tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/lulea-university-of-technology-2257/articlesLuleå University of Technology2023-09-20T10:05:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139302023-09-20T10:05:16Z2023-09-20T10:05:16ZEffondrement des barrages en Libye : un expert en ingénierie s'interroge sur la gestion de l'ouvrage<p><em>Plus de <a href="https://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/inondations-meurtrieres-en-libye-les-deux-barrages-de-derna-etaient-fissures-16-09-2023-ZYN4XYYZBJCGLJOQH2UKKC3F24.php">11 000 personnes</a> ont été tuées et des dizaines de milliers sont portées disparues à la suite de l'effondrement catastrophique de <a href="https://www.arabiaweather.com/fr/content/infographie-les-causes-combines-de-la-catastrophe-de-derna">deux barrages</a> dans la ville de Derna, dans l'est de la Libye. L'effondrement du barrage s'est produit après qu'une tempête extrême, la tempête Daniel, s'est abattue sur ce pays d'Afrique du Nord. Moina Spooner, de The Conversation Africa, a demandé à Nadhir Al-Ansari, expert en ressources en eau et en ingénierie, qui a effectué des recherches sur la <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1001627916000020">conception</a> et la <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342270305_Dam_Safety_General_Considerations">sécurité</a> des barrages, d'apporter des éclairages sur cette catastrophe.</em></p>
<h2>Comment les conditions météorologiques extrêmes affectent-elles la stabilité des barrages ?</h2>
<p>Les barrages sont généralement construits pour résister à de fortes précipitations ou à la sécheresse. La conception et la construction d'un barrage tiennent compte de tous les effets possibles. Tous les facteurs sont pris en considération lors de la planification d'un barrage, notamment le type de matériaux de construction, la conception des fondations et la stabilité d'un barrage, ainsi que les inondations et les tremblements de terre prévus, voire même les opérations militaires.</p>
<p>Outre la construction du barrage, des mesures de sécurité doivent être mises en place. Par exemple, en cas de tempête, les ingénieurs doivent libérer l'eau pour s'assurer que la capacité de stockage maximale du barrage n'est pas dépassée.</p>
<p>Dans le cas de la Libye, je pense que la gestion des barrages n'était pas adéquate. L'ingénieur responsable du barrage aurait dû s'assurer que l'eau ne dépassait pas la capacité de stockage maximale du barrage. Lorsqu'il a remarqué qu'un énorme volume d'eau entrait dans le réservoir, il aurait dû libérer de grandes quantités d'eau pour maintenir le niveau du réservoir en dessous de sa limite maximale. </p>
<p>Les recherches montrent que les <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342270305_Dam_Safety_General_Considerations">principales causes de défaillance des barrages</a> sont les problèmes de fondation (40 %), un déversoir inadéquat (23 %), une mauvaise construction (12 %) et un tassement irrégulier (10 %). Le site d'un barrage n'est pas toujours plat, car les barrages sont construits dans des zones montagneuses, mais les concepteurs doivent en tenir compte. La conception du barrage doit être adaptée à la topographie. Parmi les causes plus rares de rupture de barrage, on trouve les actes de guerre (3 %), les matériaux défectueux (2 %) et les tremblements de terre (1 %). </p>
<p>Dans le cas de la Libye, une mauvaise gestion semble avoir été la cause de l'effondrement du barrage.</p>
<h2>Cette tragédie aurait-elle pu être évitée ?</h2>
<p>Oui, si les responsables de l'exploitation des barrages avaient ouvert les vannes pour libérer l'eau. Lorsque les responsables de la gestion de l'eau du barrage ignorent les fortes précipitations, on peut s'attendre à ce que de telles catastrophes se produisent. </p>
<p>Les gestionnaires de barrages doivent également connaître la zone de captage de chaque barrage et les prévisions de précipitations. Cela nécessite une coordination entre les météorologues et le personnel responsable de la gestion des barrages. Lorsque de fortes précipitations sont attendues, le service météorologique doit en informer les gestionnaires des barrages, qui peuvent alors prendre des dispositions pour libérer de l'eau afin de les maintenir dans leurs limites opérationnelles. C'est la pratique habituelle dans tous les barrages que j'ai <a href="http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?dswid=-6381&pid=diva2%3A1370665">étudiés en Irak</a>. </p>
<p>En l'occurrence, il doit y avoir eu un dysfonctionnement dans la communication entre les services de météorologie et les ingénieurs chargés de la gestion des barrages.</p>
<h2>Comment les ingénieurs et les autorités contrôlent-ils généralement l'intégrité structurelle des barrages ?</h2>
<p>Les barrages doivent bénéficier d'un programme d'inspection régulier qui prend en compte toutes les parties du barrage. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342270305_Dam_Safety_General_Considerations">Tous les pays</a> dotés de barrages, qu'il s'agisse États-Unis, de l'Irak ou de la Suède, effectuent des inspections régulières. Il devrait y avoir des instruments pour surveiller les fissures dans les parois d'un barrage et tout changement dans sa structure. Une fois identifiés, ils doivent faire l'objet d'une intervention immédiate. </p>
<p>Dans le cas de la Libye, si les vannes avaient été ouvertes pour maintenir l'eau dans les limites de la capacité de stockage du barrage, l'effondrement des barrages aurait causé moins de dégâts.</p>
<h2>Existe-t-il de nouvelles technologies ou des innovations permettant d'améliorer la sécurité ?</h2>
<p>Il existe un certain nombre de modèles et de techniques, et chaque barrage dispose de son propre modèle ou sa propre technique que le concepteur propose. La planification des événements météorologiques extrêmes se fait généralement dans la phase de conception du barrage. Le concepteur est censé fournir un rapport détaillé sur la stabilité du barrage en fonction de différents facteurs, y compris les conditions météorologiques. </p>
<p>Différents scénarios sont établis en fonction du niveau d'eau dans le réservoir du barrage afin d'éviter des défaillances. Le gouvernement concerné doit savoir ce qu'il faut faire en cas de défaillance du barrage, en s'appuyant sur les informations fournies par le concepteur. Par exemple, dans <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10706-020-01355-w">mon étude</a> du barrage irakien de Mossoul, qui a eu lieu après la construction du barrage, j'ai suggéré qu'un barrage de protection soit construit en aval pour assurer la sécurité de la zone en aval et de sa population. Des mesures de sécurité peuvent être prises même après la construction du barrage.</p>
<p>Les autres mesures de sécurité concernent les habitations et les autres constructions dans les zones situées en aval. Dans le cas de la Libye, il y a eu une mauvaise planification. Les zones situées en aval des barrages n'auraient pas dû être utilisées <a href="https://apnews.com/article/libya-floods-derna-storm-daniel-11c33a12418149f761fe79a47ea7289c">pour la construction d'habitations</a>.</p>
<p>En définitive, la rupture du barrage en Libye aurait pu être évitée, ou du moins les pertes auraient pu être minimisées, si les ingénieurs sur place avaient libéré l'eau du réservoir dès le début de la tempête.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213930/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nadhir Al-Ansari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Les barrages sont généralement construits pour résister aux fortes pluies ou à la sécheresse.Nadhir Al-Ansari, Professor, Luleå University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2137442023-09-17T21:22:48Z2023-09-17T21:22:48ZDerrumbe de una presa en Libia: la culpa no ha sido del clima sino de una mala gestión<p><em>Más de <a href="https://apnews.com/article/libya-floods-derna-storm-daniel-mass-graves-21b1a195d261a642e12dac13f0d19431">11.000</a> personas han muerto y decenas de miles están desaparecidas tras el catastrófico derrumbamiento de <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/acaps-thematic-report-libya-update-impact-storm-daniel-derna-district-15-september-2023">dos presas</a> en la ciudad oriental libia de Derna. El colapso de las presas se produjo después de que una tormenta extrema, la tormenta Daniel, azotara el país norteafricano. Moina Spooner, de The Conversation Africa, pidió a Nadhir Al-Ansari, experto en recursos hídricos e ingeniería que ha investigado el <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1001627916000020">diseño</a> y la <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342270305_Dam_Safety_General_Considerations">seguridad</a> de las presas, que explicara la catástrofe.</em></p>
<h2>¿Cómo afecta el clima extremo a la estabilidad de las presas?</h2>
<p>Las presas suelen construirse para resistir lluvias torrenciales o sequías. En el diseño y la construcción de una presa se tienen en cuenta todo tipo de factores: los materiales de construcción, el diseño de los cimientos y la estabilidad de la presa, las posibles inundaciones y el riesgo sísmico, e incluso las acciones militares.</p>
<p>Al margen de cómo se construya la presa, debe haber disposiciones de seguridad. Por ejemplo, en caso de tormentas, los ingenieros deben liberar el agua para garantizar que no se supere la capacidad máxima de carga de una presa.</p>
<p>En el caso libio, creo que la gestión de las presas no fue buena. El ingeniero responsable de la presa debió asegurarse de que el agua no superaba la capacidad máxima de carga de la presa. Cuando se dio cuenta de que estaba entrando un gran volumen de agua en el embalse, debería haber liberado grandes cantidades de agua para mantener su nivel por debajo del límite superior. </p>
<p>Los estudios demuestran que las <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342270305_Dam_Safety_General_Considerations">principales causas de rotura de presas</a> son los problemas de cimentación (40 %), un aliviadero inadecuado (23 %), una construcción deficiente (12 %) y un asentamiento irregular (10 %). El emplazamiento de una presa no siempre será llano porque se construyen en zonas montañosas, pero los diseñadores deben tenerlo en cuenta y adaptarse a la topografía. </p>
<p>Entre las causas menos frecuentes de rotura de presas figuran los actos de guerra (3 %), los materiales defectuosos (2 %) y los terremotos (1 %). En el caso de Libia, la causa parece haber sido una mala gestión.</p>
<h2>¿Podría haberse evitado esta tragedia?</h2>
<p>Sí, si los responsables de la gestión de las presas hubieran abierto las compuertas para liberar el agua. Cuando los responsables de la gestión de la presa hacen caso omiso de las fuertes lluvias, es de esperar que se produzcan catástrofes de este tipo. </p>
<p>Los gestores de las presas deben conocer la cuenca hidrográfica de cada una de ellas y las previsiones de precipitaciones. Esto implica que los meteorólogos y el personal responsable de la gestión de las presas deben estar coordinados. Cuando se prevén precipitaciones intensas, el departamento de meteorología debe comunicárselo a los gestores de las presas, que pueden tomar medidas para liberar agua y mantenerla dentro de los límites operativos de la presa. Esta es la práctica habitual en todas las presas que he <a href="http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?dswid=-6381&pid=diva2%3A1370665">estudiado en Iraq</a>. </p>
<p>En este caso, debe haberse producido un fallo de comunicación.</p>
<h2>¿Cómo suelen controlar los ingenieros y las autoridades la integridad estructural de las presas?</h2>
<p>Las presas deben contar con un programa de inspección periódica. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342270305_Dam_Safety_General_Considerations">Todos los países</a> con presas –desde EE. UU. hasta Irak o Suecia– tienen inspecciones regulares. Debe haber instrumentos para controlar las grietas en las paredes de una presa y cualquier cambio en su estructura. Una vez identificados, deben ser atendidos inmediatamente. </p>
<h2>¿Existen tecnologías emergentes o innovaciones para mejorar la seguridad?</h2>
<p>Existen varios modelos y técnicas. La planificación ante fenómenos meteorológicos extremos suele hacerse en la fase de diseño de la presa. El diseñador debe elaborar un informe exhaustivo sobre la estabilidad de la presa frente a diversos factores, entre ellos los meteorológicos. </p>
<p>Se dan diferentes escenarios en función del nivel de agua en el embalse de la presa para evitar su rotura. El gobierno correspondiente debe saber qué hacer en caso de rotura de la presa, guiándose por la información del diseño. Por ejemplo, en <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10706-020-01355-w">mi estudio</a> sobre la presa iraquí de Mosul, que tuvo lugar después de la construcción de la presa, sugerí que se construyera una presa de protección aguas abajo para garantizar la seguridad de la zona aguas abajo y de su población. Las medidas de seguridad pueden tomarse incluso después de la construcción de la presa.</p>
<p>Las otras medidas de seguridad están relacionadas con limitar la construcción de viviendas y otras urbanizaciones en las zonas situadas aguas abajo. En el caso de Libia, la planificación fue deficiente. Las zonas situadas aguas abajo de las presas no deberían haberse destinado a viviendas.</p>
<p>En última instancia, la rotura de la presa en Libia se podría haber evitado, o al menos se podrían haber minimizado las pérdidas, si los ingenieros de la obra hubieran liberado el agua del embalse en cuanto empezó la tormenta.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213744/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nadhir Al-Ansari no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado.</span></em></p>El colapso de las presas derrumbadas en la ciudad libia de Derna tras una tormenta extrema se habría evitado abriendo a tiempo las compuertas para liberar el exceso de agua.Nadhir Al-Ansari, Professor, Luleå University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2135462023-09-15T19:21:11Z2023-09-15T19:21:11ZLibya dam collapse: engineering expert raises questions about management<p><em>More than <a href="https://apnews.com/article/libya-floods-derna-storm-daniel-mass-graves-21b1a195d261a642e12dac13f0d19431">11,000</a> people have been killed and tens of thousands are missing following the catastrophic collapse of <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/acaps-thematic-report-libya-update-impact-storm-daniel-derna-district-15-september-2023">two dams</a> in the eastern Libyan city of Derna. The dam collapse came after an extreme storm, Storm Daniel, slammed into the north African country. The Conversation Africa’s Moina Spooner asked water resources and engineering expert Nadhir Al-Ansari, who has researched the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1001627916000020">design</a> and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342270305_Dam_Safety_General_Considerations">safety</a> of dams, to provide insights into the disaster.</em></p>
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<h2>How does extreme weather affect the stability of dams?</h2>
<p>Dams are usually built to withstand heavy rainfall or drought. The design and construction of a dam takes into consideration all possible effects. All factors, including the type of building materials, the design of the foundation and the stability of a dam, as well as expected floods and earthquakes and even military action, are taken into consideration when planning a dam.</p>
<p>Aside from how the dam is constructed, there should be safety provisions in place. For instance, in cases of storms, the engineers should release the water to ensure that a dam’s maximum carrying capacity is not exceeded.</p>
<p>In the Libyan case, I believe that the management of the dams was not good. The engineer responsible for the dam should have made sure the water did not exceed the dam’s upper carrying capacity. When he noticed that a huge volume of water was entering the reservoir he should have released large quantities of water to keep its level lower than the upper limit. </p>
<p>Research shows that the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342270305_Dam_Safety_General_Considerations">main causes of dam failure</a> are foundation problems (40%), inadequate spillway (23%), poor construction (12%) and uneven settlement (10%). A site for a dam will not always be level because dams are built in mountain areas, but the designers must take that into consideration. The dam design must suit the topography. Among the rarer causes of dam failures are acts of war (3%), defective material (2%) and earthquakes (1%). </p>
<p>In Libya’s case, bad management appears to have been the cause of the dam’s collapse.</p>
<h2>Could this tragedy have been avoided?</h2>
<p>Yes, if the responsible people operating the dams had opened the gates to release water. When those responsible for the water management of the dam ignore heavy rainfall then one can expect such disasters to occur. </p>
<p>Dam managers should also know each dam’s catchment area and how much rainfall is forecast. This requires coordination between meteorologists and the staff responsible for the management of dams. When heavy rainfall is expected, the meteorology department should inform dam managers who can then make arrangements for the release of water to keep it within the dam’s operational limits. This is the usual practice in all the dams I’ve <a href="http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?dswid=-6381&pid=diva2%3A1370665">studied in Iraq</a>. </p>
<p>In this case, there must have been a breakdown in communication between meteorological department and engineers managing the dams.</p>
<h2>How do engineers and authorities typically monitor the structural integrity of dams?</h2>
<p>Dams should have a regular inspection programme that takes into consideration all parts of the dam. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342270305_Dam_Safety_General_Considerations">All countries</a> with dams, whether in the US, Iraq or Sweden, have regular inspections. There should be instruments for monitoring cracks in a dam’s walls and any changes in its structure. Once identified, they must be attended to immediately. </p>
<p>In Libya’s case, if they had opened the sluice gates to keep water within the dam’s carrying capacity, the collapse of the dams would have caused less damage.</p>
<h2>Are there emerging technologies or innovations to improve safety?</h2>
<p>There are a number of models and techniques and each dam has its own model or technique that the designer suggests. Planning for extreme weather events is usually done at the design stage of the dam. The designer is meant to give a thorough report on the stability of the dam against various factors, including weather. </p>
<p>Different scenarios are given according to the water level in the reservoir of the dam to prevent dam failure. The government concerned should know what to do in case of dam failure, guided by the design information. For instance, in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10706-020-01355-w">my study</a> of Iraq’s Mosul dam, which took place after the dam was constructed, I suggested that a protection dam be built downstream to secure the safety of the downstream area and its population. Safety steps can be taken even after construction of the dam.</p>
<p>The other safety measures relate to housing and other developments in areas downstream. In Libya’s case, there was poor planning. The areas downstream from the dams should not have been used <a href="https://apnews.com/article/libya-floods-derna-storm-daniel-11c33a12418149f761fe79a47ea7289c">for housing</a>.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the dam failure in Libya could have been prevented, or at least the losses could have been minimised, if the engineers on site had released the water from the reservoir once the storm started.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213546/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nadhir Al-Ansari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Dams are usually built to withstand heavy rainfall or drought.Nadhir Al-Ansari, Professor, Luleå University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1324222020-03-01T13:11:13Z2020-03-01T13:11:13ZCoronavirus: How Twitter could more effectively ease its impact<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317476/original/file-20200226-24685-80zl4x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C125%2C3500%2C2001&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman wearing a sanitary mask to guard against coronavirus checks her phone in Milan, Italy.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Claudio Furlan/Lapresse via AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the wake of a disaster or crisis, people turn to <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/381455/most-trusted-sources-of-news-and-info-worldwide/">trusted sources for information</a>. </p>
<p>In today’s <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-human-connection-in-a-digital-world_b_4855478">digitally connected world</a>, those sources often take the form of social media platforms. These platforms allow for the rapid dissemination of information deemed vital <a href="https://thedaysofdigital.wordpress.com/2018/12/18/the-impact-social-media-has-on-disasters/">in the midst of a disaster or crisis</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317392/original/file-20200226-24680-cwqblu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2994%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317392/original/file-20200226-24680-cwqblu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2994%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317392/original/file-20200226-24680-cwqblu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317392/original/file-20200226-24680-cwqblu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317392/original/file-20200226-24680-cwqblu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317392/original/file-20200226-24680-cwqblu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317392/original/file-20200226-24680-cwqblu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317392/original/file-20200226-24680-cwqblu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">How are public and private organizations using the powerful tool of Twitter to disseminate information about the coronavirus outbreak?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>We’ve seen this most recently amid the spread of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51205074">the coronavirus, as information about the outbreak floods social media feeds</a>. That information is coming from both government sources as well as non-governmental organizations and private individuals, such was the case with many <a href="https://www.whatsonweibo.com/the-coronavirus-on-chinese-social-media-the-trending-topics-in-times-of-the-2019-ncov-crisis/">active Chinese social media users and online media outlets</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.1932">Our research</a> contrasted the effectiveness of disaster-related information shared on Twitter by <a href="https://mashable.com/2011/07/25/government-social-media/">both public</a> <a href="https://edmdigest.com/resources/ngos-filling-gaps-in-planning-response-recovery/">and private</a> organizations, including NGOs and aid agencies. </p>
<p>Twitter has gained recognition as a tool that can assist in the <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/419368/how-twitter-helps-in-a-disaster/">disaster or crisis management</a> process, allowing individuals to search specific hashtags through linking algorithms. </p>
<h2>Victims can share their stories</h2>
<p>Aside from being a central information and alert system, Twitter also provides a platform for the narratives of those personally affected by disasters or outbreaks, which is useful when it comes to humanitarian assistance and support. </p>
<p>By providing users with pertinent and reliable disaster-related information, Twitter has the potential to reduce the impact of a disaster. </p>
<p>While our research found that Twitter can be successful in <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-social-media-is-changing-disaster-response/">disseminating disaster-related information</a>, we found that both public and private organizations used the platform in a conservative manner, not releasing information quickly despite the heavy social responsibility. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317404/original/file-20200226-24694-1wa4vsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317404/original/file-20200226-24694-1wa4vsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317404/original/file-20200226-24694-1wa4vsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317404/original/file-20200226-24694-1wa4vsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317404/original/file-20200226-24694-1wa4vsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317404/original/file-20200226-24694-1wa4vsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317404/original/file-20200226-24694-1wa4vsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A passenger checks his smartphone as he arrives to the Sao Paulo International Airport in Brazil, wearing a mask as a coronavirus precaution.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Andre Penner</span></span>
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<p>We noted that these public and private organizations had a distinct lack of interaction with their followers. That limits the efficacy of the content to encourage public participation. The usefulness of disseminating this information could be greatly improved by enhancing the quality of interaction online, ensuring a two-way dialogue.</p>
<p>Our research further established two key organizational characteristics that significantly influenced the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2015/10/08/social-networking-usage-2005-2015/">effectiveness of using social media</a> for disaster-related communication. </p>
<p>First, internal policies of creating and disseminating information and second, the processes relating to decision-making in the organization influenced the efficacy of disaster-related communication.</p>
<h2>Too slow</h2>
<p>Both internal policies and decision-making processes reduced the speed of communication, ultimately decreasing the effectiveness of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/IntR-05-2012-0095">time-sensitive information</a>. </p>
<p>Typically, public and governmental organizations exerted great care and carefully constructed their content in order to comply with <a href="https://www.opm.gov/news/social-media-presence/social-media-policy.pdf">official standards, policies and regulations</a> (such as those pertaining to <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/web/social-media/policies/index.html">comment moderation, disclosure and endorsement issues</a>) which often significantly add to the time taken to release the content. </p>
<p>On the contrary, private organizations — by virtue of being independently owned and operated — were able to exert far greater flexibility in <a href="https://go.forrester.com/blogs/13-07-31-five_common_legal_regulatory_challenges_with_social_media/">adhering to regulations and certain standards of operations</a>, and were able to co-ordinate more effectively with networks largely due to the fact that they have fewer protocols to follow than their public counterparts.</p>
<p>Public organizations were also hindered due to the decision-making authority regarding social media content. Typically, a social media administrator would need to <a href="https://www.govloop.com/twitter-guide-for-government-agencies-approval-process/">obtain several levels of approval</a> prior to posting content on a public organization’s Twitter feed about an ongoing disaster or outbreak.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-social-media-is-changing-research-and-reactions-to-coronavirus-outbreak-130748">How social media is changing research and reactions to coronavirus outbreak</a>
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<p>As a result, the volume of published information and data produced in the public sector is less than that of the private sector. While it is vitally important that this information be <a href="https://exposingtheinvisible.org/resources/fact-checking-social-media">fact-checked</a> to ensure its validity, once this accurate information finally reaches a <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesagencycouncil/2017/10/02/social-media-as-a-vital-engagement-platform-for-government-outreach/#26c4fc384b29">mass audience</a>, it may be too late to have any meaningful impact. </p>
<p>With private organizations, our research showed information was still validated before sharing, but the decision-making process was completed in a timely manner — resulting in a greater amount of information being disseminated efficiently. </p>
<h2>Lessons</h2>
<p>So what are the lessons of our research so far? </p>
<p>We have learned that organizations making use of Twitter to disseminate disaster-related information should ensure that they’re eliminating superfluous levels of approval for validated information.</p>
<p>They should place a great importance on the <a href="https://www.onsolve.com/blog/why-accurate-timely-messages-are-crucial-during-an-emergency/?utm_source=bing&utm_medium=organic&utm_term=disseminate%20emergency%20information%20timely%20and%20accurately">timely dissemination</a> of the information.</p>
<p>And they should also should encourage public <a href="https://www.copypress.com/blog/the-power-of-social-media-interaction/">participation and actively engage</a> with followers to reduce the potential impact of disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Panom Gunawong receives funding from the Faculty of Political Science and Public Administration, Chiang Mai University, Thailand. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Caitlin Ferreira and Narongsak (Tek) Thongpapanl do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>By providing users with pertinent and reliable disaster-related information, Twitter has the potential to reduce the impact of a disaster. So why aren’t public organizations using it properly?Narongsak (Tek) Thongpapanl, Associate Dean of Resarch and Graduate Studies & Professor of Marketing and Product Innovation, Brock UniversityDr Caitlin Ferreira, PhD Candidate, Luleå University of TechnologyPanom Gunawong, Assistant Professor in Public Administration, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/481002015-10-04T19:22:11Z2015-10-04T19:22:11ZLow oil prices are here to stay as the US shale oil revolution goes global<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96873/original/image-20151001-5834-n94ncm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The shale oil revolution has only just begun. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shale oil image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Oil price rises over the past 40 years have been truly spectacular, but the recent fall is probably here to stay, thanks to increasing production. We discuss these trends in our new book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Price-Oil-Roberto-F-Aguilera/dp/1107525624/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1442415907&sr=8-1&keywords=roberto+f+aguilera">The Price of Oil</a>, published this month.</p>
<p>In constant money, prices rose by almost 900% between 1970-72 and 2011-13. This can be compared with a 68% real increase for a metals and minerals price index, comprising a commodity group that, like oil, is exhaustible.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95980/original/image-20150924-14296-1rvuy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95980/original/image-20150924-14296-1rvuy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/95980/original/image-20150924-14296-1rvuy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95980/original/image-20150924-14296-1rvuy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95980/original/image-20150924-14296-1rvuy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95980/original/image-20150924-14296-1rvuy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95980/original/image-20150924-14296-1rvuy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/95980/original/image-20150924-14296-1rvuy33.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=639&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Oil has increased in price unlike any other commodity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>In our view, it is political rather than economic forces that have shaped the inadequate growth of upstream oil production capacity, the dominant factor behind the sustained upward price push. </p>
<p>But we believe the period of excessively high oil prices has now come to an end. The international spread of two revolutions will assure much more ample oil supplies, and will deliver prices far below those experienced over the past decade.</p>
<h2>The new oil revolutions</h2>
<p>Beginning less than a decade ago, the shale oil revolution has turned the long run declining oil production trends in the United States into rises of 73% between 2008 and 2014. An exceedingly high rate of productivity improvements in this relatively new industry promises to strengthen the competitiveness of shale output even further. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96027/original/image-20150924-17103-n7fqcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96027/original/image-20150924-17103-n7fqcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96027/original/image-20150924-17103-n7fqcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96027/original/image-20150924-17103-n7fqcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96027/original/image-20150924-17103-n7fqcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96027/original/image-20150924-17103-n7fqcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96027/original/image-20150924-17103-n7fqcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96027/original/image-20150924-17103-n7fqcw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=590&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The US shale oil revolution has triggered a dramatic increase in output.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>A series of environmental problems related to shale exploitation have been identified, most of which are likely to be successfully handled as the infant, “wild west” industry matures and as environmental regulation is introduced and sharpened.</p>
<p>Geologically, the United States does not stand out in terms of shale resources. A very incomplete global mapping suggests a US shale oil share of no more than 17% of a huge geological wealth, widely geographically spread. Given the mainly non-proprietary shale technology and the many advantages accruing to the producing nations, it is inevitable that the revolution will spread beyond the United States.</p>
<p>We have assessed the prospects of non-US shale oil output in 2035, positing that the rest of the world will by then exploit its shale resources as successfully as the United States has done in the revolution’s first ten years. This would yield rest of world an output of 19.5 million barrels per day in 2035, which is similar to the global rise of all oil production in the preceding 20 years – a stunning increase with far-reaching implications in many fields.</p>
<p>Another related revolution is beginning to see the light of the day, but news about it has barely reached the media. It is being gradually realised that the advancements in <a href="http://www.appea.com.au/oil-gas-explained/operation/horizontal-drilling/">horizontal drilling</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-coal-seam-gas-shale-gas-and-fracking-in-australia-2585">fracking</a> can also be applied to conventional oil extraction. </p>
<p>If the rest of the world applies these techniques to conventional oil, as the United State has done, this would yield a further addition of conventional oil amounting to 19.7 million barrels per day by 2035. </p>
<p>The oil output increases are bound put downward pressure on prices, either by preventing price rises from the first-half 2015 levels, averaging some US$57 per barrel (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brent_Crude">Brent spot</a>), or by pushing them back to these levels if an early upward reaction takes place. </p>
<p>Our optimistic scenario, which appears increasingly likely, sees a price of US$40 by 2035. </p>
<h2>Global implications</h2>
<p>The global spread of these revolutions and the ensuing price weakness that we envisage for the coming two decades will, on balance, provide a great advantage both to the oil industry and to the world economy at large. </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, public income from oil in producing nations may fall if they fail to compensate for falling prices by expanding output. We also suspect that the effects of the <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/resource-curse.asp">resource curse</a> - where, paradoxically, nations with large resources don’t experience economic growth - will ease as prices decline.</p>
<p>The two revolutions will apparently cement and prolong the global oil dependence, with implications for climate policy. The efforts to develop renewables for the purpose of climate stabilisation will become more costly, requiring greater subsidies, in consequence of lower oil prices. </p>
<p>The abundance caused by the revolutions will lead to hard to fathom changes in international political relations. Much of the oil importers’ urge for political intervention and control will dissipate as access to oil becomes less urgent.</p>
<p>For instance, the heavy diplomatic and military presence of the United States in the Middle East is likely to be questioned when the country’s dependence on oil from the region is further reduced. </p>
<p>The growth and geographical diversification of supply would not only suppress prices, but would also promote competition among suppliers and make it more difficult for producers to use energy sales in pursuit of political ends.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/48100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Oil price developments over the past 40 years have been truly spectacular, but the recent fall in oil prices is likely to last, thanks to increasing production.Roberto F. Aguilera, Adjunct Research Fellow, Energy Economics, Curtin UniversityMarian Radetzki, Professor of economics, Luleå University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.