tag:theconversation.com,2011:/institutions/united-nations-university-694/articlesUnited Nations University2024-03-21T14:40:43Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2249822024-03-21T14:40:43Z2024-03-21T14:40:43ZGhana’s free high school policy is getting more girls to complete secondary education – study<p>Education drives economic growth and individual well-being. Secondary education, in particular, plays a crucial role. In recent decades, this recognition has encouraged several <a href="https://theconversation.com/free-secondary-education-in-african-countries-is-on-the-rise-but-is-it-the-best-policy-what-the-evidence-says-204924">African countries to make secondary education free</a>. One example is Ghana’s Free Public Senior High School (<a href="https://moe.gov.gh/index.php/free-shs-policy/">FreeSHS</a>) policy, initiated in 2017. </p>
<p>The policy aimed to remove cost barriers to secondary education, including fees, textbooks, boarding and meals. </p>
<p>As scholars of public policy, we conducted <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0738059324000439#bib4">research</a> into the impact of the policy, particularly its effect on the number of girls completing secondary school. We emphasised the educational outcomes of girls because they are at a disadvantage when accessing higher education in Ghana. The enrolment and retention of girls in school <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13603124.2019.1613565">decrease with each educational level</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/01443581211274647/full/html">Socio-culturally,</a> if a family has limited resources, they tend to spend more on boys’ education than on girls’ education and this is reinforced by the belief that girls’ labour around the house is more valuable.</p>
<p>The results highlighted that the state’s absorption of education costs had served as a critical incentive for students to complete secondary education – and more so for girls.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0738059324000439#bib4">Our paper</a> is the first to quantitatively evaluate the policy’s impact on education outcomes. Also, by focusing on the policy’s impact on schoolgirls, our findings show how removing cost barriers to education significantly enhances the chances of girls in completing secondary education. This is important because aside from female education having individual benefits, “to educate girls is to reduce poverty”, as former UN secretary-general <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2003/sgsm8662.doc.htm">Kofi Annan</a> said.</p>
<p>Our findings contribute to the call for greater schooling access for girls.</p>
<h2>Weighing up the pros and cons</h2>
<p>Ghana’s Free Public Senior High School policy arose from an <a href="https://www.codeoghana.org/assets/downloadables/2012%20NPP%20Manifesto.pdf">election campaign promise</a> made by President <a href="https://citifmonline.com/2017/09/from-2008-to-2017-the-free-shs-journey/">Nana Akufo-Addo during campaign trails in 2008, 2012 and 2016</a>.</p>
<p>Between 2017 and 2021 the government spent <a href="https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/politics/gh-5-12bn-spent-on-free-shs-minister.html">GH¢5.12 billion</a> (US$392 million) on implementing the policy. </p>
<p>There has been controversy. Critics have questioned the policy’s financial sustainability and raised concerns about <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/18146627.2023.2225754?casa_token=ghjM4EjR7LQAAAAA:Fh511M9k6kARILla_omwarRwRI8r_PA130k9DRvHDmJYvyCIIYDZb4u0FwqbmXuO3hD_3VL51CF6eA">deteriorating education quality</a>, given the rising enrolment rates since the policy’s inception.</p>
<p>Still, public opinion remains largely favourable. According to the <a href="https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/migrated/files/publications/Summary%20of%20results/summary_of_results-ghana_r8-19feb20-updated.pdf">Afrobarometer survey in 2020</a>, 23.5% agreed and 63.1% strongly agreed that it had created opportunities for those who otherwise would not have been able to afford secondary education. </p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>Our study set out to estimate the impact of the policy on education attainment. We emphasised how it had affected, in particular, the completion rate of girls. We did this by estimating the change in secondary school completion rates without the policy (2013 to 2016) and with it (2017 to 2020). </p>
<p>These rates will have been influenced by a number of factors, not just free education. But they were the starting point of our nuanced analysis.</p>
<p>Because all students benefited from the policy from 2017 we couldn’t simply estimate its impact by looking at the completion rate of those who benefited and those who had not. </p>
<p>So we compared districts where more students took advantage of the policy. That is, where more students had previously been unable to afford schooling to districts where fewer did so. This helped us see if the change in completion rates between these groups was bigger after the policy started. Basically, it’s like comparing two gardens. Both get extra water (free schooling) and experience an increase in growth. However, one garden grew more than the other.</p>
<p>That difference in “gardens” (school districts) allowed us to estimate the impact of the “water” (the policy) on education completion. </p>
<p>We found that the policy positively affected the educational attainment of both girls and boys. For girls and boys together, the policy increased the completion of senior high school by 14.9 percentage points. </p>
<p>There was a 14 percentage point increase in the rate of girls completing senior high school after the new policy. We did not estimate the increase for boys but the combined rate shows it will be higher than 14 percentage points.</p>
<p>We also found that after the policy was in place, girls enrolled in secondary high school at rates equal to or exceeding those of boys across all regions. However, this has not yet translated into full gender parity in completion rates. </p>
<p>The short-term impact suggests that the policy alone does not erase all gendered constraints to education (for example, social and cultural), but it has contributed to reducing them. </p>
<p>We did not find evidence that the policy improved the quality of education. However, we found that quality was statistically insignificant in driving completion rates.</p>
<p><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10780-022-09459-3">Reports</a> of inadequate infrastructure and overcrowding hint at an <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/18146627.2023.2225754">unchanged and even declining quality of schooling</a>. </p>
<h2>Policy implications</h2>
<p>Our findings have four policy implications. To maximise the benefits of increased enrolment and completion rates, Ghana must:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Address education quality concerns</strong>: An increase in secondary high school completion rates should not be mistaken for quality. Quality must be enhanced to improve labour market competitiveness and long-term gains.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Implement complementary policies</strong>: Increasing enrolment and completion rates will lead to a larger pool of educated youth. Labour market and tertiary education opportunities must be boosted to match the new demand.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Develop interventions to address specific needs of deprived districts</strong>: Some regions, for instance, the northern and western regions, had among the lowest uptake rates for the free senior high school policy. There are underlying barriers to education in these regions other than fees. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0738059321000237">Lessons from Uganda</a> have shown that, despite universal fee-free secondary education, the probability of enrolling in secondary education was reduced by greater distance to the nearest school, especially in rural compared to urban areas. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Make FreeSHS a targeted intervention rather than universal</strong>: The government must do more to systematically identify those who cannot pay and make secondary education free for them. The policy can also be used to provide incentives for the uptake of technical and vocational education and training. This can yield savings, generate resources for quality education investments and increase employment opportunities. </p></li>
</ul>
<p><em>This article and the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0738059324000439#bib4">research</a> it is based upon was led by <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/alicia-stenzel/?originalSubdomain=de">Alicia Stenzel</a> (Education Policy Advisor at GIZ).</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224982/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Free secondary educational policy in Ghana is worthwhile but struggles to keep up with quality.Victor Osei Kwadwo, Lecturer, Maastricht University (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityRose Vincent, Assistant Professor, Utrecht UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245452024-03-06T13:23:20Z2024-03-06T13:23:20ZNigeria: botched economic reforms plunge the country into crisis<p>Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is facing an economic crisis. From a botched currency redesign to the removal of fuel subsidies and a currency float, the nation has been plunged into spiralling inflation and a currency crisis with far-reaching consequences. The question now is: how long before the inferno consumes everything?</p>
<p>On October 26, 2022, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced a <a href="https://www.thecable.ng/breaking-buhari-unveils-redesigned-naira-notes">bold move</a> – that it had redesigned the country’s highest denomination notes (₦200, ₦500 and ₦1000) and would be removing all old notes from circulation. People were given a deadline of January 31, 2023 (a couple of weeks before a national election) to make this exchange, or all of the old notes would cease to be valid legal tender.</p>
<p>This initiative ostensibly aimed to curb counterfeiting, encourage cashless transactions, and limit the buying of votes during the elections. But, while the intention may have been sound, the execution proved disastrous. </p>
<p>Short deadlines, limited availability of new notes, and inadequate communication created widespread panic. It led to long queues at banks, frustration among citizens, and a <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/01/18/why-nigeria-s-controversial-naira-redesign-policy-hasn-t-met-its-objectives-pub-91405">thriving black market</a> for the new notes. </p>
<p>The confusion surrounding the currency redesign had an unintended consequence: the beginnings of a loss of confidence in the naira. People began to look to other mediums as a store of value and as a medium of exchange. The obvious choices were foreign currency like the US dollar and the British pound, as well as more stable cryptocurrencies like <a href="https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/weak-naira-cross-border-payments-drive-nigerians-into-cryptos/">Tether’s USDT</a>.</p>
<p>The currency redesign was criticised at the time by the then-presidential candidate of the ruling party, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who saw it as a move to <a href="https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/01/2023-fuel-scarcity-naira-redesign-ploy-to-sabotage-my-chances-tinubu/">derail his presidential campaign</a>. However, Tinubu won the contested election and, once in power, set out to reshape the economy immediately. </p>
<p>In his inaugural address in May 2023, Tinubu <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/601239-fuel-subsidy-is-gone-tinubu-declares.html">announced</a> that the “fuel subsidy is gone”, referring to the government’s longstanding subsidised petrol policy that ensured Nigerians enjoyed some of the lowest petrol prices in the world. Over the coming days, he would also announce the reversal of the currency redesign policy and the <a href="https://leadership.ng/tinubu-begins-monetary-policy-reforms-floats-naira/">floating of the Nigerian naira</a> on the foreign exchange market.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A compilation of Nigerian naira bank notes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579202/original/file-20240301-28-sej1lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579202/original/file-20240301-28-sej1lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579202/original/file-20240301-28-sej1lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579202/original/file-20240301-28-sej1lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579202/original/file-20240301-28-sej1lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579202/original/file-20240301-28-sej1lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579202/original/file-20240301-28-sej1lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When in office, Tinubu reversed the currency redesign policy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/naira-currency-nigeria-200751113">Pavel Shlykov/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fuelling the flames</h2>
<p>Other underlying economic conditions around the time of Tinubu’s inauguration included a large amount of foreign debt, dwindling foreign reserves and global economic headwinds. When the removal of the fuel subsidy was announced, it was met with a mix of surprise and elation by many Nigerians, and in particular by international donor agencies like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, who had long been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/nigeria-should-end-fuel-subsidy-speed-reforms-boost-growth-world-bank-says-2021-11-23/">advocating</a> for the removal.</p>
<p>But this was all before the effects began to bite. And bite hard they did. The price of Premium Motor Spirit (also known as gasoline or petrol), which used to retail for ₦189 (US$0.12) per litre, increased by 196% practically overnight and began to retail for <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-triple-petrol-prices-after-president-says-subsidy-end-2023-05-31/">₦557 per litre</a>. </p>
<p>One challenge with developing economies like Nigeria is that a rise in fuel price tends to cause the price of everything else to rise. Many industries, particularly those in manufacturing and agriculture, tend to rely heavily on fuel for powering machinery and equipment due to the poor supply of grid electricity nationwide.</p>
<p>Many Nigerian households were significantly affected by the increased prices. But they saw an opportunity in that the savings from the fuel subsidy regime would be redistributed to improve education, healthcare provision and the general welfare of the people, as was promised during the electioneering. The regime cost the country an estimated <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/582724-fuel-subsidy-now-above-n400bn-monthly-nnpcl.html">₦400 billion</a> a month at its height, after all. </p>
<h2>Enter currency devaluation</h2>
<p>Then, on June 14, 2023, the Tinubu government ended the policy of pegging the naira to the US dollar, allowing it to float and find its true market value based on supply and demand. The idea was to stop corruption and reduce arbitrage opportunities due to the difference between official and black-market foreign exchange prices. </p>
<p>Currency arbitrage happens when people buy a currency at the lower official exchange rate and immediately sell it at the higher black market rate for a profit. This practice often occurs where there are strict currency controls and black markets offer a truer reflection of a currency’s value based on supply and demand.</p>
<p>However, this was one policy change too many. The naira lost a staggering <a href="https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/nigeria/news/exchange-rate/central-bank-sets-the-naira-free-to-fall/">25% of its value</a> in one day, and the cascading effects now push the country to the brink.</p>
<p>Nigeria depends heavily on imported commodities, including essential goods like food, fuel and medicine. So the policy escalated the inflationary crisis, pushing inflation to almost 30% (the major driver being food inflation, which <a href="https://leadership.ng/food-headline-inflation-spike-to-35-4-29-9/">reached 35.4%</a>). </p>
<p>Imports in general have become significantly more expensive, and Nigerians are finding their purchasing power being eroded. Wages in Nigeria are pretty fixed. The current minimum wage in the country is <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1119133/monthly-minimum-wage-in-nigeria/">₦30,000</a> per month and the average monthly income is <a href="https://wagecentre.com/work/work-in-africa/salary-in-nigeria">₦71,185</a>. </p>
<p>Businesses are also feeling the pinch, facing difficulties accessing the <a href="https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-market-challenges">foreign exchange</a> critical for importing raw materials and equipment. </p>
<h2>Pheonix or ash?</h2>
<p>The Central Bank of Nigeria has implemented measures to counter the crisis. It recently raised interest rates from <a href="https://punchng.com/just-in-cbn-raises-interest-rate-to-22-75/">18.75% to 22.75%</a> and is selling US dollars through auctions. </p>
<p>Recovery is a possibility and there are already signs of appreciation in the currency. The <a href="https://businessday.ng/news/article/naira-records-first-gain-at-official-market-after-rate-hike/">naira appreciated</a> by 6.89% a day after interest rates were raised. But it will be a long, hard road. </p>
<p>These strategies often come with trade-offs. Higher interest rates can stifle already struggling economic growth, while currency interventions might deplete already strained reserves of foreign currency. </p>
<p>The bottom line is that if the current cost of living crisis continues, civil unrest is likely. Should this happen, who knows what – if anything – will be left behind when the flames are done.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224545/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kunal Sen has received funding from ESRC and DFID. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chisom Ubabukoh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Africa’s largest economy is in crisis, and unrest is growing.Chisom Ubabukoh, Assistant Professor of Economics, O.P. Jindal Global UniversityKunal Sen, Professor and Director, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2247072024-03-05T16:30:30Z2024-03-05T16:30:30ZHow countries in conflict zones can recover from floods – lessons from Pakistan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578963/original/file-20240229-20-88ie0x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A family crosses the flooded streets of Pakistan in 2010. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatevisuals.org/search/?searchQuery=flood%20pakistan">Gerhard JˆrÈn/Climate Visuals</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>More than 6,000 people died and at least 11,000 <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/18/libya-floods-conflicting-death-tolls-greek-aid-workers-die-in-crash#:%7E:text=Confusion%20has%20emerged%20over%20the,killed%20elsewhere%20in%20eastern%20Libya">reportedly disappeared</a> in the aftermath of the destructive flood that hit Libya on <a href="https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/devastating-flooding-libya">September 10 2023</a>. </p>
<p>Infrastructure in north-eastern Libya has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/libya-floods-the-drowning-of-derna-was-a-man-made-disaster-decades-in-the-making-213797">seriously damaged</a>. The economy continues to suffer and companies that are crucial partners for reconstruction and development have been forced to close due to <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/90695">flood damage</a>. With more than <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/unhcr-update-libya-september-2023-enar">40,000 people</a> still displaced, labour shortages continue and essential services, including healthcare, remain disrupted. </p>
<p>This severe flooding highlighted the vulnerability of Libya – a country already grappling with political instability, <a href="https://www.rulac.org/publications/libya-a-short-guide-to-the-conflict">ongoing conflict</a> and a deteriorating economy – to climate-related threats. </p>
<p>Libya and other flood-hit countries, especially in conflict zones, could learn a lot from Pakistan, where the plans for recovery from similar floods in 2022 differ in some significant ways. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s response to its floods included a comprehensive <a href="https://www.undp.org/pakistan/publications/pakistan-floods-2022-post-disaster-needs-assessment-pdna">post-disaster needs assessment</a>, a strategy that outlines clear priorities for rebuilding livelihoods, agriculture and public infrastructure over the coming five years. </p>
<p>Libya’s approach lacks this forward planning. Without conducting a comprehensive assessment of what a country needs, meaningful recovery efforts cannot be effectively carried out.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/what-sendai-framework">United Nations Sendai framework</a>, a global agreement that guides countries in reducing the risks of natural disasters, emphasises the importance of “building back better” in recovery to reduce vulnerabilities of a place and its people. </p>
<p>However, most disaster management doesn’t focus on long-term recovery. My research in disaster recovery and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=c5aWJIsAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">climate change adaptation</a> indicates that the best route for the development of comprehensive and sustainable plans is for the government and relevant organisations to rebuild affected communities, repair damaged infrastructure and provide ongoing social, economic and health support. </p>
<p>Now that initial response and relief efforts have been rolled out across Libya’s affected regions, the focus needs to shift to consider the long-term recovery of these communities. </p>
<h2>The damage of debt</h2>
<p>The country also needs to consider how it funds its recovery. Developing countries tend to rely heavily on loans to <a href="https://floodresilience.net/resources/item/2020-floods-in-tabasco-lessons-learned-for-strengthening-social-capital/">fund recovery programmes</a>. Countries, including Pakistan, are often forced to continue paying existing loans in the aftermath of disasters instead of spending new funds on recovery. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s journey towards recovery from the major floods of <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/news/pakistan-flooding-one-year-later">2010 and 2011</a> is a stark example of the challenges countries face when burdened with heavy debt. In order to rebuild and rehabilitate, Pakistan borrowed a staggering estimated <a href="https://devinit.org/resources/filling-the-gap-addressing-climate-driven-crises-pakistan/">US$20 billion to US$40 billion</a>. This came at a significant cost.</p>
<p>In 2021, the burden of repaying debts amounted to <a href="https://devinit.org/resources/filling-the-gap-addressing-climate-driven-crises-pakistan/">US$11.9 billion annually</a> accounting for 32% of the Pakistan government’s revenue. Consequently, Pakistan’s capacity to effectively respond to the 2022 floods was severely restricted. Ironically, the country accumulated more debt in addressing the aftermath of these floods than it received in humanitarian support in 2022.</p>
<p>Countries like Libya need to carefully manage their borrowing to avoid long-term economic challenges and debt burdens. Pakistan’s experience showed that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/pakistan-floods/">private donations</a> from within the country can be a significant source of funds, alongside the international giving that is more common.</p>
<p>Libya could explore alternative funding sources such as international grants, loans from international financial institutions, redirecting existing budget allocations and generating additional revenue domestically through stimulating economic growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Close up shot of boy drinking clean fresh water from outside tap" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578964/original/file-20240229-28-op0abw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2010 Pakistan was hit by one of the largest natural disasters the world has ever seen. Ten years’ worth of rain falling in just two weeks resulted in extreme flooding across much of the country. Access to clean drinking water became a huge issue.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatevisuals.org/search/?searchQuery=flood%20pakistan">Vicki Francis/DFID/Climate Visuals</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Road to recovery</h2>
<p>There is also a more literal question of how to rebuild. In Pakistan, the reconstruction of damaged roads, bridges, power stations, schools, hospitals and homes involved a collaborative approach. Inspired by the self-resilience housing model developed by Yasmeen Lari, <a href="https://www.arct.cam.ac.uk/staff/professor-yasmeen-lari">Pakistan’s first female architect</a>, local community involvement was key. </p>
<p>This model also promotes sustainability and generates local employment by using locally sourced materials, such as mud bricks. Instead of relying on conventional and expensive building materials like cement blocks, local people make mud bricks using locally sourced clay and other natural materials that are easily replaceable in the future. </p>
<p>Pakistan’s self-resilience housing approach taps into the benefits of short supply chains and creates local jobs in the process. Libya needs to draw lessons from this strategy for rebuilding infrastructure. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Looking down over sandy ground, brown mud bricks drying in vast rows on the ground, a few trees in background" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578967/original/file-20240229-24-rzo7n3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mud bricks are made by local communities in Pakistan as part of efforts to improve resilience.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bricks-made-mud-putting-row-2404684131">nadeemshahzad/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Recovery efforts should not only focus on rebuilding physical infrastructure. Strengthening economic, social and environmental resilience must be prioritised too. As seen in Pakistan, millions of people are <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/pakistan-flood-victims-crises-collide-fuel-growing-hunger">still struggling</a> to find a sustainable means of livelihood and <a href="https://www.redcross.org.uk/stories/disasters-and-emergencies/world/climate-change-and-pakistan-flooding-affecting-millions">clean water</a> remains a pressing issue in many affected areas. </p>
<p>Social and psychological support is just as important. That includes counselling services and mental health systems to address trauma, grief and loss. </p>
<p>A 2022 <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2022.890671">study</a> by Iranian researchers revealed that post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms were particularly prevalent after extreme flood events. Another <a href="https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2022-pakistan-floods/">2022 report</a> showed that Pakistan flood survivors who were given professional psychological support recovered more rapidly and completely.</p>
<p>To pave the way for recovery in Libya, additional support will be needed, particularly in terms of temporary shelters, medicine and access to health facilities and sanitation services. </p>
<p>Coordinated local action and stable governance will help fragile regions like Libya and Pakistan to strengthen communities and prepare for more inevitable climate shocks. Peace building needs to be an integral part of climate crisis recovery, prevention and readiness.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola is a Visiting Scientist at the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. He is grateful to have received grants supporting his research on climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.</span></em></p>Our expert in disaster recovery and climate change adaptation calls for a longer-term response to conflict zones affected by severe flooding, such as Libya and Pakistan.Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola, Visiting Scientist, United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231452024-02-22T14:37:14Z2024-02-22T14:37:14ZTraditional weather forecasts: expert shares 5 ways Africa’s coastal residents predict floods<p>In the Lapai Gwari community of Niger state, north central Nigeria, elders predict the weather by observing a large stone in the Chachanga River. The LapanGwagwan stone serves as a tool to determine the frequency of flooding and gauge the severity of rainfall. </p>
<p>When the colour of the stone changes to brown, it signifies an imminent heavy downpour, while a grey colour indicates either light or moderate rainfall. </p>
<p>This traditional knowledge helps the community to prepare for potential flooding.</p>
<p>This is just one example of the indigenous knowledge established in the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26269399?seq=1">literature</a> as important in mitigating the effects of climate change. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-7/">report</a> also affirms that indigenous knowledge should be integrated into research.</p>
<p>Transferring this knowledge doesn’t always happen, however. Scientists and policymakers don’t all recognise its value.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, for coastal communities like Lapai Gwari, frequent flooding poses a <a href="https://ehs.unu.edu/news/news/frequent-flooding-in-african-coastal-cities-demand-holistic-recovery-pathways.html#:%7E:text=Frequent%20flooding%20in%20African%20coastal%20cities%20demand%20holistic%20recovery%20pathways,-News&text=Coastal%20cities%20across%20Africa%20experience,and%20oftentimes%20extreme%E2%80%93%20flood%20events.">major threat and risk</a> to long-term development. </p>
<p><a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.253">Studies</a> suggest that by 2100, sea levels could rise by as much as 100cm, presenting even more hazards to coastal communities around Africa.</p>
<p>I have been <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=c5aWJIsAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">researching</a> the adaptation and resilience of African coastal cities to climate change for over a decade. I believe that identifying and integrating indigenous knowledge has a lot to offer.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-27280-6_10">recent book chapter</a>, I identified five unique indigenous knowledge strategies practised in four coastal communities of Africa. These are: change in water colour; lunar observation; participatory mapping; yearly sacrifice to the gods; and extensive knowledge of local plants and animals.</p>
<p>I argue that drawing on local wisdom and expertise can enhance policies and mechanisms to protect people from the effects of frequent flooding in African coastal cities. </p>
<h2>Research aims and methods</h2>
<p>To identify the indigenous knowledge within these communities, I reviewed relevant literature, newspaper articles and social media outlets, and interviewed local residents of coastal communities. These were in Lagos and Delta States in Nigeria, Durban in South Africa, and Accra in Ghana. </p>
<p>I aimed to understand practices in these communities that related to flood resilience and adaptation.</p>
<p>I discovered that people had useful indigenous knowledge about predicting and mapping flood risks. But this knowledge was fragmented and there wasn’t a cohesive framework to put it into practice.</p>
<p>People said that knowledge wasn’t being documented and shared. Also, religion and education influenced perceptions about the value of the knowledge. </p>
<h2>Five indigenous knowledge strategies</h2>
<p><strong>Change in water colour:</strong> Local residents in Delta State, Nigeria told me how they knew that a flood was about to occur: there was a sudden change in the colour of the water from clear to deep brown. The flood usually followed the change in water colour after 24 to 48 hours. This warning sign gave the community time to take precautions, such as evacuating low-lying areas and securing belongings.</p>
<p><strong>Lunar observation:</strong> People in the Anlo coastal community in Ghana’s Volta Region study the moon and use it to predict flood years. They said an approaching full moon during the peak of rainfall indicated that flood was imminent. They understand the moon’s influence on tidal patterns and its correlation with flood events, empowering them to act in advance.</p>
<p><strong>Participatory mapping approach:</strong> In Accra and Durban, some residents have developed a participatory mapping approach which helps them prepare for floods. They map their surroundings, including vulnerable areas and natural resources. This enables them to identify areas prone to flooding and assess the effectiveness of existing nature-based solutions such as mangroves or wetlands. They can also find ways to reduce flood risks.</p>
<p><strong>Yearly sacrifice to the gods:</strong> The chief priest of the Isheri community in Lagos described an annual sacrifice performed to appease the gods and cope with flooding. This indigenous practice reflects the cultural and spiritual beliefs of the community.</p>
<p><strong>Knowledge of local flora and fauna:</strong> The coastal communities I studied had a deep knowledge of local plants and animals and their ecological significance. They knew about the impact of climate change on these species. Through their close interactions with the environment, people had observed changes in the behaviour, distribution and abundance of species, providing valuable insights into the effects of climate change.</p>
<h2>From practice to policy</h2>
<p>These unique indigenous knowledge practices offer opportunities to build resilient coastal communities. So it is disheartening that their recognition and integration into mainstream efforts remains limited. </p>
<p>My <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-27280-6_10">study</a> proposes that the new models and innovations for resilience practice should draw on indigenous knowledge.</p>
<p>The starting point is for policymakers to acknowledge its value. Ways must be found to work together, creating and sharing knowledge. Such platforms should bring together scientists, experts, policymakers and indigenous communities to foster mutual learning, respect and understanding.</p>
<p>Communities also need help to build their capacity and strengthen their role in resilience initiatives. This includes supporting initiatives that document and preserve indigenous knowledge, recognising its cultural and historical significance. </p>
<p>Investments should be made in education and training that promotes the transmission of indigenous knowledge to younger generations, ensuring its continuity and relevance in the face of evolving environmental challenges.</p>
<p>By embracing the authentic integration of scientific and indigenous knowledge, we can pave the way for more comprehensive, context-specific and sustainable approaches to flood resilience in African coastal cities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223145/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola is a Visiting Scientist at the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. </span></em></p>In African coastal communities, traditional knowledge helps residents to anticipate and prepare for potential flooding events.Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola, Visiting Scientist, United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2139412024-01-29T16:38:18Z2024-01-29T16:38:18ZAffirmative action policies to increase diversity are successful, but controversial, around the world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571167/original/file-20240124-27-lxpu7g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=19%2C19%2C6536%2C4344&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/smiling-diverse-male-company-representatives-colleagues-1463772395">fizkes/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a landmark judgment in June 2023, the US supreme court ruled against the use of race-conscious admissions in colleges and universities. This decision marked a controversial end to <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/07/10/the-end-of-affirmative-action">affirmative action</a> in US higher education admissions. </p>
<p>Race-conscious admissions policies at American universities have a history that goes back to the 1960s <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/learn-origins-term-affirmative-action-180959531">civil rights movement</a>. These policies aimed to increase the number of students from underrepresented groups and build more racially diverse student populations. Writing for the supreme court majority opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/20-1199_hgdj.pdf">wrote</a> that many universities have “concluded, wrongly, that the touchstone of an individual’s identity is not challenges bested, skills built, or lessons learned but the color of their skin”.</p>
<p>But the US is not the only country with policies to correct or compensate for ethnic, religious or racial discrimination. Our <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2023-59-affirmative-action-around-world-new-dataset.pdf">working paper</a> compares the varying types and success of these policies around the world. </p>
<p>Affirmative action is a relatively recent tool for most countries, with policies <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2023-59-affirmative-action-around-world-new-dataset.pdf">gaining momentum</a> from the 1990s onwards, particularly in politics. This was followed by public sector employment and education in the 2000s, and later by private sector employment in the 2010s. </p>
<p>Affirmative action policies can include <a href="https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aeri.20200196">“soft” measures</a> designed to increase minority representation in a candidate pool. For instance, language in job postings that signals a commitment to diversity and encourages minority applicants.</p>
<p>They may also include “hard” measures, such as direct consideration of minority status in admissions or hiring decisions, or implementing quotas in national legislative bodies. New Zealand’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-elections-maori-seats-once-again-focus-of-debate-83293">“Māori seats”</a>, which give government representation to the indigenous Māori people, are an example of this.</p>
<h2>Differences around the world</h2>
<p>In Europe, <a href="https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/45515983-3e3e-4a24-bcbc-477f04f0ba04">“positive action”</a> is a more common term than affirmative action. In some contexts, “positive discrimination” is <a href="https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/networks/european-migration-network-emn/emn-asylum-and-migration-glossary/glossary/positive-discrimination_en">understood as a synonym</a> for both. </p>
<p>In some countries, there is a sharp distinction between terms. In <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/positive-action-in-the-workplace-guidance-for-employers/positive-action-in-the-workplace#what-is-positive-action">Great Britain</a>, employers are allowed to take positive action that may involve “treating one group that shares a protected characteristic more favourably than others”. This may mean providing targeted job training programmes. Positive discrimination, such as hiring a less-qualified candidate because she is from an underrepresented group, is prohibited under the Equality Act.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2023-15-impact-affirmative-action-India-United-States.pdf">India</a> is known as the first country to adopt affirmative action policies. The heart of Indian affirmative action lies in the reservation system. This system “reserves” spots in government employment, governing bodies, and educational admissions for <a href="https://socialjustice.gov.in/common/76750">“scheduled castes and tribes”</a> and other marginalised groups. This system has roots in similar practices during the colonial period.</p>
<p>Following its independence, India continued the reservation system through its <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/legal-basis-affirmative-action-india">1950 constitution</a> and subsequent amendment in 1951. These provisions ensured the representation of historically marginalised castes and tribes not just in politics, but also in employment and education sectors through set quotas. India later expanded these initiatives to “other backward classes” and “economically weaker sections”.</p>
<p>Like affirmative action in the US, India’s reservation system has been subject to intense debate. Members of groups not benefiting from reservations have publicly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/07/18/classes-clash-over-quotas-in-india/2989a918-9a92-4246-8ac2-50698511945a/">criticised</a> the ethnic- and class-based quotas. Critics argue that these measures promote unfair preferences and reverse discrimination. </p>
<p>But the two countries have taken <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2023-15-impact-affirmative-action-India-United-States.pdf">starkly different routes</a> in how they handled this contentious issue. In the US, court decisions progressively led to softening or abolishing affirmative action programmes. In <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2022-74-legal-basis-affirmative-action-India.pdf">India</a>, faced with similar court rulings, a series of constitutional amendments have preserved reservations.</p>
<h2>Does affirmative action work?</h2>
<p>With colleagues, we built a <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2023-59-affirmative-action-around-world-new-dataset.pdf">global dataset</a> of affirmative action policies around the world. We also conducted a <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2023-14-does-affirmative-action-address-ethnic-inequality.pdf">systematic review of the literature</a> to determine whether they are successful.</p>
<p>We found that 63% of the 194 studies we reviewed concluded that affirmative action programmes indeed served to improve outcomes for ethnic, religious or racial minorities. These measures helped the target groups gain better education and employment outcomes, as well as foster meaningful political participation. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, as the US and India show, affirmative action is often deeply controversial. Regardless of what the research shows about the success of these policies, they are often met with protest and resistance. </p>
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<p>In over half of the countries we studied, national <a href="https://www.africanews.com/2018/09/04/white-workers-in-s-africa-protest-against-discrimination-by-black-only-share//">protests</a> and <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/reform-in-malaysia-still-beholden-to-racial-politics/4728537.html">civic action</a> emerged in support of or against the conduct of affirmative action policies. And almost one in five saw <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/toi-original/not-just-violent-maratha-reservation-protests-eknath-shindes-added-troubles-include-his-own-mps-resigning/videoshow/104845275.cms">violent incidents</a> or riots directly linked to the introduction and implementation of affirmative action policies. </p>
<p>Governments hoping to implement or expand affirmative action programmes should consider these effects. </p>
<p>In her <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/20-1199_hgdj.pdf">dissenting opinion</a>, US supreme court justice Sonia Sotomayor argued that affirmative action is a necessary corrective to advance equality. So, what can be done to shift public discourse and build support for these programmes?</p>
<p>In the US, recent <a href="https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/317006/affirmative-action-public-opinion.aspx">public opinion polls</a> suggest significant opposition to racial preferences in hiring decisions. The same polling shows strong support for equal opportunity and diversity. This suggests that the way forward may be to pursue soft over hard affirmative action measures – encouraging diversity without implementing quotas.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel M Gisselquist receives funding from UNU-WIDER.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Min J. Kim is a Visiting Assistant Professor at George Washington University. </span></em></p>Affirmative action policies in politics, education and the labour force are often met with protest and resistance.Rachel M Gisselquist, Senior Research Fellow, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations UniversityMin J. Kim, Visiting Assistant Professor at the George Washington University; Visiting Researcher, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212812024-01-18T16:49:08Z2024-01-18T16:49:08ZMigrants can be a transformative force for sustainable development<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570079/original/file-20240118-30-qftv6c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3401%2C2341&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A study found migrants were more likely to volunteer in their communities than native residents.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/happy-multiracial-senior-women-having-fun-2350443587">Sabrina Bracher/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Amsterdammers are proud of their city. But it turns out that people who have moved there from other parts of the world are just as concerned about keeping the place green and pleasant. We surveyed Amsterdam residents and <a href="https://www.projectmisty.org/post/is-covid-19-shifting-attitudes-towards-sustainability-a-case-study-from-amsterdam">found</a>, among other things, that recent migrants were just as likely to recycle as those born and raised in the city.</p>
<p>Similarly, research has shown that internal and international migrants living in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102790">Accra, Ghana</a> were more likely to take part in activities that enriched the local environment, like creating community gardens to grow food, than people who were born there.</p>
<p>Can the movement of people (including those displaced by climate change) aid sustainable solutions to environmental problems? Our research suggests that it can. Migration is good for society in circumstances when it reduces inequality, enhances overall wellbeing, and does not place greater environmental burdens on the regions where people move to or from.</p>
<h2>Migrant flows and their consequences</h2>
<p>Sustainable development means enhancing wellbeing in ways that fairly meet the needs of present and future generations. A new set of <a href="https://www.pnas.org/topic/554">studies</a> has shown that new policies are needed to manage migration in a way that ensures such sustainability, while also minimising involuntary displacement due to conflict or disasters.</p>
<p>Poorly managed migration can deepen inequality and increase environmental damage. One <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206192119">study</a> looked at Florida in the US, where sea-level rise is expected to lead to outward migration – with younger, economically active adults moving first. Such migration would put pressure on housing and water and contribute to congestion and pollution in the destination cities, while leaving the coastal areas with ageing populations and a lower tax base.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cars driving down a flooded road in the US." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570077/original/file-20240118-21-clste5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Climate change is expected to spur the significant movement of people this century.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/car-driving-through-water-on-flooded-2209624689">Ajax9/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Niue, Papua New Guinea and the Marshall Islands, a recent <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206190120">study</a> showed that people’s sense of belonging and their capacity to maintain a sense of unity, even when many of them are emigrating, affected the long-term stability of remaining populations. Current patterns of emigration by working-age adults from these areas reduce pressure on natural resources in the origin islands, while the emigrant populations in Australia and New Zealand still support and promote their communities in the island nations. </p>
<p>In this way, population levels in the islands are kept stable and people there are less directly dependent on fishing and farming, as their income and ability to invest locally is increased through remittances. According to <a href="https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/profile/851570-sergio-jarillo-de-la-torre">Sergio Jarillo</a> and <a href="https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/profile/8871-jon-barnett">Jon Barnett</a> from the University of Melbourne, it is this sense of belonging that “binds the people who live in and migrate from these places into a collective commitment to the continuity” of these island communities, which are threatened by climate change.</p>
<p>It is crucial to consider the impact of migration in the places people leave behind, as well as their new homes. At a global level, migrants remain rare (most people live close to where they were born) and international migrants even rarer, with those displaced by conflict or disaster rarer still. Most media attention on environmental migration to date has concerned people fleeing conflict or disasters, and so-called climate refugees.</p>
<p>Most migrants fleeing conflict or disaster end up concentrated in a few places relatively near to where they have fled from, creating significant new demands on water, food and waste services. As such, it is the clustering of people in one place, not migration itself, that poses the greatest challenges for sustainability.</p>
<p>The world’s largest refugee camps, home to those displaced because of conflict and disaster, are regularly in places that <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206189120">are vulnerable to climate change</a>. The Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, for example, have regularly been made uninhabitable by flooding in recent years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of people stood amid waterlogged soil with tin houses in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=368&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570074/original/file-20240118-25-jshnpp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fleeing persecution in Myanmar, over 700,000 Rohingya people have sought shelter in Bangladesh.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coxs-bazar-january-26-2018-muslim-1034950948">Hafizie Shabudin/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Addressing migration and the environment together</h2>
<p>Sustainability and migration are often managed separately. Yet we need new policies that manage migration in the interests of people and the planet, now and into the future. This includes focusing on the largest reason people move, known as “regular” migration: to find new economic and life opportunities. </p>
<p>For regular migration flows, planning is needed in destination areas to meet the increased demand for housing, employment and services. When new populations are integrated into communities with urban planning, the cities tend to work better for them and they feel more invested in their new homes. Such measures have <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1758-5899.12855">been shown</a> to create a positive environment for growth and reduce social tensions. </p>
<p>City planners in Chattogram in Bangladesh, for example, listened to migrants through forums and discussion groups, and have begun to amend their infrastructure plans to improve the city’s informal settlements and provide clean water. </p>
<p>Governments also need to minimise the displacement of people as a result of environmental degradation and climate change in the first place, which amounts to a fundamental breach of their rights to a secure life.</p>
<p>Ultimately, we need to reset how migration is discussed in society – away from simple tropes that paint it as a threat, towards using evidence of its consequences for economies, environments and social cohesion. </p>
<p>Realising the potential of migration to enhance sustainability requires seeing the benefits and costs to society in the round – not putting migration and sustainability <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206184120">in separate boxes working against each other</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonja Fransen received funding from the Dutch Scientific Council (NWO) for the MISTY project, and an institutional Comprehensive Innovation grant from UNU-MERIT.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Adger receives funding from International Development Research Centre, Canada; Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, UK; National Institute for Health Research, UK; Economic and Social Research Council, UK; and the European Commission Horizon 2020 programme. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ricardo Safra de Campos receives funding from International Development Research Centre, Canada; Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, UK; National Institute for Health Research, UK; Economic and Social Research Council, UK; and the European Commission Horizon 2020 programme.. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>William C. Clark receives funding from Italy's Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through its gift to Harvard University’s Sustainability Science Program.
</span></em></p>Migration is considered an inevitable effect of climate change. It could also be part of the solution.Sonja Fransen, Senior Researcher, Migration and Development, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityNeil Adger, Professor of Human Geography, University of ExeterRicardo Safra de Campos, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography, University of ExeterWilliam C. Clark, Professor of International Science, Public Policy and Human Development, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151142023-12-19T06:13:11Z2023-12-19T06:13:11ZHow government payments to the vulnerable can multiply to create economic growth for everyone<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562791/original/file-20231130-23-78n6nq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7951%2C5304&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many governments gave out payments during COVID to support citizens.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/business-money-covid-19-crisis-international-1723543669">Azure Alpine Artistry/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The economic fallout of COVID-19 left people around the world facing a significant threat to their livelihood. As governments scrambled to mitigate the pandemic’s impact on their populations, many decided to use direct payments to support vulnerable citizens.</p>
<p><a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/7cdbc28a-22ce-5e86-a4bc-640442d46ef8">More than a sixth</a> of the world’s population received some sort of cash transfer in 2020. These programmes were a key source of support for many people during the COVID-19 pandemic, with governments across the globe scaling up or introducing such payments. </p>
<p>Brazil, for example, introduced the <a href="https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099255012142121495/p1748361b302ee5718913146b11956610692e4faf5bc">Auxílio Emergencial</a> programme, while the US implemented <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/stimulus-payments-child-tax-credit-expansion-were-critical-parts-of-successful#_ftn2">Economic Impact Payments</a>. Both cash transfer programmes aimed to shield vulnerable populations. This was also not exclusive to middle- and high-income countries. Togo, for instance, implemented the <a href="https://poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Togo-Novissi-Cash-Transfer-Brief-August%202021.pdf">Novissi</a> cash transfer programme during the pandemic.</p>
<p>Using cash payments to protect people’s livelihoods and lift the poor out of poverty is <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/7171/chapter-abstract/151773057?redirectedFrom=fulltext">not a novel strategy</a>. It can be a simple way to provide basic social protection to people in need, helping citizens to withstand sudden shocks and also facilitating their recovery after a crisis.</p>
<h2>Cash assistance as financial burden?</h2>
<p>But cash transfers still attract a lot of debate. Besides typical concerns like creating dependency and <a href="https://izajodm.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40176-018-0131-9">reducing labour supply</a>, these programmes are costly. This can cause concern about their sustainability and hinder the initial implementation and scale-up. </p>
<p>For example, the Social Assistance Grants for Empowerment programme in Uganda in 2010 became <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/dpr.12474">so politicised</a> that it was challenged every step of the way to its implementation and later expansion. Even before its pilot programme, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/dpr.12474">concerns</a> regarding its financial sustainability and the potential creation of welfare dependencies were raised by politicians. </p>
<p>During periods of economic crisis, austerity policies can also directly influence social assistance initiatives. After the 2010 economic crisis, for example, Greece initially suspended and subsequently terminated its housing benefit programme, attributing this decision to <a href="https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/10314.pdf">budget constraints</a>.</p>
<p>But cash transfer programmes aren’t “handouts”. The positive impacts on the people that receive them are <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-social-policy/article/abs/impact-of-cash-transfers-a-review-of-the-evidence-from-low-and-middleincome-countries/F8273371A30A504CBDCAFA32BF6F2EAD">well documented</a>. They are powerful instruments for strengthening <a href="https://voxdev.org/topic/social-protection/building-resilience-through-social-protection-evidence-malawi">household resilience</a> and fostering opportunities that can extend beyond the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41287-021-00488-9">immediate recipients</a>.</p>
<h2>The multiplier effect</h2>
<p>There is another vital element of social cash transfers that most people aren’t aware of: the economic multiplier effect. In a recent <a href="https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099452507272341291/idu03fcef4630f1c60401209a260398108681817">study</a> with Ugo Gentilini, Giorgia Valleriani and Yuko Okamura of the World Bank, and Giulio Bordon of the UN’s International Labour Organization, we found the multiplier effect can greatly enhance the financial sustainability of social cash transfer programmes.</p>
<p>The core concept is that every dollar transferred that is spent rather than saved can increase the total income in the economy beyond its original value. </p>
<p>Consider a smallholder farmer who uses some of her grant to buy fertiliser at the local market. The local merchant profits from it and then spends this additional income, increasing profits for someone else and setting off a ripple effect through the economy. These taxable gains go beyond the people that get the payment, effectively “multiplying” the original grant’s worth for the economy. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Family stand outside home, woman and boy in background smiling, girl in foreground smiling and holding a Bolsa Familia card." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562792/original/file-20231130-21-3s7gx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/562792/original/file-20231130-21-3s7gx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562792/original/file-20231130-21-3s7gx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562792/original/file-20231130-21-3s7gx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562792/original/file-20231130-21-3s7gx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562792/original/file-20231130-21-3s7gx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/562792/original/file-20231130-21-3s7gx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brazil’s Bolsa Família programme has had a multiplier effect on the country’s economy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tocantins-brazilapril-252012-families-benefited-bolsa-2173682201">Bruno Cesar Spada/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Investing in the entire economy</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099452507272341291/idu03fcef4630f1c60401209a260398108681817">reviewed 23 studies</a> of 19 cash assistance programmes across 13 countries and found substantial evidence of this multiplier effect from social cash transfers.</p>
<p>In Brazil, for example, Bolsa Família, the current national social welfare programme of Brazil and one of the largest cash transfer programmes in the world, was found to increase real GDP per R$1 (£0.16) spent by <a href="https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=5602">R$1.04</a>. This is a small but positive spillover into the Brazilian economy. </p>
<p>Another noteworthy example is the GiveDirectly initiative in rural western Kenya, a pilot programme that offered a US$1,000 (£791) one-off transfer to 10,500 poor households. This programme led to a strong positive economic shock with a multiplier of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.3982/ECTA17945">2.5 per US$1</a>. So, every US$1 transferred generated a value of US$2.50 locally – a strong positive spillover to the local economy.</p>
<p>Social cash transfers have the potential to not only support the poor and vulnerable, but also to stimulate the wider economy. Rather than simply accepting the general perception of social transfers as an expense, we should start recognising their true value as an investment in a country’s entire economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:franziska.gassmann@maastrichtuniversity.nl">franziska.gassmann@maastrichtuniversity.nl</a> is affiliated with UNU-MERIT and Maastricht University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Conrad Nunnenmacher and Julieta Morais do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cash transfers have emerged as an essential part of social protection systems globally, most recently during COVID lockdowns.Conrad Nunnenmacher, PhD Research Fellow, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityFranziska Gassmann, Professor of Social Protection and Development, Maastricht UniversityJulieta Morais, Researcher in Social Protection, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189812023-12-12T08:55:11Z2023-12-12T08:55:11ZHuman trafficking, sexual abuse and exploitation: the ‘loss and damage’ from climate change a fund will not compensate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564873/original/file-20231211-23-wvorvb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1280%2C852&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A child's doll discarded during a storm.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Violence against women and children, including sexual abuse and exploitation, remains a taboo subject in the policy debates attended by international delegates at COP28, the latest round of the UN climate negotiations in Dubai. However, the connections between climate change and gender-based violence, including human trafficking, are real and already blight lives worldwide.</p>
<p>Countries at COP28 have agreed to set up a loss and damage fund which would pay poor nations for the irreparable harm caused by the deteriorating climate. How can we compensate <a href="https://theconversation.com/mental-health-distress-in-the-wake-of-bangladesh-cyclone-shows-the-devastation-of-climate-related-loss-and-damage-171712">non-economic loss and damage</a> – the impacts of climate change that cannot be easily measured in monetary terms? </p>
<p>To answer this question, we must understand how these impacts already affect people in the world’s most vulnerable regions. By <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03624-y">interviewing</a> people in Bangladesh, Fiji and Vanuatu, we found that climate change is a trigger that can worsen, intensify or prolong the perpetration of violence and coercive control.</p>
<h2>Entrapment in Bangladesh</h2>
<p>Among the girls and young women I spoke to in Bangladesh, child marriage was a common coping mechanism for the lost income and insecure food supplies associated with unpredictable weather. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101904">Storms</a>, punishing heat and unreliable rain made migration from the countryside to cities inevitable. Many migrant women and girls turned to work in the garment industry. In the factories and nearby dwellings, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0207485">violence</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.2147/ijwh.s137250">poor mental health</a> are especially common for female migrant workers.</p>
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<img alt="Aerial view of a slum with high-rise buildings bordering it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563753/original/file-20231205-15-o8sdvu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bhola slum in Dhaka. Most residents migrated from Bangladesh’s disaster-prone southern coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hunger has pushed numerous households to marry off their daughters and sisters. Belkis, a woman I <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1777078">interviewed</a>, described how her family struggled with poverty and health issues during her childhood after they migrated from the southern coast of Bangladesh to the capital Dhaka, escaping <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100237">cyclones</a> and land erosion:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I got married when I was 12 years old. A few years later I gave birth to my first son. I faced a lot of problems giving birth to him … A woman from work was a doctor so she took me to Dhaka Medical Hospital. There they did some tests and noticed that my kidneys were failing.</p>
</blockquote>
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<p>Her sons may also need to leave school and start working. If she has a daughter, she may be forced to marry as a child. Harsh living and working conditions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-0443-2">scar the health and wellbeing</a> of entire families – but hit women and children hardest.</p>
<h2>Child sexual exploitation and trafficking in Fiji</h2>
<p>Unrest swept Fiji in 2021 after a ten-year-old girl on Vanua Levu, one of the islands in the north east, was raped by her uncle in a cyclone shelter. He was sentenced to 14 years imprisonment. </p>
<p>The incident was not an isolated event. Women we spoke to in Nadi, a city on Fiji’s main island, describe rapes in shelters and report children being trafficked for sexual purposes after the floods.</p>
<p>Overcrowded shelters create unsafe conditions. Many of the toilets have windows but no doors, let alone locks. Disaster evaluation reports also indicate that many emergency responders in Fiji lack necessary training to identify signs of abuse (sexual or otherwise) and so are unable to prevent further violence. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A boy sat surrounded by corrugated iron pouring a bucket of water over his head." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563775/original/file-20231205-23-12w9aw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Informal sanitation can be a safety risk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lusi*, a Red Cross health coordinator, said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Women are more vulnerable to violence in the wake of cyclones. In tents and makeshift shelters, there’s a lack of privacy and proper lighting, which makes it harder to stay safe.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Nasele*, a 22-year old woman that we interviewed in Nadi, explained:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In the dark [women] have to go out and this places [them] in unsafe conditions. In evacuation centres, women and children get exposed to sexual dangers – children’s rights are ignored. In this country, disaster management [offers no] quick recovery for women and children.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Nacanieli*, a Save the Children officer working in Nadi observed trafficking, sexual exploitation and violence:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The woman moved her family to Nadi to live with her new [Australian] husband. One year later, she returned to our office and told the SCF staff [that]…her new husband had moved the family to Australia and upon their arrival they were held captive in his house. She told me about the sexual exploitation of her oldest daughter (she was 14 years old at the time). …The woman was too scared to go to the police and lived in fear while in Australia. She and her children eventually fled the country with the help of a neighbour. The oldest daughter is now involved in prostitution in Nadi … We saw the scars of what looked like needle marks and cigarette burns on the woman and all four of her children.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In recent years, tourist hotspots such as Nadi in Fiji have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03624-y">seen a peak</a> in child sexual abuse, trafficking and exploitation, primarily by perpetrators from Australia, New Zealand, the US and Europe.</p>
<h2>Loss and healing in Vanuatu</h2>
<p>Women in Vanuatu found recovery and healing in their social networks, which stuck together and aided their recovery from cyclones and drought. The women ensured there was support for the most in need, such as widows and people living with disabilities.</p>
<p>Women and children may be more vulnerable, but they should not be seen as passive victims. In Vanuatu, ideals that are typically considered to be feminine traits – such as inclusiveness and caring for the weak – were strengths that supported the entire population’s <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781032275611-25/women-stories-loss-recovery-climatic-events-pacific-islands-rachel-clissold-karen-mcnamara">recovery</a> from natural hazards.</p>
<p>Research such as ours gathers local experiences of non-economic loss and damage. Despite this, few climate change studies apply similar people-centred approaches.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A girl decorating her friend's arm with henna." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/563770/original/file-20231205-19-21gzl6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vanuatu’s woman-led recovery networks are a model for post-disaster mutual aid.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is a problem because loss and damage is never entirely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03053-9">environmental</a>. As well as the destruction of land, crops or livestock, loss and damage must come to include child marriage, sexual violence, coercive and controlling behaviour, human trafficking and exploitation. </p>
<p>By widening our understanding of what loss and damage means, we can support more people more thoroughly. We must all learn from the women in Vanuatu by caring for those in need and healing collectively from the trauma of climate-related violence.</p>
<p>Losses and damages to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102594">wellbeing</a> and dignity can never be wholly measured and compensated within a market.</p>
<p><em>*Aliases were used to protect people’s identity.</em></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218981/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson receives funding from The Modern Slavery and Human Rights Policy and Evidence Centre led by the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law and is funded by the Art and Humanities Research Council on behalf of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).</span></em></p>Though hard to quantify, the social consequences of climate change are vast.Dr Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Associate Professor in Policy and Intersectionality, UCL & Honorary Senior Researcher, United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2185642023-12-01T14:06:48Z2023-12-01T14:06:48ZArgentina’s Brexit: why new president Milei is threatening to pull out of South America’s common market<p>Javier Milei, who was elected as <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-election-of-javier-milei-and-the-challenges-of-an-impoverished-argentina-218230">Argentina’s new president</a> on November 19, has promised to withdraw from the South American “common market”, <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/will-this-be-the-year-mercosur-breaks/">Mercosur</a>.</p>
<p>This decision could have significant economic and social repercussions for Argentina, potentially similar to when the UK pulled out of the EU. Mercosur has some similarities <a href="https://ecipe.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ECI_21_PolicyBrief_15_2021_LY01.pdf">to the EU </a>. For instance, nationals of nine South American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay and Uruguay) <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/free-movement-south-america-emergence-alternative-model">enjoy</a> the right to enter, reside and work in all of the above countries.</p>
<p>Those rights are enshrined in the Mercosur Residence Agreements, which were adopted <a href="https://eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/11/is-free-movement-in-europe-anomaly-new.html">in 2002</a> and came into force in 2009. Between 2009 and 2021, over 3.6 million South Americans obtained residence permits allowing them to live in other countries through the Mercosur agreements, <a href="https://www.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/oim_fem_informe_anual_2022.pdf">according to the International Organization for Migration</a>.</p>
<p>Argentina played a crucial role in the adoption of these agreements. They resulted from an Argentinian proposal to establish a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3529143">permanent mechanism</a> for citizens of Mercosur countries to gain access to legal residence in other nations. For the past 20 years, Argentina has also played a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/01979183221142776">leading role</a> in regional migration policy.</p>
<p>Its 2004 migration law, <a href="https://www.acnur.org/fileadmin/Documentos/BDL/2012/8460.pdf">which has been praised by the UN as a model</a>, has had significant influence on migration law in other countries in the region. </p>
<p>Mercosur was established in 1991. Every country in the region is either a full or an associate member state. It seeks to deepen economic and trade <a href="https://ojs.econ.uba.ar/index.php/LATSUR/article/view/2556/3347">integration</a> among its members, to grow cooperation on <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1468018118780085">social</a> policies and serve as a <a href="https://ri.conicet.gov.ar/handle/11336/157391">common platform</a> for global geopolitics to create a <a href="http://www.scielo.edu.uy/scielo.php?pid=S1688-499X2019000100249&script=sci_arttext">common approach to some international issues</a>, such as migration and trade. </p>
<p>Mercosur and the EU have also been negotiating a trade agreement for years, but it is not yet clear if it will be <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/11/21/victory-of-argentinas-milei-could-scupper-eu-mercosur-trade-deal">ratified</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-argentinian-president-javier-milei-promises-to-take-a-chainsaw-to-countrys-crippled-economy-218155">New Argentinian president Javier Milei promises to 'take a chainsaw' to country's crippled economy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why pull out?</h2>
<p>Against this backdrop, it is worth considering the motivations for Milei’s proposal to leave Mercosur, its possible repercussions and the procedure that would need to be followed.</p>
<p>Milei, a self-proclaimed <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-argentinian-president-javier-milei-promises-to-take-a-chainsaw-to-countrys-crippled-economy-218155">anarcho-capitalist libertarian</a>, who advocates for minimal state intervention and the adoption of the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/c1d7dm4j9p9o">US dollar as Argentina’s currency</a>, has proposed Argentina leave international and intergovernmental organisations. These include the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china-reaffirms-support-new-nations-joining-brics-argentina-signals-rejection-2023-11-20/">Brics</a> (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) community, which it was invited to join by 2024, and the Union of South American Nations (<a href="https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/riesgo-para-la-patria-grande-lula-y-maduro-transmitieron-su-preocupacion-al-gobierno-por-el-ascenso-nid21082023/">Unasur</a>), which it rejoined in 2023. </p>
<p>According to Milei, neither the state, nor supranational and regional organisations, should interfere with free trade. For this reason, Milei described Mercosur as a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDs6FleQL10">hindrance</a>. </p>
<p>Argentina would face three significant challenges, if it were to leave. First, Mercosur has provided stability in the region and a platform for Argentina to voice its ideas, interests and demands internationally. Leaving the organisation would, therefore, weaken Argentina’s ability to address shared regional and global challenges, isolating the country from the rest of the region and the world. </p>
<p>Second, this could affect the functioning of the residence agreements mentioned earlier, making it harder for Argentinians to work in other South American countries and vice versa. It is worth noting that <a href="https://www.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/2022/12/caracterizacion_de_la_migracion_internacional_en_argentina_a_partir_de_los_registros_administrativos_del_renaper_dnp.pdf">around 80% </a> of migrants to Argentina originate from other parts of South America. In addition to that, more than <a href="https://datosmacro.expansion.com/demografia/migracion/emigracion/argentina">300,000 Argentinians</a> live in other South American countries and their rights could be affected by such a decision.</p>
<p>Third, this would also have a cost for the Argentine economy. Mercosur accounts for <a href="https://www.indec.gob.ar/ftp/ica_digital/ica_d_09_2343A1E77713/">almost 25% of all Argentine exports</a> and intra-<a href="https://www.mercosur.int/semana-del-mercosur-estadisticas/#:%7E:text=El%20Comercio%20Intrazona%20%5B4%5D%20del,%25%20y%20Uruguay%20con%208%25">regional trade has been growing in the last years </a>.</p>
<p><strong>Argentina’s trade partners, by country</strong></p>
<p>Finally, Article 21 of Mercosur’s 1991 founding treaty requires any state wanting to leave the agreement to formally communicate it to the other member states 60 days before leaving. As well as this, Argentina’s constitution requires an absolute majority vote in both the <a href="https://pdba.georgetown.edu/Constitutions/Argentina/argen94_e.html">Congress and Senate</a> to make such a move.</p>
<p>It is worth mentioning that the president-elect’s party and allies do not even hold a <a href="https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/argentina/como-quedaria-la-representacion-de-milei-en-el-congreso-con-el-apoyo-del-pro/">simple majority</a>, in either of the chambers, the deputies and Senate. However, the president does have, on many issues, the legal power to bypass <a href="https://revistaresenha.emnuvens.com.br/revista/article/view/71">Congress by issuing executive decrees</a>.</p>
<p>In the days after the election, Milei and his newly appointed ministers softened some of the more radical proposals in their agenda. For instance, the minister of foreign affairs designate Diana Mondino recently declared that Argentina “will not obstruct the Mercosur-EU Agreement” and will <a href="https://www.clarin.com/politica/mondino-dijo-disparate-hablar-relacion-tensa-brasil-aseguro-firma-acuerdo-mercosur-union-europea-cerca_0_Y73CZjlGBU.html">maintain good relations with Brazil</a>, <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1331248/main-trade-partners-argentina/">Argentina’s main trade partner</a> and the most significant economy in South America. But Mondino has confirmed that Argentina will <a href="https://buenosairesherald.com/politics/diana-mondino-we-will-not-join-brics">not join Brics</a>.</p>
<p>This suggests that Milei may have to tone down his more radical ideas in line with political and legal realities. Clearly they were intended to attract an electorate that is deeply unhappy with the previous government’s economic mismanagement and the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/imfs-argentina-predicament-seek-reforms-tango-or-kill-music-2023-09-15/">current economic crisis</a>. </p>
<p>The rest of South America will be closely monitoring the political developments of a country that still leads regional agendas on current issues of global relevance, such as climate change and migration, to see which way it will turn.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218564/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diego Acosta, receives funding from Open Society Foundations. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leiza Brumat receives funding from the Province of Bolzano: (Contributo
per la promozione della mobilita internazionale di ricercatrici e ricercatori-bando 2021’ Decreto 20771/2021)</span></em></p>The right of Argentinians to work and travel looks to be under threat, as the new president threatens to leave a regional agreement.Diego Acosta, Director of the Global Chair Nebrija-Santander on Migration and Human Rights, at Nebrija University in Madrid, Professor in Law, University of BristolLeiza Brumat, Senior Research Fellow at Eurac Research, Associate Research Fellow, Institute for Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU-CRIS), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2159142023-11-16T14:47:22Z2023-11-16T14:47:22ZDevelopment aid cuts will hit fragile countries hard, could fuel violent conflict<p>Fragile and least developed countries have had <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLE2A">their development assistance</a> cut drastically, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. For instance, net official development assistance to sub-Saharan African countries has shrunk by <a href="https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLE2A">7.8% compared to 2021</a>. And <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dac/peace-official-development-assistance.pdf">development aid for peace and conflict prevention</a> has declined to its lowest in 15 years. </p>
<p>These cuts will hit <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dac/states-of-fragility-fa5a6770-en.htm">fragile countries</a> hard. Fragile countries make up 24% of the world’s population and account for <a href="https://www.oecd.org/dac/states-of-fragility-fa5a6770-en.htm">73% of the world’s extreme poor</a>. The list includes Mali, Lebanon, Somalia, Syria and Iraq.</p>
<p>Budget cuts are already having far-reaching effects and fuelling humanitarian crises. The World Food Programme estimates that “<a href="https://www.wfp.org/news/new-wfp-analysis-shows-every-1-cut-food-assistance-pushes-400000-people-emergency-hunger">every one percent cut in food assistance risks pushing more than 400,000 people towards the brink of starvation</a>”.</p>
<p>UN secretary-general António Guterres has <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/05/1118182">warned</a> that aid cuts threaten to undo gains in development. Keeping in mind that <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects">poverty has increased in conflict-affected countries despite a global downward trend</a>, we anticipate that such a reversal could contribute to global instability. </p>
<p>Violent conflict has already been on the rise among countries that rely heavily on <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch">foreign financial assistance</a>. Decades of research (including ours) show that marginalised populations are <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/25654408">most vulnerable to be (re-)mobilised into fighting</a> and are typically also <a href="https://repository.essex.ac.uk/31090/">most affected by armed conflict</a> (even after violence ends).</p>
<p>It is true that political and societal context matters and needs to be taken into account. But the reduction in aid allocation to least developed countries and <a href="https://repository.essex.ac.uk/31090/">especially those recovering from violent conflict</a> could put fragile countries on a trajectory of (renewed) political instability and underdevelopment. Already vulnerable populations will have to yet again carry the brunt of new cycles of violence and impoverishment.</p>
<p>We have been researching links between development and violent conflict for decades and close to a decade, respectively. Our latest research project is on the <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/project/institutional-legacies-violent-conflict">institutional legacies of violent conflict</a>. It shows how and why violent conflicts persist, how and why their legacies endure, and what can be done to reduce the risk and impact of violence. We recommend that development aid needs to correspond more closely with mounting peacebuilding and humanitarian needs in fragile settings.</p>
<h2>The impact</h2>
<p>Not all development aid <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00220388.2018.1487053?casa_token=QZ0K9qzIAHcAAAAA:RW6S9v2lP_EbHca4KngMwbO_lPPqdoULXTi9CBe06Vehr-1X3rk6FGw_kERh4QoSJ9R_PAqyOJvt%22%22">is effective</a> in bringing stability or building peace. Nevertheless, based on our analysis, development aid plays a crucial role in six key areas.</p>
<p>Firstly, development aid is effective when linked to the delivery of public services. These in turn <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00220388.2018.1487053?casa_token=QZ0K9qzIAHcAAAAA:RW6S9v2lP_EbHca4KngMwbO_lPPqdoULXTi9CBe06Vehr-1X3rk6FGw_kERh4QoSJ9R_PAqyOJvt">strengthen the social contract</a> and mitigate the risk of violence.</p>
<p>Secondly, financial assistance can help governments absorb the effects of <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/glossary/e/economic-shock">economic shocks</a>. Economies across the global south are already stifled by the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, climate risks and the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine. Fragile countries often rely on assistance to meet some of their population’s most basic needs such as food or water. </p>
<p>Without additional financial assistance many governments will not be able to manage their way through these shocks. That may <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2023/04/17/the-worlds-deadliest-war-last-year-wasnt-in-ukraine">embolden violent non-state actors to gain power</a>. </p>
<p>Two examples stand out. In west Africa <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa-sahel/could-jihadists-seize-parts-coastal-west-africa">violent non-state actors operating in the Sahel region</a> are set to expand their influence into new areas considered stable thus far, such as the <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/cote-divoire/b192-keeping-jihadists-out-northern-cote-divoire">north of Côte d’Ivoire</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, the current <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/israelpalestine">Israel-Palestine conflict</a> risks spreading instability into neighbouring countries amid longstanding tensions and <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/09/debt-clouds-over-the-middle-east-adnan-mazarei">economic fragility</a>. </p>
<p>Thirdly, cuts in development aid may reduce the limited leverage western countries still have to prevent the rise of opportunistic armed groups such as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/world/europe/prigozhin-wagner-russia-africa.html">Wagner Group</a>, the spread of extremism and the risk of civil conflicts. </p>
<p>The Sahel region is also emblematic for this dynamic. <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/watch-list-2023-spring-update">Mali and Burkina Faso</a> have seen the deadliest year on record as their military transitional governments struggle to contain jihadist insurgencies. Since the <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/08/31/niger-coup-s-outsized-global-impact-pub-90463">recent military coup in Niger</a>, which prompted withdrawal of both <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-07/niger-expects-2023-budget-to-shrink-40-after-coup-suspends-aid#xj4y7vzkg">aid</a> and <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/10/10/french-troops-begin-withdrawal-from-niger_6161327_4.html">international troops</a>, the country has also experienced <a href="https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-extremists-be2573981d463e0b4498e32a3f8ba75e">a surge in militant violence</a>. </p>
<p>Fourth, worsening economic and security conditions in fragile and least developed countries are already reverberating into Europe. There have been <a href="https://dtm.iom.int/europe/arrivals">spikes in irregular border crossings into European Union countries in 2023</a>. </p>
<p>Fifth, rising discrepancy in development aid allocation could amplify <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/08/russia-ukraine-war-west-global-south-diplomacy-un-putin-g20/">mistrust in international institutions and western actors</a>. That could contribute to worsening security situations. Some governments in fragile countries are already reluctant to continue to engage with the UN and especially western actors to combat violent non-state actors. </p>
<p>An example of this is the Democratic Republic of Congo’s recent request to the UN for an <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/great-lakes/democratic-republic-congo/massacre-goma-clouds-dr-congos-elections-and-un">“accelerated” withdrawal of troops</a>. It comes 24 years after the start of Monusco, the UN’s peacekeeping mission in DRC, one of the largest in the world. <a href="https://acleddata.com/2023/09/21/fact-sheet-attacks-on-civilians-spike-in-mali-as-security-deteriorates-across-the-sahel/">Violence may increase in the absence of such international intervention</a>, as has happened since <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/mali/minusma-closes-its-camp-kidal-marking-end-its-presence-region#:%7E:text=Mali-,MINUSMA%20closes%20its%20camp%20in%20Kidal%2C%20marking%20the%20end,its%20presence%20in%20the%20region&text=Bamako%2C%20October%2031%2C%202023%20%2D,by%20air%20and%20land%20convoy.">the withdrawal of Minusma</a>, the UN mission that was in Mali for ten years.</p>
<p>Sixth, the reduction in aid allocation to least developed countries and <a href="https://repository.essex.ac.uk/31090/">especially those recovering from violent conflict</a> could result in continued political <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/project/institutional-legacies-violent-conflict">instability and underdevelopment</a>. </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>Development funding should be allocated in a way that corresponds more closely with peacebuilding and humanitarian needs. This is also made clear in the <a href="https://dppa.un.org/en/a-new-agenda-for-peace">UN’s New Agenda for Peace</a>. It calls for action now to </p>
<blockquote>
<p>reinforce the cooperative frameworks that are necessary to move us from the path to destruction to the path to prosperity … based on a reforged commitment to multilateral solutions, grounded on trust, solidarity and universality.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Correcting course in aid allocation could address some of the growing mistrust among developing countries and support prospects for peace.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215914/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricia Justino receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura Saavedra-Lux does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cuts in development aid could contribute to global instability; violent conflict is already on the rise in countries that rely heavily on foreign assistancePatricia Justino, Professor and Deputy Director, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations UniversityLaura Saavedra-Lux, Research Associate at UNU-WIDER, United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2133102023-10-24T13:12:46Z2023-10-24T13:12:46ZHIV-positive parents in Zimbabwe struggle to manage their children’s education – study shows how<p>Over the past three decades researchers have explored various aspects of the impact of the HIV pandemic. One focus area has been children who have lost their parents to AIDS. Less attention has been given to children who are raised by parents living with HIV. This group has become much bigger as more people have <a href="https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestories/2021/september/20210906_global-roll-out-hiv-treatment">access to antiretroviral therapy</a> and are therefore expected to raise their children. </p>
<p>Our research in Zimbabwe looked at the effects the HIV status of parents had on their children’s education. </p>
<p>In Zimbabwe, the current HIV prevalence rate among adults is about <a href="https://www.unicef.org/zimbabwe/hivaids">13%</a>. In 1997 it was at its peak at <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20406793/">29.3%</a>. Nevertheless, Zimbabwe still has the <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/270209/countries-with-the-highest-global-hiv-prevalence/#:%7E:text=Among%20all%20countries%20worldwide%20those,rate%20of%20almost%2026%20percent.%20**link%20is%20behind%20a%20paywall**">sixth highest HIV rate</a> in the world. Eswatini has the highest rate (19.58%) and South Africa ranks fourth (14.75%).</p>
<p>Our research focused on mothers in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital city, who had access to treatment. We were interested in the impact of HIV on their investment in their children’s education. We conducted <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00346764.2023.2214126">interviews</a> at <a href="http://mashambanzou.co.zw/">Mashambanzou Care Trust</a>, a local non-profit organisation that provides care to about 5,000 HIV-positive low-income individuals in Harare. Thirteen HIV-positive mothers were interviewed to discuss the key reasons behind the disruption of their children’s schooling .</p>
<p>We found that the HIV status of low-income parents in Zimbabwe severely affected their children’s education, in four ways.</p>
<p>Firstly, HIV worsened the financial barriers parents faced when trying to get their children educated. Secondly, children missed school because they needed to take care of sick parents or siblings. Thirdly, sick parents were not involved with their children’s <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00346764.2023.2214126">academic achievement</a> because they were physically, mentally and emotionally incapable of helping. Lastly, children of HIV-positive mothers did not always have birth certificates, a major barrier to school and exam registration in Zimbabwe.</p>
<h2>Financial barriers</h2>
<p>The research showed that HIV in Zimbabwe is not only a health issue but also a socioeconomic problem that can force people into <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00346764.2023.2214126">poverty traps</a>. </p>
<p>HIV-positive women expressed the view that the Zimbabwean economy, their partner’s health and their own health affected how they supported their children’s educational needs. </p>
<p>We found children with parents who could not afford to pay school fees or buy school uniforms could be sent home until the payments were made. Other low income families experienced this too but parents with HIV could not work and so had more difficulty paying school fees.</p>
<p>HIV-affected families could also face the burden of raising other children from deceased or ill family members. Some of the mothers had siblings and close family members who had died of AIDS. In one case, a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00346764.2023.2214126">single HIV-positive mother </a> had three biological children and three orphans from relatives.</p>
<h1>Missing school</h1>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00346764.2023.2214126">Girls</a> were particularly affected because they were expected to care for siblings, help sick parents with daily activities such as eating and toileting, and make sure they had a place to live and food to eat. </p>
<p>Mothers spoke about the heavy burden their daughters had to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00346764.2023.2214126">carry</a>. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>My eldest child was the one who took care of me and cooked for me. When I got sick, my daughter stopped going to school. She is the one who took the responsibility of taking care of me. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Some children were forced to drop out of school to earn an income. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>He dropped out of school after finishing his Form 3. He is currently selling bananas at Mbare and the money he is getting is not enough. Most of the time he brings home some food after selling bananas. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>No time to help</h2>
<p>Most HIV-positive mothers told us that they did not <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00346764.2023.2214126">spend time</a> with their children because they spent a lot of time on income-generating activities, attending to their own health, or their husband’s health. These tough conditions led to even more illness and stress.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>All my seven children stay at home as none of them is in school right now. Each day of their lives is difficult as in some cases we fail to get some food to eat. After having failed to get food for the family, it then stresses me more as the mother. Given my condition that I am HIV-positive I end up getting continuous headaches and sometimes I get sick as a result of the stress. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Birth certificates</h2>
<p>Some HIV-positive parents were too sick to obtain birth certificates for their <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00346764.2023.2214126">children</a>. Without birth certificates, children risk being sent home and cannot benefit from programmes that target poor children. One mother told of trying to get birth certificates for her children in Mutare, almost 300 kilometres away from Harare.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I once went to Mutare to secure birth certificates for my children. I was told to bring my national identification card which was in Harare during that time. I am yet to go back to Mutare and collect birth certificates for my children. I am only being stopped from travelling because I am currently sick and receiving treatment. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Looking to the future</h2>
<p>Our research highlights a vulnerable group of children who should also benefit from social assistance programmes that target HIV-affected orphans, given that their parents are too sick to care for them. </p>
<p>They should be included in the <a href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajsw/article/view/194113#:%7E:text=Zimbabwe%20adopted%20the%20National%20Orphan,social%20safety%20nets%20for%20OVC.">National Orphan Care Policy</a>, which seeks to provide basic care and protection to orphans and vulnerable children, and the <a href="https://www.unicef.org/esa/media/11846/file/Unicef_Zimbabwe_Education_Budget_Brief_2022.pdf">Basic Education Assistance Module</a>, which pays school fees for this group of children.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213310/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tatenda Zinyemba does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some children of HIV-positive parents drop out of school to look after their mothers and fathers. Others skip class to earn cash for the family by selling goods.Tatenda Zinyemba, Researcher in Economics, Health and Governance, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology, United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145052023-09-29T15:08:09Z2023-09-29T15:08:09ZSuella Braverman is wrong about the UN refugee convention being ‘not fit for purpose’ – here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551126/original/file-20230929-19-9hxi8o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=108%2C62%2C5067%2C3383&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The convention protects the rights of refugees around the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/migrants-walk-towards-turkeys-pazarkule-border-1830065513">Lumiereist/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK’s home secretary, Suella Braverman – the minister responsible for setting immigration policy – has said the United Nations <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/au/about-unhcr/who-we-are/1951-refugee-convention">refugee convention</a> is not “fit for our modern age” and should be renegotiated.</p>
<p>As researchers of migration at the United Nations University, we know the importance of the convention – a landmark agreement that underpins the human rights of people around the world. Braverman’s comments <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66919416">to an American think tank</a> do not reflect reality. </p>
<p>The refugee convention (formally, the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees) was established by the UN to protect the millions of people displaced in Europe after the second world war. It was expanded beyond Europe <a href="https://www.kaldorcentre.unsw.edu.au/publication/1967-protocol">with its 1967 protocol</a>, which applied the convention’s protections to all refugees around the world.</p>
<p>The convention lays out the definition of who counts as a refugee. It also sets out their rights (such as to housing, work and education), and how states are obliged to support them. For the <a href="https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=IND&mtdsg_no=V-5&chapter=5">149 countries</a> who have joined (including the UK), it is the legal basis for how they create policy and support refugees.</p>
<p>A central principle of the convention is what is known as “<a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/principle-non-refoulement-migration-context-5-key-points">non-refoulement</a>”. This means a refugee cannot be sent to a country where they might suffer persecution, nor to a country which might send them to such a country. When groups such as the UN refugee agency say the UK’s policy to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/uk/media/unhcr-analysis-legality-and-appropriateness-transfer-asylum-seekers-under-uk-rwanda">violates international law</a>, this is the law they are referring to. </p>
<h2>Who is a refugee?</h2>
<p>To be considered a refugee, according to the convention, a person must have crossed an international border due to persecution (and a lack of protection from their own state). </p>
<p>While the convention does not define “persecution”, the UN refugee agency <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/media/handbook-procedures-and-criteria-determining-refugee-status-under-1951-convention-and-1967">describes it</a> as a “threat to life or freedom”, specifically due to reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion. </p>
<p>The lack of <a href="https://freemovement.org.uk/what-is-the-legal-meaning-of-refugee/">clear definitions</a> for some of these terms has been seen as a shortcoming of the convention. It can lead to variation in how states interpret what should be considered “persecution”. </p>
<p>Braverman <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66919416">waded into this</a>, arguing that the modern interpretation of persecution is “more akin” to discrimination: “We will not be able to sustain an asylum system if in effect, simply being gay, or a woman, and fearful of discrimination in your country of origin is sufficient to qualify for protection.” </p>
<h2>Discrimination and persecution</h2>
<p>In her speech, Braverman cited claims made by the <a href="https://cps.org.uk/research/stopping-the-crossings/">Centre for Policy Studies</a> that at least 780 million people might be eligible for refugee status under the convention. This figure appears to be partly based on summing the number of people living in countries where homosexuality is outlawed.</p>
<p>But it is highly unrealistic that all of these people will move and seek asylum elsewhere. We know that many people in such situations never leave their own countries, because it is often <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jrs/article/34/4/4262/6135659">very difficult, dangerous and expensive</a> to do so.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Braverman suggested that the convention provides overly generous protection and will lead to an unsustainable caseload of refugees. This is misleading for several reasons. </p>
<p>The convention itself does not explicitly address gender identity or sexual orientation as grounds for persecution, so it’s largely up to national governments how they assess such cases. The UK Home Office states in its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sexual-identity-issues-in-the-asylum-claim">guidance for asylum case workers</a> that “someone could face societal discrimination but this will not amount to persecution […unless…] the discrimination has resulted in sufficiently serious consequences for the person concerned”. </p>
<p>Braverman’s comments <a href="https://www.thepinknews.com/2023/09/26/suella-braverman-lgbtq-refugee-asylum-seeker/">downplay the oppresion</a> that LGBTQ+ people face in many countries, where they are at risk of <a href="https://freemovement.org.uk/lgbt-people-face-persecution-and-are-no-less-deserving-of-protection">violence, imprisonment, or even death</a>. </p>
<p>They also overplay the role of LGBTQ+ people in asylum migration. In reality, cases related to sexual orientation make up a small proportion of asylum claims in the UK: only 1,334 people, or 2% of <a href="https://freemovement.org.uk/lgbt-people-face-persecution-and-are-no-less-deserving-of-protection/">all asylum applications</a>, in 2022. </p>
<h2>Misleading migration figures</h2>
<p>When it comes to migration, politicians have a tendency to use and reproduce, or misinterpret numbers which are not necessarily based upon reliable or rigorous research.</p>
<p>It is not true, for example, that North America and Europe are
currently witnessing <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/blog/europes-refugee-crisis-not-big-youve-heard-and-not-without-recent-precedent">record numbers</a> of refugees. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35874178/">Recent research</a> shows that since the creation of the refugee convention in 1951, the number of refugees worldwide has fluctuated between 0.1% and 0.3% of the global population. At the end of 2022 there were approximately <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/">35 million refugees</a> out of a total of 108 million people who were internally or internationally displaced.</p>
<p>Some people claim that climate change will lead to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ecology-global-risks-idUSKBN2600K4">billions</a> of climate migrants – the convention does not address environmental factors, so the term “climate refugee” does not <a href="https://ehs.unu.edu/news/news/5-facts-on-climate-migrants.html">technically exist</a>. Additionally, these figures are based on assumptions that everyone affected will move elsewhere, something that our <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11111-019-00321-w">own research</a> has shown to be false. This simplistic understanding lies behind the kind of alarmist and unsubstantiated figures underlying Braverman’s calls for changing the convention. </p>
<p>Braverman’s speech elicited rare pushback from the UN, who <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/uk/news/press-releases/unhcr-news-comment-importance-international-refugee-convention">called for</a> “stronger and more consistent” application of the convention – not a renegotiation. We agree. Focusing on any numbers, however true, obscures the fact that <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/imig.13169">refugees</a> are people with rights, hopes, dreams and aspirations. It is thanks to the refugee convention that they are able to access their human rights, and rebuild their lives in safety and dignity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The 1951 convention underpins the human rights of people around the world.Robert Oakes, Senior Researcher, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityTalitha Dubow, Researcher, Maastricht University and Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2062582023-08-17T20:14:49Z2023-08-17T20:14:49ZThe use of AI during the COVID-19 pandemic required adapting the technology to its context<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541954/original/file-20230809-22-38clhm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C5334%2C2986&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A technological solution that uses artificial intelligence in one location may not necessarily be applicable in other contexts. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-use-of-ai-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-required-adapting-the-technology-to-its-context" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The artificial intelligence (AI) divide between industrialized and developing countries is not just about being able to access and use new technologies. It’s also about governments and local enterprises around the world being able to create their own AI tools, to both benefit from their potential and better mitigate their risks.</p>
<p>A key issue with AI that needs to be addressed is equitable ownership of AI systems, and access to benefits. This question is in line with the challenge posed by the <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2021/dsgsm1579.doc.htm">digital divide</a>, as accelerating digitization has widened the social and economic gap between those who can access the internet, and those who cannot.</p>
<p>Policies related to standardizing and regulating artificial intelligence are defined by initiatives from civil society, private sector companies and national governments. However, since 2021, there have been <a href="https://www.unesco.org/en/artificial-intelligence/recommendation-ethics">increasing efforts towards global governance</a>. Most recently, a <a href="https://www.un.org/techenvoy/content/artificial-intelligence">United Nations Multistakeholder Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence</a> was announced.</p>
<h2>Model approaches</h2>
<p>Many of the risks that have been observed in AI — discrimination, stereotyping, general lack of appropriateness for different specific geographic and cultural contexts — are due to the use of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/computer-science/computational-modeling">computational modelling</a> by AI systems. Computational modelling provides a simplified representation of reality which is then used to make predictions. </p>
<p>The use of models has a rich lineage within western thought traditions. It evokes Plato’s <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/plato/">theory of forms</a>, which suggests that the material realm is a pale imitation of the realm of concepts or forms, which represent the intangible essence. </p>
<p>Today, the word “model” is associated with a wide spectrum of ideals that we should aspire to — the term “role model” comes to mind. Even the occupation of a fashion model has evolved into an archetype to be mirrored, with professional models seen as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/asj/sjz271">representing an ideal of beauty</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542678/original/file-20230814-25-qtovj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a row of models walking down a catwalk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542678/original/file-20230814-25-qtovj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542678/original/file-20230814-25-qtovj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542678/original/file-20230814-25-qtovj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542678/original/file-20230814-25-qtovj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542678/original/file-20230814-25-qtovj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542678/original/file-20230814-25-qtovj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542678/original/file-20230814-25-qtovj2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The idea of ‘models’ has come to signify an ideal form.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The problem with models</h2>
<p>In the 1980s and 1990s, there was much criticism of the economic models promoted in developing countries by international financial institutions. These were criticized notably by American economist and Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz for using a “one-size-fits-all” <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/globalization-and-its-discontents/">approach that had adverse effects on the economies of several countries</a>.</p>
<p>Not only are the financial assets connected to AI <a href="https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2021/166/article-A001-en.xml">concentrated in a few nations</a>, but the ways of thinking about AI itself are also centralized. Most large AI models are crafted by a few companies in the United States and China, using training data that largely reflects <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/algorithmic-bias-detection-and-mitigation-best-practices-and-policies-to-reduce-consumer-harms/">their own culture</a>, and often by developers who lack an understanding of local circumstances beyond their own.</p>
<p>For example, while over one-third of the global population <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/">uses Facebook</a>, the algorithms that steer it — such as content recommendations, contact suggestions and facial recognition — were primarily devised using <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/epxeka/facebooks-new-ai-system-has-a-high-propensity-for-racism-and-bias">data accessible to American developers</a>.</p>
<p>This means that like many other flawed models in the past, biased AI models may not accurately reflect the context in which they are being applied, because the underlying data used to construct them is itself unrepresentative.</p>
<p>Over the years, the biases included in these models have become apparent. These issues range from an inability to accurately identify individuals with <a href="https://proceedings.mlr.press/v81/buolamwini18a.html">diverse skin tones</a>, to <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3980113">producing discriminatory outcomes for different groups</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2019.1606266">exclusion of specific populations</a>. </p>
<p>Such outcomes are not entirely unexpected, considering the historical and geopolitical context of the impact of models. As we’ve observed, models of various sorts — whether they pertain to economics or technology — can be <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2600942">potentially harmful if they are misapplied</a>.</p>
<h2>Localizing models</h2>
<p>AI has taken the concept of models quite far — the social and economic potential is enormous, but only if the models are calibrated properly. A pivotal solution to this revolves around the idea of model localization: the most fitting and relevant AI systems should be grounded in local contexts. </p>
<p>This requires <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1527476420957267">decolonizing data</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-020-00405-8">AI</a>. This sentiment also mirrors the growing inclination toward <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=3982421">digital sovereignty</a>, enabling nations to independently manage their digital infrastructure, hardware, networks and facilities.</p>
<p>My research on <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frai.2023.1085671/full">transplantation, adaptation and creation (TAC)</a> approaches studies the uses of AI in public health globally. During the COVID-19 pandemic, AI models were used in planning health services, communicating with the public and tracking the spread of the disease. </p>
<p>The pandemic brought into sharp focus variations in geographic and cultural landscape that required a nuanced approach to modelling. The TAC approach examines each application of AI while considering whether it was transplanted directly from another context without modification; adapted or modified from another model; or created locally.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542661/original/file-20230814-15-u8nsyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a man sitting at a computer is concentrating on the screen; another screen behind shows a map with a disease outbreak cluster" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542661/original/file-20230814-15-u8nsyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542661/original/file-20230814-15-u8nsyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542661/original/file-20230814-15-u8nsyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542661/original/file-20230814-15-u8nsyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542661/original/file-20230814-15-u8nsyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542661/original/file-20230814-15-u8nsyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542661/original/file-20230814-15-u8nsyx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A worker at HealthMap, a system using artificial intelligence to monitor global disease outbreaks, mines health data to map the spread of COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Steven Senne)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Understanding the challenge</h2>
<p>Addressing the global AI divide requires understanding that we are dealing with, at least in part, a modelling problem, similar to past modelling problems. One of the challenges that policymakers will therefore face is assessing how to ensure that AI models can be developed and deployed by as many countries as possible, allowing them to benefit from their potential. </p>
<p>Solutions, such as applying the TAC framework, moves us towards model localization, ensuring that applications of AI adapt to diverse global realities as much as possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206258/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eleonore Fournier-Tombs receives funding from the International Development Research Centre and Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency.</span></em></p>Models are powerful, but they have their risks, and AI is just the latest example. The best way to address this is by ensuring that AI can be developed in a globally decentralized way.Eleonore Fournier-Tombs, Head of Anticipatory Action and Innovation, Centre for Policy Research (UNU-CPR), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2032872023-08-11T16:17:53Z2023-08-11T16:17:53ZHow ChatGPT might be able to help the world’s poorest and the organisations that work with them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536839/original/file-20230711-25-pmjhks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=46%2C9%2C6147%2C3227&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>ChatGPT has been touted as a tool that is going to revolutionise the workplace and home. AI systems like it have the potential to <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161">enhance productivity</a> but <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-65102150">could also displace jobs</a>. The ChatGPT website received <a href="https://www.similarweb.com/website/chat.openai.com/#traffic">1.5 billion visits last month</a>.</p>
<p>Though no comprehensive statistics exist, these users are likely to be relatively educated, with access to smartphones or computers. So, can the AI chatbot also benefit people who don’t have all these advantages?</p>
<p>We are associated with <a href="https://www.friend-in-need.org/">Friend in Need India Trust (FIN)</a>, a non-governmental organisation (NGO) based in an isolated fishing village named Kameswaram in Tamil Nadu state. FIN wages a daily battle against <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10118087/">women’s lack of empowerment</a>, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/11/diwali-air-pollution-delhi-health/">pollution</a> and a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/2157930X.2019.1580934">lack of functioning sanitation</a>.</p>
<p>These problems and others act as key obstacles to local economic development. Recently a FIN colleague, Dr Raja Venkataramani, returned from the US keen to discuss ChatGPT. He wondered whether the AI chatbot could help to create awareness, motivation and community engagement towards our sustainability goals in Kameswaram.</p>
<p>For one experiment, we worked with local women who are FIN staff members but didn’t have a high level of education. The women staff at FIN are local villagers grappling with patriarchal attitudes at home, who find it difficult to construct engaging arguments to motivate local people – especially boys and men – to conserve water, use toilets and not litter in public places. </p>
<p>We introduced ChatGPT to them as a tool to aid them in their lives and work. After installing it on their phones, they found it very helpful. ChatGPT acted like a companion and remembered what had been discussed previously.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fisherman in Kameswaran." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537519/original/file-20230714-15992-mg2hol.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537519/original/file-20230714-15992-mg2hol.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537519/original/file-20230714-15992-mg2hol.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537519/original/file-20230714-15992-mg2hol.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537519/original/file-20230714-15992-mg2hol.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537519/original/file-20230714-15992-mg2hol.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537519/original/file-20230714-15992-mg2hol.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">FIN staff take their ocean littering campaign out into the local area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shyama V Ramani</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One staff member wanted to use it to debate politics with her husband in the run-up to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_elections_in_India">state elections</a>. She asked ChatGPT what was good and bad about her preferred candidate and requested that it back this up with data. </p>
<p>She then repeated this for that politician’s opponent. She found the responses for both candidates were equally convincing. The staff member did not have the patience to check the veracity of the arguments and so ended up even more confused. This made her reluctant to use ChatGPT again.</p>
<p>Sam Altman, ChatGPT’s creator, along with other tech leaders in the US are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/16/ceo-openai-chatgpt-ai-tech-regulations">calling for regulation</a> to contain the risks of AI hallucinations, which is when the technology generates false information that could trigger social tensions. We asked ChatGPT to produce a speech calling to quell a mob bent on carrying out honour killings. </p>
<p>Even today, India remains plagued by communal violence such as <a href="https://ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/addressing-honour-killings-in-india-the-need-for-new-legislation/">honour killings</a> against, for example, couples who marry outside their caste or young women who seek employment outside the village. ChatGPT proved to be a very effective speech writer, producing compelling arguments against these acts.</p>
<p>However, those in favour of maintaining the status quo could also use the chatbot to justify their violent behaviour to the community. This might happen if they were seeking to retain their status within the village, countering any efforts to encourage community members to end the practices. We found that the AI system was just as adept at producing arguments in favour of honour killings.</p>
<p>In a different experiment, we aimed to see how the chatbot could help NGOs promote women’s empowerment – a central mission of FIN’s – in a way that could benefit the community. We asked ChatGPT to create a speech explaining the relevance of <a href="https://www.internationalwomensday.com/">International Women’s Day</a> to villagers. </p>
<p>The speech was very impressive, but it contained factual errors on sex ratios, the abortion of foetuses outside legal limits, and women’s participation in the workforce. When ChatGPT was asked to justify the errors, it replied: “I apologise for any confusion. I provided a hypothetical statistic to illustrate the point.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="FIN staff members discussing a campaign for women's empowerment." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536835/original/file-20230711-23-o3xztw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536835/original/file-20230711-23-o3xztw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536835/original/file-20230711-23-o3xztw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536835/original/file-20230711-23-o3xztw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=277&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536835/original/file-20230711-23-o3xztw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536835/original/file-20230711-23-o3xztw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536835/original/file-20230711-23-o3xztw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=348&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">FIN staff members discussing a campaign for women’s empowerment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shyama V Ramani</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Pollution problem</h2>
<p>In another experiment, we wanted to address the problem of pollution from traditional festivals in India. These frequently involve firecrackers and parties, which increase the levels of air and water pollution. </p>
<p>Though street theatre has previously been used successfully <a href="https://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13071-022-05421-5;%20Pelto,%20P.%20J.,%20&%20Singh,%20R.%20(2010).%20Community%20street%20theatre%20as%20a%20tool%20for%20interventions%20on%20alcohol%20use%20and%20other%20behaviors%20related%20to%20HIV%20risks.%20AIDS%20and%20Behavior,%2014,%20147-157.">to motivate behavioural change</a>, neither FIN’s staff nor its mentors felt capable of writing a script. However, within three minutes of being fed the right prompt, ChatGPT came up with a skit involving young people. </p>
<p>It included both male and female characters, used local names and was mindful of local nuances. The FIN staff boosted the local character of the skit by inserting their own jokes into it. The short theatre piece argued that the impact on our oceans of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-43023-x">microfibres from synthetic clothing</a> represents a significant environmental problem that can harm livelihoods. </p>
<h2>Asking the AI</h2>
<p>We asked ChatGPT for its opinion on our results. It asserted that ChatGPT can be a valuable tool for both economically disadvantaged people and NGOs because it provided valuable information, offered emotional support and made communication more effective. </p>
<p>But the chatbot avoided discussing its obvious downsides, such as making arguments based on false, incomplete or imperfect information. Just as it can help us, it can also act as a capable speech writer for those who would seek to divide or raise tensions.</p>
<p>For the time being, ChatGPT seems like a handy tool for well-intentioned NGOs, but not so much for the ordinary individuals that they assist. Without users having the means to monitor the ethics and truthfulness of ChatGPT’s suggestions, AI systems could become dangerous enablers for disinformation and misinformation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203287/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>AI chatbots can be educational tools but still have many drawbacks.Shyama V. Ramani, Professorial Fellow, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityMaximilian Bruder, PhD Research Fellow, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2086352023-06-29T12:19:21Z2023-06-29T12:19:21ZDebunking migration myths: the real reasons people move, and why most migration happens in the global south – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534600/original/file-20230628-19-2o12hs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=113%2C29%2C3862%2C2632&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People in motion in Sao Paulo, Brazil.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/guarulhos-sao-paulo-brazil-august-01-1152195791">Alf Ribeiro/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, borders between countries are getting tougher. Governments are making it more difficult to move, especially for <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-governments-plan-to-remove-asylum-seekers-will-be-a-logistical-mess-and-may-not-deter-people-from-coming-to-the-uk-201248">certain groups of vulnerable people</a>. This comes with a message, subtle or not: that people are moving to higher-income countries to take advantage of the welfare system, or the jobs of people already living there. </p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/649d5140bd828b00115aaa7b" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-561" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/561/4fbbd099d631750693d02bac632430b71b37cd5f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>But evidence shows that much of what we think about migration – particularly those of us in Europe, North America and Australia – is wrong. Political narratives, often replicated in the media, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-taking-back-control-of-borders-become-record-high-net-migration-206429">shape the conversation and public attitudes</a> toward migration. </p>
<p>As the researchers we speak to in this episode of <em>The Conversation Weekly</em> tell us, these narratives are not the full picture. Our interviewees explain what migration really looks like around the world, what drives people to uproot their lives and move, and how some countries in Africa are welcoming refugees. </p>
<h2>Challenging the narrative</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/heaven-crawley-163060">Heaven Crawley</a>, a researcher at UN University Centre for Policy Research based in New York, has been interested in migration since the late 1980s. Then, the breakup of the former Yugoslavia caused what was often referred to as a refugee “crisis” in Europe. </p>
<p>Language like “crisis” has been a part of the discourse on migration for years. But Crawley thinks of this in a particular way: “It’s absolutely fair to say that there is a crisis associated with migration. It’s normally for the people who are actually moving, because they’re often in situations where there are huge inequalities in the right to move.” </p>
<p>Crawley shared that migration, while “intrinsic to our economies and the way we function”, is not actually the norm. Most people don’t migrate, and those who do mostly move within their country of origin. </p>
<p>She explained how, in Europe especially, perceptions of those who do migrate are often clouded by a narrative that people who move, legally, for work are “good” migrants. Conversely, people who move without visa permission or through clandestine means are viewed as “bad” migrants.</p>
<p>In reality, people moving for any reason is usually a force for good for the country they move to and the people they encounter, Crawley suggested. “People are coming to realise that actually, migration can be very positive in terms of their day-to-day lives, who they mix with, who their family are married to.”</p>
<p>When people decide to migrate, whether seeking economic opportunities or to escape violence or persecution, there are a number of factors influencing where they go. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/valentina-di-iasio-1426549">Valentina Di Iasio</a>, a research fellow at the University of Southampton in the UK, has researched what makes people choose one country over another.</p>
<p>Di Iasio and her colleague <a href="https://www.southampton.ac.uk/people/5wy2yd/professor-jackie-wahba">Jackie Wahba</a> wanted to investigate the theory of the “welfare magnet”, that people choose to migrate to countries where the welfare state is more generous. </p>
<p>But looking specifically at asylum seekers, they found that the strongest “pull factor” attracting people to particular countries is social networks. In other words, it’s not about the economy or welfare state, it’s about “having the possibility to rely on a community that is already there and already established”.</p>
<p>Di Iasio also noted that many countries have policies preventing asylum seekers from working when they first arrive. But she said these policies often backfire, both for people arriving, and the host country’s overall economy: “If you ban asylum seekers from employment, this leads people … to become more dependent on public spending in the short term, and this is not good for anyone.”</p>
<h2>Migration in the global south</h2>
<p>It’s impossible to understand the global picture of migration if we only look at specific routes – for example, from India to the UK, or from Mexico to the US. According to Crawley, about one third of global migration happens within the global north (Europe, North America, Australia and parts of Asia), one third happens within the global south (South America, Africa and parts of Asia), and the remaining third is between the two. </p>
<p>With that in mind, we spoke to <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-changwe-nshimbi-181183">Christopher Changwe Nshimbi</a>, a researcher at the University of Pretoria in South Africa, about a region with frequent movement across borders. He studies the relationship between migration, development and regional integration (countries forming economic and trade relationships with each other) in Africa.</p>
<p>Nshimbi said that more open borders are beneficial to regional integration in Africa. They allow people to move where their skills are needed, and to send remittances (money) back home to family, often within the same region. </p>
<p>And yet, some countries are tightening their migration policies. Part of this, Nshimbi explained, is even influenced by attitudes in the global north. For example, development funding from the European Union is often tied to efforts to curb migration from Africa to the EU. Nshimbi said that when migrants are seen as a threat to high-income European countries: “The tendency seems to be to try and influence the movement … of Africans within the African continent.” </p>
<p>But he said this approach is misguided, and that funding development in low-income countries “doesn’t necessarily translate into people stopping migrating”. In some cases, this funding to stop migration has been used in a way that causes instability and violence – and ultimately, more migration. </p>
<h2>Looking toward the future</h2>
<p>Nshimbi is now researching how the effects of climate change, such as extreme weather patterns, are leading people to migrate. While this will present challenges for governments, Nshimbi said the history of migration on the continent gives him reason to be optimistic. </p>
<p>He said he wonders why European countries talk about refugee “crises” when countries in Africa regularly host many more refugees. Citing the example of Uganda, he said: “There are shining examples on the continent of countries that, though poor, host large numbers of refugees.” </p>
<p>Again referencing Uganda, Nshimbi said that some countries are used to hosting refugees, providing them with land and resources so they can participate in local economies until they move elsewhere: “A poor country, but they take care of them.”</p>
<p>Listen to the full episode of The Conversation Weekly to learn more about migration around the world, what factors drive people to move, and what some countries in Africa are doing to welcome refugees.</p>
<hr>
<p>This episode was written and produced by Avery Anapol and Mend Mariwany, who is also the executive producer of The Conversation Weekly. Eloise Stevens does our sound design, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl.</p>
<p>You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/">theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. You can also subscribe to The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter">free daily email here</a>. </p>
<p>Listen to <em>The Conversation Weekly</em> via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a> or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208635/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heaven Crawley has received funding from the UKRI Global Challenges Research Fund.
Valentina Di Iasio has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 870299 QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Changwe Nshimbi has received funding from the National Research Foundation (South Africa) and the European Commission. He is also member of the African Borderlands Research Network (ABORNE) Platform for African European Studies (PAES).</span></em></p>Why your understanding of who migrates (and why) might be wrong.Avery Anapol, Commissioning Editor, Politics + Society, The Conversation Weekly PodcastMend Mariwany, Producer, The Conversation Weekly, The Conversation Weekly PodcastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2058742023-06-26T16:14:03Z2023-06-26T16:14:03ZWorried about AI? You might have AI-nxiety – here’s how to cope<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533732/original/file-20230623-25-7jinnz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=126%2C144%2C5880%2C3863&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/beautiful-brunette-woman-laughing-hair-resting-2119508483">lborgephoto123/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even tech experts have been astonished by the recent, rapid growth of AI technology, able to hold human-like conversations in multiple languages, create music and <a href="https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/102705#:%7E:text=Two%20artificial%20intelligence%20(AI)%20programs,2%20CK%2C%20and%20Step%203.">pass medical exams</a>. While the <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20200918STO87404/artificial-intelligence-threats-and-opportunities">potential benefits</a> of AI in fields such as <a href="https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/06-02-2023-artificial-intelligence-in-mental-health-research--new-who-study-on-applications-and-challenges#:%7E:text=AI%2Ddriven%20tools%20can%20use,the%20causes%20of%20complex%20disorders">healthcare</a> are indeed inspiring, the pace of change is rapid, and there is still lots of uncertainty about the future.</p>
<p>If you feel worried about how AI could <a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230418-ai-anxiety-artificial-intelligence-replace-jobs">affect your career</a>, your privacy or your safety in the coming years, you might be experiencing AI-nxiety. This term, coined by a <a href="https://d1eiclctjgjd8x.cloudfront.net/uploads/images/Perspectives-Content/Issue-Content/D1A-Predictionary-2023.pdf">marketing agency</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-anxiety-about-losing-our-jobs-2023-2?international=true&r=US&IR=T">spreading on social media</a>, describes the uneasy feeling about the effects of AI on human creativity and inventiveness. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/mental-health/feelings-symptoms-behaviours/feelings-and-symptoms/anxiety-disorder-signs/">Anxiety disorders</a> are often related to difficulty coping with uncertainty and ambiguity. People feel anxious not just about what exists, but what is unknown. AI-nxiety stems from feelings of uncertainty about AI’s potential, for example, to create <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/27/1172387911/how-can-people-spot-fake-images-created-by-artificial-intelligence">fake videos</a> and spread <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/technology/ai-chatbots-disinformation.html">disinformation</a> that polarises populations. Some AI-produced content can also provoke a negative emotional reaction in viewers. This unsettling feeling when an AI character or voice <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/ai-uncanny-valley">is eerily close, but not quite, human</a> is known as the <a href="https://jov.arvojournals.org/article.aspx?articleid=2772447">“uncanny valley”</a>.</p>
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<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Quarter life, a series by The Conversation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451343/original/file-20220310-13-1bj6csd.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/quarter-life-117947?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">This article is part of Quarter Life</a></strong>, a series about issues affecting those of us in our twenties and thirties. From the challenges of beginning a career and taking care of our mental health to the excitement of starting a family, adopting a pet or just making friends as an adult. The articles in this series explore the questions and bring answers as we navigate this turbulent period of life.</em></p>
<p><em>You may be interested in:</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/when-can-your-boss-fire-you-for-social-media-use-an-expert-on-the-law-explains-201804?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">When can your boss fire you for social media use? An expert on the law explains</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/why-finding-your-purpose-matters-and-four-ways-to-find-yours-203298?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">Why ‘finding your purpose’ matters – and four ways to find yours</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-rewire-your-brain-to-feel-good-on-mondays-199236?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=UK+YP2022&utm_content=InArticleTop">How to rewire your brain to feel good on Mondays</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>It might help to remember that these feelings aren’t necessarily new. Similar worries about technological advancements, such as <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/BF03203781">“computerphobia”</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0747563287900100?via%3Dihub">“computer anxiety”</a> and <a href="https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/isre.1070.0165">“technostress”</a> emerged as early as the 1980s.</p>
<p>In many ways, AI-nxiety is similar to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-changes-impact-on-mental-health-is-overlooked-and-misunderstood-heres-what-can-be-done-194128">eco-anxiety</a> that many young people feel about climate change. Like environmental degradation, rapid digitalisation is a result of human activity. Many people are now feeling that both of these are getting out of their control.</p>
<p>But AI-nxiety doesn’t have to rule your life. Excessive worry can affect daily activities, and even lead to <a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/322510#symptoms">other medical issues</a>, and can stop you from seeing the positives of digital advancement. Below are three tips to cope.</p>
<h2>1. Realise AI is already here</h2>
<p>Lack of familiarity with AI technology could prompt feelings of fear and anxiety towards it. Taking a moment to think about how AI is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2019/12/16/the-10-best-examples-of-how-ai-is-already-used-in-our-everyday-life/?sh=7f6d7b371171">already part of our lives</a> might make the new tools that are employing similar algorithms less intimidating.</p>
<p>For example, many people use <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0267257X.2019.1687571?casa_token=IiYRbgZiVp4AAAAA%3A84sGM4sHLFKY9Vu4GG1FWX-6ZXJDY6fYhbjd_N981bXF3UTwH8TW6uflLPdq0mgF96W9lmy28-RM&journalCode=rjmm20">Apple’s Siri</a> to look for nearby restaurants or select a film based on <a href="https://www.simplilearn.com/how-netflix-uses-ai-data-science-and-ml-article#:%7E:text=Netflix%27s%20AI%20considers%20your%20viewing,content%20based%20on%20their%20preferences.">Netflix’s recommendations</a>. AI is also part of learning new languages with <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2023/04/28/the-amazing-ways-duolingo-is-using-ai-and-gpt-4/?sh=4b0eda151346">Duolingo</a>, or using <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/defaultinterstitial.cms">Google Maps</a> to navigate a new city. </p>
<h2>2. Prepare for new career prospects</h2>
<p>It’s almost certain that AI will affect the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/kalinabryant/2023/05/31/how-ai-will-impact-the-next-generation-workforce/?sh=4860ab306fae">next generation’s workforce</a>. A 2020 report by the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-of-jobs-report-2020/digest">World Economic Forum</a> predicted that 85 million jobs will be replaced by AI by 2025, while AI could potentially generate 97 million new roles across 26 countries. </p>
<p>But you can prepare by learning how to use AI tools to their <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-use-chatgpt-at-work-job-save-time-ai-2023-2?international=true&r=US&IR=T">full potential</a> in your current or future career. Several <a href="https://www.udacity.com/">online courses</a> are available to give you a better understanding of how AI will affect your field and help you prepare by developing your digital skills.</p>
<p>Importantly though, be mindful of keeping up with <a href="https://sussexbusinessschool.com/the-human-skills-ai-cant-master/">human skills</a> such as interpersonal skills or emotional intelligence that AI can’t (yet) replace. A combination of <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/be/en/pages/public-sector/articles/upskilling-the-workforce-in-european-union-for-the-future-of-work.html">digital and soft skills is needed</a> for the future health of the workforce. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="View from behind of a man and woman hiking in a forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533734/original/file-20230623-19-4znwte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533734/original/file-20230623-19-4znwte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533734/original/file-20230623-19-4znwte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533734/original/file-20230623-19-4znwte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533734/original/file-20230623-19-4znwte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533734/original/file-20230623-19-4znwte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533734/original/file-20230623-19-4znwte.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">AI-nxiety: nothing a walk in the woods can’t fix.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/hike-couple-hikers-hiking-forest-trail-1512534764">Maridav/Shutterstoc</a></span>
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<h2>3. Take a break</h2>
<p>If you feel overwhelmed, turn off digital devices or take a break from screens. Using new AI tools or reading the headlines could make you feel anxious or unsettled. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44184-022-00015-6">Research has found</a> that reducing non-work related digital screen use improves wellbeing and mood overall. Ironically, there are useful digital support tools, such as <a href="https://www.digitaldetox.com/">Digital Detox</a>, that can give you a hand in reducing your screen time. </p>
<p>You may even be able to use AI or other digital tools to enrich your offline life. For example, using Google Maps to plot a safe cycling route, or asking ChatGPT for a recipe to cook with friends. This way, you can take a screen break while reminding yourself of the benefits that technology can bring to your life – two great ways to reduce your AI-nxiety.</p>
<h2>4. Read up on regulation</h2>
<p>While you shouldn’t spend all your time reading about it (remember tip number three), it could be helpful to stay informed about progress in AI regulation. With eco-anxiety, it can be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02582-8">frustrating to feel</a> that governments are not taking swift action, but those with AI-nxiety might be reassured that some governments are taking the risks seriously.</p>
<p>For example, the EU has just approved a draft law, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20230601STO93804/eu-ai-act-first-regulation-on-artificial-intelligence">the AI Act</a>, to regulate the use of AI in society.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/eu-approves-draft-law-to-regulate-ai-heres-how-it-will-work-205672">EU approves draft law to regulate AI – here's how it will work</a>
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<p>AI <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/05/17/openais-sam-altman-calls-for-regulation-amid-fears-ai-could-cause-significant-harm-to-the-">creators</a> and other <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/emmawoollacott/2023/03/29/tech-expertsand-elon-muskcall-for-a-pause-in-ai-training/?sh=32dda8207829">tech experts</a>, believe <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/02/regulating-ai-might-require-a-new-federal-agency/cde2deaa-d150-11ed-ac8b-cd7da05168e9_story.html">regulating AI is essential</a> to building trust in the technology before it is used more widely. Good regulation could maximise the value AI offers to society, while minimising risks – and AI-nxiety.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205874/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sanae Okamoto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You probably already use AI in your life - take time to think about how these tools help you.Sanae Okamoto, Researcher in Behavioural Science and Psychology, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2065382023-06-11T07:03:18Z2023-06-11T07:03:18ZNigeria needs to take climate action: 4 urgent steps to start with<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530081/original/file-20230605-19-fmhh9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trucks, with goods, abandoned on Nigeria's East-West highway cut off by flood in October 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change is not just a buzzword or a topic for political debates. It is a real and pressing issue that affects every aspect of our lives. The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">effects of climate change</a> are already being felt worldwide, from rising sea levels to heatwaves, droughts, floods, loss of biodiversity, food insecurity and more.</p>
<p>In Nigeria, climate change has contributed to the country’s mounting <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Nigeria_LTS1.pdf">economic and social challenges</a>. The country has <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Nigeria_LTS1.pdf">acknowledged</a> the need to move to a low-carbon future. Yet climate change was largely absent from the 2022 presidential campaign manifestos.</p>
<p>The newly elected government, led by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, faces numerous immediate challenges. Among them are widespread <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-security-kidnappings-violence-idUSKCN2AU10C">violence and insecurity</a>; high <a href="https://punchng.com/inflation-weakens-naira-by-15-in-2022-nesg-report/">inflation and currency depreciation</a>; and a mounting <a href="https://theconversation.com/tinubu-inherits-nigerias-high-debt-an-economist-analyses-what-this-means-for-the-countrys-future-206323">debt burden</a>. </p>
<p>But climate change cannot be ignored. It has directly contributed to Nigeria’s crises. For example, <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2023/03/16/nigerian-cities-are-not-prepared-for-flooding-caused-by-climate-change/">extreme flooding</a> in 2022 displaced 1.4 million people and fuelled <a href="https://nairametrics.com/2022/11/15/food-inflation-rises-to-23-7-as-floods-destroy-farmlands/">food inflation</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nigeria-floods-4-ways-they-affect-food-security-193354">Nigeria floods: 4 ways they affect food security</a>
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<p><a href="https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/14761">Extreme heat</a> and <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2020-0119/full/html">erratic rainfall</a>, both consequences of climate change, have intensified resource competition between farmers and herders, leading to <a href="https://nigeriaclimate.crisisgroup.org/">communal clashes</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/herder-farmer-conflict-in-the-sahel-needs-a-new-description-why-eco-violence-fits-186056">Herder-farmer conflict in the Sahel needs a new description: why 'eco-violence' fits</a>
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<p>As a disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/olasunkanmi-habeeb-okunola-1033200">expert</a>, I argue that climate change should be central to government’s planning. This is to prevent future infrastructure damage, create economic opportunities, and provide various social and environmental benefits. </p>
<p>Nigeria’s new government should take action on climate change, even amid all the other pressing issues. Much of this action concerns the move from reliance on fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources, often referred to as the energy transition. </p>
<p>Nigeria is a major hydrocarbon producer and holds the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/Nigeria/">largest</a> natural gas reserves on the continent. It therefore has the potential to play a significant role in shaping how countries manage a transition away from hydrocarbon fuels to cleaner energy sources such as solar, wind and hydro power. </p>
<p>Although Nigeria’s <a href="https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13705-022-00379-9">dire public finances</a> limit its ability to invest in renewable energy, the government can still take steps. It has made a start with <a href="https://theconversation.com/nigerias-fuel-subsidy-is-gone-its-time-to-spend-the-money-in-ways-that-benefit-the-poor-204701">removing fossil fuel subsidies</a>. Other steps, which research has shown to be working in <a href="https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/March/Renewable-Energy-Transition-Africa_Country_Studies_2021.pdf#page=30">Morocco</a> and <a href="https://www.iea.org/countries/rwanda">Rwanda</a>, could be:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>effective <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19376812.2023.2184841">flood risk management</a></p></li>
<li><p>tax and duty exemptions for components used in solar solutions</p></li>
<li><p>adapting existing initiatives in the power, agriculture and transport sectors to promote <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter09.pdf">clean energy</a></p></li>
<li><p>prioritising infrastructure projects that will attract private investment in the energy transition.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Solutions</h2>
<p>Before 2018, renewable energy generation equipment was eligible for tax exemptions. But the tax breaks ended, resulting in higher retail prices for solar solutions. A <a href="https://www.ace-taf.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/NIGERIA-IMPACT-ASSESSMENT-OF-VAT-AND-DUTY-EXEMPTIONS-TECHNICAL-REPORT_Final.pdf">study</a> by the African Clean Energy Technical Assistance Facility calculated that the benefits of cheaper solar products (energy access and job creation) would have outweighed the tax revenues forgone. </p>
<p>The new president could reinstate the incentives for solar products.</p>
<p>The government should also act urgently to manage flood risks. It could invest in awareness campaigns to educate citizens on the dangers of flooding and how to prepare and respond to flood events. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-nigerian-cities-can-do-to-cope-better-with-flood-risk-172312">What Nigerian cities can do to cope better with flood risk</a>
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<p>Sustainable urban planning and land-use management can make urban areas less vulnerable to flooding. This involves enforcing <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-steps-nigeria-must-take-to-stop-buildings-collapsing-in-lagos-190470">building codes</a> and zoning regulations, safeguarding natural buffers such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-root-cause-of-flooding-in-accra-developers-clogging-up-the-citys-wetlands-184270">wetlands</a>, and using <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-policies-are-in-place-for-south-africas-major-port-city-but-a-key-piece-is-missing-181272">green infrastructure</a> to manage stormwater runoff.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wetlands-do-the-job-of-expensive-technology-if-we-let-them-125452">Wetlands do the job of expensive technology, if we let them</a>
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<p>Thirdly, the government can review existing initiatives in the power, agriculture and transport sectors to advance climate action at a modest cost. For example, the <a href="https://assets.siemens-energy.com/siemens/assets/api/uuid:8d03f57f-bb60-430e-878b-9dd5ec3f4d2c/understanding-nigeria-s-ppi-v2-v3-002-.pdf">Presidential Power Initiative</a> is a partnership between the Nigerian government and Siemens Energy AG to upgrade energy infrastructure. It’s an opportunity to enable the integration of renewable energy. The new administration should honour the agreements signed and continue to fund them. </p>
<p>The government can also upskill <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-digital-technologies-can-help-africas-smallholder-farmers-119952">smallholder farmers</a> on climate-smart agriculture methods. These include adopting flood- and drought-tolerant seed varieties, installing early warning systems for weather, and training farmers to improve land productivity. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-pioneers-how-small-farmers-could-be-leading-the-way-towards-sustainable-agriculture-109117">Climate pioneers: how small farmers could be leading the way towards sustainable agriculture</a>
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<p>A fourth area where government could act on climate is infrastructure for the energy transition. For example, investing in modern grids that encourage private investment in solar and wind power. </p>
<p>The government can also partner with multilateral institutions and development banks to mobilise the finance for climate action. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop27-in-review-climate-talks-delivered-big-gains-for-africa-but-also-several-challenges-196582">COP27 in review: climate talks delivered big gains for Africa, but also several challenges</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The African Development Bank’s <a href="https://northafricapost.com/62672-desert-to-power-initiative-to-light-up-the-sahel-countries-showcased-at-cop27.html#:%7E:text=The%20Desert%20to%20Power%20initiative%20is%20designed%20to%20turn%20Africa,the%20population%20lives%20without%20electricity.">Desert to Power initiative</a>, which aims to build a 10GW solar park across the Sahel region of Africa, including Nigeria, presents an opportunity for the government to attract investment in the country’s renewable energy sector.</p>
<p>Finally, the government must recognise the significance of the climate crisis and the challenges it poses to Nigeria’s development. Climate action must be coordinated across sectors and integrated into all government policies. </p>
<h2>Climate strategy</h2>
<p>The government can also engage with civil society organisations, academia and the private sector on climate strategy. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-nigerias-religious-leaders-should-learn-more-about-climate-change-153983">Why Nigeria's religious leaders should learn more about climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Such a strategy could guide the country’s transition to a low-carbon economy and the allocation of resources to climate action.</p>
<p>The energy transition is an opportunity for Nigeria to diversify its economy, reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, and create new job opportunities. Climate action can help to address some of Nigeria’s most pressing challenges, such as frequent flooding, food insecurity, poverty and inequality.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206538/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola is a Visiting Scientist at the United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS).</span></em></p>Nigeria’s new President Bola Ahmed Tinubu faces a number of challenges. But climate change cannot be ignored.Olasunkanmi Habeeb Okunola, Visiting Scientist, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2058712023-06-06T12:22:59Z2023-06-06T12:22:59ZRefugee camps are at higher risk of extreme weather – new research<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529824/original/file-20230602-25-lychlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=128%2C47%2C4377%2C2956&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh, home to one million Rohingya refugees, is prone to flooding.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/dhaka-bangladesh-september-20-2017-rohingya-718831417">Sk Hasan Ali/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Around the world, climate change, violence and poverty are forcing people from their homes. The UN’s refugee agency <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/media/mid-year-trends-2022">estimated</a> that by mid-2022, there were 103 million people displaced from their homes, compared to 90 million at the end of 2021.</p>
<p>People who are displaced are increasingly moving to urban areas, but many still end up in long-term informal settlements or refugee camps. More often than not, these settlements are located in isolated and remote areas, with poor quality land and harsh climatic conditions. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2206189120">New research</a> by my colleagues and me reveals that these settlements are also facing extreme weather conditions, which are only likely to worsen as a result of climate change. We analysed the conditions around the world’s 20 largest refugee settlements, looking at climate, weather and population data. </p>
<p>We found that, compared to the average weather conditions in refugee-hosting countries, conditions in and around refugee camps are often significantly worse. This adds to the political and social exclusion that these populations already face.</p>
<p>The results were particularly notable for slow-onset events, meaning long-term, gradual changes in temperatures and precipitation. But camps were also affected by rapid-onset disasters like flooding, heatwaves and coldwaves. </p>
<p>Refugee settlements in Kenya and Ethiopia, for example, are in arid desert or tropical savanna climate zones. Average temperatures in the camp areas are 7.65°C and 8.75°C higher than national averages. Most refugee settlements that are exposed to extremely high temperatures also tend to experience less than average rainfall. </p>
<p>Refugees in Jordan and Pakistan, on the other hand, are exposed to extremely low temperatures and harsh winter conditions. The Pakistan refugee settlements we analysed are in mountainous areas, with extreme temperatures in both summer and winter. </p>
<p>In Balochistan province in Pakistan, settlement locations experience on average 4.12°C lower temperatures than the country as a whole. Zaatari refugee camp in northern Jordan, close to the border with Syria, is in a cold arid steppe zone with dry, hot summers and harsh winter conditions.</p>
<h2>Rapid-onset risk</h2>
<p>There were fewer significant findings for rapid-onset events, such as heatwaves, coldwaves and extreme rainfall. This means that the refugee settlements do not experience these events more frequently than their respective host countries. </p>
<p>Yet this does not mean that refugee settlements do not experience these events. On the contrary – the countries and regions that host most refugees worldwide are also the most vulnerable to climate change, and frequently experience rapid-onset events. The refugee settlements in these countries are therefore at severe risk.</p>
<p>Take, for example, Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh, home to an estimated 1 million Rohingya refugees. The settlements there have expanded over time and are now some of the largest and most densely populated refugee settlements in the world.</p>
<p>Cox’s Bazar is located in the tropical monsoon <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata2018214">climate zone</a>, and extreme rainfall is common across the entire region. Without adequate water management, rainfall and associated flooding can present a risk to temporary shelters. Stagnant water as a result of rainfall can be a health risk for refugees living in the settlements. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young men sitting on rocks, wearing jackets and all curled into themselves, next to a tall barbed wire fence" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530129/original/file-20230605-17-2nksxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530129/original/file-20230605-17-2nksxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530129/original/file-20230605-17-2nksxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530129/original/file-20230605-17-2nksxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530129/original/file-20230605-17-2nksxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530129/original/file-20230605-17-2nksxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530129/original/file-20230605-17-2nksxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Syrian refugees in Jordan’s Zaatari camp are likely to be exposed to harsh winter conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/syrias-refugee-zaatari-camp-jordan-on-1861730563">Richard Juilliart/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All 20 settlements in our analysis are regularly exposed to heatwaves and coldwaves. Fifteen experience a high number of consecutive days per season with extremely high temperatures, particularly in Kenya (Kakuma), South Sudan (Jamjang) and Bangladesh (Cox’s Bazar). </p>
<p>These effects have also worsened over time. The length of extremely high temperature periods in refugee settlement areas in Kenya, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda increased between 1981 and 2009. </p>
<p>And the length of extremely cold periods increased slightly in Pakistan, Jordan and Ethiopia. In the absence of adequate shelter and protection, cold weather can present as much of a health hazard as extreme heat.</p>
<h2>More barriers for refugees</h2>
<p>Extreme weather events, both slow and rapid onset, severely affect the wellbeing and livelihood of people in refugee settlements. In places with weak infrastructure, limited job opportunities, inadequate housing and insufficient humanitarian aid, extreme weather can make it even harder for refugees to become self-reliant and resilient. </p>
<p>These events can also put extra pressure on the already precarious living conditions of host communities. This can strain the relationships between refugees and host communities when resources are scarce.</p>
<p>Research conducted in Kakuma refugee camp in Kenya has shown how water shortages, land shortages and lack of economic opportunities have <a href="http://jirfp.com/journals/jirfp/Vol_5_No_2_December_2017/4.pdf">strained these relationships</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-for-ukraine-from-the-rohingya-crisis-even-sympathetic-communities-can-lose-their-enthusiasm-for-hosting-refugees-181365">Lessons for Ukraine from the Rohingya crisis: even sympathetic communities can lose their enthusiasm for hosting refugees</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As the number of extreme weather events associated with climate change increases, more people are at risk of becoming displaced. Governments and humanitarian agencies should pay more attention to these environmental risks when designing and selecting locations for camps. </p>
<p>National climate adaptation and sustainable development policies should also support and protect displaced populations and host communities. Without such strategies, it will become even harder to mitigate the effects of climate change on the most vulnerable populations.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sonja Fransen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Refugee settlements are particularly affected by high temperatures and extreme rainfall, even more so than the rest of their host countries.Sonja Fransen, Senior Researcher, Migration and Development, Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2030632023-04-02T00:40:12Z2023-04-02T00:40:12ZBagaimana industri air kemasan menyembunyikan krisis air global<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518755/original/file-20230331-22-ikxkn3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4354%2C2896&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Perusahaan air kemasan mengeksploitasi air permukaan dan akuifer, membeli air dengan harga yang sangat rendah dan menjualnya 150 hingga 1.000 kali lebih mahal daripada unit air leding.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/clean-water-plastic-bottle-on-dry-1475717444">Piyaset/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Air minum dalam kemasan merupakan salah satu produk minuman paling populer di dunia, dan <a href="https://www.statista.com/study/55493/non-alcoholic-drinks-report/">industri ini</a> dengan gencar memanfaatkan popularitas tersebut. </p>
<p>Semenjak milenium ini (memasuki abad ke-21), negara-negara di dunia telah meraih kemajuan signifikan untuk mewujudkan air minum yang aman bagi semua. Pada 2020, <a href="https://www.unicef.org/reports/state-worlds-drinking-water">74% populasi manusia</a> memiliki akses ke air minum yang aman dikonsumsi. Angka ini meningkat 10% dibandingkan dengan dua dekade lalu. Namun, ini masih menyisakan <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1067123">dua miliar manusia yang tak memiliki akses terhadap air layak minum</a>. </p>
<p>Sementara itu, perusahaan air minum kemasan mengeksploitasi air permukaan dan akuifer (lapisan kulit bumi berpori yang dapat menahan air) — biasanya dengan biaya yang sangat rendah — kemudian menjualnya dengan harga <a href="https://bioone.org/journals/ambio-a-journal-of-the-human-environment/volume-30/issue-2/0044-7447-30.2.118/Bottled-Water-Understanding-a-Social-Phenomenon/10.1579/0044-7447-30.2.118.short">150 hingga 1.000 kali</a> lebih mahal daripada unit air keran di kota yang sama. Mereka kerap menjustifikasi tingginya harga ini dengan menawarkannya sebagai produk alternatif yang sepenuhnya aman dibanding air leding. </p>
<p>Tetapi air kemasan tidak kebal terhadap semua kontaminasi. Produk ini <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1220">jarang menghadapi peraturan kesehatan masyarakat dan lingkungan yang ketat</a> layaknya air keran yang merupakan utilitas publik.</p>
<p>Dalam <a href="https://inweh.unu.edu/global-bottled-water-industry-a-review-of-impacts-and-trends/">penelitian</a> yang baru-baru ini terbit, kami mempelajari 109 negara dan menyimpulkan bahwa industri air minum kemasan yang sangat menguntungkan dan berkembang pesat justru berujung menutupi kegagalan sistem publik untuk memasok air minum yang aman bagi seluruh masyarakat.</p>
<p>Industri ini dapat menghalangi progres pembangunan proyek air bersih, terutama di negara berpenghasilan rendah dan menengah, dengan mengalihkan perhatian konsumen ke suatu pilihan yang kurang dapat diandalkan dan kurang terjangkau.</p>
<h2>Industri air kemasan dapat mengganggu pembangunan berkelanjutan</h2>
<p>Industri air kemasan yang berkembang begitu pesat juga dapat mempengaruhi Tujuan Pembangunan Berkelanjutan (<a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">Sustainable Development Goals</a> atau SDGs) yang diusung oleh Perserikatan Bangsa-Bangsa (PBB). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Tumpukan sampah botol plastik." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516889/original/file-20230322-20-t3cg69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516889/original/file-20230322-20-t3cg69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516889/original/file-20230322-20-t3cg69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516889/original/file-20230322-20-t3cg69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516889/original/file-20230322-20-t3cg69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516889/original/file-20230322-20-t3cg69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516889/original/file-20230322-20-t3cg69.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meningkatnya penjualan air kemasan global berkontribusi terhadap polusi plastik di darat dan di lautan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://inweh.unu.edu/global-bottled-water-industry-a-review-of-impacts-and-trends/">Laporan terbaru dari UN University</a> mengungkap bahwa penjualan tahunan air minum kemasan secara global diproyeksikan naik dua kali lipat menjadi US$500 miliar (Rp 7.498 triliun) pada dekade ini.</p>
<p>Ekstraksi sumber daya untuk air minum kemasan dapat membuat wilayah yang kadar air tanahnya menurun semakin kekurangan air. Perkembangan bisnis air minum kemasan juga akan semakin berkontribusi terhadap polusi plastik di daratan dan lautan.</p>
<p>Tumbuh <a href="https://www.statista.com/study/55496/food-report-2021/">lebih cepat dibandingkan industri makanan dan minuman lainnya di seluruh dunia</a>, pasar air minum kemasan terbesar berada di Negara-Negara Selatan atau <em>Global South</em> (istilah untuk negara berkembang, umumnya di luar Amerika Serikat dan Eropa) – dengan Asia Pasifik, Afrika, serta Amerika Latin dan Karibia menyumbang 60% dari total penjualan.</p>
<p>Namun, tidak ada wilayah yang tampaknya akan berhasil mencapai akses universal terhadap layanan air bersih, yang merupakan <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal6">salah satu target SDGs 2030</a>.</p>
<p>Justru, dampak terbesar industri tersebut adalah potensinya untuk melumpuhkan progres negara-negara untuk menyediakan akses air minum yang adil dan terjangkau.</p>
<h2>Dampak terhadap negara-negara rentan</h2>
<p>Di Negara-Negara Utara atau <em>Global North</em> (merujuk pada negara-negara maju, terutama Amerika Serikat dan di Eropa), air kemasan sering dianggap lebih sehat dan enak daripada air leding. Oleh karena itu, air kemasan lebih merupakan barang mewah ketimbang kebutuhan. </p>
<p>Sementara itu, di Negara-Negara Selatan, kekurangan atau ketiadaan pasokan air publik dan infrastruktur pengelolaan air yang andal justru adalah hal yang yang mendorong berkembangnya pasar air minum kemasan.</p>
<p>Oleh karena itu, di banyak negara berpenghasilan rendah dan menengah, khususnya di Asia Pasifik, peningkatan konsumsi air kemasan dapat dilihat sebagai indikator yang secara tak langsung menunjukkan kegagalan pemerintah selama beberapa dekade untuk memenuhi komitmen terhadap sistem air publik yang aman.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Sekelompok orang mengisi air dari sebuah truk air." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516890/original/file-20230322-20-voxzso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516890/original/file-20230322-20-voxzso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516890/original/file-20230322-20-voxzso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516890/original/file-20230322-20-voxzso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516890/original/file-20230322-20-voxzso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516890/original/file-20230322-20-voxzso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516890/original/file-20230322-20-voxzso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Meningkatnya konsumsi air kemasan di beberapa negara dapat dilihat sebagai indikator proksi dari kegagalan pemerintah selama beberapa dekade untuk memenuhi komitmen terhadap sistem air publik yang aman.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hal ini semakin memperlebar kesenjangan global antara miliaran orang yang tidak memiliki akses ke layanan air yang aman dikonsumsi, dengan mereka yang menikmati air sebagai barang mewah.</p>
<p>Pada 2016, pendanaan tahunan yang dibutuhkan untuk mewujudkan pasokan air minum yang aman dikonsumsi di seluruh dunia diperkirakan mencapai <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/cfbfaf80-3930-5ffd-a5bf-6ded12a1340e">US$114 miliar</a>. Ini kurang dari setengah nilai penjualan tahunan air minum kemasan global yang berkisar US$270 miliar. </p>
<h2>Mengatur industri air minum kemasan</h2>
<p>Tahun lalu, Organisasi Kesehatan Dunia (WHO) memperkirakan bahwa untuk mencapai target SDGs 2030, <a href="https://www.unicef.org/reports/state-worlds-drinking-water">proges yang ada saat ini perlu ditingkatkan hingga empat kali lipat</a>. Namun, ini adalah tantangan yang luar biasa besar mengingat adanya berbagai kebutuhan pendanaan lain yang juga perlu diprioritaskan, ditambah sikap tak acuh yang mendominasi sektor air minum.</p>
<p>Seiring pertumbuhan pasar air minum kemasan, semakin penting untuk memperkuat regulasi yang mengatur industri ini dan standar kualitas airnya. Regulasi tersebut, misalnya, bisa mengatur kendali mutu air kemasan, eksploitasi air tanah, penggunaan lahan, pengelolaan limbah plastik, emisi karbon, kewajiban keuangan dan transparansi, dan lain-lain.</p>
<p>Penelitian kami berargumen bahwa, dengan upaya global untuk memenuhi kebutuhan air minum aman yang sejauh ini melenceng dari target, perluasan pasar air kemasan pada dasarnya semakin menghambat progres yang ada – atau setidaknya membuatnya menjadi lebih lamban. Hal ini akan berdampak buruk pada investasi dan infrastruktur air publik dalam jangka panjang.</p>
<p>Beberapa inisiatif tingkat tinggi, seperti aliansi <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/ceos-explore-solutions-to-bridge-annual-usd-4-3-trillion-sdg-financing-gap/">Global Investors for Sustainable Development</a>, bertujuan untuk meningkatkan pembiayaan untuk SDGs, termasuk yang terkait dengan air.</p>
<p>Prakarsa semacam ini menawarkan kesempatan bagi sektor air kemasan untuk menjadi pemain aktif dan membantu mempercepat langkah menuju pasokan air yang aman, khususnya di Negara-Negara Selatan.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zeineb Bouhlel bekerja untuk United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH). UNU-INWEH didukung oleh Pemerintah Kanada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Vladimir Smakhtin menerima dana dari Global Affairs Canada.</span></em></p>Industri air kemasan dapat merusak progres berbagai proyek yang bertujuan menciptakan sistem air bersih untuk semua, dengan mengalihkan perhatian ke pilihan yang kurang andal dan kurang terjangkau.Zeineb Bouhlel, Research Associate, Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), United Nations UniversityVladimir Smakhtin, Former Director of the Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), United Nations UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2022082023-03-28T16:38:11Z2023-03-28T16:38:11ZFour global problems that will be aggravated by the UK’s recent cuts to international aid<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517273/original/file-20230323-22-bajdav.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3837%2C2590&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flags fly outside the UN building in New York.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/flags-all-nations-outside-un-new-545605258">Andrew F. Kazmierski/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>UK economic forecasts have improved markedly since the September 2022 mini-budget. The economic recession may now be more shallow and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/21/uk-government-borrowing-energy-bills-interest-payments#:%7E:text=Borrowing%20in%20the%20financial%20year,expected%20decline%20in%20energy%20prices.%E2%80%9D">public borrowing lower than previously expected</a>. </p>
<p>However, faced with <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9428/#:%7E:text=The%20cost%20of%20living%20increased,goods%20and%20services%20for%20households.%22%22">persistently high</a> inflation and continued uncertainty caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, financial cuts remained the order of the day in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2023/spring-budget-2023-html">the UK government’s spring 2023 budget</a> announcement.</p>
<p>While Chancellor Jeremy Hunt introduced a £5 billion increase to military spending over the next two years, the international aid budget was <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/uk-aid-faces-third-major-cut-in-3-years-with-1-7b-to-be-cut-104513">cut for the third time in three years</a>. This is part of an increasingly concerning international trend.</p>
<p>UK aid has been <a href="https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/uk-aid-spending-statistics-and-recent-developments/">deceasing since 2019</a>. And the country is not alone in cutting its aid commitments. Sweden – one of the world’s leading donors in this area – is also set to <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/un-eu-push-back-as-sweden-drops-1-percent-aid-target-104228">abolish its target</a> of spending 1% of GDP on aid. Across several European countries, recent cuts have largely been driven by the <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/what-would-be-economic-consequences-military-stalemate-ukraine">Ukraine war</a>, as well as national pressures caused by the COVID pandemic. </p>
<p>And yet aid is sorely needed if the world is to meet the <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda?_gl=1*11b9zzk*_ga*Mzc5OTM3Mzc4LjE2NzMwMTAzNTU.*_ga_TK9BQL5X7Z*MTY3ODY5NjEwMy41LjAuMTY3ODY5NjEwMy4wLjAuMA..">2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development</a>, a plan to end world poverty agreed by UN members in 2015. The “<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/02/1133637">great finance divide</a>” – which sees some countries struggle to access resources and affordable finance for economic investment – continues to grow, according to the UN, leaving developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America more susceptible to shocks.</p>
<p>The UK and Europe’s support for Ukraine is admirable and much-needed. But when countries are faced with important domestic political and financial challenges, governments tend to look inwards – often in an attempt to rally their electorate. </p>
<p>Cuts to aid budgets are one example of this. For the UK in particular, neglecting multilateral solutions to important global challenges could actually exacerbate what are thought of as “domestic issues”. Our research highlights four such issues that could be affected by the UK’s budget cuts.</p>
<h2>1. Increasing poverty could affect global stability</h2>
<p>While the exact direction of the relationship remains up for <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/359271468739530199/pdf/multi-page.pdf">debate</a>, poverty is an important <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002702046001001">cause and effect of war</a>. We know that up to <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/publication/world-bank-group-strategy-for-fragility-conflict-and-violence-2020-2025">two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor</a> (defined as people earning less than $1.90 a day) will be concentrated in fragile and conflict-affected countries by 2030.</p>
<p>Research shows that aid promotes <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/aid-impact-and-effectiveness-0">economic growth</a>. So, reducing <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/publication/world-bank-group-strategy-for-fragility-conflict-and-violence-2020-2025">international aid</a> will only exacerbate these recent negative trends. According to the <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/governments-us-them-attitude-aid-29454405">chief executive of Oxfam GB</a>, aid is an investment in a more stable world – something that is in all of our interests.</p>
<h2>2. Extremism could spread as western influence falls</h2>
<p><a href="https://africacenter.org/in-focus/countering-violent-extremism-in-africa/">Violent extremism</a> is on the rise in Africa. It reduces international investment and undermines the rights of minority groups, women and girls. This goes against important UN <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">sustainable development goals</a> aimed at building peace and prosperity for the planet and its people.</p>
<p>Reducing international aid will create opportunities for new political actors to emerge and influence the direction of countries with weak government institutions. Cutting back western influence in international architecture (especially while these countries support a conflict in their own continent) may also be resented by <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/08/russia-ukraine-war-west-global-south-diplomacy-un-putin-g20/">countries in other parts of the world</a> that would like more support.</p>
<h2>3. Democracy could be threatened in some countries</h2>
<p>When aid is provided in the right way, it can <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/foreign-aid-can-help-stem-decline-democracy-if-used-right-way">give a boost</a> to democratic outcomes. Again, if western, democratic and liberal states don’t support countries struggling to tackle poverty and extremism, other actors could step in. </p>
<p>Russia’s increasing involvement in the Central African Republic and Burkina Faso are recent examples. Equally, China’s <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative">Belt and Road Initiative</a> (through which it lends money to other countries to build infrastructure) has significantly broadened its economic and political influence in many parts of the world. But some experts fear that China is laying a <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative">debt trap for borrowing governments</a>, whereby <a href="https://docs.aiddata.org/ad4/pdfs/How_China_Lends__A_Rare_Look_into_100_Debt_Contracts_with_Foreign_Governments.pdf">the contracts</a> agreed allow it to seize strategic assets when debtor countries run into financial problems.</p>
<p>The growing influence of both states may explain global trends towards <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029">democratic backsliding</a> because research shows <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2020.1799194">democratic stability</a> is often undermined in waves. In recent UN votes, Russia and China’s <a href="https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/do-countries-use-foreign-aid-buy-geopolitical-influence-0">growing influence</a> via such aid has been seen to bear fruit. For example, in October 2022 Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan –- both temporary members of the UN Human Rights council –- <a href="https://eurasianet.org/china-gets-central-asias-votes-russia-gets-its-silence">voted against a decision</a> to discuss human rights concerns in China’s Muslim-majority Xinjiang region.</p>
<h2>4. More countries could struggle to welcome refugees</h2>
<p>People flee their homes for many reasons but mostly due to conflict, violent extremism and poverty. Most refugees do not travel to western countries such as the UK, although the number of people arriving in small boats across the English Channel has <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/">risen substantially</a> recently.</p>
<p>But there are <a href="https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/what/humanitarian-aid/forced-displacement-refugees-asylum-seekers-and-internally-displaced-persons-idps_en#:%7E:text=08%2F07%2F2022-,Facts%20%26%20figures,53.2%20million%20internally%20displaced">more “internationally displaced people” than refugees</a>. That is, most people fleeing war remain in their country, while refugees tend to <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/">remain in neighbouring states</a>. </p>
<p>Turkey receives the highest numbers of refugees due to its proximity to the ongoing war in Syria, and <a href="https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine">Poland</a> welcomed the highest number of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>This, combined with the fact that countries most <a href="https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2023/">likely to experience conflict</a> are geographically distant from the UK, indicates that numbers seeking asylum in the UK will remain relatively low. But reducing aid will impose further pressures on poor countries that are already struggling to accommodate refugee flows, as well as increasing push factors for migration from fragile regions.</p>
<h2>International aid should be one of many solutions</h2>
<p>Failure to tackle global problems like poverty, extremism, and democratic backsliding could further destabilise fragile regions. This will have <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/how-many-lives-will-uks-aid-budget-reduction-really-cost">human costs</a> including increased numbers of desperate people attempting to cross the channel. </p>
<p>Aid is an investment in a more stable world. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b8e8d712-8e19-4935-b4cf-d6c4e30f0dd3">Deals with France</a> or the risk of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-61782866">deportation to Rwanda</a> will have limited impact on reducing the number of people arriving on small boats if the root causes of their migration are not tackled.</p>
<p>In our globalised world, looking inwards can only exacerbate these problems. It is crucial that states adopt multilateral solutions – including funding international aid programmes – to tackle global problems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202208/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patricia Justino receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kit Rickard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The UK is among countries cutting international aid payments, which could affect the world in four key areas: poverty, extremism, democracy and refugees.Patricia Justino, Professor and Senior Research Fellow, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations UniversityKit Rickard, Research Associate at UNU-WIDER, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.