tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/potsdam-institute-for-climate-impact-research-1300/articlesPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research2023-10-06T15:15:47Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151122023-10-06T15:15:47Z2023-10-06T15:15:47ZMeat tax: no UK politician is calling for one – but maybe they should<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552524/original/file-20231006-23-uii7xt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5760%2C3837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fresh-raw-red-meat-butcher-127556858">ESB Professional/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>No prominent UK politician has proposed taxing meat, <a href="https://fullfact.org/news/claire-coutinho-labour-meat-tax/">despite</a> government ministers <a href="https://www.indy100.com/politics/tory-joke-nonexistent-meat-tax">insinuating</a> it is Labour party policy. Levels of meat consumption are a problem though. And while Conservative MPs might assume it’s a proposition the public would baulk at, research on the feasibility of meat taxes isn’t so clear-cut.</p>
<p>Eating large quantities of red and especially processed meat is unhealthy and <a href="https://theconversation.com/meat-tax-why-taxing-sausages-and-bacon-could-save-hundreds-of-thousands-of-lives-every-year-106399">increases your risk</a> of developing a number of diseases. Public sentiment <a href="https://www.grocerygazette.co.uk/2022/02/15/factory-farming-opposed/">overwhelmingly condemns</a> the intensive animal farming practices that generate cheap meat products – even if that concern does not always translate into fewer purchases (researchers have dubbed this the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-meat-paradox-how-your-brain-wrestles-with-the-ethics-of-eating-animals-175683">meat paradox</a>”). </p>
<p>Livestock farming contributes to numerous <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aam5324">environmental problems</a>, from deforestation and biodiversity loss to pollution and climate change. </p>
<p>But when a meat tax is suggested to stem these problems, by reducing meat demand and financing more sustainable alternatives, such a policy tends to be interpreted as an assault on consumer freedoms or hard working taxpayers.</p>
<p>In new research, we investigated two claims that are often made in the political debate: that a meat tax <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-023-00849-z">necessarily harms low-income households</a> and that introducing one is <a href="https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000291">politically impossible</a>. We found that neither stands up to scrutiny.</p>
<h2>Not so taxing</h2>
<p>Is a meat tax unfair? Since low-income households spend a larger share of their earnings on food, taxes on meat might be expected to hit them harder. </p>
<p>But whether a tax disadvantages poorer households ultimately depends on how the revenues it raises are used. Channelling it back to consumers in monthly or annual payments directly to their bank accounts, similar to the idea of paying out “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0201-2">climate dividends</a>” from money raised by taxing carbon emissions, would mean poorer people benefit on average. </p>
<p>That is because richer households spend more on meat in absolute terms. Hence, they contribute more to the common pot of revenues that is then shared equally between everyone – as a result, most people on low incomes would have more money than before the tax reform.</p>
<p>Lowering value-added taxes on fruit and vegetables, under discussion in a few <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-considers-tax-cut-to-lower-food-prices/a-64429699">European countries</a>, lessens the burden on low-income consumers, although it does not reverse it completely, which is why redistribution is necessary.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Carrots stacked in a wooden box in a farm field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552525/original/file-20231006-25-qfibig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552525/original/file-20231006-25-qfibig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552525/original/file-20231006-25-qfibig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552525/original/file-20231006-25-qfibig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552525/original/file-20231006-25-qfibig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552525/original/file-20231006-25-qfibig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552525/original/file-20231006-25-qfibig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meat and dairy are more heavily subsidised in the EU than fruit and vegetables.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wooden-crate-fresh-ripe-carrots-on-1503789764">New Africa/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Our research found that meat tax rates set at levels comparable to those of carbon pricing in the UK power sector have a very small effect per person, amounting to extra expenditure of less than £10 a month on average. </p>
<p>In any case, price interventions on meat and other emissions-intensive foods are <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-meat-tax-is-probably-inevitable-heres-how-it-could-work-188023">probably needed</a> to meet environmental targets in the food sector. And ensuring they are designed to benefit the under-resourced could be crucial for garnering sufficient support.</p>
<h2>Package sensibly</h2>
<p>Is a meat tax politically impossible in the UK? Actually, other industrialised countries, facing the same problems with levels of meat consumption, are already doing or planning to do something similar.</p>
<p>New Zealand, where approximately <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/publications/new-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory-19902021-snapshot/#:%7E:text=The%20Agriculture%20and%20Energy%20sectors%20contributed%20the%20most%20to%20New,per%20cent%20of%20gross%20emissions.">half of all greenhouse gas emissions</a> come from animal agriculture, will <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/interactive/2023/new-zealand-cows-burps-methane-tax/">price emissions</a> in this sector from 2025, effectively introducing a tax that will predominantly increase the price of meat products. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the meat industry is no different from the tobacco or oil industries when it comes to spreading misinformation. One <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306919222000173">study</a> found organisations representing the UK meat industry had led the public astray using a number of framings in their public communication strategies. </p>
<p>These were: “the harmfulness of meat consumption is still open for debate” (it isn’t); “most people need not worry about the health risks” (they should); “you should keep eating meat to be healthy” (there’s no need); “there is no need to cut down on how much meat you eat to be green” (there is).</p>
<p>Public aversion to government intervention on meat is understandable in this context. And consumers alone <a href="https://scientificadvice.eu/advice/towards-sustainable-food-consumption/">should not shoulder</a> the burden of making the food system more sustainable.</p>
<p>Fortunately, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-0047-4">research</a> shows that it is still possible to win over the public with clever policy packaging. For example, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-0047-4">survey data shows</a> financing higher animal welfare standards and phasing out subsidies for environmentally harmful farming practices could sway public opinion on price interventions on meat products.</p>
<p>Other countries have followed this strategy. In Germany, there is <a href="https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2096">strong public demand</a> for improving animal welfare. </p>
<p>A government commission there recommended an animal welfare levy – a uniform tax on all meat products, with the proceeds to be spent on raising livestock rearing standards. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-023-00696-y">Research</a> indicates that, for Germans, animal welfare is a more compelling justification for introducing meat taxes than climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Calves with yellow ear tags in an industrial lot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552526/original/file-20231006-19-a2squl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552526/original/file-20231006-19-a2squl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552526/original/file-20231006-19-a2squl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552526/original/file-20231006-19-a2squl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552526/original/file-20231006-19-a2squl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552526/original/file-20231006-19-a2squl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/552526/original/file-20231006-19-a2squl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Public desire to improve animal welfare standards trumps climate motives.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/industrial-livestock-calves-cattle-farm-1762043801">Ehasdemir/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>In Denmark, a transition to plant-based diets is not seen as particularly controversial. The parliament <a href="https://foodnationdenmark.com/news/denmark-invests-over-eur-90-million-in-fund-for-development-of-plant-based-foods/">recently passed</a> a roughly £80 million fund for developing and promoting plant-based foods. </p>
<p>In the UK, a sugar tax on soft drinks was passed and proved <a href="https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-019-1477-4">successful</a> in cutting sugar consumption. This shows there is no political barrier to making a meat tax work if political parties allow a sober and nuanced debate on this issue.</p>
<p>To make the cuts to meat consumption required for better public health, greater animal welfare and a stable climate, taxing meat in some form is <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-meat-tax-is-probably-inevitable-heres-how-it-could-work-188023">inevitable</a>. To make such a measure more palatable, a winning formula would deliver on public demand for higher animal welfare standards, redistribute the revenue to benefit low-income consumers and <a href="https://theconversation.com/meat-and-dairy-gobble-up-farming-subsidies-worldwide-which-is-bad-for-your-health-and-the-planet-174644">shift farming subsidies</a> towards fruit and vegetables. </p>
<p>And let’s think of a different name for it. An animal welfare levy, or sustainable farming levy, might just work.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Linus Mattauch receives funding from the Robert Bosch Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Franziska Funke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Let’s just call it something different.Franziska Funke, Associate Doctoral Researcher in Environmental Economics, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLinus Mattauch, Assistant Professor in Environmental Economics, Technical University of Berlin and Honorary Research Associate, School of Geography and Environment, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1880232022-08-10T15:34:23Z2022-08-10T15:34:23ZA meat tax is probably inevitable – here’s how it could work<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477645/original/file-20220804-1334-ckx2sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1998&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/carbon-label-tax-price-on-meat-1985193194">HollyHarry/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rearing livestock and growing crops to feed them has destroyed more <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation">tropical forest</a> and <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/our-global-food-system-primary-driver-biodiversity-loss">killed more wildlife</a> than any other industry. Animal agriculture also produces vast quantities of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution. </p>
<p>The environmental consequences are so profound that the world <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/food-emissions-carbon-budget">cannot meet climate goals</a> and keep ecosystems intact without rich countries reducing their consumption of beef, pork and chicken.</p>
<p>To slash emissions, slow the loss of biodiversity and secure food for a growing world population, there must be a change in the way meat and dairy is made and consumed. </p>
<p>A rapidly evolving market for <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-scientists-make-plant-based-foods-taste-and-look-more-like-meat-156839">novel alternatives</a>, such as plant-based burgers, has made the switch from meat easier. Yet in countries such as Britain, meat consumption has not fallen fast enough in recent years to sufficiently rein in <a href="https://theconversation.com/meat-eating-drops-by-17-over-a-decade-in-the-uk-new-research-168626">agricultural emissions</a>.</p>
<p>Instead, prices on meat and other animal products will eventually need to reflect all this damage. There are several ways to do this, but each intervention poses its own difficulties.</p>
<p>In our view, the most likely result will be simple, direct taxes on meat and animal products. <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/721078">Our latest research</a>, published in the Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, considered how an environmental tax on meat could work. </p>
<p>Our calculations suggest that the average retail price for meat in high-income countries would need to increase by 35%-56% for beef, 25% for poultry, and 19% for lamb and pork to reflect the environmental costs of their production. In the UK, where the average price for a 200g beef steak is around <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/295332/average-beef-prices-in-united-kingdom-uk/">£2.80</a>, consumers would pay between £3.80 and £4.30 at the checkout instead.</p>
<p>Fortunately, our research found that a meat tax, if implemented correctly, need not increase the pressure on poorer households – or the farming industry.</p>
<h2>Fairer, healthier and greener food</h2>
<p>Before food prices soared in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the idea of a meat tax was already being mulled by agricultural ministers in countries like <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49281111">Germany</a> and <a href="https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/03/dutch-look-into-taxing-meat-as-part-of-shift-towards-vegetable-protein/">the Netherlands</a>. Even if a meat tax is currently unthinkable in the current political environment, higher taxes on meat and dairy may become inevitable to decarbonise agriculture at the necessary pace for limiting global heating to at least 1.5°C. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-food-system-emissions-alone-threaten-warming-beyond-1-5-c-but-we-can-act-now-to-stop-it-149312">Global food system emissions alone threaten warming beyond 1.5°C – but we can act now to stop it</a>
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<p>Our analysis showed that by redistributing revenue from a tax on the sale of meat and animal products evenly across the population, in the form of uniform lump sum payments at the end of each year perhaps, most people on low incomes would have more money than before the tax reform. </p>
<p>Would people spend this compensation on meat or other products tied to high levels of pollution? Research from British Columbia in Canada showed that returning the proceeds from a carbon tax to citizens had <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421515300550?casa_token=WU0LbyFQMhQAAAAA:EzJ1JNZdajFJlSxWDSv33JD2agiPHZYYOPVmsWhUUz3RNz5IGJq1H-LF26jIf3r2z29jkqDwp-0">no significant effect</a> on how much the province cut emissions (between 5% and 15%). Making meat relatively more expensive would most likely encourage people to spend their money elsewhere.</p>
<p>Part of the tax revenue could finance subsidies for growing vegetables, grains and alternative proteins, or help low-income households meet their food bills on a more regular basis.</p>
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<img alt="A diner enjoys a Greek salad with a glass of white wine." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477651/original/file-20220804-16-2y8cqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477651/original/file-20220804-16-2y8cqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477651/original/file-20220804-16-2y8cqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477651/original/file-20220804-16-2y8cqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477651/original/file-20220804-16-2y8cqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477651/original/file-20220804-16-2y8cqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477651/original/file-20220804-16-2y8cqh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The healthier (and cheaper) choice.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fresh-vegan-green-greek-salad-leaves-1930403528">Dariatorchukova/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Just as meat and dairy must become more expensive, healthy and sustainable plant-based foods should become more affordable. Using revenue from a meat tax to cut value-added taxes on fruit, vegetables, and grains for example, could provide much-needed relief to poorer households during a cost of living crisis, while encouraging everyone to reduce their intake of animal products.</p>
<h2>Levelling the playing field</h2>
<p>Other types of regulation, such as stricter rules on managing animal feed or manure more sustainably, run the risk of putting domestic livestock farmers at a disadvantage compared to competitors from abroad who are not burdened with the additional costs of complying with these rules. This is why a form of “border adjustment”, as economists call it, is also necessary to include products from overseas. </p>
<p>A tax levied on any firm selling meat – including restaurants and cafes as well as supermarkets – in a given country would capture all meat producers. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0201-2">Other research</a> indicates that consumers are typically more supportive of environmental taxes of this nature if they are phased in with a lower tax rate initially.</p>
<p>Some of the revenue raised by the tax could be given directly to farmers, leaving them with higher profits than before. This could be paid according to their work <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030691922030227X">stewarding the land</a>, restoring habitats like peat bogs. Or, it could help them invest in the transition to new income streams, such as producing high-quality, organic meat from low-density herds which, when consumed in much lower quantities, may still be compatible with emissions targets.</p>
<p>Taking steps to make plant-based foods more affordable and meat substitutes more attractive will pave the way for a future in which it’s possible to make meat and dairy much more expensive. The good news is that – once their time has come – meat taxes could actually help us eat better, at lower cost. </p>
<p>If implemented correctly, a meat tax could protect the environment, while helping secure a sustainable future for livestock farmers, as well as affordable and sustainable food for all.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Healthier and more sustainable food could be made cheaper as meat and dairy becomes more expensive.Cameron Hepburn, Professor of Environmental Economics, University of OxfordFranziska Funke, Associate Doctoral Researcher in Environmental Economics, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1825622022-06-27T14:20:26Z2022-06-27T14:20:26ZHuman disruption to Earth’s freshwater cycle has exceeded the safe limit, our research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466060/original/file-20220530-20-zvmbva.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6613%2C3720&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/extreme-drought-cornfield-under-hot-sun-1129539992">Scott Book/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Green water – the rainwater available to plants in the soil – is indispensable for life on and below the land. But in a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00287-8">new study</a>, we found that widespread pressure on this resource has crossed a critical limit.</p>
<p>The planetary boundaries framework – a concept that scientists <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a">first discussed in 2009</a> – identified nine processes that have remained remarkably steady in the Earth system over the last 11,700 years. These include a relatively stable global climate and an intact biosphere that have allowed civilisations based on agriculture to thrive. Researchers proposed that each of these processes has a boundary that, once crossed, puts the Earth system, or substantial components of it, at risk of upset.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">comprehensive scientific assessment</a> in 2015 found that human activity has already breached four of the planetary boundaries. Greenhouse gas emissions are brewing a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">hotter climate</a>, the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1922686117">sixth mass extinction</a> of species is unpicking the web of life that makes up the global biosphere, intensive farming is <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/can-the-world-find-solutions-to-the-nitrogen-pollution-crisis">polluting the environment</a> and natural habitats are being <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/land-use-change-has-affected-almost-a-third-of-worlds-terrain-since-1960/">destroyed</a> on a significant scale. Earlier in 2022, researchers announced that a fifth planetary boundary had been <a href="https://theconversation.com/chemical-pollution-exceeds-safe-planetary-limit-researcher-q-a-on-consequences-for-life-on-earth-175256">crossed</a> with the emission and accumulation of <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c04158">chemical pollution and plastics</a>. </p>
<p>So far, it has been suggested that human use of freshwater is still <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">within safe limits globally</a>. But earlier assessments only considered the extraction of what is called blue water – that which flows in rivers and resides in underground aquifers. Even then, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1877343513001498?via%3Dihub">regional boundaries</a> are likely to have been crossed in many river basins due to a sixfold increase in the extraction of blue water <a href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/175/2016/">over the past century</a>. Besides irrigating crops to sate growing demand from people and livestock, population growth and higher standards of living have raised global <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378012001318">domestic and industrial water consumption</a>, disrupting aquatic ecosystems and <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0032688">decimating</a> the life within them.</p>
<p>By including green water in our assessment, we found that freshwater’s ability to sustain a stable Earth system is even more threatened than first reported.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465324/original/file-20220525-14-qgqzqv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=713&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The crossing of planetary boundaries could destabilise humanity’s safe operating space in the Earth system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Azote/Stockholm Resilience Centre</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Red alert for green water</h2>
<p>Radiation from the sun evaporates green water in the soil, cooling the environment and returning moisture to the atmosphere where it forms <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010WR009127">clouds and rain</a>. This cycle sustains some of Earth’s most important ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest which makes up roughly <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.0801915105">40% of global tropical forest</a>, stores roughly <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1019576108">112 billion tonnes of carbon</a> and <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/05/22/why-the-amazons-biodiversity-is-critical-for-the-globe">harbours 25% of land-based life</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-clouds-are-the-missing-piece-in-the-climate-change-puzzle-140812">Why clouds are the missing piece in the climate change puzzle</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0022169482901172">Research</a> shows that clearing forests reduces the flow of moisture to the atmosphere, dampening how efficiently the Earth system can circulate water and ultimately putting ecosystems like the Amazon <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14681">at risk of collapse</a>. Global heating and changes to how the land is used, especially deforestation, are among the biggest factors responsible for humanity’s transgression of this planetary boundary. Their combined influence indicates that the planetary boundaries interact and need to be treated as <a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00478-4">one networked system</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An excavator digs up soil in a tropical forest clearing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471120/original/file-20220627-20-fk82u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deforestation can halt the flow of green water in the hydrological cycle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/deforestation-rainforest-environmental-problem-destruction-forest-1956048232">Santhosh Varghese/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Food production also depends on green water. Around <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1464190900000046">60% of staple food production</a> globally and <a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/%28ASCE%290733-9496%282006%29132%3A3%28129%29">80% of cultivated land</a> is rain-fed. In these areas, the only water reaching the crop is what rain provides. Even irrigated crops rely on rain to some extent.</p>
<p>We found that since the industrial revolution, and especially since the 1950s, larger parts of the world are subject to significantly drier or wetter soil. This shift towards extreme conditions is an alarming development due to the indispensable role of water in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589915518300099">maintaining resilient societies and ecosystems</a> </p>
<p>More frequent and severe dry spells mean prolonged and more intense <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2002411117">droughts</a> in many regions, like those currently affecting <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-window-of-opportunity-to-address-increasing-drought-and-expanding-drylands-is-vanishing-176731">Chile and the western US</a>. This limits photosynthesis in plants, which absorb <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0424-4">less of the CO₂</a> heating Earth’s atmosphere. The land carbon sink, which currently soaks up about <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/11/1783/2019/">30% of annual CO₂ emissions</a>, is weakened as a result, and could even <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044002">become a net source</a> of carbon in the future.</p>
<p>Too much soil water is no good either. Water-saturated soils make floods more likely and suffocate plant growth. Abnormally large quantities of water evaporating from wet soils can <a href="https://science.thewire.in/environment/india-monsoon-refuses-retreat-erratic-rainfal-uttarakhand-floods/">delay the onset of monsoons</a> in places like India, where the dry season has extended and disrupted farming. High humidity combined with high temperatures can also cause deadly heatwaves, as the human body quickly overheats when sweating <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjbq5p/indias-heat-wave-is-a-grim-warning-for-deadly-wet-bulb-temperatures">becomes impossible in very moist air</a>. Several regions, like South Asia, the coastal Middle East and the Gulf of California and Mexico, are <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/lethal-levels-heat-and-humidity-are-gripping-global-hot-spots-sooner-expected">experiencing this lethal combination</a> much earlier than expected.</p>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>Growing scientific evidence suggests that the planet is both drier and wetter than at any point within the last 11,700 years. This threatens the ecological and climatic conditions that support life. </p>
<p>Our analysis shows that the sixth planetary boundary has been crossed. But ambitious efforts to slow climate change and halt deforestation could still prevent dangerous changes to the cycling of Earth’s <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1817380116">green water</a>. Along with other measures, switching farming practices <a href="https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-1-4939-2493-6_1129-1">to sustainable alternatives</a> would prevent more soil being degraded and losing its moisture. <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wat2.1406">Explicitly governing green water</a> and its protection in policy and legal frameworks may also be necessary. </p>
<p>Research has shown that farming is a major cause of <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss4/art8/">multiple planetary limits</a> being breached. Shifting diets towards sustainable plant-based food is a <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31788-4/fulltext">simple yet highly effective</a> option for keeping humanity within these boundaries.</p>
<p>Humanity is no longer in the safe zone. Immediate action is needed to maintain a resilient and nourishing freshwater cycle. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Arne Tobian receives funding from the European Research Council through the ‘Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene’ project (no. ERC-2016- ADG 743080). He is affiliated with the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dieter Gerten is research team leader at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and also professor for Global Change Climatology and Hydrology at the Geographical Institute of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lan Wang-Erlandsson receives funding from the European Research Council through the ‘Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene’ project (no. ERC-2016- ADG 743080) and financial support from the IKEA Foundation.</span></em></p>‘Green water’ is essential for healthy soils and a benign climate, but it’s under threat.Arne Tobian, PhD Candidate in Planetary Boundaries, Stockholm UniversityDieter Gerten, Working Group Leader, Terrestrial Safe Operating Space, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLan Wang Erlandsson, Researcher and Theme leader, Anthropocene Dynamics, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1718092021-11-14T19:12:59Z2021-11-14T19:12:59ZAre you kidding, India? Your last-minute Glasgow intervention won’t relieve pressure to ditch coal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431825/original/file-20211114-105969-1u4t442.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=114%2C122%2C4658%2C3506&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the United Nations climate summit opened in Glasgow, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a surprise positive announcement: a big net-zero target. The world cheered at the planet’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-58922398">third-largest</a> greenhouse gas emitter getting on board with net-zero, and the move made <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-59125143">global headlines</a>.</p>
<p>Fast forward to the final tense hours of COP26, and India almost derailed the talks. It <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/13/cop26-countries-agree-to-accept-imperfect-climate-agreement">demanded </a>a key commitment in the Glasgow agreement be watered down: that a pledge to “phase out” coal be weakened to just “phase down” the fossil fuel.</p>
<p>China supported India’s holdout. The controversy cast a long shadow over the Glasgow agreement, which was already shaping as too weak to keep global warming below 1.5°C this century. The world – including India – needs to phase out coal by 2040 if that warming goal is to be met, and India’s government is kidding itself to think the Glasgow intervention will make that problem vanish. </p>
<p>India should not consider itself off the hook. Rather than slow the decline in coal use, India has ensured it and other coal-intensive nations, including Australia, will be under even greater global pressure to ditch coal.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man and woman in face masks clap" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431824/original/file-20211114-15738-12jx7fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C411%2C5176%2C3034&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431824/original/file-20211114-15738-12jx7fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431824/original/file-20211114-15738-12jx7fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431824/original/file-20211114-15738-12jx7fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431824/original/file-20211114-15738-12jx7fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431824/original/file-20211114-15738-12jx7fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431824/original/file-20211114-15738-12jx7fc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A big coal problem</h2>
<p>Since 2000, coal-fired power capacity in both India and China has <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants">grown massively</a>. At COP26, the two nations were <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/cop26-draft-calls-for-end-to-fuel-subsidies-india-7621694/">joined</a> in their last minute demands by other big coal users like South Africa and Nigeria, along with Venezuela, a coal exporter. </p>
<p>India cannot absolve itself by pointing to its goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2070. Like many other nations to adopt a net-zero goal – including Australia – India has no firm plan to get there.</p>
<p>Nor is India’s 2030 target strong enough. A global research organisation I help lead, Climate Action Tracker, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/india/">found</a> India can largely meet the goal with policies already in place.</p>
<p>India no doubt has a big coal problem, and will need substantial support to deal with it, such as finance and technology from developed nations. But it also has <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/how-a-renewable-energy-covid-19-recovery-creates-opportunities-for-India/">enormous potential</a> for renewable energy expansion.</p>
<p><a href="https://climateanalytics.org/media/report_coal_phase_out_2019.pdf">Analysis shows</a> that to prevent further climate disaster and keep warming to 1.5°C, thermal coal must be phased out by 2030 in developed nations and by 2040 globally – including in India. Softening the language in the COP26 decision doesn’t change this fact.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-why-the-cop26-summit-ended-in-failure-and-disappointment-despite-a-few-bright-spots-171723">The ultimate guide to why the COP26 summit ended in failure and disappointment (despite a few bright spots)</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people dig in coal pile" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431823/original/file-20211114-59154-1kmyaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431823/original/file-20211114-59154-1kmyaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431823/original/file-20211114-59154-1kmyaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431823/original/file-20211114-59154-1kmyaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431823/original/file-20211114-59154-1kmyaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431823/original/file-20211114-59154-1kmyaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431823/original/file-20211114-59154-1kmyaa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India will need substantial support to phase out coal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Parallels with Australia</h2>
<p>So where does all this leave Australia, one of the world’s largest coal exporters? </p>
<p>Like India, Australia also has a big coal problem and huge renewables potential. And like India, Australia firmly resisted signing up to big COP26 pledges for a faster phase-out of coal and large reductions in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-03/australia-refuses-to-join-global-pledge-to-cut-methane-emissions/100589510">methane</a> emissions by 2030. </p>
<p>Large methane reductions need to come from fossil fuels – namely coal mining and gas production. These are both industries our government has fought hard to protect.</p>
<p>To stay within the 1.5˚C warming limit, gas must be <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/latest/report-why-gas-is-the-new-coal/">phased out</a> almost as quickly as coal. But Australia’s political class is largely in denial about the gas problem.</p>
<p>One development at COP26, however, suggests the issue will not go away. It involves a new coalition, led by Denmark and Costa Rica, known as the Beyond Gas and Oil Alliance. Sooner rather than later, we can expect it to come for Australia’s fast-expanding LNG export industry.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-glasgow-climate-pact-171799">Five things you need to know about the Glasgow Climate Pact</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="LNG plant at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431827/original/file-20211114-19-17dquq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431827/original/file-20211114-19-17dquq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431827/original/file-20211114-19-17dquq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431827/original/file-20211114-19-17dquq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431827/original/file-20211114-19-17dquq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431827/original/file-20211114-19-17dquq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431827/original/file-20211114-19-17dquq3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A new alliance struck at COP26 will target the gas industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead to COP27</h2>
<p>All nations at COP26 agreed to come back next year with stronger emissions reduction targets. And for all nations – including India, China and Australia – the pressure to do so will be unrelenting.</p>
<p>Whichever government Australia has after the next election will have no choice but to substantially increase Australia’s actions and commitments beyond our pathetically weak efforts so far.</p>
<p>Without strong near-term targets, the world won’t get to net-zero emissions in time. As Climate Action Tracker has pointed out, even if the world meets its 2030 targets it is still heading for a catastrophic <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/press/global-update-projected-warming-from-paris-pledges-drops-to-two-point-four-degrees/">2.4°C of warming</a> this century. </p>
<p>So where to now? Next year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/">due to release</a> its sixth assessment report. </p>
<p>So by COP27 in Egypt in November next year, we’ll have yet more compelling evidence of the devastating impacts of climate change if global warming is not limited to 1.5°C </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop26-leaves-too-many-loopholes-for-the-fossil-fuel-industry-here-are-5-of-them-171398">COP26 leaves too many loopholes for the fossil fuel industry. Here are 5 of them</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171809/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare receives funding from the European Climate Foundation, Bloomberg philanthropy and the Climate Works Foundation. </span></em></p>Rather than slow the decline in coal use, India’s actions at COP26 ensure it and other polluting nations, including Australia, will be under even greater scrutiny.Bill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University (Perth), Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1698352021-10-15T13:02:50Z2021-10-15T13:02:50ZYes, Australia can beat its 2030 emissions target. But the Morrison government barely lifted a finger<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426585/original/file-20211014-17-1p9h6km.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=155%2C57%2C4965%2C2429&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With just over a fortnight until world leaders gather in Glasgow at a make-or-break United Nations climate conference, all eyes are on the biggest climate laggards, including Australia. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison continues to claim Australia will “meet and beat” its current 2030 target of reducing emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels. But unlike many of his international counterparts, he has so far resisted increasing the 2030 target.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.acf.org.au/australia-2030-emissions-states-lead-the-way">report</a> released today, commissioned by the <a href="https://www.acf.org.au/">Australian Conservation Foundation</a>, our team at Climate Analytics conclude Australia will indeed beat its current 2030 target. We project Australia’s emissions are likely to be around 30-38% below 2005 levels by 2030.</p>
<p>Our analysis shows almost all the emissions reductions will be the result of state government policies, and will have virtually nothing to do with the federal government. It also suggests that, given the almost total absence of substantial federal climate policies to date, Australia can do a lot more.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="coal truck at mine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426593/original/file-20211015-13-rtp5hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426593/original/file-20211015-13-rtp5hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426593/original/file-20211015-13-rtp5hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426593/original/file-20211015-13-rtp5hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426593/original/file-20211015-13-rtp5hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426593/original/file-20211015-13-rtp5hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426593/original/file-20211015-13-rtp5hp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The federal government is a strong backer of the fossil fuel industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Crunching the numbers</h2>
<p>So how did we reach these figures?</p>
<p>First, before or by 2030, coal-fired power plants will close early. Victoria’s Yallourn plant in the LaTrobe Valley <a href="https://www.latrobe.vic.gov.au/news-and-media/Energy_Australia_announces_closure_of_Yallourn_power_station#:%7E:text=Latrobe%20City%20Council%20will%20continue,four%20years%20earlier%20than%20planned.">will close in 2028</a> and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/origin-to-close-first-unit-of-australias-biggest-coal-generator-in-2030/">one unit</a> at the Eraring coal plant in New South Wales will close in 2030. </p>
<p>These closures could bring 2030 emissions down by 1.2- 1.5% if they are replaced by renewables and storage, as appears to be the case.</p>
<p>The federal government, <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-emissions-projections-2020">in its 2020 projections</a>, said renewable energy will provide just over 50% of power supply nationally by 2030. Our projections show that figure to be more like 58-65%. This is due to state government action to encourage the continued record rollout of rooftop solar on homes and increase the amount of large-scale renewables entering the market.</p>
<p>At the state level, NSW, Victoria, the ACT and South Australia all have strong electric vehicle policies. Our analysis shows that by 2030, electric vehicles will make up 13-18.5% of light vehicles on the road.</p>
<p>To date, the Morrison government has no policy to promote electric vehicles, and Australia is one of only <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/Light%20Vehicle%20Report/Lightvehiclesreport.pdf">a few countries in the OECD</a> with no emissions standards for cars. </p>
<p>Trends in Australia’s land use and forestry emissions are also pointing in the right direction. But the federal government <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-emissions-projections-2020">projects a reduction</a> in the carbon stored in our vegetation and forests, known as the carbon sink, compared with 2020 levels. </p>
<p>The federal government <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-emissions-projections-2020">also assumes</a> a continuing high level of land clearing through to 2030, which will lead to less natural carbon storage. But our work indicates land clearing rates are unlikely to be as high as the government expects. We project by 2030 the overall sink increases above 2020 levels – again, as a result of state policies, not federal. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-wars-carbon-taxes-and-toppled-leaders-the-30-year-history-of-australias-climate-response-in-brief-169545">Climate wars, carbon taxes and toppled leaders: the 30-year history of Australia’s climate response, in brief</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Scrub in pile on cleared land" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426594/original/file-20211015-17-qz28lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426594/original/file-20211015-17-qz28lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426594/original/file-20211015-17-qz28lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426594/original/file-20211015-17-qz28lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426594/original/file-20211015-17-qz28lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426594/original/file-20211015-17-qz28lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426594/original/file-20211015-17-qz28lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Land clearing rates are unlikely to be as high as the government expects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The federal government falsehood</h2>
<p>All these reductions show state-based climate action is likely to reduce national emissions by around 28-33% by 2030, without a single move from the federal government. That’s most of the 30-38% emissions reduction we predict will occur by 2030.</p>
<p>The rest will come as our major trading partners tackle their domestic emissions by reducing coal and gas imports. We estimate that will lead to a reduction in Australian coal and LNG production, driving overall emissions down a further 2.6-3.4% by 2030. </p>
<p>The federal government’s claim it is “meeting and beating” its targets is a falsehood. It is doing little, but claiming credit from the hard work of Australia’s states and territories.</p>
<p>Federal policies remain firmly fixed on keeping fossil fuels in the energy mix and expanding coal and gas production. It recently approved several new <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/05/new-coalmine-mangoola-nsw-muswellbrook-approved-australia-environment-minister-sussan-ley">coal mines</a> and announced subsidised and expanded gas production. Gas is a fossil fuel that also needs to be phased out if we’re to have any chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C.</p>
<p>The Morrison government is also increasing funding for carbon capture and storage, a policy aimed at continuing the use of fossil fuels. This is despite the country’s <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/chevron-concedes-ccs-failures-at-gorgon-seeks-deal-with-wa-regulators/">largest such project</a>, the Gorgon venture off Western Australia, failing to reduce and store carbon emissions at the rate originally promised. </p>
<p>The annual <a href="https://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2021">Climate Transparency analysis</a>, released on Wednesday, shows Australia has some of the G20’s highest per capita emissions. It is the only developed country in the G20 with no price on carbon, yet ranks the fourth highest for risk of economic losses from climate impacts. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/asias-energy-pivot-is-a-warning-to-australia-clinging-to-coal-is-bad-for-the-economy-169541">Asia's energy pivot is a warning to Australia: clinging to coal is bad for the economy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man holds lump of coal and looks at other smiling man" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426596/original/file-20211015-27-ah0viu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426596/original/file-20211015-27-ah0viu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426596/original/file-20211015-27-ah0viu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426596/original/file-20211015-27-ah0viu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426596/original/file-20211015-27-ah0viu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426596/original/file-20211015-27-ah0viu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426596/original/file-20211015-27-ah0viu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Morrison government is increasing funding for carbon capture and storage, a policy aimed at continuing the use of fossil fuels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It doesn’t need to be this way</h2>
<p>Our analysis shows that if the federal government weighed in, Australia could easily halve emissions by 2030, if not reduce them to 60%. </p>
<p>Our report outlines three ways the government could achieve this:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Emissions reach around 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. Decarbonisation efforts are made in the electricity, buildings and transport sectors. Under this scenario, renewables would generate 95% of the country’s electricity by 2030.</p></li>
<li><p>Emissions reach the same levels as the scenario above. This scenario would also involve some decarbonisation of the energy sector, but mitigation must also ramp up in agriculture, waste and industry. </p></li>
<li><p>Emissions reach around 60% below 2005 levels by 2030. Mitigation efforts are ramped up in Australia’s most emissions-intensive sectors - energy and industry. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>Measures in these scenarios all involve:</p>
<ul>
<li>phasing out coal in the energy sector by 2030</li>
<li>ensuring that by 2030, electric vehicles comprise 85% of all new cars sold and at least half of new trucks sold</li>
<li>measure to avoid 85% of emissions in the LNG industry.</li>
</ul>
<p>These scenarios still do not represent an emissions pathway in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit. We also offer a 1.5°C-compatible pathway, involving domestic emissions reduction to at least 65-75% below 2005 levels by 2030, and substantial increases in international climate finance.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/scalingupaustralia/">analysis from 2020</a> shows the large employment benefits such measures would bring just in the energy sector – many of them delivered well before before 2030. <a href="https://www.wwf.org.au/ArticleDocuments/853/Clean%20exports_detailed_report_vf.pdf.aspx?OverrideExpiry=Y">Other research</a> into export opportunities also shows big employment benefits. </p>
<p>Australia is perfectly placed to capitalise on the clean, green global transition, but time is running away as other countries chase these opportunities. To drive this transformation, the federal government must set deep emissions targets for 2030, consistent with the Paris Agreement. A 50% emissions reduction by 2030 is the bare minimum needed. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-cop26-and-why-does-the-fate-of-earth-and-australias-prosperity-depend-on-it-169648">What is COP26 and why does the fate of Earth, and Australia's prosperity, depend on it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169835/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare receives funding from the European Climate Foundation, Bloomberg philanthropy and the Climate Works Foundation. Climate Analytics received support from The Australian Conservation Foundation to produce the report upon which this article is based.
</span></em></p>A new analysis shows almost all emissions reductions will be the result of state government policies, and will have virtually nothing to do with the federal government.Bill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University (Perth), Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1592972021-05-02T20:12:27Z2021-05-02T20:12:27ZThe 1.5°C global warming limit is not impossible – but without political action it soon will be<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398026/original/file-20210430-16-dwydk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C3020%2C2119&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Limiting global warming to 1.5°C this century is a central goal of the Paris Agreement. In recent months, climate experts and <a href="https://www.science.org.au/files/userfiles/support/reports-and-plans/2021/risks-australia-three-deg-warmer-world-report.pdf">others</a>, including in Australia, have <a href="https://theconversation.com/failure-is-not-an-option-after-a-lost-decade-on-climate-action-the-2020s-offer-one-last-chance-158913">suggested</a> the target is now impossible.</p>
<p>Whether Earth can stay within 1.5°C warming involves two distinct questions. First, is it physically, technically and economically feasible, considering the physics of the Earth system and possible rates of societal change? Science indicates the answer is “yes” – although it will be very difficult and the best opportunities for success lie in the past.</p>
<p>The second question is whether governments will take sufficient action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This answer depends on the ambition of governments, and the effectiveness of campaigning by non-government organisations and others.</p>
<p>So scientifically speaking, humanity can still limit global warming to 1.5°C this century. But political action will determine whether it <em>actually</em> does. Conflating the two questions amounts to misplaced punditry, and is dangerous.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Women holds sign at climate march" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398027/original/file-20210430-22-1d00kj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398027/original/file-20210430-22-1d00kj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398027/original/file-20210430-22-1d00kj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398027/original/file-20210430-22-1d00kj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398027/original/file-20210430-22-1d00kj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398027/original/file-20210430-22-1d00kj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398027/original/file-20210430-22-1d00kj0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Staying within 1.5°C is scientifically possible, but requires government ambition.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Erik Anderson/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1.5°C wasn’t plucked from thin air</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> was adopted by 195 countries in 2015. The inclusion of the 1.5°C warming limit came after a long push by vulnerable, small-island and least developed countries for whom reaching that goal is their best chance <a href="https://1point5.info/en/">for survival</a>. The were backed by other <a href="https://thecvf.org/">climate-vulnerable</a> nations and a <a href="https://www.highambitioncoalition.org/work">coalition</a> of high-ambition countries.</p>
<p>The 1.5°C limit wasn’t plucked from thin air – it was informed by the best available science. Between 2013 and 2015, an extensive United Nations <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/science/workstreams/periodic-review">review process</a> determined that limiting warming to 2°C this century <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/docs/2015/sb/eng/inf01.pdf">cannot avoid</a> dangerous climate change.</p>
<p>Since Paris, the science on 1.5°C has expanded rapidly. An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">report</a> in 2018 synthesised hundreds of studies and found rapidly escalating risks in global warming between 1.5°C and 2°C.</p>
<p>The landmark report also changed the climate risk narrative away from a somewhat unimaginable hothouse world in 2100, to a very real threat within most of our lifetimes – one which climate action now could <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/blog/2019/livin-in-the-future-delaying-climate-action-and-intergenerational-justice/">help avoid</a>.</p>
<p>The message was not lost on a world experiencing ever more climate impacts <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-staggering-1-8-million-hectares-burned-in-high-severity-fires-during-australias-black-summer-157883">firsthand</a>. It galvanised an unprecedented global youth and activist <a href="https://www.schoolstrike4climate.com">movement</a> demanding action compatible with the 1.5°C limit.</p>
<p>The near-term benefits of stringent emissions reduction are becoming ever clearer. It can significantly reduce <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-aiming-for-1-5-c-target-could-slow-global-warming-within-next-two-decades-151710">near-term warming rates</a> and increase the prospects for <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abed79">climate resilient development</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Firefighter battles blaze" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398029/original/file-20210430-22-bva83v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398029/original/file-20210430-22-bva83v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398029/original/file-20210430-22-bva83v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398029/original/file-20210430-22-bva83v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398029/original/file-20210430-22-bva83v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398029/original/file-20210430-22-bva83v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398029/original/file-20210430-22-bva83v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The urgency of climate action is not lost on those who’ve experienced its effects firsthand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Evan Collins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A matter of probabilities</h2>
<p>The IPCC looked extensively at emission reductions required to pursue the 1.5°C limit. It found getting on a 1.5°C track is feasible but would require halving global emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 and reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century. </p>
<p>It found no published emission reduction pathways giving the world a likely (more than 66%) chance of limiting peak warming this century to 1.5°C. But it identified a range of pathways with about a one-in-two chance of achieving this, with no or limited overshoot.</p>
<p>Having about a one-in-two chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C is not ideal. But these pathways typically have a greater than 90% chance of limiting warming to well below 2°C, and so are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3096">fully compatible</a> with the overall Paris goal. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/spot-the-difference-as-world-leaders-rose-to-the-occasion-at-the-biden-climate-summit-morrison-faltered-159295">Spot the difference: as world leaders rose to the occasion at the Biden climate summit, Morrison faltered</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Scott Morrison holding a lump of coal in Parliament" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398031/original/file-20210430-17-r77a47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398031/original/file-20210430-17-r77a47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398031/original/file-20210430-17-r77a47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398031/original/file-20210430-17-r77a47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398031/original/file-20210430-17-r77a47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398031/original/file-20210430-17-r77a47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398031/original/file-20210430-17-r77a47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Staying under 1.5°C warming requires political will.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Don’t rely on carbon budgets</h2>
<p>Carbon budgets show the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted for a given level of global warming. Some point to carbon budgets to argue the 1.5°C goal is now impossible. </p>
<p>But carbon budget estimates are nuanced, and not a suitable way to conclude a temperature level is no longer possible.</p>
<p>The carbon budget for 1.5°C depends on several factors, including:</p>
<ul>
<li>the likelihood with which warming will be be halted at 1.5°C</li>
<li>the extent to which non-CO₂ greenhouse emissions such as methane are reduced</li>
<li>uncertainties in how the climate responds these emissions.</li>
</ul>
<p>These uncertainties mean strong conclusions cannot be drawn based on single carbon budget estimate. And, at present, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9">carbon budgets</a> and other <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00957-9">estimates</a> do not support any argument that limiting warming to 1.5°C is impossible. </p>
<p>Keeping temperature rises below 1.5°C cannot be guaranteed, given the history of action to date, but the goal is certainly not impossible. As any doctor embarking on a critical surgery would say about a one-in-two survival chance is certainly no reason not to do their utmost.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Wind farm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398030/original/file-20210430-15-3r6wok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398030/original/file-20210430-15-3r6wok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398030/original/file-20210430-15-3r6wok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398030/original/file-20210430-15-3r6wok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398030/original/file-20210430-15-3r6wok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398030/original/file-20210430-15-3r6wok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398030/original/file-20210430-15-3r6wok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Staying below 1.5°C is a difficult, but not impossible, task.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Closer than we’ve ever been</h2>
<p>It’s important to remember the special role the 1.5°C goal plays in how governments respond to climate change. Five years on from Paris, and the gains of including that upper ambition in the agreement are showing.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/global-update-paris-agreement-turning-point/">127 countries</a> aim to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century at the latest – something considered unrealistic just a few years ago. If achieved globally and accompanied by stringent near-term reductions, the actions could be in line with 1.5°C. </p>
<p>If all these countries were to deliver on these targets in line with the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00662-3">best-available science on net zero</a>, we may have a one-in-two chance of limiting warming this century <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/global-update-paris-agreement-turning-point/">to 2.1°C</a> (but a meagre one-in-ten that it is kept to 1.5°C). Much more work is needed and more countries need to step up. But for the first time, current ambition brings the 1.5°C limit within striking distance.</p>
<p>The next ten years are crucial, and the focus now must be on governments’ 2030 targets for emissions reduction. If these are not set close enough to a 1.5°C-compatible emissions pathway, it will be increasingly difficult to reach net-zero by 2050.</p>
<p>The United Kingdom and European Union are getting close to this pathway. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">The United States’</a> new climate targets are a major step forward, and China is moving in the right direction. Australia is now under heavy scrutiny as it prepares to update its inadequate 2030 target.</p>
<p>The UN wants a 1.5°C pathway to be the focus at this year’s COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. The stakes could not be higher.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-reasons-for-optimism-on-climate-change-than-weve-seen-for-decades-2-climate-experts-explain-159233">More reasons for optimism on climate change than we've seen for decades: 2 climate experts explain</a>
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</em>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159297/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare receives funding from the European Climate Foundation, Bloomberg philanthropy, Climate Works Foundation</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carl-Friedrich Schleussner receives funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01LN1711A) and under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN). He is affiliated with Humboldt University in Berlin and Climate Analytics. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joeri Rogelj receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme. He is affiliated with the Grantham Institute - Climate Change & Environment at Imperial College London, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. He is a Coordinating Lead Author on the IPCC 1.5°C Special Report and a Lead Author on the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Piers Forster receives funding from UK funding council (UKRI) and the EU. He is a member of the UK Climate Change Committee and Lead Author of IPCC reports.</span></em></p>Humanity can still limit global warming to 1.5°C this century. But political action will determine whether it actually does. Conflating the two questions amounts to dangerous, misplaced punditry.Bill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University (Perth), Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchCarl-Friedrich Schleussner, Research Group Leader, Humboldt University of BerlinJoeri Rogelj, Director of Research and Lecturer - Grantham Institute Climate Change & the Environment, Imperial College LondonPiers Forster, Professor of Physical Climate Change; Director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1490362020-11-02T14:50:46Z2020-11-02T14:50:46ZClimate change, migration and urbanisation: patterns in sub-Saharan Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366442/original/file-20201029-13-8vnoa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Herders at the N'gonga cattle market, Niger: Changing rainfall patterns alter locations of pastures the migrating herders depend on. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty Images </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The link between climate change and migration has gained both academic and public interest in recent years. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119006000398">Many studies</a> have found that environmental hazards affect migration. But the links are nuanced and depend on the economic and sociopolitical conditions in the respective regions of origin. </p>
<p>So what causes people to move and where do they go? And what is the relationship between these decisions and changes in climatic conditions? </p>
<p>To answer these questions we conducted a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0898-6">meta-analysis</a> to systematically analyse previous findings in the literature on environmental migration. We combined evidence from 30 country-level studies that estimated the effect of slow-onset and rapid-onset environmental events on internal and international migration worldwide. This allowed us to explore migration drivers and to identify hotspots where climatic and other environmental factors likely exert a strong influence on migration. </p>
<p>Our findings underscore the complexity of what lies behind people’s decisions to migrate. We found that migratory responses differed depending on the local conditions of affected populations. For example, environmental migration was most pronounced in agriculturally dependent and middle-income contexts where populations have sufficient resources to migrate. In low-income contexts, on the other hand, people were more constrained in their mobility and faced the risk of getting trapped in harsh environmental conditions. </p>
<p>Often <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/09/climate-crisis-could-displace-12bn-people-by-2050-report-warns">commentators</a> and <a href="https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/far-right-climate-change-orban-wilders-salvini-eco-fascism">politicians</a> create the impression that <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-migration-what-the-research-shows-is-very-different-from-the-alarmist-headlines-146905">“waves” and “rising tides”</a> of climate migrants are crossing the border to Europe and the US. </p>
<p>In fact, abundant research, including our own study, shows that environmental migration is primarily internal or within a region and rarely over large distances. Instead of focusing merely on numbers, it’s important to understand the actual situations of communities affected by climatic changes to effectively support and protect vulnerable populations.</p>
<h2>Sub-Saharan Africa</h2>
<p>Our analysis shows that changing climatic conditions and ecological hazards are an important migration driver in sub-Saharan Africa. Some of the threats are slow in the making. These include <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-latest-assessment-on-global-warming-means-for-southern-africa-104644">rising temperatures</a>, desertification, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-could-cause-abrupt-biodiversity-losses-this-century-135968">biodiversity loss</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/burkina-faso-study-shows-link-between-land-degradation-and-migration-130006">land</a> and forest degradation. On top of this is the increasing <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL079439">frequency and intensity</a> of extreme events such as floods and droughts, which have led to major displacements in the past years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366655/original/file-20201030-14-1bc0ckv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A bar graph illustrating disaster displacement in sub-Saharan Africa." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366655/original/file-20201030-14-1bc0ckv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366655/original/file-20201030-14-1bc0ckv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366655/original/file-20201030-14-1bc0ckv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366655/original/file-20201030-14-1bc0ckv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366655/original/file-20201030-14-1bc0ckv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366655/original/file-20201030-14-1bc0ckv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366655/original/file-20201030-14-1bc0ckv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Provided by the author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For households exposed to environmental stress, migration can serve as an important livelihood and adaptation strategy, particularly in rural areas. Often it’s <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112223?casa_token=35yNE88t_ToAAAAA%3AvqMplkRrPo3WdYap6_uGGWOXBxp3A44eNjalUmOfDkYW9Yms5MIhTToHwcnU32Ic8HLY863GFs24">individual household members</a> who migrate in an attempt to open new and diversify existing income sources. </p>
<p>Most environmentally induced migration is internal – or within a region – with a large share of migrants turning towards urban centres, as seen in the map below. This has its own risks and challenges, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, which already has the highest proportion of urban population living in informal settlements, <a href="https://urban-data-guo-un-habitat.hub.arcgis.com/">53.6% in 2018</a> according to UN HABITAT, the UN Human Settlements Programme.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366657/original/file-20201030-18-ihmau0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing urbanisation trends in sub-Saharan Africa." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366657/original/file-20201030-18-ihmau0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366657/original/file-20201030-18-ihmau0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366657/original/file-20201030-18-ihmau0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366657/original/file-20201030-18-ihmau0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366657/original/file-20201030-18-ihmau0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366657/original/file-20201030-18-ihmau0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366657/original/file-20201030-18-ihmau0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Provided by the author</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the past decades, several cities in sub-Saharan Africa have seen <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html">rapid population growth</a> and are today among the fastest growing in the world. Cities that already host several million people, such as Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, Kampala in Uganda, Abuja in Nigeria, Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso and Bamako in Mali, are expected to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2018/10/05/figure-of-the-week-africa-is-home-to-fastest-growing-cities-in-the-world/">double in size by 2035</a>. The rapid urbanisation has significant implications. It brings new opportunities as well as risks.</p>
<h2>Urbanisation challenges</h2>
<p>The rapid, and often unplanned, nature of the urbanisation process in many countries has led to several challenges. These include inadequate infrastructure, housing, and a strain on the provision of public services such as health care, education and transport. </p>
<p>While migrating to an urban area offers opportunities for migrants, it comes with risks. Many migrants entering cities from rural areas have limited resources and are highly vulnerable. In the hope of a better life, many end up in <a href="https://www.citiesalliance.org/newsroom/news/news/climate-migration-drives-slum-growth-dhaka">deprived and marginalised neighbourhoods</a> with poor access to water, sanitation, and public services. </p>
<p>Having fled from environmental threats in their origin regions, climate migrants may find themselves exposed to new hazards in their urban destinations. Many informal settlements are located on marginal land in risk areas. Due to the low quality of construction materials in these areas, the inadequate infrastructure and high population densities, disasters can have fatal consequences.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-arent-people-in-accra-better-prepared-for-floods-the-key-is-in-communication-136888">Why aren't people in Accra better prepared for floods? The key is in communication</a>
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<p>Urban floods, in particular, are a major challenge. For example, in 2018, <a href="https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2019/">six of the ten largest flooding events</a> that triggered displacement were in sub-Saharan Africa, and urban areas bore the greatest impacts. Also this year, severe floods across the region affected <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/chad/africa-floods-and-multiple-disasters-information-bulletin-06-september-2020">several hundred thousand</a> people and led to <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-09-10/severe-floods-hit-760-000-people-in-west-and-central-africa">severe damage and displacement</a>.</p>
<h2>Going forward</h2>
<p>Climate migration is already a reality for many people and will continue to be. The World Bank Groundswell report projects that <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/infographic/2018/03/19/groundswell---preparing-for-internal-climate-migration">up to 86 million people</a> could be forced to migrate within their own countries by 2050 to escape the slow-onset impacts of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<p>A large share of these migrants will move to cities. If planned and well managed, urban growth has the potential to bring social and economic benefits for both migrants and the destination areas. This will need infrastructural development and inclusive economic policies. </p>
<p>For adequate preparation, it’s important to understand why and under which conditions people migrate and where they go. For this, climate change predictions need to be more strongly integrated in migration scenarios. <a href="https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/migration-policy-practice-vol-x-number-1-january%E2%80%93march-2020">Better data</a> and comprehensive research on migration dynamics can improve policy-making and raise awareness.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149036/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roman Hoffmann receives funding from the International Climate Initiative (IKI: <a href="http://www.international-climate-initiative.com">www.international-climate-initiative.com</a>) and the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). Further funding is provided by the Jubilee Fund of the City of Vienna for the Austrian Academy of Sciences. He is affiliated with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, University of Vienna). </span></em></p>Changing climatic conditions and ecological hazards are an important migration driver in sub-Saharan Africa.Roman Hoffmann, Postdoctoral researcher, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1334352020-05-26T20:15:47Z2020-05-26T20:15:47ZA single mega-project exposes the Morrison government’s gas plan as staggering folly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337498/original/file-20200526-106853-tqiauk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4291%2C2817&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every few years, the idea that gas will help Australia transition to a zero-emissions economy seems to re-emerge, as if no one had thought of it before. Federal energy minister Angus Taylor is the latest politician to jump on the gas bandwagon.</p>
<p>Taylor wants taxpayer money invested in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gas-revival-key-to-renewables-push-energy-minister-says-20200424-p54n2n.html">fast-start gas projects</a> to drive the post-pandemic recovery. His government plans to extend the emissions reduction fund to fossil fuel projects using carbon capture and storage.</p>
<p>The government’s “technology investment roadmap”, released last week, said gas will help in “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-21/federal-government-releases-emissions-technology-roadmap/12269010">balancing</a>” renewable energy sources. And manufacturers advising the National COVID-19 Coordination Commission want <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/21/leaked-covid-19-commission-report-calls-for-australian-taxpayers-to-underwrite-gas-industry-expansion">public money used</a> to underwrite a huge domestic gas expansion.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-government-dangles-new-carrots-for-industry-but-fails-to-fix-bigger-climate-policy-problem-138940">Morrison government dangles new carrots for industry but fails to fix bigger climate policy problem</a>
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<p>Amid all these gas plans, there is little talk of the damage this would wreak on the climate. We need only look to Woodside’s Burrup Hub proposal in Western Australia to find evidence of the staggering potential impact. </p>
<p>By the end of its life in 2070, the project and the gas it produces will emit about <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2020/impact-of-burrup-hub-on-western-australias-paris-agreement-carbon-budget/">six billion tonnes of greenhouse gas</a>. That’s about 1.5% of the<a href="https://climateanalytics.org/media/report-carbonbudgetforqueensland-climateanalytics-2019-web.pdf"> 420 billion tonnes</a> of CO2 world can emit between 2018 and 2100 if it wants to stay below 1.5°C of global warming. </p>
<p>This project alone exposes as a furphy the claim that natural gas is a viable transition fuel.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337483/original/file-20200526-106853-15jpclx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337483/original/file-20200526-106853-15jpclx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337483/original/file-20200526-106853-15jpclx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337483/original/file-20200526-106853-15jpclx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337483/original/file-20200526-106853-15jpclx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337483/original/file-20200526-106853-15jpclx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337483/original/file-20200526-106853-15jpclx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Woodside chief executive Peter Coleman. The company wants to build a large gas hub in northern WA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Wainwirght/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Undermining Paris</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.woodside.com.au/our-business/burrup-hub">The Burrup Hub proposal</a> involves creating a large regional hub for liquified natural gas (LNG) on the Burrup Peninsula in northern WA. It would process a huge volume of gas resources from the Scarborough, Browse and Pluto basins, as well as other sources.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2020/impact-of-burrup-hub-on-western-australias-paris-agreement-carbon-budget/">closely examined</a> this proposal, and submitted our analysis to the WA Environmental Protection Authority and the federal environment department, which are assessing the proposal.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nsw-has-approved-snowy-2-0-here-are-six-reasons-why-thats-a-bad-move-139112">NSW has approved Snowy 2.0. Here are six reasons why that's a bad move</a>
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<p>The likely scale of domestic emissions from the Burrup Hub will significantly undermine Australia’s efforts under the Paris climate agreement. To meet the Paris goals, Australia’s energy and industry sector can emit <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/media/report-carbonbudgetforwa-climateanalytics-2019-web.pdf">4.8-6.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide between 2018 and 2050</a>. By 2050, the Burrup Hub would emit 7-10% of this.</p>
<p>Woodside’s investors are clearly concerned at the potential impact of the company’s emissions. On April 30 more than <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/01/investors-call-on-australias-largest-oil-and-gas-company-to-set-greenhouse-targets">half its investors</a> <a href="https://accr.org.au/wp-content/uploads/Woodside-Resolutions-and-supporting-statements-2020.pdf">called on</a> the company to set emission reduction targets aligned with the Paris agreement for both its domestic emissions and those that occur when the gas is burned overseas. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337482/original/file-20200526-106862-1x0ad7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337482/original/file-20200526-106862-1x0ad7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337482/original/file-20200526-106862-1x0ad7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337482/original/file-20200526-106862-1x0ad7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337482/original/file-20200526-106862-1x0ad7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337482/original/file-20200526-106862-1x0ad7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337482/original/file-20200526-106862-1x0ad7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Woodside’s existing northwest shelf gas plant in WA.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rebecca Le May/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not a climate saviour</h2>
<p>Woodside has <a href="https://www.woodside.com.au/our-business/burrup-hub/burrup-hub-environmental-topics-and-approvals/greenhouse-gas-emissions">claimed</a> the proposed Burrup Hub project would help the world meet the Paris goals by substituting natural gas for coal. This claim is often used to justify the continued expansion of the LNG industry.</p>
<p>But in several <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/foot-gas-increased-reliance-natural-gas-power-sector-risks-emissions-lock-/">reports</a> and analyses, we have shown the claim is incorrect.</p>
<p>If the Paris goals are to be met, the use of natural gas in Asia’s electricity sector – a major source of demand – would need to peak by around 2030 and then decline to almost zero between 2050 and 2060. </p>
<p>Globally (and without deployment of carbon capture and storage technology), demand for gas-fired electricity will have to peak before 2030 and be halved by 2040, based on 2010 levels.</p>
<p>Our analysis found that by 2050, gas can only form just a tiny part of global electricity demand if we are to meet the Paris goals.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrisons-gas-transition-plan-is-a-dangerous-road-to-nowhere-130951">Scott Morrison's gas transition plan is a dangerous road to nowhere</a>
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<p>The electricity sector is the main source of global LNG demand at present. Emissions from gas-fired electricity production can be lowered by 80-90% by using carbon capture and storage (CCS), which traps emissions at the source and injects them underground. But this technology is increasingly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-interference-a-key-risk-to-emissions-reductions-experts-say-20200519-p54uhp.html">unlikely to compete</a> with renewable energy and storage, on either cost or environmental grounds.</p>
<p>As renewable energy and storage costs <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/451086/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-130-vf.pdf">continue to fall</a>, estimates of costs for CCS in <a href="https://www.cmu.edu/epp/iecm/rubin/PDF%20files/2015/Rubin_et_al_ThecostofCCS_IJGGC_2015.pdf">gas power generation have increased</a>, <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/inputs-assumptions-methodologies/2019/csiro-gencost2019-20_draftforreview.pdf?la=en">including in Australia</a>. And the technology doesn’t capture all emissions, so expensive efforts to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere would be required if the Paris goals are to be met.</p>
<p>Beyond the Burrup proposal, Woodside says its broader LNG export projects will help bring <a href="https://www.woodside.com.au/sustainability/climate-change">global emissions towards zero</a> by displacing coal. To justify this claim, Woodside <a href="https://www.erm.com/contentassets/782dd692a5a546db8ea0c0fa052d4e70/april2020/wel-lca-report-rev3-apr-2020/">cites</a> the International Energy Agency’s Sustainable Development Scenario. However this scenario assumes a rate of coal and gas use <a href="https://mission2020.global/letter-to-iea/">incompatible with</a> the Paris agreement.</p>
<p>This problem is even starker at the national level. We estimate LNG extraction and production creates about 9-10% of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. If we include exported LNG, the industry’s entire emissions would roughly equal 60% of Australia’s total emissions in 2017. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337490/original/file-20200526-106811-3y4lt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/337490/original/file-20200526-106811-3y4lt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337490/original/file-20200526-106811-3y4lt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337490/original/file-20200526-106811-3y4lt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337490/original/file-20200526-106811-3y4lt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337490/original/file-20200526-106811-3y4lt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/337490/original/file-20200526-106811-3y4lt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As renewables costs fall, CCS becomes less feasible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A big financial risk</h2>
<p>If the world implements the Paris agreement, demand for gas-fired electricity will likely significantly drop off by 2030. Technology trends are already pointing in that direction.</p>
<p>This creates a major risk that gas assets will become redundant. Australia will be unprepared for the resulting job losses and economic dislocation. Both WA and the federal government have a responsibility to anticipate this risk, not ignore it.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2019/oct/box-c-financial-stability-risks-from-climate-change.html">Reserve Bank of Australia has warned</a> of the economic risks to financial institutions of stranded assets in a warming world, and the Burrup Hub is a prime example of this.</p>
<p>The economic stimulus response to COVID-19 presents a <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/addressing-the-climate-and-post-covid-19-economic-crises/">major opportunity</a> for governments to direct investments towards low- and zero-carbon technologies. They must resist pressure from fossil fuel interests to do the opposite.</p>
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<p><strong>In response to the claims raised in this article, Woodside said in a statement:</strong></p>
<p><em>We support the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rises to well below 2°C, with the implicit target of global carbon neutrality by 2050. At Woodside, we want to be carbon neutral for our operations by 2050.</em></p>
<p><em>Independent expert analysis by ERM, critically reviewed by CSIRO, shows Woodside’s Browse and Scarborough projects could avoid 650 Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2-e) emissions between 2026 and 2040 by replacing higher emission fuels in countries that need our energy.</em></p>
<p><em>This means every tonne of greenhousa gas emitted in Australia from our projects equates to about 4 tonnes in emissions reduced globally. To put that in context, a 650 Mt CO2-e reduction in greenhouse gas is equivalent to cancelling out all emissions from Western Australia for more than eight years.</em></p>
<p><em>To have reliable energy and lower emissions, natural gas is essential. As a readily dispatchable power source, gas-fired power is an ideal partner with renewables to provide the necessary system stability.</em></p>
<p><em>Woodside remains committed to realising our vision for the Burrup Hub, despite the delay to final investment decisions on the projects in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and rapid decline in oil prices. We believe these projects are cost-competitive and investable, with 80-90% of their gas reserves to be produced by 2050.</em></p>
<p><em>The Burrup Hub developments have the potential to make a significant contribution to the recovery of the West Australian and national economies when we emerge from the impact of COVID-19. They will provide thousands of jobs, opportunities for local suppliers and tax and royalty revenues to the state and Australia.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133435/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare is Director and co-founder of Climate Analytics, a nonprofit climate science and policy institute headquartered in Berlin. Climate Analytics receives research and project funding from philanthropies, governments and international organisations on climate science, impacts and policy. Sources of funding include the German Government’s International Climate Initiative, the UK Government, the IKEA foundation, Climate Works Foundation, the European Climate Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Foundation, European Commission Research funds and the Koorabup Foundation. The report on the Burrup Hub cited in this article was supported in part by a grant from the Conservation Council of Western Australia. Bill Hare is also Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University, School of Engineering, Perth, Western Australia and a Visiting Scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span> Ursula Fuentes is Senior Policy Adviser with Climate Analytics, a nonprofit climate science and policy institute. Climate Analytics receives research and project funding from philanthropies, governments and international organisations on climate science, impacts and policy. Sources of funding include the German Government’s International Climate Initiative, Climate Works Foundation, the European Climate Foundation, European Commission Research funds. Ursula Fuentes is also an Adjunct Associate Professor with Murdoch University, where she works as researcher within the Energy Transition Hub in a project funded by DFAT through Melbourne University. Ursula Fuentes is affiliated with the German Green Party.
</span></em></p>Every few years, the idea of using gas to transition to a zero-emissions economy seems to re-emerge. Woodside’s Burrup Hub proposal shows why it’s still a bad move.Bill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University (Perth), Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchUrsula Fuentes, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1303092020-01-30T09:56:17Z2020-01-30T09:56:17ZHow social ‘tipping points’ could limit global warming<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311564/original/file-20200123-162228-qujam1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Achieving the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Climate Agreement</a> goal of keeping global warming to 1.5°C requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 years. The task ahead is immense. It requires dramatic technological progress, policy implementations and <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report">wide scale changes in society</a>.</p>
<p>To explore how to bring about such changes, we asked this question: is it possible to unleash tipping points within societies, which unlock positive and rapid climate action in line with keeping warming to <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/10/8-things-you-need-know-about-ipcc-15-c-report">1.5°C</a>? </p>
<p>To answer it we conducted a survey of 133 international experts in the field of sustainability research and practice. Those experts suggested potential societal transformations that could lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/interactive/emissions-gap-report/2019/">fast enough</a> to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth’s climate system.</p>
<p>The survey, an extensive literature review, and a workshop involving 17 selected experts formed the basis of our recently published <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/01/14/1900577117">research paper</a>. We found that social tipping interventions have the potential to collectively pave the way for rapid transformative change, making the seemingly impossible possible – a decarbonising global society.</p>
<h2>Positive social tipping points</h2>
<p>Fossil fuel use and emissions are at record highs because business-as-usual and conventional policy processes have proven <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/fossil-fuel-reliance-remains-stubbornly-high-report-finds-1.4082066">inadequate</a> to slow climate change. Achieving a rapid global decarbonisation to stabilise the climate depends on activating processes of social and technological change <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27082019/12-years-climate-change-explained-ipcc-science-solutions">within the next few years</a>.</p>
<p>In our paper, we identified a number of potential tipping points that could trigger such changes. These ranged from technologies to behaviours, social norms and the way society is run and governed. </p>
<p>Some examples include a shift in moral norms that leads to the removal of the fossil fuel industry’s social licence to operate. Another is reaching an economic shift where renewables out compete and displace fossil fuels. These two tipping points could in turn lead to a <a href="https://thenearlynow.com/trump-putin-and-the-pipelines-to-nowhere-742d745ce8fd?gi=4bad66fa39fe">withdrawal of capital</a> from the fossil fuel industry.</p>
<p>Our research proposes concrete interventions which could potentially trigger such tipping points. These include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivising decentralised renewable energy generation;</p></li>
<li><p>building carbon-neutral cities; </p></li>
<li><p>divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels; </p></li>
<li><p>revealing the morally harmful nature of fossil fuels; </p></li>
<li><p>strengthening climate education and engagement, and </p></li>
<li><p>building information feedback loops on greenhouse gas emissions. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The different interventions wouldn’t work in isolation. Rather, they could potentially reinforce and magnify each other, leading to a rapid decarbonisation of societies to avert some of the worst impacts of climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/311215/original/file-20200121-117938-m7r0i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Social tipping elements (STEs) and associated social tipping interventions (STIs)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Otto et al. (2020)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>On the verge of tipping?</h2>
<p>There are early signs that some of these social tipping points are close to being reached. For example, renewable energy prices are now lower than fossil fuel prices in <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2019/06/15/renewable-energy-is-now-the-cheapest-option-even-without-subsidies/">most world markets</a>. If this trend was coupled with the removal of <a href="https://theconversation.com/vast-subsidies-keeping-the-fossil-fuel-industry-afloat-should-be-put-to-better-use-119954">distorting fossil fuel subsidies</a>, it could see a rapid uptake of renewable energy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vast-subsidies-keeping-the-fossil-fuel-industry-afloat-should-be-put-to-better-use-119954">Vast subsidies keeping the fossil fuel industry afloat should be put to better use</a>
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<p>Another example is the emergence of a younger, more climate aware generation which is becoming increasingly politically active. This has led to emergence of the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02696-0">youth-led climate strike</a> and <a href="https://www.academia.edu/22236651/Divestment_as_Climate_Justice_Weighing_the_Power_of_the_Fossil_Fuel_Divestment_Movement">fossil fuel divestment movements</a>. Both have played powerful roles in exposing the moral harms created by fossil fuels. As a result, the fossil fuel industry is increasingly losing its social and moral legitimacy, with <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/oil-and-gas-sector-losing-its-social-licence-to-operate-uk-boss-warns/">a UK oil and gas boss</a>, Tim Eggar, recently warning that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>The licence to operate for the industry has changed fundamentally and – unlike the oil price – forever.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Developments like these <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-good-news-about-a-green-new-deal?verso=true">open up the possibility</a> for more transformative action. They create political and economic space for ambitious policy platforms like the <a href="https://www.gp.org/green_new_deal">Green New Deal</a> in the US, which seeks to rapidly decarbonise and transform societies for the better. Passing a Green New Deal could, in turn, inspire greater action by demonstrating <a href="https://theintercept.com/2019/04/07/green-new-deal-happiness/">the positive impacts</a> of more transformative climate action.</p>
<h2>Rethinking climate action</h2>
<p>Traditional models of climate action <a href="https://monthlyreview.org/2019/11/01/on-fire-this-time/">presume linear change</a>. Our research hopes to encourage exploration of more transformative, non-linear social tipping points and how to unlock them. Doing so can help discover novel pathways to reaching net zero emissions – and reveal what tipping points might be needed to get there.</p>
<p>Fortunately, many activists are already putting pressure on a number of these social tipping elements. Whether they’ll reach critical capacity in time to meet the Paris Climate Agreement targets depends on the agency of all of us. Financial investors, company managers, home owners, teachers, activists, public opinion leaders, young, old, and everyday people – all have a role to play as the critical minority that can tip society towards rapid decarbonisation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Lenferna currently works for 350.org - a global non-profit climate advocacy organisation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilona M. Otto received funding from the Earth League alliance. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Donges received funding from the Earth League's EarthDoc program, the Stordalen Foundation (<a href="http://pb.net/">http://pb.net/</a> Network), the Leibniz Association (DominoES), and the European Research Council (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene).</span></em></p>Social tipping interventions have the potential to pave the way for rapid change and avert climate change.Alex Lenferna, Climate Justice Campaigner with 350Africa.org, PhD in Philosophy (Climate Ethics), University of WashingtonIlona M. Otto, Research associate, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchJonathan Donges, Senior scientist, Earth system resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1271172019-11-21T05:45:32Z2019-11-21T05:45:32ZEnough ambition (and hydrogen) could get Australia to 200% renewable energy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302028/original/file-20191116-66979-lx1crv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hydrogen infrastructure in the right places is key to a cleaner, cheaper energy future.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Farena.gov.au%2Fassets%2F2017%2F11%2Fhydro.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Farena.gov.au%2Fnews%2Fhydrogen-offers-significant-exporting-potential-for-australia%2F&docid=3wTWzryyxQtxcM&tbnid=jf6ie9Q6Ne3PUM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwiDqfXdyO3lAhVOILcAHQz2CHAQMwhRKAIwAg..i&w=2248&h=1500&bih=654&biw=1169&q=arena%20hydrogen%20image&ved=0ahUKEwiDqfXdyO3lAhVOILcAHQz2CHAQMwhRKAIwAg&iact=mrc&uact=8">ARENA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The possibilities presented by hydrogen are the subject of excited discussion across the world – and across Australia’s political divide, notoriously at war over energy policy. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hydrogen-fuels-rockets-but-what-about-power-for-daily-life-were-getting-closer-112958">Hydrogen fuels rockets, but what about power for daily life? We're getting closer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>On Friday Australia’s chief scientist Alan Finkel will present a national strategy on hydrogen to state, territory and federal energy ministers. Finkel is expected to outline a plan that prioritises <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-top-scientist-calls-for-hydrogen-revolution-to-replace-fossil-fuels-20181009-p508mj.html">hydrogen exports</a> as a profitable way to reduce emissions.</p>
<p>It is to be hoped the strategy is aggressive, rather than timid. Ambition is key in lowering the cost of energy. Australia would do better aiming for 200% renewable energy or more.</p>
<p>It’s likely the national strategy will feature demonstration projects to test the feasibility of new technology, reduce costs, and find ways to share the risk of infrastructure investment between government and industry.</p>
<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/788/Sc01.gif?1574379470" width="100%"></p>
<p>There are still a number of barriers. Existing gas pipelines could be used to transport hydrogen to end-users but current laws are prohibitive, mechanisms like “certificates of origin” are required, and there are still key technology issues, particularly the cost of electrolysis.</p>
<p>These issues raise questions of what a major hydrogen economy really looks like. It may prompt suspicions this is just the a latest energy pipe dream. But our research at the <a href="https://www.energy-transition-hub.org/">Australian-German Energy Transition Hub</a> argues that an ambitious approach is better than a cautious one. </p>
<p>Aggressively pursing hydrogen exports will reduce costs of domestic energy supply and provide a basis for new export industries, such as greens steel, in a carbon-constrained world.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-australia-a-renewable-energy-exporting-superpower-107285">Making Australia a renewable energy exporting superpower</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Optimal systems cost less</h2>
<p>We used optimisation modelling to examine how a major hydrogen industry might roll out in Australia. We wanted to identify where major plants for electrolysis could be built, asked whether the existing national electricity market should supply the power, and looked at the effect on the cost of the system and, ultimately, energy affordability.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301902/original/file-20191115-47176-yqdp2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301902/original/file-20191115-47176-yqdp2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301902/original/file-20191115-47176-yqdp2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301902/original/file-20191115-47176-yqdp2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=378&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301902/original/file-20191115-47176-yqdp2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301902/original/file-20191115-47176-yqdp2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301902/original/file-20191115-47176-yqdp2r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=475&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian Hydrogen export locations.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our results show the locations for future hydrogen infrastructure investment will be mainly determined by their capital costs, the share of wind and solar generation and the capacity of electrolysers to responsively generate hydrogen to the system, and the magnitude of hydrogen production. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hydrogen-power-can-help-us-cut-emissions-boost-exports-and-even-drive-further-between-refills-101967">How hydrogen power can help us cut emissions, boost exports, and even drive further between refills</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We also identified potential demonstration projects across Australia, such as: </p>
<ul>
<li>large-scale production of liquid hydrogen and export from the Pilbara in Western Australia</li>
<li>hydrogen to support steel manufacturing in South Australia</li>
<li>injecting hydrogen into the gas networks in Victoria and support industry and electricity generation</li>
<li>hydrogen to supply transport fuel for major users such as trucks, buses and ferries in New South Wales, and </li>
<li>hydrogen to produce ammonia at an <a href="https://arena.gov.au/projects/feasibility-study-for-a-green-hydrogen-and-ammonia-project/">existing plant in Queensland</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h2>An export-oriented economy</h2>
<p>If we assume electrolysers remain expensive, around A$1,800 per kilowatt, and need to run at close to full-load capacity all the time, the result is large hydrogen exporting hubs across the country, built near high quality solar and wind power resources. Ideal locations tend to be remote from the national energy grid, such as in Western Australia and Northern Territory, or at relatively small-scale in South Australia or Tasmania.</p>
<p>There is much debate around the current cost of electrolysis, but consensus holds that economies of scale will substantially reduce these costs - by as much as an order of magnitude. This is akin to the cost reductions we have seen in solar power and batteries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302580/original/file-20191120-542-1cs7wez.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302580/original/file-20191120-542-1cs7wez.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302580/original/file-20191120-542-1cs7wez.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302580/original/file-20191120-542-1cs7wez.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302580/original/file-20191120-542-1cs7wez.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302580/original/file-20191120-542-1cs7wez.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302580/original/file-20191120-542-1cs7wez.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">200 per cent renewables scenario</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This infrastructure requires some major investment. However, our modelling shows that if Australia produces <a href="https://www.energy-transition-hub.org/resource/australias-power-advantage-energy-transition-and-hydrogen-export-scenarios">200% of our energy needs by 2050</a>, exporting the surplus, we see major drops in system costs and lower costs of energy for all Australia. If Australia can produce <a href="https://arena.gov.au/assets/2018/08/opportunities-for-australia-from-hydrogen-exports.pdf">400 Terrawatt-hours of hydrogen energy for export</a>, modelling results show the average energy cost could be reduced by more than 30%. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301903/original/file-20191115-47128-16vqhis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301903/original/file-20191115-47128-16vqhis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301903/original/file-20191115-47128-16vqhis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301903/original/file-20191115-47128-16vqhis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301903/original/file-20191115-47128-16vqhis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301903/original/file-20191115-47128-16vqhis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301903/original/file-20191115-47128-16vqhis.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hydrogen ambition reduces costs of electricity supply.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The driving factor is our level of ambition. The more we lean into decarbonising our economy with green energy, the further the costs fall. The savings from the integrated and optimised use of electrolysers in a renewable-heavy national electricity market outweigh the cost of building large renewable resources in remote locations. </p>
<p>A large hydrogen export industry could generate both substantial export revenue and substantial benefits to the domestic economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302579/original/file-20191120-547-1a0dv1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302579/original/file-20191120-547-1a0dv1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302579/original/file-20191120-547-1a0dv1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302579/original/file-20191120-547-1a0dv1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302579/original/file-20191120-547-1a0dv1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302579/original/file-20191120-547-1a0dv1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/302579/original/file-20191120-547-1a0dv1s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hydrogen export economy versus true RE economy</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To sum up, the picture above shows two possible hydrogen futures for Australia. </p>
<p>In the first, Australia lacks climate actions and electrolyser costs remain high with limited economies of scale, and we export from key remote hubs such as the Pilbara. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-a-national-renewables-approach-or-some-states-like-nsw-will-miss-out-121192">We need a national renewables approach, or some states – like NSW – will miss out</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the other, ambition increases and costs drop, and the hydrogen export industry connects to the national grid, providing both renewable exports and benefits to the grid. This also promotes the use of hydrogen in the domestic market. Australia embraces a true renewable economy and a new chapter of major energy exports begins.</p>
<p>Either way, Australia is primed to become a hydrogen exporting superpower.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127117/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Hamilton is affiliated with H4 CO PTY LTD, is a panel member of the Australian-German Energy Transition Hub and is a member of the Australian Labor Party. His wife owns shares in energy companies listed on the ASX and he consults to governments, businesses and community organisations, including the NSW Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Changlong Wang received funding from CSIRO. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Dargaville has previously received funding from ARENA, Victorian State Government and from EnergyAustralia</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Falko Ueckerdt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia can become a renewable energy exporting superpower, but timidity won’t get us there.Scott Hamilton, Strategic Advisory Panel Member, Australian-German Energy Transition Hub, The University of MelbourneChanglong Wang, Researcher, The Energy Transition Hub, The University of MelbourneFalko Ueckerdt, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchRoger Dargaville, Senior lecturer, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1264292019-11-05T01:02:18Z2019-11-05T01:02:18ZOur shameful legacy: just 15 years’ worth of emissions will raise sea level in 2300<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300189/original/file-20191105-88399-uwie3r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indonesian residents wade through flood water near the Ciliwung river in Jakarta in February 2018. Our emissions in the near future will lock in sea level rise over centuries.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Greenhouse gas emissions released over the first 15 years of the Paris Agreement would alone lock in 20cm of sea-level rise in centuries to come, according to new research published today.</p>
<p>The paper shows that what the world pumps into the atmosphere today has grave long-term consequences. It underscores the need for governments to dramatically scale up their emission reduction ambition - including Australia, where climate action efforts have been paltry. </p>
<p>The report is the first to quantify the sea-level rise contribution of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions that countries would release if they met their current Paris pledges.</p>
<p>The 20cm sea-level rise is equal to that observed over the entire 20th century. It would comprise one-fifth of the 1m sea level rise projected for 2300. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300182/original/file-20191105-88368-xezxzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300182/original/file-20191105-88368-xezxzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300182/original/file-20191105-88368-xezxzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300182/original/file-20191105-88368-xezxzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300182/original/file-20191105-88368-xezxzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300182/original/file-20191105-88368-xezxzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300182/original/file-20191105-88368-xezxzd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A satellite image showing meltwater ponding in northwest Greenland near the ice sheet’s edge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The picture is bleak</h2>
<p>The study was led by researchers at Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and was <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/10/31/1907461116">published today by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</a>. It estimated the sea level rise to be locked in by 2300 due to greenhouse gas emissions between 2016 and 2030 - the first pledge period on the Paris treaty.</p>
<p>During those 15 years, emissions would cause sea levels to rise by 20cm by 2300. Even if the world cut all emissions to zero in 2030, sea levels would still rise in 2300. These estimates do not take into account the irreversible melting of parts of the Antarctic ice sheet.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-the-nations-leading-and-failing-on-climate-action-123581">The good, the bad and the ugly: the nations leading and failing on climate action</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The researchers found that just over half of the sea level rise can be attributed to the top five polluters: China, the US, the European Union, India and Russia.</p>
<p>The emissions of these jurisdictions under will cause seas to rise by 12cm by 2300, the study shows. </p>
<p>The important takeaway message is that what the world does now will take years to play out - it is a stark warning of the long-term consequences of our actions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300184/original/file-20191105-88399-eyfuml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300184/original/file-20191105-88399-eyfuml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300184/original/file-20191105-88399-eyfuml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300184/original/file-20191105-88399-eyfuml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300184/original/file-20191105-88399-eyfuml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300184/original/file-20191105-88399-eyfuml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300184/original/file-20191105-88399-eyfuml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Severe storms at Collaroy on Sydney’s northern beaches caused major damage to beachfront homes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">UNSW WATER RESEARCH</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>It’s worse than we thought</h2>
<p>Last week a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z">separate paper in Nature Communications</a> showed sea-level rise could affect many more people than previously thought. The authors produced a new digital elevation model that showed many of the world’s coastlines are far lower than estimated with standard methods.</p>
<p>In low-lying parts of coastal Australia, for example, the previous data has
overestimated elevation by an average of 2.5m.</p>
<p>Their projections for the millions of people to be affected by sea-level rise are frightening. Within three decades, rising sea levels could push chronic floods higher than land currently home to 300 million people. By 2100, areas home to 200 million people could be permanently below the high tide line.</p>
<h2>But what of Australia, girt by sea?</h2>
<p>Australia is a coastal nation: the vast majority of our population lives <a href="http://theconversation.com/australias-coastal-living-is-at-risk-from-sea-level-rise-but-its-happened-before-87686">within 50km of the sea</a>, and will be heavily impacted by sea-level rise. Already, we’re seeing severe coastal erosion and inundation during king tides - and that’s without factoring in the impact of storm surges.</p>
<p>Clearly the world needs strong climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as fast as possible. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said</a> emissions must be lowered to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030 and to zero by mid-century.</p>
<p>We also know that unless the world achieves this, we will not just lose parts of our coasts but also iconic ecosystems <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/our-work/threats-to-the-reef/climate-change">such as the Great Barrier Reef</a>. </p>
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<p>Australia’s emissions comprise a relatively small proportion of the global total - 1.4% or around 5% if we count coal and liquified natural gas exports. However, we have a much bigger diplomatic and political influence on the international stage.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-hidden-opportunity-to-cut-carbon-emissions-and-make-money-in-the-process-124095">Australia's hidden opportunity to cut carbon emissions, and make money in the process</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australia should use its position to push for urgent action internationally. But the federal government’s appalling record on emissions reduction - <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/26/scott-morrison-says-australias-record-on-climate-change-misrepresented-by-media">despite its efforts to claim otherwise</a> - puts us in a very weak position on the global stage. We cannot point fingers at other nations while our emissions rise and we sell as much coal as possible to the rest of the world, while also burning as much as we can.</p>
<hr>
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<p>All the while, Australia is becoming the poster child for extreme sea-level events, more frequent and severe bushfires and other devastating climate impacts.</p>
<p>Governments, including Australia’s, must put forward much stronger 2030 emission reduction pledges by 2020. There should seek to decarbonise at a pace in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal.</p>
<p>Otherwise, our emissions today will cause seas to rise far into the future. This process cannot be reversed - it will be our legacy to future generations.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Climate Analytics researcher Alexander Nauels was lead author of the study.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126429/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare is a Director of Climate Analytics, a nonprofit climate science and policy institute. Climate Analytics receives research and project funding from philanthropies, governments and international organisations on climate science, impacts and policy. Sources of funding include the German Government’s (BMUB) International Climate Initiative, Climate Works Foundation, the European Climate Foundation, European Commission Research funds, the UK Government's Climate Development Knowledge Network. Bill Hare is directing the IMPACT Project, which provides scientific, policy, analytical and strategic support, capacity building and advice for delegations from small island states and least developed countries in international climate negotiations.</span></em></p>New research confirms that what the world pumps into the atmosphere today has grave long-term consequences. Governments - especially Australia’s - must urgently ramp up efforts to reduce emissions.Bill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University (Perth), Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1235812019-09-17T20:32:00Z2019-09-17T20:32:00ZThe good, the bad and the ugly: the nations leading and failing on climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292718/original/file-20190917-19045-bqc0jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Children play near a coal-fired power plant in the town of Obilic, Kosovo, in November 2018</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Valdrin Xhemaj </span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><strong>This piece is part of Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of more than 250 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.</strong></em></p>
<p>It is almost five years since the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">landmark Paris deal</a> was struck. Nearly 200 countries agreed to work towards limiting global warming to 1.5°C, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">beyond which the planet is expected to slide</a> irreversibly towards devastating climate change impacts. </p>
<p>But few nations are on track to reaching this goal. Right now, we’re <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-07/climate-change-un-data-shows-2018-fourth-hottest/10788072">heading to warming above 3°C</a> by 2100 - and this will have catastrophic consequences for the planet.</p>
<p>United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has called a <a href="https://www.un.org/climatechange/">major climate summit</a> in New York on September 23, where countries are expected to announce more ambitious climate targets than they set in Paris, and solid plans to achieve them.</p>
<p>Ahead of the summit, let’s take stock of the world’s best and worst performers when it comes to tackling the climate emergency.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man standing near a wind farm near Urumuqi, China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Qilai Shen/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Australia is keeping poor company</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org">Climate Action Tracker</a> is an independent scientific analysis produced by two research organisations tracking climate action since 2009. It monitors 32 countries, accounting for more than 80% of global emissions. </p>
<p>We looked in detail at who has made the most progress since 2015, and who has done the least. <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia/">Australia</a> sits firmly in the group of governments we labelled as actually delaying global climate action, alongside the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/">United States</a> (which under President Donald Trump has walked away from the Paris agreement altogether).</p>
<p>Other countries delaying global climate action with highly insufficient targets and no progress since 2015 are the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/russian-federation/">Russian Federation</a>, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/saudi-arabia/">Saudi Arabia</a>, the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/uae/">United Arab Emirates</a>, and <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/">Indonesia</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, past and projected. Data drawn from Department of the Environment and Energy report titled ‘Australia’s emissions projections 2018’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department of the Environment and Energy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/e2b0a880-74b9-436b-9ddd-941a74d81fad/files/nggi-quarterly-update-june-2018.pdf">Australia’s emissions are at a seven-year high</a>, and continue to rise. The government’s commitment to fossil fuels remains unwavering - from coal projects such as Adani’s proposed Carmichael mine in Queensland to huge <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/lng-boom-is-back-surge-in-projects-tipped-for-next-six-years-20190426-p51hj3.html">new gas projects</a>. </p>
<p>Australia is the world’s largest exporter of coal, providing <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/media/australia_carbon_footprint_report_july2019.pdf">29% of coal’s global trade</a>, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-qatar-lng/australia-grabs-worlds-biggest-lng-exporter-crown-from-qatar-in-nov-idUSKBN1O907N">last year also became</a> the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. Its exported fossil fuel emissions currently represent around <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/latest/australia-on-track-to-become-one-of-the-worlds-major-climate-polluters/">3.6% of global emissions</a>.</p>
<h2>The surprising success stories</h2>
<p><a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/ethiopia/">Ethiopia</a>, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/morocco/">Morocco</a> and <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/">India</a> top the list of countries doing the most to tackle climate change. In total, eight international jurisdictions have made good progress since 2015, including the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu/">European Union</a>, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada/">Canada</a>, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/chile/">Chile</a>, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/costa-rica/">Costa Rica</a>, and <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/">Argentina</a> (although they still have a lot of work ahead to meet the 1.5°C goal). </p>
<p>While India still relies on coal, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-renewables-coal/india-plans-330-billion-renewables-push-by-2030-without-hurting-coal-idUSKCN1TZ18G">its renewables industry</a> is making huge leaps forward, with investments in renewable energy topping fossil fuel investments. The country is expected to over-achieve its Paris Agreement target.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lightning in the night sky over the Odervorland wind farm near Sieversdorf, Germany.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Pleul/DPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So what are they doing right? <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/costa-rica-commits-to-fully-decarbonize-by-2050">Costa Rica’s national decarbonisation plan</a> covers the entire economy, including electrifying the public transport system, and huge energy efficiency measures in the industry, transport and buildings sectors. Costa Rica has also put a <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/07/11/need-non-proliferation-treaty-fossil-fuels/">moratorium on new oil production</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu/">EU is set to overachieve</a> its 2030 target of reducing emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 and is in the process of considering an increase in this to at least 50%. It has recently increased its renewable energy and energy efficiency goals, and is sorting out its emissions trading scheme, with prices of emission units increasing.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-to-attend-climate-summit-empty-handed-despite-un-pleas-to-come-with-a-plan-123187">Australia to attend climate summit empty-handed despite UN pleas to ‘come with a plan'</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>This, together with past investments in renewable energy, have helped to achieve a 15% reduction in German electricity sector emissions in the first half of 2019. Whilst <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/537/CAT_2019-06-19_SB50_CAT_Update.pdf">Germany has missed its 2020 targets</a>, it has begun a process to phase out coal no later than 2038 – still a number of years too late for a Paris-compatible pathway. </p>
<h2>Quitting coal is key</h2>
<p>An increasing number of countries are adopting net zero emissions targets, many of them in the European Union, and some outside. Some, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/05/uk-coal-fired-power-plants-close-2025">like the UK, have dumped coal,</a> and are well on the way to achieving those targets.</p>
<p>A global phase-out of coal for electricity is the single most important step toward achieving the 1.5°C warming limit. At the latest, <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2016/implications-of-the-paris-agreement-for-coal-use-in-the-power-sector/">this should be achieved by</a> 2050 globally, by 2030 in the OECD and 2040 in China and other Asian countries.</p>
<p>There are some signs of optimism here. On <a href="https://endcoal.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BoomAndBust_2019_r6.pdf">one estimate</a>, the number of coal projects in the pipeline shrunk by nearly 70% between 2015 and 2018, and investors are increasingly wary of the technology. Yet coal is still set to boom in Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan and Turkey.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under current polities, the world is set for more than 3°C of warming by 2100.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Action Tracker</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-gloves-are-off-predatory-climate-deniers-are-a-threat-to-our-children-123594">The gloves are off: 'predatory' climate deniers are a threat to our children</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In 2018, <a href="https://www.iea.org/geco/emissions/">energy-related carbon dioxide emissions reached a historic high.</a> While coal reversed its recent decline, emissions from <a href="https://www.iea.org/geco/gas/">natural gas surged by 4.6%</a>.</p>
<p>Renewable energy is the key to unlocking rapid decarbonisation. It already supplies more than <a href="https://www.iea.org/geco/renewables/">26% of global electricity generation</a> and its costs are dropping rapidly. To accelerate this fundamental transition, more governments need to adopt and improve policies that enable renewable technologies to be rolled out faster. This would contribute to low-carbon economic development and job creation. </p>
<h2>Don’t forget about trees</h2>
<p>Nowhere is the alarming rate of global deforestation more obvious than in Brazil, now in the middle of a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-21/wildfires-raging-through-the-amazon-rainforest-at-record-rate/11434866">record fire season</a>. It adds to damage wrought by President Jair Bolsonaro who has <a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-fires-jair-bolsonaro-faces-mounting-political-backlash-in-brazil-even-from-his-allies-122512">weakened his country’s institutional framework</a> preventing forest loss.</p>
<p>In 2018, Brazil recorded the <a href="http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes">world’s highest loss of tropical primary rainforest</a> of any country - 1.3 million hectares - largely in the Amazon. The deforestation reached 7,900 square km in 2018, a 72% increase from the historic low in 2012.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fire fighting efforts this month in an indigenous reserve in Humaita, in Brazil’s Amazon forest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">FERNANDO BIZERRA/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The past few weeks have shown us what 1°C of global warming means. <a href="http://theconversation.com/hurricane-dorian-where-it-hit-where-its-headed-and-why-its-so-destructive-122937">Hurricane Dorian</a>, fuelled by high sea-surface temperatures, wiped out the northern Bahamas. Temperatures in the 40s <a href="http://theconversation.com/heatwave-completely-obliterated-the-record-for-europes-hottest-ever-june-119801">set records across Europe</a>. And in Queensland, the earliest fire season on record destroyed homes and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/10/i-never-thought-id-see-the-australian-rainforest-burning-what-will-it-take-for-us-to-wake-up-to-the-climate-crisis">razed rainforests</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-07/climate-change-un-data-shows-2018-fourth-hottest/10788072">predicted 3°C</a> of warming by 2100 will bring a lot worse: widespread crop failures, dead coral reefs, more extreme heat waves and major threats to water supply and human health. </p>
<p>The world can avoid this, but time is running out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare is a Director of Climate Analytics, a nonprofit climate science and policy institute. Climate Analytics receives research and project funding from philanthropies, governments and international organisations on climate science, impacts and policy. Sources of funding include the German Government’s (BMUB) International Climate Initiative, Climate Works Foundation, the European Climate Foundation, European Commission Research funds, the UK Government's Climate Development Knowledge Network. Bill Hare is directing the IMPACT Project, which provides scientific, policy, analytical and strategic support, capacity building and advice for delegations from small island states and least developed countries in international climate negotiations.
</span></em></p>Ahead of the UN climate summit, we take stock of the world’s best and worst performers on climate action - including some surprise success stories.Bill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University (Perth), Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1035732018-12-10T14:44:05Z2018-12-10T14:44:05ZCOP24 in coal country: why Poland is Europe’s climate denial capital<p>European <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0120.1">polling</a> on climate change denial puts Poland towards the top – or bottom, depending on which way you view it – of the leader board. Though the UN’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/cop24-62779">COP24 climate conference</a> is currently being hosted in its southern city of Katowice, Poland itself has displayed little concern over global warming. Indeed, the EU’s <a href="http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nrg_101a&lang=en">largest coal producer</a> often opposes any attempt to get it to cut its carbon emissions. What’s driving such potent scepticism?</p>
<p>With minimal media coverage of climate change, climate impacts, or policy, Poland is an outlier in Europe. This is particularly surprising because EU climate policy, and the possibility of a stiff carbon tax in future, has significant long-term implications for the country’s economy.</p>
<p>The issue partly dates back to the collapse of communism in Poland that began in 1989. The resulting industrial decline and overhaul of outdated and highly polluting sectors caused a rapid decrease in CO₂ emissions. </p>
<p>All this meant that when Poland joined the EU and signed up to the Kyoto Protocol it could easily meet its generous emissions targets as they were set relative to 1988, when its polluting industries were still in full swing. However, new EU climate and energy legislation will soon kick in and comparing Polish emissions with a more recent year will make things harder.</p>
<h2>A climate of denial</h2>
<p>In our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17524032.2017.1394890">academic research</a>, we have looked at why there is so little coverage of climate issues in the Polish media. </p>
<p>In part, it’s a reflection of the prominence of climate deniers, both politicians and scientists, in the media. Many politicians in Poland have <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17524032.2017.1394890">publicly announced scepticism</a>, not only about climate policy but also about the scientific findings on climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247965/original/file-20181129-170235-h99ug3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247965/original/file-20181129-170235-h99ug3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247965/original/file-20181129-170235-h99ug3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247965/original/file-20181129-170235-h99ug3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247965/original/file-20181129-170235-h99ug3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247965/original/file-20181129-170235-h99ug3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247965/original/file-20181129-170235-h99ug3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An unbalanced media is responsible for much of the climate scepticism in Poland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/creative-tv-manipulation-brainwash-background-people-1061128493?src=cwryxXXw6UwX2kbGRjbZLA-2-38">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is also relatively easy for incompetent people to gain a sizeable platform. We found that, typically, denialist scientists featured in the Polish media <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0120.1">are not climatologists</a>, but rather medical scientists, geologists, economists, or engineers from the energy or mining sectors.</p>
<p>There is also no publicly-owned media in Poland, except for <a href="https://en.ejo.ch/recent/poland">public television and radio</a>, which has <a href="http://visegradrevue.eu/polish-media-under-fire-a-great-transformation-or-a-standard-changing-of-the-guard/">been politicised</a> by the coal-friendly ruling party. Commercial media competes for a small audience, and as a result is much more likely to touch on controversial points of view than to try to analyse them.</p>
<p>There has also been little media coverage in Poland of the UN’s IPCC reports on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-1-5-report-heres-what-the-climate-science-says-104592">scientific consensus about climate change</a>, and a complete absence of politicians promptly reacting to the reports. This lack of coverage can be partly explained by the relative scarcity of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17524032.2017.1394890">IPCC authors from Poland</a>. But journalists and editors are unlikely to choose a topic that they know is of little interest to their audiences and it appears that many Poles believe the cure – climate change mitigation – could be worse for Poland than the disease.</p>
<h2>A powerful coal lobby</h2>
<p>Much of this can be traced back to the influence of the coal lobby, which has been powerful ever since communist times when exports were a vital source of convertible (foreign) currency. Poland is today the largest coal producer in the EU, and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17524032.2017.1394890">around 60%</a> of the country’s overall energy comes from coal. No wonder sentiment towards fossil fuel <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0120.1">remains strong</a>.</p>
<p>This is why most Polish politicians will nominally support taking action on climate change, regardless of political orientation – but only as long as it does not mean moving away from coal. They frequently speak of the importance of coal to the economy and energy security, yet they conveniently ignore or downplay the coal-climate link. There is a strong <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0120.1">“inconvenient truth”</a> at work as burning coal is, globally, responsible for much of the ongoing climate change. </p>
<p>Even past increases in the price of domestic coal have not helped renewable energies, but rather resulted in Poland <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17524032.2017.1394890">importing cheaper coal</a> from abroad while <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/poland-coal-idUSL8N13T2YO20151204">propping up its own industry</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247968/original/file-20181129-170253-1t6gdut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247968/original/file-20181129-170253-1t6gdut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247968/original/file-20181129-170253-1t6gdut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247968/original/file-20181129-170253-1t6gdut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247968/original/file-20181129-170253-1t6gdut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247968/original/file-20181129-170253-1t6gdut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247968/original/file-20181129-170253-1t6gdut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Poland’s energy supply is largely dominated by coal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coal-mining-open-pit-637050169?src=8BzaUp1boZLWHZDdYYZSAA-1-2">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Too great a cost?</h2>
<p>Most Poles recognise the benefits of being in the EU and understand that Poland must play by the rules. Yet many other voices are demanding renegotiation of an EU climate and energy package that they say is <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2017.1394890">harmful to their nation</a>. Indeed, many perceived this an externally-driven policy problem, imposed from abroad. They expect more effective action from non-EU countries which emit most of the world’s carbon dioxide.</p>
<p>Like other EU members, Poland would eventually like to decarbonise its energy sector. However, concerns remain over the abrupt introduction of a high carbon tax and the threat of “carbon leakage” where <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2017.1394890">coal production and jobs shift eastwards from Poland</a> to countries that are not obliged to reduce emissions under the Kyoto Protocol.</p>
<p>For now, a switch from cheap coal to a more costly low-emission economy is politically unpalatable. Popular opinion and a wide range of politicians simply do not support the vision of leaving coal underground and paying more for energy. The country is still poorer than those in Western Europe, and the fear of energy price hikes is overwhelming. Don’t expect Poland or its media to embrace climate action any time soon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Painter received funding for the original research via the Joint Programming Initiative (JPI) Climate Project “AR5 in Europe,” funded by the Norwegian Research Council (Norges Forskningsråd).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The UN climate talks are being held in a nation dominated by cheap coal.Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Professor of Earth Sciences , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchJames Painter, Research Associate, Reuters Institute, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/799732017-06-25T19:20:17Z2017-06-25T19:20:17ZL’épisode caniculaire de juin pourrait coûter jusqu’à 12 milliards d’euros<p>Le 21 juin, <a href="http://vigilance.meteofrance.com/">Météo France</a> a placé 67 départements en vigilance orange pour la canicule. Selon les données de l’<a href="http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/50865999-vague-de-chaleur-en-france-cette-semaine">institut</a>, les températures de cette semaine sont « une douzaine de degrés supérieur » aux normales saisonnières.</p>
<p>La température moyenne au cours de ce mois de juin est de l’ordre de 19 à 19,5 °C (pour l’ensemble des cellules couvrant la France selon le modèle climatique <a href="ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Datasets/ncep.reanalysis/surface/">NCEP</a>). Ces températures sont largement supérieures à celles observées en moyenne au cours de la période 1956-2005 (utilisée ici comme période de référence), habituellement comprises entre 16,5 et 17 °C. Cependant, même si ces températures sont largement au-dessus de la moyenne, elles restent encore très inférieures à la température moyenne mesurée au cours en juin 2003 au-dessus de 21 °C.</p>
<p>Depuis 2003, les conséquences des vagues de chaleur sont essentiellement observées et craintes à la lueur de leurs conséquences sanitaires. Avec plus de 14 800 morts, les températures très élevées <a href="https://www.senat.fr/rap/r03-195/r03-195.html">des mois d’été 2003</a> ont particulièrement marqué les esprits et affecté l’ensemble du territoire français.</p>
<p>Mais au-delà de ces conséquences humaines et sanitaires, les vagues de chaleur ont également un effet néfaste très important sur l’activité économique ; elles peuvent ainsi être mesurées au niveau de la croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB). Une estimation préliminaire pour l’effet de la canicule du mois de juin 2017, situerait la réduction entre 0,25 et 0,54 point de croissance du PIB pour ce mois-ci.</p>
<h2>Un effet macroéconomique difficile à évaluer</h2>
<p>Au cours des dernières années, de plus en plus d’économistes ont commencé à s’intéresser aux conséquences macroéconomiques de la température (et de son augmentation) et des aléas climatiques.</p>
<p>Quelques semaines avant la conférence de Paris, fin 2015, trois chercheurs californiens ont publié dans la revue scientifique <em>Nature</em> une <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725">étude</a> montrant les effets du réchauffement climatique sur les revenus des habitants au niveau global.</p>
<p>Ils indiquent ainsi que d’ici à la fin du siècle, le PIB par habitant pourrait être environ 23 % plus faible dans un scénario de fort réchauffement (à savoir le <a href="http://www.drias-climat.fr/accompagnement/sections/175">scénario RCP8.5</a> établi par les experts du GIEC) que dans un scénario sans changement climatique. Plus récemment, en 2017, des chercheurs de l’Université de l’Arizona du Nord, utilisant une méthode statistique relativement différente, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176517300277">ont estimé</a> des conséquences sur la production économique potentiellement plus élevées.</p>
<h2>Avec la chaleur, l’économie à la peine</h2>
<p>Les mécanismes à l’œuvre contribuant à cette décroissance de la production ne sont encore que partiellement compris. Il existe cependant quatre points principalement étudiés que sont la productivité du travail, la production agricole, la santé et l’énergie.</p>
<p><strong>• Les effets sur la productivité du travail</strong><br>
Avec de telles températures, la capacité physiologique à travailler et à se concentrer s’estompe ; les pauses, notamment pour s’hydrater, deviennent plus fréquentes et plus longues. Pour certaines professions s’exerçant en extérieur – on pense aux travaux du bâtiment ou publics –, la chaleur intenable empêche le déroulement normal des activités. Bien que temporaires, ces micro-effets, une fois accumulés, <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/jisungpark/publications/feeling-heat-temperature-physiology-and-wealth-nations">sont mesurables</a> au niveau du PIB.</p>
<p><strong>• Les effets sur la production agricole</strong><br>
Les périodes de grande chaleur, principalement en période de germination et de croissance, peuvent avoir des conséquences majeures sur la production agricole. Une étude menée aux États-Unis montre qu’une journée avec des températures approchant les 40 °C pourrait conduire à une <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106">réduction de 7 %</a> des rendements du maïs. Une étude sur la France montre que le rendement du blé est également <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa723b">très négativement influencé</a> par les vagues de chaleur dans la plupart des départements français.</p>
<p><strong>• Les effets sur la santé</strong><br>
La canicule de 2003 a causé la mort prématurée de <a href="https://www.senat.fr/rap/r03-195/r03-195.html">plus de 14 800 personnes</a>, principalement parmi les personnes âgées. Bien que les pouvoirs publics aient pris des mesures pour éviter de telles conséquences sur la population française, ces effets sont toujours possibles. <a href="http://econ.ucsb.edu/%7Eolivier/DG_AEJ_AE_2011.pdf">Une étude</a> a mesuré pour les États-Unis a montré, qu’au cours de la période allant de 1968 à 2002, les journées de forte chaleur étaient associées avec une surmortalité.</p>
<p><strong>• Les effets sur le secteur énergétique</strong><br>
Le risque est ici double. Il s’applique tant à la <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613193114">demande qui augmente</a> rapidement du fait des besoins, notamment en climatisation, qu’à la baisse de capacité de production – créant potentiellement des tensions sur le réseau d’approvisionnement. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2903">Une étude sur l’Europe</a> montre qu’à l’horizon 2050, dans un scénario de fort réchauffement, l’effet cumulé de l’augmentation de la température des eaux et de sa disponibilité pourrait réduire la capacité de production des centrales hydroélectriques et thermoélectriques françaises de 10 à plus de 15 % par rapport à un scénario sans changement climatique.</p>
<h2>Premier bilan pour cette canicule 2017</h2>
<p>L’Insee a produit une <a href="https://www.senat.fr/rap/r03-195/r03-19510.html">estimation</a> de l’impact de la canicule du 2003 qui aurait « amputé la croissance entre 0,1 et 0,2 point de PIB […], ce qui représente entre 15 à 30 milliards d’euros ».</p>
<p>Il est difficile de mesurer les effets macroéconomiques de la toute récente vague de chaleur, pour des raisons de données et de méthodes statistiques. Cependant, en ayant à l’esprit les limitations méthodologique et statistique liées à un tel exercice, nous pouvons fournir une estimation préliminaire, simplifiée et indicative présentée dans la figure ci-dessous. Le coût de la vague de chaleur qui vient de toucher la France pourrait ainsi se chiffrer entre 0,25 et 0,54 point de croissance pour le mois de juin 2017 seul, soit entre 4,7 et 12,2 milliards d’euros environ (sur la base du <a href="https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2850642">PIB de 2016</a> de 2 228,9 milliards d’euros).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175362/original/file-20170623-27912-1bmlmlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175362/original/file-20170623-27912-1bmlmlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/175362/original/file-20170623-27912-1bmlmlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175362/original/file-20170623-27912-1bmlmlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175362/original/file-20170623-27912-1bmlmlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175362/original/file-20170623-27912-1bmlmlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175362/original/file-20170623-27912-1bmlmlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/175362/original/file-20170623-27912-1bmlmlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Réduction indicative du PIB pour les mois de juin 2003 et 2017 par rapport à la période de référence 1956-2005.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rapport du Sénat sur la canicule de 2003/Coefficients de Burke et coll. (2015)/Données climatiques de NCEP</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Il faut insister sur le fait que ce calcul est à vocation illustrative et qu’il demeure très dépendant des hypothèses utilisées. Ces estimations pour la vague de chaleur actuelle fournissent cependant une première impression des risques économiques induits par les aléas climatiques et de la vulnérabilité de la société française.</p>
<h2>Que faire ?</h2>
<p>Si pour faire face aux vagues de chaleur, respecter les mesures de précaution préconisées par les <a href="http://inpes.santepubliquefrance.fr/10000/themes/evenement_climatique/canicule/canicule-agir.asp">pouvoirs publics</a> est essentiel, sur le plus long terme, il apparaît nécessaire de s’y adapter. Un article publié en 2017 dans la revue scientifique <a href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n6/full/nclimate3301.html"><em>Nature Climate Change</em></a> évoque à ce propos diverses pistes : la végétalisation des toits, l’installation de revêtements reflétant mieux la chaleur, etc.</p>
<p>Une <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3322">étude</a> très récente sur les vagues de chaleur mortelles dans 164 villes de 36 pays montre que le réchauffement climatique entraînera une très rapide augmentation de ces épisodes à moins que le réchauffement ne soit gardé bien en dessous de la limite de 2 °C de hausse. Ce risque posé par le changement climatique sur les villes est de mieux en mieux appréhendé au niveau politique, un exemple notable en est le développement du <a href="http://www.c40.org">C40</a> (91 villes représentant 25 % du PIB global) dirigé par la maire de Paris, Anne Hidalgo. Très engagé, le C40 a adopté une position visant à atteindre l’objectif de limiter l’augmentation des températures globales à 1,5 °C tel que disposé dans l’Accord de Paris.</p>
<p>Incontestablement, une réduction drastique des émissions de gaz à effet de serre – dont la concentration dans l’atmosphère provoque une hausse des températures et des événements climatiques extrêmes – est l’approche la plus sûre contre les effets sociaux, économiques et sanitaires des vagues de chaleur et du changement climatique sur le moyen et long terme.</p>
<p>Ainsi, le respect et la mise en œuvre de l’<a href="http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/french_paris_agreement.pdf">Accord de Paris</a> sur le climat, visant à « contenir l’élévation de la température moyenne de la planète nettement en dessous de 2 °C par rapport aux niveaux préindustriels et en poursuivant l’action menée pour limiter l’élévation de la température à 1,5 °C », apparaît comme l’assurance la plus efficace contre les effets de ces épisodes caniculaires rendus plus fréquents par le changement climatique.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Note méthodologique sur le calcul</strong></em><br>
<em>En utilisant les coefficients de l’<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725">étude de Burke et coll.</a>, le risque économique additionnel lié à l’augmentation de la température moyenne pour les mois de juin 2003 et 2017 est calculé par rapport au mois de juin de la période de référence (ici 1956-2005). Dans la mesure où notre estimation préliminaire pour le mois de juin 2003 est plus élevée que celle <a href="https://www.senat.fr/rap/r03-195/r03-19510.html">établie par l’Insee</a> pour la canicule de 2003, la réduction pour juin 2017 est ajustée sur la base des estimations de l’Insee. Pour cet ajustement, il est assumé que seuls les mois de juin et d’août 2003 ont contribué à la réduction du PIB mesurée par l’Insee, et cela de manière égale. Ainsi, la réduction pour juin et août 2003 aurait été comprise entre 0,6 et 1,2 point de croissance. Sur la base de cette fourchette, les estimations utilisant les coefficients de l’étude de Burke et coll. sont ajustées. Pour la vague de chaleur actuelle, une possible réduction du PIB entre 0,25 et 0,54 point de croissance est mesurée, soit environ moins que la moitié de l’effet mesuré pour 2003.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Florent Baarsch a reçu des financements de la Banque mondiale, le Programme des Nations unies pour l’environnement (PNUE), Programme des Nations unies pour le développement (PNUE) et d’autres agences des Nations unies. Il fait également partie d’un projet financé par le ministère allemand de l’environnement (BMUB). Il est économiste à Climate Analytics et doctorant à PIK (Potsdam, Allemagne) et CESIfo (Munich, Allemagne).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare is a Director of Climate Analytics, a nonprofit climate science and policy institute. Climate Analytics receives research and project funding from philanthropies, governments and international organisations on climate science, impacts and policy. Sources of funding include the German Government’s (BMUB) International Climate Initiative, Climate Works Foundation, the European Climate Foundation, European Commission Research funds, the UK Government's Climate Development Knowledge Network. Bill Hare is directing the IMPACT Project, which provides scientific, policy, analytical and strategic support, capacity building and advice for delegations from small island states and least developed countries in international climate negotiations.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michiel Schaeffer is a Director of Climate Analytics, a nonprofit climate science and policy institute. Climate Analytics receives research and project funding from philanthropies, governments and international organisations on climate science, impacts and policy. Michiel Schaeffer leads and contributes to projects funded by the German Government’s (BMUB) International Climate Initiative, Climate Works Foundation, Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, European Climate Foundation, European Commission Research funds (Horizon 2020), United Nations Environment Programme, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, African Development Bank, World Bank. </span></em></p>Au-delà des conséquences humaines et sanitaires, les vagues de chaleur ont un effet néfaste très important sur l’activité économique.Florent Baarsch, Economist, Climate Analytics (Berlin), PhD candidate, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchBill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics (Berlin), Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University (Perth), Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchMichiel Schaeffer, Science Director, Climate Analytics (Berlin), Guest member Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/787272017-06-01T20:03:18Z2017-06-01T20:03:18ZWill the Paris Agreement still be able to deliver after the US withdrawal?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171875/original/file-20170601-25700-1b0xlg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Arc de Triomphe Is illuminated in green to celebrate the Paris Agreement's entry into force.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Arc_de_Triomphe_Is_Illuminated_in_Green_to_Celebrate_Paris_Agreement's_Entry_into_Force.jpg">U.S. Department of State from United States</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the short term, the United States’ withdrawal from the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris_en">Paris Agreement</a> will certainly have ripple effects globally. But rather than fatally undermine the Paris Agreement, it will likely cause other countries to reaffirm their firm commitment to the full implementation of the climate deal.</p>
<p>We are already seeing this effect in the forthcoming accord between the EU and China on climate and energy, <a href="http://brief.euractiv.com/2017/05/31/the-brief-eu-and-china-will-take-revenge-on-trump-for-ditching-climate-deal/">focused on increasing ambition in the Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>In the White House Rose Garden, US President Donald Trump <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/01/politics/trump-paris-climate-decision/index.html">said</a> he wanted to start to renegotiate to see “if there’s a better deal”. </p>
<p>“If we can, great. If we can’t, that’s fine,” he added. </p>
<h2>Lessons not learnt from the Kyoto Protocol</h2>
<p>Given the location of today’s announcement, some might be tempted to draw an analogy with the Kyoto Protocol, which President George W. Bush famously repudiated in the White House Rose Garden, following <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2005/jun/08/usnews.climatechange">pressure from fossil-fuel interests, notably Exxon</a>.</p>
<p>The lessons from this analogy do not flatter the United States. Although the Kyoto Protocol did not meet its full potential as a consequence of US non-participation, countries that engaged actively in its implementation not only succeeded in achieving the emission-reduction targets they set for themselves, but are <a href="http://www.oecd.org/env/Aligning-policies-for-the-transition-to-a-low-carbon-economy-CMIN2015-11.pdf">much better positioned</a> now to take advantage of the necessary transition to a low-carbon future.</p>
<p>As a result of the Kyoto engagement, the European Union’s legislative climate policy framework is now the most comprehensive and far-reaching in the world. The EU now has all the tools needed to deliver the <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html">greater ambition</a> that will be needed.</p>
<iframe height="600" src="https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/objectives-and-targets-of-eu/embed-dashboard?dashboard=dashboard-01&customStyle=.googlechart_view{margin-left:0px%3B}" width="100%"></iframe>
<p><em>Objectives and targets of EU environmental policies by sector and year
Source:<a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/objectives-and-targets-of-eu#tab-dashboard-01">European Environment Agency</a></em></p>
<p>Learning from the Kyoto experience, China, Korea, Mexico, Chile and other developing countries are now putting in place emissions-trading systems that will generate the cost-effective emission reductions of the future.</p>
<p>By choosing the Rose Garden for this second announcement, the Trump White House is only underscoring that the lessons from past mistakes may not have not been learnt.</p>
<h2>Ceasing implementation will halt the decline in US emissions</h2>
<p>Of immediate importance is that President Trump said the United States will cease all implementation of the non-binding Paris accord ending the implementation of the nationally determined contribution (NDC).</p>
<p><a href="http://www.climateactiontracker.org/">The Climate Action Tracker</a>, a tool that tracks the emissions commitments of countries along with their reported actions to reduce them, evaluated the consequences of the US not implementing its NDC, as Trump has done by rescinding, or attempting to rescind many of the Obama era climate policies. </p>
<p>The assessment <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_2017-05-15_Briefing_India-China-USA.pdf">shows</a> that it will lead to a halt in the necessary decline of US emissions.</p>
<p>Beyond emissions there is the issue of international finance to help countries cope with climate change. President Trump claimed that <a href="http://www.greenclimate.fund/home">the Green Climate Fund</a>, presently capitalised with US$10 billion, “is costing the United States a vast fortune.” </p>
<p>The facts say otherwise. The few billion the US has committed is far from being a vast fortune. The US so far has delivered one third of its US$3 billion pledge. The largest contributor per capita is Sweden. Other major contributors like Germany or Japan have also delivered one-third to half of their pledge by now. </p>
<p>For the record the GCF was set up to give a special focus to societies and communities most vulnerable and least capable to cope with the rising impacts of climate change - least developed countries, small island developing states and Africa. </p>
<p>The Fund has received over US$10 billion in <a href="http://www.greenclimate.fund/partners/contributors/resources-mobilized">contributions from 44 countries</a>, regions and cities, including nine developing countries who themselves are highly affected by climate change impacts already occurring in their countries.</p>
<h2>The US could be left behind</h2>
<p>The world of 2017 is a very different place from what it was in 2001. Back in 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, the US accounted for 19% of global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and 20% of the world economy (measured in GDP MER) whereas China accounted for only 12% and 7% respectively. By 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted, China had grown to become <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/03/breakthrough-us-china-agree-ratify-paris-climate-change-deal">the largest emitter</a> (23%) and the largest economy (17%), with the USA accounting for a proportionately lower share of global emissions (13%), and a smaller share of the world economy (16%).</p>
<p>India, a rising power of the 21st century, had nearly doubled its relative economic weight over this period (from 4% to 7% of the world economy). Both China and India are now seizing the future, working to bend their emissions pathways while growing their economies and creating thousands of green jobs through massive investments in renewable energy and plans to <a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2017/04/21/india-considers-100-electric-vehicles-2030/">move towards electric vehicles</a> by the end of the next decade.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171870/original/file-20170601-25658-2zupm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171870/original/file-20170601-25658-2zupm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171870/original/file-20170601-25658-2zupm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171870/original/file-20170601-25658-2zupm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171870/original/file-20170601-25658-2zupm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171870/original/file-20170601-25658-2zupm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171870/original/file-20170601-25658-2zupm9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=510&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p>Leadership and economic growth is now finding a new center of gravity – one in which the US risks being left further and further behind.</p>
<p>The scientific understanding of climate change and its effects on natural systems, human societies and economies has also progressed immensely since 1997 and engaged much larger communities including regions, cities and businesses.</p>
<p>Climate change is emerging as a geopolitical issue alongside more traditional geopolitical concerns and, depending on how a country deals with its role and the problem, its geopolitical standing is affected. <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/31/the-convenient-disappearance-of-climate-change-denial-in-china/">China has begun to move into the space, tentatively, but nevertheless with effect</a>.</p>
<p>In other words, the US is less important and less fundamental than it used to be in the sphere of climate policy action.</p>
<p>However, in some places, it may empower climate-change denialists to call for a slowdown on action, or even to support the deployment of so-called “clean coal”.</p>
<p>But, such risks appear limited at this stage. Russia, for example, has yet to ratify the Paris Agreement, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/russia-paris-agreement-climate-change-donald-trump-us-decision-global-warming-moscow-putin-a7766481.html">but has recently signalled</a> that it will continue to support the implementation of the Agreement.</p>
<p>Public opinion in many parts of the world may also be invigorated in favour of strong climate action, as a positive effect of the much-elevated attention for climate change as a global problem in the press and social media.</p>
<h2>Employment in the renewable energy industry is growing</h2>
<p>US emissions have been declining since 2015. Trump’s Executive Order aimed at rescinding US domestic measures <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa.html">will result in flatlining emissions at around present levels for the next 5 to 10 years</a>.</p>
<p>Because of the decline in renewable energy and battery-storage prices, natural gas displacing coal, as well as ongoing actions in states such as California implementing the <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_2017-05-15_Briefing_India-China-USA.pdf">Obama-era Clean Power Plan, methane controls and motor vehicle standards</a>, it seems unlikely that US emissions would increase again before 2030.</p>
<p>It is also clear that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/29/trump-promised-to-bring-back-coal-jobs-that-promise-will-not-be-kept-experts-say/">Trump’s promises to the coal-industry workforce cannot be met</a>. Coal use and mining is projected to continue declining because of changes in the energy markets, including <a href="http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/IEEFA-2017-US-Coal-Outlook-ShortTerm-Gains-Will-Be-Muted-by-Prevailing-Weaknesses-in-Fundamentals_JAN-2017.pdf">lower natural-gas prices and overwhelming competition on price from renewables</a> and storage.</p>
<p>On the other hand, employment in the renewable-energy industry is <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26052017/infographic-renewable-energy-jobs-worldwide-solar-wind-trump">growing rapidly in the United States (and around the world), and far exceeds that in coal mining</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/BUw79SKjIrS","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Jobs_Annual_Review_2017.pdf">latest review by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)</a> shows rapid growth of employment in the US renewable energy sector, now employing approximately 800,000 people.</p>
<p>The increase in employment in solar energy alone over the past three years is more than twice the total number of jobs in the coal mining industry in the United States <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26052017/infographic-renewable-energy-jobs-worldwide-solar-wind-trump">(which are declining)</a>. This remarkable development contains a lesson and a guide for the future: maintaining the growth of job opportunities requires a continued rollout and expansion of renewable energy. If this does not happen, job opportunities will be lost.</p>
<h2>A goal more difficult to meet but more unity</h2>
<p>President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, combined with the repeal of domestic actions resulting in halting the decline in US emissions, will likely make it more difficult and costly overall to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding warming well below 2°C, and limiting it to 1.5°C.</p>
<p>If sustained, the additional US emissions, above the levels that would have occurred with the full implementation of the Obama-era package of climate policies, could add an additional warming of about to 0.1 to 0.2°C by 2100. This will need to be compensated by larger and faster reductions by others than would otherwise be necessary.</p>
<p>In the longer term, the Paris Agreement temperature goals are likely not be able to be met unless the US rejoins global efforts within the next five to ten;years, so <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n9/abs/nclimate3096.html">that globally aggregated CO₂ emissions can be reduced to zero by around mid-century</a>.</p>
<p>Working against the fossil fuel–driven Trump agenda are profound market developments in renewable energy and battery storage, affecting demand for coal-fired power along with the oil demand depressing effects of the ramping up of electric vehicle production.</p>
<p>The effects of rapidly reducing prices of renewable energy technology and <a href="http://www.utilitydive.com/news/is-battery-energy-storage-at-a-turning-point-for-us-utilities/440055/">battery storage</a> are far-reaching and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/44ed7e90-3960-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec">some argue, may be unstoppable</a>. <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/438038/levelized-cost-of-energy-v100.pdf">Recent industry assessments show that the levelized cost of electricity from many renewable technologies is now lower than gas or coal in the USA</a>. <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/stunning-new-lows-in-solar-and-battery-storage-costs-13929/">Last week in Arizona, for example, solar and battery storage beat gas power on price for peaking electricity, possibly for the first time anywhere</a>. More broadly, the ongoing cancellation of planned coal-power plants in <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india.html">India</a>, <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html">China,</a> <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/japan-taiwan-korea-accelerate-demise-thermal-coal-market-97057/">Japan, South Korea, Taiwan</a> and other places is indicative of the market transformation that is beginning. </p>
<p>This dynamic of reducing renewable energy and storage technology prices driving displacement of fossil-fuel power sources will play a very large role in determining the ultimate positive or negative fallout of US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the negociations that Trump seems to want to impose. </p>
<p>In reaction to the uncertainty about US intentions, the EU and China are coming closer together on climate and energy, united around the implementation of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"870325593971273730"}"></div></p>
<p>Many more countries are also beginning to realise the great risks and costs that climate change will bring unless global warming is limited. In Marrakech, over forty-five countries belonging to the <a href="http://www.thecvf.org/">Climate Vulnerable Forum</a> committed to <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/renewable-energy-target-climate-united-nations-climate-change-vulnerable-nations-ethiopia-a7425411.html">100% renewable energy goals</a> and are beginning to work on how to achieve this.</p>
<h2>Risks and negotiations ahead</h2>
<p>Nevertheless, there will be countries, political parties, and fossil-fuel interests that will attempt to use US withdrawal to advance a climate-denialist agenda, or at the least seek ways to defend the market dominance of fossil-fuel industries.</p>
<p>It can be expected that a US withdrawal may lead a number of countries to lag in ramping up their climate pledges (NDCs or Nationally Determined Contributions) under the Paris Agreement or go slow on implementing policies.</p>
<p>Another risk that will be exacerbated by the US withdrawal relates to the large global pipeline of coal-plant proposals, which – if built and operated – would curtail any chance of holding warming well below 2°C and limiting to 1.5°C.</p>
<p>Coal is projected to grow rapidly in India, Southeast Asia, Turkey, parts of the Middle East and Africa. It will take concerted diplomatic leadership, as well as courageous domestic action to ensure that this does not come about. Such a task would be difficult even with the US in the Agreement, but a US withdrawal has made it a little harder.</p>
<p>One of the questions now is to know if the US president can find a way to engage any new negotiations. </p>
<p>The longer the US remains idle the harder it will be for all of us. So what are the prospects of the US rejoining the agreement?</p>
<p>Looking beyond the next 3 to 4 years, rising levels of public concern and anxiety over climate change, the accelerating employment from the renewable-energy industry give grounds for optimism. </p>
<p>If Trump doesn’t come back to the Agreement, we will have to wait 2020 to see what happens. A new president coud seek to reenter the climate deal quickly to catch up with the market leaders, likely <a href="http://brief.euractiv.com/2017/05/31/the-brief-eu-and-china-will-take-revenge-on-trump-for-ditching-climate-deal/">China, the EU</a> and India, and to recover its <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/trump-paris-end-of-the-american-century-ec5ee0742f8a">political</a>, technological and economic leadership that will be squandered by the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>With this outlook in mind and with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/23/us/california-engages-world-and-fights-washington-on-climate-change.html">California taking a strong lead</a>, many states, municipalities, companies and civic society are expected to move ahead with climate action over the next few years, and if successful the US may well be in a position to catch up quickly once the Trump period passes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare is a Director of Climate Analytics, a nonprofit climate science and policy institute. Climate Analytics receives research and project funding from philanthropies, governments and international organisations on climate science, impacts and policy. Sources of funding include the German Government’s (BMUB) International Climate Initiative, Climate Works Foundation, the European Climate Foundation, European Commission Research funds, the UK Government's Climate Development Knowledge Network. Bill Hare is directing the IMPACT Project, which provides scientific, policy, analytical and strategic support, capacity building and advice for delegations from small island states and least developed countries in international climate negotiations.</span></em></p>Like president George W. Bush before him, Donald Trump made the announcement from the White House Rose Garden, showing that Republican governments have failed to learn past lessons.Bill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics, Berlin; Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University, Perth; Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/734472017-02-27T19:09:48Z2017-02-27T19:09:48ZSevere heatwaves show the need to adapt livestock management for climate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158465/original/image-20170227-27378-u8yry6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cows don't do well in the heat.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Climate change and extreme weather events are already impacting our food, from meat and vegetables, right through to wine. In our series on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/climate-and-food-36311">Climate and Food</a>, we’re looking at what this means for the food chain.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>During the recent heatwave in New South Wales, which saw <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/red-hot-nsw-smashes-february-statewide-heat-records-two-days-in-a-row-20170212-gub14c.html">record-breaking temperatures</a> for two days in a row, 40 dairy cows <a href="http://www.theland.com.au/story/4474219/shoalhaven-dairy-cattle-deaths-this-was-the-perfect-storm/?cs=4941">died in Shoalhaven</a>, a city just south of Sydney. </p>
<p>Climate change <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-doubled-the-likelihood-of-the-new-south-wales-heatwave-72871">doubled the likelihood</a> of this kind of record-breaking heatwave. And even the higher minimum temperatures we’ve recently experienced may soon be the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/2015s-record-breaking-temperatures-will-be-normal-by-2030-its-time-to-adapt-68224">new normal</a>” for this time of the year. </p>
<p>Farmers that <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-15/dairy-farmers-forced-to-sell-up-in-face-of-plunging-milk-prices/7730638">already find it difficult</a> to make a profit will need to adapt to these changing conditions, ensuring they mitigate the effects on their livestock. This could take the form of more shade and shelter, but also the selection of different breeds to suit the conditions.</p>
<h2>What’s happening?</h2>
<p>Cattle are <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/cp/CP11169">vulnerable</a> to changes in rainfall patterns (variability and extremes), temperature (average and extremes), humidity, and evaporation. These climactic changes can affect livestock directly, and also indirectly through <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/CP09019">pasture growth</a>, forage crop quantity and quality, the production and price of feed-grain as well as spatial changes in disease and pest distribution.</p>
<p>The greatest risks stem from extreme events such as heatwaves and droughts, as they are less predictable and much more difficult to adapt to than gradual changes.</p>
<p>Dairy cows are particularly affected by heatwaves, which can not only reduce milk production, but, as the NSW heatwave illustrated, cause illness or death. Further, the effects on milk production and the protein content of the milk can <a href="http://www.coolcows.com.au/heat-wave-recovery.htm">last for several weeks</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158478/original/image-20170227-27411-aatk61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158478/original/image-20170227-27411-aatk61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158478/original/image-20170227-27411-aatk61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158478/original/image-20170227-27411-aatk61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158478/original/image-20170227-27411-aatk61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158478/original/image-20170227-27411-aatk61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158478/original/image-20170227-27411-aatk61.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Milk production from a commercial dairy herd in west Gippsland dropped for several weeks after days of severe heat stress.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Eckard</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>Similar to humans, instances of high relative air humidity and little wind worsen the negative effects of high temperatures on livestock. When this occurs, the animals cannot easily offload excess heat through transpiration. This is compounded when there is little or no cloud cover, as the cattle are exposed to more solar radiation.</p>
<p>Milk production is <a href="http://www.uesc.br/cursos/pos_graduacao/mestrado/animal/bibliografia2009/hs_west_2009.pdf">also impacted by night-time temperatures</a> and the timing of the heatwave. When night-time temperatures are high, cows cannot offload excess heat. If a heatwave occurs after the cows’ peak of lactation, milk production is less likely to recover and the impact is even worse.</p>
<p>The response of cattle to heat stress also depends on the breed. This <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/an/EA9940285">can differ</a> as a result of, among other things, differences in metabolic rate, sweating rate, coat texture and colour. Researchers have even <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080825201255.htm">identified</a> a “slick hair gene”, responsible for producing cattle with shorter, slicker hair that reduces their vulnerability to direct radiative heat. The full benefits of the slick gene still require more research as a strategy for animals to cope in future climates. </p>
<p>Sheep are generally less affected by high temperatures than dairy cows. However, heatwaves with temperatures beyond 40°C can cause heat stress. Hot days may have short-term impacts on rams’ fertility, and recently shorn sheep are at risk of sunburn if they are exposed to direct sunlight.</p>
<p>Factors that are unique to each individual animal, such as previous heat exposure and overall health and age, also play a role in how vulnerable they are to heat.</p>
<h2>Mitigation</h2>
<p>In the short run, farmers can mitigate the worst of these issues by providing high-quality water and shade (such as from trees, buildings, and shade cloth) in the heat, warm shelter in the cold, and by adjusting feed. During heatwaves, farmers can also adjust milking procedures and milk their cows very early in the morning or late at night. To provide immediate cooling they can also use sprinklers or misting systems. But care is needed to avoid simply increasing humidity around the animals.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158460/original/image-20170227-23038-yfkb9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158460/original/image-20170227-23038-yfkb9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158460/original/image-20170227-23038-yfkb9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158460/original/image-20170227-23038-yfkb9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158460/original/image-20170227-23038-yfkb9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158460/original/image-20170227-23038-yfkb9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158460/original/image-20170227-23038-yfkb9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Mitigation can be as simple as providing a bit of shade.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p>A more long-term option is to selectively choose breeds that are better adapted to higher temperatures (such as breeds with lighter coat colour or <em><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/EA9940285">Bos indicus</a></em> types or crosses). Unfortunately, breeds adapted to warmer climates, such as the <a href="http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/animals-and-livestock/beef-cattle/breeding/beef-cattle-breeds/brahman">Brahman</a>, tend not to be high milk producers or to do as well in <a href="https://www.mla.com.au/research-and-development/feeding-finishing-nutrition/Lotfeeding-intensive-finishing/">feedlots</a> as the traditional British beef breeds, so there will be a hit to productivity. </p>
<p>As the impact of climate change isn’t solely on the animals themselves, farmers will also have to adjust their work patterns and other aspects of their operations. To cope with heat, farmers themselves may need to consider working more during the cooler hours of the day. Farming both crops and livestock together can also provide a buffer against the impact of an extreme event. The combined production of wheat and wool is a <a href="https://www.mla.com.au/globalassets/mla-corporate/blocks/research-and-development/wa-climate-change-and-commodities.pdf">typical example</a> of spreading of risk on farm.</p>
<p>But for these strategies to really be effective, farmers need more information.</p>
<p>This includes accurate and timely forecasts of weather (temperature, rainfall, solar radiation) and heat (such as the temperature humidity index, <a href="http://www.coolcows.com.au/go-on-alert/thi.htm">THI</a>) at daily, weekly and seasonal scales. Armed with this data, farmers and livestock managers can effectively plan and implement protection measures ahead of time. </p>
<p>A wide range of agricultural, climate and weather services exist. For example, the Bureau of Meteorology weather <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/">forecasts</a>, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/?ref=ftr">seasonal outlooks</a> of rainfall and temperature, and the current <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/">water balance and soil moisture information</a>. There’s also the <a href="http://www.coolcows.com.au/">the Cool Cows website</a>, the <a href="http://dairy.katestone.com.au/">Dairy Forecast Service</a> and the <a href="http://chlt.katestone.com.au/">Cattle heat load toolbox</a>.</p>
<p>We also need more research into improving our understanding of the climate system, to develop risk management plans for industries by regions, and more accurate and reliable forecasts, so that farmers and livestock managers can make management decisions and ensure the wellbeing of themselves and their animals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73447/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elisabeth Vogel receives an Australian Postgraduate Award for her PhD studies. She is affiliated with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christin Meyer receives a scholarship from Süedwolle GmbH for her thesis and is enrolled as PhD student at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Eckard receives funding from GRDC, Dairy Australia, Emissions Reduction Alberta, Agriculture Victoria and the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources. </span></em></p>As the climate changes and extreme weather effects become more common, cattle and other livestock are becoming more stressed.Elisabeth Vogel, PhD Student, The University of MelbourneChristin Meyer, PhD student, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchRichard Eckard, Professor & Director, Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/691582016-11-23T07:19:11Z2016-11-23T07:19:11ZWe can limit global warming to 1.5°C if we do these things in the next ten years<p>After the climate talks in Marrakech, our climate mission remains the same as what was set out in the 2015 <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreeement</a>: to eliminate all carbon dioxide emissions by the middle of this century.</p>
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<p>While the long-term focus is on 2050 or 2100, what matters now is the next ten years. If we miss bending the rising emissions curve downward by around 2020, we may well miss the chance to avoid the worst climate damage.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146982/original/image-20161122-21724-1qxkmy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146982/original/image-20161122-21724-1qxkmy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/146982/original/image-20161122-21724-1qxkmy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146982/original/image-20161122-21724-1qxkmy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146982/original/image-20161122-21724-1qxkmy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146982/original/image-20161122-21724-1qxkmy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146982/original/image-20161122-21724-1qxkmy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/146982/original/image-20161122-21724-1qxkmy1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Action Tracker.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>We looked at all the major emitting sectors and the most recent scientific analyses of what can be done – and how fast – to come up with a <a href="http://climateactiontracker.org/news/268/The-ten-most-important-short-term-steps-to-limit-warming-to-1.5C.html">list of the most important things</a> to do in the next five to ten years to bend the emissions curve downwards. </p>
<p>Here’s the good news: for all areas, we show signs that a transition of this magnitude is possible. In many cases, it’s already happening. </p>
<h2>Phasing out coal</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7430/full/nature11787.html">scientific literature</a> <a href="http://www.iea.org/etp/etp2016/">shows</a> that decarbonising the electric power sector is the most important, fastest and cheapest step, reinforced by rapid <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-19/solar-sells-in-chile-for-cheapest-ever-at-half-the-price-of-coal">reductions in the price of renewable technologies</a> such as wind and solar power.</p>
<p>The most important thing to know about the feasibility of reducing CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from the power sector to zero by 2050 is this: if we continue the growth rate of wind and solar we’ve seen in the past few years for the next decade globally, we will be well on the way to achieving this goal.</p>
<p>That means we will need to phase out coal. We need to reduce emissions from existing power stations – but that is <a href="http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm">already happening</a> – and we will need to cancel any new coal capacity in the world.</p>
<p>We know that renewables, energy efficiency and, in a number of cases, natural gas, can meet <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7430/full/nature11787.html">foreseen power needs</a>, while lifting <a href="http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=496">millions of people out of poverty</a>. Reducing coal emissions from power will have substantial benefits for human health: more than half the pollutants that cause damage to human lives, ecosystems and agriculture comes <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2016-special-report-energy-and-air-pollution.html">from fossil fuels</a>.</p>
<p>A number of governments have already committed to doing this: we’ve seen <a href="http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm">China’s emissions peak in 2013</a> and continue to drop. The UK has promised to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/09/britains-last-coal-power-plants-to-close-by-2025">phase out coal by 2025</a>; and we’ve seen regions in other countries, such South Australia, <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/last-coal-fired-power-generator-in-south-australia-switched-off-88308/">close their last coal plants</a>.</p>
<p>All this takes is political will and effort, and a just transition for workers that enables communities to move from coal to alternative means of employment and energy production.</p>
<h2>Electric cars</h2>
<p>We also need to electrify the transport system, starting with cars. </p>
<p>In the early 1900s, Henry Ford <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/timeline/henryford/">took cars into mass production</a>. A century later, we’re on the brink of the next major transition towards electric vehicles, pioneered by manufacturers such as Elon Musk’s Tesla and making a major contribution to <a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-s-p100d-has-the-longest-range-of-any-zero-emissions-car/">reducing emissions from transport</a>.</p>
<p>Just before the Marrakech climate talks, China, which has the world’s <a href="https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/Global_EV_Outlook_2016.pdf">biggest and fastest growing market in quantitative terms</a>, announced it would introduce quotas for electric vehicles. This was a shock for <a href="http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/11/01/german-vice-chancellor-attacks-chinas-electric-car-targets/">German</a> and other European car manufacturers, who anticipated their future as being based on old fossil fuel technologies.</p>
<p>One can only hope that these manufacturers will now rush into electric mobility. We calculate that the last fossil fuel car has to be sold before 2035 to be in line with holding warming to 1.5°C.</p>
<p>Aviation and shipping remain of great concern, and we find efforts by the industry, including technology standards and emissions <a href="http://www.icao.int/Newsroom/Pages/Historic-agreement-reached-to-mitigate-international-aviation-emissions.aspx">offset schemes</a> for any extra emissions after 2020, don’t have the teeth to really make a difference in this sector. There’s also a risk that these measures could obscure the need for much deeper and further-reaching changes.</p>
<h2>Zero energy building</h2>
<p>Another huge sector is buildings. It’s very important that new buildings move towards near-zero energy by 2020. New buildings can be built in a way that produces <a href="http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/09/f26/bto_common_definition_zero_energy_buildings_093015.pdf">net zero energy</a>. The upfront investments are recovered by the zero energy costs during operation.</p>
<p>Given the <a href="https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/capital-projects-infrastructure/publications/cpi-outlook/assets/cpi-outlook-to-2025.pdf">rapid growth of infrastructure in much of the Global South</a>, as well as ongoing replacement of old buildings in the developed world, efforts toward ensuring zero-energy buildings become the global standard for new construction need to be accelerated. This will already be the case <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-efficiency/buildings/nearly-zero-energy-buildings">in the EU from 2020</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, we still need to do a lot with existing buildings, one of the most difficult areas for governments to tackle. We know that clean energy renovation is highly beneficial not only to occupants and the environment <a href="https://www.sitra.fi/julkaisut/Selvityksi%C3%A4-sarja/Selvityksia105.pdf">but also to the economy</a>. Renovation rates need to be at least tripled. These measures need to move beyond being voluntary and underfunded to being backed by regulation and proper financial support.</p>
<h2>Forests and agriculture</h2>
<p>Deforestation remains a serious issue in many countries, causing large-scale <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/haze-indonesia-forest-fires-killed-100000-people-harvard-study">air pollution</a>, loss of <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v535/n7610/full/nature18326.html#ref4">biodiversity</a>, and affecting the livelihoods of local people. We know however, that reducing emissions to 95% below recent levels by 2030 will have large sustainable development benefits.</p>
<p>The other areas we have to look at are the industrial sector and agriculture, but again, we find there are solutions and steps that these sectors can take. The industrial sector needs to move to state-of-the-art low-carbon technologies for all new plants as of 2020 and agriculture needs to apply current best practices. </p>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Analytics</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Removing carbon from the atmosphere</h2>
<p>There has been so little climate action since the world first started talking about emission reductions in 1992, when the <a href="https://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php">UN climate convention was adopted</a>, that we have <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7609/abs/nature18307.html">nearly used up the carbon budget available</a> to limit warming to 1.5°C.</p>
<p>As a consequence, technology that removes CO<sub>2</sub> from the atmosphere will need to be deployed 30 years from now, to hold warming below 2°C, let alone <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n9/abs/nclimate3096.html">limit warming to 1.5°C</a>.</p>
<p>It’s important to realise that even if we reduce emissions to zero ten years before the most advanced models indicate (around 2035), we will still need to deploy <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-10-ways-negative-emissions-could-slow-climate-change">negative emission technologies</a> at scale.</p>
<p>That means that if we are successful and throw everything at the problem, plus the proverbial kitchen sink, we still need to be preparing to deploy negative emissions technologies from the 2040s onward. About the only good news from this is that we have time to research this, test it and work out the most sustainable way of doing it.</p>
<p>Phasing out greenhouse gas emissions entirely by mid-century is possible, and promising trends are emerging. But the next five to ten years will be the real test of whether we can make that happen.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69158/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare works for and owns shares in Climate Analytics, a non profit science based institute with headquarters in Berlin. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics have received research grants, Foundation and German Government International Climate Initiative funding for research and activities related to this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Niklas Höhne receives funding from Foundations such as the Children Investment Fund Foundation, ClimateWorks Foundation, European Climate Foundation, Mercator Foundation, the German, Dutch, Swedish and Norwegian government and the European Commission. He is affiliated with Wageningen University as Special Professor and NewClimate Institute as Founding Partner. </span></em></p>Phasing out greenhouse gas emissions entirely by mid-century is possible, and promising trends are emerging. But the next five to ten years will be the real test of whether we can make that happen.Bill Hare, Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchNiklas Höhne, Professor of Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases, Wageningen UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/681242016-11-03T19:07:25Z2016-11-03T19:07:25ZParis climate agreement enters into force: international experts respond<p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Paris climate agreement</a>, first struck in December 2015, enters into force today. The treaty commits countries worldwide to keep carbon emissions “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.</p>
<p>Countries will pursue self-determined emissions targets, agreed upon before the last round of climate talks, from 2020 onwards. The national targets will be reviewed and strengthened every five years.</p>
<p>The agreement also commits richer countries to provide funding to poorer countries, which have done the least to contribute to climate change but will suffer its worst effects.</p>
<p>As the world embarks on its most dedicated effort yet to prevent catastrophic climate change, The Conversation asked a panel of international experts to give their view on the significance of the agreement coming into force.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Bill Hare: ‘A historic turning point’</h2>
<p>For better or worse, the entry into force of the Paris Agreement is a historic turning point, humanity’s most organised response to date to the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/publication/turn-down-the-heat">largest and most far-reaching challenge</a> to the habitability of the planet and viability of its life: human-induced climate change. </p>
<p>To me, this agreement represents our last best chance to come together and <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n6/full/nclimate2572.html">take the essential steps</a> to prevent the worst consequences of climate change.</p>
<p>Over the next five to ten years, if we succeed in bending the present upward curve of emissions and ramping up climate action – meaning that by 2025 emissions are well and truly on a downward trajectory – then we will be able say the agreement is working. </p>
<p>In this timeframe CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from coal would <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/files/1p5_australia_report_ci.pdf">need to drop at least 25% below recent levels</a>. We would also need to see a whole range actions towards a sustainable, fully renewable, zero-carbon future by 2050. Such an outcome is <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-to-be-cheerful-about-limiting-global-warming-to-1-5-degrees-62125">not beyond what can be imagined</a>, as the necessary measures bring many benefits, and the technologies to get there are getting cheaper every month.</p>
<p>Make no mistake – we would still be confronting major climate challenges <a href="http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/7/327/2016/esd-7-327-2016-discussion.html">even if we limit global average warming to 1.5°C</a>. But without that action our challenges would be immeasurably worse.</p>
<p>Should we not succeed, and emissions continue to increase, the Paris Agreement could come to symbolise all that is wrong with the world, and with the present world order. Such an outcome would be associated with other large-scale societal problems, such as rapidly increasing economic inequity, as well as access to political power and decision-making. Unchecked climate change would exacerbate many of these issues, including the increasing likelihood of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-could-affect-african-migration-patterns-60466">climate-induced migration</a>.</p>
<p>Scientists and policy makers are mobilising now to help in the next great stage of implementing the Paris Agreement, which is to increase the level of ambition and action. An <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">IPCC Special Report is being organised for 2018</a> to assess impact, mitigation, and sustainable development issues surrounding the 1.5°C temperature limit. </p>
<p><a href="http://climateanalytics.org/blog/2016/the-ipccs-1-5c-special-report.html">This report will provide vital</a> input to the <a href="https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/files/documents/Paris_Agreement_Review_Discussion_Brief_170516.pdf">2018 facilitative dialogue</a>, organised by the UN’s climate change organisation, which is meant to examine how countries’ global aggregate level of action stacks up against the required emission pathways in 2025 and 2030. The results of this dialogue will provide guidance to countries as they prepare to submit their updated, and hopefully upgraded, nationally determine contributions by 2020.</p>
<h2>Julia Jones: ‘Forest people cannot bear the costs’</h2>
<p>The loss of tropical forests contributes as much as <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/stop-deforestation/deforestation-global-warming-carbon-emissions.html#.WBnyaHrl8YQ">10% to global emissions of greenhouse gases</a>. For this reason (and because protecting rainforests has other potential benefits), a UN-negotiated mechanism on <a href="http://www.un-redd.org/">Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation</a>, known as REDD+, is widely promoted as an important pillar in efforts to tackle climate change. </p>
<p>Since the idea that tropical forest nations should be funded to slow deforestation was initially proposed in 2005, <a href="http://www.cifor.org/redd-case-book/">many initiatives</a> have sprung up to explore how REDD+ can work in practice. These pilot schemes show that while well-designed projects can deliver <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901110001334">emissions reductions</a>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12500/abstract">conserve biodiversity</a> and <a href="http://www.tnrf.org/files/e-REDD%20Realities.pdf">improve local livelihoods</a>, positive outcomes are <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801630005X">far from guaranteed</a>. A number of groups advocating for the rights of people who live in forests <a href="https://www.iucn.org/content/global-alliance-indigenous-peoples-and-local-communities-against-redd">strongly oppose REDD+</a>, as they believe that it will result in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/jul/03/world-bank-un-redd-genocide-land-carbon-grab-sengwer-kenya">evictions</a>.</p>
<p>As of today, efforts to slow climate change by saving rainforests are enshrined in international law via the Paris Agreement. What will this actually mean for tropical forests and its people? Resources available for conservation will increase, which is certainly positive. </p>
<p>However for millions of people, mostly very poor and politically marginalised, these forests are home and the source of their livelihoods. Their needs, views, and knowledge must be taken into account in any conservation actions. It cannot be fair that forest people bear the costs of mitigating climate change.</p>
<h2>Luke Kemp: Watch out for Donald Trump</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement’s entry into force is both impressive and troubling. It could be a sign of renewed international momentum. But its speed is more likely indicative of a lack of substance.</p>
<p>Ratification means few legal obligations for participating countries. Paris entering into force has more symbolic than legal strength. </p>
<p>What does entry into force mean for those nations that have not joined, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-holding-russia-back-from-ratifying-the-paris-climate-agreement-64842">Russia</a>? Not a great deal for now. Arguably, they should be excluded from having a voice and a vote in initial negotiations over the finer details of the agreement’s implementation. </p>
<p>In practice, diplomats are eager to ensure that Paris <a href="http://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/Encouraging-Increased-Climate-Action-by-Non-Party-Stakeholders.pdf">remains a truly global effort</a>, and have created a technical workaround so that even countries that are yet to ratify can participate in discussions. The (perhaps naïve) assumption is that eventually all parties will join.</p>
<p>In the longer term a lack of ratification is likely to lead to exclusion from discussion under the Paris negotiations, as well as an inability to use elements such as market-based mechanisms under the agreement. Non-ratifying countries will probably also become international pariahs.</p>
<p>However aside from social pressure, the Paris Agreement is extremely weak against countries who choose not to join, or <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2016.1176007?journalCode=tcpo20">opt to withdraw</a>. It contains no “non-party” measures to entice participation or punish non-ratifying countries. Such an arrangement looks fine for now, but it could become a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36401174">fatal flaw</a> if Donald Trump takes power in the US on November 8. </p>
<p>Paris was designed to be a universal agreement that appeals to the United States, trading away strong substance in favour of quick approval and universal participation. A rogue superpower could mark the end of the honeymoon.</p>
<h2>Meraz Mostafa: ‘New approach to climate policy’</h2>
<p>With the activation of the Paris Agreement, the issue of loss and damage becomes a central tenet of international climate governance. The UN climate body is now committed to address the impacts of climate change that go beyond adaptation. These include everything from <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/gallery/2016/feb/15/pacific-islands-sinking-states-climate-change">islands sinking in the Pacific Ocean</a> to infrastructure damage during cyclones.</p>
<p>This is somewhat surprising given how contentious the issue of loss and damage has been at climate talks. Arguably, the first reference to the concept was <a href="http://www.icccad.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Loss-and-damage.pdf">proposed in 1991</a> by Vanuatu, whose negotiators unsuccessfully argued for an international risk insurance pool to deal with the adverse affects of climate change. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=742&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/144392/original/image-20161103-25362-1iuyvqt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=932&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vanuatu has been advocating for loss and damage since 1991.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it took until 2014 for the UN climate body to establish a separate mechanism, called the <a href="http://unfccc.int/adaptation/workstreams/loss_and_damage/items/8134.php">Warsaw International Mechanism</a>. This mechanism consists of nine action areas ranging from how best to finance loss and damage to how to deal with the impacts of climate change not easily valued in the market (the loss of home, tradition, culture and so on).</p>
<p>Even with this in place before the Paris negotiations last year, several developed countries, <a href="https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2016/01/loss-damage-fared-paris-agreement/">including the US</a>, were uneasy about including loss and damage in the agreement. This is because they were worried this issue would quickly bring up the question of whether developed countries could be held liable and have to compensate for their share of greenhouse gas emissions. A comprise was reached in negotiations where a separate article in the agreement was dedicated to loss and damage, but the notion of compensation and liability were explicitly ruled out.</p>
<p>The article on loss and damage in the Paris Agreement mainly focuses on supporting the Warsaw mechanism. The next round of climate talks in Marrakesh will be important, because it is when the negotiators are expected to come to a decision on a five-year rolling working plan for the mechanism.</p>
<p>This plan is yet to be determined, based on the last meeting of the <a href="http://unfccc.int/adaptation/groups_committees/loss_and_damage_executive_committee/items/7543.php">executive committee of the Warsaw mechanism</a> (made up of an equal number of representatives from developed and developing countries). In particular, separate task-forces will be created to address issues such as migration and non-economic loss and damage. An information hub for comprehensive risk management (that is, <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/microinsurance-and-new-market-climate-equity">microinsurance</a>) will also be established.</p>
<p>The Paris Agreement is significant, because it establishes a new approach to climate policy, whereby climate change-related loss and damage will have to be addressed alongside mitigation and adaptation.</p>
<h2>Stefan Rahmstorf: Governments should be in emergency mode</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement is the best we could have expected at this point in history. It is a beacon of hope. Almost all nations on Earth have decided to move towards net zero emissions.</p>
<p>It was high time, and in some respects too late. Paris came <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/climate-change-action-paris-summit-by-stefan-rahmstorf-2015-11">almost exactly 50 years</a> after the famous <a href="http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/Caldeira%20downloads/PSAC,%201965,%20Restoring%20the%20Quality%20of%20Our%20Environment.pdf">Revelle report</a> from the US president’s scientific advisory panel issued a stark warning of global warming, melting ice caps and rising seas due to our carbon dioxide emissions. </p>
<p>The long delay in confronting this threat is not least a result of a major, still ongoing obfuscation campaign by fossil fuel interests.</p>
<p>The goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C, or better 1.5°C, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n7/full/nclimate3013.html">is necessary</a>. Two degrees of global warming is very likely to spell <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n2/full/nclimate1674.html">the end of most coral reefs</a> on Earth. Two degrees would mean a <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/11/average-us-family-destroys-football-fields-worth-arctic-sea-ice-every-30-years">largely ice-free Arctic ocean</a> in summer, right up to the North Pole. </p>
<p>Two degrees would be very likely to destabilise the West Antarctic ice sheet (evidence is mounting that <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/112/46/14191.abstract">this has already happened</a>). Such an increase might even destabilise the <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1449.html">Greenland ice sheet</a> and parts of the <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n6/full/nclimate2226.html">East Antarctic ice sheet</a>, locking in more than ten metres of sea-level rise and sealing the fate of coastal cities and island nations.</p>
<p>Some major impacts of our fossil fuel burning cannot be prevented now, thanks to the fateful delays already mentioned. But every 0.1°C of warming we avoid helps contain further massive risks to humanity, including major threats to food security.</p>
<p>Because of all the time that was lost, the remaining emissions budget is very tight: at current rate, we are <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-only-five-years-left-before-one-point-five-c-budget-is-blown">eating up the budget</a> to stay below 1.5°C (with a 50:50 chance) in about ten years. The budget for 2°C would allow us to keep emitting for about <a href="http://www.wri.org/ipcc-infographics">30 years</a>. If we ramp down emissions rapidly we can stretch these budgets out to last longer, but the key here is to turn the tide of emissions now or we can give up on staying well below 2°C. </p>
<p>If we take the Paris Agreement seriously (and we should), governments around the world should be in <a href="http://theconversation.com/februarys-global-temperature-spike-is-a-wake-up-call-56341">emergency mode</a>, taking rapid and decisive measures to get their emissions down.</p>
<h2>Pep Canadell: Little time for celebration</h2>
<p>By all accounts, the Paris Agreement is an astonishing achievement. However, we should spend little time in celebrating its coming into effect and move swiftly from the broader well-intended rhetoric to specific actions. The <a href="http://www.cop22-morocco.com/">next round of climate negotiations</a>, beginning in Marrakesh on November 7 will be the first real test to assess how committed countries are to the goals of the Paris Agreement.</p>
<p>Each individual country needs to show how they will specifically implement the very vague <a href="http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php">National Determined Commitments</a>, and equally important, how they are planning to go beyond those initial commitments, now that we know that the collective effort falls well short of what is required to stay below 2°C.</p>
<h2>Harald Winkler: ‘Implementation of adaptation and mitigation needed’</h2>
<p>The Paris Agreement has entered into force. The global significance is the political momentum for climate action continues. From a southern African perspective, the implications for adaptation are at least as important as mitigation – and both will need support. The focus must shift to implementation at the local level.</p>
<p>For Africa, the Paris Agreement gives much greater political visibility to adaptation. <a href="https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf">Article 7</a> includes a global goal for adaptation. But also a review to ensure that the adaptation response is adequate. The adaptation goal links the temperature goal – to be held below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels - with adequacy. </p>
<p>The greater the increase, the worse any negative impact will be, particularly for African countries with low adaptive capacity. International practice on adaptation needs enhancement, this can build on existing <a href="http://www.csir.co.za/nre/docs/INDC_Technical_Report.pdf">methodological work</a>, particularly on information for the adaptation component of Nationally Determined Contributions or other forms of communication. </p>
<p>To take effective adaptation action locally, the <a href="http://web.unep.org/adaptationgapreport/sites/unep.org.adaptationgapreport/files/documents/agr2016.pdf">adaptation finance gap</a> must be addressed.</p>
<p>Certainly all countries will have to do more on mitigation. The literature is clear that the sum of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions “<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7609/full/nature18307.html">still imply</a> a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100”. This is often simplified to mean more mitigation, but in many southern African countries, this will mean “avoided emissions”. The challenge is to follow development pathways – to meet basic developmental needs – without going to high emissions in the first place. Avoiding a high-emissions development pathway is a big ask of African countries.</p>
<p>Support is essential to shift to both low carbon and climate-resilient development pathways.</p>
<p>The strength of the Paris Agreement lies in its comprehensive scope that includes finance, technology and capacity building. The success of local action on adaptation and mitigation depends on implementing these provisions. For the first time in global climate governance, developed countries have agreed to communicate indicative support to developing countries every two years ex ante. Access to environmentally sound technology and capacity building will be important to achieve the necessary transitions. Continuous support for the <a href="https://www.thegef.org/topics/capacity-building-initiative-transparency-cbit">Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency</a> is a crucial aspect of transparency; and transparency related capacity.</p>
<p>Finally, local action is needed – and, globally, a multi-lateral rules-based regime, which is what the world set out to achieve in Durban and agreed in Paris. Fully developing the Paris “rule book” is a key task at the international level. But we dare not wait – each country and all its people need to start to prepare for the impacts, avoid emissions and where emissions are high, reduce them very rapidly indeed.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/68124/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare works for and owns shares in Climate Analytics, a non profit science based institute with headquarters in Berlin. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics have received research grants, Foundation and German Government International Climate Initiative funding for research and activities related to this article.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harald Winkler has been a member of the South African delegation to the climate negotiations under the UNFCCC from 2003 to 2015. His UCT research centre has in the past received funding from the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) for analytical support. This article is written in his personal capacity, does not represent the views of ERC, UCT or DEA and no benefit will accrue to any organisation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Jones is principal investigator of the p4ges.org project (Can payments for ecosystem services reduce poverty?) which is funded by the UK government’s Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation programme (<a href="http://www.espa.ac.uk">www.espa.ac.uk</a>).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Kemp has received funding from the Australian and German governments.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian Climate Change Science Program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Meraz Mostafa and Stefan Rahmstorf do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Experts agree that a new era for climate policy here. But the hard work starts now.Bill Hare, Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchHarald Winkler, Professor and Director of the Energy Research Centre, University of Cape TownJulia P G Jones, Professor of Conservation Science, Bangor UniversityLuke Kemp, Lecturer in International Relations and Environmental Policy, Australian National UniversityMeraz Mostafa, Research officer, International Centre for Climate Change & Development, Independent University, BangladeshPep Canadell, CSIRO Scientist, and Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project, CSIROStefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/634002016-08-04T03:38:35Z2016-08-04T03:38:35ZFactCheck Q&A: as the climate changes, are 750 million refugees predicted to move away from flooding?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132910/original/image-20160803-12220-q017hx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How does Peter Singer's figure of 750 million fit within the range of estimates on 'climate change refugees'?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Q&A</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The Conversation is fact-checking claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9.35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a> or by <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>.</strong></p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, August 2, 2016, watch from 1.12.</span></figcaption>
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<blockquote>
<p>PETER SINGER: That is going to basically inundate every coastal city around the world, including, of course, all Australian major cities are coastal. It is going - estimated to cause something like 750 million refugees just moving away from that flooding. Never mind those who also because refugees because (indistinct)… </p>
<p>VIRGINIA TRIOLI: Some of those claims are contested, of course? </p>
<p>PETER SINGER: Well, they are contested but do you want to take the chance, right? <strong>– Peter Singer, Ira W. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics, Princeton University, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s4490007.htm">speaking</a> on Q&A with host Virginia Trioli, August 2, 2016.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Ethicist Peter Singer told Q&A that climate change-related sea level rises are “estimated to cause something like 750 million refugees just moving away from that flooding”.</p>
<p>It is beyond the scope of a FactCheck to say with any certainty what will happen in the future. And there is no single official data source on the numbers of people who migrate because of the impacts of climate change, partly because there is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/06/the-limits-of-refugee-law/">no legal definition</a> of a “<a href="http://www.kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/FNI-R0116.pdf">climate change refugee</a>”. Furthermore, most such displacement occurs within countries, not across international borders, and is always due to a number of different factors. Finally, there is no <a href="https://nanseninitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/PROTECTION-AGENDA-VOLUME-1.pdf">systematic monitoring</a> of such movement.</p>
<p>That said, we can check how Singer’s figure of 750 million fits within the range of estimates that exist on this question. </p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>When asked by The Conversation for sources to support his statement, Peter Singer said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Factchecking always welcome! My source for the figure is <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/global-mapping-choices">Climate Central</a> and in terms of the possible extent of sea level rises, please see <a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf">this paper</a> by Hansen et al. </p>
<p>The figure I gave is near the top end of the Climate Central range, but remember that I agreed with Virginia Trioli that this is contested. I argued that if it is even a small chance, the stakes are too high to be worth taking the risk.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/">Climate Central</a> is a group of scientists and journalists researching and reporting climate change and its effects. In 2015, the group <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/global-mapping-choices">said</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Carbon emissions causing 4°C of warming — what business-as-usual points toward today — could lock in enough sea level rise to submerge land currently home to 470 to 760 million people, with unstoppable rise unfolding over centuries. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Predictions vary and uncertainties abound, but climate scientists say it is possible <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-you-ready-for-a-four-degree-world-2452">we may reach 4°C of warming by 2100</a> if insufficient effort is made to reign in emissions. </p>
<p>As Singer acknowledges, his figure of 750 million is at the upper end of estimates – and he readily agreed that estimates are contested. </p>
<p>Without detracting from Singer’s broader point about the human consequences of climate change, it is worth taking a closer look at the context, assumptions and methodologies behind some of these alarming-sounding figures.</p>
<h2>What does Singer’s source say about climate refugees?</h2>
<p>When Climate Central released its <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/uploads/research/Global-Mapping-Choices-Report.pdf">Mapping Choices report</a> in 2015, the headline it used on its website was <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/global-mapping-choices">“New Report and Maps: Rising Seas Threaten Land Home to Half a Billion”</a>.</p>
<p>But to be clear, Climate Central’s <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/uploads/research/Global-Mapping-Choices-Report.pdf">full report</a> did not say that 750 million people would need to move away due to rising sea levels – in fact, unlike Singer, it didn’t use the term “refugees” at all.</p>
<p>Instead, it said only that under a 4°C warming scenario, there could be “enough sea level rise to <em>submerge land</em> currently home to 470 to 760 million people” (emphasis added).</p>
<p>Many people would indeed move in that scenario – but <a href="http://www.migrationdrc.org/publications/resource_guides/Migration_and_Climate_Change/Improving_methodologies_to_estimate_flows.pdf">past</a> <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf">experience</a> from around the <a href="http://www.eird.org/publicaciones/humanimpactreport.pdf">world</a> means we can be confident that many would also stay and <a href="https://theconversation.com/sea-level-rise-is-real-which-is-why-we-need-to-retreat-from-unrealistic-advice-51051">try to live</a> with a changed environment.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/uploads/research/Global-Mapping-Choices-Report.pdf">Climate Central report</a> acknowledges that its estimates do <em>not</em> take adaptation strategies into account, noting:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Results do not account for present or future shoreline defences, such as levees, that might be built, nor for future population growth, decline or relocation.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>A vast range of estimates – and plenty of guesswork</h2>
<p>Some of the numerical estimates on climate-related displacement are based on crude methodologies, as explained in my 2012 book, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/climate-change-forced-migration-and-international-law-9780199587087?cc=au&lang=en&">Climate Change, Forced Migration, and International Law.</a></p>
<p>For example, in 1993 social scientist Norman Myers wrote a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1312319?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">paper</a> suggesting that 150 million people could be displaced by climate change by the the mid-21st century. He had identified areas expected to be affected by sea-level rise, and then calculated the anticipated population of those areas in 2050. In subsequent work and interviews, he said the figure could be closer to 200 million or 250 million. Estimates ranging from <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/50-million-environmental-refugees-by-2020-experts-say-20110221-1b31i.html">50 million</a> to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/nov/03/global-warming-climate-refugees">600 million</a> to even a <a href="https://www.christianaid.org.uk/Images/human-tide.pdf">billion</a> have been cited by some.</p>
<p>The Observer published an article in 2010 headlined <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/nov/28/cancun-climate-summit-weather">“Climate change will cost a billion people their homes, says report”</a>.</p>
<p>However, that report misconstrued a paper by Dr François Gemenne –
whose work is empirically based and well-reasoned – that referred to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf">comment</a> that freshwater availability in a changing climate may <em>adversely affect</em> more than a billion people by the 2050s. That’s a different story from the one told in The Observer’s headline. </p>
<p>Many of these upper end estimates – and the methodologies used to calculate them – have been <a href="http://www.migrationdrc.org/publications/resource_guides/Migration_and_Climate_Change/Improving_methodologies_to_estimate_flows.pdf">criticised</a> by other researchers, who note that very big estimates often fail to account for adaptation. </p>
<p>The IPCC itself has <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch7s7-4-1.html">said</a> that: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Estimates of the number of people who may become environmental migrants are, at best, guesswork.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>How much weather-related displacement of people have we seen so far?</h2>
<p>Peter Singer’s comment was about future impacts of climate change. But what do we know about current and past climate-related movement?</p>
<p>The best statistics on this are published by the <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/">Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre</a> (IDMC), the leading source of information on internal displacement whose role has been endorsed by the UN. It said in its <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/20150713-global-estimates-2015-en-v1.pdf">Global Estimates 2015: People displaced by disasters</a> report that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Since 2008, an average of 22.5 million people have been displaced by climate- or weather-related disasters [each year].</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132746/original/image-20160802-17173-142az1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/assets/library/Media/201507-globalEstimates-2015/20150713-global-estimates-2015-en-v1.pdf">Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These figures were also recognised in the <a href="https://www.nanseninitiative.org/">Nansen Initiative’s</a> <a href="https://nanseninitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/PROTECTION-AGENDA-VOLUME-1.pdf">Agenda for the Protection of Cross-Border Displaced Persons in the context of Disasters and Climate Change</a>, endorsed by 109 States (including Australia) in late 2015, and by the UN Secretary-General’s <a href="https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/sites/default/files/in_safety_and_dignity_-_addressing_large_movements_of_refugees_and_migrants.pdf">report</a> on refugees and migrants prepared for a high-level summit on large movements of refugees and migrants to be held in New York in September 2016. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Are rising seas “estimated to cause something like 750 million refugees” to have to move, as Peter Singer said? Not according to the source he provided, which actually found that sea level rises under a 4°C warming scenario could submerge land currently home to 470 to 760 million people; the report didn’t say that all or most would subsequently become refugees. </p>
<p>As Singer acknowledged, his figure of 750 million people being affected by climate change-related flooding in future is at the upper end of estimates – and is contested. The methodologies and assumptions underpinning some of the upper end estimates have been critiqued by scholars, as they often do not adequately account for adaptation. <strong>– Jane McAdam</strong></p>
<hr>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>In general, I and others in the migration field would strongly agree with the author’s sound critique of Singer’s assertion. </p>
<p>Human mobility in the context of climate change is complex. Limits to a more nuanced understanding of this issue may be due to a lack of agreement on the legal definitions and the methodological choices made to project numbers of environmental migrants, as well as - importantly - an understatement of the agency and adaptive capacities of people. </p>
<p>Communities in coastal and low-lying areas that may be affected by sea-level rise in the future are affected today by recurrent natural hazards, coastal erosion, land subsidence, and saltwater contamination of arable land. </p>
<p>Empirical <a href="http://www.environmentalmigration.iom.int/migration-environment-and-climate-change-evidence-policy-meclep">studies</a>, including from the <a href="http://ehs.unu.edu/news/news/pacific-climate-change-and-migration-project-makes-waves-at-cop21.html">United Nations University</a>, have explored how migration contributes to livelihoods and household adaptation strategies.</p>
<p>Experts tend to agree that the types of movements that might fall under that moniker “climate migrant” are varied and complex. Robust estimates by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre fall short of accounting for people living in prolonged displacement, displaced across borders (generally agreed to be a minority), or migrating away from their homes due to the long-term effects of climate change (erratic weather, droughts, and the gradual loss of land). The last grouping may be the largest – and would be considered labour migration under current definitions.</p>
<p>The author’s section on weather-related displacement rightly adds an important dimension to a focus on sea-level rise, which is by no means the only cause of movement. An additional important point: climate change experts have largely been <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/02/science/looking-quickly-for-the-fingerprints-of-climate-change.html?_r=0">reluctant</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-factcheck-are-larger-more-frequent-storms-predicted-due-to-climate-change-60866">attribute any individual weather event</a> to climate change, thus making it difficult to attribute displacement due to climate- or weather-related disasters to climate change. <strong>– Julia Blocher</strong></p>
<hr>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane McAdam receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Research Council of Norway.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Blocher has previously received funding through the project “High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes” (HELIX - <a href="http://helixclimate.eu/home">http://helixclimate.eu/home</a>), funded by the EU Seventh Framework Programme for research (FP7). She is an associate member of the Hugo Observatory at the University of Liege, an interdisciplinary research group exploring migration phenomena related to environmental factors and climate change. The Hugo Observatory is directed by Dr. François Gemenne, who is referred to by the other author in this article.</span></em></p>Ethicist Peter Singer told Q&A that climate change-related sea level rises are “estimated to cause something like 750 million refugees just moving away from that flooding”. Is that accurate?Jane McAdam, Scientia Professor and Director of the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/621252016-07-12T01:45:50Z2016-07-12T01:45:50ZThree reasons to be cheerful about limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees<p>The recent streak of <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/earth-sees-11-record-hot-months-20254">record-breaking temperatures</a> has shown that climate change is not waiting for the world to take decisive action. </p>
<p>But the adoption of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a> was a clear signal that the world is ready to take climate change seriously. 175 countries signed and 15 of these ratified the climate deal during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-climate-deal-signing-ceremony-what-it-means-and-why-it-matters-58105">signing ceremony</a>.</p>
<p>Now there is every indication the agreement could enter into force this year. Many countries, led by the two biggest emitters, China and the United States, have signaled their intent to ratify <a href="http://climateanalytics.org/hot-topics/ratification-tracker">by the end of 2016</a>, leaving just four countries and 1.72% of global emissions needed for it to become official.</p>
<p>There can be no doubt that the window of opportunity to limit global warming to below 1.5°C, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-1-5-became-the-most-important-number-at-the-paris-climate-talks-51960">key target of the 2015 Paris agreement</a>, is closing fast. But there are encouraging signs around the world that this can still be done, even if there is still a very long way to go. Here are three of the most positive developments that will help the world reach its target. </p>
<h2>1. Green energy is getting cheaper</h2>
<p>The costs of climate mitigation have decreased drastically. According to <a href="http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_cost_data.html">NREL’s Transparent Costs Database</a>, wind energy costs in the US are now on a par with coal-fired power.</p>
<p>In May 2016 the price of photovoltaic (PV) energy fell to less than <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/solar-prices-plunge-to-new-lows-as-dubai-auction-nets-under-3ckwh-84894">three US cents a kilowatt</a> at an auction in Dubai. Even in not-so-sunny Germany, solar energy costs have been decreasing steadily: in a <a href="http://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/cln_1432/DE/Sachgebiete/ElektrizitaetundGas/Unternehmen_Institutionen/ErneuerbareEnergien/PV-Freiflaechenanlagen/Gebotstermin_01_12_2015/gebotstermin_01_12_2015_node.html">recent auction</a> in December 2015, prices fell to eight euro cents per kilowatt hour.</p>
<p>We can expect further cost decreases in the coming years. According to a recent <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Power_to_Change_2016.pdf">report</a>, by the end of the decade, the cost of onshore wind should decrease by a quarter, off-shore wind by a third and photovoltaics by almost two-thirds. By the mid-2020s, solar PV and onshore wind should cost 5 or 6 US cents per kilowatt hour on average. This is significantly <a href="http://en.openei.org/apps/TCDB/">below</a> the cost of energy from nuclear and coal.</p>
<p>As a result of decreasing costs and additional benefits, investment in renewables exploded in 2015 <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/lower-oil-prices-but-more-renewables-whats-going-on">despite</a> low oil prices. Meanwhile, renewable energy investment <a href="http://www.irena.org/News/Description.aspx?NType=A&mnu=cat&PriMenuID=16&CatID=84&News_ID=1446">reached</a> a record US$286 billion, generating 152 gigawatts of new capacity. This is more than the combined installed capacity from all sources for the whole <a href="http://www.tsp-data-portal.org/Breakdown-of-Electricity-Capacity-by-Energy-Source#tspQvChart">African continent</a>. </p>
<h2>2. Carbon dioxide emissions have stopped rising</h2>
<p>In 2014 and 2015, the CO₂ emissions from the energy sector stalled despite the global economy growing by 3%. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2014, emissions increased by <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/march/decoupling-of-global-emissions-and-economic-growth-confirmed.html">less than 0.2%</a> and <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/march/decoupling-of-global-emissions-and-economic-growth-confirmed.html">by only</a> 0.03% last year. </p>
<p>BP’s estimates for both years were slightly higher, (0.5% in <a href="http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-spencer-dale-presentation.pdf">2014</a> and 0.1% in <a href="http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/co2-emissions.html">2015</a>), but that was a significant change of trend compared to the average annual emission growth of around 2.6% over the past decade.</p>
<p>The major factor in this flattening trend was a fall in emissions of the two biggest emitters: China and the United States. In China, despite an <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/press/releases/climate-energy/2016/Data-shows-Chinas-economy-is-breaking-free-from-coal---Greenpeace/">increase</a> in power consumption by 3%, power generation from fossil fuels decreased by 2%. This <a href="https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/march/decoupling-of-global-emissions-and-economic-growth-confirmed.html">led emissions to fall by 1.5% last year</a>. In the United States, emissions <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25852">decreased</a> by 2% despite <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual">healthy economic growth</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, developing countries are taking advantage of the significant fall in the costs of renewables. While India’s emissions grew by over 5% last year, the second most populous country in the world has embarked <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/69425">on one of the fastest renewable expansion programmes anywhere on the planet</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/129596/original/image-20160706-12717-1srevrw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">India has embraced renewables on a massive scale.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/brahmakumaris/15206457819/in/photolist-paK58e-pqdcVN-paKVgJ-paKp53-pqdbgA-prXW9Z-prXVS6-paK5mv-psdxKm-nmDz5i-paKpZE-prXWpt-paK48Z-njAHLJ-paKUY9-psdxzw-nmDycr-paKqMw-njAPYH-7bAp5c-7bDUp5-7bDUpo-dT9jcu-7bDP95-fiu974-7915Fu-7bDP8Y-7bAp4T-9bBdFG-njVmBy-njARiM-pqdcd5-paKqh3-njAFZC-8caKj7-7915q3-njT7L2-7bAegP-5ZYPTS-njAH6q-tp53u-nhQE3j-njAHy9-njARqF-9NCzNg-74AkXD-6MJNi3-tp53z-7bDUpu-tp53B">Brahma Kumaris</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, India is <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/coals-claim-on-indias-energy-future-weakens-further-63636">taking steps to curb coal investments</a>. The choice between renewables and coal in India might be the most important factor when it comes to global efforts to reduce emissions.</p>
<h2>3. Green jobs are good for the economy</h2>
<p>Every major transition is accompanied by fears of job losses. But the positive economic impacts of new technologies are given less attention. In 2014, <a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Jobs_Annual_Review_2015.pdf">more than 7.7 million people worked in the renewables sector</a>, excluding large hydropower plants. A third of these jobs were in the photovoltaic sector, and an additional one million were employed in wind power – technologies which barely existed two decades ago.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Measuring-the-Economics_2016.pdf">Another report</a>, shows that doubling the share of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 would triple the number of jobs in the sector and increase global GDP by 1.1%. That’s the equivalent to US $1.3 trillion. In 2016, India plans to roll out 30 million solar irrigation pumps, which would have significant economic and sustainable development benefits for farmers, <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/69425">saving US$3 billion per year on subsidies</a>.</p>
<p>The funds required for this transition could be partly covered by savings from removing fossil fuel subsidies. <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42940.0">The IMF has found</a> that elimination of post-tax subsidies in 2015 would have increased government revenues by US$2.9 trillion and significantly reduced environmental and social impacts of fossil fuels. </p>
<p>In May 2016, G7 leaders <a href="http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000160266.pdf">committed</a> to eliminate “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” by 2025. The G20 is also under pressure to agree on a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-finance-energy-subsidies-idUSKCN0ZE1XI">timetable for phasing out subsidies</a>.</p>
<h2>Time for leadership</h2>
<p>The ingredients for transforming energy systems and decarbonising the economy are already there. We are deploying more technologies that can peak emissions and accelerate their decrease. </p>
<p>To speed up this transformation, governments must adopt policies that ensure investments in renewable energy are secure and provide clear signposts for everyone participating in the process of decarbonisation. </p>
<p>Political leadership now is fundamental to prevent a slide-back to coal, and to stand up to vested interests, while providing finance and technology to the regions that need it most.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare works for and owns shares in Climate Analytics, a non profit science based institute with headquarters in Berlin. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics have received research grants, Foundation and German Government International Climate Initiative funding for research and activities related to this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrzej Ancygier is affiliated with Climate Analytics and Environmental Policy Research Center in Berlin. He is also teaching at the New York University on subjects relating to environmental policy and social movements. </span></em></p>Amid the gloom, here are some hopeful signs that we can meet our climate obligations.Bill Hare, Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchAndrzej Ancygier, Climate Policy Analyst, Lecturer, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.