/file-20240202-27-wcu4vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=797&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573125/original/file-20240202-27-wcu4vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573125/original/file-20240202-27-wcu4vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573125/original/file-20240202-27-wcu4vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1001&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workshop at Kobe Institute of Computing, Japan, in 2023. Participants are working on ‘keyword spotting’ applications, developing their personal Alexa/Google Home on a $10 device. The system can be trained to recognise local dialects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marco Zennaro</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These collaborations have led to multiple peer-reviewed papers on TinyML applications. In addition to the solution to <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3524458.3547258">detect mosquito species</a>, which could lead to more efficient malaria-control campaigns, others include the <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3586991">responsible use of intelligent sensors</a> and low-cost solutions to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkZEFzBfiJI">monitoring atrial fibrillation and sinus rhythm</a>. They’re also used by Cornell University’s <a href="https://www.elephantlisteningproject.org/about-elp/">“Elephant Listening Project”</a> as well <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2105.11493.pdf">monitoring water quality in aquaculture to help make it more sustainable</a>, a project supported by EU’s <a href="https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/funding/funding-opportunities/funding-programmes-and-open-calls/horizon-2020_en">Horizon 2020</a> programme.</p>
<h2>Looking forward</h2>
<p>TinyML represents a transformative approach to artificial intelligence and is especially pertinent to developing countries. It offers a sustainable path toward democratising AI technology, fostering local innovation, and addressing regional challenges.</p>
<p>The growth of TinyML devices and applications is not without potential challenges and risks, however. The number of applications and devices is expected to rise from the millions shipped today to <a href="https://www.abiresearch.com/press/tinyml-device-shipments-grow-25-billion-2030-15-million-2020/">2.5 billion devices in 2030</a>, and that could lead to increased electronic waste due to the low-cost nature of devices. There’s also the risk of embedded biases in critical ML models – because they operate standalone, there’s no option for updates. Finally, there are privacy concerns due to the discrete integration of devices in the environment. As the field evolves, it will be crucial to navigate these issues responsibly, and so help ensure that TinyML remains a tool for positive change and sustainable development.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>UNESCO’s duty remains to reaffirm the humanist missions of education, science and culture. Mobilise education to transform lives; Reconcile with the living; Promote inclusion and mutual understanding; Foster science and technology at the service of humanity are UNESCO’s key strategic objectives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220025/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Traditionally dominated by the use of centralised, resource-intensive servers, machine learning is being democratised with the growth of “TinyML”, distinguished by its small size and low cost.Marco Zennaro, Coordinator, Science, Technology and Innovation Unit, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)Brian Plancher, Assistant Professor of Computer Science, Barnard CollegeMatthew Stewart, Postdoctoral Researcher, Harvard UniversityVijay Janapa Reddi, John L. Loeb Associate Professor of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228742024-02-08T01:13:32Z2024-02-08T01:13:32ZA new Senate report sounds alarm bells on student behaviour. Here are 4 things to help teachers in the classroom<p>Managing 20-30 adults in one room is a challenge for even the best managers. Swap the adults for children and you have what classroom teachers do every day.</p>
<p>Student behaviour and engagement in class are some of the biggest problems worrying Australian teachers and education experts. According to a 2022 <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-classrooms-are-among-the-least-favourable-for-discipline-in-the-oecd-heres-how-to-improve-student-behaviour-202946">report</a>, Australian classrooms rank among the OECD’s most disorderly. This can range from low-level behaviours such as talking, not following instructions and using a mobile phone in class, to destruction of property, physical and verbal abuse. </p>
<p>This makes it harder for students to learn and more stressful for teachers to teach. </p>
<p>For the past year, a Liberal-chaired <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Education_and_Employment/DASC">Senate inquiry</a> has been looking at “increasing disruption in Australian school classrooms”. </p>
<p>Following an <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-senate-inquiry-is-calling-for-a-new-behaviour-curriculum-to-try-and-tackle-classroom-disruptions-218695">interim report</a> in December 2023, the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Education_and_Employment/DASC/Report">final report</a> was released on Wednesday evening. </p>
<h2>What is in the report?</h2>
<p>On top of its <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-senate-inquiry-is-calling-for-a-new-behaviour-curriculum-to-try-and-tackle-classroom-disruptions-218695">previous recommendation</a> to introduce a “behaviour curriculum” (to “help students understand their school’s behavioural expectations and values”), the committee now recommends a further inquiry into “declining academic standards” in Australian schools. </p>
<p>The report notes the latest Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-teenagers-record-steady-results-in-international-tests-but-about-half-are-not-meeting-proficiency-standards-218814">results</a>. Released in December 2023, this is an international test of 15-year-olds’ knowledge and skills in science, maths and reading:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>while Australia’s relative performance has remained mostly unchanged over the last two cycles, Australian students’ overall performance has actually been in steady decline over the past two decades.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Along with the academic component, a PISA questionnaire asked students how often disruptions happened in maths lessons. This included asking whether students do not listen to what the teacher says and whether there is noise and disorder in the classroom.</p>
<p>Australia ranked 33 out of the 37 OECD countries in the survey. Around 40% of Australian students reported they get distracted by using digital devices in maths lessons, while more than 30% said they get distracted by other students using digital devices.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-australian-students-really-falling-behind-it-depends-which-test-you-look-at-218709">Are Australian students really falling behind? It depends which test you look at</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What could help?</h2>
<p>The report also noted the Australian Education Research Organisation’s recent work on behaviour, backed by federal government funding. </p>
<p>In December 2023 the organisation released a paper <a href="https://www.edresearch.edu.au/research/research-reports/effectively-managing-classrooms-create-safe-and-supportive-learning-environments">looking at the evidence</a> on what works to manage classrooms. Last month it also released a <a href="https://www.edresearch.edu.au/guides-resources/practice-resources/classroom-management-handbook">guide for teachers</a> based on this research. </p>
<p>Below are four key messages from this work. </p>
<h2>1. Set expectations, routines and rules</h2>
<p>Students don’t arrive at school innately knowing what is <a href="https://education.nsw.gov.au/about-us/education-data-and-research/cese/publications/literature-reviews/classroom-management">expected</a> of them. This includes what to do when they are entering and exiting the classroom, wanting to gain their teacher’s attention, completing tasks or moving through the school.</p>
<p>So classroom rules and routines need to be explicitly taught and regularly revised to help students understand and demonstrate them automatically. This then gives them more headspace for learning.</p>
<p>Some expectations should be shared with families, such as arrival routines or expectations about homework.</p>
<p>Teachers should also role-model what they expect of students. This includes arriving to class on time, being organised, and listening to and speaking to students in a consistent and calm manner.</p>
<h2>2. Prepare the classroom environment</h2>
<p>The way a classroom is set up plays an important role in creating welcoming, calm and functional learning environments. </p>
<p>This can include the way furniture is arranged – so everyone can see and hear the teacher easily – as well as visual displays that are set up to enhance and not distract from learning. </p>
<p>This includes reminders for where students will put their bags, displaying timetables and routines so students know where they need to be and what they need to do.</p>
<h2>3. Build student-teacher relationships</h2>
<p>If students have a positive connection with their teacher, they are <a href="https://www.ccyp.wa.gov.au/media/2763/speaking-out-about-school-and-learning.pdf">more likely</a> to have a positive attitude towards school. Some ways teachers can establish a strong relationship include greeting students individually at the classroom door every day and interacting with students outside the classroom.</p>
<p>They should regularly “check in” with every student. For example, ask about their weekend, their activities and interests outside of school, such as how their football team is performing or how their dance performance went. </p>
<p>If there are issues, they should deliver feedback constructively. This involves reminding students of the expectations, identifying what they were doing and what they need to do instead and why. After giving feedback, teachers should let go of the incident and start fresh.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-call-for-a-new-behaviour-curriculum-in-australian-schools-is-that-a-good-idea-219593">There's a call for a new 'behaviour curriculum' in Australian schools. Is that a good idea?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. Respond to behaviour</h2>
<p>Even with the best classroom management practices, there will be times when teachers need to handle <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/engaging-students-creating-classrooms-that-improve-learning/">disengaged or disruptive behaviours</a>.</p>
<p>Teachers should be familiar with a combination of non-verbal and verbal “corrections” and escalate responses as needs be. </p>
<p>This includes talking to a student privately one-on-one, at a time that does not interrupt the flow of the lesson. They can also remind the group or whole class of expectations. </p>
<p>Teachers can also use non-verbal strategies, such as moving closer to a student who is not behaving, pausing and looking at a student in a deliberate way to demonstrate they are aware of what is happening. They could also make a gesture (such as a finger to their lips). The focus should always be on supporting students to re-engage in learning rather than punishing them.</p>
<p>Acknowledging and praising students who are meeting behaviour expectations is also as important as addressing disruption. This reinforces the <a href="https://www.booktopia.com.au/the-first-days-of-school-5ed-harry-k-wong/book/9780976423386.html?source=pla&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiAn-2tBhDVARIsAGmStVnWK0yXyQQemq7VoR0tenh-z0PePTWQ6JoaEq1pmPtc-916H_0ZZGcaAsODEALw_wcB">expected behaviours</a> for all students.</p>
<h2>A complex issue</h2>
<p>Student behaviour is a complex issue and is by no means solely an issue for teachers to fix. As the Senate <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportsen/RB000063/toc_pdf/TheissueofincreasingdisruptioninAustralianschoolclassrooms.pdf">inquiry heard</a>, behaviour can be influenced by socioeconomic factors, bullying, family trauma and disability.</p>
<p>But there are practical things teachers and schools can do to help students engage in their lessons and keep classrooms calm and focused.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zid Niel Mancenido is Senior Manager, Research and Evaluation for the Australian Research Education Organisation. The project mentioned in this article is funded by the federal Department of Education, through the Engaged Classrooms Through Effective Classroom Management Program.</span></em></p>For the past year, a Senate inquiry has been looking at “increasing disruption in Australian school classrooms”.Zid Niel Mancenido, Lecturer, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123182024-01-29T13:36:22Z2024-01-29T13:36:22ZNonwhite people are drastically underrepresented in local government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571298/original/file-20240124-27-zt9n4k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C35%2C5955%2C3952&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mayors from across the U.S. attended the Conference of Mayors, which included a visit to the White House.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-speaks-while-hosting-a-bipartisan-news-photo/1246390531">Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elected representatives in government don’t always look like the people they serve.</p>
<p>The people who serve in local governments – cities, counties and other entities below the state level – represent the vast majority of elected officials in the U.S. <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YT3El7IAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">My</a> recent research with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qMesMvAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Diana Da In Lee</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Z777M9UAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Yamil Velez</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=MbQMZ54AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Chris Warshaw</a> finds that, <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/10/19/opinion/who-is-representing-you/">like in the federal and state governments</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02792-x">nonwhite people are drastically underrepresented in local government</a>.</p>
<p>We gathered <a href="https://osf.io/mv5e6/">elections data</a> on city, county and school district elections over the last three decades from medium and large places – any city with a population of at least 50,000 people and any county with a population of at least 75,000 in 2020. These 877 different cities and 1,005 different counties encompass more than half of the U.S. population. Using that data, we calculated the share of winning candidates who were members of several racial and ethnic groups.</p>
<p>In each place, we compared the percentage of the population from each of those demographic groups with the percentage of elected officials from those same groups. This allowed us to gauge whether each of these demographic groups was proportionally represented, or if they were overrepresented or underrepresented among their local politicians.</p>
<h2>Municipal officials</h2>
<p>Across cities in the U.S., we looked at the offices of mayor and city councilor. One commonality stands out: Nearly universally, the percentage of elected officials who are white is higher than the white share of the population. This overrepresentation persists from the early 1990s – the first time period from which we have data – to more recent years among mayors. Among city councilors, it’s a bit closer to parity with the population.</p>
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<p>For mayors in recent years, there is a particularly large gap: On average, 78% of mayors are white, while only 68% of the population in the cities in our data is white. City councilors, on the other hand, tend to look much more like the population in their cities.</p>
<p>This overrepresentation of white residents comes at the expense of Hispanic and Asian residents. Nearly 17% of residents in cities are Hispanic and 5% are Asian. But only 6% of mayors are Hispanic and only 2% are Asian.</p>
<h2>County officials</h2>
<p>In medium and large counties where we collected elections data, we made similar comparisons for county executives, county legislators, sheriffs and prosecutors. Again, across these local elected offices, there are far more, as a percentage, white elected officials than there are white residents of these counties.</p>
<p>Just under 70% of residents of the counties in our data are white. But over 76% of county executives are white, over 85% of county legislators are white, 83% of sheriffs are white, and nearly 89% of prosecutors are white.</p>
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<p>Again, the overrepresentation of white residents among local elected officials happens as other racial and ethnic groups are underrepresented in their county governments. Black residents make up 11% of the population in counties in our data, but only 9% of county legislators. And Hispanic and Asian residents are more drastically underrepresented in county offices. In our data, 11% of county residents are Hispanic, while 3% are Asian. But 5% or less of politicians holding office in any county elected position are Hispanic. And Asians make up 1% or less of elected county legislators, sheriffs and prosecutors.</p>
<h2>School boards</h2>
<p>Data on school boards’ representation is less clear because our data collection on school boards was less comprehensive than our data on city and county elections. But the apparent trend among the school districts where we gathered data is similar. </p>
<p>School boards have become a <a href="https://theconversation.com/even-school-boards-are-now-experiencing-severe-political-polarization-191102">flashpoint for various political efforts</a>, including teaching about race and racism and requests to ban books. And they are substantially more white than the communities they serve.</p>
<p>Less than half of the constituents in the school districts in our data are white, but more than two-thirds of school board members are white. Of the districts in our study, 22% of the residents were Black and 6% were Asian, but just 10% of board members are Black and just 3% are Asian. Hispanic residents, who made up 24% of the population, were more closely represented, but still not equally, with 20% of board members. </p>
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<p>What does this mean for representation across the U.S.? Local elected officials make important and often contentious decisions governing the lives of millions of city and county residents. Race and other demographic features of both residents and elected officials do not, by any means, offer a conclusive picture of their respective policy preferences. But the fact that local governments look so different from their residents doesn’t paint a sunny picture of representation in local government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212318/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin de Benedictis-Kessner has previously received grant funding for his research from the MIT Election Data + Science Lab, Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS), the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, and the Boston Area Research Initiative.</span></em></p>As in the federal and state governments, local elected officials are more likely to be white than their constituents. At times, such as with school boards, the differences are particularly stark.Justin de Benedictis-Kessner, Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212812024-01-18T16:49:08Z2024-01-18T16:49:08ZMigrants can be a transformative force for sustainable development<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570079/original/file-20240118-30-qftv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3401%2C2341&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A study found migrants were more likely to volunteer in their communities than native residents.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/happy-multiracial-senior-women-having-fun-2350443587">Sabrina Bracher/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Amsterdammers are proud of their city. But it turns out that people who have moved there from other parts of the world are just as concerned about keeping the place green and pleasant. We surveyed Amsterdam residents and <a href="https://www.projectmisty.org/post/is-covid-19-shifting-attitudes-towards-sustainability-a-case-study-from-amsterdam">found</a>, among other things, that recent migrants were just as likely to recycle as those born and raised in the city.</p>
<p>Similarly, research has shown that internal and international migrants living in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102790">Accra, Ghana</a> were more likely to take part in activities that enriched the local environment, like creating community gardens to grow food, than people who were born there.</p>
<p>Can the movement of people (including those displaced by climate change) aid sustainable solutions to environmental problems? Our research suggests that it can. Migration is good for society in circumstances when it reduces inequality, enhances overall wellbeing, and does not place greater environmental burdens on the regions where people move to or from.</p>
<h2>Migrant flows and their consequences</h2>
<p>Sustainable development means enhancing wellbeing in ways that fairly meet the needs of present and future generations. A new set of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/topic/554">studies</a> has shown that new policies are needed to manage migration in a way that ensures such sustainability, while also minimising involuntary displacement due to conflict or disasters.</p>
<p>Poorly managed migration can deepen inequality and increase environmental damage. One <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206192119">study</a> looked at Florida in the US, where sea-level rise is expected to lead to outward migration – with younger, economically active adults moving first. Such migration would put pressure on housing and water and contribute to congestion and pollution in the destination cities, while leaving the coastal areas with ageing populations and a lower tax base.</p>
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<img alt="Cars driving down a flooded road in the US." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change is expected to spur the significant movement of people this century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/car-driving-through-water-on-flooded-2209624689">Ajax9/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>In Niue, Papua New Guinea and the Marshall Islands, a recent <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206190120">study</a> showed that people’s sense of belonging and their capacity to maintain a sense of unity, even when many of them are emigrating, affected the long-term stability of remaining populations. Current patterns of emigration by working-age adults from these areas reduce pressure on natural resources in the origin islands, while the emigrant populations in Australia and New Zealand still support and promote their communities in the island nations. </p>
<p>In this way, population levels in the islands are kept stable and people there are less directly dependent on fishing and farming, as their income and ability to invest locally is increased through remittances. According to <a href="https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/profile/851570-sergio-jarillo-de-la-torre">Sergio Jarillo</a> and <a href="https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/profile/8871-jon-barnett">Jon Barnett</a> from the University of Melbourne, it is this sense of belonging that “binds the people who live in and migrate from these places into a collective commitment to the continuity” of these island communities, which are threatened by climate change.</p>
<p>It is crucial to consider the impact of migration in the places people leave behind, as well as their new homes. At a global level, migrants remain rare (most people live close to where they were born) and international migrants even rarer, with those displaced by conflict or disaster rarer still. Most media attention on environmental migration to date has concerned people fleeing conflict or disasters, and so-called climate refugees.</p>
<p>Most migrants fleeing conflict or disaster end up concentrated in a few places relatively near to where they have fled from, creating significant new demands on water, food and waste services. As such, it is the clustering of people in one place, not migration itself, that poses the greatest challenges for sustainability.</p>
<p>The world’s largest refugee camps, home to those displaced because of conflict and disaster, are regularly in places that <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206189120">are vulnerable to climate change</a>. The Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, for example, have regularly been made uninhabitable by flooding in recent years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of people stood amid waterlogged soil with tin houses in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fleeing persecution in Myanmar, over 700,000 Rohingya people have sought shelter in Bangladesh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coxs-bazar-january-26-2018-muslim-1034950948">Hafizie Shabudin/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Addressing migration and the environment together</h2>
<p>Sustainability and migration are often managed separately. Yet we need new policies that manage migration in the interests of people and the planet, now and into the future. This includes focusing on the largest reason people move, known as “regular” migration: to find new economic and life opportunities. </p>
<p>For regular migration flows, planning is needed in destination areas to meet the increased demand for housing, employment and services. When new populations are integrated into communities with urban planning, the cities tend to work better for them and they feel more invested in their new homes. Such measures have <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1758-5899.12855">been shown</a> to create a positive environment for growth and reduce social tensions. </p>
<p>City planners in Chattogram in Bangladesh, for example, listened to migrants through forums and discussion groups, and have begun to amend their infrastructure plans to improve the city’s informal settlements and provide clean water. </p>
<p>Governments also need to minimise the displacement of people as a result of environmental degradation and climate change in the first place, which amounts to a fundamental breach of their rights to a secure life.</p>
<p>Ultimately, we need to reset how migration is discussed in society – away from simple tropes that paint it as a threat, towards using evidence of its consequences for economies, environments and social cohesion. </p>
<p>Realising the potential of migration to enhance sustainability requires seeing the benefits and costs to society in the round – not putting migration and sustainability <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206184120">in separate boxes working against each other</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonja Fransen received funding from the Dutch Scientific Council (NWO) for the MISTY project, and an institutional Comprehensive Innovation grant from UNU-MERIT.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Adger receives funding from International Development Research Centre, Canada; Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, UK; National Institute for Health Research, UK; Economic and Social Research Council, UK; and the European Commission Horizon 2020 programme. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ricardo Safra de Campos receives funding from International Development Research Centre, Canada; Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, UK; National Institute for Health Research, UK; Economic and Social Research Council, UK; and the European Commission Horizon 2020 programme.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William C. Clark receives funding from Italy's Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through its gift to Harvard University’s Sustainability Science Program.
</span></em></p>Migration is considered an inevitable effect of climate change. It could also be part of the solution.Sonja Fransen, Senior Researcher, Migration and Development, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityNeil Adger, Professor of Human Geography, University of ExeterRicardo Safra de Campos, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography, University of ExeterWilliam C. Clark, Professor of International Science, Public Policy and Human Development, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200032023-12-21T13:46:38Z2023-12-21T13:46:38ZAI could improve your life by removing bottlenecks between what you want and what you get<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566649/original/file-20231219-15-9kiud5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5499%2C3695&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Want to turn many experiences from the equivalent of ordering from a menu to getting a personalized meal? AI is poised to help.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/humanoid-robot-chef-cooks-dishes-in-a-restaurant-royalty-free-image/1205789278">Julia Garan/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Artificial intelligence is poised to upend much of society, removing human limitations inherent in many systems. One such limitation is information and logistical bottlenecks in decision-making.</p>
<p>Traditionally, people have been forced to reduce complex choices to a small handful of options that don’t do justice to their true desires. Artificial intelligence has the potential to remove that limitation. And it has the potential to drastically change how democracy functions.</p>
<p>AI researcher <a href="https://tantum.substack.com/p/democracy-on-mars-red-sky-thinking">Tantum</a> <a href="https://tantum.substack.com/p/democracy-on-mars-3-new-tools-for">Collins</a> and I, a <a href="https://www.schneier.com/">public-interest technology scholar</a>, call this AI overcoming “lossy bottlenecks.” <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/lossy">Lossy</a> is a term from <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/information-theory">information theory</a> that refers to imperfect communications channels – that is, channels that lose information. </p>
<h2>Multiple-choice practicality</h2>
<p>Imagine your next sit-down dinner and being able to have a long conversation with a chef about your meal. You could end up with a bespoke dinner based on your desires, the chef’s abilities and the available ingredients. This is possible if you are cooking at home or hosted by accommodating friends.</p>
<p>But it is infeasible at your average restaurant: The limitations of the kitchen, the way supplies have to be ordered and the realities of restaurant cooking make this kind of rich interaction between diner and chef impossible. You get a menu of a few dozen standardized options, with the possibility of some modifications around the edges. </p>
<p>That’s a lossy bottleneck. Your wants and desires are rich and multifaceted. The array of culinary outcomes are equally rich and multifaceted. But there’s no scalable way to connect the two. People are forced to use multiple-choice systems like menus to simplify decision-making, and they lose so much information in the process.</p>
<p>People are so used to these bottlenecks that we don’t even notice them. And when we do, we tend to assume they are the inevitable cost of scale and efficiency. And they are. Or, at least, they were.</p>
<h2>The possibilities</h2>
<p>Artificial intelligence has the potential to overcome this limitation. By storing rich representations of people’s preferences and histories on the demand side, along with equally rich representations of capabilities, costs and creative possibilities on the supply side, AI systems <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4123356">enable complex customization at scale and low cost</a>. Imagine walking into a restaurant and knowing that the kitchen has already started work on a meal optimized for your tastes, or being presented with a personalized list of choices.</p>
<p>There have been some early attempts at this. People have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/05/02/chatgpt-ai-meal-planning-diet/">used ChatGPT to design meals</a> based on dietary restrictions and what they have in the fridge. It’s still early days for these technologies, but once they get working, the possibilities are nearly endless. Lossy bottlenecks are everywhere.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Imagine a future AI that knows your dietary wants and needs so well that you wouldn’t need to use detail prompts for meal plans, let alone iterate on them as the nutrition coach in this video does with ChatGPT.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Take labor markets. Employers look to grades, diplomas and certifications to gauge candidates’ suitability for roles. These are a very coarse representation of a job candidate’s abilities. An AI system with access to, for example, a student’s coursework, exams and teacher feedback as well as detailed information about possible jobs could provide much richer assessments of which employment matches do and don’t make sense.</p>
<p>Or apparel. People with money for tailors and time for fittings can get clothes made from scratch, but most of us are limited to mass-produced options. AI could hugely reduce the costs of customization by learning your style, taking measurements based on photos, generating designs that match your taste and using available materials. It would then convert your selections into a series of production instructions and place an order to an AI-enabled robotic production line.</p>
<p>Or software. Today’s computer programs typically use one-size-fits-all interfaces, with only minor room for modification, but individuals have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-70536-5.50029-4">widely varying needs and working styles</a>. AI systems that observe each user’s interaction styles and know what that person wants out of a given piece of software could take this personalization far deeper, completely redesigning interfaces to suit individual needs.</p>
<h2>Removing democracy’s bottleneck</h2>
<p>These examples are all transformative, but the lossy bottleneck that has the largest effect on society is in politics. It’s the same problem as the restaurant. As a complicated citizen, your policy positions are probably nuanced, trading off between different options and their effects. You care about some issues more than others and some implementations more than others. </p>
<p>If you had the knowledge and time, you could engage in the deliberative process and help create better laws than exist today. But you don’t. And, anyway, society can’t hold policy debates involving hundreds of millions of people. So you go to the ballot box and choose between two – or if you are lucky, four or five – individual representatives or political parties. </p>
<p>Imagine a system where AI removes this lossy bottleneck. Instead of trying to cram your preferences to fit into the available options, imagine conveying your political preferences in detail to an AI system that would directly advocate for specific policies on your behalf. This could revolutionize democracy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566388/original/file-20231218-27-lpdxip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a diagram of six vertical columns composed of squares of various white, grey and black shades" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566388/original/file-20231218-27-lpdxip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566388/original/file-20231218-27-lpdxip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566388/original/file-20231218-27-lpdxip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566388/original/file-20231218-27-lpdxip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566388/original/file-20231218-27-lpdxip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566388/original/file-20231218-27-lpdxip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566388/original/file-20231218-27-lpdxip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ballots are bottlenecks that funnel a voter’s diverse views into a few options. AI representations of individual voters’ desires overcome this bottleneck, promising enacted policies that better align with voters’ wishes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://tantum.substack.com/p/democracy-on-mars-3-new-tools-for">Tantum Collins</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One way is by enhancing voter representation. By capturing the nuances of each individual’s political preferences in a way that traditional voting systems can’t, this system could lead to policies that better reflect the desires of the electorate. For example, you could have an AI device in your pocket – your future phone, for instance – that knows your views and wishes and continually <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90257573/mr-robot-goes-to-washington-how-ai-will-change-democracy">votes in your name</a> on an otherwise overwhelming number of issues large and small.</p>
<p>Combined with AI systems that personalize political education, it could encourage more people to participate in the democratic process and increase political engagement. And it could eliminate the problems stemming from elected representatives who reflect only the views of the majority that elected them – and sometimes not even them.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the privacy concerns resulting from allowing an AI such intimate access to personal data are considerable. And it’s important to avoid the pitfall of just allowing the AIs to figure out what to do: Human deliberation is crucial to a functioning democracy.</p>
<p>Also, there is no clear transition path from the representative democracies of today to these AI-enhanced direct democracies of tomorrow. And, of course, this is still science fiction.</p>
<h2>First steps</h2>
<p>These technologies are likely to be used first in other, less politically charged, domains. Recommendation systems for digital media have steadily reduced their reliance on traditional intermediaries. Radio stations are like menu items: Regardless of how nuanced your taste in music is, you have to pick from a handful of options. Early digital platforms were only a little better: “This person likes jazz, so we’ll suggest more jazz.” </p>
<p>Today’s streaming platforms use listener histories and a broad set of features describing each track to provide each user with personalized music recommendations. Similar systems suggest academic papers with far greater granularity than a subscription to a given journal, and movies based on more nuanced analysis than simply deferring to genres.</p>
<p>A world without artificial bottlenecks comes with risks – loss of jobs in the bottlenecks, for example – but it also has the potential to free people from the straightjackets that have long constrained large-scale human decision-making. In some cases – restaurants, for example – the impact on most people might be minor. But in others, like politics and hiring, the effects could be profound.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220003/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Schneier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Life is full of hidden bottlenecks that result from logistical trade-offs between efficiency and your unique needs and desires. AI promises to change this taken-for-granted equation.Bruce Schneier, Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2140532023-12-15T13:22:43Z2023-12-15T13:22:43ZRacism produces subtle brain changes that lead to increased disease risk in Black populations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565115/original/file-20231212-21-79wl3z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C30%2C6659%2C4436&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coping with everyday affronts comes at a cost and requires a certain level of emotional suppression. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/composite-of-portraits-with-varying-shades-of-skin-royalty-free-image/1249641728?phrase=discrimination&searchscope=image%2Cfilm&adppopup=true">RyanJLane/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. is in the midst of a racial reckoning. The COVID-19 pandemic, which took a particularly <a href="https://covidtracking.com/race">heavy toll on Black communities</a>, turned a harsh spotlight on long-standing health disparities that the public could no longer overlook.</p>
<p>Although the health disparities for Black communities have been well known to researchers for decades, the pandemic put real names and faces to these numbers. Compared with white people, Black people are at much greater risk for developing a range of health problems, including <a href="https://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/heart-disease-and-african-americans">heart disease</a>, <a href="https://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/diabetes-and-african-americans">diabetes</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2018.09.009">dementia</a>. For example, Black people are twice as likely as white people to <a href="https://www.alz.org/media/Documents/alzheimers-facts-and-figures.pdf">develop Alzheimer’s disease</a>.</p>
<p>A vast and growing body of research shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-040218-043750">racism contributes to systems that promote health inequities</a>. Most recently, our team has also learned that racism directly contributes to these inequities on a neurobiological level.</p>
<p>We are <a href="https://www.negarfani.com/">clinical</a> <a href="https://www.mcleanhospital.org/profile/nathaniel-harnett">neuroscientists</a> who study the multifaceted ways in which racism affects how our brains develop and function. We use brain imaging to study how trauma such as sexual assault or racial discrimination can cause stress that leads to mental health disorders like depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD. </p>
<p>We have studied trauma in the context of a study known as the <a href="https://www.gradytraumaproject.com/">Grady Trauma Project</a>, which has been running for nearly 20 years. This study is largely focused on the trauma and stress of Black people in the metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, community.</p>
<h2>How discrimination alters the brain</h2>
<p>Racial discrimination is commonly experienced through subtle indignities: a woman clutching her purse as a Black man walks by on the sidewalk, a shopkeeper keeping close watch on a Black woman shopping in a clothing store, a comment about a Black employee being a “diversity hire.” These slights are often referred to as <a href="https://www.med.unc.edu/inclusion/justice-equity-diversity-and-inclusion-j-e-d-i-toolkit/microaggressions-microaffirmations/#">microaggressions</a>.</p>
<p>Decades of research has shown that the everyday burden of these race-related threats, slights and exclusions in day-to-day life translates into a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-040218-043750">real increase in disease risk</a>. But researchers are only beginning to understand how these forms of discrimination affect a person’s biology and overall health.</p>
<p>Our team’s research shows that the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpsc.2022.05.004">everyday burden of racism</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2021.1480">affects the function</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2021.08.011">structure</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41386-022-01445-8">of the brain</a>. In turn, these changes play a major role in risk for health problems.</p>
<p>For instance, our studies show that racial discrimination <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2021.1480">increases the activity of brain regions</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41386-023-01737-7">such as the prefrontal cortex</a>, that are involved in regulating emotions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565418/original/file-20231213-25-bah2a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Scientist and technologist view brain images." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565418/original/file-20231213-25-bah2a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565418/original/file-20231213-25-bah2a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565418/original/file-20231213-25-bah2a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565418/original/file-20231213-25-bah2a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565418/original/file-20231213-25-bah2a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565418/original/file-20231213-25-bah2a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565418/original/file-20231213-25-bah2a6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Negar Fani and a team member view brain images.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Heagney</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This increased activity in prefrontal brain regions occurs because responding to these types of affronts requires high-effort coping strategies, such as suppressing emotions. People who have experienced more racial discrimination also show more activation in brain regions that enable them to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dr.2021.100967">inhibit and suppress anger, shock or sadness</a> so that they can curate a socially acceptable response. </p>
<h2>A cost for overcompensating</h2>
<p>Despite the fact that high-energy coping allows people to manage a constant barrage of threats, this comes at a cost.</p>
<p>The more brain energy you use to suppress, control or manage your feelings, the more energy you take away from the rest of the body. Over time, and without prolonged periods of rest, relief and restoration, this can contribute to other problems, a process that public health researcher <a href="https://psc.isr.umich.edu/news/a-monumental-new-book-weathering-arline-geronimuss-lifes-work/">Arline Geronimus termed “weathering</a>.” Having these brain regions in continual overdrive is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113169">linked with</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007%2Fs12110-010-9078-0">accelerated biological aging</a>, which can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.ssmph.2018.11.003">create vulnerability for health problems</a> and early death. </p>
<p>In our research, we have found that this <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41386-022-01445-8">weathering process is evident</a> in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2021.08.011">gradual degradation</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bpsc.2022.05.004">of brain structure</a>, particularly in the heavily myelinated axons of the brain, known as “<a href="https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/002344.htm#">white matter</a>,” which serve as the brain’s information highways. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565504/original/file-20231213-21-yeiyph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Computer-generated image of white matter tracts in the brain." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565504/original/file-20231213-21-yeiyph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/565504/original/file-20231213-21-yeiyph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565504/original/file-20231213-21-yeiyph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565504/original/file-20231213-21-yeiyph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=293&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565504/original/file-20231213-21-yeiyph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565504/original/file-20231213-21-yeiyph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/565504/original/file-20231213-21-yeiyph.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rendering of white matter fibers − shown in color − throughout the brain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Negar Fani</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/002261.htm">Myelin</a> is a protective sheath around nerve fibers that allows for improved communication between brain cells. Similar to highways for vehicles, without sufficient maintenance of the myelin, degradation will occur. </p>
<p>Erosion in these brain pathways can affect self-regulation, making a person more vulnerable to developing unhealthy coping strategies for stress, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ajp.2015.15060710">emotional eating or substance use</a>. These behaviors, in turn, can increase one’s risk for a wide variety of health problems. </p>
<p>These racism-related changes in the brain, and their direct effects on coping, may help to explain why Black people are twice as likely to develop brain health problems such as <a href="https://www.alz.org/media/Documents/alzheimers-facts-and-figures.pdf">Alzheimer’s disease</a> compared with white people.</p>
<h2>Recognizing racial gaslighting</h2>
<p>In our view, what makes racism particularly insidious and pernicious to the health of Black people is the societal invalidation that accompanies it. This makes racial trauma effectively invisible. Racism, whether it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691616659391">originates from people</a> or from institutional systems, is often rationalized, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.beth.2020.09.001">excused or dismissed</a>. </p>
<p>Such invalidation leads those who experience racism to second-guess themselves: “Am I just being too sensitive?” People who have the temerity to report racist events are often ridiculed or met with skepticism. This <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41578-021-00361-5">extends to</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2372732220984183">academic spheres</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.06.009">as well</a>.</p>
<p>This continual questioning and doubting of the circumstances around racist experiences, or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2017.1403934">racial gaslighting</a>, may be part of what depletes the brain of its resources, causing the weathering that ultimately increases vulnerability to brain health problems.</p>
<p>Interrupting this cycle requires that people learn to identify their biases toward people of color and people in marginalized groups more generally, and to understand how those biases may lead to discriminatory words and behavior. We believe that by finding their blind spots, people can see ways in which their actions and behaviors could be viewed as hurtful, exclusionary or offensive. Through recognition of these experiences as racist, people can become allies rather than skeptics. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.institutionalcourage.org/">Institutions can help</a> to create a culture of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.focus.20220045">healing, validation and support</a> for people of color. A validating, supportive institutional culture may help people of color normalize their reactions to these stressors, in addition to the connection – and restoration – they may find within their communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Negar Fani receives funding from the National Institutes of Health and Emory University School of Medicine. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nathaniel Harnett receives funding from the National Institutes of Health, the Brain and Behavior Research Foundation, and the Presidents and Fellows of Harvard College. </span></em></p>Racial threats and slights take a toll on health, but the continual invalidation and questioning of whether those so-called microaggressions exist has an even more insidious effect, research shows.Negar Fani, Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Neuroscience, Emory UniversityNathaniel Harnett, Assistant Professor of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193602023-12-15T13:22:30Z2023-12-15T13:22:30ZA US ambassador working for Cuba? Charges against former diplomat Victor Manuel Rocha spotlight Havana’s importance in the world of spying<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564965/original/file-20231211-19-9ppems.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C8%2C2830%2C2074&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A U.S. Justice Department image showing Victor Manuel Rocha during a meeting with an FBI undercover employee. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FormerAmbassadorArrested/b4d90c09c592424a9f30e01c3c7a423c/photo">U.S. Department of Justice via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The U.S. Department of Justice announced on Dec. 4, 2023, that Victor Manuel Rocha, a former U.S. government employee, had been arrested and faced federal charges for secretly acting for decades as <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-us-ambassador-and-national-security-council-official-charged-secretly-acting-agent">an agent of the Cuban government</a>. Rocha joined the State Department in 1981 and served for over 20 years, rising to the level of ambassador. After leaving the State Department, he served from 2006-2012 as an <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/manuel-rocha-charged-as-intelligence-mole-for-cuba-served-as-career-us-diplomat-in-latin-america/4919137/">adviser to the U.S. Southern Command</a>, a joint U.S. military command that handles operations in Latin America and the Caribbean.</em></p>
<p><em>Harvard Kennedy School intelligence and national security scholar <a href="https://calderwalton.com/">Calder Walton</a>, author of “<a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Spies/Calder-Walton/9781668000694">Spies: The Epic Intelligence War Between East and West</a>,” provides perspective on what <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-us-ambassador-and-national-security-council-official-charged-secretly-acting-agent">U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland described</a> as “one of the highest-reaching and longest-lasting infiltrations of the United States government by a foreign agent.”</em></p>
<h2>How common is it for spies to embed in foreign governments?</h2>
<p>Every state seeks to place spies in this way. That’s the business of human intelligence: providing insights into a foreign government’s secret intentions and capabilities. </p>
<p>What makes Rocha’s case unusual is the length of his alleged espionage on behalf of Cuba: four decades. It’s important to emphasize the word alleged here – the case is underway, and Rocha has not yet offered a defense, let alone been convicted. </p>
<p>If proved, however, Rocha’s espionage would place him among the longest-serving spies in modern times. Allowing him to operate as a spy in the senior echelons of the U.S. government for so long would represent a staggering U.S. security failure.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/znt03dzlQp8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Victor Manuel Rocha’s arrest is the culmination of a multiyear security investigation.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What can a spy in this kind of position do?</h2>
<p>Typically, an embedded spy would be tasked by his or her recruiting intelligence service to take actions like stealing briefing papers, secret memorandums and other materials that show what decision-makers are thinking. Such work quickly resembles movie scenes – photographing secret documents, swapping information in public places or depositing it under lampposts and bridges. </p>
<p>Having an agent reach ambassador level would be a prize for any foreign intelligence service. Rocha held senior diplomatic postings in South America, including Bolivia, Argentina, Honduras, Mexico and the Dominican Republic. This would have given him, and thus his Cuban handlers, access to valuable intelligence about U.S. policy toward South America — and anything else that crossed his desk. </p>
<p>An embedded spy can also act as an “agent of influence” who works secretly to shape policies of the target government from within. This will be something to look for as the federal government discloses more information to support its charges against Rocha. </p>
<p>Presumably the U.S. intelligence community either already has carried out a damange assessment, or is urgently now conducting one, reviewing what secrets Rocha had access to during his diplomatic service – and whether, as ambassador to Bolivia, he may have shaped U.S. policy at the behest of Cuban intelligence.</p>
<h2>Has Cuban intelligence partnered with Russia, in the past or now?</h2>
<p>Cuban intelligence worked closely with the Soviets during the Cold War. After Fidel Castro took power in Cuba in 1959, Soviet intelligence maintained close personal liaisons with him. Cuba’s intelligence service, the DGI, later known as the DI, received <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Spies/Calder-Walton/9781668000694">early training and support from the KGB</a>, Russia’s former secret police and intelligence agency.</p>
<p>From the 1960s through the 1980s, Cuban intelligence operatives acted as valuable proxies for the KGB in Latin America and various African countries, particularly Angola and Mozambique. But they didn’t just follow Moscow’s direction. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://cri.fiu.edu/faculty/brian-latell/">Brian Latell</a>, a former U.S. intelligence expert on Latin America, has shown, Castro’s intelligence service was often <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781137000019/castrossecrets">far more aggressive</a> than the Soviet Union in supporting communist revolutionary movements in developing countries. Indeed, at times, the KGB had to try to <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Spies/Calder-Walton/9781668000694">rein in Cuban “adventurism</a>.” </p>
<p>One of Cuba’s greatest known espionage feats was recruiting and running a high-flying officer at the U.S. <a href="https://www.dia.mil/">Defense Intelligence Agency</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/True_Believer.html?id=cpksAAAAYAAJ">Ana Montes</a>, who spied for Cuba for 17 years before she was detected and convicted. To the best of my knowledge, there is no publicly avilable U.S. damage assessment of her espionage, but one senior CIA officer told me it was “breathtaking.”</p>
<p>Cuban intelligence recruited Montes while she was a university student and encouraged her to join the Defense Intelligence Agency. There, using a short-wave radio to pass coded messages and encrypted files to handlers, Montes betrayed a massive haul of U.S. secrets, including identities of U.S. intelligence officers and descriptions of U.S. eavesdropping facilities directed against Cuba. </p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Ana Montes spied for Cuba at the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency for 17 years. She returned to her native Puerto Rico in 2023 after serving 20 years in prison.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cuban and Russian intelligence agencies maintained their ties after the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union collapsed. That relationship has only strengthened since Vladimir Putin, an old KGB hand, took power in the Kremlin in 1999. </p>
<p>Putin’s government reopened a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/russia-reopening-spy-base-cuba-us-relations-sour">massive old Soviet signals intelligence facility in Cuba</a>, <a href="https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/cia-rdp80t01782r000100710001-8">near Havana</a>. This facility had been the Soviet Union’s largest foreign signals intelligence station in the world, with aerials and antennae pointed at Florida shores just 100 miles away. </p>
<p>Soviet records reveal that Moscow <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">obtained valuable information from U.S. military bases in Florida</a>. Russia may well still be trying to try to eavesdrop on U.S. targets today from Cuba, although the U.S. government is doubtless alert to such efforts and is likely undertaking countermeasures.</p>
<p>Cuban intelligence today is also collaborating with China, which reportedly plans to open <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-to-host-secret-chinese-spy-base-focusing-on-u-s-b2fed0e0">its own eavesdropping station in Cuba</a>. Beijing has significant influence over Cuba as its largest creditor and, following in Soviet footsteps, views the island as a valuable intelligence collection base and a “bridgehead” — the KGB’s old code name for Cuba — for influence in Latin America.</p>
<h2>If Rocha is proved guilty, how would he rank historically among other spies?</h2>
<p>It remains to be seen what damage Rocha may have done while allegedly working as a Cuban spy. His tenure in the U.S. government, however, would place him right up there with the most successful, and thus damaging, spies in modern history. </p>
<p>The longest-running Soviet foreign intelligence agent in Britain, Melita Norwood, <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">spied for the KGB for four decades</a>. When she was exposed in 1999, the unrepentant 87-year-old great-grandmother was quickly dubbed “the great granny spy” in the British tabloid press. </p>
<p>In the United States, the highest Soviet penetration of the executive branch was probably <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">Lauchlin Currie</a>, who was President Franklin Roosevelt’s White House assistant during World War II. Records obtained after the Soviet Union’s collapse reveal that <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">Currie acted as a Soviet agent</a>. </p>
<p>The greatest damage to U.S. national security, however, was done in the 1980s and 1990s by <a href="https://www.usni.org/press/books/circle-treason">Aldrich Ames at the CIA</a> and <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/A-Spy-in-Plain-Sight/Lis-Wiehl/9781639364572">Robert Hanssen at the FBI</a>. Each man betrayed a wealth of secrets, including U.S. intelligence operations. The information that Ames stole for the Soviets led to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/06/12/naming-those-betrayed-by-ames/5ed7accf-bcdd-4b8a-9de5-75a2b422044a/">arrest and execution</a> of Soviet agents working for U.S. intelligence behind the Iron Curtain. </p>
<p>In due course, we will find out whether Rocha occupies a place of similar ignominy in U.S. history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Calder Walton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cuba gets less attention as an espionage threat than Russia or China, but is a potent player in the spy world. Its intelligence service has already penetrated the US government at least once.Calder Walton, Assistant Director, Applied History Project and Intelligence Project, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2163212023-10-27T14:27:50Z2023-10-27T14:27:50ZHow to redesign social media algorithms to bridge divides<p>Social media platforms have been implicated in conflicts of all scales, from <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/09/jarell-jackson-shahjahan-mccaskill-killed-philadelphia-social-media/674760/">urban gun violence</a> to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/01/17/jan6-committee-report-social-media/">storming of the US Capitol building</a> on January 6 and <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N16/350/68/PDF/N1635068.pdf?OpenElement">civil war in South Sudan</a>. Scientifically, it is <a href="https://theconversation.com/misinformation-why-it-may-not-necessarily-lead-to-bad-behaviour-199123">difficult to tell</a> how much social media can be blamed for one-off incidents. </p>
<p>But in much the way that climate change increases the risk of extreme weather, evidence suggests that current algorithms (which mostly <a href="https://medium.com/understanding-recommenders/how-platform-recommenders-work-15e260d9a15a">optimise for engagement</a>) raise the political “temperature” by disproportionately surfacing inflammatory content. This <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.16941">may make people angrier</a>, increasing the risk that social differences <a href="https://knightcolumbia.org/content/the-algorithmic-management-of-polarization-and-violence-on-social-media">escalate to violence</a>.</p>
<p>But what if we redesigned social media to bridge divides? “<a href="https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/bridging-based-ranking">Bridging-based ranking</a>” is an alternative kind of algorithm for ranking content in social media feeds that explicitly aims to build mutual understanding and trust across differing perspectives.</p>
<p>The core logic of bridging-based ranking has already been used on <a href="https://bridging.systems/facebook-papers/">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://communitynotes.twitter.com/guide/en/about/introduction">X</a> (formerly known as Twitter), albeit not in the main feed. It is also used in <a href="https://pol.is/home">Polis</a>, an online platform for collecting public input, used by several governments to inform policymaking on polarised topics. </p>
<p>There are many open questions, but evidence from existing uses of bridging-based ranking suggests that changes to algorithms may <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.13912">reduce partisan animosity</a> and <a href="https://bridging.systems/facebook-papers/">improve the quality and inclusiveness</a> of online interactions.</p>
<p>People are increasingly looking for alternative algorithms. Regulators <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/25/quiet-qutting-ai/">in the EU</a> and new platforms <a href="https://blueskyweb.xyz/blog/3-30-2023-algorithmic-choice">such as Bluesky</a> are giving users choice regarding which algorithm determines what they see, and recent <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/does-social-media-polarize-voters-unprecedented-experiments-facebook-users-reveal">large-scale experiments on Facebook</a> have tested different options.</p>
<p>If we care about social cohesion, then during this period of “shopping around” we need to seriously consider alternatives such as bridging.</p>
<h2>How it works</h2>
<p>Current <a href="https://medium.com/understanding-recommenders/how-platform-recommenders-work-15e260d9a15a">engagement-based algorithms</a> make predictions about which posts are most likely to generate clicks, likes, shares or views – and use these predictions to rank the most engaging content at the top of your feed. This tends to amplify the most polarising voices, because divisive perspectives are very engaging.</p>
<p><a href="https://bridging.systems/">Bridging-based ranking</a> uses a different set of signals to determine which content gets ranked highly. One approach is to increase the rank of content that receives positive feedback from people who normally disagree. This creates an incentive for content producers to be mindful of how their content will land with “the other side”.</p>
<p>Among the <a href="https://bridging.systems/facebook-papers/">internal Facebook documents</a> leaked by whistleblower Frances Haugen in 2021, there is evidence that Facebook tested this approach for ranking comments. </p>
<p>Comments with positive engagement from diverse audiences were found to be of higher quality, and “much less likely” to be reported for bullying, hate or inciting violence. A similar strategy is used in <a href="https://communitynotes.twitter.com/guide/en/about/introduction">Community Notes</a>, a crowd-sourced fact checking feature on X, to identify notes that are helpful to people on both sides of politics.</p>
<p>This pattern of “diverse positive feedback” is the most widely implemented approach to bridging. Others include <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.13912">lowering the ranking</a> of content that promotes partisan violence, or using surveys to shape algorithms so that they increase the ranking of content according to <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/platforms-engagement-research-meta/">how it makes users feel in the long term</a>, rather than the short term.</p>
<p>Conflict is an important part of society, and in many cases, a key driver of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/586859">political and social change</a>. The goal of bridging is not to eliminate conflict or disagreement, but to promote constructive forms of conflict.</p>
<p>This is known as <a href="https://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/transformation">conflict transformation</a>. Professional mediators, facilitators and “peacebuilders”, who work with opposing groups, have a detailed understanding of <a href="https://knightcolumbia.org/content/the-algorithmic-management-of-polarization-and-violence-on-social-media">how conflicts escalate</a>. They also know how to structure communication between opposing groups in ways that build mutual understanding and trust.</p>
<p>Research on bridging-based ranking can draw on this, taking insights from conflict management in the physical world and <a href="https://scripties.uba.uva.nl/search?id=record_24357">translating</a> them <a href="https://howtobuildup.medium.com/archetypes-of-polarization-on-social-media-d56d4374fb25">into digital systems</a>. </p>
<p>For example, facilitating contact between people from rival groups in “opt in”, non-threatening settings <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijintrel.2011.03.001">can reduce prejudice</a>, and we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2311627120">can</a> <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-023-01655-0">design</a> social platforms to create these conditions online.</p>
<h2>Why should big tech adopt this?</h2>
<p>Firms such as Meta have built their fortune on the “attention economy” and content which promotes short-term engagement, and hence revenue.</p>
<p>We simply don’t yet know the extent to which the goals of bridging and engagement are in tension. If you talk to people who work at social media platforms, they will tell you that when well-intended changes to the algorithm are tested, user engagement sometimes drops initially, but then slowly rebounds over time, ultimately ending up with more engagement.</p>
<p>The problem is, platforms normally get cold feet and cancel experiments before they can observe such long-term benefits. Evidence we <em>do</em> have from <a href="https://bridging.systems/facebook-papers/">leaked Facebook papers</a> suggests that incorporating bridging <a href="https://youtu.be/ePh_DVi3dMM">improves the user experience</a>.</p>
<p>Bridging-based ranking might also have benefits beyond engagement. By reducing <a href="https://lukethorburn.com/files/BridgingBasedRanking-PluralitySpringSymposium.pdf#page=13">toxicity</a> and content that <a href="https://bridging.systems/facebook-papers/">violates community guidelines</a>, it would likely reduce the need for costly content moderation.</p>
<p>Demonstrating a willingness to make their algorithms less divisive would also build goodwill among regulators, reducing the risk of reputational and legal damage. For example, Facebook has been heavily criticised for allegedly facilitating incitements to violence in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46105934">Myanmar</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/07/sri-lanka-blocks-social-media-as-deadly-violence-continues-buddhist-temple-anti-muslim-riots-kandy">Sri Lanka</a>, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/14/meta-faces-lawsuit-over-facebook-posts-inciting-violence-in-tigray-war">Ethiopia</a>. </p>
<p>It has subsequently faced lawsuits from victims and communities, who have sought <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/dec/06/rohingya-sue-facebook-myanmar-genocide-us-uk-legal-action-social-media-violence">up to £150 billion</a> in damages.</p>
<h2>Questions and challenges</h2>
<p>Important questions around bridging-based ranking remain, and we set out many of these in a <a href="https://knightcolumbia.org/content/bridging-systems">recent paper</a> published with the Knight First Amendment Institute, which publishes original scholarship and policy papers relating to the defence of freedoms of speech and the press in the digital age. </p>
<p>Which divides should be bridged? Are there unintended consequences – for example, amplifying mainstream views at the expense of minority viewpoints? How can decisions about the design of mass communication technologies be made democratically?</p>
<p>Bridging is not a panacea. There is only so much algorithmic changes can do to address societal conflict, which is a result of complex factors such as inequality. But by recognising that digital platforms are reshaping society, we have an obligation to guide that process in an ethical, humanistic direction that brings out the best in us.</p>
<p>It falls to both the tech companies that built these systems and an engaged public to create technologies designed for social cohesion. With care, wisdom and democratic oversight, we can foster online communities that reflect our better sides. But we have to make that choice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216321/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aviv Ovadya is affiliated with the the Berkman Klein Center at Harvard, the AI & Democracy Foundation, the newDemocracy Foundation, and the Centre for Governance of AI. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Thorburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Algorithms have been blamed for dividing society. What if they could support social cohesion instead?Luke Thorburn, PhD Candidate in Safe and Trusted AI, King's College LondonAviv Ovadya, Affiliate at the Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2120802023-10-05T18:16:25Z2023-10-05T18:16:25ZCalling the war in Ukraine a ‘tragedy’ shelters its perpetrators from blame and responsibility<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550446/original/file-20230926-17-5hu4bd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C26%2C5964%2C3961&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Labeling a Russian rocket attack that killed 12 people in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, as a 'tragedy' sidelines human accountabilty.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/restaurant-workers-whose-colleagues-died-by-a-russian-news-photo/1513446720">Yan Dobronosov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to cause unspeakable, unimaginable suffering. By now, the word “tragedy” is firmly installed in the lexicon of the war and has become almost a cliche. </p>
<p>Journalists <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/one-month-on-how-a-tragedy-has-unfolded-in-ukraine-russia-war">record</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/2/24/photos-russia-ukraine-war-images-capture-a-year-of-war-russia-u">tragedies</a> in Ukraine in their <a href="https://www.wfp.org/stories/war-ukraine-how-humanitarian-tragedy-fed-global-hunger-crisis">many</a> <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/77d3689d-efd4-473e-99e6-1ea6f56b7d7f">heartbreaking</a> <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/tens-of-thousands-of-ukrainian-children-bear-tragedy-of-war-/6975329.html">manifestations</a>. Marking the first anniversary of the war in February 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden said, “This war was never a necessity; <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/21/remarks-by-president-biden-ahead-of-the-one-year-anniversary-of-russias-brutal-and-unprovoked-invasion-of-ukraine/">it’s a tragedy</a>.”</p>
<p>The label of “tragedy” is liberally applied to most every development in this war. Russia’s breach of the Kakhovka dam on June 6, 2023, and the humanitarian and ecological disaster it caused was “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/kherson-flooding-kakhovka-dam-ukraine-russia-dnieper-f1730cdcdae7042e5089ecd0c542e667">the latest tragedy</a>,” according to an Associated Press headline.</p>
<p>That “latest” was not the last: On June 27, a Russian missile strike on a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/28/europe/kramatorsk-deadly-strike-ukraine-war-intl/index.html">pizzeria in Kramatorsk</a> killed 12, among them <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/03/ukrainian-writer-victoria-amelina-dies-after-being-wounded-in-kramatorsk-strike">Viktoria Amelina</a>, a 37-year-old Ukrainian writer and researcher of Russian war crimes. Joining an outpouring of anguish and grief on social media, one commentator wrote of Russia’s deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilians: “What Russia is doing is absolutely pointless, which makes it <a href="https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1675789211494916096?s=20">all the more tragic</a>.”</p>
<p>Many more tragedies followed: <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/russian-air-strike-damages-transfiguration-cathedral-odesa-180982616/">the destruction</a> of Odesa’s <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-hits-critical-port-facilities-in-odesa-in-second-night-of-attacks-after-kremlin-halts-grain-deal">port infrastructure</a> and UNESCO-protected Transfiguration Cathedral, a missile strike on an apartment building in <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-lviv-missile-attack-dead-russia-invasion-zelenskiy-counteroffensive/32491484.html">Lviv in July</a> and a massive missile attack on a number of <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-missile-strike-targets-six-ukrainian-cities/32602567.html">Ukrainian cities</a> in September. On October 5, a Russian missile strike in northeastern Ukraine reportedly killed 51 people attending a memorial service, which was “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-attack-kills-49-northeast-ukraine-ukrainian-officials-say-2023-10-05/">a terrible tragedy</a>,” in the words of Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.</p>
<p>Tragedy is a word used ubiquitously by Ukraine empathizers discussing the horrors of the war in Ukraine. But, it turns out, the word tragedy is also popular with autocrats who are responsible for bringing those events about – but have no intention of admitting their responsibility.</p>
<h2>Dictators and tragedy</h2>
<p>In July 2014, after a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/08/1155401602/malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17-putin-missiles-investigation">Russian missile downed a Malaysia Airlines airliner</a> over eastern Ukraine, killing 298 people, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the incident a <a href="http://special.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60797">tragedy</a>, while denying Russian responsibility for it. </p>
<p>When Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was murdered in 2015, Putin referred to the <a href="http://time.com/3731849/putin-political-killings-shame-and-tragedy/">“shame and tragedies”</a> of political killings in Russia. </p>
<p>And in 2022, Putin unleashed an unprovoked war against Ukraine and then went on to call it <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64055018">“a shared tragedy”</a> for both Ukraine and Russia. </p>
<p>Similar to Putin, Ukraine’s own former president, Moscow-supported kleptocrat <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29761799">Viktor Yanukovych</a>, ousted by popular protests in 2014 and complicit in Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea that year, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/03/world/europe/deposed-ukrainian-leader-calls-crimea-annexation-a-tragedy.html">called the annexation a tragedy,</a> denying that either he or Putin were responsible for the land grab. </p>
<p>Earlier, in 2006, Yanukovych, then in opposition, had insisted that the Holodomor of 1932-33, a famine that claimed the lives of about 4 million Ukrainians, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/26/AR2008042602039_2.html">was a tragedy</a>, not a premeditated genocide orchestrated by Josef Stalin and his regime.</p>
<p>In dictators’ utterances, the invocation of tragedy is not incidental. Designating something a tragedy is meaningfully different than calling it an atrocity or a crime, for which the wrongdoer must be held responsible and punished. Calling it a tragedy serves to minimize the human responsibility, typically their own, from the causes of the “tragedy.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550447/original/file-20230926-25-u6hmw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A flame burns in wreckage near a group of people at the site of a destroyed airplane." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550447/original/file-20230926-25-u6hmw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550447/original/file-20230926-25-u6hmw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550447/original/file-20230926-25-u6hmw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550447/original/file-20230926-25-u6hmw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550447/original/file-20230926-25-u6hmw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550447/original/file-20230926-25-u6hmw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550447/original/file-20230926-25-u6hmw1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin called the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine in 2014 a ‘tragedy,’ though it was shot down by a Russian missile.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-stand-on-july-17-amongst-the-wreckages-of-the-news-photo/452285540">Dominique Faget/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Choosing words with care</h2>
<p>Words are not just passive descriptions. They create meaning in the world and help people understand how to think about events. This is particularly true of abstract concepts we use in political conversation.</p>
<p>In everyday speech, people use the word tragedy to describe anything deeply upsetting and unfortunate. Merriam-Webster’s online dictionary <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tragedy">defines</a> the word tragedy as a disastrous event or misfortune. Merriam-Webster’s thesaurus <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/thesaurus/tragedy">offers further synomyms</a>: calamity, catastrophe, misfortune, mishap, misadventure, accident. Most of those synonyms refer to or imply the working of forces beyond human control.</p>
<p>Those connotations come from the origins of the word tragedy and its meaning. Tragedy originated in ancient Greece as an art form that most poignantly reveals the mystery of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/art/tragedy-literature">interplay between fate and free will</a>. A classical tragic hero is a man, usually of noble birth, who is fated to doom and destruction by the gods. During his rebellion against that unjust fate, a tragic hero nevertheless commits errors. </p>
<p>In his <a href="https://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/poetics.2.2.html">Poetics</a>, the ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle argued that the tragic hero’s flaw is not due to his wickedness but merely an unwitting error of judgment: After all, he is not an omniscient god but only human. And so the tragic hero’s plight ends either in his demise or the humbling of his pride.</p>
<p>In his famous 1949 New York Times essay “Tragedy and the Common Man,” American playwright Arthur Miller described the tragic hero’s plight as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/books/00/11/12/specials/miller-common.html">active retaliation against circumstances he deems demeaning and unjust</a>. According to Miller, the “tragic flaw” is ultimately the hero’s “inherent unwillingness to remain passive in the face of what he conceives to be a challenge to his dignity, his image of his rightful status.” In Miller’s words, the lesson of the tragedy is the discovery of a moral law.</p>
<p>Tragedy, then, in its deeper original sense, implies inadvertence and inevitability: Unintended consequences of individual choices, originally driven by a noble quest for justice and personal dignity, ultimately crash against the firmament of divine designs and systemic factors beyond human control.</p>
<h2>Russia’s war on Ukraine is first a crime and only then a tragedy</h2>
<p>In contemporary politics, the invocation of tragedy has the unfortunate effect of masking the responsibility of perpetrators who cause injustices and human suffering through malicious intent and deliberate wrongdoing.</p>
<p>Ukraine’s fight for its survival is indeed heroic, but not in a tragic sense. It is engaged not in a struggle against unjust fate decreed by the gods but against a <a href="https://abc7chicago.com/putin-arrest-warrant-russia-ukraine/12968196/">criminal aggressor</a>, Russia led by President Putin, who <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181">has claimed</a> that Ukraine has no right to exist as a political entity and a people and set out to wage a cruel and destructive war against it. </p>
<p>There is nothing inadvertent about the killing of Boris Nemtsov in 2015 or Viktoria Amelina in 2023. There is nothing inevitable about the Russian onslaught in Ukraine, about the killing, maiming and raping of its people <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-children-taken-ukraine/32527298.html">and kidnapping of its children</a>.</p>
<p>Russia’s behavior and the suffering it brings about is a brazen affront to international law and the basic human dignity this law seeks to uphold. So far, 80,000 alleged war crimes <a href="https://apnews.com/article/congress-ukraine-russia-war-crimes-torture-1015b6b6393489d088b0980225ff4509">have been documented</a> for prosecution before a court of law and an international tribunal. </p>
<p>Until that happens, it is best to keep a clear mind and use precise vocabulary: Russia has committed aggression, and its forces continue to commit atrocities in Ukraine. The nation’s responsibility for these crimes should not hide behind the label of “tragedy.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212080/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mariana Budjeryn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Calling something a ‘tragedy’ serves to minimize human responsibility for its causes, which can be convenient for the people who are causing the ‘tragedy.’Mariana Budjeryn, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2117682023-10-04T03:56:59Z2023-10-04T03:56:59ZBradfield’s pipedream: irrigating Australia’s deserts won’t increase rainfall, new modelling shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549959/original/file-20230925-19-sjqj2w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C8%2C5467%2C3647&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/long-awaited-rain-storm-one-drop-1541576591">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For generations, Australians have been fascinated with the idea of turning our inland deserts green with lush vegetation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/leaders-tout-bradfield-scheme-options-in-queensland-election-fight-20191101-p536o2.html">Both sides</a> of politics have supported proposals to irrigate the country’s centre by turning northern rivers inland. Proponents have argued water lost to evaporation would rise through the atmosphere and fall back as rain, spreading the benefits throughout the desert. But this claim has hardly ever been tested.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL103913">recently published research</a> shows irrigating Australia’s deserts would not increase rainfall, contrary to a century of claims otherwise. </p>
<p>This provides a new argument against irrigating Australia’s deserts, in addition to critiques on economic and environmental grounds.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">What is the Bradfield Scheme? Featuring Griffith University’s Professor Fran Sheldon.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-bradfield-rerouting-rivers-to-recapture-a-pioneering-spirit-127010">'New Bradfield': rerouting rivers to recapture a pioneering spirit</a>
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<h2>The Bradfield scheme</h2>
<p>Proposals to irrigate the country’s centre by diverting water inland date back to at least the 1930s. The person most widely credited with the idea is John Bradfield, the civil engineer who designed the Sydney Harbour Bridge. He <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97050378">proposed a series of dams and tunnels</a> that would transport water from northern Queensland to Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre.</p>
<p>Variants of the original scheme have been proposed <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/a-turning-point-lnp-vows-to-irrigate-drought-addled-western-qld-20201018-p5665l.html">as recently as 2020</a>. The Queensland Liberal National Party campaigned on a policy to build a Bradfield-like scheme in the last state election. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">An aerial view of the Queensland LNP’s ‘new Bradfield scheme’ (Liberal National Party of Queensland, October 2020)</span></figcaption>
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<p>Despite our fascination with it, the Bradfield scheme has well-documented problems. It is not cost-effective and would likely be a disaster for the environment. These findings have been confirmed repeatedly by <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97099323">multiple</a> <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/natural-environment/water/water-resource-assessment/the-bradfield-scheme-assessment">reviews</a>, as recently as <a href="https://www.rdmw.qld.gov.au/water/consultations-initiatives/bradfield-regional-assessment-development-panel">2022</a>.</p>
<p>Yet the idea resurfaces <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-bradfield-rerouting-rivers-to-recapture-a-pioneering-spirit-127010">over and over again</a> and the debate around it remains active and ongoing. </p>
<p>Crossbencher Bob Katter, the federal member for Kennedy in Queensland, is a prominent supporter of the scheme. He <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-09/queensland-government-abandons-bradfield-scheme-after-report/101751678">rejected the critical findings</a> of a <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/natural-environment/water/water-resource-assessment/the-bradfield-scheme-assessment">recent CSIRO review</a> that found the scheme and others like it were not economically viable. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-cant-we-just-build-a-pipe-to-move-water-to-areas-in-drought-123454">Curious Kids: why can't we just build a pipe to move water to areas in drought?</a>
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<h2>Would it increase rainfall?</h2>
<p>Would the Bradfield scheme increase rainfall in central Australia? Given all the debate about the scheme, this question has received surprisingly <a href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-964034842/view?partId=nla.obj-964065417">little</a> <a href="https://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/internal/mcgregor_x2004a.pdf">attention</a>.</p>
<p>Bradfield argued the added irrigation water would effectively <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97050378">double or triple the region’s rainfall</a>:</p>
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<p>This irrigation water would augment the average rainfall of the district from 10 to 20 inches per annum […] Sceptics and croakers say the water will evaporate or seep away […] [but] it will not go far.</p>
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<p>To test Bradfield’s claim, we turned to climate models. In a collaboration between scientists at the University of Melbourne, Harvard University, National Taiwan University and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, we simulated two worlds: one with a Bradfield-like scheme and one without it. </p>
<p>In our model of the Bradfield-like scheme, we permanently filled the region around Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre with water. That differs a bit from Bradfield’s original scheme but captures the basic idea. If anything, it is more extreme than Bradfield’s scheme. If Bradfield is right, we would expect our scheme’s effects on rainfall to be even larger.</p>
<p>Our simulations showed no significant increase in rainfall. This may sound surprising but can be explained with basic physical arguments.</p>
<h2>Why no rain?</h2>
<p>Rain forms when moist air rises. As it rises, temperatures drop, water condenses from vapour to liquid and clouds form. </p>
<p>Hot air rises, so high temperatures near the surface can promote rainfall. But in our simulations, irrigating the surface led to evaporative cooling of the air. The colder air did not rise as much, and rainfall was suppressed.</p>
<p>Where does all that extra water go? In our simulations, the water evaporated and was blown all over the Australian continent by wind. The additional water ended up being spread thinly over a large area. When it did eventually rain out, the effect on local rainfall was tiny.</p>
<p>Climate models aren’t perfect and have known weaknesses in simulating rainfall. But the basic explanation for the small change in rainfall can be understood without appealing to climate models. </p>
<p>Could irrigating a larger region, or a different part of the country, change the results? Maybe, and we are looking into it. But the Bradfield scheme is already <a href="https://www.rdmw.qld.gov.au/water/consultations-initiatives/bradfield-regional-assessment-development-panel">not cost effective</a>. Making the scheme larger or moving it away from natural flow paths would only make this problem worse.</p>
<p>Previous reviews of the Bradfield scheme have mainly focused on the economics of the scheme. Australian economist <a href="https://www.rdmw.qld.gov.au/water/consultations-initiatives/bradfield-regional-assessment-development-panel">Ross Garnaut’s report</a> in December 2022 is the most recent to find the scheme is economically unviable. </p>
<p>Our study provides a new argument against the Bradfield scheme, separate to economic arguments.</p>
<p>The idea of transforming our dry continent is seductive. But our study shows no plausible engineering scheme would be capable of making it rain enough to do so. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-cant-drought-proof-australia-and-trying-is-a-fools-errand-124504">We can’t drought-proof Australia, and trying is a fool's errand</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211768/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kaighin McColl receives funding from the National Science Foundation, NASA, the Sloan Foundation, the Sahara Project, and Harvard University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dongryeol Ryu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows turning northern rivers inland to irrigate Australia’s dry interior would not increase rainfall. This is another argument against the Bradfield scheme.Kaighin McColl, Assistant Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Environmental Science and Engineering, Harvard UniversityDongryeol Ryu, Professor, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.